September has a reputation problem.

Yes, it’s historically the worst month of the year on “average”.

But blaming the calendar for weak markets is a little like blaming Monday for your hangover.

The date usually isn’t the problem. What you brought into it is.

That’s the key distinction heading into September.

When you look at the 20 best Septembers since 1928, 16 occurred with the S&P 500 above its 200 day moving average and 15 came with the market already positive year to date.

The worst Septembers show almost the exact opposite profile.

Yes, this is all a bunch of fancy data I spent hours working on. But to put it simply...

Bull markets generally don’t care what month it is. Weak markets do.

That’s really the takeaway.

September itself isn’t the risk.

Weak trends, deteriorating breadth, and vulnerable charts are the risk.

Let’s get into it.

Before I get into the individual charts I’m watching, I always like to understand the context of the broader market.

So let’s start with the S&P 500.

If we zoom out and understand the market structure first, it gives us the context for all the trends and trades taking place underneath it. It tells us whether we should be pressing, fading, or simply being a little more patient.

The primary trend is still higher. That hasn’t changed.

Tactically, though, things have gotten a little messier.

The S&P 500 is chopping around in a range while short term breadth has been deteriorating.

Fewer stocks are participating, but we also haven’t reached the kind of washed out breadth readings where weakness starts becoming an opportunity in itself.

We’re basically stuck in market purgatory.

Not bad enough to get excited about buying weakness.

Not strong enough to start swinging at everything that moves.

And that context matters as we work through the charts below.

The mega caps aren’t dominating the market like they have in previous years, but they’re also not broken.

The MAGS ETF remains above its all time high AVWAP and continues to work through a large base.

That’s important because roughly a third of the S&P 500 lives here.

As long as these stocks are holding their underlying uptrends, it’s hard for me to get aggressively bearish on the broader market.

The more interesting question is whether they can actually start leading again.

Amazon

Amazon is exactly the kind of messy chart I’m willing to stalk in this environment.

It’s sitting near support around the prior breakout area with relatively clean risk. Consumer Discretionary broadly hasn’t been impressive, but if Amazon can find its footing, there’s room for a tactical mean reversion move back toward the upper end of the range.

I don’t need to marry it.

I just need a decent entry, a defined exit, and hopefully a nice dinner together.

Nvidia

Nvidia continues to look constructive.

It broke out and is now building another base around the prior highs. It’s not sitting right on top of support anymore, so I’m not chasing it here, but this is one of the stocks I’m watching closely.

If the S&P 500 is going to make another meaningful push higher, these mega cap names probably need to participate.

Software has been one of the more interesting reversal areas recently.

Tyler Technologies is a good example.

Price is attempting to reclaim the 200 day moving average after a long period of weakness.

This is early.

And bottoms are messy.

Nobody rings a bell and hands you a certificate saying the downtrend has officially ended.

I’m more interested in seeing whether these names can correct from overbought conditions without falling apart again.

If RSI can hold around 50 and reclaimed levels become support, the evidence for a larger trend reversal gets stronger.

Small exposure and patience make sense here.

I’ve been pretty critical of parts of the semiconductor space lately. Some of the charts have looked vulnerable, and I haven’t wanted to give that weakness a free pass.

But semiconductors are still a leadership area I want to see reassert itself.

It’s the largest industry within the S&P 500, and more importantly, it remains one of the major linchpins of the entire AI trade. If this market is going to make another sustained push higher, it would certainly help to have semis back in gear.

That’s why a chart like SanDisk gets my attention.

Strong underlying trend. Consolidation. Reclaim of the all time high AVWAP. Then follow through.

I’ve said this before, but I love clean charts. I don’t necessarily love waiting for perfectly clean trades.

Sometimes the better opportunity comes while a chart is still working through the mess because your risk is tighter and your entry is better.

If semiconductors start reasserting themselves here, there are plenty of setups worth paying attention to.

I’ll keep my crypto thesis sophisticated:

Buy strong charts with defined risk.

That’s it.

Crypto spent months doing nothing interesting, so we didn’t need to talk about it.

Now some of these charts are trending again, so they matter.

We don’t suddenly need to become experts on blockchain architecture because the chart went up.

Hut 8 is one I like here.

The weekly chart has a clean breakout and retest while RSI is holding near 50.

Zooming into the daily, the 200 day moving average is becoming support and short interest adds another wrinkle.

I’m currently long HUT.

That doesn’t mean I know what Bitcoin does next.

It means I like the chart and I know where I’m wrong.

Forget the idea that September automatically means stocks go down.

The better question is what kind of market is entering September.

Right now, the primary trend is still higher, but participation is becoming more selective.

September doesn’t mean hide under your desk.

It means stop giving bad charts participation trophies.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

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The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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Every year around this time, the same stat starts making the rounds.

September is the worst month for stocks.

And if all you do is look at the average return, nod your head, and get bearish, the research is pretty easy.

It’s also incomplete.

I spent this week digging through S&P 500 data going back to 1928 because I wanted to understand what’s actually behind September’s reputation.

Not just what September does on average, but when it tends to matter, what conditions make it dangerous, and what the current market actually looks like entering the month.

That’s the bigger lesson here.

Seasonality isn’t a signal by itself. It’s context.

And if you’re going to use statistics in markets, you’ve got to do the work underneath the headline number.

Let’s get into it.

The first mistake with seasonality is treating an average like a forecast.

September has a lousy reputation because some of its worst outcomes have been really bad.

Those tail events pull the average lower and make the typical September look worse than it actually is.

But rather than arbitrarily removing bad years, there’s a better question:

What did the market look like before those bad Septembers happened?

That’s where things get interesting.

Going back to 1928, when the S&P 500 entered September with a negative year to date return, September averaged negative 2.99%.

Only 38.7% of those Septembers were positive.

And when those Septembers were down, the average loss was a nasty negative 6.78%.

