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SWS Brain Dump

Food 4 💬 09-30-25

Here is what I was thinking about while eating dinner…

• The best part about my method of active investing is that it makes it very hard to panic. We buy stuff that should be in a bullish trend for the next 2-3 years, and when we match this with technical analysis, we get great entries and an extreme amount of short-term gains.

• With those short-term gains, you can hold, sell, roll to another company, etc., you have options. I sometimes sell for access to cash, but I prefer to wait until after 1 year to capitalize on lower tax rates. On many occasions, I hold for 3+ years catching the full bullish trend, or on the flip side, we wait 2 years before we buy a stock because we know the time is not now. There’s a skill to compounding for sure.

$NVDA ( ▼ 3.73% ) CEO with some wise words

Twitter tweet

Another Government Shutdown? What does this mean?

2025 Government Shutdown | Congressman Greg Stanton

Congress has less than 24 hours to avert a shutdown. The odds don’t look good

stanton.house.gov/2025-shutdown

No one is scared. And if you are, you shouldn’t be. Let me make myself clear.

Over the next 1-2 years, people will lose homes, and people will be broken financially, emotionally, and spiritually. For those people, yes, it may be very scary, and that is understandable, as they may not have the resources to weather a storm. Although they have different problems because 9 times out of 10, those individuals aren’t invested in the market enough to really feel what the market is doing.

This brings me to my other point…

• Many non-investors and inexperienced investors think that the economy follows the market or vice versa. This is incorrect. The market does NOT have to be bad because the economy is in a recession. Politicians and hedge funds know how to prop up a market.

SWS Brain Dump pt.2

Food 4 💬 

Trump pumps Cannabis stocks (view)

1. I like $MSOS ( ▼ 2.37% ) as a solid ETF foundation for Cannabis. I think the growth of this industry is clearly rising. Back in 2018-2021, I think people thought it would be a fluke, but the reality is that much of the world is adapting to cannabis and using it for recreation + medical.

2. Investing in this is like legal drug dealing.

3. Companies like $TLRY ( ▼ 2.9% )  $CGC ( ▼ 0.98% ) and others are still worth a sized play, not a core bet. (In my opinion)

4. Largest short/mid term issue is if they agree to increase taxes on Cannabis

   ---

   🌱 Fertilizer & Machinery Autonomy – A Quiet Opportunity

I will look to buy… (Sorry, I cannot give this out for FREE). I believe enough has been shown to know if you are ready to be committed to your investing journey to 6-figures or more.

SWS Brain Dump

Food 4 💬 09-23-25

General News on some stocks we own.

1. $INTC ( ▼ 0.82% ) $5 billion investment from $NVDA ( ▼ 3.73% )  

   

   What does it mean?

   1. What Nvidia’s $5B investment means for Intel:

      1. Big Confidence Boost – Nvidia putting money into Intel is like the best player in the game betting on a teammate to step up. It gives Intel cash and credibility.

      2. Working Together on Chips – Intel will build CPUs that pair with Nvidia’s GPUs for AI and PCs. Instead of competing head-on, they’re teaming up.

      3. Intel Back in the AI Race – This deal gives Intel a real shot to matter again in AI. But it’s not automatic - they still have to execute and prove they can deliver.

$INTC ( ▼ 0.82% ) I alerted this stock at $21. Now at $30

Buying The Dip? Seasonalities

I do believe that seasonalities may play a huge role in October. I believe the deeper we go into our support areas, the better end-of-year rally we could see.

Can the market crash?

Sure, but personally, I don’t see it occurring until Trump leaves office. Trump likes to be flawless, unless something catastrophic takes place like Covid, I don’t think he will have a 2026 crash on his resume.

Job Market

Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, said the following:

• job creation has dropped, possibly due to tariffs

• we’re in a low-hire, low fire economy

• people will need a new skill in the labor market

• the stock market is fairly highly valued

Plan For The Month

1. Keep saving cash

2. Invest partially in value companies that have services not led by AI.

3. I would love to add some long-term swings in $SPY ( ▼ 1.58% ) after it reaches the 640s. IF it occurs, that would be a great opportunity to be bullish going into or early 2026.

