Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

• Ukraine Launches 600 Drones Towards Russia, Strikes Moscow

• World Health Org. Declares Outbreak In Congo & Uganda

Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC on May 15 (AFP)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump renewed his ultimatum to Iran on Sunday, warning that the ruling regime is running out of time to accept a peace deal and threatening a sharper round of U.S. strikes if Tehran does not come back with a better offer.

"For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In a phone interview with Axios, Trump pressed the same line. "We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there, or they will be hit badly, and they don't want that," he said. If Iran does not produce a more acceptable proposal soon, he said, the United States will hit it "much harder than before."

Trump declined to set a public deadline. He said he was still waiting on a revised Iranian offer after publicly dismissing the last one as "garbage."

The war, opened by joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has been on an indefinite ceasefire for weeks. Skirmishes in and around the Strait of Hormuz have kept it frayed.

Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant

The renewed pressure came hours after a drone hit the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, the United Arab Emirates' only nuclear power station. The drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter, igniting a fire on the facility's grounds but causing no casualties.

The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones entered Emirati airspace from the western border. Two were intercepted; one got through. Radiation levels at the plant remained normal, and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed there was no impact on radiological safety. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called for "maximum military restraint" near any nuclear site.

UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan told Grossi the country has the right to respond to what he called "terror attacks" on the plant. The UAE has not formally named a suspect. Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomatic adviser, was more pointed, writing on X that the attack — "whether carried out directly by the principal actor or through one of its proxies" — was a "dangerous escalation."

Iran has not claimed the strike. It is the first time the $20 billion South Korean-built plant has been targeted in the war. The UAE has accused Iran of launching at least two other attacks on its territory this month, including a missile and drone barrage that set fire to an oil refinery in Fujairah after Trump launched Project Freedom, the U.S. effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pentagon Planning and a Call to Netanyahu

Trump spent the weekend in war-planning mode. On Saturday, he convened members of his national security team at his Virginia golf club. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were among those at the table.

On Sunday morning, Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Our eyes are also open regarding Iran," Netanyahu told his cabinet earlier in the day. "There are certainly many possibilities, and we are prepared for every scenario." Israeli and U.S. officials have begun coordinating on the option of resuming the air campaign against Iran.

Trump is expected to bring his top national security officials into the Situation Room on Tuesday for a formal review of military options. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers in recent days that the Pentagon has an escalation plan ready.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, made the case for renewed strikes on NBC's "Meet the Press." "What President Trump has done has been amazing militarily, but there are more targets to be had, and there are things we can do to hurt Iran," Graham said.

Diplomacy Stalled but Not Dead

The formal diplomatic channel is being run by Pakistan, with Qatar mediating in parallel. Pakistan's interior minister visited Tehran on Saturday and Sunday for talks with senior Iranian officials. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke Sunday with both his Pakistani counterpart and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

"The clock on diplomacy has not stopped. The peace process is working," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad.

Araghchi has said Iran would welcome diplomatic help from other countries, including China. Trump told Fox News that Chinese President Xi Jinping offered help during last week's Beijing summit, but Beijing has shown little public appetite for taking on the role.

U.S. intelligence assessments shared with Israeli officials indicate Tehran is pursuing a strategy of "deception and delay," gambling that stretching the crisis past several upcoming events — including the World Cup and the United States' 250th anniversary — will make a renewed military campaign politically harder for Trump.

Pressure Builds on the Ground

The economic pressure on Iran is becoming visible. A senior Israeli official said early signs of a fuel crisis emerged over the weekend, with long lines at gas stations and public complaints over shortages and distribution problems. "It's getting exponentially worse," the official said.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Iran has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which it shut at the start of the war. Brent crude rose more than 2 percent on Sunday evening, trading at roughly $111 a barrel as the talks impasse and the UAE attack hit the screens.

Iranian state television, meanwhile, has been broadcasting unusual scenes. Two anchors appeared on air armed over the weekend, with one miming a shot at a UAE flag and the other declaring she was ready to die for the country. The on-air messaging, paired with public reluctance to back down on the nuclear file, is consistent with the assessment that Tehran is bracing for the campaign to resume.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump: Latest Iran Proposal ‘Totally Unacceptable’

• Russian President Alludes To End Of War With Ukraine

• Macron Embarks On Africa Summit In Kenya

Trump: Latest Iran Proposal ‘Totally Unacceptable’

President Trump (AFP via Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the war Sunday, calling it "totally unacceptable" in a Truth Social post and accusing Tehran of "playing games with the United States" for nearly half a century.

The Iranian reply, delivered through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif earlier in the day, did not engage directly with the centerpiece of Washington's 14-point framework: rolling back Iran's nuclear program. Iranian state media said Tehran's counter-proposal focused on ending hostilities across the region, securing the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and releasing seized Iranian assets — deferring the more contentious nuclear file to a later phase of talks.

"I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'Representatives,'" Trump wrote. "I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Two hours earlier, he posted that Iran "has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years. They will be laughing no longer!"

Iranian state television went further, characterizing the U.S. text itself as a demand for surrender and saying Tehran was insisting instead on "war reparations by the U.S., full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of seized Iranian assets."

The exchange leaves the negotiating track at its most exposed point since the April 8 ceasefire took hold. Oil jumped roughly $3 a barrel as Asian markets opened Monday. National average gasoline prices in the U.S. stood at $4.52 a gallon Sunday, up roughly 50 percent from pre-war levels.

What was on the table

Washington's 14-point proposal was delivered to Tehran last week, also through the Pakistani channel. Under its terms, Iran would commit to never developing a nuclear weapon and would suspend all uranium enrichment for at least 12 years. It would also be required to surrender its estimated 440-kilogram stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a technical step from weapons-grade, with no civilian application.

In return, the United States would gradually lift sanctions, release billions in frozen Iranian assets, and end the naval blockade of Iranian ports. The proposed structure called for a one-page agreement formally ending the fighting, followed by a 30-day window to negotiate the harder issues.

Iran's counter-proposal effectively reordered that sequence. An official Iranian source described the response to Al Jazeera as "realistic and positive," saying it covered "ending the war throughout the region, especially in Lebanon, and resolving differences with Washington," and that "negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear programme, and the lifting of sanctions" would follow. The source added: "Washington's positive response to our response will move the negotiations forward quickly. The choice now lies with Washington."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian framed the posture on X: "We will never bow our heads before the enemy. If talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat. Rather, the goal is to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and to defend national interests with resolute strength."

Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told ABC on Sunday that Trump was giving diplomacy "every chance we possibly can before going back to hostilities."

The nuclear sticking point

Trump made clear on Sunday that the uranium stockpile remains his central red line. In a separate interview with Sharyl Attkisson released the same day, he said taking control of Iran's enriched material is his top priority.

"We'll get that at some point," Trump said. "We have it surveilled. You know, I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching. If somebody walked in, they can tell you his name, his address, the number of his badge. We have that very well surveilled. If anybody got near the place, we will know about it, and we'll blow them up."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in excerpts of a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday night, said the war is "not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran." He said the issue had been discussed directly with Trump. "Trump has said to me, 'I want to go in there,' and I think it can be done physically."

Iran has signaled it is prepared for that scenario. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia, an army spokesman, told IRNA that Iranian forces are on "full readiness" to defend sites where uranium is stored. "We considered it possible that they might intend to steal it through infiltration operations or heli-borne operations," he said.

The bulk of Iran's 60-percent stockpile is believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex, which was struck during the opening days of the February 28 campaign and has been hit by additional U.S. and Israeli strikes since. The most recent IAEA inspection of the Bushehr reactor was August 27, 2025. A separate concern, raised in recent days by nonproliferation analysts, is the plutonium pathway through Bushehr's spent fuel, which Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center has argued could yield material for more than 200 weapons.

A Russian offer to take custody of Iran's enriched uranium remains on the table. Vladimir Putin reiterated Saturday that Moscow's proposal stands.

A weekend of fire

The diplomatic exchange unfolded against another round of incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz that left the ceasefire visibly strained but, as of Sunday, formally intact.

A bulk carrier was struck by an unidentified projectile in Qatari waters early Sunday, igniting a small fire that was quickly extinguished. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center confirmed the strike but did not identify the vessel's ownership. Qatar's Foreign Ministry called it "a dangerous and unacceptable escalation."

The United Arab Emirates intercepted two drones it said had been launched by Iran. Kuwait's military reported "a number of hostile drones" detected in its airspace overnight and engaged them under standing protocols. South Korea, separately, said two unidentified objects struck the South Korean-operated HMM NAMU about a minute apart while the vessel was anchored in the strait last week, causing an explosion and fire. The investigation has not yet identified who was responsible.

U.S. Central Command struck two Iranian oil tankers Friday after the vessels attempted to breach the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which has been in place since April 13. CENTCOM says it has turned back 61 commercial vessels and disabled four since the blockade began. Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy has warned any further strikes on Iranian-flagged tankers would trigger a "heavy assault" on U.S. bases and allied shipping in the region.

Iran's army has also announced what it calls a "new legal and security system" for the strait, requiring any vessel transiting the waterway to coordinate with Iranian authorities. Akraminia said the system is "now in force." A U.S.-led draft U.N. Security Council resolution co-sponsored with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar demands Iran cease attacks, mining, and the imposition of transit tolls. A similar resolution last month was vetoed by Russia and China.

What happens next

Trump's rejection was not paired with a concrete next step. Over the weekend he warned he was prepared to launch "Project Freedom Plus" — an expanded version of the Navy-escorted shipping operation he announced May 3 and which has since been paused — if Iran failed to engage. He also raised the prospect of a return to direct military operations, telling reporters last week that the world would see "one big glow" out of Iran if no deal was reached.

A senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, Abbas Aslani, said Iran's reply was not a "yes or no response" but a clarification of how Tehran reads the U.S. text. "If they can reach a kind of peace agreement at the initial stage, that could create a positive atmosphere and a trust-building measure somehow. But if the US wants to continue its demands, like Iran exporting its highly enriched uranium to the US or suspending enrichment for a long time, I think this could make any agreement impossible."

Al Jazeera's Kamal Hyder, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistan is pushing Tehran toward "a middle ground" and that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China have been in active contact with Iranian officials on the mediation track. "The next few days will be critical," Hyder said.

Trump leaves Wednesday for Beijing, where Iran is expected to be one of the central topics in his two-day summit with Xi Jinping. White House officials previewing the visit said Trump has spoken with Xi multiple times about Chinese leverage over Iran, including the revenue Beijing provides through its purchases of Iranian crude and the dual-use components that move through Chinese ports. China consumes nearly all of Iran's exportable oil and remains the most important external actor capable of moving Tehran on terms.

For now, the negotiations are formally still open. Neither side has declared the ceasefire dead. But Trump's Sunday post — "totally unacceptable" — leaves the diplomatic track in a position where one more exchange of fire, or one more failed counter-proposal, could close it.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump: U.S. Will Guide ‘Neutral’ Ships Out Of Strait Of Hormuz

• Ukraine Launches Heavy Attack Against Russian Port & Tankers

• U.S. Service Members Missing After War Games Exercise In Morocco

Trump: U.S. Will Guide ‘Neutral’ Ships Out Of Strait Of Hormuz

President Donald Trump (Maxine Wallace - The Washington Post)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the United States will begin guiding stranded commercial vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday morning, Middle East time, in an initiative he labeled "Project Freedom" and framed as a humanitarian gesture toward ships that have been stuck in the waterway since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said countries with no role in the conflict had asked the United States for help freeing vessels trapped in the strait. "Countries from all over the world, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly and violently for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!" Trump wrote.

"For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business," he added. The president warned that any interference with the operation "will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully."

The announcement landed as Trump publicly weighed a fourteen-point peace proposal Iran submitted over the weekend through Pakistani mediators. Trump said Saturday that he was "not satisfied" with the offer and that Tehran had "not yet paid a big enough price" — but on Sunday struck a more measured tone, writing that his representatives were having "very positive discussions" with Iran and that the talks "could lead to something very positive for all."

The military footprint

U.S. Central Command moved within hours to publicly back the operation. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said in a statement that forces would begin supporting Project Freedom on May 4 to "restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz."

The committed assets are substantial. CENTCOM said the supporting force will include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, in place for three weeks as the Navy continues to de-mine the strait, will continue in parallel.

The mechanics of the operation appear narrower than initial framing suggested. Two American officials indicated that U.S. Navy vessels will not necessarily escort commercial ships through the strait. Instead, Navy assets will remain "in the vicinity" to deter Iranian military action, while the Navy provides commercial captains with information on the safest maritime lanes — particularly those not seeded with Iranian mines.

The State Department announced a complementary diplomatic track last week, the Maritime Freedom Construct, designed to coordinate maritime security efforts with international partners. CENTCOM said the construct "aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination."

Operational analysts have flagged real constraints. Jonathan Hackett, a retired Marine Corps special operations specialist, said the U.S. Navy lacks the assets to escort the hundreds of vessels stranded in or seeking to transit the strait. "There are only about 12 Navy vessels that could actually conduct some kind of defense of these ships," Hackett said, noting that more than 100 transits per day moved through the strait before the war. He also pointed to the disposal of dedicated U.S. mine-sweeping vessels last year, leaving only retrofitted assets capable of limited mine-clearance work, and questioned whether commercial insurers would underwrite passages without ironclad guarantees of safety.

