WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:14.690
[laughs] Yo, [laughs] we are back for Bitcoin Season 2 Writers Room. Good morning, Colin. Good afternoon, Mr. Spears. I'm happy to be back. We missed last week 'cause I was traipsing around Yellowstone- Yep...

2
00:00:14.700 --> 00:00:24.600
what early tourists used to call Fairyland, which I thought- Ooh... was super interesting. Um- Well, now we are on opposite sides of the globe. I'm in Amsterdam, uh, the Bitcoin Amsterdam Conference.

3
00:00:24.900 --> 00:00:32.340
You're on the West Coast of the United States. But before we get in there, welcome to Bitcoin Season 2. Bitcoin Season 2 is brought to you by Botanix Labs.

4
00:00:32.439 --> 00:00:44.420
Botanix Labs is pioneering a new direction for DeFi with the first EVM L2 running on Bitcoin that's built to be forward secure, decentralized, and share gas fees generated by the network with users.

5
00:00:44.580 --> 00:00:59.100
See the future of DeFi from Botanix Labs. Go to botanixlabs.xyz. Anyway- Clean ad read. [laughs] Yeah, man, I- this- I'm in, I'm in media now, so. [laughs] No, like, so, uh, we got a couple things.

6
00:00:59.180 --> 00:01:01.269
Um, it's, it's meme coin season again.

7
00:01:01.300 --> 00:01:15.920
If you're the degen watching this, I think you may enjoy the first half of this chat, and on the back half we will revisit, I think, the other, like, spicy, uh, news event in Bitcoin, which is the Swan mining thing, and that'll be a Colin-led chat.

8
00:01:16.420 --> 00:01:25.200
S- so degen's in the front of the bus, maxi's in the back of the bus. Yeah. If you don't give a shit about meme coins, um, then- Fast-forward half an hour... this conversation not for you.

9
00:01:25.340 --> 00:01:32.760
Just wait until the end, or like Charlie said, if you're listening to this after the live stream's over, fast-forward to the end. We're gonna go over some of our coverage of the Swan mining lawsuit.

10
00:01:32.800 --> 00:01:45.020
But meme coins are fun, and they are indicative of a decaying society. So if you're a maxi, this might make sense to you, so you should stick around. Yeah, yeah, so maxis, please don't leave.

11
00:01:45.060 --> 00:01:57.370
And degens, you know, you know, degens, I'm not gonna give you real alpha, but I will give you the tools to produce alpha. [laughs] Thanks, Craig. Craig says- Thank you, Craig... if only Swan was mining memes.

12
00:01:57.370 --> 00:01:58.480
[laughs] Um- If only Swan was mining meme coins, they might have made it.

13
00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:15.920
Well, okay, so, um, let's roll the clock back to bottom of 2018 and, uh, there was a, a, a guy who I think kicked off, like, the Bitcoin maxi podcasting era, and he- Oh...

14
00:02:15.930 --> 00:02:23.180
goes by- Oh, you're gonna give him that much? Yeah, I will. Oh. Actually, let me get my camera in focus. Um, yeah, I will, actually.

15
00:02:23.580 --> 00:02:45.060
If you go back and you listen to Murad Mahmudov's, um, interview with Anthony Pompliano before Anthony launched the Pomp show, Murad had a, an episode called The Case for Bitcoin, and it did numbers at the bottom of that cycle in n- late, night, late 18.

16
00:02:45.680 --> 00:02:53.220
And Murad kind of became, like, the ascendant Bitcoin maxi bull. He gave us, like, the tools and the language.

17
00:02:53.820 --> 00:03:03.019
Go back and re-watch this video, and you'll be like, wow, all the talking points from, like, '19 and '20 and '21, they kind of originate from this.

18
00:03:03.600 --> 00:03:21.580
So this is really interesting because today, in this past week or two, Murad has been the meme coin ascendant. Ansem has handed the torch of, like, meme coin lightning rod to, uh, Murad, 'cause Murad's back.

19
00:03:22.040 --> 00:03:35.269
Why did Murad have to leave? This is an interesting story, but before that I'll just show, um, that this does relate to ordinals somehow, because here we have inscription 137,

20
00:03:36.720 --> 00:03:50.820
which is actually an inscription related to Murad. This is from a chart- No, this is, this is 100, this is one of... the, the 137th inscription. Uh- No, th- Yeah, and disclosure- This-... disclosure, it's mine.

21
00:03:51.060 --> 00:04:06.920
[laughs] This is- [laughs] Okay. Um, I didn't know that. This is in- incredible because this, to me, is a kind of, how do we put it, lower IQ stock to flow chart- Yeah... which is saying a lot, right?

22
00:04:07.020 --> 00:04:17.529
But this is almost in the same vein of this kind of, you know, this kind of hopium chart that doesn't really have any methodology behind it outside of vibes.

23
00:04:17.950 --> 00:04:28.830
That being said, when this was created, this made the rounds on social for, like- But... And this is Murad's chart... like, a year. This is Murad's chart. He- Yeah...

24
00:04:28.880 --> 00:04:41.640
he defined this because he, like, he kinda codified, like, the language to talk about Bitcoin ascending into unit of account. Like, literally, all the maxi-like conversations, like, it begins as a digital collectible.

25
00:04:41.700 --> 00:04:49.060
It gots, it's gotta be Lindy, then it's gotta be a store of value, then a medium exchange, and then it gets to be a unit of account. That comes...

26
00:04:49.140 --> 00:04:55.920
I mean, it was, there were other people who talked about it, but, like, this chart is the thing that really, like, gave it jet fuel.

27
00:04:56.530 --> 00:05:03.640
This is Murad's chart, and it was funny because when ordinals kicked off, I was like, "Well, ordinals, JPEGs, that'll never, like, be a big deal.

28
00:05:04.180 --> 00:05:17.310
Let me make a meme about how ordinals are gonna follow the same path," and here we are. [laughs] Murad is now the meme coin king, and, uh, I have this... Anyway, so- So let's- Yeah...

29
00:05:17.310 --> 00:05:34.900
um, back up a little bit with some history with Murad, because he had a fund in the bear m- in the, in the bear market, not the last bear market, the previous bear market, um, and he was allocating Bitcoin towards, you know, uh, derivatives trading, basically.