That’s where years like 2001, 2002 and 2008 live.

Now flip the conditions.

When the S&P 500 entered September with a positive year to date return, the average September return improved to basically flat at negative 0.16%, the median was +0.59%, and 52.2% of Septembers were positive.

Go one step further.

When the market entered September already up more than 10% for the year, September averaged +0.14%, the median was +0.97%, and 57.9% finished higher.

Same September. Completely different distribution.

That’s the point.

September doesn’t create weakness. It exposes it.

If there’s one filter from this study that really stands out, it’s the simplest one.

Is the S&P 500 above or below its 200 day moving average entering September?

Going back to 1929, there have been 70 Septembers where the S&P entered the month above its 200 day.

The results:

Average return: +0.02%
Median return: +0.50%
Positive: 52.9%
Stayed better than negative 2%: 74.3%
Lost more than 8%: just 1 of 70

Now look below the 200 day.

There have been 27 Septembers in that regime.

Average return: negative 3.82%
Median return: negative 3.67%
Positive: just 33.3%
Lost more than 8%: 7 of 27

The probability of an 8% plus September loss has been roughly 18 times higher below the 200 day than above it.

That isn’t a small difference.

That’s a different market regime.

And it makes intuitive sense. Weak markets are more vulnerable to volatility. Selling feeds on itself. Support breaks. Fear creates more fear.

Strong markets tend to absorb those shocks much better.

The calendar stays the same. The market underneath it doesn’t.

This is where statistics actually become useful.

We don’t want to know what September does in some imaginary average market.

We want to know which historical conditions most closely resemble the market we have today.

Entering September 2026:

S&P 500 year to date: +12.9%

That puts us in the stronger historical bucket where September has averaged roughly flat and the median return has been positive.

S&P 500 vs. 200 day: +10.4% above it

That puts us firmly in the regime where major September drawdowns have historically been much less common.

VIX: roughly 14

The VIX data only goes back to 1990, so this is where that shorter dataset belongs. Volatility isn’t elevated and there isn’t significant fear already priced into the market.

Presidential cycle: Midterm

That’s the caution flag. It argues for expecting more volatility, but the historical record doesn’t argue for automatically expecting downside.

None of this means September has to go up.

That’s not what we’re doing here.

Breadth has softened somewhat in the short term. There are areas of vulnerability, including parts of semiconductors and Consumer Discretionary. That matters because if volatility does show up, weak areas are usually where the damage shows up first.

But the broader trend remains intact.

And until the evidence changes, I’d rather respect the trend than fear the calendar.

---

The biggest takeaway from this study really isn’t about September.

It’s about how we use data.

Anyone can pull up a seasonal chart and tell you September is historically weak.

That’s the easy part.

The real work starts afterward.

What’s driving the average?

What happens in bull markets versus bear markets?

What happens above the 200 day versus below it?

What happens when the year is already strong?

What does the current market actually look like?

That’s how seasonality becomes useful instead of just another scary headline.

Knowing the statistic isn’t the edge.

Understanding the conditions behind the statistic is.

Or maybe even simpler:

The calendar tells us what to pay attention to. Price tells us what to do.

September can absolutely get messy.

But right now, the evidence says respect the possibility of volatility without automatically betting against the trend.

That’s the difference between using seasonality and being used by it.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

Check it out.

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The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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The S&P 500 had a rough week.

If you owned the right stocks, you might not have noticed.

That’s really the point of this entire exercise.

We’re still in a bull market.

The primary trend remains higher, long term breadth is healthy, and I’m not seeing anything in the bigger picture that changes that.

So I’m approaching this market the same way I approach most Bull markets.

Being opportunistic and owning leadership.

The interesting part right now is that leadership looks increasingly different from the S&P 500 itself.

Let’s get into it.

Every week I run breadth across the major sectors, looking at the percentage of stocks above various moving averages.

Lately, some of the strongest participation has been coming from places most investors would probably describe as boring.

Healthcare. Energy. Materials. Financials.

Meanwhile, technology, the largest weight in the S&P 500 by a mile, is taking a breather.

That got me thinking.

How much of the market’s current leadership does the S&P 500 actually own?

So I pulled every S&P 500 constituent and measured how far each stock was from its 52 week high.

Here are the four numbers that tell the story:

85 stocks in the S&P 500 are currently within 5% of a 52 week high.

Those 85 stocks represent only 15.5% of the index’s weight.

Of the S&P 500’s 73 Information Technology stocks, only two are within 5% of a 52 week high.

Technology, meanwhile, represents roughly 37% of the entire index.

That’s a pretty interesting disconnect.

The sector carrying more than a third of the S&P 500’s weight is producing almost none of the stocks currently sitting near highs.

Meanwhile, leadership is showing up somewhere else.

Healthcare is 9.5% of the index, but represents 27.1% of the stocks near 52 week highs.

I wrote a quick note on Healthcare earlier this week.

Energy is only 3.5% of the S&P 500, but represents 11.8% of the leadership group.

Materials represents just 1.8% of the index, but almost 6% of the stocks near highs.

Financials are 12.2% of the index, but account for 16.5% of the near high group.

Then there’s technology.

37.4% of the index. Just 2.4% of the stocks near highs.

That helps explain how the S&P 500 can have a mediocre week while plenty of stocks underneath the surface are doing just fine.

And there’s an important nuance here.

This isn’t simply a small stocks versus big stocks story.

The 85 stocks near highs represent roughly 17% of S&P 500 constituents and 15.5% of its weight.

This is a sector rotation story.

Healthcare, energy, financials and materials are producing a disproportionate amount of the current leadership…but you don’t own it buy the indexes.

This is where the charts make the data much more tangible.

Take energy.

The S&P 500 gives you roughly 3.5% exposure to energy.

The Nasdaq 100 gives you almost none.

Yet XLE just broke through another major resistance area and continues to make higher highs.

