GRIT

👉 Breaking Down Palantir ($PLTR)

GRIT — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 18:22:41 +0000

Good afternoon.

We’re thrilled to share a comprehensive breakdown of Palantir after the stock has dropped ~30% since all-time highs.

As a reminder, this specific deep-dive is written by the GRIT team and is not the exclusive work of Head Analyst Austin Hankwitz.

Stock Deep Dive: Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR-US, $322B)

Palantir is not getting sold off because it is broken. It is getting sold off because “software” is broken in investors’ minds.

In early 2026, the market is treating seat based enterprise apps like a melting ice cube as AI agents promise to do more work with fewer clicks, fewer users, and fewer licenses. In that tape, Palantir is guilty by association. But it is also one of the few companies plausibly built for the regime shift.

While most enterprise AI looks like chat layered on top of documents, Palantir is trying to run the closed loop: connect data to decisions, decisions to permissions, and permissions to actions inside systems that move money, inventory, and missions. Its forward deployed engineers and Ontology are not window dressing, they are the machinery that turns models into governed operations.

And the fundamentals are forcing attention. 2025 revenue grew 56%, 2026 guidance implies roughly 61% growth, cash generation is massive, and GAAP profitability is sustained. The debate is simple and brutal: is this the operating layer for “Operational AI,” or is it an extremely expensive stock that the market will not forgive if growth slips?

Why Now 👉 Not Your Typical Software Stock
Important Nuance 👉 Chatbots vs. Closed Loop Operations
Overview 👉 What Does Palantir Do?
How Do They Win? 👉 Value Proposition
Business Units 👉 Breaking Down the Segments
How Do They Make Money? 👉 Turning “deployment” into durable dollars
By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics
Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls
Competition & Outlook 👉 vs. Software, Data, Cloud

Why Now 👉 Not Your Typical Software Stock

Early 2026 has been brutal for traditional software as investors reprice a new fear: if AI agents automate workflows, seat based revenue and the budgets behind it may be less durable than assumed. The result is a broad drawdown in software, with the narrative shifting from “recurring revenue is king” to “AI can commoditize parts of what software does.”

Palantir has been pulled into that same gravity well despite standout fundamentals. That is exactly why it is interesting. The market is punishing software because AI threatens the economics of conventional apps. Palantir is pitching the opposite: it positions itself as the layer that turns AI into governed actions inside messy enterprises and mission environments, where trust, security, auditability, and real world constraints matter.

The numbers force a second look. Palantir closed 2025 with 56% revenue growth and guided roughly 61% growth for 2026, alongside very high cash generation and sustained GAAP profitability. The “sold off with software” moment may be creating a rare setup: real acceleration, especially in U.S. commercial, inside a tape that is broadly de risking software exposure.

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Important Nuance 👉 Chatbots vs. Closed Loop Operations

A lot of enterprise AI still looks like a chat layer attached to a document store. Useful, but often it stops short of the hard part: connecting AI to the systems that actually run the organization, then allowing it to act with security and governance. Real operations live in ERP, supply chain tools, mission systems, production lines, and logistics networks. In regulated or high stakes settings, the gap between “AI answers” and “AI does” is permissions, controls, audit trails, and policy enforcement.

Palantir’s framing is that its platform stack was built to integrate data, logic, decisions, and operations at scale, then connect modern AI, including third party LLMs, into those workflows under legal, ethical, and security constraints.

Source: Company Filings

A useful mental model is: LLMs and agents are the interface. Palantir is the governed operating substrate that lets those interfaces touch reality, including data access, role based permissions, action execution, and traceability back into systems of record.

Palantir has also productized the operator layer concept with AI FDE, described as an AI powered forward deployed engineer that can operate Foundry through conversational commands while respecting permissions. The signal is intent: AI that executes governed work, not just AI that chats.

Overview 👉 What Does Palantir Do?

Palantir sells software platforms that integrate, model, and operationalize a customer’s own data for two core groups: governments, especially defense and intelligence, and commercial enterprises. It is not a data broker. It sells the tooling that connects disparate internal sources and turns them into decisions, workflows, and repeatable operations.

The platform set is designed to cover the full loop from data to action. Foundry is the foundational data operations platform, spanning data management, analytics, workflow development, and systemic mapping via the Ontology. Gotham is tailored to defense and intelligence, integrating data across domains in near real time for situational awareness and mission execution. Apollo is the continuous delivery layer for deploying and upgrading software across environments, including multi cloud and disconnected settings. AIP is the AI layer that connects LLMs and other models to an organization’s data and operations with governance for production workflows.

Source: Company Filings

In the AI stack, Palantir often sits above raw infrastructure and below business applications. It connects to fragmented systems without forcing a full rip and replace, builds a decision model through the Ontology that maps data to real world objects and permitted actions, and provides interfaces and workflow tools that let operators and AI agents collaborate on a shared operational substrate. It reads less like conventional SaaS and more like an enterprise operating layer where data becomes action.

How Do They Win? 👉 Value Proposition

Palantir tends to win where standard enterprise software playbooks break down. Traditional vendors often scale through broad distribution, standardized SKUs, seat expansion, and light implementation. Palantir thrives in environments where data is messy, stakes are high, and workflows cannot be abstracted into generic best practice apps without significant adaptation.

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👉 A Volatile Week Ahead?

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 14:58:34 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

The Iran conflict will be the primary focus of the week, paired with some massive earnings reports + investor events.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Abercrombie and Fitch, Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Marvell, and Target highlight this week.

Monday (3/2): Credo Technology, MongoDB, Norwegian Cruise Line, Riot Platforms, Sealed Air

Tuesday (3/3): Best Buy, CrowdStrike, GitLab, On Holding, Sportradar, Target

Wednesday (3/4): Abercrombie & Fitch, Broadcom, Okta, Rigetti Computing, Veeva Systems, Wix

Thursday (3/5): Costco, Kroger, Marvell Technology, Samsara, Victoria’s Secret, Burlington Stores

Friday (3/6): Embraer, Genesco, Petrobras

What We’re Watching:

Broadcom (AVGO)

Source: Broadcom Investor Relations

Broadcom (-7.% YTD) reports Q1 FY2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether the company can continue translating massive AI-infrastructure demand into sustained revenue growth – and justify its position as one of the market’s most important AI enablers outside of Nvidia.

Broadcom has emerged as a critical backbone of the AI buildout through its custom accelerators, networking silicon, and VMware-driven infrastructure software platform, supplying hyperscalers building next-generation data centers. Management previously guided Q1 revenue to roughly $19.1 billion, supported by expectations that AI semiconductor revenue will double year-over-year to about $8.2 billion, driven by strong orders from large cloud customers.

Last year, Broadcom generated $64 billion in total revenue (+24% YoY), with AI-related sales surging 65% to ~$20 billion, increasingly becoming the primary engine of growth as enterprise customers scale AI workloads.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching whether AI demand continues accelerating beyond GPU spending into networking and custom silicon, how VMware integration is impacting margins and recurring software revenue, and whether management provides updated visibility on its growing AI backlog – now viewed as one of the clearest multi-year demand signals across semiconductor infrastructure.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $1.40 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $19.47 billion.
You can explore the most recent AVGO investor release here and here.

Target (TGT)

Source: Target Investor Relations

Target Corporation (+16.4% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Tuesday before the open. The company enters this release at an important inflection point for big-box retail. While holiday shopping trends improved late in the quarter, elevated promotions, inventory normalization efforts, and ongoing shifts toward essentials over discretionary categories continue to weigh on profitability. Management has already indicated results are expected to land broadly in line with prior guidance, signaling limited upside surprises heading into the print.

Last quarter, Target delivered mixed results as comparable sales remained pressured despite steady traffic trends, with margins constrained by markdown activity and category mix. Analysts currently expect roughly $30B+ in quarterly revenue and EPS near ~$2.15, as investors look for signs that earnings can reaccelerate into FY2026 following a weaker FY2025 performance.

Heading into earnings, I’ll be watching three key themes: holiday-season execution, progress in discretionary categories like home and apparel, and commentary on pricing power amid still-selective consumer behavior. Updates on inventory discipline, private-label momentum, and digital fulfillment profitability will likely drive sentiment for the stock’s next move.

Target Corp (TGT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $2.15 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $30.48 billion.
You can explore the most recent TGT investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple Experience + new product announcements, Morgan Stanley TMT Conference, Continued focus on Iran.

Apple Experience

Apple Inc. has invited press, developers, and creators to in-person “Apple Experience” sessions across New York, London, and Shanghai, coinciding with coordinated announcements tied to its latest iPad and Mac product refresh cycle.

The events are expected to provide hands-on demonstrations of new hardware and software integrations, with markets watching closely for updates around AI-enabled productivity features, silicon performance upgrades, and ecosystem expansion across devices.

In addition, new products are most likely to be revealed this week. A MacBook Air with an M5 chip, MacBook Pros with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, a lower-cost MacBook featuring the A18 Pro chip, the iPad 12 with an A19 chip, an iPad Air with the M4 chip, and the iPhone 17e featuring the A19 chip, are expected according to various reports.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Morgan Stanley TMT Conference Kicks Off in San Francisco

The annual Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference begins this week in San Francisco, bringing together senior executives, institutional investors, and analysts for three days of strategy updates and industry outlook discussions across technology, media, and communications.

Notable presenters include Walmart Inc., Cisco Systems, The Walt Disney Company, Comcast Corporation, Expedia Group, Autodesk, NetApp, and Carvana, among others.

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Continued Focus on Conflict w/ Iran

Source: White House | Via AFP-JIJI

The U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran has entered its third day following coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering widespread retaliation across the region. Iran has launched missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf nations hosting U.S. bases, with civilian infrastructure in places like Dubai also hit. Casualties are mounting on both sides, and a temporary leadership council has assumed control in Tehran as succession questions loom.

Markets reacted swiftly. Oil surged roughly 8–9% on fears of supply disruptions, while gold and silver climbed as investors rotated into safe-haven assets. U.S. equity futures fell about 1%, and Asian markets opened lower, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. The dollar firmed slightly, and Treasury yields remain volatile.

The big question now is whether tensions de-escalate or spiral. President Trump suggested the conflict could last weeks but also hinted at potential talks, while Iranian officials publicly rejected negotiations. Global reactions remain divided, with Western allies largely backing the U.S. and China and Russia condemning the strikes. For investors, the path of energy prices and the risk of regional spillover will likely dictate near-term market direction.

Major Economic Events:

Jobs report, retail sales and a look into manufacturing highlight the week.

Monday (3/2): Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing, S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday (3/3): Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid Speaks, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Interview, New York Fed President John Williams Remarks

Wednesday (3/4): ADP Employment, Fed Beige Book, ISM Services, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI

Thursday (3/5): Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee Speaks, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman Speaks, Import Price Index, Import Price Index ex-Fuel, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Productivity

Friday (3/6): Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack Speaks, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Speaks, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Unemployment Rate, Wage Growth (YoY)

What We’re Watching:

U.S. Retail Sales

U.S. retail sales were unchanged in December, missing expectations for a +0.4% increase and marking a sharp slowdown after November’s strong +0.6% gain. The report suggests holiday spending momentum cooled late in the year as higher borrowing costs and stretched household budgets continued to weigh on discretionary demand.

Strength in building materials (+1.2%), sporting goods (+0.4%), and gasoline stations (+0.3%) was offset by declines across several consumer-sensitive categories, including furniture (-0.9%), clothing (-0.7%), electronics (-0.4%), and auto dealers (-0.2%).

Importantly, control-group sales – the component used to calculate GDP – fell 0.1%, the first decline in three months, signaling softer underlying consumption entering 2026.

Economists expect the following this week:

Retail Sales (MoM): 0.0% vs. +0.6% prior
Retail Sales ex-Autos & Gas: 0.0% vs. +0.3% prior
Control Group Sales: -0.1% vs. +0.4% prior

U.S. Unemployment Rate

The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 4.3% in January, down from 4.4% in December and slightly better than expectations, signaling continued stability in the labor market despite moderating economic momentum.

Total employment increased by 528,000, while the number of unemployed Americans fell by 141,000 to 7.36 million. Labor force participation also improved modestly to 62.5%, reflecting steady worker re-entry. Encouragingly, the broader U-6 unemployment rate – which captures underemployment – dropped to 8.0% from 8.4%, pointing to improving labor utilization beneath the surface.

Economists expect the following this week:

Unemployment Rate: 4.3% vs. 4.4% prior
Labor Force Participation: 62.5% vs. 62.4% prior
U-6 Unemployment Rate: 8.0% vs. 8.4% prior

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👉 Weekend Wartime

Austin Hankwitz — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 17:11:13 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Nvidia is expecting $78B in Q1 revenue (excluding China).
Alani Nu added $370M to Celsius’ top-line revenue.
Zeta Global finally achieved GAAP profitability.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Supreme Leader of Iran has been eliminated.
There’s more uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
Shares of Novo Nordisk sank after slashing prices.

Economic Updates:

Producer prices continue to rise.
Jobless claims held steady.
Consumer confidence ticked up.

👉 Portfolio Updates

No major portfolio updates to share, although after this weekend’s news cycle I’m very grateful I started deploying net new capital into energy and international ETFs at the beginning of February. Oil futures aren’t live for several more hours but if this tokenized oil fund is remotely correct, we’re going to see USO hit $100 / share sooner than we might think. We’re also seeing news of major oil companies suspending oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Roughly $50K of my portfolio is invested into energy via XLE, USO, MLPI, AMPL, OXY, PSX, OIH, and XOM. Only time will tell if this was a good move or not.

Remember, there are more markets that just the US stock market.

When signs of exhaustion (NVDA beating earnings but still dropping -5%, SPX + NDX trading sideways for months, etc.) begin to creep in, take a beat and wait to see what direction things are headed. I noticed these trends in late 2025 / early 2026 and shared several weeks ago my intention to start deploying net new capital into energy and international ETFs.

While VOO and QQQ are down -0.48% and -0.29%, respectively, since I started buying energy and international — this subsection of my portfolio is up +1.53%. That’s 2% of alpha in a month while retail-favorite stocks like EOSE and AI ETFs like IVES are down -40% and -10%, respectively.

Also excited to see our potash trade, IPI, up +10% throughout the month of February.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Nvidia is expecting $78B in Q1 revenue (excluding China), Alani Nu added $370M to Celsius’ top-line revenue, and Zeta Global finally achieved GAAP profitability.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $68.1 billion, an increase of +73% YoY

Operating Income: $44.3 billion, an increase of +84% YoY

Profits: $43.0 billion, an increase of +94% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing. Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute — the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth."

My Takeaway

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $721.6 million, an increase of +117% YoY

Operating Income: $26.1 million, compared to -$18.5 million last year

Profits: $24.7 million, compared to -$18.9M last year

Earnings Release Callout

“One of the reasons we feel good about the progress is that we delivered full-year record revenue of $2.5 billion, reflecting our disciplined approach to growth and the material scale we've accomplished. We are focused on the fundamentals that drive that outcome, staying disciplined with SKU productivity... and elevating market execution with Pepsi and our retail partners."

