With Friday's announcement from the Iranian Foreign Minister that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial ships during the ceasefire, and the subsequent confirmation from President Trump, equities rallied and oil prices dropped aggressively. In fact, more than 20 ships that had been held up within the Persian Gulf are now transiting the strait, temporarily ending the blockade that had frozen logistics lines for over a month. However, the opening of the strait is only in effect while the ceasefire holds—not only between the United States and Iran, but also between Israel and Lebanon. President Trump stated that the U.S. will keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran is finalized. Although there are still some major hurdles all parties need to work out, it is at least a start, and it also alleviates the humanitarian crisis that was taking place within the Persian Gulf, where a significant number of merchant mariners were essentially stuck at sea.

Shipping company Maersk provided a cautious statement around the announcement: “We have noted Iran's announcement on the Strait of Hormuz. The safety of our crew, vessels and customers' cargo remains our priority." German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd also noted, "If all open issues are cleared (i.e. insurance coverage, clear orders of Iranian government/military about exact sea corridor to be used and the sequence of ships leaving) we would prefer to pass the strait as soon as possible."

I'm sure we are all happy about this temporary resolution, but if the past gives us any indication of what may happen in the future when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, it may not see the same traffic flow as it did pre-conflict. That may sound hyperbolic, but we have a recent example that reflects the impact geopolitics can have on logistics routes and maritime insurance rates and policies.

In November of 2023, the Iranian-backed Houthi militia began striking commercial vessels near the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, a key access point for ships transiting through the Red Sea. This escalation immediately impacted shipping routes, with relatively dramatic effects on energy and global trade. The reason this event is comparable to the current situation is that insurance rates ramped up dramatically, and in most cases insurance companies did not want to cover tankers and cargo ships at all. As a result, shipping companies began using a longer route around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope off the coast of South Africa. Even after the escalation was resolved, shipping traffic has not returned to pre-escalation levels. In fact, traffic through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait is still down 40%, while ship arrivals at the Cape of Good Hope (the alternative route) are up around 143% since the Red Sea conflict began.

That said, there are several differences to note between these two conflicts, and the most important is that the Red Sea situation had an alternative route—it took longer and cost more, but shipping companies adjusted their logistics to reduce risk. The Strait of Hormuz does not have many alternatives yet, but we may begin seeing a significant increase in pipeline projects that would allow several different avenues to transport energy products.

For now, ships are making the effort to transit the strait, and the market will adjust as these new dynamics potentially create permanent logistical shifts. Even if it comes at a higher cost, in the end the market will work toward diversifying its risk away from this waterway.

NVDA Breaks Through $200 Again: What AI Giant Needs for Deeper Rally

Morning Trade Live

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

U.S. stocks surged to fresh record highs this week, capping a powerful rebound fueled by strong early earnings results, resilience in the labor market, and growing optimism around easing geopolitical risks. Investors largely looked past elevated oil prices and inflation concerns, pressing equities higher as corporate fundamentals came in better than expected. The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) settled at fresh record highs on Thursday with the NDX on a 12-session win streak – its longest since 2009. The surge in the SPX, representing roughly an 11% gain from a late-March correction, was driven by optimism over potential de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and continued enthusiasm for tech and artificial intelligence.

Despite the headwinds from the U.S. – Iran conflict in the Middle East, investors are in ‘Risk-On’ mode as they look ahead to better days for stocks. Markets roared higher on reports of a "tentative agreement" to extend a ceasefire and hopes that a worst-case scenario for global energy supplies could be avoided. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said that the war in Iran “should be ending pretty soon.”

Strong gains in the Mag7 stocks have helped push the Nasdaq-100 to record highs this week. Highlights include a 13% rally in Microsoft (MSFT) this week and over 5% gains in Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL). A rebound in the beaten down software stock sector has also provided tailwinds for tech equities. Massive gains in Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW) and Snowflake (SNOW) have pushed the Tech-Software ETF (IGV) up 13% this week as of Thursday’s close.

Oil prices are under pressure this week with crude futures (/CL) down 8% so far this week into Friday’s open. After hitting nearly $120 a barrel at the start of the U.S. – Iran conflict, oil is near $88 into the end of the week.  The fall in oil has created more optimism that an end to the conflict in the Middle East could create tailwinds for equities in the near-term.

With the stock rally to record highs, volatility has fallen sharply this month. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was above the 30 level at the end of March but has fallen nearly 30% this month back near the 17 level.

Despite lingering concerns over elevated oil prices and inflation, investors appeared to prioritize positive earnings momentum and perceived economic stability over geopolitical risk. With earnings season still in its early stages, investors are now watching whether corporate results can continue to justify elevated valuations after the swift move to record highs. While strategists caution that breadth remains narrow and markets look extended in the near term, the tone has clearly shifted back toward growth and earnings durability. As long as profits continue to surprise to the upside and macro conditions remain stable, Wall Street appears willing to keep buying the rally—even at record levels.

Morning Minute

LYV Found Liable in Illegal Monopoly: What Happens Next for Music Industry?

The Watch List

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Netflix (NFLX) earnings are due this afternoon, as the streaming giant reassess its situation after losing out against its archrival Paramount Skydance (PSKY) to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). The Street’s expectations are for NFLX to come in with $0.81 EPS against last year’s figure of $0.66 (+22.7%) and $12.17B revenue vs. $10.54B (+15.4%). 

The all-out bidding war between NFLX and PSKY had enough drama and twists for its own original TV series, with Paramount perhaps achieving a pyrrhic victory after sealing the costly $111B acquisition (a cash payment of $31 per WBD share) while Netflix reaped a $2.8B breakup payment from the failed deal. The collapse of the deal also resulted in an abrupt upside swing for Netflix after months of steady declines beginning with the Oct. 21 earnings and eventually resulting in a roughly -39% move at the 52-week lows of 75.01 on Feb. 23. But shares are now up 43.6% from that point as of yesterday’s close, filling a small gap from Dec. 2 and closing near the highs yesterday at 107.71.

Although Netflix no longer reports direct subscriber numbers, analysts track strong growth through its biannual engagement report. However, Netflix also in March announced a bump in subscription prices – the second in under two years. The Standard plan with Ads saw a $1 increase to $8.99/month, while the Standard and Premium plans both rose $2 to $19.99/month and $26.99/month, respectively.

Analysts seem more bullish on Netflix heading into earnings, as this week saw price target increases from Keybanc ($115 from $108, kept overweight), MoffettNathanson ($120 from $115, kept buy), Deutsche Bank ($100 from $98, kept hold), and Wedbush ($118 from $115, kept outperform). Wedbush noted consistent quarter-over-quarter topline growth and looked favorably on domestic price increases, saying Netflix’s ad revenue could at least double to approximately $3B in 2026 with “significant opportunities remaining in 2027 and beyond.”

Netflix’s chart offers an interesting technical picture with price remaining in a tight, narrow upward channel that began in mid-March. Momentum commonly slows heading into earnings as traders grow wary of establishing new positions into an event risk situation, but Netflix’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows it making new highs along with price and moving further into the overbought area. Notable upside areas to watch include a relative high near 110 from early December and a double-top around 116, both of which align with the post-earnings gap down from October. To the downside, the 100 level stands out as another area to watch as it represents a closing high after a gap down on Dec. 1 and a subsequent high, as well as the 90.50 level.

Meanwhile, the options market is looking for a potential expected move of +/-7.1 (6.7%) for the monthly Apr. 17 expiration, while the next monthly expiration on May 15 projects a +/-10.6 range (9.8%).

Morning Minute

NFLX Earnings Spotlight Shifts After Backing Away from WBD Merger

Market On Close

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

A lesser-discussed market that has experienced significant supply tightening as a result of the Iran conflict is helium.

Helium is a critical input for healthcare devices, particularly for cooling MRI scanners, and it is also essential in the production of semiconductors and fiber-optic cables. Although helium is the second-most abundant element in the universe, economically recoverable production on Earth is highly concentrated, and logistical routes have become even more complicated due to the conflict.

The United States, Qatar, and Russia are among the world’s leading helium exporters. Qatar alone accounts for approximately 30% of global helium supply, but due to the Iran conflict and its impact on the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, production has been halted. In addition, helium exports by tanker have been severely disrupted by instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

This has left the United States, Russia, and to a lesser extent Algeria to help offset the global supply shortfall. Unfortunately, overnight Russia announced temporary export controls on helium in an effort to protect domestic supplies. It is also worth noting that fiber-optic production is critical for drone manufacturing, which is another factor behind Russia’s decision to restrict exports.

Under the new framework, any helium exports outside of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)—which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia—will require additional approval from the Russian government. These export controls could remain in place through 2027.

The downstream implications could be significant, particularly for the semiconductor industry and for countries such as Taiwan that rely heavily on helium imports. Unfortunately, even though the United States leads the world in helium production, it may not be able to fully offset the loss of Qatari and Russian helium flows. This imbalance could lead to a rapid increase in prices and potentially create production shortfalls in what has arguably been the market’s hottest structural theme over the past several years: semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

Several major companies have meaningful exposure to the helium supply chain. Exxon Mobil (XOM) operates a large helium facility in LaBarge, Wyoming, which produces approximately 20% of the world’s helium supply. Linde (LIN) also has significant exposure through helium sourcing and refining, along with Air Products and Chemicals Inc (APD).

Depending on the duration of these supply disruptions, costs across electronics, semiconductor manufacturing, and medical devices could begin to rise rapidly. With limited alternative sources able to ramp quickly, the burden falls unevenly on downstream industries that rely heavily on steady helium access.

Morning Minute

TSLA Bulls Take Wheel Tuesday, Shares Show Long Road to Recovery

Market On Close

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

U.S. Stocks were under pressure throughout the month of March as the U.S.-Iran war hit sentiment. Despite the 70% jump in Oil prices this year, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) made a significant rebound to recoup all of its losses since the war started as of Monday’s closing price. The resiliency for stocks is based on optimism for a resolution to the war but also for expectations of a positive earnings season.

Goldman Sachs (GS) kicked off earnings season on Monday morning and posted an earnings and revenue beat in its first quarter report, thanks to record equities trading and stronger investment banking revenues. Despite the beat, the stock fell nearly 2% yesterday as trading in its fixed income, currencies and commodities unit was $4.01 billion, well short of the $4.92 billion consensus estimate for FICC trading. With the stock up over 80% over the last year, the bar was high so maybe the slight sell-off was not surprising.

This morning, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all reported quarterly results. JPMorgan reported Q1 EPS $5.94 versus a consensus $5.51and revenue of $49.8B and managed revenue $50.5B versus the expected $48.9B. Strong performance in investment banking and markets – both up 20% with average loan growth of 11% year-over-year. The stock was down slightly post results as the bank lowered its guidance for full-year 2026 net interest income, a key driver of bank earnings, from the previous $104.5 billion to about $103 billion. Investment banking fees jumped 28% to $2.88 billion, or about $260 million more than expected, on higher mergers advisory and stock underwriting fees. Another factor helping the bank top expectations in the quarter: it set aside less money for loan losses than analysts had anticipated.

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, commented: "The Firm delivered strong results in the first quarter, reporting net income of $16.5 billion." Dimon continued: "Performance was strong across our businesses. Dimon added: "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Dimon cited "significant" risks, including geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, and persistent inflation, causing cautious sentiment despite strong results.

Wells Fargo (WFC) stock is also down slightly this morning. Wells Fargo showed mixed results: a 15% increase in EPS to $1.60 and revenue growth to $21.45 billion. While beating profit expectations, the revenue fell slightly short of analysts' estimations. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf commented, "We saw continued positive impacts from the investments we have been making with diluted earnings per share increasing 15%, revenue increasing 6%, loans increasing 11%, and deposits increasing 7% compared to a year ago. Revenue growth was driven by both a 5% increase in net interest income and an 8% increase in noninterest income.

JPM, WFC and GS stocks all hit all-time highs this January so expectations for earnings were elevated going into the reports.  The overarching theme is one of solid, resilient performance that managed to surpass expectations despite significant macroeconomic volatility. The banking sector has shown remarkable ability to navigate complex conditions—including geopolitical tensions (Iran) and AI-driven market changes—by delivering solid, albeit moderating, profits. However, the market remains cautious about the rest of 2026, focusing more on forward guidance than past results. It’s been a solid start to earnings season from the financial sector but can that spread to the broader market amid all of the macroeconomic headwinds?!

Morning Minute

Charts to Watch: SPX, PLTR, NVDA

The Watch List

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

After ceasefire talks ended in a stalemate, President Trump ordered a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting ships and tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports. The move is widely being viewed as a strategic pressure campaign designed to force Iran back to the negotiation table.

Equity futures pulled back overnight, but the E-mini S&P 500 is attempting to use the 50-day simple moving average as an area of support after closing above that level with conviction last week. Equity traders appear optimistic that this geopolitical conflict will move toward a resolution in the coming weeks, and for now, the market is largely discounting the broader impact on energy markets and other commodities.

As expected, WTI crude has responded sharply to these developments, moving back above the $100 level while keeping the technical bullish trend intact. Prices continue to print higher lows and remain within a positive ascending channel, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.

The best-case scenario is that another ceasefire meeting is announced in the coming days and that military ordnance activity from the U.S., Iran, and Israel remains relatively limited and manageable. The worst-case scenario is that a tanker destined for countries such as China or India is prevented from transiting the strait by either the U.S. or Iran. Such an event could pull those countries into the conflict in some capacity, further tightening global energy supplies, pushing prices materially higher, and potentially making the strait even more kinetic.

On the global energy front, the physical market continues to see prices rise, and bidding wars are beginning to intensify. Even if a resolution were reached today, from a logistics standpoint it would still take weeks, if not months, for shipping lanes and tanker flows to normalize.

That said, the market remains a forward-pricing mechanism. Until the 50-day simple moving average is broken to the downside for the S&P 500, or even the Nasdaq-100, equity markets are operating under the assumption that a cycle bottom may already be in place.

Morning Minute

Is the AI Infrastructure Boom Real? CRWV, Chipmakers, and Concentration Risk

Market On Close

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Earnings season begins anew this week, with major financial companies leading the charge as per usual against a backdrop of a broader market that saw sharp gains after the U.S.-Iran war ceasefire making for an easing – though still tense – geopolitical framework. U.S. and Iranian diplomats are meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan during the weekend to continue these negotiations, while Israeli and Lebanese representatives will meet in Washington, D.C. this week to discuss deescalation in their own conflicts. Traders likely will be closely watching these situations for clues about the market’s trajectory this week.

In terms of performance of major equity indices on the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) closed down -0.11%, the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gained +0.14%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT) was down -0.22%. Crude oil (/CL) was one of the most notable movers, with futures plunging -14.38% on the week after the reopening of the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.

As for notable earnings, Goldman Sachs (GS) will kick things off in tomorrow’s premarket along with Fastenal (FAST). Big banks continue to be the focus on Tuesday, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Blackrock (BLK) all reporting before the open, along with healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Wednesday morning’s financial earnings include Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), and PNC Financial (PNC); meanwhile, ASML Holding (ASML) will give insights into the crucial semiconductor sector at that same time.

Thursday’s headliner is the biggest name of the week in terms of market cap with a figure of around $1.7 trillion, and perhaps the most impactful of all – Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), a foundry that produces more than 90% of the world’s advanced computer chips. Thursday’s financials take a backseat to heavyweights such as Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), and Abbott Labs (ABT), but regional banks start coming into focus here with Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Citizens Financial Group (CFG) among others. All these names report in the premarket with the exception of Netflix.

Finally, Friday’s earnings action once again focuses on regional banks with names like Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and Regions Financial (RF) to round out the week.

Given the heavy emphasis on financial earnings this week, traders may be looking toward the State Street Financial Sector ETF (XLF) for a bird’s eye view of the big banks as an overall group. The XLF saw a sharp bounce alongside the broader market in recent weeks after bottoming out at 47.67 on Mar. 27 for a +2.66% rally, particularly the 2.6% upside gap on April 8. The upside move broke through a downward channel that began with the all-time highs of 56.52 on Jan. 6, but shares paused just above the 51 area that marks a series of repeated lows from June to November.

Examining options activity for the XLF heading into this onslaught of financial earnings, the market shows a potential expected move of about +/-1.4, or roughly 2.8%, for the Apr. 17 monthly expiration. The next monthly expiration for May 15 comes in at around +/- 2.8, approximately 5.6%. 

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Markets staged a measured recovery during the week of April 6, 2026, as investors balanced easing geopolitical tensions with a dense slate of economic data and the early stages of earnings season. A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East helped stabilize energy markets after weeks of extreme volatility, allowing risk assets to regain footing. Major indexes notched a second consecutive weekly gain, reinforcing the idea that, despite persistent macro headwinds, the market continues to show resilience and a willingness to lean into constructive developments.

The tone entering the week was cautiously optimistic. WTI crude oil, while still elevated, traded in a more contained range near the $100 level after prior swings between $120 and the mid-$70s. That stabilization helped bring volatility lower, with the VIX slipping back below 20, signaling reduced demand for near-term hedging. At the same time, Treasury yields softened across the curve and the U.S. dollar declined for a second straight week, easing financial conditions and supporting a broader “risk-on” rotation.

Sector performance confirmed that shift. Industrials, technology, and consumer discretionary led the market higher, while the energy sector lagged, giving back some of its recent outperformance as oil prices cooled. Strength in transports, industrials, and materials such as copper pointed to continued economic durability, supported by robust non-residential fixed investment, which remains a key pillar offsetting lingering stagflation concerns.

Within technology, however, dispersion remains pronounced. The PHLX semiconductor index (SOX) pushed to new all-time highs, driven by continued demand tied to AI infrastructure and capital investment. In contrast, the software ETF (IGV) remained near multi-year lows, reflecting ongoing pressure on application software companies as investors reassess competitive moats in an AI-driven environment. This divergence underscores a market that is not uniformly bullish on technology, but instead highly selective.

Economic data throughout the week reinforced a narrative of resilience paired with persistent inflation pressure. The ISM Services PMI came in at 54%, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion, with the New Orders Index surging to 60.6%, its strongest level since early 2023. However, inflation pressures remained evident, with the Prices Index jumping to 70.7%, a 17-month high. Similarly, the New York Fed’s one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while the University of Michigan survey showed expectations climbing to 4.8%, reflecting growing consumer sensitivity to energy and food prices.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE, rose 0.4% month over month and 3.1% year over year, reinforcing the view that disinflation progress has stalled. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remained low, with the four-week average near 207,800, indicating a labor market that continues to provide policymakers with flexibility to maintain a restrictive stance.

Friday’s CPI report added nuance to the inflation outlook. Headline inflation rose approximately 0.9% on the month and 3.3% year over year, driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy costs, while core CPI remained more contained at 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. The divergence between headline and core measures helped ease some fears of a broader inflation resurgence, even as energy remains a wildcard.

The start of earnings season will add another layer to the market narrative, beginning with Goldman Sachs (GS) on Monday, which set the tone for major financials. Goldman’s results may highlight steady capital markets activity and resilient trading revenues, suggesting that institutional flows remain active despite macro uncertainty. Bank reports may also underscore how higher-for-longer rates continue to support profitability across the banking sector.

That narrative ties directly into what investors are watching across other key names in the weeks ahead. Companies such as ASML and TSMC will provide critical insight into the durability of global semiconductor demand and capital expenditure cycles tied to AI infrastructure. At the same time, Netflix (NFLX) will serve as a bellwether for consumer spending and pricing power in digital services. Together, these companies span the key pillars of the current market narrative: financial liquidity, AI-driven capital investment, and consumer demand resilience.

Looking ahead, investors will continue to monitor upcoming economic releases, including PPI, initial jobless claims, and housing data, alongside the next wave of earnings. The interaction between macro data and corporate guidance will be critical in determining whether the current recovery can extend further.

For now, the market’s message is one of cautious resilience. A ceasefire has eased immediate geopolitical fears, yields and volatility have moderated, and equities have responded with measured strength. Yet beneath the surface, inflation pressures, policy uncertainty, and sector-level dispersion remain defining features—suggesting that while the market is recovering, it is far from settled.

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 8% from its year-to-date lows as ceasefire hopes have begun to filter into the market. However, it is not just optimism that has fueled this relatively swift recovery; the move has also been driven by market mechanics.

Volatility, as measured by the VIX, remained above the 20 level for 10 consecutive weeks, a unique occurrence that has only happened once over the past year, during what many referred to as the “Tariff Tantrum” of 2025. This prolonged period of elevated volatility coincided with a pronounced put/call skew in both index options and mega-cap equities, with positioning heavily tilted toward the downside. Traders were paying substantial premiums to hedge portfolios or express bearish views.

But, as with most things in markets, rebalancing was eventually warranted. With even a modest improvement in the news flow, we have begun to see that bearish put skew start to unwind. As traders close out bearish positions, dealers are forced to reposition their own books, often by buying back futures contracts to rebalance gamma and volatility exposure.

This type of repositioning can create sharp and sometimes violent market swings, while also adding momentum to bullish moves. In other words, part of this rally has been driven by a volatility crush and systematic positioning reset rather than purely fundamental improvement.

Liquidity has also improved. The CME liquidity tool is showing an increase in book depth, that is, the number of contracts resting on the bid and ask, which tends to have a direct relationship with volatility. Greater book depth generally helps dampen volatility, although liquidity conditions still have room to improve further.

Once again, the conditions were in place for the market to reset positioning, but that does not necessarily mean volatility is behind us. As we head into the weekend, ceasefire negotiations will continue to drive headlines, and markets can reprice risk very quickly.

It is also important to note that earnings season begins Monday, with Goldman Sachs(GS) reporting before the equity open. Earnings could begin to shift investor focus away from geopolitical developments and back toward other perceived risk areas in the market, including the health of the private credit market and the ongoing question of software “cannibalization” driven by A.I.

Danielle DiMartino Booth on Fed's 'Difficult Position' & Stagflation Concerns

Market On Close

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement. 

Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

From a technical standpoint, oil has fractured, but the broader trend has not yet broken.

Yesterday, WTI crude dropped more than 12% following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Iran conflict, driven by hopes that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may begin to normalize over the coming months and that the risk of energy infrastructure being targeted by military strikes could diminish.

It is no surprise that the $100 level for WTI has acted as major resistance. Although prices briefly advanced to $110, the market has been unable to sustain that move — and rightfully so.

This time is different in some respects. As the United States has become the world’s largest oil producer, its reliance on certain global crude flows has declined, though not entirely. The key issue remains the supply of medium-sour and heavy-sour crude, which the United States does not produce in significant quantities.

These grades are critical for refining heavier byproducts such as diesel, bunker fuel, plastics, and a wide range of industrial chemicals needed to sustain the global economy.

However, as with nearly all goods, there comes a point where demand destruction sets in or alternatives begin to emerge when prices rise too far. We are now seeing those adjustments take place in a pronounced way.

In South Asian markets, the Philippines has implemented significant conservation measures reminiscent of COVID-era restrictions, including a shift to a four-day workweek and regulations on air-conditioning usage.

That said, the Strait of Hormuz remains the key bottleneck and will continue to be the primary focus as ceasefire negotiations expand over the weekend.

For now, daily tanker traffic remains very light, but one bright spot is that orders are beginning to pick up.

China’s teapot refiners have placed new orders for Iranian crude following the price pullback over the last two days. Taiwan’s CPC Corporation, Taiwan has also placed a tanker order for 2 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude, an amount estimated to cover roughly two weeks of domestic usage. In addition, Glencore has reportedly placed new orders for oil supplies. All of these shipments, however, must still pass through the Strait in order for the transactions to be completed.

For now, significant questions remain around how long the ceasefire may hold. If it fails, oil prices could still advance materially higher. However, any form of a sustainable agreement could bring WTI back toward a retest of the $75 level, which may provide a meaningful tailwind for equities and potentially allow markets to rally back toward all-time highs.

Ben Emons on Middle East Risk & the Fragility of Global Oil Markets

Market On Close

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement. 

Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Markets show extreme volatility in early trading after news broke last night about a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, shortly before President Trump’s 8pm ET deadline after which he said he would order major strikes on Iranian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges.

Prices are moving fast, but for now S&P 500 futures (/ES) are up about +2.75%, the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ) jumped roughly +3.48%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 futures (/RTY) surged around +3.83%. Crude oil futures (/CL) show the most severe move of all major futures products, plunging about -17% as part of the ceasefire agreement which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz; perhaps one of the most important maritime choke points in the world because about 25% of all seaborne petroleum products must pass through it. Volatility also is sharply lower in early trading, with the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) down 20% near the 20 level after closing at 25.78 yesterday and reaching highs of 28.

The broad strokes of the agreement are that the U.S. and Israel will suspend bombing and other attacks on Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said transit would also need to be coordinated with Iranian military forces. Tehran additionally released a 10-point proposal of other conditions, which President Trump called “a workable basis on which to negotiate” on social media. The Iranian proposal includes language about “establishment of a secure transit protocol in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring Iran’s control under the agreed framework.”

The news is having significant effects on individual stocks as well. Delta Airlines (DAL) is up about +12.2% which is partially due to its quarterly earnings report beating on the top and bottom line this morning, but also because skyrocketing fuel costs due to the Strait of Hormuz closure presented serious headwinds for airlines in recent weeks. Delta was uniquely well situated to weather these fluctuations as it is the only airline to own an oil refinery, but the news is nonetheless positive for the industry as a whole with other stocks like United Airlines (UAL, +13.00%) and Southwest Airlines (LUV, +11.04%) near the top of the premarket movers. Other notable upside movers include cruise lines like Carnival (CCL, +10.91%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH, +8.7%) from lower fuel costs for ships and the easing of geopolitical tensions.

On the other side of the spectrum, energy companies are taking a beating this morning with names like APA Corp. (APA, -9.24%), Occidental Petroleum (OXY, -8.01%), Devon Energy (DVN, - 6.01%) and ExxonMobil (XOM, -5.50%) facing significant declines. Chemical companies like Dow Inc. (DOW, -8.36%), LyondellBasell (LYB, - 8.20%), and CF Industries (CF, -10.15%) are also showing outsized losses as the ceasefire eases concerns about supply chain disruptions.

‘Risk-On’ trading will be the narrative today as investors rotate into stocks while a falling U.S. Dollar and a slide in Yields are also lending support to equities. Focus for investors will remain on headline news out of the Middle East along with oil prices dumping as traders breathe a sigh of relief on the ceasefire – for the time being.  

Technical Tuesday: SPX, MO, CVX

The Watchlist

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement. 

Charles Schwab and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions. Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Software continues to struggle as markets worry whether AI will be able to take over the sector. Still, there must be humans at the wheel telling AI what to make – and some software companies are quickly adapting. One of them is Progress Software (PRGS), which is integrating AI into its business software offerings. CEO Yogesh Gupta joined Trading 360 to talk through the latest financials and how they’re scaling their AI use.

Progress stresses cybersecurity within their suite of products, along with workflow automation and a broad management suite. Its Kendo UI allows developers to build custom tools on top of their platform, and they offer e-commerce integration, among other features. The company says it serves 80% of the Fortune 500 and boast a 99% customer retention rate.

Recent clients include the Los Angeles County MTA, the Institute of Cancer Research, and Kearny Bank, representing a broad swath of sectors. The success stories Progress offers on its website often revolve around creating a straightforward, centralized database and custom applications, as well as offering faster speed and security with their data centers.

In December, Progress announced Agentic AI as part of their Telerik and Kendo UI offerings, saying that “What once took days can now take hours.” They added coding assistants, debugging, and the ability for users to communicate with their apps in “natural language.”

After covering several software companies for this column, it seems more like the SaaS-pocalypse could be a labor issue rather than a sector issue. It seems like a lot of software companies are able to rapidly adapt, and it is extremely expensive and time-consuming for big companies to migrate to different system vendors. Instead, being able to talk to the AI, or “vibecode,” to some extent removes the need for complex coding knowledge.

However, coders and engineers are likely to adapt into system architects, as organization and structure remain a human job. Humans need to know the end point they’re looking for to use AI most effectively.

It does seem that the market, and clients, expect every software provider to have an AI option. This puts the onus on software companies to integrate AI and be responsible for all the challenges that lie therein, including accuracy and security. If AI, as it has before, deletes a database or exposes sensitive information, the providers might be blamed, creating risk.

Turning to the financials, in 1Q26, Progress reported adjusted EPS of $1.60 and revenue of $247.8 million, both of which beat Street estimates. Annualized recurring revenue hit $863 million, +2% year-over-year. Operating margins were around 19%, with free cash flow of $98.6 million.

Breaking down the revenue, Progress makes three times as much revenue from maintenance, software-as-a-service, and professional services than licensing their software. Investors may want to gauge the level of AI replacement risk for services, or whether AI is a value enhancement.

For the full year, Progress raised its adjusted earnings outlook to $5.91-$6.03 vs FactSet expectations of $5.88. They also lifted the bottom of their revenue guidance, now projecting $988 million to $1 billion.

Multiple analysts lowered their price targets after the report. Wedbush wrote that their AI strategy is still in early innings, and “conservatism” is the watchword amid broader pressure on the SaaS sector. However, Wedbush also called it an “under the radar software play” and kept an Outperform rating.

The stock has declined sharply since the end of 2024, falling from a height of $70.56 to around $25/share. It’s down almost 60% year-over-year and has continued to move lower after earnings. The intense pressure has pushed the stock into oversold territory on a technical level.

Sector sell-offs can create opportunities for the discerning stock picker. Investors may want to comb through software as it is battered both by AI and the broader market backdrop if they believe in a bounce back.

Watch the full interview below:

Progress Software CEO on Earnings & Monetizing the AI Shift

Trading 360

Riesgo: U.S. Economy Flexible in Crude Oil Volatility, Software & Space Opportunities

Morning Movers

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit a seven-month low on Monday and were below a key support level of $170 a share to start the week. It was looking bleak for the AI behemoth but after a late week surge the stock is back above $176 a share. The question is, has the stock bottomed as good news surrounds the company?

Nvidia remains the undisputed bellwether of the artificial intelligence trade, but as its market capitalization pushes deeper into the multi trillion dollar range, the debate around NVDA stock is no longer about whether the company is executing, it is about how much perfection is already priced in. The company’s most recent earnings report underscores both sides of that equation.

Last Quarter, Nvidia reported fiscal 4Q 2026 results that again exceeded Wall Street expectations, delivering record revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $1.62, up 82% from a year earlier. The company’s Data Center segment generated $62.3 billion, representing 75% year-over-year growth, as hyperscalers and enterprises continued to invest aggressively in AI infrastructure. Free cash flow for the quarter came in at $34.9 billion, highlighting the company’s ability to convert revenue growth into real cash generation. All the CapEx spending from the tech sector has benefitted Nvidia greatly.

Bulls point to Nvidia’s evolution from a chip supplier into a full stack AI infrastructure provider. Networking revenue surged more than 260% year over year in 4Q, reflecting the importance of NVLink and high speed interconnects in large scale AI clusters. This deeper integration makes Nvidia harder to displace and raises switching costs for customers.

Valuation has come in from elevated levels with the stock now trading with a forward P/E of just 21x, indicating that the market is pricing the stock based on significant expected earnings growth, with the valuation becoming more attractive relative to its historical averages. This is just above the forward P/E of the S&P 500, which doesn’t have close to the growth that Nvidia does.

While fundamentals remain extraordinary, the bear case centers on expectations, concentration risk, and macro sensitivity. The valuation level assumes continued hypergrowth well into the future. Any sign of slowing AI spending or even a moderation rather than a decline could compress multiples quickly. Management itself has acknowledged that capacity constraints and supply chain complexity remain ongoing challenges, particularly as the company ramps newer architectures, including Blackwell and Rubin Chips.

How long will the demand remain for Nvidia, and is there a peak spend on the horizon? Despite blowout earnings, NVDA shares have at times struggled in 2026 amid broader risk off sentiment, elevated volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty. Despite the great fundamentals and earnings, even Nvidia is not immune from macro and market risks.

Nvidia’s latest earnings confirm that the company is executing at an almost unprecedented level. However, the stock now represents not just confidence in AI, but confidence in near flawless execution looking forward. It’s the biggest component in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).

For long term investors, NVDA may be a quality way to express conviction in the AI trade. Although the stock is down 5% this year and off 16% from its all-time high, you have to look at a longer term view of the stock as to why we have seen consolidation over the last several months. Nvidia shares are up over 570% over the last three years, so it has had a spectacular run. The question for investors is: have the shares hit a near-term bottom and can the stock get back to its recent resistance level around $195?

Crypto Corner: Mined in America Act & Quantum Computing Risk

Crypto Corner

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Wall Street slipped back into a defensive posture as investors gave back part of this week’s powerful rebound and reassessed the geopolitical backdrop after President Trump’s address on Iran made clear that the conflict may intensify before it ends. The market had just posted its strongest back-to-back daily gains of the year, but that burst of relief buying gave way to another round of risk aversion as traders confronted the possibility of a longer war, firmer energy prices, and fewer near-term options for central bank relief. However, by the end of Thursday, markets were starting to come back around.

In Trump’s speech, he warned that the U.S. would hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks, a message that markets interpreted as escalation, not resolution. That pushed investors back toward the dollar and away from cyclical risk. Oil (/CL) moved sharply higher again, the dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields stayed elevated, and Bitcoin (/BTC) fell as speculative assets came back under pressure. Gold (/GC) and silver (/SI) also dropped, reflecting a market that is increasingly focused on the inflationary consequences of war and the possibility that higher energy prices could keep interest rates restrictive for longer.

Sector leadership told the same story. Utilities, energy, and consumer staples were the relative winners as investors favored yield, essential demand, and commodity-linked defense. Consumer discretionary lagged as the market grew more cautious on the consumer outlook, especially if higher fuel costs and broader uncertainty begin to weigh on spending. This is a classic risk-off tape: money is moving toward stability, cash flow, and necessity, while economically sensitive and sentiment-driven corners of the market continue to lose sponsorship.

This week’s economic data offered only partial reassurance. Weekly jobless claims fell to 202,000, a sign that layoffs remain subdued, but the broader labor picture still looks stagnant rather than strong. Job openings fell to 6.88 million in February, hiring dropped to 4.85 million, and private payroll growth has remained soft. ADP showed 62,000 private-sector jobs added in March after 66,000 in February, with gains concentrated in healthcare and construction. That reinforces the idea of a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market: employers are not cutting aggressively, but they are not expanding much either.

Today’s labor-market report now becomes the next major test. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the March Employment Situation at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to rebound by about 60,000 after February’s 92,000 decline. Private payrolls are expected to rise by about 70,000 after falling 86,000 the prior month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%, unchanged from February. Markets will also be watching wage data closely: economists expect average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, versus 0.4% and 3.8% in the prior report. The average workweek is expected to hold at 34.3 hours, the same as last month.

The setup around this report is unusually tense because the stock market will be closed for Good Friday, leaving investors an entire weekend to digest the numbers. A stronger-than-expected report could reinforce the view that the Fed cannot pivot easily while war-driven inflation risks are building. A weaker report may not be comforting either, because it would deepen fears that the economy is slowing into an energy shock instead of gliding toward a soft landing. In that sense, this report is less about a simple good-news or bad-news reaction and more about which side of the stagflation debate gains the upper hand.

Looking ahead, next week keeps the focus squarely on growth, inflation, and Fed policy. Investors will be watching the ISM Services report, consumer credit, the minutes from the Fed’s March meeting, the monthly wholesale trade and inventory releases, and the next CPI and real earnings reports. Those releases should help clarify whether the economy is merely cooling or whether it is starting to buckle under the combined pressure of higher energy costs, tight financial conditions, and geopolitical instability.

The bottom line is that markets are no longer trading on a simple war headline alone. They are trading on the interaction between war, inflation, rates, and growth. Until investors see either a de-escalation in Iran or clearer evidence that inflation will not be reignited by the energy shock, volatility is likely to remain the defining feature of this market.

Eric Diton on Small Caps, International Stocks, NVDA & Opportunity Beyond Big Tech

Trading 360

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Crude oil futures (/CL) are spiking and remain elevated over 13% as traders continue to digest President Trump’s speech about the Iran War last night. Trump said the U.S. military operation was “very close” to ending but also that major strikes on Iran are still in the works. However, Iranian representatives have repeatedly denied that they have asked for a ceasefire and the critical oil route chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial vessels.

The reaction for markets was severe as the final trading day of the holiday-shortened week dawns, with S&P 500 futures (/ES) sinking about -1.5% and the small-cap focused Russell 2000 futures (/RTY) falling roughly -1.9%. Volatility is also on the move as VIX futures (/VX) surged up to 26.50 from the previous close of 24.35.

Energy traders may be watching the State Street Energy Sector ETF (XLE), which saw a -7.1% plunge as of yesterday’s close after hitting its all-time highs of 63.46 on Monday. This fund is dominated by two companies: Exxon Mobil (XOM) at about 23.4% and Chevron (CVX) at about 17.2%. Other major names include ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG Resources (EOG), SLB (SLB), and Valero (VLO).

The technical picture for XLE shows a chart with two distinct phases. The first was a stabilization and subsequent rangebound period after the major tariff announcements in April and concluding near the end of 2025. The current 2026 trading year is a stark change, with the fund shooting up almost +32% year-to-date as of yesterday’s close.

Yesterday’s price action brought a close of 58.97, which was notable because it was slightly below a trendline beginning near the January lows and also because this is exactly where the 21-day Exponential Moving Average ended up as well. However, despite this break below this support confluence, price held on above the 58 level which represents an old high from March 2 and was also around where price hit lows on March 20. This gives traders a specific area to watch, as old resistance areas can often come back into focus as new support.

Momentum also took a hit, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling out of the overbought area and giving a bearish signal in tandem with this indicator breaking below its own upward trendline. Traders should be on the lookout for the RSI to climb back into overbought territory – the threshold of 70 – for another bullish signal.

The options market for the XLE also reveals some interesting tidbits. The Apr. 17 monthly expiration shows a potential expected move of about 5.3%, which closely aligns with the previous all-time highs and suggests market participants are not banking on a breakout into new highs of 63.46. Going forward, the May 15 monthly expiration shows a range of about +/- 8.4%, which could take price above the 65 level.

Graham: Brace for 'V-Shape' Market Bottom, Likes COHR, LITE & ANET in AI Recovery

The Watch List

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Electric vehicle sales for 1Q and March are in for several companies, including Chinese carmakers Nio (NIO) and XPeng (XPEV).

However, the current energy crisis around the world as gas prices spike due to the Iran war underscores the usefulness of vehicles that can run on electricity. Used EV sales have reportedly spiked in the EU since the conflict began, perhaps preluding a greater shift in buying habits. Investors should watch the next few quarters to see if there’s any spikes in sales and where they’re coming from.

Nio delivered 35,486 vehicles in March, a +136% year-over-year jump. In the first quarter, it delivered 83,465, +98.3%.

On the other hand, XPeng delivered 27,415 vehicles in March (-17%) – marking the third straight month of year-over-year declines — and 62,682 for 1Q (-33%). It also officially entered the Mexican market in March as part of a three-year strategy to sell in Latin America.

Reuters believes Tesla’s (TSLA) 1Q deliveries will be lower year-over-year due to competition and uneven demand as EVs have struggled in the U.S. It is estimated to report between 365,000-366,000 vehicles tomorrow, putting it roughly level with Nio’s production.

Still, Reuters reports that new registrations of Tesla’s tripled in March in France, and there are other signs of life in the European market. Notably, this is a bounce back from 2025, where it lost about half of its market share in Europe – often to Chinese alternatives.

Global adoption of electric vehicles is happening in stages, driven both by costs and by politics. The removal of the EV tax credit in the U.S. caused a dip in new sales, but markets abroad may have more interest. Also note that many of these EV companies are also working on self-driving and other robotic initiatives, much like Tesla.

The U.S. may simply be falling behind on the electrification race. China is the largest market for EVs, making up around 60% of the total market and close to reaching an EV share of 50% on its roads. A group of European countries, including Norway and Finland, are the next-fastest adopters. Meanwhile, legacy American carmakers have pulled back on their EV programs, often after significant investments, because of the lack of consumer adoption.

What does this mean overall? Despite pessimism in U.S. markets, the EV trade is alive and well, and looking to take the next steps. The more vehicles on the road, the more data these carmakers will have, and the better they’ll be able to develop more complex products like automated driving. Tesla will find itself with some tough competition over the next few years; we’ll see where the arms race goes next.

'Bull is Sleeping, Not Dead’: Economic 'Coiled Spring' to Relaunch Bull Run | Schwab Network

Trading 360

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

Nike (NKE) reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the closing bell tonight, with shares trading at nearly 9-year lows following a 20% decline this year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is pegged at $11.2 billion, suggesting a 0.3% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings is pegged at 31 cents per share, indicating a decline of 42.6% from the year-ago reported number. That compares with last quarter, when Nike delivered $12.43 billion in revenue and $0.53 in EPS, beating expectations but still showing material pressure beneath the surface—particularly in China and margins. Nike heads into earnings with expectations reset lower and that may be the most important setup for the stock.

CEO Elliott Hill has been in the midst of a turnaround for Nike with mixed results. The quarter is expected to reflect continued transition dynamics as the company executes its turnaround initiatives under the “Win Now” strategy while navigating regional demand disparities and cost pressures. Management has emphasized that progress will likely remain uneven across geographies, with strength in select markets partly offset by persistent challenges in others. A critical "swing factor," with analysts bracing for another double-digit contraction in Greater China sales—marking seven consecutive quarters of decline, including a 17% year-over-year drop last quarter. Investors will gauge if management still views China as a multi‑quarter drag rather than a near‑term recovery story.

Nike’s strategic pivot back toward wholesale has helped stabilize revenue, but it comes at a cost. In recent quarters: Wholesale revenue rose 7%, driven by restocking at key partners while Nike Direct fell 4%, with digital sales down even more sharply. Investors will be watching whether wholesale momentum continues with damaging margins and if Direct-to-Consumer sales are bottoming. The market wants clarity on whether Nike can balance growth and profitability, not just shifting volume around.

Margins are still the biggest fundamental concern as gross margin fell more than 300 basis points year‑over‑year in recent quarters. Heavier discounting, an unfavorable channel mix and higher tariffs have all contributed to the decline in margins. Nike has warned that turnaround efforts and tariff exposure continue to weigh on profitability. Any indication that margin pressure is peaking, rather than ongoing, would likely be taken positively by investors.

Inventory levels have improved modestly, a key positive after several quarters of markdown risk. Analysts note that inventory declined even as revenue stabilized, easing near‑term balance‑sheet stress. Traders will watch for inventory growth versus sales growth and management commentary on promotional intensity heading into the back half of the fiscal year.

Performance in the running category is a bright spot, with 20% growth last reported, and new 2026 World Cup products are expected to boost future revenue. Competition has caused some headwinds with names like On Holdings (ONON), Adidas (ADDYY) and Lululemon (LULU) taking market share across Nike’s product lineup.

The Option market is pricing in a +/- 7.5% one-day move in the stock ($3.80). On a technical basis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the 26 level, which is oversold territory. Anything below the 30 level is considered oversold on the technicals but does not mean the stock can’t go lower. The stock is far below it’s 50-Day Simple Moving average near $60 as the stock is off 17% this month alone.

The bar is extremely low for NKE into its earnings after the close but its been that way for the past few quarters. This earnings report may be less about a headline beat and more about evidence that the worst is over. Despite the share price slump to nine-year lows in the low $50s, the stock maintains a relatively high forward P/E ratio, suggesting a high-stakes moment for the "Win Now" strategy. The Nike Brand is still one of the most highly recognized worldwide but the stock is most likely a ‘Show-Me’ story at this point.

Roblox (RBLX) CFO on Video Gaming Future, AI Disruption & Safety | Schwab Network

Market Overtime

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.

The big question: where is the next level of support for the market?

With the Iran escalation impacting global energy and shipping markets, private credit concerns still playing out in the background, and semiconductors potentially beginning to show signs of fracturing, it is worth taking a closer look at market structure to gain insight into where we are in the current cycle and the key items to watch in the coming week.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 is nearing correction territory, as the index has pulled back more than 9%. The SPX is now trading below its 200-day simple moving average, and over the next week we may also see a bearish cross, with the 20-day SMA moving below the 200-day SMA.

That said, the weekly chart provides a better perspective on the key levels of focus over the coming weeks.

After losing the 50-week SMA, the S&P 500 could consolidate and retest that moving average throughout the week. Historically, the 50-week moving average is not always the strongest support level for the index, but it often serves as a consolidation zone in the event this cycle still has more room to the downside.

The 100-week SMA is the next major area of support, and it is where buyers could potentially step in for several reasons. First, this moving average is near the 6,000 level (approximately 6,079.93 this morning). Second, the 6,000 zone acted as a major area of resistance from late 2024 into early 2025, before the tariff-driven selloff. A previous area of resistance may now flip into a meaningful area of support. Third, options positioning throughout the latter half of 2024 and early 2025 heavily centered around the 6,000 strike, which may also help explain some of the index resistance seen in early 2025.

The market still appears to be firmly in risk-off mode, and even if this week results in a positive bounce, it is important to remember that the 50-week SMA traditionally acts as a consolidation zone that could precede a potential further flush lower.

The next question is: what could drive the market lower even after the geopolitical risk events and idiosyncratic private credit concerns.

At the moment, the only other industry that carries significant weight in the broader market and is flashing signals of a meaningful pullback on the horizon is the semiconductor space.

Nvidia at a Critical Inflection Point

Nvidia (NVDA) is now at a critical make-or-break technical level after breaking below the $170 level last week and closing near the lows. The stock has been consolidating between $170 and $200 since July of last year.

Some may argue that this is simply a consolidation in time before moving higher, and that may still prove to be the case. However, there is no denying that key technical indicators are currently reflecting more of a rollover pattern.

The stock closed below the 50-week SMA, while the RSI continues to make lower highs and lower lows, signaling that price momentum is changing direction.

In addition, the weekly MACD is now approaching the zero line, after the 12-week EMA firmly crossed below the 26-week EMA. The next critical area of support for NVDA is around the $145 level.

This target is derived by taking the average width of the consolidation range—approximately $25 to $28—and subtracting that from the $170 support floor, which brings the stock to roughly $145. Importantly, this also roughly aligns with the 100-week moving average, which acted as a key pivot point back in April of last year.

Semiconductor Breadth Also Weakening

The weekly chart of the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) also reflects this broader weakness within the industry. The primary bullish channel officially broke last week.

The index also closed below the 20-week SMA, while the MACD generated an initial bearish crossover, with the 12-week average crossing below the 26-week average.

At the same time, the RSI continues to make lower highs and is developing a bearish divergence, which may begin to fully materialize over the coming weeks.

Overall, the technicals still lean more bearish than bullish at the moment. Liquidity remains anemic, which contributes to elevated volatility levels, while multiple market factors are working themselves out simultaneously. In the short term, the market still looks weak, but several key sectors are now approaching oversold conditions, both technically and from a valuation standpoint. Stay nimble.

Katz: Markets Historically Bounce Back from Conflict, Time to Buy Dips

The Watch List

Tune in live from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, or anytime, anywhere, on‑demand.

Or stream it via thinkorswim® and thinkorswim Mobile, available through our broker-dealer affiliate, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc

Please do not reply to this email. Replies are not delivered to Schwab Network. For inquiries or comments, please email support@schwabnetwork.com.

See how your information is protected with our privacy statement.  

This material is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered a personalized recommendation or investment advice. Investors should review investment strategies for their own particular situations before making any decisions.

Schwab Network is brought to you by Charles Schwab Media Productions Company (“CSMPC”). CSMPC is a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is not a financial advisor, registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant.

Charles Schwab Media Productions Company and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated, and are not responsible for one another's policies, services or opinions.

Data contained herein is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. All events and times listed are subject to change without notice.