Is Halloween even a holiday anymore, or just an annual exercise in wasting resources? 😂

It was adorable when our girls were little. Princess costumes, 20 or 30 houses, a few pictures, and home before bedtime. Great memories.

But watching Halloween unfold Saturday night, I couldn't help wondering what we're doing. Kids hauling pillowcases overflowing with candy they'll never eat, while the rest of us spend all year trying to eat healthier/injecting GLP1s. How much of that candy ends up in the trash?

I get the spooky/dress-up angle of Halloween. Maybe I'm just getting old, but the candy thing feels a little ridiculous.

Anyway, we wasted no time moving on. By yesterday afternoon, the pumpkins were gone, the Christmas music was playing, the tree was decorated, and the garland was hung.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the high 6’s.

The Real Estate Industry Is Fighting Over Who Gets to See Your House

Imagine putting your home up for sale, only to discover that some potential buyers might never know it exists because they're working with the wrong brokerage.

That's the controversy brewing around private listings, and last week it got a whole lot more interesting.

Keller Williams, HomeServices of America, AGNT (parent of eXp Realty and NextHome), and Real REMAX Group announced they're joining forces to create something called Open Real Estate.

Why would companies that compete fiercely for agents and listings suddenly work together?

One big reason is the growing battle over private listings, particularly the strategy championed by Compass. Compass argues that sellers deserve more control over how and when their homes are marketed, including the ability to test pricing privately before going public. Critics argue that keeping listings inside one brokerage's ecosystem limits buyer access and could eventually force agents to join whichever company controls the most inventory.

And that's where things get interesting.

For decades, the MLS has been one of real estate's great equalizers. A two-person brokerage can generally access the same listings as a company with thousands of agents. But what happens if the most valuable inventory starts living outside that shared system?

Open Real Estate is an attempt to address that concern. Participating brokerages will contribute listings to a shared platform that can distribute them across brokerages, MLSs, and real estate websites. It's designed to complement the MLS, not replace it.

Here's the twist: Open Real Estate will also allow private listings. The difference is that participating brokerages can share those listings within a broader network instead of keeping them exclusively inside one company. Sellers would still have options for controlling their property's exposure.

Of course, there's a competitive angle here, too. Access to listings helps brokerages attract agents, and the data itself has enormous value. This isn't purely a philosophical debate about transparency. There's real money and market share at stake.

And the timing couldn't be better for us. Jason Abrams from Keller Williams and James Dwiggins from NextHome will both be on our Rebel Royale stage this February. Howard Hanna, another major brokerage that hasn't committed to joining Open Real Estate, will also be represented on stage. I'm particularly interested in hearing how these leaders see the future of listing distribution.

I've been wondering whether this private-listing battle is really about something much bigger than who gets to see a house. Think about how homebuilders operate. They control the inventory, often have preferred lenders and title companies, and try to keep as much of the transaction inside their ecosystem as possible. Could the giant real estate brokerages be moving toward that same model?

Ultimately, I keep coming back to one question: Should the brokerage you work with determine which homes you get to see?

Sellers deserve informed choices about how their homes are marketed, and buyers deserve a fair opportunity to discover what's available. Whether Open Real Estate improves that balance remains to be seen.

Your Credit Score Might Be Worth $2,500

A few weeks ago, I wrote about something I never thought I'd be doing as a loan officer: shopping credit scores.

For decades, Classic FICO was essentially the only scoreboard that mattered for conventional mortgages. Now lenders can use VantageScore 4.0 on eligible Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, and the two models are operating under aligned loan-level pricing adjustment grids.

That's important because the same borrower can receive different scores depending on which model evaluates their credit.

And now we're getting some real-world results.

Last week, CrossCountry Mortgage reported that during its first 60 days using VantageScore 4.0, loans receiving a more favorable score saw an average 0.62% improvement in loan-level pricing adjustments, translating to approximately $2,500 in estimated savings per transaction.

Here's what that actually means.

Imagine a borrower with a $400,000 mortgage. A 0.62% pricing improvement is worth approximately $2,480. At the same interest rate, that's potentially $2,480 less in upfront points or other pricing costs. Alternatively, the lender might use that improvement to offer a better rate or a larger lender credit.

Same borrower. Same credit history. Potentially thousands of dollars in better pricing.

Now, don't assume everyone will save $2,500. CrossCountry's results only include loans where VantageScore produced a more favorable outcome, and we don't know what percentage of all evaluated borrowers benefited. Some people will actually score lower under VantageScore.

But here's another interesting development. FICO is reportedly considering a subscription-based pricing model for mortgage lenders in 2027, allowing lenders to pay a volume-based subscription rather than purchasing every score individually. FICO has also introduced a program holding certain wholesale score pricing at $10 for participating lenders.

Why now? Competition. VantageScore is challenging a market FICO has dominated for decades, and lenders finally have more choices.

Of course, a subscription doesn't automatically mean lower costs. Pricing, usage requirements and credit-report vendor fees will determine whether lenders actually save money. But I'm hopeful this competition eventually helps drive down the cost of credit reports, too.

Better mortgage pricing AND cheaper credit reporting? That's the kind of competition I'd love to see.

James Clear. Damon West. Liz Bohannon. And that’s just the start.

Tickets are officially live for Rebel 2027! Here’s what you get…

DAY 1 | THE MAIN STAGE
When: Wednesday Feb 10, 2027
Where: Greater Columbus Convention Center

Line-up: Damon West. Liz Bohannon. Ken Pozek. Ricky Carruth. Erica Wolfe. Devon Brown, and so many more...

REBEL ROYALE
The only place where real estate's top brokerage owners answering the questions they usually only answer behind closed doors.

You haven't seen anything like it...

DAY 2 | VIP DAY
When: Thursday Feb 11, 2027
Where: Prototype Museum, Columbus

VIP isn't just better seats this year. It's a second day. Here’s what you get:

• Both days of Rebel 2027

• A private VIP workshop with James Clear, author of Atomic Habits

• Six Post-event VIP Exclusive Coaching Sessions with some of our Rebel 2027 speakers

All this included in your ticket!

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Happy Halloween week, everyone! 🎃 This weekend, Katie and I took the family up to Cedar Point for HalloWeekends, and let me tell you, they take Halloween to a whole new level. From the decor to the shows to the monsters roaming the streets, it’s next level. If you haven’t been, I highly recommend it (just maybe skip the haunted houses if you have kids! 😂).

Luckily, nothing in this week’s newsletter is quite that scary, but there’s plenty happening in the housing world worth talking about. Let’s dive in!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 6's.

The White House Takes Aim at Housing Costs

Ever notice how the big policy moves always seem to show up right before an election? Maybe every politician should be a month or two away from losing their job at all times. We might get a lot more done! 😂

Sure enough, with the midterms almost here, the current administration signed an executive order last week aimed at housing affordability. The focus: lowering mortgage costs, simplifying refinances, and making homes cheaper to build. Let's break it down:

1. Ditching PMI Could Get a Lot Easier

Today, if you have a Conventional loan and think your home has appreciated enough to hit 20% equity, removing PMI is your job. You reach out to your servicer, pay for an appraisal, and wait it out.

A new pilot program would change that. Servicers would use automated valuation models to regularly check home values, and once you cross the equity threshold, PMI could drop off automatically. No phone calls, no appraisal fee, no headache. Honestly, it should have worked this way all along.

2. Refis Without a Traditional Title Policy?

My title company homies probably won’t love this one! 😂

The order expands a pilot that allows certain refinances to use an automated title review instead of a standard lender’s title insurance policy. The goal is lower closing costs. If it takes off, refinancing could become cheaper and a lot less complicated.

3. Factory-Built Homes to Help Bring Down Building Costs

A new task force will focus on growing modern factory-built housing, with the goal of making construction faster, more efficient, and less expensive by clearing out some of the roadblocks to production. Honestly, it’s overdue. Building costs have gotten out of hand.

These moves hit three areas that could make a real dent in affordability: mortgage insurance, refinance costs, and new construction. Just remember, these are pilot programs and policy proposals, so how much they actually help will come down to how they’re rolled out and how widely they’re adopted.

America’s Biggest Homebuilder Is Bringing in the Robots 🤖

I’ll be honest, I’m one of those people convinced AI is going to take over the world. Katie (my wife) rolls her eyes every time I bring it up. But thanks to D.R. Horton, I might finally get to say “I told you so.”

The nation’s largest homebuilder just signed a multiyear deal with Canadian firm Promise Robotics to produce 1,250+ homes using its AI-powered factory platform.

Now, considering D.R. Horton built more than 85,000 homes last year, that’s a drop in the bucket. But it’s a pretty big signal that they’re testing the factory-built waters. Honestly, I’m surprised it took this long. When new construction is getting increasingly expensive, using robots to build homes more efficiently makes a lot of sense for a publicly traded builder.

Here’s what caught my attention:

• No factories to build. Promise’s “Factory-as-a-Service” model gives D.R. Horton access to automated production without the massive upfront investment and headache of operating its own factories.

• It works with existing floor plans. AI converts home designs into manufacturing instructions. Robots produce components like walls, floors, and stairs, and crews assemble everything on-site.

• The speed is wild. Promise says it can assemble the framing for a typical 1,800-square-foot home in about eight hours. That’s the framing, not the entire house, but still pretty impressive!

So, did we just solve the housing affordability crisis??

Potentially! If builders can construct homes faster and cheaper, they have more flexibility to offer better prices, reduce buyer incentives, or protect profit margins when the market gets tough. Now, whether builders actually pass those savings along to buyers is a different story 🫠

If these robots can deliver meaningful savings at scale, we could be watching the beginning of a pretty significant shift in how America builds homes.

And Katie might want to start taking my AI obsession a little more seriously. 😂

The Midterms Won’t Magically Lower Mortgage Rates

Last week, a real estate agent asked me a question I hear all the time: “Where do you think rates are headed?” But then she added something that caught me off guard. “Another lender told me rates are definitely going to improve after the election. They always do once we know who’s in office.”

My answer? It’s not that simple.

In less than two weeks, all 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are up for grabs. Plenty of people in our industry are counting on rates dropping once the votes are counted. I am not going to hold my breath.

Glen Weinberg, COO at Fairview Commercial Lending, made a point recently that I couldn’t agree with more. The party in the White House usually loses ground in the midterms, and a divided Congress rarely gets much done. So the biggest drivers of our deficit (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and defense spending) likely stay right where they are, no matter who wins.

So, why should you care? All that government borrowing keeps pressure on long-term rates, and our aging population adds to it. Election Day doesn’t change either one.

Weinberg sees 30-year rates sitting between 7% and 8%, which he calls “the new normal,” and the MBA’s forecast has rates staying above 7% through next year. Historically, that’s not crazy. We all know what’s different is home prices. A 7.5% rate on a $150k home? No big deal. On a $450k home? That hurts.

Moving forward, we need to stop telling buyers to wait for rates to fall after the election. That’s a promise nobody can keep. We can’t control Washington or the bond market. We can control how well we prepare our clients for the market in front of us. That’s where the opportunity is.

James Clear. Damon West. Liz Bohannon. And that’s just the start.

Tickets are officially live for Rebel 2027! Here’s what you get…

DAY 1 | THE MAIN STAGE
When: Wednesday Feb 10, 2027
Where: Greater Columbus Convention Center

Line-up: Damon West. Liz Bohannon. Ken Pozek. Ricky Carruth. Erica Wolfe. Devon Brown, and so many more...

REBEL ROYALE
The only place where real estate's top brokerage owners answering the questions they usually only answer behind closed doors.

You haven't seen anything like it...

DAY 2 | VIP DAY
When: Thursday Feb 11, 2027
Where: Prototype Museum, Columbus

VIP isn't just better seats this year. It's a second day. Here’s what you get:

• Both days of Rebel 2027

• A private VIP workshop with James Clear, author of Atomic Habits

• Six Post-event VIP Exclusive Coaching Sessions with some of our Rebel 2027 speakers

All this included in your ticket!

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Last night at dinner, I shared something with the girls that I picked up at The Reserve in Chicago last week. A small group of mortgage professionals spent the day exchanging ideas, and while there were plenty of great takeaways, one phrase really stuck with me: “Sometimes people settle for good enough.”

I've been thinking about that ever since. Sometimes the biggest obstacle to achieving something great isn't failure. It's getting comfortable with something that's already pretty good.

It's a lesson I hope the girls remember, and frankly, one I need to remind myself of more often. Good enough is comfortable. But comfort rarely leads to extraordinary things.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low 7’s.

What Happens to Home Prices When Property Taxes Disappear?

Imagine I told you tomorrow that your $500 monthly property tax bill was disappearing. You'd probably be thrilled. But what if I told you the next buyer might be willing to pay $40,000 more for your house because of it?

That's the fascinating economic question behind Florida's latest push to reduce property taxes.

