Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: A Team-By-Team Trade Deadline Primer

By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network


Anaheim Ducks

It’s still a year too early for the Ducks, but with the Pacific Division suddenly wide open, they should be weaponizing their wealth of cap space to take a couple swings at improving the roster for a potential run to the conference finals. They have the best goalie in the division and over $50 million in deadline cap space. Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlson, Pavel Mintyukov, and Owen Zellweger are all due for big raises this summer – Ryan Poehling, too, if they opt to keep him – but they still have a ton of wiggle room. An experienced blue liner and bottom-six winger should be the primary targets, but with Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas on expiring deals I’d love to see them package one of Pavel Mintyukov or Olen Zellweger as part of a bigger deal to acquire a legit partner for Jackson LaCombe… someone like MacKenzie Weegar or Brett Pesce.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins have been linked to a number of guys and seem committed to bolstering their roster ahead of the deadline, but I think their best course of action is to do nothing. At most I’d make a small move to add a middle-six winger where I’m only giving up a middling pick. If they can add a guy with term who fits into their plans beyond this season then it’s a different conversation, but those are the types of deals they can wait to make until summer. They aren’t close to good enough to beat a Tampa or Carolina in the first round and there’s no one out there they can realistically add to this team in the next couple days to change that. They are well-positioned to get back to being competitive in the next few years and they don’t have any reason to sacrifice that just to win an extra game, at best, in the first round.

Buffalo Sabres

The franchise desperately needed this run and for the first time in ages it’s an exciting time to be a Sabres fan. Because of that, I can’t really fault them for keeping Alex Tuch as their own rental at the risk of losing him for nothing this summer, even if that is typically very bad practice. I’d still try and explore a hockey trade where you get assets that still help you this season for Tuch, but those are generally easier to make in the summer – only they won’t have much leverage then as he’ll be on the cusp of free agency. If I were Jarmo Kekalainen my priority would be a right defenseman and an experienced bottom-six forward, in that order. Could they pry Zach Whitecloud out of Calgary? I don’t know how realistic trading within the division is, but a Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo package from Toronto is pretty much exactly what they need.

On the Robert Thomas rumors, that would be a terrifying proposition for the rest of the Eastern Conference. They have the picks and young NHL talent to pull it off comfortably, and it would be a true home run for Kekalainen. Running three of Thomas, Tage Thompson, Josh Norris, and Ryan McLeod down the middle is some nasty work. They would be a legitimate threat in the East for years to come.

Carolina Hurricanes

We know Eric Tulsky isn’t afraid to take swings, so how about Robert Thomas here? The Canes need another legitimate center to get over the hump, and have both the assets and cap space to pull a deal off with St. Louis. I like Logan Stankoven but he’s won 44% of his draws and is best suited to play on the wing. Jordan Staal is their only reliable faceoff guy and you ideally don’t want him out there taking offensive zone draws late in games when you need a goal. I also wonder about Nazem Kadri and Ryan O’Reilly here. The bottom line is they can put an attractive package together for anyone out there on the market, and they absolutely need an upgrade at 2C if they are going to have a chance to finally get over the hump.

Calgary Flames

Staring down the barrel at a full rebuild, the Flames should be open to anything. They need to be taking calls on everyone on that roster over 25. Moving Kadri to the highest bidder is a must, and I would definitely be shopping Zach Whitecloud, who should fetch a really nice return as a coveted big, right-shot defenseman who has a Cup and is signed for another two years at just $2.75 million. They already have four first-round picks in the next two years, and by moving Kadri, Whitecloud, and Blake Coleman, it’s conceivable they add a couple more.

Chicago Blackhawks

This is something of a weird spot for the Blackhawks, who have been rebuilding for a while and are slowly starting to see the returns from their high picks, but have done such a terrible job building the roster around them. As much as you’d think a team in their position should be continuing to try and add picks and young players for ageing veterans, they also need to give the likes of Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and others some good players to play with. Chicago’s veterans are unlikely to fetch them much, either. The one guy I’d try and move is Tyler Bertuzzi, who just turned 31 and has two more years left at $5.5 million. He’s already four goals away (26) from setting a new career high (30) and is the type of player contending teams will covet in the playoffs. The reality is he’s not actually that good, but he’s made the most of his opportunity playing high up the lineup in Chicago and Kyle Davidson should be trying to cash in on that. The Blackhawks are also a team that would make sense for me as a landing spot for pending UFA Patrik Laine. He’ll come free – you might even be able to get a late pick attached to take on the rest of his contract – and you can give him a two-month audition in the lineup to prove himself and get an up-close look as to whether you want to make him an offer to stay beyond this season. It’s a completely risk-free move.

Colorado Avalanche

Not much needs to be said about the Avs, who laid the groundwork for a bigger trade already by moving Samuel Girard. They’re pretty obviously targeting an upgrade at forward, and everyone will have Nazem Kadri penciled in here, but I would love to see them bring back Ryan O’Reilly. He’ll cost less, is easier to fit in under the cap next season, and would be the optimal fit on that third line. He’s also probably the better player at this point in their careers?

Columbus Blue Jackets

All indications are the franchise is going to do what they can to get into the playoffs. If that’s the case, they need to make a splash or they will fall short again. I wouldn’t. There’s a lot of good, young talent on this roster and I don’t think trading futures for a rental just to improve their chances of making the playoffs to a number still sub-60% is remotely worth it. I’d go the other way, if I were in Don Waddell’s shoes. It’s a buyer’s market so it’s easier said than done, but trading some impending UFAs to add assets they can flip as part of a bigger move this summer to get them over the hump feels like the best path forward. I know they’re growing impatient, but dealing a couple of Mason Marchment, Charlie Coyle, Boone Jenner, and Danton Heinen would be the most logical approach to the deadline.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have really hit their stride as we approach the deadline and I’m fascinated to see what they do over these next couple days with Tyler Seguin on season ending LTIR. Another right shot on the blue line would make sense here, though a lefty could also work if they want to keep Miro Heiskanen playing on his off side to keep him, Esa Lindell, and Thomas Harley (all left shots) in the top four. If so, I wonder about Oliver Ekman-Larsson here. They’re loaded down the middle but could definitely use another middle-six winger. Blake Coleman or Conor Garland would be home runs.

Detroit Wings

The Wings will be linked to every big name available over the next few days, and for good reason. Hockeytown has been starved of playoff hockey for nearly a decade and with a war chest of picks and prospects, they have a ton of flexibility to improve the roster any way they can. There is a widespread belief out there that this is some young, up-and-coming team. Sure, they have young pieces and a lot in the pipeline still to come through, but a big chunk of this roster is also either in their prime or on the back nine. They differ in that way from Atlantic Division rivals like the Canadiens and Sabres. The team isn’t good enough to make any real noise in the playoffs, so they should be going big-game hunting to really pull themselves into the mix, seeing as they can move some high picks and young pieces without impacting the future too much.  

Edmonton Oilers

For the Oilers, it’s more a case of what can they do vs. what should they do. Cap space is nonexistent so for every dollar in they need to move dollars out. They’re not going to make another move in net, despite what people seem to think. And they’re set on the back end after adding Connor Murphy. Bringing in some depth up front is all I expect here and a guy who fits the bill is Bobby McMann. He’s from the area and he comes dirt cheap, especially if the Leafs retain salary. They can fit him under the cap without much of a sweat and he can play up and down the lineup. Will a 2nd be enough to get it done? I would have thought so 24 hours ago, but after seeing what the Wild paid for Michael McCarron, I’m not so sure anymore.

Florida Panthers

Everything the Panthers do over these next couple days should be done with an eye on next season. They’ll be fully healthy again, and a year without a deep playoff run should help them be nice and rested going into next season. Evan Rodrigues is an obvious sell candidate to clear out some cap space, and I’d certainly explore trying to move impending UFAs Sergei Bobrovsky and AJ Greer. They can always move them with the intent of bringing them back in the summer, like the Canadiens did many years ago with Tomas Plekanec. Outside of those guys, there’s not much the Panthers can do over the next few days. Any bigger moves would likely come closer to the draft.

Los Angeles Kings

Firing Jim Hiller was the best deadline move the Kings could have made for their future. Everyone seems content on eulogizing them after a rough stretch, but I’m not quite there yet. The bigger issue is they have too many bloated contracts on the back end. In an ideal world they shore up the blue line by adding a respectable second-pairing guy, but it’s hard to see them taking that route after Ken Holland went and overpaid to bring in guys like Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin, and Joel Edmundson. They have the cap space, so I still think the best path forward is adding a guy like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but that would require Holland to admit his mistake and make one of his failed veteran signings watch games from the press box. We’ll instead see them focus their attention on replacing Kevin Fiala. Patrik Laine is far from a perfect answer, but he would be a big boost for the league’s 26th-ranked power play that’s converting at just a 16.8% clip this season. He’s also got a point to prove over the final two months as he plays for a contract next season. Regardless, the Kings need to do something because as bad as it’s been for them this is their last hoorah with Anze Kopitar, and the Pacific Division is still bad enough where anything can happen provided they find their way into the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild

Center is the obvious need here and Vincent Trochek is a natural fit for this roster, but I do wonder about local guy Brock Boeser, too. Those two teams getting together for another sizeable in-season deal seems unlikely, though, and I’m not sure the Wild want to take on that contract as they try to maintain their flexibility to make an all-out push to get Quinn Hughes re-signed. This would be an intriguing destination for Shane Wright, too. He’s not the 2C they need, but he would be able to play up and down this lineup and give them enviable depth at the position along with Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman, and Danila Yurov. They have a really good team, but need more up front to get them over the hump in a brutal Central Division. Overpaying for Michael McCarron can’t be their only deadline week add.

Montreal Canadiens

It figures to be a quiet deadline for the Canadiens outside of finding a new home for Patrik Laine, but it would be a mistake not to make a true push for Robert Thomas. It’s not often centers of that caliber, at that age, come available. He fits their cap structure and contention window perfectly. We don’t know prospect Michael Hage’s ceiling, but everyone in that organization would be thrilled if he became… Robert Thomas. Trading a guy you hope can become that, as part of a package for a guy who already is that, is a no brainer. If the ask is astronomical, it’s fine to walk, but Kent Hughes should be putting his very best foot forward here. I’d also explore an upgrade on the right side of defense if you can make a bigger splash for someone like Zach Whitecloud who is actually good and signed beyond this season, but wouldn’t waste my time with a depth guy like Luke Schenn. Arber Xhekaj has been fine and has fully earned an extended run in the lineup. His physicality will also come in handy come playoff time.

In terms of the goaltending, I wouldn’t do anything unless it came at a very low cost. Neither of Jakub Dobes or Sam Montembault have been convincing enough to snatch the job but are we sure Jordan Binnington and Sergei Bobrovsky are upgrades at this point? They’re last and second-last in Goals Saved Above Average this season, and both bottom five in Goals Saved Above Expected. They each have distinguished track records and a proven ability to elevate their games when it matters, but I’m not ponying up here given the seasons they’ve had. Bob is an impending UFA so I’d give a 2026 3rd or a 2027 2nd to bring him in, though I wonder if Florida would consider a straight swap for Montembault? They need someone to form a tandem with Daniil Tarasov next year. Binnington is trickier. He’s signed for $6 million next season, which would be an anchor of a contract if he doesn’t rediscover his form, so unless he comes borderline free (he won’t), I’m probably passing.

Nashville Predators

The next few days are extremely simple for the Predators: do anything you can to move on from the Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault contracts. That’s the top, and I’d argue only priority for them. Moving Ryan O’Reilly for the right return makes sense, but he has another year left at a reasonable cap hit so they can always re-visit that in the summer, or next deadline. They’re off to a good start with the Michael McCarron and Cole Smith deals.

New Jersey Devils

I wouldn’t trust Tom Fitzgerald to do much of anything here. There needs to be a much bigger conversation about what’s next in New Jersey. For the next couple days, take calls on some of your veteran depth guys (Nick Bjugstad, Evgenii Dadonov, Luke Glendening, Brenden Dillon) and the rest can be sorted in the summer under a new regime.

New York Islanders

In last week’s newsletter I had Connor Garland going to the Islanders in one of my mock trades, which appears to have legs all of a sudden. It makes so much sense for both team and player, so it would be cool to actually see that come to fruition. If they can’t pull it off, they need to quickly re-focus their efforts because they are in dire need of a top-six winger.

New York Rangers

Chris Drury already outlined their deadline plans in a letter to fans earlier this year. Artemi Panarin was shipped out, and I’m not sure who else they can realistically move this week outside of Vincent Trocheck. JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad aren’t conversations that will be seriously had over these next couple days. This is a mess made by Drury that should be cleaned up by someone else.

Ottawa Senators

No one in Ottawa will be ready to waive the white flag yet, and nor should they. But I also don’t believe they should be making moves for rentals. If they can pull something bigger off it should be for someone with term, especially with it being so hard to convince guys to sign in Ottawa. Those deals are unlikely to occur now, though. A depth winger to play on the third line, who comes at a low cost, would make the most sense for the Senators at the deadline, so they can stop playing Nick Cousins on the third line. Jaden Schwartz wouldn’t cost much and would give them a legitimate option to play with Shane Pinto on the third line.

Philadelphia Flyers

It’s a no-brainer to try and move Rasmus Ristolainen, who has another year left at $5.1 million, simply because he’s not very good. He’s the type of guy who will be coveted come playoff time for his size, and his game is certainly more conducive to playoff hockey one would figure, even though he’s still yet to play a single playoff game is his 13-year NHL career. Nicolas Deslauriers could fetch them a late pick, but it’s hard to see the Flyers doing much outside of that. It’s been reported that Owen Tippett is available, but I can’t see that coming to fruition before Friday. The Flyers need to take a step back and do some serious planning for this summer because there’s not a lot about this roster that makes sense and it’s hard to see a pathway to contention if they don’t start getting creative.

Pittsburgh Penguins

This is a weird spot for Kyle Dubas who, it must be said, has done a good job up to this point. They’re in a playoff spot and keep winning without Sidney Crosby, despite not playing particularly well. How long can this hold up for? Getting Crosby back into the playoffs would undoubtedly be awesome to see, but not capitalizing on moving some of their impending UFAs seems foolish for a team that has a second-round ceiling. It’s a delicate balance between not wanting to concede a playoff spot but also wanting to stay the course and build for the future. Given the fact that they still have a bunch of core guys in the twilight of their careers, it makes the most sense to me to listen to what’s out there but stand pat unless something really blows me away.

San Jose Sharks

Much like the Penguins, I think the best path forward for the Sharks these next few days is to do nothing. If someone knocks your socks off with an offer for Kiefer Sherwood, who they traded for a couple months back but don’t seem close to an extension with, then you do it. The same goes for John Klingberg and Mario Ferraro. Otherwise, you sit back and see if your young guys can play you into a playoff spot.

Seattle Kraken

This team is nowhere close to good enough and it would be a mistake not to do whatever they can to get something for impending UFAs Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak. I just don’t see the benefit of losing these guys for nothing so you can try and sneak into the playoffs to get railroaded in the first round. I’m not trading Shane Wright unless someone really ponies up, either. It’s generally not a great idea to trade a 22-year-old top pick at close to his lowest value.

St. Louis Blues

If I’m Doug Armstrong I simply don’t trade Robert Thomas. Why would you? I’ve never really been able to make sense of that one. Jordan Kyrou makes sense to shop – he’s good, but a luxury for a team loaded with wingers that’s trying to rebuild on the fly. The priority for me, though, would be Brayden Schenn. He’s been a loyal servant to this franchise for close to a decade, and won a Cup here, but his best hockey is behind him and that’s a contract – two years left at $6.5 million – you want to shed if you can. And then there’s Jordan Binnington. He’s had a miserable season but showed at the Olympics he can still be a gamer when it matters. That’s always been his thing. He seems pretty done in St. Louis and I wonder if a change of scenery will help him rediscover his game. Is he just burnt out there after so many years? Joel Hofer is the future there so the time is as good as any to move on, and there should be options for them to move his contract provided they’re ok with a muted return.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Any move the Lightning make will be a luxury. This is unquestionably the best team in the East and arguably the best team in the league. Simply getting and staying healthy would be enough for them – we haven’t seen their best 19 together at any point this season. I’m not even sure what their best 19 is though, as they have eight defensemen who should be playing regular NHL minutes. They have to be mindful of possibly losing Darren Raddysh this summer but can still afford to move a blue liner for an upgrade up front. Blake Coleman would be the home run, but there are a number of available wingers who would slot in as an upgrade on that third line.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I’m not sure there’s a clear pathway to the Leafs finding themselves back in contention next season. The roster needs a fair bit of work and they don’t have a ton of flexibility, especially on the back end where they’re paying a lot of declining veterans for several more years. They have a lot of dead weight and should spend the next couple days offloading as much of it as possible. There’s a dozen guys who should be candidates to be dealt. Realistically they’ll only move out a couple of bodies, but they need to be one of the most active teams this week, not only to make space on the roster, but to replenish a barren cupboard. Any picks or players they add can be flipped as part of bigger deals this summer if the goal is a quick retool. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Bobby McMann are the musts for me. OEL, who turns 35 this summer and is having his best season in years, is an obvious sell-high candidate. Who knows what you get from him next year. McMann is reportedly looking for around $5 million per year on a five-year deal. That’s a hard pass. Get something for him while you can.

Utah Mammoth

There’s something of an Alex Tuch situation happening in Utah, where Nick Schmaltz is a UFA at season’s end. He’s already tied his career high in goals and is due a massive raise this summer. Cap space isn’t an issue for the Mammoth. The question is whether Schmaltz wants to cash in on the open market. I think they’re confident they can re-sign him, but regardless they aren’t moving him. It really does feel as though they want to go big-game hunting again. I’m sure they’d like a redo on the JJ Peterka deal, but Robert Thomas would be fascinating here. Running a top-six of Keller-Thomas-Schmaltz and Peterka-Cooley-Guenther is legit. If they don’t take a big swing, they need to improve their depth up front. You can’t have Kailer Yamamoto (5’9), Michael Carcone (5’9), and Alex Kerfoot (5’11 and 180 soaking wet) all taking regular shifts in your bottom six come playoff time. I wonder about Evander Kane or AJ Greer.

Vancouver Canucks

This isn’t as straightforward a fire sale as it is for some other rebuilding teams. The Canucks’ decline has been steep and unexpected. Anyone they trade, they’ll be doing so at their lowest value. They’re already comfortably in position to land the best odds at the first-overall pick, and all their best trade assets are signed beyond this season. Evander Kane is the only impending UFA of note. They should definitely be taking calls on everyone, but I wouldn’t rush anyone out the door for 10 cents on the dollar. They can have bigger conversations about Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, and others this summer, or beyond, without risking any diminished returns – their values can’t get any lower than they are right now.

Vegas Golden Knights

If they can make the money work – and they always seem to find a way – Vegas are an interesting landing spot for Binnington. Adin Hill has turned into a pumpkin and you can’t rely on Akira Schmid every night. Binnington is more than familiar with several of these guys (Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore) from his time with Canada and going to a competitive team may be exactly what he needs to rediscover his form. The Knights always seem to have a surprise up their sleeve so I wouldn’t rule anything out here, but it feels like they made their big play already in Rasmus Andersson. They just need to get healthy now.

