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Why Social Security’s 2.8% Raise in 2026 May Still Leave Retirees Falling Behind

Social Security recipients received a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, slightly higher than last year’s 2.5% increase. So far, inflation — measured by the CPI-W — is running at 2.2% annually, meaning the COLA is technically outpacing broad inflation early in the year.

But there’s a catch.

Social Security COLAs are based on the CPI-W, which reflects spending patterns of urban wage earners — not retirees. Seniors typically spend a much larger share of their income on healthcare, and medical costs have been rising faster than overall inflation.

For example:

• Medicare Part B premiums rose 9.7% this year

• Nearly 58% of seniors skipped healthcare services in the past 12 months due to cost

• Seniors have lost 20% of their buying power since 2010

So even though the 2.8% raise looks adequate on paper, higher healthcare costs could quickly erase any real benefit. Read More.

What this means for you

1. A “Raise” Doesn’t Always Mean More Buying Power

Even when Social Security increases exceed headline inflation, your personal inflation rate may be much higher — especially if healthcare is a major expense.

2. Healthcare Is the Real Wild Card

A near 10% increase in Medicare premiums alone can wipe out most of a 2.8% benefit increase. And medical inflation tends to outpace broader CPI over time.

3. Relying Solely on Social Security Is Risky

Over the past 14 years, retirees have lost 20% of their purchasing power. That trend suggests structural erosion — not just a one-year issue.

4. Income Diversification Matters

If most of your retirement income comes from Social Security:

• Budget pressure may continue

• Healthcare costs may keep rising faster than COLAs

• Supplemental income sources become increasingly important

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U.S. Household Debt Hits $18.8 Trillion as Delinquencies Climb to Highest Level Since 2017

U.S. household debt rose to $18.8 trillion in Q4 2025, increasing by $191 billion in the quarter and $740 billion over the year, according to the New York Fed. Since 2019, total household debt has grown by $4.6 trillion.

Breakdown of balances:

• Mortgages: $13.17 trillion

• Credit cards: $1.3 trillion

• Auto loans: $1.7 trillion

• Student loans: $1.7 trillion

More concerning than the balances themselves is the rise in missed payments.

• 4.8% of household debt is now delinquent, the highest since 2017

• Mortgage delinquencies are rising in lower-income and weaker labor markets

• Multifamily housing delinquencies are nearing levels last seen during the 2008 crisis

• 9.6% of student loans are seriously delinquent, with new serious delinquencies surging sharply

While overall mortgage performance remains stable nationally, financial stress is building in specific regions and among non-mortgage borrowers. Credit card and auto loan delinquencies remain elevated, though some economists say they may be leveling off.

The broader signal: household balance sheets are becoming more strained as savings cushions thin and borrowing costs remain elevated. More.

What this means for you

1. Consumers Are Feeling Pressure

Rising delinquencies suggest many households are struggling to keep up with payments. That often happens when:

• Savings run low

• Interest costs rise

• Wage growth slows

Financial flexibility shrinks.

2. Credit Conditions Could Tighten

When missed payments increase:

• Banks may tighten lending standards

• Credit becomes harder or more expensive to access

• Economic growth can slow

This can ripple into housing, auto sales, and consumer spending.

3. Risk Assets May Face Headwinds

Higher debt burdens and weaker consumer liquidity can reduce participation in speculative markets. Retail-driven assets — including certain equities and crypto — may see softer demand if disposable income declines.

4. Watch the Trend, Not Just the Total

Debt levels alone don’t cause crises. Rising delinquencies do.

If serious delinquencies continue climbing — particularly in student loans, lower-income housing markets, and multifamily real estate — it could signal broader economic stress ahead.

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U.S. Budget Deficit to Hit $1.85 Trillion in 2026 as Debt Climbs Toward Record Levels, CBO Warns

The U.S. federal budget deficit is on track to worsen in the coming years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in its latest projections on Feb. 11. The agency forecasts that the deficit will grow slightly in fiscal 2026 to about $1.85 trillion, equivalent to roughly 5.8% of GDP, up from about $1.78 trillion in 2025.

Over the next decade, deficits are expected to remain persistently large, averaging about 6.1% of GDP, and rising to approximately 6.7% by fiscal 2036 under current law — far above the roughly 3% target set by U.S. Treasury officials.

The outlook reflects slower economic growth assumptions by the CBO — projecting real GDP growth around 2.2% in 2026, fading to about 1.8% later in the decade — as well as the impact of recent tax and spending policies, including extensions of prior tax cuts.

The agency’s long-term forecasts also show federal debt rising steadily, with debt held by the public projected to surpass its post-World War II peak as a share of the economy by 2030 and climb toward 120% of GDP by 2036. Read More. 

What this means for you

When deficits grow to levels comparable with Social Security and Medicare spending, it signals structural fiscal imbalance — not just a temporary problem.

For individuals, that means:

• Greater importance of diversified assets

• Protection against inflation and currency debasement

• Reduced reliance on government programs

• Proactive retirement and wealth preservation planning

The 2030 deficit projection isn’t just a headline. It’s a warning that the financial environment over the next decade may look very different from the past one.

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Oil Surges, Markets Slide After U.S.–Israel Strikes on Iran; Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady

Oil prices jumped and global stocks fell after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliation and disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route. Iran supplies about 4% of the world’s crude, making energy markets highly sensitive to escalation.

Economists say the conflict will likely push U.S. gas prices higher and increase market volatility in the short term. However, because this is viewed as a supply-driven oil shock — not overheating demand — the Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting unless the war becomes prolonged and significantly disrupts global energy flows. More.

