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Admin note: No newsletter next week. Off to the “tanker” for spring break.

The kill chain just got cheaper. A lot cheaper.

You know this; we've all seen the footage. But I think we're just at the start of a transformation. A $15,000 drone is killing things that used to require a cruise missile, a strategic bomber, or some other form of “high-end” military capability. This isn't just a forward deployment problem. It lands on the doorstep of every military base, sensitive site, and critical node of infrastructure, including ones on US soil.

Drones aren’t new.

Nations have been using them for decades. However, the departure from large ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) and strike platforms into low-cost kamikaze and First Person View (FPV) drones has dramatically lowered the technical barrier to entry. We've watched the war in Ukraine showcase how FPV drones have taken out key nodes, personnel, and aircraft. Low-cost hardware is killing million-dollar equipment….at scale. That ratio matters.

The capability gap between a superpower and a determined non-state actor (or a beaten-down state actor) has just compressed. When a FPV drone can destroy a strategic bomber on a runway 2,600 miles away (4,300 kilometers for the rest of the world) from the operator, the old assumptions about strategic depth need a hard look. Bases that once were out of reach are now threatened by a mini-van loaded out with kamikaze drones.

That's what we're living through right now. In Russia. In the Middle East. In Louisiana.

The numbers.

• 117 FPV drones, June 1, 2025 — five Russian air bases hit across five time zones

• 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers rendered inoperable in a single night

• B-52s at Barksdale were actively launching strike packages against Iran when the incursions happened

Operation Spider Web.

Eighteen months of planning. Drones smuggled inside wooden cabins, bolted to the backs of cargo trucks. Civilian drivers hired for what they thought was a routine haul. On June 1, 2025, those trucks pulled up near five Russian air bases — one of them in Siberia, 4,300 kilometers from Ukraine — and launched.

The drones were FPV. Short range. Commercially derived. Guided by free access autopilot software called ArduPilot, the same software drone hobbyists use. AI-assisted targeting trained on museum models of the aircraft they were going after. Each operator, sitting in Ukraine, flew their drone into the fuel tanks in the wings of bombers that were armed and ready to launch.

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What Iran is doing with the same playbook.

Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia has been hit repeatedly. The Department of War hasn't confirmed whether ballistic missiles, drones, or a combination were responsible for each strike. My bet is both.

High Value Air Assets (HVAA) are always a crucial component of any aerial engagement. Their loss is unacceptable for any fighter pilot. Tankers and the E-3 both fit that category. Losing multiple airframes sitting on the ground is a hard pill to swallow. How it happened will be dissected over the coming weeks, months, and years.

The Air Force has a doctrine called Agile Combat Employment (ACE), and plenty of people have already weighed in, calling it a complete failure. My take, looking at the same news you are, is that executing ACE doesn't happen in a vacuum. Geopolitics. Infrastructure. Funding. Personnel. Logistics. All of it shapes what's actually possible versus what looks clean on a slide.

In a perfect world, assets are spread out, combat airpower is distributed, and no single strike can take out multiple critical platforms at once. That's the idea. That's not always the reality.

Maybe the hit on Prince Sultan was the perfect storm. The “golden BB” finding its way through. Was ACE employed? I don't know. My guess is yes, though perhaps not at the optimal level given the constraints above. But here's the question worth asking before you pile on: if ACE hadn't been employed at all, what would that ramp have looked like? Think about what a pre-ACE flight line in 2010 looked like. The losses could have been far worse.

Then there's Barksdale.

Barksdale Air Force Base, Bossier City, Louisiana. Home of the B-52. Headquarters of Air Force Global Strike Command. Part of the nuclear triad.

During the week of March 9th, while B-52s were actively launching strike packages against Iran, 12 to 15 drones per wave flew over the flight line for seven straight days. Non-commercial signal characteristics. Long-range control links. Jam-resistant. The flight line had to be shut down. Launches delayed.

My read: this isn't a hobbyist who drifted into restricted airspace. You don't coordinate 12 to 15 jam-resistant drones with non-commercial signal characteristics for fun. You don't do it for seven days. You don't deliberately probe security response patterns unless you need that data for something specific.

Barksdale is one of two B-52 bases. The B-52s on that flight line sit largely in the open. There are 76 of them in the entire fleet. Ten years ago, would anyone have worried about the vulnerabilities of our bombers sitting in Louisiana or North Dakota?

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My take.

I've been calling this the democratization of strategic strike — and I think that framing is worth a discussion.

For most of military history, hitting a strategic target, a bomber base, a command node, or a radar array required nation-state resources. Stealth aircraft. Ballistic missiles. Cruise missile programs that took decades and billions to develop. The barrier to strategic effect was deliberately high.

That barrier is coming down.

Not all the way. A $1,000 FPV drone isn't replacing a B-2. But it doesn't have to. It just has to make the B-2's parking spot less safe. Force the flight line to close. Make base commanders wonder what the next wave is actually carrying.

Agile Combat Employment: distributed ops, reduced signatures, dispersed forces that are harder to target and harder to destroy in a single strike, is exactly the doctrine the Air Force developed for this threat environment.

Whether it was fully executed here, partially executed, or simply constrained by the geopolitical reality of operating out of sovereign partner nations with fixed infrastructure and diplomatic limitations is an open question. You can't always pick your parking spot. Sometimes the alliance relationship dictates where the jets sit.

To steal a line from Sal from What’s Going on with Shipping…”we are good at swatting the birds, but swatting gnats? not so much.”

I joined Ward and Sal for a fourth live stream the other day, check it out below.

In History

On December 7, 1941, the US lost 188 aircraft at Pearl Harbor — most destroyed on the ground, wingtip to wingtip, because commanders were more worried about sabotage than air attack. The threat came from a direction nobody was adequately defending. Some lessons have to be relearned.

Edited by Sidney McAlear

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The scoreboard looks good. But how does the supply room look?

Everyone is watching the strike footage. Mushroom clouds over Parchin. Iranian air defenses largely gone. Missile launch rates down 90 percent. By any traditional measure, this is the definition of dominance. But what is the cost? To be fair, I don’t think we will know that answer…the true answer…for years.

5,197 munitions in 96 hours

The Foreign Policy Research Institute published an analysis this week that should be required reading for anyone following this war. In the first four days of Operation Epic Fury, the US-led coalition expended 5,197 munitions across 35 weapons types. FPRI calls it “the most munitions-intensive opening air campaign in modern history, dwarfing Libya 2011”, which used approximately 735 munitions in its first three days. We burned through seven times that in the same window.

The munitions-only replacement bill runs $10 to $16 billion. Add destroyed sensors and aircraft attrition and you're sitting at roughly $20 billion. CSIS puts the first 100 hours alone at $3.7 billion, running at approximately $891 million per day. Penn Wharton's Budget Model projects $40 to $95 billion for a two-month conflict, depending on whether boots hit the ground and how fast munitions can be replenished.

The problem…or one of the “Challenges”

Of the 35 munition types tracked, 21 remain in healthy supply with deep inventories. The coalition can keep bombing Iran. That part is fine. Replacing what's been fired takes 53 months. That’s four and a half years.

The GBU-57 (the 30,000-pound, massive ordnance penetrator dropped by the B-2 in Operation Midnight Hammer) is new and was not built in large volume; nearly a third of them used, and Boeing is not scheduled to deliver more until 2028. The GBU-57 is not an “everyday” use, but you can envisage where we are going with this.

The problem is concentrated in the other 14 high-end systems that make modern air defense credible and long-range strike meaningful. The interceptors keep bases alive. The long-range weapons allow for long-range precision strike.

Tomahawk cruise missiles — 375 fired. Production rate: 85 per year.

Patriot interceptors — 943 rounds fired across US and Gulf forces. 18 months of production consumed in four days. Gulf partners fired roughly twice as many as U.S. forces.

Israel's Arrow interceptors — Over half the inventory gone in four days. Eight days remaining at that burn rate. 32 months to replace.

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Command of the Reload.

For three decades, American grand strategy rested on what scholar Barry Posen called "Command of the Commons," an unrivaled ability to project power anywhere on earth. Behind the Front introduces: Command of the Reload. The decisive factor in modern high-end conflict is no longer just the ability to strike, it is the industrial capacity to keep striking and keep defending after the opening magazines run dry.

The Iran war is the first real stress test of that capacity. And the results are uncomfortable.

Congress can appropriate $16 billion overnight. It cannot appropriate gallium, neodymium, or ammonium perchlorate into existence. Replacing the 5,197 munitions fired in the opening days requires approximately 92 tons of copper, 137 kilograms of neodymium, 18 kilograms of gallium, 37 kilograms of tantalum, 7 kilograms of dysprosium, and 600 tons of ammonium perchlorate.

China controls 98 percent of global gallium production, 90 percent of neodymium processing, and 99 percent of dysprosium, all critical for seeker heads, guidance systems, and radar modules. China banned gallium exports to the US in December 2024. We are fighting a high-tech war with a supply chain that runs through Beijing.

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Hot take…not even that hot

The problem set is clearly larger than a stroke of the pen when it comes to writing a check to replenish the stockpile. Raw materials account for roughly 3 percent of the unit cost of a finished munition. A $4.5 million Patriot interceptor contains $5,000 to $15,000 in minerals. The money isn't the problem. Availability is.

Former Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro testified that replacing $1 billion in Red Sea munitions required over $2 billion to procure. Apply that ratio to a $16 billion bill and you're looking at $32 billion to reload, if the materials are even available to buy.

Now we know the Pentagon's own number. The Washington Post first reported, and Secretary Hegseth confirmed at a March 19th press briefing, that the Pentagon has sent a $200 billion supplemental funding request to the White House. The stated purpose: pay for what's been spent, refill the magazines, and build stockpiles above and beyond pre-war levels. Hegseth's exact words: "not just refilled, but above and beyond."

That number is more than the entire annual defense budget of every country on Earth except the United States.

The industrial base, from the availability of raw materials to production capacity, plays a pivotal role. A strong industrial base is pivotal to maintaining military superiority and power projection

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Edited by Sidney McAlear

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The Lowdown is your intel brief on aviation, defense, and geopolitics. No noise. No spin. Just the stuff that matters. Subscribe and stick around…or don't…the choice is yours. Check us out on Youtube: Afterburn Defense & Afterburn Podast

Let's talk about the bases.

The United States operates roughly 19 military sites across the Middle East, eight of which are considered permanent. Tens of thousands of personnel. Billions in infrastructure. The “crown jewel” is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar which hosts CENTCOM's forward headquarters, the Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC), 10,000+ troops, two runways over 12,000 feet, and an $8 billion investment by Qatar since 2003 specifically to attract and keep US forces there.

These bases were the foundation of our regional strategy. Deterrence through presence. The idea being: if you can see us, you know not to mess with us.

Iran disagreed.

AL-Udied Air Base - I don’t disagree with the 1-star review

What got hit.

Since the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, Iranian strikes have touched nearly every major US facility in the region:

Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia — Five KC-135 tankers were damaged on the flight line in a single missile strike reported on March 16. One US soldier, Sgt. Benjamin Pennington, 26, was killed in a previous strike on March 1st. The tanker fleet is the campaign's oxygen supply…and rather limited considering the demand.
Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE — Iranian drones targeted the base. This happened hours after Iran's president publicly apologized to Gulf states for IRGC attacks. The apology and the strike were delivered on the same day.
Naval Support Activity Bahrain, 5th Fleet HQ — Missile and drone strikes reported. A Shahed drone hit a tower block near the headquarters. Fires visible. Damage confirmed.
Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar — Two Iranian missiles intercepted over Qatari territory. The AN/FPS-132 early warning radar at the base was destroyed. That radar took years to build and will take years to replace.

Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait. Muwaffaq Al Salti, Jordan. Ain Al Asad, Iraq. Duqm Port, Oman.

Every major hub. Hit or targeted.

The bases didn't deter Iran. In several cases, they made our partners bigger targets.

AN/FPS-132 Radar - $1.1 Billion per unit

We've been here before.

In 1991, after the Gulf War, the US established a major presence at Prince Sultan Air Base to enforce the no-fly zone over Iraq. At its peak: 5,000 personnel, 200+ coalition aircraft.

By 1996, Khobar Towers had been bombed. Nineteen Americans killed. The US presence near Mecca and Medina became Osama bin Laden's central recruiting argument — and fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals.

On April 29, 2003, with Saddam fallen, Donald Rumsfeld and Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan announced a “mutual agreement” to withdraw. The framing was strategic. The reality was that Saudi authorities had been quietly uncomfortable for years. They tried to suppress news that Americans were running the Iraq air war from Saudi soil. The political cost had become unsustainable.

The US left. Quietly. By August 2003, the last USAF unit had deactivated. 

Sidebar: During my last deployment in 2014/15, we had two jets divert into a Saudi Airfield, which instantly activated high-level State Department involvement. Two jets diverted around 11pm local time. About 13 hours later the jets returned. In that short time span, a C-130 had been called into our base, loaded with parts and maintenance personnel, flown to the divert base, and repaired two aircraft…rather impressive.

But in 2019, we came back. Prince Sultan was reactivated around 2019 as Iran tensions rose again. The logic was the same as before: deterrence through presence….or “peace through strength,” as that seems to be the current message.

Iran just hit it with ballistic missiles and damaged five tankers on the flight line.

History isn't repeating itself exactly. But it's ringing loud enough to hear from here.

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My take: The broken guarantee.

The deal was simple. Gulf states host US forces, accept the political risk that comes with it, and in exchange, they get a security umbrella. Deterrence. Protection.

That deal is under serious strain right now.

The Soufan Center put it plainly: "Gulf officials will reassess the utility of American military bases on their territory, which have neither acted as a deterrent nor protected these states."

Iran's foreign ministry told CNBC that US military assets in neighboring countries are "legitimate targets under international law." The message to Gulf rulers isn't subtle: hosting Americans makes you a target.

And then they proved it. Repeatedly.

Monarchies, not democracies.

There is no election coming. No vote of no confidence. Public opinion doesn't force a Gulf king's hand the way it might a European prime minister.

Pressure in monarchies runs through different channels. And those channels are moving.

Economic pressure — Dubai International Airport lost an estimated $600 million per day in tourism revenue during the height of the strikes. Amazon data centers in the UAE were targeted by Iranian drones. Insurance premiums for regional operations jumped 300 to 1,000 percent. Forty thousand flights canceled. You cannot be the world's connectivity hub and an active war zone at the same time. That's not a military problem for Gulf rulers — it's an existential economic one.

Elite backlash — These aren't anonymous protesters. Prince Turki al-Faisal publicly called this "Netanyahu's war." Khalaf Al Habtoor, one of Dubai's most prominent businessmen, questioned the US publicly. The Gulf Research Center chairman described the economic toll as "enormous." In a monarchy, when the establishment voices start talking like that, rulers listen.

The Bahrain variable — The US 5th Fleet is headquartered there. Bahrain also has a Shia majority that has been repressed for years. Carnegie is reporting protests breaking out. If that instability grows, the most sensitive US naval facility in the region sits directly in the middle of it.

