Round Two Mock Draft

By: George Tsilfidis, Director of Marketing for The Hammer Betting Network

33 – San Francisco - S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - Toledo
-Very good player that fell to Round 2 like many other safeties who ended up being very productive in the NFL. Huge area of need and fits the same mould as Nick Emmanwori who Seattle used to ride on their Super Bowl run.

34 – Kansas City (Trade) - WR Denzel Boston - Washington
-Incredible fortune for the Chiefs to still see Boston on the board here. They spent their first two picks on the defensive side of the ball and now get a big bodied physical receiver to pair with the speedy Xavier Worthy and slot merchant Rashee Rice. Also gives them an off ramp if they don’t want to pay Rice who can’t seem to stay out of trouble

35 – Buffalo - DT Kayden McDonald - Ohio State
-Buffalo was 31^st in defensive Rush EPA last year and desperately needs to improve the middle of their defense. Kayden McDonald goes a long way into helping that and gives them a potential replacement for Ed Oliver before his next big pay day. 

36 – Las Vegas - OG Chase Bisontis - Texas A&M
-They have a new QB now in Fernando Mendoza and they need to improve their O-line immediately. It would also help to get Ashton Jeanty in a position to succeed. 

37 – New York Giants - LB Jacob Rodriguez - Texas Tech
-The New York Giants ultimately passed on Sonny Styles at pick five. Jacob Rodriguez in the middle of this defense would help improve an awful run defense last year.

38 – Houston - CB Jermod McCoy - Tennessee
-Houston is in the fortunate position of having no glaring needs. They can take a player who is way too talented to be sitting here in round two. And yet they can be afford to be patient while he recovers from his injuries. It also gives them a potential #2 corner beside Stingley if they opt not to pay Kamari Lassiter top corner money when he’s up for a new deal. In the meantime a potential trio of Stingley, Lassiter and McCoy is quite scary.

39 – Cleveland - CB Colton Hood - Tennessee
-Corner is a sneaky need for Cleveland who doesn’t have a third corner right now. Plus Denzel Ward is expensive and constantly has concussion issues. Hood is a really good look for Cleveland here.

40 – Arizona (Trade) - EDGE T.J. Parker - Clemson
-While they need to improve their O-line, there are no right tackles they could draft here right now. They may have to circle back in round 3 for a Markel Bell. In the meantime, they still need another passrusher and to improve a defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year.

41 – Cincinnati - CB Avieon Terrell - Clemson
-Cincinnati could go many directions here. They could use another interior O-lineman. Linebacker is also a big need. But Avieon Terrell’s talent might be too much to pass on. He was once viewed as a first round corner who had very bad measurables dropping him to the 2^nd round. And yet when you watch him, he’s fluid, flips his hips well and is a good corner. 

42 – New Orleans - EDGE Zion Young - Missouri
-The Saints were 20^th in the league in pressure rate and need to improve in 2026. Drafting an edge rusher might go a long way in improving that.

43 – Miami - WR Germie Bernard - Alabama
-Miami opted not to take a Wide Receiver in Round 1, instead focusing on the trenches and secondary. They still need to give new QB Malik Willis a weapon. Germie Bernard has a chance to be his top weapon immediately.

44 – New York Jets - CB D'Angelo Ponds - Indiana
-The Jets made three 1^st round picks last night. They added an edge rusher, and two offensive weapons. They still have a giant need at corner where they were brutal last year. D’Angelo Ponds has some of the best tape at corner despite his small stature. 

45 – Baltimore - EDGE R Mason Thomas - Oklahoma
-Baltimore probably was really tempted to take a Edge Rusher Reuben Bain Jr. yesterday when he unexpectedly fell to 14. Instead they stuck to their guns and drafted some O-line help for Lamar Jackson. They come back and take the really talented R Mason Thomas in round two to pair with Trey Hendrickson.

46 – Tampa Bay - LB CJ Allen - Georgia
-The Lavonte David era in Tampa Bay is over. It’s time to re-think their defense. While people question CJ Allen’s athleticism, he gets marks for leadership and calling the defensive plays on the field. Between Reuben Bain Jr. and CJ Allen the Bucs have a chance to bring their defense back to a top level with one draft.

47 – Indianapolis - CB/S Treydan Stukes - Arizona
-The Colts could consider Wide Receiver here as well as Defensive tackle to eventually replace DeForest Buckner and his neck. Safety also is a gigantic need, and Treydan Stukes is an incredible player. His only knock really is his age.

48 – Atlanta - CB Keionte Scott - Miami
-Atlanta has a giant need at Corner. A.J. Terrell has quietly not been the same player the last couple years and behind him they’re very thin. Keionte Scott has a chance to be an immediate starter in the secondary, to pair with a young passrush that was quite good last year.

49 – Minnesota - EDGE Cashius Howell - Texas A&M
-Cashius Howell had the unfortunate distinction of being the shortest arms measured on an edge rusher in 25 years. He is uber talented though, and if one Defensive coordinator can get the most out of him it’s Brian Flores. They are also likely moving Jonathan Greenard at some point after the draft, so they need to have a replacement ready.

50 – Detroit - EDGE Gabe Jacas - Illinois
-The Lions have been looking for an Edge Rusher opposite of Aidan Hutchinson for years. They take a swing on one in the 2^nd round of this draft.

51 -  Carolina - DT Christen Miller - Georgia
-I really like the player and the fit here. The Panthers signed Turk Wharton to play beside Derrick Brown last year, but not only could he not stay healthy, when he played he wasn’t very good. The Panthers signed Edge Rusher Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to improve the defense this offseason. They also were 27^th in defensive rush EPA last year and Christen Miller is very good against the run. This is an excellent pick for the Panthers

52 – Green Bay - CB Brandon Cisse - South Carolina
-Nate Hobbs didn’t work out for the Packers, which leads them to need corner help again this offseason. Brandon Cisse fits both the age and RAS profile that the Packers covet. 

53 – Pittsburgh - WR Chris Bell - Louisville
-The story of Round one might have been the Steelers being on the phone with Makai Lemon before the Eagles traded in front of them and stole him. They get a very good back-up option in round two. Chris Bell was not afraid to catch passes in traffic. He’s also 6”3 and has great speed. He may not be ready right away because of his recovery from his torn ACL, but he could be the steal of the draft at Wide Receiver.

54 – Philadelphia - OT Caleb Tiernan - Northwestern
-Caleb Tiernan played both Right and Left Tackle in college. The Eagles could value that versatility as an immediate back-up and potential long term replacement for Lane Johnson if he retires next year. He also can play some guard in the meantime so the Eagles can get their five best O-lineman on the field.

55 – L.A. Chargers - OG Emmanuel Pregnon - Oregon
-This would be an excellent pick and fit for the Chargers offense who needs to improve an O-line that was very bad last year. With Offensive Tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back this year, plus their acquisition of Center Tyler Biadasz, this could become a strength of the team this season.

56 – Jacksonville - LB Anthony Hill Jr. - Texas
-There has been some smoke about Jacksonville drafting a Runningback but I’m not sure I buy it. Liam Coen really talked up Chris Rodriguez Jr. when they signed him, and they drafted Bhayshul Tuten last year. What they haven’t done is replace Devin Lloyd who they lost this offseason. Anthony Hill Jr. fills that need.

57 – Chicago - DT Lee Hunter - Texas Tech
-Chicago opted to take a safety in Round 1 last night but they still have needs on the D-line. Lee Hunter joins a defense that was 27^th in Defensive rush success rate last year.

58 – San Francisco - OG/OT Gennings Dunker - Iowa
-I really thought the 49ers would draft Caleb Lomu in the first round last night but they didn’t. In this mock draft I had them passing on guard again at pick 33. Think they finally take one and re-fortify an O-line that has been getting older and thinner.

59 – Houston - RB Mike Washington Jr. - Arkansas
-Houston has already taken a guard and I gave them Jermod McCoy with their earlier pick. They traded for runningback David Montgomery and they still have Woody Marks. However Montgomery is going to be 29 heading into the season and Marks is more of a change of pace back. Mike Washington Jr. gives them a potential gamebreaker in the backfield. 

60 – Chicago - WR Malachi Fields - Notre Dame
-Chicago may have a sneaky need at Wide Receiver. They let go of D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze is so inconsistent. They have Luther Burden and Colston Loveland who can live over the middle, but Malachi Fields gives them a legit weapon on the outside. 

61 – L.A. Rams - WR Antonio Williams - Clemson
-There was a lot of smoke connecting Wide Receiver Makai Lemon and the Rams yesterday. Ultimately they went with a Quarterback, but this time they come back and get the slot weapon in Antonio Williams. 

62 – Denver - LB Jake Golday - Cincinnati
-Denver has needs at Linebacker after letting Dre Greenlaw go. Jake Golday has a chance to be an immediate starter in the middle of a good defense. They may also be tempted to go with a tight end here to give more weapons to Quarterback Bo Nix.

63 – New England - TE Eli Stowers - Vanderbilt
-A sneaky good pick here to the New England Patriots. They have spent the off-season giving Drake Maye all the tools to succeed. They signed offensive guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and drafted Caleb Lomu last night. They also signed Wide Receiver Romeo Doubs and will be trading for A.J. Brown post June 1^st . They could easily use this pick on the defense, but giving Maye another weapon at tight end could be very tempting, especially if it leads to a top 3 offense next year. 

64 – Seattle - EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton - Penn State
-This pick reminds me so much of EDGE Rusher Boye Mafe who they lost in free agency this off-season. Both tested off the charts. Mafe had a 9.94 Ras Score. Dennis-Sutton has a 9.96. This feels like such a great fit as a replacement. 

________________________________________
 

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

My Favorite Day 2/3 Prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft

By: George Tsilfidis, Director of Marketing for The Hammer Betting Network

Let me start with a small caveat. Some teams prefer to use mid-round picks on players with safer profiles—productive college performers who can fill a role and make the roster right away. That approach has its merits.

I tend to lean the other way.

When evaluating Day 2 and early Day 3 prospects, I’m chasing ceiling outcomes. I’m looking for rare athletes or players whose draft stock has slipped due to injury or circumstance—guys who, in the right environment, could significantly outperform their draft position.

Below are a few prospects who fit that mold. I’ll walk through what stands out, the upside, and what could hold them back.

RB Mike Washington Jr.

A week before the Combine, I was recording with Rob Pizzola and we got into a discussion about who might emerge as the second running back off the board behind Jeremiyah Love. At the time, Love was practically a lock for RB1.

The name I brought up was Mike Washington Jr.—a player sitting in the mid-100s on consensus boards.

The reasoning was simple: I had heard he was going to test extremely well, and his physical profile suggested he could generate serious buzz. I predicted a 4.4 40-yard dash.

He significantly beat that.

Washington Jr. ran a 4.33, and from that moment on, his stock took off. His speed score—a combination of size and speed— is off the charts.

He’s not without flaws. His pass protection needs work, and he’s not yet a complete back. But his rare blend of size and explosiveness is exactly the type of profile worth betting on in the middle rounds.

Landing spots like Seattle or Baltimore are particularly intriguing. In Baltimore, he could be the heir apparent to Derrick Henry—a big physical running back with game-breaking ability.

WR Chris Bell

This wide receiver class comes with its share of uncertainty, particularly when trying to identify true WR1 ceilings. That’s part of why Chris Bell stands out.

Bell is coming off a torn ACL, and we didn’t get testing numbers from the Combine or his pro day. There’s a real chance his rookie season starts slowly as he works his way back.

Still, players with his combination of size and run-after-catch ability rarely fall to Day 2.

What stands out most on film is his fearlessness over the middle. He’s willing to absorb contact and consistently works in high-traffic areas. That kind of toughness, paired with his physical tools, suggests he could develop into a true all-around receiver.

There are questions about the breadth of his route tree, but those limitations feel more tied to what his college coaches asked of him, rather than his actual capability.

When I think of his upside, I like the idea of a Chris Bell on Day 2 a lot more than I like the idea of a Denzel Boston in Round 1. And if Bell ends up in the right situation like in Philadelphia or Kansas City, he could be the steal of the draft at WR.

LB/S Kyle Louis

Let’s start with the concern: Kyle Louis may not have a natural position.

He’s undersized for a traditional linebacker role and doesn’t cleanly project as a full-time safety. That “tweener” label can push players down boards.

But in today’s NFL, that kind of versatility can also be an asset.

Louis is an explosive, high-energy athlete who flies around the field and can pressure the quarterback. He plays like he's shot out of a cannon. Used creatively, he could carve out a valuable role in a modern defense.

The ideal deployment looks something like a hybrid role: a big nickel defender who can blitz off the edge, contribute against the run, and match up with tight ends or running backs on passing downs.

Athletically, he checks a lot of boxes—agility, vertical explosion, and range. Even if he doesn’t fit neatly into one position, defensive coordinators will see the appeal of having a chess piece like Louis.

Dane Brugler also wrote about his character and leadership, and he’s the kind of player who could easily outperform a Day 2 or early Day 3 draft slot.

CB Ephesians Prysock

I’ll admit it—I’m a sucker for Day 3 cornerbacks with elite athletic traits and size.

We’ve seen this story before. In the Tariq Woolen and Zyon McCollum draft, both players entered the league as raw, but highly athletic prospects and developed into productive starters. They were both guys I was banging the table for.

Ephesians Prysock fits the same archetype.

At 6’3” with long arms and a 4.45 forty-yard dash, he has the physical profile teams covet. He’s shown the ability to play both man and zone, which only adds to his appeal in versatile defensive schemes.

The main area for growth is his ball production—turning pass breakups into interceptions. But some of that might just be variance or luck, especially when the physical tools are already in place.

For a player likely to be available on Day 3, Prysock offers exactly the kind of upside worth betting on.

Final Thoughts

Mid-round picks are where philosophies diverge. Some teams prioritize floor. Others take calculated risks on traits and upside.

I’ll take the swing.

Players like Washington Jr., Bell, Louis, and Prysock may come with questions, but they also bring the kind of physical tools and developmental potential that can reshape a draft class if things break right.


________________________________________
 

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.

You Can’t Win Without Great Goaltending… Until You Can

By: Rob Pizzola, CEO of The Hammer Betting Network

A note before you read
Writing is not my thing. I find it time intensive and honestly not something I enjoy. So I use AI to help me put these articles together. The ideas, the methodology, the data pulls, and the analytical framework are entirely my own. My typical process is to work through the analysis, record voice notes explaining what I want to convey, and then use AI to shape those into a readable piece. I go over everything afterward to make sure the substance is accurate and up to my standard. I think being upfront about that process is important.

Every spring the same phrase gets recycled in hockey circles across North America. You hear it so often that it stops sounding like a claim and starts sounding like a fact. You can’t win the Stanley Cup without great goaltending. The problem is not with the statement itself. The problem is with how it gets used when people are trying to pick playoff winners and price playoff series.

When analysts invoke goaltending as a predictive tool, they are almost always pointing at what a goalie did during the regular season. What nine full years of playoff data shows is that this connection is essentially imaginary. Regular season goaltending performance has almost no predictive relationship with how far a team advances in the playoffs, and betting as though it does is a consistent way to land on the wrong side of the market. (You may be wondering why I chose nine full years as it might seem like an arbitrary number. I have tested all sorts of time periods and the underlying analysis does not change significantly. I think going back further than a decade could be problematic as we would be running analysis on a game that was substantially different than the game that is played today.)

The metric worth understanding here is Goals Saved Above Expected, or GSAx. This is not the same thing as Goals Saved Above Average, or GSAA. GSAx measures how a goalie performs relative to what an expected goals model predicts given the actual quality of the shots he faces. Every shot gets assigned a probability of going in based on its location, type, and distance. GSAx measures how many fewer goals a goalie allowed than that model would have predicted. A high GSAx means a goalie is personally outperforming shot quality expectations. The correlation between a goalie’s GSAx and his team’s possession metrics in this dataset is essentially zero, which means elite numbers show up freely on both strong and weak teams.

The question that matters for betting is whether a goalie who outperformed shot quality models during the regular season can be expected to keep outperforming them in the playoffs. Nine years and 144 goalie seasons give a clear answer. The correlation between regular season GSAx and playoff round reached is negative 0.089, with a p-value of 0.29. That does not come close to statistical significance. If you don’t have a stats background or this goes over your head for any reason, the TLDR is this: The team with the better regular season GSAx goalie wins a first-round series 49 percent of the time. That is a coin flip.

My view on why this happens comes down to a few things. First, there is straightforward mean reversion. Extreme outperformance in any environment that mixes skill and randomness tends to pull back toward average in subsequent periods. A goalie posting a GSAx dramatically above his historical baseline is almost certainly getting some contribution from variance, shots finding him in favorable spots, bounces going the right way. That variance does not carry forward. Among playoff goalies in this dataset, those who posted a GSAx above 15 in a given season dropped by an average of 15.3 the following year.

Second, the playoff environment is fundamentally different. Shot selection becomes more deliberate, opposition quality jumps across the board, and every team has spent days (or even weeks) preparing specifically for each goalie they will face. The expected goals bar gets raised just as the goalie is most likely to regress toward it.

Third, and this one is underappreciated, goaltending variance across a seven-game series is enormous. A goalie can face 200 shots in a series and the randomness in how those shots bounce off posts, pads, and crossbars can completely override whatever the underlying numbers say about him. Eight of the nine highest regular season GSAx performances in nine years of data were followed by playoff runs where the goalie ran cold or barely broke even against expected goals.

The sharpest evidence comes from tracking the goalies who posted the highest regular season GSAx numbers and watching what happened once the playoffs started.

Ilya Sorokin posted plus 51.4 GSAx for the Islanders in 2022/23, the highest single season mark in the entire dataset. He ran essentially even against expected goals in the playoffs and New York lost in the first round. Sergei Bobrovsky posted plus 45.1 for Columbus in 2016/17 and his team ran cold. Linus Ullmark posted plus 38.2 for Boston in 2022/23 and was bounced in the first round. Connor Hellebuyck has appeared on this list three separate times and his teams ran cold against expected goals in every single one.

But here is the question Alex Moretto raised when reviewing a draft of this piece, and it is a fair one. We have shown that elite regular season goaltending does not predict playoff success. But does the opposite hold? Are teams with weak regular season goalies at a systematic disadvantage?