What this means for you

This situation affects you in three major ways:

1. Higher Gas & Everyday Costs

If oil prices remain elevated:

• Gas prices rise

• Transportation costs increase

• Businesses may pass higher input costs on to consumers

Even short-term energy spikes can ripple through groceries, shipping, and travel.

2. Market Volatility

Geopolitical shocks often trigger:

• Stock market swings

• Flight to safe-haven assets

• Temporary fear-driven selling

Markets may have priced in some risk already, but headlines can move prices quickly.

3. Inflation Risks — But Not Necessarily Higher Rates

If energy prices spike:

• Headline inflation could tick higher

• The Fed may avoid tightening policy because rate hikes won’t fix supply disruptions

That creates a tricky environment:

• Slower growth

• Sticky inflation

• Elevated uncertainty

If the conflict expands or disrupts oil flows long-term, the risk shifts from a temporary shock to something more structural — potentially increasing recession or stagflation risk.

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The Next Financial Collapse

Robert Kuttner argues that the U.S. is likely headed toward a severe financial crisis in 2026, driven by overvalued markets and dangerously underregulated sectors — particularly crypto, private credit, and AI.

He warns that if a crash occurs, the response would depend heavily on Fed chair-designate Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and based on past behavior, he believes they may either mishandle the crisis or use it to favor Wall Street insiders. Read More. 

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Dollar weakens ahead of key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report

The U.S. dollar weakened ahead of key U.S. jobs data, as investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the coming months if economic momentum slows.

Markets are closely watching upcoming employment and inflation reports, which could shape the Fed’s rate decisions for 2026. More.

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Jamie Dimon Says Global Conflict Is Already Here—What Investors Should Actually Pay Attention To

In October 2024, Jamie Dimon warned that escalating global conflicts and nuclear proliferation pose greater existential risks than climate change, arguing that a form of “World War III” is already underway through coordinated conflicts, economic pressure, and geopolitical fragmentation. While he acknowledged this is not a traditional world war, Dimon said JPMorgan has modeled severe global-conflict scenarios that would significantly disrupt markets.

Since those remarks, geopolitical tensions have intensified—driven by trade wars, tariffs, and diplomatic rifts involving the U.S., China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and even Western allies. Global leaders and institutions now broadly agree that the world has shifted from globalization toward persistent geopolitical risk, with real consequences for growth, inflation, financial markets, and supply chains.

The article argues that while panic isn’t warranted, investors should avoid overreliance on cash, which is historically vulnerable during wars due to inflation. Instead, it emphasizes diversification, selectivity in assets, and resilience-focused investing as uncertainty becomes a lasting feature of the global economy. Read More. 

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China Signals Caution on U.S. Debt as Overexposure Fears Grow

China may be gradually reassessing its exposure to U.S. Treasuries, adding to broader investor unease about overconcentration in American assets. According to Bloomberg, Chinese regulators have advised domestic banks to limit large holdings of U.S. government debt due to concerns about volatility and security—though this guidance does not apply to China’s official reserve holdings, and Chinese banks are not major Treasury buyers.

Market analysts emphasize this is not a sudden sell-off. Instead, it reflects a wider trend of cautious diversification, particularly among BRIC nations, whose Treasury holdings have generally declined over the past year. While China remains the third-largest holder of U.S. debt, its holdings have edged down since mid-2025.

The shift comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions under Donald Trump’s second administration, including tariff threats and diplomatic disputes, which have made foreign investors more sensitive to political risk. Still, economists note there is little evidence of capital flight from U.S. assets. Instead, investors appear more focused on hedging dollar exposure rather than dumping Treasuries outright, with private-sector demand continuing to absorb U.S. debt issuance. Read More.

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How America’s Data Backbone Is Eroding

Over the past few decades, the explosion of accessible data—from economic statistics to health and climate insights—has transformed decision-making, stabilized markets, and saved lives. But this data revolution is now under threat, especially within government agencies that produce the foundational statistics businesses, policymakers, and households rely on. Budget constraints, declining survey participation, political interference, staffing cuts, and repeated government shutdowns have weakened institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leading to delayed, suspended, or less precise economic data.

As federal data degrades, private-sector substitutes have proven insufficient, lacking the breadth and representativeness needed to fully capture the economy. The consequences ripple outward: the Federal Reserve struggles to set policy accurately, businesses lose their ability to plan, and individuals are forced to make career and financial decisions based on guesswork rather than facts. This erosion also fuels public distrust, pushing Americans to rely more on “vibes” than evidence. Ultimately, the piece argues that producing less data is not the solution to data overload—doing so risks empowering misinformation and undermining the effective functioning of a modern capitalist economy. Read More. 

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Dollar Surges as Metals Slide and Oil Falls on Hawkish Fed Bets

The US dollar jumped sharply, heading for its strongest two-day rally since April, driven by stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve leadership. Precious metals, including gold and silver, extended their recent selloff after President Trump announced plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair—a move markets interpret as more hawkish on inflation, strengthening the dollar and undermining gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.

Oil prices fell after comments suggesting renewed US-Iran talks, weighing on energy-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. While the dollar’s rebound has forced investors to unwind crowded bearish positions, many strategists still expect longer-term weakness due to policy uncertainty and rising deficits. For now, markets are experiencing heightened volatility across currencies and metals as January’s dollar-selling frenzy reverses and February trading begins. Read More.

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Shutdown Deadline Looms: Why This One Could Rattle the Economy Differently

A partial U.S. government shutdown is increasingly likely by Friday at midnight, after negotiations were upended by political fallout from a fatal Minneapolis shooting involving federal agents. Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, say they will block funding that includes the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), meaning a unified Democratic caucus can stop the bill from advancing under the Senate’s 60-vote threshold.

