Urban 411

Bye Bye Realtors.

Wed, 05 Aug 2026 15:00:00 +0000

👋 Thousands Of Realtors Exit

The 411: Canada's housing slowdown is forcing thousands of realtors out of the business as fewer homes sell and commissions dry up.

Canadian home sales are down 30% from their 2021 peak.
CREA membership has fallen to 155,980, down from a record 164,598 in 2023.
TRREB membership dropped from nearly 75,700 in late 2023 to about 66,700 today.
Ontario had 84,798 licensed realtors at the end of 2025, the first annual decline in at least eight years.
The number of new Ontario realtors has fallen 24% year over year and is down by more than half from its 2022 peak.
One pre-construction brokerage saw condo sales fall from 3,000 units a year to just 800, cutting its workforce from 150 employees to 50.
Realtors say annual licensing, insurance, and board fees can range from $4,000 to $7,000, making it difficult to stay in the business during a slow market.

Why This Matters: Canada probably had too many realtors to begin with. During the boom, everyone’s aunt, uncle, and high school friend seemed to get licensed. Now that sales are down, the industry is finally thinning out, and only agents with real clients, lower costs, or a stronger niche are likely to stick around.

💰 Another Fund Buying Toronto Condos

Source: Toronto Life

The 411: BST Canada has acquired three Toronto apartment towers with 487 rental units and says it wants to keep buying.

BST Canada bought three high-rise rental buildings in Toronto.
The portfolio includes 487 apartment units.
The company says the properties are in established, transit-oriented neighbourhoods.
BST did not disclose the building locations or purchase price.
The acquisition expands its growing Ontario multifamily portfolio.
BST is still looking for apartment properties with more than 100 units.
The company is backed by institutional investment partners.
Large investors are increasingly targeting Toronto rental buildings and unsold condo inventory.

Why This Matters: As the condo market slows, institutional investors are stepping in to buy rental buildings instead. It's a familiar pattern: when markets weaken, the biggest players with the deepest pockets often find the best buying opportunities

🏘️ Alberta Gets $510M For Housing

Source: Prime Minister of Canada

The 411: Ottawa and Alberta have signed a new infrastructure agreement aimed at removing one of the biggest barriers to homebuilding: water, wastewater, and other municipal infrastructure.

The federal government will invest more than $510 million over eight years through the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund (CHIF).
Alberta aims to support 25,000 additional affordable homes by 2031.
The province will cover at least one-third of eligible municipal project costs.
At least $100 million will go toward projects in rural and Indigenous communities.
Funding will support water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste infrastructure needed to unlock new housing.
The agreement is part of Ottawa's broader housing strategy to speed up homebuilding across Canada.

Why This Matters: his is becoming a trend across Canada. Instead of asking municipalities to pay for growth on their own, governments are stepping in to fund the infrastructure needed to unlock housing. The biggest obstacle to building homes isn't always the land.

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🍼 Canada Has A Baby Problem

Source: The Star

The 411: New research suggests immigrants are having fewer children after arriving in Canada, challenging the idea that immigration alone can offset the country's aging population.

The fertility gap between immigrants and Canadian-born women has narrowed from 0.24 births in 2001 to 0.11 births in 2021.
Researchers expect that gap could disappear in the 2026 Census.
First-generation immigrants have the highest fertility rates, but those who arrived as children (the 1.5 generation) have even lower birth rates than Canadian-born Canadians.
Family-class immigrants have the highest fertility rates, followed by refugees, while economic immigrants have the lowest among permanent residents.
Temporary residents have the lowest fertility rate of all immigrant groups at 0.96.
Across nearly all of Canada's top source countries, immigrant birth rates are now below the 2.1 replacement rate.

Why This Matters: For years, immigration was viewed as one way to help offset Canada's aging population. This research suggests it's not that simple. Once people settle here, they face the same housing costs, childcare expenses, and affordability challenges as everyone else, leading many to have smaller families.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

The number of bank and power of sale listings in the GTA has gone vertical. Up 69% from last year and more than 11 times higher than in 2023.

Apparently “just hold on until rates fall” was not a financial plan.

Jon Flynn - Twitter

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Canada Is Losing A Lot of Farmland

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 16:01:54 +0000

🌾 Billionaires Are Buying B.C. Farmland

Source: The Tyee, BC Green Party

The 411: A small B.C. farming community is calling for tougher foreign ownership rules after U.S. billionaires quietly bought up large amounts of local farmland.

Since 2008, a company owned by two U.S. billionaires has purchased 25 properties in Dunster, B.C.
The portfolio now totals about 3,500 acres, with 16 homes sitting vacant.
Dunster's population has fallen from 350 to 240, with residents saying empty homes are hollowing out the community.
Locals estimate the company now owns about one-quarter of the community's land.
The BC Greens say similar concerns are emerging in Kamloops, Merritt, and Pemberton.
The release claims billionaire Stan Kroenke controls 1.2 million acres of B.C. farmland.
Nearly all of the properties are located within B.C.'s Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR).
Unlike many other provinces, British Columbia has no restrictions on foreign ownership of agricultural land.

Why This Matters: The debate goes beyond one small town. As farmland becomes an investment asset, communities worry about rising land prices, fewer local farmers, and vacant properties replacing active neighbourhoods. The case is also renewing questions about whether Canada should place tighter limits on foreign ownership of agricultural land.

📚 More To Read

Who Owns Canada's Farmland?
This deep dive explores how investment funds and institutional investors are reshaping farmland ownership across Canada.

👨‍🌾 Farms Are Losing To Development

Source: CBC

The 411: Canada has lost millions of hectares of farmland as urban expansion, rising land prices, and an aging farm population make it harder to keep land in food production.

Canadian farms reported a 3.2% drop in total farm area between 2016 and 2021, equal to more than two million hectares.
Since 2001, Canada has lost more than five million hectares of farmland, roughly the size of Nova Scotia.
Ontario is losing an estimated 319 acres of farmland every day.
Urban growth around cities like Toronto, Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg is converting productive farmland into housing, factories, and retail.
Canadian farmland values have climbed 43% since 2021, from $3,947 to $5,643 per acre.
Some farmland near Toronto now sells for $100,000 per acre, making ownership unrealistic for many new farmers.
Canada has fewer than 23,000 young farm operators, while the average farmer is now 56 years old.

Why This Matters: These two stories tell the same story from different angles. One asks who owns Canada's farmland. The other asks whether we'll have enough of it left.

🤔 Should Canadian Cities Welcome Data Centres?

Source: CBC, Global News, Yahoo News

The 411: Cities across Canada are debating how to regulate AI data centre's as developers race to build the infrastructure needed to power artificial intelligence.

Municipalities across Canada are reviewing or pausing new AI data centre projects while they study their environmental and economic impacts.
Mississauga and Rocky View County approved temporary moratoriums, while Hamilton rejected one to avoid discouraging investment.
Toronto is reviewing proposed projects in Etobicoke and Scarborough after residents raised concerns over electricity use, water consumption, noise, and community consultation.
Saskatoon has launched its own review before creating a strategy for future AI data centres.
Alberta has become Canada's data centre hotspot, accounting for 92% of planned new data centre capacity, according to York University researchers.
Saskatchewan is also attracting major projects, including Bell Canada's AI data centre.

Why This Matters: AI is creating a new infrastructure race across Canada, but these facilities consume massive amounts of electricity and water. Cities are trying to balance economic growth and tech investment with concerns about local infrastructure, environmental impacts, and whether communities will benefit. The debate is quickly shifting from whether Canada should build AI data centres to where and under what rules.

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💰 Land Got Too Expensive

Source: The Frankfort Report

The 411: A Toronto development site bought for $5.8 million in 2018 was resold for $68 million a year later without any construction. The project is now in receivership after accumulating more than $80 million in debt.

The site increased in value from $5.8 million to $68 million in just one year before construction even began.
The project spent years in the planning process while carrying a land value based on future expectations.
When the lender forced a sale, 77 parties reviewed the opportunity but no bids were submitted.
The lender ultimately took back the property because the outstanding debt exceeded its market value.
Developers often rely on rising land values and refinancing rather than completed projects to fund new acquisitions.

Why This Matters: The author is not watching from the sidelines. He is a developer who has bought, sold, and worked inside this exact system. His warning is that too many deals were built on rising land values and future refinancing, not on whether the homes could actually get built. When that model breaks, investors lose money, lenders take back the land, and the city loses the housing that was supposed to come next.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Ontario’s builders are making their priorities pretty clear. Rentals are surging, condo construction is rolling over, and single-family homes are barely hanging on.

The province is still building housing, just not much of the kind buyers traditionally wanted to own or can own.

Ron Butler

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Is Canada In Trouble?

Thu, 23 Jul 2026 14:54:31 +0000

😬 Is Canada In Trouble?

Source: BMO Economics

The 411: After record population growth in 2023–24, Canada has swung to virtually zero population growth. Economists say the shift is cooling housing and inflation, but it will also weigh on long-term economic growth.

Growth in potential consumers dropped from more than 3% to roughly 0% in just two years.
Labour force growth has slowed from nearly 4% in late 2023 to almost flat today.
Canada's youth unemployment rate climbed to 14.5%, the highest non-pandemic level since 2010.
The ratio of unemployed workers to job vacancies has jumped from roughly 1:1 in 2022 to more than 3:1 today.
Net non-permanent resident outflows exceeded 460,000 over the past year as Ottawa reduced temporary resident targets.
Canada has more than 180,000 purpose-built rental units under construction, the first time rental projects outnumber ownership housing.
Average asking rents have already fallen, with market rents down 4.7% year over year in May.
Rent inflation in the CPI has slowed to 3.5%, down from a peak of 9.0% in 2024.

Why This Matters: Slower population growth is easing pressure on rents and housing demand, but it is also weakening the labour market and economic growth. Rising youth unemployment and fewer job openings suggest the slowdown is spreading beyond housing. Canada may be getting more affordable, but at the cost of weaker momentum.

👀 Foreign Buyer Ban Has A Loophole

Source: South China Morning Post

The 411: Canada's foreign buyer ban doesn't apply to permanent residents, and new estimates suggest Chinese immigrants remain a significant force in the housing market.

Canada has banned most foreign homebuyers until 2027, but permanent residents are exempt.
China was Canada's 4th-largest source of new permanent residents in 2025, with 21,115 arrivals.
It’s estimated Chinese permanent residents may have purchased up to C$5.7B worth of homes in 2025.
The estimate assumes 40% of new Chinese permanent residents bought a home.
Canada's average home price was approximately $677,000 in 2025.
Residential real estate supported 1.2 million jobs and generated $152 billion in GDP last year.

