Issue 147 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

If you read last week that “the door is open for buyers,” it was technically accurate for about 5 days.

Then on Saturday, missiles started flying, and we legit thought this would drive rates even further into the 5’s.

Welp, welcome to bizzaro world. Rates spiked. More on that in the rates section of WHY…

Giphy

Personal Note:
A few weeks ago, we headed out to a pre-planned Sonoma County “Tied Pool” learning experience at Doran Beach. It was cold and raining, but we went! Kids got to learn bout our local tidal animals.

Spent a little while at the beach, because why not. The kid’s got humbled when they challenged their “slow” dad to a 40-yard dash in the sand. Yes, I had to stretch out later. Worth it.

Freezing family pic. He’s getting faster, but still can’t beat Dad.

Checking out some sea stars. JJ goofing for the camera.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Big Bounce on Iran Strikes

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Home Prices (Nationally) Move Higher

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 March 3rd, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

🌍 What Just Happened

Over the weekend, military action involving Iran triggered a sharp reaction in global markets.

Instead of the typical flight to safety that pushes bond yields lower, we saw the opposite.

📈 The 10 year Treasury moved back above 4 percent
📉 Mortgage bonds sold off
🏠 Rate sheets worsened

The driver was oil.

Crude prices jumped on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil rises quickly, inflation expectations rise with it. Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so investors demanded higher yields.

Higher yields equal higher mortgage rates.

Giphy

🔍 Why This Is Different

In past geopolitical conflicts, markets often moved into U.S. Treasuries for safety. That usually helped rates improve.

This time, inflation concerns are dominating the narrative.

Two forces are competing:

• Safe-haven buying, which lowers yields
• Inflation fear from higher oil, which raises yields

Right now, inflation fear is winning.

👀 What Realtors Should Watch

This Week Is Jobs Week

Strong labor data
➡ reinforces inflation concerns
➡ keeps pressure on rates

Weaker labor data
➡ helps bonds recover
➡ improves pricing

Spring demand is still present. The key question is whether rates stabilize or continue drifting higher.

🗓 Jobs Week Schedule (Pacific Time)

📊 Wednesday – ADP Private Payrolls
🕔 5:15 AM PT
Early look at private sector job growth.

📉 Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
🕠 5:30 AM PT
Weekly snapshot of unemployment trends.

🔥 Friday – BLS Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
🕠 5:30 AM PT
The big one. Includes:
• Total jobs created
• Unemployment rate
• Wage growth

Friday morning is the market mover. Expect volatility in bonds and rate sheets shortly after release.

🏡 Realtor Insight

Volatility does not mean panic.

Geopolitical spikes historically fade unless the energy supply is materially disrupted long-term.

The next move will likely be determined by:

• Oil behavior
• Jobs data
• Inflation readings

Short-term noise. Long-term trend is still data-driven.

TECHNICALS
Home Prices Climb, Inflation Stays Sticky

Home prices continue to rise, wholesale inflation came in hotter than expected, and the labor market is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

Here's what actually matters for your buyers and sellers 👇

📈 Home Prices Keep Moving Higher

Two key reports confirmed that home values are still trending up.

• 📊 Case-Shiller Index: -0.3% on the surface from Nov to Dec, but +0.4% after seasonal adjustment. Up 1.3% year over year.

• 📊 FHFA Index: +0.1% in December, the 11th straight monthly gain. Up 1.8% year over year.

• 📈 Fannie Mae now projects 15% cumulative price growth over the next five years.

  

📌 Realtor Insight: Waiting has a real cost. Prices are not pulling back, and if rates improve, competition will only increase.

🔥 Wholesale Inflation Ran Hot

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above expectations.

• 📊 Headline PPI: +0.5% for the month, 2.9% annually

• 📊 Core PPI: +0.8% for the month, 3.6% annually

  Sticky wholesale inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to stay cautious with rate cuts.

  📌 Realtor Insight: Hotter inflation makes it harder for rates to drop meaningfully. Help clients plan around current rates rather than waiting for a big move down.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 📋 ADP private payroll figures on Wednesday

• 💼 Weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday

• 📊 Friday's jobs report: non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage growth

Jobs data is the main event. If hiring comes in softer, bonds could rally and push rates lower.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

🌍 What Just Happened

Over the weekend, military action involving Iran triggered a sharp reaction in global markets.

Instead of the typical flight to safety that pushes bond yields lower, we saw the opposite.

📈 The 10 year Treasury moved back above 4 percent
📉 Mortgage bonds sold off
🏠 Rate sheets worsened

The driver was oil.

Crude prices jumped on fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil rises quickly, inflation expectations rise with it. Inflation is the enemy of bonds, so investors demanded higher yields.

Higher yields equal higher mortgage rates.

Giphy

🔍 Why This Is Different

In past geopolitical conflicts, markets often moved into U.S. Treasuries for safety. That usually helped rates improve.

This time, inflation concerns are dominating the narrative.

Two forces are competing:

• Safe-haven buying, which lowers yields
• Inflation fear from higher oil, which raises yields

Right now, inflation fear is winning.

👀 What Realtors Should Watch

This Week Is Jobs Week

Strong labor data
➡ reinforces inflation concerns
➡ keeps pressure on rates

Weaker labor data
➡ helps bonds recover
➡ improves pricing

Spring demand is still present. The key question is whether rates stabilize or continue drifting higher.

🗓 Jobs Week Schedule (Pacific Time)

📊 Wednesday – ADP Private Payrolls
🕔 5:15 AM PT
Early look at private sector job growth.

📉 Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims
🕠 5:30 AM PT
Weekly snapshot of unemployment trends.

🔥 Friday – BLS Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
🕠 5:30 AM PT
The big one. Includes:
• Total jobs created
• Unemployment rate
• Wage growth

Friday morning is the market mover. Expect volatility in bonds and rate sheets shortly after release.

🏡 Realtor Insight

Volatility does not mean panic.

Geopolitical spikes historically fade unless the energy supply is materially disrupted long-term.

The next move will likely be determined by:

• Oil behavior
• Jobs data
• Inflation readings

Short-term noise. Long-term trend is still data-driven.

Issue 146 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Having a Monday holiday last week + a rate movement had me scrambling and kept me from getting the newsletter out! We are back now!!

Rates finally moved lower.

Not because everything looks perfect, but because the bond market is starting to believe growth is slowing and inflation is no longer re-accelerating. After weeks of volatility and delayed data, we got enough clarity for money to move back into bonds, and that helped mortgage rates improve.