Strategic hedging — Gulf officials are already quietly reviewing force majeure clauses in existing agreements. Security alliances are being diversified. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and others reportedly warned the Trump administration in January about the risks of military action.

The question nobody wants to answer.

The kingdoms won't kick the US out tomorrow. The relationships are too deep, the economics too intertwined, the security dependencies too real — on both sides.

But the longer this war runs, the harder the math gets. The bases didn't deter Iran. They didn't protect Gulf infrastructure. They made Gulf capitals targets. And the Gulf states are footing a significant part of the bill — in Patriot interceptors alone, they fired roughly twice what US forces did in the opening days.

The 2003 withdrawal happened because the threat was removed and both sides had a convenient offramp. Saddam was gone. The awkward roommate situation could end gracefully.

This time, the threat isn't going anywhere. And the offramp isn't obvious.

How this ultimately resolves — whether US basing in the Gulf looks the same in five years as it does today — is one of the most important strategic questions of this conflict. It's just not the one getting covered.

In History

On June 25, 1996, a truck bomb detonated outside Khobar Towers at Dhahran Air Base, Saudi Arabia. Nineteen US airmen were killed. 498 wounded. The investigation pointed toward Iranian-backed Hezbollah. The US stayed. Seven years later, quietly and without fanfare, they left. The presence that was supposed to project strength had become the liability it was trying to prevent. Some lessons take a while to land.

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Edited by Sidney McAlear

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New here? I’m John “Rain” Waters — The Lowdown is your intel brief on aviation, defense, and geopolitics. No noise. No spin. Just the stuff that matters. Subscribe and stick around…or don’t…the choice is yours.

Before anything else:

On Friday, U.S. Central Command confirmed what many of us feared. All six crew members aboard the KC-135 that went down during Operation Epic Fury have perished. A safety investigation is underway, followed by an accident investigation that will eventually be made public — though we won't see those findings for quite some time.

Tanker crews don't often make the highlight reel. They do their mission quietly. Without them, combat airpower grinds to a halt. We often take it for granted and consider them out of harm's way — but what they do, day in and day out, is fraught with risk.

No One Kicks Ass Without Tanker Gas. #NKAWTG

To their families and friends receiving the worst news of their lives right now — our thoughts and prayers are with you.

Also on our minds: the families and friends of the other seven service members lost since the opening hours of Epic Fury.

Top of tail of the other KC-135 involved in the Thursday incident

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My take: The Strait is the real problem

Everyone is watching the strike count.

Here's the challenge: nobody has a clean answer. The U.S. and Gulf partners have to provide 100% assurance that ships can transit the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz safely.

To use my baseball analogy: That means “batting a thousand”. Every single time. No misses.

Iran doesn't need to bat a thousand. They don't even need a hit. A foul ball wins. A single wins. A double definitely wins. And we've seen exactly that this week — multiple tankers struck and oil refinery facilities hit, not just in the Strait but in and around the broader Gulf. Crews floating in life rafts. Footage that rattles insurance underwriters and shipping executives in boardrooms from London to Singapore.

The U.S. and coalition forces have been remarkably effective at suppressing Iran's conventional military. Air defenses are largely gone. The navy is largely gone. The missile launch rate is down over 90%. By any traditional measure, this is a one-sided fight.

But the Strait doesn't care about traditional measures.

Iran doesn't need a functional military to keep the Strait effectively closed. They need a drone here, a mine there, an unmanned surface vessel loaded with explosives on a one-way trip. The calculus is brutally asymmetric, and they know it.

How we get to a point where there is assured safety for ships to transit is the question. I don't have a clean answer. I'm not sure anyone does right now.

The Army quietly made history. Not Many Noticed.

While everyone has been watching the air campaign, the Army has been sinking ships. ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System, has been used to destroy multiple Iranian naval vessels and at least one Iranian submarine. Let that sink in. Ground-launched ballistic missiles hitting naval targets. For the first time in history. The weapon fires from HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), carries nearly 4,000 lbs of ordnance (1,670 kg), reaches out to 190 nautical miles (300 km), and tops out at 160,000 feet.

The GBU-57 may have come out again

The 30,000 lb Massive Ordnance Penetrator (GBU-57/B), first used in Operation Midnight Hammer, appears to have been dropped again, this time on the Parchin military complex about 20-30 miles southeast of Tehran.

The IAEA has had this site on its radar for years, suspected of producing specialized explosives for nuclear weapon development. Iran reinforced and buried it deeper after previous Israeli strikes in 2024 and the 12 Day War. Didn't matter. The B-2 carries two of these. CENTCOM hasn't confirmed, but the blast footage and impact craters tell the story.

An Emirati F-16 shot down an Iranian drone three miles from Dubai International

The UAE's Block 60 Desert Falcon — one of the most capable F-16 variants on the planet — intercepted a Shahed-style drone over Al Mansour Beach, low altitude, with civilians filming from the sand. The F-16 took the drone down with a missile shot as they flew toward the city.

AI is running the kill chain

It has been reported that Anthropic's Claude AI, embedded inside Palantir's Maven Smart System, helped generate over 1,000 strike options, routes, and target priorities in the first 24 hours of Epic Fury. Human commanders review and authorize. But what used to require toggling between 8-9 different systems at different classification levels is now one screen. When you're running 1,000+ strikes a day, that's not a convenience. That's a force multiplier.

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Edited by Sidney McAlear

On February 27th’s Newsletter, we asked: Are we going to war with Iran?

The answer: Turns out, yes.
If you missed it: 2/27 Newsletter: “Will the U.S. Attack Iran”

How Did We Get Here?

Last week, the United States and Israel launched one of the most significant military operations in modern history against Iran. For many people, this seemed to come out of nowhere. It didn't. To understand why we're here, you need to go back — not just to last last week, last month, or last year, but to 1941.

The Road to Today

1941 — During WWII, Britain and the Soviet Union jointly occupied Iran to secure its oil supply lines and prevent Nazi Germany from gaining access. The reigning Shah, Reza Shah Pahlavi, is seen as too sympathetic to Germany and is forced into exile by the Allies. His 22-year-old son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, is placed on the throne. Iran exits WWII under Western influence and firmly in the pro-Western camp.

1951 — Iran's democratically (as close to democracy as Iran has been at least) elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, nationalizes Iran's oil industry, which had been controlled for decades by Britain through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Britain is furious. The U.S., eyeing Soviet influence and Cold War positioning, sees a risk.

1953 — The CIA and British intelligence (MI6) orchestrate a coup — Operation TPAJAX — overthrowing Mosaddegh. The Shah is reinstalled as an absolute monarch with U.S. backing, U.S. firms receive roughly 40% of Iranian oil rights, and Iran's CIA-trained secret police (SAVAK) enforce order.

1953–1979 — The Shah rules as a pro-Western autocrat. U.S. military and economic aid flows into Iran. Iran serves as a key Cold War counterweight to the Soviet Union. By the 1970s, Iran is one of the wealthiest nations in the region.

1979 — The Islamic Revolution. Mass protests paralyze the country. The Shah flees Iran in January. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shia cleric who had been exiled for over a decade, returns to a crowd of millions and establishes the Islamic Republic. The religious clergy seize control. Within months, Iranian students storm the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and hold 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.

1980–1988 — Iran-Iraq War. Saddam Hussein invades Iran. The U.S. backs Iraq. Over one million people die. Iran emerges battered but ideologically hardened.

1988 — Operation Praying Mantis. The U.S. Navy conducts offensive operations against Iran in the Persian Gulf after Iran mines international waters and nearly sinks the USS Samuel B. Roberts. The U.S. sinks two Iranian frigates and destroys multiple naval platforms in a single day.

1979–2025 — Iran's grand strategy takes shape: no conventional military can match the U.S., so Iran builds an asymmetric network instead. Proxy forces in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Syria, Yemen (Houthis), and Gaza become Iran's long arm. Ballistic missiles become the deterrent. A shadow nuclear program becomes the ultimate card.

June 2025 — Operation Midnight Hammer. Seven B-2 Spirit bombers fly 18 hours from Whiteman AFB, Missouri. For the first time in history, the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is used in combat. Fourteen of them drop on Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.

February 28, 2026 — Operation Epic Fury begins. The U.S. and Israel launch joint strikes. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening hours. Dozens of senior regime and IRGC commanders die with him. Iran retaliates within hours.

Who's In This Fight?

Offensive operations against Iran: United States | Israel | Qatar | UAE (unconfirmed)

Active defensive participants (intercepting Iranian strikes, hosting U.S. forces): Saudi Arabia | Qatar | UAE | Kuwait | Bahrain | Oman | Jordan | United Kingdom

Newly entering the picture: France — Rafale jets have been deployed to protect French bases in Abu Dhabi after Iran struck Camp de la Paix. A French carrier group is moving toward the Mediterranean.

Third U.S. carrier inbound: USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is preparing to deploy from Norfolk — that would put three U.S. carrier groups in the region simultaneously. Originally thought to maybe replace the USS Gerald R. Ford, it now appears it will be an addition as the Ford has moved further into the Middle East

The Scoreboard | What's Happened on the Battlefield:

U.S./Israel offensive:

• 3,000+ targets struck inside Iran by U.S. forces in the first week alone (CENTCOM, March 9)

• 900 U.S. strikes in the first 12 hours — nearly double the opening day of "Shock and Awe" in Iraq in 2003

• ~75% of Iran's mobile missile launchers destroyed or neutralized

• 43+ Iranian naval vessels destroyed or damaged

• Khamenei, the Minister of Defense, the IRGC commander, and dozens of senior officials were killed

Iran's retaliation (as of March 7):

• 2,000+ drones launched across the region

• 500+ ballistic missiles fired

• Iranian missile launches down 90% from opening phase

• Iranian drone launches down 83% 

• All six GCC states simultaneously struck — first time in history a single actor has done this

• UAE alone: 174 ballistic missiles tracked (161 intercepted), 689 drones detected (645 intercepted) — the UAE has been the most transparent in releasing numbers

• Strait of Hormuz: Effectively closed. Tanker traffic dropped to near zero by March 2. 150+ ships anchored outside the strait. All major shipping lines — Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM — have suspended transits.

• Oil hit $114/barrel. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG contracts.

• 8 U.S. service members killed in action

📺 Catch Up | Video Series

What We're Tracking This Week

🔺 Succession: Khamenei's son Mojtaba is reportedly being positioned as successor. Whether a hardliner consolidates power or a more pragmatic figure emerges will shape the next phase entirely.

🔺 The USS George H.W. Bush: A third U.S. carrier group entering the region is a significant escalation signal. Watch whether it changes Iran's calculus or hardens it.

🔺 France's Naval Coalition: France is forming an international escort coalition for transit through the Straight of Hormuz. If that gains traction, it starts to reopen global shipping — and takes a major pressure point off Iran's hands. Watch who joins.

🔺 Gulf State Fracture Lines: Quiet conversations are happening among GCC governments about the cost-benefit of U.S. basing. The Soufan Center is reporting that Gulf officials have begun reviewing force majeure clauses in current contracts. If a Gulf State publicly distances itself from the coalition, that's a strategic win for Iran without firing another missile.

🔺 Proxy Activation: Hezbollah has resumed strikes on Israel. Iraqi Shia militias have launched drone attacks on U.S. forces. The large-scale proxy activation hasn't happened yet. Watch northern Iraq and Syria.

Are we going to war with Iran?

This is the million-dollar question on everyone's mind. Obviously, only the President and his inner circle of decision-makers know the real answer. However, the massive military buildup we've observed across the Middle East over the last few weeks suggests the potential for conflict is very real. Until recently, the force composition was missing a few key aircraft (in my assessment) for any credible operation against Iran. We'll get to that below.

The “Red Lines”

But first. President Trump has outlined four key requirements for Iran.

1. No nuclear weapons

2. Significant reduction in ballistic missile force

3. Stop using proxy forces in the region

4. Stop the oppression of the Iranian population

There's plenty of debate around these "red lines" and how realistic they are. The nuclear question in particular has analysts scratching their heads. The U.S. claimed to have set back the Iranian nuclear program as recently as last June, yet Iran is now reportedly "within a week of having a nuclear weapon." The contradictions are hard to square. Regardless, the one point of clear consensus from Washington is this: Iran will not be permitted to possess nuclear weapons. The details, of course, are far more complicated.

The Missing Players

Until this past week, two critical aircraft types were conspicuously absent from the regional buildup — the F-22 and the Block 50/52 F-16. F-16 Block 40s were present in theater, but not the Block 50/52 variant, which performs the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) mission — a.k.a Wild Weasels. That changed recently. Twelve F-22s (and twelve more on the way) have now arrived in Israel, and 30 F-16 Wild Weasels are operating in the area. To put that in perspective, that's a five-times increase in Wild Weasel presence compared to Operation Midnight Hammer.

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With the F-22s and Wild Weasels now in place, the U.S. appears to have all the required air assets for an operation. Whether those assets support a surgical strike versus sustained operations is a separate conversation entirely. But without the F-22 within striking range to establish air dominance, any serious operation was a non-starter. Similarly, the F-16 Wild Weasel remains indispensable for kinetic SEAD — the ability to physically escort strike packages into high-threat environments and destroy enemy air defense systems.

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)

Modern SEAD is a team effort. Cyber, space, the F-35, the EA-18G Growler, and several other platforms all work in concert to disrupt, degrade, and suppress enemy air defenses. But when it comes to putting iron on target in a contested environment, the F-16 Wild Weasel remains the workhorse. Its arrival in force is the clearest signal yet that this buildup is more than posturing.

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FLIGHT LINE

🎯 China Conducts Initial Beach Trials of Second Batch of Shuiqiao-Class Amphibious Barges

Shuiqiao-class amphibious landing barges (via Euraisa Naval Insight)

A second batch of China’s Shuiqiao-class amphibious landing barges is undergoing initial beach trial testing at Nansan Island in the South China Sea, with imagery dated January 16 showing the barges lowering their extendable bridges and linking sections together. The three-vessel batch arrived at Nansan Island on January 12 after being observed transiting south from the Shenzhen area earlier in the month. (more)

• The second batch includes three variants with jack-up legs: an eight-leg, 185-meter road-bridge version, a six-leg, 128-meter variant, and a four-leg, 108-meter variant.

• All Shuiqiao-class barges are equipped with extendable roadway bridges and jack-up mechanisms that allow them to form temporary docks or improvised logistics piers once raised above the waterline.

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🎯 $839B Defense Spending Deal Backs Next-Gen Air Dominance and Naval Aviation Programs

Congressional leaders released a compromised $839 billion defense spending bill that includes continued funding for next-generation aviation programs, notably the Air Force’s F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance fighter and the Navy’s Next Generation Air Dominance, or F/A-XX. This release comes as lawmakers push to sustain future air superiority amid rising global threats. The bill provides funding above the Pentagon’s request and preserves investment in advanced aircraft development despite broader budget constraints. (more)

• The legislation supports continued development of the Air Force’s F-47 program, intended to replace the F-22 as the service’s premier air-dominance platform.

• Funding is also maintained for the Navy’s F/A-XX program, which is planned to succeed the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet in the carrier air wing.

