WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.100 --> 00:00:09.720 [upbeat music] Hey, everyone. Charlie here. We're running a quick survey. We want to better understand who our listeners are. Do me a huge favor and fill out that survey. 2 00:00:09.980 --> 00:00:22.780 It takes under a minute, and the link is in the show description. This helps us make better content for you. Thanks a ton for listening. Link in the show notes. Michael Saylor announces the Bitcoin Defense Department. 3 00:00:22.880 --> 00:00:40.120 Yes, that is actually five points of the MicroStrategy big boy, big idea play to secure your paper Bitcoin because it's paper Bitcoin summer. If all of that seems like gobbledygook to you, stay on the line. 4 00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:55.920 We're gonna talk about it on Bitcoin Season two. [upbeat music] Okay, we're back. It's, uh, Bitcoin Season 2 Writers Room. We are the screenwriters for Bitcoin Season 2. It feels like a movie. 5 00:00:56.100 --> 00:01:09.380 Last night was a movie, and, uh, this is the morning after. We're gonna talk about Michael Saylor's crazy post this week, Colin. Um, let's just, let's just jump right into it. 6 00:01:09.480 --> 00:01:26.840 So Michael Saylor, on July twenty-third, which is Wednesday, posted a picture. Um, and this deviated from Michael Saylor's normal artificial intelligence-driven ChatGPT-looking-like, um, uh, memes of himself. 7 00:01:27.320 --> 00:01:45.120 And this, uh, w- showed, uh, Michael's, Michael Saylor MicroStrategy's five, uh, maybe pillars of Tradfi, uh, Bitcoin games, and it arranged them in a pent- pentagram. 8 00:01:45.240 --> 00:02:01.240 Pentagon, sorry. Well, a pentagram within a pentagon. What did you think when you saw this? [laughing] For those listening on audio, I was just acting like I was being possessed by a demon. 9 00:02:01.540 --> 00:02:11.440 Eyes rolling back- He's like crawling up the wall backwards. Hanging on chains from the ceiling. [laughs] My head's gonna start turning like the girl from, uh, Exorcist and- Yeah... spew green vomit. 10 00:02:11.720 --> 00:02:20.020 Yeah, I mean, I think the pentagram thing is kind of funny. Let's, let's get this up here. Let's, uh- Yeah, let's get it up there. So you have the original MicroStrategy, now Strategy, MSTR. 11 00:02:20.540 --> 00:02:34.210 You have the new preferred stock, Stretch. Really funny name that we will be talking about here in a second, STRC. You have Stride, STRD. Um, I'm- Dark... I'm, I-- Strike? Striker? I'm, at this point- Dark Strike... 12 00:02:34.220 --> 00:02:44.440 I'm kind of getting lost in all the acronyms- Strk... and stock tickers. STRK. And then I would like to believe this one is Strife. I know it's not, but then you have STRF. So what... 13 00:02:44.480 --> 00:02:53.460 These are all preferred, uh, Series A preferred stocks within the Strategy universe as opposed to Strategy's common stock, MSTR. 14 00:02:53.960 --> 00:03:03.940 Now, the TLDR for that is the common stock with MicroStrategy does not entitle shareholders to any dividends or payouts from the company, but these preferred stocks do. 15 00:03:04.460 --> 00:03:14.890 And MicroStrategy, uh, sorry, excuse me, Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has been issuing these new preferred stocks. I believe this year is when it started. I could be wrong about that. 16 00:03:14.920 --> 00:03:26.220 Maybe one of these started at the end of last year. But within the last year, Strategy has been kind of pivoting away from the convert strategy of issuing convertible notes, 17 00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:34.960 which is a form of debt that can be later converted into the company's stock by the note holder if that stock price is favorable, right? 18 00:03:35.040 --> 00:03:50.980 If the convertible note has a share price by option of, for in MicroStrategy's case, this is just throwing it out there, like one hundred dollars per share, this, the sh- uh, if the share is like three hundred, four hundred dollars per share, then obviously you're just gonna convert that and then sell it to capture those gains or hold onto it. 19 00:03:51.400 --> 00:04:02.800 But the convertible notes basically act as kind of like a hybrid equity debt instrument, where if the stock price is below the strike price in the convertible note contract, then the company will have to pay back that debt. 20 00:04:02.820 --> 00:04:11.840 And if not, the debt gets converted to equity. This was MicroStrategy's bread and butter. It's how they amassed what is now like six hundred thousand Bitcoin. 21 00:04:11.880 --> 00:04:25.840 The majority of those Bitcoin were purchased using this convertible note strategy. But recently, Strategy has shifted to a new strategy of issuing these preferred s- uh, stock options, and there are now four. 22 00:04:26.220 --> 00:04:32.180 The fourth one, Stretch, which was announced this week, has not been tapped yet. They have just announced their intent to do an IPO for it. 23 00:04:32.620 --> 00:04:44.850 But the rest of these have already been tapped, and they offer dividends anywhere from eight to ten percent. Now, you might be asking why- Where, where does the yield come from, Colin? Where does the yield come from? 24 00:04:45.620 --> 00:04:52.469 Um, the yield comes from you if you don't know where it comes from. No, I'm just kidding. But actually, kinda yeah. It kinda, yeah. 25 00:04:52.560 --> 00:05:06.520 In this case, th- this has kind of been one of the criticism from Strategy, um, using this new, uh, tapping this form of fundraising. Uh, I'm gonna get into some of the pros, but I will address the cons outright. 