For buyers who have been waiting for some relief, this is the first real shift in tone we’ve seen in a bit. Now comes the real question: which buyers will “pocket” the perceived savings and which will use this leverage to increase the offer price to WIN the deal (more on that in the rates section!).

Giphy

Personal Note:
Valentine's Day, Jamie and I got out for a car rally that ran from a winery in Calistoga to a midway point of Hopland and then ended at another winery in Healdsburg.

Great people and really fun times. Ended up stopping by a few other favorites while in Dry Creek before returning home that afternoon.

Hitting the Napa / Lake / Sonoma County back roads. The rally route was about 100 miles total.

On the way through W. Dry Creek to the winery. Jamie and I pulled over to get some great pics of the mustard on W. Dry Creek.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬇️ RATES - Touching high 5’s

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Delayed data adds fuel to the fire.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 24th, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📉 Rates Have Improved
Mortgage bonds have been trending better, which has pushed rates down from recent highs. That is real movement, not sideways noise.

We are entering the DANGER ZONE for buyers who sit back and want to absorb the monthly “savings”.

Gif by onerepublic on Giphy

🗣️ Fed Tone Is Softening
Governor Waller signaled:

• January job strength may be overstated

• Underlying inflation may already be near 2 percent

• One strong labor report does not equal a strong labor market

That is supportive for lower rates over time.

Realtor Takeaway

The direction is improving.
The question now is momentum.

If bonds break through resistance, pricing sheets improve again.
If not, we consolidate before the next move.

TECHNICALS
Delayed Housing, Inflation and GDP Data Released

A wave of delayed data finally hit after the government shutdown. We got updates on inflation, housing, GDP and jobs all at once.

Here’s what actually matters for your buyers and sellers 👇

📈 PCE Inflation Came in Hotter Than Expected

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

• 📊 Headline PCE: +0.4% for the month, 2.9% annually

• 📊 Core PCE (no food & energy): +0.4% for the month, 3.0% annually

• 🎥 Streaming services jumped 19.5% in December

What this means:

• 🏦 Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target

• ⏳ That makes immediate rate cuts less likely

• ⚖️ The Fed is balancing sticky inflation vs a cooling labor market

Chair Jerome Powell continues to emphasize caution. No clear path without tradeoffs.

📌 Realtor Insight:
If inflation refuses to cool, mortgage rates may struggle to move meaningfully lower. Buyers waiting for a dramatic drop could be disappointed unless upcoming data softens.

🌧️ Weather Slowed Existing Home Contracts

Pending Home Sales (signed contracts on existing homes) fell:

• 📉 -0.8% month over month

• 📉 -0.4% year over year

• 🌨️ Storms hit the South and Northeast hardest

• 🌴 West and Midwest actually saw gains

According to National Association of REALTORS Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, lower mortgage rates could bring 550,000 additional buyers into the market this year.

The issue?

More buyers + limited supply = price pressure.

📌 Realtor Insight:
If rates dip even modestly, buyer demand could snap back quickly. If inventory does not expand at the same pace, expect renewed competition.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 🏠 Home price data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

• 🏡 FHFA home price update

• 🧾 Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday

• 💼 Weekly jobless claims

Wholesale inflation from PPI will be especially important. If that comes in cool, bonds could rally.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

📉 Rates Have Improved
Mortgage bonds have been trending better, which has pushed rates down from recent highs. That is real movement, not sideways noise.

We are entering the DANGER ZONE for buyers who sit back and want to absorb the monthly “savings”.

Gif by onerepublic on Giphy

🗣️ Fed Tone Is Softening
Governor Waller signaled:

• January job strength may be overstated

• Underlying inflation may already be near 2 percent

• One strong labor report does not equal a strong labor market

That is supportive for lower rates over time.

Realtor Takeaway

The direction is improving.
The question now is momentum.

If bonds break through resistance, pricing sheets improve again.
If not, we consolidate before the next move.

Issue 145 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Bonds are already leaning toward lower yields, and the upcoming jobs report and CPI will either validate that move or pause it. If labor and inflation continue to cool, rates are teed up for a potential move downward later this week.

Personal Note:
Jamie and I are headed out for a car rally early Saturday morning, the 14th. Yes, she actually enjoys these things haha. Pictures next week.

DO NOT FORGET that Saturday is Valentine’s Day, don’t be that spouse / significant other who totally blanks and doesn’t make an attempt.

Guys - Flowers and/or chocolate, classic.
Ladies - Bring home your spouse’s favorite 6-pack, it’s basically the same as flowers.

Gif by BrittDoesDesign on Giphy

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Hold from last week, but we bet there will be a drop later this week.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Labor market losing steam.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 10th, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Mortgage rates are starting the week basically unchanged.
Despite a choppy bond market last week, we ended up right back to even compared to last Monday.

Stocks and mortgage bonds are slightly lower this morning, but pricing is steady because the bond market is waiting on major data.

⏳ Why This Week Matters

This is a high-impact week for rates.

• 🗓 Wednesday: Delayed January Jobs Report

• 🗓 Friday: CPI Inflation Report

What the Market Is Watching

• Jobs expected around 70,000

• Unemployment expected near 4.4%

• CPI expected to cool slightly, especially Core inflation

👉 Softer jobs or cooler inflation = bond-friendly = better rates.

🏠 Refinance Watch

• ~1.3M loans sit between 6.875%–7.00%

• A move toward 6% could unlock millions of refinance opportunities

• These windows tend to be brief

📌 Realtor Insight

Rates are flat for now, but this week decides the direction.
Wednesday and Friday matter, and a soft CPI could quickly shift buyer momentum.

TECHNICALS
Labor Market Loses Momentum

The labor market is clearly cooling, while housing continues to show resilience. Here are the pieces that matter most for rates and real estate.

⏱️ Government Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

• The January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed due to the shutdown

• New release date is February 11, pushing market clarity out another week

Why this matters: Markets hate uncertainty. Delays often increase short-term volatility in bonds and mortgage rates.

📉 Private Payroll Growth Stalls

• ADP reported only 22,000 jobs added in January

• Expectations were closer to 48,000

• Small businesses were flat

• Medium-sized firms added jobs

• Large employers cut 18,000 positions

Wages:

• Job switchers saw pay up 6.4% YoY

• Workers staying put saw 4.5% YoY

Big picture:

• 2025 job growth totaled 398,000, down sharply from 771,000 in 2024

• Average monthly job growth in 2025 was roughly 33,000

Why this matters: Slower hiring reduces inflation pressure and supports lower long-term rates.

