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Head to buymeacoffee.com/brazilianreport to find out more. Lula is back.

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[upbeat music] He never really left the center stage of Brazil's political scene, but now, 11 years after leaving the presidency, the center-left icon has formally launched his presidential bid.

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[upbeat music] Just like 20 years ago, when he first won the presidency after three failed attempts, Lula officially enters the race as the front-runner.

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But the challenges he will face for an unprecedented third term are far greater this time around. [upbeat music] My name is Gustavo Ribeiro. I'm the editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report.

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This is Explaining Brazil.

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[upbeat music] Since Brazil became a democracy in the 1980s, Lula has been on the presidential ballot every time except for three occasions: In 2010, when he could no longer run after serving two consecutive terms; in 2014, when his handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff, ran for re-election; and in 2018, when he was in jail.

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But still, even on those occasions, Lula was a core part of the electoral process. Dilma won in 2010 and 2014 largely because she was the person Lula had chosen to replace him.

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And in 2018, the Workers' Party even suggested that Fernando Haddad, a former education minister who was the real candidate, was just a mouthpiece for Lula.

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"Haddad is Lula, Lula is Haddad" was one of the slogans of the campaign.

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Now, with his political rights restored, Lula wants to bring the center-left back to power from where it was removed in 2016 with the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and in 2018 with the win of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro.

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He will run with a conservative running mate, and in his campaign launch, Lula extended a massive olive branch to the center.

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Our guest to explain what to expect from Lula's campaign is Mário Sérgio Lima, a senior Brazil analyst for Medley Advisors. He, like us at The Brazilian Report, tries to explain Brazilian politics to foreign clients.

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Mário Sérgio, thanks for joining us. Thank you. Thank you for having me here. So, Mário, what did you make of Lula's speech?

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Well, it wasn't a, uh, uh, an unusual speech in, in one sense by Lula's term because it was a, a pre, pre-written, uh, speech.

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Uh, but I think that, uh, it was, uh, all in all, not only his speech, but Alckmin's too, it was a successful, uh, start, kickstart of his campaign.

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Uh, not only he did not give any sort of ammunition, uh, to be used by Bolsonaro, but he also laid the,

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the ground of what, uh, will be the theme of this campaign.

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He managed to show that he is the candidate of the, the ample front against Bolsonaro, which was something that people were, were asking of, especially after Biden won the US election.

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It was like, "We need a united front against Bolsonaro." But people always thought that this would come from centrist, uh, candidates, while we actually had Lula doing so.

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So I think it really, uh, he really stood, uh, his ground as the candidate that's gonna be, uh, forefront, the, the, the candidate of a united front.

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Uh, he can use the, the, the discourse on democracy, uh, against Bolsonaro.

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Uh, and he's using a lot of, uh, image that would show, uh, an opposition to what is perceived, uh, of Bolsonaro as a more of a, a, a hate monger. So he's using a lot the word love.

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He's using the, a lot this kind of, of phrasing and, uh, which would, can bring back to when he first won the election, which was the hope.

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And we know the elections can be won and, and, and are won, actually, more using, um- emotions than actually using proposals.

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So all in all, I think it was a very positive event, uh, looking at, at, at it as by Lula's, uh, point of view.

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I've covered presidential events during his time in government, and I've got to say I've rarely, if ever, seen people galvanize spectators as much as Lula is able to do.

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But that comes a lot from him filling the room and improvising along the way. Uh, but this time around, though, like you said, he read from a prepared speech most of the time.

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And that took some of the flair away from the event.

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Still, many saw this as a positive because freestyle Lula was putting his foot in his mouth as of late, like blaming Ukraine for the Russian invasion of its territory or defending legal abortions, which is something that a majority of voters oppose, or talking about regulating the press, which sounds a lot like the caricature of Lula that many unfairly try to paint.

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But will that button-up version of Lula remain, or was it just for this event when all eyes were on him?

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Um, we know that these blunders led to a change in Lula's communication team, but how much can one tame this larger-than-life figure that is Lula? Yes, uh, that's a great question.

