Good morning. The NFL Draft is officially in the books, and boyyyyyy was it terrible for fantasy.

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But luckily we’re here to sift through those crowded depth charts and pinpoint which players — both rookies and vets — saw their stocks rise or fall the most after this past weekend.

Let’s get after it…

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WINNERS 📈

The Price is Right

Jadarian Price // Getty Images

📈 Seahawks RB Jadarian Price became the first RB in NFL Draft history to be taken in Round 1 or Round 2 and never reach 125 touches in a single CFB season, per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. Is that a little terrifying? Sure. But we already knew he was unproven. What we didn’t know was that the reigning Super Bowl champs would take him 32nd overall to lead their backfield while Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL) rehabs.

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📈 Saints WR Jordyn Tyson joins a team in desperate need of a WR2 behind Chris Olave. There should be plenty of targets to go around, as the Saints led the NFL in no-huddle rate last year (22.7%), while their 2.2 plays per minute also paced the league, per Fantasy Life’s Adam Pfeifer. New Orleans also used shift-motion 63% of the time (5th-most), which should allow for plenty of free releases for the explosive rookie.

📈 Titans QB Cam Ward got his WR1 in 4th overall pick Carnell Tate. During Ward’s rookie year, we could see right away that he isn’t afraid to throw it deep or into tight coverage, and Tate led the FBS with five TDs on throws of 40+ yards, while also scoring six TDs on contested targets in 2025, per PFSN’s Juan Pablo Aravena. It’s a perfect fit.

📈 Ravens TE Mark Andrews is a major bounce back candidate in 2026. First, he signed a 3-year contract extension, then Isaiah Likely left for the Giants in free agency, and now — despite being linked to Kenyon Sadiq — Baltimore didn’t draft a TE until taking Matthew Hibner near the end of the 4th round. In four games without Likely since 2024, Andrews has run 79.2% of the routes, while sporting a solid 15% target share and 15.2% targets per route run. And perhaps more importantly, Andrews accounted for 27% of the Ravens’ end zone targets with Likely sidelined for the first three weeks of last season, per Adam Pfeifer.

📈 Mid/low-end starting RBs like Bhayshul Tuten, Tony Pollard, Cam Skattebo, David Montgomery and Jacory Croskey-Merritt all dodged a bullet in this year’s draft, thanks to the Cardinals taking Jeremiyah Love 3rd overall.🤯

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It’s worth noting that Tennessee and Washington nabbed the two Penn State RBs (Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, respectively), but it could’ve been a lot worse. Expect the vets to at least be solid RB2s for most of the year.

LOSERS 📉

Whatchu Talkin’ Bout, Willis?!

Malik Willis // Michael Owens, Getty Images — Illustration by Bryce Wood

📉 Dolphins QB Malik Willis needs some help. Miami had plenty of chances to take some offensive weapons, but instead settled with Caleb Douglas (Dane Brugler’s WR31) and Chris Bell (recovering from a torn ACL) in the 3rd round. I know there are still some Malik Washington truthers out there, but the weapons look bleak in South Beach.

📉 Eagles WR Makai Lemon had 75 of his 108 targets last season come in the middle of the field, per @DynastyZoltanFF, which isn’t Jalen Hurts’ strongsuit…

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📉 Cardinals RB Tyler Allgeier got cucked again. First, Bijan Robinson in Atlanta, and now Jeremiyah Love in Arizona. With James Conner and Trey Benson still in the fold, too, Allgeier likely won’t be much more than a thorn in the side of Love managers.

📉 Almost all rookie TEs got shafted. Kenyon Sadiq went to the Jets, Eli Stowers is stuck behind Dallas Goedert in Philly, Max Klare joins a crowded TE room with the Rams, and Sam Roush will be Chicago’s TE3. Not ideal.

📉 All Jets and Browns pass-catchers saw their stock drop as well, thanks to both teams loading up on 1st and 2nd round WRs/TEs. The Jets nabbed Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr., while the Browns bolstered their WR corps with KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. The picks were objectively smart, but also brutal for fantasy, given the teams’ current QB situations. Geno Smith and Shedeur Sanders/Deshaun Watson can’t support all these rookies, let alone Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor, Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin, too.

DYNASTY DEEP DIVES 🤿

You know the big names taken early in the draft, but in this section we’ll be looking at some later-round picks who have a chance to rise up their respective depth charts this fall.

Antonio Williams // Sporting News

Commanders WR Antonio Williams could provide an instant impact in the slot for Jayden Daniels, as the depth chart behind Terry McLaurin is WIDE open. Matt Harmon of Yahoo and Reception Perception loves the fit:

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Steelers WR Germie Bernard will be behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman in Pittsburgh — plus, his QB situation remains unknown with Aaron Rodgers still not committing to a return. But nevertheless, Mike McCarthy's primary slot WR has finished top-10 in fantasy points per game in 7 of his last 13 full seasons as an NFL head coach, per Scott Barrett.

Ravens WRs Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt will compete for a boundary WR spot next to Zay Flowers. 50% of Lane’s targets resulted in a 1st down or TD in 2025 (5th in this class), per Sharp Football Analysis’ Rich Hribar, and Sarratt turned 55.7% (10 of 18) of his red-zone targets into TDs last season, per Raymond Summerlin. Lane will likely have the edge given his better draft capital (3rd round vs. 4th round), but either guy could emerge.

Steelers RB Eli Heidenreich earned a cult-like following this draft season, given his insane receiving production at Navy and Christian McCaffrey-like athletic testing numbers. He was a 7th-round pick… so let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here. But The Ringer’s Danny Kelly thinks Heidenreich could earn a role similar to Kenneth Gainwell — who ran for 537 yards while catching 73 passes for 486 yards for Pittsburgh in 2025.

Mid-round rookie QBs like Carson Beck (ARI), Drew Allar (PIT), and Cade Klubnik (NYJ) all have very little ahead of them on their current depth charts. While many experts believe none of these guys will be successful pro QBs, they’re worth a dynasty stash in Superflex leagues in case they do end up starting at some point. If that happens, use them as trade bait immediately.

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POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Fantasy football winners, losers, best fits from the 2026 NFL Draft from The Athletic’s Jake Ciely for a comprehensive recap of all the major landing spots — whether good or bad.

📖 Read 5 sneaky players taken outside of Round 1 who have major fantasy football potential from Yahoo’s Justin Boone where he highlights names like Malachi Fields, Chris Bell, and other late-round picks who could surprise.

📖 Read Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points’ 2026 Dynasty Rookie Rankings if you’re getting prepped for an upcoming rookie draft.

📺️ Watch Philly snipe Pittsburgh from drafting Makai Lemon:

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TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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Good luck to those with upcoming rookie drafts — you can’t possibly be worse than Jags GM James Gladstone!

It’s time for us to hibernate until August, when shit really hits the fan. We’ll be back in your inbox 3x/week by then, getting you primed to dominate your re-draft leagues and bring home some hardware.🏆

See you then.

- Marcus

Good morning.

It’s Draft week!!

IYKYK

There are two types of fans this time of year: those who have a life and are just tuning in now for a crash course before the Draft, and those (like me) who have sent 47 unanswered dynasty trade offers already. Whichever bucket you fall into, we’ve got the expert insight you need to sound like a pro at the water cooler — all wrapped into a short and sweet 3-minute morning read.

Today’s topics are the WR and TE classes — which, unlike QB and RB, are actually pretty deep.

Let’s get after it…

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PROSPECT PREVIEW 🔎

Wide Receiver

Carnell Tate // Getty Images

Yet another Ohio State WR… Carnell Tate was never the top target for the Buckeyes (thanks to Jeremiah Smith), but he’s the WR1 on most draft experts’ boards. He doesn’t offer special athleticism after the catch (his 4.8 career YAC was -0.5 over expected after adjusting for his aDOT, per Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland), but his long frame (6’2” 192 lbs) and savvy route running should translate to the pros. Where Tate really separates himself is his contested catch rate — he hauled in 69% of contested targets (5th-highest in the McFarland’s Rookie Super Model database). And with 87% of his snaps coming from outside with just a 3% career drop rate, he's a legitimate boundary ‘X’ receiver who can win down the field and in traffic.

Despite giving the creepiest Combine press conference, Makai Lemon’s a rare alpha slot receiver who has “that dawg in him.” The one knock on his résumé is that 42% of his career receiving yards came on screens and slot fades (4th-highest among Round 1 WRs since 2015, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath). However, CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs points out that he averages an elite 3.34 YPRR if screens are removed, as well as 3.62 YPRR when lined up outside of the slot. He’s also the WR6 in yards per target on throws of 10+ air yards and avoided tackle rate on receptions. He’ll likely produce from the slot right away, with the ability to win outside as well later on, à la former USC WR, Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The last of the “Big 3” WRs in this class, Jordyn Tyson is by far the most polarizing of the bunch. His size (6’2” 203 lbs), route-running, and playmaking ability lead some to say he’s a top-tier WR1. When excluding screen plays, he drew an uncontested target on 26% of his career routes; that’s the best of any WR to be drafted in Round 1 since at least 2018, per Ryan Heath. But on the other hand, his career YAC per reception (excluding screens) would rank bottom-5 among all Round 1 WRs in Heath’s model. He also has some serious injury concerns (ACL/MCL/PCL tears in 2022, broken collarbone in 2024, and hamstring issues for the past year), but is trending up after looking healthy in his most recent workout.

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KC Concepcion is another slot receiver who brings versatility, explosiveness, and strong route-running ability. He broke out early for the Aggies in 2023, flashing the best Dominator Rating (0.43) of any Power Conference Receiver younger than 19 since 2004 — just ahead of Calvin Johnson (0.40), per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. He’s also a jack-of-all-trades, recording the most receiving TDs (25) by an FBS player with 400+ rushing yards and multiple rushing and punt return TDs in their college career, per Barrett. The biggest knock on Concepcion is his 6.5% career drop rate, which is high for a player who only saw 12% of his targets contested, per Dwain McFarland, but he has the talent to make some noise right away.

At 6’3 5/8” 212 lbs, Denzel Boston is a beast. He’s a prototypical ‘X’ receiver with elite ball skills, outstanding contested-catch ability (76.9% rate in 2025), and reliable hands (only five total drops in his entire college career), per The Fantasy Footballers’ Julia Papworth. If he doesn’t pan out in the NFL, it’ll be because he’s more quick than fast — in 2024, he had 333 yards after the catch (19th in the class), but it dipped to just 305 in 2025 (39th in the class). In the right environment, though, he can be a major deep threat and red zone weapon.

Best of the Rest

• Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana) is a physical slot receiver with elite contact balance and YAC-ability who has drawn comparisons to Deebo Samuel. He also had the greatest catch in college football last season:

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• Elijah Sarratt (Indiana), AKA “Waffle House” because he’s always open, is a highly productive prospect with excellent body control and contested catch ability, despite having below-average vertical speed and separation metrics.
  

• Chris Brazzell II (Tennessee) is an explosive, 6’4” 198 lbs field-stretching wideout with impressive long speed (4.37-second 40-yard dash), but he comes from the gimmicky Vols offense that’s produced irrelevant NFL WRs like Dont’e Thornton, Cedric Tillman, and Jalin Hyatt.

POLL 📊

Tight End

Kenyon Sadiq // NCAA.com

Kenyon Sadiq was built in a lab. At 6’3” 241 lbs, the 21-year-old had one of the best days ever by a TE at the Combine:

40-Yard Dash: 4.39 (best ever by a TE)
Vertical Jump: 43.5’’ (2nd-best ever by a TE)
Broad Jump: 11’1’’ (3rd-best ever by a TE)

On top of that, he hit 23.2 mph, which is as fast as Jahmyr Gibbs (despite being 40+ lbs heavier) and has the 6th best run blocking grade among TEs in this class, per Warren Sharp. His receiving numbers aren’t as impressive as recent TE prospects like Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, etc., but he should still be no later than the 6th overall pick in rookie drafts this spring.

Eli Stowers is an athletic freak in his own right, recording a 11’3” broad jump (a TE record) and a 45.5” vertical jump (2nd-best in history).​ The biggest question for him will be the system he lands in — Stowers struggles to hold up when blocking and profiles much more as a big slot than an traditional inline ‘Y’ TE. Luckily, we don’t care about blocking in fantasy football (as long as it doesn’t limit his snap count).

Max Klare is a well-rounded TE prospect who can win downfield and hold his own when blocking. He’s shifty as hell when running routes and can line up anywhere on the field. The only question with him is his ceiling, as he dominated at Purdue in 2024, but took a backseat to Smith and Tate for the Buckeyes in 2025, recording just 43 receptions for 448 yards and two TDs.

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Yet another athletic specimen in this year’s TE class… Sam Roush’s 9.94 Relative Athletic Score (out of a possible 10.00) ranked 10th out of 1471 TEs from 1987 to 2026. At 6’6” 267 lbs with 4.7 speed and a 10’6” broad jump, he certainly has the size and athleticism to dominate at the next level. However, drops are a concern (seven in 2025 alone, per FantasyPros’ Matthew Jones), and despite his impressive frame, he has short (31”) arms, which limits his catch radius and makes it difficult for him to secure off-target throws.

A former high school basketball star, Michael Trigg has the hands and body control to make an impact in the NFL. He’s a potential downfield threat, with 52% of his targets coming 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage and posting the 5th-best targets per route run (31%) vs. man coverage in Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model. While Trigg can attack deep, he wasn't prolific after the catch and battled drops. His 4.9 YAC was -0.3 over expected after adjusting for aDOT, his 45% contested catch rate on 42 opportunities was slightly below average (48%), and his 7.3% drop rate was +1.3 percentage points over expected, per McFarland. He also had a sad vert (27 1/2”) and there are concerns with his worth ethic. Nevertheless, he’s still worth a dart throw late in rookie drafts, especially in TE-premium.

Best of the Rest

• Justin Joly (NC State) has exceptional hands (4.3% drop rate), elite contested-catch ability, and versatile receiving skills, but he needs to improve his blocking to secure a full-time NFL role.

• Oscar Delp (Georgia) has elite straight-line speed (4.49 40-yard dash) and fluidity for his size, but has limited production and is an unproven blocker.

• Jack Endries (Texas) is a reliable, high-IQ prospect with strong hands and proven underneath receiving skills, but — you guessed it! — he needs to work on his blocking to earn playing time.

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read the Footballguys’ 2026 Rookie Guide, which you can access for FREE when you make an account! The guide features in-depth statistics, rankings, and expert film-based analysis on over 100 NFL prospects.

📖 Read Brett Whitefield of Fantasy Points’ FREE 2026 NFL Draft Prospect Guide for data-driven player profiles, rankings, and more.

📖 Check out Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio ($) for the most comprehensive film-based preview of this year’s draft class. Waldman’s been publishing his RSP for over 20 years now and is your favorite fantasy football analyst’s favorite fantasy football analyst.

📺️ Watch Drew Brees tell this story of former NFL guard Carl Nicks:

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TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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Just three days till the NFL Draft! We’ll be back next Monday to recap the winners and losers so you can be primed for your upcoming rookie drafts.

See you then.

- Marcus

Good morning.

Mid-April hits different… winter is finally (hopefully) behind us, Jim Nantz was in our ears calling The Masters, and NFL Draft season is officially HERE!

That means we kick off our position previews today, starting with QBs and RBs. These are pretty thin positions — and by thin, I mean there might only be one player from each position that’s actually worth a damn. But Brock Purdys and Bucky Irvings are always lurking, and it’s our job to find them.

Let’s get after it…

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PROSPECT PREVIEW 🔎

That’s My Quarterback

QB1 // Michael Reaves, Getty Images

The Heisman Trophy winner is coming off a dominant year where he threw for 3,535 yards and 41 TDs while adding 276 yards and seven scores on the ground, leading the Hoosiers to a National Championship. Despite his cornball personality, Mendoza’s built like a brick shithouse at 6’5” 236 lbs and is a gamer, coming up with clutch plays when it matters most. While his arm is adequate, it isn’t elite (his deep throw rate of 16.5% was below average, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak). But his calling card as a pro will be his accuracy — PFF charted 69% of his throws as accurate and he earned a 19.4% “accurate plus” rate. Those marks rank 8th and 11th out of 111 individual seasons from 1st-round QBs since 2012, per Dvorchak. Mendoza’s likely to sit behind Kirk Cousins at first in Vegas, but he should find success quickly in HC Klint Kubiak’s QB-friendly scheme.

Through his first eight games of 2025, Simpson looked worthy of an early 1st round pick — he averaged 8.4 yards per attempt with a 20-1 TD-INT ratio while completing 67.8% of his passes. He showed poise, accuracy, decent arm talent, and fun improvisational skills:

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But his final seven games told a different story, as he averaged 6.5 yards per attempt with an 8-4 TD-INT ratio on a 60.6% completion rate, per FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz. While much of that can be attributed to injuries and severe gastritis, it’s nevertheless concerning — especially since he’s already 23 and only has 15 starts to his name.

The son of a a former NFL QB and current OC of the Saints, Nussmeier isn’t afraid to rip balls into tight coverage, breaking out as a Junior in 2024 with 4,043 passing yards (64.2%, 7.7 YPA), 29 TDs, and 12 INTs. Unfortunately, he really regressed as a Senior — his TD% of only 4.2% was down from 5.5% in 2024, and his YPA dropped from 7.7 to 6.7, per Player Profiler’s Wyatt Bertolone. His deep ball rate also dropped from 16.4% to 10.4% and his screen rate increased from 12.3% to 20%, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown. Much of that was likely due to an abdominal injury he suffered in the preseason, so the LSU offense relied upon more quick hitters and screens, with Nussmeier’s arm strength becoming variable. Although his 2025 season left a lot to be desired, it’s worth noting he did rebound at the Senior Bowl this past January, looking healthy and winning the game's MVP award.

At 6’5” 240 lbs with a rocket arm and good mobility (8.9 yards per scramble in 2025), Allar looks like he was made in a lab. While many had him projected to be a top-10 pick at this time last year, the wheels really fell off in 2025. His 5.1% big-time throw rate from the previous season was cut in half to 2.5%, per Kyle Dvorchak. Allar also had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, and in his 7th game of the year, he suffered a season-ending broken ankle. His tools will no doubt get some GMs and head coaches rocked up, but the film just hasn’t shown a QB that can succeed in the NFL.

Payton is 6’3” 232 lbs with a left-handed cannon and legit 4.6 speed — he had 29 carries of 10+ yards and six carries of 30+ yards in 2025, per The Athletic’s Dane Brugler. His 120 rushing attempts, 894 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs last season would be a DREAM for fantasy football. Oh, and he can sling it, too… Payton led all D1 passers in completion rate (61.4%) and YPA (21.4) with the 3rd-highest accurate throw rate (52.8%) on deep shots, per Kyle Dvorchak. But like most “toolsy” prospects, Payton lacks polish. According to Brugler, the NDSU product often holds the ball too long, has poor mechanics, and gets frazzled under pressure. He’s definitely a project at the NFL level and will likely need to sit for a while before getting an opportunity to start.

Best of the Rest

• Taylen Green (Arkansas) is 6’6” 227 lbs and runs a 4.36. Now, he did commit a combined 37 turnovers the past two seasons (20 INTs, 17 fumbles), but it’s hard not to be excited when you picture D.K. Metcalf playing QB:

• Carson Beck (Miami) has been an extremely successful QB at both Georgia and The U, but he likely doesn’t have the frame, tools, or mentality to succeed in the NFL.

• Cade Klubnik (Clemson) is an athletic prospect and was the #1 recruit coming out of high school. He broke out with over 4,000 total yards and 43 TDs in 2024, but regressed in 2025 and looks more likely to be a backup as a pro.

What’s Not to Love?!

Jeremiyah Love // The Athletic

In order for a RB to be taken in the top-10, he needs to be viewed as an almost “generational” prospect — and Love fits the bill. He notched 39 carries of 10+ yards (4th most in the country) and scored 21 TDs (also 4th) for Notre Dame last season, per The Ringer’s Danny Kelly. Love also racked up 56 missed tackles forced last year (14th) and averaged 4.5 yards after contact per attempt (11th), per PFF. He’s a complete back with good size (6’0” 212 lbs), elite speed (4.36), and pass-catching chops, too (aligned in the slot or out wide with 10.6-16.6% of his snaps, per Derek Brown).

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Yup, Jeremiyah Love’s backup is likely the 2nd-best back in this class. Price averaged 6.0 YPC in three seasons with the Fighting Irish and punched in 21 rushing TDs during that span. While he always played 2nd fiddle on offense, he did shine on special teams, totalling three return TDs on only 22 kickoffs, per Player Profiler’s Wolf Trelles-Heard. The downside for fantasy is that Price isn’t very proven in the passing game, with just 15 receptions in 41 college games. But if he finds himself going as high as 32nd to Seattle, he could make some serious noise.

Coleman is a head coach’s dream — a former team captain with zero career fumbles and just one drop, per Kelly. The Huskies RB can run between the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield (six catches of 20+ yards in 2025, 3rd most among FBS RBs, per Dane Brugler), and hold his own in pass protection, too. So why might he only be a 3rd round pick? He just doesn’t have the juice. He’s built like a bowling ball (5’8” 220 lbs), and only 12.8% of his 2025 carries resulted in a 10+ yard rush, per Brugler.

At an impressive 6’2” 228 lbs, Mike Washington Jr. clocked the fastest speed (21.21 MPH) among all backs at this year’s Senior Bowl, and then went on to run a blazing 4.33 40 at the Combine. His perfect Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 10.00 ranks him as the most athletic RB since at least 1987! The NFL loves speed, so those numbers will surely shoot Washington up draft boards, but there are some concerns with his game — he’s an upright runner with some tightness in his movements, and he didn’t breakout until his Redshirt Senior season as a 22-year-old.

Johnson exploded on the scene for the Huskers in 2025 with 1,451 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs, 46 receptions, 370 receiving yards, and three receiving TDs. He has elite footwork, vision, and a well-rounded skillset, making him an ideal passing down back and PPR target in fantasy. Derek Brown describes his running style the best, saying “Johnson runs like he chugs 12 Monsters and cheeks four Zyns weekly pregame.” But at just 202 lbs and allowing 15 pressures on 125 pass blocking snaps, he’ll need to improve his protection skills to see the field.

