Good Morning,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Analysis

• TQQQ Positions

• TQQQ weekly Roadmap

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Recap — What Happened Last Week?

October ended on a difficult note for Wall Street, particularly for technology stocks. Investors continued questioning whether the enormous amount of money being invested in artificial intelligence will generate sufficient returns. At the same time, persistent inflation, elevated Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty kept pressure on market sentiment.

What stands out to me is that the market is becoming increasingly selective. Investors aren't necessarily abandoning stocks, but they're becoming less willing to pay premium valuations for companies promising strong future growth without demonstrating how that growth will translate into profits.
The major indexes struggled, with the Nasdaq experiencing the greatest pressure, while smaller companies showed relative strength.

What moved the markets last week?

AI spending and technology earnings: This was the biggest story. Microsoft reported strong cloud growth, but disappointing results and spending concerns at Alphabet and Amazon weighed heavily on technology stocks. Intel plunged nearly 29% on Friday following weak guidance. Investors are increasingly asking whether AI-related spending will generate sufficient returns to justify current valuations.

The Federal Reserve: The Fed held its benchmark interest-rate range at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday. However, two policymakers favored an increase, reinforcing concerns that inflation could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.

Economic growth versus inflation: Third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4%, suggesting the economy remains resilient. However, annual PCE inflation increased to 3.6%. That's an uncomfortable combination for investors hoping the Fed will lower interest rates soon.

Oil and geopolitics: Crude oil remained above $100 per barrel as tensions involving Iran continued. Elevated energy prices create additional inflation risks, particularly through transportation and manufacturing costs.

Treasury yields and sector rotation: The 10-year Treasury yield declined to approximately 4.93% as investors sought safer assets. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 outperformed the Nasdaq, suggesting that money was rotating away from some expensive technology companies rather than leaving equities altogether.

 My Thoughts:

I've been discussing the possibility of market weakness for several months, particularly as we approach the midterm elections. The recent technology selloff certainly reinforces that caution.

But here's what I don't want investors to overlook: The broader market isn't necessarily falling apart. It's becoming more selective.

Corporate earnings remain relatively healthy, economic growth is positive, and smaller companies have started attracting buyers. At the same time, elevated energy prices, persistent inflation, and questions about AI spending remain significant risks.

My outlook remains neutral to cautious in the short term. I'm watching whether technology stocks can stabilize, whether Treasury yields remain under control, and whether the improvement in market breadth continues.

For long-term investors, I would focus on diversification and patience. For active traders, this is a week to respect volatility, especially with elections, earnings, and Friday's employment report on the calendar.

Sometimes the best opportunity comes from waiting for the market to show its hand rather than trying to anticipate every move.

My TQQQ Positions:

• Long TQQQ

• Sold Nov 6th, 66 Calls

• Sold Nov 6th, 58 Puts

TQQQ Weekly Roadmap:

To the point, the SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway:

TQQQ is showing early signs that the recent selling pressure may be slowing. The 130-minute stochastics are oversold and curling upward, while price has bounced from the important $60.08 support level.
That creates the potential for a short-term recovery, but the broader trend remains under pressure.
Above $64.97, the recovery could strengthen toward $66.54–68.80. Below $60.08, downside risk increases toward $57.59–57.70.
For the week ahead, I'm watching whether buyers can turn an oversold bounce into a sustained recovery. Until we see that confirmation, patience remains important.

Three scenarios for the upcoming week:

Bullish recovery: TQQQ holds $60.08 and breaks above $64.97, followed by $66.54 and $67.41. A stronger move could carry prices toward the expected high of $68.80 and resistance near $69.82.

Neutral consolidation: TQQQ trades between $60.08 and $66.54, allowing oversold momentum to recover while buyers attempt to establish a base.

Bearish continuation: A sustained break below $60.08 would weaken the recovery case and bring $57.59–57.70 into focus, followed by $54.93 if selling accelerates.

Additional Analysis:

The slight decline in VIX suggests broad-market volatility expectations have eased marginally, but conditions remain uncertain. TQQQ's expected move of approximately 8.8% indicates the potential for significant swings in either direction.

Technical and gamma levels:

$74.29 Higher technical resistance
$72.44 Resistance near HVL
$69.82 Intermediate resistance
$68.80 Expected-move high
$67.41 Technical resistance
$66.54 HVL 0DTE vicinity / technical resistance
$64.97 First major resistance / 1D Max vicinity
$63.25 Monday reference
$60.08 Major technical and gamma support
$57.70–57.59 Expected-move low / technical support
$54.93 Deeper downside support

Two particularly interesting areas emerge from this week's analysis.
On the upside, $67.41–68.80 represents an important recovery zone, with the expected-move high just below the next resistance at $69.82.
On the downside, $57.59–57.70 is a notable confluence between the expected-move low and an existing technical support level.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold

28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.

So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.

This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.

Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.

See how other owners are doing it at Kalshi.com/hedging

Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Analysis

• My TQQQ Positions

• TQQQ Weekly Roadmap

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Analysis

Market Recap — What Happened Last Week?

Well, it looks like winter may finally be knocking on the door.

After several weeks of resilience, Wall Street experienced a significant selloff last week, led by technology and artificial intelligence stocks. The Nasdaq declined 4.5%, its worst weekly performance since June, while the S&P 500 fell 1.9%. Interestingly, the Dow managed to finish higher, suggesting investors weren't necessarily abandoning stocks altogether. Instead, money was rotating away from some of the market's biggest winners.

Three developments drove much of the weakness: hotter-than-expected inflation, renewed concerns about the enormous amount of money being invested in AI, and another sharp increase in crude oil prices.

What catches my attention is that the companies responsible for much of this year's market gains are now leading the decline. That doesn't necessarily mean the bull market is over, but it does suggest investors are becoming more selective about what they're willing to pay for future growth.

The NASDAQ Composite fell 4.5% last week

What Moved Markets Last Week?

1. Inflation Is Moving in the Wrong Direction

Wednesday's Consumer Price Index showed September inflation rising 3.7% year over year, compared with 3.4% in August. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.6%.

Energy was a major contributor, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% during September.

Thursday's Producer Price Index added to the concern. Wholesale prices increased 1.3% for the month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022.

Why does this matter?

Because persistent inflation makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and increases the possibility of additional rate hikes.

Higher borrowing costs can slow consumer spending, reduce corporate profits, and put pressure on stock valuations.

2. AI Spending Is Facing a Reality Check

Artificial intelligence has been one of the strongest investment themes of the past several years. But last week, investors began asking a more difficult question.

When will all this spending generate enough profits to justify the investment?

Companies are committing enormous amounts of capital to data centers, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure. Much of that spending is being financed with debt.

That concern became particularly visible in CoreWeave, whose shares declined approximately 25% during the week as investors questioned the financing behind AI infrastructure expansion.

Semiconductor stocks also struggled, despite encouraging results from some industry leaders.

I continue to believe AI represents a significant long-term opportunity. However, there's an important difference between believing in a technology and believing that every company associated with it is attractively valued.

3. Oil Prices Are Adding to Inflation Concerns

Crude oil moved sharply higher as tensions involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy infrastructure raised renewed concerns about global supply.

WTI crude finished Friday around $101.41 per barrel, while Brent approached $110.

Higher oil prices matter because they don't just affect what we pay at the gas pump. They also influence transportation costs, manufacturing expenses, and eventually consumer prices.

That creates another challenge for the Federal Reserve.

I'll be watching developments between Washington and Tehran closely. Iran reiterated Sunday that its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains available, but significant disagreements remain.

A credible diplomatic breakthrough could reduce some of the geopolitical premium in oil. Additional escalation could push prices higher.

4. Treasury Yields and Market Rotation

Despite the hotter inflation reports, Treasury yields declined during the week as investors sought the relative safety of government bonds.

The 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.1%, still elevated enough to create challenges for stock valuations.

Meanwhile, healthcare, consumer staples, and energy held up better than many technology stocks.

This is an important distinction. Investors weren't simply selling everything. They were reconsidering where they wanted to take risk.

When money moves away from high-growth companies and toward more defensive businesses, I pay attention.

It doesn't guarantee a correction, but it often signals that investor confidence is becoming more cautious.

What Might Move Markets This Week?

The coming week could be especially important because earnings season moves into high gear.

After last week's technology selloff, investors will be looking for companies to demonstrate that their earnings and future growth can justify current valuations.

The Federal Reserve is also approaching its October 27–28 policy meeting. Officials are in their pre-meeting communications blackout period, making incoming economic data and market expectations particularly important.

What I'm Watching

Bullish: Strong earnings and encouraging guidance from major technology companies help restore confidence in AI spending. Treasury yields stabilize, oil prices ease, and buyers return to growth stocks.

Neutral: Earnings are generally supportive, but investors remain cautious about valuations and interest rates. Markets consolidate following last week's decline.

Bearish: Technology earnings disappoint, oil prices continue climbing, or investors increase expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. That combination could create further pressure on the Nasdaq and smaller companies.

My primary focus will be the market's reaction to earnings, particularly Meta and Tesla, along with movements in Treasury yields and crude oil.

My Final Thought — Winter Is Coming?

For several months, I've been discussing the possibility of market weakness, particularly during the seasonally challenging period leading into a midterm election.

I've used the phrase "Winter Is Coming" to describe those concerns.

Last week's market action certainly makes that warning more relevant.

But here's something I want to emphasize.

A difficult week doesn't necessarily mean the bull market is over.

