Hi Global Recap readers,

Quick reminder before heading into the weekend: don’t be surprised if next week’s newsletter looks completely different. We couldn’t carry this exact style over on Substack, but maybe it was time for a refresh anyway.

See you on the other side!

🇪🇺 EU
Chat Control Returns

Chat Control 1.0 remains alive after the European Parliament failed to reach the 360-vote threshold required to reject it.

• Vote. Although more MEPs voted to block the proposal (314) than to keep it alive (276), opponents fell short of the absolute majority needed, so the measure proceeds.

• Voluntary. Until April 2028, platforms may voluntarily scan communications for Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM). They are not required to do so, but privacy advocates expect large platforms to continue scanning rather than risk missing CSAM reports.

• Encrypted. True end-to-end encrypted (E2EE) messages cannot be scanned server-side. Parliament backed an explicit exemption, though the Council must still agree before it becomes law.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Assassination Threat

US President Donald Trump

Israel reportedly warned the US that Iran had a new plan to assassinate President Trump.

• Signals. But it's not just Israel that concluded this. US agencies have long monitored Iranian threats against Trump and had separately collected intelligence about them.

• Burial. The funeral rites for Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have now concluded. Mourners were heard chanting “Death to America,” while “We will kill Trump” signs and messages were displayed in Tehran.

• Plane. This follows Trump’s decision to leave Ankara on the older presidential aircraft before boarding the Qatar-gifted jet in the UK. Sources said the Secret Service advised the switch because the older aircraft has defensive systems missing from the newer plane.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Diesel Ban, Drone Attacks

Russia has banned diesel exports through July 31 as Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries squeeze its domestic fuel market.

• Shortage. Deputy PM Alexander Novak said the export ban would redirect diesel to Russian buyers. Gasoline and jet-fuel export restrictions were already in place, while Russia was preparing to import fuel in July.

• Response. Russia, being one of the largest fuel exporters in the world, is giving up sales abroad to manage supply at home after repeated refinery hits brought shortages, price spikes, and long lines at pumps.

• The Math. This is a classic example of Ukraine exploiting a cost imbalance, forcing Russia to use expensive defensive systems against relatively cheap Ukrainian drones. And when the drones hit, they cause massive economic and political damage to Putin.

Rostov Logistics Hit

Meanwhile, overnight drone strikes hit 2 Russian fuel depots and a reported defense plant in Azov, plus an oil-loading terminal at Taganrog's port. Russian officials confirmed fires across both cities and nearby districts.

What We Know:

• The reported defense target, the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, produces optoelectronic, radar and precision systems.

• Firefighters were still working at 2 petroleum-storage sites and the Taganrog seaport. The damage and casualty totals remain unclear.

🇵🇸 PALESTINE
For Real This Time?

President of the Palestinian National Authority Mahmoud Abbas

President of the Palestinian National Authority Mahmoud Abbas has set November 28 for legislative elections. If held, it will be the first Palestinian Legislative Council vote since 2006.

Note: an entire generation has grown up without ever voting for the Palestinian parliament.

📌 Context:

• Gaza. April’s municipal pilot in Deir al-Balah drew just 23% turnout. Mass displacement and outdated civil records disrupted normal voter registration.

• The field. Before April’s local elections, President Mahmoud Abbas required candidates to pledge support for the Palestine Liberation Organization’s political program, including recognition of Israel and renouncing armed struggle. Critics said the requirement effectively sidelined Hamas and other opposition factions.

• Jerusalem. Abbas postponed the 2021 election after Israel did not guarantee voting in East Jerusalem. His latest decree includes Jerusalem, but access remains unresolved.

• Authority. The Palestinian Authority administers semiautonomous areas of the West Bank, while Hamas expelled its forces from Gaza in 2007. Abbas has separately promised a presidential election in 2027.

Hi Global Recap readers,

I really tried today to find stories that weren’t about President Trump so we could mix things up a bit. I found a few, but they either somehow circled back to him or just weren’t as geopolitically urgent as today’s headlines.

That said, he dropped huge bombs today (literally and figuratively). 👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇬🇧 UK: The UK is weighing rules that could force platforms to boost public-service and "trusted" news.

• 🇵🇱🇷🇺 Poland-Russia: The US reportedly warns Poland that Russia may be preparing a deniable "armed provocation" on NATO territory.

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: The US hits more than 80 Iranian targets after US officials say Iran attacked 3 commercial vessels near Hormuz.

• 🇵🇸 Palestine: Hamas says it dissolved its Gaza government and is preparing to hand civilian power to the UN-backed NCAG, but it still has not agreed to disarm.

• 🇹🇷🇺🇸 Turkey-US: President Trump says the US will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and consider F-35 sales.

🇺🇦🇺🇸 UKRAINE & US
Ukraine Gets
Patriots License

Great news for Ukrainian President Zelenskky, since he’s been asking the US government to grant Ukraine the license.

President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelenskyy the US will give Ukraine a license to make Patriot interceptor missiles, giving Kyiv a welcome air-defense edge while Russia keeps pounding Ukrainian cities.

• Catch. Trump said the US would show Ukraine how, but the companies involved had not been informed yet.

• Need. Zelenskyy has been pushing for production rights because Ukraine is short on interceptors and cannot reliably stop Russian ballistic missiles without them.

• Defense. Patriot is a defensive surface-to-air missile system: radar, command tech, launchers, and interceptors built to knock down aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

• Timing. The timing of the announcement is crucial because Russia just fired another large overnight barrage this week, and Ukraine said all 5 ballistic missiles got through.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Deal Is Over

The moment President Trump says that the MOU is over.

President Trump said the Iran MOU is “over,” and called Iranian leaders "scum" and "sick people," but still left negotiators room to keep talking. He also said that the US wasted “a lot of time with them.” This is clearly the "told-you-so" moment critics of the MOU were waiting for, and it seems like Secretary of State Rubio was one of them. 👇🏼

People are point out that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is finally smiling again, now that President Trump has returned to a tougher stance on Iran after weeks of calling the regime “reasonable.”

Second Wave

A video reportedly showing the massive blast caused by US strikes.

The break was not just rhetorical. The US hit Iran again after yesterday's strikes.

• Reminder. The first US wave hit more than 80 targets, including air-defense systems, coastal surveillance, missiles, drone launch sites, and IRGC small boats.

• Timing. A second US wave followed Wednesday night, using cruise missiles to hit 2 railway bridges in northeastern Iran. This is the first reported US strike on Iranian infrastructure since the April ceasefire.

• Reply. Kuwait said air defenses were confronting hostile missile and drone threats. Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens. Iran's Guards claimed attacks on US military sites in both countries.

New Updates

• Ports. Explosions were reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Chabahar, and other Iranian coastal areas. CENTCOM later said the second round hit about 90 Iranian military targets.

• The call. Trump later claimed Iran had called and wanted "to make a deal so badly," then immediately questioned whether Tehran was "worthy" of one.

• The risk. Iran's top negotiator said the strait would open only with "Iranian arrangements," while Trump warned US strikes would get "much worse" if ships are hit again.

🌐 WORLD
NATO Summit
Rapid Fire News

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (left) and US President Donald Trump (right).

🇸🇾 Syria off the list. Trump moved to remove Syria from the US state-sponsor-of-terrorism list, opening a 45-day congressional review clock. The bet is that sanctions relief will both encourage President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government to keep the pressure on Hezbollah (a group it is already seen as hostile toward) and pave the way for foreign investment to help rebuild Syria.

US President Donald Trump (left) and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (right).

🇪🇸 Trade Embargo. Trump ordered an immediate cut off all US trade with Spain after PM Pedro Sanchez refused NATO's 5% defense-spending target. Spain has also taken the opposite approach on immigration, recently moving to regularize hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants. The dispute now reflects not just a political disagreement, but a broader ideological divide.

US Vice President JD Vance (left) and the Second Lady of the United States Usha Vance (right) in Greenland.

🇬🇱 Greenland, again. Trump renewed his claim that the US should control Greenland, accusing Denmark of underinvesting in the island’s defense and warning about Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. Denmark’s PM Mette Frederiksen pushed back at the Ankara NATO summit, saying Greenland is “not for sale” and that the US should respect Danish sovereignty.

Hi Global Recap readers,

Quick heads up: starting next week, we’ll be sending the Global Recap through Substack.

• Good news if you like Substack’s more interactive feel.

• The only catch is that the automated import might miss a few people (0.004% of people only). But don’t worry. I’ll send extra migration emails next week in case you’re one of the very unlucky few.

That said, we’ve got some pretty big news today: the EU’s new driver-monitoring mandate, the US-Iran war restarting, and President Trump lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, and what that actually means. 👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇬🇧 UK: The UK is weighing rules that could force platforms to boost public-service and "trusted" news.

• 🇵🇱🇷🇺 Poland-Russia: The US reportedly warns Poland that Russia may be preparing a deniable "armed provocation" on NATO territory.

• 🇮🇷 Iran: Iran starts Ali Khamenei's delayed funeral, but the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still missing.

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: US officials say Iran fired at least 3 missiles at commercial ships near Hormuz, cracking the short pause that was supposed to keep traffic moving.

• 🇵🇸 Palestine: Hamas says it dissolved its Gaza government and is preparing to hand civilian power to the UN-backed NCAG, but it still has not agreed to disarm.

🇲🇨🇺🇦 MONACO & UKRAINE
Dead Suspect,
New Problem

An image released by Interpol allegedly showing Anastasiia Berezovska.

Remember the Monaco car bomb attack we covered last week? The one that seriously injured a Ukrainian-born businessman sanctioned by Ukraine over alleged Russia-linked business ties? Well, the suspect was a 39-year-old Ukrainian woman, Anastasiia Berezovska, who allegedly disguised herself as a man. Now she’s been found shot dead near Kyiv.

• Arrests. Ukrainian authorities said 2 men were detained: a serving military intelligence officer and a former law enforcement officer. One allegedly said he acted without his superiors.

• Charges. Interpol had wanted Anastasiia Berezovska for attempted murder, placing an explosive device in public, and criminal conspiracy.

• Problem. Investigators say the men sent Berezovska crypto and bank payments. That does not prove a state order, but it puts the Ukrainian government in a weird spot.

🇪🇺 EU
Eyes On You

Your next EU-market car will be watching your eyes. New cars sold in the bloc now need driver monitoring that tracks where the driver is looking and warns when attention drifts.

• Trigger. Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) switches on above 20 km/h (12 mph), with warnings after 3.5 seconds of off-road gaze at 50 km/h (31 mph) or faster, or 6 seconds at lower speeds.