Washington Capitals

Missing the playoffs can’t be an option for the Capitals. They’re too good a team and the Metro is wide open once again. It would be a shame for Alex Ovechkin to not get another go at it in what could be his last season, too. I really like this roster and the middle six is very good. What they need is a replacement for Anthony Beauvillier on the top line. Blake Coleman or Jonathan Marchessault would look good there, and I also wonder about Kiefer Sherwood. Whoever it is, finding an upgrade on Beauvillier is a must.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are in a near identical position to the Leafs, only I think they have a clearer pathway to getting back to contention next season. They’re deeper and a bit younger up front, certainly younger on the back end, have a true number one in Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck in net, and still have their first-round pick. The margin for error is thin, but with the right moves they can be back to being a threat in the West as early as next season. Get what you can for impending UFAs Gustav Nyquist, Luke Schenn, and Logan Stanley. I’m also taking calls on Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov. Whatever picks you get can be used this summer, along with a surprisingly deep prospect pool, to re-tool around your core. 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) Everyone’s doing it, and I have had some notable disagreements with what I’ve seen out there. So here are my projected Team Canada and Team USA 2030 Olympic rosters:

TEAM CANADA 2030

Macklin Celebrini (23) – Connor McDavid (33) – Wyatt Johnston (26)
Connor Bedard (24) – Nathan MacKinnon (34) – Beckett Sennecke (24)
Gavin McKenna (22) – Adam Fantilli (25) – Seth Jarvis (28)
Brandon Hagel (31) – Nick Suzuki (30) – Mitch Marner (32)
Mason McTavish (27), Dylan Guenther (26)

First one out: Quinton Byfield (27)

Keep an eye on: Brady Martin (22)

My biggest takeaway is how impossible an exercise this was. There will be a lot of consensus out there among the 2030 mock teams, and I can pretty much guarantee we’ll look back on them in four years and see how wrong they all are. There are just so many variables among such a massive pool of players. How will veterans like Hagel, Marner, and Brayden Point look when their footspeed has slowed? It’s conceivable that none of them are there. There’s also a large group of guys you won’t see on anyone’s teams right now, but who certainly have the talent to be there in 2030 if they take the necessary steps; guys like Alexis Lafreniere, Ben Kindel, Dylan Holloway, Jack Quinn, Jake Neighbours, Kent Johnson, Logan Stankoven, Michael Misa, Porter Martone, Robert Thomas, Will Cuylle, Zachary Benson, and more. It’s a deep pool – the deepest in the world – and a lot can happen in four years.

Matthew Schaefer (22) – Cale Makar (31)
Thomas Harley (28) – Brandt Clarke (27)
Owen Power (27) – Evan Bouchard (29)
Sam Dickinson (23), Noah Dobson (30)

First one out: Denton Mateychuk (25)

Keep an eye on: Landon DuPont (20)

In looking through a lot of these projected 2030 rosters, it blew me away how universally underrated Clarke is. Barring injury, he’s a lock for me here and I think it’s only a matter of time before everyone catches on to how good he really is. I’m also not nearly as sold on Jakob Chychrun, who is on everyone’s team. He’s obviously good, but will be on the wrong side of 30 by then and has dealt with a wealth of injuries throughout his career. They have enough options on the left that I don’t expect him to be better at that age than Power and Dickinson. A lot of people seem to have written off Power due to his defensive struggles, but it takes time for these younger guys to fully develop that part of their game. Just look at where his teammate Rasmus Dahlin was at this age – people were calling him a bust. I have little doubt Power will get there sooner that later, and I love Dickinson. He’s got all the tools and, similar to Clarke, by 2030 I expect him to have properly announced himself to the hockey world. I’m taking him and his 6’3 frame over ageing veterans like Josh Morrissey, who missed the 4 Nations final because he was sick and then missed the bulk of the Olympics with an injury. Frankly, I don’t care to see Morrissey represent Canada again outside of the Worlds every May. Lastly, you’ll see projected 2026 top-3 pick Keaton Verhoeff on a lot of 2030 mock teams, but I’m a little bit more interested in Dupont for this exercise. He’s a year younger but has that tantalizing ceiling of a Matthew Schaefer that we’d need to see from either guy to force their way onto this team at such a young age.

Logan Thompson (31)
Jet Greaves (28)
Sebastian Cossa (27)

First one out: Mackenzie Blackwood (33)

Keep an eye on: Joel Hofer (29)

Goaltending isn’t going to magically become a strength for Canada in 2030, but I do have high hopes for both Greaves and Cossa. The latter a consensus top goaltending prospect and is putting up insane numbers in the AHL. He has a lot to prove between now and then, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say we could even see him starting games for Canada in 2030 if he remains on this trajectory.

2.) TEAM USA 2030

Matthew Boldy (28) – Auston Matthews (32) – Jason Robertson (30)
Brady Tkachuk (30) – Jack Hughes (28) – Cole Caufield (28)
Matthew Tkachuk (32) – Jack Eichel (33) – Cutter Gauthier (26)
Matthew Knies (27) – Tage Thompson (32) – Ryan Leonard (25)
Will Smith (24), Frank Nazar (25)

First one out: Clayton Keller (31)

Keep an eye on: Josh Doan (28)

The talent pool isn’t as deep here there are less names that can break into this fold, but there’s still a fairly extensive list. I’m fascinated to see how things play out down the middle. Eichel and Matthews have both been plagued by back issues so there are legitimate questions as to how they age, which would open the door for guys like Smith and Nazar to move up the lineup, making room on the team for guys like Logan Cooley, Matty Beniers, and James Hagens.  

Jake Sanderson (27) – Brock Faber (27)
Quinn Hughes (30) – Charlie McAvoy (32)
Zach Werenski (32) – Adam Fox (31)
Lane Hutson (25), Jackson Lacombe (29)

First one out: Zeev Buium (24)

Keep an eye on: Chase Ried (22)

It’s tougher to fit the pieces together on the back end, where you want to avoid putting Hughes, Fox, or Hutson on a pair together. Conservatively, Hutson should comfortably be one of their best four defensemen by 2030, but the issue is their best players are all left-handed. For this exercise, I included him as an extra as I believe 2026 veterans would get the starting nod. Hutson could also be utilized on his off side, where he plays quite often for Montreal, in order to get him in the lineup. Buium has a great career ahead of him, but like Hutson in 2026, he’s left out here because there are too many stylistically similar guys ahead of him in the pecking order.

Jake Oettinger (31)
Spencer Knight (28)
Jeremy Swayman (31)

First one out: Dustin Wolf (28)

Keep an eye on: Jacob Fowler (24)

It may seem insane not to include Connor Hellebuyck here. His heroics in the 2026 Gold Medal Game are fresh in everyone’s mind, but he’ll be 36 by the time the next Olympics come around. He’s already played over 600 games and will be above 800 by 2030. When you look at where other greats (see: Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick) were at 36, it’s clear the Americans will have a wealth of better options, and I don’t see the point of including him as a favor seeing as he’s now already won a gold medal.

3.) With the trade deadline just 10 days away, over the next two weeks I’m going to drop some mock trades in here that I believe would make a lot of sense for the teams involved.

To TB: Blake Coleman (50% retention)
To CGY: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Maxwell Crozier, 2026 2nd, 2027 2nd

Coleman won back-to-back Cups with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021, is obviously loved by Jon Cooper, and fits the bill as the sort of player GM Julien BriseBois likes to acquire this time of year. With another year left on his deal, he’s not a pure rental. Tampa sends Bjorkstrand back to make the money work and pays a bigger price to get that 50% retention. Crozier looks like a good depth defenseman but is stuck behind a logjam on the Lightning blue line. He’s also from Calgary.

To MIN: Owen Tippett
To PHI: Jesper Wallstedt

This would finally solve the goaltending issues plaguing Philly for years, while giving the Wild a nice injection size and scoring up front. I’m sure Minnesota would prefer a center, but the emergence of Danila Yurov gives them a bit more flexibility. They could regret moving Wallstedt down the road, but he’s a luxury they don’t need right now given the Filip Gustavsson extension.

To CAR: Alex Tuch, Colton Ellis
To BUF: Jackson Blake, 2026 6th, 2027 3rd

This is probably the most unrealistic of the bunch as I’m not sure the Hurricanes care to move Blake, but Eric Tulsky isn’t afraid to take swings. They want to be a tougher team to face in the playoffs and Tuch does that. They also have the cap space to try and convince him to re-sign this summer. Trading Tuch in the midst of their first playoff push in ages isn’t ideal for the Sabres, but they’re still a very young team that should have eyes on the coming years here. Losing Tuch for nothing this summer is simply bad business, while adding Blake softens the blow and gives them a player with term to fit into their long-term plans.

To BOS: Nazem Kadri
To CGY: 2026 1st (BOS), Mason Lohrei, Fabian Lysell

I’m not sure if Kadri has the Bruins on his 13-team no-trade list, but it would be a lot of fun to see him head to the team he got suspended against twice in the playoffs while with Toronto. He really does feel like a “Bruins player” though, doesn’t he? With no retention, I think this package gets the job done for Calgary. Lohrei, who is under team control as an RFA at the end of his current contract in 2027, has been rumored to be on the block before, and makes a lot of sense here for a Flames team in need of lefties on the back end (Weegar, Whitecloud, Parekh, Pachal are all righties).

To OTT: Jordan Kyrou
To STL: Tyler Kleven, Jorian Donovan, 2027 1st, 2026 3rd

Ottawa has the space to pull this off, and definitely need more of a long-term answer on the wing – Claude Giroux and David Perron are both in their late 30s and pending UFAs. Kyrou is a very responsible player who would fit perfectly in Travis Green’s system. He’d look great on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens, allowing Ridly Greig to slot down to the third line and provide more support for Shane Pinto.

To DET: Robert Thomas
To STL: Nate Danielson, Trey Augustine, 2026 1st, 2026 3rd

There might not be a team more desperate to make a splash at this deadline than the Wings, as they look to end a nine-year playoff drought. They also are one of the extremely equipped to do so, with a war chest of picks and prospects. St. Louis can pretty much name their package here. Augustine could be the heir to Jordan Binnington, forming a formidable tandem with Joel Hofer in the coming years. Whether they’d want to trade the Michigan-born goalie remains to be seen, but they don’t have room for both him and Sebastian Cossa. Danielson, the ninth-overall pick in 2023, projects to be a similarly strong two-way center to Thomas, though maybe without the same offensive upside.

To NYI: Conor Garland
To VAN: Daniil Prokhorov, 2026 1st (NYI), 2027 2nd

I’m a big Garland guy, and I think he would be a perfect fit for this Isles team. He’s extremely responsible defensively and is a pretty consistent 20-goal scorer, which would immediately make him the team’s best winger. It also would allow Mathew Barzal to slide back to center, as they likely won’t want to go into the playoffs with a very green Calum Ritchie as the 2C. It makes sense for the Isles take a swing at the deadline to cement themselves as a top-three team in the Metro given Sidney Crosby’s injury. They have a wealth of picks and prospects to part with, so why not have a go?

To EDM: Bobby McMann
To TOR: 2026 2nd, 2027 2nd

This one pretty much writes itself. The Oilers are against the cap and have limited assets to try and improve at the deadline, so they should jump at the opportunity to grab McMann – a pending UFA on a cheap deal. McMann grew up just outside of Edmonton and would surely love the chance to return home to chase a Cup alongside the best player in the world.

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) Last year’s 4 Nations was a huge success, but I remember the discourse after it being about the impact it had on teams and players coming out of the break. I took a deeper look to get a better idea of that impact. Matthew Tkachuk and Shea Theodore suffered significant injuries that kept them out a while, while a few others missed a game or two with minor bruises, or for rest. I looked at the teams with at least four skaters (not including goalies) at the tournament to see how they fared before and after the pause:

Cleary there was no dip for any of these teams. I even shortened the sample size, just looking at numbers from the month before the break and the two weeks after it. By doing so there’s obviously way more room for variance, but I wanted to get a sense of how these teams were playing right before the pause, and if they were a little slow getting back to form coming out of it:

There’s nothing here. It’s a small sample, and it was a smaller tournament with a shorter break than a traditional Olympics, so I also went back to 2014 – the last time the NHL sent players to the Olympics – and went through the same exercise, while moving the goalposts slightly to look at teams who sent at least five skaters due to the expanded field. In the chart below, GP is the amount of games played during the 2013-14 season for each team by players at the 2014 Olympics, and PTS is the amount of points they cumulatively scored for that team during the year.

We did see a dip here from a handful of the teams near the top, but it was marginal, and with others improving their play there was nothing consistent enough to signal anything more than randomness. The Penguins were without top defensemen Kris Letang and Paul Martin for most of February and all of March, explaining their dip. Other teams suffered injuries, or made trades, while some were simply locked into a playoff spot without a whole lot to play for down the stretch. But what is noteworthy is the top eight teams all made the playoffs, with six of them advancing to the second round and four of them the Conference Finals. It’s fair to conclude there was no lasting impact of sending guys to the Olympics (at least not for that season).

I again made the sample smaller to take a micro look at how they were playing right before the Olympics vs. how they did in the immediacy post-Sochi:

This is a really long-winded way of saying there’s no need to make any adjustments post-Olympic break, aside from any injuries that may carry over. I mentioned on a show a few weeks ago that I may take a break from betting the NHL for a week or two after the restart to allow things to settle back into place, because I remembered some wonky results after 4 Nations last year. Looking back at my bets, and the above data, that wasn’t the case. The few wonky results I remember were simply variance in small samples that happen throughout the entire season. It’ll be business as usual for me on February 25, while being mindful of some guys potentially sitting the first game or two back.

2.)I also went back and grabbed data from the goalies who partook in each of the last three international tournaments. In each of the below charts you’ll find the goalie, their total appearances at the listed tournament, and their goals saved above expected (GSAx) in each of their first three starts back (1st, 2nd, 3rd).

4 Nations (minimum two appearances):

2014 Sochi Olympics (minimum three appearances):

*Price missed the first three weeks after the break with an injury

2010 Vancouver Olympics (minimum three appearances):

You can draw your own conclusions from this data dump, but I won’t be making any adjustments upon the NHL’s return to play.

3.)Goal leaders at the last four Olympics with NHLers present, listed as “Player, Country (Goals, Games Played)”:

Every year there are a couple of real surprises at the top, which should be expected for such a short tournament. Anything can happen over a 4-7 game sample. In 2014, Michael Grabner scored a hat trick in an 8-4 opening loss to Finland and added another two in a 3-1 win over Norway. That was enough to make him joint-top scorer. Lauris Darzins was one off the lead for a Latvia team that won just one game. In 2010, a hat trick in a 5-4 loss to Switzerland saw Tore Vikingstad come close to matching leader Iginla in three fewer games – Norway lost every game at the tournament. In 2006, Kazakhstan scored the second-fewest goals at the tournament but Yevgeniy Koreshkov nearly won top scorer before being edged out by Olli Jokinen and Teemu Selanne, who went the distance with Finland.

In all likelihood, it will be a player from one of the top-four finishers who winds up top scorer, but given the structure of the tournament it’s entirely possible those teams get a bye to the quarters and only wind up playing one extra game than a team that sneaks into the quarters via an easier matchup in the playoff. And with how loaded these top teams are, I’d expect minutes to be more evenly distributed, with scoring contributions from up and down the lineup. For the weaker teams, scoring will likely come from the same source. All it takes is one big game from someone to make things interesting, and that really opens things up in the top scorer market.

For my bets, I targeted players who will feature in a prominent offensive role (top six, first power play) for weaker nations that have the potential to put up goals. Slovakia jumped out as a team I expect to play in some high-scoring games, and they have a game against Italy to rack up goals. To a lesser extent, Denmark and Switzerland also apply here. With that logic in mind, I came up with a few long shots worth small bets to lead the Olympics in goals:

Juraj Slafkovsky, SVK (80-1)
Oliver Bjorkstrand, DEN (100-1)
Anton Lundell, FIN (175-1)*
Dalibor Dvorsky, SVK (250-1)
Tomas Tatar, SVK (300-1)
Denis Malgin, SUI (300-1)

*Lundell doesn’t fit the same mould, but he’s being undervalued given the role I expect him to have for a Finland team that could play the full seven games in Milan (don’t receive an auto-quarterfinal berth but still reach the medal games).

4.)We are taking a content pause at The Hammer next week as we spend the week planning and getting organized for an exciting year ahead. With that being said, there will be no newsletter next week, and thus no column. I’ll be back with the next edition on February 25 – the day the NHL returns. I plan on looking at some futures in there, identifying ideal trade deadline targets for each team, and maybe doing some sort of rest-of-season ranking I haven’t quite figured out yet. If there’s anything you want to see included, let me know in the #nhl channel in the Hammer Discord, or DM me on X. 

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Super Bowl Props Extravaganza Show

Every year our most popular show is our Super Bowl Props Extravaganza where we bring on tons of guests over the course of 5 hours to give out their best prop bet for Sunday's game. If you haven't watched yet and would like to you can check it out here

With that being said, these were all the picks given out

Captain Jack - Seattle not to have a successful 4th down conversion (+114)
George Tsilfidis - Drake Maye over 220.5 pass yards (-110)
China Maniac - Sam Darnold under 6.5 rush yards (-110)
Matthew Freedman - Jaxon Smith-Njigba rush yards over 0.5 (+290)
Hitman - Mack Hollins under 2.5 receptions (-140)
Ken Barkley - Over 1.5 interceptions (+112)
Austin Mock - Rhamondre Stevenson 30+ receiving yards (+140)
Sam Panayotovich - First quarter under 8.5 points (-118)
Johnny from Betstamp - Rhamondre Stevenson under 14.5 rush attempts (-122)
Clev TA - TreVeyon Henderson over 2.5 receiving yards (-118)
Kirk Evans - Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP +550
Fabian Sommer - Rhamondre Stevenson under 49.5 rush yards (-110)
Andy Molitor - Drake Maye most pass attempts (-128)
Corbie Craig - Combined total distance of successful field goals over 128.5 (-113)
Iain MacMillan - Over 7.5 punts (-113)
Adam Levitan - Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1st quarter receiving yards under 18.5 (-112)
Joey Knish - Sam Darnold to record a 40+ yard completion (+130)
Jack Miller - No 2pt conversion attempt (-196)
Geoff Fienberg - Drake Maye under 37.5 rush yards (-110)
Kyle Kirms - Stefon Diggs 3rd quarter receiving yards over 7.5 (-110)
Chris Dierkes - Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP +550
Drew Dinsick - First half alt under 17.5 (+215)
Mr. Peanut Bettor - George Holani most rushing yards (+5500)
Berryhorse - George Holani over 1.5 receptions (-128)
Doug Kezirian - TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-200)
Judah Fortgang - Rashid Shaheed most rushing yards (+6000)
Clive Bixby - Result of Patriots 1st drive - Punt (-120)
Jason Cooper - Under 38.5 first downs (-113)
Rob Pizzola - NE Patriots 1st Drive - To Reach the 50 Yard Line NO +124

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) I wanted to start here, courtesy of our friend – Florida Man, spoiled Panthers fan, long-time Edge Work watcher – Charles Saul from the Discord: “Need a breakdown for make miss playoffs markets Edgework or in the newsletter. Such a crazy race this year def some money to be made”

If you’ve been glued into betting the playoff market this season, you could have accumulated a great portfolio by now with plus-money prices on just about every team in the race to make, or miss. It’s remained largely congested throughout the season, which has resulted in some considerable odds swings on a week-to-week basis. But we’re starting to see some separation, finally. Things are far from decided, but for the first time really in 2025-26 we’re starting to get a clearer picture as to which teams truly control their own destiny. Here’s where we stand as of Wednesday, January 28:

In the East, we’re looking at a six-point gap between second and third in the wild-card race (although just four points separates third from fourth and fifth in the Metro). I think Tampa and Carolina are the only absolute playoff locks in the East, but I’m also willing to pencil in the Wings, Sabres, and Canadiens at this point – all three of whom I believe are above70%to make it. That leaves three playoff spots up for grabs – second and third in the Metro, and one wild card spot. It’s getting harder and harder to discount what the Bruins and Penguins are doing, but gun to my head, I’d pick the Capitals, Devils, and Panthers to round out the field, narrowly beating out the Penguins and Senators. I think Ottawa make things very interesting. That’s a team, along with the Capitals and Devils, who I expect to be very active around the deadline doing whatever they can to get in. Washington will get Pierre-Luc Dubois back after the Olympics, and has plenty of assets to add reinforcements up front, while New Jersey has much-needed flexibility following the Palat trade. The Devils have been playing good hockey lately and have the talent to go on quite the run out of the Olympic break. My favorite playoff bets in the East right now on FanDuel are the Capitals tomake it (+180)and the Islanders tomiss (+125).