26 00:05:06.620 --> 00:05:21.140 I mean, Barron's put out an article this week that after the Stretch offering, Strategy will be on the hook for three hundred to four hundred million in dividends per year on these stock offerings. 27 00:05:21.200 --> 00:05:33.700 Now- Does that start like next year or like this year? So they're monthly is the thing. So yeah. So th- these pay out monthly. So they, they will be paying out monthly dividends. These are high yield too, right? Yeah. 28 00:05:33.710 --> 00:05:45.080 So it's hard to be a realtor- This is great. This is a great deal for holders- Yeah... assuming nothing breaks. As- assuming they don't also reprice the dividend, which they can do, and we'll get to that in a second. 29 00:05:45.180 --> 00:05:53.700 But, you know, they're anywhere from eight to ten percent. Treasuries right now are yielding four percent, right? If you're doing longer term ones. 30 00:05:54.440 --> 00:05:57.900 Um, short term ones, much less than that, somewhere in the ballpark of three percent. 31 00:05:58.580 --> 00:06:09.108 So you're getting outsized returns compared to other-Assets that you could park your capital in, or at least, you know, quote, you know, like risk-free assets like treasuries. 32 00:06:09.668 --> 00:06:15.668 Uh, this is definitely not a risk-free asset. Uh, it's been compared to treasuries because of the high yield, and people are gonna use that as a benchmark. 33 00:06:15.788 --> 00:06:26.568 Obviously, it's completely at a, on a different end of the risk curve compared to treasuries. Uh, but they do pay eight to ten percent. I believe the most recent one is nine with, with Stretch. And so... 34 00:06:26.768 --> 00:06:38.187 But Strategies are gonna be on the hook for three to four hundred million dollars for these dividends, and these pay out monthly, be it over the course of a year. That's like r- the rough math according to Barron's. 35 00:06:38.308 --> 00:06:49.598 They made a hundred and eleven million dollars in revenue from their core business in Q1, and that is just straight revenue. None of that is, is profit. So- And that's been pretty flat. Michael Saylor said that... 36 00:06:49.628 --> 00:07:00.928 says that's been, like, mostly consistent. It's just, like, not a growing business, which is the- Yeah... whole reason why he got orange pilled in twenty-twenty and, you know, has been on this Saylor arc. 37 00:07:00.948 --> 00:07:09.168 Yeah, and clearly, like, it's one of the most talked about stocks, I feel like, and, you know, people either hate it, love it- Yeah, even outside of Bitcoin... or are indifferent about it. It's like now... 38 00:07:09.208 --> 00:07:18.888 It's like the story has crossed. It's jumped the shark. Yeah. It, it's kind of... It's, it's, it's, it's in its own league in terms of- Crossed the Rubicon, my bad. The, the- Yeah... shark has... Yeah. 39 00:07:18.928 --> 00:07:28.258 Well, the shark is in the Rubicon- Yeah... and Michael Saylor is dressed up like Fonzie from Happy Days. Uh, that being said, if you don't understand the jump the shark reference, Google it. 40 00:07:28.288 --> 00:07:29.347 I'm not gonna go into it here. 41 00:07:29.408 --> 00:07:42.868 Anyway, gross profit in Q1 was seventy-seven point one million, which doesn't even cover MicroStrategy's payroll and SG&A costs, which came in at ninety-two point four million for the quarter. 42 00:07:43.468 --> 00:07:46.668 So, like, TLDR, they won't be able... 43 00:07:46.768 --> 00:08:03.388 unless they really turbocharge their revenue or they cut costs in their core business, they will not be able to service any of these dividends from the cash the business brings in, which is traditionally what you expect from a dividend-yielding stock. 44 00:08:03.448 --> 00:08:17.768 Like, they will pay dividends from their income to the stockholders, and that's, you know, kind of the, the keep it simple, stupid, uh, case for holding a dividend-bearing stock. I mean, that's what stocks were for in... 45 00:08:18.188 --> 00:08:27.668 originally. It's like you buy stock, you get a dividend. MicroStrategy won't be able to service any of these dividends from its revenue, though, at least as it stands currently. That could change. 46 00:08:28.148 --> 00:08:29.648 Likely unlikely to change. 