Hello golf bettors! The Florida swing continues this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando. As a signature event, the best players on Tour are all teeing it up with a limited 72 player field. But before we dive into the numbers, we want to introduce a feature we’re really excited about: 2-balls and 3-balls in the Custom Model.

Introducing: Custom Model Matchups 👥 

If you love betting 2-balls and 3-balls, we’ve brought matchup analysis directly into the custom model for you. Once tee times are loaded both leading up to the event and subsequently in each round, we’ve added a toggle that lets you flip from the full Field view to a Groupings view. Now you can directly analyze 2-balls and 3-balls within the context of the BTN Model or your own personal Custom Model. You can toggle on recent form and course history as well to get a full picture of the matchup. Matchups are a big focus for us right now, and we’re stoked this one is now available for those of you that love a good 3-ball parlay like us.

Matchup Analysis in the Custom Model

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Coming in at a lengthy 7,466 yards as a par 72, Bay Hill is a notoriously difficult golf course with thick, penalizing rough and plenty of opportunities for bogey. Looking at the BTN Course Insights module, we see a sea of red for Bay Hill, including materially lower greens in reg, a scoring average over par, over 3 bogeys per round, and more difficult par 4 and 5 scoring. Bay Hill does not play notably easier than Tour average in any metric we’re tracking.

As for conditions, the course is a bit soft right now from recent rain, which might offer the opportunity for someone to go low tomorrow morning. That said, with a perfect forecast ahead, we expect the course to firm up and offer its usual challenge into the weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Bay Hill is one of those courses that demands both accuracy and length off the tee with a bomber’s paradise score of 8.6 and a very high rough penalty. My advice - just hit it long and straight. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week.

• APP: Bay Hill has plenty of long approach shots with players averaging about 10 shots per game over 175 yards, including all four par 3s. The rough is long this year and will be penal as always. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 30% weight this week, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 175-225 yds in the fairway and tee box.

• ATG: Chipping will play a role this weekend as missed fairways often lead to layups. One design change worth noting is that collection areas have been added around some of the greens which will lead to less chip shots from the rough. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: There’s actually not much worth noting on the putting front for Bay Hill as most of the challenge of the course is getting to the green. The BTN Model includes standard SG:PUTT at a 10% weight.

• Bogey Avoidance: As we’ve discussed, bogeys are easy to come by at Bay Hill. Because of this, we’ve added bogey avoidance at a 20% weight in our BTN Model this week to reward those that can get up and down and save pars.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The perennial favorite is back in action this week. We’ll see if he remembers how to play golf in an R1 tomorrow.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-3-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Shane Lowry (-112) ✅ over Min Woo Lee (-118) on DraftKings

The heater cooled off a bit last week as Haotong Li couldn’t get past Brooks Koepka, who turned in a strong weekend performance and took the matchup. That’s golf.

This week the Tour heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational — one of the toughest tests on the schedule and a course that heavily rewards elite ball striking. Bay Hill is a second-shot golf course where approach play and distance control are critical.

That’s why the play this week is Shane Lowry over the Chef. Lowry grades 18th in the BTN Model this week, while Min Woo sits all the way down at 65th. Min Woo’s SG: APP numbers are nearly dead last in the field which is a major concern at Bay Hill. Lowry, on the other hand, excels in the key 175–225 yard approach range.

With Bay Hill demanding precise iron play and patience, Lowry’s ball-striking profile makes him the clear play in this matchup.

Shane Lowry vs Min Woo Lee in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Hello golf bettors! We hope you were tailing some of our action at the BTN Hole Hangout last weekend because we were red hot with the hole props at Riviera. Hole props are far and away the best value the books are offering on golf betting right now, and we built the Hole Hangout to specifically target those lines. We’ll be back at it this weekend and hope you follow along on our X and the Tour Junkies Discord. If you’re not a BTN member yet, sign up for a free trial today and you’ll get full access to the Hole Hangout along with the rest of BTN for a full 7 days.

Onto the new week, the first leg of the PGA Tour’s Florida swing is here with the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. After two back-to-back signature events, and with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players ahead, most of the Tour’s top players are taking this week off leaving us a slightly weaker field. That said, there’s still plenty of opportunity to hit some bets and enjoy some water balls at the notorious Bear Trap.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

PGA National is a water-heavy par 71 coming in at 7,223 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see quite a bit of green with PGA National boasting a higher GIR rate, less bogeys per round, easier par 5 scoring, and easier putting than Tour average. The main challenge this course presents is the bountiful water hazards, especially throughout the Bear Trap which is holes 15-17 and presents a nice challenge for players coming down the stretch.

As for conditions, the rough is longer and healthier than the last few years which may increase the typically low rough penalty. The greens are a bit firmer too which could lower GIR rates and will likely keep us from a 59-watch again this year.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: PGA National is not a driver-heavy course as players are only pulling the big stick out 10 times per round on average. With an average fairway hit rate and low rough penalty (as long as you’re avoiding water), there’s not much to note on the OTT front. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 10% weight this week.

• APP: The course is heavy from 126-175 yards on approach with almost 8 shots per round in this range. With the greens being firm, they will be more difficult than usual to hold and will put a premium on strong approach play. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 35% weight this week.

• ATG: As we’ve mentioned, we expect the GIR rate to drop a bit this week with the firm greens, especially if the wind starts blowing. Chipping will be at a premium for players to get up and down from off the greens. The BTN Model includes SG: ATG on Bermuda at a 25% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are Bermuda at PGA National which is a change from the west coast courses we’ve been seeing so far. We’re putting a premium on 4-12’ putts this week both to convert birdies and save pars when scrambling. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ at a 10% weight.

• Par 3 Scoring: With the two par 3s on the front nine playing over 200 yards, and the two on the back being part of the Bear Trap, par 3 play can make or break a round at PGA National. Because of this, we’ve included Par 3 scoring in our model this week at a 20% weight to reward those that are able to navigate these tricky holes.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Max Homa. Homa just barely edges out the favorite Ryan Gerard to be #1 in the model with excellent approach and around the green play and great par 3 scoring. Is it time for Max to re-enter the winner’s circle?

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (3-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Haotong Li (-120) ✅ over Brooks Koepka (-110) on DraftKings

It might be safe to say we are on fire, just like BTN is right now, as we coasted to an easy victory last week with Jacob Bridgeman over Max Homa. Oh, and what else did Bridgeman do? He won the whole dang tournament. Extra credit, gold star, and if you sprinkled the outright, take a victory lap.

Now we turn our focus to the East Coast for the first event of the Florida Swing at the Cognizant Classic at PGA National. The field may not be loaded, but the goal stays the same. Keep stacking wins with the Matchup Play of the Week.

This week it is Haotong Li over Brooks Koepka. Yes, Koepka is a headline name and will have plenty of people clicking his side, but the form is still a little iffy in his third start back on Tour post LIV. Right now the consistency just is not there. Meanwhile, both the BTN Matchup Tool and our PGA National specific BTN Model lean strongly toward Li. He is simply bringing the steadier, more reliable profile for this course.

And at PGA National, steady is the whole point. One shaky stretch and you are feeding the Bear Trap, and those three holes do not care what your name is. Give us Li to keep it in play, survive the claws, and win this matchup clean.

Haotong Li vs Brooks Koepka in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

If you’re looking for me, I’ll be at the brand new BTN Hole Hangout all weekend looking to snipe some hole props. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The signature events keep rolling this week with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club. We missed this awesome course last year as the Genesis was moved to Torrey Pines due to damage from the LA wildfires, and we’re glad to be back at Riv. But first, a big feature announcement.

Introducing: The Hole Hangout ⛳️ 

We had so much fun with hole 16 at the Waste Management that we decided to make the hole tracker into a full-fledged feature - every hole, every course, every week. The Hole Hangout contains:

1. Live Stats:

   1. Live overall hole stats including total birdies, pars, bogeys, scoring, GIRs, and Fairways (par 4s and 5s) or Prox (par 3s)

   2. A live group tracker to see when each group is expected to play the hole, including live and historical stats for each player

2. Historical Stats:

   1. Hole averages for birdies, pars, bogeys, GIRs, and Fwys/Prox

   2. Historical hole results for every round played at the course in our database

3. Pin Placement Analysis (for signature holes only as of now): filters and analysis showing how different pins affect scoring and results. Hole 16 at the WMPO, hole 10 this week (the drivable par 4), #17 at Sawgrass, etc.

Hole props currently offer some of the largest edges available at major books like Draftkings. The Hole Hangout is here to let you capitalize on them.

