Two of the Fed's most senior officials have signaled a pause on October 28, and the odds of an October hike have fallen to 20%. Bitcoin is still holding above its uptrend. Beneath the surface, though, stablecoin minting has dropped to the 7th percentile, our altseason model sits right at its flip threshold, and Ethereum options traders have just opened the largest put position of the week. Below, we break down where the smart money is positioning ahead of CPI, which strikes matter, and how to use low implied volatility to express a constructive view.

See also our report “Bitcoin: How Smart Traders Are Positioning This Month”.

 Crypto Market Cap (LHS, $trn) vs. Trading Volumes (RHS, $bn)

The macro backdrop looks grim. The euro is sliding, sending the dollar sharply higher, and a sell-off in French bonds is spilling over into Treasuries, pushing yields up just as both the ECB and the Fed have turned hawkish. Meanwhile, Trump is moving another aircraft carrier into the Middle East and, once again, threatening fresh strikes. On the surface, the risks are piling up. Yet we see a set of catalysts that could turn this macro risk into a major opportunity, as we explain below.

What makes this moment unusual is how tightly the catalysts are packed: three of them in barely two weeks. Professional traders know that timing is everything, and that the edge comes from recognizing when risk and reward are skewed in their favor.

A cluster of catalysts like this is the kind of setup traders wait for. The key is to identify each one in advance and position before it lands; right now, that positioning is unusually cheap. How long it stays that way depends on how quickly the rest of the market notices.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Anthropic IPO: The listing has slipped from October to after the midterms, though the prospectus points to a valuation above $2 trillion. Prediction-market odds have eased from 96% into the 80s as sentiment cools across AI stocks.

AI-infrastructure derating: Sell ratings on CoreWeave and Nebius over falling GPU prices undercut the contracted cash flows that miners' HPC pivots are valued on. The neoclouds kept falling even as the Nasdaq rose, a sign of sector-specific pressure.

This week split the crypto market in two. Bitcoin barely moved, yet AI-hosting miners such as Riot, Hut 8 and Marathon fell 15–18% as the AI-infrastructure trade was derated and Treasury yields climbed above 5%. Altcoins went the other way: Pump. fun rose 47%, while Worldcoin, THORChain, Ethena, Sei and NEAR all gained more than 20%.

Token buybacks, new ETFs and tokenized-stock launches drove those moves rather than broad market momentum. Knowing which catalysts actually moved prices, and which were sell-the-news events, is what separates a durable rally from a trap.

Below, we break down the drivers behind more than 60 assets across crypto, crypto equities and macro.

We went into August expecting the month to confirm that Bitcoin's bear-market low was in (here). Our cycle indicator looked like a volleyball held underwater, coiled and ready to burst higher. The catalyst came on August 19, when news broke that US federal debt had crossed $40 trillion. Bitcoin jumped, and within a week it was trading at $80,000. It then slipped back to $76,000 as fears of a hawkish Fed grew. When Fed Chair Warsh signaled that policy would remain accommodative, Bitcoin surged to $86,000 in less than a week. This is typical: Bitcoin doesn't grind higher; it explodes when a catalyst ignites it. October has historically been rich in catalysts.

This report brings three independent signals together into a single roadmap: the minimum level this bull market should reach, where it is most likely to peak, roughly when, and which signal will tell us to turn cautious. For investors deciding how much risk to carry into Q4, the answer shapes both today's positioning and the exit plan for the next two years.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. RSI (RHS) - from oversold to overbought?

Monetary policy and interest rates rank among the most important drivers of Bitcoin. With the US 10-year yield now at its highest close since 2007, a new regime is firmly in place.

Viewed over a 60-year horizon, US bond yields have moved in long, persistent waves: rising from the 1960s into the early 1980s, falling for four decades until 2020, and trending higher ever since. Yields do not simply mean-revert; they trend, and these trends take years, often decades, to play out. To frame where yields could be heading, we have built two fair value models.

Fair value is only part of the story. Just as important is why yields are rising and what the technical setup says about risk and reward from here. This report runs longer than usual because the topic is timely and the argument rests on several connected ideas: the fiscal regime shift, the term premium, the Fed's new stance, and the yield chart setup. Each matters for how Bitcoin trades from here.