🎯 China Using Large Fishing Fleets to Practice “Floating Barrier” Tactics

According to a report by The New York Times, China has organized large formations of civilian fishing vessels into dense, coordinated lines stretching hundreds of miles, temporarily halting normal fishing activity. In one instance, roughly 1,400 vessels assembled into a formation extending more than 200 miles, while another episode around Christmas involved about 2,000 vessels forming two parallel lines nearly 290 miles long, raising concerns about potential military utility. (more)

• Analysts assess these formations as training for China’s maritime “people’s militia,” a force of civilian vessels organized for state-directed operations.

• In a regional crisis, such formations could be used to congest sea lanes, create false radar targets, and blur the line between civilian and military activity in contested waters.

Ship formation 25 Dec 25. (via warshorts)

Jeff Wise MH370

Dr. Anthony Vinci

🎯 New Interim Air Force One Aircraft From Qatar Set to Fly This Summer

The Air Force plans to begin flying a temporary Air Force One aircraft provided by Qatar as early as this summer, creating a stopgap solution while the long-delayed VC-25B replacement program remains years behind schedule. The modified Boeing 747 will be used to maintain presidential airlift availability as the current VC-25As continue to age and face increasing sustainment challenges. (more)

• The aircraft is intended as an interim capability and will not replace the VC-25B program, which continues to face schedule delays.

• The Air Force is adapting the jet to meet required security and communications standards before it enters service.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Air Force One (the 747…because any Air Force aircraft flying the President is “Air Force One”) aircraft carrying President Donald Trump diverted over the Atlantic after experiencing an electrical issue, according to the Air Force. (more)

🚩 NORAD announced that military aircraft will soon deploy to Pituffik Space Base in Greenland to support planned Arctic operations coordinated with Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark. (more)

🚩 Pentagon leaders named new deputies and program managers to oversee the Air Force’s Golden Dome missile defense effort, formalizing leadership for the emerging initiative. (more)

🚩 The Justice Department has seized two mobile Mission Crew Trainers allegedly built by the Test Flying Academy of South Africa using U.S.-origin software and NATO-derived ASW data and unlawfully prepared for export to China to support PLA airborne warning, control, and anti-submarine warfare training. (more)

🚩 Anduril Announces Major Expansion With New Long Beach Campus
Anduril Industries has unveiled plans for a major expansion in Southern California, announcing a new campus in Long Beach aimed at scaling production, engineering, and testing of its autonomous defense systems. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Su-35 (Flanker-E)

Threat Name: Su-35
Country of Origin: Russia
Initial Operational Capability: 2014

Primary Role: Multirole air superiority fighter
Variants: Su-35S (Russian service variant)
Proliferation: Russia, Algeria, China, Iran (2028…in theory)

Range: Public sources cite a ferry range exceeding 1,900 nautical miles; combat radius varies by profile and is significantly shorter
Speed: Reported maximum speed around Mach 2.25 at altitude
Payload: Up to approximately 17,600 pounds of air-to-air and air-to-surface munitions across multiple hardpoints
Propulsion: Two Saturn AL-41F1S afterburning turbofan engines with thrust vectoring
Defensive Capability: Advanced electronic warfare suite, radar warning receivers, infrared search and track, and high maneuverability enabled by thrust vectoring
Recent Combat Activity: Operated by Russian forces during the war in Ukraine, including air defense patrols and missile launches from standoff ranges

Fun Fact: The Su-35 is not a fifth-generation aircraft, but its thrust-vectoring agility and sensor suite were designed to counter stealth fighters in close-in engagements

Quiz: B, Thrust vectoring and advanced avionics. On a personal note, I did get to watch the Su-35 demo at the Dubai Airshow in 2017…the maneuverability was definitely impressive.

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE

🎯 The Bargain Bin Traitor on the Essex

Jinchao Wei traded his Navy whites for a federal jumpsuit, snagging over 16 years for selling out the USS Essex's technical manuals to China for a measly $12,000. This machinist's mate didn't just snap selfies at Naval Base San Diego; he uploaded the literal operating instructions for our amphibious assault capabilities to Beijing via encrypted apps. (More)

• Strategic Impact: Handing over 60 technical manuals gives the People’s Liberation Army a blueprint to dismantle Wasp-class defenses, effectively neutering a cornerstone of US expeditionary power in the Pacific. The terrifying truth isn't the sophistication of Chinese spycraft, but that U.S. Navy operational security can be dismantled for the price of a used 2014 Corolla.

🎯 Nellis Gets Glitched: The 562nd Electronic Warfare Squadron

If your sensors are bricked, then it doesn’t matter how great your technology is. The U.S. Air Force is standing up the 562nd Electronic Warfare Squadron at Nellis AFB to inject high-fidelity electromagnetic nightmares directly into the Air Force Warfare Center. Operating under the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing, this new unit is designed to ensure the Air Force is ready to meet whatever electromagnetic buzzsaw adversaries can throw at the warfighter. (More)

• Strategic Impact: By embedding the 562nd EWS at the nexus of the Weapons School and Red Flag, the Air Force is trying to smash the silo between the nerds coding mission data files at Eglin and the operators flying into simulated hell at Nellis; this theoretically turns spectrum warfare from a static pre-flight briefing into a dynamic, "adapt-or-die" layer of daily training.

Jeff Wise MH370

Col Joe Peterburs

🎯 CENTCOM Hammers ISIS in "Operation Hawkeye Strike"

U.S. Central Command unleashed a massive kinetic response across Syria this weekend, utilizing a mix of F-15Es, A-10 Warthogs, and AC-130 gunships to strike 35 separate ISIS locations. The offensive, designated "Operation Hawkeye Strike," delivered over 90 precision munitions in direct retaliation for the December 13 ambush in Palmyra that killed two American soldiers and a civilian interpreter. Jordanian F-16s integrated into the formation, reinforcing a coalition resolve to dismantle terror cells attempting to reconstitute in the central Syrian desert. (More)

SNAPSHOT

🚩 The Pentagon is shattering acquisition norms by taking a $1 billion equity stake in L3Harris’s solid rocket motor business, a desperate move to unclog the production bottleneck currently choking off PAC-3 and Tomahawk missiles. (more)

🚩 China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force was spotted moving Dongfeng ICBMs dressed up in Zoomlion drag, attempting to pass off nuclear delivery systems as harmless mobile cranes. (more)

🚩 Allegiant Air officially announced a $1.5 billion deal to acquire rival budget carrier Sun Country Airlines, merging their fleets to create a "leisure" giant while facing inevitable scrutiny from U.S. antitrust regulators. (more)

🚩 Delta Air Lines finally ended its holdout as the only major U.S. carrier without Dreamliners, signing a firm order for 30 Boeing 787-10 widebodies (plus an option for 30 more) to diversify a fleet that has recently looked like an Airbus fan club. Deliveries of the GE-powered jets are scheduled to begin in 2031. (more)

🚩 China has reportedly completed the first serial production batch of J-20A stealth fighters equipped with the long-awaited WS-15 engines, finally ditching the "interim" stopgap powerplants to unlock the true supercruise performance and range the PLAAF has been promising for years. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

DF-41

Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Threat Name: Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) / NATO: CH-SS-20
Country of Origin: China
Primary Role: Road-Mobile Strategic Nuclear Deterrence (ICBM)

Range: 12,000 – 15,000 km (~6,500 – 8,100 NM)
Payload: Nuclear MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle). Estimates range from 3 large warheads (approx. 650kT each) to 10 smaller warheads (approx. 150kT each) mixed with penetration aids. Max throw weight approx. 2,500 kg.
Propulsion: Three-stage Solid Fuel

The Insider's Lowdown:

Unlike the older, liquid-fueled dinosaurs that had to sit in a silo while you poured volatile chemicals into them, the DF-41 uses a "cold launch" system. A gas generator ejects the missile from the canister before the main engine ignites. This preserves the launcher (TEL) so it can scoot away and reload—if there's anything left to reload for.

The 30-Minute Window: This is the big stick. With a top speed of Mach 25 and a range hitting 15,000 km, this system can theoretically touch any point in the continental United States in under 30 minutes. It is the crown jewel of the PLARF (PLA Rocket Force) modernization, specifically designed to bypass U.S. missile defenses with multiple warheads and decoys.

DF-41 as a “crane” 😉

Quiz: 224 cases…but let’s be honest, it is a bit tough to pin this number down but according to a CSIS survey of Chinese espionage alone lists 224 reported incidents from 2000–2023 and shows that publicly reported Chinese cases in the U.S. have typically been in the mid‑teens to mid‑20s per year in recent years.

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE 🎯 

🎯 Congress Blocks Air Force Plan to Retire A-10s and F-15Es in New NDAA

Congress has moved to halt the Air Force’s effort to retire legacy A-10s and F-15Es, inserting language in the 2025 NDAA that prevents the service from divesting aircraft it had planned to cut. The Air Force sought to retire all 162 remaining A-10s and 21 F-15E Strike Eagles, but the bill caps A-10 retirements at 59 and blocks any F-15E divestments for the year. (more)

• The NDAA requires the Air Force to maintain at least 103 A-10s through September 2026, with 93 kept combat-ready.

• The NDAA also slashed $208 million in F-35 research and development funds. This is a move that aligns with a slowdown in F-35 buys for FY26 due to TR-3 (Technology Refresh) delays, which are pushing Block 4 back. Said another way, the DoD is tired of buying F-35s knowing they are going to have to retrofit them to Block 4 capability down the road.

• The NDAA did add $250 million for F-35A spare parts, citing that parts availability has contributed to readiness issues.

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🎯 First T-7A Red Hawk Arrives at AETC for Testing and Training

A T-7A Red Hawk sits inside a hangar at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph, Texas, Dec. 5, 2025. (Photo: U.S. Air Force photo by Jonathan R. Mallard)

Air Education and Training Command has received its first T-7A Red Hawk, which landed at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph on December 5, marking the start of integrating the next-generation trainer into the pilot training enterprise. The jet is assigned to the 99th Flying Training Squadron, where it will be used for instructor familiarization and initial operational test and evaluation. (more)

• A second T-7A is expected to arrive in spring 2026 as part of the initial rollout.

• The official program plans call for a total of 351 T-7A jets to be fielded across five AETC bases. The first students are expected to start training in 2027. 

• Instructor pilot training and curriculum development will begin at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph as the aircraft enters early test phases.

🎯 Air Force Confirms F-35As Conducted SEAD in Operation Midnight Hammer Strike on Iran

The Air Force confirmed that F-35A fighters participating in Operation Midnight Hammer—the June 22 strike on Iranian uranium enrichment and nuclear research sites—conducted suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) and later provided fighter cover as the strike package exited Iran. This marks one of the clearest acknowledgments to date of the F-35A executing SEAD in a real-world combat operation. (more)

B-2 “Spirit of Georgia” September 2021

🎯 Plant 42 Brought the Damaged B-2 “Spirit of Georgia” Back to Life

On Sept. 14, 2021, the B-2 Spirit tail number 89-0129 “Spirit of Georgia” suffered a left main landing gear collapse at Whiteman AFB, badly damaging the wing and raising doubts about its future. After a multi-year, four-phased repair effort involving temporary fixes at Whiteman, a one-time ferry flight to Plant 42, and complex composite work valued at $23.7 million, the aircraft returned to flight on Nov. 6, 2025, restoring a critical deep-strike asset to the B-2 fleet. (more)

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Argentina has received its first F-16 fighter jets from Denmark, marking the start of the country’s modernization effort with the newly acquired fleet. (more)

🚩 The U.S. has approved the first export of the AIM-260A Joint Advanced Tactical Missile, with Australia set to become the system’s first international operator. (more)

🚩 Boeing announced a Foreign Military Sales contract for 96 AH-64E Apaches for Poland, the largest Apache order ever by a non-U.S. military, with deliveries beginning in 2028 and Polish crews already in training. (more)

🚩 Two Chinese and seven Russian military aircraft entered South Korea’s Air Defense Identification Zone, prompting ROK Air Force fighters to scramble in the first such incident since November 2024 (more)

🚩 Royal Thai Marine special forces and F-16s conducted strikes against Cambodian along the Trat Province border, hitting sites in an abandoned casino and in Chamrak (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Patriot Missile Launch

Patriot Surface-to-Air Missile System

Threat Name: Mobile Interceptor Missile Patriot (MIM-104)
Country of Origin: United States
Initial Operational Capability: Early 1980s
Primary Role: Long-range air and missile defense against aircraft, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles
Variants: PAC-1, PAC-2, PAC-3, PAC-3 MSE
Range: PAC-2 intercepts aircraft at roughly 70 nautical miles; PAC-3 MSE can intercept aerodynamic targets at similar distances but engages ballistic missiles at significantly shorter ranges due to engagement geometry
Speed: Interceptor speeds reported above Mach 4, depending on variant and trajectory
Payload: PAC-2 uses a high-explosive fragmentation warhead; PAC-3 and PAC-3 MSE use a hit-to-kill kinetic interceptor
Propulsion: Solid-fuel rocket motor
Defensive Capability: Designed to counter aircraft, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles using phased-array radar, automated engagement logic, and multi-target tracking
Recent Combat Activity: Deployed operationally in the Middle East and Ukraine, with confirmed engagements against ballistic, cruise, and air-breathing threats

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE 🎯 

🎯 U.S. Moves to Expedite Sale of 48 F-35s to Saudi Arabia

The United States plans to move quickly on a proposed sale of up to 48 F-35 Lightning II fighters to Saudi Arabia as part of a broader effort to deepen security cooperation in the Gulf, though final approvals must still meet the legal requirement that any Middle East arms sale cannot adversely affect Israel’s qualitative military edge, per the 2008 amendment to the Arms Export Control Act. (more)

• Although the Saudi F-35s will reportedly be downgraded compared to Israel’s F-35I, the sale still represents a major shift in regional airpower dynamics and would make Saudi Arabia the second operator of fifth-generation stealth aircraft in the Middle East.

• Saudi Arabia maintains growing military-tech ties with China — including Chinese technicians supporting systems such as the CSS-2 intermediate-range ballistic missile — raising concerns that the F-35 ecosystem could be indirectly exposed to Chinese access or exploitation. These risks are similar to those which led to Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program after acquiring the S-400 system.

What is a CSS-2? See below for the Threat of Day

🎯 Chinese Firm Acquires Insurer for CIA Operatives Amid Beijing’s Defense Outreach

A U.S. insurance company that provided insurance to CIA and FBI agents was quietly purchased in 2015 by a private Chinese conglomerate with close ties to Beijing’s leadership. The acquisition was financed by a $1.2 billion loan from four Chinese state-owned banks routed through the Cayman Islands, prompting U.S. officials to later reverse course and tighten foreign-investment rules under the Trump administration in 2018. (more)

• The acquisition is drawing fresh scrutiny as new details have emerged over the links to Chinese leadership. U.S. officials say this is yet another example of Beijing using commercial channels as potential vectors of influence, allowing Chinese-linked firms to position themselves near sensitive U.S. institutions without requiring direct access to classified information.