Florida voters are considering a proposal to significantly expand property tax exemptions for qualifying primary residences. It's important to note that the actual proposal doesn't eliminate all property taxes, particularly those funding schools. But it raises a much bigger question: What would happen if property taxes disappeared entirely?

According to Realtor.com, eliminating property taxes completely could increase Florida home values by an estimated 7% to 9%, potentially adding $200 billion to $250 billion in aggregate housing value.

And when you think about how we qualify borrowers, that makes perfect sense.

Let's say you're purchasing a $400,000 house with $4,800 in annual property taxes. Eliminate that $400 monthly expense, and suddenly you have considerably more purchasing power. But so does every other buyer competing for that house.

The number of homes hasn't changed. Just the amount people can afford to bid for them.

Economists call this tax capitalization. When the ongoing cost of owning something decreases, buyers may be willing to pay more upfront to own it.

Existing homeowners could win twice, enjoying lower monthly expenses while watching their property values rise. First-time buyers might save on their monthly payment but face larger down payments and higher purchase prices.

And there's another wrinkle. Property taxes fund schools, police, fire departments, roads and other local services. If that revenue disappears, somebody still has to pay for those things. Whether through other taxes, fees or reduced services, the bill doesn't necessarily vanish.

I'm all for making homeownership more affordable. But here's the question I keep coming back to:

If we make owning a house cheaper but buying one more expensive, did we actually solve the affordability problem?

10 Ways Your Next Mortgage Could Get Cheaper.

We've spent years talking about how to make housing more affordable. Lower rates, lower prices, more inventory, government assistance. But what if we started by making the actual process of getting a mortgage less expensive?

Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released a white paper called Affordability in Action, outlining policy recommendations to reduce borrowing costs, eliminate unnecessary expenses, and make homeownership more accessible.

Some of the ideas are pretty straightforward. Others would require meaningful changes to mortgage regulations. Here's the plain-English version:

1. Cheaper credit reports: Reduce unnecessary three-bureau credit reporting for eligible borrowers.

2. Lower mortgage pricing adjustments: Reduce and simplify the fees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge based on borrower and loan characteristics.

3. Cut FHA mortgage insurance: Lower annual premiums to reduce monthly payments for FHA borrowers.

4. Modernize appraisals: Expand automated valuations and appraisal alternatives where appropriate.

5. Reduce title insurance costs: Find ways to lower title-related closing expenses.

6. More competitive mortgage pricing: Give lenders greater flexibility to match competing loan offers.

7. Streamline underwriting: Use technology to reduce processing costs and delays.

8. Improve condo financing: Address lending restrictions that make certain condos difficult to finance.

9. Expand renovation financing: Make it easier to finance improvements to existing homes.

10. Encourage new construction: Improve financing options that help bring more housing supply to market.

One proposal that caught my attention is reducing FHA's annual mortgage insurance premium by 0.20 percentage points. On a $400,000 loan, that's approximately $800 per year, or $67 per month in potential savings.

That's meaningful money without needing home prices or mortgage rates to fall.

Of course, these are proposals, not approved changes, and some costs exist for legitimate reasons. But I like that we're discussing ways to make the mortgage process more efficient instead of constantly looking for ways to subsidize demand.

The irony? We just discussed how the new appraisal format could increase appraisal fees by $100, $200 or more. Sometimes it feels like we're trying to lose weight by clipping our fingernails.

If You Lost Everything, What Would You Keep?

Years ago, Kreg and I started Rebel with a small group of people with a simple goal: create something that brought real value to our city and the people building businesses here. We weren't trying to build some massive event. We just wanted to bring great minds together, share ideas, and hopefully send people home better than they arrived.

Somewhere along the way, Rebel became something much bigger than we ever imagined. And watching that happen has been one of the more rewarding things we've done together.

This year's theme is a question I've been thinking about a lot: If you lost everything you'd built professionally, what would you take with you to rebuild?

Not your office, your marketing budget, or your fancy CRM. I'm talking about the relationships, lessons, instincts, and decisions that helped you build something meaningful in the first place.

This Wednesday, October 21 at noon ET, we're revealing our speakers, event date, locations, and ticket options live on YouTube. Some of our keynote speakers will join us, including people who've built remarkable businesses and rarely share what really happens behind the scenes.

Some names you'll recognize instantly. Others you'll be glad you discovered.

Tickets open during the broadcast, and those who register will receive the ticket link first.

What started as a way to give something back to our community has become something I'm incredibly proud to help build. And I can't wait to show you what's next.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Nick and I just got back from a conference in Chicago, and we’re officially obsessed with that city. The food, the architecture, the energy...what’s not to love? If you ever find yourself there, do yourself a favor and spend an evening exploring the West Loop. Incredible restaurants, great vibes, and plenty to keep you busy. One word of advice, though: don’t openly cheer for the Cleveland Guardians at a Chicago bar during a divisional playoff game 😅 We may have left with a few less friends, but at least our love for Ohio is still intact!

Speaking of which, let’s dive into what’s happening in the market this week.

Let's gooooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGHER. Rates are in the mid 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 7's.

Mortgage Rates Finally Take a Breather!

Nobody is more bullish on real estate than Nick and me. This business has given us everything, and we believe in it with every ounce of our soul. But we’re not going to sugarcoat it. Watching rates creep higher week after week since mid-August has been freaking painful.

So this week felt like the first real exhale we’ve had in a while. Rates actually moved LOWER! Not dramatically, but enough to notice.

So why the improvement? Think of U.S. bonds like concert tickets. When nobody wants them, the price has to drop until people start buying. We’ve been in that situation for months. Between a war with no end in sight, $40 trillion in national debt, and no plan to get spending under control, foreign investors and bond buyers have been taking a hard pass on U.S. bonds. When demand is weak, bond prices fall, yields rise, and mortgage rates follow them higher.

But something interesting happened at last week’s bond auction. Demand came back, and buyers actually showed up! That tells us we may have finally hit a ceiling on how high yields can climb before investors decide the return is worth it. When bond demand picks up, yields settle down and mortgage rates improve.

Is this the start of a real downward trend? That depends almost entirely on one report this week. The September inflation data drops this Wednesday. Cool inflation will keep pushing rates lower. Hot inflation, and we’re right back on our march toward 8%+.

Circle October 14th on your calendar. It matters more than almost anything else happening in the market right now.

Ohio Is Still One of the Best Places to Buy a Starter Home

Nick and I read a lot of housing reports. Most of them confirm what we already know. But the Realtor.com October 2026 starter home report genuinely surprised us.

The most eye-opening stat was the price of what even qualifies as a starter home today. The national average has climbed from $260,000 to $340,000 in just seven years. That’s $80k of appreciation on the most affordable homes in America in less than a decade 👀

But the part that really got us was this: single-family homes are quietly being phased out of the starter home conversation altogether. As prices have spiraled higher, condos have stepped in as the new entry-level option for first-time buyers across the country. We see it play out every single day. Many first-time buyers have nowhere to turn but condos because a single-family home has simply moved out of reach. The definition of a starter home is changing right before our eyes, and most buyers have no idea it’s happening.

As startling as these numbers are, Ohio is holding its own. Toledo just ranked number one in the entire country for starter home availability with 42.1% of all listings falling into the starter home category. Akron came in right behind at 39.3%. Both cities are leading the nation for first time buyer opportunity. And right here in Central Ohio, Columbus carries a median home price of $350,000, well below the national average of $429,100.

The horror stories about unaffordable housing are absolutely real in California, New York, and Florida. They’re just not the full story here. Ohio is one of the last places in America where a first-time buyer can still find a real starter home at a real price, and that’s something we refuse to stop talking about.

Bond Programs Aren’t the Automatic Win They Used to Be

Even with this week’s dip, rates are still well above where they started the year. Everyone knows that’s hurting buyers. But there’s a quieter problem few people in our industry are talking about, and it’s hitting the clients Nick and I serve the hardest.

State bond programs.

How they’re supposed to work

Most states, including Ohio through the Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA), have a housing agency that funds its programs by selling tax-exempt bonds to investors. Because the interest is free from federal income tax, investors accept a lower return than they would get on other investments, allowing the agency to borrow at a low cost.

The agency then passes those savings along to first-time buyers through lower mortgage rates, down payment assistance, and other benefits. It’s one of the strongest tools available for helping new buyers become homeowners.

Where it breaks down

The whole system relies on a spread: the agency borrows at a low rate and lends to buyers at a slightly higher one. That difference is what pays for the discounts and assistance.

When rates rise as fast as they have this year, that spread narrows or vanishes altogether. Some state programs are now offering rates only slightly better than a typical lender’s, and in some cases, they’re actually higher.

What this means for you

The buyers who need help most are getting the least out of these programs right now. Until the bond market stabilizes, expect program rates to stay volatile.

If your buyer qualifies for assistance, don’t assume the program is automatically their best option. Work with your lender to compare the monthly payment, upfront assistance, and total cost before making a recommendation.

Instagram Reels from the Week

wo Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Saturday morning, I went to Voss Brothers in Powell to rent an aerator and dethatcher because Instagram had successfully convinced me my lawn needed both.

The guy behind the counter knew my wife from high school and had a red beard, so we're basically family. I told him what I wanted to accomplish, and instead of happily taking more of my money, he explained why I probably didn't need the dethatcher. He showed me how to use the aerator, helped load it, met Teddy, and sent me off with a giant bear hug.

I walked in expecting lawn equipment and left thinking about unreasonable hospitality.

It made me realize I need to create more moments like that in my own business. Sometimes the best way to earn someone's business isn't selling them more. It's making sure they can't imagine going anywhere else.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low 7’s.

Bad Jobs Report = Lower Rates...Right?

Friday morning looked like it should have been a very good day for mortgage rates.

The September jobs report showed the U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs, well below the 90,000 expected. Even worse, the previous two months were revised down by another 60,000 jobs. Unemployment also ticked up to 4.2%.

Normally, weaker employment data is exactly what we want if we're rooting for lower mortgage rates. A slowing economy generally means less inflation pressure, which is good for bonds and, ultimately, mortgage rates.

And initially, that's exactly what happened. Bonds rallied and mortgage rates improved Friday morning. But Kreg and I always say “the first move isn’t always the final move.”

Then the whole thing reversed after traders had time to digest the finer details of the report.

By the end of the day, Mortgage News Daily's average 30-year fixed rate had actually increased to 7.57%.

The unemployment number wasn't quite as scary once investors looked under the hood. The headline unemployment rate moved from 4.1% to 4.2%, but the unrounded numbers were actually 4.141% to 4.175%, barely a move at all. More importantly, labor-force participation increased from 61.6% to 61.8%. More people entered the workforce looking for jobs, which helped push the unemployment rate higher. That’s not as bad as people truly losing their jobs.

Mortgage News Daily calculated that if labor-force participation had simply stayed where it was the month before, unemployment would have actually fallen below 4%.

Then oil prices rebounded, which isn't helpful for inflation. The morning rally disappeared, and mortgage lenders repriced higher.

This is a great reminder that markets don't trade headlines. They trade what the numbers mean compared with what investors were already expecting.

Sometimes 29,000 jobs = higher mortgage rates. Welcome to 2026.

What If Your Loan Officer Could Shop Your Credit Score?

We shop mortgage rates. We shop homeowners insurance. Now your loan officer may have something else worth shopping: your credit score.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now broadly allow lenders to use either Classic FICO or VantageScore 4.0 on eligible loans. Lenders can even obtain both models and determine which one to use for a particular loan.

Here's where it gets interesting.

Imagine I pull both models for the same borrower:

Classic FICO: 698
VantageScore 4.0: 722

Same person. Same credit history. Two different models evaluating that history differently.

If the VantageScore puts that borrower on the better side of an important credit-score threshold, it could potentially mean better mortgage pricing or a better overall loan outcome.

Until recently, there was a catch. When VantageScore initially rolled out, Fannie and Freddie used separate pricing structures, effectively giving the new model a handicap while they evaluated its risk. That's now changing. As of September 30, loan-level pricing adjustments are aligned across Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0.

In other words, VantageScore is no longer entering the race with a pricing weight strapped to its ankle.

Does that mean VantageScore will always win? Absolutely not. Your VantageScore could be higher or lower than your FICO score.

But as a loan officer, this is where my ears perk up.

If I have a borrower sitting near an important credit threshold, why wouldn't I want to know how both approved scoring models view them? Fannie and Freddie specifically allow lenders to obtain both, although one scoring model must ultimately be used consistently for all borrowers on the loan.

There is a catch: pulling another scoring model may cost the lender more money. So I don't expect lenders to blindly pull both scores on every borrower. But if someone is sitting near an important credit threshold, paying a little more to check the other scoreboard could potentially save that borrower a lot more in mortgage pricing.

We've spent decades thinking about your mortgage credit score as one fixed number.

We may need to start thinking about it as something worth shopping.

A Monster El Niño Is Brewing. What Does That Mean for Ohio?

