MarketMunch

📉 Massive Fed Day

Pip Munch — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:04:00 +0000

7 Dividend Payers Also Buying Back Their Own Stocks

One restarted repurchases with $3.5 billion in the first half of 2026 after buying back nothing the year before. Another has worked through 34% of a $5 billion authorization. A third just funded a $500 million program. The 6% to 11% yields are only part of the cash coming back.

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☕️ GM Munchers! I'm on a cruise, surrounded by ocean, sunshine, and endless food, and yet here I am typing about the Fed. At this point it's not a hobby, it's a diagnosis.

On today’s menu:

📅 The Fed Is About To Do Something It Hasn't All Year
⚖️ Crypto's Big Day In Washington Turned Into A Bloodbath
📉 The Scariest Number In Finance Just Hit 5%
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
💰️ Grab Our Free Stock of The eek

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,585	-0.45%
Nasdaq	25,981	-0.78%
Dow Jones	52,092	-0.63%
Bitcoin	~$76,170	-2.55%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 The Fed Is About To Do Something It Hasn't All Year

Today is one of the biggest days of the year for the stock market.Markets now price in a 90% chance the Fed raises interest rates at 2:00 p.m. ET today. That would be the first rate hike of 2026, and it flips the entire narrative on its head. Rewind to January, and the market was fully expecting the Fed to cut rates this year to help a slowing economy. Instead, we're staring down a hike. That's about as big a switch in expectations as it gets.

What changed? Two words: oil and inflation. The Iran war has once again pushed crude back above $100, diesel is sitting at a record high of $6 a gallon, and your grocery bill has already told you that inflation is refusing to chill.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it clear that taming inflation is his top priority, even if it means tightening into a shaky economy. A hike would lift the target range to 3.75% to 4%.

📊 The number that matters: A quarter-point hike is 90% priced in, so the real market move will come from Warsh's press conference and what he signals about October.
🔀 Watch for the surprise: Since a hike is basically expected, a "dovish hike," meaning he hints this is a one-and-done, could actually rally stocks even as rates rise.
⚠️ The risk is the tone: If Warsh signals more hikes are coming, expect stocks to drop aggressively and yields to climb further.

The Munch Take: A rate hike this afternoon is almost fully baked in, so don't trade the decision itself. Instead, watch the tone. What Warsh says about what comes next matters far more than the hike everyone already sees coming. Here's our standing position: if this spooks stocks and drags quality names lower, good. Rates always come back down eventually, and we'd rather build our shopping list than panic. Big day ahead, so stay calm and watch that 2:00 p.m. press conference closely.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

⚖️ Crypto's Big Day In Washington Turned Into A Bloodbath

Crypto got dealt a real blow yesterday. The CLARITY Act, the bill meant to finally give crypto clear federal rules, failed to clear a key procedural vote in the Senate. It needed 60 votes just to move forward to debate, and Republicans and Democrats couldn't bridge the gap on ethics language tied to Trump's own crypto ventures. The reaction was instant: over $300 million in bullish crypto bets got liquidated in just 20 minutes, and Bitcoin slid to around $76,000.

Here's why this stung so much. Traders had been betting for months that clearer rules would open the floodgates for big institutional money. When that hope died, the leveraged bulls who were positioned for good news got wiped out fast, and that forced selling snowballed into a sharp drop. Prediction markets now put the odds of the bill passing in 2026 at just 14%, down from 30% a day earlier.

🗳️ The math was always tough: Republicans hold 53 seats and needed 7 Democrats, but the unresolved ethics fight over Trump's crypto profits sank the deal.
⏰ The calendar is brutal: With midterms looming, this failure likely pushes any real crypto legislation to 2027 or later.
🎰 The timing got worse: This hit just one day before the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, stacking two major risk events back to back.

The Munch Take: We've said all along that betting on Washington deadlines is a losing game, and this is exactly why. Clear rules would genuinely help crypto long term, but the disappointment here is a political story, not a Bitcoin story. Nothing about Bitcoin's fixed supply changed yesterday. We're still bullish, still holding, and we're not rattled by a Senate vote falling short. If leveraged traders getting flushed out drags Bitcoin lower into the Fed meeting, that's a discount, not a disaster. Same thesis, same patience.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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🎮 $PLAY Dave & Buster's tumbled 19.01% after posting a surprise quarterly loss nobody saw coming. When an arcade chain runs out of quarters, investors head straight for the exit.

🍽️ $SYY Sysco slipped 4.72% after pricing a $1 billion stock offering. New shares mean existing owners get a slightly smaller slice, and the market rarely claps for that.

🏥 $WAY Waystar rallied 7.11% on reports it's exploring a sale that could take the healthcare software company private. Nothing gets a stock moving like the whiff of a buyout.

🚚 $RLGT Radiant Logistics soared 19.49% after crushing both earnings and revenue expectations. A clean beat from a smaller name is exactly the kind of surprise that sends shares flying.

NEWS OF THE DAY

📈 The 10-Year Yield Just Hit 5% For The First Time Since 2007

Here's a number that quietly touches almost everyone's wallet. The 10-year Treasury yield just crossed 5% for the first time since 2007, back before the last financial crisis. That yield is basically the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years, and it's one of the most important numbers in all of finance. When it moves, borrowing costs across the whole economy move with it.

Why is this happening? A pile-up of bad news all at once. Expensive oil, hot inflation, and a government that keeps borrowing more and more. All of that makes investors demand a higher return to lend to Uncle Sam, which pushes yields up. The 10-year started this year around 4.15%, so this is a big jump in a short time.

🏠 Mortgages track this closely: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate just climbed to around 7.17%, since home loans follow the 10-year yield far more than they follow the Fed's rate.
🚗 It's not just houses: Car loans, credit cards, and business borrowing all get more expensive as this yield climbs.
📉 Stocks feel it too: When “safe” government bonds pay 5%, investors have less reason to take risks on stocks, which pressures the whole market.

The Munch Take: Yes, this is a big deal, but not a reason to panic. A 5% yield makes buying a home or a car noticeably pricier, and that pain is real for regular people right now. Here's the flip side, though: those same 5% Treasuries are the best guaranteed return we've seen in nearly two decades. If you've got cash sitting idle, safe bonds are suddenly paying you actual money to wait. High rates hurt borrowers and reward savers. Just know which side of that trade you're on.

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📉 Wall Street Panics Over AI

Pip Munch — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:03:00 +0000

Five Stocks Under $5. One Is A $3 Defense-AI Name.

Five stocks cleared every filter in our free report — including a defense-focused AI decision-intelligence company trading near $3. Its $269.6 million backlog includes a $53 million sole-source classified award, and $409.8 million in cash and investments could fund roughly four years at the current burn rate. Four more sub-$5 names come with it.

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☕️ GM Munchers! Did you miss me yesterday? I'm still on the cruise, where the wifi costs roughly one human kidney per megabyte. I did the math, weighed my options, and sold the kidney. My wife doesn't know yet, so please enjoy this email like your life depends on it, because financially, mine now does.

On today’s menu:

🤖 The AI Bosses Said Slow Down & Wall Street Panicked
⛽ Your Gas Bill Is About To Get Ugly Again
💻 Hunter Biden's Meme Coin Went From $190 To Zero
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🤯 This Stock Chart Is Insane

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,619	-0.48%
Nasdaq	26,168	-0.56%
Dow Jones	52,421	-0.29%
Bitcoin	~$77,940	-0.29%

BREAKING NEWS

🤖 The AI Bosses Said Slow Down, And Wall Street Panicked

Here's something you don't see every day. Over the weekend, the heads of the biggest AI companies, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman, and Elon Musk, all agreed on one thing: AI is improving too fast for safety researchers to keep up, and the industry should tap the brakes. When the people building the rocket start talking about slowing it down, the market listens.

And listen it did. Investors took "slow down AI" to mean less spending on the chips and servers that power it, so anything tied to that buildout got hammered. But the exact same fear made cybersecurity stocks soar, since a world of more dangerous AI means more demand for digital protection. Wall Street basically sold the shovels and bought the security guards.

📉 Chips took the hit: Micron, Intel, and Marvell each dropped more than 4%, Nvidia fell about 3%, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise cratered around 11%.
🛡️ Security stocks ripped: CrowdStrike jumped nearly 15% to about $237, its best day in years, with Zscaler and Palo Alto Networks rallying alongside it.
🇺🇸 Trump called it overblown: The President dismissed the slowdown idea as unnecessary, warning it would hand America's AI lead straight to China.

The Munch Take: One weekend of cautious talk from AI bosses does not end the AI boom. Notice what they actually said: pace it, not stop it. Nobody is canceling data centers or cutting spending yet. This looks more like a sentiment scare than a real change, and those are exactly the wobbles we like to shop during. If quality chip names get marked down on fear, we'd rather build a list than run for the hills. Long term, nothing is stopping this technology.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

⛽ Your Gas Bill Is About To Get Ugly Again

Here's a story that hits your driveway before it hits your portfolio. Oil stayed stubbornly in triple-digit territory yesterday after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline stayed shut, knocked offline by a drone attack last week. That pipeline is a big deal. It's how Saudi oil normally reaches the world without passing through the blocked-off Strait of Hormuz. With it down, one of the last escape valves for Middle East oil is basically sealed shut.

Brent crude touched nearly $110 during the day before settling around $105.68. The pain didn't stop at crude, either. U.S. diesel prices crossed $6 a gallon for the first time ever, a record, and that matters to everyone because diesel moves the trucks that carry nearly everything you buy. When diesel jumps, grocery and shipping costs quietly climb right behind it.

📈 Yields hit a scary milestone: The 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% for the first time since 2023, driven by all this fresh inflation fear.
🛢️ The pipeline has no restart date: Saudi Arabia hasn't said when it'll reopen, and its backup export port only holds about a week of inventory.
🏦 The Fed is boxed in: With oil reigniting inflation, markets now widely expect the Fed to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting.

The Munch Take: This is the frustrating kind of inflation, the sort nobody can control. The Fed can hike rates all it wants, but it can't repair a bombed pipeline or reopen a blocked strait. Until that oil starts flowing again, expect pain at the pump and jumpy markets. Keep your shopping list ready for Wednesday, because a rate hike into $100 oil could shake things loose fast.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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🖥️ $MSFT Microsoft rose 1.97% after releasing a proposed code of conduct laying out safety guardrails for how it builds and runs its AI models. Microsoft got ahead of the conversation at the perfect moment.

☁️ $RUM Rumble surged 11.58% on reports that Anthropic struck a $13.7 billion deal to buy computing power from the cloud company. A mega-deal with one of the biggest names in AI is exactly the kind of validation this stock needed.

💳 $AFRM Affirm climbed 2.72% after Wolfe Research upgraded it to Outperform, calling the recent 18% selloff in the last year a buying opportunity. Sometimes all it takes is one analyst willing to call the bottom.

🏦 $BAC Bank of America fell 5.12% after CEO Brian Moynihan warned that third-quarter trading revenue would come in roughly flat from a year ago. Flat is a dirty word on Wall Street when investors are paying up for growth.

🎮 $RBLX Roblox jumped 12.73% after showing off new features and AI creator tools at its annual developer conference. Giving its army of creators better toys tends to pay off, and investors clearly agree.

NEWS OF THE DAY

💻 Hunter Biden's Meme Coin Went From $190 To Basically Zero

Hunter Biden launched a crypto meme coin yesterday called $LAPTOP, a wink at the infamous laptop scandal that followed him for years. He pitched it as "reclaiming" the symbol. What actually happened was a bloodbath. The coin opened trading above $190, then face-planted more than 98% within the first hour, crashing to around $2. If you had put $1,000 in at the top, you'd be staring at roughly $10 now.

Here's the mechanics of why these things detonate. A meme coin has zero underlying business, no product, no revenue, nothing. Its price is pure hype. Early insiders and the founders load up cheap before launch, the hype pulls in retail buyers at the top, and then the insiders dump into that demand. The price collapses, and the regular people holding the bag eat the loss. It's musical chairs where most players never had a chair.

🪑 The founders got theirs for free: Hunter and the other founders hold 30% of the supply at zero cost, so even after the crash, anything they eventually sell is pure profit, while buyers lost real money they paid in.
🎭 The scam attracts more scams: At least 14 fake copycat $LAPTOP coins appeared across other networks within an hour, racking up $6.9 million in trading volume off the confusion.
🏛️ Politicians keep doing this: Trump and Melania launched their own meme coins in 2025 and reaped about $1 billion combined, while most investors who bought lost money.

The Munch Take: This is exactly why crypto gets a bad name, and it's frustrating for those of us who actually believe in the real stuff. Bitcoin has a fixed supply and a genuine thesis. A politician's laptop meme coin is a cash grab dressed up as a movement, and everyday buyers are the ones who get fleeced every single time. Hunter walks away holding 30% of the supply. The people who bought his story walk away with pennies. Don't confuse the casino for the asset. They just happen to share a parking lot.

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📉 2:59 PM Friday. Make this trade.

Pip Munch — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:03:00 +0000

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☕️ GM Munchers! I'm boarding a cruise today, which my wife insists is for "relaxing." As I warned you back at the cottage, relaxing is not a skill I possess, so you'll still be hearing from me between buffet trips.

On today’s menu:

📉 Inflation Just Killed The Rate Cut
🍟 McDonald's Just Hit A Two-Year Low
🍎 The Market Likes Apple’s Flip Phone
💵 Trump Promised You $5,000, But There's A Catch
👀 Insider Buy Alert

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,591	-0.58%
Nasdaq	26,081	-0.65%
Dow Jones	52,064	-0.60%
Bitcoin	~$77,250	-1.30%

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Inflation Just Killed The Rate Cut

The big number yesterday was PPI, the Producer Price Index, which tracks the prices businesses pay before those costs reach you at the store. It came in at 5.4% year over year, hotter than the 5.3% expected and a jump from 4.8% the month before. In plain terms, inflation is running warm at the wholesale level, and that tends to trickle down into consumer prices with a lag.

The culprit was energy. Diesel fuel alone spiked 24.1% in a single month, driven by the ongoing Iran conflict. That fed straight into oil, with Brent crude surging about 5% to $108 a barrel, its highest level since May. Higher energy costs make inflation stickier, which is exactly what the Fed doesn't want to see right now.

🎯 The rate-hike odds jumped: Prediction markets now show roughly a 66% chance the Fed raises rates by a quarter point at its September 15-16 meeting, flipping what was a coin flip just days ago.
📊 Friday's CPI is the real decider: Today's Consumer Price Index report matters even more than PPI, since it measures what you actually pay and could cement or cancel the hike.
⚡ Volatility clusters before the decision: Expect the biggest swings early next week as the meeting nears, since the closer the odds sit to 50/50, the wilder the reaction when the answer finally lands.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest position, same as always. If this fear crashes stocks, good. We'll treat it as a discount rack. The reality is simple: rates will come down eventually, whether that's next year, the year after, or the one after that. Nobody knows the exact timing, and nobody needs to. Any high-quality company that gets unfairly marked down because of short-term rate panic is exactly what we want to be buying. Most of the volatility hits early next week before the meeting, so keep your shopping list ready and your nerves steady.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🍟 McDonald's Just Hit A Two-Year Low, And We're Paying Attention

$MCD McDonald's slid to its lowest price in more than two years, and it's now down about 16.5% year to date, badly trailing the S&P 500. For a company most people think of as recession-proof, that's a genuinely rough stretch. So what's eating the Golden Arches?

