[upbeat music] What's up, y'all? Welcome back to Blockspace Live, brought to you by CleanSpark. We are back after a short hiatus, and news is popping. And by news, I mean SpaceX is popping.
Now, SpaceX has fallen about 18% from its peak post-IPO. It's popped up today about 5%, and we've got two big news items in addition to the stock price to cover.
Number one, they have inked another AI deal with Reflections AI for additional capacity at one of the Colossus data centers in Memphis. And they're also going to issue their first bond.
Even though they're flushed 100 billion with cash, this is not a cash raise story. It's about refinancing a bridge loan and making sure they can clean up their balance sheet. That's our first story for today.
For our second story, it's the globalist versus ERCOT. And what I mean by that is there is a new data center pact, responsibility pact.
[lip smack] I don't know what we should call this, but 40 mayors have signed on to this new pact about the right ways to roll out data centers in their respective localities.
More on the pros and cons for that when we get to the segment. Some things that actually make a lot of sense, other things that are kind of, I don't know, Sisyphean.
You're really kind of just pushing the boulder up the hill. Maybe not the best thing to focus on.
For our interview today, we have none other than Project 11's Alex Pruden on to talk about the r- latest executive order regarding quantum computing and resistance for governance systems, and I believe also private sector guidance as well.
And we will wrap up with news of CoreWeave and Nebius joining the Nasdaq 100 as of yesterday. That's right. Blockspace goes live every weekday at 1:00 p.m.
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More on them later on in the show. Colin, we took a four-day break, and in the meantime, SpaceX almost broke. But guess what? It's back. Let's pull up the chart.
SpaceX up 6% today and climbing, $163, almost $164 per share. Yesterday, it showed signs of faltering, and what I mean by that is on, on- Look at those gaps up and down, man.
Yeah, on Thursday, 'cause we-- 'cause American markets are not trading on Friday 'cause of holiday.
On Thursday, closed around, I believe, 180-something, 182, and, uh, Monday, yesterday, crashed all the way to the high 140s, thus wiping out... I saw a stat here. Don't quote me on this.
The majority, like super majority, of SpaceX, uh, buyers post-IPO were at a loss. Now it's up today, uh, to 164, which is pretty significant. So, uh, the market,
there was some stuff announced, but, uh, yeah, SpaceX, again, the stock everybody thinks and talks about. I hear people talking about it on the street.
Um, I hear, you know, uh, neighbors, and if I took an Uber this weekend, I would've heard an Uber, Uber driver talk about it, so. That- It's a lot of news...
that stat, uh, or the wipeout makes sense to me, at least on its face, because if you got in pre-IPO through your broker, you're g- you got in at 135 bucks a share.
It almost immediately started trading at, like, 160, though.
Um, upon listing, after, you know, the exchanges had the order book figured out, 'cause it'll start trading, and they won't actually publish the live data until they can actually figure out what the legitimate bids and asks are and where the [lip smack] two meet.
It was listed at, like, if you go to any stock chart, it, like, starts trading at 160. So we're just above that right now. N- not surprising, I think, to anyone.
It had a very, very, uh, had an impressive run-up following the IPO. And once more, only, like, 5% of shares are trading right now. So the actual float is very shallow. It- it's, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's close to four.
It's, like, 4.6% of shares. The first unlocks, uh, kind of as a kind of a waterfall unlock of the remaining 96% of Class A shares over the next 300, uh, and 60-some odd days.
The first unlock comes, I believe, in early August. I can, I will-- I'll actually see if I can pull up the, uh- Yeah, it comes, uh-... the chart here. Sorry... it comes 30 days after they drop their first 10-Q.
So whenever they do that, it will probably be August. Usually it takes these companies about a month, month and a half to get out their financials following the quarterly close.
So y- you would expect sometime in late August and early September to see those shares hit the market and potentially impact the stock price. Yeah, I've got it here.
The first share is, um, targeted to unlock August 4th, and that's when, um, the float of 4% circulating shares goes to 15%,
uh, on that date, of which the majority of the unlocks will be from the, uh, institutional VC. So that's about 5.6% of the remaining unlocks, uh, that kick off. And then it just happens every two or three weeks.
I mean, then August 21st, then September 13th, then September 25th. So- Um, it's just unlock after unlock until Elon gets last, his-- which is the IPO day plus one, so 366 days Yeah. In fact, check on myself right there.
It is after the earnings report releases. There's-- I don't believe there's actually a waiting period of 30 days after that.
Um, but like you said, it's tiered, and it continues to rise up until Big Dog himself has his [chuckles] shares open to the market, which, you know, he'll, you know, no doubt liquidate some of that.
But I, I don't think that he's going to give up the majority of, of what he owns in this. I mean, he, he clearly...
This is like-- SpaceX is probably Elon's biggest baby in the sense that he's always been about extraterrestrial exploration and, and this is like the stuff of science fiction.
So he, uh, I would imagine he's probably gonna keep a lot of his back 'cause he thinks that it's probably gonna be worth tens of trillions of dollars one day. Yeah.
Look, if you're a trillionaire like he is or maybe was, uh, then what else is there? You're now completing side quests and in-game content, space being one of those. So, um, there were some big announcements, Colin.
I'll let you-- I get-- I think let's start with the bond raise because even though SpaceX has a ton of money from the IPO, apparently there's even more money to be found. Yeah.
And this is, like I said at the beginning of the show, this is largely a refinancing story more than anything else. Uh, this is coming from CNBC.
SpaceX kicks off bond sale days after record IPO discloses over $100 billion cash pile. According to sources speaking to CNBC, SpaceX is seeking to raise $20 billion.
We don't know whether or not that is the actual figure because if we look at the actual filings that SpaceX issued on Edgar for this, they have said that they are seeking to raise, uh, senior unsecured notes in a private sale, but none of the other details are public yet.
A few notes about this as to why, again, they're doing this when they just are sitting on a fat cash pile following the IPO. [lip smack] Uh, specifically, SpaceX has a bridge loan that they
took on shortly before the IPO, and this bridge loan consolidated a bunch of debt that was rolled over from Twitter when Musk bought it and, uh, xAI, and all of the, you know, companies under the umbrella of X.
