*as of 8/11; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Over the weekend, Goldin’s 2026 Summer TCG Elite Auction generated $18 million in sales, with seven cards topping $500,000 and twelve topping $200,000. The top result was for a 1999 Promo Bulbasaur card that sold for more than $800,000, with a similar Promo Charmander card also going for $640,000. It’s not just trading cards that are generating massive sales, as three mint-condition unopened Pokémon Game Boy games just sold for a record $2 million in a private sale.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The Pokémon craze is showing no signs of slowing down, with top sales at Goldin representing significant gains over previous sales and comps. The promo cards have fewer than twenty known copies in existence, and trophy cards, one of which sold for more than $700,000, are generally one of one. The $2 million video game sale was for three first print copies, two of which were graded a perfect 10 by PSA, an exceptionally rare grade. Scarcity is driving the gain in values, with these rare items becoming blue-chip collectibles.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Corner Ventures and Aurite AI’s John Caddedu about his 25-year VC journey, incubating AI startups, and investing into farmland.

🚀 More unicorns than ever: In the first half of the year, 195 startups reached “unicorn status by passing the $1 billion valuation milestone, more than hit that mark in all of 2025. Sectors leading the way were primarily AI-related, particularly in robotics, infrastructure and defense.

🏡 Existing home sales fall: U.S. existing-home sales dipped 1.7% monthly but were up 0.7% year-over-year, staying surprisingly stable despite the recent rise in mortgage rates. Median sales prices increased 2% year-over-year and currently sit at $434,100, an all-time high.

🤖 AI VC records: More than $400 billion has been raised by AI startups globally through the first half of the year, ahead of the total for all of last year, though nearly half of that came from OpenAI and Anthropic. Similarly, exit value hit an all-time high of $391 billion though $250 billion of that came from SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI.

💵 Private equity backlog: There are now more than 33,000 unsold portfolio companies held by private equity firms, a record-high and double the amount from a decade ago. Difficulty finding buyers willing to pay for assets at inflated valuations has led to a slowdown in exit activity and a liquidity crunch.

📊 Small business optimism ticks up: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped by 2.4 points in July to 99.8, which pushed it back above its 52-year historical average. This rise was driven by improvement in hiring plans and capital outlay expectations, despite an overall increase in owners’ uncertainty.

⚽ Bezos buying share of Liverpool: A group of investors including Jeff Bezos is acquiring 30% of the English Premier League club Liverpool for a reported £1.35 billion, valuing the team at around $6 billion. This is another recent example of high net-worth investors and private equity groups buying shares of well-known sports teams.

The native token of Ondo, a tokenization platform focused on Real-World Assets (RWAs), dropped more in the past week than any other token in the top-50 by market cap. This decline came despite a new partnership with the crypto exchange KuCoin, and its tokenized stock platform crossing $1 billion in total value locked. One potential reason for the decline this week is related to founder Nathan Allman’s tragic death at age 32 in late May. This week, Allman’s mother sued to remove the new CEO Ian De Bode and give her control of the company, leading to uncertainty over the future direction of the company. Ondo’s token price has fallen 66% in the past year, though it has mostly traded flat since January, despite Allman’s unexpected passing.

*as of 8/10; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The median IRR for VC funds since 2020 is trailing those from 2016-2019, and the deviation between top performing funds and the bottom is wider than ever. While it’s early, the median IRR for 2025 vintage funds is -2%, with the bottom decile at -20.3%. In comparison, 2016 vintage funds have a median IRR of 15.6% and the bottom decile is still positive at 3.9%. Overall, though, VC funds posted the best returns of any strategy over the trailing twelve months from Q1, followed by funds of funds and private equity, thanks largely to AI-driven markups.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Breaking down VC returns by vintage is instructive for investors as it shows how macro factors can affect returns across an asset class and emphasizes the importance of diversification. The industry is also adjusting to the widening gap between top and bottom performers, as much more of the fundraising is going to bigger, more established funds. It is also too early to close the book on recent vintages, as 5-year returns do not have a strong correlation to 10-year returns.

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❗ Extreme bullish level: The Bank of America market sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, as equities hit record-highs. Investors should take note that a high reading in BofA’s indicator generally acts as a signal that the market has reached its top and is primed for a downward turn.

🏢 CRE leads investor picks: Commercial real estate finished first in a new investor preference survey, beating out stocks, bonds, and cash, with apartments leading the way within the sector. However, the improved sentiment may not lead to increased activity, as investors still believe holding is a stronger play currently than buying or selling.

🚀 Whatnot’s big fundraise: The livestreaming shopping platform raised $545 million at a valuation of $20 billion, nearly double its $11.5 billion valuation from a year ago. The company has already generated more sales so far this year than it did in all of 2025, and the investor interest is also a good sign for the collectibles market, which dominates Whatnot’s platform.

🏡 Hottest zip codes: Based on how many days properties stay on the market and its “hotness score",” Realtor.com released its list of the hottest zip codes in each state. Of those zip codes, 71% carry a price premium compared to the rest of its metro area, with an average premium of 21%.

🪙 Crypto projects folding: More than 100 crypto projects have gone under in 2026 so far, a symptom of the overall downward trend in the market. This wave of shutdowns has been compared to the dot-com bust, and it similarly would be good for the companies and projects that survive this bear market.

🤖 AI-created viruses: For the first time, researchers have used AI models to create complete genomes of 16 new viruses that then successfully infected and killed targeted bacteria in laboratory settings. Obviously, there are concerns that this technology could lead to nefarious actors creating new viruses to target humans, one more item on the list of AI-related issues to worry about.

(Whitetail Properties Real Estate)

NFL wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers from the Indianapolis Colts this past offseason, and has now put his 40-acre farm on the market. Located in Zionsville, around 20 miles northwest of Indianapolis, the property has a 7,560 square foot, 6 bed/6.5 bath mansion with two garages for five cars, and ample outdoor space. Pittman was known for keeping a lot of different animals, including horses, llamas, goats, dogs, chickens, an emu, a turkey, cows, and Italian honeybees. As such, the property has 27 acres of pasture land, three fenced pastures, four livestock loafing sheds, and a round pen. While the $4 million asking price doesn’t include Pittman’s animals, the land seems suited for someone who wants to live the farmer lifestyle but not be too far from an urban center.

*as of 8/9, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

This Thursday, Robinhood is launching its next publicly traded venture fund, the aptly named Robinhood Venture Fund II, which will have the ticker RVII. Unlike RVI, its first fund, this one will will investing in early stage startups exclusive founded by current and former Y Combinator participants. The full list of investments already in the fund has been released, containing shares of around 80 companies across 7 sectors. There are a number of fees for investors to consider, with the fund paying a 2% management fee and 20% carry to another entity owned by Robinhood, and an additional 2% in other fees.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It is difficult for retail investors to get access to early stage startups and the potential asymmetric returns they can provide, and this new fund is a straightforward opportunity to do so. However, the fee load is significant and there are no distributions planned, nor any end date where investors can get liquidity. This means that investors will have to rely on the share price moving up to get returns, and share price does not always move in lockstep with the net asset value (NAV) of the fund. Robinhood’s first venture fund (RVI), which holds late-stage startups such as OpenAI and Databricks, has seen its share price more than double after the IPO before falling all the way back down.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin was joined by Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund to explore the recent IPO of SpaceX, its market performance, and the potential upcoming IPOs of major AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks.

📊 Disappointing jobs report: The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a surprise given the Dow Jones forecast was for a gain of 83,000. The numbers for June and July were both revised downward, indicating a labor market that has been weakening for some time. Paradoxically, the markets reacted favorably to the news because it makes the odds of Fed rate hike slimmer.

📈 SpaceX surge: Defying expectations, SpaceX’s stock rose 16% on Friday, nearly clawing back to its IPO price in the wake of its first lock-up expiration that made 900 million shares publicly tradeable, more than double the previously outstanding share count. There are a number of additional lock-up expiration dates coming that could lead to different results, but the first one did not see massive selling pressure.