That doesn’t mean energy can’t pull back.

It doesn’t mean we blindly chase anything with an energy ticker.

It means when I’m looking for places to increase exposure in a bull market, this is where I want to be digging.

Materials tell a similar story.

The S&P 500 gives you roughly 2% exposure to materials, yet XLB continues to press against the top of a large base after already breaking through a major resistance level earlier this year.

And underneath the sector ETF, the individual stocks make the point even clearer.

Freeport McMoRan has now broken above a resistance zone that dates all the way back to the 2008 and 2011 highs.

That’s not a three week breakout.

That’s a multi decade breakout.

Southern Copper is doing something similar on a shorter time frame. After spending most of the year building a large base beneath its prior highs, SCCO is now pushing through that resistance.

This is exactly what I mean when I talk about owning leadership.

I don’t need a narrative telling me copper should go higher.

I don’t need to predict where energy prices are six months from now.

I’ve got price telling me where money is already flowing.

Twitter tweet

This is how we generate alpha.

We don’t have to own what the index owns.

And as individual investors, we’ve got a flexibility that the S&P 500 doesn’t.

We can zig while the index zags.

If healthcare is producing leadership, we can increase exposure to healthcare.

If energy is breaking out while representing only 3.5% of the index, we can own more energy.

If materials are producing new highs while the S&P 500 gives us less than 2% exposure, we can go hunting through materials.

And if individual names like FCX and SCCO are confirming what we’re seeing at the sector level, that gives us another piece of evidence.

That doesn’t mean I’m selling every technology position I own.

It doesn’t mean mega cap technology is dead.

And it certainly doesn’t mean I know how long this rotation lasts.

I don’t need to know.

I want to own leadership while it’s leadership, manage risk around my positions, and let the market tell me when something has changed.

That’s the beauty of the process.

We align with the market and let the market do the work.

Owning the S&P 500 has been a fantastic strategy.

But remember what you’re actually buying.

You’re buying a market cap weighted portfolio where an enormous amount of your exposure is concentrated in technology and a handful of massive companies.

Right now, many of the stocks doing the best work live somewhere else.

To me, that’s not bearish.

It’s opportunity.

There are plenty of stocks working in this bull market.

You just might have to look somewhere other than the front page of the S&P 500 to find them.

Keep watching the tape.

Keep digging through the boring areas.

Keep following leadership wherever it goes.

Don’t let the S&P 500 own you.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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First things first, thank you.

The amount of love and support you guys have shown us over the past month has been incredible.

Baby Harvey and Momma are both doing great so it’s time to get back to work.

The first show back had to be All Gas No Brakes.

20+ Charts in 20 minutes.

After being away for a few weeks, though, I didn’t want to come back and immediately start throwing a bunch of individual trades at you.

I actually did very little trading while I was out.

I mostly let the positions I already had on, and the broader market, do the work for me.

And funny enough, that was probably the biggest lesson from the entire break.

Sometimes you step away, come back a month later, look at your account and realize the market didn’t exactly need your help.

So rather than giving you a giant shopping list this weekend, I want to start one level higher.

Where should we be fishing?

Because right now, there are plenty of ponds worth throwing a line into.

The S&P 500 is making new all-time highs.

Nothing groundbreaking there.

What’s more important is what’s happening underneath the surface.

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average is also sitting near its highs for the year.

This isn’t simply a market-cap-weighted index being dragged higher by a few giant technology companies.

The underlying stocks are participating too.

In the show I called it a bull market in the market and a bull market in the market of stocks.

The equal-weight indexes make the point even cleaner.

Take away market-cap weighting and give every S&P 500 stock the same influence.

Still at all-time highs.

The Russell 1000 equal weight, which spreads exposure across more than 90% of the U.S. equity market capitalization, is also at all-time highs.

That’s broad participation.

And I think there’s an important behavioral lesson buried in there.

Investors love believing returns come from finding the perfect stock.

We want to believe we found something nobody else saw.

Sometimes that’s true.

But when I can take a month off, barely touch anything, and come back to an account that did just fine without me, it’s a pretty good reminder that the bull market is doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

That should crush your ego a little bit.

In a good way.

You don’t always need to find the next high flyer.

Sometimes you just need to identify a healthy environment, own uptrends, manage your risk and stay out of the market’s way.

And right now, the opportunity set looks pretty broad.

The second thing that jumped out going through the market was where some of the best trends are developing.

Everyone wants to talk about technology.

I get it.

But ironically, technology is probably one of the harder areas of the market to initiate trades in right now.

Software has ripped after spending much of the year frustrating everyone, and portions of semiconductors are stuck somewhere between their intermediate and longer-term trends.

Meanwhile, some of the supposedly boring areas are just grinding higher.

Financials are a great example.

Financials didn’t have the explosive momentum that technology or semiconductors had.

They just kept going up.

The strength isn’t isolated either.

Look at $KBE ( ▼ 0.28% )  

I joked during the show that you can basically throw a rock into Financials and hit an uptrend.

That’s the type of pond I want to be fishing in.

Healthcare is another one.

Healthcare spent a long time building a base.

Then price broke out and, at the same time, momentum transitioned from a bearish RSI regime into a bullish one.

That’s the type of character change I pay attention to.

Technical analysis doesn’t need to be perfectly drawn lines or some voodoo pattern that magically predicts the future.

Price is the result of supply and demand.

When the characteristics of price change, something underneath the surface has changed too.

That’s what we’ve seen in Healthcare.

And underneath the sector, Pharmaceuticals continue to trend well.

Healthcare Providers have broken their longer-term downtrend.

Biotech continues to consolidate within an underlying uptrend.

There’s plenty to dig through.

Taking a month away from the market was good for me.

It reminded me that our job isn’t to make stocks go up.

Our job is to figure out what the market is already doing and align ourselves with it.

Right now, there are plenty of opportunities.

