Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Israeli P.M. Firmly Rejects Gaza Peace Plan Led By Trump Admin

• Iran Insists On Concessions For Hormuz Opening

• Taiwanese War Games Ramp Up Amid Tensions With China

Israeli P.M. Firmly Rejects Gaza Peace Plan Led By Trump Admin

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with President Donald Trump. (Kevin Mohatt - Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected the Trump administration-backed roadmap for Gaza on Sunday, telling his cabinet that "Israel does not accept the 15-point document" and that the military will not pull back from the territory until Hamas is stripped of every weapon — remarks that cast fresh doubt on a plan President Donald Trump announced last month as a historic breakthrough toward ending the conflict.

"When I say the disarming of Hamas, it means heavy weaponry, lighter weaponry, all weaponry," Netanyahu said in televised remarks at the start of the government meeting in Jerusalem. "And we are talking about genuine disarmament, not fictitious disarmament." The military, he said, "will not carry out any withdrawal until Hamas is disarmed."

Netanyahu acknowledged that discussions with Washington continue. "They have ideas, some of which are acceptable to us and some of which are unacceptable, and we know how to stand firm against these things," he said. He had made similar comments in a social media post Tuesday, but Sunday's statement was his most direct repudiation of the framework since the Board of Peace — the body Trump established to oversee the Gaza ceasefire — published the roadmap on July 30, giving Israel and Hamas two weeks to agree on a timetable and implementation mechanisms.

There was no immediate White House comment. Netanyahu also used the meeting to restate his opposition to Palestinian statehood: "As long as I am prime minister, there will be no Palestinian state, not in Gaza and not in Judea and Samaria. Neither 'Fatahstan' nor 'Hamastan.'"

A Dispute Over Who Moves First

The core disagreement remains sequencing. Trump announced last month that both sides had agreed to a framework in which Israeli forces withdraw as Hamas's disarmament proceeds, with an International Stabilization Force and a new Palestinian police force securing the enclave. Hamas says implementation depends on Israel first meeting its commitments — halting attacks and withdrawing; Israel insists complete disarmament come first.

Nikolay Mladenov, the Board of Peace's envoy for Gaza, said Sunday that discussions on the roadmap were ongoing. In an interview with Israel's N12 News, he said Israel would be required to withdraw "sector by sector" once weapons have been collected from Hamas and rendered unusable — a formulation closer to Israel's position than to simultaneous phasing.

Hamas, for its part, said it remains on board. "We remain committed to the road map," senior official Basem Naim said, adding that the group expects "the mediators and the U.S. guarantor to press Netanyahu and his government to adhere to the roadmap and not obstruct the process for internal political and electoral reasons." Hamas avoids the word "disarmament," saying it agreed to hand over weapons for storage under a US-backed Palestinian technocratic administration, and a Hamas official said Saturday the group had informed mediators of its readiness to begin the second phase "provided it receives Israeli approval and that Israel begins implementing the agreement."

Even amid the public rejection, facts on the ground have shifted. Israel has scaled back operations in Gaza since Monday, when Mladenov met Netanyahu, and a source familiar with Israel's position said the military agreed to act only against what it perceives as immediate threats, suspending the targeted killings it had been conducting on a near-daily basis. Since the October 2025 ceasefire, more than 1,250 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks, most of them civilians, according to Gaza health officials, while Israel has reported the deaths of four or five soldiers in the territory over the same period. Israeli forces control roughly two-thirds of the enclave, with most of its more than 2 million residents confined to a coastal strip under Hamas control, many in tents or damaged buildings.

Election Pressure and Warnings of an "Ambush"

Netanyahu's rejection lands amid a difficult reelection campaign ahead of the October 27 vote, with the prime minister caught between Trump — his key military backer, who wants progress toward ending the war — and far-right coalition partners who oppose any pullback. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich praised the statement. "We went to war with a central goal: the destruction of Hamas," he said. "The military cannot withdraw even a millimeter from the Gaza Strip." Smotrich was separately quoted telling Netanyahu that with an official document now published, "we must delegitimize this document. We can't maneuver."

Israel's security establishment has framed Hamas's acceptance as a trap. Shin Bet chief David Zini reportedly told ministers the agreement "is a process of strategic deception aimed at buying time and ensuring we don't return to military action in Gaza before the election," calling it "a strategic ambush by Hamas" and, according to one account, a "diplomatic October 7." The head of military intelligence's research department warned that Hamas "hasn't abandoned the vision of destroying Israel" and cautioned against foreign forces from states such as Turkey and Qatar deploying near Israeli border towns. National Security Adviser Shmuel Ben Ezra reportedly said Israel has handed Washington a list of demanded corrections to the roadmap.

Minister Ze'ev Elkin argued the near-total freeze on offensive operations itself signaled acquiescence. "If Israel doesn't carry out offensive action for two weeks, the meaning is that we have accepted and entered the process," he said. "That's why we need to publish that we are not signing these 15 points."

Reaction in Gaza and the Road Ahead

In Gaza, the rejection was read through the lens of Israeli politics. "What is happening now is essentially an attempt to boost Netanyahu's electoral campaign," said Saeed Al-Zaanin, a displaced father. "He wants to reach the elections and then tell people, 'There are no solutions for Gaza.'" Lina Arhim, a student, said residents "had been so hopeful that we would finally see a better life than this — that we could stop carrying water and stop living in tents."

Analysts note that Trump has claimed considerable sway over the Israeli leader, boasting in recent interviews that "the Israelis respect me and do what I say." But Netanyahu has defied Washington before without consequence, and US pressure to date has remained largely rhetorical. How the president responds to a public rejection of a plan he announced in capital letters as a "HISTORIC agreement" is now the open question — one complicated by a regional agenda already crowded with the Iran war, stalled Hormuz negotiations, and escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Red Sea coast.

The two-week window the Board of Peace set for agreeing on implementation expires this week. Hamas says it is ready to proceed. Israel says it will not sign. The mediators, for the moment, are left holding a roadmap that only one side accepts — and each side is betting the other will be blamed if it collapses.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Lula Launches Bid For Fourth Presidential Term In Brazil

• Cueta Quells Chaos From Migrants Fleeing From Morocco

• U.S. Senators Reach Short Term Funding Deal To Avert Shutdown

Lula Launches Bid For Fourth Presidential Term In Brazil

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Saturday he will run for a fourth term in October, telling a Workers' Party convention in Brasilia that he intends to win and that the country "cannot go backwards."

"I am ready. I have the energy of a 30-year-old man and I am in love with Brazil," the 80-year-old said. "I will be a candidate for president of the republic to win."

The announcement ended months of speculation over whether Lula would seek reelection. He governed from 2003 to 2010, returned to office in 2023 after beating then-President Jair Bolsonaro, and would be 85 at the close of a fourth term in 2031. He has led every major poll for months.

Lula devoted much of his speech to Brazil's standoff with the United States. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on many Brazilian goods last year over the prosecution of Bolsonaro, and the Treasury Department sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. "Brazil is not for sale, Brazil is not negotiable, and our sovereignty is not up for discussion," Lula said. "The gringos cannot rule Brazil. Only Brazilians can."

First Ballot Without Bolsonaro Since 2018

The October 4 vote will be the first presidential election since 2018 without Bolsonaro on the ballot. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat and is barred from office until 2030.

From prison, Bolsonaro endorsed his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, as his successor. The Liberal Party formally nominated Flavio last month after Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, long viewed as the right's strongest option, chose to seek reelection instead. Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, and former minister Ciro Gomes are also in the race or preparing bids.

Polls show Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by around 10 percentage points in a first round, with a tighter margin in a runoff. About a third of voters say they would never vote for Lula. Flavio's rejection numbers run nearly as high.

Flavio has said he would pardon his father if elected. Lula's campaign is expected to hammer that pledge, along with the Bolsonaro family's lobbying in Washington that preceded the tariffs.

Prices and Crime Weigh on the Incumbent

Lula's approval sagged for much of last year before recovering. Unemployment sits near historic lows, a strong harvest helped cool inflation, and his flagship income tax exemption for Brazilians earning up to 5,000 reais a month took effect in January after clearing Congress.

"We have delivered more than we promised," he said Saturday. "But I know that life is still hard for many people. That is why I want four more years: to finish the job."

Food prices remain a running complaint, and crime has become the campaign's hardest issue for the left. Surveys consistently place public security among voters' top concerns. A police operation against the Comando Vermelho gang in Rio de Janeiro last October left more than 120 people dead and pushed the debate to the center of national politics. The government's response, a constitutional amendment restructuring federal-state security cooperation, is stalled in Congress.

Lula also addressed his age directly. "Age is not measured by documents," he said. "It is measured by the will to fight."

The Trump Factor

The tariff fight has cut in Lula's favor. His poll numbers rose after Trump tied the levies to Bolsonaro's prosecution, a linkage that many Brazilians, including some conservatives, read as interference in the country's courts. Negotiations have since produced partial relief on beef, coffee, and other products, but most of the tariffs remain.

Lula has built his early campaign message around the dispute, repeating the phrase "sovereignty is not negotiable" at rallies and in speeches for months. On Saturday he closed with a reference to the January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings in Brasilia by Bolsonaro supporters. "Never again a coup in this country," he said. "Democracy won, and democracy will win again."

The convention approved his candidacy alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, the centrist former Sao Paulo governor who joined the ticket in 2022 and stays on as running mate. The campaign formally opens in August. The first round is set for October 4, with a likely runoff October 25.

Lula, a former metalworker from the country's northeast, has won three presidential elections and spent 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled, clearing the way for his 2022 comeback. His party is betting a fourth is within reach; the rejection numbers, the price of food, and the security debate will decide whether the bet pays off.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Israeli P.M. Slams Accusations & Arrest Threat By NYC Mayor

• UN Chief Calls For Public Support Of Syria In Damascus Visit

• Romania Downs 3rd Drone In 3 Days As Tensions Rise With Russia

Israeli P.M. Slams Accusations & Arrest Threat By NYC Mayor

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 16, 2026 (Ilia Yefimovich - AFP)

_{By: Atlas}

Benjamin Netanyahu used a Sunday television appearance to hit back at New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, accusing him of "fomenting hate" and stoking fear among Jewish New Yorkers, and vowing to address the United Nations General Assembly in the city this fall despite the mayor's declaration that he is not welcome. The exchange marked the sharpest escalation yet in a running feud between the Israeli prime minister and the newly elected mayor.

The clash traces to Mamdani's long-stated intention to see Netanyahu arrested on an International Criminal Court warrant. Last week the mayor conceded the city has no legal power to do so, but he still branded Netanyahu a war criminal unwelcome in New York and urged the federal government to act. Netanyahu, appearing on Fox News, answered that he was "not concerned" and turned the accusation back on the mayor.

The Prime Minister's Charges

"He's fomenting hate. He's supposed to be the mayor of all New Yorkers, Jews, Christians, Muslims, everyone, but he's trying to turn one group against the other," Netanyahu said on "Sunday Morning Futures." He said Jewish friends in New York had told him they were afraid to wear yarmulkes or clothing that would identify them as Jewish, describing a climate in which "we're afraid to go into the streets."

He tied that fear to a specific incident, a pair of stabbings in New York on Thursday in which a suspect wounded a Jewish man and an Asian man blocks apart, allegedly shouting "Allahu akbar." Both men survived, and the suspect was charged with hate crimes. "I don't think it's accidental that after he made this hate speech against Israel and against me, the next day a Jew is stabbed coming out of a synagogue," Netanyahu said.

He went further, asserting that Mamdani had "celebrated" the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and that leading Democrats had privately told him they joined what he called the party's "radical fringe" out of fear their families would be harassed. He offered no evidence for either claim. Mamdani has repeatedly described the October 7 attack as "a horrific war crime." His wife, the artist Rama Duwaji, drew scrutiny for social media activity around that date and apologized in April for past posts she said used harmful language.

Mamdani's Position

The mayor had laid out his stance in a video the previous week, after being pressed in a New York Times interview on a campaign pledge to have police arrest Netanyahu. "It is clear that we do not have the independent legal authority to enforce this warrant," Mamdani said, calling on the federal government to join the ICC and execute it. "I want to be equally clear, Benjamin Netanyahu is not welcome in New York City, nor is any other war criminal at large."

He told New Yorkers he understood their frustration and that the city would "always respect" expressions of protest, and he has urged supporters to demonstrate when Netanyahu arrives. His office did not respond to requests for comment on Netanyahu's Sunday remarks.

Legal experts have said Mamdani never had the authority he once claimed. The United States is not a member of the ICC, a 2002 law bars extraditing anyone to the court, and sitting heads of government and U.N. representatives generally hold immunity while traveling to and from U.N. meetings. President Trump, for his part, posted last week that Netanyahu "will not be arrested, in any way, shape, or form, while in the United States of America."

The ICC and the War

The Hague-based court issued warrants in November 2024 for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, alleging crimes against humanity and the use of "starvation as a method of warfare" in Gaza. Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes. Netanyahu called the charges "bogus" on Sunday and pointed to the ICC's removal Friday of its chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, over sexual misconduct allegations, casting it as proof the case against him was a fabrication. "He pulled a con job on the international community with these bogus charges," Netanyahu said. Khan has denied the allegations.