This shutdown could play out differently than last fall’s record 43-day disruption because six of the 12 annual funding bills are already signed, and some departments (like Commerce and Agriculture) would remain funded—but others in the middle of the fight (including the Labor Department/BLS, which releases key jobs and inflation data, and agencies tied to airport operations) could be affected. Analysts warn another shutdown so soon could again delay federal paychecks, halt services, and distort or delay economic data, with betting markets quickly pricing in a high probability (around 80% as of Monday). Read More. 

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Is the World About to “Sell America”? The $27.6 Trillion Question

Reuters’ Jamie McGeever says talk of a renewed “Sell America” trade is back, driven by global unease over President Trump’s recent policy moves and their impact on alliances and the global order. The stakes are huge: the rest of the world is net “long the USA” by about $27.6 trillion—America’s record net international investment position—meaning overseas investors hold far more U.S. assets than Americans hold abroad.

A sudden rush for the exits is unlikely because the U.S. remains the deepest, most liquid market, and avoiding U.S. equities would also mean betting against many of the world’s most valuable companies. But McGeever argues markets may not need a mass exodus to feel pain: even a slowdown in foreign inflows could weaken U.S. asset prices and chip away at the “American exceptionalism” narrative. That matters because the U.S. still relies on sustained overseas capital to finance its deficit—roughly $1T+ a year—and keeping global investors willing to buy more U.S. assets could get harder amid geopolitical turbulence. Read More.

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Dow Plunges 870 as Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat Sparks Worst Day Since October

U.S. stocks tumbled Tuesday after President Donald Trump escalated trade threats tied to acquiring Greenland, spooking investors and triggering a broader risk-off move. The Dow fell 870 points (-1.76%) to 48,488.59, the S&P 500 dropped 2.06% to 6,796.86, and the Nasdaq slid 2.39% to 22,954.32—each logging its worst session since October. The selloff pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into the red for 2026 so far (down 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively), while the VIX “fear gauge” jumped as high as 20.99.

The catalyst was Trump’s statement that imports from eight NATO members would face escalating tariffs “until” a deal is reached for the “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland,” starting at 10% on Feb. 1 and rising to 25% by June 1. He also floated 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne and criticized the U.K. over the Chagos Islands, framing both as national-security context for why Greenland “has to be acquired.” Markets also reacted to signs of strain in demand for U.S. assets: Treasury yields rose, the dollar fell, and Denmark’s AkademikerPension said it would exit U.S. Treasurys due to concerns about U.S. debt.

Commentary highlighted that stocks were already priced for “perfection,” making them vulnerable to policy shocks—especially since the new tariff pressure targets close U.S. allies. European leaders reportedly called the threats “unacceptable” and weighed countermeasures, including the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument. Ray Dalio warned that trade conflicts can morph into “capital wars” if investors become less willing to fund U.S. debt. Still, Citi’s Scott Chronert characterized the selloff as a potential “buy the dip” opportunity and reiterated a 7,700 S&P 500 target (about 11% upside), while noting macro risks need monitoring. Read More. 

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Central Banks Rush for Gold as Confidence in the Dollar Wobbles

Central banks around the world are rapidly increasing their gold holdings as geopolitical tensions rise and confidence in the U.S. dollar weakens. The article highlights how gold’s share of global central bank reserves has doubled over the past decade to more than a quarter—its highest level in nearly 30 years—driven by a desire for an “insurance policy” against volatility and the risk that dollar-linked reserves could be frozen or weaponized via sanctions.

It points to growing unease over U.S. policy uncertainty and concerns about the credibility and independence of U.S. institutions, alongside precedents like the freezing of Russia’s reserves and Venezuela’s restricted access to gold held abroad. As a result, many central banks are not only buying more gold but also repatriating bullion from overseas vaults back to domestic storage for control and security.

Despite the dollar remaining the dominant reserve currency (though its share has slipped from about 66% to about 57% over a decade), the lack of a clear alternative among other fiat currencies is pushing institutions toward gold as a politically neutral store of value. The piece notes gold has overtaken the euro as the second-most important reserve asset and that central banks remain cautious about cryptocurrencies due to volatility and security concerns. Read More.

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China Tests “Flying Aircraft Carrier” Capable of Deploying 100 Drones

China has conducted the first flight of its new Jiu Tian “flying aircraft carrier,” a large unmanned aerial mothership designed to deploy and control up to 100 drones over long distances. The platform is intended to extend China’s surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike capabilities by releasing swarms of drones mid-air, allowing operations far beyond the range of individual UAVs. The test highlights China’s growing focus on drone swarming, networked warfare, and long-range unmanned systems, signaling a significant shift in how future air and electronic warfare could be conducted. Read More. 

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China Tightens Control of Gold Markets, Signaling a Shift in the Global Monetary Order

China has reaffirmed its strict oversight of domestic gold markets, reinforcing the state’s role in regulating production, trading, and capital flows tied to gold. This move reflects Beijing’s broader strategy to strengthen financial sovereignty, support the yuan, and reduce reliance on the U.S.-dollar–centric system. By consolidating control over gold—both as a strategic reserve asset and a monetary hedge—China is positioning itself for a potential reconfiguration of global finance, where gold plays a more central role in balancing currency risk and geopolitical uncertainty. Read More.

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High cost of goods is causing consumers to spend less for the holidays, CNBC survey finds

Inflation is significantly shaping Americans’ holiday spending behavior this year, according to CNBC’s All-America Economic Survey. High prices are now the top reason people are both spending less—and, for the first time, spending more—reflecting how inflation is influencing decisions at every income level.

