🏡 Saskatchewan is Not Slowing down

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Ontario mortgage stress is climbing fast, and the province’s arrears rate has now moved above the national average, a rare signal that has historically lined up with major housing downturns.

• Saskatchewan’s benchmark home price hit a record $374,100 in March, up from $363,800 the month before.

• Saskatoon reached an all-time high benchmark price of $435,200, while Regina climbed to $343,700.

• Inventory across Saskatchewan is running about 50% below normal seasonal levels, keeping pressure on both buyers and prices.

• Saskatoon has less than 2 months of housing supply, which is well below what is considered a balanced market.

• Buyers in Saskatoon are overbidding by an average of $34,000 to $36,000, with some offers reaching as high as $120,000 over asking.

Why This Matters: Saskatchewan is one of the few markets in Canada still seeing real price growth while much of the country cools. It is also one of the last major markets with a benchmark price well below the national average, giving investors a cheaper entry point with stronger upside than most big cities.

_(source)

💀 West Vancouver Housing Targets Hit a Wall

Source: CTV News

The 411: Vancouver is falling badly behind on its housing targets, but local officials say the bigger issue is brutal project economics. Even approved developments are stalling because the numbers no longer work.

• West Vancouver has completed just one-third of the housing targets the province set in 2023.

• One 200-unit project made it all the way to the building permit stage before the developer pulled the permits.

• Rising construction costs, high interest rates, and weak demand have made it hard for projects to sell at prices that actually cover building costs.

• The province has still stepped in, with Housing Minister Christine Boyle overruling council to allow more density in parts of Ambleside.

• Local agents say luxury condo demand has weakened, while the biggest unmet need is for seniors and young families looking for transition housing.

Why This Matters: This is a clear sign that zoning alone does not build housing. If projects are getting approved but still not moving, the real problem is that development math across Metro Vancouver is breaking down. For investors, builders, and policymakers, that means more stalled supply even in markets being pushed to densify.

📈 No More Hikes?

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Canada’s job market is looking too weak to support any new rate hikes, and economists now say markets betting on higher rates are getting ahead of themselves. That matters because softer labour data gives the Bank of Canada more reason to stay put.

• Canada added just 14,000 jobs in March after losing nearly 110,000 jobs across January and February combined.

• The national unemployment rate held at 6.7%, while the core 25 to 54 age group saw unemployment rise to 5.8% for a third straight month.

• Full-time employment is down 40,000 over the past six months, while part-time jobs have risen by more than 80,000.

• Financial services alone cut nearly 20,000 jobs between February and March, a notable hit in one of the country’s key white-collar sectors.

• In B.C., unemployment jumped to 6.7%, up 0.6 points and the highest outside pandemic years since February 2016.

• Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through the rest of 2026.

Why This Matters: A weak jobs market makes rate hikes much harder to justify, which means borrowing costs may stay lower for longer than many expected. That could help support housing demand on paper, but softer employment and fewer full-time paycheques also mean buyers and renters are under more pressure..

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📬 Ottawa Expands Vacant Tax Reach

Source: Ottawa Citizen

The 411: Ottawa’s vacant unit tax is doing more than targeting empty homes. It is quietly becoming a powerful data and revenue tool, even as some homeowners push back on the annual reporting requirement.

• The tax applies to homes left vacant for more than 184 days and is set at 1% of the property’s assessed value.

• Since launching in 2022, the city has collected millions in revenue, much of it directed toward affordable housing initiatives.

• The program now has email contacts for over 327,000 properties, covering 97.5% of residential units in Ottawa.

• Paper mail-outs have dropped 68%, falling to 81,000 from 225,000, saving the city more than $100,000 in postage.

• Complaints have dropped by over 70% as the declaration process was streamlined from five minutes to about one minute.

Why This Matters: This is becoming less about vacant homes and more about enforcement and data control. Ottawa now has near-total visibility on occupancy and direct communication with almost every homeowner. For investors, that means tighter compliance, higher carrying costs on empty units, and fewer loopholes to sit on unused property.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

This is what a fragmented market looks like.

Price declines are all over the map, from flat in some regions to nearly 30% down in others, showing there is no single “Canadian housing market” right now.

What matters now is location more than ever, because outcomes are diverging fast depending on where you own.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
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😱 Mortgage Arrears Jump 47 percent

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Ontario mortgage stress is climbing fast, and the province’s arrears rate has now moved above the national average, a rare signal that has historically lined up with major housing downturns.

• Ontario mortgage arrears hit 6,223 in January, up 47.7% year over year and signalling rising borrower stress

• The arrears rate hit 0.29% in January, up 10 basis points year over year and the highest Ontario has seen since 2011

• That rate is nearly 5x higher than the 2022 low, showing just how quickly conditions have deteriorated since borrowing costs reset higher

• That crossover is rare and has only happened twice before in the data, once during the 1991 to 1996 real estate crash and again from 2005 to 2009 around the global financial crisis

• The current correction is already being described as Ontario’s second-largest, with pressure building as peak-era buyers, many of them investors, face a weaker market and tighter financing conditions

Why This Matters: It is not just that more borrowers are falling behind. It is that the province has now tripped a warning sign that has shown up during some of the ugliest stretches in its housing history.

🕵️ Mortgage Brokers Under Investigation

Source: The Star

The 411: Ontario’s regulator is stepping up enforcement across financial services, with mortgage brokers and agents facing the bulk of investigations, penalties, and licence actions.

• The mortgage industry saw more enforcement action than any other area regulated by FSRA

• $1.2 million in penalties issued, with most fines tied to mortgage-related violations

• Maximum fines were raised in 2022 to $100,000 for individuals and $500,000 for brokerages, significantly increasing the cost of non-compliance

• 25 licence revocations or refusals across mortgage and insurance sectors, highlighting enforcement beyond just fines

• Common violations include operating without a licence, giving poor or misleading advice, and submitting fraudulent mortgage documents

• Agents with less than 2 years experience are now barred from private lending, a shift aimed at reducing errors and inexperience-driven risk

Why This Matters: Ontario is taking a much harder line on mortgage misconduct, especially in private lending and broker-led deals. For the industry, it means more compliance pressure and less tolerance for sloppy or fraudulent behaviour.

🏙️ Productivity Is Stuck at Home

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Canada’s housing crisis is now an economic crisis. When productive cities cannot add enough homes, growth gets priced into land instead of showing up in wages, jobs, and output.

• In a healthy market, a productivity boom in one city should lead to more housing, more workers moving in, more jobs, and more national output.

• Instead of boosting living standards, productivity gains get absorbed into higher home prices, rents, and land values

• Toronto is used as a clear example of underbuilding. Compared with Madrid, which has a similar metro population, Madrid’s peak density is 2.7 times higher and the average person has 2.8 times as many people within 1 kilometre.

• In Canada, restrictive zoning and slow approvals often block that process. Instead of building more homes, productive cities get higher prices and rents.

Why This Matters: This suggests the problem is not only high housing costs. It may also be limiting how easily workers can move to the cities with the strongest job markets, while making it harder for businesses in those regions to expand. In that view, housing constraints can weigh on wages, business growth, and overall economic output.

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🏡 Cottage Market Faces Reality

Source: The Globe and Mail

The 411: Ontario’s cottage market is no longer riding pandemic hype. Waterfront scarcity is still supporting top-tier properties, but higher borrowing costs are exposing weakness everywhere else.

• Forecasts call for average prices to rise 2% in 2026, while others expect prices to fall 8%, inventory to climb 8%, and sales volume to drop 10% to 15%.

• Nationally, waterfront homes already slipped 5.2% to a median of $717,600 in 2025, with listings sitting longer on the market.

• The luxury segment is holding up. Cottages above $4M to $5M are seeing steadier demand, with buyers less sensitive to rates and often paying cash.

• Haliburton highlights the pandemic hangover, with prices down roughly 20% from peak levels while inventory surged, including 282 new listings in May last year, more than double pandemic-era lows.

Why This Matters: Ontario’s cottage market is splitting in two. Trophy waterfront is still behaving like a scarce luxury asset, while the rest of the market is feeling the full weight of higher rates, cautious buyers, and more supply. That makes pricing power far weaker than it was during the pandemic boom.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada could be heading into its first population decline in more than a century just as Ottawa slams the brakes on immigration.

Add roughly 1.4 million temporary visas expiring, most tied to renters, and demand could cool fast right when about 8% of the country’s rental supply under construction is set to hit the market.

That is a rough setup for landlords in 2026, but a very good one for renters ready to negotiate.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

Finding the right service providers in real estate isn’t easy. Our Trusted Providers are handpicked by Urban 411 to help you work with professionals you can rely on.

Cardinal Law

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
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💸 New Homes Just Got $130K Cheaper in Ontario

Source: Ontario

The 411: Ontario is offering a full HST rebate on new homes up to $1M.

• New homes under $1M would get a full 13% HST rebate, up to $130,000

• Homes from $1M to $1.5M would still get the full $130,000 rebate, with the rebate shrinking to $24,000 by $1.85M

• Homes over $1.85M would keep the existing $24,000 provincial rebate

• Buyers must sign with a builder between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027

• Rental projects can also qualify if the purchase is signed in that window and construction was already underway before March 31, 2026

• First-time buyers may also qualify for separate provincial and federal rebates if they signed between March 20, 2025 and December 31, 2030

• The federal 5% portion still needs changes to the Excise Tax Act, so the full plan is not final yet

Why This Matters: This is a step in the right direction for getting more projects built. Cutting HST lowers costs and improves project economics at a time when too many deals are stuck. The real question is whether tax relief alone is enough to get builders moving again.

🎉 Ford & Carney Cut Development Charges by 50%

Source: The Star

The 411: Ottawa and Ontario saying are cutting development charges by up to 50%, trying to make new housing projects cheaper to build and harder to cancel.

• The federal and Ontario governments say development charges will be cut by up to 50% in municipalities covering 80% of Ontario’s population

• The cuts will stay in place for three years and be backed by $8.8B in matched infrastructure funding over 10 years

• Carney and Ford say the broader package, including the HST break on certain new homes, could cut taxes and fees by up to $200,000 per home

• Development charges have become a major cost barrier for builders, especially as financing, labour, and materials stay expensive

• Governments say municipalities will be expected to support the fee cuts, while new infrastructure funding helps cover the revenue hit

• Ontario will now work with municipalities to submit infrastructure projects for approval

Why This Matters: Development charges have become one of the biggest costs in getting a project off the ground. Cutting them by up to 50% directly improves project economics and can turn shelved deals into viable ones. It won’t fix everything, but it removes a major friction point that’s been killing new supply.

🏘️ Calgary Cuts Density Rules After Builder Pushback

Source: Global News

The 411: Calgary is now proposing to water down its blanket rezoning rules, potentially limiting where and how much density can actually get built.

• The city is considering banning mid-block rowhouses and limiting them to the ends of blocks

• Proposed changes would cut density from 75 to 60 units per hectare

• New rules would also lower lot coverage, cap building heights at 10 metres, and tighten setback requirements

• Builders warn the changes could make projects financially unviable, adding about $143,000 per unit in some cases

Why This Matters: This is a step backward for supply. Tightening rules and cutting density directly hurts project viability and slows approvals. The real question is whether political pressure will keep chipping away at policies meant to increase housing.

🎾 Pickleball vs Property Tax

Source: CityTV News

The 411: Toronto is punishing creative uses of stalled condo sites, slapping commercial tax rates on projects that were never built.

• Vacant condo site at 8 Rosehill Place was turned into a pop-up pickleball club instead of sitting empty

• The site includes five pickleball courts, two padel courts, and draws thousands of visitors in warmer months

• Because users pay about $35 per session, MPAC reclassified the land from vacant residential to commercial

• That reassessment could trigger a $500,000 tax bill, making the temporary use financially unworkable

• MPAC says current provincial rules require commercial classification for paid recreational facilities

Why This Matters: If temporary uses get taxed like finished towers, developers will leave sites empty. That means fewer amenities, slower neighbourhood activation, and more dead space across Toronto.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Toronto already has 800,000-plus units proposed or approved, and the skyline still looks like it swallowed a box of red crayons.

