Crash Expert: “This Looks Like 1929” → 71,105 Diversifying Here

Mark Spitznagel, who made $1B in a single day during the 2015 flash crash, warned markets are mimicking 1929. Seems extreme but we did just see the worst quarter for the S&P since 2022.

So it’s not so surprising that Vanguard and Goldman Sachs forecasted 5% and 3% annual S&P returns respectively for 2024-2034.

Late last year, Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok put it this way: "expect zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade."

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Iran Blinked. Trump Didn't 👀 

The Iran ceasefire is on life support. Trump called their peace proposal "a piece of garbage." And the Strait of Hormuz is still basically closed.

Not great vibes.

Here's where things stand:

Trump declared the month-long U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on "massive life support" after Tehran's latest proposal landed on his desk and he reportedly didn't even finish reading it.

Iran's offer? Lift the naval blockade. Drop sanctions. Guarantee no more strikes. Oh, and let Iran keep some control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's response: "Totally unacceptable."

Why does this matter to your portfolio?

The Strait of Hormuz used to carry roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG before all this kicked off. It's still largely blocked.

Oil prices $USO ( ▲ 3.66% )  $BNO ( ▲ 2.63% ) are staying elevated. That's not a surprise when the world's most important energy chokepoint is playing host to a geopolitical standoff.

Meanwhile, "Project Freedom" might be back.

Trump is weighing a revival of the initiative, which would escort neutral ships through the Strait. It launched last week, got paused when peace talks started, and now looks set for a comeback with a broader mandate.

No final decision yet. But the fact it's back on the table tells you everything about how optimistic the White House is feeling.

The non-negotiable for Trump?

Iran must explicitly commit to no nuclear weapons before any deal gets signed.

Tehran's latest letter didn't include that. So here we are.

TL;DR

• Trump called Iran's peace proposal "a piece of garbage" and declared the ceasefire on "massive life support"

• Iran wanted sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz

• Trump's red line: Iran must formally renounce its nuclear programme before any deal happens

• The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, choking off ~20% of global oil and LNG flows

• Oil prices ($USO, $BNO) are staying elevated with no resolution in sight

• "Project Freedom," Trump's ship escort initiative, may be revived with an expanded scope

1. Ride the Oil Supply Squeeze 
The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and one-fifth of global oil and LNG has nowhere to go. Until a deal gets signed, supply stays tight and prices stay elevated.

📌 Action: Hold or add to oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 2.63% ) . If talks collapse further, expect another leg up. Take profit on any ceasefire headline spike.

2. Stack Energy Producers 
Blocked supply plus elevated oil prices is a gift for U.S. energy companies printing cash right now. They don't need the Strait open. In fact, they'd rather it stayed shut.

📌 Action: Look at integrated majors like $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) or $CVX ( ▲ 2.39% ) , or the broader energy ETF $XLE ( ▲ 2.36% ) . These names benefit directly from sustained high oil prices.

3. Hedge With Defence Exposure 
Trump is reviving Project Freedom, military escorts are back on the table, and this standoff isn't ending this week. Defence spending isn't slowing down.

📌 Action: Consider ETFs like $ITA ( ▼ 3.2% ) (aerospace & defence) or names like $LMT ( ▼ 0.85% ) and $RTX ( ▼ 2.56% ) . Geopolitical heat is their tailwind.

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He Called Nvidia. Now This. 💰️ 

The guy who called Nvidia before it 80x has a new idea.

Josh Wolfe co-founded Lux Capital. In 2016, he publicly called Nvidia at a kids' charity conference in Chicago. His argument: the narrative would shift from gaming to simulation and AI.

It returned 80x.

So when Wolfe says he has his third conviction call, you probably want to hear it.

The idea is called "lifecording."

The idea? Wearable devices will record your daily life — audio first, then video — while AI continuously processes, summarises and surfaces connections you'd never catch yourself.

Think of it as a second brain strapped to your wrist. Except it actually works.

Wolfe says he's near-certain this trend arrives through a wave of acquisitions and product launches. He's pointing to Meta buying the Limitless pendant, Amazon's Bee wearable, and the OpenAI/Jony Ive device project as the opening shots.

Wall Street doesn't have a name for this yet. That, he says, is the entire point.

The "Arms Dealers" Trade

Wolfe's playbook doesn't bet on who wins the device war. It bets on whoever sells the bullets.

He calls it the "arms dealer" trade. Back the component suppliers that profit regardless of which platform dominates. Same logic drove his second conviction call: SK Hynix, Micron $MU ( ▼ 6.62% ) and Samsung $SSNLF ( ▲ 116.8% ) in 2024, when he spotted the narrative shift from commodity memory to coveted HBM attach rates.

For lifecording, he allocated a model $2M across nine positions:

• Nordic Semiconductor $NRSDY — 18% — BLE wireless

• TDK Corporation $TTDKY ( ▼ 3.01% ) — 14% — MEMS microphones

• Himax Technologies $HIMX ( ▼ 7.83% ) — 14% — AR optics

• Ambiq Micro $AMBQ ( ▼ 3.72% ) — 12% — edge AI

• Infineon Technologies $IFNNY ( ▼ 3.58% ) — 12% — power management

• CEVA $CEVA ( ▼ 3.9% ) — 10% — DSP licensing

• Synaptics $SYNA ( ▼ 1.19% ) — 8% — IoT SoC

• Enovix $ENVX ( ▼ 3.02% ) — 7% — next-gen batteries

• Cirrus Logic $CRUS ( ▼ 1.92% ) — 5% — audio codec

Every name maps to a specific layer of the wearable hardware stack. This isn't a vibe trade. It's a supply chain thesis dressed up as a basket.

His Top Pick Is Already Popping

Wolfe's highest-conviction name was $HIMX ( ▼ 7.83% ) … and it's already making him look smart.

Himax surged ~30% on May 7 after smashing Q1 2026 guidance. Baird followed up by tripling its price target from $10 to $30. The stock was up another 8% in Monday premarket after an 11% Friday.

Most names in the basket had sub-$5B market caps at entry. That's the sweet spot. Small enough that institutions haven't piled in yet, big enough to move when demand arrives.

Worth noting: all positions are held in Wolfe's personal account, not the Lux fund.

TL;DR

• Josh Wolfe — the guy who called Nvidia at 80x — has a new conviction trade called "lifecording"

• The thesis: AI-powered wearables will record and process daily life, kicking off a hardware supercycle

• His play isn't the devices — it's the components inside them (the "arms dealer" approach)

• He built a 9-stock basket of sub-$5B suppliers across BLE, AR optics, edge AI, batteries and audio

• His top pick $HIMX already surged ~30% after a Q1 beat, with Baird raising its target from $10 to $30

• The big read: Wall Street hasn't named this category yet — Wolfe says that's exactly the opportunity

He's Scared. He's Also In. 😕 

The man who called the 2008 housing crash is back on his Substack, and he's not exactly popping champagne.

"The market has jumped the shark," Burry wrote, suggesting the recent rally has sent stocks into fantasy territory while the real risks quietly stack up.

Wall Street's been on a tear lately. Strong earnings, fading geopolitical tension, whispers of a US-Iran deal. Investors are feeling themselves.

But here's the thing: no deal has actually been signed. The optimism is running ahead of the facts.

Now, the plot twist.

While Burry's waving the red flag with one hand, he's buying with the other.

He confirmed he picked up a full position in MercadoLibre $MELI ( ▼ 3.77% ) last week, scooping shares in the $1,600s after the stock face-planted 12.7% on Friday following earnings.

So why MELI? A few reasons:

• Revenue is set to hit ~$40B this year — roughly 30% above 2025 levels

• No stock-based compensation diluting shareholders (it's cash-settled instead)

• Massive AWS-backed cloud infrastructure, even if they don't sell cloud services to third parties

Burry says MELI is now below his "IV15" price — his threshold for expecting 15%+ annualised returns over 15+ years.

That's a big conviction bet.

MELI recovered 0.5% in premarket Monday. Baby steps.

TL;DR

• Burry says the market has "jumped the shark" and a reversal could be brewing

• Stocks are rallying on strong earnings and US-Iran deal optimism — but nothing's signed yet

• Burry bought a full position in $MELI in the $1,600s after a 12.7% Friday drop

• MELI projected to hit ~$40B in revenue this year, up ~30% on 2025

• No stock-based comp dilution — awards are cash-settled

• Burry believes MELI offers 15%+ annualised returns at current prices over a 15-year horizon

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Apple's Plan To Ditch Taiwan 🚨

Apple and Intel are getting back together! Sort of.

A preliminary chip-making deal is on the table, per the Wall Street Journal. And yes, the same Intel that's been having a rough few years may soon be building hardware for the world's most valuable company.

What we know:

• Talks have been going on for over a year and have heated up recently

• It's still unclear which Apple products Intel would be making chips for

• Apple also held talks with Samsung about the same thing earlier this month

The elephant in the room: Apple already has TSMC doing the heavy lifting on chips for iPhones, iPads, and the rest of the lineup. So Intel isn't walking into an empty room here — it'd be fighting for a seat at a very crowded table.

This feels less like a love story and more like Apple keeping its options open.

Diversifying your chip supply chain when US-Taiwan tensions are a thing? Smart. Giving Intel a lifeline while getting leverage over TSMC? Even smarter.

Don't read too much into this yet. “Preliminary deal" is doing a lot of work in that headline. But the direction of travel is clear: Apple wants manufacturing redundancy, and Intel needs a win.

Watch this space.

TL;DR

• Apple and Intel have struck a preliminary chip-making agreement, per the WSJ

• It's unclear which Apple products Intel would manufacture chips for

• Talks have been ongoing for over a year and recently intensified

• Apple also held separate talks with Samsung about chip manufacturing

• Apple currently relies on TSMC for iPhone, iPad, and other device chips

• This looks like Apple diversifying its supply chain rather than replacing TSMC

1. Ride the Intel Comeback 
The market hasn't fully priced in what a sustained Apple contract could mean for Intel's revenue. If this deal gets confirmed, INTC could see a serious re-rating.

📌 Action: Accumulate $INTC ( ▼ 6.18% ) on dips before an official announcement drops. The risk/reward on a preliminary deal becoming public is asymmetric in your favour.

2. Double Down on TSMC's Moat 
Apple sniffing around Intel and Samsung doesn't mean TSMC is going anywhere. It means Apple wants leverage. TSMC still makes the best chips on the planet and that's not changing overnight.

📌 Action: Any dip in $TSM ( ▼ 3.2% ) on this news is a buying opportunity. Treat the diversification narrative as noise and the TSMC quality moat as signal.

3. Play the Semiconductor Sector Broadly 
This deal is a signal that chip demand is accelerating across the board. Apple doesn't ink agreements unless it's planning serious volume.

📌 Action: Add exposure to the semiconductor sector via $SOXX ( ▼ 4.06% ) or $SMH ( ▼ 3.8% ) to capture upside across the whole supply chain without betting on one name.

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Even Peace Won't Fix This 😨 

Shell CEO Wael Sawan didn't mince words on his latest earnings call: the world is already sitting on a ~1 billion barrel crude shortage, and it's getting worse every day the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

"We have dug ourselves a hole of close to 1B barrels of crude shortage at the moment," he said. "The journey back will be a long one."

That's not a typo. One. Billion. Barrels.

How did we get here?

The Strait of Hormuz closure is the IEA's officially confirmed biggest supply disruption in history. Locked-in cargoes, unproduced barrels, and a shipping logjam that doesn't just fix itself when someone signs a ceasefire.

Halliburton CEO Jeffrey Miller echoed the same grim math last month: "Cumulative production deficits are trending towards 1B barrels. Recovery will not be a quick or simple process."

These aren't bears talking their book. These are the guys who run the pipes.

The demand side is already cracking.

Airlines are down roughly 5% on fuel demand as the only real lever anyone can pull right now. Think about that: the entire aviation industry is effectively rationing jet fuel.

ConocoPhillips CFO Andrew O'Brien landed the scariest line of the bunch: import-dependent countries could face critical shortages by June or July. That's not a tail risk. That's six weeks away.

And even if peace breaks out tomorrow?

Don't get excited too fast. Exxon CEO Darren Woods says expect a 1-2 month lag between the strait reopening and oil actually flowing normally to market. The backlog doesn't evaporate overnight.

So even the best-case scenario still means a rough summer.

TL;DR

• Shell CEO says the world is short ~1 billion barrels of crude, and the gap widens daily

• The Strait of Hormuz closure is the biggest supply disruption in IEA history

• Halliburton and ConocoPhillips confirm the same trajectory — this takes a long time to unwind

• Airlines have already cut fuel demand ~5%; broader demand curtailment is spreading

• Critical shortages could hit import-dependent countries as early as June/July

• Even if the strait reopens, markets won't see normal supply for another 1-2 months after that

5 Stocks Berkshire Won't Sell 📈 

Berkshire Hathaway has crossed the 10% ownership threshold in two more Japanese trading giants — Sumitomo Corp. and Marubeni Corp.

Sumitomo stake: up to 10.05% (from 9.30% in March). Marubeni: up to 10.10% (from 9.32%). Both crossed the line in the first week of May.

That means Berkshire now holds 10%+ in all five of Japan's biggest trading houses — Sumitomo, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Itochu, and Mitsui.

At the annual meeting, new CEO Greg Abel made it crystal clear: this isn't a trade. It's a long-term commitment.

And it doesn't stop there. Berkshire also announced a $1.8B investment in Tokio Marine Holdings back in March, doubling down on the Japanese financial sector.

The play here is pretty simple. These trading conglomerates are cheap on a valuation basis, pay solid dividends, and sit at the centre of global commodity flows. Buffett spotted that years ago. Abel is making sure everyone knows they're not done.

TL;DR

• Berkshire crossed 10% ownership in Sumitomo and Marubeni this week

• It now holds 10%+ in all five major Japanese trading houses

• Greg Abel confirmed the Japan positions are long-term holds

• Berkshire is also deploying $1.8B into Tokio Marine Holdings

• The trading houses offer cheap valuations, strong dividends, and commodity exposure

• This is one of the clearest signals yet of Berkshire's post-Buffett strategic direction

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China Owns America's Drones 😬 

The Pentagon has a bold vision: flood the battlefield with cheap, lethal drones made in the USA.

There's just one problem. Most of the guts inside those drones are Chinese.

Batteries. Motors. Cameras. Control electronics. Teardowns of drones used in Ukraine — by both sides — found Chinese-made or Chinese-linked components inside. That's not a supply chain risk. That's a supply chain dependency.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is throwing $1.1 billion at the problem via a new "Drone Dominance" program. The goal: buy 340,000 first-person-view drones across multiple phases, driving unit costs down to around $2,300 each.

Right now, a U.S.-made military quadcopter can run you $15,000+.

A comparable Chinese system? A fraction of that.

The gap isn't about American engineers being worse. It's about scale. China built DJI into a global commercial drone giant — and that mass production machine makes it almost impossible to compete on price.

China also controls the rare-earth magnets and battery supply chains powering those motors. So even if you build the drone here, you're still buying critical inputs from Beijing.

Washington is pushing back with regulation. An FCC ban on foreign drone imports is set to kick in 2027 — but analysts warn it could jack up costs for U.S. producers before domestic alternatives are actually ready.

Replacing a supply chain that's already cheap, efficient and global isn't a sprint. It's a multi-year rebuild.

TL;DR

• America's drone gap is real: U.S. military drones cost 5–6x more than Chinese equivalents

• Hegseth's fix: $1.1B "Drone Dominance" program targeting 340,000 FPV drones at ~$2,300/unit

• The core problem is scale, not skill — China's DJI dominance gives Beijing a mass-production moat

• Supply chain exposure is deep: Chinese parts found inside drones used by both sides in Ukraine

• China controls rare earths and batteries — key inputs that can't be swapped overnight

• A 2027 FCC import ban is coming, but could hurt U.S. producers before domestic supply is ready

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Big IPOs Just Got A Free Pass 🎫 

Index funds might finally stop missing the biggest IPOs of our lifetime.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is proposing to drop its profitability requirement for mega-cap IPOs wanting into the S&P 500. It also wants to shorten the waiting period after a company lists.

Translation: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic could fast-track straight into your index fund.

Why now? Passive funds tied to indexes control trillions in retirement savings. Missing a $1 trillion company because of a rulebook written in a different era is starting to look embarrassing.

Critics aren't happy though.

The proposal would let giant IPOs skip hurdles that smaller newly public companies still have to clear. So if you're big enough, the velvet rope lifts automatically. Everyone else queues.

It's not a great look.

Here's the thing most people don't realise: the S&P 500 isn't purely mechanical. There's an actual committee. There are eligibility rules. It's not just "500 biggest US companies, done."

That matters more than you'd think.

In 2020, Tesla was added late to the S&P 500. Index investors missed a huge chunk of the run-up. The index lagged rivals that year partly because of that one decision.

SpaceX could be Tesla on steroids.

At a rumoured valuation of ~$1.75 trillion, it would instantly rank among America's largest stocks. Even with limited shares publicly available, the index treatment alone could move serious money.

Nasdaq has already jumped ahead. It's fast-tracking giant IPOs into the Nasdaq-100 (the index QQQ tracks) and tweaking weighting rules to stop funds being forced into outsized positions on thinly traded new listings.

The direction of travel is clear.

Bottom line: If these changes stick, the next generation of blockbuster IPOs won't sit outside the index waiting room for years. They'll be in your passive fund almost immediately after ringing the bell.

