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Explore global trade through the specialised lens of leading maritime intelligence providers. The Maritime Data Newsletter delivers timely updates and deep market insights, curated directly from our expansive network of experts.

Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• Global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbd next year (Link)

• Red Sea disruption and rising exports lift clean tanker demand to a record high in Q1 (Link)

• High-risk VLCCs drive Russian crude STS activity (Link)

• Jet Fuel demand is still recovering from the pandemic (Link)

Dry 🚢

• A Limited Recovery in Cargo Order Volumes for Coal Bound for India Could Signal Rising Demand (Link)

• Capesize C3 Route South Atlantic Overview Supply (Link)

• This is the Dry Bulk commodity that has been the least impacted by the Panama Canal drought (Link)

Other 🌍

• Hijacked cargo ship ABDULLAH released on the east coast of Somalia (Link)

• Russia’s data manipulation as a weapon of war (Link)

• Manipulated AIS positions were identified above the Israeli city of Eilat coinciding with the timing of the strikes against Israel (Link)

• Panama Canal Increase Booking Slots and Draft Limitations (Link)

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Where Do Russia’s Sanctioned Vessels Continue To Trade - Lloyds’s List Intelligence

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has directly sanctioned nearly 170 Russia-linked cargo-carrying vessels

Analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows how ships have been redeployed to continue trading, while others maintain regular voyages, revealing the limits of US sanctions programmes.

While many of the latest sanctioned ships are sailing typical routes, analysis of other blacklisted ships shows that sanctions implementation has limited potential trading partners.

In 2021, ships that are now sanctioned called at more than 100 non-Russian ports, including those in the EU and the US. Last year, sanctioned ships were welcome in just 24 foreign markets.

Still, in 2023 and so far this year, arrivals into foreign ports accounted for 14% of traceable callings.

Türkiye, Iran, India and Egypt have been the most common destinations for sanctioned ships.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence / Seasearcher. Increase in 2023 figures reflects the higher number of sanctioned ships. Data for 2024 accurate to March 22.

Since 2022, 13 different sanctioned Russian ships have made 32 calls to Egypt.

Of these vessels, 11 are sanctioned for links to companies that perform various services for Russia’s Ministry of Defence, including transporting military equipment and weaponry.

These ships accounted for 29 of the 32 calls to Egypt. The vessels often call to either El Iskandariya (Alexandria) or El Dekheila from Novorossiysk.

Voyages of vessels sanctioned on April 12, 2023

This selection of sanctioned ships shows the retreat of ships to inland ports as well as those in the Black Sea, Sea of Azov and Caspian Sea. However, it also shows the ability for these ships to call at international ports. The vessels sanctioned in this round are linked to companies involved in the facilitation of sanctions evasion through transshipment

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence / Seasearcher

Note: Before date of sanction covers April 1, 2022 to April 11, 2023

Note: After date of sanction covers April 12, 2023 to March 19, 2024

Note: Different colours represent different vessels

Impact of the Iranian Attack and Seizure of MSC Aries on Six Major Carriers - Windward

• Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on April 13, after the Iranian regime started threatening to attack Israel on April 1, following an airstrike in Syria.

• Following Iran’s missile attack, Windward’s data regarding the containers of the six major carriers (MSC, Maersk, COSCO, CMA CGM, ONE, Hapag-Lloyd) shows a 28% increase in area visits by the six major carriers in The Cape of Good Hope when comparing April 7-13 to April 14-20, 2024. The increase comes after three weeks of decreasing  area visits to The Cape of Good Hope. This is noteworthy because The Cape of Good Hope route is often used as a detour when the Red Sea is considered too risky. 

Area visits by six major carriers in The Cape of Good Hope by week, October 22, 2023-April 20, 2024.

• In addition, Windward’s data for April 7-13 showed a 600% increase in dark activities conducted by vessels of the six major carriers in the Red Sea. This marks the highest number of dark activities by these vessels since December 2023, at the height of the Houthi attacks against merchant vessels.

Dark activities by six major carriers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions by week, October 22, 2023-April 20, 2024.

• It is possible that due to the seizure of the MSC Aries and the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Arabian Gulf regions, carriers are again adopting evasive measures to keep away from possibly dangerous areas and hiding their location in potentially dangerous regions as safety measures against seizures.

U.S. Imposes Deadline on Venezuelan Oil Transactions - Kpler

In a significant policy shift, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has replaced General License 44, intensifying restrictions on transactions within Venezuela's oil and gas sector. Effective April 17, 2024, American entities now face a May 31 deadline to conclude all such transactions, marking a critical moment in U.S.-Venezuela relations ahead of the forthcoming presidential election in July.

The implications of this decision resonate deeply, particularly within the realm of oil trade. Over the past six months, Venezuela has exported approximately 30 million barrels of crude to the U.S., a flow that will now be redirected to alternative trading partners like China and India, as per data from Kpler. Similarly, imports of petroleum products, traditionally dependent on the U.S., are poised to shift towards suppliers such as Russia or Iran.

Conversely, U.S. product exports, previously earmarked for Venezuela, are now set to explore new markets in countries like Mexico, Chile, and Brazil. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of global trade alliances and the constantly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Nevertheless, lingering questions persist regarding the impact of the Venezuelan oil export ban on the flow of Russian oil into the region. Recent revelations shed light on deceptive shipping practices aimed at circumventing sanctions on Russian oil.

LIGERA feeding Russian crude oil via STS to MARBELLA

One such instance involves the vessels LIGERA (9237072) and MARBELLA (9222455), both insured by The West of England Ship Owners Mutual Insurance Association. Previously, Marine Traffic reported on LIGERA's receipt of Russian crude oil back in January. Satellite imagery from March 5, 2024, reveals a ship-to-ship transfer of 1.1 million barrels of Russian crude oil from LIGERA to MARBELLA in the anchorage of Amuay, Venezuela.

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Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• The U.S. Flexes Its Refining Muscle (Link)

• Aframax rates could face further weakening in Q2 2024 (Link)

• In the years ahead, new frontiers in the oil market could emerge (Link)

• Propane market: A look into dynamics of US exports (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Market Conditions for the Capesizes Point Towards Rising Freight Rates (Link)

• Global Steam Coal quantities discharged increase by 4% YOY (Link)

• UNCTAD expects international trade to rebound in 2024 (Link)

Other 🌍

• Electronic interference in the Persian Gulf (Link)

• War zone GPS jamming sees more ships show up at airports (Link)

• A 55% YOY increase in the number of maritime security risks (Link)

Maritime Data: 2024 Prediction Series 🔮

What will be the consequences of 60% tariffs on U.S imports from China under a Trump presidency?

According to William George, Director of Research at ImportGenius.com, this would cause an absolute logistical crisis...Register here

While most people are following the growing trend of nearshoring and friendshoring as the U.S continues to make efforts to diversify itself supply chains and reduce their reliance on China, William is focussed on a different matter...

The Iron Ore Chain is looking a little rusty Tathya.Earth 

On the demand side China seems to have caught a cold.

• China produces more than 50% of the world steel

• They imported around 1.18 billion tons of iron ore in 2023 which is close to 70% of the global iron ore import.

It is therefore the most important player in iron ore and basically drives the entire demand and price movement. Being the world’s second largest economy and with a huge push on development, manufacturing and exports, the steel finds in applications in several sectors. Below is a sector wise division of the steel consumption of China, courtesy Reuters.

China — Sector wise steel consumption

As per the above distribution, the property sector consumes the highest amount of steel in China. This sector, along with the infrastructure sector, is the backbone of the Chinese economy and any disruption here would highly impact the steel consumption and the resultant iron ore demand.

And if you have been following this sector you might have come across the following news:

• The property sector been plagued by liquidity crunches and falling sales over the last year resulting in reduced demand for steel

• The crisis has been said to deepen further as the Chinese authorities have also signaled no bailout for the struggling real estate developers.

• As per China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC), China’s top 100 developers posted total contracted sales of 185.7 billion yuan (US$25.8 billion) in February, a decline of more than 60 per cent year on year, and a fall of close to 21 per cent month on month.

How has this reduced demand impacted the steel production?

Let us check how this was reflected in Tathya.Earth’s Hebei Hot Metal Production Index.

The Hebei province, an industrial hub of China produces around 20% of the total steel of China and we monitor all the important steel mills in that region as part of our Hebei Index. The index is therefore a good indicator of the steel production in Hebei in particular and China in general. Below is the trend of the Hebei Index for the last 14 months.

Tathya Weekly Hot Metal Production Index- Hebei Province

Their data shows that the index has been steadily decreasing from 92.16 to 72.03, resulting in a drop of around 22%. Although there could be many other factors, due to the weightage of property sector in steel consumption, the major factor for reduced demand of steel would have to be the property slump.

They also went one step further up the supply chain and monitored the inventory of iron ore at the major ports of Hebei province and saw that the stockpiles have been climbing up.

This means that steel mills are not procuring enough iron ore to produce steel due to reduced demand of finished steel products. This further confirms that the slump in demand of iron ore is real and there could be a prolonged lower-than-expected recovery of the steel mills output due to the property crisis.

Inventory Index of major Iron Ore ports in Hebei Province

The slump in property and infrastructure growth has been really bad and it is leading to a decrease in steel demand which in turn is leading to a decrease in iron ore demand resulting in a decrease in iron ore price.

Adding Fuel to an Already Blazing Crisis Windward

It appears that the Baltimore crisis is starting to impact global trade. According to Freightos data displayed in Windward Port Insights, shipping prices from the U.S.’ East Coast to East Asia increased by 80% to $1,214. Although the increase began around the middle of March, the sharpest incline happened around the last week of March. The Baltimore accident occurred on March 26.

Shipping prices from the U.S. East Coast to East Asia/China (Source: Freightos/Windward Port Insights)

The increase in shipping prices is not occurring in a vacuum. The already busy route from the U.S. East Coast and Central America, via The Cape of Good Hope to East Asia, has seen enormous growth of containerized traffic due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

The monthly average of container vessels sailing the route of the U.S. East Coast to China increased by 36% when comparing Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. The opposite direction, from China to the U.S. East Coast, also shows a great increase. The monthly average of container vessels sailing this route was 1.1 in 2023. In Q1 of 2024, the monthly average increased by 627% (!).

A new oceanic area experiencing significant growth in container vessel traffic is the South Atlantic Ocean. Windward data reveals that between November 2023 and March 2024, there was a 170% increase in container vessel traffic in the South Atlantic Ocean.

For more on the growing volatility in North America, click below to read the full report:

Russian product exports – short & long-term trends & challenges Vortexa

Key report takeaways:

• Review of latest trends in Russian oil exports with a focus on products

  • Gasoil/diesel exports are inevitably set to fall

  • This is already a function of seasonal maintenance and rising domestic demand

  • Ukrainian drone attacks may aggravate the situation, but this is not a given on a year-on-year basis

• A lot of Russian product is stuck at sea currently

  • Most pronounced for gasoil/diesel and Baltic exports

  • Increased scrutiny and awareness of sanctions may be a contributing factor

• Review of long-term adjustments in Russian product exports and European (US) products flows

  • Look at diesel, light distillates, residual fuels

Russia’s total oil and product exports fall below seasonal norm since mid 2023; seasonal 0.5mbd product exports fall in the works

Any changes in Russian crude and product exports need to be assessed in the context of seasonality and longer-term averages

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Thank you for your time.

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Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• Relentless Regulations (Link)

• Almost all VLCCs have travelled the longer distance via the Cape (Link)

• Canada Opens the Floodgates (Link)

Dry 🚢

• China reduced its intake of Russian coal during the first quarter of the year, while Australia saw a surge in its export volume (Link)

• Higher European natural gas prices have increased the demand for seaborne transportation of coal to the continent’s ports (Link)

• Global iron ore flows by fleet (Link)

Baltimore Key Bridge Collapse 🌉

• Baltimore’s Big Impact: 24-Day Delay (Link)

• Marine insurers face billion-dollar payout on Baltimore bridge collapse (Link)

• Vessels Rerouting Following Bridge Collapse in Baltimore (Link)

Other 🌍

• Ship tracking in high risk areas: time for an upgrade (Link)

• Red sea update: Fresh low in Red Sea vessel activity as Mediterranean port calls fall sharply (Link)

• Sugar Export Boom: TCP Achieves 368% Increase in Early 2024 Shipments (Link)

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Learning to live with sanctions: Russian oil flows in the face of sanctions - Kpler

This is a summary created by Maritime Data from Kpler's recent special report: Learning to live with sanctions.

The landscape of Russian oil flows underwent a transformative shift in 2023, aligning with the introduction of the price cap, which redirected Russian crude oil predominantly towards Asia. The cessation of purchases by European countries paved the way for India to emerge as a leading buyer of Urals, with its intake increasing twelvefold from 2021 to 2022 and further soaring in 2023.

In a record-breaking year, Russia's seaborne flows expanded by 4%, averaging 3.504 million barrels per day (Mbd), marking the second highest pace after 2019. India's monumental rise as a purchaser was underscored by acquiring a variety of Russian crude grades, with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) leading the charge. China remained a steadfast consumer, bolstered by pipeline deliveries and a notable 35% year-over-year increase in seaborne supplies.

Europe's diminishing role was highlighted by Bulgaria's transition away from Russian crude in early 2024, impacting the overall European intake. Exploration into new markets revealed Russia's engagement with countries like Indonesia, Pakistan, and Brazil, diversifying its export destinations.

Pipeline exports witnessed a decline, particularly through the Transneft system, with a 30% year-over-year drop to 1.1 Mbd. This reduction was partly compensated by increased interest from Central Asian nations, notably Uzbekistan, which saw a tripling of Russian oil imports in 2024.

Product flows were characterized by diesel/gasoil remaining the largest export stream, with Turkey and Brazil emerging as significant importers in the wake of the European Union's sanctions. Fuel oil exports shifted towards China and India, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated refining capabilities in these markets.

Overall, the year 2023 represented a pivotal period for Russian oil flows, characterized by adaptation to sanctions, exploration of new markets, and strategic redirection towards Asia. This shift not only reflects Russia's resilience but also the dynamic nature of global oil markets.

The Restricted Panama Canal’s Effect on Global Trade - Windward

The ecological disaster caused by the sinking of the Rubymar is far from the only event affecting maritime trade. Since August, the drying Panama Canal, a vital Atlantic-Pacific shortcut, cannot accommodate the $270 billion worth of cargo that flows through it annually. This has led to significant changes in shipping patterns and vessel activity, as analyzed by Windward’s AI-driven technology.

Windward’s analysis highlights a dramatic shift in maritime traffic over the past two years:

• Container vessels and bulk carriers: both container vessels and bulk carriers have hit record lows in terms of the number of area visits. There has been a 30% decrease in area visits by container vessels owned by the six major carriers – COSCO, CMA CGM, MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE – and a 51% decrease for bulk carriers. January 2024 marks the lowest number of area visits by container vessels and bulk carriers in the past two years.

• Oil product tankers: in stark contrast, oil product tankers have seen a 39% increase in area visits, suggesting a shift in the types of vessels navigating through the altered maritime landscape caused by the canal’s restrictions.

Area visits in the Panama Canal - January 2022 - January 2024

There are three potential reasons for the discrepancy between tankers vs. container ships and bulk carriers:

1. Tankers are lighter than container ships and bulk carriers

2. Tankers are generally smaller, with mid-sized vessels like Suezmax averaging around 275 meters in length, compared to large container ships, such as the New Panamax at 366 meters

3. The Biden administration’s removal of a broad array of sanctions against Venezuela’s oil and gas sector

For a comprehensive analysis of the restricted Panama Canal’s impact on global trade, read their full report.

For more insights on the impact of the disruptive environment on global trade:

Crude tanker mileage declined in February due to less VLCC voyages East Coast Americas to NE Asia - Vortexa

Average laden completed voyage mileage for the main crude tanker classes (Aframax, Suezmax, VLCC) declined 4.2% m-o-m in February.

➔ VLCCs average mileage declined 7.1% m-o-m, while Aframax and Suezmax mileage remained relatively flat m-o-m

VLCC global mileage declined as a result of less cargoes originating in the East Coast Americas (USG and East Coast South America) arriving in Wider NE Asia in February, a voyage count decrease of 35% m-o-m.

➔ NE Asia sourcing less crude from the Americas is likely to continue, as lower than expected Saudi crude OSPs in March and April may prove attractive to Chinese buyers.

For Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, average mileage for Russian crude voyages increased 8.3% m-o-m, partially driven by more voyages from Baltic/Black Sea ports to China.

➔ However, moving forward, signs of lower employment for the fleet trading Russian crude will likely affect global laden mileage for the vessel classes

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Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil 🛢️

• Europe’s Oil Complex Copes With Supply Disruptions (Link)

• Grey Shift - The Impact of Sanctions Enforcement (Link)

• Venezuela reaches it’s 4 year high prior to April 18 Waiver Extension deadline (Link)

Dry 🚢

• February’s Brazilian iron ore shipments to China via Capesize vessels surged by 70% compared to the corresponding period last year (Link)

• Lower YoY shipments expected as Brazil’s soybean export season kick-starts (Link)

• Capesize freight rates supported by supply situation and geopolitical disruptions (Link)

Other 🌍

• 2 Years That Upended Global Trade: Russia Report (Link)

Maritime Data 2024 Prediction Series 🔮

Russell Thompson, Managing Director of Tradeviews discusses the potential decrease in coal demand from China, and what even a single percentage point decrease will have on the bulk market.

Tanker rates stand their ground against ailing trade demand - Vortexa

Despite weak trade demand, two distinct vessel supply-factors are keeping rates at healthy levels.

Despite the weaker trade fundamentals that have been observed over the past 4 months, tanker freight rates across all segments remain at stubbornly healthy levels. This can be mostly attributed to the weather and geopolitical climate which has fostered two distinct characteristics on the global vessel supply-side: lack of tonnage fluidity and longer voyage mileage.

EU operators are exiting the Russian trade, but could continued sanctioning of the dark fleet reverse the trend?

The most recent fleet behaviour of vessels linked with the Russian trade – detailed in this blog – indicates that vessels with Western links are exiting the Russian trades, wary of sanctions. Naturally, this instigates a rigidity between tiers, creating increasing difficulty for tankers to shift between Russian and non-Russian oil trades. This can be a double-edged sword in the tanker market as tonnage cannot easily move back to the mainstream trade to uplift tonnage availability and vice versa.

Yet a shift might be on the cards. Based on recent sanction activity led by the US and the UK it increasingly seems that the relevant authorities are aiming to force Russia to make use of Western operators under the cap mechanism whilst simultaneously sanctioning “dark” fleet entities (with Sovcomflot as the latest example). In this case, Russian crude would be carried by Western operators below the price cap, benefitting employment of Western-linked fleets and financially weakening Russia by severely constraining alternatives for seaborne transportation. It would also provide for much better insurance coverage and reduced environmental risks. Such a scenario would ultimately tighten the mainstream fleet further, providing support for freight rates.

Key waypoint transits are remaining low, disrupting the fluidity of tonnage and sparking rerouting between markets

Another type of tonnage rigidity – a geographical one – is taking place in the Panama Canal. Transits via the waypoint remain at low levels, effectively restricting tonnage flows between the Atlantic and Pacific Basins. Though this low number of transits was initially driven by a severe drought up until the end of 2023, an uplift has not materialised despite some improvement in weather conditions. This is mainly due to the softer demand environment currently observed in South America West Coast. Furthermore, as the dry season in the region is not over until June/July, there are no guarantees that weather-related logistical issues will not arise once again, sustaining this lack of vessel fluidity in the market.

Chart: Panama Canal (LHS) and Bab el-Mandeb (RHS) tanker transits (no. of vessels)

For completely different reasons, a similar picture is painted with respect to transits in the Bab-el Mandeb strait. There is a slight disconnect between clean and crude tanker transits numbers, as the profile of operators passing via the strait (Russian, Chinese, Middle Eastern-linked entities) are largely involved in the crude trade. Nevertheless, the majority of vessels that choose to do the East to West of Suez (or reverse) trip continue to transit via the Cape of Good Hope. 

Reshuffling patterns from geopolitical and weather events are boosting voyage distances above seasonal norms

As a result, the weather and geopolitical events, which triggered the Russian invasion reshuffling, the Red Sea rerouting, or the Panama Canal congestion, have boosted voyage distances to new highs across both crude and clean tankers.

Chart: Crude tanker(LHS) and Clean tanker (RHS) average monthly voyage mileage (nautical miles)

It is worth noting that these longer voyages occur at a time of lower tonnage fluidity between regions and between tiers, whilst scheduled tonnage deliveries for 2024 are projected to hover around historical low levels. These indications point to a tighter tonnage supply which must fulfil higher supply requirements, hence these drivers are poised to support tanker freight rates in the short to medium term, despite ailing trade dynamics. Any upside in cargo demand momentum, as expected by many in the market, would tighten the picture further. 

Ship recycling recovery not expected until second half of 2024 - Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Ship recycling volumes are unlikely to recover until at least the second half of the year, as high charter and freight rates because of Red Sea diversions have reduced the supply of tonnage to the sector.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence data shows that 61 ships of a combined 805,000 gross tonnes hit recycling beaches in the first two months of 2024. This is less than half the 1.7m gt, provided by 75 vessels, beached in January and February 2023.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

A shortage of tonnage has ensured relatively high prices paid for recycling candidates since 2022 are being maintained, although demand for recycled steel continues to be challenged by foreign exchange restrictions in important ship recycling nations.

Meanwhile, India’s local steel market has been under pricing pressure for several months with recyclers only buying ships to keep their facilities active.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Cash buyer GMS reports that major ship recycling markets were “utterly sleepy and tranquilised” in the past week with Indian subcontinent ship recyclers being provided with a “merciful collection” of smaller vessels of late.

“Given the near-total lack of market offerings, virtually no deals have been concluded, as evident from the weekly dithering traffic patterns at the various waterfronts of late, and a surprisingly lethargic India that remains puzzlingly peculiar at the bidding tables.”

“The year 2024 certainly has put the squeeze on the global ship-recycling sector,” said GMS.

The New European Union CO₂ Seaborne Emission Policy: An Additional Cost For Farmers? - AXSMarine

Maritime transport, often seen as a model of efficiency, is also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. With over 1,076 million tons of CO2 emitted annually globally, accounting for 2.9% of the world's annual emissions, its impact is comparable to that of France, Spain, and Italy combined.

Why anticipate CO2 emissions for the years ahead?

As of January 1st, 2024, significant changes have been made to CO2 emission policies in the European Economic Area (EEA). The European Union (EU) has expanded its scope by integrating maritime transport into its Emissions Trading System (ETS). This measure affects all shipments including grains and oilseeds to and from EEA, requiring ETS CO2 credits to cover cargoes related emissions.

Grains and oilseeds, based on AXSMarine data, account for 25% of all CO2 emissions from Dry Bulk goods trades to and from EEA.

Calculating CO2 emissions for Grains and Oilseeds for EEA

Intra-EEA exchanges are assessed at 100% for ship emissions calculation, while exchanges between the EEA and other countries, meaning imports and exports, are only considered at 50%. This approach aims to allow partner countries the freedom to legislate on the remaining 50% of voyages.