👀 What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday: January Jobs Report from the BLS

• Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Tuesday: Retail Sales

• Thursday: Existing Home Sales and weekly jobless claims

Market focus: Jobs and inflation data will drive bond direction and rate movement.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Mortgage rates are starting the week basically unchanged.
Despite a choppy bond market last week, we ended up right back to even compared to last Monday.

Stocks and mortgage bonds are slightly lower this morning, but pricing is steady because the bond market is waiting on major data.

⏳ Why This Week Matters

This is a high-impact week for rates.

• 🗓 Wednesday: Delayed January Jobs Report

• 🗓 Friday: CPI Inflation Report

What the Market Is Watching

• Jobs expected around 70,000

• Unemployment expected near 4.4%

• CPI expected to cool slightly, especially Core inflation

👉 Softer jobs or cooler inflation = bond-friendly = better rates.

🏠 Refinance Watch

• ~1.3M loans sit between 6.875%–7.00%

• A move toward 6% could unlock millions of refinance opportunities

• These windows tend to be brief

📌 Realtor Insight

Rates are flat for now, but this week decides the direction.
Wednesday and Friday matter, and a soft CPI could quickly shift buyer momentum.

Issue 144 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.
The Fed held rates last week, Trump nominated a new Fed Chair (as expected), and some of that led to a massive sell-off in Silver and Gold. Both had been on a burner for the last 6 months.

The estimates are that 7 TRILLION (with a T) was lost in 1 day last week, lol. Both have since started to recover, but Holy smokes.

Personal Note:
Jamie booked a fun outing called the “Newt Commute” through Sonoma County Regional Parks. We got to preview a future park under development and see one of its major attractions. California Newts!

Was only about a 20 min drive from home.

They found a tiny Newt!

Red Belly adult Newt.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Slight Bump UP

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Fed holds steady. New Fed Chair Named.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 February 3rd, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Rates moved higher last week as markets headed into a heavy jobs week.

What’s driving it

• Mortgage bonds sold off as investors positioned ahead of key labor data

• Jobless claims continue to understate weakness by excluding gig workers, self-employed borrowers, and long-term unemployed whose benefits have expired

🏛 Fed backdrop

• Fed Governor Waller says policy remains restrictive

• Inflation excluding tariffs is near the Fed’s 2% target

• Rate cuts remain possible, but markets want confirmation from jobs data

📆 This week

• Friday’s Jobs Report is the primary driver for near-term rate direction

🧠 Realtor insight

• Weaker jobs data supports lower rates

• Strong data keeps upward pressure on rates

TECHNICALS
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Trump Names Chair Pick 🏦

The Fed hit pause at its first meeting of the year, President Donald Trump named his preferred next Fed Chair, and home price data showed buyers are still showing up despite affordability pressure.

Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair 👀

President Trump announced plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, set to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.

Why this matters:

• 🧭 Warsh previously served on the Fed’s Board from 2006–2011

• 🔥 Historically viewed as an inflation hawk

• 🔄 More recently, he has argued the Fed should move faster on rate cuts

• ⚖️ Signals a potential philosophical shift in future Fed leadership

Realtor Insight:
Markets care less about politics and more about policy direction. A Chair perceived as more rate-cut friendly can influence long-term rate expectations well before any actual changes occur.

Buyer Demand Is Still Supporting Home Prices 🏠

Despite affordability challenges, national home prices remain firm.

Latest data:

• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

  • 📉 –0.1% month over month (unadjusted)

  • 📈 +0.4% after seasonal adjustment

  • 📊 +1.4% year over year

• FHFA Home Price Index

  • 📈 +0.6% month over month

  • 📈 +1.9% year over year

What’s driving this:

• 👥 Buyer demand improved as rates eased

• 🧱 Builders remain supply-constrained

• ⏳ New inventory cannot ramp quickly

Realtor Insight:
If rates drift even modestly lower, demand could re-accelerate faster than supply, putting renewed pressure on prices in competitive markets.

Labor and Inflation Check 📊

Labor market:

• 🧾 Initial jobless claims: 209,000

• 🔄 Continuing claims: 1.827 million

• 🛠️ Elevated continuing claims suggest longer job searches and gig-work substitution

Inflation:

• 📦 Producer Prices (PPI):

  • +0.5% month over month

  • +3.0% year over year

• ⚙️ Core PPI driven mainly by machinery and equipment margins

Realtor Insight:
Hot producer inflation keeps pressure on rates, even if consumer inflation cools. The Fed cannot ignore this data.

What to Watch This Week 👀

• 📌 Job Openings (Tuesday)

• 📌 ADP Private Payrolls (Wednesday)

• 📌 Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday)

• 📌 Jobs Report and Unemployment Rate (Friday)

⚠️ Government funding negotiations could delay releases.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Rates moved higher last week as markets headed into a heavy jobs week.

What’s driving it

• Mortgage bonds sold off as investors positioned ahead of key labor data

• Jobless claims continue to understate weakness by excluding gig workers, self-employed borrowers, and long-term unemployed whose benefits have expired

🏛 Fed backdrop

• Fed Governor Waller says policy remains restrictive

• Inflation excluding tariffs is near the Fed’s 2% target

• Rate cuts remain possible, but markets want confirmation from jobs data

📆 This week

• Friday’s Jobs Report is the primary driver for near-term rate direction

🧠 Realtor insight

• Weaker jobs data supports lower rates

• Strong data keeps upward pressure on rates

Issue 143 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

Inflation landed exactly as expected last week, keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and no one expects a cut to the prime rate at this meeting.

Personal Note:
JJ has had a blast playing flag football on Sunday mornings. The Gators are 2-0! They are taking no prisoners on the gridiron.

Been really fun to see all the kids pick up the basics over the past few weeks. Should be a fun next 6-7 weeks of watching them all learn more about football!

“I want 49 for the 49ers.” Love it. Team photo op!

Mr. Football. Giphy - Gator - IYKYK

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - All quiet on the Western rate front.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - PCE plays along. No surprises.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 January 27th, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Mortgage rates were volatile last week but finished mostly unchanged, with Jumbo improving.