Iranian response

Tehran's reaction was swift and unambiguous. Ebrahim Azizi, the head of Iran's Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, warned that any U.S. action in the strait would be treated as a breach of the existing ceasefire.

"Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire," Azizi wrote in a translated post on X. "The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts!" He added that "the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric."

Iranian officials had earlier circulated draft legislation that would permanently bar Israeli vessels from the strait and deny transit rights to nations Tehran deems "hostile" through alliance with Washington. Iranian lawmakers have signaled that the strait will not return to its prewar status under any circumstances.

Two maritime incidents in close succession on Sunday reinforced the tension. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been hit by what it described as "unknown projectiles." All crew were reported safe, and no environmental damage was recorded. Earlier in the day, a bulk carrier reported being attacked by multiple small craft approximately eleven nautical miles west of Sirik on the Iranian coast.

The diplomatic track

Iran's fourteen-point proposal, delivered through Pakistani channels over the weekend, attempts to break the strategic deadlock. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that the plan is structured in two phases: a first phase focused exclusively on ending the war and reaching an agreement, followed by a second phase — to be conducted within thirty days — addressing implementation and the more complex underlying issues, including the nuclear file and the future of the strait.

Baghaei rejected characterizations of the thirty-day window as a deadline. "Iran is not negotiating under pressure and not negotiating under ultimatums," he said, describing the period as a sequence of phases rather than a countdown. He also indicated that Iran's guarantees in any agreement would derive "from its own power and leverage" — a formulation Iranian analysts have linked to Tehran's continued ability to influence movement through the strait.

The reported terms of the Iranian proposal would, if accepted, lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, end the war, and resolve the parallel conflict in Lebanon. Washington sent another amended draft agreement back to Tehran on Sunday in response.

Trump's domestic legal posture has shifted in parallel. On Friday, he formally notified Congress that the war had been "terminated," seeking to sidestep a sixty-day War Powers Act deadline for congressional authorization. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee a day earlier that the administration considered the deadline paused by a temporary ceasefire — a legal theory that Democrats and outside legal scholars have dismissed.

Markets and political stakes

The Strait of Hormuz has now been effectively closed to commercial traffic for more than two months, with substantial economic consequences. Roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products move through the waterway in normal periods. Benchmark oil prices reached a four-year high on Thursday, and the average price at the pump for American drivers reached $4.45 a gallon on Sunday — up roughly 35 cents over the past week.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, appearing on ABC's "This Week" Sunday morning, said his briefings indicated that prices would respond rapidly to any reopening. "From all the briefings that I've had, once the strait opens, you'll see prices come down immediately," Duffy said, while acknowledging it would take time to return to prewar levels.

Stranded crews — many from India and other countries in South and Southeast Asia — have spent weeks aboard vessels in the Persian Gulf, with some reporting low supplies of drinking water, food, and basic provisions. Several have described watching intercepted drones and missiles explode over the surrounding waters.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz framed the operation as a defense of freedom of navigation rather than a unilateral provocation. "Regardless of how you feel about the conflict over their nuclear program, Iran laying sea mines indiscriminately in international waters and attempting to 'toll' civilian commercial shipping is illegal and unacceptable," Waltz wrote. He warned that allowing the precedent to stand would have implications well beyond Hormuz, citing the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Gibraltar as parallel chokepoints where the principle would matter.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• D.C. Gala Ends With Failed Trump Assassination

• Iranian Foreign Minister Returns To Pakistan For U.S. Peace Talks

• Mali’s Defense Chief Killed After Coordinated Attack By Rebels

D.C. Gala Ends With Failed Trump Assassination

President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference on April 25, 2026. (Andrew Leyden - Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

A 31-year-old California man stormed a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton on Saturday night and opened fire just outside the ballroom where President Donald Trump, the first lady, the vice president, and most of the cabinet were attending the White House Correspondents' Association dinner. Trump was rushed off the dais and out of the room. No guests were hurt. A Secret Service officer was hit at close range and survived because of his ballistic vest.

The suspect has been identified as Cole Tomas Allen of Torrance, California. He was tackled by Secret Service agents on the terrace level of the hotel after charging past a magnetometer with a shotgun, a handgun, and multiple knives. He was not shot. He was taken into custody and transported to a hospital for evaluation. He is expected to face federal charges Monday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, including assault of a federal officer, discharging a firearm in the commission of a crime of violence, and attempting to kill a federal officer.

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, speaking Sunday on multiple network programs, said the available evidence pointed to a planned attack on the administration. "It does appear that he did in fact set out to target folks who work in the administration, likely including the president," Blanche said. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described the incident on Sunday as an attempt to "assassinate the president and kill as many top Trump administration officials as possible."

Inside the ballroom

The shots rang out at roughly 8:30 p.m., about 20 minutes after Trump made his entrance and roughly five minutes into mentalist Oz Pearlman's performance. Several attendees described hearing four to six pops from the corridor outside. Many initially thought a tray had dropped. "I was hoping it was a tray," Trump said later. "But it wasn't."

Vance was the first to be pulled offstage. Trump and Melania Trump were briefly shielded behind armored plating before being moved out a back corridor, with Trump appearing to stumble as agents directed him to the floor. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, FBI Director Kash Patel, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., White House senior advisers Stephen Miller and Dan Scavino, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and others were extracted one by one by their respective security details.

Roughly 2,300 guests dropped under tables, knocking over place settings as Secret Service agents in tactical gear took positions on the stage. Erika Kirk, the widow of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was seen in tears as she was escorted out. Some attendees attempted to start a "USA" chant. The Marine Band, which had played Trump in earlier with "Hail to the Chief," fell silent.

After about an hour backstage in a secure suite reserved for presidential use, Trump was driven back to the White House. He returned to the briefing room shortly before 11 p.m., still in a tuxedo, to address reporters. He called the shooter a "very sick person" and a "lone wolf, whack job," and said the dinner would be rescheduled within 30 days.

The suspect's path to Washington

Allen took an Amtrak train from Los Angeles to Chicago and then on to Washington in the days before the attack, checking into the Washington Hilton on Friday, April 24, the night before the dinner. Federal authorities believe the train route may have been chosen to avoid the screening required for air travel.

He had legally purchased two handguns and a 12-gauge shotgun from Cap Tactical Firearms in California, beginning with a .38-caliber semiautomatic in October 2023, and stored them at his parents' home in Torrance without their knowledge. His sister, Avriana Allen, who lives in Rockville, Maryland, told investigators her brother regularly visited a shooting range, made radical statements, was a member of a group called "The Wide Awakes," and had attended a "No Kings" protest in California.

A graduate of the California Institute of Technology, Allen earned a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in 2017 and a master's in computer science from California State University, Dominguez Hills. He interned at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for three months in 2014 as an undergraduate, the agency confirmed. For roughly six years he worked as a tutor at C2 Education, a private test-prep firm with a location in Torrance, where he was named "Teacher of the Month" in December 2024. The company said it was cooperating with investigators and condemned the violence. Federal Election Commission records show a $25 donation to Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential campaign through ActBlue.

The manifesto and the warning that came too late

Roughly 10 minutes before the shooting, Allen sent a written document of more than 1,000 words to family members. He signed it "Cole 'coldForce' 'Friendly Federal Assassin' Allen."

The manifesto laid out a target list. "Administration officials (not including Mr. Patel): they are targets, prioritized from highest-ranking to lowest," he wrote, according to a copy reviewed by federal investigators. He listed Secret Service agents as "targets only if necessary," with hotel security, Capitol Police, the National Guard, hotel employees, and guests outside the target set. He wrote that he would use buckshot rather than slugs to limit penetration through walls, but added that he would still "go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary."

The document referred to Trump in degrading terms — calling him a "pedophile, rapist, and traitor" — and cited grievances over administration actions, including U.S. military strikes on boats in the eastern Pacific accused of drug smuggling. It also mocked the security posture at the Hilton. "I walk in with multiple weapons and not a single person there considers the possibility that I could be a threat," he wrote. "Like, this level of incompetence is insane."

Allen's brother, who lives in New London, Connecticut, contacted the New London Police Department at 10:49 p.m. — about two hours after the shooting — to share the manifesto. The department immediately notified federal authorities. The brother had received the document shortly before the attack began. Trump initially suggested the family had alerted law enforcement before the shooting, but officials said the timeline of those calls remains unclear.

Security questions and the political backdrop

The breach has reopened questions about the security architecture around the dinner. Guests reported entering the hotel itself with no more than a flash of a paper ticket, with magnetometers only positioned at the ballroom entrance. Allen, having already checked in as a hotel guest, was inside the building well before the screening points. A WHCD volunteer, Helen Mabus, told reporters Allen appeared to assemble his shotgun in a lightly monitored room near the terrace entrance.

U.S. Secret Service Director Matthew Quinn said on X that the suspect "underestimated the protective capabilities of the U.S. Secret Service, and was stopped at first contact." Blanche said Allen "barely broke the perimeter" by a few feet before being brought down. The suspect's bullet hit a uniformed Secret Service officer in the chest at close range; the round was stopped by his vest. He was treated and released.

The Washington Hilton is the same hotel outside which President Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981. The incident marked what Trump described as the third attempt on his life, following the Butler, Pennsylvania shooting in July 2024 and the West Palm Beach golf course incident two months later.

The administration moved quickly Sunday to use the shooting as leverage in a separate legal dispute. The Justice Department sent a letter to the National Trust for Historic Preservation demanding it drop its lawsuit challenging construction of a $400 million White House ballroom that would replace the East Wing, citing Saturday night's events. A federal appeals court is currently allowing construction to continue while litigation proceeds.

The state visit by King Charles III, which begins Monday, will proceed as scheduled, Buckingham Palace confirmed Sunday evening after coordination between the U.S. Secret Service and British security services.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• U.S. Forces Seize Iranian Ship Attempting To Break The Blockade

• PM Carney: Economic Ties With U.S. Have Become A Weakness

• South Korean President Aims For Economic Growth With India In Summit

U.S. Forces Seize Iranian Ship Attempting To Break The Blockade

The USS Spruance (pictured) interdicted the Iranian Ship “Touska” in the Gulf of Oman (Central Command United States)

_{By: Atlas}

The U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday after the vessel ignored six hours of warnings to turn back, the first forcible boarding since Washington's blockade of Iranian ports took effect April 13.

The guided missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted the Touska, a 964-foot container ship, as it sailed toward the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. After the crew failed to comply, the Spruance directed those aboard to evacuate the engine room and then fired several rounds from its 5-inch MK 45 gun, disabling the ship's propulsion without sinking it. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, operating out of Okinawa, then boarded the vessel and took custody.

"The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom," President Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what's on board!"

U.S. Central Command said American forces had acted in a "deliberate, professional, and proportional manner." A video released by the command shows a voice from the Spruance warning the Touska — "We are prepared to subject you to disabling fire" — followed by a horn blast and at least three rounds striking the ship.

What was on the Touska

The Touska is operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, a state-owned carrier under U.S., British, and European Union sanctions that the State Department has labeled the "preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators and procurement agents." The vessel is capable of carrying roughly 4,800 standard containers and was returning from Gaolan port in Zhuhai, on China's southern coast, when it was stopped.

AIS data provided by the intelligence firm Kpler placed the ship about 30 miles off Iran's southern coast at the time of the interception. Gaolan has been identified by outside experts as a known loading point for sodium perchlorate, a precursor chemical used in solid rocket fuel — a key input for Iran's ballistic missile program. It was not immediately clear what cargo the Touska carried.

The owner of the vessel has previously been accused by the United States of procuring materials for Tehran's missile effort.

Iran vows retaliation, Hormuz freezes up again

Iran's joint military command called the boarding an act of "armed piracy" and said U.S. forces had "violated the ceasefire" that has been in place since April 8. A spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, quoted by ISNA, said the armed forces "will soon respond and retaliate." By evening, Iranian state media reported that drone attacks had been launched against U.S. military vessels in response.

Tehran had declared the Strait of Hormuz open for 24 hours on Friday, only to reverse course the following day after Trump confirmed the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would stay in force until a peace deal is signed. Iranian gunboats and small craft fired on at least two commercial ships attempting to transit the waterway on Saturday, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center, a Royal Navy monitoring agency. All crew members were reported safe.

By Sunday morning, Bloomberg's vessel tracking data showed tanker traffic through the strait had largely ground to a halt, with multiple ships performing U-turns over the previous 24 hours. Several LNG tankers already heading for the chokepoint reversed course after being warned by Iranian authorities.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which has functioned as Tehran's top decision-making body in recent weeks, said the Islamic Republic would maintain "oversight and control over traffic through the strait until the war fully ends" — requiring Iran-designated routes, transit fees, and formal certificates.

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref laid out Tehran's position bluntly in a social media post: "One cannot restrict Iran's oil exports while expecting free security for others. The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone."

Negotiations in Islamabad hang in the balance

Even before the Spruance opened fire, the diplomatic track was wobbling. Trump said Sunday that Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner would head to Islamabad for a second round of talks beginning Tuesday and possibly stretching into Wednesday, the day the two-week ceasefire expires. He later told ABC News and MSNow that Vance would not make the trip, though the White House did not publicly update its delegation.

Iranian state media, citing unnamed sources, reported that Tehran had "rejected" the round, pointing to "Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire."

Pakistan moved ahead with preparations regardless. Two U.S. Air Force C-17 cargo planes landed at an Islamabad-area air base Sunday afternoon carrying security equipment and vehicles, according to two Pakistani security sources. Roads around the capital's diplomatic enclave were shut, barbed wire was rolled out near the Serena Hotel, and guests were told to leave ahead of the meetings.