🚀 Hadrian fundraise: The AI-related defense tech startup raised nearly $1.4 billion at a $7.9 billion valuation, nearly five times its valuation from January. This funding round is just the latest in a string of high-profile defense tech raises that have seen significant valuation jumps.

🏢 Retail strength: U.S. retail sales were up 6.7% year-over-year in June, boosting the retail real estate sector, which currently has historically low vacancy rates and saw annual rent increases of 2.2%.

🏡 Active inventory increasing: Total housing inventory on the market is up 3.2% year-over-year, while the median listing price fell 2% in the same timeframe. Price cut activity is increasing, which is an indication that prices will continue to fall through the rest of the year.

🪙 Trump pulls back from crypto: The President’s media company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is pulling out of two deals with Crypto.com, including a digital asset treasury and a prediction market platform. Whether the decision was made because the crypto space has been struggling or because of political pressure is unclear, but the relationship between Trump and crypto is worth keeping an eye on.

This week: Monterey Car Week, the biggest week of the year in the classic car world, kicks off today and will feature highly anticipated auctions from Sotheby’s and Gooding & Company, among others.

Tuesday: Existing home sales report released; NFIB small business optimism index released.

Wednesday: Consumer price index (CPI) inflation report released.

Thursday: Producer price index (CPI) inflation report released.

Friday: U.S. retail sales report released.

*as of 8/6; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX)
Current share price: $114.92 ($1.5 trillion market cap)

• I’d like to buy it under $90, which could happen with the future lock-up expirations

• Google and Facebook both sank lower after their IPOs before recovering significantly

• SpaceX is so uniquely positioned that it’s hard to erode their market share

• There was a lot of excitement over the IPO that has turned negative with the lock-up expirations coming, but in five years it could be at a big number

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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John Cadeddu is the founding and managing partner at Corner Ventures. John brings 25 years of venture capital experience to this role and is a generalist with domain expertise in machine learning and artificial general intelligence. Prior to Corner, John co-founded DAG Ventures in 2004 and was Key Man for Funds I-V. As a venture investor, John has led investments in over 60 companies, including Bloom Energy, FireEye, Ambarella, Yelp, Pacific BioSciences, Jasper Technologies, Xoom, Eventbrite, Nextdoor, OneMedical and Wealthfront. Prior to this, John worked at JP Morgan, Tandem Computers and Octel Communications. He earned his BA with Honors from Harvard College and his MBA from Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. John co-founded Aurite in 2023 following the release of ChatGPT. John and his wife, Wendy, established a college scholarship fund in their Canadian hometown 25 years ago that has enabled 149 students, and counting, to attend university.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orbit2Orbit founder Bradley Hatton-Jones about the SpaceX IPO, the future of space logistics, investing into space tech, and the in-orbit economy.

🚀 Bending Spoons buys Airtable: The recently IPO’d Italian software conglomerate has agreed to buy Airtable for $1.28 billion, a massive discount to the company’s peak valuation of $11.7 billion in 2021. Earlier this year, secondary shares were still trading in the $4 billion range, so the purchase price should concern investors who are still anchored to earlier valuations when evaluating private companies.

🏢 Data center construction: A record-high $81.5 billion has been spent on data center construction in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, which already eclipses the total for all of 2025. Both the number and average size of new projects are growing quickly as demand for AI infrastructure continues to explode.

🤖 Labor shortage woes: While demand for data center construction grows, a bottleneck is emerging in the persistent shortage of skilled trade workers needed for large-scale construction projects. This shortage is causing delays in project completions and rising costs across the board.

🏡 Sales surged in July: Zillow’s latest market report showed that U.S. home sales rose 7% year-over-year last month, but that increase may be short-lived as pending listings fell 7.7% due to mortgage rates increasing.

💵 Ares cuts back: The alternative asset manager is scaling back its semi-liquid private credit fund following pushback over valuation practices, in another blow to the struggling private credit sector.

🎨 AI art authentication: The startup QuantumSpace is using AI to try and address forgery in the art world, as authentication remains crucial to auction houses and collectors.

Monday: 📉 Closed-end funds, 💵 Record default rate
Tuesday: ⚾ National recap, 🚀 Energy fundraises
Wednesday: 🚀 Secondary market update, 📈 Equity record-highs
Thursday: 🏢 Office sector rebound, 🚀 VC funding record

Have a great weekend!

*as of 8/5; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The U.S. office sector is continuing its comeback, with leasing demand hitting its highest level in seven years, posting a net absorption of 16.9 million square feet - meaning that more tenants are leasing space than exiting it. Class A buildings accounted for 87% of the net absorption gains, with top quality office space seeing its vacancy rates drop 70 basis points. While average asking rents fell slightly by 0.2% in the quarter, they are still up 2.2% year-over-year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The office sector is rebounding slowly but surely, as 89% of employers are now requiring at least three days of in-office attendance per week, up from 78% last year. Two-thirds of companies are planning to keep or grow their office footprint in the next three years. Additionally, a record-low amount of office space is currently under construction, which will continue to shift the supply-demand balance back towards landlords.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin is joined by Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund to explore the recent IPO of SpaceX, its market performance, and the potential upcoming IPOs of major AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks.

📊 ADP employment report: Private sector job growth cooled significantly last month, with 44,000 jobs added compared to 95,000 in June and the 75,000 originally forecast for July. This slowdown could be a signal of a slowing labor market, with a fuller picture coming Friday with the official U.S. jobs report.

🚀 VC funding records: There were 14 funding rounds of a billion dollars or more last month, a new all-time record, as overall funding doubled year-over-year to $65 billion. The biggest fundraises of the month came from Blue Origin, Safe Superintelligence, and Moonshot AI.

🏡 Listing prices continue decline: The median U.S. housing listing price fell for the ninth straight month and is now down 2.4% year-over-year. When adjusted for price per square foot, though, prices are slightly up in the Midwest and Northeast and down in the South and West.

💵 Discounted private credit stakes: A number of publicly traded private credit vehicles, such as Blue Owl’s Capital Corp (NYSE: OBDC), are currently trading at sharp discounts to their net asset values (NAV), as the S&P’s BDC Index is down 21.4% this year. This drawdown offers investors the ability to buy into discounted positions, if they are willing to assume the risk that the market could keep falling.

🪙 IRS crypto crackdown: Only half of U.S. taxpayers with crypto holdings have been reporting their transactions to the IRS, but the new rules that have formalized tax reporting for digital asset brokers and taxpayers is making it easier for the IRS to track.

⚽ “Hand of God” ball: The game-used ball from Diego Maradona’s legendary 1986 World Cup goal is coming for auction later this month at Heritage, and could become the most expensive piece of soccer memorabilia ever.

Last week, Google rolled out a new feature that allowed users to create AI-generated images on Google Earth, a move that was widely criticized for encouraging the creation of deceptive content. The company quickly withdrew the feature, but it begged the question of why it was introduced in the first place, as there doesn’t seem to be much utility in something that can be used to fabricate satellite photos. With the advent of AI-generated images, the Internet has already become a place where no photo or video can be initially trusted, and major tech companies don’t seem to be concerned enough about the lack of trust. Google, which built its reputation on providing quality information to users, should know this better than others.

Invest in the Growing Space Industry

Outside of AI, no other Pre-IPO sector has attracted as much investor attention so far in 2026 as space, led by SpaceX’s record-setting IPO and Blue Origin’s recent $10 billion fundraise. VC funding to space-related startups hit $15.5 billion over 300 deals in the first two quarters, a new record-high.

Why Invest in Space?

The reason for the increased investor attention on the sector is the tremendous growth potential that space offers, with current technology merely the tip of the iceberg. The sector is expected to be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035, growing at more than twice the rate of the overall GDP. Capital is flowing to companies across the industry, from launch companies to spacecraft and satellite manufacturers. Notable raises this year include $860 million to Stoke Space, $450 million to Astranis, and $200 million to Apex Space.