• Guardrail. EU rules say the system cannot rely on biometric personal data and should only retain data needed for a closed loop.

• Gap. The privacy worry is enforcement. The rule does not set a clean retention period or independent audit path, and connected-car data has already been sold in other markets.

🇹🇷🇺🇸 TURKEY & US
Trump's Turkey Gift

US President Donald Trump (left) and Turkish President Erdogan (right).

President Trump is in Turkey to attend the Ankara NATO summit. And on the very first day, he announced that the US will lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and consider letting it buy F-35 jets. This undos the punishment the US imposed after Turkey bought Russia's S-400 air defense system.

But there issues with that.

• Jets. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 because US officials said the S-400 could expose the jet's stealth capabilities to Russian intelligence.

• Pushback. Sen. Lindsey Graham was quoted by i24NEWS saying, "We will oppose the F-35 deal," and Axios reported 18 lawmakers urged House leaders to block any sale while Turkey still has S-400s.

• Erdogan. Turkish President Erdogan signaled optimism about the F-35 talks, while Trump said he had "no concerns" about Turkey still using Russian air defenses.

The Weird Part

President Erdogan gives a thumbs-up and chuckles after hearing President Trump announce that the United States is lifting the sanctions.
Click for video

President Trump also claimed Turkey could have entered the Iran war "on the other side," but Turkish President Erdogan maybe stayed out because of him.

• Taken literally: Trump is saying a NATO ally was close to joining Iran against the US and Israel, then opening the door to F-35s for that same ally.

• Taken as hyperbole: Then it is his usual speech pattern.

However, if it is not hyperbole, then that means the US just softened penalties on a country Trump had framed as almost joining the terrorist enemy regime against the United States.

"CAATSA" stands for Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
We’re Still in a
Ceasefire, BTW

Video reportedly showing the moment the US struck Shahid Haqqani Port in Bandar Abbas.

The US hit Iran again, striking more than 80 targets after US officials said Iran attacked commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

A US official said the strikes were punishment, not "proportional retaliation."

• Targets. CENTCOM said US forces struck air defenses, command networks, coastal radar, anti-ship capabilities, and more than 60 IRGC small boats. A US official told Axios the operation was 4 or 5 times larger than the previous Hormuz strikes 10 days earlier.

• Explosions. Iranian state media reported blasts on Kharg Island, Qeshm Island, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. Kharg is Iran's main oil export hub, so even reported explosions there land differently.

Oil and Wordplay

• Sanctions. The Trump administration also revoked Iran's oil-sales waiver, cutting off a key incentive from the June 17 MOU.

• Market. But the thing is, as we wrote last week, buyers were already hesitant to buy from Iran because nobody knew how long the waiver would last, on top of the broader Iran-US tensions.

• Talks. Iranian officials vowed a “crushing response” and said US military pressure made negotiations impossible.

• Retaliation. In response, IRGC-linked news agency Tasnim says Iran struck 85 US military sites, including the US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain and Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait, with multiple waves of missiles and drones.

This is a developing story.

Hi Global Recap readers,

It’s one of those mornings where every headline comes with an official explanation, but every explanation has a “but…” attached.

Good morning. 🌞

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇬🇧 UK: The UK is weighing rules that could force platforms to boost public-service and "trusted" news.

• 🇵🇱🇷🇺 Poland-Russia: The US reportedly warns Poland that Russia may be preparing a deniable 'armed provocation" on NATO territory.

• 🇮🇷 Iran: Iran tries to turn Ali Khamenei's delayed funeral into a show of continuity, but new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still MIA.

• 🇨🇳🇮🇷 China-Iran: Iran tells China that "friendly" countries could get special treatment if Tehran starts charging ships near Hormuz.

🇦🇺🇨🇳 AUSTRALIA & CHINA
China’s Abrupt
Missile test

The Taiwanese government’s reported flight path of a Chinese ballistic missile during its Pacific test launch.

China conducted a missile test over the Pacific. Australia and Pacific leaders criticized it, plus the reported flight path. China responded by telling them not to read too much into it.

• Launch. China’s state news agency Xinhua said a nuclear submarine fired a strategic missile with a dummy warhead into Pacific waters. China says relevant countries were notified.

• Notice. But Australia says warning came only hours beforehand, despite 48 hours being the norm.

• Path. Secretary-General of the National Security Council of Taiwan Joseph Wu posted a claimed route over the Philippines and passing Micronesia and Palau. ABC reported it appears to have landed near Tuvalu.

• Pushback. Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale called it "not something a friend does."

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Deep Strike Week

Video reportedly showing Ukrainian drone striking the Omsk oil refinery.

A video reportedly showing an ammunition depot in Ukraine’s Vyshneve struck.

Ukraine just put Siberia on the map. Its deep strike hit Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, while Russia's latest Kyiv strike will likely keep Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's NATO pitch focused on air defenses.

Remember: the NATO summit in Ankara runs July 7 to 8, 2026.

Latest Update

1. July 6. Ukraine hits Omsk. Drones struck Russia's largest refinery, 2,500 to 2,700 km (1,550 to 1,700 miles) from Ukraine, starting a fire.

   • Russian officials reported no casualties.

   • Zelenskyy called it an important achievement and said Siberia is now within reach.

2. July 6. Russia pounds Kyiv. Missiles and drones killed at least 21 in the capital, days after another major strike killed at least 27.

3. July 7 to 8. NATO gets the ask. Zelenskyy has been pressing other countries to help Ukraine strengthen its air defenses, especially against ballistic missiles. Watch for whether the Ankara summit produces a concrete decision.

🇵🇸 GAZA
Hamas “Dissolves”

Hamas said it dissolved its Gaza government and is preparing to hand civilian power to the UN-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a technocratic body created under President Trump's ceasefire plan.

• Limit. But this is not all good news, yet. The announcement did not say Hamas would disarm or hand security to an international force.

• Test. Trump's Board of Peace said it would judge "actions, not promises" and repeated that Gaza needs one authority controlling all weapons.

• Pushback. Israeli FM Gideon Saar views this move as an attempt to avoid disarmament. NCAG chief Ali Shaath said the body needs one legal framework and a unified security apparatus before it can actually govern.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Hormuz Pause Breaks (Again)

US officials say Iran fired at least 2 missiles at commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, putting the short pause meant to keep traffic moving in immediate trouble.

• Strike. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said 1 tanker reported an unknown projectile 8 nautical miles (9 miles) east of Limah, Oman, causing a port-side fire. No casualties or environmental damage were reported.

• Attribution. The claim that Iran fired is the US's. In fact, UKMTO did not name an attacker.

• Deal. The MOU had Iran provide 60 days of no-charge safe passage for commercial vessels, but Iran is still pushing approved routes and future "service fees."

• Risk. Axios reports the US is likely to retaliate, so the next move tests whether the deal is still alive.

Hi Global Recap readers,

I generally prefer non-fiction over fiction, and that’s been true for as long as I can remember. But the only novel I’ve carried with me through every move is George Orwell’s 1984.

What always struck me wasn’t just Orwell’s ability to vividly capture the dread of Oceania. It was the cowardice of the Party—a regime so afraid of a free marketplace of ideas that it had to control what people could read, hear, and ultimately think.

Now, we may be seeing signs of that same instinct again (ironically, in the UK). 👇🏼

🇬🇧 UNITED KINGDOM
Controlling Your Algorithm

‘The proposed new rules include a mandatory “prominence regime”. This could require digital platforms like YouTube to prioritise and give a “privileged position” to traditional broadcasters (like the BBC, ITV and Channel 4) in user interfaces and recommendation feeds, potentially pushing your content out of sight."‘

The UK is considering rules that could decide which news gets boosted in your feed. And now, YouTube is warning creators that platforms may have to start pushing public-service and "trusted" news over everyone else.

• What. The proposal sits inside "Watch this Space," a UK government consultation paper asking whether social media and video platforms should make public-service media, and possibly local and national publishers, "easier" to find.

• Why creators care. YouTube's alert says the rules could require it to rank some channels above others and make it harder for independent creators to grow.

• Not law yet. The consultation opened June 23 and runs until 23:59 on August 31, 2026.

• The fight. The government says it wants "reliable news" visible online. YouTube is telling creators the state is getting too close to the algorithm.

📊 Poll

What do you think? Should the UK be able to force platforms to prioritize state-funded or public-service media over independent outlets simply because it considers them more “reliable”?

🇵🇱🇷🇺 POLAND & RUSSIA
Armed Provocation
Against NATO

Russia may try something just over the NATO line to "test." The US has reportedly told Poland that Moscow may be preparing an "armed provocation" on NATO territory, with Polish sources saying the point would be to test whether the alliance responds when the target is not Ukraine.

• Scenario. Reported options include:

  • drones or missiles against Polish infrastructure,

  • a fake large air attack to force Polish air defenses to activate,

  • a limited border incident involving Russian or Belarusian troops.

• Limit. This is an intelligence warning, not a confirmed Russian operation though. What to look out for might be a provocation small enough for Russia to deny, but serious enough to force NATO into a decision.

Trump's Meetings

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (left) with US President Trump. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump (right).

Meanwhile, President Trump is expected to meet Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa alongside the NATO summit in Ankara (July 7-8).

• Ukraine. A senior US official said Trump wants to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war, with the battlefield "frozen" and neither side making much progress.

• Syria. The White House gave fewer details on al-Sharaa.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Where Is He?

Iran wanted Ali Khamenei's delayed funeral to signal continuity, stability, and strength. Instead, everyone kept looking for the one man: Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

But all we got was a cardboard.

• Stagecraft. In fact, most of the surviving power structure showed up, including Iranian President Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, senior clerics, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi.

• Absence. Even Mojtaba's 3 brothers were seen beside the coffins. However, Mojtaba was not, and he also skipped his wife's funeral last week.

• Interpretation. Reports point to either security concerns or injuries from the February 28 US-Israeli strike that killed his father and other family members. But many people online are taking it as evidence that he’s actually dead.

Mojtaba’s 3 brothers: Masoud, Meysam, and Mostafa Khamenei.

AI Crowd

Here’s one such video.

Then came Iran's specialty: AI videos. Iranian media had floated up to 20 million people for the Tehran funeral proceedings. The real crowds were reportedly large, but that number is now getting heavily scrutinized by commentators online.

• Doubt. One critic asked why supporters were sharing AI-looking clips if the turnout was really that huge. Treat that as discourse, not a verified crowd audit. Here’s a video from the venue.

• Evidence. A fact-check found one viral funeral video was AI-generated, citing visual artifacts such as incorrectly spelled words, etc.

