Cryptotwits

So Robinhood Just Launched It's Own Pump.fun... 🦄

Jonathan Morgan — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

So Robinhood Just Launched It's Own Pump.fun... 🦄

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers:

STOCKTWITS
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DEFI
Everybody Into the Pool 😶

$UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) built a memecoin launchpad. On $HOOD ( ▲ 3.72% ) . 🤔

I guess you could say there were ‘signs’.Robinhood Chain went public in July with Uniswap as its primary AMM, and within weeks it had skewed toward retail and memecoin activity.

So this new launch pad isn’t much of a surprise. And, to their credit, their version of ‘pumpfun’ is a lot ‘better’:

Liquidity sits in a protocol-held pool the creator can't pull.
Creator buys land in the same block as launch, so the dev can't front-run their own MEV snipers.
No launchpad fee. Just the standard 0.25% v4 LP fee, autocompounding into the locked position, with an optional 0.05% for creators - 20% of the take, the other 80% growing liquidity.
Crowd Launch runs a four-hour bid window with TWAP fill and a $10k FDV floor that refunds if it whiffs.

None of which changes what comes out the other end. Roughly 6,000 tokens minted on day one.

But this is the world we live in. A chain (Robinhood Chain) built to tokenize equities spent its first month as a slot floor. Uniswap looked at that and opened a second casino across the street, with cheaper drinks. 🍸️

NEWS
The Coldcard Stuff - What You Need To Know 🧠

I finally have some space and time to toss this in here. A number of you reached out with requests to write something up about it, so here goes 🖋️:

Somewhere in someone’s desk drawer, or a safe, or a fireproof box in a closet, sits a small plastic slab with a numeric keypad and a screen the size of a matchbook. It never touches the internet. Coldcard (built by Coinkite) doesn't hold your $BTC ( ▲ 1.1% ) , they stay on the blockchain like everyone else's - it holds the seed phrase, the string of random words that proves the coins are yours.

Generate that seed from the Coldcard offline, keep it offline, sign transactions offline, and there is no attack surface. No exchange to collapse. No custodian to freeze you. That was the promise.

The way the random words were generated is what made this a nightmare.

So What Broke?

A March 2021 commit (change in the code) changed how Coldcard built a seed. The device skipped its dedicated hardware randomness chip and used a predictable software substitute instead.
Seeds became enumerable. Not "supercomputer for a decade" guessable - guessable this week, with a script and patience.
The code lives in a library called libngu, published on GitHub under a pseudonymous account.

What’s The Damage?

Draining started July 30. Galaxy Research confirmed three waves plus smaller incidents; if the suspected fourth holds, the tally runs to roughly 2,055 BTC across about 7,300 addresses.
One sweep took 1,196 addresses for 1,083 BTC inside 41 minutes.
No attribution yet. Not North Korea, not anybody.
Nobody was phished. The device did exactly what it was built to do. Sort of.

The Worst Part: Someone Pointed It Out 14 Months Ago

James O'Beirne posted this on August 4:

Twitter tweet

He audited the firmware in May 2025 trying to pin down where the RNG actually sourced from, and the trail ran back to libngu - a six-star GitHub repo maintained by one pseudonymous developer.

He filed a report. Said he doubted the true RNG was in use and flagged the hardcoded yasmarang constants as sloppy. His recommendation was to rip it out. The response he says he got: the team told him that if something were wrong, "we'd already know about it by now."

Novak has since floated that AI may have surfaced the bug. Researchers keep pointing at ordinary human engineering error. A reply under O'Beirne's post claims somebody raised the same randomness question in a Telegram group back in 2021.

Par For The Course

There’s nothing really funny about this, but if you’re looking for one, this might be it: Coinkite emailed buyers going back to 2019 to warn them, which is how customers learned the company still had purchase emails despite a stated 90-day retention window. Bad week to discover the privacy company kept a list.

Oh, and no compensation offered. And that’s where we’re currently at. 😶

NEWS
No, Solana’s Not Really Speeding Up Disinflation 🙅

There's a proposal on $SOL ( ▲ 0.7% ) ’s official forum to cut how fast Solana prints new SOL. SIMD-0550 changes the disinflation rate goes from -15% to -30%. Inflation is at 3.82% today and headed to a permanent floor of 1.5% either way. This just gets there in 2.8 years instead of 5.7, and roughly 18.9 million SOL never gets minted along the way. ⛏️

But there’s an issue - the inflation schedule assumes 180 epochs a year. That comes from the 400ms slot target, which works out to about two days per epoch. Except that's not how it went. Epochs dragged through 2021, 2022, 2023. Only since epoch 718 has the network reliably hit the two-day mark.

Run the actual epoch durations against the intended clock and Solana is 276 days behind schedule. So… basically there’s nine months of emissions that were never supposed to still be popping out that are still going out the door.

Which makes "double disinflation" a strange way to describe this. The terminal rate isn't moving. Same 1.5%, same destination. The curve slipped because the chain ran slow, and this pulls it back toward where the design said it should have been. 🤷

NEWS
Speaking Of Proposals: NEAR Wants A Sovereign Wealth Fund 💰️

The idea: take the protocol's roughly 30 million $NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% ) treasury, route protocol revenue into it, buy NEAR with that revenue, and put the stash to work generating yield. ➗

A slice of that yield pays for network security and public goods - the Validator Support Program, MPC providers, whatever else qualifies. Principal stays intact.

And there’s a good point about just burning (eliminating supply, permanently). Polosukhin (the guy who made the proposal) says burns just offset inflation temporarily, and if you turn inflation off entirely, you've left the ecosystem with no future funding at all. Instead, put 1% into a lending protocol at 5% and it keeps working.

The goal he (Polosukhin) floats is NEAR eventually going to a fixed supply, with the sovereign fund covering security costs that inflation currently pays for. That’s a big if. Sovereign funds work because oil revenue is real and the fund holds assets that aren't oil. This one holds the same token it's trying to support. 🧠

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

The SEC finally gave liquid staking some breathing room - guidance said certain liquid staking receipts like stETH are not securities.
Institutions, exchanges, fintech apps, and brokerages suddenly had one less legal excuse to avoid staking products.
A Cardano scammer got traced back toward Coinbase-linked wallets - Xerberus’ SIREN tool mapped a 20K SNEK/ADA heist through mule wallets and toward Coinbase Australia-linked enterprise wallets.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

Crypto bounced hard after the prior day’s slaughter - most assets recovered a big chunk, or all, of the previous day’s losses.
The altcoin market excluding ETH was beating the total crypto market cap, and the altcoin market cap was positive for the week while the broader market was still red.
Ronin got robbed again - another $9.8M bridge hit.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 6

1284 - Genoa destroyed Pisa’s fleet at the Battle of Meloria, ending Pisa as a major Mediterranean power.
1538 - Spanish conquistadors founded Bogotá in present-day Colombia.
1661 - The Netherlands surrendered its claim to Brazil in exchange for Portuguese money.
1777 - Patriots and Loyalists ambushed each other at Oriskany, one of the American Revolution’s bloodiest battles.
1806 - Emperor Francis II dissolved the Holy Roman Empire after roughly 1,000 years.
1825 - Bolivia declared independence from Spain and named itself after Simón Bolívar.
1846 - The Donner Party encountered its first major delay on a disastrous shortcut that eventually left survivors eating the dead.
1945 - The United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, killing tens of thousands instantly.
1962 - Jamaica gained independence after more than 300 years of British rule.
1965 - Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act, outlawing racial barriers designed to block Black voters.
1991 - Tim Berners-Lee publicly announced the World Wide Web and provided access to its first website.
2012 - NASA’s Curiosity rover survived its “seven minutes of terror” and landed safely on Mars.

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Terms & Conditions 📝

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Traders Eyeing These Moves Like A Yard Sale Rolex ⌚️

Jonathan Morgan — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 21:32:02 +0000

Presented by

OVERVIEW

Traders Eyeing These Moves Like A Yard Sale Rolex ⌚️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So Many Things In The Cloud ☁️

For those of you who don’t know, the Cloud is probably the most distinctive part of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. The Cloud is that big (sometimes small) blob of red or green shaded mess on the chart. 📈

BTCUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

Consequently, the Cloud is also one of (if not the most) the most important components in Ichimoku. All you need to know about the Cloud is it’s bad. It’s evil. It’s like sugar free Haribo gummy bears. Oh, they taste delish, but those cute little bastards are big big liars and they make the cyclosporiasis parasite feel like a belly rub.

My point is: the Cloud is bad. Everything that is bad in the word exists inside the Cloud. Here is some evidence I made up. Just look at the villainy inside of it:

Click to enlarge

The Cloud represents pain, misery, indecision, and just bad yucky feelings. It’s represented by fake breakouts/breakdowns, stagnant boring ranges, and just all around suck.

When you see something inside the Cloud, you just give it a passing nod and click on something else on your watchlist. Don’t engage with it. Don’t be polite. Don’t shake it’s hand or offer to carry its groceries. That’s how it gets you.

But you do want to glance at it close enough and long enough to know if something is getting ready to move out of the Cloud - because that’s important. That’s very important. Because some of the biggest and sustained moves occur after leaving the Cloud.

$BTC ( ▲ 1.1% )

BTCUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

This is Bitcoin’s 18th day inside the Cloud on the daily chart. And it’s pretty much dead center of the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span B) and the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A). This is one you just walk away from.

$LINK ( ▲ 1.6% )

LINKUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

Chainlink, on the other hand, while it’s inside the Cloud, is showing some signs that it might try to get away from the misery it’s currently in. A daily close above the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span B, $8.52) would confirm and Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout, but if that doesn’t happen over the next few days and if the breakout doesn’t sustain, the Chikou Span might face resistance against the Cloud, too. Something to watch.

$SOL ( ▲ 0.7% )

SOLUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

Unless something dramatic shifts/changes here, Solana’s daily chart will close inside the Cloud after trading below the Cloud over the past week. And the Cloud itself is relatively thin - thin Clouds represent weakness, it’s much easier for price to move though and close above/below them.

One positive Solana has going for it is, despite the recent confirmation of an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout on July 29, the follow through has been muted. Bears have been unable or unwilling to really capitalize on that technical weakness - which could be a big trap. Will be fun to watch. 👀

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X nothign special here.. 58K was bottom and i think will be sideways for a few month before next move....

Market ATH and this should have been pumped by market... But NOT READY ...
— Etrading (@Etrading)
3:11 PM • Aug 5, 2026

NEWS
Ratings Agency Makes A Stablecoin Naughty & Nice List 📜

S&P Global Ratings updated its Stablecoin Stability Assessments this week. Six of the 11 stablecoins covered scored adequate or better on ability to hold their peg. Two got downgraded over the past three quarters. 😱

The nice list, all rated 2 (strong): USDC, Euro Coin, Global Dollar, and Paxos USD.
Adequate at 3: Gemini USD, which slipped a notch from strong, and EUR Convertible.
Constrained at 4: First Digital USD and Sky Dollar/DAI.
The naughty list, Weak at 5: TrueUSD, Ethena's USDe, and - the headline downgrade - Tether, which dropped from 4 to 5 in November.

USDT is the largest stablecoin on earth and S&P has it in the same bucket as TrueUSD - a token whose reserves allegedly went into a Dubai trade finance operation, got frozen by a Dubai court, are the subject of a Hong Kong fraud suit, and whose peg has been propped up by a personal loan from Justin Sun. 🤦

NEWS
Your Tokenized Stonks Get To Vote ☑️

Broadridge and Payward Services (Kraken’s parent) are wiring proxy voting into xStocks. Eligible holders will authenticate to ProxyVote.com with a Web3 login, read the proxy materials for the underlying shares, and submit voting preferences. Basically the same infrastructure that handles proxy for the traditional side of the market, pointed at tokens. 👍️

I think a lot of us thought this was something that would get kicked down the road for a while before there was a fix - nice to see something happening fast and working. At least I think it works. That’s what the press release says at least. Anyway.

Up to now, with tokenized stocks, you got price exposure and nothing else. It tracked the stock, you could trade it at 3am, and when the company held its annual meeting you sat there like a guy holding a screenshot of a share certificate. Economic interest without any of the rights that make it ownership.

How many holders bother voting is a different question. Retail turnout in traditional proxy is dismal and there's no reason to think degens will be better. But hey, at least you now have the option of not voting like normal. 👏

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ADA.X abt 200,000 ADA 100% staked ready to get some more for the impending run
— Spoti (@OldSchoolSwinger)
1:50 PM • Aug 5, 2026

STOCKTWITS
Using The Stocktwits MCP 👀

The Stocktwits MCP brings live market sentiment, message volume, trending symbols, and investor conversation directly into ChatGPT, Claude, Codex, Cursor, and other compatible AI agents. 🤖

If you’re not using our MCP, you’re missing out on something insanely useful and powerful. Want to know what Stocktwits people are talking about the most? Want to compare $NVDA ( ▲ 1.38% ) and $AMD ( ▲ 1.5% ) to find out which is more bullish or bearish?

Some prompt ideas:

What’s the Stocktwits crowd loudest about right now?
Compare BTC, ETH, and SOL. Where is crypto sentiment heating up fastest?
Sweep my watchlist for unusual sentiment or message-volume moves.
How has TSLA sentiment changed over the past month?

I asked mine to show me the 24-hour battle between bulls and bears on $BTC ( ▲ 1.1% ) , but to show it to me as a battle between stick figure armies and make a gif out of it:

Click to enlarge

That’s just a funny and fun application. I also like to use it for finding setups that haven’t happened yet, using data you can only get from Stocktwits.

Example I used in Claude: give me the top 5 stock tickers that have a rising sentiment score over the past 10 sessions but have a relatively flat volume score

And here’s what it gave me:

Click to enlarge

No dashboard safari. No 17 open tabs. Just ask your agent what traders are watching, saying, and feeling.

Connect the Stocktwits MCP and put live market intelligence inside your AI. 👇️

Connect the Stocktwits MCP and put live market intelligence inside your AI.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

Midnight’s Glacier Drop went live - 24B NIGHT tokens were up for grabs, with a 60-day claim window and eligibility across ADA, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, AVAX, and BAT.
The on-chain section was HODL Waves - BTC looked bearish short-term but easing, ETH was neutral-to-slightly bullish, JASMY and OP showed accumulation, and LTC looked shockingly bullish as holders stopped moving coins.
The overall read leaned cautiously bullish - except BTC, where nearly $10B in old Satoshi-era wallets cashing out made the picture weirder than usual.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

The market got smoked, then clawed back a chunk of the damage.
Liquidations were ugly - about $1.2B in leveraged crypto positions got wiped over 24 hours, mostly from the long side.
BlackRock and Fidelity held firm - on-chain reads suggested they had not sold Bitcoin during the panic, and may have even added.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 5

642 - King Oswald of Northumbria was killed, dismembered and displayed after the Battle of Maserfield.
910 - English forces crushed the last major Viking army to raid from the Severn River.
1305 - Scottish resistance leader William Wallace was captured near Glasgow and later executed.
1583 - Humphrey Gilbert claimed Newfoundland for England, establishing its first overseas colony.
1772 - Russia, Prussia and Austria began carving up Poland in the First Partition.
1861 - Abraham Lincoln signed America’s first federal income tax - 3% on incomes above $800.
1914 - Germany attacked Liège, opening World War I’s first major battle.
1914 - Cleveland installed the first electric traffic signal, complete with red and green lights.
1926 - Harry Houdini spent 91 minutes underwater inside a sealed coffin and emerged alive.
1962 - Marilyn Monroe was found dead in her Los Angeles home at age 36.
1981 - Ronald Reagan fired 11,359 striking air-traffic controllers.
2010 - A Chilean mine collapsed, trapping 33 men 2,257 feet underground. All survived 69 days before rescue.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Crypto Gets The Rescue Dog Treatment - Loved, Fed, Watched For Sudden Movements 😶

Jonathan Morgan — Tue, 04 Aug 2026 21:34:09 +0000

OVERVIEW

Crypto Gets The Rescue Dog Treatment - Loved, Fed, Watched For Sudden Movements 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) , $KTA ( ▲ 0.1% ) , $XCN ( ▼ 0.4% ) , $TAO ( ▼ 0.7% ) , and $PI ( ▼ 4.3% )

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard 📇

The On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard was something I created late last year because I wanted to know: Ok, what are some of the conditions a ticker previously sat in before things started to accumulate and then turn into a new leg higher? 🤔

Very simply, there’s a composite rating given between 0 and 6. If the aggregate reading is near 0, there’s very little evidence of a bottom. If it’s near 6, there’s a boat load of things that look like a bottom is developing or is in.

These are the pieces of data that make up the scorecard:

Holder Resolve - what share of the supply has moved in the past year? If it drops, long-term hodlers have stopped selling.
Whale Bid - measures if the largest wallets are adding or removing to their stash.
Mid-Tier Accumulation - checks wallets that have $100k or more worth in their wallets and if that value is rising or falling (relative to what’s in there and age, it’s a little complicated MVRV math stuff).
Transactional Cheapness - how much value the network is moving relative to what hodlers paid.
Valuation Reset - how far the market is trading below what the average holders paid.
Drawdown Depth - this just measures how far price is from the prior cycle high.

The net result of all that is, I think, I a fairly good representation of how things are sitting. It’s not a prediction, just a measurement. 🧠

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Cardano, XRP, Uniswap, & Dogecoin 🔢

$ADA ( ▲ 4.6% )

Wallets holding 1M+ ADA just completed an 8.5-year round trip - back within a rounding error of their December 2017 holdings, the second-highest level in my data, after adding 2.6% this quarter.

New wallet creation sits in the bottom fifth of the record, the $100K crowd shed a third of its members this quarter, and volume is expensive. Holders are 50% underwater, 94% off the high, and going dormant. Slightly bullish.

$XRP ( ▼ 1.1% )

Wallets holding 1M+ XRP sit at twelve-year lows after shedding 16 billion coins. Escrow mechanics share the blame, but the direction never changed. Meanwhile RVT just compressed 55% in a month to nearly the cheapest reading since 2014.

Holders 54% underwater, price 71% off last July's high. The $100K wallet count is down 72% from its 2025 peak. Neutral, leaning constructive.

$UNI ( ▲ 0.9% )

Out of all the hodlers of the tickers we’re looking at today, Uniswap holders have the deepest discount of being 63% underwater. New wallet creation is down 95%. The 1M+ UNI wallets peaked in October 2020 and have drifted lower ever since.

BUT… the $100K crowd grew 12% this month and 10% on the quarter. Real money walking into a dead room and buying. Slightly bullish.

$DOGE ( ▲ 1.4% )

So, this is kind of funny: Wallets holding 1M+ DOGE own more than at any point (well, since at least November 2017) in it’s history. Up 43%, some 42 billion Doge. through a 91% collapse.

Holders have the discipline of a pension fund. The rest is just a dead room: volume-to-valuation at the 98th percentile, the $100K wallet count down 39% this quarter, new arrivals scarce. Holders 44% underwater. Slightly bullish.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X Expect a big sell off.
To much uncertainty and deficit, clarity fail, world economic set backs.
Not a good time to be optimistic in.
— JK Bull Market Is coming (@AstroStockist)
10:15 AM • Aug 4, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Ethereum, Chainlink, Aave, & Bitcoin 🔢

$ETH ( ▲ 1.5% )

Two decade-extremes printed the same week. One-year active supply hit 36.0% - the lowest in ten years of data. Holders have never been this still. And wallets holding 100K+ ETH hit their lowest level since 2016, down 62%, though staking migration does part of that work.

New wallet creation runs at the 92nd percentile - bull-market foot traffic into a 62% drawdown. The catch: holders are only 10% underwater. By capitulation standards, a stubbed toe. Neutral.

$LINK ( ▲ 1.6% )

Holders 47% underwater, price 85% below the May 2021 high, both locked in long enough to qualify as climate. Volume sits at the 87th percentile of RVT readings - drought. One mild positive: the $100K wallet count ticked up 2% this month after a 14% quarterly slide. Neutral, leaning gray.

$AAVE ( ▲ 1.8% )

Cheap and beaten down - 87% off the 2021 high, holders a third underwater. That's the whole highlight reel. Wallets holding 100K+ AAVE have withdrawn 40% of their holdings since October 2020 and sit near the bottom of the record, with one small uptick this month.

Holder activity is churning near the top of its range instead of settling. And the mid-tier surge from earlier this summer flatlined - dead even on the quarter. Neutral.

$BTC ( ▲ 1.1% )

The good news: wallets holding 1,000+ BTC added 1.9% this quarter and now hold 5.7% more than in June 2018. The big money is buying the drawdown. The market sits 20% above cost basis - every prior cycle low printed at or below.

RVT hit 170, the worst volume-to-valuation reading in eight years. The $100K wallet count halved since October. And new wallets sit at the 6th percentile - $64K Bitcoin onboarding 2018 quantities at 10x the price. Slightly bearish.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ADA.X just curious what's everyone's average? mines 48
— john Mansour (@jmansour08)
5:44 AM • Aug 4, 2026

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

Crypto added more than $100B back to market cap.
BTC ETFs pulled in about $5.6B over the past 30 days, while ETH ETFs took in about $5.5B and saw AUM double to roughly $21B.
CrediX got wrecked for $4.5M - a compromised admin role allegedly let an attacker mint unbacked stablecoins, yank real collateral, and bridge funds from Sonic to Ethereum.
Deepfake voice tools, fake advisory gigs, malware files, and a shady NPM package with 1,500+ downloads showed scammers no longer need to be smart, just “AI-enabled,” which is society’s new lowest bar.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 4

70 - Roman forces destroyed Jerusalem’s Second Temple during the city’s brutal siege.
367 - Roman emperor Valentinian I named his 8-year-old son Gratian co-emperor
1265 - Simon de Montfort was killed and mutilated at the Battle of Evesham, crushing England’s baronial rebellion.
1578 - Three kings died at the Battle of Alcácer Quibir, triggering Portugal’s succession crisis and eventual takeover by Spain.
1704 - Anglo-Dutch forces captured Gibraltar, which Britain still controls.
1790 - George Washington authorized 10 revenue cutters, creating the future U.S. Coast Guard.
1914 - Britain declared war on Germany after German troops invaded neutral Belgium.
1916 - The U.S. agreed to purchase the Danish West Indies for $25 million in gold. They became the U.S. Virgin Islands.
1964 - The bodies of murdered civil-rights workers Chaney, Goodman and Schwerner were found in Mississippi.
1977 - President Jimmy Carter created the U.S. Department of Energy.
2020 - Nearly 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut, killing over 200 and injuring more than 7,000.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Hope And Fear Now Sharing Custody Of The Market On Alternating Days 🎭️

Jonathan Morgan — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Hope And Fear Now Sharing Custody Of The Market On Alternating Days 🎭️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) , $BNB ( ▼ 0.1% ) , $XRP ( ▼ 1.1% ) , $HYPE ( ▲ 2.4% ) , and $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% )

NEWS
BlackRock Ships Two More Tokenized Cash Products Into The Wreckage 🚢

It’s no lie that the crypto market has spent the better part of a year in Sucksville. Price action has been ugly. BlackRock does not appear to have noticed. 🤷

They just launched two tokenized money market products today: $BSTBL ( 0.0% ) (BSTBL), a tokenized share class of an existing fund on Ethereum and $BRSRV ( 0.0% ) , a purpose-built tokenized money market fund for institutional crypto accounts with daily dividend reinvestment and multi-chain access.