The space industry is already evolving as the cost of launch has gone down significantly, meaning the barrier to entry for new space stations, space data centers, space-based solar power, in-space manufacturing and other ideas previously consigned to science fiction have become financially feasible. However, once all of these structures are in space, there needs to be a cheap and effective way of transferring goods between them.

This in-orbit logistics market is still wide open, with no clear market leader, the way SpaceX has achieved with launch. The market size of just cargo movement in space is projected to grow by 18.6% annually until 2034 to nearly $8 billion. Right now, the current model assumes that cargo leaves Earth for one destination and that it is. There is no horizontal support network, and this opening is leading to a strategic shift in capital. A company that can offer reuseable, refuellable, and maintainable spacecraft and a full-serve in-space logistics network would have access to a potentially gigantic market.

Who is Orbit2Orbit?

Orbit2Orbit was founded in Australia in 2025 to address this growing gap in the space industry and build infrastructure that can move cargo between orbital vehicles. It is led by a team with more than 60 years of experience in aerospace and spacecraft development and involvement in 12 successful space missions.

With its Reusable Transport Spacecrafts (RTS), Orbit2Orbit is building a first-of-its-kind self-sustaining space logistics and distribution network that will support the exponential growth of the launch industry. It will lower operational costs an estimated 40% by using shared, in-orbit vehicles rather than repeating Earth-to-orbit launches.

CEO Bradley Hatton-Jones led the design and build of Australia’s largest rocket manufacturing facility and supported the development of the Eris launch vehicle. He recently won the Innovation and Technology Award at the South African in Australia awards. CTO Philippe Laniakea has over a decade of experience leading complex spacecraft development and integration programs. CSO Amal Khatri has 25 years of space experience and was Executive Director of The South African National Space Agency.

It is supported by the Australian government via the New South Wales Space Research Network, and is backed by Fusion Growth Labs, a $100 million Australian venture platform and accelerator.

Why invest in Orbit2Orbit?

Orbit2Orbit is building critical infrastructure for one of the world’s fastest-growing industries, and rather than competing with launch providers, it is working in tandem with them, in what is more of a “picks and shovels” play. It will enable autonomous cargo movement between orbital platforms, a crucial part of the future of the space industry. With the number of commercial space stations, satellite networks, and other orbital infrastructure expected to grow over the next decade, there is going to be significant demand for in-space transportation. The total addressable market (TAM) of the space logistics sector is expected to exceed $50 billion by 2035, and Orbit2Orbit is projecting a $2 billion market share.

It has already secured commercial customers, with signed LOIs exceeding $10 million from clients such as Queensland University of Technology, Space CoLAB, EmTDLab, and Astraea Technologies. It has established global launch capability and already had a successful launch of its first Lab2Space mission, achieving “flight heritage,” meaning its hardware has been proven in real space conditions. It has also built realistic flight environments that help customers validate technologies before reaching orbit, which reduce risks, and improves mission success. The company expects to have reusable transport spacecraft, orbital servicing units, and a full logistics network in place by 2030.

Orbit2Orbit has a dedicated in-house manufacturing facility, clean room, and mission operations headquarters, which is already operational. This vertical integration leads to cost efficiencies and the potential for rapid expansion. The company is also part of a technology consortium alongside multiple other space-related startups to pool expertise and lower costs.  Additionally, Australia’s less crowded and flexible airspace is a competitive advantage.

Investing into Orbit2Orbit is a unique opportunity to get in early on a startup in a fast-growing sector with massive potential, before it completes its public offering.

*as of 8/4; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

In the last twelve months, $120 billion of Pre-IPO secondaries were traded, an all-time record, as investors targeted shares of companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic before they hit public markets. An estimated 85% of all volume went to the top twenty Pre-IPO companies, with around half going to the top five. Nearly all transaction volume has gone to startups that are more than six years old, and more than half has gone to companies valued at $20 billion or more. Pitchbook named its next top-10 Pre-IPO companies, and estimated Stripe, Kraken, and Discord to be the most likely to go public within the next three years — with each having more than a 50% chance of going public within the next five.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The Pre-IPO market has skyrocketed in the past few years, though SpaceX’s underwhelming IPO has raised some questions about whether the momentum can continue through OpenAI and Anthropic’s anticipated IPOs. Yesterday’s investor briefing looked at the future of the market and discussed a number of major startups that could go public in the next year.

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📈 Equity record-highs: Both the S&P 500 and the Dow rose more than 1.7% yesterday to close at record-highs, as AI-related stocks continued their hot week and crude oil prices declined amid higher hopes for an end to the Iran War.

🏡 Home price projections: Zillow is now projecting flat national home price growth over the next year, with prices rising 1.1% in the previous twelve months. This growth is below both the rate of inflation and average national wage expansion, so housing figures to become relatively more affordable. Rockford, IL projects as the top market for value appreciation, with Austin, TX predicted to see the largest annual price decline.

🚀 Base Power fundraise: The clean energy battery startup raised $1 billion at a $13 billion valuation, more than triple its valuation from last year. This haul marks yet another massive raise and valuation increase for energy-related startups, as electricity demand spikes due in part to the rise of AI.

🪙 Senators call to investigate Trumpcoin: Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal are calling on the SEC to investigate President Trump’s memecoin after its value fell 97% from its peak. An estimated one million retail buyers lost billions of dollars, while Trump and his family have earned more than a billion in crypto-related ventures.

🏡 Top luxury neighborhoods: Park Slope in Brooklyn is the top luxury housing neighborhood for 2026, based on homebuyer demand metrics and how much competition buyers face. It is followed by Highland Park, IL and Overland Park, KS.

👗 Whitney Houston auction: A number of the legendary singer’s dresses worn to awards shows will be among the personal items up for sale at Julien's Auctions next week to benefit the Whitney E. Houston Legacy Foundation.

The top performer last week of any coin in the top-50 by market cap was Cardano, which has otherwise had a difficult past year, seeing its value drop by 74% even after the recent surge. The proof-of-stake blockchain platform was the #3 overall cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2021, but has struggled to remain consistently relevant since then. The recent positive price movement is due to investor optimism surrounding major upcoming protocol upgrades, but often these types of spikes peter out and the price returns to where it was before.

*as of 8/3; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Last week, the biggest event of the year in the collectibles space took place, with the National Sports Collectors Convention outside Chicago drawing record crowds of an estimated 125,000-150,000 people over five days. As is always the case, major auction houses showcased six and seven-figure cards, and a lot of the trading activity took place in the off-hours at “trade nights.” There were also reports of a growing investor presence at the show, with more capital coming into the space and more participants treating it like an asset class.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The reports coming in from the weekend are largely positive for the industry, with more enthusiasm than ever and the growing presence of younger generations a strong sign for the future. Anecdotal evidence points to social media playing a big role in driving interest, with content creators now roaming the floor with full production crews. The rise of Pokémon and Trading Card Game (TCG) cards is also a significant factor in bringing younger people into the hobby. 2026 has been a strong year for collectibles, and the positive momentum seems to be on track to continue through the rest of the year.

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🚀 Commonwealth Fusion’s big raise: The fusion energy startup raised a $1 billion round at an undisclosed valuation, bringing its total capital raised to more than $4 billion, the most of any fusion startup. The alternative energy sector has attracted growing investor attention with the rapidly scaling power needs of the AI industry.

🚀 Antora Energy fundraise: The alternative energy startup closed a $550 million funding round at a reported $2.5 billion valuation, an estimated 3-5x above its previous unreported valuation from 2024. The company builds thermal batteries to supply cheap, clean power to industrial operations.

🏡 Best house-hacking markets: Midwestern markets Cincinnati, Detroit, and Indianapolis are the strongest for buyers looking to “house-hack” - living in one unit of a multifamily building while renting out the others. These markets offer relatively affordable entry points while still offering high enough rents to make the numbers work.