The war that produced the warrants began with the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, which killed roughly 1,200 people in Israel and took about 250 hostages. Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the U.N. considers broadly reliable, says more than 73,000 people have been killed in the Israeli offensive since, roughly half of them women and children. Some of the most graphic early claims about October 7 that Netanyahu repeated Sunday, including that babies were beheaded, have been disputed and in some cases debunked.

A Shifting Political Backdrop

The confrontation unfolds against a measurable shift in American opinion, one that complicates Netanyahu's framing. He warned that once-bipartisan U.S. support for Israel is at risk as the party's left aligns with Mamdani, and cautioned against rising antisemitism. But polling suggests his claims about the mayor's standing among Jews do not hold up cleanly. A June AP-NORC survey of more than 1,000 Jewish adults found 44 percent viewed Mamdani favorably and 39 percent unfavorably, while only about a third viewed Netanyahu favorably against roughly six in ten unfavorably. A YouGov poll this week found 46 percent of Americans believed Netanyahu should be arrested, against 28 percent who did not.

The calls for arrest have also spread beyond Mamdani. Representative Ro Khanna of California said last week that the U.S. should cooperate with the ICC and arrest Netanyahu or Russia's Vladimir Putin if either entered American jurisdiction, framing it as "a matter of a rules-based international order." The Trump administration has rejected that view, noting the U.S. never ratified the treaty creating the court. Netanyahu was due in Washington this week to meet Trump and attend funeral services for the late Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime ally, before the U.N. gathering in September that is likely to bring the standoff with Mamdani to a head. "I intend to come and speak the truth," Netanyahu said, "from the podium of the United Nations."

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Taiwan President Urges Resistance To The “Red Terror” Of Beijing

• U.S. Hits Iran For 9th Night In A Row

• Trump Selects A New Path For Deportations

Taiwan President Urges Resistance To The “Red Terror” Of Beijing

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te speaks in Taipei, Taiwan, July 19, 2026 (Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

President Lai Ching-te told his party on Sunday that Taiwan must unite to protect its democracy and never allow itself to be absorbed by China, calling on members to stand against what he described as the "red terror" coming from Beijing. He delivered the line in Taiwanese, also known as Hokkien, rather than Mandarin, the main language of government.

Speaking at the annual convention of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei, Lai focused much of his address on a new Chinese law that took effect July 1 and that Taipei fears could be used to pursue Taiwanese citizens beyond China's borders. "We must work together to protect our democratic and free way of life, and absolutely never allow 'democratic Taiwan' to turn back and become 'China's Taiwan,'" he said.

The Speech

Lai, who is also DPP chairman and won election two years ago, urged party members to remain vigilant in peacetime. "I also expect comrades within the party to stand on the front lines, unite as one, and jointly oppose the threat posed by China's 'red terror' to Taiwanese society," he said.

He restated his standing position on the island's status, arguing that Taiwan is already an independent country under its constitutional name, the Republic of China, and is not subordinate to the People's Republic of China. "Regardless of ethnic group, regardless of who came earlier or later, anyone who identifies with Taiwan is a master of the country," he said. "Taiwan's future must be decided jointly by the 23 million people of Taiwan."

Reviewing a decade of DPP government, Lai said Taiwan had not backed down in the face of what he called authoritarian expansion, disinformation campaigns, military threats, and diplomatic pressure. "Taiwan has shown the world that democracy is not a weakness; democracy is strength," he said.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Beijing has repeatedly rebuffed Lai's calls for talks and labels him a separatist.

The Law at the Center of It

The specific target of Lai's warning was the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, passed by China's National People's Congress on March 12 and in force since July 1. Lai characterized it as a shift by the Chinese Communist Party from opposing Taiwanese independence toward pursuing forced unification under the banner of ethnic unity.

The statute places ethnic affairs policy under party leadership and directs government agencies, schools, media, businesses, religious organizations, and internet platforms to promote a state-defined Chinese national identity. One provision instructs authorities to expand exchanges with Taiwan and strengthen Taiwanese people's sense of belonging to what the law calls the Chinese nation, and to advance the position that people on both sides of the strait are Chinese.

The clause that alarmed Taipei is Article 63, which states that organizations and individuals outside China may be held legally responsible for conduct Beijing defines as damaging ethnic unity or creating ethnic division. The text does not specify penalties or how Chinese authorities would enforce such claims abroad. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry described the law as an attempt to use domestic legislation to exercise long-arm jurisdiction and transnational repression, and warned its broad wording could push people toward self-censorship. China has rejected all criticism of the law. Its legal system has no jurisdiction in Taiwan.

What Taipei Is Weighing

Lai said his government would build prevention strategies, countermeasures, and protection mechanisms, and deepen cooperation with other democracies, though he did not detail them.

DPP lawmakers have proposed a three-part resolution that would condemn the Chinese law, direct the government to review existing legal protections, penalize unlawful acts of assistance, strengthen travel risk warnings for China and other countries, and help citizens and organizations assess exposure. It identifies travelers, companies, academics, and civic groups as potentially at risk.

That resolution faces a divided legislature. Lai's DPP holds the presidency, but the opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party, both of which support eventual unification, control a legislative majority. An initial attempt to place the measure on the agenda failed July 3 when KMT and TPP lawmakers voted it down. It was later moved to a second reading and referred to cross-party negotiations on July 14, with plenary discussion listed for July 17 and July 21.

Officials have described steps already available. Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Yu-chung said his agency would work with the Foreign Ministry and overseas offices to assess risks in countries with legal assistance or extradition arrangements with China, and could raise travel advisories where warranted. Defense Minister Wellington Koo said personnel posted abroad already receive training in communications security and counter-surveillance. National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said the bureau was monitoring implementation of the law.

The Standing Dispute

The confrontation traces to an unfinished civil war. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing to Mao Zedong's communists, who founded the People's Republic. Neither government formally recognizes the other, and no peace treaty or armistice has ever been signed. Taiwan maintains its own elected government, military, currency, and legal system; Beijing claims the island and has not ruled out force.

The speech landed amid other signs of pressure. Taiwan's coast guard reported a sharp increase in Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island in June, prompting Taipei to plan drills simulating escalation off its Pacific coast. Taiwan's vice president has separately accused Beijing of working to suppress the island's diplomatic space, citing pressure in Papua New Guinea.

The broader stakes are economic as well as political. Taiwan produces a majority of the world's semiconductors and the overwhelming share of the most advanced chips, which is why a conflict in the strait draws attention far beyond the region. That backdrop has drawn scrutiny of Washington's posture: President Trump has publicly praised his relationship with Xi Jinping, and planned arms transfers to Taiwan have been held up as the administration works on relations with Beijing.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Longtime U.S. Senator Dies From Sudden Illness

• Ukrainian PM Departure Leads Government Shakeup

• Several Countries Rule Out Chinese Sovereignty Of South China Sea

Longtime U.S. Senator Dies From Sudden Illness

Sen. Lindsey Graham on June 16, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Graeme Sloan - Bloomberg via Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

Lindsey Graham was home in Washington on Saturday night, back from Kyiv, scheduled for a Sunday morning television appearance and a Senate return on Monday. Around 8:30 p.m., emergency crews were called to his Capitol Hill house for a man with chest pains. He went into cardiac arrest. Medics performed CPR and rushed him to George Washington University Hospital, where he was pronounced dead at 10:23 p.m. He was 71, and had turned that age two days earlier.

His office announced it at 2:02 a.m. Sunday, calling it a "brief and sudden illness" and asking for privacy. By Sunday evening the District's medical examiner had released preliminary findings: aortic dissection, a tear in the body's main artery, brought on by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The death certificate remains pending until toxicology and microscopic testing are complete.

The Final Hours

Graham had spent the week in Ukraine, his tenth visit since Russia's 2022 invasion, meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday and touring a drone facility. Video from those days showed no sign of anything wrong.

He called President Trump around 7 p.m. Saturday, an hour or so before the ambulance came. "He said, we're all set for the SAVE America Act," Trump recounted on NBC's "Meet the Press," the program Graham had been booked to appear on the next morning, for what would have been his 64th time. "He sounded a little tired, but perfect. Had a right to be. He was a worker." A senior Graham staffer told the network there had been no indication he felt unwell.

Trump ruled out foul play, though rumors ran fast enough on social media that the FBI's presence at the house drew attention. Director Kash Patel said the bureau was assisting local authorities. Metropolitan Police, which is leading the death investigation, said there was no sign of anything criminal. Graham's family had a history of heart trouble; his father died of a heart attack in his late 60s, leaving Graham, then a young man, to raise and later adopt his 13-year-old sister, Darline. He never married and had no children. She is his only immediate survivor.

A Career Built on Foreign Policy

Graham came out of Central, South Carolina, where his parents ran a restaurant and pool hall, the first in his family to attend college. He earned a law degree from the University of South Carolina, became an Air Force judge advocate, and served 33 years across active duty, the Reserve, and the state Air National Guard, retiring in 2015 as a colonel while sitting in Congress.

He entered the House in 1994 and reached the Senate in 2002, succeeding Strom Thurmond. He gained national attention as a House manager in Bill Clinton's 1998 impeachment. Later, alongside John McCain and Joe Lieberman, he became one of the "Three Amigos," a trio that traveled to war zones and pressed for an assertive American role abroad. Cindy McCain called him "a brother in service."

He was, until the end, Congress's most visible hawk. He pushed hard for military aid to Ukraine, backed Trump's war with Iran, and had long called for confronting Tehran. Russia put him on a wanted list in 2023; he said he'd wear it as a badge of honor. He was also among Israel's fiercest advocates. Netanyahu said Graham once argued against the prime minister's own proposal to phase out American military aid. "He went ballistic," Netanyahu recalled.

That record made him a polarizing figure. Critics on the antiwar right and the left saw him as the face of American interventionism. Iranian state television announced his death by telling viewers the "warmongering" senator had "gone to hell."

The Trump Relationship

The friendship that defined his last decade began as an open feud. Running against Trump in 2016, Graham called him a "race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot" and warned that nominating him would destroy the party. Trump read Graham's cellphone number aloud at a rally. Graham voted third-party that November.

Then it flipped. After Trump took office, Graham became one of his closest advisers and a regular golf partner. He explained the pivot in 2018 by invoking McCain, who he said taught him that after an election you have an obligation to help the president succeed. He defended Trump through two impeachments, broke with him on the Senate floor the night of January 6, 2021, saying "count me out," and was back within weeks.

By this year he was calling himself the president's "North Star." Trump, in interviews Sunday, called him "like a member of the family."

The Senate Math

Graham's death lands hard on a chamber Republicans are already struggling to control. It cuts their working majority to 51, with Mitch McConnell still hospitalized after a fall and unable to return to floor votes.

Graham chaired the Budget Committee, the perch from which Republicans have moved legislation through reconciliation to avoid the filibuster. Trump had been counting on him to steer a budget resolution that would let the SAVE America Act pass without Democratic votes. "This is a big blow to the SAVE America Act, let me tell you," Trump said. Next in line for the gavel is Charles Grassley, 92.

Graham was also a senior Judiciary Committee member as hearings begin this week on Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, where Republicans hold a two-seat margin and Thom Tillis has wavered. And there is the Russia sanctions package Graham had chased for years. He announced Friday in Kyiv that he'd reached agreement with the White House on it. Richard Blumenthal, who was with him, said Graham had been "as enthusiastic and exuberant as I've ever seen him." Representative Michael McCaul said the best way to honor him is to pass the bill.

The Scramble for the Seat

Graham had won the June primary with roughly 57 percent and was favored to win a fifth term in November. Because he died as the nominee, South Carolina law requires an expedited process: Governor Henry McMaster will appoint someone to serve out the term through January 3, and Republicans must pick a new nominee through a special primary. Filing runs July 21 to 28, with the primary August 11 and a runoff August 25 if needed. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, on November 3. The seat had been rated solid Republican.

Names surfaced within hours. Representative Nancy Mace said she would "be an idiot" not to look at it. Representative Ralph Norman is expected to announce Tuesday and has reportedly sought Trump's endorsement. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and Representative Russell Fry are also mentioned. Nikki Haley ruled herself out. Trump said he has a preference but won't name it yet. "It's too soon with Lindsey."

Andrews, his opponent, asked South Carolinians to set partisanship aside and thank him for his service. Roger Wicker, who knew him more than three decades, put it another way: "Lindsey Graham can be succeeded in office but he cannot be replaced."

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Mojtaba Khamenei Absent From Funeral Of His Father

• Pastor Freed From Prison In China After Trump Meeting With Xi

• Trump Decries Communism In 250th Anniversary Speech

Mojtaba Khamenei Absent From Funeral Of His Father

Iranian citizens mourn Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran on July 5, 2026 (AFP)

_{By: Atlas}

Three of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's sons stood beside his coffin in Tehran on Sunday as funeral prayers were read for the man who ruled Iran for nearly four decades. Missing was the fourth, and the most consequential: Mojtaba Khamenei, the son who succeeded him as supreme leader and who has not been seen in public since the airstrike that killed his father more than four months ago.

His absence hung over an event otherwise engineered to project strength. Iran has shut down much of the country for a six-day funeral that authorities are billing as the "funeral of the century," expecting well over ten million participants. But the one figure whose presence would have carried the most weight, the new leader himself, never appeared.