Both hold cash, short T-bills, and overnight Treasury repo. Both are structured to qualify as eligible reserve assets for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. Which, at least to me, reads as the main target. No so much a bet on prices but a bet on who custodies the collateral behind every stablecoin that wants to stay compliant.

And BlackRock’s pockets are deep. BlackRock's cash management arm runs roughly $1.073 trillion. US money market funds hold north of $8.4 trillion. Against those numbers, whatever happened to your alt bag last quarter is a rounding error. 😯

One Shark Missed Billions… Another Saw This Coming

Imagine turning down Uber at a valuation of $10 million, only to watch it go public at over $80 billion.

That’s exactly what happened to Mark Cuban… a 799,900% return, gone.

But original Shark Tank investor Kevin Harrington built his career doing the opposite: spotting asymmetric opportunities before they go mainstream.

Like Uber turned vehicles into income-generating assets, Mode Mobile is turning smartphones into income streams.

They were named the #1 fastest-growing software company by Deloitte and have already helped their users earn and save over $1B.

Kevin Harrington invested early.

And at just $0.52/share, you can still get in before their potential IPO.

Secure shares at $0.52 while the pre-IPO window is still open.

^{Potential Uber return for Marc Cuban does not take into account dilution.}

^{The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period in 2023.}

^{Please read the offering circular at}^{invest.modemobile.com}^{. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A Offering.}

NEWS
NEAR Figured Out How to Bill You Without Billing You 🤯

This is kind of badass. 👀

NEAR launched Staking for NEAR AI, which simply means your staked NEAR rewards can convert into monthly compute credits that scale with the size of your stake. No card on file. No cloud account. Unstake and the principal comes back to your wallet. All 43 models on the platform, including Anthropic, OpenAI and Google, are accessible this way.

It’s not so much spending money but renting the yield. Honestly, this is one of the things you thinkg, ‘that’s obvious’ and then you also think, ‘why did this take so long to be a thing?’. It’s kind of crazy.

Also, most token utility use cases are just a payment with extra steps. This one takes the staking reward, which is real yield, and swaps it for a service you are probably using anyway.

Which means your capital/NEAR you’re staking is doing two jobs at once: securing the protocol/network and eliminating a monthly conversation you might have with your wife when she asks, ‘do we really need to pay $200 a month for this?’ whenever she looks at the credit card bill. 💳️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ADA.X i think the ai bubble is starting to pop with all the outrage on data centers. Thats why we are turning green. The next thing that would send this to the moon is if iran and us come to a agreement to somehow regulate oil with crypto, i know they have mentioned it. I don't know what would happen to the dollar if that were to happen though. Hopefully we all get rich cause the risk/reward for all this is incredibly high.
— tom franklin (@bunky31520)
11:37 AM • Aug 3, 2026

NEWS
Guy Kept The Seed Phrase From A Tutorial Video And Made $628k 🤦

Binance believes a former employee did something very, very naughty. 🤫

Twitter tweet

$BNB ( ▼ 0.1% ) says a former employee held onto a wallet he'd created while recording an educational video, generated a new private key off the old seed phrase after being let go, and used the address to launch a memecoin.

CZ even posted about it:

Twitter tweet

According to Lookonchain (man, they are so good) the token was ASTEROID. Four fresh wallets bought 796.7 million tokens right after deployment, 79.67% of supply, for roughly $10,000. He then sold 718.8 million for 1,103 BNB, about $638,000, netting an estimated $628,000.

We’ll keep you updated if something develops. Which means you and I will probably forget this incident ever happened. 🧠

NEWS
Bancor Has a Point About What An AMM Really Is 🫵

You know, it’s a shame that $BNT ( ▲ 0.3% ) doesn’t get more attention and credit in the crypto space, specifically in the DEX and DeFi space. They come out with some fantastic material. Case in point: their most recent blog post about Automated Market Makers (AMMs) vs. On-chain orderbooks. 📔

Bancor's project lead, Dr. Mark Richardson, makes this point: an AMM is a very specific subset of an orderbook that relies on explicit instructions to maintain itself. Not the natural shape of a DEX. Just one implementation of one, which happened to win and then got treated as, well, the only way to do it.

Bancor’s Carbon DeFi changes things up a little. Instead of makers dumping capital into a shared pool that prices everything off one invariant, each maker publishes their own executable curve - exact price or a continuous range, their budget, their direction. Buy side and sell side are separate orders that the maker can link or leave independent.

Fill happens at the quoted price (which is… how things are supposed to happen…). No slippage, no sandwich.

That thing called ‘Impermanent Loss’? It’s a big problem when a concentrated liquidity position approximating a limit order will sell your token on the way up and buy it right back on the retrace. Same capital, same curve, both directions.

A Carbon limit order fills and stays filled. Basically, no automatic sell low and buy higher (nope, I meant to write it that way) just to keep a liquidity pool balanced. What a relief.🤦

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X Bottom might be in fellas lol
— T (@Ducci)
3:28 PM • Aug 3, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🎮 Ontology Wants Better AI Judges For Games

Game AI is hard to grade with public leaderboards: models can overfit, while qualities like personality, fun, and long-horizon behavior still need human judgment. Ontology’s Proof of Judgement recruits verified gamers, attaching ONT ID, credentials, reputation, and selective disclosure to their evaluations without sending buyers personal data. Ontology.

🌎 Celo Adds Six Latin American Currencies to the Stablecoin Shelf

Ripio’s wFIAT stack is live on Celo with tokens tracking the Argentine peso, Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Colombian peso, Chilean peso, and Peruvian sol. Users get no-cost on- and off-ramps, while Textile FX opens wARS/USDT and wBRL/USDT trading from day one. Celo now supports 31 stablecoins, giving remittances and regional onchain FX something more useful than forcing every transaction through the dollar first. Celo.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🕸️ Pogun Makes Reputation Expensive To Fake

Anyone can create 10,000 Cardano credentials; Pogun’s idea is ensuring none inherit trust merely by getting spawned. Every loan records the borrower’s repayment history and the lender’s underwriting history, then lets trust decay and divide through downstream relationships, so Sybil wallets dilute influence instead of multiplying it. Kind of cool. Unlike Cardano’s price action (until recently at least). Cardano.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$QQQ$SPY$BTC.X $COIN$ETH.X BREAKING:
🇺🇸 US Senate haven't scheduled vote on the Crypto Clarity Act this week
Odds for approval this year dropped below 28% 4 days before summer recess
Sources report that Republicans and Democrats couldn't find agreement on ethics package
This is not good for markets...🤔🤔
— Mb (@EconomyEngine)
3:50 PM • Aug 3, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

⚽ Kayen Turns Liquid Staking Into a Four-Week Tournament

Stake CHZ, receive stCHZ, and its CHZ redemption value rises as rewards compound even though the wallet balance stays flat. Kayen’s August 3-31 campaign distributes 350,000 CHZ proportionally through five scoring routes: hold, provide liquidity, buy, migrate, or refer. Loyalty can lift the multiplier to 1.8x, but withdrawing over half or splitting wallets sends it back to 1.0x. Chiliz.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

⏱️ Hyperliquid Gives TWAP Orders More Adult Supervision

Hyperliquid’s on-chain TWAP orders can now wait for a trigger price, stop at a maximum buy price or minimum sell price, and run for up to seven days. Suborder timing adjusts dynamically from total size and duration, with 30 seconds still the floor. Minimum order size drops to $100 while each slice remains at least $10. Hyperliquid.

🛒 Pennysia Adds More Without Building Another Store

Pennysia already combines DEX, aggregator, and RFQ quotes inside one Ethereum marketplace; SODAX now extends selected routes beyond Ethereum, especially into non-EVM networks. A user states the trade once, then SODAX sources and settles across more than 20 networks and 120 assets behind the same interface. SODAX.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🏴 Wanchain Offers the NIGHT Thief a 10% Retirement Package

After the July 20 Cardano bridge exploit, Wanchain is offering the attacker a deal: return 90% of the stolen NIGHT by 12:00 UTC on August 6 and keep 10% as a white-hat bounty. In exchange, Wanchain says it will not pursue civil claims. Wanchain.

🦖 Tezos Would Like “Old” Removed From “Outdated”

Tezos is eight years into mainnet and nearly 12 years removed from its whitepaper, which qualifies as ancient under crypto’s fruit-fly calendar. They say age helps when software keeps evolving, with Tezos pursuing data availability, enshrined rollups, and Tezos X without abandoning decentralization. Fair distinction. Tezos.

⚙️ Sei Giga Starts Replacing the Engine While Driving

Sei’s proposed 6.6 release is the first mainnet step toward Giga’s 200,000 TPS target, introducing Eidos for storage and making Ares the default execution engine. Eidos separates EVM history from Cosmos state; Ares uses a new backend while the old engine catches unsupported transactions and checks results block by block. Sei.

OLD NEW
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 3

435 - Emperor Theodosius II exiled Nestorius during a theological fight that permanently split branches of Christianity
1460 - Scotland’s King James II died when one of his own cannons exploded beside him
1492 - Columbus left Spain with three ships
1527 - John Rut sent the earliest known English-language letter from North America
1778 - Milan’s La Scala opera house opened
1852 - Harvard beat Yale in America’s first intercollegiate sporting event - a rowing race
1900 - Harvey Firestone founded the tire company Firestone
1914 - Germany declared war on France, widening World War I
1936 - Jesse Owens won his first Berlin Olympics gold medal in front of Hitler’s Nazi regime
1949 - Two rival basketball leagues merged to create the NBA
1958 - The nuclear submarine Nautilus became the first vessel to travel beneath the North Pole
1960 - Niger gained independence from France
1977 - RadioShack introduced the TRS-80, helping drag personal computers into ordinary homes
1981 - Nearly 13,000 U.S. air traffic controllers went on strike
2004 - NASA launched MESSENGER, the first spacecraft designed to orbit Mercury

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 31

Jonathan Morgan — Sat, 01 Aug 2026 17:00:00 +0000

OVERVIEW

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 31

Welcome to the Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive for Week 31 of 2026! 📊

In this issue, we'll dive into the data to keep you informed about the progress of the overall crypto market and shine a spotlight on emerging and established trends.

What You’ll Find In The Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive has three main objectives:

Total and Altcoin caps, stamped with YTD moves and the gap to ATH.
Seven-layer market-cap recap (TMC ex-stables, ex-top-50, and five more flavors).
Crypto Index Performance covering 12 indices.
The Liquidation Station boards the train with 30-day totals plus a 7-day heatmap for maximum schadenfreude.
Market Heatmap, Social Volume Heatmap, Active Address Heatmap.
ETF scorecards for BTC and ETH still tracking 7- and 30-day flows.

So, without further delay, let's jump right into the data from week 31 and explore its intriguing insights! 🚀

CRYPTO
Crypto Market Cap Update

What is the broader trend within the crypto market? The simplest way to track this is by using three market cap charts. So let's see what we got. 🔭

*the price levels and performance values may be very different from what you read in your mailbox vs. what's happening in the live market. This is especially true when crypto faces a new bull or bear run.

Total Market Cap

All-Time High Close: $4.22 trillion
YTD: -26%
From ATH: -48%

Click to enlarge.

Altcoin Market Cap

All-Time High: $1.73 trillion
YTD: -26%
From ATH: -48%

Click to enlarge.

CRYPTOTWITS
Missed An Issue This Week? I Got Ya Right Here 👇️

Here’s this week’s Cryptotwits newsletters. That you probably read already. Maybe. Probably.

Monday - Crypto, Invented To Escape Central Banking, Now Waiting Fed Meeting 🤦

Tuesday - Watching Bread Mold Is More Exciting 🍞

Wednesday - Perp My Ride 🏎️

Thursday - It's Not Ethereum's Birthday 🎂

Friday - Tomorrow Is The First Day Of Awful-gust 😩

CRYPTO
Stocktwits Crypto Index RRG

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) help us visualize how a currency or sector performs compared to a benchmark - in this case, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Think of the four colored sectors as stages in a race:

Leading Quadrant (green) - You're a champ! 🏆 You're ahead of everyone else, and the crowd is cheering. But watch out; you might be overdoing it.
Weakening Quadrant (yellow) - You're slowing down 😓 and losing your lead. Maybe you're a bit demoralized because your biggest fan didn't show up. You're now in the middle of the pack.
Lagging Quadrant (red) - Disaster strikes! 😱 You're injured, exhausted, or just made a big mistake. You're now in last place, and it's a sad scene.
Improving Quadrant (blue) - Time for a comeback! 💪 Your motivation returns, the music swells, and you're picking up speed. You're back in the middle, catching up with the leaders.

Analyzing the RRG Examples

Example 1: Rapid Rotation
- If an instrument moves quickly through all four quadrants, it could indicate high volatility or erratic behavior. Traders may want to be cautious or use appropriate risk management strategies in such cases.

Example 2: Stuck in the Middle
- An instrument that remains close to the center of the RRG might be in a consolidation phase, lacking a clear trend or momentum. Traders might wait for a decisive move before entering a position.

Example 3: Consistent Leader
- If an instrument stays in the Leading Quadrant (top right) for an extended period, it could signify a strong, sustained uptrend. Traders might consider buying opportunities or riding the trend.

Example 4: Slow Recovery
- An instrument that gradually moves from the Lagging Quadrant (bottom left) to the Improving Quadrant (blue) and eventually to the Leading Quadrant (green) could indicate a slow but steady recovery. Traders might look for potential reversal or bottom-fishing opportunities.

The GIF below shows the past 21 days of movement on the RRG.

Click to enlarge

The GIF below shows the past 13 weeks of movement on the RRG.

Click to enlarge

CRYPTO
Weekly Total Market Cap (TMC) Performance

Index	Value	Weekly Performance
TMC Excluding BTC and ETH	$656B	0%
TMC Excluding BTC and Stablecoins	$601B	0%
TMC Excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins	$375B	0%
TMC Excluding Stablecoins	$1.87T	-1%
TMC Excluding Top 10	$160B	-2%
TMC Excluding Top 50	$34B	-3%
TMC Excluding Top 100	$6B	0%

CRYPTO
Weekly Crypto Index Performance

Index	Weekly Performance
AI	-2%
Decentralized Finance	-4%
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure	-1%
Exchange Tokens	+2%
Layer 1	0%
Meme	+1%
Proof-Of-Stake	+2%
Proof-Of-Work	-1%
Real World Asset Tokenization	-11%
Rehypothecated	+1%
Smart Contracts	+1%
Stablecoins	-1%

CRYPTO
Liquidation Station 😱

Interested in how much has been flushed out of leveraged long and short positions? Who’s getting hurt the most? This is the best place to get an idea of how leveraged positions are doing. 🔴

30-day Total Liquidations 📆

What You’re Looking At

Green bars above zero = longs blown out because price fell.
Red bars below zero = shorts blown out because price ripped.
Left-hand scale is U.S. dollars (millions); the dashed line near the top sits at $1B.

30-day Total Crypto Liquidation Chart - Click to enlarge.

June 30 - July 1 - Early two-sided pressure, with short liquidations around $250M-$300M and longs also active near $200M+. A messy start. Naturally.
July 5 - July 6 - Another short-side hit near $300M, while long liquidations stay elevated around 200M-$250M.
July 11 - July 13 - Rotation gets ugly: long liquidations jump toward $300M-$350M, then shorts get clipped near $300M shortly after.
July 15 - July 16 - Longs take another meaningful hit, roughly $250M-$275M, as price stalls and leverage gets trimmed.
July 26 - July 28 - Largest long-side cluster of the month. Long liquidations push toward $450M, then remain elevated around 300M+.
July 30 - Late-month long liquidation pop near $225M, but nothing close to a fresh cascade.

Quick read

What You’re Looking At

Rows = coins, columns = timestamps.
Color = head-count of forced liquidations (legend tops at 2,000).
A cell showing “BTC 1,600” means 1,600 separate BTC positions were liquidated.

Weekly Crypto Liquidation History Heatmap - Click to enlarge.

July 24 20:00 - BTC and ETH start warm right away, with BTC already pushing into higher intensity. Majors lead, as usual, because apparently crypto has a chain of command.
July 26 04:00 - July 26 20:00 - BTC and ETH heat up again, while SOL and a few second-tier names start following. Still majors-first.
July 27 12:00 - July 28 04:00 - SNDK begins lighting up hard, with several cells pushing toward the 2,000 cap. Not subtle.
July 28 20:00 - BTC/ETH remain active, while SKHYNIX, MU, and SNDK show stronger liquidation counts. TradFi-adjacent weirdness, because why not.
July 30 04:00 - July 30 20:00 - Another broad activity window. BTC and ETH stay elevated, SNDK stays hot, and SOL/SPCX contribute bursts.
July 31 12:00 - Heat cools across most rows, though BTC, ETH, and SNDK remain visible.

Some Interesting Insights 👓️

The monthly chart shows two-sided liquidations, with shorts hit harder early and longs hit harder late.
Participation stayed elevated, but liquidation notional stayed capped versus the early-June chaos.
The weekly heat-map confirms that leverage was still busy, especially in BTC, ETH, and SNDK.
BTC’s relatively stable price path means liquidations were driven more by positioning errors than a clean directional breakdown.
Early-warning rule: when BTC is stable but the heat-map keeps flashing orange, someone is over-levered somewhere. Probably loudly. Probably confidently.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Tomorrow Is The First Day Of Awful-gust 😩

Jonathan Morgan — Fri, 31 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Tomorrow Is The First Day Of Awful-gust 😩

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

What’s happening today? Fun is happening today. Fun in the form of data and stats about just how full of suck the month of August is. If August was a movie, it’s Tommy Wiseau’s The Room. 🎥

Today we’re going to look at two pieces of crypto data: The Total Market Cap (TOTAL) and the Altcoin Market Cap (Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins) and how they’ve historically performed in the month of August.

If you’re looking for those charts in TradingView, the Total Market Cap Chart listed as TOTAL and the Altcoin Market Cap Chart we’re using is listed as TOTAL3ES.

Quick Note On The Altcoin Market Data

Click to enlarge.

the altcoin market was worth $40+ million in 2014. I’ve instead analyzed the market going back to 2017 when it was at $14 billion and looked like, well, a market. Also, if I used the oldest data for the altcoin market going back to 2014, the results would make August look more ‘meh’ than the roadkill it really is. 🦌

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X inverted h&s
— hans (@Packers_Fan_Investor)
2:13 PM • Jul 31, 2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
August Is Crypto's Worst Month And Its Biggest Month 🎰

Some wildly different performance metrics for August. 👇️

Click to enlarge.

Positive average on both. Negative median on both.

Click to enlarge.

The aggregate crypto market is going on four consecutive red Augusts - in the suck since 2022.

Click to enlarge.

Take out 2017, and the bullish case goes poof for altcoins, from +18% to zero. Take out 2021 and the average is -8%. Ouch.

Click to enlarge.

And out of all the months of the year, August is, historically, the worst month for altcoins and the broader crypto market. 😭

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ETH.X when the banks are this worried about Crypto it tells you all you need to know….
— Clark Taylor (@TBar8811)
10:11 PM • Jul 30, 2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins Batting Average, Usain Bolt Exit Velocity 💨

How does crypto do when August closes in the green vs. the red? Well, insanely divergent, so that makes total sense for this market. 📔

Click to enlarge.

That +42% is the highest average green return of any month on the calendar for all of crypto. The altcoin figure of +60.36% ranks second, behind December.

The red Augusts are unremarkable. Middle of the pack on both. June, November, and January all hit harder when they go wrong. August's worst month ever for crypto is nearly -19% and eleven other months in the sample beat it for damage.

So August doesn't hurt more than other months. It hurts more often.

And here’s something you might not read anywhere else (well, there’s a bunch in here that can’t get anywhere else #chestthump): August has never been the best month of any year. Not one.

Might as well keep the Minnesota sports analogy going here: August is the Minnesota Vikings in the post season: a regular, seasonal, disappointment. 📆

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So. Anyway To Tell How Much Suck August Will Have? 🤔

The answer is a solid shmaybe. The Total Market Cap data is going to be a little more useful than the who nine pieces of data I’ve got for altcoins. And to be honest, crypto is still so new that it doesn’t have a the kind of multidecade history analysts would like. We literally work with what we have. 🤏

Click to enlarge.

Relief rallies after a bad Q2 are normal. August is when the market checks whether the rally had anything behind it. Historically the audit turns up irregularities. August has historically required real momentum coming in. A polite July bounce doesn’t qualify, and a broken first half has never been repaired in August.

The altcoin version is directionally similar and statistically thin. Three red first halves since 2017 - 2018, 2022, 2025 - produced August returns of -21%, -10%, and +4%. One green out of three.

Fun fact: Every red Q2 for crypto (and alts) has been followed by a green July. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$XRP.X don't worry you have years to accumulate again/wait again. Happy hodling.
— Tig Bimmy (@tigbimmy)
3:31 PM • Jul 31, 2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Does August Determine Q3? Maybe 🔢

August is the middle child of Q3, but might also be the one calling the shots. 📱

Click to enlarge.

The combined July-August return has matched the final direction of Q3 in every observation on record. Never missed. But that’s mostly about how much of a bore September is. The standard deviation for September is a whopping 8% for all of crypto and nearly 10% for the altcoin market.

If you want a stat to tell your besties, here’s one: The total crypto market has produced ZERO green Q3s in twelve years. Zip. And the altcoin market was in the same boat until… last year. Q3 2025 it ended green. Not that it helped. 🤦

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

The main piece asked what happens if you skip August - testing BTC, ETH, XRP, ADA, LTC, and XMR to see whether selling before August and buying back in September helped or hurt.
Bitcoin’s August history looked awful - but skipping August historically beat holding by about 60%.
ETH was the exception-ish - August average return was +6.1%, but median was still -7.4%.
Monero was the weird alpha goblin - August ranked 1st for XMR, with a monster average return of +62.99%, and skipping August nuked gains by 94%.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

Algorand was the quiet overachiever - huge transaction growth, record TPS, millions of accounts, and still one of the most beaten-down holder bases imaginable.
Zcash was the privacy comeback candidate - miserable price history, but still active and positioned as the middle ground between Bitcoin’s transparency and Monero’s full privacy.
Stellar was the RWA tokenization play - Taurus brought custody and issuance tools to Stellar, and the piece noted that roughly $360M of the estimated $1.7B RWA market was already on Stellar.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 31

781 - Mount Fuji produced its earliest recorded eruption.
1498 - Christopher Columbus reached Trinidad on his third voyage.
1715 - A hurricane sank ten Spanish treasure ships off Florida, killing hundreds and scattering a fortune.
1777 - Lafayette, age 19, became an unpaid American major general.
1790 - The United States issued its first patent, for an improved potash-making process.
1917 - Passchendaele began, turning Belgian farmland into one of World War I’s bloodiest mud pits.
1932 - Hitler’s Nazi Party became the largest party in Germany’s parliament.
1976 - NASA released the “Face on Mars” image, launching decades of alien-conspiracy fuel.
1991 - The U.S. and Soviet Union signed START I, requiring thousands of nuclear weapons to be dismantled.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

It's Not Ethereum's Birthday 🎂

Jonathan Morgan — Thu, 30 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

It's Not Ethereum's Birthday 🎂

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers:

NEWS
Happy Birthday To The Wrong Chain 🤷

If you’ve seen all the Happy Birthday Ethereum shtuff today, I hate to be the one to tell you it’s not Ethereum’s birthday. I mean, technically, it’s still Ethereum’s birthday, but not the one you’re thinking of. 🎂

Think of it as a family. Mom is the blockchain. She showed up July 30, 2015, and she's produced a block every few seconds since without ever leaving the address. Dad is Vitalik and the client developers. In July 2016 dad found a number in the family ledger he didn't like, and when mom wouldn't cross it out, he packed up and moved across town.

