Generally speaking nothing has changed dramatically, and all eyes remain on Wednesday’s FOMC, which traders seem to be anticipating. Bunny fingers time. “…drama…”

Market Snapshot

The futures have changed contract and wish to apologise for any alarm caused by the resulting appearance of a gap.

• SPX 7,619.98, down 37.00 (0.48%). The gap has been filled on the rally. Full read below.

• RUT 2,892.24. Drop, pause, and the next drop starting. Full read below.

• BTC 76,838.42, down 1,336.59 (1.71%). Making a run for the range low. Full read below.

• ES 7,653.75. Price only today, see the roll below.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,285.50. Price only today.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,522. Price only today.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,875.0. Price only today.

• Crude (CL) 103.42, up 1.53 (1.50%). No read today.

• Gold 4,315.0, down 25.0 (0.58%). No read today.

VIX 17.81, up 0.70 (4.09%).

VIX could remain elevated for the 3rd consecutive day without retreating behind the 16 level.

The Futures Roll – Gets me every time, on continuous futures.

Futures markets have rolled on the indexes overnight, so a fair few people may have panicked a little after the Asian reopening of the futures, seeing what looked like a huge gap up.

The gap was real. The move wasn’t.

Anyway, the extended hours on the ETFs show a more realistic view of the markets selling off overnight.

SPX – The gap has been filled on the rally.

Over on the SPX chart the gap has been filled on the rally, and with the premarket dropping like a collective brick in the ocean, we are likely to open outside of the range we have been eyeing.

Will this move be the one that starts my elusive 10%er?

RUT – As always, looks a little clearer.

Drop, pause, and the next drop is starting overnight.

Crypto, BTC – Might be making a run for a range low break.

BTC also looks like it might be making a run for a range low break today.

Wall of Wins

And of course the community is reporting some small wins despite the yoyo day. Well done team.

• Ross M. A $430 win on futures, running the futures version of the system.

• Don E. Closed SPX LP for 50%.

• Scott K. BO1 on SPX, transformed to a 5 cent profit, closed outside the profit window for a break even day. Given the yoyo day, that’s a great result.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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It’s a new morn and a new week, and the markets are gapping down already, 50ish points in the premarket, and holding those lows, suggesting further bearish moves. My confirmation bias is once again roaring and the weekend bears are paying nicely.

Generally speaking I could not be happier. Unless there was a 100+ move lower, but that is besides the point. If you say something for long enough it might come true lol.

Seriously though, a one day move, of which we have seen many bear possibilities this month and last month come and go. It’s that elusive beast of 10% in 10 to 15 days that I’m looking for.

The STA, Stock Trader’s Almanac, is circling back at me for a timing situation of the seasonality combined with mid terms, and the dozen other things I’ve been banging on about for what seems like far too long again. But then I’m allowed to, once a year, as seasonality dictates.

See the bear be the bear. Which I’m sure you remember from Caddyshack… or was that ball? Anyways…

Market Snapshot

The VIX has risen 12.49% and wishes it to be known that it had raised concerns previously.

• ES 7,605.75, down 55.00 (0.72%). Gapping down and holding those lows.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,459, down 117 (0.22%). Lower with it.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,892.6, down 12.1 (0.42%). Firmly in bear mode. Full read below.

• BTC 77,703.48, up 903.63 (1.18%). Still grinding a range. Full read below.

• Crude (CL) 103.54, up 3.55 (3.55%). No read today.

• Gold 4,351.4, down 38.6 (0.88%). No read today.

• NazQuack (NQ) 28,891.50.

Looking at the snap overview, Nasdaq is leading the bear charge lower, given that AI was effectively given a clobbering over the weekend by basically AI tech leaders and owners alike, saying restraints are needed to slow things down before we see some sort of Terminator uprising.

VIX 17.83, up 1.98 (12.49%).

The VIX is aligning with the gap. Let’s see if we can see 16 hold for more than 2 days this time…

SPX – Still sticking with the clear chart.

Looking at the descending channel we have been observing for a while, and with the markets gapping lower on the weekend news, this will be the first time that price has not reached the upper boundary level before turning lower.

The big question is, will the bear move see any follow through movement, or will this be a slightly wider double bottom?

I am of course in favor of the bear scenario. I’ll keep things simple and use 7,600 as my bull bear over under.

RUT – Simple to assess.

We are firmly in bear mode, the system is bearish, and there’s loads of free space below, down to 2,800.

Crypto, BTC – Grinds a range, still.

I’ve updated the chart slightly, marking off bear breakout and bull breakout zones.

I’d prefer the bear breakout as I’m already bearish, but I am not married to it in the same way that I am with the stock indexes.

A bull break will be a nice push above the larger range we have previously noted. The bear break continues the already bearish as resistance narrative previously discussed.

Wall of Wins

A HUGE shout out to James, who continues to crush the Premium Popper trading and is steadily growing his account. Awesome work.

• James D. Posted his account for the week just gone. A small account trading only one option, and he calls that a win. Well ding fecking dong.

• James D. Also a RUT Premium Popper win.

• Scott K. An interesting Friday. Took the RUT bear BO1 for a $2 credit with the short leg at 2,910, then removed the take profit and let it expire for a full win. Also took the SPX Bull BO1. Being out for most of the day, put on a transformer that gave a worst case of a 5 cent credit to cover commissions. It ended up inside the profit tent for approximately a $200 per contract win.

Scott also had an excellent finish to the week while doing other things, and landed a nice transformed risk free bullseye inside the profit tent for a $200 bonus win. Boom.

Awesome work the both of you.

Fun Fact:

The fear gauge’s very first print looked a lot like this morning Thirty-six years on, it sits six tenths of a point from where it started

The volatility index arrived in 1993 and was back-calculated to January 1990. The oldest value in the official daily series, dated 2 January 1990, reads 17.24. It trades 17.83 this morning. Three and a half decades of innovation, and the fear gauge has travelled six tenths of a point.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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Well, it turned out that Thursday’s news did indeed move price lower, and now we come to Friday where we have another news item which could also shove things around.

New low movements on everything over that Naz. Tech was held higher by a new Apple product, not seen that for a while, but the fold screen does look super sexy. As always not first to market. I just wish they would put a decent zoom on the cameras, I’m sick of zoom envy when I’m with my Samsung buddies lol.

Also, 11 September. So let’s light a candle and spare a moment to remember.

I always feel the markets collectively hold their breath too.

Market Snapshot

The VIX has been informed that ES is 40 points higher. It has acknowledged receipt.

• SPX 7,613.33, down 1.58 (0.02%). A V pattern at the range lows. Full read below.

• RUT 2,890.95. Firmly in bear trending mode. Full read below.

• ES 7,635.50, up 33.50 (0.44%). A nicely overnight pump.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,354, up 265 (0.51%). Pumping with it.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,298.00.

• Gold 4,397.6, up 39.1 (0.90%). No read today.

• BTC 77,398.93. No read today.

VIX 17.45, down 0.40 (2.24%).

We are seeing a nicely overnight pump, and the VIX is not moving down to the same magnitude that the S&P is moving up overnight. ES is currently 40 points up. I suspect the news will push it back down.

Crude 100.00, down 3.93 (3.78%).

No read today, but it’s sat exactly on the round number having been as high as 104.46, and it’s the biggest mover on the board by a distance.

SPX – Ripe for something new to potentially develop.

SPX swings do look ripe for something new to potentially develop. At the range lows we can see a lovely V pattern entry, in the same way we’ve seen the last few times we were at the lows.

Premarket we are up around 40 points looking at the futures, so cash may well open 40 points higher. All depending on the reaction from the 8:30 ET news.

I remain bearish, and no amount of “Trump Mid Term Bribes” appears to be able to pump these markets higher. At least not yet.

RUT – Confidently bearish and firmly in bear trending mode.

RUT also remains confidently bearish and firmly in bear trending mode. Similarly at a level that it could turn off or burn through.

The Premium Poppers

Pretty much done on SPX before the day was started.

A nice early VWAP breakout was taken pre-market, transformed it, and enjoyed myself the rest of the day.

Another slightly discretionarily timed RUT just after the open, mainly because the premiums seemed quite phat compared to previous weeks and months in this low IV environment.

