Happy Friday

The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and oil closed above $90. Both moved fast and both caught Wall Street off guard. Days like this are when it pays to slow down and look at what's actually happening vs. what the headlines want you to feel.

There's a lot of noise right now between the jobs miss, the Iran conflict, and crude ripping higher. Worth noting the heavy volume coming out of the indexes in the final hour today. That kind of late selling typically signals gap downs. I took some VXX to hold over the weekend and expect more red and volatility into next week.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. February Jobs Report Misses Big 
   
   We actually lost jobs in February. Nobody on Wall Street expected an outright contraction. Manufacturing, healthcare, leisure, and construction all shed workers. A 31,000-person Kaiser Permanente strike dragged healthcare down, but the weakness was broad. This is the fifth month of job losses in the last nine.

2. Oil Breaks $90 on Supply Destruction 
   
   Crude closed at $90.90 to cap off its biggest weekly gain in futures trading history. Trump posted on Truth Social that there will be no deal without Iran's unconditional surrender. Kuwait is shutting in production because their storage is completely full. Qatar's energy minister warned oil could reach $150 if the Strait stays closed.
   

3. BlackRock Gates Private Credit Fund BlackRock 
   
   $BLK limited withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund for the first time. Investors asked to redeem more than double the quarterly cap. Private credit has been one of the most crowded trades over the last two years. I'm watching closely to see if other major funds face similar liquidity pressure.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 18.35% )  
beat earnings expectations on heavy AI chip demand. Revenue came in at $2.22 billion. Management sees revenue growth accelerating every quarter next fiscal year.

Boeing $BA ( ▲ 4.08% )  
is reportedly negotiating with China for an order of 500 737 Max jets. A deal that size would be a major signal for both trade relations and Boeing's recovery.

Costco $COST ( ▲ 1.58% )  
posted a clean beat on retail sales and membership fees. Membership revenue hit $1.36 billion. The consumer is still spending at the warehouses.

Big Name Updates

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.31% )  
launched a publicly traded venture fund giving retail investors access to private companies like Databricks and Revolut. Shares opened at $25 and fell to $22 on day one.

Target $TGT ( ▲ 0.36% )  
is catching bids on its turnaround strategy. New leadership pushing store remodels and doubling the retail media network within five years. Golden cross on the chart with strong support at $99-$100.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.74% )  
announced a $300 million charge tied to layoffs and cost cuts across the company.

Other Notable Company News

CF Industries $CF ( ▲ 4.51% )  
hit a new 52-week high. Fertilizer stocks are running because more than a third of raw materials travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 3.52% )  
CEO Scott Kirby warned spiking fuel will take a real bite out of first-quarter results. Delta $DAL and Southwest $LUV fell in sympathy.

Western Alliance $WAL ( ▼ 8.46% )  
dragged regional banks lower. Every single stock in the KBE bank ETF finished red. The ETF fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November.

Ciena $CIEN ( ▼ 1.71% )  
upgraded to buy at Bank of America with a $355 price target. The analyst called the optical networking buildout a "super-cycle" running through 2027.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasurys whipped back and forth today. The ugly jobs print initially sent yields lower, but the crude rally quickly reversed that move on fresh inflation fears. The 2-10 spread widened to 57 basis points, which is why bank stocks got crushed. The bond market doesn't know what to price in first right now: a slowing economy or an energy shock.

Policy Watch

Fed 
Chicago's Goolsbee openly warned about stagflation today. He said piling an energy shock on top of tariff uncertainty could rival the big supply shocks of the past, and those tend to stick around. San Francisco's Daly said the jobs report "has got my attention" but stopped short of committing to cuts. The market now prices in only one or two cuts this year, down from three a week ago.

Iran & Energy Response 
Washington is scrambling to cool oil prices:

• Treasury eased Russian sanctions, letting India buy stranded crude and reopening transactions with Rosneft's German branch

• U.S. Development Finance Corporation announced a $20 billion reinsurance facility to get tankers moving through the Strait

• Trump pushing the Navy to escort oil tankers, though analysts question feasibility given the volume that normally passes through

Tariffs 
The legal fight is escalating. A trade court judge ordered the administration to refund more than $130 billion in collected tariffs. Twenty-four states filed a separate lawsuit challenging the new global tariff. After the Supreme Court ruling, Trump set a global rate at 10% then bumped it to 15% the next day.

Macro 
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker dropped to 2.1 from 3.0 on Monday. That's a model, not a forecast, but the direction is clear.

What to Watch

CPI Next Week 
Inflation data will land in a completely different context now. Any upside surprise locks the Fed in place. Any downside probably won't matter with oil where it is.

The Helium Squeeze 
Qatar's shutdown cuts off a third of the world's helium supply. Chipmakers need this gas for semiconductor manufacturing. All three of Qatar's production facilities are offline. Spot prices already climbing fast. If repairs take weeks, tech hardware supply chains face real bottlenecks.

Shipping Route Abandonment A.P. Moller-Maersk 
$AMKBY and Hapag-Lloyd suspended key Middle East container routes entirely. The U.S. is trying to stand up a reinsurance program and naval escorts for commercial ships. The question is whether tankers actually accept the escort or refuse the risk.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

No sugarcoating today. The economy just shed 92,000 jobs and oil is above $86 heading into the open. That's not a great combo no matter how you slice it. The Iran conflict is now day seven with no real end in sight and it's showing up everywhere, energy, sentiment, you name it.

I think the market has been holding up better than it should.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Has No Ceiling And No Policy Fix 

WTI topped $86. Brent is above $89. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut. Qatar declared force majeure after Iran hit Ras Laffan, and its energy minister said every Gulf exporter follows within days. The White House is throwing everything at this. India got a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude. Treasury looked at intervening in futures and backed off. Trump floated navy escorts but the volume math doesn't work.

2. February Payrolls Just Came In Negative 

The economy shed 92,000 jobs against a 58,000 gain expected. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4. Average hourly earnings came in hot at 0.4 month-over-month. That's a labor market cracking while wages refuse to cool. Retail sales also missed, down 0.2 against a 0.3 decline forecast.

3. The Rate Cut That Was Left Just Died 

A month ago markets were pricing a July cut. A week ago it slipped to October. After this morning's negative payrolls print with 0.4% wage growth and oil above $86, that last cut is gone. Fed funds futures are now pricing no cuts in 2026. The economy is slowing and inflation is reheating. That's math for stagflation. Waller and Daly both speak today and the market needs to hear something because right now the Fed has nothing good to say.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 18.35% )  

Beat Q4 with $2.22 billion in revenue and 80 cents adjusted earnings, both above estimates. Management said revenue growth accelerates every quarter in fiscal 2027 on data center demand. Bookings at record pace.

Samsara $IOT ( ▲ 19.54% )  

Raised full year guidance well above the Street. Sees 65 to 69 cents in adjusted earnings versus the 59-cent consensus and revenue of $1.97 to $1.98 billion versus $1.92 billion expected. AI workflow automation is the new pitch.

Gap $GAP ( ▼ 14.41% )  

Missed Q4 earnings by a penny at 45 cents on $4.24 billion in revenue. Athleta sales declined. Management flagged tariff pressure on the full-year outlook, which matters more than the penny miss.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  

Caught a new headline. U.S. officials are drafting export licensing rules for AI chips that could require government approval for most international sales. Not final yet. Retail keeps buying anyway. Vanda says $1.58 billion in net retail inflows over five days.

Occidental Petroleum $OXY ( ▲ 1.78% ), Exxon $XOM ( ▲ 0.3% ), and Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 0.02% )  

All catching a bid as domestic producers are the cleanest way to play a prolonged Hormuz closure. If crude stays above $85 these names have room to run.

Guidewire Software $GWRE ( ▲ 4.99% )  

Crushed Q2 estimates. Earned $1.17 adjusted versus the 77-cent consensus on revenue of $359 million versus $342 million expected. Under the radar insurance software name putting up blowout numbers.

What to Watch

Oil Into The Close 
Qatar said all Gulf exporters will halt shipments within days. If that holds, oil doesn't stop at $89. Watch whether energy stocks keep rising with crude or start fading. If they fade while oil keeps climbing, the market is betting this ends soon. If they move together, buckle up.

Trump-Xi Summit Setup (March 31 to April 2)
Bessent and He Lifeng are meeting in Paris before the summit. Soybeans and Boeing $BA aircraft are on the table. Beijing backed Tehran publicly and Washington just killed Khamenei. That's an awkward dinner.

AI Chip Export Controls 
U.S. officials are drafting rules that would require government approval before shipping AI chips to most countries. Big data center builds could need clearance at the national level. Nothing is final but if this moves forward it changes where AI infrastructure gets built and every major chipmaker is exposed.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Thursday

Iran's foreign minister came out and said they're not looking for a ceasefire, which is not great from a macro pov. I think people are still underestimating how long Hormuz stays shut and what that does to everything downstream. Software names finally caught a bid after getting destroyed all year, funny how a war makes "boring" reoccurring revenue models look attractive again.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil rips as the Strait of Hormuz goes dark 
Thousands of ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners are scrambling for alternative supply and Saudi Aramco started rerouting crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Iran's foreign minister said they're "not asking for a ceasefire." If this drags on, the Fed's rate cut plans are dead in the water, and the bond market is already pricing that in.

2. Washington tightens the leash on AI chips 

The U.S. drafted new rules requiring approval for AI chip exports anywhere in the world, not just the 40 countries currently restricted. Companies building large clusters may need to open their doors for government site visits. Separately, Nvidia stopped producing China-bound H200 chips and shifted that capacity to its next-gen Vera Rubin platform.

3. Berkshire puts its cash to work 

Greg Abel restarted corporate buybacks and used his entire take-home pay to buy $15 million in shares. Said he consulted directly with Buffett on both timing and intrinsic value. When the guys sitting on $373 billion in cash finally start buying, I’m taking note.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 0.69% )  
beat earnings and now sees AI revenue north of $100 billion by FY27, well above the roughly $85 billion consensus. AI revenue more than doubled this quarter.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  
fell on the export restriction report. CEO Jensen Huang said their $30 billion OpenAI investment "might be the last" before the startup goes public.

Trade Desk $TTD ( ▼ 1.71% )  
ran hard after The Information reported early talks with OpenAI to partner on ChatGPT ad sales.

Big Name Updates

Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▼ 1.4% )  
is cutting roughly 2,500 jobs across all three divisions. That's about 5,500 total under CEO Ted Pick in just over a year.

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 3.75% )  
and United Airlines $UAL took heavy losses. Airlines are flying gas stations. When crude breaks higher, they get punished immediately.