He took the last name. Took the house, the friends, most of the kids, and the wedding albums. Started fresh with someone more flexible about bookkeeping. Mom never went anywhere. She just goes by Classic (Ethereum Classic) now.

What Happened

Jul 30, 2015 - Genesis. One chain, no dispute.
Jun 17, 2016 - Roughly 3.6M ETH, about $50M, gets diverted into an attacker-controlled child DAO and sits there under a 27-day lock. The DAO held nearly 14% of all ether outstanding.
Jul 20, 2016 - Hard fork at block 1,920,000. Fork-enabled clients execute a one-time state transfer, moving DAO-related balances into a recovery contract.
The edited chain kept the name Ethereum. The original, unedited one became Ethereum Classic.

So… Whose Birthday Is It?

One is a year-ish older than the other. Only one of them still lives in the house where the ledger says what it always said. The Ethereum we know today as $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) turned 10 on June 17, 2026. The original Ethereum blockchain, $ETC ( ▲ 2.1% ), turned 11 today. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$JASMY.X I’m pleased to confirm that I’m now a proud bag holder of 4.25 million Jasmy. Impressive feat.
— When Lambo (@Itouchelephants)
8:23 PM • Jul 28, 2026

NEWS
Zcash Mining Is Getting Crowded

Interest in mining $ZEC ( ▲ 3.5% ) is picking up. Fortitude Mining just committed roughly $31.5 million to buy 9,000 Bitmain Antminer Z15 Pro units. That’s one of the largest recent hardware purchases focused entirely on the Equihash network. 🤯

The order will add about 7.56 GSol/s of hashrate when the miners are deployed later this year across Fortitude's 60+ MW of mining sites in Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and New York. The company says it secured the machines at a discount to prevailing market prices, suggesting it's willing to make a sizable bet before broader demand pushes costs higher.

The move also shows growing conviction around Zcash infrastructure. During the first half of 2026, Fortitude mined 72,696 ZEC, accounting for roughly 28% of total network production over that period. Doubling down with another 9,000 ASICs is a pretty good sign the company expects mining economics and long-term network participation to remain attractive.

And, naturally, they must believe Zcash’s price is going to go higher. Kind of a waste of money if they were just yoloing $32 million on a forecast that is just a ‘maybe’. What do they know we dont…. 🤔

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X good morning only to those that buy bitcoin
Everyone else can suck rocks
— Mortimer Duke (@doctorwho)
11:50 AM • Jul 30, 2026

STABLECOINS
USA₮ Finds a Chain With Users 👍️

I always like crypto stories where the little guy gets a win. 🏆️

$CELO ( ▲ 1.0% ) just became the second blockchain after Ethereum to support native USA₮, the federally regulated dollar stablecoin issued by Anchorage Digital Bank and backed by Tether.

Good for you, Celo. Well done.

For those who don’t know, Celo is an Ethereum L2 built mainly for mobile-first payments, remittances, savings, and everyday stablecoin use. Less “financial revolution in a 94-page PDF.” More “send someone dollars without paying a bank $38 and sacrificing a Tuesday.”

USA₮ arrives with native minting and burning, plus, and its crazy this is something that even needs to be a thing: the ability to pay Celo transaction fees in USA₮ itself. No separate stash of CELO needed just to move the stablecoin.

Celo now handles 28% of USD₮ transfers across blockchains, according to the project, while users grew 67% during Q2 2026. More than half of Celo gas fees are already paid in stablecoins. Opera’s MiniPay wallet, built on Celo, has also brought in over 18 million users and plans to add USA₮ support.

Good work. Keep doing that. 👍️

NEWS
Quant: Tokenized Money Is Running Into the Same Old Problem ⚠️

The easy part was putting money on a blockchain. The hard part is getting all those blockchains, banks, and payment systems to talk to each other. 📣

Yes, stablecoins proved digital dollars can move around the world in seconds. Yes, tokenized bank deposits are following. Yes, there are pilots like the UK's GBTD showing regulated bank money can live on distributed ledgers. But Quant says there’s a problem.

Almost all stablecoins live on public chains, but most tokenized deposits stay inside permissioned banking networks. The moment money has to cross between them, things get messy.

$QNT ( ▼ 0.4% ) ’s Fusion wants to solve that by acting as the connective tissue between networks. Instead of moving assets through bridges, it uses synchronized settlement so every leg of a transaction either completes together or fails together. That could make cross-border payments, FX settlement, and tokenized securities transfers less of a juggling act. 🤹

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
news

$UNI.X ... Not only will 100 mill tokens be burned but it becomes Deflationary with continues burns -

...
— Waldo_5150 (@Waldo_5150)
2:43 PM • Dec 20, 2025

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🤖 Casper Gives Bots Their Own Checking Account

Casper is upgrading csprUSD into the default dollar settlement asset for its x402 stack, letting AI agents pay for APIs, data, and compute inside ordinary HTTP requests. CEP-3009 lets an agent sign a one-time authorization off-chain while a facilitator handles settlement, and CEP-97 cuts minimum network fees from 2.5 CSPR to 0.1 CSPR. Caspner Network.

💵 Kraken Removes A Detour From Injective’s Dollar Rails

Kraken now supports native USDC deposits and withdrawals on Injective, removing the extra blockchain withdrawal and cross-chain transfer previously required. Clients can move Circle-issued USDC directly between Kraken and Injective, then use it for trading, tokenized assets, payments, or applications. Injective Protocol.

🧤 Alchemy Pay Collects Michigan

Alchemy Pay now holds money-transmitter licenses in 19 states after Michigan joined the list. The approval supports fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-fiat services in the state while adding another regulatory brick beneath Alchemy Chain and its stablecoin plans. It’s still annoying that America makes payment companies collect licenses like refrigerator magnets. Alchemy Pay.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🎟️ World Wants the Bots Out of the Ticket Line

Fans are not losing ticket queues to faster thumbs; they are competing with software. World’s Concert Kit lets organizers reserve inventory for Orb-verified World ID holders, while purchases still run through existing ticketing systems and platforms learn only that the buyer is a unique human. The model has already been used in San Francisco and for upcoming Thirty Seconds to Mars shows in Germany. Worldcoin.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🏴‍☠️ Enjin Puts 100,000 ENJ In The Pirate Loot Chest

Captain & Company is bringing its pirate MMORPG to Enjin, where players mint a non-tradable Pass that levels from Bronze to Gold as their on-chain mXP grows. Its launch contest puts 100,000 ENJ inside Pirate Blob NFTs for 50 winners - five drawn randomly with no purchase required and 45 taken from the doubloon leaderboard. Enjin.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🧾 Solana Swap Apps Can Add Their Own Convenience Tax

0x has added optional fee controls to its Solana Swap API, letting wallets and frontends charge volume-based fees inside each swap request. Integrators can split fees among several recipients, charge the input token, output token, or both, and leave existing integrations unchanged. 0x.

🛡️ TrancheShield Hires a Risk Manager Who Never Sleeps

A Uniswap v4 hook only does something when somebody trades, which is awkward when reserves are draining between swaps. TrancheShield pairs its hook with a Reactive Lasna testnet contract that tracks volatility, reserve health, and senior withdrawals, then adjusts fees, coverage, or deposit access. Five withdrawals within an hour triggers crisis mode, cuts coverage to 15%, and closes senior deposits - automated risk control, not a magical promise that impermanent loss went extinct. Reactive Network.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

⛏️ Stacks Hardfork Lands; Stakers Have Homework

PoX-5 activated at Bitcoin block 960,230 with block production continuing normally, opening the phased rollout of Bitcoin Bonds and self-custodial BTC yield. If you stake STX, your previous position unlocked and must be restaked before block 962,050 to earn during the first new cycle; ordinary holders need no swap or migration. Stacks.

⛽ Flow Raises Gas, Mints Less Of Itself

Flow is raising most transaction fees 2-4x after 3.39 million mainnet transactions showed the old pricing model underestimated execution cost by roughly 5x. The average increase is about 0.01 FLOW and remains below one-tenth of a cent, while current activity would cut monthly issuance by roughly 171,000 FLOW. Flow.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

Trump’s EO 14178 was the policy headline - CBDCs got blocked, a new Working Group got 180 days to rethink crypto rules, and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve stayed in “study it harder” mode.
Kraken wanted Wall Street money before going public - reportedly chasing $500M at a $15B valuation ahead of a possible Q1 2026 listing.
A Florida sheriff’s crypto seizure backfired - Volusia County froze and sold BTC tied to the wrong wallet, then had to return the coins, claw back Wisconsin’s check, and pay the legal bill.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

NFTs made their “if Taylor Swift tickets aren’t securities, why are we?” argument - law professor Brian Frye and songwriter Jonathan Mann sued the SEC for clarity on whether NFTs fall under its jurisdiction.
DraftKings shut down its NFT business - legal pressure from a class action claiming its NFTs were unregistered securities forced the company to close the whole thing and offer buyouts to Reignmakers users.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 30

30 B.C. - Mark Antony won one final cavalry battle, then watched his infantry and fleet abandon him the next day.
762 - Caliph al-Mansur founded Baghdad as the new capital of the Abbasid Empire.
1627 - An earthquake struck Italy’s Gargano Peninsula and killed roughly 5,000 people.
1864 - Union troops detonated 4 tons of gunpowder beneath Confederate lines, then charged directly into the crater.
1916 - German saboteurs blew up a New York munitions depot, damaging the Statue of Liberty.
1930 - Uruguay defeated Argentina 4-2 to win the first FIFA World Cup.
1945 - A Japanese submarine sank the USS Indianapolis in 12 minutes, leaving survivors stranded for 4 days.
1956 - “In God We Trust” became the official U.S. motto and mandatory on paper currency.
1965 - Lyndon Johnson created Medicare and Medicaid, enrolling Harry Truman as Medicare’s first beneficiary.
1975 - Jimmy Hoffa vanished from a Bloomfield Hills restaurant parking lot.
2003 - The final classic Volkswagen Beetle rolled off the line after 21,529,464 were built.
2003 - Scientists cloned an extinct ibex, which lived for minutes and became the first species to go extinct twice.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🤯 Cathie Wood's Ark Trims BMNR Stock Exposure Despite Calling Its Ethereum Strategy ‘Exponential’ – Sells BLSH, HOOD, XYZ Shares Too

🪙 DCG Says US Faces 'Alarming' Offshore Flight Without CLARITY Act, Demands Vote Before August Recess

🟩 Blindfolded speedcuber solves Rubik's cube in 11.56 seconds

🚗 BeamNG.drive, Steam's finest car pancake maker, gets its biggest update yet with overhauled graphics, fresh rally stages and a sporty new coupe

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Perp My Ride 🏎️

Jonathan Morgan — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Perp My Ride 🏎️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ALGO ( ▲ 2.4% ) , $UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) , $KTA ( ▲ 0.1% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) , and $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% )

NEWS
Post Fed Price Action 🤯

FYI: I’m writing and annotating these charts as of 1500 EST. That’s 1-hour post the rate decision so things could look very, very different depending on when you read this. ⌚️

XRP

XRPUSD Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge

$XRP ( ▼ 1.1% ) monthly chart is just a fantastic example of how useful the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system is. June’s candle close right on top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) and almost the entirety of July has been a fight between bulls and bears, with bulls (so far) keeping it above the top of the Cloud. ☁️

I’d also like to point out that the Composite Index and Detrended Price Oscillator between February and July of this year are the lowest in XRP’s history and they’re just now starting to turn up.

Special note: If you look ahead towards December 2026 to February 2027, you’ll see the Cloud does eventually turn and move higher, with both Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B point up. Watch what happens in those months, there’s a high probability of XRP finding some upside momentum.🧠

BTC

BTCUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

Something similar going on here with Bitcoin as to what we looked at with XRP: a good Ichimoku example. 👍️

Unfortunately the only example here is a warning: it’s inside the Cloud. So it’s a good idea to just look at it and then put it out of your mind because anything that is inside the Cloud is just something you don’t even want to think about. It’s dead to you. It will only hurt you.

The only time you want to care or even look at a chart likes $BTC ( ▲ 1.1% ) ’s daily chart is when the candlesticks look like they’re breaking out of the Cloud. Then, and only then do you even give it a deeper look.

The Cloud represents volatility, indecision, whipsaws, false breakouts, and just misery on a scale you don’t want to measure. The Cloud is where everything bad in the world exists (socks with sandals, inflation, Hitler, Putin, Canadian wild fires, cilantro, wasps, hornets, those random lawn potholes that make me roll my ankle every god damned time I mow, etc).

HYPE

HYPEUSD Daily Chart - Click to enlarge

Ooof. Hyperliquid. That’s a rough looking daily chart. 😶

From an Ichimoku perspective, $HYPE ( ▲ 2.4% ) has a confirmed Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout on the daily chart. That confirmation happened on Monday and there has, so far, been no clear attempt by the bulls to give it a little push higher.

And if you want some fundamental pressure, you’ve got some in the form of the $CME ( ▼ 0.38% ) ’s new single stock futures that released on Monday, too. 📆

DEFI
Perp My Upside: The Closing Bell Gets Fired 🔥

Some cool data from coingecko came out today regarding how traditional assets are trading on exchanges. 😯

Crypto exchanges generated $393.14 billion in traditional-asset volume during June.
Perpetual futures supplied $387.39 billion. Spot supplied $5.75 billion.
That makes perps 98.5% of the entire market.

Not exactly Wall Street getting tokenized, more like the tickers got copied, kept open 24/7, and handed a leverage slider.

The Perp Machine

The growth has been fairly stupid:

Monthly perp volume climbed from $3.32 billion to $387.39 billion.
Open interest exploded from $60 million to $4.67 billion.
June volume was roughly 84 times total open interest.

Gold Out Stocks In

Precious metals powered the first wave, reaching $236.76 billion in March. By June, metals volume had fallen 48.2% to $122.59 billion.

Then stock perps knocked, kicked in the door, threw metals out the door, built an addition, then two more stories, and now they’re working on a six car garage.

May volume: $43.40 billion
June volume: $189.84 billion
Monthly increase: 337.4%

Traders Want The Night Shift

Among the report’s survey respondents:

64.7% valued always-on market access.
73.3% traded before traditional markets opened.
58% called early positioning the greatest CEX advantage.

Across the report’s 18-month window, crypto exchanges turned traditional assets into a $393.14 billion monthly market. June 2026 supplied the high-water mark. 🤯

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$HBAR.X
— Time = 1.618033988749 (@GOST)
3:32 PM • Jul 29, 2026

NEWS
Kraken Will Pay You 7% If You Can Prove You Don't Need It 🦑

Kraken rolled out Fixed Rate Rewards this week, offering up to 7% APY on cash and stablecoins locked for 3, 6, 12, or 18 months. Rewards compound weekly. Auto-renew if you'd rather not think about it. 🤑

Also: US accredited investors only.

That means a million in net worth outside your house, or $200k a year in income. The people who qualify for a guaranteed 7% on idle cash are, by definition, the people least likely to be sweating what their idle cash is doing. Everyone parking $4,000 in USDC hoping to outrun their savings account gets to read the press release and move on.

The product itself is fine. Fixed-term, fixed-rate, no drift, on USD, EUR, USDT, USDC and USDG. It's a CD with a blockchain in the plumbing, which is roughly what a lot of DeFi has been converging toward anyway.

To be clear, the requirement isn't Kraken's fault. Reg D wrote it decades ago. And, if you’re hopeful about the loosening of things from a regulatory perspective, this (accredited investor) could be something going away (or at least becoming more attainable for normal people) in the near future. 🔮

NEWS
IMF: Brazil, You’ve Been Naughty 🫢

Brazil’s crypto market has boomed since 2017. USD stablecoins now handle trading, remittances and cross-border transfers. And it does those things, now, with shocking ease. And the IMF doesn’t much like that. 😤

Its latest assessment found Brazil’s cross-border crypto flows have grown faster than traditional capital flows. Stablecoin purchases are also 2 to 3 times more sensitive to global shocks than portfolio investment or foreign direct investment.

They’re basically saying that when markets wobble or the real (Brazil’s currency) comes under pressure, Brazilians can move into digital dollars fast. No foreign currency account. No banking hours. The IMF sees that as a stability risk.

But, dear readers, there is a little gem in this 79-page wall of text: Buried in the assessment is a chart they (the IMF) probably didn’t want to be interpreted a certain way.

IMF Report, Page 60 - Click to enalrge.

When Brazil raised its IOF financial transaction tax, stablecoin purchases jumped roughly $400 million. When it cut the tax, they fell.

Most people in the crypto space will call BS on the idea this is only about safety. Stablecoins made dollar access embarrassingly easy. Institutions built around controlling currency movement do not enjoy being bypassed. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

The markets for tokenized US Treasuries has gone vertical.
The entire RWA sector is booming.
My main plays on this?
- $ONDO.X
- $PLUME.X
- $LINK.X
They'll thrive and it's only going to be a matter of time until the markets and valuations are going to follow suit.
— Oscar ramos (@Realoscarramos)
6:19 PM • Jul 29, 2026

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

The main piece was an MVRV read on altcoins - checking 7-day and 30-day MVRV to see whether the pullback had cleaned out enough short-term pain for upside to matter again.
BTC looked neutral - holders were basically flat, with no giant profit pile begging to be dumped, but still needing a catalyst instead of emotional support.
James Wynn kept doing James Wynn things - more deposits, more high-leverage flips, more liquidations, and a balance down to about $30,890 after a PEPE cascade.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

Bitcoin 2024 was the main event - Trump used the Nashville stage to promise a national Bitcoin stockpile, a crypto-friendly advisory council, no CBDC, support for self-custody, and firing Gary Gensler on day one.
The conference was pure Bitcoin maximalist theater - Michael Saylor floated $13M BTC by 2045, VanEck’s CEO said over 30% of his net worth was in Bitcoin, and John Deaton said 82% of his wealth was in BTC.
Edward Snowden was there - warning Bitcoiners that politicians may just be courting them for votes, which is rude because it is also obviously how politics works.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 29

587 B.C. - Babylonian forces destroyed Jerusalem and the First Temple.
238 - Rome’s Praetorian Guard seized and murdered 2 emperors, Balbinus and Pupienus, in one afternoon.
615 - Pakal became ruler of the Maya city of Palenque at age 12.
904 - Saracen raiders sacked Thessalonica and enslaved roughly 22,000 residents.
1014 - Byzantine Emperor Basil II blinded thousands of Bulgarian prisoners after defeating their army.
1148 - Crusaders abandoned Damascus after only 4 days, effectively wrecking the Second Crusade.
1588 - English ships defeated the Spanish Armada at Gravelines.
1818 - Augustin Fresnel presented work proving light behaves as a wave.
1921 - Adolf Hitler took control of the Nazi Party. Nothing improved from there.
1932 - U.S. troops attacked protesting World War I veterans with tanks, bayonets, tear gas and fire.
1954 - J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Fellowship of the Ring was published.
1958 - President Eisenhower signed the law creating NASA.
1981 - Roughly 750 million people watched Prince Charles marry Diana Spencer.
2005 - Astronomers announced Eris, the discovery that helped get Pluto demoted. Pricks.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Watching Bread Mold Is More Exciting 🍞

Jonathan Morgan — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Watching Bread Mold Is More Exciting 🍞

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $AVT ( ▼ 2.0% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) , $ZBCN ( ▼ 0.1% ) , $KTA ( ▲ 0.1% ) , and $ONDO ( ▼ 5.0% )

Apple’s Starlink Update Sparks Huge Earning Opportunity

Apple just secretly added Starlink satellite support to iPhones through iOS 18.3.

One of the biggest potential winners? Mode Mobile.

Mode’s EarnPhone already reaches 490M+ users that have earned over $1B, and that’s before global satellite coverage. With SpaceX eliminating "dead zones," Mode's earning technology can now reach billions more in unbanked and rural populations worldwide.

Their global expansion is perfectly timed, and investors like you still have a chance to invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.52/share.

With their recent 32,481% revenue growth and newly reserved Nasdaq ticker, Mode is one step closer to a potential IPO.

Tap into a $1T opportunity — invest now at just $0.52/share and get up to 20% bonus.

^{Please read the offering circular and related risks at}^{invest.modemobile.com}^{. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.}

^{Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.}

^{The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.}

NEWS
The Leverage Absorption Ratio 📊

Today's issue is all LAR. 👈️

Everyone watches open interest. Rising OI is bullish, falling OI is bearish, and that read is incomplete. The question isn't whether leverage is growing. It's whether the market can digest it without coming apart. That's what the Leverage Absorption Ratio (LAR) measures.

The LAR takes four things: price, open interest, funding rates, and volatility. Open interest is how much borrowed money is in the market. Funding is what it costs to keep that borrowed money in place. Volatility is how rough the ride is. And price is self explanitory.

Those four get boiled into a single score from 1 to 5. Above 4.0 is Smooth Sailing (bullish/good). Between 3.0 and 4.0 is Check Engine. Below 3.0 is the Danger Zone (bearish/bad).

The LAR does not predict. It tells you whether the leverage underneath is load-bearing or improvising.

Let’s get into it. 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin: The Rally Nobody Financed 🪙

Click to enlarge.

$BTC ( ▲ 1.1% ) ’s LAR reads 1.90 and it got there the way a roof leak gets there - through the ceiling, weeks after the pipes went. ⤵️

Fourteen sessions ago this printed 4.59. The slide since has been close to monotonic (always wanted to use that word): 3.91, 4.24, 3.61, 3.69, 3.10, then straight down through the floor.

Price is up 8% over 28 days. That should help. It doesn't, because raw open interest fell $3.27 billion over the same stretch, so the adjustment takes a second bite. Funding-adjusted OI is down $1.02 billion. Price rose and the leverage left.

Volatility has compressed to 2.64% against a window that ran as hot as 12.13%. That's a small denominator making an ugly numerator look worse, and the ugliness is real regardless. Bitcoin is $63,226, down 25.2% from where January opened, up 8% off the June 30 low at $58,562.