My Takeaway

Zeta Global (ZETA)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $394.6 million, an increase of +25% YoY

Operating Income: $18.0 million, an increase of +158% YoY

Profits: $6.5 million, compared to $15.2 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"We delivered our 18th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter. This consistent performance is not the result of a single product cycle or an easy comparison. It reflects the compounding power of our system: proprietary data that improves with every customer interaction, intelligence that sharpens with every decision, and now Athena by Zeta—an interface that lowers the barriers to enterprise-wide adoption."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Supreme Leader of Iran has been eliminated, there’s more uncertainty surrounding tariffs, and shares of Novo Nordisk sank after slashing prices.

Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei Is Dead

Source: Reuters

The U.S. and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and targeting key military infrastructure in an effort to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Iran quickly retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the Middle East, hitting or threatening U.S. bases and Gulf nations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Tehran has declared national mourning, and a temporary leadership council is expected to govern as questions swirl around succession.

Energy markets are on edge. Oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely paused, Brent crude is pushing toward $80, and OPEC+ has signaled a modest production increase to offset potential supply shocks. Airlines across the Gulf have suspended flights, and several major airports have been disrupted.

For markets, the key risk is escalation. Oil, defense stocks, and safe-haven assets are likely to see volatility, while broader global growth expectations could weaken if energy prices spike. The situation remains fluid, and investors are bracing for headline-driven swings as geopolitical risk moves front and center.

Trump's Section 122 Tariff Takes Effect — With More Uncertainty Ahead

Sources: Reuters | Kenny Holston | pool

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WEEK IN REVIEW: Full access to the internet's best recap of the markets, every single week. This includes comprehensive earnings breakdowns, portfolio updates, and more. This is the perfect compliment to the "Investing Week Ahead" post that you already receive at the beginning of each week.
MONTHLY LIVESTREAMS: Join Austin Hankwitz live every month to dive deep into his portfolio, explore the latest trends, discuss any changes he’s making, and cover market-moving topics.
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👉 Everything Rides on Nvidia

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 14:04:39 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

Positive and negative AI news is constant, Trump’s tariffs are back at the forefront, and the entire market is anxiously awaiting Nvidia’s earnings.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Plain and simple — all eyes are on Nvidia.

Monday (2/23): BWX Technologies, Diamondback Energy, Dominion Energy, Freshpet, Hims & Hers, Keysight Technologies, Kratos Defense, ONEOK

Tuesday (2/24): AMC Entertainment, Axon Enterprise, Cava Group, DigitalOcean, FIS, MercadoLibre, Navitas Semiconductor, Workday

Wednesday (2/25): BMO, Hut 8, IONQ, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, Synopsys, TJX Companies, VICI Properties

Thursday (2/26): ACM Research, Baidu, CoreWeave, Dell Technologies, Duolingo, Marathon Digital, Pure Storage, Warner Bros. Discovery, Zscaler

Friday (2/27): Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Arbor Realty Trust, Endeavour Silver, NW Natural, Sunstone Hotel Investors, V2X

What We’re Watching:

Nvidia (NVDA)

Nvidia (+1.8% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, one of the most consequential tech prints of the quarter as markets weigh AI demand, margin sustainability, and capital-spending cadence across data centers and enterprise technology.

Nvidia has been the poster child of the AI bull market, powering generative AI deployments with its GPU and accelerator portfolio.

Last quarter, the company reported revenue well above expectations with premium data-center growth, strong OEM engagement, and solid graphics performance underpinning results. But sentiment has cooled from the frothy highs of 2023–24, and investors are now asking whether demand remains durable amid rising competition, inventory normalization, and broader tech selloffs.

Heading into this print, I’ll be watching several critical themes:

Data-center revenue trajectory — especially AI-GPU sales and cloud partner demand
Gross margin sustainability as ASPs cycle and mix shifts toward next-gen products
Guidance for 2026 capex and AI infrastructure spending — signaling whether customers are stepping up or pausing
Inventory and channel checks — particularly around hyperscaler ordering patterns

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $1.46 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $65.69 billion.
You can explore the most recent NVDA investor release here and here.

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Salesforce (CRM)

Salesforce reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week amid a challenging backdrop for software stocks, with concern over AI disruption contributing to a roughly -30% YTD decline in its share price. Investors will be watching whether the CRM leader can demonstrate durable demand and monetization as AI hype, sentiment swings, and competitive disruption pressure valuations across the tech sector.

Last quarter, Salesforce delivered $9.8 billion in revenue (+14% YoY) and $1.50 in adjusted EPS (+18% YoY), beating expectations as strength in Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, and AI-driven automation lifted recurring revenue. Management also highlighted continued momentum in digital transformation initiatives and expanding AI usage across its platform.

Heading into this print, I’ll be focused on whether subscription revenue trends hold up in the face of industry-wide software multiple compression, if AI-related product adoption — such as Einstein and Slack integrations — is translating into meaningful ARR acceleration, and how forward guidance reflects customers’ willingness to invest in enterprise tech and AI amid macro uncertainties.

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $1.57 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.19 billion.
You can explore the most recent CRM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple annual meeting puts China exposure in focus, JPMorgan to host investor update in NYC, and Supreme Court tariff ruling creates fresh business uncertainty.

Apple Annual Meeting Puts China Exposure in Focus

Apple (APPL) Stock Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Apple will hold its annual shareholder meeting this week, with attention centered on a proposal requesting a board-level report on the risks and costs tied to the company’s operations in China. The measure — submitted by the National Center for Public Policy Research — calls for greater transparency around supply-chain concentration, tariff exposure, access to rare earth materials, and broader security considerations.

Shareholders will also vote on director re-elections, including board chair Art Levinson and director Ron Sugar, for whom the board has waived its customary age-75 retirement guideline.

While the proposals are unlikely to materially alter near-term operations, the discussion underscores ongoing geopolitical scrutiny around China exposure – a factor that remains central to Apple’s manufacturing footprint and long-term risk profile.

JPMorgan to Host Investor Update in NYC

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

JPMorgan Chase will host a company update in New York City this week, with investors focused on a more detailed firm-wide review than in recent years. CFO Jeremy Barnum is expected to provide a deeper breakdown across major business lines – including consumer banking, investment banking, markets, and asset & wealth management.

The event will conclude with prepared remarks and Q&A from CEO Jamie Dimon, whose commentary on credit trends, capital allocation, regulatory outlook, and macro conditions will be closely watched.

With bank stocks sensitive to rate expectations and credit quality, any updates on loan growth, net interest income guidance, or capital return plans could move the group.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Creates Fresh Business Uncertainty

The Supreme Court struck down key elements of President Trump’s signature tariffs, but the decision has left corporate America with more questions than clarity. While companies welcomed the ruling, uncertainty remains around whether previously paid tariffs will be refunded – and how quickly.

Business leaders are now evaluating potential refund litigation, pricing adjustments, and the impact of President Trump’s announcement of a new 15% global tariff under separate legal authority. Trade groups are pushing for streamlined refunds, but Treasury officials have suggested any recovery process could take months or longer.

Executives across retail, manufacturing, and consumer goods are weighing whether to alter supply chains, adjust pricing, or hold steady amid continued policy volatility. Many larger multinationals have already built modeling teams and “war rooms” to simulate tariff outcomes, while smaller businesses face more immediate cash-flow pressure.

For markets, the key issues this week are:

Whether refund mechanisms become clearer
The scope and timing of newly announced tariffs
How companies adjust guidance amid policy shifts

Major Economic Events:

Factory orders, initial jobless claims, and producer price index highlight this week.

Monday (2/23): Factory orders, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks

Tuesday (2/24): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Consumer confidence, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities), Wholesale inventories

Wednesday (2/25): Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks

Thursday (2/26): Initial jobless claims

Friday (2/27): Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Construction spending (Dec), Construction spending (Nov delayed), Core PPI, Core PPI year over year, PPI year over year, Producer Price Index (delayed report)

What We’re Watching:

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to 206,000 in the second week of February, well below expectations of 225,000 and returning to levels comfortably below early-2025 averages. The drop reinforces the view that layoffs remain contained despite softer hiring momentum across several sectors.

Continuing claims – a measure of ongoing unemployment – edged up modestly by 17,000 to 1.87 million, suggesting that while job losses remain limited, reemployment may be taking slightly longer. Overall, the data points to a labor market that is cooling gradually but not deteriorating – consistent with the Federal Reserve’s characterization of a “balanced” employment backdrop.

Economists expect the following this week:

Initial Jobless Claims: 206K vs. 229K prior
Continuing Claims: 1.87M vs. 1.85M prior

Producer Price Index

U.S. producer prices rose +0.5% MoM in December, the largest monthly increase in three months and well above expectations for +0.2%. The upside surprise was driven primarily by services, which rebounded +0.5% after being flat in November, led by a sharp increase in machinery and equipment wholesaling margins.

Goods prices were flat overall, though there were notable swings beneath the surface. Nonferrous metals surged +4.5%, and prices rose for natural gas, motor vehicles, soft drinks, and aircraft equipment. Offsetting those gains, diesel fuel plunged 14.6%, with declines also seen in gasoline, jet fuel, beef, and scrap metals.

Core PPI – excluding food and energy –jumped +0.7% MoM, the strongest gain since July and well above forecasts. On a yearly basis, headline PPI held at +3.0%, while core producer inflation accelerated to +3.3%, exceeding expectations.

Economists expect the following this week:

Headline PPI (MoM): +0.5% vs. +0.2% prior
Core PPI (MoM): +0.7% vs. 0.0% prior
Core PPI (YoY): 3.3% vs. 3.0% prior

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👉 Walmart's "Sparky" Drives +35% Higher AOVs

Austin Hankwitz — Sun, 22 Feb 2026 22:31:17 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Palo Alto Networks is experiencing rapid adoption of their AI-specific security tools.
Figma’s “land and expand” strategy is best-in-class.
Walmart’s AI tool “Sparky” is driving +35% AOVs.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs.
Meta will buy millions of Nvidia chips.
OpenAI targets $600B of compute spend by 2030.

Economic Updates:

The Fed meeting minutes showed a big divide between members of the committee.
GDP growth came in well below estimates (for now).

👉 Portfolio Updates

The overall portfolio is experiencing some much needed stability. At the moment, I’m sitting on roughly $200K cash (steadily deploying this into the energy and international ETFs mentioned a few weeks ago as I continue to expect market-wide volatility), $50K currently invested into those international and energy names, $50K in NEOS Funds, $220K in our dividend growth portfolio, and another $250K or so between Amazon, Tesla, and a handful of other energy and commodities.

Dividend Growth Portfolio

NEOS Funds

International + Energy

The Dividend Growth Stock portfolio is suffering because nearly 65% of its value depends on the performance of Big Tech and High Beta Names — both of these categories are currently under pressure. However, that doesn’t bother me as I have a long-term thesis in all of the holdings inside this portfolio. I know where these stocks are headed over the coming years and will happily buy these names all the way down.

The Money Income (NEOS Funds) portfolio is doing what it does best — produce tax-efficient monthly income. BTCI is taking a beating as Bitcoin is well into it’s bear market. We’ll likely see this continue into the summertime, and maybe see relief in Q4 of this year. BTCI remains my favorite way to own Bitcoin while its in a bear market — get paid ~30% yield to wait for it to go back up! Sounds good to me.

The International + Energy names are doing quite well. This portfolio is up +2.7% over the last three weeks while QQQ is down -1.3% and VOO is flat. I continue to believe 2026 will be plagued with volatility as many high-beta names already experienced their climax tops, and other market leaders like Microsoft begin to rollover.

I continue to accumulate shares of Amazon and other one-off energy and commodity stocks and ETFs. I firmly believe these positions (across the entire portfolio) will provide stability throughout 2026.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Palo Alto Networks is experiencing rapid adoption of their AI-specific security tools, Figma’s “land and expand” strategy is best-in-class, and Walmart’s AI tool “Sparky” is driving +35% AOVs.

Palo Alto Network (PANW)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $2.6 billion, an increase of +15% YoY

Operating Income: $785.0 million, an increase of +27% YoY

Profits: $432.0 million, an increase of +62% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We saw continued strength in platformizations, a trend that is accelerating due to AI—customers are keen to both modernize and normalize their cybersecurity stack, aligning them to our approach. We also saw steady and strong adoption of AI security, which we expect will be a long-term trend. We are excited to welcome the employees of Chronosphere and CyberArk to help us drive our growth in the future.”

My Takeaway

Figma (FIG)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $303.8 million, an increase of +40% YoY

Operating Loss: -$195.5 million, compared to $51.7 million last year

Net Loss: -$226.6 million, compared to $97.8 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“2025 was a massive year for Figma, and the fourth quarter was our best quarter yet. Our accelerated revenue and customer growth going into 2026 reflect design's power and Figma's essential place at the center of the product development stack.”

My Takeaway

Walmart (WMT)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $190.7 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $8.7 billion, an increase of +11% YoY

Profits: $4.2 billion, compared to $5.3 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

"And our financial results show that we're not only embracing this change, we're leading it. For our customers and members, the future is fast, convenient, and personalized."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariffs, Meta will buy millions of Nvidia chips, and OpenAI targets $600B of compute spend by 2030.

Supreme Court Ruled Against Tariffs, Trump Says He Will Now Raise Them

Source: Vox

Donald Trump announced he is raising the newly introduced global tariff from 10% to 15%, just one day after unveiling the lower rate, escalating trade tensions and market uncertainty. The move comes after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6–3 that his prior use of emergency powers to impose sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs was unlawful.

Trump is now using Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows temporary tariffs for up to 150 days without congressional approval, though the policy is likely to face fresh legal challenges. The sudden shift underscores how fluid U.S. trade policy remains, with businesses forced to navigate rapidly changing cost structures. There are also open questions around potential tariff refunds, with as much as $170 billion in collected revenue potentially exposed depending on lower court rulings.

For markets, the bigger issue isn’t just the rate itself — it’s the unpredictability. Trade policy volatility complicates supply chains, earnings forecasts, and inflation expectations at a time when investors are already parsing mixed economic signals.

Meta Agrees to Deploy Millions of Nvidia Chips

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👉 Walmart (+19% YTD) Faces Next Test

Austin Hankwitz — Tue, 17 Feb 2026 12:02:08 +0000

Welcome to your new (and shortened) week in the markets.

Nvidia earnings will take place NEXT week — but there’s still plenty of critical earnings reports between now and then. Let’s see how investors respond after puzzling time in the markets over the last few trading sessions.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Carvana, Doordash, Figma, and Walmart are in the spotlight this week.

Monday (2/16): Presidents Day

Tuesday (2/17): Cadence Design Systems, Devon Energy, Leidos, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, Toll Brothers

Wednesday (2/18): Analog Devices, Carvana, DoorDash, eBay, Figma, Garmin, Kinross Gold, Moody’s, SolarEdge, Verisk

Thursday (2/19): Akamai, Deere, Klarna, Live Nation, Walmart, Wayfair

Friday (2/20): AngloGold Ashanti, Hudbay Minerals, Lamar Advertising, PPL, Western Union

What We’re Watching:

DoorDash (DASH)

DoorDash (-29% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the delivery platform can sustain revenue acceleration and improve profitability as competition and cost pressures persist. DoorDash has carved out a leading position in on-demand delivery, but questions remain about long-term unit economics and how it drives incremental growth beyond core food delivery.

Last quarter, DoorDash delivered $2.87 billion in revenue (+15% YoY) and $0.28 in adjusted EPS, topping expectations as stronger order frequency and marketplace economics helped offset elevated incentives and delivery costs. Marketplace take rate stabilized, and growth in Convenience and Grocery categories showed early promise, though margins remained pressured by promotions and driver pay mix.

This quarter, I’ll be watching order frequency, take rate trends, and margin leverage, particularly in the face of ongoing investment in faster delivery and loyalty initiatives. Commentary on cost discipline, international expansion (if any), and guidance for 2026 marketplace profitability — especially versus rival rivals — will be key for trader sentiment.

DoorDash Inc. (DASH) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.58 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $3.99 billion.
You can explore the most recent DASH investor release here and here.

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Walmart (WMT)

Source: Walmart Earnings Deck

Walmart (+20% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the retail giant can sustain traffic, leverage pricing power, and expand margins as consumers continue to navigate inflationary pressures. Walmart remains a key barometer for U.S. consumer health, given its broad footprint and mix of staple and discretionary categories.

Last quarter, Walmart delivered $161.5 billion in revenue (+7% YoY) and $1.51 in adjusted EPS (+10% YoY), topping expectations as food and consumables remained resilient and price investments helped hold share. U.S. comp sales grew mid-single digits, while international operations and e-commerce continued to contribute meaningfully to the topline.

Heading into this print, I’ll be watching same-store sales trends, the sustainability of price/mix gains, and how gross margin is navigating cost pressures and promotional activity. Commentary around holiday performance, inventory positioning, and forward guidance — particularly in the face of rising wage and freight costs — will be key for market reaction.

Walmart, Inc. (WMT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.72 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $188.43 billion.
You can explore the most recent WMT investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Beef prices are still surging and AI fears in the market continue this week.

Beef Prices Surge as Cattle Shortage Deepens

Beef prices are rising far faster than the broader grocery basket, with the beef and veal category up +15% YoY and uncooked ground beef hitting a fresh record. By contrast, chicken prices are up just +1.1% and milk is little changed – highlighting how concentrated the pressure has become.

The core issue is supply. The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size since the early 1950s, pressured by years of drought, elevated feed and equipment costs, and higher interest rates. Ranchers have opted to sell cattle earlier rather than retain them to rebuild herds, prolonging the contraction cycle. Even if expansion begins now, meaningful supply relief wouldn’t hit grocery shelves until 2028 at the earliest, according to industry analysts.

The Trump administration has moved to increase Argentine beef import quotas and pledged to boost competition in meat processing, but imports primarily affect ground beef and won’t quickly solve the broader herd shortage. Meanwhile, a halt on live cattle imports from Mexico due to parasite concerns adds another layer of supply tightness.

For markets, the takeaway is twofold: protein inflation remains sticky even as broader grocery prices stabilize, and agricultural cycles may keep food-price volatility elevated longer than many expect.

AI Fears Continue to Keep Market Volatile

U.S. equities remain near flat on the year, but beneath the surface, volatility has picked up meaningfully. Artificial intelligence disruption fears have triggered sharp swings across software, insurance, wealth management, and transportation stocks, creating increasingly extreme “AI winners vs. losers” moves.

At the same time, leadership is quietly rotating. While technology – still roughly one-third of the S&P 500 – has slipped more than 4% year-to-date, sectors like energy, materials, industrials, and consumer staples have each gained 10% or more. Small caps have also outperformed, signaling a potential broadening of market participation beyond mega-cap tech.

Investors will be watching whether this rotation proves durable or if tech weakness begins to weigh more heavily on the broader indices.

Major Economic Events:

Durable goods orders, GDP growth rate, and Core PCE are the highlights of the week.

Monday (2/16): Presidents Day

Tuesday (2/17): Empire State manufacturing survey, Home builder confidence index

Wednesday (2/18): Building permits (Dec), Building permits (Nov), Capacity utilization, Durable-goods orders (delayed report), Durable-goods minus transportation, Housing starts (Dec delayed), Housing starts (Nov delayed), Industrial production, Minutes of Fed’s January FOMC meeting

Thursday (2/19): Advanced retail inventories, Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced wholesale inventories, Initial jobless claims, Leading economic index, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, U.S. trade deficit

Friday (2/20): Consumer sentiment (prelim), Core PCE (year over year), Core PCE index, GDP (Q4), New home sales (Dec delayed), New home sales (Nov delayed), PCE (year over year), PCE index, Personal income, Personal spending, S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, S&P flash U.S. services PMI

What We’re Watching:

Durable Goods Orders

New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods jumped 5.3% MoM in November, rebounding sharply from October’s revised 2.1% decline and beating expectations for a 3.7% increase. The headline gain was driven primarily by transportation equipment, which surged 14.7% following a prior drop, as civilian aircraft bookings spiked nearly 98%.

Outside of transportation, momentum was more modest but still constructive. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5%, while core capital goods orders – non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key proxy for business investment – climbed 0.7% after a 0.3% gain in October. Orders also improved across fabricated metals, machinery, electrical equipment, and electronics.

The report suggests underlying business spending remains steady, though the headline strength was heavily influenced by large aircraft orders – a historically volatile component.

Economists expect the following this week:

Durable Goods Orders (MoM): +5.3% vs. -2.1% prior
Core Capital Goods Orders: +0.7% vs. +0.3% prior

GDP Growth Rate

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 4.4% in Q3, slightly above the prior 4.3% estimate and marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023. The upward revision reflected stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories, reinforcing the view that economic momentum remained solid heading into year-end.

Growth was driven by firm consumer spending (+3.5%), a sharp rebound in exports (+9.6%), and renewed government outlays (+2.2%). Imports declined another 4.4%, helping boost net trade. Meanwhile, the inventory drag eased significantly, subtracting just 0.12 percentage points from growth versus a hefty 3.44-point drag in Q2

On the softer side, fixed investment slowed sharply to +0.8% from +4.4% in Q2, signaling some cooling in business spending even as overall growth remained strong.

Economists expect the following this week:

Q3 GDP (Final): +4.4% vs. +4.3% prior estimate
Consumer Spending: +3.5% vs. +2.5% in Q2

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👉 A Very Rare "Surge in Stock Blowups"

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 16 Feb 2026 21:47:51 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Robinhood now holds $324 billion in total platform assets.
Cloudflare’s free cash flow doubled to $100M.
Shopify announced a $2 billion share buyback program.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

A surge in blowups has the market spooked.
Apple wants to take podcasting more seriously.
Anthropic has become the most talked-about name in the game.

Economic Updates:

Inflation came in lower than expected.
Retail sales feel like they need a boost.

👉 Portfolio Updates

No material updates to share, simply dollar cost averaging into the names talked about last week.

Here’s a link to that post!

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Robinhood now holds $324 billion in total platform assets, Cloudflare’s free cash flow doubled to $100M, and Shopify announced a $2 billion share buyback program.

Robinhood (HOOD)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $1.3 billion, an increase of +27% YoY

Operating Income: $650.0 million, an increase of +17% YoY

Profits: $605.0 million, compared to $916.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"Our vision hasn't changed: we are building the Financial SuperApp. 2025 was a record year where we set new highs for net deposits, Gold Subscribers, trading volumes, revenues, and profits. We are going to look back and realize we underestimated how big our international business can be."

My Takeaway

Cloudflare (NET)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $614.5 million, an increase of +34% YoY

Operating Loss: -$49.2 million, compared to $34.7 million last year

Net Loss: -$12.1 million, compared to $12.8 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"We delivered our strongest quarter of the year, with revenue growth accelerating to 34%. We are seeing a 'rip and replace' cycle where large enterprises are ditching legacy hardware firewalls for our cloud-native Zero Trust platform. Workers AI is now processing over a billion requests a day, and we are becoming the default connectivity layer for the AI ecosystem."

My Takeaway

Shopify (SHOP)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $3.7 billion, an increase of +31% YoY

Operating Income: $631.0 million, an increase of +36% YoY

Profits: $743.0 million, compared to $1.3 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

"We are literally setting the standard on how the world will shop with AI. We co-developed the Universal Commerce Protocol with Google, which means Shopify is now the default connectivity layer for the entire AI shopping ecosystem. Whether a transaction happens on a storefront, in a chat window, or through an autonomous AI agent, it settles on Shopify."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

A surge in blowups has the market spooked, Apple wants to take podcasting more seriously, and Anthropic has become the most talked-about name in the game.

Extremely Rare Market Activity

Over the last eight trading sessions, at least 115 S&P 500 stocks have fallen -7% or more in a single day — a level of internal damage that historically coincides with deep bear markets. Yet the index itself is sitting just -2% below all-time highs, a massive divergence between headline strength and underlying weakness.

In past instances when this many stocks saw extreme one-day drops within eight days, the average drawdown for the index was -34%, with the last similar setup near record highs occurring during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble. In 2008, this threshold wasn’t hit until the market was already deep in a bear market — making today’s backdrop unusually concentrated and narrow.

Apple (AAPL) to Challenge Spotify (SPOT) and YouTube (GOOG) in Video Podcasting

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👉 The Dollar is Dumping

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 09 Feb 2026 14:57:36 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

If you didn’t catch our latest recap of the past week in the markets, click here.

Whether it’s a wide array of earnings report results, geopolitical tensions, AI news, energy developments, or anything in between — the market wants ANSWERS.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Coca-Cola, Coinbase, Robinhood, Shopify, and much more.

Monday (2/9): Apollo Global Management, Cleveland-Cliffs, CNA Financial, Kyndryl, Onsemi, Opendoor, Sally Beauty, Steel Dynamics

Tuesday (2/10): AIG, Coca-Cola, CVS Health, Datadog, Ford Motor, Robinhood, Spotify, Upstart

Wednesday (2/11): Cisco Systems, Humana, HubSpot, Kraft Heinz, McDonald’s, Shopify, Unity Software

Thursday (2/12): Arista Networks, Coinbase, Crocs, DraftKings, Pinterest, Zoetis

Friday (2/13): Advance Auto Parts, Applied Materials, Cameco, Enbridge, Moderna, Rivian, Wendy’s

What We’re Watching:

Coca-Cola (KO)

Source: Valuesense.io

The Coca‑Cola Company (+13.5% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether pricing power, mix shifts, and global volume trends can sustain both top-line growth and margin expansion in a slowing consumer backdrop. Coca-Cola sits at the intersection of consumer staples resilience and discretionary spending pressures, making its results an important barometer for broader consumer trends heading into 2026.

Last quarter, Coca-Cola delivered $11.8 billion in revenue (+6% YoY) and $0.73 in EPS (+8% YoY), topping expectations as price increases and a favorable product mix offset volume softness in some markets. Emerging markets continued to post solid gains, while North America benefited from strength in sparkling beverages and premium mixers.

As the company reports Q4 results, I’ll be watching global unit case trends, how the company balances pricing versus volume, and whether cost efficiencies can offset input inflation. Guidance for 2026, especially around marketing spend, supply-chain priorities, and currency impacts, will also be key sentiment drivers.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.54 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $12.05 billion.
You can explore the most recent KO investor release here and here.

Robinhood (HOOD)

Robinhood Markets (-26.7% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors watching whether the retail brokerage can sustain engagement and monetization in a challenging trading environment. Robinhood remains a leading platform for individual investors, but slower retail activity and competitive pressures – including fee compression and new entrants — have made consistency in revenue and profitability key focus areas.

Last quarter, Robinhood delivered $707 million in revenue (+2% YoY) and $0.08 in adjusted EPS, slightly ahead of expectations as options trading and crypto revenues helped offset a pullback in equities and cash-interest income. Active user metrics and engagement trends were stable but lacked a clear acceleration signal, leaving questions around the sustainability of growth.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching active users, engagement rates, and net new funded accounts, as well as trends in crypto and options volumes – two areas that have historically driven episodic upside. Commentary on expense discipline, reinvestment strategies, and guidance for 2026 will also be critical for sentiment, especially as Robinhood looks to broaden revenue streams beyond core brokerage.

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.64 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $1.34 billion.
You can explore the most recent HOOD investor release here and here.

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Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Eyes on the U.S. dollar, online sports betting companies recap their Super Bowl performances, and Sam Altman provides reassurance on OpenAI’s reach.

Eyes on Dollar

Source: ABC News

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as investors reassess America’s global role, trade policy, and the future path of monetary easing. Nearly a year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs sparked a sharp selloff, the greenback has yet to reclaim its prior highs, even as it traditionally serves as a global safe haven.

Markets are increasingly weighing policy uncertainty and Fed leadership risk, particularly as Trump has signaled a preference for aggressive rate cuts and floated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Chair. While the dollar still anchors the global financial system, capital has been rotating toward alternative hedges – including the euro, Swiss franc, gold, and select commodities – amid rising geopolitical tension and questions around U.S. economic stewardship.

Gold’s powerful rally, alongside strength in other hard assets and foreign currencies, underscores growing demand for diversification. Strategists caution that this is not outright dollar debasement — but rather the early stages of a structural reassessment that could play out over years, not weeks.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Currency Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Super Bowl Betting Recap

Source: AP Photo / Matt Slocum

Sports betting companies will be in focus following the Super Bowl, with DraftKings and FanDuel under the microscope as analysts assess Q1 “hold” rates. The outcome of the game matters because sportsbooks have posted weaker-than-normal “hold” results in each of the last two Super Bowls, as betting outcomes favored the public rather than the house.

We’ll also be eagerly waiting to hear from sports betting companies about how much of their Super Bowl business was taken by prediction markets. Polymarket and Kalshi (with Robinhood) have directly stolen substantial fund flows from the legacy betting players. It will be interesting to learn the extent of the damage from this year’s big game.

DraftKings, Inc. (DKNG) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Sam Altman Tells Employees ChatGPT Growth Is Reaccelerating as OpenAI Nears $100B Funding

Source: Tomohiro Ohsumi | Getty Images

Sam Altman told employees that OpenAI’s chatbot ChatGPT is “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” signaling renewed momentum amid rising competition. OpenAI plans to launch an updated ChatGPT model this week, as more than 800 million people now use the product weekly.

The company has declared a “code red” to improve ChatGPT as rivals like Anthropic gain traction, particularly in AI coding tools. Altman said OpenAI’s coding product Codex grew about 50% week over week, calling its recent growth “insane” after the launch of a new Codex model and a Mac app.

At the same time, OpenAI is preparing to begin limited testing of ads in ChatGPT, which will be clearly labeled and placed at the bottom of responses, with ads expected to account for less than half of long-term revenue. Altman and CFO Sarah Friar are pitching this growth story to investors as OpenAI moves toward closing a potential $100 billion funding round, with backing discussions involving partners like SoftBank, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon.

