*as of 4/12, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation rose by a whopping 0.9% in March and was up 3.3% annually, the highest reading in two years. The increase was driven almost entirely by the Iran war and its effects on gas prices, which rose a record 21.2% last month. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, was up only 0.2% in March and 2.6% annually. Public markets reacted negatively to the report, ending a positive week on a negative note.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It is clear that the war in Iran has had a significantly negative effect on the world economy, and the longer it lasts, the longer the recovery is likely to take. Last night, President Trump’s announcement that peace talks have stalled sent oil futures rising and stock market futures downward. As long as the war keeps going, inflation is likely to keep rising, reducing any chances of a Fed rate cut this year, and putting rate hikes back in play.

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🏢 Retail construction slowdown: There was only 64.2 million square feet of retail construction in progress in Q1, a 8% decline from 2025, and 30% below the 10-year average pace.

🚀 HawkEye 360 IPO: The satellite surveillance startup filed for a public offering, which will be a good bellwether for the public market’s appetite for space companies prior to the anticipated SpaceX IPO. Hawkeye had its revenue jump 75% in 2025 and posted positive net income and adjusted EBITDA numbers last year.

🏀 Steph Curry sneaker auction: Starting today, Sotheby’s is selling more than 70 pairs of game-worn Steph Curry sneakers from this season, when Curry became a sneaker “free agent” with a new pair from a different partner being worn every game.

🏡 New listings fall: While new listings fell 10% year-over-year, active inventory remained up 3.9% in the same time period as sales and buying demand continue to fall. This listing growth also led the median listing price to drop by 2.1% annually.

🤖 Firmus fundraise: The Australian AI infrastructure startup raised $505 million at a $5.5 billion valuation, more than triple its $1.8 billion number from last September. The Nvidia-backed data center builder is prepping for an IPO later this year.

🎬 Jerry Weintraub auction: Next month, Julien’s is partnering with the producer of the “Ocean’s Eleven” franchise for an auction of more than 800 items of movie and sports memorabilia from his personal collection.

This week: A number of big Wall Street banks will report their quarterly earnings, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Case, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley; the IMF and World Bank hold their spring meetings in Washington, D.C.

Today: Existing home sales report released.

Tuesday: March’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI inflation reports released.

Wednesday: Tax Day - the deadline for U.S. taxpayers to file their income taxes or file for an extension; homebuilder confidence index released; Christie’s 20th/21st Century Art evening sale in Paris.

Thursday: Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary Art evening sale in Paris, led by two Monet paintings.

Friday: Housing starts and building permits reports released.

*as of 4/9; Sources: S&P, BTC, GOLD, DJRE, 30YM

Bitcoin
Current Price:

• I still own a lot of Bitcoin

• We are heading towards the second half of the halving cycle, and usually when you get to October, you start to see a rise in price

• This is a cyclical downturn that is very consistent with what has happened in every other four year cycle, and I think we hit our intracycle low of $60,000

• I think that this is an asymmetric trade, because it will either be flat or it will shoot up past $100,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio.

Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump’s Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee in 2016 before serving briefly as White House Communications Director.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Skybridge’s Anthony Scaramucci about the current macroeconomic environment, investment strategies, and specific stock and crypto picks.

📊 PCE inflation reports: The personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.4% in February and 2.8% annually, in line with expectations. The core reading, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.4% monthly and 3% annually. Importantly, this data preceded the war in Iran, so today’s release of the consumer price index (CPI) reports will give a more updated look at inflation.

🤖 Anthropic’s new model: The AI startup’s new powerful Claude Mythos model is only being released to major technology firms such as Microsoft and Apple, as it is currently too dangerous to be released to the public. That warning is a bit concerning, and a number of cybersecurity companies saw their stock prices plummet in response.

🏢 CRE prices rising: The Green Street Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) rose 0.4% in March and is up 2.6% annually. The top sector last month was mobile home parks, which saw a 2% increase, and self-storage was the worst performing sector with a 1.7% decline.

🪙 Strategy driving crypto inflows: Total crypto inflows were just $11 billion in Q1, roughly one third of what they were in the same period last year, with the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy making up more than half, contributing $6.3 billion in purchases.

🏡 Price cuts at record rate: A record-high 34.2% of home sellers reduced their listing price in February, up from 31.5% a year ago. Overall, the average home that sold did so at 2.4% below the original listing price.

🗼 Eiffel Tower auction: A 9-foot high original piece of a staircase that was once part of French monument before being replaced by an elevator is being auctioned off next month, and should fetch well into the six figures. A 2016 sale of a similar section of staircase had a hammer price of $611,000.

Tuesday: 💵 Private credit struggles, 🏢 Apartment construction decline
Wednesday: 🤖 Anthropic’s epic run, ❗ Iran ceasefire
Thursday: 🚀 Big IPOs on tap, 🏢 Manhattan office comeback

Have a great weekend!

*as of 4/8; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Three of the most anticipated companies in history are converging on the public markets at the same time, and for early investors, the opportunity is unlike anything we've seen in a generation. SpaceX filed confidentially for a June IPO targeting a valuation above $2 trillion, with Musk pitching the dream and Starlink's explosive subscriber and revenue growth as the financial engine. OpenAI, which acquired tech talk show TBPN in its first media deal to sharpen its public voice, is pushing ahead with its own listing plans even as Musk wages a legal campaign to remove Sam Altman and Greg Brockman from OpenAI's nonprofit board, a move that could complicate the offering's structure and timeline. The New Yorker this week published a sweeping Altman profile that captures the unease at the center of all of this: one of these companies will shape the next era of the economy, and whether we can trust the people running them matters enormously. Anthropic, whose record-setting momentum we covered yesterday, is the third piece of this puzzle.

If all three list this year, the roughly $125 billion in combined capital raised would exceed the total hauled in by all U.S. VC-backed IPOs over the last decade. That's the scale of what's coming. With the Iran war showing signs of cooling and markets rallying on ceasefire hopes, the macro backdrop may finally be cooperating. It’s about to get very interesting.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Investors piling into private markets right now are largely playing for the IPO pop. That's a reasonable bet, but keep in mind that the inflows required to sustain $2 trillion valuations are truly unprecedented. It's possible that the expansiveness of space and AI means these companies can grow far beyond anything that came before. If you’re evaluating how to play it, Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) is a publicly traded closed-end fund that holds SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic and trades on NYSE today. Forge Global and EquityZen offer secondary shares for accredited investors. Fundrise's Innovation Fund (VCX) holds Anthropic. We're hosting a webinar next Wednesday on how to access pre-IPO companies via liquid structures which is worth a look if this space interests you.

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🏢 Manhattan’s offices are roaring back: So much for an NYC exodus — office leasing in Manhattan hit 11.8 million square feet in Q1 2026, the strongest first quarter since 2014, with AI tenants alone leasing more than 600,000 square feet. Average asking rents rose 4% to $77.55 per square foot, and availability dropped to a two-year low.

₿ MSSB joins the ETF party: Another major brokerage brought BTC to its clients as a standard product as Morgan Stanley’s MSSB debuted Wednesday with strong first-day inflows. Crypto rallied on ceasefire optimism with BTC touching $72,000 intraday, its highest level since January.

💼 FOs go direct: Ultra-wealthy family offices are bypassing VC funds to invest directly in AI startups, cutting out fees and fund structures entirely. This is yet another signal that the AI opportunity feels too concentrated and too urgent to outsource.