• Affordability pressure: 61% of Americans say prices are rising faster than their incomes, climbing to nearly 80% among households earning under $30,000.

• Spending plans: 41% plan to spend less this holiday season (up 6 points from last year), 42% plan to spend the same, and 16% plan to spend more.

• Why people are spending differently:

  • 46% of those spending less cite high prices

  • 36% of those spending more also cite high prices (a sharp shift from prior years when income growth drove spending increases)

• Holiday budgets: Average planned spending is $1,016 overall, but $1,199 among those actually buying gifts—up about 4% from 2024.

• Economic sentiment: 60% of Americans are pessimistic about the current economy and its outlook, including a majority of Republicans (53%), signaling broad-based concern.

• Shopping behavior: Consumers are shifting toward cost-conscious channels:

  • More shopping online (+9 points)

  • Increased use of big-box and wholesale stores (Walmart, Costco)

  • 28% buy only discounted items; half look for deals but still buy what they want

• Debt load: 57% of Americans carry debt into the holiday season, up 11 points from last year, with notable increases among ages 18–34. Read More. 

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Robert Kiyosaki warns of ‘massive unemployment’ caused by the ‘biggest change’ in history. Are you at risk in 2026?

Prominent business and tech leaders are warning that artificial intelligence could trigger historic job disruption. Robert Kiyosaki claims AI will cause massive unemployment, particularly hurting “smart students” burdened with student loan debt. Echoing this concern, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warns AI could eliminate up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs and drive unemployment as high as 20%.

Elon Musk offers a more optimistic long-term view, suggesting AI could eventually make work optional, with people choosing to work for enjoyment rather than necessity as money becomes less relevant. However, he acknowledges significant disruption will occur before that future arrives.

In response, Kiyosaki argues that traditional career paths are increasingly risky and promotes “shock-proofing” income through entrepreneurship and passive income. He advocates investing in real assets like real estate, gold, silver, and Bitcoin rather than relying on salaried jobs or conventional investment portfolios, which he believes are more vulnerable in an AI-driven economy. Read More.

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Fed's favored inflation gauge shows consumer prices remained elevated in September

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, showed consumer prices were still elevated in September. Headline PCE rose 0.3% from August and remained 2.8% higher than a year ago—well above the Fed’s 2% target. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and 2.8% annually, indicating slightly cooler but still sticky inflation.

Goods inflation accelerated, with prices up 1.4% annually, while services inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. The personal savings rate held steady at 4.7%.

Economists say inflation is no longer accelerating but may remain near 3% in the coming quarters, moderating toward—but not reaching—2% before 2026.

The Fed meets next week to decide on interest rates. Despite mixed views among policymakers and persistent inflation, markets expect an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The data release was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown, and the timing of the October report is still uncertain. Read More.

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US layoffs soar past 1.1M in 2025, highest level since the pandemic

U.S. employer layoffs fell sharply in November—dropping 53% from October to 71,321—but job cuts for 2025 have still climbed to their highest level since the massive pandemic layoffs of 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Despite the monthly decline, November layoffs were 24% higher than a year ago and exceeded 70,000 for only the second time since 2008 (aside from 2022). So far in 2025, employers have announced 1.17 million job cuts, up 54% from the same period in 2024 and the highest year-to-date total since 2020.

Key sectors driving layoffs:

• Telecommunications: 15,139 cuts in November (largest since April 2020); 38,035 YTD (+268%).

• Tech: 12,377 cuts in November; 153,536 YTD (+17%).

• Food industry: 6,708 November cuts; 34,165 YTD (+26%).

• Services: 5,509 November cuts; 69,089 YTD (+64%).

• Retail: 3,290 November cuts; 91,954 YTD (+139%).

Historically, announcing layoffs near year-end was common but fell out of favor after the Great Recession. This year marks only the sixth time since 1993 that year-to-date job cuts through November exceeded 1.1 million. Read More.

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Black Friday shoppers are relying on Buy Now, Pay Later plans. Here's how that could backfire.

Black Friday is shattering records this year, with Americans expected to spend nearly $12 billion—up $1B from last year—according to Adobe. Cyber Monday is projected to be just as strong. A major driver? Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL).

Adobe estimates shoppers will spend over $20 billion through BNPL plans between Nov 1 and Dec 31, an 11% jump from 2024. Cyber Monday BNPL use alone is expected to pass $1 billion for the first time.

BNPL is especially popular with Gen Z and millennials, who like spreading payments over time through services like Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay, and PayPal—often interest-free.

But there’s a catch:
Starting this fall, FICO will begin including BNPL data in credit scores. While this gives lenders more insight into repayment behavior, it creates new risks for consumers.

BNPL only reports late payments, not on-time ones—meaning using it won’t boost your credit, but missing payments can hurt it. Late fees also add up. A LendingTree study found 41% of BNPL users made at least one late payment last year, with high-income borrowers, men, young adults, and parents among the most likely.

In short: Buy Now, Pay Later is becoming Buy Now, Worry Later—especially for your credit score. Read More.

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What to know about investing in a gold IRA

Gold has surged to $4,100/oz in late November — up 22% in six months and 55% over the past year — driven by inflation, geopolitical instability, and fears of overvalued stock markets. Goldman Sachs now predicts gold could reach $4,900 by 2026.

As volatility returns to traditional retirement portfolios, more Americans are turning to gold IRAs — self-directed retirement accounts that hold physical precious metals instead of stocks or bonds. They offer the same tax advantages as traditional or Roth IRAs but come with different risks, rules, and fees.

Pros
• Diversification + tax benefits: Gold IRAs combine a historically stable physical asset with tax-deferred or tax-free growth.
• Inflation hedge: Gold has maintained purchasing power across generations.
• Control: Investors can choose account type, manage taxation timing, and even take gold as an in-kind distribution.

