Welcome, artists & builders.

Today is all about the biggest challenges we face in the music industry, real or perceived. Let’s get into it.

Inside Issue #39

💡 The 39 biggest problems in music
🛠️ The current pre-sale system fails artists
🤔 Music’s 3 possible futures

Music’s Biggest Problems

Problems are opportunities and the music industry has plenty.

So, I asked 35,000+ people “what’s the biggest problem to solve in music?”.

Here are the most common answers (and how I view it):

1. Music has been devalued

2. Streaming/Spotify

3. Artists don’t know who their fans are

4. Oversaturation of music—too much noise

5. Lack of real artist development & investment

6. The industry prioritizes numbers over artistry

7. Everyone chasing virality instead of real growth

8. AI training on copyrighted material w/o permission

9. Payment rails for AI-generated derivative works

10. The music royalty blackbox

11. Stan culture & its toxicity

12. Platform dependence

13. Death of traditional A&R

14. The rising cost of touring

15. Nothing works

16. Pay structures that don’t reward artists equitably

17. Shrinking revenue support for middle-class artists

18. No standardized metadata creating a global data mess

19. Decline in music quality, songwriting & production craft

20. Too much gatekeeping

21. Too few gatekeepers (& not enough gates)

22. Algorithms discouraging exploration

23. Algorithms dictating success

24. No human curation

25. Too many middlemen

26. Too many platforms to navigate

27. Constant need for self-promotion

28. Lack of knowledge resources for artists

29. A misunderstanding of how to build real businesses

30. Misaligned incentives between artists, platforms, labels, and fans

31. Grassroots music venues closing, reducing opportunities for emerging talent

32. Overcomplexity & opacity block new entrants from creating or innovating

33. Lack of emphasis on storytelling, community, and connection

34. Lack of new models that meaningfully monetize fandom

35. Mental health challenges for artists and teams

36. No incentives for fans to go deeper

37. New artist discovery is broken

38. Erosion of music education

39. Streaming fraud

Some great ones here. Others I reject.

But here's the thing:

Every problem is an opportunity.

That’s what’s beautiful. We're never done. There will always be things to make better.

The music industry was left for dead 20 years ago & along came streaming to bring it back to new heights. Now that, the internet & more have caused a new set of problems that we now have the OPPORTUNITY to improve upon.

Each era brings a new set of challenges that feel impossible to solve—until someone does.

Almost every day I talk to a founder tackling these challenges, or an artist creating in new ways, or someone in the industry rethinking whats possible.

It’s inspiring.

Because we all know we’re in the midst of a major shift in music.

It’s up to the artists & builders solving these problems—and creating new opportunities we’ve yet to imagine—to shape a better future.

I promise you there’s far more good than bad.
Tomorrow will be better than today.
We just have to build it.

Just don’t forget about the fans

Almost no one mentioned the fan experience. And if history shows us anything, transformational shifts in music follow what’s best for the consumer—not the artist.

Most solutions that aim only to solve artist problems without also considering fan’s want are bound to fail.

The last decade pursued the laid-back listener, as that was the biggest opportunity. Now, the focus is the lean-in experience.

So, what do fans want?

More personalized experiences. To be rewarded. Recognized. To self-express.

They want interactivity.
Co-creation.
Authenticity.
Storytelling.

Connection to artists.
Connection to each other.

They want to be part of something.

The highest-leverage opportunities in music?

1. Creating the lean-in fan experience for discovery, connection and community—that is not siloed to a single artist.

2. Finally understanding artists are small businesses and delivering them the tools, knowledge & teams to run more sustainable careers.

Solve these, and solve many of the problems above.

- Rob

PS: Question for you – who are the artists & builders you see building this future? I’ll share the best in an upcoming newsletter.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. The current pre-sale system fails most artists & fans (and how Oasis & Lana Del Rey are blueprinting a new way), by Rob Sealy for IQ-Mag

2. Music’s 3 Futures - A Manifesto for an artist-centric music business, by Keith Jopling

3. 3 Lessons from Successful Campaigns, by Dylan Brewer / Fraudulent (the link was broken in the last edition, so I’m adding back here)

Welcome, artists & builders.

Happy Friday. Today is all about artist development. How it's changing, why traditional models are failing, and how we need to rethink the way we invest in and support artists.

Inside Issue #38

💡 Idea: Investing into artists
🦁 Guide: Lessons from 3 successful campaigns
🤔 Breakdown: UMG sues Tunecore for $500M

Investing Into Artists

The thing everyone gets wrong with "labels are just a bad loan" is that the deal is not just financial.

A good label provides:

→ Infrastructure
→ Project Mgmt
→ Connections
→ Marketing
→ Strategy
→ Promo
→ A&R
→ & more

In essence, they develop the artist. I’ve never seen a bank do that for its customers.

The problem is most labels aren't good labels.

Not anymore.

Because labels have, in fact, turned into banks.

→ Zero risk-taking
→ Zero conviction on artists
→ Pure cash flow projections

In many cases, they’ve completely abdicated artist development. Funneling billions into catalog acquisitions and hollowing out their audience & marketing teams at a time of peak profits, instead of doubling-down on meaningful artists with something to say.

Maybe that’s ok—they simply no longer serve this role.

But, we need new structures to invest into & develop the artists of the future.

Or we’ll get the art & artists we deserve.

Developing the Artists of the Future

We need new structures that take bets on interesting artists & have a modicum of patience. This should come from a more holistic view than just recorded - like live & merch - so that diverse, meaningful artist careers are incentivized, not just spray & pray tracks.

New label groups.
New deal structures.
More JVs.

And they better be built for how music moves today.

Always on. No gatekeepers. Hyper-niche. Bespoke. Heavy direct engagement & community-building. Building from the bottom up, not the top down.

Traditional label structures are not built for this.

You know who are?

Managers.

Artist development has increasingly shifted towards managers over the last 20 years. It’s time to supercharge a version of this role, so they can fully deliver.

Why?

• They’re the most aligned with artists.

• They’re central to all aspects of an artist’s career.

• They’re best suited for the always-on, community-focused workflow of today.

Managers should expand their capabilities—building out teams for digital marketing, fan engagement, and more—and directly funding artists when necessary.

Firebird is making this bet—buying stakes in management companies and providing infrastructure & international distribution. And look at the success Jungle’s manager is having in setting up his Verdigris Management like an artist services company with specialists in sync & other areas.

This is smart.

Labels’ roles are changing, and they should back these ventures.

Labels are Being Unbundled

There are more options than ever for funding, marketing, and distribution.

This creates an opportunity to rebundle these pieces into cohesive, bespoke strategies for artists—focused on long-term fanbase & career growth.

And it’s already happening.

Take Shaboozey.

After a failed major label deal, he launched his American Dogwood imprint with his managers & partnered with Empire for flexible distribution. With a small, dedicated team focused on building his unique world, they could stay nimble—adding external specialists like radio promoters as needed.

He now has the longest-running No. 1 song of the decade.

You no longer need $100k to make a record. Or $20k for a video. Or muscle to convince gatekeepers (because there are none).

But you do need a team with conviction, long-term vision, and the resources to turn you into a sustainable business—even if you never hit a billion streams.

Re-thinking How We Invest Into Artists

It’s always been odd to me how artist funding almost entirely comes from the recorded side of the business.

But that's just 1 revenue stream.

And it's not always the best indicator of an artist's real world 'value' or long-term potential. If we had systems & incentives to better invest into artists creating real fandom that isn't measured entirely in streams, we'd likely be in a better place.

If we’re moving (back) towards fandom & away from empty volume, our approach to development needs to change too.

Let’s optimize for career growth, not stream growth.

Let’s invest into new artists.
Not just old songs.

- Rob

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Building Sustainable AI Business Models for the New Music Industry, by Mike Pelczynski

2. Two Future Paths for the Vinyl Revival, by Tatiana Cirisano

3. 3 Lessons from Successful Campaigns, by Dylan Brewer / Fraudulent

WHAT YOU MISSED

🚀 Fundraising

→ Duetti raises $114M to expand catalog advances & flexible financial solutions for independent artists (More) | Trolley secures $23M in Series B funding to accelerate global payouts for creators (More)

→ Grouped raise $2.5M for membership-based artist communities (More) | Levellr raise $1.75M to expand community management tools, appoints new charman (More)

→ [untitled] raises Series A led by a16z to revolutionize music collaboration (More) | → Pibox raises $1.2M for audio/video collaboration (More) | Forte secures $320k to streamline collaborative audio production (More)

🤝 Oh, That’s Helpful

→ Laylo launches ad platform (More) | Medallion introduces fan listening profiles (More) | Bandsintown add Ticket Presale functionality (More)

→ Marketing platform un:hurd partners with Fiverr to create a music industry network of designers, videographers & more (More)

→ Spotify and Apple Music roll out ‘Share to TikTok’ feature, enabling users to link directly to songs (More)

🎶 Industry Biz & Numbers

→ UMG sues Tunecore & Believe for $500M over alleged copyright infringement, calling the $20/year all-you-can-eat distro model into question (More)

→ Spotify is on track for its first profitable year ever, projecting ~$1.5B in income for 2024. Q3 earnings beat expectations (Subscribers +12%, MAUs +11%, Premium Revenue +24%) (More)

→ Live Nation sreports strong earnings after the "Most Active Summer Concert Season Ever," though Q3 revenue is down 6% YoY (More) | Sony Music posts double-digit Q3 revenue growth, driven by streaming & licensing (More) | Block scales back Tidal investment (More)

That’s it for this week. Til next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’m diving into the shift towards a direct-to-fan music industry.

