By Trent Klarenbach, BSA AgEc, PAg, founder and lead analyst, Klarenbach Research

October 9, 2026

In short: In September, I asked for confirmation before getting bullish on corn and wheat, and I expected pullbacks first.

Confirmation never came.

Corn failed at $5.40, spring wheat never cleared $7.60, and the pullbacks arrived after two bearish USDA reports.

Soybeans did pull back as I expected, but not as far as any of the levels I named.

This post looks back at my September analysis against today's prices.

It is a review of what I wrote, not a new call.

Corn

What I wrote (Corn Futures & Feed Barley: Western Canada Market Trends, Sept 16): "Maintain long exposure on a full daily/weekly candle close above $5.40. Below $5.40, consider short positions targeting downside objectives at $5.20 and $5.00."

I also flagged "a probable pullback to test the $5.15–$5.20 range" and "a potential retest of breakout support levels down toward the $4.80–$5.00 range."

What price did: December corn settled at $5.34 1/4 on Sept 16.

It closed at $5.43 on Sept 21, its highest close since Sept 2, but that close above $5.40 didn't hold, and it didn't close above $5.40 again.

After the Sept 30 Grain Stocks report, December fell 21 1/4 cents to $5.00 3/4.

Today's WASDE took it down another 20 1/2 cents to $4.79 3/4, the lowest close since Aug 13.

Scorecard: The $5.40 pivot held as resistance. $5.20 and $5.00 were both hit, and price is now at the bottom of my $4.80–$5.00 zone.

The one daily close above $5.40 was a false signal, which is why I wanted weekly confirmation.

One note: my chart used the nearby contract, and these settlements are for December.

Spring Wheat

What I wrote (Spring Wheat Strategy: Target Levels for Cash & Futures, Sept 16): I expected "a pullback from current nearby futures levels ($7.49) to test moving average support around $6.90–$7.00," and wrote that "a clear breakout above $7.60 is required to confirm a Stage 2 markup toward the next target at $8.76."

The Saskatchewan CWRS index was $8.59/bu: "Structurally bearish below $8.70… bullish on a confirmed close above it."

What price did: December spring wheat settled at $7.56 on Sept 16 and $7.46 1/4 on Sept 21.

I found no close above $7.60.

Today it settled at $6.95 1/4.

Scorecard: The breakout didn't happen, so $8.76 is off the table for now.

The pullback I expected has landed inside my $6.90–$7.00 zone.

My Klarenbach SK CWRS Price found a low of $8.30 before closing this week at $8.47.

HRW / KC Wheat

What I wrote (HRW & CPSR Wheat Market Trends: KC Futures & SK Cash Analysis, Sept 17): KC was around $7.95. "Before pressing into the $9.00+ zone, a short-term pullback is anticipated," to $7.60, then $7.40, then $6.95–$7.00.

I suggested taking "some risk off the table at current levels," with re-entry "on a breakout above $8.50 or on a corrective dip into the $6.50–$7.00 support zone."

For CPSR, "a sustained move above $300/tonne" was needed to open $330.

What price did: December KC went from $7.99 1/2 on Sept 16 to $7.36 1/4 on Oct 8, and settled at $7.19 1/4 today, a two-month low.

Scorecard: $7.60 and $7.40 both gave way, and price is now nearing $6.95–$7.00.

Taking risk off near $7.95 was the right call.

KC never pressed toward $9.00.

The Klarenbach SK CPSR Price Index found a high of $281.21 and closed this week at $261.44.

Soybeans

What I wrote (Soybean Price Forecast: Key Support Target & Spread Trends, Sept 18): "NOV Soybeans look ready to pull back. First level of interest is 1167, then 1240. But ultimately, I see 1200 in the works."

What price did: 

November soybeans closed at $13.19 3/4 on Sept 17, the session before that note. They closed at $13.28 on Sept 21, then $12.93 on Sept 30 after the stocks report.

Today they hit a six-week low of $12.69 3/4 right after the WASDE, then recovered to close up 4 1/2 cents at $12.92.

Scorecard: The pullback call was right on direction: about 27 cents close to close, and roughly 50 cents to today's intraday low.

But none of my levels traded.

Today's low stayed above 1240, 1200 and 1167.

That's a partial hit.

Drivers

• Sept 30 Grain Stocks: Corn came in at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% year over year and above every trade estimate. Wheat came in at 1.846 billion bushels, down 14% and about in line with estimates. Soybean stocks were 315 million bushels, down 3%.

• Oct 9 WASDE: USDA raised the corn yield 2.7 bu/acre to 181.2 when the trade expected a cut, adding 234 million bushels to the crop. Soybeans came in at a record 53.1 bu/acre and 4.56 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks up 5 million bushels to 315 million and exports raised 10 million bushels on Chinese buying. U.S. wheat carryover rose 23 million bushels to 740 million.

