The final major of 2026: the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club

The final major of the 2026 season has arrived with the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. Royal Birkdale has been the host of several historic champions, most recently Jordan Spieth in 2017, and we’re in for another incredibly exciting week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: MATCHUP TOOL UPDATE 🚨

We made some serious updates to our Matchup Tool on Bet The Number in the last week. We made updates earlier this year to bring in the groupings for each tee time. That was an awesome update, but books aren’t always offering lines on guys who play together for full-tournament matchups.

We’re now bringing in all the matchups that DraftKings offers, from single-round matchups to full-tournament matchups. With the click of a button, you can now analyze bets that DK offers, and you can see all relevant stats & prop metrics for how each player performs. See below for an example of just one of the matchups being offered this week.

You’ve gotta check this out! We’re looking for feedback and want to ensure we’re offering the best tools for PGA Tour bettors on the market.

BTN Matchups Page: New DK Matchups offered

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

It is going to be a CRISPY week of golf here at Royal Birkdale this week. We haven’t seen much rain, and the forecast isn’t calling for any. It’s not the same course we saw in 2017, with Mackenzie & Ebert coming in for a renovation in 2021. While every hole got some attention in the renovation, the main changes came on the back 9. The former 14th hole is no longer there, and the former 15th hole is now a longer par 5. The new 15th hole is a longer par 3. So all in all, the back 9 is now offering more variety for shot-making as these players are coming down the stretch.

It’s been pretty public about how longer irons are running out upwards of 300 yards in the practice rounds. At the end of the day, you don’t want to overthink the golf course at an Open. Hit fairways, avoid (most) the pot bunkers and get creative around the greens, grind out the weather with the rest of the field, and you’ll find yourself in contention come Sunday. Let’s take a look at our model this week

The BTN Open Championship Model

It’s a major week, but the model doesn’t need to be complicated. Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Royal Birkdale:

• OTT: These players gotta keep it in play this week. It’s firm, and it’s fast. Keep it out of the fescue as much as possible. We are using standard SG: OTT per round + Driving Accuracy % for 20% weight each this week.

• APP: We’re focusing on approach shots from 150+ this week. We’ll see some longer approach shots, despite how firm it will be. We’re weighing this SG: APP from 150+ at 30% this week

• ATG: It’s an Open Championship, you need to scramble well to win. We’ve included standard scrambling this week at 20% weight.

• Putting: We’re using a simple SG: Putting per round vs. field at 10% weight this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Tommy Fleetwood & Scottie Scheffler, both scoring a perfect 10. Tommy has the most T10 finishes at a major without a win in the last 10 seasons. Scottie is coming off his first missed cut since before the internet. Followed behind them is last week’s champion, Tom Kim, and many hot-handed golfers… so let’s sit back and enjoy our last major of 2026.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Tommy Fleetwood & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (13-7-4) 🤼‍♂️ 

Chris Gotterup (-102) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-130) on DraftKings

I don’t know how many heaters the golf gambling gods will allow us to go on, but we’re on another one now, so we might as well ride it straight into the season’s final major.

This week, we head to Royal Birkdale for the 154th Open Championship, and our matchup play is Chris Gotterup over Xander Schauffele. Gotterup is the underdog here, but we’re having a hard time seeing why.

Gotterup has simply been the more consistent player this season, and three wins in one year do not happen by accident. He’s also already shown he can handle links-style golf, winning the Scottish Open last year and following it up with a solo 3rd at The Open. That plays for us.

Xander obviously has the bigger name and a tremendous Open Championship record, including a win a couple of years ago, but he’s been searching for steady footing all season. The flashes are still there, but the week-to-week trust has not been.

The BTN numbers back it up too. Gotterup checks in 44th in the overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Xander sits 72nd. Gotterup also grades out solid across the board, especially with the ball striking, and he’s been the much more reliable putter this season. Xander’s putter has looked like it’s on loan from week to week, and that is not exactly what we want when trying to survive an Open Championship.

So we’ll gladly take the hotter player, the better BTN profile, and the underdog price with Gotterup. Xander has the Open pedigree, but right now Gotterup has the form, the confidence, and the number we want. Let’s carry this heater across the pond and back to the payout window one more time.

Chris Gotterup vs Xander Schauffele in the BTN M

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

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GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

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There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Team Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club this week.

Hop off that John Deere tractor cause the PGA Tour travels across the pond this week to the Genesis Scottish Open. Chris Gotterup is coming to defend his title after prevailing last week. It’s an awesome story for an event that has been incredible over the last few years, always a stacked field with most of the world’s top players looking to enjoy an event on a true links-style course before the final major of the season. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Renaissance Club is a challenging par 70 at 7,237 yards, including three par 5s and five par 3s. The course has a lower than average fairway rate, given the links-style layout, and features 0.3 fewer birdies and 0.3 more bogeys per round than the Tour average. They did slightly re-route the course this year compared to years past, but it’s still the same holes. Although the weather forecast doesn’t have a ton of rain, we can expect the Scottish elements to play a factor, with double-digit winds expected all weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Conditions are expected to be firm, so the ball will roll a long way. Players who can avoid fairway bunkers will have an advantage here. Given the links style of the course, there isn’t much of a rough penalty as tee shots roll out of the fairways. The BTN model uses SG:OTT per round at a 20% weight this week.

• APP: Players will be hitting longer than average shots, especially with the windy conditions. The greens are tricky, so you want a strong approach play to help players get more birdie looks and minimize 3-putts. The BTN model uses standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week. PLUS another 20% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yards from the fairway.

• ATG: The main storyline with the ARG play here is that players will be hitting plenty of longer fairway chips. The BTN model uses SG:ARG from 20+ yards out in the fairway at a 10% weight.

• Putting: Lag putting season. Players will have plenty of long putts and will need to nestle them close for comfy pars. We focus on the shorter putts that are trickier to hole here with the slower greens. The BTN model features both 3-putt avoidance at 20% weight and SG:Putt from 4’-8’ at 10% weight to reward players that can convert on these tricky greens.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler. This isn’t super surprising, with both players showing great recent form and course history here. Alex Fitzpatrick is in our top 5 again, and it will be interesting to see how he fares this year with his newfound game after back to back MC’s at this event. We’re in for another exciting Scottish Open!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (12-7-4) 🤼‍♂️ 

Patrick Reed (-116) ✅ over David Puig (-112) on DraftKings

Doug Ghim got us an even-money winner last week, so we’ll gladly pack that ticket and head across the pond for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club.

This week, we’re taking Patrick Reed over David Puig, also known as the faceless profile pic mystery man. Reed checks in 30th in the overall BTN Custom Model, while Puig sits way down at 123rd. That’s a pretty healthy gap for a matchup priced this close.

Neither guy has much recent course history here, so we’re leaning on fit and trust. The Renaissance Club is a par 70 Tom Doak design in North Berwick with links-style flavor, wind, firm conditions, and plenty of spots where creativity around the greens matters. That sounds a little more Patrick Reed than faceless avatar energy.

Give us Reed’s short game, experience, and ability to survive when things get weird across the pond. If he scrambles his way around The Renaissance Club like we think he can, we’ll gladly follow him back to the payout window.

Patrick Reed vs. David Puig (faceless) in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

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GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

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• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run this week.

The PGA Tour takes on the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, this week. We’re coming off a dramatic Monday finish at the Travelers last week, where Viktor Hovland took down World #1 Scottie. But that’s in the past, because we’ve got one of the more exciting events of the year happening this holiday weekend. IT’S THE JOHN DEERE CLASSIC! Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

A par 71 measuring at 7,327 with only 3 par 5s. There are several holes with less than driver necessary off the tee, so we’re going to see a lot of approach shots between 120-190, and we’ll see the players who separate themselves on the perfect Bent greens.

It is so hot this week, and to make things even better, we’re gonna get some rain and a lot of humidity with it. Based on the forecast, we could get a delay on Friday with some projected storms. Keep an eye on even lower scoring if this course softens up

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Several less than driver holes. Length is helpful, but not as important as in other weeks. The rough is thin, and the course is dry (for now). We used the SG:OTT per round vs. field at a 20% weighting this week

• APP: Look for some darts from short range this week. We used the SG:APP per attempt vs. baseline within a 100-190 yard range at a 35% weighting this week

• ATG: Chipping is not much of a factor this week… the contenders will hit a lot of greens, and so we used SG:ARG per round vs. field at a 5% weighting this week

• Putting: Look for the 8-15 footers to differentiate players with tons of birdie looks in that range. We used the SG:Putting per attempt vs. baseline in that range, filtered to Bent & Bent/Poa greens, at a 20% weighting this week

• Birdie or Better Percentage: The John Deere brings low scores, so we once again threw in BoB percentage to round out the model at a 20% weighting this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Jackson Koivun. How’s that for a professional debut? He’s only got 4 guys on the board with lower outright odds than him, and he’s a perfect 10/10 in our model this week. He’s tied with Keith Mitchell at another perfect 10, followed closely behind by Gotterup and a couple of recent form players. Let’s sit back and enjoy one of the biggest tournaments of the year (to some 😉)

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Jackson Koivun & Keith Mitchell as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (11-7-4) 🤼‍♂️ 

Doug Ghim (+100) ✅ over Jacob Bridgeman (-130 on DraftKings

There are some weeks on the PGA TOUR where you just have to punt and move on. But never, ever, under any circumstances, for the John Deere Classic. The fifth major deserves our full attention, obviously.

This week, we’re getting a rare shot at an even-money underdog, and we’re going to lean on the BTN Matchup Tool to back Doug Ghim over Jacob Bridgeman.