The S&P 500 remains positive for the year, and corporate earnings expectations are still relatively strong. However, elevated interest rates, rising energy prices, and concerns about AI profitability are creating a more challenging environment.

For long-term investors, this is a reminder of why diversification and patience matter. For active traders, it's a reason to respect volatility and avoid chasing every short-term bounce.

I'm particularly interested in whether the Nasdaq can stabilize, whether smaller companies begin participating again, and whether earnings provide enough confidence to bring buyers back into technology.

Until then, my outlook remains cautious, with a neutral-to-bearish short-term bias.

I'm not suggesting investors abandon their long-term plans. I'm suggesting they remain disciplined, understand the risks, and recognize that markets don't move higher in a straight line.

Sometimes, protecting the gains you've already made is just as important as finding the next opportunity.

My TQQQ Positions

TQQQ closed at $68.21 (trading at $70.85 Premarket)

Oct 23 72 strike calls were sold at 1.25

Oct 21 74 strike calls were sold for 1.04

Oct 23 64 strike put were sold at 1.24

TQQQ Weekly Roadmap

Week of October 19–23, 2026 | 130-Minute Technicals + EOD Gamma + Expected Move + VIX

 TQQQ enters the week around $70.93 following last week's sharp selloff. The 130-minute stochastics remain near oversold territory, while VIX has climbed to 19.99, indicating increased market uncertainty.

The latest gamma chart reinforces a cautious outlook. Several important resistance levels now sit between $70 and $75, while the options market is pricing in a weekly expected move of ±$5.17, or approximately 7.58%.

My outlook remains bearish, with the possibility of a short-term oversold bounce. The first challenge for buyers is reclaiming $70.86 and then $72.83.

Updated technical and gamma confluence

The most important levels are now:

The strongest overhead confluence is between $72.83 and $74.79, where technical levels overlap with gamma support/HVL references. Because price is below these levels, they may act as resistance during a recovery.

The chart also shows a separate premarket indication of $70.86, above the $68.25 last-price marker. That suggests an attempted recovery, but premarket indications are not confirmation of a sustained breakout.

Three scenarios for the week

Bullish — Oversold recovery

TQQQ reclaims $69.58 and holds above $70.86. The next targets become $72.83, $73.28 and the expected-move high of $73.42.

A sustained breakout above $73.42 would put $74.29–74.79 in focus.

Neutral — Stabilization

Price consolidates between $67.44 and $70.86 as momentum attempts to recover. A stable or declining VIX would be supportive, but buyers still need to reclaim the overhead gamma levels.

Bearish — Selling continues

Failure below $68.01 and $67.44 exposes $66.59, followed by $64.89.

A break below $64.89 could bring the expected-move low of $63.08 into play.

Momentum and volatility

130-minute stochastics: Both lines are near the oversold region, suggesting a possible bounce. However, the indicator has not yet established a convincing upward momentum reversal.

VIX: 19.99: This is substantially higher than the previous week's 14.85 reading. Elevated volatility may support richer option premiums but also increases the potential for large directional moves.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway

Following last week's selloff, the key question is whether TQQQ can establish a bottom or whether the decline has further to run.

Above $70.86, the recovery could extend toward $72.83–73.42. Below $67.44, the risk shifts toward $64.89 and potentially $63.08.

With VIX near 20 and the expected weekly move above 7.5%, I would remain cautious about selling short-dated puts until the price action shows stronger evidence of stabilization.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

Weather decides your harvest. Now you can hedge it.

For US food and farm businesses.

A heat wave, a cold snap or a storm can cost you a season, and none of it is in your control.

So take a position on Kalshi on the weather that would hurt you. If it happens, the payout offsets the loss. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good harvest was the point.

Big agribusinesses have hedged weather and crops for decades through brokers and futures. Kalshi opens that up to small farms and food businesses, with contracts starting at a few dollars.

Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange.

See how farms hedge

Good morning,

In this Newsletter:

• To the point: my thoughts

• Equity Options to English Dictionary

• Income Generating Options Roadmap

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

To the point:

Fed outlook: An October rate hike looks unlikely, but December could still come back into play if inflation or energy prices stay elevated.

Sell-off risk: I still think we could see a broader pullback between now and month-end and into the midterm-election period.

Mid-Week thoughts:

What Happened

Markets have struggled this week, with Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report adding to the pressure. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Nasdaq dropped 1.9%, and Dow slipped 0.1%, with AI and semiconductor stocks taking the biggest hit.

Why It Happened

Inflation, oil, and interest rates remain the big drivers. September inflation reached 3.7%, Brent crude climbed above $106, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5.3% before easing. Investors are also questioning whether AI spending can justify current valuations, while expectations for another Fed rate hike have increased.

What's Next

Thursday brings PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and Taiwan Semiconductor earnings. Friday follows with industrial production and import-price data. These reports should give us a better picture of inflation, consumer spending, and the economy as Q3 earnings season gathers momentum.

What I'm Watching

For me, it's still oil, Treasury yields, and market breadth. We've talked about weakness developing beneath the major indexes, and Wednesday's sell-off reinforces that concern. I still believe a broader pullback is possible as we approach the midterm elections.

Final Thought

The market is facing a tug-of-war between earnings expectations, inflation, and interest rates. We don't need to predict every move, but we do need to understand what's driving the market and manage our risk accordingly.

Equity Options to English Dictionary:

Call Option: Right (not obligation) to buy a stock at a set price before a certain date.

→ It's like a coupon letting you buy stock at a discount if its price rises.

Put Option: Right (not obligation) to sell a stock at a set price before a certain date.

→ Like insurance for falling stock prices.

Strike Price (Exercise Price): The agreed price at which the stock can be bought (calls) or sold (puts).

→ Think: the “deal price” written in the contract.

Expiration Date: The deadline to use the option. After this, it disappears.

→ Think: like milk—good until the expiration date, then worthless.

Premium: The cost you pay to buy the option contract.

→ Think: the “ticket price” for your trading seat.

Intrinsic Value: How much the option is “in the money” right now.

→ Example: Stock is $55, strike is $50 (call) → Intrinsic = $5.

Extrinsic Value (Time Value): The extra value from time left until expiration + volatility.

→ Think: the “hope” or “maybe” part of the price.

In the Money (ITM): The Option has real value if exercised right now.

- Call ITM: stock price > strike.

- Put ITM: stock price < strike.

Out of the Money (OTM): Option has no real value right now—only hope.

- Call OTM: stock < strike.

- Put OTM: stock > strike.

At the Money (ATM): Stock price ≈ strike price.

→ The option is right on the fence.

Option Chain: The full menu of all available strikes, expirations, and prices for a stock’s options.

→ Think: the restaurant menu for option traders.

Contract Size: Each option contract = 100 shares of stock.

→ If a call costs $2, you actually pay $200.

Open Interest: The total number of active contracts that exist and haven’t been closed.

→ Tells you how popular that option is.

Volume: How many contracts were traded today.

→ A snapshot of activity and liquidity.

The Greeks: Risk-measuring tools for options:

- Delta = sensitivity to stock price.

- Gamma = sensitivity of Delta.

- Theta = time decay.

- Vega = sensitivity to volatility.

- Rho = sensitivity to interest rates.

Assignment: When the other side of the contract decides to exercise, and you’re forced to deliver.

→ If you sold a call and get assigned, you must sell the stock at the strike.

Exercise: Actually, using your right to buy/sell the stock at the strike price.

→ Example: Using your call option to buy stock cheaper than the market stock price.

Covered Call: Selling a call option while owning the stock.

→ A way to earn extra income, like renting out your shares.

Cash-Secured Put: Selling a put while keeping enough cash aside to buy the stock if assigned.

→ A way to get paid while waiting to buy stock at your price.

Spread: An options trade that combines two or more contracts to shape risk/reward.

→ Example: Buy the $50 call, sell the $55 call = capped risk and capped reward.

Income Generating Options Trading Roadmap (TQQQ)

TQQQ closed at $74.12, and at the time of this writing it is trading around $71.42, down about 3.6% from last night’s close.

Right now, the gamma data is not giving us a clear signal, so I’m putting more weight on the daily technical chart. The 130-minute chart is showing too much noise in this price range to be especially useful.

Key support levels I’m watching are $69.58, $68.01, $66.49, with lower support around $64.87 and $63.16.

My plan is to stay active and manage the drawdown rather than just sit through it. I’m buying back lower-value covered calls that I’ve already sold and looking to resell calls at lower strikes as the price moves down.

For now, I’m being patient with adding more shares. I’ll likely start increasing my position later in the month, probably closer to the final week, depending on how the market and these support levels develop.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Analysis

• TQQQ Positions

• TQQQ Weekly Roadmap

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Assessment: Cautiously bullish, with underlying weaknesses.

The major indexes showed resilience last week, but the divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks remains concerning. Elevated Treasury yields, oil prices, and questions about AI capital spending continue to create risks.

The key question is whether corporate earnings can support current valuations and broaden market participation.

Week ahead Roadmap

Bullish Scenario

Inflation moderates, Treasury yields stabilize, earnings exceed expectations, and market breadth improves. This could support another move higher.

Neutral Scenario

Earnings are generally supportive, but yields remain elevated and participation stays narrow. Markets consolidate with two-way volatility.

Bearish Scenario

Inflation surprises higher, oil prices accelerate, or earnings guidance disappoints. Rising yields could trigger renewed selling in growth stocks.

What I am watching

The most important indicators this week will be inflation reports, bank earnings, semiconductor demand, the 10-year Treasury yield, oil prices, and whether small-cap stocks begin participating in the rally.