The map breaks it down: grey is already built, blue is under construction, and red is proposed or approved

Toronto doesn’t have a housing shortage problem, it has a delivery problem. On paper, the city is building the future. In reality, a lot of it is still stuck in planning limbo

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

Finding the right service providers in real estate isn’t easy. Our Trusted Providers are handpicked by Urban 411 to help you work with professionals you can rely on.

Cardinal Law

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
👋 Follow us on Instagram for daily news bites!

Thanks to our new partnership with SingleKey, you're getting exclusive market data and a behind‑the‑scenes look at what’s really happening in the rental market.

📈 Rents Cool But Demand Sticks

• Average asking rent in Canada fell to about $2,060 in December 2025, down roughly 2.3% year over year and at the lowest level in about 2.5 years.​

• By February 2026, average asking rent dipped further to roughly $2,030, a 33‑month low and the 17th straight month of annual rent declines.

• January’s rebound was more about demand than price: national rental demand scores jumped about 33% from December as prospect counts surged 35% month over month.​

• The market feels calmer but not dead: demand is thinner and more selective, with renters taking longer to move and focusing on deals rather than bidding wars.

Rental trend data brought to you by SingleKey.

📊 National Rental Trends:

• December ↓ 18.6% vs. November

• January: ↑ 30% vs. December

• February: ↑ 10.7% vs. January

• March forecast: ↑ 34.5%

📍 Provincial insights:

• B.C. posted one of the strongest rebounds, signalling that leasing demand returned.

• Alberta regained momentum quickly after a moderate dip.

• The Prairies saw the sharpest December decline and a strong January correction. Rapid rebounds increase screening pressure.

• Ontario experienced a notable holiday slowdown; competition will intensify heading into March.

• Quebec remained the most stable, reinforcing consistent demand.

• The Maritimes recorded the largest January surge nationwide, showing aggressive early-season activity.
  
  _{Rental trend data presented by SingleKey.}

📍CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026

• According to CMHC’s 2026 housing report, Canada’s economy is expected to grow slowly in 2026, as softer job markets and population growth weigh on demand.

• Conditions are projected to improve gradually in 2027–2028.

• Home sales and price growth remain below historical averages. More
  renters may delay buying, supporting rental demand

• New construction is slowing. Rental supply will continue to grow, but at
  a slower pace.

• Rental markets are moving toward balance. Rent growth is easing,
  giving tenants more options and increasing rent price competition.

• Ontario and B.C. home sales and construction are slowing, so focus on tenant quality and retention, not just pricing power. Housing activity in the Prairies and Quebec remains comparatively stronger, signalling healthier demand but increased competition for quality tenants.
  

  👉 View the Full Report Here

🔥 Get Ahead of The Rental Market:

• Organize tenant applications with SingleKey’s free Pre-Screen Tool.

• Select the right applicant using Tenant Screening. You’ll get 50% off as an Urban 411 member!

• Secure your rental income with Rent Guarantee

💡 Coming Soon: A Better Way to Verify Tenant Income

SingleKey is testing Bank Verified Income, a faster way to verify tenant income and financial stability with:

• ✅ Deeper income validation

• ✅ Visibility into transaction history

• ✅ Optional review of savings patterns

🛠 More Resources for Landlords

• 5 Tips to streamline the rental application process

• Biggest red flags when screening a tenant

• Simple tenant screening checklist

• Is rental income insurance right for you?

🤔 WTF of the Week:

This property was left in shambles after a year-long eviction battle.

Another example of how one bad tenant can cost far more than lost rent, which is why proper screening matters. (especially with Ontario’s landlord/tenant laws)

@atiqueg

Canada need to fix this system need to fix it

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💰 Why the Iran War Could Drive BoC Rate Hikes

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Markets have flipped from expecting Bank of Canada cuts to pricing in 75 bps of hikes by year-end, driven by the Iran war and a spike in oil and LNG prices.

• Money markets flipped fast. Traders went from pricing a mid-year cut to pricing 75 basis points of Bank of Canada hikes by the end of 2026.

• Odds of a hike next month jumped to more than 20%, up from roughly 4% a day earlier.

• Since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, oil and LNG prices have surged and the Strait of Hormuz has been shut, choking off nearly 20% of global oil trade.

• That is bad news for inflation. Higher energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs are the kind of imported headache central banks hate because they bleed into everything else.

• The BoC has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October, but he said it would not let energy-driven inflation become broad or persistent.

Why This Matters: Mortgage pressure is back on the table. If markets are right and 75 bps of hikes land, borrowing costs rise again just as many buyers were waiting for relief. It is also a warning that fixed rates can move before the Bank of Canada does, which means sentiment and affordability can worsen long before any official hike arrives.

🌍 Population Drop Hits Housing Demand

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada’s population just posted its first annual decline ever, and that could ease rental demand faster than many expected.

• Canada’s population fell by 103,500 in Q1 2026 to 41.47 million, a 0.25% quarterly drop and the first back-to-back quarterly decline on record.

• Since peaking in Q3 2024, Canada’s population has contracted by 179,600 people, or 0.4%.

• The decline was driven almost entirely by non-permanent residents, whose population fell by 171,300 in Q1 to 2.68 million.

• Non-permanent residents are now down 14.7% from a year ago and 15.1% below their Q4 2024 peak of 3.15 million.

Why This Matters: Population growth has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for rents, absorption, and housing demand. If that engine slows while construction is already weak and rates stay high, the market loses one of its biggest support beams.

💸 Commercial Capital Is Back but Picky

Source: CBRE

The 411: CBRE surveyed 47 lenders with over $200B in loans and found capital is still flowing, with most lenders open to financing across asset classes.

• Multifamily remains the top target, while office sentiment is rebounding for the first time in six years, with lenders planning to increase exposure.

• Vancouver is now the top market for lender appetite, overtaking Toronto for the first time in a decade, with Calgary also climbing in rankings.

• Hamilton saw the biggest dropping from 6th to 11th, partly due to tariff exposure in steel and auto sectors.

• The biggest concern is macro. 74% of lenders flagged economic weakness as the top risk, followed by soft fundamentals and valuation uncertainty.

Why This Matters: More lender competition is good news for strong assets and experienced sponsors, because it can mean better pricing, more options, and a little breathing room on execution. But the fact that lenders are still openly worried about weak growth, soft fundamentals, and outdated office stock tells you this is not a broad recovery, it is a selective one.

🚗 The $100K Parking Problem

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Parking minimums are quietly killing housing supply by adding $50K to $100K per unit and making many projects unworkable. Cities like Toronto are starting to scrap the rules, and early signs show developers building more units with less parking.

• Parking minimums force developers to build costly stalls, often 1 to 2 per unit, adding $50,000 to $100,000 per space and up to $25M on a typical mid-size project.

• These costs get passed directly to buyers and renters, making housing less affordable while limiting how many units can be built.

• Many projects become financially unviable once parking requirements are factored in, especially in mid-sized cities where margins are tighter.

• Cities like Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary have started removing or reducing parking minimums, with early results showing faster lease-ups.

Why This Matters: Eliminating parking minimums is only a clear win in locations where transit is actually reliable enough for people to live without a car. In much of Toronto, parking still carries real value, so removing it does not automatically make a project better. For investors, the opportunity is in knowing which sites can truly support less parking and which ones are just pretending they can.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

If you bought a GTA condo in 2022, the median resale price in January 2026 says you are down $116K.

But if you bought in 2016, you are up $161K, proving that in Toronto real estate, timing does a lot of the heavy lifting.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

Finding the right service providers in real estate isn’t easy. Our Trusted Providers are handpicked by Urban 411 to help you work with professionals you can rely on.

Cardinal Law

Know your deals are legally bulletproof
Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
👋 Follow us on Instagram for daily news bites!

💰 The Government is Buying Condos Now?

Source: TMX News Corp File 

The 411: Ontario backs a $1.3B fund to buy unsold GTA condos and convert them into rentals, targeting 2,200 units including 550 affordable homes.

• A new $1.3B fund backed by Ontario will buy blocks of unsold GTA condos and convert them into long-term rental housing.

• The initiative is run by High Art Capital with support from the Building Ontario Fund, which is contributing up to $300M in mezzanine financing plus a small equity stake.

• The plan targets 2,200 units in the near term, including about 550 affordable rentals priced at either 25% below market rent or 30% of median GTA household income.

• Eligible properties must be newly completed condos built after Jan 1, 2023, with at least 10 unsold units in the same building.

• Leasing and property management will be handled by Tridel and Menkes, while a non-profit will allocate the affordable units.

Why This Matters: This looks less like a housing fix and more like a developer rescue. The government is stepping in to absorb remaining condo inventory developers could not sell, while renters get little relief from the underlying affordability problem. The real question is not whether this helps housing, but why public-backed capital is being used to clean up private-market backlog.

🔍 RECO Cracks Down on Brokerages

Source: Real Estate Magazine 

The 411: RECO will require annual brokerage financial filings after trust account scandals exposed weak oversight in Ontario real estate.

• RECO is forcing all Ontario real estate brokerages to file annual financial reports, a clear sign the trust account mess has gotten too big to ignore.

• The move is part of an eight-point modernization plan sparked by the iPro Realty scandal, where about $10M went missing from trust accounts.

• RECO says the filings will help spot financial red flags earlier and support a more risk-based compliance model, with more scrutiny aimed at firms showing warning signs.

• OREA is backing the tougher oversight and says the changes should help rebuild confidence in how deposits and trust funds are handled.

Why This Matters: This is a basic consumer protection issue. Trust accounts hold client money, so stronger financial oversight is intended to reduce the risk of problems going undetected. The real test will be whether these new rules help RECO identify issues earlier and restore confidence in the system.

🌍 Iran War Hits Mortgage Renewals

Source: Yahoo Finance 

The 411: New CRA enforcement means Canadian landlords need tighter tax planning in 2026.

• Global tensions around Iran are now rippling into Canada’s housing market through one key channel: mortgage rates.

• When oil prices spike, investors worry about inflation. That pushes government bond yields higher, which lenders use to price fixed mortgages.

• Since the conflict escalated, some lenders have already lifted fixed mortgage rates by roughly 0.25 percentage points.

• The timing is brutal. Canada is in the middle of a massive renewal wave, with about 1 million households expected to renew their mortgage in 2026.

• Mortgage rates remain relatively competitive for now, with some five-year fixed rates still below 4% and variables around 3.35%.

• But volatility is the bigger issue. Experts say geopolitical headlines are now moving bond markets and mortgage pricing almost in real time.

Why This Matters: Canada is already in a massive mortgage renewal wave. When oil spikes and bond yields jump, mortgage rates tend to follow. That means global conflicts can quietly turn into higher monthly payments for homeowners

✈️ Ford Seizes Airport Land

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Doug Ford plans to expropriate Toronto’s stake in Billy Bishop Airport to allow jets and expand the downtown runway.

• Doug Ford says Ontario will seize Toronto’s stake in Billy Bishop Airport to push ahead with plans to allow jets.

• The goal is to remove the city from the tripartite agreement that currently restricts jets at the downtown airport.

• Ford argues the airport is a “crown jewel” economic asset and says Toronto will be compensated for the land and up to $5M a year in lost revenue.

• The airport currently handles about 2.8M passengers annually using 78-seat turboprop planes operated by Porter and Air Canada.

• The province hopes expansion could happen as early as 2030, though no detailed plan for runway length, flights or passenger capacity has been released.

Why This Matters: Billy Bishop is one of Canada’s most constrained airports, so any expansion could significantly increase downtown air capacity. But changing the rules that govern the airport would require cooperation across multiple levels of government. For now, the proposal signals a potential shift in how the airport could operate in the future.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada’s housing downturn is now the deepest among major economies. Data shows nominal residential property prices in Canada fell 18% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, worse than every country on the chart.

That is not just a correction. That is Canada moving from housing leader to global underperformer.

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Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

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Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
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🤑 Distressed Deals Hit the Market

Source: Globe and Mail

The 411: Canada’s real estate mess is getting uglier. Distressed sales jumped from 119 in 2023 to 252 in 2025, with land taking the biggest hit.

• Canada logged 252 distressed real estate sales in 2025 worth $1.42B, up from 191 deals worth $1.5B in 2024 and 119 worth $767M in 2023, according to Altus Group.

• Development land is the hardest hit asset class because projects are stalled and the land generates no income while carrying costs rise.