Over the last 24 rounds, the matchup tool shows Ghim with the edge in several key categories, and this feels much closer than the odds suggest. The BTN Custom Model has Bridgeman 13th and Ghim 17th overall this week, which is not exactly some massive gap when one guy is laying -130, and the other is sitting there at even money.

TPC Deere Run can fit a lot of different styles, and we’ve seen that over the years with the variety of winners here. But accuracy off the tee still matters, and that’s another box checked for Ghim. He’s hitting 67% of fairways compared to Bridgeman at 61%, which should help him keep the ball in position and give himself plenty of scoring chances.

We’re always looking for slight edges with Bet The Number, and this week the edge looks like the better number on a very live underdog. So give us Ghim at even money, a clean card, and hopefully a brand-new tractor ride straight back to the payout window.

Doug Ghim vs Jacob Bridgeman in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

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GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands this week.

The PGA Tour takes on the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands this week in Cromwell, Connecticut. We’re following up the U.S. Open with another signature event where Wyndham went wire to wire and was able to close out his 2nd Major championship. Last year, we had an incredible finish with Keegan’s victory, and we’ve got another strong field this week, so let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC River Highlands is a shorter par 70, measuring out at 6,844 yards with only 2 par 5’s. Scores have gotten lower since the stronger fields have shown up here. There have been a few minor design changes in recent years, but nothing of significance for scoring. It has rained a bunch, and the course is soft this week, so we can expect scores to be low.

Let’s dive into this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: There are a few non-driver holes on each nine. Accurate drivers are rewarded here. The course is only a 3.4/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale, and although the rough is healthy, it’s not that penal. We just have standard SG:OTT vs. the field in the BTN Model, weighing in at 20%. 

• APP: The large majority of approach shots here are inside of 200 yards. There are very few long shots and only one par 3 that’s long. Players who create birdies with a 9-iron or less will separate themselves this week. We’ve got a standard SG:APP vs. the field at 20% weighting + SG:APP per attempt in the 125-180 yardage range at an additional 20% weighting. 

• ATG: Chipping is relatively straightforward here. Being in the bunkers on many holes is a penalty, but the grass type doesn’t provide any challenge. If you REALLY wanted to dive deep, you could look into longer fairway chips, as there will be a few on key holes this week, like #13 & #15. We have a standard SG:ARG vs. field at a 15% weighting this week. 

• Putting: A lot of mid-range birdie looks will be had by the contenders this week. 8-15 footers are more of a factor this week than those 5-10 foot par saves. We used the same course filters as last week, with this being poa that doesn’t putt like West Coast poa. Lag putting here is elementary, coming in from Shinnecock though. We used a SG:Putting per attempt in the 5-15’ range at a 10% weighting. 

• Birdie or Better Percentage: Conditions of the course are soft. We think there’s going to be some low scores this week, so we threw in BoB to round out the model at a 15% weighting.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. A notable standout would be the newcomer and potential future Ryder Cupper, Alex Fitzpatrick, coming in at 3rd in the model, with strong play since he’s been out here. Coming off a major win last week, we’ll see if Wyndham can keep up the solid play, but with a strong bunch of guys at the top, anything can happen.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (11-7-3) 🤼‍♂️ 

Kristoffer Reitan (-102) ✅ over Shane Lowry (-128) on DraftKings

Reitan at near pick’em is the sharper side here, and we’re backing it with confidence.

This week, we’re sticking with Kristoffer Reitan over Shane Lowry, and the BTN Matchup Tool continues to back it up. Reitan holds the edge in scoring, total strokes gained, off the tee, approach, around the green, greens in regulation, birdies or better, and bogey avoidance.

Lowry brings the name value, but Reitan is the one bringing the form. At TPC River Highlands, where scoring and precision matter, Reitan’s profile fits exactly what we want.

We’ll ride the hotter player at a near pick’em price and look to cash out once again. Another win, another celebration.

Kristoffer Reitan vs Shane Lowry in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number

The third major of 2026: the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club

The third major of the 2026 season has arrived with the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Just like Oakmont last year, Shinnecock doesn’t get regular Tour Stops. Just like Oakmont last year, we can expect Shinnecock to be a brute. J.J. Spaun won at -1 last year, and the last time we saw the U.S. Open at Shinnecock, Brooks won at +1! Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Shinnecock has been infamous for the difficult conditions the players faced in 2018. One can argue that the memory of Phil Mickelson hitting a moving ball on the green was more popular than Brooks winning the tournament itself, and that’s a problem. So the main talking point this week is going to revolve around whether they will “lose the course” again or not. More on that shortly.

Shinnecock is a par 70 with only two par 5s and only one par 3 under 180 yards. It’s renowned for its crowned green complexes, where everything falls off on the edges and requires some creativity around the greens. The fairways are wider than your traditional US Open course, which will be one single nice thing for the players. We’re still focused on guys who hit it near the center of the fairway, cause obviously if you miss them you’re in trouble. It’s a U.S. Open, the script is usually pretty simple: Hit Fairways, avoid doubles, make your par putts, and capitalize on the opportunities when you can get them.

Straight from the BTN Course page, Shinnecock 2018 stats are fascinating. Below is a screenshot highlighting how the Fairways Hit are almost 12% higher than the PGA Tour average, while Greens in Regulation are 11% lower than average. Highly recommend diving into our Course page on BTN for these insights

BTN Course Insights on the Course Research Page

Although we are seeing and hearing about consistently watered greens, potentially even slightly aerated to let the greens absorb the water more easily, it’s safe to say we’re still going to get some carnage. Boots on the ground are telling us that it’s getting firm, and Shinnecock doesn’t really need help from the external conditions we’re expecting to play more difficult.

The wind we’re expecting will be diabolical. If they do get some of this projected rain, it could help delay the inevitable of the greens firming up. If we see gusts upwards of 30-40mph and we DON’T get the rain, kick back your feet and watch these guys get punched in the mouth by this golf course. The annual tradition of watching the course win begins tomorrow.

The BTN U.S. Open Model

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Shinnecock:

• Majors: We included an SG: Total in majors weight in there this week at 16%

  • Who does this favor? Top 5 SG in Majors since 2023 are Scottie, Rory, Russell Henley, Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau

• OTT: We’re using two OTT metrics this week… standard SG: OTT at 20% paired with Distance from the Edge of Fairway at an additional 10%

  • Who does this favor? Top 5 SG: OTT over their last 30 rounds since 2024 are Bryson, Rory, Niklas Norgaard, Gary Woodland, and Neal Shipley. The top 5 players who hit it closest to the center of the fairway are Russell Henley, Ben Kohles, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, and Matt Fitzpatrick

• APP: We’re focusing on the longer approach shots with a 15% weight on SG: APP from 175-250

  • Who does this favor? Players that pop in this category over their last 36 rounds since 2024 are Joaquin Niemann, Niklas Norgaard, Ben Kohles, Si Woo Kim, J.J. Spaun, and Alex Fitzpatrick

• ARG: We’ve included generic scrambling at a 12% weight this week to handle the inevitable missed greens from the field

  • Who does this favor? Players that are up and down machines: Andrew Putnam, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Cam Young

• Putting: We’re focusing on Bent/Poa and Bent greens this week and are applying a combination of filtered, standard SG: Putting at 10% with an additional 5% weight on SG: Putting between 5-10 feet.

  • Who does this favor? Players that excel in that 5-10 feet range on Bent/Poa and Bent greens: Jacksoin Koivun, Sam Burns, Alex Noren, Taylor Montgomery and Bryson DeChambeau

• Bogey Avoidance: We’ve included bogey avoidance at a 12% weight this week to wrap everything up. Pars are king at the United States Open.

  • Who does this favor? Players that are allergic to bogeys: Scottie, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Silverman, Cam Young, Tom Kim and Bud Cauley

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy & Scottie Scheffler, both scoring a perfect 10. Can’t say we’re surprised here, we’re seeing 6 of the top 10 in the world modeling well. Strong in majors, strong in scrambling & avoiding bogeys. We’re in for an exciting weekend!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (10-7-3) 🤼‍♂️ 

Collin Morikawa (-120) ✅ over Bryson DeChambeau on DraftKings

New week, new major, and we’re moving on to the United States Open Championship at Shinnecock Hills, where our matchup play is Collin Morikawa over Bryson DeChambeau.

This one is finesse vs. brute force. Bryson can turn golf into a science project with ball speed, protein shakes, and whatever is happening in that lab of his, but Shinnecock may not care what comes off the 3D printer this week. This is a classic U.S. Open setup, and precision still matters.

That’s where Kawa makes sense. In the BTN Matchup Tool, Morikawa has the edge in approach, around the green, fairways hit, greens in regulation, birdies or better, pars, and bogey avoidance. Scrambling should be huge, and Kawa has gained strokes around the green in nine straight starts, while Bryson has lost around the green in four straight.

The BTN Custom Model also puts a premium on approach shots from 125 to 200 yards this week, where Morikawa ranks 12th in the field, and Bryson sits 106th. That’s a massive gap for a course where one bad iron shot can send you into fescue, sand, and deep personal reflection.

Give us the sharper iron player, the improved short game, and Kawa to keep it tidy while Bryson worries about the next YouTube thumbnail, and we head back to the payout window.

Collin Morikawa vs Bryson DeChambeau in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week, and good luck with your bets!

Team Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley this week.

The Postman won’t be delivering the mail this week after his victory at the Memorial, but the PGA Tour does head back to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the second edition of the RBC Canadian Open at this venue. After last year, we’ve got a tournament’s worth of ShotLink data to better understand what separates contenders here. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Rolling Stats 📈 

We always listen to our customers at Bet The Number, and they’ve been asking for this. The Rolling Stats page shows you how guys are performing in any official stat we get from the PGA Tour over the last 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 rounds.