Best of the Rest

• Nick Singleton (Penn State) is a former 5-star recruit and an athletic specimen, but has been largely disappointing in his Penn State career.

• His teammate, Kaytron Allen (Penn State) has four straight seasons of over 860 rushing yards and has been the more productive back for the Nittany Lions, despite lacking in athleticism. He isn’t much of a pass-catcher, though, and is likely to be a short yardage back at the next level.

• Adam Randall (Clemson) is in the Antonio Gibson/Tyrone Tracy mold as a former WR turned RB. Although he’s raw, he’s 6’2” 235 lbs with a track background and excellent hands.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Did you hear the biggest news in the NFL last week?! … Dane Brugler’s The Beast dropped! It’s hands-down the most in-depth NFL Draft document out there. It has everything from stats, to scouting reports, to the fact that Drew Allar’s family dog is named “Ozzie” after legendary Browns TE Ozzie Newsome.🤯

📖 Read Derek Brown of FantasyPros’ Dynasty Rookie Draft QB Primer for thorough scouting reports, insights, and comps for all the top QBs in this year’s draft.

📖 Read The 1.01 In 2026 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Drafts Debate: Fernando Mendoza vs Jeremiyah Love from FantasyLife’s Jake Trowbridge, where he evaluates each side of the Mendoza/Love debate to determine who the 1.01 should be in your dynasty superflex rookie drafts this summer.

📺️ Watch Peter Schrager gives his top 5 MOST POLARIZING players in the 2026 NFL Draft from ESPN’s Get Up to get you hyped for Draft Day:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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Just 10 days till the NFL Draft! Or as us Browns fans call it, the Super Bowl.😞

See you next Monday.

- Marcus

Good morning. Looks like Jesus wasn’t the only one rising from the dead this weekend, because the Morning Huddle is BACK!

I got tired of staring at my dynasty lineup like the Wolverine meme, so I’ll be back in your inbox every Monday in April, covering the fantasy angle for all things NFL — free agency, trades, the draft, and learning how to pronounce Etienne.

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Let’s kick things off today with some familiar faces in new places as we recap the biggest risers and fallers of the 2026 Free Agency period…

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RISERS 📈

Kenneth Kingdom

Kenneth Walker // Kansas City Chiefs

📈 Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker is finally free from the shackles of Zach Charbonnet! With his backfield mate injured during last season’s playoff run, Walker averaged a dominant 23.4 half-PPR fantasy PPG, per FantasyPros. While the Chiefs have been either the 1st or 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL for five straight seasons, Walker will still benefit from a bellcow workload and major TD upside. Plus, Andy Reid called zone blocking on 59% of their designed runs last season (4th-highest), and Walker was one of just 12 RBs to average at least 5.0 YPC on zone blocking concepts last season, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield. It’s an ideal fit.

📈 Jags RB Bhayshul Tuten is expected to lead the team’s backfield after Travis Etienne signed with the Saints. He showed promising signs last season, scoring on five of his seven goal line carries and breaking a tackle every five carries. While Chris Rodriguez was brought in to contribute, Tuten’s explosiveness should vault him to lead back status on an offense that scored TDs on 27% of its drives, the 6th-highest rate in the NFL, per FantasyLife’s Adam Pfeifer.

📈 Dolphins QB Malik Willis will get another shot as a starter, and while his ability to be a successful real life QB is TBD, his rushing ability gives him major fantasy upside. In a small sample size last year, Willis was the best QB in fantasy on a per-play basis, scoring 52.2 fantasy points on just 47 dropbacks for an incredible 1.11 FP/DB, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley. While that pace isn’t sustainable — especially with a WR corps composed of Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell — we can still expect top-5 upside on a weekly basis.

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📈 The top pass-catchers from the 2025 Bears will all shoot up draft boards after D.J. Moore was traded to Buffalo. It was only two seasons ago that Moore was the WR7 — with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent at QB. That year was also the last time Josh Allen targeted one option more than 100 times (Stefon Diggs — 160). And Diggs was WR9 overall, per The Athletic’s Jake Ciely.

Meanwhile in Chicago, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland all get bumps, too. Loveland ended last year on a tear over his final 14 games, turning his team-high 96 targets into 65/852/6 receiving (13.4 fantasy PPG). This level of production would’ve made him the PPR TE4, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield. As for the wideouts, it’s hard not to hop on the Burden hype train after he posted the most yards per route run (2.8) by a rookie WR in Next Gen Stats history, and Odunze was having a mini-breakout himself before his foot injury last season (WR23 across Weeks 1-12). All three should get plenty of opportunities in Ben Johnson’s explosive scheme.

📈 Similarly, Bucs WRs Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan are all risers after veteran alpha Mike Evans signed with the 49ers. The year-two breakout for Egbuka looks especially promising, given his numbers without Evans last season, per FantasyPros:

• 8.56 targets per game (up from 6.25)

• 4.0 receptions per game (up from 3.38)

• 63 receiving yards per game (up from 46.4)

• 12.3 fantasy points per game (up from 10.4)

Others worth noting:

• Lions TE Sam LaPorta and Falcons TE Kyle Pitts should thrive in their new offensive schemes. LaPorta gets OC Drew Petzing, whose system helped Trey McBride gobble up 422 targets the last three seasons, while Pitts gets HC Kevin Stefanski, whose offense ranked no lower than 7th in total TE targets and no lower than 8th in TE target rate in his six years calling plays for the Browns, per Roto Street Journal’s Nick Traicoff.
  

• Vikings QB Kyler Murray gets a coaching boost with Kevin O’Connell, who’s made it work with just about any QB not named J.J. McCarthy.
  

• Chargers RB Omarion Hampton could flirt with top-5 RB upside in new OC Mike McDaniel’s proven run scheme.
  

• Colts pass-catchers Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs should all benefit from the departure of Michael Pittman.
  

• Giants TE Isaiah Likely and Commanders TE Chig Okonkwo will be intriguing late-round flyers in their new homes.

FALLERS 📉

Breece Fall

Breece Hall // Michael Owens, Getty Images

📉 Jets RB Breece Hall could’ve been the hottest free agent on the market, but the star RB will be stuck in New York for at least one more season after getting slapped with the franchise tag. If you took away everyone’s TDs, Hall would’ve been the RB10 last season. But sadly, as part of a Jets offense with few scoring opportunities, he finished as the RB20, per Yahoo’s Joel Smyth.

📉 Saints RB Alvin Kamara only topped 60 scrimmage yards in three of his first 10 games last year, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone, before injuries brought an early end to his season. That, combined with the team’s signing of Travis Etienne, signal an end to his run as the Saints’ RB1. Some speculated he could retire this offseason, but HC Kellen Moore recently said he plans on having Kamara in the RB room with Etienne. Regardless, his years as a fantasy starter are in the rearview mirror.

📉 Broncos RB R.J. Harvey was primed to take a year two leap as the team’s clear-cut RB1, but the re-signing of J.K. Dobbins put a damper on that. As the team’s lead back in 2025, Dobbins finished 6th in rushing YPG (77.2) and 3rd in explosive run rate (7.8%) among 49 RBs who had 100+ carries, per Tom Brolley. He’ll remain a thorn in the side of Harvey managers in 2026, too.

📉 Steelers WR DK Metcalf was largely unusable for most of last year, finishing outside of the top-25 scoring WR on a weekly basis in 10-of-15 games, per Graham Barfield — and that was with Calvin Austin as the team’s WR2! With Michael Pittman now joining the fold, expect Metcalf to be a WR3 at best in 2026.

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📉 Patriots QB Drake Maye is in dire need of an alpha WR following the release of Stefon Diggs, so naturally, the team went out and got…… Romeo Doubs?! Doubs is a fine outside WR, as he hauled in 12 of his 22 contested targets (54.5%) last season, while scoring on a solid 6.3% of his career red zone targets (10 of 157), per Tom Brolley. But as a Drake Maye dynasty manager, I’ll be pissed if New England doesn’t add a Day 1 or 2 WR in the draft, or trade for a bigger name like A.J. Brown or Brian Thomas Jr.

Others worth noting:

• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton’s value took a hit following the trade for Jaylen Waddle. He’ll drop down to WR3 territory.
  

• Bucs RB Bucky Irving is sure to lose receiving work to the newly signed Kenneth Gainwell, who ranked 5th in target share (14.9%) and receiving YPG (28.6), 11th in yards per route run (1.60), and 8th in 1st downs per route run (0.076) last season, per FantasyPros.
  

• All Cardinals RBs will be risky in drafts, as it’s looking like a true committee. James Conner is aging out, but reworked his contract to stay with the team. They also signed Tyler Allgeier, and Trey Benson remains in the mix, too.
  

• Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is one of the most efficient TEs in fantasy when he’s on the field, but opportunities will still be hard to come by in 2026 — the team re-signed Dawson Knox and traded for D.J. Moore, while also stating that “load management” will remain a possibility for the frequently injured TE.
  

• Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is still rehabbing from his 3rd (!!!) ACL tear, and now may lose his job to Tua Tagovailoa.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read 126 Things I Learned Doing 2026 Fantasy Football Projections from Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola for surprising insights like the fact that Bucky Irving didn't see a single carry inside the five-yard line last season, or that Matthew Stafford's 7.7% TD rate was the 6th highest among 289 qualifying QBs over the last 10 years!!

📖 Read Fantasy Football Offseason Research: 2026 Coaching Changes from Roto Wire’s Jim Coventry, where he looks at the most impactful coaching changes of the offseason and how those moves could shape offensive production for fantasy managers.

📖 Read Fantasy Football Offseason Moves from The Athletic’s Dalton Del Don, Jake Ciely, Andy Behrens and Michael Salfino for breakdowns on all the trades and signings this offseason that you might’ve missed.

📺️ Watch Rich Eisen’s Annual Breakdown of the NFL Owners Meeting Head Coaches Group Photo😂:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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Man, it felt good to talk some ball. Let’s do it again next Monday as we begin our Draft Preview newsletters, starting with QBs and RBs.

See you then.

- Marcus

Good morning.

Hope Santa was good to you! But if you started Jahmyr Gibbs, I’m sorry to say you must be on the naughty list…

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With 11 games still to go, there’s plenty of time to turn things around. That’s why we’re here with our FINAL newsletter of the season to give you the starts and sits you need to bring home the hardware.

STARTS & SITS 🧐

It’s the Championship, so first and foremost: START YOUR STUDS. You don’t want to lose knowing you benched a proven starter for this week’s most hyped up sleeper pick. But for all those “tweeners” on your roster, we found some insight that should help…

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence // Getty Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence @ IND: He’s scored at least 23.1 fantasy points five games in a row, including Week 14 against Indy when he dropped 23.4. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 20th in EPA per dropback allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak, and were just dismantled by Brock Purdy for 295 passing yards and five TDs.

Brock Purdy vs. CHI: Purdy has now thrown for 590 yards and eight TDs over the last two weeks, while rushing for 55 yards during that span. He should keep it rollin’ against a Bears defense that allows the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Caleb Williams @ SF: The 49ers have allowed seven of the past 11 QBs to score at least 21.1 fantasy points, including Philip Rivers last week, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield @ MIA: The Dolphins are a top-5 run funnel by pass rate over expected allowed (-2.1%) and blitz at a top-3 rate (35.6%). That’s bad news for Mayfield, who has experienced -83% and -63% efficiency reductions to his adjusted net yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback when blitzed this year, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Bryce Young vs. SEA: He was a solid streaming candidate last week, but don’t trust him today against the Seahawks, who have allowed the 9th-fewest TD passes this season, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Jaxson Dart @ LV: This one’s tough — if he’s your only guy, you can start Dart in a soft matchup against the Raiders. But the rookie has just three designed carries and is averaging only 30 rushing yards per game in three games since Brian Daboll was fired, per Kyle Dvorchak. His ceiling just isn’t what it used to be.

😴 Sleepers

Jacoby Brissett @ CIN: The Bengals defense has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to QBs this season. They’ve surrendered 28 TD passes, tied for 3rd-most in the league, and give up the 4th-most passing yards per game (246.8), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith. Seven opposing QBs have already posted top-12 finishes against them, so look for Brissett to do the same.

Tyler Shough @ TEN: He’s hit at least 17 fantasy points in four straight games and had a career-high 308 passing yards last weekend against the Jets. He’ll look to stay hot against the Titans, who have allowed the 7th most points to the QB position this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Running Back

Ashton Jeanty // raiders.com

✅ Start ‘Em

Ashton Jeanty vs. NYG: The Giants have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing RBs over the past five weeks (+8.1), as well as the most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.88) of any team over the full season, per Ryan Heath. That’s huge for Jeanty, considering these splits:

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Kenneth Gainwell AND Jaylen Warren @ CLE: Warren has found the end zone five times in his last five outings, while Gainwell has become a key piece in the passing attack with at least five receptions in five of his last six appearances. Meanwhile, the Browns’ run defense has crumbled — they’ve let seven straight starting RBs post at least 70 yards and a TD against them — with five of those backs clearing the 100-yard mark, per Justin Boone.

Michael Carter @ CIN: “He is the unquestioned lead back in Arizona headed into a Week 17 matchup with a Bengals team giving up a league-high 156 yards per game on the ground.” — Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport

❌ Sit ‘Em

Rico Dowdle vs. SEA: He’s been slumping since Chuba Hubbard’s return, and I wouldn’t expect it to get much better against a Seahawks D that’s allowed the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs and hold opponents to a league-best 3.5 yards per carry, per Jody Smith.

Breece Hall vs. NE: He hasn’t hit nine fantasy points in any of the last three weeks, while averaging just 3.0 yards per carry since Week 12. On top of that, he’s recorded just four receptions for 23 yards through the air in the last three games played with QB Brady Cook, per Michelle Magdziuk.

All Saints RBs @ TEN: It was Taysom Hill who ended up leading the Saints in carries and rushing yards last week, while also throwing a TD pass and finishing 3rd in receiving yards. On top of that, the Titans have allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards and the fewest yards before contact to RBs since Week 12, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Rhamondre Stevenson @ NYJ: Even with TreVeyon Henderson clearing concussion protocol, you can still start Stevenson in a pinch this week. He’s still played more snaps than Henderson since Week 8 (63% to 56%) and will face a Jets defense that’s allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Blake Corum @ ATL: He’s scored at least 13 fantasy points in four straight games and will now take on a Falcons D that’s allowed the 9th-most fantasy points on average to the RB position since Week 5, per Michelle Magdziuk.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore // ESPN

✅ Start ‘Em

D.J. Moore @ SF: He’s topped 21 fantasy points in each of the last two games without Rome Odunze (foot), and should continue to produce in this potential shootout with the Niners. The game’s over/under (52.5) is the 2nd-highest of this week’s slate, behind only ARI @ CIN (53.5).

Jauan Jennings vs. CHI: “Jennings has found the end zone in six of the past seven games, and he's a top-15 fantasy receiver since Week 12. The 5th-year veteran should keep that hot streak going in a big game against the Bears, who have allowed the 10th-most PPR points to WRs this season.” — Gary Davenport

Jakobi Meyers @ IND: During the Jags’ six-game win streak, Meyers has averaged 13.9 fantasy PPG. He brings a very safe floor and has some clear upside. Plus, the Colts have struggled against receivers, allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards to the position this season, per Michael Florio.

❌ Sit ‘Em

All Bucs WRs @ MIA: One of them is bound to catch a TD and prove us wrong, but it’s best to fade this passing game considering Mayfield’s previously mentioned numbers vs. the blitz, and the fact that Miami has allowed the 8th-fewest PPR points to WRs, per Gary Davenport.

Khalil Shakir vs. PHI: Shakir has scored 9.6 PPR points or less in three of his past four games and has just one TD since Week 8. He also has five targets or less in four games in a row. Meanwhile, Philly has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Marvin Harrison Jr. @ CIN: The matchup is tempting, but Maserati Marv has missed four of the last six games and managed just one catch on three targets last week. He’s been surpassed by Michael Wilson and is no better than the 3rd option in this passing attack.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell vs. NE: “Even with Brady Cook on the sticks, Mitchell has earned 40% of the Jets’ air yards and 23% of the targets. Mitchell has a 29.5% 1st-read target share and has seen a 3rd of the team’s end zone looks.” — Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Williams @ NYJ: The Patriots ruled out Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and placed Mack Hollins (abdomen) on IR on Saturday, while DeMario Douglas (hamstring) is questionable. That should open the door for Williams, who only has seven catches this season, but has made some big plays with 189 yards, three TDs, and three games of double-digit fantasy points in his last six contests, per DraftKings’ Zach Thompson.

Tight End

J.J. // Brandon Sloter, Icon Sportswire

✅ Start ‘Em

Juwan Johnson @ TEN: With injuries in the receiving corps, Johnson caught eight of his nine targets for 89 yards last week. Now, he gets a Titans defense that’s been gashed by TEs lately, giving up 8-88-1 to George Kittle in Week 15, 8-114-1 to Harold Fannin Jr. in Week 14 and 3-45-1 to Brenton Strange in Week 13, per Justin Boone.

Colston Loveland @ SF: The rookie posted a season-best 82% route rate last week, but it didn’t amount to much production. That should change tonight, as the Niners defense ranks in the bottom-10 in receptions, yards and TDs allowed to TEs since losing Fred Warner, per USA Today’s Tom Viera.

Tyler Warren vs. JAX: The Jags have deployed the 4th-highest rate of zone coverage (79.0%), and Warren averages quadruple the yards per route run against zone coverage (2.16) as he does against man (0.54), per Ryan Heath.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Dallas Goedert @ BUF: He’s tough to sit given how productive he’s been lately, but Buffalo holds opposing TE to a league-low in receptions per game (2.8) and the fewest schedule adjusted fantasy PPG (-5.8). Just three TEs have finished among the top-12 weekly scorers vs. Buffalo all year, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Dalton Kincaid vs. PHI: “Not only is he a part-time receiver, this is the worst possible matchup. The Eagles allow a league-low 30.7 yards per game to TEs.” — Barfield

Brenton Strange @ IND: Since Week 10, Indy has held TEs to the 12th-fewest yards per target and the 8th-fewest fantasy PPG, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Hunter Henry @ NYJ: Three TEs in the past four games scored at least 15.2 PPR points against New York, per Jamey Eisenberg, and Henry should see a boost in targets given all the injuries New England’s WR corps.

Mike Gesicki vs. ARI: “He's the 3rd option behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the matchup with Arizona, which has allowed the 8th-most fantasy PPG to the position, is strong.” — Tom Viera

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 23-24-1

Chasing Points

🥇 Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD (-150)

• Arizona has lost seven consecutive games and rank last in scoring defense since Week 6 with 31.8 points allowed per game. More importantly, the Cards rank bottom-10 in passing defense with 224.1 yards allowed per contest, per CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani.

🥈 Chris Olave OVER 5.5 receptions (-105)

• “Olave is coming off a 10-catch performance and ranks 5th in the NFL in targets this season, making his reception volume one of the more reliable pieces of the New Orleans offense.” — FTN Fantasy’s Marshall Gershon

🥉 Eagles +1.5 @ Bills (-110)

• Buffalo ranks 31st in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.4) this season, and it has struggled when favored so far this season. Buffalo is just 5-8 against the spread as a favorite in 2025, and the Eagles have only played one game where they were close to an underdog, winning outright in a pick'em scenario against the Green Bay Packers, per SI’s Peter Dewey.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Week 17 Matchups That Matter from Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola for the most important matchup data to consider when making Week 17 start/sit decisions, including implied points, projected plays, WR/CB matchups, and adjusted fantasy points allowed.

📖 Read Everything fantasy football managers need to know for Week 17 from The Athletic’s Andy Behrens for injury updates, weather insights, rankings, matchups, and more.

📖 Read Predicting 2026's overall QB1, WR1, RB1 and TE1 from PFF’s Ryan Conway if you’re already looking ahead to next year. In this article, Conway flags players who could potentially upend fantasy seasons and make you reassess everything you think you know.

🎙️Listen to Starters to WIN Your Fantasy Championship! Start/Sit Advice Week 17 2025 from The Audible, where Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom preview this week’s games and offer fantasy insights to help you make critical lineup decisions.

📺 Watch the hilarious new IHOP fantasy football-themed commercial starring Malik Nabers:

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TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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From the bottom of our hearts, we want to thank you so much for making us a part of your weekly routine. We genuinely appreciate all your feedback and support throughout the years to help us make the Morning Huddle the best fantasy football newsletter in the biz.👊

We’ll see you again in 2026 to get you ready to defend your title. Until then, have a Happy New Year and GO GET THAT W!🏆 We’re excited to hear how many Morning Huddlers finish as champs this year!

- Marcus

Merry Christmas.🎅 

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Especially if you’re in your fantasy football championship. And if you’re looking for a reason to ignore your Uncle Jim talk about 5G conspiracies at the dinner table today, then tune into some electric football led by none other than Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer and Chris Oladokun!

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Omarion Hampton // Getty Images

📈 Stock Up: Omarion Hampton. He finally out-snapped (53.2%) Kimani Vidal in Week 16 while matching him in route participation rate (33.3% each), and that usage should only go up after Vidal suffered a neck strain and could miss time. Hampton has also consistently seen the most high-value work, receiving five of the backfield’s six carries inside the 10-yard line since returning from injury, including all three last week, per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett.

📉 Stock Down: Josh Jacobs. He entered Week 16 banged up, didn’t practice all week, and ultimately played on only 39% of the snaps (a season-low for a game he didn’t leave early). It’s likely the team will continue limiting his touches, as the Packers only need to win one of their next two games to lock in a playoff spot, and they’re very unlikely to earn a home game even if they win out, per The Athletic’s playoff model.

✅ Start R.J. Harvey. Since the Broncos' Week 12 bye, Harvey has averaged 19 fantasy PPG, with 21+ in three of four, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio. He’s scored five TDs in those four games and is fresh off a career day as a receiver. The Chiefs have been a tough matchup for RBs on paper, but this should be a game with a very positive script for Harvey.