Why This Matters: The foreign buyer ban doesn't apply to permanent residents, meaning immigration continues to influence housing demand even with the ban in place. It also highlights how difficult it is to separate immigration policy from housing policy.

🔥 Broker Burned Rival's Office

Source: The Walrus

The 411: A former Quebec real estate executive orchestrated a years-long arson campaign against a rival brokerage after a business dispute.

Christophe Folla co-founded Sutton Québec, one of the province's largest real estate brokerages.
After a top broker left for a competing firm in 2017, Folla admitted he became consumed by revenge.
Prosecutors say he paid $120,000 to co-conspirators over a seven-year campaign.
The attacks caused roughly $6 million in property damage.
One of the targets was a RE/MAX office in Saint-Sauveur that was destroyed in a 2021 fire.
Folla later told a Quebec parole board he developed an "unfathomable desire for vengeance" after his rival tried to recruit his agents.

Why This Matters: Toronto is still attracting newcomers from around the world, but it's increasingly losing existing residents to other parts of Canada. The data highlights how housing costs and affordability continue to shape where Canadians choose to live.

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🛒 Ottawa Goes Condo Shopping

Source: The Star

The 411: Governments are buying unsold condos and converting them into affordable rentals, but experts say it could also help stabilize struggling condo markets.

B.C. will spend $1.45B to acquire 2,200 unsold condos for affordable housing.
Ontario backed a $1.3B fund to purchase blocks of unsold GTA condos for long-term rentals.
The GTA had a record 4,295 newly completed unsold condos in Q1 2026, more than double a year earlier.
Buying completed condos is often cheaper and faster than building new affordable housing from scratch.
Some owners worry affordable rental conversions could affect property values, while others argue filling empty buildings benefits everyone.

Why This Matters: Temporary rent hikes can quietly become permanent if no one challenges them. This ruling reinforces that tenants have the right to question whether their rent is being calculated correctly.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

The condo market isn't just slowing... it's delayed. Sales collapsed first, and condo starts followed about 18 months later.

That's why supply keeps showing up even after demand disappears.

Ron Butler

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Ottawa Rethinks Foreign Buyers

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:58:46 +0000

🤔 Are Foreign Buyers Coming Back?

Source: Borden Ladner Gervais (BLG)

The 411: Canada's foreign buyer ban expires in 2027, and the federal government is signaling it may replace the blanket ban with targeted exemptions instead of extending it.

The foreign buyer ban is set to expire at the end of 2026, with changes expected in 2027.
Before the ban, foreign buyers accounted for just 1.1% of home sales in B.C. in 2021.
Despite the ban, average Canadian home prices still rose more than 20% between 2021 and 2026.
Ottawa is considering a model similar to Australia's, allowing foreign investment in new construction, redevelopment projects, and vacant land.
Canada already allows some exemptions for vacant land, redevelopment projects, and certain publicly traded Canadian companies.
CMHC estimates Canada needs to build 380,000 to 430,000 homes per year through 2035 to meet demand.

Why This Matters: The discussion is moving beyond whether foreign buyers should be banned and toward where foreign investment could support housing construction. The next version of the policy may look very different from the current one.

📝 RECO Expands Realtor Training

Source: RECO

The 411: Ontario's real estate regulator has launched a new insurance training course as part of broader reforms following the collapse of iPro Realty.

RECO has introduced a new continuing education course focused on professional liability insurance and consumer protection.
The course covers Errors & Omissions, Commission Protection, and Consumer Deposit insurance.
Every Ontario real estate professional is legally required to carry professional liability insurance.
The launch follows the iPro Realty collapse, where trust funds meant for client deposits and agent commissions were allegedly diverted.
RECO paid roughly $5 million in consumer deposit claims and later approved 100% of eligible commission protection claims.
Starting October 1, 2026, Ontario brokerages must file annual financial reports, with monthly trust reconciliation reporting planned for 2027.
The new course also introduces mandatory testing as RECO modernizes its continuing education program.

Why This Matters: While most buyers will never need to use RECO's insurance program, it's an important safeguard when transactions go wrong. The new course is part of the regulator's ongoing effort to strengthen consumer protection and improve industry standards

🚚 People Are Leaving Toronto

Source: Toronto TMU

The 411: Toronto went from North America's fastest-growing metro to near the bottom of the rankings as more Canadians moved away.

Toronto fell from 1st to 412th out of 435 metropolitan areas in Canada and the U.S. for population growth.
The ranking compares population growth over the 12 months ending July 1, 2025.
Toronto still ranked 5th in North America for international migration.
But those gains were offset by negative domestic migration, with more people leaving the GTA for other parts of Canada than moving in.
Calgary and Edmonton were the only Canadian cities to crack the top 10 for population growth.
Researchers say lower immigration played a role, but domestic out-migration was a major reason for Toronto's decline.
The report suggests housing affordability is pushing more residents to lower-cost regions.

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🧑‍⚖️ Renters Win Against CAPREIT

Source: The Star

The 411: A court ruled CAPREIT overcharged Toronto tenants by keeping a temporary rent increase in place longer than allowed.

CAPREIT lost its appeal against 16 tenants at a 427-unit building on Wellesley Street East.
The landlord received approval for an 8.3% above-guideline rent increase (AGI) in 2013 to pay for building upgrades.
The increase was approved for 10 years and was supposed to expire in 2023.
Instead, CAPREIT only removed 2.5% of the increase rather than the full 8.3%.
Ontario's Divisional Court ruled the entire increase should have been removed after 10 years.
CAPREIT was ordered to pay $5,000 in legal costs.
Tenant advocates say many Ontario renters may still be paying expired AGIs without realizing they're temporary.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada has 218,000 rental units under construction. That's... a lot. Developers have gone all-in on rentals while condo projects dry up.

The question is whether all that new supply will finally slow rent growth.

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Secret Condo Discounts

Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:06:04 +0000

🤫 Developers Hide Condo Discounts

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Condo developers are offering deep discounts to buyers, but only if they agree not to tell anyone

Some developers are offering discounts of up to $700 per square foot in exchange for signing non-disclosure agreements (NDAs).
One GTA condo recently sold for $75,000 below its original purchase price under a confidential agreement.
Developers use NDAs to prevent discounted sale prices from becoming public and lowering the value of other units.
Builders are also offering other incentives, including financing, to help struggling buyers close deals.
Industry experts say this is the first time they've seen confidentiality agreements used this widely during secret shopper research.
Some developers are also keeping available inventory off public listings, creating what one research firm calls "shadow inventory."
Buyers are being warned that advertised condo prices may not reflect what units are actually selling for.

Why This Matters: If developers are quietly offering six-figure discounts, there are probably deals you won't find online. It might be worth walking into a sales centre instead of browsing listing sites.

😬 The Biggest Correction Ever

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada's housing correction is now the largest on record after inflation, with home prices continuing to slide from their 2022 peak.

Canadian home prices fell another 0.8% in Q1 2026 and are 4.8% lower than a year ago.
Since peaking in Q1 2022, national home prices have dropped 20.1%, erasing gains back to early 2021.
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), this is now the largest national housing correction in Canadian history.
By comparison, the early 1990s housing downturn saw prices fall 9.4%, while the 2008 correction peaked at 8.8%.
After adjusting for inflation, Canadian home prices have fallen all the way back to 2016 levels.
While Toronto has experienced larger local declines, this is the deepest nationwide correction on record

Why This Matters: Housing corrections aren't unusual, but the size of this one is. While prices remain historically high in dollar terms, inflation has significantly eroded real home values. It also shows just how extraordinary Canada's pandemic housing boom was: the bigger the run-up, the bigger the reset.

💲 Buyers Get Cash Back

Source: The Star

The 411: As Toronto's housing market slows, more realtors are giving buyers part of their commission back to win business.

Cashback realtors return a portion of their commission to buyers after a home purchase.
A typical buyer's agent earns about 2.5% of the sale price, with some agents giving back as much as 1.75%.
On a $1 million home, that could mean roughly $17,500 back to the buyer.
Realtors say demand for cashback services has risen sharply over the past year.
Toronto home sales hit a 25-year low last year, leaving more agents competing for fewer buyers.
Some brokerages now offer buyers cashback before closing to help cover closing costs.

Why This Matters: The balance of power has been shifting toward buyers. When realtors start cutting their own commissions to win clients, it's a sign competition has intensified and buyers have more negotiating leverage than they've had in years. If you're buying a home, it may be worth asking what incentives your realtor is willing to offer.

❌ Toronto Slashes Development Charges

Source: Desjardins

The 411: Toronto is cutting development charges by up to 60% as a new report shows Ontario municipalities are sitting on more than $10.5 billion in unused development charge reserves.

Ontario municipalities held roughly $10.5 billion in development charge (DC) reserves at the end of 2024.
Development charges on a single-detached home in Toronto now exceed $137,000.
Over the past two decades, Ontario development charges have increased by roughly 500%.
By comparison, construction wages rose 70% and inflation increased 55% over the same period.
CMHC estimates eliminating development charges in Toronto and Vancouver could make roughly 10% more housing projects financially viable.
Toronto will reduce development charges by 40% to 60% over the next three years.
The cuts are backed by a $1.5 billion Canada–Ontario infrastructure agreement to help fund growth-related infrastructure.

Why This Matters: Development charges have become one of the biggest costs of building new housing. Governments are now admitting those fees may have gone too far, making projects harder to build even while municipalities accumulated billions in reserves. If more cities follow Toronto's lead, it could help get more housing projects off the ground.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

This Oshawa condo sold for $550K in 2022 and just resold for $195K. That’s a 65% drop in four years, or roughly $355K gone. Forget a correction, that’s a housing market faceplant.

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Is The HST Rebate Working?

Thu, 02 Jul 2026 14:35:50 +0000

🤔 Is The HST Rebate Working?

Source: CBC

The 411: Ontario’s HST rebate gave GTA new home sales a noticeable boost in month one, but almost all the momentum came from single-family homes, not condos.The federal government is investing more than $5 billion in B.C. infrastructure over the next 10 years.

GTA new home sales jumped to 1,100 units in April, nearly triple last year’s 384 sales.
Single-family home sales surged to 901 units, up sharply from just 241 a year ago.
Condo sales rose only modestly to 199 units, compared with 143 last year.
Single-family sales are now above the 10-year April average of 744 units.
Condo sales remain far below their 10-year April average of 1,673 units.
The rebate removes the full 13% HST on eligible new homes priced up to $1 million.
The federal portion of the rebate still hasn’t fully passed, leaving implementation details unclear.