The Memes

And we all know the internet also loves AI videos. So, since Mojtaba stayed invisible, the internet filled in the blank.

Side-eye. This is not AI, but still meme-worthy. Viewers clipped Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi looking sideways at Ghalibaf and read it as a silent review of Ghalibaf's performance.

Stand-in. Of course, we can’t forget Cardboard Mojtaba. This is AI.

🇨🇳🇮🇷 CHINA & IRAN
Hormuz Friends List

Ambassador of Iran to China Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (right).

Iran is telling China that if Hormuz becomes a paid lane, "friendly" countries will get "special treatment."

• Fees. Ambassador of Iran to China, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, told the World Peace Forum in Beijing the charges would cover security, vessel supervision, and environmental costs, insisting they would not be a “toll.” Why? Because a toll would be illegal under "international law."

• Favor. He did not say what China would get, only that friendly countries would receive "special considerations" on the level and type of fees.

• Pushback. The US and Gulf Arab states oppose any charges. Some European governments now see a fee system as inevitable, but want Iran and Oman to avoid discriminating by nationality.

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: The US and Iran pause attacks after ~4 days of strikes around Hormuz, then immediately disagree over whether Tuesday's Doha talks are even happening.

• 🇮🇷🇮🇶 Iran-Iraq: Iraq arrests 47 people in a Baghdad corruption sweep that appears to hit Iran-aligned power networks.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Russian President Putin admits Ukraine's refinery strikes are creating fuel shortages inside Russia, with rationing now reported from Irkutsk to Crimea.

• 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Opposition leader María Corina Machado says she will return to Venezuela following the earthquake disaster.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Fuel Giant Rejected?

Russia is now trying to import gasoline, an awkward look for one of the world's biggest oil exporters after Ukrainian drone strikes hit its refining system.

• Shortage. The Kremlin says talks are active with unnamed countries, and Russian President Putin has admitted a fuel shortage while saying reserves are 1.7M metric tons, down 4% from last year.

• Damage. The squeeze has pushed Russia toward import subsidies and market support while fuel demand is high from summer travel and farming.

• Kazakhstan. Industry-source reporting said Russia discussed buying 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan.

  • However, Kazakhstan's energy minister said no official Russian request had arrived, but Astana would consider one if it did.

  • But one unverified rumor circulating online claims that Kazakhstan flatly refused Putin.

🇪🇸 SPAIN
Legalization Surge

Around 1 million immigrants in Spain have tried to legalize their status, making the regularization drive much bigger than the government planned.

• Terms. Applicants could seek a 1-year renewable residence and work permit if they had spent at least 5 months living in Spain and had no criminal record.

• Scale. Spain had received 900,000 applications by June 12, processed about 360,000 by mid-June, and now has 3 months to decide the rest.

• Mix. Colombians made up 30% of applicants, followed by Moroccans at 14%, Venezuelans at 10%, and Peruvians at 9%.

• Read. Spanish PM Sánchez is betting that labor needs and tax revenue will outweigh the severe backlash he’s receiving. It’s worth noting that much of Europe is starting to change course and take a harder line on deportations now.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Kurdish Front Flickers

An unverified CCTV footage circulating online, reportedly showing Kurdistan Free Life Party (a Kurdish militant group) killing an IRGC officer in Paveh.

Iran has a new problem in its Kurdish west: reported attacks have killed security personnel near the Iraq border, but the evidence still falls short of proving a coordinated Kurdish insurgency.

• Paveh. Iranian state media said 2 local IRGC members were killed at home and 2 others wounded in Kermanshah province. A little-known group, Xore Heva, later claimed the attack as revenge for Iran's crackdown after Mahsa Amini's 2022 death.

• Baneh. Gunmen also killed 2 police officers at a checkpoint in Kurdistan province. That attack has not been clearly attributed, and injury counts differ across reports.

• Pattern. Kurdish-focused and opposition-linked outlets are also reporting clashes around Marivan, Mahabad and Baneh.

• Leverage. Kurdish opposition figures argue any US-Iran deal would leave them exposed and strengthen Tehran. Iran's problem is that even small border attacks now look bigger while Washington and Tehran are trying to keep talks alive.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Talks Happened, “Indirectly”

In focus: Jared Kushner (left) and Steve Witkoff (right).

Initially, President Trump announced that Iran requested Doha talks. But Iran denied this, saying that there’s no meeting with the American side scheduled.

Well, it seems like US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had Doha talks after all. However, Tehran can still say it did not technically sit down directly with the US, because they reportedly didn't talk to the US envoy directly.

What we know:

• Qatar said Witkoff and Kushner met Qatari mediators, not Iranian officials. Iran also said no US meeting was scheduled, while leaving room for messages through Doha.

• The technical talks now cover the MOU, frozen assets, Hormuz traffic, nuclear issues, regional security, and Lebanon.

MOU Execution

US President Donald Trump signing a US-Iran memorandum of understanding at Château de Versailles, France, on June 17.

Now, two weeks after the signing of the MOU, we need to look at how the agreement has been implemented in practice and compare that with what it promised. Despite it looking incredibly generous to Iran on paper, in practice, it seems like the the benefits are slower and narrower than Iran would like.

Some of this played out as expected, but some of it came as a surprise, namely, how the Israel-Lebanon situation and the lifting of oil sanctions unfolded:

💰 Assets. The US has not released Iran’s frozen funds yet, citing unmet conditions under its performance-based framework.

🛢️ Oil. Treasury has authorized Iranian oil sales through August 21, but buyers are reportedly still very cautious. Energy analysts say China is likely to remain the main buyer while others wait to see what happens during and after the 60-day period.

🇱🇧 Lebanon. Point 1 of the MOU protects Lebanon's "territorial integrity and sovereignty." However, it does not name Hezbollah (an Iran-backed paramilitary group in Lebanon).

• This is where Secretary Rubio's Israel-Lebanon Trilateral Framework comes in.

• The framework creates a "clear and structured process to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty, disarm Hizballah and dismantle its terrorist infrastructure, and enable Israel to return to its borders once that threat to its citizens is removed."

• Since Lebanon’s sovereign government signed onto this, the US can argue that it is consistent with the MOU, while making Iran’s claim that Israel is attacking Lebanon more awkward.

• Of course, Iran can still accuse the US of letting Israel hit Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The harder argument is that Lebanon's own government just agreed that Hezbollah's weapons are the sovereignty problem.

Now and Future

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei (left), and US President Donald Trump (right).

So all in all, as things stand, the US seems to be holding most of the cards, despite the concerns many MOU critics had. Many are also giving Rubio credit for clarifying the MOU and making its first provision far less problematic through the Israel-Lebanon framework agreement.

Many of the MOU’s critics are starting to warm to the idea that it may have been a practical way to avoid a much larger global crisis.

• The sentiment I’m seeing among these critics online is that, while negotiating with a terrorist regime is never ideal, if the alternative meant higher oil prices and greater disruption to the global economy, this may have been the best middle ground President Trump could realistically strike.

• That said, most of the original critics still seem to oppose the MOU itself.

Trump's War Line

Perhaps calm the backlash over the MOU, we’re now seeing reports that President Trump weighed the option of an all-out war with Iran before deciding to stick with talks (for now).

• The reported reason: another full-scale attack could wreck diplomacy, and Trump is fine if talks run past the August 18 deadline.

• This seems to be in line with the current US posture: keep oil prices calmer, keep Hormuz partly open, slow-walk Iran's biggest rewards, and use Lebanon's government-to-government framework to shrink Tehran's gray-zone argument.

But what’s missing from all the recent discussion about Iran is the people of Iran. We keep talking about oil prices, negotiations, and practical trade-offs, while the regime’s continued executions of Iranian protesters seem to be largely forgotten.

Hi Global Recap readers,

This is either one of those freak coincidences where everything lines up perfectly, or… someone wanted him found exactly there.

But the question is: why would anyone go through the trouble of trying to take him out? (allegedly)👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: The US and Iran pause attacks and restart Qatar talks after ~4 days of strikes around Hormuz.

• 🇮🇷🇮🇶 Iran-Iraq: Iraq arrests 47 people in a Baghdad corruption sweep that appears to also hit Iran-aligned power networks.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Russian President Putin admits Ukraine's refinery strikes are creating fuel shortages inside Russia, with rationing now reported from Irkutsk to Crimea.

• 🇮🇱🇹🇷 Israel-Turkey: Israel's Cabinet votes to recognize the Armenian genocide.

• 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU-US: US President Trump threatens a 100% tariff on countries that tax US tech companies.

🇲🇨🇺🇦 MONACO & UKRAINE
Assassination Attempt?

Vadym Yermolaiev (left) and the suspect (right).

Monaco is treating a Monday night blast that wounded Ukrainian oligarch Vadym Yermolaiev and 2 others as a "deliberate explosion," after a suspect allegedly left a bag or package in a residential lobby near the French border.

• Device. The explosive device apparently contained bolts and buckshot, and the blast hit around 9 p.m. local time.

• Injuries. A couple in their 50s or 60s were in life-threatening condition. A 13-year-old likely related to them was less seriously hurt. Four others were treated for shock and cuts from shattered glass.

• Manhunt. French and Monaco authorities are searching for the suspect, who officials said fled into France.

• Motive. Monaco officials have not said why the building was targeted.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Usual Denial Game

• President Trump announced that Iran requested a Tuesday meeting in Doha, Qatar.

• US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route to Doha.

• However, as per usual, Iranian negotiator Kazem Gharibabadi says no talks are scheduled.

• On top of that, adviser Mohammad Marandi posted on X that the request came from the "Trump regime" and Iran would not send a delegation. 👆🏼

Well, we’ll find out soon enough who’s lying.

🇺🇸🇻🇪 US & VENEZUELA
Machado Wants to Return

Click for video

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado says she will return to Venezuela to help coordinate earthquake relief. turning a disaster response into a test of whether acting President Delcy Rodríguez can keep her biggest rival out.

• Risk. Machado left Venezuela in December 2025 after more than a year mostly in hiding and a decade-long travel ban. She is now in Panama City after Venezuela temporarily closed its airspace, she said.

• Disaster. Rodríguez declared an emergency after 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude quakes on June 24. Authorities put the toll at 1,719 dead, more than 22,000 injured, and thousands missing.

• Washington. US officials have supported a later Machado return but warned she would travel now at her own risk and without US support.

• Leverage. If Machado gets in, acting President Delcy Rodríguez has to tolerate a rival relief network.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Air War Widens

A Ukrainian rescue worker putting out a fire caused by a Russian strike on Mykolaiv region.