❌ Sit Jacory Croskey-Merritt. In the last three games that Chris Rodriguez Jr. has played, Bill has played 14%, 19%, and 20% of snaps, per RotoBaller’s Ryan Kirksey.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave // Getty Images

📈 Stock Up: Chris Olave. He just amassed season-highs in expected fantasy points (28.9), targets (16), air yards (246), and actual fantasy points (39.8). Treat Olave as a mid-range WR1 against the Titans, who are the NFL’s biggest pass funnel by pass rate over expected allowed (+6.3%) and the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs since Week 12 (+5.9), per Scott Barrett.

📉 Stock Down: Emeka Egbuka. He’s now scored single-digit fantasy points in NINE of his last 10 games, and just logged his 5th straight with four or fewer catches (specifically, he had one reception on two targets against Carolina), per Yahoo’s Matt Okada. You’re better off dropping him and hoping your opponent plays him against you.

✅ Stream Deebo Samuel. Don’t bench your stud for him, but Ryan Kirksey makes a good point: “If Josh Johnson starts this game, you are going to see the Commanders get creative with how they manufacture touches for Deebo Samuel Sr. He will get targets and design run plays in this game. Dallas is also terrible against slot WRs this season.”

❌ Sit Jameson Williams. This one’s tough, given his recent hot streak. But if you have other options, use them. The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers and have not allowed a TD to a wideout since Week 9. From Week 10 on, they’ve also allowed the 6th-fewest yards, per Michael Florio.

QB / TE

Captain Kirk // Brett Davis, Imagn Images

📈 Stock Up: Kirk Cousins. Captain Kirk followed up last week’s QB3 finish with another strong outing, checking in as the current QB11 on the week. He could be a QB2 streamer for you this week — his matchup with the Rams may look tough on paper, but their defense has quietly allowed 20+ fantasy points to opposing QBs in four straight contests, per FantasyPros’ Jordan Woodson.

✅ Start Dak Prescott. The Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most fantasy PPG this season, while also giving up the 3rd-most passing TDs in 2025, per Michael Florio. Each of the last three QBs to face them topped 19 fantasy points.

❌ Sit Jared Goff. Minnesota has allowed the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to QBs all season, with just 12.2 per game, per ClutchPoints’ Jaren Kawana. The last time the Lions played the Vikings, Goff finished outside the top 15.

📉 Stock Up: Kyle Pitts. Over the past month, Pitts has scored four TDs and logged 31 catches and 395 yards, per Matt Okada. More importantly, he still put up 15.2 fantasy points on Sunday with Drake London back in the lineup. He’s a must-start in your championship matchup.

❌ Sit Travis Kelce. Chris Oladokun. That is all.

🚑️ Monitor George Kittle’s injury. HC Kyle Shanahan said he has “a chance to play” this week, but it might be wise to add Jake Tonges just in case. Tonges had usability earlier in the year when Kittle was banged up, and the 49ers get a Bears defense that's allowed the 10th-highest adjusted target share to TEs this year, per J.J. Zachariason.

🚑️ Brock Bowers has been put on IR. If this news screwed you over, you could look at picking up his backup, Michael Mayer. But I’d much prefer checking to see if Taysom Hill was still available instead…

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• BONUS: It might be wise to have a backup plan for any Rams you have this week. There’s a possibility they could end up resting some key starters:

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POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life’s Week 17 Early Fantasy Football Rankings, highlighting Drake Maye, Chris Olave and more players.

📖 Read Christmas Day NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel from Zach Thompson of FantasyLabs if you’re interested in making some DFS lineups or laying down some bets during today’s action.

🎙️Listen to The Fantasy Footballers’ Merry Megaladon episode. It’s jam-packed with their starts of the week, injury updates, and a fantasy football breakdown for today’s matchups.

📺 Watch this year’s Christmas edition of Gridiron Heights from Bleacher Report for a good laugh to start your day:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

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Merry Christmas!

See you Sunday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

If you’re reading this, I’m assuming you’ve made it to the championship in at least one of your leagues — congrats!✊

On the other end, you may have lost in another league because TE1-by-a-mile Trey McBride did f*** all, or because you didn’t expect Ashton Jeanty to finally score double-digit points (let alone have a career day) against the best defense in the league.🤷‍♂️ 

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When you suffer a tough loss, just remember what Sean Payton said this week: “You can't spit it out, you have to swallow it.”

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WAIVER WIRE 🧐

Roster %’s courtesy of ESPN. No FAAB suggestions today — chances are you’re picking up just one guy to replace an injured starter, so go all in with whatever budget you have left. We’ve listed the players in our order of preference.

Running Back

Michael Carter // Getty Images

Cardinals RB Michael Carter (39%) didn’t have an excellent showing last week, but he’s still a rare starting RB that’s available in many leagues. He’ll be a solid streaming candidate this week against Cincinnati, who allows the most fantasy points to RBs, including at least 100 scrimmage yards or a TD to six different backs over the last four weeks, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Rams RB Blake Corum (30%) has at least 11 touches in three straight games, averaging 16.6 fantasy PPG during that stretch. With L.A. favored by 8.5 points over the Falcons this week, we could see another double-digit outing from the team’s RB2.

Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez (30%) reclaimed his previous role as the team's primary ball-carrier, finishing with 15 carries, 63 yards, and a TD, while also adding one catch for six yards. You can stream him in a potential shootout vs. the Cowboys, who could be without Quinnen Williams (concussion) again.

Packers RB Emanuel Wilson (36%) had 82 rushing yards on 14 carries Saturday night, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He played 33 snaps to Josh Jacobs' 28, per RotoBaller’s Robert Lorge, and given the latter’s lingering knee injury, he could see a similar role in Week 17.

Titans RB Tyjae Spears (31%) saw nearly half the team’s snaps last week, finishing with 13 carries, 52 yards, and a rushing TD, while also adding five catches for 53 yards. You can always take a chance on him finding the end zone again in what could be a close matchup with the Saints this week.

Texans RB Jawhar Jordan (5%) led the backfield in snaps and touches last week with Woody Marks out. He finished with 53 rushing yards on 15 carries, while adding five catches for 17 yards as well. There’s a chance Marks returns this week, but even then, who’s to say they won’t keep J.J. involved…?

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Browns RBs Dylan Sampson (7%), Raheim Sanders (0%), and Trayveon Williams (0%) could all have a role after Quinshon Judkins broke his leg and dislocated his ankle last week. Sampson has missed the last two games, but has a chance to play this week and is the preferred option out of these three. If he isn’t available, though (or if reports later suggest he won’t play), then grab Sanders, who got the most work after Judkins was hurt, finishing with 11 carries for 42 yards, plus one catch for four yards. I’d only grab Williams if it’s confirmed that Sampson won’t play, as he operated in a Sampson-esque pass-catching role, making four grabs for 38 yards (and three carries for 17 yards).

Wide Receiver

Parker Washington // Corey Perrine, Florida Times-Union

Jags WR Parker Washington (13%) has reached double-digit fantasy points in five of his last seven full games, including 17+ points four times in that span, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. While he remains the 3rd target (at best) in Jacksonville, he’s shown great chemistry with Trevor Lawrence.

Bears WR Luther Burden III (15%) was out last week, but monitor reports in case he returns. If he plays and Rome Odunze remains out, you can definitely start the rookie. Burden paced Chicago’s passing attack in both Weeks 14 and 15, totaling 10 catches for 151 yards on 13 targets for 25 fantasy points, per John Hansen.

Patriots WR Mack Hollins (4%) had seven catches for 69 yards on nine targets on Sunday night against the Ravens. Over his last eight games, he’s averaged 6.4 targets, 4.4 catches and 53.9 receiving yards, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. He’ll offer a decent floor this week in favorable matchup against a slumping Jets pass defense.

Steelers WR Adam Thielen (6%) is a real desperation play, but he did catch all four of his targets for 49 yards against the Lions. He could have a role with DK Metcalf suspended for two weeks…

Twitter tweet

• Broncos WR Troy Franklin (60%) is probably rostered, but we just wanted to shout him out as he’ll be locked in as the team’s WR2 with Pat Bryant (concussion) likely out this week. Over the last two weeks, Franklin’s totalled 151 receiving yards on 10 catches (11 targets) and should produce against the lowly Chiefs, who look like they’ve completely given up.

QB & TE

Tyler Shough // Jane Gershovich, Getty Images

Saints QB Tyler Shough (11%) has finished as a top-16 QB in each of his last four games and will take on a Titans defense that’s top-10 in terms of most points allowed to the position, per Justin Boone. Prior to taking advantage of a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs offense this week, Tennessee had given up four straight QB1 fantasy results, including three inside the top-5.

Packers QB Malik Willis (0%) completed nine of 11 passes for 121 yards and a TD, adding 10 carries for 44 yards rushing (13.2 total fantasy points) in relief of the injured Jordan Love (concussion).The Packers play on Saturday once again, and it’s unlikely that Love clears the concussion protocol in time. If that’s the case, you can stream Willis, who averaged 162.0 passing yards per game and 57.0 rushing yards per game with two passing TDs and one rushing TD for 19.2 fantasy PPG in a pair of starts early last season, per John Hansen.

Commanders QB Marcus Mariota (16%) left last week’s game with a hand injury, but there’s a chance he returns this week to face the Cowboys. If so, you can stream him as a QB2, since Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points (by far) to the position, per ESPN’s Eric Karabell.

Saints TE/QB Taysom Hill (1%) ran 12 times for 42 yards, caught four passes for 36 yards and also threw a 38-yard TD to Chris Olave in the team’s lopsided win. While Audric Estimé led the RBs with a 58% snap share, per Justin Boone, it was Hill who was the key to the team’s game plan versus the Jets.

Jags TE Brenton Strange (27%): “Since he returned in Week 12 from injury, Strange has scored 11.5 half-PPR points or more in three out of five games. This past weekend, he tied a season-high with seven targets and found the end zone, finishing with 12.4 half-PPR points. Strange has a positive matchup in Week 17 against the Colts, who have struggled to defend opposing TEs.” — Robert Lorge

Bears TE Colston Loveland (45%) was disappointing in the wind last week, but he’s still caught at least three passes in 10 straight games dating back to mid-October, per Pat Fitzmaurice. He should produce in a potential shootout with the Niners this week, especially if Rome Odunze and/or Luther Burden III remain out.

Seahawks TE A.J. Barner (16%) has a 19% target share on a 75% route rate over his last six games. He’s averaged 8.8 PPR points, which technically makes him the TE12 over that stretch, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Bengals TE Mike Gesicki (3%) is a solid streaming candidate against the Cardinals, who had allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs before Kyle Pitts dropped 18.7 on them in Week 15, per Yahoo’s Cory Bonini.

D/ST

Patriots D // NESN

The New England Patriots (72%) may have been dropped given their recent matchups against Buffalo and Baltimore. But this week they’ll take on the Jets and QB Brady Cook, who has thrown six INTs over the past three games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32%) haven’t been great, but they’ll take on the Dolphins and QB Quinn Ewers, who threw two INTs and finished with a 66 passer rating.

The New York Giants (9%) will take on the Raiders, who allow the most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season, per the staff at Yahoo.

DEEP DIVES 🤿

With the 2025 fantasy season coming to an end, we’re looking ahead to next year to help dynasty managers stay a step ahead of the competition. Roster %s are courtesy of Sleeper (dynasty format).

Dynasty Stashes for 2026

Sean Tucker // Getty Images

Bucs RB Sean Tucker (75%) was probably added this year, but may be dropped this offseason. He’s soon to be a restricted free agent, and teammate Rachaad White also has an expiring contract. So there are essentially two paths for Tucker — Path #1: He sticks around Tampa Bay as the RB2 while White finds a new home. Path #2: He goes to a team in need of an explosive back. Both options make him worth stashing once his value presumably deflates over the next couple of weeks (h/t Fantasy Life’s Jake Trowbridge).

Texans WR Jaylin Noel (81%) is probably on a roster, too, but keep an eye out if he’s dropped before your rookie draft. He didn’t breakout like we’d hoped when Christian Kirk missed time this year, but the rookie could take over the slot receiver spot next season. If so, he offers major athletic upside:

Twitter tweet

Seahawks WR Tory Horton (83%) saw his stock rise early, only to fall after the team acquired Rashid Shaheed. But a rookie gobbling up five TDs in the span of seven games is nothing to sneeze at. Up until his injury in Week 9, Horton was entrusted with 50% of the Seahawks’ end zone targets, per Trowbridge, and turned them into fantasy gold.

Titans TE Gunnar Helm (63%) emerged as a quality option in Tennessee’s passing game, playing roughly two-thirds of the team’s snaps following their Week 10 bye. If Cam Ward takes a step in the right direction next year, Helm’s stock could rise.

Commanders TE Ben Sinnott (59%) is the most likely successor to Zach Ertz. He was a highly regarded prospect coming out of the draft in 2024, as he led all TEs in the three-cone, vertical and broad jump at the Combine.

Rams WR Konata Mumpfield (17%) filled in for Davante Adams last week and saw a season-high in targets (8), receptions (3), and receiving yards (40). Mumpfield has played at least 38% of the snaps in each of his last five games, per Dynasty Nerds’ Mychal Warno, and could emerge as the WR3 in L.A. next year, with the potential to take over the WR2 role once Adams hangs ‘em up.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Top 5 Fantasy Football Takeaways: Surprises & Disappointments from FantasyPros’ Josh Shepardson for insight on Week 16’s most eye-opening performances.

📖 Read Week 16 Booms and Busts from Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski for insight on topics like Josh Allen’s dud of a performance, Trevor Lawrence’s continued breakout, and more.

📖 Read Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Week 17 Utilization Report, a staple piece in our research each and every week. Among McFarland’s top takeaways are the recent surges from Chris Olave, Omarion Hampton, and Aaron Jones.

🎙️Listen to Week 16 Recap from CBS Sports’ Fantasy Football Today, where the guys recap every game, talk winner and losers, and discuss the latest news from around the NFL.

📺 Watch Fantasy Football Week 16 Reactions — It's Crunch Time from Underdog Fantasy, where Hayden Winks, Brentley Weissman and Sam Sherman discuss Week 16 and what the hell is going on in the National Football League:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

What a wiiiiiild ending.

See you Christmas morning.🎅 

- Marcus

Good morning.

And congratulations to those of you with Puka Nacua on your team.

Source: @SleeperHQ

While you can get your last-minute Christmas shopping done today, the rest of us have some work to do. So let’s dive into the starts, sits, and sleepers that’ll get you to the big game.🏆️ 

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Jared Goff // Junfu Han, USA Today

✅ Start ‘Em

Jared Goff vs. PIT: “Coming off a 338-yard, three-TD performance against the Rams, Goff now heads home to face the Steelers defense that’s allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs. This game is expected to be the highest scoring on the slate at 52 projected points.” — Yahoo’s Justin Boone

Brock Purdy @ IND: The Colts have allowed 286 passing yards per game over their last four, per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith, and will struggle to sustain drives with Philip Rivers under center. Purdy, meanwhile, is coming off a season-best 295 passing yards with 3 TDs and has now accounted for multiple TDs in five of his six starts.

C.J. Stroud vs. LV: “Over the last eight games, Stroud has finished inside the top-15 five times, and now he gets one of the better matchups in the league against the Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders rank 22nd in pass DVOA and have looked absolutely out of place in the NFL as of late.” — FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski

❌ Sit ‘Em

Dak Prescott vs. LAC: “Prescott has been a top-5 fantasy QB this season, but he's coming off his 3rd-worst fantasy outing of the season and draws a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season.” — Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport

Jaxson Dart vs. MIN: Minnesota has allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards and 3rd-fewest passing TDs this season. They’ve been even tougher lately, too, yielding the 4th-fewest yards and just one TD pass since Week 10, while allowing the 3rd-lowest passer rating and completion % in that span, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Trevor Lawrence @ DEN: He’s reached a new level since his Week 8 bye. However, in that span, he's scored 15 points or fewer in two games. Those came against the Texans and Chargers, by far the toughest matchups he's faced during this stretch. This week, he draws Denver, which has allowed the 3rd-fewest TDs and 7th-fewest fantasy PPG to QBs, per Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Bryce Young vs. TB: Since Week 8, no team has given up more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

Tyler Shough vs. NYJ: He’s been fantasy relevant over the past couple of weeks, largely due to his legs — 15 carries for 87 yards and two TDs over his past two games. Now he’ll take on a Jets defense that has allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to QBs, per Gary Davenport.

Running Back

Bucky Irving // Bob Donnan, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Bucky Irving @ CAR: Since Week 8, Carolina ranks bottom-5 in rushing yards per game and yards per carry allowed to RBs. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving has had at least 17 touches in every game he’s played this season, and seven of the nine RBs who have seen at least 15 touches against the Panthers this year have scored at least 16 fantasy points, per Matthew Berry.

Woody Marks vs. LV: “The Raiders‘ defense has not been able to stop opposing RBs over the last month, allowing R.J. Harvey (22), Kimani Vidal (20.7), Saquon Barkley (17.2), Quinshon Judkins (16.7) and Dylan Sampson (16.2) to each hit at least 16 points against them over the last four weeks.” — PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk

Michael Carter vs. ATL: He has a decent matchup against a Falcons defense that’s allowing the 15th-most fantasy points to the RB position and rank 24th in run DVOA, per Tyler Orginski. But the best part of all is he’s the unquestioned workhorse in Arizona, out-carrying Emari Demercado 14-to-1 last week.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Quinshon Judkins vs. BUF: This looks like a good matchup on paper, given Buffalo’s struggles against the run, but as a Browns fan I can tell you: don’t fall for it. Judkins has averaged under 2.0 yards per carry in each of his last two games against the weak run defenses of Tennessee and Chicago. The main reason for this has been Cleveland’s banged up o-line — center Ethan Pocic is out for the season, tackle Jack Conklin has a concussion, and guards Wyatt Teller and Zak Zinter are questionable.

Jaylen Warren @ DET: “Pittsburgh is a 6.5-point underdog against a defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to RBs. A pass-leaning game script would favor Kenneth Gainwell, whose 21% target share since Week 11 ranks 2nd on the team and ties Ashton Jeanty for 2nd among all RBs.” — Jody Smith

Ashton Jeanty @ HOU: He’s had three straight single-digit fantasy outings and is averaging just 1.3 yards before contact per attempt. That's not going to get better against a Texans defense giving up less than 93 yards per game on the ground, per Gary Davenport.

😴 Sleepers

Kenneth Gainwell @ DET: Since Week 11, Gainwell is the 8th-best RB in fantasy football. He’s averaging 18 fantasy PPG and has scored at least 16 points in four of five games in that stretch. Look for him to produce through the passing game in this potential shootout (52.5 O/U), as his 16% target share this season ranks 5th among all RBs, per Matthew Berry.

Aaron Jones @ NYG: He hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 11, but he'll have a great opportunity to get there this week, as the Giants have surrendered the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Kristopher Knox.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf // Barry Reeger, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

DK Metcalf @ DET: He’s put together back-to-back strong fantasy performances with seven catches for 148 yards in Week 14 and 55 yards and a TD in Week 15. Look for him to stay hot in a potential shotoout against the Lions, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Justin Boone.

Jauan Jennings @ IND: He’s scored six TDs in his last six outings and is coming off a WR11 finish. Now he gets a Colts defense that’s allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs, including a top-12 weekly finisher at the position in four of the previous five games, per Boone.

Michael Wilson vs. ATL: No defense has allowed more fantasy PPG to the WR position than the Atlanta Falcons since Week 8. In that span, 10 different WRs have put up 16+ fantasy points against them, including Tetairoa McMillan, JSN, Adonai Mitchell, Jaylen Waddle and DeMario Douglas, who all hit at least 20 points against them, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Emeka Egbuka @ CAR: He’s been held under 50 yards in four of his last five games and has not scored since Week 10. Meanwhile, Carolina allows the 10th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to WRs, per Jody Smith.

Brian Thomas Jr. @ DEN: He’s tallied double-digit fantasy points in consecutive games for the first time since Week 6, but the Broncos might have the best defense in the entire league right now. They’ve surrendered the 7th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Kristopher Knox, and should put the clamps on BTJ today.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. MIN: The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers this season, and the last time a wideout scored a TD against them was all the way back in Week 9, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell @ NO: The Saints deploy Cover 3 at a top-3 rate (40.9%), and Mitchell averages +32% more yards per route run against such coverage this year. Plus, his career 2.93 YPRR average against this shell ranks 11th-best among all WRs over the past two seasons. The Saints also rank top-4 in single-high usage (58.9%), and Mitchell’s 0.31 targets per route run against single-high ranks 5th-best among all WRs, behind only Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, and A.J. Brown, per Ryan Heath.

Ladd McConkey @ DAL: He’s been a major disappointment this year, but you can throw him in the FLEX against a Cowboys secondary that’s allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing WRs over the full season (+9.6) and the 2nd-most to the slot over the past five weeks (+4.6), per Heath.

Tight End

Travis Kelce // AP Photo

✅ Start ‘Em

Travis Kelce @ TEN: The Titans have allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing TEs over the past five games (+4.6), the 5th-most yards per target over expectation to slot and inline receivers over the full year (+1.1), and the most fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s (19.7), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. With Rashee Rice out this week, all of those positions will apply to Travis Kelce. Minshew’s no Mahomes, but he’s good enough to get his top target the ball.

Harold Fannin Jr. vs. BUF: David Njoku has been ruled out once again. The veteran TE has missed two games this year and left a third after just six snaps. In those contests, Fannin had target shares of 27, 29, and 47%, while averaging 15 PPR points, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Dalton Schultz vs. LV: Since Week 7, Schultz has been the TE9 in fantasy PPG with six TE1 weekly finishes. Meanwhile, the Raiders have ranked 19th in yards per target and 17th in fantasy PPG allowed to TEs since Week 11, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jake Ferguson vs. LAC: He’s averaging just 7.1 fantasy PPG with a dismal 14% target share since CeeDee Lamb returned to the lineup in Week 7, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Brock Bowers @ HOU: Trey McBride was the first TE to have 50+ receiving yards and a TD against Houston in a game this season when he did so last week, per Michelle Magdziuk. While Bowers is every bit as talented as McBride, his offense is unfortunately light years behind Arizona’s.