What happened 📊

• 🌍 Global headlines caused intraday bond swings

  • Tariff threats

  • Japanese central bank headlines

  • Geopolitical noise

• 📉 Bonds sold off early, then recovered

• 🧾 Weekly takeaway: noise during the week, flat to better by Friday

Where rates landed

• Conventional: ~5.99% (flat week over week)

• Jumbo: ~6.125% (down ~0.25%)

• FHA and VA: largely unchanged, VA slightly better

What matters now 🧠

• Mortgage bonds remain supported above short-term levels

• The 10-year Treasury is range-bound, not breaking higher

• Markets are reacting fast to headlines, then mean-reverting

Realtor Insight 🏡
Despite scary daily moves, weekly pricing stayed steady and Jumbo actually improved. This supports buyers who are rate-sensitive at higher price points and reinforces that timing the headlines is harder than watching the trend.

TECHNICALS
PCE Inflation: Right on Script

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge did exactly what it was supposed to do: nothing surprising.

🔍 The PCE Read

• Headline PCE: +0.2% month-over-month

• Core PCE: +0.2% month-over-month

• Annual pace: 2.8%

This is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve cares about most when setting policy.

🧠 Why This Matters

• Monthly inflation is cooling, not collapsing

• Early-2025 hot readings are about to roll off the 12-month math

• That sets the stage for better-looking inflation data ahead, even without major economic slowdown

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear that inflation progress must be sustained, not just cooperative for a month or two.

🏦 What This Means for Rates

• This data does not force the Fed to cut

• It does keep cuts on the table later in the year

• Mortgage rates react more to bond markets and inflation trends than the Fed Funds rate itself

Translation: this helps rates stabilize, but it doesn’t unlock a straight line down.

🏠 Realtor Insight

• PCE behaving is a necessary condition for lower mortgage rates

• It is not sufficient on its own

• Expect rates to stay range-bound unless inflation continues to behave through Q1

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

⏱️ Rates in 60 Seconds

Mortgage rates were volatile last week but finished mostly unchanged, with Jumbo improving.

What happened 📊

• 🌍 Global headlines caused intraday bond swings

  • Tariff threats

  • Japanese central bank headlines

  • Geopolitical noise

• 📉 Bonds sold off early, then recovered

• 🧾 Weekly takeaway: noise during the week, flat to better by Friday

Where rates landed

• Conventional: ~5.99% (flat week over week)

• Jumbo: ~6.125% (down ~0.25%)

• FHA and VA: largely unchanged, VA slightly better

What matters now 🧠

• Mortgage bonds remain supported above short-term levels

• The 10-year Treasury is range-bound, not breaking higher

• Markets are reacting fast to headlines, then mean-reverting

Realtor Insight 🏡
Despite scary daily moves, weekly pricing stayed steady and Jumbo actually improved. This supports buyers who are rate-sensitive at higher price points and reinforces that timing the headlines is harder than watching the trend.

Issue 142 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

CPI came in right on target, but rates still moved higher. The pressure isn’t from inflation. It’s coming from renewed EU tariff threats and bond market moves out of Japan. With this Tuesday feeling like a Monday, markets are still finding their footing.

Personal Note:
Milestone alert. Grayson had his 10th birthday last Thursday. Finally got that new bike he’s been begging asking for. Shoutout to Breakaway Bikes in Santa Rosa, great service!

Now he can keep up with his brother on adventures. Which, then JJ pulled me aside and said, “Dad, Gray’s bike is faster than mine now…” so of course Jamie and I got a chuckle out of that as the sibling see-saw power struggle shifted (again) haha.

JJ started his Flag Football league over the weekend, super fun. Pictures to follow next week!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ⬆️ RATES - Pop on Japan bonds and EU tariff threat (over Greenland).

• 🤖 AI EVENT - Local Coffee and AI event invite. ONLY 3 SPOTS LEFT!

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Inflation inline with expectations.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 January 20th, 2026

10 Year, 3 Month Snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Giphy

📈 Rates Moved Higher. Here’s Why.

Mortgage rates pushed up last week due to global bond pressure, not housing fundamentals.

• 🌍 Global yields jumped
  Rising yields overseas, especially out of Japan, pushed global bond rates higher. When global investors can earn more elsewhere, US bonds get sold.

• 💣 Tariff headlines rattled markets
  New tariff threats toward the EU triggered a risk-off move. Markets are pricing in the chance of higher inflation, even though nothing is finalized yet.

• 🏦 Mortgage bonds sold off
  As Treasuries sold off, Mortgage-Backed Securities followed. That directly translates to higher mortgage rates.

• 📉 Technical break lower
  Mortgage bonds broke below key support levels, accelerating the move higher in rates over a short period of time.

Big picture:
Rates did not rise because demand is strong or housing is overheating. This was a macro-driven move tied to global bonds and headlines, not buyers.

EVENT INVITE
Join us for Coffee and AI talk at the GTG Corporate office on January 23rd! (ONLY 3 Spots LEFT)

REGISTER HERE

Who: Glenn from GTG and Kim from Fidelity National Title.
What: Coffee hour to chat about AI in Mortgage and Real Estate.
When: 10 - 11 am, Friday, January 23rd, 2026.
Where: GTG Office - 1421 Guerneville Road, Suite 100, Santa Rosa, CA 95403.
Why: AI is creeping into EVERYTHING!

INDUSTRY
We’re Hiring Excited: Corporate Mortgage Processor Position Has Been Filled!

We have filled the open processing position by hiring Steph Wright. We are very excited to have her as part of the GTG team moving forward!

TECHNICALS
Inflation Check: No Surprises, No Victory Lap

• 📊 Consumer inflation came in right in line with expectations

• 📉 Core inflation stayed at 2.6%, the lowest level since early 2021

• 🏠 Shelter costs are still the problem:

  • They make up about one-third of headline inflation

  • Nearly half of core inflation

Bottom line
Inflation is cooling, but not fast. Housing costs are keeping pressure on the numbers, which limits how aggressive the Fed can be with future rate cuts.

Realtor insight
This is the type of inflation data that helps rates stay stable, but it does not force lenders to move pricing meaningfully lower on its own.

What to Watch This Week

• 📈 PCE Inflation (October & November)
  This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and matters more than CPI.

• 🏡 Pending Home Sales (December)
  A forward-looking signal for spring activity.

• 👷 Weekly Jobless Claims
  Markets are watching for signs the labor market is weakening further.

• 📊 Final Q3 GDP
  Backward-looking, but still part of the Fed’s full economic picture.

Why this matters
Rates tend to wait for confirmation. If PCE stays calm and jobs soften further, bonds may finally get permission to move lower. If not, rates likely stay choppy.