Intra-EEA trade for Grains and Oilseeds accounts for 17% of the total, so only for those 17% of emissions, the EU is considering 100% of the emissions. For Trades from EEA (exports) and to EEA (imports), representing together 83% of the emissions, the EU will consider only half of the emissions on those segments. Notably, the ballast legs for picking the cargo in EEA are also taken in consideration.

The EU plans a gradual implementation of the scheme, considering 40% of emissions for the first year (2024), 70% for the second year (2025), and 100% for the third year (2026).

From CO2 emissions to impact on trading houses and cooperatives

In 2023, the average price of EU ETS credits was €85 per ton of CO2, while in February 2024, it was €53 per ton. With an expected variation in 2024, shipping companies will need to prove the purchase of ETS to cover 2024 emissions by summer 2025, some companies have already begun sourcing at the current low rate, while others will source later in 2024 or even in the first half of 2025, meaning that the cost estimation remains a forecast at this stage.

Financial impact on grains and oilseeds, assuming an average ETS credit price of €85 per ton in 2024 (average price of 2023):

Source: AXSMarine

Source: AXSMarine

The additional cost of exporting grains and oilseeds from EEA to partners countries in 2024, based on 2023 trades and voyages, would range between €37m and €59m, or an additional freight cost between €0.71 ($0.76) and €1.14 ($1.23) per ton.

For 2026, this would represent between €93m and €149m in additional costs for exports from EEA, translating to an additional freight cost between €1.78 ($1.92) and €2.86 ($3.10) per ton.

Impact on the future of EEA agriculture

On one hand, agricultural production costs may increase if inputs, such as fuels or fertilizers, are subject to emission quotas, potentially reducing farmers' profit margins. On the other hand, transportation costs for agricultural products may also rise as maritime shipping companies must purchase emission credits to offset their CO2 emissions, resulting in higher freight rates.

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Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil

• The 9 Million Barrel Question (link)

• Could Venezuela’s forthcoming imports of Russian oil be a gesture of goodwill toward Washington? (link)

• Price cap ‘phase II’ was spurred by Russia selling ‘large amounts of oil’ above the cap (link)

• How the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed tanker markets (link)

• Urals fleet constraints more likely as sanctions enforcement ramps up (link)

Dry Bulk

• Rates reaching new highs since the year's outset (link)

• A Minor Rebound in Demand for Seaborne Transportation of Coal (link)

Other

• Maritime Global Trade Roundup (link)

Red Sea 🌊

Red Sea Update: Number Of Crude Tankers Transiting Bab El Mandeb Rebounds To ‘Normal’ Level Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Nearly 300 Less Ships Per Week Through Suez Canal Due To Red Sea Crisis AXSMarine

Searching for Alternative Markets to Avoid Red Sea Disruptions Dun and Bradstreet

Red Sea Subsea cables disrupted Geollect

Maritime Data 2024 Prediction Series 🔮

Fraser Robinson, CEO and Co-Founder of Beacon discusses the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment to which supply chains are inexorably linked, explains why he believes collaboration will be a key theme in 2024 for businesses involved in supply chains, and evaluates the impact he anticipates AI will have in 2024 and beyond.

Ulf Bergman, Senior Economist at ShipFix gives us his take on why he thinks there will e continued headwinds for the Chinese Economy.

Red Sea Update: Number Of Crude Tankers Transiting Bab El Mandeb Rebounds To ‘Normal’ Level Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Key data for the week ending February 25, 2024

Numbers reflect cargo-carrying vessels of 10,000dwt+. Pre-Houthi attack ‘normal’ average taken for the period November 6 - December 3, 2023.

• Vessels transiting the Bab el Mandeb strait increased by 2% week on week but in deadweight tonnage terms, it grew by 17%. The number of crude oil tankers leaped 65% week on week, returning to ‘normal’ levels

• The number of active vessels in the Red Sea was up 12% compared with the previous week, but remains 36% fewer than in the same period last year

• Suez Canal transits jumped by 24% in vessel terms and 25% in dwt terms in the most recent week

• Cape of Good Hope passings fell by 1% in vessel terms compared with the previous week but the total number is still up 78% against the normal average

Despite the increasing frequency of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea in recent weeks, the number of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000dwt increased to a daily average of 240 in the week ending February 25, up from 213 vessels in the previous week.

The number is considerably down on the 380-vessel average recorded in the same week of 2023 but may be a sign that trade in the region is reaching a degree of stability that is encouraging the return of some carriers.

Earlier this week, Lloyd’s List reported that CMA CGM sent at least one and most likely two of its vessels through the Bab el Mandeb strait last week, despite public statements that it would no longer use the route.

Total Bab el Mandeb transits increased to at least 261 vessels in the most recent week, up by around 2% from the previous seven days, with the dwt total increasing 17% to 21.9m dwt.

The increases were largely driven by crude oil tankers, with 79 vessels transiting in the week ending February 25, up from 48 the week before and above the ‘normal’ average of 78 in the weeks prior to the Houthi attacks.

However, there were significant drops for boxship traffic, down to 29 from 43 week on week, and bulk carriers – down to 97 from 113.

Weekly Bab el Mandeb transits by crude oil tankers (2023/2024):

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence / Seasearcher

Note: Week 45 starts 6 November 2023. Latest figures may be revised upwards as more AIS gap data becomes available. Only cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt (those most likely to be internationally trading) were considered

Nearly 300 Less Ships Per Week Through Suez Canal Due To Red Sea Crisis AXSMarine

Four months after what is officially considered to be the start of the Red Sea crisis, overall merchant vessel traffic through the Suez Canal has dropped by about 55% on a weekly basis. At the same time Dry Bulkers, Tankers (including Gas Carriers) and Container Ships passing via the Cape of Good Hope increased in count by up to 98%. AXSInsights data shows the different effects the crisis has had on the three main vessel markets. While Liner vessel traffic reflected the events in the Bab al-Mandab Strait as early as November last year, Dry Bulker and Tanker vessel counts through the Suez Canal were affected a couple of weeks later.

Container Ships in particular saw the heaviest drop in traffic through the Canal, with the second week of February seeing only 26 vessels crossing in either direction. This was a historic low, which during the last decade was only seen once when the MV EVER GIVEN obstructed the Suez Canal in 2021. It also represented a 76.1% year-over-year decrease, compounding the already heavy 64.4% year-over-year drop in Container Ship traffic registered throughout January.

Searching for Alternative Markets to Avoid Red Sea Disruptions Dun and Bradstreet

Continuing Evolution of Trade Patterns

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on supply chains due to lockdowns. Changes in consumer behavior almost destroyed the demand for certain products and services, and remote work trends became more widespread. The incidents currently happening in the Red Sea are contributing to disruptions in supply chains and causing Asia-Pacific exporters to shift towards new markets for goods shipped to Europe and the Middle East. The following countries have experienced a decrease in exports to Israel and other Middle Eastern countries:

Decline in completed shipments from Q3-2023 to Q4-2023 - D&B Shipping Insights

The goods most impacted by the reduction in shipments from Asia-Pacific exports over the same periods of time are as follows:

Changing Trade Routes and a New Normal

By using D&B Shipping Insights to assess whether there is a shift in markets by the countries mentioned above, interesting aspects of global trade are starting to emerge regarding the listed products. Taking an approach that examines the number of shipments over the past 24 months (ending December 2023) to alternative markets, the following exceed the average shipments of the listed products from Asia-Pacific exporters.

• China has increased their exports to Brazil and Australia above and beyond historical rates.

• Indonesia is wasting no time by increasing shipments to China and Malaysia.

• The UAE is taking advantage of markets in the United States, South Africa, and Australia.

• Taiwan has bolstered exports to Bangladesh, Japan, Mexico, and India.

• Thailand has focused on the United States and China for alternatives.

• Japan’s increased shipments above and beyond historical rates rests on Thailand’s willingness to increase dependence.

Red Sea Subsea Cables Disrupted Geollect

Bottom Line Up Front: Early on the 24th February 2024, reporting began to emerge indicating that subsea cables had been damaged in the Red Sea, in close proximity to the epicentre of Houthi targeting against shipping. It is unclear how severe such disruption is, but presently it is reportedly affecting internet traffic flow between Africa and Europe. There is a realistic possibility the Houthi group are responsible, but further investigation is required.

What is being reported?

Early reporting from Cyber Security monitoring group NETBLOCKS state that three subsea cables have been damaged as of 26th February 2024. They are as follows:

SEACOM: A statement from SEACOM confirms there is disruption, but that this is limited to the segment of the cable that runs from Mombasa (Kenya) to Zafarana (Egypt). The damage appears to have occurred within the Red Sea.

AAE-1: Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1) is a 25,000km submarine cable from South-East Asia to Europe across Egypt, connecting from Hong Kong to France. At the time of reporting, it is unclear as to the extent of the damage.

EIG: The Europe India Gateway (EIG) is a 15,000km international fibre optic submarine cable system that links 12 countries across 3 continents, Europe, Africa and Asia. It passes directly through the Bab al Mandab strait. Presently, the reported disruption to communications systems – primarily internet – is affecting the Gulf States, India and Eastern Africa.

What is the likely cause? 

Given the proximity to the incidents in vicinity of the Bab al-Mandab strait, initial reporting suggests that this is linked to a deliberate Houthi sabotage which is a realistic possibility. Yemen Telecom accused the Houthis of threatening subsea cables earlier in February, sighting a map posted on a Houthi affiliated Telegram channel and accompanying messaging seemingly implying it was a target. Whilst more investigation is required to make a solid assessment, such an attack would match the Houthi's modus operandi of targeting a high profile, asymmetric target that would cause maximum disruption. As a proxy, it cannot be discounted that this also may have had state influence from elsewhere.

Why is this significant?

1. Global impact on communications. If the disruption has been caused by deliberate sabotage, the cost of the Houthi's freedom of action will have just increased significantly, affecting many nations who were otherwise uncommitted to the conflict.

2. Demonstration of capability by non-state actor. If proven deliberate, such an act will highlight how even non-state actors can target subsea infrastructure with relatively limited capabilities.

3. Further escalation. Such an act would prove a further escalation to the crisis, despite western efforts to compel the Houthis to cease via targeted airstrikes.

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Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil & Gas

• All eyes on India (link)

• Middle Eastern Producers continue to provide a strong baseline for the VLCC Segment (link)

• Global LPG trade flows face a myriad of uncertainties in spring 2024 (link)

Dry Bulk

• Capesize Brazil to North China rates experiences an upturn (link)

• Tonnage Supply Key to Capesize Freight Rates (link)

• The stories that are shaping the landscape of Dry Bulk demand (link)

Other

• Featured Insight: The Container Fleet to be flooded with new capacity

• The United States sanctioned another vessel (link)

• Leaked papers reveal inner workings of Iran’s shadow oil trade (link)

• Number of container vessels sold in the second hand market declined for the second year running (link)

Red Sea 🌊

Red Sea - Key Tanker Flows Gibsons

Weekly Red Sea Roundup Windward

How the Red Sea disruptions have effected Dry Bulk Trade Kpler

Bab El Mandeb Strait Passings Drop Further As Carriers Reroute Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Industry associations release updated guidelines for commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Maritrace

Meet our new Partner

Tathya.Earth is a geospatial analytics company leveraging Remote sensing, Machine Learning and Computer vision techniques to build proprietary models using satellite data to monitor production, Mining and Inventory of Industrial commodities.

• Near real time production, mining and raw material inventory, indicators for short term demand and supply

• Near real time correlation with spot prices

• Unplanned production and supply changes and black

Mining Index Examples: Coal, Iron Ore, Copper and Bauxite

The Container Fleet to be flooded with new capacity Maritime Insight

The IMF has in its January WEO update raised its global GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 3.1% and for 2025 to 3.2%. The upgrade was due to better economic resilience in the US and in some large emerging/developing economies, and higher than expected fiscal support in China.

The Chinese GDP growth looks like it has exceeded expectations and has preliminary come in at 5.2% in 2023. Most forecasts point at a growth of 4.6% in 2024. Negative risks are mounting geopolitical tensions that could heighten economic uncertainty, with negative effects on consumption, foreign and domestic demand.

A higher-than-expected economic growth in China is good news for container ship operators. The decisions to avoid sailings through the Red Sea and instead opt for the two weeks longer round the south of Africa will absorb tonnage. The Houthi attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea will hopefully cease soon, but the repercussions on global supply chains will take many months after that to clear.

Looking at the development of larger parts of the container fleet, any additional demand the next couple of years are positive for ship operators as the fleets will be flooded with new capacity.

Figure 1: Fleet teu capacity changes, >10,000teu

The large ships, of 10,000teu and above are mostly engaged in services between the Far East and Europe (new post-Panamaxes), and between the Far East and the US East Coast (up to neo-Panamaxes). The fleet is still young, so there are very few removal candidates. The net fleet capacity growth will peak at 16% this year according to maritime-insight forecasts.

The fleet of ships ranging from 3,000teu up to 10,000teu has a different age profile. Here we see quite dramatic changes already going on as the older tonnage is being phased out, and new – often larger – ships are built and deployed. The strong growth of intra-Asian and north-south trades will absorb parts of these capacity additions.

Figure 2: Fleet teu capacity changes, 3,000-10,000teu

This piece is from the monthly report series, mi Shipbuilding and Fleet Forecast.

Reports and Data available via Maritime Data

Red Sea - Key Tanker Flows Gibsons

Another key tanker flow that traditionally relies on Suez transit is the crude trade from the MEG into Europe, which averaged 865kbd in January, down modestly from 910kbd in 2023 (but surprisingly up compared to shipments in Nov/Dec 2023). Out of 15 Suezmaxes and 8 VLCCs that loaded crude in the MEG in January for delivery into Europe, 10 Suezmaxes and 6 VLCCs opted for a COGH routing. In addition, circa 445kbd was exported from the MEG into Ain Sukhna on average last year, with the vast majority of these barrels destined for the European market. This trade collapsed to just 30kbd in January; however, it is too early to draw conclusions as monthly exports are often volatile, whilst there also was an increase in shipments into Ain Sukhna from West Coast Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea.

With most crude tankers avoiding the Red Sea, it is perhaps surprising that we haven’t seen the same response as in the clean market. This is particularly the case for Suezmaxes that dominate the MEG to Europe trade. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, although the affected volumes are broadly similar, bigger cargo sizes mean less tankers. Secondly, fleet size also matters. Whilst the Suezmax and VLCC fleet is over 660 and 900 units each, there are currently circa 250 LR2s and 260 LR1s trading clean, with the rest operating in the dirty segment. In addition, there is also a clear shift away from Suezmaxes, which accounted for 80% of all crude moved from the MEG to Europe last year but just 55% in January.

MEG-Europe Crude Flows by Vessel Size (%)

Yet, despite the muted response in the crude tanker market so far, if the current situation continues for any significant period of time, the impact of COGH routing will accumulate, offering support to tanker rates. Also, it will be interesting to see how many Mediterranean and CPC Kazakhstan barrels will continue flowing East, with shipments (mainly consisting of CPC and Libyan barrels) averaging 560kbd last year. Unless there is a dramatic decline in these volumes, GOGH routing will offer another boost to crude tanker tonne miles.

Weekly Red Sea Roundup Windward

The Bunkering Redirection

There has been a 50% increase in bunkering operations in East Asia, a 40% rise in bunkering ship-to-ship (STS) engagements in Europe, and a corresponding 20% decrease in the Middle East, according to Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform’s analysis of container vessel bunkering between October 2023 and January 2024.   

A 77% Increase in Route Deviations?! 

Windward’s AI-powered insights show a 77% increase in route deviations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by all vessels (January 24-February 4). Our data shows that the majority of the route deviations were conducted North of the Yemeni EEZ and East of the Gulf of Aden. 

There was a sharp 700%(!) increase in anchoring for over five hours in the North Suez port waiting area (January 27-28). This is noteworthy, because it might suggest that vessels are still avoiding entry to the Red Sea and staying in the Suez, which might create more congestion in the area and greater delays in the supply chain.

Don’t Forget About Russian Oil…

Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic is down 70%-80%. But more than 114 vessels that are marked as “High Risk” for Russia regimes took the route of Med –> Suez –> India/Asia during the past 60 days, according to Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform. 

While many major energy companies and carriers are sending vessels on the long route around the Cape of Good Hope, Russian oil seems to still be flowing in the Middle East. 

Interested to understand how Maritime Data can help you understand which Vessel Tracking Data Service works best for your business?

Level 1 Vendor Analysis - Coverage, Accuracy & Frequency

Maritime Data acted as an extension of the team’s resources. The process that we went through in the time that we did would of been impossible to accomplish ourselves.

-Senior Executive at Leading Maritime Technology Business

How the Red Sea disruptions have effected Dry Bulk Trade Kpler

In 2023, 350 Mt (7%) of seaborne dry bulk trade passed through the Suez Canal, a record high. However, the proportion of trade transiting the Suez Canal varies significantly across dry bulk commodities.

More than 12% of seaborne grains and oilseeds trade used this route in 2023, with significant contributions coming from fronthaul shipments out of the Black Sea, including corn, soybean and wheat exports from the US East Coast (USEC) and US Gulf (USG) ports, and European grain exports. This is a markedly higher proportion than for coal and iron ore trade.

Grains and Oilseeds

About 7 Mt of grains that pass through the Red Sea every month. We see confirmed diversions of about 4.5 Mt of cargo since mid-December, up from 3.8 Mt last week. More vessels, especially those sailing from the US Gulf, are deciding to go via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea, adding between 10 and 20 days of sailing time. Notably, most vessels originating in the Black Sea are still taking the Red Sea route.

Grain prices have not particularly reacted to disruptions.

Iron Ore

Minimal impact on seaborne trade from Red Sea disruptions. It is not a major trade route; iron ore is generally carried on Capesize vessels (the clue is in the name), and alternative supplies are ample. Just under 3% (48.22 Mt) of seaborne iron ore trade used the Suez Canal/Red Sea route in 2023.

Coal

Little impact on global trade. At 105.48 Mt, seaborne coal (thermal and metallurgical) trade through the Suez Canal/Red Sea route represented 7.70% of seaborne coal shipments in 2023.

Bauxite

Globally minimal impact, potentially some impact on bauxite flows into the UAE. Almost all West Africa-China bauxite trade uses the Cape route. Only 3.61% (5.62 Mt) of seaborne bauxite trade flowed through the Suez Canal/Red Sea route in 2023.

Steel

Potential for disruption. Backhaul steel cargoes from major Asian producers into the European/Mediterranean market use the Suez Canal/Red Sea route. However, interruption/increased costs on this trade would probably be welcomed by domestic producers in major importers as levelling the playing field with cheaper mills in Asia.

Bab El Mandeb Strait Passings Drop Further As Carriers Reroute Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Key data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence for the week ending February 4, 2024:

• Vessels passing through the Bab el Mandeb strait fell 11% week on week and are down by around 57% compared with the 4-week average prior to Houthi attacks. The most significant drops in terms of vessels types were for bulk carriers and crude oil tankers.

• Suez Canal passings are down 10% week on week, 54% below the average and 51% lower compared with the same period last year.

• For the Cape of Good Hope, transits are up 7% compared with the prior week and 65% year on year.

• There were 235 passings through the Bab el Mandeb strait in the week ending February 4 (including transits where vessels had their Automatic Identification System switched off). This is down 11% from 263 the week before and an average of 542 passings in the period prior to the Houthi attacks, a drop of about 57%. The numbers will be revised slightly upwards next week as more dark transit data becomes available.

• The most significant falls by vessel type were for bulk carriers, down 18% week on week, and for crude oil tankers by almost 40%.

Transit volumes at Suez, Bab el Mandeb and Cape of Good Hope:

Industry associations release updated guidelines for commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Maritrace

On 5 February seven industry associations updated their security guidelines for commercial ships navigating the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Why have industry guidelines been updated now?

The timing of the new guidelines by BIMCO, CLIA, ICS, IMCA, INTERCARGO, INTERTANKO and OCIMF takes place in the context of ongoing attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the most recent of which was a missile attack on an oil tanker, MARLIN LUANDA, on 26 January which started a fire onboard (all crew were confirmed safe on 27 January) and two attacks on 6 February that fortunately did not result in damage to either vessel. Attacks launched from Yemen are continuing despite military intervention by UK and US in the form of airstrikes on infrastructure believed to be aiding Ansar Allah in their selection of targets. Commercial traffic in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has declined after mid December and commercial firms continue to find alternative routes avoiding the Red Sea, adding considerable cost to routine transits.

Count of vessels in the Red Sea (south of 18N) and Gulf of Aden (west of 60E), November 2023 to February 2024. Source: MariTrace.

The threats to shipping do not (yet) fall within the legal definition of interstate conflict. Combined Maritime Forces patrol vessels and others are operating in a surveillance and protective role, not a war-fighting role. The new guidelines are careful to remind ship operators that the ship’s master retains ultimate responsibility for the safety and security of vessel and crew.

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Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

Oil

• The Long Way Round (link)

• Significant increase in exports at Russian Port (link)

• How 2023 became the year of VLCCs (link)

• Brazil’s Oil Boom (link)

• US Crude exports to Asia decline (link)

Dry Bulk

• New Records for Dry Bulk Flows in 2023 (link)

• Russia Coal Shipments to China Decline (link)

• Mixed signals suggest the Chinese economy will continue to face challenges (link)

Other

• Sanctioned ships briefly find a new home (link)

• 2024 Maritime Trends: The Year of Survival & Success (link)

• Q4 Trade Patters and Risk Insights (link)

• US Census Bureau Identifies Narrowing Trade Deficit (link)

Red Sea 🌊

Ten incidents of hijacking in Somalia’s territorial waters Maritrace

Red Sea Update: Charterers Reassess Risk And Trade Lanes Shift Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Red Sea AIS Guidance, Dark Activity Spike, and the Area You Can’t Ignore…Windward

Red Sea Update: Global LR fleet most affected, while Russia-origin oil continues to transit Vortexa 

Navigating the Latest Global Supply Chain Disruption Dun and Bradstreet

What are the current and potential risks to commodity markets from the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea? Kpler

CO2 Surge at Sea: The Environmental Toll of Redirection in Maritime Routes Amid Red Sea Crisis Portcast

The Red Sea Escalation: Implications on Global Seaborne Trade Signal

Meet our new Partner

Geospatial analysis and intelligence

A UK Leader in Geospatial intelligence technologies, Geollect serve both the Maritime and Defense markets with insights derived from their unique approach that combines human expertise with advanced technology, harnessing the power of AI, machine learning, and sensor technology.

Ten incidents of hijacking in Somalia’s territorial waters Maritrace

Amid ongoing threats to commercial shipping in the Red Sea and increased maritime security risks in the Gulf of Aden, ten incidents of hijacking in Somalia’s territorial waters and in the Arabian Sea since November 2023 have revitlised concerns about the return of Somali Piracy, previously believed to have all but ceased.