47 00:08:30.008 --> 00:08:46.678 So the only way they will be able to produce yield for these dividends is from further stock issuance and dilution, taking on debt or selling Bitcoin, which Michael Strate- uh, which, which Michael's strategy, which Michael Saylor has emphatically said you should never do. 48 00:08:46.678 --> 00:08:56.428 Doesn't mean they won't do it, but- He has, like, been asked this question directly a few times. He's directly been asked in public settings, "Will you sell your Bitcoin if, you know, it comes to it?" 49 00:08:56.488 --> 00:09:03.608 And he has very conspicuously said nothing directly answering that. 50 00:09:03.648 --> 00:09:16.388 He has very conspicuously said, uh, given, um, indirect answers about how one should never sell their Bitcoin and no statements, uh, in response to this. Although, 51 00:09:17.368 --> 00:09:28.598 looking at, like, the, you know, requirements to keep this stock at the price it is, you would have to sell Bitcoin. So- I mean, at some point, maybe. It depends on what Bitcoin's doing- That's true, yeah... 52 00:09:28.608 --> 00:09:34.208 and if they can continue to raise... I mean, that's why this whole thing, I think, is either... you're either on... 53 00:09:34.848 --> 00:09:44.768 to complicate the midwit meme, you're either on the left side of the curve saying, like, "Bitcoin's always gonna go up," or you're on the right side of the curve, high IQ, "Bitcoin's always gonna go up, so none of this matters." 54 00:09:44.828 --> 00:09:51.908 But, like, there is a situation in which Bitcoin might not go up, and it actually does start to matter whether or not they can raise capital to keep the machine running. 55 00:09:52.358 --> 00:09:58.388 And, and Saylor saying that he's never going to sell his Bitcoin kind of rings to me like Trump saying, "We're gonna release the Epstein files." 56 00:09:58.748 --> 00:10:10.908 And then you get into office, and then someone taps on your shoulder, or, "Hey, hi, actually, your name is in there." And now suddenly reality meets, you know, idealism, and you gonna compromise on a few things. 57 00:10:11.488 --> 00:10:20.768 Uh, this is not a political podcast, but have to- Yeah, it is. It, it's just a matter of time till we dissent on- We just need to find a way to get our name on the list of podcasts that talk about Epstein. 58 00:10:20.868 --> 00:10:26.027 You know- Yeah... maybe that'll be beneficial for us in the future, or maybe a bullet will end up on my doorstep. Probably not. Yeah. 59 00:10:26.308 --> 00:10:37.868 When, when Bit-Bitcoin goes back into a bear market, we'll, we'll become, like, a bit- uh, a political history podcast. We'll become, like, a, a limited Hangouts. Exactly. Um, or sorry, unlimited Hangouts. Unlimited. 60 00:10:37.968 --> 00:10:49.648 With Webb. No, we'll be limited Hangouts. [laughs] But anyway, so to kinda just put a bow on this, uh, one of the things I do wanna talk about are some of the pros for why people think this is a better strategy. 61 00:10:50.368 --> 00:11:05.048 Um, if, if you can, if you can service the dividends, then this actually is in some ways smarter than taking on the convertible debt just because it de-risks any potential for you to have to sell Bitcoin or generate cash to pay off the debt. 62 00:11:05.088 --> 00:11:10.308 Because if Bitcoin were to, uh, draw down significantly and my... 63 00:11:10.348 --> 00:11:20.808 and Strategy's share price took a hit, when those converts come due, and a lot of them are pretty far out into the future, so this is not the biggest concern and has been one of the bull cases for why the converts are smart. 64 00:11:20.908 --> 00:11:28.728 Uh, if, if Strategy's share price is below the convertible price, then they're gonna have to pay back that debt. The only way they can pay back that debt is by selling Bitcoin. 65 00:11:28.768 --> 00:11:38.038 They're not gonna be able to raise cash if Bitcoin's taking a hit. And if Bitcoin's taking a hit, their Bitcoin is worth less. Uh, they're gonna, uh, you know, further put pressure on the Bitcoin price. 66 00:11:38.488 --> 00:11:50.998 You can kind of see a spiral narrative from something like that, right? So that is one pro is that you, you kind of are de-risking your capital market strategy away from having too much of that convertible debt. 67 00:11:51.588 --> 00:12:03.788 Uh, the other pro would be that you are also tapping into potentially to a new investor, um, sect, or excuse me, a new, a new investor profile that is looking for yield-bearing instruments. And, and I don't know... 68 00:12:03.988 --> 00:12:09.928 I, I, I can't say for sure. I haven't read any analysis on this. I don't think necessarily anyone would know for sure without having insider information. 69 00:12:09.988 --> 00:12:19.540 But, like, I'd be curious to see what the investor mix has been for some of these preferred stocks.Because maybe it is attracting new capital. I would imagine, though, that it's still pretty incestuous. 70 00:12:19.580 --> 00:12:28.240 It's like a lot of people who are already, um, strategy fanboys, it's already people who are levered to the tits and, um, you know, all in on Bitcoin, things like that. 71 00:12:28.840 --> 00:12:37.820 So the, the TLDR, the pro is that you're de-risking away from debt-like instruments. The con is where is the yield gonna come from for these stocks? 72 00:12:37.900 --> 00:12:45.170 And that is where the primary criticism has come in for this strategy, um, both within and without, I would say, the Bitcoin ecosystem. 73 00:12:45.260 --> 00:12:51.380 There are some just, like, you know, perennial Bitcoin naysayers who are gonna point to this and say, "This is terrible." 