Issue 141 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

The latest BLS jobs report gave bond markets the cover they needed. Job growth slowed, revisions moved lower, and labor pressure continued to ease. That backdrop is why the $200B headline around mortgage bond buying actually moved markets, rather than being ignored.

When data and headlines line up, bonds respond first, and mortgage rates tend to follow.

Personal Note:

Saturday night was fun… had my first trip to the ER since I was 11. Took a Nerf dart directly to the pupil. No, I was not wearing safety goggles, yes, I know I should have been.

I am fine, my eye is fine. The doctor (who also has 8 and 10-year-old boys) sympathized, and basically laughed at me… which I 100% deserved, haha.

Needless to say, we now have a strict “put on your damn safety goggles” rule around the house.

BTW, great show (The Pitt on HBO)

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• 🤝 INDUSTRY - We’re hiring a Mortgage Processor… who do you know?

• ⬇️ RATES - Big moves DOWN

• 🤖 AI EVENT - Sonoma County Coffee and AI event invite.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Soft Job Data

INDUSTRY

We’re Hiring: Corporate Mortgage Processor

We are adding a Corporate Mortgage Processor to the GTG Financial team located here in Santa Rosa, CA. This could become a hybrid or full-remote position.

This is not an entry-level role, but we could consider someone with the right attitude. This is not a high-chaos environment. We are looking for someone who takes ownership of files, communicates clearly, and takes pride in submitting clean, well-documented loans.

GTG Operations waiting for their next team mate…

If you have strong experience with Conventional, FHA, and VA loans, understand how a brokerage operates, and prefer structure over fire drills, this could be a great fit.

👉 Interested or know someone who would be a strong match?
Reply to this email or reach out directly. Discretion respected.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 January 13th, 2026

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Rates Update: Why the $200B MBS Move Matters

Last Thursday, the 8th, Donald Trump said he is instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Here is what that actually means for mortgage rates, in plain terms.

What happens when $200B goes into MBS

• 📉 More buyers of mortgage bonds
  When Fannie and Freddie buy MBS, demand goes up. Higher demand pushes MBS prices higher.

• 📉 Higher MBS prices = lower mortgage rates
  Mortgage rates move opposite MBS prices. As MBS prices rise, lenders can offer lower rates.

• 📉 Mortgage spreads tighten
  This helps reduce the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates, which has been unusually wide.

Why this is a big number

• 💰 $200B is meaningful
  Prior QE programs buying roughly $40B per month had a noticeable impact on rates.
  Even if this averages closer to $20B per month, it is still supportive for mortgage pricing.

• 🏦 This targets mortgages directly
  This is not about long-term Treasuries. It specifically supports housing and mortgage rates.

What we saw in the market so far

• 📊 MBS prices jumped immediately after the announcement

• 📊 Gains were partially tempered by the BLS Jobs Report

• 📊 Net result: mortgage bonds remain about 40 bps better than before the announcement

What this means for buyers and sellers

• 🏠 Rates have room to move lower

• 🔁 More refinance opportunities ahead if this continues

• 📈 Lower rates support demand and home values

Realtor Insight:
This creates a window where buyers can get in at today’s prices, benefit from potential appreciation, and still have a refinance opportunity later if rates continue to ease.

⚠️ CAUTION AHEAD: If this trend in rates continues and accelerates, it could lead to a price ramp-up as buyers stretch their newly gained buying power.

EVENT INVITE
Join us for Coffee and AI talk at the GTG Corporate office on January 23rd! (Limited Spaces)

REGISTER HERE

Who: Glenn from GTG and Kim from Fidelity National Title.
What: Coffee hour to chat about AI in Mortgage and Real Estate.
When: 10 - 11 am, Friday, January 23rd, 2026.
Where: GTG Office - 1421 Guerneville Road, Suite 100, Santa Rosa, CA 95403.
Why: AI is creeping into EVERYTHING!

TECHNICALS
Soft Jobs Data

The trend did not change. The labor market is cooling, and housing supply is still struggling to grow. That combination matters for rates and pricing.

🧑‍🏭 Jobs Data: Softer Beneath the Headline

• 📉 50,000 jobs added, below expectations

• 🔻 Prior months revised down 76,000 jobs

• 🏥 Most gains came from health care and leisure, both seasonal and less cyclical

• ❗ Outside those sectors, job growth was effectively negative

Realtor takeaway

• Slower job growth supports lower bond yields, which helps mortgage rates over time

• This is not inflationary labor data

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

👀 What to Watch This Week

• 📊 CPI and New Home Sales

• 🏠 Existing Home Sales and Retail Sales

• 🧾 Weekly Jobless Claims

Markets are data-sensitive right now.

📈 Rates Snapshot

• 🏦 Mortgage bonds rallied after the President signaled $200B of MBS purchases

• 📊 10-year Treasury remains rangebound near 4.20%

Realtor takeaway

• Mortgage rates follow bond demand, not Fed headlines

• MBS support matters directly for rate sheets

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Rates Update: Why the $200B MBS Move Matters

Last Thursday, the 8th, Donald Trump said he is instructing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Here is what that actually means for mortgage rates, in plain terms.

What happens when $200B goes into MBS

• 📉 More buyers of mortgage bonds
  When Fannie and Freddie buy MBS, demand goes up. Higher demand pushes MBS prices higher.

• 📉 Higher MBS prices = lower mortgage rates
  Mortgage rates move opposite MBS prices. As MBS prices rise, lenders can offer lower rates.

• 📉 Mortgage spreads tighten
  This helps reduce the gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates, which has been unusually wide.

Why this is a big number

• 💰 $200B is meaningful
  Prior QE programs buying roughly $40B per month had a noticeable impact on rates.
  Even if this averages closer to $20B per month, it is still supportive for mortgage pricing.

• 🏦 This targets mortgages directly
  This is not about long-term Treasuries. It specifically supports housing and mortgage rates.

What we saw in the market so far

• 📊 MBS prices jumped immediately after the announcement

• 📊 Gains were partially tempered by the BLS Jobs Report

• 📊 Net result: mortgage bonds remain about 40 bps better than before the announcement

What this means for buyers and sellers

• 🏠 Rates have room to move lower

• 🔁 More refinance opportunities ahead if this continues

• 📈 Lower rates support demand and home values

Realtor Insight:
This creates a window where buyers can get in at today’s prices, benefit from potential appreciation, and still have a refinance opportunity later if rates continue to ease.

⚠️ CAUTION AHEAD: If this trend in rates continues and accelerates, it could lead to a price ramp-up as buyers stretch their newly gained buying power.