📉 Moody's goes negative on private credit BDCs: The ratings agency officially revised its outlook on business development companies to negative, piling on to a growing stack of concerning signals for the sector like redemption gates and record outflows.

📊 Schwab’s allocation guidance: New Schwab research argues the question isn't how much return crypto will generate but how much volatility you can tolerate, suggesting that a 1-3% position can account for a disproportionate share of your total portfolio risk.

🏢 Senior housing in demand: Senior housing cap rates are tightening nationally, dropping to 6.2% as demand from aging baby boomers collides with a near-total construction halt.

While AI chatbots and creative tools tend to get most of the media attention devoted to the sector, AI is being used widely across industries in many ways most people may not expect. For example, researchers at the University of Nevada-Reno are turning to AI and robotics in the hopes of improving methods to raise sheep in difficult conditions. A mobile water system will be equipped with an AI model that will digitally identify each sheep to track their movements and health. This could turn into big business if successful - last month, a AI-powered cow collar company raised $220 million at a $2 billion valuation. Halter, based in New Zealand, is using AI technology to create virtual fencing for cows, allowing ranchers to track their animals’ movements. The company is also aiming to expand into health monitoring, as well. Investors should continue to expand their own definitions of what an AI startup means, because there are opportunities out there beyond the obvious.

*as of 4/7; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Anthropic — maker of Claude AI — moved into top position in the AI race as it reported $30 billion in annualized revenue, up 58% since the end of February and more than triple its year-end 2025 run rate. With this momentum, the startup surpassed OpenAI's $25 billion February figure to become the fastest-growing AI company on the planet. It also signed a 3.5 gigawatt compute deal with Broadcom and Google for TPUs, one of the industry’s top compute commitments so far. The company is expanding via acquisition too, including a purchase of biotech startup Coefficient which sets it up to compete in more verticals. And it’s rumored to be in talks to raise $800 million for a $1 billion PE consulting joint venture with General Atlantic and others to sell Claude capacity as a management consultant to private equity firms.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Anthropic isn't just a competitor to OpenAI anymore — it's cementing its own central position in the white-hot AI ecosystem and seems poised to add onto its $64 billion in financings to date. Private markets have taken note, and its stock is showing endless demand from investors, hitting the top spot on most private exchange leaderboards. Even its dispute with the “Department of War” hasn’t dimmed the energy around the business. Investors can still get exposure if they can find it from trusted counterparties at palatable prices, but the current dynamic makes it more competitive each day.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Skybridge’s Anthony Scaramucci about the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment and his investment strategies and picks.

🛢️ Good news from Hormuz: Last night’s ceasefire immediately boosted bullishness and dropped oil prices. Research firm Citrini had previously sent an analyst to the Straits and found traffic more open than media coverage suggested, which already hinted at prices partially unwinding. Whatever the cause, less pressure on oil and potential for lasting peace could provide tailwinds to markets.

₿ Strategy's $14.5B loss doesn’t shake its conviction: MicroStrategy — aka Strategy — posted a massive Q1 unrealized loss as Bitcoin slid, then immediately bought $330 million more BTC, boosting holdings past 500,000 coins. The company is the clearest real-time proxy for the institutional digital asset thesis — when it doubles down at the lows, it signals where true believers stand.

🏡 Best first-time buyer cities: Zillow puts Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Detroit at the top of the first-time buyer list with each boasting prices under $200K median, manageable price-to-income ratios and strong rental demand where almost no new apartments are being built.

💰 America’s growing upper middle class: WSJ data shows upward mobility accelerating, with the professional class growing faster than at any point in the last decade. More people with $250K-$2M to invest means a larger audience looking for alternative assets.

📉 PE buyouts at a multi-year low: LBO activity slumped in Q1 as AI disruption uncertainty and war volatility froze dealmakers. Investors should be mindful that PE funds pitching today are operating in a tougher environment than their historical track records reflect.

🎨 A $110M Basquiat in Miami: The most expensive painting ever sold by an American artist — Jean-Michel Basquiat's "Untitled" (1981) — goes on its debut public view at the Pérez Art Museum Miami starting June 25, on loan from Ken Griffin's collection. The showing coincides with Miami hosting seven FIFA World Cup matches.

(Picture Perfect)

How much do you think a 0-bedroom tiny house in Long Island will run you? If you guessed $329,900, congratulations. The 446 square foot “house” does have a small kitchen, dining room, living room, and full bathroom, and a basement that can be converted into a laundry room with a half bathroom. Located in Selden, almost exactly halfway between New York City and the Hamptons, the property is on a 2200 square foot lot with a backyard shed, so there is a fair amount of space, just no official bedrooms.

*as of 4/6, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Warning lights are blinking for private credit, and experts are expressing concerns - with Michael Burry noting “it looks like the end of the road to me," Jamie Dimon's annual shareholder letter flagging a lack of "great transparency or rigorous valuation marks," joining others in warning that investors are likely to experience increased headwinds in the asset class. And investors are taking heed. Last week, Blue Owl investors tried to pull $5.4 billion from two non-traded funds in a single quarter — representing 22% of the firm’s $36 billion flagship and 41% of its tech-focused fund. Other firms including Apollo, Ares, BlackRock's HPS Lending, KKR's K-FIT, and Barings have all hit their 5% quarterly redemption caps this quarter too. The circuit breakers are holding for now — but the $2 trillion sector has never been tested like this.

➨ TAKEAWAY: If you reaped the gains on years of outperformance with non-traded BDCs, interval funds like those offered by Blue Owl, Blackstone BCRED and Ares, or their private alternatives, this may be time to take stock. Funds cap quarterly withdrawals at 5% by design, meaning in a stress scenario you could wait years to fully exit. That's not necessarily a reason to sell — in fact, today’s buyers may be getting in at favorable prices. But it is time to acknowledge just how illiquid these holdings can be, and ensure that it aligns with your time horizon. Secondary buyers are circling these funds, which may eventually create an exit path, but for now the demand seems muted, suggesting exits could come later and at bigger discounts.

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🏗️ Apartment construction in decline: There isn't a single unit under construction in 16 of the nation's 150 largest apartment markets, up from 10 a year ago and just 6 the year before. Honolulu has 8% rent growth with nothing in the pipeline, while markets like Youngstown, OH (99% occupancy) and Atlantic City, NJ (98%) are increasingly landlord-friendly, suggesting low supply is likely to persist.

⚖️ Kalshi can stay in sports: The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that federal commodity law preempts New Jersey's gambling statutes, blocking the state from shutting the prediction market provider down. The CFTC has backed Kalshi throughout in a meaningful win for prediction markets broadly — though Nevada went the other way, and a Ninth Circuit hearing is coming later this month.

💼 VC in Q1 stays concentrated: PitchBook's data shows funding concentration at historic highs — AI mega-rounds drove the headline numbers while seed and early-stage deal count fell - but terms are shifting in founders’ favor, with up-rounds accelerating and down-round pressure easing.

🏢 PE Fundraising at a decade-low: Global buyout, growth, and turnaround funds raised just $86 billion in Q1, a pace that would put 2026 well below last year's already weak $423 billion total. The culprit? Institutional LPs over-allocated to private markets with less room for new commitments. Mega-funds are still closing — KKR raised $23B for its flagship — but mid-market managers are starving.

🏦 Coinbase approved for a National Bank Trust Charter: The OCC granted Coinbase conditional approval to establish a federally regulated digital asset custodian, a landmark step toward bank-level regulatory standing for the largest U.S. crypto exchange that would unlock institutional custody business.