Mark Andrews vs. NE: Andrews has only four TE1 weekly finishes this season and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only once this season. And since Week 9, New England has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the 7th-fewest yards per target to TEs, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange @ DEN: The Broncos have quietly allowed the 3rd-most fantasy PPG to TEs over the last five weeks. Denver also plays a ton of man coverage (38% — 4th-most), which bodes well for Strange, as he ranks TE6 in yards per route run (2.07) vs. man, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Darren Waller vs. CIN: This is your obligatory “start whatever TE is playing the Bengals” nomination, as Cincinnati is allowing the most receptions (7.1) and yards (91.1) per game to TEs this season, per Barfield.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 23-21-1

Jacoby Brissett // Brooke Sutton, Getty Images

🥇 Jacoby Brissett OVER 242.5 passing yards (-111)

• We didn’t mention him as a start because it should go without saying that he should be locked into your lineup by now. Especially this week, as Atlanta has allowed 243+ passing yards in six of their last seven games, while Arizona leads the league in pass rate over expectation (8.3%), per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 De’Von Achane OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-115)

• The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to RBs (45.6), while Achane has at least 39 receiving yards in four of his last six games and is averaging 32.1 receiving yards per game this season overall, per FantasyPros’ Dan Servodidio. Look for Quinn Ewers to check it down often in his 1st career start.

🥉 49ers @ Colts UNDER 46.5 total points (-118)

• With Ol’ Man Rivers returning from retirement last week, Indy ran the ball on 19 of their 23 first-and-10s. Rivers averaged just 4.7 air yards per attempt and only 2.5 seconds in time to throw, and the Colts' longest pass was 17 yards, per ESPN’s Ben Solak.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read The Primer: Week 16 Edition from FantasyPros’ Derek Brown, where he dives into every single matchup, offering rankings, starts/sits, and more insights to help you reach the finals.

📖 Read The No-Fly List: The Gut Check No. 671 from Footballguys’ Matt Waldman ($), where he shares his list of players heading into 2026 that he doesn't want on his re-draft or dynasty squads.

🎙️Listen to Late Round Perspectives: Sigmund Bloom Returns from J.J. Zachariason, where the two fantasy football living legends chat about their biggest surprise of the fantasy season, the 2025 rookie class as a whole, what they’ve learned this year, and much more.

📺 Watch Playoff Lockdown: Week 16 Must‑Starts from ESPN’s Fantasy Focus, where the guys recap TNF, preview this week’s matchups, and share their starts of the week:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the championship.

- Marcus

Good morning.

It’s the holiday season, which means you’re at some kind of function every night, you’re drinking on a random Tuesday, and NFL football is suddenly played on Saturdays, too.

With your calendar full and the days seemingly blending together, it’s hard to keep track of what’s going on around the league. Luckily our weekly trends newsletter is here to fill you in on players trending up and down around the league, along with some starts and sits for tonight and Saturday.

Let’s get after it…

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Kenneth Gainwell // Getty Images

📈 Stock Up: Kenneth Gainwell. Since Week 10, Kenny G has out-snapped Jaylen Warren in all but one game, per Fantasy Points’ Chris Wecht. He’s averaging 18 fantasy PPG down that stretch and is quickly becoming a favorite of Aaron Rodgers’, who shouted him out in his press conference this week.

🚑️ Monitor the Texans RB situation. Nick Chubb returned to practice yesterday, but Woody Marks sat out. Jawhar Jordan may be an intriguing streaming candidate this week:

Twitter tweet

📉 Stock Down: De’Von Achane. Given his current average of 20.8 fantasy PPG and soft schedule, Achane was on track to be a league winner. Unfortunately, though, QB Tua Tagovailoa has been benched…

In games without Tua last year, Achane averaged just 8.6 fantasy PPG (compared to 22.5 PPG with him), per Own The League. Luckily the Dolphins play the Bengals this week, so he might still reach RB1 status, but this move certainly hurts his ceiling.

📈 Stock Up: Michael Carter. He’s the guy in Arizona. Carter handled 70% of all designed carries and ran 63% of the routes last week, including 100% of the carries inside the 10, per Fantasy Points Data.

📉 Stock Down: Quinshon Judkins. The Browns RB hasn't hit 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 5, and since Week 8, he's had just two runs of over 15 yards. Cleveland’s offensive line is a disaster, ranking dead-last in adjusted yards before contact per attempt generated (1.17), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

🚀 Travis Etienne = League Winner?! Bhaysul Tuten injured his finger in the 3rd quarter of the Jags game in Week 15 and will be out for a few weeks. After he left the game, ETN played 92% of the snaps and handled 80% of the designed carries for the rest of the quarter, with LeQuint Allen only mixing in later in the 4th with the team up big, per Chris Wecht. ETN has a tough matchup this week against Denver, but the former 1st round pick should more than make up for that with this expected bellcow usage.

❌ Sit Ken Walker. You may be tempted to throw him in your lineup tonight since he had 20.1 fantasy points the last time he faced the Rams back in Week 11, but most experts are willing to bet that was just a fluke. L.A. has allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs, including just five TDs. They've also given up explosive runs at the 4th-lowest rate this season and 2nd-lowest since Week 11, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Wide Receiver

Jamo // Getty Images

📈 Stock Up: Jameson Williams. Check out Jamo’s games since Dan Campbell took over play calling:

• 6 rec, 119 yds, 1 TD

• 4 rec, 88 yds, 1 TD

• 0 rec, 0 yds (obviously the week we said he was a must-start…)

• 7 rec, 144 yds, 1 TD

• 7 rec, 96 yds

• 7 rec, 134 yds, 1 TD

Don’t expect this run to stop any time soon, since the Lions’ matchup with the Steelers has the week’s highest over/under at 52.5 points.👀 

📉 Stock Down: Justin Jefferson. The fall continues. He’s now posted fewer than nine fantasy points in six straight games, and has totalled 6.7 points over the last three weeks combined, per Yahoo’s Matt Okada. He brought in just two of eight targets for 22 yards on Sunday night against the Cowboys, the softest matchup for WRs, while both Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor had better games.

Twitter tweet

📈 Mike Evans is BACK. In his first game since Week 7 (and really since he was fully healthy in Week 3), Evans put up season-highs in receptions (6), yards (132), and targets (12) on just a 55% snap share, per RotoBaller’s Adam Koffler. For the season, albeit a small sample size, Evans is 3rd in targets per route run (0.32) behind only Puka Nacua and Smith-Njigba, arguably the two best WRs in football.👀 

✅ Start Jayden Reed. His usage has gone up since his return from injury in Week 14, tying for the team lead in targets (six) last week. With Christian Watson’s status uncertain for Saturday, feel free to slide Reed into your lineup against a Bears secondary allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

❌ Sit Deebo Samuel. The Eagles have allowed the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs while giving up just two TDs to the position in their past eight games, per Eisenberg.

QB / TE

Brock Purdy // Getty Images

📈 Stock Up: Brock Purdy. Fresh off his bye week, Big 🍆 Brock finished as the QB4 last week, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs against Tennessee. Look for him to stay hot moving forward with soft matchups against Indy and Chicago. His opponent this week, the Colts, allow the 3rd-most pass yards per game to opposing QBs, per Joe Orrico.

✅ Start Jordan Love. He’ll take on the Bears this Saturday, who have allowed the 5th-most TD passes in the NFL. Chicago has also played man at a higher-than-average rate all year, and Love leads the NFL (by far) in EPA against man. The Bears also have blitzed at the 7th-highest rate since Week 10 (2nd-highest in Weeks 10-14), and the Packers QB leads the NFL in EPA when blitzed, per Michael Florio.

❌ Sit Sam Darnold. He’s scored more than 11.3 fantasy points just twice in his past six outings, and he likely won’t turn a corner tonight. Darnold faced the Rams in Week 11 and shit the bed with four INTs, scoring just 4.3 fantasy points. He also faced the L.A. in the playoffs in 2024 with the Vikings and scored just 13.7 fantasy points. Look elsewhere for a QB2/streaming option.

🚀 Trey McBride is INSANE:

Twitter tweet

📈 Stock Up: Darren Waller. We shouted out Waller as a streaming candidate down the stretch earlier in the year, only to be disappointed in Week 14, and then reinvigorated last week when he scored two TDs. We’ll see how the switch to Ewers goes, but you can stream the Wallerus this week against Cincinnati — the worst defense vs TEs of all time. The Bengals are allowing 19.2 fantasy PPG to opposing TEs, per Joe Orrico, while the next closest is at 14.2 PPG!

📉 Stock Down: Dalton Kincaid. He hasn't played over one-third of the team’s snaps since Week 5. He’s relied heavily on efficiency and TDs, but fellow TE Dawson Knox is pacing Kincaid in both routes (30 vs. 29) and first downs (7 vs. 4) the past two weeks, per Adam Koffler. He’ll be hard to trust with your season on the line.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read The Top 10: 2025 Lessons Learned from Footballguys’ Matt Waldman. The lessons he mentions includes insight on why Quinshon Judkins didn’t become a fantasy RB1, the risks of wish-casting, and more.

📖 Read Denny Carter of NBC Sports’ Regression Files for some names that ought to trend more towards the mean, whether positively or negatively.

🎙️Listen to Week 16 Tough Calls, LAR-SEA Preview, Fantasy Cops! from CBS Sports’ Fantasy Football Today podcast, where the guys talk through some of this week’s trickiest start/sit decisions, like Omarion Hampton, Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan and more.

📺 Watch comedian Frank Caliendo’s hilarious NFL impressions on the Rich Eisen Show😂:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Enjoy the game tonight and the two on Saturday. Let’s get off to a hot start this week.✊ 

See you Sunday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons tore their ACLs, Jayden Daniels is officially out for the year, Davante Adams and Devin Neal hurt their hammies, Rome Odunze re-aggravated his foot injury, Christian Watson is hurt (again)…

But other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

Hopefully you were on the bright side of Week 15, benefiting from 40-burgers out of randoms like Trevor Lawrence and Kyle Pitts. It was definitely a wild start to the fantasy playoffs, and it continues this week with some intriguing waiver wire candidates to help you get to the finals.

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WAIVER WIRE 🧐

Roster %’s courtesy of ESPN. Bid amounts are generalized suggestions—always take into account your budget total, roster makeup, and typical leaguemate behavior.

Note: With the fantasy postseason here, you may also notice bid amounts are higher. There’s no sense taking that FAAB with you to the grave…

Running Back

Michael Carter // Yahoo

Cardinals RB Michael Carter (9%) was the clear RB1 for the Cardinals after Bam Knight was carted off with an ankle injury, logging 18 touches for 94 yards. Knight’s status for the next two weeks is in serious jeopardy, so Carter could be a solid streamer against the Falcons (14th-most fantasy PPG allowed to RBs) this week and the Bengals (1st!!!) in the fantasy championship. Bid 75%.

Rams RB Blake Corum (30%) has now rushed for 70+ yards and at least one TD in three straight games (17.8 fantasy PPG), despite still being the backup to Kyren Williams. He would be #1 if it wasn’t for his tough matchup against the Seahawks, who have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing RBs. Bid 75%.

Saints RB Audric Estime (0%) split time with Evan Hull after Devin Neal left with a hamstring injury. Estime was the more productive back on the day, though, turning six touches into 50 scrimmage yards. He’ll be the most likely FLEX play out of this backfield in Week 16 against a Jets defense that’s given up 13 TDs to RBs in their last five games, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. Bid 40%.

Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (48%) was given 18 carries with Chris Rodriguez out and was effective with them, finishing with 96 yards and a TD. Don’t go overboard here, though, as C-Rod was able to log a couple limited practices last week, so it’s possible he returns to the lineup. Bid 25%.

• Other clear handcuffs that might still be available to stash (in order): Brian Robinson Jr. (25%), Tank Bigsby (18%), Tyler Allgeier (33%), Emanuel Wilson (37%), Keaton Mitchell (2%), Ray Davis (5%), and Tyjae Spears (32%). Bid 25+%.

Wide Receiver

LBIII // Stephen R. Sylvanie // Imagn Images

Bears WR Luther Burden III (15%) led the team in target share for the 2nd consecutive week (25.0%). In two games without Rome Odunze, he now averages 75.5 receiving yards per game (~WR8), per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Just be sure to monitor his ankle injury throughout the week. Bid 75%.

Jets WR Adonai Mitchell (30%) has a 27% target share and 50% of the team’s air yards since making his New York debut in Week 11, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. He’s the clear WR1 for Gang Green and has 45 PPR points over the past three weeks, highlighted by a pair of top-15 weekly finishes. Bid 75%.

Panthers WR Jalen Coker (4%) is first on the team in target share (20.9%) over the last three games, catching 11 out of 14 targets for 166 yards and two TDs, per FantasyPros’ Richard Janvrin. Bid 35%.

Giants WR Darius Slayton (22%) didn’t have a fantasy-relevant performance last week, but he did have a team-high 10 targets. More importantly, Slayton has averaged six targets and 11.9 fantasy PPG in his past four contests with Jaxson Dart under center, per FantasyPros’ Mike Fanelli. Bid 25%.

• Check if Packers WR Jayden Reed (46%) is still available. He should see more work with Christian Watson out. Bid 80+%.

QB & TE

“Nine”

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy (31%) has now produced six total TDs across his last two games (five passing, one rushing), while finishing as a top-10 fantasy QB on both occasions. “Nine” will have another soft opponent to attack in Week 16, as the Giants defense is one of the five easiest matchups for fantasy QBs on the year, per Justin Boone. Bid 50%.

Saints QB Tyler Shough (7%) has been surprisingly solid as of late, finishing as a top-15 fantasy QB in four of the past five weeks. You can stream him again this week against the lowly Jets. Bid 50%.

Panthers QB Bryce Young (12%) has been super inconsistent, but he’s a decent QB2 streaming option this week his week against the Bucs, who have allowed 20.4 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Javier Manzanera. Bid 25%.

• I’m assuming Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett (44%) and Jags QB Trevor Lawrence (47%), and Texans QB C.J. Stroud (52%) are on rosters. But if not, grab them ahead of anyone else on this list. Bid 80+%.

• I wouldn’t start him this week against Philly, but you can stash Commanders QB Marcus Mariota (19%) in case you make the championship. In Week 17, he’ll take on the Cowboys, who have allowed the most fantasy PPG by far to opposing QBs. Bid 25%.

Rams TE Colby Parkinson (11%) is the 4th-highest scoring fantasy TE on a per game basis since Week 10, per Justin Boone, thanks in large part to six TDs in his last six outings. His red zone usage should continue following the loss of Davante Adams. Bid 75%.

Bears TE Colston Loveland (40%) has seen at least five targets in each game since Week 12, and has averaged 10.9 fantasy PPG during this stretch, per RotoBaller’s Robert Lorge. Bid 25%.

Dolphins TE Darren Waller (19%) has been splitting a lot with Greg Dulcich and Julian Hill, but if you’re desperate, you can stream him this week against the Bengals. Cincy has allowed over 20 fantasy PPG to the position, almost double what the 2nd-worst team allows, per Javier Manzanera. Bid 25%.

D/ST

Kansas City Chiefs // Kathryn Riley, Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs (30%) will take on the Titans, who have given up the 4th-most sacks (49) in the NFL this season and currently rank 31st in points scored per game, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze. Bid 50%.

The Buffalo Bills (44%) should feast against the Browns and QB Shedeur Sanders, who came crashing back to earth last week, taking five sacks and tossing three picks. Bid 50%.

The New Orleans Saints (10%) will host the Jets, who have allowed a top-5 fantasy defense in each of the last two weeks, per NFL.com’s Dan Parr. If Brady Cook remains at QB, the Saints are a smash start. Even with Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields under center, though, you can still stream them. Bid 25%.

DEEP DIVES 🤿

Stash these players for cheap (5-50%) before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Michael Carter.

Next Man Up

Jawhar Jordan // Brett Coomer, Houston Chronicle

Texans RB Jawhar Jordan (0%) racked up 118 scrimmage yards on 17 touches in the win over the Cardinals this week with Nick Chubb ruled out and Woody Marks leaving early with an ankle injury. If Marks and/or Chubb can’t go this week, Jordan would be the next man up against a Raiders defense allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs.

Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin (1%) is in a similar boat, as R.J. Harvey reportedly hurt his ribs in last week’s win. It isn’t yet known how serious the injury is, but you can stash McLaughlin in deeper leagues just in case.

Falcons WR David Sills V (0%) has run a route on 96% of the team’s dropbacks over the past two weeks and his target share hit 24% in Week 15, while he finished with six catches for 78 yards, both of which were season-highs, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Saints RB Evan Hull (0%) split with Audric Estime (as I mentioned earlier) and will continue to see more work if Devin Neal is out. He wasn’t overly impressive, turning his four carries into 12 yards, but he has a great matchup against the Jets, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs.

Patriots WR Mack Hollins (3%) led the team in target share at 36.4% last week, catching four of his eight targets for 41 yards. Over the last three games, he’s 2nd in target share (21.2%), per Richard Janvrin.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Can Week 15’s surprise stars keep scoring in fantasy football playoffs? Here’s the verdict. from The Athletic’s KC Joyner, where he dissects the out-of-nowhere performances from last week and determines whether they were flukes or signs of more to come.

📖 Read Week 15 Winners and Losers from ESPN’s Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft, where they look at risers and fallers from last week’s action, along with the fantasy football fallout from key injuries around the league.

🎙️Listen to Fantasy Football Takeaways: Fact or Fiction + Week 16 Waiver Wire & Trade Advice from FantasyPros’ live show, Out of Bounds, where Joe Pisapia, Chris Welsh, and Scott Bogman discuss everything happening in the football world, both in fantasy and in reality, while having some fun along the way.

📺 Watch Week 15 Fantasy playoffs TRUST METER: Is Kyle Pitts a LEAGUE WINNER? + WAIVER WIRE adds for Week 16 from Yahoo’s Justin Boone and Scott Pianowski:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Before we go, we wanted to send our thoughts and prayers to Chiefs fans. Their team won’t be making the playoffs for the first time since 2014, when the world was doing ALS Ice Bucket Challenges, talking shit on Yik Yak, and listening to “Happy” by Pharrell Williams.

Welcome to the real world, ya spoiled brats.

See you Thursday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

The playoffs are here which means it’s time to sweat out every throw, every run, and every snap… unless of course you already started Kyle Pitts. Congrats on your 1st round bye.

Previously public enemy #2 (behind only Arthur Smith), Pitts had the best fantasy football game in half PPR scoring for a TE since at least the year 2000, per Yahoo’s Matt Harmon. That’s more than household names like Shannon Sharpe, Gronk, Antonio Gates, and even Blake Jarwin.🤯 

For those of us peasants who don’t have Pitts, let’s take a look at some of the top starts and sits from industry experts…

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Lookin’ Purdy // Thearon W. Henderson, Getty Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy vs. TEN: The Titans allow the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. In their last two games alone, Tennessee has let Shedeur Sanders and Trevor Lawrence finish as top-5 fantasy QBs, so Purdy offers similar upside this week.

Jaxson Dart vs. WAS: The Commies have allowed the 4th-most points to opposing QBs this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk. Since Week 7, Washington has allowed 20+ fantasy points to J.J. McCarthy, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, and after today, you’ll be able to add Dart to that list, too.

Trevor Lawrence vs. NYJ: Since Week 9, Lawrence has been the QB9 in fantasy PPG, finishing as a QB1 in weekly scoring in four of his last six games. He should continue his hot streak against the Jets, who have allowed the 9th-highest success rate per dropback, the 9th-highest EPA per dropback, and the 12th-highest passer rating in the league since Week 10, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Justin Herbert @ KC: He’s been brutal over the last month, finishing as the QB16, QB31, QB20, and QB17. Meanwhile, KC allows the 7th-fewest passing fantasy PPG (12.3), per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Caleb Williams vs. CLE: “Kalib” has fewer than 15 fantasy points in three of his last four games and five of his past eight. This low floor is due to the fact that he ranks 33rd in completion % and 23rd in passer rating among qualified QBs. On top of that, he's facing the Browns, who have the 2nd-highest sack rate in the NFL and have allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards since Week 10, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Philip Rivers @ SEA: The 44-year-old will officially start for Indy, but he shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups just yet. Not only is he fresh out of retirement, but the Seahawks have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, per CBS Sports.

Twitter tweet

😴 Sleepers

C.J. Stroud vs. ARI: The Cardinals have generated the NFL’s 4th-lowest pressure rate (33.3%), and Stroud averages 27.3 fantasy PPG in the two games he’s been pressured on fewer than 34% of his dropbacks. Even when raising that threshold to 40%, Stroud still averages 21.3 fantasy PPG in a four game sample, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Arizona has only hit a 40% pressure rate in two of their 13 games, so bet on Stroud having the time to hit some downfield shots today.

Marcus Mariota @ NYG: The Giants allow the 2nd-most fantasy PPG and the 3rd-most rushing yards to opposing QBs, per Yahoo’s James Koh. Plus, five of the last eight QBs have scored 20+ points against New York, with all eight having scored at least 15 fantasy points.

Running Back

ETN // NFL.com

✅ Start ‘Em

Travis Etienne vs. NYJ: Since the Jags’ Week 8 bye, ETN has scored the 7th-most fantasy PPG among RBs. He’s also found the end zone at an impressive pace, with six TDs over his last five outings. You can expect him to add to that total against a Jets defense that’s given up 10 TDs to seven different RBs over just the last four weeks, per Justin Boone.

Quinshon Judkins @ CHI: Both teams are expected to lean on the ground game in this one, with an expected -20 degree windchill hitting Chicago. Plus, both Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson are OUT for this game, leaving Q as the lone dawg in Cleveland’s backfield. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season — the 3rd-highest average among defenses — and own the 9th-worst PFF run-defense grade, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

TreVeyon Henderson vs. BUF: The Bills’ run-funnel defense is allowing the 7th-most yards per carry and the 10th most explosive rush yards since Week 5, per Fantasy Points Data. They’re also allowing the 7th-most yards per carry against gap runs (which NE runs at a top-6 rate), and the 4th-most yards per carry against inside runs (which NE runs at a top-12 rate), per Dataroma.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Breece Hall @ JAX: He’s hard to bench, but temper expectations against the Jags, who have allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs this season. Early in the season, they did struggle against pass-catching backs, but they’ve allowed just 21 receiving yards per game to RBs over their last five, per Michael Florio. It’s hard to have confidence in Hall given this stiff matchup and 3rd-stringer Brady Cook starting at QB for the Jets.

David Montgomery @ LAR: Monty scored in each of his past two games, but he had 10 total touches or less in each outing. And prior to Week 13, he went three games in a row without a TD while averaging 7.2 PPR points. That TD-or-bust situation Montgomery finds himself in doesn’t bode well against the Rams, who have allowed the fewest rushing TDs to RBs this season (two), per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

Bam Knight @ HOU: Trey Benson wasn’t activated and will now remain on IR for the rest of the season, leaving Knight as the leader of Arizona’s committee. While that helps his rest-of-season fantasy outlook, it would still be best to avoid him today. Since Week 10, Houston has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest yards after contact per attempt, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal vs. CAR: Alvin Kamara remains OUT, so Neal will lead the Saints’ backfield against a Carolina defense that has allowed the 6th-most PPR points to RBs since Week 7, with nine backs having finished with 14+ points against them this year, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Chris Rodriguez @ NYG: The G-Men are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs and rank 2nd-to-last in rush yards allowed, per James Koh. While C-Rod wouldn’t be considered a bellcow, he should have an efficient day thanks to New York’s 5.61 yards per carry allowed (worst in the league).

UPDATE: Despite logging back-to-back limited practice session, Rodriguez has been ruled OUT. Jacoby Croskey-Merritt is most likely to fill his role.

Wide Receiver

Scary Terry // Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Terry McLaurin @ NYG: Since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, Scary Terry has racked up 10 catches, 137 yards and a TD on 20 targets. He should add to that total against a Giants defense that’s the 4th-easiest matchup for fantasy WRs, per Justin Boone.

Jauan Jennings vs. TEN: Jennings has yet to total 75 receiving yards in a game this season, but he has found the end zone in four of his past five games. Look for him to reach new heights this week against a Titans D that’s given up the 8th-most PPR points to WRs this season, per Gary Davenport.

Wan’Dale Robinson vs. WAS: Robinson has earned an elite 8.5 targets per game, while posting career-high marks in receptions (5.6) and receiving yards (63.7) per game, with a career-best 11.3 yards per reception. Plus, Washington leads the league in yards after the catch per reception allowed (6.4) since Week 8, giving up the 6th-most receiving yards (164.8) and 7th-most fantasy PPG (30.3) to WRs in that span, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Christian Watson @ DEN: He’s been a locked-in fantasy starter as of late, thanks to scoring five TDs in his last four games. However, he might struggle to keep up that pace against the Broncos, who have allowed just five TDs to WRs all year, per Jamey Eisenberg. There’s a chance he could also be shadowed by shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II, too, which wouldn’t help his cause whatsoever.

Michael Pittman Jr. @ SEA: He's been a target hog all season, but I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach on the Philip Rivers experiment with my season on the line.

Khalil Shakir @ NE: “The Bills have gone with a full-blown WR rotation over the last two weeks. Shakir’s route participation has been cut down to 52% and 53%, which crushes his projection in fantasy.” — Graham Barfield

😴 Sleepers

Chimere Dike @ SF: He’s been targeted +21% more often on a per-route basis when the Titans face Cover 4, which the 49ers deploy at the 4th-highest rate. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game (92.2), the 4th-highest passer rating (122.5), and the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG (+5.7) to the slot this year, where Dike runs 71% of his routes, per Ryan Heath.

Jakobi Meyers vs. NYJ: He may be too good to be considered a “sleeper” by now, but since Week 11, Meyers has been the Jags’ unquestioned WR1 with a 24.5% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 2.29 YPRR, and a 29.9% 1st-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and one deep target. He’s a strong WR2/3 again this week against the Jets, who have ranked 16th in PPR points per target against perimeter WRs since Week 10, per Derek Brown.

Tight End

Harold Fannin Jr. // Brian Fluharty, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Harold Fannin Jr. @ CHI: In three starts with Shedeur Sanders, Fannin has 15 catches for 197 yards and two TDs on 22 targets, per Jamey Eisenberg. The rookie has now scored at least 11.3 PPR points in each of his past two games, and should continue to get peppered with targets now that fellow TE David Njoku (knee) has been ruled OUT.

Twitter tweet

Theo Johnson vs. WAS: He has surpassed 10 PPR points in three of his last five games and has a proven connection with Jaxson Dart. Look for him to reach double-digits again today against a Commanders D that’s given up the 5th-most PPR points to TEs this season, per Gary Davenport.

Dalton Kincaid @ NE: Kincaid is the most efficient TE in the league, averaging a position-best 2.9 YPRR on the season, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak. His 7.1 YAC per catch also ranks 3rd at the position, which offers him a high ceiling in what could be a shootout against the Patriots.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Colston Loveland vs. CLE: Loveland hasn’t seen a target share over 19% since Week 9, and has run a route on only 62% of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks over the past month, per Kyle Dvorchak. Given those numbers, and the weather in Chicago today, you’re better off looking elsewhere for a streamer.

Dallas Goedert vs. LV: Prior to last week, he scored fewer than five points in three consecutive games. Plus, the Raiders have allowed the fewest yards to TEs since Week 10 and the 3rd-fewest on the season, per Michael Florio.

Tyler Warren @ SEA: Like with Michael Pittman Jr., it’s just too hard to trust this Indy offense today. You may not have a better option at the position, so you could hold your breath and start him, but I’d rather not.

😴 Sleepers

Mark Andrews & Isaiah Likely @ CIN: You can throw either of these guys in your lineup today, as the Bengals allow the 3rd-most receiving yards per game on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (108.4), which bodes well for these TEs, as they’ve each averaged just a 7.7 aDOT. It’s also well known now that the Bengals are allowing the most fantasy PPG to TEs of any defense over the past decade, per Ryan Heath.

Mike Gesicki vs. BAL: Gesicki had six catches for 86 yards and a TD last week against a Bills defense that had been stingy against TEs all season. Look for him to stay hot with Tee Higgins (concussion) OUT this week, as he averaged five catches for 62 yards and 0.4 TD in five games where Higgins was sidelined last year, per FFMetrics’ Andrew Duh.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 20-21-1

Nico Collins // Eric Christian Smith, AP Photo

🥇 Nico Collins OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-110)

• Nico has 75+ yards in five of his last six games since returning from injury. Plus, Arizona deploys Cover 3 (26.7%) and Cover 4 (26.1%) at a 52.8% clip, and Collins averages an elite 2.61 YPRR on 155 routes against those coverages. The Cards also allow the 14th-most receiving yards per game (106.7) and the 9th-most YPRR (2.04) to receivers aligned out wide, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 Rams -5.5 vs. Lions (-115)

• LA is a juggernaut, ranking 1st in offensive DVOA and 3rd in defensive DVOA, per SI’s Iain MacMillan. Meanwhile, Detroit will be without one — possibly two — starting safeties, along with their No. 1 corner and a few other key defensive pieces. That's bad news for them when their job is to try to stop the MVP favorite, Matthew Stafford.

🥉 Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 INTs (+105)

• Mahomes has now been intercepted in five of his last six games, with eight of his 10 picks on the season coming in that span. Meanwhile, the Chargers have 15 INTs on the season and trail only the Bears (18) in that category. They’ve also thieved Mahomes six times in the last 10 regular-season meetings, per Yahoo’s Matt Jacob.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read 10 Most Intriguing Players of Week 15 from FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice for his controversial take on consolation brackets and some of fantasy football’s biggest storylines heading into today’s action.

📖 Read 2025 Week 15 DFS Main Slate Breakdown from Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett for the fantasy industry's most comprehensive dive into this week’s DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Barrett’s insight will help you craft the perfect lineup, while also offering tips to help your regular fantasy lineups, too.

🎙️Listen to The Ultimate Fantasy Football Playoffs Cheatsheet from Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Talk Data to Me podcast, where he and Ian Hartitz offer positional breakdowns, streamers, and more insights to help you dominate your playoff run.

📺 Watch this wild ending to the Louisiana high school state championship game🤯:

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TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the semis.

- Marcus

Good morning.

The first round of the fantasy football playoffs starts tonight.

So put a pause on your Christmas shopping, cancel your plans, and lock in. No greater feeling than getting off to a hot start on a Thursday night.✊ 

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Join for free today!

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Saquon // Getty Images

📈 Saquon Barkley is BACK. He finally came to life with 122 yards and a TD on 20 touches last Sunday. This could be a sign of things to come, as his fantasy playoff schedule is JUICY — the Raiders, Commanders and Bills all rank inside the top-8 for most fantasy points allowed to RBs, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

📉 Stock Down: Jonathan Taylor. Old Man Rivers is a fun story, but the loss of Daniel Jones certainly hurts the Colts’ rest-of-season outlook. Taylor’s been insanely gamescript sensitive this season, averaging 31.5 fantasy PPG in wins, but just 11.7 fantasy PPG in losses, per Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. The Colts are 12.5-point underdogs this week against Seattle, and they’ll also be heavy underdogs versus the 49ers and Jaguars to close out the fantasy season.

📈 Stock Up: Devin Neal. He’s a workhorse for New Orleans, seeing snap rates of 74%, 82%, and 71% over the past three weeks. He’s now coming off his best NFL game (19/70/1 with one catch for 14 yards) and has two favorable matchups at home (CAR and NYJ) over the next two weeks. Carolina is ranked 23rd vs. RBs, while the Jets have the 4th-worst defense against RBs, per SI’s Shawn Childs.

🙅 Don’t be fooled by Tony Pollard. Most of his production came on a couple explosive plays last week, which have been few and far between this season. What’s most concerning is Pollard’s lack of passing game usage — he ran his lowest route share of the entire season (10.3%) last week, per Barrett, and the Titans will be throwing the ball often as massive underdogs against the 49ers and Chiefs over the next two weeks.

Wide Receiver

Jauan Jennings // Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

📈 Stock Up: Jauan Jennings. He might be a hoe, but he also has one of the easiest fantasy playoff schedules in the league with the Titans, Colts and Bears on the horizon — all of which are among the top-10 for fantasy points allowed to WRs, per Justin Boone.

📉 Stock Down: Justin Jefferson. J.J. McCarthy finally looked like an NFL QB last week, finishing with an efficient 163 passing yards with three TDs. So Jefferson had to have benefited from that, right? …right?! Nah, the superstar receiver finished with just four targets, and he caught just two passes for 11 yards. He finished with single-digit PPR points for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and checked in WR74 overall. Even with a soft upcoming schedule, I’ve given up all hope. You can bench him.

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✋ Hold Emeka Egbuka. His 110 targets are 8th-most in the entire NFL, only behind studs like Chase, McBride, JSN, Olave, Puka, Amon-Ra, and Pickens. What’s been killing him is his 49.1% catch rate — that's 181st among 192 qualifying pass-catchers, per Establish The Run’s Adam Levitan. Fluky stretches like this are bound to correct themselves. And the return of Mike Evans might actually benefit Egbuka, as it could potentially result in lighter coverage for him and more high-percentage underneath routes.

❌ Sit Mike Evans tonight. As long as you aren’t desperate, take a wait and see approach with the vet. He’s expected to be active for the first time since Week 3, but OC Josh Grizzard has made it sound like they’ll slowly ease him back into the fold…

Source: Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola via Coachspeak Index

QB / TE

Shake & Bake // Pewter Report

📈 Stock Up: Baker Mayfield. It’s been a rough stretch for the Bucs’ signal caller, but reinforcements are on the way: Mike Evans (collarbone) and Jalen McMillan (neck) could be active this week. Plus, Baker has scored at least 24.1 fantasy points in his past four games against the Falcons, including 28.6 points in Week 1. Atlanta has also allowed three of the past four quarterbacks to score at least 23.3 fantasy points, including Bryce Young, Tyrod Taylor and Sam Darnold, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. Start him.

📉 Stock Down: Justin Herbert. He hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in four straight games, finishing as the QB17 or lower each in each contest. It’ll be hard to trust him in the fantasy playoffs with matchups against the Chiefs this week and the stout Texans in Week 17.

➕ Add Marcus Mariota. Jayden Daniels is out this week, and it would be surprising if he returned at all this year. In his absence, Mariota produced three straight QB1 performances in his last three starts, averaging an impressive 42 rushing yards per game, per J.J. Zachariason. He’ll be a solid playoff streamer, with soft matchups against the Giants this week and the Cowboys in the fantasy championship.

🚀 Harold Fannin Jr. is being unlocked. In Week 14, the rookie TE had his coming-out party with career-highs in receptions (eight), yards (114), and targets (11), per RotoBaller’s Adam Koffler. Since Shedeur Sanders took over as the starter for the Browns in Week 12, Fannin has a 24% target share, 0.26 targets per route run, and 2.43 yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. He’s also played 90% of the snaps in the last three games, clearly leapfrogging David Njoku on the depth chart.

✅ Start Kyle Pitts tonight. Drake London is OUT once again. Over the last three games sans London, Pitts has become Kirk Cousins' favorite target in the passing game, totalling 23 targets, 13 catches, and 172 yards over that span, per RotoBaller’s Ryan Kirksey.

📈 Stream A.J. Barner down the stretch. Darren Waller flopped as our lowkey playoff TE streamer — he looks to be splitting with Greg Dulcich more than expected. If you’re desperate for a TE, feel free to flip to Barner. Fellow Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo left Sunday's game with a knee injury, and Seattle has a top-5 schedule for TEs in the playoffs, too. They get the Colts and Rams over the next two weeks, and both teams rank as top-10 opponents this season by adjusted points allowed, per J.J. Zachariason.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Scott Pianowski of Yahoo’s Fantasy Football Playoff Tips and Strategies, where he offers advice on roster composition, schedule analysis, and other insights to put yourself in the best position to win your championship.🏆️ 

📖 Read The NFL DFS Grind Down: Thursday Night Football - Falcons vs. Buccaneers from RotoGrinders’ Derek Farnsworth for a preview of tonight’s games and DFS lineup insight.

🎙️Listen to Lock In - Fantasy Football Playoffs Are Here from CBS Sports’ Beyond the Box Score, where Jacobs Gibbs and Dan Schneier bring you everything you need to know for the playoffs, like rest-of-season ranks and schedules, as well as insights into player usage across all 32 teams.

📺 Watch the heart-breaking Hard Knocks clip of Zach Ertz mic’d up during his season-ending (possibly career-ending) knee injury:

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TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Meme of the year.

Enjoy Falcons vs. Bucs.

🙏 Praying for an Emeka Egbuka TD 🙏 

See you Sunday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

You know what time it is…

Gif by GIFMakerX on Giphy

Gotta love this time of year… when your hopes and dreams rely on whether you’ve saved up enough FAAB to pick up Ryan freaking Flournoy. But names like this are what can win titles, so without further ado, let’s get after it…

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WAIVER WIRE 🧐

Roster %’s courtesy of ESPN. Bid amounts are generalized suggestions—always take into account your budget total, roster makeup, and typical leaguemate behavior.

Note: With the fantasy postseason here, you may also notice bid amounts are higher. There’s no sense taking that FAAB with you to the grave…

Running Back

Blake Corum // therams.com

Rams RB Blake Corum (22%) has now out-gained Kyren Williams on the ground in back-to-back games. Last week, he finished with 128 yards and two TDs on only one fewer carry than Williams. It wasn’t all just garbage time, either — Corum out-carried Williams in the 1st quarter and saw the same number as him in the 3rd, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. It would be hard to start him the next two weeks against Detroit and Seattle, but if you’re desperate, it’s comforting to at least have a piece of this high-powered Rams offense. Bid 75%.

Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez (31%) is the leader of Washington’s committee, which makes him a decent streaming candidate against a Giants defense that’s allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs. New York has given up at least 80 scrimmage yards and/or a TD to 10 different RBs over the last six games, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. Bid 60%.

Cardinals RB Bam Knight (43%) could remain the starter in Arizona for the rest of the year if Trey Benson isn’t activated this week. His ceiling isn’t very high, but he did have three double-digit fantasy performances in a row from Weeks 11-14. Bid 50%.

Giants RB Devin Singletary (28%) is in a similar boat. Tyrone Tracy Jr. left Week 13’s game with a hip injury, but has downplayed its severity. Keep an eye on the Giants’ practice reports — if Tracy can’t go, Singletary could be a viable streaming candidate against a Commanders' defense that’s allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs, per Justin Boone. Bid 50%.

• Other clear handcuffs that might still be available to stash (in order): Brian Robinson Jr. (19%), Tank Bigsby (19%), Bhayshul Tuten (25%), Emanuel Wilson (40%), Keaton Mitchell (2%), Ray Davis (5%), Tyjae Spears (33%), Dylan Sampson (8%), and Jaleel McLaughlin (1%). Bid 25+%.

Wide Receiver

Ryan Flournoy // NBC Sports

Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy (0%) stepped up and caught nine passes for 115 yards and a TD while leading the team with a 28% target share and a 50% air yards share, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak, after CeeDee Lamb came out with a concussion. This wasn’t his first breakout in the absence of Lamb. Earlier this year, Flournoy racked up 114 yards on six catches against the Jets, too. Lamb is reportedly progressing well in the concussion protocol, so Flournoy might be useless. But if Lamb can't go, you can plug Flournoy into the FLEX this week. Bid 50%.

Bears WR Luther Burden III (16%) led the team in receiving yards and was 2nd to only Colston Loveland in targets with Rome Odunze (foot) out. He hasn’t quite hit the ceiling his talent would suggest he has, but he’s still worth a roster spot. Bid 50%.

Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (27%) is the epitome of boom-or-bust, as he’s the WR42 in fantasy PPG despite having five top-24 finishes in weekly scoring. With the waiver wire being thin at WR, you might as well take a shot on Drake Maye’s top deep target. Bid 50%.

Texans WR Jayden Higgins (40%) was the WR24 from Weeks 10-13 before a rough game Sunday night in KC. Look for him to bounce back these next two weeks against the Cardinals and Raiders, who have allowed the 4th-most and 8th-most PPR points per target, respectively, to perimeter WRs, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. Bid 50%.

Jets WR Adonai Mitchell (35%) flopped last week, due in large part to Tyrod Taylor getting injured. If both Taylor and Justin Fields can’t go next week, you can leave Mitchell on the waiver wire. But if one of them happens to be good to go, Mitchell could bounce back in his next two matchups — since Week 9, Jacksonville and New Orleans, respectively, have allowed the 10th-most and 9th-most fantasy PPG to perimeter WRs, per Pat Fitzmaurice. Bid 15%.

• If Packers WR Jayden Reed (42%) is available, go get him. He slid back into his starting slot receiver role immediately after being activated off IR. Bid 80%.

QB & TE

Shedeur Sanders // Getty Images

Browns QB Shedeur Sanders (7%) has been inconsistent, but he showed a high ceiling last week against Tennessee, throwing for 364 yards, three TDs, and one INT while adding 29 yards and a TD on the ground. The rookie has at least one passing TD in all three starts and gets a date with Chicago this week, whose defense has given up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, per Kyle Dvorchak. Bid 60%.

Jags QB Trevor Lawrence (40%) has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games, including 19.4 against the Colts last week. That should continue this week against a Jets defense that’s been struggling since trading away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. Bid 60%.

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy (28%) had his first 20+ point performance since Week 1, throwing for three TDs against a brutal Commanders defense. Fortunately for Nine, it gets even easier this week, as he’ll take on a Cowboys’ defense that’s allowing the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, per Justin Boone. Bid 50%.

Commanders QB Marcus Mariota (11%) came in to relieve an injured Jayden Daniels last week. While HC Dan Quinn said Daniels could have returned to the game, there’s a possibility the team decides to play it safe and keep him on the sidelines. If that’s the case, stream Mariota against a Giants defense allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points and the most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, per Pat Fitzmaurice. Bid 40%.

Saints QB Tyler Shough (6%) is coming off his best fantasy performance with 22.3 points in a win over the Bucs, thanks in large part to 55 rushing yards and two TDs. He’s now accounted for two TDs and 19+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, while also reaching 239+ passing yards three times in that span. Bid 40%.

Ravens TE Isaiah Likely (8%) has scored 12.5 points in back-to-back games (despite his controversial dropped TD). Now he gets another dream matchup against the Bengals defense, which allows the most fantasy PPG to TEs, per NFL.com’s Dan Parr. Bid 75%.

Giants TE Theo Johnson (43%) now has eight targets in each of his past two games with Jaxson Dart while scoring at least 10.7 PPR points in three of his past five contests overall. Johnson has a great matchup this week against the Commanders, who have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg. Bid 50%.

D/ST

DUUUVAL // jaguars.com

The Jacksonville Jaguars (41%) have posted at least seven fantasy points in each of their last five games. That should continue this week against the Jets, who are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, per the staff at Yahoo, and might be down to their 3rd-string QB. Bid 50+%.

If the Philadelphia Eagles (60%) were dropped last week, scoop them up. They’ll take on the Raiders in Week 15, who are dead last in yards per carry, 28th in net yards per pass attempt, and 29th in INTs (14), per DraftKings’ Charlie Cummings. Bid 50+%.

The San Francisco 49ers (23%) will take on the Titans, who rank 31st in sacks allowed (49), 32nd in yards per game (246.2), and 31st in points scored per game (15.5), per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze. Bid 25%.

DEEP DIVES 🤿

Stash these players for cheap (5-50%) before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Ryan Flournoy.

Uncle Phil Back in Indy?!

Retired 44-year-old QB Philip Rivers (0%) will reportedly work out for the Colts this week to see if he can join their practice squad. You probably shouldn’t add him in fantasy, as Riley Leonard will start if healthy (though he does have a knee injury…), but I couldn’t resist adding him to this newsletter. I’d probably want to get out of the house too if I had 10 kids AND a grandson…

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Jets QB Justin Fields (26%) missed last week with knee soreness, but it’s possible he plays this week with Tyrod Taylor suffering a groin injury. Monitor injury reports throughout the week, but in the meantime you can stash Fields in Superflex leagues in case he gets a chance at redemption against the pass-funnel Jags defense.

Giants WR Darius Slayton (20%) has scored at least 11.2 PPR points in his last three games with Jaxson Dart. He’s a solid deep league streamer this week, as he’ll face a Washington defense allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Dolphins RB Jaylen Wright (2%) led the Dolphins with 24 carries after DeVon Achane suffered a rib injury. It sounds like Achane will be good to go, so this might be nothing more than a handcuff stash, but it’s encouraging to see Wright rack up 107 yards and a score, while Ollie Gordon II saw just five attempts (though he also found the end zone).