A Conspicuous Absence

Mostafa, Masoud, and Meysam Khamenei prayed behind their father's coffin at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla, the vast religious complex where the body has lain in state. Mojtaba was nowhere in sight, breaking with a tradition in which each successor leads the funeral prayers for his predecessor, a role analysts view as a way of cementing the legitimacy of a new leader.

He has been out of public view since February 28, when Israeli and U.S. strikes killed his father at the outset of the war. No photograph, audio, or video of him has surfaced in the months since. People close to his inner circle have said he was injured in the same attack, with a disfigured face and a significant wound to one or both legs, though Iranian officials have said there was no permanent disfigurement or amputation. He did not attend the funeral of his own wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, who was killed in the strike, held days earlier.

Iranian authorities are expected to justify his absence on security grounds. Yet the reasoning sits uneasily against the scene at the Mosalla, where virtually the entire senior leadership turned out. President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Revolutionary Guard chief Ahmad Vahidi, and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani all attended, appearing in the open in a way that would have been unthinkable during the war. Their presence suggested the government felt confident the ceasefire precluded an attack on the ceremony, which made the decision to keep Mojtaba away all the more notable.

That caution may be well founded. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz had said Mojtaba was "marked for death," and the armed forces issued a statement warning against any military action during the mourning. On the American side, Laura Loomer, a sometime confidante of President Trump, described the funeral on social media as a "target-rich environment."

A Spectacle of Grief and Revenge

The prayers, led by the 97-year-old Qom cleric Ayatollah Ja'far Sobhani, were for Khamenei and four relatives killed alongside him, including his daughter, his daughter-in-law, and his 14-month-old granddaughter, Zahra Mohammadi Golpayegani. The small size of the child's coffin was among the more striking sights at the ceremony.

By Sunday, the crowds were larger and more militant than on the opening day, when authorities unofficially claimed more than two million attended. Mourners waved red flags, a symbol of both martyrdom and vengeance in Shia Islam, under the official slogan "We must rise," set against an image of Khamenei's clenched fist. The metro system logged some seven million trips from Saturday night into Sunday morning as people streamed toward the center of the capital.

The mourning carried an explicit thread of vengeance aimed at the United States and Israel. At a poetry recitation before the prayers, Mohammad Rasouli declared that "Trump's murder is our responsibility," asking why "the most bastard man in the world" was still alive. His scripted remarks drew a mixed but largely cheering response. Banners in the crowd read "kill Trump" and "kill Bibi," a reference to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" echoed through metro stations and the funeral grounds.

The event drew Iran's regional allies as well. Delegations from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other groups in the Iran-backed "Axis of Resistance" attended, along with relatives of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped mediate between Iran and Washington, was among the most senior foreign officials present. European countries were reportedly not invited.

The War and Its Aftermath

The funeral was delayed for months by the war itself. Khamenei, 86, was killed on the first day of a conflict that raged for weeks before a shaky ceasefire took hold. More than 3,000 people died, including many of Iran's senior politicians and commanders, and strikes destroyed military bases and major infrastructure at a cost of billions of dollars.

Iran's leadership has framed the outcome as a victory. Officials point to Iranian strikes on U.S. bases in the region, the pressure placed on Gulf states hosting them, and Tehran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, which sent global energy prices climbing. An interim deal reached last month unfreezes billions in Iranian assets and waives financial sanctions that had crippled the economy. Talks on implementing that framework, and on the strait and Iran's nuclear program, appear to be on hold until after Thursday's burial. Trump told the Axios news website that Washington had granted Tehran "a week off" for the funeral.

Trump drew a sharp response from Iranians when he expressed surprise at the tears of mourners, saying, "I thought they hated him," and suggesting the grief might be "fake tears." One mourner, Zahra Safaei, 50, replied: "We did not make a revolution 47 years ago to shed fake tears. We did not sacrifice all these martyrs to shed fake tears."

What Comes Next

The ceremonies are choreographed to run for six days across two countries. After a mass procession through central Tehran on Monday, Khamenei's remains are to travel to the seminary city of Qom on Tuesday, then to the Shia holy cities of Najaf and Karbala in Iraq on Wednesday, before returning to Iran for burial Thursday in his birthplace of Mashhad. Authorities are mobilizing millions with free transport, food, and lodging, and have warned of the risk of crowd crushes, a concern rooted in the 1989 funeral of Ruhollah Khomeini, where at least eight mourners died and the military had to evacuate the body by helicopter.

Even as the processions unfolded, the region remained tense. A maritime monitor reported a cargo vessel under attack off Yemen's coast on Sunday, and the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump discussed Iran by phone, with Putin voicing hope that the indirect talks would yield lasting solutions.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Iraqi Forces Arrest Iranian Backed Officials & Politicians In Late Night Raid

• Tens Of Thousands Still Missing From Venezuelan Earthquakes

• Additional 1,000 Deaths Recorded In France Amidst Record Heat Wave

Iraqi Forces Arrest Iranian Backed Officials & Politicians In Late Night Raid

Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on May 14, 2026. (Iraqi Presidency Office via AP)

_{By: Atlas}

Iraqi security forces locked down Baghdad's fortified Green Zone overnight into Sunday, raiding the homes of lawmakers and senior officials and arresting dozens in the most aggressive phase yet of a corruption campaign led by the country's new prime minister.

By Sunday afternoon, authorities had detained 47 legislators and officials on corruption charges, a senior government official said through the state news agency, which described the operation as still in progress. Elite units from the Counter-Terrorism Service carried out the raids, moving between private residences inside the district where much of the political class lives.

The Operation

The Green Zone was sealed from late Saturday until the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. Residents reported armored vehicles and masked personnel near the entrances, and footage shared on local Telegram channels showed security forces in tanks and heavy vehicles operating inside the district, in one clip entering a private home.

The Green Zone houses Iraq's parliament, the Council of Ministers, the judiciary, and a number of foreign embassies, including the U.S. mission. A security source said Counter-Terrorism Service units conducted coordinated raids inside the zone and at some adjacent residences, with traffic halted and movement restricted until the operations wrapped up. The campaign extended beyond the district, reaching another neighborhood in the capital and, by some accounts, the headquarters of Midland Oil Company south of Baghdad.

Reports of the number detained varied through the day as the sweep unfolded. Early accounts placed the figure at seven or eight, including members of parliament whose immunity had been lifted, before the state news agency settled on 47. By dawn, checkpoints were gradually reopening, though security remained heavy around the main government compounds.

Who Was Detained

The arrests reached across Iraq's sectarian and political divides. The state news agency named 15 of those taken into custody. Among the most prominent was Muthanna al-Samarrai, a leading Sunni politician who heads the Azm Coalition in parliament, along with the businessman-turned-politician Mohammed al-Karbouli and Hassan al-Khafaji.

Several of those detained came from the Reconstruction and Development Coalition of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, including the legislators Alia Nusaif and Baha al-Nouri. Authorities also took in al-Sudani's relative and close aide Mohammed al-Sayhood and his adviser Ibrahim al-Sumaidie.

Also among those arrested was Ali Maarij al-Bahadly, Iraq's deputy oil minister for distribution affairs. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned him in May, accusing him of using his post to divert Iraqi oil and blend it with Iranian oil to help Tehran evade American sanctions.

The Reconstruction and Development Coalition publicly backed the government's actions, saying in a statement that its support rested on a firm belief in the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary, and on referring corruption cases to the courts away from political considerations.

A Widening Campaign

The raids mark the most assertive stage of an anti-corruption drive that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pursued since taking office last month. He has set up specialized investigative committees, empowered the Integrity Commission, and ordered a financial audit of major infrastructure contracts.

Much of the current case traces back to Adnan al-Jumaili, the former deputy oil minister for refining affairs and general director of the state-run North Refineries Company, who was arrested last month in a probe into alleged kickbacks and embezzlement tied largely to refinery contracts. Officials said the latest arrests were based on confessions he provided implicating a wider network. The Integrity Commission said authorities were carrying out judicial warrants against suspects accused of misappropriating public funds.

The financial figures attached to the Jumaili case are substantial. Authorities said they seized about $11 million in cash along with another 98 billion Iraqi dinars, worth roughly $63 million, and recovered around 1.5 kilograms of gold, at least 40 properties across Baghdad, Salahuddin, and Erbil, and large quantities of weapons and ammunition.

By deploying the Counter-Terrorism Service, a force that reports directly to the commander-in-chief, the government signaled it intended to bypass routine police procedures in cases viewed as politically sensitive. Iraqi officials have long said previous anti-graft efforts stalled because investigations rarely reached senior political or economic figures.

The Political Backdrop

The timing drew attention on several fronts. Al-Zaidi, a businessman and political newcomer, came to power as a consensus candidate with the backing of the United States, after al-Sudani stepped aside amid a deadlock within the Coordination Framework, the coalition of Shiite parties allied with Iran. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose own bid for the premiership was likely blocked by U.S. opposition, congratulated al-Zaidi on the arrests and offered support for efforts to establish justice.

The prime minister is due in Washington next month, and a diplomat in Baghdad described the sweep as part of the preparations for that visit, intended to demonstrate his commitment to his promises. Beyond corruption, a security official said the campaign also targeted the funding of armed factions and the smuggling of dollars and Iranian oil, a reference to Tehran-backed groups that Washington designates as terrorist organizations. The same official said U.S. pressure was central to the effort and that what had happened so far was only the beginning.

The raids coincided with a visit to Baghdad by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who pledged to expand Tehran's cooperation with the new government as it had with previous ones. They also came against the backdrop of renewed regional turmoil, with Iran having struck sites in Bahrain and Kuwait in response to U.S. airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz.

Al-Zaidi has paired his anti-corruption pledge with a vow to bring all weapons under state control, a goal that aligns with U.S. demands to disarm Iran-aligned militias. Those groups intervened on Tehran's behalf during the recent war, striking U.S. facilities in Iraq, including an ambush on American diplomats in Baghdad. As of Sunday afternoon, the government had issued no formal statement on the arrests, and the Supreme Judicial Council declined to comment on the number of warrants or the charges involved.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• V.P. Vance & Iranian Counterparts Agree To 60 Day Roadmap For Final Deal

• Rift Deepens Between Meloni & Trump After Cancelled Trip

• Colombian Presidential Candidate Backed By Trump Wins Election

V.P. Vance & Iranian Counterparts Agree To 60 Day Roadmap For Final Deal

U.S. Vice President JD Vance, right, meets with Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Switzerland, Sunday, June 21, 2026. (Nathan Howard - AP)

_{By: Atlas}

The United States and Iran emerged from their first round of talks in Switzerland with a roadmap toward a final agreement within 60 days, along with new mechanisms meant to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and end the fighting in Lebanon, the mediators announced Monday after roughly 18 hours of negotiations.

The talks, held at the Qatari-owned Bürgenstock resort above Lake Lucerne, had opened a day earlier under a cloud of threats and confusion. They closed with a joint statement from Qatar and Pakistan, the two mediating governments, describing a "positive and constructive atmosphere" and "encouraging progress," including a structure for the technical work still to come.

Vice President JD Vance led the U.S. delegation, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Iran was represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Vance had pushed his departure from Friday to the weekend over what aides called logistical issues.

What the two sides agreed to

Building on the memorandum of understanding signed last week in France, the parties set up a High-Level Committee to give the mediation political oversight. Chief negotiators are to report to it regularly and run working groups on three tracks: Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, and dispute resolution, along with monitoring of the deal's implementation.

They also created a de-confliction cell linking the United States, Iran, and Lebanon, run through the mediators, to lock in an end to military operations in southern Lebanon. A separate communication line is meant to head off incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and guarantee safe passage for commercial ships.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said the formal delegations had finished their work and that technical teams would carry the talks forward at Bürgenstock through the week. A text drawn up by Qatar and Pakistan is to lay out the points agreed during the session.

Iran claims early wins

Araghchi called the outcome "major progress." In a post on X, he said Tehran had secured waivers for its oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of the blockade on its ports, the release of some frozen assets, and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan for the country.

He singled out the Lebanon mechanism as the agreement's "first real test," a nod to the fear that continued fighting there could unravel everything else. Under the framework, Iran has tied real movement on the deeper issues, including its nuclear program, to a halt in the violence and to the economic relief it was promised.

A senior U.S. official described robust discussions across every element of the nuclear file and said the day's work would serve as the starting point for the technical rounds to follow. The official said part of the effort went toward, in his words, clearing up confusing messaging from Iran about the strait and setting up the deconfliction arrangements meant to keep it fully open.

The threats that hung over the room

The progress came despite a tense opening that nearly swallowed the talks. On Saturday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced it was again closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil moves, citing Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon. The U.S. military rejected the claim flatly, saying the waterway was open and that Iran does not control it.

The dispute showed up in the shipping data. Five vessels passed through the strait on Sunday, down from 26 the day before, a sharp drop that underscored how quickly traffic thins when Tehran signals trouble.

President Trump, who did not attend, escalated from Washington. "We'll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder," he wrote on Truth Social, demanding that Iran rein in its allies in Lebanon. In a phone interview he went further, warning that if Iran closed the strait it "won't have a country."