📊 March jobs report may not help the housing market: The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, bouncing back from February's revised -133,000. But payroll growth averaged just $68,000 per month in Q1, the labor force shrank by 396,000, and discouraged workers rose 144,000. Choppy, downward-revised job growth is exactly the kind of backdrop that keeps potential homebuyers on the sidelines — even when the headline number looks fine.

🎨 India’s record art sale: Raja Ravi Varma's "Yashoda and Krishna" sold at Saffronart in Mumbai on April 1, nearly doubling the high estimate and making it the most expensive Indian artwork ever sold at auction. It caps a blockbuster season for South Asian art — Sotheby's set records for 12 artists in a $22.1M New York sale last month, and Christie's posted its highest-ever South Asian total of $27M the following day.

Thursday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, will be released.

Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI inflation reports released; consumer sentiment report released.

Saturday: Goldin’s March Elite auction, featuring multiple six-figure Shohei Ohtani cards.

Sunday: The NBA regular season comes to a close, with the play-in tournament set to begin the following Tuesday.

Note: We will be off next Monday, April 6 for the Easter holiday and will return to your inboxes on Tuesday, April 7.

*as of 4/2; Sources: S&P, BTC, GOLD, DJRE, 30YM

Liquid Death
Last public valuation: $1.4 billion (March 2024)

• We just took a position in Liquid Death

• The company uses tech guerilla-like marketing, and has been a master class in branding

• Their products are everywhere - Whole Foods, CVS, supermarkets, drug stores

• They increased their revenues 110x between 2019-2024

• They just introduced iced tea, sparkling juices and sodas and are outpacing everyone else in the industry

• I predict they are going to get purchased, likely by Coke or Pepsi

• I think it’s going to be a home run investment

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio.

Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump’s Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee in 2016 before serving briefly as White House Communications Director.

In the latest episode of Smart Humans, Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund discussed Perplexity, the $20 billion AI search startup, and its origins, growth trajectory, market positioning, revenue streams, and competitive landscape.

🚀 Q1 sets venture record: Four of the five biggest venture rounds (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and Waymo) ever came in Q1, leading to a record-smashing $300 billion being raised overall, 80% of which came from the AI sector. But it’s not just the major late-stage startups benefiting, as early stage funding is up 41% year-over-year and seed funding is also up 31% year-over-year.

💵 Q1 sets M&A record: Global M&A activity hit $1.3 trillion in the first quarter, led by Sysco’s $29.1 billion acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot and McCormick’s $44.8 billion purchase of Unilever’s food business. However, deal values have fallen 15% year-over-year since the beginning of the Iran War, as that conflict interrupted the market’s momentum.

🦕 $5.5 million Triceratops: A 66 million year-old Triceratops skeleton nicknamed “Trey” sold for $5.5 million at Pharell Williams’ Joopiter auction house, hitting the high estimate, establishing Joopiter as a major player in the auction world.

📊 Retail sales increase: U.S. retail sales grew 0.6% in February, better than expected, but the data came largely before the Iran War, the effects of which are likely to lead to a decrease in spending.

🤖 AI leading to layoffs: 25% of all job cuts in March were due to AI, not only because AI is replacing jobs, but because companies are shifting spending towards AI and need to cut costs elsewhere. Overall, layoffs were up 25% from last month, but down significantly from last March.

🚘 Rare silver Ferrari: One of only nine silver 2004 Ferrari Enzos ever produced will be auctioned at Sotheby’s later this month, carrying an estimated price tag of $5.5 million - $6 million.

Monday: ❗Inflation fears, 📊 Consumer sentiment falls
Tuesday: 🎨 Hong Kong auctions, 🍷 All-time wine record
Wednesday: 🏡 Housing price growth, 🤖 OpenAI’s $122 billion round
Thursday: 🚀 Space data centers, 📊 Private job growth

Have a great weekend!

*as of 4/1; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Two startups this week raised big money to attempt to build data centers in space - Aetherflux, which is reportedly raising $250 million at a $2 billion valuation, and Starcloud, which raised $170 million at a $1.1 billion valuation. Aetherflux had previously been focused on generating solar power in space for use on Earth, but is pivoting towards space data centers. Starcloud reached unicorn status just 17 months after graduating from YCombinator. They join existing space companies SpaceX and Blue Origin in the race to find cheaper and more efficient ways to generate the power needed for the AI industry.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It was only recently that Elon Musk announced that SpaceX would be looking into building data centers in space, and now there are multiple startup unicorns doing the same. One potential blocker is that the companies need SpaceX’s Starship rocket to deliver their infrastructure to space, and it has not been reliably launching safely. It looks like 2028 or 2029 will be the soonest that data centers can start operating in space, but investors willing to take the risk can try to get in while valuations are relatively low.

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📊 Private job growth: The private sector added 62,00 jobs in March according to ADP’s most recent report, better than expected but slightly below February’s revised total. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees added 85,000 jobs, while medium and large businesses both saw declines.

🚀 Whoop’s valuation triples: The wearable fitness healthtech startup raised $575 million at a $10.1 billion valuation, nearly triple its last valuation of $3.6 billion from 2021. The round attracted investment from notable athletes such as LeBron James, Cristiano Ronaldo and Reggie Miller.

🪙 Quantum threat to Bitcoin: Google announced that its quantum computing technology is advancing faster than expected and could break Bitcoin as soon as 2029, adding urgency for cryptocurrencies to migrate their blockchains to post-quantum cryptography.

🤖 AI inference stays hot: The Korean startup chipmaker Rebellions became the latest AI inference company to raise a massive VC round, netting $400 million. Other notable raises this year have come from Cerebras, Etched, and MatX.

🏢 Hyperscale data center fund: The data center firm Digital Realty closed on a $3.25 billion fund to develop and own hyperscale data centers in top-tier metro areas including the Bay Area and Northern Virginia.

💵 Private credit on the blockchain: Valinor, a startup founded by former Blackstone employees, raised $25 million to put private credit on the blockchain, a step to potentially bring more liquidity to the asset class.

According to a new study, half of all U.S. adults under 30 have reported talking to an AI chatbot for relationship advice, and a third of teens have talked to AI instead of humans for “serious conversations.” However, the tendency of AI to flatter and validate users is leading them to give damaging advice in these situations, and this is leading to bad results. Sycophancy has significant risks, and can lead to a greater chance of self-harm and suicide. Unfortunately, AI chatbots are incentivized to tell users what they want to hear in order to increase engagement, meaning that companies have no incentive to change anything. One positive development is that OpenAI is no longer pursuing its “X-rated” version of ChatGPT after investors and employees voiced concerns. Eventually, though, either OpenAI or another company will pursue that market, and there are likely to be a host of negative consequences for users.

*as of 3/31; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index rose 0.2% in January, adjusted for the season, and is up 0.9% year-over-year, continuing the trend of decelerating annual home price growth. The best performing market was New York City with a 4.9% gain, and Tampa brought up the rear with a 2.5% decline. Meanwhile, the FHFA House Price Index for January showed a 0.1% monthly gain and a 1.6% annual one. The East North Central (Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) region of the country showed the most growth at 4.4% annually, while the West South Central (Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana) region had the biggest decline at 0.8% annually.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Inflation is now outpacing home appreciation by a significant margin, meaning that real price growth is negative for much of the country. January was also when mortgage rates started to fall close to 6%, and with rates back up due in large part to the Iran war, future reports could show even slower price growth. Regionally, Florida is still struggling, with the bottom three markets and 12 of the bottom 20, while the Midwest and Northeast are still holding up better than the rest of the country.

