Hey {{ first name | friends}} - The city is electric right now. Knicks, World Cup, literal lightning storms.

🌎 The Big Picture

Some good, some bad, some warnings. All stuff to prepare you and make life easier.

Paychecks aren't keeping up with the cost of living, and the war is why.

The Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index climbed 4.2% over the past year through May, the worst inflation we've seen since early 2023. And it's almost all about energy: gas prices have shot up 40.5% from a year ago, and energy costs alone drove more than 60% of last month's price increase. The Middle East conflict has thrown global oil supplies into chaos, and those higher fuel costs are showing up everywhere, with tomatoes up 32%, lettuce up 25%, and coffee up 17.5%. Grocery bills grew a little more slowly in May than April, but they're still going up. Since the war began, the overall cost of living has risen more than three times faster than what's considered normal.

Wages just aren't keeping up. After adjusting for inflation, paychecks have lost 0.7% of their purchasing power over the past year. That's a real pay cut for most workers.

Here's the silver lining: the damage is still contained, for now. Strip out food and energy, and core prices rose just 0.2% for the month. That tells us the energy shock hasn't spread widely through the economy yet. New vehicles, furniture, and prescription drugs got cheaper in May, which hints that tariff-driven price pressures might be easing up.

Still, with prices rising this fast, investors now think it's more likely that interest rates go up than down by year's end. That means don't expect it to get cheaper to borrow money anytime soon - mortgages, credit cards, car leases, business loans. It might actually get more expensive.

Social Security's retirement fund is running out of money faster than anyone expected.

The Social Security Administration says the retirement trust reserve is now projected to run dry in late 2032, three months sooner than they thought just a year ago. Every paycheck you get, Social Security taxes come out, and that money goes straight to 70 million retirees, disabled people, and survivors. For years, those tax collections brought in more than the program paid out, building up a healthy reserve. But now there are way more retirees, payouts exceed incoming taxes, and the program is eating through that reserve to cover the gap.

The backup funds are draining faster every year. Falling birth rates, lower net immigration, and recent federal tax cuts have all shrunk the tax revenue flowing into Social Security, forcing deeper and deeper draws on the reserve. If that reserve hits zero, incoming taxes would only cover 78% of scheduled benefits, meaning a 22% cut to monthly checks. For roughly one in four retirees, those checks are their only income. More than 60% rely on them for at least half. Medicare's hospital fund is in a similar spot, projected to cover only 89% of inpatient costs after mid-2033. The disability trust fund is fine through at least 2100, but retirees are in real trouble if Congress doesn't step up.

Congress still has time, but not forever. The fixes are raising payroll taxes, trimming benefits, tightening eligibility, or pulling in other federal revenue. None of those are politically fun, so don't count on an easy solution. Anyone in or approaching retirement can't afford to tune this out.

The housing market had its strongest month in a while this May, but don't get too comfortable.

The National Association of Realtors reported 4.17 million existing home sales, up 3.2% from both April and a year ago. That burst of activity traces back to April, when mortgage rates briefly dipped after spiking in March following the U.S.-Iran conflict. Buyers who'd been sitting on the sidelines jumped at the opening.

Prices are still climbing, just not as fast. The national median sale price hit a record $429,300, but that 1.3% gain is pretty modest compared to recent years, and wages are finally starting to close the gap. Affordability improved the most in the West, up 11%, and the South, up 8.4%. First-time buyers made up 35% of May sales, up from 30% a year ago, though economists say 40% is the benchmark for a truly healthy market. Cash buyers accounted for 25% of sales, a touch lower than last year.

Things could cool off fast. Zillow's data shows new listings are down 4.1% from a year ago, and they're warning that inventory could peak in June, earlier than usual, which would shrink choices and slow sales in the back half of the year. If you're buying, there's more supply than a year ago, but competition is creeping back. If you're selling, prices are still near record highs, just know the window for peak activity may be closing sooner than you'd like.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest stock market debut in history, beginning trading on June 12.

SpaceX went public for the first time, raising $75 billion by selling shares of the company to outside investors, the largest stock market debut in history, and more than double the previous global record. Going public means anyone can now buy a piece of the rocket and satellite company, which has been privately held for over two decades. The company led by Elon Musk instantly becomes one of the largest companies on the market. At $135 per share, it entered markets at a valuation of roughly $1.8 trillion. Last year, the company earned only about $19 billion in revenue, mostly from its Starlink satellites with 10.3 million users. The AI space tech giant isn't profitable, losing nearly $5 billion in 2025, thanks to its xAI division. Demand for a piece of Elon Musk's empire was enormous: investors tried to buy more than four times the shares available, and retail investors alone submitted $100 billion in orders. SpaceX plans to expand its Starship launches and build AI data centers in space, though the company has not yet turned a profit.

OpenAI filed to go public, setting the stage for one of the largest market debuts in history.

OpenAI filed confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering, the first formal step toward going public. A confidential filing allows a company to submit its financials to regulators before making them public, giving OpenAI the option to debut as early as the fourth quarter without committing to a timeline. OpenAI says it hasn't decided on timing, noting some things are "likely easier as a private company."The timing comes with pressure. OpenAI has raised more than $180 billion and is still burning through cash to build the infrastructure its AI models require. Rival AI giant Anthropic recently surpassed OpenAI in valuation for the first time and announced plans to go public, tightening an already competitive race to market. CEO Sam Altman framed this as a third phase for OpenAI, focused on making AI abundant and affordable for everyone.

PepsiCo is now running driverless trucks commercially, the first major US consumer goods company to do so.

PepsiCo is operating 41 fully driverless trucks across Arizona, Texas, and Arkansas. The first major US consumer goods company to use autonomous trucks commercially on public roads, the fleet shuttles products between bottling plants, warehouses, and retail locations with no driver or safety observer in the cab. The partnership with autonomous trucking company Gatik began in 2022 with human safety drivers and went fully driverless in June 2025. The trucks have had no accidents on public roads and a 99% on-time delivery rate. PepsiCo expects to hire fewer drivers over time, drawing strong opposition from truck driver unions. They have lobbied several states to require a human operator in any commercial autonomous vehicle.

Apple is finally delivering a rebuilt Siri, two years after its original AI rollout fell short.

Apple unveiled Siri AI at its annual developer conference. The rebuilt assistant can tap into personal information, on-screen content, and web data, with a dedicated app and chatbot-style experience launching in beta this fall, initially unavailable in the EU and China. After concluding its AI models were far below industry standards, Apple replaced Siri's entire leadership team and rebuilt the assistant from the ground up, moving it onto a major search company's servers. For a business that has long made privacy and ownership of its core technology a selling point, that is a significant concession. Apple software chief Craig Federighi insisted that the company is building AI on its own terms, with a focus on practical features.

Meta is launching its first paid AI product for businesses, betting it can finally build revenue beyond ads.

Meta launched its first paid AI product for businesses: a tool called Meta Business Agent. The tool lets companies respond to customers, recommend products, and book appointments across WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram. Larger businesses will pay based on the volume of data the agent uses, while smaller businesses will pay for it on a subscription basis. The launch matters because Meta still earns about 98% of its revenue from digital advertising, and its AI spending is expected to run into hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the agent will eventually help businesses run their whole operation, not just answer customer messages. Meta's existing base of over one billion active business conversations happening on its apps every day gives it a distribution advantage as it makes this push.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - Knicks game 2 tonight. The city is feeling it.

🌎 The Big Picture

There’s been some good news on the jobs front, and a lot of data showing the scary headlines might not be the real narrative.

The job market seems to be improving.

Unemployment stayed very low last month, and hiring has picked up in the past few months. The official jobs report from the Labor Department this morning also showed wages growing more quickly - not enough to keep up with the cost of living, but that’s still better.

Tech companies are announcing aggressive job cuts tied to AI, but broad layoffs are still historically low.

The Department of Labor clocked 225,000 initial unemployment filings for the week ending May 30, a four-month peak, though it's mostly down to Memorial Day timing and end-of-school-year patterns. The four-week average is still well below last year's. Meanwhile, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that tech companies announced 38,242 planned layoffs in May alone, with AI getting the blame for 40% of all announced cuts across the whole economy.

There's a real difference between announcements and actual filings, though. Challenger tracks positions companies say they'll cut. The Department of Labor tracks real people who lost jobs and filed claims. And despite months of scary layoff headlines, fewer people are filing for unemployment right now than they were a year ago.

The job market looks very different depending on where you work.

Tech is reshuffling fast. Yes, it’s cutting a lot of roles, but also simultaneously posting the biggest hiring plans of the year for AI-focused positions. Everywhere else, layoffs are low, but hiring is slow too. If you've got a job, you're probably fine. If you're looking for a new one, expect the search to take a while.

Young college grads are having a rough time finding work, and remote work is a big reason why, not AI.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York dug into unemployment trends and firm-level hiring data to figure out what shifted after the pandemic. Companies got reluctant to bring on entry-level workers because training and mentoring someone over video call is just harder than doing it in person. That reluctance hit workers under 29 with college degrees hard, pushing their unemployment rates up even while experienced workers kept finding jobs just fine. The gap showed up almost entirely in remote-friendly fields like tech and finance, not in hands-on work that requires showing up in person. One large company's data even showed it pulled back on junior hiring during office closures and only picked it back up once people came back.

That first-job struggle ripples forward for years.

Workers who have a rough start tend to earn less and move up more slowly for years afterward, even compared to equally qualified peers who just happened to enter the workforce at a better time. Youth unemployment started climbing before generative AI really took off, so right now, remote work looks like the main culprit, not technology.

That doesn’t mean it won’t make things worse though.

But for now, these numbers and trends are decently positive trends cutting through the noise.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

BP removed its chairman of eight months over governance and conduct concerns, adding to years of boardroom instability.

BP removed its third chairman in three years with immediate effect. The board cited serious concerns about governance standards, oversight, and conduct. Albert Manifold, who had been in the role for just eight months, was replaced by interim chair Ian Tyler while BP searches for a permanent successor. Manifold pushed back publicly, saying he accepted the board's decision but rejected what he called lies about his conduct, noting that no one at the company had raised any issues with him directly during his time in the role. The dismissal adds another chapter to a turbulent stretch at BP as the company executes a major strategic pivot back to oil and gas and away from renewables. New CEO Meg O'Neill, who took the role in April, remains in place, and the board says the company's strategic direction is unchanged.

Alphabet is raising $80 billion in equity to fund an AI spending race.

Alphabet is raising $80 billion to fund an AI spending race that is outpacing the cash the business generates. The Google parent is structuring the raise in three parts: a $10 billion private placement with one of the world's most respected investment firms, $30 billion in underwritten public offerings, and a $40 billion program to sell shares gradually into the open market starting in the third quarter. The scale of the spending is hard to overstate. CEO Sundar Pichai has said compute capacity is what keeps him up at night, and the numbers back that up. Alphabet updated its investment spending forecast for this year to as much as $190 billion, and its finance chief has said spending in 2027 will be significantly higher still, with some estimates putting it near $300 billion. That would exceed the company's operating cash flow, meaning Alphabet is pouring more money than it can make to build the infrastructure it believes AI demand requires.

Nvidia is entering the PC market with a new chip designed to bring AI agent capabilities to everyday computers

Nvidia is entering the personal computer market with a new processor called the RTX Spark. It combines two types of processors into one device, handling both graphics and general computing tasks. It debuts this fall in laptops and desktops from six major PC brands. The chip uses less power than the processor design that has powered most Windows PCs for decades, enabling thinner, lighter machines. It is also designed to run AI models directly on the device rather than sending that work to a data center. For Nvidia, the move extends its dominance in AI chips beyond the data center and into the hands of everyday users. CEO Jensen Huang called it the start of a PC shake-up that could rival the arrival of the smartphone, a self-described milestone for a company whose quarterly sales now roughly match the combined annual totals of its two largest PC chip rivals.

McDonald's unveiled a new global growth strategy built around better food, service, technology, and restaurant design.

McDonald's unveiled its new global growth strategy, called McDonald's Next, at its biennial convention for franchisees in Las Vegas. The plan centers on four areas: improving food and drink quality, listening more closely to customers' needs, upgrading restaurant design to streamline operations, and training employees to deliver better hospitality. The fast food giant is also testing an AI-powered ordering system at five drive-thru locations, part of a broader effort to free up employees for customer-facing work. McDonald's faces a more competitive landscape, but has held its ground with four straight quarters of same-store sales growth.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - made it through a short week. Nice.

🌎 The Big Picture

Here’s what I’ve been watching:

Americans are spending more and saving less as prices keep climbing.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the cost of living is rising so fast that incomes and spending can barely keep up. Policymakers' preferred inflation tracker, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, climbed 0.4% in April, up 3.8% over the past year, the biggest one-year increase in the cost of living in three years. Gasoline prices surged 5.5% in a single month and are up more than 50% since the Iran war began in late February, driving up costs across the economy. Tariffs are also still pushing goods prices higher. Even when excluding volatile energy and food prices, so-called core inflation has climbed by the most since 2023.

Americans spent more in April, but it was mostly because of higher prices.

And after adjusting for inflation, incomes actually declined for the third straight month. That means every paycheck buys less stuff. To keep up, many households are drawing down their savings and putting away less of each paycheck. The personal saving rate fell to just 2.6%, one of the lowest levels on record. With prices rising nearly twice as fast as policymakers consider normal, investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs higher for longer.

Mortgage costs keep climbing, stalling home buying.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that total mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.65%, its highest point since August 2025. Rates have now risen 0.3% over five consecutive weeks, and the cumulative effect hit refinancing hardest. Government-backed loans felt the sharpest drops, with Federal Housing Administration applications falling 18% and Veterans Affairs applications dropping 34%. Applications barely moved, but the record average loan size of $473,600 signals that mostly higher-budget buyers are still active. Borrowers with smaller down payments and tighter budgets are stepping back as higher rates shrink the pool of homes they can afford. The spring homebuying season is getting put on ice again by high home prices and expensive mortgage rates.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Target is grading employees on friendliness as CEO Michael Fiddelke pushes to win shoppers back.

Target wants friendlier stores, and now it's putting that on employees' performance reviews. The retailer is rolling out a formal assessment that scores workers on how they greet and engage with shoppers, alongside reliability, teamwork, and execution. Workers are also now expected to smile, make eye contact, and greet any customer within 10 feet, and a new dress code requires red shirts with jeans or khakis. These softer changes sit atop a harder set of fixes already underway. CEO Michael Fiddelke has been adding staffing hours and working to keep shelves stocked after shoppers complained about longer checkout lines and empty shelves. Target plans to open more than 30 new stores and remodel more than 130 locations this year as part of the broader effort to win customers back.

McDonald's is admitting it will miss its 2030 target for reducing its fossil fuel pollution.

McDonald's is falling well short of its 2030 goal to reduce its air pollution. The fast-food giant has reduced the fossil fuel emissions generated across its supply chain by only about 3% since 2018, when it was planning to cut that pollution in half. About 95% of McDonald's locations are franchises, and the beef, agriculture, and energy powering that vast network make up nearly all of its emissions. The company is framing the miss as an industry-wide problem rather than a failure of ambition, pointing to slow clean energy growth and fragile global supply chains. McDonald's still hopes to reduce its net fossil fuel emissions to zero by 2050 and will back that with at least $1 billion in investments in its supply chain over the next decade, focused on regenerative agriculture for beef, soy, palm oil, and coffee.

Snowflake reported surging revenue and signed a huge cloud deal as businesses ramp up AI spending.

Snowflake may not have name recognition, but its numbers are making headlines. Snowflake helps businesses store, manage, and analyze all their data in one place. When a company wants to build an AI tool that automates inventory decisions, for example, that AI needs to sit close to the data and process it quickly. Demand for that kind of service is growing fast, with revenue climbing 33% from a year ago to $1.39 billion. The company also raised its full-year forecast, driven by more businesses running their actual AI projects on its platform rather than just testing the waters. The bigger headline is a five-year, $6 billion commitment to the leading cloud provider, Amazon's AWS. The agreement gives Snowflake access to custom AI chips and deeper infrastructure ties at a moment when compute capacity is tight across the industry. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy called the quarter a clear turning point, with AI moving from experimentation to real business use.