• Many troubled projects involve newer developers who entered the market during the boom but lack the capital or experience to weather delays.

• Lenders are now feeling the pressure, with more “credit bids” where banks take ownership of projects rather than accept large losses.

• Some development sites carrying $40M to $60M in debt are now estimated to be worth only $10M to $15M in the current market.

Why This Matters: Distress is creating opportunity, with receivership sales putting land and half-built projects on the market at deep discounts. At the same time, banks are holding assets instead of selling, which shows the industry is still waiting for a rebound rather than accepting today’s pricing. That matters because if the true bottom does not arrive until 2026 or 2027, Canada’s housing slowdown could drag on a lot longer than we expected.

💸 Canada Has a Spending Problem

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada’s government is spending much faster than the economy is growing, and that could keep mortgage rates higher for longer.

• Public investment rose 3.5% a year over the past three years, while GDP grew just 1.7%.

• At the same time, business investment has been weak, so government spending is doing more of the heavy lifting.

• Government spending now makes up more than 25% of Canada’s GDP, a share usually seen during downturns.

• Day-to-day program spending is expected to slow, while capital spending like defense and infrastructure grows.

• More government borrowing means more competition for money in the market.

• That can push bond yields higher, which raises borrowing costs for mortgages and business loans.

Why This Matters: Mortgage rates are not driven only by the Bank of Canada. Heavy government borrowing can also keep bond yields elevated, which puts pressure on fixed mortgage rates. That is bad news for homebuyers, developers, and investors hoping cheaper financing is just around the corner.

🧾 Landlord Tax Rules Tighten

Source: Yahoo Finance 

The 411: New CRA enforcement means Canadian landlords need tighter tax planning in 2026.

• Non-compliant short-term rentals are the biggest risk. The CRA can deny all expense deductions and tax the full income.

• Example: earn $25,000 with $10,000 in expenses. If compliant, you are taxed on $15,000. If not, you are taxed on all $25,000.

• Airbnb and Vrbo now report host income directly to the CRA, making undeclared income easier to catch.

• Landlords can still deduct key costs like mortgage interest, property taxes, condo fees, insurance, repairs, and management fees.

• Capital gains rules stayed intact, with only 50% of gains taxable after Ottawa dropped the proposed hike.

• But flipping rules are tougher. Sell within 365 days and profits may be taxed as full income.

Why This Matters: The era of casual landlord accounting is ending. With tighter rules and more reporting, tax planning is becoming a key part of real estate investing strategy. For investors already dealing with weaker rents and softer prices, missing deductions or misreporting income could turn a thin-margin property into a money loser fast.

🚨 Banks Warned on Condo Appraisals

Source: Reuters

The 411: OSFI is warning lenders that outdated condo appraisals could break mortgage rules as prices fall and pre-construction risk climbs.

• Canada’s banking regulator is leaning on lenders over a risky condo-era habit: using old appraisals to approve mortgages on units worth less by closing.

• OSFI warned banks that blanket appraisals could breach the federal 80% loan-to-value rule for uninsured mortgages if condo prices fall before closing.

• OSFI raised the issue directly with bank risk chiefs last October, then flagged marketing language that implied buyers would stay approved right through closing.

• RBC later changed its pre-construction mortgage wording, dropping language that said buyers would “stay approved until your closing date.”

Why This Matters: This is another sign Canada’s condo slump is no longer just a real estate problem. It is becoming a credit-risk problem too. Pre-construction condo values in some markets have dropped 10% to 30%, raising the odds of buyers walking away or lenders being left exposed.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Vacant listings have exploded. TRREB data shows new vacant for-sale and for-lease listings more than doubled from about 115,000 in 2016 to nearly 263,000 in 2025.

That is not just more supply. That is more unwanted supply with nowhere to go.

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Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

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🤖 Will AI Slash Realtor Commissions to 1% by 2027?

Source: Citrini Research

The 411: A viral Citrini Research report predicts real estate commissions will compress to under 1% by 2027 as AI agents with MLS access and transaction data instantly replicate traditional agent knowledge.

• Citrini's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" report argues AI will eliminate the information asymmetry that justified 5–6% commissions for decades.​

• By 2027, median buy‑side commissions in major metros drop from 2.5–3% to below 1%, with growing share of deals closing with no human buyer agent.

• Startups like Zown and Ridley are already offering 1–2% AI‑powered services, automating showings, negotiations, and pricing.​

• U.S. NAR settlement accelerated the trend; MLSs now use AI to catch commission violations.​

Why This Matters: If commissions compress to 1%, traditional brokerages become unviable unless they pivot to salaried models, flat fees, or AI augmentation. Buyers win on cost, but the real disruption hits sellers: agents who can't prove value beyond MLS access and relationships face extinction

🚫 More Real Estate Funds Halt Redemptions

Source: Bloomberg

The 411: More Canadian real estate funds are gating redemptions as rates and softer valuations squeeze cash flow.

• Avenue Living Asset Management is halting redemptions at two multibillion-dollar real estate trusts while it reviews a potential go-public transaction.

• The redemption delay runs for up to 6 months, effective March 31, 2026.

• Investors who redeemed at the end of February do not get paid on schedule and now have to wait.

• The trusts also stop taking new capital during the strategic review.

• Avenue Living says the two trusts represent the bulk of its C$9.8 billion in assets under management.

• Avenue Living did not disclose how much money was queued for redemptions or whether the suspension could extend beyond 6 months.

Why This Matters: Private real estate was sold as steady income with quarterly liquidity, but gates remind investors that access to cash can disappear fast.

💰 Canada’s Most Unaffordable Rental Cities

Source: Rentals.ca

The 411: The “most unaffordable” map is Canada’s “worst rental markets” are changing fast, and it’s no longer just a Vancouver and Toronto story.

• Rent-to-income pressure has eased since early 2023, but most provinces are still nowhere near 2019 affordability.

• Alberta is the only province under the 30% affordability line, with average asking rent at 23.4% of median renter household income.

• Calgary and Edmonton are even slightly better at about 23.2%, basically the only major-market “normal” left.

• Nova Scotia is now the least affordable province, with average asking rent at 37% of median income.

• Nova Scotia did improve from a brutal 46% peak in November 2022, but it’s still worst in Canada today.

• BC and Ontario are hovering at the line, with rents at 30.6% of income in BC and 30.5% in Ontario.

Why This Matters: The affordability map is being redrawn, and not in a good way. Markets once seen as “cheap alternatives” are now among the most stretched. As affordability deteriorates outside the usual superstar cities, policy risk spreads with it. Expect more pressure for rent caps and tenant protections.

🙅 Toronto Wants Sixplexes, Committees Don’t

Source: Toronto Star

The 411: A six‑storey, 10‑unit rental on Pharmacy Ave. checked all the boxes under Toronto’s new “major streets” policy, had support from city planning staff, and still got rejected by Scarborough’s Committee of Adjustment after neighbours complained about height, privacy, and parking.

• The proposal had endorsements from three city planning divisions and fit the city’s new density‑on‑major‑streets policy, but the local committee called it "undesirable" and "inappropriate"

• The committee used minor balcony and setback variances as grounds to reject it, even while acknowledging the height would soon be as‑of‑right under provincial law.

• Mayor Olivia Chow now wants committee reforms, including better training and streamlined decisions, after a body that approves 90%+ of cases effectively overruled council's housing policy.

• Developers say eight‑month appeals and inconsistent rulings will scare off capital from "missing middle" projects, ultimately pushing rents higher to cover delays and legal costs.

Why This Matters: Toronto keeps passing pro‑housing policies, but if unelected committees can challenge them, appeals and inconsistent rulings will scare off capital from "missing middle" projects. Ultimately pushing rents higher to cover delays and legal costs.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Pre con math is getting ugly

If values are down roughly 25%, that $800K unit you bought at launch can look like a $600K unit at closing.

Welcome to the appraisal gap.

Instagram post

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Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
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👴 Seniors Housing Becomes The Hot Asset

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

The 411: Canada’s seniors housing sector is tightening fast, with 93% occupancy, record deal flow, and a massive supply gap that could run well into the 2030s.

• National seniors housing occupancy hit 93% in 2025 and is on track for 95% in 2026.

• Construction starts have stayed below 1% of inventory for three straight years, not even replacing aging stock.

• Investors poured over $2.7B into seniors housing in 2025, with about 70% of deals led by public companies.

• Cap rates are compressing as debt markets stay supportive and more capital chases limited product.

• Cushman & Wakefield expects a new development cycle to kick off in 2026, but new units won’t really hit the market until 2029–2030.

• The market is estimated to need roughly 200,000 new rental units over the next decade just to stay balanced.

Why This Matters: Seniors housing is quietly becoming one of the most attractive cash‑flow plays in Canadian real estate, with rising rents, high occupancy, and almost no new supply in the ground. For investors, this is one of the few asset classes where demand is locked in by demographics rather than vibes, and where the real risk is getting in too late, not too early.

💰 Developer Offers “Price Protection” Guarantee

Source: The Star

The 411: Mattamy Homes is offering buyers in Ontario and Alberta a temporary “Price Protection Program” that refunds them if the base price of their specific model drops before closing.

• Mattamy’s promo runs until March 8 and covers select pre‑con condos and low‑rise homes in the GTA and Alberta.

• If the base price of the same model in the same community is lower 30 days before closing, buyers get a credit for the difference.

• Lot premiums and upgrades don’t count; the comparison is strictly on the base model price, which the developer controls.

• The move comes after GTA new‑home sales hit a 45‑year low and pre‑construction demand “basically died on arrival,” with stalled projects outnumbering active ones.

• Some agents say it’s a smart confidence booster; others call it a publicity stunt that doesn’t protect buyers if the wider market drops.

Why This Matters: When major builders start offering price guarantees, it’s a sign they’re more worried about selling inventory. For end users, this can shave some downside risk, but it doesn’t change the core problem: pre‑con is still priced off yesterday’s boom in a market that’s now full of unsold units.

⛪ What if Canada Turned 1 in 5 Churches into Homes?

Source: Real Estate Magazine

The 411: A Canadian non-profit is proposing a declaration to convert 20% of Canada’s 27,000 churches turned into affordable housing, tapping one of the country’s biggest untapped land banks.

• Canada has about 27,000 places of worship, and up to one‑third could close in the next decade.

• CMHC estimates Canada needs 3.5M additional homes by 2030 to restore affordability.

• Montreal‑based Relèven’s “Winnipeg Declaration” calls for converting 20% of churches into affordable housing or community uses.

• Faith groups are the second‑largest landholders in Canada after government, giving them outsized redevelopment potential.

• Groups like Relèven and Shared Ground help churches navigate vision, zoning, heritage rules, partners, and financing.

• Manitoba’s NDP government says it has a “direct interest” in these projects, seeing church lands as key to adding housing in built‑out neighbourhoods.

Why This Matters: If even a fraction of church land is repurposed, it unlocks infill sites in established, serviced neighbourhoods where new housing is hardest to build. For investors and developers, it signals a future pipeline of mission‑driven JV deals where returns, community benefits, and rezoning politics all collide.

🙅 Micro Shelters Welcome, Just Not Here

Source: CBC

The 411: Toronto finally wants to pilot micro‑shelter “tiny home” villages as part of its homelessness plan, but it’s asking nonprofits to provide their own land.

• A year after issuing a cease‑and‑desist to Tiny Tiny Homes for placing shelters in St. James Park, the city is now seeking partners for a two‑year micro‑shelter pilot.

• Applicants must supply both shelters and land, even though advocates argue the city is sitting on vacant or underused public sites.

• Staff say they spent a year reviewing 44 municipal properties and found none met size, location, or timing criteria without delaying other housing projects.

Why This Matters: Toronto is finally warming up to tiny‑shelter villages, but by refusing to use its own land, it risks turning a promising idea into another pilot that never scales. For builders and landowners, it hints at a new interim‑use niche: short‑term micro‑shelter leases on future development sites.

A micro-shelter by Tiny Homes that was ordered for removal by City Hall last year.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Over the last six decades, taxes have exploded into a family’s biggest “expense,” rising way faster than the core necessities they actually consume.

If you feel like you’re working harder but not living that much larger, this graph shows that an ever-growing slice of your income is being siphoned off before you even get to choose how to spend it.

