Quintessential Thought

In our series about responses to change, we’ve looked at The Spark, The Shield, The Anchor, and The Microscope. This week, we turn our attention to…

The Low Battery: Exhaustion

Sometimes, people respond to change with a gradual decline, their energy reserves depleted, their batteries running low. This manifests as decreased productivity, an uptick in errors, a creeping cynicism, and unmistakable signs of disengagement. The spark that once fueled their contributions dims, leaving behind a sense of weariness and detachment.

The Upside: This response, while concerning, serves as a crucial signal, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable practices and emphasizing the often-overlooked importance of well-being. It shines a light on the human cost of relentless change, forcing a re-evaluation of workloads and expectations. It reminds us that people are not machines, and that long-term success requires a foundation of rest and recovery.

The Challenges: If left unaddressed, this exhaustion leads to a cascading effect of decreased morale, a rise in turnover, and a significant decline in overall team performance that erodes their collective resilience. The very fabric of the team begins to fray, threatening the success of the change initiative and the organization as a whole.

Leading through It: As a leader, one of your primary jobs is to offer focus, inviting people to set their attention on the most important outcomes. Anything more than temporary exhaustion can indicate your people are overwhelmed or have change fatigue, and you may need to narrow the focus for them to be able to recharge and make progress on the most important changes.

It is also important to celebrate and acknowledge progress so that their activities are connected to a larger purpose and they can visualize the success. Ultimately, leading through exhaustion requires a shift from pushing harder to working smarter, prioritizing sustainability over short-term gains, and remembering that the human element is the organization's most valuable asset.

Quotes

"Exhaustion isn't laziness; it's a signal that the engine is overheating." - Dr. Anya Sharma

"The human cost of change is real. Ignore it, and you'll pay a higher price." - Isabella Rossi

"Focus is the antidote to overwhelm. Leaders, provide it." - Professor Liam O'Connell

Quick Step

Dedicate a few minutes in your next meeting or one-on-one for an "energy audit," asking others to rate their current energy level (1-5) and share why they picked that number.

Question

How do you model sustainable work practices for your team?

Low Battery icon created by Smashicons - Flaticon

Professional Scrum Product Owner, May 5-8

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Quintessential Thought

In our series about responses to change, we’ve looked at The Spark, The Shield, and The Anchor. This week, we turn our attention to…

The Microscope: Examination

Sometimes, people respond to change with a relentless stream of questions, dissecting every detail under the microscope of their analysis. They proactively identify potential issues and alternative solutions, driven by a deep desire for optimization and refinement. This constant pursuit of perfection can manifest in a barrage of "what if" scenarios and suggestions for improvement, often coming across as critical or overly analytical.

The Upside: This response drives thorough analysis and robust problem-solving, uncovering potential risks and opportunities that others might miss. They are the early detectors of friction points, the architects of contingency plans, and the champions of continuous improvement. By catching issues early, they can prevent costly mistakes and elevate the overall quality of the change implementation.

The Challenges: While their insights are invaluable, an unchecked examination can slow down decision-making and implementation, leading to analysis paralysis. The sheer volume of details can overwhelm the team, distracting them from the overall goal and creating a sense that their work is never good enough. Their questioning, if perceived as criticism, can lead to conflict and tension, hindering collaboration and slowing progress.

Leading through It: Acknowledge and value their sharp insights, while also establishing clear boundaries for questioning and analysis. Two helpful types of boundaries are prioritization and action. 

Prioritizing the questions and issues helps bring focus on the most critical areas, relieving them of a full-scale, in-depth analysis of everything.

The boundary of action makes it clear that some progress (even if it’s small) needs to be taken in a specific time period. Using the Hypothesis Template, channel their energy into structured problem-solving sessions and experiments, providing them with a framework that uses action to learn more than analysis alone.

Our facilitation series also lays out the critical need for diverging and the shift to converging in order to make effective decisions.

Quotes

"The devil's in the details, but so is the divine." - Isabella Rossi

"Analysis without action is a beautiful, useless map." - Robert Vance

"Analysis paralysis is real; that's why we need boundaries." - Raj Patel

Quick Step

In the next discussion with a Microscope, use the facilitation steps of Context, Diverging, Converging, and Action.

Question

How do you distinguish between constructive critical analysis and potentially wasteful questions?

Microscope icon created by jojooid - Flaticon

Professional Scrum Product Owner, May 5-8

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Quintessential Thought

In our series about responses to change, we’ve looked at The Spark and The Shield. This week, we turn our attention to…

The Anchor: Resistance

Encountering visible resistance to our ideas can be very frustrating, as it seems to slow progress and create roadblocks to success. As a leader, a helpful perspective is curiosity about why the person is actively resisting.