Dell posted its fastest sales growth since going public, driven by surging demand for AI servers.

Dell Technologies just posted its fastest revenue growth since going public in 2018. Companies are rushing to buy the specialized servers needed to build and run artificial intelligence systems, and AI server sales grew 757% year over year as cloud companies, governments, and enterprises continued placing large orders throughout the quarter. The broader business held up too, with laptop and PC sales growing 17%, a sign that demand runs deeper than just AI infrastructure. Dell raised its full-year revenue outlook by roughly $25 billion in a single quarter and lifted its AI server target for the year to $60 billion, reflecting how central the company has become to building the world's AI infrastructure.

Eli Lilly is buying three vaccine developers and stepping back into infectious disease prevention.

Eli Lilly is spending up to $3.8 billion to acquire three small vaccine developers. Curevo is building a shingles vaccine designed to cause fewer side effects than the current standard shot. LimmaTech is working on vaccines for staph infections and bacteria increasingly resistant to antibiotics. Vaccine Company is developing a vaccine against the Epstein-Barr virus, a common infection linked to certain cancers and neurological diseases. The deals are part of a bigger 2026 acquisition run for Lilly, which has accelerated on the back of strong sales from its obesity drugs. Lilly says the strategy is aimed at preventing disease at its source rather than treating its consequences.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - if you’re reading this and it’s Friday, get out of here. Enjoy the weekend. If it’s Tuesday, well done. Welcome back.

🌎 The Big Picture

It was a relatively light week, but there are some bigger trends worth highlighting that caught my eye this week:

American businesses hit the brakes in May, and the strain is showing.

S&P Global's monthly Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which tracks business activity across the U.S. economy, came in at the same sluggish level as April, pointing to economic growth of barely over 1% annualized for the second quarter. That's a serious slowdown from where we started the year.

The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has thrown shipping through the Strait of Hormuz into chaos, squeezed global supply chains, and pushed energy prices up. Factories scrambled to stockpile inventory before costs got any worse, which gave manufacturing output a temporary bump to a four-year high.

That stockpiling bump isn't real demand. Orders crept up slowly, exports dropped, and service businesses, where most Americans work, had their worst showing since late 2023. Business input costs jumped at their steepest pace since the brutal inflation stretch of late 2022, and companies passed those costs onto customers with the fastest price hikes in nearly four years. Workers felt it too, especially in services, where employers started cutting jobs rather than absorb the higher costs.

Rising prices paired with slowing demand is a rough combination that's squeezing household budgets and business margins alike.

Vet costs are rising faster than most prices, and there's a clear reason why.

Bank of America's analysis of card transactions across millions of customers found that vet services got 6% pricier over the past year through April 2026, well outpacing overall inflation and much faster than wages. It's no accident. Large corporations and private equity firms now own roughly 25 to 30% of all vet practices and about 75% of specialty clinics. As they've squeezed out local competition, prices have climbed and pet owners have lost any real leverage.

If you have pets and haven't reviewed your budget for veterinary care lately, this is a good moment to do that.

Americans are falling behind on debt, and student loans just got much worse.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that total household debt barely budged, rising just 0.1% to $18.8 trillion in Q1, the slowest growth in years. But the share of people missing payments keeps climbing toward territory not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Over 13% of all credit card balances are more than 90 days overdue, and retail debt like department store credit and installment loans isn't far behind at 9.8% over 90 days delinquent. That doesn't even count Buy-Now-Pay-Later balances, which don't show up on credit reports at all. Auto loans are the worst of all, with 5.6% of balances 90 or more days past due, a record going back over 20 years.

The housing market is holding up relatively well.

Mortgage and home equity line of credit balances are mostly being managed, with only about 1% more than 90 days past due on both. Credit card and mortgage delinquency rates ticked up gradually in Q1, and auto loans were roughly flat, so the deterioration is happening slowly enough that it hasn't set off alarm bells for policymakers just yet.

Student loans are a whole different situation.

The share of student loan balances 90 or more days overdue jumped to 10.3%, up from 9.6% at the end of 2025. About 2.6 million more borrowers fell into default in just the first three months of this year, on top of the million who defaulted last quarter. That kind of debt stress is going to start showing up in consumer spending, and businesses will feel it.

Stepped back, the picture across this week's data is consistent: slowing growth, rising costs, and households under increasing financial pressure.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

SpaceX filed to sell shares publicly in the biggest deal ever.

SpaceX filed paperwork to sell shares to the public in what would be the biggest such deal ever. Private companies don't have to share their finances, so the filing gives outsiders their first real look at how SpaceX makes and spends money. The Elon Musk-led company is aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation near $2 trillion when it lists on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. SpaceX is really three businesses: a profitable satellite internet service called Starlink, a cash-burning rocket business, and a money-losing AI division built around the recently acquired xAI. Starlink is the only one making money and is funding everything else, including Musk's plans for orbital data centers and a Mars colony.

Nvidia posted record revenue and a 92% jump in its data center business as AI demand continues to surge.

Nvidia's growth keeps shattering records as it pushes deeper into new markets. The chip giant's data center business revenue jumped 92% from a year ago to a record $75 billion, fueled by surging demand for AI computing from the largest tech companies. Now Nvidia is moving beyond those few giant customers, betting that governments, enterprises, and AI-focused cloud companies will become its next major source of growth. The company is also moving into central processing units, the chips that run most of the world's computers, and expects to bring in $20 billion in CPU sales this year alone. CEO Jensen Huang called the rush to build AI data centers "the largest infrastructure expansion in human history."

Walmart grew sales across every income level last quarter, even as fuel prices squeezed shoppers and profits.

Walmart is gaining shoppers across all income levels as families turn to its stores and app for groceries and essentials. Sales jumped 7.3% to $177.8 billion last quarter, with online orders up 26% and fast delivery now reaching 60% of the US population within 30 minutes. Higher fuel prices hit Walmart on two fronts: they took a $175 million bite out of operating profit as the company moved goods across the country, and they changed how shoppers behave at the pump, with average fill-ups dropping below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022. Walmart absorbed nearly all of the added costs and offered 20% more discounts than a year ago, but warned that shelf prices may rise if fuel prices stay high.

Deere's construction business is booming on AI demand while big farm equipment sales keep dropping.

Deere's business is splitting in two: construction equipment is booming on AI data center demand, while big farm equipment sales keep dropping. Net sales rose to $11.8 billion last quarter, with construction and forestry up 29% as builders race to put up data centers and infrastructure, while large tractor and combine sales fell 14%. Crop farmers have been squeezed for years by low crop prices and high costs, and the conflict in Iran is now pushing fuel and fertilizer prices higher, leaving growers reluctant to spend on new equipment. The world’s biggest farm machinery maker held its full-year profit outlook steady and still expects 2026 to be the bottom of the farm downturn.

NextEra is buying Dominion for $67 billion in the largest power deal ever, driven by AI data center demand.

NextEra Energy has agreed to buy Dominion Energy for $67 billion in the largest power utility deal in US history. The acquisition is intended to help NextEra keep up with the massive electricity demand from artificial-intelligence data centers. The deal gives NextEra the exclusive right to provide power across Virginia and the Carolinas, where many of the country's largest AI data centers are being built, driving electricity demand to record highs. Owning Dominion gives NextEra access to a region it could not otherwise serve. Together, the two companies plan to build massive amounts of new power generation over the next decade, almost all of it to power new AI data centers. CEO John Ketchum called the deal "a defining moment" for US energy infrastructure.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - thanks for giving me a pass last week. Took the weekend off to make some memories with my wife and our new little girl. It’s been a crazy month. Plus the launch of the new Share Scoops for financial advisors. Doing 5-10 demo calls a day.

🌎 The Big Picture

Here's what you need to know this week:

Gas prices are back to record 2022 levels, and some states are getting hit much harder than others.

AAA reported the national average hit $4.53 per gallon on May 14, up more than $1.35 from a year ago and pretty much right back to the gut-punch levels we saw in 2022. If you're in California ($6.14), Washington ($5.77), Hawaii ($5.64), Oregon ($5.34), or Alaska ($5.26), you're getting hit the hardest right now.

A global oil supply crisis is the main driver, and lower-income families are feeling it most.

The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the U.S. entry into military conflict with Iran on February 28, triggered the crisis. Before things escalated, about one-fifth of the world's oil flowed through that waterway. Now it's down to a trickle, crude oil has pushed into the $100-per-barrel range, and real people's budgets are feeling it. Low-income families are getting squeezed the most, handing over a bigger chunk of every paycheck every time they pull up to the pump.

A proposed federal gas tax suspension could help, but the savings may be smaller than advertised.

President Trump proposed suspending the federal gas tax, which would knock about 18 cents off the price per gallon. It's not huge, but it matters for a lot of families. Fair warning, though: experts say the actual savings could be smaller once retailers and distributors take their share. It's also worth knowing that the tax funds highway construction and maintenance, so suspending it means tradeoffs we'd all feel down the road. And with AAA saying Americans are planning to travel in record numbers over Memorial Day weekend, all that extra demand could push prices even higher before things ease up.

New listings outpaced home sales for the first time this year, as mortgage costs pushed buyers to the sidelines.

Zillow reported 426,000 new homes hit the market in April, up 2.1% from a year earlier, but 0.4% fewer homes actually sold compared to last April. It's been a tough, slow spring for anyone trying to navigate the housing market.

Home prices are still rising, but the pace has slowed, and monthly payments are down from a year ago.

The typical U.S. home value rose 0.7% over the past year to $366,712, great if you already own, but increasingly discouraging if you're a first-time buyer trying to break in. The silver lining: the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home came in at $1,829, down 3.4% from a year ago, thanks to lower rates earlier this year.

Buyers have more inventory and more negotiating power than last spring, though climbing rates are cooling the rebound.

Active inventory rose 3.7% from April 2025, and 23.5% of listings saw a price cut in April, which means sellers are more open to negotiating than they used to be. Still, with rates climbing back above 6% following the conflict with Iran, the spring sales rebound Zillow had hoped for probably isn't going to play out the way anyone wanted.

Employers added more jobs than expected in April, but the broader hiring trend has cooled significantly.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 115,000 new jobs last month, down from a strong 185,000 in March but well above the 65,000 economists were expecting. Over the past 12 months, though, employers have averaged only 22,000 new jobs per month, a fraction of the pace we saw in stronger years. Healthcare led hiring again, followed by transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment kept sliding, shedding another 9,000 jobs and bringing total federal losses to 348,000 since October 2024.

Wages are growing, but not fast enough to keep pace with what most workers are dealing with.

Average hourly pay rose just $0.25 for the month, up 3.6% over the past year, a touch slower than economists had expected.

Unemployment is still relatively low, but the number of people who want more work than they can find is climbing.

The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, but the number of people actually out of work did climb. More folks said they've stopped actively looking for a job altogether. And maybe most telling: the number of workers stuck in part-time jobs because they can't find full-time work jumped by 445,000 to 4.9 million, a real reminder that a lot of people out there want more hours and more stability than the market is giving them right now. Most employers are holding onto the people they have, but if you're out there job hunting, it's tougher than it was not that long ago.

Taken together, the picture this week is one of cost pressure hitting from multiple directions. Energy prices are squeezing household budgets and business bottom lines at the same time, the housing market is cooling but not in a way that makes it easier for buyers, and a job market that looks acceptable on the surface is showing real signs of strain underneath. None of these trends exists in isolation, and together they add up to an environment worth watching closely in the weeks ahead.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

PayPal is cutting 20% of its workforce as a new CEO pushes for investing in AI.

PayPal is cutting roughly 4,760 jobs, about 20% of its workforce, as a new CEO pushes the payments company to invest more in AI. The cuts will roll out over the next two to three years and aim to save $1.5 billion, money PayPal plans to pour back into modernizing its technology. CEO Enrique Lores, who took over in March after the previous CEO was pushed out for moving too slowly, told investors PayPal has "underinvested in its technology platform" and is falling behind rivals. His plan: remove layers of middle managers and accelerate the use of AI across the company's operations. This is one of PayPal's biggest workforce cuts ever as the company tries to become a technology leader again.

Coinbase is cutting 14% of its workforce as it rebuilds around AI.

Coinbase is cutting roughly 700 employees, about 14% of its workforce, as AI enables smaller teams to do the work. The crypto exchange also faces a weaker trading market, with falling prices eroding its primary revenue stream. But the bigger story is how Coinbase is rebuilding itself for the AI age. The company is reducing layers of middle managers, so fewer leaders oversee more people. It is also creating small teams where a single employee directs AI agents that handle the work of engineers, designers, and product managers combined. CEO Brian Armstrong said the company needs to "return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core." This is not the first time Coinbase has cut staff during a crypto downturn, but it is the first time AI is the bigger story behind them.

Cisco is having one of its best quarters in years as it becomes a key supplier behind the AI buildout.

Cisco is having one of its best quarters in years as the AI boom turns the networking giant into a key supplier behind the scenes. The company that makes the switches, routers, and chips that connect data centers reported record quarterly revenue of $15.8 billion, with its networking division growing 25% on surging orders from the largest AI data center operators. Cisco nearly doubled its full-year forecast for AI infrastructure orders to $9 billion. The company is also cutting about 4,000 jobs, less than 5% of its workforce, but framing it as a shift of money and people into AI, security, and chip design rather than a downsizing. CEO Chuck Robbins said the companies that win the AI era will be the ones with the focus and urgency to keep moving investment toward the strongest demand.

Cloudflare's revenue just hit a record high, yet the company is cutting 1,100 jobs and reshaping itself around AI.

Cloudflare is cutting 1,100 jobs, about 20% of its workforce, even though revenue just grew 34% from a year ago. The internet infrastructure company says AI agents have taken over enough work that many roles are no longer needed. Internal use of AI tools jumped by more than 600% in just three months across teams such as engineering, finance, HR, and marketing. CEO Matthew Prince said the cut roles "just aren't the roles that we need for the future," joining a growing list of profitable tech companies pointing to AI as the reason for layoffs.

Hims & Hers lost $92 million as it shifted from cheap copies of weight-loss drugs to brand-name versions.

Hims & Hers is going through a rocky transition after settling a legal fight that forced it to change how it sells weight-loss drugs. The telehealth company built a booming business selling cheap copies of brand-name weight-loss drugs made by compounding pharmacies. But one of the big weight-loss drug makers sued Hims, and the two settled in March. Hims agreed to stop advertising the cheaper copies and instead sell the brand-name version, which costs more and yields less profit per sale. Demand is strong, with Hims fulfilling more than 125,000 shipments in six weeks. But the lower profit per sale partially led to a $92 million loss for the quarter.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - it’s May. I know, I had no idea either.

🌎 The Big Picture

The big story this week was no major change in direction. Stocks are still soaring, borrowing costs aren’t coming down, and big corporations are making more money than ever. One really nice piece of news is that the AI job-stealing headlines are exaggerated.

Stocks finished April by climbing to new record highs.

Strong corporate profits and solid spending gave investors just enough to feel good about things, even with a messy economic backdrop. The broad S&P 500 index finished the month up 10.4%, its best monthly run since November 2020, and the Nasdaq popped 15.3%, its strongest April since 2020.

Financial reports from America's biggest companies have driven most of the optimism, with S&P 500 companies on track for the best revenue growth in years and the best profit margins on record, according to FactSet. The latest updates from Big Tech showed that the main thing driving the economy, AI spending, hasn't let up. And the Commerce Department also confirmed that the US economy accelerated this year after a slow fourth quarter.

For regular folks, the picture's still mixed. The economy's growing, but it doesn't feel even across the board. Energy costs are still very high thanks to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and borrowing rates are staying stubbornly high. So, investors are excited about corporate profits and are broadly looking past some of the risks from rising costs, with the consensus assumption that the conflict in the Middle East is on a positive path.

It's not getting any cheaper to borrow money, but savings accounts will keep paying well.

The Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs unchanged for the third meeting in a row, and the vote made clear that policymakers are genuinely split on what comes next. The central bank kept its baseline rate range at 3.50-3.75% for the third meeting in a row, leaving borrowing costs roughly where they have been since the end of last year, with eight members voting to hold and four dissenting for opposite reasons. One governor wanted to cut rates immediately, while three regional bank presidents opposed any language suggesting cuts were coming at all. That much dissent has not happened since 1992, showing how uncertain policymakers are right now.

The Federal Reserve started bringing down interest rates last year to restrict borrowing and spending less, as inflation finally started to calm down. However, the ongoing Middle East conflict pushed gasoline prices up 21.2% in a single month, the largest jump on record, driving the cost of living higher and raising concerns for policymakers. Until energy prices settle, the Fed does not see a clear path to cutting rates. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is stepping down as chair, with Kevin Warsh expected to be confirmed by the Senate the week of May 11. How Warsh leads the committee, and whether energy costs cool off, will shape whether borrowing finally gets cheaper later this year for businesses, homeowners, and spenders.

AI is spreading through American businesses, but it hasn't actually had a big impact on workers yet.

The Census Bureau released new data from its Business Trends and Outlook Survey covering November 2025 through January 2026, offering the most detailed look yet at how companies are actually using the technology. About 18% of firms reported using AI in a business function during that period, a share that rises to 32% when weighted by how many people those companies employ, meaning larger businesses are leading adoption. Large firms in finance, professional services, and information are the heaviest users, with adoption rates ranging from 50% to 60%.

Even among companies that do use AI, most are applying it to a narrow set of tasks, most often writing, editing, and searching for information. Only about 2% to 3% of all businesses reported using AI to automate a task that an employee previously handled. Just 1% of firms changed their staffing levels because of AI, with increases and decreases happening in roughly equal numbers. The biggest reason most businesses have not adopted AI is straightforward: they do not see it as useful to their work.

While this data captures a single moment early in a long adoption process, it should calm some of the headline-induced anxiety about AI sparking mass layoffs.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Spirit Airlines is close to a $500 million government loan that could give the US a 90% stake.

Spirit Airlines is fighting to survive a second bankruptcy in under two years, and the federal government may end up owning most of it. The Trump administration is working on a $500 million loan that could give the government a 90% stake in the budget carrier once it emerges from bankruptcy. A jump in jet fuel costs, tied to the conflict in the Middle East, pushed the airline toward possible shutdown just as it was emerging from its most recent bankruptcy. Spirit has already cut its flight volumes roughly in half from a year ago, and some industry watchers say $500 million may not be enough to keep it flying for long.

Amazon's cloud business is growing at its fastest pace in years as AI companies pour money into its infrastructure.

Amazon's cloud division is growing at its fastest pace in over three years. The surge is driven by artificial intelligence companies that have committed hundreds of billions to future infrastructure spending. The e-commerce and technology giant is pouring $200 billion into data centers this year, a bet so large it has wiped out almost all of its spare cash. Amazon's own AI chips have already lined up over $225 billion in customer orders, putting it in the rare position of competing with the dominant chipmaker that powers most of the AI world. CEO Andy Jassy said the early years of building this kind of infrastructure always squeeze cash flow, but called the company "unusually well positioned" for the AI boom now in its early stages.

Meta is pouring more money than ever into AI, even as users dip and Wall Street questions the payoff.

Meta is going all-in on artificial intelligence at a scale that is changing how the company spends money. The social media giant raised its full-year spending target to as much as $145 billion. The jump comes from higher chip prices and its push to build the massive data centers needed to train and run AI. The company is also cutting roughly 8,000 jobs to offset rising costs. Daily users across Meta's apps fell from the previous quarter, the first decline the company has reported, partly due to government internet restrictions in Iran and Russia. Revenue grew at its fastest pace since 2021. But CEO Mark Zuckerberg admitted he does not have a precise plan for how all this spending will eventually turn a profit, even as the company prepares to take on tens of billions in new debt to fund it.

Alphabet's cloud and search businesses are both surging, fueled by booming demand for AI tools.

Alphabet had its strongest quarter ever for Google Cloud, its business of renting computing power and software to other companies. Google Cloud passed $20 billion in quarterly sales, up 63% from a year ago, as businesses rushed to buy AI software and computing power. Search queries hit an all-time high after Google added AI-generated answers to its results, easing fears that chatbot rivals would eat into its core business. The internet giant is spending heavily to keep up, raising its 2026 infrastructure budget to as much as $190 billion, nearly double what it spent in 2025. Even with that, CEO Sundar Pichai said the company still cannot make enough computing power to meet customer demand, with much larger spending planned for 2027.

Intel is bouncing back as huge AI demand for its server chips fuels its first real growth in years.

Intel is growing again, powered by huge demand for the server chips that run AI behind the scenes. Sales to data center customers jumped 22% from a year ago, as companies building AI tools rediscovered Intel's chips as a key part of the puzzle. CEO Lip-Bu Tan took over a year ago after Intel spent years watching rivals take over the AI chip market. Since then, the company has stabilized its finances with billion-dollar investments from the federal government and a top AI chip rival, and is now scrambling to make enough chips to meet customer orders.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - btw, we’re doing some cool things on the business side. If you’re a financial advisor, check out our new pro platform that helps you stay visible and earn more referrals without having to become a marketer.

🌎 The Big Picture

The market is up. But nothing feels good out there.

It's time for a reminder that the stock market is not the economy. It makes sense once you understand what the market actually measures.

When people say "the market," they usually mean the S&P 500 index that tracks the market values of the 500 largest public companies in the US, weighted by the size of the company.

Not small businesses. Not your local economy. Not how most people are actually feeling day to day.

Small businesses make up roughly 99% of all US businesses and employ nearly half of all private sector workers. None of them is in the S&P 500.

So when the market rises, it's reflecting the performance of large public companies, not the broader economic experience most people are actually living.

And it gets more concentrated than that. The ten largest companies out of those 500 often make up more than a third of the index's total value. So when a handful of giants are doing well, the “market” can keep “going up” even if the rest of the picture is mixed.

One more layer: Stock prices don't reflect how the economy feels right now. They reflect investors' expectations about the future.

Specifically, it's about their expectations for corporate profit growth.

When investors are confident that America's biggest companies will keep growing their profits, they tend to buy shares of their stock to benefit from that growth, driving stock prices higher. So the market and the economy can move in different directions at the same time.

And America's biggest companies are off to a strong start this earnings season with massive profits.

According to FactSet's latest Earnings Insight report, profits for companies in the S&P 500 are on track to grow 13.2% in the first quarter compared to a year ago, which would mark the sixth quarter in a row of double-digit profit growth.

Only 10% of companies have reported their first-quarter financial results so far, but the early results are strong. So far, 88% of companies have reported higher profits than analysts expected, well above the usual rate of around 78%. Sales are also up nearly 10%, the best revenue growth since 2022. Banks and tech companies are leading the way, while energy companies are the one weak spot, with lower oil profits pulling that sector down. Corporate profits are the main driver of stock prices over the long term, so strong profit growth can be a positive sign for investment portfolios.

Meanwhile, Americans’ confidence in the economy fell to a record low in April,

driven by fears that the Iran conflict would push energy prices higher and keep the cost of living elevated. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers showed sentiment dropped 10.7% from March, with every component of the index declining and setbacks reported across all ages, income levels, and political affiliations. People reported feeling worse about their personal finances, less willing to make big purchases like cars and appliances, and more concerned about where prices are headed.

The biggest concern is about the cost of living. People expect prices to rise by 4.8% over the next year, up a full percentage point from the month before and the largest one-month increase in inflation expectations since last spring’s tariff announcements. Policymakers watch inflation expectations closely because they can become self-fulfilling, as people shift their spending habits and businesses raise prices in anticipation.

It is worth noting that 98% of interviews were completed before a ceasefire was announced on April 7, so the data largely reflects peak anxiety. These expectations could make policymakers less eager to bring down borrowing costs, and businesses may need to adapt to shifting customer preferences.

And small businesses are pulling back in the face of higher fuel costs.

Bank of America's latest analysis of its transaction data across millions of customers found that fuel expenses, freight costs, and tariff-related inventory bills all climbed sharply in March, leaving small business owners with less room to hire, invest, or expand. Firms spent 23% more last month on gas than they did last March. Agriculture and trucking companies got hit the hardest. Those higher fuel costs did not stay contained. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, truck freight costs have surged nearly 50%, pushing up the price of moving goods across the country.

Business owners responded by pulling back. Payroll spending broadly declined for the third consecutive month. Some industries were looking to hire. Construction and manufacturing increased hiring, with recruiting-related spending at its highest in about a year. On the positive side, profits at small businesses are still growing, but only at about a quarter of the pace of the first quarter last year. Small businesses employ nearly half of all private-sector workers, so when owners pause on hiring, it gets harder for people to find work. For now, business owners are being cautious.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Meta is capturing employee keystrokes and screen activity across hundreds of apps to train its AI models.

Meta is turning its own employees into a training dataset. The social media and technology giant is installing software on US staff computers to capture mouse movements, keystrokes, and screen snapshots across hundreds of work apps and websites. They are using that data to teach their AI models how humans actually navigate computers. The effort sits at the center of a sweeping internal transformation that includes laying off 10% of its global workforce, the creation of a new AI engineering team, and a push to replace traditional job roles with a general-purpose title called AI builder. The tech giant says the data will not be used for performance reviews, but employees have raised concerns about privacy and the exposure of sensitive personal information.

Live Nation lost a major antitrust trial and now faces hundreds of millions in damages and a potential breakup.

Live Nation lost a landmark antitrust trial, with a federal jury finding that the concert and ticketing giant illegally dominated the live events industry and overcharged fans. The verdict, driven by a coalition of 33 states after the federal government settled early, leaves the company facing up to $700 million in damages and a potential forced sale of Ticketmaster. The largest US concert promoter plans to appeal, but the judge still must determine penalties and remedies, meaning the company could be fighting this legal battle for years.

Boeing is finally delivering more planes and losing less money than it has in years.

Boeing is delivering more planes and burning through less cash than it has in years. This is a big turnaround for a company that has been stuck in crisis mode for most of the past decade due to quality control failures that led to crashes and high-profile investigations. For years, the planemaker has been spending more money than it brings in. Airlines only pay for jets when they actually receive them. So the 143 planes it shipped in the first three months of the year, its most since 2019, are finally helping close the gap. Boeing plans to build 47 of its top-selling 737 jets each month this summer, up from 42, with two new models on track for government approval by year's end.

Best Buy is picking a longtime insider as its next CEO to turn around years of sluggish sales.

Best Buy is picking a 27-year company insider to pull it out of a years-long sales slump. Jason Bonfig, who built the retailer's online marketplace and advertising business, takes over as CEO at the end of October, replacing Corie Barry after more than seven years at the top. Sales at the electronics chain have dropped in 14 of the past 16 quarters as cautious shoppers, a slow housing market, and higher tariffs cut into demand for TVs, computers, and appliances. The company is banking on a new wave of AI-powered phones and laptops to bring buyers back into stores.

Apple is replacing its CEO for the first time in 15 years.

Apple is handing its top leadership role to an engineer who spent 25 years building its most iconic products. John Ternus, who shaped the iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch, takes over as CEO on September 1, with Tim Cook shifting to executive chairman after 15 years leading the company. The transition puts a product-focused engineer in charge at a moment when Apple has fallen behind in artificial intelligence, even as it continues generating more than $400 billion in annual sales, nearly four times what it generated when Cook took over. In his current role, Ternus has been reorganizing product teams around AI and overseeing a new lineup of AI-focused wearables and home devices.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - spring is sprangin’ here in NYC. Cherry blossom petals are snowing all around. Let’s close up early today.

🌎 The Big Picture

US investors pushed stocks to record levels this week as hopes grew for a resolution to the Iran war.

The broad S&P 500 stock market index crossed 7,000 for the first time on Wednesday and closed even higher on Thursday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index posted its longest winning streak since 2009. The gains reflect a broad shift in investor optimism as the White House signaled that US-Iran talks could resume as soon as next weekend, and Israel and Lebanon agreed to a short-term ceasefire. The increased confidence that the end of the war is in sight made investors more comfortable taking risks and moving more money into stocks, lifting prices.

But the optimism comes with a clear warning from the latest economic reports and executive commentary: the economic damage from months of conflict has not disappeared. Businesses across industries have already raised prices to cover higher energy and commodity costs, and leadership teams have raised concerns on earnings calls. But right now, investors are feeling good.

But the conflict in the Middle East is making businesses across the US nervous.

Companies are holding off on hiring and new investment, taking a wait-and-see approach. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book this week, a report that checks in on economic conditions across its 12 regions by talking to businesses and community groups. Eight regions reported small amounts of growth, two saw little change, and two got slightly worse. Gas and fuel prices shot up in all 12 regions, making it more expensive to ship goods and produce things like plastics and fertilizer. Businesses saw their costs rise too fast to pass them on to customers, eating into their profits and forcing them to cut back their spending and hiring. Most companies stopped adding permanent workers and instead hired temporary staff, with some using AI to get more done without hiring anyone at all.  

High gas prices slowed spending for people with lower incomes, while wealthier shoppers kept buying travel and luxury goods. The real estate market cooled off, too. Home sales slowed as higher mortgage costs and uncertainty kept buyers away. Overall, the Federal Reserve didn't ring any alarm bells, and sees the economy still going slow but steady.

Fewer Americans bought homes in March, and those who did paid record prices.

The National Association of Realtors reported that there were 3.6% fewer sales of previously owned homes last month, the weakest pace since June 2025. The median sale price rose to $408,800, a new record high for March and 1.4% above where it stood a year ago. With mortgage costs climbing sharply since the start of the conflict in Iran, buyers who had just begun benefiting from lower rates earlier this year are finding homes less affordable again.

Sellers, meanwhile, are not listing in large enough numbers to bring prices down; there are still not enough homes for sale to give buyers much negotiating room. More of the purchases were investors and second-home buyers, while the share of first-time buyers slowed to roughly one-third of all purchases, reflecting how difficult it remains for them to enter the market. The realtors dramatically dialed back their sales expectations for the year, slashing their full-year sales forecast from 14% growth to just 4%. It remains a slow housing market for buyers and sellers as mortgage costs and prices climb.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Allbirds is becoming an AI company after its shoe business failed.

Allbirds is walking away from shoes. The once-celebrated sustainable footwear brand peaked at a $4 billion valuation before sales fell nearly 50% between 2022 and 2025, and it sold off its brand and intellectual property last month for just $39 million. Now the company is remaking itself as a business that buys and rents out powerful computer hardware to tech companies, under the new name NewBird AI. To fund the new direction, Allbirds is raising up to $50 million. In a final break from its roots, the company also plans to remove all references to its environmental mission from its charter, since the energy demands of AI computing directly conflict with the sustainability commitments on which the brand was founded.

Snapchat is cutting 1/6th of its employees and blaming AI.

The company behind Snapchat is cutting 16% of its full-time employees as it tries to become consistently profitable for the first time. The social media giant is letting go of about 1,000 workers and closing more than 300 open positions, with CEO Evan Spiegel pointing to advances in artificial intelligence as a reason the company can now do more with fewer people. AI is already writing more than 65% of Snap's new code, allowing smaller teams to handle work that previously required larger ones. The cuts are expected to reduce the company's annual costs by more than $500 million, which Snap says will put it on a clearer path to profitability.

PepsiCo's proving cutting prices can drive more sales.

PepsiCo's price cuts are working. After dropping prices on Doritos, Lay's, and other staples by as much as 15% earlier this year, more people are buying its snacks again for the first time in over two years. Beverages are still struggling, though, with fewer people buying its drinks in North America than a year ago. PepsiCo is responding to a broader shift toward healthier eating by reformulating products to remove artificial colors and rolling out new lines that are higher in protein and fiber. The company also overhauled its Gatorade brand, introducing new products focused on better hydration and lower sugar. PepsiCo didn't change its financial forecasts for the rest of the year, but said a more uncertain economy is something to watch.