Inside Issue #37

💡 Ideas: Creating better d2c artist brands
⚒️ Tools: Stop asking your fans to pre-save
🗞️ Plus: State of music tech fundraising & more

Going Direct

Artists are the worst direct-to-consumer brands on the internet.

Sorry, but it’s true.

→ They know nothing about their fans
→ Drive attention to other people's platforms
→ Must compete to reach their own followers every single time

No other business would operate this way.

It's madness.

And listen – it’s not (all) their fault.

Platforms hoard data, partners don’t share their incentives & the industry chases short-term wins instead of building long-term artist businesses.

But artists are waking up.

Traditional models that rely heavily on 3rd-party platforms & algorithms are no longer sufficient for artists who want to build resilient & profitable careers.

Just ask James Blake. Or Dermot Kennedy. Or James Vincent McMorrow.

Each spoke out last week rejecting the idea that platforms, labels or anyone else should hold the keys to their audience.

Posts from Kennedy, McMorrow & Blake

These artists join a growing movement that sees the future clearly:

We must stop outsourcing fan relationships & put artists at the center of their own ecosystems.

Artists should be the ultimate direct-to-fan brands.

They should know everything about their fan’s history & interactions with them.

Why they love them
What's their favorite song
What shows they've been to
What merch they’ve bought
The nostalgia they've built up together

And they should deliver personalized value & experiences based on it.

This shouldn’t be scattered amongst 50 different platforms that give you a partial view or sell it back to you in the form of ads, but held directly with the artist.

Everything should come through your front door.

Want a ticket?
Want the LP?
Want full access?
Want to hear it first?
Want the best experience?

You better come through us — directly.

For Oasis’s US tour sale last week, it was nearly impossible to get a ticket without coming through Oasis’s front door (powered by Openstage). 

1. Sign-up with Oasis

2. Prove you’re a fan

3. Win their fandom-weighted lottery

4. Get a code matched to your fan ID

5. Get access to the pre-sale on Ticketmaster

The vast majority of tickets were sold this way. 

The band harnessed this moment into actual relationships by making them come through their front-door — rewarding fandom & gaining millions of fan data points in the process.

This is how you build your ecosystem.

Rather than constantly vying for attention on rented channels, re-advertising & hoping to break through the attention gauntlet over & over again, artists with owned channels can easily reach, engage & sell to their audience.

No algorithm necessary.

This sounds hard.

But it's not.

With the right tools & technology - and more importantly the right mindset & north star metrics - this is a far easier (and much more reliable) way to grow a sustainable artist career.

It's the way off the hamster wheel.

This doesn't mean abandoning platforms—it means no longer depending on them.

→ Use rented channels for reach
→ Use that reach to grow your owned channels
→ Superserve fans in those owned channels

Repeat.

This isn’t rocket science—it’s just good business.

It's time for artists to take control, so they can build stronger, more sustainable businesses.

It’s time to go direct.

— Rob

PS: I’ll do a deep dive on the Oasis fan ticketing project in a future edition. Reach out if you’re interested in setting up something similar.

PPS: See an example for non-Oasis-sized artists to welcome fans ‘through their front door’ below.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Things This Week

1. A GPU organ that plays music acoustically by controlling the RPM of each fan (this is very cool).

2. Green Day release ‘Dookie Demastered’: Album re-exploded onto obscure, obsolete & inconvenient formats.

3. Vérité makes her archive available to Buy or Steal

💁 GOOD ADVICE

Bring Fans Through Your Front Door

Stop asking fans to pre-save your music.

→ It's boring
→ They don't care
→ They don't even know what it does

This is a terrible fan experience.

Do this instead:

→ Offer them a 1st listen
→ Use a pre-save + email sign-up to unlock it
→ Immediately let them listen, comment & share

Now you've actually given them something.

You’ve brought them through your front door, controlled the context, and promoted your music.

⚒️ Tribly just productized this idea - where you gate immediate access to songs, previews or videos with pre-saves and emails. It creates shareable, micro-experiences. Pretty cool.

*Company is in beta & product is free for now.

---

Thanks for reading. Til next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, I’m diving into streaming’s broken payout model. How it's used to steal billions from artists, how we can fix it & the real reason we haven’t yet.

Let’s go.

Stealing from Artists

Last week, it came out that a musician exploited streaming's broken model for $10 million—and is now being charged with streaming fraud.

But here’s the thing to understand:

This money was stolen from artists, not streaming platforms.

And this is just a drop in the bucket. 10% of streams are frauds. That’s $1.93 billion per year going to stream farmers instead of artists.

It’s completely broken.

How does this work? Is there a better way? And why does streaming keep using this model?

Well, it’s all about incentives.

Let me explain.

We get what we ask for.

Streaming’s pro-rata payout model is ripe for fraud.

• $10.99/mo to stream all you want

• All streams & money go into 1 pot

• Songs get paid based on their stream-share

Meaning you can pay yourself out more in royalties than it costs to generate them. Absurd.

Music’s primary business model encourages everything from money-laundering, arbitrage & stream bot armies.

Now AI makes the problem harder.

Here’s how Michael Smith conspired with the CEO of generative AI music company Boomy to exploit this flawed model.

1. He created 100,000+ songs with AI

2. Released them under fake artist names

3. Created 10,000+ fake family-plan accounts

4. Then streamed his songs billions of time with bots

Voila! — $10 million in royalties.

Bonus: an indictment from US federal prosecutors.

Change the incentives, change the outcomes.

We need to move from pro-rata to fan-powered royalties. AKA user-centric.

Instead of all your streams going into 1 bucket (where someone with bots spinning 24/7 can outweigh yours), your $10.99 goes to the share of songs you listen to each month.

Why?

→ Disincentivize Fraud: The math won’t work. If the maximum your streams pay out is 70% of your own subscription fee (the payout share), you can’t recover it by streaming your owned tracks. It kills this fraud overnight.

→ Incentivize Fandom: If a small number of people stream you a high share of their total, you’ll earn real money. Scale is no longer the only measure. Depth enters the equation.

People often say user-centric won’t drastically change who gets paid. They’re missing the point.

It’s all about incentives.
They drive everything.

Let’s finally get some good ones.

The real reason streaming hasn’t changed?

Streamers aren't incentivized to change it.

They benefit from the fraud:

→ More subs
→ More metrics
→ More revenue

And you need everyone on board.

So, it must come from the major labels.

But when they throw their weight around for change, they want evidence it will direct a higher share of the pie to them. This is why you get "artist-centric", not user-centric.

It's better, but it's not best.

We keep putting band-aids on bullet wounds with poorly targeted half-measures that harm indie artists more than anyone.

Enough with amateur-hour.

It’s time for a real payout system we can trust, where we’re no longer guessing which artists, fans & streams are real.

Both artists and fans deserve it.

Let’s get it done.

- Rob

PS: Don’t say I did’t warn you. This is from issue #10 “Streaming’s Model is Broken” in May of 2023.

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, I’m diving into a massive concert event that’s unlike anything we’ve seen before — and shows that unique live experience is king.

Inside Issue #35

• Building a new live experience

• Spotify’s new Countdown Pages

• What goes into a mgmt contract

Building a World

Live Nation & Munich built a $130m custom, pop-up stadium for Adele's concert series this month and it's wild.

She'll play 10 shows over 30 days in 'Adele Arena', hosting over 750,000 fans to become the biggest concert engagement ever.

Then they’ll tear it all down.

The sheer magnitude of this is something I couldn’t ignore, signaling:

• the dichotomy between large-scale events & the struggles of grassroots venues,

• fan’s desire for unique experiences,

• and where the real money is in music.

Here’s How Adele Arena is Going Down:

The completely Adele-themed venue holds 80,000 fans and hosts "Adele World" - a themed outdoor environment where fans can enter early & stay late.

It includes:

→ A ferris wheel
→ Farmers Market
→ Bavarian beer garden
→ Re-created English pub
→ A series of branded wine bars
→ 2nd stage for more live entertainment

Plus, a massive 721x98 foot video wall that curls behind the stage & is longer than 2 football fields!

It’s the largest LED screen ever.

Video of Night 1

And it's going to absolutely print money.

I project the shows will gross well over $228m.

In fact, this 10 show run will earn more money than her lifetime total of streams.

10 shows in 1 city = ~$228mm
44 billion streams = ~$220mm

The music industry keeps trying to figure out how to monetize superfans. Turns out live does a pretty damn good job of it.

Streaming creates fans.
Experience monetizes them.

We're going to start seeing more of this.

→ Multiple nights in one centralized location
→ Huge theatrics and world-building
→ Massive, massive profits

The Sphere is already hosting 20-40 night residencies. And how many people could Beyonce bring to a Cowboy Carter rodeo in Texas?