Apparently mortgage rates aren't the only thing behaving strangely.

Thousands of miles away, the Pacific Ocean is heating up in a big way.

NOAA says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event this fall and winter. Even crazier, NOAA currently sees a 75% chance the October through December event reaches a level exceeding previous El Niños in its historical record dating back to 1950.

So what exactly is El Niño?

In overly simple terms, unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific changes atmospheric circulation, which can alter weather patterns thousands of miles away. And yes, that can include Ohio.

Before anyone starts stockpiling snow shovels or selling theirs on Facebook Marketplace, El Niño doesn't dictate our weather. It changes the odds. Even an exceptionally strong event doesn't guarantee a particular outcome in Central Ohio.

But NOAA's current October-November-December outlook does favor above-normal temperatures across nearly all areas east of the Mississippi River, including Ohio.

For housing, a warmer fall and early winter could mean more comfortable showings, longer construction windows and fewer weather-related headaches. Or Ohio could do what Ohio does best and give us sunshine, freezing rain and 65 degrees in the same week.

I’m keeping a close eye on this mostly because I want to know whether to tune up my snowblower or my golf clubs.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Happy Monday, y'all! Mortgage rates just hit levels we haven't seen in over two years, climbing faster than a Browns fan's blood pressure in that fourth quarter! But hey, Browns fans are built for this pain. If anyone can handle 7% rates, it's us 🫡

And the good news? The Browns are 2-1 and are first in the AFC North, with the Steelers coming to town Thursday night. Rates are rising, but so are the Browns. Super Bowl, here we come! 🏈🏆

Unfortunately, unlike the Browns, mortgage rates aren't looking like a comeback story anytime soon. I'm here to break down why rates keep climbing, where the real pain in this market is hiding , and a new $50K homebuyer proposal that has Washington playing Santa Claus a little early.

Let's gooooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGHER. Rates are in the low-to-mid 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 6's.

So, When Are Rates Coming Back Down?

Not anytime soon.

I wish I had better news, but just about everything that normally helps rates fall is working against us right now.

On February 28, the day the Iran war started, the average mortgage rate was around 5.99%. Today? 7.43%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Here's why rates aren't coming down anytime soon:

1. The war is keeping inflation alive.

The war has sent oil prices soaring. And when oil costs more, just about everything that moves by truck, train, or ship costs more too. As long as investors are worried about inflation, they'll demand a bigger return on their money. That means higher rates.

2. The Fed is heading the wrong way.

The Fed just raised rates 0.25% to fight inflation, and markets currently see a 64% chance of another hike on October 28. If you read this newsletter regularly, you know mortgage rates don't wait for the Fed. When investors expect a hike, they react right away, so it's already baked into your rate before the Fed ever makes a move.

3. Uncle Sam is borrowing A LOT.

When the government spends more than it takes in, it covers the gap by selling bonds. Right now, it's borrowing a massive amount. On top of that, big companies are borrowing billions to build out AI.

That's a flood of IOUs all competing for the same investors.

Picture a garage sale where every house on the street is selling the same couch. To get anyone to buy yours, you have to sweeten the deal. With bonds, sweetening the deal means paying a higher interest rate. And since mortgage rates follow bond rates, when bond rates rise, mortgage rates rise with them.

Take a look at that list above and tell me one reason rates should fall anytime soon. This fall and winter are shaping up to be rough for mortgage rates. Set realistic expectations now, for yourself and your clients, so nobody's caught off guard in the months ahead.

The Crash Isn't Coming for Your House. It's Coming for Their Debt.

I have a love-hate relationship with social media. I love that it keeps me close to family and friends, even ones I haven't seen in years. But when the market turns, it gets toxic fast for anyone in this business.

This past week proved it. Rates climbed into the low-to-mid 7s, and folks lost their ever-loving minds. Every 15 seconds, another "THE HOUSING CRASH IS HERE" post.

Is a correction coming? Absolutely. Just not where y'all think.

Single-family homes aren't the story. About half of all mortgages are locked in below 4%, so homeowners may want to sell, but they don't need to. The real pressure will land on large multifamily owners, developers, and commercial owners with debt coming due or funds nearing the end of their life.

Why them? Financing. Many of these deals run on short-term or adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) debt. Anyone who bought in 2021 or 2022 with an ARM, when rates were in the 3s and 4s, is likely facing a mandatory reset or refinance right now, and it's a smack in the face. Believe me, I know firsthand. I recently had a commercial ARM jump from the 5s to the 7s almost overnight. Talk about a gut punch to profitability 🤬

If you're looking to get into multifamily or commercial, watch this market closely. Rising rates create opportunities for people with the capital, financing, and patience to step in when others are forced out.

So while everyone else waits for a crash in their neighborhood, I'll be watching debt maturities. The biggest opportunities often show up when someone can no longer afford to hold the property.

Save $1, Get $5: The $50k Homebuyer Proposal

A couple of weeks ago, I told y’all it feels like the government is grasping at straws to keep this housing market moving. Right on cue, Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced the Homeownership Promise Act last week, a proposal that would give first-time buyers up to $50,000 toward a down payment.

Here's how it works: for every $1 a first-time buyer saves, the federal government adds $5, up to $50,000. Save $4,000, and the government kicks in $20,000.

Here are the key details:

• It's a federal savings match, not a tax credit.

• There's no income limit.

• The home can't cost more than the local median price.

• Savings must be held at a Treasury-certified community development financial institution (think credit unions).

We all know affordability is still a major hurdle. Prices are high, rates have spiked, and the median first-time buyer is now 40.

But let's be honest as industry pros: Subsidizing higher prices is not the answer. Especially when you are 40 trillion dollars in the hole. Would $50,000 in assistance make housing more affordable, or just push prices higher in a market that's already short on homes?

With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, this bill faces an uphill climb. Still, it's a preview of the housing policies Democrats could push if they win back Congress, much like Kamala Harris' 2024 plan offering up to $25,000 to first-time buyers.

And look, as much as our businesses and wallets would LOVE another government handout, we have to ask the bigger question:

Are we actually fixing affordability, or just pulling more demand forward?

You can only throw so much money at demand before you have to deal with the other side of the equation: supply. Maybe the real conversation isn't how much more money we can hand buyers. Maybe it's how we build enough affordable homes that buyers don't need $50,000 of help in the first place.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

My oldest daughter, Camille, is taking college classes as a junior in high school. She recently wrote a paper about an 8-mile family hike we forced her to take, one she dreaded but ultimately loved and the lessons she learned. The paper was so good it brought my wife to tears.

She got a B-.

Her professor called it beautifully written and one of the best in the class, but docked her for too many paragraphs and using a second-person pronoun.

She was crushed, but there’s a lesson in there: When following the rules becomes more important than what you actually create, something gets lost.

I’ll take the kid who goes above and beyond and gets an 81. That instinct will serve her well long after that grade is forgotten.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the mid-to-high 6’s.

Your Appraisal Is About to Change. A Lot.

An appraiser asked me a question this week that caught me off guard: “Has your company started using the new appraisal form yet?”

The new what?

I knew there was a new appraisal format coming, but apparently I had underestimated how significant the change is and how quickly it is approaching. He told me he had already purchased a new software platform to help complete the reports, there was going to be a learning curve, and he expected appraisal fees to go up.

Naturally, I went down the rabbit hole.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are transitioning to UAD 3.6 and the redesigned Uniform Residential Appraisal Report (URAR). This is more than replacing one form with another. The new system creates a dynamic, data-driven report that changes depending on the property and assignment.

The date to circle is November 2, 2026. Beginning then, new appraisal reports submitted through the Uniform Collateral Data Portal for loans sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac must use UAD 3.6. New appraisals using the old format after that date will receive a fatal submission error.

So, what’s the good, the bad and the ugly?

The good: The appraisal industry needed modernization. The new format should provide better and more standardized property data, greater consistency between appraisers and ultimately a better explanation of why a property is worth what the appraiser says it is worth. I’m praying this reduces the number of angry listing agents arguing about below-grade square footage.

The bad: Everyone has to learn it. Appraisers, appraisal management companies, software providers, lenders, underwriters and appraisal reviewers are all adapting at roughly the same time. In a recent survey of 863 appraisers, among those planning to support UAD 3.6, 71% had not yet completed a single appraisal using the new format.

The ugly: This could cost homebuyers more money and time. In that same survey, 66.7% of appraisers expect their fees to increase, with more than one in five expecting an increase greater than $200. More interestingly, among appraisers who have actually completed a UAD 3.6 appraisal, 82.2% expect fees to increase and 75.7% expect longer turnaround times.

That caught my attention because the mortgage industry has recently spent considerable energy trying to reduce costs for borrowers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, recently expanded availability of VantageScore 4.0, part of a broader effort designed to increase competition in mortgage credit scoring and potentially lower costs.

That’s great, but if we’re shaving a few dollars from one part of the transaction while potentially adding $100, $200 or more somewhere else.

The bigger concern might be time. If an appraisal that normally takes five days suddenly takes seven or eight while everyone learns the new system, that matters when you have a closing date.

I think the appraisal itself will ultimately get better. Getting there could be a little messy.

The Housing Market Has a Secret Discount Menu

The biggest financial headline last week was easy to find. The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark target rate by 0.25% to 3.75% to 4.00%, citing inflation that remains too high. It was the first hike in over three years. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its decisions and the expectations surrounding them certainly matter to financial markets.

While everyone was talking about rates, however, something considerably more useful was happening for homebuyers.

Sellers are negotiating.

According to new Redfin data, 44.7% of homes sold in August included some type of seller concession, the highest August share in Redfin’s records. Even more interesting, 15.8% of buyers received both a concession and a price reduction.

Why? Buyers finally have something they haven’t had much of for the past several years: leverage.

Here’s where buyers sometimes make a mistake. They negotiate only the price.

Imagine buying a $400,000 house with 10% down and the seller is willing to give up $10,000 to make the deal happen. You could negotiate the price to $390,000, but because you’re financing the purchase, that $10,000 price reduction may only save roughly $60 per month in principal and interest.

What if instead you used some of that $10,000 toward allowable closing costs or a mortgage-rate buydown? Depending on the loan program and transaction, the financial benefit could be considerably larger.

The answer will be different for every buyer, but that’s the point. Don’t just negotiate the price. Negotiate the economics of the transaction.

The Fed may control the headlines, but the seller sitting across the negotiating table might have more influence over your actual deal.

1 in 5 Purchase Mortgages Is Now Gen Z

If you consume enough housing news, you would likely believe nobody under 30 will ever own a house.

Home prices are too high.
Mortgage rates are too high.
Student loans.
Inflation.
Starter homes are disappearing.

Apparently nobody told Gen Z. Brunch is out and buying a home is in 🙌

According to ICE’s Mortgage Monitor, Gen Z accounted for a record 20% of purchase mortgage rate locks during the second quarter of 2026. They also represent nearly one-third of first-time-homebuyer loans and 27% of FHA purchase lending.

So how are they doing it?

Financing is part of the answer. FHA plays an important role. ICE also found 13% of Gen Z buyers used gift funds toward their down payment while another 8% used a loan. That means roughly one in five received some form of outside assistance, but it also means roughly four in five did not.

Geography matters too. Younger buyers can improve the affordability equation by targeting markets where their income buys more house. And the oldest members of Gen Z are now approaching 29, which puts them squarely into traditional first-time-homebuyer years.

Maybe the surprising part isn’t that Gen Z is buying houses. Maybe it’s that they’re figuring out how to do it despite one of the toughest affordability environments in decades.

For Realtors and lenders, the takeaway is simple: Stop thinking of Gen Z as tomorrow’s homebuyer. They’re today’s homebuyer.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

If you're an Ohio State fan, I'm guessing you're still trying to figure out how the hell the Buckeyes managed to blow a 23-3 lead in the fourth quarter and lose to Texas 24-23. I know I am.

And honestly, that feels like a pretty good metaphor for the mortgage market right now.

Just when you think you know exactly what's going to happen, everything can change in a matter of minutes. Mortgage rates have been all over the place, the bond market is doing its own thing, the Fed is keeping everyone guessing, and Washington continues to pull every lever it can to try to influence the housing market.

So take a deep breath, grab your coffee, and let's get into it!!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGHER. Rates are in the low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 6's.

Government Loses Control of Housing

Before you read this newsletter, I want you to do one thing.

Turn on "Control" by Zoe Wees while you read. Because this is basically the government singing to you about what I am about to write.

The wheels are falling. Can't stop the train. The ship is taking on water. 

Pick whatever metaphor you want. The story is the same: the government is losing control of the housing market, and they're scrambling like cockroaches.

Now look, Nick and I are not in the business of spreading fear. We are in the business of providing value and education in a world where everyone has a narrative to push.

Putting political differences aside, there are some pretty clear indications that the housing market is running its own course...and Washington is learning a very important lesson: You can influence the housing market. You can't completely control it.