A mid morning surprise pump higher, but ultimately transformed while waiting it out.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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The daily moves are looking alive still, but the intraday stock index moves are a little all over the place still.

It’s not a big deal for the Poppers and the swings. As long as we don’t see prices move against us in a serious way, then everything works out. It’s still just frustrating to sit through.

I am still gleefully rubbing my bear mittens awaiting the tumble. There may be a little maniacal cackle.

Market Snapshot

The daily moves and the intraday moves have been unable to reach agreement. Both parties have returned to their positions.

• SPX 7,636.36, down 37.16 (0.48%). Upper range to lower range. Full read below.

• RUT 2,921.23. Broken out of the smaller range. Full read below.

• BTC 77,941.97, down 342.01 (0.44%). Meandering sideways. Full read below.

• ES 7,651.75, up 3.75 (0.05%). No read today.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,402.25. No read today.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,515, up 42 (0.08%). No read today.

• VIX 16.50, up 0.03 (0.18%). Above 16.

• Crude (CL) 97.59, up 0.92 (0.95%). No read today.

• Gold 4,436.5, down 10.7 (0.24%). No read today.

RUT moved in a straight line, no muss no fuss. SPX moved in the UK session and meandered most of the US session.

SPX – Still moving from the upper range to the lower range.

SPX prices are still moving from the upper range to the lower range, with bear pulse bars along the way.

RUT – Bearish too, having broken out of a smaller range.

RUT remains bearish too, having broken out of a smaller range. 2,900 to 2,920 is now support, and news just premarket could decide if it’s the nudge it needs to drop through it, or turn from it.

By the time you’re reading this you’ll already know which way that went.

Crypto, BTC

Nothing really to update.

Price is still meandering sideways, neither pushing lower or higher with any conviction.

The Premium Poppers – Yesterday’s Poppers were again fun.

The Tuesday 1DTE trade got the day rolling for Wednesday, along with what could have been a premarket continuation, followed by a 1st BO. Both of which managed to secure some profits too.

But the fly in my ointment, which reduced my overall profit, was the 3rd BO hitting a loss.

Overall a profit secured for the day.

Wall of Wins

And as always, the community locked in profits.

One note for anyone new here. Where an entry just says a profit or a win, that means 50% of max profit, which is the default target.

From the community

• Vijay. In on a RUT call spread, out at 50%, double size based on the EA. Then in on an SPX bear spread and out at 50% on that too.

• RJ M. In SPX just after Vijay’s RUT call spread, out of SPX for now, then out at 50% on the last one. In and out, in and out scalping, like pinball.

• Bill H. Out on the RUT call spread. Crazy how it held premium, but we fell so fast at the open. Finished 3 for 3 and a butterfly sitting at 7,645 for free.

• Christian F. SPX bear spread, 50% profit.

• SLP. RUT still working out and flat.

• James D. One of many trades filled for a profit, think RUT. And then an SPX position too.

• David T. Missed an SPX entry that morning, thankfully, which would have whipsawed against him a bar later and probably stopped him out. Made 53% on the RUT BO3 in about 25 minutes.

• Don E. Created transformer and butterfly trades for both SPX and RUT and locked in a minimum $0.50 profit on each. RUT bought 2 at 2,940, sold 4 at 2,945, bought 2 at 2,950. SPX bought 2 at 7,640, sold 4 at 7,645, bought 2 at 7,650.

• Richard H. SPX BO1 SS7640 ATM win for $1, transformed into a butterfly. Thought it might turn around again, but just squeaked in with a bit of time decay helping.

• Jenny D. Got $1.50 and $1.65 on the RUT 1st and 3rd BO, and $1 on the SPX 1st BO. Still waiting on the 3rd BO and suspecting a small loss.

Jenny, that 3rd BO was likely a small loss, which is exactly the same as mine. Bam. That’s how you do it.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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Wednesday already, in another not very exciting shortened week.

The bear moves continued on the IB break, as we thought in the morning analysis briefing.

Market Snapshot

The market has again declined to move dramatically in either direction, and has asked that it not be pressed further on the matter.

• SPX 7,673.52, down 45.08 (0.58%). Still ranging, still in bear mode. Full read below.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,750, down 58 (0.11%). Looks to be leading the charge lower.

• ES 7,679.75, up 1.50 (0.02%). Barely there.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,960.1, down 2.1 (0.07%). Also barely there.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,549.25. No read today.

• Gold 4,445.6, up 45.6 (1.04%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 94.68, up 0.43 (0.46%). No read today.

• BTC 79,627.86. No read today.

The Dow looks to be leading the charge lower, with still a tiny 0.11% to be seen, which is still bigger than the ES at 0.02% and RTY at 0.07%. There is often a leader and a laggard in these moves, so that is an estimated guess on my part, and as I’m biased to the bear side I’m seeing YM futures out in front as a good thing.

Overall these moves are super tight still, and I will be enjoying the day we get these markets opening up for more than a day.

VIX 15.87, up 0.16 (1.02%).

VIX, my weathercock, remains elevated, and I’m keeping my eye on 16 again.

Seasonality

Thinking back to last week’s Stock Trader’s Almanac notes about the first half of the month being historically flat to bullish, and as we come towards the middle of the month, the slow roll over to a fast bear could be starting. Fingers crossed.

SPX and RUT – Still in a range, and still in bear mode.

SPX and RUT swings remain in a range and in bear mode, so nothing new to report here.

The Premium Poppers

Not reported on for a day or three, and seeing another good day.

I was once again enjoying a little early premarket entry, using the futures to trigger my cash entry on the global exchange, which transformed fast.

Then the usual 1st BO and a VWAP retest. Both inconvenienced by being mistimed in this intraday sloppy market, but with an eye for transforming them, just a little patience is needed.

$415 locked in. Two profit targets, had they landed, at $915 and $1,420.

Wall of Wins

And of course, as usual, the community is popping those wins too.

• Ross M. A real quick bang to start the week, looking for whatever shapes bearish today. Closed a short on MES1! at 7,694.00 from an average of 7,714.25, for +$101.25 realised.

• RJ M. Ended up scalping the SPX trigger, not liking this bounce, plus only half size, plus at the shop just trying to get the computer going.

• Bill H. Ditto. Win’s a win, took 35%.

• Zach. Took the SPX ORB20 win. Has yet to incorporate the butterfly.

• Don E. Lose one, win one. Manual exit on the SPX bear when price closed above VWAP, for a small loss. Won the RUT LP Bull BO for 40%. Sets RUT close orders more conservatively, because RUT sometimes doesn’t honour limit and stop orders.

Ross, love it, awesome work. Looks like that was right off the premarket highs too. Classic range reversal setup.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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Well, it’s been a nice and relaxing long weekend after Labor Day.

Anyway, waking up to the bear wanting to have some fun.

Market Snapshot

The VIX has once again been observed in the vicinity of 16. It has made no application to cross, and no application is anticipated.

• SPX 7,718.60, down 29.11 (0.38%). Friday peaked at the range highs. Full read below.

• ES 7,690.00, down 25.00 (0.32%). More than a nibble past the lows.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,972, down 303 (0.57%). The same.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,486.00. Making an engulfing bar attempt already.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,956.7, down 17.1 (0.58%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 94.45, up 3.23 (3.54%). No read today.

• Gold 4,434.3, down 42.9 (0.96%). No read today.

• BTC 78,328.54. No read today.

VIX 15.84, up 1.32 (9.09%).

Looking at the markets overview, the first thing I notice is VIX taking a leap into the abyss as it tries to hurdle that elusive 16 level for more than a day. That is once again a big jump for a small ES move overnight, 30 or so points between Sunday open as I’m typing this. Definitely a few bears are nervous.

Inside bars

Inside bars galore, which is not surprising given the long weekend. So far we are seeing more than a nibble past the lows on ES and YM. NQ is making an engulfing bar attempt already, and I’m suspecting my usual first thoughts of the side the bar breaks being a false direction, as it’s more than a nibble. I may have to do a more in depth study on this and get some hard data. How far is too far, and so on.

Everything else

Everything else seems to be in the Minutia of the grind before the pop n drop, and views have not had a change in views, setups or opinions.

Long live the grind!

SPX – Stripping back the Tag n Turn tools again for a clearer picture.

