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Prediction markets have become something that Sporting Crypto would analyse every couple of months 2 years ago, to something that is cropping up every week.

That’s why we’re launching Predicted, a place for me to write about the business of prediction markets on a weekly basis.

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Home | Predicted

The Business of Prediction Markets. Separate Signal From Noise.

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Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) The Raise 💰
2) What Novig Does 📊
3) The Pivot 🔄
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

The Raise 💰

Novig, a peer-to-peer sports trading platform, announced a $75 million Series B on February 18th, valuing the company at $500 million.

The round was led by Pantera Capital, with participation from Multicoin Capital, Makers Fund, Edge Equity, and existing investors Forerunner Ventures, Perceptive Ventures, and NFX.

It comes as Novig applies for federal regulatory approval with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. CEO Jacob Fortinsky told SBC Americas that the company plans to phase out its sweepstakes offering and transition to a fully CFTC-regulated prediction market within the next six months.

He said:

"Our mission is to democratize and financialize sports markets, and we're proud of the fact that Novig users are 10 times more likely to win than on traditional sportsbooks."

The company's trading volume grew more than tenfold in 2025, reaching $4 billion in annualised platform volume.

What Novig Does 📊

Novig operates as a commission-free, leading sports trading platform in the U.S., proving strong demand for a trader-first alternative to traditional sportsbooks.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks that take a commission — the "vig" — on every bet, Novig matches users against each other on a trading exchange.

On a traditional sportsbook, the implied probability across both sides of a market often totals 110% or more — meaning the house extracts that spread as profit. On a peer-to-peer exchange, the implied probability totals closer to 100%.

The company went through Y Combinator in 2022 and raised a $6.4 million seed round in August 2023, led by Lux Capital. That round included participation from NFL Hall of Famer Joe Montana, Y Combinator, Paul Graham, and several other venture firms.

But that model requires liquidity. And building liquidity in a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory environment is difficult.

Novig launched in New Jersey and Colorado in 2024 as a licensed sportsbook operator. The early traction was slow. The company then pivoted to a sweepstakes model in late 2024, launching in 42 states plus Washington DC.

Sweepstakes platforms avoid gambling licenses by offering users free-to-play virtual currency alongside purchasable premium currency.

For Novig, it worked. The company's volume increased more than 10x in 2025.

Now it wants to go federal, and the way to do that is to become a prediction market via the CFTC.

The Pivot… and Crypto🔄

Novig has applied to operate under CFTC regulation — the same framework used by Kalshi, Polymarket’s US platform and others.

If approved, Novig would become one of a small number of federally regulated prediction market operators authorised to offer sports contracts. Kalshi currently dominates this space, with weekly volume approaching $1 billion and projected annualised volume of $50 billion for 2026.

Fortinsky said that

“We [Novig] chose to partner with the best crypto venture firms in the world to further accelerate our plans to make Novig the most efficient and liquid sports prediction market in the world. Others are using prediction market technology to financialize new markets with unproven demand. We leverage it to fix broken markets where demand already exists.”

How Novig’s infrastructure changes and morphs to leverage crypto will be interesting, but it’s clear that is where the market is heading.

At the end of last year, Kalshi started tokenising some of its markets on Solana — letting them leverage 24/7, permissionless, cross-border attributes that blockchains.

Pantera Capital and Multicoin Capital are both crypto-focused firms. Pantera has backed blockchain infrastructure including Solana, Avalanche, and Polkadot. Multicoin has invested in Polymarket, Helium, and Solana.

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) The prediction market gold rush is accelerating

The number of well-funded entrants in this space is growing every quarter. Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in January. Polymarket is reportedly valued at $9 billion. Fanatics launched a prediction market with Crypto[dot]com infrastructure in December. Coinbase integrated prediction markets via Kalshi in January. Robinhood relaunched its own offering, fully verticalised. Underdog partnered with Crypto[dot]com. And now Novig has raised $75 million.

(2) Crypto capital is flowing into regulated prediction markets

Pantera and Multicoin are not traditional sports betting investors. They are crypto-native funds that typically back blockchain protocols and decentralised infrastructure.

The contracts may be dollar-denominated and CFTC-supervised, but the underlying infrastructure, trading mechanics, and investor base increasingly resemble crypto markets.

The prediction market category is absorbing capital from three separate pools: traditional fintech investors, sports betting operators, and crypto venture firms. That cross-sector interest is unique to this sub-industry.

It’s pretty certain that the future of prediction markets, like all markets, are going to be onchain.

(3) The Regulatory story is to be written

Mike Selig's appointment as CFTC Chairman in January 2026 marked a huge shift. His public support for prediction markets — framing them as information discovery tools rather than gambling.

On the other hand, the pushback is real. 23 senators, Utah's AG, and Florida's governor have all raised concerns. The regulatory environment is more permissive than two years ago, but it is by no means settled.

Dustin Gouker covers the latest on this in the Event Horizon.

(4) The sports-first positioning is deliberate but difficult

Kalshi and Polymarket both cover politics, finance, entertainment, and sports. Novig is positioning itself as the sports-focused alternative.

Sports is the highest-volume category on prediction markets, and the category that most resembles traditional sports betting.

Source: Dune

Polymarket and Kalshi are both seeing $2.5bn+ in weekly sports volume, and for Kalshi, sports contracts account for ~90% of the platform's market share.

But what does a sports first product in prediction markets mean?

Who is the customer? Is it a trader or a traditional sports bettor?

It will be interesting to see the direction that takes from a product perspective, and where Novig land if their CFTC application is successful.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• FanDuel prepared to invest heavily in prediction markets (Read more here)

• AGA: Prediction markets diverted $500M+ in sports betting tax revenue (Read more here)

• Bitget Kicks Off MotoGP 2026 Season With 120,000 USDT Smart Speed Challenge (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Meta plans stablecoin wallet launch for H2 2026 (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1. What is Beezie? 🎰

2. Onchain Collectibles 🃏

3. Concluding Thoughts 💭
   

A digital claw machine just did $26 million in volume.

Beezie launched on Base in December 2025.

In just over two months, the platform has processed:

• 150,000+ pulls

• generated $13.3 million in revenue

• and earned $750,000 in trading fees

What is Beezie? 🎰

A digital claw machine that pulls graded collectible cards.

You pay $25-$50 to "pull" the collectible — all authenticated and vaulted by Brink's. Every pull happens in real time with transparent odds.

You don't get the physical item immediately. You get a digital certificate proving you own it.

Then you can hold it (it stays in the vault), swap it (trade for another item at market value), or redeem it (Beezie ships it to you, insured).

Every item is represented by a 1:1 NFT. Users never need to take physical custody unless they choose to. Items can be traded digitally with instant settlement.

Beezie operates on a dual-fee structure: a 5% platform fee and a 1% creator fee.

The platform also offers a "SWAP" feature — within 15 minutes of receiving an item, users can sell it back to the platform for up to 90% of market value.

If this sounds familiar, it's because this business model was made popular in the onchain ecosystem by Courtyard, who were one of, if not the fastest growing crypto companies in 2025.

[Psst. check out my interview with head of partnerships of Courtyard, Sunil here!]

The platform runs on Base (Coinbase's layer 2 blockchain), and have abstracted away most of the crypto process; low fees, and easy on/off ramps via credit card, Apple Pay, Google Pay, or crypto wallet.

The company raised an undisclosed funding round led by Moonrock Capital in September 2025, and initially launched on the Flow blockchain before going multichain to Base for its claw machine product.

And since moving over to Base, the volume has been incredible.

These numbers are in just over a month, which is incredibly impressive.

Their packaging of the onchain collectible concept is really interesting, and has taken flight.

Onchain Collectibles 🃏

Collectibles have always had three problems: storage, liquidity, and trust.

Where do you keep $10,000 in graded cards? How fast can you sell them? Are they real? Properly graded?

Onchain collectibles solve this. Brink's handles storage. Blockchain handles liquidity. Third-party grading handles trust. And even in the third-party grading, AI is making it so there is more consistency, and less human error there.

But the real unlock for the business model has been combining digital pack rips with digital repackaging. You're not stuck with base cards you'll never sell, every pull has instant resale value. If you don't like what you got, swap it.

As covered in a previous edition of Sporting Crypto, Courtyard has been building similar infrastructure for physical asset tokenisation. Courtyard hit $50+ million in monthly sales late last year and raised a $30 million Series A.

Courtyard focuses on pack-opening experiences via digital vending machines — users rip digital packs to reveal physical cards that are vaulted and tokenised. Beezie uses a claw machine mechanic instead.

Both platforms solve the same core problem: how to trade physical collectibles with the speed and liquidity of digital assets.

And they're not alone in this market.

Collector Crypt have also entered the room, as well as the smaller Phygitals and Emporium. And if you plotted Beezie's numbers on a weekly basis here, it stands up pretty well against the existing platforms in this space.

And whilst on the surface it looks like volumes are more competitive, Courtyard still have the edge when it comes to revenue net of buybacks.

Buybacks are the origin of liquidity in this market and make it a win-win.

The vendor can always ensure they are repacking bought back items to sell them in future packs, and the buyer knows they always have an opportunity to sell items they don't desire.

And the revenue number mooted by Beezie being $13.3m is gross, not net of buybacks.

And if we compare the ratios between volume and revenue-net-of-buybacks, then we can really dig into how well these businesses are doing.

According to the data from Dune:

Courtyard does $3.5 million in weekly volume and generates $1.05 million in revenue net of buybacks — a 3.3x ratio, equivalent to a 30% take rate.

Collector Crypt does $7.0 million in weekly volume but generates only $0.9 million in revenue net of buybacks — a 7.8x ratio, equivalent to a 13% take rate.

Source

Collector Crypt drives twice the volume, but Courtyard captures more than twice the revenue per dollar of volume.

Source

Volume is half the battle.

And Beezie's $13.3m gross revenue number is great, but they also point to $750k in fees, which would mean they are at a ~14x ratio which would be a ~6% take rate.

Ascertaining the success of these businesses requires the entire picture, and it's not as easy as pointing to one metric or the other.

One thing is for certain, however, is that the battle in the onchain collectibles market is really heating up.

Companies are repacking (no pun intended) the concept, lowering margins and trying their best to calibrate the right way to dominate a market that is really exploding.

This is one we'll keep digging into on Sporting Crypto.

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) Tokenised collectibles are finding product-market fit

Tokenised collectibles are moving beyond proof-of-concept. Multiple platforms have now found ways to package physical asset ownership, onchain. 

The vault-and-trade model solves real problems: no shipping delays, no re-authentication at each sale, instant liquidity, global access.

But where does this go and who builds the most successful business?

(2) Is there a moat in onchain collectibles?

The question is whether there's a real moat in this market, and how you create loyalty when most users are crypto-native and can exit to a competitor with near-zero friction.

Disconnect wallet. Connect wallet. 

The moat comes from two things: inventory depth (operations) and liquidity (users and capital).

How much graded product do you have vaulted? 

How quickly can users trade in and out? 

Those are the defensive positions. 

But even that feels fragile. 

If a well-capitalised competitor enters and decides to compress take rates closer to zero — which is entirely plausible — how many collectors actually stay loyal to the platform they're using today?

(3) Base is dominating the consumer crypto landscape right now

Coinbase has a massive consumer base. 41% of their revenue comes from trading fees, which suggests a substantial retail user footprint. Base inherits that distribution advantage.

And once you have a few consumer hits on the chain, it becomes self-reinforcing. 

Builders go where the users already are. 

Beezie doing $26 million in volume in 1.5 months on Base makes it easier for the next consumer app to justify launching there instead of somewhere else. 

(4) Zora just left Base. But Beezie has done 100x the volume that Zora did in 2026. 

Zora has pivoted multiple times: NFTs, Creator Coins (memecoins tied to influencers), and now a prediction market on Solana. They've left Base entirely.

That's a company searching for product-market fit and not finding it.

Zora reportedly did around $250,000 in revenue at the start of this year. It was one of the flagship consumer products on Base. And Beezie has already exceeded that in gross revenue in its first two months.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Novig raises $75M at $500M valuation as sports-focused prediction market (Read more here)

• Crypto Snack unveils five-pillar ecosystem spanning Premier League partnership, RWA tokenisation, and iGaming (Read more here)

• KuCoin partners with world-class cyclist Tadej Pogačar (Read more here)

• Signing Day Sports to merge with BlockchAIn, vote scheduled March 13th (Read more here)

• Kalshi strikes sports hedging deal with Game Point Capital following $1B+ Super Bowl trading volume (Covered in last week's Sporting Crypto)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Logan Paul sells PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator card for $16.5M, setting new auction record (Read more here)

• 'The Sandbox' Adds Web-Based Games in Season 7 Accessibility Push (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5500+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) The Deal 🤝 
2) The $9 Billion Market — In Context 🌐 
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

Hedging, not betting.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour took to X to announce a partnership with Game Point Capital, a specialist sports insurance broker.

They name MLS, CAA, Olympics, NHL, PGA and others as clients they service.

In short, the partnership means the prediction market giant can offer cheaper, more transparent hedging for sports insurance businesses looking to manage their exposure to performance-based bonus payouts.

It is a genuinely interesting development.

One that deserves proper context — because the numbers tell a more nuanced story than the headline suggests.

The Deal 🤝 

Game Point Capital issues hundreds of millions of dollars in sports insurance annually.

Their bread and butter is performance bonus coverage — the type of policies that protect teams from large, sudden payouts triggered when players or coaches hit contractual milestones like making the playoffs, advancing in the postseason, or winning a championship.

Traditionally, insurers like Game Point offload this risk to reinsurance providers such as Lloyd's of London. These are over-the-counter (OTC) deals: opaque pricing, limited counterparties, and little transparency.

Kalshi argues that an exchange model — where multiple participants compete to provide pricing in an open marketplace — can do this more cheaply.

In his post on X, Mansour points to two examples:

Game Point executed basketball-related hedges on Kalshi for NBA teams.

One covered a bonus tied to a team reaching the postseason, priced at 6% on Kalshi versus 12-13% in the OTC reinsurance market. A second contract, covering advancement to the second round, came in at 2% on Kalshi versus 7-8% OTC.