Episode 142 Rob “Trip” Raymond

Episode 141 with Greg “Hoser” Hasen

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🎯 F-22 Pilot Controls Loyal-Wingman Drone From the Cockpit

During a recent flight test at the Nevada Test and Training Range, a pilot in a F‑22 Raptor used a tablet interface to command the MQ‑20 Avenger as part of a collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) demonstration led by General Atomics with partners Lockheed Martin and L3Harris Technologies. (more)

• The demonstration showcased early integration toward crewed-uncrewed teaming, with the F-22 acting as the controlling platform while the drone executed taskings.

MQ-20 Avenger (Photo: General Atomics)

🎯 U.S. Lawmaker Demands Federal Review of Foreign-Owned Trailer Park Bordering Whiteman AFB

A U.S. lawmaker is calling for an immediate national security review into the foreign ownership of a Missouri trailer park that shares a fence line with Whiteman Air Force Base, home of the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and a core element of the U.S. nuclear triad. The property, purchased in 2017 through a chain of shell companies, ultimately traces back to Canadian citizens Esther Mei and Cheng Hu, prompting new scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). (more)

• Mei and Hu have appeared in multiple livestreams with Miles Guo, a Chinese businessman who previously acknowledged working with China’s Ministry of State Security and is currently awaiting sentencing in the U.S.

• At the time of the 2017 purchase, reports indicate Mei served on the board of Urban Select Capital Corporation, an investment firm with links to Chinese government-backed enterprises, raising additional concern about potential espionage vectors.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Anthropic reports it disrupted what it says is the first largely autonomous AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign, after a threat actor (*cough cough* China) used Claude-based tools to target multiple global organizations. (more)

🚩 The U.S. Air Force and the National Nuclear Security Administration conducted the first test drops of the B61-12 nuclear gravity bomb from an F-35A fighter between August 19–21 using inert joint test assemblies. The tests mark a key milestone in integrating modernized nuclear weapons with fifth-generation aircraft. (more)

🚩 The U.S. will help South Korea build nuclear-powered attack submarines under a landmark defence pact, extending Tokyo’s strategic reach against regional threats. (more)

🚩 A former Alaska Airlines pilot who tried to shut down both engines mid-flight during a mental health crisis is avoiding jail time as prosecutors recommend probation/time served in the case. (more)

🚩 Russian state media says the Su-75 Checkmate is now expected to fly in early 2026, with Sukhoi test pilot Sergey Bogdan reporting the prototype is in final hangar prep and entering last-stage refinements. (more)

🚩 Lockheed Martin has unveiled a new Sniper Networked Targeting Pod that adds multi-node data sharing, AI-assisted target processing, and collaborative sensing to the existing Sniper ATP design. (more)

🚩 An Indian Air Force Tejas light combat aircraft crashed during the Dubai Air Show and its pilot has died; an investigation has been launched. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Dong Feng-3 (CSS-2) (Photo: Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance)

CSS-2 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

Threat Name: CSS-2 (DF-3)
Country of Origin: China
Initial Operational Capability: Late 1970s
Primary Role: Intermediate-range ballistic missile for regional strategic strike
Variants: DF-3A (extended range and improved accuracy)

Range: Approximately 1,350 to 1,620 nautical miles
Speed: Estimated Mach 5+ during midcourse ballistic flight
Payload: Typically a single nuclear warhead (~2,000 kg), though a conventional variant was exported
Propulsion: Liquid-fuel, single-stage ballistic missile

Fun Fact:

• Saudi Arabia purchased the CSS-2 in 1987, becoming the only foreign operator. The deal was conducted covertly with Chinese assistance and revealed publicly only after U.S. intelligence confirmed deployment.

• Saudi Arabia first operationally displayed the CSS-2 in April 2014 during a major military parade, surprising analysts who believed the missiles had been retired.

• The Saudi CSS-2s were delivered in a conventional-warhead configuration.

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE 🎯 

NATO Backs Out of Wedgetail Buy, Leaving AWACS Future in Holding Pattern

European NATO members have dropped plans to acquire a fleet of six Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft after the U.S. Department of Defense pulled its support (more below on that), citing rising costs, delays, and survivability concerns. The move leaves the alliance without a confirmed path to replace its aging E-3A Sentry fleet based in Geilenkirchen, Germany. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Did we think we would write six newsletters this year featuring E-7 drama? No, but here we are. The U.S. withdrawal effectively collapsed the multi-national procurement effort, forcing European partners back to the drawing board just as the 1970s-era E-3A approaches the end of its service. But…placed inside the Continuing Resolution to end the 41-day government shutdown, the E-7 was placed on life support. $200 million snuck its way inside the CR to fund the E-7 prototyping for the DoD through January.

But why cancel it when the AWACS is so old? True, cost overruns were part of the equation, but cost overruns rarely stop large defense programs. The real question is survivability. Modern surface-to-air missile systems, drone wingmen, advanced air-to-air missiles, and other weapons have reshaped the air picture. If Pakistan shot down Indian fighters with air-to-air missiles at more than 125 nautical miles, how is a 737-based surveillance aircraft supposed to survive in that environment?

An E-7 with a MESA radar would still be a massive upgrade compared to the E-3. Every fighter would rejoice at not hearing “Darkstar midnight” which is the not-so-uncommon call from E-3 crews telling you their radar is down. The pace of change in the battlespace has accelerated so fast that even a good solution can feel outdated by the time it reaches the ramp. We are now seeing a new emphasis on rapid procurement with the ability to flex as threats emerge and evolve.

🎯 Air Force Eyes $500K Missile While Cheaper Drone Killers Already Prove Themselves

The Air Force has asked industry for concepts to build a “counter-air” missile costing under $500,000 with annual production rates up to 3,500 units. The idea is to create a low-cost, high-volume interceptor for drones and emerging air threats. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Laser-guided rockets like APKWS II, which cost about 15-20K each, have been widely used across the Middle East to swat drones at a fraction of the price. That begs the question: are we trying to solve a $20K problem with a $500K answer, or is there a tier of threats emerging that rockets simply can’t handle?

From a fighter-pilot lens, there are a few things worth watching:
🔺 APKWS has been effective but could struggle as drones get faster, smarter, and more autonomous.
🔺 A $500K missile only makes sense if it fills a gap between cheap interceptors and high-end AMRAAMs.
🔺 Speed matters. If procurement drags, the threat may evolve faster than the solution.

This could be the right move, but only if the Air Force builds something quickly, cheaply, and at scale. Otherwise, it risks becoming another missile designed for a problem that’s already changed.

Episode 141 with Greg “Hoser” Hasen

Episode 140 with Dave “Chip” Berke

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Turkey confirms 20 soldiers killed in C-130 cargo plane crash in Georgia. (more)

🚩 Air Force taps AI to optimize munitions storage, aiming to cut 50,000 man-hours and reduce errors. (more)

🚩 Images suggest China is building its first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Type 004, following the launch of the Fujian-class carrier. (more)

🚩 An unverified social-media post by @IranObserver0 hints Iranian pilots are now in Russian training on the Su-57. (more)

🚩 Russian intelligence ship spotted roughly 15 nautical miles south of Oahu off Hawaii’s coast. (more)

🚩 Footage shows the wings detaching from a Turkish C-130E as it spirals down into Georgia from 24,000 ft. (more)

🚩 Taiwan to receive first U.S. MQ‑9B SkyGuardian drones in 2026. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

T-50 (Su-57 Prototype)

Threat: Sukhoi Su-57
Country of Origin: Russia
Initial Operational Capability: Limited IOC achieved 2020
Primary Role: Stealth multirole fighter for air superiority and strike missions
Proliferation: Russia, Algeria (export contract confirmed. Rumors of Iran (see above snapshot). The T-50 (Su-57 prototype) has made several international appearances at tradeshows over the last few years. On the way back from Zuhai Airshow in Nov 2024 the T-50 was pictured on the ramp in Iran.

Variants:
🔺 Su-57 baseline production model
🔺 Su-57M upgraded version reportedly featuring improved avionics, engines, and weapons integration
🔺 S-70 Okhotnik teamed configuration planned for manned-unmanned teaming

Range: Approximately 1,500 NM (ferry range over 2,000 NM reported)
Speed: Estimated top speed around Mach 2
Payload: Up to 22,000 pounds across internal and external stations
Weapons: Including R-77-1 (AA-12 Adder), R-74M2 (AA-11 Archer) and future K-77M missiles; export discussions include anti-radiation/air-to-ground weapons.
Propulsion: Twin Saturn AL-41F1 engines, with the future Izdeliye 30 engine intended to improve thrust and reliability
Stealth Features: Reduced radar signature through shaping, internal bays, and radar-absorbent materials
Sensors: N036 Byelka AESA radar suite with multiple arrays enabling wide field of view
Defensive Capability: Infrared search and track (IRST), electronic warfare systems, distributed apertures

Recent Combat Activity: Limited operational use reported over Ukraine, including air-to-air missile employment from standoff ranges

Fun Fact:
Only a small number of Su-57s are believed to be fully operational, making it one of the least numerous fifth-generation fighters in service despite being in development since the early 2000s.

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE

🎯 Northrop Begins Production of IVEWS EW Suite for F‑16s

Northrop Grumman has moved its AN/ALQ‑257 Integrated Viper Electronic Warfare Suite (IVEWS) into production, with seventy-two units slated to be outfitted on USAF Block 50 F-16s. The ultra‑wideband system reportedly brings fourth‑generation jets close to fifth‑generation electronic warfare capability. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
IVEWS is the only program of record EW suite tailored to the F‑16 and features advanced digital receivers/exciters that can detect, classify, and defeat modern radar and millimeter‑wave threats. The IVEWS has been touted as putting a “mini E/A-18 Growler” on the F-16.

The F-16 has been upgraded numerous times. While the upgrades are great, many of the components are fully compatible (e.g., turn on your jamming pod and wash out your radar — spiked by an enemy jet, and the radar warning receiver and radar don’t work to correlate the threat, etc). IVEWS is a massive step toward bringing offensive and defensive electronic warfare to the F-16 in the 21st century.

Photo: Northrup Grumman’s AN/ALQ-257 Integrated Viper Electronic Warfare Suite (IVEWS)

🎯 [Developing] Two Injured in Active-Shooter Incident at Air Force Plant 42

Security forces responded to an active-shooter alert at Air Force Plant 42 near Palmdale, California, around 1320 EST on 7 Nov 2025, prompting a full lockdown of the critical aircraft manufacturing complex. Two victims were wounded and treated on-site before transfer to local medical facilities (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Plant 42 is a high-security government-owned, contractor-operated (GOCO) facility supporting production and testing of platforms like the B‑2 Spirit, B‑21 Raider, F-22, and RQ‑4 Global Hawk. Operated under the 412th Test Wing, the 5,832-acre complex employs over 8,500 personnel from contractors, including Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing. Due to its role in classified aerospace programs, the site maintains heightened alert protocols, and incidents trigger immediate national-level security coordination.

🎯 Global Strike Command Recommends One Pilot Plus WSO for B‑21 Cockpit

The B‑21 Raider may shift to a crew of one pilot and one weapon‑systems officer (WSO), according to a memo from the commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, a departure from traditional two‑pilot bomber configurations. (more)

 Lowdown Debrief:
The memo said the RAIDER’s mission demands a blend of advanced airmanship, weaponeering, spectrum management and real‑time battle replanning — skills the WSO would focus on while the pilot flies. Traditional bombers like the B‑2 Spirit use two pilots precisely to mitigate fatigue on ultra‑long sorties, but the B‑21’s high automation and digital architecture could allow re‑thinking of that model. If adopted, crews would train WSOs not just as mission system operators but to fly the bomber if needed, raising questions about long‑haul human‑performance and safety protocols in the next‑generation bomber era. The Air Force has already flown the KC-46 single-pilot and augmented with the Boom Operator. General Minihan, the former Mobility Commander, shared many of those stories on episode 110.

🎯 Fiber Laser Expert Convicted of Economic Espionage in DARPA Case

A federal jury convicted Ji Wang, 63, of stealing trade secrets from a DARPA-funded fiber laser program and attempting to use them to launch a government-backed defense tech business in China. Wang was found guilty of economic espionage and attempted theft of trade secrets and faces sentencing in April 2026. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Wang worked at Corning Inc. on a $11.4 million DARPA program to develop high-powered fiber lasers for counter-drone and missile defense applications. In 2016, he stole hundreds of sensitive files detailing manufacturing processes and later won a Thousand Talents Plan award from the Chinese government, which offered millions in investment to relocate. He marketed the stolen tech as suitable for installation on military vehicles such as tanks and sought to build a fiber laser firm in China with state-backed investors. The FBI and Department of Commerce disrupted the plan before he could commercialize the defense-sensitive designs.

🎯 Dutch to Open AMRAAM Missile Factory?

The Netherlands and the United States have launched a joint feasibility study to investigate local production of the AIM‑120 Advanced Medium‑Range Air‑to‑Air Missile (AMRAAM) in Dutch industry, marking the first time the missile would be co‑manufactured with a European NATO ally. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The study will explore how Dutch firms could contribute to production, assembly and maintenance of the AMRAAM, which is already used by the Royal Netherlands Air Force on its F‑35 fleet and by the country’s NASAMS ground‑based air‑defense systems. Deepening this transatlantic defense‑industrial cooperation is aimed at addressing current US export production shortfalls and accelerating missile delivery for NATO’s support to Ukraine and deterrence in Europe.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 China delays Shenzhou-20 reentry after suspected space debris strike; crew remains safe aboard Tiangong station. (more)

🚩 U.S. Army seeks up to 20 high-energy laser systems to counter drone swarms. (more)

🚩 China’s HQ‑9B air defense system gains momentum in export markets, challenging Western SAM dominance. (more)

Nuke Testing | Anduril CCA Takes Flight | 🎯 China's HQ-9 ←Seems like we just talked about this….

🚩 Multiple personnel fall ill at Joint Base Andrews after a suspicious package is opened; hazmat teams respond. (more)

🚩 USAF inspects entire KC-135 fleet after discovering falsified maintenance certifications tied to flight-control component. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Threat of the Day (TOD)

APG-83 installed on a McEntire ANG F-16

Threat: AN/APG‑83 SABR (Scalable Agile Beam Radar)
Country of Origin: United States
Initial Operational Capability: 2019
Primary Role: AESA fire control radar for 4th-gen fighter modernization. Replaces the APG-68 radar.
Proliferation: U.S. Air Force, Taiwan, South Korea, Greece, Singapore, others

Variants:
🔺 APG‑83(V)1 – Baseline SABR for F‑16 Block 40/50
🔺 APG‑83(V)2 – Configurable version for other 4th-gen platforms and international users.