Why This Matters: The HST rebate is working, but only in parts of the market. Buyers are clearly responding to tax savings on low-rise homes, while condos remain deeply out of favour.

💰 Homes Under $500K Are Back

Source: Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

The 411: : Homes under $500K are making up a bigger share of Ontario’s market again, but mostly because condo prices are sliding.

Homes valued under $500K now make up nearly 24% of Ontario’s market, up from 17% in 2022.
That is still nowhere near 2016, when 67% of homes were under $500K.
The share of homes over $1M has dropped from 35% in 2022 to about 25% today.
Condos are driving most of the “affordability” shift, with 46% now valued under $500K, up from 24% in 2022.
Other home types are still much less accessible. Only 5% of townhomes, 15% of semis, and 18% of detached homes are under $500K.
More Ontario communities are moving below the $750K median value mark, including Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Hamilton, Collingwood, Kawartha Lakes, Gravenhurst, and Brock.

Why This Matters: Ontario’s market is getting cheaper, but not evenly. Condos are creating most of the new sub-$500K options, while family-sized homes remain far out of reach. That means affordability is improving, but the type of housing people actually want may still be missing.

🧾 Hamilton’s Airbnb Tax Begins

Source: The Hamilton Spectator

The 411: Hamilton will start charging a 4% municipal accommodation tax on licensed short-term rentals starting July 1.

The tax applies to Airbnb, Vrbo, and other short-term rentals booked for fewer than 30 nights.
Guests will pay the 4% charge as part of their booking fee.
Hotels in Hamilton have already paid the tax since 2023, but short-term rentals were delayed.
The city says the delay was tied to creating a licensing framework and getting a list of operators.
Hamilton now has 72 licensed short-term rentals.
Existing bookings made before July 1 will not be charged, but new bookings after that date will be.
Half of the tax revenue must go to Hamilton’s tourism corporation.
The rest will support tourism projects, events, and city marketing.

Why This Matters: Hamilton is bringing short-term rentals into the same tax bucket as hotels. It makes Airbnb stays slightly pricier for guests, but also gives the city another way to fund tourism and major events. It also shows municipalities are getting more serious about regulating short-term rentals.

😬 Mortgage Stress Is Rising

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canadian mortgage arrears just hit a 12-year high, signaling growing financial stress as more borrowers fall behind on payments.

The mortgage arrears rate rose to 0.279% in April, the highest level for that month in 12 years.
Mortgages that are 90+ days past due have nearly doubled since September 2022.
Total mortgages in arrears climbed to 13,752, up 26% from last year.
That is the highest number of delinquent mortgages since March 2014.
Since the 2022 cycle low, mortgages in arrears have jumped 89%.
Meanwhile, total mortgages held by banks fell to 4.93 million, down 190,000 from peak levels.
That effectively wipes out the entire mortgage growth seen during the low-rate boom from 2020 onward.
Analysts say the issue is less about rates alone and more about how much debt households took on during the boom.

Why This Matters: This is one of the clearest signs yet that financial stress is building beneath Canada’s housing market. More homeowners are struggling to keep up with payments, even as overall mortgage growth stalls. The bigger concern is that rising arrears often show up late, meaning today’s numbers may only be the early warning signs.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada talks a lot about immigration, but not enough about emigration. In 2021, 67% of people leaving Canada were between ages 20 and 44, and nearly 70% had a university degree. That’s a lot of young, educated talent quietly heading for the exit.

Stats Can

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Big Money Moves In

Tue, 23 Jun 2026 20:23:06 +0000

💰 Big Funds Bet On Condos

Source: RENX

The 411: High Art Capital is launching a $1.3 billion fund to buy unsold GTA condos and convert them into long-term rentals.

High Art Capital plans to raise at least $1.3 billion to acquire blocks of newly built unsold condos across the GTA.
The initiative aims to deliver roughly 2,200 rental units in the near term.
About 550 of those units will be designated as affordable rentals with long-term protections.
Affordable rents will be set at either 25% below market rent or 30% of median household income, whichever is lower.
The fund is backed by up to $300 million in mezzanine debt from Ontario’s Building Ontario Fund.
Another $300 million is expected from private equity, with roughly $733 million from bank financing.
Eligible buildings must have at least 10 vacant units and be completed on or after Jan. 1, 2023.
The target market includes Toronto plus Durham, Halton, Peel, and York regions.

Why This Matters: Funds are starting to buy up unsold condos because prices have dipped and they see Toronto’s long-term demand coming back. For developers, it clears stuck inventory and keeps projects alive. For everyone else, it shows big money is treating today’s condo slump like a buying opportunity, not a permanent crash.

💸 Ottawa Drops $5B On B.C. Housing

Source: Prime Minister’s Office

The 411: Ottawa and B.C. are rolling out a $3.2B developer subsidy and plan to buy unsold condos to unfreeze the province’s housing market.

The federal government is investing more than $5 billion in B.C. infrastructure over the next 10 years.
Nearly $1.6 billion in federal funding will be matched by B.C. for a total of up to $3.2 billion to lower development charges for multi-unit housing.
Development charges could fall by up to 50%, saving builders as much as $40,000 per unit in priority communities.
Ottawa and B.C. are launching a condo conversion partnership through Build Canada Homes and BC Housing.
More than 2,200 vacant condo units will be converted into affordable housing in priority growth areas.
The federal government is also committing $2.5 billion over 10 years for transit projects in B.C.
An additional $284 million one-time transfer will help reduce barriers to new construction.

Why This Matters: This is one of the biggest government interventions in Canada’s housing market in years. Ottawa is not just trying to boost supply, it is actively stepping in to reduce developer costs and absorb unsold condo inventory. The big question is whether this improves affordability, or simply helps stabilize a market that has become increasingly difficult to sustain on its own.

📦 Storage Gets A $1.67B Bet

Source: RENX

The 411: Public Storage is buying Public Storage Canada for $1.67 billion, making a major bet on Canada’s growing self-storage market.

Texas-based Public Storage is acquiring Public Storage Canada for $1.67 billion.
The portfolio includes 68 self-storage facilities across Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, and Ottawa.
The assets total 5.3 million square feet of storage space.
Public Storage says Canadian markets have lower storage supply per capita than the U.S.
The company sees strong long-term growth in major urban markets.
The deal includes cash, operating units, and potential earn-out payments tied to performance.
The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026.

Why This Matters: Self-storage keeps quietly attracting big institutional money. It is one of the most resilient asset classes in commercial real estate, benefiting from population growth, downsizing, and urban density. A $1.67B deal like this shows investors still see strong long-term value in Canada’s storage market.

📉 Sales Hit 20-Year Low

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canadian home prices rose for a fourth straight month in May, but weak sales and rising inventory suggest the market is far from healthy.

The price of a typical Canadian home rose 0.23% in May to $667,700, marking a fourth straight monthly increase.
Despite the recent uptick, prices are still down 4.1% year over year and 20.6% below the March 2022 peak.
Home sales fell 5.1% annually to 47,014 transactions, making this the weakest May for sales in at least 20 years.
New listings dropped 7.9% to 101,270, but inventory remains elevated by historical standards.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio rose to 46.4%, slightly tighter than last year.
That ratio is still sitting near levels last seen during the early 1990s housing crash.
Outside of 2025 and 2026, Canada has not seen a May sales-to-new-listings ratio below 50% since 1995.

Why This Matters: Mostly because fewer sellers are listing, not because buyers are rushing back. The bigger red flag is that demand conditions are sitting near levels Canada has not seen since the 90s crash.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canadian rents climbed for longer than U.S. rents despite both markets peaking around 2022. Now Canada’s rent growth has fallen below zero while U.S. rents are still rising modestly. The market finally found affordability’s ceiling.

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Is The HST Rebate Working?

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 14:53:09 +0000

🤔 Is The HST Rebate Working?

Source: CBC

The 411: The first month of Ontario’s HST rebate saw GTA new home sales nearly triple, but condos are still struggling.

GTA new home sales reached 1,100 units in April, up from 384 a year earlier.
Single-family home sales surged to 901 units, nearly four times higher than last year's 241 sales.
Condo sales increased too, but only to 199 units from 143 a year ago.
The rebate removes the full 13% HST on eligible new homes valued up to $1 million.
Industry groups say the rebate is having its intended effect by bringing buyers back into the market.
Despite the jump, condo sales remain far below the historical April average of 1,673 units.
Single-family sales are now above their 10-year April average of 744 units.
The federal portion of the rebate still requires legislation to fully pass through Parliament.

Why This Matters: The HST rebate appears to be doing exactly what it was designed to do: get buyers off the sidelines. But the split between houses and condos tells a bigger story. Buyers are jumping on family-sized homes, while the condo market remains stuck in neutral, suggesting affordability isn't the only problem facing Toronto's condo sector.

📉 Home Prices Fell 20% And It’s Still Not Enough

Source: Bloomberg

The 411: Canada’s housing market has already fallen about 20% from its peak, but most Canadians still think homes are too expensive.

National home prices have dropped roughly 20% since 2022, with some cities down more than 30%.
Despite the correction, 55% of Canadians want prices to fall further.
Among Canadians aged 18 to 34, that jumps to 69%.
Even two-thirds of homeowners say the price declines have been positive for the housing market.
Economists say today’s prices are only back to pre-pandemic levels, when affordability was already considered a crisis.
Housing costs still consume roughly 88% of household income in Vancouver and 63% in Toronto.
First-time buyers remain hesitant, worried prices could keep falling.
Record condo inventory isn't helping much because many units don't match what buyers actually want.

Why This Matters: A 20% drop sounds dramatic until you remember prices rose even faster before that. The market may be correcting, but affordability still isn't fixed. That's a reminder that Canada's housing problem isn't just about prices, it's about the massive gap between home values and household incomes.

🤫Developers Hiding The Real Price

Source: Vancouver Sun

The 411: Developers are increasingly using off-market sales, bulk deals, and restrictive listing practices to hide falling condo prices from buyers.

Some developers claim projects are “80% sold,” but industry insiders say those numbers are often impossible to verify.
Metro Vancouver currently has an estimated 2,500 to 3,500 completed condos sitting unsold, the highest inventory in two decades.
Some luxury condo investors are taking major losses, with units reselling hundreds of thousands below their original pre-construction prices.
Developers often limit how many available units appear on the market to avoid looking desperate.
Many builders restrict assignment sales from being listed on MLS, reducing public visibility into actual market pricing.
Bulk sales to institutional buyers can happen at discounts of 15% or more without becoming public knowledge.