This bridge loan is for $20 billion, so it would stand to reason that SpaceX wants to raise an- that enough so that they can refinance that bridge loan under this new note issuance.
And that loan carries a roughly 4.58% interest rate as of March 31st, 2026. It's based on SOFR rates plus a few Bips. And also, we got credit ratings for SpaceX recently.
S&P Global rates SpaceX credit at triple B, Moody's at, uh, triple B plus, Baa1, and Fitch Ratings at triple B plus as well.
And just again to highlight this, this will be refinancing a bridge loan, which Musk used to consolidate all of the debt from Twitter and xAI in leading up to the IPO, so they could kinda clean house and get the balance sheet a little tidier before the company went, went public.
So again, this is not a, "Oh, they need cash." They're sitting on $100 billion. You know, I will, will say in, in the world of data center development, you probably can never have too much cash.
But they'll specifically be looking to use this to refinance that bridge loan. And also,
I would be curious to see once they iss-issue this unsecured note and once the company gets a little older, what it'll do to their credit rating because right now they're at investment grade, but they really wanna be getting up to that A,
uh, credit rating, uh, you know, with, with some of the other Mag Seven. So that's the TLDR there, and this comes on the back of this, this bond issuance. I believe the news hit today. Uh, yes, uh, this...
Oh, uh, this was hit yesterday. This comes on the back of another big news for SpaceX, Charlie, which you have the notes on. [clears throat] Yeah.
First, we got Anthropic signing an, a deal with, with SpaceX to use Colossus-1 as inference.
Then we had Google sign a deal with SpaceX to use their Colossus-1 as inference, and now we have Reflections AI signing a deal to use the B3-- GB300 chips at the Colossus-2 data center.
This adds $150 million per month to SpaceX revenue from Reflections AI, which frankly, I was not very familiar with as a company.
Um, the short version is they're kind of like the American open source, uh, model developer equivalent of a lot of the Chinese open source models, your Kimys, your, your, your DeepSeeks.
And so, uh, Reflections AI also got that sweet, sweet inference, this time on the premier NVIDIA chips, the GB300s, uh, which are being installed at the Colossus-2 data centers.
This would assum-- And the deal terms are with, with Reflections is almost identical to that of Anthropic and Google. It's a 90, uh, 90-day termination clause, um,
and, uh, g-gives them agility, and this would bring about $6.3 billion in revenue, uh, through the duration of the contract, which is 2029. Reflections, for a little context, um, is not just some AI startup.
It is also part of the kind of cir-circular money wheel of NVIDIA money. Um, so it was founded by Google DeepMind researchers, uh, and was backed by an $800 million investment from NVIDIA.
Uh, again, as I said, it kinda positions itself as the American, uh, open source alternative to China's DeepSeek.
And in this case, Reflections has, uh, ties with the US government, specifically working with the Department of Energy's Genesis Mission and select Pentagon AI programs. Don't know what that means.
This is what they've said they, they have done.
So, and then on top of that, if, so NVIDIA invests in Reflections, and then Reflections is gonna be doing inference on the GB300s at Colossus-2 from SpaceX, which again, is NVIDIA hardware.
So it is-- It's almost like this is, uh, the... To me, I, I see this as being interesting. Like, you need to know the name Reflections alongside NVID- uh, alongside Anthropic and OpenAI. I'll toss it to you, Colin.
Yeah, so a few notes on Colossus-2. They're targeting two gigawatts of future capacity at this site, which is massive. Right now, it's roughly three to four hundred, and I believe Colossus-1 is, like, three hundred.
And I think the really notable thing here, too, Charlie, that you hit on with Reflections AI is this idea that they're trying to build an open source frontier model.
I think that we're going to see increasingly the importance of having an open source model that can compete with the black box models that are coming out of OpenAI and Anthropic for a number of reasons.
Uh, you know, we've seen kind of s- jitters over the government contract that Anthropic has and their drama with the US government following reports that it was being used for military applications.
Uh, but also just from the fact that you're going to want to have something that you can actually look into to see how the model is actually running, so that you can know what it's filtering for, right?
And actually the capabilities that it has and the limitations that it has as well.
But I think maybe one of the more interesting things here, too, is now that now xAI is hosting theoretically two competitors in the sense that xAI runs Groq, and now they are hosting Reflections AI.
I guess three competitors, yeah. No, it, it, they, they are the market now. Yeah.
Um, Groq, which is like the based near frontier model, Anthropic and OpenAI, two front runners, direct competitors, Reflections AI, the slightly more open, open source, open weighted, uh, maybe you might say, like, government affiliated, you know, American counterpart to the Chinese DeepSeek.
You've got-- It is really the commons here, which is in Memphis, Tennessee, Colossus-1 and 2. Uh, everybody's doing their inference in the, in the heartland of the country, so.
Just a- another note, don't sleep on the southeast and the Midwest. Yeah. Do not sleep on the heartland.
But, but I think that that's worth, worth noting because they have the Google deal, they have the Reflections AI deal, and they have the Anthropic deal.
All three of those companies are training their own models and re-releasing their own models. And you could almost read this as--
I, I don't wanna be too uncharitable, but you know, xAI doesn't need that capacity for Groq. Yeah, they have been moving it to... They, yeah.
They've moved Groq to training and inference on the Colossus-2, and they've, they've, they've handed off Colossus-1 to OpenAI and Anthropic. Yeah.
Almost like as, like second tier, second class, uh, uh, in, you know, inference citizens here.
Well, and what's interesting about it to me is it's almost a-- You could-- If you wanted to read this uncharitably, and if you were an Elon hater, you could say this is him capitulating that Groq is not a tier one model in the sense that, like, they don't, they don't need all the capacity.
Now, granted, it's a lot of capacity, but why not rent that out to your competitors if you, they're going to pay you, you know, billions of dollars? I believe, what is it?
It puts their monthly run rate for- Two point three billion... two point three billion. Yeah, two point three billion if you combine Anthropic, OpenAI, and Reflections.
Look, Groq is not a frontier model, but it is one where it's the most based of the, you know- It has its uses, for sure... closed source models. Yeah.
