GM Anon!

BTC spent the week doing what it has done for most of this month: chopping sideways inside the same $65K to $70K band, closing this week near $68K. Institutional flow has swung back toward meaningful outflows, liquidity remains thin, and broader risk appetite is tilting defensive as growth signals soften and yields stay restrictive.

This is not a market in freefall. Leverage is still compressed, open interest is subdued, and funding is only modestly positive, which reduces the odds of a reflexive liquidation unwind. But that also leaves price more exposed to spot driven pressure. With positioning light, the marginal flow matters more, and this week that marginal flow leaned toward distribution through ETFs and elevated large holder exchange activity, especially as rallies approached the top of the range.

Today’s issue focuses on what that actually means. First, we’ll map the current range structure and the flow picture across ETFs and derivatives. Then we’ll dig into the on chain split between whale linked sell side capacity and steady accumulation building in the mid $60Ks. Finally, we’ll frame the setup through macro and liquidity, and lay out what needs to change for $70K to soften or for the range to persist. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• BTC stayed range bound between roughly $65K to $70K, ending the week near $68K.

• The range looks orderly, but underlying demand is weak and liquidity still feels thin.

• Spot ETF flows leaned negative overall, signaling institutional distribution despite a late week stabilization bid.

• Leverage remains compressed with open interest subdued, reducing the risk of a liquidation cascade.

• Funding is only modestly positive, pointing to cautious dip buying rather than crowded longs.

• With positioning light, spot flows are driving price, making moves feel sharper and more reactive.

• On chain signals are mixed: whale exchange inflows remain elevated, implying higher sell side capacity into strength.

• At the same time, accumulation is building in the mid $60Ks, with long term holders shifting back toward net buying and smaller wallets continuing to add.

• Unrealized losses remain meaningful, keeping holders sensitive and encouraging supply on rallies, especially near $70K.

• Macro remains a headwind: growth looks fragile and yields around 4%+ keep financial conditions tight, so a breakout likely needs clear, sustained spot demand

Current State Of The Market

The structure is simple and persistent. The $65K area continues to act as the lower boundary, where downside probes have attracted buyers and price has stabilized. The $70K area remains the cap, where rebounds run into overhead supply and momentum fades quickly. The February leg down broke the prior structure and forced a reset, but what followed was not trend continuation. It was a tight consolidation, with price repeatedly reverting back toward the middle of the band.

That matters because it frames how to interpret every signal this week. In a range market, you should expect mean reversion and disappointment on break attempts unless a new source of demand appears. You also tend to see the same behavior repeat: sellers show up as price approaches the top of the band, and buyers show up as price approaches the bottom, without either side gaining enough traction to sustain a move.

Flows and Positioning

ETF Flows

This week’s ETF tape was defined by distribution with a late-week stabilization bid. BTC spot ETFs finished the week net negative at roughly $165.8M of outflows, despite a meaningful rebound in the final session. ETH products also ended the week weaker, with roughly $130.1M of outflows, which reinforces that the risk reduction was not isolated to BTC.

The midweek stretch did most of the damage. Flows were consistently negative across several sessions, with the largest pressure concentrated into the middle of the week, keeping the tone defensive and making it difficult for price to build momentum inside the $65K to $70K range.

Friday was the first real counter-signal. The day recorded about $88.1M of BTC inflows, while ETH was essentially flat to slightly negative at roughly $0.7M out, and SOL was modestly positive around $3.7M. That read is best described as selective stabilization rather than a full reversal. It shows buyers are willing to step in at these levels, but the broader weekly profile still says institutional demand is not consistently supportive yet.

Derivatives & Leverage

Derivatives remain restrained, which is both stabilizing and limiting. Aggregated open interest is holding around $20.7B, near the lows that followed the prior deleveraging.

Funding is modestly positive, around +0.0039, with predicted funding around +0.0029, pointing to a mild long bias that looks more like tactical dip buying than confident trend positioning.

That mix implies the market is not crowded. It lowers the probability of a forced liquidation cascade, but it also reduces the chance that positioning itself drives a breakout. With leverage light, price is more likely to follow spot flows. When ETF flows are negative and liquidity is thin, that tends to keep the range intact and makes moves feel sharper, because there is less derivative positioning to buffer them.

On Chain and Holder Behavior

On-chain conditions point to a market that is still working through supply, even as accumulation builds in pockets.

Start with the sell-side signals. The Exchange Whale Ratio is cited around ~0.64, described as a decade-plus extreme. That suggests large holders dominate exchange inflows, which is typically associated with elevated sell capacity.

It does not mean whales are selling constantly, but it does mean the market has to be prepared for supply to appear quickly into strength, especially near obvious levels like $70K where profit-taking is already active.

Furthermore, realized profit data suggests persistent selling pressure on moves toward $70K, where relatively modest profit-taking is still enough to trigger rejection. That is a classic late correction dynamic.

At the same time, there are credible accumulation signals that help explain why the lower end of the range continues to hold. Long-term holders have shifted from six months of distribution to net accumulation after price traded into the mid $60Ks, implying improved conviction at lower levels.

Smaller wallets, particularly the 0.1 to 1 BTC cohort, have reached a 15-month high in holdings, consistent with steady dip accumulation. This matches the broader point you included about a declining network distribution factor, where supply concentration among larger holders falls as coins redistribute to smaller participants.

The stress backdrop remains meaningful. Relative unrealized losses are cited around ~19% of market cap, which implies broad holder pain and a low threshold for selling on rallies. This matters for market structure because it creates a tight loop: upside attempts trigger supply, supply reinforces the range, and the range keeps sentiment cautious.

Institutional positioning has also left a visible imprint on ownership and liquidity. Spot ETF balances are experiencing their largest drawdown of the cycle, around ~100K BTC since the October peak, reinforcing how directly ETF behavior can affect marginal demand. At the same time, cumulative inflows are still cited as historically large, still above $50B, which is an important nuance. The longer-term institutional presence remains meaningful, but the near-term flow is acting as a headwind.

Finally, the network and mining backdrop is strong but not automatically bullish for price in the short term. Network difficulty is cited up about ~15%, and hashrate up more than ~25% from recent lows. That reinforces long-term network security, but it can also raise the cost base for miners, which becomes relevant if price fails to recover and miners need to fund operations into a thin liquidity environment.

Pulling it together, on-chain is best read as a two-way process. Large-holder related flow looks heavy, losses remain widespread, and overhead supply is still active, but accumulation is building in the mid $60Ks and ownership is gradually broadening. That is consistent with a slow reset, not a clean trend.

Macro and Liquidity Context

The macro framing this week is disinflation in parts of the world, but not enough policy flexibility to create easy liquidity, paired with clearer signs of growth pressure and more defensive positioning.

Disinflation is visible such as Japan CPI falling to around ~1.5% YoY, below expectations. In the U.S., inflation is described as sticky enough to keep the Fed constrained, with Core PCE near ~3%, which is still above target. That combination tends to keep policy cautious, even as growth momentum softens.

Growth pressure is more explicit, U.S. GDP is cited around ~1.4% versus expectations near 3%, signaling a meaningful slowdown.

At the same time, U.S. 10-year yields moving toward ~4%+ tightens financial conditions and raises the hurdle rate for risk-taking. This is the environment where markets become more sensitive to negative surprises, because there is less confidence that policy will quickly step in to cushion volatility.

Positioning signals point the same way. The equity put/call ratio is around ~1.28, which reflects a shift toward protection and a more defensive posture from equity traders.

Market internals also look unstable, with an unusual divergence where roughly ~54% of S&P 500 stocks are described as overbought while ~27% are simultaneously oversold. That kind of dispersion often shows up when leadership is narrow and participation is fragile.

Housing adds to the growth pressure. Pending home sales falling to a new all-time low reinforces how rate-sensitive demand remains and how higher yields transmit into the real economy. Household cost pressures are also highlighted in the data, with housing-related costs outpacing wage growth since 2020, which can weigh on consumption and sentiment over time.

Cross-asset allocation signals are consistent with a more cautious global posture. Rotation away from the U.S. has pushed the U.S. share of flows to the lowest level since 2020.

A sharp internal equity divergence is also visible, with the S&P software sector trading below its 200-day average while semiconductors remain near cycle highs, described as a record spread. That supports the idea that risk appetite is selective, not broad.

Finally, fiscal and liquidity uncertainty matters at the margin. The data highlights large potential Treasury refund obligations, which can shape expectations around financing needs and liquidity management. For BTC, the practical implication is straightforward: when financial conditions are tight and risk positioning is defensive, a real demand impulse is usually required to break a range. Otherwise, markets tend to trade in bands and react sharply to flows.

What Matters Now & Looking Ahead

The market is still stuck between structural repair and ongoing distribution, and the range is expressing that balance.

First, watch whether ETF outflows remain persistent. A single inflow day would not change the picture, but a reduction in the consistency of outflow days would. If flows stay negative, rallies into the upper end of the range are more likely to fade than to develop into continuation.

Second, watch behavior near $70K. The flow and realized profit profile suggests profit-taking is still sufficient to trigger rejection there. For the ceiling to soften, either realized profit intensity needs to keep declining, or a stronger bid needs to appear through spot flows.

Third, the on-chain split matters. If whale-related exchange activity stays elevated while long-term holders and smaller wallets continue to accumulate, the most likely outcome is continued sideways trade with sharp, short-lived dislocations. That is what redistribution looks like when liquidity is thin.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

Macro tightened its grip again this week, with risk assets reversing sharply as equities and commodities sold off together and positioning shifted toward defense. The backdrop remains fragile despite strong U.S. jobs data, with rising consumer delinquencies, earnings yields near historic lows, and global uncertainty at record levels. At the same time, nearly $10T of U.S. debt set to mature over the next year is reinforcing concerns that heavy Treasury supply could keep liquidity tight.

Crypto struggled to absorb the shift. Prices moved lower and ranged alongside the broader risk-off move, sentiment fell to extreme fear, and new investor flows turned negative. With BTC trading well below short-term holder cost basis and recent buyers sitting on large unrealized losses, supply pressure remains elevated. For now, markets are trading defense first, with risk appetite thin and stabilization still unproven.

TLDR

• Broad risk-off move as stocks and commodities reversed lower; gold fell below $5K and silver below $80.

• Macro backdrop fragile despite strong jobs data, with delinquencies rising, earnings yields near 100-year lows, and a potential U.S. shutdown.

• Hedge funds added record equity shorts as positioning shifted decisively toward defense.

• Crypto sold off with risk assets; BTC and ETH remain highly macro-driven as Fear & Greed hit a record low of 5.

• BTC is trading near $68K, ~28% below the $94.2K short-term holder cost basis, increasing capitulation risk and overhead supply.

• New investor demand has turned negative, with ~$2.6B in outflows, signaling weakening momentum and distribution.

• Institutional flows are mixed: Goldman cut BTC ETF exposure, but Binance (~$300M BTC) and Strategy ($90M BTC) continue selective accumulation.

• The World Uncertainty Index hit an all-time high, pointing to tighter financial conditions, higher volatility, and reduced risk appetite.

• Structural adoption continues beneath the surface, with tokenization growth ($6B tokenized gold), DeFi–TradFi integration, and new infrastructure launches.

• Rising refinancing risk (~$10T U.S. debt maturing) threatens to absorb liquidity, reinforcing a macro environment of tight conditions and pressure on risk assets.

Market Update

A sharp reversal across risk assets set the tone for the week, with equities and commodities selling off together as sentiment deteriorated. Silver broke below $80 and gold fell under $5K, signaling broad liquidation rather than rotation into defensives. AI disruption fears weighed heavily on real estate, freight, and wealth manager stocks, while Alphabet’s plan to raise $32B in debt to fund AI capex reinforced concerns about rising cost burdens across the sector.

Despite much stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, the macro backdrop remains fragile: consumer delinquencies have reached a decade high, the S&P 500 earnings yield sits near 100-year lows, and markets are facing the risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown. Hedge funds have added record shorts during the equity rout, and although a potential Trump–Xi trade truce offered some stability at the margin, overall positioning has shifted toward defense.

Crypto traded lower alongside the macro move, with BTC and ETH remaining tightly linked to broader risk sentiment. Fear & Greed fell to 5, the lowest level on record, reflecting extreme caution among participants. The market narrative remains conflicted: JP Morgan highlighted BTC support near its $77K production cost, while Standard Chartered warned that further downside pressure is likely.

Longer-term structural themes remain intact, including ETH’s shift toward verifying ZK proofs and ongoing efforts to position the network at the center of AI infrastructure, but in the near term price action continues to be driven by liquidity and macro risk rather than crypto-specific catalysts. Activity within higher-beta segments has been selective, with isolated rebounds failing to shift overall market tone.

Institutional signals were mixed and leaned cautious. Goldman Sachs reduced its BTC ETF holdings by 40% in Q4, while digital asset investment products recorded $187M in weekly outflows, though the pace of redemptions has slowed. At the same time, strategic accumulation continued beneath the surface: Binance has purchased roughly $300M in BTC toward a $1B target, Strategy added $90M of BTC, and corporate treasury activity included $84M of ETH purchases by BMNR. Bhutan sold $6.7M of BTC, reinforcing how marginal sovereign and institutional flows are influencing short-term supply dynamics. The overall picture is one of selective accumulation by committed holders rather than broad-based institutional demand.

Under the surface, infrastructure, tokenization, and onchain financial rails remain areas of continued development despite weak price action. LayerZero introduced the Zero blockchain, Robinhood launched a blockchain testnet, and Coinbase rolled out Agentic Wallets as the industry pushes deeper into automation and AI-linked use cases.

In DeFi, Aave plans to direct 100% of protocol revenue to its DAO, while reports that BlackRock may offer DeFi trading via Uniswap highlight the continued convergence between traditional finance and onchain liquidity. Tokenized funds being enabled as collateral through a Financial Times–Binance initiative, the UK selecting HSBC for a tokenized bond, and tokenized gold reaching a $6B market cap all point to steady institutional adoption of real-world asset infrastructure even as market conditions remain risk-off.

Regulatory and corporate developments added to the cautious backdrop. A White House session on a crypto bill ended without progress, while U.S. banking access remains contested amid calls to delay OCC charters for crypto firms. Internationally, the policy environment remains mixed: the EU is seeking to ban Russian crypto transactions and China is moving to prohibit RWA tokenization, while Hong Kong plans to allow crypto margin financing and perpetual contracts and Denmark’s Danske Bank has lifted its eight-year crypto ban.

Corporate headlines reinforced the industry’s transitional phase, with Coinbase reporting a $664M Q4 loss, Kraken removing its CFO ahead of a planned IPO, Blockchain.com securing UK FCA registration, and several major fraud cases resulting in prison sentences. Together, the week’s developments reflect a market still dominated by macro risk and policy uncertainty, with positioning defensive and conviction dependent on a clear improvement in liquidity conditions.

Market Data Points

Short-term holders are deep underwater, with BTC trading near $68K against an estimated STH cost basis of ~$94.2K. This places recent buyers at roughly 28% unrealized losses, a level that historically increases the probability of capitulation-driven selling.

The extended period of price below the STH cost basis reflects ongoing distribution and weak conviction among newer market participants. Until price reclaims this level, short-term holder supply is likely to remain a source of overhead pressure, with any rallies facing increased sell-side liquidity from holders looking to exit at breakeven.

The World Uncertainty Index has surged to a record high, signaling a sharp deterioration in the global macro backdrop as policy risk, geopolitical tension, and economic instability converge.

Historically, spikes of this magnitude coincide with tightening financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, and elevated market volatility as investors shift toward capital preservation. In this environment, liquidity becomes more selective, cross-asset correlations rise, and risk assets face persistent pressure until uncertainty begins to ease and macro visibility improves.

New investor flows have turned negative, with roughly $2.6B in net outflows, signaling that fresh capital is no longer supporting current price levels. Historically, strong bull phases are sustained by persistent new money entering the market, while periods of declining or negative inflows reflect weakening demand and a shift toward distribution.

The recent contraction suggests momentum is fading, leaving price increasingly dependent on existing holders rather than new buyers. Until new capital returns, the market is likely to remain fragile, with reduced upside strength and a higher sensitivity to selling pressure.

Refinancing risk is rising sharply, with nearly $10T of U.S. government debt—about one-third of total outstanding—set to mature within the next year. This creates a significant funding challenge that increases the market’s reliance on strong Treasury demand and stable interest rates. If yields remain elevated or demand weakens, the government will be forced to refinance at higher costs, tightening financial conditions across the economy.

Coin Moves

Large caps traded with a defensive tone over the past week, as capital remained concentrated in the highest-liquidity assets while the broader market retraced. BTC declined modestly and held in the high-$60K range, continuing to act as the market’s primary stability anchor despite failing to regain upward momentum. ETH showed relative resilience with only a shallow pullback, reinforcing the pattern of institutional and core flow staying concentrated in the two dominant assets. Beyond the top tier, the large-cap complex broadly moved lower, with most majors declining in the mid-single-digit range. The notable exception was TRX, which posted a modest weekly gain, pointing to selective rotation into more defensive large-cap exposure rather than a broad risk-on shift.

Below the majors, performance was highly fragmented. Several established mid-cap names delivered high single-digit to low double-digit gains, including HBAR, NEXO, ZEC, and XMR, while others such as QNT, BCH, and ATOM advanced more modestly. The absence of leadership from any single sector suggests opportunistic positioning rather than a coordinated rotation into altcoins. Further down the market cap curve, dispersion widened significantly, with multiple smaller-cap tokens posting outsized moves ranging from 20% to well over 100%.

Overall, market structure remains defensive. Capital continues to favor BTC and ETH, breadth is narrow, and performance dispersion remains elevated. Upside participation is selective and momentum-driven, while downside pressure is broader across risk-sensitive areas. The current distribution of returns reflects a market prioritizing liquidity and capital preservation, with conviction insufficient to support any type of sustained recovery.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

It’s been a heavy period for crypto. Nearly every meaningful metric has turned deeply negative, shaking trader confidence and leaving many in the market disillusioned. Historically, however, this type of environment has created some of the best opportunities for long term buyers.

Today’s issue is a little different. First, we’ll take a deep look at the current state of the market across key metrics. Then we’ll break down what risks current conditions may pose to corporate treasuries. Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• BTC is stabilizing near $69K after a leverage driven selloff, with the bounce reflecting seller exhaustion rather than renewed demand

• The market has shifted from liquidation to stabilization, but overall confidence and conviction remain low

• BTC spot ETFs recorded a recent $545M single day outflow, with flows inconsistent and still leaning toward distribution

• ETH ETFs saw roughly $79M in net outflows, reinforcing cautious institutional positioning across core assets

• Open interest has declined to around $21.6B, confirming ongoing deleveraging rather than new risk being added

• Funding has turned negative after repeated long squeezes, reducing long side fragility but creating early short crowding conditions

• Supply in profit has fallen sharply, leaving a large portion of circulating BTC underwater and reflecting broad valuation compression

• Holder behavior shows redistribution, with mid sized holders selling into weakness while 1,000+ BTC addresses continue to accumulate

• Retail participation has increased on dips, a pattern that typically aligns with extended consolidation rather than immediate recovery

• Macro conditions remain the primary constraint, with tighter financial conditions and no policy easing keeping rallies tactical rather than structural

State Of The Market

BTC ends the week near $68K after a sharp liquidation driven decline that forced leverage out of the system and pushed the market into a high stress adjustment phase. Since then, price is attempting to stabilize, but the recovery reflects exhaustion of sellers more than the return of meaningful demand.

Across spot, derivatives, and on chain activity, the same theme is emerging. Risk has been reduced, but confidence has not yet returned. Institutional flows remain inconsistent, liquidity conditions are tightening, and positioning continues to adjust unevenly.

At the same time, valuation has compressed significantly and ownership is gradually shifting toward stronger hands. The market is no longer in a cascade, but it is operating without a clear source of sustained buying. For now, the environment is best understood as stabilization under liquidity pressure rather than the start of a new trend.

ETF Flows

Institutional behavior through ETF flows continues to reflect caution rather than accumulation.

During the week, BTC spot ETFs recorded a large single day outflow of approximately $545M, one of the largest redemptions seen during the current drawdown. While there were isolated inflow sessions, they lacked follow through and were quickly reversed. This pattern suggests tactical dip buying rather than a shift in institutional risk appetite.

The broader message from flows is consistent. Larger allocators are still reducing exposure into strength rather than defending price at lower levels. Historically, durable market lows have coincided with sustained inflows over multiple sessions. That type of demand has not yet appeared.

ETH ETFs also faced net outflows of roughly $79M, reinforcing the cautious stance across core crypto exposure. There is little evidence of rotation within the asset class, and higher beta assets continue to see limited institutional interest.

Until ETF flows stabilize and turn consistently positive, spot demand is unlikely to provide a durable foundation for price.

Derivatives and Positioning

The recent move lower was primarily a leverage event, and derivatives data shows the market is still working through its aftermath.

Open interest has declined steadily, falling toward roughly $21.6B. This confirms that risk is being removed rather than rebuilt. The pace of the decline has slowed, suggesting the most aggressive forced liquidations have passed, but positioning has not yet transitioned into a clear re-accumulation phase.

Funding behavior highlights the uneven adjustment. During much of the decline, funding repeatedly moved back into positive territory even as price fell. This indicates that traders continued to attempt early longs, creating a persistent imbalance that kept downside pressure active as those positions were forced out.

More recently, funding has shifted negative across several venues, suggesting the crowded long positioning has finally been flushed. This reduces immediate downside fragility but introduces early short crowding conditions. In this environment, upside moves are more likely to come from short covering than from new risk taking.

Liquidation dynamics reinforce the fragile structure. Price continues to move toward visible liquidity, and with liquidation levels still appearing below spot, the path of least resistance remains sensitive to further downside extensions if demand does not improve.

Overall, derivatives positioning has moved from crowded long stress toward early reset, but balance and conviction have not yet returned.

On Chain and Holder Behavior

On chain activity reflects a market in transition, where long term structure is improving but near term behavior remains fragile.

Supply in profit has fallen sharply, leaving a large portion of circulating BTC underwater. This type of profit compression is typical of late stage stress and valuation reset rather than immediate turning points.

Holder behavior suggests redistribution rather than broad capitulation. Mid sized holders have been net sellers into weakness, while addresses holding 1,000+ BTC continue to accumulate quietly. At the same time, retail participation has increased on dips, a pattern that historically aligns with extended basing rather than rapid recovery.

Institutional behavior has also leaned defensive. The Coinbase Premium has remained deeply negative at times, indicating that selling pressure has been led by U.S. based investors rather than retail.

Network fundamentals reinforce the softer demand backdrop. Network growth has fallen to multi year lows, and recent spikes in activity appear to be driven by selling rather than new adoption.

Liquidity conditions on chain are also tightening. Stablecoin supply growth has stalled and begun to contract, removing an important source of marginal buying power that supported previous advances.

Despite the weak near term picture, valuation metrics such as MVRV and the Bitcoin Yardstick now sit in historically compressed ranges. These conditions have historically aligned with late cycle stress and improving long term opportunity, even though they do not signal immediate recovery.

Macro and Liquidity Context

The broader macro environment continues to act as the primary constraint on risk assets.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing surprised sharply to the upside at 52.6, a 40 month high and the first expansionary reading in a year. Under normal conditions, stronger growth would support risk assets. In the current cycle, where liquidity expectations dominate, the effect is the opposite. Stronger growth reduces the likelihood of near term rate cuts, tightening financial conditions at a time when markets are already sensitive to liquidity.

At the same time, underlying economic data is weakening beneath the surface. January job cuts rose to 108K, the highest level for a January since the Global Financial Crisis. Hiring plans collapsed to the lowest level on record, and job openings have fallen to their lowest level since 2020. Part time employment for economic reasons has moved toward recessionary levels, indicating growing labor market stress.

Risk assets are already reflecting late cycle conditions. U.S. software equities have fallen close to 30% in a matter of weeks, and institutional investors have been aggressively reducing exposure across sectors. Housing data shows demand exhaustion, while the yield curve has steepened as growth concerns increase.

Globally, sovereign bond markets are also showing signs of strain, adding to broader financial instability.