Live stats and group tracking for every hole at the Hole Hangout

Historical hole analysis at the Hole Hangout (pin analysis for signature holes like Riv #10)

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Riviera Country Club is a relatively long par 71 coming in at 7,383 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see more red than green. Riviera plays materially harder in terms of fairway hit rate, greens in reg, approach proximity, putting from 5-15’, and 3-putt percentage beyond 25’. The two areas of relief we can spot are easier scrambling and better than average par 5 scoring.

Conditions will be a factor this week. The course is really soft right now from lots of rain, and tomorrow is looking cold, windy, and rainy which will make for difficult scoring conditions. The rest of the event looks to be much more mild and could play easier as greens stay receptive.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Especially with wet conditions where balls won’t be running out, length off the tee goes a long way with a bomber’s paradise score of 6.1/10 The rough penalty is not so bad, so distance is the premium to weight in your models this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight this week, plus an additional 20% weight on Carry Distance due to the wet conditions.

• APP: The 150-200 yard range is vital at Riviera. Wedges will be important as well to control spin, especially for shorter hitters that won’t be reaching the par 5s in two. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, plus an additional 15% weight on SG:APP from 100-150 yards from the fairway/tee.

• ATG: The rough is relatively short but might become unpredictable by the weekend. The soft greens will make it easier to control chips and get up and down, especially considering Riviera is already an easier-than-average scrambling course. With lower GIR rates here, short game is a factor to consider in models this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: Even with the weather, the greens at Riviera are still pretty quick. Lag putts will be a factor if players are missing the right sections of the greens, making the 4-12’ range important both for bogey avoidance and birdie conversion. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ on Poa at a 10% weight.

• Bogey Avoidance: It’s easy to get out of position at Riviera and missing in the wrong places will drastically increase bogey changes. Players that are able to manage the course well, get up and down, and avoid bogeys will be in great shape. The BTN Model includes Bogey Avoidance at a 15% weight this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Scottie is the favorite every week, so let’s shed some light on another guy in our top 10. The one that stands out to me is Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay has pretty strong course history at Riviera and comes in at #7 this week with some sneaky T15s at the AT&T and AmEx, though he did MC at the Farmers.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (2-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Jacob Bridgeman (-116) ✅ over Max Homa (-114) on DraftKings

We’ve evened up the record thanks to an easy win by Tommy Fleetwood in last week’s Matchup of the Week. Now let’s keep it rolling at the Genesis Invitational. We’re headed to Riviera Country Club, a classic track with a loaded signature-event field.

And speaking of staying hot, Jacob Bridgeman might not be a household name yet, but the guy has been on a heater. He’s opened the year with four top-20 finishes, and hasn’t done worse than T18 in that stretch. The profile checks out too: the putter has been strong, and the ball striking has held steady enough to keep him in the mix every week.

On the other side, Max Homa is a former champion here, but his recent form has been all over the place—especially off the tee and around the greens, two areas you can’t afford to be loose at Riviera. With the matchup tool firmly backing Bridgeman, we’ll lay the small number and look to keep this momentum going—because in Hollywood, you ride the hot hand until the credits roll.

Jacob Bridgeman vs Max Homa in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Picks 🎯 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The first signature event of the 2026 PGA Tour schedule has arrived with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Betting note: the first two days are played on two courses in Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill before moving to Pebble Beach exclusively for rounds three and four. In Bet The Number, our course page features Pebble exclusively while our Round Prop and Hole Prop pages have data available on both courses.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

A few quick notes on Spyglass Hill before we focus on Pebble. Spyglass is a 7,071 yard par 72 and more of a true ball-striker’s course than Pebble. You can’t spray it off the tee there and need to manage your game well. The course tends to play about half a shot harder than Pebble overall.

Pebble Beach on the other hand is a relatively short par 72 coming in 6,989 yards. Pebble offers a lot of birdie opportunities and is less punishing off the tee as long as you’re avoiding the ocean. As for stats that stick out at Pebble looking at the BTN Course Insights tool, we can see a few. On the “easier” side, Pebble has a higher fairway hit rate, lower scoring, more birdies per round, closer prox, and better 3-putt avoidance than the average Tour course. On the “harder” side, we just see putting from 5-15ft at a lower conversion rate.

A note on conditions this week since Pebble is largely at the mercy of the elements. We’ve seen some of the crazy wind for practice rounds, but the actual tournament days are looking more mild (with the exception of Sunday). The course will be playing pretty soft from a lot of rain and should be receptive. Sunday looks very rainy and windy as of now so it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecast as the weekend gets closer.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: With a very low rough penalty and being a relatively short course, Pebble is not very demanding off the tee. Players are only hitting driver 11 times on average. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, plus an additional 5% weight on Carry Distance due to the wet conditions.

• APP: Some call Pebble a barbell approach course since it’s heavier on long irons and short irons while not asking much from the middle of the bag. The greens are fairly small but we see stable GIR rates and good prox numbers here. The BTN Model includes SG:APP at a 20% weight from 100-150 yards from the fairway/tee, plus an additional 20% weight on SG:APP from 200-250 yards from the fairway/tee.

• ATG: Around the green won’t be too much of a factor until maybe Sunday if conditions get crazy. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: We’re looking at relatively small west coast Poa greens at Pebble. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on similar Poa courses at a 15% weight.

• Par 5s: The par 5s offer great opportunities for scores under par, so we’ve included Par 5 scoring at a 10% weight in our model this week.

• Bogey Avoidance: Last but not least, we have Bogey Avoidance at a 10% weight this week. This is our ode to Spyglass as it presents more bogey risk than Pebble which players will naturally want to avoid on their round at Spy.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Scottie demonstrated this past weekend that he can be ten shots off the lead after round 1 and still surge into contention on Sunday. Should be fun to watch the best players compete in the first signature event of the year this week.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (1-2-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Tommy Fleetwood (-122) ✅ over Cam Young (-108) on DraftKings

Every so often in sports wagering, and golf especially, you’ve got to have a very short-term memory and put things behind you quickly. Like, for instance, last week Cam Young had an 8-shot lead over Xander Schauffele in our matchup play of the week. Then they tied. And that really ticked us off.

So we should just let bygones be bygones and forget about it, right? Pfft. No way.
We’re taking all that anger and going the complete opposite direction this week, with Tommy Fleetwood to take down Cam Young at Pebble Beach.

Tommy Lad definitely turned a corner late last year, culminating in a breakthrough PGA TOUR win at the Tour Championship. He’s not off to the best start by his standards this season overseas, but we’re betting he gets things turned around on a course like Pebble Beach that’s suited for his game. The BTN Matchup Tool certainly agrees, too, favoring Fleetwood over Young in the majority of stat categories. Tommy Lad also ranks 6th in the BTN Custom Model this week, compared to Cam Young at 42nd.

There’s no cut, so it’s going to be a four-day sweat, but we’re banking on Tommy to have those locks flowing in the wind and to handle business against Cam this week at Pebble.

Tommy Fleetwood vs Cam Young in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale

The People’s Open has arrived! Before we get into our typical newsletter, we have to share what we’ve been cooking up to bet one of the best holes in all of golf in Hole 16 at the Stadium Course.

New BTN Page Fully Dedicated to Hole 16 ⛳️ 

We’ve built a fully dedicated page for Hole 16 that has all the data you’re going to need if you’re betting Hole 16 props. The books are offering tons of lines for the Coliseum Hole including total birdies and GIRs for the event and each round, hole scoring props, closest to the pin props, group scores and GIRs, and much more. We have detailed breakdowns of all historical prop results at the hole including filtering by pin zone. We’re also going to be adding to this page before the guys tee off tomorrow with grouping analysis, live stats, and more. Stay tuned!

One major takeaway - the pin matters quite a bit on hole 16 as those front pins are much more friendly than the back pins.

Brand new, fully dedicated Hole 16 page on Bet The Number

BTN Boots on the Ground at the WMPO

Our very own BTN Ryan is going to be at the WMPO for rounds 1-3 using BTN to fire on hole 16 bets directly from the grandstands. Follow along on our X page all weekend.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Alright, back to regularly scheduled programming. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 coming in at 7,261 yards. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, there aren’t many stat categories where this course varies far from average besides a low fairway rate and longer than average proximity. As for conditions this week, the course is going to play fast as usual, and the rough is a bit lighter than normal. We’re looking at a potentially windy morning tomorrow but otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Shaping up to be a great weekend at TPC Scottsdale.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: This is a driver heavy course with 13 driver holes and a relatively low rough penalty. Interestingly, though, the bomber’s paradise reading is pretty low here as the short hitters don’t find themselves losing too many strokes beyond average for their distance. OTT play will be a big factor though, and the BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at 30% weight this week.