Russian strikes killed 12 civilians across Ukraine on Monday, while both sides traded huge drone-interception claims.

• Hit. Ukraine reported deaths in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv, with 40 people wounded and power cut to customers in 8 regions.

• Ask. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy used the attacks to push Europe again for anti-ballistic systems, not just more short-range drone defenses.

• Interception. Russia said it shot down 209 Ukrainian drones overnight and Ukraine said it neutralized 82 of 108 Russian drones

Hi Global Recap readers,

I love how these coincidences just line up.

• In April, traders put $430 million on oil falling, just 15 minutes before President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire. This was the third time just that month.

• Then this weekend, the first strike announcement waited for market close, and the pause landed before stock-index futures reopened.

Almost like war is on Wall Street’s calendar now.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Weekend War

First round of US retaliation.

Second round

The US and Iran agreed to pause attacks and restart Qatar talks after ~4 days of tit-for-tat strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.

But on Sunday, Iranian FM Araghchi reportedly said that Iran is assuming sole authority over the strait, despite the MOU requiring it to “make its best efforts” to allow safe passage for commercial ships for 60 days. 👇🏼

Chronology

1. Thu/Fri. Iran fired 4 drones at M/V Ever Lovely in the Strait of Hormuz. 3 were intercepted. 1 hit the vessel.

2. Friday. In retaliation, the US struck Iranian targets, including missile/drone storage sites and coastal radar around Qeshm Island.

3. Saturday. Another commercial vessel (M/T Kiku) was reportedly hit by an Iranian drone, and the US concluded the first response had not stopped Iran.

4. Saturday night. CENTCOM announced a second consecutive night of strikes on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's drone attack on M/T Kiku.

5. Sunday. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Most incoming weapons were intercepted, with limited reported damage and no confirmed US casualties.

6. Sunday night/Monday. Both sides paused attacks while warning that another violation could restart the fighting.

Market Coincidence?

But the most notable part of the attacks and the pause is the timing.

• On Friday, NBC reported that the Pentagon allegedly waited until after the US stock market closed at 4 pm ET to publicly announce the first US strikes.

• Then on Sunday, reports of the pause agreement landed 1 hour before US stock-index futures reopened for the week.

Maybe that was coincidence. Either way, some are calling it market manipulation, while others are joking that it’s “war off during weekdays, war on during weekends.”

🇮🇶🇮🇷 IRAQ & IRAN
47 Arrested

Iraq arrested 47 people in a Baghdad anti-corruption sweep, while an unnamed security official said the raids were also part of a broader campaign against funding channels linked to Iran-backed armed groups.

• Targets. The raids covered MPs, political officials, and at least 1 oil ministry figure. Some warrants could not be executed because suspects had immunity or were outside Iraq.

• Factions. One arrested oil official had already been sanctioned by the US over alleged oil-smuggling networks linked to Iran-backed groups (claims Iraq denies).

• Timing. The raids also coincided with a visit to Baghdad by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Stacks of cash allegedly seized during the arrest.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Putin's Fuel Problem

Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted fuel shortages after Ukraine's refinery strikes turned Russia's energy depth into a domestic problem.

• Admission. Addressing a meeting of senior officials on fuel supply and distribution, Putin said Ukraine's attacks on critical and energy infrastructure are creating "obvious" problems and that Russia is seeing "a certain shortage," while insisting it is “not critical.”

• Recently. Ukraine says it hit refineries in Slavyansk-na-Kubani and Yaroslavl over the weekend, roughly 300 km (185 miles) and 700 km (435 miles) from Ukraine.

• Rationing. Irkutsk limited state-run Rosneft station sales to 50 liters (13 gallons) per vehicle per day. Crimea had already declared an emergency over shortages and power cuts.

Footage reportedly showing people lining up to fill their cars with fuel.

🇮🇱🇹🇷 ISRAEL & TURKEY
Delayed Genocide Recognition

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar

Israel's Cabinet voted to recognize the Armenian genocide, turning a long-avoided history question into another live fight with Turkey.

• Status. The proposal passed unanimously on Sunday, but it still needs Knesset approval before becoming fully formal.

• History. Israeli FM Gideon Sa'ar said Turkey has pushed denial and "rewriting of history." Turkey rejects the genocide label and says the deaths came from wartime unrest.

• Timing. Israel long avoided formal recognition to avoid angering Turkey.
  

  • Now, with ties already badly strained and Turkey accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza (which Israel denies), this move seems especially political.

  • Turkish officials called it a stunt to distract from Israel’s own actions.

🇮🇱🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU & US
Tech Tax Fight

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (left) and the President of the United States Donald Trump (right).

US President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on goods from any country that imposes a digital services tax on US tech companies, saying the penalty would override existing trade deals and take effect immediately.

• Scope. The threat was primarily aimed at European countries, but Trump framed it as applying to any country that moves ahead with the tax.

• Target. France, Spain, and Italy already have 3% digital services taxes. The UK has a 2% version.

• Pushback. The European Commission says the taxes apply to large companies regardless of origin and defended the EU's right to regulate its own market.

Hi Global Recap readers,

The sense I’m getting, now that everyone’s had time to digest the details of the MOU, is that critics have largely gotten their initial frustration out of their system—for now.

That’s probably good for everyone’s cortisol levels heading into the weekend. However, the situation in the Middle East doesn’t appear to be improving.

• Iranian officials are now openly mocking the US

• Some Gulf states may be quietly coordinating with Iran

• Tehran is reportedly violating the MOU with little apparent consequence.

More on that later, but first let’s talk about the 40-day plan President Zelenskyy just approved. 👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: US Vice President Vance says Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap and IAEA inspector access, while Iran denies new commitments.

• 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: UK PM Starmer says he will resign as Labour leader.

• 🇮🇷 Iran: Iran's Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat suspend card services after a 2nd cyberattack in 2 weeks.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits Russian oil, electronics and Crimea infrastructure targets this week, including a Tyumen refinery more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine and energy sites that leave parts of occupied Crimea in rolling blackouts.

• 🛢️ Oil: US emergency oil reserves fall to their lowest level since June 1983.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
40 Days of “Sanctions”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he approved a 40-day SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) operation against Russia aimed at forcing an end to the war. He gave almost no operational detail, which is probably the point.

• Plan. Zelenskyy said the SBU briefing covered "long-range sanctions," "medium-range sanctions," and drone results at the front. He did not explain what the 40-day operation will include.

  • Note: He has previously used “long-range sanctions” to describe long-range drone swarm attacks on Moscow.

• Pressure. We’re now seeing a shift in momentum.

  • Ukraine is signaling a sustained, time-bound campaign, while Russia is dealing with reported strikes on refineries, energy infrastructure, and logistics hubs in Crimea.

  • That said, Moscow has not confirmed Ukraine’s claims about the extent of the damage, even though videos of several strikes are circulating online.

Belarus Changing?

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right).

The more unexpected subplot is Belarus.

• Apology. Self-described Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko recently apologized to Zelenskyy for past inflammatory remarks, including warnings that Belarus could strike Ukraine if its territory were threatened. He also said Belarus has no plans for military action, while urging Zelenskyy to stop provoking Belarus.

• Signals. Ukraine says Russian-linked signal repeaters in Belarus stopped operating after Kyiv warned Minsk to remove them or face strikes. Zelenskyy said it is unclear whether Belarus dismantled them or just paused them.

• Speculation. One Ukrainian analysis frames this as Lukashenko resisting Kremlin pressure.

🇲🇩🇷🇴 MOLDOVA & ROMANIA
Union Bill for
Russian Takeover?

Romania’s SOS Romania party quietly slipped through a bill on June 24 calling for union with Moldova, after lawmakers let the 45-day review deadline expire without bringing it to a plenary vote.

• Mechanics. The Chamber was only the first chamber. The Senate still has the final say, and its tracker lists the bill as registered for debate there.

• Text. The bill says Romania's Parliament "decides" union with Moldova and authorizes urgent talks with Moldovan authorities to finalize it, plus notifications to Moldova, the US, NATO, the UN, and the EU.

• Pushback. Romania's Government, Legislative Council, Economic and Social Council, and Chamber committees gave negative opinions.

• Read. This is louder as symbolism than law. It gives pro-Russian Moldovan figures an easy annexation narrative while leaving no actual union in force.

🇪🇺🇺🇦 EU & UKRAINE
Cash And Drones

European Council President António Costa (left), Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center), and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right).

The EU started wiring Ukraine the first €3 billion ($3.4 billion) from a €90 billion ($101 billion) support loan, using a recovery conference in Poland to show that backing Kyiv is now a budget line, not a one-off promise.

• Timing. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said another €6 billion ($6.7 billion) for drone production should start moving in the coming days.

• Pitch. Ukrainian PM Svyrydenko said her delegation planned 160 deals worth more than €10 billion ($11.2 billion), while European leaders launched a fund for Ukrainian strategic sectors.

• Friction. Zelenskyy skipped the event after a diplomatic spat with Polish President Karol Nawrocki over Ukraine’s decision to honor a military unit linked to the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA).

  • Context: UPA is a group many Poles associate with the World War II Volhynia massacres.

  • Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Zelenskyy’s absence could help lower the temperature.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Iran Violates MOU

This unverified video reportedly shows the IRGC Navy (Sepah Navy) broadcasting on Marine VHF Channel 16, warning that vessels may only transit the Strait of Hormuz with its permission and that those who do not will face the consequences.
Click for video

Iran is already violating the US-Iran MOU. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly just hit the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely with a drone while it was exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

• Breach. Point 5 of the MOU was supposed to reopen Hormuz and give the US and Iran 60 days to settle the bigger "deal." If the US attribution is right, Iran attacked a commercial ship in the lane the agreement was meant to calm.

• Damage. UK maritime officials said the ship's bridge was damaged about 7.5 nautical miles (8.6 miles) southeast of Dahit, Oman, with no reported casualties.

• Response. The US has not announced any new punitive measures in response to the strike.

  • Supporters argue the concessions are a pragmatic tradeoff, aimed at lowering energy prices, keeping shipping through the strait open, reducing hostilities, and creating space for the regime to eventually moderate its behavior.

  • One of the biggest counters to the supporters’ claims is that the strait was already open before the war. Critics argue Iran now seems emboldened to openly antagonize and contradict the US without consequences, making the US look weak.

Now, Iran appears to be pushing for “service fees” for ships transiting the Strait while openly mocking the President of the United States and boasting about how the regime plans to use the billions of dollars in unfrozen assets. 👇🏼

The Fee Play

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi recent post on X, featuring an image of him (right) shaking hands with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi (left).