• Macro and trade: The U.S. dollar is near a 1.5-year high. Black Sea wheat is moving again, and HRW country got drought-breaking rains. Corn export inspections hit a five-week high in mid-September, while wheat exports have been mixed.

What to watch

• Corn: how it trades in the $4.80–$5.00 zone I named in September.

• Spring wheat: $6.90–$7.00. KC: $6.95–$7.00 and the wider $6.50–$7.00 band.

• Soybeans: whether the pullback carries on toward the September levels or the WASDE-day recovery holds.

• Harvest pace, CONAB's Brazil numbers on Oct 15, and the November USDA Crop Production report.

CWAD versus CWRS is a cash comparison. Canada Western Amber Durum has no liquid futures contract a Prairie farm can hedge on, so there is no durum futures price to set against a spring wheat futures price. The spread that matters is the elevator bid for durum minus the elevator bid for Canada Western Red Spring, in the same region, on the same day.

What the spread is

Spread = CWAD bid minus CWRS bid, in Canadian dollars per tonne. Positive means durum is bid above spring wheat. Negative means it is bid below.

The bids are quoted on different protein specifications. PDQ, owned by the Alberta Wheat Commission and published by Grainews, reports 1 CWAD at 13.0 protein and 1 CWRS at 13.5. That makes this a market spread between two different wheats, not a like-for-like quality comparison.

Saskatchewan CWAD and CWRS cash, 1 October 2026

Canadian dollars per tonne. Source: PDQ via Grainews. Regional averages of posted bids, not a bid for your station. Spread calculated by the Klarenbach Grain Report.

Same day, same province, and the sign of the spread flips. Durum was $20.54 under spring wheat in the northwest and $11.39 over it in the southeast. Durum bids sat within about $12 of each other across the three regions that posted. CWRS bids ranged about $21 across the same three regions. One provincial spread number would hide that. Use the two bids from your own delivery points.

Why there is no futures leg

Spring wheat has a futures reference: Minneapolis hard red spring wheat. It is a reference, not the bid. Basis, protein, grade and the delivery window sit between the screen and the elevator. Durum has no equivalent. Kansas City and Chicago wheat are related markets, not a durum price. A change in the CWAD to CWRS spread therefore reaches a farm only through cash bids. The detail is on the Saskatchewan durum prices page and the Saskatchewan CWRS prices page.

How to use the spread

1. Write down both bids from the same delivery points, on the same day, for the same delivery window.

2. Confirm grade and protein on each bid. A 13.0 durum bid and a 13.5 spring wheat bid are the quoted standards, not your bin.

3. Record the spread weekly. One reading says little. The direction and the extremes of your own series say more.

4. Read the cash spread alongside the price chart for the class you actually hold. The method is in the technical analysis guide and the prairie wheat chart guide.

5. Make the decision inside your marketing plan: how much is priced, at what level, and what tells you the read was wrong. The framework is in the Prairie grain marketing guide.

What the spread cannot tell you

• It is not a forecast. It records where two cash bids sat on one day.

• It does not capture quality discounts, buyer coverage, delivery windows or contract terms, all of which move a real bid.

• It does not tell you which crop to grow. Rotation, agronomy and costs decide that.

Frequently asked questions

What is the CWAD to CWRS spread?

It is the elevator bid for Canada Western Amber Durum minus the elevator bid for Canada Western Red Spring, in the same region on the same day, in Canadian dollars per tonne.

Can I hedge the durum side of the spread?

No. Canada Western Amber Durum has no liquid futures contract a Prairie farm can hedge on. The spring wheat side relates to Minneapolis futures, but the durum side moves only through the cash bid.

Why does the spread differ between Saskatchewan regions?

On 1 October 2026 PDQ averages, durum was $20.54 per tonne under spring wheat in the northwest and $11.39 over in the southeast. Regional supply, freight and buyer coverage differ, so use your own delivery point bids rather than a provincial number.

Editorial analysis for information only. This is not individualized marketing, trading or financial advice. Prices are regional averages of posted bids and are not a bid for your delivery point.

Durum is a different kind of market from canola or spring wheat. There is no futures contract a Prairie farm can hedge on, so the price a grower receives is the cash bid and nothing else. That makes the elevator bid, the quality it is quoted on and the buyer behind it the whole story.

This guide explains how durum is priced in Canada, what drives it, how it relates to spring wheat, and how to turn that into a selling plan. Throughout, it links to deeper analysis from the Klarenbach Grain Report durum archive.

How Durum Is Priced

Canadian durum is Canada Western Amber Durum, or CWAD. Cash bids are quoted by grade and protein. PDQ, owned by the Alberta Wheat Commission and published by Grainews, quotes 1 CWAD at 13.0 protein. A real bid then moves with grade, protein, buyer and delivery window.