Things are a lot less convoluted in the West, only because the quality of the middle tier is so much worse. We also have a lot more “locks” in the West: Colorado, Minnesota, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. I’d also be pretty surprised at this point if the Mammoth or Kings don’t make it. It’s not that I’m in love with either of them, but they are a clear class above the teams they’re competing with, and that’s reflected in their current playoff odds (Mammoth -475,Kings -300). I’m not betting either at those numbers, but I think they’re both good enough teams to comfortably fend off the challenge of the teams they’re fighting with. If I’m right, that leaves just one more spot up for grabs, which will come down to the Ducks, Sharks, Kraken, Predators, or Jets. I am extremely out on the Kraken, I think the Jets have simply dug too big a hole to climb out of, and as much as I love how Nashville’s been playing, I think it realistically comes down to the Ducks and Sharks. It would be awesome to see Celebrini carry San Jose into the playoffs on his back, but selfishly I have a lot of pre-flop positions on the Ducks and I also think they’d be a much better watch in the first round. I love how they responded to losing nine straight, by winning seven in a row without both Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson. They’re getting both guys back soon, and Lukas Dostal has rediscovered his form. This is a really quality Ducks roster when fully healthy, and I think the talent gap between them and San Jose is just too much for the Sharks to overcome. I wouldn’t be running to bet it at-180, though. I don’t see a ton of value in the make/miss playoff markets in the West.

2.)The NHL needs a solution for offside reviews. There are a lot of rule hardos out there who will fight back on this, but there are few things worse for the game from an entertainment perspective than having to sit through a five-minute replay review that wipes out a goal because 45 seconds before the puck went in, a player who had no involvement in the zone entry was half-an-inch offside when the puck officially crossed the line. Of course, the only way to determine the play was offside in these cases is to slow the replay down to a borderline standstill and look at it from 10 different angles. It’s just not in the spirit of the rule, and it’s not how offside replay came to be. It exists today because an egregious missed call over a decade ago, to prevent that sort of thing from happening again, but has snowballed into something so much worse. I’d rather live with a bad missed call from time to time than sit through what offside reviews have become.

There are a lot of ways to try an fix the problem. We could look at the timing of the offside in relation to the goal, whether or not the offside player was involved in the zone entry, or how obvious the offside really was (can we tell in real time from one camera angle, or do we need to look from several angles and slow it down frame by frame?). But at the end of the day, if you start to incorporate all these stipulations, it gets convoluted and becomes somewhat arbitrary. The simplest fix, in my opinion, is this: put a 60 second timer on offside reviews. That’s it. If a goal is challenged, the refs have 60 seconds to determine if the play was offside. They can use whatever replays they want in that time, but if they can’t conclusively overturn the call on the ice by the end of the 60 seconds then it wasn’t an egregious mistake, the goal should stand, and we can all move on with our lives.

3.)We had a trade yesterday – the second in as many days for the Islanders, both with fellow Tri-State rivals. On Tuesday night they traded Maxim Tsyplakov for Ondrej Palat, a 2026 3rd-round pick, and a 2027 6th-round pick. They received a fair bit of praise for the deal, including from Frank Seravalli and Justin Bourne. I don’t see it the same way. The Isles’ roster is marginally better with Palat on it than Tsyplakov, and I understand they turn an asset that was free to acquire into a couple picks and an experienced player, but Palat looks very close to cooked and he’s making a lot of money for the next 1.5 seasons. The Isles have the room right now because of injuries, but adding something of an anchor for 6 million next season is pretty limiting. You’re also letting a division rival off the hook – one that has been desperately trying to clear space to take a big swing. This gives the Devils a lot of flexibility to improve the roster ahead of a hopeful playoff push, and I can’t help but think they should have been charged a much higher premium to offload Palat’s contract than they did here. Tsyplakov hasn’t produced much this year, but he’s a big kid who is half a year removed from a 35-point season (and +4 on a bad team). Palat hasn’t put up 35 points since 2021-22 and he’s being paid way more. I don’t think it’s some disastrous deal by any means for NYI, but I think if you’re going to let a direct rival off the hook, you should be hiking the tax. They didn’t do that here by any means.

________________________________________

Player Props to Watch – Super Bowl Market Check-In

As we look towards Super Bowl week, the prop market is already starting to take shape.

Even this early, you can already see meaningful disagreement across books on key props. Some numbers are tightly clustered, while others show big gaps depending on where you look. For example, you’ve got Kenneth Walker’s receiving yards, Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson’s longest rush, and Sam Darnold’s pass attempts all showing clear separation between sharper books and slower-moving ones. In a market this liquid and this heavily bet, those gaps don’t exist by accident.

This is exactly how Super Bowl prop markets always behave: limits are high, public interest is massive, and numbers move based on information, modeling, and respected money long before most bettors realize what’s happening. Some books adjust quickly. Others lag. And that’s where value consistently comes from.

What makes this Super Bowl week different is the scale. With hundreds of props, alternate lines, and novelty markets, it becomes impossible to track this manually. That’s why the real edge is not “having a take” — it’s seeing the entire market at once, knowing which books move first, and spotting where prices are still stale.

That’s what Betstamp PRO is built for. It shows you:
 

• Where the sharpest books are pricing props

• Which books are slow to react

• Where the true market consensus actually is

• And where you’re getting a number that simply isn’t available anywhere else

As Super Bowl week progresses, you’ll see these boards change fast. Some props will move multiple times a day based on usage expectations, game-script assumptions, and matchup angles. The bettors who win this week aren’t guessing outcomes. They’re tracking market movement and taking the best version of the number.

Get the Betstamp PRO Props screen 50% off TODAY.

Lines subject to change. The Super Bowl prop market is one of the most efficient and information-driven markets of the year — and also one of the easiest places to find value if you know where to look.

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Injury Reports for Championship Weekend as of Wednesday Evening
***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. 

New England at Denver
New England - OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, EDGE Harold Landry DNP, LB Christian Ellis Limited, CB Carlton Davis Limited, RB Terrell Jennings Full (Working back from I.R.), DT Joshua Farmer Full (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant Limited, WR Troy Franklin Limited, C Alex Forsyth Limited, RB J.K. Dobbins Limited (Working back from I.R.), C Luke Wattenberg Full (Working back from I.R.), LB Drew Sanders Full (Working back from I.R.)

L.A. Rams at Seattle
L.A. Rams - EDGE Byron Young DNP, CB Emmanuel Forbes Limited
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold Limited, OT Charles Cross DNP, OT Josh Jones DNP, OT Amari Knight DNP, EDGE Uchenna Nwosu Limited
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) The current run each Atlantic Division team is on, with extremely arbitrary cutoffs for each of them:

Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-0-1
Detroit Red Wings: 11-3-1
Montreal Canadiens: 11-3-3
Buffalo Sabres: 16-3-1
Boston Bruins: 8-2-0
Toronto Maple Leafs: 9-2-3
Florida Panthers: 13-8-1
Ottawa Senators: 5-6-3

2.) It’s getting late early for the Panthers. They’re playing at a 100-point pace in their last 22 games and have lost considerable ground in the race. It’s wild what’s going on in the Atlantic this year. Florida desperately needs to get healthy because there’s a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do it. Matthew Tkachuk is back and Brad Marchand is close, but Seth Jones has just been ruled out until after the Olympic break. It’s actually insane that Marchand has played 51 and Jones 61 regular season games with the Panthers, but Tkachuk has yet to play a regular season game with either. It looks like a minimum of 95 points will be required to secure a wild card berth this year. To reach that, the Panthers will have to play at close to a 102-point pace the rest of the way – certainly doable, but with every loss the margin for error shrinks. I also think the current projected cutoff of 95 points for a wild card spot will climb over the coming weeks as we begin to see some more separation between the contenders and pretenders.

3.) I wanted to take a closer look at a couple of these other Atlantic teams, starting with the Wings. They haven’t been too impressive over this 15-game run (11-3-1), but their overall season numbers are fine and don’t scream major regression. What does scream regression, though, is their injury luck. They’ve been the healthiest team in the NHL this season. Their top four defensemen have missed a combined three games, and their top-nine forwards have missed a combined 26 (Patrick Kane 15, James Van Riemsdyk 9, Lucas Raymond 2, Marco Kasper 1). Of their top 12 players in time on ice per game, just one of them (Kane) has missed more than three games. It’s been a massive reason behind their success this season.

4.) Amidst their 16-3-1 run, the Sabres are 22nd in expected goal share and third in actual goal share at five-on-five. They are 24th in shot attempt share, but second in PDO. Of those 16 wins, just six of them have come against teams currently in a playoff spot (EDM, NYI, BOS, DAL, ANA, MTL). It’s great to see that fanbase taste some success after years of disappointment, I’m just not sure how sustainable it all is. Losing Josh Norris really hurts, too. He’s missed the last four games and is likely to miss the next eight before the Olympic break as well. In these last four games without him they’ve posted a 40% expected goal share at five-on-five. I think these next eight games will basically determine whether or not they will be a playoff time come the end of the season. Of those eight games, six are against teams they’re directly competing with for a playoff spot (Canadiens twice, Islanders, Leafs, Panthers, Penguins).

5.) Remember when Ryan Warofsky said “I’d give up one of my children for a fucking win,” after the Sharks started 0-4-2? They’re 11th in the NHL in points percentage since then. The underlying metrics are ugly, but what a job he’s done with this group. He’s not going to win the Jack Adams in all likelihood, but there’s no way he should have longer odds right now than Lindy Ruff, Joel Quenneville, or Todd McLellan – all of whom have done a great job this season, but have much more at their disposal.

6.) My Jack Adams vote right now would go to Jon Cooper (+490) over Jared Bednar (-115). Obviously the Avalanche have been unbelievable this year, but Nathan MacKinnon is probably going to win the Hart and Cale Makar is going to win the Norris. They’ve also been blessed with great health this season. Of their top 16 players in time on ice per game, 12 of them have played in all 47 games. The other four have combined to miss just 37 games – Toews (7), Nichushkin (9), Girard (15), Landeskog (6). The Lightning would kill for anything close to that sort of health.

Here’s the list of important Lightning players who have missed time this season (and how many games):

Victor Hedman (30)
Ryan McDonagh (30)
Erik Cernak (19)
Nick Paul (19)
Emil Lilleberg (16)
Brayden Point (11)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (7)
Charle-Edouard D’Astous (7)
Pontus Holmberg (7)
Darren Raddysh (6)
Zemgus Girgensons (6)
Brandon Hagel (5)
Anthony Cirelli (4)
Nikita Kucherov (4)
JJ Moser (2)

It’s a miracle the Lightning are first in the East and only 10 points back of the league-leading Avalanche, and they’re doing it in a stronger conference against a tougher schedule. Coop should finally win his first Jack Adams this year.

7.) Injured players I’m watching who will (or at least could) return at some point before the Olympic break:

ANA: Troy Terry (no clear timetable, could be back at any point here)
BOS: None
BUF: Josh Norris (week-to-week, unlikely back before Olympics, but possible he is)
CGY: Blake Coleman (day-to-day)
CAR: Shayne Gostisbehere (day-to-day)
CHI: Frank Nazar (could return Thursday), Andre Burakovsky (day-to-day, illness and family matter), Teuvo Teravainen (no clear update, assumed to be day-to-day)
COL: Valeri Nichushkin (expected back tonight), Devon Toews (could return as early as this weekend), Gabriel Landeskog (“a ways out” still as of today, but initial timeline suggests he should be back still before the break)
CBJ: Mason Marchment (skating, but “a couple weeks away”), Denton Mateychuk (nearing return)
DAL: Mikko Rantanen (day-to-day, illness), Lian Bichsel (skating, through seven weeks of initial 6-8 week timeline)
EDM: Leon Draisaitl (expected back later this week), Kasperi Kapanen (“out a week” as of Tuesday)
FLA: Brad Marchand (nearing return)
LAK: Drew Doughty (day-to-day, illness), Anze Kopitar (nearing return), Trevor Moore (nearing return), Darcy Kuemper (day-to-day)
MIN: Matt Boldy (should be back next week), Joel Eriksson Ek (nearing return), Marcus Johansson (nearing return)
MTL: Patrik Laine (nearing return), Alexandre Texier (day-to-day)
NSH: None
NJD: Luke Hughes (dislocated shoulder, timeline unclear)
NYI: Bo Horvat (could be back Saturday)
NYR: None
OTT: Linus Ullmark (could return at any point, not sure that he will though)
PHI: Dan Vladar (nearing return)
PIT: Erik Karlsson (nearing return)
SJS: None
SEA: None
STL: Robert Thomas (could be back by end of next week), Oskar Sundqvist (no clear timeline with deep cut on ankle), Mathieu Joseph (day-to-day)
TBL: Victor Hedman (still expected back before Olympics), Ryan McDonagh (getting closer), Brayden Point (no update, still not ruled out for Olympics), Anthony Cirelli (not expected to miss any time)
TOR: William Nylander (no timeline, not expected to be a long absence), Anthony Stolarz (on conditioning stint, back shortly)
UTA: None
VAN: Marco Rossi (another 2-3 weeks, very unlikely he will play before break but not ruled out)
VGK: None
WSH: Tom Wilson (has been day-to-day over two weeks now, should be back soon)
WPG: Neal Pionk (still week-to-week, no clear timeline)

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Player Props to Watch – Prediction Markets Enter the Board

One of the biggest upgrades to Betstamp PRO is the addition of Kalshi prediction market odds directly into the prop screen — meaning you can now see how prediction markets and sportsbooks are pricing the same outcomes side by side.

A great example is RJ Harvey’s rushing yards (NE @ DEN). Traditional books are mostly clustered around 42.5 yards, while Kalshi is trading 49.5 — nearly a full touchdown of separation in the underlying expectation. That’s not noise. That’s two different markets expressing two very different opinions.

Looking at the Kalshi orderbook and line history, the Under 49.5 has been consistently bid, while the sports betting market never followed the move up. In other words, the prediction market is implying a materially higher median outcome than sportsbooks are willing to hang — and Betstamp PRO now lets you see that disagreement instantly, in the same screen.

This is the real value of integrating prediction markets: you’re no longer just comparing book vs book. You’re comparing sportsbooks vs prediction markets — two completely different liquidity pools, two different types of participants, and often two different opinions about the same player.

Get the Betstamp PRO Props screen 50% off TODAY.

Lines subject to change.

________________________________________

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Injuries We are Watching for Championship Weekend

Denver - QB Bo Nix (Season Over), WR  Pat Bryant (Left Game), WR  Troy Franklin (Left Game), C Alex Forsyth (Left Game), LB Drew Sanders (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Rams - CB Emmanuel Forbes (Left Game)
New England - CB Carlton Davis (Left Game), S Craig Woodson (Left Game), RB Terrell Jennings (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - RB Zach Charbonnet (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Left Game), OT Josh Jones (Injured Inactive)

________________________________________
 

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Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

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Injury Reports for Divisional Weekend as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. 

Buffalo at Denver (Saturday)
Buffalo - RB Ty Johnson DNP, TE Dalton Kincaid Limited, EDGE Greg Rousseau Limited, EDGE A.J. Epenesa Limited, LB Terrel Bernard Limited, LB Matt Milano Limited, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Maxwell Hairston DNP, S Jordan Poyer Out, WR Curtis Samuel Full (Working back from I.R.), DT Ed Oliver Limited (Working back from I.R.), S Damar Hamlin Full (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - LB Dre Greenlaw Limited, LB Drew Sanders Limited (Working back from I.R.)

San Francisco at Seattle (Saturday Nighter)
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall Limited, OG Dominick Puni Limited, EDGE Keion White Limited, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos Limited, LB Dee Winters Limited, LB Luke Gifford DNP, S Ji'Ayir Brown Out, LB Fred Warner Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - OT Charles Cross Limited, OT Josh Jones DNP, CB Tariq Woolen Limited, TE Elijah Arroyo Full (Working back from I.R.)

Houston at New England (Sunday)
Houston - RB Jawhar Jordan Limited, WR Nico Collins DNP, WR Justin Watson DNP, OT Trent Brown DNP, OG Tytus Howard Limited, OG Ed Ingram Limited, EDGE Denico Autry DNP, DT Sheldon Rankins Limited, LB Azeez Al-Shaiir Limited, CB Kamari Lassiter Limited
New England - OT Morgan Moses DNP, OT Thayer Munford Jr. DNP, TE Hunter Henry Limited, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, EDGE Anfernee Jennings Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga Limited, CB Christian Gonzalez Limited, RB Terrell Jennings (Working back from I.R.)

Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday Nighter)
L.A. Rams - OG Kevin Dotson Limited, NT Poona Ford Limited
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR D.J. Moore Limited, CB Nick McCloud DNP, OT Braxton Jones Full (Working back from I.R.)
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL betting market
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) In last week’s newsletter I called into question the efficiency of the NHL market. Every day I’m given new examples that strengthen my belief in its inefficiency, but there’s one that especially stood out from the past week that I’d like to touch on here.

Connor Bedard made his return to the Blackhawks lineup on Friday. There was speculation he could return that night to face the Capitals, prompting some early Chicago money. It was eventually confirmed at morning skate, as the Hawks took even more money, moving from a peak of +132 overnight to as short as +107, eventually settling at +110 ahead of pregame warmups – a nearly 5% move.

On Monday, Frank Seravalli reported at 7:51pm ET that Bedard would miss Chicago’s game against Edmonton with an illness – a complete surprise with no previous warning after he was a full participant at morning skate. The Oilers crawled on Pinny, ever so slowly, from -153 to -165. There was even buyback on the Blackhawks mixed in there.

To summarize: on Friday the market believes Bedard is worth 5%. On Monday, less than 2%. Okay.

2.) Been seeing a lot of “Leafs are back” on my timeline, in the media, and in the Hammer Daily chat. They’re 8-1-2 in their last 11 since firing assistant coach Marc Savard, who was apparently doing the worst job anyone has ever done in running a power play given the immediate returns that unit has seen since his departure. I’m not sure how much I’m buying into this winning run, though. The win over the Avalanche on Monday is one for the mantle, although that easily could (and should) have been a loss given how that one played out – Colorado more than doubled them in expected goals at 5-on-5. The other seven wins? They beat Pittsburgh (bad), reeling Senators and Devils teams with miserable goaltending, a last-place (at the time) Jets team that was in the second half of a back-to-back (also their third game in four nights), a significantly depleted Panthers roster, a free-falling Flyers team (in overtime), and the current last-placed Canucks. Now you can only beat who is in front of you, but it’s how they’re winning these games that has me most skeptical.

