Table of Contents

• The Shift Nobody Saw Coming

• What the Local Numbers Are Showing

• What I Keep Seeingg in the Field

• My Read on Where This Is Heading

The Shift Nobody Saw Coming

Right now in Shasta County, that shift shows up in every showing and every negotiation. Buyers are active. They are out there looking. But they are not competing for homes. They are comparing them, carefully, on a timeline that works for them and nobody else. That is what this market has become, and sellers who have not figured that out yet are learning it the expensive way.

The 30-year fixed rate sits at 6.58% today. It has barely moved in nearly a year. Buyers who spent the past two years waiting for rates to fall have mostly stopped waiting. The Fed held rates unchanged at its last meeting and signaled no urgency to cut. That rate on the chart below is not a surprise anymore. It is the baseline buyers have built their decisions around.

What the Local Numbers Are Showing

In Redding, there are 600 active listings right now. That number still sits about 17% below where inventory was in May 2019. Supply has not flooded back. Local values are down about 0.9% year over year and sit 4.5% below the 2022 peak. Step back further and the picture changes: up 8.5% over five years, up 34% over seven years. Most of the pandemic appreciation held. What did not hold is the urgency that defined buyer behavior during those years.

The map below puts Redding in national context. Look at the red markets — Austin is down 5.7%, Cape Coral down 6.1%, Punta Gorda down 7.9%. Those markets surged on speculation and relocation demand during the pandemic and are now correcting hard. Redding is down 0.9%. We did not spike on speculation. We are not correcting on it either.

👉 Check out the interactive map here 👈

What I Keep Seeingg in the Field

Today's buyers compare where 2021 buyers competed. They view more homes before deciding. They negotiate harder and walk away more often. They leave a listing that is not priced right without writing an offer, without asking for a counter, sometimes without asking a question at all. They do not feel pressure to act, and they know the market is not going to punish them for taking their time. That shift, from urgency to patience, is the single biggest change in this market over the past three years.

I see it in the field every week. A buyer walks through a home that checks every box, expresses genuine interest, and then goes quiet. Not because something was wrong with the property. Because there are four other properties they also liked, and none of them are going anywhere. The need to decide right now is gone. Buyers have time and they are using every bit of it.

*Real-time market profile for Shasta County, CA — June 18, 2026. Source: Altos Research

My Read on Where This Is Heading

What I have noticed more recently is that sellers are starting to catch up to this reality. For much of the past year, many sellers came in with 2021 instincts still intact. They priced high, left room to negotiate, and waited to see what the market would do. What the market did was send buyers elsewhere without so much as a phone call. Now, more sellers are asking the right question first: what have comparable homes actually sold for in the last 90 days? That is a different starting point, and it leads to a different outcome.

My read: this market is not broken. It is just different. The mechanics are slower. Buyers are more deliberate. The cost of mispricing is higher, because overpriced listings do not draw low offers to work from. They draw silence. And every week that passes without an offer costs more than any negotiation would have.

The sellers closing deals right now priced honestly from day one and let the market confirm it. That discipline has not changed. What has changed is how quickly the market punishes the ones who skip it.

If you have been thinking about making a move before summer winds down, let's have a conversation first. I can put together a current number for your home based on what has actually sold in your neighborhood and walk you through what this market will and will not support right now. No obligation. Just an honest look before you decide anything.

Reply to this email and I will reach out to set something up.

Table of Contents

• The Big Picture

• What the Local Data Shows

• What I Am Seeing on the Ground

• What Does This Mean for You?

• I Want to Hear From You

• Find Out Where You Stand

A seller lists their home at $675,000 in Redding. Good house. Good neighborhood. Priced where comparable homes have sold in the past. Sixty days later, showings have slowed to a trickle and the listing expires. A few miles away, a home listed at $390,000 gets multiple offers in under three weeks. Same market. Same month. Completely different outcome.

This is happening more often than most people realize, and the data explains why.

The Big Picture

Nationally, the housing market has entered what analysts describe as a "soft but stabilizing" period. Active inventory grew just 2.2% year-over-year in May, a dramatic slowdown from the 31.5% growth seen the year before. Inventory is still below 2019 levels. Mortgage rates climbed to 6.68% last week after a strong jobs report made it clear the Fed is in no hurry to cut. The economy is holding up. But that strength is keeping borrowing costs elevated, and that has consequences for who can buy what.

Those consequences are not spread evenly across the market here in Shasta County. They are concentrated.

What the Local Data Shows

The entry-level market under $450,000 is working. Failure rates in Redding range from 15% to 23% in that segment. Homes are selling within reasonable timeframes. Buyers are active and writing offers. If you are selling a home in that range and it is priced correctly, conditions are manageable.

Above $550,000, the picture changes fast.

Between $550,000 and $700,000, failure rates jump to 40% or higher. In the $650,000 to $700,000 band specifically, more than half of listings in Redding failed to sell over the last six months. County-wide, the number is 50%. Days on market stretch into the 70s. Market friction nearly triples compared to the entry-level segment.

This is where the rate environment is doing real damage. Move-up buyers are running the numbers on a $650,000 purchase at 6.68% and many of them are deciding the payment does not make sense.

What I Am Seeing on the Ground

I am seeing it firsthand. More expired listings in that mid-range. Buyers active in the lower bands, writing offers, closing deals. But those same buyers are not bridging into the $650,000 to $700,000 segment at the pace sellers there need. The result is a growing gap between the part of the market that is functioning and the part that is stuck.

This tells me something important about the next six months. Sellers in the move-up range cannot price their home based on what they think it should be worth. They need to price it based on what today's buyer, with today's rates, can actually afford and is willing to pay. In this segment, the margin for error on pricing is almost zero. The listings that sell are the ones that come out of the gate right. The ones that do not are expiring.

What Does This Mean for You?

If your home is worth under $450,000, conditions are working in your favor. Buyer activity is steady, failure rates are low, and well-priced homes are moving. The key is not to get complacent on pricing just because demand is there.

If your home falls between $550,000 and $700,000, this is the segment that requires the most attention right now. The data is clear that buyers in this range are more cautious, more rate-sensitive, and more willing to wait. If you are thinking about selling, your initial list price is the single most important decision you will make. Homes that come out priced right are still selling. Homes that test the market are expiring. There is very little middle ground.

If your home is above $700,000, performance varies. Some bands are doing fine. Others are not. The answer depends heavily on your specific location, property type, and competition. A broad market number will not tell you much. You need a pricing strategy built around what is actually active and selling in your immediate range.

No matter where you fall, the days of listing high and waiting for the market to catch up are over in most segments. The sellers who are succeeding right now are the ones who understand exactly where their home sits relative to the competition and price accordingly from day one.

I Want to Hear From You

What are you seeing in your price range? Hit reply and tell me.

Are you seeing more competition? More price reductions? More inventory? More buyer hesitation?

I read every reply and often use those observations in future market reports.

Find Out Where You Stand

Curious where your home sits in all of this? Reply to this email and I will put together a pricing analysis based on your specific property and what is actually happening in your price band right now.

Table of Contents

• The Macro Picture Has Shifted

• What the Local Numbers Are Showing

• What I Keep Seeing in the Field

• My Read on Where This Is Heading

Right now in Shasta County, the median active list price is $464,700. The median sold price is $395,000. That gap is nearly $70,000, and it tells you more about this market than any headline you will read this spring.

That spread does not exist because buyers have disappeared. It exists because a meaningful number of sellers are still pricing to a market that stopped being real two years ago.

The Macro Picture Has Shifted

Nationally, Zillow's Market Heat Index puts the U.S. housing market at 55 this spring. That is actually a slight uptick from where things stood a year ago — but do not let that fool you. We are still nowhere near the 2021 and 2022 boom. The chart below puts that in perspective.