On 1 October 2026, PDQ reported 1 CWAD 13.0 averages of $297.90 per tonne in northwest Saskatchewan, $296.94 in the southwest and $308.96 in the southeast. Northeast Saskatchewan was not posted that day. These are averages of posted bids, not a bid for any one delivery point. The dated regional table is kept current on the Saskatchewan durum prices page.

Why There Is No Hedge

Spring wheat has a futures reference in Minneapolis. Canola has ICE. Durum has no equivalent that a Prairie farm can use. Kansas City and Chicago wheat are related markets, and they are useful context, but they are not a durum price and they are not a hedge.

The practical result is that price risk is managed through sales timing, contract structure and delivery choices rather than through a futures position. It also changes how a chart read works. In our 11 September 2026 note on durum, futures liquidity and cash wheat, the open section recorded the rally off the 2025 lows at about 50 percent in Chicago wheat, about 70 percent in Kansas City and about 40 percent in Minneapolis, and stated that durum is cash only with no futures leg.

What Drives Durum Prices

Export demand

Durum is an export crop. The Government of Saskatchewan reports that Saskatchewan supplied about 36 per cent of world durum exports and 82 per cent of Canada's durum exports in 2024. Industry data published in Miller Magazine put Canada's exports at about 83 per cent of its durum production over 2017 to 2021 and described Canada as the world's largest durum exporter. When a market that size depends on foreign mills, the buyer's need for supply sets the bid.

End use and quality

Durum is milled for pasta and couscous. Mills pay for quality and protein, which is why bids are quoted on a specification and why a price without a grade attached is not a price. Canadian demand has been described as strong from Europe and North Africa.

The Canadian dollar

Durum is priced in Canadian dollars but competes in a US-dollar world. The currency changes what Canadian durum costs a foreign buyer. Our currency analysis tracks the CAD/USD trends that matter for grain returns.

Saskatchewan crop conditions

Durum is grown mainly in southern Saskatchewan, so conditions there set the supply side. Timing and the size of the crop shape what buyers will pay and when.

Durum Against Spring Wheat

The comparison that matters is cash against cash: the local CWAD bid against the local CWRS bid, in the same region on the same day. It affects what you seed and when you sell. These notes cover it from several angles:

• Durum vs. HRS Wheat: Prairie Spread Reaches Key Support

• Durum vs CWRS Ratio: April 2026 Price Analysis

• Seed Durum or Wheat Question

• Saskatchewan CWRS Prices and Minneapolis Spring Wheat for the spring wheat side of the comparison

Reading the Charts: Technical Analysis for Durum

A cash market can still be charted. The Klarenbach durum notes follow Saskatchewan cash alongside US and European durum charts, and read trend, support and resistance the same way as any other market.

• Market structure. Every market cycles through accumulation, uptrend, distribution and decline. Knowing the stage changes what a rally means. Start with The 4 Stages of Market Structure.

• Durum cycles. Understanding Durum Market Cycles covers how the durum price moves through its own cycle.

• Seasonal patterns. Durum Wheat Seasonals looks at the calendar.

• Current trend notes. Durum Market Trends: Saskatchewan, Europe and US Charts and Durum Wheat Trends: Saskatchewan Cash and Global Market Outlook.

New to charting? The technical analysis guide builds the method from the ground up.

When to Sell Durum: Building a Marketing Plan

Nobody sells the high consistently. The aim is a strong average price with less stress. With no hedge available, the plan has to work through cash sales:

• Sell incrementally. Set price targets in advance and sell in pieces rather than making one all-or-nothing decision.

• Sell down to your sleep point. If unsold grain is keeping you awake, you are over-exposed. The argument is in Sell Down to Your Sleep Point.

• Compare bids. A cash market pays differently by buyer, grade and delivery window. Get more than one bid for the same specification.

• Watch the spread to spring wheat. Track the cash spread over time. A move in the spread reaches you only through cash bids.

The full framework is in the Prairie grain marketing guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is there a durum futures contract I can hedge on?

No liquid durum futures contract is available to a Prairie farm. Durum is a cash-traded market, so the elevator bid for Canada Western Amber Durum is the price. Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat are related markets, not a durum hedge.

What determines the price of durum in Saskatchewan?

Cash prices are built from export demand, quality and protein, the Canadian dollar, Saskatchewan crop conditions and each buyer's need for supply. With no futures benchmark, the cash bid carries all of that at once.

How do I compare durum with spring wheat?

Compare your local CWAD bid with your local CWRS bid, in the same region on the same day. That cash spread, tracked over time, is more useful than a spread between US futures contracts.

Where can I see current Saskatchewan durum cash prices?

