What happened

US on-highway diesel averaged $6.276 a gallon in the week of 19 October 2026, up from $6.179 a week earlier, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. The East Coast average was $5.984. The EIA’s October outlook put the September national average at $6.29 and said retail diesel will stay above $6 in October before easing slowly.

The Strait of Hormuz is still almost empty. IMF PortWatch daily counts show 26 transits in the week of 12 to 18 October, an average of 3.7 a day. Autumn 2025 averaged about 75 a day (Novus Data calculation from the PortWatch file, September to December 2025). On 18 October the count was 4.

Weekly US stocks gave a mixed picture. For the week ending 16 October, distillate stocks rose 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million, while crude fell 3.06 million barrels and gasoline fell 2.95 million, according to EIA data reported by Reuters. Refinery utilisation was 93.4%.

Why it matters

The EIA’s October outlook, released 6 October with inputs fixed on 1 October, says East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below the 2021 to 2025 seasonal average in September. It expects them to stay 20% to 30% below average through the winter. After a brief recovery in the fourth quarter, it forecasts a 2027 low of 22.6 million barrels in April, 21% below average.

The East Coast leans on imports and Gulf Coast shipments because it has limited refining capacity. The EIA said the region imported 124,000 barrels a day of distillate in 2025, about 10% of its consumption, and that imports usually reach about 15% of consumption in December to February. Those are the months when the Hormuz closure and record tanker rates matter most for a region that depends on shipped fuel.

On crude, the EIA assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter. It estimated production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels a day in September, down from a peak of 10.9 million in May, and forecast Brent at $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter. September’s Brent average was $114, with a daily peak of $131 on 15 September. The outlook cites “extreme tightness in diesel markets” as a driver of crude prices.

Diesel is a cost for almost everything that moves by truck, rail or ship, so a high price shows up in freight rates before it shows up in shelf prices. That link is an inference. The sources above do not measure it.

Who it reaches

US East Coast fuel distributors and heating oil buyers (sector). Stocks are well below normal going into winter, and the region relies on imports exactly when they matter most. Confidence: reported for stocks, forecast for winter.

Trucking and freight carriers (sector). Diesel above $6 is more than $2.60 above a year ago. The year-ago figure is derived from the EIA’s year-over-year change on its price page. Confidence: reported for the price, estimated for the year-ago level.

Tanker owners and charterers (sector). The EIA says tanker rates hit record levels in September and insurance costs are rising. Confidence: reported by the EIA, not independently checked by Novus Data.

What would change this view

• A Hormuz reopening. Transit counts in PortWatch moving back toward double digits a day would be the first sign.

• A larger East Coast stock build. Weekly EIA data put East Coast distillate stocks at 21.0 million barrels in the week ending 16 October. That is the fourth weekly fall in a row, and it is already below the 22.6 million barrels the outlook forecasts for April 2027, so the fourth quarter recovery the EIA expects has not shown up yet. Several weeks of builds would undercut the winter warning.

• Diesel retail price. A weekly national average falling back under $6.

• Newer EIA outlook. The next outlook is due on 10 November and will use inputs after the 2 October G7 announcement the October edition left out.

Sources

1. Weekly retail on-highway diesel prices, week of 19 October 2026. US Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

2. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, released 6 October 2026. US Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdf

3. US crude and gasoline stocks fall, distillates rise, EIA says. Reuters, via BOE Report, 21 October 2026. https://boereport.com/2026/10/21/us-crude-and-gasoline-stocks-fall-distillates-rise-eia-says/

4. Weekly East Coast distillate stocks (PADD 1). US Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_a_epd0_sae_mbbl_w.htm

5. Daily Chokepoints Data, Strait of Hormuz, data updated 20 October 2026. IMF PortWatch, downloaded 25 October 2026. https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/3da2b9ca97684916b75c4013f95d18ab/about

The Novus Data Briefing
Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Strait of Hormuz from the ISS. File image, 2022. NASA, public domain.