So the tape went up and the perp market sat it out. Those two don't stay disagreed for long. ⌛️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum: Same Machine, Running Backwards 🏃

Click to enlarge.

Ethereum is the inverse to what Bitcoin is doing. 🔄

$ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) longs stopped paying a premium to be long, and they did it while price ran 20.1% off the June 25 low at $1,565. Raw open interest added $1.19 billion. Funding-adjusted OI added $4.40 billion, which is what happens when a crowd thins out of an expensive trade.

LAR sits at 3.34. Check Engine, but one of the few readings in this batch that got there by improving rather than by mechanical accident. Fourteen sessions back it was 2.39. Volatility is 5.05%, dead center of the window. No compression trick propping the ratio up, no spike wrecking it.

The leverage structure has genuinely repaired itself. The price has clawed back a fifth of a hole it spent six months digging. ⚒️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
XRP: The Indicator Is Reading Last Week's Paper 📰

Click to enlarge.

XRP went off the same ledge Bitcoin did, only faster. The worst of the nine tickers we’re looking at today. 😱

The annoying part is that today's raw print flipped positive. Funding has drained and funding-adjusted open interest is up $400 million even as the raw OI shed $75 million.

Six of the last seven raw values were negative, several badly, and the average is still buried under them. Price is $1.05, up 1.4% over 28 days and sitting a percent and a half off the June 30 low. Volatility is 2.46%. It’s gone flat the way a balloon does with a slow leak.

$XRP ( ▼ 1.1% ) ’s structure may be turning. The tape has not been informed. 📣

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$AMFN Same I liquidated almost all my crypto such as $DOGE.X $TURBO.X and $TOSHI.X to buy as much as I could. Shame crypto is in the dumps it could have been much more but I feel American Fusion will have a much bigger run.
To those crypto’s that I mentioned, AMFN has some great DD and we’re making moves if you’re interested in checking it out.
— I am you (@The_INFO_Dude)
11:51 AM • Jul 28, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Solana: Marked Down For A Rounding Error ➗

Click to enlarge.

$SOL ( ▲ 0.7% ) ’s funding-adjusted open interest is up $1.09 billion over 28 days despite raw OI dropping $531 million. That's some major deleveraging going on with the expensive longs going home and what's left is cheap. 🪗

Price is down 0.3% over 28 days. Not down fifteen percent. Down a third of one percent. The way the formula works means SOL is getting marked down over a move you'd need a magnifying glass to locate.

Volatility is 2.24%, price is $73.34, down 37.6% from January, up 17.9% off the June 6 low at $62.20.

Two green days and this prints above 3.00 with nothing else changing. 😶

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Hyperliquid: The Seismograph 📈

Click to enlarge.

Hyperliquid's last fourteen LAR readings: 1.95, 1.14, 1.30, 1.22, 1.19, 1.68, 1.11, 1.08, 2.93, 3.12, 3.99, 4.24, 1.38, 2.74. 🤯

Four zone changes. One of them a 2.86-point drop inside a single session.

And the swings? Holy cow. Here are $HYPE ( ▲ 2.4% ) ’s last seven, in billions: -0.11, +32.12, +2.13, +8.39, -0.15, -39.19, +1.05. That's a seventy-billion swing between two consecutive days on an asset carrying $1.73 billion of open interest. Hell, I added the seven-day smoothing specifically to make readings like this legible, and it is losing.

Funding sits at the 87.8th percentile, unchanged from a month ago. Raw OI down $300 million, funding-adjusted down $36.5 million.

Price is $54.83, off 15.6% in 28 days and 26.4% below the June 3 high at $74.52. Still up 108.5% from February, which is the number the bagholders will bring up. 💰️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ondo: Thirty-One Percent And A Shrug 🤷

Click to enlarge.

Ondo ran 31.1% over 28 days and the LAR didn't look up. 👀

Smoothed raw values on $ONDO ( ▼ 5.0% ) run from -$0.42 billion to +$0.87 billion. The current print is +$0.05 billion. Open interest is $92 million. Total. Funding-adjusted OI moved $7.7 million over the month. On a book that size the structural signal is thin enough to see through.

Volatility is 9.26%. Fourteen sessions ago it read 1.93, ran to 4.89, collapsed to 1.03, and has crawled back to 2.85. Three zone changes in two weeks on an open interest book that couldn't finance a mid-size regional car dealership.

Price is $0.404, 10.3% under the May 8 high and 79.9% over the February low.

The RWA narrative is doing all the work here. Leverage is riding in the back. 🚓

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano: A 4.73 With One Load-Bearing Day 😕

Click to enlarge.

Cardano’ LAR is 4.73 and I didn't believe it. Then I ran it again and I still don’t believe it. 🤔

Two weeks back, the LAR sequence went like this: 1.41, 1.63, 1.35, 1.16, 1.44, 1.11, 1.03, 1.05, 1.24. For nine straight sessions, $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) pinned near the absolute floor of the scale. Then 2.33, 2.63, 2.99, 4.46, 4.73.

What moved it was a single raw print of +$2.76 billion inside a seven-day window where the other six averaged close to zero. Pull that one day out and this is Check Engine at best.Open interest is $158 million. Funding-adjusted OI moved $2.1 million over 28 days. Raw OI is down $7.3 million. These are rounding errors wearing a structure costume.

Funding sits roughly where it was a month ago. Longs are paying full retail on a coin at $0.156, down 53.2% since January, up 9.1% off the June 25 low.A 4.73 built on one session and a $158 million perp book is a smoke detector with the battery pulled. Green light, no wiring. ⚠️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BMNR$BTCS$ETH.X $XRP.X
If Clarity act is passing: down.
If clarity act is not passing: down even more
— J Doe (@doggo991)
1:46 PM • Jul 28, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Zcash: Smooth Sailing On A Volatility Floor ⛵️

Click to enlarge.

Zcash’s LAR reads 4.65 and it’s already stale.

The last four raw prints, in billions: +8.82, +10.38, +8.97, and then today, +0.07. The seven-day average is still riding those three good sessions. It won't be by Friday. $ZEC ( ▲ 3.5% ) volatility is 4.64%, funding is at the 87.8th percentile. Raw open interest added $48.8 million over 28 days while funding-adjusted OI added $3.1 million.

Price is $468, up 17.3% over 28 days, 30.2% below the May 20 high at $671, up 137.2% from the March low.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Chainlink: The Only Honest One Here 👍️

Click to enlarge.

Chainlink earned its number. 🧠

The LAR of 4.95 is effectively the ceiling. And for once the inputs agree with each other instead of canceling out. Shorts are close to paying longs to hold the other side, which means the open interest in this market gets full credit. Funding-adjusted OI is up $164 million against raw OI up $32.6 million.

Cheap carry, mid-range vol, real OI growth, price cooperating. That combination shows up maybe twice a year. Perfect setup for $LINK ( ▲ 1.6% ) 👍️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

PayPal launched “Pay with Crypto” - letting U.S. merchants accept BTC, ETH, SOL, USDC, and nearly 100 other coins through wallets like MetaMask, Coinbase, Binance, Phantom, and Exodus.
Tron Inc. tried to raise up to $1B - the former SRM Entertainment, now wearing its Tron costume.
The crime story was deranged - South Florida’s Shlomo Haim Akuka allegedly tried to cover a $3M USDT debt by plotting kidnappings and finger-chopping with undercover agents.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 28

1402 - Timur crushed the Ottoman army at Ankara and captured Sultan Bayezid I alive.
1540 - Henry VIII executed Thomas Cromwell, then married Catherine Howard on the same day. Busy schedule.
1794 - Robespierre and 21 allies were guillotined.
1821 - José de San Martín declared Peru independent from Spain.
1868 - The 14th Amendment established birthright citizenship and equal protection under U.S. law.
1914 - Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, officially starting World War I.
1942 - Stalin issued “Not One Step Back,” threatening retreating Soviet soldiers with prison or execution.
1973 - Roughly 600,000 people attended a rock festival at Watkins Glen, more than Woodstock.
1976 - China’s Tangshan earthquake flattened a city and officially killed 242,769 people.
2002 - Rescuers pulled 9 Pennsylvania miners out alive after 77 hours trapped underground.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Crypto, Invented To Escape Central Banking, Now Waiting Fed Meeting 🤦

Jonathan Morgan — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Crypto, Invented To Escape Central Banking, Now Waiting For Fed Meeting 🤦

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) , $NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% ) , $ENA ( ▲ 4.2% ) , $JASMY ( ▼ 3.2% ) , and $AERO ( ▲ 3.8% )

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

Click to take poll

NEWS
Well, This Has To Be A First: A Japanese Financial Giant Just Filed A Recovery Request With A DAO 🤯

On July 26, Hiroaki Morita, CEO of SBI Crypto, posted to the $NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% ) governance forum asking House of Stake to freeze 142.81646368 BTC. Eleven theft transaction hashes, the laundering routes, an offer of TRM tracing output on request, and a corporate email address at the bottom. 📧

The theft date is September 24, 2025. That is the SBI Crypto breach ZachXBT surfaced a week later (had to scroll through his Telegram channel to find it), roughly $21 million across five assets, routed through instant exchanges into Tornado Cash with on-chain patterns matching prior DPRK-linked thefts.

SBI never publicly confirmed it. The tracing now puts the Bitcoin leg in NEAR Intents. Tokyo Metropolitan Police contacted NEAR Intents, and NEAR Intents told them to take it to the DAO.

And I could be wrong, but this looks like the first time the CEO of a major arm of a major financial institution has gone the exact route the architecture says you are supposed to go. No company to sue, no custodian to subpoena, so he addressed the token holders directly, under his own name.

Morita has been around this since 2016 and knows House of Stake has no freeze switch. He filed anyway, which creates a dated record for regulators and insurers either way.

Not the way you want something badass to happen in DeFi, but there it is. 🤦

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ETH.X
This is a photo of marinated bear brisket.
For those who enjoy.
— DORSCs (@All4thedough)
11:12 PM • Jul 26, 2026

NEWS
Chainlink Had A Completely Normal $110B Quarter 🔗

$LINK ( ▲ 1.6% ) ended Q2 2026 with $110 billion in total value secured. CCIP handled $4.9 billion during the quarter, up 353% year over year, while more than $7 billion in cross-chain token value migrated onto the system. 😱

No, normally quarterly reports are corporate highlight reels. Everyone wins. Nobody mentions the copier fire. Yet even after shaving off the promotional frosting, this quarter was nuts.

Bridge migrations: $MNT ( ▲ 2.4% ) le moved $2.5 billion in MNT, KelpDAO moved $1.5 billion in rsETH, Lombard brought $1 billion in Bitcoin assets, and Kraken adopted CCIP for $330 million in kBTC plus future wrapped assets.
TradFi love: DTCC plans to use Chainlink infrastructure for 24/7 collateral workflows. Project Pangea brought together 50-plus banks representing over $10 trillion in AUM to develop T+0 foreign-exchange settlement.
Tokenization: Fidelity International launched its FILQ tokenized fund with Chainlink. State Street and Galaxy launched SWEEP. SIX brought data covering more than €2 trillion in European equities onchain.
Prediction markets went feral: Polymarket’s Chainlink-powered high-speed crypto markets crossed $7 billion in volume. Ten more prediction applications adopted Chainlink, including the official prediction-market partner for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
LINK found an economic pulse: The Chainlink Reserve added 1.44 million LINK, lifting holdings to 4.5 million. Its SVR system has recaptured more than $23 million while processing over $880 million in liquidations with zero reported bad debt.

At some point, calling it an oracle network now feels like calling Amazon a bookstore. 📖

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$LTC.X saw support at $45.48 as anticipated. We've recovered the mid $40's, topping out at $48 or so. Expect value to form in this area. #CryptoCommunity
tradingview.com/x/wn14LvOL/
— Quant Guy (@quant_guy)
1:28 PM • Jul 27, 2026

NEWS
Storj Files Chapter 11 With An Unusual Offer Attached ☁️

Storj Labs filed Chapter 11 on July 26. 🥹

Roughly $35 million raised over the company's life, and management says the liabilities that got them here predate the current strategy. The network keeps running. Token utility is unchanged.

Now, there was one part of that I found kind of interesting and it has to do with the ownership proposal. Token holders have no legal claim on an issuer. In a standard Chapter 11 they sit below secured creditors, unsecured creditors, and equity.

$STORJ ( ▼ 0.7% ) intends to propose a mechanism for holders to participate in the equity of the restructured company. That is not how these usually go. Whenever these kinds of crypto entities go through the bankruptcy proceeding, it’s rare for the main entity to, well, think about their token holders.

But that part is a little light on details. No eligibility criteria, no snapshot date, no allocation percentage, no lockup terms. Creditors vote on the plan and a judge approves it, and the letter is careful to promise intention rather than outcome.

Still. BitMEX announced a wind-down on the 23rd. Poolin filed. Movement Labs went Subchapter V earlier in the month. Storj is the only one in the pile trying to route something back to the people holding the token, and if the court blesses it, that could be a future trend when and if this kind of stuff happens again. 👍️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$DGB.X $BTC.X
— Twenty_juan (@Twenty_juan)
1:06 PM • Jul 27, 2026

His Father Got Parkinson's. He Built Robots Instead.

Clint Brauer grew up on his family's Kansas farm. His dad sprayed the same chemicals every American farmer sprays. Years later: Parkinson's. Clint walked away from a tech career to build a different way. Today his company, Greenfield Robotics, runs a patented fleet of autonomous bots that slice weeds with centimeter precision, day or night, herbicide-free.

Greenfield is now opening shares to everyday investors under Reg A+. Reserve during Test the Waters and you lock in a 5% bonus that can grow to 20% the week the round goes live. The US has 250 million acres at stake.

Get Bonus Shares

_{Greenfield Robotics is Testing The Waters under tier 2 of Regulation A. No money or other consideration is being solicited, and if sent in response will not be accepted. No offer to buy the securities can be accepted and no part of the purchase price can be received until the offering statement filed by the company with the SEC has been qualified by the SEC. Any such offer may be withdrawn or revoked, without obligation or commitment of any kind, at any time before notice of acceptance given after the date of qualification. An indication of interest involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. “Reserving” shares is simply an indication of interest. There is no binding commitment for investors that reserve shares in this manner to ultimately invest and purchase the shares reserved of the company, or to purchase any shares of the company whatsoever.}

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🙈 Stablecoins Finally Learn To Mind Their Own Business

Payroll in USDC sounds efficient until every salary, bonus, and treasury transfer sits on a public ledger. COTI’s Privacy Portal already supports encrypted USDT and USDC balances, with its Garbled Circuits mainnet processing over 125 million transactions since March 2025. Coti.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

📚 Circle Buys IBM’s Blockchain Filing Cabinet

Nearly 1,000 issued patents and more than 680 patent families just moved from IBM to Circle. They cover blockchain, banking, insurance, cloud systems, and supply chains, making Circle the largest U.S. blockchain patent holder by its account. USDC does not suddenly run faster, but Circle now owns a much thicker legal barrier around USDC, Arc, payments, and agentic finance. Circle.

🏦 Credit Unions Lose The “We Don’t Like That” Test

Effective July 27, an NCUA rule codifies that reputation risk cannot drive supervision or punishment for serving lawful but politically disfavored people or businesses. It covers exams, ratings, approvals, enforcement, informal feedback, CUSOs, and actions by agency personnel across 4,370 federally insured credit unions. Financial, operational, compliance, and illegal-activity risks still count; “someone in Washington dislikes the customer” does not. Federal Register

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

📌 Disney Gives Digital Pin Collectors Summer Homework

Seven sets, one week, and an Ariel pin capped at 150 - Disney Pinnacle has located the collector’s pressure points. Dapper Labs’ Flow-based Summer Adventure runs July 24-31 with Disney, Pixar, and Ink & Paint collections; standard packs start at $4.99, premium packs at $99.99, and unsold limited editions retire when the window closes. Flow.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🚨 LayerZero Is Closing Roads, So Move The Car

LayerZero is ending DVN, executor, and Stargate v2 support on several low-activity chains, with timing varying by network. Anyone holding USDC.e, wETH, USDT, Stargate Pool, or Hydra assets on an affected chain should bridge to a supported network such as Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, or BSC. Miss the cutoff and those funds may become inaccessible, which is a rather expensive way to ignore an announcement. LayerZero.

🗄️ DeFi Has Plenty of Money in the Wrong Drawers

TVL tells you how much capital is deposited, not how much is near active trades, earning fees, or available across several venues. 1inch argues passive pools, concentrated ranges, stable pools, vaults, and market makers all leave liquidity fragmented or idle, then uses Total Value Unlocked as the better measurement. Good diagnosis; the model letting one balance serve several opportunities is still the homework. 1Inch.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🪄 Payward Buys the Wallet Factory, Magic Keeps the Lab

Payward, the company behind Kraken, agreed to buy Magic Labs’ wallet infrastructure business, which has powered 60 million-plus wallets and over $10 billion in stablecoin volume. It gives Payward Services embedded, non-custodial wallets beside its trading, custody, tokenization, ramps, and derivatives stack. Magic’s remaining team becomes Newton Labs and focuses on transaction authorization, while Payward becomes an even larger box marked “just plug us in.” Kraken.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

Month, Day (example: May, 3rd)

1054 - An English army invaded Scotland and defeated King Macbeth, the real one, at Dunsinane.
1214 - France won the Battle of Bouvines, wrecking King John’s power and helping set up Magna Carta.
1299 - According to traditional dating, Osman I launched the campaign considered the Ottoman Empire’s beginning.
1377 - Ragusa ordered arriving travelers isolated for 30 days, creating one of history’s first quarantine systems.
1549 - Francis Xavier reached Japan and began the first major Christian mission there.
1694 - The Bank of England received its royal charter.
1794 - Robespierre was arrested, ending the Reign of Terror.
1857 - During India’s rebellion, 68 defenders held out for 8 days against as many as 10,000 attackers.
1866 - The first reliable transatlantic telegraph cable connected Europe and North America.
1890 - Vincent van Gogh suffered the gunshot wound that killed him 2 days later.
1921 - Canadian researchers proved insulin could regulate blood sugar.
1953 - The Korean Armistice halted the war without technically ending it. Still waiting on that treaty.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 30

Jonathan Morgan — Sat, 25 Jul 2026 17:00:00 +0000

OVERVIEW

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 30

Welcome to the Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive for Week 30 of 2026! 📊

In this issue, we'll dive into the data to keep you informed about the progress of the overall crypto market and shine a spotlight on emerging and established trends.

What You’ll Find In The Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive has three main objectives:

Total and Altcoin caps, stamped with YTD moves and the gap to ATH.
Seven-layer market-cap recap (TMC ex-stables, ex-top-50, and five more flavors).
Crypto Index Performance covering 12 indices.
The Liquidation Station boards the train with 30-day totals plus a 7-day heatmap for maximum schadenfreude.
Market Heatmap, Social Volume Heatmap, Active Address Heatmap.
ETF scorecards for BTC and ETH still tracking 7- and 30-day flows.

So, without further delay, let's jump right into the data from week 30 and explore its intriguing insights! 🚀

CRYPTO
Crypto Market Cap Update

What is the broader trend within the crypto market? The simplest way to track this is by using three market cap charts. So let's see what we got. 🔭

Total Market Cap

All-Time High Close: $4.22 trillion
YTD: -26%
From ATH: -48%

Click to enlarge.

Altcoin Market Cap

All-Time High: $1.73 trillion
YTD: -26%
From ATH: -49%

Click to enlarge.

STOCKTWITS
Let’s Talk Futures 👇️

New futures show, hosted by yours truly.

Twitter tweet

CRYPTOTWITS
Missed An Issue This Week? I Got Ya Right Here 👇️

Here’s this week’s Cryptotwits newsletters. That you probably read already. Maybe. Probably.

Monday - Crypto Has Entered Its “Don’t Make Eye Contact” Phase 👀

Tuesday - From Doom Scrolling To Yacht Shopping In Two Days 🤯

Wednesday - CLARITY AcT Text Is Here 🎭️

Thursday - The Outflows Are Like Draining The Pool With A Cocktail Straw 😶

Friday - Man Holds Bag Long Enough That It Now Qualifies As An Heirloom 👴

CRYPTO
Stocktwits Crypto Index RRG

Leading Quadrant (green) - You're a champ! 🏆 You're ahead of everyone else, and the crowd is cheering. But watch out; you might be overdoing it.
Weakening Quadrant (yellow) - You're slowing down 😓 and losing your lead. Maybe you're a bit demoralized because your biggest fan didn't show up. You're now in the middle of the pack.
Lagging Quadrant (red) - Disaster strikes! 😱 You're injured, exhausted, or just made a big mistake. You're now in last place, and it's a sad scene.
Improving Quadrant (blue) - Time for a comeback! 💪 Your motivation returns, the music swells, and you're picking up speed. You're back in the middle, catching up with the leaders.

Analyzing the RRG Examples

The GIF below shows the past 21 days of movement on the RRG.

The GIF below shows the past 13 weeks of movement on the RRG.

CRYPTO
Weekly Total Market Cap (TMC) Performance

Index	Value	Weekly Performance
TMC Excluding BTC and ETH	$657B	-1%
TMC Excluding BTC and Stablecoins	$600B	-1%
TMC Excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins	$376B	-2%
TMC Excluding Stablecoins	$1.89T	0%
TMC Excluding Top 10	$163B	-4%
TMC Excluding Top 50	$35B	-3%
TMC Excluding Top 100	$6B	0%

CRYPTO
Weekly Crypto Index Performance

Index	Weekly Performance
AI	-11%
Decentralized Finance	-2%
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure	-1%
Exchange Tokens	-1%
Layer 1	+2%
Meme	+2%
Proof-Of-Stake	0%
Proof-Of-Work	+2%
Real World Asset Tokenization	+2%
Rehypothecated	+1%
Smart Contracts	+3%
Stablecoins	0%

CRYPTO
Liquidation Station 😱

Interested in how much has been flushed out of leveraged long and short positions? Who’s getting hurt the most? This is the best place to get an idea of how leveraged positions are doing. 🔴

30-day Total Liquidations 📆

What You’re Looking At

Green bars above zero = longs blown out because price fell.
Red bars below zero = shorts blown out because price ripped.
Left-hand scale is U.S. dollars (millions); the dashed line near the top sits at $1B.

30-day Total Crypto Liquidation Chart - Click to enlarge.

June 22 - June 24 - The main event. Long liquidations run roughly from $500M to nearly $800M, then stay elevated above $600M as BTC drops toward the low-$60K area.
June 28 - July 1 - Two-sided churn picks up, with shorts seeing several $200M-$300M hits as BTC stabilizes and tries to bounce.
July 5 - July 6 - Another short-side flush near $300M, while long liquidations remain active but smaller.
July 12 - July 13 - Short liquidations spike again around $300M-$350M, followed by a green bar near $350M-$400M as the market yanks both sides around. Equal opportunity misery.
July 15 - July 16 - Long liquidations rise into the $250M-$300M zone as BTC chops near the upper end of the range.
July 20 - July 23 - Late-window activity stays contained, with both sides mostly under $250M, suggesting the big forced unwind had already passed.