Those are significant cost savings.

If they hold across a broader range of contracts, it is a compelling proposition.

The way it works is that companies like Game Point Capital can use Kalshi’s “request for quotation,” a system for soliciting bids for particular contracts. Market makers on the platform can then find counterparties, helping build up volume.

Mansour pointed to Kalshi's growing liquidity as the enabler. During Super Bowl LX, the exchange reportedly could have processed a $22 million trade without meaningfully moving the market price. Kalshi expects to facilitate tens of millions of dollars in hedging from Game Point alone in the coming months.

Will Hall, Game Point Capital's co-founder and CEO, told the New York Times' ($$$) that they “want to offer the most efficient pricing for teams and other clients”

Kalshi wants to expand this business. It has been building up a team to focus on sports hedging, according to posts on LinkedIn.

The $9 Billion Market — In Context 🌐 

Mansour framed sports insurance and reinsurance as a $9 billion annual market, projected to double by 2030.

That covers a range of products: brand sponsorship guarantees, event cancellations, player compensation structures, and performance-based bonuses.

Those are real numbers. But it is worth putting them alongside the other markets that prediction platforms are eyeing — and the ones they are already competing in.

The global sports betting market is valued at roughly $100-112 billion in 2024/2025, depending on which research firm you ask, and is projected to reach $187-258 billion by 2030-2033. Prediction market trading volume across all platforms reached approximately $63.5 billion in 2025, up from $15.8 billion in 2024, according to blockchain security firm CertiK.

January 2026 alone, Kalshi recorded $9.6 billion in trading volume.

Even the sports memorabilia and collectibles market — physical jerseys, trading cards, signed equipment — is estimated at $27-39 billion depending on scope, and growing at double-digit rates.

So, while meaningful in absolute terms, the $9 billion sports insurance market is a fraction of the addressable opportunities available to these platforms.

Even doubling to $18 billion by 2030 would make it a niche within the broader prediction market ecosystem.

That is not necessarily a problem. But it does frame the announcement for what it is: an interesting proof of concept for institutional hedging utility, not a market-defining revenue opportunity.

But what do these numbers actually mean?

Market, volume, and handle — these are not the same.

In fact, Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings in their recent earnings that they had $54bn wagers handled in 2025.

Handle is the number of wagers actually placed. $100 bet = $100 increase in handle.

But Robins did something very interesting. He framed another figure, to make things more comparable to prediction markets.

He said:

"Our total potential payouts across all open wagers, or capital at risk, was $2.5 trillion due to the multiplicative nature of parlays."

To me, this is another metric that doesn’t tell us much.

Let’s break this down step by step.

When someone refers to ‘the size of a market’ they are referring to one of three things:

1) Revenue (XYZ company sector ABC made $100bn in revenue this year, which is what the market size is)
2) Market cap (The market cap of crypto assets is $2 trillion)
3) Market Size and Volume (This market has $100bn in volume, making the market, both sides trading, worth this much)

So let’s get down to basics.

Statista define a $77.18 billion figure for 2025 as Gross Gambling Revenue (GGR) for the global sports betting market. That is how much money gambling companies kept in 2025 versus payouts. That is their revenue from sports bets, essentially.

DraftKings Revenue was $6.05 billion in 2025, vs. their $54 billion handle number, and their $2.5 trillion liability position.

If we do this for Kalshi, their revenue was $263.5 million in 2025, vs. their $23.8 billion in volume in 2025. The delta in revenue here is about 100x, compared to DraftKings,’ which is ~9.5x. But wait, it’s a 415x multiple to their ‘liabilities’ of $2.5 trillion.

Let’s get back to the insurance market that Kalshi have started playing in.

What does this mean, principally, when a market is $9bn in size?

In my estimation, this is the market size, or the volume of the OTC deals being done in this market. So this is best tracked against the $23.8 billion in volume Kalshi had in 2025, or the $9 billion + in volume they’ve already seen in Jan 2026.

What I’m getting at here is that this market is

1) Significant considering Kalshi’s current volumes
2) Insignificant compared to the total gambling market
3) Quite niche

Why It Matters Beyond the Numbers 🔢 

The significance of this partnership is less about the TAM, volume or revenue and more about the narrative.

Kalshi and the broader prediction market industry are locked in a multi-state regulatory battle over whether sports event contracts constitute unlicensed sports betting.

Courts in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Connecticut have all recently given state regulators room to pursue temporary bans.

Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against Massachusetts this week, arguing that federal commodities regulation preempts state gambling law.

Kalshi is appealing a Nevada ruling and fighting a cease-and-desist in Tennessee.

It’s a messy backdrop, and a difficult situation that won’t end any time soon.

The more interesting question to me is about liquidity and how deep these markets can go. It’s a great use case, but one that will ultimately still be facilitated by sports bettors and secondly, not always be used by insurers and reinsurers.

Insurance hedging requires someone to take the other side of the trade. In an OTC market, that counterparty is a reinsurer who has evaluated the risk and priced it accordingly.

On an exchange, you need sufficient liquidity from participants willing to hold that exposure. The bids and asks are there; it’s whether people want to take those prices and can they move them in size?

Traditional OTC markets have a feature that exchanges sometimes lack: the willingness of specialist reinsurers to take on bespoke, illiquid risk at a price.

Exchanges work brilliantly when there is broad interest in both sides of a trade.

They struggle when one side is much more motivated than the other.

Furthermore, OTC deals are often done at a discount precisely because the insurer is bulk-transferring risk in one go, especially in illiquid markets.

Mansour's Super Bowl liquidity stat — a $22 million trade processed without meaningful price impact — is encouraging. But the Super Bowl is the single most liquid event on any sports platform. The real test will be whether that depth exists for the kinds of contracts Game Point is actually trying to hedge.

Concluding Thoughts 💬 

(1) The hedging use case is real, but the market is small. A $9 billion sports insurance market is legitimate, and Kalshi's exchange-based pricing is demonstrably cheaper than OTC alternatives for the contracts tested so far. But in the context of the broader prediction market industry — now doing over $13 billion in monthly volume — and the $100+ billion sports betting market, sports insurance hedging is a rounding error in terms of revenue potential. Even Kalshi's own expectation of "tens of millions" from Game Point confirms this is an additive feature, not a core business driver.

(2) The real value is regulatory. At a time when multiple states are arguing that sports event contracts are simply unlicensed gambling, Kalshi can now point to an institutional client using its platform for genuine risk management. See recent Sporting Crypto podcast guest Samir Patel’s recent tweet thread for more information on this.

(3) Liquidity will determine whether this scales or stays niche. The initial pricing advantage is great: 6% versus 12-13%, 2% versus 7-8%. But those savings only matter if the exchange consistently has the depth to absorb institutional-sized hedging positions across a wide range of sporting outcomes, not just the Super Bowl or NBA Finals, but mid-tier scenarios where the OTC market currently has the advantage of bespoke risk appetite.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Revolut becomes a Global Partner and Official Back of Shirt Partner of Manchester City (Read more here)

• Bybit Named Title Partner of Stockholm Open (Read more here)

• DraftKings now offers player prop-style contracts from Crypto[dot]com (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Polymarket investor Vitalik Buterin says prediction markets need to stop catering to 'dumb opinions' (Read more here)

• Robinhood’s Ethereum Layer-2 Network Enters Public Testnet Phase (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back! 🚨

In this episode we're joined by:

• Samir Patel, Associate @ Holland & Knight LLP

We discuss:

• 💢 Pain points in sports IP and blockchain deals

• 👀 Sports leagues' interest in blockchain for fan loyalty

• 🔐 Explanation of private seat licenses and tokenization

• 🧩 Tokenized fractional ownership of pro sports teams

• 📖 Regulatory guide to prediction markets in the US

• 🥊 Self certification and state vs federal regulatory conflict

• ⚖️ Litigation theater across Third, Fourth and Ninth Circuits

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5500+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Strap in for a long read on prediction markets.

Discussed in today’s Sporting Crypto:

1. The exploding volumes

2. The market participants

3. The Tam

4. The Product

5. The consumer

6. Not all contracts are made the same

7. Regulation and the bifurcation between speculation and serious business

In the midst of a supermarket marketing battle between Kalshi and Polymarket, the start of 2026 for Prediction Markets (PMs) has been fascinating.

Volumes have grown so large that every financial institution, crypto exchange, and sportsbook is looking seriously at this space:

 April 2024: $20M weekly volume
 November 2024: $2.5B weekly volume (US election)
 January 2026: $6B weekly volume

It’s a gold rush that amalgamates many disparate business types, all competing with one another.

And whilst this feels like a bubble, we have not seen the half of it yet.

CBOE are in talks to bring back “all or nothing markets” to compete with Prediction Markets.

Coinbase launched the fully integrated ‘Coinbase Predict’.

Crypto[dot]com spun out their prediction market product called OG, whilst simultaneously driving B2B2C volumes with Underdog, amongst others.

And Hyperliquid, crypto’s biggest decentralised perpetuals protocol, is also readying an embedded prediction markets feature.

Calling this a gold rush is underplaying it.

Many assumed prediction market volumes would collapse after the 2024 election.

Instead, they've gone parabolic.

Source: Datadashboards via Dune

So, who are the players driving the explosive rise, and how do you categorise them?

Source: Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on X

1. Prediction Market Businesses

Kalshi and Polymarket built this category.

These are businesses that are B2C, prediction markets-focused, although at times have also gone B2B2C — Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood is the best example of this.

This category solely serves the prediction market product, and there are many others — Myriad, Limitless, to name a couple.

There are nuances to the approach, business model and level of ‘onchain-ness’, but these businesses are fundamentally Prediction Markets at their core.

2. Crypto Exchanges

Coinbase launched prediction markets to US users in late January 2026, sourcing order flow from Kalshi.

Crypto[dot]com just launched OG, a standalone prediction markets app that will be the first platform to offer margin trading on event contracts — and have also gone B2B2C, powering Underdog’s product and many others.

Gemini launched prediction markets in December 2025.

For crypto exchanges, this is about becoming "everything exchanges" — diversifying beyond spot crypto trading into stocks, derivatives, and now event contracts.

3. Sportsbooks and DFS Operators

FanDuel (Flutter) is partnering with CME Group for its upcoming prediction market launch.

Yep, that’s the CME group, the oldest exchange in America.

DraftKings launched its DraftKings predictions product in December 2025, initially in 38 states.

Underdog partnered with Crypto[dot]com to roll out prediction markets, too.

Smarkets and Matchbook are both redesigning their UI to look and feel like prediction markets rather than exchanges.

Fanatics launched Fanatics Markets.

At this point, not one sportsbook or adjacent business has indicated that they’re not looking at this space seriously, at this point.

Sportsbooks see prediction markets as a way to reach customers in states where traditional sports betting remains illegal. It is regulatory arbitrage right now. But some also see this as a bigger market than just sports gambling, and a way to protect against haemorrhaging customer deposits.

4. Financial Institutions

The biggest signal that prediction markets have arrived is the involvement of traditional financial infrastructure.

ICE (Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the NYSE) took a $2 billion stake in Polymarket.

CME Group has partnered with FanDuel to power its prediction market offering.

Goldman Sachs is reportedly exploring the space.

Robinhood is acquiring LedgerX to gain its own exchange and clearinghouse infrastructure, verticalising, removing the need for Kalshi in the background.

If you think this is just sports gambling, I’m here to tell you you are wrong.

5. Crypto Native Businesses

Isolating this to everything other than exchanges, which, for the most part, facilitate the purchasing of cryptoassets.

Hyperliquid are the best example of this, likely embedding prediction markets into their protocol.

Jupiter, a decentralised exchange on Solana, recently integrated Polymarket.

Crypto wallet Phantom has a Kalshi integration that allows users to trade event contracts via their interface.

The onchain, natively embedded, prediction markets piece of this space is interesting.

They’re either being built themselves or embedded via a third party (e.g. Jupiter and Polymarket).

The TAM 🌐 

When you have so many different types of businesses going after the same market, it’s difficult to know:

1. The TAM

2. The Customer

   and

3. What is the product is?

Let’s begin with (1) the TAM.

One might think that the starting point is sports gambling, because 90% of Kalshi’s volumes stem from sports wagers, and Polymarkets '~40%.

In the United States, nationwide sports betting handle topped $166 billion in Feb 2026, whilst the global market is valued at ~$600bn.

But are those metrics useful?

Not especially, when the CEO of Interactive Brokers, a $110bn company, said that they are ‘working on approaching’ temperature, electricity and natural gas contracts.

And the CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, said that Prediction markets are ‘super interesting’, going on to say:

When a $110bn and $270bn company, two of the biggest in finance, indicate interest here, you can be sure that they’re not looking at sports wagering.

That is small fry for them.

“We’ll leave it to the FanDuels and the Robinhoods and others that are positioning themselves as gambling firms”

Said the Charles Schwab CEO, Rick Wurster, in a recent interview.

So how do you adjust for the TAM when there is involvement from companies worth more than the entire U.S. sports betting market?

The answer is that it’s really difficult to do, because we simply do not know the extent of the utility that the accuracy of prediction markets brings to the table.

But we do have some directional hints.

We know that it gives professional investors the ability to hedge market exposure (rate cuts, earnings calls, elections and more).

And it stems from how deadly accurate they are.

Prediction Marketsare more accurate than the media, and the closer they get to the finalisation of the event, the more accurate they are.

Indeed, for things that are really difficult to accurately forecast, even in their infancy, prediction markets reign supreme. During the recent storm that hit the East Coast of the U.S., Kalshi was more accurate in predicting inches of snowfall than the National Weather Service.

H/T Alanwu on X

Kalshi's implied forecast (green line) fluctuated between 11 and 13 inches throughout the period, consistently hovering around the eventual outcome.
 
The National Weather Service (orange line) started at 12 inches, then revised downward multiple times — dropping to 10.8, then 9.7 inches as the storm approached.
 
By the time snow began falling on January 25th, Kalshi was closer to reality while NWS had adjusted away from it.
 
This is a small sample size, and weather prediction is notoriously difficult. But it's a useful illustration of what prediction markets can do by using the wisdom of the crowds.