74 00:12:51.400 --> 00:13:12.760 But there are also some sharp analysts who are pretty Bitcoin bullish who, who are saying this too, that this kind of enters the Ponzi realm in a little bit because, you know, the yield to pay out dividends is predicated on people coming in and buying more of the stock or issuing debt to MicroStrategy to pay that off. 75 00:13:13.500 --> 00:13:22.400 So I could be missing something. If you're listening to this and you're like, "Colin's being a dumbass. Here's what you're missing," I just don't know where, where does the buck stop with these? 76 00:13:22.460 --> 00:13:34.660 At what point does strategy become too overstretched with these preferred stock offerings where they actually can't service the dividends? Because four hundred million is not really anything to laugh at. 77 00:13:35.180 --> 00:13:44.040 Maybe you're laughing at it as Strategy who raises a billion dollars on a slow day on, on [chuckles] on, you know- I think they just, like, announced, like, a two billion dollar or something of it this week. Yeah. So... 78 00:13:44.260 --> 00:13:56.140 So, you know, maybe this is just all out the window because, yeah, they're gonna... Maybe they'll do an at-the-market offering for the MicroStrategy stock, the MSTR stock. Uh, maybe they do another convert. 79 00:13:56.160 --> 00:14:06.260 And if it's a billion, then you just, you just bank that cash, and you pay it off through the dividends as you go. Your stock price is rising because of the interest from buying the Bitcoin and Bitcoin going up. 80 00:14:06.800 --> 00:14:14.380 Again, all of this is one hundred percent reliant on Bitcoin to continue to perform, which is really, I think, the kind of, like... 81 00:14:14.760 --> 00:14:24.609 And I think this is where you get people on either side of the aisle saying this is a good or a bad thing because the Bitcoin bulls are like, "Well, it's Bitcoin. Of course, it's gonna go up. It continues to go up." 82 00:14:24.630 --> 00:14:40.020 It's gonna... I mean, I, I, I say Bitcoin's gonna go up, but it's gonna go up tremendously. Like, I sign on to this idea. Um, I have been so ingrained to not lever up, uh, uh, you know, beyond, like, even a small amount. 83 00:14:40.120 --> 00:14:57.620 So, like, this has... This is, this frightens me because I see this being the primary top-of-funnel, um, product for this, whatever this modern era of Bitcoin, uh, onboarding is. 84 00:14:57.780 --> 00:15:05.820 And it's Paper Bitcoin Summer, which means that, [clears throat] um, it's a meme for anyone, anyone who's not on Twitter, Paper Bitcoin Summer. Everybody's leaning into it. 85 00:15:06.160 --> 00:15:18.459 You know, it's hot boy summer, hot girl summer, paper Bitcoin summer. Break out your tiki cups and put on a suit and tie and put that on your Twitter profile and talk about these, like, Bitcoin treasury companies. 86 00:15:18.500 --> 00:15:27.340 But we're sitting... Like, we do this, and I look at it like, we finally got all these people to finally buy Bitcoin with an asterisk. 87 00:15:27.860 --> 00:15:42.400 We got them to finally buy Bitcoin through their retirement accounts, but it's not, not even a Bitcoin ETF, which is probably a mu- a non-levered way to get exposure to Bitcoin. But now levered exposure. 88 00:15:42.480 --> 00:15:46.280 We were talking about this l- a couple episodes ago, Colin, where, [clears throat] like, 89 00:15:47.280 --> 00:15:58.920 Michael Saylor may just be able to do the damn thing because they are the biggest company, and he is a step ahead in these TradFi games of all the other competitors. 90 00:15:59.060 --> 00:16:12.740 We'll transition to talking about, like, this is the major trend right now, is everybody's doing the Saylor thing. But he's, he's multiple steps ahead in issuing these, uh, these, these types of preferred stock. 91 00:16:13.080 --> 00:16:20.560 Um, unless you have a thought, I w- I wanna pull up some, like, meme tweets. Meme- Um- Meme tweets. I do have one thought on that- Yeah... just to 92 00:16:22.500 --> 00:16:33.320 contextualize Strategy's position here 'cause I think that's a g- an important point. They were doing this in twenty-twenty, and so they are, uh, they are the blue-chip Bitcoin treasury stock. 93 00:16:33.420 --> 00:16:45.000 That is, they are the, the Apple, the Microsoft, the Google of this investing or, or, or equities cohort, right? Yeah. How many other search engines have you heard of that are still around besides Google? 94 00:16:45.060 --> 00:16:56.000 I mean, like, yeah- Yeah... that's a good comparison. They're the Google of search. Yeah. And so there are network effects with that, that they're going to be the first one that is either... 95 00:16:56.120 --> 00:17:13.880 I mean, your financial advisor's not going to advise you to buy this, but if you're asking for exposure to one of these highly levered Bitcoin plays, Strategy is going to be the first one that comes to mind at this point for, like, I would say ninety-plus percent of the investment community, at least those who are not trying to think outside of the box and look for outsized returns. 