Given the large number of commercial ships that transit the area on approach to the Gulf of Aden, regional counter-piracy authorities and shipping companies and attentive to the recent increase in hijacking incidents. Some are concerned this may signal a further phase of heightened security risks to commercial shipping.

As at January 30 2024, the recent phase of incidents have occurred in five clusters:

1. Near to Qandala, on the northern shores of Puntland.

2. Near to Al Hafun, on Somalia’s eastern coast

3. Near to Eyl, on Somalia’s eastern coast

4. Offshore, east of the island of Socotra

5. Offshore, 400 - 600 NM (approx 900 km) east of Puntland

Organisnig an effective response will rely on rapid information sharing, stability of maritime cooperation mechanisms established before the advent of threats to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and renewed attention to the factors on land that are motivating and enabling criminal networks to self-organise and take advantage of opportunity at Sea.

Ten incidents of hijacking in Somalia’s EEZ and the Arabian Sea since November 2023 have renewed concerns about the threat of piracy. Source: Maritrace

Red Sea Update: Charterers Reassess Risk And Trade Lanes Shift Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Key data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence for the week ending January 28, 2024:

• The number of cargo-carrying active vessels (10,000dwt+) that are not berthed or anchored in the Red Sea fell to 199 in the week ending January 28, down from 221 last week and 366 in the corresponding week last year.

• The number of cargo-carrying vessel (10,000dwt+) transits through the Suez Canal is down 16% week on week and down 45% compared to the same week in 2023.

• Cargo-carrying vessel (10,000dwt+) transits around the Cape of Good Hope are up 4% from last week and 78% higher year-on-year.

• Tanker operators are rerouting vessels away from the Red Sea in the wake of a Houthi attack which left a Trafigura-chartered vessel in flames over the weekend.

• The weekly daily average of active ships in the Red Sea was 229, down from 255 the week prior and down from 367 over the same period last year.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence / Seasearcher

Note: Only includes cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt that are not berthed or anchored 

Red Sea AIS Guidance, Dark Activity Spike, and the Area You Can’t Ignore…Windward

Another Follow-the-Leader Effect? 

Two vessels near the Gulf of Aden were forced to seek the support of the U.S. Navy after explosions occurred nearby on Wednesday. No damage was caused to the Maersk Detroit or Maersk Chesapeake. 

“Following the escalation of risk, (Maersk Line, Limited) MLL is suspending transits in the region until further notice,” it said on Wednesday.

We saw a follow-the-leader effect a month ago after the world’s largest carrier announced it would avoid the Red Sea. Expect another wave of supply chain disruption – there were still 32 UK and U.S. vessels transiting the area this past month, according to Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform. 

Clusters of the UK and U.S. vessels from Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform 

This recent incident, coupled with earlier ones (see below), will further drive insurance premiums up and create even more disruptions as a greater number of charterers and carriers avoid the area. Freight and insurance rates will continue to rise…

Trade flows are changing, which is why we launched our new Sequence Search. It’s a unique way for users to conduct advanced analysis of vessels’ behavioral typologies and trade movements by searching for a sequence of activities. It also helps contextualize the journey, enabling users to see if route deviations were conducted for security reasons, or for concealing illicit activities. 

Red Sea Update: Global LR fleet most affected, while Russia-origin oil continues to transit Vortexa

LRs and the outsized impact from Red Sea attacks

Clean tanker transits via the Bab-el-Mandeb have continued to decline since Red Sea attacks on non-Israeli vessels began mid-December. Southbound transits have largely stopped, hovering at slightly over one transit per day on a moving average basis. CPP volumes still going through are almost all Russian-origin heading East. Northbound CPP tanker transits slightly recovered going into the New Year but declined precipitously following the US/UK-led strikes on 12 January. Some tankers were initially adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach in the Arabian Sea, but virtually all have now made the decision to divert around the Cape of Good Hope (COGH).

Daily Bab-el-Mandeb CPP tanker transits (7-day MA, no. of transits) (Retrieved via Freight API/SDK)

Navigating the Latest Global Supply Chain Disruption Dun and Bradstreet

The Red Sea disruption has escalated to alarming levels, with naval attacks, counterstrikes, and shipping carriers avoiding the area. It is of utmost urgency for businesses to assess the impact on critical inventory and take immediate action.

Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights offers a crucial tool to interpret the rapidly changing global shipping landscape in light of these developments. The Red Sea is a vital shipping route connecting one end of the Suez Canal. According to D&B Shipping Insights data, it is bordered by six sovereign nations, with five actively engaged in shipping: Egypt, Eritrea, Israel, Sudan, and Yemen. These countries host 55 active shipping ports, previously showing increasing shipping activity. However, recent events have led to a significant decline in shipping activity, particularly with vessels bearing an Israeli flag experiencing a devastating decrease of over 66% year over year.

The repercussions of the Red Sea attacks extend far beyond Israel, impacting businesses on a global scale. Three immediate outcomes directly affect shipping through the area. Firstly, insurance premiums have skyrocketed by over 3500%, putting additional financial strain on businesses, according to reports published by NPR. Secondly, alternative routes must be considered, resulting in additional costs incurred. Lastly, extended delivery times are causing adjustments to expectations, leading to potential customer dissatisfaction and operational challenges.

What are the current and potential risks to commodity markets from the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea? Kpler

Overview

As the disruption around the Bab el-Mandeb strait enters its third month, a rising number of bulk vessels are avoiding the region, creating ever broader negative impacts to commodity markets and the wider economy. To counter the threat, the US and UK conducted coordinated strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen earlier this month. This has not deterred the Iran backed Houthis with attacks on vessels persisting, most recently with a strike on the tanker Marlin Luanda carrying Russian naphtha, the most serious attack on a vessel to date.

Average daily Suez Canal transits by bulk commodity carriers hit a more than two-year low of 28 on 26 January. The recent strike on the Marlin Luanda highlights the ongoing risk to vessels and the likelihood that the current crisis will impact shipping and commodity markets for the foreseeable future. In this report, we highlight the current and potential risks to various commodity markets.

Macroeconomic

Escalating tensions in the Red Sea represent a risk to global disinflationary trends we've seen over the past year. Containership flows through the Red Se, in particular, have eased considerably with numerous containership firms, including Maersk, banning all Red Sea shipments indefinitely. This effectively pushes up the cost to ship goods from east to west amid longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope. Higher freight costs are effectively passed through to goods prices.  Europe is the most exposed to rising costs due to its dependence on imports from Asia. The cost of manufactured goods from clothing to furniture is expected to jump in March and if issues persist in the Red Sea, rising prices could be a longer-run structural problem. Other regions, such as the United States, could also begin to feel knock-on effects as higher freight rates between Asia and Europe spread further afield. 

Geopolitical

Houthi actions in the region enjoy full Iranian backing. Tehran derives three primary benefits from these events:   

1. A potential upward push on oil price

2. Disproportionately higher costs for the US and the UK in intercepting Houthi missile 

3. An enhancement of its reputation in the Muslim and Arab world. Notably, a recent survey by the Doha Institute indicates a shift in perception, with the Arab world now viewing the US and Israel as the major threats to peace and stability in the region, providing Tehran with a significant political advantage.

Moreover, recent events, including Iran's seizure of the Suezmax vessel St Nikolas in the Gulf of Oman, pose additional risks to the freight market. The St Nikolas was laden with Basrah crude destined for Tupras’ Aliaga refinery. This incident, distinct from Houthi activity near the Gulf of Aden, has triggered potential consequences in the Iran-Turkey-Iraq relationship. Iran alleges that the vessel owner and the US had 980 kb of Iranian crude stolen last year, originally transported within the same vessel but eventually diverted and delivered to the US.

CO2 Surge at Sea: The Environmental Toll of Redirection in Maritime Routes Amid Red Sea Crisis Portcast

The Red Sea attack crisis has led to continued rerouting of vessels through the Cape of Good Hope, which has not only altered the dynamics of global shipping but has also unveiled an environmental consequence —a surge in carbon emissions.

Earlier, when the crisis started, and the vessels started rerouting, Portcast predicted and informed about the possible increase in carbon emissions, specifically focusing on the South Asia region (India/Colombo) to Europe and the US East Coast.

South Asia Region to Europe: A 50% Surge in CO2 Emissions

Traditionally, vessels from South Asia to Europe have relied on the Suez Canal, a critical shortcut that significantly reduces travel distances and emissions. Portcast's calculations reveal a staggering 50% increase in carbon dioxide emissions for shipping between the South Asia region and Europe. 

South Asia Region to US East Coast: A 20% Rise in CO2 Emissions

The impact is not confined to the European routes alone; vessels between the South Asia region and the US East Coast have also experienced a notable increase in carbon emissions.

Portcast's data indicates an approximate 20% surge in CO2 emissions for shipping between the South Asia region and the US East Coast. 

Impact of Redirection on Critical Routes

Recent findings from Portcast shed light on the stark increase in CO2 emissions for shipping routes between China, Singapore, Malaysia, and Europe, as well as the US East Coast.

1. Singapore/Malaysia to Europe: CO2 emissions increased by 40%.

2. Singapore/Malaysia to US East Coast: CO2 emissions rose by 16%.

3. China to Europe: CO2 emissions saw a 30% increase.

4. China to US East Coast: CO2 emissions increased by 12%.

[Note: Various factors influence CO2 emissions, and these figures represent a general trend observed by Portcast.]

The Red Sea Escalation: Implications on Global Seaborne Trade Signal

In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market spot rates in various shipping segments. The recent attacks by the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have already started to significantly affect trading activities, especially in the container segment. With the start of the new year, the crisis now appears to be impacting Red Sea vessel counts in the crude tanker segment, while spot rates in the Atlantic routes have spiked and piqued the interest of the market, signalling an escalation of the crisis with daily occurrences of new attacks.

In the dry bulk segment, the market has not experienced a significant impact yet. However, as time progresses, the threat of Houthi attacks on both dry and wet seaborne trade appears to be escalating. Figure 1 below, examines which segments were the most exposed to Suez canal crossings in 2023. Suezmax and Aframax and Supramax and Panamax represent more than half of the total crossings in tankers and dry bulk respectively. 

Figure 1: % of Voyages that ended in 2023 with a Suez canal  crossing per Vessel Class, Tanker & Dry

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Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

• Since the beginning of December, continuous rain has been affecting Australia's coal exports (link) & (link)

• Dry Bulk spot freight rates have remained under pressure amid rising tonnage supply (link)

• How will the current situation in Libya affect the tanker market? (link)

• Dry Cargo Forecast - China steel demand to decline by 3.3% (link)

• 2023 review - Commodities Changing Patterns and Freight Market (link)

Red Sea 🌊

• The Red Sea Crisis: Tracking the volatile security situation Spire

• Red Sea Attack Challenges: Port Congestion Updates Portcast

• US slaps sanctions on half a dozen ships and companies owing to Houthi and Iran links & Red Sea Risk explained Lloyd’s List

• The Red Sea and The Houthis Geollect

• Q&A: Understanding the Impact of the Red Sea Crisis Windward

• Red Sea attacks and Panama Canal drought lead to gas carrier rerouting Vortexa

Coming soon…

2024 Prediction Series

We ask Leaders and Experts from the leading Maritime Intelligence Companies in the world what their predictions are for 2024.

Make sure you follow the Maritime Data Linkedin Page for updates.

The Red Sea Crisis: Tracking the volatile security situation Spire

Commercial vessels seeking protection

Some vessels still sailing through the Red Sea changed their destination in the AIS data destination field to ‘VL NO CONTACT ISRAEL’ in the hope that they would be able to sail safely through the area and protect themselves from Houthi attacks.

Another observation from the AIS data destination field are the mentions of ‘ARMED GUARDS ON BOARD’, the use of which increased significantly towards the end of 2023 compared to the same time in the previous year. These mentions are aimed to discourage potential hijackers.

The below graph including Historical AIS data shows that over the course of 2023 maritime traffic in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Gulf of Suez has been considerably higher than in the previous year. Upon the Red Sea attacks starting however, a decline in traffic is noticeable. A further sharp decline in traffic is showing from the 16th of December resulting in 2022 traffic surpassing 2023 traffic in a year-on-year comparison by the 23rd of December.

Light blue line – traffic in 2022 (Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Suez)
Dark blue line – traffic in 2023 (Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Suez)

Red Sea Attack Challenges Portcast

Increase in Port Activities Across African Ports Amid Red Sea Attacks

Portcast have analysed all African ports, contrasting the visit counts from the past week with the average weekly figures over the last three months. They specifically looked for ports that exhibited an uptick in visits and congestion compared to their performance throughout the year. Ultimately, they identified the three ports.

The graphs presented indicate congestion levels have not been observed at such heights since November 2022. This recent surge in port activity appears to align with the diversions occurring in the Red Sea.

Here are insights into three key ports that have witnessed substantial changes:

1. Mtwara Port, Tanzania (TZMYW):

• In December, the vessel count at Mtwara port surged from an average of 1-2 vessels per week to 6-7 vessels per week.

• The median congestion, measured in hours, exhibited a remarkable escalation from the three-month average of 3 hours to well over 10 days in December. 

2. Mombasa Port, Kenya (KEMBA):Book a call

• Over the past three months, Mombasa port has maintained an average vessel count of approximately 15 vessels per week.

• However, the most recent week saw a substantial uptick, with as many as 23 vessels visiting the port. This influx contributed to a considerable rise in median congestion, elevating from the three-month average of 28 hours to around 100 hours.

3. Pointe Noire Port, Congo (CGPNR):

• Pointe Noire Port observed an increase in vessel count, rising from the three-month average of 15 to 20 vessels in the last week.

• The median waiting time, measured in hours, surged from the three-month average of 50 hours to approximately 90 hours.

US slaps sanctions on half a dozen ships and companies owing to Houthi and Iran links Lloyd’s List

The US has slapped sanctions on four tankers and two companies for shipping Iranian commodities on behalf of a Houthi ‘financial facilitator’ backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force. It is the first targeting of Iran-linked vessels by Ofac since March.

Ofac said the two blacklisted companies, UAE-based Global Tech Marine Services and Hong Kong-based Cielo Maritime, shipped commodities on behalf of a Houthi facilitator, Sa’id al-Jamal, himself sanctioned in 2021.

Cielo owns and manages the 1999 built, Panama-flagged suezmax Mehle (IMO: 9191711), Ofac said.

Global Tech manages and operates the 1999-built, Panama-flagged long range one product tanker Sincere 02 (IMO: 9226011), and operates the 2003-built, Panama-flagged aframax Fortune Galaxy (IMO: 9257010); and Cameroon-flagged panamax Molecule (IMO: 9209300), Ofac said.

Lloyd’s List Podcast: Red Sea Risks Explained

As the missiles fly and ships divert, the Lloyd’s List team are joined by industry experts to offer expert views on how the events in the Red Sea are going to be shaping shipping markets and risk assessments globally over the coming days and weeks

Listen to the Podcast here

It seems that 27 was the magic number in the end. That was how many attacks the Houthi’s landed on international shipping before the inevitable military response was triggered.

The Red Sea and The Houthis Geollect

Since the outbreak of conflict in Israel and Gaza, commercial shipping travelling through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has come under attack from the Houthi group, a relatively sophisticated non-state actor operating in Yemen with heavy links to Iran. The Houthis have often claimed that these targets are linked to Israel, Israeli companies and/or Israeli individuals, and are targeting them in response to Israel's ongoing campaign against Hamas in Gaza. However, as the frequency of attacks has increased over the past few weeks, the attacks have evidently become less discriminate in their nature, suggesting that the Houthi's intent is to make the Bab al-Mandab strait unpassable for international trade.

In order to prevent this, a US-led coalition of western naval powers - including the UK - has launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, in order to protect the freedom of navigation of commercial vessels through the area. In response to direct attacks against these warships on the 10th January, both the US and the UK have begun limited and proportionate strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in order to deter further aggression.

Re-routing via the Gulf of Guinea - one threat for another?

Not only does re-routing critical maritime traffic significantly increase the time and cost of trade and transit, it also exposes vessels to other security threats, which may simply trade one risk for another. Any shipping heading on a course from the Cape of Good Hope toward the Mediterranean or North Sea will likely pass through the Gulf of Guinea, a littoral area which has persistently seen the highest levels of maritime piracy in the world since the decline of the the threat of Somalian piracy in the late 2000s/early 2010s. The below Storymap created by Geollect earlier this year summarises why maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea will persist and remain a critical security threat to both the region and global trade for the foreseeable future.

Q&A: Understanding the Impact of the Red Sea Crisis Windward

Windward’s recent webinar on the Red Sea crisis was their most popular one yet.  Host Ami Daniel, Windward’s Co-Founder and CEO, kept it interactive and made sure that the top industry experts who were participating shared their actionable insights and answered as many of the questions that popped up as possible. Those experts included:

• Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

• Joshua Hutchinson, Managing Director Intelligence & Risk, Ambrey

• Jakob P. Larsen, Head of Maritime Security and Safety, BIMCO 

Dark Activities by Container Vessels 

Question: Is it safer to turn off a vessel’s AIS to avoid Houthi attacks?

Joshua Hutchinson from Ambrey noted that some vessels that turned their AIS off early on in the conflict were still targeted. There are several ways to track a vessel that are still publicly available. Turning off the AIS doesn’t mean a vessel is completely hidden. We’ve also seen an escalation in the past couple of weeks where we see spotters on the water. UAVs are being used to recon targets before impact, that has been well-recorded in the area.” 

What is BIMCO’s recommendation? Jakob P. Larsen explained that the decision depends on each company and their risk assessment. The reality is that BIMCO can’t and won’t give specific recommendations, but rather outlines what is going on and how these factors interact, and then each organization can make its own decision, depending on its risk appetite.How we can help

Vessel Movement Patterns and the Suez Canal

Question: Do you notice a pattern of vessels crossing the Suez Canal and turning back to Europe?

The Windward Maritime AI™ platform’s new Sequence Search capability enables users to track vessels’ sequence of activities. During the webinar, Mattan Benyamini, Product Manager at Windward, used this new technology to report that 15 large cargo container vessels had visited the Mediterranean Sea, passed through the Suez Canal, and then returned to Europe within the last month. This pattern underlines the significant impact of the crisis on the global supply chain. During this ongoing crisis, technology can be and should be used to stay on top of changes. 

15 large cargo container vessels that had visited the Mediterranean Sea, passed through the Suez Canal, and then returned to Europe within the last month. Screenshot taken from Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform. 

Red Sea attacks and Panama Canal drought lead to gas carrier rerouting Vortexa

When faced with the two-pronged issue of Panama Canal transit difficulty plus the possibility of attacks in the Red Sea, gas carrier operators are driven to make altering navigational decisions, and the Cape of Good Hope (COGH) is proving a viable route. Since the attacks on non-Israeli vessels transiting the Red Sea began in mid-December, we are tracking 32 gas carriers (LPG and LNG carriers) transiting West of Suez-to-East of Suez via the Cape of Good Hope. 26 of these vessels are likely following this trajectory due to ongoing Panama Canal transit issues instead of geopolitical developments unfolding in the Middle East.

Panama Canal transits for LPG carriers remain low, though laden transits numbers are recovering slightly so far in January. Both alternate waypoints – COGH and Suez – have a similar duration for most East of Suez destinations for North American-origin voyages, so some operators may prefer the COGH to avoid Suez Canal costs. Similar numbers of LNG carriers are transiting via COGH. This behaviour is also occurring on the ballast leg from EoS-to-WoS, especially as Northbound transit numbers for ballast LPG carriers via the Panama Canal have remained under pressure, hovering around just 1 vessel per day.

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Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

• Red Sea Tensions Escalate: Dual UAS Attacks on Merchant Vessels Reported (link)

• Renewed Strength for Cargo Orders for Copper Bound for China Could Herald a Pickup in Chinese Industrial Production (link)

• US slaps sanctions on three more ships over oil price cap (link)

• Black Sea disruptions bring Kazakhstan production in focus (link)

• The congestion in the Panama Canal remained significant for MR (link)

• Time to reflect on where investment in new tonnage has been the strongest - Tankers (link)

• Global Bulk Shipping Update: Economic shifts and sector trends (link)

• OPEC+ deepens cuts as Brazil joins the group (link)

Deeper Dive 🔎

• Exclusive Report: The fleet operating in opaque markets - one year since the EU import ban Vortexa

• The business case for supply chain visibility Beacon

New Products 🚀

Kpler introduce emissions intelligence

Signal Ocean launch new features to archive and merge cargos

Upcoming Events 🗓️

Maritime Executive Meeting - 18 January Gothenburg, Sweden 🇸🇪

NEW: Job Board 💼

Scroll down for 2x new featured opportunities to work in Maritime Data and Analytics 🚢📊

The fleet operating in opaque markets - one year since the EU import ban Vortexa

The opaque players crude exports reach 4-year high, accounting for a growing share of global crude exports.

Iran, Russia and Venezuela’s (opaque market) combined crude exports reached 5.7mbd in May, a 4-year high and a 15% increase y-o-y. The opaque markets crude exports averaged 5.2mbd in 2023, a 500kbd increase y-o-y, an increasingly important market to global crude supply.

This 4-year high was driven by record-high Iranian crude/condensate exports and Russia increasing its crude exports despite sanctions.

➔ Iran’s crude/condensate exports surpassed 1.5mbd in May, driven by strong demand from China and increased production

➔ Russia increased its crude exports (excl. CPC Blend & KEBCO) to 3.6mbd in May, despite the EU import ban and OPEC+ cuts

➔ Russia found alternative buyers - India accounts for 50% of Russian crude imports in 2023, compared to 20% in 2022

➔ China also accounts for 40% in 2023, a 10pp increase y-o-y

➔ Venezuela’s exports have increased due to higher production and US increased purchases of Venezuelan crude via Chevron

To read the full exclusive report by Vortexa:

The Business Case for Supply Chain Visibility Beacon

Supply chain visibility isn’t just about ETA tracking – it’s an organisation's ability to access, share and analyse their supply chain data. Investing in visibility helps organisations unlock new capabilities, transform ways of working and future-proof their businesses, all while boosting the bottom line.

The strategic benefits of supply chain visibility

Supply chain visibility gives you ownership of your supply chain data. Instead of leaving data dispersed across carrier portals, visibility solutions bring your data together in a single source of truth and help you get a full picture of what’s happening.

Visibility also streamlines supply chain collaboration. Any good visibility programme has to extend beyond the walls of your organisation to reach your supply chain partners. Collaboration tools bring together stakeholders, data, documents and communication in a central hub.

A good visibility platform should also enable you to measure and report on Scope 3 carbon emissions, get ahead of regulations and protect your brand.

It’s also good for the bottom line

Improving supply chain visibility also delivers savings that boost your bottom line. Insights into past performance boost negotiating power with partners and help you make better, data-driven planning decisions that collectively drive down freight costs and improve supply chain performance.

The benefits of investing in supply chain visibility are wide-reaching. Not only does it help drive cost savings and supply chain performance, but it also helps businesses future proof their supply chains and set the groundwork for automation.