Over on the SPX swings charts, and stripping back the Tag n Turn tools again to see a clearer picture of what price is doing, you can clearly see a larger range in place, with Friday peaking at the range highs.

Confirmation bias is only a problem when you haven’t noticed.

Of course this fits nicely with my hard core bear narrative of the moment, so I have to acknowledge that I am a little, ok somewhat, ok really confirmation biased lol. But hey, at least I know it, and with good reasons to be.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Want to trade ‘OPM’ ?

Don’t risk your own capital.... Get funded to trade 0DTE and other options strategies...

Click HERE to discover your funding options

NFP is out and we could see this release spin prices around and around again.

And as is usually the case when I’m holding such a strong bearish stance, I am genuinely baffled to fuck! I am again reminded of the saying, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

It’s really time to get back to the basics and mechanics and reclaim my sanity.

Market Snapshot

• ES 7,758.25, up 9.00 (0.12%). No read today.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,651.00. No read today.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,698, down 22 (0.04%). No read today.

• Gold 4,515.2, down 5.1 (0.11%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 90.87, down 0.80 (0.87%). No read today.

• VIX 14.22, down 0.09 (0.63%). No read today.

• BTC 81,101.98. No read today.

Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,968.1, up 0.8 (0.03%).

The only chart that is really behaving seemingly normally is Russel. Definitively bearish. A one day rally and green overall doesn’t change that.

Expert Insights

The August employment report lands at 08:30 ET. Consensus is 55,000 payrolls against a prior of minus 23,000, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%. The forecast range runs all the way from 102,000 down to minus 25,000, which is unusually wide, and is exactly why a release like this can spin prices around and around.

The part worth knowing is that the reaction has flipped this cycle. Through 2024 and 2025 a weak number meant cuts and a relief rally. Right now a strong August print is the hawkish outcome, and a soft one is what takes September hike risk off the table. Anyone trading last year’s playbook this morning has it backwards.

Meanwhile, Poppers continue to smash….

Fun Fact

The initial August payroll figure has been revised lower four years in a row. So whatever prints at half past one this afternoon, the odds are it isn’t the number we end up with.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Want to trade ‘OPM’ ?

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Crash cancelled again!

I suspect that we will see a narrow ranging day ahead of Friday NFP, which is not a huge leap to conclude given that we see this grind continuing, and something needs to shake this market loose and get a move going. The daily averages are exceedingly low, which just makes for a frustrating experience to live through.

Market Snapshot

The VIX has withdrawn its position of yesterday, and has asked that no significance be attached to either the position or the withdrawal.

• SPX 7,666.60, up 35.13 (0.46%). A tight narrow range on the 10 min. Full read below.

• ES 7,672.50, up 3.25 (0.04%). No read today.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,160.50. No read today.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,147, up 11 (0.02%). No read today.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,955.2, down 2.8 (0.09%). No read today.

• Gold 4,467.2, up 32.9 (0.74%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 90.02, down 0.61 (0.67%). No read today.

• BTC 77,775.18. No read today.

VIX 15.19, down 1.14 (6.98%).

VIX has firmly retreated, like a hand off a hot pan.

SPX – Dropping to the 10 min for the Tag n Turn swings for a change.

Dropping to SPX 10 min for the Tag n Turn swings for a change, we can see that there is a tight narrow range. It would typically be worth waiting for a breakout in either direction. The PnF has that range marked, with the support level at 7,630 and the resistance level at 7,690.

The system is currently bearish, so a bear bias is expected at this stage.

ADD is also at a bullish extreme, suggesting a bear bias as the line of least resistance.

September Seasonality – Pondering the first half of the month, or the second.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, September’s record going back to 1950 is a decidedly bearish one, and the weakness builds through the month rather than arriving at the start. Across all years the major averages have tended to finish somewhere around 0.6% to 0.8% lower, with most of the damage after the midpoint.

Midterm years are worse at the back end. The S&P and the Dow have actually held up better than their longer run pattern through roughly the first ten to twelve trading days, and then handed it back quickly. Into the final sessions, midterm NASDAQ and Russell 1000 have finished nearer 1.6% and 1.8% lower.

And we are once again pondering if there will be a move of significance in the first half of the month, or the second half of the month.

The data suggests a bear move. I’m in no doubt it’s going to happen. The fly in the ointment is the when and how much.

Wall of Wins

Despite the annoyance of the markets, the Premium Poppers once again pulled some premiums in, and the community again scooped a bag full. Well done all.

• Scott K. Took the SPX 1st BO this morning. Closed early for a 30% win.

• Bill B. Took the SPX 1st BO this morning. Closed for a 50% win.

• Bill B. Took the RUT 1st BO this morning. Closed early for a 15% win.

• Bill B. Took RUT VWAP. Closed for a 50% win.

• ehvpsd. 50% wins on both SPX and RUT this morning.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Want to trade ‘OPM’ ?

Don’t risk your own capital.... Get funded to trade 0DTE and other options strategies...

Click HERE to discover your funding options

Yesterday we saw that failure to [bunny fingers] bounce like the markets have been doing for what seems like most of this year, and push hard lower through the premarket, and with a little bullish push in the morning which I’m fairly sure most folks would have seen as the recovery pattern again.

The Premium Popper setups and software got the bull pushes on SPX before the eventual midday u-turn back to bearish. And a nice haul can be seen on the Wall of Wins from the community.

Market Snapshot

The VIX has passed 16 without notice or consultation. Affected parties will be informed in due course.

All the main stock indexes are pushing lower overnight.

• SPX 7,631.47, down 54.67 (0.71%). Below its 2 week vwap. Full read below.

• ES 7,622.00, down 25.50 (0.33%). Asian session range, then a clear break down and out. Full read below.

• BTC 76,566.39, down 1.10%. The crown continues to develop. Full read below.

• NazQuack (NQ) 28,946.50. Pushing lower overnight with the rest of them.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,736, down 111 (0.21%). Same.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,917.7, down 8.5 (0.29%). Same again.

• Crude (CL) 90.42, down 0.26 (0.29%). No read today.

• VIX 16.80, up 0.47 (2.88%).

VIX smashed through 16 and is nudging at 17. This does look like the start of something, and could well spike to 20 and beyond if the correction I’ve been calling for finally develops.

Gold 4,355.7, down 20.0 (0.46%).

Gold is making a guest appearance, as we are now seeing a dip back into the zone I was assessing for the potential real push higher. More in the future as the patterns develop, but the location is now good.

SPX – Stripping the main tools off again to get a clearer view of price.

Looking at the details for the swings, and once again stripping the main tools off to get a clearer view of price, you can see SPX is below its 2 week vwap, which would suggest a trending price movement of the bearish persuasion. Above 7,650 and we can start calling for that bear stall and more meandering.

The PnF charts are showing a clear breach of support, and a solid move below 7,600 signals the clear break down. The gap at the open should clear that level for me.

ES Futures – Adding the futures into the mix for a change again.

Mainly as I’m prepping for the 24hr data to match up with the 24hr trading on the global exchange. Right now I’m using the futures as a proxy for the cash data. The patterns will be the same, the numbers slightly different.

What we can see here is a nice Asian session range and a clear break down and out. Arguably a break of the UK ORB levels on 20 and 60 suggests a bear move. Price is below the current day’s vwap bands, which also suggests a bearish trending move.

PnF also shows a clear break of support, with the added data view compared to the cash version.

Crypto, BTC – The rounding top, or crown as some folks may call it.

Over on BTC the rounding top, or crown as some folks may call it, is continuing to develop nicely and is approaching the first assessment level. A push through here and the 75,000 level could lead to a quick drop lower into the target 1 zone, and potentially into the target 2 zone. Simples.

Trading the range from the range highs to the range lows.

Sentiment – A handful of stocks have been driving the indexes higher.

Over on the sentiment charts we can see clear market participation flipping from the number of stocks holding the 20, 50 and 200 period moving average, to pushing below these levels.

Below the 50 floor level. Below the 40 floor level. Below the 58 ceiling level.

It turns out the rest of the market has been quietly voting the other way since April.

These have been the general market participation floors since April this year, so while a handful of stocks have been driving the stock indexes higher, it can now be seen that the larger market participation may push the whole thing lower.

And of course we are officially in correction season. Mid terms, bear cycles, etc etc.

