Hi everyone,

SpaceX has been public for 117 days and the stock has already done a full lap. It priced at $135, ripped above $225 shortly after listing, fell as low as $104.83 after its first earnings report, and has since rallied all the way back to around $172 — nearly 30% above its IPO price. Along the way, Starship completed its first successful orbital flight, and SpaceX is now reportedly looking to raise another $40 billion to fund its growing AI ambitions. It’s a great time to take a real look under the hood.

As a reminder, this specific deep-dive is written by the GRIT team and is not the exclusive work of Head Analyst Austin Hankwitz.

Everyone buying SpaceX thinks they are buying a rocket company. Open the Q2 segment table and the rockets lose money. The Space segment posted a $542M operating loss on $962M of revenue. The profit engine is Starlink, and the fastest-growing profit line in the entire company is renting Nvidia GPUs to Anthropic.

That last part is the story retail is not pricing. The AI segment swung from -$276M to +$1.15B of adjusted EBITDA in twelve months. The swing came from leasing Colossus 1 to Anthropic at $1.25B per month. Starting in October, Google pays another $920M per month. Annualized, those two contracts are worth $26B, which is more than SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue. Both can be cancelled on 90 days' notice.

So the $2T question splits in two. Near term, SpaceX is a Starlink annuity bolted to the most expensive neocloud on the planet. Long term, it is a wager that Starship collapses the cost of mass to orbit and turns low Earth orbit into the next data center. The first half is easier to underwrite than the bears admit. The second half starts getting tested this week.

• Why Now👉an orbital attempt, a new tenant and a share unlock

• The Overview👉one balance sheet, three businesses

• How Do They Win👉owning the cost of mass to orbit

• Business Units👉space, connectivity and AI

• How Do They Make Money👉starlink pays, compute rents, rockets burn

• By The Numbers👉the first half in one table

• Bonus Deep Dive👉the landlord trade inside spacexai

• Risks👉what breaks the story

• Wrapping Up👉a $2T option on starship

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Why Now👉an orbital attempt, a new tenant and a share unlock

Starship Flight 14, September 28. This is the first orbital flight after 13 suborbital tests. The plan calls for about six orbits at roughly 171 miles, 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed, and a Pacific splashdown about ten hours after liftoff. There is no chopstick catch of either stage this time. Flight 13 in July deployed 20 production V3 satellites, but on a suborbital trajectory. Flight 14 is the first time V3 hardware is meant to stay up and carry traffic. SpaceX slipped the date six days without explanation.

Google goes to full rate, October. Google's lease steps up to $920M per month for about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs after a discounted ramp through September. The contract has teeth: if SpaceX misses committed GPU access by September 30, Google can terminate after a one-month grace period or take reduced capacity at reduced fees. Delivery is a live test this week.

The unlock calendar. More than 700M shares (5.3% of the count) unlocked in September and another ~650M (4.9%) unlock in October. With an IPO float of only about 5%, the September tranche alone roughly doubled tradable supply. The 180-day lock-up for other pre-IPO holders lands around December 9, and Musk plus insiders are locked for 366 days, into June 2027. The stock absorbed September and still ran from $141.50 on August 28 to $152.71 on September 18. The market is choosing to lean into the catalysts.

The Q3 print. This is the first full quarter of Anthropic at full contract rate. The AI line should jump again, and the capex number will again decide the reaction.

Source: StockAnalysis price data; Space.com (Flight 14); TechCrunch (Google contract terms); Motley Fool (unlock sizes). Path connects reported price points and is approximate between them; 180-day expiry date estimated.

The Overview👉one balance sheet, three businesses

SpaceX was founded by Elon Musk in 2002, is headquartered at Starbase, Texas, and employs about 22,000 people. The listed entity is a very different animal from the rocket company most investors grew up with. On February 2, 2026, SpaceX absorbed xAI in a deal that valued SpaceX at $1T and xAI at $250B. xAI, which already owned X, was rebranded SpaceXAI in July. On June 12 the combined company listed on Nasdaq at $135 per share, raising about $86B including the overallotment, with only about 5% of shares floated.

Welcome to your new week.

Delta and PepsiCo test how much consumers will pay, Microsoft makes its next AI-PC pitch, and a sharp slowdown in hiring puts the services economy under the microscope.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A slow earnings calendar puts consumer spending in focus.

Monday (10/5): No major U.S. reports scheduled.

Tuesday (10/6): Apogee Enterprises, Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston, Neogen, Penguin Solutions, RPM International, Worthington Steel.

Wednesday (10/7): Applied Digital, Levi Strauss, Resources Connection.

Thursday (10/8): AngioDynamics, Byrna Technologies, Helen of Troy, PepsiCo, Tilray Brands.

Friday (10/9): Delta Air Lines.

How Jennifer Aniston’s LolaVie brand grew sales 40% with CTV ads

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Learn more.

What We’re Watching:

1. Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Delta Air Lines (+21.2% YTD) reports Friday before the open, with shares closing last week at $84.09. Wall Street is looking for $1.88 in adjusted earnings per share on $17.62 billion of adjusted revenue. The stock has already had a strong year, so the bar is higher than simply showing that people are still traveling. Delta needs to prove that strong bookings can translate into stronger profits despite a much more expensive fuel environment.

Last quarter, adjusted revenue rose 13.9% to $17.67 billion on roughly 1% capacity growth, while premium revenue increased 17% and loyalty-related revenue grew 19%. American Express remuneration reached $2.4 billion, up 16%. But fuel expense hit $4.4 billion, nearly $2 billion above the year-earlier level, holding adjusted operating margin to 8.8%. Demand has held up; the bigger question is how much of that strength Delta can actually keep at the bottom line.

The question Friday is how much of that higher fuel bill Delta can recover through fares without sacrificing demand. Watch main-cabin unit revenue alongside premium growth, then the December-quarter booking outlook and whether management keeps its full-year earnings outlook intact. Premium and loyalty have remained major strengths, but this quarter should show whether pricing power is strong enough to offset higher costs without slowing the customer.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $1.94 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $18.83 billion.

• You can explore the most recent DAL investor release here and here.

2. PepsiCo (PEP)

PepsiCo (-12.3% YTD) reports Thursday before the open, with shares closing Friday at $125.89. Wall Street is looking for $2.28 in GAAP earnings per share on $25.00 billion of revenue. The setup is more complicated than a typical staples report: after cutting prices on key snacks earlier this year to support demand, PepsiCo has now confirmed plans to raise some chip prices again as costs climb.

Second-quarter revenue increased 6.4% to $24.18 billion, but organic growth was a more modest 2.4%. International organic revenue grew 7%, while North American foods revenue fell 2% and North American beverage volume declined 4%. GAAP diluted EPS came in at $2.18. Currency and acquisitions helped the headline sales result, but the domestic business still needs to prove that lower prices can bring consumers back without sacrificing too much profitability.

The planned price increases are not expected until late 2026 or early 2027, so they will not explain results for the quarter that ended September 5. Watch U.S. volumes, how much of the earlier discounting remains in the business and whether management keeps its full-year growth outlook intact. The question Thursday is whether better affordability is finally translating into stronger demand before PepsiCo asks consumers to absorb higher prices again.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $2.28 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $24.97 billion.

• You can explore the most recent PEP investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Microsoft's local-AI pitch, Paramount prepares for Warner Bros integration, and the Texas Stock Exchange's first corporate listings.

• Microsoft Local AI Pitch

Source: Microsoft, via Windows Latest

Microsoft hosts its Windows and Surface event Wednesday in San Francisco, with Satya Nadella, Windows chief Pavan Davuluri, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang expected to appear. The focus is local AI: running more work directly on a PC rather than sending every task to the cloud.

Microsoft has already previewed its Surface Laptop Ultra with Nvidia's RTX Spark platform, but pricing and availability remain outstanding. The commercial question is whether local models and agents give developers and creators a reason to replace their machines.

Watch for firm shipping dates, developer tools, and demonstrations of how Windows manages agent permissions and computing resources. Local execution could reduce latency and keep more data on the device, but those benefits still need to justify the hardware cost. Pricing and availability will matter more than another performance demo.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Stock Performance, 1-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Paramount Prepares for Warner Bros Integration

Source: Variety

Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery expect their merger to close Tuesday, October 6, subject to customary closing conditions. That is the catalyst, not a completed deal. For investors, the debate is about to shift from whether the transaction can get over the finish line to how the combined company will actually operate.

The first personnel move arrives Monday, when former Mattel chief Ynon Kreiz starts at Paramount. Upon closing, he is set to become co-CEO and join the board, overseeing day-to-day management and integration. David Ellison would remain chairman and CEO, focused on strategy, creative direction, technology, partnerships, and capital allocation. The businesses will report jointly to both executives, making the division of responsibilities an early execution test.

Watch the closing announcement for a clear integration timetable and the first concrete decisions on overlapping businesses, streaming distribution, and spending. Combining major entertainment franchises creates options, but a larger content library is not the same as better returns. The useful milestones will be decisions that simplify operations without weakening the programming and talent relationships the company is buying.

• Texas Stock Exchange's First Corporate Listings

Source: Texas Stock Exchange; celebration of its earlier trading launch

The Texas Stock Exchange begins primary corporate listings Monday, October 5, moving beyond the exchange-traded products it began listing in September. Energy Transfer and Sunoco are among the operating companies scheduled to make the move from the New York Stock Exchange. These are listing transfers, not new stock offerings, and their ET and SUN tickers stay the same.

The distinction matters because an exchange can trade securities without winning the company's primary listing. Monday gives the Dallas-based challenger an opportunity to prove it can handle the opening and closing auctions, corporate actions, and issuer services that come with that role. TXSE has specifically asked member firms to test auction orders, execution processing, and the corporate-actions feed ahead of launch.

For investors in the transferring companies, the immediate question is a smooth transition, not a change in the underlying business. For the exchange industry, watch whether unrelated issuers follow and whether trading quality supports the sales pitch. Winning a group of related energy companies is a start; building a durable alternative to NYSE and Nasdaq requires a broader pipeline of listings.

Major Economic Events:

Services activity and consumer sentiment test whether weak hiring is becoming a broader slowdown.

Monday (10/5): Final S&P Global services and composite PMIs; September ISM services PMI; September Employment Trends Index.

Tuesday (10/6): ADP weekly employment update; August U.S. trade balance; Redbook retail sales; October RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index; September Logistics Managers' Index; Global Supply Chain Pressure Index.

Wednesday (10/7): MBA mortgage applications; September used-car prices; New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations; August consumer credit; September FOMC meeting minutes.

Thursday (10/8): Initial and continuing jobless claims; August wholesale inventories; weekly mortgage rates; Fed balance sheet.

Friday (10/9): Preliminary October University of Michigan consumer sentiment, current conditions, consumer expectations, and inflation expectations.

What We’re Watching:

1. October Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan releases preliminary October consumer sentiment Friday, following a September reading of 48.1, down from 51.7 in August. Coming after a weak September payroll report, a flat reading would leave households heading into the holiday shopping season with little confidence in the outlook.

September's damage was concentrated in expectations. That index fell to 46.3 from 51.5, while the current-conditions index slipped to 50.9 from 51.9. Inflation expectations also moved the wrong way: the one-year measure jumped to 4.6% from 4.0%, and the longer-run measure rose to 3.4% from 3.3%. Consumers were becoming more worried about future prices even as their views of personal finances weakened.

The cleanest result for markets would be stronger sentiment alongside cooling inflation expectations. A small headline rebound accompanied by another increase in expected inflation would be less reassuring, because it would leave the Fed with the same tension between household stress and price pressure. Watch the expectations component and the inflation readings together; this is a survey of attitudes, not proof that spending has already fallen.

Economists expect the following:

• Consumer sentiment: 48.1 vs. 48.1 prior

2. September ISM Services

Monday's ISM services report tests whether the economy's largest sector can keep growing while hiring slows. The September forecast cited by CMC Markets is 55.7, up from 55.4 in August and comfortably above the 50-point expansion threshold. After Friday's weak payroll number, the employment component may matter as much as the headline.

August showed a business sector that was busy but reluctant to hire. Business activity rose to 61.7 and new orders reached 60.9, while the employment index stayed in contraction at 47.8. The prices index climbed to 72.6 from 70.3, matching its highest level since August 2022. Firms were handling stronger demand while facing elevated input costs, and that combination had not yet translated into stronger staffing.

A solid headline with firmer employment and lower prices would be the most encouraging mix. A headline beat driven by orders alone, with hiring still below 50 and prices above 70, would leave the growth-and-inflation tension unresolved. The September Fed minutes arrive Wednesday, but Monday's survey will provide newer evidence on whether service businesses are absorbing higher costs or preparing to pass them on.

Economists expect the following:

• ISM services PMI: 55.7 vs. 55.4 prior

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Accenture’s revenue grew 6% to $18.7 billion.

• Micron’s revenue jumped to $54.2 billion from $11.3 billion.

• Nike’s revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $518 billion in spending plans.

• Nvidia added a record $150 billion to its buyback.

• The U.S. sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

Economic Updates:

• Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September.

• Core PCE inflation cooled to 3.0%.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Accenture’s revenue grew 6% to $18.7 billion, Micron’s revenue jumped to $54.2 billion from $11.3 billion, and Nike’s revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion.

• Accenture (ACN)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $18.7 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $2.9 billion, an increase of +40% YoY

Profits: $2.0 billion, an increase of +40% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We exceeded our fourth-quarter revenue guidance range and capped off another year of broad-based growth across our business, grew adjusted EPS 8%, returned a record $11.5 billion to shareholders and reached a new high of 141 quarterly client bookings of $100 million or more. These results reflect the continued trust our clients place in us to help them reinvent and create value, the high level of innovation we bring every day and the extraordinary commitment of our Reinventors to our clients’ success.”

My Takeaway

Blu Dot surpasses 2,000% ROAS with self-serve CTV ads

Home furniture brand Blu Dot blew up on CTV with help from Roku Ads Manager. Here’s how:

After a test campaign reached 211,000 households and achieved 1,010% ROAS, the brand went all in to promote its annual sales event. It removed age and income constraints to expand reach and shifted budget to custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.

The results speak for themselves. As Blu Dot increased their investment by 10x, ROAS jumped to 2,308% and more page-view conversions surpassed 50,000.

“For CTV campaigns, Roku has been a top performer,” said Claire Folkestad, Paid Media Strategist, Blu Dot. “Comping to our other platforms, we have seen really strong ROAS… and highly efficient CPMs, lower than any other CTV partner we've worked with.”

Using Roku Ads Manager, the campaign moved from a pilot to a permanent performance engine for the brand.

Learn More

• Micron (MU)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $54.23 billion, an increase of +379% YoY

Operating Income: $43.75 billion, an increase of +1,097% YoY

Profits: $37.70 billion, an increase of +1,078% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Micron delivered record fiscal 2026 results, and we expect an even stronger fiscal 2027. AI is becoming Super Intelligence (SI), and memory enhances this intelligence and the competitiveness of our customers’ platforms. We are increasing our investments in technology, products and manufacturing to help drive SI forward with our customers, and our Strategic Customer Agreements provide added confidence in the durability of Micron’s financial performance.”

My Takeaway

• Nike (NKE)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $11.2 billion, compared to $11.7 billion last year

Operating Income: $907 million, compared to $904 million last year

Profits: $712 million, compared to $727 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“The Sport Offense is driving measurable progress across our performance business, and we introduced Pace to help us accelerate and scale that momentum across NIKE. We have more work to do in NIKE Sportswear, Jordan Brand and Greater China, and we’re taking deliberate actions to strengthen those businesses the right way for the long-term.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Anthropic’s IPO filing showed $518 billion in spending plans, Nvidia added a record $150 billion to its buyback, the U.S. sent a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

• Anthropic’s IPO Filing Showed $518 Billion in Spending Plans

Dario Amodei, co-founder and chief executive officer of Anthropic, during an interview at Anthropic’s headquarters in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, April 30, 2026. Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, seen by Reuters, shows how fast the company is growing and what it costs. Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion, but Anthropic lost more than $8 billion on an operating basis and reported a $42 billion net loss, which includes a roughly $34 billion accounting charge tied to financing that could turn into shares. It plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in the coming years, and the offering could value it above $2 trillion, more than double its estimated $965 billion valuation in May.

The filing also shows how concentrated the AI buildout has become. Nearly a quarter of revenue came from two customers. Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion, convertible into shares, to help fund a $125.2 billion five-year lease of TPU computing capacity, and Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom’s largest compute customer in 2027. About 80 of the 261 pages cover risks, including a warning that AI could pose “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.” Reuters reported the debut is likely to come after the November midterms.