Quick read

What You’re Looking At

Rows = coins, columns = timestamps.
Color = head-count of forced liquidations (legend tops at 2,000).
A cell showing “BTC 1,600” means 1,600 separate BTC positions were liquidated.

Weekly Crypto Liquidation History Heatmap - Click to enlarge.

July 17 12:00 - BTC and ETH open hot, with BTC already near the upper color range. Majors lead the first liquidation wave.
July 18 20:00 - BANK begins showing persistent high-intensity liquidation counts, pushing toward the 2,000 cap while majors stay active.
July 20 04:00 - July 20 20:00 - BTC, ETH, SOL, and BANK all show stronger activity, with BANK continuing to run hot. Not subtle. Not healthy.
July 22 04:00 - July 22 20:00 - Broad activity returns across BTC, ETH, DOGE, SPCX, and SNDK, with several rows moving into yellow/orange territory.
July 23 12:00 - Another active window, led by BTC/ETH and BANK, while DOGE and SNDK also flash elevated counts.
July 24 04:00 - Heat cools across most rows, though BTC/ETH and BANK remain visible.

Some Interesting Insights 👓️

The monthly chart shows the largest wipe came from longs during June 22 - June 24.
The weekly heat-map shows leverage was still active by mid-to-late July, but the pressure was more rotational than systemic.
Both sides got cleaned out, just not evenly: longs first, shorts later, then the usual chop-induced nonsense.
BTC’s stabilization reduced the size of daily liquidation bars, but it did not kill participation.
Early-warning rule: when daily liquidations shrink but the heat-map stays hot, the market is not calm. It is just distributing the pain into smaller time windows.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Man Holds Bag Long Enough That It Now Qualifies As An Heirloom 👴

Jonathan Morgan — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

Man Holds Bag Long Enough That It Now Qualifies As An Heirloom 👴

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $TAO ( ▼ 0.7% ) , $HYPE ( ▲ 2.4% ) , $ROAM ( ▲ 3.2% ) , $AERO ( ▲ 3.8% ) , and $BONK ( ▼ 10.3% )

NEWS
BTC Dominance Rejected Higher? 🤔

This is a short update to the BTC Dominance chart we look at in last Friday’s (July 17) newsletter. In a nutshell, this is what I wrote ✒️:

BTC Dominance Weekly Chart, July 17, 2026 - Click to enlarge

Which brings me to some Gann theory :From the confirmation lower high on the daily chart (not shown) of August 2, 2025, Gann’s Cycle of the Inner Year ends with the 360-day cycle. That happens on July 29, 2026 and it is a little over a week before one of his specific Gann calendar dates: August 8. Gann highlighted August 8 specifically as very important for a change in trend and watch for tops or bottoms.

While it could move higher, there’s a boat load of resistance in the form of the weekly Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen, and the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) that might keep it parked near the bottom of the channel a little longer.

Fast forward to today, and here’s what we’re looking at:

BTC Dominance Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge.

You can see the weekly high hit and then was rejected against the weekly Kijun-Sen and then dropped below the Tenkan-Sen, too. It’s now stuck in between those two levels above it and the bottom of the bear flag.

Additionally, we’re coming up on the 1-year anniversary of the confirmation lower high, so don’t be surprised to see some shenanigans in the next 10 to 14 days. 🧠

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$XLM.X $LINK.X $PYTH.X my advice for the day- while the never ending bear market continues, do not put market orders in to buy anything. Let the dumb sellers come down to your limit orders.
— DA_GOAT (@DA_GOAT)
2:47 PM • Jul 24, 2026

NEWS
One Year Ago, One Of The Craziest Crypto Crimes Occured. I Mean, It’s Really, Really Crazy 🤯

This is, verbatim, what I wrote back on July 24, 2025:

I’ve been involved in crypto since 2015-ish and I’ve been at writing The Litepaper here at Stocktwits for three years. I’ve seen, read, experienced, and written about some crazy stuff. 😐️

But this story, dear readers, has to be the stupidest, craziest and most par-for-the-course story in a long while. And it’s a story we last looked at back in the May 27 Litepaper.

What Happened 🤔

Italian trader Michael Carturan, a 28‑year‑old Italian trader chasing crypto deals, landed in Manhattan on May 6 and got the “welcome to America” nightmare package. 😨

Prosecutors say John Woeltz (self‑anointed Kentucky’s crypto king) and William Duplessie (Miami’s favorite trust‑fund party boy) spent 17 days turning a $24M SoHo townhouse into their private horror show.

Highlights: waterboarding in the marble bathroom, pistol‑whipping on Persian rugs, tequila‑and‑firelight foreplay, chainsaw intimidation, and a cattle prod cameo. When flames flickered, the duo allegedly played fire brigade by urinating on their victim.

All in pursuit of one juicy Bitcoin password.

Defense: Bro, It Was Just Hazing Bro 🙄

Defense lawyers swear the whole thing was “frat‑house hazing.” They rolled courtroom footage of the victim smoking crack, joining an orgy, and crawling in a BDSM collar.

That wasn’t torture, it was just, according to the defense, “17 days of shenanigans.” 👨‍🎓

Prosecution: Um. No. 😶

Prosecutors fired back: victims don’t always scream on cue, especially with a gun to their head and threats to butcher their family. Prosecutor Sarah Khan wanted the pair caged until trial.

She laid out grim evidence:

Pics: Photos of a gun jammed against Carturan’s head (they even made T-shirts!)
Texts: Texts promising to kill his parents.
Medical Reports: Burns, bruises, and ligature marks.
She also dropped the tequila + fire + urine combo on the record, for anyone who still thought “hazing” covered it.
Assistant Cam: Texts show John Woeltz ordering one flunky to “watch the guy” every time the captive touched a phone. Second flunky replies, “Don’t worry I’m watching him,” like this is DoorDash, not felony kidnapping.
Drug Logic: William Duplessie said he and Woeltz had to keep doing drugs because they’d forced the victim to stay high - so solidarity, right?
Broken Toy Brag: Messages boast the Italian trader looked “broken… no more life in his eyes.” That’s the vibe the defense insists was consensual hazing.

What cops hauled out of SoHo Hell: a loaded Glock, hacksaws, drugs, more drugs, more drugs and pills and drugs, zip ties, a chainsaw, body armor, 30 phones, 30 crypto hardware wallets. Oh , and a handwritten “purge foreigners” manifesto detailing how to gain a target’s trust, then “extract” their crypto.

Not Their First Rodeo 🎠

Woeltz and Duplessie have apparently been at these kind of shenanigans before.

Woeltz once held someone hostage in Kentucky for crypto ransom.
Duplessie was probed in Switzerland for domestic violence.
Feds think two more victims exist.

What Did The Judge Do? 😰

Over the DA’s protests, Judge Gregory Carro slapped each man with $1M bail, banned crypto as payment (which they converted into Benjamins and made bail), and handed out ankle monitors.

Duplessie gets beachside confinement in Miami. Woeltz just needs a “court‑approved” couch in New York.

Oh, and because the judge probably confused court mandated sobriety check-ins with felony kidnapping and torture, Woeltz and Duplessie have to phone check in every 72 hours. 📞

Someone call Kalshi and Polymarket because my money is on a Netflix special in a couple years and a Yelp badge for “Best Defense Team in History.”

And if someone wants to talk to you in Soho about crypto, be like Nancy Reagan and Just Say No to SoHo. 🙅

NEWS
SoHo So Bad: Where Are They Now? 🤔

Both men received $1M bail packages in late July 2025. Only Woeltz actually posted his. 🤔

His parents helped secure the bond with cash and property, springing him from Rikers on July 31. He has spent the time since under electronic monitoring and home confinement.

Duplessie could not assemble the original $1M package. The alleged multimillionaire spent nearly a full year at Rikers learning that illiquid wealth remains undefeated.

Source: NYPost

On May 28, 2026, a judge cut his bail to $250,000. Duplessie was released to GPS-monitored house arrest at his father’s Miami home.

Trust-fund party boy to trust-fund indoor cat.

Did The Case Collapse? Nope.

The defense tried getting the indictment dismissed in January. Judge Gregory Carro declined.

The 12-count indictment remains intact, including kidnapping, assault, coercion, attempted grand larceny and weapons charges. Both men still plead not guilty. A conviction on the top counts could bring life in prison.

They did score a procedural win in February when an appeals court tossed a prosecution protective order and demanded a proper discovery hearing.

So What Now?

Prosecutors still have the alleged nightmare pile: blood evidence, injuries, Polaroids, surveillance texts, a loaded gun, chainsaw and cattle prod.

The defense still has footage showing Carturan shopping, smoking, partying and moving around Manhattan.

As of July 24, 2026, both defendants are home. No public trial date. No verdict. No plea deal. The only thing serving a sentence so far is the calendar. 📅

STOCKTWITS
Let’s Talk Futures 👇️

New futures show, hosted by yours truly.

Twitter tweet

NEWS
Justin Sun’s HTX Sanctioned For Helping Russia, No One Surprised 🤷

The EU added HTX to its latest Russia sanctions list, saying the crypto exchange helped Russians evade restrictions on the country’s financial system. HTX joined 17 other crypto-service companies named in the package. 🎁

For those who forgot or don’t know, HTX is controlled by Justin Sun, who bought its controlling stake in 2022. HTX still calls him an advisor which is a charming title for the guy who owns the controlling stake.

The EU action does not include an asset freeze or full designation. It follows UK sanctions against HTX in May over what London called “shadow financial systems” supporting Russia’s war economy.

HTX previously said regulatory compliance remained its “absolute top priority.” European regulators have now responded with the bureaucratic equivalent of “sure, champ.” I mean, pretty much anything attached to Sun has a version of it saying ‘we take compliance seriously’, but apparently not literally.

Also, HTX’s official X posted this at 0900 EST:

Twitter tweet

That looks a lot like the EU flag…

Hidden meaning for good-night (‘gn’)?

So, no shutdown. No frozen assets. Just another major jurisdiction putting HTX on the naughty list while everyone performs a reenactment of shocked Pikachu. 😱

NEWS
Bitcoin Miner Successfully Mines Extremely Rare Chapter 11 Block 🤣

Poolin Technology and two affiliates filed for Chapter 11 in New Jersey on July 22, reporting just $1 million to $10 million in assets against $100 million to $500 million in liabilities. 💵

Mining operations are finished. The remaining crew is guarding equipment and preparing the garage sale.

The collapse, Poolin says, had several reasons. China banned Bitcoin mining in 2021. Bitcoin then fell below $20,000 in June 2022, margin calls arrived, and Poolin Wallet borrowed roughly $213 million against $355.8 million in collateral. Withdrawals were suspended that September. Customers received $163.7 million in IOUs. A second Bitcoin drop below $16,800 helped send the collateral into liquidation.

Texas supplied the sequel. Poolin planned around 600 MW of power, received 100 MW, and wound up with too much equipment and not enough working capital. Its U.S. units accumulated $45.9 million in losses.

Poolin is now pursuing a liquidation, with stalking-horse bids totaling $52 million for two Texas sites. Creditors may recover something.

Proof-of-leverage remains undefeated. 👍️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$DOGE.X I'm not going to spam because I don't care what you invest in. Keep an eye on RWA projects like $CC.X $ONDO.X and many more. That's where the real money will be made in the next cycle.
— Noah Moses (@NoahMoses)
5:04 PM • Jul 24, 2026

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

ETH ETFs were bleeding already - day two volume topped $1B, but net flows were red, led by Grayscale’s brutal outflows.
Solana ETF hopes were heating up - CBOE had filed 19b-4s for Solana ETFs, and two whales staked 238,893 SOL, worth about $41.4M
Mt. Gox payouts finally moved - Bitstamp was set to distribute BTC, ETH, and BCH, while some creditors were already reporting Kraken deposits.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 24

1148 - Second Crusade armies began their disastrous siege of Damascus. They quit 4 days later.
1304 - Edward I captured Stirling Castle using Warwolf, possibly the largest trebuchet ever built.
1411 - The Battle of Harlaw became one of Scotland’s bloodiest medieval fights.
1701 - Antoine de la Mothe Cadillac founded the settlement that became Detroit.
1779 - America launched the Penobscot Expedition, which became its worst naval defeat before Pearl Harbor.
1929 - The Kellogg-Briand Pact outlawing war took effect. War declined to participate.
1935 - Chicago hit 109°F as the Dust Bowl heat wave reached its peak.
1950 - Cape Canaveral launched its first rocket, beginning its career as America’s space parking lot.
1966 - The first BASE jump from El Capitan ended with both jumpers suffering broken bones.
1967 - Charles de Gaulle shouted “Long live free Quebec!” in Montreal and detonated a diplomatic tantrum.
1969 - Apollo 11 returned safely from humanity’s first Moon landing.
1983 - George Brett’s furious charge from the dugout gave baseball the immortal Pine Tar Incident.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

The Outflows Are Like Draining The Pool With A Cocktail Straw

Jonathan Morgan — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 21:32:02 +0000

OVERVIEW

The Outflows Are Like Draining The Pool With A Cocktail Straw 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $WIF ( 0.0% ) , $WLFI ( ▼ 2.1% ) , $KTA ( ▲ 0.1% ) , $CC ( ▼ 11.0% ) , and $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% )

NEWS
Farewell, BitMEX 🫡

BitMEX launched on November 24, 2014, when crypto derivatives were sketchy contracts, thin books, and interfaces that looked medically concerning.

Then came what is known as the first major crypto perp: XBTUSD.

On May 13, 2016, BitMEX launched its Bitcoin perpetual swap with no expiration and leverage up to 100x. It did not invent every ingredient. Robert Shiller had proposed perpetual futures decades earlier. ICBIT had inverse Bitcoin futures. BitMEX took the parts, refined the funding and liquidation machinery, and built the product crypto chose.

By 2019, BitMEX was handling billion-dollar days and sat near the center of Bitcoin price discovery. The Trollbox (their chat) was a zoo. “System overload” was a trading condition. Liquidation alerts became market news.

Then the market moved on. Competitors copied the perp, added more coins, found deeper liquidity, and took the volume. Regulators arrived. Founders pleaded guilty. Yet BitMEX says it never lost customer funds to hacks.

BitMEX closes on September 23, 2026.

Twitter tweet

Still, salute one of the OGs of crypto. Crypto trades the way it does today partly from what BitMEX built.

STOCKTWITS
Let’s Talk Futures 👇️

New futures show, hosted by yours truly.

Twitter tweet

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Exchange Flow Data Says Eleven Guests Announced They Were Leaving, But Nobody Put Their Coat On 🤔

Click to enlarge.

Crypto moving off exchanges (out-flow) is constructive - supply leaving the sell-side, holders taking custody, less inventory sitting where it can be dumped. Coins moving onto exchanges (in-flows) is the opposite, and it usually shows up before someone sells.

I grabbed exchange flow data going from July 1, 2025 to July 23, 2026 for twelve tickers: BTC, ETH, XRP, LINK, UNI, AAVE, ONDO, ENA, SKY, MNY, INJ, and PEPE.

In 358 days of rolling data, eleven or more tickers have gone net-outflow on six of them, all inside a two-week stretch last March. It's also fast: nine days ago the count was six. Half the market flipped constructive in a week and a half, with Fear & Greed in the mid-20s.

Bullish Breadth, Bearish Depth

Click to enlarge.

Four of the twelve are pulling more than 3% of their gross flow off exchanges: LINK at -20%, UNI at -7.9%, PEPE at -3.4%, INJ at -3.3%. The remaining seven sit between zero and -3%, which on most of them is a rounding error wearing a bull costume.

Bitcoin, the deepest book in crypto is functionally flat, and it's being counted as one of the eleven bullish votes.

Two Of The Four Bullish Prints Aren't Bullish

Click to enlarge.

Of the four tickers draining hard enough to notice, two are basically procedural.

$UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) ’s fee-switch governance votes opened on-chain July 19 and closes July 26. UNI parked on an exchange can't vote, so holders pulled them to cast ballots. The massive withdrawal UNI printed on July 20 reads as heavy accumulation and is nothing of the sort - it should reverse into inflows once voting ends, which will read bearish and mean just as little.
$INJ ( ▼ 3.1% ) moved to its native chain via Coinbase between July 16 and 20, running gross flow at the 99th percentile of its history.

That leaves LINK and PEPE as the only ones that can’t be pinned on non-market related activity.

What Real Bullish Flow Looked Like

Click to enlarge.

November 9, 2025, two weeks before the cycle low, produced the most negative average intensity in the sample. LINK draining at -29.7% of gross, SKY at -15.0%, AAVE at -7.8%.

That's accumulation. A few books pulling coins off exchanges with force while the rest sit still. What we have now is the inverse - almost everything leaning constructive, almost nothing committing.

What Would Make Things Bullish

Click to enlarge.

The thing that would make these out-flows look more bullish is not so much the number of entities experiencing out-flows, but the depth.

Two or three books pulling at 8%, 10%, 15% of gross the way LINK, SKY, and AAVE did last November, on gross flow that's rising rather than evaporating. That combination has marked a bottom twice in this data. Eleven books drifting an inch off the sell-side has marked one refill and nothing else.

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

The Total Altcoin Market Cap is trying to retake the 2.5+ year range low.
Any sign of strength on the lower timeframe here and I think we retrace that big down candle from the start of June.
That should also set a solid low for at least a while in my opinion. So many coins have traded hands down at these lows the past few weeks. Would make for a good base to see further relief from.
$OPEN$COIN$DOT.X $XRP.X
— Austin hilton (@Austinhilton)
5:16 PM • Jul 23, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🖥️ Theta Would Like You To Stop Renting A Tank For Groceries

Not every AI job needs the newest GPU with the electrical appetite of a small foundry. $THETA ( ▼ 1.3% ) EdgeCloud is steering inference, media generation, LoRA fine-tuning, streaming, and prototyping toward rentable RTX hardware, while Trainium and Inferentia handle heavier AWS-native training and production inference.

🎓 You Can Now Get a Master’s in Building Our Replacement

AGI has crossed an odd little threshold: the California Institute for Human Science now offers an accredited, fully online master’s degree devoted entirely to it. $ASI ( ▼ 1.9% ) ’s Dr. Ben Goertzel and other field researchers will teach live classes covering the technical work alongside consciousness, ethics, and social consequences. Begins September 28.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🏛️ Ondo Gets the Regulatory Keys to the Stock Cabinet

FINRA authorizations now let $ONDO ( ▼ 5.0% ) subsidiary Oasis Pro Markets support primary offerings and secondary trading for tokenized stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, index funds, and IPO securities under U.S. oversight. Investors can access them through existing brokers, advisers, and retirement accounts, then settle in fiat or supported stablecoins.

💳 Brazilian Credit-Card IOUs Land on Avalanche

A merchant takes a card payment today but receives the cash later; nOPAL buys that receivable at a discount and collects when Visa or Mastercard settles it. $PLUME ( ▲ 8.7% ) and BlackOpal have packaged those Brazilian receivables into an $AVAX ( ▲ 1.0% ) vault claiming a 0% default rate since inception, third-party audits, and $200 million-plus in institutional backing.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$DOGE.X I am buying into the fear. The best time to buy is when everyone is afraid. I have loaded the boat at these levels. GL
— Pro Golfer (@GolfPlayer)
2:54 PM • Jul 23, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

👻 Your NFTs Finally Found Part-Time Work

Spirit Clicker is a browser and Telegram idle game where tapping spirits earns Essence, heroes fight while you are gone, and bosses occasionally demand actual finger movement. Link an $ENJ ( ▼ 2.1% ) Wallet and Stropeverse NFTs boost damage and offline rewards, though the game remains playable without one. Weekly PvP even separates NFT-assisted players from the no-NFT crowd - sensible, rare, and slightly suspicious behavior from a crypto game.

🔧 Polymesh v8 Removes Several Forms in Triplicate

$POLYX ( ▼ 1.2% ) users can now create on-chain identities without a CDD provider, receive transfers automatically, and hold fungible tokens or NFTs directly in accounts. Developers also get EVM compatibility, standard Ethereum tooling, and allowance-style asset permissions; confidential transfers remain on Testnet while audits continue.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🧨 DeFi’s Weakest Link Keep Costing Millions

More than $630 million has reportedly disappeared through oracle, keeper, hook, and offchain-verification failures in 2026, including $285 million at Drift and $292 million at KelpDAO. $BNT ( ▲ 0.3% ) says Carbon DeFi avoids several of those dependency classes through user-defined prices, native auto-compounding, and built-in order logic instead of external oracles, keepers, or hooks.

🇺🇸 Casper Finds a Bigger Door Into the U.S.

A Kraken listing gives eligible U.S. users direct access to $CSPR ( ▲ 1.9% ) while Casper rebuilds around regulated assets and machine commerce. Its AI Toolkit already includes x402 payments, MCP tools, and agent skills, so the token now has a larger market beside the infrastructure.

🪪 Uniswap Adds a Guest List to the Liquidity Pool

Permissioned Pools use $UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) v4 hooks to check an issuer-controlled ‘allowlist’ before anyone trades or provides liquidity in regulated assets. Superstate, Securitize, and Dowgo helped build the standard for tokenized funds, securities, and equities, while ordinary Uniswap pools stay permissionless.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🛡️ Hashi Gives Bitcoin Collateral a Second Set of Brakes

Would institutions lend against native BTC if suspicious transfers could be stopped before the collateral left? Hashi’s $SUI ( ▼ 0.2% ) testnet is testing exactly that through a Guardian Layer requiring both validator MPC approval and a guardian signature for BTC collateral movements. More than 25 partners can now integrate ahead of mainnet.

🧪 Polkadot Opens the Break-It-For-Free Version

Want to test a $DOT ( ▼ 0.8% ) app without lighting real money on fire? The new Products Devnet gives builders working versions of its mobile, desktop, and web environments, plus tools for smart contracts, .dot domains, identities, and app publishing. It expands the setup tested by roughly 900 people at Berlin’s Web3 Summit into a public playground where damage is educational.

₿ Stacks Spent Q2 Teaching Bitcoin to Earn Rent

$STX ( ▼ 2.1% ) new active wallets jumped roughly 50% quarter over quarter to 110,000, while daily users rose 55% to about 4,200. PoX-5 Bitcoin Staking reached public testnet and audit ahead of a Q3 mainnet launch, backed by Fireblocks and UTXO Management. Oh, and BitFlow passed $5 billion in transaction value.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

CLARITY AcT Text Is Here 🎭️

Jonathan Morgan — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 02:01:12 +0000

OVERVIEW

CLARITY ACT Text Is Here 🎭️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers:

NEWS
Your Alma Mater Is About To Have A Ticker 🤯

LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, Texas A&M.

Five schools, five Fan Tokens, first ones ever issued in American college sports. $CHZ ( ▼ 1.4% ) wants 30 athletic departments on the platform inside twelve months, which would put more of the Big Ten and SEC on-chain than most people expected to see this decade.

What holding one gets you:

Votes on fan-facing decisions at your school
Access to experiences that used to require knowing somebody in the athletic department
Rewards that stack the longer you hold
A slice of token revenue routed to student-athletes through NIL, administered by Playfly, visible on-chain instead of buried in a donor report

Oh ya, then there’s this insanely novel mechanic: the supply moves with performance. Twelve scheduled events a season, each one forecastable, none of them knowable, market repricing the moment the outcome lands.

And for those not in the know, or if you forgot, there’s some big sports entities already in the Chiliz/Socios portfolio. What entities you ask? Oh some you probably have heard of before in the soccer/football word: Barcelona, PSG, Juventus, Man City, Argentina.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$SOL.X bouta get loose
— T. Stonk (@Thelonius_Stonk)
3:17 PM • Jul 22, 2026

NEWS
So This Is Cool: Partial Dollarisation Is The Worst Place To Stand 👍️

Buried in the annex tables of BIS Working Paper 1370 is a bit of an interesting find regarding stablecoins.

The authors ran an inflation-at-risk framework across 91 emerging economies and sorted them by how much of their bank deposits sit in dollars rather than local currency. Then they asked: what that does to inflation the following year?

Three groups, three different answers.

Countries with almost no dollar deposits: nothing. The effect is small and the statistics can't separate it from zero.

Click to enlarge.

Countries somewhere between 8% and 25% dollarised: inflation runs about two percentage points hotter than comparable countries. And not only in the bad years. Calm year or ugly one, the entire range shifts up by roughly the same amount.

Countries in the top quarter, deeply dollarised: inflation comes in lower, and the further into the bad scenarios you look, the wider the gap. Around three points lower in a typical year. More than nine points lower in the worst ones. Those economies borrow the Fed's credibility whether they ever asked for it or not.

Now Put Stablecoins In It

They also looked at stablecoin inflows across 184 countries and found a couple interesting tid bits:

First, stablecoins and dollar bank deposits barely substitute for each other. Somebody buying USDT in Buenos Aires is not closing a dollar account to do it. The dollarisation stacks rather than swaps.
Second, capital controls don't touch it. Approval requirements drop dollar deposit shares from over 30% to about 5%. Applied to stablecoins, the effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero across every restriction category tested.

In a nutshell, stablecoins have become a dollarisation channel that policy can't slow down, and it responds to inflation and banking trouble faster than a bank account ever could.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

midday tape finally got a clean bite above $66K.

$65K is still the plate. eth is knocking at $1,946, but brent near $93.4 keeps dessert rationed. $BTC.X $ETH.X $SOL.X $USO
— jonos (@Jonos_SC)
4:14 PM • Jul 22, 2026

NEWS
Criminals Suck 💪

Speaking of things with the number 5, The U.S. Attorney's Office for DC filed five civil forfeiture complaints yesterday (Tuesday) and clawed back more than $25 million in crypto. Five cases, five recoveries.

$12,086,914 from romance schemes that took over 200 victims, laundered through hundreds of intermediary addresses and mixed with other people's money.
$10,400,913 from a wallet cluster Canadian authorities flagged back in late 2024, unwinding 270-plus victim transactions.
$2,392,231 frozen across six addresses. $1,230,900 from a DC-area investor who tried to withdraw and watched the counterparty go dark.
And the one worth $285,000 may seem small, but it will boil your blood: A fraud victim got contacted by a second crew claiming they'd recovered the stolen funds. He paid a fee to get robbed again.

Trails ran back to Southeast Asia, IPs in China, Malaysia, and Cambodia.

This is Scam Center Strike Force work, the unit Jeanine Pirro stood up in November 2025. Running total north of $800 million.

Secret Service wants anyone who thinks they got taken to file at ic3.gov.

NEWS
Indexes Be Indexing 📇

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera Capital launched the S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index yesterday.

Rules-based construction, screened for tokens and companies with real usage and actual revenue.
Explicitly routes around momentum names, meme coins, and Bitcoin.
Holds tokens and equities.

To quote, verbatim, from the presser: The index helps global investors move beyond name recognition and single-asset indices, offering a more disciplined and transparent way to measure investments in the blockchain and digital asset space. It’s also designed to be used as a reference for new investment products or for managers who actively pick digital assets.

NEWS
This Is Funny 😆

Worth the watch.

Twitter tweet

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$HBAR.X trending because of clarity. We're getting a preview of who the winners will be.
— S@lamand3r (@salamand3r)
3:31 AM • Jul 22, 2026

NEWS
The Most Lamentable Tragedie Of Ladie CLARITIE 🤯

It’s the CLARITY Act but as a Five Act Tragedy.

A drama in five acts, six hundred sixteen pages, and one sunset. Staged upon the Senate floor before August 7, or possibly never.

PROLOGUE

CHORUS: Two chambers, both alike in dysfunction, In fair Washington, where we lay our scene. A bill is born, and stalls, and is reborn, Six hundred sixteen pages, give or take, And no man yet has read the whole of it.

ACT I - THE BIRTH

Lady Clarity is born in the Lower House, 294 to 134, July of 2025, with 70-plus Democrats crossing the aisle to bless the child. She is carried to the Senate, laid upon the Calendar at No. 423, and sleeps for a year. A July 4 signing target is set, celebrated in advance, and missed.

CHORUS: Legislation is mostly waiting.

ACT II - THE COMMITTEE

The Banking Committee performs surgery without anesthetic. Out comes the House's "mature blockchain" heart; in goes one stitched from ancillary assets and network tokens. She advances, 15 to 9. But a pale figure rises through the floorboards.

GHOST OF ETHICS: Remember me.

An amendment to bind the Crown's own holdings dies 11 to 13, on party lines. The Ghost does not leave. Ghosts never do.

CHORUS: The Crown's 2025 disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income, some $636 million from a single memecoin. The Seven said: no conflict-of-interest language, no sixty votes. That threat held for fourteen months.

ACT III - THE CROWN RELENTS

Senators come and go behind palace doors. Then, on the evening of July 20, word escapes: the Crown has signed off on ethics language, sent that afternoon to friendly Senators. The Seven receive nothing. They learn of the bargain from a thing that used to be a blue bird.

CHORUS: Note what that isn't. It isn't a deal. It's one side of a deal, announced.

ACT IV - THE TEXT REVEALED

July 22. A clerk wheels in the substitute on a hand truck.

Scene 1 - The Death of Yield

YIELD: What, must I die, who only paid four percent on idle balances?

A VOICE FROM THE TEXT (Sec. 10404): No covered party shall pay any form of interest or yield to a restricted recipient solely in connection with the holding of payment stablecoins.

YIELD falls. REWARDS steps over the body.

REWARDS: Weep not. Rewards for bona fide activity live on - and may be calculated, friends, by reference to thy balance and thy tenure.

CHORUS: Plain version. GENIUS barred issuers from paying yield; this extends the ban to exchanges, wallets, and affiliates - nothing to U.S. persons for merely holding stablecoins, nor anything "functionally equivalent" to deposit interest. Idle-balance rewards are dead. But the carve-outs are wide: rewards tied to transactions, liquidity, collateral, staking, governance, and loyalty programs survive, and may be sized by balance and duration. That door is open.

Scene 2 - The Coronation of the Commodity Regulator

COMMODITY REGULATOR: For decades have I supped on soybean oil. Now am I made exclusive sovereign lord Of every spot market in digital commodities. (aside) Would that I had the staff for half of it.

CHORUS: Exclusive CFTC spot jurisdiction - the largest mandate expansion in the agency's history - with a 360-day rules clock, new registration categories for exchanges, brokers, dealers, and custodians, and express permission for margin financing. The aside is the punchline. The agency is short-handed and now owes dozens of rulemakings.

Scene 3 - The Knighting of the ETF Class

HERALD: Any network token that was the principal asset of a listed spot ETP as of January 1, 2026 shall be, by statute, not a security. Rise, Bitcoin. Rise, Ether. Rise, all ye altcoins who secured a fund before the New Year's bell.

CHORUS: Commodity status written into federal law, no certification required. "Mature blockchain" appears in this text zero times. In its place, the ancillary asset regime: disclosure over registration, exemption of the greater of $50M/year or 10% of outstanding value, $200M lifetime cap, anti-fraud intact, and the SEC ordered to write "Regulation Crypto."

Scene 5 - The Ghost Examined

The GHOST OF ETHICS is made flesh - Division C. The terms, read aloud:

Covered officials - President, VP, Congress, judges - and spouses may not issue or sponsor a digital asset for consideration in office. Children: not covered.
Enforcement belongs to DOJ alone. State AGs and private plaintiffs barred - the opposite of the Seven's demand.
Penalties: disgorgement, plus 10% of consideration or $500,000, whichever is less. Run that against a $636 million memecoin and admire the ceiling.
Officials may still hold crypto. Prior ventures go to blind trusts; grandfathered name-and-likeness assets keep minting.

THE SUNSET (rising): All of this ends at noon, January 20, 2029.

Silence. The date is the end of the current presidential term, to the minute. No one on stage remarks upon it.

Scene 6 - The Bodies Offstage

CHORUS: Dead: the anti-CBDC provisions, gone entirely, traded away for something, to someone. Spared: customer crypto is customer property in bankruptcy, closing the Celsius wound. Self-hosted wallets protected. Software devs get safe harbors for nodes, validation, and code. Tokenized securities get parity. And DeFi gets a lane and a leash - developer protections on one page, Treasury special-measure powers and temporary holds on another.

ACT V - THE UNWRITTEN ENDING

LADY CLARITY: We all must wait for the date.

THE SEVEN do not move. The recess bell, August 7, does not ring.

CHORUS (house lights half up): Proper tragedy ends with bodies and a Fortinbras sweeping up. If it passes, it's the most consequential crypto law in American history and this play becomes a comedy, which is to say a story ending in a wedding and probably a divorce.

FINIS. Or intermission. Nobody knows which.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 22

1298 - Edward I’s longbowmen crushed William Wallace’s army at the Battle of Falkirk.
1342 - The St. Mary Magdalene’s Flood caused catastrophic destruction across Central Europe.
1456 - A badly outnumbered Christian army stopped Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II at Belgrade.
1587 - English settlers reached Roanoke Island
1833 - Britain’s House of Commons passed legislation abolishing slavery across most of the empire.
1862 - Abraham Lincoln showed his Cabinet the first draft of the Emancipation Proclamation.
1894 - The world’s first organized automobile race ran from Paris to Rouen.
1934 - FBI agents shot John Dillinger outside a Chicago movie theater.
1942 - Nazi Germany began mass deportations from the Warsaw Ghetto to Treblinka.
1944 - Soviet troops reached Majdanek, the first major Nazi concentration camp liberated by Allied forces.
1951 - Dezik and Tsygan became the first dogs launched into space and returned alive.
1992 - Pablo Escobar escaped from La Catedral, the luxury prison he largely designed himself.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

From Doom Scrolling To Yacht Shopping In Two Days 🤯

Jonathan Morgan — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 22:15:53 +0000

OVERVIEW

From Doom Scrolling To Yacht Shopping In Two Days 🤯

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $PEPE ( ▲ 1.4% ) , $SOL ( ▲ 0.7% ) , $JASMY ( ▼ 3.2% ) , $KENDU ( ▲ 0.5% ) , and $NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% )

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Opposite Sides Of Every Trade - Funds Short, Retail Long, 25ish Times Over 😱

I hosted our first Stocktwits Live with Tradier this morning - a futures 101, heavy on oil. It's going to be a weekly-ish thing, and since my whole morning was futures, I pulled the COT report to see how people are positioned in crypto in the regulated markets.

What the COT report is

What it shows: open interest sorted by trader type - who's long, who's short, and who's on each side.
When it drops: Fridays, but it's a snapshot from the prior Tuesday's close.
Where crypto lives: the Traders in Financial Futures cut - CME Bitcoin and Ether, the micros, and Coinbase's nano and perp-style contracts.
Who to watch: Leveraged Funds (the fast hedge-fund and CTA money, the ‘professional’ big money traders) versus Non-Reportable (small traders).

A couple years ago the COT was one Bitcoin contract and a lonely micro Bitcoin line. Now it's 30 deep - $CME ( ▼ 0.38% ) standards, micros, and a whole $COIN ( ▲ 0.59% ) perp-and-nano zoo covering HYPE, ONDO, Sui, Hedera, even Zcash.

I honestly thought this would be just a small part of the newsletter, but it’s instead turned into the whole thing because some of the stats are just insane.

Leveraged funds are net short 28 of the 30 contracts. Small traders are net long 27 of them.

But let’s get into some of the nitty gritty here. 👇️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$XRP.X holding for the 10 dollar pop maybe end 2026
— dkm11 (@dkm11)
11:27 AM • Jul 21, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Where Everyone Is Parked 🚗

Click To Enlarge

28 Of 30, Net Short - Leveraged desks are net short almost every crypto contract the CFTC tracks, at the same time.

Retail is net short exactly three contracts, and they're the three that matter -Small traders are net long 27 of 30. The three exceptions: standard $CME ( ▼ 0.38% ) $BT_F ( 0.0% ) (-186), standard XRP (-105), standard $SOL ( ▲ 0.7% ) (-53). Those are precisely the institution-sized contracts.

The four biggest fund shorts are all Coinbase nano perps - Nano Ether perp -80,309. Nano Solana perp -24,168. Nano XRP perp -19,974. Nano Bitcoin perp -19,118. The four largest net shorts in the report, in order, and every one of them is a nano perp.

Solana is arguing with itself across venues - Standard SOL saw funds turn bullish (+540, the best swing among the CME bunch). Nano SOL perp saw funds slam on shorts (-8,746, the biggest bearish swing in the whole report). Same coin, same week, opposite bet.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
What Sucks, And What Doesn’t 🤷

Click to enlarge.

Sui has zero leveraged longs. Zero - Not "a few." Not "a small book." Zero long contracts held by any leveraged fund. All 2,556 are on the short side.

Avalanche is shorted 30 to 1 - 155 long. 4,737 short. A 30-to-1 lean from leveraged funds, the most lopsided real position on the board once you set Sui's shutout aside.

Cardano is a 10-to-1 short, and it's getting heavier - 712 long against 7,114 short, net short 6,402, and funds added 1,006 to it. One of the heaviest alt shorts in the book in absolute terms.

Zcash flipped net long. It's the only one that did - Every alt in the book has funds leaning short. Except Zcash, where leveraged money sits 3,142 long against 2,288 short - net long 854. And they got there in a single week, swinging +892 from a net short of 38.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$MSTR better off buying $BTC.X MSTR is now extremely diluted and doesn’t run with bitcoin as well. Bitcoin is up 11% on the month and MSTR is down big.
Stay short
— BittyisGarbage (@buhbye)
2:37 PM • Jul 21, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
The Nano ‘Casino’ 🎰

Click to enlarge.

Funds are short 80,309 contracts of nano Ether. Net - Nano Ether perp on Coinbase: 21,313 long against 101,622 short, net short 80,309. That is the single biggest position in the entire table by more than 3x - the next largest net short is nano Solana perp at 24,168.

A "nano" contract is carrying six figures on both sides - First off, I forgot there was a Bitcoin Cash futures product. Second, who the hell is trading it and cares about it??? Anyway, Nano Bitcoin cash: 104,500 long, 107,764 short. Over one hundred thousand contracts on each side of a product with "nano" in the name.

Retail's second-biggest long anywhere is a leveraged XRP perp - Nano XRP perp: small traders net long 4,649, second only to nano ETH perp on the retail side. Funds are short 19,974 of the same contract.

Small traders are 9-to-1 long ONDO - 757 long, 81 short on the non-reportable line - a 9.3-to-1 retail conviction lean, the most one-sided in the set. On an RWA token. Against a fund base that's net short 2,714.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
What Moved? 🤔

Click to enlarge.

The biggest bullish move on the board is a short getting yanked - Nano Bitcoin perp swung +18,755 in net, the largest single move in the table. Generally, that’s more of a sign of short covering than a sudden rush of conviction on being long.

The ETH short conviction best shown in the micro contract - Micro Ether: funds added 6,152 of fresh net short, the second-biggest bearish swing on the board, layered on top of an already 10,976 net short. Standard Ether is short too, but the micro is where the selling pressed hardest.

Funds are selling the hottest ticker straight into retail's hands - $HYPE ( ▲ 2.4% ) perp: leveraged money net short 2,702, and they piled on the biggest fresh short-adds of any single-name alt perp (-1,418). On the other side, small traders are net long 1,065.

Stellar has the cleanest squeeze setup in the table -
Funds net short 2,656 and adding (-360 on the week, one of the bigger short-adds). Retail net long 975 and adding (+157). If $XLM ( ▲ 0.2% ) ever catches a real bid, that's a lot of leveraged short sitting above it.

Solana retail flipped to the short side - Standard SOL small traders went from net long 44 to net short 53 (a -97 swing). Tiny in size, but it's one of the only places in the report where the two groups are doing the same thing.

XRP is the deadest ticker here - In a week where nano perps moved five figures, standard XRP barely twitched: leveraged net changed by 36 contracts, retail by 22. Everything around it is thrashing.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$NIGHT.X Just have to let it play out:
Midnight $NIGHT.X is down 26% today after a whale started selling millions of tokens a few hours ago, more than 10M $ADA.X and counting. That wallet still holds more than 200M $NIGHT.X.
— Gypsy (@GypsyGirl2)
2:16 PM • Jul 21, 2026

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

The main piece introduced LAR - the Leverage Absorption Ratio, a custom metric combining price change, open-interest velocity, and volatility to see whether leverage is being absorbed cleanly or stacked like kindling near a flamethrower.
SOL, SUI, and AVAX looked healthiest short-term - all scored above 5, meaning price was absorbing the leverage instead of choking on it.
UMA ripped on Polymarket’s U.S. return deal - Polymarket bought QCEX for $112M, gaining a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, while UMA got attention because its oracle powers key prediction-market resolution.
The RWA and DeFi side kept moving - Ondo’s USDY headed to Sei, Stellar pushed “Stable Summer,” Aave risk models looked sturdy, NEAR Intents expanded to Sui, Starknet funded validators, and LTO bailed on its L1 for Base.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 21

356 BC - The Temple of Artemis was burned by Herostratus
365 - A massive Crete earthquake sent a tsunami into Alexandria
1403 - Henry IV beat Hotspur at Shrewsbury, ending the Percy rebellion and giving England one more crown-defense bloodbath.
1545 - French forces landed on the Isle of Wight
1718 - The Treaty of Passarowitz was signed
1798 - Napoleon won the Battle of the Pyramids
1831 - Leopold I became the first King of the Belgians
1861 - The First Battle of Bull Run wrecked Union optimism
1865 - Wild Bill Hickok killed Dave Tutt in Springfield
1873 - Jesse James’ gang robbed a moving train near Adair, Iowa
1944 - U.S. forces landed on Guam
1969 - Apollo 11 lifted off from the Moon
1972 - Bloody Friday hit Belfast
1983 - Vostok Station recorded Earth’s coldest measured temperature, dropping to -128.6°F

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Crypto Has Entered Its “Don’t Make Eye Contact” Phase 👀

Jonathan Morgan — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 21:32:01 +0000

OVERVIEW

Crypto Has Entered Its “Don’t Make Eye Contact” Phase 👀

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $XRP ( ▼ 1.1% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) , $MELANIA ( ▼ 0.6% ) , $DOG ( ▲ 5.8% ) , and $BNB ( ▼ 0.1% )

Click to enlarge.

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

So. The market is green. It feels good. But how do you feel about it?

Click to enlarge.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ETH Continues To Outperform BTC 😯

If you think altcoins, and Ethereum in particular, are doing poorly against Bitcoin, you’d be partially right. For the majority of altcoins, and I mean 96% of them, they’re sucking against Bitcoin.

But you’d be wrong if you thought Ethereum was doing poorly against Bitcoin. If you’re like me and you look at this market day after day, you sometimes forget to zoom out and take a look at the bigger picture.

Looking at this ETH/BTC daily chart going back to the beginning of September 2025 and thought: wow, BTC is kicking ETH’s ass. And you might think that only recently (June 6, 2026) things started to look better.

ETHBTC Daily Chart, September 2025 to July 20, 2026 - Click to enlarge.

But zoom out further, and things look a little better.

ETHBTC Daily Chart, April 2025 to July 20, 2026 - Click to enlarge.

The most recent major swing low for ETH/BTC was 0.01765 on April 22, 2025. It’s currently up +65.35% from that low, and +15.6% from the June 27, 2026 low. And if things keep going the way they are, it’s likely ETH will get some renewed pressure against BTC.

STOCKTWITS
Using Stocktwits’ Data 💻️

A Stocktwits stream gives you two very handy little tells above the chart: the Sentiment Score and Message Volume Score.

Sentiment measures the crowd’s lean. Are people broadly bullish or bearish? Message Volume measures participation. Are 10 people talking, or did the whole neighborhood find a keyboard? Neither is a trading signal by itself. Price still gets the final vote.

What I care about is the gap between the two.

After a hard decline, I want to see price stabilize, then Sentiment start recovering while Message Volume stays muted. That tells me the mood has improved, but the crowd has not yet turned it into a group project.

$SOL ( ▲ 0.7% ) and $ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) fit that profile right now.

Click to enlarge.

Both got hit earlier this month, then pushed their Sentiment Scores back near 65. Healthy enough. Their Message Volume Scores, though, remain down in the low 40s. Price is trying to repair. People aren’t exactly stampeding through the gate.

TL;DR - even though sentiment and price are ticking higher, it’s like no one has noticed the move yet. When they do? Could be fun.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$MSTR$BTC.X $ETH.X $XRP.X
Buying weekly puts into $86 here you squids are toast
— Michael Failure (@MichaelFailure)
4:00 PM • Jul 20, 2026

NEWS
BitMine Hit Buy, Just Not On Ethereum 🤔

$BMNR ( ▲ 3.01% ) now owns 5.78 million ETH, or 4.8% of the entire supply. The company is 96% of the way to its “Alchemy of 5%” target.

Then last week it added only 7,430 ETH.

Why slow down with the finish line right there? Well, BitMine hit buy on 5.5 million shares of its own stock instead, spending roughly $85.9 million at an average price of $15.6156.

The current pile:

5.78 million ETH worth roughly $10.9 billion
4.92 million ETH staked
$247 million in projected annual staking revenue
$385 million in cash and marketable securities
207 BTC
$238 million spread across 2 “moonshot” investments

Total holdings: $11.5 billion.

BitMine says the buyback was accretive for shareholders. Maybe. It also means the world’s largest Ethereum treasury paused near its 5% finish line to purchase itself.

NEWS
MetaMask Hired The Guy On The Warning List 🤦

Consensys reportedly hired a suspected North Korean IT operative who contributed to core MetaMask wallet code for a month. He worked under the alias Tyler Knapp, used the GitHub handle imyugioh, and was removed in April. Well. That is not good.

According to Protos, security researcher Zun says the individual had been publicly flagged in September 2025 on the Security Alliance’s Lazarus Group tracking site. On that page, he appears as Mauro Liu, with a history tied to a parade of Web3 firms, including Ankr, Pickle Finance, Napier Finance, and MagicCraft.