So the bigger question now is, will we see something in the first or second half of the month?

Wall of Wins

…And of course lastly but by no means least, the Premium Popper Wall of Wins is full again. Well done everyone.

• Don E. Closed SPX Bull for 50%.

• Don E. Took a put credit spread when price bounced up from VWAP, for 40%.

• Richard H. SPX BO1 SS7645 win transformed to a butterfly for $0.6c profit.

• Scott K. 2 trades. Took the first BO on SPX, bullish spread, closed for 44%. Had first taken the 1st BO on RUT for a bearish spread. It blew past the stop loss without triggering, but ended up finally closing for 57%, so not really a win.

• Jenny D. Closed 1st BO on SPX for 54% and 1st BO on RUT for 60%. Currently upside down on the SPX 3rd BO, having missed the opportunity to close early after the bounce off the VWAP. Will be just short of breakeven for the day if the full loss is taken there.

• Bill B. 2W and 1L for the day. Got the SPX 1st BO and a bounce off VWAP. Cut the SPX 3rd BO for a small loss. Dollar positive for the day.

Scott, that one counts. The stop not being honored on RUT is a known liquidity issue, and a little bit of good fortune kept you in for the win.

It’s called the Wall of Wins, but there are lessons in the losses and the errors too, so those still count. I appreciate the openness and the transparency.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

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Well, I was waking up this morning expecting the start of yet another [bunny fingers] bull bounce, after seeing prices grind most of yesterday and then lift themselves prior to the close.

We have seen this for what seems like most of this year. The end of day moves negate the early day’s moves, and the overnight recovery move gets started in earnest.

This morning however price has started to tip over and, as Shakespeare once writ, “Is this a Bear Move I see Before Me?” Or was it a dagger? Either way there is blood on the metaphorical street this morning, with the overnight moves pumping lower for a change, breaking the recent pattern.

As you may or may not have noticed I’ve been heavily bearish all through August waiting for September, and doing my best Sean Bean impression. “Bastard!” No, the other one. “Winter Is Coming!” And indeed we are in bear season, and winter looks like it’s nearly here.

Market Snapshot

The market has broken with several months of established practice by falling overnight. No statement has been issued and none is expected.

• ES 7,660.75, down 40.50 (0.53%). Near vertical overnight, and it started right at the European open. Full read below.

• BTC 77,924.98, down on the day. The trade is rolling over still. Full read below.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,942.7, down 16.2 (0.55%). Once again leading the bear charge very firmly, and already back in the vwap 1sd zone.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,259.50, down past 1%. Never made it out of the 1sd bands, and moving from the upper band to the mid band.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,978, down 278 (0.52%). Making the same pattern.

• VIX 15.69, up 0.76 (5.09%). Jumping higher correspondingly. 16 is still my “holy shit, this is it” level.

• Gold 4,426.0, down 71.3 (1.59%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 87.86, up 1.55 (1.80%). No read today.

ES Futures – The overnight moves pumping lower for a change.

ES dropping through the prior swing low, and near the last new all time high. Around 7,650 on ES futures will trip a few things. Lower lows being the obvious one. Prior new all time highs being reclaimed, like a support break or a break back into a range play. Also price moving back into the vwap 1sd zone, which could now suggest a move towards the 7,400 zone.

The stock indexes are looking more bearish as the time goes on.

All in all it’s looking good, as I gleefully run my hands together like Old Fagin.

A quick look at the details of the overnight ES moves shows that it’s a near vertical move and, before I get over excited, or is it too late for that… the near vertical move started right at the European open.

At the time of the screenshot my sanity check was that it was only a 0.5% move, still kind of in that normal range of movement. But sheesh, we have been looking at 0.1 to 0.3% abnormally low volatility moves, so this seems ridiculously massive. As I type, 0.6%, with the Naz just pushing past 1%.

Meanwhile, poppers keep popping….and students are getting paid….

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Crypto, BTC – The trade is rolling over still.

Interestingly, I placed a small trend line, for fun, last week, which was a clone of the leftmost upsloping trendline I used to describe the rounding top last week. All I did was invert it so the angle remained the same but pointing the other way, and then placed it around the last peak.

What we can see is that price has just about nudged it before starting its push lower.

I may have to break the cigars out.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

So we’ve had the last Friday of the month, now we have the last day of the month, where we could see a little to’ing and fro’ing as positions are wound and unwound for the month end accounting shenanigans.

Sadly a black Monday did not appear after Friday’s attempted start of a “good sell off”.

And the news in a line. Shots are once again being fired around Hormuz, while September rate odds moved from a third to well over half. The whole thing is of course sad to see, and the markets are once again giving a rather French meh shrug, taking another puff of the cigarette and swirling a rather vinegary white wine…

Market Snapshot

Apart from that, a pretty stagnant start to the week, although we have the rest of the week to see things spice up a little.

The market has confirmed that today’s behavior is an administrative matter, and should not be interpreted as a view.

• TSLA 348.75, down 6.06 (1.71%). One Mag 7 name does jump out. Full read below.

• BTC 78,368.33. The rounding top continues to round. Full read below.

• ES 7,707.25, down 17.50 (0.23%). Still well under 7,838.50.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,455.50. Sat back below the prior highs.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,472, down 118 (0.22%). Under the prior NATHs.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,975.4, down 2.0 (0.07%). Remains the leader on the bear charge for the moment.

• VIX 15.24, up 0.82 (5.69%). Jumped higher despite there not yet being an overnight sell off, which could well be a precursor to the tone of the day’s moves.

• Crude (CL) 86.19, up 2.75 (3.30%). Reacted more directly on the increased conflict activities.

• Gold 4,499.6, down 4.5 (0.10%). No read today.

TSLA – Gapped lower, meandered back higher, right into prior support.

Instead of the SPX swing, I thought I’d look at a few Mag 7 stocks, and one does jump out at me. TSLA.

A few things are coming together. Prices have gapped lower and meandered back higher through August, right up to the prior support low now acting as resistance.

Same level, new job.

The 2 month VWAP also shows the current levels as the main VWAP level, with price also showing a lovely V entry pattern. The target is a retest of the recent lows, marked at 297.38.

Just as we often discuss in the 6 money making patterns, sell the pullback after a breakout. This qualifies. Let’s see how it plays out.

Crypto, BTC – The rounding top continues to round.

Over on crypto, BTC, we can update the current situation in that we dove?, dive? doved? bah! dug a little deeper on the BTC setup.

The rounding top continues to round after retesting the short zone trigger mentioned last week, and the inside day 2 days ago also provided another low risk opportunity to join the party, in just the same way we have been talking about inside days these past few weeks.

For the moment, the bear moves are developing nicely and a push to the target zone is still looking good.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Well folks, it’s the last Friday of the month. Could be fun. I don’t think we will see a black Friday situation, despite my best wishes…

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Market Snapshot

The VIX is approaching the year’s lows again. This is not to be read as an expression of confidence, and the index has asked that no inference be drawn from it.

• SPX 7,730.99, up 33.21 (0.43%). The breakout has developed and so has the pullback. Full read below.

• ES 7,733.00, up 23.00 (0.30%). Weird and funky again, gap higher then lower, then back up anyway.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,635.25. Same funky session as the rest of them.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,600, down 127 (0.24%). Sat back under the prior NATHs.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 3,018.6, up 5.2 (0.17%). Still under 3,068.4.

• Gold 4,654.8, up 7.0 (0.15%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 83.54, up 1.63 (1.99%). The day’s biggest mover, and no read today.

• VIX 14.50, down 0.72 (4.73%). Back near the lows.

• BTC 80,133.93. Reached the short sale zone. Full read below.

Mr SPX – Little is changing, the breakout has developed and so has the pullback.

The day was a little weird and funky again on the indexes. We did gap higher and then trade lower for the morning as suspected yesterday, but we then saw price push back higher anyway, not quite through the SPX pullback highs. Let’s see what the day brings to end the week.

Anyway, looking at the details, little is changing for SPX. The breakout has developed, as has the pullback, so really just waiting to see if there is a continuation, or something akin to what we are seeing on BTC.

The system is flagging up a bearish setup, but also the notes are saying to leave it, as we have a bullish MACD-v extreme which does currently support the bull breakout potential. Otherwise it’s a mixed setup.