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In the latest episode of Smart Humans, Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund discussed Perplexity, the $20 billion AI search startup, and its origins, growth trajectory, market positioning, revenue streams, and competitive landscape.

🤖 Biggest VC round ever: OpenAI raised an astonishing $122 billion at a $852 billion valuation, shattering its own record for the biggest venture capital round ever, which had been $40 billion. Its valuation has nearly tripled in the last year and has gone up by more than 5x in the past 18 months. The company reported generating $2 billion of monthly revenue and 900 million weekly active users, and many expect it to go public later this year.

📊 Consumer confidence ticks up: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose from 91.0 to 91.8 in March, but the expectations index dropped from 72.6 to 70.9, indicating that consumers are pessimistic about the near future.

💵 Private credit secondaries: Distressed-debt funds, also known as “vulture” funds, are touting the recent private credit downturn as the best buying opportunity since 2008, and are stockpiling cash to take advantage.

🏢 Multifamily market stabilizing: Nearly 30% of metro areas have apartment occupancy rates of 95% or higher, as new supply diminishes and demand from renters continues to steadily grow.

🪙 FTX creditor payment: The defunct crypto exchange is paying out $2.2 billion to its creditors in its fourth round of payouts, which could impact the crypto market, albeit mildly. While the payouts are in USD and reflect the Bitcoin price from November 2022, when it was much lower in USD terms, some of the creditors could reinvest to restore some of their previous holdings.

⌚ Titanic pocket watch: An 18-carat gold Patek Phillippe pocket watch that belonged to John Jacob Astor IV, who wore it when he died in the sinking of the Titanic, will be auctioned off later this month.

Last week we talked about Worldcoin, the Sam Altman-founded crypto project that scans people’s eyeballs in exchange for tokens. Given the news of the OpenAI raise yesterday, Altman is not likely to be losing a lot of sleep over Worldcoin’s recent performance, but its token holders are. The crypto token’s price dropped 97% over the past two years and had the biggest decline of any major token two weeks ago. We warned that the specter of a major token unlock in July would likely only push prices down further, and once again, Worldcoin posted the biggest loss of the last week for any token in the top-60 by market cap. The foundation behind the project sold an additional $65 million worth of the coins this week, another bearish sign. The token hit an all-time low before rebounding slightly yesterday, but is still down 27.6% in the past month and 64.2% in the past year.

*as of 3/30; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Hong Kong’s art week culminated in last weekend’s major modern and contemporary art auctions, with sales by the three major auction houses bringing in nearly $165 million, above expectations and an 18% gain over last year’s totals. Both Christie’s and Sotheby’s achieved “white glove” sales, meaning every lot was sold. The Christie’s sale brought in $84 million, led by a $11.8 million sale of a Gerhard Richter painting. Sotheby’s totaled $70.3 million, highlight by the biggest sale of the weekend - $17.6 million for Joan Mitchell’s “La Grande Vallée VII.” Finally, Phillips brought in $11.3 million in sales, up 12% from last year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Last year, Hong Kong’s art market hit a ten-year low with $715 million in total sales, so the strong auction results were a welcome development. They capped off a largely successful week that also included a better-than-expected Art Basel Hong Kong. These results also continue a good start to 2026 for the art market, though it remains to be seen if the positive momentum will carry over to Paris’ Spring Art Week coming in mid-April and New York’s Spring Art Week to follow in mid-May.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orchard Global CEO Paul Horvath about investing in the U.S. v. Europe and current macroeconomic trends.

🍷 New wine record: A bottle of 1945 Domaine de la Romanée-Conti sold for $812,500, shattering the previous $558,000 record for the most expensive bottle of wine ever sold. The sale was part of a three-day Acker auction that grossed $25 million in total.

📉 VCX comes back down: After hitting a high of $575 per share last week, the publicly traded Fundrise Innovation Fund dropped another 36% yesterday and is at $101 per share including after-hours trading, still five times higher than its last reported net asset value.

🏢 Industrial rents up: Nationally, industrial sector asking rents are up 5.5% year-over-year, with Atlanta, Columbus, and Philadelphia seeing the highest growth rates. With construction activity dropping, expect rents to continue on this trajectory in the near-term.

💵 Powell on private credit: The Federal Reserve chair said yesterday that he does not believe that a downturn in the private credit markets will spread to the wider financial system, though the Fed is monitoring the situation closely.

🪙 Strategy keeps buying: The original digital asset treasury (DAT) is the only one still accumulating, as it has added 45,000 Bitcoin in the past thirty days, while all other DATs combined have added only 1,000. Strategy’s stock is down 12% in the past five days, and 62% in the past six months.

🤖 Physical Intelligence raise: The two year-old robotics startup is reportedly looking to raise $1 billion at a $11 billion valuation, nearly double its latest valuation of $5.6 billion just four months ago.

(Realtor.com)

For people who are looking for an isolated retreat, a tiny home on a small private island in Maine is on the market. Located in Waterboro, 40 minutes southwest of Portland, the 487-square-foot, 1-bedroom home is on a 3,920 square foot island and is accessible only by boat, or by snowmobile if the pond is frozen. The newly-renovated interior comes fully furnished, and could have a strong market as a vacation rental. The asking price is $685,000, for a fairly high price per square-foot for the home, though it’s less if you consider the price per square-foot for the entire island.

*as of 3/29, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

With the Iran War now four weeks old, and investors now skeptical that a conclusion is coming anytime soon, long-term economic concerns are starting to mount. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) now projects U.S. inflation to hit 4.2% in 2026, well up from its previous 2.8% projection and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. As a consequence, futures traders now expect the next interest rate move by the Fed to be a hike, not a cut, with a 52% chance of interest rates rising by the end of the year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: After starting the year with hopes of multiple rate cuts, it now seems that the best investors can hope for is for there to be no change. The CME FedWatch tool also sees a greater chance of a hike than a cut, though it still projects that rates will be 75 basis points lower by the end of 2027. While the long-term outlook has not diminished that much, the short-term outlook is less rosy, and markets are taking a hit, with stocks now down for five consecutive weeks, and the Nasdaq and Dow in official correction status. There is the potential for a significant “peace bump” if the war comes to an end, but when that happens is anyone’s guess.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund take an in-depth look at some of the hottest startups in one of the hottest sectors - defense tech. They discuss Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, and how the current geopolitical situation is affecting the ecosystem at large.

📊 Consumer sentiment falls: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped almost 6% in March, much more than expected, nearly reaching an all-time low. Consumers are worried about inflation and rising gas prices resulting from the war in Iran, as the survey’s short-term economic outlook metric fell 14%.

🏡 Top growth markets: While home prices have stagnated in many parts of the country, a number of metros in the Midwest and Northeast are still putting up strong numbers. Looking at job growth, housing affordability and rent growth, top markets include Columbus, OH, Indianapolis, IN, and Pittsburgh, PA.

🎬 $1 million C3PO head: Propstore’s weekend auction had a number of notable sales, headlined by the $1.06 million sale of the robot C3PO’s head from “The Empire Strikes Back.” For comedy fans, the “butt birth” mechanical rhino from “Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls” sold for nearly $60,000, more than seven times its high estimate.

🚀 Harvey’s new fundraise: The legal AI startup raised $200 million at a valuation of $11 billion, just months after its last raise at a valuation at $8 billion, as it has nearly doubled its annual recurring revenue in the past six months.