Positioned under the BTN Research Tab, you can find the Rolling Stats tool available today. The picture below showcases an example of just one of the many stats we have at our disposal for you to do your own deep dive.

Top 10 Putters on the PGA Tour from 5-15’ sorted on Last 24 Rounds

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley is back, and here’s what we learned last year:

• It was soft last year.

• Winning Score: -18 (Ryan Fox > Sam Burns in a playoff)

• T20 Score was -12

• Driving Accuracy: 66% (Tour Avg: 59.6%)

• GIR Percentage: 72% (Tour Avg: 65.7%)

• There were only 3 guys with more than 6 Bogeys or Worse in the T20 last year. Had to convert your opportunities and avoid mistakes

There was a rain delay today, so we can expect it to be soft again. There will be some extra wind in the forecast to make it more challenging. TPC Toronto is a relatively long par 70 with only two par 5s. There’s definitely variety with six par 4s over 480 yards and two under 380 yards, and two par 3s over 220 and two under 160 yards.

Depending on how windy it gets, it’s a good guess that we’ll see similar performance to last year out here. Let’s dive into an updated BTN model this week from last year:

• OTT: There’s certainly some strategy required off the tee here, with a number of doglegs. Long hitters have an advantage on the long par 4s, but the shorter holes minimize that advantage. We’ve included standard SG: OTT in this week’s model at 20%

• APP: We’re focusing on two yardage ranges this week. SG: APP from 100-150 yards and then 200-250 yards, at a 25% and 20% weight, respectively. We’re honing in on the ball striking in spots where it will separate contenders.

• ATG: Nothing extraordinary to call out here. Standard SG: ARG at 10% weight to account for the handful of up and downs on these longer par 4s.

• Putting: We’ve got two putting metrics we’re looking at this week: First, focusing on the Bent/Poa greens that TPC Toronto has, so we have a SG: Putting per round vs. field and a filter on Bent/Poa weighted at 15%. Then we have an SG: Putting between 8-15 ft weighted at 10%

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Sam Burns. The man who lost in a playoff last year gets the nod after a T5 finish last week at the Memorial. Let’s enjoy some Canadian golf this week, friends!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Sam Burns as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (10-6-3) 🤼‍♂️ 

Eric Cole (-112) ✅ over Harry Hall (-118) on DraftKings

Well folks, the heater finally came to a sad little end last week, so it’s time to dust ourselves off and head north for the RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto, Osprey Valley’s North Course. Our matchup play this week is Eric Cole over Harry Hall, and we’re honestly a little surprised Cole is the underdog. But when the window wants to hand us a better number, we’re not going to argue.

The BTN numbers make this one pretty clear. Cole checks in 13th in our overall BTN Custom Model this week, while Hall sits all the way down at 94th. That’s a pretty big gap for a matchup where Hall is still the favorite.

The recent form points in the same direction. Cole comes in rolling with two straight top 10 finishes, while Hall has missed two cuts in his last three starts. Over the last 20 rounds, the BTN Matchup Tool gives Cole the edge in total strokes gained, approach, around the green, putting, greens in regulation, birdies or better, and bogey avoidance. That’s not exactly splitting hairs. That’s the matchup tool grabbing us by the collar and pointing us toward Cole.

Hall does hit a few more fairways and makes a few more pars, but Cole is the guy doing the actual damage right now. So we’ll take the better form, the better BTN profile, and the underdog price with Eric Cole to get us cooking in Canada and send us back to the payout window.

Eric Cole vs Harry Hall in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

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GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

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Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number

The second to last signature event of the 2026 season has arrived with the 50th anniversary of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio. As a signature event, we have a 72-player field with the top names in golf competing at Jack’s place. There is a 36-hole cut to be aware of with top 50 including ties and those within 10 shots of the lead making the weekend. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Muirfield is a challenging par-72 course which plays a lengthy 7,569 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see quite a bit of red with the course playing materially harder than average in Greens in Reg, Scrambling, Scoring vs Par, Birdies per Round, Bogeys per Round, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, and Par 5 scoring. Woof. The one area of relief here is average prox. where Muirfield sits at the edge of the top quartile of Tour courses.

A few nuggets from our boots on the ground this week:

1. The greens are very firm.

2. The rough is thick. It’s not super long but will be a factor.

3. If we get wind out of the northeast, watch out. Greens will become trampolines.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Check out the rough penalty at Muirfield village. No bueno. We’re putting all of our OTT weight this week behind driving accuracy at 15% of our model.

• APP: Iron play is at a premium this week with the greens being this firm. 150-225 yards is the key distance bucket with 10 or so approach shots from this range. We’ve got standard SG:APP at a 15% weight in our model, and SG:APP from 150-225 yards from the tee and fairway at an additional 25%.

• ATG: With notably low GIR rates and scrambling rates, around the green play will definitely factor into success this week. Guys will need to get up and down to save par. We have standard SG:ARG at a 10% weight in our model.

• Putting: Colonial has some of the purest bent greens on Tour. Putting will be essential both to convert a few birdie looks and save pars. We have SG:PUTT on bent greens at a 10% weight in our model this week.

• Bogey Avoidance: Muirfield is a tough track. The players that minimize the squares on their scorecard can find themselves in contention. Bogey avoidance rounds out our model with a final 25%.

This week’s BTN Model favorites are (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young, AND Russell Henley all scoring perfect 10s in the model. Pretty rare we see 3 guys scoring perfect 10s, but these 3 are all playing great golf this season including Russ’s win last week in Fort Worth. Should be a great event at Jack’s place in its 50th anniversary.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Matchup of the Week (10-5-3) 🤼‍♂️ 

Matt Fitzpatrick (-112) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-118) on DraftKings

Well folks, we didn’t cash a ticket last week, but we didn’t lose one either because it finished as a straight-up tie. So guess what? By our very official and not-at-all-biased Tour Junkies accounting department, the heater is still alive.

This week we head to Jack’s Place for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village, and our matchup play is Matt Fitzpatrick over Xander Schauffele. This one is a little scary because both guys are elite, but we’re riding the hotter hand and backing Fitzy to stir up one of those famous Muirfield Village milkshakes and pour it all over Xander’s scorecard by Sunday afternoon.

On paper, and in our golf brains, this looks like a pretty even matchup. But when we drill down inside the BTN Matchup Tool, Fitzpatrick starts to separate. Over the last 24 rounds, Fitzy has the edge in total strokes gained, approach, around the green, fairways hit, birdies or better, and bogey avoidance. That’s a strong little profile for Muirfield Village, where you better be sharp with the irons and avoid turning Jack’s Place into a personal house of horrors.

Xander has been solid at Muirfield, and we are certainly not here to pretend he’s suddenly bad at golf. That would be dumb, and we try to save our dumb for more important moments. But Fitzpatrick has been plenty good here too, with two top 10s in his last three starts at the Memorial. He also checks in top 5 in the BTN Custom Model this week, while Xander sits at 10th.

In a short field with this much talent, we know this one could turn into a four-day fistfight. But the form, the course fit, and the BTN numbers all point us toward Fitzy. So we’ll slide the heater money across the counter and back Matt Fitzpatrick to shake up Jack’s Place and send us right back to the payout window.

Matt Fitzpatrick vs Xander Schauffele in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

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GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

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Best of luck this week!

Team Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club this week.

The PGA Tour takes on the Charles Schwab Challenge this week at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Wyndham Clark got back in the winner’s circle last week, gaining over 20 strokes on the field at TPC Craig Ranch. Several top guys are resting this week before the Memorial, so we’ve got a little more of a wide-open field here in Fort Worth. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

As a generally difficult par 70 with only two par 5s and tough par 3s, Colonial is known to play tough. We’ve seen a good bit of rain this week already, so we’re expecting it to play slightly softer and easier than last year. The greens are small, so accuracy is necessary on approach, and scrambling is at a premium here. Last year, we saw -12 win the tournament, and with the soft conditions, we think scores will be a little lower and the leaderboard a bit more congested.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With narrow fairways, plenty of trees, and lots of doglegs, accuracy comes at a premium over distance at Colonial. The course is only a 3.5/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale and has a strong rough penalty. We expect most of the scoring to come around the greens, though, and just have standard SG:OTT in the BTN Model.

• APP: The large majority of approach shots at Colonial come from the 125-200 yard bucket, which is the featured distance range in this week’s BTN Model. As mentioned earlier, the course has a strong rough penalty and features small greens, which make approach play difficult.

• ATG: Chipping will separate top performers this weekend. With a low GIR rate and plenty of tough second shots for those missing fairways, getting up and down will be essential to saving pars. In the BTN Model, SG:ATG is the highest weighted of any event in weeks, and we’ve also added Scrambling as a key stat to the model.

• Putting: Colonial might have the purest bent grass greens on Tour. Players who putt well on bent grass will find themselves contending during this tournament, and the BTN Model has SG:Putt filtered to bent grass courses.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ludvig Aberg. Will the Swede get it done in Fort Worth?

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Ludvig Aberg as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (10-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Justin Thomas (-122) ✅ over Hideki Matsuyama (-108) on DraftKings

We cashed a ticket yet again last week, and we can promise we don’t have any plans of stopping while we’re hot. This week, we head to the classic Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge, where we’re taking Justin Thomas in one of the marquee tournament matchups over Hideki Matsuyama.

Neither JT nor Hideki has played much at Colonial over the last several years, so we’re not going to spend much time pretending course history is the magic decoder ring this week. Instead, we’ll lean on the stats, which feels like a decent idea considering we have the BTN Matchup Tool sitting right there doing all the heavy lifting for us.

Over the last 24 rounds, JT looks like the more solid player across the board. He has the edge in total strokes gained, off the tee, around the green, fairways hit, pars, and bogey avoidance. That last part matters plenty at Colonial, where you don’t have to be perfect, but you probably should avoid turning a 430-yard par 4 into a small crime scene.