🪙 Coldcard Bitcoin exploit: Hackers have stolen approximately $116 million worth of Bitcoin from Coldcard hardware wallets in an ongoing hack related to a vulnerability in seed phrases. This is extremely concerning for crypto holders, as self-custodied hardware wallets are supposed to be the safest form of storage, and this hack puts that narrative into question.

💵 Pre-IPO lending: Wall Street's banks are ramping up their lending to those with large holdings of Pre-IPO shares in top AI companies, offering a form of liquidity to people who otherwise might be tempted to sell their shares on the secondary market.

🚘 McLaren F1 auction: A 1996 McLaren F1 GTR that competed in the 1995 Le Mans race is being auctioned this month at Sotheby’s as part of Monterey Car Week. It carries an estimated price tag of more than $35 million, which would make it the most expensive McLaren F1 car of all time.

(Realtor.com)

Do you want to live in a castle, but don’t want to deal with the massive upkeep that generally entails? A “tiny” castle in Eugene, Oregon just cut its price again to $1.15 million despite apparently grossing $100,000 per year in AirBnB revenue. The 2,000 square-foot castle has three bedrooms and a gourmet kitchen, with a separate basement studio with a private entrance, bathroom, and kitchenette. There is also a detached 1-bedroom guesthouse with a bathroom and kitchen, giving the property three separate rentable units. There is also a 2-car garage, and the property is located right behind a golf course. It was built in 1975 and last sold in 2022 for $875,000.

*as of 8/2, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Riding the wave of anticipation for SpaceX’s IPO, as well as potential IPOs for major startups such as OpenAI and Anthropic, publicly traded closed-end funds holding Pre-IPO shares exploded in value earlier this year. The Fundrise Innovation Fund (NYSE: VCX), Robinhood Ventures Fund I (NYSE: RVI) and Destiny Tech 100 (NYSE: DXYZ) all saw significant gains in mid-May, and all of them have seen their prices fall back to earth since. VCX hit $380 per share right after its IPO in March, then dropped below $80 before zooming up above $280 again in May. It is now sitting at $33 per share, a nearly 90% fall, and is down more than 40% in the past five days. RVI has fallen from $73 per share to below $25 per share, while DXYZ has dropped from above $70 to below $23.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The drawdown has always seemed inevitable, as all three Pre-IPO proxies were trading well above their official net asset values (NAVs) and prices became untethered from reality due to significant investor demand for exposure. With the price drops of SPCX since its IPO, and without the appeal of getting access to that name while private, retail investors are no longer buying into the hype and have been unloading their shares of these funds. One notable thing to watch for this month is the lockup expiration for VCX, which was moved up by a month to August 14. Pent-up selling demand from Pre-IPO holders could send the price even lower, and long-term believers in their portfolio could be looking at a bargain.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orbit2Orbit founder Bradley Hatton-Jones about the SpaceX IPO, the future of space logistics, investing into space tech, and the in-orbit economy.

💵 Record default rate: The private credit default rate reached a record high of 6.0% in Q2, up from 5.7% in Q1, according to the ratings agency Fitch. Contrary to industry concerns arising from AI, software companies actually posted the lowest default rates, while industrials and manufacturing posted the highest.

🤖 AI hedge fund collapse: The prominent AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, which had seen exponential gains of more than 1,000%, saw its holdings reportedly drop from $45 billion to $10 billion, leading to an emergency sale of almost its entire public equity portfolio to rival fund Citadel. Apparently, Situational Awareness was heavily leveraged and the recent downturn in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks led to a margin call.

🏢 Office prices ticking up: Suburban office prices rose 3% nationwide year-over-year, leading all asset types, with urban offices also up 1.2%. Industrial prices fell by 0.4%, apartments by 1.7%, and hotels by a surprising 9.3%. Overall, commercial real estate deal volume increased by 14% year-over-year, showing a robust market with plenty of investor demand.

🏡 Homebuying demand falling: Pending home sales dropped to a three-month low, while touring activity and Google searches for “homes for sale” have also fallen, indicating that homebuying demand has fallen as mortgage rates continue to inch up.

🚀 K2Space fundraise: The satellite manufacturing startup raised a $500 million round at a $6.8 billion valuation, more than double its $3 billion valuation from last December. The company now has more than $1 billion in signed commercial and government contracts.

🎬 Saturday Night Fever suit: The iconic white three-piece suit worn by John Travolta in the 1977 movie is coming up for auction later this month at Propstore with an estimated value of $400,000. It is one of nearly two thousand lots in the auction worth an estimated $10 million overall.

Wednesday: ADP private employment report released.

Thursday: The first major SpaceX lockup expiration will allow hundreds of millions of shares to be sold, which could cause a price drop.

Friday: U.S. jobs report for July released.

Sunday: Goldin’s Summer TCG Elite auction, featuring dozens of six-figure Pokémon cards.

*as of 7/30; Sources: S&P, BTC, 30YM, DJRE, GOLD

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB)
Current share price: $60.76

• It is an extremely impressive company

• They have grown a tremendous amount on a fraction of the capital that other space companies have had

• They just acquired a satellite communications company called Iridium

• That will give them a major leap forward in how things are going to be moving in space

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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The Space Economy Stops at Launch. Orbit2Orbit Doesn’t.

Billions go into getting payloads off the ground. Almost nothing exists to move them once they’re up there. Orbit2Orbit is building that layer: autonomous cargo vehicles that deploy, service, and transport payloads between orbital platforms. This isn’t a concept company. First mission flown, flight heritage achieved, manufacturing facility operational, commercial customers signed, and a qualified pipeline exceeding $10 million. A financing round is now open, with details available to interested investors. View the investor deck at orbit2orbit.space/investors or reach out at investors@orbit2orbit.space.

LEARN MORE

Bradley Hatton-Jones is the Founder and CEO of Orbit2Orbit, an Australian space company building the infrastructure required to validate, move and service technology beyond Earth. Bradley led the design and build of Australia’s largest rocket manufacturing facility and supported the development of the Eris launch vehicle. He founded Orbit2Orbit in 2025 to address a growing gap in the space economy: launch can place hardware into orbit, but there is limited infrastructure to move, upgrade, service or retrieve it once it arrives.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orbit2Orbit founder Bradley Hatton-Jones about the SpaceX IPO, the future of space logistics, investing into space tech, and the in-orbit economy.

📊 Inflation cools slightly: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, fell 0.1% in June and the annual rate dropped from 4.1% to 3.7%. The main driver of the decline was the temporary truce in the Iran War, which led to lower gas prices. With the truce no longer intact and the war still ongoing, expect the cooling inflation to be a blip that will not continue when the July readings come out next month.

🚀 Jersey Mike’s IPO: The sandwich chain went public on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday with the ticker JMKE, raising $1 billion at a $7.3 billion valuation. The share price fell 6% in the first day of trading, a disappointing initial result given the expected investor demand.

⚾ $11 million Ohtani card: A 1-of-1 2026 Shohei Ohtani Topps Chrome Dual Gold Logoman autographed baseball card was pulled from a box, with the lucky collector immediately selling it for $11 million to investor Matthew Allen. The sale is the third-highest for any sports card in history and continues the hot market for Ohtani cards.

🤖 Moonshot AI fundraising: The Chinese AI startup that burst onto the scene only weeks ago with its Kimi K3 model has raised $3.5 billion at a $35 billion valuation, and is likely to go public in Hong Kong by the end of the year.

🪙 Crypto VC firms decline: The number of active crypto VC firms has fallen to around 150, nearly 90% fewer than the 1,177 firms at the industry’s peak in 2022. This steep decline shows that the majority of venture investors are pursuing other sectors as crypto has largely fallen out of favor.

💵 Fundraising struggles: Asset manager Blue Owl reported the slowest fundraising quarter for its flagship private credit fund in three years, pulling in less than half of Q1’s total.