Example #1: They Bought $200 Billion of Mortgage Bonds

Earlier this year, President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase approximately $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities with one very clear goal:

DRIVE MORTGAGE RATES LOWER.

The theory made sense. Create more demand for mortgage-backed securities, improve pricing, and hopefully bring mortgage rates down.

And initially...IT WORKED. Mortgage rates fell nearly 0.20% the day after the announcement, with the 30-year rate dropping to around 5.99%.

Mission accomplished...right??

Not so fast. As we all know, this was clearly a temporary Band-Aid on gaping wound. Sure, they were able to temporarily influence the market. But they couldn't permanently control it. Fast forward several months and mortgage rates have climbed back toward 7%.

Why? Because the government can influence the mortgage bond market, but it can't simply order inflation lower. It can't dictate oil prices. It can't eliminate geopolitical risk. And it can't make investors suddenly stop worrying about government debt and deficits.

That's the difference between influencing a market and controlling a market.

Example #2: Then They Tried the Bond Market

Apparently, buying $200 billion of mortgage bonds wasn't enough. So now Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying another lever.

Within the past month, the Treasury recently announced a buyback of up to $6 billion of longer-term Treasury securities, tripling the previous maximum for that type of operation. The idea is to provide additional demand and liquidity in the longer-term bond market and help stabilize borrowing costs.

Sounds simple, right? Buy more bonds, create more demand, and rates should fall! Woohoo!

Except...the bond market basically gave Bessent the proverbial middle finger and rates went higher anyway.

Why? Because you can't just wave a magic wand over the bond market and make investors forget about inflation, massive government deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, oil prices and geopolitical risk.

Again, the government can influence the market. But the bond market ultimately gets the final vote.

Example #3: The "HISTORIC" Mortgage Announcement 

Last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Bill Pulte took to social media and announced the following:

Nick and I were giddy with anticipation of the incoming news. I legit set an alert on my phone for Pulte's next post because I wanted to see what kind of gift the government was about to deliver to all of us in the housing world. Was it mortgage relief coming? A game-changing mortgage program?  

And then...

THE HISTORIC ANNOUCEMENT ARRIVED!!

"Good news for American Homebuyers! Effective today, Fannie and Freddie will now carry VantageScore, in addition to a FICO score!"

Seriously.

That's it? THAT'S your historic announcement!?

Can't wait to pass that $50 credit report savings along to my buyers. That's definitely going to move the affordability needle! GTFOH 😂

Americans don't need another way to calculate their credit score. They need a cheaper mortgage payment. Why not start by reducing the Loan-Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) that get baked into the pricing of conventional mortgages? Better yet, waive them entirely for first-time homebuyers regardless of income or credit. That could provide immediate relief to thousands of people trying to buy their first home.

Example #4: The Housing Idea Machine

And this brings us to where we are today.

At this point, Bill Pulte seems to be floating just about every idea imaginable to fix the housing market.

So far, he's floated ideas such as:

• A 50-year mortgage

• Tackling Loan-Level Price Adjustments (LLPAs) on conventional loans

• Portable mortgages, allowing homeowners to take their existing mortgage rate with them when they move

• Taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship and reducing government control

Clearly, he recognizes what everyone else already knows: We have a housing affordability problem.

But floating idea after idea without meaningful execution isn't solving anything. At some point, you have to stop throwing ideas against the wall and actually develop a realistic plan. Because right now, it feels like Washington knows the house is on fire...They're just standing around debating which fire extinguisher to use.

And while they debate 50-year mortgages, portable mortgages, credit scores, LLPAs, and conservatorship...

Americans are still trying to figure out how the hell they're supposed to afford a house.

The Bottom Line

Here's what Nick and I think is really happening: Washington isn't powerless. Far from it. The government can absolutely influence the housing market, and we've seen it happen. They can buy mortgage-backed securities, influence the bond market, change mortgage guidelines and credit scoring requirements, and even change the rules surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They have plenty of levers they can pull.

The problem is, they don't control the forces that ultimately determine where housing prices and interest rates go. Inflation doesn't care about a press release. The bond market doesn't care about a tweet. Oil prices don't care about mortgage affordability. And the housing market certainly doesn't care what Washington wants it to do.

The government can pull the levers. They can push the buttons. They can move the needle for a while. But ultimately, the market gets the final vote. And right now, it looks like the market is starting to remind Washington who's really in control.

It's Fed Week!

I hate nothing more than your typical mortgage bro claiming, “This is the biggest announcement EVER!”

But I'm going to do it. This time, I think it's warranted.

This could be one of the most important Fed meetings I can remember in a long time. Why? Because we've watched mortgage rates spike more than half a percentage point in just one month. We've got a president pushing hard for lower rates, a new Fed Chair who has been tighter lipped than a clam at high tide, and a market trying to figure out what the hell the Fed is going to do next.

What's crazy is markets are now pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at this week's Fed meeting. That's a pretty wild reversal considering just a couple of weeks ago, the odds were bouncing around the 25% range.

Needless to say, we'll be watching this one VERY closely. Let's collectively pray for clear guidance and calmness in the markets. God knows, my heart and anxiety needs it! 

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

My daughters got job offers from a food truck last week. Let me explain.

Ash and I brought the girls to an industry event Thursday, like we try to do whenever we can, and while they waited in line for food, the owner was so impressed with them that she offered Camille and Charlotte work at her pumpkin patch this fall. By Saturday they were out on the farm, getting dirty and prepping for the busiest stretch of the season. Two reactions: total disbelief that my girls are about to be farmhands, and real pride that they made that kind of impression all on their own.

Let’s dive in!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid-to-high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-to-mid-6’s.

The Jobs Report Was Hot. The Jobs Weren't.

For two months straight, the story in this newsletter has been the same: the economy stumbles, and mortgage rates catch a break. July's report was ugly (the economy actually lost jobs), and rates eased. So heading into Friday, a lot of people (me and Kreg included) were quietly rooting for another weak number, because weak jobs had been good for rates.

We did not get it.

August payrolls came in at +162,000, blowing past forecasts of around 55,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. On the surface, one of the strongest reports we've seen in months. Prior months even got revised up instead of the brutal downward revisions we'd gotten used to.

But here's where it gets interesting, because almost nobody is going to read past the headline number, and the story underneath it is more complicated.

Look at where the jobs actually came from. The single biggest driver was restaurants and bars, up 59,000, which is nearly five times that sector's typical month. Right behind it was local government education, up 42,000, which is mostly a calendar illusion: teachers and school staff roll off payrolls over the summer and get counted again when school starts, and this year the seasonal math swung hard positive after a big drop in July. So the two engines of this "hot" report were part-time, lower-wage service jobs and a back-to-school bounce that reverses a summer dip. Strip those two out and the report looks pretty ordinary.

Meanwhile the sector that usually carries hiring, healthcare, slowed to just 13,000 against a 12-month average around 32,000. And the information sector (think tech, data processing, publishing, broadcasting) actually LOST 23,000 jobs. There's a real split-screen forming: lower-wage service jobs getting added while higher-skill, higher-paying jobs get cut.

Traders saw a big headline, steady unemployment, and rising wages (up 3.1% over the year) and read one word into all of it: inflation. The 10-year Treasury spiked to a multi-month high, and mortgage rates rode right along.

It also flipped the Fed conversation completely. A month ago the debate was whether the Fed might cut. After Friday, traders put the odds of a September rate HIKE back around 60%. Read that again. Not a cut. A hike is now the more likely surprise. Anybody still promising your buyers a September rate cut is selling something.

The honest read: the number was strong enough to spook the bond market and push rates higher, but the quality underneath was weaker than the headline. That's exactly the kind of mixed signal that makes the Fed's job (and ours) harder over the next two weeks.

And the next two weeks decide it. CPI inflation data drops September 10 and 11, and the Fed announces on September 17.

Four Underwriting Changes Worth Knowing About

Here's the stuff that actually excites me and Kreg, because it helps real people qualify right now.

Last week, all the big players quietly rolled out guideline changes, and most of them landed in the buyer's favor. These are the invisible rules that decide who gets approved, and when they loosen, doors open. Here are the four worth knowing:

Freddie Mac just made "assets as income" dramatically better. (This is the big one.) If you've got a client who's cash-rich but income-light (a retiree, a business owner who takes little salary, someone sitting on a big investment account), lenders can turn those assets into qualifying income. Freddie just improved this in three huge ways. First, they scrapped the old rule that required a borrower to be 62 or older to use checking, savings, and investment accounts. Now any asset-heavy borrower can use it, at any age. Second, they made the math more generous: qualifying income is now calculated by dividing eligible assets over 180 months instead of 240, which produces roughly 33% more monthly income for the same pile of assets. Third, investment properties are now eligible too. This WILL help a lot of buyers.

Freddie will now finance manufactured homes that have been moved. This used to be an automatic dead end. If a manufactured home had ever been relocated from its original site, good luck financing it. Freddie now allows it, provided a licensed structural engineer certifies the home's structural integrity.

VA loosened how it treats non-medical collections. For our veteran buyers, this one quietly helps a lot. When a veteran had a non-medical collection account, we used to have to count 5% of the entire balance as a monthly expense against their debt-to-income ratio. That's brutal on a big balance. Now that 5% can be divided by 12 to reflect a realistic monthly figure, which shrinks the hit to their DTI and helps more veterans qualify.

Fannie Mae tightened rules on leases for a departing residence. Not every change was a loosening. It used to be that a buyer keeping their current home as a rental could just produce a lease and use that rent to offset the old mortgage payment. Fannie has closed that shortcut. Going forward, the departing-residence framework relies on market-supported rents and additional reserves rather than a lease you signed last week. Translation: if your buyer is counting on renting out their current place to swing the next purchase, they'll likely need documented market rent and more money in the bank. Plan for it early and it's a non-issue.

One More Thing: The Streak Just Snapped

For eight straight months, pending home sales had been growing year over year. It was a good run. In August, that streak broke: pending sales slipped 0.2% from a year ago, the first annual decline since November 2025, per Realtor.com's report released September 2. New contract signings fell about 3.4%. The cause won't surprise you. Rates have climbed six months in a row and buyers finally flinched.

Price cuts told the same story, with 20.4% of active listings taking a reduction, the first time in 2026 that the price-cut rate matched last year's pace instead of staying below it.

But here's the reassuring part, and the reason I’m not panicking. Delistings, sellers yanking their homes off the market in frustration, are running about 12.6% below last year's pace. That's the number economists actually watch for a "broken" market, and it's calm.

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Nick and I just survived French Lick. Barely. Twelve guys, two days of sun that we were absolutely not prepared for, golf courses that made us question every life choice that led us to that tee box, and the kind of laughs that remind you why friendships matter. It was exactly what we both needed. If you have been putting off a guys trip or a girls getaway, stop overthinking it and just book the long weekend. You deserve it. Now that we are back, fully humbled, and slightly crispy, let's talk about what happened in the housing and mortgage world this week because there is a lot to unpack!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGHER. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6's.

Wall Street Wanted a Cut. It Got a Warning.

For anyone who hasn't spent the last decade like me, glued to this stuff: every August, the world's central bankers descend on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and the Fed chair delivers a keynote. It's traditionally where the Fed telegraphs what's next. Lately, that's meant some flavor of "cuts are coming, relief is on the way."

Not this time.

Friday was new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote since taking over in May, and he used it to draw a line in the sand. He called July's 3.7% PCE inflation reading "concerning," described the Fed's 2% target as "firm and fixed," and made clear that this summer's slightly better inflation numbers "do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."

In other words: don't hold your breath for rate cuts.

The bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates spiked to a three-week high and traders flipped from betting on a cut to pricing in a 56% chance of a rate HIKE at the September meeting 🙁

There was one line from Warsh that I think every person in this industry needs to hear. He said markets have turned into a hall of mirrors, completely fixated on the Fed's next move instead of the real economy. And when the Fed miscalculates, it is not Wall Street that suffers. It is the family that cannot afford their mortgage payment. He wants less Fed dependency and more market independence. Whether you agree with him or not, that era of the Fed telegraphing its every move is over.

So here is what you need to do right now. Stop promising clients a rate cut anytime soon.

And buckle up, because September is going to be a white-knuckle month. The jobs report lands September 5. CPI inflation hits September 10 and 11. And the Fed announces its decision September 17. Any one of those can swing rates hard. All three stacked into twelve days is a genuine roller coaster. We'll be watching every print and breaking it down as it happens.

The Best Deals Right Now Aren't From the Fed. They're From Builders.

If Washington won't lower rates, here's who will: homebuilders, and they're getting hella aggressive about it.

New-home sales fell 10.5% in July, leaving builders sitting on 9.6 months of inventory (NAHB/Census). When homes sit, builders open their wallets  and deal. In August, 63% offered incentives and 35% cut prices outright, the 16th straight month with at least 30% of builders cutting prices, averaging around 6% (NAHB).