Good morning. Suez Canal transits ran 15% above their 2025 average in the latest IMF PortWatch week, the only plus sign in today's shipping table. The canal's comeback is one of today's four stories. The others: Gulf attacks moving inside the strait, diesel turning up again and a first court test of the Canada tariffs.

Rapid fire

• Low-value imports face earlier deadlines. US Customs wants entries for shipments worth $2,500 or less filed by arrival, not 15 days after, The Loadstar reported on 20 October 2026.

• Boxship orderbook hits a new high. New MSC and HMM orders lifted the post-2009 orderbook to 16.2m TEU, 46.5% of the fleet, Seatrade Maritime reported.

• Sanctioned tankers may return. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 19 October the US is building an approval process for blacklisted tankers to trade under approved owners; analysts see 14–24 VLCCs qualifying, per Splash247.

• India–New Zealand deal in force. From 20 October New Zealand removes tariffs on all its tariff lines; India liberalises about 70% of its own, ANI reported.

Hormuz and Musandam. File image, 2018. NASA, public domain.

Chokepoints and canal transits

Gulf attacks spread past the strait into Saudi waters

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 20 October 2026 that mines had set two tankers ablaze on a route Tehran has not authorised; neither ship has been identified, gCaptain reported, and the US military has called earlier such claims false. Verified attacks are spreading west: on 18 October the Joint Maritime Information Center raised its Arabian Gulf threat level to "substantial", after a tanker was hit 68 nautical miles off Jubail. That puts loading terminals and anchorages inside the risk zone, not just the transit, which should keep war-risk cover and waiting times high even as crude moves. Next: UKMTO's weekly overview, expected Friday.

Truck diesel pumps, Florida. File photo, 2025. DanTD, CC BY 4.0.

Energy and bunker costs

US diesel turns up again as fuel cargoes lag crude

The US average on-highway diesel price rose 9.7 cents to $6.276 a gallon as of 19 October 2026, the Energy Information Administration said, its first rise after three weekly falls. The agency's October outlook had forecast retail diesel staying above $6 through October. Crude is moving: Wright suggested Gulf crude flows were back to about 80% of pre-war levels while refined-product shipments stayed constrained, Investing.com reported. Many truckload fuel surcharges reset weekly against this EIA price, so shippers are likely to see the rise within about a week (confidence: estimated). Next: EIA's next weekly price, due 27 October.

Great Bitter Lake, Suez Canal. File image, 2023. Sentinel Hub/Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0.

Container shipping and freight rates

Maersk tells Suez it aims to be fully back by March

Maersk's chief operating officer, Rabab Boulos, told the Suez Canal Authority on 20 October 2026 that she hopes all the group's services will use the canal by March 2027, the Egyptian Gazette reported. Maersk made 276 canal transits in January to September, against 146 a year earlier, the authority said, per The Middle East Observer. BIMCO says the extra demand of about 10% created by Cape diversions is shrinking fast, which frees ships for Maersk and its rivals and should add pressure on Asia–Europe rates (confidence: estimated). Next: Gemini's new AE18 service is scheduled to leave Shanghai on 22 November, The Loadstar reported.

Ambassador Bridge, Windsor–Detroit. File photo, 2025. Crisco 1492, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Trade policy, tariffs and export controls

Cheese importer brings first court test of Canada tariffs

Gellert Global Group, a US food importer, sued at the Court of International Trade on 20 October 2026 to block the 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods, its lawyers said. It is the first challenge to that use of the 1930 statute, Reason reported. The suit argues the Trade Act of 1974 displaced it, and that cheese duties began a week after cheese was listed on 8 September, inside a 30-day wait. The administration cited Canadian liquor, automobile and dairy policies, the suit says. Importers, Gellert included, pay meanwhile (confidence: reported); the suit seeks refunds with interest. Next: a ruling on its injunction request.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch, data through 18 October 2026. PortWatch counts only ships visible on AIS; the JMIC advisory logged 254 Hormuz transits in the week to 14 October, gCaptain reported. Xeneta put Asia–North Europe spot at $2,946 per 40ft, up 2.5% on the week, Seatrade Maritime reported.