Iran answered in kind. Qalibaf said on X that Iran's armed forces were ready to respond and that "we are the ones who act." For a stretch on Sunday, Iranian state media said the delegation had recessed after what it called an insulting message from Trump, and one outlet reported a walkout. A U.S. official disputed that, saying both sides stayed at the table and expected to work through the night. The talks held.

Vance, for his part, played down the friction. "These things are always a little bit messy," he told reporters, adding that Trump had asked the team to "turn over a new leaf" with Iran.

Nuclear stockpile and an uneasy ceasefire

Even as the sides built out their committees, the hardest questions remain unsettled. Vance said negotiators were focused on securing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium to make it, in his words, "effectively impossible" for Tehran to rebuild a weapons program, and he warned that Washington kept substantial economic leverage if Iran failed to hold up its end.

Lebanon stayed the immediate flashpoint. A ceasefire announced Friday did little at first to stop the exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, neither of which is a party to the U.S.-Iran deal. By the time the Switzerland talks wrapped, the new deconfliction cell was being cast on both sides as the mechanism that would either hold the wider agreement together or expose its limits.

The mediators said they would keep working to move the negotiations toward a final deal and thanked Washington and Tehran for sticking with diplomacy. Technical teams remain at Bürgenstock, with the 60-day clock now running.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• President Announces Peace Deal With Iran

• Trump: FISA Re-Authorization Must Include SAVE America Act

• U.K. Forces Intercept Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker

President Announces Peace Deal With Iran

US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, US, on June 11, 2026 (Daniel Heuer - Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement on Sunday to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a breakthrough that, if it holds, would close out more than three months of fighting that killed thousands and convulsed the global economy.

Pakistan, which mediated the talks, announced the deal first. "Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote, saying both sides had agreed to the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." A signing ceremony is set for Friday in Switzerland.

President Trump confirmed the agreement minutes later. "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," he wrote, authorizing the toll-free reopening of the strait and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" He soon clarified that the waterway would not actually open until the deal is signed on Friday.

The announcement landed on Trump's 80th birthday, hours before he was set to host a UFC card on the White House grounds.

What the framework covers

The agreement, described by both sides as a memorandum of understanding rather than a formal treaty, lays out a sequence rather than a finished settlement. It provides for reopening the strait and lifting the blockade upon signing, with Iran agreeing not to pursue a nuclear weapon. The thornier questions, Iran's nuclear program and its frozen foreign assets, are pushed into a 60-day negotiating window that can be extended if the sides fall short.

Trump signaled no urgency on the nuclear file. "We'll get the nuclear dust later on when we're ready to go in and do it," he told the Wall Street Journal. "Over the next month or two, there's no rush." The deal does not require regime change.

The uranium question remains unresolved. By the International Atomic Energy Agency's count, Iran holds 440.9 kilograms, about 972 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent, a short technical step from weapons-grade. Tehran has not publicly committed to surrendering the stockpile, which is believed to sit beneath three nuclear sites heavily damaged in earlier U.S. strikes. Washington has at various points sought to have the material removed, with Russia offering to take it, or destroyed outright.

A strike that nearly derailed it

The deal almost came apart hours before it was announced. On Sunday morning, Israel, which has been sidelined from the talks, struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburbs, calling the attack a response to a Hezbollah strike on northern Israel the day before. Iran warned it was prepared to retaliate on behalf of its Lebanese ally, reviving fears that the agreement would collapse before it could be reached.

Trump publicly rebuked the Israeli strike, saying it should not have happened with a deal so close. He allowed that Israel had a right to defend itself but described the provocation as minor, noting that no one was killed, and urged all sides to hold their fire. "This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace," he wrote. "Let's not blow it!"

Iran's caution and its divisions

Iran confirmed the deal but kept its distance from Trump's triumphant framing. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on state television that Tehran would not begin implementing the agreement until it was signed Friday, and credited mediation by Qatar, whose negotiators left Tehran after a 17-hour session. Iranian state media cited the country's Supreme National Security Council as saying the war would end "immediately and permanently" and that the U.S. blockade would be lifted in full.

The agreement exposed strains inside Iran's government. President Masoud Pezeshkian called it a "disgrace" for anyone to stand before parliament and brand negotiators as traitors, and officials warned that public division at home weakened the country's hand. The political backdrop is unusually fraught: the war's opening strikes on Feb. 28 killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose son has since taken the post but has not appeared publicly since the fighting began. His approval was required for Iran to agree to the deal.

Criticism also came from within Trump's own party. Some Republicans argued the framework did not improve on the 2015 nuclear accord that Trump abandoned during his first term and has long called a bad deal.

The toll and what comes next

The conflict began on Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Iran answered with missiles and drones aimed at Israel and several Gulf states, and a ceasefire was reached in early April. About ten days later, the U.S. military imposed its blockade, and an earlier face-to-face meeting between Vice President JD Vance and Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, ended without a breakthrough.

The economic damage ran through the price of oil. Crude that traded near $57 a barrel in December had climbed above $114 by early April as the strait, a passage for a large share of the world's oil and gas, effectively closed and hundreds of vessels sat idle in the Gulf. Even with a deal, energy analysts cautioned that it could take months for shipping to normalize, as carriers and insurers wait to be sure the peace will last.

For now, the agreement appears to return the region to roughly where it stood before the war, but at a cost of thousands of lives and with Iran holding a new lever in its ability to influence traffic through the strait. International reaction was largely welcoming. The United Nations called it a critical step toward peace, while the leaders of Britain and France pledged to support the technical talks and the reopening of the waterway. Vance, who said he would attend Friday's signing, called the moment the possible start of a "new era" in the Middle East and predicted Iran would never obtain a nuclear weapon. Whether the framework survives the 60 days of negotiation ahead, and the unresolved fight over Iran's uranium, will determine if it does.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Iran Fires Retaliatory Strikes Against Israel For Lebanon Incursion

• U.S. Admin Explores Using Frozen Iranian Assets To Help Rebuild Gulf States

• Nigerian Army Frees 360 Boko Haram Captives

Iran Fires Retaliatory Strikes Against Israel For Lebanon Incursion

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One following a trip to Wisconsin on Friday. (Mark Schiefelbein - AP)

_{By: Atlas}

Iran launched missiles at Israel on Sunday, the first direct bombardment since a fragile ceasefire took hold in early April and a sharp turn toward the heavy fighting that mediators have spent weeks trying to prevent. Iran's state broadcaster confirmed the launches, and Tehran closed its western airspace in anticipation of an Israeli response.

The strikes followed an Israeli attack earlier in the day on the southern suburbs of Beirut, which Tehran had warned would cross a red line. Sirens sounded across several areas of Israel, sending residents to shelter. The Israeli military said it intercepted the missiles, reported multiple explosions in the north, and announced no casualties. Within an hour, it told people they could leave reinforced areas while staying close to shelter.

The Revolutionary Guard cast the launch as a warning rather than a full response. "Should these acts of aggression be repeated, the responses will be broader in scope and will encompass all American and Zionist targets throughout the region," the force said, pointing to events in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz.

A chain of strikes over one weekend

The sequence moved quickly. Hezbollah fired at northern Israel earlier Sunday. Israel answered by striking Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh, hitting a residential building. Lebanon's health ministry said two people were killed and 20 wounded.

That strike came only days after the United States, Israel, and Lebanon announced a ceasefire on June 3 built around security zones in southern Lebanon to be controlled by the Lebanese Armed Forces. Hezbollah was not party to the talks and rejected the terms, with one of its lawmakers dismissing the arrangement as meaningless.

The weekend's violence built on a strike a day earlier. Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Saturday killed nine people, among them three members of the Lebanese military. President Joseph Aoun called the attack a flagrant violation of Lebanon's sovereignty.

Israel signaled it was weighing a hard reply. "Iran has made a grave mistake," military spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said. The chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, said the military would strike "as soon as the order is given." National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted that "tonight Tehran must burn."

Trump presses both sides to stand down

President Donald Trump moved publicly to keep the exchange from widening, making clear he wanted no further blows from either capital.

"What I would suggest to Iran: You've shot your missiles, that's enough. Get back to the table and make a deal," Trump told Fox News. He described the attacks as "certainly not going to help negotiations" and said a deal could have been signed in the coming week had Iran not fired.

Trump also said he planned to call Netanyahu directly and urge restraint. "Both of them have already done their part," he said, according to an account of his remarks. "Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one." He noted the Iranian missiles caused no casualties and said he did not want the moment to derail a deal he considers close. Israel's public broadcaster reported that Trump told it he did not think Israel needed to respond further.

The president distanced himself from the Beirut strike, saying it was not coordinated with Washington and that he was unhappy about it. He had said earlier that he would prefer a "more surgical" approach against Hezbollah and that he was "not demanding" Lebanon be folded into a broader settlement. In separate comments, Trump said Netanyahu "won't have any choice" but to accept a U.S.-brokered deal because the American president "calls the shots."

U.S. Central Command said its forces in the region remained "vigilant and ready," and the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem directed personnel and their families to shelter in place.

Disruption ripples across the region

The launches reverberated well beyond the front lines. Iraq's civil aviation authority closed the country's airspace for 72 hours, and Syria announced a 12-hour closure. All flights from Tehran's main international airport were suspended.

Inside Israel, authorities imposed a restricted activity policy through Monday evening. Schools were closed, beaches shut, and gatherings capped, with workplaces allowed to operate only where employees could reach shelter in time.

Markets felt the strain as well. Oil prices climbed amid the exchange of fire, with the U.S. national average for regular gasoline at $4.17 a gallon. Iran has continued to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz while the United States maintains a blockade of Iranian ports, snarling shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer.

A deal still hanging in the balance

The flare-up landed in the middle of negotiations both sides describe as nearly complete. The war began on Feb. 28, and Iran says any settlement must include an end to the fighting in Lebanon, a condition Hezbollah backs.

Economic relief has emerged as the central sticking point. An Iranian official has described a memorandum of understanding whose first phase would unlock $12 billion in frozen assets and lift the naval blockade, with another $12 billion to follow. Trump said the United States would not release sanctions or assets up front, telling NBC that talks advance only "if they behave." A diplomat familiar with the negotiations said the frozen funds would not move until Iran begins surrendering its highly enriched uranium, a core American demand.

Trump framed the choice for Tehran in stark terms, saying a deal would come through negotiation or through military force. Mediators including Pakistan, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey continued working the phones. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with counterparts across the region, while Pakistan's interior minister carried a message to Iran's leadership in Tehran.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Pro U.S. Presidential Candidate In Colombia Pulls Ahead

• Israeli PM Warns Of Further Breaches Into Lebanon To Fight Hezbollah

• Zelensky Calls For Higher Pressure On Russia

Pro U.S. Presidential Candidate In Colombia Pulls Ahead

Colombia's presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, of the Defensores de la Patria party, in Medellin, Colombia on May 24, 2026. (Jaime Saldarriaga - AFP Via Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly led the first round of Colombia's presidential election on Sunday, setting up a June 21 runoff against leftist Senator Iván Cepeda and producing the most consequential rightward shift in Colombian electoral politics in years.

With nearly all of the votes counted, De la Espriella, a 47-year-old lawyer and political newcomer running as the candidate of the Defensores de la Patria movement, took 43.7 percent of the vote. Cepeda, a long-time senator and ally of outgoing President Gustavo Petro, finished with roughly 41 percent. The two candidates were separated by less than three percentage points, or about 668,000 votes. Neither cleared the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright.

The first-round result reversed pre-election polling that had consistently shown Cepeda comfortably ahead. The biggest surprise of the night was the collapse of Paloma Valencia, the conservative Centro Democrático senator who had been polled as De la Espriella's closest challenger and the heir to former President Álvaro Uribe's political movement. Valencia took less than 7 percent of the vote and conceded shortly after, endorsing De la Espriella. Uribe followed with his own endorsement.

Turnout was modest, with roughly 58 percent of Colombia's 41 million eligible voters casting ballots, according to the country's National Civil Registry.

Two Sharply Different Paths

The race has narrowed to a choice between two diametrically opposed visions for resolving Colombia's six-decade internal conflict. De la Espriella, who refers to himself as "El Tigre," the Tiger, has pitched himself as an outsider modeled on Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. He has pledged to build ten "mega-prisons" in the jungle, deepen military cooperation with the United States, conduct U.S.-backed strikes on cartel infrastructure, and significantly shrink the size of the Colombian state.

Cepeda, 63, is the son of a slain communist leader and one of the architects of the "total peace" strategy pursued by Petro, which has prioritized negotiations and ceasefires with armed groups over military intervention. Cepeda has said he would continue that approach if elected, while expanding the country's social spending. He has proposed raising taxes on high-income earners, expanding healthcare coverage, and transferring roughly 1 million hectares of land to victims of the internal conflict.

The contrast on security is the sharpest. Petro's "total peace" approach has produced limited results during his single term: cocaine production has hit a record high, membership in armed groups has expanded, and violence along the country's borders has surged. The administration counters that it has seized the largest volume of drugs in Colombian history and lifted the minimum wage significantly during Petro's term. About one in three Colombians remains in poverty.

The race has also been marked by direct violence. Last June, the 39-year-old presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay was shot and killed at a campaign rally. Armed groups have launched drone strikes during the campaign, and several polling places on Sunday were guarded by armed soldiers.