JPMorgan Chase had its best trading quarter ever while its CEO warned of growing risks ahead.

JPMorgan Chase had its best trading quarter ever, pulling in $11.6 billion, nearly $2 billion more than its previous record, as volatile markets drove clients to trade more actively across stocks, bonds, and other markets. The largest US bank also saw fees from advising companies on mergers and acquisitions more than double, while everyday customers continued to open new accounts and take out loans at a healthy pace. Despite the strong quarter, the bank trimmed its forecast for how much money it expects to earn from charging interest on loans this year, a key driver of bank earnings. Walking back a projection it had raised just two months earlier. CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged the economy is holding up well but flagged a growing list of concerns, including trade uncertainty, energy price swings, and geopolitical tensions, as reasons to stay cautious about the road ahead.

Goldman Sachs is riding high on trading fees.

Goldman Sachs is having a historic moment in its stock trading business, with its traders posting the highest revenue quarter on record for the second consecutive quarter. Wild swings in financial markets driven by the Iran conflict pushed investors to trade more actively, and Goldman's trading desks captured that activity at a scale no bank has matched before. Goldman's business of advising companies on major deals like mergers and acquisitions is also coming back to life after years of quiet. Activity surged, driving a sharp jump in advisory fees and suggesting more companies are pursuing deals despite the uncertain environment. One area did struggle, though. The part of the business that trades bonds and interest-rate products had a down quarter.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - looking for some new music recommendations, so if you have anything you’re jamming to right now, send it my way.

🌎 The Big Picture

 The main thing driving everything is still the war, which had a lot of good news this week.

Gas prices may finally start coming down after weeks of sharp increases driven by the US-Iran conflict.

President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. In exchange, Iran agreed to allow ships to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf that carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. Attacks on commercial ships in the Strait had caused the largest disruption to global crude supplies in history, pushing the price of oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel sharply higher. With promises of the route reopening, US crude oil prices fell more than 16% on Wednesday, one of the steepest single-day drops in years.

Energy analysts say drivers could see prices start coming down at the pump within days. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan expects national average gas prices to fall below $4 a gallon within one to two weeks if the ceasefire holds. However, prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. For now, the truce remains relatively fragile. For now, travelers and businesses are on track for a little relief.

The stock market kept climbing this week as investors grew more confident that a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran could hold.

But the relief comes with real limits. Oil prices are still climbing, the Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed to tankers, and the economic damage from five weeks of conflict is already showing up in the data.

The latest economic data revealed that the US economy had an even weaker fourth quarter than initially estimated. For everyday Americans, prices are still rising while the broader economy is slowing, and a lasting resolution in the Middle East remains uncertain.

Americans are spending more but earning less, and it is getting harder to save.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income fell 0.1% in February, driven by a drop in dividend payments and a decrease in Affordable Care Act enrollment subsidies. Accounting for inflation, people actually lost 0.5% purchasing power in the month. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, but once higher prices are factored in, people barely bought anything extra, with real spending up just 0.1%. People are essentially paying more for the same stuff.

Higher prices and lower incomes are making it hard to get ahead. The personal saving rate, what people set aside after taxes and spending, dropped from 4.5% in January to 4.0% in February, well below the pre-pandemic average of more than 7%. Families have significantly less financial cushion for unexpected expenses or a sudden spike in costs.

The US economy depends on consumers spending more every month to keep growing, so the steady purchases are a positive sign for businesses. But with incomes slipping and savings shrinking, households have less room to absorb potential higher costs ahead.

Hiring bounced back in March.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 178,000 net new staff last month, far more than economists expected and making up for the 133,000 net job losses in February. Much of that February decline came from temporary setbacks, including a healthcare worker strike and severe winter storms, and those workers returning to their jobs helped inflate March’s count. Healthcare led the way, as usual, adding back 76,000 jobs, as nurses who had been on strike. Construction and transportation also hired a lot, while the federal government cut another 18,000 positions.

Without much hiring demand from employers, workers haven’t been able to negotiate the same pay raises. Wages grew by only 3.5%, the weakest annual pace in nearly five years, but still gaining ground on the higher cost of living.

While the data swings a lot month-to-month, the trend of low hiring and low firing has been steady. Over the past six months, the unemployment rate has actually declined slightly, while employers only grew their staff by a very low average of 16,000 per month. So, it’s a very challenging time to find a job, but those who have one are pretty secure in keeping it.

Sports betting is taking a toll on household finances.

Researchers at the New York Federal Reserve analyzed consumer spending data and credit report data to compare financial outcomes in states that legalized mobile sports betting against those that did not. Even though only about 3% of people actively started placing bets after legalization, the financial fallout was large enough to create noticeable debt problems for entire counties. Among people who took up betting, the percentage of people seriously delinquent on their debt payments jumped by 10 percentage points, roughly doubling the broader percentage of people seriously behind on their payments. Adults under 40 were hit hardest, falling behind on both credit card and auto loan payments at notably higher rates.

The damage did not stop at state borders either. People who lived near legal states crossed over to place wagers, and delinquency rates climbed in those areas, too, even though those states collected none of the tax revenue. For anyone struggling to pay down their debts, the data is growing clear that sports gambling is more likely to make the problem worse.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Levi’s multi-year push to sell directly to customers is paying off.

Levi’s is seeing results from its multi-year push to sell directly to customers through its own stores and website, rather than relying on department stores and other retailers. That shift just crossed a meaningful milestone, with direct sales now making up more than half of the company’s total revenue for the first time. The denim brand also expanded beyond its core jeans business into tops and new styles, helping drive strong results across every region. The company now expects a stronger year after posting double-digit sales growth in the first quarter, even as many other clothing brands are struggling. A renewed consumer interest in 90s fashion has given Levi’s an unexpected boost, with sales of specific vintage-style fits jumping sharply.

Eli Lilly received regulatory approval for a once-daily weight loss pill.

Eli Lilly received regulatory approval for a once-daily weight loss pill. Foundayo gives patients an alternative to weekly injections. The drug belongs to a class of medicines called GLP-1s, which mimic hormones that are important for appetite, digestion, and insulin regulation. It can be taken at any time of day without food or water restrictions, a convenience advantage over competing pills that require strict morning routines. Foundayo is not as effective as Lilly's injectable weight loss drug Zepbound, which has helped patients lose significantly more weight on average, but analysts expect the pill to appeal to patients who prefer a simpler daily routine or a lower price point. Analysts project Foundayo could generate nearly $15 billion in annual sales by 2030.

Nike is struggling in China.

Nike is struggling in China, its second-largest market. Sales have now fallen for seven straight quarters, down 7% in the most recent quarter. The sportswear giant warned that sales there could drop another 20% this quarter as it works through excess inventory, dragging down overall worldwide sales. The problems go beyond just weak sales. Industry insiders say Nike has been slow to adapt to local tastes, with decisions made at the top leaving local teams unable to respond quickly to what Chinese shoppers actually want. Domestic competitors have moved faster, offering products designed specifically for Chinese consumers at competitive prices.

Delta Air Lines is cutting flights as surging fuel costs threaten its profits.

Delta Air Lines is slowing down its plans to grow as rising jet fuel costs from the conflict in the Middle East add more than $2 billion to its expected expenses through June. The airline is cutting back on flights and raising checked bag fees to help cover the extra cost. Delta just had one of its best quarters in years, but the rest of the year is less certain. Delta owns its own fuel refinery in Pennsylvania, which gives it more control over costs when prices rise than airlines that rely entirely on outside suppliers. That advantage, combined with strong demand for premium seats and business travel, puts Delta in a better position than many of its competitors.

Meta launched its first AI model from its new superintelligence team.

Meta launched Muse Spark, a new proprietary AI model built from scratch over nine months by its newly formed superintelligence research team. The model now powers Meta's AI assistant and will roll out across its family of apps in the coming weeks. Muse Spark still trails top competitors in some areas, so the tech giant framed the release as the start of a broader series of models rather than a finished product. This marks a shift away from the company's long-standing approach of making its AI models publicly available. The company is also exploring paid access for outside developers as a new way to generate revenue.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - hope you’re like the stock market and getting the day off today. If not, just leave anyways they won’t notice.

Shoutout UConn men and women in the final four this weekend! Screamed and woke my dog and baby for that final shot of the men’s game on Sunday. Wild!

Last week, most of you said your March Madness brackets were busted:

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🪦 Busted
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ❤️‍🩹 Still alive
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙄 Don't care

🌎 The Big Picture

There’s still a war going on that’s really going to be driving the narrative for a while, but here’s what stood out to me this week:

The stock market swung wildly again on Thursday, ending slightly higher. Investors spent the day oscillating between fear and cautious relief as the US-Iran conflict showed no clear sign of ending soon. In a Wednesday night address to the nation, President Trump said the US would strike Iran hard over the next two to three weeks, causing US crude oil prices to surge more than 11% in a single day, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022.

When people pay more at the gas pump, it raises the cost of transporting goods, which businesses often pass along to shoppers through higher prices. That is why oil spikes matter far beyond the gas station.

A brief moment of hope came when Iranian state media reported the country was working with Oman on a plan to monitor shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for both oil and helium, a material with no substitute in computer chip manufacturing.

Layoff announcements ticked up in March. But workers are still largely holding onto their jobs. Placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that employers announced 60,620 job cuts last month, up 25% from February. However, looking at the first three months of the year, first-quarter layoff announcements are the lowest in four years, down from last quarter and half as many as the start of 2025.

AI was the leading reason companies cited for layoffs in March, making up roughly one in four announced layoffs. Companies are moving money toward AI investments, and the technology sector is feeling it most, with the highest year-to-date total layoff announcements since 2023.

While announcements have picked up, they’re not translating to real unemployment. The Labor Department reported that the number of workers filing for unemployment for the first time fell last week to 202,000, well below expectations, suggesting companies are not actively pushing workers out the door. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in March, which is right around where it’s been for the past year and is historically pretty low.

It remains a low-hire, low-fire job market. Announced cuts are a forward-looking signal of what companies plan to do, while unemployment filings reflect what is happening right now, and right now, actual job losses remain low. It’s a really hard time to find a new job, but job security is still relatively good.

Prices at the pump keep climbing. Gasoline crossed $4 a gallon in March for the first time since 2022, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. In late February, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Middle East through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. When that chokepoint closes, energy markets around the world feel it almost immediately.

The change has been steep. In the weeks since, crude oil prices have climbed by over 50% in March to above $100 a barrel, and average gasoline prices have risen by more than $1 per gallon nationwide, up more than 35% in one month. Diesel has climbed even higher, topping $5.45 a gallon, which raises costs for trucking and shipping and feeds into the price of nearly everything else.

The White House has taken steps to try to slow the rise, including temporarily allowing foreign ships to carry fuel between US ports and suspending certain summer fuel regulations. So far, fuel prices remain high with little relief in sight. These higher costs could slow spending or encourage businesses to cut costs, potentially making it even harder to find a job and raising the risk of layoffs.

Wall Street bonuses hit a record high in 2025 for the second year in a row. The average annual bonus payment, on top of bankers’ salaries, rose 6%, to $246,900 last year. New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli estimated the total bonus pool at $49.2 billion, up 9% from the year before, driven by rising profits across the financial industry from increased trading, generating more commissions, and more corporate mergers and transactions, driving higher advisory fees. Wall Street profits climbed more than 30% in 2025, fueling the payouts.

The record bonuses went to fewer people than in past years, as Wall Street employment in New York City dropped to its lowest level in three years. More financial industry jobs have been growing in other parts of the country. Wall Street still supports roughly 1 in 13 jobs in the city, directly or indirectly, and contributes nearly 20% of New York State’s tax revenue. DiNapoli noted that while last year’s performance was strong, there are more risks facing the industry this year. Bankers won’t be able to count on record bonuses every year. Still, the pay growth for the industry at the highest end of the compensation spectrum might bode well for continued raises across the economy.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

DraftKings faces mounting lawsuits accusing the platform of using addictive technology.

DraftKings is facing a wave of personal injury lawsuits that argue its sports betting platform is intentionally built to addict users. The online sportsbook's core features, including real-time microbetting on individual plays, parlay structures designed around near-miss psychology, and algorithm-driven push notifications timed to reach users at their most vulnerable, are now the subject of legal claims in both Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. Plaintiffs allege the company assigned personal VIP managers to its heaviest losers, keeping them engaged with gifts and constant contact. One plaintiff lost over $1.5 million and eventually checked himself into a psychiatric facility. With more than half of its wagering volume now tied to the in-game betting formats under scrutiny, the company faces a direct tension between its growth strategy and its mounting legal exposure.

Coinbase is letting homebuyers use their crypto holdings as a down payment.

Coinbase is pushing deeper into everyday finance by letting homebuyers use their crypto holdings to fund a down payment without selling them. The largest US crypto exchange partnered with a digital mortgage lender to create a product where bitcoin or USDC stablecoin, a digital currency tied to the US dollar, is pledged as collateral for a second loan that covers the down payment on a standard home loan. The product carries Fannie Mae backing, making it the first of its kind to meet conforming mortgage standards, and protects borrowers from having to post additional collateral if crypto prices fall. Coinbase hopes to target the roughly 52 million Americans the company says own digital assets but may lack sufficient cash for a traditional down payment.

Snapchat is under investigation over concerns it's not doing enough to protect children.

Snap is facing a formal investigation from European regulators who believe the platform is not doing enough to keep children safe. The camera-based social media app, popular with teenagers, is under scrutiny for weak age checks, default account settings that leave minors exposed, and an inability to stop users from sharing information about drugs and other illegal goods. The probe adds meaningful regulatory risk to Snap at a time when social media platforms globally are under mounting pressure to address harm caused to younger users. If found in violation, Snap could face fines of up to 6% of its global annual sales.

McCormick is merging with Unilever's food division in one of the largest food transactions in history.

McCormick is becoming a flavor giant, announcing a merger with the food division of British consumer goods company Unilever in a deal that creates a roughly $65 billion global food company. It will bring together brands like Hellmann’s, Knorr, French’s, Cholula, and Frank’s RedHot under the McCormick name and chief executives, with some new hires from Unilever Foods. The deal marks a major strategic shift for Unilever, leaving the company to focus entirely on beauty, personal care, and home products. For McCormick, the transaction puts the CEO and CFO in charge of a global food company generating three times more annual revenue.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - the weekend is here. Spring is sprangin’ and March Madness is serving some nailbiters.

🌎 The Big Picture

The war is the main story, obviously. The bottom line is that the economy is doing decently at a high level. A lot of people are at their limit, and what everybody needed this year was for incomes to continue to catch up to the higher cost of living and for borrowing costs to come down.

That was the projected path, with a lot of optimism from most economists/analysts, for 2026.

• Life would get incrementally more affordable relative to wages.

• Tax refunds would be bigger than normal, giving people more cash.

• The housing market would pick up with lower rates.

• Clarity on trade policy and regulations would clear things up for businesses to hire and invest more.

But the war (and tariffs) is already disrupting that path and is on the brink of potentially making that hypothetical positive trajectory pretty impossible. Not to be a downer.

Fuel costs are already much higher, and the longer they stay high, the more it will feed into other costs, as businesses raise prices to deal with their higher expenses.

You’re already seeing this with USPS raising prices by 8% due to higher fuel costs.

That’s on top of the import taxes.

Business slowed in March to its weakest level in almost a year as prices surged.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks business activity across the US economy, has dropped for two months in a row. This was the first broad look at how the war in the Middle East has started to impact the economy, and things have slowed quickly. The services sector, which makes up most of the economy, slowed far more than economists expected. Businesses are starting to pull back. For the first time in over a year, companies reduced hiring as rising costs and uncertainty led firms to reduce overhead.

Rising costs are the main problem, and they’re rising fast. Higher fuel costs, on top of the higher import taxes implemented throughout the past year, drove businesses’ supply costs up by the most in ten months. Many companies are passing those costs on to their customers, reporting the largest monthly increase in average selling prices since the peak inflation of 2022.