Cons
• Slow transactions: Buying/selling physical metals isn’t instant.
• You can’t hold the gold yourself: A custodian must handle all storage and logistics.
• Higher fees: Setup, annual, storage, and insurance fees can make gold IRAs impractical for small balances.

Tips for investors
• Vet all three required vendors: custodian, metals dealer, and storage facility.
• Compare custodians on service, fees, and transparency.
• Diversify across metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) to reduce risk.

Bottom line:
Gold IRAs can help diversify and protect retirement savings, especially during inflationary periods, but high fees and complexity mean they’re best suited for experienced investors with larger portfolios. Read More.

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De-dollarization is real, and advisors need a plan

In 2025, U.S. markets remain stable, but America’s financial dominance—and the dollar’s strength—are increasingly in question. At Schwab IMPACT 2025, advisors focused heavily on global diversification, driven not just by market forces but by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty from President Trump’s tariff policies.

Ed Lopez of VanEck said advisors are especially interested in private markets, AI-related opportunities, emerging markets, and de-dollarization. De-dollarization has accelerated as countries diversify away from the U.S. after geopolitical shocks like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. blocking nations from the SWIFT system. As a result, central banks are stockpiling gold, and investors are looking more at gold, emerging-market assets, and even Bitcoin.

Lopez argued that emerging-market bonds deserve renewed attention: many EM countries now have stronger fundamentals—lower deficits and more disciplined central banks—than developed economies. ETFs that can invest in both hard- and local-currency EM debt may offer better flexibility and value.

He also highlighted rising interest in private markets, warning investors that traditional public funds may not offer the best way to access them due to illiquidity. VanEck instead created more liquid access points like their alternative asset managers ETF.

Other themes included the need for careful ETF selection—especially sector ETFs that cap tech exposure—and the role of active management in fast-moving areas like crypto. Read More.

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Morning Bid: Giving thanks for bad economic news.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data (soft retail sales, falling consumer confidence, and a higher 4.4% unemployment rate) has boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, lifting U.S. and global stocks ahead of Thanksgiving. Fed funds futures now price in about an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut.

In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is unveiling a crucial autumn budget expected to include significant tax hikes to stay within fiscal rules and reassure bond markets; sterling is steady after several days of gains.

Elsewhere, the yen briefly strengthened on reports the Bank of Japan may hike rates as soon as next month, while oil prices remain rangebound amid expectations of a supply glut and possible progress on a U.S.-backed Ukraine-Russia peace framework.

Market-wise, a highlight is rising AI-chip competition: Alphabet’s shares rose on news Meta may use Google’s AI chips, while Nvidia fell over 2%, underscoring shifting dynamics in the AI hardware race. Read More.

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Tariffs have surprising effect on unemployment and inflation patterns, Fed analysis reveals

A new analysis from the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that tariffs have unexpected and shifting effects on inflation and unemployment. Using 40 years of global trade data, economists found that immediately after tariffs rise, unemployment tends to increase and inflation falls, acting like a demand shock as both consumers and businesses pull back spending.

Over time, the pattern reverses: unemployment returns to normal levels while inflation rises, peaking about three years after the tariff change. The economists note that this happens because tariffs disrupt supply chains, increase business costs, and delay investment decisions.

However, they warn that today’s U.S. tariffs—jumping from about 3% to around 18%—are far larger than anything in the historical data, making predictions less reliable. Current inflation has climbed back to 3% and unemployment has risen to 4.4%, but government shutdown disruptions make trends harder to track.

Overall, the Fed’s takeaway is: tariffs act as a near-term brake on demand, but over time they fuel higher inflation — and today’s tariff levels are unlike anything in modern history. Read More.

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Um … Is Donald Trump Seriously Going to Start a War with Venezuela?

The article argues that President Trump is bypassing democratic norms and legal limits—both at home and abroad—by aggressively targeting Venezuela and its leader, Nicolás Maduro. While Maduro is an autocrat who likely lost the 2024 election, the Trump administration has escalated far beyond previous U.S. policy, effectively waging a low-grade, unauthorized conflict.

Over the past three months, the administration has carried out nearly two dozen military strikes on Venezuelan-linked fishing boats, flown U.S. aircraft near Venezuela’s coast, labeled Maduro’s government a terrorist organization, and confirmed upcoming CIA operations inside the country. These moves are happening with no congressional approval, minimal public support, and little international backing. Polls show most Americans don’t view Venezuela as a major threat and want clearer justification.

Critics say the administration’s actions mirror the prelude to the Iraq War—but with even less oversight. The article contends that political motives, personal animosity toward Maduro, and the influence of anti-Maduro figures (like Marco Rubio and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado) may be driving policy more than legitimate national-security concerns. Read More.

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The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation

The U.S. middle class is under growing financial strain as inflation — though eased from its 2022 peak — has driven up costs by around 25% since 2020. Essentials like food, auto repairs and housing-related expenses remain elevated, while wage growth has failed to keep pace. As a result, many middle-income households are feeling worse off, cutting discretionary spending, using savings, and taking extra jobs to cope.Read More.

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Job Losses Mounted In October As Employers 'Struggled'—And Wall Street Projects Grim Job Market

New ADP data shows the U.S. private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, signaling a sharp slowdown in hiring and the first sustained decline since August. Earlier in October, the labor market appeared healthier—ADP initially reported that private employers added 42,000 jobs for the month. But the late-October data now points to a significant pullback, reversing gains made in early October. Read More.