And so to ascertain the TAM of Prediction Markets is very didfciult right now, and any analyst saying they can do so is licking their finger and raising it to the sky.

So let’s take a step back.

There is huge value in the accuracy of the outcome of these markets.

But the reality is that most of the volume right now is being driven by sports trading and wagering.

And whilst we can bifurcate the mechanism by which the outcome is paid out (sportbook = house, prediction market = P2P) — it is fundamentally the same thing.

If you are wagering that a team will win a game, whether the payout is from another customer or a centralised party doesn’t fundamentally matter. Of course, we can argue that sportsbooks limit successful participants, and exchanges are incentivised to do the opposite - because it’s a volume-based business.

The TAM is difficult to pinpoint — but what does a) the sports wagering dominance and b) the deadly accuracy imply for (2) the customer?

The Customer ❓️ 

This is where we are seeing a split.

There is this wistful idea that Polymarket and Kalshi will take massive market share from sportbooks, but that’s not the case right now and may never be.

I’ll explain why.

Firstly, the UI is fundamentally too complicated for the average sports bettor — even if the ‘Yes/No’ interface from prediction markets is easier to process than a traditional excahnge.

On the left is Fanduel Sportsbook, and on the right is the presidential election winner 2024 order book on Polymarket.

Sports bettors are used to odds being displayed and picking their winner.

If you show the right-hand side to any sports bettor, they won’t know what is going on. And even though all Prediction Markets show ‘Yes/No’ and the percentage outcome is intuitive, the real volume comes from sophisticated traders who know their way around an order book.

Secondly, the type of activity is divergent because parlays are key to sportsbook success (although prediction markets are trying to replicate this).

Parlays (or accumulators in British speak) are multi-leg bets. Your odds are boosted because the probability is lower that multiple of your bets win.

For sportsbooks, around 30% of their bets taken are from parlays, but they account for a huge percentage of revenue in the U.S.

And their popularity is rising, too.

Prediction markets are trying to get in on this action with what they call ‘combos’.

The issue is, this incredibly profitable form of gambling is hard for a prediction market to replicate.

The reason is simple: you need someone to be on the other end of every leg of a parlay. And if those things cross domains (Trump to win and the Seattle Seahawks to win), then market makers who are taking the other side of those legs will struggle. And to boot, liquidity is stretched the more legs there are, and market makers want to be making liquid markets, not making markets so that gamblers can place a parlay.

This is a product built for a centralised party, to underwrite, payout if there is a win, and in the long run always win.

The data backs this up so far.

Source: InGame

Per InGame, in 2025 for Kalshi:

“While parlay volume came to $947.8 million, that figure may be misleading, as most Kalshi users can only bet the “Yes” side of a parlay, but the volume data includes both sides. As most parlays are at longer odds, the vast majority of volume in the data comes from institutional market makers.”

This basically means that you can halve the $947.8m number to get a fairer representation of parlay volume. But even then, the fees generated are minuscule when compared to a sportsbook:

“Fees from parlays on Kalshi came to just $3.7 million, a tiny fraction of the volume that a major sportsbook makes from parlays. In states that report parlay revenue, the bets make up more than 50% of sportsbook revenue. At Kalshi, over the final three months of the year, they made up around 2%.”

Fundamentally, even though most of the volume driven on Kalshi, and significant volumes driven on Polymarket, are from sports, they are not seriously encroaching on the most profitable venue of sports wagering that sportsbooks have to offer.

In a market, you need as many market participants and volume to drive the most revenue. If these prediction markets focus on retail bettors, with their current product offerings, they will not get to the figures they require to grow into their valuations.

This raises the question: (3) What is the product?

The Product 📱 

If the answer to the question (2), who is the customer, is muddled based on the interface, offerings and data we are seeing from prediction markets. Are they bettors or traders?

Here, there is a bifurcation as well.

And it’s mainly, so far, from sportsbooks, crypto exchanges and brokers (Robinhood) — and they are choosing whether to be embedded or not.

Crypto[dot]com, Underdog and many others have created standalone products for prediction markets.

For Underdog, this makes sense if you are trying to a) drive volume from states you were not previously allowed in due to gambling laws b) protect your existing licenses, and c) ensure there is no cannibalisation of your existing business.

For Crypto[dot]com — it makes less sense on the surface to launch ‘OG’ their standalone prediction market app, considering they already have traders on their existing crypto exchange. But perhaps in their eyes, they are trying to actively pursue the sports gambling segment — and draw a line between the two businesses that is thick enough,

For others — Coinbase, Robinhood, DraftKings, HyperLiquid — they have embedded or are going to embed these products.

That makes sense, because you are offering a trading product to customers who are already used to trading.

This spectrum does raise the question as to whether we can bucket all types of contracts into one, especially when different demographics are using different contract types.

That’s because not all contracts are made the same…

Contracts and Regulation 🤹 

⚽ (1) With sports outcomes, there is almost symmetrical data for participants, and almost anyone can build a model. Prediction markets just provide a P2P way to wager on sports, but with a different user interface.

📊 (2) When predicting the price of an asset, this is a derivative. There is already a market there, but prediction markets are just a way to hedge or get exposure to an asset via the price action.

🌐 (3) In examples like the weather contracts (as per above) and media, we are truly seeing a better, more accurate way to spit out information.

At some point, there will be a line drawn between speculative nonsense and what is ostensibly sports wagering redressed, and the incredibly valuable data that is often generated from these markets. You would think, at least.

This leads to what is moulding and driving this market, which is regulation, or lacketherof.

Last week, the general counsel of Coinbase took to X to announce that the Nevada Gaming Control Board tried to get the NV state court to stop Coinbase from offering event contracts, sports or otherwise.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong took to the social platform to defend their move and accuse state regulators of protecting incumbents from competition:

The reality of this is that there is confusion amongst all market participants about the TAM, the customer, the product and how to categorise event contracts, and develop products and businesses for the above.

Regulation, as it falls right now, does not differ between someone betting on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl and someone hedging their clients’ stock portfolio against an election or earnings call. 

How does that make any sense?

Coinbase saying that states are not protecting customers and protecting incumbents is as true as it is false.

Because multiple things can be true:

1. Sports contracts are competitive to the bottom line of sportsbooks, but not to every product offering they have

2. Sports contracts vs Derivatives vs ‘truth seeking’ (media, weather, etc.) are to some extent entirely different propositions

3. The CFTC have sleepwalked into a situation where this market is far too big to incinerate, and like crypto 4 years ago, needs guardrails, rules and customer protections that are appropriate.

All the while, new CFTC chair Mike Selig says “strong disagree” to the notion that Prediction Markets are violating state law.

We stand in a peculiar place with prediction markets.

It’s quite clear that the end value is extremely valuable in a subset of contracts.

It’s okay that these things could eat market share from sportsbooks, as long as they have the appropriate consumer guardrails (which currently they do not).

The current commentary is so overwhelmingly fixated on sports contracts. And as I come to the end of this 3000-word piece on prediction markets, all of this was essentially distilled recently by Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster:

• “The first is that prediction markets offer you insights into the probability of different events. As an investor, that information is good to know about.”

• On sports contracts: “That’s something we really struggle with and is counter to our mission” — “people generally don’t get better off in their financial life via gambling”

  and

• “We’ll leave it to the FanDuels and the Robinhoods and others that are positioning themselves as gambling firms”

People are really struggling to see the forest from the trees.

In the short term, the muddled fixation on sports contracts will be resolved, and hopefully with a strong view to consumer protections.

But in the longer term, prediction markets are going to be disruptive, innovative and bigger than 99% of people think across several industries.

There will be a lot of nonsense along the way, but fundamentally, the wisdom of the crowd is incredibly accurate and valuable.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Crypto[dot]com unveils OG prediction markets platform (Read more here)

• Coinbase only crypto company to advertise during Super Bowl (Read more here)

• Chiliz announce ‘Chiliz 2030’ (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Crypto Exchange Gemini Slashes Jobs Amid Exit From Europe, Australia (Read more here)

• Crypto[dot]com CEO bought Ai.[dot]com in record deal, debuts during Super Bowl (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5500+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) The Deal 🤝
2) X Games League Structure 🛹
3) MoonPay's Evolution 🌑 
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

The Deal 🤝

X Games has existed as a standalone event series for 30 years.

That era is now over.

On January 25th, during the final standalone X Games event in Aspen, the action sport organisation announced a three-year title partnership with MoonPay, the crypto payments company with 30 million customers across 180 countries.

That deal establishes the MoonPay X Games League (XGL).

It is reportedly worth eight figures and gives MoonPay category exclusivity across finance, banking, and crypto — meaning no other company in those sectors can partner with the league.

X Games is undergoing a full structural transformation — from individual, invitation-only competitions into a year-round, team-based, co-ed professional league. And MoonPay has positioned itself as the anchor sponsor of that new entity.

Although this is MoonPay's first major activation as a sports sponsor, the company has worked with brands like Mastercard on their Pass to Priceless platform, but that was in a vendor capacity.

This is different.

This is MoonPay putting its name on a league and buying category exclusivity.

Jeremy Bloom, CEO of X Games, said:

Ivan Soto Wright, Founder and CEO of MoonPay said:

X Games League Structure 🛹

The new structure was announced back in September 2024, with former Olympic freestyle skier and NFL player Jeremy Bloom appointed as CEO, intending to professionalise the sport.

Enter the X Games League (XGL).

It borrows from Formula 1 and traditional professional sports with four inaugural summer clubs — Los Angeles, New York, São Paulo, and Tokyo — drafting 10 athletes from a pool of over 150 elite skateboarders and BMX riders.

The draft is scheduled for March 12, 2026, at Cosm in Los Angeles, and will stream live on ESPN+. General managers for each club have been announced, including skateboarding legend Bob Burnquist leading Club São Paulo.

The summer season launches in Sacramento on June 26, followed by a stop in Japan, and then a championship event. A winter season covering snowboarding and freeskiing begins in 2027.

Athletes will receive a base salary with additional earning potential through team structures. Paid travel expenses, health insurance stipends, and team-based support structures are all part of the new model, meaning athletes have now got a base level of financial support — rather than relying solely on prize money.

The more interesting component of MoonPay's involvement is the pass-through model. If I’ve read this correctly, MoonPay can extend its partnership rights to companies within its own network, allowing them to activate within the XGL ecosystem through integrated experiences.

It's similar to how AWS and other huge tech businesses market through their partner network. This one relationship opens the door for an entire ecosystem of companies.

Except here, the ecosystem is crypto and the venue is action sports.

Rather than individual crypto companies each negotiating their own sponsorship deals, MoonPay has created a single entry point for the broader industry into action sports.

MoonPay isn't the only crypto-adjacent company building around the new league.

Stake, the online casino and sports betting platform, was confirmed as the exclusive betting partner of the XGL. The Stake-owned streaming service Kick will exclusively livestream all four global XGL events each year, plus the summer and winter drafts. Stake will also collaborate with athletes on co-branded content through an Athlete Ambassador Fund.

Monster Energy became the first founding partner of the XGL back in 2025.

ESPN will broadcast over 100 hours of X Games content across ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, and ESPN+ over the next two years, with global YouTube livestreaming.

MoonPay's Evolution 🌐

So why now?

MoonPay have been a huge player in the crypto industry over the last 5 years — but this is their first major sports or brand sponsorship.

The company started as a simple crypto on-ramp — a way for consumers to buy cryptoassets with a credit or debit card. During the pandemic-era bull run, it became one of the most widely integrated payment processors in crypto, powering transactions on platforms like OpenSea. This led to a $3.4 billion valuation in late 2021.

But MoonPay's core business had a structural problem. On-ramping and off-ramping — converting fiat to crypto and back — is becoming an ever more commoditised market.

Competition has increased dramatically, and over time, pricing will trend toward zero.

The cheapest operators with the largest network effects will win that race.

MoonPay recognised this early and have spent the last two years horizontally integrating across a much broader product set.

In June 2025, they secured a New York BitLicense.

In November 2025, they obtained a New York Trust Charter from the NYDFS, authorising them to provide digital asset custody and OTC trading services.

That puts them alongside Coinbase, PayPal, Ripple, and NYDIG as one of the few companies holding both a BitLicense and a Trust Charter in New York.

They've also been acquiring companies at pace — Helio (Solana-based payments, $175 million), stablecoin infrastructure company Iron, onchain payment tool Decent.xyz, and Meso to improve US on-ramp capabilities.

In 2025, Mastercard tapped MoonPay for stablecoin-powered cards that convert crypto to fiat automatically at the point of sale.

The company reported being cash-flow positive and profitable in 2024, and now powers infrastructure for nearly 500 enterprise customers.

In March 2025, MoonPay secured a $200m line of credit from Galaxy Digital and in December 2025, it was reported that NYSE’s parent company ICE was in talks to invest in MoonPay at a $5 billion valuation, a 47% increase from the 2021 round.

This is not the same MoonPay that in 2021 reached a lofty valuation off the back of processing payments for Bored Ape NFTs.

This is a much more sophisticated business in 2026.

And this sponsorship, to me, alongside the news that ICE may invest in the company make me think going public is on the horizon.

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) This is MoonPay's most strategic brand investment to date. The company has spent the past two years building serious financial infrastructure — NY Trust Charter, BitLicense, Mastercard partnership, multiple acquisitions. The X Games title partnership is the consumer-facing extension of that strategy. MoonPay doesn't just want to be the backend payments processor that nobody sees. It wants brand recognition alongside Coinbase and PayPal, and a sports title partnership is one of the fastest ways to achieve that.

(2) The pass-through model is the most underrated element of this deal. The mechanism to bring its entire partner ecosystem into the league is interesting. It’s a first that I’ve seen, and probably only works with a greenfield league but it is definitely something to watch.

(3) The real question is whether the XGL can build a sustainable audience — and recent history suggests that's extremely difficult. Greenfield leagues struggle for a plethora of reasons. It takes enormous capital to survive long enough to build an audience that generates meaningful revenue. And if the model relies on the traditional media playbook — build an audience, sell media rights — it's going to be incredibly tough to compete with existing sports IP that already has decades of built-in loyalty.