They won’t all be $100m pop-ups, but purpose-built experiences of all sizes that create had-to-be-there moments.

The demand for unique, live experiences is unquenchable.

The scarcer, the better.

Maybe we'll see cities bidding on these residencies.

The City of Munich is expecting to generate $612m in ancillary revenue from Adele’s series.

A huge win for the city.

MY HOPE: Some of the $840m in total revenue generation finds its way back to smaller venues, emerging artists & the arts in Munich.

Then, it's a big W for everyone.

- Rob

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Live Music Needs Innovation, by Jesse Kirshbaum

2. Why I Finally Quit Spotify, by Kyle Chayka at The New Yorker

3. The State of A&R, by John Strohm

I also found this X thread from Brian Zisook on what goes into a mgmt contract succinct & helpful for artists.

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, we’re diving into one of the best recent examples of fan-building in music & what we can learn from it. Let’s take a look.

Inside Issue #33

💡 Idea: How to build a loyal AF fanbase
 🛠️ Tools: Memberships built for artists
🤔 Breakdown: The majors sue Suno & Udio

How to Build a Loyal Fanbase

Fred Again is the model for music’s future.

He’s a masterclass in building fandom, redefining what fan interactivity & involvement look like.

• Direct fan relationships

• Community over everything

• More of a friend-dom than a fandom

Here are all the things Fred is doing right - and what we can learn:

8 Lessons on How to Build a Loyal AF Fanbase

1. BUILD DIRECT RELATIONSHIPS

Fred has focused on direct fan engagement from day 1, prioritizing real-time, personal interactions & lean-in locations over mass broadcast channels.

→ Discord & Reddit communities
→ Exclusive Whatsapp chats
→ 1:1 direct messaging

The results may appear smaller at first, but it creates genuine community, a true understanding of your fans, and the ability to activate them in real-time.

Everything builds on this foundation.

It’s not just about big numbers.
It’s about deep interactions.

2. EMBRACE AUTHENTICITY

He’s pouring beers behind the bar & attending quiz night with fans. His music samples from everyday moments creating a collaborative diary.

→ self-shot videos
→ voice memos from friends
→ sharing facetimes with collaborators

There is no pretense. It’s never about being slick. Or coming across as bigger, better & more famous than you.

You're all along for the ride.

3: COMMUNITY COMES FIRST

For the launch of Actual Life 3, Fred asked the most engaged fans in his Discord to host 18 launch parties across the globe.

→ Set up events
→ Spread the word
→ Listen to the album 1 day early

Superfans became the central nodes, rallying the community to connect more deeply in-person with Fred as the context.

First, feed the community.
Then, the masses.

4. REWARD FANDOM

Before his Los Angeles coliseum show, Fred hosted a secret listening party for 150 fans he found & invited who went to his first LA show in 2021.

→ He greeted each personally,
→ handed out mugs of tea,
→ & previewed new songs.

All 2 days before his first arena show in front of 77,000.

Show fans they're seen.
Show them they're valued.

5. GET FANS INVOLVED

Fred is constantly including fans in his process, asking for input & cultivating community-generated content.

→ Voting on which tracks to release
→ Asking fans to suggest local venues
→ Video recaps from the dancefloor
→ Co-creating material

Don’t serve fans “content”.
Make them part of the journey.

6. CREATE MAGICAL MOMENTS

Fred is the king of pop-up shows.

→ No roll-out
→ No pre-hype
→ Fans find out first

Every event feels like you’re lucky to be there. You had to be in the know. It’s alive. It’s ephemeral. Fans band together on Discord & Reddit, creating guides to help each other get into the next one.

They’re marketing through magic. Through fomo. By understanding that every event or sale isn’t about maximizing profits, but investing in your lore.

What's crazy?

He's taking the pop-up show mentality to arena tours & selling them out on 3-day notice with a $0 ad budget. These decisions are backed by direct fan data, not vanity metrics like monthly listeners.

Know your fans, know your worth.
The best marketing is from the ground up.

7. MAKE FANS A MAIN CHARACTER

When a fan accidentally paused Fred’s decks during his now iconic Boiler Room set, he simply flashed a smile, embraced him & it became the most memorable moment of the now viral set.

Later, Fred invited this fan to accept his Best Live Act award by DJ Mag. He took this fan’s worst moment & made it his best.

Lift your fans up.
Everyone’s in it together.

8. BE A CONNECTOR

Fred finds ways to bring people together around his art.

Like leading a massive community bike ride across London to celebrate the release of Actual Life 3. Or facilitating a fan’s marriage proposal in the middle of his set.

What people want more than anything else is human connection.

This is the dopamine Fred delivers.

There Is No Formula

No rinse and repeat. But there are lessons to learn.

1. Create direct fan relationships

2. Embrace authenticity

3. Put community first

4. Reward your fans

5. Encourage participation

6. Create magical moments

7. Make fans a main character

8. Bring people together

Community building may be the most important skill you can have today.

And when done right, community can be the best fuel for momentum & curting through. Your magical moments go viral. The word-of-mouth is sticky. You’ve created a space others want to enter.

If you lean all the way in, your reach will grow.

And it will last.

- Rob

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Music is decentralizing, by MusicBen

2. Did Charli XCX go mainstream, or did the mainstream go niche?, by Tatiana Cirisano at Midia

3. Pop Music: The TV dinner of our cultural diet, by Adam Singer

🧰 NEW TOOLS

Memberships Built for Artists

Bonfire lets artists build custom fan experiences in your own branding, on your own domain, and own all the data.

They’re introducing Season Passes: Memberships that link all the products, access & events from your campaigns into one cohesive offering.

Use them to drive early purchases, offer more value & build momentum through launch.

Like memberships..but built for artists:

1. Time-bound: Yes, an end date.

2. Clear Value: Tied to albums, tickets & things fans already love.

3. Browser-based: Native audio, livestreams & feeds without a new app.

4. Fully Customizable: Your branding, your URL.

5. Interoperable: Power fan experiences on 3rd party apps.

Offer an album pass that unlocks vinyl, early listening, exclusive products, listening parties & more.

Whey we like it: Unlike endless subscriptions with unclear value, this lets you monetize & rally fans by bundling what’s in your marketing plan.

⏲️ Finally, memberships built for the way artists work.

Welcome, artists & builders.

On my MusicBiz panel, I was asked “How will streaming change now that growth is slowing in the West?” Here’s my answer…

Inside Issue #33

💡 Idea: Streaming’s new era
 🛠️ Tools: The largest music resource directory
🤔 Breakdown: Sony calls to end free streaming

Streaming’s New Era

All we’ve known so far has been about growth.

→ One low price.
→ All the songs in the world.
→ Same experience for everyone.

There was no concern about fandom or segmentation or squeezing out every dollar. All that mattered was getting as many people in the system as possible.

And that worked pretty damn well.

We’re up to over 2B global users & 740M paying subscribers.

But, times have changed.

Yes, subscriber growth is slowing in the west. In the US, it’s down from 29% in 2019 to under 6% in 2023.

Falling steadily each year:

2019: 28.8%
2020: 25.0%
2021: 11.3%
2022: 9.1%
2023: 5.7%

We’re closer to the ceiling than the floor in the West — and we're about to see an entirely different version of streaming.

Because it's time to get profitable.

Here's what that looks like:

5 KEY CHANGES COMING FOR STREAMING

Some of it’s already here…

1. PRICE HIKES: After 12 years at $9.99, every streamer raised prices last year. More are coming for 2024. Get used to it.

2. A STRONGER PUSH TO MOVE FREE USERS TO PAID: A Spotify premium user was worth 13x a free one in Q1, 2024. They just quietly paywalled lyrics & Sony just called for an end to free music streaming altogether..

My thoughts:

→ No more than 3 months free
→ Very limited access + more hooks to upgrade
→ Then, require ~$4/mo for ad-supported

If people really want to get around paying, they'll find a way. But, they were never going to pay anyway.

3. NO MORE ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL: Previous tiers offered the same experience at lower prices to get more people in (Family, Duo, Student).

New ones aim to drive revenue & segment fans:

→ Free
→ Music-only
→ Audiobooks-only
→ Music + Audiobooks
→ Music Pro add-on (fka supremium, rumored)

Expect direct artist subscriptions soon. Likely as cross-platform add-ons offering exclusive content & access.

4. CHASING NEW TYPES OF REVENUE: Spotify’s going hard after monetizing listener attention by selling it back to artists & labels desperate for reliable ways to reach audiences with tools like Marquee & Showcase.

They call it a 2-sided marketplace:

→ Artists become the customer
→ Listeners become the product

Sound familiar?

Better ideas will pursue interactivity, creation & fandom. But, let’s see who can pull it off.

5. PENNY-PINCHING: We’re seeing the pinch as Spotify looks to make the model viable. First, they traded reduced royalties for increased exposure with Discovery Mode. Now, they’re forcing reduced royalties by re-classifying Premium tiers as ‘bundles’.

Anything to make the margins work, right?

Right?

This is the beginning of a new streaming era

After years of subscriber growth at all costs, it's time to get profitable.