To read the full report by Beacon:

4 new enhancements to the Signal Ocean Platform

• Cargo Merging Functionality: Signal have introduced a new capability for users to manually merge multiple cargoes or cargo clusters.

  This can be done through the 'Merge' option in the three dots menu. Post-merging, the grid focuses on the merged result, which now becomes a manual entry, consolidating all underlying cargoes. This feature is initially available to Golden Ocean, Signal, and Demo account users, with a broader rollout planned soon.

• Cargo Archiving: Users can now archive cargoes easily, either individually or in bulk. Archived cargoes are greyed-out for easy identification, and a new 'Archive Status' filter allows users to manage their view of active and archived cargoes. Archived cargoes can be restored as needed.

• Cargo Validation: This feature allows users to update a cargo’s date/time to the current moment, ensuring information is up-to-date. When a cargo is validated, it's converted into a manual entry.

• Enhanced User Experience: We've improved the user experience by ensuring manual entries maintain their connection with the underlying email on the right panel. A new 'unmerging' function also allows users to easily revert merges if needed. Book a call

Want to learn more?

Emissions Intelligence Kpler

Key Features:

◾Access the modeled emissions of over 24,000 vessels including CII and EEOI metrics.

◾Go beyond the vessel and understand the emissions impact at fleet, company and cargo level.

◾Analyse emission trends, filtering by port/terminal, trade route, company, and/or countries.

◾Stay ahead in a constantly changing regulatory environment.

Want to speak to us about Emissions Intelligence?

Maritime Insight Executive Meeting

What to expect: A full day program covering the topics that will shape the future of the Shipping Markets, followed by refreshments and dinner at the famous, the Royal Bachelors’ Club, founded in 1769.

Conflicts, sanctions, inflation, high interest rates, recession, transition, disruption or AI, i.e business-as-usual…

When: January 18th, 2024

Where: Gothenburg, Sweden

Attendees of the meeting can expect a rich program led by Edwin Lampert of Riviera Maritime Media and Christopher Pålsson of maritime-insight, covering key topics like global geopolitics, economic trends, and trade. Discussions will include insights on the shifting dynamics in global growth, particularly in China, India, Europe, and the U.S., with Lena Sellgren from Business Sweden providing a unique perspective on Swedish economic initiatives.

The program will also delve into the energy sector, examining changes in oil shipping demand and the potential of renewable energy in achieving Net Zero, featuring experts like Dr. Elizabeth Lindstad from SINTEF Ocean. Port performance and supply chain resilience post-pandemic will be addressed by Hassiba Benamara from the United Nations.

Further, the meeting will explore shipping performance from both shippers' and operators' perspectives, with a focus on sustainability and efficiency, and conclude with a strategic discussion on shipping and fleet development, led by Carl-Johan Hagman from NYK Group Europe Ltd.

For more information and how to register, click below:

Maritime Data has launched a Job Board!

What: This board will feature a curated selection of the latest and greatest job opportunities in the Maritime Data and Analytics sector

Why: To connect our readers with exciting career opportunities and assist our partners in finding top talent to drive their business

Where: http://www.maritimedata.ai/job-board

2 featured opportunities:

Interested in posting your job opportunity? Click the link below to get started

Post your job

How we can help

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A member of the team will reach out within 24 hours

2. Book a call with the team

Explore which of our 200+ data and analytics solutions can support you

3. Join our network of 40+ partners

Start receiving enquiries and meeting new clients

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Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

• Distillate Disconnect (link)

• For almost a year, Russia’s dark fleet has had free access to Denmark (link)

• Divergent views on future oil demand from IEA and OPEC (link)

• Limited seaborne trade volumes raise questions on demand and freight rates (link)

• Residue processing set to gain traction in China (link)

• Momentum for further price gains for rice and sugar (link)

• Javier Milei wins presidential race. How will Brazil’s relationship with the neighbor country fare? (link)

Deeper Dive 🔎

• Dry bulk carrier market, supply & demand balance (link)

• Port Efficiency and Congestion Trends: Insights from Windward’s October 2023 Container Port Analysis (link)

• Shipping companies fail to set science-based climate targets | Houthis ‘hijack’ Israel-owned car carrier | Containership values drop (link)

New Products 🚀

Refined Product Supply & Demand Kpler

Maritime Data and The Loadstar launch 35+ page market research report on the challenges and features most important to users of Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions

Upcoming Events 🗓️

Kpler host NYC Market Briefing

Just before we get into it…

Maritimedata.ai is launching a Job board!

What: This board will feature a curated selection of the latest and greatest job opportunities in the Maritime Data and Analytics sector

Why: To connect our readers with exciting career opportunities and assist our partners in finding top talent to drive their business growth.

When: Launching on 30th November 2023

How to Post a Job: Interested in posting your job opportunity? Click the link below to get started

Dry bulk carrier market, supply & demand balance

In October 2023 the dry bulk fleet stands for 967M dwt of the world total fleet of 2,253M teu or 43%. This is spread on 12,861 ships, which also makes it the most numerous merchant fleet. In Figure 6 the fleet is illustrated by the year of delivery, including the current orderbook to the right-hand side of the orange line.

Figure 6: Dry bulk carrier fleet, age profile, million dwt

For the full post click here: Link

Port Efficiency and Congestion Trends: Insights from Windward’s October 2023 Container Port Analysis

China

As concerns persist about the strength of Chinese exports, TEU capacity berthing at ports across the region declined approximately 5% month-over-month. Only Ningbo and Qingdao posted slight increases, while Yantian decreased 20% on a monthly basis. With the decreased TEU capacity berthing, seven of eight ports in the region had congestion levels below their 24-month average levels. Only Hong Kong was just barely positive, at 1% above the 24-month average. As congestion decreases, transit times fall in tandem. Read more below to see which ports have notable advantages on specific trades.

For the full post, click here: Link

A fleet of ageing liquefied petroleum gas carriers used to ship hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of propane and butane from Iran has been tracked to a complex network of companies controlled on paper by the part-owner of a Georgian restaurant in south London.

A Lloyd’s List investigation has uncovered how corporate structures established for the fleet over the past decade helped sidestep US sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical shipping sector. The paper trail also yields a rare glimpse into those behind the web of brass plate companies created to obfuscate the controlling interests of ships that routinely deployed deceptive shipping practices to carry sanctioned Iranian cargoes.

The investigation was sparked by an explosion on board a 51-year-old LPG tanker on August 10, the Panama-flagged White Purl (IMO: 7230666).

For the full post, click here: Link

Refined Product Suppy and Demand Kpler

From Kpler’s recent Linkedin post:

Introducing our latest product to the market: Refined Product Supply & Demand

Kpler’s new product is the only model that incorporates its market-leading hashtag#trade flow data, which provides customers with a unique edge in the market and enables them with a more trusted path to refined product market analysis.

Key Features:

◾ 18 Month Forecast: Plan effectively with trustworthy data

◾ 7 Products in Scope: Understand the critical interplay of product markets

◾ 5 Year History: Gain the full scope of seasonal trends

◾ Easy Integration: Excel Add-In, API, SDK, liveDB and Snowflake integrations

Speak to us about Kpler’s Refined Product Supply and Demand:

New Ocean Freight Visibility Market Report

• What: Launch of a Market Research Report on Ocean Freight Visibility, in partnership between Maritime Data and The Loadstar.

• How: Survey conducted with targeted experts, including managers, specialists, and executives, focusing on industry challenges, feature preferences, and pricing attitudes.

• Why: To assist product and go-to-market teams in better understanding their buying audience, amidst the surge in technology solutions for cargo visibility.

• Who: Targeted at Product Managers, Marketing and Commercial Teams

I’m particularly proud of the team for creating what we believe to be, the most comprehensive and scientifically thorough research study available today on the most pressing challenges and sought after features from users across the Supply Chain.

For more information and a free sample report:

Kpler market insight briefing new york

2024's Battle Royale: Bearish demand concerns slugging it out versus bullish OPEC+ cuts. Who will land the knockout blow? ‍

When: December 7 2023, 4:30-9:30pm

Where: New York City, NY

Join Kpler in New York on December 7 as our panel of esteemed market experts debate the key factors faced, including OPEC+ policy, changing trends in global flows, Chinese demand expectations, and evolving US market dynamics as we prepare to enter an exceedingly eventful US election year. The gloves are off!

For more information and how to register, click below:

How we can help

1. Submit your requirement

A member of the team will reach out within 24 hours

2. Book a call with the team

Explore which of our 200+ data and analytics solutions can support you

3. Join our network of 40+ partners

Start receiving requirements and meeting new clients

You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem.

Source, evaluate and purchase maritime data and analytics from the largest network of specialised providers in the world.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

Insights 📈

• Higher Demand for Seaborne Transportation Could Signal Higher Prices and a Recovery for the Chinese Economy (link)

• Brazilian container exports decline, imports show growth in September (link)

• Higher monthly Brazilian soybean volumes to China for 2023(link)

• Atlantic Basin driving high Suezmax performance even as long-haul Russian employment falters (link)

• Who pay’s shipping’s new emission tax + Tanker market update (link)

• Dry Commodities Outlook: A Closer Look at Steel, Coal and Agricultural Markets in 2023-2024 (link)

• Users who are more aware of the challenges addressed by Ocean Freight Visibility solutions are less likely to make a purchase? (link)

Deeper Dive 🔎

• Commodities Ranking for the East Coast South America | Jan-Sep 2022 vs. Jan-Sep 2023 | TEU (link)

• Dark Fleet consolidates Russian oil shipments dominance | Reward outweighs risk for Ukraine’s Danube traders | Box spot rates hold (link)

New Products 🚀

Vessel Watch - Identifying Vessels not transmitting AIS Ursa Space Systems

Trade Lane Analytics - Essential insights into Carrier performance data Gatehouse Maritime

Marine Traffic launch new email management solution (Link)

What do users want really from an Ocean Freight Visibility Solution? New Market Research (Link)

Upcoming Events 🗓️

Kpler host NYC Market Briefing

Meet our new partners

Ursa Space Systems provide satellite intelligence infrastructure, powered by a growing catalog of eleven million SAR images from the world’s largest virtual radar satellite constellation.

Their maritime capabilities include Port Monitoring, Vessel Detection and Clarification and Oil Intelligence solutions.

Port Cast are Ocean Freight Visibility solution providers specializing in Real-Time Transportation Visibility and Predictive Insights.

Real-Time Container Tracking Data

Predicted ETAs and ETDs for Containers

Port Terminal Visibility for Import & Export

New Products 🚀

Vessel Watch Ursa Space Systems

Ursa’s Vessel Detection product is an operational, SAR-based solution for detecting vessels near ports and in open ocean.

Why we’re particularly excited to partner with Ursa is their solutions ability to:

• The ability to detect and identify vessels that are not transmitting AIS for a more complete picture of maritime domain awareness

• An additional mechanism by which to confirm a vessel's activity to approve transactions with confidence

• Identify and detect trading vessels that are not transmitting AIS to adjust views on supply and demand

For our full commentary and additional technical information on Vessel Watch, click here:

https://www.maritimedata.ai/post/new-vessel-watch-ursa-space-systems

Speak to us about Vessel Watch:

Trade Lane Analytics Gatehouse Maritime

Trade Lane Analytics- Visibility and Risk Management beyond Shipment Tracking.

One question BCOs and Freight Forwarders (if not everyone’s who book containers from ocean carriers), would like to get an answer for, is how a carrier performs on their preferred trade lane.

While deciding which carrier to use and negotiating the prices, insights such as overall delays, port omits, and rollover of containers can also be beneficial for this discussion.

Trade Lane Analytics from GateHouse Maritime presents these essential statistics to evaluate which carrier to choose for shipping goods. Their data can answer the following questions:

• How many omits took place for both the Port of Origin and Port of Destination?

• How many times has the carrier delayed compared to the data provided in the original Schedule (both POL and POD)?

• How many times did rollovers take place?

• How many times has sailing been cancelled?

• Does my carrier perform better or worse compared to the others?

Read more about Trade Lane Analytics here (Trade Lane Analytics (oceanio.com)

Speak to us about Trade Lane Analytics:

Kpler market insight briefing new york

2024's Battle Royale: Bearish demand concerns slugging it out versus bullish OPEC+ cuts. Who will land the knockout blow? ‍

When: December 7 2023, 4:30-9:30pm

Where: New York City, NY

Join Kpler in New York on December 7 as our panel of esteemed market experts debate the key factors faced, including OPEC+ policy, changing trends in global flows, Chinese demand expectations, and evolving US market dynamics as we prepare to enter an exceedingly eventful US election year. The gloves are off!

For more information and how to register, click below:

How we can help

1. Submit your requirement

A member of the team will reach out within 24 hours

2. Book a call with the team

Explore which of our 200+ data and analytics solutions can support you

3. Join our network of 40+ partners

Start receiving enquiries and meeting new clients

You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• New Chapter in African Energy (link)

• Pole Star Global acquires StratumFive Group (link)

• Crackdown On Russian Oil Price Cap Breaches Begins (link)

• Beyond the reach of sanctions: shipping oil via the Northern Sea Route (link)

• Tanker market report - Back in Black? (link)

• Capesize tonne days growth from Brazil to China reaches new high (link)

• Crude tanker fundamentals signal short-term support (link)

• Demand for Russian coal dominated by shipments to China, India and the Middle East (link)

Deeper Dive 🔎

• Analyzing the Russia Risk Regime Windward

New Product 🚀

• A New Destination Model Vortexa 

• Trade Lane Analytics Gatehouse Maritime

Before we get into things, meet our new partners:

Beacon’s supply chain visibility and collaboration platform empowers organisations to achieve more efficient, reliable and sustainable supply chains.

ShipFix’s Dry Cargo Market Intelligence Solution utilizes their proprietary data from Spot Orders and Tonnage Circulars to provide users with a unique view on Supply and Demand.

Datamar have been running for 30+ and are widely considered by the Logistics industry to be the most trust worthy source of maritime trade data in South America.

Signal Ocean is powered by a blend of Artificial Intelligence technologies and patented data fusion and forecasting models. Their data engines securely process your private data, delivering customised insights that enhance decision-making, negotiation and trading.

Analyzing the Russia Risk Regime Windward

This post is an excerpt from Windward’s latest Q3 Risks Report.

Russian Oil Exports – Direct Voyages

When comparing the overall number of direct voyages from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, it's clear that the volume of Russian oil being directly exported from Russia stayed more or less the same throughout the war and the developing sanctions. While the volume stayed the same, the destinations have changed quite drastically:

U.S./EU/UK

In Q2 2023, the average number of direct Russian oil exports was 32. This number dropped by 18% during Q3 2023. It seems like the volume of Russian oil to USA/EU/UK is continuously dropping, but has not yet completely stopped, even with the advanced sanctions posed.

Middle East/India

While Q2 2023 showed an increase in direct exports, Q3 marked a decrease to both destinations – a 14% and 10% decrease to the Middle East and India respectively.

LATAM

Q3 marked a new all-time high of direct export voyages to LATAM with a 30% increase. This is interesting, as we identified this continuous increase coming from one specific country – Brazil. Since the beginning of 2023, the number of direct voyages of Russian oil to Brazil has increased by 186%.

Tanker Voyages through the Bering Straits

In Q3 2023, an interesting trend emerged of both crude oil and oil products tankers leaving Russia through the Bering Straits, to China. 

While the passage through Bering is clearly subject to seasonality, when comparing Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, there is an increase of 50% in Straits passages by tankers coming from Russia.

In addition to the overall traffic increase in the area, in 2022 there was only one such voyage from Russia to China through the Bering Straits. In Q3 of 2023 there were 10 – an increase of 900%.

Refined Oil Exports – by Origin and Destination

The data indicates that following the oil products price cap, many Western destinations imported refined oil from countries known to import Russian crude oil throughout the war:

• Refined oil exports from India to the EU increased by 100% after the oil product price cap in February 2023

• In 2023, the average monthly number of refined oil exports from Turkey increased by 29% when compared to 2022 – 50% of exports are destined to the Middle East

• Refined oil exports from Turkey to the Middle East increased by 37% after the oil products price cap in February 2023

For more information such as:

• A Deep Dive into Deceptive Shipping Practices Involving Russian Vessels 🇷🇺

• A Spotlight on Ship to Ship Operations 🚢↔️🚢

• The Latest Hubs for Dark Activities 📍

• Direct Cargo Exports from EU to Russia 🇪🇺➡️🇷🇺

• The Growth and Destinations of the Gray/Dark Fleet 📈

Use this link to download the full report: Link

Destination Model Vortexa 

This is a post by Maritime Data made from a recent Vortexa white paper, Piecing together the puzzle of the Global Energy Markets that supported the recent release of their new Destination Model.

The Challenge

Predicting a tanker's destination is not merely about data points but serves as the foundation for understanding oil and gas flows, vessel availability, and the global energy market dynamics. These predictions are vital for clients, offering them invaluable insights that help manage the complexities of the energy industry with confidence and foresight.

Volatility in Energy Markets

The energy market is subject to constant changes due to demand fluctuations, geopolitical events, regulatory updates, and even natural disasters. This volatility adds an additional layer of complexity to predicting vessel routes and schedules.

Confidentiality and Competitive Advantage

Shipping routes and schedules are usually confidential, aimed at providing energy companies with a competitive edge. This makes the task of predicting a vessel's destination even more challenging.

Dynamic Changes in Vessel Routes

Vessels often change their declared destinations mid-voyage due to new orders, usually spurred by shifts in cargo buyers. This practice is prevalent in the industry and is driven by the desire to maximize profits.

Arbitrage Opportunities

Price fluctuations in the international scope of the energy market can lead to arbitrage opportunities. A cargo initially bound for one location could be rerouted to another if a significant price differential emerges, complicating predictions further.

Technological Limitations

Technologies like the Automatic Identification System (AIS) can be unreliable, providing incomplete or noisy data. In some cases, information may be deliberately falsified, or tracking systems tampered with, to maintain secrecy or create confusion.

Geopolitical and Regulatory Considerations

Countries under international sanctions may take roundabout routes or deactivate their AIS transponders to evade scrutiny and detection, further complicating the task of prediction.

Multifaceted Logistics

The process of transporting energy can include multiple stops, transfers, and possibly interim storage, adding another layer of complexity.

The Solution

1. Data Ingestion & Augmentation

• Vortexa validates and cleans the incoming data to create a 'super-ping', a consolidated data point that captures a vessel's movement.

2. Data Enrichment and Feature Generation

• 'Super-pings' are enriched with additional details such as vessel history and fixtures (agreements between charterers and shipowners).

• Manual adjustments, known as 'overrides', are incorporated into the models, adding a layer of human expertise.

• The data is transformed into a normalized numerical vector, using techniques such as Natural Language Processing (NLP) and one-hot encoding.

An augmented super-ping, encapsulating additional information about the vessel at hand, its history, as well as contractual obligations or override-info by our analysts

3. The Destination Model Pipelines

• The data undergoes further enrichment and then serves as input for predictive modeling.

• The pipelines for training the model and making inferences are closely aligned to ensure consistency.

4. Neural Network Modelling

• Neural Networks (NNs) form the core of the predictive model, designed to simulate human brain functions.

• The NNs employ layers of interconnected nodes to process information, and their weights are adjusted through a process called backpropagation.

5. Evaluation

• The model is evaluated based on three main criteria: Accuracy, Coverage, and Volatility.

• Once evaluated, models are versioned and stored for reproducibility.

6. Final Output

• The model produces a probability distribution that represents the likelihood of a vessel heading to specific ports or STS zones.

• To make these predictions more comprehensible, the probabilities are aggregated on a per-vector basis.

Figure 9: The final form of the two pipelines, with the addition of the post-prediction-processing components

7. ETA Prediction

• Once a prediction is generated, it is enriched with an Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) using a separate, battle-tested service.

• For fine-tuning the ETA prediction, another model that predicts port congestion and potential delays is leveraged.

Through this comprehensive approach, Vortexa aims to provide a solution that is technologically advanced, accurate, and reliable, while also being deeply rooted in industry expertise.

For more details + segments we didn’t cover in our summary such as:

• How the industry currently approaches this challenge

• The results they have seen from the upgrade

• A look to future work

Use this link to download the full white paper: Link 

Trade Lane Analytics Gatehouse Maritime

A post by Gatehouse Maritime

TEASER: Trade Lane Analytics- A new product from GateHouse Maritime for monitoring carrier performance.

‘Your carrier is leaving with a delay (again) and only half of your booked containers are making it to the vessel’. This is not the first time you have heard this.

What if we tell you that there is a way of seeing how your selected ocean carrier performs on your trade lane compared to the others? That is Trade Lane Analytics by GateHouse Maritime, available from November 2023 through REST API.

Stay tuned for more!

How we can help

If you’re interested in Buying Data from our network of 40+ partners:

1. Submit your new requirement

A member of the team will reach out within 24 hours

2. Book a call with the team

If you’re interested in joining our partner network - click here

You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• Oil cap breach fails to stop compliant shipments from Russia (Link)

• What is Transit Time? Everything you need to know (Link)

• Trade slows but containership orderbook remains strong (Link)

• Taking a dangerous shortcut? (Link)

• The interesting details about Ireland’s huge cocaine bust (Link)

• WTI continues to shine as hedge funds cool down on Brent buying (Link)

Deeper Dive

• Macroeconomic development Trade Views

• VLCC’s fate in the hands of OPEC+ and China Vortexa

Macroeconomic development Trade Views

Macro economy

• CHINA – New bank loans in China surged in August to 1.36 trillion yuan, nearly quadrupling from July’s total and providing a sign that China’s beleaguered property sector may be finally starting to recover. On a negative note, trading in shares of property development giant China Evergrande Group were halted again in late September and the company’s chairman and founder put under police investigation.

• UNCTAD – UNCTAD has published its latest 2023 review of maritime transport. The report found that maritime trade volume contracted marginally by 0.4% in 2022 but is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023. Over the medium term out to 2028, total seaborne trade is expected to grow by 2.1% to 2.2% per year. As a result of disruptions from the war in Ukraine, shipments of grain travelled longer distances in 2023 than any other year on record.

• WTO – The World Trade Organisations’ latest World Trade Report confirms that geopolitical tensions are beginning to affect trade flows, including in ways that point towards fragmentation of trading relationships. The WTO looked at two hypothetical geopolitical blocs base on voting patterns at the UN General Assembly. They calculate that trade flows between the blocs had grown 4-6% more slowly than trade within the blocs. However, despite these findings, the WTO contends that international trade continues to thrive and that talk of de-globalisation is on balance still not supported by the data.

World Trade Report Findings:

Steel

• OECD – The OECD Steel Committee has expressed grave concern about the deterioration in global steel market conditions currently being driven by growing overcapacity, softening demand for steel, and government interventions in some economies. They noted that world steelmaking capacity has swollen to a record-high of 2.5 billion tonnes in 2023 leaving a gap 612 million tonnes between global capacity and global production.

• EU – The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into force on 1 October 2023. The European steel association EUROFER said that the initial phase of CBAM, with simplified monitoring and reporting, will be crucial to assess how watertight its functioning is in preventing carbon leakage to other countries that continue to invest in highly CO2 intensive technologies.