The Redding metro scores 63 today. That sounds reasonable until you see where we came from. Redding hit 98 at the height of the pandemic boom in 2021 and 2022. The map below shows exactly where Redding stands right now compared to every other metro in the country.

Take a look at the blue areas — those are the markets that have cooled the most. You will notice they are concentrated in the Sun Belt states: Florida, Texas, Arizona, and parts of the Southeast. Those markets saw some of the biggest surges during the pandemic as people relocated in large numbers, and they are now dealing with the most correction. Redding did not spike to those extremes, and we are not seeing that kind of pullback either. We are softer than the peak, but we are holding better than a lot of the country.

What the Local Numbers Are Showing

Rates have kept affordability tight. Buyers are doing the math before they ever step through a door. They know their monthly payment. When a home is priced above where comparable homes have sold, most buyers do not make a low offer to start a conversation. They just move to the next listing.

There are 532 active listings in Shasta County right now. Buyers have options, and they are using them. At the current pace of sales, that works out to about 3.1 months of inventory — still technically a seller-leaning market, but only for homes that are priced to match what buyers are actually willing to pay.

The homes going under contract are clustering around a median of $389,450 — well below the median of what sellers are actively asking, and very close to the $395,000 median of what has actually closed. That is not coincidence. Buyers are telling us exactly where they will transact.

The average closed sale this year ran 89 days from list to close. That is a patient buyer pool. They are comparing options carefully. And in too many cases, they are never going back to the homes that came out overpriced. Once a buyer mentally rules out a listing, it rarely gets a second look, even after a price cut.

What I Keep Seeing in the Field

Sellers who want to price above my recommendation often say they want to leave room to negotiate. The logic is understandable. But it is not working in this market.

A $35,000 premium above comparable sales does not signal flexibility to today's buyers. It signals that the seller is out of touch with where things are. They do not make an offer. They do not ask questions. They just leave. There is no negotiation because there is no offer to begin with.

To put that in perspective, take a look at what this same market looked like in March 2021, the last time sellers could price with that kind of confidence.

My Read on Where This Is Heading

The demand is real. Correctly priced homes are finding buyers. But the buyers who are active right now are the most payment-sensitive group I have worked with since before the pandemic.

They are not stretching. They are not gambling on a seller coming down. They are buying the homes that are already priced where the market actually is. Sellers who understand that are closing deals. Those holding out for 2021-era returns are watching the days pile up.

The sellers moving property right now priced based on what actually sold in the last 90 days. That discipline is the difference between a closed deal and a listing that sits.

If you have been thinking about selling, I am happy to put together a current number for you based on real comps. Just an honest look at where your home sits in this market right now. Reply to this email and I will take it from there.

Lately, I’ve had more conversations with people who were not planning to become landlords, but are now at least considering it. Some are trying to decide whether to sell, while others are wondering if renting the property out makes more sense for now.

That got me curious about what is actually happening in the rental market here in Redding. Instead of guessing, I reached out to a local property manager who is in it every day to get a real-world take on pricing, demand, maintenance, and what owners should know before they make that decision.

Key Takeaways

Demand is strong, but pricing decides everything
Well-priced rentals are filling in under a week. Overpriced units sit.

Rents are rising, but affordability is tightening
Rents are up over the past year, but more renters are sharing housing to make it work.

Landlord risk has increased
Tenant protections and screening rules have made mistakes more expensive.

Maintenance matters more than most think
HVAC, roof, and gutters are the items that quietly turn into larger costs.

Q&A: Local Rental Market

What is actually happening in the rental market right now?

Demand is still strong, but only when pricing is right. Rentals are moving, but affordability is starting to shape where tenants land. More renters are adjusting expectations or sharing housing to make the numbers work.

Where is rental demand strongest today?

Demand is concentrated in more affordable options. Duplexes, apartments, and townhomes are consistently renting faster. Single-family homes are more price-sensitive since tenants are comparing them directly to the cost of ownership.

How fast are rentals moving right now?

Well-priced rentals are filling quickly, often within a week. When a property sits, it is usually a pricing or condition issue. Restrictions like no pets can also narrow the pool and slow things down.

What are rents doing right now?

Rents have increased over the past year, but they are starting to meet resistance. As prices rise, tenants become more selective and affordability begins to cap how far rents can go.

Where are owners getting it wrong?

Overpricing is the most common mistake. Some owners are looking at larger markets and expecting similar results, but local demand sets the ceiling. The other issue is underestimating the legal and screening side of managing a rental.

What maintenance actually matters for landlords?

Preventive maintenance is what protects long-term returns. HVAC servicing, gutter cleaning, and roof inspections are the biggest ones to stay ahead of. Small issues that get ignored tend to turn into larger, more expensive problems.

When does renting stop making sense?

Renting becomes less attractive when the numbers stop working. Negative cash flow, ongoing repairs, and rising insurance costs all add pressure. Rent caps also limit how much owners can adjust over time.

What This Means for Buyers

More rental inventory can create opportunity. Some of these properties were originally listed for sale and may come back to the market if renting does not work out. That can lead to more options and, in some cases, more negotiating room.

What This Means for Sellers

Not every home will sell at the number owners expect, and renting can feel like a fallback. The reality is that being a landlord comes with its own risks, costs, and responsibilities. The decision is not just about holding the property. It is about whether the numbers and the effort actually make sense.

Why This Matters

The rental market and the resale market are more connected than most people realize. When homes do not sell, some move into the rental pool. When rentals do not perform, some move back into the resale market. That back-and-forth creates both opportunity and risk depending on how you position yourself.

The people who win in this market are not guessing. They are pricing correctly, staying realistic about demand, and making decisions based on how the property actually performs.

Most people don’t realize how different the outcome can be depending on how this decision is approached. If you are weighing rent versus sell, it is worth mapping it out before committing either way.

If you want to walk through your numbers and see what makes the most sense, I am always available to help you think it through.

Table of Contents

• Prices Haven’t Collapsed. They’ve Leveled.

• National Headlines Are Loud. Local Reality Is Meas …

• Inventory Is Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels.

• What the Buyer Pool Actually Looks Like

• This Market Rewards Accuracy, Not Panic.

If you only followed national housing headlines, you’d assume something dramatic is unfolding.

Slowdowns. Corrections. Cooling demand.

But real estate isn’t national. It’s local.

And when you isolate Redding and Shasta County, the picture becomes far more measured than the headlines suggest.

Prices Haven’t Collapsed. They’ve Leveled.

Since 2016, values have climbed meaningfully. The recent year-over-year adjustment is modest in the context of that longer trend.

Perspective changes interpretation.

National Headlines Are Loud. Local Reality Is Measured.

Some metros are correcting sharply. Others are still rising.

Redding sits in the middle — historically steady, rarely extreme.

That steadiness doesn’t generate headlines. But it creates resilience.

Inventory Is Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels.

Yes, inventory is higher than 2021.

No, it hasn’t flooded.

What’s changed isn’t supply.

It’s tempo.

Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers are more selective. Negotiation has returned.

But movement hasn’t stopped.

What the Buyer Pool Actually Looks Like

Right now in Shasta County, there are 234 active listings between $250,000 and $500,000 — the range where most demand lives.

Within Redding city limits, 90 of those are active.

In the last 30 days:

• 67 homes went pending

• 51 closed

For every home that pended, about three to four remained active.

That’s not stagnation.

If no new homes came to market, the current inventory would clear in roughly three to four months.

Well-priced homes, presented cleanly, are still generating activity. Some are seeing multiple offers. Some are closing above list.

The difference now is precision.

This Market Rewards Accuracy, Not Panic.

A few years ago, momentum carried homes forward.

Today, the market is asking a sharper question:

Is this home aligned with current buyer behavior?

The national conversation may remain loud. But locally, the numbers tell a steadier story — one where strategy matters more than speculation.

And in real estate, the local story is the one that pays.