It comes down to traffic. U.S. foot traffic fell 4.6% in the second quarter, with May being the single worst month. Same-store sales barely budged at 0.8%, a multi-year low versus the fast-food competition. The culprits are familiar: customers are tired of high fast-food prices, lower-income diners are pulling back hard, and weight-loss drugs are quietly nibbling at demand. Even a splashy new drinks lineup aimed at Gen Z hasn't moved the needle. CEO Chris Kempczinski insists "we don't have a strategy problem," blaming execution instead.

💰 The valuation is genuinely cheap now: McDonald's trades at its lowest forward P/E in over a decade, meaning you're paying less for its earnings than at almost any point in ten years.
👑 The dividend is a fortress: McDonald's has raised its dividend for nearly 50 straight years, a streak that makes it a "Dividend Aristocrat" and rewards patient holders while they wait.
🌍 Global is still growing: International sales rose while the U.S. struggled, proving the brand's global machine isn't the problem, just its home market.

The Munch Take: We love this brand. Genuinely, nothing beats a $1 morning coffee, and a world-class business trading at a decade-low valuation with a bulletproof dividend is exactly the kind of setup that gets our attention. Here's our honest read, though: this is closer to a buy than most names we cover, but the traffic bleed needs to actually stop first. September has an investor event where management lays out its turnaround plan. We'd want to see real signs the U.S. business is stabilizing before backing up the truck. Great company on sale, but catch it once it stops falling, not while it's still sliding.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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🍎 $AAPL Apple climbed 3.56% after finally showing off its long-awaited foldable iPhone Duo. Investors liked the reveal, even if Samsung got there seven years ago.

🚀 $SPCX SpaceX ticked up 0.43% ahead of a planned launch carrying a classified payload for the U.S. Space Force. Government contracts are exactly the kind of steady, high-trust business that keeps this stock grounded.

☁️ $ORCL Oracle fell 5.38% as investors got nervous ahead of its earnings report. Selling before the numbers drop usually says the crowd is bracing for something they won't like.

💻 $INTC Intel dropped 5.57% after Piper Sandler slapped a Neutral rating on it, arguing the stock got ahead of itself after a hot run. Even a good comeback story needs a breather when the price runs too far, too fast.

🧬 $BHVN Biohaven sank 14.76% after the FDA partially halted testing of its experimental epilepsy drug over a possible safety issue. Nothing spooks a biotech faster than regulators hitting pause on the very thing driving the stock.

NEWS OF THE DAY

💵 Trump Promised You $5,000, But There's A Catch

Well, we've officially reached the part of the movie where politicians stop even pretending. At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday night, Trump promised a $5,000 "dividend" to every adult American citizen, but only if Republicans win both the House and the Senate in November. His exact words: "If the Republicans win, you win with us, and you get $5,000."

Let's break down why this is a mess. First, the cost. The U.S. has roughly 240 million adult citizens, which puts the price tag around $1.2 trillion. For context, the entire federal deficit in 2025 was about $1.8 trillion. Adding another trillion-plus without cutting spending or raising revenue would blow a fresh hole in the budget and, more importantly for your wallet, likely fuel more inflation. Handing everyone a check sounds great until everyone bids up the same goods with that check, and prices simply rise to swallow it.

⚖️ This might actually be illegal: Legal experts pointed out that offering money in exchange for a voting outcome can run afoul of federal vote-buying laws, which carry real prison time.
🔁 We've seen this movie before: Trump floated a "DOGE dividend" and a $2,000 "tariff rebate" earlier, and neither one ever actually reached anyone's bank account.
💰 Even his own VP walked it back: Within an hour, JD Vance suggested the wealthy wouldn't qualify and floated funding it with tariff revenue, which quietly shrinks the whole promise.

The Munch Take: The odds of this actually happening are slim, and honestly, we're not sure it should. Free money sounds wonderful right up until you remember someone has to print it, and printed money is exactly how you get more inflation, the very thing quietly eating everyone's paycheck already. Dangling a check in front of voters weeks before an election isn't an economic policy. It's a sales pitch. Enjoy the fantasy, but don't spend that $5,000 in your head just yet.

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📉 Apple Finally Made A Foldable

Pip Munch — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:06:00 +0000

Anthropic Filed Confidentially. October Is The Window.

Anthropic has confidentially filed for an IPO, with expectations to list as early as October 2026. A public S-1 typically precedes pricing by four to six weeks — so the decision window opens before most investors have done any work. Our free report screened 232 listings and the 2026 pipeline down to seven names, with valuations, catalysts and lockup dates on each.

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☕️ GM Munchers! Happy Little Friday. It's the participation trophy of weekdays, not quite the weekend, but close enough that I'm allowing myself an extra coffee and a little optimism.

On today’s menu:

📱 Apple Finally Made A Foldable
📅 Trump Says Cheap Gas Is Coming
💻 Hunter Biden's Meme Coin Disaster
🤖 Meta Launches A Personal AI Agent
😂 $10 Million House In Iowa Vs Palo Alto

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,636	-0.48%
Nasdaq	26,253	-0.64%
Dow Jones	52,380	-0.77%
Bitcoin	~$78,250	-0.25%

BREAKING NEWS

📱 Apple Finally Made A Foldable, Seven Years After Samsung

Apple unveiled its first-ever foldable phone yesterday at its "Surprise and Shine" event, the debut keynote for new CEO John Ternus and absolutely nothing was surprising about it. They launched the iPhone Duo. Closed, it's a normal-sized 5.4-inch phone. Open it up and you get a 7.6-inch screen, the largest display ever on an iPhone, roughly the size of a small iPad. It starts at $1,999 and lands October 23.

Here's the part Apple won't say out loud. This isn't innovation, it's imitation. Samsung has sold foldable phones since 2019 and still owns roughly 64% of the global foldable market. Apple is showing up seven years late. The extra-awkward twist? The crease-free screen Apple is bragging about is reportedly built on Samsung display technology, meaning Apple's headline feature comes from the very rival it's copying. This is the same pattern we saw with Tim Cook: Apple rarely invents the category, it just waits and polishes.

🏆 Apple's real skill is timing, not inventing: It didn't create the smartphone, smartwatch, or wireless earbuds either, but it made all three mainstream after others went first.
💰 The price protects margins, not customers: At $1,999, Apple matched Samsung's foldable price almost exactly rather than undercutting it, a clear sign this is about profit, not market share.
📈 Investors have been rewarding the playbook anyway: Apple is up 16% year to date, beating the S&P 500's 11.3%, even though the stock slipped 3.5% over the last five days heading into the event.

The Munch Take: Here's the honest read. Apple's foldable is late, expensive, and built partly on a competitor's tech, which is peak "Apple doesn't innovate anymore." And let’s not forget that just a few years ago, you could buy a used car for how much this phone is costing. But here's the thing that keeps working: Apple doesn't need to be first, it needs to be Apple. Its customers have swallowed a 50% jump in average iPhone prices since 2015 and kept buying more phones anyway. We're not chasing the stock up here after a strong run, but writing Apple off for being late has been a losing bet for two decades. Boring, late, and profitable is still profitable.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

📅 Trump Says Cheap Gas Is Coming, Just Not Yet

Here's a strange thing to say out loud. Trump told reporters yesterday that oil and gas prices won't fall until "right after" the November midterm elections, adding that the Iran war would end "immediately after the election" too. Read that twice. The president is essentially saying he knows relief is coming, but it just so happens to line up perfectly with a political calendar rather than any actual battlefield event.

We think that's a bit silly. Either a war ends because of facts on the ground, or it doesn't. Tying the finish line to an election date, roughly two months away, suggests the timing is about politics more than diplomacy. Meanwhile the Iran war is now in its seventh month, closing in on 200 days, with no clear resolution in sight. Oil felt all of that yesterday, with Brent crude topping $101 for the first time since July.

⛽ The pump problem is real: The U.S. has drained its strategic oil reserves below 300 million barrels this year, down over 100 million since January, just to keep prices from climbing even higher.
🗳️ It's a political risk, not just an economic one: Elevated gas prices heading into the midterms are exactly the kind of thing that swings voter mood and, by extension, control of Congress.
📊 Rate-hike odds keep creeping up: Polymarket now shows a 53% chance the Fed hikes rates by a quarter point this month, as climbing oil threatens to reignite inflation.

The Munch Take: Forget the election talk. The only thing that actually matters this week is Friday's CPI inflation report. With oil back over $100, a hot inflation number could seal a Fed rate hike, while a cool one keeps hope alive for a hold. That single data point carries more weight than any campaign-trail prediction about when gas gets cheap. Watch Friday. Everything else is noise until then.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Bonus Report from Stock Earnings: 5 Stocks Hiding Behind the Robot Revolution

🤖 $META Meta climbed 6.55% after launching Muse, its new personal AI agent app. The market is treating every fresh AI product from Meta like a reason to pile back in.

🏦 $CHYM Chime rallied 6.93% on a $590 million deal to buy its longtime partner Stride Bank, a move that turns the fintech into an actual bank. Owning the bank instead of renting it means more control and better margins down the road.

🛡️ $NET Cloudflare surged 10.55% after rolling out a new AI cybersecurity service built on OpenAI's models. The stock is now up 60% this year.

⛽ $CASY Casey's General Stores dropped 14.24% even after beating estimates, because "good" wasn't good enough for a stock priced this richly. When expectations get sky-high, a solid quarter can still disappoint.

🐾 $CHWY Chewy fell 10.83% as shrinking liquidity overshadowed a mixed quarter and a raised full-year outlook. Investors clearly cared more about the cash concerns than the brighter forecast.

📺 $CMCSA Comcast sank 6.61% after warning that its broadband customer losses aren't likely to get better anytime soon. Losing internet subscribers in a competitive market is exactly the kind of slow bleed Wall Street hates.

NEWS OF THE DAY

💻 Hunter Biden's Meme Coin Went From $190 To Basically Zero

🪑 The founders got theirs for free: Hunter and the other founders hold 30% of the supply at zero cost, so even after the crash, anything they eventually sell is pure profit, while buyers lost real money they paid in.
🎭 The scam attracts more scams: At least 14 fake copycat $LAPTOP coins appeared across other networks within an hour, racking up $6.9 million in trading volume off the confusion.
🏛️ Politicians keep doing this: Trump and Melania launched their own meme coins in 2025 and reaped about $1 billion combined, while most investors who bought lost money.

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📉 $100 Oil Is Back

Pip Munch — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:15:00 +0000

Retail owns 0% of ChatGPT's. Here's the workaround.

You can't buy the company behind ChatGPT. Microsoft holds about 27%, the nonprofit 26%, employees roughly 25% — and retail investors, 0%. Most people hear that and assume there's nothing to do.

There is. Four public companies each hold a stake reported in the tens of billions, and every one trades on a regular exchange. No accreditation, no pre-IPO platform, no waitlist — just an ordinary brokerage account this afternoon.

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🛢️ Oil Cracked $100 Again & Your Gas Bill Noticed

Oil just punched back above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The reason is the same one that's been rattling markets all year: the U.S. and Iran are trading blows again. The U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, Iran-backed Houthi militants struck Saudi energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil, is still a warzone.

Here's why oil moving matters to everyone, not just traders. When crude spikes, the cost of gas, diesel, shipping, and just about everything that gets trucked to a store climbs with it. Diesel just hit a record $5.90 a gallon over the weekend, and that quietly feeds into inflation across the whole economy, which is the last thing the Fed wants to see right now.

⚔️ The trigger: U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers plus Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities sent supply fears soaring.
📈 The warning: Goldman Sachs says intensifying shipping attacks raise the odds of Brent topping $120 if this drags on.
📊 The market shrug: Stocks haven't dropped nearly as hard as they did on the July oil spike, a sign investors think this is temporary too.

The Munch Take: We think this fades like it did in July. The pattern is familiar by now: strikes flare up, oil spikes, headlines scream, and then things quietly cool back down. The fact that stocks aren't panicking like they did last time tells you the market largely agrees this is temporary. What's not temporary, unfortunately, is the bill waiting for you at the gas pump. Enjoy filling up your tank while this "temporary" spike sticks around.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🔋 BYD Just Did Something Tesla Can't

BYD, China's electric vehicle giant, just dropped a stat that sounds made up. At a bone-chilling -30°C, its flash-charging system can take a battery from 20% to 97% in just 12 minutes. That's only 3 minutes slower than charging at room temperature. Cold weather normally destroys EV charging speeds, so pulling this off in freezing conditions is a genuine engineering flex. And BYD isn't stopping at the tech. China has already built over 10,000 of these flash-charging stations across 332 cities.

This is the kind of innovation that should make Tesla nervous. While everyone in the West argues about EV demand, BYD keeps quietly shipping breakthroughs and building the infrastructure to support them. This is a company firing on all cylinders.

So can Americans even buy the stock? Sort of. BYD doesn't trade on a major U.S. exchange like the New York Stock Exchange. Instead, most Americans have to buy it "over-the-counter" under the ticker $BYDDY, which is basically a stand-in version of the stock that lets you own it through a U.S. broker without buying shares directly in Hong Kong. It works, it's just a little clunkier and less liquid than buying a normal American stock.

🚗 It already outsells everyone: BYD passed Tesla in global EV sales a while ago and keeps widening the gap, moving millions of vehicles a year.
🌍 It's coming for the West: BYD is aggressively expanding into Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, though U.S. tariffs keep it largely locked out of America for now.
📉 The stock stays cheap for a reason: Down over 12% this year at roughly a $100 billion market cap, BYD trades at a fraction of Tesla's valuation despite selling more cars.

The Munch Take: Here's the funny disconnect. BYD is arguably out-innovating Tesla on charging tech right now, and yet the stock has gone nowhere, down double digits this year. That gap between the incredible technology and the sleepy stock price tells you a lot. Chinese stocks carry real baggage for Western investors, from political risk to trust issues with the numbers, and that keeps a discount stapled to even the best operators. Amazing company, genuinely impressive tech, but the stock has plenty of reasons investors stay cautious.

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📉 Uber's President Just Put $5.3 Million On The Line

Pip Munch — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 08:05:00 +0000

5 Best Cheap Stocks to Buy Under $5

One of the five names that cleared our sub-$5 screen is a defense-focused AI company carrying $409.8 million in cash and investments against a $1.45 billion market cap. Its $269.6 million backlog includes a single $53 million sole-source classified award. The free report names it — and shows the one line on its share count you'd want to see first.