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Gold buying by central banks up 10% in Q3

The Economic Times just reported that global central banks increased their gold purchases by 10% in Q3. Whenever the institutions that control the financial system start aggressively accumulating hard assets, it’s a signal regular investors cannot afford to ignore. Central banks aren’t emotional — they’re preparing for something. Read More.

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The global liquidity cycle — best described as the flow of funds through world financial markets — is drying up and this is bearish for equities, says a veteran strategist.

Global liquidity is drying up, signaling a bearish outlook for equities, according to Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital. He told the MacroVoices podcast that markets have been in a liquidity-driven bubble, but that liquidity is now being pulled back. Howell believes the speculative phase in U.S. stocks has already peaked and expects a market downturn that could last two to three years. Read More.

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Bessent warns 'perfect storm' brewing for beef prices, details Trump's $2,000 plan for working families

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration is focused on restoring everyday affordability and plans to send $2,000 checks to working Americans using revenue from new tariffs — though he noted Congress must approve the payments.

In an interview on Sunday Morning Futures, Bessent warned that a “perfect storm” of long pricing cycles, cattle disease concerns tied to immigration, and restrictions on Mexican beef imports are keeping food prices high. While inflation data is delayed due to the government shutdown, Bessent claims energy and interest rates are falling and that real purchasing power will improve through economic growth.

Beef prices remain a major concern, with Omaha Steaks’ CEO warning that costs could hit $10 per pound by late 2026.

Bessent said recent trade deals will remove tariffs on goods like coffee, cocoa, and bananas, which he expects will help lower the cost of living. Tariff revenues have risen sharply since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy launched, bringing in nearly $200 billion in FY 2025 — though economists note tariffs generate billions, not the trillions needed to meaningfully reduce the $38 trillion national debt.

Bessent closed by saying the administration is committed to lowering prices and acknowledging the financial strain Americans are feeling. Read More.

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A Very Important Week For Consumer Stocks 

Goldman Sachs consumer strategist Scott Feiler says this will be a crucial week for consumer stocks as major retailers report earnings and investor positioning sits at 7-year lows. He notes that the sector finally showed some improvement last week, but most of the move came from money rotating out of AI rather than true confidence in the consumer. Feiler expects stronger earnings from key names between now and Thanksgiving — including Walmart, TJX, ROST, GAP, and others — though investors will be watching closely for signs of a late-October spending slowdown. He adds that while there’s cautious optimism for better performance into year-end and hopes for a 2026 consumer rebound, conviction remains low due to soft labor-market sentiment and the sector’s sensitivity to daily AI swings. Trading activity has picked up, with long buys outpacing short sales, indicating a mild shift toward renewed interest in consumer discretionary and staples. Read More.

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Goldman forecasts 50,000 U.S. job loss in October, first since 2020

Goldman Sachs reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by about 50,000 jobs in October, citing weaker labor demand, rising layoffs, and the end of a deferred-resignation program. It marked the first monthly job loss since 2020. Read More.

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Silver Prices Notch a Fresh Record

Silver prices spiked 5.4%, setting a fresh record at $53.332/oz and topping last month’s historic high. Futures are now up more than 11% this week, marking their strongest weekly rally since last September—back when silver was still hovering around $30. Read More.

You know how strongly we believe in the power of gold to protect your wealth.

Today we’re sharing a tip on how you can also protect your health (and maximize your longevity) with our favorite “liquid gold”—extra virgin olive oil.

Here’s the story…

One of your benefits from receiving our emails is that we can alert you whenever we’re able to arrange a steep discount or even an occasional free offer of a product we love and highly recommend.

We’re delighted to let you know that we’ve arranged an exceptional deal with T.J. Robinson, aka the Olive Oil Hunter.

Now you can receive—from a gold-medal-winning artisanal farm—a free $39 bottle of one of the world’s finest olive oils direct from the new harvest, bursting with farm-fresh flavor and peak nutritional values that supermarket olive oils cannot match. And there’s no obligation to buy anything, now or ever.

All Robinson asks is $1 to help him cover shipping. He does this to let olive oil lovers discover the outrageous farm-fresh flavor they’re missing when they settle for supermarket olive oil.

As you probably know, olive oil has been hailed as a superfood by many leading M.D.s, and studies have been creating remarkable headlines recently. For example…

Use Extra Virgin Olive Oil and You Might Just ‘Forget to Die’”
—Headline in Reader’s Digest

And this headline in National Geographic based on their study of the Blue Zones (regions where people live the longest):
 “No food or medicine can do what olive oil can do.”

From US News & World Report:
 “Olive oil boosts longevity.”

From Life Extension Magazine:
 “Olive oil markedly extends human lifespan. Extra virgin olive oil lowers risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, and Alzheimer’s while boosting bone health. In a long-term clinical study, those who ingested the most olive-oil-derived polyphenols lived 9.5 years longer (after age 65).

But Please Beware of Supermarket Olive Oils!

To enjoy the full health and longevity benefits of olive oil, you want to buy if fresh. As the culinary experts at America’s Test Kitchen say, when it comes to olive oil, “the fresher the better.”

Here’s why…

The olive is a fruit. And olive oil is a fruit juice. You can imagine how much flavor and nutritional value any fruit juice would lose sitting on a supermarket shelf for months or years. It’s no different with olive oil. It’s not meant to sit on a store shelf growing stale!

We all insist on fresh milk, fresh eggs, fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh fruit, and fresh vegetables. In every case, freshness makes a big difference in flavor and nutrition, right? So, don’t we deserve fresh olive oil? Of course! But you’ll never find it in supermarkets, where olive oils sit on the shelf for months, even years, turning dull, stale and eventually rancid.