TL;DR

• S&P Dow Jones is proposing to drop profitability requirements for mega-cap IPOs entering the S&P 500

• SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are the obvious beneficiaries if the rules change

• Critics say it's special treatment for the biggest players while smaller IPOs still face the old hurdles

• The S&P 500 has never been purely mechanical — a committee makes calls, and those calls have consequences

• Tesla's late 2020 inclusion showed how much index timing can cost passive investors

• Nasdaq has already moved to fast-track giant IPOs into the Nasdaq-100, setting the precedent

Barrels Going Nowhere Fast 😴 

Seven OPEC+ members have provisionally agreed to raise oil output by 188,000 barrels per day in June.

Sounds bullish. There's just one problem.

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

That's the chokepoint that handled nearly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments before the Iran war. Right now, those extra barrels have nowhere to go.

The deal mirrors the 206,000 bpd hike OPEC+ agreed to for May, making this the third consecutive monthly increase from the group.

The seven nations locking this in are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman. The UAE, notably, walked out of the group on Friday.

So OPEC+ is essentially printing production targets on paper while a key artery of global energy supply sits blocked. It's like announcing a road expansion on a route that's currently underwater.

The decision gets finalised at a Sunday policy meeting. Don't expect fireworks.

Until Hormuz reopens, this is a headline, not a catalyst.

TL;DR

• Seven OPEC+ members have agreed to raise June output by ~188,000 bpd

• The move mirrors the May hike of ~206,000 bpd, making it three consecutive monthly increases

• It's largely symbolic — the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to Middle East conflict

• Hormuz previously handled ~20% of global oil and LNG shipments

• The UAE exited OPEC+ on Friday but wasn't blocking the decision

• No real supply impact expected until the Strait reopens

Big Oil's Secret Venezuela Trip 🤫 

Exxon $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) and ConocoPhillips $COP ( ▲ 2.89% ) have sent teams to Venezuela to meet government officials and scope out potential projects. Nobody's written a cheque yet, but the fact they're even in the room is a massive U-turn.

Three months ago, Exxon's CEO called Venezuela "uninvestable."

Now? Darren Woods is singing a very different tune. On Friday's earnings call he said Venezuela is "a huge resource that has now opened up more freely to the world... I feel positive about what's happening."

That's not a subtle shift. That's a full 180.

Exxon's team even inspected the Cerro Negro heavy oil project — the one the Venezuelan government nationalized back in 2007. So yeah, they're serious about kicking the tyres.

New energy laws are doing the heavy lifting here.

Venezuela has rolled out investor-friendly regulations and contract terms that are making the numbers look a lot more attractive to Western majors. High oil prices aren't hurting either.

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 2.39% ) is already laughing.

They never left. While Exxon and Conoco were slamming the door, Chevron stayed put and is now pumping ~250K barrels per day — more than any other foreign producer in the country. CEO Mike Wirth put it plainly: "In any scenario, we remain the advantaged incumbent."

Translation: first mover wins. Again.

And Venezuela's output is already surging.

Oil exports hit 1.23M bbl/day in April, the highest monthly volume since 2018. That's a 14% jump from March, with 66 vessels departing Venezuelan waters vs. 61 the month before.

The taps are opening. The question is who gets to turn them.

TL;DR

• Exxon ($XOM) and ConocoPhillips ($COP) are now physically in Venezuela scoping projects, a sharp reversal from calling it "uninvestable" just three months ago

• Exxon's CEO publicly flipped his stance on Venezuela during last week's earnings call, citing new laws and "attractive investment opportunities"

• No capital committed yet, but teams on the ground signals serious intent

• Chevron ($CVX) is already the dominant foreign producer at ~250K bbl/day and is playing the incumbent card hard

• Venezuela's oil exports jumped 14% in April to 1.23M bbl/day, the highest since 2018

• New investor-friendly energy regulations are the key catalyst driving Big Oil's change of heart

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Why Buffett Still Won't Buy 💰️ 

Warren Buffett handed over the keys to Greg Abel in January. First quarter under new management? $11.3B in operating earnings, up 18% year-over-year.

Not bad for a debut.

What drove it:

• Insurance underwriting hauled in $1.7B — up 29% YoY. Why? Basically nothing catastrophic happened. Sometimes the best win is just not losing.

• BNSF Railroad added $1.4B, up 13%, on higher revenues and leaner operations

• Manufacturing, service & retail chipped in $3.2B — modest 5% growth, but steady

• Berkshire Hathaway Energy contributed $1.1B, helped by natural gas pipelines and tax credits

The one soft spot: insurance investment income dipped 7% to $2.7B as falling interest rates squeezed returns. Lower rates are great for borrowers. Less fun if you're sitting on a mountain of bonds.

About that mountain...

Berkshire's cash pile now sits at $397.4B. That's a small country's GDP.

They did buy back $234M of their own stock. That’s the first repurchase since May 2024. So the engine is idling, not parked.

Buffett at the annual meeting — the highlights:

Buffett was in philosophical form at the Berkshire AGM. A few gems worth keeping:

• On markets: "We have never had more people in a gambling mood than now." He didn't say that's bad. Just... noted.

• On timing: "The time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones." Classic.

• On AI and deepfakes: "It's scary." Two words. No elaboration needed.

• On Jerome Powell: Feels better with him at the Fed than without. Make of that what you will.

• On deploying capital: "It isn't the ideal environment." Translation: still waiting for the fat pitch.

He also confirmed he's still involved in investment decisions, just not scouting new industries. And he praised Greg Abel as "very, very smart" about running businesses.

High praise from a man who doesn't waste words.

TL;DR

• Berkshire posted $11.3B in Q1 operating earnings, up 18% YoY — a strong start for CEO Greg Abel

• Insurance underwriting was the star, up 29%, thanks to a quiet quarter on the catastrophe front

• Cash reserves hit $397.4B — Buffett is still waiting for the right moment to deploy

• First share buybacks since May 2024 at $234M — small, but a signal they're not just hoarding

• Insurance investment income slipped 7% as lower interest rates bite

• Buffett at the AGM: markets feel "casino-like," AI is scary, and the best buying happens when no one picks up the phone

1. Ride the Berkshire Bounce 
Greg Abel's first quarter delivered. $11.3B in operating earnings, buybacks resuming, and the machine running smoothly. The market loves a clean handover.

📌 Action: Add or initiate a position in $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% ) on any near-term dip. This is a long-hold, low-drama compounder with $397B in dry powder ready to deploy.

2. Follow the Insurance Trade 
Berkshire's underwriting unit jumped 29% on the back of a quiet catastrophe quarter. That's the playbook — insurance prints when disasters don't.

📌 Action: Look at insurance-heavy ETFs like $IAK ( ▲ 0.62% ) or individual names like $CB ( ▲ 1.27% ) or $TRV ( ▲ 0.49% ) as long positions while the macro environment stays relatively calm.

3. Back the Railroad 
BNSF grew 13% on higher revenues and efficiency gains. Rail is unglamorous but it moves everything — and when the economy hums, so does freight.

📌 Action: Gain direct exposure via $UNP ( ▲ 0.45% ) or $CSX ( ▼ 0.57% ) — the closest publicly traded pure-play rail comps to BNSF. Both benefit from the same macro tailwinds.

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Trump Just Ended a War. Maybe. 🤔 

Trump sent Congress a letter Friday declaring the US-Iran hostilities "terminated."

No shots fired since April 7. Ceasefire negotiated, then extended. War over, apparently.

The catch? He also made clear he'll launch military action again if he thinks it's necessary. So... sort of over.

Democrats weren't buying it.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the claim "bullshit" on X, labeling it an illegal war and accusing Republicans of staying complicit while "lives are endangered, chaos erupts, and prices increase."

Senator Jeanne Shaheen, top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, put it bluntly: Trump started this war without a strategy or legal authorisation, and Friday's letter doesn't fix either of those problems.

Here's the legal backdrop. The 1973 War Powers Resolution gives Congress the power to force a president to wind down military action after 60 days without authorisation. Trump was staring down that deadline.

Declaring the war "terminated" is a neat way to sidestep it.

The conflict kicked off February 28. Congress wasn't even notified until March 2. Two days after bombs started falling.

Whether this is a genuine off-ramp or a legal workaround dressed up as diplomacy is... open to debate.

TL;DR

• Trump declared US-Iran hostilities "terminated" in a letter to Congress Friday

• No military exchanges since April 7, when a two-week ceasefire was brokered and later extended

• Trump reserved the right to take military action again if he deems it necessary

• Democrats are calling it an illegal war conducted without congressional authorisation

• The announcement conveniently lands just as Trump's 60-day War Powers deadline approached

• Congress was notified two days after the conflict began on February 28

GameStop Wants To Buy WHAT? 😲 

GameStop $GME ( ▼ 0.09% ) is reportedly preparing a takeover offer for eBay, according to the Wall Street Journal. GME has been quietly building a stake in EBAY's shares ahead of a formal bid.

eBay has a market cap north of $46B. GameStop's is just over $11B. So yes, this is a smaller fish trying to eat a bigger fish.

eBay jumped 10.2% after-hours. GME was up 3%.

If eBay plays hard to get, Cohen may go straight to shareholders. Classic hostile takeover energy.

This isn't exactly a surprise. Back in January, Cohen said he wanted to make a "very, very, very big" acquisition of an undervalued consumer company with real growth potential. eBay fits the brief.

Cohen's own pay package makes this crystal clear. He gets nothing unless GME hits a $20B market cap and $2B in cumulative EBITDA. Full vesting only kicks in at $100B market cap and $10B EBITDA.

The man is not here to play small.

Earlier in March, Best Buy was the name doing the rounds as a potential GME target. Now it's eBay. Cohen is clearly shopping.

One more thing: Michael Burry recently added to his GME position. He called it "already decent sized." When the Big Short guy is loading up, people tend to pay attention.

GME is up over 32% year-to-date. The meme stock that wouldn't die is now trying to buy one of the internet's oldest marketplaces.

TL;DR

• GameStop is reportedly preparing a takeover offer for eBay, per the WSJ

• GME has been quietly building a stake in EBAY ahead of a potential bid

• If eBay doesn't play ball, Cohen may go directly to shareholders

• Cohen's compensation is tied to hitting a $100B market cap — so a transformational deal isn't optional, it's the whole strategy

• Best Buy was previously rumoured as a target; eBay is now the frontrunner

• Michael Burry has been adding to his GME position, calling it "already decent sized"

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The Deal Trump Won't Take ❌ 

Iran wants to talk peace. Trump wants a better deal. And somewhere in the middle, oil traders are having a very bad morning.

Trump made it crystal clear Friday: he's not satisfied with Iran's latest proposal.

"Iran wants to make a deal because they have no military left," he told reporters at the White House. Not exactly diplomatic, but very on-brand.

Pakistan has been playing middleman here, passing Iran's updated proposal to U.S. officials. What's in it? Nobody's saying. Classic back-channel energy.

Trump did throw Iran a small bone, saying they've "made strides" in talks. Then immediately took it back: "I'm not sure if they ever get there."

He also went in on Iran's leadership structure, describing it as "very disjointed" with two to four competing factions all pulling in different directions.

Basically: Iran wants a deal, but can't agree on what deal they want. Negotiating with yourself is hard enough. Negotiating with three versions of yourself while a naval blockade chokes your ports? Good luck.

Here's where your portfolio pays attention:

• Oil dipped 1.3% on the peace-talk headlines, with U.S. crude sliding to $103.75/barrel

• But prices are still elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is barely moving oil through, and nobody's reopening it anytime soon

• Iran won't unblock the strait until the U.S. lifts its port blockade. The U.S. isn't lifting anything

Oh, and the Pentagon has reportedly requested deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Gulf. So "peace talks" is doing a lot of heavy lifting as a phrase right now.

The standoff continues. The blockade holds. And energy markets stay on edge.

TL;DR

• Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, calling it insufficient

• Pakistan is mediating, but no details of Iran's offer have been disclosed

• Trump says Iran's leadership is fractured and struggling to reach internal consensus

• Oil slid 1.3% on peace talk hopes, but prices remain elevated due to Hormuz disruption

• Iran won't reopen the Strait unless the U.S. lifts its port blockade — a standoff with no end in sight

• The U.S. has requested deployment of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile to the Gulf region

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The Musk Money Loop Exposed 🔁

Tesla quietly dropped an amended annual filing this week. Inside? Over $500M in revenue from companies that all happen to have the same CEO.

Let that sink in.

$430.1M came from xAI. That's Musk's AI company, flagged back in January but updated in this week's amended filing.

The new addition: $143.3M from SpaceX — mostly vehicle sales. Somehow this didn't make it into the original filing. Whoops.

And it's not slowing down. Tesla already logged $78.1M from xAI in just the first two months of 2026, primarily from Megapack sales. Plus a further $0.1M from SpaceX.

So what exactly is going on here?

Musk is building a closed-loop corporate ecosystem. xAI buys Tesla's batteries. Tesla puts xAI's Grok chatbot in its cars. SpaceX and Tesla are now reportedly teaming up on chip manufacturing.

Then in February, SpaceX acquired xAI outright — rockets, satellites, AI, and plans for space-based data centres, all under one roof.

It's less "tech conglomerate" and more "Elon's personal GDP."

Meanwhile, someone's been cashing out.

Blue Owl Capital was one of SpaceX's earliest backers. Started with a loan in 2021, converted it to equity, and watched a ~$27M position balloon to $195M by end of 2025. A separate Blue Owl vehicle also held a further $21.7M stake in SpaceX at the same date.

They've now sold roughly half their stake at a $1.25T valuation — booking a 10x return in the process.

Their co-CEO put it plainly: "We made about 10x our money." No notes.

The bigger picture?

SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a U.S. listing at $1.75T — which would instantly make it one of the most valuable companies in the country.

A business that didn't exist 24 years ago, valued higher than almost everything on Wall Street.

TL;DR

• Tesla's amended filing reveals $500M+ in revenue from Musk-linked companies in 2024

• $430M from xAI, $143M from SpaceX — the Musk empire is shopping internally

• Cross-company deals are accelerating: batteries, chatbots, chips, and now rockets

• SpaceX acquired xAI in February, consolidating Musk's tech stack into one giant entity

• Blue Owl Capital banked a 10x return selling half its SpaceX stake at a $1.25T valuation

• SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T U.S. listing — one of the biggest floats in history if it happens

8 Companies. 1 Big Loser. 💀 

The Department of Defense has signed agreements with eight major tech companies to deploy their AI on classified military networks.

We're talking OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Nvidia, SpaceX (which owns xAI/Grok), Reflection AI — and Oracle, who crashed the party later in the day, sending its stock up 7%.

What does this actually mean?

These companies will run their frontier AI models inside the DoD's most secure environments — Impact Level 6 and IL7 — covering warfighting, intelligence, and enterprise ops.

Over 1.3 million Pentagon personnel are already using GenAI.mil, the DoD's official AI platform. This just turned the dial up significantly.

The DoD's Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael put it plainly: "This is just the latest initiative in our mandate to create an AI-FIRST WAR DEPARTMENT."

No notes on the energy there.

Now for the awkward table in the corner.

Anthropic (maker of Claude, backed by Amazon and Google) is not on the list.

The DoD dropped Anthropic's contract, called it a supply chain risk, and the two are now in a legal fight. Why? Anthropic refused to give the Pentagon unrestricted access to its models.

Every other company on this list, apparently, did not have that same problem with the terms.

There is a small thaw, though. The Trump Administration reportedly softened its stance slightly after Anthropic dropped its new flagship model, Claude Mythos Preview, described as its most capable model yet for coding and agentic tasks.

Michael told CNBC that Mythos is being handled "government-wide." So a door may still be open. Just not right now.

The bigger picture?

Silicon Valley is clearly choosing a side. The DoD is building an AI-first military operation and it wants partners who will play ball… fully and on classified networks.

Anthropic drew a line. Everyone else handed over their pens.

TL;DR

• The Pentagon signed AI deployment deals with OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Nvidia, SpaceX/xAI, Reflection AI, and Oracle

• These models will run on the DoD's most classified networks (IL6 and IL7)

• Over 1.3M military personnel already use the DoD's GenAI.mil platform

• Anthropic is the notable holdout — locked in a legal dispute after refusing unrestricted model access

• The DoD dropped Anthropic's contract and labeled the company a supply chain risk

• A partial thaw may be coming via Anthropic's new Claude Mythos Preview model, but nothing is resolved yet

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China Just Saved Apple 🍎 

Apple just dropped its best March quarter ever, crushed Wall Street's expectations on almost every metric, and the market's response?

A 1.1% after-hours dip.

Welcome to modern investing, where good news is never good enough.

The numbers were genuinely impressive.

Revenue hit $111.18B, up 17% year-over-year, beating the $109.66B estimate. EPS came in at $2.01, clearing the $1.96 forecast with room to spare.

Here's where it gets interesting — every single segment beat.

• 📱 iPhone: $56.99B (est. $56.98B) — practically called the shot

• 💻 Mac: $8.4B, up 5.7% YoY

• ⌚ Wearables: $7.9B, up 5% YoY

• 📱 iPad: $6.91B vs $6.65B expected

• ☁️ Services: $30.98B, up 16% YoY — another all-time record

China was the real story. Revenue from Greater China surged 28% YoY to $20.5B, smashing the $18.91B estimate.