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
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Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

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🏢 Toronto Office Market Bounces Back

Source: CBC

The 411: Toronto’s commercial real estate market just posted its first sustained growth since the pandemic. For the first time since 2019, more office space was leased than vacated in 2025.

• Toronto’s office market grew in 2025 for the first time since 2019, with more space leased than vacated.

• Office availability dropped from 21.2 percent to 19.2 percent year over year

• CoStar reports roughly $250 million in transactions since mid-2025, signalling stabilizing demand

• CBRE forecasts $56 billion in commercial real estate investment in 2026, up from $47 billion last year

• The rebound is largely driven by return-to-office mandates from the province and major banks

• Demand is strongest for “trophy” downtown towers near Union Station and higher order transit

• Tenants are prioritizing buildings with PATH access, restaurants, gyms, and upgraded layouts to make offices “commute worthy”

• Despite gains, about 35 million square feet remain available across the GTA
  • Lower-quality buildings outside the core face leasing challenges without upgrades
  • Geopolitical risks and recession fears remain watchlist items for 2026

Why This Matters: The office rebound isn't organic, it's mandated. Governments and banks are forcing workers back, propping up demand for Class A space. That means capital, tenants, and future value are concentrating in prime locations, leaving everything else behind. If you're betting on office, location and quality just became the only things that matter.

🚨 Late Report Costs Brokerage $150K

Source: Real Estate Magazine

The 411: FINTRAC issued Century 21 Heritage Group a nearly $150K penalty for not filing a suspicious transaction report early enough despite “reasonable grounds” to suspect potential money laundering/terrorist financing.

• FINTRAC hit Century 21 Heritage Group Ltd. with a nearly $150,000 penalty after a compliance review.

• FINTRAC says the brokerage didn’t file a Suspicious Transaction Report (STR) early enough when there were “reasonable grounds” to suspect possible money laundering/terrorist financing.

• The brokerage says an STR was ultimately filed, argues the fine doesn’t fit the circumstances, and is appealing in Federal Court.

• They claim the gap stemmed from an agent submitting incomplete client info, limiting proper risk assessment and documentation.

• Century 21 Canada’s EVP says brokerages are being asked to do more than they realistically can (can’t verify bank records/foreign entities), and suggests shifting more verification responsibility to banks.

• FINTRAC says 2024–25 had a record 23 notices of violation totaling $25M+, and real estate brokerages are a common target.

Why This Matters: This is a warning shot for every brokerage: even if you “eventually” report, timing and documentation are the whole game. FINTRAC is tightening the screws, and one weak link (an agent’s incomplete intake) can turn into a six-figure penalty, legal costs, and reputation hit.

🔥 Canada’s Hottest Rental Market

Source: Rent Cafe 

The 411: Rental demand stayed steady across Canada in Q4 2025, even with the typical late-year slowdown. The big story is interest spreading beyond the largest cities, driven by affordability pressure and limited supply.

• Moncton stays #1 for renter interest in Q4 2025, driven by tightening availability (-33% YoY) and higher page views (+34% YoY).

• Hamilton is the big mover: jumped +10 spots to #2 (score 92.95), with favourites up 200%+ YoY, plus higher views and saved searches.

• Halifax sits #3, while Saskatoon (#4) moved up and Regina (#5) slipped.

• Vancouver climbs into #7 (up 4 spots) as availability fell 32% YoY, suggesting renters are moving faster due to tighter supply.

• In major markets, engagement softened YoY (ex: Toronto page views -43%, Montréal page views -51%), which the report frames as shorter search cycles / more selective renters rather than demand disappearing

Why This Matters: This shows the rental squeeze isn’t just a Toronto/Vancouver story anymore. As buying stays expensive and inventory stays tight, demand is spreading into mid-sized “value” cities, which pushes up competition in places that used to feel affordable. When renters start moving faster and listings get snapped up quicker, it usually means less negotiating power, higher rent pressure, and more strain on local housing options across the country.

🏙️ Toronto Condos Under $400K Are Back

Source: CBC

The 411: Ontario regulators are moving toward allowing a new class of mutual funds that would allow everyday investors to access private assets such as real estate, infrastructure, and private credit. Supporters frame it as “access” and diversification.

• For the first time in years, some bachelor + 1-bed condos in Toronto are selling for under $400K, pulling renters back into the buyer pool.

• GTA condo prices fell 5.1% YoY in Q4 2025, and one Toronto area averaged ~$384K for listings in that quarter.

• Citywide, Toronto’s average condo price dropped to $690,607 in Q4 2025 (down from $715,920 the year before).

• Sales are also down with TRREB logging 3,880 condo sales in Q4 2025, down 15%.

• Some “cheap” inventory is investor stock sitting on the market because rentals aren’t cashflow positive right now.

Why This Matters: Buyers finally have leverage, but it may be a short window. If today’s weak pre-construction sales turn into fewer starts and completions, Toronto could end up back in a supply crunch once this inventory gets absorbed. Meanwhile, recent end-user buyers from the last 5 years are the ones eating the pain right now, either selling at a loss or holding longer than they planned.

🙌 Inflation Continues to Cool

Source: Yahoo Finance

The 411: Inflation slowed more than expected in January, and core measures eased further.

• CPI slowed to 2.3% year over year (vs 2.4% expected)

• Shelter inflation eased to 1.7%, with rents posting the biggest decline since 2020

• Gasoline prices fell 16.7% year over year, helping pull headline inflation lower

• Restaurant prices rose 12.3% year over year

Why This Matters: Some major banks have predicted that rates could move higher later in 2026 or 2027. But with core inflation trending down and shelter pressures easing, this report strengthens the case for stability, or even cuts if growth weakens. It does not guarantee lower rates, but it makes an imminent hike much harder to justify unless inflation reaccelerates.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

If you bought a GTA condo in 2016, you're still up $161K. Buy in 2022? You're down $116K.

The chart shows how brutally concentrated the damage is. Early buyers rode the wave up and locked in massive gains. But anyone who bought from 2020 onward is either breakeven or deep underwater

Fun fact: the same story occurred in the '80s GTA real estate frenzy.  Low rates, immigration boom, rental bidding wars. That boom ended with the crash of 1990, and it took until 1996 to find a bottom.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

Finding the right service providers in real estate isn’t easy. Our Trusted Providers are handpicked by Urban 411 to help you work with professionals you can rely on.

Cardinal Law

Know your deals are legally bulletproof
Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
👋 Follow us on Instagram for daily news bites!

🚨 RECO freezes 4 More Brokerages

Source: RECO

The 411: Ontario’s real estate regulator has taken action against four more brokerages after finding millions of dollars were improperly taken from trust accounts, deepening concerns about oversight failures across the industry.

• RECO found that $2.7M was unlawfully withdrawn from trust accounts at four Save Max brokerages and later replaced before month-end reconciliations.

• RECO issued notices of proposal to revoke registration, along with immediate suspension and freeze orders against:

  • Save Max Real Estate Inc., Save Max First Choice Real Estate Inc, Save Max Supreme Real Estate Inc, Save Max Ace Real Estate

  • Brokers Raman and Nidhi Dua

• According to RECO, funds were used for non-permitted purposes, including:

  • Loan payments, Property management fees, Taxes, Credit card balances and Vendor services.

• On February 3, RECO froze the brokerages’ bank accounts, calling it the “strongest safeguard available” to prevent further misuse of consumer funds.

Why This Matters: Trust accounts are supposed to be safe. If brokerages can quietly “borrow” millions, put it back before month-end, and keep operating until someone complains, that’s not a system working; that’s a system hoping no one looks too closely.

🏚️ Power-of-Sale Listings are Rising across Ontario

Source: Yahoo Finance 

The 411: Power-of-sale activity is picking up across Ontario, which usually signals that more homeowners are under financial strain (and that some “normal” listings may actually be near-forced sales behind the scenes

• Mortgage arrears are the key lead indicator. CMHC delinquency rates rose from 0.13% (Q1 2020) to 0.24% (Q3 2025).

• This is a lagging effect. Power-of-sales usually shows up months after missed payments and after failed attempts to sell voluntarily.

• A lot of cases trace back to 2020–mid 2022 leverage. Some owners stretched with LOCs/refis or bought extra properties when rates were ultra-low, then got squeezed as rates rose and prices cooled.

• Lenders may accept lower offers, which can influence nearby comps and valuations, especially in slow pockets.

• These homes often sell “as is” and may be poorly maintained, increasing buyer risk and potentially lowering sale prices.

🤔 Toronto Condos Need Flips to Survive

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Toronto’s condo pipeline runs on investor pre-sales. With inventory piling up and returns fading, investors stop showing up, pre-sales miss targets, and builders struggle to secure financing.

• Toronto’s condo market has been driven more by speculation and investor demand than by end-user housing demand.

• Condos rely heavily on pre-sales to secure construction financing, and lenders often require ~70% of units sold before issuing construction loans.

• Developers are holding roughly 3,975 completed but unsold units (Dec), up 56.8% YoY, with inventory near a decade-high.

• Investors could put down 20% deposits, use leverage, and plan to flip before completion. That strategy worked when prices rose, and borrowing was cheap.

• The system relies on asset price appreciation to validate leverage and sustain the pipeline, rather than on the condo’s underlying cash flow.

Why This Matters: If Toronto condos are built only when investors keep pouring in, banking on the next price jump, then the whole thing runs on momentum. When returns decline, that momentum disappears, pre-sales dry up, financing becomes more difficult, and projects start to stall.

🤑 Private Markets Wants Your Money

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Ontario regulators are moving toward allowing a new class of mutual funds that would allow everyday investors to access private assets such as real estate, infrastructure, and private credit. Supporters frame it as “access” and diversification.

• Ontario is proposing a new class of mutual funds that would allow retail investors to invest in private assets such as real estate, infrastructure, private equity, and private credit.

• These assets are currently restricted to pension funds, institutions, and wealthy accredited investors due to their complexity, risk, and lack of liquidity.

• The Ford government is pushing the initiative, with sources saying the proposal was rushed to help raise capital for large infrastructure and housing projects.

• The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) denies political pressure, but acknowledged the proposal aligns with government goals to “crowd in” private capital for public projects.

Why This Matters: It’s about finding new buyers for illiquid, high-fee assets at a time when private markets are under pressure. Retail investors may get access, but they also get the risk, the lockups, and the uncertainty, without the exits institutions can negotiate.

🏛️ Federal Workers Ordered Back to Office

Source: CBC News

The 411: The federal government will require most public servants to work in-office 4 days a week starting this summer, with executives returning full-time sooner. Unions say the move was rushed, poorly communicated, and disconnected from performance or productivity.

• Federal public servants will be required to work in-office at least 4 days per week starting July 6, 2026.

• Government executives will return full-time (5 days/week) starting May 4.

• Treasury Board says it will consult unions, but the policy was announced before negotiations.

• Major unions say they were blindsided and not meaningfully consulted.

• The policy shift comes as Ottawa plans to cut 40,000 public service jobs.

• Over 23,000 federal workers have already received notices their roles may be eliminated.

• Similar return-to-office mandates are already in place in Ontario, Alberta, and the City of Ottawa.

Why This Matters: For workers, the question is simple: is it worth it? More time in the office means higher commuting costs and less flexibility, arriving just as layoffs and contract negotiations create more uncertainty. The timing also aligns with government plans to shrink the public service, making the shift feel less about collaboration and more about pressure.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

This is one of those stats vs reality moments.

94,000 Canadians did not find work. They stopped looking. That exit from the labour force is why the unemployment rate fell, even as 27,000 jobs were lost.

If you are not actively job hunting, you are no longer counted as unemployed. On paper, things look better. In reality, it signals rising discouragement, not a stronger job market.

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🏦 Where Will Rates Go Next?

Source: Canadian Mortgage Trends

The 411: Canada’s biggest banks now agree on one thing and disagree on the part that matters most. While all six expect the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.25% through 2026, they are split down the middle on what comes next.