JT also comes in with the better recent form, posting three top 25s in his last four starts, including a 13th at the Wells Fargo and a T4 at the PGA Championship. Hideki certainly hasn’t been terrible, because Hideki is rarely terrible, but his best finish over his last three starts is a T26 at the PGA.

We’ll gladly back the guy with the better form, the cleaner profile in the matchup tool, and a game that should fit just fine around Colonial. Give us JT to keep it tidy, avoid the big number, and hopefully drive us right back to the payout window again.

Justin Thomas vs Hideki Matsuyama in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

Coming off an inspiring performance at the PGA Championship last week from Aaron Rai, we’ve got 2 non-signature event stops before we head to Columbus for the next signature event. This week, the PGA Tour takes on the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. A completely renovated course will bring a fresh look to this tournament. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Craig Ranch will play as a par 71 measuring just under 7,400 yards. We don’t have boots on the ground this week, but we do know the course underwent a massive $25M renovation since last year’s event. The primary goal was obvious: prevent another Scottie Scheffler-style 30-under runaway and introduce more demanding decision-making throughout the course. Greens have been reduced in size, bunker complexes tightened up, and approach angles appear far more important than they’ve been in previous editions here.

Even with the changes, this should still be a venue where players can make plenty of birdies. The property remains relatively flat and forgiving off the tee, and there are still reachable par 5s along with an abundance of short/mid iron approach opportunities. Pure distance alone likely won’t separate the field, but elite iron players who consistently control trajectory and distance should benefit from the redesigned green complexes.

The key question this week isn’t whether players can score… they will. The question is whether the renovations have introduced enough penalty around the greens to create meaningful separation. If the new surfaces firm up and the tighter bunker positioning starts punishing slight misses, Craig Ranch could finally shift from a pure putting contest into a more complete ball striking test, with winning scores landing closer to the 15-20 under par instead of another massive birdie fest.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: We’re focusing on recent OTT performance this week. Narrowed to the last 12 rounds, we used standard SG:OTT vs. field at a 20% weight this week in our model

• APP: Similar story as OTT, we’re putting heavy weight on the recent APP performance this week. Last 12 rounds, standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week combined with an additional 10% on SG:APP from 175-250.

• ATG: Because of the renovations, we’ve factored in a 10% weight on recent SG:ARG performance with a 10% weight in the model

• Putting: We’re focused on Bent greens this week. We are using a standard SG:Putting at 10% weight (filtered to Bent greens) combined with an additional SG:Putting from 8-15 feet on Bent greens for another 10% weight to reward those that can convert birdies

• Scoring: We know you need to score this week, so we added Birdie or Better % at a 15% weight this week in the model to factor in players converting their birdie opportunities

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The books are extremely high on Scottie with an outright price of +168 on DraftKings as of this writing. He’s trying to repeat from last years dominant performance, but seems to be missing a little something in his game as of recent. We’ll see if he can get the job done at this absurd outright price.

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (9-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Blades Brown (-104) ✅ over Doug Ghim (-128) on DraftKings

Well folks, you could say we’re on a slight heater again after cashing another ticket last week with Alex Fitzpatrick over Jacob Bridgeman at the PGA Championship. We don’t expect that heater to flame out in the Texas heat either, as we roll into the CJ Cup Byron Nelson with the young gun Blades Brown over Doug Ghim.

Ghim is the favorite in this matchup, and you can certainly understand why. He has a lot more PGA TOUR experience and has been slightly better than average for, well, most of his career. Blades, on the other hand, is a star in the making and has already shown he can hang with just about anyone. Whether it’s on the Korn Ferry Tour or the PGA TOUR, where he threatened to win, played alongside Scottie Scheffler, and almost fired a 59 just a few months ago, the kid clearly has some serious juice.

The stats back up the play too. Even with limited PGA TOUR data, Brown is outperforming Ghim in most major categories, and this feels like the kind of setup where talent and upside may matter more than experience. Could Blades get his first win this week at TPC Craig Ranch? Absolutely. A little sprinkle on the 80-1 outright number is not the worst idea in the world.

But for now, we’ll gladly settle for the matchup and trust Blades Brown to stay sharp enough to cut through Ghim and send us back to the payout window again.

Blades Brown vs Doug Ghim in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The second major of 2026: the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club

The second major of the 2026 season has arrived with the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Last seen on tour in 2018, where Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship, we’re back in Newtown Square, PA, for what will hopefully be another exciting major championship week. We’ve got Scottie trying to defend his title, and a lot of red-hot golfers trying to keep him from doing so. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Aronimink is a Donald Ross course that was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2017. It’s a long par 70, measuring around 7300 yards and only two par 5s. This course definitely favors the bombers, as it will be a wedge fest for the long hitters this week. Carrying the ball over 300 yards allows you to separate yourself from the pack. There are a few beefy par holes (par 3s and a few long par 4s) to keep an eye on as well, once again favoring the long hitters.

They’re expecting some rain tonight, but if that doesn’t come, then we’re going to see some firm conditions going into the weekend. If that’s the case, those fairways will shrink, but they will be true for everyone. If players are missing fairways, length becomes even more pivotal.

From what we’re hearing on the ground, the front 9 is playing easy, and the last 5 holes will have some serious teeth. The rough has topped out and shouldn’t be super penal. On many holes, you’ll still be able to hit the green from the rough cause you’ll be hitting a wedge. But it really all comes down to pin positions… Every hole has a few hard locations and a few easy ones. So we’ll see big differences every day, even with similar weather conditions.

The BTN PGA Championship Model

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats that we’re factoring into our BTN Model this week at Aronimink:

• OTT: Bombers will love this place. If you can carry the ball 300+ out here, you’ll have an edge over the field. There are only 16 players in the field who average 300+ carry distance. We’re using both SG: OTT and Carry Distance in our model at a total weight of 25%

• APP: No secret, you’re going to have to hit some good approach shots to win a major championship. We’re using 3 variations of SG: APP in our model this week, starting with a standard SG: APP (per round, vs field) at 10%. Then we’re factoring in the long approach shots you’ll expect with a 25% weighting on SG: APP (per shot, vs. baseline) from 175-225 yards. We’ve got an additional 10% weighting on SG: APP (per shot, vs. baseline) with just Fairway & Rough filtered there to account for the shorter approach shots you’ll have that roll into the rough in those firm conditions.

• ATG: We’re not putting much weight on chipping here, only putting 5% on SG: ARG. We’re much more focused on hitting greens and making putts.

• Putting: We’ve got more emphasis on putting than normal this week. There are big slopes, and you’ll definitely see a lot more break than normal on those mid-range putts. We’ve filtered down to the Bent/Poa courses (74 courses to be specific), and we’re combining standard SG: Putt with SG: Putting from 4-10 ft for a combined 25% weight this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy & Cameron Young, both scoring a perfect 10. The top of the leaderboard is stacked with a combination of elite ball strikers and long bombers, with Morikawa, Woodland, Ludvig, and others sitting in the top 10. You will notice that Scottie is NOT in our Top 10 this week… so we’ll have to see how he performs when he’s not at the top of the model projections. We’re in for an exciting major championship weekend!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy & Cameron Young as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (8-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Alex Fitzpatrick (-118) ✅ over Jacob Bridgeman (-112) on DraftKings

The ticket cashed again last week, and we’re going to try to keep that train rolling right into the 108th PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, just outside Philadelphia. Our play this week is a bit of a surprise underdog, at least to us, with Alex Fitzpatrick over Jacob Bridgeman.

Fitzpatrick may not be on the same heater as his older brother Matt, but little brother Fitzy has been pretty darn good himself lately. He has two top 10 finishes in signature events immediately following his first PGA TOUR victory, where he helped anchor the team alongside his brother at the Zurich Classic.

Bridgeman, meanwhile, came out of the gates hot this season but has definitely cooled off. He has no finish better than T33 at the Heritage over his last four events, and the stats have started to follow. Bridgeman has lost strokes in every major category in each of his last two starts, which is not exactly the profile we’re looking to back at a PGA Championship venue like Aronimink.

That’s not the case for Fitzpatrick, who has been solid across the board and especially sharp with the ball striking. He gained nearly 8 strokes ball striking at the Cadillac and followed it up by gaining 9.5 strokes last week at Quail Hollow. That kind of tee-to-green form travels, and it should matter plenty on a Donald Ross course where the greens are going to ask some serious questions.

The greens at Aronimink will be the star of the show, but to putt well on them, you actually have to find them first. We’re betting Fitzpatrick gives us the better chance to do that, and hopefully, little brother Fitzy can lead us right back to the payout window.

Alex Fitzpatrick vs Jacob Bridgeman in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Player Putting by Surface Type on the Player Page.

We’ve started making some tweaks to our player and course pages, and we felt this was a missing piece of functionality on Bet The Number.

As we highlighted above, we care a lot about Bent/Poa putting performance, specifically this week. You’ve been able to get this information already from the model when you apply those filters, but now we’re giving you a graphic on every player’s profile for each surface on which they separate themselves.

Below is a graphic of one of the best putters on Tour, Sam Burns. Sam is popping in our model this week, primarily due to his well above average performance putting on Bent/Poa.