Tim Cook called it Apple's "best March quarter ever" and credited the iPhone 17 lineup, the newly launched MacBook Neo, and the M4-powered iPad Air for driving demand.

Services hit yet another all-time record. At $31B a quarter, it's basically a Fortune 500 company hiding inside a phone manufacturer.

The shareholder returns were solid too.

Apple bumped its quarterly dividend 4% to $0.27 per share, payable May 14. The board also greenlit another $100B share buyback program.

One analyst called the dividend increase "another annual small increase" — which is fair — but a $100B buyback authorization is not something you shrug off. That's Apple saying: we still think we're cheap.

What's next?

Q3 is where things get trickier. Tougher year-over-year comparisons kick in, and the performance of the MacBook Neo is being flagged as critical by analysts. The product's generating buzz… but buzz has to convert to units.

The real test isn't what Apple just did. It's what it does when the comparisons stop being easy.

TL;DR

• Apple reported its best ever March quarter — $111.18B revenue, $2.01 EPS, both above estimates

• Every single segment beat forecasts, including iPhone, Mac, Services, iPad, and Wearables

• Greater China revenue surged 28% YoY to $20.5B — the standout of the quarter

• Stock still dipped 1.1% after hours — markets wanted more, apparently

• Dividend raised 4% to $0.27/share; $100B buyback program authorised

• Q3 faces tougher comparisons — MacBook Neo performance flagged as the key variable to watch

1. Buy the Dip on AAPL 
The market punished Apple for beating every single estimate. That's not a fundamental problem — that's an overreaction. When great companies drop on great news, that's often the entry point you've been waiting for.

📌 Action: Add or initiate a position in $AAPL ( ▲ 0.68% ) on weakness. Set a target around the next earnings cycle when MacBook Neo data comes in.

2. Ride the Services Mega-Trend 
Apple Services hit $31B in a single quarter and is still growing at 16% YoY. This is recurring, high-margin revenue that the market consistently undervalues. It's not a phone company anymore.

📌 Action: If you're not comfortable with AAPL directly, consider a broad tech ETF with heavy Apple weighting like $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) or $VGT ( ▼ 1.63% ) to capture the Services growth story.

3. Watch China as a Leading Indicator 
A 28% YoY revenue surge from Greater China is a massive signal and it's not just an Apple story. It suggests consumer demand in China is recovering faster than most expect.

📌 Action: Use this as a cue to look at China consumer exposure ETFs like $KWEB ( ▼ 3.53% ) or $FXI ( ▼ 2.79% ) . If Apple is selling this well there, the broader recovery trade may just be getting started.

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They Finally Did It ⏱️ 

Tesla just rolled the first Semi off its new high-volume production line at Gigafactory Nevada.

And yes, that's a big deal. This isn't a one-off prototype. This is the line meant to actually scale.

Tesla posted the news on X with the message "First Semi off high volume line" — deliveries are expected to start later this year.

Tesla’s official tweet

Quick backstory (the short version):

• Semi was unveiled in 2017

• Tesla promised production by 2019

• It missed that deadline. Three times.

• A handful of units finally reached PepsiCo in late 2022

So forgive us if we're cautiously optimistic.

Now for the numbers that matter.

The Semi comes in two flavours:

• 325-mile range — ~$260,000

• 500-mile range — ~$290,000

Compare that to the competition:

• Daimler's Freightliner eCascadia — $400,000+

• Volvo's electric trucks — $276,000 to $440,000+

Tesla is the cheapest option in the segment. By a stretch.

If you're a fleet operator choosing between a $290k Tesla and a $400k Daimler, that's not really a choice. That's a spreadsheet that sells itself.

The real question isn't whether Tesla can build the truck. It's whether they can build enough of them, fast enough, to matter.

TL;DR

• Tesla rolled out its first Semi from a new high-volume production line at Gigafactory Nevada

• Deliveries expected to begin later this year

• Priced at $260k (325-mile) and $290k (500-mile)

• Significantly cheaper than rivals — Daimler charges $400k+, Volvo up to $440k+

• The Semi has been delayed three times since its 2017 reveal

• The big watch item: can Tesla actually scale production this time?

Europe's Chip Dream Is Dying 🤕 

The EU is taking another swing at fixing its semiconductor problem.

A revamped Chips Act II is expected to drop in late May. And this time Brussels wants the power to invest directly in chip manufacturing plants… not just wave money at member states and hope for the best.

Why the upgrade? 

The original Chips Act, launched in 2023, was basically a middleman operation. The European Commission could fund research and rubber-stamp national aid packages, but couldn't actually write cheques to build fabs. The new draft changes that.

Under the proposal, the Commission could co-invest in large, cross-border manufacturing projects as a direct partner. Public-private partnerships, but with Brussels actually at the table.

The original plan isn't looking great right now.

The EU set an ambitious target: control 20% of global chip production by 2030. The starting point was around 10%. The European Court of Auditors now estimates the bloc will hit roughly 12% — meaning after billions in incentives, they've barely moved the needle.

Intel's collapse didn't help. In 2024 it paused its Poland and Germany projects, including a planned €30B Dresden facility that was supposed to be the crown jewel of the whole programme.

The structural problem was always funding math.

The Commission only directly controlled €4.5B of the total €86B package. The rest relied on national governments and private chipmakers to show up. They largely didn't. And the companies that did apply complained about bureaucratic delays stacking up across multiple approval layers.

Chips Act II also wants to boost the broader supply chain — machinery, materials, circuit boards. The stuff that makes chipmaking possible, not just the chips themselves.

Nothing is final. The proposal still needs multiple rounds of negotiation between EU governments and the European Parliament before it becomes law. Rules could change significantly before then.

TL;DR

• Chips Act II is coming in late May, giving the European Commission direct investment powers in chip fabs for the first time

• The original Chips Act was limited to research funding and approving national aid — this upgrades that significantly

• The EU's 20% global market share target by 2030 is basically dead — auditors now forecast ~12%

• Intel's factory pullbacks in Germany and Poland were a major blow to the original programme

• Bureaucratic red tape across multiple funding layers slowed everything down — the new version aims to streamline

• The broader goal: cut reliance on foreign chip supply chains and build out the full manufacturing ecosystem, not just the fabs

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Trump’s Secret Strike Plan 🤫 

The U.S. is keeping its naval blockade on Iran in place until nuclear talks happen. Not after. Not during. First.

Trump, never one to undersell a metaphor, told Axios: "They are choking like a stuffed pig."

He claims Iran's oil storage and pipelines are close to bursting because they can't export a drop. Some analysts think that's a stretch. Either way, the pressure is real.

Here's where it gets spicy.

U.S. Central Command has reportedly drawn up plans for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Trump hasn't pulled that trigger yet. He sees the blockade as the better weapon for now.

Iran isn't staying quiet. A senior Iranian security source warned the blockade will be met with "practical and unprecedented action." Patience is running out.

Why this matters to markets:

• A prolonged blockade = oil supply constrained = energy prices stay elevated

• Higher energy prices = inflation stays stickier than expected

• Sticky inflation = the Fed stays cautious = rate cuts get pushed further out

• That's bad news for growth stocks and anyone betting on a soft landing

There's also a political angle. Trump's approval ratings are already under pressure… and expensive oil doesn't exactly win votes ahead of midterms.

The military option is on the table. Diplomacy is stalled. And the Gulf is getting tense.

TL;DR

• Trump rejected Iran's demand to lift the blockade before nuclear talks begin

• He's treating the blockade as his primary leverage, calling it more effective than bombing

• U.S. Central Command has strike plans ready, but no order has been given yet

• Iran is warning of "unprecedented" retaliation if the blockade continues

• Extended blockade = higher oil prices = inflation headache = Fed stays hawkish

• Midterm politics adds pressure on Trump to resolve this fast

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Is Amazon Quietly Losing Cash? 💰️ 

$AMZN ( ▼ 1.15% ) dipped 3.18% after hours despite beating on pretty much everything that matters.

Here's the scorecard:

• Total revenue: $181.5B (+16.6% YoY) vs. $177.2B expected

• North America revenue: $104.1B (+12% YoY) vs. $102.1B expected

• International revenue: $39.8B (+19% YoY) vs. $38.7B expected

• AWS revenue: $37.6B (+28% YoY) vs. $36.7B expected

• Operating income: $23.9B vs. $20.8B expected

AWS is still the golden goose. A 28% jump and a clean beat on estimates.

The one number that raised eyebrows?

Free cash flow cratered to $1.2B for the trailing twelve months. The culprit: a $59.3B increase in property and equipment spending, mostly AI infrastructure.

Basically, Amazon is spending like it's building a second internet. Andy Jassy called it "some of the biggest inflections of our lifetime." No pressure.

What's coming in Q2?

• Revenue guidance: $194B to $199B (midpoint $196.5B) vs. $189.5B consensus

• Operating income guidance: $20B to $24B (midpoint $22B) vs. $22.9B consensus

• Prime Day is baked into that Q2 outlook, which is doing some heavy lifting

The guidance midpoint trails slightly on operating income vs. what the Street wanted. That's probably why the stock shrugged.

TL;DR

• Amazon beat revenue and profit estimates across the board in Q1

• AWS grew 28% YoY, cementing its role as the business that funds everything else

• Operating income hit $23.9B, blowing past the $20.8B consensus

• Free cash flow collapsed to $1.2B as AI capex spending surged $59.3B YoY

• Q2 revenue guidance of up to $199B topped expectations; operating income guidance was roughly in line

• Stock barely moved after hours, because Wall Street is apparently impossible to impress

Microsoft's $37B weapon revealed ⚔️ 

$MSFT ( ▲ 3.05% ) shares slid 2.23% after hours despite the company posting a quarter that was better than expected on basically every metric that matters.

Here's the scorecard:

• Revenue: $82.89B, up 18% year-over-year (analysts wanted $81.46B)

• EPS: $4.27 adjusted (analysts wanted $4.05)

• Azure growth: 40% year-over-year

• Total cloud revenue: $54.5B

• AI annual run rate: $37B, up 123% year-over-year

That Azure number is the one to watch. 40% growth on a business that size isn't easy.

The Intelligent Cloud division alone pulled in $34.7B. For context, that's more than most companies make in a year. Full stop.

Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud grew 19%. LinkedIn up 12%. Dynamics 365 up 22%. The whole portfolio is moving in one direction.

CEO Satya Nadella said the AI business just crossed a $37B annual run rate, up 123% year-over-year. That's not a side project anymore. That's a core revenue engine.

CFO Amy Hood called it results that "exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income, and EPS." Hard to argue.

So why the after-hours dip? Markets are weird. Sometimes investors sell the news. Sometimes guidance whispers matter more than results. We'll know more when the call wraps.

Remaining performance obligations hit $627B — basically a giant backlog of future revenue already locked in. Analyst Michael Del Monte put it simply: "the cloud growth model remains intact."

Intact is an understatement.

TL;DR

• Microsoft beat on revenue ($82.89B vs $81.46B expected) and EPS ($4.27 vs $4.05)

• Azure grew 40% year-over-year — the standout number of the quarter

• AI revenue surpassed a $37B annual run rate, up 123% YoY

• Total cloud revenue hit $54.5B with strength across 365, LinkedIn, and Dynamics

• Remaining performance obligations sit at $627B — a massive locked-in pipeline

• Stock still fell 1.8% after hours, because markets gonna market

Google Just Silenced the Bears 🐻 

Alphabet $GOOG ( ▼ 0.97% ) dropped its Q1 earnings after hours. The market liked what it saw. The stock is up 6.53% after hours.

Revenue hit $109.9B, up 22% year-over-year, smashing analyst expectations of $107B. That's 11 straight quarters of double-digit growth. Not bad for a company people keep trying to write off.

The headline numbers:

• Net income: $62.6B (+81%) — boosted heavily by unrealized equity gains

• Operating income: $39.7B (+30%)

• Operating margin: 36%, up from 34% a year ago

The real story? Cloud is on fire.

Google Cloud pulled in $20B in revenue — up 63%. Operating income there tripled to $6.6B.

The backlog nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to over $460 billion.

Search isn't dying either.

Everyone's been asking whether AI Overviews would cannibalize Google Search revenue. The answer, for now, is a firm no.

Search revenue grew 19% to $60.4B. Queries are at an all-time high. Turns out people still Google things, even when ChatGPT exists.

The spending reality check.

Alphabet is writing massive cheques to build AI infrastructure. Capex more than doubled year-over-year to $35.67B in Q1 alone — with full-year spend potentially hitting $185B.

The bill is real. Free cash flow dropped 47% to $10.1B.

But here's the thing: operating margins are expanding while R&D costs rise. That's the sign of a company that's actually monetising AI, not just throwing money at it.

Other stuff worth noting:

• YouTube ads: $9.88B (+10.7%)

• Google subscriptions & devices: $12.38B (+19.3%)

• Google Network: $6.97B (-3.9%) — the slow bleed continues

• Other Bets: still losing money (-$2.1B operating loss)

• Quarterly dividend bumped 5% to $0.22/share

CEO Sundar Pichai called it a "terrific start" to the year. Given the numbers, he's earned the bragging rights.

TL;DR

• Alphabet beat Q1 estimates with $109.9B in revenue (+22%) and an 81% jump in net income

• Google Cloud was the star — up 63%, with a $460B+ backlog and tripled operating income

• Search grew 19% — AI features are boosting queries, not killing them

• Capex more than doubled to $35.67B, with full-year spend potentially hitting $185B

• Free cash flow fell 47%, but operating margins expanded — AI is actually making money

• A 5% dividend hike rounds it off — Alphabet is spending big and still sharing the wealth

Meta Won. Markets Still Sold. 📉 

$META ( ▼ 0.68% ) beat on revenue. Beat on earnings. Grew ads like it was nothing.

And the market still threw a tantrum. Down 6.58% after hours.

Here's what actually happened.

The numbers were genuinely impressive.

Revenue hit $56.3B — up 33% year-over-year and ahead of the $55.5B Wall Street was expecting.

Ad revenue? Up 33% to $55B. Family of Apps revenue? Up 34% to $55.9B. Both beat.

On the bottom line, Meta earned $10.44 per share — up 62% year-over-year and nearly $4 ahead of estimates.

So what's spooking investors?

Two things. Neither of them is the core business.

1. CapEx got a big upgrade.

Meta now expects to spend $125B to $145B in capital expenditures this year — up from the previous $115B–$135B range.

Higher component prices. More data center build-out. The AI arms race isn't cheap.

2. Reality Labs is still bleeding.

The VR division lost another $4.03B this quarter. It's basically a very expensive hobby at this point.

Q2 guidance was... fine. Just fine.

Meta guided for $58B–$61B in Q2 revenue, with a midpoint of $59.5B — right in line with expectations.

Not a disaster. Not a blowout. Just fine.

Full-year expenses remain unchanged at $162B–$169B, so at least that held steady.

One more thing worth noting.

Daily active users dipped quarter-over-quarter. But the culprit was internet disruptions in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia. Not user fatigue.

Context matters.

Analysts general consensus is: "META is worth a buy at these prices just based on its ad business — even if we don't see any AI returns in the short term."

In other words: the engine is fine. The market is just scared of the fuel bill.

TL;DR

• Meta beat on revenue ($56.3B, +33% YoY) and EPS ($10.44, +62% YoY) — both well ahead of estimates

• Ad business remains the golden goose, growing 33% with no signs of slowing

• CapEx guidance raised to $125B–$145B (from $115B–$135B) — the AI buildout is getting pricier

• Reality Labs lost another $4B this quarter, as it has basically every quarter forever

• Q2 guidance was in-line, not exciting — which disappointed a market expecting fireworks

• Analysts broadly bullish: the ad engine alone justifies the valuation, AI upside is a free option

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One Exit Changed Oil Forever 📈 

The United Arab Emirates has left OPEC.

Not a rumour. Not a threat. Done.

What is OPEC? A group chat of oil-producing countries that agree on how much oil to sell (so they can all charge you more for it.)

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNBC it followed a "very careful and long review"… which is diplomat-speak for we've wanted out for a while.

The core reason: flexibility.

The UAE has a target of pumping 5 million barrels per day by 2027. OPEC's production quotas were getting in the way of that, plus the country's gas and petrochemical ambitions.

When you're that ambitious, a cartel telling you to slow down gets old fast.

What about Saudi Arabia?

The minister was quick to say this isn't a beef with Riyadh. Called it a "pure policy change." Expressed "continued respect" for OPEC members.

Sure. Very respectful. Also very done with OPEC.

Here's the context that makes this spicy.

The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Global supply is already stretched. The minister argued that's actually why the exit is fine. The UAE pumping freely helps consumers, not hurts them.

"We need to be on the side of the consumer," he said.

Noble framing. Also extremely convenient timing.

Markets didn't overthink it.

Oil jumped 3.5%, pushing crude just under the $100/barrel mark.

Investors read the UAE exit as a crack in OPEC's coordination — less discipline, tighter supply, higher prices.

Energy stocks led the entire S&P 500 on Tuesday.