The answer is also no, and in some ways the data on this side is even more interesting.
 

Goalies who ranked in the bottom third by regular season GSAx advanced past the first round 49 percent of the time. Goalies in the top third advanced past the first round 51 percent of the time. Those numbers are not statistically different from each other. The bottom-third goalies also ran slightly hotter on average against expected goals in the playoffs, posting a positive luck differential of plus 1.5 compared to minus 0.7 for the top third group.

Pekka Rinne posted a GSAx of minus 24.8 for Nashville in 2015/16, the worst mark in the entire dataset, and his team advanced to the second round. Andrei Vasilevskiy posted minus 16.7 for Tampa Bay in 2017/18 and reached the conference finals. Martin Jones posted minus 17.1 for San Jose in 2018/19 and also reached the conference finals. The team with the worst regular season goaltending in this entire nine year dataset (both goalies combined) was a conference finalist. There is simply no systematic penalty for coming into the playoffs with a goalie who struggled during the regular season, just as there is no reliable reward for coming in with one who excelled.

The implication is symmetrical and important for betting. Do not pay a premium for teams with elite regular season goalies. But also do not fade teams simply because their goalie has been below average. The regular season number is close to noise in both directions once the playoffs begin.

The Cup winners over this same period make the same point, and two of the most instructive cases involve goalies who were not even the anticipated starter heading into the postseason.

*Binnington was called up in January 2019 with only 32 regular season games before becoming the playoff starter. ** Logan Thompson started the regular season for Vegas but was injured prior to the 2022/23 playoffs. Adin Hill and Laurent Brossoit carried the playoff workload.

Jordan Binnington came up in January 2019 with St. Louis on the verge of a historic collapse. He played 32 regular season games, posted a respectable but unspectacular GSAx of plus 8.8, and then got hot at exactly the right time and carried his team to a Stanley Cup. Nobody predicted it because there was essentially no basis to predict it. Vegas in 2022/23 takes the unpredictability argument even further. Logan Thompson was the regular season starter before he was injured. Adin Hill stepped in and was outstanding. Two backup goalies nobody was building a betting case around ended up central to why that team won the Cup.

With that full picture in place, here are the updated regular season goaltending numbers for the 2026 playoff field. Worth noting that this year has an unusually murky set of starter situations, which itself reinforces the central argument.

** Uncertain starter situation. Wedgewood and Blackwood are close to 50/50 in Colorado. Hart expected to start for Vegas. Forsberg has outperformed Kuemper significantly and could start for LA. Ingram is the likely Game 1 starter for Edmonton. Bussi and Andersen are close to 50/50 in Carolina. Skinner and Silovs splitting time in Pittsburgh.

Jeremy Swayman has posted a GSAx of plus 52.3, the highest single season mark in the nine year dataset. It is a remarkable number and it may inflate Boston in series betting. Their underlying shot quality metrics against playoff caliber opponents rank among the weakest in the bracket, meaning the Bruins have been heavily dependent on this level of outperformance all season. That is precisely the situation the data says is most likely to reverse. The goalie who ends up being the story of these playoffs is probably not the one sitting at the top of the rankings right now. 

The practical takeaway is straightforward. Do not pay a premium for regular season goaltending in either direction. Do not fade teams with modest GSAx numbers. The regular season number tells you how much a goalie outperformed shot quality models over roughly 50 games. It does not tell you what he is going to do in a seven-game series, and this year in particular it may not even tell you who is going to be playing. What does predict playoff advancement with far more consistency is the quality of shots a team generates and allows at even strength, particularly against other playoff caliber teams. Build your framework around that.

The conventional wisdom says you need great goaltending to win the Stanley Cup. Nine years of data make clear that you almost never see it coming.

Rob Pizzola is the CEO of The Hammer Betting Network and a professional sports bettor. All statistical data sourced from Evolving Hockey. GSAx measures goals saved above expected, adjusting for the shot quality a goalie faced. Analysis covers all 144 playoff team seasons from 2014/15 through 2024/25.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL

By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

Into the final four weeks of the season, we still have a lot to figure out. Top seed in the Eastern Conference is up for grabs. Races for the Atlantic, Central, and Pacific Divisions are intensifying. There are five teams fighting for one playoff spot in the West, and seven teams fighting for five spots in the East. I feel pretty strongly about who winds up in those playoff spots and I don’t think the market is pricing all the teams involved properly.

A few bets for your Wednesday, courtesy of FanDuel:

Boston Bruins to miss the playoffs -110

There are better prices out there as well if you shop around (plus-money widely available). Of the teams still vying for a playoff spot in the East, the Bruins are unquestionably one of the two worst. They’re likely the worst, and they don’t have the benefit of playing in a weak Metro Division like the Penguins, Islanders, and Blue Jackets, where third place in the division might very well finish the season with less points than the second wild card.

Not only are the Bruins my lowest power-rated team of this group, but they also have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the entire NHL. Of their final 14 games, eight of them are on the road, nine of them are against playoff teams, and none of them are against teams in the league’s clear-cut bottom five. That’s bad news for a group that has been terrible both on the road and against good teams all year. They’re 25-9-1 at home vs. 12-14-7 on the road, and even more importantly, they’ve managed just a 43.2% expected goal share against playoff teams this season, compared to a 50.7% mark against non-playoff teams. That 43.2% share is the sort of figure you’d expect from a lottery team. It’s dreadful and it’s hard to see them doing enough down the stretch to stay in this race. I have them at right around 40% to make the playoffs and you can bet the no at + money in some spots. Seems like good value to me.

Los Angeles Kings to make the playoffs -140

Unlike the Bruins, the -140 on the Kings to make the playoffs at FanDuel is best in market. If you’ve been tuning into Edge Work this season you’ll know the Kings have been a polarizing team on the show. I’ve long been in their corner, while So Money has jumped at every opportunity to disparage this group. At one point I lost faith, myself. But then Jim Hiller was fired. They’re just 4-3-1 since then, but their play has been extremely encouraging. The schedule has been tough – six of those eight games came against teams in a playoff spot on points percentage – and they’ve still managed a 55.9% expected goal share at five-on-five. If you remove the Avs game (their first without Hiller the day after the firing before any real changes had a chance to be instilled) they’ve posted a 59.2% expected goal share and 54.4% Corsi share at five-on-five. The wins are coming, and they’re coming soon when you consider that the Kings have the league’s easiest remaining schedule. Of their remaining 15 games, 11 are against non-playoff teams, nine of them are against teams in the bottom nine in the league in points percentage, and FIVE OF THEM are against the two worst teams in the NHL (3 vs. Canucks, 2 vs. Flames).

As good as things appear to be mapped out for the Kings, this has as much to do with them as it does the teams they’re competing with. The Kraken suck, the Predators suck, and the Sharks aren’t good enough.

Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference +1800

Rick Bowness took over as head coach the Jackets are 16-2-4 with strong underlying numbers – fourth in the NHL in both expected goal share and shots for percentage at five-on-five. They have a legitimate number one goalie in Jet Greaves, and Bowness seems to finally be giving him the reins again after leaning more on Elvis Merzlikins early in his tenure. Greaves currently ranks fifth in GSAA and third in GSAx among goalies on teams currently occupying a playoff spot. They are considerable favorites to finish top three in the Metro Division which will provide them with a much easier first-round matchup, before a likely date with a very vulnerable Hurricanes team in the second round.

I really like how the Jackets match up with Carolina. They’re a lot bigger than the Canes up front, have excellent center depth to help with line matching, have great skaters on the back end to help neutralize the Canes’ forecheck, and possess a considerable edge in net. It’s as good a path to the Conference Finals as one could ask for in a loaded Eastern Conference for a well-constructed roster that’s playing it’s best hockey at the most important time of year. This number is simply too big and while you can find a lot better than the 18-1 currently offered at FanDuel, I’m still content buying all the way down to 15-1.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Unlock the NEW Betstamp PRO Live Screen for March Madness.
Track live main markets and props across 200+ sportsbooks with sub-second latency and Betstamp’s proprietary True Line to identify off-market edges in real time. See the entire market move as the action unfolds. Test the Live Screen today.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

NFL Matchmaker - Connecting Seven Free Agents to new Teams

By: George Tsilfidis, Host of Forward Progress


Malik Willis (Arizona Cardinals):

First of all, kudos to Packers Head Coach Matt LaFleur who completely changed the trajectory of Malik Willis career. Willis looks like a completely different, more polished player than he was in Tennessee, albeit in a limited sample size. Connecting the dots here. Of all the teams linked to Malik Willis, the Cardinals are the closest to being a contender while also having money available. The fact that Mike LaFleur's brother Matt was coaching Malik Willis gives him the inside edge as well. He'll have an endorsement he trusts from Brother Matt in knowing how good Willis is, but also for Malik, having the familiarity of a LaFleur brother that he can trust with the next stage of his career. 

Kyler Murray (Minnesota Vikings):

The Vikings are getting bailed out in a big way here. Former GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah didn't leave the Vikings in good financial shape. They also were seemingly stuck to a QB that may not be a franchise guy. They couldn't afford to take a big swing at another QB that could improve their roster. That's why having the opportunity to sign an arguably Top 15 Quarterback for the league minimum is such a windfall. It's a no-brainer for them, and frankly it's the best spot for Kyler Murray. Murray arrives on a team that already has a Superstar Wide Receiver in Justin Jefferson, bookend Offensive Tackles. Plus a HC who has the reputation of being a QB whisperer. This makes too much sense for all parties involved and gives Kyler his best shot at playing his way into another big contract next off-season.

RB Kenneth Walker III (Kansas City Chiefs):

There's too much smoke this off-season about the Kansas City Chiefs being in the market for a Runningback. The Chiefs have tried re-tread Runningbacks and cheap options over the years to manufacture a run game. It hasn't worked, and from everything we're reading, the Chiefs are planning to fix that in a big way. I remember the Superbowl against the Bucs where the Chiefs OL looked so bad, that in the off-season they overcorrected to fix the problem. Bringing in Joe Thuney, Orlando Brown Jr. and then drafting Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith in the draft. Well it feels like they will over correct the problem once again, by bringing in the best available RB on the market. Even if it comes with a big price tag.

RB Travis Etienne Jr. (New Orleans Saints):

The New Orleans Saints have an exciting young QB in Tyler Shough and a #1 WR in Chris Olave. Outside of that, they don't have a trusty #2 WR or a consistent run game. A big splash like Etienne makes a ton of sense here especially because he can also provide in the pass game. It's time to move on from Kamara, and Etienne would allow them to not force an early pick on a RB like Jeremiyah Love, who may not even be on the board when they pick in the 1st round. I still think they take a 3rd or 4th round RB to supplement Etienne as well.

RB Tyler Allgeier (Denver Broncos):

Sean Payton loves to the run ball. He often loved having a dynamic duo in New Orleans. Since arriving to Denver he has been trying to find a duo he trusts. He tried with JK Dobbins but now coming off another injury, I don't think he brings him back. He likes RJ Harvey but more as a change of pace not a lead back. Tyler Allgeier makes a ton of a sense. Young, doesn't have too much tread on the tires since he played behind Bijan Robinson, and in his one year as the lead back racked up over 1,000 yards as a rookie RB. Would also help them tremendously at the goalline.

WR Alec Pierce (New England Patriots):

If we believe some of the off-season chatter, Alec Pierce market will be expensive, and the Patriots aren't willing to get to that pricetag. Maybe I'm being naive, but the 30 million a year stuff sounds silly. Ultimately New England makes a ton of sense, has a need and should be looking to maximize their window while Drake Maye is the best contract in the league. I would have penciled the Titans in here since they have the means, familiarity and need. But the Wan'Dale Robinson stuff scares me with Brian Daboll there. And ultimately both of them may be overpaid.

WR Mike Evans (Baltimore Ravens):

It feels like this has been the Ravens M.O for 25 years. Going out and grabbing veteran receivers. Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Deandre Hopkins. They made a major splash to go get Maxx Crosby which is a huge help on defense. It also feels like Jesse Minter in his first year will be looking to draft defensive players so that he can mold the defense to his liking. Signing Mike Evans would be enough to help the offense take a leap next year, and he would give them a different kind of WR than Zay Flowers. For Mike Evans, it gives him a real shot to win another title at the end of his career.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Unlock your 14 Day Free Trial to Betstamp PRO
Compare odds across 200+ global odds sources and benchmark every bet against our proprietary True Line, built using historical pricing data from the sharpest books in the market. Test the screen today. 
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: A Team-By-Team Trade Deadline Primer

By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network


Anaheim Ducks

It’s still a year too early for the Ducks, but with the Pacific Division suddenly wide open, they should be weaponizing their wealth of cap space to take a couple swings at improving the roster for a potential run to the conference finals. They have the best goalie in the division and over $50 million in deadline cap space. Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlson, Pavel Mintyukov, and Owen Zellweger are all due for big raises this summer – Ryan Poehling, too, if they opt to keep him – but they still have a ton of wiggle room. An experienced blue liner and bottom-six winger should be the primary targets, but with Jacob Trouba and Radko Gudas on expiring deals I’d love to see them package one of Pavel Mintyukov or Olen Zellweger as part of a bigger deal to acquire a legit partner for Jackson LaCombe… someone like MacKenzie Weegar or Brett Pesce.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins have been linked to a number of guys and seem committed to bolstering their roster ahead of the deadline, but I think their best course of action is to do nothing. At most I’d make a small move to add a middle-six winger where I’m only giving up a middling pick. If they can add a guy with term who fits into their plans beyond this season then it’s a different conversation, but those are the types of deals they can wait to make until summer. They aren’t close to good enough to beat a Tampa or Carolina in the first round and there’s no one out there they can realistically add to this team in the next couple days to change that. They are well-positioned to get back to being competitive in the next few years and they don’t have any reason to sacrifice that just to win an extra game, at best, in the first round.

Buffalo Sabres

The franchise desperately needed this run and for the first time in ages it’s an exciting time to be a Sabres fan. Because of that, I can’t really fault them for keeping Alex Tuch as their own rental at the risk of losing him for nothing this summer, even if that is typically very bad practice. I’d still try and explore a hockey trade where you get assets that still help you this season for Tuch, but those are generally easier to make in the summer – only they won’t have much leverage then as he’ll be on the cusp of free agency. If I were Jarmo Kekalainen my priority would be a right defenseman and an experienced bottom-six forward, in that order. Could they pry Zach Whitecloud out of Calgary? I don’t know how realistic trading within the division is, but a Scott Laughton and Brandon Carlo package from Toronto is pretty much exactly what they need.

On the Robert Thomas rumors, that would be a terrifying proposition for the rest of the Eastern Conference. They have the picks and young NHL talent to pull it off comfortably, and it would be a true home run for Kekalainen. Running three of Thomas, Tage Thompson, Josh Norris, and Ryan McLeod down the middle is some nasty work. They would be a legitimate threat in the East for years to come.

Carolina Hurricanes

We know Eric Tulsky isn’t afraid to take swings, so how about Robert Thomas here? The Canes need another legitimate center to get over the hump, and have both the assets and cap space to pull a deal off with St. Louis. I like Logan Stankoven but he’s won 44% of his draws and is best suited to play on the wing. Jordan Staal is their only reliable faceoff guy and you ideally don’t want him out there taking offensive zone draws late in games when you need a goal. I also wonder about Nazem Kadri and Ryan O’Reilly here. The bottom line is they can put an attractive package together for anyone out there on the market, and they absolutely need an upgrade at 2C if they are going to have a chance to finally get over the hump.

Calgary Flames

Staring down the barrel at a full rebuild, the Flames should be open to anything. They need to be taking calls on everyone on that roster over 25. Moving Kadri to the highest bidder is a must, and I would definitely be shopping Zach Whitecloud, who should fetch a really nice return as a coveted big, right-shot defenseman who has a Cup and is signed for another two years at just $2.75 million. They already have four first-round picks in the next two years, and by moving Kadri, Whitecloud, and Blake Coleman, it’s conceivable they add a couple more.

Chicago Blackhawks

This is something of a weird spot for the Blackhawks, who have been rebuilding for a while and are slowly starting to see the returns from their high picks, but have done such a terrible job building the roster around them. As much as you’d think a team in their position should be continuing to try and add picks and young players for ageing veterans, they also need to give the likes of Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and others some good players to play with. Chicago’s veterans are unlikely to fetch them much, either. The one guy I’d try and move is Tyler Bertuzzi, who just turned 31 and has two more years left at $5.5 million. He’s already four goals away (26) from setting a new career high (30) and is the type of player contending teams will covet in the playoffs. The reality is he’s not actually that good, but he’s made the most of his opportunity playing high up the lineup in Chicago and Kyle Davidson should be trying to cash in on that. The Blackhawks are also a team that would make sense for me as a landing spot for pending UFA Patrik Laine. He’ll come free – you might even be able to get a late pick attached to take on the rest of his contract – and you can give him a two-month audition in the lineup to prove himself and get an up-close look as to whether you want to make him an offer to stay beyond this season. It’s a completely risk-free move.

Colorado Avalanche

Not much needs to be said about the Avs, who laid the groundwork for a bigger trade already by moving Samuel Girard. They’re pretty obviously targeting an upgrade at forward, and everyone will have Nazem Kadri penciled in here, but I would love to see them bring back Ryan O’Reilly. He’ll cost less, is easier to fit in under the cap next season, and would be the optimal fit on that third line. He’s also probably the better player at this point in their careers?

Columbus Blue Jackets

All indications are the franchise is going to do what they can to get into the playoffs. If that’s the case, they need to make a splash or they will fall short again. I wouldn’t. There’s a lot of good, young talent on this roster and I don’t think trading futures for a rental just to improve their chances of making the playoffs to a number still sub-60% is remotely worth it. I’d go the other way, if I were in Don Waddell’s shoes. It’s a buyer’s market so it’s easier said than done, but trading some impending UFAs to add assets they can flip as part of a bigger move this summer to get them over the hump feels like the best path forward. I know they’re growing impatient, but dealing a couple of Mason Marchment, Charlie Coyle, Boone Jenner, and Danton Heinen would be the most logical approach to the deadline.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have really hit their stride as we approach the deadline and I’m fascinated to see what they do over these next couple days with Tyler Seguin on season ending LTIR. Another right shot on the blue line would make sense here, though a lefty could also work if they want to keep Miro Heiskanen playing on his off side to keep him, Esa Lindell, and Thomas Harley (all left shots) in the top four. If so, I wonder about Oliver Ekman-Larsson here. They’re loaded down the middle but could definitely use another middle-six winger. Blake Coleman or Conor Garland would be home runs.