Major Economic Events:

Inflation readings, overdue retail sales data, small business outlooks, and Fed speeches highlight this week.

Monday (2/9): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Fed Governor Stephen Miran podcast interview, Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks

Tuesday (2/10): Business inventories (delayed report), Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks, Employment Cost Index, Import price index (delayed report), Import price index minus fuel, NFIB optimism index, Retail sales (delayed report), Retail sales minus autos

Wednesday (2/11): Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks, Monthly U.S. federal budget, U.S. employment report, U.S. hourly wages, U.S. unemployment rate, Wages year over year

Thursday (2/12): Existing home sales, Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks, Initial jobless claims

Friday (2/13): Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, Core CPI year over year, CPI year over year

What We’re Watching:

Consumer Price Index

U.S. headline inflation held at 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. The stability masked a meaningful cooldown in energy prices, with energy inflation slowing to +2.3% (from +4.2%), driven by falling gasoline prices (-3.4%) and softer fuel oil inflation. Used car prices also decelerated sharply, easing to +1.6% YoY.

At the same time, food (+3.1%) and shelter (+3.2%) inflation accelerated, keeping overall price pressures uneven. Shelter costs once again accounted for the largest share of the monthly increase, rising +0.4% MoM.

Core CPI – which strips out food and energy – held at 2.6% YoY, the lowest level since 2021 and below expectations for an uptick. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose +0.3%, in line with forecasts, while core CPI increased just +0.2%, undershooting expectations.

Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline CPI (MoM): +0.3% vs. +0.3% prior
• Core CPI (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.2% prior
• Core CPI (YoY): 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior

Retail Sales

U.S. retail sales rose +0.6% MoM in November, the strongest monthly gain since July, rebounding sharply from October’s revised -0.1% decline and beating expectations for a +0.4% increase.

Gains were broad-based, led by sporting goods & hobbies (+1.9%), miscellaneous retailers (+1.7%), gasoline stations (+1.4%), building & garden suppliers (+1.3%), motor vehicle dealers (+1.0%), and clothing (+0.9%). Spending at restaurants & bars (+0.6%) and online retailers (+0.4%) also remained firm. By contrast, sales were flat at general merchandise and electronics stores, while furniture sales slipped slightly.

Importantly, core retail sales – which feed directly into GDP – rose +0.4%, showing that consumer spending continues to remain strong.

Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline Retail Sales (MoM): +0.6% vs. -0.1% prior
• Core Retail Sales (MoM): +0.4% vs. -0.2% prior

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👉 Amazon is Spending $200B on Data Centers in 2026

Austin Hankwitz — Sun, 08 Feb 2026 18:09:18 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

PepsiCo raised their dividend for the 54th consecutive year in a row.
Amazon is going to spend $200B in 2026 on data centers.
Google’s Cloud business is generating $5B a quarter in operating income.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Software stocks have been selling off like crazy.
The U.S. and India reached an interim trade deal.
Hims & Hers was forced to stop selling newly-announced weight-loss drugs.

Economic Updates:

January layoffs hit highest start of the year since 2009.
ADP payrolls missed expectations.

👉 Portfolio Updates

As you all might remember from last week’s newsletter, the portfolio is changing a bit. After exiting most of my crypto position, I’m now using that money to optimize for volatility with international exposure and energy. This optimization has already begun — as I started using that money to buy the following this week:

VOO — 35%
QQQ — 20%
MLPI — 12%
VXUS — 8%
IEMG — 8%
PAVE — 8%
URA — 4%
ILF — 4%

I tweaked the weightings a bit to more so favor energy and developed international over emerging — but all-in-all the same strategy and exposure shared last week. Very excited for this!

From an overall markets perspective, a few things are standing out to me:

1) SaaS is getting destroyed — and for good reason.

There around countless SaaS companies, probably north of 80% of all that exist at this moment in time, whose total addressable market is now shrinking while simultaneously losing (or will start losing) market share to AI-built apps and agents. It’s important to understand this sector of the market is NOT getting destroyed because their earnings are collapsing — this is purely multiple compression. Investors were happy to pay 30X forward free cash flow for a company — now they only want to pay 20X, or less. That simply means investor confidence is declining. Investors are less confident that company will be able to deliver free cash flow into the future, therefore they’re only willing to pay 20X vs. 30X for it.

I believe a few SaaS companies are still doing very well and will come out of this ahead. Databricks is a great example. There are “SaaS applications” like mentioned above, and there is “data infrastructure.” I believe Databricks, being a “data infrastructure” company, will benefit from their AI agents building bespoke AI applications at scale. The company is not yet publicly-traded, but will be offered later this year. I’m very excited to participate.

2) The most speculative stocks put in ATHs late-2025

As you all might remember from the Covid-induced bubble we experienced in the stock market during 2020 and 2021 — before the indices peaked in December 2021, SPACs and other unprofitable technology names (ARKK is a great gauge of these) put in their all-time highs in Q1 2021. By the time the indices finally rolled over, more than half of the names inside the Nasdaq-100 were trading at 52-week lows.

We’ve begun to see this take shape. Names like Oklo, Robinhood, Palantir, Ionq, and countless other momentum (high-beta) names that retail loved in 2025 have seemingly put in their all-time highs and are now in durable down drafts — a series of lower highs and lower lows. Is this foreshadowing for what’s to come from the indices? Hard to say, but this is another reason why I’m actively buying energy and international.

3) Crypto turmoil

I would argue that crypto remains in a bear market. We’re experiencing a much needed relief rally at the moment, but I do not believe the bottom is in. We must clear the 20-week moving average with conviction before I can begin to get optimistic again. In all other Bitcoin bear markets, decisively clearing this marked the bottom.

With that being said, ETFs like BTCI remain incredible ways to build a position in Bitcoin here at the lows. This covered call ETF gives exposure to Bitcoin while simultaneously offering a ~28% yield on your investment (via covered calls). Get paid essentially 30% yield per year to wait for Bitcoin to find a bottom? Sounds good to me. This is what I’ll be doing.

Let me be clear — I have no idea where the bottom will be for Bitcoin. Knowing no one can time the bottom, it’s a great idea to get some exposure around the $40-60K range and get paid to own it until it rallies back toward $100K over the coming quarters and years.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

PepsiCo raised their dividend for the 54th consecutive year in a row, Amazon is going to spend $200B in 2026 on data centers, and Google’s Cloud business is now generating $5B a quarter in operating income.

PepsiCo (PEP)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $29.4 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $3.6 billion, an increase of +58% YoY

Profits: $2.5 billion, an increase of +67% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“PepsiCo's fourth quarter results reflected a sequential acceleration in reported and organic revenue growth. We are playing offense. We have begun testing affordability tactics at scale... focusing on particular brands, formats, and channels where we see the biggest friction for low- and middle-income consumers.

We expect Frito-Lay to grow volume, net revenue, and operating margin this year."

My Takeaway

Amazon (AMZN)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $213.4 billion, an increase of +14% YoY

Operating Income: $25.0 billion, an increase of +18% YoY

Profits: $21.2 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, predominantly in AWS. I know that number sounds large, but it is a direct reflection of the demand we are seeing. Customers are queuing up for capacity, and we are monetizing that capacity as fast as we can install it. This is not 'build it and they will come'—this is 'they are here, and we need to build it.”

My Takeaway

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $113.8 billion, an increase of +18% YoY

Operating Income: $35.9 billion, an increase of +16% YoY

Profits: $34.5 billion, an increase of +30% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“It was a tremendous quarter, with annual revenues exceeding $400 billion for the first time. We are seeing our AI investments and infrastructure drive revenue and growth across the board. Gemini 3 is now the engine for the world's most successful software companies, and Google Cloud ended 2025 at an annual run rate of over $70 billion."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Software stocks have been selling off like crazy, the U.S. and India reached an interim trade deal, and Hims & Hers was forced to stop selling newly-announced weight-loss drugs.

The “SaaSpocalypse” Accelerated Last Week

Source: Gabby Jones / Bloomberg

The sharp “SaaSpocalypse” selloff in software stocks was triggered by a mix of weak earnings, rapid improvements in AI models, and new automation tools from Anthropic that spooked investors about long-term disruption. Fears that AI could replace or sharply reduce the need for traditional software subscriptions helped drive the Nasdaq 100 to its worst two-day drop since October, wiping out more than $550 billion in market value, with SaaS names hit hardest.

Software-as-a-service companies rely on per-user subscription fees, and investors worry that AI agents automating work could reduce the number of paid users or make standalone SaaS platforms less essential. Stocks tied to enterprise software and data — including providers like Microsoft and Salesforce — fell sharply, pushing a Goldman Sachs software basket roughly 25% below its September peak.

Not everyone agrees with the panic, as Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang called the selloff “illogical,” arguing AI will enhance software rather than replace it, a view echoed by SaaS firms investing heavily in AI integrations. Ultimately, Anthropic’s plug-ins became a symbol of a broader fear: that increasingly capable, AI-centric tools could upend not just individual products, but the entire economics of the traditional SaaS model.

The U.S. and India Reached an Interim Trade Deal

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👉 Breaking Down Corning Inc. ($GLW)

GRIT — Thu, 05 Feb 2026 18:15:33 +0000

Good afternoon.

We’re thrilled to share a comprehensive breakdown of a stock that’s quietly up +110% over the past year.

As a reminder, this specific deep-dive is written by the GRIT team and is not the exclusive work of Head Analyst Austin Hankwitz.

Stock Deep Dive: Corning (GLW-US, $91B)

Corning is not just a “glass company.” It is a critical supplier to the AI and data-center buildout, sitting in the part of the stack most investors underweight: the physical infrastructure that makes compute usable at scale.

AI does not only need more GPUs. It needs more bandwidth, more interconnect density, and more fiber.

That is the quiet constraint behind the loud headlines.

While the market obsesses over chips, Corning sells the plumbing: optical fiber, cable, and specialty materials that determine whether a data center can actually move data fast enough to keep expensive compute fully utilized. And because these components are qualified, embedded, and hard to swap, wins can translate into durable demand rather than one-off orders.

This piece breaks down why the setup is improving, how Corning wins, what is driving the numbers, and where the risks still live, with a clear takeaway: if AI is the new CapEx cycle, Corning is increasingly one of the enablers investors cannot ignore.

Why Now 👉 Landmark Deal Inked
Overview 👉 What Does Corning Do?
How Do They Win? 👉 Value Proposition
Business Units 👉 Breaking Down the Segments
How Do They Make Money? 👉 Unit Sales with Long-term Supply Agreements
By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics
Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls

Why Now 👉 Landmark Deal Inked

Corning’s core products (specialty glass and optical fiber) are at the heart of today’s AI and data-center boom. Generative AI demands dramatically more network capacity. Analysts note it can require roughly 10 times the fiber links per data center. Corning is capitalizing on this surge: in 2024 it agreed to supply next-generation fiber cable to Lumen (reserving ~10% of its global fiber capacity), enabling Lumen to more than double its U.S. intercity fiber network for AI workloads. In January 2026 Corning struck a multiyear (up to $6B) deal with Meta to provide advanced optical fiber, cables and connectivity for Meta’s U.S. AI data centers. These partnerships underline how Corning’s products are being tapped to “power next-generation data centers” for AI.

Source: Company Filings

Policy tailwinds further strengthen Corning’s position. Under the CHIPS Act, Corning earned ~$32M in funding to expand U.S. production of high-purity fused silica and ultra-low-expansion glass for DUV/EUV lithography which are essential materials for cutting-edge chipmaking. This supports onshore semiconductor supply chains that rely on Corning’s glass. Likewise, infrastructure spending is boosting fiber demand. Corning invested over $500M since 2020 in a new optical-cable campus in North Carolina, nearly doubling U.S. cable output to meet rising broadband needs. This aligns with federal broadband programs (e.g. BEAD) and “Buy America” requirements, ensuring Corning’s fiber is made domestically. Even on sustainability fronts, fiber networks are “green” due to fiber-optic links using far less power (and cooling) than copper, helping data centers cut energy use. Overall, secular trends in AI, data infrastructure, and government investment are converging to create a potent “why now” for Corning.

Overview 👉 What Does Corning Do?

Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW) is a leading materials-science company, 170+ years old, specializing in specialty glass, ceramics and optical materials. It has pioneered iconic products like Gorilla Glass (tough, lightweight cover glass for phones and tablets) and the world’s first low-loss fiber-optic cable (invented in 1970). Corning serves diverse markets with five main segments.

Its Display Technologies unit makes the thin, fusion-processed glass substrates for LCD/OLED screens (TVs, laptops, monitors). Optical Communications builds fibers, cables and connectivity equipment for telecom and data networks. Environmental Technologies produces ceramic substrates and filters for vehicle emission controls (catalytic converters). Specialty Materials covers over 150 formulations, most famously Corning Gorilla Glass for mobile devices, plus precision optics for semiconductors, aerospace, defense, and more. Finally, Life Sciences supplies laboratory glassware, plastic cell-culture vessels and media under brands like Corning, Falcon and PYREX, serving biotech, pharma and research labs.

Corning’s glass and optical innovations are built into an ecosystem ranging from smartphones and flat-panel displays to cars, data centers and medical labs.

How Do They Win? 👉 Value Proposition

Proprietary Glass IP and R&D: Corning invests heavily in innovation (about $1.1 B in R&D in 2023) to develop advanced glass and optics. Its proprietary formulations (e.g. Gorilla Glass’s deep chemical-strengthening, or its ultra-pure fused silica) are backed by extensive patents. This cutting-edge IP is hard for competitors to match.

Manufacturing Scale and Efficiency: Corning operates massive, highly automated plants. For example, it is expanding two of the world’s largest fiber-cable facilities in North Carolina to meet demand. Its specialized processes (like the fusion process for display glass) and decades of manufacturing know-how give it cost and scale advantages over smaller rivals.

Quality and Reliability: Customers trust Corning for high-quality materials and a reliable supply chain. The company stresses product quality and consistency. It is the #1 global supplier of premium display glass and is widely used in critical network infrastructure, reflecting a reputation for reliability.

Strategic Customer Partnerships: Corning often locks in long-term deals and design wins with major OEMs and carriers. Recent examples include the supply agreements with Meta and Lumen, which commit customers to Corning’s new fiber solutions. Its Gorilla Glass is an entrenched standard in many smartphones (e.g. Apple’s products). These partnerships create “sticky” revenue streams and a platform for content expansion.

Diversified End Markets: Corning’s breadth across consumer electronics, telecom, automotive emissions, life sciences, etc., means that growth in one area can offset slowdowns in another. It can also cross-sell innovations across markets (for instance, a new ultra-strong glass formula might be used in both smartphones and vehicle windshields). This diversification helps stabilize its business over cycles.

Business Units 👉 Breaking Down the Segments

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👉 Major Earnings Reports Continue

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:57:29 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

The past week in the markets was one of the most volatile we’ve seen in many months. Let’s get you prepared for everything you can expect this go-round.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Alphabet, Amazon, AMD, Palantir, and Uber highlight a very busy week of earnings.

Monday (2/2): Aptiv, IDEXX Laboratories, Palantir, Teradyne, Tyson Foods, Walt Disney

Tuesday (2/3): Advanced Micro Devices, Chipotle, Merck, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Super Micro Computer

Wednesday (2/4): AbbVie, Alphabet, Arm Holdings, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Uber

Thursday (2/5): Amazon, Bristol Myers Squibb, ConocoPhillips, Estee Lauder, Roblox, Shell

Friday (2/6): Biogen, Centene, Cboe Global Markets, Toyota Motor, Under Armour

What We’re Watching:

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Source: Alphabet Q3 Earnings Deck

Alphabet (+8% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the company’s core ad business, cloud momentum, and AI initiatives can deliver durable growth and margin leverage in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Last quarter, Alphabet posted $96.4 billion in revenue (+14% YoY) and $2.31 in EPS (+22% YoY), above consensus, driven by strength in Search, YouTube, and a +32% jump in Google Cloud to roughly $13.6 billion. Despite heavy investment in AI infrastructure and products like Gemini, operating margin remained resilient at ~32%, underscoring the company’s ability to balance growth with profitability.

For this quarter, key items to watch include advertising demand trends, particularly international and YouTube monetization; Cloud growth and profitability trajectory; and early signals from AI product adoption and monetization across Search, Workspace, and developer offerings. Any updates on capex direction, competitive positioning versus Microsoft and Amazon in cloud, and strategic commentary around AI investments could be major catalysts.

Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $2.64 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $111.45 billion.
You can explore the most recent GOOGL investor release here and here.

Amazon (AMZN)

Source: Amazon Q3 Earnings Deck

Amazon (+4% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Thursday after the close, with investors focused on whether accelerating AWS growth and AI-driven demand can offset ongoing margin pressure from fulfillment costs and heavy infrastructure spending. Amazon remains a bellwether for both consumer health and enterprise cloud investment, making this print especially consequential for broader market sentiment.

Last quarter, Amazon delivered $157.4 billion in revenue (+11% YoY) and $1.00 in EPS, beating expectations as AWS growth reaccelerated to +19% YoY and operating income expanded across both North America and International segments. Management highlighted rising demand for generative AI workloads, stronger advertising performance, and continued efficiency gains in fulfillment — though capex remained elevated as Amazon scaled data centers and logistics capacity.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching whether AWS growth can push back above the 20% range, how quickly AI-related revenue translates into margin expansion, and whether retail profitability continues to improve amid stabilizing consumer demand. Commentary on 2026 capex, AI monetization (Bedrock, custom silicon), and advertising momentum will be key drivers for the stock’s next move.

Amazon, Inc. (AMZN) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $1.95 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $211.18 billion.
You can explore the most recent AMZN investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Numerous IPOs are coming, Nvidia’s relationship with OpenAI is being more closely analyzed, and more details on the sell-off in the crypto market.

IPO Rush

Source: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo

It’s a busy week for new listings, with several companies set to make their public-market debuts, testing investor appetite amid elevated volatility and selective risk-taking. Trading is expected to begin for VeraDermics, Once Upon a Farm, Eikon Therapeutics, Bob's Discount Furniture, Liftoff Mobile, and Forgent Power Solutions — spanning healthcare, consumer, and tech.

For markets, the mix of fresh IPOs will offer a timely read on risk appetite, valuation discipline, and demand for new equity issuance heading into the heart of earnings season.

Nvidia–OpenAI Investment Narrative in Focus

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on reports that the company had committed to a $100B investment in OpenAI, clarifying that any participation would be non-binding and evaluated round by round. Huang emphasized that while Nvidia remains highly supportive of OpenAI’s mission and expects to invest “a great deal,” there was never a firm pledge at that scale.

The clarification follows reports suggesting internal debate at Nvidia around deal discipline and the optics of large AI partnerships, particularly as OpenAI is both a strategic partner and a major buyer of Nvidia’s chips. Similar concerns have surfaced around Nvidia’s growing financial ties with customers like CoreWeave, reinforcing investor scrutiny of “circular” AI funding structures.

For markets, the key watch this week is whether Nvidia provides more detail on the size, timing, and structure of any OpenAI investment — and how management frames capital allocation discipline as AI infrastructure spending continues to balloon across the ecosystem.

Sell-Off in the Crypto Market

Crypto markets start the week under pressure after a sharp weekend selloff pushed Bitcoin below $75,000 for the first time since October 2024. The move triggered an estimated $2.5 billion in liquidations, as leverage was flushed across majors and altcoins.

Bitcoin briefly traded near $74,900, down more than 6% on the day and roughly 10% YTD, with selling pressure coming from both spot ETFs and miners. Adding to the tension, Bitcoin has surpassed a key psychological and market-structure level near $76,000 — the average purchase price of Michael Saylor’s Strategy holdings. The firm currently owns 712,647 BTC, acquired for roughly $54.2 billion at an average cost of $76,037 per coin.

This week, markets will be watching whether BTC can reclaim key technical levels, how ETF flows evolve after the drawdown, and whether broader macro catalysts – rates, the dollar, and equities – either stabilize crypto or extend the unwind.

Major Economic Events:

The U.S. jobs report will be the main event of the week.

Monday (2/2): Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing, S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday (2/3): ISM Services, Job Openings (JOLTS), S&P Final U.S. Services PMI

Wednesday (2/4): ADP Employment Report

Thursday (2/5): Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks, Initial Jobless Claims

Friday (2/6): Consumer Credit, Consumer Sentiment (Prelim), U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Hourly Wages Year Over Year, U.S. Unemployment Rate

What We’re Watching:

Job Openings

U.S. job openings fell sharply to 7.15 million in November, down 303,000 from October and well below expectations for 7.60 million. The reading marks the lowest level since September 2024.

Declines were concentrated in cyclical and consumer-facing sectors, with openings falling in accommodation & food services (-148K), transportation and warehousing (-108K), and wholesale trade (-63K). Construction was a notable outlier, posting a +90K increase. Regionally, job openings declined across all four major areas, led by the South and Midwest. Importantly, hires and separations held steady at 5.1 million, with quits and layoffs unchanged.

Economists expect the following this week:

Job Openings: 7.15M vs. 7.45M prior
Quits Rate: ~3.2M vs. 3.2M prior

Non-Farm Payrolls

U.S. payroll growth cooled further in December, with the economy adding 50,000 jobs, below both November’s downwardly revised 56K and expectations for 60K.

Job gains remained concentrated in services, led by food services & drinking places (+27K), health care (+21K), and social assistance (+17K). Retail trade shed 25K jobs, while most other sectors – including construction, manufacturing, financial activities, and professional services – saw little to no change. Prior months were also revised lower, with October and November payrolls combined revised down by 76K.

For full-year 2025, payrolls rose by 584K, averaging just 49K per month, a sharp slowdown from the 2.0 million jobs added in 2024. The data points to a labor market that is losing steam without tipping into outright contraction.

Economists expect the following this week:

Nonfarm Payrolls: +50K vs. +56K prior
Average Monthly Job Growth (2025): ~49K vs. ~167K in 2024

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👉 The iPhone 17 "Supercycle"

Austin Hankwitz — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 23:11:46 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Microsoft lost $440B in market cap as investors question the strength of their remaining performance obligations.
Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses’ revenue increased by +200%.
Apple’s China-specific revenue exploded by +38%.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Gold & silver had their worst day since 1980.
The crypto bear market accelerated over the weekend.
Elon Musk might pull off one of the craziest company mergers of all time.

Economic Updates:

The U.S. government is (partially) shut down once again.
Kevin Warsh was picked to lead the Fed.
Jerome Powell announced the Fed is keeping to its “loosely neutral” stance.

👉 Portfolio Updates

I’ve decided to exit 90% of my crypto position earlier this week. No, I wasn’t able to time the top at $127K as I was waiting for a relief rally back to the 200-day moving average. However, I was able to side-step this disgusting sell-off.

In my opinion, we’ll experience a near-term relief rally, maybe chop sideways in the process, put in a lower high, before an ultimate dump to $40-60K in Bitcoin (pulling alt coins down with it). I firmly believe around October 2026 Bitcoin will be at or around a price worth nibbling at. The goal is not to perfectly time the ups and downs, but instead to be majority right on major moves over a multi-year time horizon.

At the moment, I believe Bitcoin remains in a bear market and there are more interesting places to invest for 2026. Let’s talk about this more interesting places — starting with a handful of ETFs.

Beyond the VOO and QQQ ETFs I’ll always own, I’m going to be re-allocating Bitcoin proceeds to the following:

IEMG — this is an emerging markets play. I believe emerging markets will continue to outperform as we’re in a mid-term election year, the dollar declines, commodities continue their ‘super cycle,’ and valuations seem historically low.

PAVE — a simple play on AI infrastructure for the coming 5-10 years.

MLPI — I believe energy is breaking out of a sideways multi-year consolidation, and MLPs will benefit greatly. Using NEOS’ ETF to generate some extra income along the way in case I’m wrong and Trump somehow causes crude oil to remain low.

VXUS — emerging markets + developed markets. Non-USA as we’re navigating a mid-term election year.

ILF — I believe this ETF offers exposure to an interesting opportunity. Brazil’s interest rates have peaked, causing liquidity to flood back into equities and borrowing. Mexico is evolving from “cheap labor” to “strategic re-shoring” for USA-based companies. Then sprinkle on top of this their deep value and the dividends and you have an awesome margin of safety (8-12X forward P/E compared to SPX’s 23X).

URA — I believe the nuclear energy theme is still in the early innings.

The above are ETFs I plan to own for years to come. Not instead of Bitcoin, but alongside Bitcoin. I still own ~10% of my Bitcoin position, and plan to keep that in perpetuity. As mentioned above, when we see crypto start to hopefully put in a bear market bottom during Q4 of this year I’ll begin to nibble and build that position back up like I did in 2023.

Additionally, I plan to buy 500 shares of Amazon stock. I don’t plan to do this immediately, I’ll likely buy a few before earning this week and most of this position after earnings — but I plan to have these shares in the coming weeks, maybe a month or so depending on the macro environment. I’ll sell covered calls against these shares to generate a “risk-free” 3-4% annual yield on my position.

I believe Amazon is going to be one of, if not the biggest beneficiary from the rise AI in the long-term. Their AWS business, their advertising business, their shipping business — so many things can go right for this company over the coming 3-5 years because of AI that would double their annual operating cash flow; sending their stock up 2-4X over that period of time.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Microsoft lost $440B in market cap as investors question the strength of their remaining performance obligations, Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses’ revenue increased by +200%, and Apple’s China-specific revenue exploded by +38%.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $81.3 billion, an increase of +17% YoY

Operating Income: $38.3 billion, an increase of +21% YoY

Profits: $38.5 billion, an increase of +60% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises. Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion this quarter, reflecting the strong demand for our portfolio of services. We are moving from talking about AI to applying AI at scale."

My Takeaway

Meta Platforms (META)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $59.9 billion, an increase of +24% YoY

Operating Income: $24.7 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Profits: $22.8 billion, an increase of +9% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We ended 2025 strong, with more than 3.5 billion people now using at least one of our apps every day. Our business performed very well, thanks to record-breaking holiday demand and AI-driven performance gains. We are now seeing a major AI acceleration. I expect 2026 to be a year where this wave accelerates even further on several fronts. We're starting to see agents really work."

My Takeaway

Apple (AAPL)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $143.8 billion, an increase of +16% YoY

Operating Income: $50.9 billion, an increase of +19% YoY

Profits: $42.1 billion, an increase of +16% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

"We are reporting our best-ever quarter with $143.8 billion in revenue, up 16% from a year ago. The demand for iPhone 17 was simply staggering, with revenue growing 23% year-over-year and setting all-time records across every geographic segment. We continue to see momentum in emerging markets, particularly in China, where our new AI features are driving a record number of switchers."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Gold & silver had their worst day since 1980, the crypto bear market accelerated over the weekend, and Elon Musk might pull off one of the craziest company mergers of all time.

Gold & Silver Have Worst Day Since 1980 After Fed Chair Announcement

Gold and silver suffered their worst one-day declines since 1980, with silver plunging -31% and gold posting a record single-day dollar drop after months of parabolic gains. The selloff was triggered by reports that President Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh, viewed by Wall Street as hawkish on inflation, to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.

That expectation eased fears of currency debasement, strengthened the dollar to its best day in months, and rapidly unwound the popular “debasement trade” that had fueled precious metals. Gold futures fell -11% while the sharp reversal caught investors across central banks, vaults, and trading desks off guard due to thin liquidity and crowded positioning.

The move weighed on mining stocks and broader markets, pushing the S&P 500 and Dow down 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.9%. Analysts say the plunge likely reflects a mix of profit-taking, risk management, and fragile market structure rather than retail panic, even as uncertainty remains about what precisely drove such extreme volatility.

More on the Fed Chair announcement below!

Bitcoin Broke Below $80K During Intense Weekend Selloff

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👉 Jam-Packed January Ending Soon...

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 14:57:20 +0000

Together with Quantify Funds

Welcome to your new week.

Let’s be honest — this has been an exhausting start to the year in the markets. Just a few things that will be in focus this week…

Major earnings reports
The largest cryptos like BTC and ETH risking substantial drops to the downside
Fed meeting
Greenland
Iran
Japan
Government shutdown lingering
And so much more…

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Key Earnings Announcements:

103 S&P 500 companies report this week — including an important commercial / defense manufacturer + big tech giants.

Monday (1/26): AGNC, Baker Hughes, Nucor, Ryanair, Steel Dynamics

Tuesday (1/27): Boeing, General Motors, Northrop Grumman, Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth Group, UPS

Wednesday (1/28): ASML, AT&T, IBM, Lam Research, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Starbucks, Tesla

Thursday (1/29): Apple, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Visa, Western Digital

Friday (1/30): American Express, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Verizon, Charter Communications, SoFi

What We’re Watching:

Boeing (BA)

Boeing (+16.1% YTD) reports Q4 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether operational stabilization and improving aircraft deliveries can begin to translate into better cash flow after another turbulent year.

Last quarter, Boeing posted $18.1 billion in revenue (+4% YoY) but continued to burn cash as production disruptions, regulatory scrutiny, and higher costs weighed on results. Commercial Airplanes deliveries improved modestly, while Defense & Space remained pressured by fixed-price contract charges. Management reiterated its goal of stabilizing 737 MAX production and improving execution across programs.

For this report, I’ll be watching delivery cadence for the 737 MAX, free cash flow trajectory, and any updates on regulatory oversight and quality controls. Commentary on supply-chain normalization, customer confidence, and the pace of balance-sheet repair will be critical for investor sentiment.

Boeing Company (BA). Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.02 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $22.72 billion.
You can explore the most recent BA investor release here and here.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft (-3.7% YTD) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether AI-driven growth across Azure, Microsoft 365, and enterprise software can continue to offset margin pressure from heavy infrastructure spending.

Last quarter, Microsoft delivered $64.7 billion in revenue (+15% YoY) and $2.95 in EPS (+19% YoY), driven by strong performance in Microsoft Cloud and sustained demand for Copilot products. Azure revenue grew in the low-30% range, though management flagged that AI capacity constraints and elevated capex would continue to weigh on near-term margins.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching Azure growth trends, AI monetization across Office and Dynamics, and signals on capex intensity into 2026. Any update on Copilot adoption, pricing leverage, or AI workloads translating into higher ARPU will be key for the stock’s next move.

Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $3.85 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $80.25 billion.
You can explore the most recent MSFT investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Canada–U.S. trade tensions stay in focus, U.S. takes $1.6B stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR), and Japan markets are on edge as bonds sell off.

Canada-U.S. Trade Tensions Stay in Focus

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated that Ottawa has no plans to pursue a full free-trade agreement with China, pushing back against Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if such a deal were pursued. Carney stressed that his recent engagement with China was limited to specific tariff adjustments, not a comprehensive trade pact, and that Canada is respecting its commitments under the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Under the agreement, Canada will permit up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market each year at a reduced 6.1% tariff, following its October 2024 move — alongside the U.S. — to raise tariffs on those vehicles to 100%.

U.S. Takes $1.6B Stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR)

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Performance, YTD Chart, Seeking Alpha

The USA Rare Earth Inc is back in focus after reports that the Donald Trump administration plans to invest $1.6 billion for a 10% stake in the company, underscoring a renewed push to secure domestic rare-earth supply chains critical to defense, EVs, and AI infrastructure.

Rare earths have long been a geopolitical flashpoint, with China historically dominating global production and processing. Washington’s new investment signals a more assertive industrial strategy to reduce dependence on foreign sources, bolster supply-chain resilience, and support U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. The move also dovetails with broader federal efforts under the CHIPS and Science Act, Inflation Reduction Act, and defense appropriations that prioritize strategic materials and dual-use technologies.

Markets have responded with enthusiasm: the stock climbed ~+9% Friday and ~+46% over the past five trading days as traders priced in the potential for accelerated production, new capital flows, and expanded government offtake agreements.

Japan Markets on Edge as Bonds Sell Off

Japan’s financial markets came under renewed strain after the Bank of Japan warned that government bond yields are rising too fast and signaled it is prepared to step in with bond-buying if conditions turn disorderly. The comment followed a sharp selloff in long-dated JGBs that pushed yields to record highs, even as the BoJ held its policy rate steady near 0.75% and reiterated that further hikes are likely in 2026.

The warning triggered violent currency moves, the yen briefly fell before snapping higher within minutes. Traders pointed to speculation around official “rate checks” and the growing risk of direct intervention. Despite the rebound, the currency remains near multi-decade lows against major peers.

Political uncertainty is adding fuel to the fire. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament and called a snap election, while floating fiscal proposals that could materially widen deficits, intensifying pressure on long-term bonds. At the same time, the BoJ raised its underlying inflation outlook, reinforcing expectations that policy normalization is coming.

Major Economic Events:

Consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and the Fed’s interest rate decision are in focus.

Monday (1/26): Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Transportation)

Tuesday (1/27): Consumer Confidence

Wednesday (1/28): FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Press Conference

Thursday (1/29): Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Productivity, U.S. Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories

Friday (1/30): Chicago Business Barometer (PMI), Core PPI, Core PPI (YoY), Producer Price Index (PPI), PPI (YoY)

What We’re Watching:

Durable Goods Orders

New orders for U.S.-manufactured durable goods fell 2.2% MoM in October, sharply reversing September’s upwardly revised +0.7% gain and missing expectations for a -1.5% decline. The pullback was driven primarily by a steep drop in transportation equipment (-6.5%), with both nondefense (-20.1%) and defense aircraft orders (-32.4%) plunging.

Outside of aircraft, the picture was more mixed. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft –a key proxy for business investment – rose 0.5%, suggesting underlying corporate spending plans remain intact despite macro uncertainty. Machinery (+0.8%) and fabricated metals (+0.5%) also posted gains, partially offsetting weakness in capital goods and primary metals.

Economists expect the following this week:

Durable Goods Orders (MoM): -2.2% vs. +0.7% prior
Core Capex Orders (ex-aircraft): +0.5% vs. flat prior

Fed Interest Rate Decision

Source: FedWatch CME Group

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed broad agreement that rate cuts are likely in 2026 if inflation continues to ease, though policymakers remain split on the balance of risks. Some officials warned that sticky inflation could still require restrictive policy, while others argued for deeper cuts to counter signs of labor-market softening.

The Fed cut rates by 25bps to a 3.5%–3.75% range, marking its third cut of the year and matching market expectations. The decision was not unanimous: two members dissented in favor of holding steady, while newly appointed Governor Miran pushed for a larger 50bps cut.

The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed greater optimism around 2026 growth, with policymakers citing a smaller-than-feared drag from tariffs and more confidence in a gradual inflation cooldown.

Economists expect the following this week:

Fed Funds Rate (Current): 3.5%–3.75%
2026 Rate Cuts Priced In: ~2–3 cuts
Inflation Risk vs. Labor Risk: Evenly balanced

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Quantify Funds Disclosures: The Funds do not invest directly in Bitcoin or Gold bullion. ISSB & ISBG use leverage to “stack” the total return of holdings in the Fund’s Bitcoin strategy, Gold strategy & US Equity strategy. There is no guarantee the Quantify Funds ETFs will make weekly distributions and the amounts may fluctuate from week to week. Distributions may be comprised of option premiums, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. To view both current and historical monthly estimates of ETF distribution composition, investors may view the 19a-1 notices available on each corresponding Fund's webpage. Distributions classified as return of capital will reduce an investor’s cost basis in Fund shares owned, which may result in higher taxes paid in the future when the Fund shares are sold, even if the shares are sold at a loss compared to the original investment. Investing involves risk. Principle loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services LLC.

Disclosure: The author of this post has an existing business relationship with NEOS Investment Management, LLC, and is also a holder of numerous NEOS ETFs. The thoughts and opinions in this written piece are solely those of the author.

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👉 Trump Headlines Dominated the Week

Austin Hankwitz — Sun, 25 Jan 2026 18:41:30 +0000

Together with Quantify Funds

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Netflix guided to a record $50B in revenue for 2026.
Intel reported a -$450M loss due to heavy manufacturing investments.
United Airlines reported record revenue due to their premium cabin segmentation.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Takeaways from Trump at the World Economic Forum.
Another government shutdown appears to be likely.
Amazon expanded further into healthcare AI.

Economic Updates:

Core PCE held steady.
GDP growth continued to accelerate.
Pending home sales plummeted.

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👉 Portfolio Updates

The portfolio continues to trend in the right direction year-to-date, up around $5K in market gains (+2.4%). This strength is being led by the “Dividend Growth Stocks” subsection, up +3.6%. There’s about a half dozen names in this subsection up double digit percentage points — with the largest gainer up around +20% YTD.

In the “Long Risky” subsection we’re seeing plenty of double digit gainers, with Bloom Energy up +41% YTD.

The “Monthly Income” subsection is doing exactly what it’s supposed to be doing — generating tax-efficient monthly income. Very happy with this!

Finally, the crypto portfolio is relatively flat YTD. I still firmly believe we’ll experience one more push to the upside in Bitcoin before a “Crypto Winter” ensues.

I plan to continue to deploy around $10K / month of capital toward this portfolio as a whole in 2026. I also plan to exit my Berkshire Hathaway position and instead park it 50/50 in IWM and RSP — as I believe small caps and “equal-weight” S&P 500 will experience strength in 2026. Stay tuned!

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Netflix guided to a record $50B in revenue for 2026, Intel reported a -$450M loss due to heavy manufacturing investments, and United Airlines reported record revenue due to their premium cabin segmentation.

Netflix (NFLX)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $12.1 billion, an increase of +18% YoY

Operating Income: $3.0 billion, an increase of +30% YoY

Profits: $2.4 billion, an increase of +29% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“In 2025, we met or exceeded all of our financial objectives... growing ad sales by 2.5x and delivering record member engagement. As we look to 2026, we are focused on closing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Studios and HBO, which we see as a strategic accelerant to our library and production capabilities. We are still under 10% of TV time in all major markets, so the opportunity ahead remains massive.”

My Takeaway

Intel (INTC)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $14.9 billion, an increase of +4% YoY

Operating Loss: -$450.0 million, compared to $2.6 billion last year

Net Loss: -$210.0 million, compared to $2.7 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“This quarter marks the culmination of our relentless pursuit to regain process leadership. We have successfully taped out Panther Lake on Intel 18A, and the node is now manufacturing-ready with defect densities within our target range. While the financial transformation is ongoing, the technical turnaround is complete. We are now entering the execution phase of IDM 2.0.”

My Takeaway

United Airlines (UAL)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $14.4 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $1.1 billion, compared to $1.4 billion last year

Profits: $850.0 million, compared to $1.0 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Our 'United Next' strategy is working. The industry has structurally changed, and we are on the winning side of that change. Customers are voting with their wallets for a premium experience and a global network that can take them anywhere. While we navigate supply chain constraints, our operational reliability and product segmentation are delivering record revenue and solidifying our position as the flag carrier of the U.S."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Takeaways from Trump at the World Economic Forum, Another government shutdown appears to be likely, and Amazon expanded further into healthcare AI.

Takeaways from Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos

Source: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Donald Trump said he has reached a long-term “framework” deal on Greenland focused on Arctic security and mineral rights, while backing off threatened tariffs on Europe. He also hinted that he has effectively chosen the next chair of the Federal Reserve, narrowing the field to one finalist but declining to name them ahead of Jerome Powell’s term ending in May.

Trump strongly defended his proposal for a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, framing it as a necessary affordability measure despite warnings from major banks. On Iran, he said he hopes further US military action won’t be needed, while reiterating that Iran must halt its nuclear ambitions and leaving force on the table.

He also emphasized housing affordability, arguing that large institutional investors buying single-family homes have crowded out individual buyers. Overall, the interview underscored Trump’s blend of aggressive deal-making abroad and populist economic policies at home centered on costs, credit, and housing.

Another Government Shutdown Seems Likely

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👉 Global Affairs Are in Full Focus

Austin Hankwitz — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 14:35:37 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

Earnings are back in full force, the World Economic Forum is underway, Trump is willing to place new tariffs in order to get Greenland, and so much more…

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Key Earnings Announcements:

Capital One, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, and United Airlines highlight this week.

Monday (1/19): Markets Closed (MLK Day)

Tuesday (1/20): 3M, Netflix, United Airlines, DR Horton, Interactive Brokers, U.S. Bancorp, Fifth Third Bank, Fastenal, KeyBank

Wednesday (1/21): Johnson & Johnson, Halliburton, Ally Financial, Kinder Morgan, Charles Schwab, CACI, Pinnacle Financial, Travelers, RLI Corp, Teledyne Technologies

Thursday (1/22): Procter & Gamble, Intel, GE Aerospace, Capital One, Abbott Laboratories, CSX, McCormick, Huntington Bancshares, Associated Bank, Texas Capital Bank

Friday (1/23): SLB (Schlumberger), Ericsson, Webster Financial, First Citizens BancShares, Comerica

What We’re Watching:

Intel (INTC)

Intel (+27% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the company’s multi-year turnaround strategy is beginning to show tangible progress amid intense competition in AI chips, data centers, and foundry services.

Last quarter, Intel posted $13.6 billion in revenue (-2% YoY) and $0.41 in adjusted EPS, modestly ahead of expectations as cost controls and improved execution helped stabilize margins. However, data center revenue remained under pressure, and Intel Foundry Services continued to operate at a loss as the company ramps capacity and pursues external customers.

For Q4, I’ll be watching updates on foundry customer traction, capital spending discipline, and progress on next-gen process nodes (Intel 18A). Commentary around AI accelerators, Gaudi adoption, and how Intel plans to compete with Nvidia and AMD — while balancing cash flow and government-backed investment — will be critical for sentiment.

Intel Corp. (INTC) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect -$0.09 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $13.38 billion.
You can explore the most recent INTC investor release here and here.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix (-6% YTD) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, with investors focused on whether the streaming giant can sustain subscriber growth, expand margins, and deepen monetization as competition intensifies and strategic ambitions widen.

Last quarter, Netflix delivered $11.1 billion in revenue (+16% YoY) and $7.20 in EPS, beating expectations as paid sharing, pricing actions, and advertising momentum drove strong operating leverage. Management also reiterated confidence in full-year margins, citing disciplined content spending and continued growth in the ad-supported tier.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching net subscriber additions, ad-tier engagement and ARPU trends, and guidance for 2026 margin expansion. Investors will also be paying close attention to commentary around Netflix’s $83 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, which could reshape the competitive landscape across streaming, content libraries, and global distribution.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $0.55 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.97 billion.
You can explore the most recent NFLX investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Geopolitics and Greenland in focus while Trump delivers a speech at Davos for the World Economic Forum.

Greenland Remains in Focus

Renewed attention on Greenland has surfaced following revived rhetoric around U.S. strategic interest in the Arctic. In response, Denmark confirmed that a standing 1952 military directive remains in force, requiring Danish forces to immediately engage any unauthorized invading power — without waiting for political approval — across all Danish territory, including Greenland.

While Copenhagen has emphasized it does not expect U.S. military action, the reaffirmation is widely viewed as a signal that sovereignty violations would be treated uniformly, regardless of alliance status. For markets, the episode underscores rising Arctic geopolitical risk, intensifying competition over strategic resources and shipping routes, and the growing overlap between defense policy, energy security, and great-power politics under Donald Trump.

It will be important to watch developments this week, after Trump announced new tariffs starting at 10% — with a proposed increase to 25% in June — on eight European nations, including Denmark, following their plans to conduct NATO military exercises in Greenland in response to U.S. pressure.

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos kicks off this week, bringing together global political and business leaders to discuss AI deployment, economic growth, and geopolitical stability. Davos often serves as an early-year barometer for policy direction, corporate sentiment, and cross-border coordination.

Notable executives scheduled to appear include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. Political leaders expected include President Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Investors will be watching for signals on AI regulation, global growth priorities, and geopolitical risk, particularly as markets assess the policy backdrop for 2026.

Major Economic Events:

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and a quarterly GDP revision are in focus this week.

Monday (1/19): Markets Closed (MLK Jr. Day)

Tuesday (1/20): None Scheduled

Wednesday (1/21): Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales

Thursday (1/22): GDP (Revision), Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, Core PCE

Friday (1/23): Consumer Sentiment, S&P Flash Manufacturing PMI, S&P Flash Services PMI

What We’re Watching:

Core PCE Index

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 0.2% MoM in September, matching the pace seen in August and July and landing in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE eased to 2.8%, continuing its slow but consistent move toward the Fed’s 2% target.

The steady monthly readings suggest underlying inflation pressures – particularly in services – are cooling gradually rather than reaccelerating. With headline inflation already moderating and labor-market data showing signs of balance, the report supports the Fed’s patient, data-dependent approach to policy easing.

Economists expect the following this week:
• Core PCE (MoM): +0.2% vs. +0.2% prior
• Core PCE (YoY): ~2.7%–2.8%

GDP (First Revision)

U.S. GDP expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest growth in two years and well above expectations for 3.3%. The upside surprise was driven primarily by resilient consumer spending, a rebound in exports, and renewed government outlays.

Consumer spending rose 3.5%, its fastest pace this year, with strength across both goods (+3.1%) and services (+3.7%), led by health care, travel, and prescription drugs. Business investment continued to grow, though at a slower rate, as gains in equipment and intellectual property were offset by ongoing weakness in structures and residential investment. Exports surged 8.8%, while imports declined further, providing a meaningful boost to net trade. Inventory drag eased significantly compared to Q2.

Economists expect the following next quarter:
• Q4 GDP Growth: ~2.0%–2.5%
• Consumer Spending: Moderating but positive
• Residential Investment: Continued contraction

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👉 Tariff Drama Remains in 2026

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 19 Jan 2026 23:03:25 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

BlackRock added $698 billion in new assets under management during 2025.
Taiwan Semiconductor plans to ramp up their 2-nanometer chips in 2026.
Delta Air Lines’ partnership with American Express generated $8.2 billion in remuneration for the year.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Trump shook the markets over the holiday weekend with the threatening of new tariffs.
Crypto companies took a hit after pushing back against the CLARITY Act.
Netflix secured a $7B deal with Sony.

Economic Updates:

Inflation for consumers came in cooler than expected
Inflation for producers was hotter than expected.

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👉 Portfolio Updates

No major updates to the portfolio. Simply dollar cost averaging into the above-shown subsections. I’m thinking about making a weighting switch between “Long Risky” and “Long Technology,” but I haven’t yet made up my mind.

Regardless, interesting to see “Dividend Growth Stocks” outperforming the “Long Technology” subsection year-to-date — seems like this outperformance is driven by Novo Nordisk, Lowe’s, and Analog Devices.

Remain excited about the monthly income and crypto subsections of the portfolio as well. Seeing Bitcoin put in these higher lows sure is nice — I remain optimistic we’ll see a crossing of $100K sooner than later.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

BlackRock added $698 billion in new assets under management in 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor plans to ramp up their 2-nanometer chips in 2026, and Delta Air Lines’ partnership with American Express generated $8.2 billion in remuneration for the year.

BlackRock (BLK)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $7.0 billion, an increase of +23% YoY

Operating Income: $1.7 billion, compared to $2.1 billion last year

Profits: $1.1 billion, compared to $1.7 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“BlackRock enters 2026 with accelerating momentum across our entire platform, coming off the strongest year and quarter of net inflows in our history. Clients entrusted us with $698 billion of new assets in 2025, powering 9% organic base fee growth. And we ended the year with back-to-back quarters of double-digit organic base fee growth, including 12% in the fourth quarter.”

My Takeaway

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $31.5 billion, an increase of +39% YoY

Operating Income: $15.4 billion, an increase of +44% YoY

Profits: $12.9 billion, an increase of +47% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Our fourth quarter business was supported by the continued strong ramp of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology. We are observing that the demand for AI-related computing power is not just 'real'—it is structural and insatiable. We expect 2026 to be another healthy growth year for TSMC as we ramp N2 (2-nanometer) and continue to expand our advanced packaging capacity to meet customer needs."

My Takeaway

Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $16.0 billion, an increase of +3% YoY

Operating Income: $1.5 billion, compared to $1.7 billion last year

Profits: $1.2 billion, compared to $1.5 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

"The Delta team delivered a strong close to our Centennial year, demonstrating the differentiation and durability we've built. The strength in the consumer sector is at the higher end of the curve... the lower-end consumer is struggling. We fortunately do not live there. Our industry-leading performance delivered for our customers and employees, creating value for our owners consistent with our long-term framework."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Trump shook the markets over the holiday weekend with the threatening of new tariffs, crypto companies took a hit after pushing back against the CLARITY Act, and Netflix secured a $7B deal with Sony.

Trump Threatened Tariffs on Countries That Oppose Greenland Deal

Source: AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka

President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on imports from several European countries starting Feb. 1, with the stated aim of pressuring Denmark to negotiate the sale of Greenland to the United States. The tariffs would apply to goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, and would rise to 25% on June 1 unless an agreement is reached. The move threatens to disrupt a major U.S.–EU trade deal finalized last year, prompting leaders in the European Parliament and senior officials from the European Union to signal that implementation of the agreement may be paused. Trump framed the tariffs as a national security measure, arguing that U.S. control of Greenland is necessary to counter China and Russia, while stating that the U.S. remains open to negotiations.

Danish and Greenlandic officials have reiterated that Greenland is not for sale, with Greenland’s government opposing U.S. ownership and Denmark characterizing its increased military presence in the Arctic as defensive. European leaders and some U.S. lawmakers warned that the tariff threat could strain transatlantic relations, and legal uncertainty remains over the authority Trump would use to impose the measures, which is currently under review by the Supreme Court.

Crypto Companies Push Back on CLARITY Act

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👉 Breaking Down ASML Holding ($ASML)

GRIT — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 17:00:56 +0000

Happy Friday.

We’re thrilled to share a comprehensive breakdown of a stock that’s quietly up +76% over the past year.

As a reminder, this specific deep-dive is written by the GRIT team and is not the exclusive work of Head Analyst Austin Hankwitz.

Stock Deep Dive: ASML Holding NV (ASML-US, $394B MCAP)

Everyone is arguing about the AI chip winners.

Nvidia’s ecosystem. AMD’s catch-up. Broadcom’s custom silicon flywheel. Hyperscalers rolling their own accelerators.

But there’s a quieter truth underneath all of it.

No matter who wins the benchmark wars, the chips still have to get manufactured, and at the cutting edge there is one gatekeeper: ASML.

This is the company that sells the lithography systems that “print” the most advanced transistors on earth. These machines are so complex they are effectively industrial miracles, so scarce they dictate fab buildout timelines, and so essential that governments treat them like strategic assets. Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) is the entry ticket to 3 nm and 2 nm, and ASML controls the supply.

So while headlines bounce between GPU launches and custom silicon roadmaps, ASML keeps collecting a toll on progress.

If you want exposure to AI’s hardware arms race without having to pick the chip designer that wins, this is the rare picks-and-shovels story that still matters.

Why now? 👉 Integrating with AI Interfaces
Overview 👉 What Does ASML Do?
Role in Ecosystem 👉 ASML and the Semiconductor Arms Race
How Do They Win? 👉 Unrivaled Value in Lithography
Bonus 👉 High-NA EUV, The Next Frontier
Business Units 👉 Segment Breakdown
By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics
Competition and Outlook 👉 Strategic Positioning in a Shifting Landscape
Risks 👉 Potential Pitfalls

Why now? 👉 Integrating with AI Interfaces

AI is pushing the semiconductor industry into a new capex cycle, and ASML sits at the choke point. It does not design GPUs or custom accelerators. It sells the lithography systems that every leading-edge foundry needs to manufacture them. As Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and hyperscaler custom silicon teams fight for performance, they all converge on the same bottleneck: advanced process nodes require EUV, and ASML is the only scaled EUV supplier. That makes ASML a picks-and-shovels way to play AI compute demand without betting on which chip architect wins the next benchmark.

The timing also matters. Foundry roadmaps are moving from 3 nm toward 2 nm, and the next wave of tool intensity is ramping as High-NA EUV transitions from prototype to early production. Add in the reshuffling of supply chains away from single-region risk, and you have a setup where ASML’s backlog visibility, pricing power, and service annuity can compound through the cycle.

Overview 👉 What Does ASML Do?

ASML is the world’s most important photolithography company. Lithography is the step that “prints” microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, setting the ceiling on transistor density, power efficiency, and ultimately chip performance. ASML’s flagship tools are EUV scanners that use 13.5 nm light to pattern the smallest features used in advanced logic and increasingly in memory. These machines are factory-scale systems, often weighing over 180 tons, assembled from hundreds of thousands of parts, and sold at prices that can reach roughly $320M for top-end EUV.

An ASML High-NA extreme ultraviolet system Source: ASML

ASML also sells DUV lithography tools, which remain essential for many layers even in leading-edge fabs and dominate mature-node manufacturing. The key point is simple: if you want to make cutting-edge chips at scale, you need ASML in your fab. That dependence is why ASML is both a commercial powerhouse and a strategic asset in global tech policy.

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Role in Ecosystem 👉 ASML and the Semiconductor Arms Race

ASML sits at the center of the semiconductor arms race because lithography is the gate that determines who can manufacture at the frontier. That is why export controls matter. Since 2019, ASML has been blocked from shipping EUV systems to China, and more recent rules tightened access to certain advanced DUV tools. Governments see these machines as strategically decisive because they enable the production of leading-edge logic chips.

China’s role is both opportunity and risk. In 2024, Chinese fabs pulled forward purchases, pushing China to about 36% of ASML sales. With tighter controls, ASML expects China’s revenue share to fall toward about 20% in 2025. That is a revenue headwind, but it is also proof of how irreplaceable ASML tools are.

Across the rest of the ecosystem, the dependency is universal. When TSMC, Intel, or Samsung plans 3 nm or 2 nm capacity, EUV allocation is a first-order constraint. Chip designers can shift architectures, but they cannot route around lithography.

How Do They Win? 👉 Unrivaled Value in Lithography

ASML wins because it owns the hardest bottleneck in semiconductors and has spent decades widening that lead. First, technology. EUV took decades of development and roughly $6B of R&D investment to industrialize, and ASML is still reinvesting about $6B per year to extend performance and yield. Second, barriers. EUV depends on a specialized supply chain, including ultra-precision optics that require capabilities built alongside partners like Zeiss. The result is an engineering stack that is extremely difficult to replicate, even with state-backed funding.

Third, customer lock-in. ASML tools are not “install and forget.” They require continuous calibration, upgrades, and service, and fabs optimize entire process flows around these scanners. Fourth, value creation. A single EUV tool can unlock billions of dollars of high-end chip output, so customers focus on throughput, uptime, and roadmap alignment more than sticker price.

In a market where chip designers compete fiercely, ASML’s advantage is that it sells the enabling infrastructure to all of them, and it moves the goalposts with each generation.

Bonus 👉 High-NA EUV, The Next Frontier

High-NA EUV is ASML’s next leap and the clearest reason its moat can deepen from here. “NA” refers to numerical aperture, essentially the optical capability that improves resolution. High-NA EUV is designed to pattern smaller features more efficiently, supporting 2 nm and beyond while reducing the need for some costly multi-patterning. ASML has already shipped early High-NA modules to customers, with Intel positioned as a key early adopter, and broader deployment expected as the decade progresses.

The economics matter. High-NA tools are expected to be even more expensive than current EUV, with pricing discussed around $400M per system for leading models. That higher ASP raises ASML’s revenue potential per fab buildout. The strategic impact is just as important. High-NA reinforces that the frontier keeps advancing, and ASML remains the sole practical supplier of that advancement.

There are execution risks, including early-cycle margin pressure and integration complexity, but the long-term setup is compelling. If High-NA becomes the late-decade workhorse, ASML’s pricing power and service annuity expand with it.

Business Units 👉 Segment Breakdown

ASML’s business splits cleanly into two engines: new system sales and the installed-base annuity.

Lithography system sales. This includes EUV for leading-edge logic and growing memory adoption, plus DUV tools that remain essential across both advanced and mature nodes. EUV units are fewer, but ASPs are far higher, so EUV increasingly drives revenue and sentiment. DUV remains structurally important because even the most advanced chips still use DUV for multiple layers, and mature-node demand is persistent across automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics.
Installed Base Management. After a tool is shipped, ASML earns high-margin revenue from service contracts, spare parts, productivity upgrades, and refurbishments over a machine life that can span 20 to 30 years. This is the stabilizer in the model. In the first 9 months of 2025, services were about $6.4B, up 39% YoY, roughly 26% of sales.

Net, system sales deliver upside torque in upcycles, and services provide resilience and compounding through the full cycle.

Source: Company Filings

By The Numbers 👉 Key Metrics

Source: Bloomberg

Q3 2025 performance (reported October 15, 2025):

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👉 The First Big Earnings Reports of 2026

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 13:40:17 +0000

Welcome to your new week.

And just like that… we’re back in the thick of it. Earnings reports are picking back up, Trump news is constant, major conferences are dominating headlines, and everyone awaits the next moves by the Fed.

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Key Earnings Announcements:

As usual — big banks kick off the next set of earnings reports. Here we go!

Monday (1/12): N/A

Tuesday (1/13): Bank of New York Melon, Delta, JPMorgan Chase

Wednesday (1/14): Bank of America, Citi Bank, Wells Fargo

Thursday (1/15): BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semi

Friday (1/16): PNC, Regions, State Street

What We’re Watching:

Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Delta Air Lines (+8% 1-Year) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Thursday before the open, with investors focused on whether strong travel demand and premium cabin growth can continue to offset rising costs and a more price-sensitive consumer. Delta remains the highest-margin major U.S. carrier, but fuel prices, labor costs, and corporate travel trends are key variables heading into 2026.

Last quarter, Delta delivered $15.5 billion in revenue (+6% YoY) and $2.04 in adjusted EPS, beating expectations as international travel, premium seating, and loyalty revenue remained strong. Operating margin held above 13%, supported by pricing power in premium cabins and continued strength in credit-card and loyalty partnerships.

For this quarter, I’ll be focused on whether yield strength is holding across premium and international routes, how fuel and labor costs are tracking, and whether management adjusts capacity or margin guidance for 2026. Updates on loyalty revenue and corporate-travel trends will also be key drivers for sentiment.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $1.52 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $15.69 billion.
You can explore the most recent DAL investor release here and here.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

JPMorgan Chase (+37.2% 1-Year) reports Q4 FY2025 earnings Friday before the open, with investors focused on whether the largest U.S. bank can sustain profit growth as net interest income peaks and consumer credit conditions begin to soften. JPM remains the bellwether for U.S. financials, but rising delinquencies, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting rate expectations are becoming more important swing factors for 2026.

Last quarter, JPM posted $42.3 billion in revenue (+8% YoY) and $4.33 in adjusted EPS (+18% YoY), beating expectations as investment banking rebounded and trading activity picked up. Net interest income remained strong, though management flagged that deposit betas are rising and loan growth is slowing, particularly in commercial real estate and credit cards.

Heading into this print, I’ll be watching trends in net interest income, credit-card charge-offs, and commercial loan growth, as well as updates on capital returns and regulatory capital requirements. Commentary on consumer health, deposit competition, and how the bank is positioning for a lower-rate environment will be key for the stock.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $4.95 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $46.25 billion.
You can explore the most recent JPM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The largest consumer conference returns to the spotlight in Orlando, markets react to Trump’s call for a 10% credit card rate cap, and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference kicks off in San Francisco.

ICR Conference

Source: icrconference.com

ICR Conference — one of the most important events on the retail calendar — kicks off this week in Orlando, Florida. Major companies are expected to provide holiday sales updates, margin commentary, and fresh full-year guidance. The conference often drives post-holiday revisions to earnings forecasts and sets the tone for how Wall Street views consumer demand heading into the new year.

Notable participants include Walmart (WMT), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Shake Shack (SHAK), Movado (MOV), Yeti (YETI), and more.

JPMorgan Healthcare Conference Kicks Off in San Francisco

The four-day JPMorgan Healthcare Conference begins this week, bringing together the world’s largest pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical-device companies with institutional investors. Heavyweights including Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Kodiak Sciences will present on pipelines, clinical data, M&A priorities, and 2026 growth outlooks.

This year’s event carries added weight after a volatile year for biotech and a surge in dealmaking expectations, with investors watching closely for signals on drug pricing, capital allocation, and late-stage trial readouts.

A key moment will be the keynote from FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, who is expected to outline the agency’s priorities around accelerated approvals, AI-driven drug development, and safety and efficacy standards – guidance that could shape regulatory risk and valuation across the sector for the year ahead.

Markets React to Trump’s Call for a 10% Credit Card Rate Cap

President Trump’s call for a one-year 10% cap on credit-card interest rates starting Jan. 20, 2026 has injected a new policy variable into consumer finance and bank earnings. While the proposal has no formal regulatory backing yet and would likely require congressional action, expect markets to be weighing the implications for lending profitability, consumer behavior, and credit availability.

On top of that, major U.S. banks will report December credit-card metrics this week, offering a real-time snapshot of how stressed the consumer already is before any policy intervention:

American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup, Capital One, Discover, JPMorgan, and Synchrony will all update investors on net charge-offs and delinquency rates.

These reports will be closely watched as:

Delinquencies are rising across subprime and near-prime borrowers
Revolving balances remain near record highs
Funding costs for banks stay elevated

Major Economic Events:

Fed speak whirlwind, CPI, PPI, and retail sales highlight this week

Monday (1/12): Fed Speakers (Barkin, Bostic, Williams)

Tuesday (1/13): CPI, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI Year-over-Year, NFIB Optimism Index, New Home Sales, U.S. Budget Deficit

Wednesday (1/14): Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex-Autos, PPI, Core PPI, Business Inventories, Existing Home Sales, Fed Beige Book

Thursday (1/15): Initial Jobless Claims, Import Prices, Empire State Manufacturing, Philly Fed Manufacturing

Friday (1/16): Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

What We’re Watching:

Consumer Price Index

U.S. inflation cooled meaningfully in December, with headline CPI falling to 2.7% YoY, the lowest reading since July and well below expectations for 3.1%. While energy prices remained elevated — led by fuel oil and natural gas — price pressures eased across several core categories, including apparel and new vehicles.

More importantly for the Federal Reserve, core inflation declined to 2.6% YoY, its lowest level since March 2021, beating expectations and signaling broad-based disinflation across the economy. Shelter inflation slowed to 3.0%, while medical care, furnishings, and used vehicles showed moderate increases.

Due to the 43-day government shutdown, October CPI was not collected and November monthly data was not released, but the BLS said prices rose just 0.2% over the two-month period from September through November, reinforcing the cooling trend.

Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline CPI (YoY): 2.7% vs. 3.0% prior
• Core CPI (YoY): 2.6% vs. 3.0% prior
• CPI (MoM): ~+0.2%

Producer Price Index

U.S. producer prices rose 0.3% MoM in September, rebounding from August’s unexpected 0.1% decline and landing in line with expectations. The increase was driven almost entirely by higher food and energy costs, with factory-gate food prices jumping 1.1% and energy prices rising 3.5%, led by gains in natural gas liquids and ethanol.

Goods inflation accelerated to 0.9%, its fastest pace in over a year, while services prices remained flat, holding on to the prior month’s decline – a sign that upstream inflation remains concentrated in commodities rather than broad-based pricing power. On an annual basis, PPI held steady at 2.7%, indicating that underlying producer-level inflation has not reaccelerated despite the monthly spike.

The report reinforces the idea that inflation risks are being driven more by volatile energy and food inputs than by demand-driven pricing.

Economists expect the following this week:
• Headline PPI (MoM): +0.3% vs. -0.1% prior
• Headline PPI (YoY): 2.7% vs. 2.7% prior
• Core PPI (MoM): ~0.0%

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👉 Major AI Headlines Kick Off 2026

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 01:01:05 +0000

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

Constellation Brands returned $400M to shareholders this quarter.
Helen of Troy lowered their 2026 guidance to reflect worse-than-expected tariffs charges.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Nvidia once again impressed at CES.
Walmart announced a partnership with Google Gemini.
Novo Nordisk announced a partnership with Amazon Pharmacy.

Economic Updates:

The job market continues to cool.
Inflation expectations are keeping economists guessing.

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👉 Portfolio Updates

We are BACK! Who’s ready for a killer 2026?

For those of you who’ve been following the portfolio closely, you’ve likely already seen this — I rebalanced a ton of positions last week.

And it seems like it’s working! The portfolio, in aggregate, is up +2.7% YTD compared to the Nasdaq-100’s +1.1% and S&P 500’s +1.2%.

A little bit of momentum can go a long way — and we’ll take it!

Some positions in the “Long Risky” subsection of the portfolio are already up double digits — very cool! Massive shoutout to Chris Camillo on the Bloom Energy recommendation.

Highly recommend logging into your GRIT VIP account and taking a look at the updated portfolio — as I’m investing $30K into it during the month of January. Couldn’t be more excited about these names for the coming years!

The monthly income portfolio continues to do exactly that — pay me several hundred each month in tax-efficient income. Couldn’t be happier with its performance, especially as I continue to DCA into BTCI during this bear market.

Looking forward to checking back in with these names after Q4 earnings are released in the coming weeks.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central!

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Constellation Brands returned $400M to shareholders this quarter, and Helen of Troy lowered their 2026 guidance to reflect worse-than-expected tariffs charges.

Constellation Brands (STZ)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $2.2 billion, compared to $2.5 billion last year

Operating Income: $692.0 million, compared to $793.0 million last year

Profits: $522.2 million, compared to $629.1 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Our Beer Business delivered dollar and volume share gains in tracked channels and gained incremental distribution points, while our Wine and Spirit Business continued to outperform the U.S. wine industry. By focusing on factors within our control, we are confident that we are positioning the company for long-term success.”

My Takeaway

Helen of Troy (HELE)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $512.8 million, compared to $530.7 million last year

Operating Loss: -$8.3 million, compared to $75.1 million last year

Net Loss: -$84.0 million, compared to $49.6 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“We delivered third quarter results in line with our outlook and are making progress toward stabilizing the business despite the challenging external environment. We grew revenue in key brands – OXO, Osprey, and Olive & June – expanded Organic DTC sales and generated positive free cash flow despite tariff-related headwinds.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Nvidia once again impressed at CES, Walmart announced a partnership with Google Gemini, and Novo Nordisk announced a partnership with Amazon Pharmacy.

Takeaways from Nvidia at CES

Source: Getty Images / Patrick T. Fallon

At CES 2026, Nvidia made it clear that its ambition now stretches far beyond consumer graphics, positioning itself as the backbone of an AI-powered physical world. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized “physical AI,” systems trained in simulated environments and deployed into real-world machines like robots, factories, and autonomous vehicles.

Nvidia showcased platforms such as Cosmos and Alpamayo to power robotics and self-driving technology, even signaling plans to test a Level 4 robotaxi service as early as 2027. Notably absent were new consumer GPUs, underscoring Nvidia’s strategic shift away from gamers and toward hyperscalers, governments, and industrial-scale AI users.

Instead, the spotlight was on Rubin, Nvidia’s next-generation, full-stack AI platform designed to handle the massive compute, energy, and data demands of modern AI models. Nvidia also doubled down on its version of “open” AI, releasing foundational models across industries while ensuring everything runs on its hardware. Taken together, the keynote felt less like a product launch and more like a declaration that Nvidia intends to sit beneath nearly every AI system shaping the future.

Walmart (WMT) and Google (GOOG) Gemini Partner to Enhance Shopping Experience

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WEEK IN REVIEW: Full access to the internet's best recap of the markets, every single week. This includes comprehensive earnings breakdowns, portfolio updates, and more. This is the perfect compliment to the "Investing Week Ahead" post that you already receive at the beginning of each week.
MONTHLY LIVESTREAMS: Join Austin Hankwitz live every month to dive deep into his portfolio, explore the latest trends, discuss any changes he’s making, and cover market-moving topics.
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MONTHLY STOCK DEEP DIVES – Comprehensive stock analysis on an individual ticker, delivered at the end of each month.
RESOURCES – A wide variety of investment resources for both beginners and advanced investors to accelerate your portfolio.

👉 The First Full Week of 2026 (!)

Austin Hankwitz — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 14:54:36 +0000

Welcome to your new week — and your new year.

We hope each of you enjoyed the holiday break, and are excited for the year ahead of us!

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Key Earnings Announcements:

Easing into the new year with a quiet week of earnings.

Monday (1/5): N/A

Tuesday (1/6): Angiodynamics

Wednesday (1/7): Albertsons Companies, Constellation Brands, Jeffries, MSC Industrial

Thursday (1/8): Commercial Metals, WD-40 Company

Friday (1/9): N/A

What We’re Watching:

Constellation Brands (STZ)

Constellation Brands (-36.5% over the past year) reports Q2 FY2025 earnings Thursday before the open, with investors watching how the premium beverage maker navigates soft consumer demand in beer and spirits while leaning into higher-margin segments like tequila and seltzers. Constellation has faced headwinds from elevated retail inventories and shifting drinking habits, making this quarter’s results a key read on stabilization and pricing power.

Last quarter, Constellation delivered $2.6 billion in revenue (+3% YoY) and $2.79 in adjusted EPS (+7% YoY), with strength in top-tier adult beverage brands partly offsetting weaker volumes in mainstream beer. Gross margins expanded modestly as cost efficiencies and pricing actions helped cushion input cost pressures, though management flagged ongoing inventory destocking at retail and moderation in on-premise activity.

Heading into this release, I’ll be watching volume trends across beer, tequila, and ready-to-drink categories, whether price/mix gains can sustain margin expansion, and any updates to full-year guidance amid macro-linked consumer softness. Commentary on inventory levels at wholesalers and retailers — especially in beer — will also be a key sentiment driver.

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

Analysts expect $2.64 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $2.16 billion.
You can explore the most recent STZ investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

CES Conference in spotlight, Markets eye a fourth year of gains, and Venezuela shock: oil, bonds, and geopolitical risk in focus.

CES Conference

The CES conference kicks off this week in Las Vegas under the theme “Innovators Show Up,” with a heavy focus on AI, robotics, digital health, and mobility. CES has increasingly become a platform for strategy reveals and ecosystem signaling rather than just consumer gadgets, making it a key sentiment driver for tech markets early in the year.

Investors will be watching for AI roadmap updates, edge-AI hardware announcements, and partnerships from companies including Samsung, Intel, Sony, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Meta Platforms, among others.

With AI now spanning devices, autos, and health care, CES will offer an early look at where AI monetization and hardware demand may trend in 2026.

Markets Eye a Fourth Year of Gains

Wall Street is entering 2026 cautiously optimistic that lower interest rates and strong earnings growth can extend the equity rally for another year — even as valuations sit near historical extremes. After three consecutive years of double-digit gains, the S&P 500 is pushing into rare territory, where forward returns have historically become more dependent on earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion.

Strategists broadly expect positive returns, but at a slower pace. Major banks see modest upside driven by resilient economic momentum, easing monetary policy, and continued AI investment. Corporate profits are projected to grow in the mid-teens this year, which could help justify elevated valuations if expectations are met.

Still, risks are building beneath the surface. Mega-cap AI stocks have carried much of the rally, valuations remain stretched, and investor positioning is crowded.

What to watch this week:

Early signals from the December jobs report
Initial earnings commentary from large banks
Whether leadership broadens beyond AI and mega-caps

Venezuela Shock: Oil, Bonds, and Geopolitical Risk in Focus

Markets are digesting a dramatic escalation in Venezuela after the U.S. detained Nicolás Maduro, raising the prospect of a U.S.-managed transition period and a potential reset of the country’s energy and financial system. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, and any shift in control or production outlook could have meaningful implications for global oil markets, EM debt, and geopolitical risk pricing.

Investors are already reacting. Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds have surged, reflecting growing optimism around eventual debt restructuring and reintegration into global capital markets after years in default. Analysts note the rally is less about near-term fundamentals and more about political optionality — the possibility that a U.S.—backed transition unlocks oil output, foreign investment, and creditor negotiations.

What to watch this week:

Oil market reaction
Signals on interim governance and U.S. involvement in oil operations
Communication from Venezuelan officials, particularly Vice President Delcy Rodríguez
Continued repricing in Venezuelan bonds toward potential recovery values (50–60¢ range)
UN Security Council emergency meeting on U.S. operation in Venezuela today at 10AM ET

Major Economic Events:

First full week of 2026 and economic data is fully back on track after last year’s multi month disruption

Monday (1/5): Auto Sales, ISM Manufacturing Index

Tuesday (1/6): S&P Final U.S. Services PMI

Wednesday (1/7): ADP Employment, ISM Services Index, Job Openings (JOLTS)

Thursday (1/8): Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit, U.S. Productivity, U.S. Consumer Credit

Friday (1/9): Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Housing Starts, UMich Consumer Sentiment

What We’re Watching:

Housing Starts

U.S. housing starts fell -8.5% MoM in August to an annualized pace of 1.31 million units, well below expectations of 1.37 million and marking one of the weakest readings since 2020. The decline underscores continued stress in residential construction as elevated inventory levels and a cooling labor market outweighed recent relief from lower mortgage rates.

Single-family starts dropped -7.0% to 890,000, their lowest level in over a year, while multi-family starts fell -11.0% to 403,000. Regionally, activity slumped sharply in the South and Midwest, partially offset by rebounds in the West and Northeast.

With data releases delayed by the government shutdown, this August report remains the latest snapshot of housing activity. September and October housing starts are expected to be released together, offering a clearer read on whether lower rates are beginning to stabilize the sector.

Nonfarm Payrolls

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by +64,000 in November, rebounding from a revised -105,000 decline in October and topping expectations for a +50,000 gain. While the headline marked a return to job growth, underlying trends point to a labor market that remains soft and uneven.

Hiring was concentrated in health care (+46K) and construction (+28K), with social assistance (+18K) continuing its steady upward trend. Offsetting those gains, employment declined in transportation and warehousing (-18K), while the federal government shed another -6,000 jobs, following a sharp -162,000 decline in October tied to deferred buyouts.

Revisions were a net negative, with August payrolls revised down by -22,000 and September cut by -11,000, reinforcing the narrative of gradual labor-market cooling.

Economist expect the following this month:

Nonfarm Payrolls: 57K consensus

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