Detection Range: Classified (estimated >80+ NM for fighter-sized targets)
Modes: Air-to-air, air-to-ground, maritime, synthetic aperture radar (SAR), ground moving target indicator (GMTI)
Targeting: Simultaneous multi-target track and engage; digital beamforming
ECCM/Resilience: Designed to operate in GPS-/EW-denied environments with high LPI/LPD performance
Form Factor: Drop-in replacement for legacy mechanically-scanned radars (e.g., APG-66, APG-68)

Fun Fact:
The APG‑83 shares over 95% software and 70% hardware architecture with the F‑22's APG‑77 and F‑35's APG‑81, giving upgraded F‑16s many 5th‑gen radar capabilities—without the stealth. It was developed by Northrop Grumman specifically to extend the F‑16's operational relevance in high-threat A2/AD environments well into the 2030s.

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE

🎯 Trump Orders Pentagon to Begin Immediate U.S. Nuclear Weapons Testing

Donald Trump has directed the Department of Defense to resume U.S. nuclear‑weapons testing “on an equal basis” with adversaries, following a 33‑year moratorium. The announcement came via social media just ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
To say this marks a major policy shift might be an understatement. The U.S. last tested a nuclear weapon in 1992. China conducted its last test in 1996, and Russia conducted its last test in 1990. North Korea is the only nation to have recently conducted a nuclear test in 2017. China, Russia, and the U.S. are all signatories to the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. However, China and the U.S. never ratified the treaty, and Russia ultimately withdrew its ratification in 2023.

S-400? Dumb Tactical Vehicle 🚨TOD: S-400 Triumf | 🇺🇦 F-16s Destroyed 

Did you catch our latest episode with Dave “Chip” Berke - Only Marine to fly the F-22 and commander of the Marines ’ first F-35 squadron? Find our episodes here.

🎯 Anduril’s Drone Wingman Kicks Off Flight Tests for USAF CCA Program

Anduril Industries’s jet‑powered YFQ‑44A prototype has completed its first flight test as part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, advancing the United States Air Force’s goal of pairing autonomous drones with crewed fighters. The test, conducted at an undisclosed California site, follows the earlier flight of General Atomics YFQ‑42A prototype and marks a significant step toward fielding a potential fleet of 1,000 “loyal wingman” aircraft. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The CCA program, launched in April 2024, aims to field a fleet of collaborative uncrewed aircraft capable of strike, ISR, and EW missions alongside fifth-and sixth-gen fighters like the F‑35 and NGAD. In a break from traditional procurement, the Air Force selected only two finalists: Anduril and General Atomics, explicitly excluding legacy primes such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman from Phase 2. This marks a deliberate shift toward rapid-cycle, software‑defined development, with Anduril’s YFQ‑44A reaching flight in just 556 days from contract start. A production award is expected in FY 2026 for an initial fleet of 1,000 autonomous wingmen.

Twitter tweet

🎯 USAF Seeks 1,558 Fighters to Sustain Low‑Risk Global Operations

The U.S. Air Force told Congress it needs a fleet of 1,558 combat‑coded fighters, roughly 300 more than it currently has, to maintain a low‑risk posture for global operations through 2035. Achieving that goal will require accelerated procurement of F‑35As and F‑15EXs, as well as legislative support for platform retirements and budget increases. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The requirement is outlined in the Air Force’s newly released Long-Term Fighter Force Structure report, which defines 1,558 fighters as the threshold for low-risk global conflict readiness, 1,367 for medium risk, and anything less as high risk. The current fleet includes about 1,271 combat‑coded fighters, well short of the target. Meeting the gap would rely on growing the F‑35A fleet, expanding F‑15EX procurement, and retiring older aircraft like the A‑10 and legacy Block 30/40 F‑16s. The report also references the future addition of at least 1,000 autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft as a complementary force multiplier, though timelines remain fluid.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach confirmed as U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff. Wilsbach, who had previously retired this summer as the Air Combat Commander, was recently nominated to replace the early departure of General Allvin. (more)

🚩 Heavy Russian Il‑76 cargo plane lands in Caracas amid U.S.–Venezuela tensions. (more)

🚩 Former U.S. Army sergeant sentenced to four years in prison for spying for China. (more)

🚩 The U.S. Air Force has awarded a prototyping contract for a successor to the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) with the Next Generation Penetrator (NGP). The 30,000-lb bunker-buster is used to strike Iran’s fortified nuclear sites, indicating a push to develop next-generation deep-penetration munitions. (more)

🚩 Colorado launches lawsuit to block the relocation of US Space Command HQ from Colorado Springs to Huntsville, Alabama, citing alleged political retaliation tied to state mail‑in voting policies. (more)

🚩 SpaceX and EchoStar struck a deal for 50 MHz of U.S. S-band and global MSS spectrum to power Starlink’s next-gen Direct-to-Cell network with 5G coverage and up to 100× more capacity. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

HQ-9

HQ-9 Surface-to-Air Missile System

Country of Origin: China
Initial Operational Capability (IOC): ~2003 (HQ-9A); upgraded variants fielded mid-2010s
Type: Long-range, high-altitude surface-to-air missile (SAM)
Manufacturer: China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation (CPMIEC)

Engagement Range:
 • HQ-9A: ~108 nautical miles (200 km)
 • HQ-9B: ~162 nautical miles (300 km)

Engagement Altitude: ~1,600 ft to 98,000 ft (0.15 to 30 km)
Guidance: Inertial midcourse with data link updates and terminal active/semi-active radar homing
Radar System: HT-233 phased-array fire-control radar with multifunction tracking and guidance role; based on Russian 30N6E designs

Targeting Capability: Fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft, cruise missiles, UAVs, & ballistic missiles

Variants:
HQ-9A: Improved anti-jam and range extension
HQ-9B: Enhanced radar, seeker upgrades, range up to ~162 nm
HQ-9C: Under development, reportedly using AESA radar and fully active guidance
FD-2000: Export model, offered with modular radar options
FD-2000B: Export version with extended range (~135 nm)

Proliferation:
Exported to: Pakistan, Algeria, Turkmenistan (FD-2000 series)
Bidders/Interest from: Turkey (lost to SAMP/T), Egypt, Belarus, Middle East
PLA Deployment: Extensively deployed by the PLA Air Force and Rocket Force, including in coastal batteries near Taiwan, and installations in the South China Sea

Chinese HQ-9

Answer: It was the HQ-9B…think skinny my friends.

Dave “Chip” Berke
F/A-18, F-16, F-22, F-35B
Episode 140 Afterburn Podcast

Note: This is a new segment to pair with our podcast. The newsletter will be back to its regular form shortly but we are interested to see if content such as guest and episode breakdowns is something you are interested in. Please take a few seconds and let us know by answering the poll below:

Only Marine Fighter Pilot to Fly the F-22 Raptor

Among the elite pilots who’ve mastered the skies, Dave "Chip" Berke stands out, not just for his skill but for his unparalleled experience. The only Marine to qualify on both the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, Berke has also flown the F/A-18 Hornet and F-16 Viper, blending Navy and Air Force legacies.

Dave in the F-22 — First and Only Marine To fly the F-22

His latest venture, The Need to Lead: A TOPGUN Instructor's Lessons on How Leadership Solves Every Challenge (released October 2025), with a foreword by Jocko Willink, transforms these cockpit hours into leadership gold. This blog dives into his fighter pilot stories 2025, exploring how each jet shaped his philosophy.

Grab your copy of The Need to Lead via https://amzn.to/4nlA67m

Early Days: From El Toro to the Hornet’s Nest

Dave Berke’s aviation journey began at Marine Corps Air Station El Toro, California, where his childhood fascination with jets took flight. Growing up near the base, he watched F-4 Phantoms and A-4 Skyhawks, igniting a passion that led him to the U.S. Naval Academy. Commissioned as a Marine aviator, his first assignment was the F/A-18 Hornet—a versatile, carrier-based fighter that defined his early career.

Berke’s initial deployment aboard a Navy carrier during the Y2K transition tested his mettle. “My first trap on the boat was a wake-up call,” he recalls on the podcast. The Hornet’s agility in combat operations over Iraq and Afghanistan cemented its status as his “first love.” This phase taught him adaptability, key to surviving carrier landings and combat missions — lessons later echoed in The Need to Lead. For aspiring fighter pilot stories 2025, Berke’s Hornet days offer a blueprint of resilience under pressure.

Jet Analysis: Berke’s Takes on Four Legends

Berke’s career spans four iconic aircraft, each with distinct strengths. Here’s how he breaks them down, drawn from his #AfterburnPodcast insights:

• F/A-18 Hornet: Berke’s entry into combat, excelling in multi-role missions. Its carrier capability shaped his early leadership, focusing on team coordination under tight constraints.

• F-16 Viper: Transitioning to the Air Force’s nimble Viper, Berke marveled at its cockpit visibility. “You see everything,” he notes, a metaphor for situational awareness he later applied to ground combat.

• F-22 Raptor: The stealth marvel pushed boundaries. “It’s ridiculous how it moves,” Berke says, highlighting its edge in dogfights—a lesson in innovation for leaders.

• F-35 Lightning II: As the only Marine dual-qualified, Berke praises the F-35’s B (STOVL) and C (carrier) variants for Marine flexibility. “It’s about mission fit,” he explains, tying to strategic decision-making.

These fighter pilot stories 2025 showcase Berke’s versatility, a theme central to The Need to Lead, where he argues leadership adapts to context—much like choosing the right jet.

The Need to Lead Connection: Leadership from the Skies

Berke’s cockpit experience transcends aviation, forming the backbone of The Need to Lead (Extreme Ownership #3, with foreword by Jocko Willink). On https://youtu.be/qWX5OcjVVAQ, he connects flying to leadership principles. The Hornet taught him humility under pressure, the Viper sharpened awareness, the Raptor inspired innovation, and the F-35 demanded strategic thinking.

A standout moment is his Ramadi 2006 deployment as a Forward Air Controller. Coordinating airstrikes amid “bullets flying overhead,” Berke lost a teammate but learned compartmentalization, focusing on the mission to survive. “Target fixation kills you,” he warns, a cockpit lesson applied to ground leadership. This resilience fueled his PTSD recovery (“Stop talking, start listening”), a personal victory mirrored in the book’s emphasis on self-awareness.

For 2025 leaders—navigating hybrid work or AI disruptions—Berke’s insights offer a universal framework. “Humble, credible, approachable” (a mantra from Top Gun) becomes actionable, as does his advice to avoid ego traps. The Need to Lead distills these lessons, making it a must-read alongside this podcast.

Dave Berke First Marine to Command an F-35 Squadron

Conclusion: Take Flight with Berke’s Wisdom

Dave Berke’s journey from El Toro to the F-35 cockpit is more than a fighter pilot story 2025—it’s a masterclass in leadership. His #AfterburnPodcast episode reveals how each jet shaped his philosophy, now captured in The Need to Lead. Whether you’re an aviation enthusiast or a professional seeking edge, Berke’s narrative inspires.

Grab the book via https://amzn.to/4nlA67m, subscribe for more deep dives into military aviation and leadership, and join the conversation on X with #AfterburnPodcast. What’s your favorite jet from Berke’s lineup? Share below!

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE

🎯 Pentagon Scales Back F-35 Block 4 Upgrades to Curb Growing Delays

The U.S. Department of Defense has rescoped the F‑35 Block 4 modernization to focus on a smaller set of capabilities deliverable by 2031. This decision comes amidst delays and overruns that have pushed the program at least $6 billion over budget. A new report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) confirms that some upgrades, particularly those requiring improved engine power and cooling, have been dropped or deferred to meet more achievable cost and schedule targets. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Block 4 is intended to enhance the F-35 Lightning II with new weapons, electronic warfare tools, sensor fusion, and improved comms and navigation, but depends on the delayed Technology Refresh 3 (TR-3). Originally scheduled to deliver 66 capabilities by 2026, Block 4 is now reduced to a fraction of that, with full implementation pushed to 2031 or later. The revised plan prioritizes features that can be fielded with current hardware while deferring those dependent on future propulsion and thermal upgrades.

🎯 Flight Tests Kick Off on Air Force’s New “Doomsday Plane”

The U.S. Air Force and Sierra Nevada Corporation have begun flight testing the E‑4C Survivable Airborne Operations Center (SAOC) — the next-generation “doomsday plane” — to replace the legacy E‑4B command fleet. The first test flight occurred August 7, 2025 in Dayton, Ohio, with further testing planned through 2026 in Dayton and Wichita. The five-aircraft program, built on modified Boeing 747-8s, is funded under a $13 billion contract and is expected to reach operational service by 2036. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The SAOC is designed to succeed the E‑4B Nightwatch, an airborne command-and-control platform that has served as the U.S. National Airborne Operations Center (NAOC) since the Cold War. Outfitted for survivability in nuclear and EMP environments, the E‑4B has long served as a mobile command post for national leadership. The SAOC, based on the Boeing 747‑8I, will include hardened systems, aerial refueling, and modular secure communications for continuity of government during crisis. Sierra Nevada’s program infrastructure includes a dedicated conversion facility in Dayton and four acquired 747‑8s, laying the industrial foundation for full operational capability by the mid‑2030s.

US Air Force's E-4C Doomsday aircraft. Photo: Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC)

🎯 Rocketing Demand Drives $9.8 B Army Contract for PAC‑3 Missiles

The U.S. Army has awarded Lockheed Martin a record-setting $9.8 billion multi-year contract for approximately 1,970 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) interceptors, the largest such deal ever for the Missiles and Fire Control division. Covering fiscal years 2024 to 2026, the contract supports both U.S. and allied deployments of the Patriot missile system. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
This award adds to a $4.5 billion PAC‑3 MSE contract from mid‑2024, bringing the total to nearly 2,840 interceptors procured within two years. Paralleling this growth, the U.S. recently signed a $3.5 billion record contract for AIM‑120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) to replenish stretched stockpiles and support 19 allied partners, following two prior deals of approximately $1.2 billion and $1.15 billion. Simultaneously, the Navy is ramping up AIM‑9X Sidewinder production under a $1.1 billion contract, boosting annual output to 2,500 missiles at a time when demand is surging across global theatres. According to a recent GAO assessment, air-and-missile defense spending has sharply increased since FY 2021.

🎯 Rocket Salvo: F‑15E Ramps Up Counter‑Drone Role with APKWS II Integration

The U.S. Air Force accelerated integration of the AGR‑20F APKWS II laser-guided rockets onto F‑15E Strike Eagles in May 2025, conducting live-fire tests within just nine days at Eglin AFB, Florida, and fielding the capability within a week. Fully configured with six LAU‑131 rocket pods, the Strike Eagle can now carry 42 precision rockets plus eight air-to-air missiles, dramatically boosting its aerial engagement capacity. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
This integration was driven by operational necessity; past sorties defending Israel in April 2024 against Iranian drones revealed critical limits in missile stockpiles. APKWS II, a cost-effective, laser-guided conversion of the Hydra‑70 rocket, costs approximately $15,000–$20,000 per unit versus the $450,000 AIM‑9X or $1 million AIM‑120, making it a budget-wise counter‑UAS solution. For the F‑15E, even legacy triple-ejector racks salvaged from storage were repurposed to mount the rockets, enabling rapid deployment.