Kroger $KR ( ▲ 3.55% )  
bucked the selloff. New CEO Greg Foran (ex-Walmart) wants to cut costs and lower prices. Said Kroger barely imports anything directly and that needs to change.

Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 2.06% )  
got its final consent order from the fake-accounts scandal terminated by the Fed. Nearly a decade of remediation, finally closed.

Other Notable Company News

Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 0.36% )  
and Intuit $INTU caught a bid as investors rotated back into software. The group has been beaten down all year relative to semiconductors.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.31% )  
is rolling out an invite-only credit card with a $695 annual fee, heavy travel perks, and over $1,000 in annual credits.

Okta $OKTA ( ▲ 1.34% )  
beat on earnings but gave a soft outlook for the current quarter.

Iris Energy $IREN ( ▼ 8.54% )  
ordered 50,000+ Nvidia B300 GPUs, bringing its planned fleet to 150,000 units.

United States Antimony $UAMY ( ▲ 3.35% )  
got $27 million from the Department of War to expand domestic antimony processing in Montana and Alaska.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields rose for a fourth straight day. The math is simple. Higher energy prices mean stickier inflation, which means rate cut bets are getting pulled fast. Futures now show less than a 50/50 chance of two or more cuts this year, down from 79 percent just last week.

The ECB's vice president said an extended war could force a change in their policy stance too.

Policy Watch

Iran Conflict 
Iran's foreign minister said flatly they're not seeking a ceasefire. Polymarket bettors now put the odds of one by March 31 at just 24 percent, down from above 60 percent after the initial strikes. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the U.S. is "winning decisively" and more forces are arriving.

Trade

• Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the 15 percent global tariff will likely take effect this week

• Trump threatened to "cut off all trade with Spain" after Madrid refused to let U.S. forces use its bases for Iran strikes

Energy Supply

• The White House is pushing to boost Venezuelan oil imports to offset Middle East disruptions. Trump posted that "oil is beginning to flow from Venezuela"

• China ordered major refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports to protect domestic crude supply

• Venezuela's state miner signed a deal to sell gold to Trafigura for U.S. markets. The U.S. interior secretary urged American firms to tap Venezuelan gold reserves, which pressured gold prices

Asia 
South Korean lawmakers warned that rising energy costs could undermine the price competitiveness of their semiconductor industry. Samsung and SK Hynix both recovered after Wednesday's historic selloff.

What to Watch

February Jobs Report 
Nonfarm payrolls drop tomorrow. Bond markets just went from pricing in a 79 percent chance of two or more rate cuts to below 50/50 in a single week. A hot number on top of $80 oil essentially kills rate cuts for the first half of 2026.

Strait of Hormuz 
Most important variable in markets right now. Polymarket puts ceasefire odds by March 31 at just 24 percent, down from 60 percent after the initial strikes. Every day it stays shut, storage fills and producers run out of places to put crude. Dan Niles flagged $100 oil as the recession trigger.

Global Tariff Activation 
Bessent confirmed the 15 percent global tariff likely goes into effect this week. Flying under the radar with Iran headlines dominating but it hits at the worst time for a market already worried about inflation.

Costco Earnings 
Reports this week. I want to see if shoppers are trading down into bulk buying as gas prices spike. That tells you a lot about how fast energy costs are changing consumer behavior.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

The Iran war is in day six with Hormuz still closed and Brent back up today.

Weekly jobless claims came in at 213K this morning, right where expectations were. Employers are still holding onto workers. Good for paychecks, bad for rate cuts. The Fed has no new reason to move. Trump's 15% global tariff is expected this week.

A lot of inflation pressure building in a short window. June cut odds already sit at 30%.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. The Hormuz Bottleneck Is Now A Global Inflation Event 

A fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply is stuck behind a closed strait with Gulf producers already cutting output. This is no longer just an oil story. Rate cut expectations have been slashed across the Fed, the BOE, and the ECB in the past week alone. June cut odds have been cut nearly in half. If U.S. escorts don't get tankers moving soon, that number goes to zero.

2. Broadcom Just Made The Case That AI Demand Is Accelerating 

AI revenue hit $8.4 billion, more than double last year, and management guided Q2 to $22 billion versus the Street's $20.5 billion. The new $10 billion buyback says they believe it. What matters today is whether this lifts the broader AI chain or stays a Broadcom-only story.

3. Berkshire Is Buying While Everyone Else Is Hiding 

Repurchases resumed yesterday for the first time since mid-2024. Greg Abel put $15 million of his own money in and committed to doing it every year. While the rest of the market piles into gold and treasuries, the new guy running a $1 trillion conglomerate is telling you he thinks equities are cheap.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 0.69% )  

Revenue at $8.4 billion, double last year. Q2 guide at $22 billion, Street was at $20.5 billion. New $10 billion buyback approved. Watch whether this lifts the broader AI chain or stays isolated.

Trade Desk $TTD ( ▼ 1.71% )  

The Information reports early talks with OpenAI to sell ads inside ChatGPT. Nothing signed yet. If it happens, Trade Desk becomes the ad layer for the most used AI product in the world.

StubHub $STUB ( ▼ 6.29% )  

Missed revenue by $35 million. Swung to a loss. Still early as a public company and already stumbling. Watch for any analyst downgrades to pile on.

Veeva Systems $VEEV ( ▼ 0.29% )  

Earnings beat at $2.06 versus $1.93 estimate. Revenue topped by $25 million. One of the few cloud software names delivering right now while the rest of the sector gets crushed.

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% )  

Buybacks resumed for the first time since Q2 2024. Abel bought $15 million in stock personally. Covered in the Summary. The signal here is conviction from new leadership at a discount from highs.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  

Shifting production toward the Vera Rubin platform after export controls left 250,000 H200 chips without Chinese buyers. Not a demand problem. A routing problem. The company is reallocating capacity to where orders are firm.

What to Watch

Trump's 15% Global Tariff 

Bessent said it drops this week. EU expects an exemption. Everyone else gets hit. A tariff hike landing the same week as an energy shock puts two inflation catalysts on the tape at once.

Strait Of Hormuz 

The escort plan sounds good on paper. Analysts say Iran can harass that waterway with drones for months. If Brent breaks $85, the rate cut conversation is over until at least September.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Tomorrow) 

A strong number Friday makes it nearly impossible for the Fed to justify a June cut.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Wednesday


Markets took a beating early before recovering some ground.

Day five of the Iran conflict and the market rallied. Bessent promised naval escorts and ship insurance for Gulf tankers, oil stopped going up for the first time all week, and traders decided the worst was behind them today. I'm not so sure about that yet but things are looking more promising every hour.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Stabilizes but the Damage Underneath Is Real

Brent crude settled around $81 after Bessent announced plans for ship insurance and Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. But the relief might be premature. Iraq has slashed production by over 1.5 million barrels a day because it's running out of storage. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its LNG contracts, signaling no restart soon. Goldman says Brent hits $100 if Hormuz stays blocked five more weeks.

2. South Korea Posts Worst Day Since 1985 

The Korean stock exchange fell a record amount on Wednesday(last night), bringing two-day losses to roughly 18%. Samsung and SK Hynix both got hit hard on fears that energy costs will crush chip margins. Before this week, the index was up 48% on the year. Dubai and Abu Dhabi reopened with steep losses after a two-day trading halt.

3. 15% Global Tariff Starts This Week 

Bessent confirmed the new tariff replaces the existing 10% duty and lasts 150 days while agencies produce studies for permanent measures. He predicted rates would come back down within five months. That's a bold call when you're layering trade costs on top of an energy shock and diesel prices at their highest since October 2023.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  
saw billionaire Leo KoGuan buy another million shares on Tuesday. Whale buyers keep stacking this name on any weakness.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.09% )  
revealed new MacBook Pro lines powered by M5 Pro and M5 Max chips. Oppenheimer says the new Fusion Architecture gives Apple a significant lead in local AI compute.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▼ 2.38% )  
is building out an applied AI engineering body to support its superintelligence work.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 1.18% )  
was added to Mizuho's top picks list with a $400 target. The analyst sees Oracle locking in its position as the fourth hyperscaler.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 2.45% )  
signed a multiyear deal with Perplexity to power its next-gen inference workloads.

Other Notable Company News

Dow $DOW ( ▼ 1.31% )  
and LyondellBasell $LYB both got upgraded to overweight by KeyBanc. The analyst flagged that up to 15% of global ethylene capacity is directly tied to the Iran conflict, which benefits U.S. producers.

Visa $V ( ▼ 0.76% )  
is expanding its stablecoin card partnership with Stripe-owned Bridge to over a hundred countries.

Applied Digital $APLD ( ▼ 10.5% )  
priced over $2 billion in senior secured notes to fund its Polaris Forge campus.

Newmont $NEM ( ▲ 0.17% )  
landed an overweight initiation from JPMorgan on strong free cash flow and a bullish gold outlook.

Nebius $NBIS ( ▼ 6.61% )  
got city approval for a gigawatt-scale AI data center campus in Independence, Missouri.

Bath & Body Works $BBWI ( ▼ 6.69% )  
said its refocus on core products like candles and body care is working. Shares moved higher.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield climbed to 4.089% as inflation expectations from the energy shock keep building. Vanguard sees only one rate cut in 2026. The market is pricing in two. Someone is wrong.

Policy Watch

Fed Trump officially transmitted Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair to the Senate. If confirmed, he replaces Jerome Powell.

Tariffs The 15% global tariff replaces last month's 10% duty and takes effect this week. Bessent says it lasts 150 days while agencies produce studies for permanent measures.

Iran & Energy ( alot to unpack here)

• Hegseth said the war could last up to eight weeks but might end sooner

• Iranian intelligence operatives reportedly reached out to the CIA about ending the conflict, per the NYT. Iran later denied it.

• U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship with a torpedo, the first torpedo sinking since World War II

• U.S. and Israel expect complete control of Iranian skies within days

• Iraq cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day as storage fills up

• QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts

• Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM all halted bookings to the Gulf

• An LNG tanker bound for Europe reversed course to Asia as a bidding war for energy begins

• Goldman projects Brent hits $100 if Hormuz stays blocked five more weeks

• Diesel futures hit their highest since October 2023

Crypto 
Trump demanded Congress pass the Clarity Act and attacked banks for holding it hostage. Kraken Financial won a Federal Reserve master account, the first crypto firm on the Fed's core payment rails. Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000.