But the real weapon isn't the price cut, it's the rate buydown. ResiClub reported that PulteGroup recently announced on their Q2 2026 earnings call that their sales incentives rate rose to 10.4% on each home equating to $52,000 in incentives on a $500,000 home sale. This is insane as they stated in "normal" times; they spend around 3% to 3.5% of the sales price on incentives.

Clearly, there may never be a better window to grab a new build than right now... with a few caveats.

If you don't know by now, let me let you in on a little secret: the cost of that rate buydown usually gets baked into the price of the home.

We all know the rate doesn't transfer when you sell, but that inflated purchase price still has to hold up when it's time to sell. If you're planning to stay in the home long-term, a lower rate can still be a fantastic deal. Over 30 years, the interest savings can more than make up for paying a higher purchase price.

But if there's a good chance you'll move in the next few years, I'd think twice. We've seen this play out repeatedly recently. Someone buys a new construction home 2 or 3 years ago because the builder offered them an incredible interest rate. Then they go to sell, only to discover they may have to take a loss to get the home sold. And to make matters worse, they're often competing against the builder, who is still selling brand-new homes in the same community and offering buyers those same incredible incentives. Good luck competing with a builder offering a 3% to 4% interest rate.

One more landmine worth mentioning. Tax abatements. A lot of new construction comes with a property tax abatement that makes the monthly payment look incredibly attractive in the early years. But abatements do not always transfer to the next owner, which means if your buyer sells before it expires the new buyer could be staring at a dramatically different payment. That directly impacts resale value and marketability.

Before anyone falls in love with an abated new build, have them call the county auditor and confirm in writing whether the abatement transfers. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it very much does not 🙁

The $500 Wake-Up Call Every Homebuyer Needs to Hear

Mortgage rates. Home prices. Down payments. Every buyer obsesses over these three things. But there is a fourth cost quietly destroying household budgets that few are talking about.

Utility bills.

Let me make this personal for a sec...My electric bill last month was over $500. The highest we have ever received. And before you ask, no I am not living in a mansion and no I did not forget to turn the lights off. It is just the reality of where utility costs are right now and it woke me up to a conversation our industry is not having nearly enough.

Residential electricity prices jumped 7.3% in the last year alone and this summer's cooling costs are projected to push bills up another 10.5% on top of that. I know I am not the only one feeling the gut punch.

Here is where is hits home for all of us in Central Ohio. The massive data center buildout happening in our backyard is driving a surge in electricity demand across our state. According to a Brookings Institution analysis citing ICF consulting, residential electric rates in our region could increase between 15% and 40% by 2030 if data center growth continues outpacing new power generation 🤯

Columbus is booming and that is genuinely great news for our housing market. But every Intel campus and Meta data center plugging into our grid is also plugging into your electric bill. Buyers need to know this before they sign on the dotted line.

Sellers with newer HVAC systems, quality insulation, or solar panels need to be leading with those features right now. Those are not just amenities anymore. They are legit financial selling points.

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

I did not want to bring the dog.

Ash pushed to take Teddy on our Florida trip, I pushed back, and I was completely wrong. Best decision of the whole week. He's a conversation machine.

In 2 days, Teddy connected us with a lovely couple from England whose family member recently spoke at our church, a Texas homeschool family who invited us to their beachfront place for the afternoon, a investor from right by our Delaware office who owns a spot on 30A, and a potential speaker for Rebel 2027. I brought the leash. These were four connections I never make if I'm walking through Florida alone.

Let’s dive in!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was LOW. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-to-mid-6’s.

The Hidden Fees Baked Into Mortgages Might Be Changing

Late Thursday night, Bill Pulte, the man who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, posted eleven words on X that got every our attention: "We are nearing the end of our review of certain LLPAs. Decisions coming soon."

If you just said "LL-what?" I gotchu 💪 Loan-level price adjustments are risk-based fees baked into every conventional mortgage since 2008. Credit score, down payment size, property type, loan purpose: each one nudges mortgage rates up or down through these fees. Nobody sees them as a line item. They hide inside the rate. FHA, VA, and USDA loans don't carry them at all.

So when the regulator says he's about to "fix" them, with the stated goal of bringing relief to homeowners and homebuyers, that's potentially real money.

Now, before your feed fills up with "MORTGAGE FEES SLASHED, RATES PLUMMETING" posts (and after the portable mortgage circus Kreg covered two weeks ago, you know they're coming), read Pulte's words again: "certain LLPAs." Not all. And the early reporting suggests the review has focused on categories like second homes and cash-out refinances, not necessarily the fees a first-time buyer pays on a primary home purchase.

Somebody is probably getting a discount soon. We just don't know who yet. Could be meaningful for your buyers. Could mostly benefit investors and people tapping equity. Could be a little of both.

Here's our promise: the day the new fee matrix drops, we'll translate it into plain English and tell you exactly who wins. Until then, treat every viral post about it as fan fiction.

Investors Say It's the Worst Market in 3 Years. I Live With One.

A new CNBC survey made the rounds this week: investor sentiment among fix-and-flip and rental investors just hit an all-time low. Only 26% think the market is better than a year ago. 45% say it's gotten worse, the highest in the survey's history. Investors bought 23% fewer homes in Q1, and a third say they won't buy anything at all this year.

The culprits they named: financing costs, insurance, renovation costs, and softening rents. And the backdrop is brutal. Flip margins nationally fell to 25.5% last year, the thinnest since 2008.

As you may know, my wife Ash flips houses.

Case in point: her current flip, a joint project with Kreg's wife Katie. They're fighting to crack a 10% margin. It's a higher-priced home, so a thinner percentage comes with the territory, but reno costs are doing real damage to the bottom line.

We aren’t losing hope, though, and neither should you. When a third of your competition announces they're sitting this year out, the market is less crowded. The investors still standing are the ones underwriting carefully, buying right, and not counting on appreciation to bail out sloppy math. Fewer bidders on the same distressed listing is not bad news for the disciplined buyer.

One more wrinkle: Washington is simultaneously moving to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Whatever you think of that policy, note who it doesn't target. Small operators like Ash make up a much bigger share of investor activity than the Wall Street giants do, and the little guys are tapping out on their own. No ban required.

The Trade War Just Walked Into the Lumber Aisle

While you were enjoying your Saturday, the U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods after trade talks collapsed Friday night. Canada says it will match dollar-for-dollar starting September 8. Both sides blame each other. No new talks are scheduled.

Why does a mortgage newsletter care? Because of what's on the lists: building materials, cement, furniture. And because of what died with the deal. The agreement on the table reportedly included significant tariff reductions on steel, aluminum, and lumber. Canadian lumber already carries hefty duties from a dispute older than my kids. Framing packages were about to get cheaper. Now we don’t know when relief might land.

This tariff issues hits 3 big pillars of the housing industry.

New construction, because builder confidence is already subdued and their input costs just moved the wrong way, right when every affordability plan in America depends on builders building more. Renovations, because anyone pricing a kitchen (or, ahem, a flip budget) knows what materials have done lately, and this doesn't help. And inflation, because tariffs push prices up, which is exactly what we don’t want to have right before the Fed decides on a September hike.

Nobody knows if this lasts three weeks or three years. But if you have clients waiting for new-build prices to drop, this is a reason to stop waiting for a discount that’s not coming unless the new build inventory gets too heavy and builders decide to take thinner margins.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Technology is amazing. Katie and I took the kids on a quick long weekend trip to Norris Lake in Tennessee for one last hurrah before school starts. Of course, it just so happens to be my week to write the newsletter, and naturally, the power goes out at our Airbnb.

Of all the things that should have crossed my mind, my first thought was, “How am I going to write the newsletter?!”

Then I remembered… I have Starlink. So, I plugged Starlink into my car, and now I’m sitting in the middle of nowhere Tennessee, with no electricity but lightning-fast internet. 😂You can thank Elon for making sure this newsletter still hit your inbox this morning. 🙂

A lot happened last week. Let's get at it!!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was MODERATE. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6's.

New Bill Introduced To Allow Portable 3% Mortgages?!

I follow A LOT of mortgage and real estate professionals on social media, enough that it stopped feeling "social" a while ago and started feeling like a professional bulletin board for anything real estate related.

Honestly, I don't mind it. I'm a little obsessed with this industry, so being slightly addicted to real estate content means I catch pretty much everything that gets released or pushed out.

Case in point: this week you probably saw a wave of posts along the lines of "Trump Saving American Real Estate! New Bill For Portable 3% Mortgages!"

First, Trump has nothing to do with this bill.

Second, it was U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) who introduced the Making Ownership Viable for Everyone (MOVE) Act on August 3, 2026. The legislation aims to make portable mortgages available by requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to begin purchasing and securitizing portable mortgages, allowing eligible homeowners to transfer their existing:

• Mortgage interest rate

• Mortgage term

• Mortgage balance

to a new property.

Sounds AMAZING... until you actually read the bill.

The MOVE Act doesn't make every existing Fannie/Freddie mortgage portable. It requires Fannie and Freddie to support a market for new conventional mortgages built with portability from the start. You can't retroactively change the terms of a mortgage that's already been originated.

So yes, pass the bill, and enjoy the ability to one day port that 6.75% rate you just closed on 🫠 And do me a solid and please skip the posts celebrating the potential to transfer your current low rate.

Washington Teases Capital Gains Reform to Unlock More Housing

The White House quietly floated a big potential unlock for housing inventory this week and almost nobody noticed.

This past week, Larry Kudlow (former Director of the National Economic Council during Donald Trump's first term) said he'd spoken with Trump about ways to lower capital gains taxes. Specifically, Kudlow mentioned two proposals that Trump is on board with.

Idea #1: index capital gains to inflation. Right now you're taxed on the gap between what you paid and what you sold for. Indexing adjusts your purchase price for inflation, so you only pay tax on the real gain. Buy at $400K in 2000, sell at $1M today, and your taxable gain drops from $600K to roughly $350K.

Idea #2: a much bigger exemption on home sales. Today you exclude the first $250K in gain if you're single, $500K if you're married, and that number hasn't moved since 1997. Kudlow floated exempting homes worth $2 million or less entirely.

Both are solid ideas. But the odds of either passing through Congress before the midterms in November are slim to none.

Here's an idea Nick and I have been pushing for over 10 years. If you want to unlock inventory, waive capital gains for a set period of time for smaller investors. One of the main reasons I plan to hold onto my rentals until I die is the outrageous capital gains tax I'd owe if I sold them. Waive that tax for a period of time, and those rental properties hit the market tomorrow.

That would solve the inventory problem overnight.

Inflation Drops Again: Are Lower Mortgage Rates Coming?

I mentioned in my last newsletter to circle August 12th on your calendar, that was the date the big CPI inflation report dropped. Honestly, the report surprised both Nick and me. July's CPI inflation reading came in at 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June.

May sat at 4.2%.
June dropped to 3.5% ⬇️
Now July comes in at 3.4% ⬇️

That's two straight months of declines, and a full 0.8 percentage point drop since May.

With overseas chaos and oil prices staying elevated, we genuinely didn't expect inflation to keep falling in July. If anything, we were clutching our pearls bracing for a slight uptick.

But here we are. And I am here for it.

So what does this mean for mortgage rates? Honestly, there are only two legit levers that could move the needle over the next couple of weeks: oil prices dropping, or the market betting the Fed skips a rate hike this year.

Could something happen overseas that sends oil prices lower? Sure, it's possible. But we're not holding our breath.

The Fed side is where the good news is. A month ago, markets were pricing in a 70% chance of a September rate hike. Now that number has fallen to around 30%. That shift is exactly why we've seen a bit of rate relief over the past week.

Even so, let's be real about expectations here. Best case, rates could improve by an eighth of a point in the short term. More likely, we'll just see slightly better pricing over the next few weeks, nothing dramatic. That's all contingent on things overseas staying quiet.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Instagram post

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

This weekend the girls and I hit the mall for back-to-school shopping while Ash was busy with Kreg’s wife Katie on some flip projects.

I figured I had the easier assignment. I was wrong. The crowds were absolutely insane…shoulder-to-shoulder in every store. Brandy Melville (that’s a clothing store for the folks without teen girls) had a literal line outside of customers waiting to get in.

Turns out if you want to move product in this economy, all you have to do is announce a tax-free weekend and stand back. Good grief.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-to-mid-6’s.

Economists Said +83,000 Jobs. America Said -23,000.

Kreg told you last week to circle August 7 on your calendar. Consider it circled, highlighted, and set on fire.

Economists expected the U.S. to add 83,000 jobs in July. Instead, the economy LOST 23,000 jobs. Not a small miss. Not a rounding error. The forecast wasn't even pointing in the right direction.

And it gets worse the deeper you look. The government also went back and revised May and June, erasing another 103,000 jobs that were previously reported. Those months had been the "see, the labor market is fine" months. Turns out they were a lot less fine than advertised.

