Failure is a gift. 

It tells you how much you care about something. 

It measures your ability. 

It gives you the chance to try your hardest. 

It tells you what you need to do to improve & tees up the opportunity to get at it.

It grounds you to reality.

I ran the Wineglass Half earlier this month and missed my goal by a lot. I slowed down around mile 8 and had to stop a couple times at the water stations. It was brutal.

Reality & Self

I love racing. I probably loved it since I was five. I love it more than ever after getting my butt kicked. It is fundamental to me physically and spiritually.

The feeling of being out there on my own and giving everything I got to see what I got. 

It is all signal, it is all truth and it is a portal to self-definition and improvement.

Planning

Excuses are a reflection of a defensive mindset so I am not going there. I have a fair idea of the things I need to improve so I will focus on planning. 

1. I gotta race more. I’m signing up for a half for next October. I need to run them more often than every 3 or 4 years. I might even do one in May & then October.

2.  I’m going to do more long runs over the winter. And some of those will be longer AND faster runs over the winter, spring and summer. I want my body to be more used to racing this distance.

3. I am honing my electrolytes & hydration game. I have been especially slack on the electrolytes. I still think it’s kinda bullshit but I am the chief scientist & the sole subject of this most important continuous experiment. So I will pay more attention to what elite racers do and then experiment more intentionally on myself.

4. I need a good watch. I am not a fan of watches and so I have just used an old one to train. I need a good one with larger and more flexible displays so I’ll embrace the tech for training and racing purposes despite my misgivings.

Process

I am modeling my process here like this,

Failure As Signal > Reality Testing > Planning > Action

This was a valuable exercise so I shared it here.

Have a great weekend everybody.

It’s been six years today since I’ve had a drink or taken drugs.

I never told the story about the last time I got wrecked so here goes.

I met a good buddy of mine in Brooklyn and we were going to see Shabaka Hutchings and his band Sons of Kemet.

I don’t really remember the evening that much. We had a good meal I think, started getting high and drunk before the show, and then we kept partying like we were the rocking horse winner.

After the show we went back to my buddy’s condo and kept partying on the roof. Bong hits and cold beers.

At some point I fell down and hit the back of my head hard. I blacked out and the next thing I remember I was telling paramedics that I didn’t need to go to the ER.

I think they made me sign something not to go.

That was six years ago today on August 6 2019.

I haven’t had alcohol or drugs since which has been great because my life is the best it has ever been. It’s funny how bad things can turn out to be good things.

I already knew that I wasn’t able to handle the partying the way I used to. I was out in Sonoma a month or two earlier and passed out drinking wine but there was a comfortable couch to fall into.

At first I didn't tell this story because I was ashamed about it and then after a while I just didn't think about it that much anymore but a few people have asked me about the last time I used and so that's the story.

It was like the 20th time I quit and it finally stuck so if you are trying, do not give up if you fail. 

If you think you might have a problem with drugs or alcohol, I recommend making an effort to quit today. 

The Anonymous programs are very good and they are everywhere or if you’re not sure what to do just reply to this email with a little bit about what’s going on and I will give you the best feedback I can.

There is an art to quitting. 

I know this is true from my own experiences but it is a little tricky to describe.

It is not about research. It is not about discipline or willpower or dedication. It is not about thoughts or feelings or behaviors. It is not about gradual habit reformation or sudden habit reformation for that matter.

All of these things are good. All of these things are fine.

But I am not talking about the science of quitting or the brute force of quitting or the psychology of quitting or the habitualization of quitting.

I am talking about the art of quitting.

And this is the trickiest thing about quitting to talk about because it can be elusive like the artistic process can be elusive.

Maybe it’s just the thing itself, dumb as old medallions to the thumb, like MacLeish on what good art should be.

The art of quitting is about letting go.

There, I said it. That wasn’t so obscure at all. That’s all I know about it and that might be all there is to know.

We’re not so good at letting go. We hold on tightly to worse than useless things.

Maybe it’s fear. Maybe it’s sunk costs. Maybe it’s cognitive limitations. Maybe it’s dopamine.

It doesn’t matter why but that is addiction in a nut shell - this inability to let go.

I’m running the Wine Glass Half Marathon in October. The last time I ran one was 3 years ago. I was 55 then and finished in 1:59:31 or 9:07/mile.