Detroit Wings

The Wings will be linked to every big name available over the next few days, and for good reason. Hockeytown has been starved of playoff hockey for nearly a decade and with a war chest of picks and prospects, they have a ton of flexibility to improve the roster any way they can. There is a widespread belief out there that this is some young, up-and-coming team. Sure, they have young pieces and a lot in the pipeline still to come through, but a big chunk of this roster is also either in their prime or on the back nine. They differ in that way from Atlantic Division rivals like the Canadiens and Sabres. The team isn’t good enough to make any real noise in the playoffs, so they should be going big-game hunting to really pull themselves into the mix, seeing as they can move some high picks and young pieces without impacting the future too much.  

Edmonton Oilers

For the Oilers, it’s more a case of what can they do vs. what should they do. Cap space is nonexistent so for every dollar in they need to move dollars out. They’re not going to make another move in net, despite what people seem to think. And they’re set on the back end after adding Connor Murphy. Bringing in some depth up front is all I expect here and a guy who fits the bill is Bobby McMann. He’s from the area and he comes dirt cheap, especially if the Leafs retain salary. They can fit him under the cap without much of a sweat and he can play up and down the lineup. Will a 2nd be enough to get it done? I would have thought so 24 hours ago, but after seeing what the Wild paid for Michael McCarron, I’m not so sure anymore.

Florida Panthers

Everything the Panthers do over these next couple days should be done with an eye on next season. They’ll be fully healthy again, and a year without a deep playoff run should help them be nice and rested going into next season. Evan Rodrigues is an obvious sell candidate to clear out some cap space, and I’d certainly explore trying to move impending UFAs Sergei Bobrovsky and AJ Greer. They can always move them with the intent of bringing them back in the summer, like the Canadiens did many years ago with Tomas Plekanec. Outside of those guys, there’s not much the Panthers can do over the next few days. Any bigger moves would likely come closer to the draft.

Los Angeles Kings

Firing Jim Hiller was the best deadline move the Kings could have made for their future. Everyone seems content on eulogizing them after a rough stretch, but I’m not quite there yet. The bigger issue is they have too many bloated contracts on the back end. In an ideal world they shore up the blue line by adding a respectable second-pairing guy, but it’s hard to see them taking that route after Ken Holland went and overpaid to bring in guys like Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin, and Joel Edmundson. They have the cap space, so I still think the best path forward is adding a guy like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but that would require Holland to admit his mistake and make one of his failed veteran signings watch games from the press box. We’ll instead see them focus their attention on replacing Kevin Fiala. Patrik Laine is far from a perfect answer, but he would be a big boost for the league’s 26th-ranked power play that’s converting at just a 16.8% clip this season. He’s also got a point to prove over the final two months as he plays for a contract next season. Regardless, the Kings need to do something because as bad as it’s been for them this is their last hoorah with Anze Kopitar, and the Pacific Division is still bad enough where anything can happen provided they find their way into the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild

Center is the obvious need here and Vincent Trochek is a natural fit for this roster, but I do wonder about local guy Brock Boeser, too. Those two teams getting together for another sizeable in-season deal seems unlikely, though, and I’m not sure the Wild want to take on that contract as they try to maintain their flexibility to make an all-out push to get Quinn Hughes re-signed. This would be an intriguing destination for Shane Wright, too. He’s not the 2C they need, but he would be able to play up and down this lineup and give them enviable depth at the position along with Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman, and Danila Yurov. They have a really good team, but need more up front to get them over the hump in a brutal Central Division. Overpaying for Michael McCarron can’t be their only deadline week add.

Montreal Canadiens

It figures to be a quiet deadline for the Canadiens outside of finding a new home for Patrik Laine, but it would be a mistake not to make a true push for Robert Thomas. It’s not often centers of that caliber, at that age, come available. He fits their cap structure and contention window perfectly. We don’t know prospect Michael Hage’s ceiling, but everyone in that organization would be thrilled if he became… Robert Thomas. Trading a guy you hope can become that, as part of a package for a guy who already is that, is a no brainer. If the ask is astronomical, it’s fine to walk, but Kent Hughes should be putting his very best foot forward here. I’d also explore an upgrade on the right side of defense if you can make a bigger splash for someone like Zach Whitecloud who is actually good and signed beyond this season, but wouldn’t waste my time with a depth guy like Luke Schenn. Arber Xhekaj has been fine and has fully earned an extended run in the lineup. His physicality will also come in handy come playoff time.

In terms of the goaltending, I wouldn’t do anything unless it came at a very low cost. Neither of Jakub Dobes or Sam Montembault have been convincing enough to snatch the job but are we sure Jordan Binnington and Sergei Bobrovsky are upgrades at this point? They’re last and second-last in Goals Saved Above Average this season, and both bottom five in Goals Saved Above Expected. They each have distinguished track records and a proven ability to elevate their games when it matters, but I’m not ponying up here given the seasons they’ve had. Bob is an impending UFA so I’d give a 2026 3rd or a 2027 2nd to bring him in, though I wonder if Florida would consider a straight swap for Montembault? They need someone to form a tandem with Daniil Tarasov next year. Binnington is trickier. He’s signed for $6 million next season, which would be an anchor of a contract if he doesn’t rediscover his form, so unless he comes borderline free (he won’t), I’m probably passing.

Nashville Predators

The next few days are extremely simple for the Predators: do anything you can to move on from the Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault contracts. That’s the top, and I’d argue only priority for them. Moving Ryan O’Reilly for the right return makes sense, but he has another year left at a reasonable cap hit so they can always re-visit that in the summer, or next deadline. They’re off to a good start with the Michael McCarron and Cole Smith deals.

New Jersey Devils

I wouldn’t trust Tom Fitzgerald to do much of anything here. There needs to be a much bigger conversation about what’s next in New Jersey. For the next couple days, take calls on some of your veteran depth guys (Nick Bjugstad, Evgenii Dadonov, Luke Glendening, Brenden Dillon) and the rest can be sorted in the summer under a new regime.

New York Islanders

In last week’s newsletter I had Connor Garland going to the Islanders in one of my mock trades, which appears to have legs all of a sudden. It makes so much sense for both team and player, so it would be cool to actually see that come to fruition. If they can’t pull it off, they need to quickly re-focus their efforts because they are in dire need of a top-six winger.

New York Rangers

Chris Drury already outlined their deadline plans in a letter to fans earlier this year. Artemi Panarin was shipped out, and I’m not sure who else they can realistically move this week outside of Vincent Trocheck. JT Miller and Mika Zibanejad aren’t conversations that will be seriously had over these next couple days. This is a mess made by Drury that should be cleaned up by someone else.

Ottawa Senators

No one in Ottawa will be ready to waive the white flag yet, and nor should they. But I also don’t believe they should be making moves for rentals. If they can pull something bigger off it should be for someone with term, especially with it being so hard to convince guys to sign in Ottawa. Those deals are unlikely to occur now, though. A depth winger to play on the third line, who comes at a low cost, would make the most sense for the Senators at the deadline, so they can stop playing Nick Cousins on the third line. Jaden Schwartz wouldn’t cost much and would give them a legitimate option to play with Shane Pinto on the third line.

Philadelphia Flyers

It’s a no-brainer to try and move Rasmus Ristolainen, who has another year left at $5.1 million, simply because he’s not very good. He’s the type of guy who will be coveted come playoff time for his size, and his game is certainly more conducive to playoff hockey one would figure, even though he’s still yet to play a single playoff game is his 13-year NHL career. Nicolas Deslauriers could fetch them a late pick, but it’s hard to see the Flyers doing much outside of that. It’s been reported that Owen Tippett is available, but I can’t see that coming to fruition before Friday. The Flyers need to take a step back and do some serious planning for this summer because there’s not a lot about this roster that makes sense and it’s hard to see a pathway to contention if they don’t start getting creative.

Pittsburgh Penguins

This is a weird spot for Kyle Dubas who, it must be said, has done a good job up to this point. They’re in a playoff spot and keep winning without Sidney Crosby, despite not playing particularly well. How long can this hold up for? Getting Crosby back into the playoffs would undoubtedly be awesome to see, but not capitalizing on moving some of their impending UFAs seems foolish for a team that has a second-round ceiling. It’s a delicate balance between not wanting to concede a playoff spot but also wanting to stay the course and build for the future. Given the fact that they still have a bunch of core guys in the twilight of their careers, it makes the most sense to me to listen to what’s out there but stand pat unless something really blows me away.

San Jose Sharks

Much like the Penguins, I think the best path forward for the Sharks these next few days is to do nothing. If someone knocks your socks off with an offer for Kiefer Sherwood, who they traded for a couple months back but don’t seem close to an extension with, then you do it. The same goes for John Klingberg and Mario Ferraro. Otherwise, you sit back and see if your young guys can play you into a playoff spot.

Seattle Kraken

This team is nowhere close to good enough and it would be a mistake not to do whatever they can to get something for impending UFAs Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak. I just don’t see the benefit of losing these guys for nothing so you can try and sneak into the playoffs to get railroaded in the first round. I’m not trading Shane Wright unless someone really ponies up, either. It’s generally not a great idea to trade a 22-year-old top pick at close to his lowest value.

St. Louis Blues

If I’m Doug Armstrong I simply don’t trade Robert Thomas. Why would you? I’ve never really been able to make sense of that one. Jordan Kyrou makes sense to shop – he’s good, but a luxury for a team loaded with wingers that’s trying to rebuild on the fly. The priority for me, though, would be Brayden Schenn. He’s been a loyal servant to this franchise for close to a decade, and won a Cup here, but his best hockey is behind him and that’s a contract – two years left at $6.5 million – you want to shed if you can. And then there’s Jordan Binnington. He’s had a miserable season but showed at the Olympics he can still be a gamer when it matters. That’s always been his thing. He seems pretty done in St. Louis and I wonder if a change of scenery will help him rediscover his game. Is he just burnt out there after so many years? Joel Hofer is the future there so the time is as good as any to move on, and there should be options for them to move his contract provided they’re ok with a muted return.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Any move the Lightning make will be a luxury. This is unquestionably the best team in the East and arguably the best team in the league. Simply getting and staying healthy would be enough for them – we haven’t seen their best 19 together at any point this season. I’m not even sure what their best 19 is though, as they have eight defensemen who should be playing regular NHL minutes. They have to be mindful of possibly losing Darren Raddysh this summer but can still afford to move a blue liner for an upgrade up front. Blake Coleman would be the home run, but there are a number of available wingers who would slot in as an upgrade on that third line.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I’m not sure there’s a clear pathway to the Leafs finding themselves back in contention next season. The roster needs a fair bit of work and they don’t have a ton of flexibility, especially on the back end where they’re paying a lot of declining veterans for several more years. They have a lot of dead weight and should spend the next couple days offloading as much of it as possible. There’s a dozen guys who should be candidates to be dealt. Realistically they’ll only move out a couple of bodies, but they need to be one of the most active teams this week, not only to make space on the roster, but to replenish a barren cupboard. Any picks or players they add can be flipped as part of bigger deals this summer if the goal is a quick retool. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Bobby McMann are the musts for me. OEL, who turns 35 this summer and is having his best season in years, is an obvious sell-high candidate. Who knows what you get from him next year. McMann is reportedly looking for around $5 million per year on a five-year deal. That’s a hard pass. Get something for him while you can.

Utah Mammoth

There’s something of an Alex Tuch situation happening in Utah, where Nick Schmaltz is a UFA at season’s end. He’s already tied his career high in goals and is due a massive raise this summer. Cap space isn’t an issue for the Mammoth. The question is whether Schmaltz wants to cash in on the open market. I think they’re confident they can re-sign him, but regardless they aren’t moving him. It really does feel as though they want to go big-game hunting again. I’m sure they’d like a redo on the JJ Peterka deal, but Robert Thomas would be fascinating here. Running a top-six of Keller-Thomas-Schmaltz and Peterka-Cooley-Guenther is legit. If they don’t take a big swing, they need to improve their depth up front. You can’t have Kailer Yamamoto (5’9), Michael Carcone (5’9), and Alex Kerfoot (5’11 and 180 soaking wet) all taking regular shifts in your bottom six come playoff time. I wonder about Evander Kane or AJ Greer.

Vancouver Canucks

This isn’t as straightforward a fire sale as it is for some other rebuilding teams. The Canucks’ decline has been steep and unexpected. Anyone they trade, they’ll be doing so at their lowest value. They’re already comfortably in position to land the best odds at the first-overall pick, and all their best trade assets are signed beyond this season. Evander Kane is the only impending UFA of note. They should definitely be taking calls on everyone, but I wouldn’t rush anyone out the door for 10 cents on the dollar. They can have bigger conversations about Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Conor Garland, and others this summer, or beyond, without risking any diminished returns – their values can’t get any lower than they are right now.

Vegas Golden Knights

If they can make the money work – and they always seem to find a way – Vegas are an interesting landing spot for Binnington. Adin Hill has turned into a pumpkin and you can’t rely on Akira Schmid every night. Binnington is more than familiar with several of these guys (Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, Shea Theodore) from his time with Canada and going to a competitive team may be exactly what he needs to rediscover his form. The Knights always seem to have a surprise up their sleeve so I wouldn’t rule anything out here, but it feels like they made their big play already in Rasmus Andersson. They just need to get healthy now.

Washington Capitals

Missing the playoffs can’t be an option for the Capitals. They’re too good a team and the Metro is wide open once again. It would be a shame for Alex Ovechkin to not get another go at it in what could be his last season, too. I really like this roster and the middle six is very good. What they need is a replacement for Anthony Beauvillier on the top line. Blake Coleman or Jonathan Marchessault would look good there, and I also wonder about Kiefer Sherwood. Whoever it is, finding an upgrade on Beauvillier is a must.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are in a near identical position to the Leafs, only I think they have a clearer pathway to getting back to contention next season. They’re deeper and a bit younger up front, certainly younger on the back end, have a true number one in Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck in net, and still have their first-round pick. The margin for error is thin, but with the right moves they can be back to being a threat in the West as early as next season. Get what you can for impending UFAs Gustav Nyquist, Luke Schenn, and Logan Stanley. I’m also taking calls on Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov. Whatever picks you get can be used this summer, along with a surprisingly deep prospect pool, to re-tool around your core. 

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Unlock your 14 Day Free Trial to Betstamp PRO
Compare odds across 200+ global odds sources and benchmark every bet against our proprietary True Line, built using historical pricing data from the sharpest books in the market. Test the screen today. 
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) Everyone’s doing it, and I have had some notable disagreements with what I’ve seen out there. So here are my projected Team Canada and Team USA 2030 Olympic rosters:

TEAM CANADA 2030

Macklin Celebrini (23) – Connor McDavid (33) – Wyatt Johnston (26)
Connor Bedard (24) – Nathan MacKinnon (34) – Beckett Sennecke (24)
Gavin McKenna (22) – Adam Fantilli (25) – Seth Jarvis (28)
Brandon Hagel (31) – Nick Suzuki (30) – Mitch Marner (32)
Mason McTavish (27), Dylan Guenther (26)

First one out: Quinton Byfield (27)

Keep an eye on: Brady Martin (22)

My biggest takeaway is how impossible an exercise this was. There will be a lot of consensus out there among the 2030 mock teams, and I can pretty much guarantee we’ll look back on them in four years and see how wrong they all are. There are just so many variables among such a massive pool of players. How will veterans like Hagel, Marner, and Brayden Point look when their footspeed has slowed? It’s conceivable that none of them are there. There’s also a large group of guys you won’t see on anyone’s teams right now, but who certainly have the talent to be there in 2030 if they take the necessary steps; guys like Alexis Lafreniere, Ben Kindel, Dylan Holloway, Jack Quinn, Jake Neighbours, Kent Johnson, Logan Stankoven, Michael Misa, Porter Martone, Robert Thomas, Will Cuylle, Zachary Benson, and more. It’s a deep pool – the deepest in the world – and a lot can happen in four years.

Matthew Schaefer (22) – Cale Makar (31)
Thomas Harley (28) – Brandt Clarke (27)
Owen Power (27) – Evan Bouchard (29)
Sam Dickinson (23), Noah Dobson (30)

First one out: Denton Mateychuk (25)

Keep an eye on: Landon DuPont (20)

In looking through a lot of these projected 2030 rosters, it blew me away how universally underrated Clarke is. Barring injury, he’s a lock for me here and I think it’s only a matter of time before everyone catches on to how good he really is. I’m also not nearly as sold on Jakob Chychrun, who is on everyone’s team. He’s obviously good, but will be on the wrong side of 30 by then and has dealt with a wealth of injuries throughout his career. They have enough options on the left that I don’t expect him to be better at that age than Power and Dickinson. A lot of people seem to have written off Power due to his defensive struggles, but it takes time for these younger guys to fully develop that part of their game. Just look at where his teammate Rasmus Dahlin was at this age – people were calling him a bust. I have little doubt Power will get there sooner that later, and I love Dickinson. He’s got all the tools and, similar to Clarke, by 2030 I expect him to have properly announced himself to the hockey world. I’m taking him and his 6’3 frame over ageing veterans like Josh Morrissey, who missed the 4 Nations final because he was sick and then missed the bulk of the Olympics with an injury. Frankly, I don’t care to see Morrissey represent Canada again outside of the Worlds every May. Lastly, you’ll see projected 2026 top-3 pick Keaton Verhoeff on a lot of 2030 mock teams, but I’m a little bit more interested in Dupont for this exercise. He’s a year younger but has that tantalizing ceiling of a Matthew Schaefer that we’d need to see from either guy to force their way onto this team at such a young age.

Logan Thompson (31)
Jet Greaves (28)
Sebastian Cossa (27)

First one out: Mackenzie Blackwood (33)

Keep an eye on: Joel Hofer (29)

Goaltending isn’t going to magically become a strength for Canada in 2030, but I do have high hopes for both Greaves and Cossa. The latter a consensus top goaltending prospect and is putting up insane numbers in the AHL. He has a lot to prove between now and then, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say we could even see him starting games for Canada in 2030 if he remains on this trajectory.