There are many possible motivations, but the two we’ve seen most often are:

1. Fear of loss. Changes can threaten things that people want to protect.

2. Mourning. Changes can force people to face that their hopes may not be realized.

Fear or mourning can be about several things, including job security, autonomy, familiarity, or competence. While the shield response (passivity) adds weight to the “stay the same” side of things, the anchor response (resistance) is more active, like applying the brakes to the change.

The Upside: The resistors will highlight friction points and pitfalls in bringing your change to life. The things they fear or are mourning are signals that you can use to gain a better understanding of the implications of the change.

The Challenge: If resistors don’t feel heard, they can shift to even more challenging approaches, like undermining or passive-aggressive behavior. This can quickly spread to others, putting the brakes on the change effort and increasing tension and conflict within the team.

Leading through It: Assume resistors have some important concerns; using empathetic listening skills, help them articulate their concerns in helpful ways, recognizing the emotional aspects of change and the likelihood of neurobiological flooding. 

Involve them in the change, partnering to create and run experiments so they have buy-in and clarity of action. Stay connected with them so they continue to be heard and you get their insights to lead more effectively.

If, after working to understand and address their concerns, they are still actively resisting the change, it may be most appropriate to find a place where their skills are needed that isn’t affected by this change.

Quotes

"Resistance is a signal, not a roadblock. It tells us where the real fears lie." - Dr. Evelyn Holt

"Loss is a heavy burden. Resistance is often its cry." - Marcus Chen

"Active resistance is a call for understanding, not a declaration of war." - Aisha Khan

Quick Step

Offer a "What If" session with a resistor, creating a safe space to explore potential negative outcomes of the change.

Question

How are you addressing the emotional side of the change you’re leading?

Anchor icon created by Mayor Icons - Flaticon

Professional Scrum Product Owner, May 5-8

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Quintessential Thought

In our series about responses to change, last week we covered The Spark. This week, we turn our attention to…

The Shield: Passivity

Sometimes, people react to change by withdrawing, becoming passive, or exhibiting signs of fear. They may avoid taking initiative, hesitate to speak up with either support or concerns, and appear disengaged from the process.

As a change leader, it can be frustrating to see people not taking responsibility for their part in the change. If we can look at this response as the person putting their shield up to prevent overwhelm or fear, it can help us engage with them in more helpful ways.

The Upside: This response can provide a moment for cautious reflection, preventing hasty decisions and highlighting potential risks that more enthusiastic individuals might overlook. It can also signal areas where more support and clarity are needed. In many cases, once their reasons for passivity are addressed, they will merge into the change movement.

The Challenges: While it might seem like a simple lack of enthusiasm, this response carries significant challenges. People who retreat into passivity can become a silent barrier to progress, inadvertently blocking feedback and innovation. They may unintentionally spread a sense of helplessness, and others might take their silence as implicit dissent. 

Leading through It: Those who retreat into passivity benefit from a supportive approach. Focus on building trust and creating a safe space for them to express their concerns by using the superpower of listening.

Work with them to break down the change into small, manageable steps that can overcome fear and analysis paralysis, emphasizing the purpose. Sometimes, the most effective way to unlock action is by making specific requests. Stay connected with them, providing consistent reassurance and highlighting incremental progress, so they can gradually see the benefits and regain a sense of agency.

Quotes

"The shield of silence is heavy; it blocks both pain and progress." - Dr. Anya Sharma

"A specific request is a bridge over the chasm of hesitation." - Kai Nakamura

"Understanding the root of inaction is the key to unlocking potential." - Maria Sanchez

Quick Step

Reach out to one person who isn’t taking action, seeking to understand their perspective on the change.

Question

What are some reasons you have been passive in change?

Shield icon created by Freepik - Flaticon

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Apr 14-17

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Quintessential Thought

Our environment drives constant change, but success hinges on understanding the human response. Our previous series about change explored leading through change; this series moves beyond simplistic "support vs. resist" views, offering several types of responses and ways to navigate them. Mastering these dynamics builds resilience and high-performance.

The first type of response we’ll explore is…

The Spark: Excitement

Sometimes, people are excited by the change and enthusiastically adopt it. Those who respond this way will often be vocal about their support and also provide proactive suggestions and improvements.

The Upside: This response provides a spark of excitement at the beginning of a change that fuels rapid innovation - they’re getting the flywheel turning by being early adopters. This can accelerate the change and invite others to join in the change effort.

The Challenge: While you’d think this kind of response would be all sunshine and rainbows, there are some challenges, too. People who are excited by the change can overlook potential risks and rush to implement the change prematurely. Some can unintentionally exclude dissenting voices. Others may take the initiative to mold the change into something different that matches their desires.