This time I’ll be 58 and I would like to beat 1:55:00 or 8:46/mile.

I punched my details into ChatGPT and it gave me a training program that looks thorough and rigorous and boring as hell. Here is two weeks of it:

We are all different and for some this might be a great plan but it is not for me.

There is zero chance I could ever follow this and if I had to I wouldn't enjoy training or running the race.

Instead, I’m going to VibeTrain.

VibeTraining is when I have an idea of what it takes to achieve a goal but instead of following a highly structured protocol, I approach the goal more intuitively and base my goal path more on how I feel and what I enjoy rather than a tightly defined protocol.

It is less optimized & more harmonized,

And reminds me of this line from one of my favorite poems by Theodore Roethke:

I wake to sleep, and take my waking slow.

I learn by going where I have to go.

Tenets of VibeTraining

Here are six tenets of VibeTraining. I am just making this up so maybe there will be more at some point or maybe less.

1. It is not optimized. I don’t want to be optimized. I am not training for the Olympics. I am training to feel great and stay healthy for longer. I am training to sustain the training.

2. It stays fun. Some days I will go for a swim or go for a hike or row or do a pull up challenge with my kids instead of doing something that I should do.

I don’t care. I would rather just enjoy the whole thing.

3. You have to have a clue. You probably have to already have an idea what you are doing. I’ve run a few of these before. I’ve been running a lot and have a good base. I am already in tune with how my body feels and when I need to rest. 

If this was my first race, maybe I would need to be more structured.

4. Tuning Body and Spirit. VibeTraining promotes being tuned into my body and spirit. This one is huge. When I wake up in the morning, I notice how I feel and then everything else falls into place. Sometimes I just take a day off. Sometimes I go harder than you’d think because I just feel great.

It is inside out, not outside in.

5. Don't get injured. Since I am riffing off how I feel rather than a protocol, there is much less chance that I will get injured. A lot of times, people get injured because they train too hard and ignore the signals their bodies are sending them. If the protocol says long run, they do it even though maybe they pulled something the day before.

If I wake up one morning and notice a tweak in my leg, I’ll take the day. No big deal.

6. There is still some structure. Even though there is much less structure than with a strict protocol, there still is some structure. 

I am going to do longer and longer runs most Sunday mornings leading up to the week before the race. That’s structure. 

I’m still going to eat clean and go to bed early. That’s structure.

I am still going to taper the week leading into the race. That’s structure.

Have a great day everybody!

I notice that sometimes financial journalists and newsletter writers give good advice at the worst possible time in the stock market.

I saw a few of these finger wagging missives near the bottom of what was a 23% drawdown in the Nasdaq 100 and a 19% drawdown in the S&P 500.

They tell you to manage risk when the market already got killed and you are already stressed out of your mind from losses and uncertainty.

But now that the market has bounced back to within a few percent of all time highs and while that anxiety caused by losses is still fresh in your memory, here’s a strategy you can deploy today when you can and not when you have to so you never have to go through that again.

I remember reading a story that Burton Malkiel tells about J.P. Morgan in his ode to efficient markets A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Malkiel writes,

J. P. Morgan once had a friend who was so worried about his stock holdings that he could not sleep at night. The friend asked, “What should I do about my stocks?” Morgan replied, “Sell down to the sleeping point.”

That’s it. That’s the whole thing. 

Right now, today, decide where your sleeping point might be and then position yourself accordingly.

Years ago, after reading this, I went with 65-70% invested in low cost broad market ETFs for my long-term accounts.

That way, if stocks fall 20%, I’m down 12 MAYBE 13% given that my cash position is earning 4-5%. 

I can sleep with that.

Three additional points:

1.  This not only improves your ability to sleep at night during the volatile times, but it also improves decision making during these periods. You will be much less likely to panic sell at the bottom.

2.  A lot of advisors are reading this and so if you are one you might want to recall which of your clients were most anxious during the recent turbulence and reach out to help them rebalance.

3. This is as much a post about self care and wellness as it is about the stock market. When you experience a lot of stress or if you are having difficulty sleeping, it negatively affects your health in more ways than you might imagine.

It might affect your body weight, nutrition, mood, exercise regimen, attention span, relationships etc…

Back in September I presented Thriving Advisor at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California.