US 10-year Treasury yield and its 100-month moving average (%)

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The S&P 500 has traded sideways for four months, oil has jumped from $68 to $94, and the odds of a Democratic sweep in November have climbed to 61%. Yet crypto volumes are rising, ETFs have taken in $3 billion since the September FOMC, and options traders are building large upside positions into the October 30 expiry. The presidential cycle points to a turn in about two weeks. Below, we show which levels matter, where the smart money is positioned, and why higher mortgage rates may be good news for crypto.

This Sunday/Monday crypto kickoff walks through the data points driving market structure, flows, and positioning this week, blended with the macro backdrop and technicals that could shift the narrative in the days ahead. It's a short-term-focused read, grounded in data, interpreted through our lens, and built to prepare you for the week ahead.

Midterm election odds: Democrats Sweep (LHS) vs. Oil prices (RHS)

When Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin white paper on October 31, 2008, the individual ideas in it were not new. The building blocks had existed for years, some for more than a decade: Merkle trees, cryptographic timestamping, Adam Back's Hashcash proof-of-work, and Wei Dai's b-money and Nick Szabo's bit gold concepts.

What was new was how Satoshi combined them. Even the feature most closely associated with Bitcoin today, the fixed cap of 21 million coins, was not the founding idea. The white paper refers only to "a predetermined number of coins" and never gives a figure or a halving schedule. Both appeared for the first time in January 2009, when Satoshi released the software.

When Satoshi mined the first block on January 3, 2009, he embedded a headline from that day's Times of London: "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." Technically, the headline proved the block could not have been created before that date, because it tied a digital record to a physical, dated event. The headline choice also said something. It pointed straight at the 2008 financial crisis and at governments creating money to rescue reckless private institutions. It serves as Bitcoin's implicit mission statement: a peer-to-peer currency independent of central banks and government bailouts.

In this report, we set out the true return hurdle investors face. US debt has compounded steadily since long before 2008, while inflation broke out of its post-2008 slump in 2020. We think this new regime of high debt growth with higher inflation is here to stay, particularly with a Fed that remains accommodative and reluctant to tighten. We also map the relationship between bitcoin and GDP, and show how to identify when bitcoin trades below fair value, and by how much.

US CPI Index (LHS) vs. US Debt outstanding (RHS, $ trillion)

Bitcoin cleared the debt hurdle, but it wasn't the only asset that did, and one group of equities beat gold by a wide margin. In the latest 10x What Matters, we rank more than 30 assets against all three hurdles and identify what to own and what to avoid for the rest of this regime.

Crypto equities beat traditional assets by a wide margin this week. MicroStrategy (+29%), CEA Industries (+28%), BitGo (+26%), and Bullish (+25%) led the gains, followed closely by Bit Digital, Sharplink, Bitmine, Riot, Marathon, and Coinbase, all up between +20% and +24%. Most crypto-linked stocks beat Bitcoin's +11% gain, signaling leveraged risk appetite through treasury companies, miners pivoting to AI, and exchange platforms. Traditional markets were much quieter: the Nasdaq gained +5% and the S&P 500 +2%, while the dollar (+1%) and the 10-year yield (+2%) edged higher. Gold (-1%) and the bond ETF (-1%) were the only decliners.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

When Bitcoin traded at 63,000 on August 18, 2026, we turned bullish. We had expected a Bitcoin cycle bottom to be confirmed in August, and our early-August reports laid out how to position for the upturn through Bitcoin call options, which returned 10x that month. Most investors stayed skeptical, waiting for a news catalyst to confirm the low. Some would have loved to see the CLARITY Act pass and take it as the golden signal that all was clear. But trading does not work that way. No headline marks the bottom.

We expected the low to arrive during the year's most boring stretch, and at the beginning of the year, we correctly identified that period as the FIFA World Cup, when interest in Bitcoin was at its weakest. As we wrote in our August 3, 2026 report, 63,000 was the only number that mattered. Today, more traders are gaining confidence that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market. In today's report, we identify the minimum target for this bull market, derived, as always, from our analytical process.