Why This Matters: Housing markets rely on price discovery. When discounts, bulk sales, and unsold inventory stay hidden, buyers and sellers are making decisions with incomplete information. The result is a market where published prices may not reflect what properties are actually worth.

💰 Banks Won’t Fund Condos

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Condo developers are asking Canada's big banks to loosen financing rules as presales collapse across the country.

Most banks require developers to presell roughly 70% of condo units before providing construction financing.
Developers say that threshold no longer works in today's market.
Toronto condo presales are down more than 90% from their pandemic-era peak.
The slowdown has triggered project cancellations, delays, job cuts, and developer defaults.
Some builders want the presale requirement lowered to 50%, while others suggest 30% to 40%.
Banks are reportedly open to discussing changes to the current model.
Unlike rental projects, condo developments don't receive CMHC financing support.

Why This Matters: When developers can't hit presale targets, projects don't get built, regardless of demand. The result is fewer condos, fewer construction jobs, and even less housing supply in the years ahead.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada leaned hard on housing to build household wealth. At the peak, residential real estate made up over 53% of net worth, but now it’s closer to 45%. That’s a yikes for a country that treated homes like the national retirement plan.

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Airbnb Wants Your Home

Tue, 26 May 2026 18:24:15 +0000

⚽ Would You Host World Cup Fans?

Source: AirBNB

The 411: Airbnb is paying new hosts ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as demand for stays surges in Canada.

Airbnb is offering roughly $1,000 CAD to new hosts ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The incentive applies to new entire-home hosts in World Cup host cities.
Airbnb says searches for stays in host cities are already up 80% year over year.
Toronto is expected to host roughly 146,000 fans during the tournament.
Vancouver could see around 204,000 visitors tied to the event.
Deloitte estimates Toronto hosts could earn about $2,700 on average during the tournament.
Vancouver hosts could earn roughly $4,200 on average.
Nearly two-thirds of surveyed residents said they would consider renting out space during the World Cup.

Why This Matters: Mega-events are increasingly turning regular homes into temporary hotels. Airbnb is betting World Cup demand will overwhelm traditional accommodation supply, especially in Toronto and Vancouver. For homeowners, the tournament could become a short-term cash grab.

📑 Your Will Has Loopholes

Source: Investment Executive

The 411: Estate plans can trigger surprise taxes on RRSPs, RIFs, joint property, and assets deemed sold at death.

Estate planning can create surprise tax bills if RRSPs, RIFs, property, and beneficiaries are not structured properly.
RRSPs and RIFs are usually treated as withdrawn at death, which can leave the estate paying the tax bill.
Problems can pop up when the RRSP beneficiary is different from the estate beneficiary. Hello, family drama.
Spousal rollovers are common, but not always the lowest-tax option if the deceased had little income that year.
Adding adult children as joint owners can avoid probate, but it can also create creditor, divorce, and family conflict risks.
Assets deemed sold or withdrawn before death can push income into top tax brackets, sometimes as high as 55%.
Probate fees can also hit estates, reaching up to 1.7% depending on the province or territory.

Why This Matters: Estate planning is not just paperwork, it is tax planning with feelings attached. Small blind spots can turn into big bills or family fights. A cleaner plan can preserve more money and fewer headaches for beneficiaries.

🏨Hilton Bets Bigger On Canada

Source: RENX

The 411: Hilton plans 15 new Canadian hotels in 2026, with 100+ projects in the pipeline across major and secondary markets.

Hilton plans to open about 15 new hotels in Canada in 2026.
The company now has more than 200 Canadian properties after hitting that milestone in 2025.
Its Canadian footprint has nearly doubled over the past decade.
Hilton has more than 100 hotel projects in development across the country.
Focused-service hotels represent about half of Hilton’s Canadian growth.
Extended-stay hotels have doubled in Canada over the past decade as longer trips and flexible work keep demand sticky.
Newer brands are expanding too, with close to 10 Spark by Hilton hotels now open nationwide.
Hilton is targeting big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, plus leisure and secondary markets with strong growth.

Why This Matters: Hilton’s expansion shows hotel investors still see Canada as a growth market. The push into extended-stay and secondary markets suggests demand is shifting beyond downtown business travel. More hotels also signal confidence in tourism, migration, and regional economic growth.

🛍️ First Capital Sold In $9B Deal

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Choice Properties and KingSett are splitting First Capital REIT in a $9.4B Canadian real estate deal.

Choice Properties REIT and KingSett Capital are buying First Capital REIT in a deal worth roughly $9.4 billion including debt.
The portfolio spans 136 retail-focused properties across B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec.
Choice Properties will take about $5 billion worth of neighbourhood shopping centres.
KingSett will acquire roughly $4.4 billion in high-street retail assets.
Key locations include Toronto’s Liberty Village and Vancouver’s False Creek Village.
Choice Properties says the acquisition will strengthen its urban footprint and diversify tenants.
The portfolio includes 50 grocery tenants competing with Loblaw, plus 65 Loblaw and Shoppers Drug Mart locations.
First Capital unitholders will receive cash plus Choice Properties units under the agreement.

Why This Matters: Big money is quietly moving back into retail real estate. Despite all the “retail is dead” talk, grocery-anchored shopping centres and urban retail remain some of the most stable income-producing assets in Canada. This deal also shows major investors are betting consumer spending and urban neighbourhood demand will hold up long term.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada let home prices run way ahead of incomes for years. Now real home values are down 28.7% from peak, which is basically affordability dragging the market back to earth.

Wages took the stairs while housing took a rocket, and the rocket is finally running out of fuel.

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Cottage Country Gets Busy

Wed, 20 May 2026 14:43:35 +0000

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🗽Americans Buy Ontario Cottages

Source: The Star

The 411: American buyers are increasingly eyeing Ontario cottages as prices soften and the U.S. dollar strengthens.

American buyers are increasingly looking at Ontario cottages, especially in Kawartha Lakes and Muskoka.
Realtors say interest picked up after Trump’s election, political unrest, and growing U.S. instability.
The strong U.S. dollar is making Canadian recreational property look cheap to Americans.
Ontario cottage markets are still soft overall, with high inventory and slower sales.
Lower-priced cottages may still see price declines, while luxury properties above $3M are holding up better.
Since the 2022 peak, smaller “tier two” lake markets have fallen roughly 25%, while premium lakes stayed more stable.
Foreign buyer bans largely do not apply to recreational properties, helping sustain international demand.

Why This Matters: Ontario cottage markets may be slowing, but American buyers are starting to see opportunity instead of risk. A stronger U.S. dollar and softer prices are making Canadian waterfront property look like a bargain.

🛶 Young Buyers Eyes Cottage Country

Source: Re/Max Recreational Report

The 411: Young Canadians are eyeing recreational properties as a cheaper path into homeownership and wealth building.

REMAX says 45% of prospective rec-property buyers see it as an entry point into the broader housing market.
Among Canadians aged 18 to 34, 54% say recreational property plays a role in long-term financial planning.
Current owners are also thinking long term, with 60% saying their recreational property is part of their wealth strategy.
Royal LePage expects the median price of a single-family recreational home to rise 4% this year to $604,552.
Prices already rose 4.3% in 2025 to $581,300, despite broader economic uncertainty.
Alberta and Atlantic Canada posted strong gains in 2025, up 10.8% and 11.8% respectively.
Ontario was basically flat at +0.4%, while waterfront property prices fell 5%.

Why This Matters: Young buyers are not just being priced out of cities, they are changing the route into ownership. Recreational homes are becoming a workaround for affordability, wealth building, and lifestyle flexibility. The cottage is no longer just a getaway, it is the backup plan.

🏗️ Telus Enters The Rental Game

Source: The Star

The 411: Telus is turning old telecom sites into thousands of rental homes as it expands into real estate development.

Telus is redeveloping old telecom properties into housing projects across B.C.
The company owns more than 2,000 properties tied to its old copper-wire network.
Around 40 sites are targeted for redevelopment, with plans for roughly 3,000 rental units initially.
Telus wants to grow the portfolio to 10,000 units, with most of them built as rentals instead of condos.
The company says centrally located telecom land near transit makes ideal housing sites.
Telus is pushing ahead even as rents soften and condo demand weakens.
The company believes housing shortages will persist once the market cycle recovers.

Why This Matters: Canada’s housing shortage is getting so obvious that even telecom companies are pivoting into rentals. Telus is turning old infrastructure land into housing because they see long-term demand outlasting today’s slowdown. When corporations start treating apartments like core infrastructure, it shows how valuable rental housing has become.

Concept of 3696 Kingsway, Vancouver. (Arcadis/Ledcor/Telus Living)

🎓 Canada Needs More Student Housing?

Source: RENX

The 411: Canada still faces a major shortage of purpose-built student housing as enrollment outpaces supply.

Canada still has a major shortage of off-campus purpose-built student housing.
More than 1.3 million full-time post-secondary students are competing for limited housing.
Only about 51,747 purpose-built off-campus student beds existed or were being built nationwide.
Universities in Toronto and Vancouver face especially tight rental markets with extremely low vacancy rates.
Many students rely on informal rentals like condos, basements, and shared homes.
Experts say Canada’s student housing sector remains underdeveloped compared to the U.S. and Europe.

Why This Matters: Student housing shortages spill directly into local rental markets. When campuses can’t house students, pressure shifts onto condos, apartments, and shared rentals. That pushes up competition and rents in already tight cities.

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🧾 Rent Control Has Loopholes

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Ontario tenants in rent-controlled units are still facing surprise rent hikes through above-guideline increases.

Living in a rent-controlled building does not fully protect tenants from surprise rent hikes.
Ontario landlords can apply for above-guideline increases (AGIs) tied to repairs and upgrades.
One Toronto tenant is facing a proposed 9% increase spread over three years, on top of normal annual increases.
AGI applications in Ontario have surged from under 300 annually in 2009 to over 1,000 in 2024.
Landlords can start charging AGIs before final approval, though tenants are not required to pay until approved.

Why This Matters: Many renters assume rent control means predictable housing costs, but AGIs create a major loophole. As landlords face rising costs and aging buildings, these increases are becoming more common. That means even “protected” tenants may still face meaningful rent hikes.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

More Canadians are falling behind on mortgage payments, no matter who they borrowed from.

But private lenders are seeing the biggest trouble, with late payments much higher than banks or credit unions.

In plain English: the riskiest loans are starting to go bad first.

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Big Money Coming for Toronto Condos

Tue, 12 May 2026 18:13:47 +0000

💰 Investment Group Bets Big on Toronto

Source: Business Wire

The 411: Jesta Group is making a major bet on Toronto condos with a $500 million plan to scoop up more than 1,000 units over the next year.