96 00:17:14.560 --> 00:17:22.960 And the other thing I would say is in terms of playing the capital markets, they have been brilliant in, in exploiting asymmetries when no one else was. 97 00:17:23.460 --> 00:17:36.760 And I do think the preferred stock offerings are a way for them to try to find yet another niche in the capital markets and, and capital markets to exploit to raise more money. Um, they've been very smart. 98 00:17:36.860 --> 00:17:48.200 People who are much smarter than I am about analyzing this have broken down why a lot of these instruments are more accretive than not, and clearly they have been. 99 00:17:48.400 --> 00:18:08.160 I just think, though, you have to ask yourself, at what point does a company get too cute with its financial engineering that you end up risking being, [chuckles] you know, risking being too levered and, and diluting too much and having too many liabilities on hand to where the train kind of gets out of control. 100 00:18:08.620 --> 00:18:19.540 I mean, I, I, I just would remind everyone that, like, Strategy was one of the companies that blew up in the dot-com bubble. Um, Saylor has been here before. 101 00:18:19.600 --> 00:18:31.610 Maybe he's learned from it, and he's certainly been much more successful this go around.Right? The stock has been elevated way beyond what it was in the dot-com bubble, and has stayed elevated and hasn't cratered. 102 00:18:32.330 --> 00:18:46.330 Um, but m- my concern is just th- th- there gets to a p- there's going to be a point where the music stops for this strategy, and, uh, uh, we're just kind of all waiting to see when and when that is and what causes the music to stop. 103 00:18:46.370 --> 00:18:54.620 [upbeat music] Hey, Will here with Blockspace Media. Did you know that we have individual feeds for all our shows? 104 00:18:54.930 --> 00:19:05.890 If you're watching the Mining Pod, Bitcoin Season 2, or the Court Show, be sure to check out the individual feeds. You can find them on your podcast player of choice, whether that be Spotify, Apple, YouTube, et cetera. 105 00:19:06.410 --> 00:19:12.790 Just type in Blockspace Media and you'll find all our shows pop up. Or just type in the individual show name, like the Mining Pod or Bitcoin Season 2. 106 00:19:13.050 --> 00:19:27.570 Be sure to hit that subscribe and give us a five-star rating so we can continue to bring you the best content in Bitcoin. I have some, uh, tweet- some memeing tweets to pull up. 107 00:19:27.610 --> 00:19:41.770 First of all, um, if you remember the different stock tickers, Colin, they are STRF, STRC, [laughs] STRK, STRD, which you can spell out in your head. And then another one would be... 108 00:19:41.910 --> 00:19:53.630 I think this is actually a really interesting tweet. I'm interested to, to get your thought on this, Colin. This is from Jeff Walton, I would say the poster child of MicroStrategy, um, schemers and fanboys. 109 00:19:53.820 --> 00:20:07.970 He says, "Imagining a future where all equities are tokenized." Huh, that's not a, that's not a crazy thing to say for crypto people. He says, "Would STRC then be a USDT and USDC killer?" 110 00:20:09.770 --> 00:20:22.710 And I guess he means from like a yield standpoint, like the comparatively stable, uh, asset which then spins off some yield. So, uh- I don't understand this at all. I don't... 111 00:20:22.920 --> 00:20:32.150 And, and I would love- Maybe you're not far enough down the Jeff Walton, Hunter Jeff rabbit hole. Well, I know who Jeff Walton is, but this to me, what do you mean USDT and USDC killer? 112 00:20:32.730 --> 00:20:40.150 Well, his- Do you know what I mean? Like, people are gonna be using Scratch for cross board- Well, no. [laughs] You go to the store, pay, buy a coffee with S, with STRC. 113 00:20:40.550 --> 00:20:51.450 I think he, I think he's referring to, I think he's referring to, like, the interest, uh, bearing components of it, because you can hold like Tether or other stable coins- Oh, yeah, I see... and they... Yeah. 114 00:20:51.470 --> 00:21:02.250 But even that kinda doesn't make sense to me- [laughs]... because Tether is soaking up that yield. They're the ones who hold the dollar, dollar instruments. That's not- Yeah... passed on to holders of the stable coins. 115 00:21:02.320 --> 00:21:10.760 So I, I- Yeah... just the analogy doesn't make any sense. Colin, you, Colin, you are, you passed the test. You're sufficiently immune, because this is- [laughs]... 116 00:21:10.790 --> 00:21:24.870 this is the person on the other side of the trade if you're short MicroStrategy, and they can stay retarded longer than you can stay solvent. [laughs] Maybe we'll have to bleep that out, but you know what I mean. Yeah. 117 00:21:25.050 --> 00:21:38.190 I mean, all, all, all love to Jeff. He's, he's got- Yeah... some good content out there on these things. But I, I do think that that's what's... Th- th- this is taking, um... This is like the Tesla-ization of equities 118 00:21:39.170 --> 00:21:45.290 that we're seeing with strategy in the Bitcoin treasury companies, and it's very a Bitcoinization thing in equities too, and you could... 119 00:21:45.350 --> 00:21:59.450 I guess you would maybe argue that the Tesla is the Bitcoinization of equities first. But like, these stocks are becoming a kind of, uh, you know, I, I don't wanna say... They're, it's not culty, but it's a little culty. 