30
00:05:34.960 --> 00:05:52.100
He was longing or shorting. We're all still waiting for the call on 1,800 Bitcoin. I- Yeah... big agree, Craig. Yeah. Um, but anyway, so Murad had a fund, and he was longing the shit out of Bitcoin

31
00:05:53.820 --> 00:06:03.660
right before the COVID flash crash of March, what, 13th or 14th, 2020? Um, for those- Uh, March 12th and 13th. I don't remember- March 12th... very well, specifically. [laughs] Well, if...

32
00:06:03.940 --> 00:06:20.072
So for those who weren't around at that time, there was a-Two-day period where Bitcoin started showing signs of weakness, and then within minutes the price tanked from, like, n- eight or 9K down to 4K, and then quickly rebounded up to 5K.

33
00:06:20.412 --> 00:06:32.052
So it lost 50% of its value over the course of, like, 48 hours. And th- and this was incredible because this is when all of the markets were reacting to COVID. There was this shock across all financial markets.

34
00:06:32.292 --> 00:06:39.672
Every asset across the board had this miniature sell-off, and then obviously we know the rest is history. Money printer go brr, everything rips after that.

35
00:06:40.732 --> 00:06:49.152
But because of this, Murad's fund was completely liquidated, and he was blown out, and he just kinda left for- Yeah... two, three years. He...

36
00:06:49.692 --> 00:07:01.912
It was a, it was a whole thing, and he wrote an apology letter, and it was kinda like, it was a very weird moment 'cause he was one of the first real, like, uh, celebrated Bitcoin maxis to just get absolutely liquidated.

37
00:07:01.952 --> 00:07:08.752
And it, and, like, I think a lot of us felt for him, but also that was one of the first, like, public demonstrations in recent memory, really.

38
00:07:08.792 --> 00:07:18.572
The first public demonstration of, like, you can be long Bitcoin, but you can still screw it up. Yeah. So, um- Right... he went silent for a couple years.

39
00:07:19.212 --> 00:07:31.952
Yeah, he just, he disappeared, and now he's back, and he's betting big on meme coins. He wants to make it back on one massive trade. [laughs] It's not, it's not one.

40
00:07:32.002 --> 00:07:34.862
It's actually a, he has an index of- It's like a suite... multiple coins, yeah.

41
00:07:34.862 --> 00:07:52.982
Yeah, so it's crazy 'cause, like, he, he, he's a very, very compelling speaker, and he put this, uh, uh, it, he put this, like, uh, talk at Token 2049 together, which went, did the numbers and did the rounds, and it will probably be credited with, like, the, you know, the catalyst- [laughs]...

42
00:07:53.012 --> 00:08:04.232
for kicking off the non-Bitcoin meme cycle. And he's got his, um, tokens, and it got really big, and people say, like, "Oh, he's the new Ansem." And it kind of is, like, appearing that way.

43
00:08:04.512 --> 00:08:07.612
Um, but- So when you say the new Ansem, can you, um, explain what you mean by that?

44
00:08:07.692 --> 00:08:29.212
Yeah, Ansem, or, uh, Z or Zion, is a well-known Twitter personality, um, has, was, like, the famously s- uh, bullish on Solana at the bottom in '22 or maybe '23, and he's k- he's kind of become a larger than life character, and he's, uh, synonymous with meme coins and Solana.

45
00:08:29.952 --> 00:08:38.892
People love and hate him, and I think more people love him, so he's, he's, he's right at the absolute edge of meme culture. So now it's Murad, um,

46
00:08:39.832 --> 00:08:51.892
and notable, and I'll try to keep this brief 'cause it is a little, um, little dicey. So on-chain sleuth ZachXBT, I want to share this tab instead.

47
00:08:52.512 --> 00:09:06.401
ZachXBT, who tracks people down as a main brand, tracked down what are probably Murad's wallets. I won't get into them 'cause it's a little, I don't know how I feel about, uh, doing this right now.

48
00:09:06.401 --> 00:09:15.272
This is a strange move from Zach. I, I- Yeah... I'm not really, uh, I think this is a little bit unethical. Like, you know, I guess maybe Zach's...

49
00:09:15.412 --> 00:09:23.021
So ZachXBT is the premier on-chain sleuth gumshoe on crypto Twitter, prob- or well, just anything, right? Yeah.

50
00:09:23.052 --> 00:09:32.792
So for anyone who doesn't know, he does these amazing investigations where he will typically try to use, he'll use chain analysis to tie addresses to certain bad actors, things like that.

51
00:09:32.872 --> 00:09:44.271
He's won a bunch of different bounties for doing this. Um, for, but for, this is strange, 'cause usually he does it for, like, hacked funds or socially engineered- Yeah... you know, um, wallet drains, things like that.

52
00:09:44.332 --> 00:09:47.272
So I don't know if Zach knows something about Murad that we don't.

53
00:09:47.292 --> 00:09:56.802
I don't know, may- maybe he just doesn't like the, the posturing that Murad takes, if he thinks that it's unethical what he's doing in terms of trying to pump meme coin bags or, you know, what he, you know.

54
00:09:56.942 --> 00:10:08.832
I, I don't know what it is. But this, this seems not, dubious to me. It's like the dude's not really doing anything. Why are you doxing his wallets? I, I find that to be a little bit questionable, uh, you know. But

55
00:10:10.032 --> 00:10:20.692
not my life. I, I just wouldn't do it. It definitely is great for engagement. I mean, look, like, 9.7K likes. Yeah. Nearly 5K- But-... bookmarks. I mean, he, you know. Yeah.

56
00:10:21.072 --> 00:10:35.352
So I wanna, I wanna get past this, but yeah, like, we know what are probably Murad's, the lion's share of Murad's holdings, and it's, it kinda lines up with what he, uh, the specific tokens he says have, like, you know, schizo vibes in the chat, cult-like behavior.