The six

Closes on Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

Settlements and closes from Yahoo Finance contract histories (Brent Dec, diesel Nov, copper Oct), the same contracts as Sunday.

Eight finer points

1. Salalah concession ends. Oman will not extend Salalah Port Services' concession, run by APM Terminals, beyond 1 November 2028, The Loadstar reported; the hub handled 4.3m TEU in 2025.

2. Queues off Fujairah. About 217 vessels were waiting at anchor near Fujairah and Khorfakkan on 18 October, the JMIC said, per Splash247.

3. Tank-car backlog cut. FreightCar America dropped 1,285 tank-car retrofits from backlog, doubting the customer will pay, and cut 2026 deliveries to 3,100–3,300, its 19 October release said.

4. Texas LNG seeks delay. Citing litigation, Glenfarne asked the Energy Department to push Texas LNG's export deadline to 2032; comments opened 20 October, Seatrade Maritime reported.

5. Aqaba transit jumps. Transit cargo through Jordan's Aqaba hit 1.8m tonnes in January–September, from 38,900 tonnes, mostly grain, Splash247 reported.

6. Malaysian rail freight date. East Coast Rail Link freight is due to start on 12 December; the Port Klang section needs another year, Malay Mail reported.

7. Houthis claim Yanbu strike. The Houthis claimed strikes on an Aramco facility at Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, Investing.com reported.

8. Jeddah joins ME2. Maersk said on 19 October it will add Jeddah to its Suez-routed India–Europe ME2 service, El Estrecho Digital reported.

See you Friday,
Gavin

Spot something wrong? Corrections are read first: aandg.novusdata@gmail.com.

Novus Data publishes analysis and commentary, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

The Novus Data Briefing
Wednesday, 21 October 2026

Strait of Hormuz from the ISS. File image, 2022. NASA, public domain.

Good morning. Suez Canal transits ran 15% above their 2025 average in the latest IMF PortWatch week, the only plus sign in today's shipping table. The canal's comeback is one of today's four stories. The others: Gulf attacks moving inside the strait, diesel turning up again and a first court test of the Canada tariffs.

Rapid fire

• Low-value imports face earlier deadlines. US Customs wants entries for shipments worth $2,500 or less filed by arrival, not 15 days after, The Loadstar reported on 20 October 2026.

• Boxship orderbook hits a new high. New MSC and HMM orders lifted the post-2009 orderbook to 16.2m TEU, 46.5% of the fleet, Seatrade Maritime reported.

• Sanctioned tankers may return. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 19 October the US is building an approval process for blacklisted tankers to trade under approved owners; analysts see 14–24 VLCCs qualifying, per Splash247.

• India–New Zealand deal in force. From 20 October New Zealand removes tariffs on all its tariff lines; India liberalises about 70% of its own, ANI reported.

Hormuz and Musandam. File image, 2018. NASA, public domain.

Chokepoints and canal transits

Gulf attacks spread past the strait into Saudi waters

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 20 October 2026 that mines had set two tankers ablaze on a route Tehran has not authorised; neither ship has been identified, gCaptain reported, and the US military has called earlier such claims false. Verified attacks are spreading west: on 18 October the Joint Maritime Information Center raised its Arabian Gulf threat level to "substantial", after a tanker was hit 68 nautical miles off Jubail. That puts loading terminals and anchorages inside the risk zone, not just the transit, which should keep war-risk cover and waiting times high even as crude moves. [GAVIN: confirm or rewrite] Next: UKMTO's weekly overview, expected Friday.

Truck diesel pumps, Florida. File photo, 2025. DanTD, CC BY 4.0.