120 00:21:59.830 --> 00:22:01.370 It's becoming- No, they're cult. They're a cult stock... a part of someone's like... 121 00:22:02.050 --> 00:22:11.210 I, yeah, it's, but it's becoming like a religious identity for these people, or at least they, they are religiously attached to these- Colin, Colin, we w- Colin, we work in Bitcoin. This- I know... this is native to it. 122 00:22:11.690 --> 00:22:20.910 But that's, but at least that's kinda cool. It's like- Yeah. [laughs]... I can memorize my wallet seed phrase and I can, you know, escape the country I live in and still store my wealth. 123 00:22:21.030 --> 00:22:35.690 I can buy things allegedly on underground markets, allegedly on the alleged dark web. Um, I can transact peer-to-peer without intermediaries, but I just can't get excited about stocks that are financial entities. 124 00:22:35.730 --> 00:22:40.469 Like, stonks are just not gonna get me out of bed, man. I'm not gonna be like, "You know what I'm gonna do today? 125 00:22:40.710 --> 00:22:54.390 I'm going to die on this hill for Michael Saylor so he can buy another yacht and have parties in his mansion in Miami." I just... It doesn't, it doesn't get the juices going. 126 00:22:54.590 --> 00:23:10.870 See, I want Michael Saylor to buy my JPEG bags. Maybe if you frame it like that, then, then maybe we can be pro this. Okay, so let us review, like, um, where this sits in the context of things. 127 00:23:10.930 --> 00:23:24.090 You know, unburdened by what has been, we're just gonna look to [laughs] what's happening right now, um, which is, uh, our boy Charles Edwards with Capriel Investments. 128 00:23:24.390 --> 00:23:35.510 He's a fun kinda OG, like, on-chain and, like, a- analyst who blew up. Um, you may remember him. Colin and I remember him from his hashrate ribbon days. 129 00:23:35.550 --> 00:23:43.250 That was a fun chart from back in the day, um, projecting Bitcoin hashrate, like, uh, y- uh, squeeze moments. 130 00:23:43.790 --> 00:24:00.850 So he has, um, just today on Thursday, metrics tracking Bitcoin treasury companies, and he posted some of these, um, he posted some of these publicly, and they help give context for, like, why it seems like everyone is spinning up a Bitcoin treasury. 131 00:24:01.260 --> 00:24:15.590 And the answer is, it's not just in your head, it's true. Um, everyone is spinning up a Bitcoin treasury just by sheer number of ones that exist. You know, two years ago, there were, like, 10. 132 00:24:16.590 --> 00:24:22.710 And it was like, if one showed up every, uh, you know, few months, that would be significant. 133 00:24:23.430 --> 00:24:48.226 But something happened at the beginning of 2024, where we started to see a, an increasing amountOf companies announce Bitcoin treasuries that really picked up at the beginning, beginning of this year, 2025, to where, um, at the beginning of 2025, we saw a hund- a ba- a ballpark 100 companies announcing Bitcoin treasury strategy. 134 00:24:49.266 --> 00:25:04.366 And since then, we've climbed to about 145, and I don't see any reason why this doesn't stop. I mean, if you're looking at this, this is a parabola. So this is a classic parabolic advance of Bitcoin treasury companies, 135 00:25:05.266 --> 00:25:18.726 um, and then I think, you know, he has a few-- several charts. Um- Yeah. There are some interesting ones to zoom in on here. Um, this, this second one, the treasury buyers per day is kinda nuts. Yeah. 136 00:25:18.766 --> 00:25:30.266 And this makes you very bullish. Like, okay, uh- Does it? Does it? Well, I mean, it makes you bullish maybe on the price of Bitcoin in the near term. That's true. 137 00:25:30.646 --> 00:25:41.306 This, this, the hockey stick up, though, is making me a little nervous. Now, to be clear, like that... So if you're on video, the blue line is the number of companies 138 00:25:42.366 --> 00:25:57.686 per day that are purchasing Bitcoin as part of a s- a treasury strategy. So it's like, what? It, it peaks at like 3.5 companies. [chuckles] Yeah. And, and sometimes in July or right before July, and it's kinda dipped. 139 00:25:57.706 --> 00:26:03.606 But like, it just absolutely surges in, in 2025. Yeah. 140 00:26:03.626 --> 00:26:17.446 We're seeing, um, over the course of Bitcoin, over the course of 2025, the number of treasury companies, which I guess the heuristic is qui- as he says, "The average count of companies in the world that are buying Bitcoin each day." 141 00:26:17.546 --> 00:26:28.046 So in the past six weeks, this has taken off, and we have, on average, more than three companies making a Bitcoin purchase each day. And so these are your institutions, your institutional bid. 142 00:26:28.626 --> 00:26:33.106 We're also seeing, according to the next chart, that no one is selling. 143 00:26:33.866 --> 00:26:53.526 So again, if you're listening, we basically have, um, over the past four to five years, um, some, uh, you know, the price of Bitcoin and, uh, showing that, you know, generally companies are-- Bitcoin treasury companies are buying little bits every other month or so, and, and maybe there's one month where they're selling. 