Whether you’re thinking about selling and wondering if the timing is right, considering a purchase in Shasta County, or simply curious what your home would realistically command today — reply to this email or reach out at kory@sellinginshasta.com.

We’ll look at your specific situation and build a plan around what the local numbers actually say.

— Kory & Veronica Normandeau

P.S. The next 60 days of spring inventory will tell us a lot about where this market heads for the rest of 2026. I’m watching it closely — and I’ll share what I see.

Table of Contents

• Why this week felt especially frustrating

• What caused the sudden reversal

• What this tells us about today’s market

• Why waiting for certainty is harder now

• What actually drives selling decisions

• The real takeaway for sellers

 Why this week felt especially frustrating

Over the past several weeks, mortgage rates were genuinely moving in the right direction. Momentum was building, and for the first time in a while, it felt like conditions were starting to improve. That’s why the sudden 15-basis-point jump this week caught so much attention. It didn’t just move rates higher. It interrupted a trend that many sellers were beginning to feel cautiously optimistic about.

 What caused the sudden reversal

The jump wasn’t driven by local housing demand or buyer behavior. It came from broader uncertainty in global markets. Geopolitical tension, particularly involving Europe, raised concerns among investors about how large pools of money might shift within U.S. debt and mortgage-backed assets. Even the possibility of those shifts was enough to push yields higher.

That’s how sensitive the system is right now. Housing doesn’t operate in isolation, and positive momentum can pause or reverse quickly, even when nothing has changed locally.

What this tells us about today’s market

This doesn’t mean rates are headed straight back up long term. It does show how fragile improvement can be. Progress no longer happens in smooth, predictable lines. It moves forward, pauses, pulls back, and resets based on forces far beyond housing.

This isn’t opinion. It’s what we’ve watched happen repeatedly.

 Why waiting for certainty is harder now

Many sellers are waiting for clearer signals. More stable rates. Less noise. More confidence that conditions won’t shift again next week. The challenge is that by the time things feel settled, other factors often change first. Inventory builds. Buyer urgency fades. Pricing expectations lag behind the market.

Waiting feels safe. But it isn’t neutral.

What actually drives selling decisions

Homes don’t come to market because rates hit the perfect number. They come to market because life keeps moving. A growing household. Downsizing. A job change. A desire for less stress, more flexibility, or greater certainty.

Rates influence how a move is structured, not why the move exists.

The real takeaway for sellers

Sellers can’t control geopolitics or bond markets. They can control pricing, positioning, and strategy based on current demand. In a market that can change quickly, clarity and preparation matter more than waiting for conditions to feel ideal again.

Waiting for conditions to feel more certain is understandable. The more important question is what changes while you wait. Pricing, buyer urgency, and competition don’t stand still.

If you want a clear, honest look at how timing affects your specific home, that’s a conversation worth having now.

A seller called me this week….. Not to list his home….. Just to get a second opinion.

His house has been on the market for about three months. He listed it with a family friend from out of the area at a discounted fee. At the time, it felt like a smart move.

The home has had activity. Around 20 buyers have walked through. But nothing has happened. No offers. Along the way, the price has been reduced by roughly $40,000.

During our conversation, he said something that mattered.

He wished they hadn’t started as high as they did.

Not because he was unrealistic. But because he didn’t understand how the local market would react to that first price, or what the consequences would be once the listing sat. No one had explained that decision in context.

There wasn’t much strategy beyond, “Let’s try this number and see what happens.” When nothing happened, the adjustment was simply to lower the price and wait again.

And this isn’t just an out-of-area agent issue.

Even local agents sometimes do this. A seller asks what they could get. A number is suggested that sounds great. Everyone hopes the market agrees. When it doesn’t, the price gets adjusted later.

That isn’t strategy.

That’s reaction.

Here’s the part most sellers don’t realize.

Pricing strategy should explain the full picture:

• Where buyers are actually active right now

• What happens when a home misses that window

• How quickly leverage disappears once momentum is lost

The market doesn’t punish effort. It punishes inaccuracy.

In this case, saving on commission felt good upfront. But starting in the wrong position ended up costing far more than the discount ever saved.

Time was lost.

Leverage disappeared.

Tens of thousands were erased.

By the time the price finally made sense, the listing no longer felt new.

Are you thinking of selling this year? Before choosing a price, make sure you understand the consequences of missing the market the first time.

That decision carries more weight than most people realize.

Table of Contents

• Big headlines don’t always mean big change

• What made COVID different

• Why yesterday’s proposal is different

• A quick note on today’s rate move

• How sellers usually react anyway

• What matters right now

• The takeaway

• Whats your plan?

Big headlines don’t always mean big change

Yesterday, headlines broke about $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases and speculation that mortgage rates could move lower. On the surface, it sounds significant. But context matters.

To understand what this could actually mean, it helps to look at what happened the last time government intervention truly reshaped the housing market.

What made COVID different

When the housing market seized up in early 2020, the Federal Reserve stepped in with force. Before COVID even began, the Fed already held roughly $1.4 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. During the pandemic response, it added another $1.3 trillion in a short window of time. At its peak, the Federal Reserve held nearly $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, a scale that fundamentally reshaped borrowing costs.

That scale mattered. Those purchases were fast, massive, and coordinated. Mortgage rates dropped sharply. Liquidity flooded the system. Buyer demand surged while inventory stayed tight. Prices moved quickly, and competition became intense. That wasn’t accidental. It was the result of a historic intervention.

Why yesterday’s proposal is different

What’s being discussed now is very different in both size and intent. The current proposal involves up to $200 billion, spread out over time, in a market measured in trillions. Even in an optimistic scenario, the impact on mortgage rates would likely be modest. This isn’t a flood. It’s a ripple.

That distinction matters because markets don’t respond to headlines. They respond to magnitude and speed. COVID had both. Today does not.

A quick note on today’s rate move

You may have noticed that mortgage rates dipped shortly after this news broke. That response is real. Financial markets often react quickly to directional signals, even before any policy is executed.

What’s important to understand is the difference between a market reaction and a market reset. Short-term rate movement reflects sentiment and expectations. Sustained affordability changes require scale, speed, and follow-through.

That distinction is why this moment feels positive, but still falls well short of what happened during COVID.

How sellers usually react anyway

Even when the impact is small, headlines influence behavior. Many sellers read this kind of news and think, “If rates drop, more buyers show up. If more buyers show up, prices go higher. Maybe I should wait.” That logic feels reasonable. It’s also where many sellers miscalculate.

Lower rates mainly improve buyer access, not buyer urgency. They help people qualify. They don’t automatically make buyers stretch. And when rates fall meaningfully, more sellers tend to list as well, which brings competition back into the picture. That’s why lower rates don’t always equal higher prices.

What matters right now

Today’s market isn’t being driven by rate headlines. It’s being driven by positioning. Homes that are priced correctly and aligned with buyer expectations are still getting attention. Homes that rely on hope or future conditions are not. Waiting for clarity often means waiting until it is gone.

The takeaway

COVID reshaped the market because the action was drastic. This proposal is not. Don’t let headline size substitute for real analysis. The opportunity in this market belongs to sellers who act on strategy, not speculation.

Whats your plan?

If you’re thinking about selling this year, the most important questions are not about the news. They’re about your buyer pool, your competition, and your positioning. If you want to walk through those factors with real data and no pressure, reply to this email or reach out directly.

Table of Contents

• Why Expectations Matter More Than Rates

• Buyers Adjusted Their Rate Tolerance

• What This Means for Buyers

• What This Means for Sellers

• Looking Ahead to 2026

Looking across forecasts from 21 major housing research groups, the average expectation for the 30 year fixed mortgage rate in 2026 lands at 6.18 percent. Estimates range from roughly 5.75 percent on the low end to about 6.60 percent on the high end.