Iran is reportedly pushing to turn reopening Hormuz into money and control, with Tehran estimating a security, safety, and environmental-fee system could raise $40 billion a year for participating states.

• Pitch. Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi said Iran and Oman would discuss the strait's future administration and maritime services with neighbors.

• Pushback. However, Oman said it has no plan to impose transit fees and supports toll-free safe passage under international law.

• Problem. US Secretary of State Rubio said Gulf states had "zero support" for fees on international waters.

The Money Fight

Click for post

The farm-goods promise is wobbling too.

• Claim. President Trump recently told reporters that the released Iranian funds will buy US corn, wheat, and soybeans (framing it as a boost to US farmers).

• Denial. However, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called that fake and mocked the US instead. Iran's central bank chief and Foreign Ministry have also said Tehran is not required to buy US agricultural goods and will decide how to use released funds.

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: US Vice President Vance says Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap and IAEA inspector access, while Iran denies new commitments.

• 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: UK PM Starmer says he will resign as Labour leader.

• 🇮🇷 Iran: Iran's Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat suspend card services after a 2nd cyberattack in 2 weeks.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine strikes the Tyumen oil refinery more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine; it also warns Russian forces are burying anthrax-infected livestock in occupied Kherson.

• 🛢️ Oil: US emergency oil reserves fall to their lowest level since June 1983.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Crimea Goes Dark

Ukraine's Crimea strikes are continuing to hit infrastructure Russia needs every day: power, fuel, rail links, and bridge routes that keep the occupied peninsula connected.

• Blackout. Sevastopol, Crimea's largest city, lost power after strikes on energy facilities, while Russian-installed officials said parts of nearby occupied Kherson also had outages.

• Grid. A Russian-installed Crimea official said roughly half the peninsula had lost electricity after earlier attacks, with rolling blackouts introduced to manage the load.

• Targets. Ukraine said this week it hit a railway bridge, a power plant, and other infrastructure in Crimea. Russia said it destroyed more than 300 Ukrainian drones overnight.

🇩🇰 DENMARK
Prayer Call Fight

The Islamic organization Hizb ut-Tahrir holding its Friday prayer at the Parliament Square in commemoration of the victims of the Christchurch massacre on March 22, 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Denmark's immigration minister is reviving a review of whether the adhan (public Islamic call to prayer) can be banned or restricted in public space.

• Push. Morten Bødskov, a Social Democrat, said that the adhan should not be heard "over Danish rooftops" and said people should not feel they have ended up in "a suburb of Islamabad."

• Loop. This is the 3rd Social Democratic minister to pick up the idea after earlier work stalled around elections.

• Limit. Denmark has not passed a national ban. However, Copenhagen already blocks loudspeaker calls from minarets under local noise rules.

• Risk. Any law would have to survive religious-freedom objections, which is why the government is starting with the legal basis.

Opinions

For. A restriction can be framed as a defense of shared public space, not a ban on private worship.

• Supporters argue that when mosques are available nearby, choosing highly visible outdoor prayer or amplified calls can feel less like necessity and more like a public assertion of religious presence.

• Critics see that as testing the limits of a tolerant Western culture rather than simply exercising freedom of religion.

Against. Critics say this is unfair when church bells and other Christian traditions are left alone. Critics argue that Muslim prayer is getting singled out as a threat.

🇦🇺🇮🇷 AUSTRALIA & IRAN
Iran's Australia Link

Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Director-General Mike Burgess

Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director-General Mike Burgess says an Australian citizen in Iran orchestrated the 2024 Bondi firebombing while working as a senior agent in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force.

The real question is: can this regime actually change in the way the US keeps hoping it will?

• Targets. Burgess tied the October 2024 Bondi attack on Lewis' Continental Kitchen (a kosher restaurant) and the December 2024 Adass Israel Synagogue arson in Melbourne to Iran-linked networks targeting Jewish Australians.

• Offshore. He said a former Australian resident in Iraq directed the synagogue attack after being recruited through Iraqi militia groups, and is now imprisoned there.

• Backdrop. The speech came 6 months after 15 people were killed in an antisemitic Bondi Beach shooting.

• Limit. Burgess withheld both names to protect investigations and prosecutions. Iran has previously denied Australia's claims.

🌐🇺🇸 NATO & US
Rutte the Firefighter

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with his charts titled “THE TRUMP 47 EFFECT.”

NATO chief Mark Rutte went to the White House to cool things down with President Trump, as the Iran-US war and Trump’s threats to pull US troops from Europe started shaking the alliance.

• Iran. Rutte tried to downplay the split, saying the holdouts were isolated and that European bases still helped US operations. Trump wasn’t buying it though, saying America had been “let down.”

• Money. Rutte came ready to flatter Trump, using charts to show him that European and Canadian defense spending had gone up on his watch, including last year’s 5% GDP pledge (which trump had been pushing for).

• Summit. NATO's July 7-8 Ankara summit now has 2 jobs: keep Trump inside the alliance and make Europe’s big defense-spending promises look like more than paper commitments.

Hi Global Recap readers,

Our first story today is kinda brilliant and dumb at the same time.

Brilliant, because it’s the kind of thing that could make a good false flag.

Dumb, because it still requires people to believe Putin.

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: US Vice President JD Vance says Switzerland talks produced a 60-day roadmap and IAEA inspector access, while Iran says nuclear details were not discussed and no new commitments were made.

• 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: UK PM Starmer says he will resign as Labour leader and stay in No. 10 only until Labour chooses a successor, with Andy Burnham already preparing for power.

• 🇨🇴 Colombia: Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly beats Iván Cepeda 49.66% to 48.7% in Colombia's runoff, while outgoing President Gustavo Petro blames "the state of Israel" for a server breach.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine strikes the Tyumen oil refinery in Siberia more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine, then says it hit a Voronezh electronics plant tied to Russian missile production.

• 🛢️ Oil: US emergency oil reserves fall to 331.2 million barrels, their lowest level since June 1983, after a 9.05 million-barrel weekly draw.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Anthrax Warning

Anthrax is a serious bacterial infection that usually affects animals but can spread to people through contaminated animals or spores.

Ukraine's military intelligence warned that Russian forces in occupied Kherson are risking an anthrax outbreak by burying infected livestock without sanitary controls.

• Claim. The agency said infected carcasses are being moved to about 50 burial sites, with about 10 near Askania-Nova, Skadovsk and Zaliznyi Port posing the biggest risk.

• Risk. Some sites are near homes, roads and high groundwater. Anthrax spores can persist in soil for decades, so bad burial can endanger civilians.

• Caveat. The agency also warned Russia could detonate the anthrax burial sites, then accuse Ukraine of using “biological weapons.”

The Talks

So, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its 5th year, the big question is: are we anywhere close to the end?

The “letter” mentioned here is President Zelenskyy’s open letter published on June 4, proposing a meeting between the him and Putin to discuss ending the war.

Putin. Judging by Moscow’s latest signals, not really. On June 23, Putin said he saw no reason to meet Zelenskyy, even after Ukraine’s president proposed neutral-ground talks, a ceasefire, and an all-for-all prisoner exchange.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (left) and US President Donald Trump (right) at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, on June 16, 2026.

Trump. At the same time, Trump’s tone on the war seems to be shifting. According to a senior Ukrainian official, Trump told at the recent G7 summit to act “more boldly” toward Russia. The official said that Trump may no longer believe Putin will move unless he’s put under serious pressure.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Rubio Sells It

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to reporters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. He started his three-day Gulf trip on Tuesday in the UAE.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is trying to sell Gulf allies on the Iran MOU, and even critics of the MOU seem to be acknowledging his pitch as being sharper than Vice President JD Vance's version.

Gulf officials reportedly fear the deal gives Iran too much:

• no missile limits

• a $300+ billion reconstruction fund

• billions in sanctions relief

• room for Iran to influence Hormuz (toll/service fee)

Rubio's Line

Rubio is getting more credit online because he said the part Vance mostly avoided.

• Vance. Critics say Vance sounded like he was making excuses for the Iranian regime’s funding of terrorist proxies surrounding Israel, while defending the deal. They say that he is:

  • brushing past Iran's continued support of terrorist proxies (namely Hezbollah and Hamas) attacking Israel

  • sounding like he is blaming Israel for Hezbollah attacking Israel

• Rubio. Rubio, by contrast, was much more direct.

  • He said regional tensions cannot really cool down as long as Iran-backed terrorist groups are still firing missiles and drones from Iraq, or carrying out attacks like Hamas and Hezbollah have.

  • He also drew a clear line on the Strait of Hormuz: under any final deal, Iran cannot charge tolls or fees for passage through it.

🇮🇷 IRAN
Banks Go Dark

Iran's banking system got hit again, with card services at Bank Melli, Bank Saderat and Bank Tejarat suspended after cyberattacks hit their card-processing systems.

• Freeze. ATMs, POS payments and card-linked mobile features were taken offline at the 3 banks to block further unauthorized access.

• Spillover. Customers pushed transactions to other banks, straining Iran's payment network. Wider disruption hit as many as 8 banks.

• Attribution. Iran has not named suspects for Tuesday's attack. The central bank expected service restoration by Wednesday morning.

Hi Global Recap readers,

I don’t think it’s any secret that I think the Iran–US MOU is a bad deal. To challenge my own views, I spoke with friends who disagreed.

• They see it as a way to avoid another endless conflict.

• I’d argue that striking a deal with the regime only prolongs it.

• My concern is that it doesn’t actually solve anything. It just hands the same problem to the next president—as the Iran issue has been sitting on American presidents’ desks for decades.

There’s also the humanitarian side of it. After telling Iranians that help was coming, we’re now talking about billions in funding for the same regime that gunned them down in the streets.

What are your thoughts? 👇🏼

(And yes, there's finally a poll at the end.)

🇨🇴 COLOMBIA
Colombia’s Right-Wing Win

Colombian president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella.

Trump-backed right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly beat left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia's runoff, with preliminary results at 49.66% to 48.7%.

But outgoing President Gustavo Petro and Cepeda are calling it foul.

Why? Israel.

• Challenge. Cepeda says his camp will contest results from about 33,000 polling stations. Petro says only the official scrutiny process can name the winner.

• Israel. Petro claims he has evidence that National Registry server IP addresses changed and said "the state of Israel" was the only actor capable of doing it. He has not publicly proved that.

• Crackdown. De la Espriella campaigned on 10 maximum-security mega-prisons, ending Petro’s negotiations with armed groups and cartels, and launching a military crackdown on drug cartels and coca cultivation.