My final thoughts

I've been talking about "Winter Is Coming" for several months, and although the major indexes remain resilient, I'm still seeing reasons to be cautious underneath the surface.

That doesn't mean I'm expecting an immediate selloff. It means I want to see confirmation from earnings, market breadth, and Treasury yields before becoming more aggressive.

Sometimes the market rewards patience just as much as conviction.

TQQQ - Current Position

I’m currently long TQQQ, with the Options contracts sold:

Oct 16th 80, 83 Calls, 80 Puts

Oct 19th 84 Calls

TQQQ Weekly Roadmap

Week of October 12–16, 2026

TQQQ enters the week around $81.28 after pulling back from the $85 area. The 130-minute stochastics are recovering from oversold conditions, while the VIX at 14.85 suggests a relatively calm market. However, the bulls still need to reclaim key resistance before we can call this a sustained recovery.

Key Levels to Watch

What stands out is the alignment between our technical levels, gamma positioning, and expected move. The $84.81–85.34 area represents significant overhead resistance, while $77.75–78.33 is an important downside zone.

What I'm Watching This Week

Bullish: A move above $82.63 could open the door toward $83.74 and eventually $84.81–85.34.

Neutral: TQQQ consolidates between $80.37 and $82.63 while momentum improves.

Bearish: A break below $80.37 could bring $79.66, $78.33 and the expected-move low of $77.75 into play.

For Covered-Call Sellers

The October 16 $85 call currently shows an approximately 81% platform-estimated probability of profit. That strike sits just above the expected-move high and near major technical and gamma resistance.

For Cash-Secured Put Sellers

The October 16 $78 put shows an approximately 80% platform-estimated probability of profit. The strike sits near our lower expected-move boundary and technical support.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway

My outlook remains neutral with the possibility of a bullish recovery. The two areas I'm watching most closely are $84.81–85.34 resistance and $77.75–78.33 support.

For option sellers, the goal isn't simply collecting premium. It's finding strikes where the expected move, technical levels and gamma positioning align—while making sure the potential reward justifies the risk.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold

28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.

So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.

This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.

Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.

See how other owners are doing it at Kalshi.com/hedging

Good morning,

In this Newsletter:

• To the point

• Question: what are ETFs and ETFs in the US

• Income Generating Options’ Roadmap, TQQQ

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

• TQQQ has slipped below the 82.60 pivot, and if it doesn't reclaim that level, I could see a move toward the 80–78 range later this week.

• Rates and oil: The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, along with oil prices, are still major forces driving market sentiment.

• AI and the Megacap Tech firms ( Mag7) are still doing much of the heavy lifting and helping keep the major indexes elevated.

• Q3 earnings: With Q3 earnings season approaching, the market is setting up for a tug-of-war between earnings growth, consumer spending, oil prices, and interest rates.

• Fed outlook: An October rate hike looks unlikely, but December could still come back into play if inflation or energy prices stay elevated.

• Sell-off risk: I still think we could see a broader pullback between now and month-end and into the midterm-election period.

A friend in India recently asked me about using U.S. ETFs to invest in the American market, which led to this week’s quick lesson. ETFs are a simple way to get broad-market, sector, or income exposure, and the ones I highlight are simply some of my personal favorites—not necessarily the best choices for everyone.

A stock ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a type of investment fund that holds a collection of stocks and is traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. Stock ETFs aim to replicate the performance of a specific index, sector, or theme by holding a diversified portfolio of individual stocks.

Key Features of Stock ETFs:

Diversification: Stock ETFs provide exposure to a broad range of stocks in a single investment, helping spread risk across multiple companies and sectors.

Trading Flexibility: Unlike mutual funds, which are bought and sold at the end of the trading day at the net asset value (NAV), stock ETFs can be bought and sold throughout the trading day at market prices, just like individual stocks.

 Lower Costs: Stock ETFs typically have lower expense ratios than actively managed mutual funds. Since many ETFs are passively managed (they track an index), management fees are generally lower.

Tax Efficiency: ETFs are often more tax-efficient than mutual funds due to their unique structure, which minimizes capital gains distributions to investors.

Transparency: Most ETFs regularly disclose their holdings, allowing investors to see exactly what securities are included in them.

Variety: Many different stock ETFs are available, each with its own focus. These can include broad market indices (like the S&P 500), specific sectors (like technology or healthcare), geographic regions (like emerging markets), investment styles (like growth or value), and thematic investments (like clean energy or artificial intelligence).

Liquidity: Because ETFs trade on stock exchanges like stocks, they offer liquidity, allowing investors to buy or sell shares throughout the trading day.

Stock ETFs can be a versatile tool for investors who want stock market exposure while benefiting from ETFs' diversification and lower costs.

QQQ is primarily about growth. You get concentrated exposure to many of the largest Nasdaq companies, but very little income.

SPY is the more diversified choice. It owns roughly 500 large U.S. companies across the economy and historically provides a smoother ride than QQQ. State Street Global Advisors

JEPQ and GPIQ are different. They own growth-oriented stocks but also sell call options to generate monthly income. That income can help cushion volatility, but there is a trade-off: when the Nasdaq explodes higher, the options strategy can give up some upside. JPMorgan

QQQ = Growth

SPY = Diversification

JEPQ = Growth + Higher Income

GPIQ = Growth + Higher Income with a newer track record

Over the last three years, QQQ produced the strongest return, but JEPQ still averaged nearly 22% while producing substantial monthly income. That shows an ETF can be designed for a completely different purpose—not simply to beat an index.

Income Generating Options’ Trading Roadmap

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

TQQQ closed at $83.62 but at the time of this writing its trading at 81.57 before the Thursday market open.

Combined Analysis (Gamma Levels and 130 min chart Technicals)

from 10/8/2026

The key takeaway is that $84.60–85.15 is now the primary resistance band. That is where your technical analysis and gamma structure are almost sitting on top of each other.

Bullish: A clean break and hold above $85.15 opens the door toward $88.02.

Neutral: TQQQ gets rejected in the $84.60–85.15 zone and consolidates back toward $82.60.

Bearish: A rejection at $84.60–85.15 followed by a loss of $82.60 shifts attention back to $80.10, then $78.75–78.27.

For this week, the most important levels as:

1. $84.60–85.15 — major resistance confluence
2. $82.60 — breakout support / pivot
3. $80.10 — strongest lower confluence support
4. $88.02 — next upside target if $85.15 breaks

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Recap/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Gamma + Technical Analysis combined

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Markets finished mixed last week as investors balanced higher interest rates, elevated oil prices, weaker employment data, and continued AI optimism. The Nasdaq outperformed while rising Treasury yields pressured other areas of the market. Friday's weaker jobs report provided some relief by reducing expectations for another immediate Fed rate hike.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway: AI and technology remain market leaders, but higher rates are creating a tougher environment. This is a market where being selective matters more than chasing momentum.

What Might Move Markets This Week

This week, I'm watching interest rates, the Fed, and oil. The ISM Services report, Fed meeting minutes, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment could influence expectations for the next Fed move. Third-quarter earnings are also beginning to pick up.

The 10-year Treasury yield remains especially important. If yields settle down while earnings stay healthy, stocks could find support. If yields push higher again, expect more pressure on high-valuation technology and growth stocks.

Bottom line: Watch the Fed, yields, oil, and the early earnings reports.

My thoughts

Winter Is Coming—Has It Already Arrived Under the Hood?

For several months, I’ve been borrowing that familiar line from Game of Thrones: “Winter is coming.” With September’s historically weak seasonality and 2026 being a midterm election year, I’ve been watching for a possible selloff. Looking at September’s results, some parts of the market certainly felt the chill.

SPY and QQQ both finished the third quarter higher, but September tells a different story. QQQ gained 3.32%, while SPY slipped just 0.33%. Under the hood, financials fell 7.14%, consumer discretionary dropped 6.44%, and consumer staples lost 4.53%. Energy, health care, and communication services also declined. All six sectors we reviewed finished September lower, even as QQQ moved higher.

That’s why I keep reminding myself to look beyond the headline indexes. A strong index doesn’t mean everything inside the market is doing well. For several sectors, winter may already be here. What I’m watching now is whether that weakness spreads to the market leaders—or whether the struggling sectors begin to recover and join them.

Seasonality gives us context, but it doesn’t dictate what happens next. Markets have often strengthened after midterm elections as uncertainty eased. Stay thoughtful, keep learning, and pay attention to what’s happening beneath the surface.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices), Ten Year Bond Ylds and Oil prices

• TQQQ

•  I’m currently long TQQQ, with an October 9th 78 and 84 strike covered calls

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $81.10

• Wait for lower Support levels to execute a buy-write

• Or wait for lower levels to sell puts (CSEP)

  Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

• Higher resistance levels at 82.60

• Lower support levels at 80.11, 80.07, 79.70, 78.75 and 76.61

• Stochastics are around the 80 pct line from below; thus, TQQQ is approaching overbought levels

• At 15.30, the VIX is relatively low, suggesting traders are expecting fairly calm market conditions and limited short-term volatility. A low VIX can signal confidence, but it can also mean the market is becoming complacent.

TQQQ 130 Min chart & End-of-Day Gamma Level analysis – I am combining both styles of analysis to bring you one consolidated roadmap. If this is too much information please let me know.

Combined Analysis

My consolidated map

Above 82.60: bullish breakout zone → watch 83–84
80.00–82.60: likely consolidation / battle zone
79.70–80.00: first meaningful support
78.75: major lower support
Below 78.75: opens the door toward 76.61–75.50

For your setup, I would treat 80.00 and 82.60 as the two most important levels on the entire chart. Those are where your technical analysis and gamma positioning overlap most clearly.