Over this 11-game span they have an expected goal share of 45% (26th in the NHL, just below the Jets and above the Kraken). They are 26th in shot attempts/60 and 30th in shot attempts against/60, leaving then 28th in shot attempt share, just below the Flames and Rangers. Their 41.5% share of High Danger Chances is 30th in the NHL, just below the Blues and Jets. They’re 31st in expected goals for/60, but goalies have posted a collective minus-8.73 goals saved above expected against them during this run so we haven’t noticed. Meanwhile, Toronto’s goalies have combined to save 8.98 goals above expected over that same span – a nearly 18-goal difference between them. They’re also getting unsustainably great returns on special teams, where they’ve posted a 96.2 Net PK% (first in the NHL) and a 28.0 Net PP% (seventh in the NHL) over that span.

Water always finds its level, as they say. The Leafs are better than they showed in the first two months, but nowhere close to as good as their record over the last three weeks. The reality is they fall somewhere in between, but the underlying metrics dating all the way back to last season are rather uninspiring, and I’d say they’re still closer to the team they were in the first two months than what they’ve showed the past three weeks. FanDuel has them +135 to make the playoffs (42.6%), which I think is pretty close to fair. 

3.) There are a number of to make/miss playoff numbers in market that I don’t think are anywhere close to fair, though. I haven’t given out many bets in this column of late, so let’s change that now. Here are some playoff prices at FanDuel I love at current (as always, do shop around):

-Washington Capitals to make the playoffs -210
-Utah Mammoth to make the playoffs -155
-Winnipeg Jets to make the playoffs +380
-Seattle Kraken to miss the playoffs -210
-New Jersey Devils to miss the playoffs -200
-Philadelphia Flyers to miss the playoffs -145

4.) There’s a lot of blame to go around in New Jersey for the current predicament the Devils find themselves in – a team most had comfortably penciled into a playoff spot but now finds its season circling the drain, again. One of the biggest, in my opinion, is how poorly the team has drafted. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier were both consensus first-overall picks, so there’s no credit awarded there. Jesper Bratt is their only real draft hit (162nd overall in 2016). Beyond that, returns have been terrible from their draft classes.

The 2017-2020 classes were especially bad. In 2017 they got nothing from their 10 picks after taking Hischier first overall (they took Jesper Boqvist at 36, just a couple picks before Jason Robertson and Eetu Luostarinen). They missed on 2018 17th-overall pick Ty Smith and traded away the only other NHLers from that class (Akira Schmid, Yegor Sharangovich). In 2019, after taking Hughes first overall, they had six picks in rounds 2-4. Those players have combined to play 30 games for the Devils. In 2020 they took Alexander Holtz seventh overall. The next seven picks were Jack Quinn, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell, Seth Jarvis, and Dylan Holloway. They took Dawson Mercer that same year, who has been about their only “hit” in recent memory. They had four other picks from rounds 1-4 that year and only one of them has played games for the team – Nico Daws (53).

We’ll see what happens with 2021 fourth-overall pick Luke Hughes and 2022 second-overall pick Simon Nemec, but Hughes was just recently booed on home ice for how bad he’s been, and Nemec is struggling to put it all together. It’s really hard to find sustained success in this league when you have to constantly build out your roster through free agency and trades. Largely wasting all that draft capital from 2018-2020 is a huge reason the Devils are

5.) Quick hitters:

-Connor Hellebuyck in 13 starts since returning from injury: -4.53 GSAA (63rd in NHL), 3.53 GSAx (30th), .882 SV% (42nd), 3.01 GAA (t-45th)
-Pending UFA Alex Tuch is earning himself quite the payday. He’s seventh in the NHL in five-on-five points/60 this season
-No one has more five-on-five points since December 20th than… Juraj Slafkovsky
-Noah Dobson’s 21 five-on-five points are more than any Islanders player this season (Anders Lee and Matt Barzal are tied atop the team with 19 each)
-The catalyst behind the Ducks’ current 3-11-2 run? A league-worst (by a decent margin) .847 save percentage

________________________________________

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Suuma's Takeaways from Wild Card Weekend
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

49ers–Eagles: This Told Us More About Philly Than San Francisco

San Francisco survived Philadelphia despite losing George Kittle to a season-ending Achilles injury. Brock Purdy made a handful of quality throws, Kyle Shanahan dialed up some nice concepts, and while the run game struggled for long stretches, the 49ers still posted a 52% overall success rate and 55% success on early-down passes. That’s a functional offensive performance under difficult circumstances.

But the bigger takeaway isn’t about the Niners — it’s about the Eagles. San Francisco likely doesn’t win this game if Philadelphia’s offense doesn’t once again collapse under its own weight.

Per Jon Ledyard, Jalen Hurts was pressured on just 6 of 37 dropbacks — a 16% pressure rate — with an average time to throw of 4.37 seconds. That’s an absurdly clean pocket environment. And yet, the Eagles offense still went nowhere. A team simply cannot look that broken when the opposing pass rush is a non-factor.

Philadelphia failed to complete a single pass over 15 air yards against a Niners pass defense that has been bad all season and generated virtually no pressure in this game. That’s not about matchup or variance — it’s a structural offensive problem. This game confirmed everything we already knew about the Eagles offense, far more than it told us anything new about San Francisco.

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Is This the Bills’ Year?

Buffalo handled Jacksonville with a solid EPA advantage, helped by two Trevor Lawrence interceptions — one of them tipped. On paper, this was a tricky matchup for the Bills because their run defense is legitimately shaky, and the Jaguars exploited that, running at a 57% success rate.

What’s interesting is how Jacksonville chose to attack. They ran efficiently, yet still leaned pass-heavy: 27 early-down passes vs just 17 early-down runs. It’s fair to wonder whether a more run-centric approach could have changed the outcome, because Buffalo couldn’t stop it.

Here’s the key point going forward: no other remaining AFC playoff team has Jacksonville’s kind of run-game diversity. Denver doesn’t. Pittsburgh doesn’t. Houston doesn’t. New England doesn’t. And Buffalo’s pass defense is getting healthier with the potential return of Maxwell Hairston and Terrel Bernard.

The Bills’ biggest defensive weakness might not get meaningfully stressed again until the Super Bowl. And when your quarterback is basically a cyborg, that’s often enough. Quietly, this might be Buffalo’s year.

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The Rams Defense Is Becoming a Concern

Chris Shula deserves credit. He’s done impressive work all season with one of the cheapest defenses in the league, featuring only two former first-round picks — one of whom is already on his second team. For the first three months, the Rams defense punched far above its weight.

Lately, though, the cracks are showing.

Against Carolina, the Rams generated a 45% pressure rate on Bryce Young (per Next Gen Stats) — and still allowed the Panthers to move the ball and generate chunk plays. That disconnect shows up in the broader metrics: since Week 13, the Rams defense ranks 20th in EPA/play, but top -10 in success rate, despite playing four games against Carolina and Arizona.

The concern is the secondary. Injuries haven’t helped, but even accounting for that, the talent level on the back end may simply not be good enough. If pressure alone can’t consistently break offenses — even weak ones — the margin disappears quickly in January.

That puts even more weight on Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. If the defense can’t hold up, the Rams’ playoff ceiling depends entirely on offensive perfection — and that’s a dangerous way to live.

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Injuries We are Watching for Divisional Weekend
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), RB Ty Johnson (Injured Inactive), WR Gabe Davis (Season Over), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Maxwell Hairston (Injured Inactive), S Jordan Poyer (Left Game), S Damar Hamlin (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - OT Ozzy Trapilo (Season Over), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Injured Inactive), DT Andrew Billings (Left Game), LB T.J. Edwards (Season Over), CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Injured Inactive), OT Braxton Jones (Working back from I.R.)
Denver (Returning from Bye) - DT John Franklin-Myers, LB Dre Greenlaw, S P.J. Locke
Houston - TBD Playing Tonight
L.A Rams - WR Jordan Whittington (Injured Inactive), TE Terrance Ferguson (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Injured Inactive), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Left Game)
New England - NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Gonzalez (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - TBD Playing Tonight
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), TE George Kittle (Season Over), LB Dee Winters (Injured Inactive), LB Luke Gifford (Injured Inactive), S Ji'Ayir Brown (Left Game)
Seattle (Returning from Bye) - OT Charles Cross, S Coby Bryant, TE Elijah Arroyo (Working back from I.R.)

________________________________________
 

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Circa Million Superteam Final Results

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

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Injury Reports for Wild Card Weekend as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

L.A. Rams at Carolina (Saturday)
L.A. Rams- WR Jordan Whittington DNP, TE Terrance Ferguson DNP, TE Tyler Higbee Limited, OG Kevin Dotson DNP, DT Braden Fiske Limited, CB Josh Wallace DNP
Carolina- OG Robert Hunt Full (Working back from I.R.), OG  Chandler Zavala Full (Working back from I.R.)

Green Bay at Chicago (Saturday Nighter)
Green Bay- QB Malik Willis Limited, WR Dontayvion Wicks Limited, OT Zach Tom Limited, S Javon Bullard Limited
Chicago- WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR D.J. Moore Limited, OT Ozzy Trapilo Limited, EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DNP, CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson DNP, CB Jaylon Jones Limited, CB Kyler Gordon Limited (Working back from I.R.), OT Braxton Jones Full (Working back from I.R.)

Buffalo at Jacksonville
Buffalo - RB Ty Johnson DNP, WR Josh Palmer DNP, TE Dalton Kincaid Limited, DT DaQuan Jones Limited, LB Terrel Bernard DNP, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Maxwell Hairston Likely Out, S Jordan Poyer Limited, K Matt Prater DNP, S Damar Hamlin Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville- OT Cole Van Lanen DNP, OG Patrick Mekari Limited, CB Greg Newsome II Limited, CB Montaric Brown Limited

San Francisco at Philadelphia
San Francisco- WR Ricky Pearsall DNP, TE George Kittle Limited, OT Trent Williams DNP, EDGE Keion White DNP, DL Yetur Gross-Matos Limited, DT Jordan Elliott Limited, LB Dee Winters DNP, LB Luke Gifford Limited
Philadelphia- TE Dallas Goedart Limited, TE Grant Calcaterra DNP, OT Lane Johnson Limited, OG Brett Toth DNP, DT Jalen Carter Limited, LB Nakobe Dean Limited, S Marcus Epps Limited, EDGE Azeez Ojulari Full (Working back from I.R.)

L.A. Chargers at New England (Sunday Nighter)
L.A. Chargers- RB Omarion Hampton DNP, OT Jamaree Salyer Limited, OT Austin Deculus DNP, EDGE Bud Dupree DNP, CB Donte Jackson Limited, CB/S Elijah Molden Limited
New England- OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, OG Jared Wilson Limited, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga DNP, LB Robert Spillane Limited

Houston at Pittsburgh (Monday Nighter)
Houston- OT Trent Brown, CB Kamari Lassiter
Pittsburgh- Nothing of Note
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

As we've crossed the midpoint of the season this past weekend, I took a deep dive into my betting results from the first half. It’s the most money I’ve ever won over a half-season betting the NHL – not just in total dollars, but in ROI as well. As I continue to scale up and bet more than ever before, I’d expect that ROI to take a hit. That hasn’t happened. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite, and to a rather surprising degree, despite a larger share of my money being bet later than ever before.

There have been some massive changes to my betting habits this season. I started to incorporate them last year, but this season they’ve completely taken over. In the past, the majority of my betting would be done by mid-afternoon Eastern Time. I’d bet my first round of money on openers (typically my highest volume), another round during morning skates for the east coast games (between 10:30-11am), and another during morning skates for the west coast games (between 1-2pm). That would pretty much be the extent of it. I’d have some bets during warmups if I was waiting for a player’s status or a starting goalie confirmation, but for the most part my betting was done early.

This season, my betting has been far more aggressive and reactive. For starters, I’m betting a lot fewer openers, which, for the most part, are as good as ever (at sharp books, not rec shops). Instead, I’m betting way more, way later than ever before. So much of my volume this season has come from betting games I had no interest in at open. In other words, a lot of my bets are me fading big money that enters the market, creating numbers I never imagined would be available.

A lot of that comes down to how little two-way action exists on gameday. Once a side or total moves in the morning, the market acts as if it’s already “the winner.” People either chase the steam, pushing it further, or sit out because they missed the best of the number. There’s no market resistance. Every night, we see several big, late moves on a side or total in the 30 minutes before puck drop – often on a number that’s already been bet all day, or hasn’t moved at all. I find myself fading a lot of these moves, simply because they make no sense and create unexpected value on the other side. They aren’t driven by surprise goalie confirmations or injuries – not that the market really even reacts to injuries unless it’s a star player, anyways. Sometimes, numbers even steam late despite injury news that should logically draw money on the other side.

Abandoning my belief in market efficiency has been one of the biggest and most uncomfortable adjustments I’ve had to make over the past year. It’s been a gradual process, but I’ve fully come around over the past three months. This is the most confident I’ve ever been fading the market, the least I’ve cared what others are betting (outside of trying to study it for my own market entry), and certainly the least I’ve paid attention to CLV. It’s also the least CLV has ever mattered to my results. All of those points have resulted in me having some uncomfortably big positions on games way more often than ever before. There are several nights a week where I wind up with a very large position on a game simply because the market moves against a bet I’ve already made, and because I no longer care, I’ll keep adding to it. This isn’t just my opinion, either. I’ve spoken to prominent people on both sides of the counter in the NHL betting space, and there have been several mentions of the fact that there are more perplexing line moves this year than in years past. I don’t have a reason as to why, and neither do they. It’s something I’m still working on trying to understand.

Just looking at the past few days alone provides a bunch of examples. On Saturday, I bet the Senators at -125 after Winnipeg money came in, then added at -114 after more Jets money flooded the market. It closed -117 and the Sens won 4-2. I also had over 6 -115 in Lightning/Sharks. That got bet up to 6.5 -103 overnight before coming all the way back to 6 -106, where I added more. It closed 6 -108 and finished 7-3. On Sunday, I bet Habs/Stars over 6 -120 close to open, then added at 6 -112 very late after the under got smacked before post. It finished 4-3. On Tuesday, I bet Stars/Hurricanes over 6 -113 in the afternoon, after betting it at -115 nearly 24 hours earlier. It touched 6.5 -102 overnight before a flood of gameday under money came in with no resistance. It finished 6-3. Also on Tuesday, the Predators and Blue Jackets continued to take money throughout the day. At 7:30pm in the #NHL channel in the Hammer Discord – pretty close to puck drop – I posted that I was betting the Oilers -140 and Sharks +117. Less than an hour later, now incredibly close to puck drop, more money came in on the opposite sides, and I posted that I was adding more on the Oilers at -135 and Sharks +125. The Oilers won 6-2 and the Sharks won 5-2. Sure, I’m cherry picking, and they aren’t all winners, but I am ending up with huge positions on these and way more of them are winning than losing. Sure, three months is too small a sample, but my record on these has been absurdly good. I’m sure regression will hit eventually, but to what degree is the question. A month ago I said the same thing: “I’m running way too good, it has to turn soon.” It has only got better since.

So, why is this happening?

It’s not because people betting the NHL now are suddenly dumb, although I do believe some money being thrown around isn’t very sharp. One big reason I believe we’re getting some nonsensical moves near post is that one group behind them is opening live-betting opportunities for itself. The NHL market is not like the NFL. You can significantly shift the closing line with a couple of 25k clicks near post. For a group with a massive bankroll, that’s nothing, and what they are then left with is a live line that’s anchored to that closing price, where they can get down closer to six figures a click on VIP accounts at rec books. This opens up great betting opportunities for those of us who don’t have bankrolls big enough to fake an entire market near post.

You can also very easily fake the entire market early on gameday with a few 3k max clicks at a sharp book, sending a line flying for you to bet the other side on PPH. That doesn’t explain the lack of buyback, but again, in my experience the NHL is by far the least efficient of the efficient markets. It’s not like the NFL, CFB, or NBA. Limits are lower at sharper books and there’s way less competition, with a lot of pros simply focusing resources elsewhere. The groups who shaped the market and closing lines five years ago are all gone. The landscape is a lot more open for bettors, and in my experience not all of the new money is particularly sharp. I know of at least one prominent group that doesn’t care about players when pricing games. It’s hard to be efficient when you don’t pay attention to who is in and out of the lineup. I’ve brought up specific examples of this in past articles, where key player injuries are being completely ignored in market. I just can’t believe in the efficiency or legitimacy of the market given all these factors.

It took me a lot of time to arrive here. I had to completely change my view of the market and my approach to betting into it. I abandoned my belief in market efficiency and stopped fearing opposing money. With that, I gained a ton of confidence in my own stuff, and that’s been the biggest catalyst for my success this season. In past years, I would not have dreamed of adding to a position of mine the market disagreed with. In fact, in many instances I would have probably tried to dump it. Now I’m not only content keeping it but aggressively adding to it wherever possible. I don’t know if this is sustainable. And I don’t know if this is even newsworthy, or just noise from a small sample. This has simply been my experience this season, and my approach as someone who has been quite involved betting the NHL for a while now.

I am definitely not telling you to go out there and fade every big line move. I’m also not saying every big move in the NHL market is bad, or fake. I agree with many of them. I am simply telling you the root of my success this season has come from taking a stance, procuring my own source of truth, and developing conviction in my process. Time will tell how well this holds.

________________________________________

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Wild Card Weekend

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Nothing

To watch their game by game analysis of Wild Card Weekend Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Wild Card Weekend
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
*Note some teams made healthy players inactive for Week 18. We have done our best to capture guys who had an injury, even if they're likely to return for playoffs

Buffalo - EDGE Joey Bosa (Injured Inactive), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Maxwell Hairston (Left Game), S Jordan Poyer (Injured Inactive), K Matt Prater (Left Game)
Carolina - DT Tershawn Warton (Injured Inactive), DT Bobby Brown III (Left Game), LB Claudin Cherelus (Injured Inactive), OG Robert Hunt (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Injured Inactive)
Denver (Bye Week) - DT John Franklin-Myers (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Injured Inactive), S P.J. Locke (Left Game)
Green Bay - WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive), CB Bo Melton (Left Game), S Javon Bullard (Left Game)
Houston - OT Trent Brown (Injured Inactive), CB Kamari Lassiter (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - OT Jamaree Salyer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Bud Dupree (Left Game), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Injured Inactive), WR Jordan Whittington (Left Game), TE Terrance Ferguson (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Injured Inactive), CB Josh Wallace (Injured Inactive), CB/S Quentin Lake (Working back from I.R.)
New England - OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Harold Landry (Injured Inactive), NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - TE Dallas Goedart (Injured Inactive), OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Injured Inactive), S Marcus Epps (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - Nothing of Note
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Stinger/Won't miss game), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Williams (Injured Inactive), LB Tatum Bethune (Left Game), LB Dee Winters (Left Game)
Seattle (Bye Week) - OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), S Coby Bryant (Injured Inactive)

________________________________________
 

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Year in Review

I haven’t written a pure betting newsletter in a few months, and I was reflecting on my 2025 betting year, and thought it would make for a good one. Overall, 2025 was quite successful for me. It was not as good as 2024, but it was my second most successful year betting. It felt a lot more challenging than 2024, but I think that’s mostly because we had some significant downswings, which always outweigh the big upswings emotionally. 2024 was far more consistent.

Prediction Markets:

2025 will go down in history as a defining year in betting, and that is because of prediction markets. It’s crazy to think that my first bet placed on a prediction market was on January 14, 2025. PMs existed in 2024, but mostly as political betting websites, and they weren’t really on my radar. Now they’re everything, and they look to be the main focus of most serious bettors for years to come.