And if you're trying to scrape, you know, obviously data and tweets from Twitter, it, it, it has its uses.
But I just find it interesting that Elon is, or SpaceX is willing to house these competitors 'cause it's, it's a, it's a, it, it's turning into a pretty massive field and- Just these deals alone almost double SpaceX's 2025 revenue.
Yeah. So, and, and it-- because SpaceX is a data center company. They've been very clear about this in the roadshow and, like, in their messaging since. Um, we, we've covered this.
I think we sh- we, uh, we, I think, uh, we've probably kicked this cow, this horse a little bit too much. We need to go onto our next story, the data center pact. Yeah, yeah, definitely.
Let's, let's move on, but I, I did just wanna highlight that because at, at the end of the day, um, you know, like you said, they're gonna make a lot more money from renting these out.
And also, now their AI revenue is set to outpace their Starlink revenue, which was the breadwinner going into the IPO. Yeah. So yeah, let's, uh, run the CleanSpark ad, and then we will move on to our next segment.
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And, and in many ways, this feels like a second bite at the apple to build a new internet. Okay, Colin, uh, the globalists are at it again.
They've signed another deal with no teeth, or does it have teeth? [snaps fingers] Explain. That's the really good question, Charlie. That's the question. That's the whole, yeah, the segment.
As, as you would say, at first blush, I don't think that it does have teeth. In fact, I think it's actually going to neuter some of these cities in terms of their ability to- But, but what is it? Don't bury the lead.
What is... What's the deal? I won't-- Okay, I won't bury the lead. All right, here we go.
So this is coming from a PDF from the Global Urban Data Centers Pact, which is a coalition of 40 cities that have released a four-pillar pledge for how they are going to see about rolling out AI data centers in a more sustainable manner than the raving masses against these things would have you believe.
Now, I don't wanna totally shellac this, 'cause there are some interesting points here that I think actually make some, some decent sense, um, even from just a dollars and cents perspective.
So first of all, like I said, there are 40 cities on these things. You can probably guess which ones they are. We'll get that map up here in a second.
But the four pillars of this pact include what they call strategically integrate- integration or strategic integration into cities. And this, I think, is probably the one that makes the most logical sense.
They want to prioritize these mayors signing on to this brownfield adaptive reuse sites to avoid displacing communities and site facilities that are defunct, in coordination with local governments to minimize public health burdens, air quality, noise, heat, and align with city planning and climate goals.
So one, plod it before a demerit on this one. This makes a lot of sense. We've seen this with a number of Bitcoin miners who are moving into AI.
The one s- certain, uh, m- you know, uh, companies like TeraWulf, uh, also Bitfarms have prioritized-- or excuse me, Keel, have prioritized brownfielding certain sites, taking older sites that have a lot of the electrical equipment already on site, but they're not being used for industrial uses anymore, and using those to retrofit them for AI compute loads.
That just makes good sense if you can find those places.
If they're not being used and the infrastructure's already there, there's no reason not to convert them as long as the economics make sense, and as long as there are no zoning issues or you're not, you know, causing any sort of unrest with how that, uh, land is being used already.
The one thing that I do take qualm with is, like, the whole minimizing public health burdens. Uh, air quality, sure, although with liquid-cooled AI data centers, that's not really going to be an issue.
Or sorry, noise, that's not gonna be an issue. But with air quality, th- that's a-- th- that's not a data center thing. That's, that's w- what is your grid made up of? What are the power plants spewing?
Like, that, to me, is a different question entirely, which they do touch on, which in the sustainable and resource efficient mandate, where they want to meet primary and backup power needs without building, extending, or reopening fossil fuel plants.
They also want to exclude on-site fossil fuel use, RIP, uh, source new and additional renewable generation or battery storage to match power demand, and also hit best-in-class water use standards.
The best-in-class water use standards piece, fair enough, with a lot of the, uh, pushback that they've been getting for water use.
Most of these data centers will probably converge on a liquid-cooled model where they're not using evaporative cooling like the older data centers.
That's partly, I think, a misconception of what these data centers are being built to do and how they're actually engineered now.
[lips smack] But the fossil fuel one, I think, going back to why this will neuter them or kneecap them, I don't see a world in which the fossil fuels don't play a stopgap in getting these data centers off the ground.
We've covered this a lot in Texas, uh, backup generation and behind-the-meter generation is being used to speed up time to power before these large data centers can actually get interconnected into the grid.
If you don't have that, I don't see a world in which you are going to have a meaningful data center footprint anyway. Uh, that-- hence why I said at the beginning, globalists versus ERCOT.
Uh, the last two are a little bit more of a, uh, kind of sig, uh, virtue signaling or two virtue signaling pledges, accountability and community focus, publish measurable sustainability and public health benchmark data, engage with local residents, prioritize local procurement, and green job creation.
They have all of the climate, uh, jargon in here and the climate verbiage. If you thought the climate movement was dead, I'm sorry to say that you're probably wrong.
And, um, an engine for cost security and shared prosperity.
Data center operators directly fund needed infrastructure upgrades, energy, water network, fair share pricing tied to sustainability performance, yada yada yada.
I'll actually, um, to contradict myself, that is, is a virtue signaling thing, but I, I think this is where the, the industry is going to move anyway.
We covered ERCOT on one of our previous livestreams a few weeks ago, saying that they're, they're having new rules where they're telling the data centers, "The utility is not gonna be paying for the transmission lines and the upgrades for these data centers.
Y'all need to front those costs." I think that makes a lot of sense.
As you pointed out, Charlie, this is what the oil and gas industry has been doing for decades for investing in infrastructure, investing in roads in these far-flung places in the Permian Basin, et cetera.
That, to me, that and the, [lips smack] the mandate specifically, uh, for, like, brownfielding, it, it, it aligns with what we're already seeing in the industry, and I think, like, economically, that's going to make the most sense, particularly the latter one for making sure power prices don't spiral out of control as a result of this.
Yeah. Some of the things that these city leaders, uh, have, uh, committed to in this pact are aligned with existing industry trends, particular water use, which I've always been kind of hand-wavy about.