We've seen this play out repeatedly. Baller League, the six-a-side indoor football competition backed by Mats Hummels and Lukas Podolski, made a huge splash in the UK with celebrity managers including Gary Lineker, Alan Shearer, John Terry, and Luis Figo. It secured a Sky Sports broadcast deal and KSI as the UK president. But in January 2026, it paused operations in Germany — its country of origin — after failing to turn a profit despite million-euro revenues. The organisation said Germany "does not offer the necessary size and structural conditions" to support long-term goals. Three seasons in, and the home market couldn't sustain it. And broadly, Baller League is seen as a success when looking at greenfield sports leagues.

Fan Controlled Football told a similar story. The crypto-native 7-on-7 league raised $40 million in a Series A led by Animoca Brands and Delphi Digital in early 2022, with Bored Ape Yacht Club among its team owners. Season 3 was cancelled, and the league has been dormant ever since.

The absence of an anchor media rights deal is the fundamental challenge. Without that baseline revenue, greenfield leagues are running on venture capital and sponsor money — and both can evaporate quickly. The XGL has ESPN broadcasting over 100 hours of content, which is a strong start. But whether that translates to sustainable, recurring audience engagement in a team-based format for sports that have always been about individual expression remains the open question.

(4) Don't be surprised if an IPO is on the horizon. There is a clear pattern emerging in crypto right now: companies without a token, post-Series B, are all looking at how quickly they can go public. BitGo rang the bell on the NYSE in just this month, jumping nearly 25% on its first day. Kraken filed its S-1 confidentially in November 2025, targeting a listing in H1 2026 at a $20 billion valuation.

MoonPay hasn't officially announced IPO plans, but the pieces are falling into place.

Viewed through that lens, a high-profile sports title partnership makes even more sense. A brand-building exercise for a company that may soon need mainstream name recognition on a prospectus. The XGL won't be tier one in terms of audience size, but it gives MoonPay something most crypto companies don't have: visible, consumer-facing brand equity tied to a sports property.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• MLS partners with Polymarket in prediction market agreement (Read more here)

• DraftKings Expands Crypto-to-Cash Funding in Select States (Read more here)

• From Sportico: What Are Sports Prediction Markets? (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Robinhood is investing in crypto trading platform Talos at $1.5 billion valuation (Read more here)

• Tether Launches US-Regulated USAT Stablecoin (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back! 🚨

In this episode we're joined by:

• Ahmed Nimale, CEO & Co-Founder @ KYD Labs

We discuss:

• ⛓️ How blockchain ticketing addresses liquidity and capital for venues

• 🕵 The inefficiencies and fraud in the secondary ticket market

• 💸 Using on-chain liquidity protocols like Aave for ticket financing

• ⛔️ Why NFT ticket standards failed for real-world use cases

• 🤔 State of the blockchain ticketing industry and common misconceptions

• 🥊 How TIX protocol enables competition against Ticketmaster's dominance

• ❗️ Key pain points for sports teams: season ticket holder retention

• ✅ The role of blockchain in solving backend capital needs

• 🔮 Future of interoperable fan experiences and expanding the market

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) McLaren Racing Partner with Hedera 🏁 
2) McLaren Racing’s Track Record 📆 
3) The Commercial Reality 💵 
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

➡️ Quick disclaimer — Sporting Crypto is sponsored by Hedera Foundation, part of the Hedera Ecosystem ⬅️ 

McLaren Racing Partner with Hedera 🏁 

McLaren Racing have been one of the most prolific and, by many metrics, successful sports franchises when it comes to blockchain innovation.

And this week, they announced a multi-year partnership with Hedera, naming them Official Partner of both the McLaren Mastercard Formula 1 Team and the Arrow McLaren IndyCar Team.

The deal will see Hedera branding appear on the MCL39 and MCL39X cars, team kit, and McLaren Technology Centre.

It marks McLaren's return to blockchain-powered fan engagement — this time on the Hedera network.

Their web3 activations go back to 2021, and they are one of the only teams in sport that have a function internally dedicated to this sector.

2) McLaren Racing’s Track Record 📆 

Through their previous partnership with Tezos, McLaren Racing put up some great numbers.

Their "23 of 23" programme throughout the 2023 F1 season generated over 2.8 million collectible claims — the largest free-to-mint NFT collectibles series in sports. The model was straightforward: free to claim, simple onboarding, tied to real race weekends. Fans claimed one collectible per race weekend.

That approach recruited 650,000 wallets to the Tezos network in a single year.

But the most telling metric isn't the mint numbers. It's the community they built.

McLaren's Discord server grew from 10,000 to 114,000 members during this period due to 23/23 — generating the largest in-house managed sports server.

The stereotype is that F1 fans skew male, white and affluent.

Their Discord tells a different story: majority under 27, majority female, tech-savvy, more engaged, and with higher spend than any other social channel McLaren operates.

McLaren have also been for many the first ever touch point with anything blockchain related.

As Max Wolfe put it at Sports Blockchain Summit last year:

Double-clicking on engagement, the community they’ve built through this program is second to none.

Wolfe went on to say that "We [McLaren Racing] generate about the same amount of engagement out of 114,000 people as Instagram does from 16 million”, adding that their Discord server on a CPM basis “blows their other social channels out of the water”.

One-to-many communication channels for superfans are rare to see, but it feels like McLaren have cracked something here. To the extent that this super engagement is something they’ve been able to impress internally.

Wolfe said that "We're [McLaren Racing] starting to get sophisticated enough, and we're starting to get enough internal understanding where we're judging metrics that more accurately value what we're bringing to the table."

Fundamental to the success of the program and their bubbling Discord community is a framework they’ve used over four years:

Wolfe said:

The free-to-claim model reflects this.

Fans get access without financial barriers.

McLaren gets data and community engagement.

Partners get wallet acquisition and ecosystem growth.

On their success and room for growth, he said:

And that is indeed where the commercial reality steps in.

The Commercial Reality 💵 

There is no shying away from the business case here for the F1 team.

Wolfe said:

An acknowledgement that fan engagement and commercial return aren't mutually exclusive. In fact, the former enables the latter.

They are tracking merchandise spend, loyalty programme conversion, and lifetime customer value — the holy grail for many sports marketers.

The sophistication is building over time.

The Hedera partnership commercialises the program from the outset and allows McLaren to double down on the existing success whilst iterating to create something potentially even more substantial.

And that’s where the excitement could lie. McLaren have already put up great numbers from a marketing perspective. And the loyalty metrics and spend conversion sound good.

But how do you ingrain the technology further into the business?

That will be the challenge.

Blockchain rails have matured, and although there is waning engery from many over ‘Web3 loyalty’ — there are some, myself included, that think it will make a resurgence over the next 18 months.

And if anyone in sports makes a splash directionally here, you can bet it will be McLaren.

Concluding Thoughts 💬 

(1) McLaren are a beacon in this sub industry

Most sports properties are struggling to reconcile fan engagement with commercialisation. Through sponsorship, McLaren are doing that and doubling down on their existing success.

(2) The real test is what comes next

Proof-of-engagement collectibles are an excellent top-of-funnel strategy, but the next phase is where things get harder. Converting passive participants into active ones is something nobody in sports has cracked yet.

(3) Blockchain rails are mature, tokenized loyalty is inevitable

A lot of Web3 loyalty applications were too early. But now, the tokenization of payments is happening, and tech stacks are much more mature. McLaren have a much wider playground to play in. But the question is; will they?

And will they see ‘doing the same’ as a failure or a success?

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• 'PGA Tour Rise' Mobile Golf Game to Launch on Skale's Base Network in 2026 (Read more here)

• WhiteBIT and Elina Svitolina Announce Partnership (Read more here)

• MoonPay become the first-ever title partner in X Games (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Haun-backed Neynar acquires Farcaster after founders pivot to wallet app (Read more here)

• Crypto security company Ledger plots $4bn New York listing (Read more here // Paywalled)

• BitGo Debuts on NYSE With $2B Valuation (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back with Season 3! 🚨

In episode 2 we're joined by:

• John Timoney, CEO & Co-Founder @ Uptop

We discuss:

• ⚙️ Uptop's acquisition by Rain and integration with Fintech

• 🏀 Cleveland Cavaliers' tokenized loyalty program

• 🌐 Expansion to Detroit Pistons and LSU athletics programs

• ❗️ Challenges and approach to tokenized loyalty programs

• ⛓️ Using blockchain for granular fan insights and activation

• 🥇 Democratizing loyalty through on-chain primitives and network effects

• 💸 Unused loyalty points and creating redemption value

• 📊 Growth metrics and adoption rates among teams

• 📱 Differences in fan engagement between US and European sports

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) Pudgy Penguins 🐧 
2) Manchester City Partnership 🌑 
3) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

Pudgy Penguins 🐧 

Almost exactly two years ago, I wrote about a newsletter titled: what sports can learn from a Penguin NFT project.

It was a weird title, but it resonated.

Pudgy Penguins is IP that started out as an NFT project.

Yes, the type of NFT project that is mostly laughed at and made fun of because a cartoon JPEG was sold for ludicrous amounts of money.

But inside the industry and out, the concept of Non-Fungible Tokens was misunderstood.

The core concept of owning a digital ‘thing’ — be it art, ticket, CV or otherwise — will stand the test of time very well.

But during the NFT bubble, money was being made hand over fist by creators who had no incentive to do anything with their creations beyond… sell them.

For some things, like Art, that makes sense. It is customary for us to do that in the physical world. An artist creates a piece of work, and it is then sold to someone who believes that art is valuable. Or because they just like the look of it.

The issue for most NFT projects was that they had no business model beyond selling NFTs. And unlike artists, they can’t saturate their original supply of NFTs, because that would defeat the purpose of digital scarcity enshrined on the blockchain.

And Pudgy Penguins were no different.

During the hype cycle of 2020-21, Pudgy Penguins saw prices of these assets rocket — before slowly trudging down to 0.6 ETH ($1860 at the time) when crypto markets tanked. The price fall was seen as disastrous by holders.

So much so that they plotted to oust the founders of the project.

The community felt that the project was on the brink of collapse.

In April 2022, a young entrepreneur named Luca Netz offered 750ETH ($2.5m at that time) to buy the Pudgy Penguins project and IP from the founders.

He recalls his reasoning at the time, to NFT publication NFT NOW:

Since the takeover, Pudgy Penguins have once again become one of the most popular NFT projects in the market, reaching a ‘floor’ (buy-in) price of almost $20,000, peaking at $100,000 in December 2024. They have 2 million followers on Instagram, 700k+ on TikTok and 700k+ on X (Formerly Twitter). Their GIFs on GIPHY have reached over 60 billion views.

The success of their audience translated beyond the digital and into the physical.

In September 2022, Pudgy Penguins debuted a toy collection in 2000 Walmart Stores. There were 16 types of Pudgy Toys, ranging from $2.99 to $11.97. Each toy comes with a unique birth certificate that allows the user to claim unique traits for their digital ‘Forever Pudgy’ character inside Pudgy World, an online virtual world, by scanning a QR code.

Fast forward to Jan 2026 and retail sales have hit $13 million+ across more than 10,000 locations - includng Walmart, Target, Amazon, Walgreens. They're on their fourth Walmart reorder. They're projecting $20 million+ in retail sales for 2026, with over 2 million physical toys sold as of mid-2025.

The numbers are pretty remarkable.

Most NFT projects that accrued significant revenue through the sale of digital assets have focused on one market in particular: gaming.

With NFL and FIFA Rivals creators Mythical Games, they created the mobile game Pudgy Party, which saw 500,000 downloads in 2 weeks and over 1 million downloads in its first month, becoming the fastest-growing IP in Mythical’s successful portfolio.

Alongside this, Pudgy Penguins have also created an animated series and children’s books, spreading their IP further into entertainment.

Their sprawling empire, which began as a funny NFT project, is to be admired.

They have answered the complex question:

How do you generate value for your community, whilst driving revenue to your business without selling to your community — or breaking securities laws?

I, for one, am glad I am not solving that equation because it is exceptionally difficult.

Luca Netz, CEO of Pudgy Penguins, summarises it well:

NFTs gave us a way to decentralise IP.

And Pudgy Penguins are utilising it in a defining way.

They have created a way to allow their holders to monetise their digital content, without breaking securities laws, and have generated revenue themselves as a business without selling more digital assets to their existing NFT holders.

They have executed a strategy that allows their holders to monetise, whilst also being engaged in the community in novel ways, and created Web2 distribution funnels that not only strengthen their brand, but also drive real revenue through digital funnels and retail distribution partnerships.

Manchester City Partnership 🌑 

The deal with Manchester City was announced on January 15th, with products launching January 17th. It's a premium merchandise and collectibles line aimed at an 18+ audience - specifically not kids. These will be co-branded products leveraging both the Pudgy IP and Manchester City's crest.

For Manchester City, this is an easy partnership to do. They can leverage their brand and following, create a commercial structure that works for them where they see upside on revenues or even potentially a minimum guarantee.

For Pudgy Penguins, this feels like a pretty big milestone as it pertains to big, global IP, that they can leverage. The monetisation strategy that has worked so well for them ( toys, licensing, retail partnerships, mainstream brand collaborations), they are clearly doubling down.

The partnership announcement didn't mention NFTs. It led with "premium collectible and merch."

This came hot on the heels of Pudgy Penguins announcing an official Pudgy Penguins NHL collaboration for the 2026 Discover NHL Winter Classic. The collaboration includes fan events, limited merchandise, and special promotions running from December through January. They premiered the partnership at Art Week Miami with live activations alongside the NHL.

The pair of partnerships show that Pudgy Penguins are becoming a mainstream brand, built with onchain primitives, but monetised no different to traditional IP.

Concluding Thoughts 💬 

(1) NFTs were never the product

NFTs as the product for so many projects is so frustrating to look back at in retrospect. But it does follow most emerging technology cycles.

(2) Inverting the model

Pudgy’s ability to add business acumen to something that had the potential (and now reality) of becoming big, global IP. They used crypto native primitives to bootstrap community, value and cashflow — and then used tried and tested ways of monetising IP to then drive value back to their business and their holders.

(3) We are going to see a plethora of sports partnerships in 2026

2026 is going to be a big year for crypto and sports partnerships. World Cup 2026. Cryptoassets and blockchain technology are going mainstream. And I think we will see a wider variety of them, too, rather than just sponsorships.