And that’s why, among all olive oils available in America, T.J. Robinson’s are truly unique. They are shipped to you direct from award-winning artisanal farms right at harvest time, bursting with harvest-fresh flavor and highest levels of its health-bestowing nutrients that supermarket olive oils cannot match.

Meet T.J. Robinson, the Olive Oil Hunter

A onetime chef and gourmet food writer/editor, Robinson came up with the idea of hunting for the world’s best, freshest artisanal extra virgin olive oils—and flying them straight from the new harvest at their peak of flavor and nutritional potency directly to the kitchens of America’s top gourmet chefs, passionate foodies, and lovers of natural, healthy foods. He does this through his exclusive Fresh-Pressed Olive Oil Club.

Every now and then, he likes to spread the good word about his olive oils by offering a limited number of free sample bottles to lovers of good, healthy food so they can discover for themselves the amazing difference freshness makes.

Try a $39 Bottle Free…and Pay Just $1 for Shipping

T.J.’s unique Fresh-Pressed Olive Oil Club is one of the most customer-friendly companies we’ve ever come across. Unlike some other clubs, there’s never a minimum commitment or obligation to buy anything. Every olive oil is independently lab-certified to be 100% pure extra virgin. Moreover, every olive oil comes with a no-questions-asked, 100% money-back guarantee. If you ever decide to ask for your money back on a given shipment, you don’t even have to return the oil. His outstanding customer service team graciously takes care of your refund request immediately.

Before You Say “Yes” or “No,” Try a Free $39 Bottle
So You Can Taste the Difference Yourself

If you’re even mildly curious about how glorious olive oil tastes at the peak of harvest-fresh flavor, T.J. will be delighted to send you a free $39 bottle of his club’s finest extra virgin olive oil, just in from the new harvest and brimming with more vibrant flavor and health benefits than any supermarket olive oil you’ll ever taste. All he asks you to pay is just $1 to help him cover the cost of shipping.

Long story short, he’s so proud of his family-farm olive oils that he wants to make it irresistibly easy for you to try his unique club and decide for yourself.

RSVP While Supplies Last

T.J. works only with small, artisanal family farms, so quantities are always limited. He sells only harvest-fresh olive oil, which means that he keeps no long-term inventory. Since his fresh olive oils are always in high demand, they fly out the door as soon as they arrive in America, and then he has no more until the next harvest. If you’d like to take advantage of this limited free-bottle offer, we recommend you act now.

Should you decide to remain a club member, you’ll also empower T.J.’s mission to support small, family-run farms that respect the environment, uphold the highest standards in local agriculture, treat their workers fairly, and live in harmony with Mother Nature to produce the finest, 100% pure extra virgin olive oils in the world. So, this is a win-win proposition for everyone, including our Mother Earth.

A Food Critic’s Rave

The publicity this oil is getting is quite something. Foodies, celebrity chefs, and food writers are raving about it. For example, Larry Olmsted, the acclaimed food and travel journalist, recently wrote in his New York Times best-selling book, Real Food/Fake Food:

“I now get most of my oil from T.J. Robinson’s Fresh-Pressed Olive Oil Club, and every time I open a bottle, my kitchen literally fills up with the smell of fresh crushed olives—the scent explodes out of the bottle. Just breaking the seal transports me to Italy or Spain or Chile.”

When you click on the link below, you’ll see similar comments from many other voices as well.

In addition to the king-sized flavor and nutrition payload, you gain priceless peace of mind knowing that all of the Club’s oils are independently certified by laboratory testing to be 100% pure extra virgin. This means you’ll no longer have to worry about serving your family or guests substandard or counterfeit olive oils which have been reported in many news media.

Extra Bonus If You Respond Now

 Click on the link below, and T.J. will toss in an extra bonus. It’s his fabulous ebook, 16 All-Time Favorite Recipes for Health and Longevity. From mouthwatering appetizers you can whip up in less than five minutes…to sublime main courses…to one of the most delicious desserts you’ll ever bite into (Olive Oil Chocolate Chip Cookies!), these will take their place among your favorite go-to recipes.

P.S. At this link, T.J. Robinson, the Olive Oil Hunter, also provides a short article, “The Best Ways to Store Your Olive Oil.” It’s a must-read for anyone who uses olive oil.

P.P.S. If you are interested in this offer, please have no worries. If you want to continue in the club, you can. If you don’t, that’s fine, too. Just cancel and that’s it. And just for giving the club a try and paying $1 to help cover shipping, you get to keep the free $39 bottle of premium harvest-fresh olive oil. These are good folks, highly respected throughout the olive oil world. They honor their word and offer a truly outstanding product. We personally love the club's olive oils, which is why we recommend them so highly.

 >> Click here to claim your $39 Bottle-for-a-Buck and bonus recipe ebook <<

P.P.P.S. And here are some comments from MDs about this olive oil:

“T. J. Robinson secures what I’ve found to be the purest, healthiest, and best-tasting olive oils on the planet. The result is extra virgin olive oil like none I had ever experienced before. They are remarkably bright, flavorful, fresh, and brimming with off-the-charts nutritional value. They are from the top award-winning farms in their native lands and never available anywhere else in the U.S. Thank you, T. J.”
—Joe W. Frazer III, MD, specialist in geriatrics and antiaging medicine. 

* * *

“These fresh-pressed olive oils take your favorite dishes to new heights of flavor. I know this personally because one of the ways I relax is by puttering around my kitchen. I happily drizzle these scrumptious oils over my Greek shrimp salad, bay-steamed halibut, baked wild salmon, balsamic chicken salad, julienne green beans and other veggies, just to mention a few of my ‘specialties of the house.’