I don't think it's really an issue, but if it makes the people feel better and it, we establish good precedent, which is aligned with, you know, business, uh, activities This is great. Um,
I'll note that of the C40 cities, which is the organization under the London, uh, meeting that kind of spawned this, here's a little map of the cities. Um, they're all over the world.
They're the premier cities around the world, you know, Bogota, Mexico, Austin, Chicago, Warsaw, Athens, Delhi, Dhaka, um, Wuhan, Yokohama. Like, these are the global cities.
Conspicuously from this a- this, uh, commitment are 13 of the largest, most impactful Chinese cities. Um, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu. Um, so
the Chinese are not signed up to this 'cause this... It's funny, like, this mirrors a lot of, like, the climate accord activity we've seen.
Uh, because if, if the, if you commit to having no on-site fossil fuels for data center, uh, operation, the Chinese are just not gonna play ball. They're much more pragmatic about this.
And I really have a hard time seeing, uh, I have a hard time seeing, uh, that commitment actually work, especially given the fact that, uh, fossil fuels and fossil fuel gathering infrastructure tend to be near a city or around city infrastructure.
So we'll have to see about this. I'm gonna make a case for of what I like to see here. They have, uh, committed to a fair share or revolving fund, um, and there's, like, pillar four of this agreement here.
And they would, they would say e- each of these cities makes into a local ordinance a, uh, revolving fund mechanism where the operators and funders of these data centers directly fund infrastructure upgrades locally and regionally and, uh, put surplus funds, surplus flows into community funds.
So I like to see that. I've been talking about this for a long time, as to me it seems like a viable way to address the wealth asymmetry effect that's creating here. Again, I keep going back to oil and gas, like,
if a, if a region of the world is developed by oil and gas, uh, especially in the United States, the money tends to accrue, wealth tends to accrue in the region, whereas data centers not so. They do spin off tax revenue,
but if we're talk- if we're comparing that to, like, the amount of wealth they create, it's just a drop in the bucket.
If it's a $2 billion data center that's, like, two gigawatts and it sends, what, 50 million a year in revenue to the county in ta- in, like, property taxes, that may seem like a lot, but it's not a lot in the grand scheme of the overall data center.
Yeah, I... A few things here before we move on to Alex, Charlie. I- I'll, I will, uh, play devil's advocate and push back a little bit. Depending on where you are, 50 million in local taxes- Abs- yeah... is a lot.
It can be transformative.
It can be transformative for some of these country towns with only a few thousand people in their populace where they have no industry and the only, and, and the only property taxes could be hon- honestly negligible because a lot of those places have very s- uh, you know, very slim property tax rates.
And so I will say, depending on the context, that's a lot of money.
That being said, to agree with what you're saying, and a lot of pro data center people would say that this is basically amounts to extortion, but if you want to get this monkey off of your back for people fudding and hating on data centers,
one of the better things you can do is probably show community goodwill and say that you're willing to fund infrastructure in the areas in which that you are deploying these data centers.
And I d- I do think that is one of the stronger, that's one of the stronger olive branches that they can extend and say, "We understand that you're worried about these things."
Uh, you know, release some educational resources to say why some of those fears may or may not be justified, and then show that you are actually going to funnel some of that money back into the community in a way that won't just totally break the pocketbook.
Yeah. Um, so we'll have to see if th- so this, again, it's a commitment. It doesn't technically have teeth, but, uh, it is notable that this is a global...
These are cities all around the globe, with the exception of China, who are committing to this. Uh, we'll have to see. Uh, yeah.
And, yeah, last note on that with China, going back to what you were saying about fossil fuels.
This is the newly installed and decommissioned coal fire power plants in China over the last 25 years, according to Statista, and it hockey sticks up starting in 2024 and reached an 18-year high in 2025.
They are building coal faster than any other generator... And in terms of net gigawatts produced, they are building more coal than anything else in China right now. And it's like you said, they're pragmatic about it.
This is the most reliable base load we have. Yes, it's dirty. Yes, it's polluting. It has a very high carbon footprint. But China is not going to play ball with anything that says that they can't do this.
Like you said with the climate accords, they never have.
And I do wonder why they're even included on this map in the first place, especially when you consider the reports that they have been potentially funding and astroturfing anti-data center discourse in the US.
It's totally duplicitous and detached from reality. So that was one thing I really- Tell me how you, tell me how you really feel, Colin. Okay, we're gonna, we're gonna keep going.
We have, uh, on deck Alex Pruden, CEO of Project 11. We're talking about Quantum and the latest White House executive order. Before we bring Alex on, let's hear a word from our sponsor, Luxor.
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All right, let's talk quantum, and maybe we'll actually say the word Bitcoin on this show. Finally. Took us half an hour. I'm gonna bring up Alex here. Alex, welcome back to the show. Thank you.
It's a pleasure to be here to talk about the implications of quantum on Bitcoin, since- [laughs]... you have mentioned it, so now let me, let me do the honors for you. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. So I wanna have...
I would love to have you give a top-down explainer of this, but actually, we...
I gotta pull up this clip, because this clip that you guys posted the other day of Trump kind of stumbling through explaining what this is is gold. Um, classic Trump, here we go. It's 20 seconds. Play.
So we're going to be investing in American quantum leadership like never before to stay ahead of the pack. We're way ahead right now, and we'll keep it that way.
The second order I'm signing directs federal agency to transition to what is called quantum cryptography. Do you anybody know what that is? [laughs] You're gonna hear very soon. You're gonna help me, sir.
[laughs] You're gonna find it interesting. Cryptography for the computer- Okay. I mean, just an incredible Trumpism there. Oh, man.
And I was, I was telling Charlie, Alex, it reminds me of when Zuckerberg was getting grilled by the Senate a few years ago, and one of the Senate members just showed a complete ignorance for how they actually make money.
Yeah. And I don't know how you can be signing an executive order like this and not really understand the basics of what you're trying to guard against. Well, it, it- But okay.
A little embarrassing, but I'm sure he's not the first president to sign something he didn't understand, to be fair. That's fair. [laughs] Uh. [laughs] Okay. So Alex, what is this? What did he sign?