The Trump Dimension

De la Espriella's strong showing has been read in part as a function of his proximity to U.S. President Donald Trump's regional posture. Trump did not formally endorse a candidate, but several senior Republicans in Washington made their preference clear in the days leading up to the vote. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida publicly endorsed De la Espriella. Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, who has emerged as a leading congressional voice on Latin America policy, said at an Atlantic Council event last week that Colombia's election would be "pivotal" and added: "We've seen one way, and we just had to take military action in Venezuela to fix that." Moreno traveled to Colombia as an international election observer.

Both Moreno and Salazar congratulated De la Espriella after the first-round results. Rep. Carlos Giménez of Florida did the same.

The U.S. dimension is overlaid on a broader regional realignment. Trump's administration has taken the most assertive posture toward Latin America of any in decades, capturing Venezuela's deposed leader Nicolás Maduro in a military operation, conducting strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, imposing an oil blockade on Cuba, and launching a "Shield of the Americas" security alliance with right-leaning governments in the region. Right-leaning governments have come to power in Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, and El Salvador over the past two years.

The election also intersected with a brewing dispute between Bogotá and Quito. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, who had imposed tariffs on Colombia over what he said was insufficient border cooperation, announced that he had reached an agreement with De la Espriella to drop the tariffs effective June 1. Colombia's foreign ministry accused Noboa of "deliberate interference" in the Colombian election.

Cepeda and Petro Question the Count

The opening hours after polls closed produced an unusual contest over the integrity of the count itself. Cepeda declined to immediately concede the first round, saying his campaign had received reports of "atypical voting" at an unspecified number of polling stations. "Only when the vote-counting commissions have fully clarified what happened will we comment on tonight's results," he said in Bogotá. He later claimed that his campaign had "secured 10 million votes that were miscounted."

Petro went further, posting on X that he did not "accept the preliminary count results" and alleging that the software used by private contractors to process tally sheets had been compromised. He said 800,000 ID numbers had been added to the system representing voters not on the official census, without providing evidence. He also accused unspecified foreign actors of having manipulated the results.

Hernán Penagos, the head of the National Civil Registry, said earlier this year that the preliminary count system reached 99.8 percent precision in the March congressional elections. The NGO Electoral Observation Mission, which deployed monitors across the country, received 370 complaints in the run-up to the vote, mostly relating to political propaganda near the 13,489 polling stations. Juanita Goebertus, the Americas director of Human Rights Watch, called Colombia's electoral system "independent and trustworthy" and said it was "regrettable that the president is sowing unjustified doubts."

De la Espriella rejected Cepeda's posture from a stage in Barranquilla, addressing supporters from behind bulletproof glass and referring to his rival as Petro's "puppet." "Let the United States of America and democratic parties monitor this runoff election," he said. "I will lead this battle; I will be Colombia's best warrior."

The Path to June 21

The numerical map heading into the runoff favors De la Espriella. With Valencia's roughly 7 percent of right-leaning voters now formally aligned behind his candidacy, and centrist candidates Sergio Fajardo and Claudia Lopez each finishing in the low single digits, the consolidated center-right vote could push De la Espriella well past the 50 percent threshold in three weeks. Cepeda's path to victory rests on persuading first-round abstainers to vote and on holding the support of the broader left, which split among several smaller candidates.

The result will also have meaningful implications for the United States and for Colombia's neighbors. Cepeda, like Petro, has said that Colombia must not become a "vassal state" to the United States. De la Espriella has said he would deepen U.S. security cooperation, accept American support for cartel strikes, and align Colombia more closely with the Trump administration. The runoff will be held on June 21. The winner is expected to take office on August 7.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Rubio Seeks Stronger Ties In 1st Official Trip To India

• Trump On Iran Deal: No Rush

• Hypersonic Missile Used In Latest Russian Attack On Ukraine

Rubio Seeks Stronger Ties In 1st Official Trip To India

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, walks to shake hands with India's Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar in New Delhi, India, Sunday, May 24, 2026. (Manish Swarup - AP)

_{By: Atlas}

Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in India on Saturday for his first official visit to the country, a four-day trip designed to repair a U.S.–India relationship that has been bruised by tariffs, Iran war diplomacy, and Washington's growing engagement with both Pakistan and China.

Rubio landed in Kolkata on Saturday morning, visited the Missionaries of Charity, and traveled on to New Delhi for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. He is also scheduled to visit Agra and Jaipur before the Quad foreign ministers' meeting in the Indian capital on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump made a surprise live call into a U.S. Embassy event in Delhi marking America's 250th Independence Day. "I love India and their Prime Minister," he told the room. "PM Modi is great, he is my friend. ... We have never been closer to India, and India can 100 percent count on me and our country." Rubio extended an invitation on Trump's behalf for Modi to visit the White House.

"The breadth and scope of the list of issues we work together with India on highlights that India is one of the most important strategic partnerships of the United States in the world," Rubio said at a joint press conference at Hyderabad House on Saturday. Jaishankar said the two sides had discussed "the entire spectrum" of bilateral ties, including trade and energy, defense and security, critical minerals and artificial intelligence, nuclear cooperation, and counterterrorism.

Energy and the Strait of Hormuz

Energy dominated the working agenda. India imports more than 80 percent of its energy needs, and nearly half of its crude oil shipments typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that Iran has effectively closed since the war began on February 28. The strait carried about a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas before the conflict.

Rubio told reporters that progress had been made over the previous 48 hours on an outline that could help resolve the situation around the strait, and said there was a possibility of "good news" within hours. He reiterated that Iran could not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon and called attacks on commercial vessels "totally illegal."

The U.S. side used the visit to pitch American energy as a long-term substitute for India's existing supply mix. Rubio told Modi that "U.S. energy products have the potential to diversify India's energy supply" and that "the United States will not let Iran hold the global energy market hostage." Rubio said this weekend that India had committed to buy $500 billion in U.S. goods over the next five years, with a focus on energy, technology, and agriculture, building on an interim trade agreement reached in February.

Jaishankar said the United States had emerged as "a reliable energy source for India." Delhi has been weighing the practical limits of that pitch. U.S. shipments are a longer and more expensive route than supplies from the Gulf or Russia, and Washington has so far granted India a waiver on its purchases of Russian oil.

Trade Friction and the Tariff Reset

Rubio's trip comes against the backdrop of a year of trade turbulence. Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs as high as 50 percent on Indian goods last year before lowering them to 18 percent in February as part of the interim agreement. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in late February struck down the broader tariffs, which effectively brought the duty rate on Indian goods down to 10 percent. The two sides have yet to finalize a comprehensive trade deal.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $58.2 billion in 2025, a 27.1 percent jump from the year before. Trump has cited that gap as a central irritant in the relationship and has pressed Delhi to buy more American energy, aircraft, technology, and agricultural products. Indian exports to the United States rose 0.9 percent in the fiscal year ended March 2026 to $87.3 billion, and an additional $8.5 billion in goods shipped to the United States in April as the lower tariffs took effect.

Jaishankar said the two sides had discussed concluding the broader bilateral trade deal at an early date and the visa challenges faced by Indian workers. Richard Rossow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the absence of a final trade agreement "more than three months after the announcement of the 'interim deal'" continued to "cloud other areas of engagement."

Pakistan, China, and the Quad

Rubio's visit also has to navigate friction over Washington's recent regional posture. Trump has publicly called Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir his "favorite field marshal," and Islamabad has emerged as the lead mediator in the Iran war negotiations. Trump has also repeatedly claimed he brokered the end of last year's brief India-Pakistan conflict — a claim Delhi has consistently rejected, citing its longstanding policy of refusing third-party mediation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

Trump's state visit to Beijing earlier this month also rattled Indian officials, who watched the warm reception Trump received and the new "constructive relationship of strategic stability" framework that emerged from the trip. Basant Sanghera, a former State Department South Asia policy expert now at The Asia Group, said Trump's approach had "created a perfect storm of anxiety" in Delhi, "but ties have stabilized and both sides are trying to build momentum in the areas that there is convergence."

The Quad foreign ministers' meeting on Tuesday — bringing together the United States, India, Japan, and Australia — is the centerpiece of Rubio's trip. A leaders' summit was originally expected last year but was postponed amid lukewarm interest from Trump, and some analysts have argued the grouping has been on "life support." Rossow described the upcoming foreign ministers' gathering, the third such meeting without a corresponding leaders' summit, as effectively an "unannounced downgrade" of the format. Delhi is hoping a leaders' summit can still take place in India later this year, and is also preparing to host a BRICS summit in September.

A Personal Reset Attempt

The visit is also being used to recalibrate the personal channels between the two governments. U.S. Ambassador Sergio Gor, a friend of Trump's and a former White House adviser who arrived in Delhi in January, has spent his first months in post working to reset ties; Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council has called him "the India whisperer." Rubio also dedicated a new consular wing at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi during the visit. "Every visa decision is a national security decision," he wrote on X.

Modi, in his readout of the Saturday meeting, said the two leaders had discussed "issues related to regional and global peace and security" and reiterated India's "support for peaceful resolution of conflict through dialogue and diplomacy." He did not mention Iran by name. Rubio will travel on to Agra and Jaipur over the next two days before returning to Delhi for the Quad ministers' meeting on Tuesday.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

• Ukraine Launches 600 Drones Towards Russia, Strikes Moscow

• World Health Org. Declares Outbreak In Congo & Uganda

Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC on May 15 (AFP)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump renewed his ultimatum to Iran on Sunday, warning that the ruling regime is running out of time to accept a peace deal and threatening a sharper round of U.S. strikes if Tehran does not come back with a better offer.

"For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In a phone interview with Axios, Trump pressed the same line. "We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there, or they will be hit badly, and they don't want that," he said. If Iran does not produce a more acceptable proposal soon, he said, the United States will hit it "much harder than before."

Trump declined to set a public deadline. He said he was still waiting on a revised Iranian offer after publicly dismissing the last one as "garbage."

The war, opened by joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has been on an indefinite ceasefire for weeks. Skirmishes in and around the Strait of Hormuz have kept it frayed.

Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant

The renewed pressure came hours after a drone hit the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, the United Arab Emirates' only nuclear power station. The drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter, igniting a fire on the facility's grounds but causing no casualties.

The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones entered Emirati airspace from the western border. Two were intercepted; one got through. Radiation levels at the plant remained normal, and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed there was no impact on radiological safety. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called for "maximum military restraint" near any nuclear site.

UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan told Grossi the country has the right to respond to what he called "terror attacks" on the plant. The UAE has not formally named a suspect. Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomatic adviser, was more pointed, writing on X that the attack — "whether carried out directly by the principal actor or through one of its proxies" — was a "dangerous escalation."

Iran has not claimed the strike. It is the first time the $20 billion South Korean-built plant has been targeted in the war. The UAE has accused Iran of launching at least two other attacks on its territory this month, including a missile and drone barrage that set fire to an oil refinery in Fujairah after Trump launched Project Freedom, the U.S. effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pentagon Planning and a Call to Netanyahu

Trump spent the weekend in war-planning mode. On Saturday, he convened members of his national security team at his Virginia golf club. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were among those at the table.

On Sunday morning, Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Our eyes are also open regarding Iran," Netanyahu told his cabinet earlier in the day. "There are certainly many possibilities, and we are prepared for every scenario." Israeli and U.S. officials have begun coordinating on the option of resuming the air campaign against Iran.

Trump is expected to bring his top national security officials into the Situation Room on Tuesday for a formal review of military options. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers in recent days that the Pentagon has an escalation plan ready.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, made the case for renewed strikes on NBC's "Meet the Press." "What President Trump has done has been amazing militarily, but there are more targets to be had, and there are things we can do to hurt Iran," Graham said.

Diplomacy Stalled but Not Dead

The formal diplomatic channel is being run by Pakistan, with Qatar mediating in parallel. Pakistan's interior minister visited Tehran on Saturday and Sunday for talks with senior Iranian officials. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke Sunday with both his Pakistani counterpart and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

"The clock on diplomacy has not stopped. The peace process is working," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad.

Araghchi has said Iran would welcome diplomatic help from other countries, including China. Trump told Fox News that Chinese President Xi Jinping offered help during last week's Beijing summit, but Beijing has shown little public appetite for taking on the role.

U.S. intelligence assessments shared with Israeli officials indicate Tehran is pursuing a strategy of "deception and delay," gambling that stretching the crisis past several upcoming events — including the World Cup and the United States' 250th anniversary — will make a renewed military campaign politically harder for Trump.

Pressure Builds on the Ground

The economic pressure on Iran is becoming visible. A senior Israeli official said early signs of a fuel crisis emerged over the weekend, with long lines at gas stations and public complaints over shortages and distribution problems. "It's getting exponentially worse," the official said.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Iran has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which it shut at the start of the war. Brent crude rose more than 2 percent on Sunday evening, trading at roughly $111 a barrel as the talks impasse and the UAE attack hit the screens.

Iranian state television, meanwhile, has been broadcasting unusual scenes. Two anchors appeared on air armed over the weekend, with one miming a shot at a UAE flag and the other declaring she was ready to die for the country. The on-air messaging, paired with public reluctance to back down on the nuclear file, is consistent with the assessment that Tehran is bracing for the campaign to resume.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump: Latest Iran Proposal ‘Totally Unacceptable’

• Russian President Alludes To End Of War With Ukraine

• Macron Embarks On Africa Summit In Kenya

Trump: Latest Iran Proposal ‘Totally Unacceptable’

President Trump (AFP via Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the war Sunday, calling it "totally unacceptable" in a Truth Social post and accusing Tehran of "playing games with the United States" for nearly half a century.