Top 10 S&P 500 energy movers:

• $CTRA ( ▼ 8.62% ), $OXY ( ▲ 4.89% ), $OKE ( ▲ 1.42% ) — +2.9%

• $TRGP ( ▲ 1.69% ), $DVN ( ▲ 4.76% ) — +2.8%

• $KMI ( ▲ 0.69% ) — +2.7%

• $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) — +2.5%

• $CVX ( ▲ 2.39% ) — +2.4%

• $EQT ( ▼ 0.62% ), $WMB ( ▲ 0.04% ) — +2.3%

ETFs catching the wave: Energy: $XLE ( ▲ 2.36% ) , $VDE ( ▲ 2.17% ) , $XOP ( ▲ 2.9% ) , $OIH ( ▼ 0.21% ) , $AMLP ( ▲ 0.33% ) , $IXC ( ▲ 1.82% ) Oil: $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) , $UCO ( ▲ 4.26% ) , $DBO ( ▲ 3.08% ) , $OILK ( ▲ 2.22% ) , $USL ( ▲ 2.07% ) Natural Gas: $UNG ( ▲ 1.52% ) , $BOIL ( ▲ 2.01% ) , $UNL ( ▲ 0.94% )  

TL;DR

• The UAE has officially exited OPEC, citing the need for "agility" to hit its 5M bpd production target by 2027

• The minister denied any Saudi fallout — called it a policy move, not a political one

• With the Strait of Hormuz still closed, the UAE framed its exit as pro-consumer

• Oil surged 3.5%, nearly touching $100/barrel on supply coordination fears

• Energy stocks led the S&P 500 on Tuesday, with broad gains across E&P and midstream names

• Watch energy ETFs — XLE, XOP, and USO all caught a strong tailwind from the news

1. Ride the Oil Supply Squeeze 
The UAE leaving OPEC chips away at production discipline. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and crude already flirting with $100, the supply story isn't going away anytime soon.

📌 Action: Add exposure to oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) or $UCO ( ▲ 4.26% ) on any pullback. The trend is still pointing up.

2. Stack the Energy Producers 
Markets rewarded E&P stocks across the board on Tuesday. If oil holds near $100, companies like $OXY ( ▲ 4.89% ) , $DVN ( ▲ 4.76% ) , and $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) print bigger margins with every barrel they sell.

📌 Action: Build a small basket of 2–3 energy producers. $OXY ( ▲ 4.89% ) and $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) are the safer bets. $DVN ( ▲ 4.76% ) has more upside if oil runs.

3. Let the UAE Do the Work via Midstream 
The UAE wants 5M barrels per day by 2027. More production means more pipelines, more infrastructure, more cash flow for midstream players — regardless of where oil prices land.

📌 Action: Look at $KMI ( ▲ 0.69% ) or $OKE ( ▲ 1.42% ) for steadier, lower-volatility exposure. You get energy upside without betting directly on the oil price.

The Market Missed These

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He Knows Something You Don't 🧠 

JPMorgan's CEO doesn't do panic. So when Jamie Dimon walks into an investment conference and says "there will be some kind of bond crisis"… you listen.

He's not saying the sky is falling. He's saying the ladder is already wobbling.

Here's his actual quote, stripped of the politeness:

"The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we'll have to deal with it."

His bigger gripe? That policymakers are playing "wait and see" with a problem that's very much seeable right now.

"Maturity should say you should deal with it, as opposed to letting it happen."

What he’s really saying? Adults in the room, where are you?

Dimon flagged a growing pile of risks that could collide at the worst moment:

• Geopolitical instability — still very much unresolved

• Oil prices — unpredictable and politically sensitive

• Government deficits — ballooning with no real plan in sight

The scary part isn't any one of these. It's that nobody knows which combination lights the fuse.

"We don't know what confluence of events causes the problem." — Dimon, basically describing a financial game of Jenga.

He's not losing sleep over whether America can handle a crisis when it arrives. He's losing sleep over the fact that it doesn't have to arrive at all.

TL;DR

• Jamie Dimon says a bond market crisis is coming if nothing changes

• He's frustrated policymakers aren't acting before it hits

• Key risks piling up: geopolitics, oil, and runaway government deficits

• The danger isn't one trigger — it's an unknown combination of several

• Dimon believes the crisis is manageable, but thinks prevention is the smarter play

• Bottom line: one of the most powerful bankers alive is waving a yellow flag — probably worth a glance

Why Your Stocks Could Crash 📉 

Ray Dalio thinks wealth taxes could blow up the market.

Not because rich people hate taxes (they do), but because of how wealth actually works.

Most billionaire-level wealth isn't sitting in a bank account. It's locked up in stocks, real estate, and private investments. Assets, not cash.

So when the tax bill arrives? They have to sell something to pay it.

That's where it gets messy.

Dalio's argument is simple: forced selling = downward pressure on prices. Do that at scale, across thousands of high-net-worth individuals, and you've got a self-reinforcing spiral.

He's seen it before. During past market bubbles, liquidity crunches triggered waves of asset sales. Which accelerated the very crash everyone was trying to avoid.

A poorly timed wealth tax? Same energy.

Now add AI to the mix. Dalio is genuinely bullish on it. He thinks it'll supercharge productivity and cut long-term costs.

But the flip side is ugly. Mass job displacement. A wider gap between asset owners and everyone else.

That's the exact political environment where wealth tax proposals gain traction. Which means the pressure isn't going away.

The irony? The policy designed to close the gap could end up rattling the market that most people's pensions depend on.

TL;DR

• Dalio warns wealth taxes could trigger forced asset liquidations at scale, putting downward pressure on markets

• Most wealth is held in illiquid assets — stocks, real estate, private holdings — not cash

• Selling pressure from tax-driven liquidations could amplify market downturns, not just slow wealth accumulation

• He's seen similar dynamics play out in past bubble collapses, where liquidity needs accelerated selloffs

• Dalio is bullish on AI's productivity upside, but warns it will widen the wealth gap and fuel political pressure for redistribution

• The policy meant to fix inequality could end up destabilizing the very markets ordinary investors rely on

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Buffett's Gone. Time To Buy? 🤔 

Warren Buffett's baby is having a rough year, and that might be exactly the point.

$BRK.A ( ▼ 0.46% )  BRK.A is down 6% year-to-date to $706,000. Class B shares sit at $470. Since Buffett dropped his retirement bombshell last May, Berkshire has shed 13% while the S&P 500 is up 26%.

That's a nearly 40-percentage-point gap. Let that sink in.

Berkshire is having a stinker YTD

The stock now trades below 1.4x estimated Q1 book value, down from 1.8x a year ago. The market is pricing in a lot of uncertainty about life after Buffett.

But here's where it gets interesting.

Longtime Berkshire analyst Chris Bloomstran puts intrinsic value at $855,000 per share — about 21% above where it trades today. UBS has a Buy rating with an $871,000 price target, pointing to Berkshire's diversified earnings and its absolutely ridiculous $373 billion cash pile.

One investor called it "the ultimate HALO company — heavy assets, low obsolescence." Think: a railroad, an energy business, and one of the most profitable insurance operations on the planet. Not exactly the stuff that gets disrupted by an AI chatbot.

New CEO Greg Abel takes the wheel at year-end, and the market clearly isn't thrilled about the transition. But Berkshire's actual business hasn't changed.

Oh, and Berkshire started buying back its own stock again in March after a two-year pause, picking up $200M+ worth. With shares lower since then, that program may have quietly ramped up.

Earnings drop May 2. Same day as the annual meeting. Could be a catalyst.

TL;DR

• BRK shares are down ~13% since Buffett's retirement announcement; the S&P is up 26% in the same stretch

• The stock now trades at under 1.4x book value, well below its historical range

• Analysts peg intrinsic value 21% above current price

• $373 billion cash position gives new CEO Greg Abel serious firepower

• Buybacks resumed in March after a near two-year break

• Earnings and annual meeting both land May 2 — watch closely

1. Buy the Buffett Discount Berkshire is trading 21% below what analysts think it's actually worth. The market is spooked by the CEO change. The business hasn't changed.

📌 Action: Pick up $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% ) shares now while they're under 1.4x book value. Set a target around the $520–$540 range analysts are pointing at. Hold through the May 2 earnings catalyst.

2. Ride the Buyback Signal When a company with $373 billion in cash starts buying its own stock back after a two-year pause, that's not a coincidence. That's the company saying "we're cheap."

📌 Action: Follow Berkshire's lead. Add $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% ) on dips. Buyback programmes tend to put a floor under a stock. Let them do the heavy lifting.

3. Use Berkshire As Your Recession Hedge 
Insurance, railroads, energy. These don't go to zero when the economy wobbles. With the S&P running hot, Berkshire's 13% underperformance makes it a cheap defensive play.

📌 Action: Rotate a portion of any frothy tech or growth holdings into $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% ) as a ballast position. You get stability, upside potential, and a war chest that could deploy at any moment.

The Smart Money Is Already Moving

Wall Street just made a massive move into a small group of stocks tied to AI, energy, and emerging tech.

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NYC's Secret Casino Opens Soon 🎰 

New York City is about to get its first-ever live casino table games. And it's happening next week.

Resorts World New York City is set to open at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, pending final sign-off from the New York Gaming Commission.

The $5.5 billion upgrade

Resorts World didn't just slap a roulette wheel on an existing slot floor.

They spent $5.5B transforming what was a video lottery terminal operation into a full-scale casino resort. It's run by Malaysia's Genting Group, which already operates casinos in Las Vegas, Singapore, the UK, and beyond. So they know what they're doing.

What this means for NYC

Until now, if you wanted a blackjack table in New York City, your options were basically: drive to Atlantic City, Connecticut, or stare sadly at your phone.

That changes next week.

Resorts World is positioned to catch casual locals and the flood of high-rollers and international tourists who run through NYC but have had zero options once they land.

More competition is coming — eventually

Two more licenses were approved in December. Hard Rock (backed by Mets owner Steve Cohen) is building near Citi Field in Queens, and Bally's $BALY ( ▼ 1.94% ) is going up in the Bronx near Ferry Point.

But here's the kicker: both are ground-up builds, with 2030 opening targets.

That gives Resorts World a multi-year monopoly on full casino gaming in New York City.

Atlantic City and Foxwoods just felt a chill.

TL;DR

• Resorts World NYC opens next week as the city's first-ever live casino with table games

• A $5.5B expansion turned a slot-machine floor at Aqueduct Racetrack into a full-scale casino

• Operated by Genting Group, a seasoned global casino operator

• Targets both local gamblers and NYC's massive international tourist base

• Two more licenses approved: Hard Rock near Citi Field and Bally's in the Bronx

• Both rivals are 2030 builds — giving Resorts World years as the only game in town 

1. Ride the Resorts World Monopoly Window
NYC's first live casino is open — and the next competitors won't arrive until 2030. That's years of captured foot traffic, tourist spend, and high-roller revenue with zero local competition.

📌 Action: Look at Genting Group $GENT on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The NYC operation is a major growth catalyst and the market may not have fully priced in the monopoly runway.

2. Bet on the Broader NYC Gaming Boom
Three casino licenses approved. Billions in construction. A new entertainment vertical opening up in the most visited city on earth. The rising tide lifts all boats.

📌 Action: Consider Bally's $BALY ( ▼ 1.94% ) as a speculative long. It's early stage on the NYC project but a confirmed license holder — meaning long-term upside if you're willing to be patient until the 2030 build-out materialises.

3. Play the Atlantic City Bleed
Every dollar spent at Resorts World Queens is a dollar not going to MGM's Borgata or Caesars Atlantic City. NYC locals and tourists now have a closer, shinier option.

📌 Action: Monitor $MGM ( ▲ 0.44% ) and $CZR ( ▲ 2.36% ) for weakness in their Atlantic City revenue lines. If earnings show regional casino softness, that's your signal to reduce exposure or rotate into operators with stronger NYC or Las Vegas weighting.

This Could End OpenAI 😨 

A California judge tossed Musk's fraud claims against OpenAI in the bin on Friday.

But before you call it a win for Sam Altman, there's a catch.

A trial still kicks off April 27 — covering Musk's breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment claims. So this fight is far from over.

Here's the backstory in 10 seconds:

• Musk helped found OpenAI as a non-profit

• He left the board in 2018

• OpenAI then took billions from Microsoft and spun up a for-profit arm in 2019

• Musk's take: that's a betrayal of the original mission

He's now asking the court to flip OpenAI back to non-profit status, boot both Altman and President Greg Brockman from their roles, and hand him $150 billion in damages — which would go to OpenAI's charitable division, not his pocket.

Yes, $150 billion. With a B.

Microsoft currently holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, making it the world's most expensive "charity project" depending on who you ask.

Musk isn't suing for money for himself here. He's suing to blow the whole thing up.

TL;DR

• Judge dismissed Musk's fraud claims against OpenAI on Friday

• But a trial still starts April 27 on breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment

• Musk's core argument: OpenAI ditched its non-profit roots by taking Microsoft's money

• Microsoft now owns 27% of the company

• Musk wants OpenAI reverted to non-profit, Altman and Brockman removed

• He's seeking $150B in damages — proceeds would go to OpenAI's charitable arm

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Seize First. Negotiate Later. 🤝 

The Trump administration has frozen $344 million in cryptocurrency allegedly linked to Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions on multiple wallets tied to the country, with Tether stepping in to do the actual blocking across two addresses.

Tether's role here is worth paying attention to. The stablecoin giant confirmed it worked directly with U.S. authorities after receiving intel on "unlawful conduct" tied to those wallets. That's $344M in USDT that isn't going anywhere.

So the U.S. seized Iran's crypto with one hand...

...and extended the other for a handshake.

Trump is sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad this weekend for talks with Iran's foreign minister. The goal? A potential deal on Tehran's nuclear material, something Witkoff and Kushner have been quietly working on for months.

JD Vance is sitting this round out, though he's on standby if talks get serious. Iran's parliamentary speaker is also skipping, so it's a mid-tier meeting for now.

Classic diplomatic poker: freeze their assets, then offer a seat at the table.

Oil is watching closely. Crude futures dipped slightly to $93/barrel, while Brent held around $104. Markets aren't panicking yet, but Iran-related headlines have a habit of changing that fast.

TL;DR

• The U.S. froze $344M in USDT allegedly tied to Iran via Treasury sanctions

• Tether confirmed it supported the freeze across two crypto wallets after working with U.S. authorities

• Separately, Trump is sending Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan this weekend for nuclear talks with Iran's foreign minister

• JD Vance is on standby but not attending the opening round

• The dual approach (sanctions + diplomacy) suggests the U.S. is applying pressure while keeping a back channel open

• Crude at $93, Brent at $104 — oil markets are calm for now, but this situation has escalation written all over it

11 Reasons Why You’re Still Broke

The Market Missed These

While most investors chase the same overpriced mega-caps, a handful of under-$10 stocks are quietly showing signs of a turnaround. Our analysts identified 10 with real upside that Wall Street hasn't caught on to yet.

The names, the numbers, and the case for each are all in The 10 Best Cheap Stocks to Own in 2026 report.

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Did You Miss the 9.5% Surge? 📈 

Prediction market Kalshi now shows 26.3% of bettors pricing in an S&P 500 hit of 8,000 or above before December 31.

That number was sitting at just 10% at the March lows. So yeah, sentiment has done a full 180.

61.2% of investors expect the index to clear 7,600 by year-end. Nearly half (44%) are backing 7,800+.

Live odds for the S&P500 on Kalshi

And honestly? The market is doing its best to prove them right.

The S&P 500 hit fresh intraday highs on Friday, up 0.8% on the day. It's now up 4.7% year-to-date and has ripped 9.5% in just the past month.

That's a statement.

The people betting real money are clearly not scared of heights right now.

TL;DR

• Kalshi bettors now give a 26% chance of S&P 500 hitting 8,000+ by year-end

• That's up from just 10% at the March lows — sentiment has flipped hard

• 61% of bettors expect the index to reach at least 7,600 by December

• 44% are backing 7,800 or higher

• The S&P 500 hit fresh intraday highs Friday, up 0.8% on the session

• Index is now +4.7% YTD and up a monster 9.5% over the past month

They Know About Your Bitcoin 😬 

Palantir — the data surveillance company that built tools for the Pentagon and CIA — has been quietly helping the IRS dig through your financial life since 2018.

No big deal, right?

Here's what's actually happening.

The IRS Criminal Investigation Division uses Palantir's Lead and Case Analytics platform to search, aggregate, and visualise connections across millions of records spanning thousands of linked federal databases.

We're talking:

• Individual tax returns and forms

• Bank statements and transactions

• Affordable Care Act data

• FinCEN financial crime records

• Crypto wallets — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple

Basically, if it exists in a federal database, Palantir can stitch it together into a neat little map of your financial life.

The IRS has paid over $130 million to Palantir for the privilege.

Why people are worried.

Non-profit watchdog American Oversight obtained the contract documents and flagged the obvious concern: this is an enormous amount of sensitive personal data consolidated into one system, run by a private contractor notorious for opaque government deployments.

American Oversight's director put it bluntly: "When the government can map relationships, track behavior, and generate investigative leads across data sets at this scale, the question isn't just what it can do — it's who it will be used against."

That's the kind of quote that keeps civil liberties lawyers up at night.

The Palantir angle.

For $PLTR ( ▲ 0.19% ) investors, this is a reminder that government contracts are Palantir's bread and butter. $130M from the IRS alone. And these deals tend to expand, not shrink.

The business model isn't complicated: get in, get embedded, get indispensable.

Whether that's a feature or a bug depends entirely on which side of the audit you're on.