Monday: ⚾ Collectibles boom, 🪙 BitMEX shutting down
Tuesday: 🏡 Top housing markets, 🚀 Boring company fundraise
Wednesday: 🏡 Housing prices, 📊 Consumer confidence dips
Thursday: 📊 Fed rate decision,  🏢 Industrial vacancy falls

Have a great weekend!

*as of 7/29; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

For the fifth straight meeting, and the second under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates steady. The market had been pricing in a 1 in 3 chance of a rate hike, so while the decision was not a surprise, it also hadn’t been a lock. There were three dissenters who voted for a rate hike to curb rising inflation. CME’s FedWatch tool now projects a 65% chance of a rate hike in September and more than a 50% chance of multiple rate hikes by next January.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Markets took a beating in the aftermath of the decision, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 down 1.7%, and the Dow Jones down 2.2% for its worst day since April 2025. Treasury yields were way up, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 2007, in clear anticipation of future rate hikes. Right now, it would take a major shift in the macro environment, such as a definitive end to the Iran War, to change the narrative. Otherwise, expect higher interest rates by the end of the year.

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🏢 Industrial vacancy falls: For the first time since 2022, rental demand for U.S. industrial real estate has exceeded new supply, driving down the national vacancy rate. Net absorption, the difference between new leasing and lease expirations, hit a level more than double last year’s, with strong demand anticipated to continue through the rest of the year.

🤖 Foreign robot ban: The Trump Administration is banning imports of foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots, in a move that is clearly targeted at China, the main rival to U.S.-made robots. The ban is ostensibly for national security reasons, has already led to an outcry from the Chinese government, and could lead to retaliatory measures.

🪙 Wash sale loophole: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is aiming to end a rule exception that exempts crypto from “wash sale” rules. Currently, digital asset investors can harvest tax losses and then immediately repurchase the same coins, a potentially lucrative move.

🏡 More mortgages for second homes: For the first time in four years, the number of second-home mortgage originations grew year-over-year, rising by 4.1%. This rise has come after a significant drop in second-home purchases after the pandemic boom, as high-income buyers start to dip their toes back into the vacation home market.

🚀 Seed investors target cybersecurity: Seed stage funding for AI-related cybersecurity startups reached $855 million across more than 150 funding rounds in 2026, on pace for an all-time high.

👟 Eminem sneaker auction: The rapper is putting more than 100 pairs of autographed, rare sneakers from his personal collection up for sale via Julien’s Auctions next month with the proceeds to benefit his charity. The most valuable pairs are expected to fetch $25,000-$35,000 each.

It has been widely discussed that AI’s massive amount of energy usage has led to higher electricity bills for Americans, but it turns out that it’s been pushing the prices of other goods higher and has become a significant driver of inflation. It’s estimated that households are spending $375 more this year to purchase the same goods and services they did last year. Apparently, 0.2 percentage points of overall inflation can be attributed to AI, roughly 6% of the current inflation rate. Besides electricity, the AI boom has pushed the price of consumer electronics higher, as well as computer hardware and software, and construction material and labor costs.

*as of 7/28; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed U.S. housing prices remaining essentially flat in May, but increasing by 1.1% year-over-year. Chicago once again was the top performing major market, followed by New York and Cleveland, with Las Vegas, Seattle, and Denver seeing the biggest price declines. Meanwhile, the FHFA House Price Index showed slightly better results with a 0.3% monthly gain and a 2.2% year-over-year gain.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Keep in mind that May was when inflation rose significantly, with the consumer price index reaching 4.2%, so housing prices are falling in real terms, though inflation has cooled in the past two months. On the other hand, mortgage rates have increased slightly since the end of May, which has limited market activity. The Fed seems likely to keep rates steady or even hike them the rest of the year, so don’t expect a reprieve on mortgage rates anytime soon.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orbit2Orbit founder Bradley Hatton-Jones about the SpaceX IPO, the future of space logistics, investing into space tech, and the in-orbit economy.

🚀 Jersey Mike’s IPO demand: The sandwich chain’s upcoming public offering this Thursday is reportedly 10 times oversubscribed, so it may be in line for a first day bump. The company is aiming to raise more than $1 billion at a $8 billion valuation.

📊 Consumer confidence dips: The Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence index fell 1.4 points to 90.8, as consumer outlook on the present state of the market declined for the third straight month. Expectations for the economy and labor market over the next six months also remained in negative territory.

🤖 Alphasense exploring IPO: Fresh off a new funding round that valued it at $7.5 billion, the AI startup is reportedly taking the first steps towards a public offering, as its annual recurring revenue has grown by 40% to more than $700 million.

🪙 Crypto’s quantum threat: Decentralized cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin will likely be the first systems tested by quantum computing advances. According to experts, the slow speed of governance could leave blockchains vulnerable to quantum sooner than expected.

🚀 Corgi raises more money: The AI insurance startup is raising its third round in the past two months at a $4 billion valuation, which would represent a sixfold increase in its value since January.

💵 Ares selling private credit stakes: The major asset manager is preparing to sell $3.4 billion worth of its flagship European direct lending strategy, which would would rank among the largest private credit secondaries deals ever.

It’s time for another check-in on Worldcoin, the eyeball-scanning crypto project backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as it once again had the biggest drop of any coin in the top-50 by market cap over the past week. The token’s value is down 16% in the past week, 28% in the past month, and 72% in the past year. Beyond the general downward trend, one catalyst for the price drop this week was the World Foundation selling 217.4 million tokens for $47.5 million USDC at a price of $0.24 per token, below market value. While there are lockup provisions, the deal shows what at least one large investor believes to be the market price, and it also raises concerns about future selling pressure. On the other hand, there is apparently some entity with deep pockets that still believes in the project.

*as of 7/27; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Midwest and Northeast metros once again dominate the top tier of the latest housing market rankings from Realtor.com and the Wall Street Journal, taking 19 of the top 20 spots. The rankings aggregate a combination of housing market conditions, quality-of-life measures, and local economic health. South Bend, IN was #1 overall for the third straight quarter, followed by Appleton, WI, and Lancaster, PA. A set of rankings for luxury housing markets was also released, with Pittsfield, MA taking the #1 spot, followed by Boulder, CO, and San Jose, CA, as more West Coast markets cracked the rankings.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The story of the post-pandemic era is the outperformance of mid-sized, Midwestern metros as affordability reigns supreme. Local economic conditions and low climate risk also contribute to the attractiveness of these areas for potential buyers. For luxury markets, there is more of an emphasis on quality-of-life and cultural destinations. Investors should always consider where buying demand is growing when searching for long-term rental stability and appreciation potential.

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🚀 Boring Company fundraise: The Elon Musk-led tunneling startup is reportedly raising a monster $4 billion funding round at a $20 billion valuation, nearly quadrupling its $5.7 billion value from 2022. The company’s most notable project is the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop, and it is expanding to Nashville and Dubai, but is a long way off from mainstream adoption.

🐉 Pokémon regulation: As the continuing boom in Pokémon cards is leading to fraudulent practices such as counterfeiting and money laundering, the Japanese government is considering new regulations. It could lead to better outcomes for collectors if cards are more easily authenticated and bad actors can be punished.

🤖 AI safety initiative: Following last week’s cyberattack by a rogue OpenAI model, Nvidia, Microsoft, SpaceX and other tech giants launched a dedicated security initiative designed to bolster defenses across AI models. This effort comes after many of the same companies, also led by Nvidia, released an open letter in defense of open-weight AI models in response to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatening sanctions on Chinese companies.

💵 Euronext private market: The European exchange operator Euronext is reportedly exploring plans to create a dedicated platform for trading private market shares designed to compete directly with new UK private trading platforms.

🚀 Stripe eyeing OpenRouter: The payments startup is reportedly in discussions to acquire the AI startup OpenRouter for $10 billion, well above its $1.3 billion valuation earlier this year. Stripe is clearly looking to expand its AI infrastructure and footprint as it attempts to move beyond just payment processing.