F-15E Firing Rockets During Operational Testing

SNAPSHOT

🚩 For the second time in two days, Venezuelan F-16 fighter jets buzzed the USS Jason Dunham in international waters—what U.S. officials called a “game of chicken”—prompting President Trump to warn that any Venezuelan aircraft flying in a dangerous position may be “shot down”. (more) 

🚩 FBI and Capitol Police are investigating China-linked hacking group APT41 after spoofed emails from Representative John Moolenaar’s office targeted U.S. trade groups ahead of July negotiations .(more)

 🚩 The U.S. Air Force conducted its first-ever pilotless cargo flights in the Indo-Pacific this summer during the Resolute Force Pacific (REFORPAC) exercise. This feat was accomplished using a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan equipped with Joby Aviation’s Superpilot software and remotely piloted from Guam over 4,000 miles away with a safety pilot onboard for oversight, highlighting how autonomous light aircraft could relieve larger transports in contested logistics networks. (more)

🚩 The U.S. Air Force has awarded a prototyping contract for a successor to the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) with the Next Generation Penetrator (NGP). The 30,000-lb bunker-buster is used to strike Iran’s fortified nuclear sites, indicating a push to develop next-generation deep-penetration munitions. (more)

🚩 SpaceX and EchoStar struck a deal for 50 MHz of U.S. S-band and global MSS spectrum to power Starlink’s next-gen Direct-to-Cell network with 5G coverage and up to 100× more capacity. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

Threat: AGR-20 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS)
Country of Origin: United States
Initial Operational Capability: 2012
Primary Role: Precision-guided air-to-surface munition (laser-guided rocket)
Proliferation: Widely exported; operators include the U.S., Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and several NATO allies.

Variants:
🔺 APKWS I – Initial version, fielded 2012
🔺 APKWS II – Improved guidance system, reduced minimum engagement range
🔺 Ground-Launched APKWS (GL-APKWS) – Adapted for ground-based launchers

Block 50 F-16 loaded out with six rocket pods

Range: 2–5 km (1.1–2.7 nautical miles) from rotary-wing platforms; up to ~12 km (6.5 nautical miles) from fixed-wing aircraft
Armament / Payload: Standard 70 mm (2.75 in) Hydra rocket warheads, including high-explosive, anti-personnel, and penetration variants
Propulsion: Solid-fuel rocket motor (Hydra 70 base)
Defensive Capability / Survivability: Precision stand-off reduces aircraft exposure to close-in air defenses; compatible with countermeasure systems
Maximum Speed: Approximately 475 knots (880 km/h; Mach 0.72)

Recent Combat Activity:
🔺 Widely employed by U.S. AH-64 Apache and AH-1Z Viper helicopters against ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria (2014–2019)
🔺 Deployed by Saudi-led coalition aircraft in Yemen for precision strikes with reduced collateral damage
🔺 Used by Ukrainian forces (2022–present) after U.S. and allies provided stocks to counter Russian armor and fortifications

Fun Fact:
The APKWS is essentially a “smart upgrade kit” — a guidance section installed between the warhead and motor of a standard Hydra 70 rocket. This modular approach turned tens of thousands of unguided rockets into precision weapons at a fraction of the cost of a Hellfire missile.

Twitter tweet

Answer: The first AIM-120 AMRAAM kill occurred on December 27, 1992, when Lieutenant Colonel Gary North shot down an Iraqi MiG-25 Foxbat-E in an F-16D Fighting Falcon during Operation Southern Watch over southern Iraq.

General Gary “NORDO” North

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Edited by: Sidney McAlear

FLIGHT LINE

🎯  Navy SEAL Mission Inside North Korea Aimed to Tap Fiber-Optic Cable

In early 2019, a covert SEAL Team 6 mission authorized by then-President Donald Trump aimed to plant an electronic surveillance device on North Korean soil to intercept Kim Jong-un’s communications during nuclear negotiations. Inserted from a nuclear submarine via mini-subs, the SEALs aborted the mission after fatally shooting two to three unarmed North Korean civilians believed to be shellfish divers. The listening device was never installed, and the team exfiltrated under emergency conditions. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:

🎯 KC‑46A Boom Design Blamed for Three In-Flight Refueling Mishaps

A faulty boom design on the KC‑46A Pegasus has been identified as the cause of three separate midair refueling incidents involving U.S. and allied aircraft, according to a new Air Force Safety Center investigation. The incidents occurred in 2020, 2021, and 2023, resulting in over $14 million in damage to a B‑52, a C‑17, and a Royal Australian Air Force F/A‑18F Super Hornet, respectively. Boeing has agreed to cover repair costs. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The report found that the KC‑46’s boom acted with excessive force or insufficient flexibility, leading to physical contact damage during aerial refueling. Notably, the boom lacks an auto-disconnect feature that could have prevented these incidents. The most serious event involved the boom slicing into the canopy of a RAAF F/A‑18F, creating a 2-foot gash. While no injuries occurred, the damage qualifies each as a Class A mishap—defined as involving over $2.5 million in damage or a destroyed aircraft. The KC‑46 boom has been subject to multiple redesigns under the Remote Vision System 2.0 upgrade effort, but the system is not expected to reach full operational capability until at least 2026.

🎯 USAF Takes First Minuteman III Silo Offline

The U.S. Air Force formally decertified launch facility LF 5E10 at F.E. Warren AFB (Wyoming), marking the first operational Minuteman III silo taken offline as it transitions to the next-generation LGM‑35A Sentinel ICBM. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: The Sentinel program, which Northrop Grumman leads, is facing significant cost inflation and delays. The program aims to procure 634 missiles total. The Air Force aims to deploy 400 missiles across new silos throughout the Great Plains, plus hold 25 for development/testing. Officials emphasize that ICBM alert levels remain unaffected during the transition, ensuring no degradation of U.S. nuclear readiness.

The Sentinel program's projected acquisition cost has ballooned from an initial estimate of $77.7 billion to over $140.9 billion, triggering a formal Nunn-McCurdy breach and a full program restructure. Some projections place total costs as high as $160 billion, with lifecycle expenses over 50 years estimated at $264–$300 billion.

Major cost drivers include the decision to build entirely new silos and replace over 7,500 miles of copper cabling with modern fiber optics, after abandoning plans to reuse Minuteman III infrastructure.

Initial Operational Capability (IOC), originally slated for 2029, is now delayed by roughly two years, with the first flight test pushed to February 2031. Despite these setbacks, the Pentagon has reaffirmed its commitment to Sentinel as a cornerstone of U.S. nuclear modernization.

🎯 China Unveils New DF‑61 ICBM

China has publicly revealed the DF‑61, a previously unseen road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, during a military parade marking the 100th anniversary of the PLA. While official specifications remain undisclosed, its appearance adds a new system to the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) strategic inventory. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The DF‑61 joins a growing arsenal of Chinese ICBMs, including the DF‑41, DF‑31AG, and JL‑3 SLBM systems, supporting Beijing’s goal of achieving a full nuclear triad. The new missile underscores China's focus on mobility, survivability, and rapid nuclear force modernization. No official details on range, payload, or deployment timelines have been released.

P.S. DF-61 is the Threat of the Day…See Below

🎯 Greek F-16s Scramble to Intercept Turkish Jets Near Patmos

Hellenic Air Force F-16s intercepted two Turkish F-16s that entered the Athens Flight Information Region without a flight plan, conducting the intercept near the Greek island of Patmos before escorting them back toward Asia Minor. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
Greek–Turkish air encounters are frequent due to overlapping claims in the Aegean, where Greece asserts 10 nautical miles of airspace but only 6 nautical miles of territorial waters, a boundary that Turkey does not recognize. These intercepts sometimes escalate into aggressive maneuvering, raising the risk of accidents. Past incidents include the 1996 Mirage 2000 shootdown of a Turkish F-16 and the 2006 midair collision near Karpathos, both resulting in pilot fatalities.

🎯 125th FW Welcomes USAF’s 500th F‑35A

The U.S. Air Force’s 500th F‑35A Lightning II has been officially delivered to the Florida Air National Guard’s 125th Fighter Wing, arriving at Jacksonville Air National Guard Base. The milestone bolsters the unit’s ongoing transition from F‑15C/D Eagles to fifth‑generation airpower, enhancing homeland defense and Agile Combat Employment (ACE) readiness. (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The 125th Fighter Wing becomes the fourth Air National Guard wing to operate the F‑35A, joining the 158th FW in Vermont, 187th FW in Alabama, and 115th FW in Wisconsin. Over 1,100 F-35s have been delivered worldwide.

🎯 China Showcases J‑20s and Loyal Wingmen in Victory Day Military Parade

China’s Victory Day military parade in Beijing featured a prominent display of advanced airpower, including formations of J‑20 Mighty Dragon fifth-generation fighters and several types of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), signaling rapid strides in autonomous and stealth technologies. Among the systems presented were potential loyal wingman-type drones, suggesting progress toward integrating manned–unmanned teaming in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). (more)

Lowdown Debrief:
The J‑20s flew in formation with what analysts believe to be next-generation UCAVs resembling concepts like the GJ-11 Sharp Sword and other stealthy delta-wing designs. China’s advances come as it attempts to close the gap with U.S. airpower in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in developing loyal wingman systems akin to the U.S. Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program. This parade was held to commemorate Japan’s surrender during World War II.

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Pentagon awards $1.74 billion contract for APKWS rocket production. (more)

🚩 South Korean troops fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the DMZ. (more)

🚩 Russian Kinzhal missiles and Geran-3 drones hit Kyiv on Aug 27, killing at least 16, wounding 48, and striking a hospital, homes, and the Bayraktar drone plant under construction (more).

🚩 Ex-MD Anderson researcher Yunhai Li was arrested in Houston for attempting to smuggle 50–90 GB of U.S.-funded breast cancer vaccine research to China, facing trade secret theft charges (more).

🚩 NORAD intercepted a Russian IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft in the Alaskan ADIZ on Aug 24 with F-16s and an E-3, confirming it stayed in international airspace (more).

🚩 The U.S. secretly approved selling 3,350 Extended-Range Attack Munitions to Ukraine, with first deliveries due in October for strikes up to 250 miles under Pentagon oversight (more).

🚩 The U.S. approved a $103.9M sale of up to 96 AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles to NATO for Belgium, Italy, and Romania, boosting allied F-35 air defense capability (more).

🚩 A Russian fighter intercepted a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon with advanced AN/APS-154 radar off Crimea and southern Russia in the Black Sea (more).

🚩 The United States Air Force inked a historic agreement on August 22, 2025 to train its first batch of student pilots at Italy’s International Flight Training School (IFTS) in Sardinia using the T-346A, marking the first time initial USAF pilot training will occur at a NATO partner’s facility (more).

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

DF-61 During Victory Day Parade

Threat: DF-61 (Dongfeng-61)
Country of Origin: China
Initial Operational Capability: 2025
Primary Role: Road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for nuclear strategic deterrence
Proliferation: Currently limited to China; no exports reported/planned

Variants:
🔺 None officially confirmed. Believed to be closely related to the DF-41 ICBM, possibly a modified successor or variant.

Specifications:

• Range: ~12,000 km (≈6,480 nautical miles)

• Launch Platform: Road-mobile, 16-wheel transporter erector launcher (TEL)

• Guidance System: Inertial guidance with BeiDou satellite updates

• Propulsion: Three-stage solid-fuel rocket

• Armament / Payload: Nuclear warheads, likely MIRV-capable (exact loadout unconfirmed)

• Defensive Capability / Survivability: Road mobility allows rapid relocation, complicating preemptive strikes

• Maximum Speed: Hypersonic (exact values not disclosed; comparable to other ICBMs at >Mach 20)

Recent Combat Activity:
🔺 Unveiled during China’s September 3, 2025 Victory Day parade

Fun Fact:
The DF-61’s transporter erector launcher is almost identical to that of the DF-41, leading to speculation that it may be a disguised variant or rebranded evolution rather than an entirely new system.

Answer: C (19 nations total)

F‑35 Partner Nations (8):

1. United States

2. United Kingdom

3. Italy

4. Netherlands

5. Australia

6. Norway

7. Denmark

8. Canada

F‑35 Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Customers (9):
9. Israel
10. Japan
11. South Korea
12. Belgium
13. Poland
14. Finland
15. Switzerland
16. Germany
17. Singapore
18. Czech Republic
19. Romania

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FLIGHT LINE

🎯 MiG-29 Boneyard Break-In: Key Components Stolen off Fighters

A daring burglary hit a Hungarian Defence Forces base at Kecskemét, where thieves easily cut through the perimeter fence and removed specialized radar components from retired MiG-29 jets stored in what is colloquially called the "Jurassic Park" area. These aircraft, decommissioned in 2010, were kept in reserve. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: The person(s) who carried out this operation clearly had the knowledge, specialized tools, and significant time needed to target and extract key components of the MiG-29. This wasn't a smash-and-grab operation - removing radar components requires technical expertise and proper equipment. Kecskemét is an active military base with modern hardware, and these jets still hold considerable value. While breaking into a military base is not unimaginable, this feels like an "inside job" or, at a minimum, someone turning a "blind eye."

Hungary is a member of NATO, and on 9 August the Hungarian Minister of Defense posted that JAS-39Cs, while forward deployed on a NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, intercepted and identified aircraft violating airspace…but made no mention of the type nor country of origin. Why does the Hungarian government consistently avoid transparency on these incidents, and why do they continually undermine efforts to support Ukraine? Recent reporting indicates the Orbán administration is supporting Russia by bypassing sanctions to facilitate aircraft repairs in Kazakhstan. As evidenced in various reports, Hungary's opposition parties regularly call out these actions, but the government never provides answers.

Hungarian MiG-29s in storage at Kecskemét

🎯 Accidental Ejection: A Bumpy Ride in an F-15D Eagle at Barnes Air National Guard Base

An unexpected ejection incident occurred during taxiing of a US Air National Guard F-15D Eagle at Barnes Air National Guard Base, Massachusetts, with the passenger appearing to have unintentionally ejected from the aircraft. The incident bears similarities to a 2019 case in France. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: Ouch. Getting a ‘surprise’ 20+ G’s to the body is not where you want to be. There will be the standard investigation, but I will venture out on a limb here and say the backseater most likely activated the seat inadvertently. Looking at the picture below, you can envision how this might have occurred. Throw in sensory overload for a passenger who is in an entirely new environment, and you can see how things went sideways.

P.S. Our Threat of the Day is the F-15…down below.

F-15 ACESII

🎯 Propeller-less Plunge: $13 Million MQ-9 Reaper Dives into the Sea

A MQ-9 Reaper drone met a watery end in the Mediterranean Sea due to propeller failure, according to a report from the Air Combat Command. The incident occurred in December 2024, resulting in a complete loss of the $13.1 million unmanned aircraft. The MQ-9 was assigned to Creech AFB, was operated by a crew at Whiteman AFB, and took off from an undisclosed location in the European theater. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: The MQ-9 Reaper's lifetime Class A mishap rate is 2.32 per 100,000 flying hours over 2,673,310 total hours (up to FY21), while the manned F-16's lifetime rate is 4.1 per 100,000 hours. The majority (40%) of the RPA mishaps have historically been attributed to communication failures.