TL;DR

• Palantir has been helping the IRS analyse citizen financial data since 2018 via its Lead and Case Analytics platform

• The system connects millions of records across thousands of federal databases, including tax returns, bank data, and crypto wallets

• The IRS has paid Palantir $130M+ for the contract to date

• Watchdog group American Oversight raised concerns about mass data consolidation with minimal transparency

• The core worry: a private contractor running surveillance-grade infrastructure on behalf of the government, with little public oversight

• For PLTR bulls, it's another reminder the company is deeply embedded in federal operations — and those contracts don't go away quietly

1. Ride the Government AI Gravy Train 
Palantir just reminded everyone that AI-powered government contracts are massive, sticky, and growing. Where Palantir leads, others follow.

📌 Action: Add or build a position in $PLTR ( ▲ 0.19% ) . Also look at $BBAI ( ▼ 6.85% ) and $SAIC ( ▲ 0.3% ) as indirect plays on the federal data intelligence boom. Hold medium-term as government AI spending accelerates.

2. Bet on the Privacy Tech Backlash 
Every surveillance story like this one drives demand for privacy tools. VPNs, encrypted comms, and cybersecurity firms all get a quiet boost when trust in government data handling drops.

📌 Action: Consider adding exposure to $CYBR ( ▼ 0.03% ) or $CHKP ( ▲ 3.14% ) — cybersecurity firms that benefit directly from individuals and businesses scrambling to protect financial data.

3. Stack the Crypto Privacy Narrative 
The article specifically flags Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple as targets. That spotlight will drive fresh demand for privacy-first crypto assets as investors look for ways off the grid.

📌 Action: Research an allocation into Monero (XMR) or Zcash (ZEC) — the two leading privacy coins that exist specifically because of surveillance concerns like this one.

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Shoot to Kill: Navy's New Rule 🔫

The president isn't mincing words.

Donald Trump posted Wednesday that he's ordered the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill" any vessel caught placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. No warning shots. No hesitation.

He also claimed Iran's 159 naval ships are already "at the bottom of the sea". And tripled down on minesweeping operations in the strait.

Why this matters for markets:

Oil is screaming. Crude futures are sitting at $93 a barrel, Brent is at $102, and tanker traffic through a waterway that normally moves 20% of the world's oil is still way below normal.

The strait isn't just a shipping lane. It's basically the world's most important oil tap. Right now, someone keeps trying to mine the pipes.

What's actually happening on the ground:

• The U.S. has a retaliatory naval blockade on Iranian ports — 31 ships turned back so far

• Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire with Iran, claiming the U.S. has "total control" over the strait

• JD Vance cancelled a diplomatic trip to Pakistan as peace talks hit a wall

• Negotiations could reportedly resume as early as Friday

Trump's exact words on control of the strait: "No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is 'Sealed up Tight.'"

Subtle.

What to watch:

If talks resume Friday and a deal looks credible, that $102 Brent number starts to look shaky fast. If they collapse, energy stocks and tanker operators keep printing.

The market is essentially betting on whether Trump's Truth Social posts are negotiating theatre or operational orders. Given recent history… probably both.

TL;DR

• Trump ordered the Navy to shoot any boat caught laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz

• Minesweeping operations have been tripled up

• The U.S. has a naval blockade on Iranian ports — 31 ships turned back so far

• Crude is at $93, Brent at $102, with global oil tanker traffic still badly disrupted

• Trump claims "total control" of the strait; Iran peace talks are stalled but could resume Friday

• Watch Friday's diplomatic developments — a deal deflates oil, a breakdown keeps energy bulls happy

1. Ride the Oil Price Spike 
Brent at $102 and the strait still "sealed tight" means crude isn't cooling down anytime soon. Every escalation pumps the price higher.

📌 Action: Add exposure to oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 2.63% ) while tensions hold. Take profit if Friday's talks produce a credible deal.

2. Buy the Defense Contractors Building the Drones 
The Navy just tripled minesweeping operations using unmanned systems built by RTX and General Dynamics. This is a live, active government contract playing out in real time.

📌 Action: Consider long positions in $RTX ( ▼ 2.56% ) and $GD ( ▼ 1.8% ) . Both are direct beneficiaries of an operation that could run for weeks or months.

3. Back the Tanker Operators 
130 large vessels used to cross the strait daily. Right now, almost none are. When the strait reopens — and eventually it will — there's a backlog of 1,000+ ships waiting to move. Tanker rates will surge.

📌 Action: Watch tanker stocks like $STNG ( ▼ 0.73% ) or $FRO ( ▼ 1.11% ) for a re-opening trade. The pent-up demand is enormous.

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Why Tesla's Best News Is Bad 😨

$TSLA ( ▼ 4.75% ) slipped lower Thursday as Wall Street digested Q1 earnings and a freshly raised capex target of $25 billion.

The results themselves weren't the problem. It's what comes next.

The Bulls

Roth Capital's Craig Irwin called it a healthy quarter. Solid demand fundamentals, decent margin management, a few one-time tailwinds.

His bigger point? The SpaceX IPO is about to eat the TSLA narrative alive. How many Cybertrucks does SpaceX order? Does a Tesla-SpaceX merger happen? That's the debate investors will actually be having. Roth stays Buy, $505 PT.

Wedbush's Dan Ives kept his $600 target and Outperform rating. His thesis in one line: "Tesla is morphing into a physical AI stalwart."

More capex? He's fine with it. The path requires spending.

The Fence-Sitters

Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco believes in the long-term autonomy story. But he's cooling on the near-term.

Robotaxi and Optimus are moving slower than expected. Equal-weight, $415.

The Bears

Hargreaves Lansdown's Matt Britzman flagged the obvious: a massive capex step-up means free cash flow effectively disappears for a year or two.

The whole valuation still rests on Musk delivering category-creating products. And the conference call? Just more goalposts shifting further out.

Wells Fargo's Colin Langan was the most direct.

Capex up to $25B. Opex up $1B year-over-year. Optimus and Semi ramps: slow. AI5 chip monetization: not near-term. Hardware 3 vehicles needing FSD retrofits via micro-factories.

That's a lot of spend with limited near-term payoff. Underweight, $125 PT.

Beating on EPS while missing deliveries shows internal improvement. That's real. But committing $25B in capex with no clear ROI timeline? That's a different story.

"Unlike the big hyperscalers, Tesla doesn't have the free cash flow to cover these kinds of expenses. The payoff will need to come quick, or the stock will continue to suffer."

TL;DR

• Q1 beat on EPS, missed on deliveries and sales — net verdict: meh

• Tesla raised capex to $25B, sending free cash flow negative through year-end

• Bulls (Roth, Wedbush) say physical AI transformation justifies the spend

• Neutral camp (Morgan Stanley) believes in the vision but sees limited near-term upside

• Bears (Wells Fargo, Hargreaves) warn of slow robotaxi/Optimus ramps and no clear ROI timeline

• SpaceX IPO chatter could dominate the TSLA narrative more than earnings in the weeks ahead

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SpaceX Isn't A Rocket Co. ❌ 🚀 

SpaceX's pitch to investors isn't really about space anymore.

In IPO documents reviewed by Reuters, SpaceX laid out a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. Over 90% of that? AI. And $22.7 trillion of it is tied specifically to enterprise customers.

Rockets are just the warm-up act.

The IPO itself is a monster.

A reported summer listing could value SpaceX at $1.75 trillion and raise roughly $75 billion… potentially the largest stock market debut in history.

No pressure.

Here's the awkward part though.

SpaceX's actual business today is... Starlink. The satellite internet arm pulled in $11.4 billion of the company's $18.7 billion in 2024 revenue. Solid. Real. Profitable.

AI? Not so much. The xAI acquisition is bleeding cash, and the company posted a $4.9 billion operating loss companywide last year.

They're betting big to make the vision real.

Total capex hit $20.7 billion in 2025, with $12.7 billion going straight to AI infrastructure — GPUs, enterprise sales teams, the works. That's more than they spent on space and connectivity combined.

So yes, they're building rockets and selling internet from orbit. But the pitch to IPO investors is basically: trust us, the real money is enterprise AI.

Some analysts are already raising an eyebrow. The valuation may hinge less on what SpaceX is today and more on what Elon says it'll become.

Familiar territory.

TL;DR

• SpaceX's IPO documents frame AI as its biggest future opportunity, with a $28.5T TAM — over 90% AI-linked

• A summer IPO could value the company at $1.75T and raise $75B, potentially a record debut

• Starlink is still the real profit engine: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating profit in 2024

• xAI losses dragged the company to a $4.9B operating loss overall

• SpaceX spent $12.7B on AI capex in 2025 — more than on space and connectivity combined

• Skeptics say the valuation relies more on faith in Musk's AI ambitions than current financials

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Tesla Just Silenced Everyone 🤫 

Tesla dropped its Q1 earnings after the bell Wednesday, and the stock popped in after-hours. Not hard to see why.

Revenue hit $22.9B. Up 15.8% year-over-year. EPS came in at $0.41, crushing the $0.35 consensus and absolutely torching the $0.12 it posted a year ago.

That's not just a beat. They spanked expectations.

The margins are the real story here.

Gross margin came in at 21.1%. That’s up from 16.3% a year ago and well ahead of the 17.7% consensus. Operating income surged 136% year-over-year to $900M.

For a company that's been aggressively cutting prices, rebuilding its lineup, and weathering a PR storm, that margin recovery is genuinely impressive.

Free cash flow: $1.4B. Some analysts were bracing for a negative print. They were wrong.

On deliveries… it's a mixed bag.

Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1, with 341,893 of those being Model 3/Y. The expiry of the government EV tax credit didn't help demand, but production still hit 408,386 units.

The gap between production and deliveries is worth watching.

Cash on the balance sheet: $44.7B. Yeah, they're fine.

What's coming next?

Management flagged that Cybercab, Tesla Semi, and Megapack 3 are all on track for volume production in 2026. Optimus production lines are being installed now.

FSD subscriptions grew 50% year-over-year. It’s a number that quietly matters a lot as Tesla tries to shift its story from "car company" to "AI and robotics platform."

The 21% gross margin improvement suggests the worst may already be in the rearview mirror.

There is a but though. The valuation is still very stretched. So buckle up.

TL;DR

• Tesla beat on revenue ($22.9B, +15.8% YoY), EPS ($0.41 vs $0.35 est), and gross margin (21.1% vs 17.7% est)

• Operating income up 136% YoY; free cash flow of $1.4B surprised to the upside

• Q1 deliveries were 358,023 — tax credit expiry weighed on demand

• Cash position sits at a very comfortable $44.7B

• Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 on track for 2026 volume production; Optimus lines being installed now

• FSD subscriptions +50% YoY — the software story is quietly building momentum

1. Ride the Tesla Recovery 
The margin comeback is real. Gross margin hit 21.1%, free cash flow surprised to the upside, and the bears got burned. The fundamentals are quietly improving.

📌 Action: Consider adding or averaging into $TSLA ( ▼ 4.75% ) on any post-earnings pullback. The trend is turning but size your position carefully given the stretched valuation.

2. Bet on the EV Supply Chain 
Tesla hitting 408,386 units in production means suppliers are busy. Battery makers, charging infrastructure, and semiconductor suppliers all benefit when Tesla's factories are running hot.

📌 Action: Look at EV supply chain ETFs like $LIT ( ▼ 3.3% ) (lithium & battery tech) or $DRIV ( ▼ 3.29% ) (global EV & tech) as indirect plays on Tesla's production ramp.

3. Position for the AI & Robotics Pivot 
FSD subscriptions up 50% YoY. Optimus lines being installed. Cybercab on track for 2026. Tesla is quietly transforming from a car company into an AI and robotics platform.

📌 Action: If you believe the robotics/AI narrative, $TSLA ( ▼ 4.75% ) at current levels gives you exposure to both. Alternatively, diversify the theme with $ROBT ( ▼ 1.38% ) or $ARKQ ( ▼ 4.01% ) for broader robotics upside.

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Who's Begging for Dollars? 💰️ 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Wednesday that "many" Gulf and Asian allies have formally requested currency swap lines from the U.S. — a direct response to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and missile strikes on oil infrastructure.

That's a bigger admission than the White House made Tuesday, which only acknowledged talks with the UAE.

So what's a swap line, and why does it matter?

Think of it as the Fed lending a country dollars so they don't have to panic-sell U.S. assets to stay liquid. Bessent put it plainly: swap lines exist "to maintain order in dollar funding markets and prevent the sale of U.S. assets in a disorderly way."

Translation: Gulf nations are bleeding oil revenue and need dollars fast. The U.S. would rather lend them than watch them dump Treasuries.

Trump backed the idea for the UAE specifically, telling CNBC: "If I could help them, I would." Senator Steve Daines called it the right move.

Not everyone's cheering though.

Democrats are pushing back hard. Senator Chris Van Hollen put a number on the war's price tag — "over a billion dollars a day in taxpayer money" — and flagged higher gas prices hitting Americans at home.

The pitch from Bessent's camp: swap lines protect the dollar system. The counter from the left: we're already paying through the nose for this war.

Both things can be true at once.

TL;DR

• Bessent confirmed multiple Gulf and Asian allies have requested U.S. dollar swap lines

• Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure is strangling oil revenues and creating dollar shortages in the region

• Swap lines let countries borrow dollars to avoid panic-selling U.S. assets — it's about protecting market stability, not charity

• Trump and Senate Republicans are broadly supportive of extending them

• Democrats are pushing back, citing $1B+/day war costs and rising prices for American consumers

• The core tension: global dollar dominance vs. domestic economic pain — and right now both sides have a point

Trump's Quiet Win For Cannabis 🌿 

The White House is reportedly set to reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. And it could happen as early as Wednesday.

That's a big deal. Schedule III means more research access, an easier path for pharma companies to build cannabis-based medicines, and lighter legal penalties for possession.

What it doesn't mean: federal legalisation. Weed would still be illegal to manufacture, distribute, or possess under federal law. Think of it less as opening the door and more as... unlocking it slightly.

Trump flagged this back in December, saying he was "very strongly" looking at an Executive Order to make it happen. Looks like he wasn't bluffing.

Markets are already celebrating.

Multi-state operators (MSOs) are popping on the news:

• Ascend Wellness $AAWH ( ▼ 17.34% )

• Curaleaf Holdings $CURLF ( ▼ 13.35% )

• Cresco Labs $CRLBF ( ▼ 9.89% )

• Green Thumb Industries $GTBIF ( ▼ 5.15% )

• Trulieve Cannabis $TCNNF ( ▼ 9.14% )

• Ayr Wellness $AYRWF ( ▼ 10.67% )

• Verano Holdings $VRNO ( ▼ 8.62% )

• Jushi Holdings $JUSHF ( ▼ 8.25% )

Want broader exposure? Cannabis ETFs to watch: $YOLO ( ▼ 5.77% )  $MJUS ( ▼ 2.39% ) and $CNBS ( ▼ 8.3% ) .

TL;DR

• Trump is set to reschedule marijuana to Schedule III under the CSA, possibly by Wednesday

• It opens the door for more research and pharma-led cannabis medicines

• Legal penalties for possession would be reduced — but not eliminated

• This is not federal legalisation — weed stays illegal under federal law

• MSO stocks are surging on the back of the news

• Cannabis ETFs (YOLO, MJUS, CNBS) offer broader market exposure to the move

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Hormuz Is On A Timer ⏱️ 

The U.S.-Iran truce was about to expire Wednesday. Then Trump posted.

In a social media update, Trump said the ceasefire would be extended until Iran's leadership produces a "unified proposal". Noting that Tehran's government is currently too fractured to negotiate coherently.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir reportedly requested the extension. Trump obliged, directing the military to maintain the blockade while staying "ready and able."

In a sentence? The ceasefire lives, but it's on life support.

The talks that never happened

JD Vance was supposed to fly to Pakistan to lead U.S. negotiations. He cancelled.

Iran's foreign ministry said Tehran hadn't committed to attending anyway. The reason? “Unacceptable actions" by Washington, almost certainly a reference to the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were recalled to Washington for consultations. Which either means a deal is close… or nobody knows what happens next.

What could go wrong?

A U.S. official confirmed Trump has "options short of restarting airstrikes" if talks collapse. Nobody elaborated on what those options are.

Which is either reassuring or terrifying depending on your risk tolerance.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade. The blockade is already rattling energy markets. A negotiation breakdown wouldn't just be a geopolitical problem. It would land directly in your portfolio.

TL;DR

• Trump extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire after the two-week truce was set to expire Wednesday

• He cited Iran's fractured leadership as the reason a deal hasn't materialised yet

• Pakistan brokered the extension — Sharif and Munir personally requested more time

• JD Vance cancelled his Pakistan trip; Iran said it hadn't committed to further talks

• The U.S. is maintaining its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the extended truce

• A U.S. official confirmed Trump has escalation options beyond airstrikes if talks fail — details undisclosed

1. Trade the Oil Volatility 
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is squeezing ~20% of global oil supply. Every headline shift — deal, no deal, extension — moves crude prices hard and fast.

📌 Action: Swing trade oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 2.63% ) around ceasefire news cycles. Buy on escalation headlines, trim on de-escalation relief rallies.

2. Rotate Into Energy Majors 
A prolonged blockade keeps oil prices elevated. The big integrated producers are printing cash when crude stays high — and they pay you a dividend while you wait.

📌 Action: Add exposure to $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) , $CVX ( ▲ 2.39% ) , or the energy sector ETF $XLE ( ▲ 2.36% ) as a medium-term hold while the situation stays unresolved.