Bitcoin (LHS) vs. its 1-year moving average

Bitcoin is breaking higher, and while some may point to Russia’s growing interest in crypto as a catalyst, the underlying setup had already been signaling the potential for higher prices. Our technical and on-chain indicators had been improving, and in August we indicated that the cycle low was likely in. Since then, we have progressively increased our beta exposure, particularly in altcoins, where our model portfolio is now up 52% year-to-date (here).

Our crypto equity portfolio, comprising four trades for the next 6–12 months, is up 24% since August (here), with neither figure including any gains from today’s move.

Below, we explain the technical setup, identify Bitcoin's next key levels, and examine what's driving the latest move. Understanding these factors can help traders assess whether they have the appropriate exposure and positioning for the next phase of the market.

What Is Bitcoin’s Next Key Technical Upside Level?

With the Fed potentially moving more slowly than markets expect, new U.S. crypto and tokenization initiatives advancing, and major Trump meetings with Gulf leaders and Xi ahead, the market is entering an important week. We explain what these meetings might mean for the markets, how we would be positioned, and what technical levels and signals to monitor.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

This week's crypto tape split sharply: bitcoin and majors like XRP stayed pinned below key moving averages as the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, while a handful of altcoins, DeFi infrastructure names among them, ripped 20-35% on real fee-burn and institutional-adoption catalysts most traders haven't clocked yet.

On the equity side, the AI-pivot story among bitcoin miners is forking hard, with one name locking in a multi-billion-dollar, decade-plus data center lease that's reshaping how the whole sector should be valued, and it's not the one getting the headlines.

It's no surprise that this week's top charts have also been among the strongest over the past few weeks; here are the names and themes investors should be focused on.

Full ticker-by-ticker breakdown, weekly moves, and our read on which of these moves has legs below.

Fed Chair Warsh notched a credibility win as every Fed governor lined up behind his hawkish stance that inflation remains too high. The Fed cited a stronger labor market as one justification, but that's a stretch; job growth this year has only barely cleared the breakeven rate, averaging 81k per month against current estimates putting breakeven anywhere from 20-90k.

The real driver was the market forcing the Fed's hand: higher oil prices pushed hawkish repricing that the Fed ultimately validated. With one more hike still expected this year, this fits the classic hiking sequence, and the key variable now is the US dollar. A stronger dollar has historically been bearish for Bitcoin.

Investors should keep in mind that conditions can shift quickly. A year ago, markets were promised a dovish Fed chair; instead, we got a hawkish one. Three rate cuts were expected in 2026; instead, we've gotten two hikes (likely). An energy oversupply was promised; instead we have shortages and $100 oil. Trillions in tariff revenue were promised; instead, US debt has eclipsed $40 trillion. The macro backdrop can turn fast, and investors need to be ready to react.

Considering all this, how does our positioning change from buying protection into the FOMC meeting, when the risk of a more hawkish outcome was high, based on the historical precedent of how these hiking cycles tend to start? How should we be positioned now?

 10-year treasury yield

During his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair in June, Warsh said that "financial markets are probably the most important source of information to guide central banks," and with the market now pricing in a 93.5% probability of a rate hike, the Fed will have to deliver. Notably, Warsh explicitly rejected the kind of "forward guidance" that former Chair Janet Yellen used so effectively, consistently leaning dovish in a way that helped keep the asset rally moving.

This isn't the first time Trump has tried to reshape the Fed's tone. During his first term, Trump replaced the dovish, but Democratic-leaning Yellen with a relatively hawkish Powell, a choice that ultimately worked against his monetary policy goals. Installing Warsh now looks like a further bet on hawkishness. But the underlying inflation backdrop is arguably self-inflicted: had the U.S. not struck Iran at the end of February 2026, oil prices would likely have stayed in the $55–65 range, limiting both the direct hit to inflation and the political cover it has since provided for broader price increases.

As we explain below, this has become a very high price to pay, not only for consumers, but for Republicans as well. We also lay out what we think this means for risk assets.

SP500 (LHS) vs Crude Oil (RHS)

A week ago, it looked as though Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish comments would fall on deaf ears. But two inflation reports have since reshaped bond market pricing heading into tomorrow's FOMC meeting. With economic data and corporate profits still strong, Wall Street economists remain broadly upbeat. Still, historical precedent suggests traders may want to get more proactive rather than stay as complacent as derivatives markets currently imply. It's worth revisiting some historical examples and rethinking Warsh's own communication style. Importantly, traders can still prepare ahead of this meeting so that, unlike many other investors, they don't get caught offside.