The Saskatchewan durum prices page carries dated regional cash averages from PDQ, published through Grainews. They are averages of posted bids, not a bid for your delivery point.

Every durum report we publish is collected on our Durum page.

The Klarenbach Grain Report provides objective, chart-based analysis of Canadian grain markets. This guide is educational and is not individualized trading or marketing advice. Export statistics are from the Government of Saskatchewan (2024) and Miller Magazine (2017 to 2021).

Spring wheat is the one major Prairie crop where the futures market, the currency and the local bid all pull on the price at the same time. A grower sees a Canadian-dollar-per-tonne bid for Canada Western Red Spring. Behind it sit a Minneapolis futures price in US dollars per bushel, an exchange rate and a basis.

This guide explains how CWRS is priced, what drives it, how to read the charts and basis, and how to turn that into a selling plan. Throughout, it links to deeper analysis from the Klarenbach Grain Report hard red spring wheat archive.

How CWRS Is Priced

The futures reference for Canada Western Red Spring is Minneapolis hard red spring wheat. It is a reference, not the bid. Four things sit between the Minneapolis screen and the elevator:

• Currency. Minneapolis trades in US dollars per bushel. A Prairie bid is in Canadian dollars per tonne. A tonne of wheat is about 36.74 bushels.

• Basis. The difference between the local cash bid and the converted futures price. It reflects freight, buyer demand, handling margins and delivery timing.

• Protein and grade. CWRS bids are quoted on a specification. PDQ, owned by the Alberta Wheat Commission and published by Grainews, quotes 1 CWRS at 13.5 protein.

• Delivery window. A bid for prompt delivery differs from a deferred bid.

Cash price is the converted futures price plus or minus basis. A grower can hold a view on each part separately.

On 1 October 2026, PDQ reported 1 CWRS 13.5 averages of $318.44 per tonne in northwest Saskatchewan, $307.56 in the southwest, $311.23 in the northeast and $297.57 in the southeast. These are averages of posted bids, not a bid for any one delivery point. The dated regional table is kept current on the Saskatchewan CWRS prices page.

What Drives Spring Wheat Prices

The Minneapolis futures market

Minneapolis reflects the North American spring wheat crop and the wider wheat complex. Kansas City and Chicago wheat are different classes with their own drivers, but the three markets influence each other. Our wheat futures breakdown shows how we read the complex together.

The Canadian dollar

CWRS is priced in Canadian dollars but competes in a US-dollar world. An exchange-rate change moves the Canadian bid even when Minneapolis does not. Our currency analysis tracks the CAD/USD trends that matter for grain returns.

Export demand

Canada is a major wheat exporter. News reports in 2024 described Canada as on track to be the world's third-largest wheat exporter for a second year in a row, behind Russia and the European Union. Export demand and the pace of shipments shape how aggressively buyers bid for supply.

Positioning

Fund positioning in Minneapolis, reported weekly by the CFTC, can show when the market is crowded on one side. Our spring wheat notes that combine futures, cash, basis and the Commitments of Traders report include Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures, Cash, Basis and Commitment of Traders.

Understanding CWRS Basis in Saskatchewan

Basis is where local knowledge pays. A few practical points:

• Basis varies by place. The 1 October 2026 PDQ averages above ranged from $297.57 in the southeast to $318.44 in the northwest.

• Basis varies by delivery month. Deferred basis can differ from prompt basis.

• Basis can move against futures. Strong basis with weak futures, or the reverse, is information. Futures and basis can be priced separately.

A strong basis is strong relative to its own history for your delivery point and time of year, not a fixed number. Tracking it is the only way to recognize a genuinely strong bid. Our basis notes include:

• Hard Red Spring Wheat: Saskatchewan Basis and Price Targets

• Hard Red Spring Wheat: Futures Fall as Basis Improves

• Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures, CWRS Cash and Basis Analysis

• Wheat and Saskatchewan CWRS and Basis

• HRS, CWRS and Basis

Reading the Charts: Technical Analysis for Spring Wheat

Price charts strip out opinion and show what buyers and sellers are doing. The tools we use in every spring wheat report:

• Chart selection. Which chart matches which class is covered in How to Read a Prairie Wheat Chart.

• Moving averages. Long-term averages define the trend and act as support and resistance, as in Hard Red Spring Wheat: Testing the 50-Month Moving Average.

• Multiple timeframes. The monthly, weekly and daily charts do not always agree. See Spring Wheat Charts Show Multi-Timeframe Confusion.

• Highs and hurdles. Minneapolis HRSW Analysis: Higher Highs vs. Technical Hurdles weighs trend against resistance.

• Market structure. Every market cycles through accumulation, uptrend, distribution and decline. Start with The 4 Stages of Market Structure.