• Nvidia Added a Record $150 Billion to Its Buyback

  

  NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang speaks during the G20 Innovation Ministerial on September 2, 2026 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Sean Rayford | Getty Images

Welcome to your new week.

Micron tests the AI spending boom, Nike looks for evidence its turnaround is working, and inflation + jobs data put the Fed's next move back in focus.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A light earnings calendar puts Micron and Nike at the center of the week.

Monday (9/28): Jefferies, Vail Resorts

Tuesday (9/29): AAR, CarMax, Carnival, Concentrix, Uranium Energy

Wednesday (9/30): Conagra Brands, FactSet, Jabil, Micron, Progress Software

Thursday (10/1): Accenture, Acuity, McCormick, Nike

Friday (10/2): No major U.S. reports scheduled

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What We’re Watching:

1. Micron (MU)

Micron (+279.2% YTD) reports fiscal fourth-quarter results Wednesday after the close, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. Shares finished Friday at $1,082.28, and Wall Street is looking for $31.58 in GAAP earnings per share on $51.24 billion of revenue. That puts the sales forecast above management's $50 billion guidance midpoint. After a stock rally this large, simply delivering the quarter Micron promised may not be enough.

Last quarter showed why expectations keep moving higher. Revenue rose 345.7% to $41.46 billion from $9.30 billion a year earlier, GAAP earnings reached $24.67 per share, and gross margin climbed to 84.6%. Data-center revenue reached $25 billion, including $5 billion from enterprise solid-state drives. The growth is broader than high-bandwidth memory alone: AI infrastructure is also driving demand for the storage products that sit alongside it.

The constraint is supply. Management says customers want substantially more memory than Micron can ship, and it raised fiscal 2026 capital-spending plans to about $27 billion, with another substantial increase expected in fiscal 2027. Watch HBM4 shipments, the next-quarter outlook and the multiyear customer agreements intended to make demand more predictable. The question is whether new capacity can lift shipments without giving back the pricing power behind those margins.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $31.58 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $51.24 billion.

• You can explore the most recent MU investor release here and here.

2. Nike (NKE)

Nike (-43.9% YTD) reports fiscal first-quarter results Thursday after the close. Consensus calls for $0.44 in GAAP earnings per share on $11.34 billion of revenue, a 3.2% sales decline from a year earlier. Shares closed Friday at $35.75, and the disconnect is the story: Nike's sales declines are modest compared with the damage to the stock. Investors need a reason to believe Elliott Hill's reset is getting closer to growth.

Last quarter's profit improvement needed an asterisk. Revenue fell 1% to $10.97 billion, while GAAP earnings of $0.72 per share included a $0.52 benefit from an expected tariff recovery. Gross margin reached 49.2%, but would have been 40.2% without that benefit. Wholesale sales rose 4% on a reported basis while Nike Direct fell 7%, showing that the retail-partner recovery has not yet carried over to Nike's own channels.

Greater China remains the soft spot. Sales there fell 17% on a currency-neutral basis last quarter, and management expects near-term trends to remain similar. For the first quarter overall, Nike guided to a low-to-mid-single-digit revenue decline but a slight year-over-year gross-margin improvement as it tightens inventory buys and reduces planned shipments to retailers. Watch China, direct-to-consumer sales and gross margin excluding one-time items. Better inventory discipline helps, but the turnaround still needs customers to buy more product at full price.

Nike, Inc. (NIKE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $0.44 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.34 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NKE investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Iran diplomacy, OpenAI's developer showcase and Tesla's delivery update give investors three very different tests.

• Iran Talks Face Another Test

Source: Majid Saeedi / Bloomberg via Transport Topics. Ships near Larak Island in May 2026.

The week begins with another possible diplomatic opening, but not an agreed negotiating schedule. President Trump has said he expects further talks after rejecting Iran's latest proposal; Iranian officials say they are still waiting for an official response through mediators.

The proposal reportedly linked reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting nuclear talks to relief from the U.S. naval blockade and oil sanctions, alongside a regional ceasefire. That is a much bigger negotiation than simply getting the two sides into the same process. Reports of possible Monday contact should not be confused with a confirmed meeting.

For investors, the test is whether diplomacy changes the movement of actual cargoes. Watch for verifiable shipping access, insurer participation and a clear sequence for sanctions relief, rather than treating an upbeat negotiating headline as the end of the disruption. Energy costs are the connection to the rest of this week's inflation story.

• OpenAI Makes Its Developer Pitch

Source: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images via TechCrunch. Sam Altman at an earlier DevDay.

OpenAI holds DevDay Tuesday at Fort Mason in San Francisco, with Sam Altman's keynote streaming at 1 p.m. ET. The investor question is not just which model looks smartest on stage. It is whether developers get a cheaper, more reliable way to turn that intelligence into useful work.

Pre-event reporting points to a managed-agent service that could let developers run agents on OpenAI's infrastructure, though the company has not confirmed the launch lineup. If that arrives, the implications extend beyond model competition. OpenAI would be competing for more of the software stack, including the infrastructure and workflow layer that application companies currently build themselves.

Watch pricing, availability and evidence that agents can finish real tasks with predictable costs. Enterprise controls and the ability to monitor failures matter more to adoption than a polished demo. A useful launch should give developers a reason to ship products now, not just a reason to wait for the next model.

• Tesla Faces the Delivery Test

Source: Wikimedia Commons. Archival Tesla factory image, 2011.

Tesla's third-quarter production and delivery update is expected Friday, although the company has not announced a release time. This is an operating update, not earnings. It gives investors a check on the car business while the broader stock story remains tied to autonomy.

Visible Alpha's delivery consensus stood at 454,000 in the September 24 preview, below the 480,126 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter. Watch the gap between production and deliveries, not just whether the headline clears expectations. A rising gap would raise different questions from a quarter in which Tesla draws down inventory.

Energy storage deserves its own look after Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh last quarter. The combination of vehicle deliveries, production and storage deployments should show where operating momentum is building. It will not yet tell investors what incentives, financing offers or product mix did to margins; that requires the later earnings report.

Major Economic Events:

Wednesday's inflation report and Friday's jobs data could reshape the argument for the Fed's next move.

Monday (9/28): Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.

Tuesday (9/29): Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices; JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence.

Wednesday (9/30): ADP employment; August PCE, personal income and spending, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP; Chicago PMI.

Thursday (10/1): Initial jobless claims; final S&P Global manufacturing PMI; ISM manufacturing and construction spending.

Friday (10/2): September employment report; factory orders.

What We’re Watching:

1. PCE

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases August’s personal consumption expenditures price index Wednesday, and economists expect headline inflation to hold at 3.7% YoY, with core inflation unchanged at 3.3%. That would leave both measures stuck at July’s levels rather than delivering another step lower. With the Fed already back to raising rates, investors need evidence that inflation is cooling, not simply reassurance that it has stopped getting worse.

The spending side of the report could complicate that picture. Personal spending is expected to rise 0.8% MoM, up from 0.2% in July, while personal income is forecast to increase 0.5% against 0.4% previously. Those spending figures are not adjusted for inflation, so the distinction matters: consumers paying more is not the same as consumers buying more. The inflation-adjusted spending number will show how much actual demand sits behind the larger dollar total.

Look past the annual inflation headline to the monthly core reading and the revisions. Wednesday’s release includes the BEA’s annual update, which can change the historical comparisons investors have been using to judge progress. Cooler monthly core inflation alongside continued real spending growth would support the case that demand can hold up without another inflation acceleration. Sticky core prices and stronger real spending would leave the argument for further tightening intact.

Economists expect the following:

• Headline PCE inflation: 3.7% YoY expected vs. 3.7% prior

• Core PCE inflation: 3.3% YoY expected vs. 3.3% prior

• Personal spending: +0.8% MoM expected vs. +0.2% prior

• Personal income: +0.5% MoM expected vs. +0.4% prior

2. Nonfarm Payrolls

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s employment report Friday, and consensus calls for 100,000 additional jobs against August’s 162,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. That would represent slower hiring without an outright deterioration in the labor market. For stocks, the distinction is important: a strong report supports consumer spending, but an unexpectedly hot one could also strengthen the case for another rate increase.

August’s rebound came after gains of just 21,000 in July and 31,000 in June, so the improvement is still resting heavily on one month. Friday’s revisions will help determine whether that rebound was the beginning of a stronger trend or an isolated jump. A September gain near expectations would look more convincing if August holds up than if the previous month’s strength gets revised away.

The market has a fairly narrow target. Hiring near consensus, moderating wage growth and stable labor-force participation would support the case that the economy can keep expanding without putting fresh pressure on inflation. Stronger hiring accompanied by faster wages would make the Fed’s job harder, particularly if Wednesday’s PCE report also runs hot. A weak payroll number paired with downward revisions would create a different problem: less inflation pressure, but a less reliable consumer heading into the fourth quarter.

Economists expect the following:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +100,000 expected vs. +162,000 prior

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected vs. 4.1% prior

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Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

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THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.

The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

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Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Costco’s total revenue grew 11% to $95.7 billion.

• General Mills is targeting $750 million of savings this year.

• Darden sees weekday lunch as a meaningful opportunity and plans to increase marketing around Olive Garden's unlimited soup, salad and breadsticks.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Mortgage rates just jumped to 7.45%.

• Meta’s Muse AI agent topped 2.5 million downloads.

• The U.S. and China agreed to a $30 billion tariff cut.

Economic Updates:

• The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.

• Retail sales rose 1.2% in a single month.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Costco’s total revenue grew 11% to $95.7 billion, General Mills is targeting $750 million of savings this year, and Darden sees weekday lunch as a meaningful opportunity and plans to increase marketing around Olive Garden's unlimited soup, salad and breadsticks.

• Costco (COST)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $95.7 billion, an increase of +11% YoY

Operating Income: $3.8 billion, an increase of +14% YoY

Profits: $3.0 billion, an increase of +15% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We delivered top-line sales growth of over 10% and expanded our market share by deepening member loyalty and capturing a larger share of wallet. This success was anchored by our agile item-driven model. Our buyers stayed ahead of member trends, quickly adjusting our assortment to offer high-quality, relevant products at the lowest prices.”

My Takeaway

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• General Mills (GIS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $4.4 billion, compared to $4.5 billion last year

Operating Income: $634 million, compared to $1.7 billion last year

Net Loss: $397 million, compared to $1.2 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“We are off to an encouraging start in fiscal 2027, driving improved topline performance with stronger product innovation and renovation focused on the benefits consumers are looking for today. We are also executing with discipline in a volatile environment, including delivering industry-leading cost savings through our Holistic Margin Management program and our global Transformation initiative. Based on our progress and the actions underway, we remain confident in our ability to deliver our fiscal 2027 guidance.”

My Takeaway

• Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $3.2 billion, an increase of +5% YoY

Operating Income: $319.3 million, compared to $339.2 million last year

Profits: $233.4 million, compared to $257.8 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“The first quarter was a solid start to our fiscal year with each of our segments delivering positive same-restaurant sales. The performance across our portfolio reinforces the importance of having distinctive brands, each with a clear strategy, supported by Darden’s scale and other competitive advantages. Looking ahead, our focus remains the same: operate our restaurants at a high level, strengthen guest loyalty, invest in our people and brands, and deploy capital in ways that support long-term shareholder value.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Mortgage rates just jumped to 7.45%, Meta’s Muse AI agent topped 2.5 million downloads, the U.S. and China agreed to a $30 billion tariff cut.

• Mortgage Rates Just Jumped to 7.45%

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 7.45% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily, up 19 basis points in a single day. It sat as low as 5.99% at the end of February, before the war with Iran began. The bond market is the driver. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 13 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest one-day move since April 2025, after hot business surveys, hawkish Fed commentary and a weak five-year note auction that cleared at 5.033%. By Thursday the 10-year hit its highest level since June 2007, and the 30-year reached levels not seen since 2004.

Borrowers are already reacting. The Mortgage Bankers Association said refinance applications fell to their lowest level since February 2025 and sit 62% below a year ago, while purchase applications are down 11% year over year. The share of borrowers choosing adjustable-rate loans rose to 9.8% from 8.4% a week earlier, with 5/1 ARMs running more than a full point below fixed rates. New home sales did beat in August, rising 6.4% to a 684,000 annual pace, but the median new home price fell 5.8% from a year ago to $393,700.

• Meta’s Muse AI Agent Topped 2.5 Million Downloads

  

Together with Waldo

Welcome to your new week.

The Federal Reserve raised rates last Wednesday for the first time since 2023, the ten-year Treasury yield pushed above 5%, and the Bank of Japan followed two days later. This week delivers the first evidence of what that costs: the 30-year mortgage has already jumped to 6.95%, new home sales land Thursday, Costco and AutoZone report on the consumer, McDonald's tries to reset in Chicago, and Xi Jinping arrives at the White House.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Another quiet week — headlined by Autozone, Costco, Darden Restaurants, and General Mills.

Monday (9/21): Abivax

Tuesday (9/22): AutoZone, Aytu BioScience, KB Home, MillerKnoll, Thor Industries, Worthington Enterprises

Wednesday (9/23): Cintas, Cracker Barrel, General Mills, H.B. Fuller, NeoVolta, Paychex, Stitch Fix

Thursday (9/24): BlackBerry, Costco Wholesale, Darden Restaurants, Legacy Education, Scholastic, TD Synnex

Friday (9/25): No major US reports scheduled

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What We’re Watching:

1. AutoZone (AZO)

AutoZone (-15.8% YTD) reports fiscal Q4 earnings Tuesday before the open, closing out the year with a 16-week quarter. Shares finished Friday at $2,855.31, even as the underlying business has been accelerating. Wall Street is looking for roughly $55 in EPS on $6.7 billion of revenue, or about 13% earnings growth on 7% sales growth. The question is whether improving demand can finally outrun the margin and execution concerns weighing on the stock.

Last quarter was AutoZone’s strongest sales quarter in three years. Revenue rose 8.4% to $4.84 billion, domestic same-store sales increased 4.1%, and commercial sales jumped 10.4%. EPS reached $38.07 versus $35.36 a year ago. Gross margin slipped 57 basis points to 52.2%, largely because of a LIFO charge, while AutoZone opened another 82 stores and finished the quarter with 7,856 locations.

This quarter, watch domestic commercial growth, gross margin, and whether AutoZone can finish its aggressive expansion plan without sacrificing returns. International remains the weak spot: reported comps rose 16.6% last quarter, but just 1.6% in constant currency. Management still expects 355 to 365 new stores for the year after opening only 199 through the first three quarters, leaving a heavy Q4 buildout. If domestic momentum holds and margins stabilize while that expansion lands on schedule, the selloff becomes harder to explain. If comps soften while costs rise, investors have a clearer reason to stay cautious.

AutoZone Inc. (AZO) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $53.89 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $6.71 billion.

• You can explore the most recent AZO investor release here and here.

2. Costco (COST)

Costco (+2.7% YTD) reports fiscal Q4 earnings Thursday after the close, wrapping up a 16-week quarter. Shares finished Friday at $895.31, and despite another year of double-digit sales growth, the stock has barely moved. That is the tension heading into Thursday: Costco’s operating performance remains remarkably consistent, but at a premium valuation, consistency alone may no longer be enough.

Last quarter, total revenue rose 11.6% to $70.53 billion and EPS climbed 15% to $4.93. Comparable sales increased 9.8%, or 6.6% excluding gas and currency, while digitally enabled sales jumped 21.5%. Membership fee income grew 10.7% to $1.37 billion, paid memberships reached 82.9 million, and U.S. and Canada renewal rates improved to 92.2%.

We already know demand stayed strong into quarter-end. August sales rose 9.9%, while full-quarter net sales increased 11.3% to $93.9 billion and adjusted comparable sales grew 6.7%. That shifts Thursday’s focus away from the headline sales number and toward membership economics and margin. Watch whether renewal rates keep moving higher and whether gross margin rebounds from 11.04% last quarter. If both improve while comps stay near current levels, Costco gives investors another reason to pay up for reliability. If margins remain pressured, strong sales alone may not be enough to move the stock.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $6.53 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $94.85 billion.

• You can explore the most recent COST investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

McDonald's Investor Day, Zuckerberg takes the Connect stage in Menlo Park, and Xi Jinping arrives at the White House.

• McDonald’s Investor Day

McDonald's flagship restaurant in Chicago, the company's home city and the site of Wednesday's Investor Day

McDonald's hosts an Investor Day in Chicago on Wednesday at 9:30 a.m., where management has promised details on what it calls the next phase of growth. The timing is uncomfortable and that is exactly why it matters. Shares are down more than 16% this year and touched a second consecutive 52-week low at $248.48 on the very day the company raised its dividend for the 50th straight year, joining the Dividend Kings.