• The increased electrification of steelmaking in Europe is expected to boost EU scrap consumption resulting in shortages of feedstock which could eventually result in creating demand for scrap imports according to participants at the European Steel Congress in Poland.

• JAPAN – The Japan Iron and Steel Federation said that the country’s crude steel output is expected to stay below 90 million tonnes in the fiscal year to end-March 2024 due to weak domestic demand in the construction and other sectors.

Coal

• INDIA – The Indian government has directed domestic coal-based power generating companies to blend 4% imported coal through to March 2024 to ensure ample stocks at power plants. This followed a surge in power demand in August amid hot weather and what turned out to be the driest August in a century. According to the Grid Controller of India, electricity consumption in August hit a record 152 billion kilowatt-hours, way above the previous record of 140 billion kWh set in June. Electricity generation in August increased by 21 billion kWh year-on-year of which 16 kWh came from coal-fired units.

Agriculture

• FAO – The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation’s world food price index fell in August to a two-year low reversing the July rise which reflected the termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and India’s trade restrictions on rice exports. Price declines in most food commodities offset price rises for rice and sugar. The rice price index rose 9.8% to reach a 15-year high.

• Global exports of rice in the 2023/24 season were reduced by 0.84 million tonnes with a forecast reduction of 1.5 million tonnes in exports from India partially offset by minor increases in exports from other source countries. The USDA had already cut Indian rice exports by 4 million tonnes in its August report following government restrictions on the trade announced in July.

Forestry

• FINLAND – Finland’s forest products sector is facing a shortage of supply due to the ending of raw timber imports from Russia. Stora Enso has announced that the Sunila pulp mill in Kotka is to close by the end of the year due to no longer being profitable following the loss of Russian timber supply.

• ROMANIA – The European Commission has authorised a Romanian scheme worth 200 million euros to compensate forest owners for timber not cut for mandatory ecological reasons. The scheme, which runs to the end of 2027, aims to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, improve ecosystem services and preserve habitats and landscapes.

Download the full report here: Link

VLCC’s fate in the hands of OPEC+ and China Vortexa

As the crude market struggles to supply stable volumes of crude amid OPEC+ voluntary cuts as well as seasonal declines in Russian crude exports, prices have continued to trend higher.

• The supply-side restrictions had kept crude tanker rates low, particularly for VLCCs heading to China

• However these are now finding support

There has been slight demand side support, partly driven by a small pickup in VLCC tonne-days towards Asia out of Saudi Arabia, as m-o-m preliminary exports have shown a sharp increase in September.

• This could indicate rates have reached a floor for 2023

• However, with crude volumes towards China remaining low due to inventory draws supporting high refinery runs more than crude imports, demand upside for VLCCs is likely to remain capped in

  the short term.

If rising crude prices prompt a reduction of the current voluntary cuts, this could support VLCCs heading towards the end of the year.

How we can help

If you’re interested in Buying Data from our network of 35+ partners:

1. Submit your new requirement

A member of the team will reach out within 24 hours

2. Book a call with the team

If you’re interested in joining our partner network - click here

You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• Brazil no longer taking China’s place in the US (link)

• Windward Port Insights - August 2023 (link)

• Russian Oil Exports & Price Dynamics (link)

• Why Businesses are Betting on Data Mesh Architecture (link)

• 10 Questions to Consider When Looking at Supply Chain Visibility (link)

Products 🚀

• Vortexa unveil new destination model (link)

• Maritime Data x The Loadstar set to launch Ocean Freight Visibility Market Report

Deeper Dive

• Top 5 reasons for Shipping Container delays

Any other business

• LISW 🇬🇧 recap

• WEBINAR (link): Exception Management for Navigating an Unpredictable Landscape Windward

Maritime Data x The Loadstar set to launch Ocean Freight Visibility Market Report

What:

Maritime Data, in partnership with The Loadstar have conducted a market research survey to understand Loadstar readers sentiments on the Ocean Freight Visibility market, to provide an insight to suppliers and prospective suppliers of these solutions to support product development and go-to-market decisions.

How:

Running a survey for six weeks for Loadstar readers, we have collected 77 responses with questions focused on the industry challenges, feature preferences and sentiments on pricing across a broad section of the market, with a particular focus on Cargo Owners, Freight Forwarders, 3PLs, and Carriers.

Why:

Since the Coronavirus pandemic, and the seismic issues it caused to the supply chain, there has been a marked increase in new technology solutions to address this. The range of features, challenges addressed, delivery mechanisms and overall go-to-market has been extremely varied, so this research report looks to provide data to help product and go-to-market teams understand their audience and develop/target appropriately.

Benefits:

Product Management and Development Data on what challenges are most keenly felt within the industry, as well as what product features, benefits and delivery mechanism can help support your strategic direction and development decisions.

Go-To-Market Data on the which challenges have the most market resonance, as well as the key features and product points are the most requested to help drive targeting marketing content and arm your commercial teams with the right talking points to maximise each engagement.

The report is scheduled to be complete and available for purchase Oct 2023.

Email Info@maritimedata.ai for more details.

Deeper Dive

Top 5 Reasons for Shipping Container Delays

A post by Marine Traffic

Unpredictability seems to be the theme of our modern world, especially when it comes to global supply chains.

From a pandemic that has thrown industries around the world into turmoil, to labour shortages and trade policy changes, shipping container delays have become an all too common headache for businesses.

In this article, we’ll go over the top 5 reasons for container shipping delays and how businesses can effectively manage them.

What is the impact of shipping container delays?

Shipping container delays can have far-reaching effects on various industries and businesses around the world. They can impact supply chains, customer satisfaction, shipping rates, and overall business operations.

One of the main consequences of shipping container delays is increased costs. When goods arrive late, companies can incur additional costs such as storage fees, expedited shipping fees or even fines for late deliveries.

These additional costs can significantly reduce profit margins.

Supply chain disruption is another factor. Delays in the delivery of key components or finished products can lead to production bottlenecks and inventory shortages. This affects the entire ecosystem of suppliers, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers.

Customer satisfaction also suffers when there are delays in shipping containers. Consumers expect their orders to be delivered on time, and delays in the delivery of goods can lead to negative reviews, customer complaints and a damaged brand reputation.

In addition, the longer waiting times caused by these delays can upset carefully planned schedules.

This creates inefficiencies in resource allocation as companies struggle to accurately forecast demand or plan future deliveries, and creates backlogs and uncertainty.

Overall, the impact of shipping container delays goes beyond mere inconvenience; it affects profitability, customer satisfaction, supply chain efficiency, and long-term business strategies.

Reason #1: Port Congestion

Port congestion is when a number of ships are waiting outside a port and are unable to load or unload cargo because the terminal is already full, resulting in “traffic” at sea.

The more traffic that’s at the port, the later a container ship will unload its cargo, for example, and the higher the costs that will pile up for the shipping company to pay in the end.

Port congestion is one of the main causes of delays in container shipping, and its effects are exacerbated by various factors.

While world trade continues to recover after the pandemic-related slowdown, ports around the world are struggling to cope with rising cargo volumes.

Rising consumer demand for goods, combined with supply chain disruptions and labour shortages, has led to containers piling up at major ports (e.g. the American ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, two major hubs for trans-Pacific trade between Asia and North America).

Shipping companies have problems finding free berths for cargo ships due to limited capacity in busy ports, resulting in longer waiting times for ships.

You might find yourself wondering, “What’s that got to do with me?”

Well, those goods you were expecting in Shanghai last week? Looks like they’ll be making their debut next week instead!

In addition, there is a shortage of lorry drivers to transport containers from the port to their final destinations.

Port congestion not only impacts retailers and manufacturers, but also freight forwarders who rely on timely deliveries.

They disrupt supply chains and contribute to rising freight rates as shipping companies try to compensate for delays.

In response to the challenges of port congestion, MarineTraffic introduces an innovative port call optimisation solution that uses cutting-edge technology and data analytics to provide a holistic view of port activity.

By seamlessly integrating vessel schedules, port operations, and weather conditions, the platform enables accurate prediction of vessel arrival and departure times.

Reason #2: Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain disruptions have recently become a common occurrence in global shipping.

The global supply chain relies heavily on the smooth flow of goods from one location to another but, when disruptions occur, they can cause significant delays to shipping containers.

For example, during the pandemic, widespread lockdowns and restrictions imposed by most countries were a major factor causing supply chain disruptions. Fortunately, these measures are no longer in place today.

However, when companies are forced to shut down production or operate at reduced capacity, it creates a domino effect throughout the supply chain that is still being felt today.

For months, factories were unable to produce at full capacity, causing bottlenecks and delays in the provision of products for ocean shipping.

Another factor contributing to supply chain disruptions is the occasional high demand for certain products.

As consumer demand fluctuates and skyrockets due to seasonal events such as Christmas or certain trends, shippers and carriers come under pressure to cope with the increased volume.

In addition, trade tensions between countries can disrupt supply chains. Changes in trade policy or tariffs can affect import and export flows and create uncertainty for shippers.

Natural disasters such as hurricanes or earthquakes can also severely impact supply chains by damaging infrastructure and disrupting transport networks.

These unforeseen circumstances make it difficult for shipping companies to manage their operations effectively.

MarineTraffic’s comprehensive geographic information through our AIS API services helps navigate the intricate interplay of these elements, which together influence all facets of global trade.

This valuable feature is seamlessly integrated into our plans and allows users to access detailed geographic data and insights to enhance their maritime operations and decision-making processes.

Reason #3: Labour Shortages

Post-pandemic, many industries faced workforce shortage due to closures, restrictions, and reduced labour participation, including the shipping industry.

Another factor is the change in consumer demand during the pandemic. As online shopping surged, retailers had to adapt quickly.

The sudden increase in e-commerce put additional strain on warehouses and distribution centres, which were already struggling with labour shortages.

In addition, travel restrictions can make it difficult for foreign workers to enter certain regions or return home at the end of their contract.

Many distribution centres rely heavily on migrant workers, who may face obstacles due to visa restrictions or quarantine regulations.

The combination of these factors has led to a reduction in capacity at ports and terminals and longer processing times for cargo handling. The lack of available labour has created bottlenecks throughout the supply chain, leading to delays.

To effectively address this labour shortage, industry players need to explore innovative solutions such as automation technologies that can streamline processes and reduce dependence on human resources.

MarineTraffic offers a valuable solution to reduce port congestion and vessel traffic delays.

Using advanced berth planning techniques, our tool enables precise coordination of vessel arrivals, departures and berth assignments, alleviating congestion by strategically allocating berths based on real-time data.

This efficient allocation minimises idle time, improves berth utilisation, reduces vessel traffic delays, and significantly optimises turnaround times.

Reason #4: Customs Clearance

When goods are transported across international borders, they must go through customs to ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.

This can often be a time-consuming process, causing delays in getting containers cleared for delivery.

Customs clearance involves various tasks such as checking documents, inspecting goods, paying duties and taxes and obtaining the necessary permits or licences.

Each country has its own rules and procedures, which may differ from one another. The complexity and rigour of these procedures can lead to bottlenecks and delays at ports.

This is especially true for more sensitive sea cargo such as medical goods or perishable products that require special documentation or testing.

To avoid delays in customs clearance, shippers should ensure that all required documents are complete and correct before shipment.

They should also keep up to date with any changes to the regulations and requirements applicable to their trade routes.

Some technology solutions can streamline the customs clearance process by automating the submission of paperwork and facilitating communication between the various parties involved.

While customs clearance is an essential part of international trade, it can also contribute significantly to delays in shipping containers.

Shippers need to stay informed of changing regulations and use digital tools for a smoother process.

MarineTraffic contributes to more efficient customs clearance processes.

With accurate real-time forecasts of vessel arrivals and departures and integration of vessel schedules and insights into port operations, port authorities can better predict when vessels will arrive in port.

This allows customs officials to use their resources more efficiently, streamline inspection procedures and ensure timely clearance.

Reason #5: Trade Policy Shifts

Trade policy shifts have become a significant factor contributing to shipping container delays in recent years.

With the ever-changing landscape of global trade, governments around the world are introducing new policies and regulations that can disrupt supply chains and slow down the movement of goods.

One example is the trade tensions between China and the United States, which has led to increased scrutiny at ports and causes delays in customs clearance.

These disruptions affect not only shippers, but also retailers and consumers who rely on timely delivery of goods.

Additionally, Brexit has had a profound impact on trade flows between Europe and the UK.

The introduction of new customs procedures, border controls, and regulatory changes have led to bottlenecks in many European ports and longer transit times for containers.

The war in Ukraine that began last year is now also causing disruptions in the supply chain.

Finally, the various lockdown measures put in place during the pandemic further exacerbated ocean freight delays.

Governments around the world imposed movement restrictions, resulting in reduced staffing levels at ports and increased controls for health security reasons.

MarineTraffic uses real-time data and advanced analytics to make accurate predictions of vessel arrivals and departures.

By precisely coordinating vessel movements and optimising the allocation of berths, congestion and bottlenecks in ports are reduced, thus reducing delays in container shipping.

This leads to smoother logistics, optimised turnaround times and improved overall operational efficiency.

LISW 🇬🇧 Recap

Generally speaking, it was a fantastic week of well organised events and enough canapés and free drinks to feed a small sovereign state.

As per the last edition of the newsletter we were particularly excited about a handful of events that focussed on how technology and geopolitics are shaping shipping and trade.

Here’s my thoughts on 3 of my favorite events from the week:

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: First LISW event in the books ✅ Navigating the Future: Opportunities of…

First LISW event in the books ✅ Navigating the Future: Opportunities of A.I. Based Solutions was an event put on by Dryad Global - Maritime Risk Intelligence…

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: The second event of LISW 🇬🇧 was as predicted, my personal favorite…

The second event of LISW 🇬🇧 was as predicted, my personal favorite. The Geopolitics of Shipping event put on by WTW in their impressive facilities lived…

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: Unleashing the power of pricing and AI in the energy sector 📈 🛢

Unleashing the power of pricing and AI in the energy sector 📈 🛢 We had the pleasure of attending Vortexa inaugural Innovation Series event as a part of…

Honorable mentions:

DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050 launch event and reception – London International Shipping Week

DNV Launched their Maritime Forecast to 2050+ report + live panel on how to shape maritime’s energy future.

Emerging themes and opportunities for the marine market – London International Shipping Week

Digital twins for maritime monitoring
A new contractual architecture to aid decarbonisation
Data analytics shining a light on compliance risks, and opportunities

Webinar: Exception Management with Windward

A single event can quickly shake up the ocean freight supply chain. The ongoing Panama Canal disruption is a reminder that the world of logistics is still fraught with unexpected challenges. In parallel, a significant number of supply chain professionals are already searching for AI tools as a light tower to navigate these uncertain times.

Join Windward’s upcoming webinar, Exception Management for Navigating an Unpredictable Landscape, as their panel of experts discuss all of this and more.

Windward has been our valued long-term partner, and their remarkable contributions to the maritime ecosystem are truly exceptional – you absolutely won't want to miss this webinar opportunity. 

Save The Date 

Date: September 27, 2023

Time: 10:00 ET | 16:00 CET

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Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The newsletter provides you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the Maritime Data network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• Chaos in Gabon: Another military coup in Africa disrupts crude oil supply (link)

• Chinese crude oil imports hit all-time high in August (link)

• Increased waiting times for Bulk Vessels following Panama Canal drought (link)

• 36.9% increase in TEUs awaiting entry from July to August at Port of Shanghai (link)

• Russian Urals STS activity declines 85% from Q1 peak (link)

Deeper Dive

• Changing lanes: Is liner shipping heading towards overcapacity? Lloyd’s List 

• Dry Commodities Outlook: A Closer Look at Steel, Coal, Aluminium, and Grain Markets in 2023-2024 Tradeviews 

London International Shipping Week

• Our picks for the best events of the week 🇬🇧

Changing lanes: Is liner shipping heading towards overcapacity?

Forecasts indicate that the influx of fresh tonnage in the short to medium term will result in vessel supply outstripping demand. Such a scenario will require carriers to rely on many mechanisms to limit the impact of excess capacity

SLOW STEAMING, INCREASED SERVICE CALLS AND SCRAPPING WILL BE A MUST IF THE LINER INDUSTRY IS TO AVOID ANOTHER PERIOD OF OVERCAPACITY.

SUBDUED container demand has led to growing fears of an impending supply glut for container shipping and the repercussions of another era of overcapacity taking centre stage.

Such concerns do come with a degree of justification given the sector’s hefty and growing orderbook, and past form. Fortunately, however, there are signs that carriers are already making use of the tools at their disposal to absorb this fresh tonnage.

The influx of more than 1m teu (brought about by the deployment of 159 new vessels) accompanied by the removal of less than 40,000 teu (from 31 vessels of a maximum size of 4,300 teu), has resulted in an overall annual increase of 4.6% in global fleet capacity since the second quarter of 2022.

However, individual trade corridors have been affected differently by the introduction of the new vessels.

In terms of the number of vessels, the most attractive market has been the intra-Far East, where 70 new vessels have been allocated since the second quarter of 2023. As a standalone carrier, SITC has been responsible for largest volume of this trade allocation both in terms of total ship numbers and capacity.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of new vessels allocated to the intra-Far East market have been used to strengthen connectivity between China and other Asian countries as the production of manufactured goods continues to spread across the continent, most notably to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

MDST estimates that 82% of new vessels, or 94% of new capacity, has been allocated to trades serving China and these emerging manufacturing countries in the Far East on deepsea routes connecting the region with the rest of the world.

The results of our analysis are summarised in the following table:

Source Lloyd’s List Intelligence and company sources

As shipping lines have been adding new calls in their offered services and/or reducing their speeds, the annual 6% increase estimated in fleet capacity has translated into a lower annual rate of circa 3% in deployed capacity. This, in turn, has resulted in an overall reduction in the level of capacity offered per vessel deployed. At a global level, the mean contraction equates to -5.8%.

Breaking down the comparison between fleet capacity and deployed capacity, MDST's analysis shows that 25 out of 42 trade corridors served by the shipping lines in Q2 2022 and in Q2 2023 saw fleet capacity grow at a faster rate than deployed capacity.

This will raise concerns of the industry heading towards another supply glut given the significant level of shiny new tonnage due on the water in the coming months. But this will not necessarily be the case.

The way in which shipping lines have managed the additional 1m teu added to the market over the past year shows that there are ways to contain the increase in deployed capacity, whether through slow steaming and additional services to strings and loops. Further, it is equally plausible that in addition to these mechanisms adopted by carriers there too will be an intensification of vessel scrapping.

The total capacity of containerships scrapped so far in 2023 has amounted to 58,000 teu, which represents around just 0.3% of the existing containership fleet in Q3 2023; however, this still exceeds the minimal volume of containerships sent for scrappage in the whole of 2022, totalling just 9,200 teu.

As more new containerships start operations, it is expected that this accelerated scrapping trend will continue apace.

In the table below, MDST summarises the possible annual growth rates in fleet capacity in the event of vessels of 20+ years or 25+ years being scrapped up to 2027. MDST’s forecast suggests that the net impact will equate to an annual increase of 4.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

Source: MDS Transmodal, Containership Databank

As it stands, the most optimistic scenario is to close the year with flat container demand, although it appears more likely that volumes for 2023 will be lower than last year. However, expectations are for demand growth to re-emerge from 2024 onwards.

Based on our most up-to-date forecasts, MDST projects global demand for containerised goods to return to an annual growth rate in the region of 3% by 2027.

Comparing these projections with the current rate of increase expected on the supply side, including scrappage, MDST’s analysis suggests that the liner shipping industry will be faced with an overcapacity issue.

If carriers are to avoid such scenario then the combination of longer routes, more calls, and further scrappaging will have to be utilised to ensure this influx of new tonnage is manageable.

Antonella Teodoro is a senior analyst at MDS Transmodal. “Changing lanes” is a regular Lloyd’s List commentary

Dry Commodities Analysis: A Closer Look at Steel, Coal, Aluminium, and Grain Markets in 2023-2024

Every month, Tradeviews review all the recent important stories and events that shape dry cargo bulker demand. The intel from this report feeds their bottom up 5-year forecast, a servive that’s been serving Ship Owners, Brokers and Traders for over a decade.

Highlights:

Steel

• The World Steel Association estimated Chinese crude steel output in the first seven months of 2023 at 626.5 million tonnes, up 2.5% year-on-year. India’s output over the same period totalled 79.9 million tonnes, up 9.0% year-on-year.

• Baosteel reported at the end of August that China will continue to implement a cap on growth of steel output this year. The state-owned company confirmed that China will need to cut back on steel production over the remainder of the year to match last year’s output.

• Rio Tinto and a consortium of Chinese state-owned enterprises have announced that they had reached key agreements with the government of Guinea to build a trans-Guinean railway. Over 600 kilometres of rail with port facilities would unlock the world’s largest undeveloped deposit of high-grade, low-impurity iron ore in the Simandou mountain range. It has been agreed that the cost of the railway will be shared equally between the groups developing blocks 1 and 2 in the north and blocks 3 and 4 in the south. The Chinese decision to support the plan can be seen as a move to wean itself off reliance on Australian iron ore supply and signals a long-term boost to Capesize bulk carrier demand.

Coal

• The IEA expects a decrease in global coal-fired power generation in the second half of 2023 more than offsetting the first half gains. Global coal demand is projected to remain flat in 2024, with declines in power coal for the electricity sector offset by increases in industrial sector coal demand as economic conditions improve.

• The National Statistics Bureau reported that China’s coal production totalled 377.54 million tonnes in July, down 6.3% month-on-month when measured on an average daily tonnage basis and the lowest level since last October. The drop in output has been attributed to increased government mine safety inspections and to pricing of seaborne coal imports remaining competitive.

Aluminium

• The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production fell 0.48% year-on-year in July to total 5.861 million tonnes, with 59% produced in China. However, global production in the first seven months of this year totalled 40.07 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year.

•  China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s primary aluminium production in July totalled 3.48 million tonnes, up 1.5% year-on-year. Output in first seven months of 2023 totalled 23.62 million tonnes, up 2.8% year-on-year.

Grain

• The US Department of Agriculture’s August forecast updates contained a notable downward adjustment to 2023/24 grain season trade forecasts. Looking across export trade forecasts of the principal commodities (wheat, coarse grains, rice, soyabeans, and soyabean meal), net changes saw an overall trade decrease of 8.62 million tonnes, a fall of 1.16%. 2023/24 wheat export trade was marked down by 2.23 million tonnes with lower shipments out of Canada and the US only partially offset by a rise in the estimate for Russian exports. Ukrainian wheat exports were held at 10.5 million tonnes despite the ending of the Black Sea Grain agreement. Ukrainian wheat supply was marked up by 3.5 million tonnes due to a higher area harvested and increased yields (the second highest on record). However, most of this additional supply was added to storage.

