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Read the Offering information carefully before investing. It contains details of the issuer’s business, risks, charges, expenses, and other information, which should be considered before investing. Obtain a Form C and Offering Memorandum at invest.klondikeroyalties.com.

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Join us in satisfying growing energy demands.

Klondike Royalties provides an opportunity to invest in the North Block of the Kitchen Lights Unit in Alaska's Cook Inlet, estimated to contain 300 million barrels of recoverable reserves. Our royalty-based investment model is backed by a team with 4 previous successful projects.

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Read the Offering information carefully before investing. It contains details of the issuer’s business, risks, charges, expenses, and other information, which should be considered before investing. Obtain a Form C and Offering Memorandum at invest.klondikeroyalties.com.

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Everyday investors net +$60M in proceeds from the sale of exclusive assets

From CEOs to shop owners, investors in Masterworks’ art offerings have received more than +$60,000,000 in total net proceeds to date (including principal) across their 23 exits.*

Surprised that so many people are interested in art investing? Bank of America recently found 83% of wealthy American investors 43 and under already collect, or want to. Normally, only the top 1% of investors would be able to diversify with art like Picassos and Banksys. But with Masterworks, you can easily diversify into this asset class without needing millions, or art expertise.

With a team that’s been working since 2019, Masterworks investors have realized representative annualized net returns like +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5% (among assets held for longer than one year).

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Past performance not indicative of future returns. Investing Involves Risk. See Important Disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

Guy Spier recently interviewed $200 billion fund manager Howard Marks. It’s full of gold and well worth the watch. Enjoy!

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Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman recently made the case for Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) stock on X:

Twitter tweet

Here are the highlights:

• Ackman sees a possible asymmetric investment heading into 2025: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock.

• He has owned them for over a decade, and while returns have been lackluster so far, he sees a credible path to ending their conservatorship in the next two years.

• Ackman anticipates that a second Trump administration will complete the efforts that began during Trump’s first term, removing Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship.

• Ending conservatorship could generate over $300B in additional profits for the government (on top of $301B of cash the US Treasury has already received) and remove about $8T of liabilities from the government’s balance sheet.

• The organizations have built $168B in capital, and Ackman sees a 2.5% capital ratio as enough to cover potential losses.

• An IPO in Q4 2026 could require raising about $30B, and Ackman estimates a value of $34 per share, with an IPO price of $31. (Both trade at just under $5 today)

• Junior preferreds offer upside too, but Ackman sees more potential with the common stock.

• He noted high uncertainty and to invest only what one can afford to lose.

Although stocks have doubled since his post, they are still down almost 95% from their peak in the early 2000s, before the Great Financial Crisis.

Ackman is hosting a Spaces live call on X to cover his investment thesis in detail on January 16:

Twitter tweet

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Man who predicted Crypto Market: AI will be 10X bigger

James Altucher, the investor who famously called Bitcoin's rise, is now predicting something even bigger: Artificial Intelligence.

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This Time It's (NOT) Different

Sven Carlin gave a quick breakdown of where we are in the big market cycle:

• We’re somewhere between Delusion and “New Paradigm.”

• Analysts expect corporate earnings to grow almost 50% in the next few years

• Corporate margins are near their all-time peak

• What usually follows is a bubble burst

• Treasuries still make more sense here at 4.33% yield than overvalued companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla

• As a value investor, you must look out ten years from today—until 2035.

• Every decade has challenges, from inflation to war a lousy economy and pandemics. The 2030s will be no different; new challenges will still exist.

• In summary—this time is NOT different.

• The key to value investing is to invest for the ten-year scenario in which the market flops, but your stocks are still okay.

• For example, the economy slows down, inflation continues, interest rates stay high, etc., but food producer ADM is still protected against inflation, and strong demand for their product, along with a hefty dividend, will almost certainly continue.

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Dub app raises $17M for first regulated copy trading platform

On Dub, you don't pick the stocks you want to invest in. You pick the people you want to copy, with portfolios based on hedge fund managers, investing experts, and even law makers.

When you copy a portfolio on Dub, you execute the same trades as them automatically. Dub’s team hopes this will make investing more transparent and accessible.

Dub is SEC-registered, member FINRA. All deposits are SIPC-insured.

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Not investment advice. Full disclosures here.

Thank you for reading Value Investor Daily this year—we turn 1 year old this week.

Since publishing our first issue a year ago, we’ve grown from under 10 subscribers to over 28,000.

It’s been a wild ride, and we appreciate your reading, sharing, and engaging with us throughout.

Thank you, and Merry Christmas!

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The Dow Jones dropped for the 9th day in a row, its longest losing streak in 46 years— since 1978. The drop is primarily due to the recent precipitous drop in United Health’s (UNH) stock.

A peculiarity of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, created in 1896 by Charles Dow, is that, unlike most other modern index funds like the S&P 500, the Dow is not a market cap-weighted average but a price-weighted average.

That means the stocks with the highest stock prices impact the index the most. This is why you’ll sometimes see high-priced stocks split their share price before they enter the Dow. It’s also why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) could never be added; it would dominate the entire index.

It also means that the recent 22% drop in United’s stock in the wake of the tragic assassination of their CEO, the public’s outcry against claims denials, and Trump’s recent comments stating "we are going to knock out the middleman,” referring to pharmacy benefit managers—has had an outsized impact on the Dow.

Before dropping from $630 down to $485, United had the highest share price in the Dow. Now, Goldman Sachs holds the top spot at $574 per share.

United’s market cap is $446 billion, compared to Apple’s (AAPL) $3.83 trillion market cap and $253 share price.

Even though United’s market cap is 89% less, its impact on the Dow Jones was nearly 2.5 times that of Apple's until two weeks ago. Now it’s only. 1.9x.

This is why you must understand what you own, whether individual stocks or a fund.

The Dow Jones is packed with relatively stable, dividend-paying, value-style names, but would you rationally allocate 2.5 times more to United Health than to Apple in your own portfolio? Both are huge companies, but which is more relevant to the global economy?

It’s a fine index to follow, but given its pricing method, it doesn’t make much sense to own it outright. Occasionally, you get these sorts of share price effects, like we’ve seen this week with United Health.

What about United Health? Will the company survive? Probably, yes. While Trump wants to push major healthcare reforms, he won’t nationalize healthcare, so private insurance is here to stay.

The company is almost 50 years old, has over 400,000 employees, and insures over 140 million people worldwide.

Their PBM business, OptumRX, contributes a significant percentage of United’s total revenues: around 33%. The segment coordinates drug pricing and schedules between customers, pharmacies, drug manufacturers, and employer plans. Its margins could be squeezed if Trump persuades Congress to pass new transparency rules, but it’s unlikely to be eliminated entirely.

The stock trades for 18.45x TTM GAAP earnings. Earnings are expected to nearly triple in the next decade from $27 to $74 per share by 2034. If earnings do grow that much and the shares trade at an earnings yield equivalent to the 10-year treasury (4.4% right now), the stock would reach around $1680 (a 13.2% annualized CAGR), continuing its high impact on the Dow Jones. Including the 1.6% dividend would bring it to 14.8%.

Perhaps it's a bit too soon, morbid, or macabre to consider buying shares after a slain executive. Still, as value investors, our job is always to stay clear-eyed and rational, even amidst tragedy, chaos, and constant market and economic noise. In ten to twenty years from now, there’s a very high chance United Health will still have a large and profitable business with hundreds of millions of customers.

As always, do your own research before making any investment.

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