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☕️ GM Munchers! My wife asked me what I wanted to accomplish this week. I said "beat the S&P 500." She said "I meant around the house." We are not the same.

On today’s menu:

🚗 Uber's President Just Put $5.3 Million On The Line
👟 Nike Just Got Kicked Off Wall Street's VIP List
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🇨🇦 The Canada Trade War Just Got Pettier
👀 Most IPO Coverage Missed This AI Story

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,673	-0.58%
Nasdaq	26,421	-0.32%
Dow Jones	52,786	-1.18%
Bitcoin	~$78,570	-0.05%

BREAKING NEWS

🚗 Uber's President Just Put $5.3 Million On The Line

When one of the most senior people inside a company reaches into his own pocket to buy the stock, it's worth a look. Uber President and COO Andrew Macdonald just bought 70,000 shares on the open market for about $5.3 million, at roughly $76 a share. There's an old Wall Street saying: executives sell for a hundred reasons, but they only buy for one and that’s because they think the stock is going higher.

$UBER Uber has had a rough year, down about 12%. Zoom out five years and it's up 83%, which sounds great until you realize the S&P 500 gained 72% over that same stretch. In other words, you took on a much riskier, more volatile stock and barely beat a boring index fund. That's not much reward for the extra heartburn.

Here's the thing weighing on this stock, and it's the big one: robotaxis. Tesla just rolled out its driverless Cybercab in Austin, and Waymo keeps expanding city by city. Uber's whole business is connecting riders to drivers, so a future full of driverless cars is a genuine long-term threat.

🤝 Uber's edge is the app. Millions already have Uber installed and trust the brand, which is a real moat robotaxi makers have to overcome.
💰 Uber has the capital. It's committed over $10 billion to robotaxi partnerships and could buy fleets at scale.
⚠️ Tesla is the scary competitor. Tesla could run its own robotaxis at cost and compete directly, cutting Uber out of the ride entirely.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest take. The insider buy is a genuine vote of confidence, and it's the kind of signal we respect. But it doesn't erase the elephant in the room. If Tesla and Waymo can deploy their own cars and undercut Uber on price, the middleman gets squeezed hard over time. Uber's brand and app give it a real head start, and we're not writing it off. Long term, though, we'd want to see Uber actually win the robotaxi race before betting on it, not just hope its head start holds. Respect the insider signal, but keep both eyes on Tesla.

Mark Sept 21 — Then Read This First (Ad)

Two years, one device, no public details until Sept 21. That's the timeline insider sources describe for Elon's next reveal, and it's worth your attention even if you've never owned a share of Tesla.

It was built entirely inside Tesla's own facilities, according to those same sources. Elon's own description of the result: "10x bigger than the largest product in history."

Claims that size tend to get laughed off, right up until they don't. Apple made a version of this same claim once, and early Apple stock went on to run as high as 7,537%. Nvidia's CEO already puts this device in that category, calling it "the next biggest opportunity after AI."

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STOCK OF THE DAY

👟 Nike Just Got Kicked Off Wall Street's VIP List

Every quarter, the big indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq quietly reshuffle their lineups, adding hot names and dumping cold ones. It sounds boring, but it matters a lot. When a stock gets added, every index fund on earth has to buy it, which lifts the price. When a stock gets cut, it's Wall Street's polite way of saying the party's over.

Nike just got shown the door. The shoemaker was removed from the S&P 100, the club reserved for the bluest of blue-chip stocks, after 18 years on the index. The removal was overdue. $NKE Nike shares are down about 40% this year and a brutal 70%-plus over the past five years, erasing hundreds of billions in market value since its 2021 peak. Meanwhile the index swapped in AI-flavored names like Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and Sandisk. The message is loud: traditional consumer brands are out, anything AI is in.

Here's our honest read. Yes, every 14-year-old girl still owns the white Nike sneakers, but walk into a sporting goods store and see a plain T-shirt priced at $60, and you start to understand the problem. The brand pushed a lot of political messaging a few years back that clearly hurt it, and Nike just doesn't swing with the same cultural punch it used to.

The Munch Take: Will this stock get a dead cat bounce at some point? Absolutely. We wouldn't be shocked to see a 20%, 30%, even 40% pop, so keep an eye on short interest if aggressive bounces are your game. But long term, this isn't a name we want to hold. Trade the bounce if that's your style. We'll pass on owning the fall.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Free Report from Stock Earnings: 5 Stocks Hiding Behind the Robot Revolution

🔮 $GLW Corning jumped 7.58% after landing a multibillion-dollar deal to supply Verizon with fiber-optic tech through 2032.

🧬 $ROIV Roivant Sciences soared 18.75% on strong mid-stage trial results for an experimental treatment targeting a rare lung disease.

💻 $INTC Intel climbed 9.05% on plans to raise PC processor prices by roughly 10% next month. Pricing power is a good look for a company that's spent years trying to prove it still has some.

₿ $MSTR Strategy slipped 4.4% after the biggest corporate Bitcoin holder went a full week without buying any. When the buying pauses, so does some of the excitement around the stock.

🚴 $PTON Peloton fell 6.67% after a Morgan Stanley downgrade pointed to ongoing struggles across the fitness industry. The pandemic darling keeps finding new ways to remind investors those glory days are over.

NEWS OF THE DAY

🇨🇦 The Canada Trade War Just Got Pettier

The U.S.-Canada trade fight escalated again yesterday, and this round is all about who gets to sell to the government. Trump directed the General Services Administration, the agency that handles federal purchasing, to start removing Canadian-origin products from its contract lists. His reasoning: Canada blocks American small businesses from its own government procurement markets, so he's hitting back with "NO RECIPROCITY, NO ACCESS."

The timing is no accident. This landed the same day Canada's retaliatory tariffs officially kicked in, a $27.6 billion dollar-for-dollar package matching the U.S. tariffs that hit earlier. So this is pure tit-for-tat. Canada punched, Trump punched back within hours. Those federal purchasing schedules account for more than $50 billion a year, though nobody's sure how much of that is actually Canadian goods.

🏛️ The move: Canadian products get pulled from U.S. federal contract lists unless Canada opens its own procurement markets to Americans.
💵 The dollar barely flinched: USD/CAD has actually drifted down from about 1.40 a month ago to 1.38, meaning the loonie strengthened during the trade war, the opposite of what you'd expect.
🏭 The winners: U.S. defense and industrial contractors like Oshkosh could scoop up contracts as Canadian suppliers get pushed out.

The Munch Take: We still believe in the TACO trade, and we think this all gets resolved eventually. It's only a matter of time. What's genuinely telling is the currency. USD/CAD should be the most volatile asset in this whole fight, and instead it's just bouncing gently around support at 1.38, actually favoring the Canadian dollar. That’s the market's way of saying it doesn't expect anything catastrophic here. We wouldn't make a single drastic portfolio move over this. Mostly, it's all for show.

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

👀 Most IPO coverage missed this AI story (Ad)
🇺🇲 This politician just bought Bitcoin.
⛽️ Diesel prices just hit a record high.
🌊 Massive floods in Japan right now.

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🇺🇲 The US Dollar Is Getting Destroyed

Pip Munch — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 16:03:00 +0000

Anthropic Filed Confidentially. October Is The Window.

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💵 The Dollar Has Lost 97% Of Its Value & Nobody Blinks

Here's a number that should stop you cold. Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost roughly 97% of its purchasing power. A $3 item back then would cost you about $100 today. Put simply, one dollar buys almost nothing compared to what it used to, and that slow bleed has been happening the entire time, quietly, in the background, for over a century.

This is the single most important lesson in all of investing, and most people never learn it. Holding cash over the long run is one of the worst things you can do with your money. Cash doesn't sit still and hold its value. It melts. Every year inflation quietly shaves a little more off what your dollars can buy, and over decades that adds up to almost everything.

Here's the mind-bending part that reframes how you should see the whole market. When you hear that home prices or stock prices are "going up," ask yourself a better question: are those things actually getting more valuable, or is the dollar they're priced in getting worth less?

Take a house that cost $500,000 in 2020 and jumped to $700,000 by 2022. Did that house get 40% better? It's the same house, now two years older, with the same walls and the same roof. It didn't gain value. The dollar lost value, so it simply takes more dollars to buy the same thing. A lot of what looks like "growth" is really just the measuring stick shrinking.

📉 The dollar is the melting ice cube. Down 97% since 1913, cash is guaranteed to lose value over time, not by accident but by design.
🏠 Assets aren't always "going up." Often the asset holds its value while the dollar falls, which just makes the price tag bigger.
🥇 The proof is in gold. The Dow-to-gold ratio peaked near 43 at the dot-com top in 1999-2000. Today it sits around 10, meaning stocks have actually lost enormous ground versus gold over the last 25 years, even while looking like they went "up" in dollars.

That last point is the kicker. Measured in dollars, the stock market looks like a rocket since 2000. Measured in gold, real money that can't be printed, stocks have gone backward. The dollar chart is lying to you and the gold chart is telling the truth.

The Munch Take: This is the whole reason we keep hammering the same message: you have to own assets. Stocks, real estate, gold, Bitcoin, the specific mix is up to you, but sitting in cash for the long haul is a slow, guaranteed way to lose. The dollar was designed to lose value, and 97% over a century is the receipt. Own things that can't be printed or get left behind.

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CHART OF THE DAY

🚀 Bitcoin Is Flashing A Bullish Signal

Speaking of hard money that can't be printed, we've been bullish on Bitcoin for months now, and something interesting is happening on the charts. Bitcoin is about to flash what traders call a "golden cross" for the first time in 474 days, expected to confirm around September 11. It's one of the oldest and most-watched bullish signals in all of markets.

Here's the plain-English version. A golden cross happens when Bitcoin's average price over the last 50 days climbs above its average over the last 200 days. In simple terms, it means recent buying momentum has gotten strong enough to potentially flip the longer-term trend from bearish to bullish. Traders have watched this exact signal across stocks and commodities for generations, and it tends to grab attention when it fires.

📈 The track record is real but mixed. Bitcoin has flashed 12 golden crosses since 2012, averaging a 24.9% three-month gain. The last three specifically preceded rallies of 50%, 45%, and 60%.
⚠️ It's not a guarantee. Only 3 of those 12 crosses held for a full year, and the signal has sometimes reversed within weeks, so this is a tailwind, not a promise.
💰 The money is showing up too. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just pulled in $3.8 billion over three weeks, their strongest inflow stretch of 2026, adding real fuel behind the chart pattern.

The Munch Take: We're currently up about 23% on our Bitcoin position, which we've been talking about openly for several months now. This golden cross is a nice tailwind, but let's be honest about what it is: a lagging signal that works more often than not, not a crystal ball. We're not adding here just because a chart pattern lit up. We built this position patiently over months, and now we're happy to sit back and ride it. Hard money that can't be printed, catching a bullish signal, in a world where the dollar keeps melting. That's a setup we're comfortable holding.

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📉 Good News Is Bad News

Pip Munch — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:03:00 +0000

The 3 space stocks that skipped SpaceX's crash

$108. That's where SpaceX sat by early August — priced at $135, ran to $225 in three days, then gave the whole move back. Anyone who bought the pop watched a 67% gain turn into a loss.

Meanwhile, money was already rotating. Good Morning Alerts' analyst has been tracking 3 space stocks that never took that round trip, because nobody bid them to nosebleed levels first. The free report names all 3 with entry guidance and price targets, plus a bonus 4th pick and a 3-phase playbook for when to buy and when to sell.

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☕️ GM Munchers! How was the long weekend? I did zero yard work, ignored two texts from my mother-in-law, and checked crypto prices while barbecuing. In other words, a complete success.

On today’s menu:

📅 Why The Jobs Report Rattled Stocks
🚗 This Is Why We Can't Have Cool Things
🧘 Lululemon Just Won’t Stop
✈️ Trump Told America To Stop Buying Bombardier
🇺🇲 The US Dollar Is Getting Destroyed

Friday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,718	-0.38%
Nasdaq	26,506	-0.29%
Dow Jones	53,414	-0.51%
Bitcoin	~$79,800	-1.79%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 Good News Was Bad News: The Jobs Report Rattled Stocks

The job market is like the kid who studied too hard and blew the curve for everyone else. On Friday we learned the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, roughly triple what economists expected, and Wall Street responded by throwing a fit.

Here's why. A hot jobs report means the economy doesn't need help, which gives the Fed room to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Higher rates pull money out of stocks and into safer assets, so the market sold off on the "good" news. Odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting jumped to around 52%. We’re officially in pure coin flip territory which leads to only one thing: volatility.

🎯 The date: The Fed decides September 16-17, and right now it's a true 50/50 call.
📊 The real main event: The August inflation report drops this Friday, and it's the single most important data point left before the Fed meets.
⚖️ The setup: With hike odds sitting on a knife's edge, expect real volatility as we head toward Friday and then the decision itself.

The Munch Take: Markets are going to be wildly jumpy as we move closer to September 17th. Friday's inflation report is the thing to watch this week and it could be a wildly volatile day. A cool number could tip the Fed toward holding steady, while a hot one could seal the hike. Buckle up, because a genuine 50/50 event tends to swing hard once the answer finally lands.

Sept 21: what Elon's been hiding inside Tesla (Ad)

Say Elon's device turns out to be everything he's promising. You still can't invest in it directly — the company behind it hasn't gone public, and there's no ordinary way to own a piece of it.

That's only half the picture, though.

According to insider sources, this device has been two years in the making inside Tesla's own facilities, and Elon calls it "10x bigger than the largest product in history." Something built at that scale needs suppliers, and a handful of those suppliers already trade on public exchanges.

Good Morning Alerts' analyst tracked down three of them and put the full ticker symbols into a free briefing.

See the 3 public tickers.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🚗 This Is Why We Can't Have Cool Things

Tesla launched its driverless Cybercab in Austin last week, and the videos are really, really cool. Picture a two-seat robotaxi with no steering wheel, no pedals, no mirrors, and butterfly doors, casually picking up paying passengers off the street. It looks like the future finally showed up. That is, until the government showed up too.

$TSLA Tesla fell 5.92% on Friday after federal safety regulators opened an investigation into whether the Cybercab actually meets U.S. safety standards. The problem is that decades-old rules assume every car has a human driver with a wheel, pedals, and mirrors, and the Cybercab has exactly none of those. Tesla self-certified that it complies anyway and skipped the exemption process that rival Zoox patiently waited through. Regulators now want to know why.

When you look at the bigger picture, it also isn’t pretty. Tesla stock is down 19% this year, and that's even after Elon Musk has seemingly stepped away from politics, which many assumed would help. Over the past five years, the stock is up just 44%, badly trailing the S&P 500's roughly 70% over the same stretch. You also have to wonder how much risk-hungry capital has flowed into SpaceX that might otherwise have landed in Tesla. That's not just our theory either. Prediction markets now put a 46% chance that Tesla and SpaceX will officially merge by the end of 2027.