The problem is the United States. Second-quarter revenue rose 4% to $7.10 billion and missed, and while global comparable sales grew 1.3%, US comparable sales rose only 0.8% as domestic traffic fell 4.5%. BTIG notes the Under $3 Value Menu did not resonate, and that roughly 90% of consumers who cut their visit frequency had already bought a BOGO or used a digital offer. Jefferies has since cut its price target to $325 from $350.

Analysts want three things Wednesday: medium-term financial targets, clarity on the development pipeline, and a capital allocation framework for what Seaport describes as a next-generation remodel cycle that could lift capital spending from 2028. BTIG's Peter Saleh expects McDonald's to moderate the pace of limited-time offers and gradually shift focus toward higher-income consumers, closer to Walmart's playbook.

• Zuckerberg takes the Connect stage in Menlo Park

Mark Zuckerberg wearing Meta's AI glasses on stage at a previous Connect keynote

Meta Connect runs Wednesday and Thursday at Meta's Menlo Park campus and streams publicly. Mark Zuckerberg's keynote is Wednesday at 4 p.m. PT, with the Developer State of the Union Thursday at 10 a.m. PT. The agenda is AI, AI glasses, and virtual reality, in roughly that order of investor relevance.

The financial context has changed sharply since last year's event. Second-quarter revenue grew 28% to $60.80 billion, but net income fell 14% to $15.85 billion and operating margin dropped to 31% from 43%, because Meta is spending AI money at a scale nobody else is matching. Full-year capital expenditure guidance was narrowed to $130 billion to $145 billion. Reality Labs, the division that builds the hardware on stage this week, generated $431 million of revenue against a $4.62 billion operating loss in a single quarter.

That gap is the reason to watch. Glasses are the first Meta hardware category with genuine consumer traction, and a credible path from demos to unit economics would reframe Reality Labs from a subsidy into a business. Watch for pricing, availability dates, and any developer revenue mechanics, since those are the details that turn a keynote into a forecast.

• Xi Jinping to Visit White House

President Trump and President Xi during their May 2026 meeting at Zhongnanhai in Beijing

Xi Jinping is scheduled to land at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday, where President Trump is preparing to greet him personally, the first time he has met a foreign leader at the airport this term. The summit itself is Thursday at the White House, followed by a state dinner that Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang is expected to attend. It is Xi's first visit to Washington since 2015 and the leaders' third meeting in under a year.

The deliverable everyone is watching is the trade truce struck in Busan last October, which expires in November. Extending it for another year would keep China's rare-earth export controls suspended and the tariff-escalation pause intact, leaving Beijing's aggregate US tariff burden near 20%. Negotiators are also discussing tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion of goods on each side, including China's duty on American liquefied natural gas.

Everything else is harder. The agenda includes Nvidia H200 licensing and the 25% revenue-sharing arrangement, semiconductor export controls, fentanyl precursors, agricultural and Boeing purchases, and Taiwan, where a pending $14 billion US arms package has drawn Chinese warnings. Washington has confirmed the meeting; Beijing has not formally done so. Treat this as a management summit rather than a breakthrough.

Major Economic Events:

Flash PMIs Wednesday and new home sales Thursday are the first real data since the Fed hiked, and eight Fed speakers fill in the gaps.

Monday (9/21): Chicago Fed national activity index at 8:30 a.m. ET, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks in London at 6:30 a.m. ET, Treasury bill auctions, China loan prime rate decision, Japanese markets closed

Tuesday (9/22): Richmond Fed manufacturing and services surveys at 10:00 a.m. ET, New York Fed President John Williams at 10:05 a.m. ET, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 10:20 a.m. ET, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 1:00 p.m. ET, 2-year note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET

Wednesday (9/23): MBA mortgage applications at 7:00 a.m. ET, S&P Global flash PMIs at 9:45 a.m. ET, Governor Michael Barr on housing at 10:05 a.m. ET, EIA petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET, 5-year note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET

Thursday (9/24): initial jobless claims, second-quarter current account and final building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET, August new home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey at 11:00 a.m. ET, 7-year note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET

Friday (9/25): August durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. ET, final September University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET, New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 5:15 a.m. ET

What We’re Watching:

1. New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reports August new single-family home sales Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and consensus sits at 610,000 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate against 607,000 in July. July was ugly: sales fell 10.5% month over month to the lowest level since January. This is the first housing demand print since the Fed raised rates, and the mortgage market has already reacted, with the 30-year average jumping to 6.95% for the week ending September 17 from 6.76%.

The rest of the housing picture is no better. The July median new home price fell 2.7% from a year earlier to $393,800, existing home sales slid 2.0% in August to a 3.98 million annual rate, and the National Association of Home Builders says single-family construction is heading for a second consecutive annual decline in 2026.

Look past the headline to the mix. In July, 53% of new homes sold for less than $400,000, up from 50% a year earlier, as builders leaned on rate buydowns, price cuts and smaller floor plans to move inventory. If that share keeps climbing while the median keeps falling, builders are buying volume with margin, and a modest August rebound would say very little about underlying demand.

Economists expect the following:

• New home sales: 610,000 annual rate expected vs. 607,000 prior

• July month-over-month change: -10.5%, the lowest level since January

2.  Flash PMIs

S&P Global publishes its flash September purchasing managers' indexes Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the bar is high. August's composite output index hit 56.0, the strongest reading since April 2022, led by services at 56.5 while manufacturing eased to 53.9. Consensus looks for a modest cooling to 55.2 on the composite, 56.0 in services and 53.6 in manufacturing.

August's internals explained why the survey drew so much attention. Services hiring was the best in 19 months, while goods production was the weakest in 13. Input cost growth stayed elevated but eased, and selling-price pressures faded, which is the combination policymakers want to see: strong activity without a fresh inflation impulse.

That is what makes Wednesday the most important half-hour of the week. The Fed hiked last week on a unanimous 12-0 vote and its projections point to one more increase this year, so the question is no longer whether policy tightens but how much the economy can absorb. A composite holding above 55 with cooling prices paid supports the soft-landing-with-tighter-money case. A hot prices-paid reading, or a services number that rolls over hard, hands each side of the further-tightening debate exactly the evidence it wants. Flash PMIs for the euro area, Germany, France and the UK land the same morning.

Economists expect the following:

• Composite output: 55.2 expected vs. 56.0 prior

• Services: 56.0 expected vs. 56.5 prior

• Manufacturing: 53.6 expected vs. 53.9 prior

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Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

Cover Image Source: Bloomberg | Getty Images

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.

The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Lennar’s new orders fell 9% as mortgage rates crossed 7%.

• Dave & Buster’s swung to a $12.5 million loss.

• Vera Bradley’s comparable sales grew 9.2%.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Diesel just hit an all-time high of $6.31 a gallon.

• The SEC cleared the way for tokenized stocks.

• The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high.

Economic Updates:

• The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023.

• Retail sales rose 1.2% in a single month.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Lennar’s new orders fell 9% as mortgage rates crossed 7%, Dave & Buster’s swung to a $12.5 million loss, and Vera Bradley’s comparable sales grew 9.2%.

• Lennar (LEN)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $8.0 billion, compared to $8.8 billion last year

Operating Income: $387.1 million, compared to $790.7 million last year

Profits: $283.9 million, compared to $591.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Our third quarter 2026 results reflect consistent focus on our operating strategy of maintaining volume and production while navigating a challenging economic environment. While our earnings of $1.19 per share were below expectations, they reflect the nature of the environment in which we are operating, which has deteriorated since our last earnings call. Against that backdrop, our team adhered to our strategy of leveraging consistent volume in order to drive costs lower. We delivered 20,840 homes, within our guidance of 20,500 to 21,500, generated 20,879 new orders and produced total revenues of $8.0 billion.”

My Takeaway

• Dave & Busters (PLAY)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $544.1 million, compared to $557.4 million last year

Operating Income: $19.4 million, compared to $53.0 million last year

Net Loss: $12.5 million, compared to net income of $11.4 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“We are energized by the obvious, actionable, and enormous opportunities ahead for Dave & Buster’s and Main Event. Our Back-to-Basics strategy is gaining momentum with enhanced executional urgency. We are experiencing ongoing growth in food and beverage sales as well as in Special Events sales. The same store sales of our remodels continue to outperform the system. Further, we improved overall same store sales in July, and saw continued improvement in overall same store sales during the third quarter to date.”

My Takeaway

• Vera Bradley (VRA)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $71.6 million, an increase of +1% YoY

Operating Income: $4.2 million, compared to an operating loss of $4.6 million last year

Profits: $4.5 million, compared to a net loss of $4.7 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“I’m pleased to report that our second quarter results reflect continued momentum in our transformation. This marked our second consecutive quarter of overall revenue growth, with total revenue up 1.1% versus the prior year. The underlying health of our business continued to strengthen across our direct channels, margin structure, and balance sheet. Our direct segment delivered revenue growth of 8%, our fifth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement, with comparable sales up 9.2% for the quarter, our second consecutive quarter of positive comparable results.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Diesel just hit an all-time high, the SEC cleared the way for tokenized stocks, the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high.

• Diesel Just Hit an All-Time High

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after Iran-backed drone attacks launched from Iraq, and WTI settled at $105.83 on Monday, up 4.4% and its highest close since May 19. Diesel followed. AAA put the national average at an all-time high of roughly $6.31 a gallon on Wednesday, more than 70% above a year ago, while gasoline passed $4.32, up 6% in a month and 36% in a year. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC the outage would be measured in days; Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said the photographs suggest months.

Freight absorbed the hit first. J.B. Hunt fell more than 13% on Wednesday, one of its worst sessions since the company went public in 1983, after its finance chief said fuel costs would cut third-quarter earnings 5% to 10% from the second, and the Dow Transports dropped 3%. Norfolk Southern’s commercial chief said he was seeing $8 diesel in California. Transportation moves the groceries, so this is a consumer price story on a delay.

• The SEC Cleared the Way for Tokenized Stocks

  

  Eduardo Munoz | Reuters

Together with Alumni Ventures

Welcome to your new week.

Everything this week bends around Wednesday at 2 p.m., when the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. Retail sales land five and a half hours before the statement, Lennar reports that night, and by Friday the Bank of Japan will have announced its rate decision as well.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A thin calendar with Dave & Busters, Lennar, and Trip.com reporting

Monday (9/14): Children's Place, Coda Octopus, CoinShares, Dave & Buster's, Hain Celestial, High Tide, Kestra Medical, Radiant Logistics, RF Industries

Tuesday (9/15): Bioceres Crop Solutions, Evolution Petroleum, Forgent Power Solutions, Trip.com Group, Vera Bradley

Wednesday (9/16): Ispire Technology, Lennar, LuxExperience

Thursday (9/17): Innate Pharma

Friday (9/18): N/A

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What We’re Watching:

1. Lennar (LEN)

Lennar (-22.6% YTD) reports fiscal Q3 earnings Wednesday after the close, just hours after the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision. Shares closed Friday at $79.60, roughly 43% below their 52-week high and less than $3 above the low set earlier this month. With the 30-year mortgage rate back at 6.76%, this print is one of the cleanest reads this week on whether higher rates are finally breaking the housing consumer.

Last quarter, revenue fell 5.2% to $7.94 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at $1.31. Deliveries rose 2% to 20,519 homes, but new orders fell 4%, average selling prices dropped 5% to $371,000, and gross margin compressed to 15.6% from 17.8% a year earlier. The bright spot was incentives, which fell to 12.9% of selling prices from 14.1% the prior quarter — the first meaningful decline after three years of moving higher.

This quarter, management has guided to 20,500 to 21,500 deliveries and gross margin near 16%. The incentive line matters most. If Lennar can keep incentives falling without sacrificing orders, it would be the clearest sign yet that housing margins are finding a floor. If incentives move back higher as mortgage rates approach 7%, affordability is still winning. The September NAHB builder sentiment index also lands Wednesday morning, giving investors another read on housing just hours before Lennar reports.

Lennar Corp. (LEN) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $1.29 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $8.37 billion.

• You can explore the most recent LEN investor release here and here.

2. Trip.com (TCOM)

Trip.com Group (-45.7% YTD) reports second-quarter results Tuesday after the close, with shares sitting at $39.02 — less than $1 above their 52-week low. The stock has been cut nearly in half even as revenue grew 17% last quarter, because management has warned that growth could slow to just 3% to 8% this quarter. Now there is a second question hanging over the stock: what does Trip.com’s earnings power look like after China forced changes to the way it does business?

Last quarter, revenue rose 17% to RMB 16.2 billion, with accommodation up 17%, transportation up 12%, and packaged tours up 19%. International remains the bright spot: gross bookings on Trip.com’s international platform grew roughly 65%, while inbound travel bookings into China jumped about 90%. The balance sheet also remains substantial, with RMB 104 billion, or roughly $15.1 billion, in cash and investments.

This quarter, the focus will be on revenue against that 3% to 8% growth guide and, more importantly, the outlook after July’s roughly $770 million antitrust penalty. Trip.com is ending certain exclusive distribution and pricing practices, and management has already warned that the transition could create fluctuations in financial performance. If international growth stays strong and management can show that margins stabilize as those changes take effect, the valuation starts to look difficult to ignore. If the second-half outlook stays vague and profitability resets lower, the discount has a reason to remain.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect -$0.20 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $2.32 billion.

• You can explore the most recent TCOM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The Bank of Japan reaches for a 31-year high, $6 trillion of options expire on Friday, and Salesforce brings a financial framework to Dreamforce

• The Bank of Japan reaches for a 31-year high

The Bank of Japan's headquarters in the Nihonbashi district of Tokyo

The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting ends Friday in Tokyo, and markets have nearly fully priced a quarter-point increase that would take the policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. This would not be a surprise decision so much as a scheduled one. July's vote was 8-1, with board member Hajime Takata already dissenting in favor of exactly this move.

The bond market has front-run it. The two-year Japanese government bond yields 1.830%, the most since 1995, and the ten-year touched 3% for the first time since 1996. That matters well outside Japan, because rising domestic yields reduce the incentive for Japanese institutions to hold foreign bonds, and Japan is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries. There is a currency layer as well: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed Governor Kazuo Ueda on yen weakness at the end of August.

The Bank does not pre-announce its release time, so expect the statement Friday during Tokyo hours. Watch the vote split and Ueda's language on the pace from here, because he has already flagged that five hikes are now in the system and the cumulative effect is what the board is arguing about.

• $6 trillion of options expire on Friday

The New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street, where index changes trade at Friday's closing bell

Friday is quarterly options expiration, and Citadel Securities counts roughly $6.2 trillion of notional value dated to September 18, with $9.6 trillion expiring across the first three weeks of the month, or about 35% of total US options exposure. Expirations that large tend to pin prices into Friday and then release them the following Monday.

The rebalance sits on top of it. Bloom Energy, Everpure and Illumina join the S&P 500 and Molson Coors, The Trade Desk and Builders FirstSource come out, with the changes effective before Monday's open. Index funds have to buy the adds and sell the deletes at Friday's close, which is why the closing auction is routinely the highest-volume minute of the quarter.

The positioning backdrop is what makes this one worth watching rather than just noting. Corporate pension plans are about 112% funded, the best since 2001, which creates a mechanical incentive to sell equities and buy long bonds to lock the surplus in. At the same time, demand for S&P 500 downside protection sits in the bottom percentile of the year. Cheap hedges plus a large expiration plus a Fed decision two days earlier is the kind of combination that has produced sharp air pockets before.

• Salesforce brings a financial framework to Dreamforce

Marc Benioff opens a Dreamforce keynote at Moscone Center in San Francisco

Dreamforce runs Tuesday through Thursday at Moscone Center, with Marc Benioff's keynote Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET under the theme "Agentic Enterprise." The session investors should calendar is Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET, when Salesforce holds an investor and analyst meeting at the St. Regis. Investor relations says plainly that the sessions may cover how new products "may support or update the Company's financial framework, projections, and long-term opportunities."

The number to test is Agentforce. Last quarter Salesforce reported revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11%, current remaining performance obligations of $33.5 billion, up 14%, and Agentforce annual recurring revenue above $1.5 billion, up 240% year over year. Combined with Data 360, that figure runs near $3.9 billion. Full-year guidance stands at $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion, and a $25 billion accelerated buyback settles next month.

The tension is arithmetic. Total revenue grows 11% while the AI line grows in triple digits, which means the AI products are still too small to move the company. An updated framework on Wednesday afternoon would say management believes that changes in fiscal 2028. Saying nothing about the framework would say the opposite just as clearly.

Major Economic Events:

The Fed decides Wednesday afternoon, and retail sales land just before.