International

• South Korea's Kospi posted its worst day on record, losing roughly 18% in two days

• Dubai and Abu Dhabi reopened with steep losses after a two-day halt

• Turkey intercepted a ballistic projectile launched from Iran

• Spain and the U.S. clashing over air base access. Trump threatened to sever trade ties.

Defense 

Lockheed Martin and RTX
execs are heading to the White House Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production. The Pentagon is preparing a $50 billion supplemental budget request to replenish munitions. Separately, OpenAI is in talks with NATO about deploying AI on unclassified networks.

What to Watch

Broadcom Earnings Tonight 
Street expects $2.03 EPS on $19.18 billion in revenue. I want to hear management's read on custom silicon demand and AI infrastructure spend.

Friday Jobs Report 
ADP came in at 63,000 private jobs for February, beating estimates. The official number Friday matters more. Strong wage growth could kill rate cut hopes.

Strait of Hormuz 
The White House wouldn't commit to a timeline for when the Strait will be safe. If tankers don't start moving soon, oil goes to $100. This is the single biggest macro variable right now.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Earnings season rolls on. Broadcom tonight. Costco and Alibaba later this week. None of it matters until the Iran situation finds a floor. Around 4 AM, the NYT reported that Iranian officials quietly contacted the CIA about ending the fighting. Futures turned positive on the headline. Asian markets took the worst of it overnight.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Strait Is Still Shut. Everything Else Is Talk. 

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. That's the only fact that matters right now. Bessent went on CNBC this morning to say DFC is insuring tankers and the Navy is on standby. Iran reportedly reached out to the CIA through a back channel to discuss ending the conflict. U.S. officials are skeptical. None of this has moved a single ship. Until tanker traffic resumes, oil stays elevated and every other asset prices off it. The binary today is simple: does something physical change or doesn't it.

2. Bonds Are Selling Off With Stocks. That Breaks The Playbook. 

In a normal crisis, money flows into Treasuries. That's not happening. Yields are climbing because the market is pricing energy-driven inflation over safety. Gold fell yesterday for the same reason. The traditional 60/40 hedge failed. If ISM prices-paid confirms energy pass-through this morning, the rate-cut timeline gets pushed into the fall. That reprices equities across the board, starting with rate-sensitive sectors.

3. Asia Just Showed What A Real Energy Shock Looks Like.

Korea had its worst trading day in history. Circuit breakers fired twice. Samsung and SK Hynix are half the index. Their factories run on imported Middle East energy. Japan dropped. Dubai reopened after two days dark and sold off right away. The pattern is clear. Countries that buy their energy from the Gulf are getting repriced first. If the Strait stays shut, European manufacturing names are next in line.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 0.69% )  

Reports after the close. Street is watching AI revenue mix and forward guidance. Asia's chipmaker selloff overnight raises the bar for a clean print.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 2.43% )  

Settled patent litigation with Arbutus $ABUS ( ▼ 3.62% )  and Roivant $ROIV ( ▼ 3.16% )  for $950 million. Arbutus and Roivant selling off premarket. Moderna up. The legal overhang is gone. Watch for analyst price target revisions today.

GitLab $GTLB ( ▼ 1.81% )  

Guided for slower annual sales growth. AI coding tools are the competitive threat. This is the first clear signal that AI is cannibalizing traditional dev platform spend.

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▲ 0.66% )  

Beat on earnings. AI-driven cyber threats expanding the addressable market. Watch for follow through above recent highs.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 4.49% )   

Higher as Bitcoin rebounds from its early week selloff. Coinbase and Robinhood moving with it. Direction depends on whether crypto holds the bounce or rolls over with risk sentiment.

Adidas $ADDYY ( ▼ 1.56% )  

Guided 2026 operating profit to 2.3 billion euros, about 15 below consensus. 400 million euro hit from U.S. tariffs and currency. Fresh 52 week low. Nike and Puma stuck in the same rut. No catalyst to break the group out.

What to Watch

Bessent: More Gulf Oil Measures Coming (Any-time Today)

Treasury Secretary went on CNBC this morning to talk oil down. DFC is already insuring crude carriers. Navy escorts are on standby. Bessent called the market "very well supplied" and pointed to record U.S. production. Words are cheap. Watch if tankers actually move.

Mortgage Rates Whipsawed 

30-year fixed sat at 6.09 last week, lowest since 2022. Refi applications hit a three-year high. Then rates shot higher Monday on the Iran strikes. Housing had a window. It may already be shut.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Tuesday


Markets took a beating early before recovering some ground.

The Iran war kept escalating until Trump promised Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, which pulled stocks off their lows. I'm watching the US Dollar right now, it caught a massive bid today. That's where investors hide when they actually panic.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

The Strait Is Closed

Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz today officially. Tanker traffic through the chokepoint that moves 20 percent of the world's oil has stopped completely. Brent briefly hit $85 before pulling back after Trump promised Navy escorts for commercial tankers through the region. Diesel futures posted their steepest single-day move since the first Gulf War.

Safe Havens Shift 

You can tell a lot about a market by what people buy when they get scared. Today, nobody wanted gold or silver. They dumped both hard. Everyone just wanted US Dollars. That tells me we're looking at a pure liquidity grab, not a long-term inflation hedge. Gold fell around 4% while the dollar caught its biggest bid in months…. Silver down around 8% today.

Momentum Trades Unwind 

The rotation trade died today. Investors had been piling into small caps, memory chips, and international markets for months betting that gains would broaden out. All of that stopped the second this conflict escalated. South Korea's Kospi posted its worst day in 19 months. The European Stoxx 600, DAX, and FTSE 100 all hit their biggest drops since the April tariff selloff.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Target $TGT ( ▲ 0.36% )  
reported better holiday earnings than Wall Street expected. Adjusted $2.44 per share versus the $2.16 consensus. Foot traffic finally turned positive in January, giving them a credible path back to growth this year.

Best Buy $BBY ( ▲ 1.65% )  
made more money despite selling less gear. Adjusted earnings of $2.61 per share beat the $2.46 estimate. CEO Corie Barry said internal data shows their market share held flat in a tough environment for consumer electronics.

MongoDB $MDB ( ▲ 2.48% )  
gave a weak outlook for the year and lost two top sales executives on the same day. Baird downgraded on concerns that AI is making traditional database models obsolete. Stock is now down more than 40 percent in 2026.

Pinterest $PINS ( ▲ 1.32% )  
secured a billion-dollar investment from Elliott Management to fund a $3.5 billion share buyback program.

Big Name Updates

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.42% )  
was the only Magnificent 7 stock to survive the broad selloff. When the world feels unstable, investors park money in companies sitting on massive cash piles.

Blackstone $BX ( ▼ 4.46% )  
watched a record $1.7 billion in net outflows walk out the door of its $82 billion flagship private credit fund. Withdrawal requests blew past the threshold that lets the firm gate redemptions. Shares are now nearly half off their 2024 high.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.62% )  
warned of extended cloud outages after drone strikes hit three of its data centers in the Middle East. Two UAE facilities took direct hits and a third in Bahrain caught damage from a nearby strike.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 2.18% )  
led the Mag 7 lower. The brief tech recovery we saw yesterday completely evaporated as the reality of a longer conflict set in. Nvidia $NVDA and Alphabet $GOOG followed close behind.

Other Notable Company News

Ziff Davis $ZD ( ▼ 3.05% )  
agreed to sell its connectivity division to Accenture for $1.2 billion in cash.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.31% )  
caught a downgrade from the market as crypto trading volumes dried up.

Credo Technology $CRDO ( ▼ 4.28% )  
dropped on fears that data centers are swapping copper cables for optical links. Bank of America kept a buy rating and sees nearly 40 percent upside.

Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH ( ▼ 4.16% )  
extended Monday's steep losses as fuel costs and route disruptions stack up.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasurys took a hit this morning as higher oil prices woke up the inflation trade. The ten-year yield touched 4.1 percent before backing off this afternoon alongside oil. Rate cut expectations got crushed. Odds of two or more cuts this year fell from nearly 80 percent on Friday to 57 percent today. Friday's jobs report could add more pressure here.

Policy Watch

Middle East Escalation 

The US embassy in Riyadh was hit by drones as Iran expanded its attacks on Saudi Arabia. The State Department ordered evacuations from Bahrain, Iraq, and Jordan. Hezbollah launched missiles and drones at Tel Aviv. Concerns are growing about how long Gulf states can sustain their air defenses against the barrage. US military leaders said more forces are headed to the region but declined to say how long the mission would last.

Energy Fallout

• Gas prices rose 11 cents overnight to $3.11 per gallon nationally. AAA expects another 10 to 30 cents per gallon over the next week.

• QatarEnergy suspended LNG production after attacks on its facilities. Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG exporter. European gas futures roughly doubled from pre-conflict levels before pulling back.

• Goldman Sachs predicted AI will eventually displace 11 million US jobs, about 6 percent of the workforce.

International 

Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain after Madrid denied US base access for the Iran strikes. German Chancellor Merz called the conflict damaging to European economies. The IMF said it's too early to judge the full economic impact.

What to Watch

Broadcom Earnings (tomorrow after bell close)
The chipmaker reports this week. I want to see if their software division is holding back what could be massive hardware growth from the AI buildout.

Friday's Jobs Report 
February nonfarm payrolls are our last clean look at the labor market before the geopolitical noise took over. A hot number kills what's left of rate cut hopes.

Strait of Hormuz 
Watch whether Navy escorts actually begin and if tanker traffic resumes. Every day the strait stays closed, the energy price premium gets stickier. I'm watching this more closely than anything else right now.

QatarEnergy Production 
Any prolonged outage forces European and Asian LNG buyers to fight over limited supply. This could get ugly fast if production doesn't restart soon.

Emerging Market Currencies 
EM currencies are getting hammered by the dollar rally and energy shock. Franklin Templeton flagged that a correction beyond ten percent depends entirely on how the conflict unfolds from here.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Ugly morning gapdown.Monday's dip buy rally is gone. Overnight, Iran hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh with drones, Israel said it destroyed Tehran's leadership compound, and Qatar's biggest LNG plant went dark after an Iranian strike.

The VIX is up and the war volatility is now showing up in every asset class.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Energy Crisis Just Got Bigger Than Oil 

QatarEnergy shut down Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility, after Iranian drone strikes. European gas futures hit a three-year high. Major insurers canceled war risk coverage for ships in the Persian Gulf, so even undamaged routes are frozen. Monday was about oil. Today it's oil, gas, shipping, and insurance all breaking at once.

2. The Short-War Bet Is Losing 

Monday's rally was built on one idea: this ends fast. Overnight, Israel hit Tehran's command centers. Trump won't rule out ground troops. The VIX crossed 25 for the first time since November. Futures gave back everything. The market isn't trading the war. It's trading how long it lasts. And the answer keeps getting longer.