The Munch Take: The robotaxi tech looks incredible, and it's a little sad watching regulators slam the brakes on the coolest thing in transportation right now. Silly safety standards aside, here's our actual position on the stock. As usual, Tesla only gets interesting to us under $300, and it's sitting around $354 today. That means we'd need a real drop before we'd even think about touching it. Great cars, wild story, but the numbers still have to make sense, and at these prices they don't for us yet.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Free Report from Stock Earnings: 5 Physical AI Stocks Before Wall Street Crowds In

🎬 $AMC AMC Entertainment rose 3.94% after CEO Adam Aron went on a full thesaurus rampage against Robinhood's AMC stock tokens, calling them "contemptible, outrageous, disgusting, detestable, inexcusable, vile." Say what you want, but the man clearly meant it.

🔫 $SWBI Smith & Wesson popped 5.05% after beating on both earnings and revenue. A clean beat was all it took to put a little firepower back in the stock.

🧘 $LULU Lululemon tumbled 17.38% after a weak quarter and a cut to its full-year outlook. Turns out the stock is as flexible as the pants they sell.

🎨 $ADBE Adobe fell 6.73% after naming Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO. A leadership change at the top makes investors nervous, even when the handoff looks planned.

📺 $TTD The Trade Desk dropped 4.37% on plans to cut 15% of its staff in a broader restructuring. Layoffs might save money down the road, but the market read it as a warning sign for now.

CHART OF THE DAY

✈️ Trump Just Told America To Stop Buying Bombardier

Trump opened a new front in the Canada trade war yesterday and this time the target has wings. In a Truth Social post, he declared "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES," slamming the Canadian jet maker's products as "not good enough" and telling Americans to "buy American, fly on American airliners." He argued that over 50% of Bombardier's revenue comes from the U.S. while Canada blocks American companies like Gulfstream from doing business up north.

Here's the wrinkle that makes this messy. Trump complained that Bombardier lives off American buyers, then in the same breath admitted Americans buy a ton of its planes. About half of the roughly 5,100 Bombardier jets in service are based in the U.S., and the company runs a defense factory in Kansas. Untangling all of that overnight would hurt American operators too, and the White House hasn't explained how this ban would even work.

Now here's what makes this genuinely interesting: the stock. $BBD.B Bombardier has been on an absolute tear, up nearly 31% year to date and a staggering 563% over the past five years. This is one of the great turnaround stories in Canadian markets, driven by a pivot to high-margin business jets and a booming defense order book.

Is the stock a buy?

📈 The Bull Case:

The five-year turnaround has been incredible thanks to strong business-jet demand and a growing, high-margin defense backlog.
Trump's threats aren't new. He floated 50% tariffs on Bombardier back in January and never actually followed through.
Ripping the company out of the U.S. would hurt American airlines and jet owners, giving Washington real incentive to soften this.

📉 The Bear Case:

Over half of revenue comes from the U.S., so even a partial disruption is a serious threat to the core business.
This lands inside a genuine, escalating trade war, not a one-off tantrum, so the risk of real policy is higher than usual.
After a 563% run, the stock is priced for good news, and a real ban would give it plenty of room to fall.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest call: we think this is mostly noise, not a real death blow. Trump threatened almost this exact thing in January and quietly walked it away, and a full ban would punish American airlines and jet buyers just as much as Bombardier. That said, we're not buyers here either. A stock up 563% in five years, sitting in the middle of an active trade war, is not the kind of dip-buy setup we chase. Great company, incredible run, but we'd want this thing much cheaper and this fight much calmer before ever touching it.

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📈 Major Jobs Report Incoming

Pip Munch — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:05:00 +0000

$1.52 to $3.36 in a single weekend

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☕️ GM Munchers! It's Friday, which means I need to start rehearsing my fake cough now so it sounds believable enough to skip the in-laws on Sunday. Wish me luck.

On today’s menu:

📆 Big Rip, Bigger Report
👙 Victoria's Secret Fell Hard Despite Crushing Profits
🧘 Tesla, Meta & Lululemon
🤑 Bitcoin Ripped To $81K And Torched The Bears
🚀 SpaceX Just Had A Crazy Day

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,747	+1.06%
Nasdaq	26,584	+1.40%
Dow Jones	53,686	+1.18%
Bitcoin	~$81,400	+5.35%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 Stocks Ripped, But This Morning's Jobs Report Is The Real Test

The market strutted into September like a guy who forgot the whole month has a history of humbling him. Stocks ripped higher and two things did the heavy lifting. First, bond yields kept falling after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he'd support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. Second, Vice President JD Vance publicly called for the Fed to cut rates, saying it would help Americans afford homes and adding that "it would be nice to have some help." More political pressure for lower rates never hurts stocks.

Here's what actually matters this morning. The August jobs report, formally called nonfarm payrolls, drops before the market opens, and it's the last major piece of data before the Fed's September 16 meeting. Economists expect a weak number, around 45,000 new jobs. In today's upside-down market, weak jobs data is actually good news for stocks, because a softer labor market gives the Fed a reason to cut rates instead of hiking them.

📊 The number to watch: Roughly 45,000 new jobs is expected. A big miss below that boosts rate-cut hopes fast.
🎯 Why it matters: This is the final major data point before the Fed decides on September 16.
⚖️ The setup: Hike odds already fell to about 50%, so a soft report could tip the Fed toward standing pat, or even cutting.

The Munch Take: It's a strange world when bad jobs news makes stocks happy, but that's exactly the setup heading into this morning. Watch that payrolls number closely, because it carries more weight than anything else next week.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

👙 Victoria's Secret Fell Hard Despite Crushing Profits

The Victoria's Secret fashion show is back, and while the guys are thrilled, shareholders got a cold shower yesterday.

$VSXY sank 13.17% after a quarter that looked great on the surface but spooked investors anyways. Revenue rose 10% to $1.61 billion, just barely missing the $1.62 billion Wall Street wanted, while adjusted earnings of $0.95 a share blew past the $0.75 expected. So why the crash? A minor sales miss plus soft profit guidance for was enough to trigger heavy profit-taking, and this stock had a lot of profit to take.

But you know what’s crazy? Even after this drop, Victoria's Secret is still up 38% year to date and a staggering 220% over the past year. If you had put $100,000 into the stock the day it announced the fashion show was coming back, you'd be sitting on roughly $400,000 today. That's the kind of comeback story that turns a written-off brand into a market darling.

📈 The Bull Case:

The turnaround is real, with comparable sales up 9%, adjusted gross margin expanding sharply, and management raising full-year guidance.
International sales jumped 20%, led by China and Europe.
The fashion show returns this month, and its last comeback proved these marketing moments can drive genuine sales heat.

📉 The Bear Case:

Q2's giant profit beat was heavily boosted by over $140 million in one-time tariff refunds, which flatters the numbers and won't repeat.
Weak current-quarter profit guidance suggests the underlying business isn't as strong as the headline earnings made it look.
After a 220% one-year run, expectations are sky-high, and even a tiny miss now triggers a violent reaction.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest call: we're not buyers here. The turnaround is genuinely impressive and the brand heat is real, but a 220% run in a year, propped up by a one-time tariff refund and now flashing soft profit guidance, is exactly the setup where the easy money has already been made. When a stock this stretched punishes a great earnings report, that tells you expectations got ahead of the business. We’ll wait for a pullback to around $60 where there’s some support.

MARKET OVERVIEW

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🚗 $TSLA Tesla rallied 5.42% ahead of a robotaxi event in Austin, where the company is set to welcome its first public riders in the steering-wheel-free Cybercab. Nothing gets this stock moving like a shiny autonomous milestone.

🤖 $META Meta climbed 3.01% after launching its new Muse Spark 1.3 AI model. In this market, a fresh AI release is basically a cheat code for a green day.

💻 $DELL Dell extended its huge run with another 4.63% gain after its earnings beat and raised outlook kept AI server excitement alive.

🪙 $HOOD Robinhood jumped 16.57% after a pair of analyst upgrades pointed to its growing menu of financial products. The little trading app keeps proving it's turning into something much bigger.

🥩 $TSN Tyson Foods fell 7.26% after cutting its full-year outlook, with ongoing weakness in its beef business dragging down results.

🧘 $LULU Lululemon crashed over 20% after-hours on disappointing earnings and a weak outlook, and it's now down over 40% this year. Guess women are realizing leggings made from oil might not be the healthiest thing to wear.

CHART OF THE DAY

🤑 Bitcoin Ripped To $81K And Torched The Bears

Bitcoin is walking into September like a freshman with a fake ID and way too much confidence. Yesterday it climbed over 5% to touch $81,000 and wiped out five straight days of losses in just a few hours. The move was so fast it liquidated roughly $140 million in short positions in just 60 minutes, and over $400 million across the day. It was a classic short squeeze and it was violent.

So, what happened? With so many short sellers hoping the price would fall, after Bitcoin moved higher, those bets went underwater fast and the exchanges force-closed them by buying Bitcoin at market price. That forced buying pushed the price up even more, which triggered even more shorts to blow up, and the whole thing snowballed into rocket fuel.

The spark behind it was the Fed. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be inclined to support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. That single comment dropped the odds of a September rate hike from about 63% to roughly 43%, and risk assets like Bitcoin took off. Over $1 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs across the week too, adding real institutional fuel on top of the squeeze.

The Munch Take: We've been bullish on Bitcoin nearly every single day, and this is a lovely way to end the week. Hats off to anyone who held through the June bloodbath and the recent chop with us. We never got the $70,000 retest we were watching for, and that's completely fine. We've been buying steadily for months, so we're more than happy to just ride the wave from here.

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📉 Dell's Stock Explodes

Pip Munch — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:05:00 +0000

3 Public Tickers With a Stake In October's Mega-IPO

Dear Reader,

The most anticipated IPO of the decade has a problem.

You're not invited.

The company reportedly declared unauthorized share transfers void, which slammed the door on the pre-IPO platforms where insiders usually trade.

No secondary market.

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☕️ GM Munchers! Happy Little Friday. My wife reminded me that "Little Friday" isn't a real thing and that I still have to work tomorrow. She's right, which somehow made it worse.

On today’s menu:

🚗 Uber Just Cut 3,300 Jobs To Bet Big On Robotaxis
💻 Dell Just Proved It's Secretly An AI Powerhouse
👀 2:59 PM Friday. Make this trade.
☕️ The Price of Coffee Is Crashing
🇺🇲 The New $1 Trump Coin Is Now In Circulation

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,666	+0.46%
Nasdaq	26,217	+0.45%
Dow Jones	53,061	+0.56%
Bitcoin	~$77,370	-0.05%

BREAKING NEWS

🚗 Uber Just Cut 3,300 Jobs To Bet Big On Robotaxis

$UBER Uber announced its largest layoffs since the pandemic, cutting roughly 3,300 employees, about 10% of its global workforce, in a major restructuring aimed at slashing costs. The company is also reducing its number of managers by 20%. This is Uber's second-largest layoff in company history, behind only the brutal 2020 cuts when ride demand collapsed.

Here's the important context, though. Unlike a lot of tech layoffs, this one isn't happening because the business is struggling. The CEO said Uber's growth over the years created "more layers, more coordination, and fragmented ownership.” Basically corporate bloat. The company is trimming redundant management to move faster, not because the core business is broken.

The stock has had a rough year, down almost 8% while the S&P 500 has climbed almost 12%. That underperformance ties directly to one looming story: robotaxis.

💰 The war chest: Uber has committed over $10 billion to robotaxi partnerships, trying to position itself as the go-to for driverless rides.
🤝 The partners: Uber works with Waymo in cities like Austin and Atlanta, and has deals with Amazon's Zoox, plus Nissan and Wayve for a Tokyo pilot. It does not currently have a Tesla robotaxi deal.
⚠️ The threat: Waymo has started entering some markets on its own, and Tesla is chasing its own robotaxi fleet, raising fears these players could cut Uber out as the middleman.

The Munch Take: Our honest read is that cutting managers isn't going to dent Uber's actual operations one bit. This is trimming redundancy, not muscle, and the market seemed to agree, sending shares up about 2% on the news. The real story here isn't the layoffs, it's the $10 billion robotaxi bet underneath them. Uber is trying to become the platform every driverless car plugs into, and whether that makes it the winner or the middleman that gets cut out is the question that actually decides the future of this stock.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

💻 Dell Just Proved It's Secretly An AI Powerhouse

$DELL Dell Technologies rocketed 15.91% yesterday after a blowout quarter, and the stock is now up an eye-watering 285% year to date. It's still a company most people think of as the maker of their boring corporate laptop but they’re quietly becoming one of the biggest winners of the entire AI buildout.

Here's what the numbers actually showed. Dell posted record revenue of $47 billion, up 58% from a year ago and well above the $44.9 billion Wall Street expected. Adjusted earnings more than tripled to $7.04 a share, crushing the $4.91 analysts wanted. Even the old-school businesses ripped, with PC sales up 20% and traditional server and networking revenue jumping 122%.

While all the numbers are great, the AI infrastructure story is the real engine here. Everyone obsesses over Nvidia's chips, but those chips are useless without servers, networking, and storage to actually run them, and Dell supplies a mountain of that gear.

🏗️ The AI business is enormous: Dell's infrastructure group posted record revenue of $31.8 billion, up 89%, now roughly two-thirds of the whole company.
📦 The backlog is staggering: Customers ordered $60.9 billion in AI servers this quarter alone, leaving Dell with a record $95 billion order backlog waiting to be filled.
📈 Guidance went sky-high: Dell raised its full-year revenue forecast by $25 billion to $192 billion, which would mean nearly 70% annual growth.

The Munch Take: This one perfectly fits our whole "sell the shovels" AI thesis, and the numbers are frankly a little crazy. Here's our honest take, though: we're not chasing it. A stock up 285% in a year has already made the gains for whoever was early, and buying now means paying up right after a monster move. The business is real and the AI demand is real, but the easy money on this one has already been made. We'd want a serious pullback before ever touching it.

MARKET OVERVIEW

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🖥️ $NVDA Nvidia had itself a day, climbing 3.21%. The market's favourite AI name reminded everyone why it's still the one to watch.

🦊 $GTLB GitLab jumped 9.98% after beating expectations, with revenue up 21% as more developers leaned on its software platform to build AI tools.

👽 $RDDT Reddit rose 9.27% after Baird held its Neutral rating steady ahead of key data-licensing deals coming up for renewal. Not bad for "wait and see" call.

📷 $GPRO GoPro soared another 37.4% as excitement around its pivot to AI kept snowballing. Two monster days in a row means this one has officially gone from camera stock to momentum rocket.

🔐 $PANW Palo Alto Networks fell 9.28% as traders cashed in gains even after a strong quarter. Sometimes good results just become a reason to take money off the table.