Commanders TE Ben Sinnott (0%) should slide into the top TE spot in Washington after Zach Ertz tore his ACL…

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At the very least, stash him in dynasty leagues.

Bengals TE Mike Gesicki (1%) just had the best game against Buffalo this season with six catches for 86 yards and a TD on six targets in Week 14, per Jamey Eisenberg. He has the chance to build off that this week if Tee Higgins (concussion) is out.

Raiders WR Jack Bech (3%) rose from the dead this week, leading the team in target share (18.8%), 1st-read target share (23.5%), receptions (6), and receiving yards (50), per Fantasy Points Data.

Bucs WR Jalen McMillan (2%) probably isn’t worth a roster spot in re-draft leagues, but he’s a fine dynasty stash. The 2nd-year WR is working his way back from multiple fractures in his neck and has a real chance to play this week for the first time all year. He looked explosive during his rookie season, hauling in eight TDs and averaging over 12 yards per catch.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Week 14 Instant Reactions from Yahoo’s Ray Garvin for his thoughts on last week’s most noteworthy action, including the struggling Chiefs and Christian Watson’s ascent.

📖 Read Week 14 Booms and Busts from Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski for insight on players that are either going into the fantasy football playoffs on a high note, or slumping at worst time.

🎙️Listen to Week 14 Recap: What We Learned for YOUR Playoff Strategy from ESPN’s Fantasy Focus Football, where Daniel Dopp, Field Yates, and Stephania Bell offer their biggest takeaways from last week and you can apply them to your playoff run.

📺 Watch Week 14 Fantasy Playoffs TRUST METER from Yahoo’s Matt Harmon and Justin Boone. I didn’t mean to shoutout three Yahoo pieces in one Quick Slants section, but they’ve got some bangers out this week — including this video, where the guys talk about how confident they are (or aren’t) in some of the league’s biggest names, like Jonathan Taylor, Emeka Egbuka, and more:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Hard to believe there’s only three weeks left of the fantasy season! What better gift for the holidays than a league championship?! Let’s win this f***in thing.✊ 

See you Thursday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

It’s the regular season finale, your playoff hopes are on the line, and four key teams are on a bye. This is the time of year where you gotta do what you gotta do…

Twitter tweet

So whether you're fighting for a playoff spot, jockeying for seeding, or just trying to play spoiler, we’ve got the starts, sits, and sleepers that’ll hopefully get you the dub you need.

Let’s get after it…

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Jordan Love // David Dermer, AP

✅ Start ‘Em

Jordan Love vs. CHI: Chicago both plays man and blitzes at above-average rates. Love is 3rd in yards, 2nd in pass TDs and 1st (by far) in EPA against man coverage, while also ranking 1st in EPA and 2nd in TDs when blitzed. On top of that, Chicago has allowed the 4th-most passing TDs and is in the top 10 in fantasy PPG allowed to QBs, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Baker Mayfield vs. NO: Despite his recent struggles and injured shoulder, Baker’s a solid start against this Saints defense. Since Week 9, they have allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt, the 12th-highest passer rating and success rate per dropback, and the 3rd-highest completion percentage over expected, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

Jacoby Brissett vs. LAR: Despite the tough matchup against the Rams, you have to start Brissett. The veteran has finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in all seven of his starts and is averaging the 5th-most fantasy PPG (21.3), per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Justin Herbert vs. PHI: On plays without LT Joe Alt on the field, the Chargers rank 27th in EPA per dropback and 15th in passing success rate. They looked competent last week against the Raiders, but Philly’s defense should pose more of a challenge — they’ve generated pressure at the 11th-highest rate this year, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Caleb Williams @ GB: Green Bay has allowed the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs. The Packers also rank 6th in passing yards allowed per game (186.5) and 9th in TD passes allowed (15), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Lamar Jackson vs. PIT: He has failed to reach 8 fantasy points in any of his last three games, with five turnovers and zero TDs in that span. He doesn’t look healthy — averaging just 19.6 rushing yards per game since returning from injury in Week 9. Plus, he’s been held to 14.9 fantasy PPG against Pittsburgh over his career, per Michael Florio.

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😴 Sleepers

Tyler Shough @ TB: Over the past three games, the rookie has averaged just under 15 fantasy PPG ahead of a matchup with a Buccaneers team that has given up the 6th-most fantasy PPG to QBs, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Daniel Jones @ JAX: Six of the last seven QBs to face the Jags have put up at least 20 fantasy points against them, including Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith and Davis Mills, who all scored over 26 points, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Running Back

R.J. Harvey // Derek Regensburger, IMAGO

✅ Start ‘Em

R.J. Harvey @ LV: Las Vegas has allowed three RBs to finish top-12 at the position over the last two weeks, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze. That, combined with Harvey’s consistent goal line work since J.K. Dobbins went down, means he’s a prime candidate to find pay dirt this week.

Quinshon Judkins vs. TEN: This could be a rare positive game script for Cleveland, plus the Titans have allowed the 9th-most fantasy PPG and 2nd-most rushing TDs to RBs in 2025, per Michelle Magdziuk.

Ken Walker @ ATL: Seattle enters the week as 7.5-point favorites against the Falcons, who give up the 10th most fantasy points to RBs, per FTN Fantasy’s Tyler Orginski. Walker may not even need a full workload to deliver this week.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Ashton Jeanty vs. DEN: His terrible offensive line has forced him to average just 1.2 yards before contact per attempt, which is dead-last among qualifying RBs. Things aren't likely to get any better this week against the Broncos, who are 5th in the league in run defense at 93.1 yards per game, per Gary Davenport.

D’Andre Swift @ GB: The Bears’ backfield with Swift and Kyle Monangai has become more of a 1A/1B situation. Plus, Green Bay allows the 9th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Woody Marks @ KC: Even though he's taken over the Houston backfield ahead of Nick Chubb, Marks has scored 7.9 PPR points or less in three games in a row despite getting at least 17 total touches in each outing. It also doesn't help that the Chiefs have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal @ TB: With the Saints as 8.5-point underdogs, the offense should lean heavily on the short passing game. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high 56.8 receiving yards per game to backs, while allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to RBs, per Jody Smith.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. @ MIN: He'll have room to run against the Vikings' 23rd-ranked run defense, which has surrendered a rushing TD in six consecutive games (seven in total during that span), per Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton.

Wide Receiver

Emeka Egbuka // Jefferee Woo, Tampa Bay Times

✅ Start ‘Em

Emeka Egbuka vs. NO: It’s been a struggle for Egbuka managers lately, but look for a bounce back today. His struggles have mostly been against two-high looks (0.81 yards per route run vs. two-high / 2.23 YPRR vs. single-high, per Fantasy Points Data). Since Week 3, the Saints have the 6th-highest rate of single-high coverage (58.9%) and are allowing the 2nd-most PPR points per target and 14th-most receiving yards per game to outside WRs, per Derek Brown.

Christian Watson vs. CHI: Since returning to the lineup in Week 8, Watson is the WR24 in fantasy PPG and has finished as a top-12 WR in two of his last three appearances. Meanwhile, the Bears are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to WRs, per Justin Boone, and just allowed A.J. Brown to dominate them with 10 grabs, 132 yards and two scores.

Jakobi Meyers vs. IND: He’s been the 13th best WR in fantasy football over the past three weeks, averaging 15.9 PPG with a 23% target share during that time frame, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed at least 90 receiving yards to a WR in three straight games, and shutdown corner Sauce Gardner isn’t expected to play.

BONUS START: Michael Wilson vs. LAR: This one’s simple — Marvin Harrison Jr. has been ruled OUT. Wilson averaged 27.7 PPR points in two games without MHJ, while racking up a 32% target share, per Kyle Dvorchak.

❌ Sit ‘Em

DeVonta Smith @ LAC: “Los Angeles allows the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs and the fewest to WRs. Saquon will need to carry the offense on the ground, and there just won’t be enough volume left for DeVonta to deliver.” — Tyler Orginski

D.K. Metcalf @ BAL: He's been brutal lately, scoring 9.9 PPR points or less in four of his past five games. He's also gone four games in a row without a receiving TD, and he has fewer than 50 receiving yards in each game over that span, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Xavier Worthy vs. HOU: Houston has allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points and 3rd-fewest catches to opposing receivers this season, per USA Today’s Jack McKessy. Look for their pass rush to get after Patrick Mahomes today, causing quick dump-offs to Rashee Rice, rather than deep shots to Worthy.

😴 Sleepers

Adonai Mitchell vs. MIA: Since joining the Jets, Mitchell has a 30% target share with at least one end zone target in all three games. Plus, over the last four weeks, Miami allows the 7th-most fantasy PPG to opposing WRs, per Matthew Berry.

Luther Burden III @ GB: Rome Odunze (foot) is OUT. Plus, the Packers play zone coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL (78.4%), and Burden is by far the Bears' best wideout against zone coverage, with 0.26 targets, 2.54 yards, and 0.51 fantasy points per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid // Getty Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid (if healthy) vs. CIN: This one’s simple…

Twitter tweet

If Kincaid (hamstring/knee) can’t go, you can stream Dawson Knox instead.

Juwan Johnson @ TB: Since the trade of Rashid Shaheed, Johnson is up to a 62.4% slot rate while averaging 1.88 YPRR, 5.1 YAC per catch, and 12.9 fantasy PPG, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Kyle Pitts vs. SEA: Since Week 7, Pitts has a 23% target share — the 5th-highest of any TE during that stretch. Meanwhile, only two teams allow more receiving yards per game to opposing TEs than the Seattle Seahawks, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Oronde Gadsden II vs. PHI: After producing double-digit fantasy points in four straight games from Week 6 to Week 9, his target share has fallen way off ahead of a matchup with an Eagles defense allowing the 4th-fewest PPR PPG to TEs this year, per Gary Davenport.

Dallas Goedert @ LAC: He’s scored 4.7 PPR points or less three games in a row, and he hasn't scored a TD since Week 8. Meanwhile, the Chargers have allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs, and only four guys have scored double digits in PPR against them all season, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Colston Loveland @ GB: The underlying metrics are encouraging, but Loveland has had only one TE1 weekly finish (TE3) since Week 10. Plus, Green Bay has held TEs to the 7th-fewest receiving yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy PPG, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange vs. IND: Strange has accounted for eight catches, 138 yards and a TD in his two games since returning to the lineup. You can expect that production to continue since the Colts are the 4th-easiest matchup for fantasy TEs, per Justin Boone.

Darren Waller @ NYJ: He returned to the lineup last week and led the Dolphins with 47 receiving yards while just missing a potential TD. He’s the clear red-zone target for Miami, while willl come in handy this week against a Jets D that’s allowed the 3rd-most TDs to TEs, per Michael Florio.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 19-19-1 (Jeff Fisher would be proud)

Rashee Rice // AP Photo

🥇 Rashee Rice OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-110)

• Houston deploys Cover 3 and Cover 4 at a 54.3% clip, and Rice averages a team-bests 2.79 yards per route run against those coverages. He also runs 43% of his routes from the slot, while the Texans give up the 10th-most receiving yards per game (78.3) and the 10th-most yards per route run (1.87) to slot receivers, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥈 Broncos @ Raiders UNDER 40.5 total points (-110)

• These teams played in Week 10 and combined for just 17 points, as Denver won 10-7. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, 2nd in sack %, and 4th in points allowed this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders aren’t a great defense, but they are a top-5 team in EPA/Rush and held Denver to just 84 rushing yards and 3.9 yards per play in their first meeting this season, per SI’s Peter Dewey.

🥉 Kyren Williams anytime TD scorer (+105)

• Williams has 10 TDs in 12 games this year, with at least one in four of his last five games. The Rams play the Cardinals, who are one of just six teams to allow at least 15 total TDs to opposing RBs this season, per CBS Sports’ Owen O’Brien.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s 10 Facts You Need To Know Before Week 14 of 2025 season, where The Talented Mr. Roto himself gives you lineup-altering insights in ways only he could.

📖 Read Christopher Allen of Fantasy Life’s Week 14 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, where he reviews all the important news and information impacting fantasy football, like injury updates, advantageous matchups, weather and more.

🎙️Listen to Angles and Upside Week 14 w/ Rich Hribar from Legendary Upside, where Hribar and host Pat Kerrane talk through Reeb’s Worksheet and Pat’s Walkthrough, highlighting key starts/sits and DFS plays. It’s a doozy (3 hrs 34 mins) but totally worth it.

📺 Watch Every Team's Chance To Make The Playoffs Week 14 from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Go get that W.✊ 

See you in the playoffs.

- Marcus

Good morning.

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Anyone else have Drake Maye on every team? …No? …Just me?

While I try to convince myself Tyler Shough’s gonna carry me to the playoffs, let’s dive into this week’s trends...

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MARKET TRENDS 🧐

Running Back

Chuba Hubbard // Rusty Jones, AP Photo

📈 Stock Up: Chuba Hubbard. He took home 59% of the snaps this past week, while Rico Dowdle’s 42% snap share was his lowest since Week 8, per Yahoo’s James Koh. Chuba looked like the more explosive back (4.9 vs. 3.2 yards per carry), and is more likely to see the receiving work going forward, with Dowdle being the early down back, per panthers.com’s Darin Gantt and Kassidy Hill.

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📉 Stock Down: R.J. Harvey. Even without J.K. Dobbins in the lineup, Harvey’s only playing roughly half the team’s snaps. Plus, the Broncos will face the Packers, Jaguars, and Chiefs during the three fantasy playoff weeks, giving them a bottom-5 schedule for RBs by adjusted points allowed, per J.J. Zachariason.

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🖕 Samaje Perine is limiting Chase Brown. With Perine back healthy, Brown played just 60% of the snaps and handled 47% of the designed carries. Meanwhile, Perine played 40% and handled 44% of the designed carries. Fortunately, Brown dominated routes, running 52% of them compared to 21% for Perine, per Fantasy Points’ Chris Wecht. While this usage is concerning, Brown should still be trusted as a low-end RB1 given the ceiling of Cincy’s offense with Burrow under center.

😬 Will Trey Benson ever return? He’s now missed his 3rd straight practice — not a good sign with just seven days remaining on his 21-Day practice window. If he can’t go after the three weeks are up, he’ll officially be out for the season. In the meantime, Bam Knight has put up quality RB2 performances three weeks in a row.

😒 Expect a tandem in the Chargers backfield. Omarion Hampton could be back this week, but Jim Harbaugh’s been talking up Kimani Vidal (in a way only Jim Harbaugh could😂):

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Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers // The Sporting News

📈 Stock Up: Jakobi Meyers. Even with the returns of BTJ and Brenton Strange, Meyers appeared to be the WR1, leading all Jags pass-catchers with a 35.3% first-read target share and a 0.138 first downs per route run last week, per Fantasy Points Data. Meyers' 2.63 yards per route run in four games with the Jaguars ranks 11th among wideouts since Week 10. Plus, Parker Washington is expected to miss time with a hip injury.

📉 Stock Down: Emeka Egbuka. Since Week 7, he’s the WR7 in expected fantasy PPG (17.8), but he's the WR34 in actual fantasy PPG (8.5). Just 30 of his 58 targets (51.7%) have been deemed catchable in this time, while 36 of his 42 targets were catchable during Weeks 1-6 (85.7%), per Fantasy Points Data. Don’t expect the numbers to get better any time soon given the return of Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield’s lingering shoulder injury.

😯 Scary Terry is BACK. Terry McLaurin only ran 67% of the routes in his return from a nagging quad injury, but he still totalled 96 yards on seven catches (14 targets!!) and one TD — most of which was against Patrick Surtain II, too. He clocked the most expected fantasy points among all WRs in Week 13, per Establish The Run’s Adam Levitan, and has a juicy Week 17 Fantasy Championship matchup against Dallas.

📈 Stream Isaac TeSlaa tonight. Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as Questionable, but many expect him to sit this one out. In his place will be TeSlaa, who’s sneaky athletic (white) — he’s 6’4”, 215 lbs and ran a 4.43 with an impressive 39.5” vertical leap. Next Gen Stats gave him a 96 athletic score, ranking first among all 2025 combine WRs, per James Koh.

QB / TE

Jayden Daniels // Nick Wass, AP Photo

🤫 Stash/Hold Jayden Daniels. He’s probably sitting on a team’s IR in your league, but double check to see if he was released. There’s a chance he returns soon, as HC Dan Quinn said he’s been “ripping” throws at practice. And if he does, he has a friendly fantasy playoff schedule — @ NYG (31st against fantasy QBs), vs. PHI (16th), and vs. DAL (32nd).

• If Daniels isn’t available, but Marcus Mariota is, grab him instead. There’s always a chance Washington doesn’t want to risk further injury with their franchise QB, leaving Mariota to be the best streaming option at QB for the fantasy playoffs.

📉 Fade Patrick Mahomes. He’s been lights out this year and carved up the Cowboys secondary, as expected. But things won't be as pretty over the final four weeks of the fantasy season — the Chiefs face the Texans, Chargers, Titans, and Broncos. Those teams rank as the toughest, 7th-toughest, 17th-toughest, and 2nd-toughest matchups for QBs by adjusted fantasy points allowed, per J.J. Zachariason.

📈 Stock Up: Darren Waller. The Dolphins basically used him as their WR3 last week, as the TE ran more routes out wide and in the slot than everyone except Jaylen Waddle and Malik Washington, and he ran more total routes than everyone except Waddle, per Chris Wecht. Thanks to this usage, as well as his soft playoff schedule we highlighted in Tuesday’s newsletter, Waller’s the top TE streamer for the fantasy playoffs.

📉 Stock Down: Isaiah Likely (in dynasty). Mark Andrews has signed a 3-year extension with the Ravens worth $39.3 million ($26 million guaranteed). Likely holders out there will have to give up hope of him ever becoming the unquestioned TE1 in Baltimore.

❌ Drop David Njoku. He hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 8, and has been targeted a total of six times over the last four games. Harold Fannin Jr. is the true TE1 in this Cleveland offense that can barely sustain any pass catcher production to begin with.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Top 8 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 13 Usage from Draft Sharks’ Jared Smola, where he answers questions like: Is Bucky Irving a league-winner? And what's up with Carolina's backfield now?

📖 Read this week’s edition of Facts vs. Feelings from ESPN’s Liz Loza, where she discusses seven players you should or shouldn't trust in Week 14 and the fantasy playoffs — including Joe Burrow, Saquon Barkley, Emeka Egbuka and more.

🎙️Listen to Playoff Push! Week 14 Start/Sit + The Ballers Fix Football from The Fantasy Footballers, where Andy, Mike and Jason talk the toughest start/sit decisions, player confidence levels, backup waiver wire options, injury updates, and a Thursday Night Preview.

📺 Watch Stats vs. Film from Underdog’s Josh Norris and Hayden Winks where they offer 32 fantasy football facts for all 32 teams, as well as other key takeaways from last week’s action:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Enjoy Cowboys vs. Lions.

See you Sunday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

We blinked and it’s already the final week of the fantasy football regular season. If you’re reading this, we’re assuming you’re either locked into the playoffs, are fighting for one of the last spots, or just have no life. Either way, we thank you.

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WAIVER WIRE 🧐

Roster %’s courtesy of ESPN. Bid amounts are generalized suggestions—always take into account your budget total, roster makeup, and typical leaguemate behavior.

Note: With the fantasy postseason approaching, you may also notice bid amounts are higher. There’s no sense taking that FAAB with you to the grave…

Running Back

Kyle Monangai // Chris Unger, Getty Images

Bears RB Kyle Monangai (56%) is averaging 12.7 half-PPR fantasy PPG over the last seven weeks — that's more than Saquon Barkley is currently averaging for the season, per RotoBaller’s Robert Lorge. He now has five TDs over his last seven games, including four consecutive weeks, and has proven to be a solid 1B option in Chicago. Bid 80%.

Rams RB Blake Corum (13%) finished with seven carries for an impressive 81 yards and a TD last week. Plus, Kyren Williams left the game briefly with an ankle injury — while he did return later in the game, this highlighted the importance of handcuff RBs. Bid 50%.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (33%) had just eight carries for 20 yards, but found the end zone again. That's his 7th rushing touchdown on the season (a career high, per Fantasy Life’s Kendall Valenzuela). With his red zone usage and handcuff upside, he continues to be a solid FLEX-with-benefits. Bid 50%.

Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez (12%) has led Washington in rushing attempts in back-to-back games, handling 53% of the RB carries in that span and posting a respectable 26 totes for 120 yards and a TD, per NFL.com’s Dan Parr. Bid 40%.

Saints RB Devin Neal (42%) had 69 yards (nice) on 17 touches last week, proving to be the clearcut Alvin Kamara fill-in. While his upside is severely limited, adding any starting RB this late in the year is hard to pass up. Bid 40%.

• Other clear handcuffs that might still be available to stash (in order): Brian Robinson Jr. (21%), Tank Bigsby (20%), Bhayshul Tuten (27%), Emanuel Wilson (62%), Keaton Mitchell (2%), Ray Davis (5%), Tyjae Spears (36%), Isaiah Davis (5%), Ollie Gordon II (8%), Devin Singletary (29%), and Jaleel McLaughlin (2%). Bid 25+%.

Wide Receiver

TeSlaa in Motor City // Junfu Han, Imagn Images

Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa (1%) saw increased work after Amon-Ra St. Brown went down with an ankle injury. He ultimately finished with just two receptions, but they went for 35 yards and a TD. ARSB’s a tough SOB, so don’t expect him to be out long, but given the quick turnaround (Detroit plays Thursday night), TeSlaa should be a solid one-week rental — especially against the Cowboys, who have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. Bid 30%.

Texans WR Jayden Higgins (36%) has hit double-digit PPR points in five of his past seven games. The rookie’s route rates and target share have slowly risen this year, too, as he’s now up to a 59% route rate with a 20% target share over the past month, per Kyle Dvorchak. Bid 30%.

Panthers WR Jalen Coker (3%) “was targeted six times by Bryce Young against the Rams, good for the most on the team. The 2nd-year pro may displace Xavier Legette as the Panthers' No. 2 receiver, which will give the Holy Cross product FLEX appeal in the fantasy playoffs.” — USA Today’s Jacob Camenker. Bid 20%.

Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks (1%) showed out on Thanksgiving with six grabs for 92 yards and two TDs. Good luck trying to guess which Packers WR will produce each week, but Wicks at least has a decent chance to do so if Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed remain out. Bid 15%.

• Speaking of Reed (40%), check to see if he was dropped when he went to IR. He could be activated this week or next. Same goes for Bucs WR Mike Evans (55%). Bid 80+% on each if they’re available.

QB & TE

Jacoby Brissett // NBC Sports

Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett (50%) shouldn’t be available anymore. But if you’re in a shallow league, you can officially buy in. He's scored 18+ fantasy points in all seven of his starts and has only been outscored by Josh Allen since taking over the starting role in Week 6, per The Fantasy Footballers’ Kyle Borgognoni. Bid 80%.

Jags QB Trevor Lawrence (34%) has averaged 18.1 fantasy PPG over the past six weeks, ranking 14th among QBs, per Nathan Jahnke. While his Week 14 opponent (Indy) looks tough on paper, they’ll be vulnerable without top CB Sauce Gardner. Bid 50%.

Jets QB Tyrod Taylor (5%) has finished as the QB8, QB15, and QB5 in his three starts this year, per Kyle Dvorchak. He has hit 40 rushing yards twice and has thrown at least one passing TD in all three starts, making him a solid streamer against Miami this week. Bid 30%.

Commanders QB Marcus Mario-TAH (9%) has reached 16.4+ fantasy points in five of his six starts, and he’s run for 22+ yards in all of those games, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. Bid 30%.

Panthers QB Bryce Young (12%) is on a bye this week, but there’s not shying away from the fact that he’s somehow been a top-4 QB two of the last three weeks…

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Bid 30%.

Jags TE Brenton Strange (22%) has the 3rd-most receiving yards of any TE since returning from injury in Week 12, trailing only Trey McBride and George Kittle in that span, per Dan Parr. After putting up 13+ fantasy points in each of the last two weeks, you can consider him a low-end TE1 going forward. Bid 70%.

Texans TE Dalton Schultz (52%) continues to produce. Excluding his Week 12 no-show against the top defense defending TEs (Buffalo), Schultz on the season is 3rd at the position with 72 targets and 58 catches, and his 10.8 fantasy PPG with only one TD on the season is good for TE11 on the year, per Fantasy Points’ John Hansen. Bid 60%.

Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. (51%) has at least hit 3+ receptions in seven of his last eight games, per Hansen. While the Browns offense is severely limited, Shedeur Sanders will at least try to throw it downfield. Bid 50%.

Dolphins TE Darren Waller (20%) had a 68.9% route share, a 13% target share and 47 scoreless receiving yards in his first game back from injury. While that statline won’t turn heads, Waller’s an ideal streaming option for those already in the playoffs — in Weeks 15 and 16 he’ll take on the Steelers and Bengals, who have, respectively, allowed the 6th-most and the most fantasy PPG to TEs, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. Bid 35%.

D/ST

Bucs D // Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23%) are the defense to roster for the fantasy playoffs (vs. NO, vs. ATL, @ CAR, @ MIA). They’ll be a must-start this week against the Saints, who have the 3rd-lowest scoring average in the league at 15.2 PPG, per Dan Parr. Bid 50+%.

The Miami Dolphins (14%) have forced seven turnovers in their last three games and get a Week 14 matchup against the Jets and QB Tyrod Taylor, who has been sacked 12 times and intercepted four times in his last four games, per Pat Fitzmaurice. Bid 15%.

The Washington Commanders (3%) defense is terrible, but they’ll be facing either Max Brosmer, who threw four INTs in his debut, or “Nine.” Nuff said. Bid 5%.

DEEP DIVES 🤿

Stash these players for cheap (5-50%) before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Isaac TeSlaa.

AD in NY

AD Mitchell // NBC Sports

Jets WR Adonai Mitchell (3%) leads New York in targets by a significant margin in his three games with the team (25; no one else has more than 18 in that span), per Dan Parr. He put up WR1-like production on Sunday, making eight grabs (on 12 targets) for 102 yards and a TD against the Falcons.

Saints WR Devaughn Vele (1%) was targeted a team-high eight times against the Dolphins and caught all of them for 93 yards and a TD. Following the team’s release of Brandin Cooks, look for their young targets like Vele to continue getting opportunities.

Bengals RB Samaje Perine (5%) returned to the lineup and instantly received a season-high 14 carries and 16 touches overall. To be fair, the Bengals were blowing out the Ravens and Perine was super inefficient, finishing with only 54 total yards. But this Cincinnati offense is back to full strength now, so grabbing any piece of it could be worth your while.

Cowboys RB Malik Davis (0%) finished with three carries for 47 yards and a TD, looking like the true backup to Javonte Williams — as opposed to my preseason darling, Jaydon Blue.🥹 

Ravens TE Isaiah Likely (8%) has been targeted on 23% of his routes from Week 9 onward, per Kyle Dvorchak, a stellar number for a TE. He’s still mostly just a TE handcuff, but his five catches for 95 yards on Thanksgiving showed he does have some standalone value in deeper leagues.

Titans TE Gunnar Helm (0%) is more of a dynasty stash, but the rookie’s averaging over six targets and five catches per game since Tennessee’s Week 10 bye. He seems to have overtaken Chig Okonkwo as the team’s TE1.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Week 13 Utilization Report for insight into his top takeaways from this past week’s action, including the unpredictable tandem in Carolina’s backfield.

📖 Read Week 13 Winners and Losers from ESPN’s Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft for insight into some of the best performances and biggest busts from last week.

🎙️Listen to Week 13 Takeaways from the Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry for more reactions to last week’s games and key fantasy-related takeaways.

📺 Watch the latest episode of Gruden’s Glossary — A Week in the Life of an NFL Head Coach:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Good luck on the waiver wire.

See you Thursday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

Ever since Thanksgiving, it feels like I’ve just been sitting around eating and watching football all day everyday. So now that it’s Sunday, what better way to celebrate than to continue sitting around eating and watching football?!

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Bo Nix // Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports

✅ Start ‘Em

Bo Nix @ WAS: He’s been up and down all year, but in three games against bottom-5 units in fantasy points allowed to QBs, Nix has finished as the QB2, QB9, and QB1. Now he draws a Washington defense that allows the 4th-most passing yards per game (249.5) and the 3rd-most TD passes (22), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Justin Herbert vs. LV: The Chargers are 9.5-point favorites with a top-3 implied total (25.75) today. That’s good news for Herbie, who averages 22.5 fantasy PPG in wins this year, which would rank 2nd-best among QBs playing today, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Jacoby Brissett @ TB: In all six of his starts this season, Brissett has scored at least 18 fantasy points while averaging 314.5 passing yards per game. Since Week 6, he’s the 5th-best QB in fantasy, and over the last four weeks, no team has given up more passing yards per game than the Bucs, per NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Brock Purdy @ CLE: He struggled through the air last week, throwing for just 193 yards, one TD, and three picks. Things won't get easier for him in Week 13 against a Browns D that has allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, while allowing only one QB to finish within the top-14 at the position since Week 3, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze.

Daniel Jones vs. HOU: Over his last three games, Danny Dimes has thrown four TDs, four INTs, and lost three fumbles. It won’t get any easier this week against Houston’s top-ranked defense, which allows the fewest fantasy points to QBs and has surrendered only 10 TD passes all season. Houston is the only defense yet to allow a top-12 QB in any week, per Jody Smith.

C.J. Stroud @ IND: He’s finally cleared concussion protocol, but don’t get too excited … Stroud is currently the QB20 by fantasy PPG and has just one top-10 weekly finish to his name. Meanwhile, the Colts D ranks 9th in EPA per dropback allowed, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

😴 Sleepers

Tyrod Taylor vs. ATL: The Falcons have allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing passers over the last five weeks (+5.2). Meanwhile, Taylor averages 17.7 fantasy PPG with 6.7 rush attempts, and 32.3 rushing yards per game over his last six full appearances. Those marks would rank 8th-best, 2nd-best, and 2nd-best among QBs playing today, per Ryan Heath.

Cam Ward vs. JAX: He’s hard to trust, but the 1st overall pick threw for 256 yards and a TD last week while running for 37 yards and a score (QB4). He’ll look to build on that today against a Jags D that’s allowed the 6th-most fantasy PPG to the QBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Running Back

R.J. Harvey // USA TODAY Sports

✅ Start ‘Em

R.J. Harvey @ WAS: With J.K. Dobbins on the shelf, Harvey led Denver’s backfield in snaps at 61%, but it didn’t result in much fantasy production. That should change today, as the Commanders have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, with eight backs scoring at least 13 PPR points against them this season, including seven of the past eight games, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

TreVeyon Henderson vs. NYG: Even with Rhamondre back in the fold, the rookie maintained a solid 65% snap share last week. Hopefully that means he’ll be their lead back going forward, as the Pats have the easiest schedule for fantasy RBs the rest of the way, beginning with a Giants’ defense that’s giving up the 2nd-most points to the position, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

Travis Etienne @ TEN: Over the last four weeks, Etienne is the 7th-best RB in fantasy football, totalling at least 18 touches in each game and a 13% target share in three of the four. The best part though? Since Week 9, no RB has more red zone touches than him, and only one team has allowed more rushing TDs to opposing RBs this season than the Titans, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Woody Marks @ IND: He’s taken over as the lead back in Houston and many experts are touting him as a start this week, but we aren’t falling for that again. After recommending him a few times over the last month, we’ve come to realize he just isn’t that good — Marks ranks 42nd in yards after contact per carry and 25th in breakaway rate. He is also outside the top 20 RBs in yards per route run, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Aaron Jones @ SEA: He’s averaged just 10.5 fantasy PPG since his return from injury. Plus, the Vikings travel this week to face the Seahawks, who have allowed the 2nd-fewest rush yards to RBs and just four rushing TDs. They’ve also allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry and are bottom two in yards before contact per carry and explosive run rate, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Rico Dowdle vs. LAR: He has just 25 carries for 83 yards over the past two games combined, and now faces a stout Rams defense that has surrendered the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this year, per Gary Davenport.

😴 Sleepers

Devin Neal @ MIA: With Alvin Kamara out, Neal will assume the starting RB role for New Orleans. He showed some promise in the receiving game last week, and should have a chance to do more of the same against the Dolphins D that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg. In fact, a back has scored at least 12.7 PPR points in two of the past three games against Miami, so look for Neal to do the same.

Kenneth Gainwell vs. BUF: He’s now had back-to-back games with over 100 scrimmage yards and 18+ fantasy points, while playing on over 50% of the Steelers‘ offensive snaps in three straight games. Gainwell will have a chance to stay hot today against a Bills D that’s allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game (148.9), 2nd-most yards per carry (5.3) and the most rushing TDs per game (1.6) in the NFL this season, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Wide Receiver

Waddle🐧 // Sam Navarro, USA TODAY Sports

✅ Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle vs. NO: The Saints run Cover 3 at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (39.7%), and Waddle has the 2nd-most air yards of any WR against Cover 3 (455) this season, while averaging 20.2 fantasy PPG in games he’s faced at least a 37% rate of such coverage (excluding one severe-weather game). Also, New Orleans has allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing outside WRs since Week 8, and Waddle has run 77% of his routes on the outside since Tyreek Hill’s injury, per Ryan Heath.

Ladd McConkey vs. LV: Over the last eight weeks, McConkey is tied for the 12th-most fantasy points among WRs. You can expect that trend to continue today against a Vegas team that’s allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to the position, per Justin Boone.

Khalil Shakir @ PIT: In four of the past five games, Shakir has at least a 23% target share, while finishing above 30% in three of them. Plus, the Steelers allow the 6th-most yards per game to slot receivers this season, per Matthew Berry.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Deebo Samuel vs. DEN: The Broncos rank 3rd in total defense and points allowed. They’ve given up the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to WRs and only two WR TDs all season. Deebo has also struggled with Marcus Mariota under center, averaging 39.4 receiving yards in Mariota’s five starts, compared to 54.6 with Jayden Daniels, per Jody Smith.

All 49ers WRs @ CLE: The Browns have allowed the 2nd-fewest receptions and 2nd-fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs this year, per Joey Pollizze. Plus, the weather in Cleveland is expected to be ugly today.

All Colts WRs vs. HOU: Houston has allowed the 7th-fewest yards and just six total TDs to WRs this season, while yielding league lows in passer rating and completion percentage on throws to WRs, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Troy Franklin @ WAS: We’ve already mentioned how back the Commanders D is. But it’s also important to note that Franklin has out-targeted Courtland Sutton in six straight games. He has a 27% target share and a monstrous 48% air yards share over his past five appearances, while earning a team-high first read target share of 28% during that stretch, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Kayshon Boutte vs. NYG: He’s been very hit-or-miss this year, but he has a chance to boom against a Giants D that has surrendered the 5th-most fantasy PPG to WRs, per Gary Davenport.

Tight End

T.J. // Steph Chambers, Getty Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Theo Johnson @ NE: Jaxson Dart’s return bodes well for Johnson, who was the TE10 in fantasy PPG during the rookie QB’s seven starts. The Patriots are also a plus-matchup for him, since they’ve given up the 11th-most fantasy points to TEs this year, per Justin Boone — despite only facing a couple of stars at the position.

Dalton Schultz @ IND: He’s poised for a bounce-back performance against the Colts, who have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points and 2nd-most receiving yards to opposing TEs this year, per Joey Pollizze.

Juwan Johnson @ MIA: J.J. has the 2nd most targets, receptions and receiving TDs on the Saints this season (behind only Chris Olave in each metric). It’s now been five straight weeks that Johnson has hit double-digit fantasy points, and he gets a nice matchup today against a Dolphins D that’s allowed the 4th-most fantasy PPG to TEs, per Michelle Magdziuk.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Hunter Henry vs. NYG: He was basically a non-factor in his previous eight games before he went off last week, turning his 31 targets into just 21/257/2 receiving across Weeks 4-11. Meanwhile, the Giants have been good against TEs this season, holding them to the 5th-fewest yards per target and 8th-fewest yards per game, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

T.J. Hockenson @ SEA: In his last 18 games with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison active, Hockenson has turned his 98 targets into 76/742/2 receiving (TE25 by fantasy PPG), per Barfield.

Pat Freiermuth vs. BUF: He came threw with a TD last week, but has otherwise been held to single digits in three of his last four games and eight times overall this season. Plus, this week’s matchup against the Bills is a brutal one — just one TE (Travis Kelce) has scored more than 7.5 points against them, and even Kelce scored just 12.6 points in when he did it in Week 9, per SI’s Michael Fabiano.

😴 Sleepers

Brenton Strange @ TEN: He looked great in his first game back from a hip injury with five catches for 93 yards on five targets last week. That's now three healthy games in a row with at least 10.5 PPR points going back to Week 4, and I would expect more of the same this week against Tennessee, who has allowed two TEs in the past three games to score at least 11.1 PPR points, per Jamey Eisenberg.

Taysom Hill @ MIA: With Alvin Kamara getting hurt last week, Hill ended up leading the team with 10 carries. New Orleans had four goal-line snaps in that game, and Hill played all of them, while also adding two red-zone passes and running five routes. Expect him to sneak into the backfield enough to produce today against a Dolphins D that has allowed the 4th-most rushing yards in the NFL, per Michael Florio.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 18-17-1

Josh Allen // ESPN

🥇 Josh Allen OVER 234.5 passing yards (-112)

• Allen has averaged 292 passing yards over his last three games and will take on a Steelers D that has allowed 278 passing yards per game across its last five outings, giving up at least 245 yards to four of those QBs, per The Huddle’s Dan Mader.

🥈 Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-130)

• BTJ has gone over this number in six out his eight games this season and has a decent matchup against a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 12th most passing yards per game (236.6), per Fantasy Points’ Bill O’Brien.

🥉 49ers @ Browns UNDER 35.5 points (-120)

• This one’s simple — neither team has been moving the ball well, Cleveland’s defense is elite, and the forecast is calling for possible rain and/or snow along with 25-35 mph winds and occasional wind gusts over 40 mph, per Luke Christensen.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

There’s been a lot of debate surrounding the Eagles’ decision to go for two late in Friday’s game…

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QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Derek Brown of FantasyPros’ The Primer: Week 13 Edition for a comprehensive guide of everything you need to know ahead of today’s games, including starts, sits, rankings, and breakdowns of every matchup around the league.

📖 Read ESPN’s Week 13 picks, predictions, schedule, odds, fantasy tips for a comprehensive preview of today’s action, including reports, stats, betting insight, hot takes, projections, and more.

🎙️Listen to Week 13 Preview + Fantasy Film Room: Can Jaxson Dart CARRY You to a Title?! + 4 Bold Playoff Predictions from Justin Boone and Matt Harmon of Yahoo Fantasy Forecast. The title says it all really, as the guys offer insight for every matchup while also diving into Boone's 6 pack of fantasy questions.

📺 Watch The ENTIRE History of NFL Thanksgiving from NFL Throwback. The Butt Fumble still makes me laugh to this day:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Good luck this week.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus

Happy Thanksgiving!🦃 

Instead of arguing politics at the dinner table or listening to your uncle ramble on about conspiracy theories, try to be thankful for the elite Thanksgiving matchups we’ve been blessed with this year — Packers vs. Lions, Chiefs vs. Cowboys, and Bengals vs. Ravens.😍

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But before you turn on the TV, check out a little something we’ve been cooking up…

CLICK HERE to apply to join a group of beta testers for our new Morning Huddle Pick’em game, or forever wonder what might’ve been.👀 

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_{Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.}

MARKET TRENDS 🧐

With most trade deadlines in the rear view mirror, our Thursday newsletter will now shift from predominantly buys/sells to more of a stock up/stock down report with other notable trends around the league.

Running Back

De’Von Achamp // NBC Sports

🏆️ DeVon Achane is a league-winner. He’s already a proven stud, ranking 4th in rushing yards per game (81.8), 3rd in yards per carry (5.49), 1st in explosive run rate, 3rd in route share (66.0%), 2nd in targets per game (6.5), 4th in receiving yards per game (33.6), and 4th in fantasy PPG (21.4). But the best part of all? Achane will come out of his Week 12 bye with the 2nd-easiest rest of season schedule and the easiest playoff schedule among all RBs, per Fantasy Points’ Kyle Menton.

📈 Stock Up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. From Weeks 9-11, Devin Singletary racked up 10 carries from inside the 10 with Tracy seeing zero. In fact, coming into last week, Tracy had exactly one carry from inside the 10 all season long. However, in Week 12, Tracy saw THREE carries in goal-to-go situations while also playing 71% of the snaps, his highest snap share since Week 1, per Yahoo’s James Koh. This backfield looks to be shifting in Tracy’s favor.

📉 Stock Down: D’Andre Swift. Kyle Monangai played more snaps than Swift (56% to Swift's 43), had more carries (12 to eight) and ran more routes (16 to 13) last week. The rookie also scored the goal-line TD, leaving Swift with a sad 1.9 fantasy points. You can comfortably bench Swift on Black Friday against an Eagles D that has allowed the 6th-fewest rush yards to RBs since Week 8, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio.

Wide Receiver

Christian Watson // Nic Antaya, Getty Images

☝️ Christian Watson is Green Bay's WR1. In each of the last three weeks, Watson has led Packers receivers in snaps and routes. He’s finally shown a solid floor to pair with his high ceiling — Watson leads the league in yards per target during the 2024-2025 seasons (min. 50 targets), per Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz.

📈 Stock Up: Zay Flowers. The Ravens face the Bengals twice in the next three weeks, with the Steelers sandwiched between. Prior to last week, the Steelers at the Bengals were ranked 32nd and 31st, respectively, in passing yards allowed per game, per PFSN’s Cameron Sheath. Flowers hasn’t had a top-20 fantasy finish since Week 1, but could very realistically have multiple top-10 finishes in the next few weeks.

📉 Stock Down: Justin Jefferson (really the entire Vikings offense). J.J. McCarthy now ranks 851st out of 852 in EPA per Dropback among qualified passers since 2000, per The Ringer’s Danny Heifetz. The only player below McCarthy is JaMarcus Russell.😐️ Jefferson’s fantasy points per route run is at a career-low 0.41, per Player Profiler’s Edward DeLauter, and I don’t imagine it getting much better with UDFA Max Brosmer potentially starting at QB for Minnesota this week.

QB / TE

👱 Burrow is BACK. Despite the Bengals being a long shot for the postseason, Joey Brrr decided playing on Thanksgiving was just too sweet to pass up. There’s a risk given his injury, but let’s not forget last December when Burrow logged 8.1 yards per attempt, 75.3% completions, +0.17 EPA, and a 55.0% 3rd-down rate with 16 total TDs across five games (QB4 overall), per DraftKings’ Dan Johnson.

📉 Fade Caleb Williams. He's been a top-6 fantasy QB in three of his last four games, but that was against the Bengals, Giants, and Steelers — all of which are top-10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, per J.J. Zachariason. Unfortunately, the Bears will close out the fantasy season with matchups against the Eagles, Packers, Browns, Packers, and 49ers — one of the worst remaining schedules among all signal-callers.

📉 Don’t fall for Hunter Henry’s spike week. His opponent last week — the Bengals — allow the most fantasy PPG to opposing TEs (15.9). For perspective, the next closest team is the Jaguars, who allow 10.8 PPG, per QB List’s Kyle McCarthy. Before last week, Henry hadn’t had a double-digit fantasy performance since he did it in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 3 and 4, so don’t expect it very often going forward.

📈 Stock Up: Colston Loveland. “In Week 12, he saw his highest route share (68%) in a game with Cole Kmet this year, and that resulted in a solid 16.7% target share. Loveland currently sits with a 1.76 yards per route run rate — that's not only far better than Kmet's 0.97 rate, but, per PFF, it's a top-10 one among qualified TEs this year.” — J.J. Zachariason

Twitter tweet

THANKSGIVING PREVIEW 🦃 

Turkey Time // Kimberly P. Mitchell, Imagn Images

Start ‘Em

✅ Bengals QB Joe Burrow: The Ravens defense has been stingier of late, but it has still allowed the 6th-most passing yards since Week 8, per Michael Florio. Plus, in two games against the Ravens last season, Burrow threw for 820 yards and nine TDs.