These reports from US companies suggest that both businesses and households will need to plan for higher costs and slower spending this spring.

It’s not a good time for unnecessary price spikes.

Home insurance is getting more expensive, consistently. The average annual premium is projected to rise 4% in 2026 to about $3,057, marking the fifth straight year of increases, according to Insurify, an insurance comparison site.

Healthcare costs are forcing millions of Americans to make tough choices. A survey of nearly 20,000 adults by the West Health-Gallup Center found that 1 in 3 Americans cut back on food, utilities, or other daily expenses in 2025 to pay for healthcare.

Enhanced federal health insurance subsidies expired at the end of 2025 for roughly 22 million Americans who don’t have insurance through their employers or a government program like Medicare, causing premiums to more than double for the average person choosing their plan through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. Nearly 1 in 10 people enrolled in those plans last year dropped coverage entirely due to the higher premiums, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.

This reacceleration of rising prices has also disrupted the plan for interest rates.

Everyone expected it to get cheaper and easier to borrow money this year, which would spur more spending, home buying, and investing. There’s now a risk of it going the other direction.

Mortgage rates surged last week to their highest level since October. The steep jump in borrowing costs discouraged buyers and slowed home purchases a lot. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.43%. Applications to purchase a home fell 5% for the week, as higher rates made monthly payments more difficult to afford and nervousness about the fate of the economy pushed some potential buyers to the sidelines.

People don’t expect policymakers to bring down short-term borrowing costs as much this year either, especially if inflation keeps getting worse. The Fed will have a hard time justifying cutting its benchmark interest rate with inflation rising every month.

So… a lot is riding on whether this war can come to a swift end. I’m no geopolitics expert, but the ones I listen to aren’t super confident that this can be neatly put back in the box.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

YouTube will have to pay for being addictive to teens.

Google is facing a new kind of legal threat aimed at how YouTube is built, not what people post on it. A Los Angeles jury found YouTube negligent for failing to warn about risks to minors and tied product features like autoplay, recommendations, and notifications to a young user’s mental health harms. The case is being used as a test for a larger group of similar California lawsuits, and the trial can still grow more expensive if punitive damages are added next. With more bellwether trials scheduled and separate lawsuits gathering nationally, the video platform’s design choices are becoming a direct operational and financial liability for the company.

Meta faces mounting lawsuits claiming its social media platforms are intentionally addictive and harmful.

Meta is grappling with a series of legal defeats that challenge the fundamental design of its social media platforms. The social media giant now faces over $375 million in financial liabilities after juries found its software features contributed to user addiction and mental health crises. By focusing on design flaws rather than content, these lawsuits bypass traditional legal protections for internet companies. This loss-heavy week marks a turning point as the tech giant defends its engagement strategies against thousands of similar claims nationwide.

Super Micro Computer staff were charged with smuggling AI servers to China.

Three people connected to Super Micro Computer were charged with smuggling $2.5 billion worth of AI-chip-powered servers to China, including the co-founder, who was arrested. The group allegedly sent servers through Taiwan to a middleman company in Southeast Asia. They used fake paperwork and stand-in servers to trick auditors. To avoid getting caught, they used hair dryers to move serial number stickers from real servers onto fake ones left behind for inspections. Two of the three charged have been arrested, while a third remains a fugitive believed to have fled to Asia. The co-founder stepped down from the company's board the same day as the arrest.

Apollo is limiting withdrawals from its lending fund as nervous investors try to cash out.

Apollo, a major investment firm, is only returning 45 cents on the dollar for withdrawal requests from its lending fund this quarter. The fund received requests to pull out 11.2% of shares, more than double its allowed limit, so investors who wanted their money back are getting less than half of what they asked for. The fund lends money directly to companies. As investors grow nervous about companies failing to pay the funds back, withdrawal requests have increased. Apollo tried to calm concerns by pointing out that it mostly lends to larger, stable companies. It’s holding firm on its withdrawal limits to protect investors who want to stay in the fund.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - happy Friday. We’re in an all-out sprint here at Scoops, building out something really cool for financial advisors to help them educate and help people at scale, like we’ve been doing. Really pumped. Really exhausted. Can’t wait to release it next month.

🌎 The Big Picture

To say it was a relatively uneventful week feels relatively right and absolutely wrong. But here’s what I was paying attention to for you.

Investors are worried about the rising energy costs of the Middle East conflict.

Stocks have been sliding around for weeks without a meaningful decline, but each day, policymakers have left more questions about the proposed tariffs, taxes, and government spending. Oil prices, which feed into everything from gas to shipping to manufacturing to food, have soared to their highest level since June 2022 this past week. Stock market investors are searching for clarity on policies, especially after the Federal Reserve left the future of interest rates up in the air at Wednesday's policy meeting.

Despite all of the swings of the past few weeks, the broad S&P 500 stock market index is down less than 6% from its record highs. Investors haven’t found a reason to hit the panic button yet.

It’s not getting cheaper to borrow money yet, but savings accounts will keep paying well.

The Federal Reserve decided not to continue lowering baseline interest rates at its January meeting, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, after cutting rates by 0.75% over the second half of 2025. Most other lending rates, from credit cards to car leases, are derived from this benchmark. The Fed initially raised borrowing costs to slow spending and get inflation under control, but now that prices aren’t rising as quickly anymore, policymakers have been inching rates lower to find a more neutral level that doesn’t restrict business too much.  

The Federal Reserve believes the economy started the year in decent shape, but it’s not sure what policy moves it will make this year. The Fed is tasked with keeping unemployment low and prices stable, but shifting tariff policies and war-driven oil price shocks have the potential to drive up living costs and strain the economy. Meanwhile, unemployment is low, but hiring has stalled. So the Fed isn't eager to make any moves to stimulate or restrict the economy until things play out. For businesses and households, this means interest rates may stay higher for longer, and relief on loan payments could take time.

Wealthy Americans drove a pickup in spending last month.

The Bank of America Institute reported that credit and debit card spending for their millions of customers was 3.2% higher in February than a year earlier, the strongest growth in more than three years. Spending also climbed 0.9% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Part of that rebound came after winter storms earlier in the year kept people home and temporarily slowed spending. People spent a lot more on services like travel, dining, and lodging, though regular retail store purchases picked up as well.

But not everyone is spending the same. Higher-income households continue to drive the spending in America as their wages rise far faster than those of lower-income workers. Bank of America’s data shows wages for higher-income households grew about 4.2% over the past twelve months, roughly 3.5x faster than the middle-income group and 7x faster than lower-income households, the widest gap in the bank’s data going back over a decade. For the first time since early 2022, lower-income households are spending faster than their paychecks are growing. Larger tax refunds this year are helping cushion budgets and boost purchases on non-essentials like electronics and travel. Still, businesses may see that boost fade if wages don’t start growing faster for everyone. Businesses may need to reshape their customer profiles to adapt to spending trends.

AI isn’t driving widespread improvements in productivity yet, but American workers are getting paid better. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm business labor productivity grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, showing that workers were more productive than economists expected. But the improvements in output per hour were a notable step down from the 5.2% pace set in the third quarter. The full-year average landed at 2.2%, which is right in line with the long-run historical norm.

Employers paid workers more per hour over the holidays, helping to gain ground on the higher cost of living. American paychecks ended 2025 with 1.3% more purchasing power than the year before. Unit labor costs (what businesses pay per unit of goods or services produced) rose 2.8%, reversing two straight quarters of declines, meaning companies are spending more to get each unit out the door.

The manufacturing sector is struggling with worker efficiency. Factory productivity fell 1.9% in the quarter, while manufacturing unit labor costs jumped 8.3%, the steepest increase since Q3 2022.

Overall, workers keep getting more productive, but not dramatically so, and are earning better paychecks from it. That means businesses’ costs are rising, but their customers have more spending money.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Adobe is paying $150M to settle a lawsuit over its unfair subscription cancellation practices.

Adobe agreed to pay $150 million to settle a US government lawsuit over hiding cancellation fees and making it a headache for subscribers to leave its creative software plans, though Adobe denied doing anything wrong. The deal includes a $75 million civil fine and another $75 million delivered as free services to customers, turning a policy dispute into a direct operating cost. The resolution lands as the longtime chief executive prepares to step aside, raising the stakes for leadership to keep trust high while the business navigates competitive pressure from AI services.

CVS's Aetna must pay $117.7 million to settle Medicare fraud charges.

Aetna, the insurance subsidiary of CVS Health, agreed to pay $117.7 million to settle Justice Department charges that it defrauded Medicare. The government accused Aetna of submitting false diagnosis codes to collect higher payments than it was entitled to receive. Medicare Advantage, the private insurance version of Medicare, pays insurers more for sicker patients, so Aetna had a financial incentive to make patients appear sicker than they were. The government alleged that between 2018 and 2023, Aetna submitted morbid obesity diagnoses for patients whose recorded body weight didn't support that diagnosis, and separately failed to remove inaccurate codes it had already identified during its own internal records review. CVS denied wrongdoing and said it settled to avoid the cost of prolonged litigation.

Nvidia expects to make at least $1 trillion in two years from its AI chips.

Nvidia's feeling very confident about its business right now. The CEO of the world's most valuable company predicted at least $1 trillion in orders for Nvidia's Blackwell chips and its next-generation Vera Rubin chips through 2027. That's double the $500 billion outlook the company issued just last fall. Vera Rubin, set to roll out later this year, is designed to handle the growing demand for running AI in real time rather than just training it, delivering ten times more performance per unit of energy than its predecessor. The chipmaker generated $215.9 billion in revenue in its last fiscal year, a 65% jump from the year before.

Uber is locking in robotaxi partners and vehicle supply to expand driverless rides into everyday city transportation.

Uber is turning robotaxis into a core product line by lining up both the technology and the vehicles needed to scale. It tied its network to Nvidia’s autonomous driving platform, starting with Los Angeles and San Francisco in 2027 and aiming for 28 cities by 2028, using early data-collection cars to learn each city before going fully driverless. Together, the deals show Uber leaning into a partner-led approach, paying to secure supply and software access instead of building a full self-driving stack itself. That shift matters because it ties Uber’s future service quality and unit economics to how quickly these partners can safely operate at scale across cities.

Rivian launched its long-awaited R2 SUV this spring, but the affordable version buyers were promised is still years away.

Rivian is launching its long-awaited R2 SUV this spring. However, the price is starting at $57,990 for the first performance model, with the more affordable $45,000 version buyers were promised not arriving until late 2027. The R2 is considered a make-or-break moment for the company, which has burned through billions of dollars and needs the new model to broaden its customer base and drive consistent profits. The electric vehicle maker touted a 100,000-plus reservation queue, but many placed their orders expecting a $45,000 price tag and a federal tax credit that no longer exists.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - hard to say if it was a quieter week or if it’s all starting to blur together. Ordered two personal pan sized cinnamon buns from a place in the West Village, so that’s my weekend plan.

🌎 The Big Picture

The story of the week is really the whipsawing reactions to the war with Iran. There’s some progress in the housing market for anyone looking to buy.

The stock market slumped on Thursday as investors grew worried about how the war in Iran is driving up oil prices and making everyday goods more expensive. The broad S&P 500 index lost 1.5% and closed at its lowest point of the year.

Investors are particularly rattled by soaring oil costs linked to Iran’s efforts to disrupt global shipments through the Persian Gulf. Attacks on tankers and messages from Iran’s new Supreme Leader kept companies from shipping anything through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway next to Iran that typically carries a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Despite the US and other governments pledging hundreds of millions of barrels from their oil reserves, oil prices surged almost 10% in a single day.

The White House has promised a swift end to the conflict, but investors are starting to raise questions as to whether the military dominance of the US and Israel will be enough to reopen oil supply lanes. Investors may see more volatility in the market until there’s a clear path to restoring the global fuel supply.

More people are buying homes as mortgage costs fall.

The National Association of Realtors and digital real estate platform Zillow both reported a pickup in activity last month. The buying buzz has largely been driven by falling mortgage costs. The typical monthly mortgage payment is down 7.7% from a year ago, giving a median-income household roughly $30,000 more in buying power than it had twelve months ago.

The other big shift is more people putting their homes on the market after a long period of low supply. There were 5% more listings on the market in February than there were the year before. The increase in supply has slowed the rise in prices. Average home values have increased by less than 1% in the past year. That’s not great for sellers, but it’s creating more opportunities for buyers. However, the concerns about the conflict in the Middle East have started pushing rates higher in recent weeks, which might impact the spring home shopping season.

I’ll leave you with that for this week. The company stories have me wondering where tech is headed and whether it’s a good thing.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Meta has humans secretly watching footage from customers' smart glasses.

Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses are sending users' private footage to human contractors overseas. A joint investigation by two Swedish newspapers found that workers at a Kenya-based company called Sama are reviewing the footage, including deeply personal content that users almost certainly never intended to share. Contractors reported seeing credit card numbers, text messages, people using bathrooms, and explicit footage, all sent with limited filtering to their workstations for AI training purposes. Meta says content is filtered before human review to protect privacy, but contractors told the Swedish papers the filtering sometimes fails and faces remain visible. The tech giant sold more than 7 million pairs of the smart glasses in 2025.

Live Nation avoided a forced breakup with Ticketmaster.

Live Nation found a way to avoid going to court over its alleged ticket monopoly with Ticketmaster. The Justice Department reached a settlement with Live Nation one week into the antitrust trial, allowing the event giant to dodge any court rulings that could have reversed its 2010 merger with Ticketmaster. The agreement forces Live Nation venues to cap service fees at 15% of face value, open venues to competing promoters, divest 13 exclusive booking agreements with amphitheaters, and pay $280 million in damages to states on behalf of consumers. The settlement still requires court approval, and more than two dozen bipartisan state attorneys general are trying to block it, arguing the settlement fails to address Live Nation's monopoly power and shortchanges consumers

Google is building its first data center powered entirely by clean energy.

Google is building its first Minnesota data center, powered entirely by clean energy. Most data centers drive up local electricity bills and strain power grids. To get its new data center approved, Google is proposing a different approach, covering all infrastructure costs itself, so existing customers of local utility won't pay more. To power the site, Google is funding nearly 2,000 megawatts of new wind, solar, and battery storage, including what will be the largest battery ever announced globally by capacity. The tech giant has set ambitious goals to operate its entire business, including data centers and offices, 24/7, without creating carbon pollution on every grid where it operates by 2030

Toyota is recalling more than 550,000 Highlander SUVs.

The world's largest automaker is recalling half a million SUVs in the US over safety issues. Over 550,000 Toyota Highlander and Highlander Hybrid SUVs, from model years 2021 through 2024, have second-row seat backs that may fail to lock into position after adjustment, leaving passengers improperly restrained in a crash. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Toyota recalled more than 3 million vehicles in 2025, the second most of any automaker. No injuries or crashes related to the defect have been reported for this one. Dealers will provide repairs at no cost to owners.

T-Mobile countersued Verizon this week over a "bait-and-switch" advertising campaign.

T-Mobile countersued Verizon this week. The suit accuses its rival of running a "bait-and-switch" ad campaign that lures customers with savings promises it cannot deliver. The lawsuit follows Verizon's February suit against T-Mobile over exaggerated claims about how much customers would save by switching carriers. Both companies are now suing each other for triple damages and an end to the challenged ads. According to December 31 financial reports, Verizon leads the US wireless market with 146.9 million subscribers, narrowly ahead of T-Mobile's 142.4 million.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - heck of a ride this week. I’ve got some reassuring context about the scary headlines for you, so you can go into your weekend with a little peace.

🌎 The Big Picture

I find myself struggling every week to really identify what the most important topic of the week is, because it feels like there’s something momentous hitting the wire every day.

For now, let’s call it the war in the Middle East. But there’s not a lot to say about it from an economic standpoint yet. Oil prices have climbed 20%+ in the past week, which is already filtering through to prices at the pump. But that’s much less dramatic than the climb from the war in Ukraine. (~$80/barrel today vs. $120/barrel peak after Russia invaded). And it’s hard to know whether this will be over within a week or 10 years, and whether it would really disrupt oil supply enough to have an impact. The US is a net exporter of oil, and we have a lot of reserves. And other oil-exporting countries have started pumping more. So there are plenty of levers to make this not a major issue for gas prices, but there are plenty of ways this could go sideways that I’m not qualified to speculate about.