• Mood. Supporters of the president-elect are celebrating it as a win against socialism.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 UK & US
Starmer’s Leaving Today?

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer

US President Trump claimed UK PM Starmer "will resign" before Starmer had announced anything. But by then, social media was already full of “BREAKING” posts pushing the same rumor.

So did Trump actually get a heads-up from the UK and leak the news? Or was he just repeating what was already circulating online?

Click for post

• Timing. Starmer could set out an exit timeline as soon as Monday, but Downing Street pointed back to his Friday line that he was focused on serving the country.

• Attack. Trump tied the supposed exit to immigration and energy, writing that Starmer had failed on both and adding "OPEN NORTH SEA OIL!"

• Pressure. Starmer s upposedely spent the weekend weighing pressure from the Labour Party after Andy Burnham won a Parliament seat and prepared for a possible leadership challenge.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Deep In Siberia

From @Gerashchenko_en, former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Ukraine reportedly struck Russia's Tyumen oil refinery in Siberia, a strike so deep inside Russia that even the cautious conservative version puts it more than 2,000 km (1,200 miles) from Ukraine.

If the higher distance estimates are right, Kyiv just stretched the map again.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy detailing the weekend’s attack.
Click for video

• Reach. The attack may be Ukraine's deepest strike into Russia so far, with some reporting putting the distance at about 2,500km (1,550 miles). Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said upgraded Fire Point drones can now fly more than 3,000 km (1,860 miles).

• Target. Tyumen's former Antipinsky refinery is one of Russia's largest independent plants, with annual capacity around 6-8 million tonnes.

Russia's governor claimed air defenses repelled the attack and the plant was not damaged.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Threats Meet Talks

This is reportedly the moment the Iranian delegation walked out in protest after President Trump made comments that sound like threats of kidnapping or assassination.

After Friday’s Iran–US talks in Switzerland were delayed, the US, Iran, and the mediators finally sat down and kicked off negotiations.

Delegations:

• US: Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and senior adviser Jared Kushner

• Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

• Mediators: Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir

But things didn’t exactly get off to a smooth start, with the Iranian team walking out because of President Trump's threats against the Iranian delegation. 👇🏼

The Three Threats

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaking at the annual monetary policy conference.
Click for video

During Sunday's broadcast of an annual monetary policy conference, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran would will not give up its "right to [uranium] enrichment."

• Response. Trump then told Fox's Trey Yingst that Pezeshkian had "better watch his mouth" and "better shape up or we'll take over the rest of the country."

• Hormuz. But that's not all. Over the weekend, the IRGC also claimed it had closed the Strait of Hormuz over continued Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Trump responded by saying:

• Hezbollah. Trump also posted that Iran must stop its proxies in Lebanon or the US would hit Iran again, harder.

The Deal Test

Click for post

Mediators said lower-level technical talks will continue in Switzerland through the week, inside a 60-day process. The clearest output so far is a Lebanon deconfliction cell to “ensure the adherence of the termination of military operations in Lebanon.”

But the question people on social media are asking is:

• Money. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says oil waivers, port restrictions, frozen funds, and $300+ billion reconstruction planning are already moving along.

• Reception. Critics are calling Vice President Vance a liar for claiming earlier that Iran would not see a dime until it changed behavior. However, Vance supporters say that his comments only applied to the $300 billion reconstruction fund.

📊 Poll

Simple question. Not-so-simple answer…

Hi Global Recap readers,

Naturally, the day after I declared “enough Iran stories,” the full MOU drops and President Trump signs it into effect…

Below, I've covered some of the MOU’s impact + my thoughts (though, for everyone’s sake, they’re a much more restrained version of what’s sitting in my drafts folder).

If Global Recap is still around 5 years from now, maybe we can revisit it then.

It’s a long read, so I’ve put it at the end—along with a few memes floating around about this whole ordeal. 👇🏼

(Just a quick note: the “Final Thoughts” section after the reporting and analysis is exactly that—my thoughts. You may come to different conclusions.)

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia-UK: The UK boards the Russian shadow-fleet tanker SMYRTOS, a BBC investigation ties arson attacks on UK PM Starmer-linked properties to a Russian-speaking handler, and a Russian frigate fires warning shots near a UK-registered yacht in the Channel.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits a Russian state fuel reserve more than 700 km (435 miles) inside Russia, then a drone strike halts operations at Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery.

• 🌐 G7: G7 leaders meet in Evian-les-Bains with Ukraine, Iran, Hormuz, trade, and AI all fighting for space while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presses President Trump to keep backing Kyiv.

🇪🇺 EU
Deportation Rules Harden

Supporters of the measure in the European Parliament chanting “Send them back!” prompting opponents to shout “Shame on you!” in response.

The European Parliament just approved the EU's toughest return regulation in years, giving governments wider power to detain, search, and transfer illegal migrants.

• Hubs. EU states could send returnees, except unaccompanied minors, to "return hubs" in non-EU countries that agree to take them. Families with children are not automatically excluded.

• Powers. Authorities could search people, homes, other premises, belongings, and electronic devices, with authorization. Detention can run up to 24 months, plus a possible 6-month extension.

• Bans. Entry bans rise to 10 years in most cases, with longer or indefinite bans for people deemed security risks. Appeals would no longer automatically pause removal.

• Politics. The vote passed 418-218.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Moscow Hit Again

After damaging Moscow's main oil refinery on Tuesday, Ukraine hit the same facility again as part of its largest drone attack on the Russian capital in 2 years.

• Scale. Moscow's mayor said air defenses intercepted at least 194 drones bound for the capital overnight. Russia's Defense Ministry claimed 555 drones were intercepted nationwide.

• Disruption. Flights at all major Moscow airports were temporarily suspended. Russian media also reported damage to residential and commercial buildings from falling debris.

• Response. Russia responded with 7 missiles and 239 drones against Ukrainian targets, including energy and oil infrastructure.

🇨🇦🇮🇷 CANADA & IRAN
Toronto's Hiring Chain

A Toronto probe into the March 10 US Consulate shooting has turned a local gun-crime case into a much bigger question:

"who was paying young shooters to hit consular, Jewish, residential, and business targets?"

• Network. Toronto police say 3 teens/young adults have been arrested, 1 suspect is still wanted, and 2 seized handguns may be tied by ballistics to 27 shootings across the Greater Toronto Area.

• Method. Police say recruits in this wider pattern were hired through encrypted apps and told to film attacks as proof for payment.

• Limit. Toronto Police Chief Myron Demkiw has not publicly confirmed who directed or financed the attacks. That is still the question.

• Suspect.

  • Iran International’s police sourcs traced a logistics/supply pipeline to networks originating in Iran.

  • US prosecutors separately allege an Iraqi Kata'ib Hizballah figure claimed "our people" were behind the consulate and synagogue attacks.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
MOU Signed: Now We Talk

Some are comparing Trump's signing of the MOU at the Château de Versailles to the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. They argue, like the treaty that ended WWI but helped set the stage for WWII, this deal may solve a short-term problem while creating a larger one in the future. Even harsher critics are calling this the “unconditional surrender of the US.”

President Trump and Vice President Vance spent the past few days pushing back on reporting about the MOU.

Well, now we have the actual details after President Trump signed the heavily-panned Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) at the Château de Versailles, and the details ended up being basically identical to the leaked info.

And the President may have revealed why the US was so eager to sign the MOU.

Click to read the MOU

Money

So now, let's talk about the potential financial upside for Iran.

At least $300 billion: Clause 6 of the MOU stipulates that the United States must work with regional partners to develop a plan with "at least $300 billion" for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.

~$24-100+ billion: Clause 11 says the United States will "undertake" to make frozen or restricted Iranian funds "fully usable" after implementation of the MOU, through procedures negotiated during the talks. Estimates of such funds range from ~$24-100+ billion.

$4.2 billion/month: Clause 10 says the US will immediately "issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc."

• Unlike the above, this is immediate relief.

• At $70/barrel and ~2.0M bpd of exports, that would be about $4.2 billion per month in gross oil sales, assuming Iran can sell at those levels.

• Prior to the war, Iran relied on sanctions-evading "shadow fleet" trade to sell oil to its allies. The waiver language would make that workaround unnecessary.

Ballistic Missile Shift

President Trump explaining why Iran should have “some” ballistic missiles.

At a press conference at the G7 conference, President Trump shockingly retreated from his earlier position and said the following:

Later, when asked to clarify whether he doesn't mind Iran having ballistic missiles, he said:

Nuclear Pivot

President Trump discusses Iran’s civilian nuclear program. Also, pay attention to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s facial expressions and body language. Some observers interpret his demeanor as discomfort with the administration’s recent policy shift. Some go further, speculating that reports suggesting Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth opposed the MOU may have originated from Rubio’s camp to distance himself from the decision.

When asked whether he would accept Iran developing a civilian nuclear program after signing the MOU, after years of Iran claiming that this was all it sought, he said:

Meaning, he appeared to leave the door open to some civilian nuclear activity, but the MOU leaves that for negotiation.

Oil Reserves

President Trump talking about oil reserves nearing depletion.

This naturally raises the question of why the United States appears to be retreating from its earlier hardline stance.

In a remark that many would argue was better left unsaid, President Trump suggested continued bombing and a blocked Hormuz could exhaust oil reserves in about 4 weeks, though he did not clearly specify US versus global reserves:

Final Thoughts

The language in the MOU is loose enough that the Trump administration can probably downplay some of the benefits Iran will receive. Oil sanctions relief is harder to explain away, but that's not really my main concern anyway.

To me, the bigger issue is the precedent.

Neville Chamberlain announcing that he secured “peace for our time” after getting a pinky promise from Adolf Hitler that Germany’s territorial ambitions ended with Czechoslovakia, only for Hitler to swallow the rest of the country and invade Poland shortly thereafter.

The Munich Agreement was signed on Sept. 30, 1938, by Nazi Germany, the UK, France, and Italy. UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain (left) shaking hands with the Chancellor of the German Reich Adolf Hitler (right).

Before this war started, I said that if the United States could not finish it decisively and quickly, then it should not start it at all. Easier said than done, of course.

The reason wasn't Iran itself. It was credibility.

Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, in handcuffs and under armed federal escort, head to a Manhattan federal courthouse on Jan 5, 2026.

After the capture of Maduro, the US had built up a tremendous amount of fear around its military capabilities. Rightly or wrongly, it created the impression that the US was willing and able to act aggressively against hostile regimes. Squandering that reputation in a half-baked conflict would always come at a cost.

