Howie Town

We Are In Rare Air as FOMO Rages And Cash Piles Up ...Enjoy It While It Lasts

Howard Lindzon — Wed, 13 May 2026 12:38:47 +0000

As a reminder, MarketSurge (by Investor’s Business Daily) is a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from MarketSurge. They are offering my readers 2 months for $59.95 - save $239. That's 80% off the most powerful stock research platform for individual investors.

I am headed back to New York from Italy.

My good friend Brett Wilson coordinated an amazing group of friends for this trip and we had so many laughs, so much to eat and drink and got to talk a lot about family, business and the future. Brett and his partner John were early to invest in AI with their first fund Swift Ventures (2021) which our Social Leverage emerging manager fund invested in.

To the markets…

I had Ivanhoff do this weeks show on his own (which you can see below). He nails the ‘rare air’ the semiconductor/ai stocks find themselves…

Bull markets tend to correct through sector rotations. When one leading group pulls back, others step up and break out. This one is not any different. When semiconductors took a breather last week, software stocks rallied. Breather is the correct word because the dips in semis are quick and shallow before they make new all-time highs. SMH is currently trading at 11 times its average true range from its 50-day moving average, which has never happened before. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is at 10x its ATR from its 50dma. Needless to say, both are extremely extended, and a consolidation through time or price would not be a big surprise. It is actually something that way too many are anticipating and trying to front-run but so far with little success.
It seems the market has started to differentiate between software stocks that can benefit from AI and those that are likely to get their margin squeezed. The previous week, we saw TWLO gapping up. Last week was strong for t, DDOG, FTNT, CRWD, etc. The bull market remains strong, and it is expanding. We know that nothing can go up every week forever, and there will be shakeouts. They are a normal part of any cycle.

If you ask someone stuck in social media or the news cycle about the world or economy…they will likely tell you that it could NOT get any worse. If you ask them about AI and technology stocks they will shout ‘bubble’.

If you ask me about the world or the economy I will always tell you I don’t know. I feel lucky to have been born when and where I was and to be living this life. If you ask me today about the markets - specifically semiconductors/ai I would tell you that it could not get much better and ‘enjoy it while it lasts’.

I will dive a little deeper than Ivanhoff with some charts to try and best explain this rare air we find ourselves investing in. First off, I remain incredibly bullish on the opportunities in both AI and The Degenerate Economy. I have long had my money where my mouth is on these trends and here is the updated positions of my index:

Yes I hold too much cash and have been too conservative since the index inception 3 years ago, but cash still pays 4 percent in this market and I am 60 years old. Also my cash did better than Cathie Wood who for some reason people pay to pick stocks and beat the market. Cathie is the Twitter of money managers.

I have also continued to widely beat the Nasdaq 100 over the last three years despite an average of 10 plus percent in cash since the index was created. The CBOE $CBOE ( ▲ 1.21% ) remains at the center of the degenerate economy and been hoitting regular all-time highs and now ‘vape and pouch king’ Philip Morris $PM ( ▼ 1.17% ) looks ready for all-time highs. I will likely add a few software stocks that have sold off in the SAASpocalypse for the wrong reasons over the next few weeks. The smoke is starting to clear.

Ok so what am I worried about here?

I worry most about the FOMO going on.

I can’t measure it other than the price action in the charts.

A few charts I shared on Stocktwits the last few days - check my full stream here …

The semis are starting to have a 1999 feel…

The semiconductor stocks are very stretched from their 200 day moving average…

Also…almost NOBODY fears a recession at the moment…

While fear is falling and FOMO is rising…things that worry me, cash on the sidelines hit $8.2 trillion which is a record. That is fuel for ‘buy the dips’ and further FOMO buying.

I have NO idea what is on page 10 and headed to page one that would derail this market and in the meantime, the money keeps further concentrating in the big 10 AI companies.

Twitter tweet

The obvious market killer would be a Nvidia miss, but it is hard to bet on when that happens. In the meantime, even Goldman Sachs is a little nervous about the semiconductor sector.

Twitter tweet

I am digesting all this for now.

Have a great rest of the day and see Ivanhoff’s video below.

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

Market Overview and AI Infrastructure Strength
Massive Earnings Growth in Semis & Memory Chips
The Software Sector Shift: Winners vs. Losers
Cybersecurity and Valuation Challenges
Mega Cap Performance & Buying Opportunities
Crypto Lag and Energy/Miner Pivots to AI

In This Episode, We Cover:

Market Overview and AI Infrastructure Strength (0:00)
Massive Earnings Growth in Semis & Memory Chips (1:48)
The Software Sector Shift: Winners vs. Losers (3:43)
Cybersecurity and Valuation Challenges (6:15)
Mega Cap Performance & Buying Opportunities (8:06)
Crypto Lag and Energy/Miner Pivots to AI (8:58)

And here are the charts discussed:

What A Week...Masters In Business Podcast, The Memory Chip Supercycle, 1999 Internet Vibes, Meeting Tim Dillon and Back on My Bike in Tuscany

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 10 May 2026 21:38:45 +0000

Before I get started…

Happy Mother’s Day to the four moms that read me here including my wife Ellen. Mom’s rule.

Last week in New York, my friend Barry Ritholtz had me back on his hugely popular and long running Masters In Business Podcast. We had a blast. Barry let me riff for 90 minutes in his amazing Bloomberg studio. We covered a lot of ground on my past and the future of the ‘Degenerate Economy’ and why the public markets are more fun, interesting and offer more opportunity than the private markets. Sadly, Bloomberg cut out our running ‘whale’s vagina’ references that came up as we chatted about life in San Diego. I hope you watch…

Onward…

Good evening from Tuscany…

Is it 1999?

I was sitting in my favorite spot at my friend Xenia’s place on Friday as the markets closed and of all things had this thought…

Twitter tweet

The semiconductor run of the last year - up 172 percent the last 12 months - is making me think of the 1999 internet boom and the Nasdaq bubble that soon popped.

In hindsight, this boom is of course obvious. We are in the midst of a memory chip explosion in demand. Have a look at this chart and explainer from Fiscal.ai (subscribe to their greet weekly newsletter):

Let me try and save you a lot of ‘agita’ (yiddush for anxiety) about how to think about what to do next if you are long semiconductors ( I have been long $SMH ( ▼ 3.8% ) ). Have a look at what my friend Cullen Roche (a fellow whales’ vagina resident) laid out below…

Based on my 172 percent gain the last 12 months I am fine with 8.2 percent a year from this point - if Monday were to be the top. I doubt the inevitable semiconductor crash ahead will be 1999 in scope and over the last few weeks I have sold a little just in case.

Next up…

The markets do not care where I am and they certainly don’t care about any of our feelings at the moment.

The Koyfin.com team (amazing product and we are investors) shared this excellent chart this morning which has really got my attention…

I have said it here often here over the years that the markets climb a wall of worry and the markets don’t care about your feelings.

A new twist on these long time sentiments is also at play…

Since social media became mainstream and even more so since the ‘algo’ driven feeds, the markets are also likely to climb a ‘wall of misery’.

The AI and Degenerate Economy booms are so big right now that a small group of companies are able to carry the markets to high after high no matter how bad we feel about the economy, each other and the future.

I am back on the bike…

I am in Tuscany at the moment and got back on my bike for the first time since my finger accident. It has been a tough six weeks trying to let the finger heal and stabilize. My friend John Hughes hit the hills with me the last two days. John is a good friend, an amazing rider, incredible founder (Tubemogul) and now venture capitalist.

Finally…

I got to meet Tim Diillon last week after seeing him live. My friend Danny took me to the Patrice O’Neal benefit conference. It was a murderers row of comics that took the stage. Back to back I saw Tim Dillon, Bill Burr, Dave Attell and Jordan Jensen.

I grabbed a photo with Tim and Jordan afterwards…

Have a great rest of the weekend.

Three Years Of My Degenerate Economy Index... Thanks To AI and Prediction Markets We Are All More Productive and Degenerate Now

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 03 May 2026 12:15:32 +0000

Good morning everyone…

I have been in New York City all week working. And eating. I have not been in a writing mood because of my mangeled index finger. While it is definitely healing and quite a miracle, time seems to be standing still on the finger being useful and not getting in the way.

Tomorrow eve is the Cashtag Awards at The NYSE and I am looking forward to that. It will be a fun night of awards recognizing the best of the Stocktwits and Fintwit community. We will also be showing off some of the new Stocktwits products.

Onward…

My ‘degenerate economy index’ is turning three years old (you can follow along here). It is up 170 percent versus the Nasdaq 100’s 94 percent.