Issue 140 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.
Welcome back!!

While we were away, rates really did not move much at all… even with the weekend shenanigans in South America. Housing quietly ended the year on stronger footing. Buyers are back, prices are holding, and the setup for early 2026 looks constructive.

Super Troopers - 2002

Personal Note:
We had a very merry Christmas and a happy New Year in the Groves’ house. Plenty of board and card games. Christmas movies, way too many sweets, and some really fun times together.

We are looking forward to an excellent 2026!

Jamie, the boys, and Oma are visiting after Christmas morning.

The boys and I are in our stylish new Brock Purdy shirts. (Crocs not included).

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• 🤝 INDUSTRY - We’re hiring a Mortgage Processor… who do you know?

• ↔️ RATES - Still in the solid 6% range.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Pending sales data show a strong market ahead.

INDUSTRY
We’re Hiring: Corporate Mortgage Processor

We are adding a Corporate Mortgage Processor to the GTG Financial team located here in Santa Rosa, CA. This could become a hybrid or full-remote position.

This is not an entry-level role, but we could consider someone with the right attitude. This is not a high-chaos environment. We are looking for someone who takes ownership of files, communicates clearly, and takes pride in submitting clean, well-documented loans.

GTG Operations waiting for their next team mate…

If you have strong experience with Conventional, FHA, and VA loans, understand how a brokerage operates, and prefer structure over fire drills, this could be a great fit.

👉 Interested or know someone who would be a strong match?
Reply to this email or reach out directly. Discretion respected.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 January 6th, 202

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

🌍 Venezuela and Market Reaction

• 🛢 Headlines around Venezuela briefly lifted geopolitical risk, mainly tied to potential oil supply disruptions.

• 📉 So far, bonds have stayed calm, suggesting markets see this as noise, not a supply shock.

• 🏦 When oil spikes, inflation fears usually push bond yields higher, which can pressure mortgage rates. That has not happened yet.

• 🧭 For now, mortgage rates remain driven far more by U.S. labor and inflation data than international headlines.

The big picture

• 🟢 Mortgage rates are opening 2026 largely unchanged, extending a stretch of stability that now spans roughly four months.

• 📊 The 10-year Treasury remains range-bound, which continues to limit day-to-day volatility in mortgage pricing.

• 🏡 This is one of the calmest rate environments we have seen in some time, despite a busy economic calendar.

What we are watching

• 👀 Labor data and housing reports later this week could create short-term movement, but nothing currently points to a breakout.

• ⚠️ January inflation resets can add noise, though the bond market appears prepared for it.

• 🧭 Until proven otherwise, rates remain in a holding pattern, not a new trend.

Realtor takeaway

• 📌 Rate stability makes it easier to keep clients focused on price, negotiations, and timing, rather than rate fear.

• 📌 Predictable payments reduce last-minute surprises during escrow.

• 📌 Early 2026 conditions are more supportive of deal flow than headlines might suggest.

TECHNICALS
📈 Pending Home Sales Jump in November

Housing data closed out the year on a stronger note than expected. Buyer activity improved, home prices showed early signs of re-accelerating, and the labor market stayed steady despite seasonal noise.

• Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% month over month, the strongest reading in nearly three years

• Contract signings were also up 2.6% year over year

• This typically leads closed sales by 30–60 days

Why this matters for Realtors:
🟢 This supports stronger closings in January and February
🟢 Buyers are clearly re-engaging as affordability stabilizes
🟢 Momentum heading into the spring selling season looks healthier than expected

👷‍♂️ Unemployment Claims Stay Low

• Initial claims fell to 199,000, below expectations

• Continuing claims also declined to 1.866 million

• Seasonal timing around the holidays likely played a role

Why this matters for Realtors:
🟢 Job stability supports buyer confidence
🟢 No signs yet of labor stress that would pressure home prices
🟢 The consumer remains resilient heading into 2026

👀 What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday: Job Openings and ADP private payrolls

• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims

• Friday: Full employment report including payrolls and unemployment rate

• Delayed new home construction data for September and October also drops Friday

These reports will heavily influence bond markets and rate sentiment early in the year.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 180-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

🌍 Venezuela and Market Reaction

• 🛢 Headlines around Venezuela briefly lifted geopolitical risk, mainly tied to potential oil supply disruptions.

• 📉 So far, bonds have stayed calm, suggesting markets see this as noise, not a supply shock.

• 🏦 When oil spikes, inflation fears usually push bond yields higher, which can pressure mortgage rates. That has not happened yet.

• 🧭 For now, mortgage rates remain driven far more by U.S. labor and inflation data than international headlines.

The big picture

• 🟢 Mortgage rates are opening 2026 largely unchanged, extending a stretch of stability that now spans roughly four months.

• 📊 The 10-year Treasury remains range-bound, which continues to limit day-to-day volatility in mortgage pricing.

• 🏡 This is one of the calmest rate environments we have seen in some time, despite a busy economic calendar.

What we are watching

• 👀 Labor data and housing reports later this week could create short-term movement, but nothing currently points to a breakout.

• ⚠️ January inflation resets can add noise, though the bond market appears prepared for it.

• 🧭 Until proven otherwise, rates remain in a holding pattern, not a new trend.

Realtor takeaway

• 📌 Rate stability makes it easier to keep clients focused on price, negotiations, and timing, rather than rate fear.

• 📌 Predictable payments reduce last-minute surprises during escrow.

• 📌 Early 2026 conditions are more supportive of deal flow than headlines might suggest.

Issue 139 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

This will be the last GTG Weekly of 2025. We will return to our usual publishing schedule on Tuesday, January 6th, 2026.

The Fed delivered another rate cut last week, but mortgage rates barely moved. That might feel strange if you remember earlier cuts this year, when rates reacted quickly.

This time is different. Markets had already priced in the move, and lenders are waiting on clearer inflation and jobs data before making adjustments. For now, rates are steady, not improving, but importantly, not getting worse either.

Personal Note:
We had the GTG Financial company Christmas party on Friday, and it was a really nice event, even though a few people had their flights canceled just 30 minutes before they were supposed to board.

We also held GTG Game Day, and several of the team enjoyed a little Sonoma County wine tasting ahead of dinner.

I wish everyone could have made it, but we also understand how challenging the holidays can be. I’m incredibly grateful for the people who continue to work here with us and help homeowners achieve their goals every day.

As we put 2025 behind us, it’s helpful to reflect on everything that happened this year and how it will shape the future of the company.