57
00:10:35.612 --> 00:10:48.232
So anyway, this is interesting. Um, this brings us to, uh, let me, where's my train of thought? Um, this brings us to, like,

58
00:10:49.432 --> 00:11:09.732
the, the thesis that I have that I would invite Murad to, one, come on the show 'cause we wanna talk to you, and, 'cause I think we could have a really interesting conversation, but two, you can do meme coins on Bitcoin now, and they are the subject of a lot of criticism and scrutiny, but, like, bro, you can do both here.

59
00:11:10.172 --> 00:11:16.052
And meme coins on, on Bitcoin, runes and other fungible tokens, are up big this week.

60
00:11:16.672 --> 00:11:34.652
I actually have a thesis, and I'll try to kinda put it together here, which is a lot of people c- uh, say, "Oh, these, these token, these meme coins on, these shitcoins on Bitcoin, like, they haven't done well to date because, um, Bitcoin structurally doesn't work very well to trade these assets back and forth."

61
00:11:35.252 --> 00:11:47.052
To which I have multiple times said, "Yes, currently it's a little clunky to do this." We've written about it on, in our newsletter, like batch size and, and tranching them correctly, whatever.

62
00:11:47.972 --> 00:12:01.212
Um, but if you adopt Murad's view that actually friction to sell these assets is a- Is a good thing... yeah, it's a good thing, this lines up very well, Murad.

63
00:12:01.292 --> 00:12:18.788
I'm speaking to you here that, uh, Bitcoin's actually the, the confluence of all of your theses-And you can come back, you can recapture the Bitcoin narrative and the meme coin narrative at the same time.

64
00:12:18.868 --> 00:12:29.448
Because these assets are clunkier to trade, they do, uh, they do naturally, uh, lend themselves to cult-like, uh, frictioned in and out behavior. So-

65
00:12:30.448 --> 00:12:43.628
You're trying to bring- This is my- You're trying to bring chaos to the land of milk and honey, my man. Yeah, man. You're trying to bring hellfire and brimstone to Zion. Like- Exactly. So anyway, um, I get...

66
00:12:43.728 --> 00:12:51.828
I see what you're saying, and this is an interesting point because when you think about... So I think for a lot of people, when they think about m- tokens or meme coins,

67
00:12:52.937 --> 00:13:03.228
there's a very specific image in mind of the things that you trade sp- really now on Solana, maybe a little bit of Ethereum, but the token contract is central to that.

68
00:13:03.248 --> 00:13:16.848
It's like it's, it's a whole other coin compared to the network that it exists on. With runes and, and their predecessor BRC20, y- um, how to put it, you don't have the same level of concretion for a token collection.

69
00:13:16.908 --> 00:13:26.908
Do you know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. It's like there's not the same backbone to it. That being said, functionally, it is indistinguishable. Yeah. And this is something that took me a while to kind of wrap my mind around.

70
00:13:27.008 --> 00:13:30.288
I was like, okay, well, these are fungible tokens, but they're not really tokens.

71
00:13:30.908 --> 00:13:40.788
Um, it doesn't really matter, especially in the case of runes, 'cause if the opportune data is there indexing these things, and you're minting them, it's the same function.

72
00:13:41.428 --> 00:13:50.938
That being said, you know, going back to not only are, you know, can I hear the hordes of maximalists who might be tuning in, you know- You're- Getting their pitchforks and their AR-15s ready.

73
00:13:50.938 --> 00:14:00.428
You have worn out the welcome, Rich. You're halfway excommunicated here. Yeah. [laughs] Just for even talking to me about this, yeah. Exactly. Um, but, you know, I think that going back to your...

74
00:14:00.708 --> 00:14:13.348
So going back to one of your points about the, um, difficulty, the friction to sell helps with illiquidity, which helps with price action and volatility, I think that makes sense.

75
00:14:13.808 --> 00:14:25.708
That being said, I don't think that the meme coin mania, at least in terms of volumes, will ever reach Bitcoin in the way that it has on Solana, for a number of reasons.

76
00:14:25.748 --> 00:14:32.128
Like, I think number one, the first use case of Solana is meme coins at this point. Like, that's... I don't think anyone who's- Yeah... tuned in would dispute that. Yeah.

77
00:14:32.188 --> 00:14:39.768
I, I don't even think maybe people working on Solana [laughs] would dispute that. You know? Yeah. They embrace it. Yeah. Yeah, right? I mean, that's, skate to where the puck's going.

78
00:14:39.848 --> 00:14:51.277
If that's what people wanna use your chain for and that's where the money is, then yeah, go for it. The other thing too is I do think that there is a friction issue here, not just from the design standpoint or, or...

79
00:14:51.308 --> 00:15:02.378
Sorry, not just from, um, Bitcoin's limitations, which we love Bitcoin for. You know, I don't want block times to be greater than 10 minutes. Um, I- you know, the design is, is...

80
00:15:02.428 --> 00:15:10.988
It's designed the way it is for, to be robust, to be censorship resistant, to be low latency or to be, uh, low data, uh, for the blocks to be less data heavy.

81
00:15:11.318 --> 00:15:17.448
All that being said, I don't even think that's necessarily the issue. I think it's also just the design issue of all of these things.

82
00:15:17.468 --> 00:15:24.578
Like runes, even though they're an improvement over BRC20, are just like a super complicated way of issuing tokens on Bitcoin.

83
00:15:25.038 --> 00:15:36.148
I think that there are a lot of reasons why the meme coin craze will never fully come to Bitcoin. That being said, to your point, runes are up, so degens will degens.

84
00:15:36.388 --> 00:15:41.168
I do think that there's a limit though, because Bitcoin has clear use cases outside of this.

85
00:15:41.188 --> 00:15:55.688
This is also why I think a lot of the fears about ordinals and inscriptions are overblown with people, because at the end of the day, the real monetary use cases of Bitcoin are more salient and are more impactful than- Yeah...

86
00:15:55.728 --> 00:16:03.858
than, than collectibles. And so people are just going to- If Bitcoin succeeds... Yeah, if Bitcoin succeeds, it's gonna price out the more frivolous activity on chain. But in the meantime- Right...

87
00:16:03.888 --> 00:16:08.408
I'm going to yeet my runes, I'm going to inscribe, uh, dumb arbitrary data.