3. Hedge With Gold 
Geopolitical deadlock + fractured diplomacy + military blockade = textbook flight-to-safety setup. Gold performs when nobody trusts the outcome.

📌 Action: Add a small allocation to $GLD ( ▼ 2.32% ) or $SGOL ( ▼ 2.3% ) as portfolio insurance. If talks collapse, gold spikes. If a deal lands, you lose a little on the hedge — small price for the protection.

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No Bell. No Crash. Now What? 😕 

The man who shorted the 2008 housing market just told you to stop expecting a dramatic cliff-edge collapse.

In a Substack thread with subscribers, Burry said a "needle top" — where stocks spike hard then immediately crater — is basically a financial unicorn.

"Right, a needle top is like a unicorn, mythical until proven," he wrote.

So what does he actually expect?

Choppiness. Volatility. New highs followed by big drops. The kind of market that makes you feel like you're winning and losing in the same week.

Burry's view: what's happening now might eventually look like a top in hindsight… but we won't know that until we're already through it.

He backed this up by sharing screenshots from a BTIG report called "Rarefied Air," in which chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky called conditions "a bit overheated" and said "a pause is in order."

So what does it all mean? Don't expect a sudden dramatic implosion. Expect a slow, grinding, frustrating peak that nobody rings a bell for.

Michael Burry’s X Account

He'd also posted on X late Friday: "Markets have never seen a needle top" — referencing his own March post where he reminded everyone: "Shorts are not forever."

Make of that what you will.

TL;DR

• Burry says a sudden market crash ("needle top") is historically unprecedented

• He expects volatile, choppy trading with new highs and big drops

• The current rally could look like a market top in hindsight — but not with clean timing

• BTIG's technicians backed the cautious tone, calling markets "overheated"

• Burry isn't calling for a collapse — he's calling for a messy, drawn-out peak

• His Friday X post reminded bears: short positions don't last forever

Trump's $160B Loyalty Test 💔 

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal.

That opened a $160B refund portal through U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

And now Trump is watching who cashes the cheque.

"I'll remember" the companies that don't file for refunds, he told CNBC. Apple and Amazon haven't filed yet. Trump called that "brilliant" and said he was "very honored."

Read that again. The President is publicly praising corporations for voluntarily forfeiting money they're legally owed.

It's a loyalty tax. Except instead of paying extra, you just quietly donate your refund to the vibe.

Trump also took shots at the Supreme Court for not including language that would let him keep the tariff revenue without consequence. "I'm not happy with the Supreme Court, I'll be honest with you," he said.

The court said the tariffs were illegal. Trump's response was essentially: cool, but can we at least keep the money?

Not everyone's playing along.

Retailers who got absolutely hammered by the trade war aren't in a position to perform loyalty gestures:

• Levi Strauss expects ~$80M in refunds

• Gap says it's "definitely working on gaining clarity" on refunds, noting the tariff impact has been "significant to our performance"

What they’re really saying? We'd love to make Trump happy, but we have shareholders.

TL;DR

• Supreme Court ruled Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal in a 6-3 decision

• A $160B refund portal is now open for importers

• Trump is publicly praising companies like Apple and Amazon for not filing refund requests

• He says he'll "remember" who does and doesn't claim their money

• Trump also blasted the Supreme Court for not letting him keep the tariff revenue

• Retailers like Levi's and Gap are pursuing refunds regardless — their margins can't afford the flattery

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Costco Got Paid. Did You? 🤔

The U.S. government is now accepting claims from importers wanting their tariff money back, after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's IEEPA tariffs were never legally valid in the first place.

We're talking $166–$175 billion in potential refunds. One of the biggest trade repayments in American history.

Here's how it works.

A new federal portal called CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) is now live. Around 330,000 importers covering 53 million shipments from early 2025 through February 2026 are eligible to file claims through U.S. Customs and Border Protection's ACE portal.

Phase 1 tackles the simple stuff first. Recent imports, clean paperwork, straightforward cases. The messier claims come later.

CBP says refunds will hit via electronic transfer within 60–90 days of claim approval. Trade lawyers are already cautioning that delays are "possible." So temper expectations accordingly.

But the tariff story isn't over.

The White House is already working the angles. It's pushing to reinstate tariffs under different legal authority, specifically Section 122, Section 301, and Section 232 of existing trade law. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated a July timeline for tariffs potentially returning to pre-ruling levels.

In other words: companies may get a refund with one hand and a new tariff bill with the other.

What about consumers?

Here's where it gets spicy. Many businesses passed tariff costs directly onto customers. Those customers get nothing back automatically, and there's no portal for them.

Cue the lawyers.

Class action suits have been filed against Costco $COST ( ▲ 0.74% ) and FedEx $FDX ( ▼ 1.11% ) , arguing that any government refund should flow through to the end consumer who actually footed the bill.

The two companies are handling this very differently:

• FedEx $FDX ( ▼ 1.11% ): Says it will pass refunds back to customers directly.

• Costco $COST ( ▲ 0.74% ): Plans to return value through lower prices and better deals for members over time.

One's writing cheques. The other's promising vibes.

What it means for your portfolio.

This refund cycle could quietly boost liquidity for retailers, manufacturers, logistics firms and small importers who absorbed tariff costs without passing them on. Watch for balance sheet improvements and margin recovery in upcoming earnings.

The wildcard: if new tariffs drop by July, that liquidity boost gets cancelled almost immediately.

TL;DR

• The U.S. is now accepting claims for $166–$175B in IEEPA tariff refunds through a new portal called CAPE

• Around 330,000 importers are eligible; refunds expected within 60–90 days of approval

• The White House is exploring alternate legal routes to reinstate tariffs by July under different trade statutes

• Consumers who paid inflated prices have no direct refund route, but class actions are already targeting COST and FDX

• FedEx will return refunds to customers directly; Costco will pass value back through pricing over time

• Short-term liquidity boost for importers is real, but may be temporary if new tariffs arrive before summer

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The AAPL Trade You're Missing 📈 

Analyst Erik Woodring is calling it a "clearing event."

Expectations are so low right now, Apple almost can't disappoint.

Here's the bull case in plain English:

• Gross margins might take a hit from rising memory costs — but stronger iPhone, Mac, and Services revenue should more than cover it

• June quarter EPS guidance is expected to land around $1.74, roughly in line with Wall Street — which, given the current mood, counts as a win

• Woodring has an Overweight rating and a $315 price target on the stock

AAPL moving up from recent lows and a $315 price target is nearly 16% gain from current price

Why the next few months actually matter

This isn't just about one earnings print. Apple is heading into what Woodring calls a "seasonally strong period of outperformance."

Revenue growth could hit ~15%, driven by market share gains across multiple regions. A new iPhone is coming in September. Rumours of a foldable iPhone are already doing the rounds — and that kind of product excitement hasn't been on the table for a while.

Oh, and while every other mega-cap is burning cash on AI infrastructure? Apple's free cash flow is a flex.

The $300 question:

At 28x next year's GAAP EPS, Apple isn't cheap… but it's not exactly nose-bleed territory either. Woodring's FY27 EPS estimate sits 5% above consensus, and he sees a clear path to $300 by September on the back of modest multiple expansion and upward earnings revisions.

The setup: low expectations + strong seasonality + new product cycle. That's not a bad hand.

TL;DR

• Apple reports Q2 earnings on April 30 — Morgan Stanley expects a "better than feared" outcome

• June quarter EPS guide seen landing at ~$1.74, roughly in line with estimates

• Revenue growth could hit ~15% driven by iPhone, Mac, and Services strength

• Foldable iPhone rumours + WWDC + September launch = a stacked product calendar

• Apple's free cash flow is a competitive advantage while rivals splurge on AI

• Morgan Stanley sees a path to $300 per share by September, with a $315 price target

Iran Said No. He Went Anyway. ✈️ 

The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are either happening, almost happening, or completely falling apart. Depends who you ask.

Here's the latest chaos, ranked by confusion:

VP JD Vance and a U.S. delegation are reportedly heading to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Wednesday for another round of talks with Iran. CNN says he hasn't left yet. The New York Post says he's basically already there. Nobody really knows.

Meanwhile, Trump told Fox Business on Sunday that a deal with Iran would be signed tonight. That was Sunday. We're still waiting.

He also claimed the U.S. has closed the Strait of Hormuz as part of an ongoing naval blockade. That's the waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. No big deal or anything.

Iran's response? They announced they won't be showing up to a second round of talks, calling U.S. demands "excessive and unrealistic." Trump's team said they're heading to Pakistan anyway. Classic.

When asked what happens if a deal falls through, Trump told the Post: "It wouldn't be pretty."

So that's reassuring.

Why investors should care:

The Strait of Hormuz is the jugular vein of global oil supply. Any prolonged standoff here means energy markets stay jittery, oil prices stay elevated, and your energy stocks have a very interesting week ahead.

TL;DR

• Vance is reportedly flying to Pakistan Wednesday for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, though CNN says he hasn't departed yet

• Trump claimed a deal would be signed "tonight" on Sunday. Still no deal

• The U.S. says it's closed the Strait of Hormuz as part of a naval blockade

• Iran publicly pulled out of talks, citing "unrealistic" U.S. demands

• Trump hinted at escalation if negotiations collapse, without specifying what that looks like

• The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20% of global oil, so watch energy markets closely

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Trump's $500M Iran Bombshell 😬

The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated hard this weekend. And markets are paying attention.

Trump took to Truth Social Sunday with the energy of someone who just found out their neighbour keyed their car.

Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz — including a French vessel and a British freighter. Trump called it a "Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement" and immediately threatened to "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran."

"NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" he posted. (Yes, in all caps.)

The Blockade Math

Trump's logic: Iran announced it was closing the Strait. But the U.S. blockade already shut it down first.

Iran's self-own, per Trump: they're losing $500 million per day. The U.S.? Loses nothing.

Closing a road you don't control is a bold strategy.

Iran Pulls the Plug on Talks

Tehran told state media it won't be showing up to a second round of negotiations.

The reason? Washington keeps "moving the goalposts" — changing positions, making contradictory statements, and pushing what Iranian officials are calling "maximalist" demands on uranium enrichment.

Translation: Iran walked out of the negotiating table before anyone brought the coffee.

Trump, undeterred, said U.S. negotiators are still heading to Pakistan for talks anyway.

The USS Reality Check

It got more dramatic from there.

A U.S. guided missile destroyer intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo ship called the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman.

The crew ignored repeated orders to stop. So the U.S. Navy blew a hole in the engine room.

Trump confirmed U.S. Marines now have custody of the vessel, which he says is under Treasury sanctions for a "record of illegal activity."

Iran hasn't responded. Independent confirmation is pending.

Why Investors Should Care

The Strait of Hormuz handles a massive chunk of global oil shipments. The Gulf of Oman sits right next to it.

This isn't just sabre-rattling anymore. The U.S. is now doing direct maritime enforcement in one of the world's most critical energy corridors.

Ships are already rerouting to U.S. ports in Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska. Oil prices, inflation expectations, and equities are all on a hair trigger right now.

One wrong move in the Gulf and you'll feel it at the pump — and in your portfolio.

TL;DR

• Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump called it a ceasefire violation and threatened to destroy Iran's power grid and bridges

• Iran says it's boycotting further U.S. negotiations, citing shifting demands and "maximalist" positions from Washington

• The U.S. Navy intercepted and boarded an Iranian cargo ship (the TOUSKA) after the crew refused to stop — Marines now have custody

• Trump claims the U.S. blockade is already costing Iran $500M/day with zero cost to the U.S.

• Ships are rerouting away from the region; global shipping and energy markets are watching closely

• Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman = oil price spike risk, inflation pressure, and equity volatility

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The Mine That Scares Beijing 😨 

America doesn't want to keep asking China nicely for the minerals powering its missiles, EVs, and wind turbines.

So it's backing a massive rare earth project in South Africa instead.

The Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project has secured a $50 million equity commitment from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

The twist? They're not digging new mines. They're mining the waste left behind by decades of phosphate processing. Giant dunes of pre-processed material sitting there, basically waiting to be useful.

Developer Rainbow Rare Earths plans to start production in 2028, with the processing facility built out by 2027. The site is expected to run for 16 years.

CEO George Bennett says a big chunk of output is heading straight to the U.S., partly for military use. The minerals on the list include:

• Neodymium & praseodymium — the workhorses behind high-performance magnets

• Dysprosium & terbium — critical for weapons systems and robotics

Think of them as the ingredients your phone, EV, and next-generation fighter jet all quietly need.

Using waste material could mean lower costs than traditional rare earth mining. Throw in a heavy reliance on renewables and you've got a pitch that ticks every ESG and national security box simultaneously.

Analysts say this could help the West chip away at China's stranglehold on rare earth supply chains. Though "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there — commercial certainty is still a way off.

What's telling is the politics. The U.S. and South Africa aren't exactly best friends right now. Washington is pressing ahead anyway, because the race to lock up Africa's strategic resources isn't slowing down for anyone's diplomatic awkwardness.

Beijing's been playing this game for decades. The U.S. is finally showing up with a cheque.

TL;DR

• The U.S. is backing a $50M rare earth project in South Africa through the DFC

• Developer Rainbow Rare Earths will extract minerals from old phosphate mining waste, not new ground

• Production targeted for 2028; the site projected to run for 16 years

• Key minerals include neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium — critical for EVs, wind turbines, and weapons

• Using pre-processed waste could cut costs vs. conventional mining

• The investment signals the U.S. is serious about breaking China's rare earth dominance, political tensions or not

$300M Gone By Sunday Morning 🥷 

A hacker just pulled off the biggest DeFi heist of 2026, draining nearly $300 million from a cross-chain crypto bridge on Saturday.

The target? About 116,500 rsETH — a token from Kelp DAO that represents restaked Ether — stolen by exploiting a bridge built on LayerZero technology.

Kelp DAO confirmed the attack on X, pausing rsETH contracts across mainnet and several L2s while they investigate.

Here's why this one stings more than most.

rsETH isn't some niche obscure token sitting in a corner. It's deeply embedded across lending, trading, and liquidity platforms. So when it got hit, the damage didn't stay put.

Think of it like one Jenga block holding up the whole tower.

Security firm Cyvers estimated at least nine protocols were affected, calling it a "cross-protocol contagion event." Their words, not ours. And honestly? Pretty accurate.

Aave, the biggest DeFi lending platform on the planet, froze its rsETH markets to stop the bleeding.

Oh, and it nearly got worse. Cyvers CTO Meir Dolev said the protocol was "just three minutes away" from losing an additional $100 million before a blacklist blocked a second attempt.

Three. Minutes.

This exploit now tops the earlier attack on Solana-based Drift, and lands at arguably the worst possible moment for crypto's credibility.

The uncomfortable truth is that DeFi's greatest strength, composability, is also its biggest vulnerability. When everything talks to everything, one breach becomes everyone's problem.

TL;DR

• Hackers stole ~$300M in rsETH via a LayerZero-based bridge on Saturday

• Kelp DAO paused contracts across mainnet and multiple L2s while investigating

• At least 9 DeFi protocols were hit in a cascading contagion event

• Aave froze rsETH markets to limit further damage

• A second attack was stopped with just 3 minutes to spare, potentially saving $100M more

• The exploit is the largest DeFi hack of 2026 and exposes the systemic risk of interconnected protocols

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Who Controls Your Oil Price? 🛢️ 

The Strait of Hormuz is having a very bad weekend.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats opened fire on a tanker transiting the strait on Saturday. The British military confirmed it. The crew is reportedly safe. The vessel? Unnamed.

One-fifth of the world's oil flows through this stretch of water.

So yeah, markets should probably pay attention.

Here's the mess in order:

• Iran reimposed restrictions on strait passage Saturday, requiring naval authorisation and toll payment from any ship wanting through

• The move came just one day after Iran's Foreign Minister declared the strait open, following a 10-day Israel-Hezbollah truce

• Iran's military said control has "returned to its previous state" — translation: nothing moves without their say-so

• TankerTrackers.com confirmed vessels were forced to turn around, including an Indian-flagged supertanker

• Data firm Kpler says traffic through the strait is now locked to Iran-approved corridors only

And then Trump complicated things further (as is tradition).

He initially seemed open to reopening the strait. Then walked it back. The U.S. blockade "will remain in full force," he said, until Iran agrees to a deal covering its nuclear programme.

So Iran is blocking ships from one end. The U.S. is blocking Iranian ports from the other. Both sides are using the strait as a chess piece.

The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between Israel, the U.S. and Iran is technically still alive. But so is the standoff that could blow it up.

Iran's parliament security chief described the situation as returning to the "status quo". To be clear, means ships need Iranian permission and need to pay a toll. That's not open. That's a tollbooth with guns.

U.S. Central Command says it's already sent 21 ships back to Iran since the blockade began Monday.

The short version: Two nuclear-armed(ish) standoff participants are playing chicken with the global oil supply, and the exit ramp is a Pakistan-mediated peace deal that isn't signed yet.

TL;DR

• Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz Saturday — crew safe, situation very much not chill

• Iran reimposed transit restrictions, requiring military authorisation and toll payments for all ships

• ~20% of global oil supply passes through the strait — energy markets are watching this closely

• Trump confirmed the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports stays in place until a nuclear deal is reached

• Both sides are using the strait as leverage — Iran blocks incoming ships, the U.S. turns back Iranian ones

• A ceasefire is technically in place, but this back-and-forth is exactly the kind of thing that ends ceasefires

1. Ride the Oil Spike 
Iran just turned the world's busiest oil corridor into a checkpoint. Every headline out of the Strait sends crude jerking up or down. That volatility is tradeable.