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Actually, uh, uh, I have been saying, uh, for a while that this is Lula's election to lose. And like you mentioned, he has been doing-- he, he had been doing a, a very good job into getting, getting to lose the election.

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It was, uh, those speeches, and he- I also mentioned the one that when he said that Bolsonaro like- didn't like people, he liked policemen, which was a, a, a very, uh, unfortunate, uh, dehumanization of police forces.

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Although they might be m- mostly on Bolsonaro's side, uh, you, you, you dehumanized, uh, a group of workers, which is a, a, a major fault when you're thinking about a workers' party, uh, candidate.

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This is why he actually had to apologize. Uh, so I think, of course, he won't be contained, uh, the full campaign. This is really not, uh, as to be expected.

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But at the same time, I think, uh, what PT is probably learning now is that they are facing, uh, an opponent which will pull no punches.

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It's not like I think when PSDB was the biggest, uh, rival that they had, I think at some point

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they-- those were not, uh, completely keen on, uh, excruciating every minutia of a speech to try to move, like I said, uh, earlier, emotions in a campaign, which Bolsonaro is.

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Bolsonaro really wants to do so. And let's be honest, Bolsonaro has, has his own share, and you can say even worse speeches than Lula, way worse speeches than Lula.

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But at the same time, he consolidated a, a, a, a base of voters with those speeches.

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So when heee-- when Lula was-- people was-- people basically trying to say, "Hey, Lula, now that everybody's looking at you in this event, let's not make a mistake on this moment, which is supposed to be a very good moment for you to appear alone, and people, media will be looking at you, will be just showing your speech."

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So at that moment, I think the br- the, the best idea was to imp- to not improvise and to just follow the script. He won't do this, uh, in the whole campaign.

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But at the same time, the-- when they are-- every-everybody's on, in campaign, uh, he probably will be sticking his foot, his foot in his mouth, uh, eventually, but probably Bolsonaro will too.

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So, uh, in that sense, I think it's important for Lula not to, to, uh, give ammunition to his opponents at this moment while he's still, uh, while Bolsonaro is somewhat quiet.

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I mean, aside from all of those, all, all of that dispute against, uh, the Supreme Court and, and using the armed forces, Bolsonaro himself is not being f- as outrageous as he is u- u- usually is.

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So at this moment, I think it's Lula ga- gains on being more, more contained, but that this won't be the case in the election moving forward, I, I, I suppose.

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And you mentioned that the elections are won more on emotion rather than tangible proposals.

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And Lula said things like, quote, "Instead of promises, I present you with the immense legacy of our government," or, quote, "We did a lot, but it is possible to do a lot more." Is nostalgia his only recipe for success?

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I think at some point, you know, there-- he, he has two things going on for him.

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One is, of course, uh, remembering his own government, which is very important as a, as a way to, uh, rekindle the memory to a lot of people on PT and himself, uh, as opposed to what you, you-- people could associate, which was the Dilma's government, which was also PT.

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Uh, one might even say that it was more, more of a PT government than Lula ever was. Uh- But that, that, that government doesn't bring, uh, wouldn't bring ki- uh, rekindled memories for people.

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So, uh, he has that going on, which is, it, it is an important asset. But he's now using, uh, like I said, in, in the kinds of emotions, he's using the fact that he's the greatest, uh, oppositor of Bolsonaro.

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So he's the anti-Bolsonaro of this campaign, uh, as much as Bolsonaro was the anti-PT of the last campaign. So it's going to be when it's the, when we get to the runoff, it's going to be a battle of rejections.

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Uh, and that's why I don't, I re- I really don't think, uh, a lot of issues are going to be discussed because, uh, who... P- people are not really interested in discussing, uh, important economic reforms.

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People are not really interested in discussing even, uh, foreign policy. This is why I think that this Ukraine, uh, slip up wasn't, uh, as dire as you can imagine.

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Uh, it is on, on, on a few more educated groups, but not as a whole of population. So, uh, I think that's... And that's a problem.

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And that's a problem, Adame, that that's a problem because we have a, a lot of situations that need to be tackled, and unfortunately, the campaign will not be the best place for Brazilians to choose who has the better, uh, alternatives for those situation.