(4) Pudgy are the exception to the rule, but more people should be thinking about IP in this manner

We are, as a planet and industry, desperate for new IP to emerge. It’s why there are so many remakes of movies, and Marvel keeps launching more movies. People love franchises, and once they fall in love with IP they want more. But the creation of original IP is waning and in desperate need of a revamp.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• From the Street: Avalanche is betting on Payments & Rewards (Read more here)

• Football[dot] Fun debuts FUN token (Read more here)

• Nexo becomes Audi Revolut F1 Team sponsor in 4-year deal (Read more here)

• Scuderia Ferrari HP announces BingX as Team Partner (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Wall Street groups hire traders to wade into prediction markets (Read more here)

• Tom Lee's Ethereum Treasury BitMine Invests $200 Million in MrBeast's Beast Industries (Read more here)

• X Bans Access to ‘InfoFi’ Crypto Projects Amid ‘AI Slop’ Backlash (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

🚨 The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back! 🚨

🎤️ Live from Sports Blockchain Summit II in London, we're joined by:

• Sunil Singhvi, Head of Partnerships @ Courtyard

We discuss:

• 🧗 The challenge of pitching Web3 services to rights holders demanding payment

• ✅ The transition from Web3 as a cash machine to proving audience revenue

• 💎 Introduction to Courtyard: physical collectibles with a digital blockchain layer

• ⛓️ How Courtyard uses blockchain to build trust and ensure item provenance

• ⚙️ Courtyard's vending machine model, buyback offer, and business mechanics explained

• 🤝 The opportunity for IP partnerships focused on discovery and fan delight

• 🎮 Courtyard as a gamified discovery platform versus influencing market prices

• 🤔 Addressing perceptions of gambling through transparency and expected value

• 🙌 User acquisition through viral social content and live experiential marketing

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) 2025 Prediction Review ⌛️ 
2) 2026 Predictions 🔮

Happy New Year 👋 

In this piece, I’ll review my 2025 predictions and then provide my 2026 ones.

This year promises to be a big one for two industries that show no signs of slowing down.

P.S. If we haven’t connected before, and you want to, reply to this newsletter and let’s chat

Let’s kick off with a review of my 2025 predictions, and to be honest… there isn’t that much to write home about. However, some of my more speculative predictions do look directionally pretty good… which means I’ll make it my aim to make them much punchier this year.

2025 Prediction Review ⌛️ 

1) Web3 Gaming Takes a Bigger Leap

The prediction: Up first — the easiest prediction of them all is that Web3 gaming will take an even bigger leap in 2025. This is cheating to some extent… we know that FIFA and Mythical Games are launching FIFA Rivals at some point in 2025.

The rating: 5/10

Why: It was an AWFUL year for Web3 gaming. But relatively speaking, sports stood strong. FIFA Rivals did launch and has been super successful, hitting 1 million downloads within 7 weeks of launch.

2) Real World Assets Onchain Get More Sporty

The Prediction: The two key areas that I see being disrupted here in 2025 in a big way are:

1. Memorabilia, which we're already seeing with the likes of courtyard.io

2. Ownership in the teams themselves

The Rating: 7/10

Why: So Courtyard had an absurdly successful year in 2025, and other companies in the memorabilia space such Collectors Crypto have done really well. On the other hand, following Watford FC’s onchain equity raise in 2024 — we haven’t seen that much in sports on that end. But, this does come within the context of onchain stocks hitting $1.2bn in volume recently, so perhaps the onchain equity financing model for sports teams will become more prevalent sooner, rather than later.

3) Regulatory Clarity Provides Sports Teams with a Path Forward in Web3

The Prediction: This is probably the most important thing that will happen in 2025. A lot of sports teams and leagues have wanted to do stuff in this space, but have been stopped in their tracks by regulatory uncertainty. I think that globally, we're going to be in a much better space in 2025 when it comes to how comfortable sports teams and leagues are in taking risks here.

The Rating: 7.5/10

Why: This was the most conservative prediction, but the reason it can’t be higher than a 7.5/10 is that we mostly saw this reflected in sponsorships rather than sports teams or brands building and rooting blockchain into their tech stacks.

4) Sports Web3 Market Consolidation

The Prediction: I think 2025 will be a big year for M&A in the sports and Web3 space. While the number of pure-play sports Web3 businesses is limited, we'll see opportunities emerge as performance gaps widen between companies.

The Rating: 6/10

Why: UpTop were acquired by Rain towards the end of the year, which probably brings me to 6/10 here, and we saw a lot of prediction market-related acquisitions. But if you took prediction markets out of the frame, this was nearly a pretty poor prediction (no pun intended).

5) A Sports Team Integrates Blockchain Directly into Its Fan Engagement App

So far, we have seen many sports teams and leagues create separate apps for Web3 fan engagement applications. This makes sense. They can silo the risk. They can silo the tech. To maximise the value of what can happen in this intersection, sports teams and leagues have to integrate directly.

The rating: 2/10

Why: I feel this was sooooo close to coming to fruition, and will happen in 2026 just in a different way — which I will get into in part 2 of this newsletter.

6) Web3 Loyalty Makes a Comeback

The Prediction: With Nike, Starbucks and many other big brands shuttering their Web3 loyalty applications and programmes, many think this space is dead. However, we have seen green shoots in late 2024 that suggest Web3 loyalty could make a big comeback in 2025, particularly in sports.

The Rating: 5/10

Why: UpTop expanded their customer base, adding the Pistons and LSU Athletics to their roster of clients. Barcelona launched an onchain loyalty program, but their vendor in Futureverse went into receivership, so nobody knows where that will go. Red Bull Racing launched a free-to-claim onchain loyalty product, which saw great numbers. But we’re yet to see something mainstream that is integrated directly into existing tech stacks. I think that could change in 2026.

7) Nike's Competitors Take Advantage of Their Web3 Withdrawal

The Prediction: Nike have seemingly left the Web3 space and are now looking to go back to their roots of wholesale distribution and brand marketing. However, I think their competitors, such as Adidas, ASICS, Puma, Reebok and others are still here to stay on the Web3 front.

The Rating: 0/10

Why: This just didn’t happen.

8) Blockchain Ticketing Finally Makes the Leap

The Prediction: While this is a longer-term play, and I'm not necessarily hanging my hat on this happening in 2025, the continued presence of funding and smart builders in this space suggests blockchain ticketing might finally make a dent on the traditional oligopolies this year.

The Rating: 2.5/10

Why: We saw sprinkles of announcements, rumours that Live Nation may be forced to dismantle their monopoly as well as the NFL looking at taking their ticketing in-house. But not enough to warrant more than a 2.5.

9) Crypto[dot]com Try to Buy a Sports Team

The Prediction: Crypto[dot]com tries to buy a sports team. With their massive sponsorship spending in Sport and the recent launch of a sports predictions market (a first for crypto exchanges), this business might be gearing up for something bigger. It might not be Crypto[dot]com specifically - we've seen Tether invest in a video platform Rumble recently, and there are other crypto companies, blockchains and exchanges flush with cash — that may take their investing beyond tech. The opportunity to take a huge loyal audience and put everything onchain - from data to ticketing to player contracts - could be compelling for a crypto business with deep pockets.

The Rating: 10/10

Why: This was my most speculative prediction, and 3 months before Tether’s 5% stake acquisition in Juventus… and eventual bid to take over the entire club. Because of how out there it was, I’m going to give myself a 10/10. Ironically, this was probably my best prediction?

2026 Predictions 🔮 

Onto my 2026 predictions…

1) FIFA launch a token before the World Cup, and Donald Trump or an affiliated company holds a big portion of the supply

There have been hints, murmurs and indications that FIFA will launch a crypto token at some point. Indeed, FIFA president Gianni Infantino was strangely present at the White House Digital Summit last year, where Donald Trump said, "It could be quite a coin. That coin could be [worth] more than FIFA."

At the end of 2025, Donald Trump was then awarded the Inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, controversial for many.

With the World Cup 2026 being hosted in North America, it feels like there is more brewing between FIFA and the crypto progressive Trump regime. I think that may end up with a FIFA token in 2026.

2) Tether acquire Juventus and settles a transfer in summer 2026 using their USDT stablecoin

Tether have already had a $1.3bn all-cash offer for Exor’s ~65% ownership stake in Juventus FC rebuffed. But money talks, and everything has a price, no matter what Exor’s positioning is publicly. Juventus have flatlined from a revenue perspective in the last 5 years, and relative to competitors such as AC Milan and Inter Milan, it doesn’t look good.

3) A Sports team or brand tokenize their loyalty program

Tokenized loyalty is going to have a renaissance. That feels obvious now that crypto-based payment rails have matured. There are also longer-term, successful proof points in the market — mainly from UpTop — who have now been acquired by Rain. And I think this year we’ll see it integrate into existing tech stacks, or migrations to new blockchain enabled ones.

4) Fanatics or an equivalent type of business attempts to acquire Sorare

Stab in the dark — but Fantatics is the sports and culture everything company that went all in on gambling and prediction markets in the previous 18 months. 2026 is going to be big for prediction markets, but at some point, user churn is going to be painful for these businesses, especially those that focus solely on sports.

Sorare have struggled to reach the heady heights of 2021 once more, and their recent numbers suggest they are looking to either raise once more or sell the business. Let’s see if that happens post World Cup, for which I’m sure they will push hard, and then into the new football season 2026/27.

5) Kalshi’s dominance in sports prediction markets drops

Short term, this is going to look like a dumb prediction, but by the end of 2026, I expect there to be so much competition in the sports prediction market space from crypto exchanges, sportsbooks and brokerages that Kalshi eventually see a drop both in 1) The % of their total volume being sports and 2) The total % of the sports market they dominate.

6) Robinhood try to buy a crypto exchange, prediction market product or onchain collectibles platform, citing sports event contracts or cultural assets as the reason

Robinhood have already gone hard at prediction markets and also onchain stocks. They want to be the everything app for everything that can be financialised. I think they will double down on prediction markets, but it can’t be long before they look at other assets that are usually illiquid. Private stocks are just the start. Collectibles, art, cars, sports teams — I think we’re going to see illiquid assets go onchain and increase liquidity. Robinhood feels like the place where this could live short-term?

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Nike quietely sold off RTFKT at the end of 2025 (Read more here)

• Bitpanda become the official trading partner of Haknenkamm Races (Read more here)

• MMA Partners with World Liberty Financial to Build Global Token Economy in Combat Sports (Read more here)

• Tennessee orders Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto[dot]com to cease sports betting contracts (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• a16z raise over $15bn (Read more here)

• X Plans ‘Smart Cashtags’ to Link Crypto and Stock Tickers to Live Prices (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

🚨 The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back! 🚨

🎤️ Live from Sports Blockchain Summit II in London, we're joined by:

• Max Wolfe, Senior Manager, Web3 & Digital Licensing @ McLaren Racing

We discuss:

• 💡 McLaren Racing's use of Web3 technologies to enhance fan experience and performance

• 🛤 Overview of McLaren's Web3 journey and early NFT projects in 2021

• 🛠 Building a unique and engaged community through Discord with diverse demographics

• 📊 Internal shift from Web3 experiment to valued business line with new metrics

• 🧠 Key learnings: break rules, keep it simple, and focus on organic growth

• 🔮 Future plans: doubling down on proof-of-engagement and seamless fan expression

• ✅ Tips for effective pitches: do your homework and bring crazy ideas

• ⚖️ Balancing McLaren team IP versus driver IP in community building

• ⛓️ Interoperability, multi-chain strategies, and measuring Web3 engagement to revenue

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

🔈️ PSA — Monday, 15th December, is our last newsletter of the year. We will be back in the new year on either the 5th or 12th January, depending on the news cycle!

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) Tether’s Acquisition Bid 📊 
2) The Strategic View 🌱 
3) Exor says no 👋 
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

The story of the year for many at the intersection of these two industries rumbles on.

The most profitable company on the planet, the stablecoin issuer Tether, want to buy Juventus Football Club, Italy’s most storied and valuable football club.

The original creators and owners of FIAT, the car brand, are now having their resolve tested for Italy’s most precious footballing asset by the folks who have put fiat currency on the blockchain.

Before I delve into what feels like the crescendo moment for this game of cat and mouse, here’s a quick primer to bring you up to speed.

For the uninitiated, Tether are the most profitable company on the planet per employee, with net profits of over $13bn in 2024.

They are behind USDT, the largest stablecoin in the cryptocurrency market, with a market capitalisation exceeding $150 billion. Stablecoins have become the first example of product-market fit in crypto, with the supply of them recently reaching ~$250billion, up from ~$140 billion year-on-year.

Source: Artemis

Their attempted acquisition of Juventus dates back to March 2025, and has continued throughout the year.

• March 2025: Tether reportedly acquired more than 5% of Juventus, with regulator Consob being notified after they crossed the 5% regulatory threshold of Juventus’ voting rights.

• The Agnelli family's holding company Exor, which controls 64% of Juventus (and also owns Ferrari), has not sold any shares to Tether, and have consistently denied any plans to sell the club.

• Tether CEO Paulo Ardoino described the move as a "strategic investment" that will help Tether become a "pioneer in merging new technologies, such as digital assets, AI, and biotech, with the well-established sports industry to drive change globally”.

• April 2025: Tether acquired additional shares in Juventus Football Club, bringing its total participation to over 10.12 % of the issued share capital, representing 6.18% of voting rights. In the same announcement, it was clarified that the initial share acquisition was worth 8.2% rather than the ~5% initially reported.

• June 2025: Tether start using the press to pressure Exor to give them a board seat. They now have a 10.7% stake in Juventus.

Tether’s Acquisition Bid 📊 

And now, Tether have officially made their move. And it was rejected immediately.

The stablecoin issuer submitted a binding, all-cash proposal to acquire Exor’s controlling stake in Juventus FC.

The offer, priced at €2.66 per share, valued the Italian giants at approximately €1.1 billion ($1.3bn). This represents a 21% premium on the closing share price of €2.19 before the announcement. Additionally, Tether pledged a further €1 billion in direct investment for club development.