Jesta Group entered Toronto’s residential market with a $30 million bulk condo acquisition downtown.
The firm plans to deploy $500 million over 12 months targeting large-scale condo inventory purchases.
The strategy focuses on unsold developer inventory in high-quality downtown locations.
The first acquisition sits near Toronto Metropolitan University, transit, shopping and recreation.
Jesta says the current market created a “unique window” to buy at scale as condo demand slows.
Cushman & Wakefield says the strategy could become a much bigger trend across the city.

Why This Matters: Toronto’s shaky condo market is creating the kind of discount window institutional investors love. When big money is buying while retail buyers are nervous, it usually means they see long-term value hiding under the short-term mess.

🏠 Millennials Stuck at Home

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Nearly 1 in 6 Canadian Millennials aged 25 to 39 still lived with their parents in 2021, double the 8.2% share of Boomers at the same age.

Toronto wins the bleak trophy. About 26.1% of Millennials aged 25 to 39 lived at home, up from 11.3% for Boomers.
For younger Millennials aged 25 to 29, the numbers get spicy. Nationally, 31.1% lived with parents, while Toronto hit a brutal 48.6%.
Vancouver was not far behind, with 36.9% of Millennials under 30 living at home, up from 16% for Boomers.
The “just move somewhere cheaper” advice is looking dusty. Winnipeg, Calgary, Montréal and Halifax all saw more young adults stuck at home too.
This is not just delayed homeownership. It is delayed household formation, which means fewer renters, fewer buyers and fewer young Canadians starting independent lives.
The housing industry may call this pent-up demand. A growing share of young adults cannot even get to the starting line.

Why This Matters: This is not just a “kids these days” story. It shows Canada’s housing crisis is delaying adulthood, not just homeownership. When nearly half of Toronto Millennials under 30 live with parents, that means fewer new renters, fewer first-time buyers and more pressure building on future demand.

💳 Condos Get Klarna’d

Source: Storeys

The 411: A Hamilton condo project is offering buyers a “buy now, pay later” style down payment plan as affordability pressures keep traditional buyers sidelined.

The Rebecca Residences in downtown Hamilton is offering condo units starting in the $300Ks with weekly payment plans instead of large upfront deposits.
Buyers can pay as little as $250 per week over 48 months for a one-bedroom unit.
One-bedroom-plus-den units start in the $400Ks at $300 weekly, while two-bedrooms in the $500Ks require $350 weekly.
The project comes from Rosehaven Homes and will bring 393 units to downtown Hamilton by 2029.
Developers are clearly getting more creative as preconstruction sales continue to stall across the GTA.
The project also benefits from Ontario’s temporary HST rebate, cutting up to $40,000 off select units.

Why This Matters: This is what a slow condo market looks like. When buyers cannot afford traditional deposits, developers start restructuring the payment model instead of lowering prices outright.

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🛍️ RioCan Cashes Out Apartments

Source: Real Estate Magazine

The 411: RioCan is selling off hundreds of millions in apartment assets, including part of Toronto’s FourFifty The Well, as it retreats back to its retail roots.

RioCan is divesting $379 million worth of multifamily properties from its RioCan Living portfolio.
The biggest piece is its 50% stake in FourFifty The Well, the 46-storey rental tower at Toronto’s massive Well development.
The tower includes 592 apartments and was completed in 2024.
RioCan is also selling Bellevue apartment buildings in Montréal and exiting future phases of the project.
The REIT says the sales are part of its strategy to refocus on retail properties instead of apartments.
RioCan has already completed or lined up $1.04 billion in residential asset sales, hitting roughly 80% of its divestment target.
Meanwhile, the REIT is doubling down on shopping centres, recently increasing ownership stakes in Oakville Place and Georgian Mall.
Retail occupancy sits at 98.4%, and new retail leases are signing at rents nearly 59% higher than previous deals.

Why This Matters: One of Canada’s biggest REITs is quietly rotating away from multifamily housing even as the country talks nonstop about rental shortages. That is a notable signal about where institutional investors currently see stronger returns and lower headaches.

💸 Canada’s Wealth Gap Grows

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Canadian household wealth hit a record high in 2025, but most of the gains went to wealthier households with financial assets.

Canadian household wealth hit a record $18.59 trillion in 2025, with the average household now worth $1.08 million, up 5.3% year over year.
The catch: Canada’s “millionaire household” stat is doing some heavy lifting. The top 20% now hold nearly two-thirds of all wealth, averaging $3.5 million each.
Meanwhile, the bottom 40% own just 3% of total wealth, with average net worth sitting at $81,650.
Real estate stopped carrying the team. Average real estate assets slipped 0.7% in 2025 as the national home price index fell 4%.
Stocks saved the spreadsheet. The S&P/TSX jumped 32% in 2025, helping financial assets offset the housing slowdown.

Why This Matters: Wealthier households were less exposed to rising interest rates because more of their money sits in stocks and investments, not just real estate. While home prices softened, the TSX jumped 32%, giving higher-income households another way to grow wealth while more leveraged homeowners felt the squeeze.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Toronto basically approved a second downtown in the middle of North York.

Over 80,000 homes are planned across the Downsview corridor, turning former airport and low-rise lands into one of the largest redevelopment zones in Canada.

Grey = Existing Blue = Under Construction Red = Proposed or Approved

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1 In 19 Rentals Sit Empty

Tue, 05 May 2026 18:29:59 +0000

🏚️ 1 In 19 Rentals Sit Empty

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Nearly 1 in 19 Toronto rentals are vacant as supply surges and incentives quietly cut rents by 13%.

Toronto rental vacancy hit 5.4% in Q1, meaning nearly 1 in 19 units are sitting empty.
That’s more than double vacancy levels from two years ago and the highest since 2021.
The availability rate climbed to 8.0%, or roughly 1 in 12 units looking for tenants.
Rents look sticky on paper, but incentives are doing the real work.
Effective rents are down 13%, cutting about $379 per month from advertised prices.
Two months free rent is now the most common incentive, offered in nearly half of projects.
Supply isn’t slowing, with over 10,000 rental starts in the past year and nearly 9,000 units coming soon.

Why This Matters: Even when supply rises, affordability doesn’t instantly follow. Higher vacancy is easing pressure, but rents are still far above what many can afford. This shows how deep the affordability gap has become, even in a softer market.

💸 Wealth Gap Widens Fast

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada’s wealth gap is widening as the rich buy assets and lower-income households take on more mortgage debt.

Canada’s average household net worth hit $1.08M in Q4 2025, up 5.3% year over year.
But the gains weren’t shared evenly. The top 20% gained $201K, while the bottom 40% gained just $1.7K.
That means the richest households gained roughly 120x more wealth in a single year.
The top 20% now holds 65.7% of all household wealth in Canada.
Meanwhile, the bottom 40% holds just 3.0%, with the bottom 20% effectively at zero or negative.
The rich are piling into financial assets like stocks, which rose nearly 10% year over year.
Lower-income households are doing the opposite, ramping up mortgage debt by 7.5%.

Why This Matters: How people build wealth is now splitting in two very different directions. Asset owners are benefiting from market gains, while others are relying more on debt just to keep up. That gap doesn’t just grow over time, it accelerates.

🚨 Mortgage Stress Hits Brampton

Source: Globe and Mail

The 411: Brampton has Canada’s highest mortgage delinquency rate as rising payments and falling prices hit homeowners.

Brampton now has the highest mortgage delinquency rate among major Canadian cities.
Delinquencies hit 0.6%, more than double the national rate of 0.26%.
The rate has surged from just 0.06% in 2019, showing how fast stress is building.
Rising rates, falling home prices, and job losses are all hitting at once.
Home prices in Brampton jumped from $638K in 2019 to $1.24M in 2022, then fell 30% to $855K.
Larger mortgages are seeing higher default rates, especially loans between $800K and $1M.
One in 20 homes in Brampton is now a power-of-sale listing, far above the Ontario average.

Why This Matters: Rising delinquencies are the first real sign of financial stress hitting homeowners. As more mortgages reset at higher rates, forced sales could increase and put downward pressure on prices. Cracks are starting to show in highly leveraged markets.

🏢 GTA Portfolio Hits The Market

Source: Renx

The 411: Humbold Properties is listing most of its GTA portfolio, including 8 properties totaling over 647,000 sq ft.

Humbold Properties has listed 8 GTA properties, putting most of its portfolio up for sale.
The portfolio totals 647,544 sq ft across industrial, retail, and office assets.
Properties are 92% leased across 93 tenants, offering stable income on paper.
The assets can be bought together or individually, giving flexibility to investors.
Several sites come with redevelopment or intensification potential.
The largest site includes a 9.8-acre mixed-use complex with 235,000+ sq ft.
Industrial assets dominate, including multiple properties in Markham and Toronto.
The sale follows earlier listings in 2025, signaling a broader portfolio exit.

Why This Matters: Large portfolio sales often signal a shift in strategy or market conditions. Even with strong occupancy, owners may be cashing out ahead of uncertainty or repositioning capital. Moves like this can hint at where institutional confidence is heading.

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👀 Save Max Returns Under RECO Watch

Source: Real Estate Magazine

The 411: RECO will lift Save Max freezes after $2.7M in trust shortfalls, but only under strict financial controls.

RECO will lift freezes on Save Max brokerages after finding $2.7M in trust account shortfalls.
The brokerages can operate again, but only under strict safeguards.
RECO says funds were unlawfully moved for things like loan payments, taxes, credit cards, and vendor services.
Around 400 agents were affected across Save Max, First Choice, Supreme, and Ace.
Save Max and First Choice can restart once shortfalls are repaid and protected against.
Broker of record Raman Dua faces an 18-month restriction and a personal guarantee.
Save Max Supreme and Ace will be voluntarily wound down and cancelled.
RECO will require enhanced accounting, third-party bank oversight, transaction approvals, and quarterly inspections.

Why This Matters: Trust accounts are where client and agent money is supposed to be protected, so a $2.7M shortfall is a major confidence issue. Letting Save Max reopen under strict controls shows RECO is trying to protect consumers without fully shutting down the business. It also signals brokerages should expect much tighter financial oversight going forward.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Vancouver is sitting near the top of the global unaffordability chart, with homes priced around 12x income. Toronto is not far behind, while even Calgary and Edmonton look expensive compared to incomes.

Even Canada’s “affordable” cities are still wildly expensive.

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RE/MAX Gets Bought

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:34:13 +0000

🚨 Real Brokerage Buys RE/MAX In Mega Deal

Source: WSJ

The 411: Real Brokerage is acquiring RE/MAX in an $880M deal, creating a global brokerage group with 180,000 agents.

Real Brokerage is acquiring RE/MAX in a deal valued at about $880 million.
The merger will create a new company called Real REMAX Group.
Combined, the firms would have generated $2.3 billion in 2025 revenue.
The new group will support more than 180,000 agents across 120 countries.
RE/MAX shareholders can choose $13.80 per share in cash or shares in the new company.
Real shareholders are expected to own 59% of the combined firm, while RE/MAX shareholders will own 41%.
The companies expect about $30 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2027.
RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage will keep their brand names and franchise models.

📉 Toronto Rents Hit 16 Quarter Low

Source: Urbanation

The 411: Toronto rents fell 3.8% as vacancy hit 5.4% and incentives surged across rental buildings.

Vacancy in GTHA rentals hit 5.4% in Q1, up from 3.6% last year and more than double 2024 levels.
The availability rate climbed to a record 8.0%, as more tenants moved chasing better deals.
Net rents fell 3.8% year over year to $3.52 psf, a 16-quarter low.
Incentives are everywhere, with 66% of buildings offering perks like free rent.
Two months free rent is now the most common deal, offered in nearly half of projects.
Incentives are cutting effective rents by 13%, or about $379 per unit.
Developers are still building, with over 10,000 rental starts in the past year.
Nearly 9,000 new units are set to hit the market over the next 12 months.

Why This Matters: because a surge in supply is finally pushing rents down after years of increases. Rising vacancy and heavy incentives show landlords are struggling to fill units. If this trend holds, it could ease rental costs, but only while supply stays elevated.

💰 Ultra Luxury Buyers Keep Buying

Source: The Globe and Mail

The 411: Toronto’s ultra-luxury condos remain resilient, with $10M+ units seeing minimal price drops despite a weak market. While most of Toronto’s condo market is frozen, the ultra-luxury segment is holding steady.

There are roughly two dozen condos listed above $10 million, with some pushing close to $20 million.
Prices in this segment are down less than 7–8%, compared to a ~25% drop in the broader condo market.
Buyers here are less rate-sensitive and often own multiple properties, making decisions less tied to market swings.
Many deals happen off-market, with about 30% of transactions never hitting public listings.
Security and privacy are becoming key drivers, with wealthy buyers shifting from large homes into luxury towers.

Why This Matters: While most of the market is under pressure, capital at the top end remains relatively insulated. Canada doesn’t have one housing market, it has several moving in different directions.

😬 Toronto Condos Hit Zero

Source: The Star

The 411: Toronto saw zero new condo launches in Q1 as sales hit a 35-year low and prices continue to fall.

For the first time ever, zero new condo projects launched in the GTA in Q1. Not one.
New condo sales collapsed to 246 units, down 52% year over year and 94% below the 10-year average.
Resale condo prices are down roughly 25% from the 2022 peak, marking the largest correction on record.
New condos are still about 20% more expensive than resale, killing demand despite falling prices.
Inventory is piling up. There are 92 months of supply for completed new units at current demand levels.
Developers are pulling back fast, cancelling 963 units in Q1 and over 11,000 since 2024.
Many cancelled projects are being converted into rentals as the investor pool dries up.

Why This Matters: The condo market isn’t just slowing, it’s effectively paused. When launches drop to zero, the future supply pipeline starts disappearing, even if today’s market still looks oversupplied. That creates a messy setup, too many units now, not enough new ones later, and a potential shortage once buyers finally come back.

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🔑 Edmonton Becomes A Renter’s Market

Source: CBC

The 411: Edmonton rents are falling as a building boom floods the market with supply and demand weakens.

Edmonton has flipped into a renter’s market as new supply floods in and demand softens.
Average rent across all unit types fell 2.4% year over year to $1,589 in March.
One-bedroom rents dropped to $1,288, down 1.7% from last year.
Developers have been building aggressively, driven by federal incentives and zoning changes.
Rental construction is now dominating housing activity across major Canadian cities.
Demand is weakening due to factors like youth unemployment, affordability concerns, and fewer temporary workers.
Landlords are offering perks like free rent and incentives just to fill units.

Why This Matters: This is what happens when supply actually shows up. More units hitting the market at once can quickly flip pricing power from landlords to renters.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canadian colleges are laying off staff, merging programs, and cancelling courses as international student numbers drop.

Those students were not just filling classrooms, they were filling budgets, rentals, and local service jobs.

Now the pullback is hitting campuses first, but the ripple effects could show up in weaker rental demand, softer spending, and fewer future workers.

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Housing Stalls Again..

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 19:32:34 +0000

🏗️ Fewer Homes In The Pipeline

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada’s building permits fell 8.4% in February, with fewer homes approved and non-residential investment dropping 24%.

Canada’s building permit value fell 8.4% in February to $12.1 billion, and was down 8.6% from a year ago.
Permit values fell 8.6% month over month and 11.5% year over year, making this the weakest February since 2023.
Residential permits rose 1.7% to $8.1 billion, but that tiny win came with a catch. Total housing units authorized fell to 24,889, down 0.8% from January and 4.6% from last year.
Multi-family did the heavy lifting, with permit values up 3.4%. Single-family kept sliding, down 1.6% to $2.7 billion.
Non-residential was the real faceplant. Permit values plunged 24.0% to $4.0 billion and now sit 18.6% below last year.
Commercial fell 7.2% to $2.0 billion, its fourth straight monthly drop, while industrial slipped 9.6% to $985.1 million.

Why This Matters: Building permits are one of the first clues about future supply. When fewer homes get approved, the housing pipeline gets thinner before the shortage shows up in prices or rents. The sharp non-residential drop also hints that business confidence is cooling, not just homebuilding.

⚠️ Canada’s Housing Market is Overleveraged

Source: The Hub

The 411: Canada’s household debt hit $3.2T, with mortgages driving risk and crowding out productive investment.

Canada’s household debt hit $3.2 trillion in 2025, equal to 177% of disposable income. That’s $1.77 owed for every $1 earned.
At 103% of GDP, Canada now carries the highest household debt load in the G7.
The usual defense is that mortgage debt builds wealth. The problem is it’s all tied to one asset class.
If prices fall, leverage cuts both ways. A 20% drop can wipe out a homeowner’s entire equity.
3.1 million mortgages, or 52% of all loans, will renew by 2027, many at higher rates.
Housing is soaking up capital. Residential investment rose to 7.6% of GDP while business investment fell to 5.7%.
Only about half of that housing “investment” actually builds new homes. The rest is renovations and transaction costs.

Why This Matters: Canada’s huge mortgage load makes households, and the broader economy, more vulnerable when rates stay high or prices fall. When more money flows into housing debt, less gets invested in businesses, productivity, and the parts of the economy that actually drive growth. That leaves Canada more exposed to a housing wobble and less equipped to grow its way out of it.

📉 Toronto Condos Hit Zero

Source: The Star

The 411: Toronto saw zero new condo launches in Q1 as sales hit a 35-year low and prices continue to fall.

For the first time ever, zero new condo projects launched in the GTA in Q1. Not one.
New condo sales collapsed to 246 units, down 52% year over year and 94% below the 10-year average.
Resale condo prices are down roughly 25% from the 2022 peak, marking the largest correction on record.
New condos are still about 20% more expensive than resale, killing demand despite falling prices.
Inventory is piling up. There are 92 months of supply for completed new units at current demand levels.
Developers are pulling back fast, cancelling 963 units in Q1 and over 11,000 since 2024.
Many cancelled projects are being converted into rentals as the investor pool dries up.

Why This Matters: Today’s cancelled projects are tomorrow’s supply shortage. With developers sidelined and launches at zero, the pipeline for new housing is drying up fast. Translation: short-term pain now could mean tighter supply and upward pressure later.

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🛂 Canada’s Immigration Rules Are Changing

Source: The Star

The 411: Canada plans to prioritize high-wage immigrants, reshaping its skilled worker system and labour market.

Ottawa plans to scrap three core skilled immigration programs and fold them into one new federal high-skilled class.
The changes would replace the federal skilled worker, Canadian experience class, and federal skilled trades programs.
Those three streams brought in 92,795 permanent residents in 2024.
The pitch is simpler rules and a broader talent pool for employers hunting skilled workers.
Ottawa also wants to drop the co-op work permit requirement for international students and the study permit requirement for foreign apprentices.
Work authorization would be extended for some students and graduates waiting on permit decisions.
The package also includes asylum rule changes, including new limits on who can make a refugee claim.

Why This Matters: Ottawa is not just adjusting immigration targets, it is redesigning the plumbing. Merging major streams into one class could change who gets selected, how fast they arrive, and where labour demand gets filled.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

A huge share of Canadian borrowers will renew in 2026, many after locking in at rock-bottom rates in 2021.

When those mortgages reset, monthly payments jump, even if home prices do not. That creates a broad payment shock that can hit spending, selling activity, and housing demand all at once.

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A Very Uneven Market

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 18:08:36 +0000

🏡 Saskatchewan is Not Slowing down

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Ontario mortgage stress is climbing fast, and the province’s arrears rate has now moved above the national average, a rare signal that has historically lined up with major housing downturns.

Saskatchewan’s benchmark home price hit a record $374,100 in March, up from $363,800 the month before.
Saskatoon reached an all-time high benchmark price of $435,200, while Regina climbed to $343,700.
Inventory across Saskatchewan is running about 50% below normal seasonal levels, keeping pressure on both buyers and prices.
Saskatoon has less than 2 months of housing supply, which is well below what is considered a balanced market.
Buyers in Saskatoon are overbidding by an average of $34,000 to $36,000, with some offers reaching as high as $120,000 over asking.

Why This Matters: Saskatchewan is one of the few markets in Canada still seeing real price growth while much of the country cools. It is also one of the last major markets with a benchmark price well below the national average, giving investors a cheaper entry point with stronger upside than most big cities.

_(source)

💀 West Vancouver Housing Targets Hit a Wall

Source: CTV News

The 411: Vancouver is falling badly behind on its housing targets, but local officials say the bigger issue is brutal project economics. Even approved developments are stalling because the numbers no longer work.

West Vancouver has completed just one-third of the housing targets the province set in 2023.
One 200-unit project made it all the way to the building permit stage before the developer pulled the permits.
Rising construction costs, high interest rates, and weak demand have made it hard for projects to sell at prices that actually cover building costs.
The province has still stepped in, with Housing Minister Christine Boyle overruling council to allow more density in parts of Ambleside.
Local agents say luxury condo demand has weakened, while the biggest unmet need is for seniors and young families looking for transition housing.

Why This Matters: This is a clear sign that zoning alone does not build housing. If projects are getting approved but still not moving, the real problem is that development math across Metro Vancouver is breaking down. For investors, builders, and policymakers, that means more stalled supply even in markets being pushed to densify.

📈 No More Hikes?

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Canada’s job market is looking too weak to support any new rate hikes, and economists now say markets betting on higher rates are getting ahead of themselves. That matters because softer labour data gives the Bank of Canada more reason to stay put.

Canada added just 14,000 jobs in March after losing nearly 110,000 jobs across January and February combined.
The national unemployment rate held at 6.7%, while the core 25 to 54 age group saw unemployment rise to 5.8% for a third straight month.
Full-time employment is down 40,000 over the past six months, while part-time jobs have risen by more than 80,000.
Financial services alone cut nearly 20,000 jobs between February and March, a notable hit in one of the country’s key white-collar sectors.
In B.C., unemployment jumped to 6.7%, up 0.6 points and the highest outside pandemic years since February 2016.
Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 2.25% through the rest of 2026.

Why This Matters: A weak jobs market makes rate hikes much harder to justify, which means borrowing costs may stay lower for longer than many expected. That could help support housing demand on paper, but softer employment and fewer full-time paycheques also mean buyers and renters are under more pressure..

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📬 Ottawa Expands Vacant Tax Reach

Source: Ottawa Citizen

The 411: Ottawa’s vacant unit tax is doing more than targeting empty homes. It is quietly becoming a powerful data and revenue tool, even as some homeowners push back on the annual reporting requirement.

The tax applies to homes left vacant for more than 184 days and is set at 1% of the property’s assessed value.
Since launching in 2022, the city has collected millions in revenue, much of it directed toward affordable housing initiatives.
The program now has email contacts for over 327,000 properties, covering 97.5% of residential units in Ottawa.
Paper mail-outs have dropped 68%, falling to 81,000 from 225,000, saving the city more than $100,000 in postage.
Complaints have dropped by over 70% as the declaration process was streamlined from five minutes to about one minute.

Why This Matters: This is becoming less about vacant homes and more about enforcement and data control. Ottawa now has near-total visibility on occupancy and direct communication with almost every homeowner. For investors, that means tighter compliance, higher carrying costs on empty units, and fewer loopholes to sit on unused property.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

This is what a fragmented market looks like.

Price declines are all over the map, from flat in some regions to nearly 30% down in others, showing there is no single “Canadian housing market” right now.

What matters now is location more than ever, because outcomes are diverging fast depending on where you own.

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The Mortgage Sector is Under Fire

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 16:38:21 +0000

😱 Mortgage Arrears Jump 47 percent

Source: Better Dwelling

Ontario mortgage arrears hit 6,223 in January, up 47.7% year over year and signalling rising borrower stress
The arrears rate hit 0.29% in January, up 10 basis points year over year and the highest Ontario has seen since 2011
That rate is nearly 5x higher than the 2022 low, showing just how quickly conditions have deteriorated since borrowing costs reset higher
That crossover is rare and has only happened twice before in the data, once during the 1991 to 1996 real estate crash and again from 2005 to 2009 around the global financial crisis
The current correction is already being described as Ontario’s second-largest, with pressure building as peak-era buyers, many of them investors, face a weaker market and tighter financing conditions

Why This Matters: It is not just that more borrowers are falling behind. It is that the province has now tripped a warning sign that has shown up during some of the ugliest stretches in its housing history.

🕵️ Mortgage Brokers Under Investigation

Source: The Star

The 411: Ontario’s regulator is stepping up enforcement across financial services, with mortgage brokers and agents facing the bulk of investigations, penalties, and licence actions.

The mortgage industry saw more enforcement action than any other area regulated by FSRA
$1.2 million in penalties issued, with most fines tied to mortgage-related violations
Maximum fines were raised in 2022 to $100,000 for individuals and $500,000 for brokerages, significantly increasing the cost of non-compliance
25 licence revocations or refusals across mortgage and insurance sectors, highlighting enforcement beyond just fines
Common violations include operating without a licence, giving poor or misleading advice, and submitting fraudulent mortgage documents
Agents with less than 2 years experience are now barred from private lending, a shift aimed at reducing errors and inexperience-driven risk

Why This Matters: Ontario is taking a much harder line on mortgage misconduct, especially in private lending and broker-led deals. For the industry, it means more compliance pressure and less tolerance for sloppy or fraudulent behaviour.

🏙️ Productivity Is Stuck at Home

Source: Financial Post

The 411: Canada’s housing crisis is now an economic crisis. When productive cities cannot add enough homes, growth gets priced into land instead of showing up in wages, jobs, and output.

In a healthy market, a productivity boom in one city should lead to more housing, more workers moving in, more jobs, and more national output.
Instead of boosting living standards, productivity gains get absorbed into higher home prices, rents, and land values
Toronto is used as a clear example of underbuilding. Compared with Madrid, which has a similar metro population, Madrid’s peak density is 2.7 times higher and the average person has 2.8 times as many people within 1 kilometre.
In Canada, restrictive zoning and slow approvals often block that process. Instead of building more homes, productive cities get higher prices and rents.

Why This Matters: This suggests the problem is not only high housing costs. It may also be limiting how easily workers can move to the cities with the strongest job markets, while making it harder for businesses in those regions to expand. In that view, housing constraints can weigh on wages, business growth, and overall economic output.

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🏡 Cottage Market Faces Reality

Source: The Globe and Mail

The 411: Ontario’s cottage market is no longer riding pandemic hype. Waterfront scarcity is still supporting top-tier properties, but higher borrowing costs are exposing weakness everywhere else.

Forecasts call for average prices to rise 2% in 2026, while others expect prices to fall 8%, inventory to climb 8%, and sales volume to drop 10% to 15%.
Nationally, waterfront homes already slipped 5.2% to a median of $717,600 in 2025, with listings sitting longer on the market.
The luxury segment is holding up. Cottages above $4M to $5M are seeing steadier demand, with buyers less sensitive to rates and often paying cash.
Haliburton highlights the pandemic hangover, with prices down roughly 20% from peak levels while inventory surged, including 282 new listings in May last year, more than double pandemic-era lows.

Why This Matters: Ontario’s cottage market is splitting in two. Trophy waterfront is still behaving like a scarce luxury asset, while the rest of the market is feeling the full weight of higher rates, cautious buyers, and more supply. That makes pricing power far weaker than it was during the pandemic boom.

🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada could be heading into its first population decline in more than a century just as Ottawa slams the brakes on immigration.

Add roughly 1.4 million temporary visas expiring, most tied to renters, and demand could cool fast right when about 8% of the country’s rental supply under construction is set to hit the market.

That is a rough setup for landlords in 2026, but a very good one for renters ready to negotiate.

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Big policy Moves are Here!

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 17:29:17 +0000

💸 New Homes Just Got $130K Cheaper in Ontario

Source: Ontario

The 411: Ontario is offering a full HST rebate on new homes up to $1M.

New homes under $1M would get a full 13% HST rebate, up to $130,000
Homes from $1M to $1.5M would still get the full $130,000 rebate, with the rebate shrinking to $24,000 by $1.85M
Homes over $1.85M would keep the existing $24,000 provincial rebate
Buyers must sign with a builder between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027
Rental projects can also qualify if the purchase is signed in that window and construction was already underway before March 31, 2026
First-time buyers may also qualify for separate provincial and federal rebates if they signed between March 20, 2025 and December 31, 2030
The federal 5% portion still needs changes to the Excise Tax Act, so the full plan is not final yet

Why This Matters: This is a step in the right direction for getting more projects built. Cutting HST lowers costs and improves project economics at a time when too many deals are stuck. The real question is whether tax relief alone is enough to get builders moving again.

🎉 Ford & Carney Cut Development Charges by 50%

Source: The Star

The 411: Ottawa and Ontario saying are cutting development charges by up to 50%, trying to make new housing projects cheaper to build and harder to cancel.

The federal and Ontario governments say development charges will be cut by up to 50% in municipalities covering 80% of Ontario’s population
The cuts will stay in place for three years and be backed by $8.8B in matched infrastructure funding over 10 years
Carney and Ford say the broader package, including the HST break on certain new homes, could cut taxes and fees by up to $200,000 per home
Development charges have become a major cost barrier for builders, especially as financing, labour, and materials stay expensive
Governments say municipalities will be expected to support the fee cuts, while new infrastructure funding helps cover the revenue hit
Ontario will now work with municipalities to submit infrastructure projects for approval

Why This Matters: Development charges have become one of the biggest costs in getting a project off the ground. Cutting them by up to 50% directly improves project economics and can turn shelved deals into viable ones. It won’t fix everything, but it removes a major friction point that’s been killing new supply.

🏘️ Calgary Cuts Density Rules After Builder Pushback

Source: Global News

The 411: Calgary is now proposing to water down its blanket rezoning rules, potentially limiting where and how much density can actually get built.

The city is considering banning mid-block rowhouses and limiting them to the ends of blocks
Proposed changes would cut density from 75 to 60 units per hectare
New rules would also lower lot coverage, cap building heights at 10 metres, and tighten setback requirements
Builders warn the changes could make projects financially unviable, adding about $143,000 per unit in some cases

Why This Matters: This is a step backward for supply. Tightening rules and cutting density directly hurts project viability and slows approvals. The real question is whether political pressure will keep chipping away at policies meant to increase housing.

🎾 Pickleball vs Property Tax

Source: CityTV News

The 411: Toronto is punishing creative uses of stalled condo sites, slapping commercial tax rates on projects that were never built.

Vacant condo site at 8 Rosehill Place was turned into a pop-up pickleball club instead of sitting empty
The site includes five pickleball courts, two padel courts, and draws thousands of visitors in warmer months
Because users pay about $35 per session, MPAC reclassified the land from vacant residential to commercial
That reassessment could trigger a $500,000 tax bill, making the temporary use financially unworkable
MPAC says current provincial rules require commercial classification for paid recreational facilities

Why This Matters: If temporary uses get taxed like finished towers, developers will leave sites empty. That means fewer amenities, slower neighbourhood activation, and more dead space across Toronto.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Toronto already has 800,000-plus units proposed or approved, and the skyline still looks like it swallowed a box of red crayons.

The map breaks it down: grey is already built, blue is under construction, and red is proposed or approved

Toronto doesn’t have a housing shortage problem, it has a delivery problem. On paper, the city is building the future. In reality, a lot of it is still stuck in planning limbo

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Rental Market Round Up

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 14:53:12 +0000

Thanks to our new partnership with SingleKey, you're getting exclusive market data and a behind‑the‑scenes look at what’s really happening in the rental market.