🤖 Anthropic wins ruling: A federal judge temporarily blocked the Pentagon from labeling the AI startup a “supply chain risk” after Anthropic disagreed with the government over the use of its AI models by the defense department. This ruling won’t force the Pentagon to use Anthropic, but it cannot ban other government agencies from doing so.

🪙 Crypto clears 401(k) step: The White House completed its regulatory review of a proposed labor department rule that could open the door to allowing crypto and other private market assets in 401(k) accounts.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; Consumer confidence index released.

Wednesday: Passover begins at sundown; ADP private jobs report, U.S. retail sales report released.

Friday: Good Friday; public markets are closed; March jobs report and unemployment rate released; Heritage’s Spring Sports Catalog auction, with dozens of cards, mostly vintage baseball, expected to exceed six figures.

Saturday: The NCAA basketball Final Four tips off in Indianapolis.

Sunday: Easter Sunday.

*as of 3/26; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

SAP (NYSE: SAP)
Current share price: $166.82 ($205.95 billion market cap)

• Its price has gotten crushed because investors are negative on software right now, so it’s trading at or below its Morningstar fair value estimates

• It has very predictable cash flow and it has consistent, steady revenue generators

• The cloud business has a big moat

• It’s heading towards generating a 10 billion euro free cash flow this year

• The average price target is around $340 per share

• It’s a cheap stock and it’s growing

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio.

Scaramucci served on President Donald J. Trump’s Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee in 2016 before serving briefly as White House Communications Director.

Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orchard Global CEO Paul Horvath about Europe v. the U.S. and current macroeconomic trends.

🏡 Mortgage rates climbing: The Freddie Mac average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 16 basis points to 6.38%, the largest one-week increase since last April. It has now risen 40 basis points in the last month, when it dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022. The war in Iran is largely to blame for the reversal, and the longer it drags on, the longer rates could remain elevated.

🏢 Blackstone’s $10 billion deal: The asset management giant is reportedly acquiring data center provider Rowan Digital Infrastructure in a $10 billion deal, as it continues to commit capital to AI infrastructure bets.

🪙 Crypto-backed mortgages: Fannie Mae will start accepting crypto-backed mortgages for the first time, allowing homebuyers to hold their crypto rather than sell it for cash. Both the mortgage company Better Home & Finance and crypto exchange Coinbase will offer the Fannie Mae-approved mortgages.

🚀 X-Energy files for IPO: The nuclear energy startup filed a draft registration statement with the SEC, and intends to go public on the Nasdaq with the ticker XE. No details have been released yet, but the company raised $700 million last November at an undisclosed valuation.

💵 Ares private credit loss: In addition to limiting investor withdrawals, the Ares Strategic Income Fund posted its largest monthly loss on record, dropping 0.68% in February as the downturn in private credit continues.

🤖 Reflection AI fundraise: The Nvidia-backed AI startup is now reportedly raising $2.5 billion at a $25 billion pre-money valuation, up from the $20 billion mark it had been targeting earlier this month and more than triple its last valuation of $8 billion.

Monday: ❗Iran war market downturn, 🚀 Defense tech IPO prospects
Tuesday: 🚀 VCX keeps pumping, 💵 BCRED posts loss
Wednesday: 🎰 Prediction market headwinds, 🪙 Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF
Thursday: 💵 Private credit woes, 🚀 SpaceX IPO incoming

Have a great weekend!

*as of 3/25; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The rocky 2026 for the private credit sector has continued, with yet another major fund limiting withdrawals and more bad news coming from new directions. Ares’ Strategic Income Fund only honored 43% of its redemption requests in Q1, following in the footsteps of other major asset managers such as Blue Owl, BlackRock and Apollo. Yesterday, the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded a KKR private credit fund to junk status, a worrying sign for other funds. Meanwhile, the SEC openly questioned whether a private credit ratings agency, Egan-Jones, can “consistently produce credit ratings with integrity.”

➨ TAKEAWAY: This has been a rapid change for the asset class, which had been a strong performer the past few years, attracting significant capital from institutional and retail investors. Sentiment is now falling, which could open up opportunities for discounted stakes on the secondary market, as funds and investors seek liquidity.

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Vincent's Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund take an in-depth look at some of the hottest startups in one of the hottest sectors - defense tech. They discuss Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, and how the current geopolitical situation is affecting the ecosystem at large.

🚀 SpaceX to file for IPO: The biggest IPO in history could be coming soon, as SpaceX is reportedly filing for its public offering as soon as this week. The company is looking to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and given pent-up investor demand, the first day of trading could be one for the record books.

📈 VCX just keeps pumping: Shares of the Fundrise Innovation Fund hit a new high of $575 before closing around $380, less than a week after it IPO’d at $31 per share. The price swings and volatility resemble a meme stock, as it trades well above its last reported net asset value (NAV) of $18.97.

🏡 Home prices flat: Redfin’s U.S. home price index only rose by 0.1% in February, the slowest pace in seven months, and was up 1.9% year-over-year. The biggest gains came in Charlotte, NC and Portland, OR, with the biggest losses coming in Jacksonville, FL, and Providence, RI.

🎰 Retail hurt on prediction markets: Because there are no limits on winning players like you might see at sportsbooks, the median return for retail traders on prediction markets is comparatively worse, at -8% compared to -5% at sportsbooks. This could pose a long-term problem for prediction markets if the customer base starts to get frustrated with losses and cuts down on activity.

🏢 Office conversions still growing: There are now more than 90,000 office-to-apartment rental units in development, a 28% increase year-over-year and almost four times the level from four years ago. Office conversion addresses both the office vacancy issue and the housing supply issue in one go, so it’s no surprise it is growing in popularity.

🎨 Art Basel Hong Kong: With Hong Kong Art Week underway, the first day at Art Basel Hong Kong saw a number of seven-figure sales, with the standout unsold piece being a Modigliani painting with a price tag of more than $13 million.

In a surprising move, OpenAI is shutting down its video tool Sora, only six months after releasing it to great fanfare, and only three months since it became available globally. One consequence of the wind-down decision is the termination of a potential $1 billion partnership with Disney, which was going to license its characters to the company. While other video generation tools cut in to Sora’s market share, the reality is that there is currently not much demand for AI video creation. Most of the output consists of blatant copyright violations, X-rated material, or misleading videos designed to go viral on social media. This move likely will not slow down the company’s valuation or future prospects, but it is a reminder to investors that many AI products will fail to find a market, and the exponential growth of AI in everyday life is bound to slow down at some point.

*as of 3/24; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The Senate introduced a bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on any platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which includes prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. This initiative follows Arizona’s move last week to bring criminal charges against Kalshi for allowing illegal gambling in the state. Investors and partners seem undeterred, as Kalshi just raised $1 billion while doubling its valuation, and Polymarket is reportedly about follow suit. Polymarket also just signed an exclusive partnership with Major League Baseball.

➨ TAKEAWAY: With their explosive growth trajectory, it was only a matter of time before prediction markets attracted legislators’ attention, especially with the bottom lines of casinos and traditional sportsbooks threatened. Potential investors in Kalshi and Polymarket should note that this legislation represents an existential threat to their business, as a significant amount of their action comes from sports contracts. However, the CFTC is claiming jurisdiction and will seemingly fight any Congressional oversight. With a friendly administration currently in power, expect the legal battles to drag on.

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💵 Apollo limits withdrawals: The asset manager’s $15 billion private credit fund received withdrawal requests totalling more than 11% of the entire fund, and is only redeeming 45% of that, sticking to its 5% quarterly cap. The fund is down 1.2% over the past three months.