S&P 500 performance

How Much Bitcoin Should a Multi-Asset Portfolio Hold?

Stop Guessing. Run the Numbers.

Ask ten allocators how much Bitcoin a diversified portfolio should hold, and you will get ten different numbers, delivered with roughly equal confidence. One percent, because it is “just in case.” Five percent, because that is what the last conference panel settled on. Forty percent, because someone believes the fiat system ends this decade. None of these numbers come from a framework. They come from a feeling, anchored to whatever number the person heard most recently repeated.

That is not a criticism of any individual view on Bitcoin. It criticizes how portfolio sizing gets decided once a view exists. Believing Bitcoin will outperform equities over the next year is a forecast. Turning that forecast into a specific portfolio weight- 3%, 10%, 25%- is a completely different problem, and it is the one almost everyone skips. We built a framework that doesn't skip it, and this issue explains how it works and why we think it is the right way to answer the question every allocator with a Bitcoin view eventually has to answer: not “will it go up,” but “how much.”

The bond market is now pricing an 86% probability of a Fed rate hike this week, but the more important question for positioning is what comes next. What are the odds for the subsequent meetings, and what would a multi-hike sequence mean for stocks and for Bitcoin? We walk through how traders should structure positions for a scenario where the Fed doesn't stop at one.

That's not the only catalyst on deck. The Clarity Act could see real progress this week, but the key question is whether that progress is market-moving beyond an initial knee-jerk reaction, and if not, what the next hurdle looks like before it matters. Arguably more consequential than either of these, though, is geopolitical risk, and not just the oil-price angle, which remains a genuine factor in its own right, but a less-discussed AI risk building around the Trump-Xi meeting.

In short, there are a lot of cross-currents and a lot of ground to cover in this week’s kickoff report to navigate markets right now, but this is not the time for complacency. There are practical ways to protect the portfolio while keeping realistic upside exposure, because it will take more than an inflation print alone to derail risk assets.

One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.

Bitcoin slipped 5.1% as hot labor data revived Fed hike bets and a Liquid Network exploit rattled nerves, yet altcoins told a wildly different story. Near (+28.8%), Raydium (+72.4%), and Kaspa (+23%) ripped higher on AI/DePIN narratives, buybacks, and supply-cap milestones, while Polkadot (+26.8%) and Cosmos (+19%) rode ETF and institutional-integration momentum. Meanwhile, majors like Circle (-12.5%), Robinhood (-9.1%), and Bitmine (-8.5%) sold off despite genuinely bullish headlines, Arc's looming launch, record Layer-2 fee generation, and a 65th straight ETH buy, a reminder that price and fundamentals aren't always in sync right now.

On the macro side, a surging yen hammered the dollar to multi-month lows, gold dropped 3% on that dollar weakness even as Middle East tensions kept oil elevated, and Treasury yields climbed on mounting debt-supply concerns ahead of critical CPI/PPI prints.

In mining and AI infrastructure, the pivot from Bitcoin hashrate to AI compute accelerated, Hut 8's tie to Anthropic's $35B Nvidia/Lambda deal and Iren's $2.4B financing round stood out as the sector's infrastructure buildout hits full stride.

Full breakdown of all 30+ tickers inside.

Is Coinbase (RHS) failing to keep up with Bitcoin (LHS)? Or undervalued?

Our Wednesday report flagged an upward bias for Friday's inflation release, and Thursday's PPI print has only heightened market concern that a September 16 rate hike is now possible. The probability of that hike has climbed from 42% following Fed Governor Waller's speech to 71.5% today, so the market's bias has clearly shifted toward expecting a hike.

Based on some of our CPI models, which we explain below, this concern may be justified when looking purely at the data, but other considerations are at play. How are traders pricing Bitcoin's move over the next 36 hours as the CPI print hits the market? And how are they positioning for Bitcoin's move after the FOMC meeting?

We break this down below, along with an important factor with $6.6 billion at stake and how it could shape Bitcoin's reaction to both the CPI data and the Fed decision.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (LHS) vs. US CPI YoY (RHS)