📈 Rents Cool But Demand Sticks

Average asking rent in Canada fell to about $2,060 in December 2025, down roughly 2.3% year over year and at the lowest level in about 2.5 years.
By February 2026, average asking rent dipped further to roughly $2,030, a 33‑month low and the 17th straight month of annual rent declines.
January’s rebound was more about demand than price: national rental demand scores jumped about 33% from December as prospect counts surged 35% month over month.
The market feels calmer but not dead: demand is thinner and more selective, with renters taking longer to move and focusing on deals rather than bidding wars.

Rental trend data brought to you by SingleKey.

📊 National Rental Trends:

December ↓ 18.6% vs. November
January: ↑ 30% vs. December
February: ↑ 10.7% vs. January
March forecast: ↑ 34.5%

📍 Provincial insights:

B.C. posted one of the strongest rebounds, signalling that leasing demand returned.
Alberta regained momentum quickly after a moderate dip.
The Prairies saw the sharpest December decline and a strong January correction. Rapid rebounds increase screening pressure.
Ontario experienced a notable holiday slowdown; competition will intensify heading into March.
Quebec remained the most stable, reinforcing consistent demand.
The Maritimes recorded the largest January surge nationwide, showing aggressive early-season activity.

_{Rental trend data presented by SingleKey.}

📍CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026

According to CMHC’s 2026 housing report, Canada’s economy is expected to grow slowly in 2026, as softer job markets and population growth weigh on demand.
Conditions are projected to improve gradually in 2027–2028.
Home sales and price growth remain below historical averages. More
renters may delay buying, supporting rental demand
New construction is slowing. Rental supply will continue to grow, but at
a slower pace.
Rental markets are moving toward balance. Rent growth is easing,
giving tenants more options and increasing rent price competition.
Ontario and B.C. home sales and construction are slowing, so focus on tenant quality and retention, not just pricing power. Housing activity in the Prairies and Quebec remains comparatively stronger, signalling healthier demand but increased competition for quality tenants.
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🛠 More Resources for Landlords

🤔 WTF of the Week:

This property was left in shambles after a year-long eviction battle.

Another example of how one bad tenant can cost far more than lost rent, which is why proper screening matters. (especially with Ontario’s landlord/tenant laws)

@atiqueg
Canada need to fix this system need to fix it

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How the Iran War Could Hit Your Mortgage

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 17:36:59 +0000

💰 Why the Iran War Could Drive BoC Rate Hikes

Source: BNN Bloomberg

The 411: Markets have flipped from expecting Bank of Canada cuts to pricing in 75 bps of hikes by year-end, driven by the Iran war and a spike in oil and LNG prices.

Money markets flipped fast. Traders went from pricing a mid-year cut to pricing 75 basis points of Bank of Canada hikes by the end of 2026.
Odds of a hike next month jumped to more than 20%, up from roughly 4% a day earlier.
Since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, oil and LNG prices have surged and the Strait of Hormuz has been shut, choking off nearly 20% of global oil trade.
That is bad news for inflation. Higher energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs are the kind of imported headache central banks hate because they bleed into everything else.
The BoC has held its policy rate at 2.25% since October, but he said it would not let energy-driven inflation become broad or persistent.

Why This Matters: Mortgage pressure is back on the table. If markets are right and 75 bps of hikes land, borrowing costs rise again just as many buyers were waiting for relief. It is also a warning that fixed rates can move before the Bank of Canada does, which means sentiment and affordability can worsen long before any official hike arrives.

🌍 Population Drop Hits Housing Demand

Source: Better Dwelling

The 411: Canada’s population just posted its first annual decline ever, and that could ease rental demand faster than many expected.

Canada’s population fell by 103,500 in Q1 2026 to 41.47 million, a 0.25% quarterly drop and the first back-to-back quarterly decline on record.
Since peaking in Q3 2024, Canada’s population has contracted by 179,600 people, or 0.4%.
The decline was driven almost entirely by non-permanent residents, whose population fell by 171,300 in Q1 to 2.68 million.
Non-permanent residents are now down 14.7% from a year ago and 15.1% below their Q4 2024 peak of 3.15 million.

Why This Matters: Population growth has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting for rents, absorption, and housing demand. If that engine slows while construction is already weak and rates stay high, the market loses one of its biggest support beams.

💸 Commercial Capital Is Back but Picky

Source: CBRE

The 411: CBRE surveyed 47 lenders with over $200B in loans and found capital is still flowing, with most lenders open to financing across asset classes.

Multifamily remains the top target, while office sentiment is rebounding for the first time in six years, with lenders planning to increase exposure.
Vancouver is now the top market for lender appetite, overtaking Toronto for the first time in a decade, with Calgary also climbing in rankings.
Hamilton saw the biggest dropping from 6th to 11th, partly due to tariff exposure in steel and auto sectors.
The biggest concern is macro. 74% of lenders flagged economic weakness as the top risk, followed by soft fundamentals and valuation uncertainty.

Why This Matters: More lender competition is good news for strong assets and experienced sponsors, because it can mean better pricing, more options, and a little breathing room on execution. But the fact that lenders are still openly worried about weak growth, soft fundamentals, and outdated office stock tells you this is not a broad recovery, it is a selective one.

🚗 The $100K Parking Problem

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Parking minimums are quietly killing housing supply by adding $50K to $100K per unit and making many projects unworkable. Cities like Toronto are starting to scrap the rules, and early signs show developers building more units with less parking.

Parking minimums force developers to build costly stalls, often 1 to 2 per unit, adding $50,000 to $100,000 per space and up to $25M on a typical mid-size project.
These costs get passed directly to buyers and renters, making housing less affordable while limiting how many units can be built.
Many projects become financially unviable once parking requirements are factored in, especially in mid-sized cities where margins are tighter.
Cities like Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary have started removing or reducing parking minimums, with early results showing faster lease-ups.

Why This Matters: Eliminating parking minimums is only a clear win in locations where transit is actually reliable enough for people to live without a car. In much of Toronto, parking still carries real value, so removing it does not automatically make a project better. For investors, the opportunity is in knowing which sites can truly support less parking and which ones are just pretending they can.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

If you bought a GTA condo in 2022, the median resale price in January 2026 says you are down $116K.

But if you bought in 2016, you are up $161K, proving that in Toronto real estate, timing does a lot of the heavy lifting.

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Ontario’s $1.3B Condo Rescue Plan

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:48:54 +0000

💰 The Government is Buying Condos Now?

Source: TMX News Corp File

The 411: Ontario backs a $1.3B fund to buy unsold GTA condos and convert them into rentals, targeting 2,200 units including 550 affordable homes.

A new $1.3B fund backed by Ontario will buy blocks of unsold GTA condos and convert them into long-term rental housing.
The initiative is run by High Art Capital with support from the Building Ontario Fund, which is contributing up to $300M in mezzanine financing plus a small equity stake.
The plan targets 2,200 units in the near term, including about 550 affordable rentals priced at either 25% below market rent or 30% of median GTA household income.
Eligible properties must be newly completed condos built after Jan 1, 2023, with at least 10 unsold units in the same building.
Leasing and property management will be handled by Tridel and Menkes, while a non-profit will allocate the affordable units.

Why This Matters: This looks less like a housing fix and more like a developer rescue. The government is stepping in to absorb remaining condo inventory developers could not sell, while renters get little relief from the underlying affordability problem. The real question is not whether this helps housing, but why public-backed capital is being used to clean up private-market backlog.

🔍 RECO Cracks Down on Brokerages

Source: Real Estate Magazine

The 411: RECO will require annual brokerage financial filings after trust account scandals exposed weak oversight in Ontario real estate.

RECO is forcing all Ontario real estate brokerages to file annual financial reports, a clear sign the trust account mess has gotten too big to ignore.
The move is part of an eight-point modernization plan sparked by the iPro Realty scandal, where about $10M went missing from trust accounts.
RECO says the filings will help spot financial red flags earlier and support a more risk-based compliance model, with more scrutiny aimed at firms showing warning signs.
OREA is backing the tougher oversight and says the changes should help rebuild confidence in how deposits and trust funds are handled.

Why This Matters: This is a basic consumer protection issue. Trust accounts hold client money, so stronger financial oversight is intended to reduce the risk of problems going undetected. The real test will be whether these new rules help RECO identify issues earlier and restore confidence in the system.

🌍 Iran War Hits Mortgage Renewals

Source: Yahoo Finance

The 411: New CRA enforcement means Canadian landlords need tighter tax planning in 2026.

Global tensions around Iran are now rippling into Canada’s housing market through one key channel: mortgage rates.
When oil prices spike, investors worry about inflation. That pushes government bond yields higher, which lenders use to price fixed mortgages.
Since the conflict escalated, some lenders have already lifted fixed mortgage rates by roughly 0.25 percentage points.
The timing is brutal. Canada is in the middle of a massive renewal wave, with about 1 million households expected to renew their mortgage in 2026.
Mortgage rates remain relatively competitive for now, with some five-year fixed rates still below 4% and variables around 3.35%.
But volatility is the bigger issue. Experts say geopolitical headlines are now moving bond markets and mortgage pricing almost in real time.

Why This Matters: Canada is already in a massive mortgage renewal wave. When oil spikes and bond yields jump, mortgage rates tend to follow. That means global conflicts can quietly turn into higher monthly payments for homeowners

✈️ Ford Seizes Airport Land

Source: Globe & Mail

The 411: Doug Ford plans to expropriate Toronto’s stake in Billy Bishop Airport to allow jets and expand the downtown runway.

Doug Ford says Ontario will seize Toronto’s stake in Billy Bishop Airport to push ahead with plans to allow jets.
The goal is to remove the city from the tripartite agreement that currently restricts jets at the downtown airport.
Ford argues the airport is a “crown jewel” economic asset and says Toronto will be compensated for the land and up to $5M a year in lost revenue.
The airport currently handles about 2.8M passengers annually using 78-seat turboprop planes operated by Porter and Air Canada.
The province hopes expansion could happen as early as 2030, though no detailed plan for runway length, flights or passenger capacity has been released.

Why This Matters: Billy Bishop is one of Canada’s most constrained airports, so any expansion could significantly increase downtown air capacity. But changing the rules that govern the airport would require cooperation across multiple levels of government. For now, the proposal signals a potential shift in how the airport could operate in the future.

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🤔 WTF of the Week:

Canada’s housing downturn is now the deepest among major economies. Data shows nominal residential property prices in Canada fell 18% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, worse than every country on the chart.

That is not just a correction. That is Canada moving from housing leader to global underperformer.

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Zown

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