Sam Burns SG: Putting by Surface Type

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow this week

The PGA Tour takes on the Truist Championship this week at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is the first time the Truist has been at Quail, with the PGA being here last year and this event being the Wells Fargo for as long as it has. We’re back with another Signature Event, a field without Scottie Scheffler, and it's definitely going to be an eventful week. We’ve got some rain hitting Charlotte today and tomorrow, already affecting the tee times in the first two rounds, with some potential for more storms coming late Sunday. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Quail is the PGA Tour’s Fortune 100 annual stop. Corporate as it comes, but an elite brand nonetheless. It ranks as one of the longer courses we see every year, coming in at just under 7,600 yards. A par 71 with only three par 5’s and a couple of other scoreable holes, this course demands length and precision. Holes 8 and 14 are two incredible risk/reward driveable Par 4’s… so if we’re lucky, maybe we’ll even catch the first ace on a par 4 since 2001 on the PGA Tour.

Contrary to last year’s PGA, we’ve got minimal rough this week and more of a firm and fast golf course. The greens are really fast and sloped, so made putts are harder to come by than normal. It’s also worth noting that the sub-air system beneath the greens will defer some of the softness that this rain will bring.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Hit the ball far here, boys! You’ll want the distance OTT to give you the opportunity for the shorter, higher approach shots into these firm greens. Especially if this rain ends up really softening the course, the guys who get it out there are going to have the advantage. We’ve got standard SG: OTT combined with Carry Distance in our model this week for a total of 25% weight.

• APP: A long golf course naturally means some long approach shots. We’ve been here before, we’re focused on 175-225yd APP shots combined with standard SG: APP. We’ve got 50% of our model focused on approach shots this week.

• ATG: Quail isn’t necessarily the easiest course to chip on, but the conditions are always immaculate. The greens are fast and sloped, so if you do miss the green, you need to have a sharp short game to avoid big mistakes. We’ve included standard SG: ARG at 10% weight this week in our model.

• Putting: Quail has fast, firm, and sloped greens. The way you can separate yourself from the pack is by converting those short to mid-range putts. We’ve included standard SG: Putting and SG: Putting from 4-10’ in our model this week, both stats filtered to overseed greens, weighting 15% total in our model.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Adam Scott & Cameron Young. We don’t have Scottie this week; we’ve got a red hot Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick playing some outstanding golf. Adam Scott, coming off a T4 last week at Doral, popping as a perfect 10 in our model week is something to keep an eye on 👀

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Adam Scott and Cameron Young as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (7-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Adam Scott (-118) ✅ over Sam Burns (-110) on DraftKings

We had to sweat it all the way through Sunday last week, but Sam Burns finally got us across the finish line over Hideki Matsuyama. Yay for us. Now we’re doing what any responsible golf bettor would do: immediately turning around and fading the guy who just won us money. So, we’re turning the page and turning the tables with Adam Scott over Burns this week at the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow Club.

You have to be impressed with the way Scott has played this year. At the ripe age of 45, he’s quietly been solid week in and week out, making the cut in every start with five top 25s and two top 5 finishes, including last week at the Cadillac. Perhaps we should also mention he checks in at number one in the BTN Custom Model this week for Quail Hollow. The putter is always the concern with Scott, but he’s been excellent with his irons, especially the long irons, which are a key piece of our model this week.

Burns has certainly not been bad by any stretch. He’s still one of the best putters on the planet and has played solid golf overall, but the short game has been sus at best this year. At a place like Quail Hollow, that could very well be the difference in this matchup.

It’s another no-cut event this week, so we’ll have to ride this one all the way to Sunday, but our bet is on Adam Scott to flush Sam Burns out the covey this week and take us back to the payout window again.

Adam Scott vs Sam Burns in the BTN Matchup tool

BTN Social Media 🚨 

We’ve brought on a new social media team member at Bet The Number, so keep an eye out for more social posts highlighting data from our platform!

Follow our X account HERE

Follow our Instagram account HERE

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7-day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral - Blue Monster Course this week.

The PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster this week for the first time since 2016. This is our second Signature Event in 3 weeks, following the Masters, so we don’t have the full star-studded lineup you’d think. But the name of the course certainly holds, and we’re still in store for some great golf this week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We’ve got a 7,739 beast of a par 72 designed originally by Dick Wilson this week. The course was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2014, when the course went through a total overhaul. That overhaul led to the longer and tougher golf course we’re going to see this week, which will definitely have players thinking their way around a course they haven’t seen in a long time.

There’s a lot of water out here. I think we’ve all seen the iconic video of Rory throwing his club in the water on the 8th hole from 2015. We’re bound to see some more chaos this week as well on the 2nd longest non-major golf course on the PGA Tour.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Being able to carry the ball 310 helps a lot here, whereas accuracy doesn’t have as much of a premium. We’ve got a combination of SG:OTT per round vs. field + Carry Distance as 2 key metrics in our BTN model this week, with 50% of the weighting.

• APP: You’re going to see a lot more longer approach shots this week, with fewer wedge shots. We didn’t complicate things too much this week and have a combination of SG:APP + Ball Speed as 2 other key metrics in our BTN model this week, with 40% of the weighting

• ATG: It is bunkers galore out here, with very few fairway and rough chipping. We decided to incorporate a simple 5% weight on SG:ARG in our BTN model this week

• Putting: Your 4-10 footers and lag putting are the focus. Mid-range putting not a huge differentiator this week, so we decided to do another simple 5% weight on SG:Putting in our BTN model this week

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Cameron Young. This might be the first time we’ve seen Scottie outside the top 5 of a model in a year? Not that Scottie isn’t a long hitter, and to be fair, he’s still 9.7/10 BTN Score. But as you can imagine, if we’re putting heavy focus on Carry Distance + Ball Speed… the bombers are gonna be towards the top

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Cameron Young as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (6-5-2) 🤼‍♂️ 

Sam Burns (-110) ✅ over Hideki Matsuyama (-120) on DraftKings

We’re back after a much-needed break, and this week we head to Doral and the Blue Monster, which is also back after an even longer break. This course hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since 2016 after being a regular stop for years, so there’s a little bit of mystery baked in this week. Add in a no-cut format, and this matchup has all the makings of a four-day stress test with palm trees and water hazards.

There are plenty of tough matchups on the board, but we’re riding with Sam Burns to take down the favorite in Hideki Matsuyama.

Both players have been very consistent lately, and both come in with solid recent form, but Burns has been just a little sharper. He’s posted four straight top-25 finishes, including a strong T7 at the Masters and a T16 at the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago. Hideki has been steady as well, but the edge for us shows up in the numbers.

Burns checks in 18th in our BTN Model this week, while Hideki sits 36th. Burns also gets the nod in the BTN Matchup Tool, and the biggest difference could come on the greens. We’re on Bermuda this week, and they don’t call him “Bermuda Burns” for nothing. He ranks 1st in this field in putting on Bermuda, and if the flatstick heats up, that may be the dagger that slays Hideki, the Blue Monster, and cashes us another matchup winner.

Sam Burns vs Hideki Matsuyama in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA tour takes on the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town this week.

We don’t have much time to decompress from an incredible Masters tournament as the PGA Tour rolls on with its next signature event: the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Same story as last year, Rory is heading home with another green jacket and is once again not in the field this week. The rest of the top players on Tour are locked and loaded for another $20M purse. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Harbour Town Golf Links is a ball striker’s paradise. It has tight corridors and small greens, and complete control of your ball is a must. We might get some rain on Sunday, but besides that we should see a relatively firm course out there.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: The course features tight landing zones, and distance isn’t a big factor here. Accuracy is rewarded in our BTN Model this week with Distance from Edge of the Fairway factored in. For those that like to get creative with your modeling, right misses are preferred out here more often than not.

• APP: Harbour Town will have players hitting many approach shots between 140-200 yards, so we gave this approach bucket a little extra weight this week. The par 3’s aren’t very long, and the main key shots from longer range will be 2nd shots on the par 5’s. The number of short approaches is pretty low as well. Focus on mid-range iron players to outperform

• ATG: The Bermuda grass is showing through here as the weather warmed up. That will introduce some more grain around the greens, but nothing overly difficult. Players will mostly be hitting fairway chips and can even take putter for many of them.

• Putting: The course has small greens, which makes lag putting almost non-existent this week. Look for mid-range putts to carry the weight and be the difference maker for players outperforming. We’ve got putts from 8-15’ filtered to overseed in our BTN Model this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Cameron Young. Tied with the always modeling high Scottie Scheffler, both coming close to a green jacket this week. Wouldn’t be surprising to see one of them get it done this week

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Cameron Young & Scottie Scheffler as the favorites.

Matchup of the Week (6-5-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Ryo Hisatsune (-110) ✅ over J.T. Poston (-120) on DraftKings

The matchup of the week features two players who are neck and neck in the BTN Custom Model, checking in 19th and 21st overall. So yes, this one is tight. But when it comes down to recent form and steadier play, we’re going to side with Ryo Hisatsune over J.T. Poston this week at Harbour Town.

The biggest case for Poston is the course history. He’s played some solid golf at Harbour Town over the years, and this is absolutely a place where experience and comfort matter. That said, Hisatsune handled himself just fine here in his first trip last season, finishing T18, so it’s not like he showed up, got confused by all the trees, and missed the ferry back home.

The BTN Matchup Tool likes Ryo too, and that helps seal it. Over the last 24 rounds, he holds the edge in several key categories, including Strokes Gained: Total, Off the Tee, and Approach. He’s also been the more consistent tee-to-green player, which is usually a pretty good recipe at Harbour Town, where precision matters a whole lot more than just bombing driver all over creation.

It should be a sweat, but give us Ryo and let’s go cash a ticket in a plaid jacket.