One thing I already knew, but that was very much reinforced for me in 2025, is that trying to predict where the sports betting landscape is going past a twelve-month horizon is incredibly difficult, and likely not worth my time. Either that, or I am very bad at predicting where sports betting is going due to my warped view of only really talking to winning bettors. I remember in 2021 I won what I considered at the time a really solid amount of money betting, and in my head I thought, “I’ll never be able to repeat that—the market simply just won’t let me.” Now, in 2025, being a winning sports bettor is very much still a thing, and for many it’s a better landscape than pretty much anytime since the early legalization boom.

For the first five to six months of the year, you could essentially put up any prop as an arb to the market, only by 1c, so you were essentially just getting the price you’d be betting at FD/DK/Builder and get it filled for nearly infinite liquidity on PMs. Not only that, but Captain Jack made a video about how this person (me, and many others I’m sure) posting $20k of liquidity on an NBA prop was likely not sharp! Sadly, the Oddjammers have wizened up to that gambit and it doesn’t really work anymore, but that would have been unimaginable in 2024.

Even now, people on Twitter are regularly posting $50k+ positions on the most random shit imaginable. Flup had a fucking million dollars on ANTHONY JOSHUA TO BEAT JAKE PAUL. That sentence would have melted your brain in 2021.

There are money-making opportunities on PMs that would never have been thought possible 18 months ago. This isn’t me trying to shill, but I do think if you commit your time to who is going to go to Taylor Swift’s wedding, you should be able to get in good quite easily.

SGPs Are Dead:

SGPs are like your uncle who told you in 2017 that if you learn to code you’ll be set for your whole life. I’m sure someone reading this who is still crushing SGPs is probably laughing at me, and I still do bet SGPs decently often, but the idea that SGPs are where you should focus is absolutely not the case anymore, in my opinion. DK will take nothing on an SGP with any under prop in it, and FD SGP prices are extremely difficult to beat. There are still some great spots, and SGPs remain solid for account health, but the truly nutty stuff is mostly dead.

A great example is the Mikal Bridges or Draymond Green games, and what would happen if those occurred today. Mikal Bridges a few years ago only played the 1Q, and Draymond Green checked out after one second because Klay Thompson was coming back. Today, you could maybe get a 5-1 or 6-1 parlay on those guys’ unders in SGPs. If it was very close to gametime, maybe you could do better on FD, but very few places are offering alt unders anymore. At the time, you could take Mikal Bridges under 11.5 points when his line was 25.5, parlay it with under 1.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds, and get a 100-1 bet easily. Those days are no longer here.

Market Efficiency:

Every year I try hard to reflect on how much more efficient the market has gotten in the last twelve months. When I started betting on NBA sides, each season lines would get much more efficient. Books used to miss very basic stuff about players resting on B2Bs, or a player being obviously in while listed questionable. I assumed that this trend would continue linearly until the market was just too efficient and I couldn’t win anymore. I’m sure that day will come, but it has been far from linear. I don’t think the NBA prop or side market is much more efficient in 2025 than it was in 2024. Once all the really low-hanging-fruit stuff got picked up, the rate at which the market gained efficiency became far slower, and I haven’t noticed much of a change in the past 24 months. The big exception being WNBA props, where I think ETR releasing projections made the market way more efficient from 2024 to 2025.

Overall, I think it’s a great time to be a winning bettor, and I don’t think I would have said that after any other year of my gambling journey. Naturally, that probably means that some unforeseen market force is about to come in and dry up my edge.

Good luck to everyone in 2026!

________________________________________

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Suuma's Takeaways from Week 17
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

The 49ers offense is a juggernaut

This offense is terrifying. If Pearsall stays healthy, San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC after the Rams. They’re layered, explosive, and ruthless once they find rhythm. Everything feels inevitable. However, they have the worst defense among all playoff teams.

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Bears: I’m warming up to Caleb (a bit)

I’m more on board than I was earlier. The highlight plays are becoming more frequent, and more importantly, he’s not making many mistakes. That said: Ben Johnson’s clock management at the end vs SF was horrific, and this still feels like a potential one-and-done playoff team. The defense is bad — the pass rush against the Niners looked preseason-level. Odunze is dealing with a stress fracture, Luther Burden got carted off with a quad (doesn’t seem serious), and the margin for error is thin.

________________________________________

Steelers are toast

You need extreme voodoo to win anything meaningful with this version of the Steelers. Nothing more to add.

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Stafford MVP discourse is weird to me… but

I’m wrapping my head around how Stafford can win MVP while the Rams are hovering around the 5-seed - or potentially land on the 6th seed. That said, it doesn’t matter what I think — it matters what the voters think. And right now, the market believes that the voters think Stafford deserves it (-250). Outside of raw volume stats, Maye has everything: division title, better seeding, EPA/play, and clearly more value relative to his supporting cast. I get him not playing the strongest schedule and not getting the 1st seed - with the Chargers most likely to rest starters in some capacity against Denver, the Pats will stick to the 2nd seed.

Still… I can absolutely see voters giving it to Stafford. He’s the favorite for a reason. The Rams are the best team. But Maye deserves it. And I know I might be irrational.

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Redraft: Shough and Ward go 1–2

If we’re redrafting today, Shough and Cam Ward go first and second. Shough has been incredible. Against the Titans, to quote Saints beat writer Nick Underhill: the Saints were missing WR2, WR3, RB1–RB3, RG, C, TE2 — and TE3 got hurt midgame. Didn’t matter. He’s now neck-and-neck with Tet McMillan in the OROY race (+110), sits at 5–3 as a starter, and could finish 6–3.

Forget the box score — watch him. Accuracy, pocket feel, aggression downfield, tight-window throws, real mobility. It looks like the Saints found their guy.

At the same time, Ward has shown enough freakish tape to still justify taking a QB early. The Titans coaching has been horrific, the environment awful — but Ward has made throws maybe five QBs in the league can make. Get him competent coaching and demand consistency. Also worth remembering who he’s throwing to: Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm, Chig Okonkwo, Van Jefferson. And his fired HC looked like the worst in football.

________________________________________

Texans: offense still a concern, but…

The offensive issues are still very real. The Texans caught the Chargers early, but after the second drive, they only managed to achieve two short field-goal-scores. Over the past three quarters, CJ Stroud completed five passes that actually gained positive yardage. That said, I actually like a Wild Card matchup vs Baltimore. The Ravens rank 30th in my pressure above expectation metric — that’s a matchup Houston can survive.

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Bills warning sign

If Josh Allen’s foot isn’t close to 100%, the Bills are cooked. The defense looked solid, but the Eagles offense was unserious and ultra-conservative again. Hurts had zero completions in the second half.

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Seahawks: offense could get them bounced

Seattle could be one-and-done if the offense doesn’t clean it up — unless they draw Carolina. You can’t live on 3–5 turnover-worthy plays per game in the playoffs.

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Bucs: it won’t happen, but they need a new HC

It won’t happen, but Bowles should be gone. He’s been carried by Baker and Coen for three years. The defense was never actually good. This collapse was exactly what people feared: lifeless, broken, done. 1–7 in their last eight, with the lone win a shaky one against the equally lifeless Cardinals. This team is finished.

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Bet note

Give me Panthers +3 / +3.5 next week (likely) without Jamel Dean and Haason Reddick.

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Rob and George's Early Leans for Week 18

Rob:
Cincinnati -7 (-115) vs. Cleveland

George:
Nothing

Both:
Carolina +3 vs. Tampa Bay
Tennessee/Jacksonville Over 45.5 (-115)
Philadelphia -7.5 vs. Washington

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 18 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 18
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal), WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Left Game), CB Kei'Trel Clark (Injured Inactive), S Budda Baker (Injured Inactive), S Kitan Crawford (Left Game)
Atlanta - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), DT Taven Bryan (Working back from I.R.)
Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), OT Spencer Brown (Blurry vision), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Left Game), S Jordan Poyer (Injured Inactive), K Matt Prater (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (Season over), DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive), LB Claudin Cherelus (Left Game), OG Robert Hunt (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), Olamide Zaccheaus (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Left Game), LB Noah Sewell (Season likely over)
Cincinnati - EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Left Game), OG Teven Jenkins (Left Game), CB Myles Harden (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - RB Javonte Williams (Left Game), WR Ryan Flournoy (Injured Inactive), TE Jake Ferguson (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Left Game)
Detroit - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Left Game), OT Taylor Decker (Injured Inactive), OG Trystan Colon (Injured Inactive), DT Alim McNeill (Left Game), LB Alex Anzalone (Left Game), CB/S Avonte Maddox (Left Game), S Thomas Harper (Injured Inactive), OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Injured Inactive), QB Malik Willis (Left Game), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Left Game), OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Hobbs (Left Game), CB Kamal Hadden (Season over)
Houston - OT Trent Brown (Injured Inactive), OT Aireontae Ersery (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - C Tanner Bortolini (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Season likely over), QB Anthony Richardson Sr. (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Injured Inactive), OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive), C Robert Hainsey (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Nnadi (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Season likely Over), OG Dylan Parham (Left Game), DT Adam Butler (Left Game), OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - RB Kimani Vidal (Injured Inactive), RB Hassan Haskins (Left Game), OT Jamaree Salyer (Injured Inactive), LB Denzel Perryman (Suspension Week 18), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive), S R.J. Mickens (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Miami - WR Jaylen Waddle (Banged Up), C Aaron Brewer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Chop Robinson (Left Game), LB Jordyn Brooks (Left Game), LB K.J. Britt (Left Game), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), RB Jordan Mason (Injured Inactive), TE T.J. Hockenson (Injured Inactive), OT Brian O'Neill (Injured Inactive), S Theo Jackson (Left Game)
New England - WR Kayshon Boutte (Injured Inactive), OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Harold Landry (Injured Inactive), NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive), DT Milton Williams (Working back from I.R.)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), TE Jack Stoll (Left Game), OG Cesar Ruiz (Injured Inactive), DT Bryan Bresee (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - TE Theo Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Injured Inactive), S Jevon Holland (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), RB Breece Hall (Left Game), RB Isaiah Davis (Left Game), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), CB Qwan'tez Stiggers (Left Game)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Injured Inactive), CB Michael Carter (Inactive/Personal)
Pittsburgh - WR D.K. Metcalf (Suspension Week 18), WR Calvin Austin III (Injured Inactive), TE Darnell Washington (Broken Arm), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), EDGE T.J. Watt (Injured Inactive), CB James Pierre (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - TE George Kittle (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Williams (Left Game), CB Renardo Green (Injured Inactive), CB Upton Stout (Left Game)
Seattle - WR Rashid Shaheed (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), S Coby Bryant (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - OT Tristan Wirfs (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Left Game), EDGE Anthony Nelson (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game), DT Calijah Kancey (Working back from I.R.)
Tennessee - WR Van Jefferson (Season over), EDGE Arden Key (Left Game), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Season over), EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Injured Inactive), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Laremy Tunsil (Injured Inactive), C Tyler Biadasz (Left Game), DT Daron Payne (Injured Inactive)


________________________________________
 

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Circa Million Superteam Update

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

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Injury Reports for Week 17 as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

Dallas at Washington (Thursday)
Dallas- WR Ryan Flournoy Questionable/2x DNP, OG Tyler Booker Questionable, DT Quinnen Williams Questionable, LB DeMarvion Overshown Out, CB Caelen Carson Questionable
Washington- QB Marcus Mariota Out, OT Laremy Tunsil Out, DT Daron Payne Out

Detroit at Minnesota (Thursday)
Detroit- RB David Montgomery Questionable, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Questionable, OT Taylor Decker Questionable, OG Christian Mahogany Questionable, OG Trystan Colon Questionable, EDGE Marcus Davenport Questionable, EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad Questionable, DT Alim McNeill Questionable, CB Amik Robertson Questionable, CB/S Avonte Maddox Out, OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Minnesota- QB J.J. McCarthy Out, RB Jordan Mason Out, TE T.J. Hockenson Out, OT Brian O'Neill Questionable, C Ryan Kelly Out

Denver at Kansas City (Thursday Nighter)
Denver- WR Pat Bryant Out, C Luke Wattenberg Out, LB Dre Greenlaw Out
Kansas City- OT Jaylon Moore Questionable/Full EDGE George Karlaftis Questionable DT Derrick Nnadi Questionable LB Nick Bolton Questionable

Houston at L.A. Chargers (Saturday)
Houston- OT Trent Brown DNP, OT Aireontae Ersery DNP, DT Sheldon Rankins Limited, DT Denico Autry DNP, LB Azeez Al-Shaair Limited, CB Derek Stingley Jr. Limited, CB Kamari Lassiter Limited
L.A. Chargers- RB Kimani Vidal DNP, WR Derius Davis DNP, OT Trey Pipkins Full, OT Jamaree Salyer DNP, OG Mekhi Becton Sr. Limited, EDGE Bud Dupree Limited, DT Teair Tart Limited, LB Denzel Perryman (Suspension 2 Weeks), CB Benjamin St-Juste DNP, S R.J. Mickens DNP

Baltimore at Green Bay (Saturday Nighter)
Baltimore- QB Lamar Jackson DNP, OG Andrew Vorhees Limited, CB Chidobe Awuzie Limited
Green Bay- QB Jordan Love Limited, QB Malik Willis DNP, RB Josh Jacobs Limited, TE Josh Whyle Limited, OT Zach Tom DNP, OG Aaron Banks Limited, OG Sean Rhyan Limited, S Evan Williams Limited

Tampa Bay at Miami
Tampa Bay- WR Chris Godwin Jr. Limited, OT Tristan Wirfs DNP, OT Luke Goedeke Limited, EDGE Anthony Nelson DNP, DT Calijah Kancey Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Miami- C Aaron Brewer DNP, DT Benito Jones Limited, LB Tyrel Dodson DNP, S Minkah Fitzpatrick DNP

New England at New York Jets
New England- RB TreVeyon Henderson Limited, WR Kayshon Boutte DNP, WR Mack Hollins DNP, WR DeMario Douglas Limited, OT Morgan Moses Limited, OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, OG Jared Wilson DNP, EDGE Harold Landry DNP, EDGE Anfernee Jennings Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga Out, LB Robert Spillane DNP, DT Milton Williams Limited (Working back from I.R.)
New York Jets- QB Tyrod Taylor Limited, TE Mason Taylor DNP, EDGE Will McDonald V DNP, DT Harrison Phillips Limited, DT Jay Tufele DNP, LB Francisco Mauigoa DNP

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh- RB Jaylen Warren Limited, WR D.K. Metcalf (Suspension 2 Weeks), WR Calvin Austin III DNP, OG Isaac Seumalo Limited, EDGE T.J. Watt Limited, EDGE Nick Herbig Limited, CB James Pierre Limited, CB Brandin Echols DNP
Cleveland- RB Dylan Sampson Limited, TE David Njoku DNP, OG Wyatt Teller Limited, OG Teven Jenkins Limited, DT Mason Graham Limited, LB Carson Schwesinger Limited, CB Denzel Ward Limited, CB Tyson Campbell Limited, CB Myles Harden Limited

Arizona at Cincinnati
Arizona- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Limited, OT Paris Johnson Jr. DNP, OG Evan Brown Personal DNP, C Hjalte Froholdt Limited, EDGE Josh Sweat DNP, CB Will Johnson Limited, CB Kei'Trel Clark DNP, CB Max Melton Limited, CB Darreb Hall Limited, S Budda Baker DNP, S Jalen Thompson Limited
Cincinnati- TE Noah Fant Limited, EDGE Joseph Ossai DNP, DT B.J. Hill DNP

New Orleans at Tennessee
New Orleans- RB Alvin Kamara DNP, OG Cesar Ruiz DNP, OL Asim Richards Full, DT Bryan Bresee Out
Tennessee- OG Kevin Zeitler Limited, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day Limited, LB Cedric Gray Full, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis Limited, EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville- RB Bhayshul Tuten Limited, OG Patrick Mekari DNP, OG Ezra Cleveland Limited, C Robert Hainsey DNP, CB Greg Newsome DNP, CB Jourdan Lewis DNP, CB Montaric Brown Limited
Indianapolis- OT Bernhard Raimann Limited, C Tanner Bortolini DNP, TE Drew Ogletree DNP, DT DeForest Buckner DNP, CB Sauce Gardner DNP, QB Anthony Richardson Sr. Limited (Working back from I.R.) 

Seattle at Carolina
Seattle- OT Charles Cross DNP, EDGE Derick Hall (Suspension 1 Week), S Coby Bryant Out 
Carolina- OT Ikem Ekwonu Full, DT Turk Wharton DNP, LB Trevin Wallace DNP, OG Robert Hunt Limited (Working back from I.R.)

New York Giants at Las Vegas
New York Giants- OT Andrew Thomas DNP, C John Michael Schmitz DNP, DT D.J. Davidson DNP, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches Limited, CB Cor’Dale Flott Limited, CB Deonte Banks Limited, S Tyler Nubin DNP
Las Vegas- OG Caleb Rogers Limited, EDGE Maxx Crosby DNP, OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Philadelphia at Buffalo
Philadelphia- OT Lane Johnson DNP, DT Jalen Carter Full, LB Nakobe Dean DNP
Buffalo- QB Josh Allen Limited, TE Dalton Kincaid DNP, TE Dawson Knox DNP, EDGE Joey Bosa DNP, DT DaQuan Jones DNP, DT Jordan Phillips DNP, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Taron Johnson Limited, S Jordan Poyer DNP, K Matt Prater DNP 

Chicago at San Francisco (Sunday Nighter)
Chicago- WR Rome Odunze DNP, WR Luther Burden III Limited, C Drew Dalman Limited, LB T.J. Edwards DNP, CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson Limited, S Kevin Byard III Limited
San Francisco- WR Ricky Pearsall Limited, TE George Kittle DNP, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos DNP, CB Renardo Green Limited

L.A. Rams at Atlanta (Monday Nighter)
L.A. Rams- WR Davante Adams, OG Kevin Dotson
Atlanta- CB Mike Hughes 
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) I like Canada to win the World Juniors at anything +money. This is shaping up to be their best roster in over a decade, with as many as eight top-10 picks. Every skater on the team except for one or two (depending on final roster) is a first-round pick. The vast majority were taken in the top 20. They have guys who will be left off the roster or play fourth-line minutes that would walk into the top-six for any other team at this tournament, and the same goes for the back end. They also have the right guy in charge to put it all together, in coach Dale Hunter. He’s a massive reason why I have so much confidence in this elite group realizing its potential.

Hunter’s resume speaks for itself. He’s coached Canada in this tournament once before, winning gold in 2020. In 14 seasons as London’s head coach he won five OHL championships and three Memorial Cups. He’s a massive upgrade on Dave Cameron who hasn’t had anywhere close to the same success in his long coaching career and who didn’t seem to have a clue at last year’s tournament. Hunter’s London teams are typically also loaded with talent, so this will be familiar territory for him. For Canada, the pieces to the puzzle are all there, it’s just about fitting them together properly. Hunter can do that. He’s got every tool he could want at his disposal, including the tournament’s best goalie tandem.

Goaltending has been a weak spot for Canada for close to a decade, but in Carter George and Jack Ivankovic it has become a strength for the team and gives them a huge edge over USA who will be without Trey Augustine for the first time in three years. Instead, the Americans will rely on 4th-round pick Nick Kempf (a sub-.900 SV% and 3.57 GAA for Notre Dame this season) and 7th-round pick Caleb Heil (struggling in the USHL), turning a strength into a weakness for the Americans.