🪙 Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF: The Wall Street bank is trying to become the first major bank to have its own crypto ETF, which will have the ticker MSBT if the SEC approves its application.

🏡 Record seller gap: There are now 46% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S, the largest gap since at least 2013 and up from 29% last year. For context, when there are 10% more sellers than buyers on the market, that’s enough to classify it as a buyer’s market, so the current situation is extremely tilted towards buyers.

🤖 AI-focused funds: Venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins announced a $3.5 billion fundraise for two separate AI-focused funds, one for early-stage companies and one for growth stage investments, as institutional interest in the sector shows no signs of slowing down.

🏢 Rent growth slowing: National multifamily rents rose 1.2% year-over-year In February, a slower pace than January. Virginia Beach, San Francisco, and Chicago showed the highest gains, while Florida and Texas markets continued to bring up the rear.

⚾ Six-figure Mantle sale: A $101,475 sale of a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle card headlined the most recent auction at Robert Edwards Auctions, setting a record for a card with its grade and continuing the positive momentum for vintage cards.

Remember Worldcoin? The Sam Altman-founded crypto project made headlines a few years back when it was scanning people’s eyeballs in exchange for tokens, leading to privacy and legal concerns worldwide. Once worth $9.50 per token two years ago, the price has slowly fallen, reaching its all-time low last week below $0.31 per token. The company still wants to create a way to use the blockchain to verify humans online to counter possible fraud by AI agents — a problem that coincidentally is partially the responsibility of its co-founder. The price plummeted in the last week as the team in charge of Worldcoin sold 117 million tokens ($38 million) in advance of a major token supply unlock in July. Unless the project gains traction quickly, that unlock is likely to only send prices falling further.

*as of 3/23; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

VCX, the newly public listing of Fundrise’s Innovation Fund, has shot up exponentially since its public debut last week, closing yesterday at $191.81 per share, a gain of 63%. The share price is now up more than 6X since it debuted at $31 per share, and after-hours trading has pushed it up even further to $247 per share. The fund’s net asset value (NAV) coming into the offering was $18.97, meaning that investors are clearly willing to pay a premium for exposure to in-demand Pre-IPO companies, such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Anduril.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The trajectory of the share price has put VCX into meme-stock territory, and the unique circumstances of the offering has a lot to do with it. Obviously there is heavy demand for shares of the top Pre-IPO companies, but the vast majority of VCX shares are locked up for 6 months, so the number of outstanding shares is small. This has limited access for public investors, causing the price to surge. In contrast, Robinhood’s RVI venture fund, which does not have as sought-after a portfolio and a much larger public float, is sitting right around its IPO price of $25 per share. Investors should note that another public venture fund, Destiny XYZ (NYSE: DXYZ) shot up way above its IPO price but has overall been trading flat in the past two years.

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A Guide to Investing in Industrial Real Estate

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Orchard Global CEO Paul Horvath about Europe v. the U.S. and current macroeconomic trends.

🏢 RE fundraising on the rise: After two years of declines, global private real estate fundraising rose 13% in 2025, though the top 10 real estate funds accounted for 40% of all capital raised. Sectors that accounted for the growth include data centers, single-family rentals, healthcare facilities, and logistics.

💵 BCRED posts loss: Blackstone’s flagship $83 billion private credit fund had its first monthly loss since 2022 and is flat so far in 2026, another worrying sign for the asset class.

⚾ Record Ohtani jersey: A jersey worn by Japanese baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani in the World Baseball Classic just sold for $1.5 million, shattering the old record of $250,000 for an Ohtani jersey and continuing the exponential growth trend for Ohtani memorabilia.

🏡 Home-flipping profits fall: With financing costs rising and buying demand falling, it’s hard out here for a house flipper, with the number of flips down by 4% and the lowest average ROI since 2008.

🪙 ETF inflows and outflows: Last week saw $230 million in net inflows for crypto-based ETFs, with Bitcoin leading the way, attracting $219 million in net inflows. Solana also saw positive inflows, but Ethereum had net outflows of $27.5 million, a negative turnaround from the week before despite BlackRock’s new staking ETF.

🤖 AI cow collars: Halter, a New Zealand-based startup that makes AI-powered smart collars for cows, is in talks for a new funding round that would double its valuation to $2 billion.

(Compass Florida)

The Historic Pineapple Apartments, a prominent commercial building in the Burns Square area of downtown Sarasota, FL, just hit the market for $8.5 million. The property has seven retail businesses on the first floor, while the top floor holds an 8-unit boutique hotel / vacation rental, as well as a 3,000 square foot owner’s suite. Located just two blocks from the water, the 13,700 square-foot building last changed hands in 1986, making this a rare opportunity.

*as of 3/22, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The ongoing war in Iran has brought markets to a halt, with uncertainty driving investors away and upsetting the global economy. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Friday and is down 6.8% from its peak, while the Dow and Nasdaq are both down more than 9% from their peaks, verging on correction territory. Equities are now at their lowest levels since last fall, erasing six months of gains. Gold had its worst week since 1983, dropping 14%, despite its reputation as a safe haven asset. Crypto also had a down week, dropping 7% overall. Bond yields are rising, which in turn are causing mortgage rates to rise, disrupting the real estate market.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The war is entering its fourth week, and investors are clearly starting to panic, ditching risky assets across the board. With oil prices shooting up and the threat of inflation and Fed rate hikes looming, the longer the war goes on, the worse it may get. While the situation could lead to good opportunities for long-term investors, the uncertainty is risky, and trying to time the market is never a great idea. President Trump’s most recent 48-hour ultimatum to Iran about the reopening the Strait of Hormuz is being viewed as a possible escalation, causing Japan’s stock market to fall early Monday morning, and S&P futures to drop dramatically.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Churchill Asset Management CEO Ken Kencel about the evolution of private credit and the impact of AI on the asset class.

🚀 Defense tech IPOs: In the wake of Swarmer’s successful IPO, Crunchbase looked at other startups in the sector that could potentially go public, including prominent companies such as Anduril, Chaos, and Shield AI, and others that may be under the radar. We will cover the sector in our next pre-IPO briefing on Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET.

🏡 New home sales fall: The rate of new homes sold in January in the U.S. fell to their lowest level since 2022, dropping 17.6% monthly and 11.3% year-over-year, in part due to harsh winter conditions, and in part due to falling buyer demand. The median sale price also fell significantly, by 4.5% monthly and 6.8% year-over-year.

🎨 Middle market heating up: Artworks under $1 million made up 94% of transactions at the three major auction houses last year, and those under $50,000 made up 61.3% of the total lots sold in the U.S., up from the pre-pandemic average share of 48.2%.

🎰 Kalshi doubles valuation: The prediction market startup is raising $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, doubling its valuation in just four months, and quadrupling it in the past year.

⚾ Judge/Ohtani $2 million card: A one of one 2025 Topps Chrome dual Logoman card featuring last year’s baseball MVPs — Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani — sold for $2.16 million, the 4th most ever for a modern baseball card. Three of those sales have now come in the past five months.

🤖 Fal fundraise: The AI video startup is reportedly raising $300-$350 million at an $8 billion valuation, nearly double its last valuation of $4.5 billion in December.

Tuesday: The S&P U.S. services and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released.

Wednesday: The Major League Baseball season kicks off in San Francisco with a matchup between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants.