✅ Packers WR Christian Watson: I already mentioned how he’s taken over this receiver corps. Plus, the Lions have allowed the most yards on deep passes to receivers since Week 8, per Michael Florio.

✅ Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas: He’s a solid streamer in deeper leagues with Tee Higgins (concussion) out. In his three games where he’s seen seven targets this season, he's averaging 13.9 PPR points, and the Ravens have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

✅ Ravens TE Mark Andrews: “We’ve seen his usage tick up just a bit over the last month (52% > 61% > 65% > 66% route share) and it really couldn’t come at a better time … The Bengals allow a league-high 87.5 yards per game and have given up 13 TDs (13!!!) to TEs.” — Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield

Sit ‘Em

❌ Lions QB Jared Goff: The Packers have only allowed 13 passing TDs to QBs this season, tied for the 7th-fewest in the league, per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker. They also limited Goff to just one garbage-time score in their Week 1 meeting, a game during which Detroit couldn't do much offensively.

❌ Cowboys RB Javonte Williams: It’s tough to sit any starting RB in most formats, but at least temper your expectations. Williams has averaged only 12.5 fantasy PPG over his last six games and has been held to 10.3 or fewer points in three of them. He also has a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that just held Jonathan Taylor to 8.6 points.😬 

❌ Lions RB David Montgomery: “The veteran has played 24 or fewer snaps in three of his last four games, and he’s failed to score more than 11 points in each of his last six contests. The Packers defense hasn’t been consistently great against backs, but it has allowed the 9th-fewest PPG to the position.” — SI’s Michael Fabiano

❌ All Chiefs RBs: Isiah Pacheco is back in the lineup, which means we’ll get a gross committee once again. When healthy, Pacheco led Hunt in snaps (57% to 34%), but the latter was the goal-line back, totalling a team-high eight carries inside-the-10 in eight games with Pacheco, per Graham Barfield.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Best/Worst Fantasy Football Playoff Schedules and Matchups for Weeks 15-17 from RotoBaller’s Frank Ammirante for insight on who to target or fade ahead of your fantasy postseason — including D/STs to stream.

📖 Read Thanksgiving Day Trifecta: Odds, tips and best bets for Thursday's games from ESPN, where Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Eric Moody, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder help prepare those of you looking to lay down some cash on today’s games.

🎙️Listen to Power Ranking Players We’re NOT Thankful For from The Ringer Fantasy Football Show, where Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly, and Craig Horlbeck talk under-the-radar players who have been ass, along with a preview of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games, their “Waddle Model,” and another Fantasy Court question.

📺 Watch ESPN’s piece on Browns legend Bernie Kosar getting a new lease on life with a liver transplant from a young fan:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

And remember: it’s a privilege to spend an entire holiday stressing about the fake football team you manage. We think it’s totally normal…

See you Sunday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

And congratulation to those of you with Jahmyr Gibbs on your team. Can only imagine how you walked into work Monday morning…

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WAIVER WIRE 🧐

Roster %’s courtesy of ESPN. Bid amounts are generalized suggestions—always take into account your budget total, roster makeup, and typical leaguemate behavior.

Running Back

Devin Neal // Stephen Lew, Imagn Images

Saints RB Devin Neal (2%) will start in New Orleans for the forseeable future after Alvin Kamara suffered an MCL sprain. In Kamara’s absence, Neal played 74% of the snaps en route to racking up 61 scrimmage yards on 12 touches. His upside is limited in this offense, but the Saints have one of the easiest RB schedules remaining with the Dolphins, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jets and Titans, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone. Bid 50%.

Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell (57%) took advantage of a banged up Jaylen Warren, leading the team’s backfield in snap share (52%) and rushing yards (92) while reaching his 2nd-highest yardage total of the season. He also paced Pittsburgh backs in routes run (18), targets (six), and receiving yards (30), per RotoBaller’s Phil Clark. He’ll be limited any time Warren plays, but he’s still a high-end handcuff with FLEX appeal. Bid 25%.

Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (9%) has had either double-digit carries or a TD in each of his last three games, per FantasyPros’ Pat Fitzmaurice. Washington’s backfield has seemingly shifted in his favor, as he hit a season-high 53% backfield carry share in Week 11 while Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s fell to 32%, his lowest since Austin Ekeler’s injury, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Bid 20%.

Bears RB Kyle Monangai (55%) led the team’s RBs in snaps, carries and routes on Sunday while also scoring the team's lone rushing TD. He has a tough matchup against the Eagles this week, but the rookie has run for a TD in each of the last three games and handled 12+ carries in three of the last four contests, per NFL.com’s Dan Parr. Bid 20%.

• Check if Cardinals RB Trey Benson (56%) is available. He’s still on IR but is expected to be activated this week and should head Arizona’s backfield committee. Bid 50%.

• Other clear handcuffs that might still be available to stash (in order): Tyler Allgeier (33%), Blake Corum (14%), Brian Robinson Jr. (22%), Tank Bigsby (20%), Bhayshul Tuten (30%), Emanuel Wilson (75%), Keaton Mitchell (1%), Ray Davis (5%), Tyjae Spears (37%), Isaiah Davis (6%), Ollie Gordon II (7%), Devin Singletary (35%), and Jaleel McLaughlin (1%). Bid 5+%.

Wide Receiver

Jayden Higgins // Tim Warner, Getty Images

Texans WR Jayden Higgins (23%) cemented himself as Houston’s 2nd receiving option, finishing solely behind teammate Nico Collins in snaps for the 3rd straight contest, per RotoBaller’s Alex Ciulla. He’s now seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games, and has now posted at least 9.5 fantasy points in three straight. Bid 15%.

Bears WR Luther Burden III (8%) continues to show flashes. The rookie’s 2.30 yards per route run ranks 13th among all WRs, sandwiched between CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase. Even when removing his 65-yard flea-flicker from earlier in the year, his 1.83 YPRR would still be 32nd, right by Davante Adams (1.86), Chris Olave (1.83), and AJ Brown (1.80), per Footballguys’ Dave Kluge. Bid 15%.

Twitter tweet

Titans WR Chimere Dike (12%) has now scored 16+ fantasy points in three of his last five games, averaging 13.1 PPG in that span. He remains fantasy-relevant with Calvin Ridley out for the season and Elic Ayomanor banged up. Bid 5%.

QB & TE

Jacoby Brissett // Sam Hodde, Getty Images

Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett (47%) must’ve been added by now, but still check anyway. He’s scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his past six games. No other QB has an active streak longer than three games with that many PPG, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke. He’ll be a viable streamer again next week against Tampa, who have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Bid 15%.

Jags QB Trevor Lawrence (29%) has had a tough schedule, facing off against the Raiders, Texans, Chargers, and Cardinals since his Week 8 bye — three of those teams are among the 10 toughest matchups for fantasy QBs. But what’s encouraging is T-Law has hit at least 20 rushing yards in three of those four games with three total rushing TDs, per RotoBaller’s Dan Fornek. Bet on him improving over the next three weeks against the Titans, Colts, and Jets. Bid 1-5%.

Titans QB Cam Ward (5%) “enjoyed his best game of the season on Sunday, scoring 23.9 fantasy points against the Seahawks, who have one of the league's stingiest defenses. The next step for him is establishing some consistency, and he has an opportunity to do so in Week 13 against the Jaguars, who have allowed the fantasy QB8 or better in four of their last five games.” — Dan Parr. Bid 1-5%.

Bears TE Colston Loveland (35%) has been a steady producer since his Week 9 with 4-55-0, 3-40-0 and 4-49-1 lines. Those three performances are enough to make him a top-12 fantasy TE over that span, per Justin Boone. He’s a low-end TE1 going forward with spike week potential. Bid 30%.

Giants TE Theo Johnson (55%) had a career-high 77 yards against Detroit this past weekend and has racked up 18 receptions for 215 yards and a TD over the past month, per RotoBaller’s Craig Rondinone. He’s a fixture in New York’s offense and a solid low-end TE1. Bid 20%.

Jags TE Brenton Strange (11%) caught all five of his targets for a team-high 93 receiving yards in his return from injury. Excluding the game in which he was hurt, Strange is now averaging 4.8 catches for 55 yards per game, per Jacob Camenker, making him a decent low-end TE1 option. Bid 10%.

D/ST

LAC // Mark Brown, Getty Images

The L.A. Chargers (29%) should bounce back this week against the Raiders, who have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses and are less than half a point behind the Titans for the top spot in that category. These two teams faced off already in Week 2, and the Chargers put up 13 points via three sacks, three INTs, and just nine points allowed, per Roto Street Journal’s Sean Keegan. Bid 5-10%.

The Atlanta Falcons (36%) have totaled 23 sacks over the past four weeks, including a five-sack performance against the Saints last week. With a top-5 pressure rate, top-3 sack rate, and a top-6 pass rush win rate, per RotoBaller’s Joey Pollizze, this Atlanta defense is a fantastic start against the New York Jets in Week 13. Bid 5-10%.

The Miami Dolphins (2%) D/ST averaged 11 fantasy points in their two games prior to the Week 12 bye. Now they host a Saints offense that is tied for last in points per game (15), per Dan Parr. Bid 1-5%.

DEEP DIVES 🤿

Stash these players for less than 5% before they blow up. Last week, the perfect pickup was Devin Neal.

Shedeur SZN?!

Ian Maule, Getty Images

Browns QB Shedeur Sanders (5%) will officially start this week, and could potentially keep the job for the rest of the season. Don’t get carried away after one performance, though — the Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL, and most of Sanders' fantasy points came on a check-down to Dylan Sampson, who housed it for a 66-yard TD. But Shedeur did flash enough big play potential to be added in Superflex leagues.

Saints TE/Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill (1%) led the Saints in carries Sunday with 10, per USA Today’s Jacob Camenker, and should continue to see plenty of work — especially around the goal line — with Kamara out.

Jets WR John Metchie III (1%) may have found a home in New York:

Twitter tweet

Garrett Wilson is out at least two more weeks, making Metchie a decent streaming candidate in deeper leagues and a solid dynasty stash.

Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas (11%) led Cincinnati with seven targets and 61 receiving yards in Week 12, due in large part to Ja’Marr Chase being suspended and Tee Higgins leaving the game with a concussion. Iosivas is worth streaming consideration in deeper leagues this week with Higgins sidelined.

Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell (1%) is operating as Derrick Henry’s handcuff. The speedster is 7th among all backs in explosive run percentage (9.5%), according to Fantasy Points Data, and has also averaged at least 5.0 yards per attempt during four of his five healthy games while generating four explosive runs, according to PFF.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read The Fantasy Football Playoffs Mismatch Report: Who Have the Best and Worst Schedules Weeks 15-17? from FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz for a full breakdown of which players have the best and worst fantasy playoff schedules.

📖 Read Monday NFL Roundup: Week 13 from Footballguys’ Jeff Bell for a recap of last week's action in the NFL, including significant stats, spikes, landmines, and deep sleepers.

🎙️Listen to the Fantasy Points Podcast’s Week 12 Fantasy Football Review, where John Hansen and Brian Drake for a complete, analytics-powered recap of last weekend’s action, including Jahmyr Gibbs’ nuclear performance and Shedeur Sanders’ big win.

📺 Watch Kyle Shanahan talk about his history with Christian McCaffrey and how he looked up to the RB’s dad, Ed:

Twitter tweet

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Good luck on the waiver wire.

See you Thursday.

- Marcus

Good morning.

It’s Week 12, which means the holidays are approaching, (hopefully) you’re fighting for a playoff spot, and my Browns are starting their 3rd different QB of the year—a tradition unlike any other.

In all seriousness, this is the best time of year. So soak it in, enjoy it, and eat a W while you’re at it.

CHEAT CODE 🧩

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STARTS & SITS 🧐

Quarterback

Jared Goff // Gregory Shamus, Getty Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Jared Goff vs. NYG: The Giants are allowing more than 20 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs this season and rank 29th in team coverage grade, per PFF’s Beckett Mesko. It also helps that Goff’s playing at home, as the splits for him at home vs. on the road and indoors vs. outdoors are well documented.

Caleb Williams vs. PIT: This is an ideal bounce back game for Williams, as Pittsburgh has the NFL's worst pass defense and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season, per Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport.

Brock Purdy vs. CAR: Among 43 qualifying passers, he ranks 7th in yards per attempt, 3rd in passing yards per game, 8th in completion percentage over expected, and 15th in catchable target rate. Purdy is a strong start this week against a Panthers D that has allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt while ranking 20th in completion percentage over expected and success rate per dropback, per FantasyPros’ Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield @ LAR: He’s finished below the 20 fantasy point mark in three of his last four games. It won’t get any easier this week, as he’ll take on a Rams secondary that has the highest coverage grade in the NFL this season, per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

Daniel Jones @ KC: Indiana Jones has been struggling as of late, totalling three TDs and four INTs in his last two games. Don’t expect it to get much better today, as he and the Colts will travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to QBs and is tied for the fewest TD passes allowed (9), per Draft Sharks’ Jody Smith.

Jordan Love vs. MIN: Since the Packers’ bye, Love has been QB17 or worse in four of his six games. Don’t expect much better today against a Vikings D allowing the 6th-fewest passing yards on the season, per Yahoo’s Justin Boone.

😴 Sleepers

Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX: The Jags’ defense has collapsed over the past two months. They were the No. 3 defense by EPA per passing play allowed in September, but that has fallen to No. 24 in the last two months. And teams have taken notice — the Jags’ pass-funnel defense has faced a +4% pass rate over expected this year, easily the highest mark in the league, per NBC Sports’ Kyle Dvorchak.

Bryce Young @ SF: He blew up out of no where with 448 yards last week against Atlanta, and now he’ll take on a 49ers team that ranks 30th in defensive success rate and has surrendered the 9th-most fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, per Gary Davenport.

Running Back

Ken Walker // Steven Bisig, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Ken Walker @ TEN: The Titans have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to opposing RBs (+2.2), the 8th-highest explosive run rate (5.9%), and the 3rd-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (2.52). That bodes well for Walker, who averages 9.05 yards per carry (4th-most) and a 17.5% explosive run rate (3rd-best) on carries where he wasn’t contacted until at least 2.0 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath.

Alvin Kamara vs. ATL: Since Week 7, Atlanta has allowed the most fantasy PPG to opposing RBs. Six backs have scored at least 12.7 PPR points against them over that span, with eight total TDs, per CBS Sports’ Jamey Eisenberg.

TreVeyon Henderson @ CIN: This one feels risky, given the fact that Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to play. But Henderson has averaged 24.3 fantasy points in his three starts and faces a Bengals D that has allowed the most rushing yards and fantasy PPG to opposing RBs, per NFL.com’s Michael Florio. Take a leap of faith that Vrabel will do the right thing and feed the rookie.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Chase Brown vs. NE: RB depth is hard to come by, so I get it if you have no choice but to start him. But in shallower leagues, Brown can be left on your bench against a New England defense that has surrendered the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL, while also allowing the fewest fantasy PPG to RBs in AFC, per Gary Davenport.

Breece Hall @ BAL: Similarly, you may have to start Hall. But just know that 73% of his rush attempts have utilized zone concepts this year (2nd-most), and the Ravens have allowed the 3rd-fewest yards per carry to opposing zone concepts (3.47), per Ryan Heath.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. @ DET: The Lions are No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. Only four backs this season have scored at least 12 PPR points on them, and none since Week 4, per Jamey Eisenberg.

😴 Sleepers

David Montgomery vs. NYG: Monty has averaged 8.5 PPR points in losses compared to 13 in wins this year. He and the Lions are favored by 10.5 points at home against the Giants, and no team has allowed a higher EPA per rush than New York, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Bhayshul Tuten @ ARI: The Cardinals have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg. Plus, prior to leaving with an ankle injury in Week 11, Tuten had more carries than Travis Etienne (15-12), finishing with 74 rushing yards and a TD.

Wide Receiver

Jamo // Lon Horwedel, Imagn Images

✅ Start ‘Em

Jameson Williams vs. NYG: The Giants have deployed man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (40.5%), and Jamo has seen a +74% boost in yards per route run against man coverage than against zone this season, per Ryan Heath.

DeVonta Smith @ DAL: The Cowboys have allowed the most TDs and 3rd-most fantasy PPG to WRs, while also giving up the 7th-most yards to WRs, per Michael Florio. A.J. Brown’s worth a start, too, but we prefer Smith, given Ryan Heath’s note that Dallas plays the 2nd-highest rate of zone coverage (79.9%), and against such coverage, Smith sees a +40% boost in his yards per route run.

Michael Wilson vs. JAX: Don’t expect 185 yards again, but Jacksonville has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points to WRs and has struggled against No. 1 wideouts, who have averaged 17.1 fantasy PPG, per Jody Smith.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jordan Addison @ GB: In three games with J.J. McCarthy, Addison has averaged just 2.3 catches and 34.3 yards. Now he faces a Green Bay defense allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to WRs, per Jody Smith.

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Ricky Pearsall vs. CAR: He’s earned 16% or more of the targets in just 3-of-11 career games with both Jauan Jennings and George Kittle in the lineup, per Fantasy Points’ Graham Barfield.

Michael Pittman Jr. & Alec Pierce @ KC: The Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest yards and TDs to receivers, as well as the 7th-fewest fantasy PPG to the position. They’ve also allowed the 2nd-fewest yards and zero TDs on deep passes, as well as the 5th-fewest yards to out-wide receivers, per Michael Florio.

😴 Sleepers

Luther Burden III vs. PIT: Burden is coming off a season-high in route rate (61%) and target share (18%). He and the Bears now face a Pittsburgh team that has given up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, per Kyle Dvorchak.

Darnell Mooney @ NO: With Cousins under center for the first 14 weeks of the 2024 season, Mooney earned a 23.5% adjusted target rate — even with Drake London commanding 29.5% of the looks, per Beckett Mesko. With London sidelined, a significant chunk of that volume is now available for Mooney in Week 12.

Tight End

Hunter Henry // patriots.com

✅ Start ‘Em

Hunter Henry @ CIN: Henry has fallen to TE19 on a per game basis and hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. But he gets his easiest matchup of the season this week against a Bengals defense allowing the most fantasy points to TEs by far — 4.6 PPG more than the 2nd-worst defense against TEs, including 12 TDs to the position, per Justin Boone.

Travis Kelce vs. IND: Kelce has the 2nd-most receiving yards among TDs this season, behind only Trey McBride. He has scored more than 12 fantasy points in five of his last six games, and 22+ points in two of his last three. He should stay hot against the Colts, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points on average to the TE position, per PFF’s Michelle Magdziuk.

Dallas Goedert @ DAL: Dallas has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy PPG to TEs. Plus, the Cowboys utilized two high with 57.6% of their defensive snaps in Week 1, and against two high, Goedert is 2nd on the team with a 22% target per route run rate and 1.69 yards per route run, per Derek Brown.

❌ Sit ‘Em

Jake Ferguson vs. PHI: Over his last four games since CeeDee Lamb returned to the field, Ferguson has just 16/95/3 receiving. His 15% target share in this span is a huge drop off from the front half of this season. Plus, the Eagles have been excellent against TEs all year (29.2 yards per game allowed — 2nd-fewest), per Graham Barfield.

Harold Fannin Jr. @ LV: “The Raiders have held opposing TEs to just 39.5 yards per game (5th-fewest). Fannin has earned at least 19% of the targets in five-straight games, but it’s just hard for him to project well in fantasy when Shedeur Sanders is projecting for just 155 passing yards this week.” — Barfield

T.J. Hockenson @ GB: Another one bites the dust thanks to Nine. In his five games with J.J. McCarthy, Hockenson has had just a 12.9% target share, 17 receiving yards per game, 0.68 yards per route run, and a 13.7% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and zero TE1 weekly finishes, per Derek Brown.

😴 Sleepers

Kyle Pitts @ NO: “Pitts has been underwhelming with just one TD on the year, but the absence of Drake London should increase his volume. The last time London missed a game, Pitts caught nine balls in Week 8 versus the Dolphins.” — Justin Boone

Noah Fant vs. NE: The Patriots are tied for 9th in fantasy points allowed to TEs, per Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton, and Fant should see an uptick in usage given Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension.

BEST BETS 💰

2025 Record: 17-15-1

Drake Maye // Robert F. Bukaty, AP Photo

🥇 Patriots OVER 29.5 team points (-115)

• “The Bengals are allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play, as well as a league-worst 33.6 points per game — dead last in the league by a wide margin. The Patriots should score at will, as do most Cincinnati opponents.” — FOX Sports’ Will Hill

🥈 Emeka Egbuka OVER 63.5 receiving yards (-110)

• The Rams deploy the 7th-highest rate of Cover 3 (37.1%), and Egbuka averages an elite 2.28 yards per route run against such coverage. L.A. also allows the 9th-most receiving yards per game (115.4) and the 12th-most YPRR (2.05) to receivers aligned out wide, per Fantasy Points’ Tom Brolley.

🥉 Jalen Hurts OVER 205.5 passing yards (-113)

• “The Cowboys have allowed QBs to clear this number in all but two games this season, and they rank 30th in defensive DVOA against the pass. This is the right matchup to get Hurts back on track.” — FTN Fantasy’s Marshall Gershon

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose.

POLL 📊

QUICK SLANTS 👀

📖 Read Matt Bowen of ESPN’s Ultimate Guide to the Fantasy Football Playoffs for tips on how to manage your roster ahead of your league’s postseason, including rostering multiple QBs, adding insurance backs, and more.

📖 Read Mark Morales-Smith of SI’s Week 12 Boom or Bust Candidates for names you might want to slide into your lineup if you’re a major underdog today, including Jameis Winston, Sean Tucker, and even Xavier Worthy.

🎙️Listen to J.J. Zachariason’s latest episode of Late-Round Perspectives with Fantasy Points’ Brian Drake, where the two talk about content in the fantasy football industry, mistakes drafters made in 2025, the Patriots backfield, and more.

📺 Watch Fantasy Football Experts Answer KEY Questions for Week 12 from Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown of FantasyPros:

TWEET OF THE DAY ✍️

Twitter tweet

Good luck this week.

See you Tuesday.

- Marcus