I ripped through more than 20 charts in this week’s All Gas No Brakes, including Energy, Technology, Software, Biotech, Materials, Financials, Healthcare, Growth versus Value, High Beta versus Low Volatility and a handful of other areas I didn’t get into here.

If you want the charts behind the argument and some homework for the weekend, give the full episode a watch.

Sometimes the hardest thing to do in a bull market is simply letting the bull market do the work.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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There are only two types of investors.

Those who make mistakes and liars.

Intellectual honesty is one of the most important parts of this business.

It is easy to explain away a bad trade, highlight the winners, and quietly move past the decisions that did not work.

It is much harder to study the evidence and admit where your process broke down.

But that’s where the real improvement happens.

This is a glass house business. Everyone makes mistakes.

The difference is whether you hide them, repeat them, or learn from them.

So that’s what I did.

This review is focused on my discretionary “degenerate account,” not my long term trend following or systematic portfolios.

This is the account where I trade more actively, use options, occasionally short, and test ideas with real money.

The goal is not to beat myself up.

The goal is to identify where the process was inefficient, where attention was wasted, and where better execution could improve the second half.

Hopefully you guys can learn something from it too.

Across 112 closed trades, I held my winners for an average of 8.5 days and my losers for 11.6 days.

On the surface, that’s exactly what you don’t want.

I clipped the winners and married the losers.

The options data does needs a little context though.

Some of those losing contracts were already basically worthless before expiration, but I kept holding them until they formally expired.

That stretched out the average holding period and made the loser data look worse than the actual decision timeline.

Still, the lesson doesn’t change.

My risk was defined at entry. I could only lose the premium I paid.

But defined risk isn’t the same thing as efficient risk management.

Once the probability, time remaining, and payoff no longer made sense, there wasn’t much reason to keep holding the position.

Closing earlier wouldn’t have turned those trades into winners.

But it could’ve preserved some remaining premium, improved the account’s profit factor, and freed up capital for better option setups.

That matters because 12 contracts expired worthless and accounted for roughly 30% of the losses in the account.

The adjustment for the second half is pretty simple.

Options need exit rules too.

Not just a maximum loss, but a point where the math no longer makes sense.

Defined risk tells you how much you can lose.

A proper exit tells you when it’s no longer worth staying involved.

My biggest mistake may not have shown up directly in the P&L.

It showed up in the amount of time and mental energy I spent trying to perfect messy bottoming trades.

Software was the clearest example.

Semiconductors were trending higher.

Technology broke out.

The cleaner leadership was right there.

Instead, I kept trying to finesse the software catch-up trade.

The mistake wasn’t having the thesis.

The mistake was repeatedly trying to force the timing.

The same issue showed up in housing.

The bottoming thesis made sense. The risk was identifiable.

But bottoms can take a lot longer than you think, and when a position is too large, every wiggle demands attention.

That’s where position sizing matters.

A smaller position lets the thesis breathe without turning the trade into a second job.

A larger position forces you to trade every move, which usually means more decisions, more noise, and more chances to get chopped up.

Opportunity cost isn’t just capital. It’s attention.

A watchlist can quietly turn into a museum of old ideas.

You keep staring at the same charts, trading the same names, and assuming the next opportunity has to come from something you already know.

It doesn’t.

The second-half adjustment is to keep scanning, keep refreshing, and stop assuming the next winner has to come from the same trade I’ve already tried five times.

The January rotation was real, and it wasn’t especially bullish at the time.

Energy, materials, and defensives were leading.

Technology and other growth areas were lagging.

I recognized that correctly.

The mistake came later.

When technology regained leadership and broke out, I was slow to rebuild direct exposure.

I stayed too focused on laggards catching up instead of simply buying the groups that were already proving themselves.

Bull Markets reward a willingness to own strength.

That can feel uncomfortable because strong assets often look extended. But momentum isn’t always a flaw.

In a healthy trend, it’s often the whole point.

*NOTE - Like I said earlier, I use this account often to “fight” trends as my other account is more long term systematic trend following so it had exposure to tech and semis but it’s still good insight.

None of this means the first half was a failure.

My win rate was roughly 40%, but the account still produced a 1.75 profit factor.

That means about $175 in gains for every $100 in losses.

The edge was there.

The point of this review isn’t that the process failed.

It’s that the process could’ve been cleaner, more efficient, and less mentally expensive.

You don’t need to be right most of the time.

You need the math of the winners and losers to work.

The first half wasn’t about avoiding mistakes.

That was never an option.

It was about keeping them small enough to study.

The three lessons are pretty straightforward.

Define the exit before the entry, including with options.

Stop wasting attention on trades that refuse to work.

And in a bull market, don’t get so obsessed with finding the next leader that you ignore the leaders already sitting right in front of you.

Professionals don’t avoid mistakes.

They avoid letting small mistakes become big ones.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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Last week, I walked through “The Best Stocks You Don’t Own”

The message was pretty simple.

I’m bullish on the market, but I’m bullish in a very specific way.

The better opportunities right now continue to be under the surface, in areas the S&P 500 doesn’t own enough of.

That matters because this week I wanted to do the opposite.

Instead of pounding the table on the bull case, I wanted to play devil’s advocate.

Not because I’ve flipped bearish.

Not because I think the market has to roll over.

But because good investors should be willing to go look for what they don’t want to find.

That’s the search for intellectual honesty.

One of the key ideas from this week’s video is that we tend to see what we’re looking for.

If you’re bullish, you’ll find bullish charts.

If you’re bearish, you’ll find bearish charts.

That’s human nature.

The brain tries to correct the data in real time to match what it already believes.

Which is exactly why we need a process to play Devil’s Advocate routinely.

The point of playing devil’s advocate isn’t to suddenly throw on a bear suit and start yelling about the end of days.

The point is to stay honest.

I’m still bullish.

The weight of the evidence still leans that way.