The hiring market is starting to look pretty bleak. But, that’s with has one massive (and reassuring) caveat: stalled hiring doesn’t mean rising unemployment.

The numbers this week and this morning point to one thing: no one is hiring.

Here’s why you’re hearing scary headlines about a terrible job market in February this morning: Healthcare had been the main industry driving most of the hiring for a while, but with strikes last month, the sector wasn’t able to boost the overall “jobs number” that every news outlet talks about. That number is how many more people had jobs in the US than the month before. The health of the economy is evaluated based on growth, so economists like to see 100K-200K more people working every month. Last year, it was about 15K/month. In February, the number of people working declined. Employment has declined across many industries for months. The “information” industry has lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Reassurance: declining employment doesn’t necessarily mean layoffs. 

The US workforce is aging out. Boomers are retiring, and younger generations are much smaller numbers. And much of our employment growth has been because of immigration. With immigration stalling, our workforce would naturally decline in size.

Unemployment numbers haven’t risen that much in the past year. Layoff announcements are relatively low nationwide, and weekly new unemployment filings have been low for months.

I haven’t seen any convincing data that AI is significantly influencing layoffs. It is likely just going to provide support for business leaders to avoid hiring. Post I made last week on Block’s 40% staff cut due to “AI” below.

So there are some silver linings to make the headlines a little less jarring.

Block’s 40% Layoff: AI Fears or Business Realignment | Augustus Christensen posted on the topic | LinkedIn

Block fired 40% of their company. Stock popped 25%. This isn't the AI story you think it is. Block (fka Square) spoke directly to everyone's huge fear right now: AI is creating mass unemployment. Before you buy the doom narrative, here's what actually happened: Block peaked near 13,000 employees around 2023, up from roughly 4,000 pre-pandemic. They're now cutting from 10,000 to under 6,000. That's returning to pre-pandemic size trend. Same story as the tens of thousands of layoffs from Meta, Google, and Amazon in the past few years. This is also a company that renamed itself from Square to Block in November 2021. Peak crypto, NFT, web3 - weeks after Facebook became Meta. They're very good at reading investor sentiment. Right now, the moment is AI. The cut is real, but it's more likely overdue right-sizing dressed in a compelling narrative. That's not a knock. It's impressive brand management. Why the doom scenarios of "10% unemployment in 2 years from superAI" don't hold up: Think about your own company. How many are still running on Windows Vista? Manual processes? With weird exceptions that only the one back-office person who's been there 20 years understands, and none of it is in a manual anywhere. AI is like a really smart unpaid intern. The tasks the best interns don't screw up are things with a clear process and very little experience-based decision-making. There's a decent amount of that work out there, but it's not most of the work. And it's not all fast-replacement work. Most companies that want to automate will first have to redesign how they operate. That's not a software update. That's a years-long business transformation. The more realistic picture: Boomers are aging out of the workforce in huge numbers. Immigration is stalling. The US just doesn't have enough workers to keep pace with the economy. Last year was the lowest hiring in decades, outside of a recession, but unemployment didn't increase much. AI can fill that gap without necessarily displacing people by the millions. This is capitalism. Companies aren't working 4-day weeks because they can do things 20% faster than 10 years ago. Efficiency drives growth, not just cuts. Where the real impact lands: Entry-level, not mid-career. A 22-year-old faces real headwinds because companies will add AI for that low-skill, process-driven work over new staff. But, on the bright side, a 22-year-old can also be reskilled relatively quickly. The truly catastrophic scenario would be tens of millions of 50-year-olds with 30 years in one job needing to retrain into a completely different industry. That doesn't seem like the path we're on. The signal worth tracking: The market is actively rewarding AI mass layoff announcements. That creates an incentive structure where companies will do what boosts their stock. That might mean that any future normal layoff announcements might just get classified as AI efficiency. Do you think Block is the outlier or the first of the wave? | 23 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com/posts/augustus-christensen_block-fired-40-of-their-company-stock-popped-activity-7433163209240391680-W1Dk

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Live Nation is fighting to prove that its merger with Ticketmaster didn't make it a concert monopoly.

Live Nation will have to publicly defend that its merger with Ticketmaster hasn’t given it unfair control over the live events market after months of failed settlement efforts with government lawyers. The Justice Department and dozens of states are pressing that the concert promotion giant used its scale to lock venues into exclusive ticketing and steer tours away from venues that choose rivals. The government originally approved the 2010 Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger under the condition that it wouldn’t threaten venues that chose rival ticketing platforms. The feds say Live Nation broke that deal.

eBay's cutting stuff and buying Depop.

eBay is laying off about 800 employees, roughly 6% of its full-time workforce, while simultaneously making its biggest bet in years on the future of online shopping. The cuts, the third round in three years, are framed to shift resources toward new priorities, chief among them the $1.2 billion acquisition of Depop, a secondhand fashion marketplace. Depop generated about $1 billion in merchandise sales in 2025, with US growth approaching 60% year over year. For eBay, which already does more than $10 billion annually in fashion sales, the acquisition deepens its presence in one of retail's fastest-growing categories.

Block is cutting nearly half its workforce in the name of AI-driven efficiency.

Block, the payments company behind Square, Cash App and Afterpay, is cutting nearly half its workforce in one of the most dramatic restructurings a major company has announced to date. CEO Jack Dorsey told shareholders the company would shrink from over 10,000 employees to just under 6,000, framing the decision not as a sign of trouble but as a proactive response to what AI now makes possible. He cited a sudden leap in AI model capability in December as the moment he decided to act. The cuts came alongside a year where gross profit grew 17%, reinforcing Dorsey's argument that the business is healthy. He predicted most companies will arrive at the same conclusion within a year.  Block's workforce nearly tripled between 2019 and 2023, and some analysts have questioned whether AI is genuinely driving the cuts or simply providing convenient cover for a long-overdue correction. Block's stock surged more than 20% after the announcement, suggesting investors are rewarding the leaner vision regardless.

Netflix gave up on buying Warner Bros.

Netflix walked away from its months-long attempt to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets after Warner’s board declared a rival offer from Paramount to be superior. Rather than raise its $27.75 per share offer to match Paramount’s $31 per share bid for the entire company, Netflix declined to match it. Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters said it plainly: the deal was “always a ‘nice to have’ at the right price, not a ‘must have’ at any price.” Paramount paid the $2.8 billion breakup fee Netflix was owed, effectively handing Netflix a win for simply walking away. The more than $110 billion deal still requires regulatory approval.

Target's new CEO unveiled an ambitious turnaround plan this week.

Target's new CEO used the company's fourth quarter earnings report this week to lay out an ambitious turnaround plan, pledging to spend more than $2 billion this year on opening 30 new stores, remodels, and improving the overall shopping experience with trendy apparel cycles and Beauty Studio concepts. The Minneapolis-based retailer has struggled through roughly four years of flat or declining sales, weighed down by slow sales in non-essential categories, like apparel and home furnishings, which make up nearly a third of annual sales. The company also cut 1,800 corporate roles last October to control costs and said it would redirect savings into in-store jobs to address long checkout lines and messy shelves.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - happy Friday. I’ve got a longer one for you, so let’s jump in.

🌎 The Big Picture

The most important discussion point of the week came from one company.

This week, Jack Dorsey announced Block, the company behind Square, Cash App, and Afterpay, is cutting 40% of its workforce. That's 4,000 people out of 10,000 gone. The stock surged 25% in a single day.

That last part is what you should really pay attention to, and it tells a very different story than the headlines suggest.

Markets were already nervous. Investors have spent the last few weeks waking up to an uncomfortable truth: AI isn't going to make every company more profitable overnight. It might actually disrupt a lot of industries. Citrini Research published a widely-circulated macro note this week imagining a world where superintelligent AI drives unemployment past 10% within TWO YEARS. They called it a hypothetical, not a prediction, but it went viral because it said out loud what a lot of people were quietly thinking and made this expectation much more consensus.

There was good news this week, though. Anthropic came out and said they plan to mostly partner with existing companies and build integrations rather than replace them. That's not a minor footnote. The worst-case fear was that the big model companies would just eat every existing industry whole. That's not what's happening - not yet.

Now to Block. Before you buy into the AI apocalypse narrative, let’s call this more likely what it is: a company cleaning up a hiring mess from the pandemic boom.

Block peaked near 13,000 employees around 2023, up from roughly 3,800 pre-pandemic. They hired aggressively, did modest 8% trims in 2023 and 2024, and are now cutting from 10,200 to under 6,000. That's basically returning to their pre-pandemic size. They added almost 10,000 people during the boom years and now they're cutting back, the same story as the tens of thousands of layoffs you heard from Meta, Google, and Amazon before them.

This is also a company that renamed itself from Square to Block in November 2021, peak crypto, peak NFT, peak Web3, weeks after Facebook became Meta. They are very good at reading investor sentiment and capitalizing on a moment. Right now, the moment is AI. The cut is real, but it's overdue right-sizing dressed in a compelling narrative at the perfect time. That's not a knock on them. It's actually impressive brand management.

Why the doom scenarios don't quite hold up.

The Citrini scenario assumes companies will adopt the most complex autonomous technology ever built faster than they have ever adopted any technology before. Think about your own company. How many are still running on Windows Vista, doing things manually because the systems are just too complex? There are all these weird exceptions that only the one person who has been there 20 years understands, and none of it is in a manual anywhere.

Think about AI like a really smart unpaid intern. The tasks the best interns don’t screw up are things with a clear process and very little experience-based decision-making. There's a decent amount of that work out there, but it's not most of the work. And every company that wants to actually automate will first have to redesign how they operate. That's not a software update. That's a years-long business transformation.

The companies that will move fast are nimble, founder-led startups that already change their processes every day. Block is one of them. Early-stage startup headcount has already been cut nearly in half since 2021 according to Carta. But these are the outliers, not the rule. Most companies are just not built to restructure overnight.

The more realistic picture.

The clearest path forward isn't mass unemployment. It's that hiring just continues to slow. Boomers are aging out of the workforce in huge numbers, immigration is stalling, and the US just doesn’t have enough workers to keep pace with the economy. Last year was the lowest hiring in decades, outside of a recession, but unemployment didn’t increase. AI fills that demographic gap without necessarily displacing the people already in the workforce.

In capitalism, companies rarely say "I can do the same business cheaper, so I'll just pocket the savings." They say "I can do more business at lower cost." Efficiency drives growth, not just cuts. Companies aren’t working 4-day weeks because they can do what they did 10 years ago in less time.

The place to watch is entry-level, not mid-career. A 22-year-old getting into the workforce faces real headwinds because AI handles exactly the process-driven, low-judgment tasks that used to be entry-level work. But the positive side is that a 22-year-old can also be reskilled relatively quickly. The truly catastrophic scenario would be tens of millions of 50-year-olds with 30 years in one job needing to retrain into a completely different industry, but it does not look like the path we're on.

What to actually do with this.

If you're early in your career or advising someone who is:

• Learn AI tools fluently, not just how to use them but how to build and implement workflows around them

• Understand that your real edge is judgment, the experience-based decision making that isn't documented anywhere and that AI genuinely cannot replicate yet

• Pay attention to the positive side of this: AI is putting enormous capability into individual hands, and that means more opportunity for independent businesses and startups than we have seen in a generation. Start a company and build wealth.

If you're investing, the signal this week is that the market is actively rewarding layoff announcements. That creates an incentive structure worth tracking because companies will do what boosts their stock. So we may see more layoff announcements labeled as AI.

Block's 25% single-day pop on 4,000 job cuts is the most important story of the week. Not because it signals the end of work, but because it tells you exactly what the market wants to see next, and how to think about who is positioned to deliver it.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Tesla's safety failures are costing it millions.

Tesla is losing a lot of money over its safety failures. A federal judge in Miami refused to overturn a $243 million verdict against Tesla, ruling that the evidence from the trial clearly supported holding the company partially responsible for a deadly 2019 crash in Florida. The driver of a Tesla Model S with Autopilot engaged dropped his phone, bent to retrieve it, and ran through a stop sign at 62 mph, killing a 22-year-old and severely injuring her boyfriend. The jury found Tesla’s marketing of Autopilot encouraged drivers to trust the system too much. The ruling is the latest in a growing wave of legal trouble for Tesla’s self-driving technology. Since the original 2025 verdict, Tesla has settled at least four additional Autopilot cases rather than risk more jury decisions, and dozens more lawsuits are pending.

Grindr is leaning into faster growth while other dating apps struggle.

Grindr is leaning into faster growth with a clearer playbook: grow the core app, charge more for premium AI experiences, and use excess cash to reward shareholders. The LGBTQ+ social and dating app grew its revenue last year by 28% and produced $95 million in profit as it pushed more users into paid plans and kept costs controlled. Management plans to spend more heavily on its app functionality and artificial intelligence features, launching a high-end subscription tier that automates discovery while planning an expansion into health and wellness services to build a more lasting digital community. At the same time, the company plans to spend $400 million buying back its shares from the market to boost stock prices and reward investors following a failed private takeover attempt by its largest shareholders.

Nvidia reported another quarter of explosive growth, but it wasn't enough for every investor.

Nvidia delivered another blowout quarter, with revenue surging 73% from a year ago as demand for AI chips continued to outrun supply. More than 90% of that revenue came from the company’s data center business, where it sells the specialized processors that tech giants use to build and run AI systems. CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on concerns that AI spending is unsustainable. His argument was simple: in the new AI economy, companies that want to grow need more chips. While expectations were very high for the world’s most valuable company, Nvidia still forecasted a massive $78 billion in revenue next quarter, well above most projections. The company is already transitioning to its next chip generation, which is expected to improve efficiency and lower the cost of processing AI tasks. The one notable caveat: Nvidia’s outlook assumes no data center chip sales to China, leaving a meaningful portion of potential revenue in limbo until the US export policy becomes clearer.

AstraZeneca handed its CEO a $24 million payday after a record year.

AstraZeneca rewarded longtime CEO Pascal Soriot with a roughly $24 million pay package for 2025 after a year of strong results for the British drugmaker. Soriot, who has led the company since 2012, saw his compensation rise as cancer drug sales and new treatments powered growth. Looking ahead, AstraZeneca is betting on a deep pipeline of new drug launches to keep the momentum going. Targeting continued revenue and profit growth in 2026 on its way to an ambitious long-term sales goal. The company is committing billions to US manufacturing and China operations to fuel that push.

Home Depot's profits shrank as a frozen housing market kept homeowners from selling, moving, and renovating.

Home Depot wrapped up fiscal 2025 with steady revenue growth but shrinking profits, as a housing market that has been effectively frozen for three years continued to weigh on customers. Sales rose over the full year, but quarterly net earnings were down from the same period last year, driven by fewer home sales, high mortgage rates, and shoppers pulling back on big renovation projects. The company noted that store visits fell 1.6% in the quarter, even as the average purchase ticked up slightly. Professional contractors and online sales were the bright spots, with digital sales growing.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - I don’t want to throw any shade at Punxsutawney Phil, but I feel like spring is in the air. 新年快乐!

🌎 The Big Picture

Short weeks are always packed. The economy showed some warning signs, but still steady trends. Here are the highlights:

▶️ America’s biggest companies are making a lot of money.

Companies in the S&P 500 index reported 13.2% more profit last quarter than the year before, marking the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth, according to FactSet. Nearly three-quarters of companies earned more profit than investors expected.

Companies didn’t just cut costs to boost earnings. Customers bought more. Tech companies brought in billions more in revenue, and healthcare firms saw massive jumps in spending. Corporations reported 9% higher sales in the fourth quarter than the year earlier, the fastest revenue growth in three years.

Businesses keep getting more efficient, too. Profit margins reached 13.2%, the highest level since FactSet began tracking in 2009. When companies make more money on each sale, they can invest in hiring, raise wages, and reward shareholders through dividends or stock buybacks. Corporate profit growth powers stock prices, so these profit trends can be good news for investors and retirement savers.