→ Belts are tightening.
→ Shivs are out.
→ Enshittification may be under way.

One thing is for sure: the model is changing.

Not all of these are bad. In fact, I’d pursue some if I ran Spotify. But it’s up to streamers to not only extract more value, but deliver it.

Both to fans and artists.

I hope they do.

- Rob

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Hot takes on the Live Nation Anti-Trust Lawsuit

2. Spotify Hates Albums. Here’s How to Fix That.

3. A public reply to Sony’s 30-day notice to AI companies

🧰 NEW TOOLS

ROSTR Launches Stack

Stack by ROSTR

Stack is the largest directory of music industry resources, featuring 3,000+ hand-picked tools, resources & tips.

Each Stack is a curated list of top recommendations from music industry experts.

It covers 125+ categories, including:

- Distributors
- Merch providers
- Artist & label services
- Conferences
- Newsletters
- Software
- Curators
- Podcasts
- Agencies
- Books
- & more

Build your own Stack by saving your faves.

Here’s 3 of my favorites:

1. Christine Osazuwa’s Guide to Getting a Job in Music

2. Top 10 Tech Solutions to Maximize Your Music Rights & Royalties

3. 👋 Rob Abelow’s Guide to Your Direct to Fan Business 

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, I’ll go over the difference between Artist-Owned & Rented Channels, and how you should use them in your growth strategy. Let’s go.

Inside Issue #32

• 💡 Stop renting, start owning

• 🦁 1st full generative music video

• 🗞️ UMG + TikTok makeup & more

Stop Renting, Start Owning

Artists need to stop renting & start owning their channels.

Own your context.
Own your audience.
Own your relationships.

Here’s my framework for building a sustainable audience with owned channels.

Owned vs. Rented Channels

There are 2 types of channels:

1. Rented Channels = discovery & growth

2. Owned Channels = nurturing & monetization

Both are important.

But they must be used in balance…

Rented Channels

They’re your top of funnel.

• Streaming (Spotify, Apple)

• Social (TikTok, IG, FB, X)

• Video (Youtube, Twitch)

They offer mass scale & virality to reach a wide audience.

But, the platform owns the relationships. Your songs are just “content”, you control nothing & you’re always competing for eyeballs (even from your own followers).

Owned Channels

They’re for nurturing & monetizing.

• Email

• SMS

• Website

• Pre-Sales

• Storefront

• *Community

• *Membership

You control the data, distribution & context, establishing a direct relationship with fans. Basically, you’re the platform.

But, they lack immediate scale & shareability.

Why Should Artists Own Their Channels?

As the discovery & reach of rented platforms becomes less & less reliable, the value of building owned channels becomes more crucial.

Attention is fractured & capturing 10 seconds today guarantees none tomorrow because you have no control, and it’s not about you, it’s about the "content".

The algorithm is the gatekeeper now.

If you want to sustain attention, guarantee reach & compound your wins, you must spend the time & energy in building algorithm-free Owned Channels.

There is no better marketing plan than knowing your fans.

How To Think About Your Channels

1) Don’t leave Rented Channels.

Just understand them for what they are: Advertising. You still need discovery & reach. Use them for that, but don’t build your home on rented land.

2) Your goal is to move everyone you can from Rented to Owned.

Every time you peak through the noise, bring that person back to owned land. Get great at converting down your funnel. If fans want it first, direct, exclusively or premium, they need to join.

Turn followers into fans.

Tools → OpenStage, Laylo, Symphony, Tribly

3) Owned Channels take longer to build, but have far greater value.

It may have lower conversion. The numbers may feel small at first. But the value & intent in Owned Channels is far larger. Plus, your wins compound.

An email is worth 1,000 streams.

4) Overdeliver in Owned Channels.

These fans opted in. You’re not just collecting names. Give them more than “buy my album”. Deepen relationships, personalize offerings & park your premium experiences here.

You win by overdelivering.

5) Link your Owned ecosystem together.

Data from Social → Pre-Saves → Link-in-bio → Signups → CRM → Messaging → Store → Pre-Sales should all sit in one place with that fan’s identity tied to it.

OpenStage is great for this.

Artists that cultivate the best owned land will win.

They will sustain.
They will be self-sufficient.
They will compound their wins.
They will build their own worlds.

This is the advantage of owned channels.

It’s how you build a lasting artist business.

Stop renting.
Start owning.

- Rob

PS: Owned channels that also have user-habit & discoverability are music’s holy grail.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. 5 Lessons on Superfans from IMS Ibiza 2024, via Billboard

2. Today’s music industry is becoming two, by Mark Mulligan at Midia

3. Phish’s Trey Anastasio talks about taking over the Sphere, and the role of fans and community in everything they do.

⚒️ IN THE WILD

A Fully Generative Music Video

The 1st commercial music video made with OpenAI Sora.

It's for Washed Out's new track "The Hardest Part", and it's 4 full minutes of completely generative text-to-video.

→ 700 Sora generations
→ 55 selected clips
→ Edited in premiere

Director Paul Trillo aimed to explore all the possible outcomes of a couple’s life across various locations only through text prompts.

Backlash: The video has received heavy backlash for its use of generative AI & in particular Sora - which many believe is trained on unlicensed work. Others see it as an inevitable step forward.

A limited number of directors have been given beta access to Sora.

👀 Watch the full video here

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, I’m clearing the air on a common misconception about the rates platforms pay per stream. Don’t shoot me, I’m just bringing facts. Plus, new tools.

Inside Issue #31

• 💡 Why streams pay what they pay

• ⚒️ An AI co-manager

• 🗞️ Spotify’s new music-only tier + more

Why Streams Pay What They Pay

"Tidal and Apple Music pay more than Spotify"

No.

This is a common misunderstanding.

What you think is a dunk on Spotify is actually a flex for them.

These platforms all have the same basic payout setup, it's just that Spotify listeners are SO MUCH MORE ENGAGED that it drives the per stream rate down.

This is mostly a good thing.

They all do ~70% of subscription revenue split pro-rata with all songs*, and they all essentially have the same subscription fees ($10.99/mo US premium).

So, why the difference?

The main factors that affect payouts:

1. Where You Listen: A subscriber in India pays less than an American one, so a US stream pays more than one in India. Spotify is growing faster than global competitors in emerging markets, which tends to bring down the per stream rate.

2. What Plan You Have: Spotify allows free users, plus has bundles like Duo & Family6 which really bring down the per stream rate. Apple is premium only, but also have bundles. They all do.

Family plan streams pay similar to ad-supported streams, but there’s many more of them - so it’s the heaviest weight pulling the average down.

Spotify payout rate by plan (my label, Sept 2023)

But, Rob...even Spotify premium in the US is lower than Apple - what's going on?

This is where #3 comes in.

3. How Much People Stream: Platforms don't decide per stream rates. They simply pay it out pro-rata. Since they all have the same basic fees & structure, the level of engagement significantly affects the rate.

Spotify listeners stream far more than other platforms.

This brings the per stream rate down.

It's a flex, not a knock.

And listen - I get it.

The system is wildly broken & feels unfair, but it's important to actually understand what you're talking about when pushing for change or improvement.

The main culprit here is pro-rata.

We should be using fan-centric.
We should have higher subscription fees.
We should connect artists more directly to fans.
We should provide more ways for artists to monetize.

Because here’s the thing:

This passive consumption game only works at scale.

We need to focus on new models that increase fandom, connection & music's value.

We need to value artists.
Not just "content".

⚒️ NEW TOOLS

Your AI Co-Manager

Co-Manager is a new AI music career assistant offering personalized guidance based on your streaming data & expert knowledge.

And it all sits within Venice’s distribution dashboard.

Co-Manager can:

• Create a pitch

• Plan a release strategy

• Devise a paid ad campaign

• Identify playlist curators to target

• Refresh your bio on Spotify + socials

• Give you last week’s follower growth

• Provide tips to grow your Youtube channel

• Recall ISRC codes, artist IDs & other metadata

Conversational recall via OpenAI & tailored best practices for artists without dedicated teams.

Why we like it: There’s millions of artists who can easily create & distribute, but don’t know what to do next. Maybe assistive AI tools can democratize knowledge — at least on the basics. They will work best within your data & action-taking ecosystem.

🤖 Co-Manager just launched in beta to Venice pro customers.

4 more assistive tools

1. Symphony OS → Fanbase growth on autopilot.

2. Un:Hurd → Tailored marketing campaigns for your first $250.

3. Catapult → Self-service promo platform for indies.

4. United Masters Blueprint → A personal coach in your pocket

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today, we’ll open up music’s 2023 report cards & look beyond the surface numbers to identify some major shifts in where music’s going. Oh, and lots of charts.

Inside Issue #30

• 💡 3 big takeaways for music’s future

• 📊 How the price of music has changed

Music’s 2023 Report Card

3 of music’s biggest 2023 reports recently dropped:

1. RIAA US Music Report

2. Luminate Global Report

3. IFPI Global State of the Industry

I went deep on each, cross-referencing & compiling with multi-year data.

So, how’d we do?