I had no idea they videotaped the session until I saw it pop up on LinkedIn a couple days ago.

Thriving Advisor is an extension of my Fitness Alpha Model that I discussed with Barry Ritholtz here and first wrote about here.

The basic premise of Thriving Advisor is that financial advisors can drastically improve work performance by simply getting healthier given the specific attributes required to be a great financial advisor.

I’m talking about attributes like stress tolerance, executive functioning, decision making, attention span, interpersonal skills, agency, stamina, charisma and more.

These are all things that we know are directly affected by our health from research evidence and experience.

This presentation is especially relevant now given the volatility and uncertainty in the markets. Have a watch…

The Food Pyramid was first published in the US in the early 90s by the USDA.

It recommended 6-11 servings of carbohydrate heavy breads, cereals, rice & pasta daily which we now understand contributes to energy toxicity, a direct correlate to the obesity and diabetes epidemics we are now experiencing in this country.

Nina Teicholz has been a bonafide rock star in the battle to combat the carb heavy Standard American Diet and to clearly communicate the benefits of a Low Carb and ketogenic diets. 

Two weeks ago, Dr. Teicholz & colleagues published a paper in the peer-reviewed journal Nutrients which included a Low-Carb / Ketogenic Food Pyramid.

This is long overdue and it is my duty, and everybody else’s too who is concerned for the metabolic health of people across this nation, to spread this new pyramid far and wide. Please have a look:

The New & Improved Pyramid emphasizes animal protein as well as low carbohydrate fruits and vegetables, while relegating breads, sugar and the like to the Avoid Section.

Importantly, Dr. Teicholz & colleagues also include a literature review section with citations dispelling negative myths spread by special interests about low carb/keto diets such as:

Early Side-Effects - Drink Water

Humans Need for Carbohydrates - No

Saturated Fats Cause Heart Disease - No

Low-Carb as Cure for Type 2 Diabetes - Yes

Definitely Go Read the Paper for Yourself. It is critical, concise and clearly written.

If America is going to get healthy, it’s going to be a grassroots effort. 

We can policy all day long, and hopefully it will help over time, but today, right now, this moment, it will be up to individuals like you and me, to get healthy and to set great examples.

You and me and then our families and our neighbors and their families etc etc.

I already see the roots of a grassroots movement in individuals who inspire me personally. A couple examples…

Dr. Tro Kalayjian got himself healthy and then built Toward Health which has helped countless people.

Toward just published a study showing the effectiveness of lifestyle change for sustained weight loss, improved metabolic health, and deprescription, a term you will never see the global pharmaceutical complex use on the commercials they run 24/7/365 ad nauseam.

And Chris Cornell who lost 80 pounds and kept it off the old fashioned way, by eating nourishing food and moving his body.

Today, there are two movements happening simultaneously in the US. The first is mainstream. The majority of adults in this country are overweight or obese and have poor metabolic health. They are eating nutrient poor foods and they are not moving their bodies enough.

Then, there is this glorious countertrend, this much smaller but growing grassroots movement of people getting healthy and inspiring others to get healthy like Tro and Chris.

It’s an asymmetrical bimodal distribution that looks like this:

Role Modeling is one of the most powerful forces in the universe, though it is grossly undervalued.

People, all of us, are just looking to be inspired by those who are doing great things. We are hardwired to adopt behaviors we find appealing from those we admire. This is Social Learning Theory 101. 

We behave like people we admire and when we get healthy people begin to admire us. It’s a virtuous cycle.

Our kids admire us, our friends and colleagues admire us, other family members admire us, our neighbors admire us and they are influenced.

I know this from experience.

I got myself healthy and then people began reaching out to ask me what I was doing and I would just tell them.

Yep. Get yourself healthy again. One person. You. 

Not only will you feel great, perform better at life and stay active longer into the future, but you will be an integral part of this urgent countertrend!

Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse featured a whole bunch of Spidermen convening from parallel universes to save the world!

A few weeks back, Google announced a quantum computing breakthrough.

Google’s new chip Willow solved a problem in less than 5 minutes that would take the world’s fastest computers 10 septillion years to solve.