But being bullish doesn’t mean we have to ignore the red flags sitting right in front of us.

Stay with the long-term uptrends. Respect the areas showing leadership.

Be aware of rates. Be aware of index concentration.

And be aware that the S&P 500 can struggle even while plenty of stocks underneath the surface are working.

That’s not a contradiction.

That’s just the market doing market things.

Last week was about the best stocks you don’t own.

This week is about the risks you shouldn’t ignore.

The goal isn’t to predict.

The goal is to stay aligned with the evidence, manage risk, and have enough intellectual honesty to look at the charts that don’t confirm what we already believe.

Because if you only go looking for bullish playing cards, don’t be surprised when the market eventually deals you something different.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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Owning the S&P 500 is not the same thing as owning the market.

When you buy the S&P 500, you’re buying a cap-weighted index with a big overweight to large-cap Technology and a handful of mega-cap growth names.

That’s great when those stocks are working.

When they’re not, it starts to feel like trying to hold back a fart after a night of Indian food.

An uphill battle.

And that’s what makes this kind of environment a Technician’s Dream.

When passive buy-and-hold exposure starts getting dragged around by yesterday’s leadership, the people willing to do the work underneath the surface get rewarded.

Because the best stocks right now probably aren’t the ones everyone’s talking about.

They’re probably the ones you don’t own.

Let’s get into it.

The S&P 500 isn’t broken.

Price is still above the April low anchored VWAP and above the 200-day moving average.

The broader trend is still intact.

But underneath the surface, something more interesting is happening.

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day moving average continues to improve.

We’re seeing higher lows in short-term participation, even while the cap-weighted index looks a little tired near the highs.

When the index looks choppy, but more stocks underneath the surface are improving, that’s where technicians can add value.

That’s where relative performance can show up.

That’s where you can generate alpha instead of just sitting in the same crowded names hoping they wake up.

The equal-weight S&P 500 is telling a similar story.

RSI is staying above 50, which keeps the structure in that bullish, innocent-until-proven-guilty regime.

The reason the S&P 500 looks a little heavier isn’t complicated.

It’s the big guys.

Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Meta still matter because they dominate the index.

Passive investors own more of them every week whether they realize it or not.

But the group itself doesn’t look great.

The MAGS ETF failed its breakout.

RSI ran into resistance near 50.

Several names are stuck in messy moving average and anchored VWAP traffic.

That’s not exactly where I want to spend my whole weekend.

Meta looks like AVWAP purgatory.

Microsoft looks rough.

Amazon looks mid.

Nvidia looks fine, but one stock doesn’t make a healthy tape.

The point isn’t that these stocks have to crash.

The point is that they’re no longer the only game in town.

And if they’re not leading, owning the S&P 500 becomes a very different experience.

That’s why we have to look below the surface.

The sector breadth work is where this gets interesting.

Technology and Communication Services are the weak spots below the 50-day moving average, which matters because those are the areas carrying a lot of weight in the S&P 500.

But underneath the surface, participation is improving in places like Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples.

That’s the market of stocks doing something different than the stock market.

The same message shows up in growth versus value.

Growth has been taking a breather, while value has started to improve.

That doesn’t mean the bull market is over.

It means the baton may be getting passed.

Small caps versus large caps are telling a similar story.

They’ve broken higher and reached overbought conditions for the first time in a while.

Could they pause here? Sure.

But the better question is, why didn’t you already have some exposure?

The puck is moving away from the same mega-cap names everyone already owns and into areas that have been ignored, under-owned, or flat-out hated.

Narratives are cute but price pays.

This is where the work gets fun.

Biotech has been one of the cleaner leadership areas.

The setup was simple, an uptrend, a consolidation, then a resolution higher in the direction of the trend.

No need to write a dissertation on rates, drug pricing, or the dollar.

The chart did the work.

Health Care boradly is also waking up.

The sector reclaimed key levels, RSI held above 50 on the pullback, and providers have been especially strong.

Names like $UNH ( ▼ 1.99% ) , $CVS ( ▼ 1.11% ) , and $CNC ( ▼ 2.52% ) are worth taking a look at.

Pharmaceuticals continue to act well too, a space I’ve been annoying about having exposure to. But it’s paying off.

JNJ, MRK, and LLY are all part of that conversation.

Industrials are another area people probably don’t own enough of.

While the S&P 500 looks a little tired near the highs, Industrials are sitting right near all-time highs.

Names tied to infrastructure, aerospace, defense, and electrification still deserve attention.

Insurance might be the funniest one because nobody wants to talk about it.

Progressive, Chubb, Travelers, Allstate, AFLAC.

Pull up the charts.

Some of these things look like they cured cancer and invented the next AI chip before lunch.

Banks are improving as well.

KBE continues to build higher lows, pressing out of bases, and showing better structure.

There are plenty of individual names worth digging through here.

The broader point is simple.

The best charts aren’t all in the same mega-cap Tech names everyone already owns.

They’re showing up in under-owned, under-loved areas of the market.

That’s the opportunity.

The best stocks right now aren’t the ones dominating the headlines.

That’s what makes this environment interesting.

The S&P 500 can look tired because the mega-caps are taking a breather, while the average stock and the under-owned groups quietly improve beneath the surface.

That’s not a problem.

That’s opportunity.

But only if you’re willing to do the work.

Because in this tape, the narratives aren’t paying the bills.

The charts are.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

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Most market content is built around one chart stretched into 700 words.

Sometimes that has its place.

But let’s be honest, a lot of people would rather hear themselves talk than listen to the message of the market.

That ain’t the goal here.

The goal is to align with what the market is actually saying through price, trend, breadth, and rotation.

That is why once a month I do All Gas No Brakes, 20 charts in 20 minutes.

Charts tell the story. Narratives confuse them.

This week, I went a little crazy.

What started as 20 charts turned into more than 30 charts in roughly 20 minutes.