Iran's chief negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, acknowledged in a televised address Saturday night that progress had been made in the first round but that the two sides remained "far from the final discussion." He repeated Tehran's warning that traffic through Hormuz would be restricted as long as the U.S. blockade continued.

Markets react and Trump escalates rhetoric

The seizure jolted global markets as they began to open. Brent crude futures jumped roughly 7% in early Asian trading, climbing to about $96.85 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.9%. Prices had fallen to near $90 on Friday after the brief Hormuz reopening.

CENTCOM said 25 commercial vessels have been turned back since the blockade began, and U.S. officials have signaled that American forces are prepared to board Iranian ships anywhere in the world. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told ABC News that the president is "prepared to actually board and turn around Iranian ships even as far east as the Pacific Ocean."

Trump, for his part, recycled his threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure if no agreement is reached, writing that the U.S. would "knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran" and adding: "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!" Iran has said in turn that any strike on its civilian infrastructure would be answered with attacks on the power stations and desalination plants of neighboring Gulf Arab states.

With the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday, the seizure of the Touska leaves negotiators in Islamabad — if they show up — trying to stitch together an agreement as the two sides trade fire at sea.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Vance Announces Terms Couldn’t Be Reached With Iran

• New Leader Emerges In Hungary, Ending 16 Year Reign By Outgoing PM

• Irish Government Cuts Back Tax Hikes Following Continued Protests

Vance Announces Terms Couldn’t Be Reached With Iran

U.S. Vice President JD Vance in Budapest, Hungary, April 8, 2026. (Reuters - Jonathan Ernst)

_{By: Atlas}

After 21 hours, US-Iran negotiations ended Saturday in Islamabad with no deal. Soon after, Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil shipping passages in the world, saying the action was effective immediately. 

Trump said most issues at the table had been worked out. The nuclear question had not. He called it "the only point that really mattered." 

Vice President J.D. Vance headed the American side. His position when talks ended was that Iran had not agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions. That was the line, and Iran did not cross it. The talks were over. 

Iran's officials came out with a different read. They said Washington's terms were unreasonable and put the blame on American pressure. They also said Tehran had not given up on diplomacy, though what that means in practical terms, given where things stand, is unclear. 

What the U.S. Was Asking For 

The American conditions going into the talks were not subtle. Iran could not build a nuclear weapon. Enrichment had to stop, not just slow down. Major enrichment sites had to be taken apart. Highly enriched uranium Iran had already produced had to come out of the country. And Iran had to end its backing of armed groups throughout the region. 

That is a long list. It asks Iran to give up things it has spent decades and considerable resources building. Iran said no. 

After the talks collapsed, Trump's statement went further than just announcing the failure. He said the Navy would stop and board ships that had paid what he called an illegal toll to Iran for passage through the strait. He warned that any vessel or Iranian force that attacked American or civilian ships would face severe military retaliation. He brought up Iranian mines and said they would be destroyed. That kind of specific, operational language in a public statement is not routine. 

The Strait and Why It Matters 

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel. On one side is Iran. On the other, the Arabian Peninsula. It is the only way in or out of the Persian Gulf by sea, and it is how a significant portion of the world's oil supply gets to market every day; crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar all moves through it. So does a large share of global liquefied natural gas.

Iran has always known what it controls geographically. It can mine the waterway. It can harass ships. It has done both before. That reality has sat at the center of Gulf security calculations for decades, and it is part of why the strait gets the attention it does every time tensions rise. 

Iranian officials said after Trump's announcement that commercial shipping can still move through the strait without interference. They also said that military vessels trying to enforce a blockade would not have it so easy. That was a direct warning to the U.S. Navy. 

The situation is unusual in one specific way. Historically, the threat to shut down or disrupt the strait has come from Iran. This time it is coming from the United States. That is not a minor reversal. It changes the nature of the standoff and puts both sides in territory that does not have a lot of recent precedent. 

The Legal and Operational Reality 

Saying a blockade is in effect and actually running one are two different things. Stopping commercial ships in international waters is not a simple enforcement action. It raises legal questions under maritime law. It would affect countries far beyond the U.S. and Iran; governments across Europe and Asia that depend on Gulf oil exports would have an immediate stake in what happens. Rules for how the Navy handles encounters with non-military vessels would need to exist, and they would need to hold up under scrutiny. 

Markets do not wait for any of that to get sorted out. When a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is announced by a sitting U.S. president, oil prices move. Shipping rates move. Companies that run tankers through the Gulf start making decisions. All of that happens before a single ship is stopped. 

Where Things Go From Here 

The two sides acknowledged during the talks that progress had been made on some issues. The nuclear question was the one left standing. That is worth noting because it means the rest of the diplomatic conversation is not entirely dead, it just has a very large obstacle in the middle of it. 

The region was already unsettled before Saturday. Multiple conflicts are active. Ceasefire arrangements elsewhere are fragile. Adding a declared naval blockade and an Iranian warning to that environment raises the chance of something going wrong at sea in a way that is hard to walk back. 

The things to watch now are straightforward. Where is the U.S. Navy moving? What is Iran doing at the strait? Does either government signal any interest in sitting back down? Those questions will determine whether Saturday was the beginning of a serious military confrontation or a pressure move that eventually gives way to another round of negotiations. Right now, there is no answer.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• U.S. Proclaims No Man Left Behind In Officer Rescue

• Israeli Airstrikes Kill Several In Lebanon

• Trump Opens Door To Total Destruction Of Iran In Tuesday Deadline

U.S. Proclaims No Man Left Behind In Officer Rescue

U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. April 1, 2026. (Alex Brandon - Pool via Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

American special operations forces extracted the second crew member of an F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran on Friday, completing what military officials described as one of the most complex and dangerous search-and-rescue operations in U.S. history. The weapons systems officer — a colonel who has not been publicly identified — spent roughly 36 hours evading Iranian forces in the Zagros Mountains of southwestern Iran before being pulled out in a massive Saturday night operation involving hundreds of commandos, dozens of aircraft, and a CIA deception campaign designed to misdirect Iran's search.

"WE GOT HIM!" President Trump announced on Truth Social just after midnight Sunday. He described the colonel as "seriously wounded" but said he would recover.

The first crew member — the pilot — had been rescued Friday in a separate operation conducted within hours of the shootdown. Trump said the administration withheld confirmation of that rescue to avoid compromising the second mission. "We did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation," Trump said.

The F-15E was brought down on Good Friday over southwestern Iran, marking the first U.S. aircraft shot down over enemy territory since the early days of the Iraq war in 2003. Both crew members ejected. The pilot made radio contact quickly and was extracted within hours, though a U.S. Black Hawk helicopter was struck by small arms fire during that operation, wounding crew members. The helicopter was able to fly out of Iran.

The weapons systems officer's situation was far more precarious. He was injured during ejection but could still walk, officials said. He moved away from the wreckage and climbed roughly 7,000 feet up a ridge in the Zagros range, concealing himself in a mountain crevice with little more than a pistol and his survival training.

36 Hours on the Run

Iranian forces immediately mobilized to find him. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sent units into the region. Local authorities urged civilians to assist in the search. Merchant groups offered a bounty of roughly $60,000 — more than 10 times the average Iranian household income — for information leading to his capture.

While the colonel hid, American MQ-9 Reaper drones maintained a protective perimeter, striking Iranian forces and vehicles that approached within two miles of his estimated position. U.S. Air Force jets conducted additional strikes against Iranian convoys closing in on the area.

The CIA launched a deception campaign on Saturday, planting intelligence through multiple sources inside Iran that the airman had already been found and was being moved overland toward a maritime exfiltration point. A senior administration official said the ruse was designed to buy time while the agency used what it described as "unique, exquisite capabilities" to narrow the colonel's location.

There was initial concern that the emergency beacon signal could be an Iranian trap. Once the CIA confirmed Saturday morning that the signal was genuine, the precise location — a specific mountain crevice — was shared with the Pentagon and the White House. Trump ordered an immediate rescue.

The Extraction

The operation launched Saturday night and stretched into Sunday. SEAL Team 6 and other elite special operations units entered Iranian territory under cover of darkness, supported by a high volume of air cover and real-time CIA intelligence. U.S. attack aircraft bombed and strafed Iranian roads and positions to prevent IRGC forces from reaching the rescue site.

The commandos pushed toward the colonel's position on foot, triggering firefights with local militia and IRGC fighters along the way. U.S. forces also engaged in skirmishes with local tribesmen during the hunt. Despite the intensity, no American rescuers were killed or wounded, officials said.

Multiple transport aircraft — believed to be MC-130J Commando IIs, specialized high-tech planes used in special operations — landed at a hastily constructed forward airstrip inside Iran, south of Isfahan, some 200 miles inside the country. Isfahan houses much of Iran's missile and army infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and the last of its fleet of F-14 fighter jets.

Two of the MC-130Js became stuck at the forward airstrip and could not take off. Rather than risk sensitive equipment falling into Iranian hands, commanders ordered both aircraft destroyed in place. Each was valued at roughly $100 million. Three additional aircraft were dispatched to evacuate the stranded forces.

Photos from Iranian state media show the burned-out wreckage of multiple aircraft at the site, including what appear to be two MH-6/AH-6 Little Bird helicopters used in special operations. A total of four such helicopters were likely delivered to the landing site to provide close air support and force protection.

The injured colonel was flown to Kuwait for medical treatment approximately seven hours after the mission began. All U.S. personnel involved were safely out of Iran by early Sunday.

Additional Aircraft Losses

The rescue operation compounded what was already the most significant series of U.S. aircraft losses since the war began on February 28. In addition to the F-15E and the destroyed transport planes, an A-10 Warthog attack aircraft providing cover was struck by enemy fire on Friday near the Strait of Hormuz and went down. Its pilot ejected safely and was recovered. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were also shot down by Iranian forces during the operation.

The losses undercut claims from the administration that the U.S. has unchallenged air superiority over Iran. Trump maintained that the successful recovery of both crew members without American casualties proved "overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies." Military analysts noted that Iran clearly retains some capability to target and bring down American aircraft.

Retired General Frank McKenzie, a former head of U.S. Central Command, offered a more measured assessment. "If you're at Central Command, you've got to be reasonably satisfied with where you are right now," McKenzie said. "When I was the CENTCOM commander, if you had given me this situation at plus-30 days, I would have rejected it as being too optimistic by far."

Israel confirmed that it assisted in the operation, providing intelligence and establishing what officials described as a "ring of fire" around the rescue area. Israeli forces halted their own strikes on Iran during the mission to avoid complicating the operation.

What It Means for the War

The shootdown of the F-15E and the two-day rescue mission represent the most significant ground operation by U.S. forces inside Iran since the war began. The capture of an American service member by Iranian forces would have immediately changed the dynamics of the conflict — both on the battlefield and in Washington, where congressional skepticism of the war is growing.

Instead, the administration is framing the operation as a demonstration of American capability. Trump said he would hold a press conference with military officials at the White House on Monday to discuss the rescue in detail.

The events unfolded against the backdrop of Trump's escalating ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, he warned Iran that "all hell will reign down" if the strait is not reopened within 48 hours — a deadline that expires Monday. He followed up Sunday with a profanity-laced post demanding Iran "open the f------ Strait" and threatening to make Tuesday "Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one."

Iranian officials dismissed the threats. "Iranian society generally does not pay attention to his statements," Iran's culture minister told reporters.

Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed and more than 300 wounded since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28. Diplomatic efforts have shown little progress in recent days, two sources familiar with indirect talks said. The rescue of both airmen removes one potential flashpoint — but the war's trajectory remains uncertain, and the Hormuz deadline is now hours away.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Pakistan Hosts Regional Powers For Talks On Iran War

• Israeli PM Orders Military Expansion Deeper Into Southern Lebanon

• DHS Enters 45th Day Of Shutdown, The Longest In History

Pakistan Hosts Regional Powers For Talks On Iran War

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al Saud meets Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator Mohammad Ishaq Darin Islamabad, Pakistan, March 29, 2026. (Saudi Press Agency)

_{By: Atlas}

Pakistan convened foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in Islamabad on Sunday for two days of talks aimed at brokering an end to the war in Iran and restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The gathering represents the most concentrated diplomatic effort by regional powers since the U.S.-Israeli air campaign began a month ago, and it positions Islamabad as the primary intermediary between Washington and Tehran in a conflict that has killed more than 3,000 people and sent global energy markets into turmoil.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said after the first day of discussions that the ministers had covered "possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region" and had been briefed on potential direct U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad. He said all sides had expressed confidence in Pakistan's role as a mediator and added that China "fully supports" the initiative.

"Pakistan will be honored to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides in coming days, for a comprehensive and lasting settlement of the ongoing conflict," Dar said in a video statement posted on X.

It was not immediately clear whether the United States or Iran had agreed to attend any such talks. Iran has publicly denied that direct negotiations with Washington are taking place, though President Trump has repeatedly claimed otherwise.

Hormuz Proposals Take Center Stage

The first day of discussions focused heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply used to flow before Iran effectively shut it down in retaliation for the strikes that began February 28.

Sources familiar with the talks said the participating countries have floated several proposals tied to restoring maritime traffic through the strait. One Pakistani source said Egypt had forwarded proposals to the White House before Sunday's meeting that included Suez Canal-style fee structures — essentially a toll system for vessels transiting the waterway.