3. The Dollar turns into a Safe Haven, Not Gold 

Gold fell sharply after a four-day rally. When oil costs more, the world needs more dollars to buy it. The U.S. is a net energy exporter, so a supply shock actually strengthens the greenback. Gold is also physically stuck with Dubai's airport hit and UAE airspace closed. In a crisis, the world still runs on dollars.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

MongoDB $MDB ( ▲ 2.48% )  

Down a quarter in this morning. Guidance missed on both lines. AI disruption fear is real for this name now.

Target $TGT ( ▲ 0.36% )  

Beat earnings, $2.44 versus the $2.16 estimate. New CEO hosts investor day today. Fourth straight quarter of falling traffic though and comps went negative while Walmart $WMT posted a 4.6 gain. Prove it stock.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 2.94% )  

Eight analyst upgrades last month, a $10 billion Army contract, and a war that validates their entire business. One of the only S&P 500 names working this week.

Best Buy $BBY ( ▲ 1.65% )  

Beat on Q4 earnings, $2.61 versus the $2.47 estimate. Revenue slightly light. The stock needed a win and got one.

Pinterest $PINS ( ▲ 1.32% )  

Popping this morning after Elliott disclosed a $1 billion stake. The money goes straight into an accelerated share buyback. Activist plus buyback is a combo the market pays up for.

Cheniere Energy $LNG ( ▲ 2.25% )  

Climbing as Europe scrambles for gas after the Qatar shutdown. Indonesia said this morning it's sourcing crude from the U.S. instead of the Gulf. American energy exporters are the backup plan now.

What to Watch

Trump Energy Relief Announcement (Today) 

The administration said a plan to offset rising consumer energy costs drops today. Could be a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release. Could be subsidies. No details yet. If it's big enough to move oil even a few dollars, the whole tape reacts.

Fed's Williams, Schmid, Kashkari (Today) 

All three speak today. The market needs to hear how the Fed is processing $85 oil on top of already-hot input prices. Any hawkish lean on inflation and September rate cut pricing gets pushed back further.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping 

An Iranian commander said on state TV overnight that forces will set fire to any ship that tries to pass. The U.S. military's Central Command disputes the closure. But it doesn't matter when no insurer will write the policy. Watch for any commercial vessel attempting transit today. That's your signal.

CrowdStrike Earnings (After The Bell) 

$CRWD ( ▲ 0.66% )  Reports tonight. AWS said multiple Middle East data centers were knocked offline by drone strikes this week. Cyber and infrastructure resilience just went from boardroom topic to front-page reality.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Monday

Wild session. Markets opened down hard on the Iran situation then reversed almost entirely by lunch. Oil is higher but honestly not as high as I expected given everything happening over there. I think crude is the only chart that matters this week. If it can't break and hold above $80, the market is telling you this stays contained.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. U.S.-Israel Strikes Kill Khamenei, Oil Rips, Strait of Hormuz Goes Dark 

Trump claimed "48 leaders gone in one shot" and dubbed it "Operation Epic Fury." Maersk suspended all Strait of Hormuz transits and QatarEnergy halted LNG production after strikes hit two facilities. Brent crude hit a 52-week high above $78 as insurers pulled coverage for Gulf vessels.

2. Markets Staged a Wild Reversal as Tech Played Safe Haven 

The S&P 500 fell over 1% at the open and clawed all the way back to green by early afternoon. Buyers went straight for Nvidia, Microsoft, and the other cash-rich names the moment the bell rang. It says something about this market that semiconductors and software are now the defensive trade during a war. Wells Fargo data shows the S&P 500 typically turns positive within two weeks of a major conflict.

3. Bond Yields Pushed Back Above 4% on Inflation Fears 

Treasurys initially rallied on safe-haven flows, then reversed hard. The ISM manufacturing prices index shot up 11.5 points to 70.5. Fed-funds futures now show less than a coin-flip chance of a rate cut by June, down from a clear majority just last week. The market went from pricing cuts to pricing sticky inflation in about four hours.

Market Overview

Index Performance (Oil today)

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  
management told UBS they are already planning compute capacity buildouts well into 2027. The chipmaker also announced $2 billion investments in both Lumentum $LITE and Coherent $COHR to accelerate optics for AI infrastructure. UBS reiterated Buy with a $245 target.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 2.94% )  
saw massive inflows from retail investors during the first hour of trading. VandaTrack data showed millions flowing in on a net basis alongside energy ETFs. Selective repositioning, not panic.

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▲ 0.66% )  
caught an upgrade from Piper Sandler to Overweight with a $520 target. Analysts think the recent selloff on AI disruption fears went too far for a premium security platform. Shares had been down over 20 points YTD.

Big Name Updates

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% )  
reported a sharp decline in operating earnings during Buffett's final quarter as CEO. Q4 came in at $10.2 billion, down roughly 30 from a year ago. Insurance underwriting got cut in half. New CEO Greg Abel used his first annual letter to promise continuity with Buffett's blueprint.

Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH ( ▼ 4.16% )  
issued a disappointing annual outlook just as the industry faces rising fuel costs from the conflict. Management cited mistiming of Caribbean capacity increases. The timing is brutal for the entire cruise sector.

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 2.56% )  
and the broader defense sector caught aggressive bids today. Citi expects a serious increase in missile-defense spending. Northrop Grumman $NOC and RTX $RTX both ran hard.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.62% )  
dealt with a disruption to its web services in the UAE after unidentified objects struck a data center and caused a fire. Still no ETA on power restoration.

Other Notable Company News

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 4.19% ) got triple-downgraded by Raymond James to Underperform from Strong Buy after losing exclusivity on the $1.4 billion SCAR program with Space Force. Backlog could take a $1 billion to $1.4 billion hit.

Cameco $CCJ ( ▼ 3.99% )  
secured a $2.6 billion long-term deal to supply uranium to India's atomic energy department. Deliveries run 2027 through 2035.

MicroStrategy $MSTR ( ▼ 4.49% )  
bought another 3,015 Bitcoin worth $199 million for its corporate treasury.

Blue Owl Capital $OWL ( ▼ 5.09% )  
caught a downgrade from Barclays as Wall Street starts asking harder questions about the private credit boom. Shares have been cut in half over the past year.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 1.25% )  
got downgraded to Neutral by Goldman after CagriSema failed to show non-inferiority vs. Eli Lilly's tirzepatide on weight loss. Goldman cut estimates through 2030.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.09% )  
announced a budget-focused iPhone 17e and an upgraded iPad Air, with more product news expected later this week.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields pushed higher today. The initial flight to safety faded fast as traders worried that more expensive oil will reignite inflation.

• 10-year climbed back above 4 percent

A stronger than expected ISM manufacturing report kept the pressure on bonds. Tomorrow: watch if yields keep climbing or if the safety trade reasserts overnight.

Policy Watch

Fed The ISM headline at 52.4 was fine. The problem is the prices component at 70.5, up 11.5 points. Backlogs rose 5 points. Imports climbed 4.9. Employment still in contraction at 48.8. Rising input costs with a soft labor picture is not what the Fed wants heading into a potential energy shock. The central bank suddenly has a new variable to model.

International

• OPEC+ agreed in principle to a 206K barrel/day production hike for April. I'm not sure 206K does much when the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut for commercial traffic.

• Chinese independent refineries rely heavily on Iranian crude. They have built up reserves, but a prolonged conflict will test those buffers.

Washington 
Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed Senate and House leadership this afternoon on the Iran situation and base security in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Trump said the conflict could last four to five weeks but added it could go "far longer than that." That is a meaningful shift from the initial rhetoric of wrapping this up over the weekend.

Fiscal & Trade 
Diesel futures had their biggest single-day gain since early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. This matters more than gasoline because diesel moves goods. About 11 percent of global refining capacity sits in the Middle East. Higher shipping costs could bleed into consumer prices within weeks if this drags on.

What to Watch

Oil Prices Over the Next 48 Hours 
Everything trades off crude right now. Piper Sandler's Kantrowitz put it plainly: stocks won't move higher without oil moving lower. Wells Fargo's worst case is S&P 6,000 if Hormuz stays closed and oil hits $100+. Their base case is still 7,500 by year-end.

Strait of Hormuz Shipping Situation 
The difference between a two-week disruption and a multi-month disruption is the difference between a headline scare and real inflation pressure. Several international insurers already cancelled policies for Persian Gulf vessels. Watch if more shipping companies follow Maersk in suspending transits.

Diesel Prices 
Pay attention to the trucking market. Diesel futures moved aggressively higher today, which poses a much bigger threat to the cost of consumer goods than gasoline does. If this sustains for more than a couple weeks, it shows up in everything from grocery bills to Amazon shipping costs.

Software Shorts at 2008 Levels 
Deutsche Bank flagged that software short interest hit the highest level since the financial crisis. Median short interest above 5 percent across the sector. If the broader tech sector keeps catching bids, we could see some violent squeezes. Today's bounce in IGV was the first signal.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Headlines are loud for the rest of the week, but three things will stand out:

Crude near $80, shipping disruptions, and defense demand being pulled forward.

The next 48 hours will tell us if this fades or feeds into inflation and earnings cuts.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Strength Changes The Macro Math 

Crude is pressing against $80 as Middle East supply risk rises and key routes remain unstable. At this level, it's manageable. Above $85, it's an earnings problem. Airlines, transports, and consumer margins get revised first. Energy becomes the funding trade. If flows through the Strait normalized, the premium fades. If not, this sticks.

2. Shipping Disruption Is The Quiet Risk

Major carriers are rerouting vessels around Africa to avoid conflict zones. That adds time and cost immediately. Freight inflation doesn't hit day one. It hits in 2 to 4 weeks through goods pricing. If spot rates move this week, retail and industrial estimates come under pressure next. Watch the rate indexes, not the headlines.

3. Defense Revenue Is Being Pulled Forward

Escalation shifts focus from diplomacy to replenishment. Investors are pricing faster procurement and stronger backlog visibility. If Washington signals sustained engagement, multiples hold. If rhetoric cools, the bid fades quickly.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 2.56% )  
is leading the defense trade, up in the premarket. Northrop Grumman $NOC and RTX $RTX are right behind it. War is good for this group and the tape is pricing in a prolonged conflict.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 4.19% )  
is the biggest mover in premarket, up more than 10. Drone warfare is front and center in this conflict and the market is treating this name like a direct beneficiary.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 0.3% )  
is up in early trading on the crude move. Chevron $CVX and ConocoPhillips $COP are also higher. If Hormuz stays disrupted, this group has a lot more room to run.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 3.52% )  
is down in premarket, worst among U.S. carriers. It has the most international exposure. American $AAL and Delta $DAL are both down. Emirates and Etihad suspended all flights. This is a global travel disruption.