We walked through the S&P 500, equal weight, sector breadth, every major S&P sector, and a handful of individual setups across technology, financials, healthcare, industrials, materials, energy, and small caps.

The message was pretty clear.

The market is still in an uptrend.

There are opportunities underneath the surface if you are willing to look beyond the same crowded names.

No fluff. No narrative gymnastics.

Just charts, context, risk levels, and a quick tour through what the tape is saying.

Because the tape is what pays. Narratives are just used to sell things.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

Follow Me On Twitter (X)

Follow Me on StockTwits

You see it ALL the time.

Some dude gets into investing, reads a few books, finds a Warren Buffett quote, and suddenly he thinks he cracked the code.

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

Great quote but a terrible trading system.

Buffett is obviously one of the greatest investors to ever live.

I’ve read the stuff. I respect the man.

But quoting Buffett doesn’t’ make you Buffett.

If that worked, every guy with The Intelligent Investor on his bookshelf would be rich, shredded, emotionally stable, and somehow own a railroad.

Unfortunately, markets don’t pay for repeating wise quotes.

They pay for sound processes.

And when most people say they want to “buy fear,” what they usually mean is:

“The market is down, the VIX is up, and I want to feel smart for being contrarian.”

Cool.

But there’s a lot of risk in this quote and a better way to buy fear.

Let’s get into it.

Most people use “buy fear” as a vibe.

The VIX goes above 20.

Twitter gets dramatic.

Your uncle texts you asking if he should sell everything.

And then someone says:

“Time to buy. Everyone is fearful.”

Sounds good.

But let’s actually quantify it.

Since 1990, the VIX has been above 20 on roughly 37% of all trading days.

That’s not a signal….

That’s the market saying, “Yeah, things are a little spicy,” more than one third of the time.

If your buy signal fires on more than a third of all trading days, you do not have a signal.

You have a personality trait.

And during real stress events, this gets even more obvious.

During the financial crisis, the VIX stayed above 20 for 331 consecutive trading days.

Read that again.

331 straight trading days.

If your system was simply “buy when the VIX is above 20,” you were buying every single day during a crash that eventually produced a roughly 47% drawdown in the S&P 500.

Congrats, you are now out of chips.

That’s the problem with turning market wisdom into bumper sticker advice.

It sounds smart until you actually have to live through the trade.

Let’s keep this simple.

A VIX above 20 tells you fear is elevated.

It does not tell you fear has peaked.

That distinction matters.

A fever tells you someone is sick. It does not tell you they are about to recover.

Same thing here.

A VIX above 20 tells you the market is under stress.

But stress can build. Panic can accelerate. Selling can compound.

That is why blindly buying VIX above 20 creates some ugly trade paths.

In the data, after a naive VIX above 20 entry with a 60-day hold:

• About 43% of entries experienced a 5% or greater drawdown.

• About 21% experienced a 10% or greater drawdown.

• Nearly 1 in 20 experienced a 20% or greater drawdown.

That is not exactly the peaceful “buy when others are fearful” fantasy people post on social media.

Could it work?

Sure!

But you better have a plan.

Because fear alone gives you no exit, no stop, no sizing logic, and no understanding of the environment.

Here is the key point.

The better signal is not fear itself.

The better signal is the reversion from fear.

I don’t want to buy simply because everyone is scared.

I want to see evidence that fear is starting to break.

There is a massive difference between:

“People are panicking.”

And:

“People were panicking, but now that panic is unwinding.”

One is a falling knife.

The other is the market starting to breathe again.

When fear starts to unwind, when volatility begins to compress, when price is still in an uptrend, now we have something useful.

Now we are not just trying to sound brave.

We are trying to build a conditional probability framework.

That is how technicians should think.

Not “I feel bullish because people are scared.”

More like:

“When this specific set of conditions has appeared in history, what happened next?”

That’s the game.

So here is a simple 3 step framework model to get you thinking more like a research driven investor.

Simple on purpose.

I do not want 37 filters, 14 oscillators, a lunar cycle, and your cousin’s sentiment indicator from Reddit.

That’s how people overfit themselves into fantasy land.

The goal is to stack a few logical conditions together.

The model uses three filters:

1. Elevated Fear

The VIX needs to close above 25.

Again, VIX above 20 happens on more than one third of all trading days. It captures too much noise.

VIX above 25 is more meaningful.

It says we are not just dealing with normal market annoyance.

We are dealing with legitimate stress.

2. Reversion From Fear

The 3-day rate of change in the VIX needs to be -10% or lower.

Translation for normal people:

The VIX spiked, but now it is falling hard enough to show fear is starting to unwind.

That’s the whole point.

Do not just buy fear at its peak.

Wait for fear to crack.

This is where the edge starts to show up.

3. Trend Filter

The S&P 500 needs to be above its 200-day moving average.

This is the environmental or regime filter as some may say.

A Bull Market pullback and a structural Bear Market are not the same animal.

They may look similar for a few days, but they behave very differently over time.

In a Bull Market, fear spikes often become opportunities.

In a Bear Market, fear spikes can become trap doors.

The 200-day moving average is not magic.

It’s not perfect.

But it is a simple way to ask:

“Are we buying fear inside an uptrend, or are we buying fear inside a broken market?”

That question matters.

The Model In Action

Live Chart Example of The Model - Latest Signal Was April 2026

Here’s where it gets interesting.

If you buy every time VIX is above 20, the 60-day forward return improves versus the baseline, but the volatility and drawdown risk also rise.

Same idea with VIX above 25.

Same idea with VIX above 30.

The higher the VIX threshold, the better the average forward return tends to look.

But the trade path can still be brutal.

That’s the part most people ignore.

A strategy can have good average returns but it’s nearly impossible to sit through.

The “Hostile Model,” which combines elevated fear, reversion from fear, and the 200-day trend filter, had a different profile.