New to charting? The technical analysis guide builds the method from the ground up.

Spring Wheat Against Durum

Durum has no futures contract, so the comparison with spring wheat is cash against cash. See Durum vs. HRS Wheat: Prairie Spread Reaches Key Support, Durum vs CWRS Ratio: April 2026 Price Analysis and the Saskatchewan durum prices page.

When to Sell Spring Wheat: Building a Marketing Plan

Nobody sells the high consistently. The aim is a strong average price with less stress. The framework we advocate:

• Sell incrementally. Ladder sales at price levels set in advance. Our spring wheat strategy note covers target levels for cash and futures.

• Sell down to your sleep point. If unsold grain keeps you awake, you are over-exposed. The argument is in Sell Down to Your Sleep Point.

• Separate futures and basis decisions. You do not have to price both at once.

• Follow price, not headlines. The mindset is in Think Like A Trader.

The full framework is in the Prairie grain marketing guide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which futures contract tracks Canadian spring wheat?

Minneapolis hard red spring wheat futures are the reference for Canada Western Red Spring. They are a reference, not the bid. Currency, basis, protein, grade and the delivery window sit between the screen and the elevator.

How is the CWRS cash price calculated?

Convert the US-dollar-per-bushel Minneapolis futures price to Canadian dollars per tonne, then add or subtract basis. A tonne of wheat is about 36.74 bushels.

What is a good basis for CWRS?

There is no universal number. Basis is strong or weak relative to its own history for your delivery point and time of year. Record local bids against nearby futures through a season, and the strong bids become clear.

Where can I see current Saskatchewan CWRS prices?

The Saskatchewan CWRS prices page carries dated regional cash averages from PDQ, published through Grainews. They are averages of posted bids, not a bid for your delivery point.

We collect every spring wheat report we publish on our Hard Red Spring Wheat page.

The Klarenbach Grain Report provides objective, chart-based analysis of Canadian grain markets. This guide is educational and is not individualized trading or marketing advice. Wheat export ranking is from news reports published in 2024.

The Commitments of Traders report shows who holds open positions in a futures market, by trader type, as of a given Tuesday.

It does not show price direction or timing. It shows positioning: who is long, who is short, and how crowded the trade has become.

Used as a check on a chart read, it is useful. Used as a signal on its own, it fails often enough to be dangerous.

What the report is

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the report weekly. Positions are as of Tuesday's close and are normally released the following Friday afternoon, Eastern time.

A holiday or a government shutdown can delay it. Coverage includes the CBOT grains and oilseeds, Minneapolis spring wheat and ICE canola, the markets Prairie marketers watch.

The two versions that matter

• Legacy report. Splits positions into commercial and non-commercial traders, plus a small non-reportable group.

• Disaggregated report. Splits positions into producer, merchant, processor and user; swap dealers; managed money; other reportables; and non-reportable.

For grain marketing, the disaggregated report is more useful. Managed money is the fund category most often quoted in market news. Producers, merchants, processors and users are the commercial hedgers: handlers, crushers and end users managing physical risk. They are a different kind of trader with different motives, which is why you should read them separately.

Four numbers to read

1. Net position. Longs minus shorts for one category. A managed money net short means funds hold more short than long contracts.

2. Weekly change. Whether the net position grew or shrank since last week. A shrinking net short is short covering. A growing net short is new selling.

3. Open interest. The total number of open contracts. Rising open interest alongside a price move suggests new money. Falling open interest suggests positions are being closed.

4. Position against its own history. A net position means more at an extreme of its own range than at the middle. An extreme can last for a long time.

What it is good for

The report is a crowding gauge. Heavy fund net shorts can fuel a sharp short-covering rally if price turns up. A heavy fund net long can leave a market exposed to liquidation if price turns down. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and neither says when. The report adds weight to a chart read that price has already confirmed. It does not replace one.

What it cannot do

• It is stale on release. The data is as of Tuesday and arrives on Friday. The market has moved by then.

• Categories are by business purpose. Traders are classified by what they mainly do. A participant can hold both physical and speculative risk, so the labels are an approximation.

• It counts contracts, not forecasts. A fund can be net short and still be right.

• It says nothing about your cash bid. Basis, freight and buyer demand sit between the screen and the elevator.

A weekly routine

1. After the Friday release, note the managed money net position for the markets you price: canola, spring wheat, soybeans.

2. Record the change from last week and where the position sits against the past year.

3. Open the price chart for the same market. Has price confirmed the positioning, or is it fighting it?

4. If positioning and chart agree, treat it as support for the plan you already have. If they disagree, trust price and note it.

5. Act only through your marketing plan: how much is priced, at what level, and what tells you the read was wrong. The framework is in the Prairie grain marketing guide, and the chart method is in the technical analysis guide.