🔋 $FCEL FuelCell Energy dropped 15.69% after a rough quarter that included a 29% slide in revenue. Shrinking sales are exactly the kind of thing that sends a stock straight to the penalty box.

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📉 Bond Yields, Bombs & $95 Oil

Pip Munch — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 08:03:00 +0000

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Dear Reader,

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☕️ GM Munchers! September walked in and immediately reminded everyone why it's the market's least favourite month. Let's break down exactly what happened.

On today’s menu:

📉 Bond Yields, Bombs & $95 Oil
📚 Rich Dad, Poor Dad, $1.2 Billion In Debt Dad
🌻 Why Wall Street Hates September
📷️ Somebody Is Buying GoPro
🤯 How Much The New Apple CEO Is Getting Paid

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,631	-0.71%
Nasdaq	26,099	-1.03%
Dow Jones	52,766	-0.79%
Bitcoin	~$77,000	-1.93%

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Bond Yields, Bombs, And $95 Oil Sent Stocks Sliding

Stocks fell for the third straight day yesterday, and this time there were real reasons behind it, not just September jitters. The U.S. launched a fresh round of airstrikes Tuesday on sites tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Oil climbed back above $95 a barrel on the news, and that single fact set off a chain reaction across the entire market.

Yes, oil can be boring but here’s why it matters so much. Expensive oil makes almost everything cost more, from gas to shipped goods and that fuels inflation. When investors expect more inflation, they dump bonds, since inflation eats away at the fixed payments bonds provide. That selling pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to about 4.8%, its highest since January 2025. Remember, bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so falling bond prices mean rising yields.

🌍 This isn't just a U.S. problem. Japan's 10-year yield briefly touched 3% for the first time in 30 years, and Germany's hit a 2011 high as the bond selloff went global.
🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is still choked off. Roughly 20% of the world's oil normally passes through that waterway and it still remains largely shut.
🏦 Rate hike odds keep climbing. Traders now see about a 66% chance the Fed raises rates at its September 16 meeting which is bad news for stocks, especially tech.

The Munch Take: Higher oil, higher yields, and a hotter Iran conflict all landed in the same 48 hours, which is a lot for any market to swallow at once. Here's the silver lining nobody mentions, though: those same sky-high yields mean relatively safe Treasuries now pay 4% to 5%, the best risk-free return in years. We're not panicking over a rough few days. If this keeps knocking quality names down, we treat it as a shopping list, not a reason to run.

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CHART OF THE DAY

📚 Rich Dad, Poor Dad, $1.2 Billion In Debt Dad

Robert Kiyosaki, the man who taught millions of people how to think about money through his book Rich Dad Poor Dad, is now happily bragging about being $1.2 billion in debt. His logic, which he's stated for years, is that he borrows money to buy assets like real estate and precious metals, and famously says "if I go bust, the bank goes bust, not my problem."

Here's the honest context most headlines skip. Kiyosaki doesn't personally owe $1.2 billion. According to an August 2026 Vanity Fair profile, that debt is spread across a group of real estate investors tied to roughly 1,500 apartment units, and his personal share is reportedly much smaller. So the scary billion-dollar number is more marketing than meltdown.

And the marketing is the real story here. The book itself is genuinely good, and its core lesson holds up: spend less than you earn, and understand the difference between assets and liabilities. The problem is Kiyosaki the pundit. He has called for the biggest crash in world history almost every single week for the last 10 to 15 years, and a broken clock has better odds than his track record.

The Munch Take: We wouldn't take a single drop of his actual market timing advice. Predicting a crash every week isn't analysis, it's a personality. The funny part is that his own book preaches spending less than you make, while he turns a giant debt pile into a headline to stay relevant. Read the book, skip the crash predictions, and definitely don't build your portfolio around a guy whose whole brand is yelling "the end is near" into a camera on repeat.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Free Report: The midterm rotation points to these 5 stocks (via Good Morning Alerts)

🍎 $AAPL Apple rose 2.61% as John Ternus stepped into the CEO chair for his first day, officially taking the baton from Tim Cook after a 15-year run. A smooth handoff at the top was exactly what shareholders wanted to see.

⚡ $FERV Fervo Energy jumped 28.41% after landing a deal to feed Google roughly 400 megawatts of geothermal power from its Utah project. When Big Tech comes knocking for clean energy, the supplier's stock tends to light up.

📷 $GPRO GoPro rocketed 40.38% on news that Starman Optical is buying the company for $285 million. A takeout offer is the kind of jolt this camera maker has been waiting years for.

🦉 $DUOL Duolingo climbed 7.02% after Evercore ISI upgraded it, betting on a rebound in user growth. Guess they haven't heard that I haven't practiced my German in over 6 months.

💻 $DELL Dell fell 6.8% heading into its earnings report, with expectations sitting sky-high after the stock's huge run this year. Big rallies raise the bar, and nervous investors got out ahead of the number.

BIG PICTURE

📉 Why Wall Street Quietly Dreads September

Here's a spooky little secret the market doesn't advertise. September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 0.7% in September. The Dow has dropped about 0.8% over that same stretch, and the Nasdaq has sunk roughly 0.9% every September since 1971.

The scariest stat is the batting average. September has delivered positive returns for the S&P 500 only about 45% of the time, making it the only month besides February that finishes negative on average. In other words, more Septembers end red than green, year after year after year.

🏖️ The vacation theory: The "sell in May and go away" crowd comes back from summer, starts paying attention again, and sometimes doesn't like what they see.
📊 The window-dressing theory: Fund managers start eyeing their yearly profit and loss and reshuffle their holdings ahead of year-end.
📉 The bond overhang: Add in this year's ongoing bond market drama and rising rate-hike fears, and the usual September gloom has extra company.

The Munch Take: None of this means you should panic or sell everything and hide until October. Seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees, and plenty of Septembers have finished green. If anything, we treat a weak, jumpy month as a shopping season, not a reason to run. History says expect some turbulence. It never said the plane crashes.

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📉 Your August Recap

Pip Munch — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 08:03:00 +0000

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☕️ GM Munchers! Somehow it's September already. My big summer plans were a water park and a lake day, and I accomplished neither, mostly because the market refused to take a vacation and neither did I.

On today’s menu:

📊 August In The Books
📉 A September Rate Hike Became A Coin Flip
🚙 Tesla Climbs Over 5%
🍎 Tim Cook Just Worked His Last Day At Apple
😬 These Investing Legends Aren’t Doing Very Well

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,711	-0.25%
Nasdaq	26,402	-0.52%
Dow Jones	53,559	-0.02%
Bitcoin	~$77,557	-3.39%

✅ Bonus Report: Claim the stock ticker I promised you (via Chaikin Analytics)

BREAKING NEWS

📊 August In The Books: Corporate America Had A Monster Quarter

The golden days of Wall Street aren’t over yet.

August gave us one of the strongest earnings seasons in years. S&P 500 companies grew their earnings 53% from a year earlier and revenue climbed nearly 16%. That marks the fastest earnings growth the index has posted since 2021. But like most things that look too good on the surface, the real story is in what drove it and whether any of it can last.

AI played the role of that one strong friend on moving day, hauling the fridge up three flights while everyone else claimed a pillow and called it teamwork. The Magnificent Seven grew earnings a staggering 118.5% last quarter, boosted by huge investment gains at Amazon and Alphabet. Strip out just those two companies and the group's growth drops to 43.2%. Still strong, just less jaw-dropping.

Then came the tariff refunds. After the Supreme Court overturned certain tariffs, companies got billions of dollars back, and that cash landed straight in their profit columns. Target alone received nearly $1 billion in refunds. Abercrombie got about $100 million. That's real money but it's a one-time sugar rush.

🛒 The consumer showed up. Dollar General posted its fifth straight quarter of rising store traffic, Best Buy saw strong electronics demand, and names from Target to Garmin raised their full-year forecasts.
🛢️ Energy led the pack. Higher oil prices pushed the energy sector to 42.5% revenue growth, the strongest of any S&P 500 sector last quarter.
📈 Optimism is spreading. Almost twice as many companies raised their profit forecasts as cut them, a sharp flip from a year ago when downgrades were the majority.

So, what’s the catch? Growth this fast almost never sticks around. The S&P 500's trailing earnings growth hit roughly 35%, a level topped in only about 8% of quarters since 1928. History says these rare bursts are usually followed by much slower stretches. And some of this quarter's biggest boosters are temporary by nature, since tariff refunds run out, giant investment gains don't repeat on schedule, and energy profits lean on oil prices staying high.

The Munch Take: None of this means profits are about to fall off a cliff. Corporate America can keep making more money even as the growth rate cools back down to earth. The smart move heading into fall is the oldest one in the book: expect a little less, and leave yourself room to be pleasantly surprised. My wife has run our whole household budget on that exact philosophy for years, always assuming the surprise bill is coming, and she has never once been caught off guard when it does.

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CHART OF THE DAY

📉 A September Rate Hike Became A Coin Flip

Stocks dropped again yesterday as Wall Street finally chewed on an idea it had been trying not to taste: the Fed might hike instead of cut. Prediction markets now price in a 55% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting, up from about 35% just a week ago. The shift traces straight back to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, where he made clear that beating inflation is his top priority and the Fed still has "work to do."

Remember, every time rate hike odds climb, stocks tend to wobble and that makes us all very sad. Expect more of this jumpiness as we get closer to September 16. Here's the key part: the closer those odds sit to a true 50/50, the more violent the actual reaction will be, because half the market will be caught leaning the wrong way no matter what the Fed does.

🎯 The date: The Fed's next decision lands September 16 and right now it’s a coin flip.
📊 The odds: Markets now see roughly a 55% chance of a hike, a big jump from a week ago.
⚡ The setup: The tighter the odds, the bigger the market swing when the decision actually drops.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest take. If this fear knocks stocks down, good. Rates always get cut eventually, and we all know what that does for stocks when it happens. Whether we wait 12 months or 36 months does not matter to us one bit. This is an opportunity to stack great companies at better prices and simply be patient. If Bitcoin dips below $75,000, we'll keep adding, and we'll hunt for discounted stocks the same way. Most of this hike fear will get priced in before the meeting even arrives, so we're not flinching at the headlines.

MARKET OVERVIEW

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🚗 $CAR Avis Budget Group rallied 6.78% on what one analyst basically chalked up to good old-fashioned luck. Sometimes a stock catches a break it didn't really earn, and nobody's complaining.

🚙 $TSLA Tesla rose 5.51% ahead of expected self-driving updates, including a pothole-dodging feature Elon Musk teased. Investors will get excited about almost anything with the word "autonomous" attached.

🎮 $GME GameStop popped 2.85% after early results suggested its eBay stake should give second-quarter profit a nice lift.

📌 $PINS Pinterest fell 6.38% after news that CFO Julia Brau Donnelly plans to exit at the end of October. Based on how much time my wife spends on that website, I think they’ll be okay.

✈️ $HWM Howmet Aerospace dropped 7.51% after Elon Musk said SpaceX wants to build its own turbine blades and vanes in-house. When a big customer talks about cutting out its supplier, that supplier's stock usually hears it loud and clear.

BIG NEWS

🍎 Tim Cook Just Worked His Last Day At Apple

Yesterday marked the end of an era. Tim Cook worked his final day as Apple's CEO, closing out a 15-year run that will no doubt land him in the business hall of fame. When Cook took over from Steve Jobs in 2011, Apple was worth about $350 billion. Under his leadership, it became the second company in history to touch a $5 trillion market cap, which it did back in July. Revenue climbed from roughly $108 billion to nearly $400 billion, and the stock gained around 2,280% during his tenure, crushing the S&P 500's 555% over the same stretch.

Here's the honest part, though. Cook was a masterful operator and capital manager, but a genuine innovator he was not. Outside of AirPods, Apple has basically released the same iPhone year after year, leaning on its ecosystem and pricing power rather than breaking new ground. That's exactly why the board picked a hardware engineer as his successor.

👔 The new boss: John Ternus, Apple's longtime hardware engineering chief, takes over today after 25 years at the company.
📱 What's next: Apple is reportedly prepping its first foldable iPhone, a real test of whether Ternus can actually innovate where Cook coasted.
🤖 The big question: Apple has lagged badly on AI investment, and time will tell whether that caution ages like wisdom or like a mistake.

The Munch Take: So far, the market has rewarded Apple's careful, buyback-heavy approach, sending the stock up almost 17% this year even while critics (including me) complained it wasn't innovating. Cook proved you can win by managing money brilliantly instead of inventing the future. Whether that playbook keeps working in an AI-driven world is Ternus's problem now, and I’m excited to see how it unfolds.

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📉 The Biggest Oil Deal In History

Pip Munch — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:03:00 +0000

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☕️ GM Munchers! In a wild change of events, I was the moody one this weekend and not my wife. I sulked, I sighed loudly, I did the whole routine. She just handed me a coffee and let me marinate, which was annoyingly mature of her.

On today’s menu:

🛢️ Trump Just Made The Biggest Oil Deal In History
💸 PayPal’s Buyout Dream Just Died
📉 The Fed Crashed Bitcoin’s Party
📦️ Amazon, The Gap & Draftkings
🍎 Tim Cook’s Final Day At Apple

Friday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,711	-0.25%
Nasdaq	26,402	-0.52%
Dow Jones	53,559	-0.02%
Bitcoin	~$77,557	-3.39%

BREAKING NEWS

🛢️ Trump Just Made The Biggest Oil Deal In History

Uncle Sam went shopping for oil, and he came home with a lot of it. Trump announced Friday that the U.S. secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves, calling it "the biggest oil deal in world history." The deal gives the U.S. an effective 55% share of Venezuela’s output plus the right to buy that oil at cost, all at no direct cost to taxpayers.

This is excellent news for stocks, your portfolio and especially the Fed. More oil supply generally means cheaper energy and that takes pressure off both gas prices and inflation. If this helps inflation finally drop, we may see fewer rate hikes and who knows, maybe even some cuts down the road.

What’s the catch? Timing. Venezuela's oil infrastructure is wrecked after years of neglect, the crude is heavy and hard to refine, and it'll take around $100 billion in investment before these barrels actually flow, so this is a multi-year story, not an overnight fix.

🛢️ The catalyst: The U.S. secured 55% of output from 17 Venezuelan oil fields holding over 65 billion barrels, more than doubling U.S. reserves.
📊 The numbers: WTI crude closed near $83.40 Friday, and U.S. proven reserves sit around 46 billion barrels, so this deal is genuinely massive by comparison.
🇨🇦 The risk: Cheaper oil down the road could seriously sting Canada, where oil and gas make up roughly 5% of GDP and the Canadian dollar closely tracks oil prices.