Monday (9/14): No major US releases; Canada August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, Treasury bill auctions

Tuesday (9/15): Empire State manufacturing survey for September at 8:30 a.m. ET, 20-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, FOMC meeting begins

Wednesday (9/16): August retail sales and import prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, NAHB housing market index and business inventories at 10:00 a.m. ET, FOMC decision and projections at 2:00 p.m. ET, Chair Warsh press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, Treasury international capital data at 4:00 p.m. ET

Thursday (9/17): August housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, pending home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET, Bank of England rate decision at 7:00 a.m. ET

Friday (9/18): August industrial production and capacity utilization, Conference Board leading economic index, Bank of Japan rate decision in Tokyo

What We’re Watching:

1. Retail Sales

Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Census Bureau reports August retail sales, five and a half hours before the Federal Reserve announces its decision. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect a 0.8% monthly gain and 0.6% excluding autos. July fell 0.6%, the first decline in nine months, to a $763.6 billion annual rate.

The July detail read worse than the headline. The control group that feeds into GDP fell 0.4%, nonstore sales dropped 2.2%, and inflation-adjusted volumes fell 0.7%. Sales were still up 5.0% from a year earlier, but average hourly earnings are growing 3.1% against CPI at 3.4%, which means real wages are going backwards even as the nominal totals look fine.

This is the last exhibit for anyone at the Fed who wants to wait. A rebound to 0.8% tells the committee the consumer absorbed higher prices and can absorb higher rates. A second straight decline hands the holdouts the only fresh evidence on their side, hours before they have to vote. Watch the control group rather than the headline, and watch autos, where one strong month can paper over weakness everywhere else.

Economists expect the following:

• Retail sales: +0.8% month over month expected vs. -0.6% prior

• Retail sales excluding autos: +0.6% month over month expected

2. Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday and announces at 2 p.m. Wednesday, alongside a new Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, with Chair Kevin Warsh taking questions at 2:30. The target range is 3.50% to 3.75% and has not moved since December. As of Friday's close, markets put the odds of a quarter-point increase at roughly 85% to 90%.

August's data built the case. Headline CPI held at 3.4% while core rose 0.3% month over month, a tenth hotter than expected, producer prices accelerated to 5.4% annually, and payrolls printed 162,000 against a consensus near 53,000. The July meeting was already a 9-3 hold, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissenting in favor of an increase. Three dissents in one direction is usually the last stop before a majority.

The genuine split is between markets and economists. In a Reuters poll conducted September 4-9, 65 of 93 economists still expected a hold. Because the blackout period began September 5, Governor Christopher Waller's September 3 remarks are the last official word anyone has to work with. Watch the 2026 median dot, which stood at 3.8% in June, since a move to 4.1% or higher would signal that Wednesday is not a one-off. The two-year Treasury already sits at a two-year high and the ten-year is near 5%.

Economists expect the following:

• Federal funds target range: 3.75% to 4.00% expected

• Market-implied odds of a 25-basis point increase: roughly 85% to 90%

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Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

Cover Image Source: Bloomberg | Getty Images

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.

The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.

Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Oracle delivered 300K GPUs to customers.

• Adobe’s AI-specific ARR grew +150% to $650M.

• Kroger’s Precision Marketing profit increased 24% — its strongest performance in five years.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Apple’s cheapest new iPhone costs $1,199.

• OpenAI built a ChatGPT for junior bankers.

• Trump promised every adult citizen $5,000.

Economic Updates:

• August inflation rose 0.4% in a single month.

• Wholesale prices rose 5.4% from a year ago.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Oracle delivered 300K GPUs to customers, Adobe’s AI-specific ARR grew +150% to $650M, and Kroger’s Precision Marketing profit increased 24% — its strongest performance in five years.

• Oracle (ORCL)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $19.3 billion, an increase of +30% YoY

Operating Income: $6.7 billion, an increase of +57% YoY

Profits: $4.8 billion, an increase of +63% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Customer demand for AI Cloud Training and Inferencing Services continues to grow faster than supply. Oracle booked more than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts in Q1 increasing its RPO to $664 billion. Based on the structuring of those new contracts, the Company confirms there is no incremental impact on its plans to raise capital. Since the end of Q4, Oracle also delivered more than 300,000 GPUs to its AI Cloud customers and almost triple the capacity delivered in Q4 FY26.”

My Takeaway

• Adobe (ADBE)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $6.8 billion, an increase of +13% YoY

Operating Income: $2.4 billion, an increase of +8% YoY

Profits: $1.8 billion, an increase of +3% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Adobe delivered record Q3 results, reflecting the strength of our AI innovation, expanding customer reach and leadership across creativity, productivity and customer experience. Reaching a landmark of more than one billion monthly active users is a defining moment for Adobe, and I have confidence that Anil will build on this momentum to drive Adobe’s next chapter of growth and innovation in the AI era.”

My Takeaway

• Kroger (KR)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $34.6 billion, an increase of +2% YoY

Operating Income: $971.0 million, an increase of +13% YoY

Profits: $641.0 million, an increase of +5% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Kroger delivered a solid second quarter, with adjusted EPS growth of 5 percent. I am pleased with the progress we are making. Our teams kept driving value for customers, improving execution in our stores, growing eCommerce profitably and managing costs with discipline. Improving sales momentum remains a top priority. While there is more work to do, I am confident in our plan to become America's favorite grocer.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple’s cheapest new iPhone costs $1,199, OpenAI built a ChatGPT for junior bankers, Trump promised every adult citizen $5,000.

• Apple’s Cheapest New iPhone Costs $1,199

Benjamin Fanjoy | Getty Images

John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on September 1, unveiled the iPhone Duo, Apple’s first foldable, starting at $1,999. Apple also announced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, but did not announce a standard, non-Pro iPhone 18. The least expensive new phone in the lineup is now the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,199, a $100 increase, and the outgoing iPhone 17 was re-listed at $899 from $799.

Splitting the lineup across two launch windows spreads revenue more evenly through the year instead of concentrating it in the December quarter. The Pro models already carry the mix, accounting for 54% of iPhone sales in the first half of 2026 against 26% for the standard iPhone 17.

• OpenAI Built a ChatGPT for Junior Bankers

  

  ChatGPT

Together with Alumni Ventures

Welcome to your new week.

Markets were closed Monday for Labor Day, so the real week starts Tuesday and runs straight into the last clean inflation prints before the September Fed, with Oracle and Adobe reporting the same night in between.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A short week, but Thursday night Adobe & Oracle report.

Tuesday (9/8): ABM Industries, Braze, Canaan, Casey's General Stores, Mission Produce, ServiceTitan, United Natural Foods

Wednesday (9/9): Academy Sports and Outdoors, AeroVironment, American Eagle Outfitters, Caleres, Chewy, CooperCompanies, Core & Main, Korn Ferry, Navan, SailPoint, Signet Jewelers

Thursday (9/10): 1-800-Flowers, Adobe, Copart, Descartes Systems, Designer Brands, Lovesac, Macy's, Oracle, RH, Zumiez

Friday (9/11): Hooker Furnishings, Kroger, MoneyHero

Co-Invest With Firms Like a16z, Bessemer & Y Combinator in Vetted Startups

Rate of Return and Alumni Ventures are giving readers early access to high-potential startup opportunities across today's most active sectors — co-investing alongside firms like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bessemer, and Y Combinator.

You get:

• Curated deal flow of high-potential startups

• Co-investment alongside name-brand venture firms

• No cost to view deals

• No obligation to invest

What We’re Watching:

1. Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe (-23.8% YTD) reports fiscal Q3 earnings Thursday after the close, and the setup is unusually cheap for a company still growing double digits. Shares closed Friday at $266.51 after falling 6.7% in a single session, leaving the stock at roughly 15 times earnings and 28% below its 52-week high. Management has deliberately traded near-term subscriber growth for a freemium land grab. This print decides whether investors treat that as a strategy or as an excuse.

Last quarter, Adobe delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13% year over year. Total ending annual recurring revenue reached $27.1 billion, AI-first ARR crossed $500 million at three times the prior year, and Firefly ARR approached $300 million after growing roughly 50% sequentially. The stock still fell 6.8% the next day.

This quarter, the focus will be on revenue against the $6.70 guide, and whether the freemium push is diluting individual-subscriber ARR faster than AI products can replace it. Investors will also get their first earnings commentary since Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy its next CEO, with the permanent CFO seat still open. A clean beat with intact ARR guidance and evidence that Firefly is monetizing could set up one of the cleaner re-rating opportunities in software. Another in-line quarter with softer individual-subscriber ARR keeps the discount exactly where it is. 

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $4.48 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $6.70 billion.

• You can explore the most recent ADBE investor release here and here.

2. Oracle (ORCL)

Oracle (-18.9% YTD) reports fiscal Q1 earnings Thursday after the close, and no print this week matters more to the AI trade. Shares closed Friday at $158.78, roughly 54% below their 52-week high of $345.72, with options implying a move of nearly 12% either way. The backlog is no longer the debate. What the market wants to know is whether Oracle can convert it into revenue fast enough to justify — and fund — one of the largest AI infrastructure buildouts in the market.

Last quarter, Oracle delivered $19.18 billion in revenue — an $89 billion beat. In addition, remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion — up 363% year over year. It signed $67 billion of AI infrastructure contracts during the quarter and delivered more than 1.2 gigawatts of capacity across the fiscal year. The stock still fell 8.5% the next day.

This quarter, I’ll be watching cloud revenue and how quickly that $638 billion backlog is converting as new capacity comes online. Free cash flow remains the pressure point: Oracle generated negative $23.7 billion in FY26 and now expects roughly $70 billion of net cash capital spending in FY27, alongside approximately $40 billion of new debt and equity financing. A beat with strong backlog conversion and evidence that infrastructure margins are improving could restart the re-rating. A beat that comes with an even wider cash deficit probably does not.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $1.30 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $19.13 billion.

• You can explore the most recent ORCL investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple puts a foldable onstage, Goldman gathers the AI trade in San Francisco, and the NFL season kicks off.

• Apple Puts a Foldable Onstage

The Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park, where Apple holds its "Surprise and Shine" event Wednesday

Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, Apple takes the stage at the Steve Jobs Theater for an event it is calling "Surprise and Shine." The expected lineup runs to the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, the Apple Watch Series 12 and Ultra 4, an overhauled large-language-model Siri, and the company's first foldable iPhone. Pre-orders are expected Saturday, September 12, with retail availability the following Friday.

The foldable is the financial story. Reports point to a device priced above $2,000, roughly a 5.5-inch outer and 7.8-inch inner display, a liquid-metal hinge, and a return to Touch ID. That resets the average selling price at the top of the lineup while pushing the standard iPhone 18 to spring 2027, effectively splitting the launch calendar in two. Watch the pricing and the ship dates more closely than the hardware demos, because both flow straight into December-quarter guidance.

There is a second layer worth noting. This is the first keynote with John Ternus running the show as chief executive, five months after taking the job from Tim Cook, and the first real look at how he wants to position the company's most expensive product ever.

• Goldman Gathers the AI Trade in San Francisco

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang, right, in a fireside chat at a Goldman Sachs event. Source: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs runs its Communacopia + Technology Conference in San Francisco from Tuesday through Friday, and the speaker list reads like a roll call of the names driving this tape. AT&T chief executive John Stankey appears Wednesday at 4:05 p.m. ET, Salesforce sends president Bill Patterson and Slack general manager Rob Seaman the same afternoon, Autodesk follows Wednesday evening, and KLA closes the week on Friday.

The timing is what makes it matter. These are unscripted fireside chats rather than rehearsed earnings calls, and they land in the same four days as Oracle and Adobe results. If enterprise software demand is softening, or if AI spending is finally converting into revenue instead of capital expenditure, an executive is likely to say so offhand in a San Francisco ballroom before any company puts it in a press release. Listen for guidance-adjacent language on cloud consumption, seat growth, and 2027 budget planning.

• The NFL Season Kicks Off

Lumen Field in Seattle, where the Seahawks host the Patriots on Wednesday night

The NFL season kicks off Wednesday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock with a rare midweek opener and a Super Bowl LX rematch, as the defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots they beat 29-13 in February. For investors, the public-market exposure spans the betting, data, and media stack. Flutter Entertainment, owner of FanDuel, and DraftKings sit closest to wagering activity, while Genius Sports remains the NFL’s exclusive distributor of official betting and live-game data through the 2029 season. Amazon, Disney, Fox, Comcast, Paramount Skydance, Alphabet, and Netflix all have exposure through the league’s sprawling media package.

But the more interesting story this season is where the betting dollars are going. The American Gaming Association estimates $29.5 billion will be wagered through regulated U.S. sportsbooks, essentially flat from $29.4 billion last season and the first year without meaningful growth since legalization began scaling nationally. At the same time, prediction markets are taking an increasingly large share of sports activity. That raises the stakes on customer acquisition: Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden has already warned of a “very aggressive, irrational” promotional environment this football season. For DraftKings and Flutter, the key question may be less about how much is wagered and more about how much they have to spend to win and retain those bets. If promotions rise while betting growth stays flat, margins could come under pressure.

Major Economic Events:

Thursday PPI and Friday CPI

Tuesday (9/8): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August, ADP employment change, consumer credit for July, China August trade balance

Wednesday (9/9): MBA mortgage applications, EIA petroleum status report, ECB Governing Council meeting begins in Berlin

Thursday (9/10): August PPI and core PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims, continuing claims, ECB rate decision and Lagarde press conference, EIA natural gas storage

Friday (9/11): August CPI and core CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for September

What We’re Watching:

1. August CPI

Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Consumer Price Index, the last inflation reading the Federal Reserve sees before its September 15-16 meeting. Consensus expects the annual rate to hold at 3.4%. July marked a third straight month of cooling, down from 4.2% in May, with core at 2.5%. The Fed's blackout period began Saturday, September 5, so this number lands with no official commentary to frame it.

The math changed on Friday. August payrolls came in at 162,000 against expectations near 55,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and traders now put the odds of a September rate hike at roughly 60%. That makes CPI the tiebreaker rather than a footnote. A soft core reading keeps a hold alive. A hot one, particularly with oil pushing the headline, makes a hike the base case.

Watch core month over month, services excluding shelter, and how much of the headline is energy. Governor Christopher Waller said last week he would be inclined to hold if disinflation continued through the next two weeks, which effectively turned this print into his condition. Equities want cool and bonds need cool, and the blackout means Friday's number walks into the meeting unmediated.

Economists expect the following:

• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY expected vs. 3.4% prior

• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY prior, with July core up 0.2% MoM

2. August PPI

Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the August Producer Price Index, and consensus points the wrong way. Final-demand producer prices rose 4.7% over the year through July, down from 5.5% in June and 5.9% in May, but economists now expect the annual rate to jump back to 5.3%. Producer prices arrive 24 hours before CPI and usually set the tone for it.

Energy is the reason. Brent traded near $97 a barrel Monday, diesel has moved above $5.90 a gallon, and OPEC+ left October quotas unchanged rather than add supply. Pipeline costs reach consumer prices with a lag, so a hot PPI raises the risk that Friday's CPI is only the first of several uncomfortable prints and that the disinflation trend of the past three months was mostly borrowed time.

Watch core PPI, which rose 0.2% in July, along with trade services margins and the transportation and warehousing components that diesel runs through. A soft print gives the market permission to fade hike odds ahead of CPI. A print at or above 5.3% does the opposite, and it would make an unchanged 3.4% headline on Friday look considerably less reassuring than it reads on paper.

Economists expect the following:

• PPI: 5.3% YoY expected vs. 4.7% prior

• Core PPI: 0.2% MoM prior

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Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

Cover Image Source: Bloomberg | Getty Images

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT ADVICE BASED ON THEIR OWN CIRCUMSTANCES BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION

No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.

The author, publisher or insiders of the publisher may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.

Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and Grit undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.

Grit does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, however arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.

By using the Site or any related social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.

Please read: Terms of Use, Privacy Policy, Disclosure Policy and Disclaimer Policy

If you have any questions please contact us at info@gritcap.io 

👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Broadcom guided to $230B in 2028 semiconductor revenue.

• Snowflake raised its full-year guide for the third quarter in a row.

• Lululemon cut guidance again and lost a fifth of its market cap in a day.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Iran sanctions caused oil to spike 9.7%.

• NVIDIA bought Hugging Face for $12.93B.

• The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund wants less U.S. debt.

Economic Updates:

• August payrolls triple expectations.

• ISM services accelerated to 55.4.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Broadcom guided to $230B in 2028 semiconductor revenue, Snowflake raised its full-year guide for the third quarter in a row, Lululemon cut guidance again and lost a fifth of its market cap in a day.

• Broadcom (AVGO)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $29.6 billion, an increase of +86% YoY

Operating Income: $16.0 billion, an increase of +171% YoY

Profits: $13.1, an increase of +216% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Demand for our custom AI accelerators and networking continues to be very strong. Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion grew 221% year-over-year, and 54% quarter-over-quarter. In Q4 the momentum continues, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $21.7 billion, up 236% year-over-year.”

My Takeaway

• Snowflake (SNOW)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $1.55 billion, an increase of +35% YoY

Operating Income: -$263.0 million, compared to -$340.3 million last year

Profits: A net loss of -$191.7 million, compared to a net loss of -$298.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Q2 marks our third consecutive quarter of product revenue growth acceleration, driven by strength in both our core data platform and a meaningful step-up in AI revenue. Importantly, we delivered this accelerating growth while expanding operating margin. Balancing growth with discipline remains a top priority, and we are raising our full-year product revenue growth guidance to 36% year-over-year.”

My Takeaway

• Lululemon (LULU)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $2.4 billion, compared to $2.5 billion last year

Operating Loss: $453.7 million, compared to $523.8 million last year

Profits: $329.2 million, compared to $370.9 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“While we continue to navigate some challenging dynamics, we are taking a prudent approach with our revised full-year outlook. Our teams remain focused on accelerating growth by strengthening our product offerings, increasing our marketing investments, and maintaining disciplined expense management. Looking ahead, we have confidence in the strength of the lululemon brand, the deep connection we have with our guests and ambassadors, and the significant opportunities we see to drive long-term growth.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Iran sanctions caused oil to spike +9.7%, NVIDIA bought Hugging Face for $12.93B, the largest sovereign wealth fund wants less U.S. debt.

• Iran Sanctions Caused Oil to Spike

Oil posted its sharpest weekly gain of the year after the sanctions campaign against Iran stopped being an American operation and became a transatlantic one.

The European Union formally joined the US-led campaign, codenamed Operation Economic Outcast, widening the target set from oil exports to Iran’s digital assets, technology procurement, gold reserves, civil aviation, and commercial shipping. WTI closed Friday at $91.48 a barrel, up +9.7% from $83.40, with the entire move compressed into four sessions.

The military dimension escalated alongside it. CENTCOM has redirected 87 commercial vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, disabled three, and boarded two. China had been absorbing around 90% of Iran’s sanctioned crude, so if the EU closes the financial rails those cargoes settle on, that volume leaves the market rather than reroutes.

Diesel hit an all-time high of $5.85 a gallon. A ten-dollar move in crude oil prices reaches headline CPI within roughly two months, arriving exactly as the Fed argues about September.

• NVIDIA Bought Hugging Face For $12.93B

Together with Alumni Ventures

Hi everyone,

The question underneath every software stock right now is who owns the surface. For twenty-five years Salesforce had one answer, which is that enterprise work happens inside a Salesforce browser tab. That answer built the tallest building in San Francisco.

As a reminder, this specific deep-dive is written by the GRIT team and is not the exclusive work of Head Analyst Austin Hankwitz.

Software spent the first half of 2026 being priced for obsolescence. The argument was clean enough to fit on a slide. Agents do the work, seats evaporate, and every company billing per user per month becomes a melting ice cube. Salesforce was the obvious poster child, because Salesforce sells more seats than almost anybody.

Then last week the company reported a quarter that looked nothing like a melting ice cube. Bookings accelerated, attrition hit a record low, and the stock had its second-biggest day in company history. Benioff stood on a stage next to Dario Amodei and told the market the death notice had been filed early.

My view is that both stories are partly right, and the market has now overcorrected in the second direction about as fast as it overcorrected in the first. So the job of this issue is to separate what actually improved from what only looked like it improved, because in this particular quarter those are two very different lists.

• Why Now 👉 The Stock Just Had Its Second-Biggest Day Ever

• The Overview 👉 The Company That Invented SaaS, Defending SaaS

• How Do They Win 👉 Twenty Years Of Data Nobody Wants To Migrate

• Business Units 👉 Two Segments Growing At Very Different Speeds

• How Do They Make Money 👉 Seats, Credits, And A Meter They Invented

• By The Numbers 👉 A Record Quarter With A Visible Asterisk

• Bonus Deep Dive 👉 Claudeforce And The Circle Salesforce Just Drew

• Risks 👉 What Would Break This

• Wrapping Up 👉 My Read On What Just Happened

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Why Now 👉 The Stock Just Had Its Second-Biggest Day Ever

On August 26 Salesforce reported fiscal Q2 2027 and announced an expanded partnership with Anthropic called Claudeforce. The next day the stock rose almost 23%. It closed the week at $256, up from about $205 before the print. That was the second-largest single-day move in company history and roughly $38B of market value created in a session.

Two things landed at once. Adjusted EPS came in at $5.90 against a consensus of $3.27, an 80% beat. And Marc Benioff stood next to Dario Amodei and told the market the SaaSpocalypse was over.

Here is the part most of the coverage buried. Of the $2.63 Salesforce beat by, $2.53 came from gains on its strategic investment portfolio. Salesforce holds a stake in Anthropic now carried at roughly $5.1B. Anthropic raised in May at a reported $965B valuation. Salesforce marked the position up and ran the gain straight through both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings.

Strip it out and adjusted EPS was about $3.37 against a $3.27 estimate. A 3% beat. The 80% headline was an accounting event.

The quarter underneath it was still good. cRPO grew 14% in constant currency, CFO Robin Washington said net new annual order value was the strongest in four years, and attrition sat near a record low. Those are real. But the market just repriced a $200B company on a print where the loudest number tells you the least about the business, and that is worth pulling apart.

The Overview 👉 The Company That Invented SaaS, Defending SaaS

Salesforce is the company that made software a subscription. Benioff founded it in 1999 on the argument that enterprise software should not ship on discs. The "No Software" logo was the entire pitch.

Twenty-seven years later it is a roughly $210B market cap doing about $46B a year, with roughly 820M shares outstanding and about 83,000 employees. It sells CRM to most of the Fortune 500, and it is a Dow component, which is unusual for a pure SaaS business.

FY26 revenue was $41.5B, up about 10%. FY27 guidance is now $46.1B to $46.4B. That is the profile of a mature large cap growing in the low double digits.

The problem is that the market spent the first half of 2026 deciding low double digits was the optimistic case. Between January and February the software sector shed something on the order of $2T in market value on the argument that AI agents make seat-based software obsolete. Salesforce fell roughly 28% in that window and kept sliding to a low of $146.32 on June 22. It has nearly doubled off that bottom.

Source: Bloomberg

The bear thesis was specific. If agents do the data entry, the pipeline logging, and the case management, you need fewer seats. Fewer seats means less revenue per customer, and Salesforce sells more seats than almost anyone. The stock traded like terminal value was genuinely in question. Claudeforce is Benioff answering that agents still need somewhere to get their data, their permissions, and their audit trail, and that somewhere is Salesforce.

How Do They Win 👉 Twenty Years Of Data Nobody Wants To Migrate

The moat is not the software. It is the accumulated state.

A company running Salesforce for a decade has millions of customer records, hundreds of thousands of process entries, thousands of custom fields, and a permissions model that took years to negotiate internally. Replacing that is not a software migration. It is a reconstruction of how the business defines a customer. That is why attrition sat near a record low this quarter even while the narrative said the category was dying. Enterprises complain about Salesforce constantly and renew anyway.

The second piece is Data 360, the data layer sitting on the roughly $8B Informatica acquisition. In Q2 it ingested 104 trillion records, up 355% year over year, including 82 trillion through Zero Copy. The bet is that the context layer matters more than the model layer. If an agent needs to know which contract governs which account and who is allowed to change it, the model does not have that. The system of record does.

Source: Company Filings

The counter-argument is that none of this stops an agent from reading Salesforce through an API and writing the answer somewhere cheaper. Connectors exist. Protocol standards for tool access exist. Nothing about owning the records forces the workflow to stay inside Salesforce, and the AI-native CRM startups are built on exactly that premise. Salesforce’s response is that reading is the easy half. An agent that can pull a pipeline is a demo. An agent that can update it needs permissions, an audit trail, and an administrator who can revoke it at two in the morning. That is the part enterprise buyers have actually been waiting on, and it is the part that is hard to rebuild from scratch.

Here is my read. Salesforce is converting a defensive asset into an offensive one. Owning the data and the governance is an excellent position if agents become the primary interface. It is a poor position if agents can reach the same data through cheaper connectors. The entire thesis turns on whether governed action is a durable product or a feature that gets commoditized inside eighteen months.

Together with NEOS Investments

Welcome to your new week.

Broadcom's AI guide, the August jobs report, and Tesla's first Cybercab launch all land in a five-day sprint before the long holiday weekend.

Key Earnings Announcements:

A lighter week of earnings highlighted by Broadcom, Dell and Snowflake.

Monday (8/31): Science Applications International

Tuesday (9/1): Credo Technology, Dell Technologies, GitLab, MongoDB, NIO, Palo Alto Networks

Wednesday (9/2): Broadcom, Five Below, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Snowflake

Thursday (9/3): Campbell's, Ciena, DocuSign, Lululemon, Samsara, UiPath, Zscaler

Friday (9/4): ABM Industries

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What We’re Watching:

1. Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (+6.1% YTD) reports fiscal Q3 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether record hyperscaler commitments are turning into a durable multi-year revenue ramp. AI demand is not the question anymore. The question is whether the next guide makes Broadcom's more than $100 billion fiscal 2027 AI target credible enough to restart the stock. On Friday, shares closed roughly 25% below their 52-week high after the last report failed to clear elevated AI expectations.

Last quarter, AI semiconductor revenue reached $10.8 billion, up 143% year over year, while bookings topped $30 billion. That gap is the opportunity and the risk: the order book is enormous, but investors now need proof that reserved capacity is becoming real deployments. Management guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $29.4 billion, including $16 billion from AI semiconductors.

This quarter, the focus will be on AI semiconductor revenue versus the $16 billion guide, the timing of next-generation custom accelerator ramps, and whether networking remains a meaningful share of the AI mix. Investors will also want customer-by-customer evidence that Broadcom's six major AI buyers are moving from commitments to production. An in-line guide may not be enough for a market underwriting more than $100 billion of fiscal 2027 AI revenue. Any deployment pushout, weaker networking mix, or cautious customer commentary could pressure the stock even if the headline numbers beat.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $2.55 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $29.43 billion.

• You can explore the most recent AVGO investor release here and here.

2. Snowflake (SNOW)

Snowflake (+51.4% YTD) reports fiscal Q2 earnings Wednesday after the close, with investors focused on whether its new AI products are creating durable, incremental consumption across the core data platform. Shares closed Friday at $328.00 for a $113.7 billion market cap, only 4.1% below their 52-week high. That valuation leaves little room for product-revenue growth that merely matches guidance. The stock needs evidence that AI adoption is producing a sustained reacceleration, not just renewed excitement around the product suite.

Last quarter, Snowflake delivered $1.39 billion in total revenue and $1.33 billion in product revenue, up 34% year over year. Remaining performance obligations grew 38%, while management raised its full-year product-revenue outlook from 27% growth to 31%. The company guided fiscal Q2 product revenue to $1.415 billion to $1.420 billion, setting a clear hurdle for whether the acceleration seen last quarter is carrying into the back half of the year.

This quarter, the focus will be on product revenue versus that guide, whether Cortex Code and Snowflake Intelligence are converting rapid adoption into paid recurring consumption, and whether RPO and net revenue retention confirm that demand is broadening. Investors will also be watching the 75% product gross-margin target because Snowflake's AI products carry lower margins than its core platform. The bull case needs an AI-led beat and another guidance raise without sacrificing monetization. An in-line result or faster margin dilution could expose how much reacceleration is already priced into the stock.

Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect -$0.77 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $1.48 billion.

• You can explore the most recent SNOW investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Apple Starts the Ternus Era, G20 Finance Leaders Gather in Asheville, and Tesla Launches Cybercab in Austin

• Apple Starts the Ternus Era

John Ternus, Apple's incoming chief executive. Source: 9to5Mac

Tuesday marks Apple's first CEO change in 15 years. John Ternus officially succeeds Tim Cook, who has led the company since 2011 and now moves into the role of executive chairman. Ternus also joins Apple's board, while longtime chairman Arthur Levinson becomes lead independent director.

The structure is designed for continuity, but the market will still treat it as the start of a new strategic era. Ternus inherits an Apple facing pressure to accelerate its AI roadmap, defend the economics of its services business, and prove that its next hardware cycle can create another durable growth engine. Cook remains close to the company, but operating responsibility now shifts to the executive who has overseen hardware engineering across the iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, and Apple silicon transition.

Read Apple's official succession announcement.

• G20 Finance Leaders Gather in Asheville

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ahead of the G20 finance gathering. Source: 828 News NOW

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet Monday and Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina, with global rates, debt, trade imbalances, and digital assets all on the agenda. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are among the officials expected to participate, putting several of the world's most consequential policymakers in the same room two weeks before a dense run of central-bank decisions.

The U.S. agenda is unusually market-specific. Treasury wants discussion around modernizing financial regulation, debt transparency and restructuring, cross-border payments, fraud, and what it calls a vibrant digital-asset ecosystem. The meeting is unlikely to produce a tradable communique on its own, but it is the week's best venue for unscripted signals on currencies, sovereign debt, and how officials intend to manage the next round of rate decisions.

Read the official G20 calendar and the Treasury agenda.

• Cybercab Launch Event

Tesla Cybercab on display at Santana Row. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Tesla holds an invite-only Cybercab launch Thursday in Austin and plans to livestream the event. The two-seat vehicle has no steering wheel or pedals and is designed to join the company's existing Robotaxi service. Production vehicles have begun emerging from Giga Texas, but the launch is a product and service milestone, not blanket regulatory approval for deployment across the country.

That distinction is the trade. Investors will be listening for when employee rides become public rides, how quickly Cybercabs enter the Austin fleet, and whether Tesla provides any evidence that the service can scale beyond a tightly controlled geography. The vehicle itself matters less than the operating data: fleet size, paid rides, intervention rates, utilization, and the regulatory path into additional cities.

Read Tesla's official event page and launch preview.

Major Economic Events:

Manufacturing opens the week and Friday's jobs report decides whether July was a break or the start of a trend.

Monday (8/31): Chicago PMI for August, Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, China official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, Germany preliminary CPI, Japan retail sales

Tuesday (9/1): August ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, Construction spending, Eurozone preliminary CPI, G20 finance meeting concludes

Wednesday (9/2): ADP employment change, Factory orders, Bank of Canada rate decision, Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision, MBA mortgage applications

Thursday (9/3): August ISM Services PMI, Initial jobless claims, Continuing claims, U.S. trade balance, Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, EIA petroleum inventories

Friday (9/4): August Employment Situation, Average hourly earnings, Unemployment rate, Canada employment report, Germany factory orders, Eurozone retail sales

What We’re Watching:

1. August Jobs Report

Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Employment Situation, the final jobs report before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. A Reuters poll expects payrolls to rise by 58,000 after July's surprise decline of 23,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. One clean rebound would make July look like noise. A second weak print would turn it into a trend.

The market is caught between two outcomes it does not especially want. A sharp hiring rebound paired with hotter wage growth would revive the rate-hike debate, while another negative payroll print would raise the risk that the labor market is rolling over faster than policymakers can respond. The cleanest equity outcome is modest positive job growth, stable unemployment, and wage inflation that does not reaccelerate.

Watch revisions as closely as the headline. The last report changed the tone of the entire September meeting, and Friday can change it back. Average hourly earnings, the labor-force participation rate, and the diffusion index will show whether weakness is narrow or spreading beneath the aggregate number.

Economists expect the following:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +58,000 expected vs. -23,000 prior

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% expected, unchanged

2. ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET the Institute for Supply Management reports August manufacturing activity. The headline index reached 55.6 in July, its strongest level in more than four years and the seventh straight month of expansion. Consensus expects a small cooling to 55.3, which would still leave the factory sector comfortably above the 50-point expansion line.

The composition matters more than a few tenths on the headline. New orders were 56.7 in July, production jumped to 58.5, and employment crossed back above 50 for the first time since January 2025. Prices paid remained elevated at 71.1, so a resilient growth reading with another increase in input costs would be the most difficult combination for bonds and rate-sensitive stocks.

This report lands three days before payrolls and one day before ADP, making it the first clean read on whether July's labor weakness extended into August. Watch employment, new orders, and prices paid together. Strong orders with steady hiring would confirm the industrial rebound. Falling employment with sticky prices would look much closer to stagflation.

Economists expect the following:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 expected vs. 55.6 prior

• Expansion threshold: 50.0

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Nvidia guided to $675B in 2028 revenue.

• Salesforce’s AI-specific revenue crossed $4 billion.

• Crowdstrike believes AI agents will be a massive tailwind for the business.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sent rate-hike expectations soaring at Jackson Hole.

• The world’s biggest technology companies unveiled their next generation of AI chips.

• The U.S.–Canada trade war escalated.

Economic Updates:

• The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge remains above target.

• The latest GDP report showed surprisingly strong consumer spending and corporate profits.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Nvidia guided to $675B in 2028 revenue, Salesforce’s AI-specific revenue crossed $4 billion, and Crowdstrike believes AI agents will be a massive tailwind for the business.

• Nvidia (NVDA)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $96.2 billion, an increase of +106% YoY

Operating Income: $63.73 billion, an increase of +124% YoY

Profits: $59.69 billion, an increase of +126% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue.

And demand is accelerating. This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout; today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online — with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world. The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam. Vera Rubin, now in full production, was built to power exactly this moment.”

My Takeaway

• Salesforce (CRM)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $11.35 billion, an increase of +11% YoY

Operating Income: $2.33 billion, compared to $2.33 billion last year

Profits: $3.53 billion, an increase of +87% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We just delivered one of our best quarters ever, outperforming across every key metric.

AI is delivering value across every layer of our platform. We’re seeing incredible demand for our AI and data products, with ARR about to cross $4 billion. And with AIforce, our trusted enterprise harness, we’re unlocking the data, workflows, business logic, actions, and governance inside Salesforce and making it available to every agent, model, and interface. This is how we are turning AI into customer success at unprecedented scale."

My Takeaway

• Crowdstrike (CRWD)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $1.47 billion, an increase of +26% YoY

Operating Loss: -$33.2 million, compared to -$105.5 million last year

Profits: $5.3 million, compared to a net loss of -$70.2 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“CrowdStrike delivered the best quarter in our history, with record net new ARR, accelerating Falcon Flex adoption, and strong momentum across our platform. We are seeing customers consolidate more of their security stack with CrowdStrike as they respond to the rapidly expanding AI attack surface, making AI security one of our largest market opportunities.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sent rate-hike expectations soaring at Jackson Hole, the world’s biggest technology companies unveiled their next generation of AI chips, and the U.S.–Canada trade war escalated.

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Takes the Stage at Jackson Hole

Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address as chairman to make one thing very clear: the Fed is not ready to declare victory over inflation.

Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s 2% inflation target and argued that policymakers need to be confident inflation is moving back toward that level “clearly and at sufficient speed.” He also signaled a philosophical shift in how the Fed communicates with markets, criticizing the regular use of forward guidance and arguing that policymakers should preserve more flexibility rather than effectively pre-committing to future interest-rate decisions.

Markets heard the speech as decidedly hawkish. The probability of a September rate hike jumped from roughly 35% before Warsh spoke to about 56% afterward, while the 2-year Treasury yield surged nearly 13 basis points to 4.36%. With inflation still well above target and the economy remaining relatively resilient, Warsh essentially put incoming jobs and inflation data back in the driver’s seat heading into September.

• Hot Chips 2026 Showcases the Next Generation of AI Hardware

@benitoz on X

Welcome to your new week.

The most valuable company on earth reports Wednesday night into a tape that has already lost its nerve, and 36 hours later a brand-new Fed chair walks to a podium in Wyoming for the first time.

Key Earnings Announcements:

Software and retail close out the season, with the single largest print of the quarter landing Wednesday after the bell.

Monday (8/24): Gorilla Technology Group, Napco Security Technologies, PDD Holdings, PicPay, Tuya, Woodside Energy, XPeng

Tuesday (8/25): Bank of Montreal, BOSS Zhipin, Box, Dick's Sporting Goods, EHang, Electromed, Gold Fields, Heico, Intuit, Joyy, nCino, Qifu Technology, Scotiabank, SelectQuote, Semtech, Strattec, Vipshop, Zoom Communications

Wednesday (8/26): Abercrombie & Fitch, Agilent Technologies, Bath & Body Works, CrowdStrike, Donaldson, Dycom Industries, Haidilao, J.M. Smucker, Kohl's, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Nutanix, Okta, Ooma, Photronics, Salesforce, Synopsys, Veeva Systems, Williams-Sonoma

Thursday (8/27): Affirm Holdings, Autodesk, Best Buy, Bilibili, Burlington Stores, CIBC, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Elastic, Gap, HealthEquity, Hormel Foods, IREN, Marvell Technology, Royal Bank of Canada, Rubrik, SentinelOne, TD Bank, Ulta Beauty, Workday

Friday (8/28): Chagee Holdings, Miniso Group

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What We’re Watching:

1. NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA (+15.1% YTD) reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, and it is the only number this week that can move the entire index. Shares closed Friday at $214.72 for a $5.20 trillion market cap, 8.9% below the $235.74 record close set on May 14. The stock has slipped in each of the last three sessions into the print, which tells you how much is riding on the guide rather than the quarter.

Last quarter, NVIDIA delivered revenue of $81.6 billion, up 20% sequentially and 85% year over year, with Data Center alone at $75.2 billion. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.39 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.87. Management guided Q2 to $91.0 billion plus or minus 2% with gross margins around 75%, and explicitly assumed zero Data Center compute revenue from China.

This quarter, the bar is a rounding error above the guide. Consensus sits at $91.9 billion in revenue and $2.08 in adjusted EPS, roughly 96% revenue growth against the $46.7 billion NVIDIA did a year ago. But the quarter is not the trade. The Street is carrying about $104 billion for October, and a guide below that number is the setup for a selloff even on a beat. Watch the Vera Rubin ramp commentary, whether any China compute revenue gets added back into the outlook, and how management frames hyperscaler capex into 2027.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $2.06 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $92.07 billion.

• You can explore the most recent NVDA investor release here and here.

2. Salesforce (CRM)

Salesforce (-21.0% YTD) reports Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday after the close, on the same night as NVIDIA, and it is the cleanest test yet of whether enterprise AI spending actually converts into software revenue. Shares closed Friday at $209.17 for a $171.3 billion market cap, 43.1% below the $367.87 record close from December 2024. The stock trades at 24.2 times trailing earnings, which is the market pricing Salesforce as a company AI disrupts rather than one AI lifts.

Last quarter, Salesforce delivered revenue of $11.13 billion, up 13% year over year and 12% in constant currency, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 against a $3.13 consensus. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 250 basis points to 34.8%, cRPO hit $33.6 billion, and operating cash flow came in at $6.7 billion. Agentforce annual recurring revenue crossed $1.2 billion, up 205%, and the company delivered 3.8 billion agentic work units. The stock fell anyway.

This quarter, consensus is $11.33 billion in revenue and $3.27 in adjusted EPS, which lands at the top of management's own $11.27 billion to $11.35 billion guide and a penny above the high end on earnings. That is the same trap Walmart walked into last week. Watch cRPO growth as the real forward indicator, whether Agentforce ARR keeps compounding at triple digits, and whether management holds the second-half organic reacceleration it promised in May. Marketing, Commerce, and Tableau are still the soft spots.

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $1.80 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $11.33 billion.

• You can explore the most recent CRM investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Canada sets a retaliation date after trade talks collapse, the Strait of Hormuz stays shut as Washington escalates on Iran, and an $880 million brokerage merger creates a 180,000-agent platform.

• Canada Retaliates As Trade Talks Collapse

The Ambassador Bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Trade talks between Washington and Ottawa fell apart Friday, and just after midnight Saturday the United States began collecting an additional 50% duty on roughly $20 billion to $28 billion of Canadian goods. The list runs through wine, furniture, dairy, cement, clothing, fishing rods, and hockey equipment, and unlike most existing measures it applies even to goods that would otherwise qualify under the USMCA. Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled his negotiators and suspended talks.

Canada's response has a date on it. Retaliatory tariffs take effect September 8, the day after Labour Day, aimed at American steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called the breakdown a missed opportunity for Canada and said no further talks are scheduled. Premiers Doug Ford, David Eby, Wab Kinew, and Scott Moe lined up behind Carney, with Alberta's Danielle Smith the lone dissent.

The market question is the two-week gap. Between now and September 8 there is an open window for a deal, and every day it stays open is a day the exposed names trade on headlines rather than fundamentals. Watch the Canadian dollar, cross-border rail and truck volumes, and the auto supply chain through Windsor. Watch too whether the September Canada Investment Summit in Toronto becomes a venue for a climbdown or a stage for escalation.

• Iran Sanctions Push Oil Higher

Iranian naval forces board the tanker MT Wila in the Gulf of Oman. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Brent settled at $94.39 Friday, up 6.39% on the week, and WTI settled at $87.06, up 5.66%. Both touched their highest levels since July 24. The move came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the United States will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran and intends to collapse the regime.

The supply math behind the move is worse than the headlines suggest. The 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expired Friday with no renewal, leaving the waterway effectively blockaded. Iranian exports through Hormuz fell to 46,800 barrels per day in the week of August 10, down from 1.545 million barrels per day in the week of June 29, according to Kpler. That is a 97% collapse in seven weeks. The U.S. military has escorted more than 660 million barrels through the strait since early May.

This is now a two-sided squeeze. Crude is tight because Iranian barrels are stranded, and diesel is tight because Ukrainian strikes keep taking Russian refining capacity offline. That combination hits transport, chemicals, and airlines directly, and it lands in the July PCE print Wednesday and every inflation print after it. Watch tanker rates, the Brent-WTI spread, and whether OPEC members signal any willingness to fill the gap.

• Real And RE/MAX Close To Form Real REMAX Group

A RE/MAX hot air balloon, the company's signature marketing symbol. Source: Wikimedia Commons

The $880 million combination of The Real Brokerage and RE/MAX Holdings closes Monday, after the Supreme Court of British Columbia granted final approval on Friday. Real executes a 10-for-1 share consolidation at 4:01 p.m. ET Monday, and the combined Real REMAX Group begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker REAX at Tuesday's open.

The cash election came in heavily oversubscribed. Holders of roughly 18.5 million RE/MAX Class A shares elected the $13.80 cash option, about $255 million against an $80 million cap, so those holders get prorated to roughly $4.33 in cash plus 0.3535 Real REMAX shares. Stock electors receive 0.515 shares. Approximately 99% of Real votes cast and 78.8% of RE/MAX voting power backed the deal on August 14, and the Justice Department granted early HSR termination in mid-July.

On a pro forma 2025 basis the combined company generates about $2.3 billion in revenue and $157 million in adjusted EBITDA across more than 180,000 agents. That makes this the largest agent-count platform in North American residential real estate, built on a technology-first brokerage model bolted onto a franchise network. Watch the index mechanics Tuesday, agent retention through the fall selling season, and how management frames the synergy target on its first combined call. Existing home sales are still running near multi-decade lows, which is exactly why this deal exists.

Major Economic Events:

The Jackson Hole symposium opens Thursday and July PCE lands Wednesday morning.

Monday (8/24): Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech, 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

Tuesday (8/25): S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for June, FHFA house price index for June, New home sales for July, Conference Board consumer confidence for August, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing survey, ADP weekly employment change, 2-year note auction

Wednesday (8/26): July personal income and spending, July PCE and core PCE price indexes, Q2 GDP second estimate, July durable goods orders, Core capital goods orders, MBA mortgage applications, EIA petroleum inventories, 5-year note auction

Thursday (8/27): Initial jobless claims, Continuing claims, Advance goods trade balance, Retail and wholesale inventories, Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, ECB meeting accounts, Jackson Hole symposium opens, 7-year note auction

Friday (8/28): Chicago PMI for August, University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for August, Preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole, Canada Q2 GDP

What We’re Watching:

1. Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

The Fed has held at 3.50% to 3.75% since March. Source: Federal Reserve via Perplexity Finance

The Kansas City Fed opens its annual symposium at Jackson Lake Lodge on Thursday, and Friday morning Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair of the Federal Reserve. He was sworn in on May 22. Roughly 120 invitees from more than 70 countries attend, and this year's theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" — the first time payments and fintech have been the organizing center of the conference.

The timing is what makes it consequential. The speech falls about 18 days before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which arrives with a fresh dot plot. The Fed has held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% since March, and the July meeting produced a 9-3 vote with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. Three dissents in the same direction is a rare signal, and nothing has resolved it since.

Warsh has spent his career arguing that markets lean too hard on Fed forward guidance, and he offered none at his July press conference. That is the tension heading into Friday. A chair who does not believe in guidance is standing at the one podium where every predecessor used it. Read for how he frames the inflation-versus-labor tradeoff, whether he acknowledges the hawkish minority on his own committee, and any signal on how this Fed intends to communicate at all. The agenda itself is not published until Wednesday evening.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Fed funds target range: 3.50% to 3.75%, unchanged since March 2026

• July FOMC vote: 9-3, with three dissents in favor of a hike

• Next FOMC decision: September 15-16, with an updated dot plot

2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

Headline versus core PCE inflation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via Perplexity Finance

Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports July PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside personal income and spending, July durable goods, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Four releases in the same minute, nine hours before NVIDIA reports. Core PCE is expected at 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, unchanged from June. Headline PCE is expected at 0.1% and 3.6%, down from 3.7%.

The problem is not the monthly number, it is the stall. Core PCE has printed at or above 3.3% for four straight months, the longest stretch at that level since the fall of 2023, and it sits a full 130 basis points above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's own July projections put 2026 PCE inflation at 3.6% and core at 3.3%, meaning the central bank has effectively penciled in no further progress this year. July PPI came in unchanged, which is the main argument the doves have for a September hold.

Energy is the wildcard. Brent rose more than 6% last week on the Iran escalation, and that feeds straight into the August and September headline prints even if core holds. Also worth watching: personal spending is expected at 0.2% against income at 0.3%, meaning the savings rate ticks up and the consumer keeps pulling back. If core surprises to the upside two days before Warsh speaks, the hawkish minority on the FOMC gets a lot louder.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Core PCE: +0.2% MoM & 3.3% YoY expected

• Headline PCE: +0.1% MoM & 3.6% YoY expected vs. 3.7% prior

• Durable goods orders: +0.7% expected vs. +0.3% prior

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• Analog Devices exceeded $4 billion in quarterly revenue as AI data center demand accelerated.

• Walmart’s advertising business grew 38% as its higher-margin digital businesses continued to scale.

• Home Depot saw momentum in 13 of 16 departments as demand broadened across smaller projects.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• Nvidia unveils a $500B AI financing platform with six banks.

• 30Y Treasury yield hit a 19-year high before Treasury buybacks.

• Berkshire’s 13F revealed an 83% Alphabet stake boost to $37.8B.

Economic Updates:

• FOMC minutes show three regional presidents wanted hikes.

• August flash PMI hit a 52-month high on services.

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

Analog Devices exceeded $4 billion in quarterly revenue as AI data center demand accelerated, Walmart’s advertising business grew 38% as its higher-margin digital businesses continued to scale, and Home Depot saw momentum in 13 of 16 departments as demand broadened across smaller projects.

• Analog Devices (ADI)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $4.02 billion, an increase of +40% YoY

Operating Income: $1.61 billion, an increase of +97% YoY

Profits: $1.34 billion, an increase of +158% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

"ADI delivered a strong third quarter, exceeding the midpoint of our revenue, margin, and earnings outlook as we capitalized on broad-based demand. We continue to extend our leadership through a powerful combination of innovation, deep customer collaboration, and manufacturing agility. Our investments in these foundational areas, combined with the trust we have built over decades, provide a unique advantage to create, deliver, and capture value in the AI era – for customers and investors alike."

My Takeaway

• Walmart (WMT)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $187.9 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $9.38 billion, an increase of +29% YoY

Profits: $6.37 billion, compared to $7.03 billion last year

Earnings Release Callout

“Our team delivered another good quarter, and we continue to make steady progress on the long-term value drivers of our business. Our multi-year growth in eCommerce is evidence that customers are choosing Walmart because we deliver price, speed, and convenience across a broad assortment. At Walmart, they can have it all.”

My Takeaway

• Home Depot (HD)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $47.86 billion, an increase of +6% YoY

Operating Income: $6.84 billion, an increase of +4% YoY

Profits: $4.77 billion, an increase of +5% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations. We saw broad based demand across the business as customers continued to engage in smaller projects.”

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Nvidia unveils a $500B AI financing platform with six banks, 30Y Treasury yield hit a 19-year high before Treasury buybacks, and Berkshire’s 13F revealed an 83% Alphabet stake boost to $37.8B.

• Nvidia Assembles A $500 Billion AI Financing Platform

Nvidia disclosed on Aug 10 that it has entered into memoranda of understanding with six of the world’s largest financial institutions — Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR — to build a $500 billion private-capital platform dedicated to financing AI data center buildouts, GPU purchases, and infrastructure leases.

The structure is unprecedented: third-party investors commit up to $500 billion of primary capital; Nvidia has the option (not the obligation) to backstop up to $125 billion of that pool at pre-agreed terms; and Nvidia is separately guaranteeing $105 billion of OpenAI data center lease obligations. Broadcom is reportedly working on a smaller but structurally similar platform in the $60–100 billion range with a different bank group.

The strategic shift here is enormous. Twelve months ago the AI capex debate was whether hyperscalers would meaningfully out-spend their own earnings on GPUs; today Nvidia is directly organizing the third-party capital pool that will let neoclouds and sovereign AI programs match hyperscaler-scale purchases without ever taking on that risk themselves.

• 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits A 19-Year High

Welcome to your new week.

Retail sales just posted their steepest drop in over a year, and this week the two biggest retailers in America report earnings on either side of the Fed minutes. Lots of action as we wrap the summer up!

Key Earnings Announcements:

Retail takes over the calendar with roughly 200 companies set to report this week.

Monday (8/17): BHP Group, Build-A-Bear Workshop, DocGo, Fabrinet, Flexsteel Industries, H World Group, Medtronic, XP Inc.

Tuesday (8/18): Agilent Technologies, Amer Sports, Baidu, H&R Block, Home Depot, iQIYI, Jack Henry & Associates, Keysight Technologies, Klarna Group, La-Z-Boy, Mercury Systems, Pony AI, Toll Brothers, ZTO Express

Wednesday (8/19): Amcor, Analog Devices, BILL Holdings, Coty, Estée Lauder, Lowe's, Nordson, Progressive, Raymond James Financial, Target, TJX Companies, Viking Holdings, Webull, Zim Integrated Shipping

Thursday (8/20): Advance Auto Parts, Affirm Holdings, Alibaba, Deere & Company, Flowers Foods, Grab Holdings, Marvell Technology, NetEase, Peloton Interactive, Ross Stores, Walmart, Workday

Friday (8/21): BJ's Wholesale Club, Buckle, Ubiquiti

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What We’re Watching:

1. Home Depot (HD)

Home Depot (-1.5% YTD) reports Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday before the open, and the question is whether the housing consumer is still frozen or finally thawing. Shares closed Friday at $338.86 for a $337.9 billion market cap, leaving the stock 21.4% below the $431.37 record close it set in December 2024. Options are pricing a 4.2% move against a 3.8% average on recent reports, and the stock fell 3.6% after the last print.

Last quarter, Home Depot delivered net sales of $41.8 billion, up 4.8% year over year, but comparable sales rose just 0.6% and U.S. comps only 0.4%. Gross margin was 33.0%, operating margin 11.9%, and adjusted EPS came in at $3.43 against GAAP EPS of $3.30. Management reaffirmed the full year at 2.5% to 4.5% sales growth, flat to 2% comps, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4% off a $14.69 base.

This quarter, the focus is on the gap between sales and comps. The GMS acquisition is inflating the top line while the underlying store business barely grows, which means the headline revenue number will look better than the demand actually is. Watch the Pro versus DIY split, whether big-ticket discretionary projects are coming back at all with mortgage rates near 6.65%, and how much tariff cost is landing in gross margin. Housing affordability is the whole story here, and Tuesday's housing starts print arrives 30 minutes before the call.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $4.61 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $47.2 billion.

• You can explore the most recent HD investor release here and here.

2. Walmart (WMT)

Walmart (+3.5% YTD) reports Q2 2027 earnings Thursday before the open, and it is the single most important read on the American consumer this month. Shares closed Friday at $115.27 for a $917.3 billion market cap, 14.1% below the $134.20 record close from May. Options are pricing a 4.6% move against a 5.3% average, and Walmart dropped 8.0% after its last report — the exact same setup as a year ago, when the Street sat at the top of guidance and the print disappointed.

Last quarter, Walmart delivered revenue of $177.75 billion, up 7.3% and 5.9% in constant currency, with adjusted EPS of $0.66 and GAAP EPS of $0.67. Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 4.1%, global eCommerce grew 26%, advertising jumped 37%, and membership income climbed 17.4%. Operating income rose only 5.0%, held back by a $175 million fuel headwind.

This quarter, consensus sits at $0.74 adjusted EPS against management's own guidance range of $0.72 to $0.74 — the Street is at the very top of the guide, which is how you get an 8% drawdown on an in-line quarter. Watch the high-margin flywheel: advertising, membership, and marketplace now drive most of the profit growth while merchandise margins stay thin. This is also John Furner's second full quarter as CEO after taking over in February, and the first real test of whether he raises the full-year outlook or plays it safe with a soft consumer and tariffs still moving.

Walmart Inc. (WMT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $0.74 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $186.9 billion.

• You can explore the most recent WMT investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The largest apartment merger in U.S. history closes Monday, Google faces a court-ordered deadline to open Android to rival app stores, and 50% tariffs on Canadian goods take effect Wednesday.

• AvalonBay And Equity Residential Close To Form Vivmark

Avalon Somerville Station, an AvalonBay community in New Jersey. Source: Wikimedia Commons

The merger of AvalonBay Communities (AVB) and Equity Residential (EQR) closes Monday, creating Vivmark Residential, which begins trading Tuesday under the ticker VMRK. Equity Residential shareholders receive 2.793 shares for each AvalonBay share, and both shareholder bases approved the deal with more than 99% of votes cast.

The combined company owns more than 180,000 apartment homes with over 10,000 units under construction, carrying roughly $53 billion in pro forma equity market capitalization and about $71 billion in enterprise value. That makes Vivmark the largest publicly traded apartment owner in the country by a wide margin, with concentrated positions in coastal gateway markets plus expansion markets in the Sun Belt.

The read-through matters beyond the two tickers. Apartment REITs have spent two years absorbing a record multifamily supply wave while rent growth flattened, and consolidation at this scale is what happens when public-market valuations sit below replacement cost. Watch index inclusion mechanics Tuesday, whether the combined dividend policy holds, and how management frames the synergy target on the first call. If Vivmark trades well, expect more of these.

• Google Hits A Court Deadline To Open The Play Store

A Google Store location in New York. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Google faces a Thursday deadline to fix how the Play Store handles rival app stores, after U.S. District Judge James Donato ordered changes at an August 13 hearing in the Northern District of California and gave the company one week to comply. Google must replace the "View" button with "Install" for third-party app stores, eliminate the "are you looking for" interstitial that redirects users back to Play, and fix search results that bury competing storefronts.

The order enforces the permanent injunction Donato issued in October 2024 in Epic Games v. Google, which the Ninth Circuit upheld in July 2025. Google only began carrying third-party stores inside Play on July 22, 2026, and Aptoide became the first rival storefront to actually appear there on August 10. Donato's position is that the implementation was designed to technically comply while functionally discouraging anyone from using it.

This is the friction point for the whole app-economy trade. Google's Play Store generates high-margin, high-retention revenue inside Alphabet's Services line, and every barrier that comes down is a step toward the outcome Epic has been chasing since 2020. Watch what Google actually ships by Thursday, whether Donato accepts it, and whether Apple's parallel App Store obligations start moving in the same direction. Alphabet closed Friday at $345.90.

• U.S. 50% Tariffs On Canada Take Effect Wednesday

The Ambassador Bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario. Source: Wikimedia Commons

At 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, the United States begins collecting an additional 50% duty on 554 tariff lines of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — the first time that provision has ever been used. The measure covers roughly $20 billion to $28 billion of imports, about 5.2% of the $383 billion the U.S. bought from Canada in 2025, and unlike most existing tariffs it applies even to goods that would otherwise qualify for exemption under the USMCA.

The targeted list runs through alcohol, dairy, autos, cement, furniture, and hockey sticks. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc has met U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer four times in three weeks, including twice last week, and Greer said Friday that Washington will proceed unless Canada drops its retaliatory measures. Quebec Economy Minister Bernard Drainville said after a Friday briefing that the two sides remain "quite far from an agreement."

The market question is not the $20 billion. It is precedent. Section 338 lets a president impose duties up to 50% by proclamation without an investigation, and using it against a treaty partner establishes that a signed trade agreement is not a ceiling. Canada's chief negotiator has warned that new tariffs on Wednesday would be a "cliff" that halts talks and forces retaliation. Watch autos, rail volumes, and the Canadian dollar, and watch whether a deal lands in the final 48 hours.

Major Economic Events:

FOMC minutes Wednesday and July housing starts Tuesday.

Monday (8/17): NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Treasury international capital flows, 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

Tuesday (8/18): July housing starts, July building permits, Industrial production, Capacity utilization, Manufacturing production, Redbook retail sales, Pending home sales, 6-week bill auction, API crude oil stocks

Wednesday (8/19): MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting, EIA petroleum inventories, 17-week bill auction, 20-year bond reopening

Thursday (8/20): Initial jobless claims, Continuing claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Conference Board Leading Economic Index, Existing home sales, EIA natural gas storage, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions, 30-year TIPS auction

Friday (8/21): S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, S&P Global flash services PMI, S&P Global flash composite PMI, Baker Hughes rig count

What We’re Watching:

1. FOMC Minutes

Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET the Fed releases the minutes from its July 28-29 meeting, and this set matters more than usual because of how the vote went. The committee held rates steady 9-3, with Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari, and Dallas' Lorie Logan all dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike. Three dissents in the same direction had not happened since September 2016. Chair Kevin Warsh, in office since May, offered no forward guidance at the press conference.

Everything since has cut the other way. July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus of +80,000 with 103,000 in downward revisions, July CPI landed exactly in line at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, retail sales dropped 0.6% in the steepest decline in over a year, and preliminary University of Michigan sentiment fell roughly 8% to 51. Odds of a September hike have fallen from about 67% on August 3 to roughly 40% now, with December replacing September as the most likely timing.

So the minutes are a snapshot of a hawkish debate that the data has since undermined. What to read for: how many participants beyond the three dissenters saw a hike as appropriate, what the committee said about labor market softening before payrolls went negative, and any discussion of the bar for moving in September. Bank of America and PGIM still expect hikes at all three remaining meetings. Barclays, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, Truist, and UBS expect holds. The next meeting is September 15-16 and it comes with a dot plot.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Odds of a September rate hike: 40% now vs. 67% on August 3

• Fed funds target range: 3.50% to 3.75%, held for a fifth straight meeting

• July FOMC vote: 9-3, with three dissents in favor of a hike

2. Housing Starts And Building Permits

Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET the Census Bureau reports July housing starts and building permits, 30 minutes before Home Depot's earnings call. June was a head fake: total starts jumped 19.0% month over month to a 1,427,000 annual rate, but the entire gain came from multifamily, which surged to 513,000. Single-family starts fell to 895,000, down 0.2% on the month and 3.2% year over year.

Consensus calls for starts to fall back to 1,365,000 in July while permits tick up to 1,395,000 from 1,374,000. The forward-looking indicator is uglier. The NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index fell 2 points to 34 in July and has now sat below 40 for 15 consecutive months, the longest such stretch since 2012. Thirty-seven percent of builders cut prices in July and 63% used some form of sales incentive. The August reading lands Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

This is the transmission channel that connects everything else in the week. Mortgage rates near 6.65% keep single-family construction suppressed, which shows up in Home Depot's Pro business Tuesday and Lowe's Wednesday, and it is exactly the kind of interest-rate-sensitive weakness that argues against the September hike the July minutes will show three governors wanted. If single-family starts break below 890,000, that becomes a much harder argument for the hawks to make.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Housing starts: 1,365,000 expected vs. 1,427,000 prior

• Building permits: 1,395,000 expected vs. 1,374,000 prior

• Industrial production: +0.2% MoM expected vs. +0.1% prior

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Grit is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. Grit does not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient. Grit does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• AST SpaceMobile’s 60 partnerships now cover 3 billion subscribers.

• CoreWeave’s revenue doubled to $2.6B on a $104B backlog.

• Cerebras Systems secured 600 megawatts of data-center capacity to support their $25B backlog.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• S&P 500 notched its 27th record close of 2026.

• Jane Street lost $15B in July — its worst month ever.

• Nvidia disclosed a $21B SpaceX stake, now its #2 position.

Economic Updates:

• July CPI cooled to 3.4% headline, 2.5% core — a 4-year low.

• July retail sales fell -0.6% — the first drop in 9 months.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

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👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

AST SpaceMobile’s 60 partnerships now cover 3 billion subscribers, CoreWeave’s revenue doubled to $2.6B on a $104B backlog, Cerebras Systems secured 600 megawatts of data-center capacity to support their $25B backlog.

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $31.5 million, an increase of +2,617% YoY

Operating Loss: -$297.6 million, compared to -$72.8 million last year

Net Loss: -$230.9 million, compared to -$99.4 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"Following the recent orbital launch of BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13, our space-based cellular broadband network has now grown to 13 spacecraft in orbit… as we get ready to ship BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16. We remain focused on ramping production, expanding vertical integration, and building out nearly 50 global gateways to scale network infrastructure for upcoming beta services."

My Takeaway

• CoreWeave (CRWV)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $2.6 billion, an increase of +112% YoY

Operating Loss: -$285.0 million, compared to -$145.0 million last year

Net Loss: -$626.0 million, compared to -$210.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

“CoreWeave reached an important inflection point this quarter as our scale began to translate into expanding operating leverage. Customer demand is accelerating, as enterprise adoption broadens and we continue to deepen our technology platform. CoreWeave is built on the conviction that AI is foundational to every industry and that realizing its full potential requires a purpose-built platform. This quarter reinforced that conviction."

My Takeaway

• Cerebras Systems (CBRS)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $180.1 million, an increase of +74% YoY

Operating Loss: -$477.2 million, compared to -$145.2 million

Net Loss: -$450.5 million, compared to $309.5 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"Looking ahead, we see boundless demand for fast inference. The market is realizing that speed is not just a benchmark metric. Speed transforms user engagement, agent performance, and AI productivity... As previously shared, 2026 is a foundational year for Cerebras. In the seven weeks since our last earnings call, we have made exceptional progress on multiple fronts, positioning us for scaled growth in 2027, 2028, and 2029, during which we will deliver on the current $25 billion in remaining performance obligations."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

S&P 500 notched its 27th record close of 2026, Jane Street lost $15B in July — its worst month ever, and Nvidia disclosed a $21B SpaceX stake, now its #2 position.

• S&P 500 Notched Its 27th Record Close

The market strung together another leg higher this week before finally cooling on Friday. The S&P 500 climbed to 7,798.99 on Thursday for its 27th record close of the year — driven by cooler-than-expected July PPI on Wednesday and a benign July CPI print on Tuesday — before dipping -0.17% Friday to 7,785.76 after retail sales missed hard. The Nasdaq Composite made its own new record intraday at 26,803 on Thursday, and the week finished with the S&P up +0.4% for its third straight weekly advance. Small caps had the best week of any index, with the Russell 2000 up +1.9% as rate-cut probabilities rose.

Below the surface, the tone shifted mid-week. Cisco’s -8.4% post-earnings drop on Wednesday and Applied Materials’ -5.1% slide on Friday hinted at a market that’s starting to interrogate AI margins even as the top line grows. Small caps and cyclicals outperformed on Wednesday and Thursday as the softer inflation data pulled forward September rate-cut odds — CME FedWatch now shows a 62% probability of a 25bp cut at the September meeting, up from 47% a week ago. But Friday’s retail sales -0.6% miss and Fed hawkish commentary from three regional presidents pushed those odds back down to 55% by the close. The setup into Jackson Hole (Thu–Sat next week) is that both bulls and bears now have real evidence to point to.

• Jane Street’s $15 Billion July

Together with Waldo

Welcome to your new week.

Payrolls went negative on Friday, which turns Wednesday's CPI print into the single most important number of the month — and two AI infrastructure names report on either side of it.

Key Earnings Announcements:

The earnings roll on with roughly 300 companies set to report this week.

Monday (8/10): AST SpaceMobile, Barrick Mining, Berkshire Hathaway, Bitdeer Technologies, CEVA, Embraer, GoPro, Hims & Hers Health, Monday.com, Plug Power, Quantum Computing, Rocket Lab

Tuesday (8/11): American Integrity Insurance, Cardinal Health, CAVA Group, CoreWeave, Lumentum Holdings, Middleby, On Holding, Sea Limited, Super Micro Computer, Tencent Music Entertainment

Wednesday (8/12): Allogene Therapeutics, Amcor, Arcos Dorados, Beta Technologies, Brinker International, Cerebras Systems, Cisco Systems, Coherent, Liquidia, Nebius Group

Thursday (8/13): Applied Industrial Technologies, Applied Materials, ARS Pharmaceuticals, Figure Technologies, Globant, Intuitive Machines, JD.com, The Metals Company

Friday (8/14): Adecoagro, Agora, Credicorp, Gemini Space Station, LanzaTech, NET Power, Outlook Therapeutics, PAVmed, RLX Technology, Teamshares, The AES Corporation

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What We’re Watching:

1. Applied Materials (AMAT)

Applied Materials (+109.8% YTD) reports Q3 2026 earnings Thursday after the close, with investors focused on whether the fastest revenue growth in the company's recent history can justify a stock that has more than doubled in seven months. Shares closed Friday at $539.14, giving Applied a $428.1 billion market cap, and the print lands with the stock roughly 25% below the $723.00 all-time closing high it set on June 30. Options are pricing an 8.3% move against a 6.1% average on recent reports.

Last quarter, Applied delivered record revenue of $7.91 billion, up 11% year over year, with GAAP gross margin of 49.9% — its highest in more than 25 years — and record GAAP EPS of $3.51, up 33%. Semiconductor Systems revenue hit $5.97 billion and Applied Global Services grew 17% to $1.67 billion. Management guided Q3 to roughly $8.95 billion give or take $500 million and raised its full-year outlook, saying the semiconductor equipment business would grow more than 30% in calendar 2026.

This quarter, the focus will be on whether that 30% number holds and whether the DRAM and advanced packaging ramp is as durable as management says. Applied expects packaging revenue to grow more than 50% this calendar year and has told investors that leading-edge foundry logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging will account for more than 80% of the year-over-year growth in total wafer fab equipment spending in 2026. Consensus calls for $9.0 billion in revenue, which would be 23% growth — the fastest in years — so the bar is no longer low. China is the honest risk: management expects that business to be flat to slightly higher, and it was 24% of Semiconductor Systems plus services revenue last quarter.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Stock Performance, 5-Year Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect $3.45 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $9.0 billion.

• You can explore the most recent AMAT investor release here and here.

2. CoreWeave (CRWV)

CoreWeave (+26.6% YTD) reports Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday after the close, and the setup is unusual: revenue is compounding faster than almost any company in the market and the stock still sits 50.6% below its June 2025 high of $183.58. Shares closed Friday at $90.67 for a $49.5 billion market cap. Options are pricing a 12.6% move, and CoreWeave has averaged a 16.8% swing on its reports — it has fallen the day after every single print since going public, including an 11.4% drop in May.

Last quarter, CoreWeave delivered $2.078 billion in revenue, up 112% year over year and 32% sequentially, signed more than $40 billion in new customer commitments, and pushed contracted revenue backlog to $99.4 billion — up nearly 50% in a single quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion at a 56% margin. But the net loss widened to $740 million from $315 million, GAAP EPS came in at a loss of $1.40 against a $0.89 estimate, and Q2 guidance of $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion landed below the $2.69 billion the Street wanted. The stock fell 11.4% the next day.

This quarter, the focus will be on capital intensity and whether margins have actually bottomed. CoreWeave is guiding to $31 billion to $35 billion in 2026 capital expenditures against $12 billion to $13 billion in revenue, which means the backlog only matters if the financing holds and the data centers come online on schedule. Management has said Q1 was the low point for operating margin and has raised the minimum 2026 annualized run-rate target to $18 billion with more than 75% of a $30 billion-plus 2027 target already contracted. Watch delivery timing, power coming online, and the share of backlog tied to non-investment-grade AI customers, which management put below 30% last quarter.

Coreweave, Inc. (CRWV) Stock Performance, All-Time Chart, Seeking Alpha

• Analysts expect -$1.45 GAAP EPS on Revenue of $2.6 billion.

• You can explore the most recent CRWV investor release here and here.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

Institutional managers must reveal their June 30 positions by Friday's 13F deadline, Google raises Pixel prices because of a memory shortage, and the FDA decides on a first-in-class Alzheimer's imaging agent.

• 13F Deadline Reveals Wall Street's June 30 Positions

Q2 2026 price returns versus returns since June 30. Source: Perplexity Finance

Friday is the deadline for institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in U.S. equities to file Form 13F and disclose what they owned as of June 30. Every hedge fund, pension, endowment, and family office above that threshold has to show its hand at the same time, and the filings pour into the SEC's EDGAR system between Thursday afternoon and Friday's 5:30 p.m. ET cutoff.

Analysts have Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Corning (GLW) as some of the stocks to watch for notable portfolio shifts. Last quarter's filings gave us Berkshire Hathaway lifting its Alphabet stake more than 200% to roughly $15.6 billion, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square building a $2.1 billion Microsoft position while cutting Google 95%, and Nvidia itself raising its CoreWeave stake 94.5% to 47.21 million shares worth $3.657 billion.

Here is the catch, and it is a big one this quarter. A 13F is a photograph of June 30 developed 45 days later, and July was the month the AI trade broke. Corning rose 87.9% in the second quarter and has fallen 35.1% since. Tesla gained 13.1% and has dropped 21.9%. Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness went from a 439% first-half return to a 67% July loss and a forced sale of roughly $16 billion in public equities to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Friday's filings will show you exactly how crowded those trades were right before they unwound. That is useful history. Just do not mistake it for what anyone owns today.

• Google Raises Pixel Prices On A RAM Crisis

The Google Pixel 9 Pro XL. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Google's "Made by Google" event returns to New York Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. ET, where the company is expected to unveil the Pixel 11, Pixel 11 Pro, Pixel 11 Pro XL, Pixel 11 Pro Fold, and a Pixel Watch 5, all built on a next-generation Tensor G6 chip made on a 2-nanometer process. The unusual part is that Google has already told everyone prices are going up before saying what they will be.

Leaks point to roughly $100 increases across most of the lineup, with the base Pixel 11 moving from $799 to around $899 and the Pro Fold pushing toward $1,899 to $2,150, partly offset by base storage doubling from 128GB to 256GB. Google has blamed a supplier-driven memory shortage and pointed to Morgan Stanley data showing the cost of 1GB of RAM climbing from $2.80 in 2025 to $12 in 2026. Retail availability is expected around August 20.

This is a bigger story than one phone line. Memory pricing is now a direct input into consumer hardware margins across the industry, and Google is the first major manufacturer to say so out loud and raise prices ahead of the fall launch cycle. Watch the actual preorder pricing Wednesday night, whether Google offsets it with trade-in or Google One bundles, and how Samsung and Apple respond. If a company that sells silicon-adjacent hardware at scale cannot absorb this, the read-through to every device maker heading into the holidays is not good.

• Lantheus Faces An Alzheimer's FDA Decision

Tau PET imaging comparing cognitively normal and cognitively impaired brains. Source: The Jagust Lab, UC Berkeley

The FDA's target action date for Lantheus Holdings' New Drug Application for MK-6240 lands Thursday. MK-6240, or florquinitau F-18, is a first-in-class F18-labeled PET imaging agent built to visualize tau neurofibrillary tangles — one of the two defining hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease — in patients being evaluated for cognitive impairment. The FDA accepted the application on October 28, 2025 after granting Fast Track designation.

The filing rests on two pivotal Phase 3 trials that hit co-primary endpoints for both sensitivity and specificity in detecting tau pathology. Lantheus picked up the asset in a February 2023 acquisition of Cerveau Technologies and says MK-6240 is already the most widely used tau imaging agent across 17 pharmaceutical-sponsored Alzheimer's programs. Independent tracker BiopharmaWatch puts the probability of approval at 87.5%. Shares sit near $101 heading in, down roughly 8% over the trailing 30 days.

The commercial logic is straightforward. More than 100 disease-modifying Alzheimer's therapies are in development, roughly 30 of them targeting tau directly, and every one of those programs needs a way to select and monitor patients. Approval would make MK-6240 a companion diagnostic that complements the beta-amyloid PET imaging already in use, which is a recurring-revenue business rather than a one-time drug launch. Watch for the FDA action Thursday or shortly after, and for launch timing and reimbursement commentary on the next Lantheus call.

Major Economic Events:

July CPI Wednesday and July retail sales Friday.

Monday (8/10): CB Employment Trends Index, 3-month and 6-month Treasury bill auctions

Tuesday (8/11): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Weekly ADP employment change, Redbook retail sales, Existing home sales, Total household debt, 6-week bill auction, 3-year note auction, API crude oil stocks

Wednesday (8/12): MBA mortgage applications, July Consumer Price Index, Monthly Treasury budget statement, EIA petroleum inventories, 17-week bill auction, USDA WASDE report, 10-year note auction

Thursday (8/13): Initial jobless claims, Continuing claims, July Producer Price Index, EIA natural gas storage, 4-week and 8-week bill auctions, 30-year bond auction, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks

Friday (8/14): July retail sales, Business inventories, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), Retail inventories, Baker Hughes rig count

What We’re Watching:

1. July Consumer Price Index

Friday changed what this print means. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against a consensus of +80,000, May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the three-month average job gain is now just 20,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, but only because 264,000 people left the labor force and participation fell to 61.4%, a near five-and-a-half-year low. Average hourly earnings rose 2 cents to $37.62, taking annual wage growth to 3.2% — a five-year low that now runs below inflation.

That reframes Wednesday entirely. June CPI came in at 3.5% headline and 2.6% core, both undershooting badly, with the headline falling 0.4% month over month on a 9.7% drop in gasoline. Consensus for July is +0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year on the headline, with core at +0.2% and 2.5%. Pantheon Macroeconomics expects core goods to rise 0.18%, the biggest monthly gain since September, partly because Apple raised hardware prices 15% to 30% effective June 25, offset by airline fares down 1.5% and hotel prices down 1.0%.

The July 29 FOMC held at 3.50% to 3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan all dissenting in favor of an immediate hike. After Friday, CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell from roughly 55% to about 42%, with hold odds near 58%. A hot core print revives the hawks and hands Hammack a live argument to make on Thursday. A soft one confirms the labor market is cracking faster than inflation is falling, and puts a genuinely awkward question in front of Chair Kevin Warsh three days before he loses another month of data.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Headline CPI: +0.1% MoM expected vs. -0.4% prior

• Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY expected vs. 3.5% prior

• Core CPI: +0.2% MoM expected vs. 0.0% prior

• Core CPI: 2.5% YoY expected vs. 2.6% prior

2. July Retail Sales 

Retail sales is the last hard read on the consumer before the September 16 FOMC, and it arrives two days after CPI and one day after PPI in an unusually dense back half of the week. June's report was steady but unremarkable: headline up 0.2%, ex-autos down 0.2%, ex-autos and gas up 0.4%, and the control group up 0.5%. The soft spot was gasoline stations, where spending fell alongside pump prices, while the rest of the basket held.

Consensus for July is +0.2% on the headline, +0.2% ex-autos, and +0.3% on the control group, with year-over-year growth cooling to 6.0% from 6.7%. The Chicago Fed's advance retail trade indicator points to +0.1% ex-autos and essentially flat in inflation-adjusted terms, which is the more useful framing: nominal spending that only keeps pace with prices is not a growing consumer.

The setup matters more than the number. If retail sales come in soft alongside a benign CPI, the case for a September hold gets close to airtight and the conversation shifts to whether the Fed is already behind on the labor side. If the consumer holds up while hiring stalls, the hawks keep their argument that above-target inflation demands tightening and the September meeting stays genuinely contested. Watch the control group, which feeds directly into GDP, and watch whether the wage slowdown to 3.2% is starting to show up in what people actually spend.

Economists expect the following this week:

• Headline retail sales: +0.2% MoM expected vs. +0.2% prior

• Retail sales: 6.0% YoY expected vs. 6.7% prior

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment: 54.6 expected vs. 55.2 prior

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👉 Week in Review — Too Long; Didn’t Read:

Key Earnings Announcements:

• AMD delivered record revenue as Data Center segment doubled.

• Sandisk locked in eight long-term deals that cover more than half of 2027 supply.

• Palantir closed 220 commercial deals worth over $1.0 million during the quarter.

Investor Events / Global Affairs:

• The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high of 7,757.

• SpaceX’s $123 billion insider lockup released.

• Situational Awareness returned to investing with a $400 million private bet.

Economic Updates:

• July payrolls fell 23,000 — the biggest jobs miss in more than two years.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 in July, a four-year high.

👉 Portfolio Update

The portfolio continues to trend up and to the right (+18% YTD, outperforming VOO by +4%), led higher by the “Long Risky” subsection. That subsection is beginning to come back down to reality after names like ARM Holdings (ARM) and Bloom Energy (BE) cool off after +300-400% YTD gains during the summer.

I remain encouraged by names in the “Long Risky” subsection like Nebius, Oscar Health, and Astera Labs up +100% plus YTD — offsetting names like ON Holdings and Tempus AI lagging the markets.

The “Long Technology” subsection continues to trend up and to the right as Big Tech spends money like it’s going out of style. Looking toward the next couple of quarters, I remain excited about opening and adding to my SpaceX and Cerebras positions as I believe inference is going to become more and more important + Starlink itself is trending toward being a $1T+ company before 2029.

The “Dividend Growth Stocks” subsection is lagging the S&P 500 slightly despite names like UnitedHealth Group and Coca-Cola both up +30% YTD. I remain a shareholder in NEOS Funds, as they pay me several hundred dollars per month.

👉 Best and Worst ETF Performers of the Week

Click here to learn more from ETF Central.

The Companies Behind AI’s Rise

You do not have to guess which AI model wins to invest in the AI boom.

Every large language model needs a massive amount of specialized technology to keep running, scaling, and improving.

That means advanced memory, data storage, high-speed networking, semiconductor manufacturing, power systems, and cooling infrastructure.

MarketBeat’s new The Infrastructure’s Backbone: 10 Stocks Powering the AI Buildout report reveals 10 publicly traded companies positioned across the AI infrastructure stack.

These are the companies helping supply the technology AI providers need to keep growing.

The report normally sells for $29.97, but it is available free today.

See The 10 Stocks

👉 Key Earnings Announcements:

AMD delivered record revenue as Data Center segment doubled, Sandisk locked in eight long-term deals that cover more than half of 2027 supply, and Palantir closed 220 commercial deals worth over $1.0 million during the quarter.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $11.5 billion, an increase of +50% YoY

Operating Income: $2.0 billion, compared to -$134.0 million last year

Profits: $2.3 billion, an increase of +163% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

“We delivered an excellent quarter, with record revenue and profitability as Data Center revenue more than doubled year-over-year. We enter the second half with strong momentum as EPYC demand accelerates, Instinct deployments scale and Helios begins to ramp."

My Takeaway

• SanDisk (SNDK)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $9.0 billion, an increase of +372% YoY

Operating Income: $7.0 billion, compared to $18.0 million last year

Profits: $6.9 billion, compared to -$23.0 million last year

Earnings Release Callout

"We closed fiscal 2026 with a leading technology portfolio, established datacenter as a key growth pillar, and deepened our customer partnerships. Our technology and products are well positioned to create value for our customers and generate growing and durable free cash flow."

My Takeaway

• Palantir (PLTR)

Key Metrics

Revenue: $1.9 billion, an increase of +93% YoY

Operating Income: $912.0 million, an increase of +239% YoY

Profits: $1.1 billion, an increase of +224% YoY

Earnings Release Callout

"Demand for AI sovereignty has now been unleashed. And Palantir is the only company that has demonstrated it can transform tokens into actual economic value. Our customers trust us to provide them with maximal control over their operations, data, and decisions... This quarter was otherworldly: our U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year, our overall revenue grew 93% year-over-year, and our Rule of 40 score climbed to 155%."

My Takeaway

👉 Investor Events / Global Affairs:

The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high, SpaceX’s $123 billion insider lockup released, and Situational Awareness returned to investing with a $400 million private bet.

• S&P 500 Hits Fresh All-Time High

Wall Street closed the week with the tape at record highs across the board. The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,757.64 — its 25th record close of the year and the first since early June — while the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 54,000 for the first time in history and closed at 54,349.12 on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.59% on Tuesday alone (its best session in months) to close near 26,585 and sit within striking distance of its own June peak. The total market cap of the S&P 500 crossed $70 trillion for the first time.

The rally was driven by the combination that’s defined the summer: strong AI-adjacent earnings (Palantir +29%, Caterpillar +5%, AMD’s beat) and cooling geopolitical risk premiums as reports emerged of progress on a Middle East ceasefire. Second-quarter earnings are now on pace to grow +29% year-over-year — running well ahead of the +13% consensus that started reporting season — and forward EPS estimates are being revised higher at what Bloomberg called “a stunning clip.” This is the first time since the Fed pivot in 2024 that the S&P has printed a new high on the back of earnings acceleration rather than multiple expansion

• SpaceX’s $123 Billion Lockup Cliff