For how a cash bid relates to the futures screen, see Saskatchewan canola basis, explained.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Commitments of Traders report released?

The CFTC publishes it weekly. Positions are as of Tuesday's close and are normally released the following Friday afternoon, Eastern time. A holiday or a government shutdown can delay the release.

Does the COT report cover canola?

Yes. The CFTC report includes ICE Futures canola, alongside CBOT grains and Minneapolis spring wheat. The report lists fund positions in canola under the managed money category.

Is the COT report a buy or sell signal?

No. It shows positioning as of a Tuesday, released days later. It can show when a market is crowded on one side, but it does not time a turn. Use it as a check on a price chart read, not as a signal on its own.

Editorial analysis for information only. This is not individualized marketing, trading or financial advice. Futures trading carries risk of loss.

Focus on the price, not the noise.

That is the whole idea behind technical analysis, and it is the method behind every Klarenbach Grain Report call.

This guide pulls together the tools we use most often (market structure, moving averages, Fibonacci, chart patterns, and the psychology that trips up even experienced growers) and shows how each one applies to selling canola, wheat, durum, and the rest of the prairie crop.

What technical analysis is and why it works on grain

Technical analysis studies price itself: where it has been, how it is trending, and how it behaves at important levels.

It does not ignore fundamentals, but it treats them as already reflected in the chart.

In our experience, news follows price, not the other way around.

By the time the story is in the headlines, the move is usually well underway.

Critics say charts are tea leaves, especially in thinly traded markets.

The reason they work is simple: markets are a collection of human behaviours, and humans repeat themselves whether they are trading a tech stock or a bin of canola.

Fear, greed, hope, and regret leave the same footprints on every chart. None of these tools is a crystal ball.

Technical analysis is an art, not a science.

We deal in probabilities, not certainties, and the goal is a marketing plan you can execute, not a perfect prediction.

The four stages of market structure

An old elevator hand once summed up grain marketing as "buy low, sell high."

Simple to say, extraordinarily hard to do.

The most effective way we know to do it is to identify which stage of market structure a crop is in.

Every market cycles through four stages:

• Stage 1: Accumulation: Prices go sideways after a decline. Selling pressure dries up and stronger hands quietly build positions.

• Stage 2: Markup: Price breaks out of the base and trends higher. This is the stage to own the crop and delay sales.

• Stage 3: Distribution: The rally stalls into a choppy top. Early buyers sell into strength while the crowd is still bullish.

• Stage 4: Decline: Price breaks down and trends lower. Unpriced grain loses value every week.

The structure appears in every asset class (stocks, currencies, wheat, red lentils) and on every timeframe from one-minute to monthly charts.

The optimum time to buy or hold is the breakout from Accumulation into Markup. The optimum time to sell is the breakdown from Distribution into Decline.

For a recent example on a corn, soybean, and wheat composite, see The Most Important Chart in Agriculture, and for a worked video example, The 4 Stages of Market Structure.

The producer's question is always the same: which stage is my crop in right now?

Your answer should shape whether you price aggressively, hold, or wait.

Moving averages: your compass

When a chart looks like a heart monitor, you need a compass.

That is the moving average (MA), a lagging indicator that smooths out daily chatter and shows the underlying trend.

• Simple moving average (SMA) weights every price in the window equally.

• Exponential moving average (EMA) weights recent prices more heavily, so it reacts faster.

A rising average signals an uptrend; a falling one, a downtrend. Price holding above a rising average is constructive.

Price trading above a declining average is a warning; that level often fails to hold.

In our reports, you will see the 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-period averages used across timeframes, because a crop can be in an uptrend on one and a downtrend on another.

Use multiple timeframes

Monthly charts set the big picture, weekly charts the trend, and daily charts the timing. When they agree, conviction is high.

When they disagree (a rising monthly average but a weekly downtrend, for example), the honest answer is "mixed signals," and the right marketing response is usually patience and smaller decisions.

Our July 2026 durum analysis is a good example of reading conflicting timeframes.

Fibonacci: your map

Once you know the direction, you need to know where the market may pause.

After a large move, prices usually pull back before the trend resumes.

Fibonacci retracements measure that pullback against the prior move at key ratios:

• 23.6%: a shallow pause in a very strong trend.

• 38.2%: the most common pullback level.

• 50%: a halfway retracement many traders watch.

• 61.8% (the golden ratio): a deep test. A bounce here means the trend is still alive.

• 78.6%: a very deep retracement; failure here usually means the trend has changed.

Fibonacci extensions work in the other direction: they project how far a move may travel after a pullback completes, which is how we set price targets.

It sounds like voodoo, but it works partly because so many participants watch the same levels.

Our video primer, Moving Averages, Fibonacci and Dead Cat Bounces, walks through each one on a live chart.