The Iranian reply, delivered through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif earlier in the day, did not engage directly with the centerpiece of Washington's 14-point framework: rolling back Iran's nuclear program. Iranian state media said Tehran's counter-proposal focused on ending hostilities across the region, securing the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and releasing seized Iranian assets — deferring the more contentious nuclear file to a later phase of talks.

"I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'Representatives,'" Trump wrote. "I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Two hours earlier, he posted that Iran "has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years. They will be laughing no longer!"

Iranian state television went further, characterizing the U.S. text itself as a demand for surrender and saying Tehran was insisting instead on "war reparations by the U.S., full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of seized Iranian assets."

The exchange leaves the negotiating track at its most exposed point since the April 8 ceasefire took hold. Oil jumped roughly $3 a barrel as Asian markets opened Monday. National average gasoline prices in the U.S. stood at $4.52 a gallon Sunday, up roughly 50 percent from pre-war levels.

What was on the table

Washington's 14-point proposal was delivered to Tehran last week, also through the Pakistani channel. Under its terms, Iran would commit to never developing a nuclear weapon and would suspend all uranium enrichment for at least 12 years. It would also be required to surrender its estimated 440-kilogram stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a technical step from weapons-grade, with no civilian application.

In return, the United States would gradually lift sanctions, release billions in frozen Iranian assets, and end the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The proposed structure called for a one-page agreement formally ending the fighting, followed by a 30-day window to negotiate the harder issues.

Iran's counter-proposal effectively reordered that sequence. An official Iranian source described the response to Al Jazeera as "realistic and positive," saying it covered "ending the war throughout the region, especially in Lebanon, and resolving differences with Washington," and that "negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear programme, and the lifting of sanctions" would follow. The source added: "Washington's positive response to our response will move the negotiations forward quickly. The choice now lies with Washington."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian framed the posture on X: "We will never bow our heads before the enemy. If talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat. Rather, the goal is to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and to defend national interests with resolute strength."

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told ABC on Sunday that Trump was giving diplomacy "every chance we possibly can before going back to hostilities."

The nuclear sticking point

Trump made clear on Sunday that the uranium stockpile remains his central red line. In a separate interview with Sharyl Attkisson released the same day, he said taking control of Iran's enriched material is his top priority.

"We'll get that at some point," Trump said. "We have it surveilled. You know, I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching. If somebody walked in, they can tell you his name, his address, the number of his badge. We have that very well surveilled. If anybody got near the place, we will know about it, and we'll blow them up."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in excerpts of a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday night, said the war is "not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran." He said the issue had been discussed directly with Trump. "Trump has said to me, 'I want to go in there,' and I think it can be done physically."

Iran has signaled it is prepared for that scenario. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia, an army spokesman, told IRNA that Iranian forces are on "full readiness" to defend sites where uranium is stored. "We considered it possible that they might intend to steal it through infiltration operations or heli-borne operations," he said.

The bulk of Iran's 60-percent stockpile is believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex, which was struck during the opening days of the February 28 campaign and has been hit by additional U.S. and Israeli strikes since. The most recent IAEA inspection of the Bushehr reactor was August 27, 2025. A separate concern, raised in recent days by nonproliferation analysts, is the plutonium pathway through Bushehr's spent fuel, which Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center has argued could yield material for more than 200 weapons.

A Russian offer to take custody of Iran's enriched uranium remains on the table. Vladimir Putin reiterated Saturday that Moscow's proposal stands.

A weekend of fire

The diplomatic exchange unfolded against another round of incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz that left the ceasefire visibly strained but, as of Sunday, formally intact.

A bulk carrier was struck by an unidentified projectile in Qatari waters early Sunday, igniting a small fire that was quickly extinguished. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center confirmed the strike but did not identify the vessel's ownership. Qatar's Foreign Ministry called it "a dangerous and unacceptable escalation."

The United Arab Emirates intercepted two drones it said had been launched by Iran. Kuwait's military reported "a number of hostile drones" detected in its airspace overnight and engaged them under standing protocols. South Korea, separately, said two unidentified objects struck the South Korean-operated HMM NAMU about a minute apart while the vessel was anchored in the strait last week, causing an explosion and fire. The investigation has not yet identified who was responsible.

U.S. Central Command struck two Iranian oil tankers Friday after the vessels attempted to breach the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which has been in place since April 13. CENTCOM says it has turned back 61 commercial vessels and disabled four since the blockade began. Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy has warned any further strikes on Iranian-flagged tankers would trigger a "heavy assault" on U.S. bases and allied shipping in the region.

Iran's army has also announced what it calls a "new legal and security system" for the strait, requiring any vessel transiting the waterway to coordinate with Iranian authorities. Akraminia said the system is "now in force." A U.S.-led draft U.N. Security Council resolution co-sponsored with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar demands Iran cease attacks, mining, and the imposition of transit tolls. A similar resolution last month was vetoed by Russia and China.

What happens next

Trump's rejection was not paired with a concrete next step. Over the weekend he warned he was prepared to launch "Project Freedom Plus" — an expanded version of the Navy-escorted shipping operation he announced May 3 and which has since been paused — if Iran failed to engage. He also raised the prospect of a return to direct military operations, telling reporters last week that the world would see "one big glow" out of Iran if no deal was reached.

A senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, Abbas Aslani, said Iran's reply was not a "yes or no response" but a clarification of how Tehran reads the U.S. text. "If they can reach a kind of peace agreement at the initial stage, that could create a positive atmosphere and a trust-building measure somehow. But if the US wants to continue its demands, like Iran exporting its highly enriched uranium to the US or suspending enrichment for a long time, I think this could make any agreement impossible."

Al Jazeera's Kamal Hyder, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistan is pushing Tehran toward "a middle ground" and that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China have been in active contact with Iranian officials on the mediation track. "The next few days will be critical," Hyder said.

Trump leaves Wednesday for Beijing, where Iran is expected to be one of the central topics in his two-day summit with Xi Jinping. White House officials previewing the visit said Trump has spoken with Xi multiple times about Chinese leverage over Iran, including the revenue Beijing provides through its purchases of Iranian crude and the dual-use components that move through Chinese ports. China consumes nearly all of Iran's exportable oil and remains the most important external actor capable of moving Tehran on terms.

For now, the negotiations are formally still open. Neither side has declared the ceasefire dead. But Trump's Sunday post — "totally unacceptable" — leaves the diplomatic track in a position where one more exchange of fire, or one more failed counter-proposal, could close it.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump: U.S. Will Guide ‘Neutral’ Ships Out Of Strait Of Hormuz

• Ukraine Launches Heavy Attack Against Russian Port & Tankers

• U.S. Service Members Missing After War Games Exercise In Morocco

Trump: U.S. Will Guide ‘Neutral’ Ships Out Of Strait Of Hormuz

President Donald Trump (Maxine Wallace - The Washington Post)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the United States will begin guiding stranded commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday morning, Middle East time, in an initiative he labeled "Project Freedom" and framed as a humanitarian gesture toward ships that have been stuck in the waterway since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said countries with no role in the conflict had asked the United States for help freeing vessels trapped in the strait. "Countries from all over the world, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly and violently for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!" Trump wrote.

"For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business," he added. The president warned that any interference with the operation "will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully."

The announcement landed as Trump publicly weighed a fourteen-point peace proposal Iran submitted over the weekend through Pakistani mediators. Trump said Saturday that he was "not satisfied" with the offer and that Tehran had "not yet paid a big enough price" — but on Sunday struck a more measured tone, writing that his representatives were having "very positive discussions" with Iran and that the talks "could lead to something very positive for all."

The military footprint

U.S. Central Command moved within hours to publicly back the operation. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said in a statement that forces would begin supporting Project Freedom on May 4 to "restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz."

The committed assets are substantial. CENTCOM said the supporting force will include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, in place for three weeks as the Navy continues to de-mine the strait, will continue in parallel.

The mechanics of the operation appear narrower than initial framing suggested. Two American officials indicated that U.S. Navy vessels will not necessarily escort commercial ships through the strait. Instead, Navy assets will remain "in the vicinity" to deter Iranian military action, while the Navy provides commercial captains with information on the safest maritime lanes — particularly those not seeded with Iranian mines.

The State Department announced a complementary diplomatic track last week, the Maritime Freedom Construct, designed to coordinate maritime security efforts with international partners. CENTCOM said the construct "aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination."

Operational analysts have flagged real constraints. Jonathan Hackett, a retired Marine Corps special operations specialist, said the U.S. Navy lacks the assets to escort the hundreds of vessels stranded in or seeking to transit the strait. "There are only about 12 Navy vessels that could actually conduct some kind of defense of these ships," Hackett said, noting that more than 100 transits per day moved through the strait before the war. He also pointed to the disposal of dedicated U.S. mine-sweeping vessels last year, leaving only retrofitted assets capable of limited mine-clearance work, and questioned whether commercial insurers would underwrite passages without ironclad guarantees of safety.

Iranian response

Tehran's reaction was swift and unambiguous. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of Iran's Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, warned that any U.S. action in the strait would be treated as a breach of the existing ceasefire.

"Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire," Azizi wrote in a translated post on X. "The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts!" He added that "the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric."

Iranian officials had earlier circulated draft legislation that would permanently bar Israeli vessels from the strait and deny transit rights to nations Tehran deems "hostile" through alliance with Washington. Iranian lawmakers have signaled that the strait will not return to its prewar status under any circumstances.

Two maritime incidents in close succession on Sunday reinforced the tension. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been hit by what it described as "unknown projectiles." All crew were reported safe, and no environmental damage was recorded. Earlier in the day, a bulk carrier reported being attacked by multiple small craft approximately eleven nautical miles west of Sirik on the Iranian coast.

The diplomatic track

Iran's fourteen-point proposal, delivered through Pakistani channels over the weekend, attempts to break the strategic deadlock. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that the plan is structured in two phases: a first phase focused exclusively on ending the war and reaching an agreement, followed by a second phase — to be conducted within thirty days — addressing implementation and the more complex underlying issues, including the nuclear file and the future of the strait.

Baghaei rejected characterizations of the thirty-day window as a deadline. "Iran is not negotiating under pressure and not negotiating under ultimatums," he said, describing the period as a sequence of phases rather than a countdown. He also indicated that Iran's guarantees in any agreement would derive "from its own power and leverage" — a formulation Iranian analysts have linked to Tehran's continued ability to influence movement through the strait.

The reported terms of the Iranian proposal would, if accepted, lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, end the war, and resolve the parallel conflict in Lebanon. Washington sent another amended draft agreement back to Tehran on Sunday in response.

Trump's domestic legal posture has shifted in parallel. On Friday, he formally notified Congress that the war had been "terminated," seeking to sidestep a sixty-day War Powers Act deadline for congressional authorization. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee a day earlier that the administration considered the deadline paused by a temporary ceasefire — a legal theory that Democrats and outside legal scholars have dismissed.

Markets and political stakes

The Strait of Hormuz has now been effectively closed to commercial traffic for more than two months, with substantial economic consequences. Roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products move through the waterway in normal periods. Benchmark oil prices reached a four-year high on Thursday, and the average price at the pump for American drivers reached $4.45 a gallon on Sunday — up roughly 35 cents over the past week.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, appearing on ABC's "This Week" Sunday morning, said his briefings indicated that prices would respond rapidly to any reopening. "From all the briefings that I've had, once the strait opens, you'll see prices come down immediately," Duffy said, while acknowledging it would take time to return to prewar levels.

Stranded crews — many from India and other countries in South and Southeast Asia — have spent weeks aboard vessels in the Persian Gulf, with some reporting low supplies of drinking water, food, and basic provisions. Several have described watching intercepted drones and missiles explode over the surrounding waters.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz framed the operation as a defense of freedom of navigation rather than a unilateral provocation. "Regardless of how you feel about the conflict over their nuclear program, Iran laying sea mines indiscriminately in international waters and attempting to 'toll' civilian commercial shipping is illegal and unacceptable," Waltz wrote. He warned that allowing the precedent to stand would have implications well beyond Hormuz, citing the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Gibraltar as parallel chokepoints where the principle would matter.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• D.C. Gala Ends With Failed Trump Assassination

• Iranian Foreign Minister Returns To Pakistan For U.S. Peace Talks

• Mali’s Defense Chief Killed After Coordinated Attack By Rebels

D.C. Gala Ends With Failed Trump Assassination

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference on April 25, 2026. (Andrew Leyden - Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

A 31-year-old California man stormed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton on Saturday night and opened fire just outside the ballroom where President Donald Trump, the first lady, the vice president, and most of the cabinet were attending the White House Correspondents' Association dinner. Trump was rushed off the dais and out of the room. No guests were hurt. A Secret Service officer was hit at close range and survived because of his ballistic vest.