Google, Apple, the semiconductor index, Philip Morris, CBOE, CME, Intercontinental Exchange and Axon have been in the index from day one.

The newest additions to the index are Dutch Brothers (has been in the index once before), Amazon (end of last year), Hyperliquid Strategies and Clear Secure (it has already doubled since I added last year).

For the last year I have been concerned that the degenerate economy has too much supply and so my cash position has been high. Of course all my cash should have been in Google 😀 .

I have made a lot of mistakes of omission and commission the last three years but the end results are plenty good. I get asked all the time to set up the index as a paid or fee based product, but I am glad to have kept it free to copy and follow.

The biggest changes in the world since I started the index (not including politics and war) has been the proliferation of prediction markets and Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI has been a tailwind for technology and the prediction markets have sped us to a ‘we are all degenerates now’ era.

Let’s dive into the staggering AI numbers…

Consumer and enterprise AI demand has been off the charts. So much so that Google has added nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization in the last 30 days!

How? Why?

The must read newsletter from portfolio company Fiscal.ai breaks it down with a great explanation and charts…

Let’s give an example: In 2023, Duolingo introduced a new premium tier called Duolingo $DUOL ( ▲ 2.66% ) Max. The tier includes a feature called “explain my answer” that can audibly articulate to a user why their answer was wrong, much like a human teacher.
Underneath the hood, every time a subscriber taps that “explain my answer” button, Duolingo is spending less than one-tenth of a cent to ping OpenAI’s latest models for an answer.
If we take this analogy further downstream, in order to provide the best possible service to Duolingo, OpenAI has to continuously train its models. To do that, OpenAI partners with a public cloud provider like Microsoft Azure and buys compute capacity. To be more specific, OpenAI is renting the capacity of a bunch of AI-optimized servers loaded with semiconductors probably in some datacenter in the suburbs of DC. (Fun fact: 70% of internet traffic passes through a DC suburb called Loudoun County)
This is one example of an enterprise AI application. But if you zoom out, pretty much every company in the world is coming up with their own applications for AI. And this is, unsurprisingly, leading to a jaw-dropping number of orders for the public cloud vendors.

Big tech reported earnings this week, and one metric in particular stood out: Backlog.
Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud (aka “The Hyperscalers”) now have nearly $1.5 trillion in combined customer commitments. They have added $701 billion in new commitments over the last 6 months alone!
To be clear, these are not empty promises. In order to be counted as remaining performance obligations in an SEC filing, the commitments have to be “contractually binding and non-cancellable”.
While the duration of these commitments can be quite long (Anthropic recently signed a deal to spend $100 billion with AWS over the next 10 years), the Hyperscalers are still seeing accelerating growth in the short term as well.
In fact, each of the cloud providers reported an acceleration in revenue growth from Q4 to Q1.

Like I said earlier…all my extra cash should have been in $GOOG ( ▼ 0.97% ) 😀 !

As for prediction markets, the interest is also staggering…

Booming productivity coupled with booming degeneracy is quite the economic cocktail!

Where AI productivity and degeneracy meet is media and ‘entertainment’.

This Marco Rubio AI clip series from Charles Curran is hysterical…

Twitter tweet

We are in the very early days of this new world.

Have a great Sunday.

Momentum Monday - Dot Com 2.0 - The AI Edition...SpaceX, Anthropic and Open AI IPO or Death!

Howard Lindzon — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 14:58:16 +0000

Good morning…

The animal spirits have kicked into the AI and semiconductor stocks. This is now a FOMO (fear of missing out chase) which I covered yesterday.

The largest companies in the world, our government and the banks are all in on making sure Anthropic, SpaceX and Open AI get public this year. If they do, Scott Galloway has the chart below, the three IPO’s will dwarf the value of ALL the internet bubble IPO’s from 1999.

These three IPO’s would equal $4 trillion of market value and together (as of today) have ZERO profits.

We are all degenerates now.

These IPO’s will not happen if tech stocks are falling. It should be a wild few months as the S1’s of these three companies circulate. It is hard to bet against a Kabal of the tech oligarchs, the banks and the US government.

In fact, it makes perfect sense that software stocks are falling because that $1 trillion of losses in software helps sell the story of AI. Anthropic’s CEO continues to shout that software engineers are today’s telephone switchboard operators.

Ivanhoff and I tour the markets as usual looking at how this momentum is shaping up. Please enjoy and subscribe to get the videos when we drop them on Sundays…and Ivanhoff’s thoughts are below the video as always…

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

V-Shape Recovery and Market Sentiment
Macro Drivers: Oil and Geopolitics
AI Productivity and Software Trends
Big Tech: $AMZN ( ▼ 1.15% ) and $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) Breakouts
Retail and Restaurant Sector Weakness
High-Margin Digital Companies

In This Episode, We Cover:

V-Shape Recovery and Market Sentiment (0:00)
Macro Drivers: Oil and Geopolitics (1:52)
AI Productivity and Software Trends (3:04)
Big Tech: $AMZN ( ▼ 1.15% ) and $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) Breakouts (5:56)
Retail and Restaurant Sector Weakness (7:31)
High-Margin Digital Companies (9:23)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

It is a bull market. Even the tiniest dips are getting bought. Everything is very extended, especially semis, but they are not really pulling back yet. Earnings keep coming hot and, in a way, justifying the chase. TXN, INTC, LRCX crushed estimates and guided higher again, foreshadowing that any other semiconductor company will probably do the same. ARM and AMD area already at new all-time highs after gaining 50% in a couple of weeks. Even the slower-moving NVDA broke out. The market is not waiting. It only needs a small hint and is quick to price the expected future. The beginning of a move is always based on fundamentals. But the last one-third to one-half of a momentum move is pure speculation driven by fear of missing out and short squeezes.
I know semis might seem invincible right now, but keep in mind that nothing goes straight up. Even the strongest stocks regularly test their rising 10, 20, and 50dma as we saw with the aerospace group last week. Most semis are currently so extended that a normal test of their 20EMA would mean a 20-30% pullback.
In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, and the US doesn’t seem closer to a peace deal with Iran. Crude oil has begun to perk up. If anything can scare market speculators right now, it is another spike in crude oil and escalation in the Middle East.

And here are the charts discussed:

What Comes After The 'Stone Age' Rally? More AI, More Grift, More Degenerate Economy.

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 15:23:47 +0000

Good morning everyone…

I have a few VIP passes for the May 4 Cashtag Awards (see above) for my readers here, so hit me up if you want to attend.

Before I get started on the markets, AI and the grift…

I love this chart from the A16z newsletter titled Railroad GPT. We have been here (AI boom/bubble) before. And, as you think about shorting Amazon, Google, Nvidia and the internet leaders of today, know that Union Pacific and CSX railroads are at all-time highs right now 150 years later!

Onward, to the markets…

On April 6th here in my newsletter, I speculated there could be a ‘stone age’ rally.

Missile to my head…I think the next big move up or down will be a doozie, so I am just trying to see the red or green of their eyes before I make any major decisions.

The ‘greens’ showed up, specifically AI related stocks and semiconductors.

I missed one big clue a rally was coming. A week earlier, as Trump was threatening Iran with annihilation, Open AI confirmed they had finally circled nearly $100 billion (there is a lot of fine print associated with the raise).

That day, I speculated (follow me on Stocktwits for these real time notes and ideas) that Softbank $SFTBY ( ▼ 3.73% ) was the stock to watch. I follow it as a proxy for Open AI because they are the public company most levered to it’s need to IPO. Unfortunately for me, I just kept an eye, I didn’t buy because you know…’annihilation’. It is up 60 percent in the three weeks since. Woops…

Not to worry, I have had a hot hand in the markets since the war started. I have been sharing my trades/investments as always on Stocktwits and you can easily follow along.

The momentum community is having a field day off our ‘trending ticker’ screens. In the last week, I followed a group of our users into $POET ( ▼ 22.36% ) (AI related) and it has doubled. I sold some Friday.

Stocks are not supposed to double in a week in case you did not know 😀 .

This two week ‘stone age’ rally has been spectacular. Semiconductor stocks (I own the $SMH ( ▼ 3.8% ) ) have had their best month EVER.

By Friday, investors were chasing stocks…

Humans chase stocks like dogs chase bones. I have been guilty of that myself over the the last 40 years, but much less so since I started journalling here almost 20 years ago.

When silly stuff like this happens in my favor, I get the heebiie jeebies!