•  Following on from its recent partial ban on rice exports, there were recent reports that the Indian government is now considering imposing a ban on sugar exports in the new marketing season starting in October. Back in May, the US Department of Agriculture forecast Indian sugar exports in the 2023/24 season at 7 million tonnes. TradeViews estimate that sugar exports in the current marketing season is likely to be just over 11 million tonnes. A decision on sugar exports will be taken when firm estimates of sugar production become available.
  
  The Indian government was also reported to be mulling importing Russian wheat at discounted prices to boost supplies and curb food inflation ahead of state and national elections next year.

Click here to open the full report. https://tradeviews.net/reports/dry-forecasting-report-september-2023/ .

London International Shipping Week

11 - 15 September 2023

While I’m sure there will be many great events on at LISW that do not feature on this list, here’s a day by day selection of our favorites and some that we plan to attend.

Monday 11th September:

LISW23 Shipping Risk Forum – London International Shipping Week

The Shipping Risk Forum brings together the London marine insurance and global shipping communities to examine how insurers are providing solutions to the key issues facing the maritime sector.

Marine Insurers have long been proponents of data and analytics to make informed decisions on risk vs reward.

They now have to contend with a maelstrom of changing dynamics from the proliferation of extreme weather events, changing geopolitical landscapes and the push towards decarbonation, but to name a few.

We’re interested to learn how Insurers are adjusting to these changes and how that’s affecting demand for information.

Tuesday 12th September:

Navigating the Future: Opportunities of A.I. Based Solutions – London International Shipping Week

This impressive Panel aims to delve into the fascinating realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the opportunities it presents for the maritime and shipping industry.

Love it or loath it, AI will have a transformative impact on the way world operates.

We’re looking forward to a discussion that will hopefully cover the good, the bad and the ugly ways in which AI will impact shipping and how we can expect the future of our industry to look as a result.

Geopolitics of Shipping – London International Shipping Week

This event explores how geopolitics impact the shipping industry, focusing on why shipping is intrinsically caught up by global conflicts & whether protectionist policies, the rise of AI, cybercrime and climate change bring major disruption to world trade?

While AI will no doubt be mentioned, there’s no real data and tech angle to our interest in this event, just a few amateur Geopolitics enthusiasts that have read Tim Marshall as a way to strengthen our arsenal of pub talking points.

On a more serious note, the recent effects of war, shifting trade alliances and climate change on shipping are undeniable and we’re looking forward to the Panel’s take on some of the biggest challenges that the maritime industry faces.

DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050 launch event and reception – London International Shipping Week

DNV launch their Maritime Forecast to 2050 report + live panel on How to shape Maritime’s energy future.

DNV always put on fantastic events and I imagine this will be no different.

This should be one of the flagship events of the week and we were therefore unsurprised to learn the live events was fully booked by the time we came round the registering.

You can however register for the virtual event, which we plan to do unless someone from DNV is reading this and is happy to exchange a few seats for an honest, but no doubt glowing Linkedin review!

Wednesday 13th September:

AI for Maritime Businesses Breakfast Briefing – London International Shipping Week

The Alan Turing Institute is the United Kingdom's national institute for data science and artificial intelligence. It is named after Alan Turing, the British mathematician and computing pioneer.

The Alan Turing Institute’s Data-Centric Engineering Programme is holding a breakfast briefing to delve into the rapidly growing area of AI and how this is key for businesses in the Maritime Sector.

S&P Global Commodity Insights Forum and Drinks Reception – London International Shipping Week

Pricing and market update
Tanker flows and alternative fuels outlook
The Future of Freight
And more…

While the final agenda is still being confirmed, we’re expecting 2 hours of insightful presentations and plenty of interesting discussions at the drinks reception to follow.

Black swan events: the risk of the unexpected – what we have learnt and what we can do? – London International Shipping Week

A seminar examining recent black swan events, their effect on the shipping industry and the lessons we have learnt.

Although this unfortunately clashes with the aforementioned commodity insights forum, this is a fascinating topic and having been to past events ran by Stephenson Harwood, expect a well structured and balanced discussion.

We would be particularly interested to learn how people reacted to the mentioned events in respect of their need for new data and information + whether or not those experiences have changed their data procurement strategies, perhaps investing more in preventive measures?

Thursday 14th September:

Breakfast Reception: Shaping Business Resilience with Maritime AI™ with Windward & LSEG – London International Shipping Week

We will discuss why shipping and trading stakeholders should be quick to combine Maritime AI™ and advanced shipping analytics, and how our joint partnership and solution can support business resilience.

T of the leading businesses in maritime data and analytics come together to discuss how the changing regulatory landscape is affecting shipping & trading companies alike + their solution to the problem(s).

BIMCO Panel Session- Electronic bills of lading – where are we now?

This BIMCO panel session will provide an update on the 25 by 25 pledge as well as an update on other relevant developments.

Our main interest here is to understand the knock on effect this might have on trade compliance.

That being said it’s a subject I haven’t paid a great deal of attention to and I’m interested to hear SMEs thoughts on the potential second order effects of the improved speed and efficiency, accuracy and transparency that EBOL’s proposed to bring.

Friday 15th September:

Vortexa Innovation Series – A voyage through innovations shaping the future of energy markets

Discover innovations shaping the future of the energy markets across:
Energy Flows, Freight Analytics and Intelligent Energy powered by AI and ML.

While I expect to be a shadow of my former self by this point of the week, I’m hoping my enthusiasm for the topics planned for Vortexa’s new Innovation Series will be a sufficient crutch to carry me through until the end.

Possibly the event I’m looking forward to the most all week, Vortexa have put together a stellar cast of leaders in business intelligence (+ a great selection of homegrown talent) to discuss the latest and greatest innovations in Energy and Freight Intelligence.

If you’re reading this from further afield and unfortunately can’t make it to LISW, there are 4 more events and registration is still open:

🇬🇧 London, September 14

🇺🇸 NYC, September 20

🇺🇸 Houston, September 21

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi, October 3

🇸🇬 Singapore, October 12

Enjoy the week and pack some paracetamol!

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Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the MDAI network.

The Best Links

Insights 📈

• How a historic drought has impacted the world’s most important canal (link)

• Iraq’s Wheat Trade: Stiff Competition Among the US and Australia (link)

• Global Seaborne Steamcoal by destination (link)

• Key Shifts in Global Dry Cargo Demand (link)

• Navigating Sanctions Compliance in Maritime Finance: Bridging the Compliance Gap (link)

Product launches 🚀

• Kpler launches new Terrestrial AIS Network following the acquisitions of Marine Traffic and Fleetmon (link)

Deeper Dive

• Aframax and Suezmax tankers find support in the Middle East for now with Vortexa

• Is shipping becoming more "science" and less "art"?

• Understanding Global Freight Market Shifts with Kpler

Aframax and Suezmax tankers find support in the Middle East for now

A post by Vortexa

Aframax and Suezmax utilisation out of the Middle East has increased sharply since the start of July

• This is in line with tankers in the Russian crude trade singling the Middle East as a destination on ballast voyages in the same month

Crude tanker utilisation out of the Persian Gulf per selected vessel class (no. of vessels) Source: Vortexa

Both tanker classes seem to be serving the Middle East-to-Med as well as the Middle East-to-India crude markets

• The increase is stemming from Middle Eastern countries other than Saudi Arabia

• This, coupled with lower Chinese crude demand has softened VLCC utilisation out of the region slightly

Looking ahead, increased exports from OPEC+ countries (excl. Saudi Arabia) are likely to be limited, which could cause tanker oversupply in the region

Is shipping becoming more "science" and less "art"?

This was a question asked by Roar Adland, Global Head of Research at Ship Broker, Simpson Spence Young in a recent Linkedin post.

He suggested it’s useful to think of Shipping Data as 3 Layers of information.

The geospatial layer involves standard ship tracking and cargo volume estimates, but location tracking may have gaps.

The commercial layer includes ship's commercial status, charterer details, and rates, with some segments being more transparent than others.

Connecting ship movements to commercial status is often difficult due to lack of direct correlation.

The third layer focuses on human behavior and decision-making influenced by available public and private information.

The interplay of these layers, combined with variations in data coverage, makes data-driven analysis challenging and as a result, Roar believes shipping analysis remains very much an art 🎨

Roar Adland (Ph.D., FICS) on LinkedIn: Is shipping becoming more “science” and less “art” ?

Is shipping becoming more "science" and less "art"? Intuitively, access to better information allows for a more scientific and less of a "seat of the pants" approach to chartering and S&P.

Understanding Global Freight Market Shifts

A post by Kpler

The global commodity shipping landscape is undergoing significant changes, and as a key player in the energy intelligence field, Kpler is at the forefront of tracking and analyzing these shifts. Here's a glance at the latest trends, focusing on the Russian and Greek markets.

Fewer Greek Loads from Russia

A decline in Greek owners loading clean and dirty products from Russia has led to a depression in rates for non-Russian loads. This has the potential to widen the two-tier freight market, resulting in more vessels being available for global load, and fewer from Russia.

Rising Diesel Prices and Market Shifts

The price of delivered diesel to ARA reached $122/bbl in the week beginning July 31st - the highest since the EU import ban on Russian refined products. This is leading to an altered market dynamic, with some clean tanker owners already shifting away from loading Russian refined products.

The Dirty Segment Mirror

A similar trend is observed in the dirty segment, with Greek owners avoiding Russian cargoes in the Black Sea and instead focusing on Kazakhstan CPC exports. This has pushed rates for these loads down and has had a profound impact on western Russian crude exports.

Share of loads of Western Russian crude by owner type since 5 December 2022 Source: Kpler

Implications for Freight

The change in Russian trade flows has significantly affected both the clean and dirty segments of freight. With Russian exports ton-miles of crude and refined products surging by 143% since 2021 (compared with 9% for the rest of the world), the ripple effect is being felt across the global tanker market.

Loosening Connection & Possible Repercussions

The recent decline in Greek owners loading Russian cargoes is loosening the connection between Russia and the rest of the market. If this disconnect continues to grow, it could result in a rise in the second-hand market for Greek ships.

G7 Stance and Future Considerations

The G7's current goal is to limit revenue without restricting trade. With no immediate signs of revising price caps, the continuing effect on freight rates may force a reevaluation of the existing policy.

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You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the MDAI network.

In this week’s edition:

• Key Themes in the Shifting Supply Chains and Trade Flows with Lloyd’s List

• Breaking the price cap with Poten and Partners

• Dawn-to-dusk imagery collection reveals rapid pace of construction for China’s second off-shore strategic naval port with BlackSky

• Russian Crude Market Update + Upcoming Market innovation series with Vortexa

• Tracking iron ore: focus on supply from Western Australia with Maritrace 

• The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch initiative to help companies in Supply Chain to test 3 market leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions

Key Themes in the Shifting Supply Chains and Trade Flows

Following the publication of one of Lloyd's List’s flagship pieces of annual content Top 100 Ports, APAC Editor, Cichen Sen made some interesting discoveries about shipping traffic between global container ports in 2021-2022 and how this illustrates some significant shifts in global supply chains and trade flows

1. Changes in Port Calls:

• The number of direct calls from China to the US decreased by 17% in 2022 compared to 2021, reflecting shifts in transpacific trade volumes and supply chain reconfiguration.

• China's successful zero-Covid strategy in 2021 led to the return of overseas orders to its factories, but the emergence of the Omicron variant in 2022 reversed this trend.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

2. "China Plus One" Strategy:

• As companies reconsidered reliance solely on China as the world's factory, they adopted a "China plus one" strategy, resulting in a 23% increase in direct port calls from China to Vietnam in 2022.

• Vietnam's growing exports to the West and increasing purchasing power contributed to its attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing destination.

3. Mexico's Benefit from China-US Rivalry:

• Mexico experienced a 14% increase in direct port calls from China in 2022 due to its role as a crucial path for "Made in China" products to bypass tariffs and enter the US market.

• China's foreign direct investment in Mexico has grown significantly, focused on industries exporting to the US.

4. Russia as a Positive Development for Chinese Manufacturers:

• China's exports to Russia in 2022 increased by 12.8% compared to 2021, and the number of direct port calls from China to Russia surged by 88%.

• Russia's Far East ports, such as Vladivostok, gained access to China's domestic transshipment trade, boosting trade volumes between the two countries.

Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

5. China's Resilience as a Manufacturing Hub:

• Despite some shifts in supply chains, China is expected to remain a key manufacturing hub due to its solid supply network and capabilities.

• Certain industries, like the semiconductor sector, may face challenges due to geopolitical restrictions, while others, such as lithium-ion batteries and new energy vehicles, will likely continue to thrive.

6. Investor Caution and Opportunities:

• Geopolitical risks have made foreign investors cautious about investing in China, leading to reduced foreign interest in Chinese ports.

• Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa present attractive investment opportunities, with Vietnam standing out as a key player in the "reglobalization" process.

• Investment opportunities are arising in ports and logistics in these regions, attracting interest from companies like MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company and PSA International.

7. Derisking Rather than Decoupling:

• The world economy's reconfiguration requires a derisking approach, as a full-scale decoupling from China is not feasible.

• Businesses are adopting a "segmented or clustered relocation" strategy, relocating certain operations or industries based on various factors.

In conclusion, the shifting supply chains and trade flows are driven by a combination of short-term disruptions and long-term strategic considerations. While China remains a crucial manufacturing hub, other regions are gaining significance, leading to new investment opportunities in diverse markets. The key to navigating this landscape is adopting a cautious but strategic approach to derisk supply chains and explore emerging markets.

Breaking the price cap

A summary of a recent post by the Tankers Research and Consultancy department Poten and Partners

Are owners leaving the Russian crude export trade?

1. G7 Crude Oil Price Cap: In December 2022, the G7 introduced a crude oil price cap of $60/barrel on Russian oil exports as a punishment for their invasion of Ukraine. The cap limited the involvement of marine service providers from G7 and EU countries in the Russian crude oil trade.

2. Western Owners Avoiding Russian Far East Trade: Since the price cap was set, oil prices in the Russian Far East have consistently exceeded $60/barrel. This led western owners to mostly avoid this trade, as they were restricted by the price cap.

3. Continued Trade in Western Ports: The price of Urals, the benchmark Russian crude mostly shipped from the Baltic and the Black Sea, remained mostly below the price cap, allowing some Western shipping companies (especially private Greek Aframax and Suezmax owners) to continue moving Russian barrels.

   

4. Changing Trade Flows: Russian trade flows shifted as Western countries and companies stopped buying Russian crude. Russia increased exports to India, China, and Turkey, boosting demand for Aframaxes and Suezmaxes due to the limitations on Russian ports for VLCCs.

   

5. Concentration of Shipowners: The Russian crude export trade from Western ports involved over 100 shipowners, but the business was highly concentrated. The top 10 owners accounted for over 50% of all voyages, while the rest did only a few each.

6. Reduction in Exports: Over the last month, Russia's exports from Western ports dropped by 630,000 b/d due to production cuts announced by the Russian government and coinciding with unilateral production reductions from Saudi Arabia. This has resulted in higher oil prices above the price cap, making Russian oil less competitive in China and India.

7. Impact on Shipowners: The reduction in exports may lead to lower employment opportunities for shipowners. Some Greek-owned vessels previously involved in the Russian trade are now seeking alternative employment, but it's unclear if this is due to fewer Russian cargoes available or concerns about breaching sanctions.

8. Limited Options for "Dark Fleet": The "dark fleet" engaged in Russian trades has limited options, with Russia, Iran, and Venezuela being the main destinations due to sanctions and restrictions. Western owners, on the other hand, can explore alternative markets.

The full article is available on request

Dawn-to-dusk imagery collection reveals rapid pace of construction for China’s second off-shore strategic naval port

A post by BlackSky

HERNDON, Va. (July 24, 2023) — BlackSky released a ten-image collection captured over Ream, Cambodia, showing the rapid pace of development of a large Chinese military naval station from August 2021 until July 2023. The high-resolution, electro-optical images are part of a collection of more than 520 images captured from October 2019 until now and contains time-diverse imagery taken as early as 8 a.m., and as late as 7:58 p.m., Indochina Time.

“BlackSky’s unique ability to capture and quickly deliver large volumes of dawn-to-dusk, time-diverse imagery increases transparency into strategic military and economic activities that otherwise would have gone unnoticed,” said Brian E. O’Toole, BlackSky CEO. “Our commercial high-frequency monitoring satellite constellation and AI-driven tasking and analytics platform gives our customers the on-demand ability to observe critical change over time.

Source: BlackSky

“The speed of development at the Ream base makes it difficult to deny the intentional velocity behind China’s overseas basing initiatives,” said Craig Singleton, China Program deputy director and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Cambodia’s receptivity to hosting China’s second overseas naval port increases Beijing’s strategic ability to project military power into the Indian Ocean.”

“There is a near-exact similarity between an angled deep-water pier located on the western shore of the Ream base and another military pier at the People’s Liberation Army Support Base in Djibouti. Both main piers are 363 meters long and large enough to support any ship in China’s naval arsenal, including the new 300-meter-long Type 003 Fujian aircraft carrier,” Singleton said.

Third-party analysts have also observed the development of a thirty-eight thousand square meter artificial peninsula on the southern shore of the base and many architecturally distinct Cambodian and Chinese military buildings, including an alleged headquarters facility, barracks and fuel storage areas.

BlackSky’s high-resolution constellation can capture imagery on an hourly basis up to 15 times per day. This unique ability to gather images from dawn until dusk is possible because BlackSky’s constellation flies predominantly in inclined orbits, horizontally oriented around the equator. Traditional satellite imagery providers are limited to capturing images between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. because they fly in sun synchronous polar orbits.

The original high resolution, ten-image collection is available upon request.

Russian Crude Market Update

A post by Vortexa

Northern Sea Route currently in use for voyages Baltic-to-China could be a viable option if ice class tonnage available

Two Russian-controlled Aframaxes are currently in transit to China via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) after loading Urals in Russia.

According to Vortexa sea surface temperature data, the vessels have transited towards warmer patches (darker blue) where there is less ice.

PRIMORSKY PROSPECT & NS ARCTIC voyage trail from Vortexa live map screen with sea surface temperature, 31 Jul 2023

Before this voyage, both vessels have lifted Urals post-ban.

• PRIMORSKY PROSPECT lifted Urals from Russia four times, and all cargoes have ultimately ended up in India (3 liftings were discharged via Kalamata STS).

• NS ARCTIC lifted Urals from Russia twice, transiting directly Primorsk-to-China

Currently it is more economical to send crude to Asia via the Black Sea instead of the Baltic, but there is limited capacity for redirecting volumes.

• Additionally, climate change and the significant reduction in ice in the Arctic makes the NSR to China more viable and could see activity on the route increase.

• However, the NSR is limited by ice class tonnage availability

Vortexa launch new Market innovation series

Welcome to Vortexa Innovation Series 2023!

🚢 Embark on a voyage through the innovations shaping the future of the energy markets! 🚢

📅 Save the Date:

🇬🇧 London, September 14

🇺🇸 NYC, September 20

🇺🇸 Houston, September 21

🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi, October 3

🇸🇬 Singapore, October 12

🔋 Join us for an immersive event, where we'll uncover the latest trends, breakthrough technologies and solutions shaping the energy industry.

📚 Gain invaluable insights from industry experts.

🤝 Network with professionals and energy enthusiasts.

⚡Gain competitive advantage by equipping yourself with the tools and insights needed to stay ahead in the rapidly evolving energy markets.

Secure your spot now for Vortexa Innovation Series 2023! Registration is open at https://bit.ly/3rTQnJR

Tracking iron ore: focus on supply from Western Australia

A post by Maritrace 

Bulk cargo carriers at Port Walcott, Western Australia, 31 July 2023. Source: MariTrace.

As the sun rises on the second half of 2023, global inflation appears to be easing, though it may be too soon to predict when national economies can expect to experience real recovery from the long-run effects of the pandemic and war in Ukraine. Commodity movements are indicators for the recovery: among them, iron ore is critical for infrastructure development, particularly in Asia. Globally, the supply of iron ore was constrained in the first quarter of 2023 by adverse weather conditions in Brazil in January, elevated export tariffs in India and decreased exports from Ukraine during 2022. Australia – the world’s second largest supplier of seaborne iron ore after Brazil – supplied approximately 880 million tonnes in 2022, mostly to China. Transit times of approximately 12 days (compared with 45 from Brazil), make Australia an attractive supplier for importers of iron ore on China’s eastern coast. Illustrative of the importance of continuous stable supply, Australia’s iron ore was not among the commodities targeted by China’s trade restrictions that affected other sectors in the three years from 2020 to 2022.

MariTrace tracked iron ore shipments by Rio Tinto from ports in Western Australia, to within 1 % of Rio Tinto’s reported figures for H1 2023. Source: MariTrace.

Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian metals and mining company, is the world’s second-largest producer of iron ore, extracting and shipping five iron ore products from 16 mines in Western Australia. In March 2023 Rio Tinto’s share of iron ore shipments from Western Australia achieved a three-month high, largely due to a prolonged spell of dry weather inland. Iron ore shipments by Rio Tinto were approximately 163 million tonnes in H1 2023 (compared with 154.3 m tonnes in the same period for 2022), of which 71.3 m tonnes were shipped from the Port of Dampier (approximately a 10% YoY increase) and 91.8 m tonnes at Port Walcott.

Iron ore prices are expected to average around US$100 / tonne throughout 2023, due in part to subdued demand for steel and expectations around how rapidly China’s economy can recover to ‘business as usual’. Analysts seeking finer granularity in estimating prices (and understanding the factors that may threaten price stability) must navigate a host of other factors: in the case of iron ore, onshore logistics issues, weather conditions and incidents at mining operations, seaborne iron ore trade can also be affected by port maintenance issues and delays, adverse weather conditions in the major shipping lanes connecting Australia with Asia, availability of port operations staff and variations in the capesize index. China’s iron ore stockpiles typically decrease after March each year as construction work in China picks up again following the winter period: in February 2023 analysts anticipated that the rate and pace of new construction in China may increase through 2023, as China continues to recover from post-pandemic restrictions. Estimating these inventories and stockpiles requires accurate insight into actual iron ore shipment volumes: MariTrace clients and subscribers can access near real-time data for iron ore shipments - in some cases, well ahead of industry reports.

The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch Ocean Freight Visibility initiative

The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch a joint initiative to support Freight Forwarders and Logistics companies to access leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions 💡

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch a joint initiative to support Freight…

The Loadstar x Maritime Data launch a joint initiative to support Freight Forwarders and Logistics companies to access leading Ocean Freight Visibility…

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7091724565889851393

Maritime Data and The Loadstar have teamed up to launch a joint initiative supporting Freight Forwarders and Logistics companies in accessing leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions.

As part of this collaboration, three leading suppliers - GateHouse Maritime, Gnosis Freight, and SeaVantage - are offering exclusive 30-day trial periods.

In the past year, the number of suppliers, features, and benefits in this field has grown exponentially. The goal of this initiative is to provide readers of The Loadstar with a diverse selection of tools, enabling them to understand the potential advantages of each solution and its data.

These Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions aim to provide real-time insights into cargo location, status, and predictive information, empowering logistics professionals to proactively manage disruptions and optimize supply chain operations.