Bearish setup, bullish extreme, and a note telling you to leave it alone. Friday, then.

And given it’s Friday I may just continue to have fun on the lower time frames.

Crypto, BTC – Reached the short sale zone, so now it’s back to waiting.

BTC has reached its short sale zone. The short is filled, so now it’s back to waiting to see if this level holds and prices push lower.

If it does push higher then I’m stopped out, which is the whole point of taking it here. A super low risk area zone.

Time will tell all.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

The shenanigans continue and we see an attempted breakout of the range overnight, likely on the NVDA earnings excitement, but I think the reality is once the dust settles we can expect a return to whatever the fuck this new normal is.

Market Snapshot

An attempt at a breakout was made overnight. The market has since clarified that the attempt was exploratory, and no commitment should be inferred from it.

• SPX 7,675.70, down 1.58 (0.02%). Still in the range on cash. Full read below.

• ES 7,725.75, up 15.75 (0.20%). Bull breaks of the previously mentioned ranges are being attempted.

• NazQuack (NQ) 29,612.25, up 0.59%. Same story, the bull break is being attempted here too.

• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,506, down 221 (0.41%). Inside bar high breakout, and we know what that means. Overnight action took yesterday’s high out already and sold off, just like the inside bar setups we have been talking about all this week and last week.

• Uncle Russ (RTY) 3,011.7, down 1.7 (0.06%). Developing what I like to call a russian doll type pattern, an inside day inside an inside day which is inside an inside day. This is going to pop hard, well, usually it does.

• Gold 4,634.5, down 13.3 (0.29%). No read today.

• Crude (CL) 82.12, up 0.21 (0.26%). No read today.

• VIX 14.91, down 0.31 (2.04%). No read today.

• BTC 80,070.91. The long one. Full read below.

SPX – Still in the range on cash, and the futures are pumping.

SPX cash is looking like it’s still in the range, but we know the futures pump means it’s likely to gap higher around 40 or so points at the open if it holds. Meta did the same thing on its news, interestingly gap higher trade lower.

Meta has already shown everyone how this goes. Act surprised.

It will be interesting to see if these overnight moves hold or fold. Breakout on the gap, pullback then continuation higher is the pattern, or a move lower and back inside the range.

I’m remaining cautious on my swings. 3 days to go and we are officially in bear season. Small hedge type of trades on still, just in case.

Although with the global trading hours I’d expect to be able to join the fun if there is an overnight move without having to bugger around with futures.

Anyway, that’s metaphorically next week’s problem.

Crypto, BTC – Failure at the range high, and a short filled at 80000.

OK folks, strap in.

The layout post inside bar trade is that a new high was attempted and on the daily chart we can see a clear rejection bar or inverted hammer type of shape should you have the candlestick charts on. Now this in and of itself is not a reason to get excited, individually named candle patterns happen all the time and don’t mean anything without context, but it does make me sit up and pay a little more attention to that context and update the analysis.

This is when I move from my snap view to the dedicated workspace for that deeper assessment. Now as an aside, I am not spending hours doing this. At my stage of life it should take 5 to 10 mins and as always I’m using my 6 money making patterns as a framework to identify if and where there may be an opportunity.

Further investigation shows that the prior vertical move higher pulled back, developing the earlier inside bar setup for a quick bull scalp, that should potentially have led into the continuation higher, if a move higher was to be seen.

It didn’t, which is when the inverted hammer and potential Pinocchio bar pattern or pin bar setup was created. Another way of thinking about it is a failed continuation pattern, possible reversal pattern.

Zooming out

This is where the PnF charts really come into their own to be super helpful. We can see price is at a previous stopping point and interestingly when price produced the huge sell off prior to the same explosive move back higher, the same levels can be refined on the regular daily chart. So we have a possible new really large range. Is this the 3rd point of contact for the highs? We already have multiple points for the lows.

Context is starting to build and we now have price at or near a range high with the failure at this stage to continue to break up and out.

Where the dumb money is

A couple of potential scenarios start to now form. Other people far smarter than me have seen this range already, the dumb money has placed their breakout trades or attempted to get on the continuation train, so where are the stops going to be? The dumb money often places stops in really common areas, 50% of the range height, so if this is a stop run to whip the early breakout traders and the “I’m missing the rocket ship crowd”, as well as those that were indeed “on it” already, they will often cover 50% of the move to lock in some profits.

Lots of logical reasons to look at around the 70000 to 72000 level.

So, interesting location, failure to move higher, potential to move lower.

Let’s look at that Pin Bar pattern again…

The dumb money also trades this funny too, all because they don’t have sensible risk controls. They want the 2:1 reward to risk or better and they will often force it. Ranges are my usual example, height of the range is usually the target, so to get the 2:1 they will use half the range height as an artificial stop loss level. Nothing practical in it or about it at all, and the genuinely smart money know where levels like this are.

The Pin bar setups also have them. The dumb money will often have the fomo meter reading to maximum 100% of the time, so they will use the inverted hammer bar every time, the break of that low as soon as. The height of the pin bar, like a range, will be used to calculate a target, height of the pattern. Nothing wrong with this, often a very good way of working targets out, the height of the pattern. Stops equally should always go past the event or pattern that got you into the trade. But the dumb money wants that 2:1, so they use half the height of the pattern, or the bar height to the left of the Pinocchio bar, and call it the eye of Pinocchio.

That was Martin Pring, who named the Pinocchio bar in the first place and named its anatomy with it: the nose, and the bars either side of it, the left eye and the right eye.

The trade

That’s where we are at now. Price is in the bear zone, a super low risk location.

My bear entry was at 80000 on a limit order, with stops above the highs. It’s a live trade, and as it stands it’s a little over 7:1 reward to risk, assuming everything plays out.

Price may get to the 71000-ish zone, or we could see a range start to develop as it has done a few times at these extremes, so a conservative assessment zone around 75000 makes perfect sense to me.

There you have it.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Another fun day’s trading, with most of the action once again happening in the overnight session, with a little spill over into the regular session.

The excitement over the volatility expansion has ultimately vanished quicker than a blind trader’s stop loss after a Jim Cramer pump.

Market Snapshot – Small swings, sput sput fizz, and the big move still isn’t happening.

The volatility expansion lasted 1 day. A review has been ordered, and its findings will not be published.

The 3 day average on SPX continues to contract, and be small like 40 points small.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are still intraday profits to be had and small swings are developing. We are just not seeing much more than sput sput fizz on the majority of the moves. Swinging for a big move and target just ain’t happening. Yet!

VIX attempted a nudge above 16 yesterday on a very brief but welcome spike in price that also fizzled out fast.

• ES 7,686.50, -0.06%. Grinding.

• YM 53,686, +0.08%. Sat right on the NATHs.

• NQ 29,208.75. Still the weak one.

• RTY 3,012.6, -0.05%. Nothing doing.

• VIX 15.69, +1.49%. Went for 16, didn’t get there.

• GC 4,676.4, -0.84%. Off the highs.

• CL 80.04, -1.32%. Back at the big number, see below.

• BTC/USD 78,515.19. Failed to follow through, see below.

SPX – Bullish, boxed in, and patience is your friend.

SPX swings remain bullish, and the PnF chart showcasing its usefulness with a clear barrier at the 7680 to 7700 zone.

We’ve already noted the regular charts as being in a range, but no matter which way you look at this we are once again stuck in the grind, and patience is your friend.

As I’m typing this there is little to no overnight movement so far, and a small red flag news item at 8:30 EST could get things rocking and rolling.

Crude Oil – Back at the number it keeps coming back to.

$80 has been a significant number for crude all year, in the sense that price keeps coming back to look at it and then leaving again.

CL, crude oil, is dropping nicely back to the $80 level. This has been a pivotal level many times this year and makes for a great assessment level for the next something to develop.

Crypto – Went up, looked at what it had done, and put it back.

Bitcoin went up, looked at what it had done, and quietly put it back.

Crypto’s BTC attempted to push high and has failed to follow through. We now see a daily rejection type of bar and a Pinocchio setup could be on the table.

A move back into the red zone for me will trip shorts, that’s the zone up at 80,000. Or below the prior inside bar’s low. Not the ideal entry, but the rally to the red zone may well not happen.