However, the door was slammed shut. Exor, the holding company of the Agnelli family, rejected the bid within 24 hours. Exor CEO John Elkann’s statement was unequivocal: "Juventus, our history and our values are not for sale."

Elkann is the great-great-grandson of Fiat founder Giovanni Agnelli, showing just how steeped the Juventus brand is within the family’s lineage.

Juventus as a club posted a €199m net loss for the 2023/24 season. 2024/25 is projected to be a stronger showing with losses narrowing to ~€40-50m, but the club has not turned a net profit since 2017. Of course, this is not unusual for a football club.

Deloitte Money League

Indeed, revenues since 2020 also show that Juventus are slowing, and their controllable revenues (Matchday and Commercials) are ~ parity with 2020.

This is a stark difference to AC Milan and Internazionale, two other Italian football juggernauts, who have both seen huge growth since 2020 in controllable revenues.

Of Deloitte’s money league, only Chelsea and Barcelona have not seen growth in revenues since 2020, showing that Juventus are amongst the outliers in Europe’s elite when it comes to financial health. Tether CEO Paulo Ardoino's well-documented affection for Juventus, combined with the club's financial challenges, presents both a personal passion play and a strategic opportunity.

Compared to the backdrop of recent acquisitions in elite football:

• Atletico Madrid: Apollo Asset Management’s recent investment in Q4 2025 valued the club at $2.6bn

• Manchester United: Jim Ratcliffe’s minority investment in 2024 valued the club at around $6.5 billion 

• Chelsea: Sold to the Boehly-Clearlake consortium for $5.3bn in 2022

• AC Milan: Sold to RedBird Capital for $1.3bn in 2022

The $1.3bn number for Juventus seems reasonable in this context.

The Strategic View 🌱 

It’s simple to view this as a conquest of the heart and not one of any strategic intent. But there are several things at play here that, emotion aside, could make this a smart move for Tether.

Firstly Tether are a brand.

The USDT stablecoin is often referred to as Tether.

Consumers do not call ‘USDC’, Circle’s issued stablecoin, ‘Circle’.

So there is an incentive for Tether to generate brand awareness.

It’s advantageous for them to do so because there are constant question marks about their legitimacy. Although most of those doubts have been muted in the last 2 years, it is a company and brand that still craves legitimacy.

The historical controversy has stemmed from questions surrounding their reserves: “Is every USDT stablecoin actually backed by a dollar or dollar equivalent?”

Tether has recently adopted more transparent reporting practices. Their most recent transparency report from December 2025 reveals that the bulk of their $143+ billion in reserves are in U.S. Treasury bills.

Yet, in November 2025 - the S&P global credit ratings downgraded Tether’s rank from “constrained” to “weak”, its lowest level, reflecting “the rise in exposure to high-risk assets in (its) reserves over the past year and persistent gaps in disclosure”.

In very ‘Tether’ fashion, CEO Ardoino said they wear the “loathing with pride”.

And although it’s virtually impossible to ascertain the true health and risk of Tether, Luca Prosperi, CEO of M0 and former banker, analysed this in depth.

To summarise his excellent piece:

• Tether operates like an unregulated bank

• Their capital ratio is ~ 10.7%, below the 14-15% most major banks maintain post-2008

And in the midst of this, Tether has diversified its assets, looking to grow beyond reliance on interest-rate revenue. Indeed, their strategy looks like something you would see from the Agnelli family if they started their path to riches in the 2020s.

Mining companies, Agricultural companies, gold, video streaming platform Rumble, and humanoid robotics — Tether is flexing its financial muscle. You could argue that they are simply doing what Exor did 100 years ago, when they used profits from Fabbrica Italiana di Automobili Torino (Fiat), to diversify their own assets.

Exor say no 👋 

On the face of it, the Agnelli family’s answer is straightforward and steadfast.

They will not sell.

To take from two excellent pieces 1) James Horncastle at the Athletic and 2) Carlo De Marchis from LinkedIn 

The club has been in the family’s stewardship for 100 years and in Italy, the custodianship of a football club is not just seen as an asset.

As per De Marchis:

“Juventus has been under Agnelli ownership since 1923. The club is not only a sports enterprise; it is a social symbol woven into the identity of a family, a company, and a city. In countries where club ownership shifts between oligarchs, sovereign funds or private-equity vehicles, it may seem unusual to decline a cash-heavy premium offer. In Italy, it makes sense. The club is part of the family brand. Selling it would be closer to selling a surname.”

And Honrcastle backs up this point saying that “No club in world football are more defined by, or associated with, their owners than Juventus. The Agnellis have been their benefactors for more than a century.”

And yet, this doesn’t feel like it will go away soon.

In previous analysis of this story, I've provided context—some explicit, some requiring interpretation. When you place that alongside recent developments, it makes for interesting reading:

1. Exor, the Agnelli Family HoldCo, recently sold $3.2 billion worth of their Ferrari stake for M&A purposes, but remains the automotive brand’s largest shareholder and controls the largest voting block. The timing is fascinating. It’s touted as M&A money, so it will be interesting to see what it is spent on. But if Ferrari isn’t off the table, why is Juventus not?

2. Exor have stripped other assets. Subsidiaries of their car business, such as Magneti Marelli (auto parts company) and Iveco (bus and truck maker) were sold lately.

3. Three years ago, Exor delisted from the Milan stock exchange and relocated to the Dutch city of Amsterdam. As per Horncastle, this “created an impression of the Agnelli family withdrawing from Italy”

4. Just last week, Exor-owned Gedi, a media business which owns assets such as ‘La Repubblica, is being stripped and sold to Greek group Antenna

5. Tether are extremely savvy operators. They already have a board seat at Juventus. They will continue to push, and the dam may well break for Exor. Especially if they see weakness (selling a stake in Ferrari as an example).

Against the backdrop of:

1. Juventus’ most unsuccessful period on the pitch since the 70s

2. Exor financially supporting the club from their own pockets to cover losses since Covid

3. Tether’s unlimited war chest and emotional attachment to the club

This won’t go away any time soon.

Concluding Thoughts 💬 

1) No Surprises

In my 2025 predictions, my most speculative prediction, but one that I had a hunch on, was Crypto[dot]com buying a sports team.

This was on the back of Tether buying a $750m stake in Rumble. It wasn’t Crypto[dot]com but Tether that made the first move here. I predicted the crypto exchange because of their near-obsessive sports sponsorship strategy.

2) This is the year crypto companies stop being ‘just’ crypto companies.

Some of these businesses are just too big, too profitable and have too much opportunity not to spread their wings.

Tether made $13b in profit (!!!!) in 2024.

Sovereign and huge private equity is the only wealth that can beat that.

3) Interest rates might not be this high forever

Tether’s main moneymaker is interest rates being high, and arbitrating that against USDT issuance.

If interest rates go down, they will make less money.

Diversifying from a point of strength (billions in yearly profit) is smart.

4) Is this strategic or just PR?

Tether talk about the potential to utilise crypto to reach a global, untapped and undermonetised audience that Juventus have.

Using stablecoins to do this isn’t far away.

Especially if the global south is increasingly adopting this digital dollar.

If Juventus were able to add stablecoins as a payment method to their plumbing over the next couple of seasons, I wonder how much that would unlock for them? My guess is ‘not much right now’. So strategically, for Juventus FC, I’m unsure if this is huge in the short term, even if Tether had majority ownership.

This is, however, smart from an optics perspective as they diversify their investment strategy outside of crypto. It’s also ~ the same price to buy 10% of Juventus as it is to be Manchester City’s front of jersey sponsor for 3-4 seasons.

If you’re flush with cash and don’t need to pay something over 3-4 years, what has a better impact?

You could view this as an incredibly smart sponsorship deal without any of the marketing collateral, even if they don’t end up getting majority ownership.

5) Will Exor End up Selling?

If you had asked me in early 2025, I would have placed a low probability on this transaction happening.

But every piece of evidence since has pointed to the probability of that increasing.

Exor are clearly in a position of restructuring their assets. And if it were not for their emotional and familial ties to the football club, there is no doubt this would have been on the table a long time ago.

Every story has an ending, however. And football ownership has changed dramatically over the last 15 years, and Juventus are now an outlier. Add that to their lack of commercial growth in the last 5 years, and it points to requiring a change in strategy and increased investment. Do Exor have the energy, or capital, to go again here? Or is a sale the easier way out?

Many football fans will say “not to a crypto company” — but stewardship being by Turin-based businessmen rather than a ruthless american private equity firm is surely the better outcome?

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

🔈️ PSA — Monday, 15th December, is our last newsletter of the year. We will be back in the new year on either the 5th or 12th January, depending on the news cycle!

Ps. I’m under the weather, so if this edition is not good, then please keep that in your thoughts 😄 

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) Fanatics Markets Launches 📊 
a) 10 State Launch
b) First to Market
c) Prediction Market Volumes Exploding (still)
2) Analysis 🧠 
a) The race for the U.S.
3) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

Fanatics Markets Launches 📊 

Fanatics have launched a standalone prediction market app in partnership with Crypto[dot]com, becoming the first major sportsbook operator to enter the rapidly expanding prediction markets space.

The app launched in 10 US states initially with plans to go further, and supplements the 22 states where Fanatics Sportsbook is live, after launching that product in 2023.

The launch comes as prediction markets have captured significant mindshare across both crypto and iGaming industries throughout 2025, with weekly trading volumes now touching billions of dollars.

Source: Artemis Analytics

Sports have emerged as the dominant category, with Kalshi posting weekly notional trading volumes exceeding $1 billion in sports alone in late October, which has seen exponenetial growth since April 2025.

Source: Dune, Kalshi

Fanatics have beaten both FanDuel and DraftKings to the punch in terms of launching a prediction market, and have even beaten Polymarket’s re-entry into the U.S.

Led by Matt King, former CEO of FanDuel who now oversees betting and gaming for Fanatics, the new platform offers trading on live games, major league matchups, economic indicators, and elections in Phase One. Phase Two, launching early next year, will expand into crypto, stocks/IPOs, climate, pop culture, tech/AI, movies, and music.

In an interview with Fast Company, he said:

"Prediction markets are one of the top things that fans want to do these days. People want to be able to express their opinions on not just sports, but entertainment, culture, and everything under the sun."

The partnership structure sees Fanatics design the user experience whilst Crypto[dot]com's CFTC-registered derivatives exchange provides the infrastructure that powers the underlying market and pricing.

Fanatics acquired Paragon Global Markets LLC in July 2025 in the run-up to this launch. Paragon is federally registered as an introducing broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

These two, in tandem, gave Fanatics the grounding to build Fanatics Market.

Crucially, the launch gives Fanatics a foothold in huge markets within the United States.

As per Dustin Gouker from the Event Horizon Newsletter:

“The most strategically significant aspect of the launch is access to Florida, a massive market that has legal sports betting but only as a monopoly via Hard Rock Bet. Because of the Seminole Tribe's compact with the state, other operators cannot serve Florida through traditional sportsbooks. Prediction markets, classified as derivatives rather than gambling, offer a potential workaround to this monopoly—though it remains to be seen whether Hard Rock and the Seminole Tribe will challenge this interpretation."

There also seems intent to unify the experience across all of the company’s digital products. Fanatics plans to integrate Fanatics Markets with their Fanatics ONE rewards programme in the coming months. Users will earn rewards points through trading activity and unlock exclusive benefits, including merchandise drops and tickets to Fanatics Fest, the company's annual New York City event, which has become something of the Comic-Con of sports.

Analysis 🧠

Fanatics' entry into prediction markets follows an established pattern for the organisation: move quickly into emerging spaces.

The company were an early investor in Candy Digital during the NFT boom, only to divest 18 months afterwards when CEO Michael Rubin concluded that "NFTs are not a business." That capital and attention quickly redirected towards gambling, with their sportsbook launching in late 2023. This redirection was noted by Rubin when they decided to divest from Candy Digital, who have since gone on to be acquired by the recently shuttered Futureverse.

Rubin saw the tea leaves and read them correctly, but I doubt he would have seen just how quickly prediction markets have disrupted the iGaming market in the United States.

They are, however, the first movers here — which is still pretty impressive.

Fanatics Sportsbook generated $300 million in revenue in 2024, but their market share remains in the single digits—approximately 5%—whilst FanDuel and DraftKings together control roughly 80% of the US sports betting market. Prediction markets offer Fanatics an opportunity to establish market position in a category where dominant players have not yet cemented their advantages.

However, King is acutely aware of the risks that come with rapid market expansion and heavy capital deployment. Speaking with Sportico, he explained Fanatics' approach:

"Anytime there's a market that is this big that opens up, there's going to be lots of capital that flows into it, and wherever there's lots of capital, there will be a reasonably high level of stupidity that occurs. Frankly, we're just preparing for the stupid. The benefit we have is we're a private business that's focused on how we win over a 10-year period, not our next fundraise. We'll strike the right balance of still being aggressive and making the most of being early in the market, but we're going to avoid stupid. It's a lot easier to do that once you've seen a rodeo."

Concluding Thoughts 💭

(1) The Competition Heats Up

The competition is heating up. We're seeing this from players across finance, gambling, and crypto take prediction markets seriously. We recently saw that Robinhood are looking at going direct to consumer and protecting the current moat they have in prediction markets. They have acquired an exchange, which some people are speculating reduces the need for their partnership with Kalshi. At the same time, Kalshi have partnered with huge media conglomerates such as CNBC, and Polymarket are relaunching in the United States. All the while, FanDuel, DraftKings, CME, and many others are waiting in the wings to launch prediction market products. It's very frothy, and the competition is fierce. Owning that direct consumer relationship is going to be more important than ever as the competition becomes stiffer. I think Fanatics have actually got a decent chance at growing a pretty substantial amount of volume via this product. If you think that only $300 million of their total several billion in revenue in 2024 came from iGaming, then you think this is their biggest growth market, and prediction markets could be bucketed in. Of course, they haven't used the word ‘gambling’ in any of the press releases, but this is the market they’re going after with this launch.

(2) The Florida Wedge

Whilst there is a lot of ‘innovation ‘ in this market and this design space, which is pretty fascinating to me, I do think a lot of the reasoning here is regulatory arbitrage. Florida is a state that has almost as many people as England, and that is a huge market when it comes to gambling.