Previously, large multinational businesses enjoyed the benefits of such technologies, automating labor-intensive processes and enhancing customer-facing products. Now, our partners have made these powerful and affordable solutions accessible to Supply Chain companies of all sizes, allowing them to leverage big data and analytics to evolve their businesses.

If you haven't already subscribed to The Loadstar's free-to-read Newsletter, join over 22,500 Supply Chain professionals today: https://theloadstar.com/registration/

For more information on this initiative and how to access a 30-day free trial of the three leading Ocean Freight Visibility Solutions, visit our dedicated landing page: https://www.maritimedata.ai/visibility-solutions/explore-ocean-visibility-solutions

Whenever you’re ready, there are 2 ways we can help:

1. Submit your free inquiry (2 min>)

Tell us about your data and analytics requirements and let Maritime Data handle the rest

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2. Book a call with the team

Understand what services are available and how they could support your business

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Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to help solve their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and market insights produced by partners in the MDAI network.

In this week’s edition:

📣 What’s new!?

• Spire launches AIS position validation solution

💡 Insight

Risk on the Rise: Navigating the 11th Sanctions Package

What is driving the changes in demand in Dry Cargo?

• How is that affecting new ship orders?

• What impact could this have on shipping?

📊 A Poll

The most common challenges with evaluating Big Data in maritime

Spire launches AIS position validation solution

What is it?

AIS Position Validation is an advanced RF signal-based vessel detection and tracking to validate vessels’ positions based on the real time coverage offered by the Spire constellation.

The solution independently calculates a vessel’s location at the time of the AIS transmission (even if AIS messages do not include valid GPS data).

This can be compared to the reported position contained within the AIS messages received from a vessel.

How does it work?

Spire is now processing other signals received as a part of AIS message known as Doppler Frequency Shift.

Providing they receive enough of these signals at a high enough frequency, this data can become a reliable indicator of a vessels position.

They are currently processing data for between 15-20% of the world fleet.

Approx. 80% validated calculated positions lie within ~40 nm from their AIS reported positions.

How can this be used?

The use cases that come to mind are Maritime Compliance & Maritime Domain awareness.

If you’re a previous reader of this newsletter, you’ll know we’ve been talking about the rising issues related to “Dark Shipping” or “Deceptive Shipping Practices” for some time.

By having an alternative source of vessel tracking data to AIS and one that cannot be manually interfered with, users may be able to analyse the deltas between the two feeds and more easily identify spoofing.

At a minimum, we see this as a potentially great complementary feed to add to existing dark vessel detection methods.

How is it delivered?

2 delivery methods

• Summary view

Provides the latest vessel position, static and voyage information associated with given target (MMSI), and summary information, i.e., latest validated and positional anomaly events, and associated counts and timestamps.

• Detailed view

Provides full information on detected events for target (MMSI), i.e., event type, associated reported and estimated positions, and relative distances in kilometers between estimated and reported positions.

Risk on the Rise: Navigating the 11th Sanctions Package

Windward produced a fantastic webinar whereby their pannel of experts discussed the implications of the latest sanctions, how stakeholders in the maritime industry can move from policy to practice, and more.

Speakers:

• Olga Dimitrescu, Head of Engagement at OFSI, HM Treasury

• Eva Monard, International Trade Partner at Steptoe & Johnson

• Simon Ring, Senior Commercial Director, Windward

• Dror Salzman, Product Manager, Windward

Our highlights:

This new package is a game changer in the sense this is the first time we’ve seen detailed prescriptive guidance with wide ranging cause and effect, bringing in more actors and stakeholders in the maritime ecosystem.

The 11th package is really about fighting the circumvention of what is already in place.

This behavior is clear by looking at trade statistics and the rise in STS and AIS spoofing.

🇷🇺 Are Sanctions really working to curtail exports to Russia?

Demonstrated by this post from a previous issue of the Newsletter

www.linkedin.com/posts/rory-proud-04a74975_are-sanctions-really-working-to-curtail-activity-7082009914583212034-QzLu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

90k port calls last year in the EU and 14% were made by Russia affiliated vessels.

In the last 2 years there have been 30k dark activities related to sanctions evasions.

In Q2 there was a 75% increase in dark activities by tanker vessels following a port call in Russia and a 140% increase in dark activities in the Black Sea.

880,000 signal losses and only 0.8% were related to sanction evasions.

Deceptive Shipping Practices are changing.

The amount of events are growing as well as the type of manipulation event is changing

What does it mean for stakeholders in the maritime industry?

A thorough due diligence process is required primarily to avoid violations but also to demonstrate to the regulators that you took all reasonable steps in the event of a breach.

The EU commission will be working with all member states to support with their own resources + facilitate the exchange of information between ports.

New export restrictions will have a severe impact on the supply chain.

What is driving the changes in demand in Dry Cargo?

A post by Tradeviews, a specialist research and advisory business focused on the analysis of Maritime Trade Data.

Note: These bullet points summarize the forecasts and developments mentioned in the original report, available on request.

Steel Industry:

• OECD estimates steelmaking capacity additions in 2023-2025 to total 166 million tonnes, leading to increased demand for 196 million tonnes of iron ore, 94 million tonnes of coking coal, and 58 million tonnes of scrap.

• Capacity additions are concentrated in Asia, with blast furnaces accounting for 55%.

• Concerns exist about excess capacity being pushed into world markets due to capacity additions in regions with stagnant or declining demand.

• Europe is gradually replacing blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces and DRI projects alongside.

Power Coal:

• China's raw coal production in May 2023 increased by 4.2% YoY.

• India's domestic coal output in May 2023 rose by 7.1% YoY.

• India extends the timeline for power plants operating on imported coal to run at full capacity until the end of September due to a severe heatwave.

• Italy may shut down its coal-fired power stations in 2024 if gas prices remain low.

• Philippines' Semirara Mining diversifies coal exports to Japan and reduces reliance on China.

Aluminium Industry:

• Global primary aluminium production in May 2023 increased by 0.6% YoY, with China accounting for 59%.

• Global alumina production rose to 11.918 million tonnes in May, up 1% MoM in terms of average daily output.

• Rio Tinto plans to expand its "low-carbon" aluminium smelter in Quebec, Canada.

Agribulk:

• USDA forecasts minor adjustments to 2022/23 export trade forecasts for wheat and coarse grains.

• Weather patterns, including El Nino, threaten agricultural producers across Asia.

• Australia's winter crop production is predicted to decline due to the El Nino weather pattern.

• EU to phase out temporary restrictions on imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seed.

• Flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine affects agriculture.

Fertilisers:

• Angola's Cabinda Phosphate Fertiliser Plant will be constructed, fed by output from the Cacata Phosphate mine.

• NeuRizer advances plans for a 1 million tonne/year urea plant in South Australia.

• Bangladesh imports 180,000 tons of muriate of potash from Russia.

• OCP plans to invest $7 billion in an ammonia plant in Morocco using green hydrogen.

• Koch Fertilizer revamps its Fort Dodge plant in Iowa, increasing ammonia production capacity.

Forest Products:

• Australia resumes softwood log exports to China after the ban due to bark beetle infestation.

• Canada experiences a severe spring wildfire season, impacting sawmills and raising lumber prices.

• German sawmill industry reports poor business conditions and significant production reductions.

• New Zealand strengthens forestry cooperation with China.

• Viet Nam's wood exports decline due to falling demand in major markets.

Cement Industry:

• Argentina's cement market contracts by 1.5% YoY in May 2023.

• Brazil's cement market grows by 1.2% YoY in May 2023.

• New cement plants commence production in Cambodia, Laos, and Ethiopia.

• CMS Cement plans to expand clinker capacity in Malaysia.

• BUA Cement secures loans to construct two new cement plants in Nigeria.

• Heidelberg inaugurates a new cement plant in Indiana, USA.

How might this affect the Ship Building Markets?

We go back to a previous post by Christopher Palsson of Maritime-Insight

The relatively low dry bulk carrier fleet age gives a continued modest dwt removal forecast for 2023-2027. In dwt the total will be 44M dwt, plus 10%, whereof 14M dwt in 2027 alone. Given the many old smaller ships in the fleet the increase will be higher in numbers. Looking further ahead, all the ships delivered in 2009 and onwards will be on schedule for removals and thus the total removals will increase dramatically towards the end of this decade. This will impact the ordering of new ships.

Dry Bulker Fleet development, million DWT

In 2018-2022 the dry bulker fleet grew by 3.3% yearly measured in dwt capacity. The forecast for fleet growth in 2023-2027 stands at 3.2% yearly. The fastest growing segment will be the 60’-100’dwt segment (largely Ultramax, Panamax & Kamsarmax) with a yearly growth of 4.7% in average.

You can view the full post here:

https://maritimedata.beehiiv.com/p/maritime-data-newsletter-3

What impact could this have on Shipping?

1. Dry Bulk Shipping: The increased demand for iron ore, coking coal, and scrap in the steel industry may lead to higher volumes of dry bulk shipments 📈

2. Shift in Trade Patterns: The diversification of coking coal sourcing by India or resumption of log exports from Australia to China, could result in shifts in trade patterns 🔄

3. Regional Impact: Capacity additions in the steel industry, particularly in Asia, may increase intra-regional trade within Asia. This could impact the demand for vessels in other regions 🌍

4. Environmental Considerations: The focus on decarbonization and green initiatives in the steel and cement industries may drive the demand for cleaner shipping options, such as vessels powered by alternative fuels ♻️

5. Weather-Related Challenges: Weather patterns, such as the El Nino climate pattern, may impact agricultural production and subsequently affect the shipping of agribulk commodities 🌦️

Note: This is commentary by Maritimedata.ai 

The 3 most common challenges with evaluating big data in maritime

Probably the most common challenge we discuss with users and buyers of maritime data services is the time, effort and resource is takes to evaluate the range of available solutions, of which nowadays there are many.

From having the right people with the right skills to the cost of operational disruptions, we tried capture the 3 most common challenges we hear from the MDAI network:

1. Access to Skilled Personnel 

In an industry with an aggressive push for digitisation, competition for skills is commensurately high. Good Analysts and Data Scientists are expensive, and will often have a wide remit of responsibilities, including the evaluation of existing and new datasets.

Some Maritime Data such as Vessel and Ownership Data require deep industry expertise to understand the important nuances in a suppliers approach, as contrary to popular belief, we still haven’t agreed what ship is what.

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: Who else has been on a Floating Production...Ferry 🛢 ⛴ ?

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7049330256138104833/

If a business doesn’t have the sort of skilled personnel needed to conduct thorough and extensive evaluations, purchasing decisions are tough to make and the risk of a misplaced investment increases.

In our experience, this creates a barrier to entry for small/medium size organisations looking to utilize big data and analytics.

2. Opportunity Costs

Should a buyer have access to skilled personnel then the question becomes the cost of redeploying them.

If all of your analytical resources are tied up on important projects, it’s likely that the assessment of your incumbent service/solution get’s delayed until the following year and your existing contract(s) renewed. Understandable.

The opportunity costs then extend to those incurred by not optimizing your solution providers.

3. Processing power 

Talent is not the only factor in evaluating data services. A company’s access to compute power and availability also has a huge impact on a businesses ability to conduct thorough testing.

Maritime Data can be big and tricky.

Some vessel tracking data providers produce north of 300m positions a day and can require an enormous amount of work to process prior to being ready for compassion.

Organisations without the either take longer to assess, or choose to narrow down the shortlist before making a true assessment of the data quality.  

📊 The Poll

So what’s the solution?

We’re still working on that, but maybe something like this?

The general idea being that a tool designed to analyse the bigger and trickier datasets, allowing users to compare and contrast services by different criteria could be useful?

If that sounds interesting and something you would like to be involved in at an early stage, let us know by clicking the link below to our Beta Program:

DataCutter x Maritime Data - Data Eval tool

Register your interest to receive more information and/or join the Beta User Group.

form.jotform.com/231436234026043

If you’re interested in learning more about the solutions mentioned in this newsletter or other data and analytics products, there are 2 ways we can help:

Book a 15 min scoping call

Speak with the team to discuss your requirement or just get a better understanding of the maritime data and analytics landscape.

meetings-eu1.hubspot.com/rory-proud

Submit your requirement (<2 mins)

Detail what your requirement and Maritime Data will engage the most relevant suppliers on your behalf.

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You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai 

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and furnish you with market insights derived from data analysis.

TL;DR

• Are Sanctions Really Working to Curtail Exports to Russia ? An Insider's Look Using Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights 🇷🇺

• The Dark Fleet, with Michelle Wiese Bockmann of Lloyd's List

• Maritime Data launches Beta Access Program 💥

• 3 ways the shipping industry is adopting predictive analytics

• Oil's Resilience: Oil Demand slows but maintains dominance amidst rising electric vehicles and renewables 🛢️

Are Sanctions Really Working to Curtail Exports to Russia? An Insider's Look Using D&B Shipping Insights

A post by Dun and Bradstreet

The D&B team read an article recently published in the Wall Street Journal titled: “How Sanctioned Western Goods Are Still Flowing Into Russia.” The Dun & Bradstreet Analytics team dove into the D&B Shipping Insights database which spans over one billion shipments since 2014. Here is what we found:

As the world engages Russia in response to the ongoing tensions with Ukraine, its former territory, the implementation of economic sanctions has been a widely debated topic. Many want to believe sanctions work through invoking the force of law. The result of these political actions would lead to countries reducing their engagement with the Russian economy. If the sanctions had the desired impact, shipments to Russia would decrease.

The good news is that exploring the D&B Shipping Insights archives showed a truly clear picture. Sanctions resulted in shipments declining from over 360,000 unique shipments from one hundred distinct exporting countries in 2021 to less than a projected 35,000 shipments from ten countries in 2023.

This analysis indicates that sanctions do work to isolate a country as a punitive response to undesirable actions.

To further validate the conclusion that sanctions are extremely efficient in reducing the imports to an economy by up to 90%, the team looked at the shipment trends globally starting with 2014 shipments.

The retrospective of global ocean exports revealed that container-based shipments enjoyed a steady year over year increase from 2014 to 2021. During 2021, shipments spiked in line with increased consumer spending on physical products as service and travel options were curtailed as uses of discretionary spending as the world responded to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Starting in 2021 and projected through the remainder of 2023, it is predicted that global shipments will decline by over 30% from the 2021 peak. The fact that exports to Russia declined by more than 90% in the same period, reenforced the hypothesis that sanctions are an effective deterrent.

As data scientists, the team attempted to falsify their conclusion.

The D&B Analytics group brought in a peer committee and returned one more time to the assumptions in the conclusion, Russia’s receipt of shipments is down so the sanctions work. Could there be another scenario where Russia sees a decline in shipments, but sanctions are still ineffective?

The final review explored by the team explored the patterns of imports and exports building from a regional lens. Delving deeper into the numbers reveals a secret world of economic maneuverings and uncertainties.

The challenge for the D&B analytics team is that with the continued success of global corporations as measured through increasing profits, the demand for the products previously sent to Russia needed to flow somewhere. Where could they have gone instead?

The starting point for this analysis began with understanding which countries were most impacted by the sanctions. This is a selective list of the most significantly impacted exporting countries shows a strong effect of the sanctions on the movement of goods to Russia directly.

But does this mean that sanctions worked? Zooming out to the region, the team discovered an interesting reality. There are some winners in global imports. The former Soviet states showed a split result. One group of countries shows a robust growth of more than 20% increase in imports over the past two years.

Taken as an absolute value, a 20% increase over a twenty-four-month window is not immediately a sign of growth. Placed in the context of a global decline in imports and exports for the same period of 30% or more, it raises some questions.

Returning to the WSJ proposal, the D&B team took a broader lens. Rather than looking at shipments directly to Russia, what if there were intermediary countries that were not part of the global consensus to restrict Russia’s economy?

Additionally, using the -30% as the baseline for organic change, all former Soviet States apart from Moldova, Belarus and Turkmenistan are showing signs off an economic renaissance.

The discussion of the three countries that are excluded from the import boon, it seemed clear why these markets were excluded from the shared benefits. Moldova and Turkmenistan are facing extreme headwinds resulting from a disruption political change, ongoing monetary disruptions of exaggerated inflation and reframing of the value of their natural resources.

Belarus also makes sense to the D&B team. With the strategic relationship and geopolitical support Belarus telegraphed for Russia, the Russian shadow had a material impact on the reputation of Belarus as a free economic partner with rest of the world.

This discovery of the former Soviet states' import activity leads to a significant reduction in confidence in the proposed answer to the question: Do sanctions work?

The team feels it is too early to tell if the transition of shipments is a sign of expansion of global trading partners or more disappointing result of introducing a middle actor to act as a go between for a sanctioned entity.

The Dark Fleet, with Michelle Wiese Bockmann of Lloyd's List

The global maritime industry is facing an undercurrent of hidden challenges, brought into the limelight in Christopher Aversano’s latest episode of popular podcast, The Last Dinosaur, featuring Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior analyst for Lloyd's List Intelligence, and markets editor Lloyd's List.

In this compelling episode, they delve into the murky waters of the "dark/grey fleet," a shadowy sector of our industry that has been largely under-reported until now. Michelle's expertise illuminates the origins, development, and recent surge of the dark fleet, revealing how geopolitics, particularly Iran's evasion tactics and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have contributed to its growth.3 examples where predictive analytics is impacting shipping

Episode 45. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Sr. Editor and Analyst - Lloyd's List and Lloyds List Intelligence

Highlights:

• The "dark fleet" represents a significant portion of the international fleet, operating outside regulatory frameworks and posing numerous risks.

• Iran's evasion tactics laid the foundation for the dark fleet, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a significant surge in its size.

• A discussion of the methodology used to track the dark fleet and discusses the challenges introduced by Russia's involvement.

• Michelle elaborates on how geopolitical changes like the invasion of Ukraine have shifted global trade lanes, with an increased global distribution of Russian diesel.

• The episode concludes with a discussion on the need for diversity and better self-promotion in the maritime industry.

BETA ACCESS PROGRAM 💥 | 4 Beta Programs providing exclusive access to brand new solutions from our network of vetted partners.

For full details on all Beta Access Programs visit: https://www.maritimedata.ai/beta-access-program

BlackSky launches proof of concept, MCS to address the rise in deceptive shipping practices and support compliance and sanctions professionals with the tools to track vessels during periods of darkness.

• Multi-Source Data Integration

• Real-Time Vessel Identification and Classification

• Continuous Vessel Custody

🗓️ Deadline for Submissions: July 15th, 2023

Register your interest in receiving trial access

Marine Benchmark builds on 20+ years of marine fuel modeling experience to bring us Benchmark Carbon, a comprehensive solution that accurately tracks Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and Attained Emission Rating (AER) for all vessels in the world fleet.

• Monitoring CII & AER Rating

• Current Year CII and Year-to-Date Trend

• Future Prognosis and Filtering

🗓️ Deadline for Submissions: July 15th, 2023

Register your interest in receiving trial access

CSBL and Maritime Data are collaborating to create to a master database of the executed fixtures contributed by the 14 participating brokers.

• Dry bulk fixtures covering up to 40% of certain markets.

• 10,000 - 20,000 uploads per annum

• Historical records for backtesting

🗓️ Deadline for Submissions: July 28th, 2023

Register your interest in receiving sample data

Co-Founder of Commodity Flow launches DataCutter to help lower the techincal barriers of working with AIS and other big maritime data sets.

• Data Transformation and Enrichment

• Scalable and Robust Data Handling

• Enhanced Interpretation Capabilities

🗓️ Deadline for Submissions: July 28th, 2023

Register your interest in receiving trial access

3 ways the shipping industry is adopting predictive analytics

A post by Nexocode

Nexocode is an AI development company that specializes in developing machine learning solutions, including predictive analytics, anomaly detection, and dynamic pricing engines for the shipping and logistics industry. Apart from supporting the full life-cycle of AI product development, the Nexocode team supports clients with building robust, scalable cloud infrastructure and developing integrations with other solutions.

The maritime industry is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by the emergence of new technologies. Predictive analytics has become increasingly vital in the shipping process. The article explores the impact of predictive analytics in the maritime industry and highlights its importance as a potentially valuable tool for shipping companies.

We picked out 3 particularly interesting use cases:

For the container carriers, having access to precise forecasts on supply and demand is a priority as it conditions their financial safety and efficiency. Particularly nowadays, when the global supply chains are getting increasingly affected by the changing geopolitical situation, predictive analytics becomes a powerful weapon against business trouble.

Using socio-economic data (GDP, population, median income, employment rate, etc.) as input and pairing them with detected trends and seasonality in the time series data as well as geopolitical factors, shipping companies estimate the realistic container demand instead of relying on historical data.

For ports and shipping companies, predictive modeling is a win-win. Having accurate predictions, the carriers can reduce the number of empty containers and prepare for the increased demand with additional investments or routes. The ports, on the other hand, end up being at lower risk of congestion since the shipping companies feel safe enough to rely on just-in-time management.

Everyone – the on-land delivery companies, wholesales, and e-commerce shops, and, of course, the final customer – wants to know when and where the shipped goods will arrive. A big part of the consumers may even abandon their shopping cart if they do not get the shipping time estimation right away. Introducing predictive analysis for timing and locations is thus in everyone’s interest.

After identifying the relevant inputs (which may include such features as gross weight, route, the destination port, and so on), the model trained for time or location prediction can come up with accurate output that help the carriers plan their routes, and the ports – effectively manage the offloading process. There are quite some machine learning models that can serve that purpose. Random forest and linear regression seem to be the most popular ones with their relatively fast training.

Interested in learning more about predictive shipping solutions?

Even though dynamic pricing model isn’t favored by the customers, it’s becoming increasingly common. With so many dynamically changing factors influencing the final cost of the shipping, the dynamic pricing models save the shipment carriers from operational inefficiency. In such competitive times, they cannot just preventively overcharge, and charging too little compromises their financial safety.

How dynamic pricing strategy works? The model estimates how changing variables impact the price and possible demand for profit maximization.

With dynamic pricing, shipping companies can adjust to the demand-supply dynamic. Such models estimate the cost of the shipping service in real-time, updating the prices at least a few times per day. For example, when the cost of oil suddenly peaks – what has happened a few times in recent years – the model adjusts the estimation, preventing the customers from ordering service at an irrelevant price.

Machine learning algorithms get trained with structured and unstructured data (including the time-oriented and location-specific data) to find the correlations between prices and different variables (like route, distance, fuel cost, demand, season, etc.). This way, they learn to predict relevant prices that fuel sales while sustaining financial security and growth.

Oil's Resilience: Oil Demand slows but maintains dominance amidst rising electric vehicles and renewables

A post by Neil Atkinson

Recently, two important bodies have published interesting reports that, taken together, show that whether it is desirable or not, the world is going to be using a lot of oil for a long time to come. The International Energy Agency’s report Oil 2023 – Analysis and Forecast to 2028 takes a medium-term view and bravely concludes that global oil demand will peak in 2028 or very soon after. The IEA also suggests that there is sufficient investment in the upstream oil industry that ample supply will be available to meet demand. The UK-based Energy Institute published their Statistical Review of World Energy (formerly published by BP plc). This is a treasure-trove of fascinating data and one of the starkest numbers is that in 2022 fossil fuels contributed 82% of global primary energy consumption. \This shows extraordinary resilience compared to a share of 85% in 1973, the date when oil prices saw their first major spike and changed the whole oil picture. So much for the energy transition.