144 00:26:53.926 --> 00:27:03.366 But in 2025, we're seeing a major change where companies are now buying, um, uh, thousand... 145 00:27:03.506 --> 00:27:14.626 tens of thousands of Bitcoin each, uh, month, um, sometimes peaking at, you know, thirty-eight, thirty-nine thousand Bitcoin a month, and they're not selling it. 146 00:27:15.006 --> 00:27:24.066 So these are companies who are, at least to date, holders of Bitcoin, and they're buying it in size. This is a very-- This is the chart. 147 00:27:24.146 --> 00:27:37.996 We've talked about this kind of chart, um, in previous episodes of Writer's Room, especially when we talked about the, um, Bitcoin flow of who owns Bitcoin, um, in the, in a, in a previous episode. 148 00:27:38.646 --> 00:27:51.286 This chart shows the total Bitcoin held by all institutions, including ETFs, and we are seeing that this tracks near perfectly with the price of Bitcoin since 2024. 149 00:27:51.986 --> 00:28:04.886 So, um, whether it's causation or correlation, um, the Bitcoin treasury companies appear to be the primary drivers of bidding Bitcoin up. Now, that's a pretty important thing- And I would caveat that, uh- Yeah. 150 00:28:05.206 --> 00:28:15.526 Yeah...ETFs and treasury companies. ETFs, yeah. Yeah, 'cause this, it says ETFs hold one point two nine five million Bitcoin as of this chart's posting. 151 00:28:16.526 --> 00:28:27.206 Treasury companies hold eight hundred and eighty-five thousand nine hundred and twenty-two Bitcoin. And in total, all these entities own about two or hold two point one eight million Bitcoin. 152 00:28:27.566 --> 00:28:32.606 That's ten percent of the Bitcoin supply, as Charles mentions in the next tweet. 153 00:28:33.106 --> 00:28:53.906 Yeah, and if you remember, uh, from the report we reviewed a couple months ago on, like, Bitcoin flows, um, there was kind of like this striking one-liner, which is we saw Bitcoin attributed to individual users decline by five hundred thousand, and Bitcoin attributed to, uh, ownership by institutions increase by five hundred thousand. 154 00:28:53.966 --> 00:29:11.706 It was a direct one-to-one, like, uh, outflow/inflow. Of course, that was for 2024. I bet you that would be more so once we get the data for 2025. So going on to the [clears throat] next chart. Um, yeah. 155 00:29:11.866 --> 00:29:24.586 Here's a crazy one. Institutional holdings are a quarter of a trillion dollars. That's two hundred and forty, two hundred and fifty billion dollars USD that are held at institutions. 156 00:29:24.626 --> 00:29:34.746 Okay, here's the one you were referencing, which is institutional holdings by market cap. The total percentage of Bitcoin supply held by institutions has breached ten percent for the first time ever. 157 00:29:35.326 --> 00:29:50.706 That is up from four percent eighteen months ago. So, like, this is just, uh, a percentage of Bitcoin supply, which is held by your, uh, institutions. So this is institutional buying per day, 158 00:29:52.046 --> 00:30:04.746 um, and the chart, uh, shows the daily percentage of all Bitcoin in existence that is being acquired by institutions per day in blue, and that is currently ten times higher than the Bitcoin mining supply growth rate in red. 159 00:30:05.406 --> 00:30:16.366 Uh, and he says, "Notice how every time institutional buying has exceeded the supply growth rate, the supply growth rate price went vertical." So, I mean, th-this is like, you know, is classic supply and demand. 160 00:30:16.426 --> 00:30:27.256 This is basically the stock-to-flow argument. These institutions are hoovering up more Bitcoin than are mined per day. And as you can see in, in this screenshot, if you are, 161 00:30:28.226 --> 00:30:44.898 if you are on video, at the end of 2025, when Bitcoin, you know, surges to a hundred thousand dollars, you can see this blue band just go absolutely vertical.And, um, you know, kind of basically furnishing that run, uh, right during and after the election. 162 00:30:44.958 --> 00:31:00.538 He says, Charles Edwards says, "Strap in." So I'm strapping in, Charles. Strap in. Strap in. Not strap on. Yeah. Maybe that too. Bad joke. Yeah. 163 00:31:01.778 --> 00:31:08.598 [both laughing] Um, and then we have another chart. Okay, there are two more charts I expected. He has an institutional buying per day according to Coinbase. 164 00:31:09.278 --> 00:31:19.128 We have back in twenty twenty-four that init- nish- initial pulse from like twenty, twenty thousand up to like sixty-something thousand. Like, you rem- you remember that? 165 00:31:19.188 --> 00:31:23.918 That was like the first shot across the bow that the bear market is over. 166 00:31:23.978 --> 00:31:31.398 Then we had another one beginning, or right before twenty twenty-five, end of twenty-four, and then, um, one which has been, uh, over the course of the spring. 