Additional analysis details

For details read below:

The most important upside level is now 82.60. That is not just technical resistance it sits right inside the gamma resistance cluster. If TQQQ can break and hold above 82.60, the next logical area is roughly 83 to 84, with the 1-day max near 84 acting as the next major ceiling.

The most important pivot is 80.00–80.11. We have two technical support levels at 80.11 and 80.07, and the gamma structure is also concentrated right around 80.09. That makes this the clearest near-term line in the sand.

Below that, 79.70 and then 78.75 line up with the lower gamma support band. If price loses 78.75, the chart becomes more vulnerable because the next stronger support area is much lower, toward 76.61 / 75.5.

Stochastics + VIX context

Your stochastics near 80 suggest TQQQ is approaching an overbought area, so that reinforces the idea that 82.60 may be difficult to clear on the first attempt.

At the same time, a VIX around 15.30 suggests relatively calm conditions. That generally supports a more controlled, range-bound market rather than a violent breakout — but it also means there is some complacency. If VIX starts rising while TQQQ loses the 80 area, downside moves could accelerate faster than the current chart suggests.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good evening,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Recap/Market Movers

• Current Position and Roadmap

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Chart and Gamma Levels analysis

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

U.S. stocks finished higher last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, the Nasdaq rising 2.1%, and the Dow up 0.3%. Technology and AI-related stocks led the move, while lower oil prices early in the week eased inflation concerns and supported market sentiment.

The bigger concern remains interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved near its highest level since 2007, while investors increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. Oil prices and developments in the Middle East also remained important drivers of both inflation expectations and market volatility.

Bottom line: Stocks held up well despite higher yields, with AI enthusiasm continuing to support the Nasdaq. Going forward, the key question is whether rising rates begin to outweigh strong technology-sector momentum.

What Might Move Markets This Week

This week could be much more data-driven. The biggest focus will be on inflation and jobs, starting with August PCE inflation and ADP employment data on Wednesday, followed by manufacturing data Thursday and the September jobs report on Friday. Investors will be looking closely to see whether inflation is still running hot enough to keep the Federal Reserve in a tightening posture.

There is also a heavy schedule of Federal Reserve speakers, which could add volatility if officials reinforce expectations for additional rate hikes later this year. At the same time, Treasury yields remain an important pressure point for growth and technology stocks.

What I’m watching: Core PCE, payroll growth, the unemployment rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, and whether AI/technology stocks can keep leading if rates move higher.

Final Thought: The market still has strong momentum, particularly in technology, but this week’s inflation and employment numbers could quickly change expectations for Fed policy. Stay focused on the data rather than the day-to-day noise.

Stocks I am watching this week (positions I most likely have or will be trading)

TQQQ - Current Position & Roadmap

I’m currently long TQQQ, with an October 2 $81 covered call and an October 2 $76 short put.

TQQQ is trading near $79.60, between key support around $78 and a major gamma wall/resistance near $81.

My plan: If TQQQ stays between $78–$81, I’m comfortable letting time decay work in favor of the option positions. A sustained move above $81 would challenge the covered call and signal a stronger bullish breakout. If $78 support fails, I’ll watch the $76.75–$76 area closely, where my short put could come into play.

For now, $78 and $81 are the key levels defining the range.

Educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $79.60

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

Higher levels at 80.60, 81.12

Lower levels at 77.66, 76.57, 74.89

21 Day Moving Average at 76.91; above this level is bullish.

Stochastics curled over and are now around 66.74%, sloping down. For CSEPs, I would wait for lower levels. VIX was very complacent at 14.87.

The VIX, often called the market’s “fear gauge,” measures how much volatility investors expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days based on options pricing.

At 14.87, the VIX is relatively low, suggesting traders are expecting fairly calm market conditions and limited short-term volatility. A low VIX can signal confidence, but it can also mean the market is becoming complacent.

For traders, the VIX is useful because it gives a quick read on market fear, expected volatility, and option pricing. When the VIX rises, options generally become more expensive, and market swings tend to increase. When it falls, options generally become cheaper, and price action tends to be calmer.

 TQQQ 130 Min chart & End-of-Day Gamma Level analysis

Chart Analysis

Bullish scenario:
$80 breaks → $81 Gamma Wall breaks and holds → ~$82.50 becomes the next area to watch.

Neutral/chop scenario:
TQQQ remains trapped between approximately $78 and $81. Given the gamma levels, I wouldn't be surprised to see price gravitate around this range until a catalyst forces a move.

Bearish scenario:
$78 fails → ~$76.75 becomes important → below that, $74.75 HVL becomes the larger downside reference.

For me, $78 and $81 are the two most important numbers on this entire chart.

And with the VIX around 14.87, you're starting from a relatively low-volatility environment. That can support orderly price action, but it also means a volatility expansion could produce a faster move once TQQQ finally breaks out of this $78–$81 zone.
The short-term structure is mildly bullish, but TQQQ hasn't proven the breakout yet. Above $81 = much more interesting bullishly. Below $78 = caution. Between them = likely chop/consolidation.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Recap/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Gamma Information

• Newbie Section: What would I do if I was just starting out? This will be published on Wednesdays moving forward. This will be great for young people as well as older individuals getting started. 

Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Last week was ultimately positive for stocks, with technology leading the way. The biggest catalyst was NVIDIA, which beat expectations and delivered strong guidance, reinforcing the idea that AI spending remains alive and well. NVIDIA jumped sharply following the report, helping lift the Nasdaq and the broader AI trade. Salesforce also surged after strong results, partly tied to AI demand.
The counterweight was inflation and the Fed. PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.7%, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, suggesting additional rate hikes could be necessary. That pushed bond yields higher and prevented the market from fully running away to the upside.

What may move the market this week

This is a jobs-and-AI week. The big things I'm watching are:

• Friday's Jobs Report: This is the main event. A strong labor report or hotter wage growth could increase expectations for another Fed hike; a weaker report could ease some of that pressure.

• ISM Manufacturing & Services: We'll get another read on economic growth, employment, and inflation pressures.

• Broadcom Earnings: After NVIDIA's strong report, Broadcom becomes another important test of whether AI infrastructure spending remains strong.

• Treasury Yields: With the Fed sounding more hawkish, rising yields could put renewed pressure on QQQ, TQQQ and high-valuation technology stocks.

• Iran & Oil: Any major development around Iran or the Strait of Hormuz could quickly move oil prices, inflation expectations, and the broader market.

 SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway

AI fundamentals look strong, but the Fed remains the problem. NVIDIA gave the bulls what they wanted, but persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed mean the market still has to contend with higher rates.
For me, Friday's jobs report and Treasury yields are the two biggest things to watch this week. If yields settle down, technology could continue higher. If the jobs report reignites rate-hike fears and yields spike, I'd expect more volatility—especially in QQQ and TQQQ.

My thoughts

Getting a bit cautious here, I still want to raise cash on rallies and surgically manage the options that i have sold. September is upon us and seasonally a very weak month.

We also have another Fed meeting on Sep 19^th. In the last three midterm election cycles, we had a 10% S&P 500 sell-off in mid-August into September. Around options expiration, or around September 16th or 19th, in prior midterm cycle years. I'm keeping an eye on these time frames this year, just in case the market follows the past and we get a sell-off from the highs. Maybe get a “Wrecktember”.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ: sold 71 and 73 strike calls for Sep 4th.

• IREN: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• CIFR: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• INTC: sold 91 calls for Aug 31st – this became a problem stock

• AMDL: sold 52 calls for Sep 11th

• SKHY: sold 160 strike calls for Sep 4th

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $71.85

Over the last few weeks, the strategy has been very similar. When TQQQ moves up, I move my calls to higher strikes and continue capturing more premium. In cases where TQQQ has fallen, I have rolled down from the current strike expiration date to the following one or two weeks out, and I've lowered my strike calls while still capturing premium. I'm just managing the calls that have been sold

  Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart, my levels my thoughts)

• Higher levels at 71.55, 72.08, and 74.21

• Lower levels at 71.55, 70.75, 69.73, and 69.09

• *** These levels may not hold to the downside, so I would wait until the stock touches them before selling CSEP. Best to wait for these levels.

• 21 Day Moving Average at 71.55; trading below this level is a bearish trend.
  Stochastics went over the 80% line and is now sloping downward, indicating possible weakness. For purchases or CSEPs I would wait for lower levels and the Stochastics to bottom out and slope upwards from below the 20% line

• VIX is at 14.43. This is a very low reading level, where any bad news can increase the VIX, which in turn raises option premiums (calls and puts). The market is not expecting anything really bad with this, and thus something expected or unexpected can shake the market up

Let's review Gamma levels for this week (beta).

Trading Strategy for TQQQ

I'm waiting for lower levels on the 130-minute chart before getting more aggressive. I'm also watching gamma levels closely this week.

The market feels increasingly nervous. While we're still seeing rallies on certain days, there are signs that institutional investors may be reducing exposure while retail investors continue buying the dips.

For now, I'm not interested in chasing the market higher. I'd rather stay patient, keep cash on the sidelines, and be prepared to take advantage of better opportunities if we see additional weakness.

Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Be patient, know your levels, and let the market come to you.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good evening,

In this Newsletter:

• Compounding Interest, what is it?