I’m confident that 2026 is going to be a phenomenal year for GTG, and we’re incredibly excited for things right around the corner!

Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!

Game Day!

The team enjoying dinner together!

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• 🤝 INDUSTRY - We’re hiring a Mortgage Processor… who do you know?

• ↔️ RATES - Keeping the trend of not rocking the boat.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Rates hold in the face of Fed Cut.

INDUSTRY
We’re Hiring: Corporate Mortgage Processor

We are adding a Corporate Mortgage Processor to the GTG Financial team located here in Santa Rosa, CA. This could become a hybrid or full-remote position.

This is not an entry-level role, and it is not a high-chaos environment. We are looking for someone who takes ownership of files, communicates clearly, and takes pride in submitting clean, well-documented loans.

GTG Operations waiting for their next team mate…

If you have strong experience with Conventional, FHA, and VA loans, understand how a brokerage operates, and prefer structure over fire drills, this could be a great fit.

👉 Interested or know someone who would be a strong match?
Reply to this email or reach out directly. Discretion respected.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 December 16th, 2025

10 Year T-Note 90-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

🟢 Rates are stable
Mortgage pricing has held steady, even with recent movement in the 10-year Treasury. Lenders are waiting on inflation and jobs data before making changes.

📊 Stability helps confidence
When rates stop moving higher, buyers re-engage. This type of calm is often what brings sidelined demand back into the market.

⏱ A favorable window
Stable pricing gives buyers and sellers clarity right now, especially in a season with limited inventory.

🔍 Bottom line
Rates are not falling yet, but stability is a win. Calm periods like this often set the stage for the next positive move.

TECHNICALS
Rates Hold Steady After 3rd Fed Cut 

Mortgage rates finished last week largely unchanged, even after the Fed delivered its third 25 bp rate cut of the year (to the Fed Funds rate, not mortgage rates).

📄 The Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate again, but mortgage rates continue to follow the 10-year Treasury, not Fed policy directly. The 10-year tested resistance near 4.20% and failed to break higher, keeping lender pricing stable.

🏁 Mortgage bonds remain range-bound as lenders wait for clean inflation and jobs data after weeks of holiday and shutdown distortions.

🏁 Why this matters:
Rate stability matters more than cuts right now. A calm bond market gives buyers confidence to re-engage, even if rates are not falling meaningfully yet. This is how activity rebuilds before the next real move.

💡 Realtor Insight:
This is a useful talking point for hesitant buyers. Rates are not spiking, and volatility has cooled. If inflation stays contained and labor data softens, the next meaningful rate move is more likely down than up, but patience will be required.

Issue 138 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

This week kicked off with a surprise from Japan that sent global bond markets moving. Their central bank hinted it may finally pull back on years of heavy bond buying, which pushed yields higher overseas and spilled into our markets early Monday.

Photo by David Edelstein on Unsplash- Photo of Japan for attention, lol.

Under normal conditions, lenders would have already tightened pricing, but so far they’ve held steady, likely waiting to see what this week’s PCE inflation report shows.

With the Fed making its December rate cut decision next week, the market is bracing for a busy stretch that could shape how we close out the year.

Personal Note:
I wanted to change things up this year for Thanksgiving. So I decided to smoke a brisket. Knowing we were meeting mid-afternoon at the in-laws meant I needed to do an overnight smoke (12+hours).

I hadn’t done this in years and forgot that it was basically like having a newborn baby that keeps waking you up, lol.

All came out successful for dinner, and everyone loved it. Maybe a Traeger Smoker is in my future… You know, the easy bake oven of smoking meats.

Throwing on the brisket at 8:15 pm

Mid-smoke, babysitting at 2am.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Still stable. Bonds are taking a little beating this week.

• 💵 INDUSTRY - New loan limits released 11/25.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Home sales are UP (across the nation).

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 December 2nd, 2025

10 Year T-Note 90-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

🟢 Rates are flat for now
Pricing hasn’t reacted yet, even though the 10-year jumped this morning. Lenders usually wait to see if the move sticks before repricing.

📈 The 10 year is rising fast
Global bond moves, especially from Japan, pushed yields higher today. If those levels hold, mortgage rates often follow.

📌 Global shock from Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled they may hike rates this month, which sent Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in more than a decade.
Source: CNBC (Dec 1, 2025) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/01/us-treasury-yields-traders-increase-bets-on-fed-rate-cut-.html

⏳ This creates a short timing window
Buyers may have access to slightly better pricing today than they could later this week if lenders adjust.

🏡 Impact on buyers
Higher yields translate into higher payments, which can shrink approval amounts and slow decision-making for rate-sensitive clients.

🏠 Impact on sellers
Rising rates reduce the qualified-buyer pool. In a season with fewer listings already, a rate bump can slow activity even more.

🔎 Bottom line
This is one of those mornings where the bond market is moving first and mortgage rates may play catch-up. Staying ahead of it helps protect deals and set the right expectations.

TECHNICALS
Pending Home Sales Rise in October📄 

Pending Home Sales rose 1.9 percent from September to October, reaching the strongest pace of 2025, per NAR.

📉 Contract signings were down only 0.4 percent year over year, which is the closest we’ve been to positive territory all year.

🏁 Why this matters: Pending sales lead closings by 30 to 60 days. This jump suggests higher closed volume through December and January. Rates have improved, inventory is up, and buyers who were on the sidelines are stepping back in.

💡 Realtor Insight: Use this as a talking point during listing appointments. Sellers are no longer competing with the dead bottom of the market. Buyers are showing up again, and signed contracts confirm it.

What to Watch This Week

📊 ADP Jobs Report (Wed):
A fresh look at private-sector hiring. With continuing jobless claims trending higher, this will help confirm whether the labor market is cooling.

🧾 Jobless Claims (Thu):
Initial claims remain low, but continuing claims are elevated. Another increase would reinforce the slowdown narrative the Fed is watching closely.

🔥 September PCE Inflation (Fri):
The big one. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and has been delayed due to the shutdown. Any softening here supports the recent dip in rates and could add momentum heading into December.

💡 Realtor Insight:
This week is light on volume but heavy on meaning. All three reports tie directly into rate expectations. Softer data tends to support lower rates, which keeps buyers engaged even as we move deeper into the seasonal slowdown.

INTEREST RATES

10 Year T-Note 90-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

🟢 Rates are flat for now
Pricing hasn’t reacted yet, even though the 10-year jumped this morning. Lenders usually wait to see if the move sticks before repricing.