• APP: Look for lots of mid-irons as players are hitting ~6 shots per round from 175-225 yards on approach. Guys with a higher apex height will have an advantage as they have an easier time holding the fast greens. The rough penalty is pretty minimal as well with the dormant Bermuda grass and not much of a factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, plus an additional 10% weight on SG:APP from 175 - 225 yards from the tee and fairway. We’ve also added Apex Height at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: With the firm greens, players will be looking to scramble a few times per round to save pars. The BTN Model includes standard SG: ATG at a 15% weight this week.

• Putting: We’re looking at fast Overseed greens here at TPC Scottsdale where guys will need to make some birdies to climb the leaderboard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-16’ on Overseed at a 15% weight.

• Par 5s: The three par 5s here are pretty gettable and present a good opportunity for birdies. We’ve included Par 5 Scoring as an additional 10% weight in our model this week.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Coming off a win at the AmEx last week, Scottie’s already in great form and a force to be reckoned with early in the season. We see you, golf X, where the w/o Scottie markets have been getting hammered this week.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (1-2-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Cam Young (+100) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (-134) on DraftKings

We’re back baby! It was an easy win for us last week with Sam Stevens over Will Zalatoris at the Farmers, so let’s keep this ship headed in the right direction and even up our record this week at the Waste Management Open.

We’ve got a heavyweight matchup with Cam Young as an even money underdog against Xander Schauffele, and we’ll gladly take the value here on Cam. These two are extremely close in the overall custom BTN model, and they both also have excellent course history. That leads us to the matchup tool where there’s a clear edge in most stat categories across the board for Cam Young.

There’s certainly potential for a bounce back week for Xander coming off a missed cut, but Cam has been incredibly consistent since his breakthrough win at the Wyndham, with four top 10 finishes in his last six starts leading into this week. Give me the guy trending the right way at plus money in a matchup this tight.

And when the volume cranks up and the vibes get weird at TPC Scottsdale, I want the pick that stays composed while everyone else is shotgunning transfusions on 16. We’re keeping this play clean, simple, and profitable, then wheeling Xander right out to the curb like it’s pickup day.

Cam Young vs Xander Schauffele in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

We’re stoked for one of the most fun events on the PGA Tour schedule. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines

The season is finally starting to heat up with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego. This event is played across both the South Course and the North Course at Torrey Pines over the first two rounds before transitioning to the South Course exclusively over the weekend. Only the South Course has ShotLink data, which means all stroke-level data on the Course page of BTN is for the South Course exclusively. However, we do have Round Prop and Hole Prop data for both courses available - both historical and live as play begins.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We will primarily discuss the South Course here since the players that make the weekend will be playing three rounds here. A quick note on the North Course though: it plays quite a bit easier than the South Course with a historical scoring average of 70.61 compared to the South Course’s 72.79. Keep this in mind when betting on round props!

As for the South Course, it’s one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour coming in at a whopping 7,765 yards for the par 72. Looking at the BTN Course Insights feature, we see a sea of red as this course plays materially harder than other Tour Courses in almost every metric we are tracking. The rough is a bit thinner than usual this year, but it is still long and will be penal like always. The one saving grace for this week is mild conditions which won’t be actively working against players like the howling wind from last year.

The South Course is a tough track with lots of red on our Course Insights feature.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Ball striking is the main storyline at Torrey Pines as Off the Tee and Approach play will dictate a lot of the outcome here. For OTT, the Course Breakdown page initially shows a Bomber’s Paradise of 4.4, but this is dragged down significantly by last year’s windy tournament. Filtering from 2021 - 2024, the Bomber’s Paradise reads a 6.5 which is much more appropriate as carry distance will help quite a bit with the length of this course. Accuracy helps too though as the rough is penal. The BTN Model includes Carry Distance at 15% weight this week, and SG: Ball Striking at an additional 25%.

• APP: Look for lots of long irons as players are hitting ~12 shots per round over 175 yards on approach. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP from 175 - 275 yards at a 10% weight which adds onto the 25% SG: Ball Striking mentioned previously.

• ATG: It is tough to scramble at Torrey Pines, and this is a differentiator given lower than average GIR rates. The BTN Model includes Scrambling at a 20% weight this week.

• Putting: The Poa greens should firm up by the weekend and roll smoother than the past. We’re much more focused on bogey avoidance this week than making birdies. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 4-12’ on Poa at a 5% weight, Bogey Avoidance at a 15% weight, and 3-putt avoidance at an additional 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Chris Gotterup. Lots of interesting names at the top of the BTN Model though as plenty of big names are competing this week (welcome back Brooks).

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Chris Gotterup as the favorite.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-2-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Sam Stevens (-114) ✅ over Will Zalatoris (-116) on DraftKings

The lords of gambling have not been kind to us to start the year, so maybe it’s time to switch up the approach and roll with the slight underdog instead of chasing the favorite.
Sam Stevens has once again been playing some excellent golf to open the West Coast swing. He eased into the season with a T31 at the Sony Open, then backed it up with a T6 last week at The American Express. Will Zalatoris also had a solid showing at The American Express with a T18 in his first PGA TOUR start after missing most of last year due to injury, which is genuinely encouraging.

But Torrey Pines is a different animal. It’s a much tougher test, and right now I’m going to trust the steadier, more reliable game that Stevens is bringing to the table. Both guys have some decent history here, but I need to see a little more from Willy Z, especially with the putter, before I’m willing to buy in on Poa Annua greens that can turn even confident strokes into a crime scene. The BTN Matchup tool leans Stevens, and so does the overall model.

So we’re trusting the process this week. And if the gambling gods are listening, we’re not asking for much, just one little W to get this season off the mat.

Sam Stevens vs Will Zalatoris in the BTN Matchup tool

New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

GROUPINGS ARE HERE!! We have now pulled groupings into BTN and integrated them directly into several key modules. If you love betting 2-balls and 3-balls, your life just got way easier.

• Matchups Page: Groupings in the Matchups page are now live - no longer will you have to manually enter every 2-ball and 3-ball to find your edge. Compare each grouping on a historical and live basis to line up your 2- and 3-ball picks.

• Custom Model: Groupings are now available on the Custom Model as well, plus a new AM/PM filter for those that like to eye up wave split advantages. Compare each grouping easily by sorting on the TT/Grp column, and filter by wave split when conditions call for it using the new AM/PM filter.

• Tournament Page: Upcoming and live tournaments will now feature tee times and groupings as well. Track your 2-balls and 3-balls in real time by sorting on the TT/Grp column.

Groupings are now available on the Matchups page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The American Express in La Quinta, California

The second event of the 2026 PGA Tour calendar brings us the American Express tournament in La Quinta, California. This event is played on three courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Players will rotate between these courses for the first 3 rounds before a 54-hole cut and a final round back at the Stadium Course. Only the Stadium Course has ShotLink data, so all course data and shot-level stats on BTN - both historical and live - will be for the Pete Dye Stadium Course only.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

This is a bit of a tricky tournament to handicap for a few reasons, first and foremost being the players spread across 3 courses through the first 3 rounds. The AmEx tends to be quite a birdie fest as well as you can see from DK setting birdie or better lines at 5.5 for most players across all 3 courses. Past winners have reached as low as 29-under and tend to be well into the 20s. There’s a lot of randomness to who wins as plenty of longshots have come away with a victory here.

We have setup the BTN Model this week to cater to the commonalities between the courses as best as possible. Let’s take a closer look at the stats highlighted in this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: Driving accuracy matters the most at La Quinta of the three courses. Overall you really can’t spray the ball, but precision is less important at the other two courses. The BTN Model includes Distance from Edge of Fairway at 10% weight this week to reward those with smaller misses off the tee.

• APP: Iron play and putting are what will separate players this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 80-150 yards from the fairway or tee at an additional 25% weight.

• ATG: Expect a lot of GIRs this weekend, so ATG play won’t impact much. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: Players will need to convert their birdie looks to keep up with the low scoring. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-20’ at a 20% weight, and Birdie or Better % at an additional 20%.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Welcome back, world no. 1.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-1-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Pierceson Coody (-120) ✅ over Wyndham Clark (-105) on DraftKings

I don’t like to harp on the past too much, but if you’ve ever seen the gif of Homer Simpson backing slowly into the bushes, that was me last week after the very poor decision to play Denny McCarthy over SONY OPEN CHAMPION Chris Gotterup in our matchup play.

But listen here, folks. I’m coming straight out of the bushes with this week’s play at The American Express: Pierceson Coody over Wyndham Clark. We’ve got to get this ship turned around quickly, and Coody is checking all the right boxes to even up our record for the year.