• Mid week thoughts

• Income Generating Options Update

• Mid-week thoughts

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Lesson 2: Compounding Interest

The Secret Sauce of Long-Term Wealth

Compounding interest is when you earn interest on your interest, not just your original deposit. It’s what makes your money grow faster over time, turning small savings into serious wealth.

Why It Matters:

Compound interest rewards patience and consistency. It’s not about timing the market—it’s about time in the market.

Related Concepts:

· Compounding → Reinvesting the interest you earn, so it begins earning more interest

· Compounding Period → How often interest is added (daily, monthly, yearly—more is better)

· APY (Annual Percentage Yield) → Shows you how much you’ll earn in a year with compounding included

Quick Takeaway: The more frequently your interest compounds, the faster your money grows—even if the rate is the same.

Quick Example:

Let’s say you invest $1,000 at 8% interest for 30 years:
• Simple Interest (compounded once annually): You’ll end up with $3,400
• Compounded Monthly: You’ll grow to a whopping $10,935.73

Same rate. Same starting amount. Just more frequent compounding. That’s the power of exponential growth!

Why Compounding Builds Wealth:

· It rewards early starters—the earlier you begin, the longer you benefit

· It works best with consistency—even small monthly contributions can lead to big gains over time

· It highlights why long-term investing usually beats short-term trading

Action Steps:

· Log into your bank or investment account and check the APY on your savings or money market funds

· Compare options: Are you getting daily, monthly, or annual compounding?

· Research better accounts: Some high-yield online savings accounts offer 4%+ APY with daily compounding

Final Thought:

Compound interest is the engine that turns financial discipline into long-term results. Start early, stay consistent, and let time do the heavy lifting.

 Mid-Week thoughts

As I sit here watching the market close, a few things stand out to me.
First, bond yields are not giving the all-clear. Treasury yields remain elevated, and that tells me the market is still worried about inflation, rates, and what the Fed may do next.
Second, oil remains a major risk. WTI and Brent continue to move higher, and the geopolitical situation is not improving enough for me to ignore it. Higher oil can quickly feed into inflation expectations, push yields higher, and pressure stocks.
Third, earnings season is almost behind us. Strong earnings helped drive the market higher, but with most of Q2 earnings now complete, we have to ask:
What is the next catalyst?
That matters because the S&P 500 is still relatively close to its highs, and it may not take much bad news to create a pullback.

What am I watching?

The biggest things on my screen right now are:

• VIX — If it starts pushing from the mid-teens toward 19–20, I expect larger and faster market swings.

• Oil — Continued strength in crude could become a bigger problem for inflation and yields.

• Treasury yields — If yields keep climbing, growth and tech stocks could come under pressure.

• Fed commentary and Jackson Hole — Any shift in tone could quickly move markets.
  Late-August and September seasonality — Historically, this can be a more difficult stretch for stocks.

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $70.47 on Aug 26th. Looks like it's going to open 2 pts higher ( at 7:47 AM CST).

Current Position:

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Sep 4th, 71 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Sep 4th, 74 strike Calls

Will roll out and up out of the Sep 4 calls into future calls as we approach Friday

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

Higher Resistance levels at 71.55, 72.08 and 74.21

Lower support levels at 70.75, 69.73, 69.09 and 68.28

21 Day Moving Average at 71.55; trading above this level is bullish.

* At the time of this writing

Gamma Levels and GEX information (beta):

Trading Strategy

I’m not trying to predict the next move.
I’m letting the market come to me.
For stocks and ETFs I already own, I’m continuing to manage my options positions actively.

If a stock moves higher and gets close to my covered-call strike, I may look to roll the call higher and possibly farther out in time.

If the stock pulls back and my call moves farther out of the money, I may look to roll the call lower to potentially collect additional premium.
The same idea applies to puts.

My goal is simple:

Manage the options. Protect the position. Let price create the opportunity.

And remember:

Low VIX usually means lower option premiums.
Higher VIX usually means richer option premiums.

Action Plan for Investors

For active investors and traders, this is what I would be focused on:

Do not chase extended moves.

Watch the VIX, oil, and yields together.

Keep cash available for better entries.

Review covered calls and puts before volatility expands.

Know your key support levels before the market gets there.

If you’re a long-term investor, stay consistent with DCA instead of reacting emotionally to headlines.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway:

The market is still holding up, but the risk under the surface is growing.

Oil is higher.
Yields remain elevated.
The VIX is low enough to expand quickly.
And several major catalysts are coming.

That doesn’t mean the market has to fall.

It means this is a time to stay disciplined, manage risk, and be ready rather than reactive.

I’ll also post the key market and gamma levels I’m watching below so we have a better roadmap into the next trading sessions.

Stay patient. Let price come to you.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Recap/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• TQQQ Gamma Information (beta)

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Last week was a risk-off week, particularly for technology. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, and the Dow declined 0.8%, snapping the S&P and Nasdaq's three-week winning streaks.

The biggest drivers were rising Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and renewed uncertainty in Iran/Middle East. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly reached its highest level since 2007, while higher oil prices revived inflation concerns. Those higher yields hit expensive technology and semiconductor stocks particularly hard.

Consumer concerns also surfaced after Walmart fell sharply following earnings, adding pressure to retail stocks. Markets did recover somewhat on Friday as stronger business activity data and solid corporate earnings helped buyers return.

Last week's weakness was primarily driven by oil, bond yields, and geopolitics, rather than by a sudden deterioration in corporate earnings.

What may move the markets this week:

 This is a big week for the market, especially for technology and AI stocks. The three events I'd focus on are:

• NVIDIA Earnings — Wednesday after the close
  This is probably the biggest individual market catalyst. Investors will focus on AI demand, data-center spending, margins, and guidance. With semiconductors under pressure last week, a strong NVDA report could help reignite the AI trade; disappointing guidance could pressure the entire Nasdaq.

• PCE Inflation + GDP — Wednesday morning
  The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and updated Q2 GDP arrive before the market opens. A hotter PCE reading could push Treasury yields higher and hurt growth stocks; cooler inflation could provide some relief.

• Jackson Hole — Thursday through Saturday
  Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments will be closely watched for clues about where interest rates are headed. This is especially important after the recent surge in long-term Treasury yields.
  Other important earnings include Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Marvell, Workday, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, providing additional insight into AI spending and consumer health.

SmartMoneyIQ Take
Wednesday is the day to circle. We get inflation and GDP in the morning, followed by NVIDIA earnings after the close. Then attention shifts immediately to the Fed and Jackson Hole.
I will be watching NVDA, PCE, and Treasury yields. Those three could determine whether last week's tech selloff becomes a buying opportunity or develops into a deeper pullback.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ: sold 72.5 and 73 calls for Aug 28th and Sep 4th. I rolled the 21st calls down a few strikes and captured more premium

• IREN: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• CIFR: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• INTC: sold 95 calls for Aug 28th – this became a problem stock

• AMDL: sold 50 calls for Aug 28th

• SKHY: sold 165 calls for Aug 28th

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $76.79

I got called away on more of my Covered calls on Friday, Aug 15th. I will be looking to enter the market at lower levels using two possible strategies.

• Wait for lower Support levels to execute a buy-write

• Or wait for lower levels to sell puts (CSEP)

  Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

TQQQ closed at $71.17

Over the last few weeks, the strategy has been very similar. When TQQQ moves up, I move my calls to higher strikes and continue capturing more premium. In cases where TQQQ has fallen, I have rolled down from the current strike expiration date to the following one or two weeks out, and I've lowered my strike calls while still capturing premium.  I'm just managing the calls that have been sold

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

• Higher levels at 71.55, 72.08, and 74.21

• Lower levels at 70.75, 69.73, 69.09, and 68.28 ***

• ***These levels may not hold, so I would wait until the stock touches them before selling CSEP. Best to wait for these levels.

• 21 Day Moving Average at 72.08; trading below this level is a bearish trend.

• Stochastics are near the 20% line from above; thus, TQQQ is approaching an oversold area but not much; it needs a few more days

• VIX is at 15.13. This is a low level where any bad news can increase the VIX, which will also raise option premiums (calls and puts). 

Let's review Gamma levels for TQQQ this week (beta).

Trading Strategy for TQQQ

I'm waiting for lower levels on the 130-minute chart before getting more aggressive. I'm also watching gamma levels closely this week, especially with several major market-moving events coming Wednesday before and after the bell, followed by the Fed Chair speaking later in the week. One of the biggest questions remains: AI. Will companies continue to spend aggressively on AI infrastructure and CapEx, and, more importantly, are they beginning to see a meaningful return on that investment?
The market feels increasingly nervous.

While we're still seeing rallies on certain days, there are signs that institutional investors may be reducing exposure while retail investors continue buying the dips. For now, I'm not interested in chasing the market higher. I'd rather stay patient, keep cash on the sidelines, and be prepared to take advantage of better opportunities if we see additional weakness.
Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Be patient, know your levels, and let the market come to you.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good evening,

In this Newsletter:

• Friday morning thoughts

• What is the VIX?

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

 Friday morning thoughts:

The Market Is Holding Up — But the Risk Is Building

As I sit here Thursday afternoon watching the market close, there are a few things that are really jumping out at me.

First, I’m watching the bond market closely. Treasury yields are not behaving the way I would like to see, and to me, that’s a warning sign worth paying attention to.

Second, oil and the geopolitical situation remain major risks. WTI and Brent continue to move higher, and conditions around the Strait are not showing enough improvement to take that risk off the table. Higher oil can feed inflation expectations, put upward pressure on yields, and ultimately create another headwind for stocks.