📌 Action: Buy into oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 2.63% ) on de-escalation dips. Sell into the fear spikes when tensions flare again.

2. Stack Defence 
The U.S. has deployed warships, initiated a naval blockade and is deep in a three-way standoff. Defence budgets don't shrink during moments like this.

📌 Action: Add exposure to $LMT ( ▼ 0.85% ) (Lockheed Martin) or $RTX ( ▼ 2.56% ) (Raytheon). Both directly tied to U.S. military escalation cycles.

3. Bet on the Detour 
If the Strait stays blocked, global shipping reroutes the long way around Africa. That's more miles, more fuel, more demand for alternative energy infrastructure.

📌 Action: Look at LNG shipping plays like $FLNG ( ▲ 0.88% ) or broader energy infrastructure via $MLPX ( ▲ 0.87% ) as supply chains scramble to adapt.

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The Egg Cartel Is Real 🥚 

The Feds think your $9 eggs weren’t an accident.

The Department of Justice is reportedly gearing up to sue some of America's biggest egg producers. And the allegation is exactly what it sounds like.

Price fixing.

According to the Wall Street Journal, rival egg producers coordinated by sharing pricing data through Expana, a third-party service that sets industry benchmark prices using sales data.

Think of Expana as the group chat where competitors "just happened" to share what they were charging.

The companies in the crosshairs? Cal-Maine Foods $CALM ( ▼ 1.45% ) and Versova are among those implicated. Both significantly hiked prices in 2024 and 2025, blaming a bird flu-driven supply crunch.

Markets didn't love the news. CALM $CALM ( ▼ 1.45% )  and Vital Farms $VITL ( ▼ 0.35% ) both dropped in post-market trading after the WSJ story dropped Friday.

To be fair, the DOJ hasn't pulled the trigger yet. A settlement is still on the table, which would let producers dodge the lawsuit entirely.

The American Egg Board — yes, that's a real lobbying group — fired back with this gem: "Egg farmers are price takers. They don't set prices; the market does."

Sure. The market. Not the shared pricing spreadsheet.

TL;DR

• The DOJ is preparing an antitrust lawsuit against major U.S. egg producers for alleged price coordination

• Producers allegedly shared pricing data through Expana, an industry benchmark service

• Cal-Maine (CALM) and Versova are named as key targets; both hiked prices sharply in 2024-25

• CALM and VITL shares fell in post-market trading after the report broke

• The DOJ hasn't made a final call yet — a settlement is still possible

• The egg industry's lobby group says producers are just "price takers." The DOJ disagrees.

Trump's Wildest Drug Order Yet 🤯 

The White House went full tie-dye on Saturday.

Trump signed an executive order to fast-track research and patient access to psychedelic treatments, including psilocybin, ibogaine, LSD, and MDMA.

His words, not ours: "Life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans."

RFK Jr. was in the room. Of course he was.

HHS is now tasked with accelerating research, approval, and access to psychedelic therapies. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary went further, announcing three national priority vouchers for psychedelics. It’s a programme designed to turbocharge the review process for drugs aligned with national priorities.

And he didn't bury the lede:

"Drugs can get approved in weeks — not a year or a year plus, but in weeks."

Weeks. For drug approvals. That's not a typo.

Markets didn't wait for the ink to dry. Psychedelic stocks were already ripping on Thursday after CBS News leaked the plan. By the time the pen hit paper, the sector had a head start.

Stocks to watch:

• $ATAI ( ▼ 0.62% ) (Atai Life Sciences)

• $CMPS ( ▼ 2.35% ) (COMPASS Pathways)

• $GHRS ( ▼ 3.69% ) (GH Research)

• $DFTX ( ▼ 1.69% ) (Definium Therapeutics)

• $HELP ( ▼ 7.71% ) (Cybin)

This is still early-stage, high-risk territory. But when the White House puts rocket fuel under an approval process, the market listens.

TL;DR

• Trump signed an EO to fast-track psychedelic drug research and patient access

• Covered substances include psilocybin, ibogaine, LSD, and MDMA

• FDA will issue three national priority vouchers specifically for psychedelic therapies

• Commissioner Makary claims approvals could happen in weeks under the new framework

• Psychedelic stocks were already rallying before the order was even signed

• Key tickers to watch: ATAI, CMPS, GHRS, DFTX, HELP

1. Ride the Psychedelic Sector Surge 
Trump's EO just put rocket fuel under an entire niche sector. FDA approvals in weeks means the runway for these stocks just got a lot shorter.

📌 Action: Buy into diversified psychedelic exposure via $ATAI ( ▼ 0.62% ) or $CMPS ( ▼ 2.35% ) . Watch for approval news as the next catalyst.

2. Target the FDA Fast-Track Winners 
Three national priority vouchers are being handed out. Whoever gets them sees their approval timeline collapse. That's a stock-moving event.

📌 Action: Watch $GHRS ( ▼ 3.69% ) and $HELP ( ▼ 7.71% ) closely. Either could be a voucher recipient. A small speculative position now could pay off on the announcement.

3. Play the Veteran Mental Health Tailwind 
Trump specifically name-dropped veterans. That's a political signal that federal funding and support for psychedelic therapy is coming.

📌 Action: $DFTX ( ▼ 1.69% ) is early stage but aligned with this narrative. Small position, high risk, high upside if federal contracts follow the rhetoric.

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Who's Lying About Hormuz? 🤥 

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to X Friday to declare the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for all commercial vessels… for the duration of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Big if true.

The announcement follows a 10-day ceasefire deal brokered in Washington, and hints at a broader thaw between the U.S. and Iran. Tehran had previously framed the Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a breach of its own pause with America.

Markets bought it immediately. Stock futures jumped. Oil prices tanked.

There's just one problem: the ships aren't moving.

Commodities data firm Kpler looked at the strait after Iran's announcement and said it "remains effectively closed."

Most shipping organisations still classify it as too dangerous. The reason? Mines. Not the metaphorical kind.

Iran's military also said it would block any vessel it hasn't personally greenlit. That doesn't exactly scream "open for business."

And even if Tehran follows through on a genuine reopening, Kpler estimates only ~25% of Middle East Gulf export capacity would come back online within one to two months.

So we've got an announcement of an open strait, a closed strait, and oil prices already pricing in the hopeful version. Classic markets.

TL;DR

• Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for commercial ships during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire window

• The move follows a 10-day ceasefire deal struck in Washington — and signals a possible broader U.S.-Iran détente

• Stock futures rallied and oil prices dropped on the news

• Commodities agency Kpler says the strait is still effectively closed due to mines and ongoing security risks

• Iran's military said it'll block any unauthorised vessel — undermining the "open" claim

• Even in a best-case scenario, only ~25% of Gulf export capacity would resume within 1–2 months

1. Buy the Oil Dip 
Markets already priced in a full Hormuz reopening. Kpler says that's not happening anytime soon. When reality catches up, oil bounces back.

📌 Action: Pick up shares in oil majors like $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) or $CVX ( ▲ 2.39% ) on any further dips driven by ceasefire optimism. Hold for the snapback when shipping delays hit supply data.

2. Ride the Defence Spend Wave 
A Middle East ceasefire that nobody fully trusts means governments aren't standing down. Defence budgets stay elevated. Contracts keep flowing.

📌 Action: Add to or initiate a position in $LMT ( ▼ 0.85% ) , $RTX ( ▼ 2.56% ) , or the defence ETF $ITA ( ▼ 3.2% ) . Geopolitical instability is a long-term tailwind here.

3. Bet on the Shipping Backlog 
25% capacity resuming in 1–2 months means rerouting chaos continues. Longer routes = higher freight rates = more revenue for tanker operators.

📌 Action: Look at tanker stocks like $INSW ( ▼ 1.09% ) or $TK ( ▲ 0.23% ) which benefit directly from elevated shipping rates during supply disruptions.

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Someone's Hunting PayPal 🏹 

PayPal's stock popped 2.5% on Friday. Activist investor speculation might be the reason why.

Analyst Don Bilson at Gordon Hackett flagged that SG Americas, Societe Generale's broker-dealer, looks like it could be quietly setting itself up as a go-to swap broker for activist investors — based on a fresh look at SG's 13F filing.

So who's in the crosshairs?

PayPal $PYPL ( ▼ 1.4% ) is top of the list. The payments giant swapped out its CEO in February after a rough earnings print, and there were already whispers that potential acquirers had been sniffing around. In other words: the board is under pressure, the stock has underperformed, and activists smell blood.

Other names flagged from the filing:

• VICI Properties $VICI ( ▲ 0.07% ) — up 0.8%

• Host Hotels $HST ( ▼ 0.74% ) — up 2.3%

• GitLab $GTLB ( ▲ 4.69% ) — flat

Nothing confirmed yet. But when SG starts building swap positions in beaten-down names right after a leadership shakeup, people pay attention.

TL;DR

• PayPal jumped 2.5% on speculation it could attract an activist investor

• SG Americas' 13F filing suggests it may be acting as a swap broker for activist players

• PayPal replaced its CEO in February after weak earnings and soft guidance

• Potential acquirers had already shown interest in PayPal earlier this year

• VICI Properties and Host Hotels also rose on similar speculation; GitLab was flat

• Nothing is confirmed — but the market is clearly pricing in some activist heat

No Nukes. No Funds. No Way? 🤔 

A massive geopolitical shift may be underway.

Trump told Bloomberg Friday that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and won't be getting any of its frozen U.S. funds back as part of a potential peace deal.

His words, not ours: "No years, unlimited."

Trump says the deal is mostly cooked. Talks to finalise everything will "probably" happen this weekend, with the president adding: "Most of the main points are finalised. It'll go pretty quickly."

Iran hasn't officially confirmed the nuclear concession yet. But they did confirm one thing that matters to oil markets: the Strait of Hormuz is now "completely open" for all commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire.

That's roughly 20% of the world's oil supply allegedly flowing freely again. Worth noting.

On the delegation front, Trump is weighing up sending JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff to the next round of talks, expected in Islamabad on Sunday. Pakistan is mediating. Egypt and Turkey are backing it up.

Earlier Friday, reports surfaced that the working framework involved $20B in frozen Iranian funds being released in exchange for Iran handing over its enriched uranium stockpile. Trump has since walked that back, saying Iran gets no frozen funds at all.

So either the deal got better for the U.S. overnight, or the details are still very much in flux.

Either way, the weekend's going to be interesting.

TL;DR

• Trump says Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely, with "no years, unlimited" as the timeline

• A peace deal is described as mostly finalised, with a second round of talks expected Sunday in Islamabad

• Iran has confirmed the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial shipping for the ceasefire period

• Earlier reports suggested $20B in frozen funds would be released to Iran — Trump has now denied this

• The U.S. delegation could include Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff; Pakistan is mediating with Egypt and Turkey in support

• Key details remain unconfirmed from the Iranian side — watch this space over the weekend

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Netflix's Dirty Little Secret 🤫

Netflix dropped after-hours Thursday, currently down 8.6% despite posting a Q1 that, on paper, looked pretty solid.

The numbers were good. The guidance? Less so.

Q1: The Headline Numbers

Netflix pulled in $12.25B in revenue, up 16% year-over-year and ahead of Wall Street's $12.17B estimate.

Operating income hit $4.08B, an 18% jump, though the margin came in at 31.7% vs. the 32.5% analysts were pencilling in.

EPS landed at $1.23, but there's a catch. That figure includes a $2.8B breakup fee from the Warner Bros. deal, which got tucked into "interest and other income." Strip that out, and the beat looks a lot thinner.

Free cash flow more than doubled to $5.1B, up from $2.7B a year ago. Hard to complain about that one.

The Guidance Problem

Here's where the market started raising an eyebrow.

Netflix left its full-year revenue guidance unchanged at $50.7B–$51.7B. The midpoint of $51.2B sits below the $51.38B consensus. With the Warner Bros. saga firmly in the rearview, investors were expecting a raise. They didn't get one.

Operating margin target stays at 31.5%, while the Street wanted 32%.

For Q2 specifically:

• Revenue guidance of $12.57B vs. $12.63B expected

• EPS guidance of $0.78 vs. $0.84 expected

• Operating margin of 32.6%, down 150 basis points from Q2 last year

Content costs are front-loaded into the first half, which management flagged last quarter. But knowing something is coming doesn't always make it sting less.

The Reed Hastings Exit

Quietly tucked into the release: co-founder Reed Hastings won't stand for re-election as board chairman when his term expires at the Annual Meeting.

The company says this isn't a disagreement situation. Whether the market reads it that way is another thing entirely.

What Analysts Are Watching

The bull case for Netflix has been ads growth and sports. Both are real tailwinds.

But the more Netflix leans into live sports and advertising, the more it risks engagement friction, content crowding, and league dependency. This quarter started to make those risks feel less theoretical.

The structural strength in scripted content is still there. Netflix runs a platform-first model, which gives it more durability than a studio throwing money at IP.

The key question from the earnings call: how does management plan to protect its scripted dominance while scaling ads and sports without one cannibalising the other?

If they answer that convincingly, the after-hours selloff probably looks overdone by morning.

TL;DR

• Q1 revenue hit $12.25B (+16% YoY), beating estimates, with free cash flow doubling to $5.1B

• EPS of $1.23 included a $2.8B Warner Bros. termination fee — the "clean" beat was narrower than it looks

• Full-year guidance left unchanged, with the midpoint below consensus — the raise investors wanted didn't come

• Q2 guidance missed on both revenue and EPS, with margin expected to compress 150bps year-over-year

• Reed Hastings stepping down as board chairman at the Annual Meeting — framed as routine, market may not see it that way

• Ads + sports growth is real, but risks are mounting — the earnings call needs to explain how Netflix keeps scripted from getting squeezed

1. Buy The Dip on Netflix 
The after-hours drop is emotional, not fundamental. Revenue is growing, free cash flow doubled, and the platform model is intact. Markets overreact to guidance misses all the time.

📌 Action: Watch $NFLX ( ▲ 0.09% ) in early Friday trading. If it stabilises above key support, a short-to-medium term entry could catch the bounce when the earnings call narrative settles.

2. Ride The Streaming Advertising Wave 
Netflix doubling its ad revenue is part of a bigger trend. The whole sector is shifting toward ad-supported tiers. That money has to go somewhere… and the ad-tech companies feeding that pipeline could be quiet winners here.

📌 Action: Look at ad-tech and connected TV plays like $TTD ( ▲ 3.63% ) or $MGNI ( ▲ 3.22% ) . Both benefit directly as Netflix and rivals scale their ad inventory.

3. Rotate Into Streaming's Undervalued Rivals 
Netflix's guidance wobble opens a window. If the market reprices NFLX downward, money often rotates into cheaper streaming-adjacent names that suddenly look more attractive by comparison.

📌 Action: Screen $DIS ( ▼ 2.56% ) and $WBD ( ▼ 0.52% ) for relative value plays. Both have streaming exposure without Netflix's current premium valuation. A nervous Netflix is good news for the competition.

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If Hormuz Stays Shut... 🔒

A U.S.-Iran peace deal could take six months to finalise. Gulf Arab and European leaders know this. They're pushing hard for both sides to extend their ceasefire to cover the entire negotiating window.

The more urgent ask? Reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Now.

Leaders are warning privately that if the waterway isn't unblocked by next month, a global food crisis could follow. That's not hyperbole. The Strait moves a staggering share of the world's oil, LNG, aluminium, and fertilisers.

Oil markets are already screaming.

Brent crude has crossed $98 a barrel, up 3.5% recently and 35% since the conflict kicked off in late February. Gulf states can't export at normal levels. The world is feeling it.

What Gulf states actually want from any deal:

• A full ban on Iran enriching uranium

• No long-range ballistic missiles

• Dismantling of Tehran's proxy network and drone capabilities

The UAE put it plainly: any deal needs to address Iran's "nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, drones, military capabilities, and affiliated proxies and terrorist groups." That's basically a wishlist for a completely defanged Iran.

Here's where the current standoff sits.

Washington and Tehran are weighing a two-week truce extension. The current one expires Tuesday. But the sticking points are massive: Iran wants indefinite control over the Hormuz Strait, sanctions relief, and resolution of the Lebanon war.

One potential breakthrough on the table: Iran could allow ships to sail freely through Omani waters on the strait's other side… as long as a deal gets done. No harassment, no attacks.

What's not clear: whether Iran would clear any mines it may have placed there, or whether Israeli-linked vessels would be included.

The whole proposal hinges on Washington meeting Tehran's demands. So, not exactly a done deal.

Meanwhile, Lebanon just got a ceasefire.

Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce starting 5pm ET, following talks in Washington.

Trump, in peak Trump fashion: "It has been my Honor to solve 9 Wars across the World, and this will be my 10th, so let's, GET IT DONE!"

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun reportedly thanked Trump. Netanyahu agreed. The truce is on.

Why does this matter for Iran? Tehran had cited Israel's attacks on Hezbollah as a violation of its own ceasefire with the U.S. The Lebanon pause could remove that objection and unlock broader Iran negotiations.

The U.S. and Israel insist the Iran ceasefire was never meant to cover Hezbollah operations. Iran disagrees. Classic.