2.) TEAM USA 2030

Matthew Boldy (28) – Auston Matthews (32) – Jason Robertson (30)
Brady Tkachuk (30) – Jack Hughes (28) – Cole Caufield (28)
Matthew Tkachuk (32) – Jack Eichel (33) – Cutter Gauthier (26)
Matthew Knies (27) – Tage Thompson (32) – Ryan Leonard (25)
Will Smith (24), Frank Nazar (25)

First one out: Clayton Keller (31)

Keep an eye on: Josh Doan (28)

The talent pool isn’t as deep here there are less names that can break into this fold, but there’s still a fairly extensive list. I’m fascinated to see how things play out down the middle. Eichel and Matthews have both been plagued by back issues so there are legitimate questions as to how they age, which would open the door for guys like Smith and Nazar to move up the lineup, making room on the team for guys like Logan Cooley, Matty Beniers, and James Hagens.  

Jake Sanderson (27) – Brock Faber (27)
Quinn Hughes (30) – Charlie McAvoy (32)
Zach Werenski (32) – Adam Fox (31)
Lane Hutson (25), Jackson Lacombe (29)

First one out: Zeev Buium (24)

Keep an eye on: Chase Ried (22)

It’s tougher to fit the pieces together on the back end, where you want to avoid putting Hughes, Fox, or Hutson on a pair together. Conservatively, Hutson should comfortably be one of their best four defensemen by 2030, but the issue is their best players are all left-handed. For this exercise, I included him as an extra as I believe 2026 veterans would get the starting nod. Hutson could also be utilized on his off side, where he plays quite often for Montreal, in order to get him in the lineup. Buium has a great career ahead of him, but like Hutson in 2026, he’s left out here because there are too many stylistically similar guys ahead of him in the pecking order.

Jake Oettinger (31)
Spencer Knight (28)
Jeremy Swayman (31)

First one out: Dustin Wolf (28)

Keep an eye on: Jacob Fowler (24)

It may seem insane not to include Connor Hellebuyck here. His heroics in the 2026 Gold Medal Game are fresh in everyone’s mind, but he’ll be 36 by the time the next Olympics come around. He’s already played over 600 games and will be above 800 by 2030. When you look at where other greats (see: Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick) were at 36, it’s clear the Americans will have a wealth of better options, and I don’t see the point of including him as a favor seeing as he’s now already won a gold medal.

3.) With the trade deadline just 10 days away, over the next two weeks I’m going to drop some mock trades in here that I believe would make a lot of sense for the teams involved.

To TB: Blake Coleman (50% retention)
To CGY: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Maxwell Crozier, 2026 2nd, 2027 2nd

Coleman won back-to-back Cups with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021, is obviously loved by Jon Cooper, and fits the bill as the sort of player GM Julien BriseBois likes to acquire this time of year. With another year left on his deal, he’s not a pure rental. Tampa sends Bjorkstrand back to make the money work and pays a bigger price to get that 50% retention. Crozier looks like a good depth defenseman but is stuck behind a logjam on the Lightning blue line. He’s also from Calgary.

To MIN: Owen Tippett
To PHI: Jesper Wallstedt

This would finally solve the goaltending issues plaguing Philly for years, while giving the Wild a nice injection size and scoring up front. I’m sure Minnesota would prefer a center, but the emergence of Danila Yurov gives them a bit more flexibility. They could regret moving Wallstedt down the road, but he’s a luxury they don’t need right now given the Filip Gustavsson extension.

To CAR: Alex Tuch, Colton Ellis
To BUF: Jackson Blake, 2026 6th, 2027 3rd

This is probably the most unrealistic of the bunch as I’m not sure the Hurricanes care to move Blake, but Eric Tulsky isn’t afraid to take swings. They want to be a tougher team to face in the playoffs and Tuch does that. They also have the cap space to try and convince him to re-sign this summer. Trading Tuch in the midst of their first playoff push in ages isn’t ideal for the Sabres, but they’re still a very young team that should have eyes on the coming years here. Losing Tuch for nothing this summer is simply bad business, while adding Blake softens the blow and gives them a player with term to fit into their long-term plans.

To BOS: Nazem Kadri
To CGY: 2026 1st (BOS), Mason Lohrei, Fabian Lysell

I’m not sure if Kadri has the Bruins on his 13-team no-trade list, but it would be a lot of fun to see him head to the team he got suspended against twice in the playoffs while with Toronto. He really does feel like a “Bruins player” though, doesn’t he? With no retention, I think this package gets the job done for Calgary. Lohrei, who is under team control as an RFA at the end of his current contract in 2027, has been rumored to be on the block before, and makes a lot of sense here for a Flames team in need of lefties on the back end (Weegar, Whitecloud, Parekh, Pachal are all righties).

To OTT: Jordan Kyrou
To STL: Tyler Kleven, Jorian Donovan, 2027 1st, 2026 3rd

Ottawa has the space to pull this off, and definitely need more of a long-term answer on the wing – Claude Giroux and David Perron are both in their late 30s and pending UFAs. Kyrou is a very responsible player who would fit perfectly in Travis Green’s system. He’d look great on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens, allowing Ridly Greig to slot down to the third line and provide more support for Shane Pinto.

To DET: Robert Thomas
To STL: Nate Danielson, Trey Augustine, 2026 1st, 2026 3rd

There might not be a team more desperate to make a splash at this deadline than the Wings, as they look to end a nine-year playoff drought. They also are one of the extremely equipped to do so, with a war chest of picks and prospects. St. Louis can pretty much name their package here. Augustine could be the heir to Jordan Binnington, forming a formidable tandem with Joel Hofer in the coming years. Whether they’d want to trade the Michigan-born goalie remains to be seen, but they don’t have room for both him and Sebastian Cossa. Danielson, the ninth-overall pick in 2023, projects to be a similarly strong two-way center to Thomas, though maybe without the same offensive upside.

To NYI: Conor Garland
To VAN: Daniil Prokhorov, 2026 1st (NYI), 2027 2nd

I’m a big Garland guy, and I think he would be a perfect fit for this Isles team. He’s extremely responsible defensively and is a pretty consistent 20-goal scorer, which would immediately make him the team’s best winger. It also would allow Mathew Barzal to slide back to center, as they likely won’t want to go into the playoffs with a very green Calum Ritchie as the 2C. It makes sense for the Isles take a swing at the deadline to cement themselves as a top-three team in the Metro given Sidney Crosby’s injury. They have a wealth of picks and prospects to part with, so why not have a go?

To EDM: Bobby McMann
To TOR: 2026 2nd, 2027 2nd

This one pretty much writes itself. The Oilers are against the cap and have limited assets to try and improve at the deadline, so they should jump at the opportunity to grab McMann – a pending UFA on a cheap deal. McMann grew up just outside of Edmonton and would surely love the chance to return home to chase a Cup alongside the best player in the world.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Unlock your 14 Day Free Trial to Betstamp PRO
Compare odds across 200+ global odds sources and benchmark every bet against our proprietary True Line, built using historical pricing data from the sharpest books in the market. Test the screen today. 
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) Last year’s 4 Nations was a huge success, but I remember the discourse after it being about the impact it had on teams and players coming out of the break. I took a deeper look to get a better idea of that impact. Matthew Tkachuk and Shea Theodore suffered significant injuries that kept them out a while, while a few others missed a game or two with minor bruises, or for rest. I looked at the teams with at least four skaters (not including goalies) at the tournament to see how they fared before and after the pause:

Cleary there was no dip for any of these teams. I even shortened the sample size, just looking at numbers from the month before the break and the two weeks after it. By doing so there’s obviously way more room for variance, but I wanted to get a sense of how these teams were playing right before the pause, and if they were a little slow getting back to form coming out of it:

There’s nothing here. It’s a small sample, and it was a smaller tournament with a shorter break than a traditional Olympics, so I also went back to 2014 – the last time the NHL sent players to the Olympics – and went through the same exercise, while moving the goalposts slightly to look at teams who sent at least five skaters due to the expanded field. In the chart below, GP is the amount of games played during the 2013-14 season for each team by players at the 2014 Olympics, and PTS is the amount of points they cumulatively scored for that team during the year.

We did see a dip here from a handful of the teams near the top, but it was marginal, and with others improving their play there was nothing consistent enough to signal anything more than randomness. The Penguins were without top defensemen Kris Letang and Paul Martin for most of February and all of March, explaining their dip. Other teams suffered injuries, or made trades, while some were simply locked into a playoff spot without a whole lot to play for down the stretch. But what is noteworthy is the top eight teams all made the playoffs, with six of them advancing to the second round and four of them the Conference Finals. It’s fair to conclude there was no lasting impact of sending guys to the Olympics (at least not for that season).

I again made the sample smaller to take a micro look at how they were playing right before the Olympics vs. how they did in the immediacy post-Sochi:

This is a really long-winded way of saying there’s no need to make any adjustments post-Olympic break, aside from any injuries that may carry over. I mentioned on a show a few weeks ago that I may take a break from betting the NHL for a week or two after the restart to allow things to settle back into place, because I remembered some wonky results after 4 Nations last year. Looking back at my bets, and the above data, that wasn’t the case. The few wonky results I remember were simply variance in small samples that happen throughout the entire season. It’ll be business as usual for me on February 25, while being mindful of some guys potentially sitting the first game or two back.

2.)I also went back and grabbed data from the goalies who partook in each of the last three international tournaments. In each of the below charts you’ll find the goalie, their total appearances at the listed tournament, and their goals saved above expected (GSAx) in each of their first three starts back (1st, 2nd, 3rd).

4 Nations (minimum two appearances):

2014 Sochi Olympics (minimum three appearances):

*Price missed the first three weeks after the break with an injury

2010 Vancouver Olympics (minimum three appearances):

You can draw your own conclusions from this data dump, but I won’t be making any adjustments upon the NHL’s return to play.

3.)Goal leaders at the last four Olympics with NHLers present, listed as “Player, Country (Goals, Games Played)”:

Every year there are a couple of real surprises at the top, which should be expected for such a short tournament. Anything can happen over a 4-7 game sample. In 2014, Michael Grabner scored a hat trick in an 8-4 opening loss to Finland and added another two in a 3-1 win over Norway. That was enough to make him joint-top scorer. Lauris Darzins was one off the lead for a Latvia team that won just one game. In 2010, a hat trick in a 5-4 loss to Switzerland saw Tore Vikingstad come close to matching leader Iginla in three fewer games – Norway lost every game at the tournament. In 2006, Kazakhstan scored the second-fewest goals at the tournament but Yevgeniy Koreshkov nearly won top scorer before being edged out by Olli Jokinen and Teemu Selanne, who went the distance with Finland.

In all likelihood, it will be a player from one of the top-four finishers who winds up top scorer, but given the structure of the tournament it’s entirely possible those teams get a bye to the quarters and only wind up playing one extra game than a team that sneaks into the quarters via an easier matchup in the playoff. And with how loaded these top teams are, I’d expect minutes to be more evenly distributed, with scoring contributions from up and down the lineup. For the weaker teams, scoring will likely come from the same source. All it takes is one big game from someone to make things interesting, and that really opens things up in the top scorer market.

For my bets, I targeted players who will feature in a prominent offensive role (top six, first power play) for weaker nations that have the potential to put up goals. Slovakia jumped out as a team I expect to play in some high-scoring games, and they have a game against Italy to rack up goals. To a lesser extent, Denmark and Switzerland also apply here. With that logic in mind, I came up with a few long shots worth small bets to lead the Olympics in goals:

Juraj Slafkovsky, SVK (80-1)
Oliver Bjorkstrand, DEN (100-1)
Anton Lundell, FIN (175-1)*
Dalibor Dvorsky, SVK (250-1)
Tomas Tatar, SVK (300-1)
Denis Malgin, SUI (300-1)

*Lundell doesn’t fit the same mould, but he’s being undervalued given the role I expect him to have for a Finland team that could play the full seven games in Milan (don’t receive an auto-quarterfinal berth but still reach the medal games).

4.)We are taking a content pause at The Hammer next week as we spend the week planning and getting organized for an exciting year ahead. With that being said, there will be no newsletter next week, and thus no column. I’ll be back with the next edition on February 25 – the day the NHL returns. I plan on looking at some futures in there, identifying ideal trade deadline targets for each team, and maybe doing some sort of rest-of-season ranking I haven’t quite figured out yet. If there’s anything you want to see included, let me know in the #nhl channel in the Hammer Discord, or DM me on X. 

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Betstamp PRO Props 50% Off 
Win more player props at scale with true market pricing across 200+ feeds, alt lines, and every major sport. Stop guessing. Start betting with real market data. APPLY NOW.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Super Bowl Props Extravaganza Show

Every year our most popular show is our Super Bowl Props Extravaganza where we bring on tons of guests over the course of 5 hours to give out their best prop bet for Sunday's game. If you haven't watched yet and would like to you can check it out here

With that being said, these were all the picks given out

Captain Jack - Seattle not to have a successful 4th down conversion (+114)
George Tsilfidis - Drake Maye over 220.5 pass yards (-110)
China Maniac - Sam Darnold under 6.5 rush yards (-110)
Matthew Freedman - Jaxon Smith-Njigba rush yards over 0.5 (+290)
Hitman - Mack Hollins under 2.5 receptions (-140)
Ken Barkley - Over 1.5 interceptions (+112)
Austin Mock - Rhamondre Stevenson 30+ receiving yards (+140)
Sam Panayotovich - First quarter under 8.5 points (-118)
Johnny from Betstamp - Rhamondre Stevenson under 14.5 rush attempts (-122)
Clev TA - TreVeyon Henderson over 2.5 receiving yards (-118)
Kirk Evans - Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP +550
Fabian Sommer - Rhamondre Stevenson under 49.5 rush yards (-110)
Andy Molitor - Drake Maye most pass attempts (-128)
Corbie Craig - Combined total distance of successful field goals over 128.5 (-113)
Iain MacMillan - Over 7.5 punts (-113)
Adam Levitan - Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1st quarter receiving yards under 18.5 (-112)
Joey Knish - Sam Darnold to record a 40+ yard completion (+130)
Jack Miller - No 2pt conversion attempt (-196)
Geoff Fienberg - Drake Maye under 37.5 rush yards (-110)
Kyle Kirms - Stefon Diggs 3rd quarter receiving yards over 7.5 (-110)
Chris Dierkes - Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP +550
Drew Dinsick - First half alt under 17.5 (+215)
Mr. Peanut Bettor - George Holani most rushing yards (+5500)
Berryhorse - George Holani over 1.5 receptions (-128)
Doug Kezirian - TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-200)
Judah Fortgang - Rashid Shaheed most rushing yards (+6000)
Clive Bixby - Result of Patriots 1st drive - Punt (-120)
Jason Cooper - Under 38.5 first downs (-113)
Rob Pizzola - NE Patriots 1st Drive - To Reach the 50 Yard Line NO +124

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more:JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Attack Super Bowl player props with Betstamp PRO — 99¢ this weekend

Your Super Bowl betting screen has arrived. Get Betstamp PRO for just 99¢ this weekend and see true market pricing across Super Bowl main markets and player props, including alternate lines. Secure your spot before kickoff. 
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) I wanted to start here, courtesy of our friend – Florida Man, spoiled Panthers fan, long-time Edge Work watcher – Charles Saul from the Discord: “Need a breakdown for make miss playoffs markets Edgework or in the newsletter. Such a crazy race this year def some money to be made”

If you’ve been glued into betting the playoff market this season, you could have accumulated a great portfolio by now with plus-money prices on just about every team in the race to make, or miss. It’s remained largely congested throughout the season, which has resulted in some considerable odds swings on a week-to-week basis. But we’re starting to see some separation, finally. Things are far from decided, but for the first time really in 2025-26 we’re starting to get a clearer picture as to which teams truly control their own destiny. Here’s where we stand as of Wednesday, January 28:

In the East, we’re looking at a six-point gap between second and third in the wild-card race (although just four points separates third from fourth and fifth in the Metro). I think Tampa and Carolina are the only absolute playoff locks in the East, but I’m also willing to pencil in the Wings, Sabres, and Canadiens at this point – all three of whom I believe are above70%to make it. That leaves three playoff spots up for grabs – second and third in the Metro, and one wild card spot. It’s getting harder and harder to discount what the Bruins and Penguins are doing, but gun to my head, I’d pick the Capitals, Devils, and Panthers to round out the field, narrowly beating out the Penguins and Senators. I think Ottawa make things very interesting. That’s a team, along with the Capitals and Devils, who I expect to be very active around the deadline doing whatever they can to get in. Washington will get Pierre-Luc Dubois back after the Olympics, and has plenty of assets to add reinforcements up front, while New Jersey has much-needed flexibility following the Palat trade. The Devils have been playing good hockey lately and have the talent to go on quite the run out of the Olympic break. My favorite playoff bets in the East right now on FanDuel are the Capitals tomake it (+180)and the Islanders tomiss (+125).

Things are a lot less convoluted in the West, only because the quality of the middle tier is so much worse. We also have a lot more “locks” in the West: Colorado, Minnesota, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. I’d also be pretty surprised at this point if the Mammoth or Kings don’t make it. It’s not that I’m in love with either of them, but they are a clear class above the teams they’re competing with, and that’s reflected in their current playoff odds (Mammoth -475,Kings -300). I’m not betting either at those numbers, but I think they’re both good enough teams to comfortably fend off the challenge of the teams they’re fighting with. If I’m right, that leaves just one more spot up for grabs, which will come down to the Ducks, Sharks, Kraken, Predators, or Jets. I am extremely out on the Kraken, I think the Jets have simply dug too big a hole to climb out of, and as much as I love how Nashville’s been playing, I think it realistically comes down to the Ducks and Sharks. It would be awesome to see Celebrini carry San Jose into the playoffs on his back, but selfishly I have a lot of pre-flop positions on the Ducks and I also think they’d be a much better watch in the first round. I love how they responded to losing nine straight, by winning seven in a row without both Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson. They’re getting both guys back soon, and Lukas Dostal has rediscovered his form. This is a really quality Ducks roster when fully healthy, and I think the talent gap between them and San Jose is just too much for the Sharks to overcome. I wouldn’t be running to bet it at-180, though. I don’t see a ton of value in the make/miss playoff markets in the West.