That’s not all USA lost from last year’s gold-medal group. They will be without Zeev Buium, Ryan Leonard, Oliver Moore, and Gabe Perreault. All of those guys were top-25 picks, and some combination of that group had a hand in 12 of USA’s 15 goals in the knockout rounds last year. It’s a ton of talent to lose, especially when they’re not being adequately replaced. This year’s roster will include just one top-20 pick, leaving them dangerously short on high-end players as they host the tournament for the first time since 2018. The gap between Canada and USA is a lot bigger than that between USA and Sweden.

The Swedes are in the same group as the hosts and the two will play at 6pm ET on New Year’s Eve. I have a hard time imagining I won’t be backing Sweden in some capacity there. They are loaded up front with Anton Frondell (third overall), Viktor Eklund (16th overall), and Ivar Stenberg (2026 consensus top-three pick) leading a group that contains at least 10 top-60 picks. This is a strong, experienced group that will have its sights set on winning Group A and reaching the gold-medal game.

Finland’s hopes were dealt a blow when Buffalo decided not to let Konsta Helenius play, but they’re still a good team with an excellent goaltender in Petteri Rimpinen, who stole the show in 2025. Combine that with a lack of firepower, and I will be betting their unders at these high totals until they’re adjusted (if they ever are).

Slovakia could steal a spot on the podium on the back of their goaltending, as well, but they lack skill up front and return only six skaters from last year. They have no one who can replace Dalibor Dvorsky and Juraj Pekarcik, who combined for 16 points in 10 games at last year’s tournament.

Czech are without their would-be starting goalie Jakub Milota, leaving them vulnerable in goal. Combined with an exciting crop of forwards, and some strong play-drivers on the back end, there could be a lot of goals in this team.

Switzerland are built from the back with strong goaltending and a deep blue line, but there’s not a lot to love up front. Conversely, Germany should find success offensively and return two goalies (both NHL draft picks) from last year, but whoever starts in net will be busy as their defensive group leaves a lot to be desired.

Latvia have more high-end talent than ever before and should show respectably as a result, while Denmark are in tough and likely to be relegated.

Canada to win the tournament at + money is my favorite (favourite?) World Juniors bet, but here’s what I like from the first batch of games that’s been posted:

Sweden/Slovakia u7.5 +110
Denmark/Finland u7.5 -124
Germany/USA o7.5 -120
Czech/Canada o6.5 -105

2.) While we’re on the topic of international hockey, there’s no world in which Jordan Binnington should see the ice for Canada at the Olympics. Never mind whether or not he’s Canada’s best goalie… he’s not even the best Canadian goalie on his own team. Joel Hofer has slowly taken over as the Blues’ starter as Binnington continues to struggle immensely, ranking dead-last in the NHL in GSAA (-15.73) and GSAx (-13.12), and 38th out of 39 goalies (min. 14 starts) in both SV% (.870) and GAA (3.44). You know who the top-three goalies are in both SV% and GAA? I’ll give you a second to guess…

Scott Wedgewood, Logan Thompson, and Darcy Kuemper.

You know what all three of them have in common? They’re Canadian. So is Mackenzie Blackwood, who missed the start of the season with an injury and hasn’t reached the minimum 14 start cutoff as a result, but if we removed that he’d rank ahead of all three of those guys in SV% and second in GAA. Canada has options.

Binnington is currently -190 on Fanduel to start for Canada in their first game at the Olympics. He shouldn’t even be on the team, let alone see the ice. Logan Thompson is +145 and that’s a great bet (albeit the limits for this sort of market aren’t great). He’s the current Vezina frontrunner and has been Canada’s best goalie for close to two years now. Blackwood (35-1), Wedgewood (35-1), and Kuemper (75-1) are all decent bets as well. They’re miles better than laying -190 on a guy who almost certainly won’t see the ice in Milan and might not even make the team.

3.) Mentioned on Edge Work Overtime yesterday that I’d have thoughts on Craig Berube and the Leafs in the newsletter, but we ended up talking about it at length on the show, so I’ll keep this brief.

The fanbase is frustrated and divided over the Berube situation. Half of them blame Berube for the team’s miserable start and want him fired. The other half blame the players and don’t want to see them let off the hook. Well, both can be true, and in this case I think the right answer is somewhere in the middle. Berube isn’t a good coach, and he probably should be fired. This isn’t a great roster, but it’s not this bad either, and with a new voice they would be better. At the same time, this core has underachieved at every turn and consistently cowered in the face of adversity. It speaks volumes about the leadership group that they’ve completely checked out on Berube. Acting like it’s ok to quit on the coach because you don’t like him is crazy. We can’t normalize that, especially not for a group that has already done this before. There needs to be way more accountability in that room, and the players need to face the music. All of that remains true, but it also doesn’t negate the fact that Berube isn’t a good coach and the Leafs need to make a change behind the bench. They won’t, though, according to reports coming out of the organization, and it’s likely going to cost them their season. I don’t think this is a threatening team or even a particularly good one, but I do think they’d find a way into the playoffs in a congested Eastern Conference if Berube were fired tomorrow.

4.) I’ve said many times that I don’t believe the NHL market is truly efficient, and there’s been no shortage of examples to support that view this season. We got two great ones on Thursday (Dec 18) that I wanted to make a point of touching on here.

The Lightning hosted the Kings that night. Brandon Hagel was a game-time decision for Tampa, and we didn’t know who would start in net for Los Angeles on a back-to-back. Hagel was confirmed out by Cooper at 5:33pm. The market didn’t move. Forsberg was confirmed as the Kings’ starter over Copley at 6:34pm (a clear upgrade for them in net). The market didn’t move. About 10 minutes later, the Lightning got steamed to oblivion (-198 to -230 on Pinny) despite all the news breaking in favor of the Kings. The real kicker came a few minutes before puck drop when out of nowhere Nikita Kucherov was ruled out with an illness. There was NO buyback on the Kings. The market things nothing of Hagel, Kucherov, and the difference between Forsberg/Copley, apparently. I bet the Kings at +177 after the Hagel news, added more at virtually the same price after the Forsberg confirmation, and then… if you can believe it… added more at +205 after the Kucherov news. What are we even doing here?

On the same night, Artemi Panarin was a game-time decision for the Rangers. When the news broke in morning skate, the market didn’t budge. Despite the questionable tag, the Rangers took money throughout the afternoon. At 7:33pm, Panarin was ruled out. Guess what happened next? Nothing. The Blues finally took a little money before post, but not nearly enough.  

The. NHL. Market. Is. Not. Efficient.

5.) Injury roundup…

New injuries this week:

Leo Carlsson, ANA (Dec 22, day-to-day); Seth Jarvis, CAR (Dec 19, week-to-week); Jaccob Slavin, CAR (Dec 19, week-to-week); Zach Werenski, CBJ (Dec 22, day-to-day); Frank Nazar, CHI (Dec 20, four weeks); Tristan Jarry, EDM (Dec 18, two weeks); Mackie Samoskevich, FLA (Dec 22, “hopeful” to return for first game after break); Jake Evans, MTL (Dec 20, still awaiting a timeline); Jonathan Marchessault, NSH (Dec 17, day-to-day); Ilya Sorokin, NYI (day-to-day); JT Miller, NYR (Dec 20, week-to-week); Tyler Kleven, OTT (Dec 20, day-to-day); Timothy Liljegren, SJS (Dec 18, day-to-day); Brandon Montour, SEA (four weeks as of Dec 22); Vince Dunn, SEA (Dec 22, day-to-day); Karel Vejmelka, UTA (Dec 23, day-to-day); Rasmus Sandin, WSH (Dec 23, day-to-day);

Previously injured, could be back this week:

Nick Foligno, CHI (Nov 15, returning shortly after Christmas); Mathieu Olivier, CBJ (Nov 24, back at skate and nearing return); Kasperi Kapanen, EDM (Nov 29, “back around Christmas time”); Jake Walman, EDM (Nov 20, should be back soon); Darcy Kuemper, LAK (Dec 15, “nearing return” per Hiller); Kirby Dach, MTL (Nov 15, back soon after Christmas); Simon Nemec, NJD (Dec 12, “perhaps by end of calendar year”); Bo Horvat, NYI (Dec 11, practicing in non-contact as he nears return); Adam Fox, NYR (Nov 29, back at skate and nearing return); Shane Pinto, OTT (Dec 5, skating and “getting closer”); Evgeni Malkin, PIT (Dec 8, week-to-week); Jared McCann, SEA (Dec 11, could be back this week if he initial  three-week timeline); Brandon Hagel, TBL (Dec 15, day-to-day and likely back first game after break); Elias Pettersson, VAN (Dec 5, back first or second game after break); Jack Eichel, VGK (Dec 13, still day-to-day).

Still out:

Jason Zucker, BUF (Dec 8, week-to-week); Connor Bedard, CHI (Dec 12, to be re-evaluated in new year); Lian Bischel, DAL (Dec 1, 6-8 weeks); Tyler Seguin, DAL (Dec 3, 6-8 months); Matthew Tkachuk, FLA (trying to make it back for Jan 2 Winter Classic); Aleksander Barkov, FLA (Sep 25, 7-9 months); Dmitry Kulikov, FLA (Oct 9, five months); Patrik Laine, MTL (Oct 16, 3-4 months); Kaiden Guhle, MTL (Nov 14, 8-10 weeks); Alex Newhook, MTL (Nov 14, four months); Jonathan Kovacevic, NJD (yet to play this season, finally back skating); Evgenii Dadonov, NJD (Nov 26, still “aways away” as of Dec 16); Kyle Palmieri, NYI (Nov 28, 6-8 months); Alex Romanov, NYI (Nov 22, 5-6 months); Lars Eller, OTT (Dec 11, four weeks); Tyson Foerster, PHI (Dec 2, five months); Will Smith, SJS (Dec 13, week-to-week); Philipp Kurashev, SJS (Dec 13, week-to-week); Jaden Schwartz, SEA (Nov 28, six weeks); Jimmy Snuggerud, STL (Dec 1, minimum six weeks); Jordan Kyrou, STL (Dec 7, week-to-week, still not skating); Dylan Holloway, STL (Dec 14, at least six weeks); Erik Cernak, TB (Nov 22, still week-to-week as of Dec 5); Victor Hedman, TB (Dec 9, back early February before Olympics); Emil Lilleberg, TB (Dec 13, out “a few weeks” at least); Anthony Stolarz, TOR (Nov 11, looking for second opinion as he’s still not skating or making progress); Brandon Carlo, TOR (Nov 13, latest update is “another month” as of Dec 11); Logan Cooley, UTA (Dec 8, at least eight weeks); Filip Chytil, VAN (Oct 11, continues to skate but no timeline); Derek Forbort, VAN (Oct 11, still no clear timeline); Adin Hill, VGK (Oct 20, out “a few months”, targeting mid to late-January as of Dec 15); William Karlsson, VGK (Nov 8, still week-to-week as of Dec 15); Shea Theodore, VGK (Dec 13, week-to-week but “not a long one”); Pierre-Luc Dubois, WSH (Oct 31, 3-4 months).

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Suuma's Takeaways from Week 16
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

Houston, Do We Have a Problem?

Houston is rolling in the standings. Win streaks of 7–0, 8–1, and 10–2, back-to-back wins, and they’re essentially locked into the playoffs. There’s still a narrow path to the division if Jacksonville slips, but the more important question is how the Texans are playing heading into January.

The entire playoff thesis was simple: a conference-best defense paired with an offense that would get healthier and find rhythm at the right time. Over the past two weeks, that premise has taken a hit.

Houston faced a patchwork Cardinals offensive line with no run game, then a patchwork Raiders line with no run game — and both moved the ball. Arizona posted a 60% rushing success rate and hit several explosives through the air. Against Las Vegas, the Texans jumped out early thanks to a pick-six and still had to sweat as 14-point favorites. The Raiders ran poorly (30% rushing success) but threw the ball efficiently: 48% passing success rate and 0.09 EPA per dropback, even with the pick-six — an eight-EPA swing. Remove that interception, and Geno Smith averaged 0.4 EPA/play on his other dropbacks.

Meanwhile, the Texans offense offered very little. The run game was abysmal, and they needed late-down conversions through the air just to stay functional. These last two weeks are concerning for a team that will likely need its defense to carry an average offense through hostile road playoff environments.

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The Bears Are a Weird Case

Chicago has clinched a playoff spot and sits in prime position to win the NFC North — and yet every win feels like it comes from the football gods flipping a coin in their favor.

The Bears needed an absurd amount of fortune to beat Las Vegas, Washington, Cincinnati, the Giants, Minnesota, and now Green Bay. Against the Packers alone: a Josh Jacobs goal-line fumble, Green Bay scoring just six points on four trips inside the 10, a facemask on 3rd-and-20, and an onside kick recovery. Miraculous doesn’t even begin to cover it.

Trying to project this team forward is difficult. The run game is legitimately excellent, and the play caller deserves real credit - obviously. Caleb Williams delivers a handful of highlight throws every game. But the passing offense is not consistently good enough, the receivers keep dropping critical passes, and the defense feels massively overrated — living almost entirely off turnovers.

So what does it all mean? Honestly, it’s hard to say. The Bears keep winning, but it’s impossible to tell how much of this is substance and how much is sheer variance.

________________________________________


The Chargers Would Be AFC Favorites With Two Healthy Tackles

Parity defines the AFC playoff picture. It’s hard to remember a season where the entire field felt so tightly packed from top to bottom.

In an alternate reality, the Chargers might be the AFC favorite if they had both starting tackles — Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt — healthy. Instead, the offensive line has been a disaster, and things somehow got worse when Jamaree Salyer went down early against Dallas.

And yet, the Chargers are 11–4 and still alive in the division race. That’s because their quarterback is a cyborg, their defense is solid, and their head coach raises the floor every single week. In a crowded AFC bracket where margins are thin, the Chargers might quietly be one of the most underpriced teams going forward.

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The Giants Are the Walking Dead

It’s ugly in New York, and the illusion has completely worn off. Jaxson Dart might have fooled us with his prime-time performance against the Eagles — and with the swagger, and the optics next to Cam Skattebo — but the production hasn’t followed.

Since the Chicago game, the Giants haven’t moved the ball efficiently at all with Dart under center. He’s been wildly inaccurate, and the coaching staff has quietly stopped calling designed runs for him. Against Minnesota, Dart had zero net passing yards at halftime and finished 7-of-13 for 13 net passing yards. That’s not a typo.

The team looks lifeless. Structurally dead. Don’t be surprised if Ashton Jeanty manifests his draft status next week against this Giants team in what might as well be the “first overall pick bowl” in Las Vegas. The Raiders looked very much alive at Houston.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 17

Rob:
Las Vegas ML (+108) vs. NY Giants

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Denver -11.5 (-115) vs. Kansas City
Houston/LA Chargers Under 40.5
Cincinnati -6.5 (-115) vs. Arizona
Cleveland +5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
New Orleans/Tennessee Over 38.5

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 17 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 17
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal), C Hjalte Froholdt (Left Game), EDGE Josh Sweat (Left Game), DT Walter Nolen III (Season likely Over), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), CB Garrett Williams (Left Game), S Jalen Thompson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - CB Mike Hughes (Injured Inactive)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Left Game), OG Andrew Vorhees (Left Game), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Injured Inactive)
Buffalo - DT Jordan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Shaq Thompson (Left Game), K Matt Prater (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - OT Ikem Ekwonu (Injured Inactive), DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive), LB Trevin Wallace (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), WR Luther Burden III (Injured Inactive), CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Left Game)
Cincinnati - TE Noah Fant (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive), CB DJ Turner (Illness left game)
Cleveland - RB Quinshon Judkins (Season Over), RB Dylan Sampson (Injured Inactive), TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), OG Wyatt Teller (Injured Inactive), DT Mike Hall Jr. (Injured Inactive), CB Denzel Ward (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - WR Ryan Flournoy (Left Game), OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), DT Quinnen Williams (Injured Inactive), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Left Game), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive), S Donovan Wilson (Left Game)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Left Game), LB Justin Strnad (Injured Inactive)
Detroit - OG Trystan Colon (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), C Graham Glasgow (Injured Inactive), CB/S Avonte Maddox (Left Game), OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Left Game), QB Malik Willis (Banged Up), WR Romeo Doubs (Left Game), TE John FitzPatrick (Season Over), OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), S Evan Williams (Injured Inactive)
Houston - RB Woody Marks (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Brown (Left Game), OT Aireontae Ersery (Left Game), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Injured Inactive), OG Patrick Mekari (Left Game), CB Greg Newsome (Left Game)
Kansas City - QB Gardner Minshew (Season Over), WR Rashee Rice (Injured Inactive), WR Tyquan Thornton (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Nnadi (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - OG Caleb Rogers (Left Game), OT Kolton Miller (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - RB Kimani Vidal (Left Game), WR Derius Davis (Injured Inactive), OT Trey Pipkins (Injured Inactive), OT Jamaree Salyer (Left Game), EDGE Bud Dupree (Injured Inactive), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Left Game), S R.J. Mickens (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Left Game/Weeks)
Miami - S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Left Game), RB Jordan Mason (Left Game), C Ryan Kelly (Left Game), DT Javon Hargrave (Injured Inactive)
New England - RB TreVeyon Henderson (Left Game), WR Kayshon Boutte (Left Game), WR DeMario Douglas (Left Game), OT Thayer Munford Jr. (Left Game), NT Khyiris Tonga (Left Game), DT Joshua Farmer (Left Game), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), OG Cesar Ruiz (Injured Inactive), OL Asim Richards (Injured Inactive), DT Bryan Bresee (Left Game)
New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Left Game), C John Michael Schmitz (Left Game), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), DT Jay Tufele (Left Game), LB Francisco Mauigoa (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - WR D.K. Metcalf (Possible Suspension), WR Calvin Austin (Left Game), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), EDGE T.J. Watt (Injured Inactive), EDGE Nick Herbig (Injured Inactive), CB James Pierre (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Left Game)
San Francisco - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Seattle - OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), EDGE Derick Hall (Suspended 1 Game), CB Riq Woolen (Left Game), S Coby Bryant (Left game/Weeks)
Tampa Bay - EDGE Anthony Nelson (Left Game)
Tennessee - LB Cedric Gray (Injured Inactive), CB Marcus Harris (Left Game), EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Left Game), WR Jaylin Lane (Left Game/Likely out) OT Laremy Tunsil (Injured Inactive), OT Brandon Coleman (Left Game), OG Sam Cosmi (Left Game), DT Jer'Zhan Newton (Left Game)


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Circa Million Superteam Update

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

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Injury Reports for Week 16 as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

L.A. Rams at Seattle (Thursday Nighter)
L.A. Rams- WR Davante Adams Doubtful, DT Braden Fiske Questionable/3x DNP
Seattle- OT Charles Cross Out

Philadelphia at Washington (Saturday)
Philadelphia- OT Lane Johnson DNP, OT Fred Jackson DNP, OG Landon Dickerson DNP, DT Jalen Carter DNP
Washington- OT Laremy Tunsil Limited, LB Bobby Wagner Limited

Green Bay at Chicago (Saturday Nighter)
Green Bay- RB Josh Jacobs DNP, WR Christian Watson Limited, WR Dontayvion Wicks Limited, OT Zach Tom DNP, OT/OG Darian Kinnard Limited, EDGE Lukas Van Ness Limited, S Evan Williams Out, RB MarShawn Lloyd DNP (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago- RB D'Andre Swift Limited, WR Rome Odunze DNP, WR Luther Burden III DNP, TE Cole Kmet Limited, LB Tremaine Edmunds Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Buffalo at Cleveland
Buffalo- TE Dalton Kincaid DNP, LB Terrel Bernard Limited, CB Christian Benford Limited, K Matt Prater Out, WR Mecole Hardman Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Cleveland- RB Dylan Sampson DNP, TE David Njoku DNP, OT Jack Conklin DNP, OG Wyatt Teller Limited, OG Joel Bitonio DNP, OG Teven Jenkins DNP, OG Zak Zinter Limited, DT Mason Graham Limited, DT Adin Huntington Limited, LB Carson Schwesinger Limited, CB Denzel Ward DNP, S Grant Delpit Limited

L.A. Chargers at Dallas
L.A. Chargers- WR Quentin Johnston Limited, WR Tre' Harris Limited, WR Derius Davis DNP, OT Trey Pipkins Limited, EDGE Bud Dupree Limited, DT Teair Tart Limited, S R.J. Mickens DNP
Dallas- RB Javonte Williams Limited, OT Tyler Guyton DNP, OT Nate Thomas Full, DT Quinnen Williams DNP, CB DaRon Bland DNP, CB Caelen Carson Limited, CB Shavon Revel Limited, S Donovan Wilson Limited, FB Hunter Luepke DNP, CB Trevon Diggs Limited (Working back from I.R.)