TL;DR

• Gulf and European leaders believe a U.S.-Iran deal is ~6 months away and want the ceasefire extended to match

• The Strait of Hormuz must reopen by next month or a global food crisis is on the table

• Brent crude is at $98/barrel, up 35% since the conflict began in late February

• Gulf states want any deal to permanently strip Iran of nukes, long-range missiles, and proxy forces

• Iran has floated allowing ships through Omani waters — but the proposal is conditional on Washington meeting its demands

• A fresh 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire could be the unlock that moves the broader Iran talks forward

America's Debt Bomb Is Ticking ⏰ 

The former Treasury Secretary is urging policymakers to have a contingency plan ready in case demand for U.S. government bonds suddenly dries up.

Not "eventually." Now.

Why does this matter?

The Treasury market is the backbone of global finance. We're talking ~$31 trillion in bonds that governments, banks, pension funds, and foreign investors all rely on.

If demand drops sharply, yields spike. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs. Higher borrowing costs blow out the deficit. A bigger deficit means more bonds need to be sold. More bonds = more supply = even lower demand.

It's a debt doom loop. And Paulson thinks it's a real possibility.

What makes this different from 2008?

Back then, the crisis was a banking system problem. This one's structural.

It's about the sheer scale of U.S. debt and the government's never-ending appetite to issue more of it.

The nightmare scenario?

Private buyers step back. The Fed steps in as the buyer of last resort.

That's the bond market equivalent of your parents bailing out your credit card. It works, but it signals something has gone badly wrong. And it would likely push yields even higher.

Here's where yields sit right now across the curve:

• US 2Y — 3.78%

• US 5Y — 3.92%

• US 7Y — 4.11%

• US 10Y — 4.31%

• US 20Y — 4.91%

• US 30Y — 4.94%

That steep climb from 2Y to 30Y tells you the market is already pricing in long-term risk.

TL;DR

• Henry Paulson is calling for emergency contingency plans for the U.S. Treasury market

• A sudden drop in bond demand could trigger a debt doom loop of rising yields, higher deficits, and more borrowing

• This risk is structural — driven by the scale of federal debt — not a repeat of 2008

• In a worst case, the Fed becomes the primary buyer of U.S. debt, which would push yields higher still

• The yield curve is already steeply inverted, with 30Y yields nearly 120bps above the 2Y

• Paulson's message: the crisis may not be imminent, but the time to prepare is before it starts

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Worse Than Venezuela? 😬 

Round two is almost confirmed. Round one didn't land a knockout. But nobody's walking away from the table either.

The U.S. and Iran are heading back to Pakistan next week for a second round of peace talks, according to two senior Pakistani officials involved in coordinating both sides.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the talks would "very likely" be held in Islamabad again, calling Pakistan "the only mediator in this negotiation."

Where things stand right now

The current ceasefire expires Tuesday, April 21.

Nobody wants it to lapse. But nobody's officially agreed to extend it either.

A possible two-week extension is on the table to buy time for technical talks. Specifically around two sticking points:

• Reopening the Strait of Hormuz (still restricted, still rattling oil markets)

• Iran's nuclear enrichment program (the big one)

The first round last weekend was a 21-hour marathon led by VP JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. They came out with no deal and apparently no sleep.

But there's been real progress

Axios reported Tuesday that negotiators are closer to a framework agreement than at any point since talks began.

Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are all working overtime as mediators. Pakistan's Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir flew to Tehran on Wednesday to close remaining gaps personally.

Trump's team spent Tuesday on phones, backchannels, and draft proposals. Vance told a crowd in Georgia: "I think the people we're sitting across from wanted to make a deal. I feel very good about where we are."

Why Iran might blink first

The pressure on Tehran right now is genuinely severe.

Trump's naval blockade has cut off ~1.5 million barrels of oil per day — worth roughly $140M daily in lost exports.

That's not all. Iran is also dealing with:

• A 47-day internet shutdown costing $50M per day

• Cyberattacks on Sepah Bank

• U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that have shut down the country's two largest steel plants

One U.S. official put it bluntly: "Iran has no money. They're broke. We know it. And they know we know it."

Another official warned that if Iran can't export oil and runs out of storage, it may be forced to shut wells offline entirely. The comparison being floated internally: "worse than Venezuela under Maduro."

That's not a negotiating metaphor. That's a country on the edge.

TL;DR

• Round two of U.S.-Iran talks is expected in Islamabad next week, confirmed by Pakistani officials and the White House

• The current ceasefire expires April 21 — a two-week extension is being discussed but not yet agreed

• Significant progress was reported Tuesday, with both sides exchanging draft proposals toward a framework deal

• Key sticking points: Strait of Hormuz access and Iran's nuclear program

• Trump's naval blockade is cutting off ~$140M per day in Iranian oil exports, piling pressure on Tehran

• Iran is also absorbing internet shutdowns, cyberattacks, and industrial airstrikes — with one U.S. official warning the economic damage could rival Venezuela

1. Trade the Ceasefire Countdown 
The April 21 deadline is a binary event. A deal pumps oil down and risk assets up. No deal sends oil spiking and markets nervous. Either way, something moves hard.

📌 Action: Watch energy ETFs like $XLE ( ▲ 2.36% ) and $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) into Tuesday. A confirmed extension or deal is your signal to rotate into risk-on plays like $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) or $SPY ( ▼ 1.2% ) .

2. Play the Iran Reconstruction Trade 
If a deal gets done, Iran's economy needs rebuilding fast. That means oil infrastructure, steel, and industrial supply chains firing back up. The "peace dividend" trade is real and it moves early.

📌 Action: Keep $XME ( ▼ 4.45% ) (metals & mining ETF) and $FCX ( ▼ 4.73% ) (copper/industrial metals) on your watchlist. A framework agreement headline is your entry trigger.

3. Go Long on Oil Tanker Stocks 
The Strait of Hormuz is still restricted. When it reopens, tanker demand surges as suppressed Iranian oil floods back into global shipping lanes. That's a direct revenue event for tanker operators.

📌 Action: Watch $FRO ( ▼ 1.11% ) (Frontline) and $STNG ( ▼ 0.73% ) (Scorpio Tankers). Buy the rumour of a Hormuz deal, sell the news once volumes normalise.

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He can't be fired. Or can he? 🤔 

Donald Trump has made it official: Jerome Powell either steps down from the Fed's Board of Governors on time, or Trump fires him.

No grey area. No diplomatic softening.

Trump is also keeping the DOJ probe alive. And made it clear he's not dropping it. He's pushing for an investigation into the Fed's building renovation project and reiterated that he wants Kevin Warsh confirmed as the next Fed chair.

"We have to find out what happened," Trump told Fox Business.

For context, Powell said back in March that he won't leave his Board seat until the Justice investigation involving him wraps up. Trump, predictably, doesn't see that as Powell's call to make.

Here's where it gets interesting.

Under the Federal Reserve Act, a president can remove a Board member "for cause." What counts as "for cause?" Nobody actually knows. It's deliberately vague.

And that ambiguity is now sitting right in the middle of a constitutional standoff.

Prosecutors Show Up Unannounced

On Tuesday, three DOJ officials made a surprise visit to the Fed's Washington headquarters, attempting to access a construction site linked to the renovation project.

They were turned away. Safety and clearance protocols, apparently.

The Fed's outside counsel, Robert Hur, wasn't pleased. He fired off a letter to the DOJ arguing prosecutors were trying to skip the established legal channels. He also pointed to a prior court finding suggesting the DOJ's interest in the renovation project was more pretext than principle.

The DOJ pushed back. Jeanine Pirro cited cost overruns approaching 80% as justification for the scrutiny, framing it as a broader oversight question about one of the most powerful financial institutions on earth.

So: unannounced visit, denied entry, duelling legal letters, and an 80% budget blowout at the Federal Reserve.

Totally normal day.

TL;DR

• Trump threatened to fire Powell if he doesn't leave the Board of Governors on schedule

• He's keeping the DOJ probe into Powell active and wants answers on the Fed's renovation project

• Trump reiterated his preference for Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair

• Three DOJ officials showed up unannounced at Fed HQ and were denied access to the construction site

• The Fed's counsel objected, arguing prosecutors were bypassing legal channels and cited a prior court finding calling the DOJ's interest pretextual

• The DOJ defended its position, flagging ~80% cost overruns as grounds for closer examination

They Killed The $25k Rule ☠️ 

Retail traders just got a major buff.

The SEC just killed the $25,000 rule. And the market loved it.

Shares in Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.41% ) , Webull $BULL ( ▼ 3.29% ) , and eToro $ETOR ( ▼ 2.38% ) surged 7.8%, 8.9%, and 5.2% respectively on Wednesday morning after regulators greenlit a rule change that opens the door to day trading for millions of small investors.

Until now, anyone labelled a "pattern day trader" had to keep at least $25,000 in a margin account just to keep trading. Miss that threshold? You're locked out.

A pattern day trader, for context, is anyone who makes four or more day trades within five business days. So basically, anyone who's remotely active.

The new rule scraps the flat $25k requirement entirely.

Instead, traders just need to hold margin equity that reflects their actual market exposure at any given moment. In other words: size your account to your risk, not to an arbitrary number a regulator picked decades ago.

FINRA proposed the change. The SEC fast-tracked it.

The ripple effect hit the whole brokerage sector.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▼ 7.82% ) , which now offers stock and ETF trading alongside crypto, climbed 3.8%. Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▼ 1.04% ) gained 5.1% after also posting strong Q1 earnings (it owns E*Trade). Charles Schwab $SCHW ( ▲ 1.61% ) added 1.1% and Interactive Brokers $IBKR ( ▼ 1.45% ) rose 2.6%.

More traders in the market is good for everyone selling access to it.

TL;DR

• The SEC approved a FINRA rule change scrapping the $25,000 minimum for pattern day traders

• New rule ties required margin to actual market exposure, not a fixed threshold

• Robinhood +7.8%, Webull +8.9%, eToro +5.2% on the news

• Coinbase +3.8% as its stock/ETF expansion makes it a direct beneficiary

• Morgan Stanley +5.1% on a double catalyst: the rule change and strong Q1 earnings

• Schwab and Interactive Brokers also gained, reflecting broad sector optimism

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Europe Just Froze Out America 🥶 

Europe is building its own Strait of Hormuz rescue mission, and the U.S. isn't invited.

The Wall Street Journal reports that European nations are drafting a coalition plan to secure the strait once the current conflict ends, with one very deliberate rule: no American command.

France's Macron made it plain — the mission excludes all "belligerent parties." That's the U.S., Israel, and Iran out of the driver's seat.

Germany is expected to officially sign on as early as Thursday. Macron and UK PM Keir Starmer are hosting a Friday video call with dozens of countries to lock in the framework.

So what does the plan actually look like? Three phases:

• Phase 1: Logistics to free the hundreds of ships currently trapped in the strait

• Phase 2: A massive demining operation — Europe has 150+ minesweeping vessels to deploy

• Phase 3: Military escorts via frigates and destroyers, modelled on Operation Aspides in the Red Sea

Worth noting: Europe's minesweeping fleet dwarfs America's. The U.S. largely decommissioned its own, which makes this less of a diplomatic gesture and more of a practical reality.

Trump had pushed Europe to join a U.S.-led effort including a blockade of Iranian ports. Macron called reopening the strait by force "unrealistic," saying it would take "an infinite amount of time" and leave ships exposed to coastal threats.

What’s this code for? Europe's voters hate this war, and European leaders aren't about to cosign a blockade strategy for it.

French Foreign Minister Barrot was careful to stress the mission only deploys "once calm has been restored and hostilities have ceased"… and would coordinate with Iran and Oman, not confront them.

This isn't Europe going rogue. It's Europe quietly building the infrastructure to matter without needing Washington's blessing.

TL;DR

• Europe is forming an independent coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz post-conflict, explicitly excluding U.S. command

• France and the UK are leading the effort, with Germany expected to join imminently

• The three-phase plan covers logistics, demining, and military escorts — modelled on Red Sea precedent

• Europe has 150+ minesweepers vs. a largely decommissioned U.S. fleet, giving them genuine operational leverage

• Macron rejected Trump's blockade push as unrealistic and politically toxic for European audiences

• The coalition will coordinate with Iran and Oman — this is a de-escalation play, not a confrontation

1. Ride the European Defence Wave
Europe is building independent military capability — fast. A coalition of frigates, destroyers, and 150+ minesweepers doesn't come cheap. Defence budgets across the continent are heading one way only.

📌 Action: Look at European defence ETFs like $EUAD ( ▼ 3.66% ) or individual names like $RNMBY ( ▼ 2.42% ) and $BAESY ( ▼ 4.69% ) . This is a multi-year tailwind, not a day trade.

2. Play the Shipping Recovery
Hundreds of ships are currently trapped. Once the strait reopens, there's a freight backlog that needs clearing — fast. That's a surge in shipping demand, rates, and revenue.

📌 Action: Position in global shipping stocks like $ZIM ( ▼ 0.43% ) or $SBLK ( ▼ 0.79% ) ahead of any ceasefire announcement. The "strait reopens" headline will move these hard.

3. Stack Energy Infrastructure Exposure
A Europe-led Hormuz mission signals long-term instability in Middle East oil routes. That accelerates European investment in alternative energy infrastructure and LNG terminals to reduce dependency.

📌 Action: Consider LNG plays like $TTE ( ▲ 0.94% ) or $FLNG ( ▲ 0.88% ) . Europe needs energy security and is now actively building it… with or without US help.

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Why Stocks Exploded Today 🚀 

Wall Street had a good Tuesday.

The S&P 500 closed +1.2%, the Nasdaq jumped +2%, and even the Dow managed a respectable +0.7% gain.

The catalyst? A potential U.S.-Iran peace deal that could finally cool down one of the world's most combustible flashpoints.

Here's what's happening.

Trump told a New York Post reporter that Iran has reached out for negotiations, and that talks could happen "over the next two days". Possibly in Pakistan.

Yes, Pakistan. Not Geneva. Not a neutral island somewhere. Pakistan.

The key player here is Pakistan's Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, who Trump described as "fantastic" and credited with facilitating the potential talks.

The two built a rapport during last year's India-Pakistan conflict, which the U.S. helped bring to a close in four days flat.

Why Pakistan though?

Trump's logic: Munir is doing a great job, they have a good relationship, so why go somewhere with "nothing to do with it"?

Hard to argue with that energy, honestly.

There's still a lot of friction in the background. The U.S. is currently enforcing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and previous talks in Islamabad led by VP JD Vance went nowhere.

But markets clearly liked the vibe. Less Middle East chaos = lower oil risk = tech can breathe again.

TL;DR

• 📈 S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +2%, Dow +0.7% on Tuesday

• Trump says Iran reached out for negotiations, talks could happen "within two days"

• Potential venue: Pakistan, brokered by Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir

• Trump and Munir developed a strong relationship after the U.S. helped end the India-Pakistan conflict

• Previous Islamabad talks led by JD Vance produced no breakthrough

• U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains active despite diplomatic signals

Big Tobacco's Suicide Note 🗒️ 

The company best known for selling cigarettes is now publicly calling for fewer people to smoke them.

Philip Morris International $PM ( ▼ 1.17% ) dropped a white paper Tuesday with a bold premise: America hasn't solved its smoking problem, it's just stopped talking about it.

The report, titled "The Forgotten Smoker," argues that public health officials, policymakers, and doctors need to get serious again about adult smokers… and fast.

Nearly three-quarters of Americans agree those same officials should be doing more to tackle cigarette use and clear up the confusion around combustible versus non-combustible products.

So what does PM actually want?

• FDA to move faster on authorizing smoke-free nicotine alternatives

• Tax policy redesigned to penalise the most harmful products

• Better education for healthcare providers on tobacco harm reduction

• Dedicated support for long-term, highly dependent smokers

The market wasn't thrilled. PM, Altria $MO ( ▲ 0.94% ), and British American Tobacco $BTI ( ▼ 2.41% ) all dropped ~2% on Tuesday — with investors spooked that "smoking cessation" and "tobacco company" are now appearing in the same sentence.

Here's the twist though.

PM's smoke-free products pulled in nearly $17B in revenue in 2025. That's 41.5% of total sales. By Q4, smoke-free crossed 50% of total revenue for the first time.

Heated tobacco units (HTU) grew 10.2%, while cigarette volumes only dipped 1.1%.

Philip Morris isn't asking people to quit nicotine. It's asking them to switch delivery methods.

The company calls this "tobacco harm reduction". The idea being: if people are going to use nicotine anyway, let's make it less likely to kill them.

They point to Sweden as proof of concept. As snus (a smokeless tobacco tucked under the lip) became more widely adopted, cigarette use fell steadily. Nicotine didn't go away. Combustion did.

As PM put it: "Ending smoking will not happen through attrition."

They're right. And they also happen to sell the replacement product. Make of that what you will.

TL;DR

• PM published a white paper urging America to get serious about helping adult smokers transition away from cigarettes

• It calls for faster FDA approvals, smarter tax policy, and better public education on smoke-free alternatives

• PM, MO, and BTI all fell ~2% as investors fretted over the cessation-heavy framing

• PM's smoke-free segment hit $17B in 2025 revenue and crossed 50% of total sales in Q4

• The strategy isn't "quit nicotine" — it's "switch to something less lethal"

• Sweden's snus shift is the cited blueprint: less combustion, same nicotine, better outcomes