Worse: his MetaMask work touched code used by third-party payment providers converting crypto and fiat. The company says he arrived via an outside service provider, was identified quickly, lost access, and an investigation found no stolen assets or data, no malicious code, and no user-safety impact.

Still, “we caught the suspected state-sponsored infiltrator after hiring him” is not a security victory lap. North Korean IT-worker schemes have been a known industry problem for years. And a public tracker reportedly had this name months before the job began.

Shoutout to Protos for spotting the obvious question: how did that not stop the hire?

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$HBAR.X Bagholder here with over 67,500 shares. Have finally got my average to .1196
Would be great to get back to where i bought initially at .41 no choice but to be!!
— Kerry T (@GreenProphet22)
12:18 AM • Jul 19, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

🔐 NEAR Packs An Umbrella For The Quantum Forecast

$NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% ) ’s 2.13 mainnet upgrade adds NIST-approved ML-DSA signatures, letting accounts rotate to keys designed to resist future quantum attacks. Dynamic resharding also lets overloaded shards split automatically in roughly 1.5 epochs, removing the validator wrangling previously needed to add capacity.

🦓 Someone Wants $18,000 To Bully Zebra Professionally

A developer is asking $ZEC ( ▲ 3.5% ) Community Grants for $18,000 and eight weeks to build a permanent attack-testing suite for Zebra’s mempool. The Rust harness would simulate malicious but valid transaction patterns, test ZIP 401 eviction rules, reproduce issue #10684, and run continuously in CI. It cannot stop counterfeiting or chain splits; the goal is preventing resource exhaustion, stalled transactions, and censorship.

🤖 The Bots Can Pay; Treasury Wants Adult Supervision

Agentic payment rails work, but institutional usage remains tiny: MPPScan shows $240,000 across 1.7 million transactions, while Keyrock counted $73 million across 176 million mostly sub-$0.30 payments. $USDC ( 0.0% ) reportedly settles 98.6% of agent-initiated transactions, though identity, delegation, limits, audits, and recourse still block serious corporate volume.

⚡ Algorand Applies For The Agent Economy’s Cash Register Job

$ALGO ( ▲ 2.4% ) says its 2.8-second deterministic finality, flat sub-cent fees, and capacity up to 10,000 TPS make it suited for agents buying tiny services repeatedly. Mainnet has supported x402 payments since February 2026 through GoPlausible, letting developers sell data, compute, actions, or verification as individually priced endpoints. Demand remains small and experimental, but the machinery works.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

🗳️ Tokenized Stocks Discover Shareholders Have Opinions

Alpaca is adding Broadridge’s governance infrastructure to its Instant Tokenization Network so tokenized-equity holders can receive disclosures, reconcile voting rights, and cast proxy votes. The system covers retail and institutional investors across different chains and holding structures, helping digital shares retain the rights attached to old-fashioned ones.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🌉 Allbridge Gets Robbed With Its Own Favorite Tool

Allbridge paused operations after an attacker used a $1.12 million Kamino flash loan to manipulate its Solana USDC/USDT pool and extract roughly $1.65 million. The funds were bridged to Ethereum and converted into ETH, while affected liquidity providers were told to withdraw. This follows Allbridge’s $570,000 BNB Chain exploit in 2023.

🗄️ Filecoin Wants Block Rewards To Learn Sales

Draft proposal FIP-0118, called Solstice, would scrap $FIL ( ▲ 1.3% ) Plus and give every new storage sector equal reward treatment without datacap approvals. It would initially redirect 5% of block rewards to Service Orchestrators bringing paying customers, with that share rising only when quarterly Filecoin Pay volume clears preset targets; missed allocations get burned.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$HBAR.X clarity act 2029, right in line with BTC 4 year cycle ATH. Legislation was pre programmed to follow the cycle, we live in a simulation.
— Andrew hartley (@2l84me1)
1:22 PM • Jul 18, 2026

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 20

356 BC - Alexander the Great was born, probably July 20 or 21
70 - Roman forces stormed Jerusalem’s Fortress of Antonia
792 - Bulgaria beat Byzantium at Marcellae
1592 - Japanese forces captured Pyongyang during the Imjin War
1715 - Britain’s Riot Act received royal assent, letting authorities order crowds to disperse or face brutal penalties
1810 - Bogotá’s revolt kicked off Colombia’s independence process
1848 - The Seneca Falls Convention wrapped its second day, passing the women’s suffrage resolution
1871 - British Columbia joined Canadian Confederation
1881 - Sitting Bull surrendered to the U.S. Army
1917 - America’s World War I draft lottery began
1944 - Stauffenberg’s bomb failed to kill Hitler, and Operation Valkyrie collapsed
1951 - Jordan’s King Abdullah I was assassinated in Jerusalem
1969 - Apollo 11 landed on the Moon
1976 - Viking 1 landed on Mars

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 29

Jonathan Morgan — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 16:30:00 +0000

OVERVIEW

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 29

Welcome to the Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive for Week 29 of 2026! 📊

In this issue, we'll dive into the data to keep you informed about the progress of the overall crypto market and shine a spotlight on emerging and established trends.

What You’ll Find In The Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive has three main objectives:

Total and Altcoin caps, stamped with YTD moves and the gap to ATH.
Seven-layer market-cap recap (TMC ex-stables, ex-top-50, and five more flavors).
Crypto Index Performance covering 12 indices.
The Liquidation Station boards the train with 30-day totals plus a 7-day heatmap for maximum schadenfreude.
Market Heatmap, Social Volume Heatmap, Active Address Heatmap.
ETF scorecards for BTC and ETH still tracking 7- and 30-day flows.

So, without further delay, let's jump right into the data from week 29 and explore its intriguing insights! 🚀

CRYPTO
Crypto Market Cap Update

What is the broader trend within the crypto market? The simplest way to track this is by using three market cap charts. So let's see what we got. 🔭

Total Market Cap

All-Time High Close: $4.22 trillion
YTD: -28%
From ATH: -49%

Click to enlarge.

Altcoin Market Cap

All-Time High: $1.73 trillion
YTD: -27%
From ATH: -49%

Click to enlarge.

CRYPTOTWITS
Missed An Issue This Week? I Got Ya Right Here 👇️

Here’s this week’s Cryptotwits newsletters. That you probably read already. Maybe. Probably.

Monday - Market Somehow Pulls Ladder Out From Under Itself, Defies Science 🤔

Tuesday - Everybody's Underwater And Nobody's Selling 👍️

Wednesday - Hope Is Back Like A Drunk Uncle With A Pontoon ⛴️

Thursday - I'm Emotionally Available For Gains And Emotionally Prepared For Disappointment 😶

Friday - Crypto Price Action: A Roomba Trapped Under the Couch 🤖

CRYPTO
Stocktwits Crypto Index RRG

Leading Quadrant (green) - You're a champ! 🏆 You're ahead of everyone else, and the crowd is cheering. But watch out; you might be overdoing it.
Weakening Quadrant (yellow) - You're slowing down 😓 and losing your lead. Maybe you're a bit demoralized because your biggest fan didn't show up. You're now in the middle of the pack.
Lagging Quadrant (red) - Disaster strikes! 😱 You're injured, exhausted, or just made a big mistake. You're now in last place, and it's a sad scene.
Improving Quadrant (blue) - Time for a comeback! 💪 Your motivation returns, the music swells, and you're picking up speed. You're back in the middle, catching up with the leaders.

Analyzing the RRG Examples

The GIF below shows the past 21 days of movement on the RRG.

The GIF below shows the past 13 weeks of movement on the RRG.

CRYPTO
Weekly Total Market Cap (TMC) Performance

Index	Value	Weekly Performance
TMC Excluding BTC and ETH	$666B	-1%
TMC Excluding BTC and Stablecoins	$607B	+1%
TMC Excluding BTC, ETH, and Stablecoins	$385B	-3%
TMC Excluding Stablecoins	$1.89T	+1%
TMC Excluding Top 10	$169B	-1%
TMC Excluding Top 50	$36B	0%
TMC Excluding Top 100	$6B	0%

CRYPTO
Weekly Crypto Index Performance

Index	Weekly Performance
AI	+3%
Decentralized Finance	+2%
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure	+3%
Exchange Tokens	-1%
Layer 1	+2%
Meme	-6%
Proof-Of-Stake	+3%
Proof-Of-Work	+1%
Real World Asset Tokenization	+1%
Rehypothecated	+2%
Smart Contracts	+3%
Stablecoins	-1%

CRYPTO
Liquidation Station 😱

Interested in how much has been flushed out of leveraged long and short positions? Who’s getting hurt the most? This is the best place to get an idea of how leveraged positions are doing. 🔴

30-day Total Liquidations 📆

What You’re Looking At

Green bars above zero = longs blown out because price fell.
Red bars below zero = shorts blown out because price ripped.
Left-hand scale is U.S. dollars (millions); the dashed line near the top sits at $1B.

30-day Total Crypto Liquidation Chart - Click to enlarge.

June 18 - Early long-side hit around $350M-$400M while BTC was still trying to stabilize. Longs took the first real slap of the window.
June 22 - June 24 - Main long-side wipe. Long liquidations ramp from roughly $500M to nearly $800M, with BTC dipping toward the low-$60Ks.
June 29 - July 1 - Shorts get clipped for roughly $250M-$300M as price stops falling and rebounds. The late bears found out bottoms are also traps. Charming.
July 5 - July 7 - Mixed liquidation stretch. Both sides take hits in the $200M-$300M zone as BTC chops instead of giving anyone a clean trend.
July 12 - Another two-sided flush, with long liquidations around $350M and shorts also taking a meaningful hit near $250M-$300M.
July 15 - July 16 - Late-window long liquidations rebuild into the $250M-$300M area while shorts remain active, but smaller.

Quick read

What You’re Looking At

Rows = coins, columns = timestamps.
Color = head-count of forced liquidations (legend tops at 2,000).
A cell showing “BTC 1,600” means 1,600 separate BTC positions were liquidated.

Weekly Crypto Liquidation History Heatmap - Click to enlarge.

July 10 20:00 - BTC, ETH, and SOL start warm, with majors leading the first wave of liquidations.
July 11 12:00 - ETH and SOL push into brighter colors while BTC stays active. Early sign that leverage was spreading beyond BTC.
July 12 20:00 - Broad heat across BTC, ETH, SOL, and select alts. Trader counts move into the 1,000-2,000 range in several rows.
July 13 12:00 - July 14 04:00 - BTC and ETH stay hot, with ZEC, SPCX, SNDK, and WLD showing stronger liquidation counts. Majors move first. Alts show up late, wearing clown shoes.
July 15 12:00 - July 16 20:00 - One of the most active stretches of the week. BTC and ETH repeatedly hit yellow/orange, while HYPE and SNDK flare hard.
July 17 12:00 - Heat cools in some rows, but BTC and ETH remain elevated. Not panic. Not calm either. Annoying middle ground.

Some Interesting Insights 👓️

The monthly chart shows the largest wipe came from longs during the June 22 - June 24 drop.
The weekly heat-map shows participation stayed elevated even after the main long flush. Traders reloaded. Because of course they did.
Both sides were cleaned out, but the sequence matters: longs first, shorts later on the rebound, then two-sided chop.
Liquidation spikes line up tightly with BTC price breaks and failed follow-through, not any visible headline catalyst.
Early-warning rule: when BTC/ETH heat-map rows stay orange while daily bars flip between long and short liquidations, the market is range-farming leverage, not giving clean direction.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Crypto Price Action: A Roomba Trapped Under the Couch 🤖

Jonathan Morgan — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:32:03 +0000

OVERVIEW

Crypto Price Action: A Roomba Trapped Under the Couch 🤖

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $DOGE ( ▲ 1.4% ) , $SPX ( ▲ 1.2% ) , $WLD ( 0.0% ) , $ONDO ( ▼ 5.0% ) , and $JASMY ( ▼ 3.2% )

Manufacturing Legend Backs Greenfield Robotics

Howard Dahl spent decades building the machines that feed America. His family invented the Bobcat skid steer. The air drills planting nearly every commodity crop globally? Those too. Now Dahl is manufacturing weed-cutting robots for Greenfield Robotics out of his Fargo factory, and he wrote his own check on top of it.

Greenfield's current fleet is sold out, with over $1 million in total revenue and robots in the field since 2020. Chipotle’s venture arm and KingsCrowd Capital are also on board. The robots slice weeds with centimeter precision, replacing herbicides linked to environmental damage and rising health concerns among farmers.

Greenfield is now in Test the Waters under Reg A+. Reserving shares today locks in a 5% bonus that can grow to 20% the week the round opens to the public.

Reserve Your Shares

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

So. The market is green. It feels good. But how do you feel about it?

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC Dominance Chart - Inflection Point 😲

BTC Dominance Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge.

There have been several times throughout the year where I’ve pulled up this chart and we’ve looked at various version of ‘will it/won’t it’ breakout. Well, this is another one of the moment. But it’s a little different this time.

The difference here is that the weekly BTC Dominance chart already broke down below the Bear Flag on June 22. and it’s since tiptoed just below the flag. And as of 1300 EST today, it’s pretty much parked right on the bottom channel of the flag. If it closes inside the flag again, then we get more chop.

What happens if it’s rejected from closing up and inside the Bear Flag? Well, it’s a good thing for altcoins. The consolidation has been a painful and long one. But there is a maxim in technical analysis that says the longer the consolidation, the more powerful the eventual breakout.

And folks, in case you forgot, the chart image above is the weekly chart, not the daily chart. So those 48ish candlesticks inside that Bear Flag are not 47 days, but 47 weeks. Almost an entire year.

Which brings me to some Gann theory :From the confirmation lower high on the daily chart (not shown) of August 2, 2025, Gann’s Cycle of the Inner Year ends with the 360-day cycle. That happens on July 29, 2026 and it is a little over a week before one of his specific Gann calendar dates: August 8. Gann highlighted August 8 specifically as very important for a change in trend and watch for tops or bottoms.

While it could move higher, there’s a boat load of resistance in the form of the weekly Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen, and the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) that might keep it parked near the bottom of the channel a little longer.

But if it closes below on Sunday night, we could see some big, big moves in alts.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X Bears how’s the 200X short position going?
— Boiling Point (@BoilingPoint)
6:49 PM • Jul 17, 2026

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dead Cat, No Bounce 🙀

Not all cats bounce.

$CASHCAT ( ▼ 13.6% ) traded near $0.06 on July 17, down about 73% from its $0.227 all time high and 59% over seven days. A week ago, $HOOD ( ▲ 3.72% ) Chain’s adopted cat briefly carried a market cap above $200 million. It now sits near $63 million.

CASHCATUSDT 4-hour Chart - Click to enlarge.

This turd had the usual ingredients: a new chain, a familiar corporate adjacent story, and an eager crowd that saw “Robinhood” and started filling in the blanks with crayon. CASHCAT is not a Robinhood product. It has no formal affiliation, product, roadmap, or utility beyond “cat,”.

Then the fresh attention vanished. Noxa, the launchpad that fueled much of the Robinhood Chain memecoin rush, stopped new launches July 11 and went dark two days later. CASHCAT fell more than 33% in 24 hours. The latest bloodbath followed the launch of perpetual futures, that timeless crypto custom where a volatile joke gets leverage and immediately finds out it has bones.

But hey, if it acts like a cat with nine-lives, then don’t be surprised if this thing all the sudden rips 30% at 4AM on a Sunday.

RWA
Good To See The RWA Space Working 👍️

There’s a boat load of RWA stories, press releases, etc that happen and it’s sometimes hard to forget that there are some entities with things working, functioning, and making money. But most of the time just sounds like a lot of fluff.

Well, here’s an example of something that’s working and paying.

$STEX ( ▲ 1.92% ) distributed 10.09 GLDY, equal to 10.09 ounces of gold, to holders today for June’s yield period. That works out to 0.003237 $GLDY ( ▲ 2.3% ) per token, with GLDY currently producing a 3.9% annualized yield.

The yield comes from Streamex leasing institutional gold, then passing the proceeds back to holders as additional tokens each month. Plain gold bullion still does the classic gold thing: sits there, looks expensive, pays nothing. GLDY has now made four monthly distributions, turning gold exposure into something that generates yield.

Holders can track the token’s NAV and reserve backing through RWA.xyz and $LINK ( ▲ 1.6% ) ’s proof-of-reserves feed.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BMNR it’s 2027 and $ETH.X is back to all time highs. Mr. Lee is using staking yield to buyback shares after accumulating 5% ETH at 5 year lows.
— Lil_VWAP (@Lil_VWAP)
4:22 PM • Jul 17, 2026

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

💱 FX Settlement Has A $1.4 Trillion Loose Floorboard

Only 36% of daily FX settlement used payment-versus-payment safeguards in April 2025, while more than $1.4 trillion still settled gross each day with principal exposed. $CRCL ( 0.0% ) ’s StableFX uses stablecoins and smart contracts on Arc to release both trade legs together or return the funds, operating 24/7 across supported pairs.

🏦 Banks Now Have Two Ledgers And One Expensive Decision

$QNT ( ▼ 0.4% ) and Capgemini say tokenized-deposit projects live or die on one early choice: keep core banking authoritative with mirrored tokens, or pool reserves and let the token ledger hold official customer positions. Both models were tested through Great British Tokenised Deposits, with mirror suited to bounded intra-bank flows and omnibus built for retail scale.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

💳 Blockchain Finally Does Something Harder Than Selling JPEGs

UNHCR says $ALGO ( ▲ 2.4% ) -powered HesabPay has delivered more than $35 million in assistance to over 625,000 refugee returnees and 17,500 internally displaced people in Afghanistan. Nice to see something that isn’t just a conference panel explaining how institutional-scale deployment might someday happen.

🐄 Jeju Is Putting Cows, Crops, And Copyrights Onchain

DB Securities and the Optimism Foundation signed a July 7 MOU to build Jeju-specific security-token and real-world-asset infrastructure on the $OP ( ▲ 1.6% ) Stack. Smart-farming assets, livestock, and Korean intellectual property go first, with DB operating the platform while Optimism supplies the underlying chain infrastructure. The rollout runs two years, and no launch date exists yet.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🎮 Hex Bounty Turns Friendship Into A Workplace Accident

From July 17-19, Hex Bounty gives players one life per 12-hour cycle to damage a giant Hexagon, steal points, and decide whether teamwork is worth more than treachery. The top three cubes split 3,000 $GALA ( ▲ 0.1% ) daily, putting as much as 9,000 GALA on the weekend menu. Permanent cubes and weapons carry forward; consumables expire after the event, much like everyone’s loyalty.

🎨 Enjin Offers Creators Something Better Than “Great Post”

$ENJ ( ▼ 2.1% ) ’s new Envoys program pays creators covering its ecosystem with ENJ grants, Beam credits, NFTs, early access, promotion, and direct team access. Scouts begin with 1,000 monthly Beam credits, Vanguards can earn 2,000 ENJ plus 5,000 credits, and Legends get 7,000 ENJ plus 7,500 credits monthly. Big follower counts are optional; consistent work, real impact, and proper sponsorship disclosures are not.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

🦙 Curve Lets LP Tokens Apply For A Second Job

Llamalend v2 is live on Ethereum with isolated lending markets, flexible asset pairings, and supported $CRV ( ▲ 2.1% ) LP tokens that can keep earning fees while serving as collateral. Each market gets its own oracle, caps, rate model, and LLAMMA liquidation range, containing risk instead of blending every questionable asset into one communal casserole.

⚙️ $ANKR Finally Gets A Job Description

Ankr admitted its token strategy spent eight years leaning against the wall while its infrastructure served 80-plus chains and processed over 1 trillion RPC requests monthly. Forge will use RPC spending and partner contributions to buy $ANKR ( ▲ 0.6% ) , fund liquidity, and distribute mission-based drops without fresh emissions.

🧱 Celestia Buys The Rest Of The Blockchain

Celestia Labs is acquiring Sovereign Labs, adding the Sovereign SDK and promoting co-founder Preston Evans to Celestia CTO. The SDK powers Relay, which has handled over $8.5 billion in transfers, and Bullet, which claims 1.2-millisecond clearing and over 30,000 TPS. $TIA ( ▲ 0.7% ) now wants to sell full-stack custom chains.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

🧪 Mina’s Dress Rehearsal Found The Loose Screws

$MINA ( ▲ 0.8% ) wrapped three weeks of Mesa testing with 39 participants across 19 countries, covering upgrades, emergency hard forks, archive nodes, Rosetta, zkApps, and load testing. They found an Automode configuration failure, high memory use, and documentation gaps. Mesa Trail stays open while Devnet, exchanges, staking pools, and other operators prepare for the real surgery.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

Peter Brandt called altcoin season
Bitcoin dominance kept sliding
Crypto Week delivered real movement - the GENIUS Act passed the House and headed to President Trump’s desk

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

The big political headline was Trump reportedly teasing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
XRP dumped more than 10%
WazirX got wrecked - a $235M hack drained about 45% of the exchange’s reserves

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

Jon 17

1203 - Fourth Crusaders captured Constantinople
1453 - France beat England at Castillon, ending the Hundred Years’ War
1791 - The Champ de Mars Massacre hit Paris
1821 - Spain officially transferred Florida to the United States
1902 - Willis Carrier designed modern air conditioning
1918 - The Romanov family was executed by Bolsheviks
1936 - The Spanish Civil War began
1945 - The Potsdam Conference began
1955 - Disneyland opened in Anaheim
1973 - Afghanistan’s monarchy was overthrown
1998 - Papua New Guinea was hit by a deadly tsunami
2014 - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

I'm Emotivonally Available For Gains And Emotionally Prepared For Disappointment

Jonathan Morgan — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 01:45:59 +0000

OVERVIEW

I'm Emotionally Available For Gains And Emotionally Prepared For Disappointment 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $CRO ( ▼ 0.4% ) , $ONDO ( ▼ 5.0% ) , $XRP ( ▼ 1.1% ) , $ZEC ( ▲ 3.5% ) , and $ICP ( ▼ 0.4% )

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

So. The market is green. It feels good. But how do you feel about it?

NEWS
Using Stocktwits' Data 💻️

On any Stocktwits stream page, you’ll see the chart and then two options above it: a Sentiment Score and a Message Volume Score.

Most people read them one at a time. High sentiment, bulls in charge. Loud volume, something's cooking. Fairly standard - and how you use it is up to you. But I’ve been asked to share how I use it.

In a nutshell, I’ve found they work best when used together with price action instead of in isolation. If an asset has been trending higher and both the Sentiment Score and Volume Score run high, price tends to roll over the next three to five days. Not because the crowd is wrong about the asset - because the crowd has arrived.

Now, without using anything else other than price, and Stocktwits’ Sentiment and Message Volume scores, the short-term slide south here in $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) had plenty of warning signs.

Now, there’s a lot more I could get into, but that’s for another edition of the newsletter. My point is this: The crowd is both a confirmation and a contrarian indicator. Stocktwits just lets you time how contrarian.