Yes, Wyndham has the name recognition and the major championship pedigree, but when you look at recent form and the BTN Matchup Tool, it’s hard not to love Coody as the favorite. The overall tournament model agrees too, with Coody ranked 57th in this field compared to Clark at 90th. And with the three course rotation, you’ve got to be selective with matchup plays because it can get weird in a hurry. That said, I feel confident the form and the numbers back Coody this week to help pay off last week’s debt and get us back in the win column.

Pierceson Coody vs Wyndham Clark in the BTN Matchup tool

ICYMI: New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

In case you missed it last week, we rolled out a new live hole scoring feature on the Hole Props page to give you insights on how the course is playing relative to par and relative to average, including an option to view the AM/PM wave split hole-by-hole. There are tons of great use cases for this feature including conditions assessments, firing on hole props, seeing the impact of pin placements on individual hole scoring, anticipating AM/PM swings, and much more.

New BTN Live Scoring feature on the Hole Props page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke is as sharp as they get when firing on round props, and he’s all over the new BTN Round Prop functionality. Stay tuned to Luke’s X account this year for all of his BTN free plays.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii

You might be reading this bundled up with a hot cup of cocoa looking out over snow-covered hills, daydreaming about pulling your clubs from a deep hibernation. Thankfully, the dead of winter is no problem for the PGA Tour as the 2026 season kicks off this week with the Sony Open in Honolulu, Hawaii. Let’s throw on our leis, dust off our ukuleles, put a mini umbrella in a fruity drink, and begin another great PGA Tour season. We’re thrilled to be back.

ICYMI - Brand New BTN Functionality ⭐️ 

In case you missed it in our latest newsletter, we are coming in hot with some sweet new functionality for the 2026 PGA Tour season including a brand new Round Props page, a brand new Course Insights feature, more live stats on the Round Props and Hole Props page, improved mobile views for custom models and live stats, performance improvements, and more. Check out the full series of enhancements (including screenshots) here. Or even better, sign up for a free trial and see for yourself.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Okay, back to regularly scheduled programming. Waialae Country Club is a par 70 coming in at 7044 yards. Let’s look at our brand new Course Insights feature in BTN to see what stands out about the course. Some stats that pop include a top 25% GIR rate, top 25% scrambling rate, very low par 5 scoring, and better-than-average proximities on tee shots. All this shapes up for some good scoring opportunities as confirmed by recent winners at -16 or better.

Waialae par 5 scoring as seen on the new BTN Course Insights feature

As for course conditions, we do have a few items worth reporting from our 🥾 boots on the ground intel. The course currently features some of the longest and thickest rough we’ve ever seen here which can put fairways at a higher premium than usual here. Overall the course is much more plush than usual. The greens are still relatively soft but should firm up by the weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s BTN model:

• OTT: With a bomber’s paradise score of 7.5, long hitters do have more of an advantage at this course than average. However, bombers beware of left misses as this side of the course can be extra penal with the layouts on some of these holes. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, plus Left Rough Tendency at an additional 10%.

• APP: Approach shots are on the shorter side here with only a few longer approaches per round. With the thicker rough and a relatively low fairway hit rate, we’re putting a bit of a boost on those that play well with short looks out of the rough. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 35% weight, and SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the rough at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Short game is pretty typical for bermuda here and a bit less of a factor with the higher GIR rates. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG from bermuda at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are also typical bermuda grass greens, and players will have plenty of looks at birdies. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on bermuda at a 10% weight, and an additional 10% weight on SG:PUTT from 8-20’ to reward those that can capitalize on birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Griffin. Ben was on fire in his last several starts including a win at the WWT, solo second at the Procore, and a solid playoff run in the FedEx Cup. We’ll see if he can carry this success into the new season.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Ben Griffin as the favorite.

Tour Junkies Matchup of the Week (0-0-0) 🤼‍♂️ 

Denny McCarthy (-110) ✅ over Chris Gotterup (-115) on DraftKings

We’ve finally arrived at the first tournament of 2026, the Sony Open, and we feel really good about starting the year off with a winner here. This matchup is the classic “power vs polish” setup: Gotterup brings plenty of pop, but Denny is the more complete player and one of the best putters you’ll find in a field like this.

The matchup tool backs it up too. Denny is leading in most categories, and the biggest separator is putting. That’s a pretty nice thing to have in your corner at Waialae, where you typically need to keep the pedal down in a birdie fest and cash in on your chances.

Gotterup was a hot name last year, no doubt, but his Sony Open history is thin: one start, one missed cut. Denny, on the other hand, has been steady in Honolulu. He’s made four straight cuts at Waialae, and he’s posted top 25 finishes in each of his last two trips.

We’re rolling with the proven course fit and the elite flatstick. Give us Denny walking off Sunday with a little Sony Walkman vibe, and us dancing our way to the payout window to start 2026.

Denny McCarthy vs Chris Gotterup in the BTN Matchup tool

As an added sprinkle, we’re taking Chris Gotterup o68.5 round score in R1 at +110 on DraftKings. Using the new BTN Round Props page, we can see a historical scoring average of 68.78 at the Sony, and this creeps up to 69.3 in R1s here. With the extra juice at plus odds, we like this play for some extra alpha on Gotterup coming out the gate sluggish.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke had an incredible 2025 season making prop picks with BTN, and looks to continue his dominance over the books in the 2026 season. All of his BTN free plays will be on his X account this year, so be sure to give him a follow.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

We are stoked to kick off the 2026 season with the best community in golf betting. Let’s have a week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club

Well folks, we’ve arrived at the final PGA Tour event we’ll cover in 2025: The RSM Classic, played at Sea Island Golf Club in St. Simons Island, Georgia. The RSM features a slightly stronger field than other Fall swing events and is the last chance for players to secure their fully exempt Tour status for 2026 by finishing within the top 100 in the FedEx Cup season-long standings after this event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

⚠️ Before we get into the breakdown, an important betting note: the first two rounds are played on two courses: the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course. Rounds 3 and 4 are played exclusively at the Seaside Course. ⚠️ 

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Seaside Course is a par 70 course coming in at 7005 yards with two par 5s and four par 3s, while the Plantation course is a par 72. We’ve got plenty of course history at the RSM, though we only have ShotLink data from the Seaside course, so this breakdown will primarily apply to the Seaside course. The first thing that jumps off the page looking at Course Stats is plenty of green course averages, including a high fairway rate and GIR rate, and low 3-putt % and bogey rate. Our boots on the ground intel reports that conditions are perfect this year as well, with some of the best weather the event has seen in years. We expect quite a few birdies and scoring to be lower than average for the RSM, with a winner probably landing in the mid-20s under par.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With a relatively high fairway hit rate, low rough penalty, and a bomber’s paradise score of 7.1/10, we’re looking for distance hitters to gain an edge here. Some players will be able to exploit some really aggressive OTT play to get short looks in. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week.

• APP: Approach shots are heavy in the 120-180 yard range with plenty of 8, 9, PW shots. Guys will be throwing some darts out there with softer than usual conditions. Some modelers might want to include proximity stats to further reward the guys that can hit it close. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 120-180 yards in the fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Short game won’t be a huge factor at Sea Island as contenders will be hitting tons of greens. The grass is in great shape, isn’t overly grainy, and won’t pose too much of a challenge for those that miss a few greens. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are in perfect condition right now. They’re fast and don’t have a ton of overseed to them. Putting from 10-20’ will be a separator for those that can take advantage of their birdie looks. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 10% weight, SG:PUTT from 10-20 feet at an additional 10%, and BoB% at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rico Hoey back again, with an impressive stretch of golf in his last four events including two T5s.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rico Hoey as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (15-13-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Thorbjorn Olesen (-115) ✅ over Denny McCarthy (-110) on DraftKings

It’s our final matchup play of the year, and we are rolling with the Thunder Bear himself, Thorbjorn Olesen, as the slight favorite over Denny McCarthy. Olesen comes in quietly humming with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts and a level of steady ball-striking that fits Sea Island perfectly.

Denny, meanwhile, has not teed it up at all this fall. He will arrive on the Golden Isles without any competitive reps, and there is usually some level of rust that comes with that. When we pull up the BTN Matchup Tool, the numbers lean toward Olesen in most major stat categories, and he also ranks higher in this week’s BTN tournament-specific model.

Denny has played well at Sea Island in the past, but we are siding with the player showing real form right now. Trust the trend, trust the tool, and trust Thunder Bear. We will ride him straight to the payout window at Sea Island.

Thorbjorn OIesen vs Denny McCarthy in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his RSM Classic picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course

The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues with the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. We’re looking at a pretty weak field with only 9 of the top 100 players in the OWGR rankings in the field this week, but it’s PGA Tour golf nonetheless. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Port Royal is a short par 71 course coming in at 6828 yards with three par 5s and four par 3s. We do have three years of history here, but no stroke-level data, so most of our insights are at the round level. This course has produced 4.33 birdies per round in the past three years, a good bit higher than the Tour average of 3.67, and only 2.25 bogeys per round compared with the Tour average of 2.66. The main storyline here is the weather as the wind can really whip down in Bermuda. We’re looking at double digit wind speeds and scattered showers for most of the event which may hamper scoring just a bit.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Guys that hit it long and low tend to play well here as they can stay under the wind. Port Royal is not a tight course so accuracy is not a huge factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight this week, and Low Apex Height at a 25% weight to reward low hitters.

• APP: Players will face several longer approach shots on the long par threes and the par fives, so approach play from 175-225 is an opportunity for players to separate. Beyond that, it’s really a game of managing the wind and trying to get looks at birdies. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 15% weight, and SG:APP from 175-225 yards in the fairway at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Short game is not a huge factor here. Bogey avoidance will be important when players miss greens to avoid plus numbers on the scorecard. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG on Bermuda grass at a 5% weight this week, and Bogey Avoidance at an additional 10% weight.

• Putting: We’re looking at typical Bermuda greens down in Bermuda (shocking, we know). Players that can convert their birdie looks in the 10-15 foot range will be in good shape by the weekend. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 10% weight, and BoB% at an additional 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rico Hoey, our matchup of the week victor from last week. Rico has been playing some good golf recently with 3 T10s in his last 5!

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rico Hoey as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (15-12-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

David Lipsky (+100) ✅ over Kevin Roy (-125) on DraftKings

We cruised to an easy victory last week in our matchup play, but something tells us it won’t be quite as simple for a prestigious event like the Butterfield Bermuda Classic. All bets are off once you cross the Bermuda Triangle and try to make sense of this incredible field. That said, we’re confident taking a gamble on the plus-money underdog David Lipsky over Kevin Roy.

Weather should play a big role this week with steady winds and rain chances every day. Head-to-head, Lipsky holds a clear edge in the matchup tool and ranks slightly higher in the BTN Model — 14th overall compared to Roy at 16th. Both are in decent form and have solid course history, but nothing that jumps off the page.

All things considered, we’ll take the plus-money and trust Lipsky’s steady ball-striking and calm demeanor to hold up when conditions get rough. It might not be pretty, but when the wind starts howling and the leaderboard starts spinning, Lipsky feels like the guy still standing when the chaos clears.

David Lipsky vs Kevin Roy in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal

The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues with the World Wide Technology Championship at the Tiger Woods designed El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico. Two U.S. Ryder Cuppers lead the field this week with Ben Griffin and J.J. Spaun teeing it up alongside many players deeper in the world rankings per a typical Fall event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

El Cardonal is a typical par 72 course with four par 5s and four par 3s, coming in at 7452 yards. We do have two years of history here, but no stroke-level data, so most of our insights are at the round level. This course has a very high fairway hit rate and GIR rate, playing relatively easily. Players average just over 5 birdies per round and less than 2 birdies per round here. Relative to the last two years, the course is pretty firm and might play a hair harder than years past, but probably won’t produce materially different results. We expect the winner to remain at -20 or better.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With wide fairways, accuracy is not much of a premium this week. Length always helps, but longer hitters will be keeping their drivers in the bag for a few holes where the landing zones narrow out at longer distances. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight this week.

• APP: Since players will primarily be hitting their approach shots out of the fairways here, good approach play will be a separator. The greens are pretty sectioned so approach accuracy will yield plenty of birdie opportunities. Look for several shots coming from the 150-200 yard range. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight, and SG:APP from 150-200 yards in the fairway at an additional 15% weight.

• ATG: While players will be hitting tons of greens, when they do miss, scrambling is tough at this course. We don’t expect it to be a huge factor, but those that can scramble well will be able to save a stroke or two. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG on Bermuda grass at a 5% weight this week, and Scrambling at an additional 5%.

• Putting: This track yields a lot of birdies, so players will need to convert their birdie looks to go low. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 20% weight, and BoB% at an additional 10% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Ben Griffin, scoring a perfect 10 on the BTN Model. His worst finish in his last 5 events was a T12 so he’s definitely in good form right now.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Ben Griffin as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (14-12-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Rico Hoey (-110) ✅ over Max Greyserman (-110) on DraftKings

The oddsmaker nerds suggest an even matchup this week at the World Wide Technology Championship, but we feel very confident that Hoey will take down Greyserman for another BTN victory. We’ll look to the matchup tool first, and we see no disagreement at all from the motherboard, as Hoey shows a clear advantage from a measured stat standpoint head-to-head with Greyserman. Both players have shown some good form lately, but Hoey has clearly been the better overall player, while Greyserman has shown some technical difficulties at times. When we also look at the broader picture from a modeling and field standpoint, Hoey definitely tracks here, ranking in the Top 10 overall in our proprietary BTN Model versus Greyserman, who sits way back in the 45th slot. This one might come down to Sunday, but we feel confident Hoey will have us doing the robot dance to the payout window again this week.

Rico Hoey vs Max Greyserman in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his World Wide Technology Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort

The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues this week with the Bank of Utah Championship at the Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah. As typical for a fall swing event, there are a few notable names in the field toward the top of the OWGR list like Alex Noren, Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama, Billy Ho, and Jason Day. However, we’re primarily looking at players deeper in the OWGR rankings competing this week. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Black Desert course is a longer par 71 with three par 5s and four par 3s. This course was added as a Tour stop last year so we only have one year of history here, but based on last year’s data, look for lots of birdies during this event. The average fairway hit rate was 85% last year compared to the Tour avg of 60%, the GIR rate was 76% compared to a Tour avg of 66%, and the average birdies per round was 4.5 compared to the tour average of about 3.7. The course is pretty firm this week and should provide a fun Fall event to follow.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: While the wide fairways are inviting, players that spray the driver will find themselves in trouble here. Even with the 85% fairway hit rate, accuracy remains a factor to keep players from losing strokes off the tee. Many tee shots don’t call for driver and bombers will likely be hitting the big stick a bit less frequently. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight, and Driving Accuracy at an additional 10% weight.

• APP: Overall, approach shots are of the longer variety here, especially from 150-200 yards. The par 3s are on the shorter side, but there will be lots of layups on the par 5s with the lava lurking. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, and SG:APP from 150-200 yards in the fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Around the green play is basic here with good bent grass surrounding the greens. The rough is not overly penal, and the bunkers are ho-hum. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: Players will need to convert their birdie looks to climb the leaderboard this weekend, putting 8-15’ putting at a premium. Top contenders won’t be scrambling much this week. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT at a 15% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Kurt Kitayama, scoring a perfect 10 on the BTN Model. Kitty was playing some good golf down the stretch of the main season and will look to continue his success out in Utah.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Kurt Kitayama as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (14-11-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Mac Meissner (-110) ✅ over Ryan Gerard (-115) on DraftKings

We might have to admit it, of all the matchup plays we’ve ever dropped in this newsletter, this might just be our favorite one yet. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, but we think it plays out just fine for us. At first glance, this looks like a tight matchup between Meissner and Gerard. But once you dig into the BTN numbers, it’s a landslide. The matchup tool lights up in Meissner’s favor across every key stat except Driving Accuracy where Meissner still sits at the middle of the pack. Meissner also holds a massive edge in our BTN model: 15th overall in the field, compared to Gerard sitting at 98th. Sure, Gerard flashed some form months ago with a win at the Barracuda (a weaker-field event), but Meissner’s been far more consistent posting a runner-up at the Wyndham and two top-15s in his last five starts. Gerard, meanwhile, has sputtered with two T44s and a missed cut over his last four. Gerard can show a little “special sauce” from time to time, but we’re banking on Medium Big Mac to deliver the goods and take us straight to the cash-out drive-thru window in the Utah desert.

Mac Meissner vs Ryan Gerard in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Bank of Utah Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The Sanderson Farms Championship

The PGA Tour Fall Swing continues this week with the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. There are a few notable names in the field like Akshay Bhatia and Min Woo Lee, but we’re primarily looking at players deeper in the OWGR rankings. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The Country Club of Jackson is a longer par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. The par 5s are especially long here, with many 3 woods on second shots. The course looks pretty standard this year compared to prior years, and is in great shape with perfect greens and relatively mild rough. There is no rain in the forecast so we might see the course firm up a bit as play wears on, but we don’t expect any major outlier conditions. Look for a winner to be sitting right around the -20 mark.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Length is at a premium here. There’s only one hole where players won’t be hitting driver, and with the long par 5s, longer hitters will definitely have an advantage. The rough penalty isn’t too high, so accuracy is not as much of a factor. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight, and Par 5 Scoring at an additional 15% weight.

• APP: Players will hit a lot of second shots under 175 yards which is the primary separation for approach play. Besides this, since most second shots on par 5s will be 250+ yds, some savvy modelers might factor in SG:APP from 250+. For this week, the BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 10% weight, and SG:APP from 100-175 yards in the fairway at 30% weight.

• ATG: Around the green play is fairly standard here with grainy Bermuda lies around the greens. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 5% weight this week.

• Putting: The greens are very fast, so speed control on lag putts will be a factor. Besides this, we’re looking at pure Bermuda greens. Guys will be making plenty of putts from within 20 feet this week. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on Bermuda at a 25% weight.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rasmus Hojgaard, fresh off a Ryder Cup victory with Team Europe. Also in the top 5 is defending champ Kevin Yu looking to defend his title.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rasmus Hojgaard as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (13-11-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Emiliano Grillo (-110) ✅ over Alex Smalley (-110) on DraftKings

It’s a good old-fashioned chicken fight in Mississippi, and we’re backing the Argentinian to strut out of the ring. Grillo rolls in with real momentum, fresh off a T4 at the Procore Championship where he stacked four rounds in the 60s and looked fully in control tee-to-green. Smalley, on the other hand, has been pecking around without much to show for it, missing the cut in 4 of his last 6 starts. Our BTN Matchup Tool shows Grillo with the edge across the key stats, and he lands #4 in the overall BTN model this week (Smalley #19). Books have this priced as a coin flip, but our numbers say the pecking order isn’t even. Add in Grillo’s tendency to cash when the putter cooperates and the driver behaves, and you have the exact profile we want at a gettable Sanderson setup. Even odds, clear edge. We’ll take Grillo -110 and let Smalley wear the frown when the feathers settle.

Emiliano Grillo vs Alex Smalley in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Sanderson Farms Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Today’s newsletter will be a little different, as one of our founders was fortunate to be on the Team USA stats & analytics team back at the 2018 Ryder Cup. I’m Ryan, writing from first-hand experience of what it was like playing a (very) small role in one of the most incredible sports weeks we are blessed with every two years. Let the record state I’ve had absolutely zero involvement with the Ryder Cup since the infamous “Slaughter by the Water” back in 2021.

The suspense has been building up since Rory McIlroy boldly claimed 5 seconds after victory in Rome that the Europeans were going to come to Bethpage and win an away Ryder Cup. A lot of drama has unfolded since then, from the idea of a Keegan being a playing captain to the more recent money talks and where the priorities of each team lies (mainly stewed up by the media).

None of that matters now. We’re one day away from the first tee shot. Every player in each of those locker rooms wants to do anything they can to get points for their team. The players want the blowout. They want to bury their opponent in front of a home crowd or shock the world and do what only a handful have done… win an away Ryder Cup. As a fan, you want a battle. You want the matches to come down to the last hole and to witness the best golf in the highest pressure moments.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

We’ve only seen this course twice in the last 10 years, with the PGA Championship here back in 2019 and the 2016 Barclays. Bethpage isn’t setup quite like a Major venue this week. They’ve widened the fairways, they’ve cut the rough and it’s likely going to be soft with the forecast we’re expecting. It’s playing at ~7,350 yards as a par 70 and I think we’re going to see a lot of birdies this week.

The home team gets to control the setup of the golf course, and naturally the stats & analytics team plays a role in how the course should be setup to favor their team. Or at the very least, keep your opponent from having an edge against you.

Bethpage is a pretty balanced course on Odds/Evens when it comes to the par 3s and 5s. Both the Odds and Evens have two par 3s and one par 5. The even holes do favor a draw, and you’ll see longer approaches in on the odds.

It is actually pretty wild how statistically different a Foursomes pairing can be if you simply flip which player tees off on Odds/Evens. There is a two-sided conversation that happens here, with the analytics teams showing the captains who the more optimal pairings are and then the players personal preference of what holes they want to tee off on. The first hole tee shot of any Ryder Cup is infamous for being the most nervous they’ve ever been in their lives.

Without being dramatic, picking the correct Foursome pairings could literally be the difference of winning or losing a Ryder Cup.

Pairings 👥 

This is a VERY exciting year for pairings. We’ve got 4 rookies on the US roster this year that are up there as some of the better players in the field. We don’t have the Justin Thomas/Jordan Spieth pairing, and the only “historical” pairing we’ve got is the Xander & Cantlay foursome pairing. Then you have the Europeans coming in with the same captain and an almost identical team from 2023, the only difference swapping out a brother.

Picking pairings is a huge part of the contribution of the stats & analytics teams. It is incredible what is possible when it comes to forecasting what can happen before it does. At the end of the day, it’s the captains decision who goes out how and when. It was our job to ensure they have all the information they can to make the best decision for the team.

I’ll go through a few foursomes pairings that I think we’ll see based off the practice pods we’ve seen

Team USA Foursomes

• Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay: Our only pairing that’s had multiple cups worth of experience together. They lost both matches together in Rome, but that was up against two of the best pairings that Europe sent out. They are 2-0 together at home in Foursomes and strong chemistry between the two. I would expect this pairing in the first session and then again Saturday morning if it goes well. Xander on the odds and Patrick on the evens

• Justin Thomas & Cameron Young: I wouldn’t be shocked if JT only played in the opening foursomes session. JT’s game matched up with Bethpage this week doesn’t look ideal, but like Keegan said he was born to play in Ryder Cups. I think this would be an exciting pairing with a Ryder Cup veteran and the quiet hometown rookie. Cam on the odds and JT on the evens.

• Scottie Scheffler & Russell Henley: There’s no sugar coating it. We need Scottie to go out there and play at least 4 matches and get points in all of them. Once Russ drains that first putt, he’ll settle in and be off to the races. Need these guys to deliver. Scottie on the odds and Russ on the evens.

Team EUR Foursomes

• Viktor Hovland & Ludvig Aberg: They beat Scottie & Brooks 9&7 in Rome. I’d be absolutely stunned if we don’t see them again. Ludvig on the odds and Viktor on the evens.

• Jon Rahm & Tyrrell Hatton: I don’t know if I need to say more than LIV teammates and 2-0 together in Rome foursomes. Europe sent them out for the first match in Rome, maybe they’ll do it again? Rahm on the odds and Hatton on the evens.

• Rory McIlroy & Tommy Fleetwood: Another contender for the opening pairing on Friday. This is a pairing that could sway the crowd. If they come out and make a statement early it could be trouble for the Americans. Rory on the odds and Tommy on the evens.

As I’m typing this, I don’t like it but I think Europe is in the better position. They’ve got nothing to lose because they’re the underdogs and everything to gain with an away victory. They have some solid pairing opportunities at their disposal. The US has a few more wildcards with some of our more seasoned veterans not necessarily being in top form.

The BTN Ryder Cup Model

We’ve got 24 of the best players in the world at this event, the BTN Ryder Cup 2025 model is relatively simple and broken down with the following stats:

• OTT: Bethpage is definitely not a short course. There’s only 2 non par 3 holes where players likely aren’t hitting driver. Standard SG:OTT per round vs. field weighted at 35%

• APP: There’s going to be a lot of approaches 165 yards and further, so the BTN Model features standard SG:APP per round vs. field and SG:APP from 165+ yards vs. Tour baseline, weighted at 10% and 25% respectively

• Scrambling: You’re going to miss greens in the Ryder Cup, 10% weighting on the ability to get up and down.

• Putting: Those 5-15 footers… the ones you dream of to win a Ryder Cup, could actually be the difference maker. We’ve weighted SG:Putting 5-15’ vs. Tour baseline at 20%

This week’s BTN Model favorite is Scottie Scheffler, scoring a near perfect 9.6. Our top 10 is rounded out with 5 Americans and 5 Europeans… a recipe for an EXCITING Ryder Cup weekend.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (13-10-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Tommy Fleetwood (-130) ✅ over Xander Schauffele (+105) – Most Points

We hate fading the red, white, and blue, but this one’s just too good to pass up. Tommy Lad is checking nearly every box in the BTN Matchup Tool, and the form gap between these two couldn’t be more obvious. Fleetwood has been on a heater with four top-5s in his last six starts, capped off with a breakthrough win at the Tour Championship to lock up the FedEx Cup. Meanwhile, Xander hasn’t sniffed a top-10 since The Open in July and has looked…well, average by his standards all year.

The Ryder Cup résumé only tilts things further toward Tommy. He’s 7-3-2 in the event and forever etched in history as half of the “Moliwood” duo that torched Paris in 2018 at 4-0. Compare that to Xander’s 4-4 mark, and it feels like one guy thrives in this atmosphere while the other is still figuring it out. Bethpage will bring the noise, but we’ll ride with Fleetwood to rain on the American parade and cash as the rightful favorite.

Tommy Fleetwood vs. Xander Schauffele in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦

This week’s Feature Spotlight: Ryder Cup Page. Right now we’re just showing you the Ryder Cup performance of every player in this field. You can sort by team, format, number of matches and Point %. Call this version 1, with a lot more to come in the future.

The BTN Ryder Cup Page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

There’s nothing better than The Ryder Cup. Enjoy this weekend and good luck with your bets!

Ryan L.

Bet The Number

2018 Ryder Cup at Le Golf National

The Procore Championship

The PGA Tour Fall Swing is officially underway with the Procore Championship at the Silverado Resort North Course in Napa, CA. What better wine pairing is there than some golf? Thanks to Captain Keegan, most of the American Ryder Cup team is in the field this week which gives us a handful of top players leading an otherwise middle-of-the-pack field. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Silverado is a par 72 with four par 5s (three of which are on the back 9) and four par 3s. At 7123 yards, the course is not overly long. Fairways are pretty tight, with a fairway hit rate just under 50% compared to the Tour avg of ~60%. However, this doesn’t impact much on the backend as we see higher GIRs, slightly more birdies per round, and 0.3 less bogeys per round than Tour average here. Conditions this year are softer than normal with a touch of rain that came through, and the rough is a big thicker than normal. That said, we’re looking at much of the same for this year’s event.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: With the narrow fairways at Silverado, accuracy will be a factor off the tee. At a 5.6/10 on the bombers paradise scale, we’re not looking at a huge distance advantage for the long hitters either. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 15% weight and driving accuracy at an additional 5% weight.

• APP: Players will be hitting plenty of short approach shots this week, averaging ~12 approach shots from 175 yards or less. With the low Fairway Hit rate as well, playing out of the rough will be a factor - though Silverado has an average rough penalty relative to other PGA Tour courses. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight, SG:APP from 100-175 yards in the fairway at 15% weight, and SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the rough at an additional 10% weight.

• ATG: Scrambling will be a factor with the amount of approach play coming from the rough. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week, and gives scrambling an additional 5% weight.

• Putting: The greens at Silverado are bumpy poa which make for challenging putting. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT on poa at a 20% weight to reward good putters on poa greens.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. Interestingly though, none of Scottie’s Ryder Cup teammates have cracked the top 5 of the BTN model, though we do see Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Patrick Cantlay coming in at 7, 8, and 9 respectively.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (12-10-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Mark Hubbard (-110) ✅ over Matt McCarty (-110) on DraftKings

The books may have this one dead even, but we see a clear edge with Mark Hubbard this week over Matt McCarty. The BTN Matchup Tool backs it up, giving “Homeless Hubbs” the nod across most key stats. Hubbard is trending nicely — coming off a T3 at the Wyndham— and he loves Silverado, cashing top-25 finishes in 3 of his last 5 trips here. McCarty, meanwhile, is making his debut at this track. That’s a tall order against a guy with proven course chops and recent momentum. It might look like a coin flip on paper, but we’re siding with Hubbs to keep you from being down in the dumps and get you headed straight to the cash-out window in Napa. Cheers!

Mark Hubbard vs Matt McCarty in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Procore Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The FedEx Cup Playoffs conclude at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA

The final event in the FedEx Cup playoffs has arrived with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club as the top 30 players on the PGA Tour compete to take home the FedEx Cup. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

East Lake Golf Club is the regular venue for the TOUR Championship, so we have plenty of data on the course from years past. The course is back to a par 70 after a brief one-year stint as a par 71 as hole 14 was moved back to a par 4. There’s been some chatter that the Tour is trying to setup the course harder than usual this year, but our on-course intel reports that there’s not too much of a difference from years past. Winning scores will look a bit different, however, with every player starting at level-par in this year’s event. Sorry, Scottie - no 10-under start for you this year (not that it matters, right?)

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Fairways are pretty wide here, and players will be taking driver on most par 4s and 5s. The rough is pretty penal, but interestingly quite patchy and inconsistent throughout the course - thick in some spots and not quite as bad in others. With that, some luck will come into play for those missing fairways this week. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 25% weight.

• APP: Players will be hitting plenty of shots from the top and bottom of their bag, but not so many mid-irons. The Approach Distribution chart on the Course page is a bit misleading as most of the 126-175 shots are actually in the 126-150 range. The greens are very sectioned here, so hitting the right section on approach will play a big factor in birdie looks vs. a potential 3-putt. The BTN Model includes SG:APP from 100-150 yards in the fairway at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 180-220 yards from the tee/fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: The zoysia grass around the green at East Lake doesn’t play too difficult. Chipping will come into play for some of the holes that require long-irons in where players will be looking to save par with an up-and-down. The BTN Model includes standard Scrambling as our ATG stat this week at a 15% weight.

• Putting: The greens at East Lake are fast with lots of slope. As mentioned in APP, they’re sectioned greens, so most players will be looking at either a birdie attempt or a lag putt depending on their approach shot. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 6-12’ to capture the birdie looks, and 3-putt avoidance to capture lag putting skill.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Rory McIlroy. Believe it or not, Rory surpasses Scottie in this week’s model with slightly better approach play in key yardage buckets and better putting from 6-12’.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Rory McIlroy as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (12-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Harry Hall (+100) ✅ over Corey Conners (-105) on DraftKings

They say scared money don’t make money, and this week we’re not scared to back Harry Hall as a plus-money dog against Corey Conners at East Lake. Hall has been nothing but consistent with 10 top-25s in his last 11 starts, while Conners has been stumbling since his WD at the U.S. Open with just one top-10 and little else of note. The BTN Matchup Tool shows it close but still leans Hall across key categories. Our East Lake model likes him even more, slotting Hall inside the top 10, with Conners trailing behind. Call it confidence, call it a heater—we’re rolling with the Englishman and his scally cap to finish the season by knocking off Conners.

Harry Hall vs Corey Conners in the BTN Matchup tool

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his TOUR Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

Round 2 of the playoffs is upon us at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD

After an exciting playoff finish in Memphis, the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup rankings have moved on to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, MD. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

The BMW Championship was played at Caves Valley back in 2021, where Patrick Cantlay won in a playoff against Bryson DeChambeau. The course played pretty easy in 2021, but has been totally redone since then, so the data from the last event should come with an asterisk. The course par has been updated from 72 to 70 as two of the par 5s were shortened a bit and converted into par 4s, but the course remains quite long, coming in at a 7601-yard par 70. The greens have been totally redone and are more severe and more firm than they were last go-round. The fairways have been narrowed as well, and fairway bunkers will be in play for all players, even the long hitters. We definitely don’t buy into the birdie-fest narrative for this event - we might see a winner at 12- to 15-under, but don’t expect a ton of guys posting super low scores.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Players will be hitting driver on almost every par 4 and 5 here. The fairways have been narrowed a bit, but the rough is pretty short and won’t be causing major trouble. Distance is the name of the game this week as longer hitters will have an advantage tackling the length of the course. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight, and Carry Distance with an additional 5% sprinkle to reward long hitters.

• APP: Long irons will be in the spotlight at this event due to the length of the course. Last time they played at Caves Valley, players were averaging 9 approach shots per round over 175 yards, including a few long par 3s. The green complexes are quite big and sectioned, so 3-putts are in play for inaccurate approach shots. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 150-220 yards from the tee/fairway at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: Short game is not crazy hard here, but players will be facing some up-and-over chips from the rough around the greens. Though players will be hitting plenty of long irons into firm greens, the size of the green complexes mitigates some of this danger. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The large greens will bring 3-putts into play for those that want to model 3-putt avoidance. Players will definitely have their share of birdie looks though, so the 10-15’ range will be important to get some circles on the scorecard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 5-15’ to capture both testers for par and birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. The King continues his reign. Some other interesting names have snuck into the top 10 this week though, including the likes of Chris Gotterup and Cam Young. The course sets up great for players like these two who hit the ball a mile and have had confidence with their putters recently.

This week’s top 10 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (11-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Rickie Fowler (-120) ✅ over Shane Lowry (-105) on DraftKings

Listen, folks — we’re calling it. The heater is on, and we’re not about to step off. This week, we’re riding Rickie Fowler to keep the streak alive over Shane Lowry at Cave’s Valley. The BTN Matchup Tool backs us up, with Fowler ahead or tied in 9 of 11 key stat categories. They’re neck-and-neck in our overall tournament model, but Rickie’s recent edge off the tee could be the deciding factor on this track. Combine that with Fowler’s sharper form compared to Lowry’s up-and-down play, and the path looks clear. We’re trusting the numbers, the momentum, and a little of that old Rickie Fowler swagger to carry us through. Punch the ticket — Rickie gets it done.