Coherent $COHR ( ▼ 7.15% )  
and Lumentum $LITE are in focus after Nvidia $NVDA announced plans to invest $2 billion in each company through multi-year deals. This is Nvidia betting big on photonics for the next wave of AI infrastructure.

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.28% )  
reported a 30 slide in quarterly operating earnings. Shares are slightly down about. Not the worst timing for Buffett to be sitting on his famous cash pile, though.

What to Watch

Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic 
The single most important variable for oil prices today. About 15 million barrels a day flow through this chokepoint. It's not formally closed but nothing is moving. If that doesn't change soon, $80 oil is just the beginning.

Rubio Briefs Congressional Leaders (4:00 PM ET) 
Secretary of State Marco Rubio updates Senate and House leadership on Iran. Congress is also moving toward a war powers vote this week. Any signal on escalation or offramp will move the tape into the close.

Iran's Leadership Transition A temporary council is running Iran right now. The Assembly of Experts will pick a new supreme leader. Whether the new leadership escalates or seeks negotiations determines how long this conflict lasts and how long oil stays elevated.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Sunday

Unfortunately what the markets have been signalling has come true. The US and Israel just launched a full-scale military campaign against Iran. This happened hours after Friday's close, and it reframes the entire week we just had.

Iran: what happened

Early Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran. This isn't a repeat of last summer's limited hits on nuclear sites. Strikes hit at least 24 of Iran's 31 provinces. Targets included IRGC command centers, missile launchers, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military airfields in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Tabriz, and Shiraz.

Over 200 killed. 747 injured according to Iran's Red Crescent. The deadliest single incident: 148+ killed at a girls' school in Minab. That will dominate Monday's news cycle.

Trump announced "major combat operations" from Mar-a-Lago and told Iranians to "take over your government." Israel's leadership is calling this an existential strike, not a warning shot. They hit Khamenei's compound in central Tehran. Satellite photos show it reduced to rubble.

Trump posted on Truth Social that Khamenei is dead. As of Sunday, Iran has officially confirmed it. State media reversed their Saturday denials. The government declared 40 days of mourning and a 7-day national holiday. Family members were also killed in the compound strike.

A transitional 3-person Leadership Council has formed: President Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Mohseni-Ejei, and senior cleric Ayatollah Arafi. Pezeshkian went on video vowing "blood and revenge." But behind the scenes, AP and White House sources say the new leadership has quietly signaled openness to talks with Washington. Trump confirmed: "They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk." Defiance publicly, negotiating privately. That's a pattern worth watching.

Israel says they've now killed at least 40 top Iranian officials. The IDF confirmed seven in a press conference Saturday, including Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani. Whether this council survives the week is an open question.

Iran is retaliating hard. Hundreds of missiles and drones launched at Israel and 27 US bases across Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman. Most intercepted. But a direct hit on a synagogue area in Beit Shemesh killed at least 9 Israelis. Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports were hit. Kuwait airport took damage.

The Pentagon confirmed the first 3 US service member deaths on Sunday, hit at a base in Kuwait. Five more seriously wounded. That number was zero 24 hours ago. It changes the domestic political conversation fast. Democrats are already pushing a war powers resolution calling this an "illegal war."

Strikes entered day two Sunday. Israel launched fresh waves into "the heart of Tehran" and claimed near-total air dominance. The US deployed B-2 bombers overnight to hit hardened ballistic missile facilities. Trump announced 9 Iranian naval ships sunk and the naval HQ "largely destroyed." Over 1,200 munitions dropped across 24 provinces so far. Trump said operations are "ahead of schedule."

The Strait of Hormuz

Iranian state media announced the Strait is effectively shut. Ships reported hearing a radio broadcast from the Iranian navy declaring transit banned. Hundreds of oil and LNG tankers are now anchored. Maersk is rerouting. Insurance premiums are up 25-50%. At least two tankers have been struck, source unclear. Iran's foreign minister denied plans to mine or fully close the Strait "at this stage," which is not exactly reassuring.

A third of the world's seaborne crude exports flow through that waterway. 14 million barrels a day. China gets half its crude imports from there.

Iran has never fully closed the Strait before and probably can't sustain a blockade against the US Navy. But they don't need to. Mines, tanker harassment, and insurance risk alone spike shipping costs. The war premium gets baked into every barrel whether the waterway is technically "open" or not.

Brent surged 10% Sunday to roughly $80 a barrel. That was the number I flagged yesterday as the knee-jerk level. The question now is whether it holds there or pushes toward $100. If Hormuz stays disrupted for more than a few days, $100 is on the table.

OPEC+ pledged a modest output hike of 206,000 barrels per day for April. It's a gesture. Spare capacity is limited and a supply decision doesn't offset a shooting war.

Dow futures dropped 622 points after Friday's close. Gold is around $5,300. Bitcoin dropped 2% Saturday. UAE and Kuwait stock exchanges closed for Monday and Tuesday.

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Three scenarios for how this plays out

Scenario 1: Contained and fading (35-40% odds)

This looked like the base case Saturday. It's harder to argue now. Day 2 brought B-2 bombers, 9 ships sunk, continued strikes on Tehran, and 3 dead Americans. That said, the back-channel talk signals are real. If the Leadership Council's private diplomacy produces a ceasefire framework by mid-week and tanker traffic resumes, oil pulls back toward $75-80 and equities recover some of the damage. The June 2025 playbook still applies but the window for it is narrower than it was 24 hours ago.

The back-channel signals are the only reason this isn't lower. If those talks are real, we could see a framework emerge faster than people expect. Markets would rally hard on any ceasefire headline.

Scenario 2: Multi-week campaign (45-50% odds)

This is looking like the base case now. Trump said Saturday the bombing will "continue uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary." Sunday confirmed it: fresh strikes, B-2 deployments, naval operations expanding. If operations continue and the Strait stays disrupted, oil sustains at $80-90, the stagflation narrative becomes the dominant macro theme, rate cut expectations get repriced hard, and equities take another leg down. This is the scenario where that hot PPI number on Friday starts mattering a lot more because energy adds another inflationary layer on top of tariff pass-through.

This is the scenario where the Health Dashboard matters most. Breadth will tell you whether selling is broad-based or concentrated in a few names.

Scenario 3: Regional war (15-20% odds)

Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, Houthis in Yemen all fully activate. The Strait stays closed. $100+ oil. Every portfolio assumption from the last 18 months gets thrown out. This was 10-15% on Saturday. I'd bump it slightly higher now. Iraq PMF already hit, Pakistan boiling over, Hezbollah gathering but holding fire. One Hezbollah rocket barrage from southern Lebanon changes this from a bilateral conflict to a multi-front war.

What I'm watching (with specific tells)

1. Does the Leadership Council hold or fracture?

Khamenei is dead and Iran admitted it. A 3-person council is running things. They're publicly vowing revenge while privately signaling openness to talks. Iran's foreign minister says a new supreme leader "may" be selected "in a day or two." The question is whether this council consolidates or gets picked apart by continued Israeli strikes (40+ officials already killed). If the back-channel talks produce a ceasefire framework this week, Scenario 1 plays out. If the council fractures or the IRGC overrides it, we're deeper into Scenario 2.

Worth noting: the Pentagon authorized non-emergency personnel departures from Qatar and Bahrain. You don't pull families out for a 48-hour operation.

2. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, not rhetoric

Forget what Iran says. Watch what ships do. If tankers resume transiting by Sunday night or Monday morning, the oil spike fades. If shipping stays paused or Iran starts laying mines, $80+ becomes the new floor and Scenario 2 kicks in.

3. OPEC+ already responded

They pledged 206,000 bpd for April. It's marginal. Spare capacity is thin and the Strait is where the spare capacity would need to flow through anyway. This won't cap oil prices if the conflict continues.

4. Gulf state equity markets

UAE and Kuwait exchanges closed Monday and Tuesday. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul is the main read now. Middle East indices that did trade dropped 1.5-3%. If Saudi sells off hard Monday, the region is pricing in prolonged conflict.

5. Proxy front activation (partially underway)

Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces HQ was hit by a US-Israeli strike, killing four. Hezbollah is holding mourning gatherings in Lebanon but hasn't launched rockets. Protests in Pakistan killed 22+, including a storming of the US consulate in Karachi. The proxies are stirring but haven't fully committed. If Hezbollah fires from southern Lebanon, that's the line between bilateral conflict and regional war.

6. PCE print March 13

Oil is already at $80. If it stays there for two weeks, the inflation picture gets materially worse. Core PCE at 3.2% or higher = rate cuts are off the table for 2026. Watch the 2-year yield reaction more than the equity tape.

I don't know how this resolves. Nobody does. The next few weeks are going to be driven by oil prices, Fed paralysis, and whether this conflict stays contained or spreads. The structural data, breadth, sector rotation, yield behavior, that's where the real answers will show up before the headlines catch on.

Monday will be volatile. The first 48 hours will sort out which scenario we're in. Those tells above will give you clarity faster than any headline will. Energy, defense, and rate-sensitive growth are all going to move differently depending on which scenario takes hold.

I'll be updating throughout the week as developments unfold.

-John

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Happy Friday

Ugly way to close out the month. Inflation came in strong on PPI, bank stocks got wrecked, and Jack Dorsey just told the world that AI is coming for half his workforce. Gold had its best month in over a decade off it’s bounce and the Nasdaq is limping into March down over three percent in Feb.

I think we're watching sentiment shift in a real way and not just the normal end-of-month noise. Going over more of this in premium newsletter this weekend and Sundays deep dive.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Rate Cuts Are Off The Table

Wholesale inflation came in way hotter than expected this morning. Core PPI printed at 0.8 for the month, more than double the 0.3 Wall Street was looking for. Services prices drove the move, which tells me companies are starting to pass tariff costs through to the end consumer. I don't see how Powell justifies a cut with core PCE now tracking toward 3.2.

2. AI Disruption Is Hitting Balance Sheets 

Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's $XYZ workforce today because AI can do their jobs. That announcement sent the entire software and lending sector lower. BDCs tied to software companies started cutting dividends with BlackRock TCP Capital slashing its payout from 25 cents to 17 cents and Apollo's MidCap Financial cutting from 38 to 31 cents. The disruption has moved from theory to real money leaving real balance sheets.