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Yeah, I mean, it's like people are less interested in electing someone and more interested in blocking the other guy.

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I, I, I don't, I don't know if this is, stems from the fact that, uh, Bolsonaro, uh, especially, but Lula in, in, in a sense also, they are very polarizing figures.

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Uh, wh- while, while I do not p- uh, put them as, uh, po- polar opposites, not at all. I think Lula is a, a, a center left to a leftist, while Bolsonaro is as, as far right as a candidate could be in Brazil.

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Uh, they are polarizing, which is, means, uh, people either love them or hate them. It's very difficult to be indifferent to each one of those.

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Uh, so yeah, that, that makes, makes the, the, the election more focused in, in, in, in a battle of rejections than a battle of proposals.

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Besides a moderate speech, Lula was borrowing a lot of elements used by the far right, such as the flag and the anthem. Uh, what did you make of that? It has always been a mistake by the left in Brazil.

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Uh, maybe, maybe this is a, this is a common theme around the globe, but, uh, just focusing on Brazil, it has been a lo- a huge mistake from the left to be, uh, fully associated with, uh, more of a, an ideological stance than, than actual...

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Uh, so I mean, the symbolism that the left has been, had been taking to the streets for a, a long period, uh, was a symbolism of Cuban and, and Soviet Union, uh, flags, and the red and all.

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I mean, it, it, it worked when Brazil was actually in a, in a positive economic outlook, uh, with a left-wing, uh, government in place.

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So I mean, it, it probably made sense at that time, but I've, I've always thought that they, they could suffer a lot by abandoning the, the national symbolism. Uh, the national flag, the national anthem.

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Uh, I mean, you, you can say that maybe there, there is a more of a internationalistic, uh, view of, of left-wing, uh, uh, of leftists around the globe, uh, uh, an, an, uh, anti-imperialistic association and all.

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I mean,

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we, we can, we can talk for hours about that, but I think that as a, as a, as a way of present yourself for the common man, for those people that are not really associated with any ideology, you actually lost important, uh, ima- uh, an important imagery that Bolsonaro took, especially when he...

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The, the, the first, uh, w- when we had the impeachment, the Dilma impeachment, people were going with the, the Brazilian national team, uh, jersey, uh, in the streets.

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Uh, it was a, a sea of yellow and yellow and green, and people were chanting, "Our, our flag will never be red." So I mean,

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uh, they, the, the, the groundwork was there, and Bolsonaro was the first one to actually say, "Hey, I stand for those, those symbols."

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Uh, that's why I think it is important for Lula, uh, for the left, uh, as a whole, but I would say even for, uh, more of a center, center-right parties to actually associate themselves with, uh, symbols.

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I don't, I don't, I don't-- I'm not a, a full fan of patriotism. Uh, there, there, the, the... W- once was said that patriotism is the last r- r- refuge of the scoundrel.

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I think, uh, I, I, I wouldn't go as far, but I think it is important for you at least to be even if, if mildly associated with those symbols as to not allow a guy to actually rob the symbols to himself.

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So I think in that sense, it was a smart move by, by Lula's campaign, in which he needs to, uh, move, moving forward, needs to keep on doing so.

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You may have some, some complaints here and there about more of a Radical left-wing supporters, but those, those will vote for Lula eventually.

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So you, you, you really have to, to, to accommodate to the, to the middle ground and not to the, to the radical wings.

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Another thing that caught my attention was the fact that Lula mentioned the word sovereignty or sovereign 29 times. This is often a word that both the far right, sometimes the left like to employ.

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And since almost nothing, uh, if anything, in this kind of speech is random, how would someone interpret this hammering home of sovereignty?

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Is this bait to reach out to people across the aisle, or [laughs] am I reading too much into it? This is a word that has different meanings for different folks, you know? The, uh...

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I think for the right and far right, you know, there's a, a sense of nationalism implied to it, a sense of what some may say, I hate this, this, this kind of, uh, expression because I, I feel like it's void of, of content, but, uh, anti-globalism, uh, which I think it's a, it's a faulty, faulty,

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uh, concept anyway. But for the left, I think when you say, when you use the sovereignty, the, the, this ki- this word kinda means anti-imperialism.