“And it’s not just the fresh-pressed flavor I’m after. These harvest-fresh extra virgin olive oils are bursting with off-the-charts levels of polyphenols and antioxidants. These are among the nutrients that make olive oil renowned for its health benefits. And they are most abundant when olive oil is harvest-fresh.

“In studies, these nutrients have been shown to be associated with lower risk of heart disease, high blood pressure, and stroke. They may also help protect you against other conditions such as Alzheimer’s, osteoporosis, and even certain cancers.”
—Ronald Hoffman, MD, author of numerous books and articles for health professionals and the public. He is the host of the popular nationally syndicated radio program Intelligent Medicine, and the internet podcast of the same name.

* * *

When you click on the link below, you’ll see similar comments from many other olive oil lovers across America.

 >> Click here for more information on the Fresh-Pressed Olive Oil Club and to claim your risk-free invitation to try their independently lab-certified, 100% pure extra virgin olive oils from award-winning artisanal small farms. <<

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US household debt hits a new record, NY Fed finds

U.S. household debt climbed to a record $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, rising by $197 billion, according to the New York Fed. Mortgage balances increased by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt hit a new high of $1.23 trillion. Auto loans remained steady at $1.66 trillion, and student loans rose $15 billion to $1.65 trillion.

Delinquency rates were 4.5% overall, with serious delinquencies (90+ days overdue) increasing to 3.03%, up from 1.68% a year earlier. Student loan delinquencies surged after payment reporting resumed, with 9.4% now seriously delinquent.

Despite debt growth, the Fed noted mortgage delinquencies remain low due to strong home equity and strict lending standards. However, credit card and student loan delinquencies are rising, signaling growing strain among lower-income households.

The report follows the Fed’s second rate cut of 2025, as Chair Jerome Powell warned of a “bifurcated economy” — affluent consumers continue spending, while lower-income Americans are struggling under rising debt and higher costs. Read More.

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Consumer sentiment slides to near-lowest level on record as government shutdown drags on

U.S. consumer sentiment dropped sharply in November, falling to 50.3, near its lowest level on record, as the government shutdown dragged on and economic worries mounted, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey.

The decline—a 6% drop overall—was driven by a 17% fall in current personal finances and an 11% drop in business expectations, marking the weakest sentiment since June 2022, when inflation peaked. The downturn was broad-based across age, income, and political lines, except among wealthier Americans with significant stock holdings, who saw sentiment rise 11% amid market gains.

Inflation expectations edged up slightly to 4.7% for the next year, while long-term expectations dipped to 3.6%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target as tariffs push prices higher.

The report reflects growing public concern over the economic fallout of the prolonged shutdown and continued cost pressures, even as the Federal Reserve weighs further rate cuts. Final sentiment data for November will be released Nov. 21. Read More.

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Bessent says US housing market in 'recession' due to Federal Reserve interest rate policies

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the U.S. housing market may already be in a recession due to high interest rates, even as the broader economy remains relatively stable. In a CNN interview, he said the Federal Reserve’s policies have created distributional problems, disproportionately hurting lower-income Americans who hold more debt than assets. Bessent urged the Fed to cut rates further, arguing that lower mortgage rates could end the housing downturn. While the Fed has reduced its benchmark rate twice this year, mortgage rates—driven by long-term bond yields—remain elevated. Recent data from Freddie Mac shows the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.17%, the lowest in over a year, but home sales have stagnated around 4 million annually, compared to 5 million before the pandemic. Jessica Lautz of the National Association of Realtors noted that lower rates have improved affordability slightly, yet housing remains divided: wealthier buyers and cash purchasers continue to benefit from growing housing wealth, while first-time buyers face historic challenges, with their average age rising to 40. She described this as a “tale of two cities,” where the luxury housing market flourishes even as affordability worsens for everyday Americans. Read More.

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US Federal Reserve pumps cash into Wall Street as banking system shows signs of stress

Analysts are warning that early signs of another global credit crunch are appearing as liquidity tightens in financial markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve recently injected $50.35 billion into the banking system through repurchase agreements (repos)—the largest use of its emergency lending facility since 2021. This move, described by some as a “canary in the coal mine,” suggests that banks are facing short-term funding stress similar to conditions that preceded the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

The Fed’s intervention aimed to ease a “short-term” credit crunch, after U.S. financial institutions ran low on cash at the end of October. According to Henry Jennings of Marcus Today, the banking system’s “plumbing” was under pressure as money drained from the system, forcing the Fed to step in. The situation reflects the consequences of quantitative tightening (QT)—the process by which the Fed sells bonds or lets them mature to reduce liquidity—combined with heavy U.S. Treasury bond issuance to fund the federal deficit. Analysts believe this dual pressure has strained global money markets and may have prompted the Fed to end QT earlier than planned.

Financial experts, including RBA Governor Michele Bullock, maintain that the Fed’s actions are designed to prevent a broader credit crunch, though others caution that the need for intervention itself is troubling. Rising repo rates and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicate growing tension in short-term funding markets. Gerard Minack noted that “some people are now on high alert for signs of a material pickup in stress indicators,” even as broader markets remain complacent.

Adding to concern, the New York Federal Reserve, which acts as Wall Street’s banker, injected an additional $22 billion into the market days later, underscoring that the problem was not a one-off liquidity issue. Analysts warn that persistently rising funding rates—a sign of cash scarcity—could force banks to deleverage, potentially triggering wider instability. While ending QT may relieve some of the pressure, experts like Charlie Jamieson suggest that further policy intervention or even a return to quantitative easing (QE) may be necessary to restore balance. The developments have raised alarm among global central banks, including Australia’s Reserve Bank, which is closely watching for any signs that U.S. funding stress could spill over into international markets. Read More.