Here's the trend that matters. The three-month average of job creation is now sitting around 20,000 jobs per month. Economists generally say the economy needs somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000 new jobs a month just to break even with population growth. Back in May, that three-month average peaked at 142,000. We went from healthy to sputtering in one summer.

Now for the part that sounds like a typo. The unemployment rate actually went DOWN, from 4.2% to 4.1%.

How does the economy lose jobs while the unemployment rate improves? Because of how the number is calculated. You only count as "unemployed" if you're actively looking for work. In July, a wave of people stopped looking and dropped out of the labor force entirely. Fewer people looking = fewer people counted = a "better" unemployment rate. It's like my golf handicap improving because I just quit playing. 🫠

This report takes serious pressure off the Fed to hike in September, and rates eased almost immediately, with the 30-year fixed slipping back toward the mid 6's by Friday.

One report doesn't make a trend, and the second date Kreg told you to circle is this Wednesday, August 12, when the July inflation report drops. A hot CPI number could undo all of this in one morning. A cool one could mean the rate relief has legs.

The Biggest Bank in America Just Bet $750 Billion on Housing

While everyone was staring at the jobs report, JPMorgan Chase quietly made one of the biggest housing announcements in years.

The bank plans to pour more than $750 billion into U.S. housing over the next decade (roughly 40% more than it deployed over the previous ten years). The headline numbers are hard to wrap your head around: financing for 1 million affordable housing units, helping 500,000 people buy homes (200,000 of them first-time buyers), growing its mortgage lending by more than 40%, and hiring 850 new loan officers to do it.

For context, Chase is already the largest bank mortgage lender in the country, so we all need to pay attention.

They're not the only ones. Citi announced a $60 billion housing commitment earlier this year. And Chase is also taking the chairman's seat on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's brand-new Housing Advisory Council, which means the nation's largest lender now has a formal role steering national housing policy too.

So what do I actually think about this?

The optimist in me says this is real capital pointed at the real problem. We are millions of homes short in this country, and you do not fix that without hundreds of billions of dollars. If even a fraction of this builds actual units, that's supply we desperately need. Chase also publicly backed the ROAD Act (the housing bill we covered when it became law last month) so the money and the policy are rowing in the same direction.

The skeptic in me has questions. "Deploy $750 billion" is not the same as "build homes." A lot of that number is lending Chase would arguably be doing anyway, now wrapped in a press release. And when the same institution is the biggest lender, the biggest multifamily financier AND the chair of the national housing policy council...that's a lot of influence concentrated in one logo.

One in Five Listings Just Cut Their Price

Some numbers to chew on as we head into the fall market.

The share of active listings with a price cut hit 20% in July. One in five sellers looked at their days-on-market count, took a breath, and repriced. At the same time, mortgage applications fell about 3% week-over-week as rates ground higher through July, and newly pending sales dropped almost 8% from June.

Here's the part that might surprise you: July's closed sales were actually strong (up 7% year-over-year, the best annual gain of 2026). But closings are a photo of the past. Those deals went under contract in May and June. The pending numbers are the photo of right now, and right now shows buyers pausing. Zillow's chief economist put it bluntly: July "may represent the peak" of what we can expect this year.

So what do you actually do with this?

If you're working with sellers: the fall market is going to reward realistic pricing and punish wishful thinking. That 20% price-cut stat is really a list of sellers who priced for the spring market they wished they had instead of the summer market they got. Price it right on day one, or become a statistic on day 40.

If you're working with buyers: this is quietly the best setup they've had in months. A listing that's already taken a price cut is a listing with a motivated seller and a visible days-on-market count. Stack Friday's rate dip on top and a buyer who was priced out in June might pencil in September. And if Wednesday's inflation report comes in cool? Even better…

Instagram Reels from the Week

Instagram post

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

I will be honest with you. Some Monday mornings I sit down with my smoothie, open my laptop, and just stare at a blank screen because I do not know where to start writing. This is one of those mornings. Historic homeowner equity numbers, mortgage rates spiking, and a Fed that just had its most divided vote of the year. Your clients are reading about this stuff on their phones right now. Let's make sure you have the answers! Let's gooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6's.

Rates Just Hit Their Highest Level In Over A Year. Thank You, Fed.

If you see a mortgage lender out in the wild this week, just walk up and give them a hug. No words necessary. Just a hug. Because I promise you, we are all crying on the inside right now as mortgage rates creep dangerously close to 7% again.

There is nothing worse in this business than working with a buyer for weeks, running numbers on every home that piques their interest, and then having to call them the week they finally find their dream home to tell them their rate just went up another quarter point. You can feel their doubt creeping back in through the phone. Should I keep waiting? Is the market about to crash? Maybe this is a sign I should not be buying right now.

Nick and I have been doing this long enough to know that feeling all too well. We do our best to ease the pain in markets like we are experiencing today. We have both taken loans at little to no profit just to get a deal to the closing table. Hell, we were basically doing loans for free when rates hit 8% in October 2023! 🫠

And unfortunately, things just got a lot harder last week. The Fed held rates steady last week for the fifth consecutive meeting. Interesting enough, three out of the twelve voting members bucked the trend and voted for an immediate hike. Markets are now pricing in two rate hikes before year end. The next Fed meeting on September 15-16 is the most important date on the calendar right now.

Circle August 7 and August 12 on your calendar as well. The jobs report and CPI inflation report drop on those dates and they will determine whether September brings a hike or a hold. Buckle up!

Deal or No Deal?! That is the question.

So why has the Fed sentiment shifted so dramatically? You do not need an economics degree to figure it out. Just pull out of your driveway and roll up to the nearest gas station.

Regular unleaded is now over $4 a gallon nationally. And if you are like me and made the questionable life decision of buying a premium-guzzling mini bus a couple years ago, you are staring down $5 a gallon every time you fill up. Moment of silence for my wallet ⚰️💀

Inflation fears are back with a vengeance and you already know who to blame. The war in Iran.

We had another insane weekend of geopolitical whack-a-mole. President Trump posted that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for a pause in hostilities and that the parameters of a deal had been agreed to. Hope flickered briefly that mortgage rate relief was near!

Then Iran went on record through state media and called the whole thing false. Flat out denied it. And reminded the world that control over the Strait of Hormuz is their most powerful bargaining chip. As long as Iran believes uncertainty gives them more leverage than a resolution, do not expect clear signals, calm markets, or any quick path to lower oil prices.

The Fed knows it. The bond market knows it. And now your gas station knows it too.

The short version is this....Expect higher rates for longer until there is a verified deal that actually sticks.

The Numbers Are In - American Homeowners Are Sitting on a Gold Mine

The next time someone brings up a foreclosure crisis, send them this:

Cotality just dropped their Q2 2026 Homeowner Equity Report and the numbers are genuinely staggering. The average mortgaged borrower in the U.S. is sitting on $310,500 in home equity right now. That is 5X more than what homeowners held coming out of the Great Financial Crisis just 15 years ago.

The most stunning statistic to me is the average California homeowner is sitting on $626,900 in equity! The median home price in Ohio right now is $285,000 according to Ohio Realtors data. That means a California homeowner could sell their house, pack up and move to Ohio, buy a home completely in cash, and still walk away with over $300,000 in their pocket.

That is a mathematical reality that is already driving relocation patterns and it is one of the reasons Ohio keeps showing up on national radar as a destination market.

Oh, and about that foreclosure crisis everyone keeps predicting. Only 1.9% of mortgaged properties are underwater right now (home is worth less than the mortgage). At the peak of the 2009 crash, that number was a little over 26%. The financial foundation underneath today's housing market looks nothing like anything we have seen in a generation.

Sellers have equity, buyers have options, and Ohio has never looked more attractive 💁

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

This weekend the Steinhauer and King kids joined forces to help me and Ash mulch the house. Wheelbarrows, rakes, the whole operation.

They put on summer jams, huddled up and came up with an actual "strat" to move faster, and then laughed their way through the entire job. Everybody had a role. Nobody complained. I even saw Big Griff trying to carry more mulch than anybody else.

At one point I just stopped and watched. Seeing your own kids work hard alongside your best friend's kids hits different. Felt like a glimpse of who they're becoming, and I liked what I saw.

The beds look great. That's not the part I'll remember.

Alright, on to the news.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-to-mid-6’s.

Housing Just Became the Main Character of the Midterms

CNBC dropped a survey this week that should get every real estate professional's attention.

Voters 18 to 34 were asked what matters most to them politically, and the answer isn't inflation, immigration, or foreign policy. It's housing costs. Ranked above the price of groceries.

An entire generation just told pollsters that being able to afford a place to live outranks basically everything else on the ballot.

The numbers behind the frustration are brutal. Households now need roughly $120,000 in income to buy the median home. Median income is $85,000. Homes priced under $350,000 have shrunk from 60% of listings in 2019 to just 40% today. And the median first-time buyer is now 40 years old, up from around 29 a generation ago.

One pollster put it perfectly: housing could be the healthcare of 2024. Meaning it's about to dominate campaign ads, stump speeches, and legislation from now through November.

Expect a flood of housing proposals over the next few months. Some will be genuinely useful. Some will be noise.

Kreg and I will help you tell the difference.

Ohio Just Won Two Big Ones. Both Point the Same Direction.

I bet you thought I was going to talk about Iran or oil prices. Not this week, friends 🤣

This week the news was all about Ohio who got two genuinely great headlines, and they connect in a way that matters for anyone who owns, sells, or is thinking about buying a home here.

Win #1: We're officially the best state for business in America.

CNBC named Ohio America's Top State for Business for 2026, our first-ever number one finish. And the climb is the best part. Ohio finished 30th in the inaugural CNBC study back in 2007. The state once called the buckle of the Rust Belt scored 1,623 points out of a possible 2,500 to take the crown, edging out defending champ North Carolina.

CNBC credited the nation's best infrastructure, low business costs, more than 143 million people within a day's drive, low real estate costs, reasonable utility and insurance costs, and shovel-ready sites. Low real estate costs. That's us. Our affordability isn't just a nice perk for buyers anymore, it's a competitive advantage the entire country just noticed.

Win #2: Columbus unemployment hit 2.7%.

Axios reported the Columbus metro hit 2.7% unemployment in May, the lowest since at least 1990 and second lowest among all U.S. metros with a million-plus residents. Only Honolulu was lower. Cleveland and Cincinnati both sat at 3.1%.

No wonder the restaurants around town seem to be slammed and the malls are Black Friday crowded every…single…day.

Here's the housing tie-in. Nearly every Columbus industry saw only modest year-over-year employment change, except construction, which grew 10.6% since last June. Almost 69,000 people work construction here now, a number that has climbed every June since 2010 outside the pandemic year.

Jobs bring people. People buy homes. That flywheel is spinning right here.

Best state for business in America, and nearly everyone who wants a job has one. Not a bad week to be a Buckeye.

Should Buyers Use Retirement Savings to Buy a First Home?

I'm all about pushing homeownership when it makes sense for the buyer. But I'm not about to push bad ideas that put someone's future self in a far worse financial position.

Case in point: a proposal in Congress called the Uplifting First-Time Homebuyers Act. It would raise the IRA withdrawal limit from $10,000 to $50,000 for first-time buyers to use towards the purchase of their first home, without the 10% early withdrawal penalty.

In theory, great. The $10,000 cap was set in 1997 when the median home was $129,000. That number is stale and long overdue for adjustment. I’m not arguing with that.

Then NAR published an article defending it with math that doesn't hold up. Their claim: $50,000 in stocks at 10% annually returns $79,700 in gains over ten years, while $50,000 toward a $400,000 home builds $232,300 in equity.

Here's what's missing.

That's not stocks versus housing. That's unleveraged (stocks) versus 8-to-1 leveraged (housing). In an up market, of course the leveraged position wins.

The $232,300 in "equity" includes principal paydown, which is your own money moved from checking to house. The stock scenario assumes zero additional contributions. They're comparing one lump sum against a lump sum plus 120 monthly payments.

Every ownership cost is absent. Mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, PMI, and 6-8% in selling costs. The index fund fees are probably 1%.

They also used a modeled 10% for stocks but actual realized data for housing from 2016-2026. Could they have chosen a more skewed 10 year period? The US saw 3% rates and a pandemic price explosion. Not to mention, actual S&P returns over that same 10 year period were actually higher than 10%.

And income tax is never mentioned. The bill waives the penalty, not the tax. At 22%, your $50,000 becomes about $39,000.

Finally, the median first-time buyer is 40. Pulling $50,000 at 40 costs over $500,000 in retirement wealth by 65, using NAR's own 10% assumption.

Index the limit for inflation. Fine. But don't sell people a math problem that skips the costs.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

This week Central Ohio got hit with two things nobody asked for.