2.)The NHL needs a solution for offside reviews. There are a lot of rule hardos out there who will fight back on this, but there are few things worse for the game from an entertainment perspective than having to sit through a five-minute replay review that wipes out a goal because 45 seconds before the puck went in, a player who had no involvement in the zone entry was half-an-inch offside when the puck officially crossed the line. Of course, the only way to determine the play was offside in these cases is to slow the replay down to a borderline standstill and look at it from 10 different angles. It’s just not in the spirit of the rule, and it’s not how offside replay came to be. It exists today because an egregious missed call over a decade ago, to prevent that sort of thing from happening again, but has snowballed into something so much worse. I’d rather live with a bad missed call from time to time than sit through what offside reviews have become.

There are a lot of ways to try an fix the problem. We could look at the timing of the offside in relation to the goal, whether or not the offside player was involved in the zone entry, or how obvious the offside really was (can we tell in real time from one camera angle, or do we need to look from several angles and slow it down frame by frame?). But at the end of the day, if you start to incorporate all these stipulations, it gets convoluted and becomes somewhat arbitrary. The simplest fix, in my opinion, is this: put a 60 second timer on offside reviews. That’s it. If a goal is challenged, the refs have 60 seconds to determine if the play was offside. They can use whatever replays they want in that time, but if they can’t conclusively overturn the call on the ice by the end of the 60 seconds then it wasn’t an egregious mistake, the goal should stand, and we can all move on with our lives.

3.)We had a trade yesterday – the second in as many days for the Islanders, both with fellow Tri-State rivals. On Tuesday night they traded Maxim Tsyplakov for Ondrej Palat, a 2026 3rd-round pick, and a 2027 6th-round pick. They received a fair bit of praise for the deal, including from Frank Seravalli and Justin Bourne. I don’t see it the same way. The Isles’ roster is marginally better with Palat on it than Tsyplakov, and I understand they turn an asset that was free to acquire into a couple picks and an experienced player, but Palat looks very close to cooked and he’s making a lot of money for the next 1.5 seasons. The Isles have the room right now because of injuries, but adding something of an anchor for 6 million next season is pretty limiting. You’re also letting a division rival off the hook – one that has been desperately trying to clear space to take a big swing. This gives the Devils a lot of flexibility to improve the roster ahead of a hopeful playoff push, and I can’t help but think they should have been charged a much higher premium to offload Palat’s contract than they did here. Tsyplakov hasn’t produced much this year, but he’s a big kid who is half a year removed from a 35-point season (and +4 on a bad team). Palat hasn’t put up 35 points since 2021-22 and he’s being paid way more. I don’t think it’s some disastrous deal by any means for NYI, but I think if you’re going to let a direct rival off the hook, you should be hiking the tax. They didn’t do that here by any means.

________________________________________

Player Props to Watch – Super Bowl Market Check-In

As we look towards Super Bowl week, the prop market is already starting to take shape.

Even this early, you can already see meaningful disagreement across books on key props. Some numbers are tightly clustered, while others show big gaps depending on where you look. For example, you’ve got Kenneth Walker’s receiving yards, Stefon Diggs’ receiving yards, Rhamondre Stevenson’s longest rush, and Sam Darnold’s pass attempts all showing clear separation between sharper books and slower-moving ones. In a market this liquid and this heavily bet, those gaps don’t exist by accident.

This is exactly how Super Bowl prop markets always behave: limits are high, public interest is massive, and numbers move based on information, modeling, and respected money long before most bettors realize what’s happening. Some books adjust quickly. Others lag. And that’s where value consistently comes from.

What makes this Super Bowl week different is the scale. With hundreds of props, alternate lines, and novelty markets, it becomes impossible to track this manually. That’s why the real edge is not “having a take” — it’s seeing the entire market at once, knowing which books move first, and spotting where prices are still stale.

That’s what Betstamp PRO is built for. It shows you:
 

• Where the sharpest books are pricing props

• Which books are slow to react

• Where the true market consensus actually is

• And where you’re getting a number that simply isn’t available anywhere else

As Super Bowl week progresses, you’ll see these boards change fast. Some props will move multiple times a day based on usage expectations, game-script assumptions, and matchup angles. The bettors who win this week aren’t guessing outcomes. They’re tracking market movement and taking the best version of the number.

Get the Betstamp PRO Props screen 50% off TODAY.

Lines subject to change. The Super Bowl prop market is one of the most efficient and information-driven markets of the year — and also one of the easiest places to find value if you know where to look.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Betstamp PRO Props 50% Off 
Win more player props at scale with true market pricing across 200+ feeds, alt lines, and every major sport. Stop guessing. Start betting with real market data. APPLY NOW.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Injury Reports for Championship Weekend as of Wednesday Evening
***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. 

New England at Denver
New England - OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, EDGE Harold Landry DNP, LB Christian Ellis Limited, CB Carlton Davis Limited, RB Terrell Jennings Full (Working back from I.R.), DT Joshua Farmer Full (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant Limited, WR Troy Franklin Limited, C Alex Forsyth Limited, RB J.K. Dobbins Limited (Working back from I.R.), C Luke Wattenberg Full (Working back from I.R.), LB Drew Sanders Full (Working back from I.R.)

L.A. Rams at Seattle
L.A. Rams - EDGE Byron Young DNP, CB Emmanuel Forbes Limited
Seattle - QB Sam Darnold Limited, OT Charles Cross DNP, OT Josh Jones DNP, OT Amari Knight DNP, EDGE Uchenna Nwosu Limited
 

________________________________________

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL 
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) The current run each Atlantic Division team is on, with extremely arbitrary cutoffs for each of them:

Tampa Bay Lightning: 13-0-1
Detroit Red Wings: 11-3-1
Montreal Canadiens: 11-3-3
Buffalo Sabres: 16-3-1
Boston Bruins: 8-2-0
Toronto Maple Leafs: 9-2-3
Florida Panthers: 13-8-1
Ottawa Senators: 5-6-3

2.) It’s getting late early for the Panthers. They’re playing at a 100-point pace in their last 22 games and have lost considerable ground in the race. It’s wild what’s going on in the Atlantic this year. Florida desperately needs to get healthy because there’s a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do it. Matthew Tkachuk is back and Brad Marchand is close, but Seth Jones has just been ruled out until after the Olympic break. It’s actually insane that Marchand has played 51 and Jones 61 regular season games with the Panthers, but Tkachuk has yet to play a regular season game with either. It looks like a minimum of 95 points will be required to secure a wild card berth this year. To reach that, the Panthers will have to play at close to a 102-point pace the rest of the way – certainly doable, but with every loss the margin for error shrinks. I also think the current projected cutoff of 95 points for a wild card spot will climb over the coming weeks as we begin to see some more separation between the contenders and pretenders.

3.) I wanted to take a closer look at a couple of these other Atlantic teams, starting with the Wings. They haven’t been too impressive over this 15-game run (11-3-1), but their overall season numbers are fine and don’t scream major regression. What does scream regression, though, is their injury luck. They’ve been the healthiest team in the NHL this season. Their top four defensemen have missed a combined three games, and their top-nine forwards have missed a combined 26 (Patrick Kane 15, James Van Riemsdyk 9, Lucas Raymond 2, Marco Kasper 1). Of their top 12 players in time on ice per game, just one of them (Kane) has missed more than three games. It’s been a massive reason behind their success this season.

4.) Amidst their 16-3-1 run, the Sabres are 22nd in expected goal share and third in actual goal share at five-on-five. They are 24th in shot attempt share, but second in PDO. Of those 16 wins, just six of them have come against teams currently in a playoff spot (EDM, NYI, BOS, DAL, ANA, MTL). It’s great to see that fanbase taste some success after years of disappointment, I’m just not sure how sustainable it all is. Losing Josh Norris really hurts, too. He’s missed the last four games and is likely to miss the next eight before the Olympic break as well. In these last four games without him they’ve posted a 40% expected goal share at five-on-five. I think these next eight games will basically determine whether or not they will be a playoff time come the end of the season. Of those eight games, six are against teams they’re directly competing with for a playoff spot (Canadiens twice, Islanders, Leafs, Panthers, Penguins).

5.) Remember when Ryan Warofsky said “I’d give up one of my children for a fucking win,” after the Sharks started 0-4-2? They’re 11th in the NHL in points percentage since then. The underlying metrics are ugly, but what a job he’s done with this group. He’s not going to win the Jack Adams in all likelihood, but there’s no way he should have longer odds right now than Lindy Ruff, Joel Quenneville, or Todd McLellan – all of whom have done a great job this season, but have much more at their disposal.

6.) My Jack Adams vote right now would go to Jon Cooper (+490) over Jared Bednar (-115). Obviously the Avalanche have been unbelievable this year, but Nathan MacKinnon is probably going to win the Hart and Cale Makar is going to win the Norris. They’ve also been blessed with great health this season. Of their top 16 players in time on ice per game, 12 of them have played in all 47 games. The other four have combined to miss just 37 games – Toews (7), Nichushkin (9), Girard (15), Landeskog (6). The Lightning would kill for anything close to that sort of health.

Here’s the list of important Lightning players who have missed time this season (and how many games):

Victor Hedman (30)
Ryan McDonagh (30)
Erik Cernak (19)
Nick Paul (19)
Emil Lilleberg (16)
Brayden Point (11)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (7)
Charle-Edouard D’Astous (7)
Pontus Holmberg (7)
Darren Raddysh (6)
Zemgus Girgensons (6)
Brandon Hagel (5)
Anthony Cirelli (4)
Nikita Kucherov (4)
JJ Moser (2)

It’s a miracle the Lightning are first in the East and only 10 points back of the league-leading Avalanche, and they’re doing it in a stronger conference against a tougher schedule. Coop should finally win his first Jack Adams this year.

7.) Injured players I’m watching who will (or at least could) return at some point before the Olympic break:

ANA: Troy Terry (no clear timetable, could be back at any point here)
BOS: None
BUF: Josh Norris (week-to-week, unlikely back before Olympics, but possible he is)
CGY: Blake Coleman (day-to-day)
CAR: Shayne Gostisbehere (day-to-day)
CHI: Frank Nazar (could return Thursday), Andre Burakovsky (day-to-day, illness and family matter), Teuvo Teravainen (no clear update, assumed to be day-to-day)
COL: Valeri Nichushkin (expected back tonight), Devon Toews (could return as early as this weekend), Gabriel Landeskog (“a ways out” still as of today, but initial timeline suggests he should be back still before the break)
CBJ: Mason Marchment (skating, but “a couple weeks away”), Denton Mateychuk (nearing return)
DAL: Mikko Rantanen (day-to-day, illness), Lian Bichsel (skating, through seven weeks of initial 6-8 week timeline)
EDM: Leon Draisaitl (expected back later this week), Kasperi Kapanen (“out a week” as of Tuesday)
FLA: Brad Marchand (nearing return)
LAK: Drew Doughty (day-to-day, illness), Anze Kopitar (nearing return), Trevor Moore (nearing return), Darcy Kuemper (day-to-day)
MIN: Matt Boldy (should be back next week), Joel Eriksson Ek (nearing return), Marcus Johansson (nearing return)
MTL: Patrik Laine (nearing return), Alexandre Texier (day-to-day)
NSH: None
NJD: Luke Hughes (dislocated shoulder, timeline unclear)
NYI: Bo Horvat (could be back Saturday)
NYR: None
OTT: Linus Ullmark (could return at any point, not sure that he will though)
PHI: Dan Vladar (nearing return)
PIT: Erik Karlsson (nearing return)
SJS: None
SEA: None
STL: Robert Thomas (could be back by end of next week), Oskar Sundqvist (no clear timeline with deep cut on ankle), Mathieu Joseph (day-to-day)
TBL: Victor Hedman (still expected back before Olympics), Ryan McDonagh (getting closer), Brayden Point (no update, still not ruled out for Olympics), Anthony Cirelli (not expected to miss any time)
TOR: William Nylander (no timeline, not expected to be a long absence), Anthony Stolarz (on conditioning stint, back shortly)
UTA: None
VAN: Marco Rossi (another 2-3 weeks, very unlikely he will play before break but not ruled out)
VGK: None
WSH: Tom Wilson (has been day-to-day over two weeks now, should be back soon)
WPG: Neal Pionk (still week-to-week, no clear timeline)

________________________________________

Player Props to Watch – Prediction Markets Enter the Board

One of the biggest upgrades to Betstamp PRO is the addition of Kalshi prediction market odds directly into the prop screen — meaning you can now see how prediction markets and sportsbooks are pricing the same outcomes side by side.

A great example is RJ Harvey’s rushing yards (NE @ DEN). Traditional books are mostly clustered around 42.5 yards, while Kalshi is trading 49.5 — nearly a full touchdown of separation in the underlying expectation. That’s not noise. That’s two different markets expressing two very different opinions.

Looking at the Kalshi orderbook and line history, the Under 49.5 has been consistently bid, while the sports betting market never followed the move up. In other words, the prediction market is implying a materially higher median outcome than sportsbooks are willing to hang — and Betstamp PRO now lets you see that disagreement instantly, in the same screen.

This is the real value of integrating prediction markets: you’re no longer just comparing book vs book. You’re comparing sportsbooks vs prediction markets — two completely different liquidity pools, two different types of participants, and often two different opinions about the same player.

Get the Betstamp PRO Props screen 50% off TODAY.

Lines subject to change.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

PredictionData.io 
Building in prediction markets? Stop duct-taping data together. Ship faster with one unified API for sportsbook and prediction market data. See the API.
 

Betstamp PRO Props 50% Off 
Win more player props at scale with true market pricing across 200+ feeds, alt lines, and every major sport. Stop guessing. Start betting with real market data. APPLY NOW.
 

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Injuries We are Watching for Championship Weekend

Denver - QB Bo Nix (Season Over), WR  Pat Bryant (Left Game), WR  Troy Franklin (Left Game), C Alex Forsyth (Left Game), LB Drew Sanders (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Rams - CB Emmanuel Forbes (Left Game)
New England - CB Carlton Davis (Left Game), S Craig Woodson (Left Game), RB Terrell Jennings (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - RB Zach Charbonnet (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Left Game), OT Josh Jones (Injured Inactive)

________________________________________
 

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Injury Reports for Divisional Weekend as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. 

Buffalo at Denver (Saturday)
Buffalo - RB Ty Johnson DNP, TE Dalton Kincaid Limited, EDGE Greg Rousseau Limited, EDGE A.J. Epenesa Limited, LB Terrel Bernard Limited, LB Matt Milano Limited, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Maxwell Hairston DNP, S Jordan Poyer Out, WR Curtis Samuel Full (Working back from I.R.), DT Ed Oliver Limited (Working back from I.R.), S Damar Hamlin Full (Working back from I.R.)
Denver - LB Dre Greenlaw Limited, LB Drew Sanders Limited (Working back from I.R.)

San Francisco at Seattle (Saturday Nighter)
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall Limited, OG Dominick Puni Limited, EDGE Keion White Limited, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos Limited, LB Dee Winters Limited, LB Luke Gifford DNP, S Ji'Ayir Brown Out, LB Fred Warner Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Seattle - OT Charles Cross Limited, OT Josh Jones DNP, CB Tariq Woolen Limited, TE Elijah Arroyo Full (Working back from I.R.)

Houston at New England (Sunday)
Houston - RB Jawhar Jordan Limited, WR Nico Collins DNP, WR Justin Watson DNP, OT Trent Brown DNP, OG Tytus Howard Limited, OG Ed Ingram Limited, EDGE Denico Autry DNP, DT Sheldon Rankins Limited, LB Azeez Al-Shaiir Limited, CB Kamari Lassiter Limited
New England - OT Morgan Moses DNP, OT Thayer Munford Jr. DNP, TE Hunter Henry Limited, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, EDGE Anfernee Jennings Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga Limited, CB Christian Gonzalez Limited, RB Terrell Jennings (Working back from I.R.)

Green Bay at Chicago (Sunday Nighter)
L.A. Rams - OG Kevin Dotson Limited, NT Poona Ford Limited
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR D.J. Moore Limited, CB Nick McCloud DNP, OT Braxton Jones Full (Working back from I.R.)
 

________________________________________

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts on the NHL betting market
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) In last week’s newsletter I called into question the efficiency of the NHL market. Every day I’m given new examples that strengthen my belief in its inefficiency, but there’s one that especially stood out from the past week that I’d like to touch on here.

Connor Bedard made his return to the Blackhawks lineup on Friday. There was speculation he could return that night to face the Capitals, prompting some early Chicago money. It was eventually confirmed at morning skate, as the Hawks took even more money, moving from a peak of +132 overnight to as short as +107, eventually settling at +110 ahead of pregame warmups – a nearly 5% move.

On Monday, Frank Seravalli reported at 7:51pm ET that Bedard would miss Chicago’s game against Edmonton with an illness – a complete surprise with no previous warning after he was a full participant at morning skate. The Oilers crawled on Pinny, ever so slowly, from -153 to -165. There was even buyback on the Blackhawks mixed in there.

To summarize: on Friday the market believes Bedard is worth 5%. On Monday, less than 2%. Okay.

2.) Been seeing a lot of “Leafs are back” on my timeline, in the media, and in the Hammer Daily chat. They’re 8-1-2 in their last 11 since firing assistant coach Marc Savard, who was apparently doing the worst job anyone has ever done in running a power play given the immediate returns that unit has seen since his departure. I’m not sure how much I’m buying into this winning run, though. The win over the Avalanche on Monday is one for the mantle, although that easily could (and should) have been a loss given how that one played out – Colorado more than doubled them in expected goals at 5-on-5. The other seven wins? They beat Pittsburgh (bad), reeling Senators and Devils teams with miserable goaltending, a last-place (at the time) Jets team that was in the second half of a back-to-back (also their third game in four nights), a significantly depleted Panthers roster, a free-falling Flyers team (in overtime), and the current last-placed Canucks. Now you can only beat who is in front of you, but it’s how they’re winning these games that has me most skeptical.