The problem is that once you start backing away, you have to spend an enormous amount of effort explaining why.

• Objectives have to get redefined.

• Red lines have to be constantly redrawn.

• Every concession has to be presented as a victory.

• Over time, that chips away at American deterrence.

And it wasn't like the Hormuz issue was unforeseen.

Iranian President Pezeshkian holding up a copy of the MOU with the signature of President Trump on the right side of the document.

And from Iran's perspective, the lesson seems obvious: if you can create enough disruption in global oil markets, you can eventually force Washington to soften its position and potentially come out better off than before the conflict even started.

Trump's own remarks about the oil reserves at the G7 conference make that interpretation hard to argue against.

US Vice President JD Vance

This is also why Vice President Vance's argument about taxpayer dollars misses the point. The issue is not whose money Iran receives. The issue is that Iran receives a financial lifeline at all.

Money is fungible. Any significant inflow of cash gives the regime more room to maneuver. And to make things worse, Iran is now reportedly promising to resume funding Hezbollah once assets are unfrozen.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Memes

Thanks for reading all the way through.

One thing I think is worth keeping in mind is just how difficult an operation like this is, especially when the conflict is happening halfway around the world. But at the end of the day, that’s exactly the kind of challenge a Commander in Chief is expected to handle, especially in a time of war.

That said, I think we discussed this “deal” enough. Let’s talk about memes.

Even The Babylon Bee, which is best known for its conservative-leaning satire, has started poking fun at the MOU. At the same time, contributors to Fox News, the New York Post, and many other conservative voices are publicly raising concerns about the deal.

No need to explain.

President Trump posted this in 2017. Critics are pointing out the obvious irony.

Here’s another one.

Hi Global Recap readers,

Hopefully, today’s the day I can finally stop writing deep dives on Iran. I think I’ve covered just about everything (other than the speculation still floating around).

At least until the MOU is signed and released on Friday.

Speaking of which, VP Vance finally answered why the administration is withholding the details of the agreement, and it made more people mad... 👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: Vice President Vance won't clearly deny Iran could get access to a $300 billion Gulf-funded reconstruction package.

• 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia-UK: The UK boards the Russian shadow-fleet tanker SMYRTOS in the English Channel; a BBC investigation ties arson attacks on UK PM Starmer-linked properties to a Russian-speaking handler.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits a Russian state fuel reserve more than 700 km (435 miles) inside Russia; Russia then pounds Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities.

• 🌐 G7: G7 leaders meet in Evian-les-Bains with Ukraine, Iran, Hormuz, trade, and AI all fighting for space while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presses President Trump to keep backing Kyiv.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
The Bargain Backlash

President Trump voicing frustration with how Israel has been handling Hezbollah.

President Trump's Iran negotiations is now testing how much pressure Washington expects Israel to swallow. His recent ask to Israel is: let Syria "deal with Hezbollah."

• He faulted Israel’s Lebanon campaign for its length, civilian toll, and strategic costs, then suggested Syria should take over.

• Israel’s critics are welcoming Trump’s remarks, saying he’s finally seeing things differently, while his supporters counter that the real question is why Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel.

Issues with Leadership

Al-Sharaa (then known as al-Jolani) in a media appearance in July 2016 (left), Al-Sharaa in a CNN interview in 2024 (right).

Record. Syrian President al-Sharaa is not some clean post-Assad technocrat.

• He was a member of al-Qaeda in Iraq

• He founded al-Nusra in Syria

• led al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate

• later broke with al-Qaeda

• rejected ISIS’s merger attempt

• then fought ISIS.

Criticism. This is why critics believe handing al-Sharaa any role in Israel’s security, let alone dealing with an Islamic extremist group, is a terrible security bet—calling it delusional.

For. However, supporters argue that al-Sharaa has moved beyond his jihadist past. They cite his break with ISIS and al-Qaeda and his efforts to present himself as a pragmatic Syrian leader.

• Al-Sharaa himself has appealed to the idea of personal change, arguing that “A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties… This is human nature.”

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Enough About Iran (For Now)

The bald man with glasses on the left (seen pushing through the crowd to hold a burning American flag, chant “Death to America,” and stomp on the flag) is Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf. President Trump recently described him as one of the supposedly “more sensible people.”
Click for video

I’ve got a full page of analysis in my drafts covering the MOU’s implications, including the Pickaxe Mountain issue and the alleged “service fee” at the Strait.

But I’m going to hold off until next week, after the White House releases the official text.

For now, I’ll leave you with two things that stood out to me:

1. When asked why the US isn’t releasing the details of the MOU by Megyn Kelly, Vice President Vance said:

2. A US official reportedly said that:

Benefit of the Doubt

If I were giving the administration the benefit of the doubt, I’d assume some of the language was designed to get negotiations moving. Make some ambitious promises, calm markets down, and then get tougher later if needed.

So why was Trump so eager to announce the MOU this week?

• I think it's because the Federal Reserve is announcing its rate decision today under its new chair. This is totally a speculation though.

• Some analysts had speculated that persistently high oil prices could increase pressure for a rate hike. Now, oil prices are falling sharply since the MOU announcement.

• It’s possible that was part of Trump’s calculation, especially with both Japan and the European Central Bank having recently raised rates. In fact, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to its highest in 31 years.

🇵🇱🇷🇺 POLAND & RUSSIA
Kremlin Critic Killed

Russian artist Semyon Skrepetsky, a Kremlin critic who fled Russia in 2021, was shot dead Monday morning in Biała Podlaska, Poland, days after an anti-Putin protest in Berlin.

• Attack. Polish prosecutors said a gunman approached the 44-year-old near his home, fired at close range, then kept shooting after he fell. He died at the scene.

• Profile. Skrepetsky, whose real name was Robert Kuzovkov, used paintings and performances to mock Russian President Putin, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

• Detentions. Two Belarusian citizens were detained near the Belarusian consulate, but prosecutors have not charged them or confirmed they were tied to the killing.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Moscow Refinery Hit

Click for video

Ukraine's military campaign against Russia's oil money just got real close to Moscow: a drone strike halted operations at Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery, the biggest fuel supplier to the Moscow region.

• Damage. 2 industry sources said the strike damaged a primary refining unit that makes up 53% of the plant's capacity.

• Caveat. Emergency services claimed the fire was put out and operations were unaffected. However, the aforementioned sources contradicted that, while verified witness footage showed flames and black smoke.

• Fuel. Another Russian oil company, Tatneft, announced purchase caps after a separate refinery strike, while Russia-controlled Crimea and parts of southern Russia are already dealing with fuel shortages and queues.

🇺🇦🇺🇸 UKRAINE & US
The Price Tag

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) and US President Donald Trump (right) at the G7 Summit in France

Trump’s softer stance on Ukraine at the G7 came with strings attached: he signaled openness to tougher pressure on Russia and more support for Kyiv, while urging European allies to back his Iran diplomacy and help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.

• Weapons. G7 leaders pledged more air defenses, interceptors, and long-range capabilities for Ukraine, and said they may extend production licenses so Kyiv can make more weapons at home.

• Sanctions. Trump said the US could soon reimpose eased Russian oil sanctions because oil was flowing again through Hormuz.

• Caveat. Diplomats were relieved, but not convinced, since Trump has made pro-Ukraine noises before and then swung back toward pressuring Kyiv.

Hi Global Recap readers,

Today, I thought to myself:

But then, the internet said no. 👇🏼

👀 This Week So Far
Quick Catch-Up

• 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran-US: Iran and the US say they have agreed on an MOU framework for Friday talks in Geneva, but Vice President Vance and Iranian state-linked media are selling very different versions of what the deal actually contains (seemingly).

• 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia-UK: The UK boards the Russian shadow-fleet tanker SMYRTOS in the English Channel, its first UK-led armed stop of that kind against the oil network funding Russia's war.

• 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine hits a Russian state fuel reserve more than 700 km (435 miles) inside Russia, then Russia pounds Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Vance Won't Say No

Vice President Vance is trying to answer the backlash regarding the rumored $300 billion reconstruction package for Iran.

But his coy response is causing even more outrage.

Here's a quick TLDR:

• US taxpayers are not funding it.

• That still dodges the question people are actually asking: is Iran being offered access to a $300B reconstruction or investment package if it plays along?

Analysis Of Vance's Comments

Non-Denial. Asked in a CBS interview whether Iran would get access to a $300B reconstruction fund, Vance said:

In other words, he didn't say no, and people are taking this as Vance implicitly saying that such a package was offered to the Islamic regime of Iran.

Reframe. On Fox's Hannity, Vance again stressed that Iran would never get American taxpayer money. He then talked about sanctions relief, frozen assets, outside investment, and Iran being welcomed back into the world economy if it complies.

• People are picking this response apart too, saying that he only said that the American taxpayer-money won't be given.

• If the payoff comes via Gulf reconstruction money, sanctions relief, or investment access, then “it’s not US cash” argument isn’t really the clean distinction people seem to be looking for online.

Trump Complicates

President Trump tried to swat down the story in a Truth Social post, saying reports that the US is paying Iran "300 million Dollars" were fake news.

It’s probably a typo. But it also undercuts the denial, since the number at the center of the debate is $300 billion, not $300 million. Unsurprisingly, critics online are having a field day with it.

Additional Details

US Vice President JD Vance (left), US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (center), and US Special Envoy Jared Kushner (right).

Remember, much of the confusion and infighting surrounding the deal stems from the fact that the Trump administration has not publicly released the MOU’s details.

Interestingly: here’s an unexpected twist that’s forming among some Trump supporters (even those that grew increasingly critical of Trump's handling of the war):

• Rather than blaming Trump directly, they’re increasingly casting Vance as the sole "architect" behind the push for this “embarrassing deal.”

• Meanwhile, they are depicting other backers of the "deal" as voices in Trump’s ear who are clouding his judgment and leading him down the wrong path.

Split

On top of that, Axios reports the administration itself is split over whether Iran is likely to give enough back.

Here’s the reported fault line inside the administration:

• Backers. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner reportedly backed the MOU, arguing that the regime is unlikely to collapse anytime soon and that a negotiated deal remains the more realistic path.

• Skeptics.

  • Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth reportedly see things differently, believing sustained US pressure is significantly weakening the regime and could soon bring it down.

  • CIA Director Ratcliffe reportedly added another concern: intelligence assessments suggested Iran may not be willing to offer the kind of nuclear concessions needed to make a deal worthwhile.