167 00:31:31.458 --> 00:31:38.318 And each of these kind of like pulses where Bitcoin gets boring, boring, boring, and then kind of shoots upward over the course of like a few weeks, 168 00:31:39.238 --> 00:31:55.738 these have appeared-- these are coincided, likely driven by the institutional buying as a percentage of Coinbase volume. Um, it's wild to see. Um, I do love a good bullish chart. Uh, 169 00:31:57.078 --> 00:32:11.328 I do wonder where all of the cypherpunks have gone. Uh, have they retired? Has-- You know, as Udi Wertimer says, "Have they all sold?" Um, are we now in... 170 00:32:12.278 --> 00:32:26.098 Are now, uh, the suit coiners in the driver's seat? I think that's it. They're still there, but as Bitcoin has grown and more people have come to hold it and use it, 171 00:32:27.478 --> 00:32:44.758 it, it makes total sense to me that in the same way that you had the earlier pioneers of the internet who were like running servers in their home, self-hosting their own email, that they got drowned out by consumer-friendly applications, the same thing is happening to Bitcoin and will continue to happen. 172 00:32:45.438 --> 00:32:57.438 Yeah. Maybe- People really don't care about censorship-resistant, permissionless money. They care about making money, and that's what we're seeing with the pa-paper Bitcoin Summer and with these treasury companies. 173 00:32:57.498 --> 00:33:08.838 I mean, at the end of the day, the dollar rules all, and if you can show people how they can make money from something, they're going to find that much more useful than some of the other benefits that it provides, right? 174 00:33:08.918 --> 00:33:25.398 Especially I think here in the US, it's really hard to convince someone why something like Bitcoin is important, because they haven't had to deal with capital controls, they haven't had to deal with sanctions, they haven't had to deal with all of these things that can make the financial system impossible to use. 175 00:33:25.418 --> 00:33:38.438 And until you're in that situation, Bitcoin's properties, at least the most interesting properties, are not going to be relevant. Yeah. Um, perhaps this is the beginning of the Eternal September. 176 00:33:39.498 --> 00:33:44.138 Um, maybe this is that moment, uh, takeoff moment where, 177 00:33:45.198 --> 00:33:59.578 um, maybe the early users of the internet began to be out-drowned out by the teeming masses who finally got access because of Netscape and AOL, um, basically d-distributing access to the internet. 178 00:33:59.638 --> 00:34:10.118 Now, um, I would argue at that time, Eternal September meant that more people could use the internet. They're still using the internet. Whereas I would say- Mm... uh, Paper Bitcoin Summer, 179 00:34:11.458 --> 00:34:21.918 uh, instead of Eternal September, maybe Paper Bitcoin Summer is a little bit distinguished because I would say they're, uh, not-- they don't really not using Bitcoin. 180 00:34:21.958 --> 00:34:29.438 That's a really good- I'll probably get those words, I'll probably get those words shoved down my gullet somewhere down the road because- No, I think that's a good-... I think that's using it as a pristine capital asset. 181 00:34:29.858 --> 00:34:39.838 Yeah. I mean, someone will say that. Yeah. And it's a good distinction. Uh, to steel man the other side, though, I would say, I think one of the other analogies here would be ownership. 182 00:34:40.518 --> 00:34:49.278 Whereas the early internet was kind of predicated on ownership of user-- Well, it wasn't. There's a lot of things. Mm-hmm. But ownership of user- Number one... data was a huge part of it, right? 183 00:34:49.438 --> 00:34:59.537 And now n- that almost categorically does not exist for most of the things that people use. You know, you don't host your own email, you don't actually own your, your, your email account. 184 00:35:00.058 --> 00:35:08.878 Uh, and that goes, goes on down the line for almost everything we use on the internet. But to your point, you are still using the protocol, you're using the rails that the internet relies on. 185 00:35:09.738 --> 00:35:20.418 And with Bitcoin held in a Fidelity or BlackRock account, you're getting price exposure with none of the benefits of actually holding the asset. You know? 186 00:35:21.308 --> 00:35:31.688 So- It's like imagine if every time you wanted to send an email or query something, you had to go to the library or, or go to- [chuckles] Yeah. What is this, nineteen ninety-eight? Yeah. Or what, what was it, Kinko's? 187 00:35:31.718 --> 00:35:45.878 Wasn't that the printing shop that- Yeah. Kinko's merged with, um, Quick Pr- no, with, uh, like, UPS or something. Anyway, yeah, FedEx. The, yeah. I think FedEx bought Kinko's. Um, so mergers are in our future. 188 00:35:46.498 --> 00:35:58.758 So which conglomerate's gonna buy your paper Bitcoin stock? We will answer that someday in the future. Otherwise, thank you for listening to Bitcoin Season two. Make sure to like and subscribe. 189 00:35:58.818 --> 00:36:15.868 Catch us on the internet, preferably X at, @CBSpears, @AzaleaHodling, and follow the show at BTCSZ in two. Thank you all very much. Bye-bye. Hey, everyone. Charlie here. 190 00:36:16.258 --> 00:36:26.498 We're running a quick survey. We want to better understand who our listeners are. Do me a huge favor and fill out that survey. It takes under a minute, and the link is in the show description. 191 00:36:26.558 --> 00:36:43.378 This helps us make better content for you. Thanks a ton for listening. Link in the show notes. [outro music]