88
00:16:09.008 --> 00:16:24.628
But yeah, like if, if Bitcoin it- does become this centrality of the monetary system in some capacity, like that value dramatically supersedes that of, of 10,000 monkey JPEGs. Yep. Yep.

89
00:16:24.728 --> 00:16:28.687
Now, of course, what is it, Gresham's law, bad money drives out good money? Yeah.

90
00:16:28.778 --> 00:16:37.268
[laughs] Like that, but actually kind of flies in the face of this, and I do think that the HODL culture in Bitcoin, which I'm not knocking, that's, you know...

91
00:16:37.458 --> 00:16:41.798
I, I use Bitcoin as a savings account, so I'm, I'm firmly in that camp that this is a use case.

92
00:16:42.488 --> 00:16:55.288
But if people aren't moving their coins or making other transactions and the people who are speculating on and gambling on degen assets are, then there obviously will be periods where, you know, we have already seen this, right?

93
00:16:55.308 --> 00:16:59.498
Yeah. I mean, using the chain in Q4 of last year was a fucking nightmare- [laughs] Oh my God, yeah...

94
00:16:59.508 --> 00:17:08.148
because of all the people buying BRC20 tokens, which, you know, going back to people sh- people in the maximalist camp shit on Casey. Thank God for Casey Rodarmor.

95
00:17:08.488 --> 00:17:22.348
Thank God for BRC or for, for runes, because it completely- Yeah, like, like, um- If you look at the runes transaction volume and you look at the fees, there's just a clear correlation that this, that this completely- The UTXO set is decreasing.

96
00:17:22.378 --> 00:17:31.288
Yeah. The BRC20, uh, dust outputs are being consolidated right now. It's been one of the major, like, uh, block space events over the past couple weeks.

97
00:17:31.348 --> 00:17:43.428
Like, this was very clearly and explicitly defined, you know, communicated by Casey, "I don't like the damage that BRC20 is doing. It was an un- unintended, unanticipated consequence of my, of my idea.

98
00:17:44.128 --> 00:17:55.928
I want to, uh, hot swap this out with something less ridiculous." It has tacit and explicit, um, endorsement from other, like, pretty hardcore Bitcoin people and Bitcoin researchers.

99
00:17:56.008 --> 00:18:12.908
Um, for example, Mononaut over at mempool.space confirmed this past week that, um, the consolidations from BRC20s are improving the UTXO set and that runes are not, uh, uh, seem to have no adverse effects outside of adding, um, fees to Bitcoin.

100
00:18:13.188 --> 00:18:26.892
So-Like, this is great. I'll actually then, in response to Gresham's law, I'll say it's, uh, Charlie's law, which is [laughs] Um, long-term valuable use of block space will drive out frivolous use of block space. Yeah.

101
00:18:26.932 --> 00:18:37.632
Uh- Turn that shit on its head. Good degen tokens drive out bad degen [laughs] tokens. Right. Yeah. Um- Yeah. So, uh, yeah, that's the, that's kinda my thesis.

102
00:18:37.732 --> 00:18:52.372
And runes are up this week again by association of being in the broader meme coin category. If you look at Magician, like, the top 50 runes, like, 40, 45 of them are up tremendous, like, in some cases, multiples. So

103
00:18:53.352 --> 00:18:57.612
this is fun. Um, are runes back? Well, they are this week.

104
00:18:58.072 --> 00:19:08.592
I don't know what happens next, but- You know, y- the question that comes to mind for me is the inscriptions, in general, have been up over the last couple of weeks.

105
00:19:09.452 --> 00:19:17.282
We've seen all of the blue chip collections nearly double in price. They've kind of retraced a little bit, but they were... kind of hit a local bottom, and then they rebounded.

106
00:19:17.991 --> 00:19:27.872
Now, a lot of that money seems to be getting cycled into, you know, uh, fungible tokens, and also meme coins are going up.

107
00:19:28.172 --> 00:19:50.042
I just wonder, is this a leading indicator for Bitcoin, or is this kind of traders looking for any sort of catalyst because Bitcoin has been in a range between 50 to 70K basically all year, which if we stop and think about it, is kind of impressive that we have been in this channel for so long, right?

108
00:19:50.062 --> 00:20:01.192
People have lived and died a thousand deaths, and Bitcoin's sat in the same 15% ran- 20% range for the past six months. Like- Yeah. You gotta love it. Yeah. You know? Yeah. [laughs] You...

109
00:20:01.232 --> 00:20:10.582
It, it, it inspires some level of confidence, but obviously Bitcoin can do whatever and, you know, it may be at the end of this... We're wind- It's kind of like a spring being wound, right?

110
00:20:10.712 --> 00:20:20.272
And either the spring really s- spring- A beach ball underwater, one might say. Or [laughs] yeah, or the spring just completely degrades and falls apart.

111
00:20:20.292 --> 00:20:31.652
But anyway, all that being said, I can't help but wonder if all the meme coin mania is something of a leading indicator because, you know, in, in traditional cycles, like bull cycles, you have this

112
00:20:32.712 --> 00:20:38.572
inverse relation between Bitcoin pumps and dumps and meme coin and shitcoin pumps and dumps, right?

113
00:20:38.712 --> 00:20:57.532
So Bitcoin will pump, and then it will retrace because all of those profits or some of those profits from the traders are being rolled into riskier bets and lower cap alt- I actually have an opinion on this, in that this is an interesting, um, uh, uh, uh, unrelated cyclicality to Bitcoin's block space.

114
00:20:58.012 --> 00:21:05.052
So rather it does not affect Bitcoin's price as much, but rather it does affect Bitcoin transaction activity and therefore fees.

115
00:21:05.272 --> 00:21:14.472
I think this is a story of Bitcoin's fee market discovering a relationship to other fee markets and other blockchains and less about Bitcoin the base asset.

116
00:21:14.832 --> 00:21:21.412
Where I think we may have a situation where Bitcoin pumps, and then it flows into these other Bitcoin beta type assets.

117
00:21:21.892 --> 00:21:30.202
But largely, I think these beta type assets are more related to the secular shitcoin liquidity, shitquidity, if you will- [laughs]...