The macro regime is increasingly defined by slowing growth, fading inflation, tightening financial conditions, and narrowing policy flexibility. In this environment, liquidity rather than growth is the dominant driver, and the absence of easing continues to limit sustained risk appetite.

Net Result

The market has transitioned from liquidation toward stabilization, but the recovery remains fragile.

Leverage has been reduced and valuation has compressed into historically attractive territory, yet the key drivers of a durable turn are still missing. ETF flows remain inconsistent, stablecoin liquidity is no longer expanding, and institutional behavior continues to lean defensive.

Ownership is gradually shifting from weaker hands to stronger balance sheets, but the redistribution process is not complete. Retail participation remains early, while larger allocators have not yet returned with sustained demand.

Macro conditions remain the central variable. Stronger growth without policy easing is tightening financial conditions rather than supporting risk assets. Until liquidity expectations improve, rallies are likely to be tactical and positioning driven rather than structural.

This is not a structural breakdown for BTC. It is a transition phase marked by compressed valuations, reduced leverage, and low conviction. The market is stabilizing, but a durable trend higher will require consistent institutional inflows and a clear improvement in the broader liquidity environment.

Corporate Treasury Stress: Strategy and Bitmine

The recent drawdown has brought increased attention to corporate balance sheets with concentrated crypto exposure. The key risk for these firms is often framed around liquidation, but the more relevant pressure is strategic. Price declines alone do not force selling. The real constraint emerges over time as weaker markets reduce flexibility, capital access, and investor tolerance.

Strategy

Strategy holds 713,502 BTC acquired at a total cost of $54.3B, or approximately $76K per BTC. With BTC trading meaningfully below that level, the company reported a quarterly loss of $12.4B tied to the mark to market decline in its holdings.

Despite the size of the loss, the balance sheet structure limits near term financial risk. The BTC is unencumbered and not pledged as collateral, and the company’s convertible debt is long dated with no immediate maturity pressure. There are no price triggered mechanisms that would force asset sales.

The constraint is therefore strategic rather than structural. As Strategy’s equity trades closer to the value of its underlying BTC, issuing new shares to fund additional purchases becomes more dilutive and less attractive. This slows the pace of accumulation and reduces the company’s ability to expand its position during periods of weakness.

If BTC remains below the firm’s cost basis for an extended period, the primary risk shifts toward increased shareholder scrutiny and tighter capital conditions. The strategy itself remains intact, but its growth engine becomes less efficient.

Bitmine

Bitmine represents a more sensitive exposure profile due to the scale and timing of its ETH accumulation.

The company holds approximately 4.29M ETH acquired at an estimated cost of $16.4B. At current prices near $2K to $2.3K, the position is valued around $8.4B, leaving roughly $8B in unrealized losses.

Much of the position was accumulated at an average price between $3.8K and $3.9K, meaning the firm is deeply underwater following ETH’s roughly 53% decline from its cycle high.

Importantly, Bitmine also faces no immediate forced selling risk. The ETH purchases were funded primarily through equity rather than debt, there are no restrictive covenants, and the company holds roughly $538M in cash. In addition, more than 2.9M ETH is staked, generating recurring income that partially offsets operating pressure.

However, the economic exposure is highly sensitive to price and sentiment. The scale of the unrealized loss increases equity volatility and raises the importance of market confidence, particularly given the firm’s stated objective of accumulating a significant share of total ETH supply.

What Matters

The common factor across both firms is timing rather than leverage.

The recent decline was driven by a rapid, liquidity driven repricing that compressed asset values faster than corporate balance sheets could adjust. Neither Strategy nor Bitmine faces forced liquidation based on price alone.

The risk emerges if weak market conditions persist.

Prolonged trading below cost levels would gradually increase pressure from shareholders, reduce capital raising flexibility, and narrow strategic options. For Strategy, this would likely further limit its ability to fund new BTC purchases efficiently. For Bitmine, extended weakness in ETH would amplify equity volatility and intensify questions around capital allocation, especially if staking income remains insufficient relative to mark to market losses.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

Macro has been in control for some time, and this week pushed that reality to the forefront. Commodities surged to extremes before snapping back sharply, while policy uncertainty intensified following Trump’s decision to appoint Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a move the market views as more restrictive.

Crypto absorbed the shock poorly. Prices sold off decisively, sentiment turned deeply bearish, and concern shifted toward whether the move marks further downside rather than simple consolidation. The pressure looks macro-driven rather than idiosyncratic, but the damage has been real, and risk appetite remains thin. For now, markets are trading defense first, with stabilization still unproven. Let’s dig in.

TLDR

• Macro was volatile, with shutdown risk and a rate hold clashing with the S&P 500 hitting 7,000.

• Commodities led risk appetite as gold hit $5.5K and silver $120 before sharp reversals.

• Crypto traded as a funding source, selling off around the Fed and staying mixed as metals dominated.

• BTC sentiment deteriorated sharply, pointing to late-stage correction dynamics and choppy price action.

• Structural macro stress persists, with weaker US consumer savings and pressure on bank balance sheets.

• Crypto majors had a weak week, led lower by ETH and SOL, with no broad inflow signal.

• Altcoin performance was narrow, with HYPE leading gains while most names continued to unwind.

• Institutional activity focused on long-term positioning rather than risk expansion.

• Regulation and market structure advanced in prediction markets, tokenization, and stablecoins.

Market Update

Macro conditions were volatile and contradictory. US equity futures slipped after a vote to avoid a government shutdown failed, yet the S&P 500 pushed to 7,000 for the first time, highlighting the growing disconnect between headline risk and equity price strength. The FOMC left rates unchanged in a split decision, while the policy backdrop shifted again with Trump announcing Warsh as the next Fed chair.

FX markets added noise as reports suggested BoJ intervention in JPY. Commodities remained the clear leadership trade: gold surged to $5.5K and silver to $120 before both reversed sharply in violent swings, uranium went parabolic, and aluminum reached a four-year high. Against this backdrop, crypto traded as a source of liquidity rather than a destination, repeatedly framed as dumping or mixed while metals continued to command attention.

Crypto price action largely reflected that macro dominance. Headlines pointed to crypto selling off after the Fed decision and again as metals whipsawed, with only brief stabilization when the dollar weakened. Activity was highly concentrated rather than broad-based. HYPE stood out, rising 25% as HIP-3 open interest hit $790M, then accelerating 50% in two days as volume surged.

Meme activity was cited as doubling in daily active addresses, driving sharp but fragile moves, including CopperInu reaching $15M and CLAWD collapsing 90% following a bot name change. Structural stress also surfaced beneath the surface, with SOL validator count down 65% versus 2023 and BTC mining hashrate crashing due to Storm Fernan.

Institutional and infrastructure headlines leaned toward long-term positioning rather than short-term risk appetite. Strategy bought $264M of BTC while BMNR added $117M of ETH, and Metaplanet announced plans to raise $137M in equity to buy BTC. Binance pledged a $1B fund tied to BTC, while Kazakhstan moved to bolster reserves with seized BTC. 

At the same time, notable flows highlighted ongoing repositioning, with $397M of ETH moved to Gemini and another dormant wallet shifting $145M. On the resilience side, BTC quantum risk was described as manageable, ETH developers moved hack funds into a new security fund, the ETH Foundation entered a period of mild austerity, and a post-quantum security team was formed alongside work on FOCIL and the upcoming MegaETH mainnet launch.

Product expansion and regulation continued to advance in parallel. COIN launched prediction markets nationwide via Kalshi, while Polymarket tracked toward an ATH $3B in monthly volume and signed an exclusive MLS licensing deal, even as the CFTC signaled new rules for prediction markets and Kalshi opened a DC office. 

Tokenization momentum broadened with HOOD planning 24/7 tokenized stock trading, OKX and Binance considering tokenized stocks, and the Hang Seng debuting a tokenized gold ETF, echoed by new yield-bearing tokenized gold for DeFi. 

Stablecoin narratives accelerated with Fidelity planning FIDD, Tether launching USAT in the US, and Tether described as the largest gold holder outside nations and banks, alongside a StanChart projection of $500B moving from banks to stablecoins by 2028, even as US banks were reported to block or delay 40% of crypto payments.

Regulatory momentum remained active but uneven, with the SEC and CFTC launching Project Crypto, the Senate Ag committee advancing on crypto only to delay hearings and face an ethics amendment, the White House pushing legislation forward, and the SEC clarifying tokenized securities rules while moving to dismiss the Gemini Earn lawsuit with prejudice. Internationally, Russia signaled a crypto framework rollout in July while banning WhiteBIT, Japan sought public input on stablecoin collateral and floated crypto ETFs in 2028, and South Korea moved to allow investment in overseas crypto.

Market Data Points

BTC sentiment has deteriorated sharply. Historically, spikes in fear of this magnitude have tended to emerge late in corrective phases rather than at the start, often coinciding with retail capitulation and elevated volatility. For now, sentiment remains fragile and price action is likely to stay choppy, particularly as broader risk markets and commodities continue to digest recent pullbacks. While extreme fear can eventually set the stage for stabilization, the near-term environment still favors caution over conviction.

Gold continues to attract sustained institutional demand, with central bank holdings now exceeding foreign holdings of US Treasuries in global FX reserves for the first time in over two decades. Official gold reserves have risen sharply since 2019, driven by consistent central bank accumulation alongside higher prices, while Treasury holdings have remained broadly flat.

China continues to accelerate its shift away from dollar-denominated assets, reducing its holdings of US Treasuries while steadily increasing gold reserves. Gold holdings have reached a record high, more than doubling over the past decade, while Treasury exposure has fallen to the lowest level in nearly two decades. The divergence highlights an intentional diversification strategy toward hard assets and away from traditional reserve instruments.

US consumer savings continue to deteriorate, with the personal savings rate falling to 3.5%, the lowest level since late 2022 and among the weakest readings outside crisis periods. Savings have declined sharply over the past year, with pandemic-era excess buffers now fully depleted and aggregate savings levels down nearly 40% from recent highs. The drawdown highlights growing pressure on household balance sheets and suggests reduced capacity for discretionary spending or risk-taking.

US banks continue to carry a sizable mark-to-market overhang, with unrealized losses on investment securities totaling roughly $337B. While these losses remain unrealized and concentrated in held-to-maturity portfolios, they reflect the lasting impact of higher interest rates on bank balance sheets. The persistence of these losses limits balance sheet flexibility and keeps pressure on lending conditions, even without immediate stress.

Majors & Memes

It was a difficult week for crypto, with price action reflecting risk aversion and a clear absence of fresh capital entering the space. BTC fell about 7.4% over the past seven days, while ETH underperformed again, down roughly 10.6% on the week, reinforcing a softer ETH/BTC dynamic as higher beta exposure remained out of favor. BNB was relatively resilient with a 6.1% decline, while SOL dropped around 8.4% after failing to hold upside momentum. XRP and DOGE both slid more than 10% on the week, while TRX stood out defensively, down just 2.2%.

Outside the majors, performance was uneven and highly selective. A small number of tokens posted strong weekly gains, led by HYPE, which rose nearly 30% on heavy volume. CC advanced about 24%, while SENT and ADI delivered outsized gains of roughly 40% and nearly 60% respectively. These moves appeared isolated and momentum-driven rather than indicative of a broader shift in sentiment.

Weakness, however, was far more widespread. SUI fell approximately 17.7%, ICP dropped about 17.0%, and ARB declined close to 15%, reflecting continued distribution and fading upside interest. Deeper drawdowns were visible further down the market, with AXS, DASH, SAND, and MANA posting weekly losses in the 25% to 30% range, highlighting how quickly speculative excess has been unwound.

Overall, the weekly tape points to a market still under pressure, with no clear signs of rotation or capital flowing back into crypto. Interest and enthusiasm continue to favor commodities, leaving digital assets in a defensive, consolidative posture. Until broader risk sentiment improves and leadership expands beyond a few isolated outperformers, crypto is likely to remain choppy and selective rather than trending decisively higher.

Smart Money Moves

Flows remain constrained, but that has been the operating condition for months and is now the baseline rather than a signal. What matters in this environment is where capital continues to show up despite those limits, how much is being committed over the 30 day window, and whether participation reflects isolated positioning or shared conviction.

The more constructive profiles are those where weekly inflows are reinforcing an already positive longer term balance. MEMDEX shows roughly $49.6K of 7 day inflow sitting on top of a positive $44.3K over 30 days, with activity coming from a single wallet. The concentration keeps the footprint narrow, but the alignment across windows suggests the position is being maintained rather than flipped.

COPPERINU stands out more on participation. About $45.9K of 7 day accumulation aligns spread across 31 wallets. In a restricted flow regime, that breadth matters. It points to confidence being shared rather than sponsored by one actor, which tends to make the trend more durable. WAR shows a similar structure at slightly lower scale, with roughly $40.4K of inflow across both the 7 and 30 day windows, coming from five wallets.

NOCK also remains constructive, with about $38.0K over 7 days adding to a $27.2K positive 30 day balance, driven by three wallets. The flow is smaller, but the absence of longer term pressure keeps the profile supportive.

Where the read shifts is in names where 7 day inflows are working against still negative 30 day trends. CLANKER shows roughly $40.1K of weekly inflow, but that sits against a $80.5K net outflow over 30 days, with activity coming from four wallets. BUTTCOIN looks similar but larger, with about $32.2K over 7 days versus a much deeper $134.8K 30 day drawdown, despite 32 wallets taking positions. In both cases, the wallet count signals attention, but the longer window suggests stabilization or repositioning rather than confirmed accumulation.

The Chinese memecoin segment continues to show interest, but the momentum appears to be slowing rather than extending. 哈基米 has seen about $26.9K of 7 day inflow across 11 wallets, yet remains down roughly $126.7K over 30 days.

Overall, capital remains selective and deliberate. Positive 30 day balances continue to define which names are structurally supported, while 7 day flows highlight where interest is reinforcing those trends or cautiously rotating back into names that have already corrected. In this regime, persistence and participation matter more than size, and confidence shows up most clearly where inflows are sustained and shared rather than fleeting or concentrated.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

BTC spent the week moving from momentum into digestion. What started as a solid hold near the top of the range gave way once macro stress hit, and BTC ended up consolidating instead of following through higher. The drop itself was sharp, but the tell was in the follow-through: leverage got cleaned out, liquidations stayed contained, and price found its footing around higher-timeframe support.

On-chain looks like rotation under pressure, not a market top, with short-term holders doing the selling and longer-term cohorts staying steady. For now, BTC is range-bound and trading macro first. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• BTC shifted from momentum into digestion, consolidating below prior support

• Macro took over: tariff fears + JGB stress drove higher rate volatility and risk-off

• Open interest compressed hard, confirming deleveraging over spot capitulation

• Funding cooled without flipping into an aggressive short regime

• Liquidations were contained and mechanical, not cascading

• Price stabilized near higher-timeframe support after the leverage reset

• ETFs were the headwind: big outflows early, then flat not a real rebound

• Cross-asset rotation was defensive: equities softer, yields up, gold/silver surging

• On-chain shows rotation, not distribution: STH selling and overhead supply, LTH/whales steady, inflow spikes brief

Market Update

Macro did most of the heavy lifting this week. The risk tone improved early as futures lifted on a better-than-expected US Q4 GDP print, but the market couldn’t hold a clean “growth is fine” narrative because rates kept tightening the frame. US 10Y yields pushed to their highest since August while Japan’s bond market repriced hard, with JGB yields hitting fresh highs as BoJ holdings slid toward 10-year lows. That combination turned each headline into a positioning event.

Equities bounced when Trump scrapped EU tariffs, then rolled over as trade-war fears returned alongside the Japan yield jump. Even with US M2 at $22.3T and China flagging a more flexible 2026 GDP target, the clearest tell was how capital behaved: gold, silver, and platinum making new ATHs pointed to hedging and defense, and the slump in pending home sales was a reminder that higher yields still bite. With fund manager cash at the lowest ever, there wasn’t much buffer for volatility.

BTC and ETH followed that macro tape. BTC couldn’t turn rallies into momentum, and Glassnode’s point about overhead supply fits with what you see in a headline market: sellers show up quickly into strength and follow-through dries up. ETH was weaker, sliding even when macro looked briefly supportive, and JPMorgan’s view that the recent activity bump may not last added to the cautious read on demand.

The week also had enough crypto-specific noise to keep people defensive: BTC hashrate fell from October highs, ETH saw a transaction spike tied to address poisoning, and a dormant whale moved $85M of BTC after 13 years. None of that changes the longer-term story on its own, but it does raise the bar for chasing risk while macro is dictating the pace. Elsewhere, leadership was narrow, with RIVER standing out and isolated flows rather than broad risk-on participation.

Institutional activity, by contrast, kept pushing forward and was arguably the more important signal than the day-to-day chop. MSTR’s $2.1B BTC purchase, its largest in more than a year, reinforced that the corporate bid is still there. Strive’s plan to raise $150M to buy BTC and retire debt landed in the same bucket: balance sheets are still being positioned around BTC even when the market is stuck in a range.

On the product and capital markets side, GLXY’s plan for a $100M crypto hedge fund and Delaware Life offering an annuity with BTC exposure showed crypto continuing to get wrapped into more traditional vehicles. BitGo’s IPO and Ledger weighing a NY IPO added to the sense that the industry is still moving toward regulated, mainstream funding channels, especially with Revolut preparing to apply for a US banking license.

The strongest thematic flow sat in tokenization and market structure. NYSE planning 24/7 tokenized securities trading, SuperState raising $82.5M for RWA tokenization, ONDO launching tokenized stocks on SOL, and LINK rolling out on-chain data for tokenized US stocks all pointed in the same direction, which is why Fink’s call for “one common blockchain” resonated.

Moving on, SAGA paused its EVM chain after a $7M exploit, Makina Finance saw a $5M stablecoin pool exploit, and a pricing glitch at Paradex triggered mass liquidations, all reminders that execution risk remains part of the package. Lastly, regulation moved in parallel, not cleanly but steadily: HK is moving toward stablecoin licensing in Q1, Thailand signaled crypto ETFs and futures, Vietnam opened exchange licensing, and US bill progress continued alongside signs of delay.

Taken together, the setup stayed split: macro volatility is still gating near-term risk, but the institutional and market-structure build continues in the background.

Market Data Points

Tokenized Treasuries crossed a meaningful threshold this week, with total value surpassing $10B, highlighting how quickly real-world asset tokenization is moving from pilot phase into scale.

Gold’s role in global reserves continues to expand in a way that reinforces the broader defensive shift underway. It now accounts for roughly 25% of total world reserves, a meaningful increase, yet still sits well below both the USD’s share and gold’s own weighting during the 1970s and 1980s.

That context matters. The recent move is not a sign of saturation, but of catch-up, driven by persistent concerns around currency debasement, geopolitical risk, and reserve diversification. As Liz Thomas points out, if the forces behind current gold accumulation remain in place, there is still room for the trend to extend. The implication for markets is clear: this is less about short-term price momentum and more about a structural reallocation toward hard assets that continues to run alongside tighter financial conditions and elevated policy uncertainty.

Investor sentiment has swung decisively toward risk, with institutional appetite now sitting near cycle highs. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P Global Investment Manager Index climbed to +41 in January, its strongest reading since April 2021, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase.

Expectations are similarly lopsided, with a clear majority of fund managers looking for US equity gains over the next 30 days and only a small minority bracing for losses. The signal here isn’t just optimism, but crowding. With risk appetite elevated and near-term outlooks stretched, positioning looks increasingly one-sided, raising the sensitivity of markets to any macro or policy shock that challenges the consensus.

The dollar role in global reserves continues to erode, with its share falling to the lowest level of this century. Institutions have been steadily reducing dollar exposure over the past two decades, a trend that has accelerated more recently.

This isn’t a short-term trade, but a structural reallocation tied to diversification, geopolitical risk, and confidence in alternative reserve assets. In the current context, it helps explain both the persistent bid in gold and the growing interest in non-sovereign or tokenized alternatives, as reserve managers look to spread risk rather than concentrate it in a single currency bloc.

Large-holder and treasury-linked activity picked up this week, with several notable BTC movements that reinforce how much supply is consolidating in strategic hands. The treasury cohort continues to grow its footprint over time, and the recent acceleration reads less like opportunistic trading and more like deliberate balance-sheet positioning.

The takeaway is simple: even when spot is choppy, larger players are still actively managing exposure, which supports medium-term structure while the market works through short-term noise.

Majors & Memes

Majors ended the week under pressure, with the tone clearly shifting from consolidation into a broader pullback. BTC closed the last seven days lower by mid-single digits, losing momentum after failing to hold recent highs. ETH underperformed on a relative basis, posting a double-digit weekly decline and continuing to lag the broader complex, which kept rotation away from the second-largest asset rather than toward it. BNB and TRX both held up comparatively better but still finished the week lower, while SOL was among the weaker large caps, retracing sharply and giving back more than the rest of the majors. XRP and DOGE also faded over the period, reinforcing a tape where leadership narrowed and downside pressure spread unevenly across the top end of the market.

Outside the majors, upside was highly concentrated and largely idiosyncratic. RIVER was the clear outlier, posting a triple-digit weekly gain and standing well apart from the rest of the field. A second tier of winners followed, led by AXS, KAIA, OG, MYX, and ZRO, all delivering strong multi-week advances that pointed to momentum-driven participation rather than broad-based risk appetite. The common thread among gainers was follow-through in names that were already moving, rather than fresh breakouts across the wider alt universe.

On the downside, losses were broader and more evenly distributed. ENA was among the heaviest laggards, joined by weakness in ARB, SUI, APT, and XMR, all of which saw double-digit weekly declines. Larger thematic names such as NEAR, FIL, WLD, ICP, and PEPE also remained under pressure, while POL, TAO, and CRV extended their drawdowns. In several cases, declines were accompanied by heavy volume, consistent with profit-taking and de-risking rather than simple illiquidity gaps.

The broader read-through is that participation remains limited and highly selective. While a handful of tokens posted outsized gains, most liquid names struggled to hold bids, and the majors failed to provide a stabilizing anchor. Strength showed up in bursts and rotated quickly, while weakness was more persistent across a wide set of recognizable tokens. Until leadership reasserts itself in BTC and relative performance in ETH improves, the market continues to look more like a corrective phase with isolated momentum pockets than the start of a durable, broad-based trend.

Smart Money Moves

Flows remain muted overall, which is consistent with the current market regime. What activity does show up is concentrated rather than expansive, with capital working selectively instead of rotating broadly across the tape. The cleanest positioning signal is 1, which leads both the 7D and 30D windows (~$565K) while participation stays relatively contained at 31 traders.

That combination, sustained net inflows without a surge in trader count, reads as intentional accumulation rather than momentum chasing. MEMES and SPACE also hold constructive profiles, with positive 24H flow layered on top of positive 7D and 30D balances, suggesting the bid remains present but controlled.

The concentration of flows is the more important signal than the absolute size. SPARKLET and STO show meaningful 7D and 30D inflows ($226K and $110K) with just one trader involved, pointing to single-wallet positioning rather than participation-led moves. FHE and FIGHT show a similar pattern at smaller scale, reinforcing the view that positioning is being built quietly in thinner liquidity rather than chased in size.

Where the longer window diverges, the message is different. WHITEWHALE shows a small positive 7D flow against a deeply negative 30D balance (-$1.1M), which looks more like short-term stabilization within a broader unwind than fresh accumulation. 哈基米 also shows recent inflows after a negative 30D trend, fitting rotation or speculative re-entry rather than sustained building. Overall, the picture fits the regime: limited risk appetite, muted flows, and selective accumulation where 7D and 30D trends align and participation remains tight.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

Markets continue to send mixed but increasingly constructive signals. Macro conditions are easing at the margin, with softer inflation data, improving liquidity expectations, and renewed strength in hard assets pointing to a backdrop that remains supportive for risk. Equities are holding up despite ongoing rotation, while gold, silver, and copper pushing to fresh highs underline persistent demand for inflation hedges and real assets.

Crypto is responding, but in a measured way. BTC pushed to a two-month high before stalling, leaving price range-bound even as ETF flows turned decisively positive and institutional activity picked up. Spot demand is quietly absorbing supply, volumes have returned, and structural adoption continues to advance, yet participation remains selective rather than euphoric. The gap between improving flows and cautious price action is widening, and how that tension resolves is likely to define the next phase of the market. Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• Macro volatility eased into a more supportive tone as CPI came in cooler, jobless claims undershot estimates, and equities stabilized despite ongoing rotation and policy noise.

• Hard assets surged, with gold, silver, and copper at all-time highs, reinforcing demand for inflation hedges and liquidity-sensitive positioning.

• BTC pushed to a two-month high alongside a clear turnaround in ETF flows, marking the strongest inflow week in roughly three months.

• BTC upside is being led by spot demand rather than leverage, pointing to healthier structure and stronger hands driving price.

• ETH lagged BTC on price but saw its staking queue rise to the highest level since 2023, signaling longer-term positioning.

• SOL and BNB benefited from a pickup in activity, with on-chain usage reaching a nine-month high and volumes returning across the market.

• Institutional adoption continued to deepen, with banks, asset managers, and treasuries expanding crypto exposure and infrastructure.

• Advisor surveys show overwhelming intent to maintain or increase crypto allocations into 2026, supporting structural demand.

• Market breadth remains selective, with strength concentrated in a few leaders and momentum pockets while many tokens lag.

Market Update

Markets moved through another volatile but constructive week, with macro signals pulling sentiment in both directions before settling into a more supportive tone. US equity futures swung around inflation data, initially slipping on PPI and ahead of CPI, then stabilizing as CPI came in cooler than expected and jobless claims undershot estimates.

Beneath the surface, rotation remained a dominant theme, with tech facing intermittent sell pressure even as broader indices found support from banks and value exposure. Policy noise stayed elevated, from renewed uncertainty around Trump-era tariffs and fresh chip export restrictions to headlines around the DOJ opening a criminal investigation into Chair Powell, which briefly rattled risk assets before Powell publicly reaffirmed he would remain in his post.

Against that backdrop, the move to fresh all-time highs in gold, silver, and copper signaled persistent demand for hard-asset exposure and reinforced the sense that liquidity and inflation hedging remain central to positioning.

Crypto tracked that improving macro tone with clearer follow-through. BTC pushed to a two-month high as inflows accelerated, coinciding with a notable turnaround in ETF activity and the largest net inflow seen in roughly three months. That shift marked a change from the recent stop-start pattern and suggested institutional demand was re-engaging rather than fading.

ETH lagged BTC on price but saw a sharp buildup in its staking queue, the highest since 2023, pointing to longer-term positioning even as spot performance lagged. SOL and BNB benefited from a broader pickup in activity, with on-chain usage rising to a nine-month high, while overall trading volumes returned across the market, improving liquidity conditions after a quieter stretch. Retail signals, however, remained subdued, with crypto YouTube viewership falling sharply, reinforcing that this move continues to be driven from the top down rather than by speculative crowd behavior.

Institutional and infrastructure developments continued to shape sentiment. Wells Fargo’s decision to allow BTC as collateral for loans, BNY Mellon activating tokenized deposits, State Street expanding its tokenization efforts, and Galaxy closing a $75M tokenized CLO all highlight the steady normalization of crypto within traditional financial plumbing. 

Strategy added another $1.25B of BTC to its treasury, while Standard Chartered doubled down on its constructive stance, calling 2026 a pivotal year for ETH and outlining plans for a crypto prime brokerage. Market access widened further with CME adding new crypto derivatives, Bitwise launching a LINK ETF, and Deribit rolling out USDC-settled options for AVAX and TRX. At the same time, inflow expectations remained constructive, with JPMorgan flagging further increases into 2026, even as political friction around market structure and stablecoin legislation continued to delay clarity in the US.

Regulation and corporate activity remained noisy but directional. Crypto bills advanced in draft form but faced repeated postponements, stablecoin provisions remained contested, and lawmakers pressed regulators over enforcement retrenchment and developer protections.

Internationally, momentum was more decisive, with Ripple securing regulatory approvals in the UK and Europe, South Korea lifting its corporate crypto investment ban while tightening exchange rules, and multiple jurisdictions advancing tokenized securities frameworks. Elsewhere, privacy assets diverged sharply, with XMR hitting new highs before retreating as Dubai moved to ban privacy coins and scrutiny increased, while ZEC lagged despite the SEC ending its probe into the Zcash Foundation.

Taken together, the week reflected a market where macro pressure is easing, institutional participation is broadening again, volumes have returned, and crypto is beginning to respond through renewed flow, improving liquidity, and deeper structural engagement rather than speculative excess.

Market Data Points

Recent upside in BTC appears to be driven primarily by spot market activity rather than leverage. Positive percentage changes increasingly align with price stabilization and recovery phases, while pullbacks have been shorter and less forceful. That pattern suggests buyers are absorbing supply on spot rather than relying on futures-driven momentum.

When advances are supported by spot demand instead of expanding leverage, it generally reflects healthier market structure, with stronger hands leading the move rather than short-term positioning.

The gold-to-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time since 2012, marking a meaningful shift in relative performance between the two metals. Historically, sustained compression in this ratio reflects rising risk appetite within hard assets, with silver outperforming as capital rotates toward higher-beta exposure.

Moves like this tend to coincide with reflationary backdrops and stronger speculative demand, rather than defensive positioning. In a broader macro context, this kind of ratio breakdown often signals that liquidity is favoring growth- and volatility-sensitive assets over pure capital preservation.

Survey data from financial advisors already allocating to crypto shows a strong skew toward continued or increased exposure in 2026. An overwhelming majority plan to either raise allocations or keep them unchanged, with only a negligible share indicating any intention to reduce exposure.

This points to growing institutional comfort with crypto as a portfolio component, where the debate has shifted away from whether to hold it at all and toward sizing and timing. In practice, that kind of stickiness on the advisor side tends to support demand through market pullbacks, as allocations are treated more like strategic exposure than opportunistic trades.

Short-term holder SOPR has slipped back below 1, indicating that recent sellers are realizing losses rather than distributing into strength. This typically reflects late entrants being flushed out as price chops sideways, rather than confident profit-taking. When STH-SOPR sits below 1 during consolidation, it usually points to ongoing base-building, with weaker hands exiting and supply gradually transferring to more patient holders. In that context, the data continues to support the view that the market is working through positioning rather than transitioning into a fully extended phase.

Majors & Memes

Majors ended the week with a broadly constructive but still uneven tone. BTC was higher over the last seven days and kept a steady upward profile, while ETH did a bit better on a relative basis, hinting at some rotation back toward the second largest major rather than a full risk-on surge. BNB and SOL both held up well and stayed among the cleaner large-cap tapes, with TRX also finishing in positive territory on a calmer, steadier path. The weaker pockets were XRP and DOGE, both fading while the rest of the top complex stayed supported, which kept leadership narrow and selective.

Outside of majors, upside was concentrated in a small cluster of higher-beta and idiosyncratic names. DASH was the clear outlier with a standout week, while XMR and ICP followed with strong double-digit advances. A second tier of winners including PUMP, HASH, and SKY also pushed higher, reinforcing that the market’s best returns were found in momentum pockets rather than across the broader alt field. The dispersion among gainers remained wide, but the common thread was rotation into names that were already moving, with traders leaning into follow-through where it existed.

On the downside, losses were more evenly spread across recognizable tokens. LTC and POL were among the heavier drags, with BCH and ENA also slipping, while ONDO, WLD, ATOM, KAS, and PEPE remained under pressure. A number of smaller caps saw sharper drawdowns, which fits a tape where rallies are being traded rather than chased, and where bid support can thin out quickly once momentum stalls.

The broader read-through is that, despite a handful of outsized breakouts, overall breadth still looks limited. Strength is showing up in bursts and rotating quickly, while a meaningful portion of liquid names struggle to hold bids. That said, the macro backdrop still appears supportive of a broader breakout attempt if risk appetite stays firm, and the way leadership is holding in BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL keeps that outcome on the table. Until participation widens beyond a few leaders and the laggards stabilize, the market still reads more like consolidation with selective momentum than a clean, durable trend.

Smart Money Moves

Smart money activity over the last seven days continues to look selective rather than aggressive, extending a pattern that has largely defined this market since around October 10. The week was quiet in absolute terms, but that quiet has been the regime for months, with capital rotating carefully rather than chasing momentum. Within that backdrop, a small set of names stands out for showing clean 7-day inflows that also remain supported on the 30-day window, which reads more like patient position-building than short-term trading. POWER, LYN, JOE, and TERRA fit that profile, with buying that looks steady and intentional rather than headline-driven.

A distinct feature this week is the presence of multiple tokens listed under Chinese-language names, including 安, 哭哭马, 哈基米, 马车财神, and 山野万里 你是我藏在微风里的欢喜. This activity is concentrated on BNB Chain, and the combination of sustained net inflows with a relatively small set of participants points to whale-driven accumulation outside the usual English-speaking venues. It also lines up with what a lot of traders have been observing on the ground: more effort to bridge into non-English communities and liquidity pockets where attention can be earlier and price discovery can be more fragmented. When flows start showing up in these zones, it’s often a signal that risk appetite isn’t gone, it’s just operating off the main stage.

Zooming out, buyer distribution reinforces the same theme. A few names are clearly driven by concentrated wallets, while others show slightly broader engagement, but still nothing resembling broad speculative heat. TRADOOR and METIS stand out for stronger 30-day accumulation relative to their most recent weekly pace, which can point to earlier positioning ahead of a rotation rather than a late momentum chase. Taken together, the data still reflects a cautious tape, but one where capital is quietly finding its targets, and where the most interesting activity is increasingly happening in smaller, less crowded corners of the market.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

Markets are sending mixed but increasingly interesting signals. Equities and hard assets continue to attract capital as liquidity expectations improve, yet crypto remains stuck in a positioning phase rather than a full-blown risk-on regime.

BTC showed strength earlier in the week but failed to push through, leaving price trapped in range while flows and institutional activity quietly build beneath the surface. With macro tailwinds improving and structural adoption accelerating, the gap between improving fundamentals and cautious price action is widening — and that tension will define the next phase of the market. Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• US equities stayed bid; mega-cap tech leadership supported risk.

• Gold and silver surged, reinforcing a “risk-on but hedged” backdrop.

• Macro tone leaned liquidity-positive with Fed leadership chatter and 2026 cut talk; BoJ outlook improving.

• Crypto lagged: BTC failed to push through; ETH, SOL, BNB stayed heavy with ETF outflow pressure.

• XRP weakened alongside its first net ETF outflows; alts broadly continued to bleed.

• Institutional/treasury demand stayed active: large BTC adds, big ETH buying and staking, Florida eyeing a BTC reserve.

• Morgan Stanley advanced ETF filings and plans for trading/wallets; JP Morgan signaled de-risking is fading and JPM Coin is coming.

• DATs not being excluded from MSCI reduced a potential forced-selling overhang.

• Infrastructure kept building: Polymarket expansion, JupUSD launch, Wyoming stablecoin on Solana, tokenized stocks over $1B AUM.

• Breadth remains weak: a few standout winners, but most coins still below key moving averages

Market Update

Global markets continued to trade with a firm bid this week, with US equities pushing higher as the S&P 500 closed just under 7,000 and the Dow Jones climbed above 49,500. Strong productivity data and renewed confidence in large-cap technology, highlighted by Alphabet overtaking Apple by market value, helped keep risk appetite elevated.

That optimism was mirrored in hard assets, with gold settling at $4,510 and silver surging nearly 4% toward $80, signalling that capital is rotating not only into equities but also into stores of value as investors position for looser financial conditions. With the Fed approaching a chair decision, calls emerging for significant rate cuts in 2026, and the Bank of Japan preparing to lift its growth outlook on stimulus, the macro backdrop remains tilted toward liquidity and forward growth, even as bearishness toward oil hits a decade high and highlights a shift away from late-cycle trades.

Crypto markets have struggled to keep pace with that broader risk-on tone. BTC, ETH, SOL and BNB all remained under pressure as ETF flows stayed negative and traders continued to de-risk, leaving price action heavy despite improving macro conditions. XRP fell 10% alongside its first net ETF outflows, and the wider altcoin complex continued to slide, reinforcing the sense that positioning in crypto remains defensive even as other asset classes show renewed confidence.

Beneath the surface, however, institutional and treasury activity tells a very different story. Strategy added $116M of BTC over the past week, BitMine accumulated 33K ETH, and Sharplink deployed $170M of ETH into Linea staking, while Florida announced plans to hold BTC as part of a state reserve. 

Morgan Stanley filed for BTC and SOL ETFs and is preparing to allow crypto trading and wallets, and JP Morgan said crypto de-risking is likely over as it prepares to roll out JPM Coin on the Canton network. Even with miners such as Riot selling BTC to manage weaker economics, the balance of large-scale capital flows continues to lean toward accumulation rather than exit. In parallel, risk framing around benchmark access remained in focus after headlines that DATs will not be excluded from MSCI for the time being, easing an overhang that could have amplified forced selling pressure.

Within the ecosystem, capital is increasingly flowing toward infrastructure and real-world integration. Polymarket expanded into real estate and signed an exclusive deal with Dow Jones, Jupiter launched its JupUSD stablecoin with Ethena, and Wyoming issued a state-backed stablecoin on Solana, pointing to the steady institutionalization of on-chain finance. Tokenized stocks surpassed $1B in assets under management, Fireblocks agreed to acquire crypto accounting firm TRES, and Optimism proposed buybacks for OP, even as pockets of fragility remained visible through a major exploit that wiped TRU and renewed volatility around ZEC following developer departures.

Regulatory and corporate developments remain the key swing factor for sentiment. A major crypto bill is moving toward critical Senate votes later this month, South Korea confirmed plans to allow crypto ETFs, and FINRA added crypto policy figures to its board, while firms across finance and tech continue to lean in. Binance launched traditional-finance perpetuals, WLFI sought a bank charter to bring its USD1 stablecoin onshore, and Rumble rolled out a crypto wallet. The net result is a market where macro and institutional tailwinds are strengthening even as near-term flow pressure keeps crypto prices constrained, setting up a growing tension between improving fundamentals and cautious positioning.

Market Data Points

MVRV has cooled from earlier stretch levels, consistent with valuation resetting rather than trend failure. This is the kind of compression you typically see when the market digests prior gains and burns off excess optimism. As long as price holds structure, a softer MVRV profile tends to be more constructive than bearish because it reduces froth without requiring a deeper capitulation.

SOPR is hovering near 1, meaning realized selling is occurring close to aggregate cost basis rather than at strong profit. That usually signals profit taking has been largely absorbed and marginal sellers are losing urgency. In practice, SOPR around breakeven often marks a transition phase where the market is more sensitive to flows, but less prone to relentless distribution.

The BTC to stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance has been rising, indicating that stablecoin balances are being deployed into BTC rather than sitting idle. This matters because Binance tends to reflect more active trading capital than passive custody flows. When this ratio rises during a consolidation, it often points to early stage accumulation rather than speculative excess.

The ETH validator queue remains elevated, meaning more ETH is waiting to enter staking than exit. That dynamic implies continued confidence in Ethereum’s yield and security model even during periods of market chop.

Majors & Memes

Majors finished the week with a mixed, slightly defensive tone, and the overall market still felt more like consolidation than a clean trend. BTC showed promising strength earlier in the week, but it ultimately couldn’t break through and sustain the move, leaving it stuck in a familiar range rather than kicking off a broader risk-on leg. ETH lagged relative to the pack, while BNB and SOL held up better and managed to stay constructive on the week. XRP and TRX were among the steadier large-cap performers, while DOGE remained softer, reinforcing that leadership is still narrow and selective rather than broad-based.

The most notable upside was concentrated in a handful of higher-beta names that clearly captured rotation and momentum. XCN was the standout leader, while RENDER and POL also put in strong weekly moves alongside a cluster of other winners including JASMY, STX, VIRTUAL, and GLM. 

On the laggard side, weakness was more widespread and, in several cases, sharp. NIGHT, ZEC, and RIVER were among the heaviest losers, while other names like UNI, QNT, FIL, ONDO, TON, and DOT also bled lower. When even recognizable, liquid tokens can’t hold bids and keep trending down, it usually speaks to a market that’s still prioritizing capital preservation and short-term trading over building durable positions.

The broader read-through is that, despite isolated breakouts, most coins remain below key moving averages and the altcoin market still has a long way to go before it looks like a true recovery. With BTC unable to convert early-week strength into a decisive breakout, the default posture stays cautious: rotation is happening, but it’s happening inside a market that still lacks breadth and sustained follow-through.

Smart Money Moves

Smart money flows this week still look selective and quiet, with no broad resurgence in speculative risk, but a clear cluster of small-cap accumulation. DREAMS leads the board on seven-day inflows and also remains positive on the 30-day window, with CULT, URANUS, and PAYAI showing a similar profile. The main signal is the persistence of net buying across the 7-day and 30-day columns, even when 24-hour activity is muted, which suggests positions are being built gradually rather than expressed through short, reactive bursts.

The distribution of buyers adds another layer. Several of the leading inflow names are driven by a very small number of smart-money wallets, while a second tier shows broader engagement across more traders. GF, LLDAP, PAPAPARSE, MONOLOG, and ALAMOFIRE fall into that more distributed bucket, and LLDAP stands out for stronger longer-term accumulation relative to its weekly flow.

Taken together, the picture remains consistent with a cautious tape: the market isn’t seeing wide risk appetite, but capital is still rotating into a narrow list of targets where conviction appears higher. With weekly inflows supported by positive 30-day flows, the data reads more like ongoing accumulation than a late-stage momentum trade.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

The new year opens with BTC still locked in its broader range. Price managed to push through $90K briefly, but that attempt has faded and we are now trading just back below that area. The move above resistance was more of a test than a clean regime change. For now, $90K is acting as the upper boundary of a band rather than a level that has been convincingly reclaimed.

What stands out is the contrast between the tape and the underlying behavior. Even with that push, sentiment has not meaningfully improved. Most participants still read the move as a rally inside a larger range rather than the start of a new leg. Headlines remain cautious, ETF investors have not returned in size, and there is little evidence of aggressive retail chase. Beneath that, long term holders, whales and patient capital continue to quietly add, using the back and forth around $90K as an opportunity rather than a signal that the cycle is over.

Where BTC Currently Stands

On shorter time frames, the picture is still that of a market testing the top of its range rather than breaking out cleanly. The four hour chart managed to push through the moving average band that had been capping price, but that improvement has faded a little and BTC has slipped back under the top of the range. Instead of turning that area into firm support, the market is treating it as a level to probe and reject. For now, it remains the reference point for sellers rather than a confirmed base for the next leg.

Sentiment has not changed much, and that is not necessarily a negative. The tone across social channels, traditional media and ETF flows is still cautious. Most people see this as back and forth inside a band, not as the beginning of a trend. There is very little evidence of fear of missing out or aggressive chasing. If the structure does eventually improve and acceptance builds higher in the range, that wall of skepticism can become useful fuel rather than a headwind.

ETFs And Positioning

The ETF side of the market has not turned yet. Recent data show BTC products with sizeable net outflows in the hundreds of millions of dollars and ETH funds seeing smaller, but still negative flows. Some of the flagship funds have booked outflows in the majority of the past ten weeks. Assets under management are down roughly a third from the peak and have returned to levels last seen around mid 2025. Crypto funds more broadly saw meaningful weekly outflows.

The message is straightforward. The more conservative, benchmark driven money is still in de-risk mode. It is not capitulating in a panic, but it is not adding either. From the point of view of market structure, ETFs are still a headwind. They are not yet providing the strong, persistent bid that helped support previous advances. When this side of the market stabilises and then starts to print consistent inflows again, it will be an important confirmation that the risk appetite of larger pools of capital has turned.

Derivatives, Liquidity And Market Tone

Derivatives, by contrast, look like the early stages of rebuilding rather than a late stage blow off. Open interest has been ticking higher alongside price, but not in a way that looks overstretched. The market is adding leverage, but in a measured fashion.

Funding is near flat to slightly negative, which tells you that longs are not being forced to pay up aggressively to hold positions. There is no obvious sign of crowded leverage or one sided positioning that needs to be washed out immediately.

Calm derivatives markets combined with a slow grind higher is typically a healthier way to start a new phase than a straight line impulse. It allows risk to be rebuilt without immediately pushing the system into instability.

On-Chain Behaviour And Risk Profile

On-chain data still carries the scars of the previous drawdown. Long term holder realized losses have been rising, which means some older coins have been sold at a loss, a sign of fatigue and capitulation on the margin.

Measures of the percentage of supply in profit are sitting near zones that have historically corresponded to cycle transition points. Risk indices point toward a late stage consolidation environment, but not a confirmed trend reversal yet. At the same time, long term holder cohorts have flipped back into net accumulation over the past month. Part of that is older holdings maturing into the long term bracket.

Source

Furthermore, the Sharpe ratio for BTC over the past year has turned negative, which means that investors have been paid poorly for the volatility they carried, a typical late cycle pattern in consolidations.

Source

Lastly, price remains inside its two year valuation band. Structurally, that is a market that has digested a lot, but has not yet made its next major decision.

Source

Taken together, on-chain indicates that smart money is buying boredom and uncertainty, but not yet fully chasing either.

New Fed Chair, Politics and the Liquidity Path

The policy backdrop is shifting in a way that increasingly leans supportive for digital assets.

With a new Federal Reserve chair soon stepping in under a White House that clearly prefers easier financial conditions, the bias over the next stretch looks tilted toward accommodation rather than restraint. We still need to learn the new chair’s style and how they communicate around inflation, but the political alignment matters. A Fed leadership team backed by an administration that openly favors growth and markets is unlikely to fight easing for long.

Rate cuts remain uncertain in timing and size, yet the direction of travel looks clearer than it did months ago. Inflation has cooled, growth is uneven, and the broader system is being nudged toward relief. That makes it increasingly difficult to imagine a scenario where policy stays tight through 2026.

At the same time, global liquidity continues to expand. Balance sheets are gently growing, repo usage is active, money supply is pressing higher, and the dollar’s broader tone is softer. Historically, environments like this tend to lift financial assets that benefit from scarcity and narrative, rather than hurt them.

Put simply, 2026 is likely to shape up as a period where easier policy, rising liquidity, and a friendlier macro backdrop gradually come together. It will not remove volatility. But it sets the stage for assets like BTC to operate with the wind at their back rather than in their face.

What To Expect In The Near Term

In the immediate future, BTC still has work to do. Holding above $90K is the first test. Building real acceptance above that level and slowly turning it into a reliable area of support would confirm that the market has moved out of the prior compression. From there, the next questions become how ETF flows evolve, whether derivatives continue to rebuild in a measured way, and whether spot demand stays resilient into any pullbacks.

The base case is not that everything suddenly accelerates. The base case is that BTC spends time proving this range out, shaking out weak conviction on both sides, and giving larger capital time to re-position around a changing macro regime. Short-term volatility will be driven by flows around key levels and the ongoing tug of war between de-risking in some channels and accumulation in others.

GM Anon!

BTC is finishing the year in a quiet holiday band. Price is sitting near $87K and moving between roughly $86K and $89K. Conditions are thin, and moves tend to start and stall. Short-term moving averages keep capping every bounce, and there’s very little follow-through in either direction.

ETF flows have leaned risk-off. Funds have been trimming rather than adding, which removes demand at the margin. Derivatives have lightened up: leverage has bled out, and funding is only mildly positive. On the other side, whales and mid-sized holders continue to accumulate while coins keep drifting off exchanges.

It feels slow, but there is a lot happening underneath the surface.

Looking Back On The Year

This year reminded everyone what a maturing asset looks like.

We saw the arrival of major crypto products, with ETF flows swinging between strong accumulation and meaningful redemptions, deep pullbacks turning into fast recoveries, and long stretches of range trading in between. Retail participation stayed relatively muted, but new users still arrived through institutional products and regulated channels.

On-chain, fewer coins sit on exchanges than at the start of the year, with more supply migrating to stronger hands while institutions keep building out the infrastructure layer in the background.