Ex- give me an explainer, 'cause, I... Is, is the White House doing quantum? What's going on? Yeah, so there's two orders, okay? So, so he m- he mentions it in the clip.
Uh, there, there's one about quantum leadership generally. Um, and, and that, that's really about, um, investing in generating quantum computing and quantum-enabled technology.
So quantum sensors is, like, another application for, for quantum mechanics, um, r- that came up in the news recently, 'cause it was, it was thought that potentially some experimental quantum sensor was used to help recover the downed pilot in Iran.
So stuff like that is part of quantum, and so they, they wanna basically...
They've mandated that, that the US, specifically the Department of Energy, invest more in basically developing quantum technologies internally, as well as investing in building a workforce around quantum, and also building a scientifically, I think they called it a, a scientifically relevant quantum computer.
I can't remember the exact term in there. But it's not, it's not cryptographically relevant, it's a scientifically relevant. You know, you could read that a few different ways. My read is that this is, you know...
They, they don't necessarily expect there to be... This is by, like, what? By 2031, uh, is when they aim for that to be r- So scientifically relevant, I would say, is, like, a slightly
less, uh, specific term than cryptographically relevant. But bottom line is, um, you know, they want the US to be a leader in building and to be a pioneer in quantum technologies generally. That's...
And the first executive order basically directs all these agencies to start planning for that.
The second executive order is, uh, more relevant to Project 11 and probably to digital assets, although they're not mentioned specifically.
It mandates that the federal government effectively adopt post-quantum cryptography, uh, by 2031.
And not only the federal government, but basically, like, any vendor that is serving the federal government, you know, or the...
Any, anyone the federal government is paying is, through contract relationship or whatever, also has to adopt PQC. Uh, and specifically the FIPS standard PQC. Or this, the NIST standardized FIPS compliant PQC.
So that's ML-DSA, SLHCSA. It's not important what those are, but basically those are the standards that the government had previously specified.
What's notable about this is, uh, previously the government guidance such that it was was this kinda high-level document from NIST from a couple years ago that basically said, "Hey, for any high-value systems, we need to deprecate classical cryptography by 2030, and then really we should deprecate it everywhere by 2035."
But it, it was very, uh, vague, and, you know, a lot of people kinda looked at that and said, "Ah, you know, 2035, we can kinda kick the can..."
By the way, it actually, that, that original document didn't mention post-quantum cryptography at all, just said, "Hey, we have to deprecate the old cryptography."
So this, this explicitly, those two things, I think, that's, they're important to know. One is it pulls forward the timeline from 2035 to 2031.
Secondly, it sa- it states directly, "Hey, these are the algorithms that you need to adopt." So what is the upshot here?
The upshot here, in my mind, is that the federal government, specifically the White House, is recognizing that there is, like, this is an opportunity.
Quantum technologies are advancing faster than people possibly expected. There's a chance.
They, they're trying to position this as Amer- you know, as, as an opportunity to, to gain American leadership in this up-and-coming field of technology, and they also recognize that as this technology proliferates, all of our systems are going to potentially be made insecure.
I mean, as you guys know, there's already a whole bunch of panic going on around all these AI models.
That apparently there was news today that, that the reason that Mythos got, uh, export controlled, or failed to get export controlled, is they, they apparently broke all of the NSA systems that they tested it on within a couple hours, right?
So there's already, like, I think a lot of hair on fire regarding cybersecurity. And so I think this is just, like I said, a, um, you know, an attempt by the White House to get ahead on, uh, on this new trend.
So, uh, one kind of cheeky observation going back to making sure that government contractors are quantumly secure, maybe we do just need to get a strategic Bitcoin reserve so that we can get the ball rolling on a soft work for this.
But, uh, tongue in cheek aside, Alex, a quick question for you. The, the executive order to me reads as either one of two things.
It reads as, like, lip service to something that's important and has been on the government radar for a while, and they've already been funding it,
or a- and/or it is recognizing and acknowledging, like, what you said with the capabilities with Iran for rescuing that downed pilot.
They're seeing the application of this, and they're saying, "We need to go into overdrive." What do you think? Do you think it's somewhere in the middle? Do you think it's both?
I think it's, I think it's both, and it's important to note that actually this executive order is an unfunded mandate.
They actually in the, in the latter half of the, of the security one they say, "Hey, we direct all of these agencies to find cost savings via migrating to cloud computing, et cetera, to pay for this."
They're not actually putting any more money towards this. They're directing the money through cost savings is actually supposed to be applied. So in that sense, it's a little bit weaker than it could have been.
I mean, they could have said, "Hey, we're directing these agencies to find, you know, or, or, or we'll ask Congress to allocate more money to pursue these priorities." They didn't do that, right?
But yeah, I think, I think they're both trying to position, you know... Yeah, it, it, it's kind of a, I think a little bit of both, I guess, to answer your question.
One thing about the executive order is that it looks like it mandates vulnerability disclosure. It's, uh, in a more formalized way.
This seems big to me, 'cause a lot of our game theory around, like, how a potential Bitcoin quantum break would happen, or other crypto assets, revolves around how it's disclosed, and who has the computer, and, and that.
Um, do you have any insight that, to this or any takes on this part of the executive order?
I don't think, yeah, I don't necessarily see this disclosure requirement affecting, like, the game theory of how potentially a quantum attack on Bitcoin would happen.
I think it specifically is directing, you know, this vulnerability assessment. There's a- and there's a whole bunch of parts of this.
It's like there's a cryptographic bill of materials they're asking for, for all these agencies.
Effectively what they're, they're doing is in more specific terms adding requirements that, you know, these agencies are all gonna be expected to tell the White House, "Hey, this is exactly where we're vulnerable today," right?
And so these disclosures and these assessments are basically just, I think, aimed at the heads of these agencies, and they're... In effect, the message is, "Hey, we're telling you you need to get serious," right?
Now, they're not, like, again, like, the, because they're not funding it, it's, like, not as strong of a you need to get serious as it could have been, but I think it's really mainly dedicated to these agencies.