• Global recorded music grew 10.2% to a record $28B,

• US recorded music grew 7.7% to a record $17.1B, and

• Streaming remains dominant.

But, if you look deeper, there are major shifts happening.

I’ll focus on 3:

1. Passive Streaming is Maxing Out

Paid subscriptions in the US reached 97 million, but growth keeps slowing.

Passive consumption has been pushed to its brink.

Music needs new forms of growth to maintain the last decade’s trajectory. It will come from fandom, interactivity & creation itself.

2. Physical Music’s Resurgence is a Signal

Physical sales are growing at a faster rate than streaming in the US & globally.

In fact, the 5-year growth rate of US vinyl revenue is 182% to streaming’s 62%.

Almost half of global physical sales came from Asia, who are steps ahead in nurturing & tapping fandom (cue UMG launching a JV with HYBE to “implement the K-Pop methodology” in the US this week).

Fans are showing us they want more than streaming.

Something connective, immersive & collectible that's a deeper experience in the artist's world.

I believe the door is wide open for new formats.

3. Direct to Fan is Becoming a Massive Opportunity

Direct to Fan is the fastest growing form of music consumption in the US.

→ Up 27.8% from 2022
→ Direct vinyl is up even more at 38%

A direct artist-fan relationship is more important than ever as we drown out to 120k+ tracks per day & an endless, algo-driven content feed.

→ Consumption is increasingly fragmented
→ Reach is increasingly unreliable

Knowing your fans is now a superpower.

Takeaways

1. Streaming is maxing out
2. The time is ripe for new formats
3. Direct fan relationships are the new gold

You can already see major responses to these shifts, in a focus on superfans, a search for new monetization models, streaming price bumps, and majors looking to box out the encroaching long-tail.

Music's entering a new era.

It’s the 1st year of music’s next decade.

Get on board.

PS: One more bonus trend below ↓

The Price of Music

The average vinyl LP costs $6.35 more than 7 years ago, up 26%.

2017: $24.90
2023: $31.25

Up 26%

But, a streaming sub is only up 10% since 2011.

2011: $9.99
2023: $10.99

It’s nice to have price control.

7-Year growth for US vinyl records:

Avg Unit Price: $24.90 → $31.30 (+26%)
Total Units Sold: 15.6m → 43.2m (+177%)
Total Revenue: $389m → $1.4b (+248%)

Sell. Those. Records.

That’s it for this week. Back to tools & case studies again soon. Let me know if you’re missing those.

— Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Today I’m diving into the mindset shift happening around the music business, and how that’s even more important than the tools.

Inside Issue #29

• 💡 Music’s mindset shift

• 📊 Physical sales outgrowing streaming

Reject the Default Setting

On Thursday, James Blake helped launch an app called Vault, where you can pay $5/month for unreleased tacks & chat.

People took issue with the roll-out, as Blake slammed streaming & labels, then billed this as a solution, before launching something that resembles Patreon or Bandcamp subscriptions.

Let’s talk about it.

Is Vault revolutionary? No.

But that’s beside the point.

The real shift we're seeing is in mindset:

→ Music has value
→ Artists should own fan relationships
→ We need to stop playing the platform's game

That's what matters.

I welcome his voice to the movement.

And listen...

Maybe it doesn't take revolutionary tech.
Maybe it's just in how we use the tools.

Maybe it's how we decide to play the game.

Tools & models like this have existed, but they've been under-utilized in music. Moved to the fringes.

But, this is changing.

In just the last 2 weeks:

→ James Blake dropped Vault
→ JVKE dropped his fvm subscription
→ Nicki Minaj dropped the Gag City fan app
→ Avenged Sevenfold dropped Season Pass

All join a growing wave.

Artists are going direct & creating their own channels.

This is the future, regardless of the tech that gets us there.

It's a mindset.
It's a mission.
It's a rejection of music's default setting.

We need more of this - however it looks: New models, new experiments, new experiences.

Maybe this ain’t it, but let’s keep building.

Because the reality is we DO need a better Bandcamp & we DO need Patreon-like apps centered on music. And many other solutions.

There will be no 'one-size-fits-all' - and that's sort of the point.

But we must reject the default setting.

And start playing your own game.
Become your own platform.

— Rob

PS: Blake replied to my tweet of this rant:

Blake’s reply to my tweet of this rant

Artists should be able to choose where, how & when they release their music. Consciousness upgrade incoming.

📊 IN NUMBERS

Physical album sales grew faster than streaming globally in 2023.

Streaming: +10.4%
Physical: +13.4%

Fandom is rearing its head everywhere.

More from IFPI’s 2023 Global Music Report

That’s it for this week. Back to my regular format next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’ll cover some of the new startups being built by artists, among other things.

Inside Issue #28

• 💡 The artists building music’s future

• 🦁 The ultimate band loyalty program

• 📊 Advice: Opting out

• 📺️ Spotify adds music videos & more

Artists as Founders

Music’s future should be built by artists.

I’ve recently been inspired in conversation with artist-founders, almost all of which started by trying to solving their own problems, with a genuine mission to create a better music ecosystem.

They've lived the problems.
They deeply understand them.

And they can build us something better.

Here's 10 artist-founders helping to shape music’s future:

10 Artist-Founders Building Music’s Future

The common themes I see in artist-founded startups are a focus on artist-fan connection, creativity, collaboration, community, financial transparency & ethical frameworks.

All things we need more of.

Let’s bet on the artists.

— Rob

More on one of these experiments below.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Is Generative Music Really the Next Napster? by AudioShake’s Jessica Powell

2. The Final Word on Vice, or ‘why we should make products worth paying for’

3. Where Did TikTok Come From, by Ted Gioia

🦁 IN THE WILD

A Band Loyalty Program

Avenged Sevenfold’s Season Pass is a loyalty program that transforms every fan interaction into points for exclusive rewards.

It uses a mesh of integrations to capture fan data:

🎧️ Streaming → Opt-in by syncing stream account
👕 Buying Merch → NFC tags linked to NFT receipts
💿 Collecting Vinyl → NFC stickers to NFT receipts
🤘 Going to Shows → Digital stubs via Ticketmaster

No easy feat.

Everything is scannable, traceable & ownable back into a fan’s wallet, where it unlocks points you can trade for discounts, experiences or even free tickets.

Why We Like It: Typically, most of these fan interactions remain unknown to artists. This puts artists at the center of experience, nurturing a deeper artist-fan relationship.

🔮 Is this what an open future could look like for artists?

📊 ADVICE

Twitter tweet

Spotify Adds Music Videos

Spotify Music Videos launched in beta with a limited catalog to premium users in 11 countries (not yet to the US).

How it works:

1. Supported tracks have a toggle button on the Now Playing screen.

2. Just hit 'Switch to Video' while listening to a track.

3. Tapping it restarts the song in the new mode.

While Youtube & Apple Music have both audio & video, this is the cleanest for switching back & forth.

And It Adds to Spotify’s Growing Video Strategy: 

Clips
Canvas
Video Podcasts.

Now full-on music videos.

Thanks for reading. Til next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Are music’s passive days over? Today I’ll dive into some trends towards interactivity & the opportunity it presents for music.

Inside Issue #27

• 💡 Music’s interactive opportunity

• 🥊 Play with your music

• 📊 Indie music market share

• 🗞️ Warner’s superfan app, getting your first 20k monthly listeners & more

Music’s Pie is Too Small

Growth is stunted because it’s too passive. We’ve barely surpassed 1999’s numbers, while video games continue to skyrocket.

Even as streaming approaches 1 billion global subscribers, recorded music makes $157 billion less than video games each year.

• Video games have outgrown music 42x since 1999

• Earning $1.3 TRILLION more over that time

Music must become more interactive, dynamic & social to grow the pie.

Music Has Whales

The live concert business delivers on this - and it’s booming. It’s immersive & connective, which is why we’re willing to pay so much for it.

Even 3.5x all the music in the world for a single ticket.

But streaming?

It’s too passive. Too diluted. Too disconnected. We need layers on top that deliver more engaging experiences.

Think about this:

• Superfans spent 13% less time listening last year (^Midia)

• and U.S. Gen Z spent 11% less money on streaming (*Luminate)

So, where are they putting that time & money?

Creating. 
Interacting. 
Making. 
Doing.

Superfans spent 42% more time creating last year than in 2022.^

Music's Biggest & Youngest Fans Want Interactivity

They want more than personalized content in isolated little siloes.

They want to be connected.
They want to be involved.
They want to create!

And while people view music consumption as free, they’ll pay to play with it.

This is why Beatport sells ever-more downloads each year - because they’re used to create, not consume.

Interactivity Is Getting Easier

Just this week, Youtube launched a tool to play with any music video & Audiomack launched a feature to play with any song.

→ TikTok is adding creation tools
→ BandLab is empowering mobile production
→ Stationhead is fostering social listening

Add in 100 more examples, including artists.

Everyone’s a Creator

And that’s the opportunity.

Earn the most remixes & collabs - you win.
Educate, inspire & connect - you win.
Get people so involved your project becomes bigger than you - you win.

Look no further than Grimes’ AI-voice collaboration, Disclosure’s producer community, or Fred Again’s organic fan involvement to see this in action.