Over this 11-game span they have an expected goal share of 45% (26th in the NHL, just below the Jets and above the Kraken). They are 26th in shot attempts/60 and 30th in shot attempts against/60, leaving then 28th in shot attempt share, just below the Flames and Rangers. Their 41.5% share of High Danger Chances is 30th in the NHL, just below the Blues and Jets. They’re 31st in expected goals for/60, but goalies have posted a collective minus-8.73 goals saved above expected against them during this run so we haven’t noticed. Meanwhile, Toronto’s goalies have combined to save 8.98 goals above expected over that same span – a nearly 18-goal difference between them. They’re also getting unsustainably great returns on special teams, where they’ve posted a 96.2 Net PK% (first in the NHL) and a 28.0 Net PP% (seventh in the NHL) over that span.

Water always finds its level, as they say. The Leafs are better than they showed in the first two months, but nowhere close to as good as their record over the last three weeks. The reality is they fall somewhere in between, but the underlying metrics dating all the way back to last season are rather uninspiring, and I’d say they’re still closer to the team they were in the first two months than what they’ve showed the past three weeks. FanDuel has them +135 to make the playoffs (42.6%), which I think is pretty close to fair. 

3.) There are a number of to make/miss playoff numbers in market that I don’t think are anywhere close to fair, though. I haven’t given out many bets in this column of late, so let’s change that now. Here are some playoff prices at FanDuel I love at current (as always, do shop around):

-Washington Capitals to make the playoffs -210
-Utah Mammoth to make the playoffs -155
-Winnipeg Jets to make the playoffs +380
-Seattle Kraken to miss the playoffs -210
-New Jersey Devils to miss the playoffs -200
-Philadelphia Flyers to miss the playoffs -145

4.) There’s a lot of blame to go around in New Jersey for the current predicament the Devils find themselves in – a team most had comfortably penciled into a playoff spot but now finds its season circling the drain, again. One of the biggest, in my opinion, is how poorly the team has drafted. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier were both consensus first-overall picks, so there’s no credit awarded there. Jesper Bratt is their only real draft hit (162nd overall in 2016). Beyond that, returns have been terrible from their draft classes.

The 2017-2020 classes were especially bad. In 2017 they got nothing from their 10 picks after taking Hischier first overall (they took Jesper Boqvist at 36, just a couple picks before Jason Robertson and Eetu Luostarinen). They missed on 2018 17th-overall pick Ty Smith and traded away the only other NHLers from that class (Akira Schmid, Yegor Sharangovich). In 2019, after taking Hughes first overall, they had six picks in rounds 2-4. Those players have combined to play 30 games for the Devils. In 2020 they took Alexander Holtz seventh overall. The next seven picks were Jack Quinn, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, Yaroslav Askarov, Anton Lundell, Seth Jarvis, and Dylan Holloway. They took Dawson Mercer that same year, who has been about their only “hit” in recent memory. They had four other picks from rounds 1-4 that year and only one of them has played games for the team – Nico Daws (53).

We’ll see what happens with 2021 fourth-overall pick Luke Hughes and 2022 second-overall pick Simon Nemec, but Hughes was just recently booed on home ice for how bad he’s been, and Nemec is struggling to put it all together. It’s really hard to find sustained success in this league when you have to constantly build out your roster through free agency and trades. Largely wasting all that draft capital from 2018-2020 is a huge reason the Devils are

5.) Quick hitters:

-Connor Hellebuyck in 13 starts since returning from injury: -4.53 GSAA (63rd in NHL), 3.53 GSAx (30th), .882 SV% (42nd), 3.01 GAA (t-45th)
-Pending UFA Alex Tuch is earning himself quite the payday. He’s seventh in the NHL in five-on-five points/60 this season
-No one has more five-on-five points since December 20th than… Juraj Slafkovsky
-Noah Dobson’s 21 five-on-five points are more than any Islanders player this season (Anders Lee and Matt Barzal are tied atop the team with 19 each)
-The catalyst behind the Ducks’ current 3-11-2 run? A league-worst (by a decent margin) .847 save percentage

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Suuma's Takeaways from Wild Card Weekend
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

49ers–Eagles: This Told Us More About Philly Than San Francisco

San Francisco survived Philadelphia despite losing George Kittle to a season-ending Achilles injury. Brock Purdy made a handful of quality throws, Kyle Shanahan dialed up some nice concepts, and while the run game struggled for long stretches, the 49ers still posted a 52% overall success rate and 55% success on early-down passes. That’s a functional offensive performance under difficult circumstances.

But the bigger takeaway isn’t about the Niners — it’s about the Eagles. San Francisco likely doesn’t win this game if Philadelphia’s offense doesn’t once again collapse under its own weight.

Per Jon Ledyard, Jalen Hurts was pressured on just 6 of 37 dropbacks — a 16% pressure rate — with an average time to throw of 4.37 seconds. That’s an absurdly clean pocket environment. And yet, the Eagles offense still went nowhere. A team simply cannot look that broken when the opposing pass rush is a non-factor.

Philadelphia failed to complete a single pass over 15 air yards against a Niners pass defense that has been bad all season and generated virtually no pressure in this game. That’s not about matchup or variance — it’s a structural offensive problem. This game confirmed everything we already knew about the Eagles offense, far more than it told us anything new about San Francisco.

________________________________________

Is This the Bills’ Year?

Buffalo handled Jacksonville with a solid EPA advantage, helped by two Trevor Lawrence interceptions — one of them tipped. On paper, this was a tricky matchup for the Bills because their run defense is legitimately shaky, and the Jaguars exploited that, running at a 57% success rate.

What’s interesting is how Jacksonville chose to attack. They ran efficiently, yet still leaned pass-heavy: 27 early-down passes vs just 17 early-down runs. It’s fair to wonder whether a more run-centric approach could have changed the outcome, because Buffalo couldn’t stop it.

Here’s the key point going forward: no other remaining AFC playoff team has Jacksonville’s kind of run-game diversity. Denver doesn’t. Pittsburgh doesn’t. Houston doesn’t. New England doesn’t. And Buffalo’s pass defense is getting healthier with the potential return of Maxwell Hairston and Terrel Bernard.

The Bills’ biggest defensive weakness might not get meaningfully stressed again until the Super Bowl. And when your quarterback is basically a cyborg, that’s often enough. Quietly, this might be Buffalo’s year.

________________________________________

The Rams Defense Is Becoming a Concern

Chris Shula deserves credit. He’s done impressive work all season with one of the cheapest defenses in the league, featuring only two former first-round picks — one of whom is already on his second team. For the first three months, the Rams defense punched far above its weight.

Lately, though, the cracks are showing.

Against Carolina, the Rams generated a 45% pressure rate on Bryce Young (per Next Gen Stats) — and still allowed the Panthers to move the ball and generate chunk plays. That disconnect shows up in the broader metrics: since Week 13, the Rams defense ranks 20th in EPA/play, but top -10 in success rate, despite playing four games against Carolina and Arizona.

The concern is the secondary. Injuries haven’t helped, but even accounting for that, the talent level on the back end may simply not be good enough. If pressure alone can’t consistently break offenses — even weak ones — the margin disappears quickly in January.

That puts even more weight on Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. If the defense can’t hold up, the Rams’ playoff ceiling depends entirely on offensive perfection — and that’s a dangerous way to live.

________________________________________
 

Injuries We are Watching for Divisional Weekend
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), RB Ty Johnson (Injured Inactive), WR Gabe Davis (Season Over), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Maxwell Hairston (Injured Inactive), S Jordan Poyer (Left Game), S Damar Hamlin (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - OT Ozzy Trapilo (Season Over), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Injured Inactive), DT Andrew Billings (Left Game), LB T.J. Edwards (Season Over), CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Injured Inactive), OT Braxton Jones (Working back from I.R.)
Denver (Returning from Bye) - DT John Franklin-Myers, LB Dre Greenlaw, S P.J. Locke
Houston - TBD Playing Tonight
L.A Rams - WR Jordan Whittington (Injured Inactive), TE Terrance Ferguson (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Injured Inactive), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Left Game)
New England - NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), CB Christian Gonzalez (Left Game)
Pittsburgh - TBD Playing Tonight
San Francisco - WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), TE George Kittle (Season Over), LB Dee Winters (Injured Inactive), LB Luke Gifford (Injured Inactive), S Ji'Ayir Brown (Left Game)
Seattle (Returning from Bye) - OT Charles Cross, S Coby Bryant, TE Elijah Arroyo (Working back from I.R.)

________________________________________
 

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Circa Million Superteam Final Results

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

________________________________________

Injury Reports for Wild Card Weekend as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

L.A. Rams at Carolina (Saturday)
L.A. Rams- WR Jordan Whittington DNP, TE Terrance Ferguson DNP, TE Tyler Higbee Limited, OG Kevin Dotson DNP, DT Braden Fiske Limited, CB Josh Wallace DNP
Carolina- OG Robert Hunt Full (Working back from I.R.), OG  Chandler Zavala Full (Working back from I.R.)

Green Bay at Chicago (Saturday Nighter)
Green Bay- QB Malik Willis Limited, WR Dontayvion Wicks Limited, OT Zach Tom Limited, S Javon Bullard Limited
Chicago- WR Rome Odunze Limited, WR D.J. Moore Limited, OT Ozzy Trapilo Limited, EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DNP, CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson DNP, CB Jaylon Jones Limited, CB Kyler Gordon Limited (Working back from I.R.), OT Braxton Jones Full (Working back from I.R.)

Buffalo at Jacksonville
Buffalo - RB Ty Johnson DNP, WR Josh Palmer DNP, TE Dalton Kincaid Limited, DT DaQuan Jones Limited, LB Terrel Bernard DNP, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Maxwell Hairston Likely Out, S Jordan Poyer Limited, K Matt Prater DNP, S Damar Hamlin Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville- OT Cole Van Lanen DNP, OG Patrick Mekari Limited, CB Greg Newsome II Limited, CB Montaric Brown Limited

San Francisco at Philadelphia
San Francisco- WR Ricky Pearsall DNP, TE George Kittle Limited, OT Trent Williams DNP, EDGE Keion White DNP, DL Yetur Gross-Matos Limited, DT Jordan Elliott Limited, LB Dee Winters DNP, LB Luke Gifford Limited
Philadelphia- TE Dallas Goedart Limited, TE Grant Calcaterra DNP, OT Lane Johnson Limited, OG Brett Toth DNP, DT Jalen Carter Limited, LB Nakobe Dean Limited, S Marcus Epps Limited, EDGE Azeez Ojulari Full (Working back from I.R.)

L.A. Chargers at New England (Sunday Nighter)
L.A. Chargers- RB Omarion Hampton DNP, OT Jamaree Salyer Limited, OT Austin Deculus DNP, EDGE Bud Dupree DNP, CB Donte Jackson Limited, CB/S Elijah Molden Limited
New England- OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, OG Jared Wilson Limited, EDGE Harold Landry Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga DNP, LB Robert Spillane Limited

Houston at Pittsburgh (Monday Nighter)
Houston- OT Trent Brown, CB Kamari Lassiter
Pittsburgh- Nothing of Note
 

________________________________________

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

As we've crossed the midpoint of the season this past weekend, I took a deep dive into my betting results from the first half. It’s the most money I’ve ever won over a half-season betting the NHL – not just in total dollars, but in ROI as well. As I continue to scale up and bet more than ever before, I’d expect that ROI to take a hit. That hasn’t happened. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite, and to a rather surprising degree, despite a larger share of my money being bet later than ever before.

There have been some massive changes to my betting habits this season. I started to incorporate them last year, but this season they’ve completely taken over. In the past, the majority of my betting would be done by mid-afternoon Eastern Time. I’d bet my first round of money on openers (typically my highest volume), another round during morning skates for the east coast games (between 10:30-11am), and another during morning skates for the west coast games (between 1-2pm). That would pretty much be the extent of it. I’d have some bets during warmups if I was waiting for a player’s status or a starting goalie confirmation, but for the most part my betting was done early.

This season, my betting has been far more aggressive and reactive. For starters, I’m betting a lot fewer openers, which, for the most part, are as good as ever (at sharp books, not rec shops). Instead, I’m betting way more, way later than ever before. So much of my volume this season has come from betting games I had no interest in at open. In other words, a lot of my bets are me fading big money that enters the market, creating numbers I never imagined would be available.

A lot of that comes down to how little two-way action exists on gameday. Once a side or total moves in the morning, the market acts as if it’s already “the winner.” People either chase the steam, pushing it further, or sit out because they missed the best of the number. There’s no market resistance. Every night, we see several big, late moves on a side or total in the 30 minutes before puck drop – often on a number that’s already been bet all day, or hasn’t moved at all. I find myself fading a lot of these moves, simply because they make no sense and create unexpected value on the other side. They aren’t driven by surprise goalie confirmations or injuries – not that the market really even reacts to injuries unless it’s a star player, anyways. Sometimes, numbers even steam late despite injury news that should logically draw money on the other side.

Abandoning my belief in market efficiency has been one of the biggest and most uncomfortable adjustments I’ve had to make over the past year. It’s been a gradual process, but I’ve fully come around over the past three months. This is the most confident I’ve ever been fading the market, the least I’ve cared what others are betting (outside of trying to study it for my own market entry), and certainly the least I’ve paid attention to CLV. It’s also the least CLV has ever mattered to my results. All of those points have resulted in me having some uncomfortably big positions on games way more often than ever before. There are several nights a week where I wind up with a very large position on a game simply because the market moves against a bet I’ve already made, and because I no longer care, I’ll keep adding to it. This isn’t just my opinion, either. I’ve spoken to prominent people on both sides of the counter in the NHL betting space, and there have been several mentions of the fact that there are more perplexing line moves this year than in years past. I don’t have a reason as to why, and neither do they. It’s something I’m still working on trying to understand.

Just looking at the past few days alone provides a bunch of examples. On Saturday, I bet the Senators at -125 after Winnipeg money came in, then added at -114 after more Jets money flooded the market. It closed -117 and the Sens won 4-2. I also had over 6 -115 in Lightning/Sharks. That got bet up to 6.5 -103 overnight before coming all the way back to 6 -106, where I added more. It closed 6 -108 and finished 7-3. On Sunday, I bet Habs/Stars over 6 -120 close to open, then added at 6 -112 very late after the under got smacked before post. It finished 4-3. On Tuesday, I bet Stars/Hurricanes over 6 -113 in the afternoon, after betting it at -115 nearly 24 hours earlier. It touched 6.5 -102 overnight before a flood of gameday under money came in with no resistance. It finished 6-3. Also on Tuesday, the Predators and Blue Jackets continued to take money throughout the day. At 7:30pm in the #NHL channel in the Hammer Discord – pretty close to puck drop – I posted that I was betting the Oilers -140 and Sharks +117. Less than an hour later, now incredibly close to puck drop, more money came in on the opposite sides, and I posted that I was adding more on the Oilers at -135 and Sharks +125. The Oilers won 6-2 and the Sharks won 5-2. Sure, I’m cherry picking, and they aren’t all winners, but I am ending up with huge positions on these and way more of them are winning than losing. Sure, three months is too small a sample, but my record on these has been absurdly good. I’m sure regression will hit eventually, but to what degree is the question. A month ago I said the same thing: “I’m running way too good, it has to turn soon.” It has only got better since.

So, why is this happening?

It’s not because people betting the NHL now are suddenly dumb, although I do believe some money being thrown around isn’t very sharp. One big reason I believe we’re getting some nonsensical moves near post is that one group behind them is opening live-betting opportunities for itself. The NHL market is not like the NFL. You can significantly shift the closing line with a couple of 25k clicks near post. For a group with a massive bankroll, that’s nothing, and what they are then left with is a live line that’s anchored to that closing price, where they can get down closer to six figures a click on VIP accounts at rec books. This opens up great betting opportunities for those of us who don’t have bankrolls big enough to fake an entire market near post.

You can also very easily fake the entire market early on gameday with a few 3k max clicks at a sharp book, sending a line flying for you to bet the other side on PPH. That doesn’t explain the lack of buyback, but again, in my experience the NHL is by far the least efficient of the efficient markets. It’s not like the NFL, CFB, or NBA. Limits are lower at sharper books and there’s way less competition, with a lot of pros simply focusing resources elsewhere. The groups who shaped the market and closing lines five years ago are all gone. The landscape is a lot more open for bettors, and in my experience not all of the new money is particularly sharp. I know of at least one prominent group that doesn’t care about players when pricing games. It’s hard to be efficient when you don’t pay attention to who is in and out of the lineup. I’ve brought up specific examples of this in past articles, where key player injuries are being completely ignored in market. I just can’t believe in the efficiency or legitimacy of the market given all these factors.

It took me a lot of time to arrive here. I had to completely change my view of the market and my approach to betting into it. I abandoned my belief in market efficiency and stopped fearing opposing money. With that, I gained a ton of confidence in my own stuff, and that’s been the biggest catalyst for my success this season. In past years, I would not have dreamed of adding to a position of mine the market disagreed with. In fact, in many instances I would have probably tried to dump it. Now I’m not only content keeping it but aggressively adding to it wherever possible. I don’t know if this is sustainable. And I don’t know if this is even newsworthy, or just noise from a small sample. This has simply been my experience this season, and my approach as someone who has been quite involved betting the NHL for a while now.

I am definitely not telling you to go out there and fade every big line move. I’m also not saying every big move in the NHL market is bad, or fake. I agree with many of them. I am simply telling you the root of my success this season has come from taking a stance, procuring my own source of truth, and developing conviction in my process. Time will tell how well this holds.