📜 Titanic letter record: A letter written aboard the Titanic by a passenger only days before he died when the boat sunk sold for a record-breaking £60,000 at auction, nearly double the pre-auction estimate. Titanic memorabilia has consistently been increasing in value as the wreck remains a source of fascination for many.

(Special Finds)

When you see that a 1,200 square foot, 1 bed, 1 bath property in New York City is on the market for just $65,000, you know there’s a catch. In this case, it’s a houseboat located on a marina in the Bronx. It does contain a full kitchen with appliances, washer & dryer, central heat and A/C, as well as freshwater storage tanks. It appears that the marina charges a reasonable $1,000 per month for slip fees, and there is running water year-round. Of course, there are all sorts of hidden costs and difficulties that come with living on a boat, especially during winter, and many marinas prohibit full-time residents. Still, there is also the possibility of turning it into a short-term rental, and the price tag is extremely low for NYC standards. While the listing says the boat is available for $65,000, a separate Craigslist post says $50,000, so do your own research.

*as of 7/26, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Major auction houses generated $10 billion in sales in the first half of the year, with totals up dramatically at Sotheby’s and Christie’s, and Heritage also setting its new record high. While the art market has experienced a turnaround, the boom has extended to cars, watches, luxury goods, sports cards, and sports and entertainment memorabilia, particularly on the high end. Over the weekend, a signed Jackie Robinson rookie card sold for a record-breaking $1.86 million, while a Pelé rookie card also topped the $1 million mark.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Both the art and collectibles markets tend to react to bigger economic trends, and are highly correlated to the health of the overall economy and stock market. With the AI boom minting new young millionaires, the art and collectibles sectors are benefitting. With massive tech IPOs promising to bring more liquidity to the market, expect price growth to continue in the short-term, particularly for rare blue-chip assets.

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The Space Economy Stops at Launch. Orbit2Orbit Doesn’t.

Billions go into getting payloads off the ground. Almost nothing exists to move them once they’re up there. Orbit2Orbit is building that layer: autonomous cargo vehicles that deploy, service, and transport payloads between orbital platforms. This isn’t a concept company. First mission flown, flight heritage achieved, manufacturing facility operational, commercial customers signed, and a qualified pipeline exceeding $10 million. A financing round is now open, with details available to interested investors. View the investor deck at orbit2orbit.space/investors or reach out at investors@orbit2orbit.space.

LEARN MORE

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund about the rapidly evolving field of quantum computing, its current state, future potential, and investment opportunities.

🪙 BitMEX shutting down: The crypto exchange that introduced perpetual futures and 100x leverage to Bitcoin trading is shutting down permanently in September, a downfall that began when its three founders were charged with violating the Bank Secrecy Act in 2020. The reputational damage from the charges crushed its trading volume, and the exchange is also facing a lawsuit accusing it of stealing Bitcoin from its users.

💵 Secondaries growth continues: Deal volume for private credit secondaries hit $20 billion in the first half of 2026, already beating the full-year total for 2025. There is still an estimated $31 billion in dry powder that secondaries funds have to deploy as they look for deals in a volatile market.

🏢 Co-working inventory grows: The number of U.S. coworking locations rose 2.7% in Q2, with much of that growth coming in smaller metro areas. While co-working still only represents 2.3% of national office supply, the facilities tend to be Class-A, amenity-heavy spaces competing with the top end of the market.

🚀 Colossal Biosciences fundraise: The startup best known for trying to resurrect the dire wolf and woolly mammoth is reportedly in talks to raise a new round at a $20 billion to $30 billion valuation, well above its $10 billion valuation from last year. Secondary marketplaces are valuing the company closer to $6 billion, so potential investors should keep an eye out.

🏡 New home sales tick up: Sales of new U.S. single family homes rose 1.6% last month, but are still down 5.6% year-over-year, with the median sales price also falling by 2.7% annually.

🤖 Atoms becomes a unicorn: The physical AI and robotics startup founded by Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick raised a round at a $1.7 billion valuation, with funding coming from Uber, a16z, and others.

This week: Nearly one-third of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week, including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; Consumer confidence index released.

Wednesday: The Fed releases its interest rate decision, with the market currently pricing in a 35% chance of a rate hike.

Thursday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, will be released; Jersey Mike’s is expected to go public with an $8 billion valuation.

Wednesday - Sunday: The 46th National Sports Collectors Convention will be held in Rosemont, IL, the biggest event of the year in the collectibles world.

*as of 7/23; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

Europe’s most valuable private company, fintech Revolut, saw its valuation jump more than 50% — from $75 billion to $115 billion — in a recent secondary sale, which exceeded initial expectations. Meanwhile, the leading European AI company Mistral AI is reportedly receiving €1 billion from Samsung at a €20 billion valuation, nearly doubling its last valuation of €12 billion.

➨ TAKEAWAY: These megarounds continue a pattern in both Europe and the rest of the world, with more concentrated bets on fewer companies. European startups are on track to raise 27% more than last year, but with deal count on pace to drop. More than 60% of all capital raised is going to AI companies, and while Revolut is an outlier, it was a share sale and not a fundraise.

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🏡 Housing climate risk: Nearly a quarter of of U.S. homes representing more than $11 trillion in value face severe climate risk from flood, fires, and wind. The exposure leads to higher insurance premiums, higher HOA fees, and higher levels of mortgage delinquencies. Despite this, in many areas, buyers are still choosing homes in high-risk areas, particularly in California.

💵 Zombie funds: A record $348.5 billion worth of assets are now trapped in private equity "zombie funds” - those that no longer raise money or make new acquisitions. Firms are still struggling to sell off portfolio holdings from these funds that are well past their intended lifespans, leading to liquidity issues across the industry.

🪙 Robinhood overtakes Base: Only three weeks after its launch, Robinhood’s new Chain has overtaken Coinbase’s L2 Base in daily active user count, with nearly $600 million in total value locked, mostly driven by memecoin trading.

🏢 REIT fundraising rising: U.S. REITs surpassed $20 billion in debt and equity funding in Q2, a gain of $2.7 billion from Q1, as investor demand steadily grows. One big change is the overall shift from debt to equity, as only 48% of the capital raised so far in 2026 has come from debt, compared to 73% in the first half of 2025.

🚀 Emerging market climate tech: As the developing world searches for more efficient electricity and cleaner energy, climate tech funding reached a record $1.9 billion in emerging markets such as India in 2025, with 2026 on pace to top that mark.

🏀 Big Goodwill find: An Oregon teen bought a vintage Lakers jacket for $3 at Goodwill, and it turned out to be one that had been worn by Wilt Chamberlain. It later sold at auction for more than $90,000, showing that there are still hidden gems out there waiting to be found.

Monday: 🤖 Kimi K3 Model, 🚀 Disappointing IPOs
Tuesday: 🏡 Construction data, 🏀 Fanatics Fest
Wednesday: 🚀 VC trends, 🏢 Cap rates steady
Thursday: 💵 New Goldman platform, 🚀 Biotech IPOs outperform

Have a great weekend!

*as of 7/22; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs created a new alternative investments platform for high-net-worth clients and family offices to acquire direct stakes in private companies. The platform is focusing on single-asset deals and secondary market trading, expanding upon its existing efforts to arrange direct private investments for its clients. Goldman is reportedly focusing on late-stage startups, particularly in the AI sector, both with model developers and infrastructure companies.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Goldman’s move is just another sign that the public and private markets are slowly merging together and that investor demand for private deals keeps growing. While this move is not directed at retail investors, other powerhouses such as Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab bought retail-focused platforms EquityZen and Forge Global, respectively, earlier this year. Slowly, but surely, access to the Pre-IPO sector is opening up.

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The Space Economy Stops at Launch. Orbit2Orbit Doesn’t.