🎯 Singapore and US Abort F-15 Training Plan

Singapore's defense ministry and the US have mutually decided to abort plans to base Singaporean F-15 fighter jets on Guam for training. Operational analysis, site surveys, environmental impacts, and input from the public and government agencies influenced the decision. Despite this, some infrastructure upgrades at Andersen Air Force Base, such as a new aircraft parking apron and a fuel supply system, will proceed. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: Singapore is tight on space. Deploying jets outside their nation’s footprint is not new. For years, Singapore has maintained training detachments at Luke AFB, AZ (F-16s) and Mountain Home AFB, ID (F-15s). Luke has since closed, but Fort Smith, AR will be their new home for F-16 and eventually F-35 training.

🎯 B-2s Make Unexpected Pit Stop at Putin's Alaskan Landing Site

A B-2 bomber, flanked by four F-35s made a perfect time-on-target appearance for President Trump and President Putin as they made their way to the stage in Alaska. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: Will it end the war in Ukraine…doesn’t look like it. Is it a power flex, looks like it. I’m biased, but when you see all the might on display, it is impressive to see what the US military can accomplish.

Sidebar: The Lowdown now has its own YouTube channel. Check it out…

🎯 Poland's Falcon Gets a $3.8B Upgrade, Eyeing Top NATO Spot

The Polish Ministry of National Defence has signed a $3.8 billion Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) with the US government for upgrading its fleet of 48 F-16 Block 52+ multi-role combat aircraft to the advanced F-16 Viper configuration, also known as the F-16V. Lockheed Martin, the primary contractor, will partner with local supplier Military Aviation Works No. 2 to complete the upgrades in Poland. (more)

Lowdown Debrief: 1) This finally names the F-16 its true name, the “Viper” vs “Fighting Falcon.” 2) This is a big upgrade for the Viper, AESA radars, integrated offensive and defensive electronic countermeasure suite etc. The U.S. is upgrading its F-16 fleet with many of the same capabilities…it’s just a bit more compartmentalized.

🎯 Russian Ballistics Dance Past Ukrainian Defenses: A Dangerous Pas De Deux

The Russian upgrade of short-range ballistic missiles - including maneuvering flight paths and radar-decoy systems - is lessening the effectiveness of Ukraine's Patriot systems, according to a recent U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment. Notably, Russia's Iskander-M and North Korean-supplied KN-23s have been enhanced to execute quasi-ballistic trajectories and terminal maneuvers, making it harder for the Patriot systems to calculate their engagement. There's also an uptick in the use of decoys to overwhelm and confuse defenses. Furthermore, collaboration between Russia and North Korea is believed to have improved the accuracy of the KN-23 missile. This development is not just a concern for Ukraine, but also for the international community, as the Patriot is in service with numerous U.S. allies. (more)

SNAPSHOT

🚩 China may have been demonstrating that nuclear bombers are now a fully functional part of its strategic triad, alongside ICBMs and ballistic missile submarines. (more)

🚩 U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancers, escorted by Spanish Air Force EF-18M Hornets, have arrived in Norway for Ally-led training operations. (more)

🚩 Air and Space Force budgets propose $2.3 billion in spending cuts in 2026, impacting over 5,700 civilian jobs. (more)

🚩 The U.S. Air Force is expanding its fleet with additional mobile command centers, designed to comfortably fit within a C-130 aircraft. (more)

🚩 The F-15C Eagle piloted by Cesar “Rico” Rodriguez, who famously downed two Iraqi MiGs in the 1991 Gulf War, has found its final resting place at the Smithsonian’s Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly, VA. (more)

🚩 Raytheon awarded new DoD contract for SM-2 Block IIICU All Up Rounds development program, with completion expected by September 2031. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

McDonnell Douglas F-15 Eagle

Country of Origin: United States
NATO Designation: Eagle
Initial Operating Capability (IOC): 1976
Proliferation Countries: United States, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel, Qatar
Produced: ~1,600 aircraft across all variants

Variants:
🔺 F-15A/B: Original single and two-seat variants
🔺 F-15C/D: Upgraded air superiority versions with improved avionics and engines
🔺 F-15E Strike Eagle: Dual-role fighter with advanced ground attack capabilities
🔺 F-15EX Eagle II: Latest version with modern avionics, weapons integration, and extended service life

Speed: Mach 2.5
Engine(s): Two Pratt & Whitney F100 turbofan engines, each generating 23,770–29,000 lbs. of thrust
Range: ~3,450 miles (with external fuel tanks)
Radar and Targeting: Equipped with advanced radars such as the AN/APG-63 and AN/APG-82, capable of tracking multiple targets at long ranges with modern AESA upgrades

Armament:
🔺 Air-to-Air Missiles: AIM-7 Sparrow, AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9 Sidewinder
🔺 Air-to-Ground Weapons: Precision-guided bombs, Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM), Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) in Strike Eagle/EX variants
🔺 Gun: M61 Vulcan 20mm cannon

“Fun” Facts:

• Holds an unbeaten air-to-air record of over 100 kills with zero losses.

• In 1985, an Israeli F-15 survived losing an entire wing in midair and still landed safely.

• The newest F-15EX is expected to serve into the 2040s.
  

✅ Answer: C

• USA – F-15C/D, F-15E, and F-15EX.

• Japan – F-15J/DJ (locally built under license).

• Israel – F-15A/B/C/D “Baz” and F-15I “Ra’am.”

• Saudi Arabia – F-15C/D, F-15S, and advanced F-15SA.

• South Korea – F-15K “Slam Eagle.”

• Singapore – F-15SG.

• Qatar – F-15QA.

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FLIGHT LINE

🎯 Belarus to host 'Oreshnik' Missiles

During a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin disclosed that sites for the deployment of the 'Oreshnik' missile in Belarus have been decided. The RS-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a strategic weapon and is now in full production. The RS-26 was utilized by Russia against Ukraine in November of 2024, it carried inert or conventional warheads during the strike. (more)

RS-26

🎯 Raytheon Lands Whopping $3.5B Deal for AMRAAM Missiles

The U.S. Department of Defense has handed Raytheon, an RTX business, a record-breaking $3.5 billion contract for the production of Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM). This contract, which is the largest in the program's history, includes Foreign Military Sales to several nations such as Japan, Canada, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine. Global demand for the AMRAAM only appears to be increasing. Currently, 44 nations employ the AIM-120. This hefty deal comes less than a year after Raytheon received a separate $1.2 billion production award…and yes it seems to be tough to keep tracking these. (more)

Airmen loading an AIM-120 AMAARM

🎯 Wasp Nest Buzzes with Radioactivity at Former Nuclear Site in South Carolina

A radioactive wasp nest was discovered at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, a location once instrumental in the production of nuclear bombs in the U.S. The nest was found by employees routinely checking radiation levels, and it exhibited radiation levels 10 times higher than what federal regulations permit. The nest was promptly sprayed with insect killer, removed, and disposed of as radioactive waste. The contamination is believed to be a result of residual radioactivity from the site's operational period. (more)

🎯 U-2's Historic 70th Anniversary Soars to New Heights, Breaking Endurance Records

The Lockheed U-2, also known as the 'Dragon Lady', celebrated its 70th anniversary by breaking two endurance records. The historic flight flew for over 14 hours and covered more than 6,000 NM across all 48 contiguous states of the U.S. The flight, which was 11 years in the making, pushed the operational range of the U-2 to its limits and paid tribute to the legacy of the high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft. The exact altitude reached remains classified, though the U-2 is known for its ability to fly at altitudes above 70,000 feet. (more)

“ULTRALORD” and “JETHRO

🎯 Delhi Bows out of F-35 Plan

India has officially informed the U.S. that it will not be pursuing a purchase of the F-35. The Indian government is keen on jointly designing and manufacturing defense equipment domestically, rather than importing. This announcement followed recent U.S. tariff announcements on India. (more)

Hot Take: The F-35 offer seems to have been mostly surface-level. First, there was a verbal statement from President Trump, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance. Lockheed-Martin (LM) has pitched the F-21 to India for years. The F-21 would be a highly modified F-16 that would be heavily produced inside of India. Six or so years later…still no F-21. Nonetheless, LM has suggested the F-21 could be a great “stepping stone” for India into the F-35.

🎯 KF-21 Boramae: Set for Production

South Korea has inked a deal for the second production batch of the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet, signaling a transformative era for the nation's defense aerospace industry. Developed by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), the KF-21 program has leveraged over 250 domestic suppliers, culminating in a sophisticated fifth-generation fighter jet. The deal ensures delivery of 100 jets by 2032, with the potential for further expansion. Despite stiff competition from global counterparts, the KF-21 offers a unique blend of advanced digital systems, stealth capabilities, and cost-effectiveness, making it an attractive alternative to nations seeking autonomy in defense acquisitions. (more)

🎯 Russia Takes a Deep Dive into Naval Drone Deployment

The Russian elite unmanned systems center, RUBIKON, has started the deployment of strike naval drones, including submersible versions. This move represents a significant development in Russia's unmanned systems operations. The strategic impact of these deployments could be considerable, potentially altering naval warfare tactics. It is a clear indication of the continuing trend towards the use of drones in modern warfare. (more)

Naval Drone

🎯 China's Stealthy Secret: Another High-Performance Jet Takes to the Skies

Recent imagery reveals China is testing a new tailless stealthy combat jet, fueling speculations around its purpose. It could be a highly autonomous, un-crewed combat air vehicle (UCAV) with 'loyal wingman' capabilities, or possibly a sixth-generation crewed jet similar to the J-50. The aircraft's design also points to the possibility of it being a more substantial aircraft, crewed or otherwise. The pace of Beijing's military aerospace developments continues to accelerate, underscored by this latest development. (more)

🎯 Navy Secretary's Shipyard Tour Spree: Phelan Pushes for Urgency, Unmanned Strategy, and Submarine Solutions

Secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, recently made his 12th shipyard visit since taking office, advocating for urgency in the US shipbuilding process. During his stop at the South Korean-owned Hanwha Philly Shipyard, Phelan emphasized the importance of commercial shipbuilding for military purposes. The Navy is also working towards a comprehensive approach to shipbuilding, involving consistent federal funding and a focus on domestic competitiveness. (more)

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Russia is turning to Africa, eyeing Ethiopian Airlines for possible wet-lease agreements and other aviation cooperation amid Western sanctions. (more)

🚩 A Fort Bliss solider was arrested for attempting to transmit classified information to Russia. (more)

🚩 A Security Forces airman at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base fatally shot a civilian who attempted to enter the base. (more)

🚩 A United Airlines flight bound for Germany declared "mayday, mayday, mayday" with an engine failure last month, forcing the jet to hastily retreat to the Washington, D.C. area. (more)

🚩 Fighter jets scrambled, flares fired after planes violate Trump airspace over Bedminster, New Jersey. (more)

🚩 Putin gives Trump envoy award for CIA official's son killed fighting in Ukraine. (more)

🚩 A Czechoslovakian-made agricultural plane armed with Soviet-era heat-seeking missiles is Ukraine’s latest drone-killer. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

The Lockheed U-2 is a high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft developed by the United States, first flown in 1955 and entering operational service in 1956. It was designed by Lockheed's Skunk Works under Clarence "Kelly" Johnson to conduct strategic intelligence-gathering missions primarily during the Cold War. The U-2 entered operational service in 1956, with the CIA and USAF as its primary operators.

Primary Role and Capabilities:

• Strategic reconnaissance and intelligence gathering at extremely high altitudes

• Designed to fly above Soviet air defenses to collect photographic imagery and electronic signals intelligence

• Missions included covert overflights during the Cold War to monitor Soviet military activities and nuclear developments

Technical Specifications and Variants:

• Single-seat, single-engine aircraft with long, glider-like wings for high-altitude flight

• Wingspan approximately 80 feet; length about 63 feet

• Maximum altitude around 70,000 feet, with some test flights reaching 74,500 feet

• Range of about 3,000 miles

• Payload capacity up to 700 pounds of reconnaissance equipment, including cameras and sensors

• Variants include the original U-2, U-2C, and later TR-1 (tactical reconnaissance variant), with ongoing upgrades to avionics and sensors

• Recent Activities and Deployments (2020-2025):

• The U-2 remains in limited operational use with the United States Air Force, primarily for high-altitude reconnaissance missions.

• It supports intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) roles alongside modern platforms.

• Continues to be upgraded with advanced sensors and communication systems to maintain relevance in modern conflicts.

• Deployed in various theaters for ISR missions, including monitoring of global hotspots and support for military operations.

Notable Features and Capabilities:

• Exceptional high-altitude performance enables it to operate above most surface-to-air missile threats

• Long endurance and range for extended missions

• Ability to carry a diverse suite of sensors, including optical, infrared, and signals intelligence equipment

• Unique glider-like design for efficient high-altitude flight

International Use or Export:

• The U-2 has been operated exclusively by the United States; there are no known foreign operators or exports.

• Its missions and operations have been highly classified and sensitive, limiting international proliferation.

✅ Answer: B) S-75 SA-2 ‘Guideline’

On May 1, 1960, a Soviet S-75 SA-2 ‘Guideline’ surface-to-air missile shot down Francis Gary Powers’ U-2 during a high-altitude reconnaissance mission over Sverdlovsk. The incident exposed the limits of U-2 invulnerability, intensified Cold War tensions, and led to the collapse of a planned U.S.-Soviet summit. The SA-2 would go on to become one of the most widely deployed SAM systems of the era.

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FLIGHT LINE

🎯 Pilot's Treason: Ukraine Arrests Air Force Officer for Leaking Fighter Jet Details to Russia

Ukraine's domestic security agency has apprehended an air force officer accused of spying for Russia by providing critical location information about Western-supplied F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighter jets. The officer, holding the rank of major, was assigned to one of Ukraine’s air brigades and served as an instructor pilot. The officer is alleged to have helped Russia carry out air strikes by providing coordinates and suggesting strike tactics. (more)

🎯 From Qatari Royal Jet to Air Force One: The Billion-Dollar Makeover

The U.S. government has formally accepted a luxurious Boeing 747-8 private jet, often referred to as a "flying palace," as an unconditional gift from the Qatari royal family. This jet is expected to be transformed into a potential Air Force One. The plane, which features plush interiors, will be stripped down and retrofitted to the highest U.S. security and communication standards. The estimated cost of this retrofitting could be as high as $1 billion. The funding for the retrofit will reportedly be drawn from the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program. (more)

A few unique capabilities of VC-25A, the official designation of the 747:

• Aerial Refueling

• Electromagnetic Pulse Protection

• Defensive & Electronic Counter Measures

• Robust Communication Suite

• Medical Facility

If we ignore the security piece for a moment…and that is a rather large piece IMO, retrofitting the gifted 747 to provide the same capabilities as the current VC-25 fleet (and future VC-25B) is going to be a significant task. The VC-25B, expected in 2027 or 2028, will not possess aerial refueling capability; this was a decision driven by cost savings.