• All Big 6 banks forecast the BoC policy rate holding at 2.25% through 2026

• The split begins in 2027, with no clear consensus on direction

• 3 of 6 banks expect rate hikes once the easing cycle ends:

  • National Bank: First hike by late 2026, rising to 2.75%

  • Scotiabank: Gradual increases, reaching 3.00% by end-2027

  • RBC: Most aggressive outlook, calling for 3.25% by Q4 2027

• 3 of 6 banks expect rates to stay flat at 2.25% through 2027:

  • TD, CIBC, BMO

• Variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs remain directly exposed to these outcomes through the prime rate

• A 25-bp rate move typically changes monthly payments by ~$12.50 per $100,000 of mortgage debt

📦 Developers Stuck With Record Inventory

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: CMHC data shows completed unsold new homes just hit a record high and nearly half are sitting in Toronto and Vancouver.

• Completed and unsold inventory hit 18,998 units in Dec 2025 (record high)

• Up 35.5% YoY and ~52% above the long-run average.

• 49.7% of Canada’s completed unsold new homes are in Toronto and Vancouver.

• Toronto has 3,975 units completed and unsold (+56.8% YoY), most since 2016.

• Vancouver has 5,458 units (+35.8% YoY), near-record and more than double its long-run average.

Why This Matters: The market is stuck in a three-way stalemate. Investors, who drove much of the last cycle, aren’t stepping back in. Developers can’t cut prices meaningfully because costs remain high.. And buyers, now firmly in a buyer’s market, are no longer willing to absorb small, investor-oriented units at today’s prices, they want livable homes that justify the cost. Until one side gives, inventory will stay elevated and price discovery will remain frozen.

📉 Nova Scotia Leads Canada’s Price Drop

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: .Canada’s national home price decline continues to be driven by Ontario and B.C., but cracks are spreading. In December, Nova Scotia posted the largest monthly price drop in the country, while only PEI and Quebec managed gains.

• The typical Canadian home price fell 0.7% in December to ~$660,000

• Prices are now 4.0% lower YoY and 21.6% below the March 2022 peak

• Only two provinces saw price gains in December:

  • PEI: +0.9%

  • Quebec: +0.4%

  • New Brunswick was effectively flat, while all other provinces declined

• Prices are now 4.0% lower YoY and 21.6% below the March 2022 peak

• B.C. follows with prices down 16.6% from peak

• Nova Scotia is now the third-largest provincial decline from peak:

  • -5.6% total, with over half of that happening in just one month

• Ontario remains the worst hit overall:

  • -25.7% from peak

Why This Matters: Smaller markets held up longer because they rode migration, low rates, and relative affordability. When prices start falling sharply there, it suggests demand is finally hitting its ceiling nationwide. Ontario and B.C. led the correction, but Nova Scotia shows it may be spreading. Once sentiment turns in these secondary markets, price declines tend to be faster and harder to reverse, because there’s less investor depth and fewer high-income buyers to cushion the fall.

👷🏽 Trades Jobs Pile Up in Calgary

Source: Calgary Herald

The 411: Canada’s construction boom is running into a hard constraint: labour. New data shows Calgary alone accounts for nearly a quarter of all trades job vacancies nationwide, raising questions about who will actually build Canada’s ambitious housing and infrastructure plans.

• Canada currently has 22,000+ unfilled jobs in trades, transport, and equipment operations.

• Nearly 25% of those vacancies are located in Calgary, an unusually high concentration in one city.

• Calgary’s population has surged 20% since 2020, driven by interprovincial migration and immigration.

• The region could exceed 2 million residents by 2029, adding further pressure on housing and infrastructure.

• Alberta has posted record housing starts for a second consecutive year, intensifying demand for skilled trades.

• Many newcomers do not have construction training, limiting their ability to fill these roles.

• The trades workforce is also aging, with retirements reducing labour supply faster than replacements arrive.

Why This Matters: Canada’s housing problem isn’t only about zoning, interest rates, or financing anymore, it’s about who’s actually doing the work. Calgary shows what happens when population growth and construction demand outpace skilled labour supply. Even with record housing starts and political pressure to build faster, labour shortages can quietly cap how much housing gets delivered, pushing costs higher and timelines longer. In short, you can’t build your way out of a housing crisis if you don’t have enough people to build.

❓ Is Toronto’s Vacancy Tax Working?

Source: CTV News

The 411: Toronto’s vacant home tax was designed to free up housing supply, but years into the policy, it’s unclear whether it’s actually putting more homes on the market. With sales at record lows and intentional vacancies already rare, critics are questioning whether the tax still fits today’s market reality.

• Toronto introduced the vacant home tax in 2022 to improve housing availability and affordability.

• The city reports 6,944 vacant homes in 2022, 5,077 in 2023, and 5,989 in 2024.

• Vacant homes represent less than 1% of all properties in Toronto each year.

• The city cannot confirm whether any vacant properties were actually rented or occupied as a result of the tax.

• Many homes in the market are sitting unsold not by choice, but due to soft demand and heavy competition.

• The city projected $103M in billed revenue for 2024, but actual collections remain unclear.

Why This Matters: Policies built for a tight market may lose effectiveness when demand weakens and listings pile up. If homes are sitting vacant because buyers and renters won’t absorb them at current prices, not because owners are hoarding supply a vacancy tax risks adding pressure without really increasing housing availability.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canadians make up just 0.5% of the U.S. population, yet they account for 14% of all foreign home purchases the U.S.

That means a country with 41 million people is neck-and-neck with China's 1.4 billion in the race for U.S. real estate.

Chinese buyers edged ahead in 2025 at 15%, spending $13.7 billion after an 83% surge in purchases. But Canadians still dropped $5.9 billion, buying an average of $834,000 per property.

In 2025, searches for U.S. homes by Canadians dropped 30%, with the steepest declines in Florida and Arizona snowbird markets

Foreign homebuyers in the US by nationality

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📉 Toronto Developers Just Had Their Worst Year in 40+ Years

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Greater Toronto’s new-home market just closed out its weakest year on record. Despite prices falling sharply from peak, homes remain out of reach for end-users, leaving developers stuck with record-low sales and elevated inventory heading into 2026.

• New-home prices in the GTA are down as much as 25% from peak, yet still sit near 2021 levels

• New condo prices slipped 18% from peak, but are still around 2024 pricing

• Developers sold just 5,314 new homes in 2025, the worst year since records began in 1981

• December sales hit only 240 units, the weakest December in 30 years

• Condo sales plunged 42% YoY, despite being the more “affordable” option

• Inventory remains elevated at 20,800+ units, the 2nd-highest December level in 9 years

Why This Matters: Prices are still too high for buyers, while construction and financing costs are too high for developers to cut meaningfully. That leaves new housing stuck in limbo, with weak demand at the top end likely to spill over into broader price pressure. Until incomes rise or costs fall, Toronto’s new-build market looks set to remain frozen well into 2026.

🏗️ Canada Builds More, Toronto Builds Less

Source: CMCH

The 411: Housing starts rose nationally in 2025, driven largely by rental construction and strength in Western and Québec markets, even as Toronto and Vancouver saw notable pullbacks.

• Canada recorded 259,028 housing starts in 2025, up 5.6% YoY and the 5th-highest year on record

• Growth was driven almost entirely by record rental construction, which made up just over 50% of urban starts

• Canada’s six largest CMAs saw a 3.9% increase, masking major regional divergence

  • Calgary and Edmonton hit record annual starts

  • Montreal starts surged 58% YoY; Ottawa-Gatineau up 12%

  • Toronto starts fell 31% YoY, Vancouver down 3%

• Builders are shifting away from large residential towers toward smaller-scale projects

• CMHC warns 2026 is starting from a weaker construction position, with slowing momentum expected

Why This Matters: Millions of households will redirect cash from spending, saving, and investing just to cover higher mortgage payments, which quietly drags on the broader economy.

🏠 Canada’s Rental Market Is Cracking

Source: BNBloomberg

The 411: After years of surging rents, Canada’s rental market is shifting toward tenants, with falling prices, rising vacancy rates, and landlords offering incentives as record rental supply comes online.

• Rental prices across Canada are falling, and landlords are offering incentives like free rent, cash bonuses, free parking, and internet

• Average asking rents fell 3.1% in 2025 and are 5.4% lower than two years ago

• December rents dropped ~8% in Vancouver, 5% in Toronto and Calgary, 2% in Montreal

• More rental completions are coming in 2026, adding further supply

• Roughly 180,000 rental units are currently under construction

• Vacancy rates are rising, with purpose-built rental vacancy at 3.1%.

• Many would-be buyers are choosing to rent while waiting for home prices to bottom

Why This Matters: Landlords are prioritizing occupancy and tenant retention over rent hikes, signalling a shift from scarcity to competition. With supply rising and demand softening, pricing power is weakening, turning the rental market into a test of endurance how long owners can absorb lower returns, and whose balance sheets are deep enough to last until conditions recover.

🎓 Ontario Universities Ask Ford for Billions

Source: Global News

The 411: Ontario colleges and universities are asking the Ford government for billions in new funding, warning that tuition freezes and international student caps have left the sector underfunded and facing growing deficits.

• Institutions say tuition freezes and federal caps on international students have left them financially strained

• Universities project $265M in deficits this year, growing to $1.3B by 2028–29

• Universities are requesting $1.2B more in annual operating funding, rising to $1.6B by 2028–29

• Colleges are requesting $1.5B in additional funding

• Prior to the federal cap, international students made up ~30% of revenue for Ontario colleges

• Colleges say they have already:

  • Cut $1.8B in spending

  • Suspended 600 programs

  • Eliminated 8,000 jobs

• Tuition was cut 10% in 2019 and then frozen, increasing reliance on international enrolment

Why This Matters: Ontario’s post-secondary funding crisis is partly self-inflicted. Years of reliance on international enrolment turned parts of the system into diploma mills, driving up costs, straining housing, and ultimately damaging Canada’s value proposition for students. Now that the pipeline has been capped, institutions are exposed, and taxpayers are being asked to backfill a model that may no longer make sense in its current form.

🤔 WTF of the Week

So… the big mortgage renewal shock everyone was panicking about mostly didn’t really happen.

The data puts it in perspective and the actual payment increases came in far below expectations across the major banks.

Not painless, but nowhere near the disaster many were warned about.

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Zown

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Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
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📈 These Housing Markets Soared While Toronto Crashed

Source: Financial Post

The 411: While Ontario and BC housing markets continue to struggle, three provinces are defying the national downturn with near double-digit price growth. Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan, and Quebec are Canada's unexpected housing hotspots in 2026.

• Canada's housing market ended 2025 with sales and prices down around 4%

• Ontario was the weakest market, with Toronto condos losing almost all pandemic gains after nine straight quarters of decline

• BC wasn't much better, with Vancouver seeing sales drop 4% and prices fall 10% in 2025

• Newfoundland and Labrador posted nearly double-digit price growth for the second straight year

• Saskatchewan saw average home prices rise 9% in 2025, driven by firm job growth, a strong economy, and affordable housing

• Quebec City led the nation with a 17% price increase in 2025, fueled by elevated household savings, and tight supply

Why This Matters: Ontario and BC dominate housing headlines, but they're not the whole story. Smaller markets with better affordability, less exposure to trade wars, and stronger local economies are thriving while the major metros stumble. This is a reminder that opportunities exist outside Toronto and Vancouver, especially in provinces with tighter supply and healthier fundamentals.

😬 2026 Mortgage Renewals Will Hurt

Source: Bloomberg

The 411: Millions of homeowners renewing in 2026 will feel real payment pain, but most are expected to hold on rather than flood the market with distressed listings.

• Roughly 1.15 million mortgages across Canada will renew in 2026, many locked in at ultra-low 2021 rates.

• Five-year fixed mortgages taken out near 1.6–1.9% are now renewing closer to 4%, pushing monthly payments up 25–30%.

• Despite payment shock, experts do not expect a wave of forced selling or a housing bubble burst.

• Many owners are choosing to absorb higher payments rather than sell at a loss in a weak market.

Why This Matters: Millions of households will redirect cash from spending, saving, and investing just to cover higher mortgage payments, which quietly drags on the broader economy.

🔒Another REIT Traps Investors

Source: Global & Mail

The 411 : Romspen’s redemption freeze has trapped investors while large problem loans work through restructurings and asset sales.

• Romspen Investment Corp. says its redemption crisis is tied to a handful of very large, complex real estate loans that have gone bad.

• Investors in Romspen’s $2.7B Mortgage Investment Fund have been locked in since November 2022, when redemptions were frozen.