New York Jets at New Orleans
New York Jets- QB Tyrod Taylor Limited, QB Justin Fields Limited, TE Mason Taylor Out, LB Francisco Mauigoa Out, S Tony Adams Out
New Orleans- RB Alvin Kamara DNP, RB Devin Neal Out, WR Devaughn Vele Out, OG Cesar Ruiz DNP, OL Asim Richards DNP, S Justin Reid Limited

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tampa Bay- WR Mike Evans Limited, TE Cade Otton Limited, LB Lavonte David DNP, LB SirVocea Dennis Full, S Tykee Smith Full
Carolina- WR Tetairoa McMillan DNP, OT Ikem Ekwonu DNP, OT Taylor Moton Limited, DT Turk Wharton DNP

Minnesota at New York Giants
Minnesota- WR Jalen Nailor Limited, OT Christian Darrisaw DNP, OT Brian O'Neill DNP, C Ryan Kelly DNP, DT Javon Hargrave DNP, S Josh Metellus (I.R.)
New York Giants- EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux DNP, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches DNP, CB Dru Phillips Limited, CB Art Green Limited (Working back from I.R)

Kansas City at Tennessee
Kansas City- WR Rashee Rice DNP, WR Tyquan Thornton DNP, OT Jawaan Taylor DNP, OT Jaylon Moore DNP, OG Trey Smith Full, DT Chris Jones Limited, LB Leo Chenal DNP, CB Trent McDuffie DNP
Tennessee- WR Van Jefferson DNP, OT Dan Moore Jr. Full, OG Kevin Zeitler DNP, LB Cedric Gray DNP, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis Limited, EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Cincinnati at Miami
Cincinnati- WR Tee Higgins Limited, TE Noah Fant DNP, TE Drew Sample Limited, DT B.J. Hill DNP, DT Kris Jenkins DNP, EDGE Joseph Ossai DNP, EDGE Shemar Stewart Full (Working back from I.R.)
Miami- DT Kenneth Grant Limited, LB Jordyn Brooks DNP, S Minkah Fitzpatrick Out, K Jason Sanders Limited

Jacksonville at Denver
Jacksonville- RB Bhayshul Tuten Out, OT Walker Little Full, OG Ezra Cleveland Limited, EDGE Josh-Hines Allen DNP
Denver- RB RJ Harvey Full, WR Pat Bryant Full, LB Justin Strnad DNP, OG Ben Powers Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Atlanta at Arizona
Atlanta- WR Drake London Limited, CB Mike Hughes Out
Arizona- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Limited, WR Xavier Weaver Limited, OT Paris Johnson Jr. Out, OG Evan Brown DNP/Personal, LB Cody Simon Limited, CB Max Melton DNP, S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson Limited, S Jalen Thompson Out

Las Vegas at Houston
Las Vegas- QB Geno Smith Full, WR Tyler Lockett Limited, IOL Jordan Meredith Full, EDGE Maxx Crosby DNP, S Jeremy Chinn DNP, OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Houston- RB Woody Marks DNP, RB Nick Chubb Limited, OT Trent Brown DNP, DT Sheldon Rankins DNP, DT Denico Autry DNP, LB Azeez Al-Shaair DNP, LB E.J. Speed DNP, CB Derek Stingley Jr. DNP, CB Kamari Lassiter DNP

Pittsburgh at Detroit
Pittsburgh- OT Andrus Peat Limited, OG Isaac Seumalo DNP, EDGE T.J. Watt DNP, EDGE Nick Herbig DNP, DT Derrick Harmon Full, CB James Pierre DNP
Detroit- OT Taylor Decker DNP, OT Giovanni Manu Limited, OG Kayode Awosika Full, OG Trystan Colon Limited, CB Amik Robertson Limited, S Kerby Joseph DNP, S Thomas Harper Full, OG Christian Mahogany Full (Working back from I.R.)

New England at Baltimore (Sunday Nighter)
New England- EDGE Harold Landry DNP, LB Robert Spillane DNP, CB Carlton Davis III DNP, CB Marcus Jones DNP
Baltimore- WR Rashod Bateman Full, OT Ronnie Stanley DNP, EDGE Kyle Van Noy DNP, LB Roquan Smith DNP, CB Chidobe Awuzie DNP

San Francisco at Indianapolis (Monday Nighter)
San Francisco- WR Ricky Pearsall, EDGE Sam Okuayinonu, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Tatum Bethune, LB Nick Martin, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Working back from I.R.)
Indianapolis- OT Bernhard Raimann, CB Sauce Gardner, DT DeForest Buckner (Working back from I.R.)

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FTN Stats Edge

If you want access to numbers like these and FAR more stuff, check out FTNFantasy.com and use HAMMER10 for 10% off.
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) Don’t have the time for a write-up this week as some stuff popped up unexpectedly, but I’ll be back with a full update next week before the break. I still wanted to post something quick that can offer some value, in addition to the injury update. So here are my top and bottom-10 teams in the NHL. These are my team ratings as of TONIGHT, which account for rosters as of this very second, factoring in current injuries. Think of it this way: if every NHL team played tonight at a neutral venue on equal rest, these ratings account for which teams would be favored over all the teams ranked below them in a hypothetical matchup. For the day-to-day players (Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brandon Hagel, Brandon Montour, Ryan McDonagh, Shea Theodore, etc) I am considering them as healthy for the sake of this exercise.

1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Carolina Hurricanes
4. Vegas Golden Knights
5. Dallas Stars
6. Edmonton Oilers
7. Washington Capitals
8. Florida Panthers
9. Minnesota Wild
10. Ottawa Senators
…
23. Philadelphia Flyers
24. Boston Bruins
25. Pittsburgh Penguins
26. Calgary Flames
27. Nashville Predators
28. Vancouver Canucks
29. St. Louis Blues
30. San Jose Sharks
31. Seattle Kraken
32. Chicago Blackhawks

2.) Now for the injuries. Another busy week on that front…

New injuries this week:

Viktor Arvidsson, BOS (Dec 11, day-to-day); Jason Zucker, BUF (Dec 8, week-to-week); Connor Bedard, CHI (Dec 12, to be re-evaluated in new year); Patrick Kane, DET (Dec 13, out until at least the weekend); Darcy Kuemper, LAK (Dec 15, placed on IR, no timeline given); Mats Zuccarello, MIN (Dec 9, placed on IR but is skating again); Jonas Brodin, MIN (Dec 11, placed on IR but considered day-to-day now); Marcus Johansson, MIN (day-to-day); Mike Matheson, MTL (day-to-day with UBI); Sam Montembault, MTL (conditioning stint in AHL following return from illness); Timo Meier, NJD (personal leave to attend family matter); Simon Nemec, NJD (Dec 12, out through Christmas break); Bo Horvat, NYI (Dec 11, week-to-week); Lars Eller, OTT (Dec 11, four weeks); Evgeni Malkin, PIT (Dec 8, week-to-week); Will Smith, SJS (Dec 13, at least a week); Philipp Kurashev, SJS (Dec 13, week-to-week); Jared McCann, SEA (Dec 11, left game with LBI and is now on IR); Brandon Montour, SEA (left Tuesday’s game and did not return); Dylan Holloway, STL (Dec 14, at least six weeks); Victor Hedman, TB (Dec 9, back early February before Olympics); Emil Lilleberg, TB (Dec 13, out “a few weeks” at least); Brandon Hagel, TBL (day-to-day, questionable for Thursday); Logan Cooley, UTA (Dec 8, at least eight weeks); Shea Theodore, VGK (day-to-day with UBI);

Previously injured, could be back this week:

Petr Mrazek, ANA (Dec 2, 2-3 week timeline so could be nearing return); Michael Kesselring, BUF (Nov 15, back at practice and return appears imminent); Nick Foligno, CHI (Nov 15, through initial four-week timeline and skating again in non-contact); Jake Walman, EDM (Nov 20, now on LTIR and earliest he’s eligible is Dec 18); Jack Roslovic, EDM (Nov 29, “back around Christmas”); Kirby Dach, MTL (Nov 15, through 4.5 weeks of his 4-6 week timeline); Brett Pesce, NJD (Oct 26, on track to return tonight); Thomas Chabot, OTT (Nov 22, won’t play Thursday but Saturday is possible); Ryan McDonagh, TB (Nov 8, game-time decision for Thursday vs. LAK); Andrei Vasilevskiy, TBL (Dec 2, skating today and a return Thursday vs. LAK is possible); Chris Tanev, TOR (Nov 1, skated in regular jersey on Monday as he nears return); Elias Pettersson, VAN (Dec 5, day-to-day now nearing return);

Still out:

Mathieu Olivier, CBJ (Nov 24, won’t be back before Christmas); Lian Bischel, DAL (Dec 1, 6-8 weeks); Tyler Seguin, DAL (Dec 3, 6-8 months); Kasperi Kapanen, EDM (Nov 29, “several weeks”); Matthew Tkachuk, FLA (trying to make it back for Jan 2 Winter Classic); Aleksander Barkov, FLA (Sep 25, 7-9 months); Dmitry Kulikov, FLA (Oct 9, five months); Patrik Laine, MTL (Oct 16, 3-4 months); Kaiden Guhle, MTL (Nov 14, 8-10 weeks); Alex Newhook, MTL (Nov 14, four months); Jonathan Kovacevic, NJD (out indefinitely, yet to play this season); Jack Hughes, NJD (Nov 14, eight weeks – “not close” was the update on Dec 16); Evgenii Dadonov, NJD (Nov 26, still “aways away” as of Dec 16); Kyle Palmieri, NYI (Nov 28, 6-8 months); Alex Romanov, NYI (Nov 22, 5-6 months); Adam Fox, NYR (Nov 29, week-to-week); Shane Pinto, OTT (Dec 5, out beyond Christmas break but has resumed skating); Tyson Foerster, PHI (Dec 2, five months); Matt Murray, SEA (Nov 18, six weeks); Jaden Schwartz, SEA (Nov 28, six weeks); Jimmy Snuggerud, STL (Dec 1, minimum six weeks); Alexey Toropchenko, STL (Dec 1, week-to-week); Jordan Kyrou, STL (Dec 7, week-to-week); Erik Cernak, TB (Nov 22, still week-to-week as of Dec 5); Anthony Stolarz, TOR (Nov 11, looking for second opinion as he’s still not skating or making progress); Brandon Carlo, TOR (Nov 13, latest update is “another month” as of Dec 11); Filip Chytil, VAN (Oct 11, continues to skate but no timeline); Derek Forbort, VAN (Oct 11, still no clear timeline); Adin Hill, VGK (Oct 20, out “a few months”, targeting mid to late-January as of Dec 15); William Karlsson, VGK (Nov 8, still week-to-week as of Dec 15); Pierre-Luc Dubois, WSH (Oct 31, 3-4 months); Ryan Leonard, WSH (Dec 6, 3-4 weeks).


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Suuma's Takeaways from Week 15
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

The Best Team in the NFC South Might Miss the Playoffs

With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back, Tampa Bay still has time to make a push over the final three weeks. But as things stand right now, there’s a real argument that Atlanta is the best team in the NFC South — and that team might still miss the postseason.

The Falcons’ 29–28 comeback win in Tampa tells the story. Down 28–14 early in the fourth quarter, Atlanta rallied — but the more important point is that it never should’ve come down to a walk-off field goal. The Falcons committed 19 penalties for 125 yards, the most in a single game in nine years. David Sills dropped a wide-open walk-in touchdown, turning that drive into zero points. A Bijan Robinson fumble directly led to a short-field Buccaneers touchdown. Tampa was fortunate to even be ahead.

When you look at the full body of work, the gap between these teams is razor thin. And with Kirk Cousins under center, there’s a strong case that Atlanta is currently the most complete team in the division — even if the standings don’t end up reflecting it.

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The Packers’ Season Is on Life Support

It’s hard to imagine a more disastrous afternoon for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. Green Bay blew a 23–14 lead in Denver, losing 34–26 — but the score was secondary to the damage. They lost four key players, each with uncertain timelines.

Micah Parsons tore his ACL. Evan Williams went down with a knee injury. Right tackle Zach Tom injured his knee. Christian Watson hurt his shoulder, with the severity still unknown. Watson has been an X-factor for an offense that already lost its best player earlier in the year in Tucker Kraft. His speed stretches defenses vertically and unlocks the rest of the passing game. Tom, meanwhile, is arguably their best offensive lineman.

But Parsons is the loss that breaks everything. He’s been on the field for 662 snaps this season, off for 177 — and the defensive splits are staggering. With Parsons on the field, the Packers rank 11th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate. Without him, they fall to 26th in both metrics. Context matters, but the conclusion is simple: he’s by far their most important defender and fundamentally alters how offenses have to play them.

Green Bay was already a middling run defense. Without Parsons, they’re now staring at the possibility of being bottom-12 against the pass as well. For a team with January ambitions, this might be the moment the season quietly ends.

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The Jaguars Are Getting Hot

Yes, the level of competition matters. Jacksonville’s last four games came against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets — not exactly an all-star lineup of defenses. But even accounting for that, the shift in how the Jaguars are playing offense since the bye is too dramatic to ignore. And it’s showing up cleanly in the numbers.

Before the bye, this passing offense was conservative, inaccurate, and inefficient. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t pushing the ball downfield, and when he did, the results weren’t there. The Jaguars’ pre-bye splits tell the story:

an aDOT of 8.14, a brutal –5.6% CPOE, just 0.009 EPA/play, and a 43.5% success rate. That’s a passing game stuck in neutral.

Post-bye, it’s a completely different operation. Lawrence is attacking vertically again and doing so with control. The aDOT has jumped to 9.33, CPOE has normalized to –0.5%, efficiency has spiked to 0.139 EPA/play, and the success rate has climbed to 51.6%, which ranks 4th in the league over that stretch. That’s not just improvement — that’s a different tier of offense.

Personnel has helped. The addition of Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange returning from IR have given Lawrence more answers, but the biggest change is confidence. Lawrence is trusting what he sees, throwing the ball downfield, and no longer playing scared of mistakes. The blowout of the 10–4 Chargers (35–6) backs it up, and even the Colts game looks stronger in hindsight after seeing what Lou Anarumo just did to Seattle.

You can discount some of the opponents, but you can’t discount this kind of profile shift. The Jaguars aren’t just winning — they’re winning with a passing offense that finally looks functional, aggressive, and dangerous heading into December.

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The Seahawks’ Offense Is Stumbling

The Seahawks have a problem: they cannot run the ball, and the passing game isn’t bailing them out the way it did earlier in the season. Since Week 10, Seattle’s offense ranks 18th in EPA/play despite sitting 6th in success rate. The efficiency is there on a snap-to-snap basis, but the explosives are gone.

Sam Darnold’s aDOT has dropped from 9.06 in Weeks 1–9 to 7.5, a clear signal that the downfield passing game has cooled. That was supposed to be Seattle’s elevator pitch — explosive throws through the air, even without a dominant run game. Without those chunk plays, the lack of a rushing floor becomes a real issue for a playoff run.

The trade for Rashid Shaheed hasn’t moved the needle yet. Thirteen catches for 178 yards isn’t nothing, but it’s also not stretching defenses the way Seattle hoped. Right now, the offense feels like it’s shrinking, not expanding — and that’s dangerous in December.

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Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Week 16

Rob:
New England ML +130 vs. Baltimore

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
LA Rams/Seattle Under 45.5
Buffalo/Cleveland Under 43.5
Jacksonville/Denver Over 44.5

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 16 Click Here:

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Injuries We are Watching for Week 16
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - RB Bam Knight (Left Game), WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Xavier Weaver (Injured Inactive), OT Paris Johnson Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal) LB Cody Simon (Left Game), CB Max Melton (Injured Inactive), S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Injured Inactive), S Jalen Thompson (Injured Inactive)
Atlanta - WR Drake London (Injured Inactive), CB Mike Hughes (Left Game)
Baltimore - WR Rashod Bateman (Injured Inactive), LB Teddye Buchanan (Season likely over), CB Chidobe Awuzie (Left Game)
Buffalo - LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Benford (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive)
Chicago - QB Caleb Williams (Banged Up), QB Tyson Bagent (Injured Inactive), WR Rome Odunze (Re-aggravated in Warm-ups), WR Luther Burden III (Left Game)
Cincinnati - WR Tee Higgins (Injured Inactive), TE Noah Fant (Left Game), OT Amarius Mims (Left Game), DT Kris Jenkins (Left Game), EDGE Shemar Stewart (Working back from I.R.)
Cleveland - RB Dylan Sampson (Injured Inactive), TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), OT Jack Conklin (Injured Inactive), OG Wyatt Teller (Injured Inactive), OG Zak Zinter (Injured Inactive), OG Teven Jenkins (Left Game), DT Adin Huntington (Injured Inactive), CB Denzel Ward (Injured Inactive), QB Deshaun Watson (Working back from I.R.)
Dallas - OT Tyler Guyton (Injured Inactive), OT Nate Thomas (Left Game), FB Hunter Luepke (Left Game), DT Quinnen Williams
(Left Game), CB Trevon Diggs (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - RB RJ Harvey (Left Game), WR Pat Bryant (Injured Inactive), WR Marvin Mims (Banged Up), S Brandon Jones (Left Game), LB Justin Strnad (Left Game), OG Ben Powers (Working back from I.R.)
Detroit - S Kerby Joseph (Injured Inactive), S Thomas Harper (Injured Inactive), OG Kayode Awosika (Injured Inactive), OG Christian Mahogany (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - WR Christian Watson (Left Game), WR Jayden Reed (Left Game), OT Zach Tom (Left Game), EDGE Micah Parsons (Likely Torn ACL), S Evan Williams (Left Game), RB MarShawn Lloyd (Working back from I.R.)
Houston - RB Woody Marks (Left Game), RB Nick Chubb (Injured Inactive), CB Derek Stingley Jr. (Left Game)
Indianapolis - OT Bernhard Raimann (Left Game), CB Sauce Gardner (Injured Inactive), DT DeForest Buckner (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Left Game), OT Walker Little (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - QB Patrick Mahomes (Season Over), WR Hollywood Brown (Inactive/Personal), OT Jawaan Taylor (Injured Inactive), OT Jaylon Moore (Left Game), OG Trey Smith (Injured Inactive), CB Trent McDuffie (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Injured Inactive), WR Tyler Lockett (Left Game), IOL Jordan Meredith (Injured Inactive), OT Kolton Miller (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - WR Quentin Johnston (Injured Inactive), WR Derius Davis (Injured Inactive), OT Trey Pipkins (Injured Inactive), S R.J. Mickens (Left Game)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Left Game)
Miami - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Minnesota - OT Christian Darrisaw (Injured Inactive), OT Brian O'Neill (Left Game), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Left Game), DT Javon Hargrave (Left Game), CB Isaiah Rodgers (Left Game)
New England - Nothing of note
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), RB Devin Neal (Left Game), WR Devaughn Vele (Left Game), OG Cesar Ruiz (Left Game), S Justin Reid (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Art Green (Working back from I.R)
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), QB Justin Fields (Injured Inactive), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), LB Francisco Mauigoa (Injured Inactive), CB Isaiah Oliver (Left Game), S Tony Adams (Left Game)
Philadelphia - RB Saquon Barkley (Banged Up), OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - TBD (Playing Tonight)
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Banged Up), EDGE Sam Okuayinonu (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Elliott (Hurt in Warm-ups), LB Tatum Bethune (Injured Inactive), LB Nick Martin (Injured Inactive), EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - Nothing of note
Tampa Bay - TE Cade Otton (Injured Inactive), LB SirVocea Dennis (Injured Inactive), CB Zyon McCollum (Left Game), S Tykee Smith (Injured Inactive)
Tennessee - WR Van Jefferson (Left Game), OT Dan Moore Jr. (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Zeitler (Left Game), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Injured Inactive), S Xavier Woods (Left Game), S Kevin Winston Jr. (Left Game), S Mike Brown (Left Game)
Washington - QB Jayden Daniels (Injured Inactive), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Injured Inactive), WR Noah Brown (Left Game), OT Laremy Tunsil (Banged Up), CB Jonathan Jones (Injured Inactive)

________________________________________
 

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It’s been a busy NBA season, so I haven’t written anything in a few weeks, but the NBA gods (schedule makers) gave a bit of a slower week for the NBA Cup. That break is always a great time to really dig into futures, which I have a tougher time doing in the grind of the day-to-day NBA with 11-game days and 6 back-to-backs. Today I’m going to write about futures markets I’ve bet recently or think could be interesting going forward.