📈 The 10 year is rising fast
Global bond moves, especially from Japan, pushed yields higher today. If those levels hold, mortgage rates often follow.

📌 Global shock from Japan
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled they may hike rates this month, which sent Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels in more than a decade.
Source: CNBC (Dec 1, 2025) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/01/us-treasury-yields-traders-increase-bets-on-fed-rate-cut-.html

⏳ This creates a short timing window
Buyers may have access to slightly better pricing today than they could later this week if lenders adjust.

🏡 Impact on buyers
Higher yields translate into higher payments, which can shrink approval amounts and slow decision-making for rate-sensitive clients.

🏠 Impact on sellers
Rising rates reduce the qualified-buyer pool. In a season with fewer listings already, a rate bump can slow activity even more.

🔎 Bottom line
This is one of those mornings where the bond market is moving first and mortgage rates may play catch-up. Staying ahead of it helps protect deals and set the right expectations.

Issue 137 - Hello and Happy Tuesday.

The government is finally back open, data is starting to flow again, and the market is trying to get its footing after weeks of mixed signals. On top of that, the new 2026 loan limits were just announced, giving buyers a little more room to work with as we head into the slower holiday stretch.

Some will see this season as fewer listings and less momentum. Others will see opportunity in lower competition and expanding loan limits. It all depends which side of the fence your clients stand on.

Personal Note:
Jamie and I were able to create a long weekend and getaway for her 40th in beautiful Calistoga, CA, in our neighboring Napa Valley.

We had some good wine, great food, and a super relaxing reset together as we head into the holidays. I know it sounds mushy, but I want to recognize Jamie here… I cannot accomplish half of what I do in my career without her continued support. She is my rock!

Rode our bikes from Calistoga to the famous Napa sign.

Natural mineral pool, 100 degrees!

Arriving at Indian Springs resort

Only about 35-40 minutes from home base in Santa Rosa.

TLDR (Too Long Didn’t Read) Summary

• ↔️ RATES - Still stable. Starting a trend(?)

• 💵 INDUSTRY - New loan limits released 11/25.

• 📊 TECHNICALS - Mixed data.

INTEREST RATES
Rates 📢 November 25th, 2025

10 Year T-Note 90-day snapshot

Rate data as of morning of publication. Unless noted otherwise, all scenarios are assuming 30 Year-Fixed mortgage, Purchase or R/T Refinance. No origination points charged, 780 FICO score, and 20% down payment. Provided for consumer education only and does not serve as a binding offer to extend lending. Payment period, interest rate, APR, and other terms subject to income, asset, and credit profile qualification. Provided courtesy of GTG Financial, Inc. NMLS 1595076. Equal housing opportunity. www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

💡 Why This Matters

📅 A flood of data is finally coming
With the government reopened, key reports like CPI, PCE, jobs, and QCEW are all stacking up in the days leading into the December 10 Fed meeting. Traders will finally have something real to trade on after weeks of blind guessing.

📉 We may be watching the same pattern repeat
Before the last two Fed cuts, bonds dropped early as markets baked in the cut, then reacted again after the announcement. This current slide in the 10-year looks very similar. The question is whether the Fed will follow the script again.

⌛ But this time feels different
Because the shutdown delayed so much economic data, the Fed will walk into this meeting without the full picture. That raises more uncertainty than the last few cuts and is why this decision is the most debated one of the cycle.

🎯 Realtor Insight
If rates drift lower into December, buyers will get a cleaner path to shop with confidence. But the reaction after the Fed meeting could create a quick window of opportunity. Keep active buyers close and be ready to run numbers fast.

TECHNICALS
Mixed Jobs Data

Will the September Jobs Report Lead to a Fed Pause? 🧭

September added 119,000 jobs, beating the 50,000 forecast. But revisions to July and August pulled earlier numbers down, leaving August with a small 4,000 job loss. The unemployment rate also moved from 4.3 percent to 4.4 percent.

The bigger issue is timing. Because of the shutdown, the October jobs report is incomplete and will not include an unemployment rate. The full November report will not come out until December 16, which is after the Fed meets on December 9 to 10.

Powell and several Fed members have said repeatedly that another December rate cut is not guaranteed. With mixed jobs data and no new unemployment update before the meeting, the odds of a pause are rising.

Why this matters for real estate
📉 A Fed pause may keep mortgage rates from dropping quickly.
📅 Limited data means markets stay choppy until mid December.
🏠 Buyers waiting for confirmation of lower rates may stay on the sidelines a bit longer.

Jobless Claims Point to Slower Hiring 💼

Initial jobless claims stayed between 220,000 and 235,000 in October and November. Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million every week, most recently at 1.974 million.

What this means
High continuing claims tell us people are taking longer to find new jobs. That is a sign of a cooling labor market.

Realtor Insight
⚠️ Cooler job markets can slow buyer confidence, but they also help ease inflation, which supports lower mortgage rates over time.

What to Look for This Week 📅

Tuesday brings several important releases:
📊 September wholesale inflation
🛍️ September retail sales
🏠 Case Shiller home price data
🏘️ FHFA home price index
📝 Pending Home Sales from NAR

These updates will help shape expectations going into the December Fed meeting.

INDUSTRY
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) 2026 Conforming Loan Limit Update

🔍 What’s New

The FHFA has announced the baseline conforming loan limit for one-unit properties in most of the U.S. will rise to $832,750 for 2026. FHFA.gov

In high-cost counties, the ceiling limit is now set at $1,249,125 (which is 150 % of the $832,750 baseline). FHFA.gov

📊 Why This Matters for Buyers & Sellers

For real estate agents working with buyers and sellers, this change means more potential purchasing power for clients using conventional loans, thanks to the higher conforming limit.

Example:

Calculations: Purchase Price = Loan Limit ÷ (1 – Down Payment %).

Thus, a buyer who previously maxed out at about ~$831k with 3% down now can look at ~$861k. That’s meaningful in many markets.

📌 Realtor Insight

🎯 Takeaway: Leverage this higher limit in conversations with clients. Buyers who thought they were boxed in at the previous cap may now qualify for a slightly higher price. For sellers, this opens a slightly broader pool of conforming-loan buyers (vs jumbo).

🏠 Heads-Up for California Markets

Note: The announced baseline of $832,750 applies broadly. The updated specific limits for high-cost counties (such as Sonoma County, San Diego County, and much of the Bay Area / Southern CA region) will be released soon and covered by us.