118
00:21:30.232 --> 00:21:40.342
which will go up and then be the marginal buyer of these JPEGs and marginal inscriber, if you will. And so I think this is a very interesting phenomenon. This is...

119
00:21:40.412 --> 00:21:56.452
I've talked about, I've kinda tried to describe this view that I have on a few different places, but I think, I think this is, um, a cycle which will behave very differently than the Bitcoin to Ethereum to low cap alts to shitcoin, uh, meta that people have defined.

120
00:21:56.592 --> 00:22:09.132
So- Hmm... pin that up there. So we've talked about meme coins. Murad, come on the pod. Thank, thank God we got that. [laughs] Only spent 23 minutes doing it.

121
00:22:09.832 --> 00:22:15.932
Let's switch to if you are still a Bitcoiner [laughs] and still a... If you're a more hardcore maxi and you, and, and- [laughs]...

122
00:22:16.012 --> 00:22:23.972
you made it through, you waded this pile of shit, let's talk about something which is perhaps more material. Colin has been

123
00:22:24.912 --> 00:22:39.252
boots on the ground, dialed the hell in to the breaking mining story right now, which is the Swan mining saga. Colin, we didn't cover it last week on the pod. Catch me up to speed. Yeah.

124
00:22:39.412 --> 00:22:48.472
So sharing my screen here for those who are on audio. So if you want to look at the article, uh, you can hop on, uh, YouTube. You can also find it at blockspace.media.

125
00:22:49.052 --> 00:22:57.852
Article I'm looking at is new filings raise question about mining ownership and law- and Swan lawsuit. So to back up a little bit, Swan filed a lawsuit

126
00:22:58.932 --> 00:23:09.572
against former employees and contractors on September 26, alleging that they stole highly proprietary and confidential Bitcoin mining business technology, trade secrets, property, and personnel.

127
00:23:10.312 --> 00:23:24.712
Their lawsuit kind of hinges on the specific part of the mining business, which is Swan's BNOC, which was a dashboard that seems pretty rudimentary and seems pretty kind of run-of-the-mill in terms of what you would monitor from a mining side.

128
00:23:24.752 --> 00:23:31.192
Looks at the hash rate. It looks at, you know, all of your different machines and their health and all this other stuff. I've actually not seen the BNOC.

129
00:23:31.212 --> 00:23:35.502
I've only seen screenshots of it, but the case seems to hinge on them stealing that.

130
00:23:36.002 --> 00:23:48.472
But basically what happened was Swan files this lawsuit because everyone related to their Bitcoin mining business that they launched in 2023 left, uh, between Oct- between August 8th and August 9th.

131
00:23:48.972 --> 00:23:57.272
Then they went to Tether, which was the joint venture partner with Swan's mining business. Tether funded the entire thing actually.

132
00:23:57.332 --> 00:24:07.212
And they went to Tether, established a new business called Proton Management, and then basically took over operations. Now, Swan files a lawsuit saying that this is basically akin to a corporate coup.

133
00:24:07.692 --> 00:24:10.712
They totally stole all of their mining business, yada, yada, yada.

134
00:24:11.832 --> 00:24:41.160
Well, an opposition filing that obviously negates-And denies a lot of these allegations from Swan, from Proton Management, and the ex-employees and contractors say that none of this is real, that they didn't steal anything and that in fact the stuff that they did take, because Swan alleges that they downloaded a bunch of stuff from their GitHub, was never really Swan's to begin with because Swan had a minority stake in the joint venture, which is known as Twenty Forty Energy.

135
00:24:42.300 --> 00:24:46.520
So the joint venture between Swan and Tether is Twenty Forty Energy.

136
00:24:46.790 --> 00:25:00.070
That's what managed the entire mining operation, and in the opposition filing they say that Swan never had any Bitcoin mining business to begin with, and the direct quote from the filing is, "Swan does not have a mining business of its own.

137
00:25:00.620 --> 00:25:05.430
What Swan has called its mining business is really just a separate entity called Twenty Forty Energy."

138
00:25:06.040 --> 00:25:22.640
Instead, they claim that it only owns a minority stake, and in fact, a- an investor presentation that Blockspace obtained from Swan for its Series C that it started raising for on July 11th of this year admits that Tether owns 80% of the venture and Swan owns 20%.

139
00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:36.060
So that alone just raises a lot of different questions regarding what the actual ownership structure was and who is in the wrong or in the right here.

140
00:25:36.140 --> 00:25:48.180
I don't wanna make any value judgments, but, uh, you know, from my perspective from doing this, it seems as though Swan really does not have a legal claim over this. Again, I'm not a lawyer.

141
00:25:48.540 --> 00:25:57.100
There are a lot of new-- There's a lot of information that needs to come to light before we can totally make sense of this, and I'm sure we'll get more as the court proceedings continue.

142
00:25:57.820 --> 00:26:09.220
But it, it, it seems like Tether bankrolled the entire thing and that they own 80% of it. Now, one more important point here too, and I'm actually gonna share my screen again.

143
00:26:09.600 --> 00:26:26.899
So sorry, Charlie, I'm going on a- Go for it... on your [crosstalking] Do it. Ramp. I, yeah, this is good. Um, uh, okay. This is strange. Um, sorry, guys. Uh, here, hang on.

144
00:26:27.380 --> 00:26:37.560
I need to- Feel free to- I, I need to get another, uh- Yeah. So anyway, you, you-- I'll let you poke around while I talk to people. Uh, call to action time.

145
00:26:37.640 --> 00:26:48.220
If you're watching this, [chuckles] uh, go to our social media, blockspace.media, the website, subscribe to the newsletter, hit our other content verticals, the Goward Show, the Mining Pod.

146
00:26:48.240 --> 00:27:00.500
Make sure you're liked and subscribed to Bitcoin Season Two everywhere you stream anything. Um, and we have a new podcast, Bitcoin Fi Pod, under our Blockspace Media umbrella, featuring Jan and Yogi.