Ryo Hisatsune vs J.T. Poston in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X for all of his free BTN plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The best players in the world take on the 2026 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club

Hello friends… and welcome to Tuesday at the Masters. The Masters has finally arrived, bringing the golf world to the cathedral of golf: Augusta National Golf Club. We’ve come a long way as a platform since this time last year, and we’re especially excited to help you make some winning bets in our first major of the year. Let’s dive into the numbers for the Masters with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The two most important differentiators at Augusta National are Apex Height and 175-250 yard approach shots. We are going to see some firm conditions this week, which re-emphasizes Apex Height importance. But really, this course comes down to knowing not just where to put it, but how to get there. It’s no secret that experience matters at Augusta… so we’ve factored ANGC history as a notable weight in our model this week.

Key Stats

• Apex Height: To navigate these treacherous (and firm!) greens, and to access tricky hole locations across all four rounds, a steep landing angle is critical to success at Augusta

  • Who does this favor? First timer (as a pro) Aldrich Potgieter leads the field with the highest Apex coming into this week, followed not too far behind by notables like Bryson, Keegan, Ludvig, Knapp, and Griffin

• 175-250 yard Approach Shots: Players will see a good number of long approach shots this week. I think we all remember a certain approach shot from Rory on 15 last year 👀

  • Who does this favor? Leading the way we’ve got Si Woo Kim and Rory followed by Berger and Morikawa. We’ve got some other notable past champions in Adam Scott and Hideki who likely need more help with the putter to put themselves in contention this week.

• SG: Total @ ANGC: I said it above, but this course really is one of those where you need to experience the failure yourself to understand how to truly navigate this course successfully for 4 days. We haven’t seen a first-time winner in a LONG time, and we’re expecting that tradition to remain this week.

  • Who does this favor? Ludvig comes in first here, not shocking with a 2nd and 7th place finish here in his first 2 Masters. Rounding out the top 5 we’ve got Scottie, Patrick Reed, Rory and Morikawa. You could honestly make an argument for anyone in the top 10 of this category to be wearing the coveted green jacket at the end of the week

The BTN Masters Model

Let’s take a look at each strokes gained category as we dive into the BTN Masters 2026 model:

• OTT: Augusta is a driver heavy golf course with wide fairways - but you cannot miss big. Left misses are particularly penalizing at Augusta for those that like niche stats. Length is definitely helpful to hit the right spots and take advantage of the contours of the course. We’ve got SG:OTT paired with Distance from Edge of Fairway combined for 15% in this weeks model

• APP: As discussed earlier, the most important considerations at ANGC are apex height and approaches from 175-250. Also worth noting, because of the par 5’s being lengthened in recent years, wedges have become a factor again. The green jacket is won with great iron play which is why these approach categories are so heavily weighted in our model this week at a whopping 80%

• ATG: Fairway chipping is a key ATG stat at Augusta as there’s not a ton of rough (second cut!) to speak to on the course. We’ve weighted standard SG:ARG at 5% this week.

• Putting: While putting is always important, the emphasis on putting at ANGC is slightly overplayed. Winners will make a few 15-25 footers, but lag putting doesn’t necessarily correlate well to success here. Players that have a lot of lag putts aren’t hitting the ball well enough to win. Those 6-10 foot par saves will be crucial to keep momentum. We’re weighting standard SG:Putting at 15% this week

• SG ANGC: We weighted our entire model at 150/100%, with 35% of that being specifically the L12 rounds at Augusta. We’ve discussed this enough, it’s very important.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. I think we’ve all gotten used to this song and dance now… Scottie will be the betting and modeling favorite until we see a real drop in performance (that we aren’t expecting anytime soon). This could be the week we see one of those players who has come so close in the past but hasn’t been able to break through to that green jacket though. Keep an eye out for the guys slightly behind Scottie on the model leaderboard with decent course history and strong recent form.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (6-5-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Keep an eye out for the Tour Junkies Matchup of the week on their X page later today as matchups are released.

Breaking Down the Top of the Odds Board

Let’s take a look at the top 5 guys on the odds board from Bet The Number’s perspective

1. Scottie Scheffler (+490): First in the field in odds, second in the field in SG ANGC, but besides that he doesn’t necessarily seem to be in the same form he was coming into 2022 and 2024 winning the Green Jacket. It’s always possible with Scottie, but at +490 there is likely more value on the board there.

2. John Rahm (+910): Rahm has played incredibly well in his time at LIV, with only 1 event finishing outside the top 10. He’s always capable, he’s a Champion with experience. We don’t keep LIV data on BTN, so we can’t give you SG deep dives, but don’t be shocked if he is on that first page of the leaderboard around 3pm on Sunday.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+1075): Similar story as Rahm from the LIV data perspective, but without the green jacket. He’s 17th in the field in SG ANGC, and that could be higher if he wasn’t consistently fumbling Amen Corner. He absolutely fits the mold of a player who’s experienced failure and is ready to break through for his first green jacket.

4. Rory McIlroy (+1175): There’s only been 3 times where a player has won back to back Masters. He’s #2 in the field in that SG:APP 175-250, #4 in the field in that SG: ANGC… but a top 10 no win sounds much more likely than the Chairman putting the Green Jacket on Rory this week.

5. Ludvig Aberg (+1700): The Swedish robot is #1 in SG:ANGC after a second and 7th place finish in his first 2 Masters. He’s 6th in Apex height in the field, and frankly he’s been playing great lately. He’s ranked 5th in our model this week and the only question we’ve got is whether he can close out that second nine on Sunday. Nobody knock that power bar out of his hand and he has a good chance of sealing the deal this year for his first Major.

Weather ☀️

A brief course condition summary for past tournament comparisons:

• 2019: relatively soft overall

• 2020: Throwaway year (Fall tournament)

• 2021: Firm at first, then soft conditions over the weekend

• 2022: Very firm

• 2023: Standard conditions, then a big weather delay leading to soft conditions

• 2024: Barely some rain early on, then very firm

• 2025: Started out messy and rainy early in the week but during the tournament ended up being mostly dry

The forecast leading into this week is Dry, Firm and Fast. The main umbrellas you’ll be seeing are on the elusive gnomes they’re selling in the merch shop. Keep an eye on those high apex players, cause as of right now we’re gonna need to see some exceptional approach shots this week. I’m thinking it will play more like the first half of 2021 and then 2022 this year

The Masters in Bet The Number 📊

BTN is locked and loaded with stroke level data from every Masters since 2019 (we don’t like to include 2020 since it was kind of a “throwaway” year, sorry DJ). Here’s a breakdown of how you can best use Masters data when preparing for this week:

Masters Research:

• Course Page: We always recommend starting at the Course page when preparing for an event, and the Masters is no exception. Here you can see how top finishers outperform the field at ANGC, and see the demands of the course across each SG category

• Custom Model: Modeling with Masters data is a smart move, as we highlighted in our BTN Model this week

• Player Page: The Event History feature on the player page has both a Majors only toggle and a search function to filter exclusively on the Masters. The majors are a whole different ballgame, and past success is a great indicator of future success. Dive into each player’s performance across all SG categories as well to see how their form breaks down compared to the demands of Augusta.

• Round Props: A prop bettor’s paradise! The Round & Hole props tab have ever hole at Augusta’s birdie, par and bogey rate + a number of other prop metrics that are offered at the books nowadays. Use these pages to see how every player in the field has performed on each hole in the past.

Live Tracking:

• Hole Hangout: We released this functionality beginning at the Waste Management in February, and we’re excited to keep it rolling this week. Just like you’re able to watch the Masters feeds on Holes 4-6, Amen Corner and Holes 15-16, we’re providing you in depth stats for how those holes have been played in the past + the ability to track real time stats on every hole live throughout the tournament

• Event Center: Once those players tee off Thursday morning, you can also tune into the live Event Center to see real-time stats and analysis for the entire field. Live SG numbers, prop tracking and more.

The BTN Round Props Page: Focused on Birdies or Better

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to his X account for all of his BTN free plays!

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than a major. Enjoy this week and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA Tour takes on the Valero Texas Open this week at TPC San Antonio

April Fools! Had some Beehiv content saving issues on that last one, what a perfect day for that mistake 😂

Hello golf bettors! We have officially reached the final event before the Masters is upon us. Coming off an inspirational win from Gary Woodland in Houston, The Valero Texas Open features a competitive field as we’ve got some guys trying to work on their form heading into Augusta while others are trying to earn their spot in the field next week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC San Antonio plays as a par 72 with four par 5’s and four par 3’s. The course plays on the longer side, but our boots on the ground this week are telling us that they’ve never seen this little rough on this course before. Normally scoring is relatively difficult as players average 0.25 less birdies per round vs. Tour average, 0.2 more bogeys per round, and Fairway and GIR rates 8% and 6% lower than average respectively. With less rough, we’ll see if it plays any easier this week

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Have to group it tight out here, you cannot spray it but you don’t have to be deadly accurate. Length helps but isn’t always essential here. With little to no rough this week, The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 10% weight this week, and an additional 10% weight on Distance from Edge of Fairway

• APP: Approach is harder than average this week, with lots of mid to long range shots expected. Wedges for par 5’s and a few short par 4’s. The wedge shots will separate players as they have to be controlled with the wind forecasted this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week along with SG:APP from 75-125 yards at an additional 15% weight.

• ATG: There is not a lot of correlation to success here with Around the Green shots, so this stat is weighted less heavily in the BTN Model. One thing to note is that greenside bunkers play very difficult here as they are deep and well off the green. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ARG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: Overseeded greens make for smooth putting surfaces here. Lag putting and shorter putts are key this week, we’ll see plenty of 6-10 foot par attempts. The BTN Model includes SG:Putting on Overseeded greens at a 15% weight along with Bogey Avoidance at an additional 15%.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Russell Henley. He’s actually tied with Tommy Fleetwood and Si Woo Kim at a perfect BTN Score of 10/10, and are closely followed by 4 more at 9.9/10… so let’s hope for an exciting finish in San Antonio before we head down Magnolia Lane next week!