A blanket of Canadian wildfire smoke that made stepping outside feel like the opening scene of an apocalypse movie and a World Cup Final that had half of us celebrating and the other half quietly unfollowing people on social media. Through all of it Nick and I were glued to economic reports and mortgage data like the two people at the party who will not stop talking about interest rates 😂

We can’t help ourselves. Here is the latest and greatest in the mortgage world!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

Drop in Inflation Just Saved Us From Mortgage Rate Catastrophe

If you have not noticed by now, Nick and I take turns writing this newsletter every week. It truly is a labor of love that requires a significant amount of time and research. We are constantly digging through news outlets, economic reports, and industry updates to find information that actually moves the needle for your business.

After four years of writing this consistently, I am still amazed by how fast this market can flip on you. Case in point. Two weeks ago I wrote an article titled "All Signs Pointing Towards Lower Mortgage Rates." Shortly after that newsletter hit your inbox, President Trump ordered increased military action involving Iran and the rate outlook changed almost overnight. Rates shot higher, hitting their highest levels of the year, and everything I wrote two weeks ago became irrelevant by the following Monday.

That is the market we are living in right now. Humbling does not begin to cover it 😭

Thankfully, what saved us from rates marching toward 7% was the June CPI Inflation Report released last week. Inflation dropped from 4.2% in May all the way down to 3.5% in June, which was exactly the kind of report the mortgage market desperately needed! A major contributor was a sharp 9.7% decline in gasoline prices, which pulled overall inflation lower faster than most economists expected.

Remember the formula. Lower inflation = lower mortgage rates. So, this was legit good news for everyone in real estate.

It also gave the Fed breathing room to hold rates steady rather than hike at the July 28-29 meeting. But honestly, this positive momentum could be short-lived. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran could push oil and gas prices higher again and bring inflation pressure right back with them. Watch oil prices daily. That is still the single most reliable leading indicator for where rates go next.

For now this was a much-needed win. Enjoy it but stay alert 🫡

Rising Foreclosures: Should We Be Worried?

If you have been scrolling through the news lately you have probably seen some version of this headline. "Foreclosures are surging across America."

Your stomach dropped when you read it. I get it. Now imagine how your buyers and sellers feel when that headline hits their phone at 11pm. That is the potential conversation walking through your door this week whether you are ready for it or not.

So let's make sure y'all are ready...

Yes, foreclosure activity is trending higher. ATTOM Data confirms filings are up year over year as more homeowners feel the squeeze from higher rates, rising insurance costs, and affordability pressure. That is real and we should not ignore it.

But we are nowhere close to 2008. Not even in the same zip code. What we are seeing right now is a normalization back toward historical averages, not the beginning of a collapse. Most homeowners today have fixed rate mortgages, significant equity, and loans that were underwritten under much stricter standards than anything that existed in the mid-2000s. These people are not walking away from their homes.

The other thing those headlines consistently miss is that real estate is hyper-local. A foreclosure spike in Youngstown or Jacksonville tells you nothing about what is happening in Columbus. Markets spike for local reasons tied to their specific economy, demographics, and housing supply. Their story is not your story.

Here in Central Ohio homeowners are sitting on equity and benefiting from one of the strongest job markets in the Midwest. The local picture looks completely different from the national narrative being pushed in the headlines.

Rising foreclosures deserve your attention. They do not deserve your panic. And they absolutely do not deserve to become your clients' panic either.

Columbus Continues to Build Like Crazy

Nick and I talk constantly about how dangerous it is to let national headlines drive local decisions. This week I have a textbook example of exactly what I mean.

Columbus just hit a seven year high in multifamily housing permits. According to Realtor.com's June 2026 Rental Report, Columbus approved 4.3 new multifamily units per 1,000 residents in 2025, ranking among the strongest large metro areas in the entire country for new apartment development.

Seven year high. One of the strongest in the country. In a year when national multifamily construction has actually slowed down. Let's gooo!

Zoning changes designed to make it easier to build have helped fuel the pipeline and the additional supply is already creating more balance in the rental market between what is available and what people actually need. That is a healthy market signal.

Meanwhile someone reading a national headline about slowing construction this week might assume Columbus is in the same boat as Phoenix or Austin. It is not. Not even close.

This is exactly why I keep pounding the table on local data. Every market runs on its own engine. Columbus has population growth, strong job creation, generational investment from companies like Intel and Anduril, and local leadership that is actually trying to solve the housing supply problem rather than just talking about it.

That is not the story in most American cities. But it is absolutely the story here. And it is a big part of why Nick and I continue to personally invest in Central Ohio real estate.

Instagram Posts from the Week

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Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

I realized this morning that I've officially passed along a family trait, one that's apparently been handed down through generations of Steinhauers.

Collecting.

Before the sun even came up, my youngest was off to Starbucks to snag a few of their limited-edition bear-shaped glass cups. Evidently they're the latest must-have item.

I can’t say I’m surprised. She’s watched her dad collect Starbucks coffee mugs her entire life. It was only a matter of time before she started showing signs of the generational habit of collecting.

Some families pass down blue eyes. We pass down an inability to walk past a limited edition release.

Let’s get to the mortgage news 💪💪

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-6’s.

Prices Up. Affordability Up. Wait, What?

Last week's existing home sales report set off the usual wave of doom headlines: home prices hit another all-time record.

But HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami (the Chart Daddy himself) published a piece that flips the script, and it's the nuance every headline skipped. Yes, prices are at record highs. But the growth rate has cooled to just 1.8% annually while wages roaring higher, growing around 3.5%. When your paycheck grows faster than home prices, affordability quietly improves. That's happening right now and almost nobody is talking about it.

His historical context makes it even better. Excluding the 2007-2011 crash years, home prices haven't fallen even 1% in a single year since 1942. Read that again. Waiting for prices to drop means betting against eight decades of history.

The supply side backs it up too. Inventory sits at 1.56 million homes with 4.6 months of supply, right inside what Mohtashami considers the “healthy zone”. More choices for buyers means sellers can't dictate terms, which keeps price growth tame.

For perspective: price growth hit 10% in 2020 and 19% in 2021. Today's sub-2% growth is, as Mohtashami puts it, "just what the housing doctor ordered."

As real wage growth outpaces the increase in prices, the math moves in your favor. It won't make headlines. But it's the healthiest setup this market has seen in years.

The ROAD Act Is Law. What Should Congress Tackle Next?

Two weeks ago we told you the housing bill could become law automatically if the President simply did nothing for 10 days. At 12:01am on July 11, that's exactly what happened. The most significant housing legislation since 1990 is now law, without a signature.

So, victory lap complete. Now the honest question: what's next? Because here's the fine print even I missed: Section 1202 of the bill confirms that no additional funds are authorized to carry it out. It's a policy bill, not a funding bill. The Urban Institute put it well: "laws don't build homes." Here's where I believe Congress needs to aim next.

Fix the labor shortage. The construction workforce gap is one of the biggest drivers of building costs, and the ROAD Act barely touches it. The Urban Institute specifically calls for promoting workforce development, apprenticeship programs, and immigration pathways for construction trades. You can streamline every permit in America, but if nobody's swinging the hammer, homes don't get built. Like Kreg mentioned last week, Meta is launching America’s Workforce Academy to fast-track people into skilled trades for free. That’s a great first step!

Tackle material costs. Lumber, steel, and other building materials remain punishingly expensive, and tariff policy is making it worse. Exempting building materials from tariffs is the fastest single lever Congress could pull to lower the cost of new construction. This one is politically thorny, but the math is undeniable.

Update the capital gains exclusion. We covered this a few weeks back and it belongs on Congress's list: the $250K/$500K home sale exclusion hasn't been touched since 1997. Roughly 13 million long-time homeowners face tax bills if they sell, so they don't. Indexing it to inflation would unlock inventory in established neighborhoods overnight. NAR is actively lobbying for it.

Direct help for first-time buyers. The ROAD Act's small-mortgage pilot (loans under $100K) and manufactured housing reforms help at the margins. But a refundable first-time buyer tax credit, lower rates and/or expanded down payment assistance would move the needle faster for the first time buyers clawing their way in against cash-rich competition.

The bill that just became law is the on-ramp. These four are the highway. Congress proved it can pass housing legislation with massive bipartisan margins. Hopefully they keep the momentum going.

Here We Go Again: The Strait of Hormuz Is Back

I told myself I was done writing about Iran. I wasn’t going to do it.

But the people need to know why rates are popping pre-market.

This morning, President Trump declared the US is "taking over" the Strait of Hormuz, with fresh strikes to ensure freedom of navigation. Iran says the strait is closed "until further notice." Brent oil rose touched $79 a barrel after gaining 5.4% last week, and mortgage rates are popping right along with it.

You know the chain by now: oil up, inflation fears up, Treasury yields up, rates up. Elevator up, escalator down.

But here's the more interesting story underneath: the world is adapting. Strait traffic never rebounded past a third of normal volumes after the June peace deal, yet oil sat near just $71 as recently as July 10. Production is rising in the Americas, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building pipelines to bypass the strait entirely. Analysts expect prices near $90, but the $200 doomsday scenarios from March are off the table.

Every escalation moves markets a little less than the one before it. The world is learning to live without this waterway. Rates will eventually follow.

We'll keep watching so you don't have to. Promise.

Instagram Reels from the Week

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Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

It doesn’t happen every year, but a 3-day weekend to celebrate Independence Day is an absolute treat. Pool all day, fireworks at night, and a long weekend to recover. It doesn’t get much better than that 🎆🍔🌭

I hope you and your families had a chance to slow down and enjoy it because this week we are hitting the ground running!

There is a lot happening in the mortgage and real estate world and you know we are here to break it down!

Let's goooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

All Signs Pointing Towards Lower Mortgage Rates!

I am going to do something that feels a little risky in today's world. I am going to tell you exactly what Nick and I think is going to happen with mortgage rates for the rest of 2026.

In a world where everyone outsources their thinking to AI, I want to give you something AI cannot. A perspective built from 16 years of watching this market breathe. Cycles repeat and trends emerge. And after living through enough of them, you start to feel when the tide is turning. Right now, it is turning.

Last week felt quiet. Most of us were focused on cookouts and fireworks and nobody was paying much attention to economic news. But then the June jobs report dropped and it was ugly.

The U.S. added just 57,000 jobs in June against expectations of 115,000. April and May payrolls were revised down another 72,000 on top of that. And there was a jaw-dropping 720,000 person drop in the labor force.

Just last month the conversation had completely flipped as Wall Street was starting to price in rate hikes. Not cuts, actual hikes. Oil was spiking, the job market was running hot, and the war had no clear end in sight. We understood why. When inflation runs out of control the only tool the Fed has is to raise rates and cool things down.

But that jobs report changed everything. Combine a weak labor market with oil prices falling back toward pre-war levels and you have the exact recipe that takes rate hikes off the table and eventually cracks the door back open for cuts.

Now circle July 14th on your calendar. That is when the Consumer Price Index (inflation report) drops and it is the single most important data point of the summer. If inflation comes in cooler than expected, we could see the 30-year rate push toward the low 6's. If it runs hot above 4.3% rates could climb back above 6.5%.

The Patio That Broke Me...And What It Revealed About the Future of Home Prices

Katie (my wife) loves a good home project and has been dying to create a better outdoor living space for our family. After a year of continually hearing all the ideas, I finally told her to go ahead and start getting quotes for a new patio.

My little pea brain had the notion that this was a simple project. Something nice, nothing crazy...surely somewhere around $50,000 max. Because let's be honest, $50k is still a lot of money for a space you only fully enjoy about 7-8 months a year.

Well, little did I know; $50k didn't even scratch the surface. We got four separate quotes and not a single once came in under $100k! 

After nearly hyperventilating, I put on my analytical real estate hat and started asking what the hell is actually going on. Turns out it was not a fluke.

Construction costs just surged in May at the fastest annual rate since the pandemic. Overall materials costs are up 9.6% over the past year. The Iran war pushed oil through the roof and oil touches everything in construction. Tariffs on steel and copper are piling on top of that. Copper wire costs jumped 24.2% over the past year. Iron and steel up 7%. Contractors are getting crushed by rising materials costs while the prices they can actually charge for new work are barely moving.

Suddenly, those patio quotes didn’t feel random anymore. Just expensive and very real.

Here’s the reality of the situation...New construction is getting more expensive every month. Builders are already dealing with high borrowing costs, and now they’re absorbing nearly a 10% materials inflation shock on top of it. At some point, that cost doesn’t disappear. It gets passed directly to the buyer through higher prices, fewer incentives, or both.

Meanwhile, existing homes don’t carry that same inflation burden. There is no “10% materials surcharge” baked into a resale home, and that gap is becoming more prevalent.

The bigger picture is what should get people’s attention. If fewer projects pencil out today, fewer homes get built tomorrow. That means tighter inventory 12 to 24 months down the road. In a market like Columbus already running about 7.4% annual appreciation, less supply will only continue to drive prices up.