• Five major projects account for much of the trouble, each with loans over $100M, spanning Canada and the U.S.

• All five projects are now in receivership or creditor protection, ranging from near-complete developments to early-stage projects.

• As of Q3 2025, 55% of Romspen’s loans were under review, up sharply from 39% a year earlier.

Why This Matters: This highlights the real risk behind private mortgage and real estate funds that promise steady income and liquidity. When a small number of oversized projects fail, investors can be trapped for years, paying fees while missing out on better-performing markets. It’s a stark reminder that “private” doesn’t mean safer—and that concentration risk matters just as much as headline yields.

🛑 Ford Stops Affordable Housing Near Transit

Source: CBC

The 411: Ontario is pausing affordable housing requirements near major transit stations in Toronto, Mississauga, and Kitchener until 2027, arguing the rules were slowing new construction.

• The Doug Ford government plans to pause affordable housing requirements near major transit hubs until 2027.

• The pause applies to Toronto, Mississauga, and Kitchener, where inclusionary zoning rules are already approved or in effect.

• Inclusionary zoning forces developers to include below-market rental units in new projects near transit.

• The province says these rules are hurting project viability and causing developments to be delayed or cancelled.

Why This Matters: Pausing these rules makes projects slightly cheaper and helps developers improve their returns. The tradeoff is fewer guaranteed affordable homes near transit, pushing the affordability problem back onto renters.

🤔 WTF of the Week: The Wildest Graph You’ll See This Week

Canada's net international migration went from 1.2 million in 2023 to negative 20,000 in 2025. That's the sharpest collapse in Canada's immigration history.​​

The uncomfortable truth? Immigration has been floating Canada's economy for years, and it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. But this whiplash from record highs to sharp cuts has created a mess that won't resolve itself quietly.

And here's the kicker: 2.1 million temporary residents have expired or expiring permits in 2025-2026. Ottawa is banking on the assumption that all of them will pack up and leave voluntarily.

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Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
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😬 Canada’s $30B Real Estate Lockup

Source: Bloomberg

The 411: Canada’s private real estate market is under strain as billions in investor capital are locked behind withdrawal limits, exposing how “liquid” real estate products can quickly freeze when markets turn.

• Roughly C$30 billion (about US$22 billion) is currently frozen as Canadian private real estate funds restrict or halt investor withdrawals.

• Nearly 40% of Canada’s ~C$80 billion private real estate fund market now faces some form of gating

• Gating is when an investment fund temporarily restricts or suspends investor withdrawals to prevent forced sales of assets (such as real estate) during periods of heavy redemption demand.

• Many fund managers have not provided clear timelines for when withdrawals will reopen, leaving investors trapped.

• These funds are a key source of financing for construction and development loans, so frozen capital risks slowing new housing supply.

• Some managers have fully suspended redemptions, while others cap monthly withdrawals or cut distributions, showing stress across different strategies.

Why This Matters: This isn’t just an investor problem. Private real estate funds are a major source of financing for housing construction and development, so when capital gets stuck, fewer projects get built, supply stays tight, and housing affordability pressures linger. For investors, this means if they have planned to use or reallocate their capital, and suddenly it becomes inaccessible, it undermines trust and forces investors to rethink how much risk and illiquidity they are actually willing to accept in private real estate going forward.

🧑🏻‍💼 The Office Market Isn’t Dead After All

Source: CBRE

The 411: Canada’s office market is quietly resetting: demand is holding up downtown, top-tier buildings are filling first, sublet space is clearing, and with almost no new offices being built, the balance is slowly shifting back toward quality space

• Canada’s office market posted positive net absorption for a second straight year, totaling 2.2M sq. ft. in 2025

• Toronto led the recovery, driven mainly by downtown leasing and large-format deals of 50,000 sq. ft. or more.

• Class A downtown vacancy fell to its lowest level in three years, with trophy assets recording vacancy rates below 10% in most markets.

• Return-to-office momentum is supporting demand, broadening across industries and spilling into the next-best office product.

• Office construction is at historic lows, with record-low starts and completions and virtually no meaningful new supply expected beyond 2026.

• New office deliveries in 2025 were among the lowest in 25 years, and much of the new space delivered remains vacant.

Why This Matters: After years of headlines declaring the death of the office, the data paints a more complicated picture. Demand is quietly stabilizing, especially for high-quality downtown buildings, while new construction has basically hit pause. The result? The best offices are starting to win again, while the weakest are being left behind, either reinventing themselves or fading out.

🔑 Office Mandates Are Boosting Condo Rentals

Source: The Star

The 411: Back-to-office mandates are driving high-income workers to rent downtown condos. A growing cohort of these renters bought suburban homes during the pandemic and now refuse to sell at a loss or uproot families, so they're renting a second place instead of buying.​

• Major banks have mandated employees return 4-5 days a week, and Ontario government workers were ordered back full-time on January 5​

• Realtors report high-income earners ($370K+) are snapping up units near transit hubs, creating bidding wars for well-located condos​

• Office vacancies downtown dropped from 18.6% to 15.9% in 2025 and are expected to hit 12-14% by the end of 2026 as leasing activity accelerates

• Downtown rental volume jumped to 57,700 units in the first three quarters of 2025, up from 36,600 in 2022​

• Three-bedroom units saw a 34% rental increase in Q3 2025 compared to 2024, as workers want more livable space​

• Despite surging rental demand, average Toronto rents dropped to $2,521 in November due to record new condo supply hitting the market​

Why This Matters: This surge in demand is helping struggling landlords fill vacant units faster, but massive new supply means rents aren't climbing. For investors, it's a silver lining after years of soft rental activity. For the condo market, it confirms buyers are still sitting on the sidelines.

⚖️ RECO Promises Big Changes in 2026

Source: The Star

The 411: Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) is rolling out a major overhaul in 2026, launching eight initiatives focused on modernization, governance, technology, and rebuilding trust, alongside a new leadership team led by acting CEO Jean Lépine.

• RECO is undergoing a major reset in 2026 to rebuild trust with consumers and the real estate industry.

• The changes follow heavy criticism from a provincial review and external audit, especially over RECO’s handling of the iPro Realty trust account scandal.

• RECO outlined eight transformation initiatives for 2026, targeting regulatory modernization, stronger governance, improved stakeholder engagement, and a public awareness campaign.

• New executive appointments include Emilee Escobar as Chief Strategy & Corporate Officer and Samantha Pinto as Chief Regulatory Modernization Officer, effective Jan. 19, 2026.

• Leadership says the focus is on action over words, with accountability for delivering real change.

Why This Matters: RECO’s basically saying “our bad” after the trust account mess, and now it’s ripping up the rulebook to try and earn back trust. When a regulator can’t protect trust accounts, the risk doesn’t stop with agents; it spills into the broader housing market. This reset matters because confidence in real estate depends on strong, credible regulation, not after-the-fact cleanups.

🤔 WTF of the Week: $1700 for rent but the landlord can use your room as his office

A Toronto landlord is renting out the main floor of their apartment but with one absurd condition: tenants cannot be home Monday to Friday, 9 to 5.

The landlord needs the space as a personal office during work hours and expects the tenant to "basically be living alone" only on evenings, weekends, and holidays.

So what happens if you get sick or catch COVID and need to isolate at home? 

This isn't a rental. It's a timeshare with a landlord who thinks they can dictate when you're allowed to exist in the space you're paying for. 

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Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
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😬 Your Government Lost Track of 5M Visa Holders

Source: National Post

The 411: Five million visas expired in 2025, but Canada doesn't track exits. Removals hit record highs, yet Ottawa still can't say how many people overstayed or where they are now.

• Federal estimates put the number of undocumented migrants at 500,000 to 600,000 by late 2024, though experts warn the real figure could be higher.

• Temporary migrants doubled from 1.4M in 2022 to 3.1M in 2025, before dropping slightly to 2.85M

• Canada Border Services Agency reported a record 18,785 “enforced removals” in 2025

• Conservatives warn Ottawa has “no plan” to manage overstays, noting 47,000 student visa holders were found non-compliant in 2025.

Why This Matters: Canada’s immigration system is hitting a data wall; millions of permits are ending, but Ottawa can’t say who’s actually leaving. Without faster fixes, 2026 could turn into a paperwork crisis with real-world fallout, with tighter rental markets, strained services, and a growing underground workforce the government can’t track.

🏨 Hotels Become Canada's Hottest Asset

Source: Toronto Star

The 411: Canada’s hotel market is attracting heavy investor interest as limited supply, high construction costs, and strong travel demand push capital toward existing and mixed-use hotel assets.

• Canada’s hotel market is running hot, with 2025 transaction volume hitting $1.9B.

• Average price per key hit $230K, which is up 50% in a year, as investors fight over limited listings and costly new builds push up resale values.

• High construction costs (over $200K per key) are steering investors toward acquiring and renovating existing hotels.

• Ontario still leads, but tight inventory is pushing capital into Calgary, Montreal, Halifax, and other secondary markets.

• Mixed-use is the new buzzword: hotels with residential or retail components are in demand for better returns and easier financing.

Why This Matters: Hotel investors are battling over scarce assets as Canada’s travel rebound and high construction costs turn existing hotels into gold mines. With capital flowing and supply tight, hospitality has become one of the few real estate sectors still delivering both growth and stability.

🧑‍💼 Ford’s Five-Day Office Mandate Begins

Source: The Star

The 411: Ford’s back-to-office push is turning into a logistical and labour headache. With space shortages, legal battles, and a restless workforce, Ontario’s push for “normal” may cost more and take longer than planned.

• As of Jan. 5, all 60,000 Ontario public servants are required back in the office five days a week under Doug Ford’s new mandate.

• Ford says the province is “working on” finding enough office space, with many buildings under renovation or over capacity.

• Ontario’s biggest office hub, the Macdonald Block, is two years late and $1.5B over budget.

• Nearly 11,000 workers have filed formal requests to keep partial remote options, flooding the Treasury Board with appeals.

• Unions call the order “ridiculous” and are challenging it before the Ontario Labour Relations Board, arguing it violates bargaining freezes.

• Ford insists the move is about “getting back to normal”

Why This Matters: Return to office isn’t really about getting more work done. It’s about justifying empty buildings, reasserting control after years of remote flexibility, and protecting downtown economies. The risk is that governments solve a political problem by creating an operational one.

💸 Minto REIT Goes Private in $2.3B Deal

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Minto Apartment REIT is going private in a $2.3B deal with Crestpoint, which takes 50.1%

• Minto Apartment REIT is going private in a $2.3-billion deal led by Crestpoint Real Estate Investments.

• Crestpoint will own 50.1%, and Minto Group (Greenberg family) keeps 49.9%

• Buyers are paying $18 per unit and a 32% premium over Minto’s last close, but still 13% below its 2019 level

• Minto’s stock once thrived on cheap debt and tight supply, but rising rates and new condo builds crushed rents

• Lower immigration and more rental competition have turned the heat down on multifamily returns

Why This Matters: Going private lets Minto escape the pressure of public markets and focus on long-term strategy instead of quarterly results. It also signals that institutional investors still see value in Canadian rentals, even as public sentiment cools. With rising costs and softening rents, expect more REITs to follow suit by consolidating ownership in fewer, deeper-pocketed hands.

📝 Bank of Canada 2026 Rate Announcement Dates

Source: Bank of Canada

The 411: The Bank of Canada dropped its 2026 rate announcement schedule, mapping out eight key decision dates that will shape next year’s borrowing costs and market sentiment.

• Jan 28

• Mar 18

• Apr 29

• Jun 10

• Jul 15

• Sep 2

• Oct 28

• Dec 9.

🤔 WTF of the Week: Pre-con Buyer on Temporary Visa Gets Sued

The real question: who buys a house in a foreign country while on a temporary visa?

Before 2023, anyone could buy property in Canada without needing to live here. The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act changed that in 2023, banning foreign buyers from purchasing homes in metro areas like Toronto and Vancouver.

But buying a preconstruction condo with a 3-5 year closing timeline when your visa status isn't guaranteed? That's a massive gamble.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

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Cardinal Law

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👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

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Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
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🏘️ Home Prices Across Canada One Year Later

The 411: Housing markets across Canada moved in very different directions in 2025. Ontario and British Columbia recorded the largest price declines, reflecting weaker demand and rising inventory, while Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada posted gains, led by Newfoundland and Labrador.