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This word is mostly associated with not, not being, uh, an automatic, uh, satellite of especially the US imperialism.

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So, uh, uh, maybe, maybe, uh, th- this could appeal to the common man, but I think there, there are some, some meanings to the left

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which, uh, it's probably what they were aiming at more than just, just, uh, trying to, to, uh, like I said, like, um, maybe, uh, rob the right wing of some, some,

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some ar- ar- argument.

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Just as 20 years ago when Lula won the presidency for the first time after failing three consecutive times, uh, he sees himself forced to fend off investors' fears over what his economic policies may look like.

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And this is despite an eight-year track record of a moderate government, right? Um, why is Lula so feared by the markets?

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Taking my, my clients as proxy, uh, since I, I have, uh, uh, in the foreign and local investors as clients, I think there are some, some different views.

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Which, which is funny because the, the foreign investors were probably more... They, they would rather have Lula winning than Bolsonaro by a mile. Uh, not that they are completely sold on Lula or anything or...

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Uh, but basically because Lula, at least he's someone that you can predict, you know? Lula has a, he's a, he's a... It makes sense what Lula does, even if you do not agree with what he does.

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The problem with Bolsonaro, the biggest problem with Bolsonaro, f- uh, looking as a, a foreign investor, uh, I'm not looking into democracy. I know we've shown fortunately we know that the, the [laughs]

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, the money doesn't have ideology, uh, or morals. But I think the problem that Bolsonaro is too erratic. That Bolsonaro, uh, is, is a, is a never ever...

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Uh, it's like a, a factory of crisis and which never fails to create another, another crisis. So in that sense, Lula at least is predictable. You actually know what Lula stands for.

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Uh, local investors maybe have a more of a right, right-wing approach.

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And while they may not be completely satisfied with Bolsonaro, at least they, they, some would think that Bolsonaro has a, uh, an economic team that, uh, vies in the right direction, looking into their perspective.

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I think at some point Lula, even though he had, like, those eight years, like you mentioned, which was fiscally responsible as, as they could be,

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not the, the last, the, the last part of the second government was, was not as much. But at, at least the, the, the, the, the first government and the first half of the second.

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I think, uh, he will probably at some point need to, uh, make some sort of, uh,

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show that he has, he has a, a, he, he will have some, some, uh, more responsible economic approach, uh, rather than, than just listening to PT economists.

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But, uh, I don't think that Lula actually thinks that the moment for doing so is the, the, the moment that we are right now. I think he actually thinks, uh, that

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w- this is, this is after he wins the election, uh, if he wins the election, after this, not before. It, it's like you, you don't ne-...

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It's in, it's a different place than 2002 when he actually needed to, to show that he, he could be responsible. Now I think he has a track record.

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Uh, people are mostly demanding him to not rock the boat. Uh, but, uh, I don't think people are expecting him to do so right now. There are concerns, but, uh, I think,

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uh, Bolsonaro himself was, uh, even if you had Paulo Guedes there, which most people would, uh, like where he comes from, I think when you look at what Paulo Guedes and Bolsonaro did, you actually,

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you can't be sure that this is a-- they, they, they come from a government that would do, do a, a good job in terms of economic, uh, approach.

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In discussing his time in prison, Lula said he holds no grudges, and he told supporters that, quote, "We don't have time to waste on hating anyone," and that Brazil needs peace.

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For those who don't remember, Lula was convicted of corruption and money laundering in 2017.

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He was jailed for almost two years, and that prevented him from running for the presidency in 2018, a race in which he was leading in all polls.

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But the verdict was quashed, and the Supreme Court found that the presiding judge, uh, in this case, which is Sérgio Moro, who is another presidential hopeful, albeit a, an inconsistent one, to have been biased.

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Now, saying he has no grudge against Moro is a hell of a U-turn from that fiery Lula we saw over the past few years. Do you buy that? I mean, how much should we take this at face value? Not at all. Not at all.