Leading through It: The excited early adopters are already vocal advocates for the change, so it’s important that they’re aligned with your perspective. Work with them to clarify the vision, purpose, and boundaries of the change. Collaborate with them to create experiments so they have buy-in and clarity of action. Stay connected with them so they continue to be inspired, see the positive effects of the change, and continue to support it.

Quotes

"The future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious." - John Sculley

"The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new." - Dan Millman

"Enthusiasm is one of the most powerful engines of success. When you do a thing, do it with all your might." - Ralph Waldo Emerson

Quick Step

Identify three people who you can see are excited by a change you’re introducing and ask them what they’re excited by.

Question

When have you been excited by a change?

Fire icon created by Smashicons - Flaticon

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Apr 14-17

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Quintessential Thought

We’re concluding our series about facilitation, walking through the four phases of a collaborative conversation.

After settling the Context, Diverging to explore options, and Converging to narrow the possibilities, it’s time to take Action.

After narrowing down the options, it’s time to select the most potent action to take. Often, this is a good time to revisit the goal from the Context phase to test whether the proposed action will make meaningful progress in that direction.

One aspect of the Action phase is clarifying the selected action. At this point, you are facilitating the group having a collective and shared understanding of the steps that will be taken, who will do the work, and when it will happen. We strongly recommend using the Change Hypothesis to encapsulate all the critical elements of the action. If more clarity or creativity is needed, consider briefly revisiting one or more of the earlier phases (Context, Diverge, Converge). 

We wouldn’t be good agilists if we didn’t create an empirical learning loop! 😀 This is the time for the team to plan when and how they will revisit the selected action to identify how effective it was, learn, and plan their next steps using the same 4 phases: Context, Diverge, Converge, and Action.

Quotes

“A group facilitator needs: self-awareness (being with yourself), awareness of others (being with others) and commitment to the group fulfilling its purposes” - Dale Hunter

"An idea without action is merely speculation." - H. Jackson Brown Jr.

"Action is the foundational key to all success." - Pablo Picasso

Quick Step

Use the Change Hypothesis to help a team gain clarity on an action they’re planning to take.

Question

What has been the most effective way you’ve seen a group decide to take action?

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Mar 31 - Apr3

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Quintessential Thought

We’re continuing in our series about facilitation, walking through the four phases of a collaborative conversation.

After the alignment of the first phase, Context and Diverging, it’s time to Converge as we navigate toward a decision.

We suspended judgment of ideas in the Diverge phase; we need to bring it back in the Converge phase, narrowing down the options.

If we jump into convergence too soon, we risk shutting down the free flow of creative ideas from the Diverge phase. Yet, if we never shift to Converge, we won’t make a decision, try an action, learn, and make progress. Observing and sensing the best moment to make the shift is part of your role as a facilitator.

Here are some practical ideas for facilitating the convergence phase:

• Dot voting

• Focus mapping, mapping the value and feasibility of the ideas

• 35 game

• 25/10 crowd sourcing

• Min specs

In the end, the team will often discover a simple next step is the most effective one, as it enables quick action and a short learning loop.

With these tools in your facilitator's toolkit, you're well-equipped to guide your next collaborative session through the converge phase. By thoughtfully applying these methods, you'll empower your team to not only choose the best path forward but also to be invested in its success.

In our next newsletter, we'll delve into the final stage: Action.

Quotes

"When you have too many top priorities, you have no top priorities." - Stephen Covey

"If you chase two rabbits, you will lose them both." - Russian Proverb

"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication." - Leonardo da Vinci

Quick Step

Using one of the convergence techniques above, guide a team to narrow their options while making a decision.

Question

Think of a time when have you experienced an excellent convergent conversation. What made it so effective?

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Mar 31 - Apr3

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Quintessential Thought

We’re continuing in our series about facilitation, walking through the four phases of a collaborative conversation.

After the alignment of the first phase, Context, we shift into the Diverge phase.

Here, we collaboratively explore the possibilities, discovering options for “whats” and “hows” to make progress toward our shared goal. As you can imagine from the word “diverge,” the discussion can vary widely and include many options that could conflict with each other. This may feel a bit messy - it’s part of the creative process.

To diverge well, ideas need to be invited and allowed, even ones that might be unfeasible, expensive, or undesired. If ideas are discarded or eliminated in the diverge phase, the creative free flow of ideas is short-circuited, which will result in poorer options and results. (Hang on, though…we’ll reduce options in the next phase, Converge.)