Billions go into getting payloads off the ground. Almost nothing exists to move them once they’re up there. Orbit2Orbit is building that layer: autonomous cargo vehicles that deploy, service, and transport payloads between orbital platforms. This isn’t a concept company. First mission flown, flight heritage achieved, manufacturing facility operational, commercial customers signed, and a qualified pipeline exceeding $10 million. A financing round is now open, with details available to interested investors. View the investor deck at orbit2orbit.space/investors or reach out at investors@orbit2orbit.space.

LEARN MORE

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund about the rapidly evolving field of quantum computing, its current state, future potential, and investment opportunities.

🚀 Biotech IPOs beating AI: While AI is getting all the headlines, biotech IPOs have averaged gains of 55% so far in 2026, far outpacing the 4.4% average return for all IPOs. It is also worth noting that the 10 biggest IPOs of the year have averaged a 6.3% loss. There are an additional six biotech companies that have filed for IPOs and could go public in the next month, led by Scribe Therapeutics.

🏡 Home prices tick up: Redfin’s Home Price Index, which is based on repeat sales, showed a 0.3% monthly gain for U.S. home prices, and a 3% increase year-over-year. The price growth was largely fueled by luxury home prices, which are increasing three times faster than the rest of the market.

🪙 Movement Labs bankruptcy: The blockchain developer filed for Chapter 11 after the price of its token fell 94% in the past year and 98% since its debut. The market cap of the token was once above $3 billion and is now effectively worthless, another example of extreme crypto volatility.

🤖 OpenAI models hack: In somewhat disturbing news, a combination of OpenAI models, including an unreleased one, escaped an isolated sandbox environment, connected to the internet, and hacked into developer platform Hugging Face. The model was attempting to cheat on an evaluation, which it did successfully, but if its aims were more nefarious, the end result could have been worse.

⚡ Data center growth: U.S. data centers are now forecast to quadruple their total electricity consumption over the next ten years, which would position them to account for twenty percent of the nation’s total electricity usage by 20. Nearly half of the energy expenditure will be devoted to AI, and the industry’s rapid growth is making cheap electricity generation a must-have going forward.

🎨 Gehry desk sale: A sixteen piece, seven ton glass desk nicknamed “Icehenge” created by architect Frank Gehry sold for $243,200, above expectations and a new record for any of his design objects sold at auction.

No more pencils, no more books, no more teachers, but there may be some dirty looks when you mention the cost of Alpha School, an AI-powered private school with no teachers and a $40,000 yearly price tag. Its reliance on AI is new, but the lack of teachers is not, as students formerly learned from online platforms. Now, students spend only two hours a day learning from Alpha’s AI-powered platform, with afternoons committed to workshops and projects, which are run by “guides” who sound an awful lot like teachers. Alpha opened its first school in 2014 in Austin, and is expanding its footprint to six states and forty schools by the end of the year. It is obviously very controversial, with prominent backers and detractors, and AI replacing teachers does start to sound a bit dystopian, though don’t be surprised if the trend continues.

*as of 7/21; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Global venture funding topped $200 billion for the second quarter in a row, with the first half of the year breaking the all-time record for any six month stretch. However, deal count collapsed to slightly more than 7,000 transactions, the lowest for any quarter in more than a decade, as mega-rounds ($100M+) were responsible for more than 81% of all deployed capital. In fact, OpenAI’s $122 billion round and Anthropic’s $95 billion across two raises makes up more than half of all venture funding so far in 2026, highlighting just how concentrated VC has become.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The record-breaking numbers are essentially an illusion, and do not reflect the overall health of the VC industry. The majority of venture dollars flowing to two companies and one sector has left earlier stage startups to compete over a shrinking part of the overall pie. For investors, this could lead to more favorable deals as companies search for capital at less favorable terms or existing shareholders look to exit on secondary markets.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin is joined by Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund to explore the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market, focusing on Fluidstack and other key companies alongside technological trends and investment opportunities. They discuss the energy demands of AI, the business models of neoclouds, and the risks and rewards of investing in this dynamic space.

🏡 Starter home market update: The price of a typical “starter home” - defined as those priced at 80% of the area’s median price - has jumped from $256,000 to $344,000 since 2019. However, the number of affordable homes is growing nationwide but remain below pre-pandemic levels, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.

🏡 Boomers still want big houses: Meanwhile, on the other end of the housing spectrum, Baby Boomers are increasingly buying even larger homes rather than downsizing, making it more difficult for younger generations to buy. Boomers still make up the largest share of home buyers in the U.S., and own the most homes with three bedrooms or more.

🏢 Cap rates staying steady: While most commercial real estate sectors saw cap rates stay flat in Q1, both senior housing and retail strip malls saw significant cap rate compression, boosting property values as investor demand continues to grow. There were regional differences as well, with the Bay Area seeing cap rate compression across multiple sectors, while Seattle and Boston saw slight increases.

💵 New private credit benchmarks: Private market data company Allvue Systems launched a set of private credit benchmarks designed to bring some transparency to the notoriously opaque market. The platform aims to help fund managers and investors to better compare risk and returns between the market average and their own potential deals.

🤖 Bessent threatens sanctions: The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that the administration is considering targeted sanctions against Chinese AI companies that are being accused of stealing IP from U.S. companies. This warning comes as Chinese startups DeepSeek and Moonshot AI are releasing models that compare to and sometimes outperform those coming from OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and others.

🥃 Most expensive whiskeys: The list of the highest-priced bottles of whiskey ever sold at auction is led by Macallan 60 year-old scotches, which take up the top six slots and eight of the top ten. Other notables are 50+ year-old Japanese whiskeys from the Karuizawa and Yamazaki distilleries.

It’s not often that a coin in the top-100 by market cap falls by nearly 90% in one day, but the price of DEXE dropped from nearly $50 at the start of Tuesday to less than $5 by the end. Its price had steadily been increasing since it was at $10 in May, though it had been sitting around $2 in February. DEXE is the native token of a decentralized infrastructure protocol that lets web3 communities build, manage, and govern Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs). It’s not entirely clear why it crashed so hard, outside of possible market manipulation, though it is also not clear why it had gone up over 2000% in the past five months. It is a good reminder that even for tokens with billion-dollar market caps, the rug can be pulled out at any moment.

*as of 7/20; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

U.S. single-family housing starts fell 0.2% in June and were down 3.2% year-over-year, while single-family building permits fell 2.4% monthly and are down 0.2% year-over-year. Conversely, multifamily starts grew by a whopping 76.3% in June and are up 19.3% year-over-year, while multifamily permits fell by 4.9% monthly and 3.0% annually. Forecasters have reduced construction expectations as mortgage rates remain elevated and home prices have mostly flattened out.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The decline in building permits signals a cooling pipeline ahead, even as the amount of multifamily projects under construction has grown. Long-term inventory, particularly for single-family housing, will remain tight, which should boost prices in the long run, particularly if and when rates go down and demand comes back. Investors should monitor construction data in their target markets, as an oversupply in apartments can lead to falling rents and competition for high-quality tenants.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin is joined by Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund to explore the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market, focusing on Fluidstack and other key companies alongside technological trends and investment opportunities. They discuss the energy demands of AI, the business models of neoclouds, and the risks and rewards of investing in this dynamic space.

🏀 Fanatics Fest: The annual collectibles convention drew an estimated 200,000 attendees, nearly double last year’s total of 125,000, with appearances from legendary athletes such as Tom Brady, LeBron James, Lionel Messi, and Novak Djokovic as well as a host of celebrities. The success of the event reflects the growing popularity of sports cards and memorabilia and how intertwined with culture collecting has become.

🏢 Retail deal volume rises: U.S. retail real estate transaction volume climbed 5% year-over-year in Q1, with limited new construction and near-record low vacancy rates drawing in investors. Retail now accounts for 14% of all real estate volume, the highest proportion in a decade, with institutional investors making up a quarter of that activity.

🚀 Valar Atomics fundraise: The nuclear energy startup is reportedly raising a $1 billion funding round at a valuation of $6 billion, triple its most recent valuation. The company is building smaller modular nuclear reactors designed to be cheaper than traditional nuclear power, which could be crucial in the AI-influenced search for cheaper sources of power.