(3) B2B2C

The most interesting part of this is the battle that Crypto[dot]com, Kalshi, and Polymarket are currently fighting to become the pipes for these markets. That B2B2C market is also seeing heavy competition. Crypto[dot]com are probably in the lead, with Fanatics and Underdog being huge wins for them. It will be very interesting to see how ingrained they can become in these partnerships and products to avoid the Kalshi and Robinhood example from happening again.

(4) Avoiding Stupid

The "avoiding stupid" quote is super interesting by Matt King, and I tend to agree with him in the sense that there is just so much froth in this market right now. I really feel that the companies that act quickly, safely, and avoid doing dumb things whilst trying to own the consumer wedge will do the best here. There are many launching products here and just expecting volume will appear. This will not be the case.

(5) Sports Gambling in Everything but Name

Right now, this looks and feels like sports gambling. If it quacks like a duck, swims like a duck, and looks like a duck, it is most probably a duck. The volumes reflect that, and so do the companies that are getting into this space: FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics. What are these businesses? They are either sportsbooks or businesses that have a growing sportsbook business. So it's very difficult for anyone to sit there and say this isn't sports gambling right now.

(6) But the Potential is Much Bigger Here

Of course, I've already outlined why I think the potential for this market is much bigger. The information that you can get from these markets, with the accuracy that they portray, is so valuable. Nobody should forget that these markets have greater accuracy than JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs analysts; that is the reshaping and commoditisation of accurate data that impacts economic markets. Do not underestimate how big that is. Sports is the product market fit moment, but this is much bigger than just sports betting.

(7) Do Fanatics Care about That?

Fanatics are a sports fan business: memorabilia, digital products, sportsbook, and now prediction markets—all cater to sports fans. I have a hard time believing that they feel the same way that I do and think this is bigger than sports gambling. I think they are simply trying to corner as much of this market as possible before Polymarket, FanDuel and DraftKings launch.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Connecticut Orders Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com to Cease Sports Betting (Read more here)

• Pudgy Penguins Scores NHL Collaboration for 2026 Winter Classic (Read more here)

• Crypto Payment Processor Apirone Sponsored Yacht Team in Spain (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Pudgy Penguins figurines to launch from schleich in 2026 (Read more here)

• Coinbase Reopens India Access, Sets 2026 Target for Cash-to-Crypto Purchases (Read more here)

• UK Passes Bill Formally Recognizing Crypto as a New Category of Property (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

🔈️ PSA — no Sporting Crypto newsletter next week! I’m on PTO / OOO, but I look forward to writing my 2025 review and 2026 predictions when I’m back to finish up a great year.

FC Barcelona Sign 'Unknown' ZKP Blockchain

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) FC Barcelona Sign ZKP ⛓️ 
a) Who are ZKP?
b) Why did Barcelona choose them?
c) How did this happen?
3) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

FC Barcelona Sign ZKP ⛓️ 

Spanish football giants FC Barcelona have announced Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP), a privacy-first blockchain technology that operates with decentralised AI, will become, through to 2028, FC Barcelona’s Official Cryptographic Protocol Partner.

(And no, I don’t think this was a marketing effort to squish as many buzzwords into one sentence as possible, but it definitely sounds that way)

As per the announcement, the agreement includes ZKP’s use of digital advertising assets across the club’s different communication channels, as well as offering Barça experiences to its fans.

In the press release by Barcelona they state that:

ZKP's goal is to create a new standard for data and AI in the global sports context. In this new model, digital experiences will be personalised, with privacy as the top priority. AI systems will analyse athletes’ data securely, without disclosing it or using it inappropriately. Transparency and accountability will underpin all tools within the realm of sports technology.

I’ll repeat this part: “Transparency and accountability will underpin all tools within the realm of sport technology”

The irony?

Nobody knows who ZKP are.

They are registered in Samoa.

Their socials were created 3 weeks before the announcement with FC Barcelona.

Had 33 Twitter followers on X (formerly Twitter) and was following just three accounts: FC Barcelona, Bitcoin and… Andrew Tate.

We’ll get to that last bit shortly.

On ZKP’s website, whilst simultaneously promising privacy and transparency, in the ‘team’ section, they do not name their team but instead cite ‘The Hidden Architects’ who ‘build without names’.

Source: ZKP.com

Anonymity and pseudo-anonymity are commonplace in crypto. But having met and known dozens of people in both camps, many are some of the most talented developers and creators in the space.

Something (the prompted-in-2-hours nature of their website) tells me this is not the case for ZKP’s founders.

Indeed, Yahoo Finance have already outlined concerns about the blockchain, which is yet to launch, may have an affiliation to Andrew Tate.

Whilst not validated, the comments in their announcement on X may point to it being the case.

They are not the first sports team to do a deal with ZKP.

In the same month, the Brisbane Dolphins, a professional rugby team in Australia, also chose ZKP as their blockchain partner.

This has, of course, sparked fury, dismay and confusion among many of Barcelon’s supporters and associates.

Indeed, one of these is Antoni Martin, co-founder of Ethereum Layer 2 Blockchain Polygon and big FC Barcelona fan (and Sporting Crypto reader, so shout out to Antoni) — summed it up well.

Source: X

It’s a partnership that feels like we have teleported back to 2020.

Concluding thoughts 💭 

(1) FC Barcelona are desperate for money

FC Barcelona have been financially on the edge since 2021.

But even considering this, I can’t imagine ZKP have large amounts of capital ready to spend on a partnership like this.

(2) Where did ZKP get the money?

ZKP are pre-token launch, and it’s unknown where they have found the funds to pay for an expensive partnership like this.

A partnership with FC Barcelona is not cheap. Likely 8 figures over a 2.5 year period (through to 2028). So, who has funded them, knowing they are spending a lot of their capital on a partnership like this?

(3) I thought this era was over

I somewhat understand the lack of due diligence when there is a major partner that has multiple sports partnerships. For example, not many predicted FTX’s spectacular collapse. The exchange boasted a robust cap table, huge volumes and dozens of public-facing partnerships. One could be forgiven for assuming the legitimacy of the organisation.

But this partnership with ZKP is… bad even for 2021’s standards.

(4) This might be connected to Futureverse’s recent shutdown

Barcelona had a partnership with Futureverse, who recently went into sudden receivership. Perhaps this was plugging a hole last minute, and it was the only thing they could find?

(5) In the same week, Ethereum announced something awesome in Zero Knowledge Proofs

In the same week, the Zksync team, in the Ethereum ecosystem, made a big breakthrough. ZKP, using this technology as a shell for what is clearly an unserious organisation, is sad to see.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Coinbase to Launch Prediction Market Powered by Kalshi (Read more here)

• Kalshi’s valuation jumps to $11B after raising massive $1B round (Read more here)

• SCOR Launches“Arnie’s Birdies” Web3 Golf Mini-Game Featuring Arnold Palmer (Read more here)

• Sorare announce increase in revenue, trading and ownership — but reduce headcount (Read more here)

• Kalshi taps StockX to power its first-ever product event contracts (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Pro-Crypto CFTC Chair Nominee Won’t Commit to More Agency Resources or Dem Commissioners (Read more here)

• Citing financial unsustainability, DappRadar is shutting down (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

The Sporting Crypto Podcast is back with Season 3! 🚨

In episode 1 we're joined by:

• Ridhima Kahn, VP @ Dapper Labs

We discuss:

• 🌋 Blockchain's potential to disrupt the financial system

• ♟️ Building products with a 10-year long-term strategy

• 🛣 New Top Shot roadmap and viral shock drops

• 📈 High demand for rookie collectibles and athlete partnerships

• 🌐 Top Shot as a social network for NBA fans

• 🎊 Creating digital and physical fan experiences

• 🤝 Partnerships with Ticketmaster and decentralized storage importance

• 🎓 Educating IP partners on blockchain and digital ownership

• 🔎 Regulatory clarity and increased brand interest in blockchain

🎙️ Listen on any podcast player

📹️ Watch on YouTube

Supported by Hedera Foundation

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice.These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Blockchain & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

🌴 I’ll be in Miami this week, so if you'd like to meet, please email me back at this address. 🙂 

-

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) Rain Acquire Uptop 💳️ 
a) Rain’s Business Model
b) Uptop’s Business Model
2) Uptop’s Success 📱 
a) Cavs Rewards
3) Analysis 🧠 
a) Deepening Virtual Integration
2) Affinity as a Business Model
4) Concluding Thoughts 💭 

Rain Acquire Uptop 🌐 

Rain, a business that issues Visa debit and credit cards using stablecoin payments, has acquired Uptop, an onchain rewards platform who are partnered with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons and LSU Athletics.

The move comes after Rain raised a $56m Series B funding round in August led by Sapphire Ventures, with participation from Samsung, Galaxy Ventures, DragonFly and others. The firm also raised $24.5m in March 2025.

Rain’s business works like this:

1. They issue you a card that has a stablecoin balance

2. That card is connecting to Visa

3. Whenever the card is swiped or used, Rain checks a user’s stablecoin balance

4. They settle with fiat on the backend whenever you pay

In short, they let apps and companies issue stablecoin spend credit and debit cards, managing the FX, treasury, settlement and upfront KYC for their clients.

Rain’s transaction volumes increased 10x between January 2025 and August 2025, when they announced their Series B raise.

Uptop are an enterprise loyalty business that have found product market fit in the sports industry.

On the acquisition, Farooq Malik, CEO and Co-Founder of Rain said:

"We're building end-to-end, stablecoin-native infrastructure so our clients don't have to stitch it together. By integrating rewards, Rain continues to lead the stablecoin industry as a comprehensive platform that lets partners go live and scale fast, all while keeping the consumer experience simple. With Rain and Uptop, any partner will be able to offer branded cards with built-in rewards, or launch a Starbucks-style wallet and rewards program that drives loyalty."

John Timoney, Co-Founder and CEO of Uptop said:

"We built Uptop so linking a card is all it takes for people to feel closer to the brands and teams they love. As part of Rain, we can bring that simplicity to more cardholders globally, with onchain infrastructure that's invisible to the user."

[Pssst. — Uptop CEO John Timoney was on the Sporting Crypto Podcast a month ago!]

So why has a stablecoin card business acquired Uptop?

We’ll get into that after dissecting their offering.

Success of the Cleveland Cavs Rewards Program 📱 

Uptop’s in-market example is the successful ‘Cavs Rewards’ program.

It is a free-to-join program where fans can earn ‘Cavs points’.

These points can be earned by connecting a debit or credit card of your choice and using that connected card in the following ways:

• In-Store Purchases: Fans can shop at any participating partner location.

• Online Purchases: Fans can shop online at partner websites.

• Select In-Venue Purchases: Purchases made at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cavaliers Home Arena). This includes concessions and bars in the arena and Centre Court, the Cavaliers team shop. 

• Specific Products: Fans can earn points by purchasing eligible consumer packaged goods.

Fans can then redeem these points for rewards such as game day tickets, exclusive VIP experiences, team merchandise, memorabilia and digital badges.

The sign-up flow is simple and standalone from the rest of the Cavs ecosystem (for now).

After signing up with an email and creating a ‘Cavs ID’, the onboarding flow for Cavs Rewards is very straightforward and is seamless on a mobile browser.

Onboarding for Cavs Rewards

1. After clicking ‘Get Started’ users are walked through what they need to do to accrue points.

2. Fans are told they need to connect a card to earn points on purchases at Cavs Rewards locations, and they can also earn additional points by scanning receipts showing proof of purchase of eligible products such as Coca-Cola, Michelob Ultra, and more. 

3. Fans are then shown how business owners in the local area can connect with the Cavs Rewards program.

4. Finally, it is outlined how those points can be redeemed and what the rewards could be.

After the onboarding process, users are then prompted to connect a debit or credit card.

This is done easily through the fintech company Plaid, and after linking a card, fans are directed to the home screen.

From there, fans can click on ‘Add Points’ (1), ‘Earn Points’ (2), ‘Rewards’ (3) or (4) ‘Join as a Business’.

• (1) Add Points: Allows fans to purchase points with fiat currency.

• (2) Earn Points: Shows fans the different ways in which they can earn points, such as referrals, purchases and challenges.

• (3) Rewards: Showcases the types of rewards fans can redeem.

• (4) Join as a Business: Rerouted to a landing page from Uptop with a form to be filled out by businesses.

It’s very straightforward and has led to some fantastic results for Uptop and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Here’s the data since their launch:

• 21,000+ members

• $8.5m spent at partners

• > $1m in incremental spend

• 21% sponsor spend lift

• 1600 rewards redeemed

• 4.2m enrolled transactions

• 51% boost in team shop sales from enrolled members

On the Sporting Crypto’s podcast, Timoney said:

"We're seeing double digit, sometimes north of 20% increases in fealty to the brand that is an earning brand. If you're earning points towards your favourite team and they're on either side of the street, which one are you going to go to?"

He went on to say the crux of their strategy is to “make the pie of value bigger for reaching your fans in an owned way", adding that "The Cavs are excited about it. They expect it to be a seven-figure revenue channel."

Not only has this been a commercial success, but a data and marketing one as well.

The Cavaliers' consented user base has grown by 50% through the programme, expanding from approximately 40,000 to 60,000 fans available for direct marketing communications.

Indeed, Timoney told me that "when they [Uptop] shared the metrics of the Cavs program with LSU, it immediately clicked for them that a bunch of the brands that they're already partnered with would have a strong appetite"

Success begets success and show not tell is the way to sell sports.

Analysis 🧠 

Blockchain-enabled loyalty has been a highly contested market, especially in sports.

Two problems have persisted, however:

1. Sports team technology stacks are far behind

2. The onchain payments stack was not mature enough, and loyalty programs make money because of transactions.

But we might be entering a period where those two things are being solved for, which creates a very interesting market for the future of onchain loyalty in sports.

There are three parts of this market:

1. Onchain loyalty programs with linked cards (Uptop)

2. Cards that have loyalty programs themselves, and partner with brands to offer promotions

3. Co-branded cards

The reason why loyalty programs are difficult is that the financial ledgering in the background is much too hard for most sports CFOs. It’s not an insult to them, it’s just the truth.