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Rob and Clive's Early Leans for Wild Card Weekend

Rob:
Nothing

Clive:
Nothing

Both:
Nothing

To watch their game by game analysis of Wild Card Weekend Click Here:

________________________________________

Injuries We are Watching for Wild Card Weekend
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.
*Note some teams made healthy players inactive for Week 18. We have done our best to capture guys who had an injury, even if they're likely to return for playoffs

Buffalo - EDGE Joey Bosa (Injured Inactive), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Injured Inactive), CB Maxwell Hairston (Left Game), S Jordan Poyer (Injured Inactive), K Matt Prater (Left Game)
Carolina - DT Tershawn Warton (Injured Inactive), DT Bobby Brown III (Left Game), LB Claudin Cherelus (Injured Inactive), OG Robert Hunt (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Injured Inactive)
Denver (Bye Week) - DT John Franklin-Myers (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Injured Inactive), S P.J. Locke (Left Game)
Green Bay - WR Dontayvion Wicks (Injured Inactive), CB Bo Melton (Left Game), S Javon Bullard (Left Game)
Houston - OT Trent Brown (Injured Inactive), CB Kamari Lassiter (Injured Inactive)
Jacksonville - OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive)
L.A Chargers - OT Jamaree Salyer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Bud Dupree (Left Game), CB Donte Jackson (Left Game)
L.A Rams - WR Davante Adams (Injured Inactive), WR Jordan Whittington (Left Game), TE Terrance Ferguson (Injured Inactive), OG Kevin Dotson (Injured Inactive), CB Josh Wallace (Injured Inactive), CB/S Quentin Lake (Working back from I.R.)
New England - OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Harold Landry (Injured Inactive), NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive)
Philadelphia - TE Dallas Goedart (Injured Inactive), OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (Injured Inactive), DT Jalen Carter (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Injured Inactive), S Marcus Epps (Injured Inactive)
Pittsburgh - Nothing of Note
San Francisco - QB Brock Purdy (Stinger/Won't miss game), WR Ricky Pearsall (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Williams (Injured Inactive), LB Tatum Bethune (Left Game), LB Dee Winters (Left Game)
Seattle (Bye Week) - OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), S Coby Bryant (Injured Inactive)

________________________________________
 

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Year in Review

I haven’t written a pure betting newsletter in a few months, and I was reflecting on my 2025 betting year, and thought it would make for a good one. Overall, 2025 was quite successful for me. It was not as good as 2024, but it was my second most successful year betting. It felt a lot more challenging than 2024, but I think that’s mostly because we had some significant downswings, which always outweigh the big upswings emotionally. 2024 was far more consistent.

Prediction Markets:

2025 will go down in history as a defining year in betting, and that is because of prediction markets. It’s crazy to think that my first bet placed on a prediction market was on January 14, 2025. PMs existed in 2024, but mostly as political betting websites, and they weren’t really on my radar. Now they’re everything, and they look to be the main focus of most serious bettors for years to come.

One thing I already knew, but that was very much reinforced for me in 2025, is that trying to predict where the sports betting landscape is going past a twelve-month horizon is incredibly difficult, and likely not worth my time. Either that, or I am very bad at predicting where sports betting is going due to my warped view of only really talking to winning bettors. I remember in 2021 I won what I considered at the time a really solid amount of money betting, and in my head I thought, “I’ll never be able to repeat that—the market simply just won’t let me.” Now, in 2025, being a winning sports bettor is very much still a thing, and for many it’s a better landscape than pretty much anytime since the early legalization boom.

For the first five to six months of the year, you could essentially put up any prop as an arb to the market, only by 1c, so you were essentially just getting the price you’d be betting at FD/DK/Builder and get it filled for nearly infinite liquidity on PMs. Not only that, but Captain Jack made a video about how this person (me, and many others I’m sure) posting $20k of liquidity on an NBA prop was likely not sharp! Sadly, the Oddjammers have wizened up to that gambit and it doesn’t really work anymore, but that would have been unimaginable in 2024.

Even now, people on Twitter are regularly posting $50k+ positions on the most random shit imaginable. Flup had a fucking million dollars on ANTHONY JOSHUA TO BEAT JAKE PAUL. That sentence would have melted your brain in 2021.

There are money-making opportunities on PMs that would never have been thought possible 18 months ago. This isn’t me trying to shill, but I do think if you commit your time to who is going to go to Taylor Swift’s wedding, you should be able to get in good quite easily.

SGPs Are Dead:

SGPs are like your uncle who told you in 2017 that if you learn to code you’ll be set for your whole life. I’m sure someone reading this who is still crushing SGPs is probably laughing at me, and I still do bet SGPs decently often, but the idea that SGPs are where you should focus is absolutely not the case anymore, in my opinion. DK will take nothing on an SGP with any under prop in it, and FD SGP prices are extremely difficult to beat. There are still some great spots, and SGPs remain solid for account health, but the truly nutty stuff is mostly dead.

A great example is the Mikal Bridges or Draymond Green games, and what would happen if those occurred today. Mikal Bridges a few years ago only played the 1Q, and Draymond Green checked out after one second because Klay Thompson was coming back. Today, you could maybe get a 5-1 or 6-1 parlay on those guys’ unders in SGPs. If it was very close to gametime, maybe you could do better on FD, but very few places are offering alt unders anymore. At the time, you could take Mikal Bridges under 11.5 points when his line was 25.5, parlay it with under 1.5 assists and 1.5 rebounds, and get a 100-1 bet easily. Those days are no longer here.

Market Efficiency:

Every year I try hard to reflect on how much more efficient the market has gotten in the last twelve months. When I started betting on NBA sides, each season lines would get much more efficient. Books used to miss very basic stuff about players resting on B2Bs, or a player being obviously in while listed questionable. I assumed that this trend would continue linearly until the market was just too efficient and I couldn’t win anymore. I’m sure that day will come, but it has been far from linear. I don’t think the NBA prop or side market is much more efficient in 2025 than it was in 2024. Once all the really low-hanging-fruit stuff got picked up, the rate at which the market gained efficiency became far slower, and I haven’t noticed much of a change in the past 24 months. The big exception being WNBA props, where I think ETR releasing projections made the market way more efficient from 2024 to 2025.

Overall, I think it’s a great time to be a winning bettor, and I don’t think I would have said that after any other year of my gambling journey. Naturally, that probably means that some unforeseen market force is about to come in and dry up my edge.

Good luck to everyone in 2026!

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more:JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Suuma's Takeaways from Week 17
By: Suuma, NFL Originator

The 49ers offense is a juggernaut

This offense is terrifying. If Pearsall stays healthy, San Francisco might be the best team in the NFC after the Rams. They’re layered, explosive, and ruthless once they find rhythm. Everything feels inevitable. However, they have the worst defense among all playoff teams.

________________________________________

Bears: I’m warming up to Caleb (a bit)

I’m more on board than I was earlier. The highlight plays are becoming more frequent, and more importantly, he’s not making many mistakes. That said: Ben Johnson’s clock management at the end vs SF was horrific, and this still feels like a potential one-and-done playoff team. The defense is bad — the pass rush against the Niners looked preseason-level. Odunze is dealing with a stress fracture, Luther Burden got carted off with a quad (doesn’t seem serious), and the margin for error is thin.

________________________________________

Steelers are toast

You need extreme voodoo to win anything meaningful with this version of the Steelers. Nothing more to add.

________________________________________


Stafford MVP discourse is weird to me… but

I’m wrapping my head around how Stafford can win MVP while the Rams are hovering around the 5-seed - or potentially land on the 6th seed. That said, it doesn’t matter what I think — it matters what the voters think. And right now, the market believes that the voters think Stafford deserves it (-250). Outside of raw volume stats, Maye has everything: division title, better seeding, EPA/play, and clearly more value relative to his supporting cast. I get him not playing the strongest schedule and not getting the 1st seed - with the Chargers most likely to rest starters in some capacity against Denver, the Pats will stick to the 2nd seed.

Still… I can absolutely see voters giving it to Stafford. He’s the favorite for a reason. The Rams are the best team. But Maye deserves it. And I know I might be irrational.

________________________________________

Redraft: Shough and Ward go 1–2

If we’re redrafting today, Shough and Cam Ward go first and second. Shough has been incredible. Against the Titans, to quote Saints beat writer Nick Underhill: the Saints were missing WR2, WR3, RB1–RB3, RG, C, TE2 — and TE3 got hurt midgame. Didn’t matter. He’s now neck-and-neck with Tet McMillan in the OROY race (+110), sits at 5–3 as a starter, and could finish 6–3.

Forget the box score — watch him. Accuracy, pocket feel, aggression downfield, tight-window throws, real mobility. It looks like the Saints found their guy.

At the same time, Ward has shown enough freakish tape to still justify taking a QB early. The Titans coaching has been horrific, the environment awful — but Ward has made throws maybe five QBs in the league can make. Get him competent coaching and demand consistency. Also worth remembering who he’s throwing to: Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm, Chig Okonkwo, Van Jefferson. And his fired HC looked like the worst in football.

________________________________________

Texans: offense still a concern, but…

The offensive issues are still very real. The Texans caught the Chargers early, but after the second drive, they only managed to achieve two short field-goal-scores. Over the past three quarters, CJ Stroud completed five passes that actually gained positive yardage. That said, I actually like a Wild Card matchup vs Baltimore. The Ravens rank 30th in my pressure above expectation metric — that’s a matchup Houston can survive.

________________________________________

Bills warning sign

If Josh Allen’s foot isn’t close to 100%, the Bills are cooked. The defense looked solid, but the Eagles offense was unserious and ultra-conservative again. Hurts had zero completions in the second half.

________________________________________

Seahawks: offense could get them bounced

Seattle could be one-and-done if the offense doesn’t clean it up — unless they draw Carolina. You can’t live on 3–5 turnover-worthy plays per game in the playoffs.

________________________________________

Bucs: it won’t happen, but they need a new HC

It won’t happen, but Bowles should be gone. He’s been carried by Baker and Coen for three years. The defense was never actually good. This collapse was exactly what people feared: lifeless, broken, done. 1–7 in their last eight, with the lone win a shaky one against the equally lifeless Cardinals. This team is finished.

________________________________________

Bet note

Give me Panthers +3 / +3.5 next week (likely) without Jamel Dean and Haason Reddick.

________________________________________

Rob and George's Early Leans for Week 18

Rob:
Cincinnati -7 (-115) vs. Cleveland

George:
Nothing

Both:
Carolina +3 vs. Tampa Bay
Tennessee/Jacksonville Over 45.5 (-115)
Philadelphia -7.5 vs. Washington

To watch their game by game analysis of Week 18 Click Here:

________________________________________

Injuries We are Watching for Week 18
*Note for teams returning from bye, the list is made up of the injuries they had going into the bye week.

Arizona - OG Evan Brown (Inactive/Personal), WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Left Game), CB Kei'Trel Clark (Injured Inactive), S Budda Baker (Injured Inactive), S Kitan Crawford (Left Game)
Atlanta - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Baltimore - QB Lamar Jackson (Injured Inactive), DT Taven Bryan (Working back from I.R.)
Buffalo - QB Josh Allen (Banged Up), TE Dalton Kincaid (Injured Inactive), OT Spencer Brown (Blurry vision), DT DaQuan Jones (Injured Inactive), DT Jordan Phillips (Injured Inactive), LB Terrel Bernard (Left Game), S Jordan Poyer (Injured Inactive), K Matt Prater (Injured Inactive)
Carolina - TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (Season over), DT Turk Wharton (Injured Inactive), LB Claudin Cherelus (Left Game), OG Robert Hunt (Working back from I.R.)
Chicago - WR Rome Odunze (Injured Inactive), Olamide Zaccheaus (Injured Inactive), EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Left Game), LB Noah Sewell (Season likely over)
Cincinnati - EDGE Joseph Ossai (Injured Inactive)
Cleveland - TE David Njoku (Injured Inactive), TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Left Game), OG Teven Jenkins (Left Game), CB Myles Harden (Injured Inactive)
Dallas - RB Javonte Williams (Left Game), WR Ryan Flournoy (Injured Inactive), TE Jake Ferguson (Left Game), LB DeMarvion Overshown (Injured Inactive), CB Caelen Carson (Injured Inactive)
Denver - WR Pat Bryant (Injured Inactive), LB Dre Greenlaw (Injured Inactive), S Talanoa Hufanga (Left Game)
Detroit - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Left Game), OT Taylor Decker (Injured Inactive), OG Trystan Colon (Injured Inactive), DT Alim McNeill (Left Game), LB Alex Anzalone (Left Game), CB/S Avonte Maddox (Left Game), S Thomas Harper (Injured Inactive), OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Green Bay - QB Jordan Love (Injured Inactive), QB Malik Willis (Left Game), WR Dontayvion Wicks (Left Game), OT Zach Tom (Injured Inactive), CB Nate Hobbs (Left Game), CB Kamal Hadden (Season over)
Houston - OT Trent Brown (Injured Inactive), OT Aireontae Ersery (Injured Inactive)
Indianapolis - C Tanner Bortolini (Injured Inactive), CB Sauce Gardner (Season likely over), QB Anthony Richardson Sr. (Working back from I.R.)
Jacksonville - RB Bhayshul Tuten (Injured Inactive), OG Patrick Mekari (Injured Inactive), C Robert Hainsey (Injured Inactive)
Kansas City - OT Jaylon Moore (Injured Inactive), DT Derrick Nnadi (Injured Inactive)
Las Vegas - QB Geno Smith (Season likely Over), OG Dylan Parham (Left Game), DT Adam Butler (Left Game), OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)
L.A Chargers - RB Kimani Vidal (Injured Inactive), RB Hassan Haskins (Left Game), OT Jamaree Salyer (Injured Inactive), LB Denzel Perryman (Suspension Week 18), CB Benjamin St-Juste (Injured Inactive), S R.J. Mickens (Injured Inactive)
L.A Rams - TBD (Playing Tonight)
Miami - WR Jaylen Waddle (Banged Up), C Aaron Brewer (Injured Inactive), EDGE Chop Robinson (Left Game), LB Jordyn Brooks (Left Game), LB K.J. Britt (Left Game), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Injured Inactive)
Minnesota - QB J.J. McCarthy (Injured Inactive), RB Jordan Mason (Injured Inactive), TE T.J. Hockenson (Injured Inactive), OT Brian O'Neill (Injured Inactive), S Theo Jackson (Left Game)
New England - WR Kayshon Boutte (Injured Inactive), OG Jared Wilson (Injured Inactive), EDGE Harold Landry (Injured Inactive), NT Khyiris Tonga (Injured Inactive), LB Robert Spillane (Injured Inactive), DT Milton Williams (Working back from I.R.)
New Orleans - RB Alvin Kamara (Injured Inactive), TE Jack Stoll (Left Game), OG Cesar Ruiz (Injured Inactive), DT Bryan Bresee (Injured Inactive)
New York Giants - TE Theo Johnson (Injured Inactive), DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Injured Inactive), CB Cor’Dale Flott (Injured Inactive), S Jevon Holland (Left Game)
New York Jets - QB Tyrod Taylor (Injured Inactive), RB Breece Hall (Left Game), RB Isaiah Davis (Left Game), TE Mason Taylor (Injured Inactive), CB Qwan'tez Stiggers (Left Game)
Philadelphia - OT Lane Johnson (Injured Inactive), LB Nakobe Dean (Injured Inactive), CB Michael Carter (Inactive/Personal)
Pittsburgh - WR D.K. Metcalf (Suspension Week 18), WR Calvin Austin III (Injured Inactive), TE Darnell Washington (Broken Arm), OG Isaac Seumalo (Injured Inactive), EDGE T.J. Watt (Injured Inactive), CB James Pierre (Injured Inactive), CB Brandin Echols (Injured Inactive)
San Francisco - TE George Kittle (Injured Inactive), OT Trent Williams (Left Game), CB Renardo Green (Injured Inactive), CB Upton Stout (Left Game)
Seattle - WR Rashid Shaheed (Left Game), OT Charles Cross (Injured Inactive), S Coby Bryant (Injured Inactive)
Tampa Bay - OT Tristan Wirfs (Injured Inactive), EDGE Haason Reddick (Left Game), EDGE Anthony Nelson (Injured Inactive), CB Jamel Dean (Left Game), DT Calijah Kancey (Working back from I.R.)
Tennessee - WR Van Jefferson (Season over), EDGE Arden Key (Left Game), CB Jalyn Armour-Davis (Season over), EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo (Working back from I.R.)
Washington - QB Marcus Mariota (Injured Inactive), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Injured Inactive), OT Laremy Tunsil (Injured Inactive), C Tyler Biadasz (Left Game), DT Daron Payne (Injured Inactive)


________________________________________
 

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today: https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com 

Circa Million Superteam Update

For updates on the Contests and to check out all the good things happening at Circa Sports click here

________________________________________

Injury Reports for Week 17 as of Wednesday Evening

***We avoid posting players who logged a full practice (Unless working back from injury), or missed due to illness. We also focus on players who regularly play and rotate in. We won't post a back-up's status unless part of a cluster of injuries including the starters. The Monday Night Football game won't have a practice report as those aren't due until Thursday. We will however reiterate the players who either didn't play last week or got injured in the game.