Two additional Pakistani sources said Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia could form a management consortium to oversee oil flows through the strait and had asked Pakistan to participate. The first source said Islamabad had not been formally asked to join and maintains that it will not.

The consortium proposal has reportedly been discussed with both the United States and Iran. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in regular contact with U.S. Vice President JD Vance throughout the crisis, sources said.

A Turkish diplomatic source said Ankara's immediate priority was securing a ceasefire, adding that "ensuring the safe passage of ships could serve as an important confidence-building measure in this regard."

Dar separately announced that Iran had agreed to allow 20 more Pakistani-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz — a small but tangible concession in a waterway that remains largely closed to international traffic. Four Indian-flagged LPG tankers have also recently completed the crossing, and two more India-bound vessels carrying roughly 94,000 metric tons of cooking gas passed through safely over the weekend.

Pakistan's Role as Go-Between

Pakistan has emerged as the central diplomatic channel in the conflict by leveraging something few other countries possess: functional relationships with both sides. Islamabad shares a border with Iran and maintains close ties with Tehran. At the same time, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Munir have cultivated a personal rapport with Trump, and Pakistan's intelligence and military establishments have long-standing connections to Washington.

Sharif said Saturday that he held a conversation lasting more than an hour with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as part of preparations for the Islamabad talks. Pezeshkian's office said the Iranian president had "thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts to stop the aggression against the Islamic Republic."

Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Friday that he expected a direct U.S.-Iran meeting in Pakistan "very soon," though he did not reveal his source.

Pakistan had previously offered to host negotiations after Trump submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran through Pakistani intermediaries earlier in the week. That proposal — which called for a full rollback of Iran's nuclear program, the reopening of Hormuz, and an end to Tehran's proxy strategy — was publicly rejected by Iran, which issued its own set of counter-demands.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said Sunday that the four ministers had also discussed the economic fallout from the war, including disruptions to international shipping, supply chains, food security, and rising energy prices.

A War That Keeps Expanding

The diplomatic push in Islamabad is happening against a worsening military backdrop. About 2,500 U.S. Marines arrived in the region over the weekend. The Pentagon is weighing the deployment of an additional 10,000 ground troops, and the 82nd Airborne Division has already been ordered to the Middle East. Iran has warned the United States against launching a ground attack.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels entered the war on Saturday, launching their first attacks on Israel since the conflict began. The Houthis' involvement raises the prospect of further disruption to global shipping if they resume targeting vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea, through which approximately 12 percent of the world's trade normally passes.

Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have also intensified drone and missile attacks on U.S. positions, including overnight strikes targeting the U.S. consulate and nearby bases in Irbil, the capital of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Iran's navy commander warned Sunday that the USS Abraham Lincoln would face shore-to-sea missile fire if it entered what he described as Iran's strike range. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps also threatened to target American universities in the Middle East, claiming U.S.-Israeli strikes had destroyed two Iranian universities.

More than 3,000 people have been killed since the war began. Oil prices continue to surge, and Brent crude remains near $100 a barrel — up roughly 40 percent since February 28.

What Comes Next

The Islamabad talks are scheduled to continue into Monday. Whether they produce anything beyond a communiqué depends largely on factors the four foreign ministers in Pakistan do not control — primarily, whether Washington and Tehran are willing to sit across from each other.

The U.S. has sent a 15-point ceasefire plan. Iran has rejected it. Trump has claimed negotiations are underway. Iran has denied it. Pakistan says it is ready to host. No date for direct talks has been set.

The consortium proposal for managing the Strait of Hormuz offers a potential off-ramp on the most economically damaging dimension of the conflict. But any arrangement would require Iranian cooperation — and Tehran has shown little willingness to relinquish its leverage over the waterway while bombs are still falling on its territory.

For now, the Islamabad gathering is the closest thing the region has to an organized peace process. Dar framed it in those terms Sunday, saying the talks represented "the beginning of a critical process" built on the only viable path forward: "diplomacy and dialogue."

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Cuba Gov To Trump: Our Military Is Prepared

• French Elections Yield Mixed Results For Socialist & Right Wing Parties

• ICE Agents Installed At Airports As Gov. Shutdown Lingers

Cuba Gov To Trump: Our Military Is Prepared

Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio (EPA)

_{By: Atlas}

Cuba's deputy foreign minister said Sunday that the island's military is actively preparing for the possibility of a U.S. military attack, the most direct public acknowledgment yet that Havana is treating American threats as something more than political noise.

"Our military is always prepared," Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío said in an interview on NBC's Meet the Press. "And in fact it is preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression. We would be naive if, looking at what's happening around the world, we did not do that. But we truly hope that it doesn't occur."

Fernández de Cossío declined to provide specifics on what those preparations entailed. He also sought to frame the military readiness as precautionary rather than anticipatory, adding that Cuba has "historically been ready to mobilize, as a nation as a whole, for military aggression" and that Havana does not see an attack as probable. "We don't see why it would have to occur and we find no justification whatsoever," he said.

The remarks came days after President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric toward Cuba in Oval Office comments. "I do believe I'll be having the honor of taking Cuba," Trump told reporters. "Whether I free it, take it — I think I could do anything I want with it." Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel had separately warned earlier in the week that any attempt to force a leadership change would meet with "impregnable resistance."

The Pentagon's Position

While Cuba is raising its military posture publicly, the top American commander for Latin America told lawmakers on Thursday that the U.S. military is not rehearsing an invasion or actively preparing to take over the island.

Gen. Francis Donovan, the head of U.S. Southern Command, said current planning is focused on three specific contingencies: protecting the U.S. Embassy in Havana, defending the naval base at Guantanamo Bay, and supporting the Department of Homeland Security in the event of a large-scale migration crisis from Cuba.

That assessment draws a sharp contrast with the tone coming from Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who have both suggested Cuba's leadership is running out of road. Rubio said last week that Cuba's rulers "don't know how to fix" the country and that the concessions Havana has offered — releasing a small number of political prisoners and proposing to open the economy to investment from Cuban Americans abroad — were "not dramatic enough."

Blackouts, Blockade, and the Energy Crisis

The backdrop to the diplomatic standoff is an island in acute economic distress. Cuba has suffered at least seven nationwide power outages since 2024, including two complete grid collapses in a single week in mid-March. Saturday's blackout came while Fernández de Cossío's interview had already been taped. By Sunday afternoon, two-thirds of Havana had power restored, the capital's electricity company confirmed. Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz announced late Sunday on social media that the National Electric System had been restored, but authorities cautioned that demand would still exceed supply.

No oil has been imported to Cuba since January 9, following Trump's threat to impose tariffs on any country that exports fuel to the island. Cuba has relied heavily on Venezuelan oil since Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, with Caracas subsidizing the Cuban economy through below-market energy deliveries for more than two decades. That supply ended when U.S. special forces captured then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, after which the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez agreed to halt shipments to Cuba as part of its cooperation with Washington.

Cuba produces roughly 40 percent of its own petroleum but cannot generate enough to meet domestic demand. LSEG ship-tracking data reviewed earlier this month showed Cuba received only two small vessels carrying oil imports this year — one fuel delivery from Mexico in January and a liquefied petroleum gas shipment from Jamaica in February.

Fernández de Cossío called the fuel situation "very severe" and accused the United States of threatening other countries "with coercive measures" to prevent them from exporting oil to Cuba. "We do hope that fuel will reach Cuba one way or the other and that this boycott that the United States has been imposing does not last and cannot be sustained forever," he said.

The Lines Cuba Is Drawing

Despite the ongoing dialogue between Havana and Washington — confirmed by both sides and led on the U.S. side by Secretary Rubio — Fernández de Cossío made clear Sunday that Cuba has drawn firm lines on what is and is not negotiable.

Regime change is off the table. "The nature of the Cuban government, the structure of the Cuban government, and the members of the Cuban government are not part of the negotiation," he said. The release of political prisoners, a central U.S. demand, is also not on Cuba's agenda for the bilateral talks. "We are in dialogue with the United States to talk about bilateral issues," Fernández de Cossío said. "We're not talking about prisoners."

Cuba's ambassador to the United Nations, Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, separately told Bloomberg that his country would not remove Díaz-Canel to satisfy American demands. "Cuba is a sovereign country and has the right to be a sovereign country and has the right to self-determination," Fernández de Cossío added. "Cuba would not accept to become a vassal state or a dependent state from any other country or any other superpower."

He also pushed back on Rubio's assertion that the Cuban government would collapse "on its own," pointing to the resources Washington has directed at pressuring the island as evidence that a natural collapse is not what U.S. officials actually believe is happening. "Why does the U.S. government need to employ so many resources, so much political capital, so many human resources, to try to destroy the economy of another country?" he asked. "Evidently, it implies that the country does not have the characteristics to collapse on its own."

Cuba "is not in a state of collapse," he said. "We're being as creative as possible."

Trump has previously told reporters aboard Air Force One that he intends to turn his attention to Cuba after wrapping up the Iran war. His administration has not been more specific than that about the timeline or the methods it would consider.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Sec. Bessent Leads Talks With China On Trade Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

• U.S. Invokes Defense Production Act To Restore Oil Operations In California

• Trump Calls On Coalition Of Countries To Open Hormuz

Sec. Bessent Leads Talks With China On Trade Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (AP)

_{By: Atlas}

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sat down Sunday with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the headquarters of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, opening a two-day round of trade negotiations that both governments are treating as the last major preparatory session before President Donald Trump travels to Beijing at the end of the month.

The first day of talks began at 10:05 a.m. local time, broke for lunch, resumed at around 2:15 p.m., and concluded at 6:02 p.m., when the Chinese delegation departed without speaking to reporters. Neither side issued a public statement on the substance of the day's discussions. The talks are set to continue Monday before the U.S. delegation departs. The White House has confirmed Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2 — the first trip by an American president to Beijing in nearly a decade — though Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates, consistent with its standard diplomatic practice.

He was accompanied by Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang, China's top international trade negotiator, and Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. The combination of economic and trade officials on both sides signals that the Paris sessions are meant to produce concrete proposals for the two leaders to consider, not simply to open a channel of dialogue.

What's on the Table

Two sources familiar with the talks described the first day's atmosphere to Reuters as "remarkably stable" and "candid and constructive." The sources said discussions touched on agriculture, critical minerals, and the potential establishment of formal bilateral trade management structures — two proposed bodies that have been designated internally as a "Board of Trade" and a "Board of Investment."

The Board of Trade, described as the more developed of the two proposals, would be aimed at identifying sectors where the U.S. and China could expand trade in a balanced way without compromising each other's national security or critical supply chains. The Board of Investment would deal with discrete investment disputes as they arise, rather than setting broad investment policy.

On agriculture, the Chinese side showed openness to purchasing additional U.S. farm goods — including poultry, beef, and non-soybean row crops — beyond what is already committed. China remains committed to buying 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually for each of the next three years, one of the sources said.

U.S. officials pressed the Chinese delegation on Boeing jetliner purchases and American coal, oil, and natural gas exports, which could be taken up further on Monday. Bessent and Greer also raised the issue of yttrium, a rare earth element used in jet engine turbines, flagging a shortage of access for the U.S. aerospace industry. The sources said the two sides "found some ways to loosen up" on some of the more difficult critical minerals questions but offered no specifics.

Bessent said Thursday, announcing the talks, that his team would "continue to deliver results that put America's farmers, workers, and businesses first." Greer, speaking before departing for Paris, said the goal was stability. "Like a lot of our meetings we've had with the Chinese over the past year, we want to ensure continued stability in the U.S.-China relationship," he told CNBC on Thursday. "We want to make sure that we continue to get the rare earths we need for our manufacturing base, that they keep buying the kinds of things they should be buying from us."

The Iran Factor

The Paris talks are unfolding against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, now in its third week, which has sent oil prices above $100 a barrel and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Iran's closure of the strait is a particular pressure point for China, which receives roughly 45 percent of its oil through that waterway.

Trump on Saturday urged China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz "open and safe." Washington also struck Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil export terminal — in what the administration described as a targeted military operation against Iranian energy infrastructure used to fund the regime's war effort.

Beijing has condemned the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and criticized the broader U.S.-Israeli campaign, while also expressing displeasure at Iranian strikes against Gulf Arab states. That dual posture has left China in an uncomfortable position: opposed to the war in principle, but not in a position to absorb an indefinite disruption to its energy supply.

Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis and research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, said the Iran conflict adds a new layer of complexity to negotiations that are already dense with unresolved issues. "Iran is a new factor, but Beijing is more concerned about the flip-flopping of U.S. policies," Ng said before the talks began. The key question, he said, is "whether China and the U.S. can agree on what is agreed and manage disagreement."

A Fraught Legal Backdrop

Sunday's session was also the first time the two delegations have met since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping global tariffs, which had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and had threatened levies as high as 145 percent on Chinese goods. The court ruled Trump lacked the statutory authority to use that mechanism.

In response, the administration imposed a flat 10 percent across-the-board tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which can remain in effect for 150 days. Greer's office has since launched two additional investigations under Section 301 — one targeting industrial overcapacity among 16 trading partners including China, announced March 11, and a second, announced March 13, examining whether 60 economies have done enough to eliminate forced labor from their export supply chains.

China's commerce ministry pushed back on both probes, calling on Washington to resolve concerns through dialogue and reserving "the right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its rights and interests." The ministry said the Paris talks would cover "economic and trade issues of mutual concern" without specifying further.

The current Paris session is the sixth round of high-level bilateral trade negotiations since Bessent and He first met in Geneva in May 2025. Subsequent meetings followed in London, Stockholm, Madrid, and Kuala Lumpur — a run of sessions that produced the November truce under which both sides reduced tariffs and eased export restrictions. That truce was later formalized at the Trump-Xi summit in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025.

Scott Kennedy, a China economics specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was measured in his expectations for Paris. "Both sides, I think, have a minimum goal of having a meeting, which sort of keeps things together and avoids a rupture and re-escalation of tensions," he said.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Iran Elects Successor

• Israel Renews Assault Against Lebanon

• Former Rapper Leads Massive Political Shift In Nepal Election Win

Iran Elects Successor

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Morteza Nikoubazl - NurPhoto via Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

Iran's Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei — the 56-year-old son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — as the Islamic Republic's third supreme leader on Sunday, just over a week after his father was killed in the opening strikes of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign. The announcement, carried by Iranian state media just after midnight local time on March 9, came despite explicit warnings from President Donald Trump that the choice would be unacceptable to the United States.

"By a decisive vote, the Assembly of Experts appointed Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei as the third Leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran," the 88-member clerical body said in a formal statement.

In selecting Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's clerical establishment signaled a determined continuity of hardline rule at a moment when the country's military infrastructure is under sustained attack and its senior leadership ranks have been substantially thinned.

Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei

Despite having never held an elected or formally appointed government position, Mojtaba Khamenei had long been considered a likely contender for his father's seat. U.S. diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s described him as "the power behind the robes" — serving as a principal gatekeeper to his father, building his own networks within the state, and positioning himself within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary force.

Born in 1969 in the city of Mashhad, Mojtaba came of age as his father rose to prominence in the post-revolutionary establishment. He fought briefly in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s and later studied at the seminary city of Qom. As his father's rule matured, so did his influence. A 2008 U.S. diplomatic cable described him as "a capable and forceful leader and manager" who was widely viewed within the regime as a plausible candidate for shared leadership following his father's death.

He had also been accused of playing a behind-the-scenes role in Iranian electoral politics, with opposition figures alleging his involvement in the disputed 2009 presidential elections that triggered the Green Movement protests. Those allegations were never adjudicated, but the U.S. Treasury Department took note: in 2019, the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Mojtaba Khamenei for representing the supreme leader in an official capacity and for working to "advance his father's destabilizing regional ambitions and oppressive domestic objectives."

A Succession Under Fire

The process of selecting a new supreme leader played out under extraordinary conditions. The Assembly of Experts was reportedly targeted twice by Israeli airstrikes during deliberations — once at its headquarters in Tehran and once at its main building in Qom — prompting the body to hold discussions and conduct its vote virtually.

According to an individual close to Iran's clerical establishment with knowledge of the closed-door proceedings, the assembly had reached its decision days before the announcement was made but remained divided over whether to go public during wartime. Many members believed that doing so exposed the new leader to immediate targeting, a concern reinforced by an Israeli Defense Forces statement issued before the announcement: "Israel will continue to follow any successor and anyone who seeks to appoint a successor," the IDF said, adding that it would "not hesitate to target" participants in the selection process.

Mojtaba Khamenei's wife, Zahra Haddad Adel — who came from a family long associated with the theocracy — was reportedly killed alongside his father in the initial strike on the supreme leader's Tehran compound.

Trump's Reaction and Washington's Position

Trump had been unequivocal about his opposition to a Khamenei succession. "Khamenei's son is a lightweight. Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me," he said in an interview with Axios days before the announcement. "We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran." In a separate interview with ABC News on the day of the announcement, Trump warned that the incoming supreme leader "is not going to last long" without U.S. approval.

U.S. officials stated they had no intention of entering diplomatic talks with Iran while the military operation remained ongoing.

The IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, immediately backed Mojtaba Khamenei following the announcement, pledging obedience to the new leader. The IRGC's statement notably highlighted his relatively young age for the role, describing him as "a young intellectual and well-versed in political matters." His father had assumed the position at 50; Mojtaba takes it at 56.

What His Selection Means

The new supreme leader inherits command of Iran's military at war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium estimated at approximately 450 kilograms of 60-percent-enriched material — a quantity that, according to nuclear experts, could be used to produce a nuclear weapon. One of the stated objectives of the U.S.-Israeli operation is to prevent Iran from advancing that capability.

Analysts noted that the choice of Mojtaba Khamenei, given his deep ties to the IRGC and his history of operating within the security establishment, suggests the regime has no intention of accommodating Washington's demands. "The appointment shows the Iranian regime is hardening and doubling down," said Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. At the same time, Ben Taleblu noted that Mojtaba had not been seen in public since the war began, and that Iran had yet to hold a public funeral for his father — signs, he said, that despite the defiant posture, "the regime is still fighting, but it is also afraid."

For Iran, the selection marks only the second transfer of supreme leadership since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 — and the first that resembles hereditary succession, a model the revolution itself was established in opposition to.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• ‘Operation Fury’ Leads To Complete Middle East Shakeup

• Emergency U.N. Security Council Meeting Leads To Verbal Clashes

• Trump Campaigns On ‘American Energy Dominance’ Ahead Of Primary Voting

‘Operation Fury’ Leads To Complete Middle East Shakeup

This official White House photograph shows US President Donald Trump (2L), US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (3R) and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles (2R) The White Houe)

_{By: Atlas}

The United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran early Saturday morning, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of the country's most senior military and intelligence officials in the opening hours of an operation the U.S. military has designated Operation Epic Fury. The strikes represent the most significant American military action against Iran in decades and have triggered a wave of Iranian counterattacks against U.S. military installations across the Middle East.

Three American service members have been killed and five others seriously wounded. Several additional troops sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions. The operation, which U.S. Central Command described as fluid and ongoing through Sunday, came after negotiators failed to reach a nuclear deal during talks in Geneva that concluded without a breakthrough on February 26.

The Opening Strike and the Death of Khamenei

The joint operation began at approximately 8:45 a.m. local time Saturday — in broad daylight — when U.S. and Israeli forces simultaneously targeted two separate gatherings of senior Iranian officials. The timing was not incidental. Israeli military spokesman said the attack was designed to "seize an operational opportunity" to strike multiple regime leadership figures at once.

Khamenei, 86, who had ruled Iran as supreme leader since 1989, was killed in strikes targeting his leadership compound and residence in downtown Tehran. Satellite imagery showed heavy damage to the compound in the aftermath. Killed alongside him were Lt. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of the general staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh; and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, according to Iranian state media. Trump said Sunday that 48 Iranian leaders were killed in the opening strike alone.

The CIA had been actively tracking Khamenei's location for months in preparation for the operation, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity. Trump, in a Truth Social post on Saturday, said the United States and Israel "worked closely and employed sophisticated tracking technologies" to locate Khamenei and other officials.

"There was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do," Trump wrote. He also directed a message at the Iranian people: "This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country."

The Scale of the Air Campaign

Within the first 24 hours, U.S. and Israeli forces struck more than 1,000 targets inside Iran. U.S. Central Command said the targets included the IRGC's headquarters, air defense systems, ballistic missile launch sites, naval ships — including submarines — command and control centers, and Iranian military communications infrastructure.

The assets deployed included B-2 stealth bombers, F-18, F-16, F-22, and F-35 fighter jets, A-10 attack aircraft, EA-18G electronic jamming jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Tomahawk land attack missiles. More than 200 Israeli jets participated in the opening hours of the operation, launching over 500 munitions, according to the Israeli Defense Forces.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, an international nuclear weapons monitoring organization, reported that more than 30 known nuclear sites and 17 missile sites inside Iran were struck or targeted within the first 24 hours. Among the sites hit were the Isfahan research and conversion plants, uranium enrichment infrastructure in Qom Province, and sites in Tehran linked to command and intelligence operations. B-2 stealth bombers struck hardened ballistic missile facilities using 2,000-pound bombs.

Trump announced Sunday that U.S. forces sank nine Iranian naval ships, including an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette confirmed by CENTCOM as struck at the port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. Iran's naval headquarters was also largely destroyed, Trump said.

"We are going after the rest," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea."

Israel's parallel operation, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion, is running concurrently with the U.S. campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that attacks on Tehran would be escalated in the coming days.

Iran's Retaliation and Regional Fallout

Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched its retaliatory campaign, dubbed True Promise 4, targeting U.S. military installations across the region. The Guard said it struck the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. Additional targets in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Israel were also struck.

The UAE's Ministry of Defense reported that 137 Iranian ballistic missiles and 209 Iranian drones were launched at the country. Of those missiles, 132 were destroyed and five fell into the sea. Of the drones, 195 were intercepted, with 14 falling within UAE territory and waters, causing what the ministry described as "some collateral damage." One person of Asian nationality was killed in the first wave of strikes on the UAE.

In Israel, nine people were killed and dozens wounded in a strike on Beit Shemesh, with Israeli police reporting 11 others unaccounted for. Explosions were heard across Tel Aviv, attributed to missile impacts or interceptions. Gulf states collectively reported shooting down more than 1,500 Iranian missiles and drones combined. Iran also declared the Strait of Hormuz "effectively closed," a move that sent oil prices sharply higher.

Inside Iran, more than 200 people have been killed since the strikes began, according to Iranian officials. At least 165 of those deaths occurred when a strike hit a girls' school in southern Iran, according to the local governor, who reported the figure to Iranian state media.

The IRGC claimed to have struck the USS Abraham Lincoln with four ballistic missiles. CENTCOM flatly denied it. "The Lincoln was not hit. The Missiles launched didn't even come close," CENTCOM posted on X, adding that the carrier continued to launch aircraft in support of ongoing operations.

Trump's Explanation and the Political Response

Trump, speaking to NBC News on Sunday from Mar-a-Lago, said the strikes were the result of Iran's refusal to compromise on its nuclear program during negotiations.

"They weren't willing to stop their nuclear research," Trump said. "They weren't willing to say they will not have a nuclear weapon."

He acknowledged the casualties plainly. "We have three, but we expect casualties. But in the end, it's going to be a great deal for the world." He said earlier in a video address that "the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for the future."

Trump said the operation was "ahead of schedule" and added that the U.S. might pause its bombardment if Iran could "satisfy us," but that it had not yet done so.

Congressional Democrats condemned the decision, arguing that Trump should have consulted Congress before ordering strikes on a country of more than 90 million people. Congressional Democrats announced plans to force war powers votes. Trump received general support from Republicans, though some in the party said the military action conflicted with his stated commitment to avoiding foreign wars.

In the aftermath of Khamenei's death, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced the formation of an interim leadership council, including himself, Guardian Council jurist member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and head of the Iranian judiciary Gholam Hossein Mohseni Eje'i.

Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday that Iran's new leadership had expressed interest in talks. "They should have done it sooner," he said. "They waited too long." Oman's foreign minister, who mediated the Geneva negotiations, said Sunday that "the door to diplomacy remains open."

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Death Of Cartel Leader Sparks Statewide Chaos In Mexico

• E.U. States ‘A Deal Is A Deal’ Amid SCOTUS Ruling On Tariffs

• Analysis: Zohran Mamdani vs The State

Death Of Cartel Leader Sparks Statewide Chaos In Mexico

Police officers securing an area in Zapopan, Mexico, on Sunday Feb 22nd 2026 (Gilberto Gallo - Reuters)

_{By: Atlas}

The most wanted drug lord in Mexico is dead, and Mexico is paying the price.

Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — known throughout Mexico and the United States as "El Mencho" — was killed Sunday during a military operation in Tapalpa, a small town in Jalisco state. He was 59. Mexican soldiers wounded him during the raid, and he died while being airlifted to Mexico City. The Mexican Secretariat of National Defense confirmed his death in a statement, adding that four cartel members were killed at the scene and two more died during transport. Two suspects were arrested. Armored vehicles, rocket launchers, and other weapons were seized. Three soldiers were wounded.

The U.S. State Department had a $15 million bounty on Oseguera Cervantes for years. It most likely will go uncollected.

U.S. Intelligence Contributed to the Raid

Mexico's Defense Secretariat said U.S. authorities provided "complementary information" under the bilateral cooperation framework between the two countries. The U.S. Embassy confirmed American intelligence supported the operation, though Mexican special forces led and executed it.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, who previously served as ambassador to Mexico, called it "a great development for Mexico, the U.S., Latin America, and the world." The operation came after more than a year of sustained pressure from Washington on President Claudia Sheinbaum's government to take harder action against the cartels. The Trump administration had designated the Jalisco New Generation Cartel a foreign terrorist organization earlier this year.

What Happened After the Raid

Cartel members responded fast. Within hours, burning vehicles were blocking highways across Jalisco. The tactic is standard cartel procedure — disrupt roads, choke military movement, and signal that the organization is still standing.

Guadalajara (city within Jalisco) went quiet. The city, one of Mexico's largest and a host site for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, was largely emptied out by Sunday night as residents stayed home. Puerto Vallarta, the coastal resort town that draws hundreds of thousands of tourists annually, saw smoke rising over the city while frightened visitors posted videos online describing what they called a war zone. People were seen sprinting through the Guadalajara airport.

Governor Pablo Lemus suspended public transportation and told residents to stay inside. Schools in Jalisco and several neighboring states were canceled Monday. A statewide code red was issued. Public events were called off.

The U.S. State Department warned American citizens in Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Nuevo Leon to shelter in place. Canada issued similar warnings, specifically advising its citizens in Puerto Vallarta to stay where they were and keep a low profile.