Yesterday, Joe Weisenthal shared a funny chart (fake) of the semiconductor index going forward…

Twitter tweet

Most Americans are not following along this closely. Most Americans that invest, index. Thank goodness because that means they own some semiconductor stocks. But, based on last weeks surge in semiconductor stocks, it looks like they have FOMO and the chase is on.

Unfortunately, the ‘degenerate economy’ is very aware of the day to day fluctuations and the disease of ‘get rich quick’ is spreading fast.

This short essay by Nic Carter titled ‘Prediction markets have an inescapable insider trading problem’ highlights the current state of betting and degeneracy.

Trump, the man leading the wold in grift and casino expansion… and the man winking as his sons ‘advise’ both Polymarket and Kalshi in the betting arms race said the quiet part out loud…

The grift inside The White House and the Trump family continues unabated..this week Eric milked some more favors…

Twitter tweet

Every week I share a few signs that the ‘degeneracy apocalypse’ is upon us. This weeks…

Twitter tweet

The ETF arms dealers have created and the SEC has blessed these ridiculous three times levered single stock and ETF products.

As people chase AI, semiconductor and energy stocks related to AI, one thing to remember, is a growing amount of the country is pissed off about all of this ‘growth’. Not quite page 10 yet news is that an AI data center moratorium has an 85 percent chance of passing this year - according to Polymarket.

If this moves closer to ‘page 1’ news, we could see a nasty selloff in AI related stocks.

In the meantime, as I like to say, know your field position!

Finally…

Let me end with some good reads and watches….

I enjoyed the Rory documentary on Amazon Prime.

I also enjoyed the Peter Crouch documentary, I had no idea who he was, on Amazon Prime.

Software Ate The World - Charts of the Week from A16z…was very good.

Long Term Money from Morgan Housel.

‘Be Retar**d To Win At Life’ by Elisha Long is enlightening and funny. I sent to my kids.

Have a great Sunday.

MCP For Everything ...Practical AI Use Cases at Social Leverage

Howard Lindzon — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 18:07:29 +0000

Good morning everyone…

Our seed investing firm Social Leverage has been using AI to automate as much of our day to day lives running the business - deal sourcing, diligence, investing and reporting.

We take pride in being a lean operation. We want to stick to our very successful investment style over 6 funds, with over $300 million under management, and nearly 14 years together (for Tom and I It is 20 years).

Matt and Gary have been leading the charge with this work along with Ethan Berk our analyst.

I wanted to share our AI-native tech stack as it stands today (see below). What is so fantastic about what they built is that the systems are going to get exponentially better. One huge edge for us is our stack is built with a few of our portfolio companies including Koyfin.com, Fiscal.ai, and Ribbon.ai.

Ultimately, our success as a firm is about DPI (returning capital to our partners), not our tools and systems. We need to find great founders who build great businesses. I am confident that this AI stack will help us see and analyze more companies and these systems can be used by our portfolio companies to accelerate all aspects of their business.

My partner Matt is a data geek at heart so we are lucky that he is down the rabbit hole working with all the new AI products and the MCP’s. What is an MCP?

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) is an open-source standard created by Anthropic that allows AI models to seamlessly connect with external data sources, tools, and software applications. It acts as a universal "USB-C port" for AI, enabling models like Claude to interact with databases, files, and APIs (e.g., Slack, GitHub) to provide context-aware, actionable intelligence.

Matt writes his own newsletter (follow along here), but here are more details on how he built our AI stack…

I've started to go all in on the MCP with Claude by Anthropic. I was a ChatGPT for everything guy, but over the last few weeks, I have gone all in with Claude. It makes you feel more and more like every true owner of data or a platform that is recording your workflows should have an MCP plugin within Claude.

For Social Leverage, we are now all in using Beehiv, Fiscal, and connecting our Affinity CRM, which doesn't have an official plugin; but I was able to set it up by editing my config and I also connected my Gmail and Granola. Now that I am all in on the MCP, I feel like creating skills within Claude is endless. I’ll start to incorporate Carbon Arc as well since they have access to endless unique data assets, which is helpful for insights into markets, KPI forecasts, and understanding company performance.

Skills, which I have started building in Claude, give you the ability to automate so many of the things that were multi-step processes in the past. For Social Leverage, we use the Beehiv newsletter platform for our monthly updates for all of our LPs and our broader network as well as potential future LPs. I can now connect Beehiiv to Claude and create skills to analyze stats on our monthly outreach to better coordinate follow up meetings. Of course I will let Blockit.ai schedule those follow up meetings.

For my investment memos, we have connected our CRM, Granola, & Fiscal.ai so that the investment memos can be automated and also pull the latest market comps with charts from Fiscal.

When I worked at Third Point, I always wanted to build an AI assistant that I could talk to about what I should be reading, what’s relevant in the markets compared to my recent meetings and historical investments, ask it what I should be focusing on, and connect it to our internal research management system along with the latest public markets data. Now with Claude, all this is possible. I can use Claude and ask it to tell me, based on all the Data as a Service companies I have taken meetings with over the last 6 months, what have been some current themes, why we have passed, and why we haven’t been excited about any DaaS companies. Now compare that to wealth tech companies which we have invested in, in Fund V, such as Syntheticfi.com or GetLea.io, or a few others we are close to investing in. What were the key differences?

The capabilities are endless, and it feels like the only thing holding you back is your creativity. If you can ask the question or dream up the capability or product, chances are it is possible! Socia Leverage doesn’t consider itself an AI fund or a fund that uses technology for deal sourcing, but given the partners’ backgrounds, we are now deep into using AI and building our own tools to make ourselves 10x more efficient. Using these tools also gives us an edge as we understand the pain points, limitations, and I can now relate to founders who have a slow computer because they are running a million agents and processes, because my machine is now sooooooo slowwwww!

Momentum Monday - All-Time Highs, Memory Growth and Why Prices Are The Best Source of Truth

Howard Lindzon — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:36:29 +0000

Good morning…

The war, excursion, foray with Iran is the headline, but the markets are looking past whatever Trump, Iran and the media are labelling it. The buyers are looking past higher rates, inflation and higher oil prices as well. Will that continue?

I do not know. For now, the semiconductors Apple, Google and the memory products are pulling the market higher. Space is working too and now that Amazon has offered to buy Globalstar, the space race becomes more real.

From the strong price action in these leaders it seems the only thing that will derail the markets is China messing with Taiwan.

The most interesting change in technology is the emergence of ‘memory’ and ‘storage’ as growth leaders. When I first learned to invest and trade in the 1990’s, semiconductor stocks and memory stocks were considered cyclical. Along came the internet and by the early 2000’s, many more semiconductor stocks became growth stocks and the $SMH ( ▼ 3.8% ) (semiconductor ETF) has now long outperformed the $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) . Today, Micron and Sandisk, Western Digital and the whole Taiwanese economy is in a raging bull market.

If I were to form fit the narrative at this point, if this trend continues the media will catch on to the idea that this new era of machines and agents is fuel for the endless demand of memory, human beings be damned.

Have a look at the profit profile below…I do not recall any prediction that had Micron having this kind of success. This is why I continue to follow price as my source of truth when I scan the markets every day.

As always, Ivanhoff and I tour the markets looking at the trends and sharing some fresh ideas.

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

Market Indices and $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) Analysis
Macro Drivers: Oil and Treasury Yields
Software Sector Distribution and Tech ETF
Infrastructure and Space Sector Momentum
Big Tech: $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) , $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.07% ) , and $TSM ( ▼ 3.2% )
Fintech Outlook: $HOOD ( ▼ 4.41% ) and Financials

In This Episode, We Cover:

Market Indices and $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) Analysis (0:00)
Macro Drivers: Oil and Treasury Yields (2:39)
Software Sector Distribution and Tech ETF (3:23)
Infrastructure and Space Sector Momentum (5:42)
Big Tech: $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) , $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.07% ) , and $TSM ( ▼ 3.2% ) (7:43)
Fintech Outlook: $HOOD ( ▼ 4.41% ) and Financials (18:18)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

The US indexes just had their fastest V-shaped recovery in recorded history – it took only eleven days to go from being oversold under their 200-day moving average to a new all-time high. Granted, the correction wasn’t very deep, but the sheer velocity of sentiment change has been epic. There was a lot of bearishness and talk about stagflation two weeks ago. Now, we have a major FOMO (fear of missing out). There are many underinvested managers and traders, so every dip is likely to be bought aggressively. Obviously, this doesn’t mean that we won’t see shakeouts and sector rotations. The market never makes it obvious or easy.
Today’s market has become much faster. What used to play over months now happens in weeks. The collective access to more and timely information, to working strategies, has accelerated everything. We already saw the typical stages of a recovery. First AI infrastructure stocks (mostly fiber optics and semis) showed relative strength by staying near their all-time highs while the indexes were under their 200-day moving averages. They led the market higher. Then the bounce spread over more stocks – the lagging megacaps recovered at an impressive pace. Even the highly-shorted stocks with questionable fundamentals started to outperform, which typically happens later in a new rally.
The ceasefire end date is April 22nd. There is a possibility that if both sides don’t reach an agreement, we might see an escalation. Under such a scenario, oil prices will rally, and most equities will pull back. This is the dream scenario for everyone underinvested. If such a dip happens, it will be bought. The market has already shown politicians what will happen if there’s peace in the Middle East and what will happen if the negotiations fail. By doing it, it has essentially created or at least influenced its own future.