Chart patterns and warning signs

The dead cat bounce

The most dangerous pattern has a grim name.

A dead cat bounce is a small, reflexive rally inside a falling market.

It lures people in who believe the worst is over, then the floor drops out again.

Learn to recognize its three parts: the drop, the small bounce, and the failure.

Selling into the bounce, rather than waiting for the old high, is often the best decision of a down year.

Head and shoulders

A head-and-shoulders top is three peaks with the middle one highest, sitting on a support line called the neckline.

A break below the neckline projects a downside target, which is why we flag the pattern early, as we did in our Canola Futures and Saskatchewan Basis Outlook.

Momentum and divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed of price moves on a 0–100 scale; readings above 70 are considered overbought and below 30 oversold.

The most useful signal is divergence: price makes a new high while RSI makes a lower high. That warns the trend is weakening before price turns.

Our Iowa Farmland Value Study shows bearish divergence on a century of land values.

Exhaustion and sentiment tools

Definitions for many of these terms are in our Report Glossary.

Futures, cash and basis

Futures set the benchmark; your cash price is futures plus or minus local basis.

The two do not always move together; basis can strengthen while futures consolidate or decline.

That is why we chart cash prices and basis directly through the Klarenbach Saskatchewan price and basis indexes, not just futures.

The full mechanics are covered in Canola Prices in Canada: The Complete Producer's Guide.

Futures also give you flexibility.

If you need cash but the trend is still up, one strategy is to sell the physical crop and replace it with futures exposure, raising cash without giving up the rally.

We worked through that decision in Canola Sales and Cash Flow Strategy.

The psychology of marketing

Anchoring bias

"I'm not selling until the price returns to $22 a bushel."

A durum grower told us that after the market had already peaked, corrected, and triggered a sell signal.

He had anchored to the high instead of following the chart and watched the price fall about $10 a bushel.

Anchoring to a past price, a cost of production, or a neighbour's sale is one of the most expensive habits in grain marketing.

We all do it.

Read the full story in Anchoring Bias.

Sell down to your sleep point

If unpriced grain is keeping you awake, that is information.

The idea of selling down to your sleep point is not to sell everything; it is to lock in enough profitable sales that you can rest easy and keep your focus on the season ahead.

Risk management and position sizing

Every one of these tools fails sometimes.

What separates a good marketing year from a bad one is how much you have at risk when they do.

Size your decisions so no single call can hurt the operation, and decide in advance where you will admit you are wrong.

Our Risk Management video covers position sizing in detail.

Putting it together

A simple process for any crop:

• Identify the stage. Accumulation, Markup, Distribution or Decline?

• Check the compass. Are the key moving averages rising or falling, and do the monthly, weekly and daily charts agree?

• Mark the map. Where are the Fibonacci support and target levels?

• Watch for warnings. Divergence, failed bounces, broken necklines.

• Check your head. Are you anchored to an old price? Are you at your sleep point?

• Size the decision. Price in increments, and know where you are wrong.

More lessons are collected on our Education page.

Frequently asked questions

What is technical analysis in grain marketing?

Technical analysis studies price itself (trend, structure, and momentum on the chart) rather than the news and supply-demand stories around it. For a producer, it turns price behaviour into a marketing plan: when to price, when to hold, and where the risk is.

What are the four stages of market structure?

Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Decline. The optimum time to buy or hold is the breakout from Accumulation into Markup; the optimum time to sell is the breakdown from Distribution into Decline. The structure shows up in every market and on every timeframe.

Which Fibonacci levels matter most?

The key retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. A pullback that holds 23.6% signals a very strong trend; 38.2% is the most common pullback; 61.8% is a deep test. A bounce there means the trend is still alive. Fibonacci extensions are used to project price targets.

What is a dead cat bounce?

A brief, reflexive rally inside a falling market that convinces people the worst is over before prices drop again. The structure is the drop, the small bounce, and the failure. Mistaking it for a bottom is one of the most expensive marketing errors.

What does "sell down to your sleep point" mean?

It means selling enough of your unpriced grain that the remaining exposure no longer keeps you up at night. It is not selling everything; it is locking in enough profitable sales to manage risk and keep your focus on the operation.

Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be considered investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own due diligence.

My buddy Neil reached out asking about Durum.

What about Durum? Neil asked.

He is done harvesting and is bored.

That is the inspiration for today’s video analysis.

So we look at Canada, Europe, and the US markets.

As well as the Durum/Hard Red Spring Wheat Ratio, where we do do victory lap.

A new day.

A new week.

A sell off in many grains and oilseeds.

Today’s video looks at Canola.