Here are several practical ideas to encourage divergence:

• Brainstorming principles and practices

• The “Yes, and” practice that builds upon others’ ideas

• Mind mapping, visualizing connected ideas

• Silent sticky storming, inviting introverted thinkers’ and quieter participants’ ideas to come out

• 1-2-4-All, bringing energy to the conversation while balancing introverted and extroverted thinkers

Why do this if someone already knows the best solution? If we’re in complexity, that solution may not actually be the best; an alternative may be better, or an improvement could be offered. If we stay in either-or thinking (do this option or don’t), we will tend to make poorer decisions. (For more decision-making tactics like this, check out our newsletter Better Decisions > Perfect Decisions.)

Additionally, if we’re trying to employ the multiplying power of teams, collectively exploring (and selecting, the next phase) a solution is a strong way to build collective ownership. Diverging as a team is a tremendous way to build the team’s self-organizing muscle as they learn how to make decisions together.

Quotes

"To have a great idea, have a lot of them." - Thomas Edison

"Divergent thinking is a distinct form of higher-order thinking that can be taught to all ages of students." - Dan Rothstein 

"None of us is as smart as all of us." - Ken Blanchard

Quick Step

Select one of the divergence practices above and try it the next time a group of people is trying to make a decision.

Question

What is the cost when this divergent process is skipped or interrupted?

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Mar 17-20

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Quintessential Thought

We’re continuing in our series about facilitation, walking through the four phases of a collaborative conversation.

The first phase is Context. This is the foundation on which the rest of the collaborative interaction rests - it’s as critical as the wheels on a car being aligned before a road trip.

The questions to be answered in this phase are:

• What is our goal?

• Who needs to collaborate to achieve it?

You’re aiming for agreement on the desired outcome with buy-in from the participants and a collective ownership of the process to get there.

The tools for this phase depend on the situation:

• If these questions have already been answered previously, they may just need to be re-stated for a reminder and opportunity to refine.

• Other times, there is critical exploration here and you may need to facilitate through all four phases on these two questions before moving forward with the four phases to address the goal.

The main pitfall in this phase is to assume alignment and buy-in. We can unintentionally facilitate this by not soliciting feedback, declaring the answers, or presenting the answers in a way that isn’t easily editable. This is why writing them on a whiteboard is very helpful - the medium implies that it’s editable and open for discussion.

When there are latent reservations or confusion about the goal of the collaboration, they often come out during later phases. When you observe this, you can steer the conversation back to the Context phase to explore it further before proceeding.

Once the foundation of the Context is established, we can move onto exploring the options in the Diverge phase. This will be the focus of our next newsletter.

Quotes

"A goal properly set is halfway reached." — John Doerr

"Building a visionary company requires one percent vision and 99 percent alignment." — Jim Collins and Jerry Porra

“When you begin with a sense of deep alignment and have a nuanced understanding of, and empathy for, the other people involved, you will not only avoid arguments but also you’ll be able to see opportunities previously invisible. When you reduce unnecessary interpersonal friction, you unlock the true potential of teams.” — Alexandra Jamieson and Bob Gower

Quick Step

Before diving into the next collaborative conversation, ask someone to re-state the goal or desired outcome of the conversation.

Question

What costs have you observed from team members not being aligned on a goal or desired outcome?

Professional Scrum Product Owner, Mar 17-20

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Quintessential Thought

Continuing in our series about facilitation, we’re turning our attention to facilitation in team conversations. When a team needs to work together to achieve a common goal - whether working on a piece of product development, addressing a process inefficiency, or deciding where to eat lunch - effective conversation is a key component of their collaboration.

And good collaborative conversations don’t happen by accident. There’s a shape to these conversations, a lightweight structure that can give you some guidelines as you help a team navigate collaboration:

• Context - Agree on the goal and need for collaboration

• Diverge - Explore the challenges and opportunities

• Converge - Narrow down the options

• Action - Select the next actions

Each of these phases has a distinct purpose and a set of tools that we’ll explore in the upcoming newsletters. Together, they increase the confidence and engagement of the team as they work toward their goal. Skipping or rushing any phase puts the overall goal at risk as the buy-in of team members wanes.

Remember the definition of facilitate: to make something easier to achieve. Recognizing and using these phases will help you facilitate (make it easier to achieve) the team’s next step and, ultimately, the goal.

Quotes

“In the hands of a competent facilitator, a well-designed process sets the stage and supports the group as it explores options, navigates conflict and reaches decisions.” — Beatrice Briggs

“The right questions for the right people at the right time are at the heart of…effective and dynamic facilitation.” — Dorothy Strachan

“Facilitation is an improvisatory act within an agreed and negotiated structure” — Dale Hunter

Quick Step

In the next collaborative conversation, observe where the four phases are happening or are skipped. What are the indicators? What is the effect?