Targets are 71,500, the 50 to 61.8% retracement zone. Although a quick look at the PnF chart shows that we may be developing a quite large, or larger, consolidation area, and possibly could nudge back towards the 64,000 zone.

Premium Poppers – One had nothing. The other had news.

RUT didn’t quite develop a setup and meandered sideways after its opening push. Sidelines is where we are supposed to be here.

SPX saw a fast 1st breakout and, boosted by a little news, hit the targets quite quickly with the directional move lower.

Of course the community was “all over ‘dat”.

• Bill B. “Got SPX 1BO for 75% profit.”

• ehvpsd “Quickest trade ever, SPX 7680/7685 bear call, closed in a minute for 50%. Amazing…”

• Greg D. “Got SPX 1 BO for 50%. Closed right before that big spike bar.”

• Scott K. “SPX bear spread on 1st BO, closed for 47%” and later “Decided to take another SPX bear. It seemed to be testing the 1 day VWAP around 11:30. Sold at $1.10. It meandered around for an hour and a bit, but finally hit my TP at $0.55 for 50%”

• ehvpsd “I took a second one this morning. I made the mistake of setting my stop too close, and got closed out before it had a chance….Lesson learned, not used to trading SPX 0DTE…”

That flush down was a nice speed bonus. And on the second one, small lesson, you’ll get used to it. Get those reps in and you’ll be good.

Fun Fact

Since a Pinocchio setup came up…

The name is not decoration, it’s the mechanism.

Martin Pring called the pattern Pinocchio in Technical Analysis Explained because it lies. It lies about the market direction, and its long nose exposes the lie. The bar breaks the highs or lows of the move, pulling in the breakout traders, then breaks back into the range of the prior candle and traps them.

So “pin bar” is just shorthand. The full name tells you exactly what the bar is doing to somebody.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Well, the inside bar idea produced a few good trades again.

The Inside Bar Scorecard

Five markets, one idea, and it called them all.

The inside bar told 5 different markets what to do overnight and 4 of them listened, which is a better hit rate than most people manage with their own children.

Coming into today’s session we can again see prices turning around overnight.

• RUT — IB high and low taken, in that order.

• Dow — high taken. Looking more like the breakout for the moment.

• ES and NQ — lows taken first, and starting to see today’s overnight moves push higher.

• Crude — we expected the IB to break and trend, which it’s now doing overnight.

• BTC — IB break and fake completed nicely.

Overall the idea working out nicely, producing some nice intraday profits again.

Worth being precise about the two behaviours there, because they are not the same trade. Crude was break and trend. BTC was break and fake. One keeps going, the other turns round and comes back. The inside bar sets up both, and which one you get is the whole question.

Market Snapshot – Volatility withdrawn until further notice.

Volatility has been withdrawn from the stock indexes. No date has been given for its return.

• ES 7,696.75, +0.29%. Lows taken first, now pushing higher.

• YM 53,618, +0.19%. High taken, see above.

• NQ 29,305.25. Same as ES.

• RTY 3,015.9, +0.35%. Took both sides.

• VIX 15.76, -0.51%. 16 still the line, still not there.

• GC 4,683.8, -0.56%. Off the new high.

• CL 83.29, -1.99%. Breaking and trending, see below.

• BTC/USD 79,876.55. New recent highs, see below.

SPX – Bullish, barely, and the air has gone out of it again.

Over on the Tag n Turn swings, SPX remains bullish and not quite flipping to the bear side, which is what the failure point’s job is doing right.

Volatility is once again being sucked out of price movement and the Bollinger Bands are once again squeezing tight. The 3 day average remains around 50 points.

And I once again can’t wait for the markets to open up. Even just slightly would take the suck out of the grind.

Crude Oil – The ignition switch, doing exactly what it advertised.

CL, crude oil’s chart is doing what we thought. The IB behaving like an ignition switch for the next movement.

And we are seeing the overnight moves pop and drop from the 1SD VWAP to the VWAP band.

Price movements are certainly looking a little spicy overnight.

To be clear on the call, since it ran a few days: the expectation was break and trend, as opposed to break out and fake out like BTC. Directionally we were anticipating a possible bull break, but waiting for price to actually break to get the party started.

Crypto – Broke the low, faked it, and came back in.

Crypto’s BTC providing the opportunity for me also, with the IB low breaks first and looking for that to be a fake break, which it was.

And a simple move back into the inside bar’s range. A break back into the range, just the opposite to a breakout, provides the ignition to join the party.

New recent highs are made and looking for the next moves to develop.

Could this be the start of the next big push to new all time highs? Time, as always, will tell all.

Premium Poppers – Two trades, a floor that held, and a tent that didn’t.

RUT gave the classic 1st breakout and locked $154 as the profit floor, with the potential for $654 in the center of the tent. SPX ran 3 trades testing the new VWAP entries, carried a $280 worst case all day, and closed with $220. The last 10 minutes took me out of the RUT tent and secured the SPX profit in the same move.

Awesome work, all of you. And ehvpsd, nice to see you get a good win on the Wall of Wins.

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Monday again. Hope you had a great weekend.

The Inside Day

The first break is usually the wrong one, and that is oddly useful.

The first break out of an inside day is usually a lie, which is a strange thing to be able to rely on, but there we are.

Inside day to finish Friday off last week, and it sets us up nicely for a pop out of that narrow range of price movement.

We commented on this pattern on crude oil last week but we do see it many places. On stock indexes I typically anticipate the side that breaks first is often a false direction, and the real move to then be in the opposite direction.

The move in to the range, or inside bar, was bearish last week, so I’d expect a bear continuation 65 to 70% of the time.

Interestingly crude oil doesn’t see the false breaks in the same way, and we see that has also popped already overnight. Right idea from last week, just another pesky overnight starter move.

Market Snapshot

Everything already happened, and nobody was told.

The move has already taken place. It occurred overnight, without notice, and the regular session will be informed in due course.

• ES 7,683.00, -0.06%. Flat, meandering.

• YM 53,368, +0.07%. Sat under the NATHs.

• NQ 29,241.25. Still the laggard of the group.

• RTY 3,021.4, +0.01%. See below.

• VIX 15.88, +4.89%. 16 is my purple line and I’m still watching for a nudge above it.

• GC 4,698.6, +0.79%. Another new high.

• CL 84.88, -2.03%. Popped overnight, see below.

• BTC/USD 77,236.74. Crypto is grinding sideways after the whole crypto market took a monumental move higher on last Wednesday’s moves.

SPX – Flipped bullish on Friday, and I expect it back the other way.

SPX TnT swings did flip to bullish on Friday, and for the brave souls who held over the weekend, well done.

Given we are down around 10 points, effectively meandering sideways in the premarket as I write this, then I’d think there would be a profit to be had near the opening bell for the regular market. Although with the global exchange, cashing out can be any time now.

Given my bias I’d expect prices to flip back to bearish soon.

RUT – Similar, but the bear tag might land here first.

RUT is doing something similar, although we might get the bear Tag n Turn first here, as the bolly bands are quite close and Russell doesn’t seem to be pushing lower as much in the premarket.

In both cases, a morning push higher before an eventual turn lower seems like, as for most of Aug, this is the flow of the day we have seen most commonly.

Crude Oil – The break happened. Overnight. Again.

Crude oil shows that range break, or inside day break, depending on which time frame you are looking at.

Once again the move developed overnight, so I’m just waiting to see if there is a push higher that will allow me to join the fun, or if I need to wait for another opportunity.

Premium Poppers – A mixed bag, and a good week regardless.

Last Friday’s Premium Poppers, the community again pulled a mixed bag of premium. But on the whole the week was again awesome. Well done team.

• James D. “Took the SPX Bear LP for a win :-)”

• Keith F. “got stopped on the PP today. still, 3 out of 4 for the week ain’t bad”

• Eddy “Didn’t trust the SPX bear BO1, but took the bear BO2, only to be stopped out :-)”

• Keith F. “The third BO might be okay….but I think I’m done for the day.”

• Don E. “Lost RUT Bear, won SPX Bull LP. Tough market to trade”

• James D. “Hanging in for an end of day drop in SPX….”

• Bill S. “Made my 50% on SPX. Closed at 1:00 pm CDT. Shorted the 7685 at 8:57 am. About 0.20 delta.”