🤖 Fireworks AI’s valuation quadruples: The AI cloud startup raised a $1.5 billion round at a $17.5 billion valuation, more than quadruple its $4 billion value from last Octobe, and nearly 30 times greater than its $552 million valuation two years ago. The company has now exceeded $1 billion in annualized revenue.

🥤 Beckham’s $1 billion raise: Former soccer star David Beckham’s health drink startup IM8 hauled in $1 billion from the VC firm General Catalyst’s Customer Value Fund. The funds are essentially a loan, as General Catalyst is not taking an ownership stake in the company, but gets the funds paid back as well as a percentage of the company’s revenue.

🧥 Jensen Huang’s jacket: A trademark leather jacket worn by the Nvidia CEO sold for $960,000, smashing the pre-sale high estimate of $60,000, showing the cult of personality that has developed around prominent tech CEOs.

(Sotheby’s Realty)

Windfall Farms, the former estate of the late, longtime Jeopardy! host Alex Trebek is on the market, with an auction scheduled for August 5 if no one meets the current $33 million asking price. The 724-acre property located near Paso Robles in central California currently operates as a horse training and boarding facility alongside nearly 400 acres of working vineyards. The main house is 3,900 square feet with eight bedrooms and twelve bathrooms, and there are four barns and a full racetrack. The property currently hosts private events, corporate outings, and weddings, but there are 76 approved buildable lots if a potential buyer wants to develop the land into a residential community. Assuming it does not sell before the auction, there is no minimum bid and no reserve.

*as of 7/19, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The Beijing-based AI startup Moonshot made waves late last week when released its new model Kimi K3, which outperforms most major American AI models at a lower cost. Kimi is only bested by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol, but those are double or triple the cost for consumers, and Kimi is apparently ahead of both in certain coding and agentic metrics. The news of a cheaper Chinese AI model concerned markets, which saw declines on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling 1.5%.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Moonshot raised $2 billion at a $20 billion valuation in May, and is reportedly planning a Hong Kong IPO in the next six months, a quick rise for a company valued at around $4 billion at the end of 2025. Fellow Chinese AI disruptor DeepSeek is now valued around $52 billion, and is reportedly looking for a new raise at a valuation of more than $70 billion. Considering that both OpenAI and Anthropic are aiming for trillion-dollar valuations, those numbers seem like relative bargains, particularly if they can truly deliver the same results at cheaper prices. The competition is a worry for major U.S. AI startups and investors need to pay close attention.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Percent CEO Prath Reddy about the private credit market, investment strategies, and the U.S.'s economic outlook.

🚀 Disappointing IPOs: The data center operator Csquare went public, raising $1.05 billion at a $3.3 billion valuation, below the $4.2 billion valuation it had been targeting, pricing its shares around 20% lower than expected. Its shares traded flat in the first two days of trading, as the market clearly was not enthusiastic about the IPO. Meanwhile, the nuclear energy startup Standard Nuclear priced its shares at $15, below its initial range of $18-$21, and even after cutting its price saw its shares drop by 30% by week’s end.

🚀 Switch’s potential IPO: Meanwhile, another data center operator is reportedly exploring its own public offering that could raise $10 billion at a valuation that could reach $80 billion. The company has reportedly been seeking a private fundraising round at a valuation of $40 billion in advance of a possible IPO.

🤖 Databricks funding round: The AI analytics startup raised $3 billion at a $188 billion valuation, more than 40% higher than its last round from earlier this year, and a step up from the $175 billion valuation it had originally targeted in this round.

🏢 Industrial vacancy stabilizing: The overall national industrial vacancy rate declined in Q2, with 63% of all markets also seeing vacancies decline or flatten in the past year. Net absorption, which measures the amount of square footage leased versus the amount vacated, was up 17% quarterly and was more than double the net absorption from last year.

🪙 E*Trade crypto trading: The Morgan Stanley-owned trading platform is now allowing eligible retail customers to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana via a partnership with Zero Hash, a digital asset infrastructure company.

🎰 World Cup buoys prediction markets: Thanks in large part to the global interest in betting on the World Cup, prediction markets topped $50 billion in trading volume in June, a 75% monthly increase. With yesterday’s World Cup Final alone generating more than $5 billion in volume, it is likely that July will see even higher trading volumes.

This week: Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, Intel, and others will report their quarterly earnings.

Thursday: Fanatics Collect July Premier auction, featuring a potential 7-figure signed Jackie Robinson card, and one of the most desirable Pelé rookie cards in existence.

Friday: New home sales report released; the 10% global tariff on U.S. imports will expire unless extended.

Sunday: The Tour de France ends in Paris.

*as of 7/16; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

Trading volume for Pre-IPO secondaries is expected to reach a record high of more than $250 billion in 2026, and like in VC funding, much of that is being concentrated in the AI sector and on a handful of companies. AI remains most popular, followed by Aerospace, Space Travel, and IT. More than half of all transactions went to companies valued at $20 billion or more, with 75.7% of transactions going to companies that have been around 10 years or longer. The average transaction on EquityZen closed at a 38% discount to the company’s last funding round, a significant change from the 8% average discount in Q1. However, most AI transactions closed at a premium, while every transaction in Fintech, Healthcare, and Media closed at a discount.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The private secondary market has become a major source of liquidity for investors and employees, and savvy investors are snapping up discounted stakes. Many of these are still valuable, late-stage companies that have chosen to stay private longer, leaving prior investors desperate for liquidity. If possible, investors should diversify their Pre-IPO portfolios by including both highly desirable late-stage AI companies and startups in other sectors that are trading at steep discounts.

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Templum Capital provides eligible accredited investors with access to private company investments.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin is joined by Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund to explore the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market, focusing on Fluidstack and other key companies alongside technological trends and investment opportunities. They discuss the energy demands of AI, the business models of neoclouds, and the risks and rewards of investing in this dynamic space.

🎬 Lightsaber auction: The original, screen-used lightsaber from “The Empire Strikes Back” sold for $3.75 million at Heritage Auctions, nearly doubling pre-sale estimates and becoming the most expensive Star Wars prop ever sold. The lightsaber was used by Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) during the climactic duel with Darth Vader, one of the most famous movie scenes in history.

🚀 Helsing fundraise: The German defense tech startup raised a massive $1.8 billion round at a $18 billion valuation, up from its $14 billion valuation last year and triple its $5.4 billion valuation from two years ago. It is the latest massive fundraise by a defense tech startup this year as the sector remains one of the hottest in the Pre-IPO world.

🏢 Multifamily rents flattening: U.S. advertised apartment rents rose 0.7% in Q2 and are up just 1% this year, with vacancy rates creeping higher, particularly in Sun Belt metros that saw historically high rates of apartment completion. The cities with the highest annual rent growth were New York, San Francisco, and Chicago, while the cities with the highest declines were Austin, Denver, and Phoenix.

🪙 Crypto.com valuation: Citadel Securities made a $400 million investment into Crypto.com at a valuation of $20 billion, which marked the crypto exchange’s first ever institutional funding round.

🏡 College towns stay hot: Home prices in college towns such as Morgantown, WV, Syracuse, NY and Tuscaloosa, AL are rising five times faster than the national average, driven by steady demand from students and buyers searching for affordable cultural hubs.

🎨 Christie’s sales up: The auction house reported $4.5 billion in sales during the first of the year, with sales rising 71% year-over-year. This rise follows similar sales increases at Sotheby’s and Heritage Auctions, as the art and collectibles markets continue to have a strong 2026.

Monday: 🤖 AI chip fundraises, 🏢 Construction costs climb
Tuesday: 📊 Rally pivot, 🚀 AI dominating VC
Wednesday: 🦖 T-Rex sale, 📊 CPI reports
Thursday: 🚀 Sector update, 🏡 Strongest buyer’s markets

Have a great weekend!