Question

Which of the phases resonates with you the most?

Advanced Product Owner, Mar 3-6

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Quintessential Thought

"Facilitate" – it's a word I love, precisely because it's both potent and misinterpreted. Many equate facilitation with simply running a meeting. While that's one application, the true scope of facilitation is much broader and more impactful.

At its core, facilitation is about making something easier. That "something" could be a process, a desired outcome, or even a conversation. Before diving into how to facilitate, we need to ask ourselves two fundamental questions:

1. What am I trying to make easier...and for whom?

2. How would I know if it is easier for them?

Over the next few newsletters, we'll focus specifically on facilitating conversations. Why? Because conversations are the lifeblood of teams. They're the building blocks of collaboration, the engine of progress, and the foundation upon which shared understanding is built. Mastering the art of facilitating conversations is essential for any team looking to thrive.

Quotes

“The primary role of the group facilitator is to focus the group on its purpose and act as a guardian of the group culture.” — Dale Hunter

“Effective group facilitation is an artful dance requiring rigorous discipline. The role of the facilitator offers an opportunity to dance with life on the edge of the sword, to be present and aware, to be with and for people in a way that cuts through to what enhances and facilitates life. A facilitator is a peaceful warrior.” — Hunter, Bailey & Tailor

“The facilitator’s job is to support everyone to do their best thinking and practice.” — Kaner

Quick Step

Start a facilitation journal, identifying the situations where you facilitate conversations. Note techniques used, challenges encountered, and your observations.

Question

Think about the best facilitation you’ve experienced. What made it so effective?

Advanced Product Owner, Mar 3-6

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ation

Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about how to improve forecasting for agility. We’ve explored three of the four core practices: re-forecasting, reducing precision to increase accuracy, and bracketing forecasts.

Our final practice is to use the time horizon to adjust your approach. You don’t need to be Dr. Who or Marty McFly to do this - no unusual time travel is necessary. 🙂

Put simply, you’ll adjust your use of precision and bracketing based on how close the event you’re predicting is.

• If the event is far away, an agile forecast is less precise and the brackets are farther apart.

• As the event draws nearer, you can refine your forecasts by increasing the precision and narrowing the bracketed range of possible outcomes.

We’re talking about the cone of uncertainty, which acknowledges that the things that are closest to this moment have less variability and the things that are furthest from this moment have the most variability. When drawn in a diagram, it looks like a cone with the variability depicted as lines diverging from the current moment. You’ve seen it used in weather forecasting of storms as the forecasters address the inherent and increasing uncertainty.

Public Domain image by NHC

Here are a couple of examples:

• For a forecast 12 months away, the precision would be low and the bracketing wide. So, the scope goal would be at a high level and outcome-oriented, the budget could be bracketed at 25 to 50% on each side of the median, and the schedule might be expressed in months or quarters.

• For a forecast of the next two weeks (like a Sprint-length in Scrum), the precision would be higher and the bracketing narrower. The scope goal would be more detailed, expressing the outputs that are likely to be created to achieve a specific outcome, the budget could be bracketed at 5 to 10% on each side of the median, and the schedule might be locked in at two weeks.

Adapting your forecasting approaches based on the time horizon will help you increase agility while communicating clearly.

Quotes

“We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.” — Nate Silver

"The future is always uncertain, but the seeds of the future are always in the present." — Stephen R. Covey

"Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you little about the future." — Paul Samuelson

Quick Step

For your next forecast, adjust the precision and brackets based on the time horizon.

Question

When might a time horizon have helped a forecast you’ve given or seen?

Advanced Product Owner, Mar 3-6

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Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about how to improve forecasting for agility. We’ve explored two of the four core practices: re-forecasting and reducing precision to increase accuracy.

Today, we turn our attention to bracketing.

I’m borrowing the term “bracketing” from photography, when we take multiple pictures of the same thing with different exposure settings. We end up with an over-exposed photo, an under-exposed photo, and a middle-of-the-road photo. Combining these photos gives us a clearer picture of things that might otherwise be hidden in the shadows or highlights.

Likewise, in forecasting, one way to increase agility and communicate more clearly is to bracket your forecasts. Give multiple forecasts that are based on probability or likelihood.

Here are a couple of examples:

• Our best case is to deliver in 30 days, our most likely forecast is to deliver in 45 days, and our worst case is to deliver in 80 days.

• We’re 40% likely to deliver in 30 days, 65% likely to deliver in 45 days, and 90% likely to deliver in 80 days.

While these examples are forecasting the schedule, you can use bracketing as you’re forecasting scope and budget as well.