• A widening rift. This rumor feels plausible, partly because Rubio has been largely absent from the public conversation around the deal recently. Fair or not, that perception is deepening an existing divide among Trump supporters, particularly between factions that favor Rubio and those that favor Vance as the Republican Party’s next presidential nominee.

Threats of Reprisal

According to a separate report, Rubio and Hegseth could face repercussions for opposing the deal, potentially putting their jobs at risk.

One senior White House official reportedly warned that continued resistance could carry personal or professional consequences.

🇷🇺🇬🇧 RUSSIA & UK
Russia Hits Starmer

A car on fire on Sir Keir Starmer’s street in London.

From left: Petro Pochynok, Roman Lavrynovych, and Stanislav Carpiuc.

A BBC investigation says Russia was behind arson attacks on a car once owned by UK PM Starmer, former home, and another property tied to him.

• Verdict. Roman Lavrynovych and Stanislav Carpiuc were convicted at the Old Bailey over the May 2025 fires. Petro Pochynok was acquitted.

• Handler. The job ran through a Russian-speaking Telegram contact known as "El Money" or "EL", who promised payment and wanted the attacks in the news.

• Caveat. The investigation traced EL to fake far-right and Muslim groups, other Russian-linked operations, and a possible 23-year-old Russian diplomat, Evgeny Lyukshin.

  • However, UK counter-terror police have not publicly proved a state-backed threat—saying that it cannot definitively prove Lyukshin is EL.

🇫🇷 FRANCE
G7 Gets Crowded

G7 leaders are meeting in Evian-les-Bains from June 15 to 17, with Ukraine, the Middle East, trade, and AI fighting for agenda space.

• Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy joins Tuesday as French President Macron pushes President Trump to keep backing Kyiv. Russia hit Ukrainian cities mere hours before the summit, killing 11.

• Iran. Trump arrived selling his tentative US-Iran deal. Leaders are watching Hormuz, the planned Geneva signing, and whether Iran performs.

  • President Macron recently said that allies are ready to deploy maritime mission to the Strait within days. Yes, after the war is over.

• Guests. Egypt, Qatar, and the UAE join Middle East talks. Brazil, India, Kenya, and South Korea were invited into some sessions too.

Hi Global Recap readers,

This is one behemoth of a newsletter. Sorry it took a bit longer to get out.

It took a bit long to trim as much as I could, while keeping the key details, nuances, and online reactions around the Iran–US agreement so you can get the full picture in one place.

With that, let’s get straight into it. 👇🏼

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Deal Agreed

President Trump announcing the completion of “the deal” with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Iran and the US have finally agreed on the details of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to finally start discussing various issues to end the war.

So does this mean the deal to discuss a deal has been signed? No.

That's scheduled for Friday, in Geneva, Switzerland.

MOU Terms

The challenge is that both sides have released their own versions of the MOU, and the details don’t fully match. Still, there appears to be a small area of overlap.

🇺🇸 The US version. Vice President Vance told Fox that the agreed terms are:

1. Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.

2. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

3. The US naval blockade will be lifted.

4. A “large-scale investment” initiative across the region will move forward (more on that shortly).

🇮🇷 The Iranian version. Iran’s state-linked Mehr News Agency describes a much broader agreement:

1. Iran would receive $12 billion in unfrozen assets before negotiations begin, with another $12 billion released during the 60-day negotiation period.

2. Oil and petrochemical sanctions would be suspended.

3. The naval blockade would be fully lifted within 30 days.

4. The US would commit to non-interference in Iranian affairs.

5. US forces would withdraw from areas surrounding Iran.

6. No new sanctions or military deployments would occur during negotiations.

7. An immediate ceasefire would take effect across all fronts, including Lebanon.

8. The Strait of Hormuz would reopen within 30 days under arrangements managed by Iran.

9. Iran would reaffirm its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to develop nuclear weapons.

10. A 60-day window would be used to negotiate a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the full removal of sanctions.

11. The US and its allies would present reconstruction plans worth at least $300 billion.

12. Iran’s missile program and support for regional proxy groups would be excluded from negotiations.

13. Final talks would not begin until the first $12 billion is released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the blockade is lifted.

14. A supervisory mechanism would oversee implementation, with any final agreement requiring approval through a UN Security Council resolution.

Issues

Twitter tweet

Needless to say, if the Iranian version is even remotely accurate, critics who argue the US gave away too much will feel vindicated. On the other hand, if it’s largely propaganda, the White House is effectively allowing Tehran to define the narrative by not publicly releasing the MOU’s contents.

• This lack of transparency is fueling frustration among conservatives as well

• Many are questioning why the administration has yet to formally explain what was actually agreed to.

But before going into that, let's talk about the common thread between the two versions—money.

Money Problems

Vice President Vance talking about the MOU agreement on Fox.
Click for video

First, let’s discuss the Iranian-linked claims that the US agreed to provide $12 billion upfront and another $12 billion during the talks.

• However, Vice President Vance has denied that characterization, saying any relief would be tied to Iranian compliance rather than provided unconditionally.

• Then there’s the reported $300 billion "reconstruction package."

• Notably, that figure may align with Vance’s reference to a forthcoming “large-scale investment” initiative. The obvious question is whether both sides are talking about the same thing.

Either way, the financial component deserves scrutiny, regardless of the administration approaching it.

• Back in 2023, the Biden administration faced heavy criticism from Republicans over plans to release $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds.

  • The administration argued the money was restricted to “humanitarian purposes” and subject to oversight.

  • Critics countered that money is fungible: freeing up resources in one area can allow spending elsewhere.

• That same logic applies here.

  • If reports of a $24 billion release are accurate, the sums involved would be roughly 4x larger than the amount that sparked controversy in 2023.

  • And if the reported $300 billion number is correct, it would be at least 50x.

Missing Text

Click for post

What’s making this even more infuriating for many Americans is what critics are openly calling gaslighting from the President and Vice President.

• Trump and Vance have recently blasted critics for reacting to what they describe as “fake information” surrounding the MOU.

• The problem is that much of that information is coming from the Iranian side because the administration still refuses to release the actual text of the agreement.

• For many critics, the response is straightforward: “if the information is fake, release the document.”

That’s why frustration is growing. Critics argue that the administration can’t simultaneously complain about people relying on Iranian claims while withholding the very information that would settle the debate. In their view, the White House is leaving a vacuum and then attacking people for trying to fill it.

Theories

As a result, critics have begun advancing two competing theories.

1. Hiding. The agreement contains details the administration would rather keep out of public view because they could damage Trump’s image as a tough negotiator and dealmaker.

2. Master Plan. Some provisions may have been included primarily to keep Iran engaged in negotiations while the US pursues a broader objective that has not yet been disclosed.

   • One example frequently cited is the reported $300 billion reconstruction commitment.

   • Some speculate that Iran may have been told such funding could be assembled from wealthy Arab states to bring Tehran to the table, only for the money to never fully materialize later, with responsibility ultimately shifted onto those countries.

🇮🇱🇱🇧 ISRAEL & LEBANON
Dangerous Precedent

Hezbollah drone in Northern Israel

Hezbollah command center being struck by Israel

Now that we’ve covered the Iran-US agreement, it’s worth looking at what happened immediately before the deal was announced.

1. On Sunday, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran was imminent.

2. Just hours later, Hezbollah launched several missiles and drones toward northern Israel—violating the ceasefire.

3. Israel responded by striking Beirut.

4. Iran then warned that it would respond by attacking Israel.

5. At that point, Trump publicly criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu, describing Hezbollah’s attack as "small and meaningless," suggesting Israel’s self-defensive measures were excessive.

Thoughts

I am sure this sequence of events looks sus to a lot of people.

• Since Hezbollah is widely viewed as an Iranian proxy, some commentators have speculated that Tehran may have encouraged the attack to create leverage ahead of the agreement.

• Under that theory, Iran effectively created the crisis and then positioned itself as the only actor capable of preventing further escalation, allowing it to seek concessions from Washington in return.

In fact, that's precisely the rumor that's floating around, after the Iranian state media claimed that the US urged Iran not to retaliate against Israel and offered various concessions in exchange—which supposedly included the $300 billion fund.

Twitter tweet

Those reports remain unverified, but they aren't stopping people from bringing up President Trump's past Twitter post and pointing out the irony. 👆🏼

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN & US
Cyber Tit For Tat

Image of utility bills shared by the Iranian hacker group.

First, we started getting reports that Iran-linked hackers claimed they breached California water systems. Then, in what looked almost like a tit-for-tat response, Iran reported a cyberattack that disrupted services at 4 major banks.

The timing is definitely sus, but so far there’s no evidence that the two incidents were connected or coordinated.

Details

California. Hacktivist group called Handala said it accessed Californian water systems in Bakersfield, Visalia, and Chico and published what it claimed was 5GB of data, including customer billing material.

• Limits. California Water Service said a preliminary scan found no signs of compromise in its IT, water production, or delivery systems. Outside cyber reporting points to billing or GPS-adjacent access, not confirmed water-control disruption.

Iran. Iran's banking coordination council said the bank attack hit shared communications infrastructure and temporarily affected services, with no customer data accessed or deleted.

🇷🇺🇬🇧 RUSSIA & UK
Shadow Fleet Boarded

The UK just boarded a Russian shadow-fleet oil tanker in the English Channel, turning sanctions enforcement from paperwork into an armed 6-hour stop at sea.

• Ship. The tanker is the SMYRTOS, which UK authorities say is part of the fleet Russia uses to move oil around sanctions and keep money flowing into the Ukraine war.

• First. The UK called it the first UK-led operation of its kind, with Royal Marine Commandos and National Crime Agency officers taking control.

• Next. The vessel is being held and monitored off England's south coast while investigators check the ship, its status, and any safety or environmental risk.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 RUSSIA & UKRAINE
Fuel, Then Fire

Ukraine's long-range drones hit a Rosrezerv fuel depot more than 700 km (435 miles) inside Russia, and the next night Russia hit Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine struck the Temp Combine in Rybinsk, a state reserve depot storing wartime fuel and petroleum products for Russia's military, railways, and emergency use.
From President Zelenskyy’s X post

Russia's barrage set the historic Dormition Cathedral at Kyiv Pechersk Lavra on fire, damaged residential sites in Kyiv, and killed 5 emergency workers in Kharkiv after a second strike hit them as they fought an earlier fire.

🇪🇺 EU
Accession Door Opens

President of Moldova Maia Sandu (left) and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy (right).

Ukraine and Moldova are moving into the first real phase of EU membership talks, after all 27 EU members agreed to open the first accession cluster with both countries.

The Luxembourg meetings are scheduled for Monday.