▶️ Tariffs have raised prices for Americans as companies scrambled to find new suppliers.

The US increased average taxes on imports from 2.6% to 13% throughout 2025 to protect American industries by making foreign goods more expensive. Sometimes, foreign companies may lower their prices to keep their products competitive in the US, but that didn’t happen much. According to an analysis by the New York Federal Reserve, nearly 90% of the increased tariff costs landed on US companies and shoppers instead, as US importers paid the taxes and often passed those costs on to their customers through higher prices.

The tariffs did help steer American companies to buy less from China. China’s share of US imports dropped from 15% to below 10% in just one year, the sharpest decline since tariffs first went up in 2018. By November, foreign exporters started cutting prices slightly to keep business, but Americans still paid 86% of the tariff burden. The higher import prices forced companies to reorganize supply chains and drove up costs across the board. Businesses may face more uncertainty with their costs as legal challenges to the new tariffs reach the Supreme Court.

▶️ The government is likely to borrow more in the next decade than it did in the past 240 years, risking health and retirement benefits.

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest forecast shows that the government will run a $1.9 trillion deficit this year, climbing to $3.1 trillion by 2036, as Washington continues to spend far more than it earns in taxes every year. According to the non-partisan office, the federal government’s net debt (the total amount it owes to individuals, businesses, and foreign governments) is on track to reach 120% of the nation’s annual economic output within 12 years, the largest share ever.

Tariffs are helping bring in more income, but immigration and spending policies are burning cash while borrowing costs climb. Congress’s 2025 spending bill and tax cuts increased deficits by an estimated $4.7 trillion, while new import taxes reduced deficits by about $3.0 trillion. Interest payments alone will double over the decade, exceeding $2 trillion annually by 2036.

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid face mounting budget problems as baby boomers retire and drain existing reserves, potentially forcing lawmakers to cut benefits or raise taxes. As borrowing costs stay high and the population ages, Americans may need to plan for less reliable retirement and healthcare support.

So, there’s a good amount of stuff that’s prioritizing short-term at the expense of the long-term. What could go wrong?

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Meta faces back-to-back jury trials over child safety.

Meta is fighting two child-safety cases at once as it heads into opening arguments in New Mexico and Los Angeles. New Mexico’s attorney general is pressing claims that Facebook and Instagram connected minors with predators, using an undercover profile modeled on a 13-year-old to argue the products steered children toward exploitative contacts and material. In Los Angeles, Meta is one of the last remaining defendants in an addiction and youth-harm trial after TikTok and Snap settled, with executives expected to testify over the coming weeks. Together, the cases push scrutiny beyond user-posted content and toward product design choices, raising the prospect of penalties and forced changes to how minors can use Meta’s apps.

Goldman Sachs is reversing its diversity hiring commitments under pressure from conservative groups.

Goldman Sachs is dropping diversity criteria for its board members, no longer factoring in race, gender, or sexual orientation when evaluating candidates. The decision came after a deal with the National Legal and Policy Center, a conservative nonprofit that struck similar agreements with American Express and Deere & Company. The move marks a sharp reversal for Goldman, whose CEO, David Solomon, made diversity a centerpiece of the bank's identity in 2019, setting specific recruiting targets for women, Black, and Hispanic professionals. Since President Trump returned to office, Goldman has quietly unwound much of that agenda, including dropping diversity requirements for companies it helps take public.

Levi Strauss is teaching teens to repair jeans while accelerating direct sales.

Levi Strauss is pushing its brand beyond selling jeans by building habits that keep them in use longer. The apparel maker launched the Wear Longer Project with Discovery Education, starting with hands-on high school workshops that teach basic repairs like patching, replacing buttons, and hemming, then expanding with virtual and in-person lessons globally. That community effort sits alongside existing tailoring and resale programs, while the company keeps shifting its business toward selling more directly through its own stores and online channels. In the latest quarter, online sales grew much faster than total revenue, and the company leaned on fuller-price selling to offset higher import costs.

Walmart posted record online sales and its strongest holiday quarter in years.

Walmart posted its strongest holiday quarter in years as competition heated up. Sales climbed nearly 6% as shoppers leaned on the retailer for value during the holiday season. Walmart grew US eCommerce by 27% to a record 23% of sales. That growth was fueled by same-day delivery fulfilled directly from Walmart’s stores, a growing third-party marketplace where outside sellers list products on Walmart’s site, and an advertising business that grew 41% in the quarter as more brands paid to reach Walmart’s massive shopper base. The retail giant’s new CEO, John Furner, just took over on February 1st, facing a competitive market where Amazon just surpassed Walmart as the largest US retailer by annual revenue.

Kroger hired a former Walmart leader to steady operations.

Kroger is turning to an outsider to reset its leadership, naming former Walmart executive Greg Foran as chief executive after a turbulent year. Foran, who previously ran Walmart’s US stores, takes over following the ouster of longtime CEO Rodney McMullen. Kroger is betting that Foran’s track record of improving stores, managing large workforces, and overseeing digital changes can bring steadier execution to its core grocery business. The timing matters. Kroger is still navigating the fallout from a blocked merger with Albertsons, rising union pressure over wages, and contract renewals with the United Food and Commercial Workers union.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - happy Friday before a long weekend. It feels like you earned it. I can tell. Unplug. Maybe even stop checking the news. Maybe take Tuesday off too.

🌎 The Big Picture

It was a jam-packed week of data on the economy, and it wasn’t scary. It wasn’t awesome. It was fine. Hiring, costs, housing, and more seem to be trending (very slowly) in a positive direction.

▶️ Businesses kicked off 2026 with more hiring than expected.

The Labor Department reported that employers added 130,000 net new jobs in January, the most in over a year. Half of the January hiring came from the healthcare and social assistance industries, where demand for medical workers and family services continues to outstrip available staff. Fewer people went without work last month, too, as the unemployment rate dropped to a very low 4.3%.

The higher staffing demands helped employees negotiate higher wages, too, with average hourly earnings climbing 0.4% in January, up 3.7% over the past year, likely helping household budgets regain some ground on the higher cost of living.

January’s hiring jump was a big shift from the past year, where the federal government slashed staff and businesses largely froze hiring even more than initially estimated. Following an annual data revision, the Labor Department reported that American employers hired an average of just 15,000 people per month in 2025, the slowest on record outside the pandemic recession and a tenth of the typical pace seen in healthy periods for the economy. For job seekers, opportunities are still scarce compared to pre-recession norms in many industries, but wages are growing. Businesses still have the upper hand in hiring and salary negotiations.

▶️ Cold weather put the real estate market on ice last month.

According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously-owned homes plummeted 8.4% in January, the largest monthly dropoff in nearly four years. The NAR blames at least some of that on the severe winter storms last month. Home sales activity is at its slowest since December 2023, down 4.4% over the past year across the country. Fewer properties changing hands means lower incomes for real estate agents and related services like movers, inspectors, and contractors.

More homes are coming to market, making things more affordable. The median sale price rose to $396,800 in January, down over 8% from the summer but about 1% higher than last January. Over the past year, rising prices and mortgage costs have strained buyers’ budgets, and homeowners haven’t rushed to sell their homes, keeping supply limited. While there are 3.4% more homes on the market than a year ago, it’s still not enough for a buyer’s market. In this market, sellers find holding power, but buyers should budget more time and resources to close the deal.

▶️ Stocks sank on Thursday as investors grew more worried about artificial intelligence disrupting entire businesses and leading to more layoffs.

The idea that AI would spur massive productivity improvements across the economy, boosting profitability, had fueled the market rally over the past year or so. However, in the past two weeks, investors’ perspectives have shifted starkly negative.

Tech giants have long acted as innovative cash machines, delivering massive profits for investors and driving the market higher. But now, the high costs of AI computing have those same market-leading tech giants burning their cash at unprecedented levels, making them less attractive investments.

Also, as investors have started seeing more practical implementations of AI, they’ve gotten more worried about business disruption than productivity acceleration. Shares of companies across various industries, from financials to logistics and even office property firms, tumbled as investors worried about potential AI-driven job losses. While some view this as a temporary overreaction to new AI products and an expected correction after a long rally, it points to a real fear about technology replacing roles across industries beyond just tech itself.

🚩 Americans are carrying more debt, and stress is building beneath the surface.

The New York Federal Reserve said total household debt rose to a record $18.8 trillion at the end of 2025, with balances increasing across mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student debt. The total amount increasing is normal, given rising prices and more payments shifting to credit cards, but people are struggling to manage those debts.

More Americans are relying on credit cards to cover the rising cost of living, and they’re quickly falling behind on payments. Delinquencies have worsened beyond the depths of the pandemic recession, approaching the worst levels of the Great Financial Crisis. The percentage of credit card debt, auto loans, and other kinds of retail installment loans more than 90 days past due is higher than at any time in the last decade. Overall delinquency rates edged up to 4.8%, and mortgage delinquencies are rising faster in lower-income areas, pointing to growing financial strain for some households.

Student loan borrowers haven’t handled restarted payments well. About 9.6% of student loan balances are now at least 90 days past due, and student loans going into serious delinquency surged to 16.2% as repayments resumed. The data underscore a widening divide: higher-income households remain supported by rising stock market and real estate values, while lower-income borrowers face tougher tradeoffs as high living costs and a slower salary raises squeeze budgets.

👉 So, things haven’t been great, as you likely know. But, there are some optimistic signals.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

American Airlines is facing open employee rebellion.

American Airlines faces massive employee backlash over its leadership issues. Flight attendants formally voted to demand the CEO's resignation and planned a picket at the Fort Worth headquarters, while the pilots’ union pushed for talks with the board. The staff tied their anger to repeated operational breakdowns, including a winter storm disruption that left crews stranded, and to financial underperformance that shrank profit-sharing. America earned just $111 million last year, far below its competitors. Management is trying to stabilize the airline by spreading flights out more at its Dallas-Fort Worth hub, adding schedule slack, and upgrading cabins, lounges, and onboard services to earn more per passenger. The moment signals a culture problem where reliability issues and uneven results have eroded trust between frontline crews and the executive team.

Morgan Stanley paid its CEO $45 million.

Morgan Stanley lifted CEO Ted Pick’s pay package by 32% to $45 million after the bank delivered its strongest year yet, rewarding him for record profits and early moves to expand the franchise. The board set most of his bonus to vest over time, with three-quarters deferred across three years and all deferred incentives delivered as equity. Pick, who took over in early 2024 and later became chairman, also completed his first deal as chief executive by agreeing to buy EquityZen. The package signals the board wants him tied closely to long-term performance while keeping momentum from the bank’s recent growth areas.

Ford workers are getting a big bonus.

Ford is paying big bonuses to its workers, despite slumping profits. The automaker announced that it would pay 30% more than its targeted bonuses for roughly 75,000 salaried employees, with potential for individual performance adjustments. The bigger payout rewards employees for progress on vehicle quality improvements, using pay to reinforce a long-running push to cut recalls and warranty bills that dragged down pay. The automaker posted weaker profits last year from tariff-related costs, an aluminum supplier disruption, and steep losses in its electric vehicle and software unit.

Spotify achieved record user growth and expanded beyond music into books.

Spotify just posted one of its strongest quarters yet, powered by a surge in users and improving profitability. The streaming company added a record 38 million monthly active users in the final quarter of 2025, bringing its total audience to 751 million, while paid subscribers climbed to 290 million. Growth was fueled by its year-end Wrapped campaign and international subscribers. Spotify keeps diversifying its business to keep momentum in a competitive entertainment market. After expanding into podcasts, videos, and audiobooks, the company is now moving into physical book sales, letting users buy printed copies of audiobooks directly through its app.

Novo sued Hims & Hers to shut down online sellers of copycat weight loss treatments.

Novo Nordisk is escalating its fight against copycat weight-loss drugs by suing Hims & Hers, a tele-health company that sells medical treatments online and ships prescriptions directly to customers. Novo argues Hims & Hers is infringing on its US patent for the key ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic by offering compounded pills and injections that mimic its approved medicines and could put patient health at risk. At the center of this case is control over a booming obesity-drug market. The outcome could shape how aggressively drugmakers can use patents and regulators to defend their products.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - if you’re feeling overwhelmed by the news cycle lately, don’t worry. I’m essentially a professional news reader, using tech to consume news at an accelerated rate, and even I feel like I can’t keep up right now. And whether it’s AI advancements, political scandals, trade announcements, geopolitical conflict, protests, policing, or even just the friggin weather - every news alert feels like it’s a warning of the end of civilization.

But I resolved this year to work at finding positive perspectives. And the economy, at least, beneath the scary headlines, seems to be trending in a positive direction. Albeit very slowly and delicately, with plenty of things that could go wrong.

Welcome back to the weekly Scoops Spotlight, where we’ll serve up a little summary of the most important business and money news of the week with the company scoops that got the most community reactions.

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🌎 The Big Picture

The main thing people are freaking out about this week is AI. That’s not new, though, so if someone’s screaming market collapse, push the pause button and take a breath. Even the leading minds in AI can’t forecast what’s going to happen, and the people building the most advanced AI platforms are unleashing breakthroughs faster than they ever expected.

Change is scary. And the main thing happening right now is that this AI tech evolution, to anyone that’s paying close attention, is changing the way we see the world, our operating models, and ways of making money far more quickly than anyone can grasp.

The AI boom has been the main driving force behind the growth of the stock market over the past year or more, and truly much of the growth of the economy. Throughout the rally, investors have tried to wrap their minds around what’s happened, going through waves back and forth between “this is going to change everything and make everyone more money” to “this is a waste of money that won’t turn into value fast enough” to now, this week, more of a “this is too much money going into tech that will change everything quickly but not necessarily drive great profits for everyone.”

Google’s release of Gemini 3 at the end of the year, and then Anthropic’s following updates to Claude Code and Claude Cowork, started shifting investors from thinking that AI is a lift-all-boats kind of tech to recognizing that there will be winners and losers. Google stock has been crushing it because the main determinant of who can win will be who has enough cash flow to burn to maintain this pace of innovation. Google has one of the best cash machines in the world.

This week, investors really got nervous that AI isn’t just going to create winners, but that it could be an industry killer. The latest releases of AI agent tools had a shock factor at the level of ChatGPT’s original release. Fully autonomous agents built their own social media platform with hundreds of thousands of independently interacting agents. They built software in minutes, created religions, and many other scary and fun and exciting breakthrough examples that can easily be called over-hyped or exaggerated, but that showed everyone that the next wave of autonomous operations is here. Then, Anthropic released new tools that put its groundbreaking AI agents into legal and finance tools, showing how these things aren’t just fun side project tools, but that they could make white-collar jobs, from software creation to legal reviews to financial analysis, completely obsolete - not in 10 years. Now.

In combination with that, the biggest tech firms announce the most aggressive plans to invest in more AI this year - hundreds of billions of dollars pouring into this tech. Some of these companies have the money to do it sustainably, but some of them will be burning most of their cash flow.

On top of that, the latest jobs numbers pointed to a spike in layoffs and stalled hiring, adding to the narrative that “Big tech is burning a potentially unsustainable amount of cash for this new tech that may already be stalling hiring and spurring layoffs and could kill entire industries.”

So, obviously, the tech story is a little too aggressive. AI will accelerate and complement existing tech. The drama of the storyline has been emphasized by the market selloff this week, but the market was already near record highs, priced to perfection with massive optimism. This selloff could have happened this week without any of this news.

And the jobs market headlines are a little more about clickbait. Everyone knows hiring has stalled. There have been barely any net new jobs added in the last 6-12 months. There are plenty of arguments to make about why that’s happening, from general policy uncertainty, to lack of available talent, growing costs, and weather before you even get to AI. Initial unemployment claims did rise last week, but they have been historically low. And corporate layoff announcements were really high in January, but that was mainly driven by tens of thousands of job cut warnings from three companies: Amazon, UPS, and Dow. That likely says more about consolidation and the corporate policy shift from employee loyalty to perpetual prioritization of short-term profit maximization regardless of business health. Of course, job data is a backward-looking number, so there are warning signs in these reports, but not the ones implied by the headlines right now.