Over a 60-day forward window, the refined model produced:

• Mean return around +6.97%

• Standard deviation around 5.65%

• Positive returns 88.9% of the time

• Worst 60-day return around -7.6%

• Zero instances with a loss greater than 10%

Now compare that with simply buying VIX above 30.

Naive VIX above 30 had a similar mean return around +6.39%, but the worst case was about -30.8%, with much higher volatility.

That’s the whole lesson.

The model does not massively improve the average return.

It improves the ride and cuts down the left tail.

And in markets, avoiding the left tail is often where the real money is made.

Anybody can say they are a long-term investor when the chart is going up and to the right.

The real test is whether your process keeps you from getting emotionally and financially wrecked when the market punches you in the mouth.

Most investors focus on upside.

Professionals spend a lot of time thinking about downside.

The goal isn’t just finding opportunities.

It’s avoiding situations that can seriously damage your portfolio.

This framework improves both the probability profile and the downside profile relative to the market baseline.

That’s what makes it useful.

Not because it predicts the future but because it improves the odds.

Think of it like poker.

VIX above 25 is one card.

Volatility falling sharply is another card.

The market above its 200-day moving average is another card.

None of them are magic individually.

Together, they create a stronger hand.

That’s how quantitative investing should work.

Not certainty but better probabilities driven by quantitative research.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

I covered this entire study in this week’s Thompson Two Cents Live.

I walked through the VIX data, the failure of the naive “buy fear” approach, the 3-step framework, and the honest caveats behind the model.

You can watch the full episode here:

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

Follow Me On Twitter (X)

Follow Me on StockTwits

Throw a rock and you'll hit someone who says "man, if I only held onto that stock."

Everyone's got the one that got away.

The position they talked themselves out of at exactly the wrong time.

And in the world of trend following, that's a cardinal sin.

Let the winners run. We've all heard it.

But most people stop right there.

Because if we're being real….they only know the cliché.

They haven't put in the reps or developed a framework worth sharing.

It's simply a bumper sticker without the execution.

So let's get into it.

Here is a simple 3-Step Framework to Help You Stay In Your Trades.

This sounds obvious.

It isn't.

"Know your time frame" is one of those things people say and then immediately ignore when the market gets choppy.

But it's the most important psychological decision you make before you ever enter a trade.

Here's why.

A short-term trader and a long-term investor can look at the same instrument and come to opposite conclusions.

And both can be right.

The problem is mixing time frames without knowing it.

A stock can be great on a long-term basis and still drop 20% in the short term.

If you don't know which game you're playing, that 20% will shake you out of a position that was right all along.

Without a defined time frame?

Every pullback looks like a reason to sell. Every single time.

So let's start with the weekly chart. Zoom out.

Weekly Candles

On a five-year weekly view, those individual red candles barely register.

The long drawdowns look significant in the moment, but from 30,000 feet, the trend is clear.

If this is your time frame, a 9% pullback probably shouldn't move you out of your position.

Zoom into the daily and the picture changes.

Daily Candles

You can see the uptrend channel, the recent pullback, and the V-shaped recovery.

For a intermediate-term trader, this chart might have you using a horizontal support level as your line in the sand.

65 Minute Candles (6 In A Day)

Drop down to the 65-minute chart and it's a completely different world.

You could have been short during the selloff and repositioning long on the reversal.

But don't be looking at the 65-minute chart every day if you have a year-long holding period.

That's the trap.

Here's a simple guideline….take it as you will, just a frame of reference:

• Short-term (days–weeks): 65-minute & Daily Charts

• Medium-term (weeks–months): Daily & Weekly Charts

• Long-term (months–years): Weekly & Monthly Charts

Know which game you're playing. Then align your chart to match.

This is the bread and butter of managing a position.

Think about it for a second.

Seriously. Take a second and think.

If you're truly data-driven, you're not the one making the exit decision.

The market is.

That's the whole point of trailing stops.

You hand your decision-making over to price, and price tells you when to leave.

Most people struggle with this because they want to be predictive instead of reactive.

They want to call the top.

But ask yourself - did your research make the market gap up?

No. The market made the market gap up.

If the tweet mattered, price would change.

If the earnings mattered, price would change.

Trust the tape.

Once again…many say it. Few actually do it.

There are hundreds of trailing stop methods out there. Here are 3.

Example 1 — Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMA

The 30-period EMA on a 65-minute chart is essentially a five-day moving average.

If we're above the five-day, stay around and play.

Every day since this rally started, SPY has closed above it.

The EMA trails price upward as the market climbs, so your stop rises with it.

When price closes decisively below it, you're out - no decision required.

EMA vs. SMA: the EMA weighs recent prices more heavily, so it's more reactive.

Neither is better - one is just quicker.

Example 2 — Anchored VWAP

Anchored VWAP takes the concept a step further by adding a volume dimension.

AVWAP

You anchor it to a pivotal point.

A pivot low, a gap up, a key date and it trails from there.

The Pivot Low AVWAP anchored to the bottom of the selloff and the Gap Up AVWAP anchored to the recovery both serve as dynamic support.

As long as price holds above them, the trend is intact.

Example 3 — Price Channel (30-Period Low)

This uses the rolling lowest price over the past 30 periods — roughly a five-day low.

Price Channel (Lows)

Your stop is simple.

If price breaks below that level, you exit.

In a strong uptrend this rarely happens - the channel climbs gradually as new lows run off the look-back window.

Like I said.

There are plenty of other tools out there.

The specific method matters less than the discipline of using one.

Pick what fits your style.

Pick what you actually understand.

And stick with it.

There's no holy grail.

Trailing stops tell you when to exit.

The weight of evidence tells you how aggressive to be while you're in.

Should you be adding to positions? Sitting tight? Just letting your stops ride?

There are plenty of ways to do this — here's a simple framework to start with.

Trend — Price vs. the 30-Week Moving Average

Is price above the 30-week MA?

That's the long-term regime filter.

That's the game we want to be playing.

Breadth — % of S&P 500 Above the 200-Day MA

60% or more above their 200-day MA means broad participation.

When you go fishing for stocks, the odds are in your favor.

Below 50%? You're swinging at pitches that are likely already in downtrends.

Momentum — Cyclicals vs. Defensives

Are offensive sectors leading?

Tech, discretionary, and industrials leading means institutions are betting on growth.

When utilities, staples, and healthcare take over - that's a defensive rotation and a warning sign.

This is one reason I was cautious early in 2026. Leadership was defensive.

Sentiment — VIX Level

Below 20 is a low-fear environment.

One spike above 25 doesn't change the regime.

A sustained stay above 25 might.

Credit Spreads — HYG vs. LQD

The spread between high-yield and investment-grade bonds tells you whether the bond market sees elevated risk.

Tight spreads = green light.

Widening spreads = the smart money is getting nervous before equities figure it out.

The Scoring Rule

3 or more greens → Keep trading your process, consider adding on pullbacks

Fewer than 3 → Tighten stops, don't add new capital

All red → Go defensive, wait for the evidence to shift

Just a simple framework — there are plenty of ways to skin the cat

Bull markets don't die because of bad news.

They die when the weight of evidence shifts.

Until that happens?

The default position is long.

But staying long is the hard part and now you have a framework for it.

Know the time frame of the game you're playing.

Let price tell you when to exit.

Weigh the evidence weekly.

Do those three things and you'll stop leaving winners on the table.

Anyway, that's my two cents.

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

Follow Me On Twitter (X)

Follow Me on StockTwits

The market’s on a heater.

13 straight up days for the Nasdaq.

12 of the last 13 for the S&P 500.

At this point, even Helen Keller is out here sharing bullish data points.

If you need me to write something profound this weekend to explain it… you’re probably looking in the wrong place.

No amount of polished words can manufacture a trend.

This is price doing what it does.

For some reason people think the fancy words or thoughts are doing the work.

They’re not.

The market is.

Price is the scoreboard.

It’s doing all the talking right now.

So this week I’ll keep it simple.

Less words. More charts.

I rip through 20 charts in 20 minutes.

All Gas No Brakes.

Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Go check out last week’s post and get on the list.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

Follow Me On Twitter (X)

Follow Me on StockTwits

Sign Up For Thompson’s Two Cents

We’ve already done the hard part.

A couple weeks ago, we walked through the “Hold Your Nose and Buy” setup.

Not a prediction, a process.

Then we followed it up with “Set the Stop and Chill.” 

Entry defined, risk defined, now let price do the work.

That’s the progression.

That’s the progression.

Analysis begins with logical frameworks we can measure data against.

Not cherry-picked data points to fit a narrative.

That’s what the signal that got us back in the market is showing.

And it’s what this recovery framework is built to track.

A way to consistently evaluate whether the market is actually transitioning… or just reacting.

Because getting the entry right is one thing.

Staying aligned with what comes after is where this either compounds or gets fumbled.

Let’s get into it.

Markets typically bottom through a sequence:

Capitulation, thrust, follow-through.

We’ve started that process. But the quality of each step matters.

We got the washout.

Breadth reached oversold levels and reversed.

That’s what triggered the entry.

The reversion from oversold, not the oversold condition itself.

But zooming out, this wasn’t a true panic.

Prior major lows saw a surge in new lows and forced selling.

This time, that level of pressure just wasn’t there.

So while we had enough capitulation to create opportunity, we didn’t fully clear the deck.

That leaves the door open for overhead supply and a more gradual recovery process.

We saw the same thing in volatility.

The VIX spiked, then began to reverse. That’s constructive. You don’t buy fear, you buy the reversion from fear.

But it’s not fully resolved.

Volatility is still elevated relative to calmer environments.

Ideally, we continue to see it compress and undercut recent lows.

That would signal a more stable backdrop.

For now, it’s improving. Not complete.

Short-term breadth has improved. That’s clear.

But when you zoom out across timeframes, it’s still lacking:

Participation hasn’t meaningfully expanded into the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day measures…that follow through piece is key…

Under the hood, it’s still mixed:

• Semis are strong but Software is weak…

• Discretionary is bouncing, not leading.

• Financials are messy.

• Healthcare is breaking down.

• Industrials are my favorite right now….but it’s selective.

That’s not broad confirmation.

That’s a market still working through a reset.

This is the phase that matters now.

We’re no longer trying to catch a bottom.

We did that.

Now the market has to prove it.

Follow-through is what separates a tradable bounce from a durable recovery.

What we want to see:

• Higher lows on pullbacks

• Continued expansion in breadth

• Strength spreading across sectors, not just isolated pockets

• Fewer failed breakouts, more sustained moves

Right now, we’ve had good progress.

But it’s been good, not great.

And that typically leads to a more bumpy, back-and-fill type recovery, not a straight line higher.

The bulls got off the mat.

That matters.

But they’re not winning the fight yet.

We didn’t get full capitulation.
We didn’t get a powerful breadth thrust.
And the follow-through is still developing.

So we stay in process.

If the market continues to prove it, we can do more.

If it doesn’t, we already know where we’re wrong.

That’s the game.

Anyway, that’s my two cents.

🎥 Thompson Two Cents Live

Check it out.

🚀 Throw it on 1.5x speed and let it rip.

👍 Give it a like. It’s the easiest way to show me some love.  

The Sunday Stalk List

Tomorrow, I’ll break down more of what I’m buying in the Sunday Stalk List.

If you want clean charts, clear setups, and tactical insights, this one’s for you.

It hits your inbox every Sunday so you know exactly what to stalk for the week ahead.

Go check out last week’s post and get on the list.

Cheers,

Larry Thompson, CMT CPA

Follow Me On Twitter (X)

Follow Me on StockTwits

Sign Up For Thompson’s Two Cents