The suspect has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen of Torrance, California. He was tackled by Secret Service agents on the terrace level of the hotel after charging past a magnetometer with a shotgun, a handgun, and multiple knives. He was not shot. He was taken into custody and transported to a hospital for evaluation. He is expected to face federal charges Monday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, including assault of a federal officer, discharging a firearm in the commission of a crime of violence, and attempting to kill a federal officer.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, speaking Sunday on multiple network programs, said the available evidence pointed to a planned attack on the administration. "It does appear that he did in fact set out to target folks who work in the administration, likely including the president," Blanche said. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described the incident on Sunday as an attempt to "assassinate the president and kill as many top Trump administration officials as possible."

Inside the ballroom

The shots rang out at roughly 8:30 p.m., about 20 minutes after Trump made his entrance and roughly five minutes into mentalist Oz Pearlman's performance. Several attendees described hearing four to six pops from the corridor outside. Many initially thought a tray had dropped. "I was hoping it was a tray," Trump said later. "But it wasn't."

Vance was the first to be pulled offstage. Trump and Melania Trump were briefly shielded behind armored plating before being moved out a back corridor, with Trump appearing to stumble as agents directed him to the floor. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, FBI Director Kash Patel, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., White House senior advisers Stephen Miller and Dan Scavino, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and others were extracted one by one by their respective security details.

Roughly 2,300 guests dropped under tables, knocking over place settings as Secret Service agents in tactical gear took positions on the stage. Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was seen in tears as she was escorted out. Some attendees attempted to start a "USA" chant. The Marine Band, which had played Trump in earlier with "Hail to the Chief," fell silent.

After about an hour backstage in a secure suite reserved for presidential use, Trump was driven back to the White House. He returned to the briefing room shortly before 11 p.m., still in a tuxedo, to address reporters. He called the shooter a "very sick person" and a "lone wolf, whack job," and said the dinner would be rescheduled within 30 days.

The suspect's path to Washington

Allen took an Amtrak train from Los Angeles to Chicago and then on to Washington in the days before the attack, checking into the Washington Hilton on Friday, April 24, the night before the dinner. Federal authorities believe the train route may have been chosen to avoid the screening required for air travel.

He had legally purchased two handguns and a 12-gauge shotgun from Cap Tactical Firearms in California, beginning with a .38-caliber semiautomatic in October 2023, and stored them at his parents' home in Torrance without their knowledge. His sister, Avriana Allen, who lives in Rockville, Maryland, told investigators her brother regularly visited a shooting range, made radical statements, was a member of a group called "The Wide Awakes," and had attended a "No Kings" protest in California.

A graduate of the California Institute of Technology, Allen earned a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in 2017 and a master's in computer science from California State University, Dominguez Hills. He interned at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for three months in 2014 as an undergraduate, the agency confirmed. For roughly six years he worked as a tutor at C2 Education, a private test-prep firm with a location in Torrance, where he was named "Teacher of the Month" in December 2024. The company said it was cooperating with investigators and condemned the violence. Federal Election Commission records show a $25 donation to Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential campaign through ActBlue.

The manifesto and the warning that came too late

Roughly 10 minutes before the shooting, Allen sent a written document of more than 1,000 words to family members. He signed it "Cole 'coldForce' 'Friendly Federal Assassin' Allen."

The manifesto laid out a target list. "Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest," he wrote, according to a copy reviewed by federal investigators. He listed Secret Service agents as "targets only if necessary," with hotel security, Capitol Police, the National Guard, hotel employees, and guests outside the target set. He wrote that he would use buckshot rather than slugs to limit penetration through walls, but added that he would still "go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary."

The document referred to Trump in degrading terms — calling him a "pedophile, rapist, and traitor" — and cited grievances over administration actions, including U.S. military strikes on boats in the eastern Pacific accused of drug smuggling. It also mocked the security posture at the Hilton. "I walk in with multiple weapons and not a single person there considers the possibility that I could be a threat," he wrote. "Like, this level of incompetence is insane."

Allen's brother, who lives in New London, Connecticut, contacted the New London Police Department at 10:49 p.m. — about two hours after the shooting — to share the manifesto. The department immediately notified federal authorities. The brother had received the document shortly before the attack began. Trump initially suggested the family had alerted law enforcement before the shooting, but officials said the timeline of those calls remains unclear.

Security questions and the political backdrop

The breach has reopened questions about the security architecture around the dinner. Guests reported entering the hotel itself with no more than a flash of a paper ticket, with magnetometers only positioned at the ballroom entrance. Allen, having already checked in as a hotel guest, was inside the building well before the screening points. A WHCD volunteer, Helen Mabus, told reporters Allen appeared to assemble his shotgun in a lightly monitored room near the terrace entrance.

U.S. Secret Service Director Matthew Quinn said on X that the suspect "underestimated the protective capabilities of the U.S. Secret Service, and was stopped at first contact." Blanche said Allen "barely broke the perimeter" by a few feet before being brought down. The suspect's bullet hit a uniformed Secret Service officer in the chest at close range; the round was stopped by his vest. He was treated and released.

The Washington Hilton is the same hotel outside which President Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981. The incident marked what Trump described as the third attempt on his life, following the Butler, Pennsylvania shooting in July 2024 and the West Palm Beach golf course incident two months later.

The administration moved quickly Sunday to use the shooting as leverage in a separate legal dispute. The Justice Department sent a letter to the National Trust for Historic Preservation demanding it drop its lawsuit challenging construction of a $400 million White House ballroom that would replace the East Wing, citing Saturday night's events. A federal appeals court is currently allowing construction to continue while litigation proceeds.

The state visit by King Charles III, which begins Monday, will proceed as scheduled, Buckingham Palace confirmed Sunday evening after coordination between the U.S. Secret Service and British security services.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• U.S. Forces Seize Iranian Ship Attempting To Break The Blockade

• PM Carney: Economic Ties With U.S. Have Become A Weakness

• South Korean President Aims For Economic Growth With India In Summit

U.S. Forces Seize Iranian Ship Attempting To Break The Blockade

The USS Spruance (pictured) interdicted the Iranian Ship “Touska” in the Gulf of Oman (Central Command United States)

_{By: Atlas}

The U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday after the vessel ignored six hours of warnings to turn back, the first forcible boarding since Washington's blockade of Iranian ports took effect April 13.

The guided missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted the Touska, a 964-foot container ship, as it sailed toward the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. After the crew failed to comply, the Spruance directed those aboard to evacuate the engine room and then fired several rounds from its 5-inch MK 45 gun, disabling the ship's propulsion without sinking it. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, operating out of Okinawa, then boarded the vessel and took custody.

"The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom," President Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what's on board!"

U.S. Central Command said American forces had acted in a "deliberate, professional, and proportional manner." A video released by the command shows a voice from the Spruance warning the Touska — "We are prepared to subject you to disabling fire" — followed by a horn blast and at least three rounds striking the ship.

What was on the Touska

The Touska is operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, a state-owned carrier under U.S., British, and European Union sanctions that the State Department has labeled the "preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators and procurement agents." The vessel is capable of carrying roughly 4,800 standard containers and was returning from Gaolan port in Zhuhai, on China's southern coast, when it was stopped.

AIS data provided by the intelligence firm Kpler placed the ship about 30 miles off Iran's southern coast at the time of the interception. Gaolan has been identified by outside experts as a known loading point for sodium perchlorate, a precursor chemical used in solid rocket fuel — a key input for Iran's ballistic missile program. It was not immediately clear what cargo the Touska carried.

The owner of the vessel has previously been accused by the United States of procuring materials for Tehran's missile effort.

Iran vows retaliation, Hormuz freezes up again

Iran's joint military command called the boarding an act of "armed piracy" and said U.S. forces had "violated the ceasefire" that has been in place since April 8. A spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, quoted by ISNA, said the armed forces "will soon respond and retaliate." By evening, Iranian state media reported that drone attacks had been launched against U.S. military vessels in response.

Tehran had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for 24 hours on Friday, only to reverse course the following day after Trump confirmed the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would stay in force until a peace deal is signed. Iranian gunboats and small craft fired on at least two commercial ships attempting to transit the waterway on Saturday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center, a Royal Navy monitoring agency. All crew members were reported safe.

By Sunday morning, Bloomberg's vessel tracking data showed tanker traffic through the strait had largely ground to a halt, with multiple ships performing U-turns over the previous 24 hours. Several LNG tankers already heading for the chokepoint reversed course after being warned by Iranian authorities.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which has functioned as Tehran's top decision-making body in recent weeks, said the Islamic Republic would maintain "oversight and control over traffic through the strait until the war fully ends" — requiring Iran-designated routes, transit fees, and formal certificates.

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref laid out Tehran's position bluntly in a social media post: "One cannot restrict Iran's oil exports while expecting free security for others. The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone."

Negotiations in Islamabad hang in the balance

Even before the Spruance opened fire, the diplomatic track was wobbling. Trump said Sunday that Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner would head to Islamabad for a second round of talks beginning Tuesday and possibly stretching into Wednesday, the day the two-week ceasefire expires. He later told ABC News and MSNow that Vance would not make the trip, though the White House did not publicly update its delegation.

Iranian state media, citing unnamed sources, reported that Tehran had "rejected" the round, pointing to "Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire."

Pakistan moved ahead with preparations regardless. Two U.S. Air Force C-17 cargo planes landed at an Islamabad-area air base Sunday afternoon carrying security equipment and vehicles, according to two Pakistani security sources. Roads around the capital's diplomatic enclave were shut, barbed wire was rolled out near the Serena Hotel, and guests were told to leave ahead of the meetings.

Iran's chief negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, acknowledged in a televised address Saturday night that progress had been made in the first round but that the two sides remained "far from the final discussion." He repeated Tehran's warning that traffic through Hormuz would be restricted as long as the U.S. blockade continued.

Markets react and Trump escalates rhetoric

The seizure jolted global markets as they began to open. Brent crude futures jumped roughly 7% in early Asian trading, climbing to about $96.85 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.9%. Prices had fallen to near $90 on Friday after the brief Hormuz reopening.

CENTCOM said 25 commercial vessels have been turned back since the blockade began, and U.S. officials have signaled that American forces are prepared to board Iranian ships anywhere in the world. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told ABC News that the president is "prepared to actually board and turn around Iranian ships even as far east as the Pacific Ocean."

Trump, for his part, recycled his threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure if no agreement is reached, writing that the U.S. would "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" and adding: "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" Iran has said in turn that any strike on its civilian infrastructure would be answered with attacks on the power stations and desalination plants of neighboring Gulf Arab states.

With the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday, the seizure of the Touska leaves negotiators in Islamabad — if they show up — trying to stitch together an agreement as the two sides trade fire at sea.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Vance Announces Terms Couldn’t Be Reached With Iran

• New Leader Emerges In Hungary, Ending 16 Year Reign By Outgoing PM

• Irish Government Cuts Back Tax Hikes Following Continued Protests

Vance Announces Terms Couldn’t Be Reached With Iran

U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Budapest, Hungary, April 8, 2026. (Reuters - Jonathan Ernst)

_{By: Atlas}

After 21 hours, US-Iran negotiations ended Saturday in Islamabad with no deal. Soon after, Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil shipping passages in the world, saying the action was effective immediately. 

Trump said most issues at the table had been worked out. The nuclear question had not. He called it "the only point that really mattered." 

Vice President J.D. Vance headed the American side. His position when talks ended was that Iran had not agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions. That was the line, and Iran did not cross it. The talks were over. 

Iran's officials came out with a different read. They said Washington's terms were unreasonable and put the blame on American pressure. They also said Tehran had not given up on diplomacy, though what that means in practical terms, given where things stand, is unclear. 

What the U.S. Was Asking For 

The American conditions going into the talks were not subtle. Iran could not build a nuclear weapon. Enrichment had to stop, not just slow down. Major enrichment sites had to be taken apart. Highly enriched uranium Iran had already produced had to come out of the country. And Iran had to end its backing of armed groups throughout the region. 

That is a long list. It asks Iran to give up things it has spent decades and considerable resources building. Iran said no. 

After the talks collapsed, Trump's statement went further than just announcing the failure. He said the Navy would stop and board ships that had paid what he called an illegal toll to Iran for passage through the strait. He warned that any vessel or Iranian force that attacked American or civilian ships would face severe military retaliation. He brought up Iranian mines and said they would be destroyed. That kind of specific, operational language in a public statement is not routine. 

The Strait and Why It Matters 

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel. On one side is Iran. On the other, the Arabian Peninsula. It is the only way in or out of the Persian Gulf by sea, and it is how a significant portion of the world's oil supply gets to market every day; crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar all moves through it. So does a large share of global liquefied natural gas.

Iran has always known what it controls geographically. It can mine the waterway. It can harass ships. It has done both before. That reality has sat at the center of Gulf security calculations for decades, and it is part of why the strait gets the attention it does every time tensions rise. 

Iranian officials said after Trump's announcement that commercial shipping can still move through the strait without interference. They also said that military vessels trying to enforce a blockade would not have it so easy. That was a direct warning to the U.S. Navy. 

The situation is unusual in one specific way. Historically, the threat to shut down or disrupt the strait has come from Iran. This time it is coming from the United States. That is not a minor reversal. It changes the nature of the standoff and puts both sides in territory that does not have a lot of recent precedent. 

The Legal and Operational Reality 

Saying a blockade is in effect and actually running one are two different things. Stopping commercial ships in international waters is not a simple enforcement action. It raises legal questions under maritime law. It would affect countries far beyond the U.S. and Iran; governments across Europe and Asia that depend on Gulf oil exports would have an immediate stake in what happens. Rules for how the Navy handles encounters with non-military vessels would need to exist, and they would need to hold up under scrutiny. 

Markets do not wait for any of that to get sorted out. When a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is announced by a sitting U.S. president, oil prices move. Shipping rates move. Companies that run tankers through the Gulf start making decisions. All of that happens before a single ship is stopped. 

Where Things Go From Here 

The two sides acknowledged during the talks that progress had been made on some issues. The nuclear question was the one left standing. That is worth noting because it means the rest of the diplomatic conversation is not entirely dead, it just has a very large obstacle in the middle of it. 

The region was already unsettled before Saturday. Multiple conflicts are active. Ceasefire arrangements elsewhere are fragile. Adding a declared naval blockade and an Iranian warning to that environment raises the chance of something going wrong at sea in a way that is hard to walk back. 

The things to watch now are straightforward. Where is the U.S. Navy moving? What is Iran doing at the strait? Does either government signal any interest in sitting back down? Those questions will determine whether Saturday was the beginning of a serious military confrontation or a pressure move that eventually gives way to another round of negotiations. Right now, there is no answer.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• U.S. Proclaims No Man Left Behind In Officer Rescue

• Israeli Airstrikes Kill Several In Lebanon

• Trump Opens Door To Total Destruction Of Iran In Tuesday Deadline

U.S. Proclaims No Man Left Behind In Officer Rescue

U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. April 1, 2026. (Alex Brandon - Pool via Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

American special operations forces extracted the second crew member of an F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran on Friday, completing what military officials described as one of the most complex and dangerous search-and-rescue operations in U.S. history. The weapons systems officer — a colonel who has not been publicly identified — spent roughly 36 hours evading Iranian forces in the Zagros Mountains of southwestern Iran before being pulled out in a massive Saturday night operation involving hundreds of commandos, dozens of aircraft, and a CIA deception campaign designed to misdirect Iran's search.

"WE GOT HIM!" President Trump announced on Truth Social just after midnight Sunday. He described the colonel as "seriously wounded" but said he would recover.

The first crew member — the pilot — had been rescued Friday in a separate operation conducted within hours of the shootdown. Trump said the administration withheld confirmation of that rescue to avoid compromising the second mission. "We did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation," Trump said.

The F-15E was brought down on Good Friday over southwestern Iran, marking the first U.S. aircraft shot down over enemy territory since the early days of the Iraq war in 2003. Both crew members ejected. The pilot made radio contact quickly and was extracted within hours, though a U.S. Black Hawk helicopter was struck by small arms fire during that operation, wounding crew members. The helicopter was able to fly out of Iran.

The weapons systems officer's situation was far more precarious. He was injured during ejection but could still walk, officials said. He moved away from the wreckage and climbed roughly 7,000 feet up a ridge in the Zagros range, concealing himself in a mountain crevice with little more than a pistol and his survival training.

36 Hours on the Run

Iranian forces immediately mobilized to find him. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent units into the region. Local authorities urged civilians to assist in the search. Merchant groups offered a bounty of roughly $60,000 — more than 10 times the average Iranian household income — for information leading to his capture.

While the colonel hid, American MQ-9 Reaper drones maintained a protective perimeter, striking Iranian forces and vehicles that approached within two miles of his estimated position. U.S. Air Force jets conducted additional strikes against Iranian convoys closing in on the area.

The CIA launched a deception campaign on Saturday, planting intelligence through multiple sources inside Iran that the airman had already been found and was being moved overland toward a maritime exfiltration point. A senior administration official said the ruse was designed to buy time while the agency used what it described as "unique, exquisite capabilities" to narrow the colonel's location.

There was initial concern that the emergency beacon signal could be an Iranian trap. Once the CIA confirmed Saturday morning that the signal was genuine, the precise location — a specific mountain crevice — was shared with the Pentagon and the White House. Trump ordered an immediate rescue.

The Extraction

The operation launched Saturday night and stretched into Sunday. SEAL Team 6 and other elite special operations units entered Iranian territory under cover of darkness, supported by a high volume of air cover and real-time CIA intelligence. U.S. attack aircraft bombed and strafed Iranian roads and positions to prevent IRGC forces from reaching the rescue site.

The commandos pushed toward the colonel's position on foot, triggering firefights with local militia and IRGC fighters along the way. U.S. forces also engaged in skirmishes with local tribesmen during the hunt. Despite the intensity, no American rescuers were killed or wounded, officials said.

Multiple transport aircraft — believed to be MC-130J Commando IIs, specialized high-tech planes used in special operations — landed at a hastily constructed forward airstrip inside Iran, south of Isfahan, some 200 miles inside the country. Isfahan houses much of Iran's missile and army infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and the last of its fleet of F-14 fighter jets.

Two of the MC-130Js became stuck at the forward airstrip and could not take off. Rather than risk sensitive equipment falling into Iranian hands, commanders ordered both aircraft destroyed in place. Each was valued at roughly $100 million. Three additional aircraft were dispatched to evacuate the stranded forces.

Photos from Iranian state media show the burned-out wreckage of multiple aircraft at the site, including what appear to be two MH-6/AH-6 Little Bird helicopters used in special operations. A total of four such helicopters were likely delivered to the landing site to provide close air support and force protection.

The injured colonel was flown to Kuwait for medical treatment approximately seven hours after the mission began. All U.S. personnel involved were safely out of Iran by early Sunday.

Additional Aircraft Losses

The rescue operation compounded what was already the most significant series of U.S. aircraft losses since the war began on February 28. In addition to the F-15E and the destroyed transport planes, an A-10 Warthog attack aircraft providing cover was struck by enemy fire on Friday near the Strait of Hormuz and went down. Its pilot ejected safely and was recovered. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were also shot down by Iranian forces during the operation.

The losses undercut claims from the administration that the U.S. has unchallenged air superiority over Iran. Trump maintained that the successful recovery of both crew members without American casualties proved "overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies." Military analysts noted that Iran clearly retains some capability to target and bring down American aircraft.

Retired General Frank McKenzie, a former head of U.S. Central Command, offered a more measured assessment. "If you're at Central Command, you've got to be reasonably satisfied with where you are right now," McKenzie said. "When I was the CENTCOM commander, if you had given me this situation at plus-30 days, I would have rejected it as being too optimistic by far."

Israel confirmed that it assisted in the operation, providing intelligence and establishing what officials described as a "ring of fire" around the rescue area. Israeli forces halted their own strikes on Iran during the mission to avoid complicating the operation.

What It Means for the War

The shootdown of the F-15E and the two-day rescue mission represent the most significant ground operation by U.S. forces inside Iran since the war began. The capture of an American service member by Iranian forces would have immediately changed the dynamics of the conflict — both on the battlefield and in Washington, where congressional skepticism of the war is growing.

Instead, the administration is framing the operation as a demonstration of American capability. Trump said he would hold a press conference with military officials at the White House on Monday to discuss the rescue in detail.

The events unfolded against the backdrop of Trump's escalating ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, he warned Iran that "all hell will reign down" if the strait is not reopened within 48 hours — a deadline that expires Monday. He followed up Sunday with a profanity-laced post demanding Iran "open the f------ Strait" and threatening to make Tuesday "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one."

Iranian officials dismissed the threats. "Iranian society generally does not pay attention to his statements," Iran's culture minister told reporters.

Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed and more than 300 wounded since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Diplomatic efforts have shown little progress in recent days, two sources familiar with indirect talks said. The rescue of both airmen removes one potential flashpoint — but the war's trajectory remains uncertain, and the Hormuz deadline is now hours away.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Pakistan Hosts Regional Powers For Talks On Iran War

• Israeli PM Orders Military Expansion Deeper Into Southern Lebanon

• DHS Enters 45th Day Of Shutdown, The Longest In History

Pakistan Hosts Regional Powers For Talks On Iran War

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al Saud meets Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator Mohammad Ishaq Darin Islamabad, Pakistan, March 29, 2026. (Saudi Press Agency)

_{By: Atlas}

Pakistan convened foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in Islamabad on Sunday for two days of talks aimed at brokering an end to the war in Iran and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The gathering represents the most concentrated diplomatic effort by regional powers since the U.S.-Israeli air campaign began a month ago, and it positions Islamabad as the primary intermediary between Washington and Tehran in a conflict that has killed more than 3,000 people and sent global energy markets into turmoil.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said after the first day of discussions that the ministers had covered "possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region" and had been briefed on potential direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. He said all sides had expressed confidence in Pakistan's role as a mediator and added that China "fully supports" the initiative.

"Pakistan will be honored to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides in coming days, for a comprehensive and lasting settlement of the ongoing conflict," Dar said in a video statement posted on X.

It was not immediately clear whether the United States or Iran had agreed to attend any such talks. Iran has publicly denied that direct negotiations with Washington are taking place, though President Trump has repeatedly claimed otherwise.

Hormuz Proposals Take Center Stage

The first day of discussions focused heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply used to flow before Iran effectively shut it down in retaliation for the strikes that began February 28.

Sources familiar with the talks said the participating countries have floated several proposals tied to restoring maritime traffic through the strait. One Pakistani source said Egypt had forwarded proposals to the White House before Sunday's meeting that included Suez Canal-style fee structures — essentially a toll system for vessels transiting the waterway.

Two additional Pakistani sources said Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia could form a management consortium to oversee oil flows through the strait and had asked Pakistan to participate. The first source said Islamabad had not been formally asked to join and maintains that it will not.

The consortium proposal has reportedly been discussed with both the United States and Iran. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in regular contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance throughout the crisis, sources said.

A Turkish diplomatic source said Ankara's immediate priority was securing a ceasefire, adding that "ensuring the safe passage of ships could serve as an important confidence-building measure in this regard."

Dar separately announced that Iran had agreed to allow 20 more Pakistani-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a small but tangible concession in a waterway that remains largely closed to international traffic. Four Indian-flagged LPG tankers have also recently completed the crossing, and two more India-bound vessels carrying roughly 94,000 metric tons of cooking gas passed through safely over the weekend.

Pakistan's Role as Go-Between

Pakistan has emerged as the central diplomatic channel in the conflict by leveraging something few other countries possess: functional relationships with both sides. Islamabad shares a border with Iran and maintains close ties with Tehran. At the same time, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Munir have cultivated a personal rapport with Trump, and Pakistan's intelligence and military establishments have long-standing connections to Washington.

Sharif said Saturday that he held a conversation lasting more than an hour with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as part of preparations for the Islamabad talks. Pezeshkian's office said the Iranian president had "thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts to stop the aggression against the Islamic Republic."

Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Friday that he expected a direct U.S.-Iran meeting in Pakistan "very soon," though he did not reveal his source.

Pakistan had previously offered to host negotiations after Trump submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries earlier in the week. That proposal — which called for a full rollback of Iran's nuclear program, the reopening of Hormuz, and an end to Tehran's proxy strategy — was publicly rejected by Iran, which issued its own set of counter-demands.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said Sunday that the four ministers had also discussed the economic fallout from the war, including disruptions to international shipping, supply chains, food security, and rising energy prices.

A War That Keeps Expanding

The diplomatic push in Islamabad is happening against a worsening military backdrop. About 2,500 U.S. Marines arrived in the region over the weekend. The Pentagon is weighing the deployment of an additional 10,000 ground troops, and the 82nd Airborne Division has already been ordered to the Middle East. Iran has warned the United States against launching a ground attack.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels entered the war on Saturday, launching their first attacks on Israel since the conflict began. The Houthis' involvement raises the prospect of further disruption to global shipping if they resume targeting vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea, through which approximately 12 percent of the world's trade normally passes.

Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have also intensified drone and missile attacks on U.S. positions, including overnight strikes targeting the U.S. consulate and nearby bases in Irbil, the capital of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Iran's navy commander warned Sunday that the USS Abraham Lincoln would face shore-to-sea missile fire if it entered what he described as Iran's strike range. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps also threatened to target American universities in the Middle East, claiming U.S.-Israeli strikes had destroyed two Iranian universities.

More than 3,000 people have been killed since the war began. Oil prices continue to surge, and Brent crude remains near $100 a barrel — up roughly 40 percent since February 28.

What Comes Next

The Islamabad talks are scheduled to continue into Monday. Whether they produce anything beyond a communiqué depends largely on factors the four foreign ministers in Pakistan do not control — primarily, whether Washington and Tehran are willing to sit across from each other.

The U.S. has sent a 15-point ceasefire plan. Iran has rejected it. Trump has claimed negotiations are underway. Iran has denied it. Pakistan says it is ready to host. No date for direct talks has been set.

The consortium proposal for managing the Strait of Hormuz offers a potential off-ramp on the most economically damaging dimension of the conflict. But any arrangement would require Iranian cooperation — and Tehran has shown little willingness to relinquish its leverage over the waterway while bombs are still falling on its territory.

For now, the Islamabad gathering is the closest thing the region has to an organized peace process. Dar framed it in those terms Sunday, saying the talks represented "the beginning of a critical process" built on the only viable path forward: "diplomacy and dialogue."