And this is the only place to get it.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$AVAT$AVAX.X $AVX
@remzshn$AVAT@remzshn please do another bear post saying this will go down to 1 cent need my buy order filled cheers buddy
Wanting to add another 5k shares but not getting filled for hours
Please make the post sound as though the company is going bankrupt next week so I can continue adding cheap shares
This will be the next big runner watch this space 🚀🚀🚀
— Ozzy (@BigD789)
11:34 PM • Jul 15, 2026

NEWS
Eightco Has A Whole Lot Of Worldcoin

Eightco says it holds 283.45 million $WLD ( 0.0% ) , roughly 8% of circulating supply, alongside 16,278 ETH, $148 million in cash and stables, $90 million of indirect OpenAI exposure, and $18 million in Beast Industries. Total claimed treasury: $406 million.

So… not really a treasury, more like a Costco cart.

The WLD stack alone was worth about $116 million at $0.41. Eightco says it is the largest publicly disclosed WLD holder. World’s July 24 unlock milestone would cut daily issuance 43%, from 5.1 million to 2.9 million WLD.

NEWS
**E*TRADE Finally Finds the Crypto Button**

E*TRADE has finally rolled out spot crypto trading, letting eligible customers buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana beside their traditional investments.

Trades run through separate Zero Hash accounts at 50 basis points per transaction. Transfers are promised later this year. Until then, users can buy crypto and admire it inside the platform.

Retirement planning, fractional shares, and a little Solana under one roof. Better late than never.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$PI.X Pretty genius of the creators to not let anyone sell until they’re out!
— Bald Eagle (@Charizardforlife)
6:45 AM • Jul 14, 2026

RWA
Crypto Company Buys $12 Million Jet Engine 🤦

Not a jet, just an engine. And you might be thinking, ‘wait, don’t planes usually have two?’ Yes they do. But these guys just wanted one.

$FRMM ( ▼ 1.23% ) is a digital asset platform focused on tokenized real-world assets and they just purchased a CFM56-7B aircraft engine for roughly $12 million in cash.

Wait What?

The CFM56-7B is a commercial turbofan engine commonly used on Boeing 737 Next Generation aircraft. It’s that big giant cylindrical thinging hanging beneath the wing and omg I hate sitting in seats right next to that beast.

Like I said, forum did not buy an entire plane. It bought one removable engine that an airline leases, installs, operates, and pays Forum to use. And it already generates:

Fixed monthly lease payments
Extra usage-based fees
Projected double-digit annual returns
Eventual resale, parts, or teardown value

This is Forum’s fourth income-producing engine. A fifth is expected within weeks. Still, ‘digital asset platform builds jet-engine portfolio’ reads like a Mad Lib completed during an investor conference lunch break that involved a lot of beer. I mean a lot of beer.

Like, how much beer do you have to drink between the idea of tokenizing stonks, then treasuries, then precious metals… and then someone shouts, ‘uh derrr how about those whirry fan things on the plane’ and it becomes reality?

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$WLFI.X Brilliant investment, if you need some serious tax losses. 🤭
— Miguel (@72Pantera)
1:28 AM • Jul 16, 2026

DEFI
Dune Found $542 Million Sitting Around Doing Nothing in DeFi 🤯

Concentrated liquidity was supposed to put DEX capital to work. Dune checked the machinery. About $542 million was parked outside active trading ranges in an average week during H1 2026, earning zero fees and providing zero market depth.

That is 29.5% of the capital measured.

Great stuff from Dune here.

Twitter tweet

The Expensive Part of “Set It and Forget It”

Dune reconstructed roughly 6.5 million position snapshots across $UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) v3, Uniswap v4, $CAKE ( ▲ 0.4% ) v3, and $AERO ( ▲ 3.8% ) Slipstream. The study covered seven chains, 26 weekly snapshots, 559 to 776 pools, and about $1.84 billion in average TVL.

The headline findings:

29.5% of concentrated-liquidity capital sat fully out of range.
36.7% of that idle capital, roughly $200 million, had not been adjusted for more than 90 days.
Only 13.7% of v3-family capital was actively used by trades.
Another 56.9% remained in range but sat outside the week’s traded band.
Add those last 2 buckets and roughly 85% was underutilized.

On constant-product venues (a type of automated market maker algo), Dune found 98.7% of capital sat outside the daily traded band. Going from nearly 99% underused to roughly 85% is progress. It is also a fairly low bar.

Humans Remain the Weakest Liquidity-Management Software

The ownership data is the fun part. Automated managers, bots, farms, and gauges generally kept capital in range. Individual wallets did not.

Positions above $1 million had lower idle rates than tiny positions, yet still held 47% of all idle dollars - around $260 million.

Direction More Than Commotion

Dune found idle liquidity rose about 0.4 percentage points for every 1% weekly move in ETH, with a moderate correlation of 0.49. Raw volatility mattered far less. A violent round trip may leave positions active. A slow one-way grind strands them. Even stablecoin pools averaged roughly 30% out of range.

TL;DR - concentrated liquidity improved DeFi, but capital efficiency remains unfinished. Active management, better incentives, and yield-bearing hooks can help. Free lunches continue missing scheduled appointments.

NEWS
Speaking Of DeFi And Doing It Right 🧠

$GLXY ( ▲ 4.81% ) has an answer to the woes above in the form an institutional version of putting idle stablecoins to work without giving the treasury team a nervous breakdown.

Galaxy Curator lets Fireblocks Earn’s 2,400-plus institutional clients deploy into $MORPHO ( ▼ 1.1% ) vaults from the same approval and signing setup they already use. Galaxy picks the markets, sets collateral rules and exposure limits, and monitors the thing. No handing the keys to some guy named YieldWizard.

And they’ve got two playgrounds: Quality vaults, backed only by blue-chip collateral and built for preservation; and Enhanced vaults, which add restaking tokens, Pendle PTs, and Ethena products for more yield and more ways for markets to misbehave.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

The whole issue was a Crypto Week cheat sheet - breaking down the Anti-CBDC bill, the CLARITY Act, and the GENIUS Act without making readers chew drywall
The CLARITY Act tried to draw the SEC/CFTC battle lines - mature networks could move into commodity territory, spot crypto platforms would register with the CFTC
The GENIUS Act was the stablecoin rulebook - 1-to-1 reserves, monthly attestations, licensed issuers, bankruptcy priority for holders, no yield gimmicks, and Treasury still holding the sanction hammer

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

Trump picked J.D. Vance as his running mate - giving crypto its first major pro-Bitcoin figure on a presidential ticket
Vance’s crypto angle was the headline - he had disclosed holding $100K-$250K in BTC, backed self-custody
ETH ETFs looked ready to launch - final paperwork and fees were expected, with the market watching for a possible July 23 trading start

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

June 16

1212 - Christian forces won Las Navas de Tolosa
1661 - Stockholms Banco issued Europe’s first real banknotes
1769 - Mission San Diego de Alcalá was founded, becoming the first Spanish mission in California
1779 - “Mad” Anthony Wayne stormed Stony Point,
1790 - Congress picked the Potomac site for the U.S. capital
1809 - La Paz revolted against Spanish authority
1862 - David Farragut became the U.S. Navy’s first rear admiral
1918 - The Romanov family was executed overnight
1935 - The world’s first parking meter was installed in Oklahoma City
1941 - Joe DiMaggio stretched his hitting streak to 56 games
1945 - The Trinity test detonated the first atomic bomb
1969 - Apollo 11 launched for the Moon
1973 - Nixon’s White House taping system was revealed, turning Watergate from scandal into a self-own with magnetic tape.

Get In Touch 📬

Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎

Terms & Conditions 📝

Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Hope Is Back Like A Drunk Uncle With A Pontoon ⛴️

Jonathan Morgan — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 21:32:07 +0000

OVERVIEW

Hope Is Back Like A Drunk Uncle With A Pontoon ⛴️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: $ROAM ( ▲ 3.2% ) , $BONK ( ▼ 10.3% ) , $XCN ( ▼ 0.4% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 1.5% ) , and $JASMY ( ▼ 3.2% )

STOCKTWITS
Take This Poll 👇️

So. The market is green. It feels good. But how do you feel about it?

Click to take poll.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
The Composite MVRV 🪗

MVRV is Market Value over Realized Value. Market value is what a coin's supply is worth right now. Realized value is what that supply last moved at - the aggregate cost basis of everyone holding. Divide one by the other and you get a single number that says whether the average holder is sitting in profit or underwater.

Above 1.0, the market is worth more than what people paid, so holders are green.
Below 1.0, aggregate cost basis is above spot, and the average coin is underwater.

Historically the deep-below-1.0 stretches line up with capitulation and accumulation zones, the stretched-above readings with froth and distribution.

The Composite MVRV here blends three lookbacks - 180, 90, and 60 day - instead of full-history realized value. That trades cycle-level context for responsiveness. The 1.0 line becomes a rolling break-even tuned to recent holders rather than coins that last moved in 2017.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Composite MVRV 🪙

Click to enlarge.

Still under the 1.0 break-even line, and it's been there a while - 51 straight days, 53 of the last 60. But the floor's in the rearview. This bounced off 0.699 back on Feb 5, which was the aggregate-holder capitulation low for the window, and it's clawed up +0.054 over the past week and +0.053 over the month.

It's still down from 0.9985 ninety days ago, so the recovery is real but it hasn't reclaimed where it was in mid-April. Not a screaming accumulation signal anymore - that was February. More like a market grinding back toward its own cost basis with price struggling to hold $65K.

Reclaiming 1.0 would be the first time since May.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Ethereum Composite MVRV 🥈

Click to enlarge.

This is the one knocking on the door. Ethereum's composite is a rounding error away from 1.0 after ripping +0.108 in a week and +0.161 over the month - the steepest recovery of the four.

It's been below break-even for 66 straight days, longer than BTC. Ninety days ago it printed 0.9968, so ETH has essentially recovered to its April footing, unlike Bitcoin. Price near $1,890. One green candle flips the entire aggregate holder base from underwater to break-even.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

When a NEW PATTERN develops, I pay attention.

Most every Head-n-shoulder pattern has led to lower prices for Bitcoin.

A new, INVERSE head-n-shoulder pattern is suggesting bearish conviction is lacking, such that this may be signaling a profound buy point.

$BTC.X $MSTR$IBIT$ETH.X $GBTC
— seth marcus gold (@sethmarcus)
12:13 PM • Jul 15, 2026

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Uniswap Composite MVRV 🦄

Click to enlarge.

Is… Is this… Good God it’s above 1.

Uniswap's composite ripped from 0.867 to 1.19 in a month - a +0.327 move that also happens to be the +0.322 ninety-day change, meaning basically all the action is recent. It flipped above 1.0 fourteen days ago and hasn't looked back. $UNI ( ▲ 0.9% ) ’s current read clears 99% of the entire window and sits a whisker under the Nov high of 1.2198.

For context, 46 of the last 60 days were still below break-even, so this is a violent, fresh repricing, not a slow climb. Aggregate holders are now solidly green after months underwater. That's the good news and the warning label - readings this far above cost basis are where profit-taking and distribution tend to show up. But if enough new entrants keep piling in, that might not happen for a while.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano Composite MVRV 🧠

Click to enlarge.

$ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) ’s composite is still parked well below 1.0 and hasn't shown much urgency about leaving - up a measly +0.013 on the week while BTC and ETH were climbing. The month looks better at +0.092, and it's off the Feb 5 low of 0.584, but this is the weakest recovery of the group.

Current read clears 77% of the window, which sounds fine until you note the window mean is 0.794 - so ADA at 0.8655 is barely above its own average misery.

Aggregate holders are deep underwater - roughly 13% below cost basis - and staying there.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$ETH.X if it gets back to 5k I'll sell it all.
— Big Bear (@bbear)
12:59 PM • Jul 15, 2026

NEWS
Arbitrage Gets Awkward When Your Backer Is the Rival 🫢

Good piece here from Financial Times.

A previously private fight involving $CRCL ( 0.0% ) and a $USDT ( 0.0% ) -backed investment fund has spilled into public court filings.

Circle is asking a federal court in Boston to confirm an arbitration victory against Heka Funds. As part of that effort, Circle pushed documents from the confidential proceeding into the public record. Those filings revealed that Tether had invested roughly $800 million in Heka through a linked fund, representing about 75% of Heka’s assets.

Circle blocked Heka in late 2023 after suspecting the fund was aggressively redeeming USDC for dollars in a strategy that benefited Tether. Heka later demanded $49 million in lost profits. The arbitrator rejected that claim, found Heka acted in bad faith and awarded Circle roughly $166,000 in costs.

Heka denies manipulating the market. It now accuses Circle of publicizing confidential material to distract from the real dispute: Circle’s refusal to redeem its USDC for cash. It really just feels like a ‘gotcha’ lawyer thing to rub it in. Well played.

NEWS
Your Privacy Proof Would Like An Nvidia Budget 🤯

A proposed Zcash grant wants to use $NVDA ( ▲ 1.38% ) tensor cores to accelerate Orchard and Ironwood proving by 1.5 to 2 times on H100 GPUs.

For those not in the know, $ZEC ( ▲ 3.5% ) hides transaction details while still proving that nobody created counterfeit coins or spent the same money twice. Producing that mathematical proof takes several seconds and uses considerable computing power. Fine for one person. Less fine when an exchange needs to process thousands of withdrawals.

The developers believe H100 chips could produce these proofs 1.5 to 2 times faster. That would help exchanges, bridges and trading services process far more shielded Zcash transactions without building a server room that looks like it needs its own power plant. And in case you’re wondering, those H100s are between $25k and $40k a pop.

The team may later develop a version for ordinary Nvidia gaming cards. Way cheaper than the H100s but still, good luck finding an RTX 5090 that doesn’t cost $4k - $6k.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X $ZEC.X I think it will go up a bit, then down, but might go down first before it goes up, or goes up a bit before it goes down, then up, then down, then up again, then down, then up, then up some more, then it pulls back, then down a bit, then up a lot. But only if it crosses the 20 day. If it crosses the 30 day then its the opposite unless it maintains 63000. Im always right because I can read charts and I can lift heavy things and do math and im good at darts, sometimes.
— Rudybird (@Rudybird)
2:52 PM • Jul 15, 2026

DEFI
Cardano’s Treasury Discovers Diversification After Losing $167M 🤔

$ADA ( ▲ 4.6% ) ’s treasury held 1.474 billion ADA worth roughly $233 million on July 13. In March, roughly the same pile was valued near $400 million.

Two Monte Carlo models using 25,000 paths each placed the treasury’s 1-in-20 bad year between a 73% and 94% loss in dollar value. That 21-point gap is model risk yelling through a bullhorn. A theoretical 10% allocation to $BTC ( ▲ 1.1% ) and stablecoins improved one-year expected shortfall by roughly $14 million. Useful? Meh.

Converting $100 million while limiting sales to 5% to 10% of daily volume could take around 2 months in normal conditions or nearly a year during a crisis. Estimated market impact lands between $27 million and $41 million. Even that depends on whether ADA’s daily volume is $24 million or ten times higher.

Should a treasury hold 100% of its assets in the token it exists to support? Probably not. Can it diversify by dumping nearly half its dollar value into the market? Also probably not.

DEFI
StakedCelo Has 12 Bad Groups & One Slow Multisig 🧑‍🤝‍🧑

StakedCelo has roughly 5.43 million CELO trapped across 12 unhealthy validator groups. Six groups are dead. Six are failing.

The largest dead group holds around 2.25 million $CELO ( ▲ 1.0% ) . The largest failing group holds another 2.40 million. Automated bots can drain and skip bad groups during rebalancing, but they cannot remove those groups or add replacements. Only the owner multisig can change the approved set.

The proposed fix replaces the six current signers with the six members of the cLabs Security Council. The threshold remains three of six, and the seven-day execution delay stays intact. Collecting three signatures currently takes weeks. The council expects to handle submission on the same day.

Is this more centralized? Yes. Is a diversified signer group useful when it cannot assemble three signatures before the replacement validator also dies? Less clear.

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

$BTC.X you’ll feel dumb for not pawning your silverware at $65K when this is at $1M
— Mortimer Duke (@doctorwho)
2:31 PM • Jul 15, 2026

DEFI
NEAR Governance Cuts Its Budget & Keeps The Lawyers ✂️

$NEAR ( ▼ 2.8% ) ’s House of Stake is requesting $196,000 plus 60,000 NEAR to operate from July 2026 through June 2027. The revised request is only 23.16% of its original April budget.

The dollar portion assigns $142,000 to legal and compliance work and $54,000 to IT. A separate 60,000 NEAR allocation covers an operations manager. The proposal also says personnel costs are excluded.

House of Stake wants operational independence over treasury management, compliance and execution while continuing to use NEAR Foundation infrastructure for software, KYC, payment rails, data and some legal support. Independent, but still on the family phone plan.

And there is no contingency buffer. NEAR Foundation has agreed to help during genuine emergencies. Unused funds remain in the House of Stake treasury, and quarterly reports will track spending, compliance and execution performance.

Is $196,000 excessive for governance infrastructure? Not really. Is spending 72% of the dollar budget on lawyers and compliance the glorious decentralized future anyone imagined? Also no.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

July 15

1099 - Crusaders captured Jerusalem
1410 - Poland-Lithuania crushed the Teutonic Knights at Grunwald
1789 - Lafayette took command of Paris’ National Guard
1799 - The Rosetta Stone was found in Egypt
1834 - Spain abolished the Spanish Inquisition, only took 350 years
1870 - Georgia became the last Confederate state readmitted to the Union
1916 - Boeing was founded as Pacific Aero Products
1965 - Mariner 4 sent back the first close-up image of Mars
1974 - A Greek-backed coup hit Cyprus
2006 - Twitter launched to the public
2016 - Turkey’s failed coup attempt erupted

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋

Cryptotwits

So Robinhood Just Launched It's Own Pump.fun... 🦄

OVERVIEW

So Robinhood Just Launched It's Own Pump.fun... 🦄

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

STOCKTWITSReal-Time Ideas Built Around You.

DEFIEverybody Into the Pool 😶

NEWSThe Coldcard Stuff - What You Need To Know 🧠

So What Broke?

What’s The Damage?

The Worst Part: Someone Pointed It Out 14 Months Ago

Par For The Course

NEWSNo, Solana’s Not Really Speeding Up Disinflation 🙅

NEWSSpeaking Of Proposals: NEAR Wants A Sovereign Wealth Fund 💰️

OLD NEWSCrypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWSOther Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 6

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Terms & Conditions 📝

Traders Eyeing These Moves Like A Yard Sale Rolex ⌚️

Presented by

OVERVIEW

Traders Eyeing These Moves Like A Yard Sale Rolex ⌚️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

SPONSORED BY GAMESTOCKCrypto Poker. Pick Winning Coins. Win Cash Pots.

TECHNICAL ANALYSISSo Many Things In The Cloud ☁️

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWSRatings Agency Makes A Stablecoin Naughty & Nice List 📜

NEWSYour Tokenized Stonks Get To Vote ☑️

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

STOCKTWITSUsing The Stocktwits MCP 👀

OLD NEWSCrypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWSOther Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 5

Get In Touch 📬

Terms & Conditions 📝

Crypto Gets The Rescue Dog Treatment - Loved, Fed, Watched For Sudden Movements 😶

OVERVIEW

Crypto Gets The Rescue Dog Treatment - Loved, Fed, Watched For Sudden Movements 😶

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSISOn-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard 📇

SPONSORED

How 2M+ Professionals Stay Ahead on AI

ON-CHAIN ANALYSISOn-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Cardano, XRP, Uniswap, & Dogecoin 🔢

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSISOn-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Ethereum, Chainlink, Aave, & Bitcoin 🔢

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

OLD NEWSCrypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWSOther Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 4

Get In Touch 📬

Terms & Conditions 📝

Hope And Fear Now Sharing Custody Of The Market On Alternating Days 🎭️

OVERVIEW

Hope And Fear Now Sharing Custody Of The Market On Alternating Days 🎭️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

NEWSBlackRock Ships Two More Tokenized Cash Products Into The Wreckage 🚢

SPONSORED

One Shark Missed Billions… Another Saw This Coming

NEWSNEAR Figured Out How to Bill You Without Billing You 🤯

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWSGuy Kept The Seed Phrase From A Tutorial Video And Made $628k 🤦

NEWSBancor Has a Point About What An AMM Really Is 🫵

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCESAI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCESReal World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

STOCKTWITSStuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCESMetaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCESDeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCESProtocol News 🏦

OLD NEWOther Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

August 3

Get In Touch 📬

Terms & Conditions 📝

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 31

OVERVIEW

Stocktwits Crypto Data Dive - Week 31

CRYPTOCrypto Market Cap Update

Total Market Cap

Altcoin Market Cap

STOCKTWITS
Real-Time Ideas Built Around You.

DEFI
Everybody Into the Pool 😶

NEWS
The Coldcard Stuff - What You Need To Know 🧠

NEWS
No, Solana’s Not Really Speeding Up Disinflation 🙅

NEWS
Speaking Of Proposals: NEAR Wants A Sovereign Wealth Fund 💰️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

SPONSORED BY GAMESTOCK
Crypto Poker. Pick Winning Coins. Win Cash Pots.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So Many Things In The Cloud ☁️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS
Ratings Agency Makes A Stablecoin Naughty & Nice List 📜

NEWS
Your Tokenized Stonks Get To Vote ☑️

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

STOCKTWITS
Using The Stocktwits MCP 👀

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottom Conditions Scorecard 📇

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Cardano, XRP, Uniswap, & Dogecoin 🔢

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Bottoms Condition Score Card: Ethereum, Chainlink, Aave, & Bitcoin 🔢

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

NEWS
BlackRock Ships Two More Tokenized Cash Products Into The Wreckage 🚢

NEWS
NEAR Figured Out How to Bill You Without Billing You 🤯

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS
Guy Kept The Seed Phrase From A Tutorial Video And Made $628k 🤦

NEWS
Bancor Has a Point About What An AMM Really Is 🫵

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

OLD NEW
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

CRYPTO
Crypto Market Cap Update

CRYPTOTWITS
Missed An Issue This Week? I Got Ya Right Here 👇️

CRYPTO
Stocktwits Crypto Index RRG

CRYPTO
Weekly Total Market Cap (TMC) Performance

CRYPTO
Weekly Crypto Index Performance

CRYPTO
Liquidation Station 😱

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
August Is Crypto's Worst Month And Its Biggest Month 🎰

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Minnesota Twins Batting Average, Usain Bolt Exit Velocity 💨

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So. Anyway To Tell How Much Suck August Will Have? 🤔

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Does August Determine Q3? Maybe 🔢

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

NEWS
Happy Birthday To The Wrong Chain 🤷

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

NEWS
Zcash Mining Is Getting Crowded

STOCKTWITS
Stuff Stocktwits People Said 👇️

STABLECOINS
USA₮ Finds a Chain With Users 👍️

NEWS
Quant: Tokenized Money Is Running Into the Same Old Problem ⚠️

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
news

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending News 🏦

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Protocol News 🏦

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

NEWS
Post Fed Price Action 🤯

DEFI
Perp My Upside: The Closing Bell Gets Fired 🔥