I don’t understand it, but I know it’s fascinating - and what is most fascinating to me was this tidbit about the possible reality of a multiverse summarized by Matt Swayne in Quantum Insider:

Neven suggests the Multiverse might be real. 

I Love It!

The Multiverse, for those not familiar, is this idea that there are parallel universes existing simultaneously. 

It is most well known from science fiction.

If you ever saw the wonderful movie, Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, you’ll be familiar with this concept. Above is a photo from the movie with seven different Spidermen from seven parallel universes converging on an important mission to save the world.

It’s nice to hear these genius physicists suspect that the multiverse is real, but I have known this to be the case for quite some time.

Odds Likely Exceeding 99%

Almost everybody reading this is going to wake up one year from today on February 6, 2026. You’re going to wake up, take a pee, brush your teeth and put on some clothes the same way you did this morning.

That day is almost as real as today is real. It just hasn’t happened yet. 

Sure, you could get hit by a bus, but the strong probability remains, you will still be alive one year from today.

I looked it up just to make sure. I Googled,

I’m a 57 year old male non-smoker. What is the probability I will still be alive one year from today?

And here’s what I got:

Google Gemini is telling me there is a greater than 99% chance I will still be alive one year from today. That’s good to hear!

The odds are very high for me anyway. And even if you are older than me the odds are still high for you. I looked up 65 year-old male non-smoker and got a greater than 95% chance.

So the future you is almost as real as the present you reading this newsletter right now.  

There’s also future you’s waking up a week from today, a month from today,  5 years from today, ten years from today, etc etc. 

There’s a lot of these future you’s!

Maybe they’re not 100% real, but in many cases their realness likely exceeds 99%.

The Multiverse Is Real!

Given all of these selves spread out simultaneously over time, The Multiverse is looking real real!

We can go so far as to imagine our present selves having a conversation with our future selves.

There were many days when my future self would have loved to berate the past me about all of the drinking and smoking I was doing.

And I’m certain my 10 years from today self is pleased that I got my health game together finally. I’ve had the conversations…

Thanks Phil, for finally getting your shit together, my 10 years from today self has said.

You’re welcome 67 year old Phil & thank you for your patience! I’ve replied, I was a work in progress for a minute there I know.

I have these conversations with my future selves and so it is nice to know that these future selves are real, that my hypothesis is supported by quantum physicists and that I’m not crazy.

I have these conversations when I am at important moments in my life and I encourage my clients to do it too sometimes.

We can vividly imagine the future self we aspire to be at a specific pivotal moment down the road and then have a conversation with them.

There is flexibility with regard to our future selves. We can help determine their state through our actions today.

Let me just say that again.

We can help determine who we are in the future by our actions today.

Have a great day everybody!

I used to think I knew a lot, but over the years I began to realize I actually knew very little.

At first, this realization seemed terrible, because I’d studied a lot of stuff and lived many years and yet I didn’t know much.

But it turned out to be a blessing, because, as I realized that I didn’t know much, the world became more simple and straightforward. 

What’s more, the deep things I thought I knew back in the day I now realize were mostly a bunch of horseshit. 

The world is not deep or complicated. The world is simple and straightforward even though we shroud it in false complexities. 

This is most true when we know who we are because we can embrace reality over the fantasies or appearances we cling to when we are pretending to know things we don’t.

Stupid Simplicity Doctrine

I decided to write this out to make it clear in my head and as a reminder if I ever lose touch with myself or begin to again think deeply about things.

I call this Stupid Simplicity Doctrine and it has four elements:

1. The universe is simple & straightforward.

2. This is especially true when we know who we are.

3. Complexity is mostly horseshit.

4. If you drop an apple, it falls to the ground. 

I find that anything can be broken down into four elements & stated simply in a few words.

I stole this concept from the Ancient Greeks who broke the physical universe down into four elements.

1. Earth

2. Air

3. Fire &

4. Water

They did a great job.

I suppose if I was a chemist, I might need a longer list of physical elements, but I am not a chemist.

Four Elements of Health

My focus is usually health and so this was the first thing to which I applied Stupid Simplicity Doctrine.

These are the four elements of health:

1. Eat Real Food

2. Move Your Body

3. Prioritize Sleep & Rest

4. Love Your People & Let Yourself Be Loved

That’s about it. 