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Uh, he, he holds grudges. It's, it's, it's, it's important to highlight. I mean, not only he was arrested in what he believes as a, as a, a political, uh, a pre- imprisonment, uh,

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uh, an unfair trial, which he had some vindication when Moro was, was considered biased. But, uh, he, he, he has, he has grudges.

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I mean, uh, you, you have to, to, to remember that while he was in jail, he lost his, his wife and a, and a grandson. Uh, and, uh, the whole,

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uh, leak of-- uh, leakage of messages that show the, the, what we was called as Vaza Jato, which was basically the messages, uh, from one to, to...

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From, from the prosecutors, one another, which basically stood the ground for Moro being considered biased.

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I think you, you know, when you saw that, you actually, uh, reinforced for Lula the kind of hatred that he always felt in some of, uh, eli- elitist's, uh, circles in Brazil.

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So he is, of course, holding grudges. But at some point, I think he actually gains.

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While, uh, Bolsonaro gained a lot in terms of his polls, uh, he, he, his in voting intentions when Moro dropped off the campaign, Lula gained into... He didn't have the guy that actually, uh, he hated.

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I don't think he personally hates Bolsonaro. I think he may despise Bolsonaro.

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Bolsonaro is his rival, but I don't think he-- the kind of hatred that he would feel for Moro and, uh, the Lava Jato prosecutors, uh, is way stronger than what he feels for Bolsonaro.

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And in that sense, he actually gained a, a reason not to be, to be, uh, a, a victim of his own grudges when he's taking into campaign. Uh, but by, by a mile, I think

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he knows he cannot-- he won't have the, the muscle power in Congress or the society to actually, uh, have a, a, a revenge mandate if he wins the election.

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Uh, and this is perfectly clear when he puts Alckmin as his running mate. It's, it's, it's... I think he holds a grudge, but, uh, but, uh, but he can, uh, he can actually be

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less, less, uh, a victim of that sentiment and more of a look forward because the vindication will be in his biography more than actually in his, uh, in hi- in, in his rise to power.

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Now, I wanna talk to you about Geraldo Alckmin, who will be Lula's running mate, to mention him. We did an entire podcast about their alliance, and for those who are interested, we'll link to it in this show's notes.

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But Mario, I'd like to ask you what Alckmin's speech tell us about what his role will be in this campaign? I think, uh, Alckmin's speech was, in my opinion, actually [laughs]

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even better than Lula because he actually laid out-- He-- It was a, a speech that he bared some of the, the ammunition that the opposition would have on, on him becoming the, the, the running mate when he basically put up...

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And I'm not, I'm not quoting this, but, but the, the gist was, uh, it's not like we, we suddenly became, uh, kissing buddies.

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We actually have, uh, put, put ourselves in a place where we need to unite to face a bigger, a bigger, uh, enemy. So in that sense, uh, I think he was, uh, uh...

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It was a very successful, uh...

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And, and, and actually, I think he, uh, he, he not only, uh Uh, weaken the kind of views that people would have for, of, of earlier speeches of him when he was Lula's rival. Nenhuma divergência do passado.

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Nenhuma diferença do presente. But he actually, I think he, he's disarming some of the resistance that is still is very strong within left-wing Lula supporters.

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Nada, absolutamente nada servirá de razão, desculpa ou pretexto para que eu deixe de apoiar e defender com toda a minha convicção a volta de Lula à presidência do Brasil.

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I think it was a, a, a, a very good speech for him, and he will have an important, uh, part, not only into having, in, in the election into trying to ease the, the resistance among some conservative, uh, population that, uh, are not completely sold on Bolsonaro.

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I would mention especially the Catholics and, uh, uh, the, uh, rural, uh, rural, uh, owners, uh, the rural producers.

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But, uh, when, uh, when he become, become, if he becomes the vice president, better, he will have a, a very important role into setting

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a, a coalition for the, the government to actually run the country. It's not a- Lula, I think Lula is smart enough to know that he would really need Alckmin on his side, and even empower Alckmin at some point.

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Because let's face it, Lula is getting old. He-- I don't think that he can, uh, take this, this, his, his career, uh, longer than the first term.

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Maybe try a re-election, but even then I think might be a stretch for him. I think at some point he will need to, to, to use this opportunity to make a,

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uh, a lineage of successors and Alckmin by virtue of, uh, being this kind of rock, uh, among, uh, centrists for, for a coalition will have to be on a, on a, on a situation that Lula might have to consider him a success- successor, which would be a major, a major unfolding.

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But this is not something that we should be counting on for now. This is something for, for four years on if he wins the election. Now let's talk about the state of the race.

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Lula's polling curve has flattened for months in the mid-40s, which of course is a very good place for it to have flattened. President Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is slowly but steadily narrowing the gap between the two.

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Now, we are seeing many banks improving their prospects for the Brazilian economy this year, especially until August, which, I mean, in theory would favor the incumbents.

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Not to mention that Bolsonaro is much more effective on social media, on Telegram, TikTok, uh, where Lula and the Workers' Party are struggling mightily.

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And I know I'm asking you to help predict an immensely volatile and unpredictable election, but how do you see the scenario playing out considering the factors we have at our disposal at this moment?

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What is your base scenario? Well, um, my baseline scenario is still a narrow but a victory nonetheless for Lula.

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Uh, but I, when I say, say a victory, I, I'm saying like, for instance, in valid votes in the second round, we're looking at a 54 to 46, 50-- uh, anything between 55 to 45 to 53 to 47.

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I think it's gonna be very close. Very, very, very close. Uh, but nonetheless, I think he will, he will succeed.

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Mostly I think that because, like you mentioned, he has been stagnated around the 40s, but those are 40% of the votes without considering the, the, the, the people that are going to no votes or the abs- absentees, which, uh, I think when you look at it, we- we're looking at a 45 at least percent of the valid votes in the first round, which is very close of winning the first round.

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While Bolsonaro has been improving, uh, I think he has-- But when you look at it, he really gains so few votes from the first to the second round.

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Uh, of course, the economy improving, and the most important aspect is not GDP or anything like that, because this is not a, uh...

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It's, it's an important data for economists, but it's not what measures, uh, how people are, are satisfied with the government.

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What matters is two things; jobs, and actually being able to pay for, for the things you need.

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So that's, that's infla- That's the inflation perception and not inflation per se, because inflation's probably gonna decelerate, but, uh, it doesn't matter if inflation, the headline inflation is 10 or 7%, if you cannot buy food for your family, it's, it's terrible anyway.

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So I think those two, those two sentiments will play a part. And while they are improving,

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I don't think that they should improve in the magnitude that Bolsonaro needs for, for it to actually overturn Lula. But it is gonna be a close call. What I think, and this is the, this is an important takeaway, uh, that

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Bolsonaro not winning the election doesn't mean... Lula winning the election doesn't mean that he, he will have a, a, a, he will won, w- would have won it all.

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I think Bolsonaro or at least center to center-right backed candidates are poised to make a route in the go- go- gubernatorial elections. So I think Lula would probably face, uh,

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uh, not a friendly, friendly type of environment with the, the candidates that are going to win in the States.

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And I think there are reasons to believe that the Congress, the Congress that we have right now, which is already like skewed to the right, will be even further skewed to the right for the next term, especially because you have, uh, the, the...

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What me and, and Beatriz, which is a, a professor, uh, that we work a lot together, and she mentions, and I fully agree, that, uh, we have this, this, uh, secret budget which is, is something that is, uh, derogatory for democracy.

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And this is probably gonna help the center parties, the centrao parties, which are not ideological per se, to ma- uh, to maintain their stronghold at Congress.

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But I think a lot of, uh, candidates from evangelical churches, uh, ru- rural, the, the rural caucus, they stand to gain, uh, some chairs into this election.

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While PT might, might have a, a higher number of lawmakers, uh, it all comes down to coalition.

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And I think Lula would need to have a lot of those centrists into his coalition, which is, it, it's probably gonna make it very costly to govern, uh, in Brazil.

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It, uh, it doesn't matter, uh, how. So I think it's, uh, it's not, it's not gonna be an easy, easy task for Lula because he won't win. Uh, it's not gonna be a Red Sea in Brazil.

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This, this I, I really think, uh, I think for sure. Bolsonaro may lose, but the, uh, there is a, a, a, a right-wing movement in Brazil now which doesn't, is not afraid of saying so.

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And this is something that's a novelty.

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Mario, before I let you go, I have to ask you about one thing that we at The Brazilian Report have been talking about since at least March of last year, which is the possibility of Jair Bolsonaro trying to barricade himself in office if he loses.

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Nobody doubts that Lula is strong enough to win the presidency, and that he has the inside track in this race as of now. But bizarrely, we are discussing the possibility of a power grab even if he wins.

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Uh, so how likely do you think this scenario is, and what sort of antidote must Lula come up with in order to avoid troubles with him taking office? I mean, if he wins, of course, which is your base scenario.

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It's, uh, one thing I think Bolsonaro will do, uh, he's already laying the ground for this. Uh, this, this whole campaign that he's taken with the help... Uh, I mean, I, I don't think that...

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I, I don't know for sure because you always listen to those military men off the record saying, "We're not gonna go full, full authoritarian at all."

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But, uh, it's, it, it's, it's very clear that Bolsonaro uses the, the armed forces as kind of his own militia. Uh, and, and

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he has been putting guys that are not really ashamed of using the, the institution as a, a, a, as a, as a support for Bolsonaro. So you have guys...

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They are trying, they are doing as m- as most as they can to, to completely discredit the electoral court, to completely discredit the election, to remove the legi- legitimacy of the vote, I think.

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So, uh, I, I, I really think that they will do, he will do a lot of Trump style, uh, stop the steal campaigns. Uh, he will be aided.

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Uh, Trump wasn't, but he will be aided by some, uh, ranked military men into doing so. Uh, and so I mean, there, there are, there are some risks of, of some nasty unfolding.

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But at the same time, I think, uh... And, and they, he has, uh, uh, a group of, uh, crazy die hi- die-hard supporters who wouldn't, and probably are meds now Who probably wouldn't have any, any, any

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trouble, uh, into trying to do a, a, a, some, some kind of, uh, Capitol Hill invasion in, in, after the election.

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So, and I mean, the, the, the, there is a set environment for trouble. But at the same time, I think, uh, Lula has been trying to do what, what would be the antidote?

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I think first of all, Lula has been pulling some, some, some guys, especially guys that have good, good rapport with the armed forces, like, uh, for instance, Nelson Jobim.

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Uh, Nelson Jobim have, actually plays an interesting part because he's also very well connected with the BTG Bank, so he has a position there.

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So at some point, like, uh, the economic power trying to, to use, use his own influence over, uh, over military men to stop the kind of, uh, craziness.

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This, this kind of adventure wouldn't be even guys that vote for Bolsonaro will not, e- even if he gets like 47%, which I think he might, it's not like everybody will be standing behind this kind of shenanigans.

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So, and I also think that Lula is, is doing, uh, some sort of legwork into foreign, foreign powers that could, uh, could n- could somehow, somehow be,

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uh, sup- sup- wouldn't be supportive of any adventure like this.

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So I think you, there are some, some, some, uh, uh, increasing e- elements to believe that the US w- won't be associated with this gu- any kind of coup d'état.

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Uh, I, I think that Lula by virtue of also blinking to Putin, with, it's like neutralizing Russia in this kind of, uh, attempt.

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Uh, Lula has a way better, uh, connection with European, European powers and China. So I, I, I think the antidote would be, uh, a social, a social,

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uh, support for, for the transition of power, uh, using the, some, some elements that have good connection with the armed forces to, uh, make, make people, people the most,

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uh, reasonable of them actually, actually remove them from doing any, any sort of harm.

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And, uh, the support of major, uh, foreign powers into establishing that they want- they will support the transition. So, I mean, uh,

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I think it's, something's gonna happen that's gonna be nasty, but I don't think that this... I, I think anything like this will be shortly. Mario, thank you very much.

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No, yeah, thank you, and I hope I haven't really taken [laughs] a lot of time. You didn't. It, it was great. Thanks a lot, man. Mario Sergio Lima is a senior Brazil analyst for Madley Advisors.

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See you next week. [outro music]