At the time of writing this newsletter, rates sit near 6.20 percent. Earlier in 2025, this newsletter referenced a 6.34 percent projection. Current rates now track slightly below that estimate. The market aligned with the forecast sooner than expected.

Why Expectations Matter More Than Rates

Earlier this year, this newsletter focused on one idea. Expectations.

The article looked at where the market had been, where it was heading, and how mortgage rate forecasts were shaping decisions. Rates near 5 percent had anchored expectations for years. When rates moved higher, activity slowed as people waited for a return to those levels.

The article examined how forecasted rates influenced timing more than price or inventory. You can read the context 👉 here 👈

New data now shows expectations shifting.

Buyers Adjusted Their Rate Tolerance

Recent surveys show buyers accept higher rates than in prior years. Many report comfort in the low to mid 6 percent range.

Once buyers accept current rates, decisions resume.

Once rates stop surprising people, planning improves.

Once expectations align with reality, movement follows.

What This Means for Buyers

Rates near current levels align with long term forecasts. Waiting for a major drop introduces risk. Inventory and competition now matter more than rate predictions.

Focus on monthly payment comfort.

Track local inventory and days on market.

Move forward when a home fits budget and timing.

What This Means for Sellers

Buyers adjusted expectations. Pricing must follow. Overpricing tied to past rate environments leads to longer market time. Homes priced for current demand still sell.

Focus on condition and presentation.

Price for today’s buyers.

Expect informed buyers who already accepted current financing costs.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Forecasts point to normalization. No sharp drop. No surge. A steady range where expectations stabilize and activity returns.

The core question heading into 2026 stays simple.

Have expectations caught up to reality.

The data says yes.

If buying or selling sits on your 2026 horizon, now works as the moment to reset assumptions. Review numbers. Study local demand. Build a plan grounded in current conditions.

Reply to this email if you want a local breakdown tied to your price range, timing, and goals.

How do you see 2026 shaping up for you?

Right now the market feels like it’s on pause. Buyers are holding out for lower rates, sellers are waiting for “better conditions,” and almost every expired listing plans to relist in the spring. The assumption is that waiting will eventually tip the market in their favor, but the actual market behavior tells a very different story

Table of Contents

• The National Picture: A Pullback in Confidence

• What We’re Seeing in Shasta County

• What This Means for Buyers

• What This Means for Sellers

• Bottom Line

• So what does all this mean?

• Want clarity on your situation?

The National Picture: A Pullback in Confidence

This is what’s happening nationally: delistings have climbed to a decade high.

Not because homes are bad — people are just unsure, overwhelmed, or tired.

• Confidence is low.

• Movement is low.

• But fundamentals haven’t blown up.

This is what a hesitation market looks like.

What We’re Seeing in Shasta County

Locally, the same pattern is playing out.

Failed listings have been rising again, and many homeowners who pulled their listings are planning to return in spring.

When a handful of people wait, it can help them.

When everyone waits, spring becomes crowded — more listings, more competition, and less visibility for any single home.

The current slowdown isn’t caused by weak demand or collapsing values.

It’s caused by hesitation.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers today have three advantages they won’t have if rates dip:

• Less competition

• More negotiating power

• More sellers willing to offer credits or concessions

Waiting may bring more inventory, but it also brings more buyers.

And buyers — not listings — are what fuel bidding wars.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers who need to move, spring may not be the magic solution people expect.

• More listings at once create more competition

• Buyers spread their attention across more homes

• Your home risks blending in instead of standing out

Right now, the quieter season gives sellers something valuable:

a chance to stand out with less noise in the market.

Bottom Line

Everyone is waiting for something — lower rates, the right timing, a clearer signal.

But real estate doesn’t reward hesitation. It rewards timing.

Today’s market isn’t broken.

Confidence is.

And when confidence returns, the leverage buyers and sellers have right now will shift quickly.

So what does all this mean?

It means hesitation — not the economy — is controlling the market. And when people freeze, the ones who keep moving get the best positioning, the best leverage, and the best outcomes.

Want clarity on your situation?

If you want to know whether waiting or acting right now gives you the better outcome for your specific home or situation, text me the address. I’ll run the scenario both ways and tell you — clearly, honestly, and without any pressure — which path puts you in the stronger position.e.

Table of Contents

• 🏡 Real Estate Reality Check: What “Value” Really …

• 💡 Value Isn’t Absolute — It’s an Estimate Grounde …

• 📈 About the 2021–2022 Peak

• 🏘️ For Sellers: The Market Sets the Price, Not th …

• 💰 For Buyers: You Shape the Market, Too

• 🔍 Why This Perspective Matters

• ❤️ The Bottom Line

• ✉️ Curious What Your Home Might Be Worth Right Now …

🏡 Real Estate Reality Check: What “Value” Really Means Today

“Has my home lost value — or has its value simply changed?” It’s a fair question, especially with how much the market has shifted since the highs of 2021 and 2022.

The truth is, a home’s value isn’t a fixed number or a price tag hanging on the front door. And it’s definitely not whatever Zillow estimates this week.

Value is perception — it’s what today’s buyers are willing to pay, based on interest rates, supply and demand, and how your home compares to what else is available.

A few years ago, the market looked very different. Record-low rates and fierce competition pushed prices to temporary highs. Those days created a lot of great equity stories — but they also created some unrealistic expectations.

💡 Value Isn’t Absolute — It’s an Estimate Grounded in Market Behavior

When we prepare a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), we’re studying recent sales of similar homes to estimate what the market might pay for yours right now.

It’s a data-driven guide, not a guarantee. Real value becomes clear only when a buyer makes an offer and a seller agrees to accept it. Until then, value is theoretical — a reflection of market behavior, not a locked-in truth.

📈 About the 2021–2022 Peak

Let’s talk about those peak years everyone remembers.

In 2021 and 2022, historically low interest rates, tight inventory, and an intense wave of buyer demand sent home prices soaring.

Homes were selling in days, often well above asking price. Here’s the key: those prices were a moment in history, not a permanent benchmark. If you bought or refinanced during that time, that number is part of your story — but it doesn’t define your home’s current value. Today’s market plays by a different set of rules: higher rates, more inventory, and more cautious buyers.

The takeaway? Your home’s current value depends on today’s demand and competition — not what it sold for a few years ago, or what it could havesold for back then.

🏘️ For Sellers: The Market Sets the Price, Not the Agent

If your home isn’t getting the activity you expected — fewer showings, no offers — that’s not necessarily a marketing problem. It’s the market giving us feedback.

My role isn’t to “pick a price.” It’s to interpret market data, position your home competitively, and adjust our strategy as the market responds. Buyers shop by comparison.

We’ll make sure your home stands out on both presentation and perceived value — where it matters most.

💰 For Buyers: You Shape the Market, Too

Every offer you make (or pass on) helps shape what homes are worth in your area.

Well-priced homes sell faster because they align with what buyers see as fair value. Homes priced outside that zone tend to sit — not because they’re bad homes, but because the market doesn’t see the same value the seller does.

When you buy, you’re not just purchasing a home — you’re helping set the next standard for the neighborhood.

🔍 Why This Perspective Matters

Markets shift constantly. Interest rates, inventory levels, and buyer sentiment all move in cycles. The smartest approach — whether you’re buying or selling — is to:

• Make decisions based on current data, not yesterday’s peak.

• Stay flexible and responsive to market feedback.

• Work with a Realtor who delivers truth, strategy, and perspective — not just a number.

❤️ The Bottom Line

A home’s true value lives where data and human emotion meet: what the market supports, what a buyer feels, and what a seller is willing to accept.

My job is to help you navigate that balance with honesty, strategy, and clarity — so you can make confident, informed decisions in today’s market.

✉️ Curious What Your Home Might Be Worth Right Now?