So while many buyers are waiting on new construction to offer relief, the reality is the window for “better deals” on new builds may actually be narrowing, not widening.

And yes… my patio is now officially part of the economic data.

Meta Just Chose Columbus to Help Solve the Construction Labor Crisis

I don’t use the word game-changer lightly, but this one is worth paying attention to.

Meta just launched America’s Workforce Academy, a program designed to fast-track people into skilled trades careers in just five weeks. It is completely free, with tuition, travel, housing, and a daily stipend all covered. Graduates earn industry-recognized credentials in electrical work, plumbing, or mechanical systems, and many leave with a job offer already in hand.

Meta is investing $115 million in year one, calling it one of the largest private-sector commitments to skilled trades training with a job guarantee in U.S. history.

And Columbus, Ohio is one of only four pilot cities in the entire country.

We just talked about construction costs hitting all time highs and one of the biggest drivers of that is a shortage of skilled labor. There simply are not enough electricians, plumbers, and mechanical workers to meet demand. When labor is scarce, it is expensive. When it is expensive, builders pass that cost on to buyers.

Programs like this will not fix the problem overnight. But they are a direct attack on one of the root causes of our housing affordability crisis. More trained workers entering the trades means more homes can actually get built, and built for less.

For Columbus specifically this is another signal that our city is being taken seriously on a national level. Intel, Meta, and major infrastructure investment are all landing here at the same time. That does not happen by accident and it does not slow down anytime soon.

Applications are open to people from all 50 states. If you know someone looking for a career change this is worth sharing.

Instagram Posts from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

This past weekend Ash and I went to a friend's 45th birthday party and I'm still smiling about it. It was one of those rare ones. 200+ people, everyone showed up with food or drinks, kids playing volleyball in the yard, parents swapping stories and laughing until their faces hurt. It genuinely felt like the neighborhood parties I remember from childhood. Nobody was checking their phone and nobody wanted to leave.

We barely knew anyone walking in and left with a list of new people we actually want to see again (Banjo Gary, Dave the Inspector, Russell who has dreams of buying land in Montana). I can't remember the last time that happened at a party.

We rolled in after 11pm, which means today is absolutely a three-cup-of-coffee situation but I have zero regrets. Some nights are just worth it.

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-6’s.

What NAR's Chief Economist Just Told 1,000 Realtors

On Wednesday, my buddy and real estate coach Tommy Choi hosted Dr. Lawrence Yun and Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR for a live market update for my coaching community.

After digesting the interview, here are the six things I noted that every agent and buyer needs to know heading into the second half of 2026.

• NAR's 2026 forecast was slashed from +14% to just +4% home sales growth. Rates briefly touched 6% in February, but then the Iran conflict pushed oil prices up, inflation fears spiked, and rates settled back at 6.5–6.6%. A small rate move has an outsized impact on buyer qualification. Macro events can disrupt your market overnight.

• Watch the 10-year Treasury yield every morning. It's the benchmark mortgage rates follow most closely. As oil prices ease, rates may drift toward 6.2%, but a return to 6% is unlikely given deficit concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Tell your buyers: locking in sooner may be smarter than waiting.

• The median first-time buyer is now 40 years old…an all-time high. Their market share has fallen to just 21% (historically ~40%). High rents, student debt, and childcare costs (near $2,500/month per child in some areas) are the culprits. Every decade of delayed homeownership costs roughly $150,000 in lost equity. Know your buyer pool and market to them accordingly.

• The 20% down payment myth is keeping buyers on the sidelines. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines believing they need 20% down. This misconception is one of the most actionable myths agents and loan officers can bust right now.

• The Fed's data wins the rent vs. buy argument. The Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances shows typical homeowners hold ~$400,000 in wealth versus ~$10,000 for renters, which is a 40x gap. That's your answer when a client says renting is smarter.

• A new lock-in effect is quietly suppressing inventory. Beyond the rate lock-in, Dr. Yun flagged the capital gains exemption lock-in. At $250,000 for single filers, many long-time homeowners face a tax bill if they sell, so they don't. NAR is lobbying to raise the exemption, but until it changes, expect this to quietly hold back supply in established neighborhoods.

The agents who win in this environment show up with data. Bookmark the 10-year Treasury. Use these numbers at every appointment. That's how you stand out.

The Biggest Housing Bill in Decades Is One Signature Away

The Senate passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act 85-5 on June 22 and the House followed 358-32 on June 23 showing extraordinary bipartisan margins that reflect years of frustration over housing affordability. Then President Trump canceled the signing ceremony, calling it "of minor importance" while demanding Congress first pass an unrelated election bill. Politics is fun…right 🙄

But the story isn't over. If Trump neither signs nor vetoes the bill within 10 days while Congress remains in session, it automatically becomes law.

The bill has gone through a number of revisions. Here are some of the final key details:

The legislation restricts large institutional investors controlling 350 or more single-family homes from purchasing additional properties. While institutional investors represent a small national percentage, in cities like Jacksonville, Florida, investors own more than 20% of single-family rentals directly crowding out first-time buyers.

The bill streamlines environmental reviews to speed construction, establishes pre-approved home design patterns to reduce builder costs, and encourages zoning reforms to allow more density including townhomes (one of the most affordable housing types that current zoning laws frequently block).

The final package combines nearly 50 individual housing proposals addressing supply, affordability, financing, zoning, workforce development, and fair housing.

Will it fix the housing market immediately?

Honestly, I don’t think it does. It’s a thorough bill and definitely demonstrates that Congress is interested in helping affordability, but its not going to resolve the nation’s issue of lack of supply anytime soon. The US is dealing with a problem that took decades to create and will take years to correct.

One thing I'll say quietly: don't assume builders will automatically pass their savings on to you. I spent time in corporate retail and learned firsthand that if a company can keep charging what it's charging, it will. Reduced builder costs and reduced home prices are two very different things.

But removing red tape, incentivizing builders, and keeping corporate investors from competing with individual buyers for entry-level homes moves the needle in the right direction. That's progress worth celebrating…once someone actually signs it.

The Hidden Reason Mortgage Rates Aren’t 7.5% Right Now

Oil is down dramatically from its war-driven highs. The Iran ceasefire is holding. So why are mortgage rates still sitting near 6.5%?

Two reasons. First, the elevator up, escalator down problem. Rates spiked nearly 50 basis points almost overnight when the Iran war began. The war lasted long enough to spike consumer prices by 4.2% in May, and traders now see growing odds of at least one rate hike this year, which keeps mortgage rates elevated even as oil retreats.

Second, and this is the part nobody's talking about, there's a hidden cushion keeping rates from being dramatically worse. Kreg and I shared a while back that Fannie Mae was going to start buying up billions in mortgage-backed securities at the direction of President Trump. Its portfolio more than doubled in the past year. When demand for these bonds rises, mortgage rates fall, but it’s a temporary solution.

US News and World Report noted that without this support, your rate would be approximately 7.69% at 2023 spread levels, 7.31% at 2024 levels, and 7.11% at 2025 levels. The difference between 6.49% and 7.69% on a $350,000 loan is roughly $450 per month.

New Fed Chair Warsh has signaled a tightening regime. If this support program changes, the cushion disappears quickly.

Today's rates may be the floor. Act accordingly.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!

Father's Day 2026...started with church, ended with an ER visit. Not exactly the plan, but here we are. After a great morning at church and lunch with Nick and his family, I somehow managed to break my daughter Emery's hand with a softball during what was supposed to be a fun evening with the family. Dad of the Year award is officially off the table 🫠 She's okay, I'm exhausted, and we're both moving on.

But the mortgage world waits for no one, broken hands or not. Let's gooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

A New Sheriff In Town - Expect the Unexpected

We all had that one friend growing up. Dated the same person for years but could never fully commit. For me, it was my boy Bobbie and his girlfriend Rickie. The constant back-and-forth, together, broken up, back together, broken up again, until eventually you just stopped caring. After the 1,625,925th breakup, it's hard to muster sympathy for your boy when you already know exactly how the story ends. He's going straight back to that well.

That's exactly where Nick and I are with this Iran situation. And unfortunately, financial markets are caught right in the middle of it.

We've gone completely numb to the headlines. One day we're on the brink of war: stocks tank, oil spikes, and mortgage rates shoot up. The next day, Trump floats a peace deal: stocks rip, oil tanks, and rates slide back down. Then, right on cue, the whole cycle resets and does it all over again.

At this point, it's just Bobbie and Rickie all over again. And we've officially run out of reactions.

Until the day came when Rickie finally went off to college. I remember getting that call from Bobbie. She broke it off again after her first weekend at Ohio University. Word on the street was that she met a new man. I had that uneasy feeling for my boy that something was different this time. A new sheriff was in town and it was enough to sever their relationship forever.

That's exactly what is happening in the financial markets right now. Jerome Powell is the old high school drama. For eight years, the Fed played the same game, telegraphing every move before making it. Rate cut hints sent stocks soaring. Rate hike talk sent them cratering. Markets didn't move on data, they moved on whatever Powell was hinting at next. It was the Bobbie and Rickie breakup cycle, just dressed up in a suit and tie.

Enter Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair. And just like that new guy at Ohio University, he is changing the dynamic entirely. Warsh has made it clear: the era of forward guidance is over. No more predicting future rate cuts or hikes. No more telegraphing moves months in advance. The Fed will simply look at the data in front of them and make a decision. That's it.

Sounds simple, right? It is. But after eight years of Powell preparing the markets for every move like a weather forecast, this is a massive shift. Expect volatility. Expect uncertainty. And for those of you watching mortgage rates, expect the ride to get a lot less predictable. The new sheriff is in town, and he's not here to hold anyone's hand.

The Bill That Could Unlock a Wave of New Buyers

While everyone has been glued to Iran headlines and Fed drama, a quiet little bill got introduced in Congress last month that nobody is talking about. And honestly, it might matter more to your pipeline than anything Jerome Powell ever said.

Meet the Clean Slate through Rehabilitation Act, introduced April 16, 2026. Here's the gist: right now, when someone defaults on a student loan or collection and then does the right thing by rehabilitating it, only the default itself gets scrubbed from their credit report. All those late payments and delinquencies still show as derogatory items on their credit, dragging down their scores.

This bill changes that. Once a borrower completes rehabilitation, all adverse information tied to that loan gets wiped. Not just the default. Legit everything. It's a genuine fresh start as if the derogatory item never existed.

For everyone in the housing industry, this is a big deal. There are millions of Americans right now who want to buy a home but can't get past the qualification stage because of old student loan damage or past collections haunting their credit report. We're not talking about irresponsible people. We're talking about people who stumbled, did the hard work to fix it, made every payment, and are still being penalized for it. This bill removes that penalty entirely.

Better credit scores mean more borrowers crossing the qualification threshold. More qualified buyers mean more demand. And in a market already starving for inventory, more demand means upward pressure on prices. Whether flooding an inventory-starved market with new buyers is good for the overall health of housing is a conversation for another day. For now, we'll take the win. More people qualified = More people in homes. We can debate the rest later 😉

The Airbnb Gold Rush Is Over. So Where Is the Smart Money Going?

For a solid decade, short-term rentals were one of the most attractive real estate investment strategies available. Buy a property in a desirable market, list it on Airbnb, and generate cash flow that far exceeded traditional long-term rentals.

Those days are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate.

Across the country, cities are cracking down on short-term rentals. Local governments are creating dedicated enforcement teams, requiring registrations and permits, sharing host data with rental platforms, and imposing significant fines for non-compliance. The message is becoming clear: the days of buying a property anywhere and turning it into a profitable Airbnb are fading.

But it is not just the cities you have to worry about anymore. The bigger risk may be the homeowners association (HOA).

An estimated 25 to 30 percent of all Airbnb listings in the U.S. sit inside HOA-governed communities. While some HOAs currently allow short-term rentals, those rules can change quickly. In many communities, all it takes is a supermajority vote of homeowners to amend the governing documents and prohibit short-term rentals altogether.

I experienced this firsthand while evaluating short-term rental opportunities in Sedona, Arizona. Nearly every property located within an HOA was immediately removed from consideration. Many communities already had restrictions in place, and others were actively discussing new limitations. The takeaway should be simple. If your business model depends on short-term rentals, an HOA introduces a level of risk that is difficult to control. You are essentially one community vote away from losing the strategy that justified the purchase in the first place.

So where does the smart money go from here?

Many investors are shifting toward mid-term rentals, typically furnished properties leased for 30 to 90 days. These rentals often attract traveling nurses, remote workers, corporate relocations, and other professionals seeking temporary housing. In many markets, they continue to produce attractive returns while avoiding much of the regulatory scrutiny facing short-term rentals.

The question investors should be asking today is no longer, "How much can this property make on Airbnb?"

Instead, ask yourself: "Where can I generate strong returns without a city council or HOA board having the power to shut down my business model with a single vote?"

That is a question worth answering before making your next investment purchase.

Instagram Posts from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!