And a note from me on the day: use the trigger bar’s highs or lows to get you in.

Fun Fact

Since the bolly bands came up.

John Bollinger did not name Bollinger Bands. Not deliberately, anyway.

They went nameless for years. Then Bill Griffeth, an on air host at the Financial News Network, pointed at the chart during a live segment and asked what he called them. Bollinger’s own account of it is that he was stumped, and said the first thing that came to mind.

So the most widely used volatility indicator in the world is named after a man who was put on the spot on live television and panicked.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

What an interesting day yesterday. The Asian range, break, retest and run developed again in the premarket futures and once again most of my day was done in the premarket while I was writing these morning briefings.

Simply can’t wait for the out of regular hours data to be available on the cash indexes so it can be charted more easily. For now I continue to use the ES futures as a proxy.

More on that setup later, because it’s a big part of the debrief coming today.

Market Snapshot

Normal movement resumed, all of it before anyone was awake.

The stock indexes have resumed a normal range of movement. They have elected to conduct all of it before anyone is awake.

I’d also say we saw another big day of movement yesterday, but the stock indexes are for the moment just expanding back into a normal range of movement, with most of that movement frustratingly happening in the premarket trading, which we see as gaps on the charts. Such is the way of things.

• ES 7,686.50, +0.24%. The overnight rally, see below.

• YM 53,051, +0.37%. Bouncing with the rest.

• NQ 29,441.50. Still the laggard.

• RTY 3,018.0, +0.64%. Best of the four this morning.

• GC 4,654.1, +1.73%. Off to a new high.

• CL 86.17, -0.05%. Building the next bar, see below.

• ETH/BTC 0.03079, -3.39%. Giving some of the monster bar back.

VIX – 16 is the line. We are not there yet.

VIX above 16, the swing high on the daily, will signal to me that another bear push is starting in earnest. Sat at 15.74 this morning, so not yet.

Despite the current premarket trends, sadly not a lot to play with so far as I’m typing this. The VIX is holding its elevated levels, so once again I am inferring that we might gap higher in a small way in the regular session and then continue the sell off.

With it being Friday I would also assume that the trend is in for the week, and something weird and funky would have to tweet, I mean happen.

SPX – Below 7700 and the bear case stands. Above it, everything gets reassessed.

The SPX and RUT Tag n Turn charts remain bearish. There is a range breakout target on SPX, so as long as prices stay below and outside the range lows I would not be concerned about the overnight rally.

A move back in the range above 7700 and all bear bets are reassessed. Otherwise I will remain bearish to the breakout target.

Crude Oil – Another narrow bar, and at this point it is a habit.

Crude is building another narrow bar, which at this point is less a pattern than a habit, and habits are considerably easier to trade than patterns.

Crude oil popped higher from the morning analysis quite nicely and it is looking like we may be watching another narrow ranging bar develop again today.

It will be fun to see if this is an overnight setup for some follow through to yesterday’s call, or if it’s the setup for Monday’s trading, or a weekend pump.

Could be fun.

Premium Poppers – Plenty of them, and they get a piece of their own.

Yesterday’s trades and Premium Poppers were a plenty, so I will do a separate more detailed debriefing on SPX, RUT, ETH/BTC and CL trades taken yesterday.

This should be on the Wall of Wins along with members winners trophies late today.

Fun Fact

Since we’re after a cherry on the top today.

The cherry on top has a birthday. On Sunday 3 April 1892, at Platt and Colt’s soda fountain in Ithaca, vanilla ice cream was served with cherry syrup and a candied cherry, and the two men present decided to call it a “Cherry Sunday” in honor of the day it was created. The first advertisement ran in the Ithaca Daily Journal on 5 April 1892.

The spelling is the interesting part. Evanston, Illinois had passed a law in 1890 prohibiting the sale of soda water on Sundays, and one of the competing origin stories has the name respelled to keep the sabbath crowd happy.

So the cherry on top may well be the world’s most delicious compliance workaround.

Let’s see if we can’t PopPop a cherry on the top of the trading week to finish Friday strong.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Well folks, we survived the FOMC Hump Day and the surprise news pump. Most of my trading day was done in the premarket, thanks to the new global SPX trading for this and the other cash settled futures.

And the gap is closed. Now we can resume what we were doing previously.

Market Snapshot – The gap filled, the VIX up anyway, and Bitcoin off to the races.

The gap has been closed. The market has confirmed it was only ever there as a formality, and would like to move on.

• ES 7,626.00, +0.52%. Gap filled, see below.

• YM 53,493, -0.06%. Still lagging.

• NQ 29,532.75. Off the highs.

• RTY 3,039.8, -0.03%. Doing something similar to SPX.

• VIX 15.15, +1.81%. Up, despite the pump.

• GC 4,549.8, -0.67%. Off a new high.

• CL 85.50, +1.30%. The breakout is developing, see below.

• BTC/USD 70,857.16. That’s the surprise news pump.

SPX – Still bearish, and the futures have already broken the Asian lows.

The system is still bearish, which after a news pump and a gap fill is less a forecast than a refusal to be distracted.

On the lower time frames for the swings the system is still technically bearish despite the push higher to fill the gap, and now we are near the lows and still assessing for that breakout.

And with the overnight futures already pushing lower, breaking the Asian session lows, this could well be the bear break I’ve been waiting, if not hoping, for.

RUT of course doing something similar, so until we see a proper break I’ll just have it as a foot note.

Crude Oil – Developing exactly as described.

CL, crude oil, is developing a breakout move and I’m expecting a quick’ish pump of a bullish move.

Debit spread in the premarket for me. Let’s see where this takes us.

Options target set, so a little push is all I need, and a more than average day’s move will take me there.

Crypto – Monster bar, 0.0320 reached, sitting in cash.

ETH/BTC price pumped from the range low to the range highs on the surprise news, wiping a lot of crypto bears, which I’m sure you will have seen in the various news. And my heart bleeds for not a single one of them.

Price at the range high means that I’m now assessing for the break or the turn, and optimistically adjusted my target up to the breakout level noted on the charts, while waiting for the V-Entry pattern to develop for a potential bear turn.

That target is 0.0320, and the maths behind it is simple enough: the range height added to the range high, projected upwards.

And then I wake up to this monster bar. Target reached. Sitting in cash and looking for my next opportunity.

Premium Poppers – Risk free before the open, and 1 position I buggered up.

The Premium Poppers pulled the premiums across the board again today.

And of course the community continues to keep pulling the premiums. Well done.

• Don E. “closed SPX Bull BO for 50%, good luck to all who are able to transform into a butterfly.”

• Eddy “Same here: closed SPX Bull BO for 50%, no butterfly :-)”

• Keith F. “My bias was down at first this morning. Good thing I followed the rules. 50% on PP this morning. In hindsight this was a perfect trade lol.”

• Scott K. “I took an spx bear spread during pre-market. I wanted to try the mechanics since I had never done one. The futures had opened below Tuesday’s close so I took that, but just before the spike this morning!! It did work out, closing for a 50% profit, but it definitely isn’t as mechanical as letting the PP settings give you the signal.”

• RJ M “just scalping way up at the 7740/7745 level on SPX” and later “SPX long just hit the 50% mark. (for me at least, entered at 10:39).”

• Silas P. posted the trade live: sell to open the 7715 put, buy to open the 7710 put, filled at $1.10 credit, profit target $0.55 debit, stop loss $2.20 debit.

• Bill H “just got in the SPX few mins ago, been in the RUTTY since yesterday close… so that was a stick save for me :)”

• KBL Destinations Trading LLC “10:30am ET SPY CALLS….. Thanks POPPER!!”

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Well, if Monday dazzled, Tuesday made everyone dizzy. At least on SPX, gap lower and then a hard grind sideways, with my trades grinding to a time decay profit around 2 minutes before the closing bell.

Anyway, the futures looked like they would be suggesting the start of some expanding volatility but alas it was not meant to be.

Market Snapshot – Volatility promised, volatility cancelled, and everything else grinding.

The futures indicated the start of expanding volatility. The volatility has since been notified, and has declined to attend.

VIX remains elevated, no surprises there with the sell off, but it is holding the highs it’s made.

BTC, Gold and Oil are all stuck in the grind.

• ES 7,715.75, +0.03%. Back inside the range.