3. Gold Snaps Back After January's Crash 

Gold gained around $516 per ounce in February, the largest single-month dollar gain ever recorded. Context matters though. The metal hit $5,602 in late January then crashed $380 in 28 minutes after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Silver fell over 30% from its highs in the same washout. February was the snapback. Gold has still nearly doubled from $2,800 in early 2025, driven by central bank buying (China alone has bought for 15 straight months) and a wave of ETF inflows that hit a record $19 billion in January. Goldman raised their year-end target to $5,400.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Block $XYZ ( ▼ 1.56% )  
is cutting over 4,000 employees because Dorsey believes AI can do their jobs. He told workers at other companies to expect the same. Stock had its best day in years on the news.

Dell $DELL ( ▼ 0.03% )  
beat earnings with AI server revenue more than quadrupling year over year. They guided for $50 billion in AI server revenue next fiscal year. Analysts are watching a memory chip shortage that could slow things down.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.15% )  
walked away from the Warner Bros bidding war after Paramount Skydance $PSKY raised its offer to $31 per share. Netflix said it will spend $20 billion on original content this year instead.

Flutter Entertainment $FLUT ( ▼ 2.03% )  
missed revenue estimates. CEO blamed a weak second half of the NFL season. Kalshi and other prediction markets are pulling bettors away from traditional sportsbooks. Stock has lost over a third of its value since January.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  
fell for a second straight session despite strong earnings earlier this week. The chipmaker pledged $30 billion to OpenAI's latest raise. Investors are starting to ask how long companies can keep spending at this rate on AI infrastructure.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.62% )  
committed $50 billion to that same OpenAI round and announced a partnership to build developer tools on OpenAI's models. Stock barely moved.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 2.45% )  
disappointed with first-quarter guidance. Capital spending will double to $30-35 billion in 2026. CEO said Q1 margins will be the low point and expects them to build from there.

Other Notable Company News

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 2.13% )  
won the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD at $31 per share, backed by Larry Ellison.

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▼ 1.68% )  
led the bank selloff. The KBW Bank Index had its worst session since April.

Monster Beverage $MNST ( ▼ 1.42% )  
beat earnings on strong volume growth. Multiple firms raised price targets.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.72% )  
keeps pulling ahead of Novo Nordisk in weight-loss drugs.

Rocket Companies $RKT ( ▼ 4.53% )  
beat estimates as mortgage rates fell below six percent for the first time in three years.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield fell below four percent for the first time since November. That happened on the same day wholesale inflation came in hot. Bonds rallied anyway because investors are more scared of the stock market than they are of inflation right now.

• Mortgage rates slipped below six percent for the first time in three years

• Long bonds are having their best month in a year

• The 60/40 portfolio is doing its job again after two years of not working

Policy Watch

Fed 
January PPI came in at 0.5 month over month versus 0.3 expected. Core PPI was the real shock at 0.8 versus 0.3 expected, driven almost entirely by services inflation. The next PCE print lands March 13, days before the March 18 Fed meeting. Traders expect another pause.

Separately, the Fed is fighting two DOJ subpoenas tied to US Attorney Jeanine Pirro's investigation into Chair Powell. The probe centers on whether Powell made false statements about Fed headquarters renovations during Senate testimony last summer. The arguments are sealed.

Geopolitics 
US-Iran nuclear talks ended in Geneva with no deal. Next round moves to Vienna with technical teams joining.

• The US deployed additional combat assets to the Gulf this week

• State Department authorized evacuation of non-essential personnel from the Jerusalem embassy

• Trump told reporters he'd "love not to" attack Iran "but sometimes you have to"

• Oil hit six-month highs on the escalation

Embassy evacuations and military deployments in the same week. That's not posturing.

Fiscal & Trade
Over 100 companies including FedEx $FDX and Dollar General $DG filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Total refund liability could exceed $170 billion. Trump said it "has to get litigated."

Manufacturing construction spending fell for the 11th straight month. The reshoring push isn't producing new factories right now.

Defense & AI
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said his company will not hand over AI models for unrestricted Pentagon use despite threats to invoke the Defense Production Act. OpenAI's Sam Altman said he's working on a separate Pentagon deal that could resolve the standoff.

What to Watch

Berkshire Hathaway Earnings 
Greg Abel publishes his first annual shareholder letter tomorrow alongside quarterly results and the full 2025 report. First one without Buffett. I'm reading every word.

OPEC+ Meeting 
The oil cartel meets Sunday. They're expected to resume output hikes, but that decision carries more weight now that Iran talks have broken down and crude is at six-month highs.

PCE Inflation Print
Lands March 13. After today's hot PPI, analysts expect core PCE around 3.1 to 3.2. That would be the highest reading in over a year.

Buyback Wave
February saw $233 billion in buyback authorizations, the largest February on record. Salesforce authorized $50 billion, Walmart $30 billion. Corporate America is buying the dip hard. Year-to-date authorizations already ahead of last year's pace.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Wholesale inflation data just dropped and it's not great (PPI). Prices rose faster than anyone expected. That pushes rate cuts further out.

Block fired half its company and replaced people with AI . Netflix walked away from Warner Bros. and is rallying. A lot to unpack before the weekend.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Netflix Walked Away, Stock jumps 

Netflix killed its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery rather than match Paramount Sky dance's $31-a-share offer. Netflix pockets a $2.8 billion breakup fee.

Stock jumped, Which means the market hated this deal all along. The overhang that wiped $170 billion off Netflix since September is gone. Watch for re rating momentum into next week.

2. Dorsey Just Made AI Layoffs a Boardroom Dare Block 

$XYZ is cutting from 10,000 to under 6,000 employees. Dorsey said AI makes it possible and predicted most companies follow within a year. He raised full-year gross profit guidance to $12.2 billion in the same breath.

The message to every other CEO is simple: cut headcount, show AI leverage, get rewarded. Watch mid-cap software and fintech names with bloated payrolls. If this playbook spreads, the next wave of announcements comes fast.

3. Iran Talks Failed and the Clock Is Still Running 

No deal in Geneva. Technical talks resume in Vienna next week. The U.S. military buildup in the Middle East is the largest since 2003 and Trump gave Iran a 10 to 15 day window 8 days ago.

That window is closing. Oil is up. OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to add 137,000 barrels a day. If diplomacy stalls again, the risk premium in crude stays and potentially widens.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Dell Technologies $DELL ( ▼ 0.03% )  

posted $33.4 billion in revenue, well above estimates. Said AI server revenue doubles next fiscal year. This is the clearest demand signal from the infrastructure side of the AI trade this week.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 2.45% )  

plans to spend $30 to $35 billion in capex this year, more than double last year. All tied to Nvidia GPU purchases and data center buildouts. First-quarter guidance missed. The market is asking whether this spending pace is sustainable.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.15% )  

Done with Warner Bros. Collects a $2.8 billion breakup fee and walks away clean. The deal drag that has hung over this stock for six months is officially gone. First real catalyst for multiple expansion since September.

Duolingo $DUOL ( ▲ 0.37% )  

guided first-quarter and full-year bookings below expectations. Down roughly 25 premarket. This is becoming the poster child for what happens to consumer software names when AI disruption fear takes hold.

Block $XYZ ( ▼ 1.56% )  

Cutting 4,000 jobs and restructuring around AI. Dorsey said smaller teams with AI tools will outperform. Fourth-quarter gross profit hit $2.87 billion and the company raised full year guidance to $12.2 billion. The workforce story matters more than the numbers today.

What to Watch

Oman Foreign Minister Meets VP Vance (Today) 

Badr Al Busaidi heads to Washington after mediating the Geneva talks. Any signal on whether diplomacy is advancing or collapsing reprices crude and defense names before the weekend.

OPEC+ Output Decision (Sunday) 

Expected to add 137,000 barrels per day for April. Saudi Arabia is already quietly increasing production. The decision lands while Iran risk is still unresolved. Direction of oil next week starts here.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter and Earnings (Saturday) 

Greg Abel's first letter as CEO. Quarterly results and full 2025 financials drop alongside it. The market wants to know what he does with the record cash pile. Sets tone for value and insurance names Monday morning.

Apple Product Launch (Monday) 

Tim Cook confirmed a rollout begins Monday. Likely new MacBooks and a lower-cost iPhone. Supply chain names and Apple options positioning will start adjusting this afternoon.

Anthropic Pentagon Deadline (5:01 PM ET Today) 

The Defense Department gave Anthropic until close of business today to drop AI usage restrictions or face action under the Defense Production Act. CEO Dario Amodei already said no. How the Pentagon responds sets a precedent for every AI company with government contracts.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Thursday

Nvidia gapped us up overnight on a monster quarter and the whole thing faded by lunch. Sell the news, plain and simple.There was some rotation though, software names rallied while chip stocks got dumped. That's a new wrinkle worth paying attention to.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Beat Everything and It Didn't Matter 

Nvidia $NVDA posted $68.1 billion in revenue, $43 billion in net income, and guided next quarter to $78 billion. All above estimates. The stock still fell. Wall Street now treats record quarters from this company as background noise. I think the real concern has shifted from "are these numbers good" to "is all this AI spending sustainable."

2. Software Rotation Is On Salesforce 
$CRM beat expectations and Benioff called the selloff "not our first SaaS-pocalypse." Meanwhile chip names like Broadcom $AVGO and Lam Research $LRCX got hit hard. The software ETF $IGV is still in bear market territory, but today's rotation out of hardware tells me the AI-panic selloff in software went too far.

3. Paramount Is Trying to Box Out Netflix Paramount Skydance 

$PSKY posted strong earnings and revised its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD to thirty-one dollars a share. Prediction markets have the deal at roughly even odds. Netflix $NFLX rose too, and Benchmark thinks some investors actually want Netflix to lose this one. I expect this to get messy before it gets resolved.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Celsius Holdings $CELH ( ▼ 1.76% )  
crushed it. Revenue more than doubled year-over-year to $721.6 million, well above the $639 million estimate. North America drove almost all of it.

Zoom Communications $ZM ( ▲ 0.22% )  
missed on earnings and offered weak guidance. The pandemic darling still can't find a second act.

Penn Entertainment $PENN ( ▼ 5.37% )  
delivered stronger-than-expected revenue of $1.81 billion. The stock had its best day in months.

J.M. Smucker $SJM ( ▼ 0.12% )  
beat estimates and added two board members from Elliott Investment Management. Activist pressure is working.