Third, we’re reaching the tail end of Q2 earnings season. Strong corporate earnings have been one of the major catalysts helping drive this market higher. With most of those earnings now behind us, the question becomes:

What is the next catalyst that pushes stocks higher?

That doesn't mean the rally is over. But with the S&P 500 still relatively close to its highs, it may not take much bad news to shake some confidence out of this market.

Keep an Eye on the VIX

The VIX has spent the past couple of weeks in the 14–16 range, reflecting relatively low expected volatility.

But that can change quickly.

If we see the VIX move from around 16 toward 19 or 20, I would expect a much more volatile trading environment. Remember, a rising VIX doesn't mean stocks simply go straight down. It generally means larger and faster price swings — up, down, and sometimes both in the same session.

That's where traders need to be especially careful about chasing moves.

How I'm Managing My Trades

I'm continuing to manage my options positions based on what the market gives me.

When a stock moves higher and approaches one of my covered-call strikes, I may look to roll the call higher — and sometimes farther out in time.

If the stock falls and my call moves comfortably out of the money, I may look at rolling the call down to capture additional premium. Depending on pricing, I may even keep the same expiration.

The same principle applies when I'm managing puts.

The important point is that I'm managing the options and the underlying stock as separate pieces of the overall strategy. The stock is the asset, and the options give me another tool to potentially generate income and manage the position around it.

And remember this simple rule of thumb:

Low VIX = generally lower option premiums.
Higher VIX = generally richer option premiums.

There are many other factors involved in option pricing, but volatility is an important piece of the puzzle.

What I'm Watching Next

We're heading into an important stretch of the calendar with Federal Reserve commentary, Jackson Hole, geopolitical developments, oil prices, bond yields, and late-summer seasonality all capable of moving markets.

August and September have also historically been challenging months, so I'm not interested in trying to predict exactly where the market goes next.

I'm watching. I'm managing risk. And I'm letting the opportunities come to me.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway

The market is still holding up, but several potential pressure points are building underneath the surface.

Oil. Yields. Inflation. Volatility. Geopolitics. The Fed.

None of these individually guarantees a market pullback. But together, they give me enough reason to stay disciplined rather than chase a market that's already had a strong run.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. And remember — you don't always have to predict the next move to be prepared for it.

SmartMoneyIQ content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment or financial advice.

The VIX: Understanding the Market’s Fear Gauge
The VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” measures how much volatility investors expect in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days.
The VIX is calculated using prices of S&P 500 (SPX) options. When investors become nervous and demand more protection, option premiums generally rise—and the VIX tends to rise with them.
How to Read the VIX

VIX Level What It May Tell Us

SmartMoneyIQ Tip

A rising VIX doesn't automatically mean stocks are going down. It means the market expects larger price swings.

However, sharp increases in the VIX often occur during market declines because investors are buying options for protection.

How the VIX Affects Options

Here's the simple relationship:

Higher VIX → Generally Higher Option Premiums

Lower VIX → Generally Lower Option Premiums

When volatility rises, the market expects stocks to make larger moves. That uncertainty increases the value of options, so both calls and puts can become more expensive, all else being equal.

Why Does This Matter?

When the VIX Is Higher

Option premiums are generally richer.

This can benefit option sellers using strategies such as:

• Covered Calls

• Cash-Secured Puts

• Credit Spreads

• Iron Condors

You may collect more premium, but remember:

Higher premium usually comes with higher risk.

The market is paying you more because it expects larger price movements.

When the VIX Is Lower

Option premiums are generally cheaper.

This can mean:

• Less premium for option sellers

• Lower prices for option buyers

• Smaller expected market moves

• A generally calmer market environment

What Is IV Crush?
Suppose you buy an option when implied volatility is very high.
Then volatility suddenly falls.
The value of your option can decline even if the stock barely moves.
This is commonly called IV Crush.
That's why understanding volatility is important when trading options. You aren't only trading the direction of the stock—you are also paying attention to time and volatility.

VIX vs. Individual Stocks
There's one important distinction.
The VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, not an individual stock.
Stocks such as NVDA, TSLA, or PLTR have their own implied volatility (IV).
The VIX can help you understand the overall market environment, while a stock's IV tells you more about the volatility being priced into that particular stock's options.

SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway
Higher volatility generally means more expensive options. Lower volatility generally means cheaper options.
For option sellers, higher volatility can mean more premium—but also more risk.
For option buyers, higher volatility usually means paying more for the option.
Don't just ask where the stock might go. Ask what volatility you're paying—or getting paid—for.

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at

Current Price: $70.54

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold for Aug 28th, 72.5 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold for Sep 4th, 73 strike Calls

• TQQQ: 75/73 Credit Put Spread that I will roll into future weeks

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Higher Resistance levels at 70.75, 71.55 and 72.18

• Lower support levels at 69.73, 69.09 and 68.28

• 21 Day Moving Average at 72.01; trading below this level is bearish. 

Trading Strategy

• Waiting for a pullback down to ( 68-ish) and trade Buy-Writes to average into TQQQ. Collecting Premium and getting called away is the strategy

• Or selling CSEP below 68 for 1 to 2 weeks out

With some cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics bottoming out, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good Afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Recap/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Last week was a mixed but ultimately positive week for stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 0.1%, and the Dow falling 0.6%. The Russell 2000 actually outperformed, rising 1.1%, as the rally broadened beyond mega-cap technology. The S&P 500 also managed to hit another record high during the week.

The biggest driver was inflation. July CPI came in relatively tame at 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation eased to 2.5%. Thursday's PPI report also showed wholesale inflation cooling. Together, those reports eased fears that the Federal Reserve would need to raise rates again in September, helping Treasury yields decline and supporting growth and technology stocks.

AI remained a major source of strength, with semiconductor and technology names helping push the market to new highs. However, Friday brought some caution after retail sales unexpectedly declined, raising questions about whether the consumer and broader economy may be starting to slow. Oil also remained volatile as uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence energy prices and inflation expectations.

 SmartMoneyIQ Takeaway

Overall, last week was constructive for the market. Cooling inflation, lower expectations for another Fed hike, and continued AI strength kept the bulls in control. The concern now is whether consumer weakness begins to outweigh the benefits of lower inflation.
For the week ahead, I would keep a close eye on Treasury yields, oil/Iran headlines, the health of the consumer, and the AI trade, particularly as we move closer to NVIDIA's August 26 earnings report.

My thoughts

Cautiously optimistic this week, I will still want to raise cash on rallies and enter the market on dips. We are getting close to the August monthly OPEX (Options expiration) and NVDA earnings on Aug 26th. We also have another Fed meeting on Sep 19^th. In the last three midterm election cycles, we had a 10% S&P 500 sell-off in mid-August, around options expiration, or around September 16th or 19th, in two other midterm cycle years. I'm keeping an eye on these time frames this year, just in case the market follows the past and we get a sell-off from the highs.

These are the levels I'm watching:

S&P 500: made a new high last week

Nasdaq Composite: 26,274 (record close)

TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ: sold 76 and 78 calls for Aug 21st and 28th and a 21st 75/73 put credit spread

• IREN: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• CIFR: small position and just holding (looking for exit)

• INTC: sold 108 calls for Aug 21st

• AMDL: sold 63 calls for Aug 21st

• SKHY: sold 165 calls for Aug 21st

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $76.79

I got called away on more of my Covered calls on Friday, Aug 15th. I will be looking to enter the market at lower levels using two possible strategies.

• Wait for lower Support levels to execute a buy-write

• Or wait for lower levels to sell puts (CSEP)

  Key Reference Levels on TQQQ (130 min chart)

• Higher levels at 77.08, 77.94, and 78.33

• Lower levels at 75.89, 75.06, and 74.21

• 21 Day Moving Average at 74.40; trading above this level is a bullish trend.

• Stochastics are around the 80 pct line from below; thus, TQQQ is approaching overbought levels

• VIX is at 14.25. This is a low level where any bad news can increase the VIX, which will also raise option premiums (calls and puts). 

Let's review Gamma levels for this week (beta).

Trading Strategy for TQQQ

 With cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics heading lower towards 20 pct, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

Bullish Entry Thesis: Buy dips to GEX 1 ($75) or Lower Band ($70.74) with stops below HVL ($71.50) for swing trades targeting Call Resistance ($80) or Risk Trigger ($82.84)

Bearish Trigger: Breakdown below Put Support ($71) with volume would negate Swing Model structure and signal regime shift

Position Sizing: Moderate due to seasonality headwind; increase allocation only on confirmed breakout above $80 with volume

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good evening,

In this Newsletter:

• NVDA: What should I do with my NVDA?

• CPI (Consumer Price Index) - Released today

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Mid-week thoughts

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

NVDA: “What should I do with my NVDA”?

This was one of the questions that was asked by one of our community members. What should I do with my NVIDIA?

The core NVIDIA story remains intact: AI infrastructure spending is still growing rapidly, and NVIDIA remains at the center of that buildout. In its most recent quarter, NVIDIA generated a record $81.6 billion in revenue, up 85% year over year, while Data Center revenue surged 92% to $75.2 billion. Management guided the following quarter to approximately $91 billion in revenue, showing that demand continues to expand even from an enormous base.

• AI spending isn't slowing yet. Major technology companies continue committing enormous amounts of capital to data centers and AI infrastructure. Reuters recently estimated Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle could collectively spend roughly $750 billion on data centers in 2026.

• NVIDIA owns more than just the GPU. CUDA software, networking, systems and its broader AI ecosystem make switching away from NVIDIA harder than simply buying a competing chip.