Dallas at Washington (Thursday)
Dallas- WR Ryan Flournoy Questionable/2x DNP, OG Tyler Booker Questionable, DT Quinnen Williams Questionable, LB DeMarvion Overshown Out, CB Caelen Carson Questionable
Washington- QB Marcus Mariota Out, OT Laremy Tunsil Out, DT Daron Payne Out

Detroit at Minnesota (Thursday)
Detroit- RB David Montgomery Questionable, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Questionable, OT Taylor Decker Questionable, OG Christian Mahogany Questionable, OG Trystan Colon Questionable, EDGE Marcus Davenport Questionable, EDGE Al-Quadin Muhammad Questionable, DT Alim McNeill Questionable, CB Amik Robertson Questionable, CB/S Avonte Maddox Out, OT Giovanni Manu (Working back from I.R.)
Minnesota- QB J.J. McCarthy Out, RB Jordan Mason Out, TE T.J. Hockenson Out, OT Brian O'Neill Questionable, C Ryan Kelly Out

Denver at Kansas City (Thursday Nighter)
Denver- WR Pat Bryant Out, C Luke Wattenberg Out, LB Dre Greenlaw Out
Kansas City- OT Jaylon Moore Questionable/Full EDGE George Karlaftis Questionable DT Derrick Nnadi Questionable LB Nick Bolton Questionable

Houston at L.A. Chargers (Saturday)
Houston- OT Trent Brown DNP, OT Aireontae Ersery DNP, DT Sheldon Rankins Limited, DT Denico Autry DNP, LB Azeez Al-Shaair Limited, CB Derek Stingley Jr. Limited, CB Kamari Lassiter Limited
L.A. Chargers- RB Kimani Vidal DNP, WR Derius Davis DNP, OT Trey Pipkins Full, OT Jamaree Salyer DNP, OG Mekhi Becton Sr. Limited, EDGE Bud Dupree Limited, DT Teair Tart Limited, LB Denzel Perryman (Suspension 2 Weeks), CB Benjamin St-Juste DNP, S R.J. Mickens DNP

Baltimore at Green Bay (Saturday Nighter)
Baltimore- QB Lamar Jackson DNP, OG Andrew Vorhees Limited, CB Chidobe Awuzie Limited
Green Bay- QB Jordan Love Limited, QB Malik Willis DNP, RB Josh Jacobs Limited, TE Josh Whyle Limited, OT Zach Tom DNP, OG Aaron Banks Limited, OG Sean Rhyan Limited, S Evan Williams Limited

Tampa Bay at Miami
Tampa Bay- WR Chris Godwin Jr. Limited, OT Tristan Wirfs DNP, OT Luke Goedeke Limited, EDGE Anthony Nelson DNP, DT Calijah Kancey Limited (Working back from I.R.)
Miami- C Aaron Brewer DNP, DT Benito Jones Limited, LB Tyrel Dodson DNP, S Minkah Fitzpatrick DNP

New England at New York Jets
New England- RB TreVeyon Henderson Limited, WR Kayshon Boutte DNP, WR Mack Hollins DNP, WR DeMario Douglas Limited, OT Morgan Moses Limited, OT Thayer Munford Jr. Limited, OG Jared Wilson DNP, EDGE Harold Landry DNP, EDGE Anfernee Jennings Limited, NT Khyiris Tonga Out, LB Robert Spillane DNP, DT Milton Williams Limited (Working back from I.R.)
New York Jets- QB Tyrod Taylor Limited, TE Mason Taylor DNP, EDGE Will McDonald V DNP, DT Harrison Phillips Limited, DT Jay Tufele DNP, LB Francisco Mauigoa DNP

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Pittsburgh- RB Jaylen Warren Limited, WR D.K. Metcalf (Suspension 2 Weeks), WR Calvin Austin III DNP, OG Isaac Seumalo Limited, EDGE T.J. Watt Limited, EDGE Nick Herbig Limited, CB James Pierre Limited, CB Brandin Echols DNP
Cleveland- RB Dylan Sampson Limited, TE David Njoku DNP, OG Wyatt Teller Limited, OG Teven Jenkins Limited, DT Mason Graham Limited, LB Carson Schwesinger Limited, CB Denzel Ward Limited, CB Tyson Campbell Limited, CB Myles Harden Limited

Arizona at Cincinnati
Arizona- WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Limited, OT Paris Johnson Jr. DNP, OG Evan Brown Personal DNP, C Hjalte Froholdt Limited, EDGE Josh Sweat DNP, CB Will Johnson Limited, CB Kei'Trel Clark DNP, CB Max Melton Limited, CB Darreb Hall Limited, S Budda Baker DNP, S Jalen Thompson Limited
Cincinnati- TE Noah Fant Limited, EDGE Joseph Ossai DNP, DT B.J. Hill DNP

New Orleans at Tennessee
New Orleans- RB Alvin Kamara DNP, OG Cesar Ruiz DNP, OL Asim Richards Full, DT Bryan Bresee Out
Tennessee- OG Kevin Zeitler Limited, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day Limited, LB Cedric Gray Full, CB Jalyn Armour-Davis Limited, EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville- RB Bhayshul Tuten Limited, OG Patrick Mekari DNP, OG Ezra Cleveland Limited, C Robert Hainsey DNP, CB Greg Newsome DNP, CB Jourdan Lewis DNP, CB Montaric Brown Limited
Indianapolis- OT Bernhard Raimann Limited, C Tanner Bortolini DNP, TE Drew Ogletree DNP, DT DeForest Buckner DNP, CB Sauce Gardner DNP, QB Anthony Richardson Sr. Limited (Working back from I.R.) 

Seattle at Carolina
Seattle- OT Charles Cross DNP, EDGE Derick Hall (Suspension 1 Week), S Coby Bryant Out 
Carolina- OT Ikem Ekwonu Full, DT Turk Wharton DNP, LB Trevin Wallace DNP, OG Robert Hunt Limited (Working back from I.R.)

New York Giants at Las Vegas
New York Giants- OT Andrew Thomas DNP, C John Michael Schmitz DNP, DT D.J. Davidson DNP, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches Limited, CB Cor’Dale Flott Limited, CB Deonte Banks Limited, S Tyler Nubin DNP
Las Vegas- OG Caleb Rogers Limited, EDGE Maxx Crosby DNP, OT Kolton Miller Limited (Working back from I.R.)

Philadelphia at Buffalo
Philadelphia- OT Lane Johnson DNP, DT Jalen Carter Full, LB Nakobe Dean DNP
Buffalo- QB Josh Allen Limited, TE Dalton Kincaid DNP, TE Dawson Knox DNP, EDGE Joey Bosa DNP, DT DaQuan Jones DNP, DT Jordan Phillips DNP, LB Shaq Thompson Limited, CB Taron Johnson Limited, S Jordan Poyer DNP, K Matt Prater DNP 

Chicago at San Francisco (Sunday Nighter)
Chicago- WR Rome Odunze DNP, WR Luther Burden III Limited, C Drew Dalman Limited, LB T.J. Edwards DNP, CB/S C.J. Gardner-Johnson Limited, S Kevin Byard III Limited
San Francisco- WR Ricky Pearsall Limited, TE George Kittle DNP, EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos DNP, CB Renardo Green Limited

L.A. Rams at Atlanta (Monday Nighter)
L.A. Rams- WR Davante Adams, OG Kevin Dotson
Atlanta- CB Mike Hughes 
 

________________________________________

Expected Goals, Actual Opinions: Thoughts from around the NHL
By: Alex Moretto, Director of Content at the Hammer Betting Network

1.) I like Canada to win the World Juniors at anything +money. This is shaping up to be their best roster in over a decade, with as many as eight top-10 picks. Every skater on the team except for one or two (depending on final roster) is a first-round pick. The vast majority were taken in the top 20. They have guys who will be left off the roster or play fourth-line minutes that would walk into the top-six for any other team at this tournament, and the same goes for the back end. They also have the right guy in charge to put it all together, in coach Dale Hunter. He’s a massive reason why I have so much confidence in this elite group realizing its potential.

Hunter’s resume speaks for itself. He’s coached Canada in this tournament once before, winning gold in 2020. In 14 seasons as London’s head coach he won five OHL championships and three Memorial Cups. He’s a massive upgrade on Dave Cameron who hasn’t had anywhere close to the same success in his long coaching career and who didn’t seem to have a clue at last year’s tournament. Hunter’s London teams are typically also loaded with talent, so this will be familiar territory for him. For Canada, the pieces to the puzzle are all there, it’s just about fitting them together properly. Hunter can do that. He’s got every tool he could want at his disposal, including the tournament’s best goalie tandem.

Goaltending has been a weak spot for Canada for close to a decade, but in Carter George and Jack Ivankovic it has become a strength for the team and gives them a huge edge over USA who will be without Trey Augustine for the first time in three years. Instead, the Americans will rely on 4th-round pick Nick Kempf (a sub-.900 SV% and 3.57 GAA for Notre Dame this season) and 7th-round pick Caleb Heil (struggling in the USHL), turning a strength into a weakness for the Americans.

That’s not all USA lost from last year’s gold-medal group. They will be without Zeev Buium, Ryan Leonard, Oliver Moore, and Gabe Perreault. All of those guys were top-25 picks, and some combination of that group had a hand in 12 of USA’s 15 goals in the knockout rounds last year. It’s a ton of talent to lose, especially when they’re not being adequately replaced. This year’s roster will include just one top-20 pick, leaving them dangerously short on high-end players as they host the tournament for the first time since 2018. The gap between Canada and USA is a lot bigger than that between USA and Sweden.

The Swedes are in the same group as the hosts and the two will play at 6pm ET on New Year’s Eve. I have a hard time imagining I won’t be backing Sweden in some capacity there. They are loaded up front with Anton Frondell (third overall), Viktor Eklund (16th overall), and Ivar Stenberg (2026 consensus top-three pick) leading a group that contains at least 10 top-60 picks. This is a strong, experienced group that will have its sights set on winning Group A and reaching the gold-medal game.

Finland’s hopes were dealt a blow when Buffalo decided not to let Konsta Helenius play, but they’re still a good team with an excellent goaltender in Petteri Rimpinen, who stole the show in 2025. Combine that with a lack of firepower, and I will be betting their unders at these high totals until they’re adjusted (if they ever are).

Slovakia could steal a spot on the podium on the back of their goaltending, as well, but they lack skill up front and return only six skaters from last year. They have no one who can replace Dalibor Dvorsky and Juraj Pekarcik, who combined for 16 points in 10 games at last year’s tournament.

Czech are without their would-be starting goalie Jakub Milota, leaving them vulnerable in goal. Combined with an exciting crop of forwards, and some strong play-drivers on the back end, there could be a lot of goals in this team.

Switzerland are built from the back with strong goaltending and a deep blue line, but there’s not a lot to love up front. Conversely, Germany should find success offensively and return two goalies (both NHL draft picks) from last year, but whoever starts in net will be busy as their defensive group leaves a lot to be desired.

Latvia have more high-end talent than ever before and should show respectably as a result, while Denmark are in tough and likely to be relegated.

Canada to win the tournament at + money is my favorite (favourite?) World Juniors bet, but here’s what I like from the first batch of games that’s been posted:

Sweden/Slovakia u7.5 +110
Denmark/Finland u7.5 -124
Germany/USA o7.5 -120
Czech/Canada o6.5 -105

2.) While we’re on the topic of international hockey, there’s no world in which Jordan Binnington should see the ice for Canada at the Olympics. Never mind whether or not he’s Canada’s best goalie… he’s not even the best Canadian goalie on his own team. Joel Hofer has slowly taken over as the Blues’ starter as Binnington continues to struggle immensely, ranking dead-last in the NHL in GSAA (-15.73) and GSAx (-13.12), and 38th out of 39 goalies (min. 14 starts) in both SV% (.870) and GAA (3.44). You know who the top-three goalies are in both SV% and GAA? I’ll give you a second to guess…

Scott Wedgewood, Logan Thompson, and Darcy Kuemper.

You know what all three of them have in common? They’re Canadian. So is Mackenzie Blackwood, who missed the start of the season with an injury and hasn’t reached the minimum 14 start cutoff as a result, but if we removed that he’d rank ahead of all three of those guys in SV% and second in GAA. Canada has options.

Binnington is currently -190 on Fanduel to start for Canada in their first game at the Olympics. He shouldn’t even be on the team, let alone see the ice. Logan Thompson is +145 and that’s a great bet (albeit the limits for this sort of market aren’t great). He’s the current Vezina frontrunner and has been Canada’s best goalie for close to two years now. Blackwood (35-1), Wedgewood (35-1), and Kuemper (75-1) are all decent bets as well. They’re miles better than laying -190 on a guy who almost certainly won’t see the ice in Milan and might not even make the team.

3.) Mentioned on Edge Work Overtime yesterday that I’d have thoughts on Craig Berube and the Leafs in the newsletter, but we ended up talking about it at length on the show, so I’ll keep this brief.

The fanbase is frustrated and divided over the Berube situation. Half of them blame Berube for the team’s miserable start and want him fired. The other half blame the players and don’t want to see them let off the hook. Well, both can be true, and in this case I think the right answer is somewhere in the middle. Berube isn’t a good coach, and he probably should be fired. This isn’t a great roster, but it’s not this bad either, and with a new voice they would be better. At the same time, this core has underachieved at every turn and consistently cowered in the face of adversity. It speaks volumes about the leadership group that they’ve completely checked out on Berube. Acting like it’s ok to quit on the coach because you don’t like him is crazy. We can’t normalize that, especially not for a group that has already done this before. There needs to be way more accountability in that room, and the players need to face the music. All of that remains true, but it also doesn’t negate the fact that Berube isn’t a good coach and the Leafs need to make a change behind the bench. They won’t, though, according to reports coming out of the organization, and it’s likely going to cost them their season. I don’t think this is a threatening team or even a particularly good one, but I do think they’d find a way into the playoffs in a congested Eastern Conference if Berube were fired tomorrow.

4.) I’ve said many times that I don’t believe the NHL market is truly efficient, and there’s been no shortage of examples to support that view this season. We got two great ones on Thursday (Dec 18) that I wanted to make a point of touching on here.

The Lightning hosted the Kings that night. Brandon Hagel was a game-time decision for Tampa, and we didn’t know who would start in net for Los Angeles on a back-to-back. Hagel was confirmed out by Cooper at 5:33pm. The market didn’t move. Forsberg was confirmed as the Kings’ starter over Copley at 6:34pm (a clear upgrade for them in net). The market didn’t move. About 10 minutes later, the Lightning got steamed to oblivion (-198 to -230 on Pinny) despite all the news breaking in favor of the Kings. The real kicker came a few minutes before puck drop when out of nowhere Nikita Kucherov was ruled out with an illness. There was NO buyback on the Kings. The market things nothing of Hagel, Kucherov, and the difference between Forsberg/Copley, apparently. I bet the Kings at +177 after the Hagel news, added more at virtually the same price after the Forsberg confirmation, and then… if you can believe it… added more at +205 after the Kucherov news. What are we even doing here?

On the same night, Artemi Panarin was a game-time decision for the Rangers. When the news broke in morning skate, the market didn’t budge. Despite the questionable tag, the Rangers took money throughout the afternoon. At 7:33pm, Panarin was ruled out. Guess what happened next? Nothing. The Blues finally took a little money before post, but not nearly enough.  

The. NHL. Market. Is. Not. Efficient.

5.) Injury roundup…

New injuries this week:

Leo Carlsson, ANA (Dec 22, day-to-day); Seth Jarvis, CAR (Dec 19, week-to-week); Jaccob Slavin, CAR (Dec 19, week-to-week); Zach Werenski, CBJ (Dec 22, day-to-day); Frank Nazar, CHI (Dec 20, four weeks); Tristan Jarry, EDM (Dec 18, two weeks); Mackie Samoskevich, FLA (Dec 22, “hopeful” to return for first game after break); Jake Evans, MTL (Dec 20, still awaiting a timeline); Jonathan Marchessault, NSH (Dec 17, day-to-day); Ilya Sorokin, NYI (day-to-day); JT Miller, NYR (Dec 20, week-to-week); Tyler Kleven, OTT (Dec 20, day-to-day); Timothy Liljegren, SJS (Dec 18, day-to-day); Brandon Montour, SEA (four weeks as of Dec 22); Vince Dunn, SEA (Dec 22, day-to-day); Karel Vejmelka, UTA (Dec 23, day-to-day); Rasmus Sandin, WSH (Dec 23, day-to-day);

Previously injured, could be back this week:

Nick Foligno, CHI (Nov 15, returning shortly after Christmas); Mathieu Olivier, CBJ (Nov 24, back at skate and nearing return); Kasperi Kapanen, EDM (Nov 29, “back around Christmas time”); Jake Walman, EDM (Nov 20, should be back soon); Darcy Kuemper, LAK (Dec 15, “nearing return” per Hiller); Kirby Dach, MTL (Nov 15, back soon after Christmas); Simon Nemec, NJD (Dec 12, “perhaps by end of calendar year”); Bo Horvat, NYI (Dec 11, practicing in non-contact as he nears return); Adam Fox, NYR (Nov 29, back at skate and nearing return); Shane Pinto, OTT (Dec 5, skating and “getting closer”); Evgeni Malkin, PIT (Dec 8, week-to-week); Jared McCann, SEA (Dec 11, could be back this week if he initial  three-week timeline); Brandon Hagel, TBL (Dec 15, day-to-day and likely back first game after break); Elias Pettersson, VAN (Dec 5, back first or second game after break); Jack Eichel, VGK (Dec 13, still day-to-day).

Still out:

Jason Zucker, BUF (Dec 8, week-to-week); Connor Bedard, CHI (Dec 12, to be re-evaluated in new year); Lian Bischel, DAL (Dec 1, 6-8 weeks); Tyler Seguin, DAL (Dec 3, 6-8 months); Matthew Tkachuk, FLA (trying to make it back for Jan 2 Winter Classic); Aleksander Barkov, FLA (Sep 25, 7-9 months); Dmitry Kulikov, FLA (Oct 9, five months); Patrik Laine, MTL (Oct 16, 3-4 months); Kaiden Guhle, MTL (Nov 14, 8-10 weeks); Alex Newhook, MTL (Nov 14, four months); Jonathan Kovacevic, NJD (yet to play this season, finally back skating); Evgenii Dadonov, NJD (Nov 26, still “aways away” as of Dec 16); Kyle Palmieri, NYI (Nov 28, 6-8 months); Alex Romanov, NYI (Nov 22, 5-6 months); Lars Eller, OTT (Dec 11, four weeks); Tyson Foerster, PHI (Dec 2, five months); Will Smith, SJS (Dec 13, week-to-week); Philipp Kurashev, SJS (Dec 13, week-to-week); Jaden Schwartz, SEA (Nov 28, six weeks); Jimmy Snuggerud, STL (Dec 1, minimum six weeks); Jordan Kyrou, STL (Dec 7, week-to-week, still not skating); Dylan Holloway, STL (Dec 14, at least six weeks); Erik Cernak, TB (Nov 22, still week-to-week as of Dec 5); Victor Hedman, TB (Dec 9, back early February before Olympics); Emil Lilleberg, TB (Dec 13, out “a few weeks” at least); Anthony Stolarz, TOR (Nov 11, looking for second opinion as he’s still not skating or making progress); Brandon Carlo, TOR (Nov 13, latest update is “another month” as of Dec 11); Logan Cooley, UTA (Dec 8, at least eight weeks); Filip Chytil, VAN (Oct 11, continues to skate but no timeline); Derek Forbort, VAN (Oct 11, still no clear timeline); Adin Hill, VGK (Oct 20, out “a few months”, targeting mid to late-January as of Dec 15); William Karlsson, VGK (Nov 8, still week-to-week as of Dec 15); Shea Theodore, VGK (Dec 13, week-to-week but “not a long one”); Pierre-Luc Dubois, WSH (Oct 31, 3-4 months).

________________________________________

Check out Kalshi and get signed up today:https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/hammer

Join our Discord and be a part of the Conversation. Access to Creators and more: JOIN DISCORD

Every bettor talks themselves into picks. FTN helps you talk yourself out of bad ones. The platform gives you unbiased team and player context so you are not chasing last week or falling for hype. Start with Stats Pro or upgrade to Stats GOAT. Use HAMMER10 for 10% off. Head over to FTNFantasy.com