No matter how you bracket, you need to use actual, historical data to make an empirical forecast. Most teams use velocity, throughput, or cycle time to accomplish this.

Another tremendous tool to help you bracket your forecasts is Monte Carlo simulation. After entering your parameters and historical data into a Monte Carlo tool, thousands of simulations are run with variations on your parameters. The resulting distribution of results will give you the likelihood of various outcomes.

One of the most powerful effects of bracketing your forecasts is how it changes the conversation with stakeholders. I have often seen resistance melt away when introducing stakeholders to bracketed forecasts. The conversation changes from tension to curiosity, and the situation becomes more collaborative.

Quotes

“You should never—and I mean never—communicate a forecast that does not include at least two things: a date range and a probability for that date range occurring.” — Daniel Vacanti

“Past performance speaks a tremendous amount about one's ability and likelihood for success.” — Mark Spitz

"Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise" — John Tukey

Quick Step

Where have you seen bracketed forecasts used effectively?

Question

Identify the data and calculations you need in order to provide a bracketed forecast.

Advanced Product Owner, Mar 3-6

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ation

Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about how to improve forecasting for agility. Our first newsletter addressed balances in agile forecasting. Now, we turn to the first of four core practices that will help you put it into practice. Last week, we explored the first of four core practices: re-forecasting.

Our next practice is this: Decrease precision to increase accuracy.

The more precise and detailed our forecasts are, the less likely they are to be accurate. For example, if I forecast that something will happen on June 17th at 3:25 US Eastern, I have 60 seconds to be correct, which will be hard in an unpredictable environment. If I predict it will happen on June 17th, I have 24 hours. If I predict it will happen in June, I have 30 days.

When you decrease the precision and detail of forecasts, you open up space for learning and adaptation. That’s agility.

Across the three typical elements of forecasts, it could look like this:

• Schedule - Forecast schedules in larger time blocks: months, quarters, or time ranges rather than days or weeks.

• Budget - Forecast budgets at a higher level: team(s) rather than individual projects.

• Scope - Forecast with less detail: focus on outcomes instead of outputs or activities. Also, use relative estimation, t-shirt sizing, and the Fibonacci sequence to reduce the detail in estimates.

All of these are dimmer switches you can adjust based on the situation. Perhaps there’s a reason you need a more precise schedule (like a Sprint Goal for 2-weeks); try pairing it with an outcome-oriented scope (like a Sprint Goal).

While decreasing precision can improve accuracy, over-simplification can lead to a lack of insight and learning. It's crucial to find the right balance or each situation so you can adapt AND learn.

Quotes

“Less is more.” — Ludwig Mies van der Rohe

"Make things as simple as possible, but not simpler." — Albert Einstein

"Predictions are difficult, especially about the future." — Niels Bohr

Quick Step

For an upcoming forecast, run an experiment to adjust the precision of one of the 3 forecasting elements.

Question

When have you seen reduced forecasting precision increase learning and adaptability?

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about how to improve forecasting for agility. Take a look at last week’s newsletter about what we need to balance in agile forecasting. Now, we turn to the first of four core practices that will help you put it into practice.

No matter which of the other upcoming practices you use, put them inside this container: re-forecasting.

This is a fundamental shift from traditional, long-term, locked-in forecasting that is built for more predictable environments. Within a locked-in forecast, your available agility is nearly non-existent. In agility, forecasts are revisited repeatedly with empirical data and new learnings. 

There are two keys to doing re-forecasting well.

1) Help others make the shift. 

Some people may be used to and comfortable with traditional forecasting…and, therefore, skeptical and uncomfortable with re-forecasting. Often, this is embedded into the culture of your team, department, or organization. Employ effective change approaches to shift, including:

• Make requests of those who can influence the culture

• Find and express the cost of staying the same

• Envision and communicate the future state

• Invite specific action

2) Make re-forecasting a habit. 

Instead of an afterthought or being completely forgotten, you’ll want to make re-forecasting habitual - a regular part of your routine.

To do this, consider how you can make it easier to build the habit. Use the practices in the book Atomic Habits. What is hard about it that could be made simpler? How can you maximize the part of it you (or others) enjoy the most? How can you (or others) start repeating the first, small step toward regular re-forecasting?

The easier you make it to re-forecast, the more likely you’re going to keep doing it.

Walk out your agility by regularly reviewing and adapting your forecasts. Collaboratively reflect on your past performance at least monthly, adjusting forecasts and their underlying assumptions based on insights gained. Prioritize adjustments that are most likely to improve the success of your plans.