And here are the charts discussed:

The 'Cashtag' Is Exploding in Popularity and Social Investing is Accelerating...What's Next?

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 15:45:44 +0000

Good morning everyone…

Social Investing is accelerating. Just in time for me as I received my trademark for ‘The Degenerate Economy’.

Also, just in time for the second annual Cashtag Awards on May 4. Our awards have never been about the best of ‘Stocktwits’ alone. Vlad at Robinhood won the ‘Castag Legend’ award last year and this year we have categories for product and people that rely on the whole social web.

Back in 2007, I sent the first ‘cashtag’ on Twitter to Fred Wilson from my Blackberry to his. Fred was the early investor in Twitter. He thought it was genius and soon after I started Stocktwits. The longer version of the origin story is here.

In the last week (19 years later), both Twitter and Robinhood have embraced the ‘cashtag’ ($). Here is Nikita with the Twitter announcement…

Twitter tweet

Here is Robinhood…

Having the giants Twitter and Robinhood embrace the cashtag, and ‘social trading and investing’ is not solely about ‘competition’. Stocktwits has long dealt with competition for users, distribution and attention. This is about rapid TAM (total addressable market) expansion. We are thrilled about this at Stocktwits.

Of course some of our users will use Twitter and Robinhood, but the millions of new users that Twitter and Robinhood will bring into the cashtag and social investing world will come try Stocktwits as well.

We have been preparing for this at Stocktwits for the last few years. Here are four posts I have shared over this time outlining how we leaned into this future with our ‘Stocktwits Everywhere’ focus…

Over the next 90 days, a brand new Stocktwits is being launched. Our everyday users are starting to notice it, but the ticker pages, the ‘for you’ stream, the onboarding, the profile pages, the message box, the search and the data - have been reimagined for the community with a modern infrastructure and API’s, that will better reward the contributors and the passive lurkers with idea generation, decision making and publishing. Every part of the platform will be more social and have AI infused capabilities.

As both a CEO and venture investor I am witnessing first hand both the AI headwinds and tailwinds for founders and their companies. The internet is being consumed by AI. The internet is just a data source for the machine led AI world. The companies that exist on the internet with unique data (like Stocktwits) are mostly safe, but every old new company has a much bigger distribution and attention problem than ever before. That is why the Stocktwits team has been living a ‘Stocktwits Everywhere’ life.

So what are the weaknesses of Twitter and Robinhood social?

Twitter has scale no doubt, but the financial vertical is just a small aspect of Twitter’s attention and plan.

For Twitter, I have long written here that they are no longer ‘real time’. If you use Twitter (or Instagram or Tik Tok) you are living in a ‘post real-time world’. Here are some of my pieces on the subject. The algorithm based business model has rendered Twitter mostly useless unless you can afford to pay for the expensive API. Furthermore, Trump is the most important node in the Twitter network but he posts from his own platform so Stocktwits sees his posts at the same time as Twitter and in fact Trump is easier to find and digest on Stocktwits.

Trust is also a huge factor in social investing. On Twitter, users can delete posts. That means I can’t trust anyone’s timeline. You should not either.

One major difference on Stocktwits is we do not let users delete posts. We track every ‘cashtagged’ post with a ‘price since’. Our new message box (next 60 days), infused with AI, will bring incredible new benefits to those that use Stocktwits to build their financial brand and improve their investing with feedback tailored to how they have performed, how they can improve, products and people they may like and fresh ideas that fit their strategy.

I am very excited to see the Robinhood social product and ‘cashtags’ in full production. Robinhood is a brokerage first. Robinhood makes their money from trade volume and assets under management. It makes sense that Robinhood launch a social product to increase trade volume and with 27 million accounts, I imagine at least 10-20 percent will at least try the social product. But Robinhood is closed. You will have to have a Robinhood account to be seen. Robinhood will also have to deal with tough decisions about spam and abuse and losing actual customers that comes with moderation.

Most importantly, Robinhood’s entry into social will force brokerages around the world to consider social and the cashtag. Stocktwits is the most open partner a brokerage or financial media company could have and we have been fielding calls daily due to the Twitter and Robinhood news.

US Stocks and Markets Go Global

Another underappreciated aspect of social investing and trading is that US stocks, options and futures (and soon predictions and betting) are now global. This is a new phenomenon/trend.

Our firm Social Leverage was a seed investor in Alpaca.markets which has exploded in growth the last few years. Alpaca powers hundreds of ‘Robinhood’s’ around the globe. I call them the ‘Intel Inside’ of brokerage. Today, over 10 million investors have access to US stocks and markets through Alpaca. Soon it will be hundreds of millions. A certain percentage of those users already use Stocktwits and Twitter for community and data. Having Alpaca as a distribution partner for Stocktwits streams, sentiment and news is important.

What about Predictions and Betting?

I will keep this brief because it is DAY 1 of predictions and betting.

I believe that predictions and bets are much more social than stocks and markets. Bragging rights is human nature.

Stocktwits has already partnered with Polymarket, but we also have plans for our own social prediction products.

We plan to be the leader in how predictions and bets are ‘cashtagged’ and organized around streams for social consumption, but also happy to have a much wider ecosystem of companies and people thinking about this opportunity.

Have a great Sunday.

Selling Early...

Howard Lindzon — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:00:51 +0000

Good morning…

As the markets hit yet another all-time high today people in my Stocktwits feed are talking about selling a stock too early.

If you make a life out of Investing you have sold early...

I am the Stephen Wright of selling early…

My biggest sell early mistake was when I sold my Buddy Media stock in 2010 to buy our first home on Coronado (we still live in it). The company was still private. I believe the valuation at sale was $250 million. I had invested in Buddy Media back in 2007 (at a $3 million valuation (those were the days) after meeting Mike Lazerow in the CBS offices. CBS was acquiring my previous startup Wallstrip and Michael was working at CBS. Long story short, Mike and his wife and co-founder Kass Lazerow and they hustled, pivoted, grew and crushed it. Six months after my sale in the private market, Buddy Media was acquired by Salesforce for $800 million and from there, Salesforce stock probably ran another 10x.

I walk by the house we ‘could’ have had every time I walk that one block to the beach the last 14 years.

Do not get me started on Apple and Robinhood and and and…

PS… it is never too late to index and blame selling early on the dummies that rebalance!

Do As Much As Needed, As Little As Possible - A CEO Masterclass By Jensen Huang

Howard Lindzon — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 14:07:31 +0000

Good morning everyone…

Because it is so computery, I am late to the AI world (I was late to PC’s because they were so ‘Microsoft’ DOS’y).

That is quickly changing.

I have AI ‘aha’ moments everyday of late. For example, Yesterday I started using ‘blockit’ as my AI scheduler. It seems like I am last to an AI assistant, and it took my partner Matt coming over to convince me, but better late than never when it comes to technology.

I have hit the age where being a cynic overrides my optimism. Not so much that I would be against the market, but enough that I hold more cash than I need to. I am at peace with it.

I am also at the age where I do NOT want to be a fanboy, especially of a technology CEO, but Jensen Huang has my continued respect and attention.

Yesterday, I became a fanboy.

The cynic in me was excited to hear $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) CEO Jensen Huang defend himself and the company selling AI chips to China in this excellent podcast (see below starting at minute 57). He held his ground as did Dwarkesh (I lean towards Dwarkesh).

But for me, from minute 41 on was a total masterclass in being a founder and CEO (the first 41 minutes was great was great but I struggle with the technical discussions).

Where my ears perked up and my mind started racing was this line…

‘Do as much as needed, but as little as possible’.

Jensen has been singularly focused on building their platform and he is at peace with having regrets.

As both a founder, CEO and seed investor Jensen’s explanation of the company’s focus and goals was educational and inspirational.