I spoke to someone last week who built one of the largest loyalty programs on the planet — and she told me that the size of the team that created the models for credit lines was extensive, and there was no way they could have done it themselves.

So you can forget about a team or maybe even a league doing something like this.

So what is the solution?

Uptop obfuscate the payments verticalization by using Plaid, an open banking platform.

It reads my transactions and says, “Yes, you spent 5 times at [insert brand], using your Cavs Rewards connected card”, and the rewards program issues me points. The Cavs have provable spend increase for their partners and sponsors who are already spending a lot of money with them, and the Cavs have also driven direct attributable revenue as a result of the program.

It sounds awesome.

But there are a few missing pieces for both the team and Uptop:

1. The card that is connected is still taking a big piece of the transaction

2. If that card is disconnected, there is no payment mechanism for Uptop

3. Uptop have a less defensible proposition if the payments stack deteriorates or increases in cost

4. The team’s sponsors may have partnerships and exclusivity deals with other payment companies that may interfere with this stack

So Rain acquiring Uptop coming together makes sense for the following reasons:

1. Creating a co-branded card for a team and incentivising the ownership and use of them creates a more defensible verticalised approach for both Uptop and Rain.

2. Uptop is less reliant on open banking feeds and can utilise Rain’s financial backend.

3. Rain can integrate directly with brands that don’t think they need a card or a loyalty program, or don’t yet have one. It broadens their sales funnel, and creates more embedded solutions when they do sell, giving them lower churn, longer deals and increased margins.

4. Rain has a more defensible verticalised approach, as the rest of the market begins to catch up on stablecoin settlement, and stablecoin cards become a highly contested market

It’s crucial to also put this into the context of the broader sports industry.

This might seem complex and read such that every team or league needs to own more of their payments stack, but for many, diversifying revenue is becoming a must.

The sports landscape is shifting drastically and requires a business model rethink.

And payments and loyalty are a big piece of that.

If you think about how important stablecoins are becoming to the payments landscape, and how sports teams are trying to grow their global audiences and increase merchandising and digital revenues, it is no surprise that Rain sees this industry as a strong opportunity.

Concluding thoughts 💭 

(1) Many don’t believe in loyalty programs in sports

A lot of the people I know in the sports industry think that loyalty doesn’t work in this industry.

Which I believe is absolutely untrue. It’s just that the models and propositions we’ve seen have been poor, and CCOs at sports teams think this is something they can ‘sell’ to a sponsor.

(2) Partly because sports industry is scared of canabilization

Part of the fear is that you’re discounting or giving away what you already sell.

That’s an issue for CCOs that is hard to explain to them.

There is an element of “trust me, you’ll net out better here” — but more ‘show not tell’ examples like Cavs Rewards need to emerge.

(3) Most Chief Commercial Officers are still focused on the MVP

And many are trying to sell this idea to people who are thinking about what tickets are going to cost and how they ensure a full house every week.

That is still the most important part of a team’s owned bottom line.

(4) Broadcast is the golden goose

Broadcast is the main moneymaker for most big franchises in sports, but for how long?

(5) But we’ve seen the canary in the coalmine

What we’ve seen in Ligue 1 in France is how quickly the landscape can shift for broadcast, and how hurt some of the biggest teams in the country are as a byproduct.

Many teams across the world in every sport will be resolute in thinking “that will never be us” — but why?

At some point, the bubble has to burst (as shown by Ligue 1) or the growth has to consolidate.

What’s next for the revenue lines for sports teams is fascinating.

(6) Teams need to find a way to make more money

Most executives in sport will tell you sponsorship, digital, direct to fan, and merchandising are the worlds in which they will make more money in the future, compared to revenues from broadcast.

But how do you do that when you have no loyalty program, low tech capabilities and a limited payments stack?

(7) And they are years behind technologically

At the core is technology.

Sports teams are so far behind, for the most part.

So, partnering their way into this decade from a technology perspective is the way to go.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Philadelphia 76ers Announce ‘Heart & Hustle Collection,’ Presented By Crypto[dot]com (Read more here)

• Zero-Knowledge Proof (ZKP), Become the new Official Blockchain Technology Partner of FC Barcelona (Read more here)

• Polymarket becomes the exclusive prediction market partner of UFC (Read more here)

• Team Heretics partner with Theta Network (Read more here)

• FanDuel and CME Group Join Forces to Launch Prediction Markets App in December (Read more here)

• Fanatics explores launch of prediction market with Crypto[dot]com (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Cash App Launch Stablecoin Payments (Read more here)

• Kraken boss hits out at UK crypto rules (Read more here)

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Web3 & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

We’ve just launched our biggest report of the year.

Predicted: The State of Prediction Markets 2025

You can download the full thing here:

In this FREE report you will find:

1. Funding metrics for 2025 🤑 

2. Onchain users numbers ⛓️ 

3. Weekly volume growth in 2025 📈 

4. Market maps 🌐 

5. Regulation landscape 🗺️ 

6. Why Prediction Markets have hit the mainstream 📺️ 

7. Why accuracy is so important 🎯 

8. Market landscape 💹 

9. Market competition analysis 📊 

10. Volumes with and without sports 🏀 

11. Major acquisitions and partnerships 🤝 

12. Derivative and emerging platforms 👨‍🚀 

13. The TAM for prediction markets 📶 

Download here!

Thanks for reading the latest edition of the Sporting Crypto newsletter!

If you enjoyed this, please tell your friends who might be interested and share it on socials.

Disclaimers

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author’s thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used in any public or private domain without the express permission of the author.

The contents of this newsletter should not be used for any commercial activity, for example - research report, consultancy activity, or paywalled article without the express permission of the author.

Please note, the services and products advertised by our sponsors (by use of terminology such as but not limited to; supported by, sponsored by or brought to you by) in this newsletter carry inherent risks and should not be regarded as completely safe or risk-free. Third-party entities provide these services and products, and we do not control, endorse, or guarantee the accuracy, efficacy, or safety of their offerings.

It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you buy cryptoassets (including NFTs) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with cryptoassets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your cryptoassets could drop to zero), complexity, lack of regulation and lack of protection. Most service providers operating in the cryptoasset industry do not currently operate in a regulated industry. Therefore, please be aware that when you buy cryptoassets, you are not protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm.

Join 5000+ Leaders in Web3 & Sports from brands like FIFA, NBA, Premier League, NHL, reading Sporting Crypto every week 👇️ 

Thanks so much to everyone who attended Sports Blockchain Summit London last week! It was a fantastic turnout, and we’re excited to do it again soon.

Next stop for me is Miami, where I’m hosting a Sporting Crypto Dinner on the November 19th. If you’re keen on joining, please do reply to this email 🙂 

Why Everyone is Wrong About Prediction Markets

Discussed in this edition of Sporting Crypto:

1) Prediction Markets & The Players📊 
2) Sports Dominance 🏀 
3) Why Everyone is Wrong 😅 
a) This is More than Sports
b) The Accuracy is Valuable
c) The TAM is huge

Prediction Markets 📊 

It’s been the year of prediction markets.

A new product that has seen so much debate and little nuanced analysis in terms of what is actually happening here.

There seem to be many people at the ‘This is the Future of Financial Markets’ spectrum, and many at the ‘This is Democratizing Gambling Addiction’ spectrum.

The thing is, everyone is right and wrong, simultaneously.

I’ll get into why soon, but firstly, the adage of ‘History doesn’t repeat but often rhymes’ is true of prediction markets.

As Simon Taylor in Fintech Brainfood puts it: Corollary: 19th-century America was both fascinated and appalled by futures contract trading, with many considering it tantamount to gambling. Yet today, it is widely considered to be a cornerstone of our global trade. Prediction, too, is off to a controversial start.

This began with the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, which saw prediction markets become mainstream. Polymarket, for example, was regularly cited in mainstream publications and proved more accurate than polling and the media. To boot, volumes for this election cycle exploded.

Source: Artemis Analytics

And as the graph shows, the following months saw a lull in activity. Many asked, “What’s next?”

The last 3 months, or indeed the last 6 months, have answered that.

Sports Dominance 🏀 

The next ‘product market fit’ moment for prediction markets has been sports, and has actually overtaken politics dramatically in terms of volume.

Super Bowl 2025 was the first indicator of what was to come, with billions of dollars in trade volume on Polymarket for the event in February.

March Madness then came in… of course, March 2025, which then exploded volumes on Kalshi.

August and October 2025 then saw the European Football and American Football seasons kick off, respectively, compounding momentum for sports wagers on prediction markets.

In fact, 80% of Kalshi’s volumes since March 2025 can be attributed to sports.

Which is pretty crazy.

Source: Artemis Analytics

This has led to the likes of Robinhood, for example, who use Kalshi as the backend driver of their embedded prediction market product, have seen $500m-$600m in annualized revenue since they launched in Q1 2025, as per their latest earnings call.

Speaking of which, DraftKings, one of the dominant sportsbooks in the U.S., acquired Railbird Exchange for $250m, a federally licensed prediction markets platform.

FanDue, the other dominant betting platform in the U.S., have partnered with none other than CME to launch prediction markets.

And ICE, yes, the Intercontinental Exchange that owns the NYSE, took a $2bn stake in Polymarket earlier this year.

So whilst sports is making the headlines right now, the story of prediction markets is so much bigger.

Why Everyone is Wrong 😅 

Firstly, let’s discuss the elephant in the room.

Prediction Markets have found product-market fit outside of politics, and it’s in sports.

This has prompted the question: Is this gambling?

The answer is yes, and no, but really, this is a U.S.-centric problem.

The reason for that is the U.S. regulates sports gambling and lotteries on a state-by-state basis, and prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC, because they are ‘event swaps’. They are peer-to-peer, and you need someone on the other side of your wager.

At the end of the day, whether a centralised sportsbook or peer-to-peer exchange, a user is getting a payout based on wagering on the outcome of an event. Do the mechanics of how that outcome is paid out matter?

That’s a question for the CFTC and state-based regulators.

And whether there needs to be a new sub-category, or whatever the argument is, the sports wagering piece is muddying the water.

Because prediction markets are much bigger than just sports events.

Sports are a red herring here, or the canary in the coalmine, and I’ll explain why.

And it all centres around accuracy.

Polymarket is deadly accurate.

As per this tweet, it is 95.2% accurate right now, with media ever being as accurate.

And while this may not seem like a huge deal from the outset, it most definitely is, and shows the TAM for prediction markets to be absolutely huge.

As per Simon Taylor again:

In the post-truth, AI-generated slop era, truth-seeking markets tell us things the AI can’t. And over time, that will come to define the next era of finance and society.

And that is the first critical piece.

In an era where AI-generated media is prevalent, we’re struggling to contain the ever-growing trend of ‘fake news’ being amplified by social media. So accuracy, and ‘truth’ is important in a world that is currently vulnerable to this.

Extrapolate this to financial markets; right now, analysts are predicting earnings calls.

In a future where anyone can contribute to the probability of earnings calls being within a specific range, that propels economic activity.

If Bloomberg, Morningstar and others have built incredible research products giving insights to their paying customers.

They take their customers on a journey from A-Z with insights to help them find the answer or probability of something that will impact their business.

With prediction markets, we now have a mechanism to get to ‘Z’, aka the probability of the event that will impact your business, which is incredibly valuable. This isn’t a like-for-like replacement for research firms, of course, but I think this will be disruptive.

And market research might be next.

Myriad Markets just launched ‘Perpetual Sentiment Markets’.

These are markets that ‘never resolve’ — and are a ‘new form of information infrastructure’. There is huge value in polling consumer sentiment, and this could be a digital form of that.

Of course, it’s early, but going ‘direct-to-consumer’ here can create a way to commoditize human opinion.

With it being early, we of course have teething issues - that have got some people more excited about specific markets than they maybe should be.

Those who crow: ‘everything will be financialized’ took a big hit when, recently, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong mentioned every word that he hadn’t already mentioned in an earnings call, resolving many prediction markets focused on this as yes, rather than no.

Many cried ‘insider trading’ but looking at these markets, they were very small. In the 10s of thousands of dollars.

Armstrong saw this as a joke, and my belief is that this was the case.

But it also showed that… not everything will be a market.

For a proper market, you need participants taking either side, and market makers willing to make these markets.

But why would participants be willing to take the other side of the market when the market is deemed a joke by the person who decides the outcome? There is no jeopardy. There is no value in the information. This is the ‘memestock-ification’ of prediction markets. They will never mature, nor be mainstream.

We have likewise seen Kalshi launch parlays, or accumulators, this side of the pond, for their customers. But these multi-leg wagers are built by, and designed for, centralized sports books. You need someone willing to be on the other end of every leg to guarantee a payout.

This will, in my opinion, be incredibly difficult to mirror in peer-to-peer markets. There will be some things that are just much more difficult to replicate than what a sportsbook offers.

But beyond all of this, the teething issues and the exciting future of prediction markets: the TAM is more than sports, it’s everything.

Regulation will mature to find a way to make these markets mature and a big part of our economy.

The commoditization of information, research and probabilities via prediction markets is fascinating, and will have a huge impact on every industry.

More Sports & Web3 Stories

• Ruben Dias becomes OKX Ambassador (Read more here)

• Australian Rugby team The Dolphins partner with ZKP (Read more here)

• MoonPay Brings Seamless Payments to Football.Fun (Read more here)

• Mythos launches first L3 on World Chain, also adopting anti-bot World ID (Read more here)

• MyPrize Becomes the First Social Gaming Business to Offer Prediction Markets in Partnership with Crypto[dot]com (Read more here)

• ONE Championship and Animoca Debut Blockchain Game (Read more here)

• International rugby player charged over alleged £70,000 crypto theft (Read more here)

• Judge Orders Crypto[dot]com to Halt Nevada Sports Prediction Markets Amid Legal Battle (Read more here)

General ‘Stuff’ that Could Impact You

• Will Robinhood Start a Bitcoin Treasury? (Read more here)

• Improbable has announced its financial results for 2024 (Read more here)

• Yuga Labs’ Otherside officially opens its doors on 12th November (Read more here)

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