28 September 2026. Canola. Nearby futures in this note closed at the 50-day moving average, the 808 level. The note named a bounce toward 825 to 830, a weekly downside path to 700, and the Saskatchewan cash index holding above the long-term trend line at $17.00. The chart walkthrough stays below the paywall.

Here's a quick recap of this week's work for paid subscribers.

If you're on the free list or just subscribed, here's what you missed — and how to get the full analysis next time.

This week's posts

Durum Market Trends: Saskatchewan, Europe & US Charts

The durum call is playing out. Charts in Canada, the US and Europe all point the same direction, and the rally probability still outweighs the downside risk. Growers who need cash were pointed toward other liquidity options rather than pricing durum at current levels.

Content tag: Durum

Ag Interest Rates: Canadian & US Bond Yield Spikes

Canadian and US bond yields are climbing across the curve, with several maturities pushing toward multi-decade monthly closing highs. The Canadian 5-year — the one that drives five-year loan rates — is tracking toward its highest monthly close since April 2024. Borrowing costs are under upward pressure; savers are finally getting paid.

Content tag: Interest Rates

Iowa Farmland Values: Technical Analysis Signals Market Peak

The explainer video for the 2025 Iowa Farmland Value Study is live — technical analysis applied to land values, flagging a potential market top. The 2025 Saskatchewan and Alberta studies are coming in the weeks ahead.

Content tag: Farmland

Durum, rates, land. Three markets, one week.

If you want the actual levels and strategy behind each of these calls, upgrade to paid.

Time to publish the explainer video for our 2025 Iowa Farmland Value Study.

The 2025 Saskatchewan and Alberta studies will be published in the coming weeks.

You can find them at this link:

Life’s Good

I enjoy discussing the markets.

Reach out to me with any questions:

Trent Klarenbach

306-463-8607

trent.klarenbach@klarenbach.ca

We provide you with institutional-grade analysis and trade strategies.

The same strategies are used by grain companies and traders in Chicago, London, New York and Geneva.

The effectiveness of these strategies allows you to compete with the grain companies, top traders and hedge funds.

Klarenbach Special Crops Report

The Trent Klarenbach Podcast on YouTube, YouTube Music, Spotify, Apple

Set your email preferences. Get the analysis you want.

Check out our YouTube Channel:

Nothing written, expressed, or implied here should be considered investment advice or an admonition to buy, sell, or trade any security or financial instrument. As always, do your own due diligence.

Trump is bringing in Chinese EVs.

I received an imprompto history on the Canadian Senate, its effectiveness, how it relates to the British and Australian systems.

My Pilates class was missed.

I started microdosing again which allowed me to get the Wordle in two.

It is a busy morning,

Today’s video is on the Canadian and US Bond yields and and the impact on interest rates.

24 September 2026.

Interest rates.

Canadian five-year government bond yields were tracking toward their highest monthly close since April 2024, and the 10-year was climbing back toward the 4.8% to 5.0% range.

U.S. five-year Treasury yields were pushing toward monthly closing highs not seen since June 2007.

The note's takeaway: yields were rising across the curve, which means continued upward pressure on borrowing costs.

These are the levels written in this note. They are not a new call. The chart walkthrough stays below the paywall.

22 September 2026.

Durum.

The Saskatchewan price index in this note was $8.06 a bushel.

The US cash durum index was $5.81.

Europe needed a break above €300 a tonne to confirm the turn.

The chart walkthrough stays below the paywall.

Levels in this note, 22 September 2026

These are the levels written in this note. They are not a new call.

It’s Tuesday.

The week is young.

The markets are sort of boring for me at this time.

Which means they won’t be for long.

Our Durum prognostication.

Prophecy?

Forecast?

Guess?

Whatever you call it, it is playing out nicely.

More durum analysis: all durum reports · July 2026 durum price analysis · how prairie basis works

Here's a quick recap of this week's technical calls for paid subscribers.

If you're on the free list or just subscribed, here's what you missed — and how to get the levels next time.

This week's posts

• Durum Discount 2026: Futures Liquidity vs Cash Wheat — Durum, KC HRW Wheat and CPSR, CBOT SRW Wheat, MGEX HRS Wheat and CWRS

• Canola Chart Analysis: Key Futures Levels & Basis Signals — Canola

• Corn Futures & Feed Barley: Western Canada Market Trends — Barley

• Spring Wheat Strategy: Target Levels for Cash & Futures — MGEX HRS Wheat and CWRS

• HRW & CPSR Wheat Market Trends: KC Futures & SK Cash Analysis — KC HRW Wheat and CPSR

• Flax Prices: Saskatchewan Technicals Signal Support — Flax

• Soybean Price Forecast: Key Support Target & Spread Trends — Soybeans

Seven crops, seven charts, one week.

If you want the actual price targets and spread levels behind each of these calls, upgrade to paid.