If you’re thinking about selling — or just wondering how your home fits into the current market — I can prepare a personalized market snapshot showing exactly where your property stands today. And if you’re buying, I’ll help you spot real value opportunities in this changing landscape.

💬 Want more insights like this — or have thoughts on today’s market? Reply here and tell me what you think. I’d love to hear your take.

Table of Contents

• 🔹 Fed Cuts, but Mortgage Rates Spike….AGAIN

• 📉 Powell Reflects on the Fed's Role in the Housin …

• 📉 Don’t Be Fooled by the Headlines: Rates Are Not …

• 🔍 A Bit of Relief: Friday Rates Ticked Lower

• Final Thought

• 📊 Updated Mortgage Rate Snapshot (as of 10/31/25)

🔹 Fed Cuts, but Mortgage Rates Spike….AGAIN

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, bringing it down to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. The vote was 10-2.

Yet mortgage rates moved higher immediately after, with the 30-year fixed average jumping from 6.13% to 6.33% in just 24 hours. Why?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that another rate cut in December is "not a foregone conclusion." He acknowledged stronger-than-expected economic growth, ongoing inflation pressures, and a softening labor market. This combination made investors reassess the Fed's long-term path, nudging bond yields (and mortgage rates) higher.

Meanwhile, Powell addressed rising layoffs in major U.S. companies like Amazon, Paramount, UPS, and Target, stating the Fed is watching this trend "very, very carefully."

📉 Powell Reflects on the Fed's Role in the Housing Boom

In a recent speech at the National Association for Business Economics, Powell acknowledged that the Fed likely kept buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for too long during the pandemic.

From 2020–2021, the Fed purchased hundreds of billions in MBS to support the market. Critics argue this artificially suppressed mortgage rates and fueled the pandemic housing boom. Powell pushed back slightly, suggesting other forces (like remote work, migration, and savings) had a greater effect.

Importantly, Powell ruled out buying MBS again as a tool to lower rates or support affordability:

📉 Don’t Be Fooled by the Headlines: Rates Are Not Falling

You may have seen headlines claiming mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in over a year—but that’s outdated and misleading.

Take a look at the chart below 👇

🟡 Yellow markers show when the Fed announced its rate cuts.

What happened next? Rates spiked, rising 0.20% in just 48 hours — the sharpest two-day jump since the Fed’s previous rate cut.

So why the confusion?

Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey (released Thursdays) is based on data from last Thursday through Wednesday morning — before the spike. So it reflected the low point, not the real-time increase.

The key takeaway: The Fed cut was already priced in. Rates moved in response to Powell's press conference and broader market signals.

This reminds us: mortgage rates react not to the Fed's decision itself, but to expectations about inflation, growth, and market risk.

🔍 A Bit of Relief: Friday Rates Ticked Lower

After Thursday's spike, Friday brought a slight win: rates dropped to 6.28% from 6.33%. It's still higher than the week before, but a bit of recovery.

Analysts note that Thursday's hike may have included a cushion that lenders removed Friday. Still, unless bonds improve by Monday, rates could adjust slightly higher to start next week.

In short:

• 🔼 Rates rose sharply post-Fed

• 🔹 Small Friday dip to 6.28%

• 📊 Still higher than last week's 6.19%

Final Thought

Despite what the headlines may say, this week confirmed what we've been watching closely:

• Markets move on expectations, not just headlines

• Powell's tone was more cautious than dovish

• Home prices are still high, but appreciation is slowing

If you're considering buying or selling, the right timing and strategy matter more than ever. Want help navigating it all?

📢 Let's talk. I'm here when you're ready.

📊 Updated Mortgage Rate Snapshot (as of 10/31/25)

30 Yr Fixed: 6.28% ↓ –0.05%

15 Yr Fixed: 5.81% ↓ –0.04%

FHA: 6.01% | Jumbo: 6.30% | VA: 6.03%

Here to serve,

Table of Contents

• 💸 Current Market Reality: Affordability Is Quietl …

• 📊 What’s Happening with Home Prices?

• 🔍 How to Read These Charts:

  • 📈 Chart 1: Year-over-Year Price Change

  • 📉 Chart 2: Total Shift Since 2022 Peak

• ⚠️ Bought in 2021 or 2022?

• 💵 Housing Affordability: The Bigger Picture

• 🧠 Renting vs. Owning

• 📉 What About the Fed?

• 🎯 Final Thought

💸 Current Market Reality: Affordability Is Quietly Improving

While home prices in Redding have softened slightly since their 2022 peak, most of the pandemic-era gains are holding strong. And over the past two months, there’s been a surprisingly positive shift: affordability has actually improved.

Here’s what that looks like in real numbers:

• 📉 Monthly payments are now $200–$500 lower than they were just 60 days ago (thanks to small rate dips and seasonal price adjustments)

• 🏡 Buyers can often afford 10–20% more home for the same payment compared to late summer (be sure to talk with a local, knowledgeable lender)

These changes are pulling some would-be buyers off the sidelines — especially those who’ve been waiting for rates or prices to “correct.” They’re back in the office, running numbers, and writing offers.

📊 What’s Happening with Home Prices?

Let’s clear up the confusion: yes, home prices have softened a bit since their peak in 2022, but this is not a crash.

According to Zillow and ResiClub:

• 📈 From 2020–2022, home prices in Redding surged by over 28%

• 📉 Since the peak in mid-2022, they’ve pulled back just 4%

• ✅ In other words, most of the pandemic-era gains are holding strong

🔍 How to Read These Charts:

We’ve included two key visuals to help decode the market:

• Chart 1: “Home price YoY (Zillow)”

  Shows the year-over-year change in home values—how much prices have risen or fallen compared to the same month the year before. This helps track market momentum.

• Chart 2: “Home price shift since 2022 peak”

  Shows how far prices have moved from the absolute peak in 2022. It’s cumulative, so you can see the total change since then—not just a yearly change.

📈 Chart 1: Year-over-Year Price Change

📉 After peaking with a 20.4% annual gain in 2021, home prices have cooled but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

📉 Chart 2: Total Shift Since 2022 Peak

📊 Redding prices are down about 4% from their peak in mid-2022—well within the range of a healthy correction after a major run-up.

⚠️ Bought in 2021 or 2022?

If you purchased at or near the market peak, it’s important to be realistic about potential returns.

• 💡 Sellers who bought in 2021–2022: Don’t expect a profit unless you’ve made significant upgrades or are in a particularly competitive niche. The market has come down since those peak prices.

• 📉 While the dip is modest (around –4% since peak), it’s enough to eat into short-term equity—especially after closing costs.

Still, selling may make sense for lifestyle, relocation, or financial reasons. Just go in with clear eyes and a solid pricing strategy.

💵 Housing Affordability: The Bigger Picture

Affordability remains one of the most pressing challenges in real estate right now.

A recent Zillow analysis found:

In fact, in some high-cost cities like San Francisco, even 0% mortgage rates wouldn’t make housing affordable due to high taxes and ongoing maintenance costs.

🧠 Renting vs. Owning

Even with today’s rates, homeownership still offers long-term financial advantages:

• 🔐 Fixed mortgage payments protect against inflation

• 📈 Rent continues to rise, often outpacing income growth

• 💰 Owning builds equity—and financial stability—over time

  While affordability is tight, owning a home is still one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth.

📉 What About the Fed?

Many were surprised recently when the Fed cut the overnight rate, but mortgage rates stayed high. Here’s why:

• 🏦 The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates—those are tied to the bond market, inflation expectations, and global investor sentiment.

• 📉 Despite the rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s bearish tone signaled caution. He emphasized that inflation remains stubborn, and no aggressive easing is planned.

🎯 Final Thought

Housing markets don’t change overnight—but they do evolve. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply watching from the sidelines, staying informed is your best strategy.

📩 Want a personalized analysis of your home’s value or neighborhood activity? I’d be happy to create a tailored CMA or buyer game plan.

📢 P.S. The Fed is announcing its latest decision today. Stay tuned — I’ll break down what it means for our local market and your next move.

Here to serve,

Table of Contents

• 📌 The Fed Doesn’t Control Mortgage Rates

• 🏦 What Actually Happened

• ❌ Ignore the Headlines About “Lower Rates”

• ✅ The Bottom Line for Buyers & Sellers

• 🔑 Wrapping It Up

📌 The Fed Doesn’t Control Mortgage Rates

The Fed sets the overnight rate banks charge each other, not the 30-year fixed mortgage. Mortgage rates are tied to bonds — and bonds react to what the Fed says about the future, not just what they do today.

🏦 What Actually Happened

• Mortgage rates move daily, even hourly. They’re influenced by investor expectations around inflation, growth, and risk.

• The Fed cut yesterday — but markets had already priced it in. By the time Powell spoke, rates had already fallen in anticipation.

• His tone spooked bond investors. He framed the cut as “risk management,” downplayed big future cuts, and reminded everyone that more data could shift the plan. Translation: don’t expect a straight line down.

👉 The result? Lenders repriced mid-day, and mortgage rates jumped roughly 0.25% in just 48 hours — one of the sharpest two-day moves in months.

❌ Ignore the Headlines About “Lower Rates”

Some news outlets are reporting that “rates are lower” — but that’s based on Freddie Mac’s weekly average, which lags real-time markets by several days. If you call your lender today, you’ll find rates are actually higher than they were last week.

✅ The Bottom Line for Buyers & Sellers

• Buyers: Rates are still better than almost all of the past 11 months. If you’re waiting for “the bottom,” remember — by the time it hits the headlines, the market’s already moved.

• Sellers: Buyer budgets shrink as rates rise. Listing while affordability is stronger gives you a bigger pool of qualified buyers.

🔑 Wrapping It Up

Rates don’t always move the way the headlines suggest — and that’s exactly why it pays to have someone translate the noise into clear takeaways for your situation.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, a quick 10-minute strategy call can help you see:

✔️ What today’s rates actually mean for your budget or offers

✔️ How “wait vs. act now” might look in real numbers

✔️ Where the opportunities are before the next swing

📅 Reply with AM or PM and I’ll send you two time options. No pressure — just clarity.

PS - 📊 I know I said my next post would be about how home prices have held up since the 2022 peak — and I’ll get to that — but I wanted to share this quick update first since rates made such a big move. Stay tuned, that price breakdown is coming soon.

📊 This weeks update comes with a twist. The Fed just cut rates, yet mortgage rates ticked higher to 6.22%. Strange, right? It’s a reminder that rates don’t always follow the Fed — they follow the bond market’s reaction to Powell’s words.

The good news? Even with today’s bump, rates are still among the best we’ve seen in the past year. So whether you’re buying or selling, the question isn’t “are rates high?” but “how do today’s rates impact my timing and strategy?”

Table of Contents

• What Just Happened?

• The Bigger Picture 📊

• Why It Matters for You

  • Key Takeaway 💡

• Want Clarity on Your Options?

What Just Happened?

The Federal Reserve cut rates today — so why are mortgage rates higher this afternoon? 🤔

Here’s the thing most people don’t realize (and it trips up almost everyone I talk to): the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. A Fed rate cut only lowers the overnight rate that banks charge each other — not the 30-year fixed that buyers care about.

So why does everyone watch the Fed like it’s the only game in town? Because investors in the bond market are really the ones holding the steering wheel. They react not just to what the Fed does, but to what the Fed says. It’s less about the cut itself and more about the idea of what future cuts mean for inflation, growth, and risk. 📉➡️📈

That’s why today, even though the Fed cut, Jerome Powell’s cautious tone spooked the bond market… and mortgage rates actually ticked up.

Here’s what Powell said that shook the markets:

• He called today’s move a “risk management” cut, signaling caution more than confidence.

• The Fed’s dot plot showed two possible cuts in 2025 — but he stressed that’s not a promise.

• And Powell made clear there’s no consensus for a bigger (0.50%) cut

👉 Bottom line: The bond market didn’t buy into a straight path down. Mortgage lenders re-priced mid-day, and rates ended higher than yesterday, not lower.

The Bigger Picture 📊

Now, take a look at this graph:

Even with today’s small bump, mortgage rates are still near the best levels we’ve seen in the past year.

For buyers 🏡 — that means greater affordability compared to most of the past 12 months.

For sellers 📈 — it means more qualified buyers are still in the market, supporting steady demand.

Rather than focusing on the daily ups and downs, it’s worth looking at how today’s rates shape your next steps in the months ahead.

Why It Matters for You

For Buyers:

• Higher rates increase monthly payments — but dips can appear suddenly.

• Quick action during those dips may secure better affordability.

For Sellers:

• Buyer demand often softens when rates rise.

• Pricing and positioning matter more than ever to attract motivated buyers.

Key Takeaway 💡

Fed cuts don’t guarantee lower mortgage rates — the bond market calls the shots. And right now, Powell’s words pushed rates up. But step back and you’ll see: we’re still in one of the best rate environments in the past year.

Want Clarity on Your Options?

If you’re wondering what today’s 6.22% rate really means for you, let’s hop on a quick 10-minute call.

In that time, I’ll:

• Walk you through how the current rate impacts your buying or selling power 🏡

• Show what it looks like to wait versus act now — side by side 📊

• Give you a clear picture of the market without pressure, just facts and strategy 🤝

That’s it. No long lecture, no sales pitch — just the clarity you need to make a smart next move.

📌 Curious how home prices have really been holding since the peak of 2022?

The numbers may surprise you — and they tell an important story about where opportunities still exist in today’s market.

👉 I’ll break it down in the next active post (and I’m happy to share early if you reply to this email).

Table of Contents

• 📰 Rate Drop Alert: Buyers Just Got a Surprise Adv …

• 🧠 So What Should Sellers Do?

• 📊 What the Numbers Are Saying

• 📍How Much Has Your Area Gained in the Last 5, 10, …

• 🙌 Ready to Win in This Market?

📰 Rate Drop Alert: Buyers Just Got a Surprise Advantage

The biggest housing story today? Mortgage rates just fell sharply—dropping below 6.3% for the first time in over a year. Why? Weak job numbers released this morning signaled a cooling economy, pushing investors to bet on a near-certain Fed rate cut.

📉 From 7% to 6.29% in Just Weeks

After peaking near 7% earlier this year, 30-year fixed rates are now sliding—fast. That dip is giving buyers a rare moment of increased affordability. But don’t expect this to last: once lenders adjust or the Fed acts, rates often bounce.

🧠 So What Should Sellers Do?

Someone told me recently, “We’re waiting until the market is normal again.” Let’s be honest:

2020 to 2022 weren’t normal. That was a once-in-a-lifetime frenzy—3% rates, bidding wars, sight-unseen offers. If you’re waiting for that to return… you’re not waiting for a market. You’re waiting for a fantasy.

Even if rates continue to fall, there’s a catch: more competition.

If you wait to sell until everyone else jumps in, you’ll be competing against hundreds of new listings.

Right now? Buyers are getting rate relief, but inventory is still 13% lower than 2019, even with a 21% year-over-year jump in Shasta County. It’s an opportunity window—not a guarantee it will stay open.

📊 What the Numbers Are Saying

• Inventory is up 21% year-over-year

  Buyers have more options, but we’re still under pre-pandemic norms.

• Price trends? Surprisingly steady

  Home prices in Shasta County are down just 0.2% YoY and only 3.7% below peak.

  But check out the long view:

  → +28.6% over 5 years

  → +68% over 10 years

  → +94.6% over 15 years

• August Market Stats (Single Family Only):

  → Active Listings: 647

  → Closed Sales: 168

  → Median Days on Market: 71

  → Median Price: $370K

  → Sold-to-Original List Price: 96%

📈 Compared to August 2024: Inventory is up, sales volume is up, and prices are holding. It’s a market in motion—not a collapse.

📍How Much Has Your Area Gained in the Last 5, 10, or 15 Years?

👉 Click here to view the interactive market map 👈

🙌 Ready to Win in This Market?

Whether you’re buying or selling, today’s rate drop changes the math. Let’s talk strategy—not guesswork.

👉 Click here to request a custom home value report

Table of Contents

• 😕 Market Confusion Is Real—But Opportunity Still …

• 📊 Inventory’s Up. Prices? Not Crashing.

• 🧭 Inventory Is Up. So What?

• 💰 Bought Before 2020? You’re Still Way Ahead

• 🧠 Bought in 2022? Here’s the Reality Check

• 📉 The Numbers Say Balance. Buyers Feel Hesitation …

• 🛠️ Ready to Win in This Market?

😕 Market Confusion Is Real—But Opportunity Still Exists

If you’re feeling uncertain about the housing market right now, you’re not alone.

Prices are stable, inventory is rising, and headlines keep flip-flopping between “crash” and “recovery.” Many homeowners are hesitating—waiting for “the economy to come back” or buyers to magically return. But what if waiting is the wrong move?

This update isn’t national noise. It’s hyperlocal insight from the trenches—focused solely on Shasta County. Our numbers may not match every MLS stat you see, but that’s because we dig into the data that actually moves this market.

So before you decide whether to sell, hold, buy, or wait—read this. It might save you six figures… or help you make them.

📊 Inventory’s Up. Prices? Not Crashing.

Inventory is up 37% year over year—the highest for June since 2017. With 677 active listings and just 167 closings, buyers now have more options and time to negotiate.

But prices are holding. Median sale price came in at $395K, only 1% below last year, and average days on market ticked up slightly. This isn’t a crash—it’s a controlled rebalancing. A softening, not a slide.

And that’s key: buyers are no longer in a frenzy, but good homes are still selling—just not at yesterday’s prices.
Want to know how your property compares?

👉 Request your free home value report

🧭 Inventory Is Up. So What?

👉 Click here to view the interactive map 👈

June inventory jumped 37% year over year—but we’re still 13% below 2019 levels. Translation: more homes on the market, but still less than what we used to call “normal.”

And let’s be honest—2020 to 2022 weren’t normal years. That was the most abnormal market of our lifetime: 3% rates, bidding wars, sight-unseen offers. Trying to time your sale for that kind of market to return? That’s not a plan—it’s a fantasy.

Someone recently told us they’re waiting to sell “once the everything is normal again.” What they really meant? “Once interest rates drop.” But if that happens, expect a flood of listings—and a lot more competition, for buyer’s and seller’s!

Today’s market rewards sellers who read the room, act decisively, and price realistically. The longer you wait for yesterday, the harder it gets to win tomorrow.

💰 Bought Before 2020? You’re Still Way Ahead

👉 Click here to explore the interactive price trend map 👈

It’s easy to feel nervous when the news says prices are slipping. But here’s the bigger picture:

If you bought before 2020, your home has likely appreciated by 30% or more—even after accounting for the recent softening. That’s serious long-term equity.

And if you’re thinking of selling, remember: it’s not just about what it sells for… it’s about what you net. Today’s market rewards realistic, well-positioned sellers. Not dreamers chasing 2022 highs.

🧠 Bought in 2022? Here’s the Reality Check

Many buyers who purchased in 2022 had to win bidding wars—often paying 5–7% over list.

With prices now down around 3.5% from the peak, that means you might be 8–10% underwater on paper if you try to sell today. That stings—but it’s the truth.

Buyers don’t care what you paid. They care what the home’s worth now. And sellers who anchor to their purchase price instead of market value are sitting longer, cutting prices, and ultimately leaving money on the table.

The good news? There’s still a path forward—if you lead the market, not chase it.

📉 The Numbers Say Balance. Buyers Feel Hesitation.

The Altos index shows Shasta County around 35—still technically a seller’s market, but right on the edge.

Why? Because the psychology is shifting. Buyers see price cuts and more listings, and they’re pausing. They’re unsure whether to wait for better rates, lower prices, or more inventory. And that leads to fewer offers, longer timelines, and more deal fallout.

43% of listings saw price reductions in June. That’s not desperation—it’s realism. Smart sellers are adjusting fast. The ones who wait? They’re the ones getting stale.

🛠️ Ready to Win in This Market?

The market is softer, not broken. Whether you’re buying or selling, the key isn’t waiting—it’s understanding how to act within today’s dynamics.

The winners in this market aren’t waiting—they’re adapting. Let’s get ahead.

➡️ Reply to this email for a custom strategy plan

➡️ Want a pricing breakdown? Reply with your address

Or browse past updates anytime here:

🔗 insider.sellinginshasta.com

Table of Contents

• 😕 Feeling the Shift? You’re Not Alone.

• 📊 A Market in Motion: What May’s Stats Are Really …

• 💰 Bought Before 2020? You’ve Gained More Than You …

• 🏘️ Inventory Trends: What More Homes Mean for Buy …

• 📉 Altos Insights: Why Price Cuts Are Back—and Wha …

• 🧭 So What Now? Let’s Be Real.

😕 Feeling the Shift? You’re Not Alone.

Are you hearing mixed signals about the housing market? Some say we’re on the edge of a crash. Others are calling it a correction—or even a return to normal. So what’s really happening here in Shasta County?

First, let’s clear something up: not all market headlines apply to us. Many media outlets pull data from broad regions or entire MLS zones. What you’ll find in this report is hyperlocal, focused solely on Shasta County.

If you’re a homeowner, investor, or would-be buyer, understanding the real-time data here isn’t just helpful—it’s critical. Why? Because who moves next gets the most advantage. Timing isn’t everything… but it’s a lot.

➡️ Curious how these numbers affect your home’s value?

Reply with your address for a free, hyperlocal price estimate.

📊 A Market in Motion: What May’s Stats Are Really Saying

🏘️ See how inventory just posted its largest jump since 2017—chart below.

For the first time since the pandemic, we saw inventory surge—636 active listings this May vs. 468 a year ago. That’s a 36% year-over-year increase, and the largest shift in inventory since 2017.

But here’s the key: buyers haven’t caught up yet. With only 185 closings in May, our months of supply hit 3.4, up 21%from last year.

That doesn’t signal a crash—it signals balance. A cooling of the ultra-tight frenzy we’ve known for years.

This is the kind of movement that creates new opportunities—but only if you know how to act on them.

💰 Bought Before 2020? You’ve Gained More Than You Think

📈 How much equity have you built? This chart helps paint the picture.

👉Click here to view the interactive map👈

Let’s talk home values.

Despite what national headlines suggest, prices here haven’t fallen off a cliff. Redding’s median price is down only slightly year-over-year, and up at least 30% since before the pandemic—often more, depending on when you purchased. And if you’re thinking about selling, remember: it’s not just about the sale price, but your net gain.

What about those who bought after 2022? You may feel uneasy—but hang tight. The fundamentals of real estate haven’t changed: location, inventory, and time. Values may flatten in the short term, but homeownership remains one of the most resilient wealth builders over time.

📉 Want to dig deeper?

Explore this interactive chart showing home price trends across 3,000+ U.S. counties—including Shasta:

🔗 👉See the full data breakdown here👈

🏘️ Inventory Trends: What More Homes Mean for Buyers & Sellers

📊 Inventory is rising nationwide—but how does Shasta compare?

👉Click here to view the interactive map👈

Inventory is up—both locally and nationally—but this is not a repeat of 2008. In fact, we’re just now reaching pre-2019 levels in many markets.

This shift is healthy, especially after years of pent-up demand. It gives buyers a chance to breathe, negotiate, and make smarter choices. For sellers, it means strategy matters again. The best homes (priced right, staged well, marketed smartly) are still moving quickly.

📩 Want to know how your home stacks up in today’s market?

Reply for a strategy session tailored to your property.

📉 Altos Insights: Why Price Cuts Are Back—and What They Really Mean

🧾 A growing number of price drops—what’s driving them? (Chart below)

Altos Research shows active inventory hovering near 620, with the Market Action Index at 35—still favoring sellers slightly. But 43% of homes saw a price reduction in May. What does that tell us?

Some sellers may be chasing 2021 prices that no longer exist. Others are adjusting more quickly—and winning. If your home has been sitting, the market may be telling you something: price isn’t just about dollars—it’s about psychology.

In a market that takes 63–116 days to move a property, sellers must lead with realism, and buyers with readiness.

🧭 So What Now? Let’s Be Real.

If you’re confused by this market—you’re not alone. But you’re also not stuck. The truth is: this is one of the best times to make a move if you’re strategic.

• Sellers: You haven’t missed the window. You just need the right positioning.

• Buyers: You now have negotiating room and time on your side.

We’re here to guide you through it all—with the data, the strategy, and the experience to help you win in today’s changing market.

➡️ Reply to this email for a custom game plan or home value update.

Let’s make your next move your smartest yet.

The headlines aren’t telling the full story.

Yes — more homes are hitting the market. But buyers? They’re not keeping pace.

That shift matters — whether you’re planning a move this year or just watching.

Let me show you what’s really going on

Table of Contents

• 📦 Inventory Just Hit a 5-Year High

• 📊 There Are 490K More Sellers Than Buyers

• 🔓The “Lock-In” Effect is Slipping

• ⌛️Demand Isn’t Catching Up

• 🔄 This Isn’t a Crash. It’s a Reset

• 🗳️ One-Click Poll:

• 💡 Bottom Line

📦 Inventory Just Hit a 5-Year High

California now has 73,200 active listings — the highest we’ve seen since 2019.

Nationwide, we’ve crossed 1 million homes for sale, a level not reached in years.

So what does that mean for you?

Buyers have more homes to pick from — which is great news.

For sellers though, it also means more competition.

📊 More choices for buyers. More competition for sellers.

👉Click here for an interactive look at US inventory by state👈

📊 There Are 490K More Sellers Than Buyers

In April 2025, the U.S. had 1.94 million homes listed for sale — but just 1.45 million buyers actively shopping.

That’s a gap of nearly 500,000. The largest in over a decade.

Compare that to April 2022 — when we had 436,000 more buyers than sellers.

In just three years, the dynamic has completely flipped.

Today, it’s not buyers fighting to win homes…

It’s sellers working to get noticed.

📉 The market’s leverage has shifted — and both sides need to adapt.

🔓The “Lock-In” Effect is Slipping

For a while, homeowners sat tight.

Why move if you’ve got a 3% mortgage?

But something is changing.

April and May 2025 both saw a notable surge in new listings — with April leading the year so far.

That’s a clear signal: some homeowners are finally making moves, even with higher rates.

It could be seasonal. Or it might be the early signs of a broader shift.

🔓 Sellers are loosening their grip. More listings may follow.

⌛️Demand Isn’t Catching Up

More homes are hitting the market — but buyer activity hasn’t surged to match.

Here’s what we’re seeing on the ground:

• 🕒 Longer days on market

• 💲 More price reductions

• 🤝 Increased buyer leverage

Buyers are cautious. They’re taking their time. And they’re negotiating more.

📉 The market’s moving — but not in a straight line.

 🔄 This Isn’t a Crash. It’s a Reset

Some sellers are still stuck in 2021 expectations — and getting disappointed.

But sellers who lead with the right pricing, smart marketing, and clear presentation?

They’re still winning.

And for buyers? You finally have space to breathe, compare, and negotiate.

🧠 This market rewards strategy — not nostalgia.

🗳️ One-Click Poll:

Are you planning a move in the next 12 months?

Click the button that fits your situation 👇

• 🟢 Yes — I’m Buying

• 🔵 Yes — I’m Selling

• 🟡 Maybe

• ⚪ Just Watching

👉 Your response helps me tailor what you see next.

💡 Bottom Line

This market rewards strategy — not hope or hype.

✅ Sellers: The right price + smart positioning = results

✅ Buyers: Your patience just got its payoff

📞 Thinking of buying or selling? Let’s discuss your strategy in today’s evolving market. Reach out to start the conversation!

Table of Contents

• 🏘️What Today’s Redding Housing Market Is Telling …

• ⚖️Buyers: You’ve Gained Options — Now Comes the Ha …

• 🏡Sellers: Today’s Buyers Are Looking for Certaint …

• ⏳Should You Wait? Not If Life Is Moving Forward

• 🔍What We’re Tracking Next in Redding

In today’s housing market, logic and emotion are colliding.

We’re seeing more second-guessing. More “what ifs.” Buyers walking from deals that once would’ve closed in a heartbeat. Sellers wondering if they missed the peak. And under all that uncertainty? A quiet question:

“Is now still a smart time to make a move?”

The latest data from Zillow and ResiClub answers that question — not with hype, but with clarity.

• 📈 Inventory in Redding is up 49.6% year-over-year — the highest level we’ve seen since 2017.

• 📊 Home prices rose just 0.5% in the past year — a dramatic cooldown compared to pandemic-era growth

• 🔮 Zillow now forecasts a -2.3% decline in home values for Redding by April 2026 

👉Click to view Zillow’s National Outlook 👈

🏘️What Today’s Redding Housing Market Is Telling Us

We’re in a new cycle. One where:

• Prices are stabilizing

• Inventory is expanding

• And both buyers and sellers are being more cautious

👉Click here to see National Price Trends👈

The numbers reflect a market that’s rebalancing, not unraveling. Homes are still selling — but only when priced and positioned with precision.

⚖️Buyers: You’ve Gained Options — Now Comes the Hard Part

Today’s buyers have something they haven’t had in a while: time to think. But with that time comes more doubt — and that’s showing up in the deals.

• More listings = more choice

• Balanced pricing = stronger negotiation opportunities

• But hesitation = more canceled escrows, even over minor inspection issues

👉Click here to see National Inventory Trends👈

If you’re buying a home in Redding, this is your moment to act with intention, not anxiety. Homes priced right are still moving. Confidence matters as much as your budget.

🏡Sellers: Today’s Buyers Are Looking for Certainty — Be the Safe Bet

This isn’t 2021. You can’t rely on multiple offers by default.

With nearly 50% more homes on the market than a year ago, your listing is now one of many — and buyers are nervous. That means your job is to create clarity.

• Clean, staged homes reduce buyer hesitation

• Accurate pricing builds trust

• Thoughtful marketing communicates confidence

In short: don’t just list your home — lead buyers to believe in it.

⏳Should You Wait? Not If Life Is Moving Forward

Some are tempted to wait for the “perfect market.” But perfect rarely comes — and by the time it’s obvious, it’s too late to benefit.

• Rates may adjust, but gradual shifts are more likely than sharp drops

• Inventory could shrink again if sellers sit on the sidelines

• And life milestones — jobs, family changes, goals — don’t wait for market perfection

If your next chapter involves buying or selling, now’s the time to act with clarity, not hesitation.

🔍What We’re Tracking Next in Redding

• Will rising inventory lead to better pricing opportunities for buyers?

• Will cautious buyers return to the market this summer?

• How will national economic trends influence local affordability?

We’ll keep watching the numbers so you can focus on what matters most: making the right move for your life.

📬 Considering a move or just feeling stuck in the “what ifs”?

Let’s talk. A 10-minute conversation could give you the clarity you need — no pressure, just perspective.