   ---

   Stocks I Like

   • If you missed $BABA ( ▼ 3.61% ) , $JD ( ▼ 0.98% ) has a similar setup and similar business. now $30. Target is 60+ in about a year.

That’s it for this week.

Keep showing up, and as always, trade with logic, not emotion. 📈🧠

— The Simplify Wall Street Team

SWS Brain Dump

Food 4 💬 

I spoke with my Investment Advisor friends and we talked about our excitement for the growth of technology over the next 5 years.

Technology is advancing so fast that the USA doesn’t even know how to protect itself from AI. (Watch Below)

A known figure in the stock market community said something interesting. 🤔 

They mentioned how people loved $NVDA ( ▼ 3.73% )  $AMD ( ▼ 4.86% ) and other chip stocks, but thought it would be better to invest in the company $ASML ( ▼ 2.45% ) because they design the machines that $AMD needs to build their chip.

So, below… here are some concepts if I maintain the same logic, or as the young people say, “keep that same energy”

Here’s how that logic extends to other themes:

1. AI & Cloud Computing

• Hot stocks people chase: $NVDA, $MSFT, $GOOGL

• Picks & shovels play:

  • $ASML (chipmaking machines)

  • $TSMC (chip manufacturing)

  • $AMAT, $LRCX (semiconductor equipment)

  • $SNOW or $DDOG (cloud infrastructure/monitoring for AI demand)

2. Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Hot stocks: $TSLA, $RIVN, $LCID

• Picks & shovels:

  • $ALB, $SQM (lithium suppliers)

  • $LTHM (battery materials)

  • $ON, $NXPI (EV power semiconductors)

  • $BLNK, $CHPT (charging networks)

First, what is a Structural Change?

What do we see?

1. Large caps with good fundamentals, increasing profit, that aren’t “overhyped” continue to thrive.

2. When large caps are overextended, small/mid caps tend to catch volume.

3. 43% chance of a government shutdown…

So what’s the plan for the month? Will it be a time to buy? (private section)

We did buy $HOOD ( ▲ 3.09% ) shares at $42, 6 months ago.. NOW IT’S $104, with a high of $117. I expected this move would take 1 year.

Let’s say your average person who may have $400 to add $HOOD shares at $40.

• At $104 it would be worth $1,040

  • If you are a swing trader you can either Sell, or ride the wave (ups and downs) for 1-2 years) for either a higher price or so you can pay less taxes on your profits.

• This can easily scale because if you had more money to invest, say $2,000, it becomes $5,200.

My strategy as an investor and swing trader is to only swing trade stocks I would invest in. This theory makes it easy to be patient.

For example, If we buy 400 shares of x stock, we sell 200 at a certain price target and the rest stays invested. It’s smart to separate accounts. One for swing trading and investing.

Most people are not their yet, so for new market participants, just invest.

Free reads that will help you catch up on today’s market.

1. Job Reports

2. Next 14 days

3. Trump Tariff Update

Answering Questions That Will Make Our Readers Better.

1. Why is the market going up when the economy isn’t looking promising?

2. How to do trend line analysis in real-time?

Instagram post

View our standout swing trades here.

🧠 Macro Update: Why This Market Drop Isn’t the End of the World

So, markets dropped about 2.5% last week.
Cue the usual headlines:

But here’s my take:
Let’s not panic over a blip. These short pullbacks happen — and they don’t mean the sky is falling.

In this post, I’ll break down what’s really going on in the economy and what it could mean for you — without the jargon.

📉 What’s Actually Moving the Market?

There are 3 big things happening right now:

1. GDP (Economic Growth) looks strong — but it’s kinda fake

2. Inflation is heating up again

3. The job market is showing cracks

Let’s unpack each one.

💼 1. Gross Domestic Product Growth: Not As Real As It Looks

You might’ve heard that the U.S. economy is growing at 5%. Sounds great, right?

But here’s the trick: most of that “growth” came from a huge drop in imports — meaning we’re buying way less stuff from other countries.

And because of how GDP is calculated (Exports + Spending + Investment + Gov Spending – Imports), fewer imports = higher GDP on paper.

So yeah, the numbers look good… but they’re not telling the full story.
Real consumer spending and business investment are barely growing.

💸 2. Inflation: Still Sticking Around

• Prices rose 2.7% in June

• Core inflation (excluding food & gas) is up 3%

• Wages are rising ~4% a year

One big reason? Fewer workers.
We’ve lost 1.5 million foreign-born jobs, and fewer people are actively working.

That’s pushing wages up — and while that sounds good, it also pushes prices up across the board.

🧯 3. The Job Market: Slowing Down

• Only 35,000 jobs added per month lately — the lowest since 2010 outside the pandemic era.

• Most of those jobs? Healthcare.

• Other industries like construction and manufacturing? Flat.

The situation got so tense, the government fired the head of the jobs reporting agency last week. That’s… not normal.

🤔 So What Do We Do With This?

Here's my honest take:

I do think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
But whether that’s enough to turn things around? Still up in the air.

What’s likely?

• Growth stays slow

• Inflation stays higher than anyone would like

• Wages might cool off a bit as unemployment rises

• And without foreign workers in the mix, we may see:

  • Higher wages

  • Lower economic activity

  • Less tax revenue

  • More housing pressure

In short: it’s a weird time.

Foreign workers play a quiet but important role in keeping wages balanced and the economy growing steadily. Without them, we’re seeing some tricky side effects.

🧠 Final Thought

This isn’t the end of the market.
But it’s not all sunshine either.

Markets go through phases — some exciting, some messy.
What matters is keeping a cool head and looking at real context, not fear-driven headlines.

We’ll keep watching the data, the Fed, and key market levels — and I’ll keep breaking it down for you.

We alerted a new stock last week! See what it is by clicking here.

Not every market rewards aggression. Some years force you to be patient. Others reward bold positioning.

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This year?
We’ve leaned into what we call “passive-aggressive investing.”

That means:

• We invest passively in long-term winners using dollar-cost averaging

• We aggressively double down on strength — but only after confirmation

• We hold a small, strategic swing trade pool to scale into high-momentum names in winning sectors for profit during the year.

So how has this strategy played out?

🚀 Two Standout Winners:
Block Inc $XYZ ( ▼ 2.43% )  
Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 3.09% )  

✅ $XYZ ( ▼ 2.43% )  

• What they do: A decentralized infrastructure platform offering encrypted payments, creator wallets, and blockchain authentication.

• Just added to the S&P 500, fueling massive inflows and volume.

• Our position:

  • Started buying at $57

  • Added at $59.66

  • Now trading at $72+ 🔥

• Options swing:

  • We bought $60 January 2027 Calls at $18.20 ($1,820/contract)

  • Those same contracts are now worth $2,400+, up ~32%

  • They should be $13+ in the money, and could be worth $4,000–$4,200+ per contract as early as this week if momentum holds

✅ $HOOD — Robinhood

• Alerted at: $41

• Now trading at: $109 — a +165% gain

• Catalysts: Explosive growth in options & crypto volumes, shift in retail investor sentiment, and several analyst upgrades

• We positioned early — not just based on technicals, but narrative shifts. This was one of our highest conviction trades of 2025.

📊 Portfolio Performance Recap (2025 Picks)

✅ Winning sectors: e-commerce, Chinese tech, EVs, fintech
🚧 Lagging: cannabis, speculative Chinese EVs, microcaps

🧠 What This Teaches Us

Some trades are slow. Some explode. And some need to be cut loose.

But our edge isn't about predicting everything — it's about adapting with logic.
This year, that meant buying incrementally, stacking into strength, and reserving cash for only the best setups.

We’re not just picking stocks — we’re building conviction.
And now, we’ve got proof that the strategy is working.

We alerted a new stock last week! See what it is by clicking here.
Logic. Discipline. Results. That’s the SWS way.

— Simplify Wall Street