• Blackwell to Rubin provides another upgrade cycle. NVIDIA is already transitioning customers toward its next-generation Rubin architecture, keeping the product roadmap moving rather than relying on one generation of chips.

• The financials remain extremely strong. NVIDIA maintained roughly 75% non-GAAP gross margins last quarter while producing enormous earnings and cash flow.

The next catalyst is close. NVIDIA reports its next quarterly results on August 26, which should give us an important update on AI demand, margins, Blackwell/Rubin, and forward guidance.

What Would Make Me Reconsider?

There are real risks. Valuation expectations are high, Chinese semiconductor competition is increasing, export restrictions remain a wildcard, and investors are beginning to question whether the enormous amounts being spent on AI infrastructure will ultimately generate sufficient returns.

 SmartMoneyIQ Take

This is not a recommendation to buy/ hold or sell. Instead, I want to give you a balanced view of how I would look at this from a financial educational standpoint.

For me, NVDA remains a hold rather than a stock I'd want to trade in and out of based on every headline. Revenue and Data Center growth remain exceptional, the AI infrastructure cycle is still expanding, and NVIDIA continues to be one of its biggest beneficiaries.

The bigger question isn't whether NVIDIA has already gone up a lot. It's whether the underlying earnings and AI demand continue to justify the valuation. As long as those fundamentals remain intact, pullbacks may be opportunities rather than reasons to abandon the position.

August 26 earnings will be the next major checkpoint.

•  What is the CPI (Consumer Price Index)?

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Inflation Check

• Why it matters: Inflation eats your money. CPI tells you how much prices are rising (or falling) on groceries, gas, and rent

• Where to find it: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

• When: 15th to the 21st of every month

• One of the most watched numbers in the financial world

What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Why Does It Matter?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that tracks inflation, basically, how much the prices of everyday goods and services are rising (or falling) over time. It’s reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) every month and is one of the most watched numbers in the financial world.

Why Should You Care About CPI?

CPI affects everything—your groceries, gas, rent, stock market moves, and even the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates.
If CPI is high, → Inflation is rising → Everything gets more expensive → The Fed might raise interest rates.
If CPI is low, → Inflation is cooling → Prices are stable or falling → The Fed might lower interest rates.

Example: If CPI jumps 7% in a year, that means your $100 grocery bill last year now costs $107, and your paycheck might not keep up.

How is CPI Measured?

CPI looks at the price changes of a “basket” of goods and services that average Americans buy, including:

Food & Groceries (Milk, eggs, meat, coffee)
Gas & Energy Costs (Gasoline, electricity, heating)
Housing Costs (Rent, mortgage expenses)
Healthcare (Doctor visits, prescription drugs)
Transportation (Car prices, public transit costs)
Entertainment & Services (Movie tickets, travel, personal care)
The BLS tracks prices across different cities and compares them to previous months and years to see if inflation is rising or falling.

CPI vs. “Core CPI” – What’s the Difference?

• Headline CPI – Measures all price changes, including food and energy.

• Core CPI – Excludes food and energy, since these prices tend to be more volatile.

Why it matters:
The Fed often watches Core CPI because food and gas prices can be temporary spikes, while core inflation shows longer-term trends.

Example: If gas prices surge due to a supply issue, Headline CPI might look scary, but Core CPI could still be stable.

How CPI Affects You and Your Money

• High CPI means higher prices, so your money buys less.

• If inflation rises, the Fed may hike interest rates, increasing costs for loans and credit cards.

• Stocks can fall after a strong CPI report and rise if CPI cools.

• Social Security and some wages adjust with changes in CPI.

Final Thought: CPI is the Economy’s Thermometer

Watching CPI helps you understand inflation, plan your finances, and predict market trends. If the CPI is rising rapidly, you may want to budget more wisely, invest prudently, and be prepared for potentially higher interest rates.

CPI: Today’s release notes:

CPI Update — Good News for the Market

Today's July CPI report was relatively market-friendly. Headline inflation rose just 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations, while the annual inflation rate eased to 3.4% from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which removes food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

The biggest contributor to July's increase was shelter, while lower gasoline prices helped keep headline inflation contained. The important takeaway is that today's report didn't provide evidence of a new inflation surge, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise rates at its September meeting. (Reuters)

 SmartMoneyIQ Take

I'd characterize this as a Goldilocks CPI report: inflation is still too high, but it's moving in the right direction and wasn't hot enough to force the Fed's hand. Stocks initially responded positively, Treasury yields moved lower, and expectations shifted further toward the Fed holding rates steady in September. (Reuters)

For QQQ, TQQQ and NVDA, that's generally a favorable backdrop because lower rate expectations tend to support growth and technology valuations. The wildcard remains oil and Iran—a renewed spike in energy prices could show up in future inflation reports even though it wasn't a major factor in July's CPI.

Bottom line:  CPI = Market Positive, but not an “all clear.”

 Mid-Week thoughts

The markets have had a nice rebound off the Leopold low, and it looks like memory stocks and semi stocks have caught a bit as of late. Some bigger names like the Mag 7s have done quite well and are still in the spotlight. However, we are entering the seasonally low time frame from August into September or sometimes into October. I'd be cautious of rallies. I'd be selling into rallies and waiting for much lower prices to get into quality stocks. I'm not predicting a sell-off, but it seasonally occurs. In a midterm year, anything is possible going into the elections.
I suspect we did make some new highs on SPX. QQQ has not followed suit, but I do suspect it is going just a little higher here on good news. Again, the geopolitical scene is still the bugaboo for inflation.
Warning for TQQQ: this could mean anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or have some stops in place.
For those of you who are long-term holders or investors, implementing dollar-cost averaging methodology is not a bad idea. Either monthly or a dollar amount. You can just continue to buy periodically over the long haul and don't have to pay too much attention to the market's whipsawing. This is a prudent way to build an investment portfolio.

Keep your powder dry. Be prepared to get into quality stocks if we see a seasonal downdraft in mid to late August into September.

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at

Current Position: $74.60

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 14th, 67 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 14th, 76 strike Calls

• TQQQ: CESP Aug 14th 73 strike Puts & Aug 21st 72 strike Puts

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Higher Resistance levels at 74.89, 75.89 and 77.06

• Lower support levels at 74.21, 73.35 and 72.19

• 21 Day Moving Average at 72.69; trading above this level is bullish. 

Trading Strategy

• Waiting for a pullback down to (72 -73) and trade Buy-Writes to average in or sell Puts lower. Collecting Premium and getting called away is the strategy

• Keep rolling Calls higher

With some cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics bottoming out, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

Gamma Levels and GEX information (beta):

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

Good morning,

In this Newsletter:

• What may move the markets/My thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Movers

This week's focus is on inflation and the consumer, with several key reports that could drive market direction.

•  CPI (Wednesday): The biggest event of the week. A cooler inflation reading could boost stocks, while a hotter report may pressure the market and push interest rates higher.

•  PPI (Thursday): A look at wholesale inflation and another clue about future price pressures.

•  Retail Sales (Friday): A measure of consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.

•  AI Earnings: Investors will be looking for updates on AI spending and data center demand, which could influence technology stocks.

SmartMoneyIQ Take

This week's inflation data will likely set the tone for the market. Cooler inflation could support another rally, while hotter-than-expected numbers may bring back volatility. My approach remains the same: stay patient, don't chase rallies, and look for quality opportunities on pullbacks.

 My thoughts

We made new highs in the SPX, but the QQQ’s did not make new highs. As stated over the last few weeks, I felt like the “market would make new highs before we retreat into the Seasonal Aug/Sep time frame that is historically weak. I would not be surprised to see a sell-off that could be 5 to 10% off the highs. Warning for TQQQ: this could mean anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or have some stops in place.

The market is indicating a bullish appetite currently; however, the Economic News (CPI and PPI) Inflation gauges can change the inflation outlook this week, which can pressure the market if higher than expected.

Seasonally, August and September are the two weakest months of the year. And we also have another Fed meeting in mid-Sep. That may add volatility to the markets in either direction.

Cautiously optimistic this week, but I will still want to raise cash on rallies and enter the market on dips.

These are the levels I'm watching:

• S&P 500: made a new high last week

• Nasdaq Composite: 26,274 (record close)

• TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold for Aug 21^st, 75 and 76 strike Calls

• IREN: small position and just holding

• CIFR: small position and just holding

• INTC: – sold 104 calls for Aug 14th

• AMDL: small position and just holding

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $74.47

Current Position:

Long (own) TQQQ, Breakeven at 78.77
Rolled into TQQQ Aug. 21st calls at strikes: 75 at a price of 3.41
Rolled into TQQQ Aug 21st calls at strikes: 76 at a price of 3.50

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ ( 130 Min chart)

Current close: 74.47

• Higher levels at 74.89, 76.03, and 76.33

• Lower levels at 74.21, 73.35, and 72.18

• 21 Day Moving Average at 70.83; trading above this level is a bullish trend.

• Stochastics at the 80 pct line from below; thus, TQQQ is approaching overbought levels

• VIX is at 14.90, so it is more bullish than bearish here

Trading Strategy

With cash on hand, I am waiting for a sell-off. If we don’t get down to some of the lower levels with the Stochastics heading lower towards 20 pct, I will manage current positions with rolls into following weeks’ expirations as price(s) allow.

 Gamma Levels and GEX information (beta):

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good afternoon,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Summary/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Last week, the market found its footing after two weeks of selling, with the Dow gaining 1.0%, the S&P 500 rising 1.1%, and the Nasdaq leading the way with a 1.6% gain. Investors looked past geopolitical concerns and focused on a strong wave of corporate earnings, while optimism around AI helped technology stocks rebound.

One of the biggest drivers was Big Tech earnings. Several companies delivered results that reinforced the long-term AI growth story, giving investors confidence to buy back into technology after the recent pullback. At the same time, the market continued to monitor the Federal Reserve, as policymakers suggested interest rates could remain higher for longer if inflation doesn't continue to cool.

Geopolitical headlines also remained in focus. Tensions involving Iran eased late in the week after planned military action was called off, helping calm energy markets. Oil prices remained volatile, but investors viewed the reduced geopolitical risk as a positive for equities.

SmartMoneyIQ Take

The market reminded us once again that earnings still matter. Strong corporate results and continued enthusiasm for AI were enough to overcome concerns about interest rates and geopolitics. While the longer-term trend remains constructive, volatility is likely to stay elevated as investors continue weighing Fed policy, inflation, and the next round of economic data. My approach remains the same: don't chase extended rallies—let quality stocks come back to your price levels and continue generating income while you wait.

My thoughts (same for now)

SmartMoneyIQ Outlook – Late Summer to Early Fall, still maintaining last week’s thoughts for now

Big Picture

Big Picture Outlook – “Keep It Simple Stupid”!
At this point, thus far into the year, I suspect the market to make some new highs over the next 4 to 6 weeks, and then, when that happens, I would not be surprised to see a sell-off- could be 5 to 10%. Warning for TQQQ: this could mean anywhere from a 15% to 30% drawdown, so either have some cash available or have some stops in place.
Going into the fourth quarter, maybe even starting in early October, we enter the best 6-month phase of the year and the market rallies into the new year. Seasonally, August and September are the two weakest months of the year. What I'm thinking is to be a little more cautious on chasing rallies and raising cash when possible
These are the levels I'm watching:
S&P 500: 7,620 (record close)
TQQQ: $87.02 (record close)

If these levels are broken on strong volume and broad market participation, it would be another bullish signal for the market. If the indexes approach these highs but fail to break through, expect traders to watch for profit-taking or a short-term pullback.
For those of you who are long-term holders or investors, implementing dollar-cost averaging methodology is not a bad idea. Either monthly or a dollar amount. You can just continue to buy periodically over the long haul and don't have to pay too much attention to the market's whipsawing. This is a prudent way to build an investment portfolio.
Bottom line: Keep your powder dry and hedges handy. If we get that late-summer flush, I’ll be looking to reload for a Q4 run-up—just not before the storm passes.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 7th, 64 & 65 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 14th, 67 strike Calls

• CIFR: small position and just holding

• INTC: waiting for better days

• AMDL: Covered Calls sold Aug 7th, 67 strike Calls 

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $64.62

Current Position:

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 7th, 64 & 65 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Covered Calls sold Aug 14th, 67 strike Calls

• TQQQ: Iron Condor for Aug 7th, 67/69 Calls & 55/52 Puts

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

The market is volatile; however, it has been in a range, so I have just been making money by managing my sold calls for the past 5 weeks. This is how the income is made using Options.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Current close: 64.62

Trading Strategy

• Higher Resistance levels at 67.06, 69.76 & 71.09

• Lower Support levels at 62.87, 59.42 & 57.59

• 21 Day Moving Average at 68.62; trading above this level is a bullish trend. 

BMNR. Still in a long-term downtrend. I am out of BMNR at this point and may revisit this stock after a month or so, should ETH find a base and rally up some. I sold my positions to take a tax loss to offset other gains.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good morning,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Summary/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

Last week, the market took a breather after a strong run, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.6%, the Dow falling 0.4%, and the Nasdaq leading the decline, down 2.1%. Technology and AI-related stocks came under pressure as investors locked in profits ahead of a busy earnings week, while rising Treasury yields and renewed concerns over inflation added to the cautious tone.

The biggest headwind was the resurgence of Middle East tensions, which briefly pushed Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel before prices retreated later in the week. Higher oil prices revived inflation concerns and raised questions about how long the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated. At the same time, investors began rotating out of some of the year's biggest AI winners as they waited for earnings from the mega-cap technology companies.

Despite Friday's mixed finish—with the Dow higher, the S&P 500 little changed, and the Nasdaq lower—all three major indexes ended the week in the red. Investors remained focused on geopolitical headlines, rising bond yields, and the start of a critical earnings season.

SmartMoneyIQ Take

Last week's pullback wasn't driven by a collapsing economy—it was driven by uncertainty. Rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and profit-taking in technology created a healthy pause after an extended rally. With the Federal Reserve meeting, Big Tech earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon), and key inflation data all on deck this week, expect volatility to remain elevated. My approach remains the same: stay patient, don't chase rallies, and use pullbacks to identify quality entry opportunities.

My thoughts (same for now)

SmartMoneyIQ Outlook – Late Summer to Early Fall, still maintaining last week’s thoughts for now

Big Picture

Inflation risk: Oil at those levels would pour gasoline on prices, forcing the Fed’s hand and rattling equities.

Market reaction: I’d expect a sharp downdraft in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—think late-summer, early-fall chop with a possible low around October.

Year-end view: Even with a rough patch, earnings momentum and seasonality could still pull indexes higher into December. And we still have Mid-term year pullbacks possible.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ

• AMDL

• SKYH

• INTC

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $64.00

Current Position:

Long (own) TQQQ

• Sold TQQQ July 31st, 71 calls

• Sold TQQQ Aug 6th, 71 calls

• Sold TQQQ July 31st, 65 puts

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Current close: 64.00

• Also, there is resistance at the daily 21 EMA, which is currently at 71.95, but the EMA is moving lower, so EMA resistance is a moving target. TQQQ is below this level now. I expect weakness from here.

Trading Strategy

• Lower Support Levels at 62.87, 58.13 and 53.97.

• Actively working my sold calls to maximize premiums. I am not looing to add and size until TQQQ goes below 58

• May occasionally play some QQQ with puts to hedge downside moves

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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Good morning,

In this Newsletter:

• Market Summary/My Thoughts

• Stocks I’m monitoring

• Income Generating Options Trade Setup

• Know someone who’d enjoy this? Please forward this email and help a friend trade smarter too, tell them to click here Subscribe to SmartMoneyIQ

Market Summary

What Moved the Markets Last Week?

Last week, the market was driven by three factors: geopolitics, interest rates, and profit-taking. Renewed tensions between Iran and Israel pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and global energy supplies. A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report also reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, sending Treasury yields higher and putting pressure on technology stocks. After a powerful nine-week rally, many investors used the news as an opportunity to lock in profits, leading to a broad pullback in the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks.

 What Could Move the Markets This Week?

This week's focus remains on Middle East developments, oil prices, and the Federal Reserve. Any escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz could send oil higher and weigh on stocks, while easing tensions would likely support a market rebound. Investors will also be listening for Fed commentary after last week's strong jobs report and watching whether AI leaders like NVIDIA and Microsoft can regain momentum.

 SmartMoneyIQ Take

The market has shifted from chasing momentum to reacting to headlines. While the long-term trend remains constructive, higher oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and elevated interest-rate expectations suggest that patience is warranted. Rather than chasing rallies, I'm looking for pullbacks in high-quality names before putting new money to work.

My thoughts (same for now)

SmartMoneyIQ Outlook – Late Summer to Early Fall, still maintaining last week’s thoughts for now

Big Picture

Inflation risk: Oil at those levels would pour gasoline on prices, forcing the Fed’s hand and rattling equities.

Market reaction: I’d expect a sharp downdraft in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—think late-summer, early-fall chop with a possible low around October.

Year-end view: Even with a rough patch, earnings momentum and seasonality could still pull indexes higher into December.

Bottom line: Keep your powder dry and hedges handy. If we get that late-summer flush, I’ll be looking to reload for a Q4 run-up—just not before the storm passes.

 Stocks I am watching this week

• SPX and QQQ (indices)

• TQQQ

• SOXL

Income Generating Options Trading Set ups

TQQQ closed at $67.53

Current Position:

 Long (own) TQQQ

•  Sold TQQQ June 24th Strike Calls at strike: 74

•  Sold TQQQ June 24th Strike Calls at strike: 76

•  Sold TQQQ June 24th Strike Puts at strikes: 68

•  Sold TQQQ June 31st Strike Calls at strikes: 77

Let's review the possible trade setups for this week.

 Key Reference Levels on TQQQ

• Current close: 67.53

• On a 130 min chart: lower support at 64.94, 62.98 & 59.72

• On a daily chart: Lower support at 64.94, 62.78, 60.83 & 58.02

• Also, there is resistance at the daily 21 EMA, which is currently at 74.55, but the EMA is moving lower. TQQQ is below this level now. I expect weakness from here until we close over the 21 EMA.

• The Stochastics are sloping lower and not below the 20% line, so the market may continue lower. We need to see TQQQ at a lower support level and the stochastics to curl up above or through the 20% line.

Trading Strategy

• Waiting for a pullback down to support levels and and the stochastics to curl up, trade Buy-Writes to average into TQQQ. Collecting Premium and getting called away is the strategy

• we can also sell Cash Secured Puts at these lower levels to collect premiums and or buys the stock if it close below these strikes.

Please do your homework before investing.

Trade smart, stay grounded – see you next week.

-Sanjog

Note: This is not financial advice (NFA). Please consult a qualified financial advisor. This is my research and analysis, which I am sharing with you as part of my own work and for your educational benefit. I am NOT your advisor.

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