NBA Champion

If you haven’t bet OKC to win the title yet, I believe you’re making a big mistake. I get it — it’s gross they’re -110 at FanDuel and it feels disgusting to bet a -110 in a futures market (there are better numbers elsewhere). If you have a smaller bankroll and this is really going to hurt you getting down and rolling it over, fine, I can see an argument. But otherwise, this is something you should bet.

I have the Thunder at 65% to win the title. That’s a 24% edge on a market you can get a significant amount down on. It’s pretty simple: this team is significantly better than any team I’ve ever recorded in my spread-rankings model. They’re 24-1 and are young, deep, and nearly impervious to injury. OKC was the #1 team ever in my spread rankings even before Jalen Williams was back. They’re easily the favourite if anyone other than Shai goes down, and even if Shai was injured, they’re likely only underdogs to a handful of teams. This could well be the best team ever, and getting them at plus odds or even a small minus is worth it.

I tweeted recently that we should just give OKC the title so we can see who comes second, and that’s very much how I feel about the NBA Finals market. The Thunder are going to have to steam to -150 or more for me to even start considering betting anyone else.

Eastern Conference Champion

I wrote before the season that I absolutely loved the Cavs to win the East. Unfortunately, the Cavs have been snakebit to start the year, and they have serious questions going forward. Specifically: can Darius Garland stay healthy or even find a version of himself similar to last year? This has really opened up the East. The Knicks are the current favourite, and I think deservingly so.

The team I was betting on some — and still think was good — is Orlando at +700 at FD. The Magic are a bit of a mystery. They started off the season rough, then really got rolling after Paolo got hurt, and now Franz is out for a month with a high ankle sprain. The good news for Orlando is the three of Franz, Suggs, and Bane are all at or exceeding expectations, and Anthony Black and even Tristan Da Silva have added solid depth. The worry is that Paolo might just not be that good. For years the excuses have been about Paolo’s offensive environment, but now even with far better teammates, things just seem so sticky and slow with Paolo on, and much more free-flowing with him off.

I still think at +700 the Magic are plus-EV. Even without Paolo, the Magic were being priced near the top of the East, and if Paolo can figure it out, they have the upside to be the best team in the conference.

My worry about this market is that teams are going to go on mini-runs, and I’m going to show some value on all top-six teams at some point or another. I think I’m going to need to show decently sized edges before pulling the trigger on any bet here.

Sixth Man of the Year

This is the most frustrating award market I can remember. The favourite in this market is Jaime Jaquez. Since the Heat have gotten healthy, he’s been averaging 22 mpg; without more injuries, Jaquez is a very unlikely winner.

The second favourite is now Anthony Black, who’s starting for Franz, averaging only 13 ppg and won’t be in this team’s closing lineup when they’re healthy — again, a pretty unlikely winner. Third is Reed Sheppard. At one point it seemed like he might be the clear favourite, but he’s had a really rough stretch, I’m not sure Ime trusts him, and he’ll be cut down some when Tari and maybe Dorian Finney-Smith come back. Reed’s stats just aren’t really there either; he’s also only averaging 13 ppg.

I can keep going down the list discussing why the top guys aren’t going to win, but… who the hell is? Normally in a market where the top guys are overpriced, there’s awesome opportunity, but I have not been able to find it. I think Quentin Grimes or Naz Reid maybe have a little bit of value, but nothing great. Onyeka probably would have been walking into this award if Kristaps was healthy, but he’s now totally dead.

It’s a very weird market, and I think the winner maybe hasn’t emerged yet. This has the makings of some RORTs, but I don’t believe anyone is that yet.

Most Valuable Player

Similar to OKC, Shai is a gross but very, very good bet here. Shai just seems wildly underappreciated in the NBA media/Twitter world. He’s averaging 32.6 ppg on 69% TS while playing on the league’s best defense and maybe the greatest team ever.

It’s now a two-horse race between Jokic and Shai, with the rest of the field maybe holding 1–2% of the equity — and that’s pretty much only Luka. But Shai should quite clearly be minus odds here. Team wins always have a significant effect on the MVP race, and OKC is currently +235 to break the NBA all-time wins record and -270 to have 70+ wins. Considering how ridiculous Shai’s numbers are, Jokic is just going to have a tough time competing with how large the win gap is going to be between them.

I think Jokic is very live in this market, and is somewhere between 30-40% to win, but that still easily makes Shai good at +130.


________________________________________

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Circa Million Superteam Update

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

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Injury Reports for Week 15 as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (Thursday Nighter)
Atlanta- WR Drake London Out, TE Kyle Pitts Questionable, EDGE Jalon Walker Questionable, DT David Onyemata Questionable, DT Brandon Dorlus Questionable
Tampa Bay- TE Cade Otton Doubtful, LB SirVocea Dennis Out, S Tykee Smith Doubtful, WR Mike Evans Questionable (Working back from I.R.), WR Jalen McMillan Questionable (Working back from I.R.)

Washington at New York Giants
Washington- QB Jayden Daniels Out, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. DNP, LB Bobby Wagner DNP, CB Jonathan Jones DNP
New York Giants- EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux DNP, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches DNP, TE Theo Johnson Limited, OG Greg Van Roten DNP, CB Art Green Full (Working back from I.R), LB Darius Muasau Full (Working back from I.R.)

Las Vegas at Philadelphia
Las Vegas- QB Geno Smith DNP, WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. Limited, TE Michael Mayer Limited, TE Ian Thomas DNP, EDGE Maxx Crosby DNP, S Jeremy Chinn DNP, OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Philadelphia- OT Lane Johnson DNP, DT Jalen Carter DNP, OG Landon Dickerson Limited     

Cleveland at Chicago
Cleveland- OT Jack Conklin DNP, OG Wyatt Teller Out, OG Joel Bitonio DNP, RB Dylan Sampson DNP, WR Cedric Tillman DNP, TE David Njoku DNP, DT Mason Graham DNP, EDGE Adin Huntington DNP, LB Carson Schwesinger Limited, CB Denzel Ward DNP, CB Tyson Campbell Limited, S Grant Delpit DNP, QB Deshaun Watson Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Chicago- WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR Olimade Zaccheaus Limited, CB Kyler Gordon DNP, CB Tyrique Stevenson Limited, LB Ruben Hyppolite II Full

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Baltimore- RB Keaton Mitchell Limited, CB Chidobe Awuzie DNP, CB Nate Higgins Limited, EDGE Tavius Robinson Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Cincinnati- WR Tee Higgins Limited, EDGE Shemar Stewart Full (Working back from I.R.)

Arizona at Houston
Arizona- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. DNP, WR Xavier Weaver DNP, RB Emari Demercado Limited, OT Paris Johnson Jr. Out, OG Evan Brown DNP/Personal, DT Walter Nolen Limited, DT Bilal Nichols DNP, CB Max Melton Limited, S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson DNP, S Jalen Thompson DNP
Houston- RB Nick Chubb DNP, RB Woody Marks DNP, OT Trent Brown DNP, LB Azeez Al-Shaair DNP, CB Kamari Lassiter DNP

Buffalo at New England 
Buffalo- OT Spencer Brown Limited, WR Josh Palmer Limited, EDGE Joey Bosa Limited, LB Terrel Bernard Limited
New England- OT Vederian Lowe Limited, OG Jared Wilson Full, RB Terrell Jennings DNP, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, DT Khyiris Tonga Full

New York Jets at Jacksonville
New York Jets- QB Tyrod Taylor DNP, QB Justin Fields DNP, RB Breece Hall DNP, TE Mason Taylor DNP, LB Quincy Williams DNP, LB Francisco Mauigoa DNP, CB Azareye'h Thomas DNP, S Tony Adams Full
Jacksonville- QB Trevor Lawrence Limited, WR Parker Washington Limited, OT Walker Little Limited, OG Ezra Cleveland Limited, S Andrew Wingard Limited

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City
L.A. Chargers- QB Justin Herbert Limited, WR Ladd McConkey Limited, OT Trey Pipkins DNP, LB Troy Dye DNP
Kansas City- OG Trey Smith Full, OT Jawaan Taylor DNP, CB Trent McDuffie Limited

Indianapolis at Seattle
Indianapolis- QB Riley Leonard Full, OT Braden Smith DNP, CB Sauce Gardner DNP, EDGE Tyquan Lewis DNP, DT DeForest Buckner Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle- TE Elijah Arroyo DNP, DT Jarran Reed Limited, S Julian Love Limited, S Ty Okada Limited, C Jalen Sundell Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Tennessee at San Francisco
Tennessee- C Lloyd Cushenberry III Limited, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis Limited
San Francisco- EDGE Sam Okuayinonu DNP, LB Tatum Bethune DNP, LB Nick Martin DNP, K Eddy Pineiro Full, FB Kyle Juszczyk Limited

Green Bay at Denver
Green Bay- RB Josh Jacbos DNP, WR Jayden Reed Limited, WR Matthew Golden Limited, WR Dontayvion Wicks Limited, OT Zach Tom Limited, EDGE Lukas Van Ness Limited, EDGE Kingsley Enagbare Limited, S Javon Bullard Limited, RB MarShawn Lloyd Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
Denver- DT D.J. Jones Full, OG Ben Powers Limited (Working back from I.R.)        

Carolina at New Orleans
Carolina- CB Jaycee Horn Limited, LB Christian Rozeboom Full, LB Claudin Cherelus Limited, C Cade Mays Full
New Orleans- RB Alvin Kamara DNP, RB Devin Neal Limited, OT Taliese Fuaga DNP, OT Asim Richards DNP, S Justin Reid DNP

Detroit at L.A. Rams
Detroit- S Kerby Joseph Limited, S Thomas Harper Limited, WR Kalif Raymond Limited, TE Shane Zylstra Limited, OT Taylor Decker DNP, OG Kayode Awosika Limited, OG Christian Mahogany Limited (Working back from I.R.) 
L.A. Rams- WR Davante Adams DNP, EDGE Byron Young Limited, CB Darious Williams Full, WR Tutu Atwell Full (Working back from I.R.)    

Minnesota at Dallas (Sunday Nighter)
Minnesota- RB Aaron Jones Sr. Limited, WR Jordan Addison Limited, TE T.J. Hockenson DNP, OT Christian Darrisaw DNP, OG Donovan Jackson Limited, S Theo Jackson Limited
Dallas- WR CeeDee Lamb Limited, OT Tyler Guyton DNP, TE Jake Fergusson Limited, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney Limited, S Donovan Wilson Limited, FB Hunter Luepke Limited, CB Trevon Diggs Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Miami at Pittsburgh (Monday Nighter)
Miami- RB De'Von Achane, LB Tyrel Dodson
Pittsburgh- TE Darnell Washington, OT Calvin Anderson Out, OT Andrus Peat, DT Derrick Harmon, S Kyle Dugger

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Player Props to Watch – ATL @ TB (TNF)

This week gives us our first real look at Tampa Bay’s passing offence with Mike Evans potentially returning after a six-game absence and all three of Evans, Chris Godwin, and Emeka Egbuka active together. Any time a high-volume receiver returns to a lineup, books have to reprice target distribution — and that creates opportunity before markets settle.

Right now, the prop board shows fragmentation across the entire WR group. Godwin’s receiving yards sit between 39.5 and 43.5, with sharp books leaning lower while slower books like Draftkings hanging mid-40s numbers. Egbuka’s line shows a similar split, ranging from 43.5 to 48.5, with sharper books again shading over while recreational books deal lower yardage. That spread alone tells you the market hasn’t agreed on what Evans’ return does to secondary target volume.

Meanwhile, Mike Evans’ props are the most volatile of the group. His receiving yards range from 43.5 to 49.5, and his receptions market is being priced more cautiously, suggesting books are uncertain whether he walks back into a full snap share or a rotational role. But his touchdown market — +150 to +200 — shows they expect endzone targets for the big-bodied WR.

This is the kind of uncertainty that creates value: three receivers fighting for volume in a restructured offence, with books disagreeing on who loses work and by how much. When the sharper operators cluster on one side of the board, and everyone else lags behind, that’s where the edge typically lies. Keep track of the injury report leading into this one, as lines will shift once game statuses become clear. 

Hammer readers can get priority access to demo the Props Screen here: Betstamp.com/hammer 

Lines subject to change. Knowing which books move first can be the difference between finding value — and chasing it. 

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FTN Stats Edge

If you want access to numbers like these and FAR more stuff, check out FTNFantasy.com and use HAMMER10 for 10% off.
 

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Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Martin St. Louis, Kent Hughes, and Jeff Gorton watched on Tuesday as Jakub Dobes allowed three goals on Tampa’s first 12 shots, then proceeded to watch Sam Montembault let in three goals on the first 10 shots he faced in relief. It came two nights after Dobes allowed three goals on the Blues’ first six shots in a game the Canadiens dominated before another disastrous goaltending effort took the wind out of their sails. It’s been a theme for the Habs all season. Montembault has been unable to find the form that saw him rank fifth among all NHL goalies in goals saved above expected over the last three seasons combined (behind Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, Linus Ullmark, and Igor Shesterkin). He’s posted a minus-7.1 GSAx this season in 15 appearances, which, coupled with Dobes’ hot start – 10.28 goals saved above expected in his first five starts – saw him surrender the starting job. It hasn’t been a smooth passing of the torch, however, as Dobes has posted a minus-8.81 GSAx in 12 appearances since, culminating in a miserable two-game stretch this week. It was the last straw for the Habs brass who, before the team could even get their equipment off following Tuesday’s 6-1 loss to Tampa, called up top goaltending prospect Jacob Fowler.

I wouldn’t call it a panicked move, but it does come out of an abundance of frustration and desperation. This is a hockey team that has managed to fight and claw to remain in the thick of the playoff picture despite miserable goaltending. The players deserve better and that’s what management is trying to provide. Fowler is an elite goaltending prospect – the consensus top goalie prospect in the league – but expecting immediate success in the NHL at the ripe age of 21 (he just celebrated his 21st birthday two weeks ago) will likely leave the Canadiens disappointed.

If he starts on Thursday in Pittsburgh, Fowler will be 21 years and 17 days old. Here’s how that compares to other recent highly regarded goaltending prospects in their NHL debuts (excluding KHL goalies who obviously were later arrivals):

-Spencer Knight (20 years, 1 day)
-Carter Hart (20 years, 4 months, 5 days)
-Yaroslav Askarov (20 years, 6 months, 27 days)
-Jacob Fowler (21 years, 17 days)
-Jesper Wallstedt (21 years, 1 month, 27 days)
-Lukas Dostal (21 years, 6 months, 18 days)
-Dustin Wolf (21 years, 11 months, 27 days)
-Mackenzie Blackwood (22 years, 9 days)
-Jake Oettinger (22 years, 1 month, 10 days)
-Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (22 years, 1 month, 14 days)
-Thatcher Demko (22 years, 3 months, 23 days)

Of the goalies to debut before or around their 21st birthday, none of them really stuck. Knight, also out of Boston College, arrived straight to the NHL from the NCAA, playing four games at the end of the 2020-21 season. He settled into a backup role the following year with mediocre results, though did play a handful of AHL games in each of the next two seasons. Hart was a bit of a unicorn who never looked back after bursting onto the scene in 2018. He posted strong results in his first two seasons but hit a wall in year three before getting injured. Wallstedt and Askarov were used sparingly, appearing in just five and three games respectively in their first wo seasons, largely remaining in the AHL after their initial callups. Of all the names on the above list, none of them truly found success in their first tastes of NHL action:

Fowler will likely experience similar results, but that’s fine – he’s barely 21 and has just 18 games of pro experience. The Canadiens need to be patient. Almost all of these guys are now knocking on the door of the elite tier of NHL goalies, and Fowler’s early AHL numbers, albeit in a small 18-game sample, are better than everyone on the list. His career NCAA save percentage dwarfs that of Demko, Oettinger, Knight, and Jeremy Swayman. His potential is tantalizing, but he’s very likely not the answer for the Habs just yet.

The answer now is the same as it was at the start of the season: Montembault.

As miserable as he was to start the season – a minus-7.64 GSAx in his first six starts – he’s weathered the worst of the storm. In eight starts since, he’s posted a 1.74 GSAx. Great? No. Respectable? Yes. The reason he hasn’t taken back the reigns is he’s been too erratic. In those eight starts he’s been pulled twice, but he’s also posted two “steals”. It’s also not anything he hasn’t been through before. Early last season he went through a nine-start stretch where he went 1-8 with a minus-8.67 GSAx. They didn’t have another option to turn to with Cayden Primeau virtually unplayable as a backup, so they let Monty ride it out. In fact, they leaned on him even harder. He started the next six games and went 3-2-1 with a 2.9 GSAx. Modest numbers, but he got back on track and went on to finish third in the NHL with a 31.2 GSAx. Water always finds its level. The Canadiens getting so shaken this time around speaks to the growing expectations in the building, but these things can’t be rushed. They got to this point by staying the course – this isn’t the time to deviate.

I believe one of the biggest reasons he hasn’t been able to get fully back on track is they simply haven’t afforded him the opportunity. He’s started just seven of their last 17 games. It’s hard to get into any sort of rhythm when you’re playing so sparingly. He needs to be afforded the runway to get that confidence back. I don’t think Montembault is anything special, but he’s a lot better than he’s shown this season and you don’t put up the numbers he has over the past three years by accident. The Habs play 10 games between now and 2026 – he should start eight of them. Let Fowler play the back-to-backs, if the goal is to give Dobes a rest following the busiest stretch of his NHL career. If you afford Montembault that opportunity and he doesn’t deliver, you have your answer. Sure, you run the risk of him stumbling through it and falling out of the playoff picture, but it’s not like the alternatives offer any guarantees. 

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