Now, interestingly, I was actually, I'm getting ready to ship a, ship a, a, a quick X thread on this, but it's like I'm kind of curious on, like, how the DOJ or the Department of Treasury is gonna handle this disclosures, 'cause, like, the DOJ has seized all this Bitcoin, right?
And now the Department of Treasury, I think, technically is supposed to be, you know, that, that's supposed to form the core of, of the Bitcoin treasury.
So how do, like, how is that gonna be disclosed to the White House? It's 'cause, right, the, the, you know, the US government obviously can't mandate or force through a change to Bitcoin, as we all, we all know.
And so I, I think it'll be kind of interesting to watch to see how that gets handled, 'cause, and that's, and that's really, I think, as far as digital assets concern, are concerned, you know, you have to kind of read between the lines and see what is implied by this.
I think the only other major thing that's implied by this is,
you know, again, like, uh, to the extent that anything that is built on a blockchain could ever become critical national infrastructure, whether that's through a strategic Bitcoin reserve or whether it's stable coins, you know, that probably is ultimately gonna fall under some relatively strict cybersecurity guidance that the rest of the government and much of, you know, critical industry has to already come under.
So I think, you know, this, you guys know that I've been beating this drum for a long time.
I think this just p- adds more fuel to the fire, and I think takes away the arguments as for why it's okay to keep procrastinating and thinking about this. So, uh, part of this is the, is that it now, it now, um,
it, there's, like, actual, uh, post-quantum cryptography that is specified that you need to start integrating.
Um, my cursory review is that none of these, uh, are algorithms that have been proposed for Bitcoin, 'cause Bitcoin has kind of more unique challenges. Um, I'm curious your thoughts on, like,
the landscape of the specific cryptograph, post-quantum cryptographic schemes.
Uh, do, does Bitcoin look at these and see any of them as interesting or promising, or is it just, uh, something that's happening in parallel to the existing,
uh, discussion of what it might look like to do these on Bitcoin? Yeah, so I'd say the scheme on Bitcoin that's received the most attention is the scheme from Blockstream called Shrinks.
Um, I think that's probably the one that, that most people have focused on. Uh, that is e- it's, it's a variant of a NIST standard, uh, for, that's a stateful signature scheme called XMSS. So, uh,
technically I, like, that's, they, they don't, yeah, the, the, that's not mentioned in this executive order.
And so I guess what I'm saying is, like, you gotta kind of really squeeze, you gotta sort of stretch rather your definition of what is compliant and standard in, in the text of this order, and, and you'd have to really be quite flexible in your definition to say that the leading candidate for a Bitcoin post-quantum signature fits there.
But that said, it's important to remember none of the cryptography used in Bitcoin, or at least none of the signature, uh, the, the curve that the signatures currently are built around are standardized.
In fact, famously, Satoshi picked the non-standard curve for the...
It was a, it's a, it's a NIST standardized algorithm, but using a non-standard curve explicitly because it was a government-made standard and that no one trusted it.
And so, you know, like, at the end of the day, I, I think- It's, it's, Bitcoin doesn't have to adopt these standards. I think the question is, though, if we want...
You know, w- what is the government gonna do, or how is the government gonna view this asset class if they don't? Are they just gonna be like, "Ah, whatever, this is just make up, made up fake money.
We don't care about this. We're not gonna ever integrate it or make an effort to integrate this into our financial system"?
Or are they just gonna like kinda give it a pass and be like, "Ah, they tried to be compliant, they sort of modified the standard and that's fine"? I don't know. It's hard to say.
Um, you mentioned the cryptographic bill of materials. I don't know how interesting of a topic that is. I don't really know what that is or means. Uh, when, what is, what, what is that?
It's basically, just the, the simple version of it is, like, look, uh, there's a, like an, an analogous concept as the software bill of materials.
So if like, you know, the government has a, you know, a vendor that basically, like they built a, I don't know, like a website, say the VA website.
You know, the software bill of materials is basically like, "Hey, here's like our actual code of our implementation, but also here's all the dependencies."
Say we have like, you know, we're, we're building on like Next.js or something.
There's a whole list of these dependencies, and this is important from a s- a cybersecurity standpoint because, you know, again, the way software development happens is you're, you know, typically one person is not building everything, right?
There's some libraries they're relying on from various parties, and oftentimes this is where vulnerabilities or, or, you know, things get hacked, is because someone somewhere down the line of dependencies never bothered to update, you know, their schemes.
So this is really what these crypt- like this bill of materials or cryptographic inventories it's also called, comes into play.
Um, so I, I, I don't think there's really anything maybe worth noting on the part of the gov- o- of this executive order for these government agencies other than it's good practice for them to ask for this as a starting point.
I think actually though, the interesting part maybe for the, the broader industry and, and blockchain is, um, you know, this is gonna have to be step one for basically, think about a company like Coinbase.
Uh, a cryptographic bill of materials for a company like Coinbase that integrates, I don't know, 1,000 different blockchains, all of which use different versions of various cryptography, and all of which are considering different versions of post-quantum cryptography, is going to be an enormous undertaking.
And you know, and again, in this case we're not talking about necessarily information being exposed, we're talking about value being lost, right?
And so this is, this is again like I think for the, a lot of these infrastructure companies that are touching blockchains and digital assets specifically, this effort for a cryptographic bill of materials, if you think it's gonna be hard for the government, I think it'll be at least as hard for any infrastructure provider in crypto.
Alex, can you give us a checkup on where you feel like the discourse for quantum-proofing Bitcoin is at this point?
It seems like Blockstream has really taken the torch here in terms of developing a standard that most people think will be leading.
Uh, I think that in some cases it's quenched some criticisms that developers aren't doing anything. Where do you think we're at in terms of this discussion? Because a year ago
or earlier this year, it, we kind of reached fever-peak mania in the sense that people were scared about it or saying there's nothing wrong, there's nothing to do here, and the conversation seems to have died down.
But what are you seeing on the ground in terms of actual development within the people who would drive this forward? Yeah, I th- I think you're right.
I think Blockstream a- and Jonas Nick in particular have kinda taken the ball on this and they're, they're pushing, uh, forward on, on this strings proposal, which, um, I think is positive.
I think so whereas a year ago, I think, I think this was broadly, you know, broadly just viewed as like not in the Overton window at all, quantum's fake, blah, blah, blah.
Now I think it's like people are talking about it. Blockstream is doing something in terms of, I would say, research. I, I'm a little bit...
I, I guess I, I think one danger I see here is people are, are I think very quick to just reach for the, "Oh, Blockstream's working on it. We, we're good." And I [laughs]
I mean, ultimately Blockstream working on it in form of research is good, but I, I, that's a very long way from like this algorithm has been implemented, it is being run in various test nets, which by the way it costs a lot of money to run rigorously, and by the way you also need to integrate this into, I don't know, a ledger, things like that.
Like all, all of those steps are very, are, are pretty far out there.
And, uh, and I, I would say there, there was a bunch of, I would say there was a burst of initial progress from this, like in terms of describing the strings algorithm.
Blockstream and Jonas are now on a basically a PR campaign to go talk about it everywhere. I, I haven't personally witnessed any, a BIP. There's no BIP around this.
There's supposedly going to be one, but there is no BIP that's yet been authored.
And, uh, you know, other than it being implemented on their own Liquid side chain, there's not really anything else tangible that we can look at with regard to this proposal.
By the way, and there are other proposals that people have talked about. So folks have talked about isogenies which are very, it's very, I, I would say exotic, uh, on the spectrum.
But others have, you know, have talked about lattice-based cryptography, right? And that's exactly the type of cryptography that the EO is trying to standardize.
And so yeah, I think it's still pretty early, and I, I guess my, my caution to the industry would be like, okay, just, y- you know, this is all of our system. Like Blockstream does not own Bitcoin.
We all are stakeholders, and so we all need to think, continue to think about this and continue to invest time and effort, uh, into making this happen. If, uh,
you know, we have, um, there's like five different things associated with the quantum discussion. There's the, there's the cryptography, there's what do you do about old coins, what do we do about migration? Um,
I, you know, each of these is a potential almost certain like point of disagreement in the community. Um, and uh, it almost seems like insurmountable whether we'll actually be able to,
you know, have any kind of forward progress if we, if we do decide to soft fork.
Um, which of these do you think today, now that there's been a year, half a year, year's worth of quantum discussion, which of these do you think is the biggest tripwire for, uh- For just the, the progress towards a post-quantum Bitcoin.
It's interesting. I, I actually, I mean, quite frankly, I think the biggest tripwire and the biggest ha- impediment is apathy. I mean, so it's none of the things you mentioned.
It's just people being like, "Oh," like, "Other people are working on it. It's hard and, but smart people are out there. There's some core devs out there, they're, like, doing some black magic inside a room."
And I think that's just nonsense. And I think the apathy is ultimately, if we fail, it's because of this apathy that's pervaded everyone's m- mind on this front, at least including very large stakeholders.
And I think the stakeholders, I mean, even ones, I think, I would say, and I talk to a fair number of folks that have a lot of Bitcoin, I, I think they're, they understand there's a big risk, but I think there's a fear
in provoking some of these emotions, you know, that, that exist within the community around these issues that you're talking about with, like, Satoshi's coins and blah, blah, blah, and they don't wanna be perceived as enemies, right?
And so I think, like, that is encouraging this apathetic attitude where you're like, "Well," like, "We don't wanna weigh in 'cause we don't wanna get blamed." So I think, I think it's the apathy.
I, I, and honestly, I think,
I think the, the attitude that there are all these hard issues, as you framed it, is, I also think, a tripwire because I think, look, at the end of the day, there's, I would, I would distinguish these into two s- two categories of things.
There's engineering problems, okay? There's like, right now the thing can be, like, you can reverse engineer a signature with [laughs] on a computer, like, and, and you wanna get a signature that doesn't allow that.
So there's just a strict, like, im- writing that code, putting it on a test net, migrating value into new UTXO type. Like, so there's just, there's that part.
That is hard, to be clear, and it's difficult, and there are trade-offs, there are block space, et cetera. But like, that is, that, that is not, I, I wouldn't categorize that as like a philosophical issue.
Like, people are like, "Ah, okay, is the block size too big?" But ultimately, like, the- there's hard work to be done that isn't, like, particularly controversial, I don't think.
And then there's, like, all this con- all these controversial topics. But look, I think there's, you can totally defer those, I think, down the line. I mean, there's absolutely no reason why we shouldn't, we don't...
Really, there's no good reason why there's not already a signet or a test net that is public that post-quantum signatures are running of various types. Whatever. Forget shrinks.
Just take one of the off-the-shelf NIST ones. I mean, there literally are implementations all over the place. There is zero good reason we don't have a test net already with this, right?
Um, part of the, well, part, and the reason, the not, the good reason that we don't is because of apathy. Generally, people are like, "Oh, everyone else got it. We don't have to worry about it."
But I think, you know, like, the Satoshi coins thing shouldn't be an excuse for why we don't wanna tackle it, right?
And I think, I think, y- that's kind of a, a takeaway for I would encourage anyone who's listening to this. You know, I, like, I, I think this, th- that is the tripwire, is thinking there's a tripwire, right?
Ultimately, there's gonna be, I mean, this is Bitcoin. You guys have been around forever. Everything is political. Everything's political. Oh, blah, what color my hair is. You know, whatever. Yeah.
It doesn't matter, right?
Like, people are all gonna argue about it, whatever, it doesn't really matter, but ultimately the survival of the system depends on whether or not it is n- it is engineered and continues to evolve in a, in a way that it can actually achieve the function that Satoshi described.
That's what we should all focus on. So I hear that if there's a will, there's a way. Absolutely. Alex, thank you so much for coming on. Again, great sh- quick call. Thanks for hopping on.
Uh, you know, if the, if the president tweets about quantum, we gotta talk about quantum on this show. I- Thank you so much... no problem.
I'm bummed we didn't get a chance to go through some of the really great, we got the q- the Trump quote, we didn't get a lot of the AI slop- Yeah... really good ones.
My personal favorite, the Department of War one, which was like- Oh, I've actually got here, I gotta pull, while, while you're here, I gotta pull it up. Okay. This one. There's that one.
Now I'm like- My, the quant- the Department of War had one where, where we go one, we go quantum, which is my personal favorite. [laughs] Recommend looking that one out too. So anyway. All right. Thanks, guys.
I appreciate being here. Cool. Thanks, Alex. Thanks, Alex. Cheers. That's right, folks. QAnon is out. Q dominance- Is in... is in. That's a good banger. [laughs] Um, yeah, uh, gotta leave it to Trump.
Even something as arcane as quantum, he will be able to make entertaining, uh, just by virtue of his personality. That's true, and the interns running the X accounts will find some way to make it cringe.
[laughs] He's like, "Yeah, is it cringe or is it base?" Okay. [laughs] We gotta move on. We gotta mo- we, okay, we gotta talk stocks. We're gonna talk Nebius and CoreWeave. We're talking about the stock market.
I know that's what everyone even listens to this show for. So we'll get there after a word from our sponsor, Lagos. [whooshing sound] Hedge funds are getting liquidated. Is your Bitcoin safe?
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Go to lagos.finance to learn more. All right, Charlie, let's talk AI stocks. Let's talk AI stocks. Specifically Nebius and CoreWeave, which were just added to the NASDAQ 100 yesterday.
Not too much to comment on here other than a few things. First of all, these stocks ripped in anticipation of being added to this index.
They were announced to be added on June 11th, and then they were added yesterday, and both Nebius and CoreWeave took a dip following the listing.
CoreWeave more than Nebius, but both of them fell over the course of the day. Here's their peak right up here- Um, uh, shortly before the listing, and then classic sell the news event.
They fell, but they are actually, I believe, trending up on the day, as you can see here. So big moves for both of these companies. Two of the premier NeoClouds, according to analysis from our friends at SemiAnalysis.
And for Nebius specifically, there's also some news that accompanied n- accompanied this. Specifically, Nebius has secured a $2 billion investment from, uh, from, [lips smack] from NVIDIA. From NVIDIA. Yeah.
Yeah, actually, now that I'm looking at this, I realize that this is outdated. I think the news was just highlighted when this came out. But I guess it's worth noting just because we've talked a lot about how NVIDIA...
We- you've mentioned the circular round of financing, or the circular, uh, financial nature of some of these deals. But this is mostly important just to highlight Ne- Nebius' aspirations.
They wanna deploy more than five gigawatts by the end of 2030, [lips smack] and this NVIDIA investment will go part of the way to help that happen, but that's going to require a lot of capital.
And, and, and so, uh, is that in addition to, uh, NVIDIA and Iron's five gigawatts?
'Cause Iron, I mean, it's, it's coincidental that Iron also is trying to secure five gigawatts of power pipeline, of which a lot will go to NVIDIA.
I assume that it is because N- Nebius would have their own deployments, whereas Iron, they're trying to do fir- fully vertically integrated NeoCloud rollouts where they will own the data center and the GPUs.
That's at least the model currently. I'd be curious to see if they pivot towards an, a lighter model where they're actually going to just deploy at powered shells as well.
But, I mean, between the two of them, 10 gigawatts, it's, it's massive. At a certain point, the numbers really are just aspirational. These are, you know, roadmap numbers, but who knows if they'll actually hit them.
Uh, we, we, we... There's too many unknowns in terms of securing this capacity, irrespective of the demand question. You know, maybe we build all this out, and we still are short capacity.
Maybe we build all this out, and actually GPU prices crater because there's just way too much supply to meet demand.
[lips smack] But not too much more to say there, Charlie, but a congrats to the Nebius and CoreWeave team. Bumping up into the NASDAQ 100, NeoClouds are having a moment.
People are starting to wonder if they are overvalued. Brother, is the entire sector overvalued? That is the question I think that we will continue to answer as we- Is it overvalued, or are you under-allocated? So.
I mean, you would've thought it was overvalued at the end of last year, and a lot of these stocks are up another 100 to 200%. It is getting pretty frothy.
It, it seems like at least if not a popping moment, a correction would be necessary over the coming months. But, hey.
Colin the bear, he doesn't-- he thinks that because it went up 100X over the past few years, it can't go up another 100X. He's just shun the non-believer.
Call me a boomer, but when you look at the, when you look at these ratios, it's hard to not think, "Whoa, this is getting a little top-heavy."
But I've also argued the opposite with my dad to where, uh, what we're looking at is the most transformative technology in human history.
And maybe investors are just going to bet, whether or not you think it's irrationally, on the promise of that, so. I'll, I'll just say this.
I'm glad no longer are we betting on which, uh, SaaS, like, sales application is worth owning over the next 30 years, and rather it's more, uh,
uh, human flourishing, like, you know, make the machine God or put the machine God in space type of investments that we're making. Way more fun than, like, whatever the heck Salesforce does. Right. Uh, so.
And I, you know, and on that note, not SaaS, but I was just thinking about this in relation to Elon buying Twitter and then taking it private before integrating it into xAI and, and then specifically SpaceX now.
[lips smack] When you think about the, uh, how do you put it, the actual utility of a social media company and the actual lu- uh, lucrative nature of it, like, why, why would that ever be public to begin with?
The only reason Meta is worth anything is it's not Facebook. I mean, they do make a decent amount of money from data harvesting, but it's the data center play now.
And at the end of the day, that is one of the bull cases for these AI plays. There's a land grab going on right now, and there is a market share grab going on.
And if you're looking at the trajectory of these technologies, then yeah, why wouldn't you want to try to be over-allocated towards them or rush into this trade?
Because yeah, you can feel kind of painfully short sometimes, even, uh, if you look at these multiples where you're saying they don't really make sense. Value investing is dead is, is another way to put it.
We're all just trying to hyper gamble our way out of the future underclass. Yeah, you, you can't just buy Bitcoin anymore. Uh, you actually have to gamble to, to get out of the, uh, permanent underclass.
Anyway, on that note, we're gonna wrap this up. Thank you so much for listening to Block Space Live.
Reminder, we go live every single weekday at 1:00 PM Eastern, run a little over an hour featuring quick hits on AI, data centers, emerging tech, and sometimes we still talk about Bitcoin.
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