This week’s BTN Model Top 10, with Russell Henley as the favorite

Matchup of the Week (6-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jordan Spieth (+100) ✅ over Ludvig Aberg (-132) on DraftKings

Sigh. It’s a shame Ben Griffin isn’t in the field this week, because after a three-week run of slapping him around in Matchup Play, we were just starting to have some fun. But with Griffin off the board, we’ll call off the dogs and take on a much tougher test this week by backing Jordan Spieth as an even-money underdog over Ludvig Aberg.

Listen, we all know Spieth can be maddening. At times he looks like a wizard, and at other times he looks like a man trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube during an earthquake. But the results have actually been pretty steady this year. In seven starts on Tour, Spieth has posted four top 25s and three top 15s. A lot of that has been driven by strong iron play and ball striking, especially over his last three starts. He also checks in 10th in the custom BTN Model this week.

Aberg, on the other hand, has been a little trickier to pin down. The ceiling is obviously sky high, and we saw that at The Players for three days, right up until Sunday happened. To his credit, he’s still been very good lately with back-to-back top 5 finishes coming into this week. But despite the recent form, Aberg ranks just 38th in the BTN Model.

So we’ll trust the Matchup Tool once again, tip the cap to the Texas kid, and mosey on over to the payout window with Jordan Spieth at plus money.

Jordan Spieth vs. Ludvig Aberg in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

The PGA tour takes on the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio this week.

Hello golf bettors! The Valero Texas Open has arrived, or as we like to call it… the final tournament before the Masters. Coming off an inspirational win from Gary Woodland in Houston, we’ve got 8 of the top 20 players in the world

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

As a difficult par 70 with only two par 5s and tough par 3s, Colonial is going to play pretty tough this week. The course is already pretty firm and will continue to firm up during play, and the weather forecast is calling for windy conditions. Colonial has small greens to begin with, and with the forecasted wind, we’ll likely see low GIR counts which puts scrambling at a premium. We expect 8-10 under to be a contending score, and 12-14 likely wins the tournament.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With narrow fairways, plenty of trees, and lots of doglegs, accuracy comes at a premium over distance at Colonial. The course is only a 3.5/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale and has a strong rough penalty. We expect most of the scoring to come around the greens though, and just have standard SG:OTT in the BTN Model.

• APP: The large majority of approach shots at Colonial come from the 125-200 yard bucket which is the featured distance range in this week’s BTN Model. As mentioned earlier, the course has a strong rough penalty and features small greens which make approach play difficult.

• ATG: Chipping will separate top performers this weekend. With a low GIR rate and plenty of tough second shots for those missing fairways, getting up and down will be essential to saving pars. In the BTN Model, SG:ATG is the highest weighted of any event in weeks, and we’ve also added Scrambling as a key stat to the model.

• Putting: Colonial might have the purest bent grass greens on Tour. Players that putt well on bent will find themselves contending during this tournament, and the BTN Model has SG:Putt filtered to bent grass courses.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Anyone surprised? Tough to bet against world no. 1, in peak form, AND in his own backyard.

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (4-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Ryan Gerard (-105) ✅ over Ben Griffin (-120) on DraftKings

This matchup features two players in solid form, both striking their irons well in recent starts—but we’re locking in Ryan Gerard at near even money thanks to a few key stats. Over the last 12 rounds, Gerard ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green while Griffin has been strictly average at 77th in the field. While Griffin has strong SG:Putt numbers on bent greens, Gerard actually has slightly better putting numbers overall in recent history and has been putting well. With the BTN Model heavily weighting short game this week, we like Gerard’s performance in these key stats to carry us to the cash-out window.

Ryan Gerard vs Ben Griffin in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Around the Green card on the Player page. When courses like Colonial call for elite around the green play, we suggest referencing this card for the players you’re looking to bet. You can see summary stats down the left side including overall SG: ARG, sand saves, and scrambling, and on the right side are detailed strokes gained numbers broken down by distance and lie.

We’re looking at Scottie Scheffler’s card below. He’s got great ARG numbers including positive SG: ARG, sand saves 10% higher than Tour average, and scrambling 15% higher than Tour average. He’s gaining strokes from almost every distance and lie combination except short bunker shots and long rough shots. My advice - don’t bet on Scottie bogeys.

Scottie Scheffler’s Around the Green stats on his Player page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Charles Schwab Challenge picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Hello golf bettors! The Texas Children’s Houston Open has arrived - the first of two events in a quick Texas swing leading up to the Masters. Only three players in the OWGR top 20 are set to tee it up this weekend (Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, and Harris English), but there’s still plenty of competition with a packed list of names ranking from 30 and beyond. Let’s dive into the numbers for the Houston Open with Bet The Number.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

One note for course research: this event was played in November prior to 2024. The course plays quite differently in March, so we’d recommend sticking to 2024 and 2025 data.

Memorial Park Golf Course is a relatively long par 70 coming in at 7,475 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we don’t see the course stray from Tour average on too many stats except a lower fairway hit rate, a higher approach proximity, and slightly more difficult close-range putting. The first two make sense given two key design elements of the course: essentially nonexistent rough, and large green complexes.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Accuracy is not much of a factor off the tee given there’s essentially no rough to note and a very low missed fairway penalty. Bombs away. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and an additional 15% weight on ball speed to reward those that can shorten their second shots.

• APP: Approach shots tend to take on the mid-to-longer variety here given the length of the course. The key distance bucket we’re looking at is 150-200 yard approach shots. As mentioned, the rough is not a factor and not worth modeling this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 150-200 yds in the fairway and tee box.

• ATG: Memorial Park has plenty of fairway collection areas where players who miss the green will be chipping from. There are a few greenside bunkers which are best to avoid, but they’re not plentiful. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG from the fairway at a 20% weight this week.

• Putting: With large overseed greens and lower prox numbers, lag putting becomes a factor, as do mid-range birdie putts. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on overseed greens at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Nicolai Hojgaard. With no rough penalty to note, it’s no surprise the bomber has surfaced in the BTN Model. Some other interesting names round out the top 5: Marco Penge, Sudarshan Yellamaraju, David Ford, and Jesper Svensson. Should be a fun week.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (5-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Nicolai Hojgaard (-116) over Ben Griffin (-112) on DraftKings

Ho hum, just another winner last week with Spieth over Ben Griffin. So yes, we’re going back to the well for a third straight time and siding with the No. 1 player in the BTN Model, Nicolai Hojgaard, to lasso Griffin at Memorial Park this week.

At some point, “third time’s a charm” stops being a saying and just becomes a betting strategy. Griffin has now missed three straight cuts, and the problems keep showing up in the same places. He’s losing strokes off the tee and on approach, which is a brutal combo anywhere, but especially at Memorial Park where the driver can be a real weapon.

And that brings us to Nicolai. He absolutely mashes it. Hojgaard ranks 4th in this field in Ball Speed, so the firepower off the tee is very real. He’s also 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a pretty handy combo when you’re trying to separate from a guy who’s currently fighting it in all the wrong areas. The form is there, too, with two top 10s and a couple more top 30s in his last five starts.

We hate to keep picking on Ben Griffin and those sick shades, but we like cashing tickets a whole lot more. This week, we’re tipping the cap to Nicolai Hojgaard.

Nicolai Hojgaard vs Ben Griffin in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Hello golf bettors! We’re still coming down from the high of THE PLAYERS and the 🥜 on Cam Young with his tee shots on 17 and 18. What a win and what an exciting Sunday at THE PLAYERS (Sorry Ludvig backers 😅 ).

This week we look toward the Valspar Championship as the 2026 Florida swing comes to a close. Fortunately we have a stronger field than recent years for this event and plenty of opportunity to keep taking money from the books. Let’s dive into it.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a tree-lined 7,352 yard par 71 with five par 3s, and features a tough closing stretch dubbed the Snake Pit. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see quite a bit of red here with materially low fairway hit rate and GIR %, tougher scoring to par with both less birdies and more bogeys than average, and difficult par 4 and par 5 scoring. The Copperhead Course does not play materially easier than Tour average in any metric we are tracking.

As for conditions, the rough is a bit shorter than usual but thicker and more lush which will counteract any potential relief. The weather looks pristine for this weekend which means we will likely see scoring in-line or slightly easier than average here.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: The Copperhead Course puts a premium on accuracy. There are several less than driver holes as players are typically only hitting the big stick 10 times per round, and getting out of position means potential tree trouble. Bombers will have an advantage on par 5s which aren’t reachable for all players, but the course only ranks a 4.8 on the bomber’s paradise scale which means they don’t have much advantage elsewhere. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and an additional 10% weight on Distance from Edge of Fairway to reward accuracy.

• APP: The key approach distance range is 125-200 yards. With lower than average GIR rates, hitting greens is essential to staying in contention. Also worth noting - hitting out of the rough can be a bit of a potluck depending on the lie and line. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 125-200 yds in the fairway and tee box, and a 5% bump on Apex Height to better hold greens.

• ATG: With low GIR rates, there will be plenty of rough and bunker chipping. Short game is a factor worth including in models this week. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The course offers some tough lag putts which makes the 6-10 foot range important both for converting birdies and saving pars when out of position on approach. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT at a 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Austin Smotherman. Austin has been a darling of the betting community early this year with great recent form including a T2 at the Cognizant and a T13 last week at THE PLAYERS. Worth noting, however - Austin’s wife is on baby watch. Buyer beware!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (4-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jordan Spieth (-110) over Ben Griffin (-120) on DraftKings

We cashed easily at The Players last week with Adam Scott over Ben Griffin, so naturally, we’re going right back to the well and fading Mr. Griffin again. This time, it’s Jordan Spieth as the slight dog.

Yes, Spieth is still under the microscope every week because he hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but he’s been playing solid golf. He’s posted four straight top-30 finishes and checks in 33rd in the BTN proprietary model this week. That’s more than good enough in this matchup.

Griffin, meanwhile, sits just behind him at 35th in the model, but the recent form is much shakier than that suggests. He’s missed two straight cuts and has lost strokes tee to green, off the tee, and on approach over his last four starts. As a website built to help you make smarter bets, we can safely say that is not the trend we’re looking to back.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook always has a little chaos in it, and the Snake Pit has wrecked plenty of Sundays. But if this thing gets weird, give us Spieth all day. He may not make it boring, but boring is overrated when the ticket cashes.

Jordan Spieth vs Ben Griffin in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Hello golf bettors! Welcome to PLAYERS week. Today was a huge day for the PGA Tour as Brian Rolapp announced a series of improvements including more signature events, a return to full-size fields, promotion and relegation, and the potential for matchplay in the playoffs. Seems the PGA Tour is finally listening to its fans which we love to see. However, while we’re excited about these changes, we’re here to talk about THE PLAYERS Championship.

The Hole Hangout is Locked and Loaded ⛳️ 

We were so excited for THE PLAYERS and all the hole prop edges we've been cashing in on the last few weeks, that we decided to analyze pin positions for every. single. hole. at TPC Sawgrass. Does the PGA Tour provide us automated pin data? Sure doesn't. Did we spend hours combing through the PGA Tour Communications X account manually logging past pin sheets? Sure did.

The Hole Hangout includes:

• Historical stats to every single pin 📊

• Live prop counters on every hole 🧮

• Upcoming group analysis by hole including live stats and recent form 👥

We’ve built the Hole Hangout as your one-stop-shop to take advantage of the massive edges available on betting Hole Props. Sign up for a free 7-day trial today to check out the Hole Hangout and all our other functionality including live stat tracking, live scoring conditions, custom modeling, round prop analysis, matchup analysis, and much, much more.

Also, if you want to join the fun with us, tag along in the btn-betting-chat channel of the Tour Junkies Discord this weekend where we’ve been raking it in the last couple weeks with the Hole Hangout. Hope to see you there.

Hole 17 ready to go in the Hole Hangout

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

TPC Sawgrass is a 7,352 yard par 72 that is much more demanding of accuracy and shot-shaping than power and distance. Let’s dissect two of the main conditions storylines we’re seeing heading into this year’s event based on our boots-on-the-ground reporting.

• Firmness: The course is definitely playing firmer than normal. Approach shots are bouncing and the fairways are quick. If there’s little to no rainfall, holding greens and preventing fairway runout will be quite challenging. Rain is the big wild card here.

  • Stat this favors: Apex Height. Hit the ball higher, land it softer. Simple as that. The top 5 Apex Height players in the field: Aldrich Potgieter, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin.

• Rough Length: The rough at TPC Sawgrass is already amongst the most penal on Tour, and it’s even longer this year. If you’re in the rough, you’re basically just hacking at the ball.

  • Stat this favors: OTT accuracy. We’re including Distance from Edge of Fairway in our model in lieu of Accuracy to reward those that can control their inevitable misses. Either way, you’re going to want to play from the fairway as much as possible here. Modeling out-of-the-rough stats doesn’t do much since you will rarely get a good shot out of it. The top 5 Dist from Edge of Fwy players in the field: Takumi Kanaya, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Joel Dahmen, Ryan Gerard.

Let’s continue diving into key stats and demands of the course as we dive into this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: TPC Sawgrass is a true accuracy > distance course with how severe the rough penalty is. It’s very easy to play your way out of position here and demands that players shape the ball both directions off the tee. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight this week, and Distance from Edge of Fairway at an additional 10% for an accuracy bump.

• APP: TPC Sawgrass is heavy on approach shots under 200 yards with ~12 per round on average. Playing from the fairway is a must as the rough will only provide a chance to hack at the ball. Soft landings will help on these firm greens as well. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 125-200 yds in the fairway and tee box, and an additional 5% boost on Apex Height.

• ATG: Lie plays a big factor in short game here. Out of the rough, you won’t be able to spin the ball and will have a tough time keeping it close. With plenty of greenside bunkers, good bunker players will excel. Chipping out of the fairway is pretty standard business. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: There is almost no overseed left on the greens, so they’re playing like true Bermuda. Lag putting will play a factor this week as prox numbers drop due to the firmness of the greens. The 8-15’ range will play a key role as always in converting birdie looks and saving par when players get out of position. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT on Bermuda at a 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Si Woo Kim. The Korean prince has overtaken world no. 1 in our model this week with his elite driving and approach play. Plenty of big names topping the model this week alongside Si Woo including Scottie, Cam Young, a red-hot Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, and Russell Henley. A few less-notable names that are popping include Austin Smotherman with some great recent form and Aaron Rai who’s accurate off the tee and a great iron player. We’ll see who reigns champ come Sunday evening.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-4-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Adam Scott (-118) ✅ over Ben Griffin (-112) on DraftKings

We’re not wasting much time looking in the rearview mirror from last week. It’s The Players, one of the biggest events on the board, and we’re getting right back to work at TPC Sawgrass.

At first glance, this looks like a strong matchup between two pretty steady players. But once you peel back the layers a bit, Adam Scott starts to separate himself as the clear side for us in this spot. Ben Griffin had a fantastic 2025 season and deserves plenty of credit for that, but his recent form has cooled off. Over his last four tournaments and 16 rounds, he’s been pretty average. Meanwhile, Adam Scott has quietly put together a really solid season, especially when the competition gets tougher. A T11 at Bay Hill and a T4 at The Genesis tell us plenty. When the field gets stronger, Scott tends to raise his level, and this certainly qualifies.

Then you get to a place like TPC Sawgrass, where experience matters and trouble is waiting on nearly every hole. That’s another edge for Scott. This course has a way of exposing any weakness in your game, and right now Scott looks far better equipped to handle the test. The stat profile backs it up too. Scott ranks 30th in this field off the tee and 18th on approach, which is exactly the kind of combo you want around Sawgrass. Griffin, on the other hand, ranks a rough 93rd off the tee and 58th on approach. That’s a dangerous recipe on a course that punishes loose driving and shaky irons in a hurry.
Sawgrass usually turns into a survival test, and that should play right into Scott’s hands.

Give us the steadier ball-striking, the proven veteran, and the guy more likely to keep his ball dry and our ticket alive.

Adam Scott vs Ben Griffin in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Hello golf bettors! The Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando. As a signature event, the best players on Tour are all teeing it up with a limited 72 player field. But before we dive into the numbers, we want to introduce a feature we’re really excited about: 2-balls and 3-balls in the Custom Model.

Introducing: Custom Model Matchups 👥 

If you love betting 2-balls and 3-balls, we’ve brought matchup analysis directly into the custom model for you. Once tee times are loaded both leading up to the event and subsequently in each round, we’ve added a toggle that lets you flip from the full Field view to a Groupings view. Now you can directly analyze 2-balls and 3-balls within the context of the BTN Model or your own personal Custom Model. You can toggle on recent form and course history as well to get a full picture of the matchup. Matchups are a big focus for us right now, and we’re stoked this one is now available for those of you that love a good 3-ball parlay like us.

Matchup Analysis in the Custom Model

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Coming in at a lengthy 7,466 yards as a par 72, Bay Hill is a notoriously difficult golf course with thick, penalizing rough and plenty of opportunities for bogey. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see a sea of red for Bay Hill, including materially lower greens in reg, a scoring average over par, over 3 bogeys per round, and more difficult par 4 and 5 scoring. Bay Hill does not play notably easier than Tour average in any metric we’re tracking.

As for conditions, the course is a bit soft right now from recent rain, which might offer the opportunity for someone to go low tomorrow morning. That said, with a perfect forecast ahead, we expect the course to firm up and offer its usual challenge into the weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Bay Hill is one of those courses that demands both accuracy and length off the tee with a bomber’s paradise score of 8.6 and a very high rough penalty. My advice - just hit it long and straight. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week.

• APP: Bay Hill has plenty of long approach shots with players averaging about 10 shots per game over 175 yards, including all four par 3s. The rough is long this year and will be penal as always. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yds in the fairway and tee box.

• ATG: Chipping will play a role this weekend as missed fairways often lead to layups. One design change worth noting is that collection areas have been added around some of the greens which will lead to less chip shots from the rough. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: There’s actually not much worth noting on the putting front for Bay Hill as most of the challenge of the course is getting to the green. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT at a 10% weight.

• Bogey Avoidance: As we’ve discussed, bogeys are easy to come by at Bay Hill. Because of this, we’ve added bogey avoidance at a 20% weight in our BTN Model this week to reward those that can get up and down and save pars.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The perennial favorite is back in action this week. We’ll see if he remembers how to play golf in an R1 tomorrow.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-3-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Shane Lowry (-112) ✅ over Min Woo Lee (-118) on DraftKings

The heater cooled off a bit last week as Haotong Li couldn’t get past Brooks Koepka, who turned in a strong weekend performance and took the matchup. That’s golf.

This week the Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational — one of the toughest tests on the schedule and a course that heavily rewards elite ball striking. Bay Hill is a second-shot golf course where approach play and distance control are critical.

That’s why the play this week is Shane Lowry over the Chef. Lowry grades 18th in the BTN Model this week, while Min Woo sits all the way down at 65th. Min Woo’s SG: APP numbers are nearly dead last in the field which is a major concern at Bay Hill. Lowry, on the other hand, excels in the key 175–225 yard approach range.

With Bay Hill demanding precise iron play and patience, Lowry’s ball-striking profile makes him the clear play in this matchup.

Shane Lowry vs Min Woo Lee in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number