Inventing experiences where fans are active participants is the next phase of music's growth.

But we need to monetize it for artists.

Because we don’t need more content.
We need a bigger pie.

— Rob

Working on something interactive? Let me know.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Framing the Future of the Internet, Packy McCormick on web3’s breakout social protocol

2. The State of the Culture 2024, Ted Gioia on distraction killing entertainment.

3. Live music triggers stronger emotions than streamed music, study from University of Zurich

🦁 IN THE WILD

Play With Your Music

AudioMack just launched a way for fans to customize any song on the platform right from playback.

Tap the Mod button, then:

🎚️ Adjust with Sliders: Speed, reverb, pitch, distortion
🍴 Use Presets: Daycore, Nightcore, Slowed & Reverbed..
📮 Share with Friends: But you can’t download

It does not require artist approval, but all :30 plays count as royalties to the base track.

Signal to the Future: Creation, modification & sharing tools will increasingly merge into consumption. Can we monetize in ways that serve original artists?

→ Want to edit a track? Pay $0.25
→ Want to save it? Pay $0.50
→ Want to share it? Pay $1

🫰 It’s likely a more evolved versions of this, but the opportunity is bigger than simply driving more consumption.

📊 IN NUMBERS

Twitter tweet

Spotify also now says ~50% of revenue was generated from indies.

🤔 I confirmed the difference with Spotify: The 50% number includes artists signed to Merlin indies or distributed via major label-owned distributors. The 26% number does not.

Warner is Building a Superfan App

It will be cross-platform, connect artists & fans directly, and probably monetize the hell out em.

Cross-platform is smart: My guess is they get around platform exclusivity by offering the same superfan add-ons everywhere you stream.

Majors as Innovators? There’s not a strong history, but Kyncl comes from a tech background (Youtube) & has hired a team of ex-Spotify & Youtubers.

We shall see.

MVP will roll out this year.

Thanks for reading. Til next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

There’s been so much talk about superfans lately and I, as your resident fandom guy, felt I should weigh in on what the industry is getting wrong about the opportunity. Enjoy.

Inside Issue #26

• 💡 What music gets wrong about superfans

• 🥊 UMG & TikTok go toe-to-toe

• 🗞️ Plus, what you missed

Superfans

Everyone wants a piece.

Why?

Because after a decade focused solely on the most casual, lean back experience in the all-out pursuit of scale, growth is slowing & hyper-fragmentation has sliced attention thinner & thinner.

Nothing it sustainable.
Nothing is repeatable.
Nothing is predictable.

And superfans are a $4.2B annual opportunity that majors & streamers have in their sights.

But, here’s the thing:

1) Most of fandom’s value is gained in layers on top of streaming.

In ways that offer something deeper & more connective.

It’s social.
Communal.
Collectible.
Immersive.
Interactive.

It’s often mission-driven & it’s always artist-driven.

Passive streaming doesn’t fulfill it, which is why you see things like this:

2) Fandom happens at the artist level.

It’s bespoke, and each artist business must be the center of that control - not labels or platforms. Solutions must be modular, allowing artists to build their own worlds with unique value.

Give tools
Give access
Give resources

Then, get out of the way.

3) Superfans are more than just a bank.

Understanding Superfans, Luminate

They drive sticky discovery, loyalty & participation.

Creating superfans is even more important than monetizing them, because you’ll have people who stick around whether or not the next thing goes viral.

And the more you force it - with inauthentic, extractive systems by mega-corps - the whole thing falls apart.

Music’s next decade is about fandom.

But it’s about cultivating it, not just monetizing it.

It’s about creating meaningful relationships between artists & listeners, upgrading the experience for the biggest fans, and encouraging paths to fandom. It’s about building artists, not just songs.

Fandom is bespoke, but current mega-platforms & majors are built for mass consumption.

We need new tools that center artist-fan & fan-to-fan relationships.

Passive consumption has been prioritized over everything.

That time is over.

— Rob

PS: Spotify might be building superfan clubs. Altho…they did just gut their fans first & monetization teams. We’ll see.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. Deep dive profile on Lucian Grainge & UMG’s approach to AI, by the New Yorker.

2. The good fan and the futility of likes, follows & shares, by Josh Dalton.

3. The music industry needs a new growth story, by Lucas Shaw at Bloomberg

UMG Removes Music from TikTok

Music’s top discovery platform vs. its most powerful label.

UMG’s open letter states 3 reasons for pulling their music when the current deal expires (today):

1. Payments: TikTok is offering “a fraction of the rate that similarly situated major social platforms pay”.

2. AI Dilution: “TikTok is allowing the platform to be flooded with AI-generated recordings”. Plus, UMG accuses them of diluting the royalty pool by providing gen-AI tools to users.

3. Online Safety: UMG says they want more efficient safeguards to stem harassment & infringing content.

TikTok Fires Back: “It is sad and disappointing that Universal Music Group has put their own greed above the interests of their artists and songwriters.”

TikTok believes they’re not a streaming platform & should not structure deals like Spotify or Apple, claim UMG is using a false narrative & they’ve been able to reach ‘artist-first’ agreements with every other partner.

Can We Be Friends? UMG may need TikTok more than TikTok needs UMG, but they work best together. It’s a moment of leverage — TikTok’s power will only grow — but they will work it out & the terms will affect every artist.

Interested in working together to grow your startup? Let’s chat. I take on a limited number of projects for strategy & growth. Just reply here.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’m sharing a story that helped me understand the power of knowing your fans.

Inside Issue #25

• 💡 The shape of your audience

• 🛠️ A new artist-centric streaming platform

• 🚀 Web3 music momentum

• 🗞️ Plus, what you missed

The Shape of Your Audience

Just because 20% of people are superfans doesn’t mean 20% of yours are.

Every audience has a different shape.

Here’s how to think about it:

• Size = Number of listeners & followers

• Shape = Balance of listeners to fans to superfans

And now, more than ever, you need close bonds with fans. There's simply too much noise — without depth, you're forgotten tomorrow.

You need to go deep, not just wide.

Going beyond 20% superfans

One of the last artists I managed does about 20 million streams per album. That's $80,000 in royalties - not much on its own.

But, they make 10x that touring the record.

Why?

They have an extremely high concentration of core fans.

They buy vinyl.
Merch.
Limited editions.

They buy concert tickets in numbers you wouldn't expect when seeing their 300,000 monthly listener count.

These fans are worth far more than passive listeners, and they're the key to building a sustainable career - particularly for artists going their own path.

This artist will earn over $1m touring the record in year 1 & almost every category will earn more than streaming:

1-Year-Earning Estimates
Touring: ~$1,000,000
Streaming: ~$80,000*
Sync Licensing: ~$50,000*
Albums: ~$150,000
Soft Merch: ~$200,000
TOTAL: ~$1,480,000
*numbers for newest album only / pub-side not included

Not bad for an artist 99% of you have never heard of.

This isn't a superstar artist by any means. But they are proof that when done right, there are avenues for sustainability outside the mainstream.

You do this by thinking about the shape of your audience, not just the size of it.

By going deep.
Not (just) wide.

The shape of your audience matters.

With hundreds of millions of songs, millions of artists, and attention so fractured, artists that best nurture core fandom will outlast — and outearn — the field.

Deep audiences win.

If yours is overwhelmingly listeners, it needs to be massive. If it's heavy on fans & core fans, more possibilities emerge.

The good news?

New technology & tools are making it easier for artists to surpass 20% superfans.

You can..

• Engage directly

• Tell your story

• Deeply understand your fans

• Create personalized experiences

• Capture data at shows & digital moments

• Integrate every fan interaction

• Reward & monetize fandom

• Build community

You can build your world — and be the center of it.

Of course, tools are only as good as the strategy & execution behind them.

My mandate is to map these out & show how to grow sustainably with the right mindset. This newsletter is the first step — with more to come in 2024.

(see below)

— Rob

PS: Want to build out your direct-to-fan approach? I’m piloting a sustainable growth agency for select artists & builders. Join the interest list here.

PPS: Is Phish the best example of an extremely deep audience shape?

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

2024 predictions round-up edition..

1. MIDiA’s 2024 Predictions, from Mark Mulligan & co.

2. 2024 Music Industry Predictions, from Jay Gilbert

3. Live Music Biz 2024 Outlook, from Variety.

Revisit my 10 predictions for the next 5 years (1 year wasn’t enough).

🛠️ NEW TOOLS

An Artist-Centric Streaming Platform

Sona

Sona is a lean-in streaming platform that’s as much about connection as it is consumption.

They’re looking to reshape how artists earn & fans engage.

They’re zigging: It’s free to stream, with no ads & no algos — opting for only human-curated playlists & social discovery. The 1st prompt upon entry is following friends, not artists.

So, how does it work? Artists can auction SONAs (one-of-a-kind digital twins of songs). Fans buy their favorites to build out their collection & begin to earn 70% of that song’s streaming rewards (read more).

Why I like it: Streaming usually rewards wide audiences, not deep ones. Maybe Sona can do both. It’s a bit complicated & fans will need to see the true value. But, I’m rooting for it.

Sona is now in open-beta to artists from select distros.