• YM 53,444, +0.07%. Sat under the NATHs.

• NQ 29,568.00. Well off its own highs.

• RTY 3,027.2, +0.03%. Carbon copy of SPX, see below.

• VIX 15.83, -0.13%. Elevated and holding.

• GC 4,408.1, +0.42%. Grinding.

• CL 84.37, -0.06%. See below, it’s earned a section.

• BTC/USD 64,300.84. Grinding.

Crude Oil – One narrow bar, 12 occurrences, and 10 of them called the break.

Crude oil did print a small narrow ranging bar yesterday, which we can take as a range on the lower time frames.

This has developed around 10 to 12 times in the last several weeks and has popped out for 1 to 2 days afterwards.

The move into the range has typically determined the breakout move, 10 of the 12 times I eyeballed the pattern.

SPX – Back in the range, breakout unconfirmed, and long live the bear.

Today, and in the premarket, there has been a nudge below the prior day’s lows, which I usually take as a sign for continuation 80% of the time. Good ole Pareto and his principles.

Selling rallies in the premarket may be a choice again for me. We will see.

Onto the swings. SPX has pushed back into the prior range and not confirmed the breakout move. Just as we discussed, most of the move from the range high to the range low was done in the gap lower, and now SPX is flirting with the same breakout or break in setup.

As you know, I am bearish. Long live the bear, lol.

RUT is almost a carbon copy so I’ll skip the chart again today, although it remains a cleaner chart to assess.

Crypto – A tighter range inside the range, and nothing new to see.

ETH/BTC gave me a brief headache, but it does look like prices are grinding out a smaller tighter range within the range.

Nothing new is developing so just waiting for the larger cycle move to get going. The 6 money making patterns hold true.

Premium Poppers – Two minutes before the bell, and I was watching a play.

The profit tents locked 2 minutes before the closing bell, which is the market’s way of admitting it heard you the first time and simply could not be bothered to say so.

Premium Poppers once again pulled the premiums.

Both SPX and RUT, although I only traded SPX again myself. RUT showed a clear clean breakout while SPX gave an eventual breakout which then went sideways into the grind.

For myself I took the 1st and 3rd breaks again.

Those profit tents only started to lock in 2 minutes before the close, and I’m surprised they did that often, with prices doing that last minute push to the end of the day. And it’s only a 10 point move so nothing to write home about.

The orders can get skipped as there is just nothing in it for the market maker algos, so one did and one didn’t, and I think I buggered the orders up anyway. So no harm no foul.

Most importantly is that despite the shitty SPX moves or lack thereof, the community scooped a bucket load of premium. Awesome work as always team.

• Don E. Closed RUT Bear BO for 45%

• Keith F. “It’s been a while since I’ve posted. Too much discretionary trading and not enough structure….it dawned on me…. I know a guy

• Things lined up. Got the PP for 50% today.”

• Richard H. “RUT BO1 ATM SS3035 transformed into butterfly for a $1 win, and hoping for a retracement to the profit tent.”

• Bill B. Wins on the RUT, AMD and AAPL

• Chris T. “Got bored waiting for the transformer to fill so just took the profit and relaxed into the sofa.”

• Scott K. “Getting some consistency for the last couple of weeks, 9 wins, 1 loss (that plunged through my SL!) I am happy with the progress.”

• Keith B. “Took a small trade on SPX BO1 with SS @7715 (just outside top of range). Wanted to see if it would come in a winner with sideways movement of price with little volatility or if I would hit the SL. Hit 50% profit early afternoon while I was away running errands. Still trying to get a feel for how price movement can trigger the SL. Sometimes it seems that it can happen quite quickly.”

• Chris “Seems like RUT is better for a LP since I keep randomly getting stopped out due to the crazy spread swings.”

• James D. “Still wasn’t like the price action yesterday, would have taken the RUT LP when it hit but the price was terrible, instead took an XSP LP for a small win.”

Welcome back Keith. Good to see you on the Wall of Wins.

And Richard, that’s a Bam-chicka-PopPop.

Fun Fact

Since you brought up good ole Pareto. He never called it the Pareto Principle.

The name was coined in 1941 by management consultant Joseph Juran, who came across Pareto’s work on quality control and named the idea after him. What Pareto actually noticed, in 1896 at the University of Lausanne, was that 80% of Italy’s land was owned by 20% of the population, and he then found the same split in other countries. The other observation credited to him is that 20% of the pea plants in his garden produced 80% of the pods.

So the most quoted rule in trading is named after a man who was counting peas, by somebody else, 45 years later.

Meme of the Day:

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!

Morning traders, something a little bit different today as the analysis is currently not changing dramatically.

Market Snapshot

Prices falling off, and the cluster of fucks may finally be ending.

The other indexes have now joined Uncle Dow. No apology has been issued, and the Dow is not expected to accept one.

The snap overview, we can see prices are indeed falling off but we really do need to skip through the cluster of fucks we’ve been meandering in for the last few days.

The exception has been Uncle Dow which has been leading the bear charge all along. VIX clues from yesterday held well too, with elevation in VIX before the SnP moves really started.

• ES 7,723.00, -0.55%. Falling away from the NATHs.

• YM 53,408, -0.19%. The one that started it.

• NQ 29,741.25. Rolling over with the rest of them.

• RTY 3,051.6, -0.42%. Joined the party.

• VIX 16.01, +5.47%. The clue, and it held.

• GC 4,443.3, -0.67%. Easing back.

• CL 84.51, -0.52%. Quiet again.

• BTC/USD 64,153.44. Ticking along.

The Break In

The opposite of a breakout, and no book will tell you about it.

There is no chapter on the break in, because the people who write the books have never had to explain why support stopped working halfway through a Tuesday.

One of the several things we looked at in the group calls was the premarket trade based off the 60 minute premarket rejection of the prior highs level from the 5th Aug. Similar to a breakout, prices pushed back in. The trade called around 8am EST.

Anyways, just the opposite to a breakout is a break in. We often talk about this setup and you will never see it written about in those TA books. Another way to think about it is a flip of support back to resistance.

And if you look on the other stock indexes you will see the prior swing in NazQuack’s case and the prior NATHs on the other 3 get reclaimed.

Sentiment

63% broken, back below the August and July peaks, 45% next?

To top things off, the sentiment, in the form of the number of stocks pushing past the 63% down below 60%, happened yesterday. Interestingly, back below the Aug 5th peak and the July 6th peak.

Just looking at history, could we expect the numbers of stocks above the 20 period moving average push to around the 45% level? This will give me at least the start of my bear move.

But will it lead to a catalysis move, and that most elusive but almost annual occurrence of 10% in 10 to 15 days?

Hopefully the fun has just started and I don’t have a safe word!!!

Premium Poppers – Premarket rejection, two BOs at one level, targets hit before the film.

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers once again pulled some premiums.

My first trade was taken from the premarket rally and the futures rejecting, the break in above. Got to love that new almost 24 hour trading on the cash options now, just select global trading and boop.

The next trades were 1st and 3rd BOs at the same level, so same strikes can be seen on the profit and loss curve.

And of course the community smashed it again, well done team.

• Chris T. “SPX popper took its sweet time. Finally hit target. The interesting one with this one is the spot price at target was only $1 lower than my entry price. So time decay worked for me rather than a price move.”

• Richard H. “Same for me, I had to walk away, it was so frustrating. BO1 ATM SS7700 for $2.50cr and converted to a butterfly for a $0.6c win. Please come back SPX after all that wait!”

• James D. “Bear RUT TnT closed for a tiny profit, Bear SPX TnT closed for a profit and a Bear LP XSP at 50%…. I think tomorrow will be better, is this the start of the sell-off? Today the price action is still sketchy…”

Fun Fact

Home Depot reports before the open today.

Home Depot once faked its own inventory. The shelves were full. The boxes were not.

When the first two Home Depot stores opened in Atlanta on 22 June 1979, the founders could not afford enough stock, so merchandiser Pat Farrah persuaded suppliers to hand over empty boxes carrying their labels, and the team stacked them high to make the aisles look full. The company went public in September 1981, raising $4.093m.

Trade well,

T2 Markets

p.s. Want full access to the SPX Income System (includes 7+ mechanical income strategies)? Join our team now!