Do have a listen …

Come Hang With Me on May 4 - In New York- At The New York Stock Exchange

Howard Lindzon — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 14:21:35 +0000

Good morning everyone…

The second annual Stocktwits Cashtag Awards are approaching fast. You can grab tickets on the site in the links above.

Some of my favorite investors are joining to celebrate the best of the financial web in 2025. We are proud to have Polymarket as our presenting sponsor.

Last year we had a hilarious time as we presented the awards and this year we have Nathan Macintosh, one of my favorite comedians, joining us to let us know how he feels about AI, money and silicon Valley

Last year Vlad Tenev ( Robinhood) won the ‘Cashtag Legend Award’ and this year we have new faces up for the total of 11 awards.

I also plan on having a panel or two to talk about my favorite trend topics…the degenerate economy, the AI explosion and the growing ‘in real life’ (IRL) movement.

The New York Stock Exchange is an incredible venue, so I hope to see you there.

Momentum Monday - I Blockade You!!

Howard Lindzon — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 12:11:47 +0000

Good morning…

We have ourselves a blockade!

I do not have a blockade playbook, but oil is up and JD Vance is 0 for 2 the last week. He probably had no chance working an Iran deal and in Hungary his boy was a loser.

Ivanhoff and I toured the markets as always and there continues to be incredible momentum and resilience in semiconductors, space, select biotech and small cap technology stocks.

I think the most incredible development has been the ability of the market to absorb almost a complete trillion dollar plus wipeout of software stocks.

We share a few fresh ideas as well…

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

Market Resilience and AI Infrastructure
Semiconductor Evolution and Memory Boom
Software Sector Divergence
Shifting Fintech and Brokerage Leaders
Biotech and Satellite Growth
Redefining the Technology Watch List

In This Episode, We Cover:

Market Resilience and AI Infrastructure (0:00)
Semiconductor Evolution and Memory Boom (1:42)
Software Sector Divergence (6:23)
Shifting Fintech and Brokerage Leaders (9:54)
Biotech and Satellite Growth (12:53)
Redefining the Technology Watch List (14:25)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

Year-to-date, crude oil is up 70%, the small-cap index Russell 2k is up 6%, and the S&P 500 is flat. The semiconductors ETF, SMH, is up 23% and sitting at new all-time highs, while the software ETF, IGV, is down almost 30% and at multi-year lows. A true market of stocks environment.
There’s a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. The moment it became clear, most AI-infrastructure stocks had a quick V-shaped recovery. Some of them were rising even ahead of the peace talk negotiations announcement. Now, we are at a point when many are extended for fresh swing entries – MRVL, GLW, NBIS, TER, AVGO, AMD, AEHR, AAOI, HUT, AXTI, TTMI, INTC, BE, LRCX, SNDK, etc. This velocity of the rally means two things: one, it caught many unprepared and underinvested; and two, the next pullback will very likely be bought aggressively.
In the meantime, crude oil remains a wild card. There’s a reason I called the real Vix of 2026. If peace negotiations fall apart and crude oil resumes its ascent, everything that rallied in the past week and a half will come right back.

And here are the charts discussed:

AI and Semiconductors, Semiconductors and AI...Oh The Fun Venture Capitalists Are Having

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 16:08:44 +0000

1,000+ Proven ChatGPT Prompts That Help You Work 10X Faster

ChatGPT is insanely powerful.

But most people waste 90% of its potential by using it like Google.

These 1,000+ proven ChatGPT prompts fix that and help you work 10X faster.

1,000+ ready-to-use prompts to solve problems in minutes instead of hours—tested & used by 1M+ professionals
Superhuman AI newsletter (3 min daily) so you keep learning new AI tools & tutorials to stay ahead in your career—the prompts are just the beginning

Claim your free prompts

Summer’s around the corner. If you’re dialing up training on the bike, on the run, or just getting back into it, DSTNC is a curated platform for high-performance gear from top global brands.

We’re offering 15% off with code HOWIETOWN15 (some exclusions apply).
Worth a look before your next block.

Good morning everyone…

Check out the discount offer above for portfolio company DSTNC.com for you or your cycling friends. My gift for you ‘in real lifers’.

I plan on spending the afternoon on the couch watching The Masters. My lucky partner Tom spent the first two days at the Masters with Ethan the founder of portfolio company Parfour.com as a guest of some partners and customers. I eagerly await my hat!

Let’s begin…

It has never been a better time to be a large venture capitalist with Capital to deploy (that 2 percent is wonderful). In the first quarter of 2026, a record $300 billion was invested by Venture Capitalists ($6 billion in fees)…

A staggering 65 percent of it ($188 billion) went to just four companies, Anthropic, Open AI, Waymo and xAI.

This chart above is why Silicon Valley is all in on Trump no matter what he does (no excuse of course). The chart is also what AOC, Bernie and Lizzy McWarren fantasize about stopping.

Outside of AI, but related, data centers and semiconductors have captured all the markets attention. If you are a public market investor you have nothing to complain about because these stocks have been in plain sight to those following the all-time high lists like I do here.

Whether and when these data centers get built are questions being debated all day. What is not in question is the staggering growth and demand in the semiconductor industry…

Marc Andreessen famously said ‘software is eating the world’, but now AI and Hardware is eating software and Marc has smartly coined the broader ‘it’s time to build’ slogan…

Twitter tweet

We have entered the ‘Downton Abbey’ blame it on AI era of history. I know this because I went viral with a very niche ‘joke’ tying the demise of Campbell’s Soup to AI…

Twitter tweet

In the physical world outside of defense, chemicals and industrials, market capitalizations are plummeting. It is not just soup! Nike is now just a $60 billion company, down from $250 billion a few years ago.

Can Nike, the rest of the physical world and the beaten down software companies work their way out of this death spiral of lower valuations and brain drain that comes with that to survive in an AI world?

Yes!

All incumbents are definitely in trouble because of the ‘coordination tax’. T his post from Bucco does a good job of explaining the massive ‘coordination tax’ faced by non AI first businesses. The gist…

Peter Drucker, widely considered “the man who invented management”, said it succinctly in the 1950s:
It’s not that the people in other roles aren’t incredibly talented, or critical for the business to function. It’s just that they’re…costs.
The vast majority of these roles are what I would call a “coordination tax” the business needs to pay in order to bring their product to market.
Now, because of AI, many companies are asking themselves the obvious question:
Why are we still paying the coordination tax?

Finally…

It is tax week this week which for me means ‘extensions’ !!!

People say we have lost our prehistoric ways of hunting and gathering, but those people have never invested for a living. All I do is hunt and gather…K1’s!

What is a K1?

A Schedule K-1 is a tax form for investors in partnerships, S-corps, or beneficiaries of estates/trusts. Instead of the business paying taxes, it "passes through" income, losses, and credits to you. You use the K-1 to report your share of this activity on your personal Form 1040, even if you received no cash.

As a firm at Social Leverage we are responsible for delivering them to our LP’s (luckily for everyone I do not handle this for us).

As an investor I must chase/hunt them down from all my own investing. If anyone has some good tricks for organizing this hunting and gathering, hit me up.

Have a great Masters Sunday.

The Howard Lindzon Show: Global Rhetoric Is Childish and Dangerous

Howard Lindzon — Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:11:15 +0000

We’re back with another episode of The Howard Lindzon Show with Michele Steele.

We end week three of the finger (now officially nicknamed “Pointy”) and we’re getting closer to the big reveal at the Cashtag Awards on May 4 at the New York Stock Exchange, where voting is wrapping up. Think finance’s version of the ESPYs: awards, , investing ideas, comedian Nathan McIntosh, Polymarket as sponsor, and a room full of market people.

In today’s show we discuss the promises of Web 3.0 and the current state of the world - deglobalization, degeneracy, and slop. If you are under 30, the internet is TikTok and a chatbot. You don’t “surf the web” anymore.

From there: X as a “freak show,” algorithmic timelines rewarding garbage, the uncomfortable truth that negativity sells, and why people are migrating toward niche communities and group chats for signal over noise. I explain why StockTwits benefits from this shift: real-time streams, people talking to people, and no algorithm propping up the loudest “Cat Turd” equivalent.

We close on the subject of good work and expertise which are still great edges. In a world of giants, small teams can drill down and deep, build great products, and be rewarded.

You can see all the topics below and skip around however you like…

JUMP TO THE GOOD STUFF:

0:05 - Intro + “Pointy” finger nickname update
2:41 - Cashtag Awards at NYSE May 4: voting is wrapping up
3:10 - Categories + why this year’s event is bigger (Nathan McIntosh, Polymarket)
4:17 - Why we need the Cashtag Awards: the news cycle is chaos
5:00 - “Civilization ends tonight” rhetoric + markets barely moving
6:21 - Oil ripping + the market’s surreal calm
8:34 - Apple as an “edge” AI winner: phones, hardware, and the store moat
10:38 - “Held hostage” mentally: markets + geopolitics + daily game-show energy
13:36 - Anxiety bubble: why people feel it everywhere
14:04 - The line: “We were promised Web3… and got slop”
15:19 - Web2 was fun… then the Web3 story… then reality
16:45 - The Bahamas/SBF era: the tell at the top
17:54 - While everyone watched crypto, AI became the real shift
19:15 - “We lost the web”: TikTok + chatbots ate the internet
19:47 - Tokens + $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) as the arms dealer
23:03 - Life lesson: don’t chase the shiny object and miss the real opportunity
24:54 - AI could pull us away from screens (ironically)
25:57 - Attention + trust + vertical networks + group chat matter more
26:40 - X is a freak show: algorithm drives what you see
29:54 - New York Times chart + negativity/defeatism selling
31:39 - Why StockTwits gets more engagement with a smaller audience
33:28 - Creators moving to Substack/Beehiiv + algorithm choke points
35:22 - America as the world’s soap opera
37:37 - Niche platforms can win: TBPN story + doing the work
39:14 - Wrap + finger typing struggles

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Stocktwits, Inc. (“Stocktwits”) operates the stocktwits.com website and Stocktwits mobile device applications (the “Apps”). Stocktwits is not a securities broker-dealer, investment adviser, or any other type of financial professional. No content on the Stocktwits platform should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or any other type of investment or financial product. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

Markets as Art...The Moon Age Is Better Than The Stone Age... and Nasa NFT's?

Howard Lindzon — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:31:15 +0000

Good morning everyone

Before I get started…

Come hang with me and some of the best investors I know in NYC at the NYSE on May 4th - link above - for the Cashtag awards.

Next up….my finger is healing (going to be a long process) and I appreciate all the notes of goodwill.

I am getting better at cleaning and taping the wound myself with just my left hand…

My partner Gary and best Pal Rob in Toronto are recovering from really painful back surgeries so my wound is relatively minor based on our conversations. I am wishing them both speedy recoveries.

Onward…

We are living in a ‘Moon Age’, but the big headline is of course that te got the TACO Tuesday yesterday after the market closed so the ‘Stone Age’ is delayed. I can’t keep up with the news and grift and have become numb to it, which I imagine is Trump’s goal.

While Trump messes with the world order, mood and markets Artemis II was making history and capturing some insane art/photos.

If NASA creates an NFT collection…I quit!

Speaking of art, I have long collected chart art. Most of it is desktop and mobile screenshots from me watching markets the last 10 years.

Two I just snapped just today were the Stocktwits.com community sentiment pre ‘TACO Tuesday’ and this mornings one/two trending punch of $TSLA ( ▼ 4.75% ) and $USO ( ▲ 3.66% ) (oil ETF).

Not quite as impossible photos as those from Artemis II but definitely one of ones.

I would have never bet sentiment could be as bad as we saw in March 2020 (COVID), but the ‘Liberation Day’ bear market (tariffs) and now this ‘Stone Age’ era of Trump have made COVID era quaint.

This morning, our Stocktwits.com trending algorithm produced the one two punch of oil and Tesla which of course have always been related but never in this way and for the actual reaasons they are side by side at the moment.

Markets, price, volume, mood and attention are art!

If I were hang just one though it would be the Artemis II moon/earth shot.

Momentum Monday - Defeatism Sells...and A Stone Age Rally?

Howard Lindzon — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:10:21 +0000

Good evening…

Tomorrow we see if Iran gets sent back to The Stone Age. It’s like Fred Flinstone meets World War 3 meets social media meme war right now. I am mostly watching oil prices and interest rates (which show no signs of coming down) and how the Strait of Hormuz gets settled up. The banter is sheer inanity. The trolls of Iran on Twitter versus the ‘truths’ of Trump. It’s sad, dumb and mean and the media is loving it. The New York Times and the TV talking heads are joyous with their essays and rants about the end of America. Defeatism sells, especially to a global subscriber base of people that love a soap opera that involves the end of America.

Serenity now!

I follow price because the news, the macro and the fundamentals are mostly confusing. If it is fundamentals you want, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, penned a 10,000 word essay on Stagflation and his worries. Surprised he still has such beautiful hair. Goldman Sachs is lowering global growth numbers. I guest those numbers don’t include space and the universe because Elon’s SpaceX is looking to IPO at $2 trillion.

JP Morgan, Goldman, Elon, Sam Altman, the sovereign funds and most of Silicon Valley is all about getting SpaceX, Anthropic and Open AI public. Their big hope is retail stays excited. It is a race to ‘slop’ these IPO’s at the highest possible price to retail. Even the indexers are in on this race approving rule changes for SpaceX so that they can be indexed day one. If you index (like $QQQ ( ▼ 1.51% ) or $SPY ( ▼ 1.2% ) ), whether you like it or not, the day SpaceX IPO’s, it will be a 5-10 percent position in your portfolio. It is why I mostly direct index with portfolio company FREC.com so I can deselect stocks and change their percentage allocations.

Missile to my head…I think the next big move up or down will be a doozie, so I am just trying to see the red or green of their eyes before I make any major decisions.

As always, Ivanhoff and I focus on what is working right now in today’s show…which is oil stocks, space, select AI agent tailwind stocks, optical and memory stocks, select biotech and military stocks and gold. If you like trading and staring at your screen the markets are nirvana right now. Not for me.

Scroll down below the show for all the segments if you just want to find what’s interesting for you…

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

Market Sentiment and Wall of Worry
Macro Drivers and Oil Spike
Relative Strength: $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) vs. $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% )
Optical, Fiber, and Space Stocks
Gold, Rails, and Inflation Hedges
The Agentic Economy: $NET ( ▼ 1.13% ) & $DOCN ( ▼ 2.23% )

In This Episode, We Cover:

Market Sentiment and Wall of Worry (0:02)
Macro Drivers and Oil Spike (2:44)
Relative Strength: $XOM ( ▲ 4.07% ) vs. $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) (4:16)
Optical, Fiber, and Space Stocks (5:56)
Gold, Rails, and Inflation Hedges (11:01)
The Agentic Economy: $NET ( ▼ 1.13% ) & $DOCN ( ▼ 2.23% ) (12:13)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

Last week, we saw an oversold bounce on expectations that the Middle East war would soon come to an end. QQQ and SPY rallied to their declining 20-day moving averages, where they found initial resistance.
It is remarkable how resilient stocks remain despite the price of crude oil nearly doubling in just six weeks. Historically, almost every U.S. recession since WWII has been preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. Given that the average recessionary drawdown is approximately 24%, the market appears somewhat optimistic – the S&P 500 is trading about 6% below its all-time high. The market even bought the bad news on Thursday – stocks gapped down on Trump’s war comments and quickly recovered.
Despite all the scary headlines and excessive volatility, there might even be a follow-through day in the indexes next week. The IBD definition of a FTD is a 1% gain in an index above the previous day’s volume if it comes 4 to 7 days after the latest market low. The good news is that there are stocks to buy if there’s one. I am not that confident that such buys will amount to much.

And here are the charts discussed:

We were promised Web 3.0 and all we got was Deglobalization, Degeneracy and Slop..The World Is About To Get Weird

Howard Lindzon — Sun, 05 Apr 2026 17:16:18 +0000

Good morning everyone…check out the deal above if you cycle or have cycling friends from our portfolio company DSTNC.com

Before I get started…

I am already aggravated that I decided to pull Trump’s ‘truths’ over to Stocktwits so our community could follow his lunacy.

I woke up to this soothing message from Trump this morning…

The $VIX is only 23 against this absurdity.

Over on Stocktwits, the negative sentiment seems higher as we pass COVID levels of fear/concern from our community.

The highest ever $VIX levels and Stocktwits fear levels in history have all occurred under Trump leadership. Trump is playing 4D chess on his own people.

Deep down I know/assume that the US Military, not Trump, has a plan for this war, but I would hate my ‘captain’ to be giving the other team/side more hate ammunition.

The biggest progress/disruption during the era of the internet seems to be in warfare with drones and the Iron Dome. No wonder Trump is asking for $1.5 trillion and Silicon Valley is living in the White House. These topics are over my pay grade to decipher and invest in early with any edge.

I am so grateful for our brave troops and living on Coronado reminds me of this as I run into military people each day.

Onward…

Web 2.0 was very good to me. I was in the right place at the right time with the right skills and attitude. Web 2.0 was incredibly fun when it began. Everyone was surfing, sharing and stumbling upon. The extra juice to the boom was the overwhelming cynicism because of the Internet bubble of 2000 and the long technology bear market that followed.

Web 2.0 refers to the second generation of the World Wide Web, characterized by user-generated content, interactivity, and social connectivity. Emerging around 2004, it shifted from static, read-only websites (Web 1.0) to dynamic platforms, allowing users to create content, collaborate, and share, transforming the internet into a participatory, social, and mobile ecosystem.

What ever happened to Web 3.0?

Web 3.0 (Web3) is the proposed next generation of the internet, focusing on decentralization, blockchain technologies, and token-based economics to shift control from centralized entities (like Big Tech) to individual users. It enables users to own their data, digital assets, and identity directly, aiming for a more transparent, secure, and user-centric web.

In 2026, it does not feel like we came anywhere close to a web 3.0. I wrote about some of this last week. Everything feels more centralized and less fun. It feels like there is NOBODY to root for - which is why sports and ‘IRL’ (in real life) are also huge winners from this change in the web (I will be covering this a lot more in the weeks ahead).

Goldman, JP Morgan, Warren Buffett, Exxon, FaceMetaBook, Elon, Bezos, Amazon etc..rule the world.

Instead of Web 3.0, we ended up with AI which is eating all of the internet and spitting it back out to those of us with enough tokens. It’s a less fun Chucky Cheese for information and Nvidia ( $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) ) is the tokens arms dealer.

Complaining will get you nowhere, so you must adapt and learn.

In just the last few months I have had a monumental shift in how I think about the world. To those that got their first, there is billionaire status.

I am but a simple trend follower so I am happy to surf along behind the great white sharks of AI, space, deglobalization, degeneracy, hardware, entertainment and creativity as AI changes the world order.

My Twitter friend Bucco started a newsletter and his first post titled ‘Friction is a Feature - The World Is About To Get Weird’ dove into some of what I am talking about about above. It is fantastic so take the time and read it. The gist…

The people who can afford to step outside the system, which has been flooded with zero-signal AI slop, will quickly and efficiently do so. In fact, they will be greeted with open arms by the person on the other side of the transaction.
Those with connections will build their own social networks, both online and offline. This has already happened on social media. The action isn’t on the timeline, it’s in the group chats. Those without the connections will remain on the public timeline, posting in the sea of AI agents spamming garbage.
Ultimately, I think it’s inevitable that we will use AI to fight AI. And the absurdity of this scenario is that everyone pays more only to be worse off. Applicants paying $20 to refine their resume, companies paying $50k/yr for an AI screening tool, only for the hiring manager to hire through the side door.
The same will happen for college admissions. AI essays screened with AI detectors. The one part of the application process meant to highlight the unique humanity of applicants - to celebrate and distinguish them as more than a test score - destroyed by slop.
The best candidate didn’t win. The filtering mechanism didn’t even work. The winning candidate left the AIs to fight each other and circumvented the entire charade. The token dealers will get rich, and we will be increasingly frustrated.
Here’s the truly depressing part: If human nature has shown us anything, it’s that once friction is removed from the system, you can’t fix it by trying to add friction somewhere else. You can see that on the internet, where CAN-SPAM laws and GDPR cookie pop-ups and screen time limits haven’t really fixed the problems caused by the reduction in friction. We are all growing more addicted to being online every day, feeding more of our personal information into a giant ad targeting cannon that fires hyper-targeted content and products directly into our eyeballs as we scroll for hours on end.
And you can see the impact of removing friction in offline areas, too. We removed as much of the friction as possible from our food system and now 40% of the adult population is obese. The obesity epidemic is placing significant strain on our healthcare system, and the CDC now estimates that obesity costs the US healthcare system almost $173B a year.
Humans, it turns out, are not good at adapting when friction is removed from a system. We’re solving the problem in a very American way - not by reintroducing friction into the system (although some people prefer to shop at their local farmer’s market), but by using drugs to make people skinny again.

In this new world order…marketing, go to market, distribution and attention are increasingly valuable. Trust, authenticity, vertical networks and group chat will matter more as we continue along , but right now the mass public are addicted to the ‘public’ algorithm driven timelines of large social networks dominated by anger, trolls and slop. Be careful how and where you spend your time more than ever.

Because I have invested in startups, written and published consistently over the last 20 years I have a large network online and IRL, especially around my area of interest and domain experience of investing. Thanks goodness I did this.

Today, almost all my free online time is now dedicated to Stocktwits and my newsletter. I get 10-100 times more engagement from this smaller, narrower audience versus the main social networks. Nobody stands between me and my audience, readers, fans when I post to Stocktwits or my newsletter.

Building trust, capturing and growing attention are now the hardest it has ever been in this era of centralized search, LLMs and chatbots. I am fascinated and consumed with gaining more and more expertise in these areas. Most people are focused on shortcuts and they are a dime a dozen. Be extra careful on how you use them and spend your time.

Ben Thompson said ’we are creating the future and better does not win by default’

That feels more true than ever. Each of us now has the time and tools to be better in our areas of passion and expertise.

Have a great Sunday.

Turn AI into Your Income Engine

Ready to transform artificial intelligence from a buzzword into your personal revenue generator?

HubSpot’s groundbreaking guide "200+ AI-Powered Income Ideas" is your gateway to financial innovation in the digital age.

Inside you'll discover:

A curated collection of 200+ profitable opportunities spanning content creation, e-commerce, gaming, and emerging digital markets—each vetted for real-world potential
Step-by-step implementation guides designed for beginners, making AI accessible regardless of your technical background
Cutting-edge strategies aligned with current market trends, ensuring your ventures stay ahead of the curve

Download your guide today and unlock a future where artificial intelligence powers your success. Your next income stream is waiting.

Get Your Guide

The Howard Lindzon Show: SpaceX in Your Index?! The Rule Changes That Could Reshape Retirement Portfolios

Howard Lindzon — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 16:00:10 +0000

Good morning and happy Passover and Easter to all of you.

We’re back with another episode of The Howard Lindzon Show with Michele Steele.

We open with a quick health check: turns out my “The Tale of the Finger” was very popular which is a reminder that people like pain and gore…but we quickly move into the markets.

I lay out my concerns with the “too orderly” selloff. The macro news is nerve wracking: oil spiking toward $130, rising yields, rising mortgage rates, tariffs and de-globalization pressures, private credit stress, and major geopolitical uncertainty. With that mix, I would expect greater panic… and yet the indexes are rather calm. Even Warren Buffett has called this sell off just a blip and he is not ready to deploy his staggering pile of cash.

Then we turn to something bigger than one week’s price action: the blending of private markets into public markets, and how the rules are being rewritten. We discuss the potential push to bring mega-private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic public.

We wrap with perspective: if you’re young, volatility can be a gift, keep compounding and keep buying, while also learning how to protect yourself if indexing changes (including the rise of direct indexing with FREC.com and the ability to opt out of specific names).

You can see all the topics below and skip around however you like…

JUMP TO THE GOOD STUFF:

0:05 - Intro + “Tale of the Finger” post goes viral
1:49 - Howard’s finger update: garage mishap recovery check-in
6:05 - 911 and the hospital experience: fast emergency care vs the system after
8:41 - Nickname brainstorm: “Stubs” vs “Scarfinger”
9:23 - Finger story as content: why “train wreck” traffic works
9:49 - Markets and geopolitics: the back-and-forth that snapped the rally
10:24 - Why the sell-off feels “too orderly”
11:49 - Oil, yields, private credit stress: “why haven’t markets crashed?”
14:06 - Oil spikes and recession history: what the textbook says
15:05 - De-globalization and commodities: aluminum, copper, silver breaking out
16:32 - Dangerous mix: rising commodity costs + rising rates
17:49 - Why “orderly declines” usually don’t end orderly
18:16 - Buffett’s cash pile + Gunlock’s warnings
19:58 - Private markets blending into public: “shell games” and opaque pricing
20:52 - The stakes: SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs and trillions in demand
22:07 - From “kept private too long” to “forced into ETFs day one”
23:06 - Direct indexing as a response: opt-outs and tax-aware customization
23:59 - SpaceX + Twitter + Grok packaging questions
24:48 - Why pros fear shorting: a headline can flip the tape instantly
25:18 - Integrity of markets: the real issue under everything
26:21 - Retirement accounts and rule changes: who benefits?
27:06 - If you’re young: hope the market drops and keep compounding
28:00 - “Pay attention, don’t study”: find mentors, protect yourself
31:14 - Travel vibes + perception: the “American tourist” question
32:20 - Wrap + tease: finger reveal next week + Cash Tag Awards plug

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Stocktwits, Inc. (“Stocktwits”) operates the stocktwits.com website and Stocktwits mobile device applications (the “Apps”). Stocktwits is not a securities broker-dealer, investment adviser, or any other type of financial professional. No content on the Stocktwits platform should be considered an offer, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell securities or any other type of investment or financial product. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍

I'm Out of The Ten Finger Club....