Looking at the IEA’s report, one of the striking conclusions is that oil demand will continue to rise through to 2028 reaching 105.7 million barrels a day compared to an expected 102.3 mb/d for this year. OECD demand will fall back and developing countries, led by China and India, will provide all the growth However, by the latter part of the forecast period the annual rate of growth will have fallen to only 0.4 mb/d versus the stellar post-covid growth of 2.5 mb/d in 2023.

Source: International Energy Agency report “Oil 2023 - Analysis and forecast to 2028”

A factor behind the dramatic slowdown is the rise in the number of electric vehicles on the road and the continued improvements in the efficiency of internal combustion energy vehicles. According to the IEA this will lead to a peak in gasoline demand as early as 2025. If they are correct, in the period 2022-2028 nearly 8 mb/d of oil demand will have been avoided. This is a brave outlook, and my view is that rising costs for inputs into electric vehicle manufacturing are likely to restrain the pace of uptake by customers. Another noteworthy data point is that due to the ongoing popularity of working from home, in the period up to 2028 about 0.4 mb/d of oil demand will be lost each year as white-collar workers spend two or three days a week at home.

For shipping, the IEA expects that seaborne freight traffic will grow by an average of 3% per year from 2022 to 2028. Bunker fuel consumption will rise by 0.3 mb/d by 2028, reaching 4.5 mb/d. The rate of growth will be restrained by tightening efficiency standards imposed by the International Maritime Organisation. The IEA used fleet composition data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), to reach the conclusion that the average gain in fuel efficiency of global shipping could approach 10% during the period to 2028 depending on the rate of retirement of older, less-efficient vessels. Another interesting data point from the IEA report is that although marine fuel consumption will grow by 0.3 mb/d by 2028, if the IMO regulations are not fully implemented the growth could close to 0.5 mb/d.

With oil likely to remain the dominant fuel for personal vehicles, trucking, shipping, aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA’s outlook for a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of demand in just a few years from now is regarded by many as questionable. This brings us back to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy. For all the huffing and puffing about investment in clean energy, the stark reality is that the big picture for energy has changed little in fifty years. While it is possible to foresee a gradual decline in fossil fuel use in the decades to come as government policies have an impact, the reality for now is that new energy sources are an addition to the global energy picture with little in the way of actual replacement of fossil fuels. For sure, in power generation renewables are growing their share but as the Energy Institute shows, they contributed only 14.4% of global generation in 2022 and meanwhile the use of coal and natural gas in the sector both reached an all-time high.

There are of course enormous uncertainties in forecasting energy markets with little certainty where oil prices will be next week, let alone in five years’ time. The IEA deserves credit for trying to paint a picture of the oil market in 2028 and I urge anybody interested to download Oil 2023 – Analysis and Forecast to 2028 from the IEA website. It’s free!

If you’re interested in learning more about the solutions mentioned in this newsletter or other data and analytics products, there are 2 ways we can help:

Book a 15 min scoping call

Speak with the team to discuss your requirement or just get a better understanding of the maritime data and analytics landscape.

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Submit your requirement (<2 mins)

Detail what your requirement and Maritime Data will engage the most relevant suppliers on your behalf.

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Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai 

Maritimedata.ai is a digital broker that provides data and analytics solutions for the maritime ecosystem. We work as an intermediary between clients in the maritime industry and solution providers to help them find the best data-driven solutions to their business challenges.

The objective of the newsletter is to provide you with up-to-date information on the most recent advancements in space and provide you with market insights derived from data driven analysis.

TL;DR

📣 What’s new!? 🚀

• BlackSky Introduces AI-Powered Maritime Custody Service for Real-Time Vessel Tracking and Surveillance 🛰️

• Marine Benchmark launches Benchmark Carbon for accurately monitoring Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and Attained Emission Rating (AER) for all vessels in the world fleet 🌱🚢

💡 Insight 📊

• Harnessing Historical AIS data for Machine Learning 🚢 🤖📖

• What the new EU sanctions package means for maritime compliance 🇪🇺

BlackSky Introduces AI-Powered Maritime Custody Service for Real-Time Vessel Tracking and Surveillance 

Abstract: BlackSky, a leading provider of real-time geospatial intelligence, has developed the Maritime Custody Service (MCS) to address the crucial need for advanced vessel tracking and surveillance in maritime domains. The MCS utilizes a multi-source system, combining commercial radio frequency (RF) data, electro-optical (EO) imagery, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to monitor vessel movements in real-time. By leveraging data streams from the BlackSky Global satellite constellation and Spire Global Inc.'s satellite constellation, along with the Spectra AI platform, the MCS enables users to identify vessels of interest, monitor their positions, and observe their activities using commercial, unclassified sources. This article provides an overview of the MCS's design, algorithms, early prototype results, and expected improvements. 

Introduction: With the increase in maritime traffic and the associated risks of geopolitical conflicts and criminal activities at sea, there is a growing demand for real-time maritime surveillance systems. These systems play a critical role in identifying and responding to illegal activities such as smuggling, sanctions evasion, illegal fishing, marine terrorism, and disaster-related incidents. However, existing surveillance solutions have limitations in terms of capabilities, flexibility, and accuracy, hindering their ability to provide real-time intelligence for various applications. To overcome these challenges, BlackSky has developed the Maritime Custody Service (MCS), a cutting-edge AI-powered system for on-demand monitoring of vessels in the world's oceans and waterways. 

Figure 1: BlackSky Visible Imagery Showing Vessels Engaging in Open Ocean Navigation (left) and Ship-to-Ship Transfer (right)

Maritime Custody Service (MCS) Overview: The MCS combines high-frequency satellite imaging, including electro-optical (EO) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors, with accurate target acquisition, vessel trajectory prediction, and vessel identification and classification. The system utilizes data from BlackSky's satellite constellation, Spire's satellite and terrestrial receivers for RF emissions, and the Spectra AI platform for image processing and analysis. By integrating these diverse data sources, the MCS can monitor vessels in real-time as they navigate open oceans, rivers, canals, and while docked at ports. It has the capability to detect vessels of interest, track their positions, and classify them by type. 

Concept of Operations: The MCS operates in a continuous cycle to maintain custody of monitored vessels. It begins with RF-based vessel tracking and trajectory prediction using emissions data collected by Spire's Lemur satellites and terrestrial AIS sensor network. The system then identifies imaging opportunities by intersecting the probabilistic vessel trajectory forecast with the ground tracks of BlackSky's satellites. Once the imaging opportunities are determined, BlackSky's satellite constellation captures images of the targeted vessels. The collected images are processed using the Spectra AI platform, which detects and classifies vessels. If a vessel is identified in the images, its position and trajectory are updated, ensuring accurate vessel tracking. 

Figure 2: Visualization of the BlackSky Maritime Custody Service (MCS) Concept of Operations.

1. Target Geolocation via RF: Using RF emissions collected by Spire’s Lemur satellites and terrestrial AIS sensor network, the MCS identifies a vessel’s current position, speed, and direction of travel, otherwise referred to as a vessel’s heading. 

2. Predict Vessel Trajectory: The MCS then predicts the vessel’s future trajectory by analyzing position and velocity information derived from the captured RF emissions. 

   Currently, the MCS uses a simple dead-reckoning approach, in which vessel trajectories are computed assuming constant vessel speed and direction. Accordingly, the vessel trajectories consist of a simple series of straight lines. However, BlackSky has developed more advanced heteroscedastic regression models in order to anticipate the future position of ships. See the Results & Expected Improvements section for additional detail. 

3. Identify Imaging Opportunities: BlackSky identifies imaging opportunities by intersecting the probabilistic vessel trajectory forecast with the upcoming ground tracks of BlackSky’s satellites. Opportunities with the highest probability of interception are then integrated into a mission plan and uploaded to the satellites for execution. 

4. Collect Images: The BlackSky satellite constellation then collects imagery at the coordinates with the highest probability of interception. To maximize the probability of a successful capture, BlackSky can collect multiple images along the vessel’s forecasted trajectory (to compensate for variations in the vessel’s speed) or across the vessel’s forecasted trajectory (to compensate for changes in the vessel’s heading). 

    

5. Detect Vessels: Once images are collected and downlinked, BlackSky’s Spectra AI platform analyzes the collected images. BlackSky’s proprietary vessel detection model is then run to locate and classify the different types of vessels present in the images. 

The vessel detections are then cross-referenced against any available AIS information describing the target vessel to determine whether it was successfully captured in the image. 

6. Update Target Geolocation: If the target vessel is identified in the collected images, Spectra AI can then update the vessel’s position and direction of travel and refresh its MCS trajectory forecast based on this new information. This helps ensure that an accurate starting location is used when vessel trajectory forecasts are initialized.

Once all six steps above have been executed, the cycle is repeated.  

By executing this loop during a vessel’s entire journey, the MCS can be used to maintain custody of a vessel as it travels nearly anywhere on Earth. Furthermore, if a vessel’s AIS report purports to be at a particular pair of coordinates, but the vessel is not present in the collected image, it is more likely the vessel is spoofing its AIS transmission.  

Results & Expected Improvements:

Figure 3. Existing and Expected MCS Performance Improvements

The MCS prototype has shown promising results, capturing targeted vessels both while docked at ports and while deployed at sea. The initial prototype achieved a vessel capture rate of approximately 25% of the collected images. However, there is room for improvement by refining the system's algorithms. Three key improvements are highlighted: transitioning from dead reckoning to probabilistic route prediction models for better vessel position forecasting, reducing image collection latency to ensure timely capture of vessels, and implementing multi-frame, larger area image collections to increase the probability of capturing vessels within the collected scenes. 

Conclusion: BlackSky's Maritime Custody Service (MCS) represents a significant advancement in real-time vessel tracking and surveillance capabilities. By leveraging AI and multi-source data integration, the MCS provides users with a powerful tool for monitoring maritime activities and detecting illicit behavior. With ongoing algorithm improvements, including enhanced vessel position forecasting and reduced image collection latency, the MCS is expected to become an even more effective solution for commercial, military, economic, and environmental applications, contributing to the security and safety of maritime domains worldwide. 

🔎 Who do we think should be interested in MCS?

Trade Finance 🛢️

• Compliance, Sanctions and AML officers: Help ensure compliance with regulations like AML and sanctions screening.

  MCS helps monitor vessel movements and detect suspicious activities beyond the means of vessel tracking data such as AIS.

• Trade Finance Operations Manager: Oversees trade finance activities and utilizes MCS for monitoring vessel movements and verifying trade documents.

Marine Insurers 🚢

• Hull Underwriters: MCS supports underwriters to understand the activity of vessels/owners in the event there are gaps in their AIS coverage to support thorough risk assessments and policy issuance.

• Claims Managers Investigates insurance claims using enhanced vessel tracking and historical data provided by MCS.

Commodity Traders 🌾 🛢️ 🪨

• Risk Managers: Manages trading risks by monitoring shipments, identifying potential delays, and proactively mitigating risks using enhanced data from MCS.

• Compliance Officers: Ensures trade compliance by monitoring vessel movements, identifying potential violations, and enforcing compliance measures with the support of MCS.

✉️ We're inviting readers of our newsletter to participate in our beta user access program for testing the Maritime Custody Service (MCS).

Sign up through the form below: Limited spots available. Join us today and contribute to the advancement of real-time vessel tracking and surveillance and help combat illicit shipping and sanctions evasion practices.

🗓️ Deadline for submissions: July 15th 2023

BlackSky: Maritime Custody Service (MCS)

Click the link to register your interest in Beta Access to the next generation of vessel tracking and surveillance solutions 🛰️

form.jotform.com/231622728575360

Introducing Benchmark Carbon: Join the Beta Access Test for Advanced Maritime Carbon monitoring

A new product offering from www.marinebenchmark.com

Introduction: Marine Benchmark combines first-class shipping data, cutting-edge technology and a lifetime of experience in shipping to create innovative, user-friendly analysis tools for the marine industry.

The Marine Benchmark fuel calculation model has been a reliable model and under development over more than 20 years. Marine Benchmark and its founders have been very early movers in calculating fuel and environmental KPIs.

The original version was developed as early as year 2000 in a European Union project, “Airborne emissions from shipping in EU waters”. The project was subsequently, over a number of years, responsible for calculating the EU related shipping emissions and reported to the EU commission.

Benchmark Carbon offers a comprehensive solution for accurately monitoring Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and Attained Emission Rating (AER) for all vessels in the world fleet. It provides historical data, current year-to-date information, and a 10-year future prognosis for CII. Here's how Benchmark Carbon solves the mentioned problems and user cases:

1. Monitoring CII and AER Rating: Benchmark Carbon monitors and calculates accurate historic and current attained CII and CCI ratings for all vessels in the world fleet. This allows users to assess the carbon efficiency of individual ships or entire fleets.

Figure 1: CII distribution for one particular market segment in the world fleet (four vessel is on order and are missing values)

Figure 2: One selected vessel in relation to its market segment (or any fleet selection) scattered around regulatory boundaries.

2. Current Year CII and Year-to-Date Trend: Users can access the current year's CII for any ship, providing real-time information on carbon emissions. Additionally, Benchmark Carbon offers a year-to-date trend analysis, enabling users to track the carbon performance of a vessel over time.

Figure 3: CII 2023 year to date always up to last calendar day.

3. UN Register Access and Fleet Comparison: The platform provides full access to the UN register (S&P IHS), allowing users to filter and compare different parts of the world fleet. This feature helps ship owners, shippers, and operators analyze fleets and make informed decisions based on carbon efficiency.

4. CII Future Prognosis and Filtering: Benchmark Carbon offers a future prognosis feature that predicts the CII of vessels up to 2035. Users can filter vessels based on any specific year to identify ships that meet their carbon emission requirements.

Figure 4: CII prognosis up to 2035 (In this case we assume 2 % required reduction per year after 2026, IMO regulation is decided up to and included 2026).

5. Comprehensive CII Reports: The platform allows users to generate comprehensive CII reports for any ship in the world fleet. These reports provide detailed information on carbon intensity, emissions ratings, and other relevant data, assisting customers in making informed decisions.

6. Customer Base: Benchmark Carbon caters to various stakeholders in the maritime industry, including shippers, cargo owners, operators, banks, ship owners, equipment/service suppliers, yards, and insurance companies. Each customer group benefits from the platform's unique features based on their specific needs and objectives.

7. Sensor Data Integration: Benchmark Carbon provides the option to connect sensor data, enabling users to compare their emissions data with competitors or any other defined group within the world fleet. This feature allows for benchmarking and performance analysis, aiding in identifying areas for improvement.

Overall, Benchmark Carbon offers a comprehensive solution for monitoring and analyzing carbon emissions in the maritime industry. It helps stakeholders make informed decisions, assess asset quality, compare fleets, identify business opportunities, and offer appropriate solutions based on carbon efficiency.

🔎 Who do we think should be interested in Benchmark Carbon?

Financial institutions 🏦

Ship Finance Managers: Evaluate the carbon efficiency of vessels seeking financing.

Risk Analysts: Assess environmental risk and make informed lending decisions.

Sustainability Officers: Ensure ship finance aligns with sustainability commitments.

Relationship Managers: Provide insights to clients and foster sustainable partnerships.

Compliance Officers: Ensure compliance with environmental regulations and standards.

Marine Insurers 🚢

Hull Underwriters: Assess environmental risk and determine insurance coverage and terms.

Risk Analysts: Evaluate vessel carbon footprint and calculate potential liabilities.

Chief Data Officers: Monitor environmental impact of insured fleet and align with sustainability goals.

Claims Managers: Evaluate carbon performance during incidents or damages.

Product Development Managers: Develop innovative insurance products addressing environmental risks.

🌍 Join the Future of Maritime Carbon Monitoring! 🚢🌱

Be among the first to experience the power of Benchmark Carbon, a brand new solution for monitoring carbon emissions in the maritime industry. Sign up now for our beta user access test and unlock the following exclusive benefits:

🔍 Monitor accurate historic and current CII for all vessels in the world fleet.
📈 Track the year-to-date trend and future prognosis of carbon intensity.
🌐 Access the UN register and compare fleets and individual ships.
📊 Generate comprehensive CII reports tailored to your needs.
💡 Connect your sensor data to gain deeper insights and benchmark against competitors.

🗓️ Deadline for submissions: July 6th 2023

Ready to make a significant impact on carbon emissions in the maritime industry? Sign up for our beta access test and take action with Benchmark Carbon today! 🌍🌱🚢

Marine Benchmark: Benchmark Carbon - a global solution for monitoring CII & AER

Please click the link to complete this form.

form.jotform.com/231632623810347

Harnessing Historical AIS data for Machine Learning 🚢 🤖📖

In this recent webinar by Spire.com the audience is taken on a deep dive into the world of machine learning and its applications in the maritime industry. The presenters explore machine learning as a branch of artificial intelligence that utilizes data sets and algorithms to continually improve accuracy over time. The typical components of a machine learning model, including the decision process, error function, and method optimization process, are examined to demonstrate how they work together to analyze data sets and identify patterns.

Highlights:

• Machine learning as a branch of AI for improving accuracy over time

• Components of a machine learning model: decision process, error function, and method optimization process

• Importance of historical data, focusing on AIS (automatic identification system) data in the maritime industry

• Use cases of machine learning with AIS data: predictive maintenance, route planning optimization, emissions tracking, commodity trading analysis, identifying inefficiencies in supply chains, risk assessment, fraud detection, and risk mitigation in marine insurance

• Requirements for effective use of AIS data in machine learning models

• Freightflows showcases practical utilization of AIS data for building geospatial data sets and tracking commercial activities

The webinar emphasizes the importance of historical data for training machine learning models, particularly focusing on the utilization of AIS data. AIS, known as automatic identification system, enables ships to transmit their position and other relevant information to other vessels. Spire Maritime, a prominent player in the field, collects AIS data from its own satellite constellation and third-party providers to ensure comprehensive coverage. The various use cases for machine learning with AIS data are explored, such as predictive maintenance of vessels, route planning optimization, emissions tracking, predictive analysis for commodity trading, identification of bottlenecks and inefficiencies in supply chains, as well as risk assessment, fraud detection, and risk mitigation in the marine insurance industry.

Webinar: Harnessing Historical AIS data for Machine Learning | Spire Maritime & Freightflows

Replay our webinar and learn how Historical AIS data can be used to feed Machine Learning and superpower Freightflows' maritime products.

insights.spire.com/maritime/webinar-harnessing-historical-ais-data-for-machine-learning/?utm_campaign=maritime_2023_historical_ML_AI_campaign&utm_source=Maritimedata.ai&utm_medium=Email

The webinar also delves into the requirements for AIS data to be effectively used in machine learning models and highlights the role of Spire in this process. Spire boasts over 10 years of historical AIS data and continuous improvement in coverage. They offer the data in different formats, including raw NMEA format, decoded format, and combined post-processed format. Additionally, Spire provides flexible data delivery options and dedicated support teams to assist customers with their specific needs.

To provide a practical demonstration of AIS data utilization, Freightflows, a predictive analytics company specializing in global trade, shares insights. They explain how they leverage AIS data to build a comprehensive geospatial data set and create dynamic polygons representing port and berth areas. By analyzing ship movements and clustering the data, Freightflows accurately tracks commercial activities and provides valuable insights to its customers.

Overall, the webinar replay offers a comprehensive and informative exploration of machine learning, AIS data, and their applications in the maritime industry. It caters to a wide range of interests, including predictive maintenance, route optimization, emissions tracking, commodity trading, supply chain optimization, and marine insurance. Attendees have the opportunity to gain valuable insights and stay ahead in the rapidly evolving world of maritime technology.

What does the new EU sanctions package means for maritime compliance 🇪🇺

In a recent post by Ami Daniel, Ceo of Windward.ai, he explained why he thought the proposed 11th package of EU sanctions was a game changer for maritime compliance, and we agree.

Ami Daniel on LinkedIn: Walking the Tightrope: Will Recent Events Strengthen the 11th EU Sanctions…

The upcoming sanctions package by the EU is a game changer . 3 reasons why: 1. Sanctions will become a criminal offense. 2. The bar for banning vessels from…

www.linkedin.com/posts/amidaniel_walking-the-tightrope-will-recent-events-activity-7073684264713621504-5q_C?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

This follows the 20+ year trend of the United States increasing their use of sanctions as a foreign policy tool and/or military responses.

Rory Proud on LinkedIn: Since 2001 there has been a 933% increase in the enforcement of economic…

Since 2001 there has been a 933% increase in the enforcement of economic sanctions by the United States 🇺🇸 Have they proven their effectiveness as a tool…

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7063936908032106497/?originTrackingId=4CdECnnwQIOrS%2BI9b%2FnG0A%3D%3D

The number of US government sanction designations grew from 912 to 9,421, skyrocketing by 933%, in the two decades from 2000 to 2021, according to economist Timothy Taylor’s review of OFAC data.

🔎 ⚠️ So how might this effect Maritime Compliance teams?

Increased complexity 😓🔍: The proposed sanctions package will introduce additional measures related to ship-to-ship transfers and vessels going dark. Maritime compliance teams will face the challenge of detecting and preventing illicit activities without sophisticated technology to automatically identify such behavior in real-time.

Compliance technology demand 🚢💻: The need for advanced compliance technology will surge as maritime organizations strive to meet the requirements of the sanctions package. Compliance teams will require robust systems capable of detecting dark activity and complex GNSS manipulations, minimizing false positives, and ensuring adherence to sanctions.

Criminalization of sanctions ⚖️🚢: As sanctions in Europe become increasingly criminalized, maritime compliance teams may face the responsibility of monitoring and enforcing sanctions alongside law enforcement and customs agencies. They will continue to need to identify violations and prevent designations, balancing the need for robust enforcement with the avoidance of significant economic disruptions.

Enhanced tracking and understanding 📈🌍: The sanctions package will expand the list of prohibited items for export to Russia, necessitating improved vessel tracking and a deeper understanding of transshipments.

Whenever you’re ready, there are 2 ways we can help:

Book a 15 min scoping call

Speak with the team to discuss your requirement or just get a better understanding of the maritime data and analytics landscape.

meetings-eu1.hubspot.com/rory-proud

Submit your requirement (2 mins)

Detail your requirement and Maritime Data will engage the most relevant suppliers on your behalf. Only your industry, job title and company size will be shared with suppliers, protecting your identity until you are ready connect.

form.jotform.com/222902418864055

You might be receiving this email because we believe that the content of our newsletter may be of interest to you based on your profession. However, if we have made an incorrect assumption, we apologize for any inconvenience caused. If you do not wish to receive future publications, please follow the instructions below to unsubscribe.

Thank you for your time.

Best regards,

Rory Proud

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai