[upbeat music] What's up, y'all? Welcome back to Blockspace Live, brought to you by CleanSpark. Fun show lineup today, Charlie.
We're gonna start with Applied Digital closing on a $1,590,000,000 bond offering, and also some n- notes from Moody's Mark Pinto on how we're starting to see a kind of bifurcation in the corporate bond market as it relates to AI infrastructure builds and software service companies.
Following that, we have Tim Neimier on to discuss Illinois' crazy crypto wealth tax. I guess we, we'll call it a wealth tax. Um, but- It's like an everything tax, but we're, we'll get into that.
Yeah, it just insane legislation coming out of Illinois today. We'll have that for our interview.
For other news, Data Center Dynamics just came out with a story about how construction firms with exposure to AI builds might be under pressure. Now, this is a single source story.
We've got some supplementary data there. TLDR, they might be making a lot of money right now, but supply chain constraints could shake their foundations in the year to come. After that, the big story.
[chuckles] We will be covering gay power. [chuckles] And by that, I mean a recent California mandate for utilities to spend 1.5% of their budget on LGBTQ+ AZYD BWXQA businesses. [chuckles] Oh, man.
We gotta be careful there, Colin. [laughs] Uh, Blockspace goes live 1:00 p.m. Eastern every weekday. You can find us anywhere fine podcasts are streamed, live at 1:00 p.m. Eastern
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Colin, we have a big raise from APLD, not to be confused with Apple, but rather Applied Digital. They're applying the digital to something.
[laughs] Yeah, I always, uh, had to double take because the ticker is so close to Apple. But this is coming off of, uh, SEC filings.
This actually hit yesterday, and Applied Digital is, has just secured a formerly announced $1.59 billion senior secured note offering due 2031.
The coupon for this note is set at 7%, and Goldman Sachs acted as the lead purchaser. Few other headline notes on this.
[lips smack] Uh, this will be backed by equity in an Applied subsidiary for this specific data center, which is their, uh, ELN04 project in Ellendale, North Dakota, 150 megawatt data center.
Um, this is, uh, the, uh, specifically this is Applied Digital's Polaris Forge One AI Factory campus, and it is serving CoreWeave in a contract that kicked off in August 2025. A few other key notes here.
The, um, cost will be used for the, uh, construction associated with the remainder of the 150 megawatt campus.
Will also repay a $300 million Goldman Sachs bridge loan, and also fund an $81 million debt services reserve, uh, just to give them a little bit of cash cushion, and also closing transaction expenses.
Um, there are a few other details.
Amortization, as we've seen with other of these senior secured notes, uh, will begin once the data center lease, uh, commences and, um, once there's actually revenue being generated by that.
So up until that point, I believe they will only be paying interest on the loan, but full amortization of the principal won't begin until they start earning cash from this latest build-out.
[lips smack] Charlie, any thoughts? Yeah. Uh, I have here... Uh, sometimes I like to put, like, an actual, like, face to, uh, the act- the, to the deal itself.
So, um, I have, uh, here Ellendale, uh, North Dakota, where this facility actually will be dropped, town of 1,500. Zooming out, it's on the south side of North Dakota, right on the border.
But, um, yeah, I mean, looking at a $1.59 billion, uh, note being deployed somewhere around this town, kinda wild when you think about it.
And again, we report on, like, the data center pushback a lot, but, um, I feel like there's a, there's a lot of space up here. Uh, [chuckles] I mean the- Yeah. The... Yeah, [chuckles] especially in North Dakota.
I mean, it's one, been one of the corridors... It's been part of a corridor in the Midwest or, I know this is the Great Plains, but you know what I mean, for building out some of these larger data centers.
Mara has a, um, or, or had, uh, this facility before. I believe they sold it to Applied Digital. Um, one, one, one quick thing to know, this is specifically for Building 4 at Polaris Forge.
Um, and, and that building is 150 megawatts. They have other capacity there as well.
Before we move on to our interview, Charlie, I wanted to highlight this, uh, Bloomberg interview with Mark Pinto at Moody's, [lips smack]
because as we're seeing all of these, you know, data center build-outs draw in private credit, and we're seeing these massive notes being issued,
Mark Pinto here is saying we're starting to see a, quote, "tale of two cities" with regards to these corporate bonds where-
There's a boom in the AI infrastructure, uh, business and in the related corporate bonds for those. There are questions given AI's proliferation about the credit worthiness or rather the, um,
um, the attraction of software as a service, uh, uh, businesses and their bonds. So I'll play this really quickly. We'll unpack it, and then we'll get, uh, Tim on here. Well, it really is a tale of two cities, right?
It's the best of times, and it's the worst of times.
So to your first point about infrastructure, asset-based lending is becoming bigger and bigger, and private credit, the OG, uh, Mag Seven are meeting up with the private credit Mag Seven.
[laughs] They're doing a dance, and they're financing and, and helping each other finance this big build-out of data centers. But they're doing...
Private credit is also doing other types of infrastructure as well, whether it be ener-energy or, or types of things like that. So, uh, AI is, uh, the sword that cuts both ways basically in private credit. Mm-hmm.
I mean, it's, it's how they're, uh, making their money now. But also on the software side, a lot of them are taking a hit because they, I guess, over-invested in software, right?
Yeah, so that's the worst of times in the tale of two cities. Yeah. So if you look at the BDCs, on average they have, it's well-documented, about 25% exposure to software companies.
And, you know, since Claude Cowork walked into the room, people are scratching their heads and wondering, "Is this going to be a growth enabler, or will this be an existential threat?"
And we probably won't know that until 2028 when we see the first refinancing wall.
A lot of these companies were underwritten or debt was provided to them, loans were provided to them in 2021 when you had zero interest rates, great growth, and there was a lot of, uh, tight credit spreads because there was a huge amount of demand for this stuff.
But so the, the TLDR there, basically, he's talking about, you know, the, uh, the, the boom post-COVID when, when Zerp kicked back in.
You know, the Fed raised rates in 2018, dropped them to zero, um, in response to COVID. And so you had all of this cheap credit frothing around.
And so these, uh, business development companies, which are basically funds that are stood up to invest in, um, higher credit risk, uh, uh, businesses, they were loaning to these software and services companies at a time when the stock market was ripping, software as a service was a great play, and now AI has come into the picture, and the question is, do these companies have moats or advantages anymore in the market when anyone and their grandmother can spin up a homespun version, a home-brewed version of, you know, name your pick?
Peter McCormick was just on Twitter a few months ago talking about how he stood up his own website in, like, a week, and he didn't have to use Squarespace anymore. So that's a good example of that.
And the idea here basically being some of these bonds will mature, or there will be covenants that kick in in 2028, and the question then becomes, uh, what will they actually be worth?
Will there be a credit crisis with software service companies specifically, especially considering now the corporate bond market for these AI builds is much more attractive? Yeah, it's like you, uh...
It's like roll back the clock a couple hu- you know, 100 years, and, uh, you're writing, uh, checks both to automobiles and to, uh, horse stables. You know, it, it's [laughs]
you, uh, uh, you're supplanting the own industry that you're, that you have a bunch of, uh, obligations towards. The great irony. We'll see.
Uh, you know, there is this narrative that we're just demanding net more software. The question is, does that software, uh, accrue value to the companies that you lent to? Right.
And then I think the other question, and this is, like, quite the Bitcoiner angle, like, were those companies worth lending to in the first place in the sense that in a 0% interest rate environment you have all of this misalignment of credit?
You know, it's... Money is so cheap, it has to chase some sort of return. Some of these companies probably didn't need to raise that much money anyway.
Look, it sounded like a great idea when COVID hit, and everybody and their dog became a SaaS company, and Zoom ripped, like, 20X overnight. Zoom's a great p- a great example. Yeah. Like, w- why, why did...
Was that ever... It was valued at some multi-billion dollars at some point, and- Well, it's because all the boomers didn't know how to use Discord at the time, the far superior video conferencing technology.
Okay, we gotta keep rolling. We have a decent little show for you. We've got Tim Neumeyer of the Illinois Bitcoin Council talking about this wild new tax in Illinois.
We're gonna talk about the data center construction blip on the horizon or currently in the, the middle of it. And then, uh, let's just, just gay power in California. We're gonna hit on that too at the end.
So [laughs] uh, let's, uh, hear from our sponsor, CleanSpark, and then we'll talk to Tim. [gentle music] We are CleanSpark, America's Bitcoin miner, a publicly traded company with the largest operating hash rate,
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[upbeat music] If Bitcoin's actually the best money, and it's the thing that people should accumulate, and it's the best risk-adjusted asset, I lose zero sleep about whether or not that's gonna happen.
I, I just ask the question of when. It's literally matrix math that you're running on large pieces of data. It's the Bitcoin miners can absorb that energy.
And, and in many ways, this feels like a second bite at the apple to build a new internet. [upbeat music]Okay, I'm tired about talking about AI, Colin. We talk too much about AI and AI stocks.
Let's get back to Bitcoin. This is what I'm even here for. We have in the wings Tim Neumeyer, and I'm gonna bring him on up here. Tim, welcome to the show. I can hear you.
And, and, okay, just for the audience, we ki- I kinda, like, hit up Tim last minute because this story dropped this morning, and I was like, "Who's the first person to call?" Google, Google, Google.
Gotta find out who's, like, the president of the, the local, like, Bitcoin chapter there, and Tim was the first to answer the call. So thank you for coming, Tim.
Uh, give me a little TLDR on the Illinois Bitcoin Council first. Right. Thank you. Uh, we are a 501[c][6]. We're a trade, trade organization focused on, uh, education, advocacy, and collaboration.
We're trying to paint the state of Illinois, uh, Illinois the, the color orange, and, uh, we're having some difficulties right now, as you can tell. Yeah.
Uh, it looks like Pritzker is, you know, hell-bent on painting it red- Ooh... by taxing all of these transactions. Can- give us a TLDR, Tim, of what this legislation actually does. Okay.
So it's a.2%, uh, tax, and it's not on, um, holdings. It's, uh, on broker business activity for Illinois, uh, customers. So it's not on owning crypto, it's not on gains.
It's, uh, focused on exchanges, custodians, wallet transfer providers, right? And the crazy thing about it is it carries a Class 3 felony for unregistered or non-compliant brokers. Whoa. What...
It, it's- [laughs] I, personally, I didn't know there were different classes of felonies. Yeah. What does that mean? I don't know. Do you know what that means?
[laughs] Not really, but I do know that they're trying to gain what they think is, like, $60 million a year from crypto for a budget of $56 billion, so 0.1% of the budget. But, um, they don't even believe...
They believe it's going to be, uh, Tarver, or Tarver's, uh, own words, he believes there, it's not going to, uh, go through.
They believe there's gonna be litigation, so they're not even expecting any, uh, revenue off the first year. So- So-... it's the first in the nation, no other state taxes digital assets in this way.
And just for more context here, a Class 3 felony includes things like aggravated battery- Oh, okay... unlawful use of weapon, forgery, and theft between 300 and $1,000. Holy smokes. So, you know, I... So, okay.
Sorry, I just, nec- follow-up question, Tim. Yeah. You said this is targeted towards brokers, but, like, if I'm just buying Bitcoin in Illinois, let's say I go to an exchange, I buy it, and then I transfer it out.
W- what, are both of those things taxed? Do I pay that tax? Do the custodians and brokers pay that tax? It would be paid through them. It'd be paid- Okay... through the brokers. Okay.
So, like, my Strike account, you know? Strike would be paying, but, you know, there's downstream ripples of course.
But, uh, no, it definitely hits Illinois firms like Strike, DRW, Jump, uh, CoinFlip, w- uh, and- The other, uh, ATM company...
which is funny because just, uh, four years ago, Pritzker was on stage saying crypto, he's open for business, and, uh, gave a $1.7 million, uh, state tax credit to keep CoinFlip headquartered in Chicago.
That, w- that's wild. Okay, so, like, the, I think the big question is, uh... Well, there's a bunch of big questions. Was this on anybody's radar? 'Cause look, I'm, I'm familiar- No... with how it's gone in Oklahoma.
Like, these, these, these bills are really difficult to stay on top of, and it sounded like this was kind of thrown into, like, the omnibus, like, budget bill. Right. Yeah, ex- like, w- walk this through for me.
So it wasn't legislated, it was inserted, about 1,600 pages, you know, party line, no consultation. Um, a- and that's kinda the story itself, the process of the story. It wasn't its own bill. It was buried.
Uh, final, final moments, uh, before the vote, uh, no stakeholder consultation.
So we met with the, uh, Illinois House Republicans back in February for a Bitcoin workshop, and nobody heard anything about, nobody mentioned anything about it. I mean, everybody was blindsided.
And so you mentioned that this could be, like, challenged, and I'm kinda curious. Uh, I don't ex- expect you to be an expert on the legal process here, but, like, how it gets challenged. Okay.
Well, [laughs] the, are, are there- I mean, is there anything outstanding already? Like, is there already, is there anything lined up right now? I know it's pretty fresh, but... It is fresh.
Uh, there's already, uh, discussions on how, and how, and you know, how to fight back basically. But, uh, we're still gathering the facts as of right now. It doesn't seem enforceable either.
Um, you can't- Yeah, like, how does this, how do you even do this? 'Cause I know, okay, you're supposed to log and pay your state tax, but, like, the enforcement is just as important as the, the law itself here.
So it leans on brokers to track who's an Illinois customer, value every bit of activity, and report monthly. Um, so for example, like, an out-of-state platform serving a small market, that's a, a heavy build.
Someone will j- they'll, some will just geo fence Illinois out. So it's kinda opposite of the goal of what they want. Yeah, you might actually see a kind of BitLicense-esque scenario like in New York, where just- Yeah...
crypto businesses decide, "We're not gonna even go to this jurisdiction because the legislation is just too onerous."
And for the ones that stay, they're just going to end up, I don't know if they could do this, but I would imagine they would just increase the spreads for Illinois buyers- Oh...
so that they can make up the difference, right? Yeah, so we have a, a member here in Illinois, Orange Horizon Wealth, um, and I mean, they're even part of the, uh, Rockford Chamber of Commerce, you know?
Uh, they're gonna have to... So basically the c- clients are gonna bear the, that path through, pass-through cost, you know? It's, it's just gonna, it...
So to say it's just for, uh, brokers, that's, y- we all know that's not true. What's your initial sense on... I mean, 'cause Chicago's a huge financial capital.
If not New York, it's Chicago who's financial capital of the US. Um- So you have a bunch of Bitcoin and broader crypto digital asset companies HQ'd in Chicago, Illinois therefore. Do- what is your sense?
Do you f- do you think any- they're gonna s- think twice about, or, or figure, like, figure out how to either challenge this or plan an exit? I'm kinda curious what your, what your- I-... take is. I, [sighs]
I think this is less about, um, crypto policy, if you will, and it- it's kinda like a, a revenue grab on a s- a group too small to fight back, you know? Right now it's us. Um, it's interesting.
It's happening right before any CLARITY Act or any, um, you know, potential strategic Bitcoin reserve. Uh, there's always politics being played.
Um, so I'm sure there's more to it, but I'm, you know, I'm not inside the mind of them, so. Do you- And do you g- uh, sorry, Charlie, can I, can I hop in here? Yeah, go ahead. Yeah.
I mean, wh- why, why, why do you think they're doing this? Do you get the sense that this is politically motivated? Is this just, you know, j- Pritzker is, has been one of the bigger Never Trumpers, I think, on the,
in, in, within state executives. And- I can... Yeah. Yeah, so what do you think?
I mean, is this w- this seems so forced, and like you said, it was kind of a, um, pork barrel-type amendment to this, to this package- Yeah... though.
So if I could kind of, uh, I can't really speak to their intentions right now, but if I look back at when, uh, a while back, John Cabello put forth, uh, Representative Cabello, he put forth a, uh, strategic Bitcoin reserve for Illinois, as, you know, many states have and done.
And he even had some bipartisan support until, um, Governor Pritzker got wind of it, and that got shot down. And the, the, the thought is anything that's pro-Bitcoin is deemed pro-Trump, therefore in this- Mm-hmm...
blue state with Governor Pritzker, um, it's just dead in the water, and that's unfortunate that that game is played. And I've even talked to Democratic, um, legislators who have, you know, agreed with that framing.
So maybe, like, to try to, you know, think optimistically here, 'cause this, Bitcoin's down. The whole market is down. Vibes are down. You got this happening in your home turf.
Um, what's like an optimistic scenario for the next few years? I know y- the Illinois Bitcoin Assoc- or Illinois, Illinois Bitcoin Council has, like, put proposals together.
You've gotten, like, a bill sponsored and, and, and, and, and out there. Like, what do you, what do you hope to see happen i- you know, in an optimistic scenario the next few years?
So, you know, I've been a Bitcoiner since 2018. Um, it, it's very grassroots. It's very bottom-up. Um, I think we're gonna continue that. It, seemingly top-down is not the solution. Um,
so for example, the Illinois Bitcoin Council, we're supporting different educational, um, types of, of, you know, projects going out there. We have the Bitcoin Scholarship Foundation happening.
A man, Andrew Tillman, is running that. Um, $500 scholarships, uh, to underprivileged children and providing, uh, education along the way, financial literacy education.
Uh, we're supporting the Altgeld, uh, Bitcoin Reserve, so Altgeld Gardens on the South Side. Uh, Tobias Shepherd is trying to
f- uh, get that to where the neighborhood themselves, it's the first community Bitcoin reserve.
So, um, they're gonna store Bitcoin, time lock it, and then put forth projects, uh, put forth the gains over the years towards their own projects. So it seems like, you know, Bitcoin's, uh, think globally, act locally.
We're just gonna have to keep rolling with that and keep building from the bottom up. I don't really have anything else. I just hope- I, I don't really have anything else.
I, I just hope that we see a, a legitimate legal challenge, and that this- Yeah... isn't pushed up into, you know... It c- this could, you know, I don't think it'll go to the Supreme Court.
I mean, I don't, I'm not a legal expert, but- Well, he, I mean, fact- Right... Pritzker has been discussed for running for president, so, you know, he might run.
I, I just think the la- I guess the last thing I'll say is, like, if this sticks, this sets a very unfortunate precedent for the rest of the country. I mean, I'm in Oregon, man.
If they get wind of something like this, they'll probably actually try to do a wealth tax on crypto. I mean, the- Bro, you're doomed in Oregon with crypto I know. I'm, I'm screwed, man.
And I just think it's really unfortunate, especially the, how politically colored and coded Bitcoin has become. Yeah.
You know, the, the, the Democrats were already pretty, uh, staunchly against a lot of the, a lot of the, uh, Bitcoin and crypto industry. We saw that with Choke Point 2.0, with Elizabeth Warren's anti-crypto army.
Uh, but it seems like now it's really reached a new level with, frankly, with the way that the Trump family has embraced it.
You know, I'm, I'm hesitant to say that it's all their fault, but when, when the President of the United States is launching shitcoins on the eve of his inauguration, it just makes it really easy to, to, to punch down on that, right?
So. Yeah. [laughs] Um, it's, it's, there's always a...
I d- I do see the, a lot of negatives coming from that, but I also am optimistic enough to be- believe on the other side is gonna be, uh, more freedom money, more, um, understanding of Bitcoin and its values.
Uh, when you see censorship happen, that's when it's easier to see the solution of Bitcoin. So, um, you know, fourth turning vibes, let's go. Fourth turning vibes, let's go.
Tim, thank you so much for hopping on this, uh, carte blanche. I really appreciate, appreciate your time. Thank you, guys. Best of luck.
Would love to come to Illinois and spend Bitcoin in your, uh, in your state and not incur that 0.2% tax. Hey, see if you can get Pequods to accept Bitcoin. Yeah. That would be great. Pequods. On it. Okay. Thanks, Tim.
Thanks, Tim. Thanks, guys. Thanks for coming. Take care. Illinois- We're back... probably the gastronomic, uh, or Chicago, the gastronomic capital of the Midwest. Yeah. Beautiful, beautiful restaurants.
Beautiful city, by the way, uh- And a beautiful president of the Illinois Bitcoin Council. So, uh, yeah. The- I feel like this is a story we'll probably hit on a few times and- Definitely... touch base on it.
Like, I wanna get, like, some, like, Bitnomial folks, maybe a Strike person or two. It'd be great to get some of the brokers and exchanges. Yeah.
And I also think there will be plenty of supplementary reporting for this, or follow-on reporting, excuse me, when... We will certainly see legal challenges to this, I would imagine. Yeah.
'Cause I'm not aware of a precedent for this in other forms of finance.
Like, could you imagine the uproar if a state laun- or, or, or signed a bill into law where it's like every single transaction through Charles Schwab or Fidelity had to- had to be taxed?
I mean, well, we already have the de minimis tax, but, like, this would be [laughs] in addition to that. Okay, we gotta keep rolling.
Um, we were gonna talk about data center construction woes and, uh, uh, equitable power in California here shortly. But before that, a word from our sponsor, Luxor.
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All right, Charlie, before we hop on over to a segment that will get us canceled- [laughs]...
let's go ahead and take a look at some reporting coming out of Data Center Dynamics in which they ask the question, "Are US construction supply chains buckling under the weight of the AI revolution?"
Now, what's that, what's that axiom where if a headline starts with a question, the answer is always no? Benford's law, I think. Yes. Benford's law of headlines.
So that being said, I say that because, not because I think that the source here doesn't make some good points, but because this is a single source raising concerns in this article.
I wasn't able to find anything else substantive to, you know, material... or, or to, to back up what's being said here. Um, so take it with a grain of salt.
That being said, I think there are some good points in this article. So the TLDR here is that CEO of Rapid Ratings, a firm that does financial health analysis on supply chains, Charlie Minutella...
So I'm imagining a very small jar of Nutella talking about sup- uh, data center supply. With my face on it. [laughs] Yeah.
Um, says that manufacturers and builders are, quote, "not in a position to support the increased expectations of them to build these data centers."
Uh, part of the reason why I wanted to bring this up, Charlie, is we actually talked about this yesterday. I, I mentioned that one of the, I think,
uh, unspoken risks or threats to the AI CapEx cycle is, uh, uh, is the fact that you might actually have a labor shortage, because how many firms can actually be reliably tapped to build these things?
But you also have supply chain kinks that may start rearing their head more in the years to come, especially as more companies rush to build these data centers, and that's something that, uh, Minutella here notes.
Uh, but Rapid Ratings' numbers specifically, uh, point to 20% of companies that support data center construction are already at, quote, "high risk of bankruptcy," and across nonresiden- across, uh, this is also across nonresidential construction, utility construction, semiconductor, electronics manufacturing, and electric power and transmission gen- generation, that roughly 20 to 30% of those companies are in significant financial distress.
Um, again, single source, take it with a grain of salt, but I, the reason I bring it up is just to raise the question, are these companies actually in a good position to capitalize on the AI CapEx boom?
And I think that when you hear that they're under stress, but you also hear that there's probably more demand for their services than ever, that might not square very well, and that was my first question with this.
But the key point I think that he's making is this, that, quote, "There's definitely kinks in the supply chain. When the data centers get built, the full switch on isn't happening," end quote.
You know, that seems like a little bit like a, a shoe salesman trying to tell you that, you know, you need better soles on your shoe even though they're not falling apart.
I mean, they, they s- they look at these companies and they, and they assess their financial health. Perhaps he's trying to push their services.
But one thing that I think that he does highlight here that is worth mentioning is that supply chain kinks could actually be detrimental to some of these companies.
If these data centers are delayed and the construction teams are not getting paid on time, if they're already in financial d- distress, they could end up going bankrupt, and I think that's probably the most charitable reading of ways in which this could actually be a problem.
Before I say more, Charlie, I wanna kick it to you for second thoughts. Yeah.
As much as the president ha- ran on a platform to leverage tariffs, to go toward China, and re-industrialize domestically, when, like, all of this specific type of steel, I'm looking at it, it's, like, what, fine grain steel, comes out of, like, a single factory in, like, Cleveland or something, um, and that's what we use to make transformers- Uh,
like that becomes a domestic industry supply choke point.
And another, like I was reading through this and like cr- and cross-referencing other data points here, like there's one which is the additional, uh, transformer, uh, lead times, like so new transformers.
But what I was-- I had not really thought about, I think this may be hitting a lot of people like a freight train here, is that you have to consider the existing transformer supply chain and the fact that I think over 50% of transformers in America are past or nearing their full life cycle.
And so you have a replacement in addition to new transmission and transformation that has to be produced. So maybe this is...
Uh, I mean, we've known that the supply chain crunch and the actual like turning the megawatts on crunch has been a barrier.
Uh, but I feel like that was kind of the narrative four to six months ago, and maybe we're headed into another round of that as the, uh,
uh, as the rubber hits the road, as these facilities do actually have to turn online and go from least power to generated power at a data center.
Yeah, I think that the supply chain crunch question has one-- has been one that's been looming for a while. And you know, we've seen headlines every now and then. You just highlighted a great one.
One of the key choke points here is that lead times for nor- for a normal transformer is like two, more than two years as of 2024, with large transformers anywhere from four to five years.
And that was one, one of my takeaways too, Charlie, this idea that roughly 50% of the nation's transformer portfolio needs to be refreshed on top of all of this historic demand with AI data centers is crazy.
And we don't make these things in the US, and over 80% of transformers into this country. So that is a huge bottleneck if it actually ends up becoming tight enough to create issues.
But I think that you'll probably start seeing these issues next year or in 2028 if they do materialize. You know, they cite CoreWeave in this article about them having a delay.
I, I believe, I am not totally sure 'cause it was hard to verify. I think they were talking about the delay at the Core Scientific site.
We actually reported on that, I believe, um, at either at the beginning of this year or at the end of last year, and that was actually related to, uh, reportedly a transformer fire, right?
So that's hard to say that that was, you know, a supply chain issue. I think that was more of an accident on site, um, from what, uh, my understanding of it.
But if we do see supply chain kinks show up and actually delay these data centers, I think that you'll start seeing it next year and into 2028 when these data centers, a lot of these, uh, the first wave of the CapEx cycle when they're, you know, scheduled to be energized and come online and start servicing tenants.
I wanna wrap up with just a quick quote here, um, that just to crystallize this, 'cause this is also important.
Quote, "While private credit has come in and offered financing to these companies," the ones, you know, the data center operators and the neo clouds and the actual, uh, LLM providers, "a lot of those financing terms are based on milestones and covenants.
So while some of these companies are getting capital to get off the ground, everything needs to line up, otherwise they-- there could be instances where they might lose the company, lose a significant portion of the company, or the funding would dry up, which would then cause pressure on these construction companies because they just lost their source of income."
Right? That's another point they make in this article that all of these backstops and financial guarantees are for the data center providers themselves.
Most of them do not flow upstream or, excuse me, downstream to the actual construction firms, and that's something that Minutella notes here that might be necessary for some of these firms going forward if they want to protect downside or protect against downside during this CapEx boom.
And you've already mentioned Cleveland-Cliffs as the sole US producer of grain-oriented electrical steel, which is what's needed for these data centers. Yeah.
And that is just one example of the ways in which all of the supply chain risk is concentrated in China.
As we've covered on the pod before, they have most of the critical mineral refining capacity, like depending on what the mineral is, it's anywhere from 60 to 90% for all global supply, and so that is an, a huge concentration risk.
So as far as I can understand the arguments here, the, uh, Minutella is basically saying, should we see supply chain kinks play out and then become real disasters for this whole industry?
The construction firms will then be hurting as a result. But as far as I can tell from this, uh, uh, it, it doesn't seem like there's any immediate risk.
It's more of if these supply chains break down, we could see a cascade that affects not only the data centers, but the contractors as well.
I will say I feel like doing this show every day is just preparing me to, to have a bunch of very obscure information loaded but my-- in my head for like family meals whenever.
I'd be like, "Yeah, well, there's an obs-- you know, there's a manufacturing facility in Cleveland, uh, that produces the, you know, the only, uh, fine gr- grain-oriented electric steel, which is the entire, you know, supply chain for domestic transformers."
Whoo, that's a mouthful. I'm excited to drop that, uh, and impress my wife someday. I think we gotta keep going. We have, uh, one of our, my favorite, uh,
fun stories about a California electrical grid, uh, coming up here, but before that, a word from our sponsor, Lygos. Hedge funds are getting liquidated. Is your Bitcoin safe?
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We made it halfway through without covering like an angled piece on the theme of the month. But here it is. It's power in California.
And for context, this is a story from City Journal, which is a conservative, uh, think tank journal. So while it is fact-based, there is an angle here. Um, and here is the story.
So inside California's gay certification program byline, the state is pressuring utilities to award th- six hundred and thirty-three million in contracts to LGD- LGBTQIA+ businesses. So
what does this mean?
Um, California's, uh, publicly owned utility, CPUC, is the regulator that oversees privately owned electric, gas, water, telecom, and they are pressuring utilities to award one point five percent of procurement.
These utilities have to buy, they have to do studies, they gotta hire people, they gotta, you know, subcontract stuff out.
CPUC has been pr- is pressuring the privately owned utilities to award one point five percent of procurement to LGBTQIA+ certified businesses, which if done, if that, uh, if they hit their total target amounts at the peak would be six hundred thirty-three million.
Um, for context, the California utilities spent collectively over forty-three billion on contractors in twenty twenty-four.
Um, and, uh, this is part of, you know, a multi-decade like, uh, diversity, equity, and inclusion initiative that dates back to the '80s, uh, for like mainly like women-owned businesses. Um,
and, uh, there are some takes here, and we're gonna try to be tactful and toe the line. I'll say it. Um,
the average power price in California is two times that of anywhere else of the average, uh, uh, two times out of the national average. It's very expensive to do anything in California. Why is that?
Is that 'cause they have geological, geographic disadvantages? Um, could it be that they spend their time focusing on these types of initiatives rather than trying to get the power grid?
Is their goal to have equally distributed expensive shitty power to everybody, or is their goal to have good power to everybody?
This is a, this is a, this is a, these are utility companies and a, and a u- and a grid that regularly lights the forest on fire and causes forest fires. Colin, I'll throw it to you. So yeah, just to get out front of it,
we have no problem obviously with, you know, LGBTQ businesses providing services to the grid and to utilities.
Mandating that these utilities have to spend their money, even if it's a sliver, even if it's one point five percent on these companies when the California grid has a host of other problems that are much more pressing is just patently absurd, and it's very unserious.
Part of the reason why California is so expensive, and to give you all those numbers,
the cost of electricity for residents as of March twenty twenty-six is thirty-three point three five cents per kilowatt hour, up from twen- uh, up three percent from thirty-two point four eight cents the year prior.
Again, it is the single most expensive state in the contiguous United States for electricity. It's behind only Hawaii,
which is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and is, has no access to any other power other than what it can generate from solar or import through nat gas, right?
So the fact that that, that, that alone to me says, look, you have so many other problems here that trying to create carve-outs for specific businesses based on the business owner's identity
to me is, is, is almost offensive to the majority in California that faces eye-watering power prices.
Part of the reason why those power prices are so expensive, by the way, California has decommissioned three nuclear power plants since nineteen sixty-three,
and they've also prioritized renewable build-out while decommissioning natural gas and coal. They have zero coal firepower, um, a-as of, as of, uh, probably a few years ago.
But you can see if you go to the EIA, they have great data on this.
You can see the breakdown for consumption here, electrical power sector consumption by source, zero percent from coal, fifty percent from natural gas, zero percent from petroleum, thirty-four percent from renewable, and sixty, uh, sixteen point two percent from nuclear power.
The, the funny thing about this too, Charlie, is California doesn't even lead the nation in solar. That's, uh, that, that's Texas. Of Texas. They, they produce, um...
I, I think this is, uh, this is 2024, so this is actually outdated.
But even in 2024, it was only 15% of the grid, but in, in terms of trillions of British thermal units, in terms of the actual power produced, it was 569.5 for Texas versus 402.5 for California.
And one other amazing note here, Texas is less populous than California. California is the most populous state at, like, nearly 40 million, Texas at 31. But California produces 57% of all of Texas's energy.
Texas produced, as of the summer of 2024, 168.3 megawatts versus California's 96.8. That is an absurd statistic.
Obviously, not all of that is going towards residences, but the fact of the matter is, that's why data centers and Bitcoin miners have been building there, because Texas actually builds generation. Yeah.
California does not build generation. They have been a degrowth sector for energy over the last few decades.
Yeah, and we can see kind of the mecca for data centers, the new, the new era of data center is obviously Texas. Um, the northeast corridor, also pretty big. Tennessee, smaller sites, Georgia.
But look over here, where the CPUC, the California Public Utilities Commission, uh, uh, presides. None.
And it's fun- You know, I would say that, like, um, someone who hates data centers would look at that and be like, "That's great." But at the same time, I would ask that person, what do you actually care about?
Do you actually care about cheap, affordable energy? Do you care about being able to, uh, buy a home and, like, save for things that you want? Because you don't get those things in California.
California is famous for making those things prohibitively expensive. So- I mean, everything. Gas. I mean, gas in California in some areas was up to $8.50 a gallon recently. Two reasons for that.
One, I believe they tax it extremely highly. Two, there's only one refinery in California. There used to be several refineries, which makes a lot of sense- Yeah... because you have the most populous state in the US.
So there's massive transportation costs to get it from middle America, from Texas, from Kansas, from O- O- Co- Colorado and Oklahoma. I believe all of those states have refineries.
I assume that they're shipping it from middle America. Three refineries. The majority of, the majority of the refineries, they're actually, uh, gonna be along the Texas-Louisiana, uh, coast. Right. But yeah. Right.
So, you know, and then you c- couple that, like you said, with the high power prices, with the fact that they don't build anything, uh, from power plants to houses. I mean, this...
I've said this multiple times on the show, I think, or maybe just in my private life, California should be the best state in the US. They've got all the advantages. It is gorgeous.
It is, like, every climate zone, every, every recreational activity. Um, they're flush with resources.
There's actually a lot of oil and gas still in LA in that area, but they don't drill for it for environmental reasons. It's got beautiful beaches. It's got mountains that you can ski on.
It's got the Napa Valley for wine. You can grow a shit ton of stuff in California within the Green Belt. It is an amazing state, and it is absolutely kneecapped by the most deranged policies you could ever imagine.
[laughs] You know? Yeah. This is California if they just simply drilled for oil and gas. I mean, honestly, unironically, I believe that.
Which is funny, because if you talk to people who think that all the regulation, et cetera, is good, they'll, they'll point, "Well, we don't wanna be like Texas."
It's like, oh yeah, you don't wanna be like the state that's actually drawing in everyone who's leaving your state. Yeah.
California lost, like, 200,000 or 300,000 people from its population at, I think, during one of the most recent censuses. Do you know how crazy that is?
Do you know how many people have to leave to have a net loss in your population? Yeah. Uh, so if you hadn't already gathered, this is a Promethean show, not a Malthusian show.
Uh, we, we believe that equity is better distributed when there is net more providence for all people. Um, if I can s- uh, make a general statement. Um, we're gonna get off the hot mic.
We're gonna get off the hot seat, and if we make it to tomorrow without being canceled, then, uh, then we've, then we might get a little too overconfident and big for our britches. But otherwise,
thank you for listening to the show. Like and subscribe. You can find us streaming anywhere podcasts are found, shortly after the show wraps.
We are live every weekday, Monday through Friday at 1:00 PM Eastern, featuring quick hits on AI, data centers, Bitcoin, crypto assets, markets, and sometimes Bitcoin, even though I said it already again. Um,
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