Thursday: Heritage’s U.S. Coins Signature auction, which runs through Saturday and features a number of six-figure gold coins.

Friday: Consumer sentiment index released; Christie’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sale in Hong Kong.

Sunday: Sotheby’s Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction in Hong Kong, featuring a Joan Mitchell painting with a high estimate of $38 million.

*as of 3/19; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

Municipal Bonds
Example: Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund (MUTF: NHMRX)
Current price: $14.30 (average annual return since inception: 4.78%)

• Municipal bonds offer a fantastic way to address tax efficiency

• As states look for revenue, tax-efficient strategies like munis are a good play

• For high net worth investors, optimizing tax treatment is a very important dynamic

Here’s a list of our past expert investment picks.

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2026 will redefine IT as a strategic driver of global growth. Automation, AI-driven support, unified platforms, and zero-trust security are becoming standard, especially for distributed teams. This toolkit helps IT and HR leaders assess readiness, define goals, and build a scalable, audit-ready IT strategy for the year ahead. Learn what’s changing and how to prepare.

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Ken Kencel is the President and CEO of Churchill Asset Management, an affiliate of Nuveen, the asset manager of TIAA, a Fortune 500 financial services company. He also serves as Chairman of the Board, President and CEO of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE: NCDL) and Nuveen Churchill Private Capital Income Fund (PCAP), Churchill’s publicly registered business development companies.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Churchill Asset Management CEO Ken Kencel about the evolution of private credit and the impact of AI on the asset class.

📈 VCX goes public: The Fundrise Innovation Fund — with a portfolio including Anthropic, OpenAI, Anduril, Databricks, SpaceX and more — went public, shooting up from $31 per share to a high of $128 before closing at $76.16, up 143%. The fund’s NAV coming into the offering was $18.97, so investors are paying up for access, creating a premium that may come down in six months when many original holders can first sell their shares.

🚀 Swarmer’s IPO pops: The drone startup jumped from its IPO price of $5 per share to $31 at the end of its first day of trading, and now sits above $50 per share, a strong sign of the market’s appetite for defense tech companies.

❌ Meta shuts down Horizon Worlds: The tech giant that renamed itself after the metaverse is closing its VR metaverse platform on June 15, ending a costly chapter for a company that has since pivoted to AI.

🪙 Kraken postpones IPO: The crypto exchange has decided to shelve its public offering due to market volatility and the crypto market’s downturn since last fall, when it originally filed with the SEC. The question investors now face is when the crypto IPO window will reopen, if ever.

🏡 Median asking rents fall: The national median asking rent fell 1.7% year-over-year, hitting its lowest point in four years, with rents in all 50 major metro areas now falling below their peaks.

🥃 Million dollar whiskey casks: The last two remaining casks of Karuizawa Japanese single malt from 1999 sold for $2.29 million each, as demand for whiskey from the now-legendary closed distillery continues to grow.

Monday: 🎸 Irsay memorabilia auctions, 📊 PCE inflation report
Tuesday: 💵 Private credit struggles, 🎨 Banksy’s identity revealed
Wednesday: 🪙 Crypto rally, 🏡 Pending home sales increase
Thursday: 📊 Fed decision, 🪙 Mastercard acquires BVNK

Have a great weekend!

*as of 3/18 Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and hinted that there will only be one rate cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell, whose term expires on May 15, made it clear that the uncertainty surrounding the Iran War and its effects on inflation would inform the decision at the April meeting, likely the last one he will lead. The market reacted negatively to his remarks, as well as a hotter-than-expected inflation reading, with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and the crypto market down more than 4%.

➨ TAKEAWAY: After three straight rate cuts late last year, there was optimism that 2026 would bring another three or more, but those hopes have been dashed by persistent inflation, President Trump’s continued fixation on tariffs, and the new conflict in Iran. Now, projections point to potentially one cut by December, but the CME FedWatch tool now indicates that zero cuts in 2026 is the most likely outcome. A rate hike is even on the table now, with April’s meeting showing a 4% chance of a 25 basis point hike and a 0% chance of a cut. The prevailing winds bode poorly for investors who have been patiently waiting for a lower rate environment and for real estate market participants waiting for lower mortgage rates.

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📊 Wholesale prices skyrocket: The producer price index (PPI) measure of inflation rose a staggering 0.7% last month, well above expectations of 0.3%, and is up 3.4% annually. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy costs, also came in above expectations at 0.5% and is up 3.9% annually, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

🪙 Mastercard buys BVNK: The payments giant is spending $1.8 billion to acquire the stablecoin infrastructure startup BVNK, which was recently valued at $750 million. Mastercard is making a big bet on the role that tokenization and stablecoins will play in the mainstream financial system.

🚀 RVI new purchases: Publicly traded Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) purchased $14.6 million worth of Stripe and $20 million worth of AI startup ElevenLabs, adding to its portfolio, which had a total size of $658.4 million when it launched. The stock rose slightly in response to the news, but is still down 7% since its debut.

🏡 Zillow projections: The real estate platform now projects home prices to rise 0.7% annually by the end of the year, a slight decrease from prior projections, and multifamily rents to rise by 0.9% with single-family rents increasing 1.8%.

🤖 OpenAI joint venture: The massive AI startup is reportedly discussing a $10 billion joint venture with private equity funds including TCG and Bain Capital, where the firms would commit $4 billion in capital and distribute OpenAI’s products to their portfolio companies.

💵 Morgan Stanley warns on private credit: The Wall Street bank says that defaults on private credit loans could rise to their highest level since the pandemic, and that the risk in the asset class is “significant.”

One of the concerns surrounding AI in the film industry is that it will eventually replace actors, or use the likenesses of existing actors in perpetuity. For example, an AI video that showed Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt fighting got AI video model Seedance in trouble for copyright infringement. But now, the late Val Kilmer is being digitally resurrected to star in a new movie, ironically titled “As Deep as the Grave.” Kilmer was cast in the project five years ago, but the actor could not perform due to the health issues that eventually took his life. Now, with Kilmer’s family’s permission, the writer/director of the project is using AI to create a performance from scratch, and is doing so within SAG guidelines. Still, this is an interesting precedent to set and it remains to be seen how audiences will react, and whether actors like Cruise and Pitt will be fighting each other in AI generated movies for decades to come.

*as of 3/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Yesterday, Bitcoin rose above $75,000 for the first time in six weeks, capping off a sustained rally over the past 10 days that saw its price rise 15%, with the crypto market as a whole gaining 12%. While Bitcoin and other major coins retreated a bit as the day wore on, Ethereum is still up 14% in the last week, XRP is up 10%, and Solana is up 8%.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While the market is still down significantly from last year’s highs, this rebound in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and a broad stock market slump is a good sign. Two pieces of regulatory news could continue to boost the market, with the SEC declaring that “most crypto assets” are not securities, and news that the Senate is making progress on its crypto market structure bill.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Churchill Asset Management CEO Ken Kencel about the evolution of private credit and the impact of AI on the asset class.

🏡 Pending home sales increase: A slight decline in mortgage rates last month spurred a 1.8% monthly increase in pending home sales, beating expectations and showing that there is pent-up buyer demand waiting for lower rates.

🏡 Homebuilder confidence ticks up: Builder confidence rose one point to 38, as the market for newly-built homes looked slightly more promising last month, though the survey responses were given before the war began.

🚀 Fundrise delays VCX: The investing platform’s public listing of its venture-focused Innovation Fund was supposed to happen yesterday but has been pushed to Thursday for now, due in part to war-induced market volatility.