147
00:27:01.200 --> 00:27:10.480
Um, thank you Xverse and Meso for making this happen. This is a pretty interesting podcast. I think you'll get some of the more like, um, the people deploying capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

148
00:27:10.600 --> 00:27:23.400
So that rounds out kind of the suite of Blockspace produced products pretty well, and we just had the latest one with a guy from the Draper Fund. Draper's been deploying capital like crazy.

149
00:27:23.440 --> 00:27:37.210
I'm actually here in Amsterdam right now, and they had a whole like side event with a bunch of the movers and shakers and capital deployers. And so, uh, that's an interesting podcast. Make sure you check it out.

150
00:27:37.260 --> 00:27:50.060
How we doing, Colin? Um, almost done. That was a really good filler [laughs]. Thank you. Oh, I can feel it. Yeah. Um, yeah. Um- Thank you for that. Hang on. I'm almost, almost there. Hey, okay.

151
00:27:50.420 --> 00:27:53.480
I mean the, um-- For anyone like, uh, I'll just kinda riff a little bit here.

152
00:27:53.560 --> 00:28:08.240
Like, you know, if, if you're a Dejian, you've stuck it around through Colin's kind of trudging, uh, uh, deep dive on some of like the obscure warts of the mining business, like this is pretty significant in the grand narrative of things.

153
00:28:08.460 --> 00:28:22.160
Swan Financial is kind of one of the, I would say, hegemon of the, of like the Bitcoin discourse. They've been pretty-- They've been almost equally a media company as they have been a financial services company. Yeah.

154
00:28:22.220 --> 00:28:31.020
They've been- So like... Yeah. They've been dominant with media. I mean, Swan Signal, most of our listeners have probably tuned into it- Yeah... have tuned into it before. They've created amazing content.

155
00:28:31.220 --> 00:28:42.129
Um, some amazing analysts like Sam Callahan, shout out to him. He's got a really good newsletter on Nathalie Brunel's Coin Stories. Check it out. Highly recommend. Yeah. Great macro newsletter.

156
00:28:42.420 --> 00:28:49.490
They have amazing- And they've got great engineers. Like I talked to the Swan engineers- Yeah... and they're absolutely kickass. Like I love- Yeah... those guys. Love- So, and yeah.

157
00:28:49.490 --> 00:28:57.380
They- Love a lot of people involved in Swan. I don't want it t- this to turn into a Swan shit fest. Uh- Yeah. Yeah... I do think there are questions to raise about management here because...

158
00:28:57.520 --> 00:29:07.900
I, I can't share my screen right now because I'm on a different Google account, and I can't log into our, uh, news- newsletter, um, facing stuff on the website. RIP. Anyway, I'm gonna... RIP.

159
00:29:08.040 --> 00:29:17.200
Uh, we are s- on, as my sister would say, we're on the struggle bus this morning. Yeah. But anyway, um, I was gonna share my screen to show this chart, but I'm just gonna, uh, talk about it here.

160
00:29:17.280 --> 00:29:24.550
A really important piece to this is the fact that Swan was not entitled to profit share from this operation.

161
00:29:24.580 --> 00:29:45.500
According to their own documents that we obtained, this is according to a Swan shareholder letter that was sent in July and also the, the, the fundraising deck that we o- obtained, they were not entitled to revenue, or, or sorry, profit sharing, and I'm actually not even sure if they were entitled to revenue, that's not totally clear to me, from the operation until 100% of investor capital was paid back.

162
00:29:45.940 --> 00:29:56.340
So until Tether returned r- received 100% of its invested capital back on the operation, Swan was actually not entitled to any profit share according to Swan documents.

163
00:29:57.180 --> 00:30:03.480
Now, this is super important because in the first half of twenty twenty-four, that mining business brought in eighty-four million dollars worth of revenue.

164
00:30:03.960 --> 00:30:07.930
It was 13.5 exahashes worth of equipment, which is pretty substantial.

165
00:30:09.060 --> 00:30:32.068
And to give y'all a, uh, a kind of comparison here, Swan's financial services in twenty twenty-three brought in six million in revenue, and the, the projection for twenty twenty-four according to this investor presentation was thirteen million.And so a really important piece here, Swan, and you can go-- I encourage people to go read the article, not just because I wrote it, but because there's a lot of stuff here.

166
00:30:32.108 --> 00:30:47.108
It's really dense. Swan was- You gotta read it. Swan was-- Thank you. Swan was-- seemed to have been banking on this mining revenue to be a factor in its financial reporting for the Series C that it was trying to raise.

167
00:30:47.488 --> 00:31:01.928
Swan was trying to go public via an IPO. They were raising a Series C in anticipation of this. They were trying to raise seventy-five million at a valuation of one point two billion, which is insane to me.

168
00:31:02.068 --> 00:31:05.448
But anyway- That seems like a crazy valuation to me. It seems wild.

169
00:31:05.508 --> 00:31:18.148
And anyway, a lot of this stuff starts unraveling behind the scene, and eventually Swan backs that valuation down and backs their Series C aspiration down and goes from thirty million to three hundred million.

170
00:31:18.168 --> 00:31:28.488
We have no idea what prompted that. We have no idea what went on behind the scenes. But I can't help but see that in conversation with all of this stuff going on with its mining.

171
00:31:29.128 --> 00:31:37.808
During this time, Swan was trying to peel off its, its section of its mining business from the joint venture with Tether.

172
00:31:38.368 --> 00:31:43.388
Apparently, they had a handshake agreement for that to take place on April first, but there was never anything signed.

173
00:31:44.008 --> 00:31:53.948
So there's all of these weird kind of spaghetti-- There's this like s- type of spaghetti facts just all slithering around in this, in this, you know, lawsuit.

174
00:31:54.408 --> 00:32:05.358
And, you know, we don't know where the meatball is, but it's somewhere hidden in there. [laughs] And, you know, um, all that being- So like- Yeah, go ahead, Charlie. Go ahead.

175
00:32:05.358 --> 00:32:15.308
So like, so like what-- Yeah, so it's like it's, it's, it's veiled. It's, it's, it's ambiguous a lot of what's happened. Like, the more filings, filings come out, the more clarity emerges.

176
00:32:15.448 --> 00:32:28.988
Um, it can be hard to, like, back channel some of the conversations to figure out what's actually happening and to do reporter stuff. Like, that is challenging. Um, where does this go?

177
00:32:29.148 --> 00:32:39.488
Don't make a-- You don't have to make a prediction, but, like, where does this go? What happens next? Um, so tomorrow there is going to be, I think, the first hearing regarding the lawsuit.

178
00:32:40.528 --> 00:32:48.228
I don't have the details as to whether it'll be public domain. I don't know. I, I mean, I-- They don't live stream these things, right?

179
00:32:48.348 --> 00:32:58.708
So, um, I, I don't know if there will be-- There will probably be a transcript afterwards uploaded to Pacer. I'll be keeping my eyes out for that. So I, I think we're probably in for a few months of deliberation,

180
00:33:00.128 --> 00:33:11.288
and this will probably settle maybe out of the court. Uh, that being said, if what is true about the equity ownership, the, the whole key to this is the shareholder agreement for Twenty Forty Energy.

181
00:33:11.388 --> 00:33:23.408
Once we have that, everything will become clear, and my early hunch is that Swan doesn't really have a strong case for their whole mining business being stolen.

182
00:33:23.448 --> 00:33:35.228
Because if they only owned twenty percent of Twenty Forty Energy, then, you know, Tether can do whatever they want. Like, Tether kicked Corey off of Twenty Forty Energy's executive seat.

183
00:33:35.388 --> 00:33:38.948
He was the CEO, and they, they dismissed him in August thirteenth.

184
00:33:39.448 --> 00:33:49.968
Now, importantly, nothing in the Swan lawsuit is, is going after Tether or Proton Management, which was the new company established by former Swan employees and contractors to manage the mining business.

185
00:33:50.288 --> 00:33:58.928
Nothing in the lawsuit pushes back against Corey being removed. Nothing even really explicitly states that they're being sued for stealing the entire mining operation.

186
00:33:59.248 --> 00:34:05.508
The crux of the entire suit is for stealing proprietary information from their GitHub, specifically the BNOC thing.

187
00:34:05.568 --> 00:34:22.768
Which it, it looks kind of like a Grafana dashboard, which I frankly thought that was standard if you're gonna have an operation of scale, but- And yeah, and that's a big part of the opposition argument here is that, number one, none of that can even necessarily be said to be solely Swan's because that belongs to Twenty Forty Energy.

188
00:34:23.108 --> 00:34:28.708
And number two, they also kind of say these aren't really trade secrets. Like, there's nothing super special here.

189
00:34:28.808 --> 00:34:36.858
Anyone who has run a mine, anyone who has worked with miners know that basically any miner is gonna have some sort of software that they use to track these things. Yeah.

190
00:34:36.888 --> 00:34:46.288
Obviously, they built it probably in-house, so there's an argument to be made that they were using something that they constructed from scratch. Certainly there's some data pipelines and some feeds, but is it- Sure.

191
00:34:46.588 --> 00:34:50.148
But there's nothing here, like in the lawsuit, and this is where I will put a little heat on Swan.

192
00:34:50.168 --> 00:35:01.028
They're talking about like that hash rate optimization stuff and like all of this kind of woo woo, you know, super advanced tech stuff. Well, they were switching between pools o- opportunistically.

193
00:35:01.088 --> 00:35:10.278
Like, they talked about that on, on our mining pod, and we talked to Rafa, and like there was some like- Yeah. For sure... there was a little more a- agile like management, but how agile like can you really get?

194
00:35:10.288 --> 00:35:18.868
And how special is that, right? Like if you talk to any miner, they have a lot of these things, you know. It's like whether or not these can be considered trade secrets is highly dubious.

195
00:35:19.368 --> 00:35:31.948
And I really do think, again, the key to this is if this was built for Twenty Forty Energy for managing the deployment, then it's not necessarily Swan's, right? [laughs] Thank you, Craig. Yeah.

196
00:35:32.328 --> 00:35:42.608
Craig says, "You're definitely trying to mine the epic set." I mean, yeah, if you're- Craig, if you-- Craig popping off in the chat. By the way, um, [claps]

197
00:35:42.648 --> 00:35:51.678
uh, thoughts and prayers to Craig and all of those affected- Yeah... in North Carolina from Hurricane Helene. Um, we are- Yeah...

198
00:35:51.688 --> 00:35:57.428
our thoughts are with you, and I hope that everything's going okay over there in Asheville. Yeah. We feel for you, Craig.

199
00:35:57.548 --> 00:36:02.818
Um, I'll just-- Like one question to wrap it up, 'cause I, 'cause I can ask a good leading question.

200
00:36:02.868 --> 00:36:25.168
Like if in a scenario where there's, say, a JV and one company brings some of the operators, um, and management, and one company brings well over the lion's share of the money, do you see a shareholder agreement where the JV is such that it gives the, uh, the just the operators so, uh, so much command over the entity itself?

201
00:36:26.088 --> 00:36:36.036
I don't see that, uh-That's common in the industry Say that-- So sorry, say that one more time. If you have a JV- Like, you know, okay, so like, you know, Swan's got some operations guys

202
00:36:37.176 --> 00:36:48.976
and, uh- Oh, I see They don't have one If someone foots the bill for the capital, and the JV is written in such a way where the operators end up getting the say over... Right. No, like, that's not very common at all.

203
00:36:49.056 --> 00:36:57.856
Yeah. I mean, you could look at, for instance, like Hut 8's managed services might be a pretty good corollary here. Exactly. Yeah. You know, Hut 8 has no claim to those machines.

204
00:36:57.936 --> 00:37:06.276
They only manage them, and they, they extract a fee from the parties that they manage for. And so that's really the whole thing about this Swan stuff.

205
00:37:06.336 --> 00:37:12.116
And, and to me, you know, y- I had to be careful with the language in this. You know, we had to dance around it a little bit.

206
00:37:12.856 --> 00:37:25.636
But it really, if-- what's laid bare right now, and, and we'll get more clarity later, seems to indicate that, like, what Swan advertised as its mining business was not its mining business to begin with.

207
00:37:25.656 --> 00:37:31.956
It might have had a piece of it. It might have had a chunk. I don't know how much of the hash rate it owned, if at all.

208
00:37:31.976 --> 00:37:37.476
But the really sketchy thing is here is, like, people were under the impression that this was Swan's operation. Yeah.

209
00:37:37.496 --> 00:37:45.696
That it was one hundred percent wholly owned by Swan, and that's just fundamentally not true, by their own admission in their own documents. No, it was misleading. Yeah. Yeah.

210
00:37:45.776 --> 00:37:58.596
So, you know, um, you know, hearts out to all the people who were let go from Swan in July. They laid off, like, half of their staff. Hearts out to anyone who's still there, who's having to deal with this.

211
00:37:58.656 --> 00:38:12.596
You know, I, I know that this is probably coming as a shock, but to me, um, d- depending on how this pans out, it's gonna be a pretty damning, you know, condemnation of maybe some missteps by management.

212
00:38:12.746 --> 00:38:22.856
And, and that's just, to me, that's kind of the story here is how-- were you misleading investors? There's something deeper here about, you know... And, and I think this is the other missing piece. I was told by a Swan,

213
00:38:24.416 --> 00:38:33.896
a former Swan employee who, uh, who, you know, requested not to be named, that there was something bigger behind this story that has not come to light yet.

214
00:38:34.636 --> 00:38:49.536
So, like, there is, like, a, a, a bomb or a smoking gun somewhere in here that once it goes off, we're gonna know basically everything about this, and we're gonna have more information on what was going on behind the scenes at Swan during, you know, what seems to be kind of an, a collapse of sorts, right?

215
00:38:49.596 --> 00:38:57.426
Or, or at least a, you know, a, a huge, uh, growth spurt. Or not growth spurt, but a huge, uh, you know, misstep for the company.

216
00:38:57.426 --> 00:39:10.936
I mean, you, you and I, you and I have a collective decade of watching mining in, in the Bitcoin ecosystem pretty closely, um, have seen, uh, a lot of ups and downs and a lot of bullshit.

217
00:39:11.116 --> 00:39:22.926
And I think our joint BS meter or our joint smoke alarm is, uh, probably more accurate than it was, um, a few years ago, so. Yeah, 100%.

218
00:39:22.926 --> 00:39:31.136
There is, there, yeah, this is def-- What we do know- Where there's smoke, there's fire. You know- Yeah... if it walks like a duck, if it smokes like a duck.

219
00:39:31.386 --> 00:39:46.436
[laughs] Um, but yeah, just to highlight that last point, whatever that truth bomb is is gonna be decisive in figuring out what went wrong here. And, you know, it almost seems like going back to this, I'm alleging this.

220
00:39:46.556 --> 00:39:58.685
I'm not saying this is true. This is Colin's gut feeling, his hunch. Yeah. This is an editorialized podcast. Colin the moron. This is opinion. This is, this is National Enquirer. So the National Enquirer take here- Yeah.

221
00:39:58.696 --> 00:40:09.986
[laughs]... is did Swan mislead potential investors in their Series C saying that the mining revenue was theirs? Because if they used that- That's the question, yeah... in a pro forma, then that is,

222
00:40:11.176 --> 00:40:22.156
that- that's, you know, big. That's bad. Yeah. So not saying that happened, but that's the big question mark that I have after doing this initial investigation. Uh, tune in to our newsletter at the Mining Pod.

223
00:40:22.316 --> 00:40:31.706
You can go to miningpod dot new- the, uh, the miningpod.blockspace.media to subscribe to our newsletter, and we should have more updates on this as it comes.

224
00:40:31.736 --> 00:40:37.936
This is gonna be a story that I'm following very closely over the coming months, and I will try to update it with as much detail as possible.

225
00:40:38.016 --> 00:40:48.916
Also, if you know anything about this, and you're involved, or you used to work at Swan or whatever, hit your boy up. Always looking for a little intel. Yeah. The hotline is Colin's DMs.

226
00:40:49.136 --> 00:41:02.056
As I lay HODLing, As I Lay H-O-L-D-L-I-N-G. There we go. Yeah. [laughs] I mean, so- Uh, Charlie, any, any, uh-- Sorry, go ahead. No, you were gonna ask me if there's anything else.

227
00:41:02.126 --> 00:41:13.516
I don't have anything from- Any, yeah, any, any final takes on this from your side? Um, not, not any that I really wanna share publicly, except, like,

228
00:41:14.416 --> 00:41:24.036
this is, uh, you know-- Sometimes there, you have to have multiple sacrifices before the bull run really kicks off, and you never know who's on the chopping block.

229
00:41:24.076 --> 00:41:34.336
But, uh, I do feel like, man, the Bit- Bitcoin's, Bitcoin and Bitcoin builders have just been punched for the past fifteen years, and sometimes those are just self-punches.

230
00:41:34.976 --> 00:41:50.056
And, um, yeah, I am bullish on, um, a lot of the people who've, like, developed really, really good skills and built really, um, good, uh, personal brands, uh, for themselves in the Bitcoin and broader Swan ecosystem.

231
00:41:50.096 --> 00:42:04.816
So shout out. Hit us up. Um, yeah, that's all I'll say. Otherwise- I think that, uh, I think that's a wrap. I think we're gonna r- I think I'm gonna wrap it up. Uh, make sure to like and subscribe.

232
00:42:05.056 --> 00:42:17.796
Review us on Spotify if you're listening. That is if you're on Spotify- Please... or Apple. Yeah. Scroll up, click this heart or whatever right of that review. Click that star. Yeah. Smash that fucking star, my guys.

233
00:42:17.826 --> 00:42:28.296
Please. Smash that star. Pull your earbuds out, throw them on the ground, stomp on them, and smash that star. [laughs] And if you're on YouTube, click the button, and you know how this works.

234
00:42:28.516 --> 00:42:44.946
So, um- Like, comment, subscribe. Follow us at Blockspace Pod on Twitter, or X rather, @theminingpod, @CBSSpears, @asilayhodling. Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter at- Da, da, da, da, da...

235
00:42:44.956 --> 00:42:48.856
newsletter.blockspace.com. I'm gonna cut you short. Bye-bye.

236
00:42:55.196 --> 00:43:07.276
[outro music]