The VC-25B are two 747-8i’s that were originally built for a Russian Airline that went bankrupt. The Air Force announced the 747 as the replacement in 2015 and in 2018 awarded Boeing a $4 billion dollar contract to modify the 747s. Boeing currently estimates it will lose approximately $650 million dollars on the fixed price contract.

🎯 Lockheed's THAAD Reload: A $2B Deal After Middle East Missile Mayhem

Lockheed Martin has secured a hefty $2.06 billion contract modification to replenish the U.S. government's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. The THAAD system, a key component of U.S. ballistic missile defense, saw intense usage during a recent 12-day conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. and Israeli forces used more than 150 THAAD interceptors to counter Iranian ballistic missiles. The new contract heightens the total value of the current production agreement to over $10.4 billion, with work scheduled to continue until December 2029. (more)

THAAD

🎯 Hackers Swing Digital Hammer, Crack Open CIA's Tech Vault

Unidentified hackers have breached the Acquisition Research Center (ARC) website, a key platform used by the CIA and other U.S. agencies to manage sensitive contracts. Among the compromised data was information from the classified Digital Hammer initiative, a key tech development program central to U.S. intelligence gathering and counterintelligence operations. (more)

🎯 F-16s Consolidation Test Phase II Commences at Osan AB

The U.S. Air Force's F-16s are on the move, marking a major milestone in their Super Squadron Test. They're relocating from Kunsan Air Base to Osan Air Base in a strategic move to evaluate the efficiency of larger consolidated fighter squadrons. A total of 31 F-16s and 1,000 airmen will be temporarily reassigned for Phase II of the test. Phase I saw nine F-16s and 150 airmen moved to the 36th Fighter Squadron at Osan AB. With Phase II set to continue through October 2026, the focus will be on assessing maintenance, manpower, and logistics requirements on a larger scale. (more)

🎯 Man Overboard: USS George Washington Scours Timor Sea for Missing Sailor

The aircraft carrier USS George Washington suspended a search-and-rescue operation in the Timor Sea after receiving reports of a sailor who went overboard. The sailor was reported missing on Monday off the coast of Northern Australia. The Navy suspended the search Wednesday afternoon. (more)

🎯 Air Force Grounds M18 Pistols, Swaps for M-4 Rifles After Fatal Incident

Following the death of an active-duty airman on July 20 at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, the Air Force Global Strike Command has suspended the use of Sig Sauer M18 pistols. The suspension affects both operational and training activities, and the weapon is to be replaced by the M-4 rifle until further notice. The Sig Sauer P320, two versions of which (M18 and M17) were adopted as standard sidearms by all U.S. military branches in 2017, has faced numerous allegations of unintentional injuries due to accidental discharges and alleged design flaws. (more)

SNAPSHOT

🚩 Ground testing has begun on the production representative MQ-25 Stingray tanker drone for the U.S. Navy ahead of an expected first flight before the end of this year and eventual acquisition of 76 drones. (more)

🚩 Boeing receives approval to kickstart the next phase of 777-9 certification from the U.S. FAA. (more)

🚩 C-130J transport plane flies again after five years post-hard landing in Germany, undergoing the first-ever wing replacement in the field. (more)

🚩 Coast Guard offloads more than $74 million in illicit drugs interdicted in the Eastern Pacific. (more)

🚩 Delta Air Lines Flight DL56 makes emergency landing after plunging 1,000 feet mid-flight, with 25 individuals hospitalized for evaluation. (more)

🚩 An F-35C Lightning II fighter jet crashed into a field in Fresno County, California, with the pilot ejecting safely. (more)

🚩 The U.S. Air Force has showcased a new HQ-16 surrogate target vehicle for advanced pilot training against modern air defense threats. (more)

🚩 Ukraine arrests Chinese father and son, both accused of spying on Neptune anti-ship missile program. (more)

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

The PL-15 is a Chinese long-range, active radar-guided air-to-air missile (AAM) developed by the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA) based in Luoyang. Its development began in the early 2010s, with initial test firings in 2011 and public references by Chinese state media from 2015 onward.

Initial Operational Capability Date:

• Around 2015 to 2017, the PL-15 was inducted into service with the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and People's Liberation Army Naval Air Force (PLANAF).

Primary Role and Capabilities:

• Designed as a beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM).

• Intended to replace the earlier PL-12 as the standard long-range missile for Chinese fighter aircraft.

• Capable of engaging targets at very long ranges, reportedly between 200 and 300 kilometers…or 120 to 190 “ish” nautical miles…a.k.a. that’s not great news

• Equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar seeker, allowing autonomous target tracking and engagement in electronically contested environments.

Technical Specifications and Variants:

• Length: Approximately 4 meters (enabling four missiles to fit inside the internal weapons bay of the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter)

• Propulsion: Dual-pulse solid rocket motor for sustained high speed which enables speeds exceeding Mach 5, enhancing range and maneuverability.

• Guidance: AESA radar seeker for active radar homing

• Variants include:

  • PL-15E: Export version with reduced range, possibly due to different propellant or motor design; displayed at the 2021 Zhuhai Airshow.

  • PL-16: A thinner, compressed carriage variant developed to fit six missiles inside the J-20’s internal bay; features folded fins and a high-performance dual-pulse motor to maintain performance comparable to the PL-15. Confirmed in 2024 and shown with folding rear fins at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow.

Recent Activities or Deployments (2020-2025):

• Integrated into multiple Chinese fighter platforms including the Chengdu J-10C, Shenyang J-16, Chengdu J-20, and Shenyang J-11B.

• The PL-15E export variant has been publicly displayed at the Zhuhai Airshow in 2021 and 2024.

• In 2025, Indian forces reportedly recovered debris of a PL-15E missile, providing valuable intelligence on its propulsion and guidance systems, marking the first known recovery of this missile from a live conflict environment.

• The PL-16 variant development and deployment efforts continue to enhance internal weapons carriage on stealth fighters, increasing missile payload capacity.

Recovered PL-15 by the Indian Air Force, Presumably from a PAK JF-17

Answer: D) Appox 190 miles.

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F-35 with AGM-158 Tests
See the Threat of Day Below for more on the AGM-158

FLIGHT LINE

🎯 The Bears are Back in Town: U.S. Intercepts Russian Warplanes

On July 22, 2025, U.S. Air Force fighters from the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted a Russian flight consisting of two Tu-95 Bear bombers and two Su-35 Flanker fighter jets near Alaska. The mission involved U.S. F-35s and F-16s along with a support aircraft, lasting over three hours. The Russian warplanes, which were operating in the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), did not enter U.S. or Canadian sovereign airspace. This type of Russian activity is considered regular and non-threatening, echoing Cold War era encounters. The long-haul flight comes two months after Ukraine's spy agency launched a drone attack on Russian airfields, severely damaging at least six Tu-95s. (more)

🎯 F-35 Shopping on Hold Until Lockheed Fixes Upgrade Issues

The U.S. Air Force won't resume full purchases of the F-35 fighter jet until Lockheed Martin addresses issues with delayed upgrades. The decision is driven by new Department of Defense priorities and frustrations over delays, leading to a request for only 24 new jets, down from 44 purchased in 2025. The Air Force is insistent on receiving a fully capable Block 4 jet from the start, rather than jets that will need retrofitting. The full combat version of the TR-3 upgrade, crucial to Block 4, has been announced by Lockheed, but the F-35 Joint Program Office has yet to confirm or provide a timeline for formal approval. (more)

Along those lines….Lockheed has pitched a facelift for the F-35 in an ambitious pitch. Lockheed Martin CEO, Jim Taiclet, calls for a substantial "Ferrari" upgrade of the F-35 using technologies developed for the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, with the belief that this could bridge the gap to the emerging F-47. Despite Lockheed's recent $1.6 billion losses, largely attributed to a secret Skunk Works unit aeronautics program, Taiclet insists that the F-35 is "here to stay" due to its proven combat capabilities and strong international interest. (more)

🎯 Space Age Heist: Engineer Admits To Swiping Missile Secrets Worth Millions

A San Jose engineer, Chenguang Gong, recently pleaded guilty to stealing trade secrets related to advanced missile-detection technology. Gong smuggled over 3,600 files, including designs for infrared sensors and counter-infrared systems, many of which were proprietary, export-controlled, or for official use only. This technology was partially funded by the U.S. government and valued in the hundreds of millions. The theft occurred amidst Gong's involvement with Chinese government-backed "Talent Programs," further indicating interest in transferring U.S. defense-related research abroad. Gong now faces up to 10 years in federal prison for his actions. (more)

Chenguang Gong

🎯 Azure Skies Clear of Chinese Engineers for US Defense Support

Microsoft has revised its protocols to prevent Chinese engineers from providing technical support to US defense clients using the Azure cloud services. The move comes after concerns of national security and cybersecurity risks associated with the Defense Department's reliance on Microsoft's Chinese software engineers. This shift will affect the operations of Microsoft's Azure division, which generates more than 25% of the company's revenue. The change is in response to a report by ProPublica describing the potential vulnerabilities to cyberattacks from China due to "digital escorts" overseeing Microsoft's Chinese Azure engineers. (more)

🎯 NASA's X-59 Supersonic Jet Passes Taxi Test, Aims to Shush Sonic Booms

NASA's X-59 "quiet" supersonic jet, designed to fly faster than sound without generating disruptive sonic booms, has completed preliminary taxi tests at the U.S. Air Force's Plant 42 facility in Palmdale, California. The tests were conducted to ensure the jet's steering and braking systems function correctly. Lockheed Martin, the aircraft's developer, and NASA will next perform high-speed taxi tests in preparation for takeoff. The X-59's ultimate goal is to help reinstate commercial supersonic flight in the U.S., which has been prohibited for decades due to the noise disruption caused by sonic booms. Its success could significantly reduce flight times for civilian travel and other applications. (more)

X-59

🎯 The AIM-120 AMRAAM Missile Gets a High-Tech Refurbishment

The AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile) has served for over three decades and is now set to receive a significant upgrade. The new versions of the missile, namely the AIM-120-D3 and the AIM-120E, are vastly different from their counterparts. The updated missile versions will feature a two-way data link for long-range third-party targeting, potentially exceeding the reach of the launching fighter's radar arrays. Raytheon envisions a future where AMRAAMs are used for relatively long-range engagements at a lower cost, with AIM-260s used for higher-end engagements. The Air Force is requesting $665.1 million in 2026 to purchase 483 new AMRAAMs. (more)

🎯 China's Stealthy Navy: New J-35 Fighter Jets Join the Fleet

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy has ushered in a new era of aviation with the induction of the J-35 stealth fighter jets into service. Developed by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, these fifth-generation fighters are expected to perform land and future carrier operations. This marks a significant upgrade from the Navy's previous J-20 fighters. The J-35 is seen as a lighter counterpart to the J-20, with lower development costs due to shared technologies. The addition of these stealth fighters is set to widen the gap between China and the rest of the world in terms of stealth fighter production. (more)

🎯 Belgium Breaks the Bank on Defense: F-35s, Frigates, and Anti-Air Systems on the Shopping List

Belgium is stepping up its defense game with a strategic plan that involves a hefty investment in F-35 fighters, frigates, and billions in air defense. The plan is the country's response to decades of being one of NATO’s lowest defense spenders. Belgium’s defense budget will increase to 2% of GDP, amounting to €12.8 billion (US$14.9 billion) in 2025, a significant increase from the estimated 1.29% allocated in 2024. The country will order an additional 11 F-35 fighters, buy 10 NASAMS systems for ground-based missile defense, and purchase a third anti-submarine warfare frigate. The spending spree aims to bolster Belgium's military capabilities and restore its diplomatic credibility. (more)

SNAPSHOT

➤ Senate has given the green light for Lohmeier to serve as the 29th under-secretary of the Air Force.

➤ The 510th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, based at Aviano Air Base, Italy, has returned from a deployment to the Central Command area of responsibility. The squadron, known as the Buzzards, broke records, flying 8,800 hours and 1,400 sorties Nine of their pilots earned Single-Event Air Medals, while two received the Distinguished Flying Cross.

➤ BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has imposed restrictions on the use of company-issued devices for staff visiting China. Employees are advised to use temporary loaner phones and are prohibited from using company laptops or accessing the BlackRock network during personal travel in the country.

➤ Turkey is on the verge of finalizing a $5.6 billion deal to acquire 40 new Eurofighter Typhoon jets from a consortium that includes Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. This purchase is part of Turkey's efforts to bolster its Air Force capabilities.

➤ Italy, long a stalwart of NATO, is set to bolster its electronic warfare capabilities with the acquisition of two EA-37B Compass Call electronic attack aircraft. The deal, worth $300 million, was recently signed following approval by the U.S. State Department in 2024.

THREAT OF THE DAY (TOD)

AGM-158

Threat: AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)
Country of Origin: USA
Initial Operational Capability: 2009
Primary Role: Precision, long-range, stealthy air-to-ground cruise missile

F-15E with AGM-158 markings

Variants

 🔺 AGM-158A JASSM – Baseline variant, subsonic, stealth features, in service since 2009
🔺 AGM-158B JASSM-ER – Extended-Range variant (in service since 2014), with a more efficient turbofan engine and over twice the range of the original
🔺 AGM-158B-2/B-3 – Upgraded ER models with enhanced GPS, new missile control unit, and improved survivability (B-3 to include military-grade “M-Code” GPS)
🔺 AGM-158C LRASM – Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, optimized for maritime targets, with advanced seeker and networking capability, deployed since 2018.
🔺 AGM-158D JASSM-XR – Extreme-Range variant, debuting 2024, with range up to 1,000 miles (1,800km), larger fuel load, advanced data links, and modular warhead.

F-35 during AGM-158 testing

Speed: Subsonic (approx. Mach 0.7)
Range:
🔺 JASSM-A: ~230 miles (370km)
🔺 JASSM-ER: ~575–620 miles (925–1,000km)
🔺 JASSM-XR: Up to 1,000 miles (1,800km)

Warhead: 1,000lb (450kg) class penetrator/blast-fragmentation (WDU-42/B) for defeating hardened, high-value targets.

Propulsion

Baseline: Teledyne CAE J402-CA-100 turbojet (AGM-158A)
Extended Range: Williams F107-WR-105 turbofan (AGM-158B/ER and derivatives)

Armament

• Single high-precision warhead (typically 1,000lb class)

• Modular payloads possible in future variants

Guidance & Survivability

• Inertial navigation system (INS) with GPS guidance

• Imaging Infrared (IIR) seeker for terminal guidance

• Advanced jam-resistant GPS receivers (newer variants)

• Stealthy airframe to penetrate contested environments

• Data link and retargeting capability (JASSM-XR and future upgrades)

Platforms

• Strategic Bombers: B-1B Lancer (24x), B-2 Spirit (16x), B-52H Stratofortress

• Fighter Aircraft: F-15E, F-16, F/A-18, F-35 (external only), others

• Maritime: LRASM variant deployable from F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, B-1B, and soon F-35 and P-8

• Rapid Dragon: Palletized launch from C-130/C-17 transport aircraft

Answer: B) Around 25 times. NORAD reported roughly 25 Russian aircraft detections in the Alaska ADIZ in 2024