Watch Sona co-founder Laura TJD talk on the Invest in Music podcast

3 more streamers trying to zig…

• Audius: Decentralized streamer with token reward system

• Formless: Protocol with artist-set terms & seamless revenue-sharing.

• Supercollector: Web3 Bandcamp-on-steriods just launched Radio.

Thanks for reading. Interested in working together?

• Book a 1:1 session to discuss your project

• Join the waitlist for my direct-to-fan agency

• Explore consulting services covering strategy, growth & beyond

Or just shoot me a reply. Catch you next time.

- Rob

Hello, artists & builders.

Vinyl keeps growing. Today, we’ll take a look at why, and what it means for the future of music sales.

Inside Issue #24

💡 Idea: Unpacking vinyl’s resurgence
🛠️ Tools: An all-in-one vinyl service
🤔 Breakdown: TikTok adds artist accounts

PS: We’re working on a beta of a direct-to-fan agency for artists. If you’re interested in joining or finding out more, please join the waitlist.

Vinyl's Resurgence is Wild

Have you ever seen a chart look like this?

1. On top of the world
2. Drops by 99.5%
3. Left for dead for 20 years

Then?

Up 8400% over 17 years of consecutive growth!

And no signs of slowing down - doubling in just the last 2 years.

The kicker?

50% of buyers don't even own a record player!

What's happening?

Here's how I look at it:

→ Vinyl's 1st phase was about consumption.
→ Vinyl's resurgence is about collection.

It's about fandom.

Ownership.
Permanence.
Ritual.

It's about a deeper experience in the artist's world.

People are looking for this - and they’re not getting it from streaming. It requires a complimentary, non-disposable format.

1 Vinyl LP = 1 Unit of Fandom

What is the digital equivalent?

We increasingly live in immersive, online worlds.

→ 70 million kids are on Roblox every day, and
→ They spend 19 hours per week there on average

That’s 64 billion hours a year.

Digital formats for fandom present huge opportunity.

And vinyl has it’s issues

It's expensive to make & ship
It's terrible for the environment
It requires high minimums

While some of this friction is a feature, not a bug..

It’s not ideal for niche artists or an increasingly spread out, global audience.

A digital unit of fandom

This is probably the best argument for on-chain music, even if most fans wouldn’t realize it.

Some are already tackling it (on & off-chain):

Sound → Collectible songs
Serenade → Digital Pressings
Relics → Wearable Roblox music
Medallion → Artist clubs selling collectibles
IYK, Berify + Tribly → Bridge physical items to digital

Or, perhaps it’s something we haven’t even seen yet.

— Rob

📚️ My 3 Favorites Takes This Week

1. The next phase for social media, and what that means for artists, by Darren Hemmings of Motive Unknown.

2. Spotify Wrapped is great, but have you ever tried owning your fan data? - Oh wait…this one’s from me

3. This diagram tracks ownership across music-tech, by Cherie Hu.

⚒️ NEW TOOLS

Plant to Turntable Vinyl

Pressly is a new vinyl-as-a-service plant offering a seamless, all-in-one service for artists at any level.

Design, create, warehouse, fund & sell vinyl all in one place.

🤏 Low Minimum: Start with 100 units
💨 Quick Turnaround: Vinyl in 8-10 weeks
🗣️ Dedicated Teams: Production + support
📦️ Logistics: Shipping + fulfillment, sorted
🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Crowdpress: Pre-launch with a crowdfund
🛒 Direct Sales: On Pressly or your Shopify

Choose a crowdpress and once your project hits its goal, Pressly will create, distribute, and collect payment.

Timely Solution: With CD Baby stepping back from warehousing & shipping artist products, Pressly comes in as a fresh, new option.

They just launched live beta this week.

🧠 A streamlined system that simplifies the vinyl process. 

🔧 THAT HELPS

TikTok Adds Artist Accounts

TikTok have made Artist Accounts available to any musician. And they come with new tools to engage your audience:

1. MUSIC TAB: Your music catalog sits as a tab on your profile that auto-adds new music as its released. Pin your 3 focus tracks to the top.

2. NEW RELEASE: Highlight new tracks with a tag up to 2 weeks before & 30 days after release.

3. CLAIM THE TOP SOUND: Pin your videos to the top of the sound detail page. They’ll get a “By artist” tag on them - driving people back to you.

4. OFFICIAL ARTIST BADGE: Get an Artist’ label on your profile.

Discovery → Streaming: This all works well with the recently launched 1-click Add to Music App for users.

→ Discover a jam
→ Hit the new 'Add Song' button
→ Choose Spotify, Apple, or Amazon Music

The song auto-saves into your liked tracks. (Clearly this will be a TikTok Music push in the near future).

TikTok is making it easier to go from discovery to artist.

🧰 Use all the tools to get people closer & into your context.

Set yours up here from mobile.

Catch you next time.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’m getting out my crystal ball & making some bold predictions on where music’s going.

Inside Issue #23

• 10 predictions on music’s future

• Spotify’s actual minimum stream threshold

• How to create content in the TikTok era

10 Predictions for the Next 5 Years of Music

So, where is music going?

Here’s some of my takes on shakeups we may see in the next 5 years. Boldness may vary.

It’s the year 2028…here’s what music looks like:

1. ONE BILLION MUSIC CREATORS

AI tools help blur the lines between artist & consumer. Most will create for an audience of one or in fun, easy, social, gamified experiences. Co-creation & interactivity become the leading driver of music's new growth.

2. 100 MILLION SONGS WILL BE RELEASED TO DSPS EACH YEAR

99% will be heard by no one.

These 275,000 songs per day will represent only a tiny fraction of the total songs created but not officially released.

The only way this doesn’t happen, is if…

3. MUSIC STREAMERS BECOME INCREASINGLY PAY-TO-PLAY

As they look to drive revenue & realize creators are willing to spend far more money than consumers ever will for mass consumption.

They will charge for things like

→ Playlist pitching
→ Annual track hosting
→ Boosts to reach your own audience

Initial versions of this are already happening & the music industry is (mostly) happy to pay to cut in line for a sliver of your attention.

The experience will deteriorate & discerning fans will find other options.

(This is known as enshittification)

4. TAYLOR SWIFT IS THE LAST OF MUSIC’S GLOBAL SUPERSTARS

We never see an artist gain this level of multi-generational awareness again. Artists will sell out arenas, sell tons of albums, get billions of streams & have tons of fans (perhaps more than Taylor), but most people will not know who they are.

5. THE GREAT ARTIST UNBUNDLING

We'll see a major shift in the artist-fan experience away from mega-platforms that bundle all artists together as content, to artist-centric platforms that bundle each artist's music, art, engagement, membership & commerce.

Most passive consumption will still happen on mega-platforms, but…

6. MEGA-PLATFORMS & MAJORS MISS OUT ON THE “SUPERFAN” OPPORTUNITY

They're built for mass consumption & feed the lowest common denominator. Fandom is bespoke, and entirely new tools that center the artist-fan and fan-to-fan relationships will win.

7. AN AI-ARTIST PLAYS COACHELLA’S MAIN STAGE

An AI designed artist with a fully synthetic voice, backed by an unknown creator, will play the main stage at Coachella. Think a new version of Daft Punk, 2028.

8. THE MARVEL-IZATION OF MUSIC

Major catalog owners churn out music's version of sequels, using AI & their deep catalogs to exploit timeless material for continued profit.

→ Generate new songs
→ Create derivatives
→ And bring dead artists back to “life”

Anything to extend blue-chip material & IP.

Catalog & its reincarnations take increasing priority over new music for the biggest players.

9. THE RISE OF COLLECTIVES

New forms of collectives (partially) fill the role of labels & curators, offering collaboration & resource-sharing while challenging traditional industry hierarchies. They become the artist launchpads, as they have a superpower few will hold — authentic, engaged audiences.

10. A NEW ARTIST SELLS OUT ARENAS WITHOUT RELEASING ANY MUSIC ON TRADITIONAL PLATFORMS

Solely through grassroots, community-centric growth, bypassing conventional platforms entirely. Instead of competing against the noise, they create their own space outside of it.

Community-building becomes the most important skill for artists.

One thing is for certain.

There will be more noise than ever - in music - and from everywhere else.

Trying to reach everyone will be futile.

— Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. As some major news dropped on changes coming to Spotify’s payout system, I’m changing the format & focusing there today.

Inside Issue #22

• Spotify’s new payout rules

• Before & after Spotify royalty calculator

Spotify’s new payout model

Spotify launched in 2008 and - with it - the streaming royalty system we’ve had ever since.

Pro-rata.

Image: Ampled, with my edits

→ Everything goes in one big pot.
→ Divide it up based on your share of streams.

15 years later, it’s outdated & broken.

(Hell, it’s even laundered.)

But, changes are coming.

In Q1 2024, Spotify will install the 1st updates to streaming royalties in since inception.

Let’s get into it:

3 major changes to Spotify's payout system:

1. Minimum Annual Stream Threshold

Any song that doesn't hit it receives $0.

→ Expected to de-monetize 0.5% of songs
→ Targeting tracks that earn <$0.05/mo
→ Exact number TBA, but likely ~200

Each track is tiny, but with 120k dropped per day it's projected to total $40M next year.