Alberta and Manitoba remained relatively stable, highlighting a year of regional divergence rather than a national trend.

Benchmarks reflect MLS HPI provincial composites; Jan vs Oct 2025.

🌎 How Canada’s Market Performed Compared to Other G7 Nations

The 411: Data from BIS shows Canada posted one of the sharpest real housing price declines among advanced economies in 2025. That compares with modest gains in Europe and relative stability elsewhere. Globally, real house prices fell 0.8%, but advanced economies averaged a 0.6% increase

💸 The Best Markets for Buyers in 2026

The 411: By late 2025, several Ontario and B.C. markets clearly shifted into buyer-friendly territory. Inventory rose sharply while sales slowed, giving buyers more choice, more negotiating power, and fewer bidding wars. Here is a list of markets where buyers had the most leverage

• Mississauga
  Buyer leverage increased as the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 32%. Listings greatly outnumbered buyers, creating strong room to negotiate.

• Toronto
  With a 37% ratio and more than 14,000 active listings, buyers had the widest selection in years. Homes took longer to sell, reducing pressure to bid aggressively.

• Windsor-Essex
  The ratio dropped to 39%, officially pushing the region into buyer-friendly conditions after years of tighter supply.

• Fraser Valley
  A 33% ratio meant balanced to buyer-leaning conditions, especially for suburban homes without the urgency seen in past cycles.

• Brampton and Barrie
  Ratios around 30–35% confirmed strong buyer control across multiple Ontario markets.

📉 The Bank of Canada Slashed Rates Four Times

• The year started with the overnight rate at 3.25%

• First cut landed January 29, trimming the rate to 3.00%

• October delivered the fourth cut, landing at 2.25%

• The Bank held steady at its final December meeting

• Net result for 2025 was a full 100-bp (1%) drop

• Lower rates helped sentiment, but buyers stayed cautious

• For housing, cheaper money arrived, just not fast enough

  

😊 What We Put on This Year

• 57,100+ words on housing, policy, and prices

• 53 newsletters, rain or shine

• Read over 400,000 times

💬 The 411’s Most Talked-About Story

Canada Says No to Indian Students
This piece unpacked Ottawa’s tougher stance on international students and the ripple effects for housing demand, rentals, and post-grad pathways. It was viewed over 1 million times and sparked more than 500 comments on Reddit and X.

👀 The 411’s Top Viewed Instagram Reel

First time a Canadian city declares a state of emergency to tackle homelessness
Barrie declaring a state of emergency made one thing clear: the housing crisis has spilled well beyond Toronto and Vancouver

—

Let's make 2026 count.

We started Urban 411 to make housing news less painful, and it's grown into a community we're truly grateful for.

In 2026, we're doubling down on what matters: better tools, smarter insights, and resources that help you win in real estate.

We appreciate you for sticking with us. Cheers to what's ahead!

-Teresa & Armin | Urban 411

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Cardinal Law

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

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Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
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📝 Landlords: $50K Fine if You Miss This Jan 1 Deadline

Source: Ontario.ca

The 411: Ontario is setting new carbon monoxide alarm requirements starting January 1, 2026, requiring property owners to install CO alarms on every storey of residential homes with fines up to $50,000 for individuals and $500,000 for corporations who don't comply.

• Ontario Fire Code is being updated to require more extensive carbon monoxide (CO) alarm installation in homes, effective January 1, 2026

• Property owners must install additional CO alarms on all storeys of residential homes and buildings, not just outside sleeping areas

• CO alarms are required in all residential buildings with fuel-burning appliances (gas furnace, hot water tank), attached garages, or fireplaces

• Carbon monoxide is odourless, colourless, and tasteless and alarms are the only way to detect it

• Penalties for non-compliance are significant: up to $50,000 for an individual's first offence, $500,000 for a corporation's first offence

Why This Matters: Policy changes like this directly affect homeowners and landlords, and staying on top of new requirements means avoiding hefty fines and, more importantly, keeping people safe. We track these shifts so you don't have to scramble when deadlines hit.

🧊 Toronto Moves to Regulate ‘Iceberg Homes’

Source: Toronto Star

The 411: Toronto wants to clamp down on “iceberg homes”, luxury houses with oversized, sometimes multi-storey basements. Officials say massive underground construction raises risks of flooding, tree damage, stormwater management issues, and carbon-intensive concrete use, and are proposing new below-ground setbacks and stricter landscaping rules.

• Toronto city staff want new limits on so-called “iceberg homes,” luxury houses with large, sometimes multi-storey basements.

• Iceberg homes allocate a significant portion of their total floor area underground, often to avoid height limits.

• These projects have raised concerns in neighbourhoods like Hoggs Hollow, the Bridle Path, and Forest Hill.

• Toronto currently does not restrict the number of basement levels or storeys that can be built below ground.

• Concerns being raised include increased flooding risk, disruption of groundwater and stormwater systems, reduced soil permeability, damage to mature trees, and reliance on carbon-intensive concrete.

• Staff are proposing minimum setback requirements for all low-rise buildings, excluding apartment buildings.

Why This Matters: Iceberg homes highlight gaps in Toronto’s zoning rules around below-ground construction. With no limits on basement depth or storeys, the city has limited oversight on how much floor space is built underground. New rules could affect how low-rise neighbourhoods evolve, how variance requests are handled, and how planning standards are applied as more complex builds become common.

😬 RECO Freezes Another Brokerage's Accounts

Source: RECO

The 411: RECO has frozen yet another brokerage's accounts. HomeLife Today Realty Ltd. is the latest in a troubling pattern of Ontario brokerages caught with trust fund shortfalls. This marks at least the third major trust account freeze RECO has issued in the past year alone.

• The Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) froze the trust and operating accounts of HomeLife Today Realty Ltd. after finding a "significant shortfall" of approximately $580,000.

• RECO identified the potential shortfall during a pre-inspection on November 28 and confirmed it during an onsite inspection on December 2.

• Agents owed commissions can submit claims under the commission protection insurance program (max $200,000 per individual, $4 million aggregate)

• Despite the freeze, the brokerage remains open and the broker of record will ensure orderly closure of transactions.

• Agents owed commissions can submit claims under the commission protection insurance program (max $200,000 per individual, $4 million aggregate).

Why This Matters: RECO is working overtime to prove it can still protect consumers after the iPro disaster exposed serious cracks in how the regulator handles trust fund theft. The $580,000 shortfall at HomeLife is relatively small compared to iPro's $10 million scandal, but the quick freeze shows RECO is trying to rebuild credibility.

🎰 Should Ontario Build Mega Casinos in Niagara Falls?

Source: Renx

The 411: The Ford government is floating a long-term vision to transform Niagara Falls into a large-scale entertainment hub with more casinos, billion-dollar hotels, theme parks, and major attractions. The strategy leans on private investment from casino operators, paired with public infrastructure upgrades.

• Premier Doug Ford launched a plan dubbed internally "Vegas of the North" to revitalize Niagara Falls with more casinos and theme parks

• Ford is calling on casino operators: "Come and put a proposal in. Come and tell us how you're going to build a billion-dollar hotel with attractions, with cinemas inside, with live theatre"

• Ford wants to "double the number of visitors who come to Niagara every year" and "double the amount of time they spend in Niagara"

• Infrastructure improvements like expanding the QEW, twinning the Garden City Skyway, and increasing GO train service will support the plan

• The 44-page strategy envisions a 3.8-kilometre tram through Queen Victoria Park, a new observation wheel, and redevelopment of Niagara Parks Marina

Why This Matters: Niagara does need reinvestment to stay competitive as global tourism evolves, but this plan raises a bigger question: what kind of destination should Niagara become? Cities that thrive long-term tend to diversify into culture, food, public spaces, wellness, and year-round experiences. How Ontario chooses to modernize Niagara will shape not just visitor numbers, but the region’s identity, livability, and economic stability for decades.

🤒 Sick Days Jump 14% After Office Return

Source: Ottawa Citizen

The 411: A new report found that federal public servants took nearly 14% more sick days in September 2024 compared to the same month last year, right as Ottawa’s three-day in-office mandate kicked in.

• Public servants in the core public administration took almost 14% more sick days in September 2024 compared to September 2023

• Sick days jumped to 238,668 in September 2024 from 209,395 the previous year

• September 2024 was when Treasury Board's new three-day in-office policy came into effect

• Average sick days per employee annually rose from 5.9 days in 2020-21 (full remote) to 9.2 days in 2023-24

• Public service unions and employees reacted with outrage to the three-day mandate, holding rallies and launching a court challenge

Why It Matters: The spike in sick days raises an uncomfortable question: are people genuinely getting sicker from commuting and shared office spaces, or are they just finding ways to avoid a mandate they never wanted? Taxpayers are paying for empty desks, and if the government pushes a full five-day return, will these numbers get worse?

🤔 WTF of the Week

The rate on the website isn’t the rate you get. Big banks advertise one number, then quietly offer something very different sometimes more than 2% lower. If you’re not shopping around, you’re probably overpaying.

🛠 Our Trusted Providers

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Cardinal Law

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Not sure if your corp, holdco, or JV actually protects you from the CRA or lawsuits? Cardinal Law ensures your legal framework is built for growth and protection. Our subscribers get a FREE Corporate Structure Review (a $500–$1,000 value).
👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

LandingLift

Elevate your real estate listings with affordable, done-for-you landing pages.
LandingLift creates stunning, fully customized websites that turn your listings into powerful sales tools. Utilizing AI-powered content and expert design, they deliver high-quality landing pages optimized for both SEO and mobile devices.
👉 Get 40% off your first order

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
👋 Follow us on Instagram for daily news bites!

🧐 What is the Mayor of Brampton Doing?

Source: Toronto Star & Brampton Guardian 

The 411: Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown quietly bought two downtown buildings in an area set for major city-funded revitalization and a future LRT stop. He won't share integrity commissioner correspondence about the deal, and he's now pushing to kill the city's landlord licence fee permanently.

• A numbered company owned by Mayor Patrick Brown and his wife quietly bought two downtown Brampton buildings for $1.45M.

• The properties sit in the Four Corners area, ground zero for a long-term city-funded revitalization and future LRT stop.

• Tenants say residential renters were paid to move out and commercial tenants were asked to sign NDAs.

• He says he has routinely checked with the integrity commissioner but won’t share any correspondence.

• The commissioner refuses to confirm or deny what guidance she gave him.

• Municipal rules don't require municipal politicians to reveal business and property holdings (unlike provincial/federal politicians)

• At the same time he’s is pushing to permanently kill the city’s $300 landlord licence fee.

• City staff planned to reinstate the fee in 2027 to help pay for the program, but Brown says he won’t allow it in any future budget.

Why This Matters: When political leaders hold real estate while writing the rules for everyone else, the line between public duty and private gain gets thin fast.. Even if no rule is technically broken, the perception of advantage can erode trust in how decisions get made. And when a mayor pushes to scrap landlord fees right after a major property purchase comes to light, it naturally raises the question: is this about policy, or about shifting attention away from the deal?

🤑 Toronto Proposes New Real Estate Wealth Tax

Source: CBC

The 411: Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow is proposing higher land transfer taxes on homes over $3M with rates scaling up based on price. The move targets the top 2% of buyers and would generate an extra $13.8M annually to fund affordability programs.

• Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow wants buyers of homes over $3M to pay higher land transfer taxes starting in 2026.

• The proposal raises an extra $13.8M next year, bringing total luxury tax revenue to about $152M.

• Chow says the money will help fund affordability measures like school meal programs and a TTC fare freeze.

• Rates rise with price: homes over $20M would see an 8.6% tax, while $3M–$4M homes jump to 4.4%.

• About 1,164 sales in 2024 would have been hit by the higher rates.

• The city says the move targets only the top 2% of buyers and protects core services in a tight 2026 budget.

Why This Matters: A $3M home in Toronto isn't a ultra-luxury estate. It's often an upper-middle class family trying not to leave the city. Piling higher taxes on this group accelerates the brain drain as high earners and taxpayers leave for lower-tax suburbs or provinces, taking their tax revenue with them. Toronto has a spending problem, not a revenue problem, and it's asking the middle class to cover the bill.