Sure, there are details, and you can go as deep into the weeds as you want, but if you use these elements as a compass, you will usually find your way.

Many of you reading this today are familiar with the idea of Seasonality when it comes to the stock market.

For those not familiar, markets have seasonal tendencies that often play out but not always. For example, November through January tends to be the most bullish consecutive three month period of the year.

Here is a chart from page 149 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac owned and edited by my pal Jeff Hirsch. Jeff is the bonafide ax of stock market seasonality.

On a monthly basis and over the last 75 years, stocks average a 4.4% gain over this 3 month period. Not too shabby.

Further, it is when the market does not follow the seasonal tendency that we should really pay attention.

There are also seasonal tendencies when it comes to body weight and we are right now entering the most bullish period of the year for weight gain.

From Thanksgiving through New Years Day adults in the US tend to gain more weight than they gain for the entire year. 

Here is a chart I have posted before that was originally published by Helander et al in the New England Journal of Medicine that shows the seasonal weight change tendencies over the course of the year in the US, Japan, and Germany,

Notice, in the US, how weight gain begins to increase just before Thanksgiving and runs through Christmas and into the new year.

Similar to the market commentary above, personal weight change is the most meaningful when it does not follow seasonal tendencies.

In other words, if you can keep your body weight flat or even lose a little weight during this weight gain season, then you are really onto something!

So, here are some tips to buck this seasonal weight gain tendency. I first published this section in a post from a couple years back called The Seasonality of Weight Gain and I only edited it slightly...

Winners Average Losers

Legendary hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, once famously said, 

Losers average losers.

He was saying that losing investors buy more of a losing investment as it falls.

I’m turning that one upside down. 

When it comes to weight, we want to do the exact opposite.

We want to press losers!

So here are a few tactics that you can employ to counteract the weight gaining effects of the winter holidays?

Pick and choose. One or a few of them might help.

1. The Right Foot Rule

The Right Foot Rule says start the day super healthy. For me, this means 2 things.

1. Getting a run or a workout in before the festivities begin, and

2. Making sure the first thing you eat is healthy and satiating. This might mean having a bunch of eggs before the party or maybe you go in hard on the turkey before having anything else on Thanksgiving.

2. The Basmadjian Gambit

My pal Vic taught me this one.  

He tucks a bar of Lindt 90% Dark Chocolate into his jacket pocket before leaving for celebrations where he knows there will be decadent desserts.

Then, he eats a few pieces of the dark chocolate instead of going hog wild on pecan pie a la mode.

Simple genius.

3. Limit Drinking

I get it. Your relatives drive you to the bottle. Whatever.

Still, alcohol is not as cool as it used to be before we understood how bad even moderate usage over time is for our minds and bodies.

If you are still not aware, you can watch Huberman break it down chapter and verse.

If you can set a limit on how much you will consume, if any, and then stick to that limit, you will sidestep a load of empty and harmful calories.

If you can’t set a limit, well, that tells you something.

4. The Trosette Maneuver

Tro and Rosette are the low carb It Couple.

Tro is a doctor who lost 150 lbs and now helps people from all over the country lose weight and gain health, while Rosette has built a business with her sister selling low carb baking mixes that are pretty tasty.

The Pistachio Shortbread Mix is my personal favorite.

Together, I call them Trosette, like how we called Ben and Jennifer, Bennifer. lol!

They have a great hack that works for the holidays.

Tro says that if you haven’t beaten something yet, then replace it with versions that are less damaging. So if you’re going to eat dessert, have something with less sugar and less carbs.

Meanwhile, Rosette makes dessert mixes with less sugar and less carbs. Perfect complements!

Berries are also great, btw.

5. The Morning After Thrill

Make early plans for the morning after the holiday.

That way, you’ll have to set a bit of a limit for yourself on how hard you can go, because you know you have to wake up early. 

We’re planning to wake up early on Black Friday, head into the city, and visit the Met.

Generalizability

After you’ve used any of these tactics once, you can begin to apply the ones that work best for you in other situations.

I’m big on the Right Foot Rule. The first thing I eat pretty much everyday is a lot of high protein food. This keeps me out of trouble most days.

If you are able to not gain weight from Thanksgiving through New Years, you are setting a great precedent for 2025.

Have a great holiday everybody!