So what does all of this mean? Ride it out. The economy is doing pretty well, with many signs pointing to marginal improvements in costs, hiring, and business activity over the course of the year ahead.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Amazon is ramping up cloud investment while cutting corporate roles and grocery stores.

Amazon is pouring far more money into building computing capacity while trimming the parts of the business that have not paid off. Amazon’s cloud unit grew 24% in the quarter, strengthening the case for prioritizing data centers over slower experiments. The plans to invest $200 billion in 2026, mostly aimed at Amazon Web Services data centers and AI infrastructure. At the same time, the company is shrinking its corporate workforce again and exiting its Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go store formats, shifting some locations into Whole Foods instead. The tech giant plans to cut 16,000 corporate roles, bringing total announced white-collar job reductions to about 30,000 over the past three months. After a hiring surge during the pandemic, Amazon is refocusing on speed, accountability, and leaner teams.

Palantir accelerated revenue, deepening its reach into defense and business software.

Palantir accelerated its role as an AI operating partner for the US government and a fast-scaling software vendor for businesses last quarter. The data-analytics contractor grew fourth-quarter revenue 70% year over year to $1.41 billion, with US government revenue at $570 million and US commercial revenue at $507 million, showing strength on both sides of its core franchise. Palantir also set a much higher growth bar for 2026, targeting over $7 billion in annual revenue, thanks to projects like military mission-control system Maven. At the same time, its expanding work with Immigration and Customs Enforcement keeps the company in the spotlight, tying growth to heightened scrutiny around how its tools are used.

Southwest is reshaping seating by replacing open boarding with assigned seats.

Southwest Airlines is officially ending its 54-year open-seating tradition and moving to assigned seats for all passengers, making boarding feel more like other major US airlines. The shift is designed to give travelers more certainty and to create new ways to earn money for the carrier, like charging extra for preferred and extra-legroom seats that can cost more than $70 per flight segment. Plus-size travelers who need extra space are now required to buy additional seats upfront. These changes mean fewer surprises at boarding but higher upfront costs for some customers.

Novo Nordisk is launching Ozempic tablets in the U.S. this spring.

Novo Nordisk is simplifying diabetes care with FDA approval of an oral version of Ozempic. The pill delivers the same treatment without injections, making it easier for patients to start and stay on therapy while expanding access to a drug already widely recognized by doctors and insurers. By reducing barriers to treatment, the pill could bring more consistency to diabetes management and lower the risk of serious complications like heart attacks and strokes. By unifying its oral and injectable semaglutide options under one well-known brand, the drugmaker is trying to make prescribing and pharmacy conversations simpler while keeping patients on a familiar treatment path. Over time, that could ease pressure on employer health plans and insurance premiums, while strengthening Novo Nordisk’s position as a leader in the fast-growing metabolic and preventative care market.

Alphabet doubled down on AI spending as its cloud business gains ground.

Alphabet is pouring far more money into data centers, chips, and computing capacity to push AI deeper into its products and cloud business. The tech giant laid out a $175 billion to $185 billion capital spending plan for 2026 as it tries to meet rising cloud demand and improve search and advertising performance with AI-driven features. That push is showing up in cloud results, with revenue jumping nearly 48% and a growing backlog that reached $240 billion. At the same time, the company is trying to make the AI economics work by cutting Gemini serving unit costs 78% over 2025. Despite the heavier spending, Google maintained confidence in its ability to manage costs while continuing to invest for the future.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - the weeks seem like months these days, and somehow, we’re only just finishing our first month of 2026.

One win we had last week: finally found a decent trash bin that fits under our sink. IKEA to the rescue.

Did you know that IKEA names its products using an internal system where couches are places, beds are Norwegian locations, and rugs are named after Danish towns? It wasn’t a branding choice. It’s because the founder was dyslexic and had a hard time keeping track of product codes.

🌎 The Big Picture

Jerome Powell was the main character of the week. If you haven’t heard about the drama, it’s kind of fun. He’s the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and he’s locked in a public feud with President Trump, but he hasn’t been steamrolled like most people in these situations. He’s such a flagrantly no-nonsense nerdy dude that just won’t engage with public taunting, threats, criticisms, and legal intimidation, and is just laser-focused on the integrity of his work at the Fed.

The Federal Reserve is the United States’ central bank, responsible for keeping unemployment and inflation low. When the economy struggles, the Fed lowers interest rates to make borrowing cheaper, which encourages spending on mortgages, business loans, and more. When the economy overheats (high inflation), the Fed raises rates to pump the brakes. After the cost of living surged following the pandemic, the Fed raised borrowing costs to slow spending. Now that prices have calmed down, the Fed has begun cutting rates to find a more neutral level that doesn't overly restrict or stimulate the economy.

What we’re seeing now is the Fed trying to thread that needle of a perfect level for interest rates, making quarter-point adjustments to the baseline benchmark rate in response to trends in prices and unemployment. The Fed does NOT want to risk lowering rates and reaccelerating inflation.

BUT, the White House wants more stimulus, and has been trying to replace Powell to force the Fed to lower borrowing costs and get a booming marketing/spending/investment like 2021. Unfortunately for the White House, it doesn’t really have the legal authority to fire the Fed Chair, and Powell isn’t stepping down in the face of pressure. (Trump actually appointed Powell during his first term.)

However, Powell’s term is up in May, and President Trump just named his replacement. So there may be changes coming soon.

Besides Powell’s replacement, the headline this week from the Fed’s latest meeting was that policymakers don’t plan to make it cheaper to borrow anytime soon.

▶️ The Federal Reserve decided not to continue lowering baseline interest rates at its January meeting, keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, after cutting rates by 0.75% over the second half of 2025. Most other lending rates, from credit cards to car leases, are derived from this benchmark.

The Federal Reserve believes the economy started the year in decent shape. People are spending money, businesses are investing, and the job market looks stable enough that officials do not feel pressure to cut rates. At the same time, prices are still rising faster than they would like, which is why rates are staying where they are.

For businesses and households, this means interest rates may stay higher for longer, and relief on loan payments could take time.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Tesla is shifting from cars to software and robots.

Tesla announced a massive company transition, moving beyond just selling cars toward energy, software, and robotics. While vehicle sales tumbled 16% in the fourth quarter, Tesla still delivered more profit than expected, helped by growth in areas outside traditional auto sales. The fastest-growing segment, energy storage, grew 25% from a year ago, as demand for large-scale batteries continues to rise. Tesla plans to spend roughly $20 billion this year on new factories for AI and robotics, and will fund the ambitions by discontinuing its Model S and Model X vehicles, which have been on the market for over a decade and now represent a small and declining portion of sales.

Moderna is scaling back major vaccine testing after US government resistance.

Moderna, a company best known for its COVID-19 vaccine, is scaling back investment in new, late-stage vaccine trials after US health policies made vaccines less accessible. Company leaders say tighter rules, mixed safety messages, and fewer people being recommended for vaccines mean the US market is no longer big enough to justify expensive testing. Late-stage trials are the final and most costly step before a vaccine can be approved, and Moderna does not see a clear payoff anymore. Instead, the company plans to focus more on treatments for cancer and rare diseases, where government resistance is lower. The pullback follows layoffs, canceled projects, and the loss of large government contracts, showing how policy decisions can ripple through the economy and reshape entire industries.

President Trump is suing JPMorgan Chase for cutting access to accounts over politics.

A fight over bank accounts just turned into a fight over who controls access to money in America. President Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, accusing the bank of closing his businesses’ accounts in 2021 for political reasons after the January 6 Capitol riot. At the core of the lawsuit is a sharp disagreement over motive. Trump argues his accounts were closed because of his political views, while JPMorgan insists the decision was strictly about legal and regulatory risk. If a court determines politics played a role, it could force America's biggest bank to rethink how it manages risk.

TikTok secured its ability to operate in the US by partnering with Oracle.

After years of political tension and repeated ban threats, TikTok has finally secured a path to legally operate in the United States under the moderation of Oracle. The company formed a new entity, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, that places most ownership and control in American hands while sharply limiting China-based ByteDance’s role. Tech giant Oracle and several other investors will manage the venture, with Oracle serving as the trusted security partner who will audit content moderation and refine a secure US version of TikTok’s algorithm. This move gives Oracle far more influence over American media and strengthens its credibility as a major cloud provider.

Bank of America is sharing $1 billion in stock with employees.

Bank of America announced it will award $1 billion in company stock to most of its employees, continuing a profit-sharing tradition that now spans nine years. Nearly all workers below senior management will receive stock, allowing them to benefit directly when the bank performs well. The move follows a strong year for the company and brings total employee stock awards since 2017 to almost $6.8 billion. Alongside these awards, the bank has raised its minimum hourly wage to $25 and expanded hiring efforts across the US. Together, these steps show how one of the country’s largest banks is using profits to reward workers and strengthen its long-term workforce, while signaling belief in a stable, forward-moving US economy.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.

Hey {{ first name | friends}} - you made it through the first short week of the year. My wife and I just welcomed our first kid this week. So, it’s been a particularly wild one.

🌎 The Big Picture

In case you missed it, the big shakeup of the week was President Trump launching and then de-escalating a new global trade war in a matter of a few days.

1️⃣ The stock market had its worst day since October on Tuesday, erasing all the gains since the start of the year, as investors worried that the White House’s pursuit of Greenland would re-escalate a pacified global trade war.

On Saturday, President Trump threatened 10-25% tariffs on imports from eight European allies for not backing the US bid to acquire Greenland. The president also threatened to triple the cost of imported French wines and champagne, amid reports that France’s president was unwilling to join his Board of Peace diplomatic initiative.

2️⃣ The market climbed back on Wednesday as investors celebrated a quick defusing of global trade tensions. While details are still limited, President Trump announced that early negotiations with NATO and European officials have been productive enough for him to indefinitely postpone the new tariffs on European countries threatened for February 1st. The fast relief helps to avoid more drawn-out uncertainty around international trade costs that strained businesses throughout much of 2025.

Beyond that manufactured crisis that mostly just stirred up markets, we got some positive updates for anyone trying to buy or sell a home.

✅ Home buyers may soon face less competition in the market.

The White House is taking direct aim at Wall Street’s growing presence in America’s neighborhoods. A new executive order limits large institutional investors from buying single-family homes that could otherwise be purchased by families, especially first-time buyers. Federal housing agencies are being instructed to prioritize owner-occupants, restrict investor access through government-backed programs, and give individuals “first-look” opportunities on foreclosed homes before big investors step in.

Under the hood, the move is about affordability and supply. While institutional investors own only about 3% of single-family rental homes nationwide, their buying power is often concentrated in specific markets, where they can crowd out families and push prices higher. The administration is trying to slow investor-driven competition and keep more homes in the hands of people who plan to live in them. The broader goal is to stabilize housing costs, support household wealth building, and ease one of the biggest financial strains facing American families.

✅ More new homes are hitting the market, helping make houses more affordable.

New data from the Commerce Department shows sales of newly built single-family homes in October were nearly 19% higher than a year ago, reflecting a steep pickup in home purchasing over the past year as mortgage costs have trended lower. Builders now have more homes sitting on the market than at any point in the last few years.

That growing inventory of houses is finally helping bring prices down. The median price of a new home fell more than 3% from September to October, now down over 8% from last year, as builders lean on discounts and incentives to attract buyers. While mortgage rates are still nearly twice the cost of a few years ago, monthly mortgage payments have gotten cheaper this year as interest rates drifted from recent highs, helping encourage more buyers to get off the sidelines.

✅ The real estate market is starting to pick up, good news for anyone looking to sell or buy.

Home sales activity jumped at the end of the year as mortgage costs dropped. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing-home sales jumped 5.1% last month, marking the most active December in nearly three years as slightly lower mortgage rates pulled some buyers back into the housing market. Prices of existing homes aren’t climbing as quickly. The median price of an existing home at $405,400, still higher than a year ago but down over 6% from peak prices last summer.

The supply of existing homes for sale remains much lower than usual, leaving buyers with limited options and keeping prices from falling much. Home resales make up most of the supply, and most homeowners have locked in low-rate mortgages and continue to hold onto their properties rather than sell and give up their cheaper rates. If mortgage costs continue to drift lower, prospective home buyers might see more homes come up for sale.

🏭 The Companies Everyone’s Talking About

Microsoft promised to shield local communities from higher electricity bills from its data center expansion.

Microsoft is stepping in to calm growing concerns about massive data centers pushing up electricity and water costs. As the company builds more facilities to support cloud services and artificial intelligence, it says it will cover the full cost of the extra power infrastructure instead of passing those expenses to households. That includes paying higher utility rates and signing long-term agreements so power companies can safely expand the grid. Microsoft also pledged to put more water back into local systems than its data centers use and to avoid seeking local tax breaks. The commitments come as energy bills rise nationwide and communities increasingly push back against data center projects, turning power costs into a political issue.

Netflix just hit a new subscriber milestone while expanding ads and vying for Warner Bros.

Netflix’s latest results show that consumer demand is solid. The company benefited from steady subscriber engagement and strong advertising momentum, reinforcing that Netflix's streaming content remains a priority for households, even in a higher-cost environment. Management emphasized that viewers are still willing to pay for content they value, signaling resilience in consumer spending. Under the hood, Netflix is navigating a more mature streaming market where growth is steadier rather than explosive. Profitability pressures from content costs and competition remain, but the company continues to see opportunity in its ad-supported tier and global audience expansion. Also, Netflix announced they now have plans to acquire assets from Warner Bros via an all-cash deal. This move signals confidence in Netflix's financials and a push to deepen its content library as competition intensifies.

Amazon is testing whether physical retail can become its next growth engine.

Amazon is planning its largest-ever physical retail store, a massive big-box location outside Chicago that would rival the size of a Walmart Supercenter. On the surface, it looks like a grocery-and-essentials play. However, it’s a strategic acknowledgment that while Amazon dominates online shopping, most consumer spending still happens in physical stores, and that’s where Amazon’s growth has lagged. After years of smaller experiments like Amazon Go, bookstores, and mall kiosks, many of which were eventually scrapped, this move signals a shift in thinking. With online retail growth slowing and most revenue gains now coming from cloud and advertising, implementing physical retail could unlock Amazon’s next phase of consumer expansion.

Spotify raised U.S. Premium prices again as it focuses on long-term profitability.

Spotify is asking US users to pay more once again, lifting its Premium price to $12.99 a month, up 30% in just 2.5 years. The steady price hikes reflect a bigger shift inside the company: Spotify is no longer chasing growth at any cost and is instead focused on making consistent profits. Music streaming has matured, so Spotify has widened its offering with podcasts, audiobooks, music videos, and artificial intelligence tools that personalize listening and recommendations. These additions give Spotify reasons to charge more while keeping users engaged inside one app. With one of the most loyal subscriber bases in streaming, Spotify is betting customers will accept higher prices in exchange for a broader audio experience.

Procter & Gamble's sales have slowed as U.S. shoppers cut back on everyday essentials.

Procter & Gamble is feeling the strain of cautious U.S. consumers. In its latest quarter, sales increased about 1%, but that was slower than expected because shoppers bought less detergent, toilet paper, and other household basics. Overall product sales volumes slipped roughly 1%, showing that higher prices are no longer enough to fully mask declining customer purchases. Beauty was the clear exception, with sales volumes growing about 3% as customers continued to spend on hair and skin care even while cutting back elsewhere. A recent U.S. government shutdown and ongoing cost increases added to the spending slowdown, especially for lower-income households. Despite the mixed results, P&G kept its full-year profit forecast the same, signaling confidence it can steady performance as conditions improve later in the year.

❔ The Big Question of the Week

Scoops app users: We have taken the beta app offline for a short period for some major updates. Can’t wait to show you all what we’ve been working on! Reach out if you have any questions.

We’re going to switch up the content in this spotlight for a bit to make sure you all have the info you need to master your week.