The Munch Take: Great for U.S. stocks and inflation eventually, rough for Canada, and years away from actually mattering, which is the most on-brand oil headline you could ask for. Once markets open today, we expect to see a rally on this good news. However, this headline hasn’t lowered the odds of a September rate hike which currently sits at 48%. So like my wife’s mood, this could go either way.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

💸 PayPal's Buyout Dream Just Died

PayPal $PYPL got taken to the woodshed on Friday. The stock cratered 12.71% to close below $54 after Stripe and Advent International walked away from their $53 billion takeover bid, which had valued PayPal at $60.50 a share. The entire rally that carried this stock up roughly 30% since July was built on that buyout hope, and on Friday that hope evaporated in a single headline.

Here's what makes this different from a normal bad day. This drop had almost nothing to do with PayPal's actual business, which is doing fine. Q2 total payment volume hit $486.4 billion, up 10%, and the company even raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to around $5.38 a share. The problem is simpler than that. The only reason the stock ran was the takeover, and with the buyers gone, the reason to own it went with them.

📈 The Bull Case:

The core business is genuinely healthy, with payment volume up 10% and guidance raised.
A future bid isn't impossible, since the buyers could circle back if conditions shift.

📉 The Bear Case:

The catalyst is dead, and analysts are cutting targets, with Mizuho at $51 and Loop Capital at $50, both below Friday's close.
The five-year chart is still a wreck, down about 81%, so "cheap" here has been a trap before.

The Munch Take: Do not buy this one. The trade was the bid, and the bid is dead, which means you'd be buying a stock that just lost the only thing holding it up. My wife once kept a coupon for a store that closed down two years ago, insisting it might still be worth something someday. That coupon and this stock have a lot in common right now. Cheap is not a catalyst, and a falling knife does not care how good the payment volume looks. Sit this one out.

MARKET OVERVIEW

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📦 $AMZN Amazon rose 3.97% after Evercore ISI lifted its price target, betting that new AI shopping tools could give retail sales a real lift. When analysts start pricing in AI as a sales driver, the stock tends to follow.

👖 $GAP Gap popped 12.80% after tapping Michael Francis to run Old Navy starting in November. Investors clearly liked the idea of fresh leadership at the company's biggest brand.

🎰 $DKNG DraftKings gained 4.29% and Flutter climbed 7.13% after a court ruling knocked prediction markets like Kalshi, easing a real competitive threat to the traditional sportsbooks. One legal win took a rival off the board and both stocks celebrated.

🔐 $RBRK Rubrik sank 13.05% even after posting 38% revenue growth and raising its full-year outlook. Sometimes strong numbers still aren't enough when the stock was already priced for perfection.

💻 $MRVL Marvell tumbled 10.28% after its fiscal 2028 outlook came up short of the sky-high hopes set by its recent Google deal. Big expectations cut both ways, and this time they cut hard.

BIG NEWS

📉 Bitcoin Got Cold Water Thrown On Its Party

Bitcoin was cruising until the new Fed chair grabbed the mic. Right after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday, the odds of interest rates rising next month climbed to 49%. That’s up from 35% just a day earlier. That jump is basically the receipt for why stocks dropped and Bitcoin dumped.

Here's the plain-English version. Warsh went hawkish, meaning he made it clear inflation is still too hot and the Fed has "work to do" before it thinks about cutting rates. Higher rates are bad news for risk assets like Bitcoin, because when safe options like cash and government bonds pay more, investors have less reason to chase riskier bets. Bitcoin heard that message loud and clear and slid fast.

🎤 The catalyst: Warsh's hawkish speech pushed Fed rate-hike odds for next month up to 49%, spooking every risk asset at once.
📉 The numbers: Bitcoin swung from an overnight high near $81,455 down to about $76,877, closing near $77,557, a drop of roughly 3.4%.
⚠️ The risk: Around $481 million in crypto positions got liquidated, mostly bullish bets, and spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 9-day inflow streak with about $202 million heading out the door.

The Munch Take: We’re still bullish and like we said last week, if we get a retest of the $70,000 level, we would add to our position. Here’s what nobody is realizing: If you’re a long-term investor, none of this matters because eventually, rates will come down. Could that be in 12 months? 2 years? 3? Maybe. But eventually, it will happen. And when it does, just look at what stocks during the Covid boom. Be patient. These drops are opportunities.

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📉 The Speech That Could Move Everything

Pip Munch — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 08:06:00 +0000

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☕️ GM Munchers! It's Friday and I'm back from the cottage, where I successfully relaxed for almost four full minutes before checking the market.

On today’s menu:

📉 The Speech That Could Move Everything
⛳ Callaway's Stock Is Playing Way Better Than Its Ad Team
🐻 Build-A-Bear Got Mauled
🚀 Trump Just Endorsed Micron
🤑 Buy These Stocks Before August 31st

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,730	+0.72%
Nasdaq	26,541	+1.57%
Dow Jones	53,569	+0.20%
Bitcoin	~$80,000	+1.23%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 Warsh Takes The Podium: The Speech That Could Move Everything

It's Friday, so let's get you ready for the single biggest event of the week. At 10:00 a.m. ET this morning, Kevin Warsh gives his first-ever keynote as Fed Chair at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming. This is his debut on the most-watched stage in all of finance, and traders will parse every single word for clues about what the Fed will do next.

Here's why the stakes are so high. Warsh is walking into a genuinely ugly setup. Inflation is stuck in the mid-3s, nearly double the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is actually cracking, with the economy shedding jobs last month. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 last week before the Treasury stepped in to calm things down. Warsh has to thread all of that in about 20 minutes, and the September 16 rate decision is only weeks away.

🎯 Watch for surprise, not consensus. About 69% of fund managers expect a neutral, boring speech. That means any real lean, hawkish or dovish, could move stocks 2% to 3% fast.
🏦 September is the real prize. Markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut. Warsh's tone today is the tiebreaker for what actually happens in three weeks.
💵 Track yields, gold, and the dollar. The 2-year Treasury yield, the dollar index, and gold typically move hard in the two hours after he speaks. Those are your real-time read on how the market heard him.

The Munch Take: A brand new Fed chair's first big speech is always a wildcard, and this one lands with inflation hot, jobs weak, and the market sitting at record highs. That combination is exactly the kind of setup where a single sentence can send everything flying. Don't ruin your weekend by doing anything foolish. This is a day to sit, watch and think. Not to hit the panic button. Keeping an eye on prediction markets and their September Fed meeting predictions will be the easiest way to monitor what’s going on. Or just wait for us to update you on Monday.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

⛳ Callaway's Stock Is Playing Way Better Than Its Ad Team

$CALY Callaway has slipped about 3.5% this week after one of the weirdest ad ideas in recent golf memory. The company teamed up with golf content brand Good Good to promote a new co-branded Quantum driver, and the video showed a male golfer shoving a female golfer to the ground when she reached for his club. The internet did what the internet does. Both companies pulled the ad within hours and issued apologies, and Callaway's CEO admitted the company had actually approved the thing.

Here's the funny part. The stock is still up sharply this year, cruising along on real business strength while its marketing department set itself on fire. Callaway's core golf equipment sales grew 4.5% last quarter, with revenue from that segment hitting $430 million and margins widening. In other words, the stock has been a far better driver than anything Good Good filmed.

⛳ The core business is healthy: Golf equipment sales grew 4.5% last quarter, the actual engine behind this year's run.
📉 The ad damage looks minor: The stock only dipped about 2%, and trading volume stayed light, a sign investors saw noise, not a real problem.
🏌️ Watch the November read: Callaway's next earnings report and its PGA Tour partnership are where any real fallout would actually show up.

The Munch Take: We think this one is totally overblown. Could the ad have been better? Obviously, it was a genuinely terrible concept and everyone involved has already admitted as much. But the woke mob is coming for the whole company over a bad 20-second video that got yanked almost immediately, and the underlying business has not changed one bit. A light 2% dip on light volume tells you Wall Street agrees this is reputational noise, not a real dent. Either way, full disclosure, I'm a TaylorMade and Titleist guy, so none of this was ever going to change my bag.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💰️ Special Alert: Major Buy Alert Issued for August 31st (Via TradeSmith)

⚡ $CELH Celsius dropped 6.36% after Deutsche Bank downgraded it, pointing to deeper "fundamental challenges" for the energy drink maker. Who knew being in one of the most competitive industries in the world would create “challenges.”

🧸 $BBW Is nothing sacred anymore? Build-A-Bear got mauled for 27.26% after cutting its growth forecast sharply and showing its chief growth officer the door on the same day. Hard to keep the "growth" title when the growth just went missing.

🔌 $BBY Best Buy fell 4.44% even after beating estimates and lifting its outlook, because investors zeroed in on thin profit margins once tariff refunds were stripped out. A beat means little when the underlying margins look shaky. The stock is still up 20% YTD.

🛍️ $BURL Burlington Stores slid 7.64% after quarterly sales came up short and its next-quarter guidance landed below what Wall Street wanted. Discount shoppers showing up is great, but not if the register totals still miss.

🌳 $DLTR Even Dollar Tree’s stock is getting discounted. It fell 3.99% despite beating on earnings, as a soft third-quarter outlook and squeezed margins overshadowed the good number. Investors clearly cared more about what's coming than what just happened.

💵 $DG Dollar General rose 2.55% after topping estimates and raising its full-year earnings outlook. In a rough day for discount retail, it was the one name that actually gave investors something to smile about.

BIG NEWS

🚀 Trump Just Endorsed Micron

A shoutout from my third-grade teacher had me walking on air for days. Yesterday Micron got the presidential version and the stock shrugged like a teenager being complimented in front of their friends.

Trump praised the memory-chip maker's plan to invest $10 billion over the next decade in new U.S. research labs, calling it "one of the hottest companies in the world" and crediting his own policies for the wave of investment. That $10 billion sits on top of a previously announced $250 billion U.S. commitment through 2035. Funny enough, the stock actually closed slightly lower on the day, shrugging off the praise entirely.

The bigger picture is genuinely wild. Micron has been on an absolute tear, riding the AI memory boom as demand for its high-bandwidth memory chips, the specialized parts that feed Nvidia's AI hardware, keeps outrunning supply. Analysts expect that memory shortage to last until at least 2028, which is exactly the kind of pricing power that turns a cyclical chip company into a market darling.

🔥 The run has been enormous. Micron has climbed sharply this year and more than tripled over the past 12 months on AI memory demand.
📉 It's off its highs. The stock has pulled back from its all-time high, which is the setup that has some bargain hunters interested.
⚠️ The bar is now sky-high. Trading near record levels leaves little room for error, and any earnings miss could trigger a fast drop.

The Munch Take: A pullback from all-time highs on a company with real, sold-out demand is exactly the kind of setup we pay attention to, and Micron fits our whole "sell the shovels" AI thesis perfectly. That said, two honest caveats. We couldn't confirm whether Trump personally holds Micron in his latest filings, so take the endorsement at face value and nothing more. And a stock up this much has already priced in a lot of good news, so this is a name we'd want on a real dip, not at the top of a 12-month moonshot.

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📉 Inflation Just Refused To Die

Pip Munch — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:05:00 +0000

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☕️ GM Munchers! Last day at the cottage, which means I get to return to my natural habitat: three monitors and a concerning amount of coffee. My wife is thrilled to have the deck back to herself.

On today’s menu:

📉 Inflation Just Refused To Die
🖥️ Nvidia Broke Every Record & Still Dropped
📹️ Snapchat, Intuit & Zoom Make Headlines
📱 Meta Just Paid $17 Billion
👟 Nike Just Hit A 12 Year Low

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,675	-0.02%
Nasdaq	26,130	-0.08%
Dow Jones	53,463	-0.21%
Bitcoin	~$78,423	-0.13%

BREAKING NEWS

📊 Inflation Just Refused To Die

My wife was right. Our grocery bill isn’t getting cheaper anytime soon.

The Fed's favorite inflation gauge came in hot yesterday. July PCE, the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely, hit 3.7% year over year, a touch above the 3.6% economists expected. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, held at 3.3%, its second-highest reading since late 2024. That means inflation is still running at nearly double the Fed's 2% target.

Here's the tricky part for the Fed. Core inflation has now printed 3.3% in April, 3.4% in May, 3.3% in June, and 3.3% again in July. That's four straight months of basically no progress. At the same time, the July jobs report was weak, meaning the Fed is stuck between an economy that's cooling and prices that refuse to cool with it. That's the classic setup that makes rate decisions genuinely hard.

🔥 The number: Headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, both stuck well above the Fed's 2% goal.
🏦 The market are torn: Traders are pricing only a 57% chance of a rate hike in 2026. That’s basically a coin flip.
⛰️ Warsh speaks Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech now carries even more weight, since this report gave him a real reason to sound cautious.

The Munch Take: You need to own assets or get left behind. That’s the only actionable takeaway you need from this. Cash is continuing to lose value and nobody is coming to save you. Sticky inflation is exactly the backdrop that has kept us interested in gold and Bitcoin all year. Friday's Warsh speech is now the thing to watch.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🖥️ Nvidia Broke Every Record And The Stock Still Threw A Tantrum

Nvidia just did something almost cartoonish. The company reported $96.2 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 106% from a year ago, its highest ever. Yes, they’re now making more than $1 billion per day. Crazy. And yet, the first thing the stock did was drop 4%.

Here's why a monster beat still spooked people at first. When a stock has run up as much as Nvidia has, expectations get so high that even record numbers can feel like a letdown. Traders call this "priced for perfection," meaning the good news was already baked into the stock before the report even came out. But then the mood flipped. Once the CFO started walking through guidance on the call, the stock actually turned higher, jumping around 5%. The reason was the outlook. Nvidia guided next quarter to about $108 billion in revenue, well above what Wall Street wanted to see.

💰 The number: Record $96.2 billion in revenue, up 106% from last year, beating expectations across the board.
🏗️ Data centers are still the engine: That business alone brought in $89 billion, up 117%, powered by the AI buildout.
🔮 The guide is what mattered: Nvidia expects roughly $108 billion next quarter, a sign the AI spending boom is not slowing down yet.

Here's what this means for the whole market. Nvidia is the single most important stock in the AI story, so its results act like a report card for the entire boom. A strong guide like this tells investors that the giant tech companies are still pouring money into AI chips, which is good news for the whole chip sector and the broader market that has been riding the AI wave all year.

The Munch Take: CEO Jensen Huang said "AI has reached its inflection point" and that "compute is revenue," which is exactly the kind of confident line you'd expect from a guy whose company just doubled its sales. The initial drop and quick bounce tells you everything about this stock right now. The business is genuinely firing on all cylinders, but expectations are so sky-high that even perfection barely clears the bar. As long as the AI spending keeps flowing, the shovel-sellers like Nvidia keep winning. The day that spending slows is the day this whole story changes, and yesterday was not that day.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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📹 $ZM Zoom Communications dropped 7.03% after guiding third-quarter results below what Wall Street wanted to see. Turns out the market always hates Zoom meetings.