🏗️ The Real Math Behind Ottawa’s Housing Promise

Source: Parliamentary Budget Officer

The 411: Ottawa's new Build Canada Homes (BCH) initiative promises a major housing push, but the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) reveals total federal housing spending will actually drop sharply by 2028–29. BCH will add only 26,000 units over five years, with only a fraction affordable for low-income households.

• Ottawa says it’s rolling out a major housing push, but the PBO shows total federal housing spending will drop 56% by 2028–29.

• BCH is promoted as the engine to “double” housing construction, but it will add only 26,000 units over five years.

• Only 13,000 of those units will be affordable for low-income households, while key affordability supports like the Canada Housing Benefit are ending.

• Build Canada Homes gets $7.3B in spending ($13B with loans), but it sits inside a much larger wave of cuts and expired affordability programs.

• BCH’s direct builds include mostly market units: 60% market rent, 20% for median-income households, and only 20% with deeper affordability.

• Factory-built homes and bulk procurement help, but not enough to close the 690,000-unit housing gap projected for 2035.

Why This Matters: The math suggests Ottawa can’t hit its housing targets, regardless of new agencies or branding. Build Canada Homes feels like a political “movement” wrapped as a housing plan, but it adds very little supply and doesn’t replace what CMHC does.

📦 Calgary Becomes a Logistics Giant

Source: Calgary Herald

The 411: Calgary has become Canada's second-hottest industrial real estate market after Toronto, with nearly half its demand coming from massive warehouse facilities. The city is now planning a new 600-acre industrial park in the southeast to keep up with surging demand.

• Calgary has become one of Canada’s hottest hubs for industrial real estate, now second only to Toronto in demand for big-box warehouse space.

• Almost half of Calgary’s industrial demand (43%) is for massive facilities, outpacing even Vancouver and Montreal.

• Retail giants like Amazon, Walmart, Loblaws, Safeway, and Dollarama are snapping up land for distribution centres serving all of Western Canada.

• Balzac, just outside Calgary, is the fastest-growing industrial submarket in Canada thanks to lower taxes and cheaper land.

• Calgary has set aside land for a new 600-acre industrial park in the southeast, though it lacks Balzac’s proximity to the airport.

Why It Matters: Most of the everyday things people order now pass through Calgary-area warehouses, so how this region develops directly affects delivery times, jobs, traffic, and the shape of surrounding communities. That means more pressure on suburban homes, tighter rental markets in nearby towns.

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🏢 Big Tech Moves Back In to The Office

Source: Renx

The 411: Tech firms are reclaiming downtown Toronto office space leasing this year with major deals with Toronto's tech companies. Trophy towers near Union Station are nearly full at just 3.5% vacancy, showing companies want premium transit-connected space to lure talent back to the office.

• Tech firms are taking more space downtown again, rising from 10% of all leasing last year to 15% this year, second only to finance at 46%.

• Toronto remains North America’s No. 3 tech market, with 334,200 tech workers up nearly 15% since 2021.

• Major Tech Lease Deals in Downtown Toronto

  1. Lyft — 90,000 sq. ft. at First Canadian Place (100 King St. W.)

  2. WeWork — 67,000 sq. ft. at TD North Tower (77 King St. W.)

  3. WeWork — additional 16,500 sq. ft. at One U (1 University Ave.)

  4. Salesforce — 150,000 sq. ft. at WaterPark Place (10 Bay St.)

  5. Element Fleet Management — 74,000 sq. ft. at 1 Adelaide St. E.

  6. Softchoice — 62,000 sq. ft. at 1 Adelaide St. E.

  7. Robinhood — 60,000 sq. ft. at 25 York St.

  8. Nvidia — 32,000 sq. ft. at Portland Commons (530 Front St. W.)

  9. Clio — 28,000 sq. ft. at 25 York St.

• Downtown office vacancy sits at 15.5%, but trophy towers near Union Station are almost full at 3.5% vacancy.

Why This Matters: The concentration of leasing activity near Union Station, shows companies want trophy spaces in transit-connected locations to attract talent back to the office. This influx of high-paying tech workers downtown also has ripple effects on retail, restaurants, and the broader urban economy.

🤔 WTF of the Week

Yikes… these are the folks who were scooping up pre-con units like candy and helping pump the market. When everything was going up, it felt easy, now the downside finally hits and it’s suddenly outrage at the builder for just enforcing the contract.

This is the exact speculation risk everyone warned about. Tough spot, but not exactly shocking.

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Cardinal Law

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👉 Learn More About Cardinal Law

Atena Construction Group

Turn your backyard into an income stream & increase your property value
With over 30 years of experience in the GTA, Atena Construction specializes in building laneway and garden suites—helping homeowners unlock new income streams and boost their property's value. 👉 Learn More About Atena Construction

Zown

Empowering Canadian home buyers with innovative solutions.
Zown is reshaping the home-buying journey with offering 1.5% cash back on purchases. Their growing realtor network also enables licensed agents to unlock additional income while providing unmatched value to homebuyers.
👉 See Zown’s Offering

LandingLift

Elevate your real estate listings with affordable, done-for-you landing pages.
LandingLift creates stunning, fully customized websites that turn your listings into powerful sales tools. Utilizing AI-powered content and expert design, they deliver high-quality landing pages optimized for both SEO and mobile devices.
👉 Get 40% off your first order

👉 Missed last week's 411? View it here​
👋 Follow us on Instagram for daily news bites!

☠️ 3 Dead in Illegal Brampton Rooming House

Source: The Star

The 411: A fatal fire at a Brampton operating as an illegal multi-unit rental has left three people dead and several others critically injured. In response, city officials are calling to expand Brampton’s Residential Rental Licensing (RRL) program citywide.

• A massive fire at an illegal multi-unit rental in Brampton killed 3 people and critically injured several others.

• 11 people were living inside the home, 9 in a multi-generational family upstairs and 2 in an illegal basement unit.

• The house had years of safety complaints, but bylaw officers couldn’t enter because the landlord repeatedly refused inspections.

• The landlord is described as an absentee owner who spends long periods outside Canada.

• The owner once applied to legalize a second suite but failed to complete the required safety inspections.

• The city’s Residential Rental Licensing (RRL) pilot allows surprise inspections without owner permissions, but this home wasn’t in the pilot zone.

Why This Matters: This is exactly what happens when housing affordability collides with weak enforcement: desperate tenants, overcrowded “slum” rentals, and preventable deaths.

💸 Brokerages Quietly Pocketing Deposit Interest

Source: The Globe and Mail

The 411: Ontario brokerages are pocketing interest earned on buyer deposits held in trust. By law, that interest belongs to the buyer, but most brokerages add clauses with high payout thresholds or admin fees that make it nearly impossible to collect. Many realtors don't even know their own brokerage is doing this.

• By law, interest should belong to the buyer unless the contract says otherwise brokerages are quietly adding clauses (Schedule B) that let them keep it.

• Some big brokerages only pay interest above certain thresholds ($200, $350, even $750), and/or charge admin fees of $100–$500 to release it, making it nearly impossible for consumers to get their money back.

• Ontario is one of the only provinces where brokerages are allowed to keep this interest.

• Other provinces (like B.C.) divert trust interest to public funds, not private brokerage profit.

Why This Matters: This isn't just about a few dollars in interest, it's about trust. If brokerages are quietly profiting off buyer deposits through fine print that even agents don't read, it erodes confidence in the entire transaction process. With RECO already under fire and consumer protection under scrutiny, practices like this make the whole industry look bad.

👷🏻Canada’s Construction Crisis Is About to Get Worse

Source: The Conference Board of Canada

The 411: Canada’s construction industry is running out of skilled workers just as housing demand, climate-driven repairs, and retirements surge. Job vacancies have been rising for years and are expected to worsen, pushing up renovation costs, slowing homebuilding, and adding billions to household expenses by 2045

• Canada has had a growing construction labour shortage since 2017, with skilled-trade vacancies rising 11% per year.

• Shortages are projected to worsen sharply, growing 13% annually from 2026–2045, putting even more pressure on construction timelines and costs.

• Labour shortages alone are expected to add 0.2% to annual inflation in the residential construction sector over the next 20 years.

• By 2045, this will cost Canadians $7.9 billion more every year in home repairs and renovations.

• Without intervention, skilled-labour shortages in homebuilding could reach 32,000 workers by 2045, raising construction costs by 2.3%.

Why This Matters: You can’t solve a housing shortage if you don’t have the people to build the housing. Canada’s labour gap is quietly inflating construction costs and will make homes even more expensive to build, buy, and maintain for decades.

🚇 Transit Riders Can't Afford Transit Housing

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Transit revenue is back to pre-pandemic levels, but ridership is still down 18% despite Canada adding 3.85 million people since 2019. The reason? The transit premium pushed housing prices so high near stations that the people who actually rely on transit got priced out and moved to car-dependent suburbs

• Transit revenue hit $352.8M in Sep 2025, back near 2019 levels, but riders are still down 18% from pre-pandemic.

• Canada added 3.85M people since 2019, yet monthly transit trips are still 29M below pre-pandemic levels.

• Transit premiums pushed prices so high that core riders fled to cheaper, car-heavy suburbs.

• Higher-income households now dominate transit-adjacent housing, but they’re not core transit users.

• TVM logic flips for wealthier buyer; their time is too valuable for slow commutes, even with good transit.

• Shrinking ridership points to a triple-cycle turn: cyclical, secular, and long-wave cycles all nearing their end.

  

Why This Matters: The transit premium drove housing prices so high near stations that the people who depend on transit can’t afford to live there anymore. They move farther out, often to car-dependent suburbs. The buyers who can afford those premium locations don’t rely on transit, so ridership falls. The housing market priced out the core users that justified the transit premium in the first place.

⚖️ Ontario Seizes RECO After iPro Collapse

Source: CBC

The 411: Ontario is taking over RECO after the regulator failed to act quickly on a $10M trust fund shortfall at iPro Realty, prompting a collapse in public confidence. An external administrator will now oversee RECO as the province pushes for reforms and tighter consumer protection.

Key changes:

• Ontario government has appointed an external administrator (Jean Lépine) to take over the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) starting Dec. 1.

• Minister Stephen Crawford says public confidence collapsed, with consumers, realtors, and brokers expressing concerns.

• RECO says it has begun reforms and will work with the province and the administrator to rebuild trust.

• The Greenbelt scandal context continues to pressure the Ford government to show strong action on governance and oversight.

• RECO has adopted a new organizational structure following the audit’s cultural and operational concerns.

Why It Matters: This is one of the most significant shake-ups in Ontario real estate oversight in decades, raising concerns about how well trust funds are monitored and whether consumers are truly protected. It also signals that the province is willing to intervene when regulators fail.

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🔥Jasper Rebuilds With New Fire-Resistant Rules

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Jasper is rebuilding fast after wildfires destroyed one-third of the town and 33,000 hectares of forest but with new rules.

• The town overhauled its building rules to require FireSmart construction which require only non-combustible exterior materials like stone, stucco, metal, and fibre-cement (no more cedar siding).

• New rules also ban flammable landscaping and structures within 1.5 metres of any building, including wood decks, fences, and bushes like juniper and pine.

• Fire-safe building now costs more (e.g., decks jumped from ~$3,000 to ~$13,000), but most residents accept the cost after losing homes.

• Only new construction must follow these rules, leaving two-thirds of Jasper still full of older combustible roofs, siding, and landscaping.

• FireSmart is voluntary for existing homes, and experts warn that community safety depends on full participation, which isn’t happening.

• Banff is taking similar steps, requiring Class A fire-resistant roofs and siding; additional FireSmart rules may soon be mandatory.

Why This Matters: Fire safety shouldn’t be optional, not when homes, entire neighbourhoods, and even insurance markets in fire-prone regions depend on it. Voluntary upgrades leave dangerous gaps that put whole communities at risk. And as fire-resistant construction becomes the new standard, homeowners who can’t afford costly retrofits risk being left behind.

🤔 WTF of the Week

Government jobs are growing faster than the private sector everywhere except Manitoba and in some provinces, 2–3× faster.

In Newfoundland & Labrador, the private sector didn’t just slow down… it shrank while government hiring kept rising.

Here’s the problem in one line:

➡️ More people paid by taxpayers, fewer people generating the taxes.

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