American Bitcoin $ABTC ( ▼ 6.84% )  
swung to a $59 million net loss last quarter. Co-founder Eric Trump says they're hunting for acquisitions. Bitcoin is down roughly half from its October peak above $126,000.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.09% )  
is in talks with major Indian banks and card networks to launch Apple Pay in India by mid-2026. That's a 750 million-plus smartphone market where Apple's share is now around ten points.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.62% )  
may expand its $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI according to The Information. The talks include using Amazon's custom Trainium chips.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.78% )  
is pulling its Intrinsic robotics unit back inside the company after five years as a separate bet. The plan is to pair physical robots with Gemini and DeepMind.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.72% )  
published head-to-head trial results showing its oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron beat oral semaglutide. Patients lost 19.7 lbs versus 11 lbs over 52 weeks.

Other Notable Company News

Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 0.47% )  
signed a multi-year deal with Mistral AI to offer European clients a local alternative to American models. Stock had its best day since April 2025, though shares are still down sharply this year.

Baidu $BIDU ( ▲ 0.95% )  
posted declining revenue for a third straight quarter.

Stellantis $STLA ( ▼ 1.65% )  
recorded its first-ever annual loss. They misjudged EV demand and took massive write-downs.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 0.3% )  
says cold drinks now make up two-thirds of all U.S. orders, up from about a third in 2013. The hot coffee era is fading.

Nutanix $NTNX ( ▼ 1.39% )  
partnered with AMD $AMD in a $250 million venture to build AI infrastructure.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Mortgage rates slipped below six for the first time since 2022. That psychological level matters with spring buying season right around the corner.

Treasury yields drifted lower on the day. Jobless claims came in at 212,000, under the 215,000 estimate. Continuing claims fell by 31,000 — labor market is still holding.

• January producer-price index drops tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Last major inflation read before the next Fed meeting.

Policy Watch

Fed

Atlanta Fed President Bostic used his farewell message before retirement to warn about White House interference with central bank independence. Vice Chair Bowman testified before the Senate Banking Committee today.

Government Shutdown

The partial Homeland Security closure continues. Worth watching if it starts hitting federal contracts next week.

Fiscal & Trade

The Supreme Court struck down Trump's emergency tariffs last Friday. He replaced them with a new tariff under Section 122 on Tuesday and threatened to raise it further.

• At least 1,800 companies have filed lawsuits seeking refunds — FedEx $FDX, Costco $COST, and Goodyear $GT among them. One federal litigator compared it to asbestos-level litigation.

• The Pentagon asked Boeing $BA and Lockheed Martin $LMT to assess their reliance on Anthropic's Claude AI. Could be a first step toward labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk.

International

• U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner are meeting Iranian officials in Geneva on the nuclear program.

• Rare earth shortages of yttrium and scandium are worsening for U.S. aerospace and chipmakers. Both mostly sourced from China.

What to Watch

Dell and CoreWeave Earnings 
Both report after the close today. Dell is a direct read on corporate server spending. Evercore named it a key beneficiary of Nvidia's sovereign business.

Inflation Data 
January PPI drops Friday at 8:30 AM. With the 10-year sitting at four, any surprise moves bonds.

Berkshire Hathaway Letter 
Greg Abel publishes his first annual shareholder letter Saturday alongside quarterly results. I want to see if he shifts capital allocation now that Buffett has stepped back.

The Software Trade
IGV bounced today while chip stocks sold off. Citadel data shows software engineer postings are up about eleven points year-over-year, cutting against the AI job displacement narrative. If this rotation has legs, beaten-down software could be the trade of the quarter.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Nvidia did everything right last night and got a pat on the back. Software names did everything wrong and got taken out back. Jobless Jobless claims just came in at 212K, below the 217K estimate, labor market won't crack.

The Fed isn't riding in to cut soon with numbers like that. The real estate market is getting shook up and I'll likely do my Sunday deep dive on that.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Beat And Nobody Cared 

Nvidia did $68.1 billion in revenue, guided to $78 billion next quarter, crushed every estimate. Stock is up about 1 in premarket. At some point, even blowout numbers become table stakes.

The bar for this stock isn't "beat estimates." It's "convince me the next three years look like the last three." That's a harder sell right now.

2. Software Selloff Needs Context 

Trade Desk,C3ai,Salesforce, all bleeding. The market is lumping these together as "AI kills software" but these are three very different businesses with three very different problems.

Trade Desk missed on guidance. C3 flat out whiffed on execution. Salesforce actually beat on Q4 but couldn't calm fears about the future. Not every software dip is a buying opportunity, but this kind of panic selling rarely prices things right either.

3. Oil Is Dropping On Iran And Supply 

WTI crude fell to around $64.3 this morning. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resume in Geneva today and Iran is signaling some flexibility. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is about to ship the most crude in nearly three years and other Gulf producers are ramping too.

If talks go well and OPEC+ boosts output at its next meeting, oil has more room to fall.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  

posted $68.1 billion in Q4 revenue and guided Q1 to $78 billion. Both numbers above even the most bullish buyside calls. CEO Jensen Huang went on CNBC and said the market "got it wrong" on AI killing software. Physical AI revenue, including robotaxis and robotics, hit $6 billion for the fiscal year.

Nutanix $NTNX ( ▼ 1.39% )  

landed a multiyear AI infrastructure deal with AMD $AMD ( ▼ 3.52% ), which is putting $150 million into the company. This gives AMD a hardware-software stack to compete with Nvidia's ecosystem. That's the real signal here.

Trade Desk $TTD ( ▼ 1.71% )  

guided Q1 EBITDA to $195 million. Street wanted $223 million. Q4 beat doesn't matter when forward guidance misses by that much in this environment.

C3 ai $AI ( ▼ 2.13% )  

reported revenue of $53.3 million against a $76 million estimate. That's not a miss. That's a credibility problem. The loss per share also came in wider than expected.

IonQ $IONQ ( ▼ 0.81% )  

Q1 revenue to $48-51 million. The Street had $36 million. Full-year guide of $225-245 million also crushed the $191 million consensus. Quantum computing names don't usually deliver numbers like this.

Dell Technologies $DELL ( ▼ 0.03% )  

reports after the bell today. AI server demand is the only line that matters. This will tell us whether the infrastructure buildout is broadening beyond Nvidia's direct customers.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 2.45% )  

also reports after the bell. They rent Nvidia GPUs to AI companies. If their numbers are strong, it confirms demand is real downstream. If not, it raises questions about who's actually using all these chips.

What to Watch

U.S.-Iran Headlines From Geneva (Any-time Today)

Any deal framework sends oil lower fast. Any breakdown or military escalation talk sends it higher. Betting markets have better than 50-50 odds on a limited U.S. strike within a month. Energy desks are watching every headline.

Tariff Escalation Risk 

Trade Rep Greer said rates go to 15 or higher for some countries. No names yet. When names drop, the stocks with the most exposure to those countries will move immediately. The Supreme Court killed the old tariff authority last week and no one knows which deals still hold. Any clarity either way moves multinationals and importers.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Wednesday

Big Index rally today but breadth was ugly underneath, more names down than up on the NYSE despite the green tape. The whole market is a waiting room until Nvidia reports after the bell.

I think we find out tonight whether this AI spending cycle is real or if everyone has been front-running hope.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia's Biggest Earnings Night of the Year
   
   Wall Street expects roughly $66 billion in quarterly revenue. Every major cloud company already told us they're spending more on AI, so the bar is high and Jensen Huang needs to clear it again. I'm watching his guidance on whether this spending continues into 2027 more than the actual numbers.
   

2. Axon Proves AI Can Actually Help Software Companies Axon 
   
   $AXON posted $797 million in revenue against $755 million expected. Software grew 40 percent year over year and AI-powered bookings hit $750 million. Best performer in the S&P 500 today, recovering most of its 2026 losses in one session. This punches a hole in the "AI kills all software" panic from Monday.
   

3. The Premium Booze Boom Is Over Diageo 
   
   $DEO slashed its dividend and cut guidance after Don Julio tequila sales fell hard in the U.S. during the back half of 2025. Consumers are trading down to cheaper brands across spirits, not just tequila, with North America and China both soft. The squeezed consumer is rejecting luxury markups.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

First Solar $FSLR ( ▼ 1.35% )  
missed Q4 estimates and guided full-year revenue well below expectations. Goldman says buy the dip. Baird downgraded to neutral. The Street can't agree on how trade policy shakes out for domestic solar.

Oracle $ORC ( ▼ 1.62% )  
L got upgraded to outperform at Oppenheimer with a $185 target. The stock's valuation has been cut by more than half since September and the firm sees a clean entry point.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.15% )  
rallied after Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD said it would consider a rival bid from Paramount Skydance $PSKY.

Big Name Updates

Lowe's $LOW ( ▼ 1.11% )  
beat on Q4 but issued a weak forward outlook. Housing market is frozen and it is showing up in project spending.

Workday $WDAY ( ▲ 2.62% )  
warned subscription revenue growth is slowing. Stock dropped nearly 10 percent early then fought all the way back. CEO Bhusri pushed back, saying no amount of coding can replicate their system.

PayPal $PYPL ( ▼ 1.41% )  
is rallying on Bloomberg reports that Stripe is weighing a buyout of all or part of the company. Stripe declined to comment.

Blue Owl Capital $OWL ( ▼ 5.09% )  
is selling $1.4 billion in loans at 99.7 cents on the dollar to meet redemptions from older funds. They hosted a call with thousands of advisers after headlines sparked panic. I think this is a real stress test for private credit.

Other Notable Company News

Lucid Group $LCID ( ▼ 0.71% )  
posted a wider loss than expected and is cutting 12 percent of its U.S. workforce.

GoDaddy $GDDY ( ▲ 0.88% )  
guided revenue below estimates, blaming slow AI adoption.

Enphase Energy $ENPH ( ▼ 2.24% )  
upgraded to buy at Jefferies on improving demand and the IQ9 ramp.

Lumen Technologies $LUMN ( ▼ 3.08% )  
says its turnaround is complete with $13 billion in fiber contracts locked in. Anthropic picked them to expand across North America.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year yield flat at 4.05 percent. VIX dropped hard into Nvidia earnings. Dollar slipped to 94.72. Everything feels calm on the surface but breadth tells a different story, with more NYSE names down than up despite the green indexes.

Policy Watch

Fed

Atlanta Fed President Bostic used his farewell message to warn that White House pressure on the central bank is eroding public trust. This is not getting enough attention. An independent Fed is what keeps inflation expectations anchored.

State Of The Union

Trump's record-length address focused on the economy. Three proposals worth tracking:

• Government-backed retirement accounts for workers without employer plans

• A ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes

• Tax cuts jammed through reconciliation

Wolfe Research noted he ducked affordability concerns entirely, blaming Democrats instead. Full-year GDP came in at 2.2 percent, the slowest since the pandemic year.

Trade

Trade Rep Greer said the 15 percent global tariff will only apply "where appropriate," not across the board. That is legally shaky since the authority it relies on requires nondiscriminatory application. He also confirmed no escalation on China ahead of a Trump-Xi meeting. Current Chinese tariffs sit at 35 to 50 percent depending on the product.

International

• Zimbabwe banned raw lithium exports to force local processing

• Mexico approved a shift to a 40-hour workweek over four years

• Shanghai cut its homebuying residency requirement from 3 years to 1

• OPEC+ expected to resume modest supply hikes

What to Watch

Salesforce And Snowflake Earnings Tonight
Two more reads on whether enterprise software spending is holding up. Salesforce $CRM was up heading into the print. If both beat, the "software is dead" trade loses steam fast.

Memory Chip Supply Crisis 
A Dallas Fed survey respondent flagged pandemic-like constraints in memory chips with prices up sharply in just two weeks. HP already blamed rising memory costs in its guidance. This could hit the entire hardware chain if it sticks.

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac 
White House adviser Pulte said an IPO this year is "very likely." That would be a major event for housing and mortgage markets.

Optical Fiber Conference March 17-19
Citi raised targets on Corning $GLW and Lumentum $LITE ahead of this event and added upside catalyst watches on both. Fiber is the picks-and-shovels play for AI infrastructure.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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Good morning.

Futures are green. The calendar ischaotic.

Trump gave the longest State of the Union ever last night. Two hours of victory laps on an economy most Americans aren't feeling yet. Nvidia after the bell is the event, and it lands in a market that's been trading AI mood swings more than fundamentals for weeks.

Let's dig into it...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Tonight Is A $230 Billion Coin Flip 

Wall Street expects $1.53 EPS on $65.8 billion in revenue. The company has beaten for 13 straight quarters but the stock dropped after half of its last ten prints. Options are pricing roughly 5 points of movement in either direction. Data center revenue and the Q1 guide are the only two lines that matter tonight.

2. The Software Scare Trade Isn't Over 

Anthropic's partnership focused launch gave the sector a bounce yesterday. Then Workday $WDAY guided weak overnight, with HR workflows named as a direct AI target. The S&P 500 software index is down 23 on the year. Until earnings stabilize across the group, every AI headline is a landmine.

3. Iran Deadline Hits Early March And Oil Knows It 

Trump's 10 to 15 day window for a deal is creeping up. Geneva talks resume Thursday. WTI is sitting near $66 with Brent at $71, both near seven-month highs. If talks collapse, Swissquote sees WTI heading toward $80. If a deal lands, that premium unwinds fast.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 0.36% )  

Reports right after Nvidia tonight. The software sector is down 23 on the year and this is the biggest enterprise name left to report. If guidance holds, it could stabilize the whole group.

First Solar $FSLR ( ▼ 1.35% )  

Full year revenue to $4.9-$5.2 billion. Street wanted $6.12 billion. That's not a miss, that's a gap. Q4 EPS came in at $4.84 versus $5.15 expected.

Workday $WDAY ( ▲ 2.62% )  

Q1 subscription revenue at $2.34 billion, just below the $2.35 billion consensus. Normally a rounding error. Not when your core product sits directly in AI's crosshairs. Watch whether this drags Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 0.36% )  sentiment into the close.

Axon Enterprise $AXON ( ▲ 0.62% )  

beat Q4 on both lines. $2.15 EPS versus $1.60 expected, revenue $797 million versus $755 million. Guided 2026 revenue growth above Street estimates. Defense and public safety keep printing while software bleeds.

Cava Group $CAVA ( ▼ 0.98% )  

crossed $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time. Q4 beat on earnings and revenue. Same-store sales guidance of 3-5 for 2026 topped expectations. This is the restaurant growth name right now.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  

up slightly ahead of tonight's print. Trading at 24 times forward earnings, nearly 30 below its three-year average multiple. The stock is only up 2 on the year. The discount is either a buying opportunity or the market telling you something. We find out at 4:01.

What to Watch

After The Bell:

Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake Three names that could individually move the market, all reporting tonight.

For Nvidia, data center revenue and the Q1 guide around $72 billion are the numbers. Blackwell Ultra shipments and China commentary are the wildcards. Salesforce and Snowflake need to prove enterprise software spending is holding up.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks, Geneva (Thursday)
Trump's deadline expires early March. Polymarket prices a 37 chance of a U.S. strike by March 7. If talks fail, WTI pushes past $70. If a deal surfaces, the oil premium unwinds and defense names give back gains.

Three Fed Speakers Today 
Barkin, Schmid, and Musalem. Two officials yesterday showed zero appetite to cut. Bond traders are quietly pricing cuts extending into 2027 on fears AI reshapes the labor market faster than expected. Listen for any acknowledgment of that shift.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Happy Tuesday

Markets caught a real bid today after Monday's software panic. A massive chip deal helped calm nerves. I still think we're trading too much on headlines and not enough on fundamentals.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Software Panic Fades 
   Enterprise software stocks took a beating yesterday on fears that AI would make them obsolete overnight. Today they bounced back. Anthropic clarified its new AI agent is built to work with existing software, not replace it entirely. The death of software has been greatly exaggerated imho.
   

2. The 10% Reality 
   The new global tariffs officially kicked in at midnight. Markets rallied simply because the rate landed at the stated level rather than the higher threat floated over the weekend. Certainty always beats uncertainty on Wall Street.
   

3. Meta's Massive Hardware Bet 
   Meta Platforms $META agreed to buy 6 gigawatts of computing power from Advanced Micro Devices $AMD over five years. The deal includes warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, roughly a 10% stake. This locks their roadmaps together for the long haul.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Home Depot $HD ( ▼ 1.04% )  
beat earnings estimates for the first time in a year. Management said they are done raising prices after leaning on hikes to offset costs last year.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 1.25% )  
will slash US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic by up to half starting in 2027. The obesity drug price war with Eli Lilly is escalating. NVO shares are now down roughly three-quarters from the mid-2024 high.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.09% )  
is moving some Mac Mini production from Asia to a Foxconn facility in Texas. Also confirmed plans to buy over 100 million advanced chips from TSMC's Arizona plant.

IBM $IBM ( ▲ 0.9% )  
bounced back after Monday's brutal selloff. Jefferies called it a "near-term sentiment overhang" and said the mainframe business is far more resilient than the market gave it credit for.

Big Name Updates

Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 0.36% )  
rallied ahead of its earnings report tomorrow. It trades around 13x forward earnings now, which puts it firmly in value territory if the customer base holds.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 2.18% )  
is suing the California DMV to overturn a ruling on its Autopilot marketing. The company already made the required fixes but wants the false advertiser label removed from its record.

JPMorgan Chase $JPM ( ▼ 1.39% )  
held its investor day and highlighted momentum in investment banking and trading. Multiple analysts hiked earnings forecasts. CEO Jamie Dimon called Monday's AI fears overblown.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.01% )  
barely moved despite the AMD-Meta news. DA Davidson put out a note arguing NVDA "is not a bellwether anymore" and that the market has picked other AI winners. Earnings tomorrow after close.

Other Notable Company News

Whirlpool $WHR ( ▼ 4.03% )  
announced $800 million in new shares to pay off debt. Stock got hit hard.

Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▼ 0.88% )  
guided below expectations for Q1 and disclosed that the SEC Enforcement Division opened an investigation tied to its compounded semaglutide disclosures.

Dillard's $DDS ( ▼ 5.01% )  
missed revenue targets. Winter storms shut down a third of its stores during the quarter.

Blue Owl Capital $OWL ( ▼ 5.09% )  
got downgraded to hold by Deutsche Bank as private credit faces growing skepticism.

Arm Holdings $ARM ( ▼ 5.17% )  
got a price target raise from BofA. The firm now sees ARM's CPU market share reaching 20-25% by 2030.

Stripe priced its latest employee share sale at a $159 billion valuation.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields barely flinched as the new trade tariffs took effect. The 10-year sat around 4.04%. The dollar pushed higher against the yen after China hit Japan with new export restrictions.

Consumer confidence came in at 91.2 for February, better than expected. But write-in responses still skew pessimistic, with prices, trade, and politics on everyone's mind.

Policy Watch

The Fed 
Austan Goolsbee said rate cuts aren't happening until inflation moves closer to 2%. He has a vote on the Fed's rate-setting committee this year, so that carries weight. Separately, Lisa Cook warned that AI could displace white-collar workers in a way that rate cuts can't solve.

Her suggestion: education and workforce policy would do more than cheaper borrowing.

Trade and Tariffs

• Customs stopped collecting the emergency tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last week

• The 10% global tariff is now live for 150 days

• The administration is already drafting new Section 232 national security levies on batteries, cast iron, plastic piping, industrial chemicals, and telecom equipment

• FedEx $FDX filed a lawsuit demanding refunds for duties paid under the old tariffs

• China said it's open to a 6th round of trade talks but reserves the right to adjust countermeasures

International 
China banned exports of critical minerals and military-use goods to several major Japanese companies, including parts of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The trigger: Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi recently warned that Japan could get pulled into a conflict over Taiwan. China views Taiwan as its territory and has been retaliating ever since, cutting flights and warning tourists away from Japan.

On a separate front, Japan's Mainichi newspaper reported that Takaichi pushed back on the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates during a closed-door meeting with the central bank's governor. She favors looser monetary policy, which is good for Japanese stocks but has bond investors nervous about more government spending.

What to Watch

State of the Union 
The President speaks tonight at 9pm ET. Watch for a forced pledge from tech companies to cover the rising electricity costs from their data centers. New cost-cutting measures also expected.

Nvidia Earnings
The biggest test for the AI trade this week. Reports Wednesday after close. DA Davidson thinks the stock is priced for a 2026 peak in AI demand, which would be a problem if Jensen Huang says otherwise. Or confirms it.

Workday and Salesforce Earnings 
Both have been hammered this year on AI displacement fears. If they can show they're not losing customers, the oversold case gets a lot stronger. If guidance is weak, software has another leg down.

Labor Freeze 
ADP data shows employee turnover hit a nine-year low. People are staying put. Apollo's Torsten Slok raised his economic tail risk estimate from 10% to 30%, partly on concerns that AI could trigger a sharp rise in unemployment. Friday's payroll report will tell us more about whether this freeze in hiring is temporary or structural.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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