🧾 $INTU Intuit fell 3.24% after its outlook for fiscal 2027 landed short of expectations. The tax-software giant gave investors a number they weren't thrilled about, and the stock paid for it.

👻 $SNAP Snap sank 8.45% after Pennsylvania filed suit, claiming Snapchat's design hooks minors and puts kids in harm's way. With Meta settling its own child-safety case the same week, this is a theme investors are watching closely now.

🧬 $BHVN Biohaven jumped 17.87% after licensing an experimental epilepsy drug to SK Biopharmaceuticals in a global deal. One well-structured licensing agreement can move a biotech stock in a hurry.

🍇 $SJM J.M. Smucker rose 4.26% after fiscal first-quarter revenue came in ahead of estimates. Turns out jam, coffee, and pet food still add up to a solid quarter.

BIG NEWS

📱 Meta Just Paid $17 Billion & The Stock Went Up Anyway

$META Meta agreed to pay up to $17.1 billion to settle a massive lawsuit from 51 states and territories, accusing the company of designing Facebook and Instagram to addict kids and harm their mental health. It's the largest state consumer protection settlement in U.S. history outside of the Big Tobacco cases of the 1990s. And yet the stock actually rose about 1% on the news.

Here's why a giant fine turned into a green day. Wall Street hates uncertainty more than it hates a bill. This trial was set to run into October with Mark Zuckerberg potentially taking the stand, and a settlement wipes all of that risk off the table at once. Meta will book roughly $10 billion of the cost as a third quarter expense, a number the company can easily absorb given it generates that much in profit in a matter of weeks.

💰 The number: Up to $17.1 billion total, though Meta only pays the full amount if TikTok and YouTube also settle and add their own teen safeguards.
⏱️ The real cost is the rules: Meta must add a two-hour daily limit for users under 18, hide likes on minors' posts, and block extreme beauty filters.
📉 Why the stock shrugged: Removing the risk of a dramatic public trial mattered more to investors than the dollar figure itself.

The Munch Take: A $17 billion fine that makes a stock go up tells you everything about how Wall Street thinks. The market wasn't scared of the money. It was scared of Zuckerberg on a witness stand for six weeks, and that fear just evaporated. Whether these new teen safety rules actually dent Meta's engagement numbers is the real long-term question, and that one won't get answered for a while.

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📉 Worst Day In 30 Years

Pip Munch — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:03:00 +0000

$2 trillion: The October IPO Wall Street Is Whispering About

SpaceX just set the record for the largest IPO in history.

It may hold that record for about eight more weeks.

According to the Financial Times, investors now expect the AI company Anthropic to go public in October at a valuation of $2 trillion or more.

That would make it the biggest public debut ever.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are already running the book.

And here's the part that matters for you...

...almost nobody outside Silicon Valley can buy a single pre-IPO share.

See the 3 public stocks positioned for the filing.

☕️ GM Munchers! Day two of the cottage trip, day two of pretending my phone is off. My wife has stopped believing me. Tensions are higher than trade negotiations between the U.S and Canada.

On today’s menu:

📉 Iran, Canada & Nvidia's About To Make It Interesting
🏀 Dick's Just Had Its Worst Day In History
👀 Nancy Pelosi Just Bought This Stock
🤑 This stock Is Up 300% This Year

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,677	+0.32%
Nasdaq	26,151	+0.66%
Dow Jones	53,577	+0.30%
Bitcoin	~$78,700	-0.34%

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Iran Backed Off The Ledge, Canada Did Not & Nvidia's About To Make It Interesting

I used to think the Kardashians were peak entertainment, but our politicians are giving them a real run for their money.

Two geopolitical fights this week, two completely different endings. Trump spent the weekend threatening "economic D-Day" on any country trading with Iran, then yesterday chose economic pressure over new military action. Fewer bombs gave the market a reason to cheer, and oil dropped more than 5% on the relief to $81 a barrel.

Canada got no such mercy. New 50% tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel take effect January 1, 2027, stacking on top of the 50% tariffs already hitting Canadian goods since Saturday.

Maple syrup lovers aside, the market shrugged off Canada and rallied on Iran instead. Buckle up though, because Nvidia reports earnings tonight after the bell, and this one could shake everything.

🖥️ The number to watch: Wall Street expects around $91 billion in revenue tonight, and Nvidia has beaten its own guidance for 13 straight quarters, though the size of the beat keeps shrinking.
🇨🇳 China is the wildcard: Nvidia's guidance assumes zero data center revenue from China, so any actual China sales would be pure upside nobody's pricing in yet.
⚡ The whole chip trade is riding on it: Nvidia is the single most important stock in the AI story, so a strong guide could reignite the rally while a weak one drags the entire sector down.
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The Munch Take: Funny how the scarier-sounding threat cooled off while the quieter fight with Canada just keeps escalating unnoticed. None of that will matter much after the closing bell tonight, though, because Nvidia's number is about to decide whether this chip rebound has real legs or whether yesterday’s pop was just investors getting optimistic right before a reality check.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🏀 Dick's Just Had Its Worst Day In History

$DKS Dick's Sporting Goods now knows the heartbreak of every guy who walks into one of its stores and swears he would've gone pro if it weren't for his bad knee. The stock just had its worst single-day drop in the company’s history, crashing 30% after badly missing Wall Street's expectations and slashing its full-year outlook.

Adjusted earnings came in at $3.53 a share, well below the $3.78 analysts expected.
Revenue hit $5.59 billion, just short of estimates despite jumping 53% from a year ago.

So, what’s causing the issue? Kids spending too much time on their iPads and not buying footballs? Actually, no. The core Dick's stores are doing fine, posting solid 4.9% sales growth. The problem is Foot Locker, the shoe chain Dick's bought for roughly $2.5 billion last year. Foot Locker's comparable sales fell 3.6% as the athletic footwear market turned unexpectedly promotional, forcing Dick's to cut prices to stay competitive. That weakness dragged full-year profit guidance down to $11 to $12 a share, well below the $14.20 Wall Street had pencilled in.

So, is this a buying opportunity?

📈 The Bull Case:

The original Dick's business remains genuinely strong, growing sales even while absorbing a messy acquisition.
Management still sounds confident about Foot Locker's long-term potential, calling the current struggles conditions tied to a tough footwear market, not a broken brand.
A stock down this much this fast sometimes overshoots the actual damage, especially when the core business isn't the problem.

📉 The Bear Case:

Foot Locker was a $2.5 billion bet that is now actively losing money and dragging down results the company didn't have before the acquisition.
Management got caught off guard by how promotional the footwear market turned, raising real questions about how well they understood what they were buying.
A stock can stay cheap for a long time when Wall Street is busy rebuilding trust in guidance that just missed by this much.

The Munch Take: Buying a struggling competitor and then getting dragged down by that same competitor's problems is not exactly the turnaround story shareholders were promised. Whether the core Dick's business is strong enough to eventually absorb and fix Foot Locker, or whether this acquisition becomes a multi-year headache, is not something yesterday’s selloff actually answers. We expect to see a relief rally from here but support around $100 is where this starts to get interesting.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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💉 $MRNA Moderna popped 14.36% after Wolfe Research turned bullish on the stock. The firm's reasoning was simple: investors cannot stop talking about that cancer vaccine, and the excitement is feeding on itself.

💻 $AMD AMD ran up 4.91% after Raymond James slapped a Strong Buy rating on it. One well-timed upgrade was enough to pull buyers back into the chip name.

🔐 $RBRK Rubrik pulled back 5.48% as traders cashed out ahead of the cybersecurity firm's earnings. When people sell before the report even lands, that usually says something about the nerves going in.

🎯 $TGT Target fell 3.78% after critics slammed a Halloween costume they said was racist. We think that claim is a bit of a stretch but the stock was damaged anyways.

⚡ $BE Bloom Energy jumped 6.58% after a filing revealed Nancy Pelosi had taken positions tied to the stock. Her trades have basically become their own market signal at this point, whether that is fair or not.

TRADING SUCCESS

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The Trade War Is Heating Up

Pip Munch — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 08:05:00 +0000

Bigger Than SpaceX (and Almost nobody can buy in)

SpaceX just set the record for the largest IPO in history.

It may hold that record for about eight more weeks.

According to the Financial Times, investors now expect the AI company Anthropic to go public in October at a valuation of $2 trillion or more.

That would make it the biggest public debut ever.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan are already running the book.

And here's the part that matters for you...

...almost nobody outside Silicon Valley can buy a single pre-IPO share.

See the 3 public stocks positioned for the filing.

☕️ GM Munchers! I'm at a cottage with my wife right now and snuck away to write this from what I am pretty sure is a closet. Market addiction confirmed. Marriage status pending.

On today’s menu:

🔥 The Trade War Is Heating Up
🚜 The Tractor Stock Nobody's Watching
📈 Bitcoin Just Touched $80K For The First Time Since May
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🤑 Nvidia Employees Are Crazy Rich

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,652	-0.28%
Nasdaq	25,980	-0.76%
Dow Jones	53,417	+0.26%
Bitcoin	~$78,700	+1.27%

BREAKING NEWS

🔥 The Trade War Is Heating Up

Yesterday didn't just bring more Canada drama, it brought a second front entirely. While the Canada fight keeps escalating, Bloomberg reported the U.S. is also set to slap an additional 7.5% tariff on China, tied to allegations Beijing is flooding the world with more manufactured goods than demand justifies. Two separate trade wars, both heating up on the same day.

Let’s start with Canada. Trump announced yesterday that tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel are jumping to 50%, effective January 1, 2027. That stacks on top of the 50% tariffs already in effect since Saturday on Canadian dairy, alcohol, and building materials. Prime Minister Carney has set Canada's own retaliatory tariffs to hit September 8, and Ontario has already pulled American liquor off shelves and canceled a $100 million Starlink contract.

Now China. This new 7.5% tariff would push total U.S. duties on Chinese goods to around 20%, a level Beijing has previously said it's willing to tolerate under the current trade truce. The timing is what makes it interesting. This surfaces just weeks before a planned September summit between Trump and Xi, and the broader U.S.-China truce itself expires November 10.

🚗 Canada's auto tariffs: 50% on cars, trucks, parts, and steel starting January 2027, on top of tariffs already in effect since Saturday.
📅 Canada's deadline: Retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa kick in September 8.
🇨🇳 China's new number: A fresh 7.5% tariff would push total China duties to around 20%, right before the Trump-Xi summit next month.
⏳ China's clock: The existing U.S.-China trade truce expires November 10, adding real pressure to that meeting.

The Munch Take: Running two trade wars on two continents at once is either a real show of strength or somebody in the tariff department needs a vacation. We've seen this movie enough times to know how it ends. The can gets kicked, the deadline quietly slides, and nothing major actually happens, which is exactly why the market barely blinked at the news. Canada's September 8 deadline and China's November 10 truce expiration are the two dates worth actually watching.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🚜 The Tractor Stock Nobody's Watching

$DE John Deere closed at almost $650 yesterday, up an absurd 16,086.75% since its earliest trading days. Nobody's talking about it because everyone's staring at chips and chatbots. When the whole crowd is looking left at AI, sometimes the real move is looking right.

Here's the twist nobody expects. This run isn't really about tractors right now. Deere's traditional farm equipment business is actually struggling, with large agriculture sales down double digits as farmers deal with tight budgets and rising costs. What's carrying the stock is Deere's construction and forestry division, which is riding the exact same AI infrastructure boom everyone else is chasing, just from a completely different angle. Building all those data centers requires bulldozers, excavators, and heavy equipment, and Deere makes a lot of that gear too. The company also just posted its fifth straight quarter of beating expectations on both revenue and earnings.

📈 The Bull Case:

Construction equipment sales are riding the AI data center boom directly, with that segment up double digits while old-school farm equipment struggles.
Management called 2026 the bottom of the agriculture downturn, meaning the weakest part of the business may already be turning a corner.
Deere keeps beating Wall Street's estimates quarter after quarter, and it raised its full-year profit forecast again this quarter.

📉 The Bear Case:

The stock trades at a P/E near 36, well above its historical norm, meaning a lot of good news is already priced in.
Large agriculture equipment demand is still forecast to drop 15% to 20% this year, and low commodity prices put a real ceiling on how fast that recovers.
Tariffs and rising input costs are squeezing farmer budgets further, and any stumble in the construction rebound would remove Deere's main growth engine right now.

The Munch Take: How much does this thing have left to run? Genuinely hard to say at a P/E this rich, but the setup is interesting precisely because nobody's paying attention to it. Everyone's fighting over the same five AI chip stocks while a 200-year-old tractor company quietly became a backdoor way to play the exact same data center buildout. That's usually when it's worth taking a second look, not when everyone else already has.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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✈️ $EXPE Expedia Group gained 5.47% after Evercore ISI raised its price target to $430. Sometimes all it takes is one analyst deciding your stock deserves a bigger number.

🏠 $Z Zillow climbed 3.26% on a proposed FTC order that would keep its rental-listing partnership with Redfin intact. A regulatory scare that fizzles out is basically a gift to the stock.

🚗 $TSLA Tesla slipped 3.83% even after winning approval to run up to 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada over the next year. Good news, wrong direction, apparently investors had other things on their minds.

💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers Health sank 7.99% after Visa flagged a rise in customer disputes tied to its weight loss subscriptions. Nothing spooks a subscription stock like customers asking for their money back.

🪙 $COIN Coinbase fell 3.76% despite rolling out a new service letting investors trade U.S. stocks directly on its crypto network. Launching something new doesn't always buy you a good day in the market.

MARKET NEWS

📈 Bitcoin Just Touched $80K For The First Time Since May

Bitcoin flirted with $80,000 yesterday, its highest level since May, after ripping more than 20% in just seven trading days. Just two weeks ago, this thing was sitting around $63,000. That's a genuinely violent move, and it didn't come from nowhere.

The catalyst was the Treasury. When the Treasury announced it would double its long-term bond buybacks back on August 19, yields dropped, the dollar hit a three-month low, and money went hunting for a new home. Bitcoin ETFs then posted their best week of inflows all year, and short sellers got squeezed hard, adding fuel on top of fuel. Trump's public push for the CLARITY Act added another layer of optimism on top of all that.

💵 The trigger: Treasury's bond buyback announcement sent yields lower and pushed money into risk assets.
📈 The confirmation: Bitcoin ETFs logged their strongest inflow week of 2026, a sign real institutional money is showing up, not just retail excitement.
🎯 The next test: $79,000 to $80,000 is a real resistance zone, and some of this move came from short sellers being forced to cover, not fresh buying.

The Munch Take: We've been bullish on Bitcoin for months and have been buying steadily the whole way through the June bloodbath and everything since. We're not chasing this move. A run this fast, this far, this fast usually earns itself a breather, and we'd rather buy a real pullback or a retest of $70,000 than pay up at the top of a 20% weekly spike. Still all in on the thesis. Just not adding at these exact prices.