Howard Lindzon — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 18:01:44 +0000

Good morning everyone…

This is not an April Fool’s story…though I feel like a fool.

I wanted to share my story from last week regarding my accident because of the amazing work the ambulance team and doctors did. I hope they let me share some pictures when I see them again later this week to thank them.

Late last Tuesday I was putting my bike in the garage. The door is not mechanical and when I pulled down the garage via the wood panel my right index finger must have slipped and got caught in the metal hinges between the wood panels as the door came down. It happened so fast, I really cant explain it and the top third of my right index finger was severed.

I was holding my phone in my left hand using the flashlight which I thought was the safe and smart thing to do so luckily I stayed calm enough to call 911. The amazing thing about Coronado is that the police station and fire station are within a few minutes of our home. I’ve never had to call either, but within two minutes of dialing 911 a police car and the ambulance were at my home taking charge. The 911 emergency system is really amazing now that I have had to use it.

I had run into the house to get some towels and quickly locked up as the ambulance arrived. The two men from the ambulance took charge and patched up my finger to stop the bleeding. They arranged to have me taken off island to a bigger San Diego hospital and let them know a hand specialist and surgeon would be needed. I will say that the pain was otherworldly even with my adrenaline running high.

My bone and finger were crushed and were flattened so I knew it was bad from seeing it get cut off in real time I assumed they would patch up the nub of the finger and I was trying to get my head around that as I waited for the surgeon to see me. My doctor was just 30 years of age which surprised me, but he sat me down confidently, numbed up my hand, looked at the x-rays and started doing test on the nerves and blood from both sides of the finger. I really was at peace with losing it because of how it looked and the throbbing pain. If he had told me that was what he had to do, I would have just agreed. Instead he summarized that he felt he could reattach it and try to save it. He said the bone was too messed up for pins, but the scar tissue would heal around it and it had a good chance of taking. Fourty stictches later he cleaned me up and sent me home around 3 AM.

Tomorrow, I go back to see the surgeon who saved it to see what is next. So far I can feel the tip of my finger and despite the throbbing and swelling and pain, it seems to be healing.

Thanks everyone for the well wishes

PS - A friend made me laugh sending me one of the funniest scenes ever from Silicon Valley. I would rather lose a comma than a finger….

Momentum Monday - The Selloff and Degeneracy Accelerate...Here Comes The Fear

Howard Lindzon — Mon, 30 Mar 2026 23:21:50 +0000

Good afternoon/evening…

The plan was to get you a Momentum Monday newsletter early am (we shared a video with our thoughts and ideas as always if you scroll down and are subscribed on YouTube or Stocktwits), but the futures were up as was oil and that made no sense to me so I decided to sit on my hands all day and just watch the markets as I worked. I had no urge to buy anything. I am selling m

I don’t like/trust the slow motion crash right now. The selloff feels too orderly…

Twitter tweet

The acceleration in selling spread to the semiconductor leaders today, but it won’t get Warren Buffett and his $400 billion excited. The US market resiliency since 2009 has likely created a false sense of security…

Twitter tweet

Maybe Trump realizes that his ‘truths’ are not going to help prop up the markets and the long grind of war is a reality. I read (on the internet so it might not be true) that the average war is 3 years, so color me a skeptic for thinking this Middle East war resolves iiself quickly. Everyone is offering their ‘expert’ opinion on the Middle East and nobody’s opinion in the history of Middle East as been right. Extremists are crazy. Now they have drones, the Clause Code of chaos.

For markets to calm down we need MUCH lower oil prices and for the Middle East to be a place you can travel to, through and over. So rallies we will get, but I am not sure we get much more until there is more clarity.

As for other worries…it sure feels off the way the market is treating the acceleration of ‘bad’ degeneracy and the acceleration of ‘deglobalization’. I am all for the degenerate economy because humans across the globe like to ‘bet’, speculate and invest. Even Fred Flinstone had a gambling problem. My concerns last year and especially in late January were that the venture capitalists and Wall Street were providing endless supply for investors stupidity. From late January….

I call this phase of the degeneracy cycle ‘endless liquidity for your stupidity’. There is just too much supply of bets, options and products. The ‘stupid’ people are in abundance for now. The degenerate economy will not fade away but the poster children for degeneracy, Bitcoin, Robinhood, Coinbase, Uber, Doordash and Affirm ( $HOOD ( ▲ 1.05% ) $COIN ( ▲ 0.86% ) $AFRM ( ▲ 3.67% ) $DASH ( ▲ 1.93% ) )that have had nothing but good news and ‘growthy’ announcements and attention, only to see values drop 30 to 40 percent from their highs.
For the deglobalization trend, there is an opposite problem…not enough supply of companies and products to satiate the demand from investors that have figured this out. So, prices are spiking. You see it in gold, silver, european defense stocks, uranium, nuclear companies and oil stocks. Lewis believes this will soon spread to oil prices (the commodity), steel and other strategic supply chain areas as people and countries react to the deglobalization trend/theme. I will have him on the podcast again soon.

Robinhood and Coinbase are down another 20-30 percent since and the supply keeps coming. Kalshi just raised a fresh $ 1 billion on a $22 billion valuation and the landscape of prediction/betting companies continues to explode.

Twitter tweet

Over on Stocktwits.com… the fear is accelerating. In early March the bullishness tilted to fear (steep crossover from green to red). Now that fear is spreading fast as the market drop accelerates.

We need this fear to create a bottom. The timing is not something I care to speculate on at the moment.

Enjoy your evening and the show is below…

Welcome back to Momentum Monday!

In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:

Market Overview and panic Selling
Commodity Strength: Energy and Chemicals
Geopolitical Impact and Troop Speculation
Sentiment Analysis: StockTwits Fear Levels
Tech Indices and Support Levels
Valuation Debates: $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) and $HOOD ( ▼ 4.41% )

In This Episode, We Cover:

Market Overview and panic Selling (0:02)
Commodity Strength: Energy and Chemicals (2:00)
Geopolitical Impact and Troop Speculation (4:22)
Sentiment Analysis: StockTwits Fear Levels (5:33)
Tech Indices and Support Levels (8:21)
Valuation Debates: $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) and $HOOD ( ▼ 4.41% ) (11:23)

Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:

The selling has accelerated. SPY is now below its volume-weighted average price since its April 2025 lows during the tariff war correction. We are in the midst of a different war now with even more serious consequences for the entire world – a potential energy crisis and stagflation. The next potential support for SPY is around 610.
It is rare to see the market panic and sell everything. Those periods typically don’t last long and are a precursor to bottoming. The major stock indexes around the world are already down 10-20% from their recent highs. Last week, we finally saw some elements of panic selling as even the last remaining momentum leaders started to crack. This is actually positive for the future prospects of the market. The sooner a potential crisis is priced in, the sooner the market will be able to see through the chaos and quickly determine the potential winners. Look at the price action in ZM, for example, during the Covid selloff in 2020. Back then, SPY went down 35% in less than two months. During that time, ZM made a new all-time high and gained 5x in the following seven months. There will always be winners and losers, and the market does a good job highlighting them.
Take, for example, the current crisis. The energy sector is having one of the best years in its history so far. So many, otherwise slowly moving and boring, oil and gas stocks have been making new all-time highs on a weekly basis. Many of the chemical-related stocks are also pushing to new highs as they benefit from shortages – MEOH, CF, DOW, CC, etc. The solar stock SEDG is also gaining notable relative strength – the longer this energy crisis lasts, the more people and countries invest in solar and nuclear. Obviously, when the market smells a potential end to this war, many of these stocks are going to take a serious haircut.
It is good to keep in mind that regulators have the same playbook for every serious crisis – they throw a lot of liquidity into the system. When that happens again, gold, crypto, and many stocks are likely to have their time of day again. Until then, it is important to protect capital, confidence, and stay in good trading shape.

And here are the charts discussed: