Welcome back!

And just like that the Iran selloff is over. We’re far from actually “over” though, with Pakistan working to arrange a 2nd round of U.S. and Iran negotiations after last weekend’s talks went nowhere. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz went into effect on Monday morning.

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For now, it seems like the “negotiate/take hard stances over the weekend” positioning is probably we’re heading for yet another weekend. The Banks reported solid numbers to kick off earnings season, so it seems like broadly the U.S. economy is quite fine.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at the earnings still to come this week:

• Wednesday: ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC Financial Services, J.B. Hunt

• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Pepsico, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp

• Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, State Street, Regions Financial, Ally Financial

Here’s a look at economic data set to be released this week:

• Wednesday: Import price index (2.4%), Import price index minus fuel, Empire State manufacturing survey, Home builder confidence index (37), Fed Beige Book 

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (12.4), Industrial production (-0.1%), Capacity utilization (76.3%)

Earnings Corner 💸 

• Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 2.12% ) Beat on both revenue ($17.23B vs. $16.97B) and EPS ($17.55 vs. $16.49) Revenue strength was driven by record equities trading and a rebound in investment banking. The company collected more advisory fees as higher market volatility drove increased client activity and dealmaking. EPS benefited from strong revenue but results were partially offset by weakness in fixed income trading and higher credit provisions. Trading and deal activity remain strong in volatile markets, but some underlying softness and rising credit costs weighed on sentiment. Management struck a more cautious tone, noting geopolitical uncertainty could weigh on dealmaking and market activity.

• JPMorgan Chase $JPM ( ▼ 0.82% ) reported a beat on both revenue ($50.5B vs. $49.2B) and EPS ($5.94 vs. $5.45). Results were driven by strong trading and investment banking activity, with fixed income trading rising on elevated market volatility that boosted client activity, alongside a rebound in dealmaking lifting fees. Lower then expected credit costs also helped support earnings, signaling consumers and businesses remain relatively healthy. The bank slightly lowered net interest income outlook, pointing to some pressure from lower rates. Management flagged a more uncertain macro backdrop, citing rising geopolitical and economic risks as well

• Citibank $C ( ▲ 2.61% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue at $24.63B vs. $23.55B and EPS $3.06 vs. $2.65. Revenue reached its highest level in a decade, driven by strong fixed income and equities trading amid elevated volatility, alongside growth in services and banking. EPS was supported by the top line strength. The bank also pointed to continued progress on its restructuring and divestitures. Management also maintained its outlook but flagged macro and geopolitical uncertainty as a potential headwind.

• BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 3.02% ) Beat on both lines with revenue at $6.7B vs. $6.43B and EPS $12.53 vs. $11.5. Results were driven by strong net inflows ($130B), led by record iShares ETF demand alongside continued growth in private markets and technology services. The firm also benefited from higher markets and recent acquisitions (HPS & Preqin), supporting fee growth and margins, with AUM reaching $13.9T. Management highlighted strong momentum and long term growth targets but flagged ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.9% ) Beat on revenue at $24.1B vs. $23.6B and EPS $2.70 vs. $2.66. Results were driven by strong growth in oncology and immunology, with drugs like Darzalex and Tremfya more than offsetting a sharp 60% decline in Stelara due to biosimilar competition. MedTech also remained solid, supporting broader growth across the portfolio. The company raised full year guidance, signaling confidence in continued momentum despite pricing and competitive pressures.

• Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 5.7% ) Missed on revenue ($21.4B vs. $21.8B) but beat on EPS ($1.60 vs. $1.58). Results were pressured by weaker net interest income, as higher rates and rising consumer costs weighed on lending profitability, though loan growth remained strong with the loan book surpassing $1T. Management flagged rising energy prices as a potential headwind to consumer spending going forward.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Bloom Energy $BE ( ▲ 23.98% ) soared after Oracle announced that its purchasing another $400mm in stock and expanding its capacity partnership with the fuel cell maker.

• United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 2.1% ) and American Airlines $AAL ( ▲ 8.01% ) jumped following rumors Monday evening of a floated merger.

• JetBlue Airways $JBLU ( ▲ 16.91% ) rose on raised guidance and talk of potential sale to a larger carrier like United or Southwest.

• Meta $META ( ▲ 4.41% ) climbed after extending its deal with Broadcom for custom AI accelerators to 2029, with a commitment to deploy over 1 GW of computing capacity.

• AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 10.51% ) fell after Amazon announced its acquisition of Globalstar, adding competition for AST in the direct-to-device satellite connectivity industry.

• Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 1.83% ) and Figma $FIG ( ▼ 3.96% ) were down on Claude set to release an AI design tool

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Crypto exchange Kraken has filed for a U.S. IPO after freezing its IPO plans last month following Bitcoin’s early-year selloff. Kraken is targeting a $13.3B valuation, vs. $20B last November.

• SumUp, a fintech company that makes point-of-sale terminals, is lining up investment banks for a London IPO. The company could be valued at over $10B.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• March PPI Rundown: Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much lower than expectations of 1.1%, but with an 8.5% jump in energy costs driving the increase. The index grew 4% on an annual basis, marking the largest 12-month gain since February 2023.

• Private Credit is still happily on Bank balance sheets: Banks reported over $100B of exposure to private credit firms this earnings season, with JPMorgan at $50B, Wells Fargo at $36B, and Citi at $22B. Dimon added that he’s “not particularly worried” about JPMorgan’s exposure, for losses would have to be very large before banks are hit.

• 26North raises $6B debut buyout fund: Josh Harris’ 26North Partners closed nearly $6B for its first private equity fund, significantly topping its $4B target, with capital already deployed across seven deals.

• TCW Group has marked down its equity stake in Red Lobster by 98% since acquiring the restaurant via its bankruptcy in 2024, with its stake is now worth only $762k after previously being valued at $31mm. TCW still holds $56mm in Red Lobster debt that remains at par, suggesting the terminal value is higher than the total debt.

• Cumming Group is up for sale by New Mountain Capital, and Leonard Green is in talks to buy the construction consultancy firm at a $3B valuation. The potential deal comes as PE dealmaking lags behind a wider boom in M&A, with the number for PE-backed deals hitting a six-year low in Q1.

• Private credit concerns are overblown according to Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson, who says that heavily-scrutinized enterprise software companies will be able to repay their borrowings. Johnson adds that it will take decades, not years, for AI to supplant these companies and that the firm’s $100B private credit portfolio has yet to see an increase in delinquencies.

• Thoma Bravo winds down growth equity to refocus on buyouts: The $183B software-focused firm is winding down its minority growth strategy launched in 2021, opting to concentrate on controlling buyouts as AI disruption pressures its software portfolio.

• Man charged in attack on Sam Altman’s home: A suspect accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s residence has been charged with attempted murder, with prosecutors saying he was motivated by anti-AI extremism and carried documents naming additional AI executives and investors.

• Meta builds an AI “CEO agent”: Mark Zuckerberg is developing a personal AI agent to retrieve information and shed management layers as Meta pushes companywide AI adoption, flattens teams, and ties AI usage to performance reviews.

• Private jet company Bond is expanding its commitment with Bombardier to $5B. The KKR-backed company targets travelers with a net worth of over $500mm for its premium club-like experience in the sky.

• Goldman and Ardian bought CIC’s $1B U.S. PE stake, with both firms acquiring the stakes at healthy discounts as China’s sovereign wealth fund sought to reduce its exposure to private markets.

M&A Transactions💭 

Acea Energia, provider of energy services, was acquired for EUR 600.0M by Eni Plenitude. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Rana Gruber (OSL: RANA), a sustainable iron ore producer, was acquired for $300.0M by Champion Iron (ASX: CIA). EV/EBITDA was 4.73x and EV/Revenue was 1.99x. Carnegie Investment Bank and DNB Markets Norway advised on the sale.

Waygate Technologies Robotics, provider of non-destructive testing equipment and inspection services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.45B by Hexagon (STO: HEXA B). EV/Revenue was 2.3x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Secure Energy Services (TSE: SES), operates in waste management and energy infrastructure business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 6.394B by GFL Environmental (NYS: GFL). EV/EBITDA was 15.7x and EV/Revenue was 4.39x. ATB Capital Markets, Moelis & Company, and RBC Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Leggett & Platt (NYS: LEG), designs and produces engineered components, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.156B by Somnigroup International (NYS: SGI). EV/EBITDA was 8.69x and EV/Revenue was 1.02x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Enjoy Punta Del Este, operator of a hotel and casino, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $160.0M by JHSF Participacoes (BVMF: JHSF3).

Avanos Medical (NYS: AVNS), a medical technology company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.29B by American Industrial Partners. EV/Revenue was 1.84x. J.P. Morgan and UBS Group advised on the sale.

Globalstar (NAS: GSAT), a telecommunications company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $11.57B by Amazon.com (NAS: AMZN). EV/EBITDA was 92.16x and EV/Revenue was 42.38x.

Foran Mining, engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties, was acquired for CAD 4.231B by Eldorado Gold (TSE: ELD). Morgan Stanley, Stifel Financial, and National Bank Capital Markets advised on the sale.

For The Record, developer of digital recording software, was acquired for $212.5M by Tyler Technologies (NYS: TYL). Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

SayanskhimPlast, operator of an organochlorine production complex, was acquired for RUB 30.33B by Rosneft (MISX: ROSN). EV/Net Income was 28.63x and EV/Revenue was 1.43x.

Eurofins MET Labs, provider of laboratory testing and certification services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 575.0M by UL Solutions (NYS: ULS).

TPG agrees to acquire Learfield, provider of collegiate marketing services, in a deal worth roughly $2.0B.

Galera Therapeutics (PINX: GRTX), a biopharmaceutical company, was acquired through a reverse merger by Obsidian Therapeutics in an all stock deal. Concurrently a $350.0M private placement was completed. The combined company will operate as Obsidian Therapeutics and will be traded on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “OBX”.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

AGS Airports, operator of a network of regional airports, received GBP 350.0M of financing from undisclosed investors.

Slate Auto, manufacturer of a customizable electric vehicle, raised $650.0M of Series C venture funding led by TWG Global.

Rakuten Medical, developer of precision-targeted cancer therapies, raised $111.52M of Series F venture funding led by TaiAx Capital LP.

Neomorph, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Deerfield Management.

Ratio, developer of financial software, raised $115.8M of venture funding through a combination of equity and debt from undisclosed investors.

Shengshu Technology, developer of an AI 3D image generator, raised CNY 2.0B of Series B Venture funding led by Alibaba Cloud Computing at a pre-money valuation of CNY 10.0B.

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Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Diamond Prices are continuing to crash

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Futures are down (S&P -1.2% and Nasdaq -1.4%) as Trump has announced U.S. naval blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and is weighing limited strikes on Iran to get them back to the negotiating table. Crude oil is back to 104. The blockage of oil passage is a big hit to China, Iran’s primary buyer.

Every Sunday has involved escalation or an imminent deadline, and then once the stock market opens, there’s suddenly a new stock market catalyst, negotiation talks, a ceasefire, or something encouraging. I hate to dumb it down like that but that’s ultimately what’s been happening over the past month and there’s inherent similarities to how President Trump was approaching tariff negotiations a year ago.

Here’s a look at earnings this week. Not sure where the time goes, but it’s already time for 2Q Bank earnings to kick off.

• Monday: Goldman Sachs, Fastenal

• Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Albertsons, CarMax

• Wednesday: ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC Financial Services, J.B. Hunt

• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, Pepsico, Abbott Laboratories, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp

• Friday: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, State Street, Regions Financial, Ally Financial

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Existing home sales (4.05M)

• Tuesday: NFIB optimism index, Producer price index (1.1%), Core PPI (0.4%), PPI y/y, Core PPI y/y

• Wednesday: Import price index (2.4%), Import price index minus fuel, Empire State manufacturing survey, Home builder confidence index (37), Fed Beige Book 

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (12.4), Industrial production (-0.1%), Capacity utilization (76.3%)

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On The Move 📈 📉

• ServiceNow $NOW ( ▼ 1.43% ) fell after UBS downgraded the stock, citing weakening AI confidence as enterprise spending shifts toward AI tools, pressuring demand for its core software.

• CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 6.29% ) climbed further after announcing a multi year cloud deal with Anthropic, adding another major AI customer and reinforcing demand for its infrastructure.

• Fair Isaac $FICO ( ▲ 0.64% ) fell after Barclays cut its price target to $1,950 from $2,400, citing growth concerns as elevated interest rates continue to pressure mortgage volumes.

• Crowdstrike $CRWD ( ▼ 0.93% ) , Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▼ 0.57% ) , and cybersecurity stocks continued to trade off after rumors around Anthropic’s Mythos model.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Blackstone is weighing a $2B IPO for a data acquisition firm, with Goldman set to lead the offering.

• Suja Life, an organic juice maker, has filed for a U.S. IPO after reporting 26% sales growth last year. The company estimates that it turned a profit of $7mm to $8.8mm in Q1.

• Hawkeye 360, a satellite-based signals intelligence company, has filed for an IPO amid a surge in defense tech investment, reporting 2025 revenue of $117 million, up from $67.7 million in 2024.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• March inflation spikes: Consumer prices rose 3.3% y/y last month, in line with expectations. While skyrocketing gasoline prices drove the headline number higher, core prices rose by 2.6% gain y/y, 0.1% below expectations.

• Private equity roll-ups drive ambulance price surge: A recent substack found that Ambulance vehicle costs have jumped to 300%+ over the past decade to a whopping $498k, with two PE-backed groups now controlling the majority of North American manufacturing. With aging fleets, expensive parts like a chassis, and rollups, higher ambulance fleet pricing is being passed on to municipalities and consumers.

• Over 50% of PE-backed CEOs fail to meet expectations: A new study finds most CEOs are replaced during the investment period, highlighting the pressure to deliver rapid value creation under tight timelines. HBR found that leaders who found success 1) translate strategy into a simple, repeatable message 2) hire talent to match the firm’s ambition 3) relentlessly focus on 3-5 “big rock” priorities and say no to everything else 4) design agile operating systems to connect short-term action with long-term strategy and 5) build “ownership cultures”.

• Ares eyes a smaller $20B direct lending fund: Ares is planning a scaled-back flagship US private credit vehicle targeting ~$20B, with $10-12B of equity and significantly less leverage than its prior $33.6B fund.

• PolyPeptide explores EQT, KKR takeover: The Swiss contract drugmaker attracts interest from EQT, KKR, and Advent as it ramps up production of obesity and diabetes peptides.

• Vista’s Loan-To-Own fund: The firm’s credit-investing arm is raising $250mm for a new fund to buy deteriorating debt of software companies. The fund will target a mix of private and broadly syndicated loans as it aims to capitalize on recent AI-driven selloffs.

• Banks build new way to bet against private credit: JPMorgan and other large banks are working with S&P Global to launch CDX Financials, an index of credit-default swaps that includes names like Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone.

• Three former OpenAI Stargate leaders are joining Meta to support its AI infrastructure projects as Zuckerberg continues to aggressively add talent.

• Trump’s World Liberty Financial borrowed $75mm in stablecoins by pledging its own WLFI tokens as collateral, a circular move that raised conflict-of-interest concerns and locked up liquidity for other investors, sending the token’s price to record lows.

• The Super Mario Galaxy Movie hits $629mm at the global box office during its 2nd weekend in theaters.

M&A Transactions💭 

Itochu-Shokuhin, a Japan-based wholesale and distribution of food company, was acquired for JPY 61.9996B by G. K. FMDI. Nomura advised on the sale.

Fosber, designer and manufacturer, was acquired for $900.0M by Dongfang Precision (SHE: 002611). EV/EBITDA was 8.87x and EV/Revenue was 1.6x.

Corient acquired Vivaldi Capital Management, a Chicago-based wealth manager, adding $5.6B in client AUM.

Federal Capital Partners, operator of a real estate investment firm, was acquired for $331.0M by Federated Hermes (NYS: FHI). EV/Revenue was 7.07x. Berkshire Global Advisors advised on the sale.

GTCR completed its acquisition of Zentiva, a European generics pharmaceutical company, from Advent.

Gruns, a gummy supplement DTC startup has been acquired by Unilever for $1.2B.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Shengshu Technology, developer of an AI 3D image generator, raised nearly 2.0B yuan of Series B venture funding led by Alibaba Cloud Computing.

Chapter raised a $100mm Series E at a $3B valuation, led by Generation Investment Management

Tiger Global has agreed to invest in PopUp Bagels at a $300.0M valuation.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 18% chance of Spain winning the World Cup

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Memes of the Day 🧭

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Welcome back!

The stock market has rapidly rebounded as many investors have put the worst case scenario with the U.S. Iran War to bed. Is that wise? Not necessarily, but a lot of the posturing lately has indicated towards the U.S. being serious about de-escalation. It’s nice to enjoy this rebound, but we’re still quite a while off from the Strait of Hormuz returning to full volume, plus Israel seems less inclined to agree to a peace deal. The situation remains tense, but with recurring postponements and attempts to negotiate, we can hope the worst has passed.

Notably, Hedge funds closed shorts against US stocks at the fastest pace since March 2020 following the Tuesday evening ceasefire.

Let’s get into it.

Btw, we are running a State of AI in Finance Report with Buyside Hub - if you work on IB, PE, or Credit you can contribute here to access the report.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• Constellation $STZ ( ▼ 0.06% ) reported a beat on both revenue ($1.92B vs. $1.88B) and EPS ($1.90 vs. $1.72). Results were driven by strength in its core beer business, where higher-end brands like Modelo held up and helped offset weakness across the rest of the portfolio, as consumers pulled back and became more price-sensitive across alcohol categories. Margins improved y/y due to the higher profitability of the beer segment, but remain under pressure from elevated marketing spend and costs tied to new brewery investments. The company’s guidance came in below expectations, withdrawing its 2028 outlook entirely and citing limited visibility and consumer caution.

• Delta $DAL ( ▲ 6.94% ) reported a beat on both revenue and EPS, with revenue at $14.2B vs. $14.0B and EPS at $0.64 vs. $0.57. Results were driven by strong premium travel demand, with more customers buying higher priced seats, supporting pricing and profitability. The quarter was overshadowed by a sharp spike in fuel costs, with Delta expecting about a $2B increase in fuel expense, prompting the airline to cut capacity growth and raise fees to protect margins. Delta guided for the second quarter slightly below expectations and kept its full-year outlook unchanged. While higher fuel costs remain a headwind, the company expects its refinery to help offset around $300M of that pressure.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Brown-Forman $BF.B ( ▼ 0.21% ) , the maker of Jack Daniels, surged after spirits seller Sazerac approached the company about a potential deal.

• Cybersecurity stocks were down again, with $NET ( ▼ 2.92% ) , $CRWD ( ▼ 0.93% ) , $OKTA ( ▼ 2.09% ) , and $ZS ( ▲ 0.05% ) falling as Anthropic’s new agent platform, Claude Mthos, reignited cybersecurity fears.

• Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 3.81% ) rose following CEO Andy Jassy’s optimistic 2025 letter to shareholders. CEO Andy Jassy said Amazon’s in-house silicon unit is on pace for a $20B+ annual run rate and could begin selling AI chips to third parties amid surging demands for Nvidia alternatives.

• CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 6.29% ) climbed after they struck a $21B agreement to supply AI cloud capacity to Meta through 2032, bringing total contracts with the tech giant to $35B. It simultaneously moved to raise $3B of converts at 1.5-2% coupon and $1.25B of senior notes at 10% to fund its capital-intensive expansion.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• 7-Eleven’s owner will delay the planned IPO of its convenience-store business amid shaky market conditions. The move will provide Seven & i with more time to turn the business around and maximize valuation before pursuing an IPO later in the year.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Anthropic is reportedly planning on designing its own chip, although this is very early stages. This is much harder to do than how Google or Amazon have their own chips, so we don’t expect a major market reaction to this today.

  • Anthropic is scaring Bessent & Powell: Secretary Bessent and Chair Powell reportedly summoned Wall Street execs to an urgent meeting on how Anthropic’s new model could dramatically increase cyber risk.

  • Meanwhile, Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 2.52% ) took a hit yesterday after The Big Short’s Michael Burry warned Claude could eat its lunch.

• Meta debuted Muse Spark AI model: Meta launched Muse Spark, a new in-house AI model led by Alexandr Wang that narrows the performance gap with OpenAI and Anthropic, powering Meta AI across its apps.

• Perplexity hits $450mm ARR after shifting towards agents: ARR grew 50% in just one month after the introduction of Perplexity Computer, its agentic system. The startup has moved to usage-based pricing and now serves over 100 million active users and tens of thousands of enterprise clients each month.

• Goldman backs AI “picks and shovels” as capex accelerates: Goldman Sachs Asset Management said AI infrastructure spending remains in early-to-mid cycle, with durable capex growth ahead and opportunities concentrated in semiconductors.

• Carlyle's flagship $7B private credit fund was hit with 15.7% redemption requests. Redemptions were capped at the industry standard of 5% and the Fund’s software exposure is roughly 12%.

• CVC is seeking co-investors to help bankroll its €10.9B takeover of Recordati, an Italian drugmaker. The current plan will require an equity infusion of €5.5B to €6B, and CVC has held initial discussions with several foreign investors about partnering on the deal.

• BofA and Citi have sold down a bridge loan backing Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros, with eight different banks buying a piece of the $49B debt. Deutsche and Wells Fargo are among the new lenders. Paramount plans to later refinance the bridge with a mix of IG and junk debt.

• Private markets brace for $330B software debt wall: More than $330B of software-linked high-yield and leveraged loan debt matures through 2028, with 2021-vintage loans trading around $83 and “bad PIK” usage rising to 6.4%, signaling mounting stress in private credit.

• EQT is weighing a bid for AA in a deal valued at ~£5B. TowerBrook, Warburg Pincus, and Stonepeak currently own the breakdown recovery business and have appointed JPMorgan and Rothschild to explore a sale.

• The Justice Department is investigating the NFL for anticompetitive practices related to its TV contracts, which require consumers to pay several different subscription costs to watch the games.

• American Airlines is raising checked bag fees, joining other airlines as jet fuel prices have surged in recent weeks.

• The 2026 Masters is underway, with Sam Burns and defending champion Rory McIlroy as clubhouse leaders after round one.

• Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, an AI-powered service that will generate research reports for individual investors. The new business will utilize AI agents to scan markets, analyze trends, and uncover insights to draft “well-written” reports for investors.

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M&A Transactions💭 

Yomeishu Seizo (TKS: 2540), a beverage business, was acquired for JPY 28.029B by Reno. Mita Securities and Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities advised on the sale.

Team Services Group, provider of household employment and home care services, was acquired for $3.0B by General Atlantic.

Intuitive Investments Group (LON: IIG), an investment company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 600.0M by Acceler8 Ventures (LON: AC8). Strand Hanson and Zeus Capital advised on the sale.

Blackline Safety (TSE: BLN), a connected safety monitoring technology company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $850.0M by Francisco Partners. EV/Revenue was 7.81x.

ATM Gaming, developer of party board games, was acquired for EUR 180.0M by Asmodee (STO: ASMDEE B).

Assertio Holdings (NAS: ASRT), a pharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $155.605M by Garda Therapeutics. EV/Revenue was 1.31x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

Air Lease, an aircraft leasing company, was acquired by Sumitomo, SMBC Aviation Capital, Apollo Global Management, Brookfield Asset Management, Citigroup, and The Goldman Sachs Group for $27.58B. EV/EBITDA was 10.42x and EV/Revenue was 9.15x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Whitestone REIT (NYS: WSR), a real estate investment trust, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.61B by Ares Management (NYS; ARES). EV/EBITDA was 13.4x and EV/Revenue was 9.99x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Sealed Air, provider of packaging solutions, was acquired for $10.47B by Clayton and Dubilier & Rice. EV/EBITDA was 11.15x and EV/Revenue was 1.85x. Evercore Group advised on the sale. 

Hasten Biopharmaceuticals, distributor of pharmaceutical products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $250.0M by Everest Medicines (HKG: 01952). EV/Revenue was 3.04x.

Brex, developer of a corporate finance platform, was acquired for $5.15B by Capital One Financial (NYS: COF). EV/Revenue was 7.36x. Centerview Partners and DelMorgan & Co. advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Starfish Space, developer of autonomous satellite servicing vehicles, raised $111.69M of Series B venture funding led by Point72 Ventures, Shield Capital, and Activate Capital Partners at a pre-money valuation of $345.21M.

Sidewinder Therapeutics, operator of a precision biologics development company, raised $137.0M of Series B venture funding led by Novartis Ventures Fund and Frazier Healthcare Partners.

KreditBee, operator of an online micro-lending platform, raised $280.0M of Series E venture funding, led by Hornbill Capital, Dragon Fund, and Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors at a pre-money valuation of $1.22B.

D-Robotics, manufacturer of the humaniod robot, raised $150.0M of Series B2 Venture funding led by Prosperity7 Ventures, and Envision.

Spacety, developer of commercial micro satellites, raised CNY 1.3B of venture funding from Huarong Securities Investment, Liangxi Science and Technology Innovation Phase II Fund, Zhiangzhou Turing Capital, and Puhua Capital.

SiFive, developer of customized and open-source-enabled semiconductors, raised $400.0M of venture funding led by Atreides Management at a pre-money valuation of $3.25B.

Chapter Medicare, provider of digital advisory and health care plan services, raised $100.0M of Series E venture funding led by Generation Investment Management.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 25% chance of Rory Mcllroy winning the Masters

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Software LBOs have been at least 40% of US PE deal activity over the past decade. That’s why so many PE investors going pencils down on new Software deals can be so disruptive for activity.

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

Well Trump’s 8pm deadline last night was shockingly delayed.

President Trump has announced a 2-week ceasefire, subject to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s comments, especially the ones yesterday morning saying “A whole civilization will d** tonight, never to be brought back again.” was clearly more of a way to get the Iranians to the negotiation table and to try to re-open the Strait. This obviously parallels the Tariffs from Liberation Day a year ago, and until we see otherwise, we’re going to presume this is the playbook for the next month. As of now, futures point towards a dramatically positive Wednesday. Barring a downside case, it seems like we’ve set the lows and can hopefully recover from here.

Here’s the earnings that are coming up today:

• Wednesday: Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands, RPM International, Applied Digital

• Thursday: WD-40, BlackBerry Limited, Simply Good Foods

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes

• Thursday: Personal income (0.3%), Personal spending (0.5%), PCE index (0.4%), PCE y/y (2.8%), Core PCE index (0.4%), Core PCE y/y (3.0%), GDP second revision (0.7%), Initial jobless claims (210,000), Wholesale inventories (-0.5%)

• Friday: Consumer price index (1.0%), CPI y/y (3.3%), Core CPI (0.3%) Core CPI y/y (2.7%), Factory orders (0.2%), Consumer sentiment prelim (52.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• $LEVI ( ▲ 0.27% ) Levi Strauss came in with a top and bottom line beat, with revenue at $1.74B vs. $1.65B (+14%) and EPS at $0.42 vs. $0.37. The beat was driven by price increases and strong DTC growth. DTC sales rose 16% and now make up 52% of revenue as the company continues shifting toward its own channels, supporting margins as cost stay elevated given the higher profitability of the channel. The company raised full year guidance while noting that tariff remain a swing factor while lower duties could provide an additional boost to earnings later this year.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Invesco $IVZ ( ▲ 1.73% ) was down after BlackRock announced its plans to launch a competing Nasdaq-100 ETF. The move threatens Invesco’s $374B QQQ franchise, raising concerns about increasing competition in a market it has long dominated.

• Universal Music Group $UMGNF ( ▲ 3.24% ) jumped after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square submitted an offer to buy the company at a ~$60B valuation.

• Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 3.26% ) surged after securing $24B in funding from Middle East investors for the Warner Bros deal.

• Major healthcare companies like $UNH ( ▲ 0.38% ) , $CVS ( ▼ 0.6% ) , and $HUM ( ▼ 1.02% ) rose on news that the U.S. Medicare program will pay private insurers 2.48% more in 2027.

• Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 0.27% ) climbed after announcing a long-term deal with Google to develop and supply TPUs.

• Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.14% ) was down slightly after encountering engineering challenges in the development of its first foldable iPhone.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Madison Air is looking to raise $2.23B in an IPO that’s expected to price on April 15th. The ventilation and filtration systems provider is selling 82.7 million shares for $25 to $27 each, valuing the company at up to $13.2B.

• National Healthcare Properties, a senior housing-focused REIT, has filed for an IPO as it aims to capitalize on the growing elderly population in the U.S.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Anthropic is on track for $30B in estimated 2026 revenue, up from $9B at the end of 2025, with over 1,000 enterprise customers now spending $1M+ annually. The company confirmed a long-term chip and capacity deal with Broadcom and Google, securing access to 3.5 gigawatts of AI compute starting in 2027.

  • Meanwhile, reports are that Anthropic's new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public. Instead, a 40-company coalition is getting a head start on locking down critical software.

  • The company is also planning to invest $200mm in a joint venture with PE firms to sell its AI tools to their portfolio companies. General Atlantic, Blackstone, and Hellman & Friedman are among the firms in talks to raise $1B (including Anthropic’s planned contribution) for the effort.

• QTS draws $12.5B demand for Microsoft-linked data center bond: Blackstone-backed QTS saw peak orders of $12.5B for a $4.6B debut investment-grade bond tied to a Microsoft-leased data center in Georgia, pricing at +137.5bps over Treasuries.

  • Meanwhile, Blackstone has raised $10B for its opportunistic credit fund, which was oversubscribed and closed at its hard cap. The strategy has generated a 13% net IRR since its inception in 2007.

• Banks line up €750M financing for €1.5B sushi merger: Deutsche Bank, RBC, and UniCredit are underwriting a €650M term loan and €100M revolver to back up the merger of Eat Happy and Hana Group’s European operations, with plans to syndicate the debt as leveraged loans or high-yield bonds depending on market conditions.

• Pimco weighs a $14B debt package for Oracle data center: Pimco and Bank of America are in talks to help finance a $14B bond deal for Oracle’s Michigan data center tied to OpenAI workloads. The move follows Pimco’s $18B Meta data center financing last year.

• Yahoo is in talks for a $1.6B refinancing: The Apollo-backed media company is seeking a $1.1B leveraged loan with px talk of S+550 @ 98.5 and secured debt in the mid-to-high 9% range.

• Private credit fears spill into the muni market, as concerns in the private credit industry continue to build, with bonds linked to Apollo-owned Athene Annuity and Life Co. weakening even more than the benchmark munis.

• RBC leads $1.1B loan to finance nuclear LBO as AI-driven power demand boosts the sector. The bank is backing debt for Energy Capital Partner’s acquisition of EnergySolutions, as growing electricity demand from AI data centers increases demand for reliable nuclear power, even as volatile markets have slowed leveraged loan issuance recently.

• SMFG, Nippon Life explore $3B Japan LBO loan fund: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Nippon Life are in talks to launch a ¥500B ($3B) private credit fund to finance leveraged buyouts, real estate transactions, and mezzanine financing, marking a potential shift in Japan’s bank-dominated LBO market.

• Deutsche’s distressed desk more than doubled its profits in Q1 to over $100mm after shorting a basket of software company debt. The trades included going long Brightspeed and shorting Xerox.

• Arclight raised $3.9B for its 8th fund that will focus on energy-related infrastructure strategies. The fund was 30% oversubscribed, highlighting the strong demand for power generation deals.

• EV sales are on the rise with fuel prices up: 137k new EVs were sold in the UK in March, a monthly record and up 14.5% y/y. Tesla sales specifically rose 20% y/y.

  • Used car sales are also on the rise, with prices increasing 6.2% y/y last month to their highest level since summer 2023.

• Goldman warns laid-off tech workers that finding new employment will be difficult, likely taking one month longer and resulting in a job that pays 3% less.

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M&A Transactions💭 

Soleno Therapeutics (NAS: SLNO), a biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.953B by Neurocrine Biosciences (NAS: NBIX). EV/EBITDA was 258.29x and EV/Revenue was 15.51x. Centerview Partners and Guggenheim Partners advised on the sale.

SBI Savings Bank, operator of a banking institution, was acquired for KRW 900.0B by Kyobo Life Insurance. EV/Net Income was 15.11x.

Olympic Group (TKS: 8289), a Japan-based company engaged in the retail business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 25.0B by Pan Pacific International Holdings (TKS: 7532).

Lotusworks, provider of engineering and technical project recourses services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 375.0M by Bureau Veritas (PAR: BVI).

Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing, manufacturer of fitting systems and supplying components, was acquired for $1.8B by Howmet Aerospace (NYS: HWM). EV/Revenue was 4.39x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Hologic, manufactures proprietary products, was acquired by Blackstone, TPG, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and GIC Private for $20.5B. The transaction was supported by $12.25B of debt financing. The stockholders will receive $76.0 per share in cash plus a non-tradable contingent value right (CVR) to receive up to $3.0 per share in two payments of up to $1.5 each, for a total consideration of up to $79.0 per share in cash. EV/EBITDA was 20.44x and EV/Revenue was 4.97x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Xoople, developer of an observation and data analysis platform, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding led by Nazca Capital.

Stipple Bio, operator of a biotechnology company, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz, Nextech Invest, and RA Capital Management.

Firmus Technologies, provider of advanced AI-infrastructure systems, raised $505.0M of venture funding.

OFF/BEAT, the company is currently operating in stealth mode, raised $1.0B of Seed venture funding from Bessemer Venture Partners.

Aria Networks, developer of an AI-focused networking platform, raised $125.0M of Series A venture funding from Valor Equity Partners, Eclipse Capital, and Sutter Hill Ventures.

Superhuman, developer of writing assistance technology, raised $1.02B of venture funding from Teachers’ Venture Growth, 9Yards Capital Management, and Makai VC.

Starfish Space, developer of autonomous satellite servicing vehicles, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Point72 Ventures, Shield Capital, and Activate Capital Partners.

Spirit AI Robotics, manufacturer of intelligent robotics and AI systems, raised CNY 1.0B of venture funding led by Yunfeng Capital, and Shunwei Capital.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 59% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal following this ceasefire.

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

After an abbreviated trading week, we have the S&P and Nasdaq down -0.6% and -0.6% respectively following Trump’s warning that a deal must be reached by Tuesday at 8pm ET. If not, Trump will strike “every power plant and every bridge” in Iran. Crude has now shot up to $113/barrel. I have to fill up my car tomorrow and am not looking forward to it! Trump still believes he can get a deal done with Iran in advance of Tuesday, but he is also set to have a news conference with the US Military at 1pm tomorrow.

According to Iran, 15 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours (compares to the usual 138 ships per day). Bizarrely, Citrini has sent one of their Analysts to the Strait of Hormuz to do boots on the ground channel checks.

A lot of our Sunday night posts have been quickly met with “Wait, here’s another pause or delay!”….so let’s see what happens this week…

We put a new WSR IC piece on IEH Corporation last week. Our 40% off offer expires in 3 days - so take action now.

As a reminder, we are moving to 3x/week (outside of Holidays) so expect seeing us on Wednesday and Friday mornings. Let’s get into it.

This Week’s Calendar:

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: Levi Strauss

• Wednesday: Delta Air Lines, Constellation Brands, RPM International, Applied Digital

• Thursday: WD-40, BlackBerry Limited, Simply Good Foods

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: ISM Services (55.4%)

• Tuesday: Durable goods orders (-1.0%), Durable-goods minus transportation, Consumer credit ($10.0B)

• Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes

• Thursday: Personal income (0.3%), Personal spending (0.5%), PCE index (0.4%), PCE y/y (2.8%), Core PCE index (0.4%), Core PCE y/y (3.0%), GDP second revision (0.7%), Initial jobless claims (210,000), Wholesale inventories (-0.5%)

• Friday: Consumer price index (1.0%), CPI y/y (3.3%), Core CPI (0.3%) Core CPI y/y (2.7%), Factory orders (0.2%), Consumer sentiment prelim (52.0)

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On The Move 📈 📉

• $SBAC ( ▼ 0.98% )  SBA Communications Corporation shares surged after reports the company is exploring a potential sale following takeover interest from infrastructure funds.

• Space stocks have been on the move higher, with $YSS ( ▲ 1.74% )  $VSAT ( ▲ 0.76% )  $PL ( ▼ 1.14% )  $TSAT ( ▲ 0.65% ) and $IRDM ( ▲ 2.51% ) among those moving higher on SpaceX’s IPO filing, momentum from recent NASA milestones, and broader optimism around falling launch costs and expanding space infrastructure demand.

• $WIX ( ▼ 1.69% )  Wix.com shares fell after analysts downgraded the stock as the company’s core business is expected to slow (12% growth to 8% growth), while higher AI and marketing spending is set to pressure margins and reduce profitability.

• $TSLA ( ▲ 3.34% )  Tesla shares fell after reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 deliveries of ~358K vehicles, missing estimates and signaling soft demand as production outpaced deliveries, leading to rising inventory.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• SpaceX is now targeting a valuation above $2T in its IPO and could raise as much as $75B, potentially marking the largest listing ever. The company has begun floating the valuation to investors as it lines up anchor backers, with banks such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and a broader syndicate of up to 21 banks.

• Barrick Mining has hired Goldman to lead the IPO of its gold assets in a deal that could give the new company a valuation of more than $60B.

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We just put out a great new piece on IEH Corporation

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• U.S. job growth in March was +178k, well above estimates of +70k. Unemployment was lower m/m to 4.3%, but that was due to lower labor force participation. However, February jobs have been revised to a 133k loss, down from an initially reported 92k loss.

  • The real story - Healthcare is carrying the job market. Over the past 12 months, the healthcare industry has added 663k jobs while most other sectors have contracted over the same period.

• Altman and OpenAI’s CFO are diverging on IPO timing: Altman and CFO Sarah Friar are apparently in disagreement re: timing of an IPO. Altman is rushing towards an IPO, while Friar is worried about revenue growth and compute spend. As a result, she has been left out of financial planning meetings by Altman, and began reporting to the head of applications instead of Altman.

  • Meanwhile, OpenAI is reshuffling leadership: Longtime COO Brad Lightcap is now set to lead special projects and will oversee OpenAI’s push to sell its software to businesses through joint ventures with PE firms. Additionally, CMO Kate Rouch and AGI development CEO Fidji Simo are stepping away for medical reasons.

• Blue Owl limits redemptions: The firm enforced its 5% withdrawal limit after investors in the Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. and Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. asked to pull 22% and 41% of shares, respectively. Blue Owl had previously met redemption requests above the 5% level for these funds.

• KKR raises $23B for North America PE fund: The firm closed its largest-ever North America-focused private equity vehicle, underscoring sustained LP appetite for private markets. KKR’s PE AUM now stands at ~$229B.

• Ares leads a private credit CV: Ares was the lead investor in a $1.7B continuation vehicle of more than 200 1L loans originated and managed by Antares. Generally, continuation vehicles for private credit are atypical, but this marked the second deal between the firms in the past year.

• PE fundraising hits decade low: Buyout firms raised just $86B in Q1, putting 2026 on pace for the weakest annual total since 2016 as private credit stress, software volatility, and the Iran war weigh on LP sentiment.

• 3 Gulf Funds are backing Paramount’s $81B takeover of Warner Bros: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is providing $10B, a big slug of the $23B+ David Ellison is receiving from Middle-East funds to help finance his Warner Bros Discovery takeover.

• Caa1-rated Cleaning-products maker PLZ turns to private credit to refinance its ~$1B in BSL market debt, with Ares and Antares arranging the financing for the Pritzker-backed company.

• A Maine bill banning new data center construction is expected to pass in the Senate, freezing data-center projects of at least 20 megawatts until November 2027 so the state can assess their impact on the environment and electricity grid.

• Maintenance covenants continue to loosen: Nearly half of deals from 2024-2025 set leverage thresholds at 8x EBITDA or higher, while 26% set leverage thresholds at 9x or higher.

• Genesis HealthCare Assets are sold, following its bankruptcy: NewGen is officially acquiring 200 nursing homes from Genesis HealthCare, which filed for bankruptcy in last July.

• Mercury is in talks to raise at a $5B valuation after hitting $650mm in annualized revenue in 2025. The fintech startup recently acquired Central, a payroll and benefits service, as it expands into small business and personal banking.

• Musk ties Grok to SpaceX IPO mandates: Banks vying to advise on SpaceX’s IPO are being required to purchase subscriptions to Musk’s AI chatbot Grok, with some firms committing tens of millions of dollars.

M&A Transactions💭 

OpenAI acquires TBPN, a daily, live tech talk show and one of the fastest-growing media companies, for reportedly “low-hundreds of millions of dollars”.

VISUfarma, operator of an ophthalmic specialty pharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 190.0M by Lupin (BOM: 500257). EV/Revenue was 3.67x. Stifel advised on the sale.

Vibrant Energy, developer of clean renewable energy infrastructure, was acquired for INR 50.0B by Inox Green Energy Services (BOM: 543667). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

The Employee Health and Safety Software Business of UL Solutions (NYS: ULS) was acquired for $210.0M by Peak Rock Capital. EV/Revenue was 3.75x. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

The Flexitallic Group, manufacturer of industrial static sealing products, was acquired for $475.1M by Groupe Michelin (PAR: ML). EV/Revenue was 2.16x. Citigroup advised on the sale.

The Container Store, operator of a chain of retail stores, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $150.0M by Bed Bath & Beyond (NYS: BBBY).

S E & M Constructors, operator of a full-service mechanical, electrical, and plumbing contractor service, was acquired for $158.0M by Everus Construction Group (NYS: ECG). EV/Revenue was 1.45x. FMI advised on the sale.

The North Island Operations of Synlait Milk (NZE: SML) were acquired by Abbot (NYS: ABT) for NZD 307.0M.

The Edaravone Business of Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma was acquired by Shionogi & Co. (TKS: 4507) for $2.5B. Centerview Partners and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Leonardo Hotel London Aldgate was acquired for GBP 130.0M by Leonardo Hotel Management.

Four Roses Distillery, producer of bourbons handcrafted beverage, was acquired for JPY 120.0B by E. & J. Gallo Winery. UBS Group advised on the sale.

160over90, provider of marketing and brand strategy services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $500.0M by Publicis Groupe (PAR: PUB).

Starbucks China, operator of a chain of coffee restaurants in China, was acquired for $4.0B by Boyu Capital. EV/EBITDA was 14.81x and EV/Revenue was 2.15x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Coefficient Bio, a company in stealth mode, was acquired for $400.0M by Anthropic.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Vulcan Elements, manufacturer of rare earth magnets, raised $430.72M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Galaxea AI, developer and manufacturer of embodied intelligent robots, raised CNY 2.0B of Series B+ venture funding from Lens Technology, Beijing Science and Technology Innovation Fund, and Aviation Development Fund Management at a pre-money valuation of CNY 18.0B.

Newrite Medical, developer of targeted therapeutic and diagnostic agents, raised CNY 1.0B of Series E venture funding led by Shanghai STVC Group, Nanjing Gaoke Xinjun, and Guoxin Capital.

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Together with Pegasus Insights

Welcome back.

Well this is weird for us, this is our last week at 2x/week. We are transitioning to 3x/week starting next week. Here’s our schedule:

• Sundays, 8pm ET

• Wednesdays, 6:30am ET

• Fridays, 6:30am ET

However, if there any holidays (Memorial Day Weekend, July 4th, the late-august slow period) you will see us flex back to 2x/week.

We’ve had a bit of a relief rally this week, but following Trump’s speech last night, futures are down and oil is back up. The President didn’t really say anything new, and the reiteration that the U.S. is going to press hard over the next 2-3 weeks is the biggest driver of negative price action at the moment.

Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Pegasus Insights. Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $NKE ( ▲ 3.01% )  Nike had a top and bottom line beat, with revenue essentially flat y/y as growth in North America and wholesale (+5%) offset declines in Greater China (-11%) and weaker direct to consumer trends, driving results above expectations despite margin pressure from higher tariffs and rising costs. The bigger story was guidance, with Nike now expecting low single digit revenue declines and about a 20% sales drops in China next quarter. Shares fell sharply following the update.

• $RH ( ▲ 3.57% )  RH missed on both revenue ($842.6M vs. $873.6M) and EPS ($1.53 vs. $2.20). Results were pressured as tariff related disruptions delayed inventory and drove $30M in lost sales, alongside $10M lost in revenue from weather as storms disrupted store traffic and deliveries. Demand remained soft amid a weak housing backdrop, forcing the company to discount more even as costs stayed elevated, squeezing profits. The company guided below expectations, reflecting continued tariff headwinds, housing driven demand weakness, and limited near-term improvement.

• $FDS ( ▼ 1.27% )  FactSet beat on revenue ($611M vs. $604M) and EPS, with sales up 7.1% y/y driven by strong subscription growth, client additions, and increased demand for data and analytics tools. The company raised guidance to $2.45B–$2.47B and EPS of $17.25–$17.75.

• $CAG ( ▼ 1.59% )  Conagra beat on revenue ($2.79B vs $2.77B) but missed slightly on EPS. Results were driven by higher pricing, which helped offset weaker consumer demand, while margins were pressured by higher input costs and softer volumes. Guidance came in cautious, reflecting continued cost pressures and a still-stretched consumer backdrop.

• $LW ( ▲ 3.43% )  Lamb Weston had a top and bottom like beat with revenue at $1.56B vs. $1.48B and EPS $0.72 vs. $0.61. Strength in North America volumes drove the beat, though pricing support to move product pressured margins, while International remained weak amid softer demand and potato oversupply in Europe. The company raised full year sales and EBITDA guidance modestly, though margin pressure persists.

• $PLAY ( ▲ 7.12% )  Dave and Busters missed on revenue ($529.6M vs. $557M) and EPS (–$0.35 vs 0.39). Results were pressured by weaker comps and softer traffic, with winter storms further weighing on demand, though trends improved sequentially through the quarter. Management guided to a stronger 2026 with over $100M in cash generation, driven by improving same store sales trends and tighter cost control, sending shares higher.

On The Move 📈 📉

• $BYND ( ▲ 9.06% )  Beyond Meat shares fell as the market reacts to the company’s recent earnings which were weaker than expected, revenue came in at $61.6M vs. $63M and the company issued lower guidance of $57–59M vs. $67M. Continued weakness in plant based demand and falling volumes signal the slowdown isn’t improving, keeping pressure on sales and margins.

• $INTC ( ▼ 2.1% ) Intel shares jumped after the chipmaker said it will repurchase a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 facility from Apollo Global Management for $14.2B, reversing a 2024 cash raising deal and signaling improved financial strength as demand for server CPUs rises alongside AI workloads.

• $MU ( ▲ 9.17% )  Micron was named a top pick at Cantor, resulting in strong days for Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 0.84% ) and Western Digital $WDC ( ▲ 4.59% ) as well

IPO Roundup 📍 

• SpaceX has filed confidentially for an IPO, targeting a potential $1.75T valuation.

• TK Elevator, the industrial elevator manufacturer, backed by Advent and Cinven is considering an IPO, among other strategic options. The valuation may reach $28.7B.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• KKR is curbing redemptions to 5% in its KKR FS Income Trust BDC. They received a 6.3% repurchase request, but like many private credit firms are holding at industry standard 5% rates.

• Archroma launches $1B+ refinancing: Banks are syndicating $846M in leveraged loans and a $200M second-lien tranche priced at S+900-925 to refinance upcoming maturities as the chemical sector faces tariff headwinds.

• PE taps $94B to fund dividends: PE-backed companies borrowed $94B in leveraged loans and high-yield bonds to fund 2025 sponsor payouts. Total activity neared $200B across 2024-2025, with $88B distributed to sponsors.

• JPMorgan amends Sealed Air LBO: JPMorgan revised terms on the $7.2B buyout after investor pushback for greater protections, with an OID now set for 95-96 cents on the dollar. The $4.1B loan struggled to attract demand despite being priced at 97.5 OID, while the $1.85B bond tranche performed better with $3.9B in orders.

• Senior creditors of Vista-backed Solera, including Apollo and Pimco, have signed a cooperation agreement with White & Case ahead of the company’s $3.2B first-lien term loan due in 2028, which is currently quoted at 87 cents on the dollar, down from 97 cents in January.

• GFL Environmental nears a $900M acquisition of Frontier Waste Solutions, as the trash collector looks to expand its U.S. footprint.

• Blank Street is in talks to raise $100mm+ in new funding, targeting a $1B valuation, as the coffee chain seeks to expand in the US and UK.

• Related Digital, is nearing completion of $16B in financing for an Oracle-backed Michigan data center: This Saline Township, Michigan center will include $2B in equity from Blackstone and $14B in debt from Bank of America. Pricing has widened from initial levels of S+225 to S+450. 

  • Meanwhile Oracle is reportedly cutting 20,000 to 30,000 employees (18% to 20% of workforce) as the Company cuts costs and pushes resources towards AI datacenter buildouts like these.

• BC Partners has secured €2.2B for Fund XII, halfway to its €5B target.

• Amazon Leo will roll out on Delta flights starting in 2028, providing in-air connectivity to 500 planes to start.

  • Meanwhile, rumors are swirling that Amazon is in talks to buy Globalstar, a LEO satellite company that trades at a ~$8.6B valuation currently.

• JP Morgan is evaluating entering the prediction markets industry, but would avoid areas like sports and politics.

• Mercor was hit by a cyberattack tied to a LiteLLM project that resulted in a material data leak that reportedly includes video and verification data.

• Coreweave raised a $8.5B IG-rated loan, secured by GPUs and backed by contracts with Meta worth at least $19B. MUFG, MS, GS, and JP Morgan participated and the two tranches priced at S+225 and a fixed rate of 5.9%.

M&A Transactions💭 

Traverse Midstream Partners, operator of an investment platform, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.25B by 2PointZero. The transaction was supported by $1.1B of debt financing.

Sterno, manufacturer of light and heat products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $292.5M by Archer Foodservice Partners. EV/EBITDA was 9.65x. Raymond James and Jefferies advised on the sale.

Rio Galeao Aeroporto Internacional, operator of an airport, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for BBRL 2.9B by Aena, S.M.E (MAD: AENA). EV/Revenue was 22.08x.

Restaurant Depot, supplier of restaurant and catering supplies, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $29.1B by Sysco (NYS: SYY). EV/EBITDA was 13.86x and EV/Revenue was 1.82x. J.P. Morgan and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Kwality Walls India (NSE: KWIL), engaged in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of ice creams, was acquired for INR 29.978B by The Magnum Ice Cream Company (AMS: MICC).

Kubra, developer of printed and electronic billing, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $372.0M by Repay Holdings (NAS: RPAY). EV/EBITDA was 2.09x and EV/Revenue was 0.68x. Financial Technology Partners advised on the sale.

Fonterra Co-Operative Group’s Consumer, Dairy Ingredients and Food Service Business was acquired by Groupe Lactalis for $4.22B.

Fidere Patrimonio Socimi (MAD: YFID), a real estate investment company, was acquired for EUR 1.05B by Brookfield Corporation. Eastdil Secured advised on the sale.

Electrical Power Products, manufacturer of power management systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Flex (NAS: FLEX). RA Capital advised on the sale.

Unilever Foods, producer of food products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $44.8B by McCormick & Company (NYS: MKC). Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

STADA Arzneimittel, manufacturer of pharmaceuticals and consumer healthcare products, was acquired for EUR 7.0B by CapVest Partners. The transaction values the company at $10.0B. EV/EBITDA was 10.68x and EV/Revenue was 2.39x. Deutsche Bank, ERM Capital, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

QMS Media, provider of outdoor media services, was acquired for $850.0M by Nine Entertainment (ASX: NEC).

PayneCrest Electric, provider of electrical networking and systems integration services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $422.0M by Primoris Services (NYS: PRIM). FMI advised on the sale.

Mainland, producer of dairy and food products, was acquired for NZD 4.22B by Groupe Lactalis. Jarden Group and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

EGYM, developer of a professional fitness platform, was acquired for $7.5B by Affinity Partners, Temasek Holdings, L Catterton, and Mindbody. EV/Revenue was 93.52x.

Connecticut Sun, operator of a professional women’s basketball team, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $300.0M by Fertitta Entertainment.

Centessa Pharmaceuticals (NAS: CNTA), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $6.417B by Eli Lilly (NYS: LLY). EV/Revenue was 427.82x. Centerview Partners and Jefferies advised on the sale.

Bull, developer of AI software and a subsidiary of Atos (PAR: ATO), was acquired for EUR 404.0M by The French State. The company will receive a contingent payout of EUR 104.0M upon the completion of certain performance metrics.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NAS: APLS), a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $6.074B by Biogen (NASS: BIIB). EV/EBITDA was 106.85x and EV/Revenue was 6.05x.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Borealis, manufacturer of chemicals, received EUR 16.5B of financing from OMV.

ScaleOps, developer of an optimization platform, raised $130.0M of Series C venture funding led by Insight Partners at a pre-money valuation of $670.0M.

Rebellions, developer of AI semiconductor-based full-stack alternatives, raised $400.0M of venture funding led by Mirae Asset Financial Group and Korea Development Bank at a pre-money valuation of $1.94B.

Whoop, developer of a wearable performance improvement device, raised $575.0M of Series G venture funding led by Collaborative Fund, Mubadala Investment Company, 2PointZero Group, and The Qatar Investment Authority at a pre-money valuation of $9.53B.

Tenex.AI, developer of an AI-enabled cybersecurity platform, raised $250.0M of Series B venture funding led by Crosspoint Capital Partners at a pre-money valuation of $750.0M.

Syneron, developer of peptide therapeutics, raised $150.0M of Series B venture funding from Lenovo Capital and Incubator Group, Lilly Asia Ventures, and AstraZeneca.

Saronic, manufacturer of unmanned surface vehicles, raised $1.75B of Series D venture funding led by Kleiner Perkins on a pre-money valuation of $7.5B.

QBoson, developer of quantum computing products, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding led by ICBC Financial Asset Investment, Addor Capital, and Beijing Financial Holdings Group.

KeyRock, developer of a digital asset trading platform, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by SC Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $1.0B.

Decart, developer of an AI infrastructure platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding from Nvidia and Radical Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $4.4B.

Ambrosia Biosciences, operator of a metabolic disease biotech company, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Redmile Group, Deep Track Capital, and Blue Owl Capital.

9fin, developer of an AI powered data and analytics platform, raised $170.0M of Series C venture funding led by HarbourVest Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.13B.

Calm, developer of sleep, meditation, and relaxation applications, raised $200.0M of Series D venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $1.8B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back!

The S&P was down -1.7% on Friday as increased investor worries about the U.S. and Iran War materialized. This was the worst week in the market since the conflict began. Futures are down a touch currently, with the S&P down -0.6% and Nasdaq off -0.75%. Bitcoin’s relief rally has stalled out, with the crypto now hovering around $66k. Meanwhile, the 10-year is up to 4.4%.

President Trump last week delayed the “period of Energy Plant destruction” to Monday April 6th following ongoing negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, Pakistan has expressed confidence in the ability to facilitate peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, but it’s unclear if this is formalized yet. Marco Rubio has expressed that he expects the Iran war to be finished in the next couple of weeks. However, the administration is reportedly planning for a boots on the ground deployment of several thousand troops. The Houthis have entered the war, and Israel has been carrying out strikes in Tehran today.

With Trump’s deadline and Rubio’s statements, the U.S. is trying to position sentiment towards the war ending soon, but that doesn’t seem to be indicative of what is happening currently. Remain cautious, even with the possibility of a strong market rally should Trump de-escalate.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: Nike, McCormick, TD Synnex, Dave & Buster's, FactSet, Beyond Meat, PVH Corp

• Wednesday: Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, MSC Industrial Direct, Tilray Brands

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index 20 cities, Chicago Business Barometer PMI, Job openings (7.0M), Consumer confidence (88.0)

• Wednesday: U.S. retail sales (0.4%), Retail sales minus autos (0.3%), ADP jobs, S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing (52.0%), Business inventories

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210,000), U.S. trade deficit (-$61.7 billion)

• Friday: U.S. employment report (45,000), U.S. unemployment rate (4.5%), U.S. hourly wages (0.3%), Hourly wages year over year (3.8%), S&P final U.S. services PMI

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• $CCL ( ▲ 3.39% ) Carnival beat on revenue of $6.17B vs. $6.14B and EPS of $0.20 vs. $0.18, driven by strong bookings, higher ticket pricing, and record onboard spending, with customer deposits reaching nearly $8B. The company cut full year EPS outlook to $2.21 from $2.48 as a sharp rise in fuel costs tied to geopolitical tensions is expected to add $500M in expenses, pressuring margins despite strong demand. Shares fell following the update.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Cyber stocks traded off Friday following an internal memo from Claude leaked that revealed “Mythos”, a new model that may cause “unprecedented cybersecurity risks” stocks like $OKTA ( ▼ 2.09% )  $S ( ▼ 0.31% ) and $CRWD ( ▼ 0.93% ) were all hit

• Unity Software $U ( ▲ 2.41% ) stock surged after issuing stronger-than-expected Q1 guidance, projecting revenue of $480M-$505M and higher adjusted EBITDA. Shares remain down 55% YTD despite the rebound.

• Figma $FIG ( ▼ 3.96% ) stock declined as Google positions itself as a competitor within the design software space.

• Airbnb $ABNB ( ▲ 2.71% ) shares fell as oil prices and TSA staffing disruptions weighed on travel sentiment.

• Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 1.02% ) shares slipped as investors negatively assessed operational changes, including kiosk formats and a renewed emphasis on sit-down experiences.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Anthropic is considering an IPO as soon as October, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley in early talks for lead roles. The company was valued at $380B in a recent funding round and seeks to raise $60B+.

• PE-backed convenience store operator Yesway filed for a US IPO, targeting a potential $300M raise. The company posted $2.7B in revenue in 2025.

• Babylist, a baby registry platform, is weighing a potential 2027 IPO after revenue jumped 45% in 2025 to $750M+. The company is targeting $1B in 2026 sales.

For deeper, stock market research upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• OpenAI-Anthropic feud shapes the future of AI: A decade-long power struggle between Sam Altman and Dario Amodei is spilling into public view, with disagreements over AI safety, government contracts, and leadership philosophy defining the rivalry between the two firms as they both race toward potential IPOs.

• Mortgage rates rise, consumer confidence: 30-year mortgage rates have surged to 6.38%, a tough setup going into spring selling season, especially compared to the <6% rates we were flirting with just a month ago. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in March fell from 56.6 to 53.3 (est. of 54) due to worries over the Iran war and rising gas prices.

• Microsoft takes over AI data center capacity, renting about 900MW in Texas that was previously planned for Oracle and OpenAI, highlighting continued demand for AI infrastructure even when one party steps out.

  • Meanwhile, SoftBank secured a record $40B bridge loan to fund its growing stake in OpenAI.

• Permira targets discounted European software debt, after AI disruption fears sparked a selloff, arguing markets have overreacted. Permira’s head of strategic opportunities said “A lot of these names, we just don’t believe will go through restructuring.”

• BofA, Citi, and Apollo move to offload $57.5B in Warner Bros LBO Debt, with syndication potentially wrapping up at the end of this week.

• Apollo is planning a move down south: The asset management giant is set to establish a 2nd HQ in either south Florida or Texas, according to a statement written to the FT.

• Asia PE funds saw the lowest fundraising environment in a year, according to Bain, with just $58B in fundraising closed, compared to 2021’s peak of $180B. Asia’s share of global fundraising fell to 5%.

• Blackstone and industrial investor Tinicum are among the bidders to acquire UK aerospace parts supplier Senior, with shares trading around £2.77, the company is valued at ~£1.16B today. Advent and Arcline are also involved, and Advent’s £2.72 a share bid was previously rejected.

• An Oaktree private credit fund met 8.5% withdrawal requests, honoring the full request vs. the usual 5% quarterly cap. Here’s a great chart below on how redemptions have hit private credit managers so far:

• TSA Agents will be paid during the shutdown following an executive order from President Trump.

• PlayStation prices are on the rise, with the PS5 console rising from $549.99 to $649.99 effective April 2nd.

  • Expect no reprieve here - with chip costs on the rise due to AI demand, gamers are left with higher prices as a result.

• Netflix is raising U.S. prices: Standard with Ads Plans are getting raised by $1 to $8.99, while Standard without Ads and Premium plans are getting raised by $2 each to $19.99/month and $26.99/month, respectively.

M&A Transactions💭 

Olaplex Holdings (NAS: OLPX), a beauty company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.848B by Henkel (ETR: HEN3). EV/EBITDA was 24.89x and EV/Revenue was 4.37x. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Dolly Varden Silver (TSX: DV), a mineral exploration company, was acquired for $812.003M by Contango ORE (ASE: CTGO). Haywood Securities and Raymond James advised on the sale.

Bioniq, producer of personalized nutritional supplements, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $150.0M by Herbalife Nutrition (NYS: HLF).

Motorola Solutions Canada Network has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Land Mobile Radio Networks Services Business of Bell Canada for CAD 675.0M.

ATM Gaming, developer of party board games, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 180.0M Asmodee (STO: ASMDEE B).

Xanadu, developer of photonic quantum computing hardware, was acquired for $500.0M by Crane Harbor Acquisition through a reverse merger. The company also received $275.0M of development capital from Georgian, MMCAP International, and Planet First Partners.

Transcend Therapeutics, operator of a neuroscience focused clinical stage company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 111.6B by Otsuka Pharmaceutical.

Ravelin Properties (TSE: RPR.UN), an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Clarke. EV/Revenue was 9.86x. KSV Advisory advised on the sale.

Pension Insurance Corporation, provider of insurance services, was acquired for GBP 5.7B by Athora.

Excellergy, developer of protein therapeutics, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.0B by Novartis (SWX: NOVN). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Wefox, developer of a comparison platform, raised EUR 166.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. EUR 91.0M was raised from Chrysalis Investments and SBI Investment.

Shield AI, operator of a defense technology company, raised $2.0B of Series G venture funding led by The Resilience Initiative, Advent International, and JP Morgan Chase at a pre-money valuation of $11.0B.

Nordic Knots, manufacturer of home furnishing products, raised an estimated $100.0M of venture funding in a deal led by Imaginary Ventures.

eMed, developer of a clinician-led GLP-1 care program, raised $200.0M of Series A venture funding led by Aon.

Cents, developer of laundromat management software, raised $140.0M of Series C venture funding led by Sumeru Equity Partners.

AIONX, developer of a hyperscale data center, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding through a combination of convertible debt and equity from Stoneweg Europe Stapled.

Polymarket, operator of an information market platform, raised $2.6B of Series D venture funding through a combination of debt and equity from Electric Feel Ventures, Intercontinental Exchange, and Dubin & Co. at a pre-money valuation of $8.0B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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Welcome back!

We’re excited to announce it’s officially the two year anniversary of The Wall Street Rollup! We are excited to deliver for you as we advance to 3x/week. If this is your first time reading the WSR, this news aggregator is part of the High Yield Harry and Buyside Hub umbrella.

Obviously, we’re at a bit of a standstill with the U.S. Iran war. Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum got extended out to the weekend. While the U.S. has been vocal about talks taking place, Iran is seemingly dismissing this and refusing to accept “unconditional surrender”. Iran has reportedly been focusing on defending Kharg Island in advance of any US operations to take control of the key export facilities. Iran has stated that “non-hostile” ships with no ties to the U.S. or Israel will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz. This weekend is going to be a massive inflection point towards if we get de-escelation or not. At the moment, the market is expecting a return to normalcy, but we don’t think it’s a done deal given the hot-headed nature of this war so far.

On Tuesday, we did a writeup on the S&P 500 laggards we think are going to be in trouble for a while. Our -40% off offer for WSR IC will end in 2 weeks given the large amount of content we’ve added over the past few months.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $KBH ( ▼ 0.14% ) KB Home missed on revenue at $1.08B vs. $1.10B, and EPS was in-line. Sales declined on lower home deliveries (-14%) and a drop in average selling price (-10%) as affordability pressure and higher mortgage rates weighed on demand. Margins were pressured as pricing came down while land and build costs remained elevated. The company is shifting back to a built-to-order model to better align supply with demand. Guidance was lowered as weaker orders and macro uncertainty are expected to weigh on deliveries and revenue.

• $CHWY ( ▲ 2.09% ) Chewy missed on revenue at $3.26B vs. $3.27B and on EPS, though active customers rose 4% and recurring Autoship orders remained a key support. Sales were held back by a flat pet market and margins improved on better mix, ads, and cost discipline. Guidance came in above expectations as continued customer growth and margin expansion are expected to drive results.

• $GME ( ▲ 2.69% ) GameStop missed on revenue as sales fell 11% y/y to $1.1B, but beat on EPS at $0.49 vs. $0.08, driven by cost cuts and higher margin categories like collectibles. The more notable story is the company building a $9B cash position, fueling speculation around a potential large scale acquisition.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Braze $BRZE ( ▼ 0.49% ) stock jumped after reporting strong 4Q results, with revenue beating estimates and accelerating to +27.9% y/y, solid bookings growth, and upbeat guidance that offset an EPS miss.

• Arm Holdings $ARM ( ▲ 2.31% ) surged after unveiling its first in-house AI data center CPU, marking a major shift away from its traditional licensing model and expanding its role in the AI infrastructure market.

• JetBlue Airways $JBLU ( ▲ 16.91% ) shares rise after reports that they’re pursuing a sale.

• On Holding $ONON ( ▲ 4.07% ) fell after announcing its CEO will step down, with co-founders stepping in as co-CEOs, raising questions around leadership stability as sales growth slows.

• Draft Kings $DKNG ( ▲ 2.0% ) declined amid regulatory overhang, as a proposed Senate betting bill and an NCAA lawsuit over “March Madness” branding raised concerns around growth and profitability.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• SpaceX is preparing to file for an IPO, targeting a $75B raise at a $1.75T valuation. The company is seeking a market debut in June.

• Japan’s IPO market struggles continued as J-Pharma Co. and Basic Inc. fell a respective 22% and 8% on their first day of trading.

• Club Med, a high-end resort chain club, is in talks with banks about a potential Hong Kong IPO.

For deeper, stock market research, including our recent piece on S&P 500 laggards, upgrade to the WSR Investing Club

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Claude Computer wow the world: Anthropic’s Claude can now autonomously carry out tasks on your computer like navigating a web browser or filling a spreadsheet. Users can prompt Claude from a phone and it will open apps on your computer to complete the task. The feature is currently available to Max or Pro subscribers.

• Private credit redemption caps: Apollo and Ares were hit with withdrawals, and stuck to their 5% limits after investors sought to redeem 11.2% and 11.6%, respectively. Inflows remained solid, but the financial media continues pushing a draconian private credit view to maximize clicks. While Public BDCs are trading at steep discounts and non-traded funds are capping redemptions, fresh capital continues flowing in.

• Private capital pivots from software to “HALO” assets: Private equity firms are rotating away from software into heavy, asset-backed industrial businesses, as AI disrupts SaaS valuations and stalls tech exits. This includes anything from manufacturers of ship engines to convey belt producers.

• OpenAI’s “guaranteed” return: OpenAI is offering PE firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% as it aims to outpace Anthropic in securing distribution partners. The deal would create a joint venture with the firms, raising fresh capital and accelerating AI adoption through the firms’ portfolio companies. TPG is set to serve as the anchor investor, with Advent, Bain, and Brookfield also participating.

• Private equity faces new scrutiny in childcare: Lawmakers open investigation into rising prices at PE-backed providers, specifically KinderCare Learning Companies and Learning Care Group.

• Private equity healthcare crackdown: Lawmakers propose cutting Medicare funding for PE-owned nursing homes, putting 400+ facilities at risk of losing a critical revenue. Senator Chris Murphy called out that nursing homes owned by PE have a 11% higher mortality rate.

• SMFG explores Jefferies acquisition: Jefferies $JEF ( ▲ 1.84% ) shares rose after reports that Japan’s SMFG is preparing a possible bid for the investment bank. SMFG already owns a 4.48% stake, as Jefferies’ stock remains down sharply this year amid credit quality concerns.

• Caa1-rated Planview turns to private credit for financing: Software firm Planview is approaching private lenders to address $1.5B+ in debt amid refinancing challenges and distressed trading levels.

• JPMorgan-led group boosted a junk loan tied to the buyout of Janus Henderson, increasing it from $2.0B to $2.6B after a $600mm bond sale was cancelled amid volatile markets. Final terms were set at S+275 at an OID of 99.5.

  • Victory Capital pulled their $9B offer for Janus Henderson after losing to Trian and General Catalyst, who raised their offer to $52 a share.

• Advent plans to invest $1B in the defense sector as global tensions rise, focusing “next-generation” defense technology and long-term security needs.

• BlackRock’s Rieder has reiterated his call for a rate cut despite the war, saying that “small businesses, young people, low income, are really getting hurt by this interest rate.”

• US mortgage rates climb to five-month high: The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.43%, making a third straight weekly increase driven by oil price concerns. Mortgage applications fell 10.5%, with refinancing down 14.6% and purchase activity down 5.4%.

• Meta and YouTube lost a social media addiction trial after jurors found that the companies were negligent and designed their apps to be addictive and harmful to children.

• OpenAI shuts down Sora video generator: OpenAI is discontinuing its Sora AI platform just months after signing a multiyear Disney licensing deal amid high operating costs for video generation and broader efforts to streamline operations.

M&A Transactions💭 

Nippon Sheet Glass (TKS: 5202), manufactures glass and glazing products, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.7B by Apollo Global Management through a public-to-private LBO. EV/EBITDA was 8.03x and EV/Revenue was 0.66x. NSG said on Tuesday that it would raise JPY 165.0B by issuing new shares to Apollo and delist after squeezing out minority shareholders for JPY 500.0M per share. The price represents a 23.5% premium to Monday’s close. As part of the deal Apollo will also inject JPY 140.0M of funds from major Japanese banks into NSG to repay debt they are owed, in effort converting debt to equity. The transaction will help to reduce NSG’s borrowings, which have climbed to JPY 500.0B.

Desktop (BVMF: DESK3), a telecommunications company, was acquired for BRL 4.0B by Claro NXT Telecomunicacoes. EV/EBITDA was 9.6x and EV/Revenue was 4.82x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Toyota Industries (TKS: 6201), engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobiles, was acquired for JPY 5.9T by Toyota Motor (TKS: 7203). EV/EBIT was 65.2x and EV/Revenue was 2.13x.

Retina & Vitreous of Texas, operator of a retina practice center, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Cencora. Jefferies advised on the sale.

Kobalt Music Group, operator of an independent music services company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Primary Wave Entertainment. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Huel, producer of nutritional powders, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.0B by Danone (PAR: BN).

Guardian Capital Group (TSE: GCG), a diversified financial services company, was acquired for CAD 1.67B by Desjardins Group. EV/EBITDA was 7.17x and EV/Revenue was 4.37x. BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank advised on the sale.

Grab Holdings (NAS: GRAB) has reached a definitive agreement to acquire The Foodpanda Delivery Business in Taiwan of Delivery Hero (ETR: DHER) for $600.0M.

800 Super Holdings, provider of environmental services, was acquired for SGD 540.0M by Actis and Mr. William Lee. The transaction values the company at an estimated SGD 600.0M.

Royal Challengers Sports, operator of a cricket sports franchise, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.78B by Aditya Birla Management, Times of India,, Bolt Ventures, and Blackstone. Citigroup advised on the sale.

Secil - Companhia Geral de Cal e Cimento, manufacturer of cement and building materials, was acquired for EUR 1.4B by Molins (MAD: CMO). EV/EBIDTA was 7.4x and EV/Revenue was 1.92x.

Rajasthan Royals, operator of a regional cricket team, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.63B by Mr. Kal Somani, Mr. Rob Waltona, and Ms. Sheila Ford Hamp.

MedMera Bank, provider of banking and financial services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for SEK 1.96B by Morrow Bank.

Avenir International Engineers and Consultants, provider of multidisciplinary engineering and consulting services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AED 708.0M by SEPC (BOM: 532945).

KKR has struck a deal to acquire U.S. bakery chain Nothing Bundt Cakes from Roark Capital for over $2.0B, including debt.

CoolIT Systems, manufacturer of computer hardware products, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.75B by Ecolab (NYS: ECL). Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

A Joint Venture was formed between Firstcolo and Ovag International for EUR 250.0M. The JV is the operator of a data center providing colocation and infrastructure services. Firstcolo will hold 80% stake and Ovag International will hold 20% stake in the company.

Zipline, developer of an autonomous aerial delivery systems, raised $800.0M of Series H venture funding led by Fidelity Management & Research Company at a pre-money valuation of $6.8M.

QCraft, developer of autonomous driving technology, raised $100.0M of Series D venture funding from Wonderland Capital, Ningbo Ninghai Xingtaihe Fund, and Liangxi Science and Technology Innovation Industry Fund of Funds.

Kandou AI, operator of a semiconductor hardware company, raised $225.0M of Series A venture funding led by Maverick Silicon at a pre-money valuation of $175.0M.

Hynaero, manufacturer of a large-capacity water bomber amphibious aircraft, raised EUR 117.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Earendil Labs, developer of an AI scientific computing platform, raised $787.0M of venture funding from Dimension Capital Management, 21Vita, and DST Global.

Dash0, developer of an observability software, raised $110.0M of Series B venture funding led by Balderton Capital at a pre-money valuation of $890.0M.

Sakana AI, operator of an AI driven information technology company, raised $135.0M of Series B venture funding led by Citigroup at a pre-money valuation of $130.0M.

Halter, developer of a livestock management software, raised $220.0M of Series E venture funding led by Founders Fund at a pre-money valuation of $1.78B.

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Odds of the Day 🍒 

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Welcome back.

We have roughly 24 hours to go until Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum is hit. The President posted this on Truth Social 24 hours ago:

In response, Iran has said it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz, hit vital infrastructure in the Middle East, and made warnings about purchasing US treasury bonds. On that note, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable MBS orders to try to stabilize the market.

S&P futures are -0.15% and Nasdaq futures are -0.23% currently; while Bitcoin is hanging onto $68k and Crude is sitting above $98/barrel. This follows a tough Friday where the S&P was -1.5% and Nasdaq was -2% respectively following the deployment of thousands of Marines to the Middle East.

The rise in oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz being closed would be quite stark, so that reality coupled with this ultimatum gives us a base case that peak escalation will come to a head this week. Treasury Secretary Bessent himself has called for “50 days of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes.”

Today’s piece is in partnership with Buyside Hub’s Annual Compensation Report and Job Board. The Buyside Hub Job Board has hundreds of jobs including Private Equity roles and a first-time CEO role for professionals looking to exit PE.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Tuesday: GameStop, KB Home, Smithfield Foods, AAR Corp, Braze

• Wednesday: Paychex, Chewy

• Thursday: Commercial Metals, Designer Brands

• Friday: Carnival Corporation

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Construction spending (0.1%)

• Tuesday: U.S. productivity revision (1.8%), S&P flash U.S. services PMI, S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI

• Wednesday: Import price index (0.7%), Import price index minus fuel

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210,000)

• Friday: Consumer sentiment final (54.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

•  $ACN ( ▼ 0.82% ) Accenture beat on revenue and EPS, with revenue at $18.04B vs. $17.8B and EPS at $2.93 vs. $2.82. Growth was driven by strong AI and cloud demand alongside record bookings of $22.1B, signaling solid enterprise tech spend. Margins expanded on cost discipline and shift towards higher margin AI and consulting work. Yet guidance was below expectations as federal spending weakness and slower conversion of bookings limit near-term growth.

• $BABA ( ▲ 2.61% ) Alibaba missed revenue ($40.7B vs. $40.9B) and EPS expectations. Strong cloud and AI demand alongside rapid quick commerce growth were offset by weak core e-commerce and softer China consumer spending. Margins were pressured as heavy investment in AI infrastructure, user acquisition, and fast delivery drove a sharp rise in sales & marketing and logistics costs. Guidance came in below expectations as continued investment and weak core e-commerce trends are expected to pressure margins and limit profitability.

• $FDX ( ▼ 0.47% ) FedEx beat revenue ($24.0B vs. $23.4B) and EPS ($5.25 vs. $4.09) driven by strong parcel demand and pricing gains across express and ground. Growth was supported by higher volumes and fuel surcharges, while Network 2.0 cost cuts (facility consolidation + automation) drove efficiency and margin expansion despite higher wages and transport costs. Guidance came in above expectations as cost savings and global demand support earnings.

• $DRI ( ▲ 3.17% ) Darden best revenue at $3.35B vs. $3.33B and EPS was in line. Strong SSS at Olive Garden and LongHorn drove growth. Sales were supported by steady traffic and value-focused menu offerings, alongside new openings. Margins were slightly pressured by higher beef and marketing costs. Guidance was raised on continued comp strength, with $25M planned to convert underperforming Bahama Breeze locations into stronger brands.

• $SIG ( ▲ 0.5% ) Signet missed on revenue with $2.3B and beat on EPS. Comps were down 0.7% because of weaker consumer demand, tariff pressure, and higher gold costs. Margins held up on cost control and buybacks. The company is closing about 100 stores and focusing on core brands to improve profitability. Guidance was cautious with comps expected between -1.25% and +2.5% amid ongoing macro pressure.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 4.74% ) stock plunges after co-founder Yih Shyan Liaw’s indictment for alleged illegal exports to China.

• Vistra $VST ( ▲ 3.65% )  Talen $TLN ( ▲ 6.04% )  Constellation $CEG ( ▲ 1.68% ) and NRG $NRG ( ▲ 0.42% ) all fell due to regulatory uncertainty and reports that major tech hyperscalers are pulling back from several larger power deals.

• Space stocks like Planet Labs $PL ( ▼ 1.14% ) and York Space Systems $YSS ( ▲ 1.74% ) jumped on Friday following good numbers and wall street price target raises.

• Venture Global $VG ( ▼ 1.88% ) rose as Iranian strikes crippled Qatar’s LNG capacity, tightening supply and boosting U.S. producers.

• Elliott is building a multi-billion dollar stake in Synopsys $SNPS ( ▲ 0.25% )  

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Yotta Data Services, an Nvidia-backed data center in India, is looking to raise $500M-$600M in a pre-IPO round at $4B valuation before filing for a domestic IPO.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• OpenAI plans to almost double its headcount next year to 8,000, deploying most of the new hires across product development, engineering, research, and sales. This comes as OpenAI is planning to fuse its Chat, Coding, and Browser offerings together into a singular “superapp” to simplify the user experience and shift more towards Enterprise.

• Airlines may face jet fuel shortages as soon as next month from the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing cancellations for long-haul flights.

  • Meanwhile, Airline security lines across the U.S. are in a dire state following TSA staffing shortages. ICE agents will be deployed on Monday to assist with non-screening duties.

• Unilever is in talks to separate its food business, which could be worth tens of billions, and combine it with spice maker McCormick in a potential all-stock deal. The remaining Unilever company would focus solely on beauty, personal-care, and home products.

• Pentagon fast-tracks AI battlefield integration with Palantir’s Maven: The Defense Department plans to formalize Maven’s Smart System as a program of record, securing stable funding and accelerating AI-enabled targeting and sensor-to-shooter integration across combat operations.

• Coatue prepares to launch a new AI-focused fund and will close its existing $8B long-only fund to focus on the strategy. The new vehicle will be structured as a long-biased crossover fund, and comes at a time when AI and tech startups are staying private for longer periods.

• Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund posted its first loss since 2022 as BCRED fell 0.4% in February. Blackstone says the loss reflected wider spreads and unrealized marks on individual names, including Thoma Bravo’s Medallia.

  • Additionally, BCRED is planning to finalize a CLO deal early this week, with the AAA tranche expected to price at S+130.

• EA’s debt sale has drawn ~$25B in demand from investors for its $15B offering to fund the buyout of the company.

• ION Group has increased bond buybacks as short interest builds amid concern over the software sector. A note from ION Platform is currently trading at 93 cents, with about 18% of float on loan to short sellers.

• BNP Paribas increases synthetic SRT exposure: BNP Paribas increased its securitized exposure to originated synthetic significant risk transfers by 43% last year to €66.7B, reinforcing its position as a leading issuer.

  • ECB scrutinizes leverage in SRT deals: The ECB is asking banks to identify lenders providing leverage to SRT investors, amid concerns over hidden risks and shifting credit risk without moving loans off balance sheets.

• Nexstar reshuffled its $6.9B Tegna buyout package toward bonds, boosting total bond sales to $5.12B and cutting the leveraged loan by $1B, as appetite for risky debt softens in volatile markets.

• GLP bonds fall on regulatory concerns: GLP’s 2028 bonds slid to 75 cents on the dollar, its biggest weekly drop on record, after reports that Chinese regulators informally urged insurers to limit dealings with the firm.

• Echelon owners explore potential €4.5B sale: Starwood Capital and founder Niall Molloy are weighing a partial or full sale of Echelon Data Centres, with a process that could launch in weeks.

• JPMorgan and BNP Paribas launched a $4.7B loan leveraged loan offering to back Clayton Dubilier & Rice’s $6.2B buyout of Sealed Air, testing investor appetite amid volatile credit markets.

• Banks enable private credit shorts: JPMorgan and Goldman are among the banks offering hedge funds ways to bet against private credit by assembling baskets of listed companies with exposure to the space.

• Project Hail Mary opened to the biggest box office of 2026, earnings $80mm domestically and $140mm worldwide.

• The Fed’s Bowman still expects 3 rate cuts by YE to support the labor market, which has begun to show signs of softness. Bowman adds that she expects strong economic growth this year, but remains uncertain of the Iran war’s economic impact.

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M&A Transactions

Tegna (NYS: TGNA), a media company, was acquired for $6.595B by Nexstar Media Group (NAS: NXST). EV/EBITDA was 12.71x and EV/Revenue was 2.43x. Allen & Company advised on the sale.

CoolIT Systems, a provider of advanced liquid cooling technology for AI data centers, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $4.75B by Ecolab (NYS: ECL). Citi acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Ecolab.

Owen Mumford, manufacturer of medical devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 150.0M by Embecta (NAS: EMBC). EV/Revenue was 2.22x.

Madison Fire & Rescue, manufacturer of fire and rescue equipment and safety technology systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.95B by 3M and Bain Capital.

KANAMEL, operator of a joint holding company intended for content production, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $233.0M by Nippon Televsion (TKS: 9404). The potential transaction values the company at an estimated $291.5M.

Arlington Capital Partners entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Defense Unit of Eptec through a $150.0M LBO.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Oasis Security, developer of a non-human identity management platform, raised $120.0M of Series B venture funding led by Craft Ventures.

Cloaked, developer of personalized privacy software, raised $375.0M of Series B venture funding led by General Catalyst and Liberty City Ventures.

Cape, operator of a privacy-first mobile carrier intended to protect user data, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Bain Capital Ventures and IVP.

Advanced Machine Intelligence, developer of advanced AI computational systems, raised $1.03B of Seed Funding in a deal led by Cathay Innovation, Greycroft, and Hiro Capital at a pre-money valuation of $3.5B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

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Welcome back,

The market tumbled yesterday after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, reinforcing some worries that inflation is reaccelerating, especially after hot PPI #s (+0.7% m/m vs. est. of 0.3%). More pressingly though, the conflict in the middle east is ongoing and continuing to escalate. Iran’s intelligence minister was killed, with Iran vowing revenge and diplomatic prospects dimming. On Wednesday, Qatar said Iranian missiles extensively damaged Ras Laffan Industrial City, a key LNG export facility. ~20% of the world's supply moves through this facility.

According to the WSJ, President Trump doesn’t want any more strikes on Iranian energy sites following an Israeli attack on a vital Iranian gas field yesterday. Trump is also considering thousands more U.S. troops to reinforce operations in the Middle East.

For investors looking for some sort of “TACO”, you can’t really a “TACO” a war, so we remain cautious until there’s some level of de-escalation and a clear path towards sustained, lower oil prices.

Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $MU ( ▲ 9.17% ) Micron revenue nearly tripled y/y and beat at $23.86B vs. $20.07B, while EPS beat at $12.20 vs. $9.31 as AI driven demand for memory (especially tied to Nvidia chips) drove higher volumes while limited industry supply pushed pricing higher. Results were driven by high bandwidth memory tied to AI chips alongside strength in cloud and mobile, with Micron shifting production toward higher margin AI memory, tightening supply elsewhere and pushing margins higher. Guidance was well above expectations with revenue at $33.5B vs. $24.3B and EPS at $19.15 vs. $12.05, reflecting continued AI demand outpacing supply, while capex is set to ramp to meet demand.

• $LULU ( ▼ 1.21% )  Lululemon beat revenue expectations at $3.64B while missing on EPS as continued weakness in the Americas and margin pressure from tariffs and promotional activity weighed on profitability. Soft U.S. demand has driven declining comps and heavier discounting, while higher input costs and tariff headwinds further pressured margins, though international growth remains strong with early signs of improvement from new product initiatives. Guidance came in below expectations on both revenue and EPS.

• $DOCU ( ▼ 1.74% )  DocuSign beat on both revenue and EPS. Growth was supported by increasing adoption of its AI driven IAM platform, which is scaling quickly and becoming a larger contributor to ARR, alongside solid billings growth. Guidance came in above expectations.

• $DLTR ( ▼ 1.43% )  Dollar Tree revenue came in roughly in line, while EPS beat, driven by solid same store sales growth and improved free cash flow. Strength was supported by higher ticket sizes and continued execution on its multi price strategy, though traffic declined, pointing to weaker underlying demand, while cost pressures limit margins. Guidance came in below expectations as weak traffic and a pressured consumer point to softer demand.

• $M ( ▼ 0.68% )  Macy’s beat on revenue and EPS, driven by higher spend per customer and strength in higher-end segments like Bloomingdale’s, which offset weaker traffic. Results reflected a split consumer, with higher income demand holding up while lower income consumers remain pressured. Guidance came in below expectations as a pressured consumer and discretionary weakness point to softer demand.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Fannie and Freddie $FNMA ( ▼ 0.97% ) stock tumbled as investors decreased expectations for near-term privatization and recapitalization, sending shares to their lowest level in over a year.

• SoFi $SOFI ( ▲ 5.04% ) stock fell amid facing and challenging allegations from short seller Muddy Waters about irregularities and hidden debt.

• Six Flags $FUN ( ▲ 2.29% ) is facing activity pressure from Jana Partners, who is pushing the company to explore a sale and replace board chair.

• Gemini $GEMI ( ▲ 6.25% ) fell hard after Citi cut its price targets, saying the company is years away from profitability and is struggling to compete.

IPO News 📍 

• Swarmer, an AI drone software firm, surged 520% on its first day of trading after pricing shares at $5. This lifted its market cap above $380M despite just $310K in 2025 revenue.

The rest of the IPO and financing markets are at a bit of a standstill due to the market volatility.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Fed holds rates steady, flags slower inflation progress: The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and signals a possible cut in 2026. Powell acknowledged inflation is easing “not as much as we had hoped”, warned of risks from oil and tariffs, and said the Fed is “not on a preset course” as markets slide on stagflation concerns.

• Qualtrics stays hung: A JPM-led group of banks has halted a $5.3B syndication of Qualtrics debt after fears of AI disruption spooked investors. Qualtrics’ $1.5B in existing debt is now trading at 86 cents on the dollar, showcasing how rapid AI worries have hit the name.

• OpenAI is in talks for $10B joint venture with PE firms including TPG, Brookfield, and Bain. The investors would commit about $4B toward the venture, which OpenAI described as “building a deployment arm” for its technology to bolster the adoption of its AI software.

  • Additionally, Anthropic is in similar talks with PE firms, including Blackstone, about forming a joint venture to sell its Claude software to businesses.

• Orlando Bravo has confidence in his software portfolio, arguing that deep sector expertise will separate winners and losers as AI disrupts the industry. Bravo says the firm has “been living in the details of the space” rather than taking broad exposure, and that “everybody’s extremely comfortable.”

• Blackstone backs $1.3B pharma merger financing: Blackstone Credit & Insurance is leading a $1.3B financing to support the merger of Paratek Pharmaceuticals and Radius Health, forming a scaled specialty pharma platform expected to generate nearly $1B in annual revenue in 2026.

• JPMorgan pushes for $2B debt sale for Janus buyout: The bank is marketing a $2B leveraged loan to finance Trian and General Catalyst’s buyout of Janus Henderson.

• DayOne Data Centers is looking to boost its existing loan to $7B, up from $3.4B, to expand its AI operations in Malaysia. The deal would be the largest borrowing for the sector by any firm in Asia.

• Wes Edens reached a deal with creditors to restructure New Fortress Energy Inc, cutting the company’s debt by 90%. The transaction will split the LNG provider into two companies, with creditors exchanging their existing $5.7B of debt into debt and equity of the newly created public entity, named New NFE.

• Banks weigh hybrid bond sale to fund Nexstar’s $6B Tegna Deal: Lenders led by Bank of America are exploring an investment-grade secured bond offering alongside high-yield debt and a $2.75B leveraged loan to finance Nexstar’s acquisition of Tegna, aiming to lower borrowing costs amid unstable credit markets.

• Blank Street pivots to a larger cafe model: The venture-backed chain is leaving its tiny, to-go format for larger, seating-heavy stores aimed at being a Gen Z hangout spot, marking a strategic shift as growth slows and competition intensifies.

• Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern rail deal faces regulatory headwinds: The Surface Transportation Board has requested additional documentation on competition and expansion impacts before the $72B merger can be refiled.

• Kirkland tops $10B revenue mark with record partner pay: Kirkland & Ellis became the first law firm to surpass $10B in annual revenue, with equity partners earning a record average of $11.1M in 2025.

• Low valuations for MLB teams are an opportunity for PE firms, who are able to take up to a 15% stake in teams.

• Unilever is weighing separating its food business to focus on its beauty, personal care, and wellbeing brands. The Hellmann’s mayonnaise maker is considering either spinning off the entire food business or keeping some brands while separating the rest.

• Bob Iger is officially out and Disney has a new CEO, with Josh D’Amaro stepping into the role. D’Amaro was previously the chairman of Disney Experiences, and will now look to embrace technology to drive engagement and growth across the company.

M&A Transactions💭 

Perpetual Wealth Management Group, operator of corporate trust and wealth management business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 550.0M by Bain Capital. EV/Revenue was 2.56x.

A Portfolio of 900 MW Natural Gas-Fueled Turbines was acquired by Solaris Energy Infrastructure through an estimated $620.0M LBO. The transaction was supported by $300.0M of debt financing.

Societa Trattamento Acque, provider of liquid waste treatment and disposal plant services, was acquired by Hera (MIL: HER) for EUR 138.0M. EV/Revenue was 5.73x. Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

ReSound, developer of digital hearing aids, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for DKK 17.0B by Amplifon (MIL: AMP).

Quipt Home Medical, a provider of durable medical equipment, was acquired for $260.0M by Kingswood Capital Management and Forager Capital Management. EV/EBITDA was 5.17x and EV/Revenue was 0.98x. Truist Securities advised on the sale.

Inflection Point Acquisition IV, a blank check company, was acquired by Merlin Labs through a reverse merger for $800.0M, resulting in the combined entity trading on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol MRLN. EV/Net Income was 133.15x. Cantor Fitzgerald, Cohen & Company, Newbridge Securities, and TD Cowen advised on the sale.

GNQ Insilico, operator of a healthcare company, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire IB Acquisition (NAS: IBAC) through a $500.0M reverse merger, resulting in the combined entity trading on the NYSE under the ticker IBAC.

ESAero, manufacturer of unmanned aerial systems and urban air mobility, was acquired for $200.0M by AeroVironment (NAS: AVAV).

Care.com, developer of an online platform, was acquired for $320.0M by Pacific Avenue Capital Partners. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Confluent, operates in the data streaming platform category, was acquired for $11.947B by International Business Machines (NYS: IBM). EV/Revenue was 10.24x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

BVNK, developer of an enterprise-grade payments, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired $1.8B by MasterCard (NYS: MA).

SBI Savings Bank, operator of a banking institution, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for KRW 300.0M by Kyobo Life Insurance. EV/Net Income was 14.21x.

Enviropacific Services, provider petrochemical and engineered environment services, was acquired for $200.0M Veolia Environnement. EV/Revenue was 0.82x.

TheGuarantors, operator of a rental coverage platform, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Warburg Pincus.

Ferrero Group acquired Bold Snacks, a leading Brazilian protein snack company.

Audax Private Equity buys property manager AKAM from Nautic.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Humans&, developer of an AI system, raised $500.0M through a combination of Seed-1, Seed-2, and Seed-3 and convertible debt led by SV Angel and Georges Harik at a pre-money valuation of $4.0B.

Frore Systems, developer of thermal management chips, raised $143.0M of Series D venture funding led by MVP Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $1.5B.

D-Robotics, manufacturer of the humanoid robot, raised $120.0M of Series B+ venture funding from Beijing Automotive Group Industrial Investment, DiDi Global, and Dragon Capital.

Beast Industries, operator of a creator-led content-to-commerce platform, raised $225.0M of venture funding led by BitMine Immersion Technologies.

Upvest, developer of an investment API designed to empower financial institutions, raised $125.0M of Series D venture funding led by Tencent Holdings and Sapphire Ventures.

Shokhin Airlines, operator of an airline company, raised $200.0M of venture from CFC Fund.

Kindley Re, provider of life and annuity reinsurance services, raised $250.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Imperative Care, operator of commercial-stage medical technology company, raised $100.0M of venture funding in the form of convertible debt led by Elevage Medical Technologies and Perceptive Advisors.

Advantage Navigation, developer of navigation and positioning systems, raised AUD 158.0M of Series C venture funding led by Airtree Ventures.

XBOW, developer of an AI security software, raised $120.0M of venture funding led by DFJ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $880.0M.

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Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 20% chance of Duke winning March Madness, and a 20% chance of Michigan winning March Madness.

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Together With

Welcome back!

Futures are up slightly, even as oil has topped $100 and the Trump administration is threatening strikes on Iran’s export facilities if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened. The S&P 500 was down -1.5% last week. Over the weekend, the U.S. struck targets on Kharg Island, a vital export terminal. The U.S. did not hit key infrastructure as this was meant as a warning shot towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is planning a coalition to escort ships, but the announcement and operations regarding this are still in discussion.

There’s been a ton of noise in the market due to geopolitics and the deterioration of software moats, as many of you have seen in our WSR IC pieces. The Fed will announce their rate decision on Wednesday, but per Polymarket, the odds of “no change” in rates is at 99.7%. The more interesting market we’re looking at is whether rate cut odds will change for June - currently Polymarket traders are expecting “no change” (62%) vs. 30% expecting a 25bps decrease.

Some exciting news btw:

We are moving to 3x/week in April. This is really exciting to ensure our emails are reaching you as we move into 3x/week - feel free to reply to us a “Hello” or a little note for us!

Let’s get into it!

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Dollar Tree, WW International

• Tuesday: lululemon, DocuSign, Academy Sports, Bob's Discount Furniture

• Wednesday: Micron, Williams-Sonoma, General Mills, Five Below, Jabil Inc, Macy's

• Thursday: Alibaba Group, Accenture, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, Signet Jewelers

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey (4.1), Industrial production (0.1%), Capacity utilization (76.2%)

• Tuesday: Pending home sales (-1.0%), Home builder confidence index (37)

• Wednesday: Producer price index (0.3%), Core PPI, PPI y/y, Core PPI y/y, Factory orders (0.2%), FOMC interest-rate decision

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (11), Wholesale inventories, New home sales (715,000)

• Friday: None scheduled

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• $ADBE ( ▼ 1.83% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue at $6.4B vs. $6.28B and an EPS of $6.06 vs. $5.88 as strong subscription demand across Creative Cloud and Acrobat drove growth. AI products such as Firefly are gaining traction with AI driven revenue more than tripling, but is negligible relative to the headwinds Adobe is facing. Adobe also announced CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down once a successor is appointed. Q2 guidance came in above expectations, but shares fell.

• $DG ( ▲ 0.28% ) Top and bottom line beat as same store sales rose 4.3% driven by higher customer traffic and spending across consumables and seasonal categories. The company guided same store sales growth of 2.2%–2.7%, roughly in line with expectations, signaling a more cautious consumer environment.

• $ULTA ( ▲ 1.2% ) Revenue beat at $3.90B while EPS slightly missed. Net sales rose 11.8% as higher ticket sizes and transaction growth drove comparable sales gains. Guidance came in slightly below expectations with same store sales projected at 2.5–3.5%, signaling more moderate growth.

• $LEN ( ▼ 1.07% ) Revenue missed at $6.62B while EPS also came in below expectations as high mortgage rates and affordability pressures weighed on housing demand. Revenue fell 13% y/y as lower home deliveries and price incentives aimed at boosting affordability pressured results. New orders guidance of 21k–22k homes came in below expectations.

• $DKS ( ▲ 2.69% ) Revenue and EPS beat as strong holiday demand drove comparable sales up 3.1%. However, guidance of $13.50–$14.50 came in below expectations as costs tied integrating with the recently acquired Foot Locker business are expected to pressure profits.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Klarna $KLAR ( ▲ 2.15% ) stock surged as Chair Michael Moritz purchased 3.47M shares worth $50M, even as the stock remains down roughly 60% from its IPO price.

• ServiceTitan $TTAN ( ▼ 0.02% ) stock fell after reporting Q4 revenue of $253.99M and a net loss of $41.74M YoY, despite naming Abhishek Mathur as CTO.

• Once Upon a Farm $OFRM ( ▲ 1.34% ) is down after forecasting slower sales growth and weaker margins.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Q4 GDP revised sharply lower: Q4 growth was cut from 1.4% to 0.7%, well below the 1.5% forecast, marking a slowdown from 4.4% in Q3. January core PCE rose 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target as stagflation risks resurface.

• Mortgage rates hit highest level since September: The average 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.41% after hitting a multiyear low of 5.99% just two weeks ago, as bond yields surged following the Iran conflict.

• Meta is reportedly planning layoffs that hit 20% or more of its 79k person workforce, according to Reuters.

  • However, Meta reps said, "This is a speculative report about theoretical approaches." Regardless, Zuck is now stranger to mass layoffs, and Meta has been overspending on AI development & talent with little to show up for thus far.

  • Meta will delay its new AI model, “Avocado,” as it has underperformed vs competing models from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Executives have even discussed temporarily licensing Gemini models as a result.

• More on the latest in Iran: Six U.S. crew members were killed when their military refueling plane crashed in Iraq, marking 12 U.S. service members who have been killed since the Iran war began. Iran’s new supreme leader was wounded early in the war, with the Iranian media claiming excellent health while Trump says he’s hearing that the supreme leader is “not alive.” Additionally, Trump has called on allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, hoping for assistance in freeing it up as the chokehold has pushed oil prices to ~$100 a barrel.

• Fertilizer shortages rattle farmers: Farmers in the US and Canada are facing supply shortfalls as the war in Iran disrupts over 30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, driving prices up more than 30% and threatening planting season margins.

• Blue Owl Capital urges investors to reject Saba tender: The firm’s OBDC II BDC is pushing back against a Saba and Cox Capital offer priced at a 33% discount to NAV, saying shareholders would be giving up a “high-performing” portfolio. Saba is betting investors prefer immediate liquidity amid private credit volatility.

• JPMorgan prepares $30B+ in LBO debt sales: The bank is preparing to launch high-yield bonds and leveraged loan deals to fund the buyouts of Electronic Arts, Sealed Air, and Qualtrics. Despite Iran war volatility and AI-driven pressure, JPMorgan is betting investors will step in for attractively priced debt.

• Vivid Seats’ debt sinks deeper into distress: The company’s $390M term loan due 2029 is now quoted in the 30s cents on the dollar range, down from the mid-50s in November, after Q4 revenue fell 37% to $126.8M and a $428.7M net loss.

• Carlyle overhauls flagship European buyout team ahead of fundraising return: The firm prepares to relaunch its flagship European fund after a two-year pause, following a troubled 2018 vintage that posted a negative IRR and 1.1x MOIC on exits.

• TikTok fee: The Trump Administration will receive $10B from Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX and other investors as a fee for brokering the TikTok deal. The administration will also share profits with ByteDance, who still owns nearly 20% of the company.

• Agentic AI could push unemployment past 30% for recent college grads according to ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott, who says that it will “be challenging for young people to differentiate themselves in the corporate environment” as companies increase automation to cut jobs and lower costs.

• Anthropic is reportedly in talks with Blackstone and other PE firms to form a joint venture embedding Claude across portfolio companies, potentially accelerating cost cuts and adding pressure to SaaS names.

• Disney+ is rolling out Verts, a short-form video feed that lets users scroll through clips of movies and TV shows.

• Triton Partners raised €5.5B for its sixth flagship PE fund, about 10% larger than Triton V and a successful raise following allegations of inappropriate behavior from some executives.

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M&A Transactions💭 

Allianz (ETR: ALV), a transport and accident insurance company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AED 2.605B by Sanlam Maroc (CAS: SAH). EV/EBITDA was 0.04x and EV/Net Income was 0.06x.

ProofX, operator of a generative AI platform, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $337.0M by Fuva Brain (TKS: 3927).

Alexander & Baldwin, a Hawaii commercial real estate company, was acquired for $2.033B by Aiea Business Group, Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, and DivcoWest. EV/EBITDA was 16.15x and EV/Revenue was 9.84x. Bank of America advised on the sale.

The Thermal Management Solutions Business of Boyd was acquired for $9.5B by Eaton (NYS: ETN). Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Cemex Colombia, manufacturer and supplier of cement, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $555.0M Holcim (SWX: HOLN).

Eastdil Secured, operator of a real estate investment bank, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.125B by Savills (LON: SVS). EV/EBITDA was 9.96x and EV/Revenue was 1.78x.

Korean Air Catering & Duty Free Services was acquired for KRW 750.0B by Korean Air Lines Company (KRX: 003490).

MNC Solutions (KRX: 484870), engaged in the development of domestically produced electric drive devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for KRW 945.0B by Korea Search Investment Partners. The transaction values the company at KRW 1.0T. UBS Group advised on the sale.

Signature Bank, operator of a commercial bank, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $348.4M by Esquire Bank (NAS: ESQ). Raymond James advised on the sale.

Urban Campus, operator of coliving and coworking campuses, was acquired for EUR 600.0M by Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

CNL Healthcare Properties, operator of a real estate investment trust, was acquired for $1.831B by Sonida Senior Living (NYS: SNDA). EV/EBITDA was 21.4x and EV/Revenue was 4.66x. KeyBanc Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Wiz, developer of a cloud security platform, was officially acquired for $32.0B by Alphabet (NAS: GOOGL). EV/Revenue was 32.0x. Barclays, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Zero One Automotive, manufacturer of intelligent heavy-duty transport, raised CNY 1.2B of venture funding from Beijing Momenta Technology Company, CATL Capital, and NIO Capital.

Wonderful, developer of AI-based software platform, raised $150.0M of Series B venture funding led by Insight Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.85B.

Tropic, developer of gene editing technology, raised $105.0M of Series C venture funding led by Corteva and Forbion.

Sunday, operator of an AI agent platform, raised $165.0M of Series B venture funding led by Coatue Management at a pre-money valuation of $1.34B.

ORO Labs, developer of a procurement orchestration company, raised $100.0M of Series C venture funding led by Goldman Sachs Growth Equity and Brighton Park Capital.

MainFunc, developer of a search engine platform, raised $385.0M of Series B venture funding led by LG Technology Ventures, SBI Investment, and Emergence Equity Management at a pre-money valuation of $1.22B.

Grafana Labs, developer of a performance monitoring platform, raised $250.0M of Series E venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $8.75B.

Alsphere Technology, developer of general visual multi-modal large models, raised $300.0M of Series C venture funding led by CDH Investment.

WayCool, developer of an omnichannel fresh produce distribution platform, raised $2.1B of venture funding from Lightrock.

Qualified Health, developer of generative AI infrastructure, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding from SignalFire and New Enterprise Associates.

Perpetual Next, developer of a climate technology designed to reuse waste streams, raised EUR 200.0M of Series B venture funding from Martijn van Rheenen and Momentum Global Ventures.

Calterah, manufacturer of millimeter-wave radar semiconductor chips, raised over CNY 1.0B of Series E venture funding from several national-level industrial funds.

Axiom, developer of a quantitively superintelligence technology, raised $200.0M of Series A venture funding led by Menlo Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $1.4B.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Via NewEdge Capital Group

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Together with Pegasus Insights

Welcome back!

Oil had given up a lot of its gains since we last spoke, but as of last night Crude is back above $100 as Oman is evacuating all vessels from its primary oil export terminal.

Relief is coming, but last night’s price action may show it’s not enough. The US is drawing 172mm barrels of oil from the strategic release, part of the IEA’s plan to release 400mm barrels of oil to ease oil prices and cover the gap filled by the Strait of Hormuz being at a standstill. This marks the largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks in the agency’s history, and represents about 20 days worth of supply coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. This comes as three commercial ships were struck near the strait, with Tehran firing after a ship ignored warnings and threats for “illegally insisting on passing through the Strait of Hormuz.” The US’s reserve currently contains 415mm barrels of oil, 60% of capacity.

Btw, we’ll have a one-off email regarding the newly released Buyside Hub compensation report in your inbox later today as a headsup. Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $ORCL ( ▲ 4.74% ) Top and bottom line beat with sales of $17.19B vs. $16.9B and EPS of $1.79 vs. $1.70 as strong demand for AI infrastructure continued driving cloud growth. Cloud revenue rose to $8.9B while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure sales reached $4.9B, supported by large AI training workloads and new data center capacity. Revenue guidance was raised to $90B vs. $86.6B expected.

• $MTN ( ▼ 0.81% ) Revenue missed at $1.08B vs $1.11B while EPS missed at $5.87 vs $6.06. Results were hurt by historically low snowfall and unusually warm temperatures across the Rockies, which reduced skiable terrain and drove skier visits down about 12%, weighing on revenue. Guidance was lowered as the company expects continued pressure from a weak season.

• $BMBL ( ▲ 5.31% ) Revenue beat while EPS missed big at -$4.06 vs. $0.24. Subscriptions fell 20% y/y as demand remains soft, though higher spending per user helped support revenue. Guidance came in slightly above expectations as product improvements and new AI features support the company’s turnaround strategy.

• $WOOF ( ▼ 1.06% ) Revenue came in roughly in line at $1.52B while EPS missed. Comparable sales fell 1.6% as weak store traffic weighed on demand while the company continued closing underperforming locations. Guidance topped expectations as cost controls and store closures improved profitability outlook.

• $KSS ( ▲ 1.19% ) Revenue missed at $5.17B vs. $5.23B while EPS beat. In store sales fell 2.8% as weak fall seasonal merchandising and less aggressive holiday promotions weighed on demand, while severe winter storms shaved roughly 70 bps from comps as store closures weighed on traffic. Gross margin improved on tighter inventory and cost controls.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Nebius $NBIS ( ▲ 4.78% ) jumped following a $2B investment from Nvidia, forming a partnership to develop and build data centers. The deal will help Nebius deploy over 5 GW of Nvidia systems by 2030, mirroring the deal Nvidia made with CoreWeave back in January.

• Papa John’s $PZZA ( ▼ 0.06% ) rose after a Qatari-backed fund submitted a bid to take the company private at $47 a share, a 50% premium that would value the company at $1.5B.

• Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 0.99% ) surged as Novo Nordisk dropped its patent infringement case, with Hims agreeing to sell Ozempic and Wegovy at the same price as other telehealth platforms.

• Campbell’s $CPB ( ▼ 0.84% ) slid after cutting its profit outlook amid supply constraints and weak demand for chips and pretzels.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Pershing Square has filed for an IPO on the NYSE, seeking to raise $5B to $10B in a combined deal for the hedge fund and a new closed-end fund. This is Ackman’s second go at an IPO after the first in 2024 was pulled amid weak investor demand.

• Carlyle-backed Quest Global has begun discussions for a potential Mumbai IPO that could raise up to $1B, with a mix of primary shares and secondary sales.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Inflation holds at 2.4% amid global oil price spike: February CPI rose 2.4% YoY, unchanged from January but above the Fed’s 2% target. Gas prices have jumped 19% since the Iran conflict began, raising risks that inflation could reaccelerate if energy prices stay high.

• Ares reassures staff as redemptions rise: CEO Mike Arougheti held a town hall amid private credit volatility, after one of its funds received 5.6% in redemption requests last quarter. Shares fell 4.8% Wednesday and are now down 36% YTD.

• Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap private credit withdrawals: Cliffwater’s $33B fund limited Q1 redemptions to 7% after investors requested a record 14%, while Morgan Stanley’s $8B North Haven fund limited withdrawals at 5%. Private Credit managers have been trying to hold the line at the normal 5%, quarterly redemption levels.

• JPMorgan marks down private credit loans: The bank is reining in software-backed loans as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity in its back-leverage business.

• Cursor is reportedly seeking funding at a $50B valuation, nearly doubling its late-2025 $29.3B mark and overcoming fears by some investors regarding the shift from Cursor toward competing tools like Claude Code.

• Salesforce’s $25B bond sale saw muted demand: The company drew $36B in orders separated into eight parts, just 1.4x oversubscribed and well below Amazon’s comparable $126B order book. Investors flagged AI disruption risks and a debt-funded $50B buyback.

  • Meanwhile, Honeywell Aerospace raises $16B in debut bond sale: The aerospace unit priced a nine-part investment-grade deal ahead of its 2026 spinoff, with the longest 40-year tranche tightening to +107 bps over Treasuries.

• Atlassian has announced 10% layoffs impacting 1,600 workers, citing an AI-driven shift in workforce needs. This appears to be the 2nd shoe to drop in software following Block’s 40% reduction. Shares rose 2% after hours but remain down over 50% YTD.

• Nvidia announced a new investment into Thinking Machines Lab, an AI company founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati. The deal will supply Thinking Machines with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin AI accelerators, providing at least 1 GW of compute power.

• Warburg-backed PDG plans to raise $5B in debt to fund data center buildout across Asia, expanding capacity beyond its current 1.8 GW portfolio. PDG will borrow against future revenue, having “rock solid contracts with hyperscalers” already in place.

• Starboard took a $350mm stake in CarMax and is seeking two board seats. The activist sees an opportunity to boost performance by improving its customer experience, cutting costs, and changing its pricing structure.

• Google is selling its fiber unit, combining its GFiber unit into Astound Broadband to create an independent fiber provider.

• Grubhub is testing drone food delivery, partnering with drone delivery company Dexa for a 3-month trial in Green Brook, NJ.

• Iran conflict triggered major losses for hedge funds, with Citadel, Point72, Millennium, and Balyasny all down ~$1B or more as equities wavered and bonds sold off.

M&A Transactions💭 

UniFirst (NYS: UNF), provides uniform and workwear programs, was acquired for $5.2B by Cintas (NAS: CTAS).

ExoAnalytic Solutions, operator of a space monitoring network, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Anduril.

Talkspace (NAS: TALK), a behavioral healthcare company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $869.696M by Universal Health Services (NYS: UHS). EV/EBITDA was 144.3x and EV/Revenue was 3.8x. Wells Fargo Advised on the sale.

RedClick, provider of insurance services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 337.0M by Zurich Insurance Group (SWX: ZURN).

Raksul, provides printing services in Japan, was acquired for JPY 113.0M by Goldman Sachs, Mr. Yasutoshi Matsumoto, and Mr. Yasutoshi Matsumoto, and Mr. Yohei Nagami.

Quinnox, provider of digital and technology services, was acquired for $290.0M by ASGN (NYS: ASGN). EV/Revenue was 2.9x.

Mistral, manufacturer of defense and public safety systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $175.0M by Ondas (NAS: ONDS).

Jiffy Lube International, operator of a quick-lube store chain, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.3B by Monomoy Capital Partners.

The Irish and Northern Irish P&C Business of generali real Estate has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 337.0M by Zurich Fund. Bank of America advised on the sale.

Emmerson Resources (ASX: ERM),a Perth-based explorer with emerging gold royalty business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 311.0M by Pan African Resources (LON: PAF).

Champions Group, operator of business conglomerate, was acquired for $2.5B by Blackstone. Baird Capital, Piper Sandler, and William Blair & Company advised on the sale.

Biocare Medical, developer of immunohistochemistry and molecular diagnostic reagents, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $950.0M by Agilent Technologies (NYS: A). EV/Revenue was 10.56x. Jefferies advised on the sale.

ARKA Group, developer of a space technology platform, was acquired for $2.6B by CACI International. The transaction was supported by $1.3B of debt financing. Evercore Group and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Wood, an engineering and consultancy business, was acquired for $291.94M by Sidara. Europa Partners, Moelis & Company, Morgan Stanley, and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale.

Scientia Vascular, manufacturer of endovascular medical devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $550.0M by Medtronic (NYS: MDT).

Prestige Insurance Holdings, provider of insurance brokerage and underwriting services, was acquired for GBP 219.0M by AUB Group (ASX: AUB).

Intersect Power, developer of utility-scale renewable energy, was acquired for $4.75B by Alphabet (NAS: GOGGL). J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

C-United, operator of a cafe chain, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 44.092B by Colowide MD.

CNL Healthcare Properties, operator of a real estate investment trust, was acquired for $1.831B by Sonida Senior Living (NYS: SNDA). EV/EBITDA was 21.4x and EV/Revenue was 4.66x. KeyBanc Capital Markets advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Solstice Oncology, company is in stealth mode, raised $1.21B of venture funding from Harbour BioMed.

Phoenix Tailings, operator of a metal refining company, raised $106.58M through a combination of Series B-1, Series B-2, and Series B-3 venture funding in a deal led by Envisioning Partners at a pre-money valuation of $288.42M.

Nscale, developer of AI infrastructure, raised $2.0B of Series C venture funding led by 8090 Industries and Aker at a pre-money valuation of $12.6B.

Fangqing Technology, distributor of industrial automation and visual intelligence solutions, raised CNY 1.0B of Pre-A+ venture funding from 37 Interactive Entertainment, Ziamen C&D Corporation, and Peakvest.

VAST Data, developer of a data orchestration platform, raised $1.0B of venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $29.0B.

Rhoda AI, developer of AI driven robotics platform, raised $450.0M of Series A venture funding led by Mayfield Fund and Premji.

Nexthop AI, developer of AI infrastructure designed for large-scale cloud operators, raised $500.0M of venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz at a pre-money valuation of $3.7B.

Legora, developer of an AI assistant, raised $550.0M of Series D venture funding led by Accel at a pre-money valuation of $5.0B.

Koch IP Holdings, operator of a multinational conglomerate corporation, raised $187.52M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Kai Cyber, developer of an AI intelligence cybersecurity platform, raised $125.0M of venture funding led by Evolution Equity Partners.

Eridu, developer of an advanced hardware and infrastructure technology, raised $200.0M of Series A venture funding led by Hudson River Trading, Capricorn Investment Group, Socratic Partners, and John Doerr.

Armadin, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised $189.9M of Series A venture funding led by Accel.

Advanced Machine Intelligence, developer of advanced AI computational systems, raised $1.03B of seed funding led by Cathay Innovation, Greycroft, HV Capital Investors, Bezos Expeditions, and Hiro Capital at a pre-money valuation of $3.5B.

Vima Therapeutics, developer of oral therapeutics, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by Atlas Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $18.0M.

Quince, operator of an e-commerce clothing company, raised $500.0M of Series E venture funding led by ICONIQ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $9.6B.

LightWheel AI, developer of data-centered large-scale models, raised CNY 1.0B of Series A++ and A+++ venture funding from AUX Group, New Hope Group, and Jiantou Huake Investment.

Lenzo, developer of advanced computing hardware, raised $500.0M of Seed funding from Sony innovation Fund, Mitsubishi UFJ Capital, and Monozukuri Ventures.

Alan, developer of an online digital insurance platform, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding led by Index Ventures at a pre-money valuation of EUR 4.9B.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Here’s some Soccer (Football) fun.

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 23% chance of Bayern Munich winning the Champions League.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

It looks like we have another crazy week ahead of us.

Oil is trading at $107/barrel as the Strait of Hormuz has effectively grinded to a stop for a week now and oil production in the middle east is nosediving. Trump has ordered diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia, and Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, the previous supreme leader’s son, as the new Ayatollah.

According to Axios, the U.S. was reportedly “dismayed” by Israeli strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. The U.S. is concerned that infrastructure attacks will drive Iranian support for the new regime and rapidly increase oil prices, driving the first major disagreement since the two allies started the war last Saturday.

Given the war and weak job numbers on Friday, all 3 major indices are now down on the year, with S&P futures -1.7% and Nasdaq futures -1.7% currently.

The price you pay at the pump will be on the move higher - with the avg. price of gasoline at $3.32/gallon on Friday, up 11% w/w.

The software recovery continued last week, with our Software bifurcation writeup really playing out quite nicely. We may see the Software rebound stall out though given the broader risk-off environment we’re entering.

Let’s get into it. Here’s a look at earnings this week.

• Monday: Vail Resorts, Hewlett Packard, Casey’s General Stores

• Tuesday: Oracle, Kohl’s, BioNTech, United Natural Foods, Franco-Nevada, AeroVironment

• Wednesday: Campbell’s Company, UiPath, Petco, Bumble, Descartes Systems

• Thursday: Adobe, Dollar General, Ulta, Lennar, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Wheaton Precious Metals

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

• Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb (3.1%)

• Tuesday: NFIB optimism index (99.6), Existing home sales (3.85)

• Wednesday: Consumer price index (0.3%), CPI y/y (2.4%), Core CPI (0.2%), Core CPI y/y (2.5%), Monthly U.S. federal budget

• Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), U.S. trade deficit (-$65.3B), Housing starts (1.33M), Building permits (1.40M)

• Friday: GDP first revision (1.5%), Personal income (0.5%), Personal spending (0.2%), PCE index delayed (0.3%), PCE y/y (2.9%), Core PCE index (0.4%), Core PCE index y/y (3.1%), Durable-goods orders (1.5%), Durable-goods minus transportation, Job openings (6.8M), Consumer sentiment prelim (55.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸 

• $COST ( ▼ 0.62% ) Top and bottom line beat while comps rose to 6.7% vs. 6.3%, driven by strong membership demand and steady demand for value focused bulk products. Membership fees reached $1.36B, highlighting the strength of Costco’s recurring revenue model. Management also said any tariff refunds would be passed back to members through lower prices.

• $BJ ( ▼ 1.56% ) Revenue missed at $5.44B vs. $5.54B while EPS beat slightly. Membership fee income was up 10.9% and digitally enabled comps rose 31% as more customers used online pickup and delivery services. Comparable club sales were soft at 1.6% and merchandise margins fell 50bps due to mix shift into lower margin electronics and grocery price investments. EPS guidance came in below expectations as the company ramps spending on new club openings and infrastructure.

• $KR ( ▼ 1.24% ) Revenue missed slightly at $34.7B while EPS beat at $1.28 vs. $1.20. Sales only grew 1.2% y/y as lower fuel prices weighed on revenue, SSSS excluding fuel rose 2.4% driven by steady grocery demand and e-commerce growth. 2026 guidance came roughly in line with expectations.

• $GAP ( ▼ 1.46% ) Revenue was in roughly in line at $4.24B while EPS missed slightly. Results were pressured by historic winter storms that forced around 800 temporary store closures. Performance was mixed, with strong growth at the Gap brand and Banana Republic offset by continued weakness at Athleta where comps fell 10% as the brand works through product and positioning issues. Gross margin declined due to tariffs, but FY guidance came in roughly in line.

• $VSCO ( ▼ 2.78% ) Revenue beat at $2.27B and EPS beat at $2.77 vs $2.52. Comparable sales jumped to 8% vs 5.6%, marking the company’s strongest streak of comp growth in four years. However operating margin declined to 10.1% from 12.7% amid higher marketing and operating costs.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Jefferies $JEF ( ▲ 1.84% ) fell after Western Alliance sued the firm for allegedly declining to make $126mm in payments due under a forbearance agreement tied to First Brands.

• Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 1.93% ) surged after posting strong Q4 results, with revenue reaching $8.19B, marking a sharp turnaround from the previous quarter when shares dropped 7%.

• Lamb Weston $LW ( ▲ 3.43% ) is facing activist pressure from Starboard, who wants the french-fry maker to cut costs.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Roark is exploring an IPO for Inspire Brands, the parent of Dunkin’, Arby’s, and Jimmy John’s, with early deliberations of raising $2B, though no final decisions have been made.

• MiniMed raised $560mm in an IPO that priced below its initial range of $25 to $28. Shares were sold at $20 each, giving the company a market value of $5.6B.

• Robinhood’s venture fund slumps on debut: Robinhood Ventures Fund I $RVI ( ▼ 1.19% ) fell in its NYSE debut after pricing at $25 and closing at $21.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Jobs Miss: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92k in February, well below expectations of a 50k gain and a sharp reversal from January’s 126k increase. Losses in healthcare, manufacturing, and information services helped drive the decline as the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% vs. expectations of 4.3%.

• Oracle layoffs: Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs, affecting divisions across the company, as part of an effort to cut costs amidst heavy data center spend. High capex is expected to push Oracle's cash flow negative in the coming years before turning positive again in 2030.

• BlackRock limits withdrawals from its $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund, capping repurchases at 5% vs. shareholder requests of 9.3%. The 5% gate has always been in the fund’s terms, but it hasn’t been triggered before.

• Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in 2025 according to a report from Fitch, up from 8.1% in 2024. Smaller issuers with under $25mm in earnings made up the majority of the defaults.

• Morningstar’s Moat revisions: Ratings were upgraded for CrowdStrike and Cloudflare based on the belief that cybersecurity spending will rise as AI deployments increase the attack surface area. Moat ratings on six other software companies, including Adobe and Salesforce, were downgraded as AI has disrupted horizontal software.

• Blue Owl backs Vista’s $3B acquisition of Nexthink, including leading a $750M debt package with a $650M term loan priced at S+550 and a $100M revolver.

• JP Morgan is shifting more of the $15.5B financing package for the Electronic Arts LBO into high-yield bonds, following more favorable dynamics. Mix is expected to include $9.5B of high-yield bonds and $6B of leveraged loans.

• European Direct lenders stats: Goldman found that since 2017, ~$38B of senior private loans to 146 companies have turned into situations where lenders take the keys, showing a rare glimpse into European private credit restructurings.

• Circle and Stripe are racing to build new payment systems where AI agents transact in stablecoins, positioning agentic payments as a use case to justify infrastructure buildout. If material, this would be a dramatic disruption to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.

• KKR is exploring the sale of CoolIT Systems in a deal that could value the data center cooling company at more than $3B.

• Balyasny has built agentic AI platforms, powered by OpenAI, to automate deep research tasks, analyze central bank speech, and monitor/update merger arbitrage deal probabilities.

M&A Transactions💭 

Medsystems, distributor of medical systems, was acquired for BRL 18.27B by Classys (KRX: 214150).

Mace Consult, provider of business consulting, was acquired for GBP 750.0M by The Goldman Sachs Group. The transaction values the company at GBP 1.0B.

Isem, manufacturer of luxury rigid boxes, was acquired for AED 704.0M by 2PointZero. As part of the transaction, Peninsula Capital and minority investors will own the remaining 39.2%.

Blue Bottle Coffee, operator of a coffee network, was acquired for $400.0M by Centurium Capital. EV/Revenue was 1.6x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Telegraph Media Group, operator of a media publishing company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 575.0M by Axel Springer,

Cogentrix Energy, developer of independent power generation assets, was acquired for $4.0B by Vistra (NYS: VST). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Amedeo Air Four Plus (LON: AA4), engaged in acquiring, leasing, and then selling aircrafts, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 190.0M by Lesha Bank. EV/Net Income was 8.38x and EV/Revenue was 1.1x.

Tracim Cimento, operator of a cement factory, was acquired for $190.0M by Titan (BRU: TITC).

TCR International, provider of aviation management services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.4B by Global Infrastructure Partners. The transaction values the company at EUR 1.61B. Deutsche Bank advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Vast Space, developer of a commercial space station, raised $500.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. $300.0M of Series A equity was led by Balerion Space Venture.

Science, developer of brain-computer interface technology, raised $230.0M of Series C venture funding led by Khosla Ventures and Lightspeed Venture Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.27B.

Robotera, developer of a humanoid robot, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding from Samsung Venture Investment, Sintel, and CICC Private Equity at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

PaXini Tech, developer of smart tactile sensors, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding led by HPR Capital, Kaitai Capital, and Quzhou State Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Information Security Management at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

Nominal, developer of a data infrastructure and analytics platform, raised $155.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal co-led by Founders Fund and Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $845.0M.

GigaAI, developer of a spatial intelligence and world model platform, raised 1.0B Yuan of Pre-B venture funding from Huaqiang Capital, Xingyuan Capital, and Optics Valley Industry Investment.

Cognito Therapeutics, developer of digital therapeutics, raised $105.0M of Series C venture funding led by Morningside Group, Starbloom Capital, and IAG Capital Partners.

Atavistik Bio, operator of a biopharmaceutical company, raised $160.0M of Series B venture funding led by The Column Group and Nextech Invest.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders expect the war to escalate further and are pricing in a 69% chance of US forces entering Iran this year.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

With AI advancing rapidly, NBC polling found that it does not poll well and is viewed very unfavorably by many. Expect this to be a massive political talking point for the midterms and 2028 election.

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Together With

Welcome back!

Despite the initial selloff following the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, stocks moved higher yesterday on reports Iran reached out to the CIA to end the war. The war remains extremely fluid though as strikes were ongoing last night. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is back to being a “safe haven” asset - rallying near $73,000 at the time of writing.

Notably too, Anthropic is reportedly resuming AI deal negotiations with the Pentagon, a stark reversal vs. all the drama this past week.

We’ve had a nice rebound in software this week too. Clearly, terminal value questions remain, but we were a bit oversold. We did a Part II writeup on Software you can access here that focuses on bifurcation in the space and which software companies are most impacted vs. least impacted by AI.

Let’s get into it.

Earnings Corner 💸 

• $AVGO ( ▲ 0.27% ) Top and bottom line beat with revenue coming in at $19.31B vs. $19.18B and EPS at $2.05, driven by surging AI semiconductor demand as hyperscalers ramp custom accelerators and networking chips for large-scale model training. AI revenue more than doubled to $8.4B, supported by strong demand tied to Google TPUs and other cloud AI infrastructure. Guidance topped expectations, and CEO Hock Tan expects AI chip revenue well above $100B next year.

• $CRWD ( ▼ 0.93% ) Top and bottom line beat as as subscription growth and platform expansion drove ARR higher, with total ARR reaching $5.25B and net new ARR of $331M beating expectations. Strong adoption of the Falcon Flex licensing model and increased demand for AI-driven security tools supported cross selling and higher module adoption, lifting revenue and margins. Guidance came in slightly above expectations as management pointed to strong pipeline and continued platform momentum.

• $OKTA ( ▼ 2.09% ) Top and bottom line beat as revenue rose 11% y/y driven by continued enterprise demand for identity security and growing need to secure AI agents and workloads. Subscription backlog remained strong with RPO up 15% y/y, signaling solid bookings momentum. Guidance disappointed with revenue and EPS below expectations amid macro uncertainty and slower enterprise IT spending.

• $TGT ( ▲ 1.4% ) Revenue slightly missed while EPS beat at $2.44 vs. $2.16. Sales and traffic remained weak with in store sales down 2.5% as discretionary demand and store traffic declined. Profitability benefited from cost controls and growth in higher margin businesses like advertising, memberships, and same day delivery. Management outlined a turnaround strategy focused on “busy families,” shifting away from being an “everything store” while full-year EPS guidance topped expectations.

• $NCLH ( ▲ 4.1% ) Revenue missed at $2.24B vs. $2.34B while EPS came in roughly in line. Results were dragged by execution missteps, including a poorly coordinated Caribbean capacity expansion that increased supply before marketing, pricing, and infrastructure were fully aligned, weighing on yields. Guidance disappointed with EPS ($2.38) and EBITDA ($2.95B) both below expectations, as operational issues and pricing pressure continues.

• $ROST ( ▲ 1.06% ) Beat on revenue (+12% y/y) and EPS of $2.00 vs. $1.88, driven by strong holiday traffic and a 9% comp increase, with higher customer transactions across key categories like apparel and footwear. Results benefitted from value focused consumers switching to off price retailers. Guidance topped expectations as mgmt pointed to continued momentum.

• $BBY ( ▲ 1.99% ) Revenue missed while EPS beat at $2.61 vs. $2.47. Sales fell slightly, down 1% y/y with comps down 0.8% as consumers delayed larger electronic purchases like appliances and home theaters. Profitability improved as cost cuts and growth in higher-margin businesses like advertising and the third-party marketplace helped offset demand. Guidance came in just below expectations, signaling continued weak electronics demand.

• $BBWI ( ▼ 0.27% ) Beat on revenue ($2.72B vs. $2.61B) and EPS ($2.05 vs. $1.77), though sales fell 2.3% y/y as Body Care remained weak. Results were supported by holiday promotions and stronger home fragrance and soap sales. The company launched a curated assortment on Amazon as part of a broader turnaround strategy, while guidance came in light with sales expected to decline 2.5%–4.5%.

On The Move 📈 📉

• Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 5.66% ) and MicroStrategy $MSTR ( ▲ 3.82% ) shares climbed as Bitcoin rebounded and Trump signaled support for the industry.

• AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 10.51% ) surged after announcing a direct-to-cell partnership with Orange in Europe.

• AppLovin $APP ( ▲ 3.85% ) stock rallied after delivering a strong Q4 earnings beat and earning multiple price target hikes.

• Moderna $MRNA ( ▲ 4.26% ) rose after finally settling a litigation related to the delivery technology behind its covid shot.

• Trade Desk $TTD ( ▼ 0.94% ) is rising after hours following a report that OpenAI may sell ads on the platform, plus their CEO acquired $148mm in shares.

IPO Roundup 📍 

• Whoop plans to grow headcount by up to 7% this year, adding 600+ roles to its ~800-person team as it positions for a potential IPO within the next two years.

• MiniMed is targeting a raise of $784mm in its IPO that’s pricing today, valuing the company at just under $8B as it separates from health giant Medtronic.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿 

• Jobs rebound: ADP showed US private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February vs. 50,000 estimated, the strongest gain since July. This was driven by education and health services, signaling gradual labor market stabilization, with wage growth holding steady at 4.5% for job stayers.

• Morgan Stanley job cuts: The bank is laying off 2,500 employees, roughly 3% of their workforce. The cuts include IBD and wealth management, both banking and back-office positions, and are tied to shifting business and location priorities.

• South Korean stocks plunge, but are now recovering: The Kospi fell 12%, its worst one-day drop on record, after a 7.2% slide the previous session. However, this looks short lived as at the time of writing, the Kospi is up 12%.

• Iran latest: The US has torpedoed 20 Iranian ships, with Hegseth saying “we have only just begun the fight” as Iran continues to launch missiles across the Middle East. The Senate voted to reject the war powers resolution, which would have halted any further attacks until congressional approval was given.

  • Additionally, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed, forcing some countries to shut in production and sending oil prices up. In response, Trump said that the US will provide naval escorts and insurance guarantees to ensure safe passage for oil tankers.

• Apollo warns of private credit shakeout: Apollo CEO Marc Rowan said rising defaults, especially in software, will trigger a prolonged correction in the $1.8T private credit market. Apollo shares have fallen ~30% YTD amid investor concerns.

• Blue Owl shorts hit record highs: Short interest climbed to a record high of 14.65% of free float as shares remain down nearly one-third YTD. Borrow demand is up 46% MoM, and financing costs have climbed above 200 bps, reflecting mounting private credit and AI-related software exposure concerns.

• Blackstone raises BCRED withdrawal cap: Blackstone allowed a record 7.9% of shares worth ~$3.8B to be redeemed from its $82B flagship private credit fund, exceeding the typical 5% quarterly limit.

  • Blackstone MDs chip in: 25 Senior managing directors invested $150mm in personal capital to help fund redemptions, covering part of the withdrawal request and signaling alignment with investors.

• Ares views the 15% private credit default rate as “absolutely wrong” and calls the commentary from UBS “actually irresponsible” while Marathon has pushed back, opting to stay away from software lending and focus on hard assets instead.

• Stonepeak eyes Cleco Power: Stonepeak and Bernhard Capital are in advanced talks to acquire Cleco Power from Macquarie in a deal valuing the Louisiana utility company at $5B+ enterprise value.

• Banks back Select Medical Buyout: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo committed ~$1B in debt to support the $3.9B MBO of healthcare company Select Medical.

• Champions is getting $1B in debt financing at S+450, with Blackstone levering the company up to 6.5x.

• Apple launches $599 MacBook Neo, marking Apple’s cheapest Mac ever and a direct push against Chromebooks and entry-level Windows.

• Judge orders Trump to begin refunding importers for the $130B it collected from the invalidated global tariffs as over 2,000 companies have filed lawsuits.

  • This comes as President Trump’s global 15% tariffs are set to go into effect this week.

• Tech companies agree to cover rising electricity costs, with seven industry leaders pledging to pay for the cost of power for their data centers.

M&A Transactions💭 

Valokuitunen, provider of fiber-to-home network connection, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 200.0M by Telia Finland and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners. The transaction values the company at EUR 333.33M.

SPX Flow, manufacturer of industrial processing equipment, was acquired for $4.775B by ITT (NYS: ITT). EV/Revenue was 3.67x. Citigroup and Jefferies advised on the sale.

Saxo Bank, operator of a fully licensed European bank, was acquired for EUR 1.12B by J. Safra Sarasin Holding. The transaction values the company at EUR 1.6B. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Saxdor Yachts, manufacturer of premium boats, was acquired for EUR 150.0M by Malibu Boats (NAS: MBUU). The company shareholders may earn up to EUR 72.0M in additional consideration upon achievement of certain operating and financial growth targets. D.A. Davidson Companies advised on the sale.

Proficy, developer of artificial intelligence-based software and a division of GE Vernova, was acquired for $600.0M by TPG. Evercore and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Peanuts Worldwide, publishers of comic strips intended to display brief humor, was acquired for CAD 630.0M by Sony Music Entertainment. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Middlefield Banc, a bank holding company, was acquired for $299.0M by Farmers National Bank (NAS: FMNB). EV/Net Income was 15.39x and EV/Revenue was 3.84x. Raymond James advised on the sale.

The Azora Capital / Palladium Hotel Group Joint Venture was acquired by Palladium Hotel Group for EUR 300.0M. The transaction values the company at EUR 400.0M.

Forge Global Holdings, a financial service platform, was acquired for $572.913M by The Charles Schwab (NYS: SCHW). EV/Revenue was 6.17x. Financial Technology Partners advised on the sale.

European Residential REIT (TSE: ERE.UN), an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CAD 235.87M by Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE: CAR.UN). EV/EBITDA was 2.09x and EV/Revenue was 4.48x. BMO Capital Markets and Haywood Securities advised on the sale.

Care.com, developer of an online platform designed to connect families with caregivers, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $320.0M by Pacific Avenue Capital Partners. J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Centurium Capital Partners, backing Luckin Coffee, has agreed to acquire Blue Bottle Coffee for $400.0M.

Barrenjoey Capital Partners Group, provider of financial consulting services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 903.85M by Magellan Financial Group. EV/Net Income was 16.2x and EV/Revenue was 3.35x.

AES (NYS: AES), a global power company, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $41.55B by EQT, Global Infrastructure Partners, Qatar Investment Authority, and California Public Employees’ Retirement System. EV/EBITDA was 15.86x and EV/Revenue was 3.4x. J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo advised on the sale.

Worldwide Express, provider of logistics services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $500.0M by Auctane. EV/Revenue was 0.1x. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS advised on the sale.

Valiant Artificial Lift Solutions, operator of oilfield services, was acquired for $200.0M by Flowco Holdings (NYS: FLOC). PPHB Energy Investment Banking advised on the sale.

RAPT Therapeutics, a clinical-stage immunology-based biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $2.2B by GSK (LON: GSK). J.P. Morgan advised on the sale.

Ookla, provider of broadband testing services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.2B by Accenture (NYS: ACN). Citigroup and Evercore Group advised on the sale.

MW Components, manufacturer of precision components, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 950.0M by Rosebank Industries. EV/EBITDA was 13.58x and EV/Revenue was 2.58x. Robert W. Baird & Co. and Investec advised on the sale.

DRC Heat Transfer, manufacturer of automotive machine parts, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 164.0M by Smiths Group (LON: SMIN). EV/Revenue was 2.32x.

CPM Holdings, manufacturer of engineered process equipment, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $2.1B by Rosebank Industries. Evercore Group, Robert W. Baird & Co., and Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Covelya Group, manufacturer of advanced underwater technology, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Kraken Robotics (TSX: PNG) for $615.0M. EV/Revenue was 7.78x. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Aludec, manufacturer of exterior and interior decorative parts, was acquired for EUR 200.0M by CIE Automotive (MAD: CIE). 

CJ Feed&Care, producer of animal feed, was acquired by De Heus Voeders for KRW 1.0T.

Private Placement Transactions💭 

Noetix, manufacturer of humanoid robotics solutions, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding led by Chendao Capital.

KargoBot, developer and provider of self-driving truck service, raised $100.0M of Series B venture funding led by Horizon Robotics (HKG: 09660) and Gaorang Ventures.

Gropyus, operator of a vertically integrated construction company, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

GalBot, developer and manufacturer of humanoid robotics, raised CNY 2.5B of Series D venture funding from SAIC Motor, CITIC Construction, and Sinopec.

Rent2Cash, developer of rental management platform, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding from undisclosed investors.

Grow Therapy, developer of mental healthcare platform, raised $150.0M of venture funding led by TCV and Goldman Sachs Asset Management at a pre-money valuation of $2.85B.

Flink, operator of grocery platform, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding led by Prosus.

Ayar Labs, developer of optical interconnect technology, raised $500.0M of Series E venture funding led by Neuberger Berman at a pre-money valuation of $3.25B.

PLD Space, developer of an international space services platform, raised EUR 180.0M of Series E venture funding led by Mitsubishi Electric.

Oxa Autonomy, developer of AI based autonomous vehicle journey platform, raised $103.0M of Series D venture funding from bp ventures, nVentures, and IP Group.

Odds of the Day 🍒 

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 39% chance of the Iranian regime falling

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