Air Canada, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest, WestJet, and Aeromexico all suspended flights to Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and Manzanillo as the situation developed on the ground.

Who He Was

Oseguera Cervantes co-founded the CJNG around 2007, building it from a regional outfit into what the FBI now considers Mexico's most powerful trafficking organization. He was a former police officer and avocado farmer. He was convicted in a California federal court in 1994 on conspiracy to distribute heroin charges, served nearly three years, then returned to Mexico and kept going. He was indicted multiple times in Washington, D.C. on drug trafficking and weapons charges.

He kept himself nearly invisible for years. There were no recent photographs. He gave no interviews. His cartel, however, was anything but invisible — responsible for the bulk of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, and fentanyl entering the United States, with an established footprint in all 50 states. The DEA considered it equal in power to the Sinaloa Cartel.

The Question of What Comes Next

His brother is in a U.S. prison. His son, known as El Menchito, is also incarcerated. His daughter is behind bars. There is no clear successor.

That absence of an heir is precisely the problem. When Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán was taken down, the Sinaloa Cartel eventually fractured into warring factions. The same dynamic could follow here, with regional CJNG bosses competing for control of an organization that moves billions of dollars in product annually.

Mike Vigil, the former chief of international operations at the DEA, was direct on this point. Removing a cartel's top figure, he said, does not dismantle the structure beneath it. "They have to go after the infrastructure, their logistics, the money laundering, their armed wings," Vigil said. "And they have to do it quick and they have to do it efficiently, because if not, there is going to be hell to pay in terms of violence."

Sheinbaum praised the armed forces and said coordination with state governments was in place. She also reaffirmed Mexico's position against any unilateral military action by a foreign government on Mexican soil — a pointed reference given Trump's repeated suggestions that the U.S. could act inside Mexico if necessary.

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Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Rubio Gives Munich Security Address, Delivers Firm But Conciliatory Message

• $5 Billion In Pledges Announced For Gaza Aid

• Hillary Splinters From Democrats On Immigration, Calls Mass Migration “Disruptive & Destabilizing”

Rubio Gives Munich Security Address, Delivers Firm But Conciliatory Message

Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference (Johannes Simon - Getty Images)

_{By: Atlas}

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies Saturday that the United States has no intention of abandoning the trans-Atlantic alliance, delivering a keynote address at the Munich Security Conference that marked a notable shift in tone from the administration's posture a year ago. But while the delivery was warmer, the substance remained largely unchanged — a firm insistence that Europe must spend more on defense, tighten its borders, and abandon what Rubio characterized as self-destructive policies on trade, energy, and immigration.

"In a time of headlines heralding the end of the trans-Atlantic era, let it be known and clear to all that this is neither our goal nor our wish," Rubio told the gathering of defense and security officials in the German city. "For us Americans, our home may be in the Western Hemisphere, but we will always be a child of Europe."

The line drew considerable applause from an audience that had braced for something far harsher. Last year, Vice President JD Vance used the same stage to lecture European leaders about what he called the "retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values," accusing them of abandoning commitments to free speech, religious liberty, and democratic governance. That speech shocked many in attendance and set a combative baseline for the administration's relationship with its oldest allies.

What Rubio Said — and Didn't Say

Rubio's 18-minute address leaned heavily on civilizational themes, framing the U.S.-European relationship not just in terms of military alliances and trade agreements but as a bond rooted in shared history, culture, and Christian heritage. He described the two continents as "heirs to the same great and noble civilization" and said that under President Donald Trump, "the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration."

He did not, however, walk back any of the administration's core positions. Rubio criticized what he called "mass migration" that is "transforming and destabilizing societies all across the West." He took aim at European energy policies enacted "to appease a climate cult," arguing they had impoverished the continent while competitors exploited fossil fuels to power their own economies. And he described post-Cold War trade liberalization as a "dangerous delusion" that led to deindustrialization and left Western nations "dependent on others for our needs."

"We in America have no interest in being polite and orderly caretakers of the West's managed decline," Rubio said. He added that while the U.S. is "prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference, and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe."

The speech drew on language from the Pentagon's 2025 National Security Strategy, which stated that "it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies" and warned of what it called the "real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure" in Europe.

European Leaders React

The response from European officials was mixed — relief at the tone, caution about the substance.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Rubio's remarks "very reassuring," but noted pointedly that "in the administration, some have a harsher tone on these topics," an apparent reference to Vance and other hawkish voices in Trump's orbit.

Estonia's defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, said Rubio's description of America as "a child of Europe" was "quite a bold statement." He added that the speech was "needed here today, but that doesn't mean that we can rest on pillows now. Still a lot of work has to be done."

Germany's foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, told reporters that Rubio's message was clear: the partnership remains intact, even if significant disagreements persist. "Of course, there are some questions which we will have to discuss," Wadephul said, "but in the end of the day, his message was clear that we were so successful in the past, and we should do the job once again with new threats, with new tests in the 21st century."

Not everyone was as sanguine. France's Minister Delegate for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, pushed back on what he described as a reflexive European tendency to parse every American speech for reassurance. "The worst lesson we could draw from this weekend is to say 'I can cling to some love words I heard in part of his speech and push the snooze button,'" Haddad said, urging Europe to focus instead on its own rearmament, competitiveness, and support for Ukraine.

The Pushback on 'Civilizational Erasure'

The sharpest European response came Sunday from EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who directly rejected the framing that had underpinned both Rubio's speech and the administration's national security strategy.

"Contrary to what some may say, woke, decadent Europe is not facing civilizational erasure," Kallas told the conference. "In fact, people still want to join our club, and not just fellow Europeans." She said she had been told during a recent visit to Canada that many people there had expressed interest in EU membership.

Kallas acknowledged that Rubio sent an important signal about the durability of the trans-Atlantic relationship. "It is also clear that we don't see eye to eye on all the issues and this will remain the case as well," she said, "but I think we can work from there."

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speaking Saturday, offered his own counterpoint to the administration's cultural critique, saying Europe must defend "the vibrant, free and diverse societies that we represent, showing that people who look different to each other can live peacefully together, that this isn't against the tenor of our times. Rather, it is what makes us strong."

What the Speech Revealed About the Administration's Direction

Analysts noted that while Rubio's delivery differed from Vance's, the two speeches were more complementary than contradictory. Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center observed that Rubio "did not repudiate anything in Vice President JD Vance's more pugnacious speech last year" but instead "presented the same themes in a more positive light, focusing on shared challenges facing both Europe and the United States."

Dan Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe, described the contrasting speeches as reflecting the administration's "different impulses" — one inclined to "pick new fights or engage in unresolvable culture wars," the other inclined to "take the win" on the broader argument about European defense spending and burden-sharing.

Some European diplomats remained skeptical. One former official told reporters that if the narrowest common ground the administration could identify was "our common history going back to Columbus, narrow national security interests and common civilization, that alone shows how far apart Europe and the U.S. are drifting." Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb was more blunt, saying the ideological undercurrent of Trump's "Make America Great Again" agenda is fundamentally "anti-liberal world order" and "anti-climate change."

Rubio departed Munich on Sunday for visits to Hungary and Slovakia — two countries that have moved in a more nationalist direction under their current leadership — a scheduling choice that did not go unnoticed by European lawmakers watching for signals about where Washington's real sympathies lie.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Japan’s Ruling Party Wins Super Majority In Snap Election

• U.K. PM Starmer Faces Heightened Political Pressure Amidst Chief Of Staff Resignation

• China Sentences Free Speech Advocate To Twenty Years In Prison

Japan’s Ruling Party Wins Super Majority In Snap Election

Sanae Takaichi, center, Japan's prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). (Kim Kyung-Hoon - Pool via AP)

_{By: Atlas}

Sanae Takaichi wagered her premiership on a winter snap election — called just three months after she took office — and won in commanding fashion. Her Liberal Democratic Party swept to 316 seats in Japan's 465-member House of Representatives on Sunday, well beyond the 233 needed for a simple majority and the strongest showing for the LDP since her mentor Shinzo Abe's victory in 2017.

Together with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling bloc is projected to surpass 330 seats, clearing the two-thirds threshold that would allow the coalition to override the upper chamber, where the opposition still holds sway. Exit polls published by national broadcaster NHK showed the LDP alone had already locked up its majority within 90 minutes of polls closing.

Takaichi had pledged to resign if the LDP failed to hold its majority. That scenario never came close to materializing.

The gamble carried real risk. When she dissolved parliament in January, the ruling coalition held 233 seats — a majority of exactly one. The LDP had lost its outright majority in October 2024 under her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, and had been further weakened when Komeito, its Buddhist coalition partner of 25 years, broke away in apparent objection to Takaichi's rightward tilt. She replaced Komeito with the Japan Innovation Party, a conservative outfit based in Osaka, but the new arrangement left almost no margin for error on the legislative floor.

What Takaichi had, though, was personal popularity that far outstripped her party's. Her approval ratings sat between 70 and 75 percent heading into the campaign, and she bet those numbers could carry the LDP across the finish line in a way that a more cautious strategy could not.

"Takaichi and the LDP were frustrated by the need to debate and compromise in order to pass legislation; they want an absolute majority," said Scott Foster, a Tokyo-based analyst with LightStream Research. "She called the election because her personal support was about 75%."

The opposition collapses

The scale of the victory owed as much to the weakness of Takaichi's opponents as to her own strengths. The Centrist Reform Alliance, a newly formed bloc combining the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, lost more than half the seats the two parties had collectively held going into the election. The merger, intended to present a unified alternative to the LDP, produced what one Japanese online commentator labeled "5G" — a play on the Japanese word for "old man," oji-san — a reference to its roster of aging male leaders who struggled to connect with voters.

Smaller parties fared unevenly. The far-right Sanseito party picked up a handful of seats but fell short of its targets. Team Future, a techno-optimist party founded only last May, was a surprise performer, projected to win between seven and 13 seats as an outlet for independent voters. Neither came close to threatening the LDP's dominance.

Craig Mark, a lecturer at Hosei University in Tokyo, said the result effectively gives Takaichi the ability to "override the opposition parties. Essentially, she can push through any legislation she wants, whether it's the record budget that was recently approved or defence spending."

The Takaichi factor

Part of what distinguishes Takaichi from her predecessors is biographical. Japan's first female prime minister, she does not come from a political dynasty. She has cited Margaret Thatcher as an inspiration, and her pledge to "work, work, work, work and work" has become a personal slogan. During the 16-day campaign, she covered more than 12,480 kilometers — more ground than any other party leader, according to a tally by the newspaper Yomiuri.

She has also proven unusually skilled at leveraging social media and personal branding in a political culture defined by gray-suited men. The phenomenon of "sanakatsu" — roughly, "Sanae-mania" — has driven consumer interest in products she uses publicly, from her handbag to the pink pen she writes with in parliament. Her popularity runs particularly strong among younger voters, a demographic that has historically shown little enthusiasm for the LDP.

"In large part, Japanese politics is older men who are nondescript — there is no 'Mr. Charisma' and very few real personalities — so she's a breath of fresh air," said Lance Gatling, principal of Tokyo-based consultancy Nexial Research. "She was a heavy-metal drummer and she rode motorcycles, but she is also a Japanese traditionalist."

What the mandate means for policy

With a supermajority now in hand, Takaichi has the legislative room to pursue the agenda she ran on. That includes a temporary two-year suspension of Japan's eight percent consumption tax on food — a pledge that has been popular with voters dealing with rising prices but has unnerved bond markets and investors who question how the world's most indebted advanced economy will cover the lost revenue.

"Her plans for the cut in the consumption tax leave open big question marks about funding and how she's going to go about making the arithmetic add up," said Chris Scicluna, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe.

On defense, the mandate is clearer. Takaichi has pushed for increased military spending, the lifting of restrictions on arms exports, and the creation of a new national intelligence agency. Just weeks after taking office in November, she publicly discussed how Japan might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan — the first time a sitting prime minister had done so — triggering the largest diplomatic dispute with Beijing in over a decade. China responded with economic countermeasures, including halting Japanese seafood imports and restricting dual-use exports.

The friction has not softened her posture. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told Japanese networks Sunday that he hopes to advance policies strengthening Tokyo's defense capabilities while remaining open to dialogue with Beijing.

David Boling, principal at the Asia Group, framed the result bluntly. "Beijing will not welcome Takaichi's victory," he said. "China now faces the reality that she is firmly in place — and that its efforts to isolate her completely failed."

The Trump factor and what comes next

The election unfolded with an explicit nod from Washington. On Thursday, President Donald Trump gave Takaichi what he called his "Complete and Total Endorsement" and announced she would visit the White House on March 19 — before voters had cast a single ballot. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was among the first international figures to weigh in after the results, telling Fox News that "when Japan is strong, the US is strong in Asia."

Takaichi, for her part, thanked Trump publicly on X after the results came in. "Our Alliance and friendship with the United States of America are built on deep trust and close, strong cooperation," she wrote. "The potential of our Alliance is LIMITLESS."

The relationship traces a direct line to Abe, who had arguably the closest personal bond with Trump of any foreign leader during the president's first term and who pioneered the "Indo-Pacific" strategic framework the U.S. later adopted. Abe was assassinated in 2022. Takaichi, widely regarded as his political heir, gifted Trump one of Abe's golf putters at their first meeting in Tokyo last October.

U.S.-Japan trade totaled $317 billion in 2024, and roughly 50,000 American troops are stationed across Japan — the backbone of the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific. Takaichi has committed to hundreds of billions of dollars in investment in the United States and a continued ramp-up of defense spending, positions that align neatly with the Trump administration's expectations of its allies.

What remains to be seen is whether her domestic economic promises can survive contact with fiscal reality, and whether her security posture accelerates a confrontation with China that neither side may be fully prepared for. For now, Takaichi has what she wanted: the votes to govern without compromise.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump Seeks Diplomacy Through Possible Iran Deal To Avoid War

• Pakistan Claims State Forces Neutralized 145 Militants

• Trilateral Talks To Take Place This Week For End To Russia-Ukraine War

Trump Seeks Diplomacy Through Possible Iran Deal To Avoid War

Iranian women walk past billboard adversarial to the U.S. Enqelab Square, Tehran on January 26th 2026 (Atta Kenare - AFP)

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump said Saturday that Iran is engaged in negotiations with the United States, offering the disclosure as a sign that military strikes on the Islamic Republic could be averted even as American warships continue to mass in the region.

"You could make a negotiated deal that would be satisfactory with no nuclear weapons," Trump told reporters. "They should do that, but I don't know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us."

The comments came hours before Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered his most direct warning yet to Washington, saying Sunday that any American attack would trigger a wider conflict across the Middle East.

"The Americans must be aware that if they wage a war this time, it will be a regional war," Khamenei said during a speech in Tehran commemorating the 1979 Islamic Revolution. "We are not the instigators, we are not going to be unfair to anyone, we don't plan to attack any country. But if anyone shows greed and wants to attack or harass, the Iranian nation will deal a heavy blow to them."

Trump Responds to Khamenei's Warning

Asked about Khamenei's remarks on Sunday, Trump appeared unfazed. "Of course he would say that," the president told reporters.

"But we have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there, very close, couple of days, and hopefully we'll make a deal," Trump continued. "If we don't make a deal, then we'll find out whether or not he was right."

Trump declined to say whether he had made a final decision on military action against Iran. When asked if Tehran would be emboldened if the United States backed away from launching strikes, he responded: "Some people think that. Some people don't."

The exchange marked the latest escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran as the U.S. military buildup in the region continues. Trump has threatened military action over Iran's bloody crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late December, initially sparked by the collapse of Iran's rial currency before growing into a direct challenge to Khamenei's rule.

Military Forces Converge on the Region

The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its associated strike group are currently positioned in the Arabian Sea, sent by Trump after Iran's violent suppression of demonstrations. The president described the deployment last week as "a massive armada" that was "ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary."

Iran's military leadership responded with its own warnings. General Amir Hatami, the regular army's commander-in-chief, said Iranian forces were closely watching American movements.

"They are under complete surveillance by us," Hatami said. "And since we are aware of their evil intentions, our fingers are on the trigger. If they make a mistake, without doubt they will endanger their security, the security of their forces, the security of the region, and the security of the criminal Zionist regime."

Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Khamenei, warned that any response to American military action would be sweeping. "Any military action by the United States, from any location and at any level, will be considered the start of a war," Shamkhani said. "The response will be immediate, comprehensive and unprecedented. The aggressor, the heart of Tel Aviv and all those who support the aggressor will be targeted."

Iran had reportedly planned a live-fire military drill for Sunday and Monday in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage through which a fifth of all oil traded globally passes. The U.S. military's Central Command warned against threatening American warships or aircraft during any such exercises or disrupting commercial traffic. However, an Iranian official later told reporters that media reports about the planned exercises were incorrect and that no official announcement had been made.

Diplomatic Channels Remain Open

Despite the heated rhetoric, signs of diplomatic activity have emerged. Ali Larijani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on social media Saturday that "structural arrangements for negotiations are progressing."

Qatar's premier and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, traveled to Tehran on Saturday for talks with Larijani aimed at reducing tensions in the region. The Qatari foreign ministry said he reiterated Qatar's support for "all efforts aimed at reducing tensions."

But significant obstacles remain. The two sides appear to disagree fundamentally on what can and should be negotiated. Tehran has indicated willingness to resume talks on its nuclear weapons program, while the Trump administration has insisted that Iran also limit the range and capabilities of its ballistic missiles.

Iran has rejected any discussion of its missile arsenal, viewing it as essential to its defense in the event of enemy attack. Israel, meanwhile, has not been asked to make similar concessions regarding its own missile program.

Khamenei, 86, has repeatedly ruled out direct talks with the United States. Trump pulled the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 during his first term. That agreement had offered Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for limiting its nuclear program.

Protests and Red Lines

The current tensions stem in part from Iran's crackdown on demonstrations that have swept the country since late December. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which relies on a network inside Iran, reports that over 49,500 people have been detained and at least 6,713 killed, the vast majority of them demonstrators.

Iran's government disputes those figures, putting the death toll at 3,117 as of January 21.

Trump has established two red lines for military action: the killing of peaceful protesters or the mass execution of those detained. The president said in January that he believed it was "time to look for new leadership in Iran."

Khamenei on Sunday hardened his position on the demonstrations, describing them as "a coup" that had been suppressed. "Their goal was to destroy sensitive and effective centers involved in running the country," he said, "and for this reason they attacked the police, government centers, Revolutionary Guard facilities, banks and mosques—and burned copies of the Quran."

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day war between Israel and Iran last June. Activity at two of those sites suggests Iran may be attempting to obscure satellite imagery as it tries to salvage what remains.

Trump referenced those strikes in his warning to Tehran last week: "The next attack will be far worse!"

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Canada Backs Off Free Trade Agreement With China Following Trump Tariff Threat

• China’s President Xi Initiates Purge Including Top General

• Leading Democrats Move To Withhold DHS Funding On Upcoming Vote

Canada Backs Off Free Trade Agreement With China Following Trump Tariff Threat

Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026. (Sean Kilpatrick - The Canadian Press)

_{By: Atlas}

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on January 25 that his country has no intention of pursuing a free trade agreement with China, seeking to defuse an escalating confrontation with President Donald Trump after the American leader threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods entering the United States.

"We have no intention of doing that with China or any other non-market economy," Carney told reporters in Ottawa ahead of a Liberal caucus meeting. "What we've done with China is to rectify some issues that developed in the last couple of years."

The clarification came one day after Trump issued his tariff threat on Truth Social, warning that "if Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a 'Drop Off Port' for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken."

Trump's use of the term "governor" reflected his repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, a designation he had previously applied to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trump's Warning

Trump's social media broadside on January 24 marked a sharp reversal from his initial reaction to Canada's recent trade discussions with Beijing. When Carney traveled to China from January 13 to 17 and reached agreements with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump had appeared supportive.

"That's what he should be doing and it's a good thing for him to sign a trade deal," Trump told reporters at the White House on January 16. "If you can get a deal with China, you should do that."

By January 24, however, Trump's tone had changed dramatically. "China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life," he wrote.

In a follow-up post, Trump added, "The last thing the World needs is to have China take over Canada. It's NOT going to happen, or even come close to happening!"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the administration's shifted position on January 25, saying Carney had performed "some kind of about-face" on China trade.

"We can't let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S.," Bessent said on ABC's This Week. "We have a USMCA agreement, but based on that, which is going to be renegotiated this summer, and I'm not sure what Prime Minister Carney is doing here, other than trying to virtue-signal to his globalist friends at Davos."

The Canada-China Agreements

The trade arrangements between Canada and China that sparked Trump's ire were more limited in scope than a comprehensive free trade agreement.

During his Beijing visit, Carney reached deals to lower Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 100 percent to 6.1 percent for an initial annual cap of 49,000 vehicles, with the cap growing to approximately 70,000 over five years. In exchange, China agreed to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola from 85 percent to 15 percent.

The tariff adjustments addressed retaliatory measures both countries had implemented in 2024. Canada had mirrored U.S. policy by imposing a 100 percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum. China had responded with 100 percent import taxes on Canadian canola oil and meal, along with 25 percent duties on pork and seafood.

Carney described the agreements as "going back to the future," noting that the current arrangements included new protections such as the cap on Chinese EV imports that did not exist before 2024.

"It's entirely consistent with USMCA, with our obligations, which we very much respect under USMCA, and will continue to work that way," Carney said.

Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's minister responsible for U.S. trade, emphasized in a statement that "there is no pursuit of a free trade agreement with China. What was achieved was resolution on several important tariff issues."

USMCA Constraints

Carney pointed to commitments under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement as a safeguard against broader trade arrangements with Beijing.

The USMCA includes provisions requiring member countries to notify the others before pursuing free trade agreements with non-market economies. The agreement is scheduled for its first mandatory review in July, a process that requires all three countries to agree to continue its terms.

"We have commitments under USMCA not to pursue free trade agreements with non-market economies without prior notification," Carney said.

However, U.S. officials have signaled that Canada's engagement with China could affect the upcoming renegotiations. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said during the World Economic Forum that Ottawa could risk jeopardizing the USMCA talks by seeking closer relations with Beijing.

Bessent raised similar concerns about the highly integrated nature of North American manufacturing. "The goods can cross across the border during the manufacturing process six times," he said. "And we can't let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S."

Deteriorating Relations

The tariff threat represents the latest escalation in what has become an increasingly contentious relationship between Trump and Carney.

Tensions flared publicly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where Carney delivered a speech on January 20 criticizing the decline of the rules-based international order and urging "middle powers" to band together. While he did not name Trump or the United States directly, his remarks drew a pointed response.

"Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements," Trump said during his own Davos address on January 21.

Carney rejected that characterization. "Canada and the United States have built a remarkable partnership in the economy, in security, and in rich cultural exchange," he said. "But Canada doesn't 'live because of the United States.' Canada thrives because we are Canadian."

Trump subsequently revoked Canada's invitation to join his Board of Peace, an initiative designed to oversee Gaza reconstruction and address other international conflicts.

During his China trip, Carney had described the relationship between Ottawa and Beijing as a "strategic partnership" and said progress made "sets us up well for the new world order." U.S. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy warned at the time that Canada "will live to regret the day they let the Chinese Communist Party flood the market with their EVs."

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce called for resolution of the dispute. "We hope the two governments can come to a better understanding quickly that can alleviate further concerns for businesses who face the immediate consequences of torqued up uncertainty," said the organization's Matthew Holmes.

Canada remains shielded from the most severe impacts of Trump's tariffs by the USMCA, but the agreement's upcoming review leaves considerable uncertainty about the future of North American trade relations.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• EU Issues Condemnation Of Trump Tariff Threats For Control Of Greenland

• Analysis: The ELN And Venezuela Partnership (Part 1 of 2)

• Trump Calls For New Leadership In Iran

EU Issues Condemnation Of Trump Tariff Threats For Control Of Greenland

Protest against potential U.S. occupation in Nuuk, Greenland, January 17, 2026. (Reuters - Marko Djurica)

_{By: Atlas}

The European Union convened an emergency meeting of ambassadors from all 27 member states on Sunday to formulate a response to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs targeting eight European nations that oppose American efforts to acquire Greenland.

Cyprus, which holds the rotating six-month EU presidency, called the extraordinary session for Sunday afternoon in Brussels, according to Reuters. The meeting comes after Trump announced on Saturday that he would impose a 10 percent tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland beginning February 1.

Those tariffs would increase to 25 percent on June 1 and continue to rise "until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland," Trump wrote on Truth Social. All eight nations had recently sent small military contingents to Greenland at Denmark's request as a show of solidarity.

European Council President António Costa announced plans for an extraordinary meeting of EU leaders in the coming days. "Given the significance of recent developments and in order to further coordinate, I have decided to convene an extraordinary meeting of the European Council in the coming days," Costa said Sunday evening, according to the Financial Times.

Joint Statement Rejects Tariff Pressure

The eight targeted nations issued a joint statement Sunday declaring their unity with Denmark and Greenland while warning of the consequences of continued pressure from Washington.

"Tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," the countries said in the statement, according to Reuters. "We stand in full solidarity with the Kingdom of Denmark and the people of Greenland. We are committed to upholding our sovereignty."

The nations characterized their military deployment as an effort to strengthen Arctic security "as a shared transatlantic interest" and said it poses no threat to anyone. They expressed willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States "based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the government had been in intensive dialogue with allies since Trump's announcement. "I am pleased with the consistent messages from the rest of the continent: Europe will not be blackmailed," Frederiksen said in a written statement cited by the Epoch Times.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson echoed that position. "We will not let ourselves be blackmailed," he said Saturday, adding that only Denmark and Greenland can decide issues concerning their territory, according to Reuters.

France Pushes for Unprecedented Trade Response

French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for the EU to activate its "anti-coercion instrument" for the first time since its adoption in 2023, according to French officials. The measure, unofficially referred to as the EU's trade "bazooka," can restrict access to public tenders, investments, banking activity, and trade in services for countries attempting to coerce EU members.

According to the Financial Times, EU capitals are considering €93 billion worth of tariffs or restrictions on American companies' access to the bloc's market in response to Trump's threats. The tariff list was prepared last year but suspended until February 6 to avoid a trade war. Its reactivation was discussed during Sunday's ambassadors meeting.

"There are clear retaliation instruments at hand if this continues... [Trump's] using pure mafioso methods," a European diplomat briefed on the discussion told the Financial Times. "At the same time we want to publicly call for calm and give him an opportunity to climb down the ladder."

Manfred Weber, president of the European People's Party, the largest political group in the EU Parliament, announced that the body would not approve the trade deal struck with the United States last year. "The EPP is in favor of the EU-US trade deal, but given Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage," Weber wrote on social media, according to ZeroHedge. "The 0 percent tariffs on US products must be put on hold."