2. Fraud Penalties for Distributors

Not just a takedown, a crackdown.

→ Song is shown to be associated with fraud
→ Track gets taken down
→ Distro & label get hit with fees

😬 The self-service distro model for $10/year might have a problem. These platforms are inherently relationship-less with artists. How do you know to trust random uploaders?

3. Higher Playtime Requirement for Non-Artist Noise Tracks

Time to fire this bad boy back up

Before→ Every song needs :30 to receive royalties.
Soon → Noise tracks require longer play times.

Maybe as long as 4 mins.

These songs can still get paid, but can less effectively game the system by cramming 10 hours of 31 second rain sounds for sleeping onto a single playlist.

Note: this is only for noise tracks NOT associated with true artist profiles.

Why is Spotify making these changes?

100 million tracks
120k added per day
30 seconds to earn a royalty

Up to 10% of streams are frauds

AI only makes this harder.

The system is outdated & has been gamed - real artists pay the price.

How will this change your payouts?

Here’s my back of the napkin, based on available info.

I put together a calculator for anyone to use.

Spotify Royalty Calculator

Keep in mind all numbers are not official & subject to change.

• If your song gets above ~200 streams per year, it will likely earn ~7% more than it would have otherwise.

• If your song gets under ~200 streams per year, it will earn $0 instead of up to $0.60.

*You can see how I came up with these numbers at the calculator.

Premium vs. User-Generated-Music

We’re on pace for 40 million tracks uploaded to Spotify this year.

What happens when 1 billion people are creating AI-assisted songs inside a half dozen apps & hitting the “send to Spotify” button?

Death by a billion user-generated cuts.

Democratization at that level has the potential to turn every artist into a hobbyist.

Or…

This next level of participation - where the lines between creator & consumer get very blurry - can create a much more active experience, grow the pot and benefit working artists.

It’s probably a system that looks nothing like this.

User-generated music is going to explode.

If it doesn’t have a home at Spotify…

It will somewhere.

— Rob

PS: This week’s newsletter was supposed to be ‘10 Bold Predictions for the next 5 Years of Music’, until this news dropped. Included were the number of songs being released, resulting in streamers/majors squashing it & more tightly controlling free-for-all distributors. I guess it wasn’t so bold.

PPS: Predictions coming next week.

Thanks for reading.

Back to my normal style next week. See you on Twitter or LinkedIn.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’m sharing a story that helped me understand the power of knowing your fans.

Inside Issue #21

💡 Idea: Know your fans
🦁 In the Wild: An artist-owned platform
🔧 That Helps: Spotify revamps artist profiles
🗞️ Plus: The Sphere, fundraises & more

When I was 23, I learned the power of knowing your fans.

I was promoting a show for an artist in a 1,000 cap room. The manager sent the contract back signed, but crossed off the marketing budget.

Managers usually want more marketing, not less.

This guy wanted zero.

"Why?", I asked.

“Why waste money hoping to reach people who might be interested, when I can just directly message everyone I know cares?”

Simple. Obvious, even.

But, overlooked.

The show sold out & the artist pocketed 85% of that proposed marketing budget. The manager likely did this every show that tour, netting an extra $100k+ (and making every promoter love them).

I felt like I had just learned a cheat code.

It's not just that this artist had an email list (everyone better) - it's that they had done all the work to convert everyone into it & understood how to activate them.

They built their tribe and KNEW the power of it.

It's so simple, but when you know your fans, you have a superpower.

- you're not reliant on algorithms
- not constantly rediscovering & reselling
- not wasting money on inefficient ad dollars

Everything becomes repeatable.

There is no better marketing plan than having a direct relationship with your fans.

Building a tribe compounds.

Capturing Fan Data

Use every opportunity to upgrade your relationship. Both online & IRL.

1. Create moments for fans to join in

2. Onboard smoothly & effectively

3. Create fan segments (location, intent)

4. Set up welcome sequences

5. Nurture & stay engaged

Spend as much time on email, SMS & community as you do on social content.

— Rob

PS: Here is a starter list for places to capture fan data.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. 28 thoughts on seeing U2 at the Sphere, by Steven Hyden.

2. Building audience vs. building fandom, nice Midia piece that dovetails nicely with my last piece on fan intent.

3. Why there’s never been a better time to be a creator, by Hunter Walk.

🦁 IN THE WILD

Bring Your Fans Closer

PANIC.FM

TOBi created his own corner of the internet.

Ahead of his 3rd album with Sony/RCA, TOBi felt the need for a space that was genuinely his - where he owned the relationship with his fans.

Enter PANIC.FM:

His own platform where fans can dive into TOBi’s universe. Experience the album & surrounding context in his full vision, with comic-style visualizers that bring the album’s narrative to life.

🎧️ 3 Listen Modes: Album. Demo. Stem.
💬 Chat: Connect with TOBi & other fans
📺️ Livestream: Release day listening party
🧔 Profiles: Customizable avatars
⛰️ Missions: Engage to unlock deeper layers
🎙️ Convos: Interviews with album collaborators

Plus, extra context, new releases & hidden artifacts from the record.

Tell Your Story: So much music experience happens with artist context ripped away. TOBi tells his story in his own aesthetic, letting fans go as deep as they want.

Intent: He created a place for deep, meaningful engagement that highlighted big fans & welcomed new ones. 32% of visitors completed 10+ missions.

🎨 Be your own platform & craft the experience you want your fans to have.

🤔 BREAKDOWN

Spotify revamps artist profiles

Concerts & Merch finally get more focus.

3 new tabs across the top of artist profiles:

→ Music
→ Events
→ Merch

Testing showed a 15% jump in ticket purchases thru the app & 22% increase in users purchasing merch once visiting the merch tab.

👏 Convert listeners into fans at every opportunity.

Learn how to set it up.

Thanks for reading.

Catch you next time. And see you on Twitter or LinkedIn.

- Rob

Welcome, artists & builders.

Each week, we navigate music’s future together. Today I’m sharing my framework for thinking about all fan interactions.

Inside Issue #20

💡 Idea: It’s all about intent
📊 In Numbers: Streaming growth
🤔 Breakdown: Bandcamp sold again
🗞️ Plus: BlackPink, Bob Boilen, Web3 Grants & more

You don’t (just) need more fans.

You need people who care.

How do you measure who cares?

With intent:

Most of the ways people interact with music is low-intent.

• In the background

• Selected for them

• Costs nothing

And most strategies are to increase the volume of these interactions.

Going after low-intent people in low-intent places, hoping they funnel down to something more valuable.

But that’s a hard journey:

1. You need to play the reach game

2. You need to find out who they are

3. You need to convert them into fans

Because your monthly listeners don’t care.

They’re not your fans.

You need people who care.

You need high-intent fans with high-intent actions.

High-intent doesn’t necessarily require money. Time, effort, and energy all matter.

• Buying

• Joining

• Interacting

Anything that shows they care.

Because caring is sticky.

When you give people high-intent ways to interact, they’re more likely to stick to you long-term, and attract more high-intent people.

Fans have new ways to show intent.

They’re more interactive.

Community.
Co-creation.
Participation.
Social listening.

Lean into these wherever you can.

It may feel small - like it’s one by one - but each relationship has far more value.

You want out of the hits game.

Where nothing is repeatable & you’re starting over every time.

→ Radio was the old hits game.
→ Playlisting was the next.
→ TikTok is the newest.

This doesn’t mean you don’t need discovery, it means you need people who stick around regardless if the next single or TikTok goes viral.

Without intent, you’ll always be playing the hits game.

You need fans.
You need connections.
You need people that actually care.

That’s repeatable.

— Rob

Use intent to analyze opportunities, audience, and purpose. Volume x Intent = Value.

📚️ My 3 Favorite Reads This Week

1. The future of the DAW: deep-dive on how DAWs will cope with AI & new tech, by Declan McGlynn

2. Most of the creator economy is doing fine, it’s musicians who need help, by Adam Singer

3. We can’t compete with AI girlfriends: eye-opening look at where AI chatbots are going.

📊 IN NUMBERS

Streaming growth is slowing in mature markets.

RIAA Mid-Year 2023 Report

This is why we’re (finally) seeing price rises, which are good, but won’t be enough. We need new growth from interactivity, engagement & creation itself.

Bandcamp has been sold to Songtradr.

Bandcamp is THE artist-friendly home for direct sales for over 5 million growing artists & labels.

It’s now been sold 2x in 18 months.

→ Mar 2022 to Epic Games
→ Sep 2023 to Songtradr

Songtradr is a B2B sync licensing platform:

• Sells inexpensive syncs to brands & creators

• Offers distro to the longtail of artists

• Bandcamp artists can tap into this

Fine. But Bandcamp is far more central to artist's than an automated sync platform they could easily sign up for anyway.

I hate to see it ping-pong to the highest bidder.

🤔 Hopefully Songtradr gives it the love it deserves. If not, there’s many new platforms vying to capture this superfan & D2F moment.

Thanks for reading.

Catch you next time. And see you on Twitter or LinkedIn.

- Rob