Quotes

“If you have to forecast, forecast often.” — Edgar Fiedler

“The difference between an amateur and a professional is in their habits. An amateur has amateur habits. A professional has professional habits. We can never free ourselves from habit. But we can replace bad habits with good ones.” — Steven Pressfield

“A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.” — Clive Granger

Quick Step

Take one small step to make re-forecasting easier and more habitual.

Question

How much agility do you have in your forecasting today?

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Quintessential Thought

Many organizations’ forecasting practices are arduous, requiring detailed, long-term schedules, low-level year-long budgets, and a long list of fine-grained backlog items. When we’re in a complex environment of ambiguity and unpredictability, this approach decreases agility, unnecessarily constraining adaptability, learning, and creativity. It’s also a hidden waste, as leaders push for more detail on things that will need to be completely reevaluated when we learn more about our complexity.

Some people I’ve coached have reacted by suggesting we throw out forecasting entirely, with declarations like, “There are no dates in Agile!” Oof. That’s not going to work, either. Leaders and customers need to make investment decisions, and forecasting to enable this is a reasonable expectation.

The question is…how do we forecast in ways that enable effective investment decisions and enable agility and learning? In the coming weeks, we’ll give you 4 core practices of Agile Forecasting that will help you find a balance between these needs.

If you’ve been reading our 4 C’s newsletters for a while, it should come as no surprise that all of our practices will be based on your clarity of two things:

• What does success look like? Often, it’s assumed that success is meeting the forecasts, but that doesn’t mean your product is successful. To forecast well, you will need to wrestle with the indicators of success for your product.

• What are we trying to learn? Another assumption is that we know everything, or nearly so. But if you are operating in complexity, there are too many unknowns and changes to be that certain. So, what are the most important things for you to learn to enable success?

Quotes

“To be uncertain is to be uncomfortable, but to be certain is to be ridiculous.” — Chinese proverb

“Build less, start sooner.” — Jim Highsmith

“Setting oneself on a predetermined course in unknown waters is the perfect way to sail straight into an iceberg.” — Henry Mintzberg

Quick Step

Revisit and the definition of success for your product. A couple of our past posts may help: Rethinking Value & Experiment to Activate.

What is the most helpful thing forecasting conversation you’ve had about forecasting? The least helpful?

Question

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel or connect with us on LinkedIn, where we’re posting even more content than we have in this newsletter!

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Quintessential Thought

We hold retrospectives with teams all the time, encouraging them to inspect and adapt their ways of working together. And there are regular times of product inspection; in Scrum, we have Sprint Reviews with stakeholders.

As this new year dawns, consider applying this same practice to you, personally. Take a moment to hold a personal retrospective. Set aside some uninterrupted time - say, 30 minutes - and consider a few important aspects:

• What is going well?

• What could be better?

• Where are you over-investing?

• Where are you under-investing? 

• What are you ignoring?

You can use the Wheel of Life concept, originated by Paul J. Meyer in the 1960s, to consider a wide view of your life across several categories.

Then, consider actions that you intend to take:

• Protect things that are important and going well

• Grow things that are important and need more investment

• Let go of things that are less important or harmful

• Be grateful for things that are beneficial and healthy

As with teams, we recommend that you only pick a few actions to focus on, and then make those small enough that you can do them in a short period of time (like a week).

What better way to start the year?

Quotes

"The unexamined life is not worth living" – Socrates

“Follow effective action with quiet reflection. From the quiet reflection will come even more effective action.” – Peter Drucker

“Self-reflection is a much kinder teacher than regret is. Prioritize yourself by making a habit of it.” – Andrena Sawyer

Quick Step

If you can’t do it right now, put a 30 minute personal retrospective on your calendar in the next few days.

Question

Who would it be helpful to get feedback from as you enter your personal retrospective?

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about unpacking composite attributes to increase clarity, alignment, and creativity. We’ve explored how to find supporting attributes that can make up a composite attribute, and then whittling the list down to a focused set of attributes.

Once you have a handful of supporting attributes, running experiments is a great way to unlock the creativity of your team and learn your way toward the composite attribute. Help those who are doing the work to create hypotheses: things they can do that might positively affect the desired outcome. Use the Change Hypothesis Template to clarify the hypothesis, select the smallest and most viable hypotheses, run experiments to test them, and observe the results.

A more robust framework for running empirical experiments toward larger goals is Evidence-Based Management. It describes effective goals, an iterative approach to make progress, and a set of Key Value Areas that empirically illuminate your current and desired realities.

Don’t be afraid to consider modifying the attributes as you go - you’re likely to discover things you missed or overstated. Collaboratively adapting these is a way to embody the qualities that will make your product development successful.