European Leaders Maintain Unity

German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said "a line had been crossed" and that affected nations "must not allow ourselves to be blackmailed," according to ZeroHedge. "There will be a European response to this threat," he said.

Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel described Trump's actions as blackmail in an interview with Dutch television. "It's blackmail what he's doing," van Weel said, according to Reuters.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, considered one of Trump's closer allies in Europe, described the tariff threat as "a mistake" and said she had told the president as much in a phone call. "He seemed interested in listening," she told reporters during a trip to Korea, according to Reuters. Italy has not sent troops to Greenland.

British Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said allies needed to work with the United States to resolve the dispute but maintained that Britain's position on Greenland was "non-negotiable." "It is in our collective interest to work together and not to start a war of words," she told Sky News, according to Reuters.

Washington Maintains Position

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified the administration's stance on Sunday, stating that the United States would not "outsource our national security." He told NBC News that Europe was too weak to guarantee Greenland's security and refused to back down on the demand for American control of the territory.

"The president believes enhanced security is not possible without Greenland being part of the US," Bessent said, according to the Financial Times.

The crisis is expected to dominate discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, where Trump is scheduled to appear Wednesday and Thursday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to hold private talks with the president.

National security advisers from western countries will meet in Davos on Monday afternoon. The talks were initially set to focus on Ukraine and ongoing peace negotiations, but have been restructured to address the Greenland dispute, according to officials briefed on the preparations cited by the Financial Times.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• NATO Allies Discuss Strengthening Arctic Presence Amid U.S. Pressure on Greenland

• Trump To Cuba: Make A Deal Before It’s Too Late

• Criminal Indictment Looms For Fed Chair Jerome Powell

NATO Allies Discuss Strengthening Arctic Presence Amid U.S. Pressure on Greenland

Banners displaying the NATO logo in Brussels, Belgium April 19, 2018. Reuters - Yves Herman)

_{By: Atlas}

Britain, France and Germany are backing a joint NATO "Arctic Sentry" mission involving U.S. forces to show President Donald Trump that the alliance is actively protecting security interests in Greenland and the wider region, according to reports from multiple news outlets.

Alliance ambassadors began talks on the mission last week, and plans were discussed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on a video call last Friday, Bloomberg News reported.

A senior diplomat told The Times of London: "It was agreed that the NATO alliance needed to step up security in the high north to deter adversaries such as Russia."

The discussions come as Trump has intensified his rhetoric about acquiring Greenland, a semiautonomous region of NATO ally Denmark. Trump said Sunday night that making a deal for Greenland would be "easier" and insisted the U.S. needed to acquire it.

"One way or the other, we're going to have Greenland," he told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew back to Washington.

European allies seek to defuse tensions through diplomacy

Germany will propose setting up a joint NATO mission called "Arctic Sentry" to secure the region, according to people familiar with the plans cited by Bloomberg. The alliance's "Baltic Sentry" mission, which was launched a year ago to shield critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, would serve as a blueprint.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week, when he will address the issue of Greenland and what role NATO can play in the region's stability.

"Because security in the Arctic is becoming increasingly important, I also want to discuss on my trip how we can best bear this responsibility in NATO — in view of old and new rivalries in the region by Russia and China — together," Wadephul said in a statement on Sunday.

Lars Klingbeil, Germany's vice-chancellor, will hold talks in Washington on Monday with Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, over securing the West's access to critical raw materials and natural resources such as those in Greenland.

"We are strengthening security in the Arctic together as NATO allies. Not in opposition to each other," he told Germany's DPA news agency.

On Tuesday, Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, will meet Rubio with the aim of defusing tensions with Trump.

Britain characterizes Arctic talks as 'business as usual'

British Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said discussions about securing the high north against Russia and China were part of NATO's "business as usual" rather than a response to the U.S. military threat.

The Telegraph reported on Saturday that military chiefs from Britain and other European countries were drawing up plans for a possible NATO mission in Greenland. The newspaper said British officials had begun early-stage talks with Germany, France and others on plans that could involve deploying British troops, warships and aircraft to protect Greenland from Russia and China.

But Alexander told BBC One's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg the report "possibly reads something more into business as usual discussions amongst NATO allies than there actually are."

She said the U.K. agreed with Trump that the Arctic Circle "is becoming an increasingly contested part of the world with the ambitions of Putin and China."

"Whilst we haven't seen the appalling consequences in that part of the world that we've seen in Ukraine, it is really important that we do everything that we can with all of our NATO allies to ensure that we have an effective deterrent in that part of the globe against Putin," Alexander told the BBC.

Britain's former ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson, said he did not think Trump would take Greenland by force.

"He's not a fool," Mandelson said. "We are all going to have to wake up to the reality that the Arctic needs securing against China and Russia. And if you ask me who is going to lead in that effort to secure, we all know, don't we, that it's going to be the United States."

Diplomats dispute Trump's claims of Russian, Chinese vessels near Greenland

Diplomatic sources said the alliance had no intelligence that there was significant activity by Russian and Chinese vessels or submarines around Greenland despite Trump's claims that the island was "covered with Russian and Chinese ships."

Espen Barth Eide, Norway's foreign minister, told the NRK broadcaster this weekend: "It is not correct that there is a lot of activity from Russia or China around Greenland. There is a lot of Russian and some Chinese activity elsewhere in the Arctic including in our local areas. But around Greenland there is actually quite little."

Trump has not provided any evidence to back up his claims of Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Greenland, which Denmark disputes.

Vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic and LSEG show no Chinese or Russian ship presence near Greenland.

Denmark warns takeover would threaten NATO alliance

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the situation as "a crossroads" and "a moment of destiny" for NATO. She told a meeting in Nyborg on Sunday: "If you turn your back on NATO cooperation by threatening an ally, something we have not seen before, everything comes to an end. And I mean that."

In a joint statement by all five of Greenland's political parties on Friday night, after Trump's latest comments, the island's parliament insisted that "the future of Greenland must be decided by Greenlanders." It said: "We don't want to be Americans, we don't want to be Danish, we want to be Greenlanders."

Tensions have grown between the U.S. and Denmark since the Trump administration renewed its warnings against Greenland. Jesper Møller Sørensen, Denmark's ambassador to the U.S., fired back at newly tapped U.S. Greenland envoy Jeff Landry, who said in a social media post that the "U.S. defended Greenland's sovereignty during (World War II) when Denmark couldn't."

Sørensen responded that Denmark has always stood alongside the U.S., particularly after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, and that only Greenlanders should decide their future.

"Let's continue to address security challenges in the Arctic as partners & allies," Sørensen wrote.

Trump dismissed concerns about NATO on Sunday, proclaiming himself the savior of NATO for encouraging member countries to boost their defense spending.

"I like NATO," he said. He then questioned "whether or not, if we needed NATO, would they be there for us? I'm not sure they would."

NATO's Article 5 common defense guarantee, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on them all, has only been invoked once, in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terror attacks on the United States, leading to NATO's operation in Afghanistan.

Ed Davey, leader of Britain's Liberal Democrat Party, suggested Britain offer to deploy troops to Greenland in a joint command with Denmark.

"If Trump is serious about security, he'd agree to participate and drop his outrageous threats," Davey said. "Tearing the NATO alliance apart would only play into the hands of Putin."

It remains unclear how remaining NATO members would respond if the U.S. decided to forcibly take control of the island or if they would come to Denmark's aid.

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Rubio: ‘Oil Quarantine’ Will Be Enforced In Venezuela To Enact Change

• Kim Jong Un Authorizes Ballistic Missile Test Ahead Of South Korean Summit With China

• Prime Minister Of Denmark Urges Trump To Stop Threatening The Seizure Of Greenland

Rubio: ‘Oil Quarantine’ Will Be Enforced In Venezuela To Enact Change

Rubio on CBS’s Face The Nation, January 4th 2025 (CBS)

_{By: Atlas}

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that the United States will maintain an oil blockade around Venezuela to pressure the country's remaining leadership following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, seeking to clarify President Donald Trump's remarks that the U.S. would "run" the South American nation.

In a series of Sunday morning television appearances, Rubio framed the U.S. strategy as one of economic leverage rather than direct governance, emphasizing that American forces are not on the ground in Venezuela and that the quarantine on oil shipments provides Washington with significant influence over Caracas.

"There's a quarantine right now in which sanctioned oil shipments — there's a boat, and that boat is under US sanctions, we go get a court order — we will seize it," Rubio said on CBS's "Face the Nation." "That's a tremendous amount of leverage that we have and will continue to be in place until we see changes."

On ABC's "This Week," Rubio addressed Trump's statement more directly, saying "What we are running is the direction that this is going to move moving forward. And that is we have leverage."

Demands on remaining Venezuelan leadership

Rubio outlined a series of conditions that Venezuela's remaining government must meet before the United States considers lifting the oil quarantine.

Venezuela must sever ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Cuba, stop drug trafficking and ensure that its oil industry does not benefit U.S. adversaries, the secretary of state said.

"We have a country, potentially a very rich country, under the control of the regime that has cozied up to Iran, has cozied up to Hezbollah, has allowed narco-trafficking gangs to operate with impunity from their own territory, allows boats with drugs to traffic from their territory," Rubio said on CBS. "We are addressing that."

Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who also served as oil minister under Maduro, has been ordered by Venezuela's high court to assume control as interim president. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who was also indicted for narcotics trafficking by the United States, remains in power as well.

Trump said Saturday that Rodríguez had spoken to Rubio by phone, telling him "We'll do whatever you need."

"I think she was quite gracious," Trump said. "We can't take a chance that somebody else takes over Venezuela that doesn't have the good of the Venezuelan people in mind."

However, shortly before being ordered to assume control, Rodríguez strongly condemned the United States for arresting Maduro and his wife.

"There is only one president in this country, and his name is Nicolás Maduro," Rodríguez said in televised remarks.

Oil industry as source of leverage

Rubio cited Venezuela's dilapidated energy industry as both the source of the regime's corruption and the key to its future prosperity.

"None of the money from the oil gets to the people. It's all stolen by the people that are on the top there. That's why we have a quarantine," Rubio said on CBS.

On NBC's "Meet the Press," Rubio said the United States does not need Venezuelan oil for its own energy needs.

"We have plenty of oil in the United States. What we're not going to allow is for the oil industry in Venezuela to be controlled by adversaries of the United States," he said.

Rubio predicted "dramatic" interest from Western oil companies following Maduro's ouster.

"I haven't spoken to US oil companies in the last few days but we're pretty certain that there will be dramatic interest from Western companies," Rubio said on ABC. "Non-Russian, non-Chinese companies will be very interested. Our refineries on the Gulf Coast of the United States are the best in terms of refining this heavy crude."

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Tom Cotton said on Fox News that "many of our refineries were designed specifically" to handle Venezuelan crude.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for the fuel savings platform GasBuddy, agreed that U.S. refineries "are some of the most complex, well-positioned refineries in the world" to process Venezuelan crude.

"There's even a possibility that if things move very favorable, that you could see some interest in Gulf Coast refinery expansions should crude exports increase and become more reliable," De Haan said.

Despite having the world's largest proven reserves, Venezuela's oil infrastructure has deteriorated after decades of underinvestment. State oil company PDVSA has been plagued by mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions have further reduced production.

Administration denies U.S. is at war with Venezuela

Rubio maintained that the United States is not at war with Venezuela despite Saturday's military operation that captured Maduro.

"We don't have U.S. forces on the ground in Venezuela," Rubio said on NBC, adding that the U.S. is "at war against drug trafficking organizations," not the country itself.

He pushed back on criticism from lawmakers who said the administration should have sought congressional approval for the strikes.

"You can't congressionally notify something like this for two reasons," Rubio said on ABC. "Number one, it will leak. It's as simple as that. And number two, it's an exigent circumstance. It's an emergent thing."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries disputed Rubio's characterization, saying Saturday's operation "was not simply a counternarcotics operation."

"It was an act of war," Jeffries said on "Meet the Press."

Jeffries said there has been "no evidence that the administration has presented to justify the actions that were taken in terms of there being an imminent threat to the health, the safety, the well-being, the national security of the American people."

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Saturday he plans to force a vote on a bipartisan resolution declaring the United States "should not be at war with Venezuela absent a clear congressional authorization."

Elections called 'premature' as U.S. assesses next steps

Rubio sidestepped questions about when Venezuela might hold elections as part of a transition to democracy.

"These things take time — there's a process," he said on CBS without elaborating. "We're going to make an assessment of what they do, not what they say publicly in the interim ... but what they do moving forward."

Rubio said he views opposition candidate Edmundo González as the true winner of Venezuela's 2024 election but called immediate elections unrealistic.

"They've had this system of Chavismo in place for 15 or 16 years, and everyone's asking, why 24 hours after Nicolás Maduro was arrested, there isn't an election scheduled for tomorrow?" Rubio told CBS. "That's absurd."

On the difficulty of capturing Maduro alone, Rubio defended the operation's scope.

"It is not easy to land helicopters in the middle of the largest military base in the country, kick down his door, grab him, put him in handcuffs, read him his rights, put him in a helicopter, and leave the country without losing any Americans or American assets. That's not an easy mission," he said. "You're asking me why we didn't do that in five other places at the same time? That's absurd."

Rubio said the Trump administration will assess the remaining members of the Venezuelan government before making decisions about their status.

"The United States will retain multiple levers of leverage to ensure that our interests are protected," Rubio said. "We're going to judge everything by what they do, and we're going to see what they do."