🏢 Mall traffic growing: All types of malls saw strong year-over-year growth in foot traffic, with open-air centers leading the way with a 7.3% gain, followed by outlet malls at 7.2% and indoor malls at 5%.

🤖 Senators want Seedance shut down: Multiple U.S. lawmakers have told ByteDance’s CEO that the new version of its AI video generator Seedance needs to be shut down due to “glaring” copyright infringement. The app’s global launch had already been delayed due to pressure from Hollywood studios, but this is another blow to the TikTok parent company as it stalls further and may not launch at all.

⚾ Vintage card quality: While third-party grading is still important, the actual print quality of a vintage card, which is often not a major part of the grade, is taking on greater importance to collectors as part of overall “eye appeal.”

In a strong week for crypto, the top performer among the biggest tokens by market cap was Bittensor, the native token of the decentralized platform for advancing artificial intelligence. Its price had fallen to as low as $165 earlier this month, and though it is still down significantly from highs near $500 last November, it staged a strong comeback this week for multiple reasons. First, the Grayscale Bittensor Trust turned 90 days old, so its private placement holding period was reduced from 1 year to six months. Second, and more directly, research lab Covenant AI launched a new model designed to operate on the Bittensor network, which spurred demand. Generally, AI-related tokens had a strong week, and as the biggest, TAO saw a significant benefit.

*as of 3/16; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Private credit funds run by major asset managers such as BlackRock, Blue Owl, and Blackstone have been hit recently with waves of redemption requests from investors looking for liquidity. The first two have had to limit withdrawals, while the latter injected $400 million of capital into the fund just to meet the record number of requests. Publicly traded business development companies (BDCs), which are a way for retail investors to access private credit holdings, are now trading at a significantly larger discount than they were a year ago. Stock prices of major asset managers, including the above three, as well as KKR, Apollo, and Ares, have also plummeted in the past six months.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It is clear that investors are fleeing the once-hot asset class, as concerns have grown about liquidity and the ability of borrowers to pay back their high-interest loans. With retail investors piling into to private credit in the past few years, there is a risk that those exiting with losses will not ever come back to the asset class, threatening its long-term growth.

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In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund discussed Ramp, OpenEvidence, Apptronik, Whop, and Shield AI, five of the hottest companies in the Pre-IPO asset class - and how investors can get access.

🚀 RVI’s slow start: Robinhood’s new closed-end publicly traded venture fund went public last week to great fanfare, only to see the initial price of $25 per share drop by more than 10% on its first day. Customer demand has not been as high as expected, and Fundrise’s similar publicly traded venture fund (VCX) delayed its planned IPO, though it is now scheduled to debut tomorrow.

🤖 Vast Data megaround: The AI infrastructure startup is reportedly raising a $1 billion funding round at a $30 billion valuation, more than three times its last valuation of $9.1 billion from 2023. Half of the proceeds are going to early investors and employees, who had the option to sell their shares for 15% below the new valuation.

🎨 Banksy’s identity revealed: An in-depth report from Reuters has made a convincing case about the identity of the anonymous street artist, confirming older reports that he is a man from Bristol previously named Robin Gunningham and now named David Jones. Whether this will affect the desirability of Banksy’s artwork in the market remains to be seen.

🏢 Retail lending rebounding: The majority of U.S. banks with more than $1 billion in retail loans increased their exposure last year, a strong sign for a sector that has seen positive momentum in the past few years.

🏡 Older Americans lead in RE wealth: Americans between 55 and 69 hold the greatest share of real estate wealth, while for the first time ever, Americans 70 and older hold more real estate wealth than those aged 40-54.

🪙 Equities on the blockchain: Both Nasdaq and the parent company of the NYSE have recently partnered with crypto exchanges, Kraken and OKX, in pursuit of the clear goal of creating a tokenized stock exchange. Beyond affecting the equities market, there will be winners and losers within the crypto ecosystem as well, though it’s too early to know who those will be.

(OneKey MLS)

A seven-bedroom, three-bathroom, three-level house built in 1886 just hit the market and attracted attention for both its location and the asking price. Nestled right up against the busy New York Thruway in Nyack, NY - around an hour north of New York City - the ¾ acre property is asking $1.49 million despite needing a full renovation and the neighboring highway. Some of the listing images are not for the faint-hearted or those triggered by hoarding and trash, as the seller and listing agent haven’t bothered to clean up the property. As such, the seller is “open to negotiation” for anyone brave-hearted enough to take on a project of this size.

*as of 3/15, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The much-anticipated series of auctions of the late Jim Irsay’s memorabilia collection kicked off late last week and did not disappoint, generating $93.6 million in sales and breaking numerous records. The three most expensive guitars ever and five of the top ten came from the centerpiece auction on Thursday, including the new #1, a black Fender Stratocaster once owned by Pink Floyd guitarist David Gilmour that sold for $14.55 million. That was more than three times its high estimate and much more than the $3.975 million that Irsay paid for it. The new #2 is a custom electric guitar that belonged to the Grateful Dead’s Jerry Garcia that sold for $11.56 million, and the new #3 is Kurt Cobain’s guitar from the “Smells Like Teen Spirit” music video that sold for $6.91 million. Another notable sale was for Jack Kerouac’s famous “On the Road” scroll, which sold to country singer Zach Bryan for $12.1 million, well above its high estimate and the $2.43 million Irsay paid for it in 2001.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The “On the Road” sale set a new record for the most expensive literary work ever sold, and Kerouac’s “Dharma Bums” scroll also smashed expectations and sold for $1.65 million. Those sales, the guitar sales, and the numerous other seven-figure music memorabilia sales, all of which exceeded their high estimates, show the power of truly rare one-of-one items. The auction results also continues the trend of music and entertainment memorabilia becoming legitimate asset classes at the high end, joining other long-standing collectibles categories such as sports memorabilia and sports cards.

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📊 PCE inflation report: The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 0.3% in January and was up 2.8% annually, meeting expectations, but still higher than the Fed’s 2% target. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annually. The Fed meets this week, and is not projected to cut interest rates, with this report unlikely to change any minds.

🚀 February’s new unicorns: There were 27 startups that eclipsed the $1 billion valuation mark in February, with six coming from the robotics sector and six coming from the semiconductor sector, as AI-related hardware companies led the way.

🤖 Another robotics unicorn: And on cue, March brought one more robotics unicorn, as the household robot startup Sunday raised a $165 million round at a $1.15 billion valuation.

🏡 Home listings tick up: In the past month, new listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 0.5% year over year, the first increase since last November. This coincided with mortgage rates dipping below 6% for the first time since 2022, though they have risen above that mark since the beginning of the Iran war.

🎨 Art sales report: The global art market saw a 4% increase in sales last year, according to the new Art Basel/UBS art market report. The growth was led by two opposite poles - works above $10 million and those below $500,000, with mid-market items showing a decline.

🪙 BlackRock launches staked ETH ETF: Now that regulators have paved the way, the asset manager is launching an Ethereum ETF that offers investors yield, the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB).

This week: The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament begins with the First Four on Tuesday, with the first full day on Thursday - get those brackets ready!

Tuesday: St. Patrick’s Day holiday; pending home sales report; homebuilder confidence index released.

Wednesday: The Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which is overwhelmingly likely to be no change; Producer price index (PPI) and core PPI inflation reports released.

Thursday: Fanatics Collect Premier Auction, featuring an Aaron Judge/Shohei Ohtani one of one card that has already surpassed $1 million; new home sales report released.