Quotes

“Every great journey starts with a single step.” – Maya Angelou

“I long to accomplish a great and noble task; but it is my chief duty to accomplish small tasks as if they were great and noble.” – Helen Keller

“The only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis is comparison of prediction with experience.” - Milton Friedman

Quick Step

Collaboratively fill out the Change Hypothesis Template with your team to find a next step.

Question

What is getting in the way of your team taking action toward your most important composite attribute?

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about unpacking composite attributes to increase clarity, alignment, and creativity. Last week, we explored how to find supporting attributes that can make up a composite attribute.

This week, we’re whittling the list down to find the most critical attributes to focus on.

If we want to increase agility, value, team effectiveness, or any other composite attribute, we need a short list of supporting attributes that are critical to the larger goal. If there are too many, we won’t be able to select actions that affect the goal, and we diffuse the focus of everyone working toward the goal. In other words, we need to minimize the list to maximize the focus.

The best way we know how to do this is to use a Liberating Structure called MinSpecs. With a group of people who will be involved in achieving the goal:

1. Come up with a list of all the possible attributes that could support the composite attribute (this was covered in last week’s article).

2. One at a time, consider each attribute and eliminate any that could be ignored while it’s possible to still achieve the composite attribute.

The conversations these simple steps produce are enlightening and clarifying. As the MinSpecs page says, “Often two to five Min Specs are sufficient to boost performance by adding more freedom AND more responsibility to the group’s understanding of what it must do to make progress.”

As a side note, you may discover it’s necessary to jettison the composite attribute when communicating. Perhaps it has become so strictly defined in unhelpful terms that redefinition is nearly impossible, and it’s clearer to use the supporting attributes or other terms to describe the high-level direction.

Now, with this clarity and focus, what do you do? Next week, we’ll look at how you can activate!

Quotes

“A designer knows perfection is achieved not when there is nothing more to add but when there is nothing more that can be taken away.” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.” – Leonardo da Vinci

“If your mind isn’t clouded by unnecessary things, then this is the best season of your life.” – Wu-Men

Quick Step

When have you experienced too many options being unhelpful for you or a team?

Question

Run MinSpecs for a composite attribute or goal in your team.

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

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Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel or connect with us on LinkedIn, where we’re posting even more content than we have in this newsletter!

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Quintessential Thought

We’re in a series about unpacking composite attributes to increase clarity, alignment, and creativity.

This week, we’re looking at the first step - exploring the elements that make up vague terms like “agility,” “value,” and “effectiveness.” Recognizing something as a composite attribute can invite consideration of the parts that comprise the larger whole.

This requires curiosity. Each context is different - lead the way with curiosity in conversation. Facilitate discussion to explore the composite attribute and identify supporting attributes. Here are a few tips to help:

• Observability: Ask observability questions like, 

  • “How would we see if we had more agility?” 

  • “How would we know if the product wasn’t valuable?”

  • “What would it look like if the team was effective?”

• Resources: Use resources like the Example Key Value Measures in the Appendix of the Evidence-Based Management Guide or the descriptions of the accountabilities in the Scrum Guide.

• Reactions: Look for reactions like, “We won’t be able to get to the composite attribute without that, but we also need other things.” This means you have a good candidate supporting attribute of the composite attribute.

• Measurability: Craft each supporting attribute into something that can be measured

For agility, you might discover supporting attributes like:

• How frequently we get feedback from our customers and stakeholders

• How quickly we learn from deploying a new version of the product

• How long it takes us to develop and release a new feature

• How quickly we react to a market change

• How frequently we release

For product value (the Product Owner’s accountability), you might discover supporting attributes like:

• How many customers purchase the product

• How many customers use the product or feature

• How many customers are repeat customers

• How satisfied are our customers

• How many customers refer others

For team effectiveness (the Scrum Master’s accountability), you might discover supporting attributes like:

• How often the team produces a Done Increment of product

• How many errors or defects are produced by the team

• How engaged the team members are

• How often outside decisions delay the team’s development

• How much of the team’s time is spent on new product development

These conversations will increase clarity, expose misunderstandings, and unlock creativity as you look toward your goals. Don’t worry if the list of supporting attributes is long - the next step is whittling it down to essentials.

Quotes

“Observability is the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others.” ― Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations

"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing." ― Albert Einstein

“Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise.” ― Bertrand Russell

Quick Step

What issues have you seen when people have different views on a composite attribute?

Question

Pick a composite attribute and ask some observability questions with team members.

Professional Product Discovery and Validation, Jan 24

Want to chat? Reach out to info@unstuckagile.com so we can help you get Unstuck!

Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel or connect with us on LinkedIn, where we’re posting even more content than we have in this newsletter!