Energy and bunker costs

US diesel turns up again as fuel cargoes lag crude

The US average on-highway diesel price rose 9.7 cents to $6.276 a gallon as of 19 October 2026, the Energy Information Administration said, its first rise after three weekly falls. The agency's October outlook had forecast retail diesel staying above $6 through October. Crude is moving: Wright suggested Gulf crude flows were back to about 80% of pre-war levels while refined-product shipments stayed constrained, Investing.com reported. Many truckload fuel surcharges reset weekly against this EIA price, so shippers are likely to see the rise within about a week (confidence: estimated). Next: EIA's next weekly price, due 27 October.

Great Bitter Lake, Suez Canal. File image, 2023. Sentinel Hub/Pierre Markuse, CC BY 2.0.

Container shipping and freight rates

Maersk tells Suez it aims to be fully back by March

Maersk's chief operating officer, Rabab Boulos, told the Suez Canal Authority on 20 October 2026 that she hopes all the group's services will use the canal by March 2027, the Egyptian Gazette reported. Maersk made 276 canal transits in January to September, against 146 a year earlier, the authority said, per The Middle East Observer. BIMCO says the extra demand of about 10% created by Cape diversions is shrinking fast, which frees ships for Maersk and its rivals and should add pressure on Asia–Europe rates (confidence: estimated). [GAVIN: confirm or rewrite] Next: Gemini's new AE18 service is scheduled to leave Shanghai on 22 November, The Loadstar reported.

Ambassador Bridge, Windsor–Detroit. File photo, 2025. Crisco 1492, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Trade policy, tariffs and export controls

Cheese importer brings first court test of Canada tariffs

Gellert Global Group, a US food importer, sued at the Court of International Trade on 20 October 2026 to block the 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods, its lawyers said. It is the first challenge to that use of the 1930 statute, Reason reported. The suit argues the Trade Act of 1974 displaced it, and that cheese duties began a week after cheese was listed on 8 September, inside a 30-day wait. The administration cited Canadian liquor, automobile and dairy policies, the suit says. Importers, Gellert included, pay meanwhile (confidence: reported); the suit seeks refunds with interest. Next: a ruling on its injunction request.

Shipping volume

IMF PortWatch, data through 18 October 2026. PortWatch counts only ships visible on AIS; the JMIC advisory logged 254 Hormuz transits in the week to 14 October, gCaptain reported. Xeneta put Asia–North Europe spot at $2,946 per 40ft, up 2.5% on the week, Seatrade Maritime reported.

The six

Closes on Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

Settlements and closes from Yahoo Finance contract histories (Brent Dec, diesel Nov, copper Oct), the same contracts as Sunday.

Eight finer points

1. Salalah concession ends. Oman will not extend Salalah Port Services' concession, run by APM Terminals, beyond 1 November 2028, The Loadstar reported; the hub handled 4.3m TEU in 2025.

2. Queues off Fujairah. About 217 vessels were waiting at anchor near Fujairah and Khorfakkan on 18 October, the JMIC said, per Splash247.

3. Tank-car backlog cut. FreightCar America dropped 1,285 tank-car retrofits from backlog, doubting the customer will pay, and cut 2026 deliveries to 3,100–3,300, its 19 October release said.

4. Texas LNG seeks delay. Citing litigation, Glenfarne asked the Energy Department to push Texas LNG's export deadline to 2032; comments opened 20 October, Seatrade Maritime reported.

5. Aqaba transit jumps. Transit cargo through Jordan's Aqaba hit 1.8m tonnes in January–September, from 38,900 tonnes, mostly grain, Splash247 reported.

6. Malaysian rail freight date. East Coast Rail Link freight is due to start on 12 December; the Port Klang section needs another year, Malay Mail reported.

7. Houthis claim Yanbu strike. The Houthis claimed strikes on an Aramco facility at Yanbu, on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, Investing.com reported.

8. Jeddah joins ME2. Maersk said on 19 October it will add Jeddah to its Suez-routed India–Europe ME2 service, El Estrecho Digital reported.

See you Friday,
Gavin

Spot something wrong? Corrections are read first: aandg.novusdata@gmail.com.

Novus Data publishes analysis and commentary, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.