Rickie Fowler vs Shane Lowry in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Driving card on the Player page. When courses like Caves Valley call for bombers, we come here to see how players are driving the ball. Cam Young has been in great form recently with both distance and accuracy, and his driving numbers back up his OTT prowess.

Cam Young’s Driving card on the Player page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his BMW Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The playoffs begin for the PGA tour at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis

The playoffs are upon us. The top 70 players on the PGA Tour (minus Rory) are teeing it up this week at TPC Southwind in an effort to place in the top 50 of FedEx Cup standings to advance to the BMW Championship next weekend. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

An interesting storyline to track this week is that TPC Southwind has undergone quite a few renovations in preparation for this year’s event. Much of the course has been re-grassed, including many fairways, aprons around the greens, and the greens themselves. The new greens are quite firm, the rough is thicker than in years past, and chipping will be a bit easier without grainy Bermuda lies. Some bunkers have been redone as well, including both fairway and green bunkers, and they look to be a bit less penal than before. Overall, the course is in great shape, and the renovations have been received well. We might see some low scores each day in the -6 to -7 range, but we’re targeting -12 to -15 for a winning score this weekend.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: Given the Bermuda rough is a bit thicker than usual, accuracy will play at more of a premium in this year’s event. Long hitters tend to pull their drivers out of the bag a bit less than average at TPC Southwind as well which is evident by the course being a 2.6/10 on the bomber’s paradise scale. The BTN Model includes standard SG:OTT at a 20% weight, and Distance from Edge of Fairway at a 10% weight to reward accuracy.

• APP: This has always been an approach player’s course; many of the past winners and top performers were great iron players. There are plenty of middle-of-the bag shots from 120-190 here, and some tucked pin locations will be difficult to reach. More advanced modelers could include SG:APP out of Bermuda rough as a differentiating statistic given the extra length on the rough this year. The BTN Model includes standard SG:APP at a 25% weight this week, and SG:APP from 120-190 yards at an additional 20% weight.

• ATG: The grass around the greens is all Zoysia now, so players won’t be facing dicey, grainy Bermuda lies like they used to here. However, the greens are very firm for chipping, so ATG play won’t be too much easier than years past. The BTN Model includes standard SG:ATG at a 10% weight this week.

• Putting: The Bermuda greens are in perfect condition right now. They aren’t very grainy like typical Bermuda at this point though, so we don’t think it’s necessary to model specifically on Bermuda greens. The greens are relatively flat so we don’t expect many 3-putts, though some tucked pins may be hard to reach on approach shots. Guys will have plenty of birdie looks from 8-15 feet and will need to convert these to jump ahead in the leaderboard. The BTN Model includes SG:PUTT from 8-15’ to reward those that can sink their birdie looks.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Scottie Scheffler. If he plays, he’s the favorite. This is the way. The remainder of the BTN Model top 5 is quite interesting though, with #3 ranked Sepp Straka coming in at #3 in our model, and the remaining three coming from much higher in FedEx rankings.

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Scottie Scheffler as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (10-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Russell Henley (-120) ✅ over Justin Thomas (-105) on DraftKings

We’re heading into the playoffs at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in the green for the season, and we’re backing the hot hand in Russell Henley to keep it rolling at TPC Southwind. Henley lands inside the top 10 of our proprietary BTN Model this week, while JT sits back at 44th — a clear signal when it comes to course-fit and key stat performance. The Matchup Tool also favors Henley, with noticeable separation in SG: Approach and Scrambling over the last 24 rounds, which are both critical at Southwind where precision is everything. Another underrated edge? Accuracy off the tee. Henley ranks much better in our “Distance from Edge of Fairway” metric, a sneaky stat that tends to matter more on tighter layouts like this one where big misses can derail a round. We’ll trust the model and the stat profile to carry Henley through the Memphis heat and into the win column.

Russell Henley vs Justin Thomas in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Past Top Performers card on the Course page. We’ve added a few enhancements to this card recently, including the average stat profile for certain finishing positions (ARG not much of a factor here?), and the scores of each player in those finishing positions. Context is everything when shaping up bets each week, and having the ability to see what stat profiles and scoring conditions were successful in years past at a given course are typically great indicators of who might see success in the future there.

The Past Top Performers card on the Course page

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

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Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number

The PGA tour takes on the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club this week.

The PGA Tour takes on the Wyndham Championship this week at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. As the last event of the PGA Tour regular season before the FedEx Cup Playoffs start, many golfers on the cusp of the top 70 in FedEx points will be jockeying to secure their position in the playoffs during this event. Let’s dive into the numbers for this week’s tournament with Bet The Number, the premier golf analytics platform.

The Course Blueprint 🗺️ 

Sedgefield Country Club is a Donald Ross course that plays as a short par 70 with two par 5s and four par 3s. Length is definitely a storyline here as players will be hitting plenty of less-than-driver tee shots; the longer players may be hitting as low as 5 drivers per round. Real separation will be made on the greens as this is a difficult course to putt with fast, sloping greens.

Let’s take a look at this week’s model:

• OTT: As mentioned, this is a heavy less-than-driver course; we’re only looking at a 4.4/10 on the bomber’s paradise meter. Accuracy will be much more helpful here as this course presents a severe rough penalty. The BTN Model features Distance from Edge of Fairway this week as its sole OTT metric with a 20% weight.

• APP: On average, players are hitting 7-8 shots from 125-175 yards at Sedgefield. Wedges and short irons are the name of the game this weekend, and hitting approaches close to the pin is a must due to the difficult greens. The BTN Model features standard SG:APP at a 20% weight this week, and SG:APP from 100-170 yards for an additional 30% to put a heavy emphasis on approach play.

• ATG: Chipping is tough here with the grainy Bermuda grass around the greens. That said, we’re looking at a pretty high GIR rate, and reachable par 5s, so top contenders won’t be hitting too many ATG shots. The BTN Model features Scrambling at a 10% weight this week to credit players that can save pars if they miss the green.

• Putting: Tough course to putt with quick, sloping greens. Players that aren’t hitting approach shots close to the pin will definitely be staring down 3-putts. The BTN Model features SG:Putt from 6-15’ at a 10% weight to reward players that can make birdies/save pars, and 3-Putt Avoidance from 25’+ at a 10% weight as those extra strokes will matter.

This week’s BTN Model favorite is (🥁 drumroll please…) Emiliano Grillo. Grillo is currently 66th in FedEx Cup points ranking and might face some pressure from the players outside the top 70 looking for their chance to sneak into the playoffs. Can he hold them off?

This week’s top 5 in the BTN Model, with Emiliano Grillo as the favorite.

Matchup of the Week (9-9-1) 🤼‍♂️ 

Ben Griffin (-120) ✅ over Robert MacIntyre (-105) on DraftKings

The final regular season stop at the Wyndham gives us a sneaky-good matchup between two players in solid form, but the edge clearly goes to North Carolina native Ben Griffin when you dig into the numbers. Both players have been trending nicely, but Griffin stands out in our model this week. He ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Approach compared to Bobby Mac’s 32nd — a key stat at Sedgefield, where precision with the irons is everything. The course history leans heavily Griffin’s way as well, with two top 10s in his last three starts here. MacIntyre, by contrast, has never found a groove at this track, with a missed cut and a T65 in his two appearances. We’ll ride the form, the irons, and the home-course edge with Ben Griffin to close out the regular season on a high note.

Ben Griffin vs. Robert MacIntyre in the BTN Matchup tool

Feature Spotlight 🔦 

This week’s Feature Spotlight: The Approach card on the Course page. This card is packed with several key pieces of information that we’re looking for every week when breaking down the course:

1. Approach Shot Distance Buckets: How many shots are players hitting from each distance bucket? This helps us choose our SG:APP distance filters by seeing where the most shots are coming from.

2. Approach Shot Lies: How often are players hitting from fairways? This helps us determine if we need to consider modeling players out of the rough vs. fairways.

3. Rough Penalty: How severely are players penalized when they miss fairways? This often feeds into the accuracy vs. length conversation off the tee.

Put all this together, and we have a ton of great data to inform both our OTT and APP modeling on any given week.

The Approach card for Sedgefield Country Club.

GS Luke’s Prop Preview ⛳️ 

GS Luke has been crushing it with the prop picks over on the BTN blog. Check out his Wyndham Championship picks and analysis here, and stay tuned to his X for more GS Luke content.

Join the BTN Community

• Try BTN Free for 7 Days: New users get full access to our analytics and tools with a free 7 day trial.

• Stay sharp with BTN on X: We’re always breaking down stats and insights on our X account.

• Help Shape our Roadmap: Got a feature request or feedback? We’re all ears.

Best of luck this week!

Ben K.

Bet The Number