TRADING SUCCESS

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🇺🇲 This politician just bought Bitcoin.
🤑 Nvidia employees are crazy rich.
🙏 Quote of the day.

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BREAKING: Trump Just Bought These Stocks

Pip Munch — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:33:00 +0000

The AI Boom Has a Choke Point. Three Companies Sit On It.

Everyone's buying AI stocks. Almost nobody's asking what happens when the build hits a wall.

Because it will. Not a chip shortage this time — cooling capacity, memory supply, network throughput. The unglamorous parts that decide how fast anything gets built.

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☕️ GM Munchers! I hope your weekend was as blissful as mine. I spent Saturday in the backyard doing absolutely nothing productive, then somehow missed dinner at my in-laws on Sunday, a scheduling failure my wife assures me was "extremely convenient." May that same good luck follow us into the market this week.

On today’s menu:

📅 Monday Reset: Nvidia, The Fed & Iran
📊 Trump's Just Made Over 1,000 Trades
🚛 Tesla Is Releasing Something New?
🇨🇦 The Trade War Is Back
👀 Is It Time To Buy Nvidia?

Friday’s numbers:

S&P 500	7,674	+0.43%
Nasdaq	26,180	+0.43%
Dow Jones	53,277	+0.98%
Bitcoin	~$76,700	+2.07%

BREAKING NEWS

📅 Monday Reset: Nvidia, The Fed & Iran

It's Monday, so let's get you caught up before the market opens. This isn't a quiet week. Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday, the Fed's favorite inflation number drops Friday, and the Fed's own boss gives his first big speech of the year on the same day. Add in a fresh escalation with Iran over the weekend, and this is genuinely one of the busier stretches of the summer.

Start with the weekend news. Iran seized a tanker near Qeshm Island on Thursday, its first confirmed seizure since June. Weekly ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz actually stayed critically low, 73 transits last week versus 91 the week before, even as Iran granted a handful of Iraqi oil tankers narrow permission to pass through. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds a press conference today and will lay out Trump's promised "economic isolation" plan against Iran, so expect oil headlines all week.

🖥️ Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close. This is the single biggest earnings report of the summer. Chip and AI stocks have wobbled the past two weeks, and Nvidia's results and guidance will decide whether that wobble was noise or the start of something bigger.
📊 Core PCE lands Friday morning. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and economists expect it to show inflation still running around 3.3%, well above the Fed's 2% target.
⛰️ Jackson Hole runs Thursday through Saturday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first keynote as chair Friday morning, the same day as the PCE report. Traders will parse every word for clues on September's rate decision.

The Munch Take: Having Nvidia earnings, a major inflation report, and the Fed chair's biggest speech of the year all land in the same 48 hours is either terrible scheduling or the market's way of ripping the band-aid off all at once. Toss a fresh Iran headline into that mix and you have a week that can move fast in either direction. Buckle up, because by Friday afternoon we'll actually know a lot more than we do right now.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

📊 Trump's Trading Account Made Over 1,000 Trades In One Month

Somebody's investment account had a genuinely wild June, and it belongs to the President. Trump's latest financial disclosure revealed just over 1,000 stock transactions in a single month, ranging from $78.1 million to $263.1 million in total activity.

The two names getting attention are Meta and Berkshire Hathaway. On June 18, Trump's accounts sold between $1 million and $5 million each of Meta and Motorola, while buying similar-sized stakes in Berkshire Hathaway, Cintas, Visa, and Mastercard on that exact same day. That timing lines up with a market selloff the day before, tied to uncertainty after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Stocks bounced back June 18, and Trump's accounts bought right into that recovery.

🔄 The scale is the real story. Over 1,000 trades in one month is far more consistent with a systematic, computer-managed approach than a handful of personal stock picks.
💰 The biggest single trade was a sale. Trump's accounts sold $5 million to $25 million of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF on June 22, then used part of that same day to buy Home Depot and Fidelity National Information Services.
🛡️ Defense stocks got choppy too. Trump bought and sold Palantir multiple times through the month, including a big sale on June 18, the same day the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a peace deal days earlier on June 14.
🏛️ The White House says hands off. A spokesman maintains the president's assets sit in a trust run by his children and that there are "no conflicts of interest," pointing to the sheer trade volume as evidence of an automated strategy rather than personal picks.

The Munch Take: Whether or not Trump personally picked a single one of these trades, a sitting president's investment account buying and selling is the kind of thing that is always going to raise eyebrows regardless of who is managing it. The trust structure and trade volume make the "hands off" explanation genuinely plausible. It doesn't make the optics any less awkward. Either way, we’ll do a deeper dive on some of these stocks and ETFs in the coming days.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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🚛 $TSLA Tesla popped 5.14% on news it will show off its electric semi truck in Europe next month. The reveal isn't happening yet, but investors already like what they're picturing.

🛒 $BJ BJ's Wholesale Club jumped 5.94% after topping earnings estimates and raising its outlook for the rest of the year. Members clearly kept swiping their cards.

💉 $MRNA Moderna bounced back 8.86% as investors circled back to the company's cancer vaccine trial, buying the dip after some profit-taking a day earlier cooled the initial excitement.

🪙 $CIFR Cipher Digital dropped 8.40% even while crypto broadly rallied, as investors stayed focused on the Bitcoin miner's expensive data center buildout and its $6 billion pile of debt.

💻 $MRVL Marvell slipped 5.57% as the market digested a deal giving Google the option to buy up to roughly 58.97 million shares, worth about $12 billion. A big vote of confidence from Google still came with some dilution baggage attached.

MARKET NEWS

🇨🇦 Carney Just Said The Words Nobody Wanted To Hear: Trade War

The Canada deal we told you was close just fell apart. Trade talks collapsed late Friday night, and new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian hockey sticks, building materials, liquor, and clothing took effect at midnight heading into Saturday. Prime Minister Mark Carney called it "a miscalculation" Saturday morning, blaming "uneconomic" and "unfair" demands from the Trump administration.

Carney didn't stop at words. He said Canada will match the new tariffs "dollar for dollar," undoing months of goodwill after Canada had dropped most of its retaliatory tariffs last year. This is now a real, mutual trade war again, not just a threat hanging over talks.

🏒 The list is specific: Hockey sticks, building materials, liquor, and clothing are getting hit with the new 50% U.S. duties.
🔁 Canada is matching, not backing down: Carney's dollar-for-dollar pledge reverses weeks of de-escalation.
💰 A budget response is coming: Carney pointed to this fall's Budget 2026 as Canada's answer for businesses caught in the crossfire.

For currency traders, USD/CAD had been drifting lower for two weeks, from around 1.392 on August 11 to roughly 1.379 by August 20, as markets priced in a deal. That collapse happened after Friday's close, so this week is the real test. Trade wars typically weaken the currency of the country getting hit hardest, so watch for USD/CAD to reverse and push back toward 1.39 or higher if this drags on.

The Munch Take: We were cautiously optimistic about this deal two weeks ago. Carney just proved that optimism was premature. The currency market hasn't fully repriced this yet, which makes USD/CAD one of the more interesting charts to watch this week.

TRADING SUCCESS

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What Smart Money Is Buying Next

Pip Munch — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 09:03:00 +0000

Where Money Could Hide In AI Next

Most investors are still crowded into the same mega-cap names. But the next leg may not belong to the household names everyone already owns — it may belong to the suppliers, enablers, and software businesses quietly benefiting while Wall Street keeps expanding AI budgets.

Nine of them are in my report this month. Take a look at the list.

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BREAKING NEWS

₿ Trump Wants America To Win The Crypto Race & Bitcoin Is Roaring

President Trump just put crypto back in the spotlight, and Bitcoin didn't just notice, it exploded. At a White House meeting with top crypto executives, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at giving the industry clearer rules and making it easier for big investors and funds to jump in. He also made the message bigger than crypto itself: the U.S. needs to stay ahead of China in the race to lead the world's crypto industry.

But the Bitcoin comments were the real headline. When asked whether the U.S. plans to build a much larger Bitcoin stash, Trump said it had "certainly been talked about," adding that it could help take pressure off the dollar. That's not a promise Washington is about to empty the Treasury and go shopping for Bitcoin. It does show the idea is very much alive inside the White House, and combined with a Treasury bond buyback announcement earlier in the week, it lit a real fire under the coin. Bitcoin has climbed above $75,000, its strongest run in months, effectively erasing about three months of declines in three days.

🏛️ The rulebook talk is real. The CLARITY Act would draw clear lines between what the SEC regulates and what the CFTC regulates in crypto, something the industry has wanted for years.
₿ The catalyst stacked up fast. Treasury's bond buyback news, Trump's Bitcoin comments, and a massive short squeeze that liquidated over $3 billion in crypto shorts all hit within days of each other.
🌍 China is the bigger picture. Trump isn't just talking about clearer crypto rules domestically. He wants America to stay ahead of China in leading the global crypto industry.

The Munch Take: We've been saying we're bullish on Bitcoin for a long time now, through the June bloodbath and every "is it dead" headline since. This is exactly why we've said timing the market is a losing game, in crypto or anywhere else. Nobody can call the exact bottom or the exact day the turn happens, and anyone who sold near the lows just watched three months of pain get erased in three days. Hats off to anyone who held through it with us. This is a genuinely good stretch, and the bigger question now is whether Washington actually turns this talk into real policy.

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STORY OF THE DAY

🍿 The $10,000 AMC Bet That Turned Into A Movie Ticket

Remember when AMC was one of the hottest stocks on Wall Street?

In 2021, retail investors piled into the movie-theater chain and sent the stock soaring. Fast-forward a few years, and that excitement has completely disappeared. A $10,000 investment made near the peak would now be worth just a few dollars.

But here's where the story gets interesting: AMC's business is starting to improve. The company had its strongest quarter in years, bringing in about $1.6 billion in sales, while profits jumped and it generated $190 million in cash.

The problem is that shareholders are still paying the price for AMC's huge debt burden. The company has been issuing shares to raise money and reduce debt, pushing shares outstanding from about 513 million at the end of 2025 to nearly 893 million by July 2026. That flood of new shares has also weighed on AMC's stock price, because every new share reduces the value of the existing shares.

So, is AMC a buying opportunity?

Not yet. The turnaround is real, but the balance sheet still isn't strong enough to make AMC an attractive long-term investment. Investors are better off waiting for the company to prove that it can keep generating cash, reduce debt and stop relying so heavily on new shares. But who knows? If AMC can finally get its debt under control and keep the business growing, this could turn into a much better bet going forward.

The Munch Take: AMC's actual business has genuinely gotten better but the debt is still the thing choking it. A big chunk of every dollar coming in the door has to go toward paying down that debt pile instead of opening new theaters, upgrading seats, or doing anything that actually grows the company. On top of that, AMC has kept raising cash by selling more shares, which means every existing shareholder now owns a smaller slice of a pizza that already wasn't very big. This is the frustrating part of the AMC story. The operations are trending the right way, but the balance sheet is eating most of the credit before shareholders ever see it.

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The 3 tickers behind Elon's next launch

Pip Munch — Sat, 22 Aug 2026 08:33:00 +0000

Dear Reader,

I've given away a lot of research over the years.

I've never had more people ask for one report than this one.

Insider sources say Elon has spent two years building a secret device inside Tesla's facilities...

...one he claims will be "10x bigger than the largest product in history."

The reveal is expected Sept 21.

And today I'm giving you the names and ticker symbols of 3 stocks positioned for it.

👉️ Click here to see all 3 tickers, free of charge.

BREAKING NEWS

🚀 SpaceX Climbed Back Above Its IPO Price, But The Real Story Is Still Ahead

Even rockets have off days, and this one bounced back fast. $SPCX SpaceX slipped under its $135 IPO price again Thursday, closing at $134.00, down 4.05%. The trigger wasn't a bad headline or a weak report. It was math. Roughly 319 million shares, worth close to $47 billion, became eligible for trading Thursday, the second wave in a staggered lockup schedule set to eventually free most of the company's float. The stock climbed back over the line Friday, gaining just over 2% to close near $137.

Here's why Thursday's dip is worth watching. This exact stock shrugged off a far bigger unlock earlier this month, when 911.5 million shares hit the market and the stock still climbed 6%. This time, a smaller unlock still dragged the price below its offering level, which hints buyer appetite may be cooling at these prices, even if Friday's bounce eased some of that concern.

🔓 The unlock: About 319 million shares, worth roughly $47 billion, became tradable Thursday.
📉 The dip: SpaceX closed at $134.00 Thursday, back under the $135 IPO price.
📈 The bounce: Shares climbed just over 2% Friday, closing back above $135.
📅 More is coming: A much bigger 1.3 billion share release lines up with third quarter earnings in November, followed by the full lockup expiration in December. Elon Musk's roughly 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027.

The Munch Take: A stock can run a great business and still get pushed around simply because more people suddenly have the option to sell. Here's where we actually stand on this one. Anything under $100 is genuinely interesting to us, and that's the level where we'd start buying. Whether it gets there is a real maybe, nobody knows, and we're not pretending to. Outside of that, we're not touching this name unless it runs up hard first and then gives back a real chunk of that move, because right now this stock is still trading in no man's land as a freshly public company with more unlock waves still coming. Ask us again in ten years whether sitting on our hands here was the right call. For now, that's exactly where we're sitting.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

💡 Looking For An AI Stock? This One's Worth A Look

Have you been searching for a good AI stock? Here's an interesting one you might not know about. Somebody has to build the cables that let AI chips talk to each other, and that somebody just had the best quarter of its life.

$LITE Lumentum gave a little back yesterday, closing at $866.71, down 1.43%, after a huge jump on Thursday when the company reported record earnings. Lumentum made over a billion dollars in one quarter for the first time ever. Revenue hit $1.01 billion, up 109% from last year. That came just days after a bunch of AI-related stocks had dropped about 10% together.

Here's what Lumentum actually makes. The company builds lasers and small parts that move data around inside giant AI computer buildings called data centers. Think of it like the wiring that lets all the AI chips talk to each other and share information fast. As AI keeps growing, companies need faster and faster connections between computers, and that is exactly what Lumentum sells. The company is also keeping more money from each sale now too, since a key profit number crossed 50% for the first time ever.

💰 The number: Revenue hit $1.01 billion, up 109% from last year, the company's first ever billion-dollar quarter.
🔌 The business: Lumentum makes lasers and small parts that connect AI chips together inside huge data centers.
📉 The dip that came first: AI-related stocks fell about 10% earlier in the week before this earnings report changed the mood.
📈 The bounce: Shares jumped 6.24% Thursday, then eased back 1.43% yesterday to close at $866.71, so buyers kept most of the gain.

The Munch Take: So is this a buy right now? We don’t think so, at least not yet. This stock has already gone on a massive run, and we think the real long-term winners in AI will be the companies selling the shovels, not the ones building the chatbots themselves. Lumentum, or a company just like it, is exactly the kind of stock we would want to own. Right now, though, it just feels a little too hot to chase.

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