At the same time, macro liquidity kept expanding: M2 made new highs, the dollar softened, gold and silver rallied, and equity leadership concentrated even further. Across asset classes, capital behaved as if it still expects a world where liquidity matters more than the day-to-day news flow.

Overall, it wasn’t an easy year to stay in crypto, even with a supportive macro backdrop, but yet underneath the surface the foundations kept moving in a healthier direction.

The Mixed Picture Today

Currently, short-term and long-term signals are telling very different stories. In the short term, BTC is still range bound, ETF flows are uneven, options exposure is heavy, and many shorter-term holders remain underwater and sell into strength.

Further out, supply continues to leave exchanges as larger entities absorb coins, stablecoin liquidity stays firm, adoption keeps climbing, and banks, corporates, and institutions are positioning for a world where BTC sits inside the financial system rather than outside it.

This is what a transition phase looks like: pressure builds, price chops, and the foundations quietly shift.

Looking Toward 2026

The conversation around BTC is starting to change in a big way. There is increasing talk that major United States banks could custody BTC, lend against it, and treat it as collateral, while liquidity models that compare BTC to gold still place fair value well above current prices.

None of that is a guarantee; it simply frames the risk. Short-term weakness can coexist with long-term strength, and range trading can sit alongside ongoing structural adoption.

The path from here is one where BTC increasingly anchors itself inside traditional finance, eventually carrying other parts of the crypto market with it.

And that is likely the world we are heading into.

If price drifts lower into high liquidity support zones, it does not automatically mean something is broken. In this environment, it often means the longer-term accumulation window just became a bit more attractive.

Wrapping Up

This year reminded everyone that BTC rarely moves in a straight line. It ranges, tests patience, shakes confidence, and then eventually rewards the people who built structure and stayed disciplined.

As we head into the new year, the near term may remain choppy, but the bigger picture still points toward an ecosystem with growing liquidity, stronger infrastructure, deeper adoption, and more credible institutional participation.

If you are reading this, thank you for sticking through the noise. In markets like this, the people who stay engaged, manage risk, and keep showing up are usually the ones who end up being rewarded.

GM Anon!

Another week of failed breakout attempts, and the market is starting to feel it. Every push higher looked promising on the surface, but none of them stuck long enough to change the tape. Crypto has been choppy and reactive, with conviction staying thin and positioning increasingly selective. It wasn’t a collapse, but it wasn’t progress either. More digestion, more patience, and a market still waiting for real follow through. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• CPI surprised lower, briefly stabilizing markets before data quality concerns capped risk appetite.

• BoJ’s 25bp hike added global tightening pressure, keeping equities fragile.

• Crypto stayed volatile alongside weaker stocks, with BTC dominance rising.

• $300B dormant BTC moved while whales accumulated ~$23B, pointing to redistribution not panic.

• BTC active addresses hit a one-year low, showing thinner retail participation.

• XMR pushed toward its 2021 highs; SOL balanced innovation with network stress.

• Institutions kept accumulating, led by large BTC and ETH balance-sheet buys.

• Market access expanded via XRP ETFs, CME futures, and onchain Treasury pilots.

• Stablecoin and payment rails accelerated across Visa, PayPal, and global banks.

Market Update

Markets opened the week on a cautiously constructive footing after CPI came in below expectations, helping stabilize futures and briefly ease pressure across risk assets. That initial relief was tempered as economists flagged potential flaws in the November inflation report, raising questions about how durable the disinflation signal really is.

Outside the U.S., the Bank of Japan’s 25bp rate hike reintroduced a tightening impulse into the global macro mix, contributing to a softer equity tone as the week progressed. In parallel, AI-linked deal flow remained active, with OpenAI reportedly in talks with the UAE for funding, and that theme carried into crypto-adjacent equities as Hut 8 surged on an AI deal involving Anthropic and Fluidstack.

Crypto price action reflected the shakier equity backdrop, trading volatile as stocks fell and BTC dominance pushed higher, signaling a more defensive internal rotation. On-chain data pointed to redistribution rather than capitulation, with $300B in dormant BTC entering circulation in 2025 alongside roughly $23B of whale accumulation over the past month, even as BTC active addresses fell to a one-year low. That combination suggests activity is becoming more concentrated among larger holders. Within majors, XMR stood out as it approached its May 2021 ATH, while SOL remained a focal point both for progress, piloting quantum-resistant transactions, and for resilience under pressure, facing sustained DDoS attacks during the week.

Institutional activity and market structure developments continued to build beneath the surface. Strategy disclosed an additional $980M BTC purchase, while BitMine added $141M more ETH and separately reported a larger $321m ETH buy, reinforcing ongoing balance-sheet accumulation. Market access broadened further as spot XRP ETF inflows surpassed $1B and CME launched spot-quoted XRP and SOL futures.

Tokenization and infrastructure initiatives also advanced, with DTCC beginning an onchain Treasury test on Canton, Securitize moving toward launching “real” stocks onchain alongside Anchorage’s acquisition of its wealth management unit, and OKX rolling out spot margin trading in Europe. Coinbase expanded its product suite with stock trading and prediction markets, while MetaMask introduced BTC support.

Payments, stablecoins, and regulatory signals rounded out the week’s narrative. Visa rolled out USDC settlement on Solana, PayPal introduced a PYUSD savings vault on Spark, and Ripple tapped Wormhole to expand RLUSD to Layer 2s, while Exodus and MoonPay moved to launch a USD stablecoin, SoFi introduced its own stablecoin, Japan’s SBI Holdings announced plans for a stablecoin, and Russia’s Sberbank began testing DeFi products.

On the policy front, the Fed withdrew its 2023 crypto restrictions, the SEC confirmed broker-dealers can maintain crypto private keys, the FDIC proposed a stablecoin application framework, and senators pushed to advance crypto legislation, including a bill aimed at combating fraud. 

Legal and political crosscurrents remained active, with the Senate confirming CFTC chair pick Seelig, the Clarity Act pointed to January, Terraform’s liquidator suing Jump Trading for $4b, Coinbase suing three states over prediction markets, Binance exploring a U.S. relaunch, and Bitwise filing for a SUI ETF. Overall, the week reflected a market balancing macro uncertainty with steady structural progress, keeping risk appetite cautious but engaged.

Market Data Points

BTC dominance has been a two-act story this year. First half was BTC-led as dominance expanded and marked rotation lows. Midyear onward, dominance trended lower as ETH and alts got more room. October’s deleveraging broke the rebuild attempt, and the year-end bounce in dominance has faded.

SOPR slipping below 1 confirms coins are being spent at a loss, which fits marginal capitulation and weak-hand cleanup. It does not call a bottom by itself, but it often shows up late in sell pressure within a range, where further downside needs a fresh catalyst.

Long-term holders are active, but it’s distribution into strength, not a panic exit. The 30-day LTH distribution metric has surged to cycle-high levels, yet overall LTH supply remains near record territory and only modestly off the highs. That implies supply is being absorbed rather than dumped wholesale, constructive if spot demand holds.

Short-term holders remain underwater, with STH MVRV below 1 and stress still visible in recent cohorts. It’s an uncomfortable regime, but historically it resolves through stabilization once loss-taking exhausts.

Bottom line: sellers are present, but behavior is orderly. The next leg depends less on leverage and more on whether spot demand shows up strongly enough to clear overhead supply.

Majors & Memes

Weekly price action across the majors remained heavy, with most large-caps finishing the week lower despite brief rebounds. BTC slipped about 2.5% on the week, continuing to churn rather than break down, while ETH underperformed slightly with a roughly 3.5% decline. BNB followed a similar path, down just over 3%, and SOL and XRP both saw deeper pullbacks of around 5% over the seven-day window. DOGE also faded, losing just over 4%. TRX stood out as the exception among majors, posting a modest weekly gain of roughly 2.4%.

Away from the large caps, performance was far more polarized. On the upside, HUMANITY and FTN dominated the leaderboard with outsized weekly gains well above 100%, reflecting sharp momentum-driven moves off relatively lower base levels. NIGHT also printed a strong advance of around 35%, while mid-tier gainers such as SYRUP, CC, and PIPPIN posted high-teens to low-20% advances. Among more established names, XMR added about 8% on the week and BCH gained roughly 6.5%, both benefiting from rotation into names showing cleaner relative trends versus the broader market.

On the downside, weakness was concentrated in previously strong and higher-beta names. LGCT saw the sharpest drawdown, falling more than 65% over seven days, while PUMP, ASTER, FARTCOIN, and TAO all posted losses in the 20–30% range. Broader pullbacks were also visible in liquid large- and mid-caps, with STRK, MON, ENA, HYPE, and ONDO all down low- to mid-teens on the week.

Smart Money Moves

Trench activity is still quiet, but the last seven days show selective smart money engagement rather than a full retreat. Flows are small in absolute terms, yet they clustered into a few names. ZK and PING lead with roughly $40K and $38K in 7-day inflows, both driven by a single wallet, making them targeted bets more than crowd trades. Below that, KLED, NEOX, and SURF also saw steady net buying, but sizing stays cautious, consistent with “probe first, press later” behavior.

Holdings remain concentrated and mostly stable, reinforcing the idea that smart money is prioritizing structure over turnover. TIBBIR is the standout allocation at roughly $1.3M across multiple wallets, while VIRTUAL shows a sharp balance increase off a small holder base. JELLYJELLY and ATH also show incremental adds, whereas larger names like CRV, MKR, and CAKE look broadly unchanged, suggesting they’re being held rather than actively rotated.

On the attention side, token popularity continues to spike and fade rather than trend cleanly higher, which fits the cautious flow profile. Names like ENA, JELLYJELLY, and PING appear to catch bursts of interest, but it doesn’t look sustained across the full week. Net-net, the data reads like quiet accumulation in a handful of setups, with smart money staying selective and keeping risk contained until broader participation returns.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

BTC is still stuck in a tight compression range, fading attempts to reclaim the low $94Ks and trading more like a positioning market than a clean trend. Post FOMC, the Fed’s message landed closer to neutral, which capped follow through in risk and left BTC oscillating between range support and resistance while leverage stays contained. Today we’ll break down what to watch going forward now that the event risk is behind us.

Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• Post FOMC, liquidity looks supportive but not accelerating as the Fed cut 25 bps while signaling policy is near neutral.

• Risk markets held up well with equities at highs and gold and silver breaking out, pointing to continued hard asset demand.

• BTC remains range bound between the high $80Ks and low $90Ks, failing to reclaim the $93.5K–$94K zone so far.

• ETF flows show caution, not stress, with modest outflows and no signs of capitulation.

• Derivatives positioning is clean, with open interest near $28B and funding close to flat after the leverage reset.

• On-chain accumulation is strong, with over 75K BTC added by accumulator addresses in early December.

• Momentum is stabilizing but still early, with a weekly reclaim above $93.5K–$94K needed for confirmation.

• Focus shifts to confirmation and flows, with upside dependent on a clean range breakout and downside risk reopening only below $85K–$87K.

Post FOMC Market Update

Liquidity supportive, confirmation still missing

Markets have largely digested this week’s FOMC, and the picture that’s emerged is one of support rather than acceleration. The Fed delivered a 25 bp cut, but the details mattered more than the headline. Three dissents and guidance pointing to policy near neutral capped enthusiasm, reinforcing the idea that the easing cycle is transitioning into a slower, more deliberate phase rather than a fresh liquidity surge.

Despite that, broader risk markets responded constructively. U.S. equity futures pushed higher after the Dow and S&P 500 printed new all time highs, while commodities continued to lead. Gold extended its advance and silver broke to fresh records, now sitting at its most overbought levels in decades. That combination suggests liquidity is still present in the system and increasingly expressing itself through hard assets rather than high beta risk.

China added to the backdrop by signaling modest stimulus expectations for 2026, reinforcing the idea of steady global liquidity rather than aggressive reflation. The Fed’s announcement of a $40B bond purchase program aimed at reserve management also helps anchor near term financial conditions, even if it stops short of being a full easing signal.

BTC Remains Trapped in Compression

BTC continues to trade as a positioning market rather than a pure macro expression. Price remains stuck in a familiar consolidation range between the high $80Ks and low $90Ks, with repeated failures to reclaim the $93.5K to $94K zone keeping upside momentum contained. The structure is stabilizing, with higher lows holding since the late November flush, but confirmation is still absent.

ETF flows reinforce that interpretation. Recent prints show modest outflows rather than stress, with BTC ETFs down roughly $77.5M and ETH around $44.4M. These are not capitulation numbers, but they do reflect caution and short term de-risking rather than aggressive accumulation through these vehicles.

Derivatives positioning looks notably cleaner than it did heading into November. Open interest is holding near $28B without rebuilding aggressively, and funding rates across venues remain close to flat. That combination points to a market that has largely flushed excess leverage and is now waiting for a catalyst rather than forcing direction.

Accumulation Continues Under Surface

While price churns, on-chain behavior remains quietly constructive. Accumulator addresses added more than 75K BTC in early December, including a single day absorption of roughly 40K BTC. Total holdings for these entities now sit near 315K BTC, and their activity appears largely insensitive to short term ETF noise or momentum swings.

Historically, this kind of steady accumulation during sideways price action has acted as a medium term support mechanism rather than an immediate upside trigger. It does not guarantee a breakout, but it reduces the probability of sharp downside unless broader liquidity conditions deteriorate.

Momentum indicators are beginning to stabilize after a prolonged negative phase, but they remain early. A sustained weekly reclaim of the $93.5K to $94K region is still the key signal that consolidation is resolving higher rather than extending.

Macro Context Still Favors Hard Assets

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. Global M2 has pushed to new highs near $130T, driven largely by China, reinforcing longer term liquidity tailwinds. The fact that gold and silver are making new highs alongside strong equity performance suggests this is not a risk off environment, but one where capital is selectively expressing itself.

BTC’s relative underperformance versus metals highlights the current phase. Liquidity is present, but crypto remains sensitive to flows, positioning, and confirmation rather than leading the macro trade outright.

What Matters From Here

BTC remains range bound, low leverage, and coiled. The market is no longer in a trending down phase, but it has not yet earned a trend higher.

What to watch next:
• A sustained reclaim of the $93.5K to $94K zone on a weekly basis would mark the first meaningful improvement in structure.
• A loss of the $85K to $87K support area would reopen downside risk and signal renewed stress.
• A breakout accompanied by controlled funding and gradually rising open interest would be healthier than a fast squeeze driven by leverage.

With FOMC behind us, the focus shifts back to flows, confirmation, and patience. Liquidity is building in the background, strong hands are accumulating, and hard assets are leading. BTC’s next move is less about macro permission and more about whether it can convert this compression into a clean structural breakout.

Market Data Points

Over the past month, net flows rotated toward L2s and a handful of high-beta ecosystems. Arbitrum led by a wide margin, with Starknet, Sei, Base, Solana, and Polygon PoS also positive; even Bitcoin and Ink printed small inflows. On the other side, outflows were concentrated in Hyperliquid and large L1 stacks like Ethereum and BNB Chain.

CryptoQuant’s trader realized price bands frame BTC as range-bound with a defined upward path. The current profile leaves room to ~$99K, with the next meaningful caps at $102K and $112K. Acceptance above the mid-band into $99K would signal spot demand outweighing recent supply, while follow-through through $102K and a hold above it would shift the near-term bias constructive toward $112K.

ETH is back to its old rhythm: accumulation, then a clean break on both ETH/BTC and ETH/USD. It reclaimed the prior range high (around the 0.03 area on ETH/BTC), and ETH/USD is lifting out of its sideways band in sync. That combo with relative strength and absolute trend turning up together signals more than a bounce. Hold above those reclaimed tops, and you’ve got the start of an ETH-led leg.

Binance “shrimp” activity looks quiet. CryptoQuant’s <1 BTC deposit inflows show the 30-day average sitting far below the 2021–23 highs, and within the ETF era the aggregate in the highlighted window fell from about 1,056 BTC to ~411 BTC. That points to muted retail participation on Binance despite higher prices. Spot demand appears to be coming from elsewhere, while exchange-native retail flow remains subdued, keeping the tape cautious rather than euphoric.

Strategy printed a big buy, adding 10,624 BTC for ~$962.7M at ~$90,615 per coin. That lifts total holdings to 660,624 BTC, accumulated for ~$49.35B at an average ~$74,696, with a reported 24.7% BTC yield YTD.

Majors & Memes

The majors delivered a mixed but generally stable week, with price action reflecting consolidation rather than strong directional conviction. BTC edged modestly higher over seven days, holding its ground after recent volatility but failing to show a decisive breakout. ETH outperformed on a relative basis with a stronger weekly gain, extending its rebound and showing firmer momentum than BTC. BNB also posted a small advance, while SOL managed a mild recovery after earlier weakness. XRP finished slightly higher but remained choppy, while DOGE drifted marginally lower. TRX was the clear underperformer among large caps, posting a notable weekly decline and continuing its recent downtrend.

Away from the majors, leadership rotated into a mix of selective narratives and higher beta names. ZEC stood out as one of the strongest large movers, posting a sharp double-digit weekly gain on heavy volume, placing it firmly at the top of the leaderboard. MemeCore, Canton, and Mantle also delivered solid weekly advances, reflecting renewed momentum in smaller ecosystem and infrastructure-linked tokens. OKB, AAVE, and TAO added steady gains, suggesting selective risk appetite rather. On the weaker side, selling pressure was more concentrated than widespread. KAS and QNT both saw notable weekly declines, pointing to profit-taking after prior strength. ALGO, HBAR, and VET also trended lower, with price action suggesting fading momentum and limited follow-through from buyers. 

Overall, the tape reflects a market still in digestion mode. Majors are mostly consolidating, leadership is narrow and selective, and underperformers are seeing controlled pullbacks rather than disorderly selling. The balance between modest gains in core assets and sharper moves in pockets of the alt market points to cautious positioning, with traders rotating rather than committing aggressively in either direction.

Smart Money Moves

Trench activity remains muted overall, with no broad resurgence in speculative risk, but the last seven days do show clear signs of selective smart money engagement. Net flows are modest in size, reflecting a cautious tape, yet they are consistent across several names, which is often how positioning starts in quieter market phases. SORA stands out with roughly $66K in 7-day inflows, followed by 哈基米, BIBI, SCC, and SURF, all of which saw steady net buying despite limited follow-through in price. Importantly, many of these tokens also show positive or stable 30-day flows, suggesting accumulation is extending beyond a single short-term impulse rather than being purely reactive.

Looking at holdings, smart money exposure remains concentrated rather than dispersed, reinforcing the idea of deliberate positioning. Larger, more established allocations are visible in META, LDO, USCC, and TIBBIR, where balances are meaningful in size and have held steady over the past week. In contrast, several of the names showing inflows on the flow dashboard are still held by a small number of wallets, pointing to early-stage accumulation rather than crowded trades. Taken together, the data suggests the trenches are still quiet at the surface, but capital is quietly rotating into select setups where conviction appears higher, favoring patience and structure over aggressive risk-taking.

Prediction markets continue to stand out as one of the clearest winners of this cycle, with Polymarket sitting at the center of that activity. Wallet participation has kept climbing steadily, with active wallet counts pushing to new highs into year end. The growth is not coming from a single category either.

Engagement spans politics, macro, sports, crypto, and technology, which points to broad user adoption rather than a short lived speculative burst. Importantly, activity has remained elevated even through periods of market consolidation elsewhere, suggesting stickier usage than many other onchain narratives.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

The market is still sitting on unstable ground, but not in a one-way bearish story. This week split sentiment again: some see the start of a deeper unwind, others think we’re just stretching the cycle rather than topping it.

Near-term price action is messy, but the backdrop hasn’t broken. Macro is noisy, not hostile — funding support is creeping in, rate-cut expectations are surging, and the tape is trying to stabilize even as BTC keeps slipping back under key levels. Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• Macro stayed choppy: BoJ likely to hike, Hassett eyed for Fed, Fed adds $13.5B via repos.

• Apple hit a new ATH and $4.2T market cap while funding conditions stayed fragile.

• BTC chopped: ETF outflows spiked, a mid-week pump faded, and price slipped back under 90K.

• Miner margins are tight, liquidity thin, but sovereign funds and Strategy are still adding BTC.

• ETH shipped Fusaka and pushed ZK privacy, even as DAT purchases dropped sharply.

• Tokenisation ramped: Kraken bought Backed Finance, Nasdaq and Sony moved on RWAs/stablecoins, PYUSD supply tripled.

• Regulators were busy across US, EU, UK and Asia, with MiCAR’s Dec 30 deadline locked in.

• Perp DEXs and on-chain rails remain core to price discovery and risk transfer.

• Trenches have gone quiet as liquidity shifts to prediction markets with far higher volumes.

• Only a few small caps (ADS, CLANKER, BIBI, NYAN, etc.) saw modest smart-money inflows.

Market Update

Macro was noisy again this week. The BoJ is now seen as likely to hike this month, while in the US the market is adjusting to the idea of Hassett as the next Fed chair. The Fed quietly added $13.5B via overnight repos, a reminder that funding conditions are still delicate even as risk assets grind higher at the index level.

Apple continues to do the heavy lifting for equities, pushing to a fresh all-time high and a $4.2T market cap. At the policy level, the IMF warned that large stablecoin footprints could weaken central bank control, and China doubled down on its crypto ban and stablecoin risk messaging, setting a cautious tone around monetary sovereignty.

Crypto chopped around rather than trending. After BTC ETFs logged their largest daily outflow in two weeks, we saw a sharp mid-week pump as rate-cut odds firmed and Vanguard’s decision to allow crypto ETFs hit the tape, briefly improving sentiment. That strength didn’t fully stick, though; BTC rolled back over and dipped below 90K again into the end of the week.

Larry Fink flagged sovereign wealth funds as active BTC buyers, providing a clearer anchor for the bid at the top of the market even as miners face the toughest margin squeeze of the cycle. Strategy leaned into that narrative, building a $1.44B dividend reserve and reiterating that selling BTC is a last resort; JPMorgan framed the firm’s balance-sheet resilience as a key piece of the BTC story. On the ETH side, the Fusaka upgrade went live, ZK privacy work moved forward, and BitMine’s holdings crossed 3% of supply, even as ETH DAT purchases slowed sharply to 370K ETH in November.

Institutional and tokenisation themes stayed busy beneath the price action. Kraken bought Backed Finance to deepen its RWA and tokenised-securities stack, while Nasdaq said it intends to move fast on tokenised stocks and Sony laid groundwork for a USD stablecoin. 

EU banks kept pushing ahead on a EUR-denominated stablecoin, and PYUSD’s supply has already tripled since September. Hashkey cleared a key hearing and is set to start its IPO process next week, highlighting Hong Kong’s push to position itself as a regulated hub. Strategy’s balance-sheet moves, Vanguard’s ETF pivot and sovereign allocations all point to a slow but steady broadening of the institutional base, even as spot and derivatives volume on exchanges sits at the lowest levels since June.

On-chain and DeFi activity was more selective. Aave’s DAO is openly questioning the cost/benefit of its multichain expansion, while Yearn recovered $2.4M in stolen assets and ETH perps DEX Lighter added spot trading. Tokenisation and crypto finance kept building out: Sonnet shareholders approved a $1B HYPE DAT merger, Kalshi moved its prediction markets fully on-chain using Solana, and Base prepared to support SOL-based assets natively. 

At the same time, BTC miners are under pressure, Cloudflare outages briefly disrupted crypto apps, and Huoine Pay had to shut down until January 5 after bank-run style stress. In the culture corner, Pudgy Penguins announced an NHL partnership and Punk floors slipped below BTC, highlighting how thin liquidity is even at the top of NFT collections.

Regulators and policymakers stayed active across regions. South Korea pushed forward both the second phase of its crypto act and a separate stablecoin bill, Russia signaled it may loosen parts of its crypto regime, and Argentina’s state energy firm YPF floated the idea of accepting crypto payments. 

The UK passed a bill that brings property law explicitly to bear on digital assets, while Italy pinned down December 30 as the end of MiCAR’s transition period. Germany and Switzerland jointly shut down a $1.4B mixer, and the FDIC is preparing a December proposal for GENIUS implementation. 

The SEC flagged an “innovation exemption” for crypto coming in about a month, even as CoinShares pulled back XRP, SOL and LTC ETF filings. Against that backdrop, Binance named He Yi as co-CEO, Upbit’s audit of a $30M hack uncovered a wallet flaw, and Tether’s CEO went back on the record defending USDT’s asset coverage. The net effect is a market that’s still feeling heavy on activity and light on outright risk-taking, but with clear signs that the institutional and regulatory rails are getting built regardless of short-term price noise.

Market Data Points

Ethena’s TVL has been cut roughly in half — from ~$15B to ~$7B — after a brief USDe de-peg on Binance spooked leveraged arb flows and forced a rapid unwind. The shock exposed how much TVL was tied to positive spread trades rather than sticky demand, and it arrived alongside ecosystem setbacks like the shutdown of Terminal Finance.

Privacy has been the outlier trade this year. Privacy Coins are up roughly +237% YTD, while nearly every other bucket shows deep double-digit declines—many in the -50% to -80% range. Even the sturdier categories lag: ETH screens modestly positive at about +16%, BTC shows a small YTD dip, and exchange tokens sit slightly negative.

Public miners’ cost curve has shifted higher. CoinShares pegs the average cash cost to mine 1 BTC at ~$74.6K in Q2’25, and the all-in average (incl. depreciation and stock comp) at ~$137.8K. The dispersion is wide—low-cost operators still clear healthy margins, while higher-cost names are effectively at or above breakeven on an all-in basis—implying tighter balance sheets, more treasury selling risk, and a fresh incentive for efficiency gains and consolidation if price softens. In short: the industry is far more price-sensitive than earlier in the cycle, and cost leadership matters.

Retail still owns the spot-BTC ETF story. Bernstein estimates retail holds roughly three-quarters of assets, while institutional ownership has climbed from about 20% at end-2024 to 28% as of Nov 16, 2025. The mix says depth is improving without crowding out the original buyer base—institutions are scaling in, but flows remain retail-led, which helps explain the stop-start tape and sensitivity to headlines.

Perp DEXs just cleared $1T in volume for the second straight month in November — roughly 4× year-on-year and 15× over two years. That’s not a niche anymore; it’s a core venue for price discovery and risk transfer. Liquidity is clustering on a few leading protocols, spreads are tighter, and on-chain funding now meaningfully steers positioning alongside CEXs. The upside is resilience and 24/7 composability; the caveat is higher leverage cycling faster through the system, which can amplify moves when funding flips or liquidity thins.

Majors & Memes

Majors were mostly range-bound this week with a slight downside bias. BTC slipped about 1% over seven days as volatility compressed after the mid-week swing, while ETH eked out a 1.2% gain. BNB was essentially flat with a small uptick, and SOL drifted lower by roughly 2.6% after failing to hold brief strength. XRP was the clear laggard in the top tier, down 7.2%, while TRX stood out with a 3.3% rise, again behaving as a defensive outlier in an otherwise choppy tape.

Below the majors, leadership was narrow. HASH, BCH, RAIN, LINK, and WBT featured among the stronger names, posting single- to low double-digit gains as capital rotated into a handful of stories rather than the broader alt complex. Further out on the risk curve, speculative names drove the biggest moves: PIPPIN, LUNC, ALCH, BUILDON, ULTIMA, BEAT, MYX, FARTCOIN, BTSE, TEL, and EGLD all logged outsized weekly advances, reflecting targeted momentum rather than a broad-based altcoin move.

On the downside, weakness was more widely distributed. ZEC and CC led the sell-off with drops north of 25%, while APT, ICP, FLR, KCS, HYPE, AVAX, POL, UNI, ASTER, WLD, ONDO, NEAR, and ATOM all traded heavily lower, mostly in the low- to mid-teens. Smaller caps such as LGCT, MON, FTN, HAJIME, DCR, XPL, STRK, UDS, DASH, APEPE, MORPHO, EIGEN, and DEXE posted similarly sharp retracements. The overall pattern is consistent with a cautious, liquidity-first market: majors are holding in a broad range, while alts remain a high-beta expression where traders are quick to punish weakness and selectively reward only the cleanest momentum setups.

Smart Money Moves

Activity in the trenches has fallen off hard, and the shift is visible everywhere. The usual rotation into microcaps has evaporated, liquidity is thin, and the heat maps that once lit up with constant churn now look flat. The token-popularity charts makes the picture obvious: where attention was once concentrated across a handful of high-velocity names, interest collapsed almost overnight, splintering into smaller pockets with none of the prior momentum.

Most of that flow has migrated into prediction markets, which have become the new outlet for risk-taking. Traders who spent the year grinding through low-float memes and microcaps are now sizing into real-world event markets instead, where outcomes feel cleaner and liquidity is deeper. Volumes across major PM platforms are now several multiples higher than what SOL-based trading bots or meme pools are seeing.

Even so, a few tokens managed to attract smart-money interest over the last seven days, though the scale is modest compared to prior cycles. Names like ADS, CLANKER, BIBI, and NYAN saw small but visible inflows, with ADS and CLANKER leading on 7D accumulation and a handful of traders leaning into them despite the broader slowdown. PFP, CYPR, 马到成功, 1, and WOJAK also picked up lighter bids, though the flows remain shallow and far from conviction size. These aren’t breakout setups — they’re more like selective probes in an otherwise frozen market.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

Crypto pushed higher this week, and the tone feels cautious but hopeful. The macro backdrop is improving at the margins, liquidity is functional, and desks are finding bids without chasing. Positioning is still tight and headlines remain noisy, yet momentum is building as the market anticipates rate cuts in December. Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• Stocks eye a red month as futures steady; US 10Y near 14-month lows, PPI in-line, December cut odds rise.

• Silver hits ATH; ECB warns of tech-bubble FOMO; policy tone pro-growth (US backs AI, Japan $135B stimulus, China slump).

• Crypto stable but tracking for record monthly outflow; BTC dominance slips on rotation.

• BTC ETFs post record volumes with net inflows Friday; ETH ETFs log three straight inflow days.

• Positioning is two-way: ~8% of BTC moved in a week; BTC below 50-week MA for two weeks; Sharpe near zero.

• ETH lifts block gas limit to 60M ahead of Fusaka; BitMine buys more ETH and signals a small dividend.

• SOL proposes doubling its deflation rate; HYPE volatile into unlock; MON up 2x off post-ICO low.

• Treasuries active: Strategy 6x covered at $74K BTC; Texas starts BTC reserve ($5M IBIT); Metaplanet draws $130M to buy BTC.

• DeFi and infra mixed: USDe TVL halved on yield compression; Aerodrome/Velodrome front ends compromised; MegaETH snags; Wormhole to bridge MON.

• Regulation and risk tighten: Australia licensing, UAE adds DeFi/web3, Spain tax talk, Korea crackdown; S&P cuts Tether score to “weak”; Japan hack reserves; Lazarus tied to $32M Upbit hack.

Market Update

Macro ended the week with a cautiously supportive tone. Equities are still on track for a red month even as futures hold steady after a late rally, and tech leadership is choppy with Nvidia lower while Google gained on a Meta chip headline. The rates backdrop eased as the US 10-year slipped toward 14-month lows, September PPI printed in line, and Powell’s allies signaled a December cut is likely. 

Silver printing an all-time high and the ECB warning that FOMO is feeding a US tech bubble underline lingering fragility, while policy headlines skew pro-growth with White House support for AI, Japan approving a $135B cost-of-living package, China confronting an unprecedented investment slump, and talk of income-tax cuts tied to tariffs.

Crypto traded steadier but the flow picture remains mixed. The asset class is still tracking toward its largest monthly outflow even as BTC ETFs posted record volumes with net inflows on Friday and ETH ETFs logged three straight days of buys. Positioning is two-sided: roughly 8% of BTC moved in the past week, BTC has now spent two weeks below its 50-week moving average and the Sharpe ratio is near zero, while dominance continues to slip as capital rotates.

ETH lifted its block gas limit to 60M ahead of Fusaka and BitMine added another $44M of ETH, reiterating accumulation alongside a small dividend plan. SOL floated a proposal to double its deflation rate. Binance-linked headlines were split, with the wallet adding support for on-chain stocks even as the firm faces a lawsuit alleging facilitation of payments to Hamas.

Institutional demand and treasuries stayed active. Strategy remains six-times covered on its debt at $74K BTC and was framed as a hedge for the crypto market, Texas opened a BTC reserve with a $5M IBIT purchase, and Japan’s Metaplanet drew $130M to buy more BTC. 

XRP ETFs saw $60M-plus of inflows, and product breadth widened with DOGE and XRP ETFs launching at Grayscale, a filing for the first Zcash ETF and a quick OKX listing that saw ZEC rebound to 600, plus a new 3x BTC and 3x ETH ETF from LeverageShares. Pro-crypto Kevin Hassett emerging as frontrunner for Fed chair adds a policy tailwind at the margin.

DeFi and sectors reflected stress and experimentation. Yield compression halved USDe TVL, while front ends at Aerodrome and Velodrome were compromised. MegaETH’s USDm pre-deposit launch ran into issues; Wormhole is set to bridge MON to Solana and MON has doubled from its post-ICO low. HYPE was volatile into its unlock, briefly slipping below $30 amid a squeeze and vesting overhang. 

Regulation was busy on both clarity and enforcement. Australia will require licenses for crypto platforms, the UAE added DeFi and web3 to its regulatory scope, Spain is weighing higher crypto taxes, Korea flagged a crackdown on exchanges, and Switzerland delayed sharing crypto tax information. 

In markets infrastructure, the CFTC approved Polymarket for the US while Kalshi was blocked for sports betting in Nevada and Robinhood is preparing a prediction market; Commissioner Pham is recruiting CEOs for an innovation council. Security and stability concerns persisted with Lazarus Group suspected in a $32M Upbit hack, Japan moving to require exchanges to hold reserves against hacks, and S&P cutting Tether’s stability score to “weak.”

Market Data Points

Over the last 7 days, flows skewed toward Hyperliquid and Ethereum, with Polygon PoS, Base, and Starknet also printing solid net inflows. Smaller positives showed up on Berachain, Sei, OP Mainnet, and Sui. On the other side, outflows were led by Arbitrum (by far the largest), followed by edgeX, Avalanche C-Chain, Unichain, BNB Chain, Linea, Solana, and Bitcoin.

Over the past 30 days — from the Oct 10 flush to this wee’s tentative bounce — the revenue winners were stablecoin issuers (Tether ~$701.8M, Circle ~$235.7M), derivatives venues (Hyperliquid ~$97.5M, edgeX ~$49.1M, Lighter ~$26.8M, Jupiter ~$19.3M, Axiom Pro ~$20.5M), and steady money infrastructure (Tron ~$30.8M, Phantom ~$13.5M, Aerodrome ~$13.6M, PancakeSwap ~$9.2M, Sky CDP ~$13.9M, Aave ~$10.9M, ORE ~$9.8M). In short: dollars and perps drove usage in the drawdown; core DeFi kept earning; and if risk keeps thawing, DEX and long-tail app revenues should be next to re-accelerate.

Stablecoin rails have gone mainstream. Over the last 12 months, on-chain transfer volume topped $50T, led by Ethereum ~$16.7T and a surprisingly strong Base ~$14.7T, with Tron ~$7.6T, Solana ~$7.1T, and Avalanche ~$0.83T rounding out the top five. The split tells a clear story: Ethereum remains the anchor, Base is scaling real payments at speed, Tron keeps its remittance niche, and Solana is gaining share. With volumes this large, stablecoin velocity matters more than headline supply and it continues to underwrite liquidity across CEX, DEX, and OTC flows.

More than 8% of the entire BTC supply changed hands in the last seven days. You rarely see that kind of churn outside of true stress moments — think late-2018 and March-2020. It’s the footprint of forced de-risking and large-scale redistribution: weak or levered holders puking into deep pockets, UTXO age bands resetting, and price discovering new, stickier owners.

Events like this don’t call the bottom by themselves, but they often coincide with the end of a leg rather than the start of one. After these shocks, markets usually transition from disorderly selling to two-sided trade as realized losses are absorbed and volatility starts to compress. The next tells are straightforward: do ETF/spot flows stabilize, does funding normalize, do short-term holders stop bleeding coins to long-term cohorts, and does realized profit/loss flip back to net positive? If those line up, this week’s turnover reads less like a breakdown and more like the clearing event a new base can build on.

DeFi has reclaimed the lead in collateralized lending: lending apps now hold 55.7% share (+588 bps QoQ), while CeFi is at 33.1% (-36 bps) and crypto-collateralized CDP stables have fallen to 11.2% (-547 bps). Grouping CDPs with lenders puts on-chain credit at 66.9% dominance, essentially back to its late-2024 peak. The shift reflects borrowers favoring flexible, transparent, and instantly liquidatable on-chain markets over CeFi accounts and mint-and-hold CDP debt.

Majors & Memes

Majors put in a strong week, with the broader market leaning decisively risk-on. BTC climbed roughly 8% over the past seven days, continuing its steady push higher and setting a firmer tone after the recent chop. ETH outperformed with an 11.6% gain, showing the cleanest trend among large-caps and attracting renewed momentum. 

SOL added about 9.5% despite some mid-week volatility, while BNB advanced 6.6%. XRP was the standout large-cap mover, up 13.7% with one of the strongest weekly curves. TRX stayed muted at just under 2%, and DOGE matched the broader rotation with a 9.9% rise.

The top performers came from a mix of mid-caps and narrative-driven names. RAIN led with a ~99% surge, while KAS posted another heavy week at +54%. QNT, XMR, ENA, AAVE, FLR, MNT, WLFI, HBAR, OKB, CRO, SUI, PEPE, and SHIB all delivered double-digit gains, reflecting a broad rotation rather than a single catalyst. Within the secondary list, TOMI, FARTCOIN, BAT, SPX, VSN, BORG, TOSHI, KMNO, and PENDLE extended that momentum, keeping mid-cap flows firmly in the green.

Weakness remained isolated to the speculative end. M fell about 35% as liquidity rotated out, while ZEC dropped 14%. SOON, STRK, ZZ, APEPE, ICP, UNI, APT, TEL, ZEN, and DASH registered lighter losses in a -2% to -16% band. These moves looked more like targeted unwinds than broad risk aversion, with majors and mid-caps absorbing most of the week’s positive flows.

Taken together, the backdrop was constructive: large-caps pushed higher, mid-caps broadened out with strong absorption, and the laggards were contained to lower-conviction names. It’s the kind of rotation that typically appears when sentiment stabilises and ETF-driven liquidity supports a more risk-on posture.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money flows this week were thin and defensive, with most lines showing either mild trims or small, maintenance-level adds. Compared with prior weeks where a few names attracted strong conviction, this batch reflects a market that’s waiting rather than deploying.

Starting with the Solana ecosystem, the most notable outlier was SOLO, which posted a sharp increase of roughly +956%. The jump comes from a small starting base, but it’s still the only line where smart money clearly sized up rather than just rebalancing. 

Outside of that, adds were modest. Tokabu saw a single-digit lift in balances, consistent with wallets keeping it active but not building it into a larger position. KLED also edged higher with a fractional uptick while still holding one of the larger dollar allocations (~$676K), reinforcing its role as an established core line rather than a fresh directional bet.

The trimming side was more telling. URANUS took the heaviest reduction at about -23%, a clear sign of de-emphasis. GP (-27%) and Fartcoin (-12%) also saw meaningful cuts, indicating these higher-beta or less-conviction lines were the first to be shaved as the tape softened. BELIEVE and SURGE, both previous leaders, slipped by mid-single digits — not a capitulation, but enough to show reduced appetite for scaling size in names that had been momentum-driven in prior weeks.

Positioning on the EVM side stayed muted, with most lines barely moving and only one or two names showing real adjustment. This is the same low-velocity pattern as last week: wallets are maintaining exposure but not meaningfully expanding risk.

The clearest accumulation was SPX, which posted the strongest increase on the page at roughly +23%. That’s a material add relative to the rest of the set and signals selective willingness to scale into a name that still holds a decent dollar allocation (~$259K). It stands out as the only line where smart money expressed fresh conviction rather than just tuning an existing position.

There were a couple of smaller positive nudges. SERV picked up about +5%, consistent with incremental adds rather than a directional bet. BOOE saw a modest +4% lift, again too small to suggest real rotation but enough to show it remains an active hold.

Most other names were left unchanged. CULT, AP, and WOJAK sat at 0% for the week. That flat profile typically signals a “wait and watch” stance — these are positions being kept open while the market provides clearer signals. Notably, TRWA still holds one of the larger balances on the page (~$824K) and was trimmed slightly, indicating smart money is comfortable keeping it as a core allocation but is not adding into current conditions.

On the reduction side, cuts were mild. BITCOIN (-3.5%) and TRWA (-3.6%) saw the largest downward adjustments, and APU slipped just under -1%. These aren’t exits — they’re controlled trims, reflecting a cautious environment rather than outright risk aversion.

Overall, EVM flows mirror Solana: capital preservation over expansion. Wallets are keeping their established lines intact, trimming around the edges, and only scaling one or two names with clearer momentum (in this case, SPX). It’s a defensive tape, consistent with a market waiting for stronger macro or ETH-led confirmation before deploying size again.

Checking in on Nansen data, a few more additional small caps did attract fresh attention. YB and TROLL saw the largest 7D smart-money inflows on the page (around $60–70K each), with 67 and ZIPSTREAM-PHP also picking up meaningful but smaller bids. On the other side, ADS stood out as the only clear negative flow, showing net outflows over the week. Beyond these names, flows were scattered and shallow, reinforcing that smart money is only probing selectively rather than rotating in size.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

BTC briefly dipped into the high-70s before snapping back above $85K, helped by the first meaningful green ETF print since November 11 — roughly $238M in inflows. ETH even managed a positive flow. Nvidia essentially saved the market from a deeper unwind, beating expectations and stabilizing equities at a critical moment.

The crypto washout was positioning-driven rather than macro-driven, with no real shift in fundamentals behind the collapse. Liquidity is still tight and high-beta names remain heavy, but the tape looks less chaotic than it did just a few days ago. It isn’t strength yet, but the selling pressure finally shows signs of fatigue.

Let’s break down what unfolded this week.

TLDR

• Macro stayed volatile as strong jobs data and Fed hesitation clashed with markets suddenly repricing cuts.

• Nvidia’s rally faded, equities softened, and thin liquidity kept risk assets jumpy.
  BTC dipped below $80K, triggering the second-largest ETF outflow and a three-year RSI low.

• Forced flows hit hard: $1.4B BTC sold by Gunden, 10K ETH from FG Nexus, and nearly $1B moved by Mt Gox.

• Sentiment steadied as ETF flows turned positive, whales bought, and desks framed the sell-off as positioning.

• Institutions stayed active with the SOL and XRP ETFs, Coinbase expansions, and new RWA moves across Plume, NH, and Saudi real estate.

• Infra build continued: Kraken’s $800M raise + IPO filing, Aztec Ignition, OpenLedger AI, and Vitalik’s privacy/quantum updates.

• Regulators stayed noisy: US bills advanced, Korea pushed a 20–25% tax, Brazil eyed cross-border crypto taxes, and OCC cleared banks for gas-fee crypto.

• Cultural assets felt stress (Punks near 90K) while pockets like HYPE, ASTER, and TNSR bounced on momentum and fee spikes.

• Positioning remains cautious, stablecoin supply slipped, but forced sellers look done — the market ends the week far more stable than it began (hopefully).

Market Update

Macro conditions remained chaotic this week as markets absorbed stronger US jobs data, mixed signals from the Fed, and the unwinding of Nvidia’s earnings bounce. Early expectations for a December cut faded after payrolls beat forecasts and Vice Chair Barr reiterated lingering inflation concerns, yet prediction markets abruptly swung toward pricing in more aggressive easing.

Equities lost momentum as Nvidia’s gains reversed, gold softened, and liquidity remained tight enough to keep high-beta assets under pressure. The tone was less about macro deterioration and more about uncertainty and thin positioning — the kind of environment where volatility is amplified and forced flows dominate price action.

Crypto felt that stress directly. The drop that dragged BTC just below 80K triggered the second-largest ETF outflow on record, pushed RSI to a three-year low, and coincided with a wave of mechanical selling: Gunden exited a $1.4B position after 14 years, FG Nexus sold 10K ETH, Mt Gox moved nearly $1B BTC to an unmarked address, and institutional desks grappled with $1B in ETH DAT orders from Asia being shelved.

Noise increased as Tom Lee argued that parts of the sell-off were exacerbated by a software glitch, while Bitmine’s $3.5B unrealised loss added to sentiment drag. Yet the market stabilized meaningfully into the weekend. ETF flows flipped back to green, whales resumed accumulation, and StanChart and Bernstein framed the 25% slide as a positioning flush rather than a regime shift.

Strategy added $836M BTC despite the turbulence, Saylor reiterated that the firm could withstand an 80–90% drawdown, and El Salvador and Metaplanet disclosed a combined ~$195M of BTC buys. ETH saw modest inflows and fresh attention through new privacy work from Vitalik, alongside his call for quantum-resilience planning.

Institutional and infrastructure activity stayed surprisingly active in spite of the volatility. Fidelity pushed ahead with its SOL ETF, Bitwise launched its spot XRP ETF, and CBOE moved toward perp-style BTC and ETH futures. Coinbase continued expanding with ETH-backed loans via Morpho, a developing prediction-market and equities-trading stack, and its Aster spot listing, even as its Monad token sale lost early momentum.

RWA initiatives accelerated: Securitize partnered with Plume, New Hampshire advanced a BTC-backed muni bond, a Saudi real-estate group moved to tokenise a Trump hotel, and Tether invested in Ledn. Kraken confidentially filed for a US IPO and raised $800M at a $20B valuation, while OpenLedger launched the OPEN AI mainnet and Aztec rolled out its privacy-focused Ignition L2.

Regulators remained active across multiple jurisdictions. Tim Scott pushed for a December vote on a major crypto bill, Rep. Davidson introduced the Bitcoin for America Act, and Korea advanced both a 20–25% tax framework and new digital-asset definitions. Brazil examined taxing crypto used for cross-border payments, the IRS signaled it may soon gain visibility into foreign holdings, and the OCC opened the door for banks to hold crypto for gas-fee payments. 

MSCI’s potential removal of DAT companies added another layer of index-related uncertainty, while the CFTC and Congress faced renewed scrutiny on oversight boundaries. The cultural end of the market wasn’t spared either: Punks’ floor dropped toward 90K with liquidations looming, even as communities rallied behind figures like Congressman Tim Timons publicly backing Pudgy Penguins.

Despite the heavy backdrop, selective risk pockets still found traction. HYPE and ASTER led a sharp bounce as fees surged, TNSR’s run carried it toward a $240M mark, and Base’s ecosystem saw renewed attention with the upcoming JESSE token. The broader picture remains one of consolidation after one of the most mechanically driven sell-offs of the year. Liquidity is thin, uncertainty persists, and positioning remains light — but with forced sellers largely exhausted and institutions quietly scaling back in, the market enters the weekend looking far more stable than it did at the start of the week.

Market Data Points

Over the last 7 days, flows rotated toward L2s. Arbitrum led net inflows (≈$200M), with Starknet, Polygon PoS, OP Mainnet, and Solana also positive. On the outflow side, Ethereum posted the largest net withdrawals, followed by Hyperliquid, BNB Chain, edgeX, and Avalanche C-Chain.

Tokenized equities are starting to look like a real segment, not a side experiment. Q3 value climbed to around $0.4B (+115%), but it’s highly concentrated: Ondo GM controls nearly half the market (~$303M, 45.8%), with Securitize close behind (~$250M, 37.8%) and xStocks a distant third (~$82M, 12.4%). 

The holder data flips that picture: xStocks has 70K+ wallets versus just 4K for Superstate Opening Bell and 3.6K for Ondo, suggesting Ondo/Securitize have landed the larger-ticket, institutional-style flows while xStocks is winning distribution and retail mindshare. If that gap closes over time—either retail moves up the risk curve into Ondo/Securitize, or xStocks’ AUM catches up—this $0.4B base can scale quickly from both sides of the barbell.

Arbitrum One recently crossed 2B cumulative transactions, with the curve steepening through 2025—evidence that rollup throughput is scaling where users actually transact. It’s a solid validator for the L2 thesis and for Arbitrum’s share of on-chain activity. Caveat: cumulative counts can hide churn, so the next checks are sustained DAUs, fee revenue, and settlement volume back to L1. If those hold up, this isn’t just bursty growth—it’s durable usage.

Stablecoin supply is slipping alongside the risk-off tape. Total cap sits near $303.4B, down $2.12B (-0.69%) over the last week, with USDT at ~60.5% dominance. In weak market conditions, a contracting stablecoin base usually means net redemptions and less incremental “dry powder” circulating on-chain—one reason rallies fade quickly. It’s not a breakdown (levels remain historically high), but the signal is cautionary: sustained upside typically coincides with stablecoin growth, while continued shrinkage would keep liquidity tight and breadth thin.

Stablecoin activity just printed a new peak: about $1.4T in on-chain volume for October. Flows remain anchored on Ethereum and Tron (remittances, CEX/OTC settlement), with Solana carving a visibly larger slice and “other” chains climbing as rails diversify. 

The interesting bit is velocity: volumes are making highs even as total stablecoin cap has softened week-to-week, which implies faster turnover rather than fresh supply. That lines up with a volatile October—more hedging, redemptions/issuance cycles, and DEX/CEX arb moving dollars at speed. For markets, higher stablecoin throughput usually supports liquidity in perps and spot, shortens basis dislocations, and keeps risk transfer efficient even when prices chop. Sustainability from here depends on whether velocity stays elevated or we see renewed supply growth to pair with it.

Majors & Memes

Majors spent the week on the back foot, with almost every large cap extending the drawdown. BTC slid about 10.4%, while ETH underperformed slightly with a 12.6% drop. BNB and SOL weren’t far behind, down roughly 9.7% and 8.6%, and high-beta names like DOGE and ADA absorbed some of the heaviest damage at 12.1% and 18.7%. XRP also retraced sharply, off 14.3%, and TRX held up only marginally better at –6.0%. The profile across the top of the board points to a clear de-risking phase where even the most liquid names struggled to find a bid.

Below the majors, strength was narrow and highly selective. BCH was one of the only larger names to put in a green week, up around 10.5% and again behaving like a relative-strength outlier. Among midcaps, ASTER, WBT, STRK, APEPE and REAL all posted double-digit gains, ranging roughly from 9% to over 18%, with follow-through interest also visible in PI, MERL, MYX and ASI. The common thread is traders concentrating on idiosyncratic narratives and high-momentum stories rather than expressing broad market risk, a typical pattern when headline sentiment is soft but pockets of speculation remain active.

The laggard side of the ledger was much more crowded. CC fell about 30.4%, PUMP dropped 22.8%, and a long list of liquid alt L1s and narrative plays followed lower: ICP, NEAR, SUI, ONDO, MNT, ADA, APT, VET, DOT, PEPE and WLD all declined in a rough 17–22% band. In the wider crypto universe, selling pressure was even more aggressive, with SOON down 71.3% and names like CCD, SYRUP, H, ATH, TIA, MORPHO, ZBCN, VIRTUAL, ZK, IP and WAL sliding 22–36%. Combined with the weakness in majors, this points to a market still firmly in risk-off mode, where capital is being pulled from higher-beta segments and only a handful of standout stories are managing to defy the broader trend.

Smart Money Accumulation

Across both ecosystems, the tone is the same: smart money has stepped back, scaled down, and is trading far less than in previous weeks. The Solana side already showed how sharply engagement has collapsed, with wallet counts flat, balances contracting, and only tiny pockets of selective rotation surviving. What was last week a cautious but still functioning market — with names like BELIEVE, SURGE and SPARK attracting incremental flows — has now turned into broad position shrinkage and a clear preference to preserve capital rather than chase narratives. That backdrop sets the stage for the EVM picture, which mirrors the same withdrawal of risk.

In the EVM meme ecosystem, activity has thinned even further. Last week still had a handful of modest adds across CULT, BOOE, SHRUB and AP, but this week the book is mostly static, with balances drifting lower and wallet behaviour signaling that investors are simply waiting out volatility. Only a few names showed meaningful accumulation. OVPP was the standout, with balances jumping 168% to roughly $177.97K — the strongest impulse buy and one of the only scaled allocations in an otherwise frozen market. HONK posted a 99% lift but still sits at a small $24.65K line, while BOOE, AP, APU, CULT and MARIE saw mild green but nothing that signals conviction.

Trimming was minimal but symbolic of the broader mood: SHRUB was the only clear reduction at –17.75% to around $55.82K, and everything else — TRWA, WOJAK, and similar core positions — barely moved. The combination of shrinking balances, an absence of high-conviction adds, and the contrast with last week’s slightly livelier rotation all point to the same conclusion as the Solana basket: smart money is in full risk-off mode. Capital is tight, participation is low, and positioning is being kept deliberately small until majors stabilize and the macro picture stops deteriorating.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

The market feels like it’s standing on a fault line, but not in a purely negative way. Two camps have emerged: one calling this the start of a new bear, the other arguing we’re breaking the usual four-year mold and stretching into a longer, more extended cycle. 

In the very short term price action is messy, yet structurally the backdrop for crypto still leans bullish. The macro environment is quietly improving: with the U.S. government reopened, the Treasury General Account that drained liquidity during the shutdown is set to come down, and the Fed ending quantitative tightening from December 1 should tilt conditions toward easier funding over time.

Price, for now, hasn’t fully reflected that shift. BTC has slipped back below the $100K mark, a technical break that highlights cautious flows and a more selective risk tone rather than outright capitulation. Until we see a clear turn in institutional flows and genuine net spot buying, crypto sits in a tug of war between better medium-term mechanics and a short-term tape still in repair mode — which is often where the next set of opportunities is seeded. Let’s break down this week!

TLDR

• Market at a pivot: short-term ugly, but TGA drain and QT ending in December keep the medium-term crypto backdrop bullish.

• Global mood is risk-off as tech stocks sell off, Japan 10Y hits 2008 highs, and the next US jobs report skips the unemployment rate.

• BTC slipped back below $96K/$100K with $1B in liquidations, underperforming stocks and dragging sentiment back toward early-March lows.

• ETF flows are net negative (BTC/ETH outflows), but IBIT hit an ATH daily inflow and Tether added $97M BTC, showing buyers still step in.

• Institutional surveys remain constructive: most plan to increase or maintain crypto exposure, treating volatility as an entry, not an exit.

• Majors are in retrace (BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA all down), with only a few names like XRP/TRX holding up and alts showing extreme dispersion.

• Solana activity has reset, with 7D active addresses at a 12-month low (~3.3M) after the early-2025 memecoin/bot spike faded.

• DeFi keeps institutionalising via Lido/dYdX buybacks, Vitalik’s “savings” framing, and new primitives like USDsui, JPM Coin and tokenised deposit insurance.

• Payments and prediction rails are expanding through stablecoin integrations (Cash App, Visa, StanChart, SoFi, OKX) and new prediction venues (Polymarket, CME/FanDuel).

• Smart money is de-risking but not disappearing: Solana and EVM meme wallets mostly trim or sit tight, with only selective adds into names like BELIEVE, SURGE, CULT and BOOE.

Market Update

Global markets stayed firmly risk-off as a broad stock sell-off deepened on growing tech bubble fears, with Japan’s 10-year yield hitting its highest level since 2008 and adding to nerves around long-end rates. Policy signals were mixed: Trump’s push for tariff cuts framed as an affordability move landed against a backdrop of uncertainty, with the U.S. October jobs report set to skip the unemployment rate and remove one of the market’s key reference points. 

That caution has fed straight into crypto. BTC has dropped below $96K as 24-hour liquidations hit $1B, with BTC now performing the worst against stocks since 2022 and crypto sentiment sliding back toward early Feb/March lows. BTC ETFs have logged their second-highest ever daily outflow, highlighting how quickly passive and institutional money can lean away when volatility spikes, even as JP Morgan points to support around $94K rather than a full break in structure.

On the activity side, SOL is feeling the hangover from its speculative phase, with active addresses falling to a 12-month low, while ZEC has been volatile around heavy DAT activity and a rising shielded share of supply. The broader message is a market that remains willing to experiment at the edges but is clearly more defensive at the core.

Institutional product and treasury flows continued to build out in parallel with the drawdown. On the BTC side, the picture is split between heavy aggregate ETF outflows and targeted demand: IBIT recently recorded an all-time high single-day inflow, while Tether bought another $97M in BTC and is planning deeper expansion into gold as part of its broader reserve strategy. Sovereigns and central banks are edging in as well, with the Czech central bank buying BTC for a “test portfolio,” Taiwan studying a BTC reserve and Kazakhstan preparing a $1B crypto reserve.

In the structured-product space, Strategy’s basic mNAV has fallen below 1x with diluted mNAV at 1.2x even as the firm doubles its STRE offering to 715M and DATs move into focus, with Upexi the latest DAT to announce stock buybacks. At the same time, XRP is being positioned as the next institutional narrative, with Canary’s XRP ETF pulling in $58M on day one, and more XRP ETFs are set to launch with DTCC listing five spot XRP ETFs and adding a Bitwise ChainLink ETF. Meanwhile, FTX creditors are being guided toward a next payout window around December or January.

On-chain sectors and payments rails are evolving quickly despite the near-term price pressure. In DeFi, Lido has proposed enshrined buybacks and dYdX plans to channel 75% of protocol fees into DYDX buybacks, moves that line up with Vitalik’s argument that DeFi as a form of savings is finally viable and his “Trustless Manifesto” for ETH.

SUI has unveiled its USDsui stablecoin, while JP Morgan has introduced its deposit token JPM Coin and FDIC is considering tokenised deposit insurance, with FASB weighing a crypto transfer project that would further normalise digital assets in accounting standards. On the user-facing side, Cash App will enable stablecoin payments, Visa is piloting USDC payouts for creators, StanChart and DCS are partnering on a stablecoin credit card, SoFi is launching crypto trading, and OKX has rolled out in-wallet DEX trading.

Prediction markets are also in the spotlight: Polymarket has relaunched its U.S. platform in beta and is collaborating with Yahoo Finance and PrizePicks, while CME Group and FanDuel plan to launch a U.S. prediction market, signalling that on-chain and regulated venues are converging around event-driven trading.

Regulation, legal risk and corporate strategy round out the picture of a maturing but contested landscape. Europe is working toward tight crypto controls by 2027 and the UK has proposed capping stablecoin ownership at 20K GBP, while the CFTC plans leveraged trading on regulated exchanges and Atkins has unveiled a “token taxonomy” proposal to bring more clarity to asset classification. Legal friction remains visible as prosecutors seek a new trial for the MEV Brothers case after a mistrial, underlining that edge practices around value extraction remain under scrutiny.

At the same time, core crypto businesses are pushing deeper into public markets and institutional channels: Grayscale has filed for an IPO on the NYSE, Ledger is considering a New York IPO or fundraise, Bitfarms is winding down BTC mining operations as the economics of hashpower adjust. The net result is a market where prices and sentiment are under pressure, but the plumbing, rulebook and capital markets footprint for digital assets continue to advance.

Market Data Points

Rumors that Strategy offloaded ~47K BTC made the rounds this week, sparked by a dashboard read that implied a large reduction. Saylor publicly refuted it and added that they were buyers every day this week——aligned with their programmatic accumulation stance (and the fresh 487 BTC add disclosed earlier).

Survey data is still pointing in the right direction for crypto. Despite October’s drawdown, 61% of institutional respondents say they intend to increase their allocation, and another large chunk plans to hold current exposure, with only a small minority looking to cut. 

The rationale is classic institutional logic: most cite the expectation of better forward returns, portfolio diversification benefits, and the growing availability of institutional-grade, regulated products and service providers. In other words, volatility didn’t break the thesis, it gave professional investors a chance to add into an asset class they increasingly view as investable.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs have been bleeding since early October. The flow profile is mostly red with only a handful of green days. That’s a meaningful withdrawal of the marginal spot bid these vehicles provided through the summer—redemptions force selling or reduce the need to source coins, which tends to cap upside and exacerbate intraday fades.

It’s a de-risking phase more than a structural break: prior drawdowns also saw multi-week outflows that eventually flipped once volatility cooled and narratives improved. For confirmation that the tape is ready to trend again, you want to see (i) a turn to consistent +$ daily prints, (ii) breadth across multiple issuers, and (iii) a rising 5–10 day flow average rather than one-off spikes. Until then, rallies have a higher bar to clear.

Solana engagement has reset. The 7-day average of daily active addresses has slipped to ~3.3M — a 12-month low — down from >9M at the start of 2025 when memecoin issuance and bot-driven activity inflated counts. With that speculative flow fading, participation has normalized toward organic usage, which typically means softer fee revenue and thinner liquidity at the edges of the market.

Majors & Memes

Majors spent the week on the back foot, with most large caps posting clear retracements over the last 7 days. BTC fell about 7.9%, while major alts also rolled over, with ETH down 8.6%, BNB 6.8%, SOL 13%, DOGE 10.9% and ADA 12.9%. XRP held up relatively better at around -2.9%, and TRX was the lone major in the green, eking out a 0.5% gain. ETF data line up with this risk-off tone, with roughly $866.7M leaving BTC products and $259.6M flowing out of ETH funds on the latest day.

Below the top tier, rotation stayed very active into a handful of high-momentum stories. TEL led the tape with a 54.3% weekly surge, followed by SOON, AB, MET and ZANO, all posting gains north of 20%. UNI, WLFI, STRK, MORPHO, APEPE, GLM and others logged double-digit advances, and XMR also pushed higher, showing that traders are still willing to back targeted narratives even as headline assets correct.

The heaviest damage showed up in higher-beta altcoins and narrative plays. AR and FIL both dropped more than 40%, while ICP, ZEN and DASH were down around 30% or more. XPL, RAIL, SPX, JTO, H, and AI-linked tokens like FET, along with JUP, all saw declines in the mid-20s or worse as capital rotated out. Together with the negative BTC and ETH ETF flows and broad-based weakness in majors, the pattern points to a major derisking phase where investors are trimming exposure and concentrating only on a few standout winners.

Smart Money Accumulation

In current market conditions, activity has been muted, with most coins seeing position cutting. In the Solana meme ecosystem this week, smart money largely stayed cautious, keeping exposure concentrated and rotating only selectively rather than adding broad risk.

On the accumulation side, BELIEVE stood out again. Wallet count rose to 11 and balances climbed 13.04% to about $249.67K, keeping it the clearest high-conviction growth line in the basket. SURGE also attracted incremental buying, with balances up 3.52% to roughly $231.57K, while SPARK posted an 8.15% increase despite its smaller $88.76K size. 67 saw a marginal 0.63% lift to around $229.42K, suggesting it remains a steady secondary allocation.

Everywhere else the tone was defensive. KLED remains the largest dollar position at roughly $1.20M, but balances were essentially flat on the week at -0.08%, implying conviction to hold but little appetite to scale. The heavier trims hit Fartcoin (balances down 28.25% to about $579.75K) and 1 (-17.16% to $237.39K), with URANUS, DUPE and Tokabu also cut in the mid-single digits.

Smart money in the EVM meme ecosystem has been quiet for weeks now, and this past week kept that pattern intact. Activity stayed thin, volumes were low, and most positions saw only small adjustments as participants continued to wait out weaker majors and negative ETF flows.

On the risk-on side, CULT and BOOE were the clearest standouts. CULT balances climbed 28.02% to about $331.16K, while BOOE posted the biggest percentage increase, up 34.3% to roughly $68.09K. Smaller but still notable adds went into SHRUB and AP, with balances up 9.68% and 8.54% respectively, though both remain sub-$80K allocations. These look more like test probes than full-size conviction trades, but they show there is still some willingness to add selective beta.

Everywhere else the book looks like it’s on pause. Core holdings such as BITCOIN, APU, Mog and PEPE were essentially flat on the week, with near-zero changes despite PEPE still sitting at around $25.82M. Larger lines like TRWA (about $855K) and SPX (~$568.34K) edged lower, with balances down 6.14% and 1.59%, pointing to gentle de-risking rather than aggressive unwinds. Taken together, the muted flows and tight positioning confirm EVM smart money is still in wait-and-see mode, nudging into a few speculative names while keeping overall risk firmly capped.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

It looks like the bull phase is postponed rather than cancelled. BTC defended $98K–$100K more than once, which tells us there is real spot demand, but the market hasn’t reclaimed the levels that would confirm a full repair. Liquidity frictions from the shutdown/TGA setup, plus ongoing ETF outflows, are still in the way. For now this is a market stabilising below resistance, not breaking out. Let’s unpack what tightened conditions, what has improved, and what still needs to turn.

TLDR

• BTC defended $98K–1$00K but is still below $105K–$110K repair zone.

• Drop was liquidity-driven (TGA high, shutdown, month-end, bill issuance).

• Liquidity frictions can repeat until QT stops and TGA is drawn down.

• ETFs still seeing outflows.

• On-chain looks like late-stage selloff: ~30% BTC at loss, big wallets bought ~30K BTC.

• STRK led inflows; ARB, edgeX, WORLD, BASE followed; ETH, HYPE, BNB Chain saw outflows.

• ETH stablecoin volume hit ~$2.82T in October, stables still the main rail.

• DEX volume jumped to ~$613.3B, on-chain share rose toward 20%.

• Liquidity base is large but not growing fast, so rallies fade.

Market Update

Today will zone in on the state of the market, because the last leg lower in BTC was not the result of a single bearish crypto event but of several liquidity frictions hitting at once, and price is still trading below the levels that would confirm a turn.

BTC is currently stabilising around $103K. That comes after price was pushed below $100K on two separate occasions and bought back both times. The market has therefore identified $98K–$100K as the first area where real spot demand is willing to act. That is an important observation, because the break under six figures was not ignored. It was defended. Even so, the recovery has stopped well before any of the important trend references.

On the daily view BTC remains below all of its key moving levels. The 9 EMA sits around $105K. The 21 EMA is clustered near $107.8K. The 200-day moving average is up near $110K, and the 50-day is higher again, close to $112K. Momentum has started to flatten, with RSI lifting off the high 30s and MACD easing from its lows, but there has not been an actual momentum reversal. In market language, this is early stabilisation beneath trend, not the start of a new leg higher.

The reason for the sharp break is best explained by the liquidity sequence that macro expert Tomas outlined. The Treasury General Account moved well above its target level. That happened because the government shutdown reduced federal spending while tax and tariff receipts continued. Funds that end up in the TGA do not circulate through the banking system. They sit at the Federal Reserve. That is a direct drain on reserves.

At the same time, the Treasury was issuing a meaningful amount of short-dated bills. The proceeds from those auctions also landed in the TGA. So there was less government spending than usual and more cash than usual being parked at the Fed. Then month end arrived. 

Banks did the typical window dressing, moving cash into Fed facilities to improve regulatory snapshots. On top of those flows, one or more banks accessed the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility for around $50B, which is exactly what appears when reserves are tight for a day. None of these items is large enough on its own to cause a breakdown in BTC. But when all of them arrive in the same week, the result is a short period of scarce dollars.

BTC was already leaning on the $109K–$110K shelf at that point. ETF flows had been negative for six days. On-chain activity from smaller holders had slowed. In that situation the market chose the path of least resistance. It ran the level, flushed under $100K, and went to see where the real bid was. It found that bid in the $98K–$100K pocket. Also take note that ETF flows continue to remain negative.

The end of the government shutdown matters here. Once spending resumes, the TGA can begin to move lower toward its intended level. When the TGA falls, those balances leave the Fed and go back into the system, easing the reserve pressure that helped push BTC through support.

That sits alongside the Federal Reserve’s announced plan to stop quantitative tightening in December, which will remove an ongoing source of downward pressure on reserves. Taken together, the factors that created the short, sharp tightness are already in the process of fading.

On-chain and flow data are consistent with a late-stage selloff rather than the start of a new trend lower. Roughly 30% of BTC supply is now held at a loss, which is the highest reading since 2024. Sentiment measures such as the fear and greed index are in extreme fear. CryptoQuant’s bull score even printed 0, a level normally associated with capitulation phases. Long-term holders sold more than 400K BTC over the past month, which is meaningful distribution, but that supply did not fall into a vacuum.

Meanwhile, large wallets accumulated about 30K BTC this week, around $3B in nominal terms, That is the exact pattern that often appears near lows: older coins come out, stronger balance sheets and passive products take the other side.

Even with those positives, the forward structure is still very clear. The $98K–$100K area is now the defended floor. As long as that band holds on retests, the market can keep building a base. The next step upward is $105K–$108K, where the short-term moving averages are clustered. That zone is where the market will show whether this is just a reaction off support or the start of actual repair. The genuine confirmation level remains $109K–$110K, where the 200-day sits and where the initial break happened. Only above that band can the decline be called fully repaired. Everything below it is still consolidation after a liquidity shock.

Tomas noted that if the TGA stays elevated, the same kind of funding tightness can show up again at end-November and again at quarter end, because banks will do month-end window dressing and Treasury issuance is still heavy. With the shutdown still ongoing, government spending is not flowing out at the normal pace, so balances keep piling in the TGA instead of in the banking system. That keeps reserves tighter than they should be and leaves BTC exposed to short, sudden liquidity squeezes until two things happen: the Fed actually halts QT in December and the TGA is drawn back down.

This sits alongside Ray Dalio’s point. The Fed is presenting the stop to balance-sheet runoff as a technical step, but if it happens while policy rates are coming down, deficits are still large and asset prices are still high, it behaves like easing into strength. In that setup, liquidity tends to move into financial assets first, which is a constructive backdrop for BTC once the chart is repaired.

What is missing right now is support from ETFs. If spot products are still posting outflows, then the handover from weak holders to strong holders is not complete and spot has to do more of the work. That makes the technical levels even more important.

So the current picture is:

• BTC defended $98K–$100K more than once

• Liquidity frictions from the shutdown and high TGA balances are still present

• ETFs are not yet providing consistent buy-side support
  Confirmation still starts above $105K–$108K and is only complete once BTC is back over $109K–$110K

Until those conditions are met, this remains a market stabilising below resistance after a liquidity-driven break.

Market Data Points

Flows this week have been lopsided. Over the last 7 days, Starknet actually led with the largest net inflows, which is a bit unexpected given how crowded the L2 field is right now. It was followed by Arbitrum, edgeX, WorldChain and Base. On the other side, Ethereum saw the heaviest net outflows, with additional noticeable red on Hyperliquid and BNB Chain.

Ethereum just had its biggest month ever for stablecoin activity. Onchain volume in October jumped to about $2.82T, a 45% rise from September’s high, as traders parked in stables to farm yield and stay liquid while the broader market cooled. USDC was the main rail (~$1.62T), with USDT close behind (~$896B), showing that most flow is still happening in the two majors. It’s a sign that even in a pullback, stablecoins are the infrastructure everyone touches.

Decentralized exchanges saw a major pickup in activity in October, with trading volume rising to about $613.3B from roughly $500B in September as traders repositioned during the market selloff. Uniswap was the busiest venue at around $170.9B, followed by PancakeSwap at about $101.9B, showing broad on-chain participation across ecosystems. Centralized exchanges were active too, with volume reaching roughly $2.17T, but DEXs still managed to lift their share to nearly 20%, signaling that more flow is migrating on-chain when volatility hits.

As pointed out by Wintermute in a recent post, crypto’s liquidity base is large but no longer accelerating. Stablecoins, ETFs and DATs have expanded from about $180B to roughly $560B since early 2024, but the latest increments are clearly smaller. That signals we’re in an internal-rotation phase rather than a fresh-inflow phase, which is why rallies fade quickly, leadership keeps narrowing, and it’s getting harder for the market to push higher without a new wave of capital.

Majors & Memes

Majors stayed under pressure this week, extending the correction that began in late October. BTC fell roughly 7% to hover near $102K, retracing most of its early-month gains as traders shifted to the sidelines amid cautious sentiment. ETH lagged further, down more than 11%, reflecting softer appetite for risk and lighter liquidity across DeFi-linked assets. BNB, XRP, and SOL each shed roughly 8–14%, with SOL seeing the steepest losses as capital rotated away from high-beta L1s. 

In contrast, select mid-caps and infra plays broke higher. ICP and FIL were the clear standouts, up over 100% on the week as traders chased decentralized compute/storage narratives. NEAR, ZK and AR followed with strong double-digit gains, helped by rotation into AI and L2-related sectors.

The outlier on the large-cap side was ZEC, which has been building momentum for several weeks — now up 30% on the week and over 200% on the month. The move reflects renewed attention to privacy coins and on-chain anonymity, with ZEC reclaiming a spot among the top performers despite broad market softness. On the weaker side, TAO led declines, down more than 25% after a volatile run-up, while ZEN, HUM, and AXY also posted >20% losses. 

Overall tone is still corrective: traders are trimming risk, rotating defensively, and waiting for a clean catalyst to tell them whether this leg lower is done.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money flows in the SOL ecosystem this week were concentrated in a handful of names. BELIEVE saw the strongest accumulation: wallet balances increased by roughly 330% and total holdings moved to just under $786K, making it the highest-conviction add in the set. PAYAI (+247%) and UMBRA (~60%) also recorded sharp increases in balances from a smaller base, which tells us new wallets were willing to size into newer exposure rather than only scaling existing bags. Tokabu, URANUS, and STARTUP showed moderate growth (single- to mid-teens %), consistent with maintaining them as active positions but not prioritising them for size this week.

On the trimming side, reductions were controlled. SPARK was cut the most (about -21% of balances), while DUPE and KLED were reduced slightly even though KLED still holds one of the larger dollar allocations (~$1.8M).

Smart money positioning on EVM names this week was mostly static, with only a couple of lines showing meaningful adjustment. That usually signals a hold-and-monitor stance rather than active risk deployment.

CULT, BITCOIN, PEPE, SHRUB, and TRWA all sat at 0% 7D change, keeping existing allocations in place. That’s notable for TRWA in particular, since it remains one of the larger dollar balances (~$910K) and was left untouched, suggesting it’s still a core hold. SPX also barely moved (basically flat) while staying near $572K.

The only clear add was OVPP, which saw the largest increase on the page (+165.6%) to about $303K — effectively the one name smart money was willing to size up on EVM this week. AP was lifted slightly (+1.5%), more of a tidy-up than a fresh push.

Reductions were selective: APU was trimmed about -4%, and Mog was cut harder at around -32%, indicating de-emphasis on that line. Overall, the pattern is low-velocity: existing positions were maintained, one emerging name (OVPP) was funded, and weaker lines were shaved, consistent with a cautious EVM tape.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon!

It’s been another grind lower — volatility muted, sentiment in the gutter, and traders questioning why they still check charts every five minutes. But dull and directionless isn’t a permanent state. The macro backdrop is slowly tilting toward easier policy, even if the market refuses to believe it yet. QT wraps up December 1, the benchmark rate edges down to 3.75–4.00, and a 10–2 vote in favor of easing suggests more support is coming once the Fed stops pretending it’s undecided.

For now, patience is painful — but this kind of exhaustion rarely lasts. Let’s break down the week.

TLDR

• Fed cut 25 bps, QT ends Dec 1; split FOMC kept tone hawkish and crypto dipped.

• BoJ held, hinted hike; China PMIs hit 6-month low; U.S. eyed tariff cuts and a one-year Xi–Trump deal.

• Stocks hit ATH as Nvidia neared $5T; Apple touched $4T then pulled back; Amazon/Alphabet up, Meta –12%.

• BTC slid with long-term holders selling 62K BTC; France reportedly weighing a 2% supply buy.

• ETH: Fusaka final testnet; upgrade due Dec 3; $6M ICO wallet moved; BitMine +$166M; $200M ETH to Linea staking planned.

• SOL: huge day-1 ETF volumes; Bitwise did $70M+ on day 2; Fidelity reportedly close to a SOL ETF.

• Stablecoins: Visa added four; Western Union filed WUUSD and plans a SOL stablecoin; Circle tested Arc; Tether teed up USAT for Dec 2025; Indonesia plans a digital rupiah.

• Tokenization/access: Securitize SPAC + BNY Mellon fund; Ondo to BNB Chain; Nordea BTC-linked ETPs; Coinbase revenue +54%; Cryptocom seeks OCC charter; Revolut fee-free USD swaps; Rumble BTC tipping.

• Market structure: BNB Chain > Tron in active stablecoin users; stablecoin volume +43% YTD near $9T; fees skew to Hyperliquid (~40%) and BNB (>20%) as SOL frenzy cools.

Market Update

Macro and equities set a jittery backdrop this week. The Fed cut 25 bps and will end QT on December 1, but a divided FOMC on a December move left the tone hawkish, and crypto dumped on the nuance. Japan’s BoJ left rates unchanged while signaling a hike soon, China’s manufacturing fell to a six-month low, and Washington paired tariff reductions with talk of a one-year trade understanding between Xi and Trump.

Stocks still notched another ATH as Nvidia ripped — briefly touching a $5T handle in overnight trade — even as leadership stayed uneven: Amazon rallied on AI-driven cloud growth, Alphabet surged on earnings, Apple hit $4T before a pullback, and Meta slid 12% on heavier AI spend. The AI liquidity narrative remained loud with an OpenAI IPO floated at a $1T valuation, keeping risk appetite headline-sensitive into month-end.

Majors traded the policy read-through and positioning more than the print. BTC’s dip coincided with long-term holders selling 62K BTC, even as France was floated as considering accumulation equal to 2% of BTC supply. Ethereum’s path is execution and staking: the Fusaka upgrade is on final testnet and scheduled for December 3; an ICO-era wallet moved $6M ETH after eight years; BitMine kept buying with a $166M add; and Sharplink plans to stake $200M ETH on Linea. Solana’s institutional on-ramp broadened quickly with huge day-one SOL ETF volumes, Bitwise clearing $70M+ on day two, and reports that Fidelity is close on its own product.

Institutional rails and tokenisation kept pressing forward despite cautious risk. Visa added support for four stablecoins, Western Union filed a WUUSD trademark alongside its Solana plan, Circle began testing Arc, Tether outlined a USAT launch for December 2025, and Indonesia set out a digital-rupiah stablecoin. Nordea will offer BTC-linked synthetic ETPs, Coinbase printed a 54% revenue jump, Cryptocom is seeking an OCC federal bank charter, and Core Scientific shareholders blocked the $9B CoreWeave deal. 

Securitize moved to go public via a $1.25B SPAC and, with BNY Mellon, launched a tokenised fund; Ondo expanded tokenised securities to BNB Chain; the TRUMP issuer agreed to buy Republic; and Rumble prepared BTC tipping as Revolut rolled out USD stablecoin swaps with no fees. Ant Group registered crypto trademarks, Jamie Dimon conceded “crypto is real,” and SBF resurfaced to claim FTX was never insolvent.

Sector activity stayed busy under the hood. Base’s token was flagged by JP Morgan as potentially worth $34B, the x402 payments narrative for AI agents gathered steam, and TAO led AI coins with a halving just over 40 days out. MegaETH’s token sale was oversubscribed by 28x; Monad revealed user allocations of MON; MetaMask launched Season 1 of rewards; World Liberty prepared an 8.4M WLFI airdrop, and Stable advanced to Phase 2 of its pre-deposit campaign. Prediction and markets infrastructure widened: Polymarket may return to the U.S. in November, Truth Social launched prediction markets, Kalshi added SUI deposits, and dYdX mapped a U.S. entry by end-2025.

Net-net: the post-FOMC tone left sentiment in the gutter and crypto leaning lower, but the pipeline of ETFs, stablecoin rails, tokenised assets, and corporate actions suggests adoption — not macro alone — will dictate the next sustained leg when risk finds its footing.

Market Data Points

Stablecoin activity is shifting fast. BNB Chain has now overtaken Tron as the leading network by active stablecoin users over the past two quarters. Meanwhile, quarterly stablecoin-adjusted volume is up roughly 43% year-to-date, closing in on $9T. Ethereum remains the liquidity backbone, driving nearly half of that total flow.

Hyperliquid and BNB Chain are now dominating L1 fee capture — a sharp reversal from earlier in the year when Solana controlled over half of all major L1 fees. As Solana’s memecoin frenzy faded after the TRUMP token peak, traders chased higher-yield activity where derivatives drive fee growth. 

Hyperliquid has surged to over 40% of fees, with BNB Chain above 20% thanks to its exchange-integrated funnel. Unless Solana finds another breakout native app or a renewed speculative wave, fee share looks set to remain decisively skewed toward derivatives-heavy ecosystems.

Prediction markets are increasingly coalescing around two major hubs — Polymarket and Kalshi.Through most of 2024, Polymarket completely dominated the field, controlling nearly all weekly trading volume as it became the go-to venue for retail and crypto-native speculation. But since the start of 2025, Kalshi has quietly and consistently closed the gap. By October, it’s posting its strongest market share yet, a sign that regulated prediction trading is finally finding its footing in the U.S.

What’s driving this change is a clear bifurcation of user bases. Polymarket still thrives on cultural and political narratives that play well with a crypto audience — fast-moving, meme-driven, and global. Kalshi, on the other hand, benefits from a growing wave of institutional and U.S.-based traders seeking compliant exposure to event risk, particularly around macro data, elections, and policy outcomes.

Ethena and Hyperliquid have been two of the most closely watched DeFi scale-ups this year, each proving there’s real demand for alternative collateral models and on-chain derivatives infrastructure. That’s why the recent cooling in October is notable. Ethena’s TVL has come off its highs, sliding back toward the $10B area after an exceptionally strong run fueled by robust fee generation and a clear product-market fit. Hyperliquid, meanwhile, also saw a moderation in inflows following months of consistent growth.

This isn’t an unwind tied to structural weakness — it’s positioning and capital rotation after an overheated period. Both ecosystems still maintain deep liquidity, healthy usage, and expanding revenue foundations. In other words: these are platforms that have already earned institutional attention, and pullbacks of this size now carry informational weight. The question over the coming weeks is whether fresher, stickier capital begins to re-enter as broader market conditions stabilize.

Majors & Memes

Majors traded heavy this week as uncertainty crept back into the market. BTC and ETH both edged lower over the past seven days, unable to sustain early strength as sentiment cooled. Powell’s message that future rate cuts are not assured, has left markets stuck in a wait-and-see phase. With liquidity drivers unclear, BTC hovered near $109K and ETH slipped slightly, while BNB and SOL also pulled back in a controlled manner. DOGE and TRX followed the risk-off tone, and ADA weakened further as rotation away from lower-beta majors persisted.

Performance strength came almost entirely from selective narratives. Figure Heloc led with a triple-digit surge, while ZEC, Trump, TAO, Pi Network, and HBAR all posted notable upside as capital chased niche momentum rather than broad market direction. These gains reflect rotation — not renewed bull conviction.

Declines were concentrated in recent high-beta winners and ecosystem bets. Ethena, Story Protocol, Gate, OKB, Mantle, and VeChain saw sharp retracement, while APEPE, SNX, and Plasma also extended losses. The pattern points to positioning cleanup: profit-taking, leverage reduction, and a pause on speculative exposure while macro signals remain muddled.

In short, crypto is navigating limbo — not bearish enough for capitulation, not bullish enough for a run. Spot prices are consolidating, winners are isolated, and traders are waiting for a decisive cue from macro before expanding risk again.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money activity in the Solana meme ecosystem this week showed clear rotation back into risk, but in a highly selective manner. Wallets pressed into a few high-momentum names while trimming older positions that have stalled.

BELIEVE was the runaway standout — wallet counts climbed to 14 and balances exploded over +300% to roughly $786K, making it the strongest conviction add across the sector. Tokabu also flipped back into favor with double-digit balance growth and a healthy increase in wallet positioning, signaling renewed appetite for familiar plays. UMBRA saw one of the sharpest percentage gains, up nearly +60%, even if from a smaller base — a classic speculative rotation when confidence begins to return. URANUS and Fartcoin posted steady inflows as well, reinforcing their roles as liquid mid-tier conviction holds.

On the de-risking side, activity was more controlled than last week but still visible. SPARK took the hardest trim — balances fell over -20%, reflecting fading momentum in what was previously a top allocation. DUPE also slid modestly, while KLED eased slightly despite still being one of the larger dollar positions in the group. These reductions point to profit-taking and rotation rather than any broad collapse in confidence.

Bottom line: Solana smart money isn’t going all-in — but it is redeploying into winners with clearer momentum. BELIEVE has quickly become the primary risk-on vehicle, with secondary flows chasing emerging heat in names like UMBRA. Weak hands are being cut, strong narratives are being reinforced — classic positioning ahead of a potential market recovery despite current sentiment and conditions.

Smart money positioning across the EVM ecosystem this week was extremely muted — wallets largely held their ground, signaling caution and a wait-and-see stance rather than any meaningful rotation.

Most major positions — PEPE (~$25.8M), CULT (~$338K), BITCOIN (~$425K), SHRUB, TRWA — saw no changes at all. Allocations remain firmly intact, suggesting conviction hasn’t been shaken, but there’s also no appetite to scale higher until market direction becomes clearer.

Only a couple of names registered movement, and even those were limited. OVPP drew a small bump in exposure, enough to be noticeable but not enough to call it a new trend. Meanwhile, APU saw light trimming and Mog took the only real hit with a sharper reduction.

Bottom line: smart money on EVM memes is staying flat, protecting its biggest bets without extending risk. Traders aren’t fleeing the sector — they’re simply sitting tight, waiting for the next strong signal before redeploying capital.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon,

Markets are getting spicy— CPI cooled, gold melted, and futures whipsawed like it’s 2021 déjà vu. BTC flexed back to 60% dominance while ETH stole headlines with a staked ETF filing and big on-chain moves. SOL kept the vibe alive with its own ETF approval, and even Up Only is back from the dead — peak bull nostalgia.

Let’s break it down.

TLDR

• Futures swung on trade headlines and soft CPI; gold plunged 5%, its biggest drop in years.

• U.S. shutdown entered week four as Trump–Xi talks set for next week.

• BTC dominance hit 60%; miner wallet with 4K BTC reactivated.

• ETH saw $654M moved, VanEck filed staked-ETH ETF, JPMorgan okayed BTC/ETH collateral.

• SOL gained traction with HK’s first SOL ETF, Gemini credit card, and new Perps DEX plans.

• Institutional flow strong: BlackRock courting BTC whales, T. Rowe Price and 150+ ETF filings pending.

• Aave loans hit $25B; DeFi profits led by derivatives and launchpads.

• L2s led inflows as capital rotated from ETH and BNB.

• MVRV near 1.9 signals distribution; BTC likely range-bound.

• Regulators advance 2025 framework; Revolut gains MiCA license, Kadena shuts down.

Market Update

Futures whipsawed on the week: initially lower on another round of trade-war headlines, then higher after CPI printed cooler than expected. That eased rate fears but didn’t clear the fog, with the U.S. entering a fourth week of government shutdown even as Trump and Xi were slated to meet in Asia next Thursday.

Safe-haven dynamics flipped as gold sank 5% in its biggest daily drop in years. Meanwhile, tech risk took on a different hue after Google claimed a quantum breakthrough and Washington opened talks to take stakes in quantum-computing firms, a reminder that strategic tech and policy are moving in tandem and can jolt cross-asset positioning.

Crypto traded with a defensive bid under the surface as BTC dominance pushed to 60%, aided by a 4k-BTC miner wallet breaking 14-year dormancy that kept supply narratives front-of-mind. In majors, ETH flow optics were busy: the Ethereum Foundation moved $654M in ETH and VanEck filed for the first staked-ETH ETF, while Fed Governor Waller signaled a shift toward embracing crypto and JPMorgan said it would allow BTC and ETH as collateral—both supportive for institutional onboarding.

SOL headlines skewed structurally constructive even as the ecosystem refocused, with Hong Kong approving the first SOL ETF, the co-founder Toly designing a Perps DEX, Gemini launching a SOL credit card, and Solana ending support for the Saga phone. BNB caught a clean impulse after Trump pardoned CZ, lifting the token 4%, and breadth improved as Robinhood officially listed BNB alongside new alt listings like HYPE.

Institutional and balance-sheet activity accelerated. BlackRock sought to pull BTC whales into its ETFs; T. Rowe Price filed for its first crypto ETF and separately for an actively managed product; JPMorgan’s collateral move and over 150 crypto ETF filings awaiting review added to the queue. Galaxy reported a record quarter with profits up 1500%, FalconX acquired 21Shares, Fireblocks bought authentication startup Dynamic, and Ledger unveiled a next-gen Nano with a new wallet app, all pointing to a deeper infra stack. 

On the venture and strategy side, Hayes is raising $250M for a new PE fund, while Hyperliquid Strategies targeted a $1B raise to buy HYPE. Stripe’s Tempo raised $500M at a $5B valuation and hired away Dankrad from the ETH Foundation; Revolut secured a MiCA license and hinted at a stablecoin; Coinbase made moves by buying Cobie’s Echo for $375M and Up Only NFT for $25M.

DeFi sectors were equally active. Aave’s outstanding loans hit $25B with plans to integrate Maple, the DAO proposed a $50M annual token buyback, and the team acquired Stable Finance’s developers. Covalent launched a Strategic Reserve; Solmate announced a validator center with aggressive M&A; Aster DEX rolled out Rocket Launch.

Meanwhile, ZEC spiked through $300 before fading and still led altcoin chatter; HYPE outperformed after a co-founder appearance on TBPN and a prospective bid from Hyperliquid Strategies. Thematic flows were loud: TIBIRR rose to $380M near ATH, LMTS stealth-launched a prediction-market token at $300M, and METEORA debuted at $500M but underwhelmed some—complicated further by claims the top airdrop recipient was the TRUMP team and accusations that its founder led MELANIA and LIBRA. Sports and prediction rails converged as DraftKings acquired Railbird, the NHL struck a deal with Kalshi, Kalshi fielded investment offers at $10B+, and Jupiter launched prediction markets with Kalshi.

Policy and corporate signals rounded out the tape. The SEC and CFTC aimed to finalize a crypto framework by end-2025 as Democrats met with crypto executives on a legislative push; Asian exchanges tightened scrutiny on DATs even as Evernorth’s SPAC planned to be a $1B XRP DAT. Groups pressed Trump to defend the CFPB’s banking rule, while JPMorgan’s collateral greenlight—and Revolut’s MiCA license—showed banks and fintech inching toward standardized engagement. Lastly, Kadena wound down operations with KDA dropping 60% on the news.

Market Data Points

Over the last seven days, Arbitrum dominated with the strongest net inflows across all chains, comfortably leading Base, Polygon, and Ink, which also posted solid positive flows. The top of the chart shows clear rotation toward L2 ecosystems, suggesting that liquidity is chasing cheaper execution and active DeFi environments rather than sitting idle on mainnet. Further down, Solana, Starknet, and OP Mainnet continued to attract moderate inflows, showing steady cross-chain engagement.

On the outflow side, Ethereum saw the largest capital drain, followed by Hyperliquid, Berachain, and BNB Chain — a sign of short-term capital rotation rather than structural weakness. Overall, the trend points to a risk-on shift into L2s and smaller chains, with Ethereum once again serving as the main liquidity source for the rotation.

The MVRV ratio is sitting near 1.9, meaning the average holder’s coins are worth almost twice what they paid. Historically, readings above 2.0 have marked overheated phases where profit-taking intensifies and upside momentum starts to fade. You can see that pattern repeating — each time MVRV spiked above 2.2, price followed with a local peak, then cooled as profits were realized.

The current divergence, with price still near all-time highs while MVRV trends lower, suggests distribution rather than accumulation — holders are in profit, but conviction is thinning. Until this ratio resets closer to the 1.4–1.6 zone (where past bottoms formed), BTC may stay range-bound or face corrective pressure before another strong impulsive leg higher.

October saw Aave’s TVL hit its highest level ever, briefly topping $69B before cooling slightly. The surge through early to mid-October was explosive — a sharp jump that pushed the protocol well past its previous cycle highs from 2021–22. 

Unlike those earlier peaks that were mostly incentive-driven, this latest climb reflects a broader return of liquidity and leverage demand across DeFi. Even with the small pullback since the highs, Aave remains at record territory, cementing its spot as the dominant lending protocol in the market right now.

Despite ETH’s price lagging behind BTC and SOL through Q3 and into October, network growth has quietly accelerated. The number of new Ethereum addresses has been trending higher all year, and even with periodic pullbacks, the 7-day moving average remains firmly elevated — consistently holding above 120K new addresses per day and recently brushing up near 150K.

That steady climb suggests organic user growth and developer activity are expanding beneath the surface, even as market narratives rotate elsewhere. This kind of divergence — weak price action but rising on-chain participation — often appears near late-stage consolidation phases, when speculative attention is low but long-term network fundamentals are strengthening.

Leaving out the stablecoin giants and Tron, the data makes it clear where the real money has been flowing this month — derivatives and launchpads.

Hyperliquid leads the pack with over $101M in 30-day revenue, followed closely by edgeX ($40.5M) and Jupiter ($26M). Together, these trading protocols highlight the surge in on-chain leverage and perpetual activity as traders rotate capital away from majors into high-beta assets. Derivatives remain the most profitable vertical in DeFi, comfortably outpacing lending, staking, and DEX sectors.

Meanwhile, Pump ($36M) and four.meme ($39M) show that launchpads are still raking in serious fees. Below that tier, Axiom Pro and Aerodrome represent steady performers in trading and DEX activity, while Aave ($13M), Lido ($8.8M), and Base ($7.8M) round out the list — stable but far less explosive.

Overall, the past 30 days confirm that speculative trading products — both perpetuals and launchpads — remain the dominant profit engines of this market cycle thus far.

Majors & Memes

Majors closed the week in better shape as the softer U.S. CPI print reignited some optimism across risk assets. BTC led the recovery, grinding higher through the week as flows stabilized after recent volatility. The move wasn’t explosive but steady — a sign of improving confidence rather than speculation. 

ETH followed with moderate gains, maintaining structure and benefiting from renewed inflows into blue-chip DeFi. BNB recovered slightly after last week’s drop, while SOL continued to show leadership among L1s, supported by consistent volume and network traction. XRP stood out as the best-performing large cap, posting a strong rebound that outpaced peers. ADA, DOGE, and TRX were more subdued, trading mixed but holding above recent support levels. Overall, majors reacted constructively to the macro tone, showing the first signs of stabilization after a choppy October stretch.

Beyond the top names, capital rotated selectively into narrative-driven sectors. AI and infrastructure plays were clear winners, with COAI extending its rally as one of the week’s top performers. JUP, ZEC, and PUMP also advanced, while STORY, BCH, and ENA gained steady traction on improved sentiment. Mid-cap strength was broad but measured, pointing to a more balanced market where traders are re-entering but still avoiding overextension.

The laggards were mostly recent high-flyers giving back gains. MNT, CAKE, and HYPE all slipped slightly, joined by smaller pullbacks in BNB and HTX, as profit-taking set in. The broader picture, though, remains constructive — volatility cooled, ETF outflows steadied, and macro relief gave traders room to re-risk modestly. Momentum is rebuilding, but participation is still cautious, suggesting the market is trying to base before any sustained breakout phase.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money accumulation in the Solana ecosystem this week skewed selective, with adds concentrated at the top and breadth fading. KLED stayed the anchor holding, nudging higher on the week and carrying the largest balance (~$1.88M) across the most wallets on the list, while URANUS printed the clearest build—double-digit 7D growth and a balance above $1.26M—signaling fresh rotation into a smaller set of higher-conviction names. Fartcoin and Tokabu also showed modest net adds, more consistent with topping up than aggressive new entries.

Cuts were broader and heavier in the mid tier. LAUNCHCOIN and SPARK saw sharp weekly reductions, with LAUNCHCOIN posting the steepest drawdown. 1, DEVELOPER, UMBRA, and PUMP were trimmed as well, pointing to a continued narrowing of exposure rather than full exits.

Net-net, capital is concentrating into a few liquid positions while the tail is being reduced—classic risk-aware posture after recent volatility. Wallet counts clustered in the top names, dollar balances reinforced that concentration, and the overall pattern still reads as cautious accumulation rather than a risk-on chase.

Smart money accumulation across the EVM ecosystem this week was largely steady, showing little net rotation but a few quiet shifts in positioning. Most top-held names like CULT, BITCOIN, and SPX held flat on both wallet count and dollar balance, suggesting a pause in active allocation after recent choppy flows. SPX remains the largest tracked balance at around $570K, with BITCOIN and CULT close behind — a sign that capital is sitting tight rather than rotating out.

The standout move came from APU, which posted a clear rise in wallet allocations and total holdings, showing some renewed speculative accumulation. CLANKER entered the list this week with roughly $220K in balances, indicating a small but fresh inflow of capital. On the other end, MOG and TRWA saw mild trimming, while Block, SHRUB, and PEPE were unchanged.

Overall, the tone is neutral — quiet accumulation at the edges, stable holdings at the core, and a general preference for maintaining existing exposure until stronger directional signals emerge.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon

What a week. The momentum from early October got crushed after last week’s brutal liquidation event, leaving markets limping into the weekend. What looked like the start of a real Uptober run quickly turned defensive as fear took over. Gold’s ripping, stocks are shaky, and crypto’s struggling to find its footing. Let’s break it down.

TLDR

• Markets turned defensive again as regional bank stress hit stocks and risk sentiment weakened further.

• Fed Chair Powell hinted QT could end soon, sparking speculation of a liquidity turn.

• BTC ETFs saw the largest outflows since August, pushing traders to hedge below $100K.

• SOL pulled back with the broader market but remains one of the stronger majors, supported by accelerating ETF progress and steady treasury demand.

• BNB’s week was volatile amid Binance refund headlines and ecosystem airdrops. 

• Funding rates collapsed across majors, signaling a deep leverage unwind in progress.

• Morpho crossed $11.9B TVL, quietly cementing its place as a DeFi heavyweight.

• Memecoins bled further as capital rotated into AI-linked and blue-chip projects.

Market Update

Markets closed the week on the back foot, with sentiment turning uneasy across both equities and crypto after what initially looked like a potential rebound from last week’s major liquidation event. Regional-bank loan stress hit U.S. stocks and dragged risk assets lower, even as gold pushed into new all-time highs and Treasury yields fell to their lowest since April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell added a new twist, signaling that quantitative tightening may be nearing its end as money markets start to feel the strain—a potentially bullish shift for liquidity, though the timing of any return to easing remains uncertain.

Futures found some footing after Trump hinted that China tariffs would be lifted, but overall risk appetite stayed muted. In crypto, that caution turned to fear: spot BTC ETFs saw their largest outflows since August, and Polymarket odds crossed above 50% for BTC to fall below $100K, signaling that traders are actively hedging against a deeper pullback.

BTC’s weakness has started to test confidence across the majors. The U.S. government moved another $75M in BTC this week, adding to the pressure, even though total state holdings remain around $36B after the DoJ seizures. Some desks are still accumulating—Strategy, as usual, announced a $27M BTC purchase during the dip—but most flows remain defensive.

ETH held up slightly better, supported by institutional buying signals like Sharplink’s $77M allocation and incoming custody rails from Citi and Amundi. SOL continues to lead the L1 pack, buoyed by CME’s new SOL and XRP options, growing ETF speculation, and direct treasury demand—Solmate reportedly bought $50M from the foundation and DFDV added another $16M. BNB’s week was more chaotic: the token popped after an airdrop campaign, but headlines around Binance’s $400M user refund plan and listing-cost criticism offset much of the goodwill.

Behind the price action, the institutional buildout hasn’t slowed. BlackRock plans to roll out its own tokenisation stack and a GENIUS-compliant money market fund, with Larry Fink again drawing parallels between crypto and gold. S&P’s stablecoin ratings via Chainlink and ODDO’s euro-backed EUROD launch mark another step toward on-chain capital markets. 

Schwab’s plan to offer crypto trading by mid-2026 highlights how traditional finance continues to deepen its integration with digital assets, even as short-term liquidity remains thin. Further treasury and corporate activity echoed the same trend—Antalpha bought $134M in XAUT, Ripple acquired GTreasury for $1B while leading another $1B XRP fundraise, and Anchorage, Figure, and Sky all advanced new infrastructure and tokenisation initiatives.

DeFi and consumer rails stayed active despite the correction. Uniswap’s web app now supports Solana, OpenSea’s second wave went live, and Magic Eden is preparing “pack drops.” MetaMask’s collaboration with Polymarket—just as the latter opens stock-price betting—shows how prediction markets and retail flow are beginning to merge.

Regulation stayed busy too: Japan is moving to ban insider trading in crypto, France expanded AML checks, and the U.S. advanced a bill to enshrine Trump’s executive order on 401(k) crypto exposure. Corporate tokenisation threads continued with Eric Trump and WLFI planning a real-estate token project.

Memecoins remain in capitulation mode: market cap’s down 30% this month, XPL collapsed 75% in twenty days, and even new listings on Robinhood (ASTER, XPL, VIRTUALS) failed to spark a bid. Alt strength has narrowed to a handful of names like TAO, which rallied after an $11M raise. Overall, it feels like markets are trying to base—but the mood is fragile. ETF outflows, fading retail momentum, and persistent risk-off signals make this more of a test of conviction than a setup for a clean reversal. For now, traders are watching whether BTC can stabilize above the psychological line before that $100K threshold becomes a magnet.

Market Data Points

Over the past week, Arbitrum has been the clear outlier in a market otherwise defined by defensive positioning and liquidity withdrawal. Despite the broader downturn and heavy deleveraging across crypto, Arbitrum absorbed nearly $1B in net inflows, signaling that capital is rotating — not retreating entirely — but concentrating in deeper, safer ecosystems. By contrast, Hyperliquid, Unichain, and BNB Chain saw sharp outflows, consistent with traders unwinding risk from smaller or more speculative environments.

ETF flow trends in October have flipped sharply after what started as a strong month for inflows. During the first week, both BTC and ETH ETFs saw steady demand — daily inflows frequently topped $1B combined as traders repositioned after September’s correction. Momentum looked healthy, with institutional desks rebuilding exposure and market sentiment turning cautiously optimistic.

That tone reversed quickly after the mid-month drawdown. As volatility spiked and crypto prices retraced, flows turned decisively negative. BTC ETFs have now shed over $500M in the past few sessions, while ETH products are down roughly $60 million, marking one of the heaviest weekly outflows since late spring.

The takeaway: what began as a renewed accumulation phase has morphed into a capital retreat, driven less by conviction shifts and more by short-term deleveraging. ETF investors appear to be trimming exposure in step with the broader futures market — not exiting the asset class, but waiting for clearer macro signals before redeploying.

SOL’s ETF story is accelerating fast. While no pure U.S. spot Solana ETF is trading yet, filings from 21Shares, VanEck, and Bitwise have advanced to their final procedural stages with the SEC — including Form 8-A12B registrations that typically precede listing approvals. In parallel, hybrid and futures-based Solana products like REX-Osprey’s SOL + Staking ETF and several leveraged SOL funds have already gone live, fueling a sharp rise in institutional exposure.

Cumulative SOL ETF and futures volumes have now topped $15B, reflecting surging demand from regulated capital. With BTC and ETH spot ETFs already established, SOL is rapidly emerging as the third pillar of regulated crypto exposure, and the upcoming 21Shares Solana ETF launch could mark its official entry into mainstream portfolios.

Perpetual funding rates have collapsed across nearly every major crypto asset, plunging to levels not seen since the bear-market capitulation of 2022. What’s unfolding now is a full-scale leverage unwind — traders de-risking, liquidations clearing out crowded longs, and open interest resetting after months of aggressive positioning.

This kind of deep funding compression is rare. It typically marks the end of speculative excess, when overextended leverage gets purged and only committed spot holders remain. The result is a cleaner, more balanced market structure — one that often precedes stronger, more sustainable rallies once liquidity and conviction return.

Morpho has quietly become one of the largest protocols in all of DeFi, with total value locked now above $11.9B. The lending platform’s rapid climb reflects deep integrations with blue-chip assets and growing user preference for its peer-to-peer optimization layer, which improves efficiency and capital allocation compared to traditional pool-based models like Aave or Compound. Despite broader market volatility, Morpho’s growth has remained steady and organic — a testament to its structural efficiency and sticky liquidity.

Majors & Memes

Majors traded heavy this week as the post-liquidation bounce quickly lost steam. BTC led the slide, struggling to find support amid steady ETF outflows and fading momentum. ETH held relatively steady but couldn’t build on early gains, while BNB, SOL, and XRP all rolled over after a brief recovery. ADA, DOGE, and TRX stayed weak, reflecting a broader lack of risk appetite across large caps as traders remained defensive.

Strength was limited to a few names. COAI and TAO stood out with strong upside moves, keeping the AI narrative alive despite choppy conditions. IP, VET, ATOM, ETC, and RNDR also found modest traction as rotation plays, though volumes remained thin and follow-through was limited.

On the losing side, FLR, APT, and PUMP led declines, joined by NEAR, ASTER, and SEI, which gave back earlier gains. OP and FIL also came under pressure as capital rotated out of higher-beta sectors. Overall, the market stayed cautious — majors are consolidating, AI names remain volatile, and traders are yet to show conviction in a broader rebound.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money stayed selective in Solana this week. Adds clustered in a few tickers while breadth was trimmed, consistent with a cautious, post-liquidation tape. KLED continued to attract steady wallet inflows and now carries the largest balance (~$1.61M). CARDS posted a clear week-over-week uptick with a near-$1M balance, and Tokabu printed the sharpest allocation jump on the board.

Outflows were broader. The heaviest cuts showed up in 1 and LION, with sizable week-over-week reductions. LAUNCHCOIN and Fartcoin were also pared, alongside smaller trims in SPARK and URANUS—de-risking rather than full exits given their still-meaningful balances.

One notable newcomer: BELIEVE entered the rankings this week with fresh wallet allocations and a solid starting balance (~$380K). Net-net, capital concentrated into a short list of higher-conviction names (KLED, CARDS, Tokabu) while cutting breadth elsewhere—an accumulation pattern that reads as risk-aware rather than risk-on.

Smart money activity across the EVM ecosystem picked up selectively this week, with wallets showing a mix of strong accumulation in new or smaller names and profit-taking in older positions. SPX led inflows by a wide margin, seeing wallets more than double holdings and pushing balances toward the upper tier of tracked tokens. Block followed with a sharp surge in allocations, jumping nearly fivefold to emerge as one of the most notable new concentrations of capital. BOOE and CULT also attracted light but steady accumulation, maintaining consistent balances across active wallets.

On the other side, Mog saw significant trimming as holdings fell sharply, suggesting some unwinding after prior heavy positioning. PEPE slipped slightly, showing muted changes in wallet exposure, while larger meme positions like APU and TRWA held steady with no net inflows or exits—pointing to a wait-and-see approach rather than broad risk rotation.

The overall pattern suggests a tentative return of risk appetite, though positioning is still narrow and conviction appears focused on newer narratives rather than across-the-board buying.

And zoning in on the BNB ecosystem now — activity remains mixed as traders weigh fresh opportunities against lingering caution following recent Binance headlines. Market leaders ASTER and COAI continue to dominate flows, though both saw choppy trading this week. COAI pulled back sharply after a strong multi-week run, while ASTER held firmer and still posted respectable weekly gains. Cake provided some steadiness, with modest inflows helping it remain one of the more stable DeFi plays in the group.

Further down the list, XPL and BAS showed brief bursts of strength before retracing, and KOGE, BLESS, and the 4 tokens traded largely flat on lower volume. Newer listings such as KGEN, RIVER, and ZBT lost momentum, underscoring thinner risk appetite across the ecosystem.

Overall, liquidity remains healthy but positioning is clearly more cautious. Traders are sticking to liquid names after last week’s deleveraging incident and the broader Binance-related FUD. The ecosystem is still active, but following its recent surge, capital rotation has slowed as participants take a breather and reassess exposure.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀

GM Anon,

What just happened was a total reset. A single tariff post out of Washington triggered a trillion-dollar equity wipe and sent crypto into freefall. BTC collapsed out of the 120Ks, ETH broke 4K, and some alts were nuked to near zero as liquidity vanished. Exchanges froze, spreads blew out, and well over 10B in liquidations hit before anyone could react.

DeFi held its ground — liquidations cleared, pegs held, and the rails stayed intact. The leverage is gone, the structure’s been flushed, and the next phase begins — slower, cleaner, and built on real liquidity.

We’ll deviate from our normal structure today to focus entirely on this event — what triggered it, how the market broke, and what it means for positioning going forward. Let’s break it down.

Catalyst and Timeline

It started in the final hour of U.S. trading. Out of nowhere, an official post confirmed a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods — up to 100% by early November — framed with the kind of combative tone that usually precedes escalation, not negotiation.

The reaction was immediate. The S&P 500 went from record highs to a vertical drop, erasing roughly 1T in market value within forty minutes. One chart showed about 700B gone in the first three minutes.

Crypto reacted instantly. BTC slipped out of the 110K–120K zone and dove toward the low six figures before finding any bid. ETH lost the 4K level in a single swing. The rest of the market didn’t stand a chance — liquidity vanished and alts collapsed, some down 70–90% in minutes. It wasn’t a selloff; it was a freefall.

The timing made it worse. The announcement landed right in the gap between U.S. close and Asia open, the thinnest stretch of the 24-hour cycle. Market makers were caught flat-footed, spreads blew out, and algorithms failed to keep up. Slippage turned into a vacuum.

Then came the whiplash. Barely an hour later, headlines hinted that Trump might still meet with Xi — a total reversal in tone that confused traders already fighting for footing. Most read it as posturing rather than a genuine policy shift, but it cemented one truth: macro headlines, not fundamentals, are steering this market.

Microstructure — How the Market Broke

The first wave down revealed how shallow market depth had become. Order books emptied almost instantly, and spreads on spot and perp pairs that normally trade near zero jumped into double digits. On some majors, gaps reached the mid-teens — a clear sign that market makers hit risk limits and pulled back. This wasn’t orderly selling; it was liquidity disappearing all at once.

The pressure quickly spread to the exchanges. System-load warnings went up across multiple venues as engines lagged under the surge in traffic. Traders faced delayed confirmations, frozen cancels, and price feeds that stopped matching execution. Many couldn’t tell if their orders had gone through until long after the move was over.

Arbitrage, which normally stabilizes pricing between venues, broke completely. With latency spiking and withdrawals stalled, even professional desks couldn’t close spreads. That’s how ATOM briefly printed $0.001 on Binance— not a real valuation, just an empty book. Theoretical profits existed, but most could not  move fast enough to capture them. Though some lucky ones did capitalize.

Deleveraging — Size, Shape, and Who Got Hit

The numbers were staggering. Roughly 9–10B in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, almost entirely on the long side. Some estimates stretched closer to 19B once partial fills and cross-venue data were accounted for — by any measure, it was the largest single-day flush the market has ever seen.

The leverage imbalance was obvious even before the collapse. Funding had stayed stubbornly positive for weeks as traders crowded into longs. When the tariff shock hit, that flipped fast — funding turned flat, then negative, as open interest across majors was torched. The entire perp structure reset, basis collapsed, and speculative leverage was erased in one go.

Majors like BTC and ETH took heavy hits but held some structure. The long tail didn’t. Alt pairs fell into genuine discontinuity — 70–95% collapses, zero-liquidity gaps, and stops that never triggered because matching engines skipped entire levels. These weren’t normal liquidations; they were hard resets in markets with no bids.

What made the timing suspicious was the pattern of pre-positioning. Large shorts — one around 750M on BTC, another 330M on ETH — appeared minutes before the tariff announcement. Fresh derivative accounts posted nine-figure profits within hours.

At the same time, hundreds of millions in stablecoins and ETH flowed into major exchanges just before the move. Whether those transfers were defensive hedges, internal liquidity shifts, or opportunistic trades, they amplified the cascade once it started.

As for who blew up — that answer takes longer to surface. But the signs point toward at least one large participant or fund caught offside: likely a market-making desk with capped inventory, a basis book reliant on positive funding, or a fund running high-beta alt perps with thin collateral. The wreckage will become clear over the next few days.

DeFi’s Stress Test — Resilient Where It Mattered

While centralized venues buckled, DeFi held its ground. On-chain money markets faced record liquidations — roughly 180M cleared in under an hour — all executed automatically, without downtime or manual intervention. That’s exactly what these systems were built for: liquidate to preserve solvency, no excuses.

As prices plunged, liquidation bots went into overdrive, gas costs spiked, and keepers were paid handsomely to keep collateral ratios in check. Even under the heaviest stress since 2022, the major lending protocols stayed operational. No pools froze, no governance votes were needed, and no insolvencies appeared in the critical first hours.

For a move this violent, that outcome matters. DeFi didn’t rely on human intervention or opaque coordination — it worked as coded. In a night when centralized systems lagged, jammed, or locked users out, on-chain risk engines proved they can handle chaos. It was a reminder that while prices broke everywhere, the infrastructure underneath didn’t.

Macro Frame — Why the Spark Caught So Fast

As noted by The Kobeissi Letter, this crash didn’t come out of nowhere — the macro setup was already stretched to breaking point. The U.S. economy was flashing contradictions everywhere: a labor market clearly softening, under-employment climbing to 8.1% (the highest since 2021), and inflation still running above 3%. The market’s response had been to look past it — pricing in renewed Fed rate cuts even as price pressures lingered. It was a perfect recipe for inflated asset prices built on liquidity rather than fundamentals.

At the same time, the USD had been sliding sharply, now down more than 10% year-to-date — on pace for its worst performance since 1973. That weakness helped fuel risk assets across the board, while the AI capex boom kept equities pinned near all-time highs. The “Magnificent Seven” alone are spending over 100B per quarter on infrastructure and chips, representing nearly 40% of total S&P 500 capital expenditure. It’s a liquidity supercycle propping up valuations across tech and crypto alike.

Into that environment came the tariff shock — the return of trade-war politics at a time when no one was hedged for it. The market had completely discounted policy risk. When those headlines hit, liquidity was thin, leverage was heavy, and every algorithm was leaning the same way. The result was instant: a crash that looked less like price discovery and more like forced deleveraging across the global risk complex.

Still, there’s a good case that the tariff move was more posturing than policy. Even The Kobeissi Letter called a prolonged trade war “highly unlikely,” viewing it as near-term noise within a macro backdrop still defined by rate cuts, AI investment, and a weakening dollar. That may prove true — but positioning is what breaks markets, not policy alone. And the positioning has now been wiped clean.

Flows & Funding

Capital moved fast once the selloff started. BTC dominance surged as traders dumped alts and rotated into majors or stables. For a brief window, top stablecoins even traded above peg — a telltale sign of panic demand for dry powder. Exchange inflows spiked as margin calls were covered and opportunistic bids stepped in to fade the panic. It was a full-blown flight to safety inside the crypto ecosystem.

On the derivatives side, the reset was just as violent. Open interest across majors collapsed as leverage was flushed out. Funding, which had been running hot for weeks, flipped from firmly positive to neutral or outright negative. Perps that had been trading at rich premiums to spot were suddenly priced at discount. The leverage-fueled optimism that carried the market for months vanished in a matter of hours.

What Comes Next — Rebuilding After the Shock

The next phase of the market won’t be about price — it will be about structure, confidence, and the slow process of rebuilding liquidity after one of the sharpest wipes in crypto history. The leverage has been burned off, but positioning scars take time to heal. What matters now is whether policy tone, exchange reliability, and derivatives structure can normalize faster than traders re-risk.

The policy tape remains the most important driver. Any official walk-back, clarification, or adjusted timetable around tariffs will immediately show up in spreads. A genuine de-escalation would tighten markets and pull liquidity providers back in, while further escalation could trigger another flight to safety. This episode proved that headline risk can now move hundreds of billions in minutes; traders will stay hypersensitive to every line that hits the wire.

Behind the noise, the probability of a prolonged trade war remains low. The tariff announcement looked like political maneuvering more than a sustained policy pivot. Still, traders will demand proof before re-leveraging. Markets may fade the rhetoric later, but for now, no one wants to be caught on the wrong side of the next headline.

Venue stability will decide how fast the market can recover. Latency, queue times, and withdrawal processing are the best tells of internal stress. If the major exchanges normalize within 24–48 hours, the healing process can start; if order books remain shallow and user interfaces lag, confidence won’t return.

Liquidity providers can’t quote aggressively until they’re certain matching engines will respond properly. That feedback loop — healthy venues attracting tighter spreads — is the mechanical heartbeat of market structure. When it fails, even good news can’t move the market cleanly.

The next real signal will come from funding and open interest. Right now, both have reset — open interest collapsed across majors, and funding flipped from positive to flat or negative. The key is how these metrics behave as volatility cools. Sustained neutral or negative funding with steady spot levels usually marks smart accumulation; a sudden spike back into positive territory would suggest traders are piling in too quickly.

A gradual rebuild in open interest is the cleanest scenario — steady growth over several days, not an overnight rush. That’s how structural bids return without reigniting speculative excess. If OI spikes in hours instead of days, it means lessons weren’t learned, and another flush becomes likely.

The next rotation will tell you who’s back in control. After crashes like this, recovery always starts narrow — BTC and ETH first, then a few quality alts with clear catalysts. If the long tail continues leaking even as majors stabilize, risk appetite hasn’t truly returned.

Stablecoin behavior also reveals intent. Inflows into exchanges are often reactive — margin calls, liquidation coverage, and opportunistic bids. What matters is what follows: if those same stables flow back out to self-custody, that signals accumulation by strong hands, not short-term speculation. Watch for that outflow pattern before trusting any rebound.

Forensics and the Hidden Supply Overhang

Behind the scenes, post-mortems are already underway. The tell will be how many large players surface as casualties. If a major fund, market maker, or basis desk blew up during the crash, their forced supply is probably already out — meaning the worst of the liquidation pressure has passed. If not, secondary unwind risk lingers. Watch on-chain and exchange traces for hints: new wallet consolidations, sudden collateral movements, or delayed settlement flows.

Once those players are flushed, the market can breathe. Until then, any rally remains fragile.

Scenarios and Trade Levels

The base case for the next one to two weeks is high-volatility consolidation. BTC likely trades in a 105K–120K band while ETH oscillates between 3.5K–4.1K. This isn’t the setup for a V-shaped recovery — the microstructure needs time to rebuild, and historical patterns after structural breaks usually produce “W” formations with one or two retests before trending resumes.

A bullish scenario would require multiple things to align: tariff rhetoric cooling, exchange stability restored, and ETF or institutional inflows resuming. In that setup, BTC reclaims and holds ~120K, ETH steadies above 4K, and market dominance plateaus as capital rotates selectively into L1s and L2s with genuine activity.

The bearish path is the opposite. If trade headlines escalate and equities take a second leg down, market makers will stay risk-off. BTC could retest the low 100Ks, possibly dip below six figures, while ETH revisits the low 3Ks and alts continue to bleed.

The path of pain sits in between — the market teases recovery, funding flips positive, and another headline punishes traders for chasing too early. The solution is simple: keep size light and let confirmation come through structure, not emotion.

Reference levels worth tracking:

• BTC: hold above 120K to confirm recovery; lose 105K with volume and you open 98–100K.
  

• ETH: 4K remains the battleground; 3.5–3.6K should attract the first serious bids; sub-3.4K opens deeper risk.
  

• Alts: any 30–50% bounce should be viewed as flow-driven noise until spreads, depth, and funding validate it.

The market bent but didn’t break. The leverage that fueled the last leg is gone, and what remains is cleaner structure and a more honest price floor. The system’s integrity — both on-chain and off — has been tested and proven resilient. What comes next isn’t a euphoric rebound but a rebuilding phase: thinner, slower, and healthier.

When liquidity providers step back in, funding steadies, and volatility fades, the market will find its footing. Until then, survival is the trade — patience the alpha.

That wraps up today’s breakdown — stay safe out there, keep risk tight, and let the market settle before making your next move. See you next week, anon.